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Slowly Organizing Tropical Storm Erika Prompts Caribbean Watches, Warnings

By: Bob Henson 6:01 AM GMT on August 26, 2015

Tropical Storm Erika is not looking especially fearsome tonight, although it remains a longer-term threat for parts of the southeast U.S. coast and a more immediate concern for the Caribbean. At 11:00 pm EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center placed Erika at 16.0°N, 54.4°W, or about 500 miles east of Antigua. WIth top sustained winds still at minimum tropical-storm strength (40 mph), Erika was moving just north of due west at around 18 mph. That healthy clip has prompted tropical storm warnings for Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten, with tropical storm watches now in place for many other nearby islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Northerly wind shear on Tuesday pushed Erika’s showers and thunderstorms largely to the south of the partially exposed low-level center of circulation. Over the last several hours, a new cluster of storms has popped up closer to the low-level center, perhaps a sign of better organization to come. Erika has a large circulation, evident in the pockets of convection located far away from its center. One large cluster developed more than 500 miles west of Erika’s core on Tuesday afternoon, far enough west to make it visible on Barbados radar (thanks go to the Weather Channel's Stu Ostro for that tidbit). Together with that wide reach, Erika has a broader pool of relatively moist air to draw from than its compact predecessor, Hurricane Danny. The Sarahan layer of dry, dusty air that enveloped Danny is much less pronounced in the vicinity of Erika.


Figure 1. Infrared image from the GOES-East floater satellite, taken at 0445 GMT (12:45 am EDT) on Wednesday, August 26. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Erika’s large size will make it slower to organize and intensify than Danny, while also helping to protect the storm from any rapid decay down the line. Track models are fairly consistent in bringing Erika to the Bahamas by this weekend, but there remain big questions in how much and how quickly Erika will intensify during that time. Model guidance has continued to strengthen Erika only very gradually over the next 2 to 4 days. The most reliable longer-range dynamical models have been pessismistic on Erika’s future, with the 1200 GMT Tuesday runs of the GFS and ECMWF (as well as more recent GFS runs) weakening the storm to an open wave by this weekend. Statistical guidance, which tends to perform the best at intensity beyond about 3 days, suggested at 0000 GMT Wednesday that Erika might be only a strong tropical storm by Day 5 (late Sunday, August 30). Meanwhile, the last several runs of the two top high-resolution models (GFDL and HWRF) have sent Erika into fairly rapid intensification mode by days 4 and 5, when the storm should be over the very warm waters of the Bahamas (more than 30°C or 86°F). Before then, Erika will need to barrel through a ribbon of high-level, shear-producing westerly winds, perhaps a key reason why most models are putting little stock in Erika’s shorter-term future. Interaction with Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola may also be an issue, as Erika is generally predicted to track near or just north of those islands.


Figure 2. The official NHC forecast for Erika as of 11:00 pm EDT on Tuesday, August 25.

Should Erika make it to the Bahamas as a well-organized tropical storm, the picture could change dramatically. This is a very favored spot climatologically for hurricane development, especially in late August and early September. The GFS and ECMWF models from 1200 GMT Tuesday, and the GFS model from 1800 GMT Tuesday, agreed on moving Erika or its remnants toward Florida, as an upper-level ridge builds over and to the northeast of Erika. The 11:00 pm EDT Tuesday forecast from NHC brings Erika to within a half-day of the Florida coast as a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday night, August 30 (see Figure 2). Unlike many systems in recent years, Erika could approach Florida with a weak upper-level trough located well to the west of the state (see Figure 3 below), which would make an immediate recurvature less likely. Putting aside the very valid question of Erika’s durability over the next several days, the overall pattern is the most favorable I’ve seen in a long time for a potential Florida landfall. It has been nearly 10 years since a hurricane has reached Florida’s coastline, the last being Hurricane Wilma (also the nation’s most recent hurricane that was rated Category 3 at landfall on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WInd Scale). Since records began in 1851, this is by far the state’s longest “hurricane drought,” beating out the five hurricane-free seasons from 1980 to 1984. If nothing else, any development of Erika would serve to dislodge any misplaced confidence that the state’s hurricane risk has somehow withered over the last decade.

Jeff Masters will have our next complete tropical roundup on Wednesday.

Bob Henson



Figure X Projected steering flow at the 200-millibar level (about 40,000 feet) from the 1800 GMT Tuesday run of the GFS model, valid at 1800 GMT (2:00 pm EDT) on Sunday, August 30. Image taken from our wundermap with the “Model Data” layer turned on.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 494. Camerooski:

What are the chances of Erika missing PR and Hispanola?
Better than yesterday..jmo
Quoting 489. taco2me61:


Good Morning to you to (((("TIGGER"))))
I know you are ready just in case....
I'm just not sure if this will be ours to
deal with. But the further west "It" goes
the more I have a problem with "It"....

Taco :o)


I canned 8 jars of green beans last night to get them out of the freezer JIC....it is more evident that it will be an east coast event...the question is now, where will the high drop off to....how are the toes btw?
Quoting 491. sar2401:

And, really, for all of us who are subject to hurricanes, it really shouldn't matter what Erika does or does not do. We should have already been prepared for a hurricane impact. The only thing Erika does is emphasize that point, or at least I hope it does.
But time has a way of easing our fears and causing us to grow lax. I am afraid if this ONE waits close till landfall to strengthen, then many will still be in the path and unprepared.
Quoting 446. sar2401:

FWIW, the CMC was taking the storm right over my house in SE Alabama yesterday. Now it's east, in central Georgia. You really have to follow individual models to get a feeling of how they are trending.


The fact there's so much difference in one model from day to day tells you the steering pattern 5 days out is very complicated and they aren't sure exactly what it's going to be and how Erika is going to respond to it based on her strength 5 days out. Should be a fun one to watch, just hope she doesn't get too strong and cause a lot of damage for someone.
If this storm goes to South Florida, that isn't that far from the Yucatan channel vicinity as I was thinking. Now if the ridge were to bridge and block all north movement, it will have no choice but to go more west. Remember when Katrina hit Miami the ridge pushed her SW into the GOM, and don't forget about Rita where it plowed all the way across the GOM because of the ridge and turned slowly into SW Louisiana. Everything is on the line down the road.
Quoting 475. tiggeriffic:



just one of those things that can make life just a little easier to take when you are living the aftermath of a storm...and the milk isn't bad on its own, I just typically use whole milk and the box milk is a reduced fat....and for those of you who have access, the dollar tree stores typically carry the box milk...I take it in our camper too (tiny fridge so need tiny containers lol). I saw someone make a comment about a camping coffee pot...here is another idea for anyone who is a coffee drinker....buy the filters for the tiny coffee pots...put enuf coffee grounds for one cup, pull up the edges and tie it with a piece of string (I use bakers string)....you now have bags (like a tea bag) to make coffee one cup at a time....it is one of the things I do during the storm to keep me busy...by the time the storm is over, I have enough to last a couple weeks lol


Melita funnel type 1-cup coffee makers and French press coffee makers just need hot water. Although the Melitas use a paper filter. After 2004 I bought some more cast iron cook wear as it can be used over a open fire in a worst case situation.
hh still show Erika unorganized
Quoting 500. beell:

12Z 500 mb vort still lagging the lower levels. No apparent improvement over the last 12 hrs per this product.





I guess we could say that is tilted NW (low level) to SE (upper level).
Quoting 458. allancalderini:

Actually 2005 was neutral neither El Nino or la nina.
Look at the chart again, Allen. 2005 was definitely a weak El Nino year. The El Nino was starting to tail off by September of 2005, but the effects of El Nino, as little as they were, was still there.
Quoting 506. Catherdr:



Melita funnel type 1-cup coffee makers and French press coffee makers just need hot water. Although the Melitas use a paper filter. After 2004 I bought some more cast iron cook wear as it can be used over a open fire in a worst case situation.


I have a Melita....I have the filters for it as well....but the things I post are for the last minute prep stuff....for someone who might not have those things...I only got my melita last year....so since hugo I did it the other way...
This site/links may come in handy next week in terms of the track of Erica once it gets to the Bahamas region:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/monitor/





Quoting 491. sar2401:

And, really, for all of us who are subject to hurricanes, it really shouldn't matter what Erika does or does not do. We should have already been prepared for a hurricane impact. The only thing Erika does is emphasize that point, or at least I hope it does.


If anyone is in the cone of doom 3-Days out from landfall come the end of the week, it goes without saying that you need to take this storm seriously in make preparations in case it heads your way.
6z NAM

Emergency checklist

1. PIllow

2. Freeze dried food kit

3. Portable fresh water container

4. Batteries

5. Insect repellent

6. Flashlight

7. Battery operated lantern

8. Solar panel charger for electronic items

9. Rain poncho

10. Sleeping bag

11. Portable battery operated fan

12. Portable battery operated chargeable radio/walkie talkie

13. Water purification tablets

14. Water container/mister purification system

15. Portable camping stove

16. Portable ice kit

17. Water proof matches and lighter

18. Container/ice chest

Quoting 461. hydrus:

Yep, and it is quite a common path for storms that formed in Erika's location..If that does pan out, hopefully it is not a powerful storm. almost all of the most damaging and deadly hurricane have taken that exact path.

Posting this for track, not intensity (I hope)
Is movement still about 280?
Appears that Erika has two centers. The primary one at 16.2 N and 57 W. But, toward the SW -- near 15.4 is perhaps a middle level center. If this is so, then Erika is not very organized. Both centers need to consolidate to make it a more energy efficient storm. Just my observation. Any explanations anyone?
Examples of a ridge


Katrina goes SW then turns north into Central Gulf coast


Rita misses Florida and plows across the entire GOM
Quoting 503. lostinohio:

But time has a way of easing our fears and causing us to grow lax. I am afraid if this ONE waits close till landfall to strengthen, then many will still be in the path and unprepared.
Those are probably the same people who will be stripping the stores on Saturday, and will strip the stores one day before every storm that comes. I really think people who pay attention, and those are the majority of Floridians, at least make some attempt to lay in supplies. Even though it's been 10 years since a major, there have been other less powerful storms that have still affected Florida in the interim. I don't think most people who aren't asleep develop amnesia who that fast. Those that are asleep will always be hopeless.
If anyone needs a tarp for the storm (or future preparations) let me know. I can definitely help out. I manage a major tarp and canopy warehouse. I can get them for almost nothing and hopefully get something to you on time. Message me if you are interested.
Quoting 509. sar2401:

Look at the chart again, Allen. 2005 was definitely a weak El Nino year. The El Nino was starting to tail off by September of 2005, but the effects of El Nino, as little as they were, was still there.


2005 was neutral, progressing into a weak La Nina, the 2004-05 El Nino deteriorated quickly at the end of the winter & early spring of 2005. Using the Oceanic Nino index, the 2004-05 El Nino was over by February in most SST datasets.

OISSTv2 ONI (2000-2015)



HADISST ONI (1990-2015)



Kaplan Extended SST v2 ONI (1990-2015) (Kaplan SSTs (1856-1981) + OISSTv2 (1981-present) degraded to Kaplan SST resolution)



ERSSTv4 ONI
here is another one for ya....

get some empty baby food jars(clean of course)....cut a piece of fine sandpaper to fit inside the lid and glue it in...fill with matches...it is water tight and costs only pennies to make...they also take up very little space so they fit in a purse, back pack, glove box of a car, etc....
525. beell
A stacked storm extending into the mid-levels could allow the more easterly solutions to ultimately verify. A minimum CAT1 would probably get it done. And that seems to be a better than even probability.

As Bob mentioned in his post early this morning;

Erika could approach Florida with a weak upper-level trough located well to the west of the state (see Figure 3 below), which would make an immediate recurvature less likely.
(emphasis added)

Not much probability in missing the T&C's/Bahamas...And those islands are very close to Florida of course. Still bullish on intensification beginning in 48-72 hrs. Weaker steering currents and lower shear. Not to mention the SST's.
Quoting 518. StormHunter53:

Appears that Erika has two centers. The primary one at 16.2 N and 57 W. But, toward the SW -- near 15.4 is perhaps a middle level center. If this is so, then Erika is not very organized. Both centers need to consolidate to make it a more energy efficient storm. Just my observation. Any explanations anyone?
The storm is just tilted because it's not vertically stacked. Makes it appear to have two centers when there's really only one surface center. Yes, that does mean Erika is not ideally organized for intensification. That's why we really haven't seen any yet.
Terry Tomalin, Times Outdoors



Building a hurricane kit is a lot like packing for a wilderness camping trip. You need to be able to survive for several days on your own without any outside assistance.

Store your supplies and gear in a large plastic tote, something that is durable and easily transportable. A cooler with wheels is another good option. Once you unpack your supplies, you have a place to store fresh food if you are lucky enough to find some ice.

You can live for weeks without food, but only a few days without water, so store at least a gallon a day per person. In an emergency, it could take several days to get help, so plan accordingly. Water purification tablets and/or a water filter, will help extend your supply. Electrolyte solution and/or powdered sports drink take up little space and can be a life saver in hot, humid conditions.

Pack freeze-dried or canned food, enough for three days. Dense, high-calorie items are the best choice. A camp stove with extra propane will extend your menu options. Don't forget a manual can opener. A mess kit, plastic eating utensils and a lightweight camp cook set are a great if you have them.

Communication is key in any emergency situation, so pack a battery-powered or hand crank radio. If possible, get one with a NOAA Weather Radio option. Make sure you have extra batteries. Get a waterproof case for your cell phone and a solar charger.

Standard camping equipment, including a flashlight and/or lantern, a signal whistle and mirror, a first aid kit and waterproof matches are also critical. If you need prescription medicine, have at least an extra month's supply. You'll also need insect repellent and sunscreen.

Common household items, such as moist wipes and hand sanitizer, will help with personal hygiene. Paper towels and toilet paper will also prove useful. Other items, including plastic garbage bags, drop cloths, mosquito netting, duct tape and light line and rope can be used to make an emergency shelter if the need arises.

Make sure you pack changes of clothes in a sealed, plastic bag. Include rain gear, and something warm, such as a hooded sweatshirt, in case you find yourself in an air-conditioned shelter. An inflatable mattress, lightweight blankets and/or a sleeping bag and a pillow will make your stay more comfortable. Bring along a small day pack in case you find yourself walking for supplies.
Quoting 525. beell:

A stacked storm extending into the mid-levels could allow the more easterly solutions to ultimately verify. A minimum CAT1 would probably get it done. And that seems to be a better than even probability.

As Bob mention in his post early this morning;

Erika could approach Florida with a weak upper-level trough located well to the west of the state (see Figure 3 below), which would make an immediate recurvature less likely.

Not much probability in missing the T&C's/Bahamas...And those islands are very close to Florida of course. Still bullish on intensification beginning in 48-72 hrs. Weaker steering currents and lower shear. Not to mention the SST's.
Still a good chance of seeing a Cat 2 or 3 landfall in SE FLA
Looks like Erika did put on a little show last night:



Finally covering the LLC with convection - seems that it's managed to mix out the low-mid level dry air it was struggling with yesterday (likely the higher SSTs helping out). Erika might strengthen a little today, but shear will likely keep it in check until it's north of the islands.
Quoting 524. tiggeriffic:

here is another one for ya....

get some empty baby food jars(clean of course)....cut a piece of fine sandpaper to fit inside the lid and glue it in...fill with matches...it is water tight and costs only pennies to make...they also take up very little space so they fit in a purse, back pack, glove box of a car, etc....
And coat the heads with clear nail polish so they'll still light if wet. The sandpaper only works with strike anywhere matches, otherwise you need the striking panel from the box.
HH finding surface winds around 45 mph but they have not sampled some areas with possibly higher winds. May be Erika is a tad stronger.



the wind shear going down fast!
Quoting 522. Webberweather53:



2005 was neutral, progressing into a weak La Nina, the 2004-05 El Nino deteriorated quickly at the end of the winter & early spring of 2005. Using the Oceanic Nino index, the 2004-05 El Nino was over by February in most SST datasets.


I shall bow to your superior knowledge on this one, Eric. I was using Jan Null's chart.
Here are a few storms that went over the islands, doesn't necessarily mean it would flat out die.


Good morning everyone. Erika looks like is missing the tropical forecast points as it heads West.
Quoting 457. Camerooski:

So, if Erika misses Hispaniola i believe there is a chance that Erika can make a Cat 2 or 3 landfall in SE FLA
Could be a 4 or 5 if conditions are right, some models showing this.
Quoting 530. sar2401:

And coat the heads with clear nail polish so they'll still light if wet. The sandpaper only works with strike anywhere matches, otherwise you need the striking panel from the box.


I haven't had an issue with any match that I have bought....as long as the sandpaper is fine grit....I buy them from dollar general, dollar tree, family dollar, etc...where ever I happen to be...and I make these for my camper all the time and haven't had an issue as of yet....idk if I have lucked out as far as strike anywhere or if that is all that is made, or if the fact I use fine grit....
All I'm gonna say is that years that end with a 5 are notorious here in the Atlantic...
Quoting 526. sar2401:
The storm is just tilted because it's not vertically stacked. Makes it appear to have two centers when there's really only one surface center. Yes, that does mean Erika is not ideally organized for intensification. That's why we really haven't seen any yet.

Thanks a million -- now I see that's exactly the case.
Quoting 517. ElConando:

Is movement still about 280?


At 1200 UTC, 26 August 2015, TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (AL05) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.2°N and 56.8°W. The current intensity was 40 kt and the center was moving at 16 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.


Link


i find the center in red
So the Euro has Erika making landfall in Miami as a Cat 1, exits FL at Jax then goes in reverse and enters the GOM at Tampa. Interesting.
Erika is looking better convection wise but that's about it, it's circulation is a mess, broad, and barely closed. Until it can organize its inner core and tighten up that circulation, Erika isn't getting much stronger any time soon. With that said, it is actually closed now unlike yesterday when it had opened up.

This was the worst Cat 1 Hurricane I've seen. 85 mph storm hit my area directly and had wind gusts clocked at 144mph. Our area hadn't seen a direct hit from a hurricane in 20 years and Erin took out a lot of huge older trees, power was out in most places for 1-2 weeks. A metal shed I had in the back yard landed in the front yard going over the house without touching it!

Quoting 534. sar2401:

I shall bow to your superior knowledge on this one, Eric. I was using Jan Null's chart.


Jan Null's chart plots the ERSSTv4 ONI data available through the Climate Prediction Center, this data along with several other datasets show that 2005 was neutral. It can be difficult to ascertain the timing of ENSO events based on this visual alone, it's better to stick to the actual numbers...
Quoting 533. cajunkid:




Emergency management professional in the Northeast here...I know the odds are showing a Florida hit but I do not like seeing a model showing a Delaware landfall. Is that something to seriously keep in the back of my mind right now?
To my very untrained eye....wouldn't Erika need to make a move soon to the wnw to hit the NHC's points? I would think a shift to the W in the models would be forthcoming? And don't slam me for being a west-caster....It's just really cruising along to W pretty quickly...thoughts?
Quoting 546. 69Viking:

This was the worst Cat 1 Hurricane I've seen. 85 mph storm hit my area directly and had wind gusts clocked at 144mph. Our area hadn't seen a direct hit from a hurricane in 20 years and Erin took out a lot of huge older trees, power was out in most places for 1-2 weeks. A metal shed I had in the back yard landed in the front yard going over the house without touching it!



I'm in your area Viking.
Quoting 539. washingtonian115:

All I'm gonna say is that years that end with a 5 are notorious here in the Atlantic...

If you're talking post-1900, only two "5" years, 1905 and 1925 didn't have a significant hurricane(s) hit the US.
552. A4Guy
Quoting 549. cat6band:

To my very untrained eye....wouldn't Erika need to make a move soon to the wnw to hit the NHC's points? I would think a shift to the W in the models would be forthcoming? And don't slam me for being a west-caster....It's just really cruising along to W pretty quickly...thoughts?


You may be looking at the convection - vs. the center of circulation. The convection is displaced to the south and east of the center...so it looks like the storm is well south of the forecast points...but it's not.
That said...it is still moving only slightly north of west.
Quoting 550. j3nnyb3an:


I'm in your area Viking.


I live just West of Hurlburt Field, trying to move East of it, tired of the 98 traffic. I also want to move further away from the water than I am now before another Opal or Ivan hits the area again!
Quoting 543. hurricanes2018:



i find the center in red
do you see the center
Quoting 548. Yurconale:



Emergency management professional in the Northeast here...I know the odds are showing a Florida hit but I do not like seeing a model showing a Delaware landfall. Is that something to seriously keep in the back of my mind right now?


I wouldn't pay much attention to those background grey model runs, pay attention to the colorized ones
I was in Sebastian for Erin, definitely seemed like it was a little bit stronger than a cat 1.

Quoting 546. 69Viking:

This was the worst Cat 1 Hurricane I've seen. 85 mph storm hit my area directly and had wind gusts clocked at 144mph. Our area hadn't seen a direct hit from a hurricane in 20 years and Erin took out a lot of huge older trees, power was out in most places for 1-2 weeks. A metal shed I had in the back yard landed in the front yard going over the house without touching it!



557. A4Guy
To get an idea of the forecast accuracy a couple of days out...when the storm was first named Monday night, at8:00 this morning, she was expected to be at 16.5N/56.4W. Actual coordinates were 16.2N/56.8 - so a little south of where forecast, but a little further west.
Quoting 546. 69Viking:

This was the worst Cat 1 Hurricane I've seen. 85 mph storm hit my area directly and had wind gusts clocked at 144mph. Our area hadn't seen a direct hit from a hurricane in 20 years and Erin took out a lot of huge older trees, power was out in most places for 1-2 weeks. A metal shed I had in the back yard landed in the front yard going over the house without touching it!



It's interesting because years ago I literally had to look up Erin to find out about it, as no one in the area talks about it, it's only Opal, Opal, Opal... But seems like Erin indeed was a solid Cat 1 hit. Apparently they had a nice eye passage in P'cola.

I do know there was a 144mph gust recorded in Opal at Hurlburt Field.
Quoting 548. Yurconale:



Emergency management professional in the Northeast here...I know the odds are showing a Florida hit but I do not like seeing a model showing a Delaware landfall. Is that something to seriously keep in the back of my mind right now?


Honestly, I wouldn't listen to anyone on this blog, aside from the blog Authors of course. They're saying that the steering currents are very favorable for a Florida landfall, I would go with that for now but keep an eye on it as it gets closer.
560. jrb01
Quoting 492. indianrivguy:



one of the very sad things about folks is Wilma came through Monday afternoon.. by dawn the next morning, folks in south Florida were already screaming about FEMA not having any milk for them...


True story. About 3 days after Wilma, I was standing in line at a coffee shop in the morning. The woman in front of me was on her cell phone, complaining to a friend about the tree branch sticking through her kitchen window...."and I can't get anyone out to remove it." Hmm, there's a Home Depot just around the corner. Pretty sure you can get a hand saw for $10 and cut that branch. Maybe some plywood to cover the window too. Sadly, many people in S Florida are just about helpless when it comes to doing things themselves. I'm from the panhandle of the state, and I'll never forget when the eye of Hurricane Erin (1995?) went overhead, we heard chainsaws running. Lol... totally different mentality there.
What!? We need the rain, but not that much. Would that park the system over Florida?
Quoting 544. pensacolastorm:

So the Euro has Erika making landfall in Miami as a Cat 1, exits FL at Jax then goes in reverse and enters the GOM at Tampa. Interesting.
Quoting 530. sar2401:

And coat the heads with clear nail polish so they'll still light if wet. The sandpaper only works with strike anywhere matches, otherwise you need the striking panel from the box.


That is genius
Quoting 553. 69Viking:



I live just West of Hurlburt Field, trying to move East of it, tired of the 98 traffic. I also want to move further away from the water than I am now before another Opal or Ivan hits the area again!

I'm in Wakulla County.
564. jrb01
Quoting 558. opal92nwf:


Apparently they had a nice eye passage in P'cola.


The storm was moving very slowly, and the eye passage lasted a full hour where I was (north edge of Pensacola). It was very surreal.
K8ecane likes the forecast track much better this am ( sorry Fla. and Bahamas and all in the path)
Your so very wrong. Plenty of my neighbors in my east Broward neighborhood were working their tails off clearing areas and helping out anyway the could after Wilma.

Quoting 560. jrb01:



True story. About 3 days after Wilma, I was standing in line at a coffee shop in the morning. The woman in front of me was on her cell phone, complaining to a friend about the tree branch sticking through her kitchen window...."and I can't get anyone out to remove it." Hmm, there's a Home Depot just around the corner. Pretty sure you can get a hand saw for $10 and cut that branch. Maybe some plywood to cover the window too. Sadly, many people in S Florida are just about helpless when it comes to doing things themselves. I'm from the panhandle of the state, and I'll never forget when the eye of Hurricane Erin (1995?) went overhead, we heard chainsaws running. Lol... totally different mentality there.
567. beell
Quoting 528. Camerooski:




Just for the record, you entrained your post in my post @ 525.
Careful!
:)
Erika is weaker..

1008mbs Winds still at a generous 45mph

16.2N 57.4W
Good Morning ladies and Gentlemen as well as students. My name is Brandon brady and I have lived in Palm Beach county for 15 years. I see the complacency in people here because its been 10 years since the last major Hurricane hit here(Wilma October 2005). As a Meteorology student I am excited but as a homeowner I want to leave the State due to high insurance costs and Taxes, as well as high regulations and Red Tape. Some Computer Models indicate a rapid strengthening storm as it approaches the Western Bahamas and perhaps South and Central Florida. I know Hurricane track forecast are only really reliable to about 48 to 60 hours but when you see your area in the Track cone for several days I het excited and worried at the same time. It is a really weird feeling. I know that there are some of you that live in south florida that blog on this site. Maybe we can get together talk about potentially chasing, taking observations or whatever comes to mind. We can discuss Hurricane preparations etc. If anyone wants to contact me. Phone #, email etc please put contact info in my inbox here at wunderground.com
570. MahFL
Quoting 560. jrb01:



True story. About 3 days after Wilma, I was standing in line at a coffee shop in the morning. The woman in front of me was on her cell phone, complaining to a friend about the tree branch sticking through her kitchen window...."and I can't get anyone out to remove it." Hmm, there's a Home Depot just around the corner. Pretty sure you can get a hand saw for $10 and cut that branch. Maybe some plywood to cover the window too. Sadly, many people in S Florida are just about helpless when it comes to doing things themselves. I'm from the panhandle of the state, and I'll never forget when the eye of Hurricane Erin (1995?) went overhead, we heard chainsaws running. Lol... totally different mentality there.


The frontier days are long behind us, of course the tree branch could have been 2 feet thick, depending on the tree type.
Quoting 561. SecretStormNerd:

What!? We need the rain, but not that much. Would that park the system over Florida?



Don't listen to him...anyone who talks about things that a model shows after 5 days and being up to 10 isn't creditable
573. 7544
erika is going to be in the bahamas at 2am sun morning she really like those hours to blossom could be bigger trouble
Quoting 544. pensacolastorm:

So the Euro has Erika making landfall in Miami as a Cat 1, exits FL at Jax then goes in reverse and enters the GOM at Tampa. Interesting.


Yup- Erika must have a reverse gear and a back-up camera.

192 hours-


240 hours-
We might be seeing the beginnings of a COC relocation further south.

12Z runs
Quoting 560. jrb01:



True story. About 3 days after Wilma, I was standing in line at a coffee shop in the morning. The woman in front of me was on her cell phone, complaining to a friend about the tree branch sticking through her kitchen window...."and I can't get anyone out to remove it." Hmm, there's a Home Depot just around the corner. Pretty sure you can get a hand saw for $10 and cut that branch. Maybe some plywood to cover the window too. Sadly, many people in S Florida are just about helpless when it comes to doing things themselves. I'm from the panhandle of the state, and I'll never forget when the eye of Hurricane Erin (1995?) went overhead, we heard chainsaws running. Lol... totally different mentality there.


There are those kind of people in south florida too. After Wilma, a group of neighbors went around my neighborhood and removed trees that were blocking the street with chain saws and using a pickup to move the large branches and trunk away. It was pretty awesome to see. We went from being cut off car wise from leaving our area to all clear in 3 hours.
Quoting 562. win1gamegiantsplease:



That is genius


The camping groups over at Pinterest have millions of genius ideas.. and lots of fun games/distractions
for kids in primitive settings. Camping and hurricane aftermath survival are the same thing, just
different attitudes and planning regimens.
579. MahFL
Quoting 569. WeatherConvoy:

Good Morning ladies and Gentlemen as well as students. My name is Brandon brady and I have lived in Palm Beach county for 15 years. I see the complacency in people here because its been 10 years since the last major Hurricane hit here(Wilma October 2005). As a Meteorology student I am excited but as a homeowner I want to leave the State due to high insurance costs and Taxes, as well as high regulations and Red Tape. Some Computer Models indicate a rapid strengthening storm as it approaches the Western Bahamas and perhaps South and Central Florida. I know Hurricane track forecast are only really reliable to about 48 to 60 hours but when you see your area in the Track cone for several days I het excited and worried at the same time. It is a really weird feeling. I know that there are some of you that live in south florida that blog on this site. Maybe we can get together talk about potentially chasing, taking observations or whatever comes to mind. We can discuss Hurricane preparations etc. If anyone wants to contact me. Phone #, email etc please put contact info in my inbox here at wunderground.com


Well we don't really need to know about your dislike for taxes and red tape, try to stay on topic.
Quoting 574. SavannahStorm:



Yup- Erika must have a reverse gear and a back-up camera.

192 hours-


240 hours-



I wonder if she goes "beep beep beep" in reverse.
Quoting 575. StormTrackerScott:

We might be seeing the beginnings of a COC relocation further south.




doubtful, the HHunters would of spoted it since they are out there and have radar
Quoting 580. pensacolastorm:



I wonder if she goes "beep beep beep" in reverse.


if they had a model that went out 5,842 hours, would you post it and think that will happen? Seriously
Quoting 568. scottsvb:

Erika is weaker..

1008mbs Winds still at a generous 45mph

16.2N 57.4W


Seems as if she has competing centers with maybe a new one forming further south under those thunderstorms. Hard to tell though.
Palm Beach County EOC is currently at level 3...


Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Activation Levels


Level 1 - Full activation. All lead and support agencies are notified. The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, the Executive Policy Group (EPG), all Sections and Branches, their staff, as well as State and Federal representatives.

Level 2 - Partial activation. Selected Emergency Operations Center (EOC) staff are notified. The EOC is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, appropriate Sections, their staff, and outside agencies as required to meet the operational need of the incident.

Level 3 - Monitoring. The Division of Emergency Management (DEM) transitions to this level for incidents or special events that have the potential for escalation. The County Warning Point (CWP), DEM, and/or other emergency management personnel are actively monitoring the incident/event. Notifications are made to appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations that may be required to take action as part of their normal responsibilities.

Level 4 - Normal Operations. This is the normal day-to-day operational level for the Division of Emergency Management (DEM) and the County Warning Point (CWP), which are continuously monitoring local, regional, national, and international events, evaluating threats, and analyzing their impact on Palm Beach County. Appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations are notified and informed through a variety of communication methods based on the urgency required of the incident/event.
Quoting 582. scottsvb:



if they had a model that went out 5,842 hours, would you post it and think that will happen? Seriously


I don't think that will really happen, I just think its funny the Euro model thinks it will.
My favorite hurricane food (which I otherwise do not buy during the year) is the little deviled ham cans (wrapped in paper) that my parents used to buy as well for hurricanes when I was a kid. Love those on a sandwich and always buy about 25 if a hurricane is threatening (and eat them over the next few weeks if not needed). Needless to say with the drought of major hurricane impacts in Florida lately, it has been several years since I bought the cans................Have to pass the tradition down to my kids now if a storm threatens............................ :)
Quoting 572. GeoffreyWPB:


She's not quite stacked perfectly yet, displaced to the SE.  But much better than last night.  She slowed down to 17 mph as well.
Should continue to see very slow gradual improvement to her structure.

I feel like by day 4 or 5 conditions will be ripe for rapid deepening.  As most models show, but the key to that deepening and where it takes place will all be determined if she stays in check up to then.

Looking at this satellite I would say she may be a little ahead of the curve in terms of organization.  Best case scenerio would be stronger short term storm, maybe a CAT 1 / 2 before Puerto Rico, though the islands could take a bump on the chin, it would probably also mean a stronger storm out to sea, instead of a storm riding up the gulf stream and spine of Florida.  That would be horrid.

I have hard time seeing a CAT3 or stronger moving more west than north and once it gets that due north movement with such a strong system, it would nearly be academic, exception being some monster ridge building back west as it's moving north.  Does not happen to often.
Quoting 575. StormTrackerScott:

We might be seeing the beginnings of a COC relocation further south.




I don't think so.. Just needs to get vertically stacked.
Quoting 568. scottsvb:

Erika is weaker..

1008mbs Winds still at a generous 45mph

16.2N 57.4W


It needs to start adapting to a more northern movement, or else its curtain calls over Hispaniola.
Quoting 581. scottsvb:



doubtful, the HHunters would of spoted it since they are out there and have radar


Well if that's the case then there is a mid level swirl displaced from the actual low level center. Looks good on sat but must look like crap @ the surface.
Quoting 559. pipelines:



Honestly, I wouldn't listen to anyone on this blog, aside from the blog Authors of course. They're saying that the steering currents are very favorable for a Florida landfall, I would go with that for now but keep an eye on it as it gets closer.


Figured as much. We're always on alert in the post-Sandy world and I'll continue to keep an eye on this. BTW as far as comments go on blogs, I've lurked here for years and always enjoy the discussions. Thanks all
Quoting 558. opal92nwf:


It's interesting because years ago I literally had to look up Erin to find out about it, as no one in the area talks about it, it's only Opal, Opal, Opal... But seems like Erin indeed was a solid Cat 1 hit. Apparently they had a nice eye passage in P'cola.

I do know there was a 144mph gust recorded in Opal at Hurlburt Field.


There was a nice eye passage in Mary Esther from Erin. I lived just East of Hurlburt at the time and I went outside during the eye passage and saw blue skies for a short time and then the backside hit. All in all it was a pretty cool storm for my first Hurricane experience.

Since I was military we had to evacuate for Opal and the destruction we saw when we returned was amazing. Went with a friend via boat to Destin and to see places like the first floor of AJ's destroyed and filled with sand was amazing, Opal pushed all the sand off the point into the businesses on North side of Destin Harbor, the point itself was gone, you could drive a boat right through it!
Quoting 588. reedzone:



I don't think so.. Just needs to get vertically stacked.


Based on the NHC the COC isn't even under the convection. Mid level swirl south of it should be watched though.
I will say this though... It looks like the blob of convection is moving towards the LLC, which is to the northwest of the mess.. This may be some improvement. Definitely better then last night.
Quoting 590. StormTrackerScott:



Well if that's the case then there is a mid level swirl displaced from the actual low level center. Looks good on sat but must look like crap @ the surface.

Pressure reported is up to 1008mbs.... so it's weaker than yesterday.

Blow up is just above the surface ....and very typical in the tropics with a MLC that forms from them.

It would have to persist for 18-24hrs for it to make it to the surface and still it would have to have a lower pressure than the actual LLC to become dominant.
Looks like ion its current position and track,it will be a far reach to move above the Islands.Watches and warnings may be issued further south.
the LAST thing we need is a center relocation to the south

c'mon people, let's not cheer this on
Quoting 560. jrb01:



True story. About 3 days after Wilma, I was standing in line at a coffee shop in the morning. The woman in front of me was on her cell phone, complaining to a friend about the tree branch sticking through her kitchen window...."and I can't get anyone out to remove it." Hmm, there's a Home Depot just around the corner. Pretty sure you can get a hand saw for $10 and cut that branch. Maybe some plywood to cover the window too. Sadly, many people in S Florida are just about helpless when it comes to doing things themselves. I'm from the panhandle of the state, and I'll never forget when the eye of Hurricane Erin (1995?) went overhead, we heard chainsaws running. Lol... totally different mentality there.


Panhandle resident here too and my wife and I were just talking about this the other day. Seems like this area knows how to handle the storms and recover quickly from them. It's been 10 years since we've seen a hurricane, hopefully we'll make it to 11!
If Erika makes it north of PR and Hispaniola and starts strengthening then we have some issues on our hands and about 2 days to prepare if it stays on the forecast track. For what though, lol. May be some residents in a place they don't want to be in given the late strengthening potential. Seems it would be strengthening, possibly rapidly, right up to landfall. Hoping she doesn't make it here in Jupiter, Fl
603. beell
Quoting 598. aquak9:

the LAST thing we need is a center relocation to the south

c'mon people, let's not cheer this on


IF that were to happen, a stacked system finding a deeper edge to the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. And a higher likelihood of a more eastern solution?

Better?
I am a "gremaso" in surfing it means a rookie. Can anyone with "certain" level of knowledge explain me why the GFS is not interested in Erika, or are the sites I am looking are not the correct ones.

Please advice,

Thanks
Plan of the Day



"edit"
Quoting 596. scottsvb:


Pressure reported is up to 1008mbs.... so it's weaker than yesterday.

Blow up is just above the surface ....and very typical in the tropics with a MLC that forms from them.

It would have to persist for 18-24hrs for it to make it to the surface and still it would have to have a lower pressure than the actual LLC to become dominant.


People get distracted by the convective blow ups, this is a very poorly organized storm.
Winds are only 25-30mph in most areas...few areas are in the 30s and only isolated locations are around 40-45mph...thus it being 45mph storm cause its MAX sustained winds. If this was over the islands right now... most people would think it's a typical breezy rain event that will last 6-12hrs
I think one of the BIG factors is how Erika interacts with the mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. If it goes North of the islands then we could have a very serious situation for the Southeast US. If it does have interaction with the islands then it will be interesting to see how it reacts and what or if it changes the forecast.
Wow, this year is probably is the closest you'll get to Hawaii's version of 2004/2005, wonder if they'll eventually get a hurricane landfall.
Quoting 529. Envoirment:

Looks like Erika did put on a little show last night:



Finally covering the LLC with convection - seems that it's managed to mix out the low-mid level dry air it was struggling with yesterday (likely the higher SSTs helping out). Erika might strengthen a little today, but shear will likely keep it in check until it's north of the islands.


Blobzilla
Quoting 594. reedzone:

I will say this though... It looks like the blob of convection is moving towards the LLC, which is to the northwest of the mess.. This may be some improvement. Definitely better then last night.
Morning reed....I,m hoping the short wave will knock the ridge back and allow this system to recurve...Last thing the U.S. needs is a double landfall from a hurricane. I mention in passing that the intensity forecast has it a cat-1 approaching Florida. If conditions are right, that could increase the chance of a stronger storm..I,m not digging it.
According to Wikipedia (yea I know) Erin was a Cat-2 when it hit the panhandle. I will note that some of the tracks in the wu database aren't updated, for instance look up Andrew (92) and Hazel (54), both are down a category at their first US landfalls according to the tracks. The landfall category listed at the top lefthand corner is correct.
Quoting 606. pipelines:



People get distracted by the convective blow ups, this is a very poorly organized storm.

Much like Ernesto from a couple years ago..
615. MahFL
25 kts of shear is pretty high :

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251457
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 25 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 26/2330Z A. 27/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0305A ERIKA B. AFXXX 0405A ERIKA
C. 26/2230Z C. 27/1100Z
D. 17.4N 59.5W D. 18.0N 62.5W
E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0200Z E. 27/1115Z TO 27/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 28/0000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS AT 26/1800Z AND 27/0600Z
WILL PROVIDE ERIKA FIXES.
B. NOAA'S G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND ERIKA
AT 26/1400Z.

C. NASA'S GLOBAL HAWK WILL DEPART WALLOPS AT 26/1100Z FOR A
24 HR MISSION OVER ERIKA. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000-63,000FT.
POSSIBLE 80 DROPSONDE RELEASES.




II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
Quoting 545. pipelines:

Erika is looking better convection wise but that's about it, it's circulation is a mess, broad, and barely closed. Until it can organize its inner core and tighten up that circulation, Erika isn't getting much stronger any time soon. With that said, it is actually closed now unlike yesterday when it had opened up.




definitely has nothing to the south...
Convection south of center.
Quoting 603. beell:



IF that were to happen, a stacked system finding a deeper edge to the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. And a higher likelihood of a more eastern solution?

Better?

I'll take a stronger, more pole-ward bound storm, yes.
Stacking and more easterly movement? yes.

Weak mess of a mop that decides to get stupid 80 miles off the coast? no thankee.
Erika getting closer...

Live HD cams form 18N 63W :

Live 1


Live 2


Live 3


Quoting 558. opal92nwf:


It's interesting because years ago I literally had to look up Erin to find out about it, as no one in the area talks about it, it's only Opal, Opal, Opal... But seems like Erin indeed was a solid Cat 1 hit. Apparently they had a nice eye passage in P'cola.

I do know there was a 144mph gust recorded in Opal at Hurlburt Field. Erin was later upgraded to a cat 2.
I'm probably going to peninsular Florida on Saturday for a chase. If anyone wants to come, feel free to email me at verykoolguy2002@gmail.com. I know all of you well enough by now to know you aren't going to come to my house and kill me, lol, so I'm fine giving that out publicly.

Gotta let me know soon though.
624. MahFL
Shear relaxes at PR :

Quoting 623. KoritheMan:

I'm probably going to peninsular Florida on Saturday for a chase. If anyone wants to come, feel free to email me at verykoolguy2002@gmail.com. I know all of you well enough by now to know you aren't going to come to my house and kill me, lol, so I'm fine giving that out publicly.

Gotta let me know soon though.
What if the storm comes our way, then you'll stay in Louisiana.
Quoting 560. jrb01:



True story. About 3 days after Wilma, I was standing in line at a coffee shop in the morning. The woman in front of me was on her cell phone, complaining to a friend about the tree branch sticking through her kitchen window...."and I can't get anyone out to remove it." Hmm, there's a Home Depot just around the corner. Pretty sure you can get a hand saw for $10 and cut that branch. Maybe some plywood to cover the window too. Sadly, many people in S Florida are just about helpless when it comes to doing things themselves. I'm from the panhandle of the state, and I'll never forget when the eye of Hurricane Erin (1995?) went overhead, we heard chainsaws running. Lol... totally different mentality there.


This is the problem with confirmation bias. You remember one little detail about one woman 3 days after a hurricane. What about the thousands of residents that were helping out neighbors and cleaning up?

It has nothing to do w/ mentality. People generally help each other in times of need. Always have, always will.
think I might be seeing her LLC again.
Quoting 620. CaribBoy:

Erika getting closer...

Live HD cams form 18N 63W :

Live 1


Live 2


Live 3





Looks like the Baja as it so dry there hardly anything is green.
A. NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS AT 26/1800Z AND 27/0600Z
WILL PROVIDE ERIKA FIXES.
B. NOAA'S G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND ERIKA
AT 26/1400Z.
Next flights.
632. BVI
Watching Ericka very closely in Tortola, BVI.
Most flights cancelled already and ferry services winding down.
Quoting 630. RitaEvac:


DOOOOOMMMM
USAFR RECON last centre fix 16.1N 57.3W overall movement based on current set of vortex fixes I'd say she is moving W-WSW maybe S of Due W

Btw is anyone thinking erika's LLCOC may relocate or reform further S under the stronger convection
Hmm certainly seems a possibility

Anyway Erika should be entering E Carib radar
We are seeing a TS Storm maturing into a,well, u know.
Well I didn't expect much from this hurricane season considering the strong El Nino, but I wake up and see we are in the cone. Time to start planning for a hurricane party!!! (Not a strong hurricane though lol)
https://youtu.be/jGy3kL0mOug
Quoting 615. MahFL:

25 kts of shear is pretty high :




The sheer near the center of convection is actually around 15 kts
Quoting 620. CaribBoy:

Erika getting closer...

Live HD cams form 18N 63W :

Live 1


Live 2


Live 3





You gotta love landing here. Never done it myself... Check out around 1:55 & on...

Link
Quoting 625. HurricaneAndre:

What if the storm comes our way, then you'll stay in Louisiana.


I can't chance on that! Especially since I'm not convinced this won't be the only US hurricane of the season.
Quoting 615. MahFL:

25 kts of shear is pretty high :




big elephant in the room huh. ive' been mentioning that quite a bit.
Quoting 623. KoritheMan:

I'm probably going to peninsular Florida on Saturday for a chase. If anyone wants to come, feel free to email me at verykoolguy2002@gmail.com. I know all of you well enough by now to know you aren't going to come to my house and kill me, lol, so I'm fine giving that out publicly.

Gotta let me know soon though.
See Kori I told nature that if I get my snow this past winter you can get your storm.Looks like its your turn next Kori.
Quoting 635. wunderkidcayman:

USAFR RECON last centre fix 16.1N 57.3W overall movement based on current set of vortex fixes I'd say she is moving W-WSW maybe S of Due W

Btw is anyone thinking erika's LLCOC may relocate or reform further S under the stronger convection
Hmm certainly seems a possibility

Anyway Erika should be entering E Carib radar


Quoting 638. pipelines:



The sheer near the center of convection is actually around 15 kts


that will change very, very soon
Quoting 635. wunderkidcayman:

USAFR RECON last centre fix 16.1N 57.3W overall movement based on current set of vortex fixes I'd say she is moving W-WSW maybe S of Due W

Btw is anyone thinking erika's LLCOC may relocate or reform further S under the stronger convection
Hmm certainly seems a possibility

Anyway Erika should be entering E Carib radar

It's not moving S of due west... reason it's at 16.1 cause of wobbles and it's hard to pin-point where it was last night..It's been moving West or just north of west over the past 12hrs
I bet the cone shifts to the North a little bit for the 11AM update.
Quoting 631. HurricaneAndre:

A. NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS AT 26/1800Z AND 27/0600Z
WILL PROVIDE ERIKA FIXES.
B. NOAA'S G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND ERIKA
AT 26/1400Z.
Next flights.


Also there is NASA DC8 and NASA Global Hawk currently en route

Quoting 613. win1gamegiantsplease:

According to Wikipedia (yea I know) Erin was a Cat-2 when it hit the panhandle. I will note that some of the tracks in the wu database aren't updated, for instance look up Andrew (92) and Hazel (54), both are down a category at their first US landfalls according to the tracks. The landfall category listed at the top lefthand corner is correct.


I believe you're right. When I looked up Gaston, a storm that was re-evaluated as a CAT 1 when it hit N Carolina it is still shown as as a 70 mph TS in that time frame. I suppose the WU archives aren't updated with that information.
I feel like I've seen this convective pattern many times over the past few years with weak tropical systems. Large singular convective blowup from the diurnal maximum, that gradually wanes and dies off by the afternoon. If new convection can form overt the course of the day and help to repair the titled vortex, then great. However, if this current burst wanes and dies off quickly...I would expect another rough 24 hours for Erika.
Quoting 647. scottsvb:


It's not moving S of due west... reason it's at 16.1 cause of wobbles and it's hard to pin-point where it was last night..It's been moving West or just north of west over the past 12hrs


Here's my probability of Erika landfalls.
Caribbean 70%
East coast 40%
Florida 40%
Eastern Gulf Coast 30%
Central Gulf Coast 20%
Western Gulf Coast 10%
Looks like Erika is trying to get better organized in its northern side

Quoting 637. floridastorm:

Well I didn't expect much from this hurricane season considering the strong El Nino, but I wake up and see we are in the cone. Time to start planning for a hurricane party!!! (Not a strong hurricane though lol)
https://youtu.be/jGy3kL0mOug


Darn, I was hoping that was This Bike Is a Pipe Bomb, a band I listened to for a while. They're from Pensacola.
Quoting 623. KoritheMan:

I'm probably going to peninsular Florida on Saturday for a chase. If anyone wants to come, feel free to email me at verykoolguy2002@gmail.com. I know all of you well enough by now to know you aren't going to come to my house and kill me, lol, so I'm fine giving that out publicly.

Gotta let me know soon though.


I may be interested. I am in Cape Coral FL www.swflstorms.com
Quoting 634. Patrap:




It's getting bigger and bigger. Luckily, shear and try air is keeping her from strengthening at a more gradual pace.
660. beell
Quoting 619. aquak9:


I'll take a stronger, more pole-ward bound storm, yes.
Stacking and more easterly movement? yes.

Weak mess of a mop that decides to get stupid 80 miles off the coast? no thankee.


Well...that's always been in the realm of "distinct possibility", yes? Just trying to brighten your day a bit.
:]
Quoting 643. washingtonian115:

See Kori I told nature that if I get my snow this past winter you can get your storm.Looks like its your turn next Kori.


Bring it on! I won't have room for chasing next year.
Atlantic ridge continues to build W and strengthen
Trof weaker and pushing W

Quoting 657. SWFLStorms1:



I may be interested. I am in Cape Coral FL www.swflstorms.com

I'll keep that in mind!
Quoting 655. CaribBoy:

Looks like Erika is trying to get better organized in its northern side


you right, great banding features are developing as well. This is a very beautiful storm now.
Quoting 651. Stormchaser2007:

I feel like I've seen this convective pattern many times over the past few years with weak tropical systems. Large singular convective blowup from the diurnal maximum, that gradually wanes and dies off by the afternoon. If new convection can form overt the course of the day and help to repair the titled vortex, then great. However, if this current burst wanes and dies off quickly...I would expect another rough 24 hours for Erika.


I think you're completely right with that!
Quoting 651. Stormchaser2007:

I feel like I've seen this convective pattern many times over the past few years with weak tropical systems. Large singular convective blowup from the diurnal maximum, that gradually wanes and dies off by the afternoon. If new convection can form overt the course of the day and help to repair the titled vortex, then great. However, if this current burst wanes and dies off quickly...I would expect another rough 24 hours for Erika.


It looks better than it did yesterday morning to be fair. Looks like the LLC is partially exposed and it's easy to see on satellite imagery that it's vertically titled with height.
The CDO is still displaced from the CoC,,,
So many on here are knocking Erika saying that she is poorly organized. Well of course. This was forecast and is forecast. A vertically stacked well organized Tropical Storm with no windshear is what is known as a hurricane.
New NHC track is out and has hurricane inland over FL! WOW!
Quoting 652. wunderkidcayman:






The south side has been the problem side since yesterday, it just can't get that circulation tight.
11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 26
Location: 16.1°N 57.6°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
New NHC Cat 1 inland over SE FL!
Quoting 674. WxLogic:

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 26
Location: 16.1°N 57.6°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


NHC has the track aiming right up FL.
Quoting 652. wunderkidcayman:





wobbles...it's not a overall movement
Quoting 672. StormTrackerScott:

New NHC track is out and has hurricane inland over FL! WOW!


Have been years since I've seen that happening.
Quoting 677. StormTrackerScott:



NHC has the track aiming right up FL.
If the next set of models trend westward, I believe that I will be in the path very soon.
Quoting 680. WxLogic:



Have been years since I've seen that happening.
And it could come my way as well.
Quoting 670. gator23:

So many on here are knocking Erika saying that she is poorly organized. Well of course. This was forecast and is forecast. A vertically stacked well organized Tropical Storm with no windshear is what is known as a hurricane.


no. a vertically stacked well organized Tropical Storm is a tropical storm that is poised to strengthen into a hurricane if the other conditions are there. A tropical storm needs be organized BEFORE it strengthens into a hurricane, stating that Erika isn't organized currently is us saying that it isn't going to strengthen much until it becomes organized.
Shear analyzed by CIMSS at 10.3 m/s or 20 knots...not conducive for anything but stable air entertainment

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 10.3 m/s
Direction : 273.1 deg
This is an interesting quote from the discussion on Erika. I think it is possible due to the poor structure of the system.

An alternative forecast scenario, supported by the GFS model, is
that Erika weakens to a tropical wave due to the shear and
interaction with the Greater Antilles. The amount of strengthening
on days 4-5 will be dependent in part on how Erika responds to the
the preceding unfavorable shear.
Quoting 673. pipelines:



The south side has been the problem side since yesterday, it just can't get that circulation tight.


Maybe trying to redevelop or relocate its LLC down there

Quoting 680. WxLogic:



Have been years since I've seen that happening.


That's just onshore
12z NAM is running

69 hours

Quoting 680. WxLogic:



Have been years since I've seen that happening.


Were getting deeper and deeper into the Cone now as we're in the 4 to 5 day landfall timeframe. Not far away anymore and the NHC's confidence is building with its track.
Quoting 686. wunderkidcayman:



Maybe trying to redevelop or relocate its LLC down there




Not happening... I know you want it to stay south to get to the Caymans...but chances of that happening is like 1%
Quoting 604. ETFRIEND:

I am a "gremaso" in surfing it means a rookie. Can anyone with "certain" level of knowledge explain me why the GFS is not interested in Erika, or are the sites I am looking are not the correct ones.

Please advice,

Thanks


My guess is three or four things working against her:
- She remains very poorly organized, if the convection she had was actually over her circulation, as in a CDO, then she would be considered better organized.
- Shear is high and will remain moderate to high along her path for at least two days.
- While not as much of an issue as it was with Danny, there is still lots if dry and stable air near the islands, and the trade winds will help pump it into Erica's circulation, especially if it remains partially exposed.
- Possible land interaction with PR and Dominica/Hispanola, where the terrain is rather rugged and can tear apart even the strongest of storms.

Barring those, Erika could very well steadily strengthen, as her circulation is vigorous and quite large, she simply needs to fend off the negative impacts until she reaches the Bahamas/ North of PR, as those waters are toasty and the shear relaxes.

Those are the guesses of someone who is fascinated yet not knowledgeable.
Quoting 683. pipelines:



no. a vertically stacked well organized Tropical Storm is a tropical storm that is poised to strengthen into a hurricane if the other conditions are there. A tropical storm needs be organized BEFORE it strengthens into a hurricane, stating that Erika isn't organized currently is us saying that it isn't going to strengthen much until it becomes organized.


Agreed. That is why it is forecast to remain a TS. My comment is in reference to why this is surprising to my fellow bloggers when it has been well forecast.
Thats why we get intensity forecast with a time increment.

One has to look at the chart to see what is coming downstream

Erika will become a Hurricane, in due time.

One just dosen't "wing it",

Quoting 687. scottsvb:



That's just onshore


No NHC has it west of WPB now heading NW up FL @ 120hrs
Quoting 688. ncstorm:

12z NAM is running

69 hours




Nam is useless even if it follows the rest of the models
Quoting 695. StormTrackerScott:



No NHC has it west of WPB now heading NW up FL @ 120hrs


Exactly
wind is KMH

and there goes breakfast.
Thats also why we get a Forecast discussion in every PA. (Public Advisory)


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of
north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Quoting 696. scottsvb:



Nam is useless even if it follows the rest of the models


Did you even read what you just typed..

Quoting 679. HurricaneAndre:




I have been in Florida for 15 hurricane seasons and have a perfect record...no hurricane has ever made landfall near me or impacted me. The 2 years that I didn't live in Florida were 2004 and 2005. I'm not sure the models are accurately reflecting my ability to deflect hurricanes. ;-)
Good discussion with this new advisory package, weighing all the factors.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

Deep convection associated with Erika has increased during the past
24 hours, but the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
not changed very much
. Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
the center is located near the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm
activity due to moderate northwesterly shear. The aircraft has
measured believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt this morning, and
the initial intensity is set at that value.

Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to
strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three
days. The shear will be caused by an upper-level low that is
expected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday. The upper low
is forecast to weaken on Saturday, which should produce a more
conducive upper-level wind pattern over the Bahamas.
The NHC
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength through 72
hours, which is in line with the latest statistical guidance. After
that time, strengthening is indicated due to the expected more
favorable upper-level environment. The official forecast lies
between the more robust HWRF/GFDL and lower statistical guidance.
An alternative forecast scenario, supported by the GFS model, is
that Erika weakens to a tropical wave due to the shear and
interaction with the Greater Antilles.
The amount of strengthening
on days 4-5 will be dependent in part on how Erika responds to the
the preceding unfavorable shear.

The initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt. Erika is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days
to the south of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic.
The track guidance is in good agreement through much of the forecast
period, with the exception of the GFDL model that takes a stronger
storm northwestward much sooner. The new NHC track is essentially
an update of the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of
the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET. This is also in good agreement
with the Florida State Superensemble. One should remember to not
focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range
where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about
180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
704. 7544
how strong is that tia

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
and here's handy-dandy KMH/MPH conversion thingy.

Link
Quoting 686. wunderkidcayman:



Maybe trying to redevelop or relocate its LLC down there



It really looked like that was the case last night. But I woke up and still didn't relocate. Weird storm.
Look away if you're squeamish....its the NAM

81 hours

Quoting 679. HurricaneAndre:


If Erika is this strong, no shutters for me.
Maybe he lives in Virginia Beach and wants Erika going to him?
Hmm

Current advisory
16.1°N 57.6°W

Last advisory
16.2°N 56.8W

Advisory before
16.1°N 56.0°W

Certainly W

Still exposed

Last frame..

84 hours

Been several years since I posted. Rarily even read this blog anymore:I guess the older you get your priorties change.Anyway, this is for Pat@ aqua. the scottsvb that disagrees with everybody on here is our old friend Lefty 420 yall should be able to tell.I always wonder how all us oletimers have mostly disappeared, or changed handles.Just wanted to chime in on this for he is still aggravating as he was in 2005 lol.Anyways good day and God Bless
I was looking at some ensembles and they have some crazy things! One has Erika just off the Delmarva as a 911 mb hurricane. Another has Erika very near Bermuda with a 900 mb pressure.
Forecast position for 120 hours (at the top edge of the 5 day) has it coming in over Miami -- 26.5, 80.5 as Category 1 hurricane.

Seems obvious it will come in over South Florida, and the track will tighten up in the next few days.
Seems like a good forecast from the NHC.Erika is still having problems with her center and nothing will happen in terms of significant strengthening until she gets that under wraps.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2015 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 16:06:40 N Lon : 57:16:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.8mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -64.6C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.8 degrees

************************************************* ***





Quoting 690. opal92nwf:




We might be in the cone of uncertainty by tomorrow!
Quoting 644. pcola57:




If it intensifies, there should be a couple decent jogs to the north..Conditions forecast to be favorable over the Bahamas in 5 days.

Quoting 715. zoomiami:

Forecast position for 120 hours (at the top edge of the 5 day) has it coming in over Miami -- 26.5, 80.5 as Category 1 hurricane.

Seems obvious it will come in over South Florida, and the track will tighten up in the next few days.


If the storm continues that 275-280 track for another 3-4 Hours the track, the forecast track will come left of the current one.

ECMWF ensembles

In the past we have always said to plan for 1 category higher than predicted, as it is easy for the storm to pick up steam in the very warm waters around the gulf stream. The intensity models don't match up to the forecast. Anyone have information about the accuracy? I know the intensity is the hardest part of the forecast.
Lots of bloggers hyping a Cat 1 cane for South Florida lol
Quoting 718. Patrap:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2015 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 16:06:40 N Lon : 57:16:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.8mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -64.6C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.8 degrees

************************************************* ***








Maybe 45 knots at 2pm
726. JRRP
Quoting 705. aquak9:

and here's handy-dandy KMH/MPH conversion thingy.

Link
if things go as planned winds may reach 175 kmh just before or at landfall just to the ne of greater Miami area
Quoting 721. Patrap:



If the storm continues that 275-280 track for another 3-4 Hours the track, the forecast track will come left of the current one.




Would have to be a lot left not to affect the southern tip of Florida.

Quoting 724. mcluvincane:

Lots of bloggers hyping a Cat 1 cane for South Florida lol


Well you know, intensity is the biggest variable.
Quoting 728. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

if things go as planned winds may reach 175 kmh just before or at landfall just to the ne of greater Miami area


As planned, ...?

Where do you garner dat?..
lots of good info on the official NHC discussion:

"Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to
strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three
days."


finally acknowledged that, and:

"One should remember to not
focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range
where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about
180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5."


please. thanks.
Been here for 10 years now. Been quiet for a few years, now Erika has dragged me back in. Time to dust off the old links and fire up the ol' Navy URLs. Stay safe, everyone.
Quoting 721. Patrap:



If the storm continues that 275-280 track for another 3-4 Hours the track, the forecast track will come left of the current one.



Which would put the core of the storm into Miami proper. Not good.
Quoting 729. zoomiami:



Would have to be a lot left not to affect the southern tip of Florida.




No one said dat, but if we use the past as a guide, the 5 day can be off up to 250 miles.

Plus, as we have seen time and time again, the High's nose will be the deciding factor, and when and where Erika comes round it.
Quoting 722. Stormchaser2007:

ECMWF ensembles



This model along with all have a poleward bias, which has been on display thus far with Erika. Very possible Hispaniola landfall. Thoughts?
Quoting 724. mcluvincane:

Lots of bloggers hyping a Cat 1 cane for South Florida lol
if it gets a groove on that may be under forecasted and stronger storm is possible at or on approach to impact region after it beats up baha
Quoting 623. KoritheMan:

I'm probably going to peninsular Florida on Saturday for a chase. If anyone wants to come, feel free to email me at verykoolguy2002@gmail.com. I know all of you well enough by now to know you aren't going to come to my house and kill me, lol, so I'm fine giving that out publicly.

Gotta let me know soon though.


We will see you down here!
On these graphs, which are the models to look for?
Quoting 646. RitaEvac:


Quoting 724. mcluvincane:

Lots of bloggers hyping a Cat 1 cane for South Florida lol

Experience tell us that RI can and does occur right up until landfall. Katrina was initially projected to be a TS when making landfall and became a Cat 1. Andrew was a Cat 3 a few hours before making landfall and finally hit as a Cat 5.
One should remember to not
focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range
where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about
180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5


Now is the time to garner and gather your supplies, check your Evac plan and make ready the things you can do now.
Quoting 740. SecretStormNerd:

On these graphs, which are the models to look for?



Look for the OFCI.
Quoting 650. ElConando:



I believe you're right. When I looked up Gaston, a storm that was re-evaluated as a CAT 1 when it hit N Carolina it is still shown as as a 70 mph TS in that time frame. I suppose the WU archives aren't updated with that information.


I think Gaston hit Charleston SC
745. SLU
Quoting 740. SecretStormNerd:

On these graphs, which are the models to look for?



LGEM, SHIPS, OFCI, and pretty much every model but the GFDL variants.
Based on the 11 a.m. NHC update, it appears that Erika has been moving more west than west-northwest over the past six hours. At 5 a.m., Erika was located at 16.1 N and 56.0 W. The 8 a.m. intermediate advisory placed it at 16.2 N, but the 11 a.m. update placed the center again at 16.1 N and 57.6 W. Either the center has wobbled a bit or the storm's trajectory has nudged a bit to the left. What you guys think?
Quoting 720. hydrus:

If it intensifies, there should be a couple decent jogs to the north..Conditions forecast to be favorable over the Bahamas in 5 days.








Quoting 726. JRRP:




It would appear to be a shift S and W next model run

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/ 144744.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Quoting 741. gator23:


Experience tell us that RI can and does occur right up until landfall. Katrina was initially projected to be a TS when making landfall and became a Cat 1. Andrew was a Cat 3 a few hours before making landfall and finally hit as a Cat 5.


yeah...remember little ol Danny boy with his RI overnight
Quoting 724. mcluvincane:

Lots of bloggers hyping a Cat 1 cane for South Florida lol


Keep in mind a good portion of Florida is well above their average for rainfall. Even a minimal hurricane will cause problems in those areas.
Seems moist near Erika's center. Most impressive moisture in AOI following Erika.
Quoting 736. Patrap:



No one said dat, but if we use the past as a guide, the 5 day can be off up to 250 miles.

Plus, as we have seen time and time again, the High's nose will be the deciding factor, and when and where Erika comes round it.



Absolutely -- and 5 days out can have a large variance.
Quoting 713. SAINTHURRIFAN:

Been several years since I posted. Rarily even read this blog anymore:I guess the older you get your priorties change.Anyway, this is for Pat@ aqua. the scottsvb that disagrees with everybody on here is our old friend Lefty 420 yall should be able to tell.I always wonder how all us oletimers have mostly disappeared, or changed handles.Just wanted to chime in on this for he is still aggravating as he was in 2005 lol.Anyways good day and God Bless


Lefty420? I think you have me mistaken for someone else.

Aggravating, cause I have a degree in Meteorology and get most of these system correct cause I know what I'm talking about? I'm not perfect in predictions but I don't post things 10 days in advance and say " Hey guys, Doom is coming" It's probably why most Mets don't come on here or really none at all. I come on and tell people what is happening and what is most likely to happen. Again, I never had a handle by the name of Lefty420, so you have me mistaken for someone else and Admins can check that I never-ever changed my name tag.
Erika seems to be pulling lots of energy along with her on the sprint from Africa to the Carib. She also looks to be more symmetrical today. I think if she starts consolidating and slowing down just a tad bit, the vertical stacking will occur quickly.

Then she'll line up over some hot water and start to rip. I am starting to feel like no matter how strong she gets, she will definitely be bringing a large amount of tropical energy over Florida.

We still have standing water in the lower flood zones on the west coast of Florida. If this storm comes up into the eastern gulf and lingers around for a bit, it could be tragic.

If it strengthens and grazes the east coast, it could also be mixed blessings for SE FL.

Starting to feel like nothing good is going to come from this storm besides maybe some drought relief in the SE part of FL, but only after a hard hit in the Bahamas. Ominous.
Quoting 744. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think Gaston hit Charleston SC


It did, I experienced it, it was intensifying as it came ashore
Stable air feeding right into the system...if that convective mass dies off then this place will have a completely different tune by tonight.

Where is this flight at.
NOAA'S G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND ERIKA
AT 26/1400Z.
A hurricane coming in at that angle would be devastating.The NHC in the report states that they don't know what the intensity is going to be at that time.As others have noted just prepare and stay on alert while listening to local officials and the NHC.
Quoting 754. zoomiami:



Absolutely -- and 5 days out can have a large variance.


Most definitely.

Why we have a MOD giving Landfall predictions and a Intensity now is beyond me.

But, then again, this is wu.
if leftyy is here
and zoo is here
and rxse7en is here

and STHURRIFAN is here

aw hell.

Nothin' left to do but get refills on the meds.
Quoting 713. SAINTHURRIFAN:

Been several years since I posted. Rarily even read this blog anymore:I guess the older you get your priorties change.Anyway, this is for Pat@ aqua. the scottsvb that disagrees with everybody on here is our old friend Lefty 420 yall should be able to tell.I always wonder how all us oletimers have mostly disappeared, or changed handles.Just wanted to chime in on this for he is still aggravating as he was in 2005 lol.Anyways good day and God Bless


Thanks, I had no idea who that was. Glad some of us still have our original handles and can recognize each other!

This was just updated with Erika heading straight west in the last hours.
Quoting 763. aquak9:

if leftyy is here
and zoo is here
and rxse7en is here

and STHURRIFAN is here

aw hell.

Nothin' left to do but get refills on the meds.


Hi Aqua -- gang's all here -- haven't been serious threats in a while.
Quoting 763. aquak9:

if leftyy is here
and zoo is here
and rxse7en is here

and STHURRIFAN is here

aw hell.

Nothin' left to do but get refills on the meds.


Hi Aqua, yelp I am lurking as much as possible and I am sure even more as the week moves on.
Quoting 737. bballerf50:


This model along with all have a poleward bias, which has been on display thus far with Erika. Very possible Hispaniola landfall. Thoughts?


I think it could miss PR and hit Hispaniola

Quoting 747. StormHunter53:

Based on the 11 a.m. NHC update, it appears that Erika has been moving more west than west-northwest over the past six hours. At 5 a.m., Erika was located at 16.1 N and 56.0 W. The 8 a.m. intermediate advisory placed it at 16.2 N, but the 11 a.m. update placed the center again at 16.1 N and 57.6 W. Either the center has wobbled a bit or the storm's trajectory has nudged a bit to the left. What you guys think?


Yep
west

I think a track on the right side of the NHC center line is more likely than a track on the left. I see a low between Bermuda and North Carolina in some models that would draw Erika northward.
RECON


Erika Reconnaissance in 2015 in the North Atlantic

URNT15 - High-Density Observations (HDOB)
Other Products: Vortex | Sonde | Recco | Radar
Click a mission number to view all the individual decoded messages for that particular mission.

Mission
Number Agency Time Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure Highest Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.) Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind Map
02 AF
AF301 Aug. 26th
14:56:30Z
Wednesday
(Today) 1002.7 mb (29.61 inHg) 46 kts (52.9 mph) 49 kts (56.4 mph) Google Earth Logo Google Earth Plugin Logo
01 AF
AF301 Aug. 25th
23:12:30Z

Tuesday
(Yesterday) 1002.5 mb (29.61 inHg) 41 kts (47.2 mph) 44 kts (50.6 mph) Google Earth Logo Google Earth Plugin Logo
Non-Tasked Messages For This Storm
View all non-tasked missions in the Atlantic in 2015

Missions, such as research missions, that usually have not been tasked by the National Hurricane Center.

Mission
Number Agency Time Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure Highest Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.) Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind Map
WC NOAA
NOAA3 Aug. 26th
12:37:00Z
Wednesday
(Today) 1000.4 mb (29.55 inHg) 41 kts (47.2 mph) 42 kts (48.3 mph) Google Earth Logo Google Earth Plugin Logo
WB NOAA
NOAA3 Aug. 26th
00:09:00Z
Wednesday
(Today) 999.3 mb (29.51 inHg) 42 kts (48.3 mph) 33 kts (38.0 mph) Google Earth Logo Google Earth Plugin Logo
WA NOAA
NOAA9 Aug. 25th
20:29:00Z
Tuesday
(Yesterday) 995.7 mb (29.41 inHg) 37 kts (42.6 mph) - Google Earth Logo Google Earth Plugin Logo
Lots of old timers here...

School must be in session
Quoting 731. Patrap:



As planned, ...?

Where do you garner dat?..
its what I see if shear falls which it will and she gets it stack which she likely will lots of warm waters in the region plus the stream and some models show as high as a c4 well you already know all this and possible outcomes if its just right
Quoting 763. aquak9:

if leftyy is here
and zoo is here
and rxse7en is here

and STHURRIFAN is here

aw hell.

Nothin' left to do but get refills on the meds.
Better make it a double.
Quoting 765. barbamz:


This was just updated with Erika heading straight west.


I called the webmaster at LSU Earth Scan Labs, a friend, and got them to get on the ball ASAP.

Seems they have.
Quoting 761. Patrap:



Most definitely.

Why we have a MOD giving Landfall predictions and a Intensity now is beyond me.

But, then again, this is wu.


I don't feel that being a Mod means that you gave up your right to an opinion as long as it is posted as such.
Quoting 755. scottsvb:



Lefty420? I think you have me mistaken for someone else.

Aggravating, cause I have a degree in Meteorology and get most of these system correct cause I know what I'm talking about? I'm not perfect in predictions but I don't post things 10 days in advance and say " Hey guys, Doom is coming" It's probably why most Mets don't come on here or really none at all. I come on and tell people what is happening and what is most likely to happen. Again, I never had a handle by the name of Lefty420, so you have me mistaken for someone else and Admins can check that I never-ever changed my name tag.


You're aggravating because you are being rude and condescending..Yesterday you asked me what I was smoking which has nothing to do with your "meterology credentials" but your attitude towards most on this blog..

Just calm down and let people post what they want and don't feel like you have to be the information police on here..we get it..you don't like model runs past 72 or 96 or 120 hours (can't keep it straight with you) and clearly not a fan of some models..I think most on here know that even after the first 100 times you have mentioned it this week and today is only Wednesday..

Quoting 762. scottsvb:



name calling time? ha


Your the one starting this foolishness

Quoting 765. barbamz:


This was just updated with Erika heading straight west.


Yep

Hmm in a way seems to be following in Danny's footsteps
779. JRRP
Quoting 745. SLU:



south of 16n?
The average NHC track error is ~250 miles at 5 days, don't focus on the center of the cone, especially this far in advance. In all likelihood, the ultimate track (& intensity for that matter) of Erika will deviate in some way, shape, or form from the center of the cone, and the impacts from this TC will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation.

You don't have to go back very far to see how the NHC forecasts have verified w/ the center of the cone depicting a hurricane over South Florida in 5 days. Caution needs to be exercised wrt interpreting NHC forecasts, especially in this case...

Isaac (2012)



Irene (2011)



Ike (2008)

Missed among model arguments, westward wobbling, RIP; is this .....

Some of the WU 'old guard' that I pay attention to quite a bit, are talking about putting their Hurricane plans in place.

If I were in FL, MS, LA, AL, GA....I'd be doing the same.
Quoting 776. ncstorm:



You're aggravating because you are being rude and condescending..Yesterday you asked me what I was smoking which has nothing to do with your "meterology credentials" but your attitude towards most on this blog..

Just calm down and let people post what they want and don't feel like you have to be the information police on here..we get it..you don't like model runs past 72 or 96 or 120 hours (can't keep it straight with you) and clearly not a fan of some models..I think most on here know that even after the first 100 times you have mentioned it this week and today is only Wednesday..





Kamel Red 100s for me...non menthol. Gonna need em this week for following this blog
This aint no Danny size storm

"Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles"
From:
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

"Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to
strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three
days. The shear will be caused by an upper-level low that is
expected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday. "

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

I see no "1 s" on here in the kt forecast. Good deal.
Quoting 778. seflagamma:

all we need now is for StormTop to come out of hiding..... actually should have typed this

ALL WE NEED NOW IS FOR STORMTOP TO COME OUT OF HIDING!!!!
he has been here all the while just as someone else maybe
Quoting 783. K8eCane:




Kamel Red 100s for me...non menthol. Gonna need em this week for following this blog


LOL..I'm pretty sure he wasn't talking about those kind of smokes..
First mention of Erika in my forecast discussion
_________________________________________________ ________________________

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
947 am EDT Wednesday Aug 26 2015

Long term [friday night through wednesday]...

The upper low over the southeast will absorb back into the mean
northern stream flow by Sunday, advancing a shortwave northeast
across the eastern Continental U.S.. however, the wave that helped to absorb
the previous pv anomaly will become separated from the mean flow
and linger across the eastern half of the country through
Wednesday. Essentially, broad troughing aloft will remain in
place across the region, with a ridge nosing in over the Florida
Peninsula.
At the surface, a rather weak pressure pattern will
exist, with above average rain chances in the seabreeze and non-
seabreeze storms driven by the low aloft. By Sunday, Erika will be
nearing Southeast Florida, there remains a fair amount of
uncertainty wrt the track forecast beyond Sunday. If it remains
on the east side of Florida, we'll experience a drier start to
next week than if it were to go west. Stay tuned...
Quoting 745. SLU:


Getting stronger?
This will be a very interesting week .....
Quoting 777. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm in a way seems to be following in Danny's footsteps

And Erika's western side now gets flattened due to shear like it happened to Danny at the same place, if memory serves me right.
So whose got a satellite link to that wave that came off Africa yesterday? Not much talk about it today, did it fizzle?
Quoting 780. Webberweather53:

The average NHC track error is ~250 miles at 5 days, don't focus on the center of the cone, especially this far in advance. In all likelihood, the ultimate track (& intensity for that matter) of Erika will deviate in some way, shape, or form from the center of the cone, and the impacts from this TC will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation.

You don't have to go back very far to see how the NHC forecasts have verified w/ the center of the cone depicting a hurricane over South Florida in 5 days. Caution needs to be exercised wrt interpreting NHC forecasts, especially in this case...

Isaac (2012)



Irene (2011)



Ike (2008)




Isaac went to new Orleans mississipi area and Irene went up the east coast....interesting
Hello from central Florida(near Disney). Long time lurker and just want to say thanks to all the great info you guys give us weather lovers like myself! Watching and learning 😊
So, this Low line with cool air will not repel Erika? Why, cause it will stall? Looks like it is advancing on FL.
Many have hit this wall in recent years, see what happens I guess.
Funny how Erika from 2009 was also struggling in the same place with multiple center problems along with high shear and dry air.


(This is Erika from 2009 by the way)
Quoting 780. Webberweather53:

The average NHC track error is ~250 miles at 5 days, don't focus on the center of the cone, especially this far in advance. In all likelihood, the ultimate track (& intensity for that matter) of Erika will deviate in some way, shape, or form from the center of the cone, and the impacts from this TC will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation.

You don't have to go back very far to see how the NHC forecasts have verified w/ the center of the cone depicting a hurricane over South Florida in 5 days. Caution needs to be exercised wrt interpreting NHC forecasts, especially in this case...


That's why I joke that sometimes the safest place to be is right under the "H" on day 5 of the 5-day cone of error.

(And howdy to all the other old schoolers out here who have been in lurking mode like me).
Quoting 784. RitaEvac:

This aint no Danny size storm

"Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles"


That's like... 10 Danny's!!

I've seen too many models with that track on Florida end up going to the Carolinas or west to LA/TX. No reason to panic, but definitely no reason to write any solution off. Fortunately, the conditions are not lined up as they were when these models were incorrect in their 5 day forecasts in previous seasons, imo.

PS. those of you fighting need to chill, why the digital ego on a weather model? People come here for weather discussion and the occasional laugh, not dramatic performance art.
Erika Short Floater - Visible Imagery Loop

ZOOM and controls are ACTIVE,
Quoting 780. Webberweather53:

The average NHC track error is ~250 miles at 5 days, don't focus on the center of the cone, especially this far in advance. In all likelihood, the ultimate track (& intensity for that matter) of Erika will deviate in some way, shape, or form from the center of the cone, and the impacts from this TC will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation.

You don't have to go back very far to see how the NHC forecasts have verified w/ the center of the cone depicting a hurricane over South Florida in 5 days. Caution needs to be exercised wrt interpreting NHC forecasts, especially in this case...


Surely you're not implying the National Hurricane Center in Miami is wishcasting? :)
806. TXCWC
Quoting 740. SecretStormNerd:

On these graphs, which are the models to look for?



HWFI (hi-res track model) / AVNI (GFS Operational) / LGEM & SHIP / OFCI (NHC Offical plot)...make note the OFCI lies directly between the HWFI & AVNI and close to the LGEM & SHIP ;)

img src="">
Quoting 798. Starhopper:

So, this Low line with cool air will not repel Erika? Why, cause it will stall? Looks like it is advancing on FL.
Many have hit this wall in recent years, see what happens I guess.



It is just fantastic Gaw-jus here today behind the front.
Quoting 803. Patrap:

Erika Short Floater - Visible Imagery Loop

ZOOM and controls are ACTIVE,
Thanks, Pat.
Here is the relative position of the TUTT cell out ahead of Erika; does not look as bad as the one Danny passed through unless it closes in from the East or West but it will be almost impossible to generate nice looking and moist banding with this squeeze play on both sides:

811. MahFL
"120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND"

Hmm that's inland SE Florida....
Florida's streak could continue! may go left may go right of Florida.
Rainbow Loop



Quoting 800. washingtonian115:

Funny how Erika from 2009 was also struggling in the same place with multiple center problems along with high shear and dry air.


(This is Erika from 2009 by the way)


WOW, spitting image of today's Erika.. The only difference is, this Erika has more model support while the one in 2009 had little model support. Also to note the EURO killed 2009s Erika while the model develops this years Erika. Very interesting image though.
Quoting 798. Starhopper:

So, this Low line with cool air will not repel Erika? Why, cause it will stall? Looks like it is advancing on FL.
Many have hit this wall in recent years, see what happens I guess.



From NWS Tampa
.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST HELPING TO LIFT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW
STRONG ERIKA WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS IS KEEPING
ERIKA WEAK AND MORE OF A WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS/NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF KEEP IT STRONGER. AT THE PRESENT
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS STILL BRINGING ERIKA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SO
STAY TUNED AS THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST
ANYTIME...BUT BEST CHANCES ON LAND SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. AT THE PRESENT TIME HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...IF ERIKA IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE FORECAST THEN
SUNDAY COULD BE A RATHER DRY DAY AS WE WOULD BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
ZONE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 804. weathergirl2001:



Surely you're not implying the National Hurricane Center in Miami is wishcasting? :)


"centercasting"
Picked up another 1.69" yesterday. Ahhh, it's delicious.
Tropical Storm ERIKA
11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 26 2015
Location: 16.1°N 57.6°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
anyone know where i can find links to the GFS and ensemble runs?
Quoting 780. Webberweather53:

The average NHC track error is ~250 miles at 5 days, don't focus on the center of the cone, especially this far in advance. In all likelihood, the ultimate track (& intensity for that matter) of Erika will deviate in some way, shape, or form from the center of the cone, and the impacts from this TC will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation.

You don't have to go back very far to see how the NHC forecasts have verified w/ the center of the cone depicting a hurricane over South Florida in 5 days. Caution needs to be exercised wrt interpreting NHC forecasts, especially in this case...

Isaac (2012)



Irene (2011)



Ike (2008)




Exhibit A as to why Floridians are complacent and almost cocky when it comes to tropical systems. "They never come/captain trough"
Quoting 792. 69Viking:

So whose got a satellite link to that wave that came off Africa yesterday? Not much talk about it today, did it fizzle?
it fizzle just like always once over water
24 hrs from now may regain itself maybe

Quoting 799. Cat5WPB:



Or StormW.....but I heard we took a management role at Dr. Scholls


StormW always put out good information though, while StormTop threw out every forecast and said it was SO, IT HAD TO BE SO!! - no matter what anyone said! What about Presslord too? Crazy fun all those years ago...
Quoting 824. ScooterXX7:



Exhibit A as to why Floridians are complacent and almost cocky when it comes to tropical systems. "They never come/captain trough"
Yes. except for Wilma. And Andrew. And Charley. And the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. And Donna. And Cleo. And the 1926 Miami Hurricane. And the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. And Dora. And Eloise. And Elena. And Opal. And David. And Jeanne. And Francis. And Dennis. And Ivan. And Katrina. And King. And all the other ones pictured here:



Yeah, anyone who is complacent because "they never come" is, for lack of a better word, an imbecile.
Quoting 826. SFLstevez1:



StormW always put out good information though, while StormTop threw out every forecast and said it was SO, IT HAD TO BE SO!! - no matter what anyone said! What about Presslord too? Crazy fun all those years ago...


dude, you're the ultimate lurker. 2005 register date, 5 posts? the #GOAT
Quoting 820. Patrap:




i place the possibility of naked swirl at 60% in the PM EST
Quoting 637. floridastorm:

Well I didn't expect much from this hurricane season considering the strong El Nino, but I wake up and see we are in the cone. Time to start planning for a hurricane party!!! (Not a strong hurricane though lol)
https://youtu.be/jGy3kL0mOug



Considering how far out Erika is, I wouldn't start to worry about a Fl hit unless the models still show it in another 2 or 3 days.
It's moving quick in here so I'll repost it..New Blog!!!

Quoting 817. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 807. Patrap:



It is just fantastic Gaw-jus here today behind the front.
Indeed. It was 52 degrees here this morning. Miss the record low for the date by 2 degrees set in 1958.
Quoting 771. Stormchaser2007:

Lots of old timers here...

School must be in session
How old is old.?.
Quoting 800. washingtonian115:

Funny how Erika from 2009 was also struggling in the same place with multiple center problems along with high shear and dry air.


(This is Erika from 2009 by the way)

That's really interesting!!!
.
Ive been on this blog for years. I live in Wilmington NC. Im enjoying all the doomsday forecasting. Especially ones that say Erika is a definite to hit here as a cat 3 storm. Just sitting back having a cold one and watching the show. Want to know where the storm is going and what its gonna do? No idea...lol..Lets see where and what she is left of after the next 48 hours. You can toss everything out until then
Been on this blog for years. I don't post that often. Sitting back having a cold one and watching all the predictions from its gonna be a CAT 5 to its going to hit Wilmington NC as a Cat 3. I live in Wilmington. No thanks. As for this storm anything beyond the next 48 hrs is crap shoot. Lets see what interaction the storm has with the islands and whats left after and go form there. Still enjoy patrap Dak and other posters in here. Enjoy the show! :)
Been on this blog for years. I don't post that often. Sitting back having a cold one and watching all the predictions from its gonna be a CAT 5 to its going to hit Wilmington NC as a Cat 3. I live in Wilmington. No thanks. As for this storm anything beyond the next 48 hrs is crap shoot. Lets see what interaction the storm has with the islands and whats left after and go form there. Still enjoy patrap Dak and other posters in here. Enjoy the show! :)