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Sixteen National/Territorial All-Time Extreme Heat Records Set in 2015

By: Jeff Masters 4:23 PM GMT on January 27, 2016

In addition to being the warmest year on record when averaged over the entire globe, 2015 was also notable for all-time extreme heat records. Sixteen nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2015, and two (Israel and Cyprus) set all-time cold temperature records. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page.



Notable global heat and cold records set or tied in 2015
Hottest temperature in the world in 2015: 52.8°C (127.0°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait on July 30
Coldest temperature in the world in 2015: -82.9°C (-117.2°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, September 13
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere in 2015: 49.2°C (120.6°F) at Reobourne Airport, Australia, February 21
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere in 2015: -63.8°C (-82.4°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, December 16

Number of major worldwide stations with at least 40 years of records that recorded their highest all-time temperature in 2015: 293 (for comparison, this number was 198 in 2014.)

Number of major worldwide stations with at least 40 years of records that recorded their lowest all-time temperature in 2015: 13 (for comparison, this number was 15 in 2014.)

- On February 21, Wittenoom, Australia recorded a minimum temperature of 35.1°C, which is a new world record of highest minimum temperature for the month of February.

- On March 24, Esperanza Base recorded 17.5°C, which is the highest temperature ever recorded in the Antarctic mainland and second in Antarctica only to the Signy Island record of 19.8°C. Signy Island is located far away from mainland Antarctica, and is just below the conventional latitude of 60°S.

- On July 26, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -30.7°C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in July in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -30.5°C at the Mt McKinley AWS, Alaska, U.S.

- On August 27, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -43.5°C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in August in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -43.4°C at Cathy AWS, Greenland.

- On October 24, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -60.0°C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in October in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -57.8°C at Northgrip, Greenland.

- On October 27, Vredendal in South Africa recorded 48.4°C, which is a new world record of highest temperature for the month of October.

- For the year, Coro in Venezuela recorded a yearly average temperature of 30.5°C (86.9°F), which is the hottest ever recorded anywhere in the Americas. It is also one of the highest average yearly temperatures ever recorded in the world outside the area of the Red Sea (lowlands/depressions/coasts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somaliland, Saudi Arabia, Yemen). Outside of that area, only Bangkok Klong Thoey Station had a higher yearly average temperature: 30.7°C in 1998.

All-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
French Guiana set its national heat record on November 3, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Saint Laurent du Moroni.
Indonesia tied its national heat record on October 28, when the mercury hit 39.5°C (103.1°F) at Semarang Airport.
Anguilla set its national heat record on October 10, when the mercury hit 34.2°C (93.6°F) at The Valley Airport. This was the 3rd time in 2015 Anguilla broke its all-time heat record.
Saint Barthélemy set its national heat record on October 5, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Gustavia.
Dominica set its national heat record on October 4, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Canefield Airport. That tied the record set the previous day.
The U.S. Virgin Islands set their national heat record on September 11, when the mercury hit 35.6°C (96°F) at Charlotte Amalie Airport. Note: the unofficial record listed by NOAA for the U.S. Virgin Islands is 99°F at the Charlotte Amalie Airport in 1988, 1994, and 1996. Mr. Herrera has researched the history of temperature measurements in the islands, and found that data taken at this airport was generally reliable after 1998 and before 1972. Between 1972 to 1998, the data was seriously flawed, with minimum temperatures up to 20°F from the real temperature.
Hong Kong set its national heat record on August 8, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.
Germany set a new national heat record of 40.3°C (104.5°F) twice in 2015: on July 5 and on August 7, both at the Kitzingen station in Bavaria.
Vietnam tied its national heat record of 42.7°C (108.9°F) at Con Cuong on May 30.
Palau tied its national heat record of 34.4°C (94.0°F) at Koror Airport on May 14.
Venezuela set a new national heat record of 43.6°C (110.5°F) at Coro on April 29.
Laos tied its national heat record of 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Thakhek on April 20.
Ghana set a new national heat record of 43.3°C (109.9°F) at Navrongo on April 10. This was the third time in 2015 that Ghana tied or set a new all-time heat record.
Cocos Islands (Australian territory) tied their all-time heat record with 32.8°C (91.0°F) on April 8.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 18.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.

Special Mentions:
Antarctica set a new heat record for its mainland of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has appointed a committee to study this event and determine if this represents an official record for the continent. Note that this is a record for mainland Antarctica, not a territorial or continental record. The all-time maximum record for the continent and territory of Antarctica is 19.8°C (67.6°F) on January 30, 1982, in Signy Island, South Orkney, an island group located about 450 miles northeast of the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost portion of mainland Antarctica. Geologically, the South Orkney are on the Antarctic plate, and politically, they are part of Antarctica.

Switzerland had its highest reliably measured temperature on record in Geneva on July 7, when the mercury hit 103.5°F (39.7°C). The only higher temperature ever measured in the country was a 106.7°F (41.5°C) reading on August 11, 2003 at Grono. As reported at the Swiss news site swissinfo.ch, this old record was achieved "using an old measurement technique of weather huts, which generally recorded temperatures a few degrees higher than modern instruments." Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera agrees that this year's 39.7°C reading in Geneva is the highest reliably measured temperature ever in Switzerland, though the August 11, 2003 temperature at Grono was probably warmer (near 40°C), after correcting for the known problems with the site.

Samoa was originally listed by Mr. Herrera as tying its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau, but a subsequent review of the record revealed possible issues with the measurement equipment, so this record is dubious.

All-time national and territorial cold records set in 2015
Israel set a new national cold record of -14.2°C (6.4°F) at Merom Golan on January 10.
Cyprus set a new national cold record for an inhabited place of -10.7°C (12.7°F) at Prodromos on January 9.

Special Mention:
Oman set an unofficial all-time cold record of -9.7°C (14.5°F) on January 20 at Jabal Shamas. The station is located on the top of a mountain above 3000m with no living population, and its time series is very short. Therefore, the record should be considered unofficial. The lowest temperature ever recorded in Oman in any representative station is -3.6°C (25.5°F) recorded at Sayq on January 26 1983. 

A big thanks goes to Maximiliano Herrera for providing the information in this post.

Jeff Masters

Heat Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2016, the Year the Human induced Climate Change Forcing's begin to deliver the pain.


Thanks Dr. Masters.

seems below average to start off the new yr.
Meanwhile in Florida, El Nino's effects has been in full swing, and continues to pummel the state.






1120 AM TORNADO 13 NW WESTON 26.26N 80.52W
01/27/2016 BROWARD FL NWS EMPLOYEE

LIKELY DEBRIS SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR
KAMX FROM 1113 AM TO 1120 AM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ROTATING STORM IN EVERGLADES OF NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTY.



Earlier today:

0930 AM TORNADO 2 SE COCONUT CREEK 26.24N 80.17W
01/27/2016 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** REPORTS FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES OF DAMAGE
FROM AN APPARENT TORNADO IN THE WYNMOOR BROWARD COLLEGE
NORTH CAMPUS AREAS. A FEW CARS LIFTED AND FLIPPED
OVER... SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO AN APARTMENT BUILDING IN THE
WYNMOOR COMMUNITY. TRACTOR-TRAILER FLIPPED OVER ON
TURNPIKE NEAR COCONUT CREEK PARKWAY IN SAME AREA. AT
LEAST ONE PERSON TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITAL WITH NON-LIFE
THREATENING INJURIES.
Double post - my computer is so slow today
Thank You Dr. In looking over the stats, I would note that may scientists have predicted for years now that a good portion of effects of global warming would be felt in the Northern Hemisphere (due to Arctic melt issues) and we are also seeing many equatorial regions of the Earth (where the world is always the warmest) also setting several heat records.

I was corrected yesterday, when I noted that February was usually the coldest month in North Florida (by my personal experience here) that for Conus, January is usually the coldest overall month..............I was just outside and the current temp here in Tallahassee (with the sun out) is 69.

And here is the post from the Tally NWS Office at the top of their website for 2015:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1132 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2016

...2015 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR TALLAHASSEE...

2015 WAS OFFICIALLY THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT TALLAHASSEE...
SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1933 BY 0.7 DEGREES. THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE IS 67.8 DEGREES AND 2015 WAS
4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT 71.8 DEGREES.







Thanks for the update Mr Masters. And to Maximiliano Herrera as well.
Numbers are so overwhelming, but one thing strikes me, and it has to do with Greenland:

"- On July 26, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -30.7C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in July in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -30.5C at the Mt McKinley AWS, Alaska, U.S.

- On August 27, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -43.5C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in August in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -43.4C at Cathy AWS, Greenland.

- On October 24, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -60.0C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in October in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -57.8C at Northgrip, Greenland."


Could it be related to the meltwater from Greenland acting as a lid spread over the ocean, slowing the downwelling part of the current around there (as well as turning the area colder, as the map of last year's global anomalies show) or are there other much more influent patterns/oscillations at work? I was maybe thinking, after the demise of the arctic summer ocean ice, the "climatologically" coldest part, the meteorologic. pole could shift more towards Greenland and Eastern Siberia than the original north pole (hence the very high temps over the North Pole in the last weeks) ; or am I on a false lead there?
Gee whiz,..

: P
January 24, 2016: MODIS true color image of NE United States snowfall coverage from Winter Storm Jonas.



Larger Window
No we're back to the same boring weather pattern.Hey Cariboy lets trade places :)
Quoting 4. 882MB:

Meanwhile in Florida, El Nino's effects has been in full swing, and continues to pummel the state.




Good morning all! We're already close to 3 inches here in West Boca! Not to mention the numerous severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Whenever I see someone make the comment that this El Niño is a bust, I give a little giggle! This El Niño is definitely not a bust here!
Back to the current stats for this day in January 2016:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast DatabaseInfrared Satellite Image
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Quoting 4. 882MB:

Meanwhile in Florida, El Nino's effects has been in full swing, and continues to pummel the state.




Er, a small part of the State, 1/10th inch here in NE FL. The sun even came out earlier.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
thanks for the lunch time read doc

I believe very little will be done to solve our global problem and warmer years lay ahead for us all

Thanks dok!

On another note....
2.25 inches since last night at my location E of Naples, FL.
Quoting 10. weatherwitt:



Please tell me what your probably false statistic has to do in a discussion/post about climate change.
There's only one answer to the post you quote (which, BTW, has already been removed) ;

AFLAC!!

It's brief, but strangely cogent. To the point, but actually has no point whatsoever. It's the perfect answer to posts that make no sense.
Storm still in the forecast for Sunday per NWS San Diego

Quoting 4. 882MB:

Meanwhile in Florida, El Nino's effects has been in full swing, and continues to pummel the state.




I do so wanna be pummeled!
The last weather balloon launch by the Tampa/Ruskin NWS yielded a PW value of 1.77. That is insanely high for January.
Light to moderate rain at the moment here in Fort Myers.

According to Wunderground, we're now up to 10.03" for January.
1.9" is normal for the month.
Quoting 6. Sfloridacat5:

Double post - my computer is so slow today


Time for an upgrade?

Quoting 30. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Time for an upgrade?




Yeah, sometimes I think it would be faster using a rock and chisel.
Link / Human impact has created a 'plastic planet,' research shows, Phys.org, January 27, 2016.

"Plastics are pretty well everywhere on Earth, from mountain tops to the deep ocean floor - and can be fossilized into the far future. We now make almost a billion tons of the stuff every three years. If all the plastic made in the last few decades was clingfilm, there would be enough to put a layer around the whole Earth. With current trends of production, there will be the equivalent of several more such layers by mid-century."

The study suggests that plastics have such a long-lasting impact on the planet's geology because they are inert and hard to degrade. As a result, when plastics litter the landscape they become a part of the soil, often ending up in the sea and being consumed by and killing plankton, fish and seabirds.

Plastics can travel thousands of miles, caught up in the "great oceanic garbage patches", or eventually being washed up on distant beaches. Plastics can eventually sink to the sea floor, to become a part of the strata of the future.

The rise of plastics since the mid-20th century, both as a material element of modern life and as a growing environmental pollutant, has been widely described. Their distribution in both the terrestrial and marine realms suggests that they are a key geological indicator of the Anthropocene, as a distinctive stratal component."

----------
Link / NYC flood defense plan advances, but completion years off, Phys.org.
Quoting 8. 999Ai2016:

Thanks for the update Mr Masters. And to Maximiliano Herrera as well.
Numbers are so overwhelming, but one thing strikes me, and it has to do with Greenland:

"- On July 26, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -30.7C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in July in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -30.5C at the Mt McKinley AWS, Alaska, U.S.

- On August 27, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -43.5C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in August in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -43.4C at Cathy AWS, Greenland.

- On October 24, Geo Summit in Greenland recorded -60.0C, which is a new record of lowest temperature ever recorded in October in the Northern Hemisphere (at any elevation). Previous record was -57.8C at Northgrip, Greenland."


Could it be related to the meltwater from Greenland acting as a lid spread over the ocean, slowing the downwelling part of the current around there (as well as turning the area colder, as the map of last year's global anomalies show) or are there other much more influent patterns/oscillations at work? I was maybe thinking, after the demise of the arctic summer ocean ice, the "climatologically" coldest part, the meteorologic. pole could shift more towards Greenland and Eastern Siberia than the original north pole (hence the very high temps over the North Pole in the last weeks) ; or am I on a false lead there?


This is not the reason. That reason has instead caused that cold blob between Iceland and eastern Greenland, but it's not related to those temperatures in the Plateau.
There are two reasons:

1-Geo Summit has a very short serie and it has no "competition" : it can only beat itself as Northern Hemisphere coldest temperatures for most of the months.

2-The Jet Polar Stream has been very compacted during 2015 during many periods of time.
This might be not only for the AO and QBO, but it seems there could be a relationship with the Julian Maden oscillation aka the current Nino. Let's not forget that the world coldest temperature was in 1983 during a strong Nino and the previous one was in 1958, during another strong Nino.
NAM/SAM indexes seem to have a relationship with the ENSO cycles.
On the topic of the weather in Florida, and with apologies for a possibly/probably dumb question. . . What is the warning significance of saying that storms have the potential for the "development of funnel clouds"? Said clouds are then said to have the further possibility of touching down and forming tornadoes. Why not just say potential for tornadoes? Or is this a regional thing and is how South Florida people are used to their warnings being worded?
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks for the lunch time read doc

I believe very little will be done to solve our global problem and warmer years lay ahead for us all




The world is on fire on every front. Not just faster and faster now, but faster and faster with most blissfully unaware of any of it. The Sheeple head towards a cliff on fire and willingly go to their end. We must wake up the masses, because the world is asleep to the agenda.
Who is the only Pope of the Jesuit order? Do your research. The chess board is set. We are in check with no moves to avoid mate. God has all Queens. The plan, as the Good Book brings to fruition, fails, and all is good to those who seek truth. AGW is but the beginning of the end of the beginning which lasts forever. All those who know hear, those without seek, and those of the cabal fear.
Quoting 35. DeepSeaRising:



The world is on fire on every front. Not just faster and faster now, but faster and faster with most blissfully unaware of any of it. The Sheeple head towards a cliff on fire and willingly go to their end. We must wake up the masses, because the world is asleep to the agenda.


Certainly people are trying to open eyes, but any attempt to alarm the US public is met with suspicion and skepticism (despite the frightening urgency of the situation now]. The public sphere still believes some kind of government conspiracy is going on. In their eyes, climate action is simply a pretext for the covert communist takeover. It's ridiculous, and terrifying.

To make things worse, our election is a complete circus. These are parlous times we are living in and we need good leadership more than anything.
Quoting 24. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm still in the forecast for Sunday per NWS San Diego




Your Chart has .66 for KRAL, and WU only has .49 so I like your chart better.....lol
Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters....
We have people living on a high cliff that is crumbling into the Ocean as we speak and they are refusing to leave their homes. Any minute the apartment complex could fall hundreds of feet into the crashing waves but they want to stay.

How the hell would you get these people to care about what's going to happen in 100, 500, 1000 years from now? They won't even believe they're going to die when their hanging from a cliff.
No reason to be afraid? I'm staying. Link


Up to 10.36" for the month and heavier rain is starting to break out here in the Fort Myers area.
Quoting 28. tampabaymatt:

The last weather balloon launch by the Tampa/Ruskin NWS yielded a PW value of 1.77. That is insanely high for January.


Forecasters saying ours will double normal this weekend. From NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY WE TRANSITION MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.00" (AVERAGE IS 0.48") WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO MOST AREAS. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH 0.50-1.00" IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND UP TO 3 INCHES ON THE UPSLOPE FAVORED
PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH DESERTS
COULD SEE UP TO A HALF-INCH...AND THE LOWER DESERTS A QUARTER-INCH.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
Quoting 41. Sfloridacat5:

No reason to be afraid? I'm staying. Link





Did you even read the link you posted? Right near the beginning of it is says they being forced to leave...
to explain the risk of AGW impacts (or any non-immediate risk) it is thought you need to provide:

- Familiarity - as in making sure they understand

- Control - as much as possible, people must understand they control their actions, plans and fears, or they trust the people elected or appointed to be in control of something they can't control as an individual

-Benefits - as in, making the appropriate choices will pay off, in a way they can understand

If the public conversation about AGW impacts (or any other risks) were approached in this manner, we would be better off.

But, since the public conversation is largely for profit or for political gain(s), it is nearly impossible to approach AGW (or any other major risk) in this manner.

For immediate risks, such as apartments falling into the sea, or a tornado on the ground, people must be issued commands by those elected or appointed to be in control (within the law, of course).

Simple, but so damn complex.
Rainfall totals are in the 3"-4" range across southern Florida from Naples on the west coast to Boynton Beach on the east coast.
Quoting 45. PedleyCA:



Did you even read the link you posted? Right near the beginning of it is says they being forced to leave...


Yes, I read it and watched it all day on the World News.
People want to stay. That's the point. They are going to have to be forcefully removed because they would allow themselves to be killed.
Quoting 27. tampabaymatt:




Amazing what a chunk of fast moving air can do!

Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:

Up to 10.36" for the month and heavier rain is starting to break out here in the Fort Myers area.


I'm at 1.30" for the day and 4.41" for the month. I haven't picked up any additional measurable rain since the rain ended this morning.
Quoting 50. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Amazing what a chunk of fast moving air can do!




Do jet streams cause dynamics? Or are they already considered dynamics?
Quoting 49. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, I read it and watched it all day on the World News.
People want to stay. That's the point. They are going to have to be forcefully removed because they would allow themselves to be killed.


Hell, Just cut off all the utilities and put a fence around it.
Quoting 51. tampabaymatt:



I'm at 1.30" for the day. I haven't picked up any additional measurable rain since the rain ended this morning.


1.30 is a good day in Florida and a good couple weeks/month in Cali!
Thankfully the rain isn't due until tonight, and should be mostly done by tomorrow! That means my poncho will remain unused since the first week of December. Which is kind of ridiculous...

WHAT HAS OUR ATTENTION IS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS WRN WA ON THU MORNING. THE WEATHER OF GREATER CONCERN WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS READILY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF OUR COAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE KINK --- OR SHORTWAVE --- IN THE FLOW NEAR 40N 140W WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE FRONT AND ENERGIZE THE FRONT THIS EVNG AS IT IS APPROACHING WRN WA. SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB WIND SPEEDS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 50-70 KT RANGE. SFC DEWPOINTS OVER WRN WA ARE ALREADY NEAR 50F...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES CONCURRENT WITH THE STRONGEST SW WINDS ALOFT. CURRENT QPF STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST OVER THE OLYMPIC MTNS FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH THU MORNING...AND 2-4 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CASCADES DURING THE SAME TIME. MUCH OF THAT RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN JUST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. WILL BE CONSIDERING WIND ADVISORIES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND 8 AM THU. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4000 FT ON THU AFTN. BEHIND THE FRONT...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF JET STREAM ENERGY SLIPPING TO OUR SOUTH OVER OREGON. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON THU EVNG WILL AFFORD A WELL-DEFINED BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM LATE THU AFTN THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
Quoting 53. PedleyCA:



Hell, Just cut off all the utilities and put a fence around it.


Yep, and then wait for the cliff to let go. I think once it goes, it might take a big section. If these Pacific Storms keep pumping in the waves it won't be long.
Quoting 53. PedleyCA:



Hell, Just cut off all the utilities and put a fence around it.


Are they considered "home martyrs"?
Quoting 51. tampabaymatt:



I'm at 1.30" for the day and 4.41" for the month. I haven't picked up any additional measurable rain since the rain ended this morning.


1.94" for the day in Fort Myers, but it's raining pretty hard right now.
Quoting 55. Seattleite:

Thankfully the rain isn't due until tonight, and should be mostly done by tomorrow! That means my poncho will remain unused since the first week of December. Which is kind of ridiculous...

WHAT HAS OUR ATTENTION IS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS WRN WA ON THU MORNING. THE WEATHER OF GREATER CONCERN WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS READILY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF OUR COAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE KINK --- OR SHORTWAVE --- IN THE FLOW NEAR 40N 140W WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE FRONT AND ENERGIZE THE FRONT THIS EVNG AS IT IS APPROACHING WRN WA. SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB WIND SPEEDS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 50-70 KT RANGE. SFC DEWPOINTS OVER WRN WA ARE ALREADY NEAR 50F...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES CONCURRENT WITH THE STRONGEST SW WINDS ALOFT. CURRENT QPF STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST OVER THE OLYMPIC MTNS FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH THU MORNING...AND 2-4 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CASCADES DURING THE SAME TIME. MUCH OF THAT RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN JUST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. WILL BE CONSIDERING WIND ADVISORIES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND 8 AM THU. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4000 FT ON THU AFTN. BEHIND THE FRONT...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF JET STREAM ENERGY SLIPPING TO OUR SOUTH OVER OREGON. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON THU EVNG WILL AFFORD A WELL-DEFINED BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM LATE THU AFTN THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.


Isn't El Nino wonderful?
Quoting 46. Gearsts:




Baby's got blue eyes!
Quoting 14. washingtonian115:

No we're back to the same boring weather pattern.Hey Cariboy lets trade places :)
It looks like we end January and start the first few days of February warm, before turning to a colder pattern after Feb 5th.
Am I the only one who thinks that the fact that these heat records are mostly being set in the tropics is more than a tad disconcerting?

It's always been believed that greenhouse gas induced warming would affect the tropics less than other regions. The tropics are the engine room of global climate. In my opinion, this just shows how little we know about the future effects of climate change.

Long frontal boundary across the Pacific attached to a deep area of low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska (949 mb!), the result of that cold outbreak over Asia. In years past, such frontal zones typically generate several waves along the boundary and can tap deep moisture from the subtropics. Local forecast has rain into the SF Bay Area by Friday with showers thru the weekend.
64. vis0

Quoting 30. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Time for an upgrade?


wow cordless (and mouse scurried away)

------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
Quoting 28. tampabaymatt:

The last weather balloon launch by the Tampa/Ruskin NWS yielded a PW value of 1.77. That is insanely high for January.
wow!, Just waiting for something to bring it down to sea level, will it be here or be jetted towards Europe?... or even the the pole area.
Quoting 46. Gearsts:




just updated

The rain train is in effect.
Quoting 62. yonzabam:

Am I the only one who thinks that the fact that these heat records are mostly being set in the tropics is more than a tad disconcerting?

It's always been believed that greenhouse gas induced warming would affect the tropics less than other regions. The tropics are the engine room of global climate. In my opinion, this just shows how little we know about the future effects of climate change.


You cannot discount the El Nino nor can you discount seasonal variability. The Arctic region is still warming at twice the rate as the rest of the planet. That is where the trend lies.
Doomsday Clock Stays at Three Minutes to Midnight: At the ‘Brink’ of Man-Made Apocalypse

With “utter dismay,” the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced Tuesday that the symbolic Doomsday Clock will hold at three minutes to midnight—at the “brink” of man-made apocalypse—because world leaders have failed to take the necessary steps to protect citizens from the grave threats of nuclear war and runaway climate change.

Read more >>
Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:

The rain train is in effect.



You may start to get some flooding there. It really appears a training event is setting up right over Ft. Myers.
Quoting 64. vis0:


wow cordless (and mouse scurried away)

------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
wow!, Just waiting for something to bring it down to sea level, will it be here or be jetted towards Europe?... or even the the pole area.



Those were he days when you were somewhat relieved when the mouse scurried away. You would actually try to encourage this action. :) Just be thankful that technology has improved since then.

Quoting 59. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Isn't El Nino wonderful?


Lol, I am a fan of El Nino when I live in Seattle. Because for us, it often means a far milder warmer winter. By mild, I mean less rain. In fact, none of our regions top windstorms have happened during El Nino's. The joke up here is about the incredible amount of Californians here that complain about the rain. So to keep their numbers down, every few years we donate our rain to them. After a few weeks of rain they are overcome from the grey and never consider it again. It doesn't seem to work though. (Can't link the Seattle Times article because I've hit my limit for the month. However you can google it, roughly 15000 Californians moved to Seattle last year alone.)
Arctic ice's in bad shape for the coming melt season. I hope there will be a rebound in the growth rate this month. The hole around Svalbard looks ominous. But really it's nearly everywhere the same story, every year or so sea ice retreats farther and earlier, the last storms and advections of warm moist air didn't seem to improve the situation much.
The Great Lakes look almost completely unfrozen at the moment.
The HRRR model absolutely nailed the FL rain event today. Throughout the day it consistently showed the training, heavy rain band setting up exactly where it has set up. I still think that is easily the best short term model for FL rainfall.

Come to think of it, the Tampa NWS, WPC, and SPC all pretty much predicted the heaviest of rains would occur south of the I-4 corridor, so a great job all around to the forecasters.
Time to head back to work. Nap time is almost over. By the way, it's 59F and partly sunny where I am in Sumner, WA. Seattle is threatening to break the daily maximum temperature record today. Forecast is for 60F, record is 55F. It's currently 55F in Seattle. So we'll see! We often don't hit our max temps for the day until 3 or so....

West Palm International Airport 4.03" of rain.
Heaviest rain south of Tampa. Ft Myers to Naples getting it good.

Those across the Southeast might want to have their weather radios handy next week.

Quoting 27. tampabaymatt:


Maybe useful here upper in the list of comments.
Quoting 57. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Are they considered "home martyrs"?

Apartment marytrs ....
Quoting 79. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those across the Southeast might want to have their weather radios handy next week.


Yep..Thats bad. Tornadoes are likely. Any more negative tilt, and SPC may issue a special weather statement.

Four days left..... 69.5F here.
Quoting 75. tampabaymatt:

The HRRR model absolutely nailed the FL rain event today. Throughout the day it consistently showed the training, heavy rain band setting up exactly where it has set up. I still think that is easily the best short term model for FL rainfall.

Come to think of it, the Tampa NWS, WPC, and SPC all pretty much predicted the heaviest of rains would occur south of the I-4 corridor, so a great job all around to the forecasters.



Yeah actually the first round of rain overnight ended up being heavier/more robust than expected. Most areas got 1-1.5 inches overnight, now the main focus has shifted south.

I'll admit I had forecast the heaviest rain to be a bit further north, and I got it wrong. I didn't get it wrong for the same reason as the models had forecast though. The models had the first wave of rain much weaker and coming in later. The first upper disturbance was stronger than expected, and given that there is isentropic ascent on the right side and descent on the left, the intensification causes initially more rain followed by some drying after.

If you look at the SPC mesoanalysis page, you can see how there was drying and descent that was more pronounced in the central zones than expected due to the upper wave of low pressure being a bit more robust.

Given that, I'd say the models were a bit off except the HRRR which did depict things really well. The rest of the model guidance did well in terms of amount but not for the same reason, They showed a heavy band of rain around this time of day over central zones with the current upper wave instead it is further south by a lot, while guidance had only light rain in most areas overnight into the morning.

I think it's likely the NWS took note that the short wave was going to be stronger than expected, leading to heavier rains early for central zones but less later, which is what happened, hence the reason they leaned towards rainfall being focuses further south. So models were right, but not for the right reason given they showed less rain early and more later as far as central zones, as apposed to the official forecast which did get it right for the right reason.

Given many areas from Ft. Myers to West Palm Beach have already seen 2-4 inches with locally higher totals, some places could end up with 5-6 inches before all is said and done. As another wave of low pressure approaches tomorrow before it all clears.
Quoting 74. 999Ai2016:

Arctic ice's in bad shape for the coming melt season. I hope there will be a rebound in the growth rate this month. The hole around Svalbard looks ominous. But really it's nearly everywhere the same story, every year or so sea ice retreats farther and earlier, the last storms and advections of warm moist air didn't seem to improve the situation much.
The Great Lakes look almost completely unfrozen at the moment.



And models have been in a bad shape in estimating the rate of sea ice loss, especially during the past ten years. My own guess is, that more ice-free ocean surface causes more wind-driven mixing across the Arctic halocline, and models have failed to take that into account. There's lot of excess heat trapped beneath that halocline. I wouldn't be surprised to see not only ice-free summers, but also ice-free winters in the majority of Arctic sea area within few decades.

On the other hand, that image seems to be in disagreement with the latest assessment by the Finnish meteorological agency, when it comes to the Baltic Sea ice extent.
Is Orlando going to get that 8" of rain with severe storms and tornadoes?
Dr. Forbes on TWC got it completely right the temperature difference between Miami 80F and West Palm Beach 63F is creating severe thunderstorms in my area (Fort Lauderdale) we have been getting non stop pouring rain since 3 pm, and the local mets said no rain after 2...
Quoting 51. tampabaymatt:



I'm at 1.30" for the day and 4.41" for the month. I haven't picked up any additional measurable rain since the rain ended this morning.


Unfortunately I've had none, but we weren't expecting any with only 20% pops, so I'm not too disappointed, at least I knew it was likely going to be nothing, lol.

My parents across the bay in Pinellas said they had 1.32, the funny thing is they asked me around 9 AM what happened to the forecast because it hasn't rained much, I told them go check the gauge, as they didn't realize most of the rain in Central FL happened before most people woke up. That's why a great example of why rain gauges are great.
Quoting 87. Camerooski:

Dr. Forbes on TWC got it completely right the temperature difference between Miami 80F and West Palm Beach 63F is creating severe thunderstorms in my area (Fort Lauderdale) we have been getting non stop pouring rain since 3 pm, and the local mets said no rain after 2...


Looks like your rain is just getting started as the next upper short wave is approaching, there's a good chance you'll see a lot more into the evening and again tomorrow.
Quoting 88. Jedkins01:



Unfortunately I've had none, but we weren't expecting any with only 20% pops, so I'm not too disappointed, at least I knew it was likely going to be nothing, lol.

My parents across the bay in Pinellas said they had 1.32, the funny thing is they asked me around 9 AM what happened to the forecast because it hasn't rained much, I told them go check the gauge, as they didn't realize most of the rain in Central FL happened before most people woke up. That's why a great example of why rain gauges are great.


It was strange Jed. I woke up at 5 AM and it was raining pretty hard. I checked the radar and the dbz was in the light green color, indicating the rain should be light. Scott noted the same thing in his area. That 1.30" I had was between midnight and about 6:30 AM.
Looks to be a general rotation (weak low pressure) withing to the rain moving towards the S.W. Florida coast. Just heard a nice rumble of thunder for the first time today at my location in south Fort Myers.
so far this in no heavy rain event for e cen florida. mostly light to moderate. good soaking rains.
Quoting 28. tampabaymatt:

The last weather balloon launch by the Tampa/Ruskin NWS yielded a PW value of 1.77. That is insanely high for January.


Yeah that is really high, because the PW is basically a vertical integration of all water vapor in the column. And what that means is that values in the winter will always be lower because the troposphere is more shallow and cooler so total water vapor that the air can possibly hold is less, but values can be relatively as high as a result. A PW of 1.7-1.8 this time of year I would estimate to be like that of around 2.0-2.2 in the summer.

If you remember the massive flood event in early February 2006 in the Tampa Bay area where a strong upper level trough interacted with a stalled front on the 1-4 corridor, it led to powerful squall line to develop from the gulf across the Tampa Bay area. But steering lined up such that it just got stalled for 4-5 hours at a very strong intensity. I recently read back about the event, and Ruskin had a balloon launch that was a PW of 2.1 which I believe was a record highest value for February. That would be like 2.4-2.5 during the summer, or basically a tropical system.

Rainfall ended up being ridiculous, Tampa had over 8 inches, Clearwater had around 9.5, and some areas in Pinellas and Hillsborough not at official stations had 12+ in just 3-4 hours. I remember I had 9.2 in my gauge in about 4 hours. The flooding was crazy.
Quoting 90. tampabaymatt:



It was strange Jed. I woke up at 5 AM and it was raining pretty hard. I checked the radar and the dbz was in the light green color, indicating the rain should be light. Scott noted the same thing in his area. That 1.30" I had was between midnight and about 6:30 AM.


Yeah it is odd, it must be just because of the deeper moisture, but areas that looked like they were getting light to moderate rain by my surprise were reporting heavy totals. Radar is under estimating by quite a bit, especially the Miami radar, it has the West Palm Beach area in the 1-1.5 inch shading for storm total estimate, but West Palm Beach has actually had just over 4 inches now. That a big difference.
SPC has already mentioned it...



NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...AND RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECENS AND
NCEP MREF THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE CONCERNING THE SPEED OF
FORWARD PROGRESS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT EXISTS CONCERNING SUPPORT
FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AND IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.


GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A 100 KT WESTERLY JET STREAK AT 500 MB
WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT
850 MB DEVELOPING BY NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND STRONG FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARK PLATEAU AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO 1.25 INCHES/
AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS GREATER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF
THE QUESTION BY TUESDAY...AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES 15 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

..KERR.. 01/27/2016
Quoting 93. Jedkins01:



Yeah that is really high, because the PW is basically a vertical integration of all water vapor in the column. And what that means is that values in the winter will always be lower because the troposphere is more shallow and cooler so total water vapor that the air can possibly hold is less, but values can be relatively as high as a result. A PW of 1.7-1.8 this time of year I would estimate to be like that of around 2.0-2.2 in the summer.

If you remember the massive flood event in early February 2006 in the Tampa Bay area where a strong upper level trough interacted with a stalled front on the 1-4 corridor, it led to powerful squall line to develop from the gulf across the Tampa Bay area. But steering lined up such that it just got stalled for 4-5 hours at a very strong intensity. I recently read back about the event, and Ruskin had a balloon launch that was a PW of 2.1 which I believe was a record highest value for February. That would be like 2.4-2.5 during the summer, or basically a tropical system.

Rainfall ended up being ridiculous, Tampa had over 8 inches, Clearwater had around 9.5, and some areas in Pinellas and Hillsborough not at official stations had 12+ in just 3-4 hours. I remember I had 9.2 in my gauge in about 4 hours. The flooding was crazy.


I was working for one of the large companies in the Carillon/Feather Sound area during that flood event. I will never forget it. I believe it happened on a Friday. I made a decision to get the heck out of there once it was clear the rains weren't stopping. Some of my coworkers were stuck in the building for the entire weekend because the parking lot was flooded to the point where you couldn't drive through it. When I arrived at work the next Monday, there were easily 15-20 stalled out cars in the parking lot from people who tried to leave and didn't make it more than 50 feet before frying their car's mainframe.

That was in the top 3 of the hardest I've ever seen it rain.
Quoting 95. Jedkins01:



Yeah it is odd, it must be just because of the deeper moisture, but areas that looked like they were getting light to moderate rain by my surprise were reporting heavy totals. Radar is under estimating by quite a bit, especially the Miami radar, it has the West Palm Beach area in the 1-1.5 inch shading for storm total estimate, but West Palm Beach has actually had just over 4 inches now. That a big difference.


Radar often grossly underestimates totals from warm process rain but I assume FL forecasters have a lot of experience with that. Warm process rain forms at much lower levels so maybe distance from radar is an issue too but Palm Beach isn't far enough from MIA for that to be an issue is it?
Quoting 92. islander101010:

so far this in no heavy rain event for e cen florida. mostly light to moderate. good soaking rains.


Yep, the heaviest rains are all well south of Central FL.
Talk about serious dumpers...
rainfall rates are impressive!!
Over 3.5 inches today and most likely crossing 4 or 5" in the next hour in Naples.

Wunderground is now showing 11.22" for January for Fort Myers.
2.83" in the past 24 hours at Page Field (official reporting station).
Quoting 101. Sfloridacat5:

Wunderground is now showing 11.22" for January for Fort Myers.
Florida usually gets 3 times the winter rain during the Nino ...More this time...:)
Quoting 65. Patrap:





Hi Pat.
Something wrong here I think?
Probably an anomaly which will only last for a 1000 years or so?.
Nothing much to worry about unless you happen to live below a 100 meters or 330 feet above the present sea level.
Meanwhile back down in the deep Antarctic things seem to melting along quite nicely. About ready for the 1st around Antarctica coast line race soon:-



Quoting 102. hydrus:

Florida usually gets 3 times the winter rain during the Nino ...More this time...:)


5.84 times normal precipitation for January and it's still raining. :)
We'll have to see how the rest of the Winter goes.
Quoting 83. PedleyCA:


Four days left..... 69.5F here.

Now then Ped, concerning the California situation, I want you to be perfectly honest with me/us on this question!
How much actual rainfall in inches, centimetres or Chaldean cubits, if you prefer, have you actually received at ground level?
Have you actually received so far this year, rainfall, from any time/starting point you care to start from, in the rainfall year, be it Jan 2015 or July 2015!
There are comments on various blogs that suggest that various dams and reservoirs are indeed gaining water at such a pace that their levels are actually rising!
Is this in fact true?
5.23" at the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge is the highest storm total precipitation I can find. It's located over on the east coast just lnland from Delray Beach.
I'm sure there are higher reports somewhere else, but I'm going off the NWS/NOAA's Mesonet site
Link
I suppose that if you or anybody you know happens to be living in a house along the North American Pacific coastline, or within about 300 feet above high water lines at king tides then this link might give, send, or relay a bit of food for thought as to what is actually happening with tidal erosion among other more sinister things.

Link
Evening all... haven't read the day's blog entry or comments yet, but I must say today's wx in Nassau made me want to skip work and go picture-taking all day .... clear vivid light, few clouds, and warm temps .... and the water was "goh-jus" ...

Quoting 107. PlazaRed:

I suppose that if you or anybody you know happens to be living in a house along the North American Pacific coastline, or within about 300 feet above high water lines at king tides then this link might give, send, or relay a bit of food for thought as to what is actually happening with tidal erosion among other more sinister things.

Link


We were discussing this earlier. Some of the residents were refusing to leave, even though their lives are seriously at risk.
CFS showing full reverse after active start to the hurricane season.
Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:



We were discussing this earlier. Some of the residents were refusing to leave, even though their lives are seriously at risk.

Sorry missed out on the earlier discussion due to having to help a neighbour with a major health problem.
This kind of thing with the coastal erosion is not simply a matter of those who don't want to leave, more rather of those who can possibly assist them in facing up to the inevitable facts of the consequences of tidal and climate aggression, for want of a better word!
Our thoughts go out to all and anybody affected by this intrusion of the oceans and we hope that life and limb will be not only saved but placed in secure hands.
PlazaRed.
This one has change to a more active peak.
Quoting 110. Gearsts:

CFS showing full reverse after active start to the hurricane season.



CFS might be broken... lol
Pretty nice clouds for ... january lol.



Quoting 93. Jedkins01:



Yeah that is really high, because the PW is basically a vertical integration of all water vapor in the column. And what that means is that values in the winter will always be lower because the troposphere is more shallow and cooler so total water vapor that the air can possibly hold is less, but values can be relatively as high as a result. A PW of 1.7-1.8 this time of year I would estimate to be like that of around 2.0-2.2 in the summer.

If you remember the massive flood event in early February 2006 in the Tampa Bay area where a strong upper level trough interacted with a stalled front on the 1-4 corridor, it led to powerful squall line to develop from the gulf across the Tampa Bay area. But steering lined up such that it just got stalled for 4-5 hours at a very strong intensity. I recently read back about the event, and Ruskin had a balloon launch that was a PW of 2.1 which I believe was a record highest value for February. That would be like 2.4-2.5 during the summer, or basically a tropical system.

Rainfall ended up being ridiculous, Tampa had over 8 inches, Clearwater had around 9.5, and some areas in Pinellas and Hillsborough not at official stations had 12+ in just 3-4 hours. I remember I had 9.2 in my gauge in about 4 hours. The flooding was crazy.


What is the usual pw values for an ENSO winter versus not in central FL I wonder?
Quoting 108. BahaHurican:

Evening all... haven't read the day's blog entry or comments yet, but I must say today's wx in Nassau made me want to skip work and go picture-taking all day .... clear vivid light, few clouds, and warm temps .... and the water was "goh-jus" ...



Close...gaw-jus
Quoting 105. PlazaRed:


Now then Ped, concerning the California situation, I want you to be perfectly honest with me/us on this question!
How much actual rainfall in inches, centimetres or Chaldean cubits, if you prefer, have you actually received at ground level?
Have you actually received so far this year, rainfall, from any time/starting point you care to start from, in the rainfall year, be it Jan 2015 or July 2015!
There are comments on various blogs that suggest that various dams and reservoirs are indeed gaining water at such a pace that their levels are actually rising!
Is this in fact true?

Yes, often but not much. Since Jan 01, 2016=2.73", since 10/01/2015=4.16", since Jul 2015=8.35...
I'll have ten, please

Quoting 105. PlazaRed:


Now then Ped, concerning the California situation, I want you to be perfectly honest with me/us on this question!
How much actual rainfall in inches, centimetres or Chaldean cubits, if you prefer, have you actually received at ground level?
Have you actually received so far this year, rainfall, from any time/starting point you care to start from, in the rainfall year, be it Jan 2015 or July 2015!
There are comments on various blogs that suggest that various dams and reservoirs are indeed gaining water at such a pace that their levels are actually rising!
Is this in fact true?


I'm not Ped, but the rainfall has been decent. Reservoirs improving: Link

How rain compares to normal and previous El Nino Years: Link
Quoting 105. PlazaRed:


Now then Ped, concerning the California situation, I want you to be perfectly honest with me/us on this question!
How much actual rainfall in inches, centimetres or Chaldean cubits, if you prefer, have you actually received at ground level?
Have you actually received so far this year, rainfall, from any time/starting point you care to start from, in the rainfall year, be it Jan 2015 or July 2015!
There are comments on various blogs that suggest that various dams and reservoirs are indeed gaining water at such a pace that their levels are actually rising!
Is this in fact true?
hehehehehhehehehehhe
Quoting 117. PedleyCA:


Yes, often but not much. Since Jan 01, 2016=2.73", since 10/01/2015=4.16", since Jul 2015=8.35...



uuuuuuuuuuuuuu areeeeeeeeeeee daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa mannnnnnnnnnnnn!
Shasta Lake up 47 feet in less than 3 weeks! 100 feet to go to top that expletive!

They probably won't let it overflow btw.
Quoting 122. HurricaneHunterJoe:



uuuuuuuuuuuuuu areeeeeeeeeeee daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa mannnnnnnnnnnnn!


This is like deja vu all over again!
I can take one line of storms...but two lines of storms? That's gonna cause trouble....

Quoting 117. PedleyCA:


Yes, often but not much. Since Jan 01, 2016=2.73", since 10/01/2015=4.16", since Jul 2015=8.35...


Thanks for that note Ped. I am monitoring your situation closely and hope that you get enough rainfall in the next few months to continue without major drought problems.

This map looks the same from my perspective as it was last July. I am just East of the
D4 (Exceptional Drought) in Riverside Co, (long thin county near the bottom).
Welcome to the Renewable Energy Renaissance — Fight to End Fossil Fuel Burning is Now On

Beneath the dark and growing cloud of human fossil fuel emissions there are a few carbon-free lights being kindled among all the black, coal-ash soot.

They’re the lights of a new renaissance. An unprecedented period of change for governments, the energy markets, and for individuals themselves. For we are all, whether we realize it or not, now embroiled in a struggle that will determine our own fates as well as that of our children and of all the generations to follow. For this renaissance is as much about liberation — the provision of clean energy choice as means to free ourselves from a wretched captivity to fossil fuel consumption — as it is about fighting to leave those very hothouse mass extinction fuels in the ground.


Link
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs- mon/2016012700/cfs-mon_01_u850a_atl_6.png



I linked this chart / map, so as we can see in perspective the sizes of the areas in discussion. Its noteworthy that Texas is about the size of Spain and Portugal combined and that North Africa is immense! Twice the size of the southern United States!

My general opinion is that Europe will have major drought problems in the south this year 2016 and that it will herald the awakening of a lot of the European population to the perils that await us in the future.
Then again, I could be hopelessly wrong of course!
Quoting 66. tampabaymatt:

just updated




Is that a 1.3 bullseye in San Diego County.........that would be some kinda nice!
Speaking of Drought, here is a neat visualization of drought in the United States over a span of 14 years. (2000-2014)
Quoting 79. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those across the Southeast might want to have their weather radios handy next week.

might be wise
Quoting 127. PedleyCA:


This map looks the same from my perspective as it was last July. I am just East of the
D4 (Exceptional Drought) in Riverside Co, (long thin county near the bottom).
And I am in the most SW county in the contigious United States, just south of Mr Pedley, right about on the D2-D3 Line. Hello neighbor!
Quoting 127. PedleyCA:


This map looks the same from my perspective as it was last July. I am just East of the
D4 (Exceptional Drought) in Riverside Co, (long thin county near the bottom).
A little yellow creeping in the NW corner of California. That's what 20" of rain in the last 3 weeks will do for an area. Now we need to work on that big deep brown area in the middle of the state!
Quite the day! Two tornado warnings before I even stepped out the door for work. And it's been quite some time I've seen so much rain all day long. (West Palm/Lake Worth}

From the Miami NWS Discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
410 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016

...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT-THURSDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ONE TORNADO
NOW CONFIRMED WHICH STRUCK THE COCONUT CREEK-POMPANO BEACH AREA
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO AFFECT
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY ALONG A QUASI-WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HELICITY HAS LESSENED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
0-1 KM SRH NOW AT LESS THAN 100 M2/S2 ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL AND
0-3 KM SRH DOWN TO AROUND 150 M2/S2 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND LESS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS.
SO THE RISK FOR ROTATING CELLS AND TORNADOES HAS LESSENED...THOUGH
STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT-THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN EL NINO STYLE. 112 KT WINDS
MEASURED ON THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING AT 40K FT. NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THU-
FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE CRANKING UP EAST OF FLORIDA...THEN RACING
NORTHEAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER
WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH FL THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED WITH A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL TONIGHT-THU AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE GULF.

PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED THIS MORNING ON OUR KMFL MIAMI
SOUNDING WAS A RECORD FOR THE DATE...MEASURED AT 1.97 INCHES. PW
WILL CONTINUE ANONOMOUSLY HIGH UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN SUCH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
ANY FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. THE ANTICIPATION IS
ISSUANCES OF URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA.

A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK CONTINUES UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
AFTERNOON AS WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE QUITE STRONG. LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME
TONIGHT-THU, STRENGTHENING SOME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/ECMWF
SHOW 30-40 KT WINDS IN THE 1-3K FT LAYER THU AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
A FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...SO AM
ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS (50-60 MPH WINDS) POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE. CELLS AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT-THU...AND AGAIN, WHILE THE
TORNADO THREAT HAS LESSENED, IT JUST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.
Fort Myers will probably get its wettest day in January in recorded history. The monthly maximum is 3.40" and we already have 3.15" at the airport with moderate rain still training over. Insane month down in my hometown.
Quoting 86. luvtogolf:

Is Orlando going to get that 8" of rain with severe storms and tornadoes?


No more rain for you naysayer.
Quoting 91. Sfloridacat5:

Looks to be a general rotation (weak low pressure) withing to the rain moving towards the S.W. Florida coast. Just heard a nice rumble of thunder for the first time today at my location in south Fort Myers.



Hope my buddy in Estero is getting pounded! He is always whining about no rain there. From all the posts it appears the entire SW Florida coast is getting good rains.
Quoting 94. hydrus:




That 991mb system is Californias weekend storm......all of you back east enjoy!
Quoting 96. hydrus:

SPC has already mentioned it...



NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...AND RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECENS AND
NCEP MREF THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE CONCERNING THE SPEED OF
FORWARD PROGRESS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT EXISTS CONCERNING SUPPORT
FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AND IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.


GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A 100 KT WESTERLY JET STREAK AT 500 MB
WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT
850 MB DEVELOPING BY NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND STRONG FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARK PLATEAU AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO 1.25 INCHES/
AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS GREATER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF
THE QUESTION BY TUESDAY...AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES 15 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

..KERR.. 01/27/2016



No more tornados........please!
The Zika virus was first detected in Brazil last April. It's transmitted by the aedes aegypti mosquito, which also carries dengue, chikungunya and the West Nile virus.

This puts 200 million Americans at risk, and with climate change , that number is sure to grow.
More standing water, longer breeding seasons. more optimal breeding temperatures, less cold to kill off over wintering populations.
And I can't help but to think that viruses are going to change as well, finding new vectors, responding to these new opportunities.

It's the very small things that are making the jump to a new warmer world.

This is like watching a pop corn machine. At first it's one or three , after that we're off to the races. It's like watching the crash of the moose populations as the ticks gained the upper hand. And bled them dry in winter. Except this round we're the moose, and it's babies being born with heads that look papayas.
Quoting 142. RobertWC:

The Zika virus was first detected in Brazil last April. It's transmitted by the aedes aegypti mosquito, which also carries dengue, chikungunya and the West Nile virus.

This puts 200 million Americans at risk, and with climate change , that number is sure to grow.
More standing water, longer breeding seasons. more optimal breeding temperatures, less cold to kill off over wintering populations.
And I can't help but to think that viruses are going to change as well, finding new vectors, responding to these new opportunities.

It's the very small things that are making the jump to a new warmer world.

This is like watching a pop corn machine. At first it's one or three , after that we're off to the races. It's like watching the crash of the moose populations as the ticks gained the upper hand. And bled them dry in winter. Except this round we're the moose, and it's babies being born with heads that look papayas.

That's kinda off topic, but as long as we're off topic, I'll tell y'all a story.

So, I was playing a game on my Nook HD and then remembered Jennifer Lien (who played Kes on Star Trek Voyager, just in case you didn't know or forgot) was put in jail in September 2015 for indecent exposure. For a few weeks, I watched the news for updates, but nothing came.
Cut to about 30-45 minutes ago. I remembered something about Jennifer Lien getting out of jail for trial or something, but when I googled it, I just got news results from September 2015. So I probably dreamt it up.
End of story, back to your shenanigans. Hope you enjoyed.
Quoting 97. tampabaymatt:



I was working for one of the large companies in the Carillon/Feather Sound area during that flood event. I will never forget it. I believe it happened on a Friday. I made a decision to get the heck out of there once it was clear the rains weren't stopping. Some of my coworkers were stuck in the building for the entire weekend because the parking lot was flooded to the point where you couldn't drive through it. When I arrived at work the next Monday, there were easily 15-20 stalled out cars in the parking lot from people who tried to leave and didn't make it more than 50 feet before frying their car's mainframe.

That was in the top 3 of the hardest I've ever seen it rain.


What was also odd about that event, is that it wasn't a typical heavy rain event for winter, in that the thunderstorms were extremely lightning active, as in summer amounts of CG lightning for 3-4 hours. The thunderstorms had a lot of gusty winds, and I think we had a severe thunderstorm warning at least 2 separate times, unusual for a stalled training line of activity, especially in winter. At one point, we had complete whiteout conditions from pure heavy rain, almost like a severe blizzard.

Our neighborhood was completely flooded, and we lost power for a few hours as well from the severity of either the wind or lightning. The rainfall rates were so heavy that some roofs collapsed including a Wal-Mart. The NWS did a report on it, and mentioned that some areas in Pinellas may have seen upwards of 6 inches in one hour during the peak. It was like having the inner core of a tropical system stuck over us for 3-4 hours straight. It's odd saying that after living in Florida for 15 years, one of the most intense rainfall events I've seen happened in February.

What happened this past summer was insane though also, the rain gauge at my parents house recorded 48 inches of rain from June-August. It was almost hard to believe after tallying it all up, which is basically like a few months in the Amazon basin.
The year total for 2015 ended up being somewhere around 76 inches, but I don't remember exactly. If the Fall and Spring hadn't have been so dry, we might have made a run for the wettest year on record.
Quoting 62. yonzabam:

Am I the only one who thinks that the fact that these heat records are mostly being set in the tropics is more than a tad disconcerting?

It's always been believed that greenhouse gas induced warming would affect the tropics less than other regions. The tropics are the engine room of global climate. In my opinion, this just shows how little we know about the future effects of climate change.
As AGW theory predicted, the tropics have been the slowest to warm. They are just now starting to catch up.

And, yes, it is disconcerting. The AGW ball is really rolling now.
Just today, I have come across 2 articles from the :


The Conversation
Academic rigor, journalistic flair


The second is -
Western Australia’s coral reefs are in trouble: we mustn’t ignore them

Last year’s record-breaking temperatures are having a devastating impact on the world’s coral reefs. For only the third time in recorded history, coral reefs are experiencing a global “bleaching” event (where corals turn white; some ultimately die).

Australia’s reefs are feeling the impact, too. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is in charge of producing global bleaching forecasts. Surprisingly, it isn’t the Great Barrier Reef facing the greatest threat this year, but Western Australia’s less well-known coral reefs.

NOAA predictions for the Western Australia (WA) are about as severe as they get: there is a 60% probability of the most severe bleaching (“Alert 2”) for all of April 2016.


Link

Both were very well done, And certainly worth a bookmark.
Quoting 115. win1gamegiantsplease:



What is the usual pw values for an ENSO winter versus not in central FL I wonder?


I'm really not sure, I'd have to look into it. The SPC has PW climo maps for most recording stations in the U.S., including record values. Given that, one could put the data into excel and make some nice graphs if there isn't any recorded data in PW in El Nino vs non-El Nino. However I don't plan on doing that, as I have enough busy work as a student :)
Quoting 127. PedleyCA:


This map looks the same from my perspective as it was last July. I am just East of the
D4 (Exceptional Drought) in Riverside Co, (long thin county near the bottom).


I'm in Ventura County, safely away from the not-so-bad drought borders. Good solid D-4
000
NOUS42 KMFL 272240
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-281045-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
540 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 01/27/16 TORNADO EVENT...

...EF-1 TORNADO CUTS ACROSS PARTS OF COCONUT CREEK AND POMPANO BEACH...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.35 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 35 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 2

START DATE: JAN 27 2016
START TIME: 930 AM EST
START LOCATION: 3 SSE COCONUT CREEK / BROWARD / FL
START LAT/LON: 26.2349 / -80.1809

END DATE: JAN 27 2016
END TIME: 936 AM EST
END LOCATION: 2 ESE COCONUT CREEK / BROWARD/ FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.2601 / -80.1568

SURVEY_SUMMARY: NWS STORM SURVEY CONDUCTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DETERMINED THAT AN EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND ATLANTIC AVE AND
LIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE ALONG COPANS ROAD.

DETAILS OF THE DAMAGE INVESTIGATED DURING THE SURVEY INCLUDE:

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NW 2ND COURT AND
NW 43RD AVE AND TRAVELED NORTHEAST LEADING TO SEVERAL SNAPPED AND
UPROOTED HARDWOOD TREES AND DAMAGE TO FENCES ACROSS NW
42ND...PALMETTO DRIVE...AND COCONUT CREEK BOULEVARD.

DISCONTINUOUS DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES WAS REPORTED ACROSS
THE BROWARD COLLEGE-NORTH CAMPUS...BEFORE THE TORNADO
STRENGTHENED AND TOSSED SEVERAL CARS IN THE NORTH PARKING LOT NEAR
THE HEALTH SCIENCES BUILDING.

ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CAMPUS...A COCONUT CREEK COMMUNITY BUS WAS
FLIPPED AS THE TORNADO CROSSED COCONUT CREEK PARKWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE LEADING TO ONE INJURY.
THE TORNADO THEN
INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED NORTH INTO THE WYNMOOR VILLAGE CONDO
COMPLEX WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. NUMEROUS
LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SEVERAL LIGHT POLES WERE SNAPPED.
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE WAS DONE TO FENCES ALONG THE PROPERTY. SEVERAL
MID-LEVEL CONDO BUILDINGS SUSTAINED MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE
CONSISTING OF ROOFING MATERIAL AND PORTIONS OF THE CONCRETE BLOCK
BEING PEELED OFF AND THROWN SEVERAL YARDS. THIS MATERIAL DAMAGED
NUMEROUS CARS IN THE PARKING LOT. ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE WAS ALSO
REPORTED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE COMPLEX...INCLUDING PALM
TREES THAT WERE SNAPPED IN HALF AND DEBARKED.


THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED THE FLORIDA'S TURNPIKE NEAR THE MILE
MARKER 67 ENTRANCE AND EXIT RAMPS. SEVERAL CARS WERE TOSSED AND
DAMAGED ALONG THE TURNPIKE. ONE CAR TRAVELING SOUTHBOUND ON THE
TURNPIKE WAS FLIPPED INTO THE NORTHBOUND LANE RESULTING IN ONE
MINOR INJURY. A TRACTOR TRAILER WAS ALSO FLIPPED ON THE SOUTHBOUND
OFF RAMP.


THE TORNADO THEN WEAKENED AS IT MOVED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TURNPIKE WHERE LARGE LIMBS WHERE BROKEN OFF SEVERAL TREES ALONG
WITH SMALLER TREES UPROOTED AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG
BLOUNT ROAD. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED TO THE NORTH HOMELESS
ASSISTANCE CENTER IN THIS AREA.

A TRACTOR TRAILER WAS FLIPPED AT THE WHOLE FOODS WAREHOUSE ALONG
NW 19TH STREET AND BLOUT ROAD...BEFORE THE TORNADO THEN TRAVELED
FURTHER NORTHEAST CAUSING MODERATE TREE DAMAGE ALONG NW 25TH AVE.
THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR COPANS ROAD AND NW 25TH STREET.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...>200 MPH

Looking forward to this win1. I've already planted my spring garden.

Quoting 119. win1gamegiantsplease:

I'll have ten, please


Quoting 143. 62901IL:


That's kinda off topic, but as long as we're off topic, I'll tell y'all a story.

So, I was playing a game on my Nook HD and then remembered Jennifer Lien (who played Kes on Star Trek Voyager, just in case you didn't know or forgot) was put in jail in September 2015 for indecent exposure. For a few weeks, I watched the news for updates, but nothing came.
Cut to about 30-45 minutes ago. I remembered something about Jennifer Lien getting out of jail for trial or something, but when I googled it, I just got news results from September 2015. So I probably dreamt it up.
End of story, back to your shenanigans. Hope you enjoyed.


Jennifer Lee had a lien put on her house this January, maybe that counts.
Quoting 150. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looking forward to this win1. I've already planted my spring garden.



A bit Chilly there....
Poor humpback whale :(

[Link]

Quoting 147. Jedkins01:



I'm really not sure, I'd have to look into it. The SPC has PW climo maps for most recording stations in the U.S., including record values. Given that, one could put the data into excel and make some nice graphs if there isn't any recorded data in PW in El Nino vs non-El Nino. However I don't plan on doing that, as I have enough busy work as a student :)


Yea don't do any of that unless it's for a grade, credit, or money. I still have to figure out what I want to do for a thesis by the summer and work on grad school apps on top of the work so I know the feeling.
143. 62901IL

WOW !

Climate change has brought a new virus , none of us had ever heard of before the 1st of January to the US. And it's riding on a vector that is certainly profiting from it, and think it's "off topic" ?



And you treat us to minor TV trivia ?

Quoting 154. RobertWC:

143. 62901IL

WOW !

Climate change has brought a new virus , none of us had ever heard of before the 1st of January to the US. And it's riding on a vector that is certainly profiting from it, and think it's "off topic" ?



And you treat us to minor TV trivia ?




I just thought I might tell a story. Sorry if I misread your post.
This post refers to post 149 about the storm survey, I'm doing this to prevent posts from being too long, lol.

Two weekends ago, we were covering the severe event that led to two EF2 tornadoes that killed 2 people and injured an additional 7 people. Some of the damage included normal homes that were completely destroyed, and condos with roofs ripped off and numerous windows blow out with the interiors sustaining serious damage.
Here we have also an example of an E1 causing notable damage, including injuries which could have been deaths had those people in the lofted cars not had been as lucky.

Folks, I want to stress this again, the atmosphere doesn't care where you live. Too many times, including that weekend where people died, I saw posters here, including ones from Florida, who were saying "but Florida only gets weak tornadoes, not like the Midwest which destroy things and injure/kill people".

Yes, Florida gets less strong tornadoes, but they DO still happen here in Florida. While only 39 tornadoes have occurred in Florida of EF3 or stronger, that's still frequent enough to make note that they do happen.
Also, an EF2 is considered a strong tornado by the NWS, as we saw from Central and SW Florida, they can and do injure and kill people, and are capable of doing significant damage to normal homes and other structures. There have been 318 tornadoes rated at EF2 in Florida, that is definitely a high enough number to show strong tornadoes happen here more than assumed.

But even when it comes to EF1 tornadoes, as we see from the survey from post 149, they can still be very dangerous and cause quite a bit of damage. There have been 910 tornadoes rated EF1 in Florida, that's a lot.
So given this, please do not ignore tornado warnings if you live in Florida, don't make the mistake of assuming you don't need to worry because they "are only weak" here. Unfortunately, Florida has a high rate of tornado deaths, and I suspect it's partly because people don't take them seriously enough here.
43. 62901IL

This a real chat room for Florida, and the Caribbean, like pythons in the Everglades, the greening oranges in their orchards, salt water in their streets, alligators in their pools, all of pales with the coming of this virus.

They have this now. And it ain't like a gator in your pool.
Does anyone know if the CWG ever walked back their story about the North Pole being above freezing temps in late December. When in fact it never happened. 

The story is by Angela Fritz., December 30 2015
Quoting 150. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looking forward to this win1. I've already planted my spring garden.




I'll definitely be heading outdoors to do stuff this weekend

Quoting 94. hydrus:




That could be a problem. The 500mb vorticity map next week looks gnarly, it's not negatively tilted, it's a giant sickle. [Link]
Quoting 155. 62901IL:



I just thought I might tell a story. Sorry if I misread your post.


Fair enough . And who among us does not love a good Star Trek "factioniod" ?

Inventing a new word here, bridging the world of fact and fiction.

Insert smiley face here.
Quoting 159. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'll definitely be heading outdoors to do stuff this weekend



That could be a problem. The 500mb vorticity map next week looks gnarly, it's not negatively tilted, it's a giant sickle. [Link]
The weather will take a turn for the worse within the next two weeks. That system still has about a 20% chance of taking on a negative slant, even still, it will have some severe weather. The storms could become very powerful over the eastern half by Mid February. Massive cross polar flow with enormous dips in the polar jet.
162. vis0

Quoting 98. georgevandenberghe:



Radar often grossly underestimates totals from warm process rain but I assume FL forecasters have a lot of experience with that. Warm process rain forms at much lower levels so maybe distance from radar is an issue too but Palm Beach isn't far enough from MIA for that to be an issue is it?
The description of rain falling ~3 to 4 times what the radar estimates is as stated by some were warmer air is underestimated by radar.
But maybe also if the jet stream/streak is acting like a front (cause its so tropically saturated) and then the LOW developing gains strength to create a front.
ANALOGY TIME::
Maybe its like those old juke box players where the records are stacked up (atmospheric river layers) and the record player arm and plate rotating being like the developing LOW (spinning) and that arm to spinning record player  (LOW) takes a layer of moisture (a record) one layer at a time since it is low level stream.  Therefore all the radar sees is the low level moisture not the next quick replenishing low level moisture overlapping faster n faster the last layer of moisture.

 Fonz, i mean STS hit the jukebox see it it plays "raining cats n dogs" (1950s version)
 
 
 yes hurricanehunterjoe you can play the Fonz next and hit the juke box to see if it plays "singing in the rain",
whats that?, some member hit it the juke box and its now playing "plop plop fizz fizz oh what a relief it is" ...**zilly pg6 cmmnt#292
 
-------------------------------------another comment---------------------


 As to the doomsday clock i'm concerned that aGW might lead to more rogue waves (not fact just wondering) and that  plutonium shipment is well... lets hope not but there is a scenario where if one is worried as to nuclear threats more than aGW /. its all tied in a luvly "Constrictor knot" by man-kinds  actions and not thinking things through. Sure inventions are what makes mankind reach levels other animals can't but once man invents something pay attention to that inventions positives and negatives, instead of touting the positives and ignoring the negatives
Quoting 160. RobertWC:



Fair enough . And who among us does not love a good Star Trek "factioniod" ?

Inventing a new word here, bridging the world of fact and fiction.

Insert smiley face here.
army of locusts is coming the next big story from south America


Well I thought I would check in cause it's been a while for me....

I see GW is still the talk of the day and not much has changed....

How's Everyone Tonight????

Taco :o)
Quoting 142. RobertWC:

The Zika virus was first detected in Brazil last April. It's transmitted by the aedes aegypti mosquito, which also carries dengue, chikungunya and the West Nile virus.

This puts 200 million Americans at risk, and with climate change , that number is sure to grow.
More standing water, longer breeding seasons. more optimal breeding temperatures, less cold to kill off over wintering populations.
And I can't help but to think that viruses are going to change as well, finding new vectors, responding to these new opportunities.

It's the very small things that are making the jump to a new warmer world.

This is like watching a pop corn machine. At first it's one or three , after that we're off to the races. It's like watching the crash of the moose populations as the ticks gained the upper hand. And bled them dry in winter. Except this round we're the moose, and it's babies being born with heads that look papayas.
Let's not make this into Ebola 2.0. Zika has been known since the the 1940's. It has been commonly reported in Central America since the 1950's. The main risk is for birth defects if contracted by pregnant women but even for pregnant women, the rate of becoming symptomatic is about the same 20% of the those infected in the general public. A pregnant woman had a much greater chance of birth defects in her newborn from drinking alcohol while pregnant than Zika. The 20% of those that do become symptomatic report very mild flu like symptoms that usually disappears in a few days. The mortality rate is so near zero that it disappears into the background rate of people dying from the flu. The CDC has detailed information available. There's no doubt that all tropical diseases will increase in a warmer climate. We are not at that stage yet. A lot of irresponsible information about Zika is spreading on the internet. This is not a current public health emergency.
Quoting 165. sar2401:

Let's not make this into Ebola 2.0. Zika has been known since the the 1940's. It has been commonly reported in Central America since the 1950's. The main risk is for birth defects if contracted by pregnant women but even for pregnant women, the rate of becoming symptomatic is about the same 20% of the those infected in the general public. A pregnant woman had a much greater chance of birth defects in her newborn from drinking alcohol while pregnant than Zika. The 20% of do become symptomatic report very mild flu like symptoms that usually disappears in a few days. The mortality rate is so near zero that it disappears into the background rate of people dying from the flu. The CDC has detailed information available. There's no doubt that all tropical diseases will increase in a warmer climate. We are not at that stage yet. A lot of irresponsible information about Zika is spreading on the internet. This is not a current public health emergency.


I'm glad someone else thinks the same way....
Thank You Sar for the Info....

Taco :o)
Well You all have a Great Night
and I'll be back soon to check in

Taco :o)
Quoting 142. RobertWC:

The Zika virus was first detected in Brazil last April. It's transmitted by the aedes aegypti mosquito, which also carries dengue, chikungunya and the West Nile virus.

This puts 200 million Americans at risk, and with climate change , that number is sure to grow.
More standing water, longer breeding seasons. more optimal breeding temperatures, less cold to kill off over wintering populations.
And I can't help but to think that viruses are going to change as well, finding new vectors, responding to these new opportunities.

It's the very small things that are making the jump to a new warmer world.

This is like watching a pop corn machine. At first it's one or three , after that we're off to the races. It's like watching the crash of the moose populations as the ticks gained the upper hand. And bled them dry in winter. Except this round we're the moose, and it's babies being born with heads that look papayas.
Howdy Robert. This type of virus will likely become more prevalent. At the very least people who travel a lot to the tropics should always consider being inoculated , or antibiotic prophylaxis before leaving. An amazing amount of people will go on vacation or business trip without doing anything, and it is very dangerous to them , there families and even the public.
Quoting 158. nymore:

Does anyone know if the CWG ever walked back their story about the North Pole being above freezing temps in late December. When in fact it never happened. 

The story is by Angela Fritz., December 30 2015


It didn't happen? Cause according to the first page of Google results to "North Pole above freezing" it did.
Quoting 166. taco2me61:



I'm glad someone else thinks the same way....
Thank You Sar for the Info....

Taco :o)
Hey, Taco. Zika is just another in a long string of tropical diseases that may threaten the continental US in the future...just not next week. Of all the tropical viruses, if I had to chose one to get, it would be Zika, since I stand an 80% chance of have no symptoms at all. The increase in resistant forms of malaria worries more than a virus like Zika, and a lot of heavy breathing about it doesn't do anyone any good.
Haven't paid attention to the rest of Florida's weather, but once again Tampa has botched our forecast...
Cut so much wood to keep dry in order to make fires for the rest of this winter, but our 90% chance of rain was sunshine.....how correct...

Everyone here is expressing dislike in our forecasts...something needs to happen...

I know forecasts can be wrong, but us here in our rural community depend on the forecast majorly....

We have plants in the ground that we haven't watered because we didn't want to over water them with the "rain" that was supposed to come...

We need an office in Gainesville, because we're fed up with Tampa...
" The world cracked , and fell on me "

A 15 year-old boy in Nepal last spring .



Himalayan Megaquake
West Palm Beach has had 4.70 today so far, and Ft. Myers has had 3.37. Overall Anywhere from Brooksville over to Orlando South to the Everglades has had 1-2 inches or more.

Naples has been drenched too, but the official station has had outages today, so it's reporting isn't reliable today.
Quoting 169. Astrometeor:



It didn't happen? Cause according to the first page of Google results to "North Pole above freezing" it did.


It's debatable, and frankly, inconsequential. This is just the case of a usual suspect trying to drudge up a controversy.
Quoting 169. Astrometeor:



It didn't happen? Cause according to the first page of Google results to "North Pole above freezing" it did.
As detailed in the HuffPost article of 12/31, we aren't really sure if the North Pole got above freezing. There are no weather stations at the pole so drifting buoys near the Pole serve as proxies. Only one buoy near the Pole got to 33, and that buoy apparently has some suspect instruments. Regardless of the exact temperature, it was still nearly 50 degrees warmer near the Pole than average. The temperature above freezing is just a news story against the background of continuing warming in the Arctic.
Quoting 173. Jedkins01:

West Palm Beach has had 4.70 today so far, and Ft. Myers has had 3.37. Overall Anywhere from Brooksville over to Orlando South to the Everglades has had 1-2 inches or more.

Naples has been drenched too, but the official station has had outages today, so it's reporting isn't reliable today.
I ended up with wet sidewalks and 0.03". A little less than the WPC forecast of 1 to 1.5 inches, but no heavy rain right now is good since things are still pretty saturated up here.
Quoting 171. JrWeathermanFL:

Haven't paid attention to the rest of Florida's weather, but once again Tampa has botched our forecast...
Cut so much wood to keep dry in order to make fires for the rest of this winter, but our 90% chance of rain was sunshine.....how correct...

Everyone here is expressing dislike in our forecasts...something needs to happen...

I know forecasts can be wrong, but us here in our rural community depend on the forecast majorly....

We have plants in the ground that we haven't watered because we didn't want to over water them with the "rain" that was supposed to come...

We need an office in Gainesville, because we're fed up with Tampa...


Botched forecast?
Tampa doesn't even forecast for Gainsville, and nearly every station in the Ruskin/Tampa forecast office viewing areas has had 1 inch plus today and experienced at least 8-12 hours of rain.
The only area that didn't get much was Citrus county and Levy county, but the NWS in Ruskin was only forecasting 0.25-0.50 up there and had lower pops, so yeah...

That's hardly a botched forecast.
178. NNYer
Quoting 158. nymore:

Does anyone know if the CWG ever walked back their story about the North Pole being above freezing temps in late December. When in fact it never happened. 

The story is by Angela Fritz., December 30 2015

Trying to see your point here. Could you elaborate?
Quoting 176. sar2401:

I ended up with wet sidewalks and 0.03". A little less than the WPC forecast of 1 to 1.5 inches, but no heavy rain right now is good since things are still pretty saturated up here.


Yeah that's pretty bad, but at least it's already saturated there. The worst is when heavy stuff is expected and there is a nasty drought ongoing.

We haven't gotten anything, but we weren't expecting much, so it's not a major disappointment.
Quoting 157. RobertWC:

43. 62901IL

This a real chat room for Florida, and the Caribbean, like pythons in the Everglades, the greening oranges in their orchards, salt water in their streets, alligators in their pools, all of pales with the coming of this virus.

They have this now. And it ain't like a gator in your pool.
Some articles on the Zika virus here from the London Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/world/zika-virus. Some countries in Central and South America are warning women to avoid getting pregnant. Problem is that birth control measures are illegal. It is coming to the USA this year.
P.S. Not just Florida, either, but the entire Gulf Coast. Check the range of Aedes aegypti here.
Broccoli, spinach, lettuce, snap peas...cool weather stuff.

Quoting 152. PedleyCA:


A bit Chilly there....
Quoting 170. sar2401:

Hey, Taco. Zika is just another in a long string of tropical diseases that may threaten the continental US in the future...just not next week. Of all the tropical viruses, if I had to chose one to get, it would Zika, since I stand an 80% chance of have no symptoms at all. The increase in resistant forms of malaria worries more than a virus like Zika, and a lot of heavy breathing about it doesn't do anyone any good.


I got horribly sick right after I got home from a trip to Guatemala back when I was in high school. I'm not sure what it was, but I had nerve pain so bad, I thought someone was ramming a red hot sledge hammer into my back.
On top of that, I had severe and frequent trips to the bathroom for a long while. I'm a pretty pain tolerant person, as I've played sports and worked out much of my life. I've had broken bones and other injuries, but this was the first time I've ever taken a pain killer besides a couple aspirin occasionally. Even with that, I felt like I was going to die, I could barely get out of bed. I went to the clinic and they said my symptoms matched that of either an ecoli infection, or some brutal jungle virus.
Quoting 168. hydrus:

Howdy Robert. This type of virus will likely become more prevalent. At the very least people who travel a lot to the tropics should always consider being inoculated , or antibiotic prophylaxis before leaving. An amazing amount of people will go on vacation or business trip without doing anything, and it is very dangerous to them , there families and even the public.
There is no vaccine for Zika, and no vaccine for almost any of the tropical viruses. Antibiotic prophylaxis for malaria should be avoided unless a person has known bad side effects to non-antibiotic malaria prophylaxis. It's the overuse of antibiotics that's contributing to resistant malaria. The most important thing for anyone traveling to the tropics is to avoid mosquito bites. That's very possible using the right clothing and repellents. The danger with these mosquito vector diseases is getting it and then getting bitten by a native mosquito when you return. That's what will spread a disease, since there's no other way to spread it.

When it comes to how people behave, we already have a flu/pneumonia vaccine that's 80 to 90 percent effective yet only about 60% the people at risk get it. We average 500 hospitalizations a week in the US for influenza and associated pneumonia. Seven people died from confirmed influenza last week, The real number is probably higher since many flu deaths are listed as caused by other respiratory diseases. In a mild year, about 3,000 people a year that we know of die from the flu. About 15,000 to 20,000 die of pneumonia, one of the prime causes of death in the elderly. If we can't get 40% of the people to take a cheap and easily administered vaccine, I don't have much hope for people taking precautions that require real effort.
Quoting 182. Jedkins01:



I got horribly sick right after I got home from a trip to Guatemala back when I was in high school. I'm not sure what it was, but I had nerve pain so bad, I thought someone was ramming a red hot sledge hammer into my back.
On top of that, I had severe and frequent trips to the bathroom for a long while. I'm a pretty pain tolerant person, as I've played sports and worked out much of my life. I've had broken bones and other injuries, but this was the first time I've ever taken a pain killer besides a couple aspirin occasionally. Even with that, I felt like I was going to die, I could barely get out of bed. I went to the clinic and they said my symptoms matched that of either an ecoli infection, or some brutal jungle virus.
Did you take a malaria prophylaxis before you went? Did your doctor draw a blood sample and have it sent to a tropical disease lab? If he did, what did it show? If he didn't, you need to have a blood sample tested ASAP. Your description cover a lot of tropical diseases that get better on their own in young people. It's also descriptive of malaria, and rural areas of Guatemala are endemic with malaria. The symptoms of malaria generally cease after a few weeks, as long as it doesn't kill you. It then continues to live and reproduce in your body and can cause grave problems later in life.
Quoting 182. Jedkins01:



I got horribly sick right after I got home from a trip to Guatemala back when I was in high school. I'm not sure what it was, but I had nerve pain so bad, I thought someone was ramming a red hot sledge hammer into my back.
On top of that, I had severe and frequent trips to the bathroom for a long while. I'm a pretty pain tolerant person, as I've played sports and worked out much of my life. I've had broken bones and other injuries, but this was the first time I've ever taken a pain killer besides a couple aspirin occasionally. Even with that, I felt like I was going to die, I could barely get out of bed. I went to the clinic and they said my symptoms matched that of either an ecoli infection, or some brutal jungle virus.


My mother likes to say this: "If they can't find a bone sticking out of you, then they won't be able to diagnose you."

Quoting 175. sar2401:

As detailed in the HuffPost article of 12/31, we aren't really sure if the North Pole got above freezing. There are no weather stations at the pole so drifting buoys near the Pole serve as proxies. Only one buoy near the Pole got to 33, and that buoy apparently has some suspect instruments. Regardless of the exact temperature, it was still nearly 50 degrees warmer near the Pole than average. The temperature above freezing is just a news story against the background of continuing warming in the Arctic.


Quoting 174. Naga5000:



It's debatable, and frankly, inconsequential. This is just the case of a usual suspect trying to drudge up a controversy.


Thanks you two.
Quoting 180. guygee:

Some articles on the Zika virus here from the London Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/world/zika-virus. Some countries in Central and South America are warning women to avoid getting pregnant. Problem is that birth control measures are illegal. It is coming to the USA this year.
P.S. Not just Florida, either, but the entire Gulf Coast. Check the range of Aedes aegypti here.
The advice not to get pregnant makes no medical sense. We're not even sure if Zika causes birth defects and, if it does, it's certainly at a very low level compared to all the other background causes of birth defects. It's this kind of things that causes panic when the medical background doesn't justify the risk.
Quoting 181. HaoleboySurfEC:

Broccoli, spinach, lettuce, snap peas...cool weather stuff.


I've put in broccoli, peas, and lettuce in between our 27 raindrops today. It looks like we should have at least 10 days above freezing. That should get them in good shape to resist the cold that's still inevitably coming later in February. One of my requirements for a move away from California was a place that I could still plant a winter garden. The first eight years here in SE Alabama were pretty good for winter gardens. From 2014 on, it's been pretty brutal though. I'm hoping to see a winter when the nighttime temperatures maybe stay at 30 or above rather than the teens and single digits like I've had since 2014.
Quoting 179. Jedkins01:



Yeah that's pretty bad, but at least it's already saturated there. The worst is when heavy stuff is expected and there is a nasty drought ongoing.

We haven't gotten anything, but we weren't expecting much, so it's not a major disappointment.
I'm not sure how the WPC got it so wrong here and, except for being a little further south than forecast, mostly got it right in Florida. Just the fact the precipitation was all ahead of the front mitigated against any heavy rain. Some places in north central Alabama did near an inch but it was a complete fizzle here. It was like watching a grape turn into a raisin watching it on radar last night. I'm hoping next week's possible severe weather also turns out to be a fizzle. One thing that Florida and I have in common this winter is that any storms even marginally capable of producing a tornado does produce a tornado, and more than one here. All EF-0 or EF-1's so far, but that luck is probably not going to hold as we get into our real severe storm season.

Quoting 169. Astrometeor:



It didn't happen? Cause according to the first page of Google results to "North Pole above freezing" it did.
You seem like a smart young man and I believe you know better than to base your final answer on a google search. A little research would have provided a different result accord to the experts that run the buoys 
Quoting 178. NNYer:


Trying to see your point here. Could you elaborate?
I shall elaborate and translate his point...

  • AFLAC!!

Quoting 174. Naga5000:



It's debatable, and frankly, inconsequential. This is just the case of a usual suspect trying to drudge up a controversy.
It is not debatable according to experts,  it is only inconsequential if you don't care about facts.  It has happened before so this would hardly be groundbreaking. It just did not happen this time and I believe facts matter. 
Quoting 189. nymore:


You seem like a smart young man and I believe you know better than to base your final answer on a google search. A little research would have provided a different result accord to the experts that run the buoys 


I clicked on a few articles and did some scanning, a couple (Capital Weather, Huffington Post, Canada's version of the NWS) noted that the closest buoy to the North Pole reached 33F, and a research team that was on the ice some distance off noted a sharp increase of temperature that they had never measured before.
Quoting 189. nymore:


You seem like a smart young man and I believe you know better than to base your final answer on a google search. A little research would have provided a different result accord to the experts that run the buoys 
Let's see how this goes. Would you also admit that "North Pole Above Freezing" headline was really just clickbait? The real story was not if the North Pole hit 33. It's that the Arctic in general was 40 to 50 degrees above average at the height of winter darkness. Seems like kind of bigger story than one data point.
Quoting 191. nymore:


It is not debatable according to experts,  it is only inconsequential if you don't care about facts.  It has happened before so this would hardly be groundbreaking. It just did not happen this time and I believe facts matter. 
Well, no, it is debatable by experts. They are currently debating if the buoy data was good enough to use as a proxy of the North Pole hitting 33. It has happened before, or at least buoys near the North Pole have been above freezing before. It has never happened in December before, so that's why it was a story. Did it make it to 33? I guess those that know will make a ruling on it at some point, but it's the overall heat in the Arctic that's the issue, not just one day at Santa's workshop...or at least Mom always told me that's the address of Santa's workshop. :-)

Quoting 192. Astrometeor:



I clicked on a few articles and did some scanning, a couple (Capital Weather, Huffington Post, Canada's version of the NWS) noted that the closest buoy to the North Pole reached 33F, and a research team that was on the ice some distance off noted a sharp increase of temperature that they had never measured before.
Lets go to the experts who run the buoys not Huffpost or CWG. Tis is from North Pole Environmental Observatory.

id-Winter 2015-16 North Pole-Region Warming Events
  • Buoy map air temp. progression from the International Arctic Buoy Programme
  • North Pole region air temperature December 26-31 from AXIB Buoy 132472

How we know the air temperature at the North Pole:
The National Science Foundation supported North Pole Environmental Observatory (NPEO) regularly deploys surface drifting buoys of the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) in the North Pole region. Usually this is done in the spring with aircraft landing on the sea ice. However, in August 2015, the US Coast Guard with additional support from agencies such as the Office of Naval Research and NOAA carried out a ground breaking atmosphere-ice-ocean observation flight to the North Pole. This grew out of our Office of Naval Research-funded Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys done by Coast Guard Station Kodiak in their C130 aircraft. The North Pole flight included air-dropping an IABP satellite-tracked, drifting, meteorological buoy (AXIB) measuring  atmospheric temperature and pressure. Because it was dropped at the Pole in August, this AXIB, buoy 132472, at 87.5°N, 12°W, is currently our closest to the Pole.

What the NPEO/IABP buoys tell us about the 12/30/2015 warming event:
AXIB 132472’s data along with that of other NPEO-deployed buoys are found at the North Pole Environmental Observatory. As of 12/30/2015 at 1800Z, buoy 132472 was reporting the air temperature as -23.5°C (-10°F) which is pretty normal. However, looking at data from the last two days, courtesy of the Wendy Ermold of theInternational Arctic Buoy Programme we see that over a couple of days the AXIB reported temperature near the North Pole rose significantly. It was -37°C at 1800Z, 12/28/2015 and reached a maximum of -8.52°C on 12/30/2015 at 0300Z, quite a rapid transition. So in summary, the forecast warming was qualitatively pretty good even though temperatures at the Pole didn’t reach up to the freezing point. In fairness the forecast front was very sharp so if it didn’t get quite as far north, that would explain temperatures at the Pole being significantly cooler than forecast.

1/1/2016 Update on what NPEO/IABP buoys tell us about the 12/30/2015 warming event:
Several bloggers and reporters brought it to our attention that at least one buoy near the North Pole had exceeded 0°C. The Washington Post reported reported that “WMO ID Buoy 6400476 at a latitude of 87.45 degrees North hit a high temperature of 0.7 degrees C…” This was not one of the buoys that NPEO deployed in 2015, but Wendy found this buoy in the IABP database as imei 300234062788470. To get a better idea of how the warming progressed through the Central Arctic Ocean, Wendy has put together a sequence of mapswith all the IABP listed buoy positions color coded by temperature.

For reference to earlier reports, the NPEO-deployed AXIB 132472 and WMO 6400476 (300234062788470) are identified by name. One can scroll through hourly maps and see the buoys report the passage of the warming through the North Pole region. At 0300Z on 12/30 AXIB 132472 at about 87.5°N, 44°W reached its maximum temperature of –8.52° C. At 1300Z on 12/30. WMO 6400476 (300234062788470) reached its maximum temperature of +0.7° C at about 87.5°N, 151°E, almost exactly on the opposite side of the Pole from the AXIB. Simple interpolation would suggest that the Pole never rose above freezing, but it is more significant that above-freezing temperatures actually projected farther into the Arctic Ocean than the Pole.

It may be even more significant that the front passed the Pole in East longitudes, on the Russian side of the Pole. The projection of low atmospheric pressure associated with this storm event promotes a high Arctic Oscillation Index and forces a counterclockwise (cyclonic) wind pattern that accelerates the Transpolar Drift of sea ice across the Basin and out Fram Strait. By itself, a few hours of temperatures above freezing will likely not have a big impact on the Arctic Ocean ice pack. But accelerating the export of ice in winter depletes the Arctic Ocean of older thicker ice, leaving the extent of the thinner ice pack more sensitive to summer melt. In this connection, perhaps the most significant NPEO buoy result (see the NPEO 2015 Data Buoy Drift Map tab) is that the NPEO buoys deployed near the North Pole in April are already (on 1/1/2016) south of 76°N in the Greenland Sea. In the early years (~2000-2005) of NPEO it typically took buoys deployed near the Pole one year to reach Fram Strait at 80°N. The roughly factor of two increase in speed shown is partly due to decreases in ice thickness and strength, but it is safe to predict that if cyclonic storm events like this one ending 2015 continue penetrating the eastern Arctic Ocean, they will increase ice export and reduce summer 2016 ice extent. 

— Jamie Morison for the NPEO

 

Quoting 192. Astrometeor:



I clicked on a few articles and did some scanning, a couple (Capital Weather, Huffington Post, Canada's version of the NWS) noted that the closest buoy to the North Pole reached 33F, and a research team that was on the ice some distance off noted a sharp increase of temperature that they had never measured before.
Wait a minute. You, as a college student hoping to become a weather guy at some point, has other things more important than spend time scanning the web for absolute evidence that the North Pole made it above freezing on December 30, 2015? It's OK. When you're an old retired geezer like me, you won't have anything better to do. Except that Google will probably have implanted an automatic search engine in your brain. That way you don't have to put up with a pesky keyboard.
Does it matter if it was 32F or 30F? It was 50F above normal at the North Pole in December, and likely was again in January. Arguing over two or three degrees seems just a bit pointless given the larger context.

In other news, the dreaded landslide Special Weather Statement has been posted. This is in addition to the region already having everything from a Wind Warning on the coast, to Flood Watches for the rivers flowing off the mountains, and Winter Weather Advisories for the mountains.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY- EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA- NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY- CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES- SNOHOMISH - KING - PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-
1211 PM PST WED JAN 27 2016

...HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON... RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE TO HIGH LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AND ABOUT A HALF AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS INCHES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL WILL BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES. BECAUSE OF THE LONG TERM SATURATION OF THE SOIL AND THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN TONIGHT...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING ISOLATED LANDSLIDES IN LANDSLIDE PRONE AREAS. THESE AREAS INCLUDE STEEP HILLSIDES AND COASTAL BLUFFS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT CONDITIONS...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE...SELECT HYDROLOGY...AND THEN SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LINKS TO THE LANDSLIDE INFORMATION PAGES.
Quoting 195. nymore:


Lets go to the experts who run the buoys not Huffpost or CWG. Tis is from North Pole Environmental Observatory.
All of which is pretty much what the HuffPost article said. One buoy reached 33. The point remains that the Arctic is continuing to warm and one day one way or another won't mean much to history. You should provide that link to the CWG so Angela can make a proper apology for getting it wrong though. Seems pretty important to you.
Quoting 186. sar2401:

The advice not to get pregnant makes no medical sense. We're not even sure if Zika causes birth defects and, if it does, it's certainly at a very low level compared to all the other background causes of birth defects. It's this kind of things that causes panic when the medical background doesn't justify the risk.


Well tell your daughter everything is A OK.


Quoting 23. sar2401:

There's only one answer to the post you quote (which, BTW, has already been removed) ;

AFLAC!!

It's brief, but strangely cogent. To the point, but actually has no point whatsoever. It's the perfect answer to posts that make no sense.

My mothers response to an incoherent remark was "What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?"
Quoting 177. Jedkins01:



Botched forecast?
Tampa doesn't even forecast for Gainsville, and nearly every station in the Ruskin/Tampa forecast office viewing areas has had 1 inch plus today and experienced at least 8-12 hours of rain.
The only area that didn't get much was Citrus county and Levy county, but the NWS in Ruskin was only forecasting 0.25-0.50 up there and had lower pops, so yeah...

That's hardly a botched forecast.
Yeah, Jacksonville handles the Gainesville area. I'd take them any day over the slugs in Birmingham. My current forecast is for a 50% chance of showers tonight and 40% before 11:00 am tomorrow. I'd buy a 20/20 CYA forecast to cover some rogue shower that might pop up. The nearest rain is over in Georgia, and it's moving away from me. Maybe they'll do a refresh after...whatever it is they're doing, instead of looking at radar.
Quoting 199. RobertWC:
1
Well tell your daughter everything is A OK.
It is, Bob. If I had a daughter, I'd be a lot more concerned about her drinking or smoking while pregnant than the astronomically small chance of her getting Zika. There are things that deserve some arm flapping. Zika isn't one of them.
Quoting 200. riverat544:


My mothers response to an incoherent remark was "What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?"
That's a good old saw, but it takes way too much time to type and kind of remember if I got the tea and China in the right order. AFLAC!! is a lot more punchy, and it already has a duck spokes...uh, duck. C'mon, admit it now. When you see AFLAC!! , the first thing that pops into your mind is that duck running around spouting off. Very similar to what we see from some the posts here. Besides, I like that duck. :-)
Quoting 197. Seattleite:

Does it matter if it was 32F or 30F? It was 50F above normal at the North Pole in December, and likely was again in January. Arguing over two or three degrees seems just a bit pointless given the larger context.

In other news, the dreaded landslide Special Weather Statement has been posted. This is in addition to the region already having everything from a Wind Warning on the coast, to Flood Watches for the rivers flowing off the mountains, and Winter Weather Advisories for the mountains.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY- EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA- NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY- CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES- SNOHOMISH - KING - PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-
1211 PM PST WED JAN 27 2016

...HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON... RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE TO HIGH LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AND ABOUT A HALF AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS INCHES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL WILL BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES. BECAUSE OF THE LONG TERM SATURATION OF THE SOIL AND THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN TONIGHT...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING ISOLATED LANDSLIDES IN LANDSLIDE PRONE AREAS. THESE AREAS INCLUDE STEEP HILLSIDES AND COASTAL BLUFFS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT CONDITIONS...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE...SELECT HYDROLOGY...AND THEN SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LINKS TO THE LANDSLIDE INFORMATION PAGES.
Those rivers are going to start coming up next. Might be tough days ahead on the North Coast.
Quoting 174. Naga5000:



It's debatable, and frankly, inconsequential. This is just the case of a usual suspect trying to drudge up a controversy.
Great minds think alike. What have you been up to? I haven't seen you much around the swamp lately. Of course, I've been banned so much lately I just might have missed you. :-)
sar2401:

You are are a very bright fellow , but in same sense, you are a very blind fellow.

You think this new world is your old world. It is not.

It is a world. like none of us has ever seen. to pretend it is like the world you knew, Is to be a fool.
Quoting 187. sar2401:

I've put in broccoli, peas, and lettuce in between our 27 raindrops today. It looks like we should have at least 10 days above freezing. That should get them in good shape to resist the cold that's still inevitably coming later in February. One of my requirements for a move away from California was a place that I could still plant a winter garden. The first eight years here in SE Alabama were pretty good for winter gardens. From 2014 on, it's been pretty brutal though. I'm hoping to see a winter when the nighttime temperatures maybe stay at 30 or above rather than the teens and single digits like I've had since 2014.


This is one time of year when I envy southern gardeners. The first eight inches of my digging is through snow. I have good greens but can't find them. Even my mature brussels sprouts are totally buried.

Our soil often doesn't freeze much in winter though and cold hardy seeds like lettuce and peas can be planted. Peas do rot in cold wet soil but I've seen them volunteer from missed pods in February before. Potatoes planted in late fall will survive the winter if the frost line doesn't get down to them; many winters it doesn't


I normally start heavy planting the first week in April here in DC.
205. sar2401

Of course, I've been banned so much lately I just might have missed you.

Your not the Lone Ranger .
Quoting 196. sar2401:

Wait a minute. You, as a college student hoping to become a weather guy at some point, has other things more important than spend time scanning the web for absolute evidence that the North Pole made it above freezing on December 30, 2015? It's OK. When you're an old retired geezer like me, you won't have anything better to do. Except that Google will probably have implanted an automatic search engine in your brain. That way you don't have to put up with a pesky keyboard.


Well, I was doing my American Judiciary homework before my friend came and we stared at weird hurricane tracks for 20 minutes. :P
Quoting 123. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Shasta Lake up 47 feet in less than 3 weeks! 100 feet to go to top that expletive!

They probably won't let it overflow btw.

I went to the California water department to check it out. Lake Shasta's current volume is 2,179,395 acre feet up (sharply since mid-January) from around 1,300,000 AF on December 1, 2015. The total capacity of the reservoir is 4,552,000 AF. So it went from 28% full on Dec. 1 to 47% currently. A long way to go to fill up. Link
Back to the real world

Florida mayors to Rubio: We’re going under, take climate change seriously

A group of mayors from communities in south Florida has released an open letter to one of their senators, Marco Rubio, in which they call for a meeting to discuss the challenges posed by climate change. The mayors, from communities like Key Biscayne, Miami, and West Palm Beach, say that the challenge of climate change requires a strong presidential commitment to action, one they argue Rubio is lacking.

Link
212. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, ERAU
PERIOD:: 20160127;1500_28;0345z
SAT TYPE:: Filtered blend of 2 NOAA & ERAU products, final product not a NOAA nor ERAU product.
NOTE1:: Did not enhance or adjust to the best as i did the previous years, too much work.
NOTE2:: 90 mins before and after the sun sweeps THE DAYLIGHT SIDE of the FUNKTOPGAL IMAGERY UNDER-REPRESENTS the PRECIPITATION AMOUNT.
NOTE3:: HOW TO READ - The brighter whites represent the highest precipitation of the plateau colour it is surrounded by.

Grey = least precip, bright white on grey means drizzle,
Blue = light precip., bright white on blue mean light to moderate precip.,
Green = moderate precip., bright white on Green means moderate to heavy precip.

[WxU fitted, 592x469]

View https://youtu.be/0kt9U9MBXpU on YouTube org. dimension 960x240





Good night all
214. JRRP
hmm may be modoki style
This trucker got video footage of the tornado crossing the road in Broward county SE FL, as cars were tossed in the process:

Link


This trucker was pretty smart and figured out it was a tornado, so he came to a stop earlier, a few other people didn't come to a stop until it was too late, they drove right into the path and then stopped. A couple of the cars got lofted leading to a scary and dangerous experience. I think one of the reported injuries occurred here.
I find it really crazy where the "Main stream guy" thinks his state isn't being drowned. by sea level rise.

We are clearly in the rabbit hole.



Quoting 186. sar2401:

The advice not to get pregnant makes no medical sense. We're not even sure if Zika causes birth defects and, if it does, it's certainly at a very low level compared to all the other background causes of birth defects. It's this kind of things that causes panic when the medical background doesn't justify the risk.
Center for Disease Control disagrees on the side of caution, therefor they have issued a level-2 travel warning: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/pregnancy/question-answer s.html . It is true we do not know for sure, so we have no definite idea of the level of risk at this time. I can agree with you, though, that panic will not help.
Quoting 184. sar2401:

Did you take a malaria prophylaxis before you went? Did your doctor draw a blood sample and have it sent to a tropical disease lab? If he did, what did it show? If he didn't, you need to have a blood sample tested ASAP. Your description cover a lot of tropical diseases that get better on their own in young people. It's also descriptive of malaria, and rural areas of Guatemala are endemic with malaria. The symptoms of malaria generally cease after a few weeks, as long as it doesn't kill you. It then continues to live and reproduce in your body and can cause grave problems later in life.


No I didn't get one, however I don't think it was Malaria because while it was bad, it lasted about 3 days, which is a lot less than Malaria, and there are some certain other nitty gritty details about Malaria that made it differ some from what I had.
Also I have gotten blood tested at least a couple times before for a bacterial infection I got under my toe nail from flood water a few years back. Given I have been blood tested, I would think anything odd would have showed up.

Also yeah, it was odd that they only asked me about my symptoms rather than do tests, maybe because I was in high school, I wasn't honest enough with them just how bad it was. I just remember they didn't give me a blood test, just a basic medical check up test and some questioning, then discussed the apparent results of my symptoms, they say they weren't sure, but that I appeared to be showing signs of recovery by the time I went in. So maybe that's why they didn't do a more comprehensive checkup.
Quoting 165. sar2401:

Let's not make this into Ebola 2.0. Zika has been known since the the 1940's. It has been commonly reported in Central America since the 1950's. The main risk is for birth defects if contracted by pregnant women but even for pregnant women, the rate of becoming symptomatic is about the same 20% of the those infected in the general public. A pregnant woman had a much greater chance of birth defects in her newborn from drinking alcohol while pregnant than Zika. The 20% of those that do become symptomatic report very mild flu like symptoms that usually disappears in a few days. The mortality rate is so near zero that it disappears into the background rate of people dying from the flu. The CDC has detailed information available. There's no doubt that all tropical diseases will increase in a warmer climate. We are not at that stage yet. A lot of irresponsible information about Zika is spreading on the internet. This is not a current public health emergency.


Every time I see something like this, it's an instant face palm.

From the CDC, here are the top ten leading causes of death in the US:

Heart disease: 611,105
Cancer: 584,881
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 149,205
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 130,557
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,978
Alzheimer's disease: 84,767
Diabetes: 75,578
Influenza and Pneumonia: 56,979
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 47,112
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 41,149

Yet if you listen to the news, you'd think Ebola/Zika/whatever and ISIS were on the verge of wiping out humanity. It's stupidity that's so absurd that it's comical.

Where's the panic over obesity and cancer? Where's our war against stairs and cars? We're willing to throw trillions of dollars down the terrorist boogeyman hole, but what about curing this diseases which kill orders of magnitude more people in a year than terrorists have over their existence? #lol360nologic #wrongpriorites

Zika is not a significant threat. Stuffing your face with that extra large fries is. :P
Quoting 216. RobertWC:

I find it really crazy where the "Main stream guy" thinks his state isn't being drowned. by sea level rise.

We are clearly in the rabbit hole.




down the hole we go for its getting late on with the show as it must go down
Quoting 219. Xyrus2000:



Stuffing your face with that extra large fries is. :P

and don't forget 24 pak of nuggets with sweet and sour dips o and some napkins please
24 hr total rain here was 4.45 inches east of Naples, FL. 9 pm 1/27 through 9 pm 1/28.
Getting more rain as I type this!
Quoting 218. Jedkins01:



No I didn't get one, however I don't think it was Malaria because while it was bad, it lasted about 3 days, which is a lot less than Malaria, and there are some certain other nitty gritty details about Malaria that made it differ some from what I had.
Also I have gotten blood tested at least a couple times before for a bacterial infection I got under my toe nail from flood water a few years back. Given I have been blood tested, I would think anything odd would have showed up.

Also yeah, it was odd that they only asked me about my symptoms rather than do tests, maybe because I was in high school, I wasn't honest enough with them just how bad it was. I just remember they didn't give me a blood test, just a basic medical check up test and some questioning, then discussed the apparent results of my symptoms, they say they weren't sure, but that I appeared to be showing signs of recovery by the time I went in. So maybe that's why they didn't do a more comprehensive checkup.

Here's the thing, Jed. A normal blood test is looking for things like white cell count and typical bacteria. Unless a sample is sent to a lab specializing in tropical diseases, a typical lab isn't looking for them and won't spot them. The chances are excellent you just got some unusual bacteria in your gut, and feeling like you were going to die is nature's way of not actually killing you...just making you feel like it might happen. It's usually because we norte americanos just cant resist all that luscious looking fruit at the hotel buffet. C'mon, now, tell the truth. You just had eat that pineapple or papaya or whatever fruit you didn't wash yourself, right? That's the most efficient way to get that crud in your gut. I wouldn't know, however, only reading about such things in text books, because I never ate any of that fruit...except for those grapes...and maybe that pineapple...a few times. :-)

It's not likely you got malaria, but the chance, just like a tornado coming down your street, is not zero. Talk to your doctor and see if he or she thinks a tropical disease blood test is worth it. Everyone's reaction to malaria is different, so the symptoms that you've read about are only typical ones, and we all know you're not typical, and I mean that in a good way.. Amiright?

Now, one last thing, since SAR is in his grandpa preaching mode. Never, ever again go anywhere in the tropics without taking a course of Chloroquine (or whatever your doctor recommends) before you leave and while you're away. It's cheap, doesn't make you feel too awful while you're taking it, but protects you from one of the most insidious diseases on earth. It has nasty, lifelong complications. My dad was in the Pacific for almost three years during The Big One, and didn't take his Atabrine because he heard it made the engine room controls down below get kind of flabby. As a result, he got malaria, and it wasn't properly treated for almost five years. He spent the rest of his life suffering from the disease, including terrible rheumatism and heart problems. Those mosquitoes know when a nice healthy white guy has shown up, and then the attack is on. I have spent lots of time in the tropics and I never contracted a mosquito borne illness. Those pineapples were another story, but you already know about that.
`Talk about some orographic lifting ! 48" to a high of 91" near the high peaks east of Yosemite. Good to see the river aim at the Central Sierra. When that hose is pointed in just the right direction, the Sierra's can get crazy amounts of snow. Looks to be a very good snow producer in the InterMountain West after heading out of California.

Quoting 219. Xyrus2000:



Every time I see something like this, it's an instant face palm.

From the CDC, here are the top ten leading causes of death in the US:

Heart disease: 611,105
Cancer: 584,881
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 149,205
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 130,557
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,978
Alzheimer's disease: 84,767
Diabetes: 75,578
Influenza and Pneumonia: 56,979
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 47,112
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 41,149

Yet if you listen to the news, you'd think Ebola/Zika/whatever and ISIS were on the verge of wiping out humanity. It's stupidity that's so absurd that it's comical.

Where's the panic over obesity and cancer? Where's our war against stairs and cars? We're willing to throw trillions of dollars down the terrorist boogeyman hole, but what about curing this diseases which kill orders of magnitude more people in a year than terrorists have over their existence? #lol360nologic #wrongpriorites

Zika is not a significant threat. Stuffing your face with that extra large fries is. :P

Yes, we don't like worrying about what's most likely to kill us because...well...it's likely to kill us, and who wants to worry about that? Something like Zika is a lot more fun since we can get all arm flappy over it while knowing it's not going to kill us. Well, it's not impossible, but about as likely to kill you as winning the Powerball...twice.

Since I'm about to turn the magic corner of no-kidding geezerhood next month, that list has taken on a little more meaning. Let's see.

  • Heart disease. Check. I already have that. 
  • Cancer. Not yet, but the longer you live, the more you're just waiting to find out what kind of cancer will kill you..
  • Chronic lower respiratory disease. Check That has already tried to kill me.
  • Accidents. I don't know about that one. I've never been in a car accident in my life, and slipping the shower isn't a problem - yet.
  • Stroke. Check. I'm certainly at risk for that after smoking for 45 years. I did quit six months, two and...uh...alright after midnight, so I can move that pointer to an additional day. Not that I'm counting though.
  • Alzheimer's ? Some really mean people might say I have that already. Huh? I forgot the rest of that thought. I'm OK though. What?
  • Diabetes. Escaped that one so far but, at the rate I'm scarfing down these chocolate donuts, that might not last.
  • Influenza and Pneumonia. I have a cold right now, but it's just a cold. Chocolate donuts are good for colds. I got my flu and pneumonia shots, so I hope I'm OK. 
  • Nephritis and all that. No problems there. I can tell because I have to pee every time I stand up
  • Suicidal thoughts. Not usually, unless the GFS has screwed up another forecast. But then I want to shoot the model, not myself.

It's actually a sobering list when you run it down. I'm going to start worrying about Zihta instead. She was a really cute girl in fourth period biology. I wonder what ever happened to her?.
Quoting 215. Jedkins01:

This trucker got video footage of the tornado crossing the road in Broward county SE FL, as cars were tossed in the process:

Link


This trucker was pretty smart and figured out it was a tornado, so he came to a stop earlier, a few other people didn't come to a stop until it was too late, they drove right into the path and then stopped. A couple of the cars got lofted leading to a scary and dangerous experience. I think one of the reported injuries occurred here.

Wowsers. I'm amazed he was able to recognize it as a tornado considering it was totally rain wrapped. I can only say truthfully I Might have seen the funnel for about two seconds, and I'm supposedly trained to recognize these kinds of tornadoes. It was one of the things that really scared me about doing Skywarn spotting. Tornadoes are only rarely not rain wrapped in Alabama, and they can sneak up on you in a heartbeat.
Maps show how sea-level rise will swallow Trump’s properties

Oh, the irony. Observe the following GIF, which illustrates how one of Donald “Donnie Boy” Trump’s properties will be affected by rising sea levels in South Florida. The map is part of a great series BuzzFeed created with data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


https://grist.org/climate-energy/maps-show-how-se a-level-rise-will-swallow-trumps-properties/
Quoting 206. RobertWC:

sar2401:

You are are a very bright fellow , but in same sense, you are a very blind fellow.

You think this new world is your old world. It is not.

It is a world. like none of us has ever seen. to pretend it is like the world you knew, Is to be a fool.
Thanks for the compliment...I think. Bob, the world didn't change 180 degrees overnight. If it did, we'd better trash physics and a bunch of other science, since they won't work now. If it's really a world like none of us has seen, that would include you, and being able to tell much about what you haven't seen is...well, pretty difficult. You live in a dark world, Bob. I'd rather not do that until I really do know what's ahead rather than pretending I know.

We have two choices. We can do our best to live our lives as well as we can, helping those in need while we can, and trying not to do our part not make all the problems of the future worse. The other choice is to give up all hope and find a place like Scribbler's, where he'll feed that "we're all doomed" outlook you seem to think is our only option. We're headed for tough times ahead, but the world has always been headed for tough times ahead. I just think a society that survived the greatest holocaust in history from 1935 to 1945 still has a chance. If not, it will sure give me the excuse to have a couple of smokes before things turn to black. :-)
Quoting 227. RobertWC:

Maps show how sea-level rise will swallow Trump%u2019s properties

Oh, the irony. Observe the following GIF, which illustrates how one of Donald %u201CDonnie Boy%u201D Trump%u2019s properties will be affected by rising sea levels in South Florida. The map is part of a great series BuzzFeed created with data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


https://grist.org/climate-energy/maps-show-how-se a-level-rise-will-swallow-trumps-properties/
You've got use the Link function here or no one will be able to read about Trunp's future shock. However, since his buildings are expected to remain above sea level until the end of the century. "Donnie Boy" and I will both be living in a dirt condo by then, so neither one of us will care if he can't get in the front door down in Miami...assuming he could, you know, still walk, and that kind of thing. :-)
Quoting 227. RobertWC:

Maps show how sea-level rise will swallow Trump’s properties

Oh, the irony. Observe the following GIF, which illustrates how one of Donald “Donnie Boy” Trump’s properties will be affected by rising sea levels in South Florida. The map is part of a great series BuzzFeed created with data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


https://grist.org/climate-energy/maps-show-how-se a-level-rise-will-swallow-trumps-properties/


I thought he was going to have the Mexican Government build a border wall and pay for it! Well, let them build huge seawalls around all the coastlines and pay for them also.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
540 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 01/27/16 TORNADO EVENT...

...EF-1 TORNADO CUTS ACROSS PARTS OF COCONUT CREEK AND POMPANO BEACH...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.35 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 35 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 2

START DATE: JAN 27 2016
START TIME: 930 AM EST
START LOCATION: 3 SSE COCONUT CREEK / BROWARD / FL
START LAT/LON: 26.2349 / -80.1809

END DATE: JAN 27 2016
END TIME: 936 AM EST
END LOCATION: 2 ESE COCONUT CREEK / BROWARD/ FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.2601 / -80.1568

SURVEY_SUMMARY: NWS STORM SURVEY CONDUCTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DETERMINED THAT AN EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND ATLANTIC AVE AND
LIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE ALONG COPANS ROAD.

DETAILS OF THE DAMAGE INVESTIGATED DURING THE SURVEY INCLUDE:

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NW 2ND COURT AND
NW 43RD AVE AND TRAVELED NORTHEAST LEADING TO SEVERAL SNAPPED AND
UPROOTED HARDWOOD TREES AND DAMAGE TO FENCES ACROSS NW
42ND...PALMETTO DRIVE...AND COCONUT CREEK BOULEVARD.

DISCONTINUOUS DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES WAS REPORTED ACROSS
THE BROWARD COLLEGE-NORTH CAMPUS...BEFORE THE TORNADO
STRENGTHENED AND TOSSED SEVERAL CARS IN THE NORTH PARKING LOT NEAR
THE HEALTH SCIENCES BUILDING.

ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CAMPUS...A COCONUT CREEK COMMUNITY BUS WAS
FLIPPED AS THE TORNADO CROSSED COCONUT CREEK PARKWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE LEADING TO ONE INJURY. THE TORNADO THEN
INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED NORTH INTO THE WYNMOOR VILLAGE CONDO
COMPLEX WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. NUMEROUS
LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SEVERAL LIGHT POLES WERE SNAPPED.
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE WAS DONE TO FENCES ALONG THE PROPERTY. SEVERAL
MID-LEVEL CONDO BUILDINGS SUSTAINED MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE
CONSISTING OF ROOFING MATERIAL AND PORTIONS OF THE CONCRETE BLOCK
BEING PEELED OFF AND THROWN SEVERAL YARDS. THIS MATERIAL DAMAGED
NUMEROUS CARS IN THE PARKING LOT. ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE WAS ALSO
REPORTED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE COMPLEX...INCLUDING PALM
TREES THAT WERE SNAPPED IN HALF AND DEBARKED.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED THE FLORIDA'S TURNPIKE NEAR THE MILE
MARKER 67 ENTRANCE AND EXIT RAMPS. SEVERAL CARS WERE TOSSED AND
DAMAGED ALONG THE TURNPIKE. ONE CAR TRAVELING SOUTHBOUND ON THE
TURNPIKE WAS FLIPPED INTO THE NORTHBOUND LANE RESULTING IN ONE
MINOR INJURY. A TRACTOR TRAILER WAS ALSO FLIPPED ON THE SOUTHBOUND
OFF RAMP.

THE TORNADO THEN WEAKENED AS IT MOVED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TURNPIKE WHERE LARGE LIMBS WHERE BROKEN OFF SEVERAL TREES ALONG
WITH SMALLER TREES UPROOTED AND POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG
BLOUNT ROAD. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED TO THE NORTH HOMELESS
ASSISTANCE CENTER IN THIS AREA.

A TRACTOR TRAILER WAS FLIPPED AT THE WHOLE FOODS WAREHOUSE ALONG
NW 19TH STREET AND BLOUT ROAD...BEFORE THE TORNADO THEN TRAVELED
FURTHER NORTHEAST CAUSING MODERATE TREE DAMAGE ALONG NW 25TH AVE.
THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR COPANS ROAD AND NW 25TH STREET.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA. NWS MIAMI WOULD LIKE TO THANK LOCAL AND COUNTY
OFFICIALS AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC FOR THEIR HELP IN THIS SURVEY.

$$

NWS MIAMI SURVEY TEAM: SANTOS/KONARIK/DELLINGER/MOSES/MOLLEDA
NWS Miami has a flood watch for most of south florida today,area's down there will get yet another 2-4 inches of rain today...gee some area's down there may come close to 8 inches or more of rain in 2 days..whew.
all it takes is one person coming home from latin america infected with Zika for it to spread into n.america. with all this rain s florida has had the time could be soon. its unavoidable eventually everyone is bit.
cold start to 2016
There were also 18 all time COLD records --But that is just counting the East Coast of the United States!!
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-col d-early-march
Quoting 235. MountainMan41:

There were also 18 all time COLD records --But that is just counting the East Coast of the United States!!
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-col d-early-march


Those are record lows for the month of March, not all time. That much is very clear in the article.
Quoting 235. MountainMan41:

There were also 18 all time COLD records --But that is just counting the East Coast of the United States!!
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-col d-early-march


But that doesnt count... you know... because its not global warming. .....
Quoting 235. MountainMan41:

There were also 18 all time COLD records --But that is just counting the East Coast of the United States!!
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-col d-early-march
Well, the blog entry was about all-time national temperature records, while your link is about monthly COLD records. Not the same thing. You know?

Very wet down here in Naples. Officially 1.9" yesterday for a month-to-date total of 5.74". (And we probably picked up at least half an inch overnight on top of that). We're under a flood watch until late this afternoon, with more on the way;



After that, dry and cooler for just a day, then back up to the mid-70s/low-60s paradigm.
Short hello (as I've got a lot things to do these days) from still very balmy and sunny Germany which is awaiting strong rains this weekend, though. One storm after the other will batter the British Isles:

Storm Gertrude sparks amber warning
BBC, 14 minutes ago
A storm officially named Gertrude by the Met Office has been forecast to bring heavy rain, high winds, snow and ice to Scotland on Friday.




Very high waves will come along with "Gertrude". Source WU.

--------------------------------------------
Australia: Melbourne's south-east braces for dangerous thunderstorm
The Guardian, Thursday 28 January 2016 03.40 GMT
Flash-flooding, hail stones and high winds expected as emergency services continue to mop up damage caused by a deluge in Geelong on Wednesday

Have a nice day, everyone!
12.24" for the month so far in Fort Myers according to Wunderground.
Quoting 177. Jedkins01:



Botched forecast?
Tampa doesn't even forecast for Gainsville, and nearly every station in the Ruskin/Tampa forecast office viewing areas has had 1 inch plus today and experienced at least 8-12 hours of rain.
The only area that didn't get much was Citrus county and Levy county, but the NWS in Ruskin was only forecasting 0.25-0.50 up there and had lower pops, so yeah...

That's hardly a botched forecast.


I don't live in Gainesville. I live in the middle of Levy.
And we got sunshine.
The "botched" part of the forecast is that we were forecasted to get rain, but got sun....
And that hurts us here in Hardeetown...All us rural farmers who depend on the forecast to set our work by...
Quoting 219. Xyrus2000:



Zika is not a significant threat. Stuffing your face with that extra large fries is. :P



There is an element of tragedy in those microcephalic babies that isn't there in an 80 year old dying of cancer or heart disease. There is also a pretty good chance that for a relatively small expenditure compared with many tens of billions spent on researching treatments for chronic diseases we can develop a vaccine against Zika. Why would we not want to do that? And any investment in removing standing water close-by human settlements will also help against malaria, dengue and other diseases. Why would we not want to do that?

So, panic over Zika, no. But recognize the threat and take sound, effective actions against it, yes, absolutely.
Quoting 155. 62901IL:



I just thought I might tell a story. Sorry if I misread your post.
This virus has nothing to do with climate change.
Quoting 243. NativeSun:

This virus has nothing to do with climate change.


The virus itself, no. It's spread to tropical America, probably not, though that is undoubtedly due to human activity. But, the potential to spread to regions that are not presently hospitable to the Aedes mosquito but will be in a warmer world does indeed have to do with climate change. Does that mean we are doomed? No, because humans clearly survive in the tropics despite a plethora of diseases. But it is a risk we should be aware of and prepared to deal with, rather than brushing off.
mosquitos love a warmer and wetter planet . so yes the spread of Zika has to do with GW. it would seem it would spread faster where human population is more concentrated
Quoting 219. Xyrus2000:



Every time I see something like this, it's an instant face palm.

From the CDC, here are the top ten leading causes of death in the US:

Heart disease: 611,105
Cancer: 584,881
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 149,205
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 130,557
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,978
Alzheimer's disease: 84,767
Diabetes: 75,578
Influenza and Pneumonia: 56,979
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 47,112
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 41,149

Yet if you listen to the news, you'd think Ebola/Zika/whatever and ISIS were on the verge of wiping out humanity. It's stupidity that's so absurd that it's comical.

Where's the panic over obesity and cancer? Where's our war against stairs and cars? We're willing to throw trillions of dollars down the terrorist boogeyman hole, but what about curing this diseases which kill orders of magnitude more people in a year than terrorists have over their existence? #lol360nologic #wrongpriorites

Zika is not a significant threat. Stuffing your face with that extra large fries is. :P

Blame the victims. Gotta love that one. Do the math, extra risks usually do not subtract from existing ones, unless you consider auto fatalities as a form of cancer prevention.
Quoting 223. sar2401:

Never, ever again go anywhere in the tropics without taking a course of Chloroquine (or whatever your doctor recommends) before you leave and while you're away. It's cheap, doesn't make you feel too awful while you're taking it, but protects you from one of the most insidious diseases on earth. It has nasty, lifelong complications. My dad was in the Pacific for almost three years during The Big One, and didn't take his Atabrine because he heard it made the engine room controls down below get kind of flabby. As a result, he got malaria, and it wasn't properly treated for almost five years. He spent the rest of his life suffering from the disease, including terrible rheumatism and heart problems. Those mosquitoes know when a nice healthy white guy has shown up, and then the attack is on. I have spent lots of time in the tropics and I never contracted a mosquito borne illness. Those pineapples were another story, but you already know about that.


Got a bad case of malaria in 85 during some "adventure travel" into denied areas of Burma. I was taking my preventative drugs, fansidar and chlorquinine like I should have but it was a strain resistant to those drugs because the area where I traveled was involved in an long going guerrilla war between the hill tribes and the govt in Rangoon and never had any organized malaria control efforts. The vivax malaria was like a bad case of the flu, headaches, body aches, with high fevers at night and low fevers in the day. The falcaprium malaria was much worse with the fever building and building while the bugs killed your red blood cells until the dead blood cells would clog the capillaries in your brain resulting in a coma and death. Needles to say, I was saved by intense hospitalization before it got to that point.

But there were complications like a damaged spleen, chronic fatigue, and loss of memory. I have recovered from it all except the memory loss which has gotten worse, probably complicated by "Old Timers Disease" and my smoking some "wacky tobaccy" when I was young and dumb.
Good Morning Folks. The big picture across Conus and the forecast for today. Note the classic El Nino split-jet flow with all of the rain across Florida. The most prominent feature is how long the jet pattern and flow is; moisture from the E-Pac is being drawn across the Gulf all the way to the Atlantic on the other side of the Florida Peninsula, then, all the way off the Eastern Seaboard, past the Canadian Maritimes, and over towards Greenland; Amazing:



Quoting 241. JrWeathermanFL:



I don't live in Gainesville. I live in the middle of Levy.
And we got sunshine.
The "botched" part of the forecast is that we were forecasted to get rain, but got sun....
And that hurts us here in Hardeetown...All us rural farmers who depend on the forecast to set our work by...


Yesterday, the majority of the rain was from Tampa to near Orlando and areas to the south. From Fort Myers to the south most locations saw 3"-5" yesterday. We officially received 3.29" here in Fort Myers. Already .55" today.
And as mentioned in my earlier comment, 12.24" for the month here.

Local met said we could see another 3" of rain today. We will see if that materializes. If it does it will be crazy, because we only average 1.92" for the month here.

It's more unusual to see heavy rain across southern Florida than north Florida this time of year.
Quoting 241. JrWeathermanFL:



I don't live in Gainesville. I live in the middle of Levy.
And we got sunshine.
The "botched" part of the forecast is that we were forecasted to get rain, but got sun....
And that hurts us here in Hardeetown...All us rural farmers who depend on the forecast to set our work by...


Wel Junior, I'm up in northern Levy near Corbin's farm and I was expecting rain also.....but after a seeing a few spritzes on the windshield in the morn.....nuttin' for the rest of the day. And after looking at NWS regional radar & water vapor & IR loops in the early morn,,,,and seeing the "washout" was setting up down south, I went about my business outside.

Now today I might get something done this morn, but I plan on settling down inside later when it does look like we might get some precip.

Point is, m'friend.....the forecast is a guide for us.....but sometimes you gotta be your own forecast :-]
Quoting 241. JrWeathermanFL:



I don't live in Gainesville. I live in the middle of Levy.
And we got sunshine.
The "botched" part of the forecast is that we were forecasted to get rain, but got sun....
And that hurts us here in Hardeetown...All us rural farmers who depend on the forecast to set our work by...


I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at, but this event was extremely well forecasted. Virtually all of the weather prediction agencies were calling for the bulk of the rain to stay south of the I-4 corridor, and that's what happened. Of course you're going to have a chance of rain in your forecast, dewpoints are in the mid to high 60s, PWATs are near record highs, and there is a screaming jet flowing right into the state. It may just so happened that you didn't get the rain you were expecting, but calling it a botched forecast is incorrect.
And finally, note the US highs for today when juxtaposed against the jet flow; no polar air getting down into the Plains, warm high pressure in place, and some very warm temps in the Plains today (in January):
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


The highlights for today:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2016


Valid 12Z Thu Jan 28 2016 - 12Z Sat Jan 30 2016

...Heavy precipitation possible for portions of the Pacific Northwest and
northern California...

...Above average temperatures expected for much of the central U.S...

A nearly stationary boundary parked over central Florida will maintain
showers and thunderstorms for portions of the southeast.
1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast across south Florida, with locally
heavier amounts possible. Ponding, and or flash flooding, may occur during
periods of intense rainfall.
This boundary will move offshore tonight and
into Friday.

Snow showers are expected across the Great Lakes region as a low pressure
system moves through. Snow accumulations are expected to be on the lighter
side, with amounts generally less than 6 inches.
The most significant areas of snowfall accumulation will occur where there
is some lake effect enhancement, downwind of the Great Lakes. A warm front
ahead of another area of low pressure will result in scattered areas of
generally light snow and freezing rain across portions of the northern
plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.

Temperatures will continue to run 10 to 20 degrees above climatology for
late January for much of the central CONUS.

High pressure at the mid and upper-levels will expand across the central
U.S.

Quoting 237. swflEagle:



But that doesnt count... you know... because its not global warming. .....


It doesn't count because we're not talking about records for a particular month.
I am not an expert on the science (why I learn on this Blog from the posts) but as a lay person, a strong El Nino combined with global warming equals a very mild, and relatively short, Winter for many parts of the US-Northern Hemisphere along with some interesting jet stream dips like the one causing the record lows across parts of Asia in the mid-latitudes:


Quoting 242. science101:



There is an element of tragedy in those microcephalic babies that isn't there in an 80 year old dying of cancer or heart disease. There is also a pretty good chance that for a relatively small expenditure compared with many tens of billions spent on researching treatments for chronic diseases we can develop a vaccine against Zika. Why would we not want to do that? And any investment in removing standing water close-by human settlements will also help against malaria, dengue and other diseases. Why would we not want to do that?

So, panic over Zika, no. But recognize the threat and take sound, effective actions against it, yes, absolutely.


Who said we shouldn't? It's perfectly reasonable to take preventative measures. It's perfectly reasonable to develop treatments and vaccines and tests.

But is the disease bringing on the zombie apocalypse? Is it a world ending catastrophe? Is it going to wipe out humanity overnight? Not remotely. But the media/social panic would have one thinking otherwise, and that's dangerous. Why? Because people vote and the more fear people have the less rational their decisions are.

For example, Zika is a tropical virus moving up towards the US. You have candidate A who says we should increase medical and biological research to find better cures and treatments for diseases. You have candidate B saying they're going to build a wall along Mexico and prevent any immigration to "stop Zika". Who get's the vote? After a couple of TV ads showing deformed infants being linked to "dirty evil Mexicans", candidate B will likely win by a landslide.

Remember how effective the "Wolf" ad was for Ronald Reagan?
Quoting 254. tampabaymatt:



I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at, but this event was extremely well forecasted. Virtually all of the weather prediction agencies were calling for the bulk of the rain to stay south of the I-4 corridor, and that's what happened. Of course you're going to have a chance of rain in your forecast, dewpoints are in the mid to high 60s, PWATs are near record highs, and there is a screaming jet flowing right into the state. It may just so happened that you didn't get the rain you were expecting, but calling it a botched forecast is incorrect.


On the Florida Weather Blog and on here he forecasted 6-8" of rain for Tampa along with severe weather and tornadoes. We got about 2" and haven't seen any lightning or heard any thunder. Just some nice steady rains.
On a counter note there were 13 record cold temperatures set around the world in 2015. Here in the USA the Northeast and Midwest set many records for coldest temperatures during February and March, with New York and Vermont setting records for the coldest first three months of the year. This record had stood for almost a century.

I would also like to know why Dr. Masters did what he said in his first sentence, "In addition to being the warmest year on record when averaged over the entire globe,...". What was the point of doing that? It proves nothing since weather is a local phenomena.
Storm totals radar estimation
Quoting 246. guygee:

Blame the victims. Gotta love that one. Do the math, extra risks usually do not subtract from existing ones, unless you consider auto fatalities as a form of cancer prevention.


If you're downing boxes of donuts while smoking 6 packs a day, there's no one to blame but yourself when that health bill comes due. If you drink, drive, wreck, and die, that's no one's fault but your own. In those types of circumstances, people aren't the victims. They're the perpetrators.

Regardless, my point is breathless panic over a non-lethal/non-terminal disease that has been linked to an increased risk of birth deformities seems a bit on the irrational side when considered in the grand scheme of things. Should we do something about it? Of course. But fear is not conducive to producing a rational course of action.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL LOW 08U
9:02 PM WST January 28 2016
=============================

At 8:00 PM WST, A Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 16.7S 117.7E or 415 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 455 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The low is gradually strengthening and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone during Friday as it tracks southwards towards the Pilbara coast. It is forecast to reach category 2 intensity when it makes landfall on Saturday morning between Pardoo and Karratha, including near Port Hedland.

GALES may develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Dampier, including Port Hedland and Karratha, during Friday evening or overnight into Saturday morning. If the system tracks further to the east then GALES may develop as far east as Bidyadanga. If the system tracks further west then GALES may extend as far west as Mardie during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h may occur near the centre on Saturday morning and afternoon including in the Port Hedland area.

Tides between Pardoo and Karratha are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and possible flooding of low-lying coastal areas east of the crossing point.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is likely to develop over the Pilbara and far western Kimberley from Friday and extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and a Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment, see www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 18.0S 117.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 19.2S 117.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1) northwest of Port Hedland/northeast of Karratha
48 HRS 22.1S 119.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia
72 HRS 28.0S 124.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia

Additional Information
==============
Deep convection was sustained west and south of the center during the day favored by strong upper divergent flow, reasonable monsoonal low level inflow and warm ocean temperatures in excess of 30C. Development has been gradual offset by moderate NE shear and by being quite broad and monsoonal by nature. Intensity of 25 knot maximum winds based upon Dvorak technique using a curved band pattern of -0.3 wrap in the past few hours indicating a DT of 2.0 consistent with a standard 24h development for the MET=2.0 as well. Otherwise there has been no recent Scat pass or objective guidance available.

The low has moved steadily to the south under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the east and monsoonal flow to the north, ahead of an upstream upper trough. Numerical weather prediction guidance is consistent in persisting the motion towards the Pilbara coast, and there is higher confidence than normal in the track. Landfall is forecast for Saturday morning between Pardoo and Karratha, including Port Hedland.

While gradual development is forecast in the next 24 hours to tropical cyclone intensity there is the risk of more rapid intensification in the 12 hours before landfall as the wind shear decreases. Landfall intensity is forecast to be at the higher end of what model guidance suggests at category 2 [55 knots] but there remains some uncertainty at this range.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the areas of Bidyadanga to Mardie and the adjacent inland parts to Marble Bar and Pannawonica
266. ariot
Quoting 262. Sandy82579:

On a counter note there were 13 record cold temperatures set around the world in 2015. Here in the USA the Northeast and Midwest set many records for coldest temperatures during February and March, with New York and Vermont setting records for the coldest first three months of the year. This record had stood for almost a century.

I would also like to know why Dr. Masters did what he said in his first sentence, "In addition to being the warmest year on record when averaged over the entire globe,...". What was the point of doing that? It proves nothing since weather is a local phenomena.


He said that because the earth's climate is warming due to human climate forcing, and one way to measure that climate forcing is to take measurements over time and compare them.

Quoting 262. Sandy82579:

On a counter note there were 13 record cold temperatures set around the world in 2015. Here in the USA the Northeast and Midwest set many records for coldest temperatures during February and March, with New York and Vermont setting records for the coldest first three months of the year. This record had stood for almost a century.

I would also like to know why Dr. Masters did what he said in his first sentence, "In addition to being the warmest year on record when averaged over the entire globe,...". What was the point of doing that? It proves nothing since weather is a local phenomena.


Good morning to all! And while weather may be a local phenomena, climate, which IS different than weather, is both regional and global. Climate looks at long-term patterns of temperature and precipitation over a long period of time over a large, defined area, and can be applied at a global level as well. As such, Dr. Masters was, as usual, correct in his statement.
Quoting 264. Xyrus2000:

Regardless, my point is breathless panic over a non-lethal/non-terminal disease that has been linked to an increased risk of birth deformities seems a bit on the irrational side when considered in the grand scheme of things. Should we do something about it? Of course. But fear is not conducive to producing a rational course of action.
This morning's lede:

WHO leader: Zika virus 'spreading explosively'

"The Zika virus "is now spreading explosively" around the Americas, the head of the World Health Organization said Thursday, calling the level of alarm over the disease "extremely high."

"The level of concern is high, as is the level of uncertainty," WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan told her organization's executive board members. "We need to get some answers, quickly."


My guess is that, as with 2009's H1N1 outbreak, the reality of the situation lies somewhere between the "breathless panic"of the Alex Joneses of the world, and the nonchalant "it ain't nuthin' but a thing" attitude exhibited by some--and probably closer to the latter.
i have seen mosquitos hanging by the front door just waiting for the door to open. little buggers are tough. could we see a mass exodus of young families moving north or west from the s.e.?
Quoting 247. Grothar:




Hi Gro-
Not too long ago you were in the midst of a drought.
How times change. This summer ought to be something else.
Quoting 264. Xyrus2000:



If you're downing boxes of donuts while smoking 6 packs a day, there's no one to blame but yourself when that health bill comes due. If you drink, drive, wreck, and die, that's no one's fault but your own. In those types of circumstances, people aren't the victims. They're the perpetrators.

Regardless, my point is breathless panic over a non-lethal/non-terminal disease that has been linked to an increased risk of birth deformities seems a bit on the irrational side when considered in the grand scheme of things. Should we do something about it? Of course. But fear is not conducive to producing a rational course of action.
Nice rhetorical hyperbole, but exactly as before, blame the victim. Facts are that with our industrialized agriculture-food distribution system combined with austerity squeeze on the middle and lower classes there isn't nearly as much choice when it comes to diet, unless you're a rich yuppie who can afford to eat organic. Mom and Dad working two part-time minimum wage jobs to keep a roof over their kids heads are under a lot of stress, don't you think? Drinking and smoking are like any other drug addiction, a criminalized disease; helps keep the Police-privatized-prison-"justice" industrial complex growing: good for our modern "service-based" economy, since we really don't manufacture much anymore. As for our automobile society, we made the choice to tear-down public transportation systems a long time ago, urban electric public transportation used to be available in all cities and even small towns like Wheeling, WV, until they were bought up and destroyed by GM and tire companies (e.g. see USSC United States v. National City Lines Inc. decision, also http://www.intransitionmag.org/archive_stories/st reetcar_scandal.aspx ). Yes, smoking is bad for you but so is auto exhaust and the dust from tires, asphalt and brake linings. Enjoy that thought on your next jog down the road, then blame yourself if you get cancer from it.
I hope you are correct about Zika, that it is only a warning and not a threat, but even the CDC doesn't know that yet.
Quoting 262. Sandy82579:

On a counter note there were 13 record cold temperatures set around the world in 2015. Here in the USA the Northeast and Midwest set many records for coldest temperatures during February and March, with New York and Vermont setting records for the coldest first three months of the year. This record had stood for almost a century.

I would also like to know why Dr. Masters did what he said in his first sentence, "In addition to being the warmest year on record when averaged over the entire globe,...". What was the point of doing that? It proves nothing since weather is a local phenomena.


That is incorrect, there were actually 34 all time record low temperatures set last year. In contrast, there were 137 all time record high temperatures set last year.
Weather isn't just local, but we aren't talking about weather, we're talking about climate which is global.

Are you suggesting that because it's cooler in your back yard, it's also cooler in Australia? Climate can absolutely not be recorded by single sites, did you know many climatologists forecast a few areas to actually get cooler with global warming?
Another batch of rain forming offshore.
That flow across Florida will be around for the next 24 hours until it clears out sometime tomorrow:



275. MahFL
Here in Orange Park, FL it does not feel like Florida, it's cold ( 57F ), and it's foggy and raining.
276. ariot
Things like Zika, and other important things, require rational public policy and rational sharing of information that can be complex and nuanced.

This will continue to prove difficult.
858 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016

.NOW...WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
THIS LINE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH, MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AFTER 9 AM. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, FUNNEL CLOUDS, AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THIS
MORNING.

$$
Quoting 260. Xyrus2000:



Who said we shouldn't? It's perfectly reasonable to take preventative measures. It's perfectly reasonable to develop treatments and vaccines and tests.

But is the disease bringing on the zombie apocalypse? Is it a world ending catastrophe? Is it going to wipe out humanity overnight? Not remotely. But the media/social panic would have one thinking otherwise, and that's dangerous. Why? Because people vote and the more fear people have the less rational their decisions are.

For example, Zika is a tropical virus moving up towards the US. You have candidate A who says we should increase medical and biological research to find better cures and treatments for diseases. You have candidate B saying they're going to build a wall along Mexico and prevent any immigration to "stop Zika". Who get's the vote? After a couple of TV ads showing deformed infants being linked to "dirty evil Mexicans", candidate B will likely win by a landslide.

Remember how effective the "Wolf" ad was for Ronald Reagan?


You forgot to add that candidate B will get the skeeters to pay for Zika research.
Quoting 274. weathermanwannabe:

That flow across Florida will be around for the next 24 hours until it clears out sometime tomorrow:






The front is actually supposed to push through this evening. So, it's more like 12 more hours, not 24.
Watching the storm that should effect the west coast this weekend..

Southern CA still gets rain..


Still looks possibly severe as it gets into the Southeast.


Showing more snow than before on the backside as it exits over the Northeast.
Quoting 278. georgevandenberghe:



You forgot to add that candidate B will get the skeeters to pay for Zika research.
How is the Zika virus related to El Nino? Can anyone tell me? Where is StormTrackerScott when we need him?
Quoting 249. Wacahootaman:



Got a bad case of malaria in 85 during some "adventure travel" into denied areas of Burma. I was taking my preventative drugs, fansidar and chlorquinine like I should have but it was a strain resistant to those drugs because the area where I traveled was involved in an long going guerrilla war between the hill tribes and the govt in Rangoon and never had any organized malaria control efforts. The vivax malaria was like a bad case of the flu, headaches, body aches, with high fevers at night and low fevers in the day. The falcaprium malaria was much worse with the fever building and building while the bugs killed your red blood cells until the dead blood cells would clog the capillaries in your brain resulting in a coma and death. Needles to say, I was saved by intense hospitalization before it got to that point.

But there were complications like a damaged spleen, chronic fatigue, and loss of memory. I have recovered from it all except the memory loss which has gotten worse, probably complicated by "Old Timers Disease" and my smoking some "wacky tobaccy" when I was young and dumb.

Hello Hoot...The same year you were in Burma, I contracted Rheumatic Fever. Dont know where I got because I was working all over, but It almost killed me. I actually had resigned, like I knew I was going to die. A very quick acting and very smart Dr. saved my life...By the way, pot has many curing qualities, and is showing that it may be a cure for M.S...Pot gets a bad rap..It is saving lives in children having seizures too..:)
Looks like false alarm from Computer Hurricane Guidance:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1226 UTC THU JAN 28 2016

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP902016) 20160106 1800 UTC


Timestamps do not agree.
Quoting 281. Llamaluvr:

How is the Zika virus related to El Nino? Can anyone tell me? Where is StormTrackerScott when we need him?


Mosquito larvae are born from water (where mosquitoes nest), and above-average rainfall is a hallmark of El-Nino in Latin America.
Quoting 284. win1gamegiantsplease:



Mosquito larvae are born from water (where mosquitoes nest), and above-average rainfall is a hallmark of El-Nino in Latin America.
Thank you!
286. MahFL
Quoting 281. Llamaluvr:

How is the Zika virus related to El Nino? Can anyone tell me? Where is StormTrackerScott when we need him?


Warmer temps and a damper climate are better for the mosquito population to increase.
Quoting 281. Llamaluvr:

How is the Zika virus related to El Nino? Can anyone tell me? Where is StormTrackerScott when we need him?
Winter temps restrict the range of viruses and certain bacteria that causes sickness and fever. El Nino brings mild temps and widens the range of susceptibility to many. As the world warms, the zones of cool temperatures keeping certain mosquitoes in check will move north.
Quoting 270. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-
Not too long ago you were in the midst of a drought.
How times change. This summer ought to be something else.



We've gotten more rain this winter than last summer. I'm afraid of the mosquitoes :)
if you get bit by a mosquito with white spots should i be worried? rainy day in e cen fl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EST

* AT 1034 AM EST...A SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER VILLAGE OF GOLF...OR OVER DELRAY BEACH... MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OCEAN RIDGE AROUND 1045 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC STORM INCLUDE GULF
STREAM...MANALAPAN...BRINY BREEZES AND HYPOLUXO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

Tornado in United States of America on January 28 2016 :
" Two people were reported injured and many vehicles were tossed about as a twister touched down in Coconut Creek, Florida. Heavy storms on Wednesday morning soaked the area, just a few miles inland from Florida's Atlantic coast, between Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale. At Broward College, the twister picked up cars, tossing them around. Several vehicles ended up stacked on top of others. "

_____________
New research that's good news for the panspermia theory (life could be seeded, "naturally" or not, across interplanetary distances) :

(Link / ) Antarctic fungi survive Martian conditions (simulated on the International Space Station) and don't fare too bad in outer space too (!).

It seems some of the 'shrooms will survive (almost) any type of climate change. :-)
This is quite similar to tardigrades, as you can see on Tardigrades in Space (TARDIS) blog (Link) :

" At last, the first results from the TARDIS experiment have been published! Space tardigrades stood the test!
YES, indeed many of the tardigrades survived the trip in space, and a few of them became the first animals to return alive after exposure to both space vacuum and solar radiation.
To recall our report in Current Biology, the space vacuum and cosmic radiation did not affect their survival or reproduction at all. This was true for both Richtersius coronifer and Milnesium tardigradum. What this means is that these animals can either protect their cells from expected damage of the extremely dehydration impact of space vacuum, or that they can repair damage that arise in some way. At the moment, we don't know which is true.
- Some of the samples were exposed to solar light (UV-radiation) in addition to space vacuum and cosmic radiation, and we used two different optical filters to discriminate between the combined effect of UV-A and UV-B (280-400 nm), on one hand, and effects of the full spectrum of UV, including also UV-C and Vacuum-UV (116-400 nm). Obviously, UV-radiation is difficult to handle also for tardigrades, since few animals survived these exposures.
- But one of the species, Milnesium tardigradum, did better than the other, and about 12 % of those exposed to UV-A and UV-B managed to recover, although their egg production was lower than in the control animals that stayed on Earth. Also a few specimens exposed to the full UV range woke up and tried to get their bodies in shape again, but failed and died a few days later. "
Too bad for those cute animals.
Quoting 266. ariot:



He said that because the earth's climate is warming due to human climate forcing, and one way to measure that climate forcing is to take measurements over time and compare them.


How long do you need to measure the temps to see if the Earth is warming or cooling? And what effects will this Nino and future Nino's due to world temps?
Scientists in Brazil think that the Zika virus might be transmitted by the 'common mosquito' (Culex), as well as Aedes aegypti. This might explain the explosive rise in cases. They say they're about a month away from proving it. Bit of a game changer, if they're right.

Link
Quoting 287. hydrus:

Winter temps restrict the range of viruses and certain bacteria that causes sickness and fever. El Nino brings mild temps and widens the range of susceptibility to many. As the world warms, the zones of cool temperatures keeping certain mosquitoes in check will move north.



The primary mosquito vector is the same one that carried Yellow Fever. This mosquito can establish seasonally even in northern locations that have hot summers but is killed by freezes and has to recolonize every summer. The epidemiology of Yellow Fever prior to vaccines may provide a clue to how Zika will progress.
Dry season weather... dry, weak clouds, little rain, breezy



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1048 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016

FLC099-281558-
/O.CAN.KMFL.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160128T1600Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
1048 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND
INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2656 8005 2653 8005 2656 8004 2644 8006
2642 8006 2642 8007 2648 8014 2656 8006
2657 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 218DEG 30KT 2656 8001

$$
Stormy weather / flood in UK :
" More than 800 people were evacuated in the south of Scotland yesterday as stormy weather heightened the risk of flooding in the region. It was yet another blow to parts of the country which have been battered by gales and heavy rain over the past weeks. And last night forecasters warned things could get even worse. The Met Office predicted ice could cause problems overnight and into this morning while predicting the adverse conditions were expected to continue into the weekend. A yellow "be aware" warning - covering the entire country tomorrow - has been issued for snow, ice, wind and rain. A further 50 properties were evacuated in nearby Jedburgh amid fears that flooding could equal that seen during Storm Desmond at the beginning of December. "

Wind will pick up there in approximately 30 hours from now. Another gale episode is forecast on the 1st February (GFS Euro), as another low approaches from the Atl. in approximately 100 hours. Watch the waves.
"Airmass" enhancement, EUMETSAT. Link for other sat. products.
- See also comment .239-Barbamz
Quoting 262. Sandy82579:

On a counter note there were 13 record cold temperatures set around the world in 2015. Here in the USA the Northeast and Midwest set many records for coldest temperatures during February and March, with New York and Vermont setting records for the coldest first three months of the year. This record had stood for almost a century.

I would also like to know why Dr. Masters did what he said in his first sentence, "In addition to being the warmest year on record when averaged over the entire globe,...". What was the point of doing that? It proves nothing since weather is a local phenomena.


This is a common tactic for denial of climate change. The relativist claim that the local data means more than the global average. All data is local, but those local nodes of data are able to be scaled to obtain a global view. This isn't relativst, but relationist. We have managed to take those local nodes and combine them to create a global view and this view is important as it allows us to understand the energy budget of a larger scale system that we simply lack the ability to measure directly. There are no global thermometers, but there are a lot of local ones we can apply mathematical principles to that allow us a larger scale. This scale, when taken in context with radiative forcings paints a clear picture of what is happening to Earth. It is like a tapestry, small points strung together to create an larger image. This is not an uncommon method for creating use able data to measure things we normally cannot.
Quoting 205. sar2401:

Great minds think alike. What have you been up to? I haven't seen you much around the swamp lately. Of course, I've been banned so much lately I just might have missed you. :-)


No, you haven't missed me. I've been busy with school and teaching. I stop by to read on occasion, but don't have much time to actively post too often. Maybe after the start of this semester calms down I can swing back around for more frequent visits. :)
I think the final push of moisture is getting ready to move into central and then southern Fl.
Quoting 260. Xyrus2000:



You have candidate B saying they're going to build a wall along Mexico and prevent any immigration to "stop Zika".


A border wall that stops immigrant mosquitos? I'd pay money to see that. :)
Growing severe threat..Looks like a springtime system in many ways..


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY AFTER DIGGING INLAND
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE ECENS AND NCEP MREF CONCERNING THIS
PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE 500 MB MEAN HEIGHT FIELD FORECASTS GENERATED
BY THE TWO MODELS BECOME FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE IMPULSE TURNS EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SPREAD THEN INCREASES ONCE AGAIN
THEREAFTER...AS IT ACCELERATES ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE ALONG AN ARCING PATH...FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY LATE WEEK. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...A 100 KT JET
STREAK AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...COINCIDING
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT 850 MB.
GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME APPEAR IN A SWATH ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE A SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION.

SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES MAY BEGIN RAMPING UP LATE MONDAY EVENING
NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...BEFORE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SQUALL LINE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 01/28/2016
Global warming is/will cause species migration (or extinction in some cases) based on temperature changes for their optimal range so we will see lots of plants/animals/inspects/ocean species changing overall habitats (on the move from some current areas) in the coming decades in search of their comfort/survival zone. It just comes with the territory related to climate change...............Posted an article a few months ago on certain varieties of wine grapes (both in California and France) that will migrate further north in the coming years due to climate change (bust for some Cali varieties and boom for new planters in Washington State)............No different for mosquitoes as they thrive and move into the coming sweet spots.
Quoting 303. tlawson48:



A border wall that stops immigrant mosquitos? I'd pay money to see that. :)
But you won't have to pay money to see it; the mosquitoes themselves will foot the bill. or so we're told.
Local meteorologist mentioned thunderstorms forming in the Gulf of Mexico just outside of radar range off of S.W. Florida. Could be some severe weather later this afternoon.
308. MahFL
Quoting 262. Sandy82579:

I would also like to know why Dr. Masters did what he said in his first sentence, "In addition to being the warmest year on record when averaged over the entire globe,...". What was the point of doing that? It proves nothing since weather is a local phenomena.


It means even taking into account places that are cooler than normal, overall the average is higher than it has ever been. I other words Planet Earth's atmospheric temperature is rising.
...And it's rising rather fast.

GISTEMP (from GISS, Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis, 1985-2015. Earth Institute, Colombia University, "Global Temperature in 2015", here is the January 19 blog entry with the same title : Link.
(snipped)..from storm prediction center for next week..........................................SEVE RE STORM PROBABILITIES MAY BEGIN RAMPING UP LATE MONDAY EVENING
NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...BEFORE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SQUALL LINE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 01/28/2016
312. ariot
Quoting 294. NativeSun:

How long due you need to measure the temps to see if the Earth is warming or cooling? And what effects will this Nino and future Nino's due to world temps?


I don't know. I don't do the measuring. Here's a good place to start. And there are many many more.



spraying deet on twenty four hrs a day is not an option. a mosquito net for the bed might be a good idea. here in e cen florida they like to stick to the clothing until they are in the house then they fly off to there new hideout. feast later.
Quoting 1. Patrap:

2016, the Year the Human induced Climate Change Forcing's begin to deliver the pain.



Pretty intense wind fields...

















Jeesum, a link wouldnt do, eh?
Quoting 316. Patrap:

Jeesum, a link wouldnt do, eh?


I'm sorry for the long post.
Quoting 300. Naga5000:



This is a common tactic for denial of climate change. The relativist claim that the local data means more than the global average. All data is local, but those local nodes of data are able to be scaled to obtain a global view. This isn't relativst, but relationist. We have managed to take those local nodes and combine them to create a global view and this view is important as it allows us to understand the energy budget of a larger scale system that we simply lack the ability to measure directly. There are no global thermometers, but there are a lot of local ones we can apply mathematical principles to that allow us a larger scale. This scale, when taken in context with radiative forcings paints a clear picture of what is happening to Earth. It is like a tapestry, small points strung together to create an larger image. This is not an uncommon method for creating use able data to measure things we normally cannot.


JB does that all the time. His home town can set a record low temp and he'll use that as a denial to climate change. Unfortunately he has a lot of people who think he's right.
When I was a kid in the late 1960's-1970's, we were often fishing in the Florida Keys out of Key Largo on weekends and there was an old low flying DC-3 that would zoom overhead in the afternoons spraying tons of mosquito spray over everybody/everything................I though it was so cool and we would just cover our noses or jump in the car if at the boat ramp until the spray settled. Don't know if they still do that or if it is even legal now over a populated area..... :)
Quoting 310. tampabaymatt:




Raining hard here in Altamonte now over 3" for a 2 day total so far and HRRR model says we should see another 1" to 1.5" right up the I-4 corridor thru this evening. Orlando mets mentioned at noon that this upper trough in the western Gulf is moving slower and stronger than anticipated so heavy thunderstorms could be in the offing for C & S FL later this afternoon as the upper energy is still in the C Gulf.

Really coming down now guys up I-4 if you don't have to drive in this mess please don't because there is also some ponding on some of the roads from the 2.0" to 2.5" in Orlando yesterday.

Quoting 319. weathermanwannabe:

When I was a kid in the late 1960's-1970's, we were often fishing in the Florida Keys out of Key Largo on weekends and there was an old low flying DC-3 that would zoom overhead in the afternoons spraying tons of mosquito spray over everybody/everything................I though it was so cool and we would just cover our noses or jump in the car if at the boat ramp until the spray settled. Don't know if they still do that or if it is even legal now over a populated area..... :)

I hope it's illegal in the US to spray powerful insecticides over populated areas now. At the time it was a "scientific revolution" in disease/mosquito control, but it's possible some of the very molecules you've seen them spray have been banned since. I've heard the same problem is still happening with banana farms too close to poor communities : accidents happen in Central America / Caribbean / South America sometimes with winds carrying the stuff sprayed from small airplanes used to kill certain fungal "disease", or other chemicals over houses nearby. Consequences look not pretty in these cases.
30 year's ago this day, we saw 7 Americans leave Earth to reach for the Stars.
We remember the crew of Challenger.
We Honor their Lives and commitment to a greater calling.

Aerial skeeter spraying is as common as a UPS delivery.

Quoting 317. 62901IL:



I'm sorry for the long post.


Don't apologize, at least your post had something to do with weather.
Quoting 318. Bucsboltsfan:



JB does that all the time. His home town can set a record low temp and he'll use that as a denial to climate change. Unfortunately he has a lot of people who think he's right.


It would be like a financial reporter saying "The S&P 500 was down 20% last year, but here are 3 stocks that went up, so don't worry".
Quoting 318. Bucsboltsfan:



JB does that all the time. His home town can set a record low temp and he'll use that as a denial to climate change. Unfortunately he has a lot of people who think he's right.


It's very commonplace and often tied into the mediated data versus unmediated data argument (global versus local). Thankfully, not only can we do other simple comparisons of local data that give the same intuitive results that the planet is warming (record highs versus lows), but there are subdisciplines of Sociology and Statistics that look to answer, (and have answered) the very questions raised here of how we treat and use data.
It seems that 90C has spun onto the scene in the central Pacific.

https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_ss t_mm.gif

Quasi-stationary fronts, and the exact timing of the drift, is always a bit of a forecasting challenge; just noting that the early am WPC Conus forcast had the flash flooding potential for extreme south Florida, but the front is moving very slowly with the bulk of the rain over Central Florida for the past several hours:








Some big time rains in an area that was in a drought.
((Updated))
from : JTWC, issued at 1800Z, 01/28/16 :
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN (281800Z-291800Z JAN2016)

B. (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 117.1E, APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY IMPROVING SPIRAL BANDING WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION FORMING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 280856Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 28 TO 32 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.


Link 1 and Link 2 for additional up-to-date sat. imagery (Australia, Himaw.8 sat.)
Strong thunderstorms probably ongoing there over land.
The doppler is a better indicator at the moment over the overhead satt shots; big swatch of rain over most of Florida at the moment:
Southeast sector loop
Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
353 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016

...HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, COMBINING WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLZ063-066-069-070-281700-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.160128T0853Z-160129T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GLADES-HENDRY-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
353 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY AND INLAND
COLLIER.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* MANY AREAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GULF OF MEXICO LOW
PRESSURE AND AN AFTERNOON COLD FRONT, MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY.


* THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS...URBAN AREAS...AND LOW LYING
FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR SMALL CANALS OR CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&
Here is the current updated drought monitor issued this morning; does not seem that Florida needs more rain at the moment and Central California still needs more in spite of the recent rains in parts of extreme Southern California):
Current U.S. Drought Monitor

Quoting 318. Bucsboltsfan:



JB does that all the time. His home town can set a record low temp and he'll use that as a denial to climate change. Unfortunately he has a lot of people who think he's right.
Wrong.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 1035 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 319 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 201 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 125 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
Severe Weather Page The Nexlab Text Page
Just back from a few days in the Pac NW... drizzly cool gray days. Was looking forward to getting back to some Florida sunshine.. and well we are having having our own drizzly cool gray days just a 1000 miles south :/
Lots of these records seem Oceanic or Maritime climate. Perhaps a reflection of warming ocean temperatures.
It will be interesting to see how much this next push of moisture will add.

Fort Myers
January Precip Stats: Actual Month to Date: 12.36 in | Average Month to Date: 1.91 in | Average Month Total: 1.94 in
The warming, more Water Vapor laden atmosphere is showing up everywhere globally with Higher than normal and double the historical avg pwat's for any given area.

That 1 degree of global warming, adds 7-8 % more Water Vapor,globally.



It's hard to believe another round of rain forming further offshore. That will be about the forth or fifth batch of rain in the past two days.
Quoting 335. NativeSun:

Wrong.


Sorry but it's true. He uses small scale local climates as a denialistic tactic.
Quoting 249. Wacahootaman:



Got a bad case of malaria in 85 during some "adventure travel" into denied areas of Burma. I was taking my preventative drugs, fansidar and chlorquinine like I should have but it was a strain resistant to those drugs because the area where I traveled was involved in an long going guerrilla war between the hill tribes and the govt in Rangoon and never had any organized malaria control efforts. The vivax malaria was like a bad case of the flu, headaches, body aches, with high fevers at night and low fevers in the day. The falcaprium malaria was much worse with the fever building and building while the bugs killed your red blood cells until the dead blood cells would clog the capillaries in your brain resulting in a coma and death. Needles to say, I was saved by intense hospitalization before it got to that point.

But there were complications like a damaged spleen, chronic fatigue, and loss of memory. I have recovered from it all except the memory loss which has gotten worse, probably complicated by "Old Timers Disease" and my smoking some "wacky tobaccy" when I was young and dumb.

Holy mackerel! I've visited a few semi dangerous places in my life, but the Burmese mountains were never on my list. I'm glad you found the right doctor in time. Malaria symptoms mimic so many other diseases that it's almost always misdiagnosed unless you get to a good tropical doctor. My dad suffered from many of your problems from his malaria. He did make it to 83 before it likely contributed to his death. He was lucky to find a VA doc in 1948 who actually knew what he was doing in terms of treating malaria. Everyone else said he had a bad cold...that lasted for four years. I don't know about that "wacky tobaccy" making it worse, but there was much more potent pot and hash available when I was around it in the late '60s in California than I had ever seen before. A person I know was proudly displaying his "score" a couple of months ago, telling me what good stuff it was. All I know is that it looked like what we used to call "seeds and stems" back then. :-)
Quoting 325. science101:



It would be like a financial reporter saying "The S&P 500 was down 20% last year, but here are 3 stocks that went up, so don't worry".


Unless you were the lucky person who's entire portfolio was in those 3 stocks💲💲💲💲
very unusual afternoon 2pm and its foggy. light drizzle 63f. e cen florida.
Quoting 341. Sfloridacat5:

It's hard to believe another round of rain forming further offshore. That will be about the forth or fifth batch of rain in the past two days.

The flow of moisture along the subtropical jet has been pretty persistent. My forecast today is for decreasing clouds. Instead, I got 0.09" of rain an hour ago, and none of those clouds look like they are decreasing. Even though the front went through yesterday, it's now stationary near Tampa. That's providing enough lift to the remaining moisture to wring out yet more rain. It's also only 49 degrees here. I don't think I'm going to make it to the forecast high of 58 today. The clouds actually are thinning out upstream though, and it looks like the sun will return tomorrow. It should be a really nice weekend here.
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:



Raining hard here in Altamonte now over 3" for a 2 day total so far and HRRR model says we should see another 1" to 1.5" right up the I-4 corridor thru this evening. Orlando mets mentioned at noon that this upper trough in the western Gulf is moving slower and stronger than anticipated so heavy thunderstorms could be in the offing for C & S FL later this afternoon as the upper energy is still in the C Gulf.

Really coming down now guys up I-4 if you don't have to drive in this mess please don't because there is also some ponding on some of the roads from the 2.0" to 2.5" in Orlando yesterday.




I don't know how the heavy stuff jumps us and hits you. We've had a really nice steady rain all day but certainly nothing that would warrant a really coming down status.
Quoting 335. NativeSun:

Wrong.
AFLAC!!
MOST POPULOUS METRO ON MEDITERRANEAN SEA - NEW RECORD DRIEST YEAR: 2015 is the record driest calendar year in Barcelona, Spain. Barcelona's record for most consecutive days each without 1 mm / 0.04" of rainfall has been broken, with 85 such days as of January 28, 2016. Barcelona is the most populous metropolis on the Mediterranean Sea and the 6th most populous metropolis in Europe.

Link
Quoting 347. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't know how the heavy stuff jumps us and hits you. We've had a really nice steady rain all day but certainly nothing that would warrant a really coming down status.


I'm at 0.42" so far today, and like you said, none of it has been heavy. Light, to moderate at most, rain for the past 2 hours or so. It will be nice when all of this mess passes us and the sun comes back out. This weekend should be beautiful.

it looks like some pockets of Pinellas and Manatee have had some heavier cells come through.
HRRR brings some heavy rain into the Tampa area this evening.
Quoting 350. tampabaymatt:



I’m at 0.22” so far today, and like you said, none of it has been heavy. Light, to moderate at most, rain for the past 2 hours or so. It will be nice when all of this mess passes us and the sun comes back out. This weekend should be beautiful.

it looks like some pockets of Pinellas and Manatee have had some heavier cells come through.


Just started raining heavily here in Fort Myers after a few hours of basically sprinkles. I've had about .3" from earlier today. I'm waiting to see where the rain train sets up this afternoon into this evening.
Quoting 347. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't know how the heavy stuff jumps us and hits you. We've had a really nice steady rain all day but certainly nothing that would warrant a really coming down status.
I'm looking at Sanford now, and they are reporting overcast with a six hour total of 0.09". Orlando International is also reporting overcast with a six hour rainfall of 0.12". Looks like the two day total was about 2.50", most of that yesterday. Unless your area has really terrible road drainage problems, I would think ponding shouldn't be a big issue now.
The flow from the E-Pac is still chugging along; at this rate, Cuba and the Bahamas might be next in line after Florida in terms of rain is the slow and steady eastern push keeps up (and the position of the jet cooperates).  Also looks to me like Bermuda is under some of that rain off the US coast:





Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:

HRRR brings some heavy rain into the Tampa area this evening.

It also brings rain back over me. That's going to be news to the Boys in Birmingham if that happens. :-)
There s one question I would like to ask. Do you think there will be new viruses and diseases in a warmer and more populated world?
Good evening. If some of you are still longing for snow, go to Turkey, especially Bitlis (eastern central Turkey). Youtube caption says that snow is at 2 meters (6.5feet) now, uff. Meanwhile most of the snow in more western European mountains is melting or already gone (safe the highest regions in parts of the Alps).

Quoting 344. Bucsboltsfan:



Unless you were the lucky person who's entire portfolio was in those 3 stocks💲💲💲💲
Yes, and that person would not be me. If we could get financial forecasts anywhere near as good as weather forests I might actually be able to make some money.
Quoting 354. weathermanwannabe:

Also looks to me like Bermuda is under some of that rain off the US coast:

Actually, yes it is:
Link
Quoting 356. NoobDave:

There s one question I would like to ask. Do you think there will be new viruses and diseases in a warmer and more populated world?



Note sure but this recent study is an interesting one (not just mosquitoes we have to worry about):

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/new-mexico s-american-indian-population-crashed-100-years-aft er-europeans-arrived


In the 1500s, the ponderosa pine forests of Jemez province in New Mexico were home to between 5000 and 8000 people. But after Europeans arrived in the area, the native population plummeted by more than 80%, probably because of a series of devastating epidemics. A new study suggests the crash took place 100 years after the first contact with Europeans. It also suggests that the sudden drop in the local population had dramatic ecological effects, including an increase in forest fires.

The authors of the paper used a "terrific combination" of dendro-ecology—which uses the rings of trees to determine their ages and reconstruct past environments—fire ecology, and LiDAR, a remote sensing technique based on laser light, says Steve Lekson, a Southwestern archaeologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder, who wasn't involved in the study. “It’s such an amazing approach,” agrees Richard Nevle, an environmental scientist at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California, who has studied the ecological effects of the American Indian population crash. “No one has really pulled all these different pieces together so well before. It raises the bar.”

American Indian populations plummeted after the arrival of Europeans in the New World, largely because of the spread of smallpox, typhus, measles, and other infectious diseases. But archaeologists and historians have debated the exact timing and severity of the decline. Did diseases race out ahead of colonial settlement, decimating communities that hadn’t even met Europeans? Or did it take more sustained contact between the two populations to spark epidemics?

Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:

HRRR brings some heavy rain into the Tampa area this evening.



I’ll be very surprised if that verifies. The heavier cells approaching the Tampa Bay area from the Gulf are not holding together well, and the atmosphere is pretty worked over and stabilized. The HRRR shows the rain ending around 9:00 tonight. By the way, I’m actually at 0.47” for today. I meant to write 0.42” below, and not 0.22”. Since then, I’ve picked up another 0.05”. I’m probably on pace for about an inch today after 1.46” yesterday.
Quoting 357. barbamz:

Good evening. If some of you are still longing for snow, go to Turkey, especially Bitlis (eastern central Turkey). Youtube caption says that snow is at 2 meters (6.5feet) now, uff. Meanwhile most of the snow in more western European mountains is melting or already gone (safe the highest regions in parts of the Alps).


Hi, Barb. As it says at Wiki, "The climate of Bitlis can be harsh, with long winters and heavy snowfalls. Summers are hot, and often humid.". Looks like Bitlis gets crossed off my places I'd like to visit list. :-) The mountains of eastern Turkey can be a difficult place, especially to fight a war. The Russians and Turks found that out when there was a two year long back and forth struggle to capture Bitlis in WWI. If the Russian army thought the winter weather in Bitlis is bad, it must be really bad.
Quoting 361. tampabaymatt:



I’ll be very surprised if that verifies. The heavier cells approaching the Tampa Bay area from the Gulf are not holding together well, and the atmosphere is pretty worked over and stabilized. The HRRR shows the rain ending around 9:00 tonight. By the way, I’m actually at 0.47” for today. I meant to write 0.42” below, and not 0.22”. Since then, I’ve picked up another 0.05”. I’m probably on pace for about an inch today after 1.46” yesterday.


It could be a little overdone, especially the intensity. Not much heating going on with constant light rain and cloud cover all day. But the HRRR did really well over the past couple days. But its still a model and it's far from perfect.

We are completely saturated here. All the road side ditches, lakes, and ponds are at the over-flow point. Even areas that only fill up when it's been very rainy during the wet season are full of water.

Hopefully we'll just get some light to moderate rain this evening and be done with it for a while.
Quoting 218. Jedkins01:



No I didn't get one, however I don't think it was Malaria because while it was bad, it lasted about 3 days, which is a lot less than Malaria, and there are some certain other nitty gritty details about Malaria that made it differ some from what I had.
Also I have gotten blood tested at least a couple times before for a bacterial infection I got under my toe nail from flood water a few years back. Given I have been blood tested, I would think anything odd would have showed up.

Also yeah, it was odd that they only asked me about my symptoms rather than do tests, maybe because I was in high school, I wasn't honest enough with them just how bad it was. I just remember they didn't give me a blood test, just a basic medical check up test and some questioning, then discussed the apparent results of my symptoms, they say they weren't sure, but that I appeared to be showing signs of recovery by the time I went in. So maybe that's why they didn't do a more comprehensive checkup.


Jed,
they culture a bacterial infection and do not look at the blood if the differential count is not ordered. You may need to get a CBC/differential the next time you get a fever and tell the doc to have the lab check for the protozoan that causes malaria because you may have had exposure due to that trip and illness. Sar is "right on" this one. Better safe than sorry and it won't cost you much.
Quoting 344. Bucsboltsfan:



Unless you were the lucky person who's entire portfolio was in those 3 stocks💲💲💲💲


Then you would likely be investigated by the SEC for insider trading....
Quoting 356. NoobDave:

There s one question I would like to ask. Do you think there will be new viruses and diseases in a warmer and more populated world?

There won't be new diseases, as in completely new diseases previously unknown. There's no reason to think some type of new virus or bacteria will emerge just because the Northern Hemisphere gets warmer. What is likely to happen is diseases formerly endemic only in the tropics will start spreading to places that didn't have them before. However, some of these tropical diseases, like yellow fever, smallpox, and malaria, were endemic to Alabama in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. They have been mostly wiped out by the use of vector control or vaccination. As the world gets more crowded and warmer, it's things like typhus that will begin to be a much bigger problem that purely tropical diseases.
Quoting 344. Bucsboltsfan:



Unless you were the lucky person who's entire portfolio was in those 3 stocks💲💲💲💲
Quoting 356. NoobDave:

There s one question I would like to ask. Do you think there will be new viruses and diseases in a warmer and more populated world?



I don't think warming, per se, will produce new viruses, but for those like Zika (which isn't new) that have an insect vector it will increase their range. Population will and already has led to emerging diseases, because more people means more roads built into isolated forests. HIV is the most important case-it was likely endemic in isolated areas long before it emerged on the world scene. Similarly the recent Ebola outbreak was more worrisome than previous ones, because it was carried into large cities, whereas previous ones had remained in small rural pockets.
Gusts tomorrow morning, 11 a.m. local time, with 180 km/h = 112 mph in northern Scotland by "Gertrude". Nice!
Link
Very heavy rains moving into the I-4 region. Rush hour is going to be a complete mess!

Quoting 365. science101:



Then you would likely be investigated by the SEC for insider trading....


What about all the guys that go "short" and place very large sums of money on the market taking a dive. They some how always know what's going to happen at the opening bell everyday.
So much insider information out there it's unreal.
Most of Orlando is going to get around 1" with this heavy band with much more coming in from the Gulf.
Hey Barbantz........Has any of this jet driven rain gotten to you yet in Europe all the way from the E-Pac with this elongated Pacific jet?.................... :)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 363. Sfloridacat5:



It could be a little overdone, especially the intensity. Not much heating going on with constant light rain and cloud cover all day. But the HRRR did really well over the past couple days. But its still a model and it's far from perfect.

We are completely saturated here. All the road side ditches, lakes, and ponds are at the over-flow point. Even areas that only fill up when it's been very rainy during the wet season are full of water.

Hopefully we'll just get some light to moderate rain this evening and be done with it for a while.


You mean under done. It is absolutely pouring here in Wekiva. Very heavy rains with this band. Geesh!
Quoting 362. sar2401:

Hi, Barb. As it says at Wiki, "The climate of Bitlis can be harsh, with long winters and heavy snowfalls. Summers are hot, and often humid.". Looks like Bitlis gets crossed off my places I'd like to visit list. :-) The mountains of eastern Turkey can be a difficult place, especially to fight a war. The Russians and Turks found that out when there was a two year long back and forth struggle to capture Bitlis in WWI. If the Russian army thought the winter weather in Bitlis is bad, it must be really bad.

I have travelled the region in 1990 during a peace spell, f.e. nearby region of Van Lake. And of course not in winter. It's an extremely fascinating landscape, with a lot of ancient Christian (Armenian) churches and monasteries, btw. I'm so sorry for the folks down there that peace could not be maintained.
Quote "tell the doc to have the lab check for the protozoan that causes malaria."

It will only show up in the blood when you have a high fever when the protozoa is attacking your red blood cells. Otherwise it is hidden in your liver.

When I had malaria I didnt think I had it at first because the hospital tests in Thailand turned up negative. Plus I was taking the preventative drugs by the book so how could I have malaria? Unfortunately, I contacted a resistant strain in Burma that was overwhelming the drugs that were supposed to protect me. I thought I had a FUO, a fever of undetermined origin, and that was really scaring me. When I finally got a positive blood test for malaria it was a relief to finally know what I had. Lucky for me when I returned stateside a doc who had majored in tropical medicine pegged it and saved my life.
Quoting 364. Pipejazz:


Jed,
they culture a bacterial infection and do not look at the blood if the differential count is not ordered. You may need to get a CBC/differential the next time you get a fever and tell the doc to have the lab check for the protozoan that causes malaria because you may have had exposure due to that trip and illness. Sar is "right on" this one. Better safe than sorry and it won't cost you much.
Unfortunately, people who are sick and who have visited the tropics often won't get proper treatment unless they really demand it from their doctor, and their doctor has at least some training in tropical medicine. My former SIL was with us on a dive trip to Fiji. She didn't take her chloroquine regularly while we there, and stopped taking it altogether when she got home. Two weeks later, she was sick and, I mean, really sick. Her doctor took a blood sample, and it showed an elevated white count. He said she had the flu. On top of this, her husband was a doctor! A nitwit, but still, he was a doctor. By the time I finally convinced her to go to the one guy in Cincinnati who was a tropical disease specialist, she was much sicker. He confirmed with a differential she had malaria. She spent two weeks in the hospital hooked up to IV's, and nearly died from the dehydration alone. Malaria often doesn't become symptomatic for two or three weeks after exposure, so people will often think they are sick from something else. A rule out blood test, as you say, doesn't cost much, and it may save you from a lifelong chronic disease.
Quoting 377. Wacahootaman:

Quote "tell the doc to have the lab check for the protozoan that causes malaria."

It will only show up in the blood when you have a high fever when the protozoa is attacking your red blood cells. Otherwise it is hidden in your liver.

When I had malaria I didnt think I had it at first because the hospital tests in Thailand turned up negative. Plus I was taking the preventative drugs by the book so how could I have malaria? Unfortunately, I contacted a resistant strain in Burma that was overwhelming the drugs that were supposed to protect me. I thought I had a FUO, a fever of undetermined origin, and that was really scaring me. When I finally got a positive blood test for malaria it was a relief to finally know what I had. Lucky for me when I returned stateside a doc who had majored in tropical medicine pegged it and saved my life.
Good point. As Pipejazz also said, you need to have the blood test done when you have a fever, even if you think the fever might be caused from something else. The malaria bug only shows itself when it's out in the bloodstream, and a fever can indicate that's happening. You had the misfortune of going to a part of the world that has some of the most resistant strains of malaria in the world. Even though you did everything right, you still got sick. Jed, being in Guatemala, was likely to have been exposed to a strain that's more likely to be killed off with treatment. One of my trips to Honduras was a medical mission. I treated kids in rural areas that had current acute episodes of malaria. They were very sick, and all we could do was to load them up on antibiotics, treat them for fluid loss, and hope for the best. It wasn't likely any of them would get hospital treatment. It was enough to make sure I always took those pills every night, even when I didn't feel like doing so.
Quoting 378. sar2401:

Unfortunately, people who are sick and who have visited the tropics often won't get proper treatment unless they really demand it from their doctor, and their doctor has at least some training in tropical medicine. My former SIL was with us on a dive trip to Fiji. She didn't take her chloroquine regularly while we there, and stopped taking it altogether when she got home. Two weeks later, she was sick and, I mean, really sick. Her doctor took a blood sample, and it showed an elevated white count. He said she had the flu. On top of this, her husband was a doctor! A nitwit, but still, he was a doctor. By the time I finally convinced her to go to the one guy in Cincinnati who was a tropical disease specialist, she was much sicker. He confirmed with a differential she had malaria. She spent two weeks in the hospital hooked up to IV's, and nearly died from the dehydration alone. Malaria often doesn't become symptomatic for two or three weeks after exposure, so people will often think they are sick from something else. A rule out blood test, as you say, doesn't cost much, and it may save you from a lifelong chronic disease.


Ah rats! A new blog on my last post, again.
381. vis0
Quoting 235. MountainMan41:

There were also 18 all time COLD records --But that is just counting the East Coast of the United States!!
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-col d-early-march
Quoting 237. swflEagle:



But that doesnt count... you know... because its not global warming. .....
If the original statement was just to state that it was cold in a specific area then that's fine, that can be done by a young person just joining and is enthusiastic of finding such records or by an adult whom is also just joining WxU and wants to start a conservation.  Your future posts will determine under which type of member you are.


If the reason for the post was to confuse new comers in thinking the the Globe is not warning, well you have the right to use your valuable time as you wish, but in time you'll be ignored (not be me) but my most others here.

The following is for those new comers not sure or confused that the globe is warming but the above message reads 18 COLD all-time records.

Quick reply::
18 local or even state records versus what the blogbyte states are national world records. A state record Trumps (sit down Donald, oh wait he's not here, he's practicing notes in case Mr. Bloomberg enters the campaign) MANY local records THINK if those 12 cold records were in 1 state and next year that state broke that states' cold temperature for that month all those 12 records go bye bye 'cause a STATE record covers all local temperature.  Now in the real world its that there are hundreds of local warm temperatures being broken, you just seem to look for local cooler temperatures, look and local records world wide.  This is not like choosing a wxModel that fits your opinion, its looking up REAL STATS.   Since that search takes time i don't expect a reply till next week.

Loong reply::
WOW! 18
and THINK the GLOBE still broke record warmth.
Maybe that is because the GLOBE as a whole is warming to such a point that such record brrrrrrrrrrr cold** "ain't nothing but a blip to the Globe.

Its as if you have a 103F fever and someone drops some dry ice ice cube down the back of yer shirt while yer talking the digital oral temperature.    Did the thermometer budge from reading 103F when that dry ice ice cube hit yer skin? (ok, first smack the person that dropped that ice cube (ouch), then read the temperature, did it change?

TWO, wouldn't it be nice if that displaced (push-pulled) cold polar vortex would stay in the polar region so the ice in the NORTH POLE area (Greenland included) would stay frozen.  Instead warm equatorial shots of tropical air heads up north like if El Nio has been exorcised (to soon?).  Look at      storm  xtra-tropical subtropical TS   Hurricane Alex go around the Atlantic then towards the polar area ...

(quoting from HHjoe's scientific terms "friendly ed.")

..."pounding" the Polar vortex to move towards China.   Alex looked like the Tasmanian devil coming out of El Nio. 
Washi115 stop sprinkling fake garlic powder around you.


** (i was in it and -here my nuttiness-  also state have a part in nature + aGW creating it, no i didn't leave my fridge open)

MORAL:: If you find something that disproves that the Globe as a whole (i meant to be purposely redundant, DOH did it again)  is not warming make sure the cooler or cold area affects the entire globe for more then 6-8 months so it can actually cool the planet, not a thousand  miles for 1-3 weeks.
Quoting 338. Snacker2:

Lots of these records seem Oceanic or Maritime climate. Perhaps a reflection of warming ocean temperatures.
Bingo.
Quoting 342. Bucsboltsfan:



Sorry but it's true. He uses small scale local climates as a denialistic tactic.
Do any of you people read his post, or what he says? Your comments are so wrong.