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Six U.S. Billion-Dollar Severe Weather Disasters in 2016; More Severe Weather Today

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 3:40 PM GMT on May 09, 2016

Hail and water were the most destructive forces at work in U.S. severe weather during April 2016. According to the April 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield,  two billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S. in April: a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Southeast on April 10 - 13 that cost at least $2.75 billion and killed one person, and a severe weather outbreak from April 15 - 19 in the Rockies and Plains that cost $1 billion and killed nine. (Note that Aon Benfield includes flash flood damage in its “severe weather” category.) The highly publicized severe weather of April 27 in the Southern Plains failed to make the billion-dollar threshold, although it did generate hundreds of millions in damage. 




Figure 1.  Heavy rains caused extensive flash flooding across parts of Texas on April 18, killing eight and leading to more than 1,800 water rescues in the greater Houston metropolitan area. The same storm also brought heavy snow and severe thunderstorms from April 15 - 19 to parts of the Rockies and Plains, killing one person. Damage was estimated at $1.0 billion. In this image, we see residents of an apartment complex in the Greenspoint area of north Houston use an air mattress to evacuate their flooded homes on Monday, April 18, 2016.  Image credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip.




Figure 2. Severe thunderstorms caused catastrophic hail damage across parts of the Plains and Southeast from April 10 - 13, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more. The Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio metro regions in Texas were the hardest hit, with softball and baseball-sized hail. Damage was estimated at $2.75 billion. In this photo, we see an impressive shelf cloud from a thunderstorm over Royce City, Texas, on April 11, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer Gweduc.



These events brought the tally of billion-dollar severe weather disasters so far in the U.S. to six. This ties 2016 with 2013 for the third-most billion-dollar severe weather disasters in one year. The record is nine billion-dollar severe weather disasters in 2011, with 2012 in second place with seven, according to NOAA/NCEI. There was also a $2 billion dollar winter storm in the Eastern U.S. in January, bringing the total number of U.S. billion dollar weather disasters so far in 2016 to seven:



1) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $2.0 billion, 58 killed

2) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $2.75 billion, 1 killed

3) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $1.75 billion, 0 killed

4) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed

5) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed

6) Severe Weather, Plains-Rockies U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1 billion, 9 killed

7) Severe Weather, U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.0 billion, 0 killed

Tornado impacts on the low side this spring
Thus far in 2016, the most destructive and deadly tornadic activity occurred in February with a swarm of early-season twisters, straight-line winds, and large hail across the eastern United States on February 23-24. The damage toll from the month’s severe weather was expected to top $1 billion, according to Aon Benfield in its February 2016 Catastrophe Report. Seven tornado-related deaths were recorded by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) on the February 23-24 outbreak. Otherwise, there have been only two killer tornadoes thus far in 2016: an EF2 twister in Manatee County, FL, that took two lives on January 17, and a weak EF0 tornado that killed one person in Houston, TX, during the April 27 outbreak. Seven of this year’s ten deaths have been in manufactured homes.
 
Through May 8, SPC has tallied a total of 394 preliminary tornado reports. Once this number is “inflation-adjusted” for comparison with earlier decades, when fewer people were looking for tornadoes and reporting them, 2016’s tornado total for the year thus far is lower than about 3 out of 4 years since 1950--although it only takes a single multi-day outbreak to change those numbers significantly.
 

Figure 3. Killer tornadoes for 2016 thus far. The yellow icon denotes EF1 strength; green, EF2, and blue, EF3. Not shown is the EF0 tornado that produced one fatality in Harris County, TX, on April 27. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.
 

Figure 4. WU depiction of NOAA/SPC’s convective outlook, showing the severe-weather risk areas as of mid-morning Monday for Monday and Tuesday, May 9 and 10, 2016.

This weekend’s severe weather and the outlook going forward
An upper-level storm sweeping from the western U.S into the Plains over the past weekend brought plenty of dynamics to trigger severe thunderstorms. However, moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico was relatively slow and anemic, which kept the severe weather relatively limited. Several highly visible twisters occurred in association with two supercell storms over the high plains of far northeast Colorado on Saturday, with five injuries reported. The strongest tornado, with a preliminary rating of EF2, damaged several homes and businesses along its eight-mile path north of the town of Wray. About a dozen tornadoes struck on Sunday along a dry line stretching from Nebraska to Oklahoma, with no major damage reported.
 

Figure 5. The spectacular EF2 tornado that struck just north of Wray, Colorado, on Saturday, May 7, 2016. Image credit: Bob Smith/Tempest Tours, used with permission.


More severe weather is possible as the upper-level storm system lumbers eastward Monday and Tuesday. SPC has placed a large swath from southern Iowa to northeast Texas under a slight risk (Figure 4), with an enhanced-risk area including Little Rock, AR, and Texarkana, TX. Remnant clouds and storms from Sunday night will complicate Monday’s setup, but upper-level cold air will favor very large hail over eastern OK and northeast TX. Late Tuesday, a mesoscale convective system of MCS (a large cluster of strong thunderstorms, often extending through the night) may develop near the mid-Mississippi Valley and race eastward through the Ohio Valley, with a repeat possible in the same general area on Wednesday evening. MCSs can produce damaging straight-line winds and large hail. Northwest upper-level flow should predominate later in the week, quashing the odds of any widespread severe weather until next week at the earliest.

WU contributor Lee Grenci has an interesting new post discussing the extremely dry air that fed the catastrophic spread of the Fort McMurray wildfire on Wednesday, May 4.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
 


 

Severe Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Whew thank you Doc and Mr.Henson ..it was about to get ugly on the last blog.
We're back in D.C again and some of my plants sustained damage from the hail from last week and right now its dreary and cool.After spending sometime down in 80-90 degree weather my body is still getting use to the temperature difference up here.Looks like rain is in the forecast for the entire week.When people in D.C beg for rain we get it...A LOT.
Thanks doks!
From the last blog

Quoting 438. washingtonian115:

Thanks for this.I hope we don't have another Joaquin,where in this case it heads towards a more populated area after being forecast to only be a T.S.The first advisory was actually for the storm to dissipate completely while only forecasting it to be a T.D at best out in the middle of nowhere.In the end it was a high end cat 4 that did horrible damage to the Bahamas.


No problem ... If you manipulate the URL you can see the predicted track of every storm since 2012 ...

My personal favourite of a bust forecast ... Remember Debbie was supposed to go to Texas .... and went to Florida instead

Debbie
www.co2.earth

April CO2 407.57

April 2015: 403.45 ppm

   Thanks for the interesting Post, Gentlemen.....


May 04, 2016: MODIS Aqua true color image showing heavy sediment exiting the Atchafalaya Basin in Mississippi River Delta
Delicious
Took this shot yesterday..
The past few days have been nothing short or perfection here on the Emerald Coast. Warm temps and low humidity with a nice little breeze keeping the kites aloft... We are really enjoying it knowing that it won't last much longer!

LOL
Well...I spoke to soon..I'm off for the day,take it easy out there folks.
I can remember back when Betsy in 65' was deemed the first "Billion Dollar" Hurricane.

Thus the older folk declaring, "Billion Dollar Betsy" way b4 Alice Cooper did Billion Dollar Baby.

: P


Hurricane Betsy in the Western Atlantic photographed from the TIROS VIII weather satellite September 4, 1965
Quoting 12. washingtonian115:

Well...I spoke to soon..I'm of for the day,take it easy out there folks.
same, if the juvenile political comments are not going to be handled (maybe a two strikes and your perma-banned or something) the WU advertisers will be seeing a lot less visits... imo
We had all kinda Pol blogs by members back from 08-2010, but they faded into the wind like a Tumbleweed over the horizon.


Not one survived to today.


And that is a wunderful thing.

: )
Thanks for the post, gentlemen. :)

Ah, the weather. It's gorgeous now.



+22.5 C now and almost clear skies. It has been much warmer than average and sunny for a week or so continuously. The downside to this weather is a Forest Fire Warning covering southern three quarters of the country.

It has been almost six years since there was a fatality due to severe weather in Finland. Especially when reading posts like this, I feel fortunate for my location.
Warm North Pacific Winds Predicted to Usher in Brutal Arctic Heatwave this Week

Sprawling over the Northeastern Pacific, there’s a big, doggedly-determined high pressure system. One grown to enormous size and influence in a global atmosphere boiling with the heat of fossil-fuel laden airs. A weather system that’s now able to stretch out a long arm of influence into the High Arctic due to an unrelenting northward shove of oppressive record global heat.

Link
20. bwi
Lots of warm air, warm water, and sunshine so far this melting season in the Arctic. Whether or not this year breaks the record for lowest extent set in 2012 will depend on the weather. But we're off to an unsettlingly melty start this year! And once the ice starts melting out nearly completely, first for a few summer weeks, then longer and longer, it will definitely change the northern hemisphere weather!



Accidentally "plussed" comment #19; I meant to flag it.
How to (seriously) read a scientific paper

Strategies/Advice of how scientists read through scientific papers.

Personally, I usually skim through it first - skipping over the methods section entirely - focusing upon what the paper addresses and then what the results and conclusions are.

Then, if interested, I go back and read it again in its entirety. After that, I delve into the Materials/Methods sections to determine what actually was done, determine if/what short-comings there are in the experimental design, what choices were made in doing analyses, and whether there are any errors/mistakes in the information presented.

Generally, it takes me several reads of the same paper to ascertain exactly what was done and the conclusions drawn (the devil is in the details). It will often take about a week if I am truly interested in the research.

My field of training is genetics/molecular biology/biochemistry - not weather. :D

Edit: Additionally, I'll pull up work cited in the paper I am reading (if I am not already familiar with it) and read those as well. Hence why it takes a week or so . . .
Quoting 10. JNFlori30A:

Took this shot yesterday..
The past few days have been nothing short or perfection here on the Emerald Coast. Warm temps and low humidity with a nice little breeze keeping the kites aloft... We are really enjoying it knowing that it won't last much longer!




Headed there Saturday. Fingers crossed for the same weather as past 4 days. Looks great on the webcams.
Quoting 4. VR46L:

From the last blog



No problem ... If you manipulate the URL you can see the predicted track of every storm since 2012 ...

My personal favourite of a bust forecast ... Remember Debbie was supposed to go to Texas .... and went to Florida instead

Debbie


A forecast that I nailed BTW.
It might not be offical yet and therefore missed in your blog. But the hailstorms 4 weeks ago in San Antonio are being stated to be around 1.6 billion in damages
This is not a blob.

Quoting 25. StormTrackerScott:



A forecast that I nailed BTW.


I think I remember that !

:)
Quoting 27. Grothar:

This is not a blob.



It does resemble a hummingbird . . . or maybe a dove. Is this a rorschach test?
Quoting 16. Patrap:

We had all kinda Pol blogs by members back from 08-2010, but they faded into the wind like a Tumbleweed over the horizon.


Not one survived to today.


And that is a wunderful thing.

: )



I believe the drunken rascist and expletive deleted posts of the blog owners spelled their doom. However I fondly remember their predictions of a "W" recession......gas prices soaring over 5 bucks a gallon...the stock market crashing to zero....never recovering from the recession....unemployment soaring well over 10 percent....guns being confiscated.....and the total collapse of our US governmental system....although...i'm still waiting for obama to declare martial law and make himself dictator
this is fox news....so of course it might not be factual


$1.4B in damages, insurance group says
Published April 21, 2016 FoxNews.com

An insurance group said Wednesday the hailstorm that hit the San Antonio area last week cost nearly $1.4 billion in damages, the costliest in state history.
Glad it was removed. I saw it and logged out. We all have our own political views but that was clearly in violation of the Rules of the Blog.

Quoting 21. oldnewmex:

Accidentally "plussed" comment #19; I meant to flag it.
*shakes fist at SPC*



SPC AC 091730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH
AND WRN TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND TX HILL COUNTRY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU NEWD
INTO CNTRL TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND AROUND THE HILL COUNTRY OF
TEXAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MS AND MID MS VALLEYS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER W OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER/MID MS
VALLEY SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHILE THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND DEVELOPS A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW WHILE SLOWLY MOVING NEWD. PRESENCE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN BROAD TROUGHINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WRN/CNTRL CONUS. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU NEWD
TOWARDS THE MID MO VALLEY WITH UPPER RIDGING ALSO BUILDING ACROSS
ONTARIO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD/SEWD FROM AN OCCLUDING
LOW OVER ERN MT WILL SHARPEN AS ITS REINFORCED BY ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ALONG ITS NRN PERIPHERY. LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER/MID
MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND BECOMES A PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH EVENTUAL
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. BY 00Z/WED...SURFACE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE: /1/ AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
ESEWD FROM THE LOW OVER ERN MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS A WEAK LOW
OVER MID MO VALLEY AND WITH A COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDING SWWD TO THE
LEE LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.../2/ A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE WEAK LOW OVER THE MID MO VALLEY SEWD INTO NRN IND...AND /3/ A
LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LOW ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALL OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE TSTM THREAT ON TUESDAY.

...LWR OH VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT DESCRIBED IN THE SYNOPSIS AS
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PROMOTES WAA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS E TX AND THE LWR MS
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY NEAR THE
MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY SOURCE OF DESTABILIZATION.

PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS CASTS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY W OF THE MS RIVER AND FARTHER S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TN...WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES RESULTING FROM THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION LIKELY THE ONLY LIFTING MECHANISM S OF THE WARM
FRONT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORTING MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J
PER KG. THIS KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND A SLIGHT
RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

...EDWARDS PLATEAU/TX HILL COUNTRY...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS RATHER
NEBULOUS BUT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK HEATING...SUGGESTING THE RETREATING DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW EXISTS BELOW 700-MB
BUT ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN
MT AND THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL PROVIDE THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT
ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. ISOLATED HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


I have only one question: Why did the Slight Risk get moved further east?
Quoting 28. VR46L:



I think I remember that !

:)


Like the El-Nino I got ripped to shreds from just about everyone. Poor Levi32 that day not one of his best moments for sure. Saying Debbie was heading to Texas when it was closing in on the West Coast of FL.

We've all had them though so not to just single him out as I said we've all had days like that on here.
Thanks for the update; here is the current look for Conus:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Quoting 32. ricderr:

this is fox news....so of course it might not be factual


$1.4B in damages, insurance group says
Published April 21, 2016 FoxNews.com

An insurance group said Wednesday the hailstorm that hit the San Antonio area last week cost nearly $1.4 billion in damages, the costliest in state history.



I remember that. I think that storm hit during the overnight hours if I'm not mistaken. I remember watching that storm on radar and saying oh boy San Antonio is in trouble.
No, no it is not.


It is....Mothra! The next billion dollar disaster and not even Capt. Trough can stop it. Thanks for the warning Mr. Gro.

Link

Quoting 27. Grothar:

This is not a blob.


Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

Whew thank you Doc and Mr.Henson ..it was about to get ugly on the last blog.
We're back in D.C again and some of my plants sustained damage from the hail from last week and right now its dreary and cool.After spending sometime down in 80-90 degree weather my body is still getting use to the temperature difference up here.Looks like rain is in the forecast for the entire week.When people in D.C beg for rain we get it...A LOT.


We are approaching records for number of consecutive days with measurable rain recorded. Another today 5/10. Garden is soggy and looks like it will stay that way all week. Continued pretty cool also!
Quoting 27. Grothar:

This is not a blob.




So it's a contra-blob?
It's a Monarch Butterfly, trying to get an early jump on the Fall migration to North America (the Mother of all Monarchs).........................

Quoting 27. Grothar:

This is not a blob.



Quoting 27. Grothar:

This is not a blob.




Definitely a hummingbird!

Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



I remember that. I think that storm hit during the overnight hours if I'm not mistaken. I remember watching that storm on radar and saying oh boy San Antonio is in trouble.

the decking

depending n the area....as the san antonion metro area is hge...storms hit at night...day and evening....i've seen a picture of a hail storm that looks like the larger nerf football....i've seen a roof where it cracked the decking.....in a metro area of well over two million people...thet're expecting about 80 percent of the homes to be damaged when it's all said and done
Hey, I estimated that the Colorado tornado was an EF2 during the Reed Timmer video discussion. I get things right occasionally.

Hopefully for the rest of the tornado season, the tornadoes stay away from any populated areas.
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:





Apophasis/paralipsis anyone?
Quoting 10. JNFlori30A:
Took this shot yesterday..
The past few days have been nothing short or perfection here on the Emerald Coast. Warm temps and low humidity with a nice little breeze keeping the kites aloft... We are really enjoying it knowing that it won't last much longer!



Walton County?
Quoting 25. StormTrackerScott:



A forecast that I nailed BTW.


btw, welcome back to the blog. I see you humbled a bit:)

Quoting 27. Grothar no-blob hummingbird:

Remember how I keep telling you as above, so below?
Quoting 46. NttyGrtty:



Walton County?
Good guess! this is the small coastal community of Blue Mountain Beach...
Why this could finally be the election where climate change matters

“The Clinton campaign sees polling showing profound political vulnerability on climate for the Republicans generally and Trump specifically, so the Clinton camp intends to push climate themes aggressively, ” adds Paul Bledsoe, who worked on climate issues in the former Clinton White House and is now an independent energy consultant. “They see GOP climate denial fitting into a larger narrative of Trump and the Republicans being willing to deny factual information injurious to the American public just because it doesn’t fit into Tea Party ideology. That will be a meta-theme of the campaign, and climate fits into it.”


Chris Mooney
I have a similar routine. A well written executive summary goes a long way in getting the "what", "where" "when" and "why". Then I dig into the technical section for the "how". If it's being submitted to a technical clearing house (DTIC, for example), I read the abstract mostly looking for any technical tidbits that may have been intentionally left out of the executive summary. Then the whole shebang cover to cover and finish up with a second (or third, or forth, depending on the document) detailed perusal through the technical section linking results to conclusions and recommendations and especially looking for any breaks in the logic train. Takes me a week sometimes too and my field is flight test applied mathematics/operations research/design of experiments...

Quoting 22. daddyjames:
How to (seriously) read a scientific paper

Strategies/Advice of how scientists read through scientific papers.

Personally, I usually skim through it first - skipping over the methods section entirely - focusing upon what the paper addresses and then what the results and conclusions are.

Then, if interested, I go back and read it again in its entirety. After that, I delve into the Materials/Methods sections to determine what actually was done, determine if/what short-comings there are in the experimental design, what choices were made in doing analyses, and whether there are any errors/mistakes in the information presented.

Generally, it takes me several reads of the same paper to ascertain exactly what was done and the conclusions drawn (the devil is in the details). It will often take about a week if I am truly interested in the research.

My field of training is genetics/molecular biology/biochemistry - not weather. :D

Edit: Additionally, I'll pull up work cited in the paper I am reading (if I am not already familiar with it) and read those as well. Hence why it takes a week or so . . .
Just looked like something off 30A. Never been but then I don't get east of Fort Walton any more...

Quoting 49. JNFlori30A:
Good guess! this is the small coastal community of Blue Mountain Beach...
outflow boundaries moving west should fizzle out but clearly the western carib is becoming more favorable
Quoting 47. luvtogolf:



btw, welcome back to the blog. I see you humbled a bit:)




LOL! Humbled or bitter take your pick. Taking it day by day but I'm beginning to get into a more normal routine which is good.
I saw an interview yesterday with a firefighter , these woods have areas where the "duff" is 2 meters deep.

Duff layer
A layer of moderately to highly decomposed leaves, needles, fine twigs, and other organic material found between the mineral soil surface and litter layer of forest soil.


Fort McMurray Fire Slowed Sunday by Light Rain — Despite Progress, Officials Expect Blaze to Burn for Months

On Saturday, the Fort McMurray fire rapidly expanded — threatening the greenhouse gas emitting tar sands facilities north of town and making a race toward the Saskatchewan border. But by Sunday, cooler temperatures and very light rain in some areas (with accumulations of less than 1 mm), helped to stymie what, until that time, was an entirely uncontrollable blaze.

Link
Southern Africa has been in a terrible drought. But Durban just set a new 24 hour rainfall record.

The SA Weather Service says 126 millimetres of rain was recorded from Saturday into Sunday at Merebank in Durban South.
The previous record figure at that station was just over 110 millimetres in 1971.


The showers, however were isolated on the coast with no significant rainfall recorded inland.
Spiralling global temperatures





Click image for animation
you mean the central and eastern caribbean
this is the western caribbean...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

Quoting 53. islander101010:

outflow boundaries moving west should fizzle out but clearly the western carib is becoming more favorable
Quoting 58. JohnLonergan:
Spiralling global temperatures

Very creepy graphic, John.

And this is creepy as well:
Armed guards protect last water in drought-parched Indian city
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Mon, 9 May 2016 06:07 GMT
TIKAMGARH, India, May 9 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Authorities in this drought-parched city in central India have deployed round-the-clock armed guards at a river-fed community reservoir to prevent farmers from siphoning the remaining water for irrigation.
With rainfall in Tikamgarh district this year 52 percent below average - the second dry year for the area - water is now available to city residents only sporadically, with fears even that may run out during the peak heat months of May and June, authorities say.
Forty-seven-year-old Suryakant Tiwari, one city resident, said his family and many others now have drinking and household water supplied only once every five days.
"I have not seen such a condition in my lifetime. Almost every water source in the area has dried up. We don't know how we will survive," Tiwari he said. ...

Whole article see link above.

Fortunately there are also some good news from India:
Wheat output up despite drought
The southwest monsoon in 2015 was almost 14 per cent less than normal, the fourth case of consecutive drought years in a century
Sanjeeb Mukherjee | New Delhi May 10, 2016 Last Updated at 00:15 IST
dry and pleasantly warm in the suwannee river vailey with cool mornings, so far. we could use some rain but it keeps going north.
Next Thanksgiving I am going to have to ask my racist uncle if he follows weather blogs too, perhaps that will be something we share in common and can talk about.
Quoting 50. RobertWC:

Why this could finally be the election where climate change matters



Chris Mooney


Agreed. I believe we had a conversation about this before - and may be reflective, in part why some in the GOP (Tea Partiers) have an issue with "The Establishment".

GOP states benefiting from shift to wind and solar energy

For Republicans from areas benefiting from renewable energy, the political calculus can be complicated. An increasing number of them try to balance criticizing Obama's environmental efforts with quietly supporting the federal tax incentives helping drive investment in renewables.

An example of the GOP Establishment not heeding what some in their base want?

Interestingly enough - one of those OK Tea party affiliated representatives, Sen J. Lankford of OK, wants to do away with it
U.S. Sen. Lankford Moves to Permanently ‘Sunset’ Federal Wind Incentive.

While the state of Oklahoma (heavily dominated by GOP) has declined to do so
Bills to rein in Oklahoma tax subsidies face opposition

Even under the stress of having gutted the budget the past few years.
State Business Tax Breaks More Than Double, to $760 Million
Oil And Gas Tax Collections Hit 17-Year Low

Somewhat ironically, the business that has benefited greatly from subsidies: Understanding Oklahoma’s new tax rates on oil and gas production

Is the one advocating for subsidies to end on Wind Power: As State Finances Stumble, Oil and Gas Leaders Rally to End Tax Credits For Wind



Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:




I told people back last June Trump would be the Nominee and no way in hell does Hillary want to face Trump as she will be exposed for what she really is. Crooked Hillary
Welcome back, Scott. The blog was little boring without you around. Hopefully the preferences of your candidate will start increasing just like the SST s in Nino 3.4 last year around this time, just like you predicted.
The boiling frog turns into the leap frogs .

Genius. .

South Africa now has its own divest from fossil fuels campaign and they’ve put together a pretty smart video:


Break Free From Fossil Fuels
65. daddyjames

"Why do all the football fields in Oklahoma have astro turf ?"

Because their cheer leaders were grazing after the games.

Quoting 70. hurricaneben:



If you wanted a candidate genuinely interested in the future welfare of the environment, of our climate, of our ecosystems, you would be all in for Jill Stein, you would most certainly vote Green. See, you brought politics to this previously appealing website, this is what you get. Unanimous vote for Hillary? Oh I'm sorry but the weak, the poor, the masses, the youth, the individuals condescended upon by the ruling class (corporate, Wall Street, federal gov, etc) will gamble for drastic reform and boy will they fume in rage if their desires are not fulfilled.
If you aim to mix politics with science, and you want consistency, the Green Party is your answer.


No, actually was illustrating that the GOP is pretty divided about this themselves - not advocating of one side versus another. And since Oklahoma is about as "red" as you can get, pretty illustrative of the deep division that exists within the GOP at the moment.
Quoting 72. RobertWC:

65. daddyjames

"Why do all the football fields in Oklahoma have astro turf ?"

Because their cheer leaders were grazing after the games.




:P
lots of good news out there. honey bees are swarming a great sign for us humans http://thelazybfarm.com/why-do-honeybees-swarm
whats worse we arent doing anything about it....the effort would have to be such a large scale attempt one wonders if its possible....maybe we can change our orbit! or draw cold in from the upper atmosphere! Its out there but one does wodner if we are just too deep in the hole
Quoting 58. JohnLonergan:

Spiralling global temperatures





Click image for animation
As my little one and I drive by pastureland, we name the cattle:
Beef, Brisket, Ribs, Tenderloin, Sirloin, NY Strip, Hamburger ....

Edit: Corrected the obvious typo on one of the "cuts" of meat.
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:



Like the El-Nino I got ripped to shreds from just about everyone. Poor Levi32 that day not one of his best moments for sure. Saying Debbie was heading to Texas when it was closing in on the West Coast of FL.

We've all had them though so not to just single him out as I said we've all had days like that on here.


In real life I only have seven such days a week.
Years of drought breaks as Central Australia enjoys big weekend wet
NT Country Hour, By Nathan Coates, Updated earlier today at 9:16am
Five years of drought has broken at Curtin Springs cattle station near Uluru.
The notoriously dry property 350 kilometres southwest of Alice Springs has received more than 60 millimetres of rain since last Friday.
Ash Severin from the station said the last useful rain was nearly five years ago.
"The old grass is starting to rejuvenate which will stop the cattle from dying," he said. ...

Whole long article see link above.

Micronesia drought conditions easing
5:46 pm on 9 May 2016
A professor of meteorology says drought conditions in Micronesia are easing but normal levels of rainfall are unlikely to return until the end of the year. ..

India: Farmers hit by heavy rains after drought
In the Warangal district in the Indian state of Telangana, the farming community has been suffering from the effects of drought on their crops; now they have also been hit by untimely rains which descended on the district for the past three days.
Mango orchards, banana plantations and vegetable cultivators have suffered huge losses because of the sudden rains and heavy gales.
Horticulture officials are yet to assess the extent of damage across the district, but according to sources, horticultural crops on about 2,000 hectares have been damaged. 'The yield this time is much less due to drought conditions and now the heavy gales have added to our woes,' lamented a farmer. ...


Kansas Winter Wheat Recieves Helpful Rain Boost
By Jonathan Baker - 7 hours ago
Kansas's winter wheat crop has received a timely boost from Mother Nature, reports The Garden City Telegram. After threats of a returning drought, recent rains brought yearly rain totals up past normal amounts for this time of year. ...

For a change, an accumulation of (quite) good news when you google "drought". Guess this is thanks to Godzilla Nino departing :-)
I have never hit the flag button so much in a day until today.
Season getting closer as the Navy starts exercising







Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



I remember that. I think that storm hit during the overnight hours if I'm not mistaken. I remember watching that storm on radar and saying oh boy San Antonio is in trouble.


Since Scott didn't notice and might be interested, I'll just say that on 5/2 I saw the worst hail I've seen in fifty years at my College Park MD house. Garden was not ruined but was severely damaged and native and wild vegetation is also locally much worse than in other areas around us. I was away and could not find any stones larger than grape size in the large piles of hail at the side of the house but my wife and kids say the largest pieces were nickel to quarter size. Plant stems up to 10mm were cleanly severed by whatever was flying through the air. About 10-15mm accumulation on the level, much more at the side of the house and that lasted for a day. No structural damage and this storm was bad for enormous numbers (sheets and waves) of flying ice balls, not the size of individual ones though other DC locales got up to 2.5" hail pieces from two OTHER separate supercells (I got #3)
76. daddyjames

Just look at Kansas (Home of the Kochs), Sam Brownback put the whole Tea Party theory in place.

He blew their budget up.
It's like Ray-gun , all over again . After he took the solar panels off the White House. He tripled the national debt And the Savings and Loans exploded.

The Wrecking Crew: How Conservatives Ruined Government, Enriched Themselves, and Beggared the Nation – August 18, 2009


by Thomas Frank


Then we got listen to 30 years of them claiming wisdom on how to run the country .
What going on under ground weather why all these posts about politics can we focus on the weather I know it's quite but I am sure there many political blog to post politics on
Quoting 74. daddyjames:



No, actually was illustrating that the GOP is pretty divided about this themselves - not advocating of one side versus another. And since Oklahoma is about as "red" as you can get, pretty illustrative of the deep division that exists within the GOP at the moment.


Well, in that case, you are right and I do tend to loathe both parties' "establishments"... The GOP 'Clown Car' meme floating around is fairly amusing and accurate. But also consider the DNC establishment, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and what a loon she is... so, both sides frankly appall me (and amuse me) at this point.
Quoting 86. RobertWC:

76. daddyjames

Just look at Kansas (Home of the Kochs), Sam Brownback put the whole Tea Party theory in place.

He blew their budget up.
It's like Ray-gun , all over again . After he took the solar panels off the White House. He tripled the national debt And the Savings and Loans exploded.

The Wrecking Crew: How Conservatives Ruined Government, Enriched Themselves, and Beggared the Nation – August 18, 2009


by Thomas Frank


Then we got listen to 30 years of them claiming wisdom on how to run the country .


We here in Oklahoma commiserate with those in Kansas. Although, our competitive spirit still wants us to "win" the race - even if it is to the bottom. :(
Quoting 83. washingtonian115:

I have never hit the flag button so much in a day until today.


Climate Change is now on the front burner. The most important issue man has ever faced. And only politics will change our fate.
89. daddyjames

I'm at Lubbock, Texas. We have alfalfa trucked into our cheer leaders.
Quoting 91. RobertWC:

89. daddyjames

I'm at Lubbock, Texas. We have alfalfa delivered to our cheer leaders.


You cotton-pickin' Texans!
Damaging tornado on TWC.
Quoting 93. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Damaging tornado on TWC.


Pauls Valley Oklahoma.
This season seems interesting for the Caribbean. It's been a lot less dry this year, with vertical instability being close to average and even above average at times. Another thing is that the ongoing drought in South America should subside a bit, at least in the northern parts (such as Venezuela) as heavy rains have been falling and a shift to a La Nina pattern typically increases rainfall in that part of the world. So there shouldn't be too much dry air coming off the South American continent as compared to recent years. In addition, a La Nina pattern should greatly reduce the screaming/roaring wind shear that has been in place over large parts of the Caribbean for the last couple years. Finally, all the analog years that have been picked out have tended to have increased TC activity in the Caribbean. I have a bad feeling about this year.
Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:



Pauls Valley Oklahoma.


Dang I was hoping that we had escaped the worst . . . .
You can live stream local weather if you want
Quoting 92. daddyjames:



You cotton-pickin' Texans!


If yer wearing blue jeans , It was grown 75 miles from me.
It's like being drunk in car with F. Scott Fitzgerald in 1928.

George Gershwin - Rhapsody in Blue
Actually south of Paul's Valley - heading straight for Joy, OK.
Joy, OK tornado
Quoting 93. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Damaging tornado on TWC.

http://www.koco.com/news/watch-live-tracking-seve re-weather-across-oklahoma/38040684

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/
Some frightening looks at the tornado from Jeromy Carter earlier, but transmission was/is sketchy.
well you could live stream it until a moment ago . . .
Storm is cycling now, but that was some of the quickest motion I've seen on a tornado live.
Quoting 97. RobertWC:



If yer wearing blue jeans , It was grown 75 miles from me.
It's like being drunk in car with F. Scott Fitzgerald in 1928.

George Gershwin - Rhapsody in Blue



That is one of my favorite compositions.
Extreme damage being reported from chasers. This was probably a violent tornado.
Video snippet in that tweet:
Link
Quoting 102. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Storm is cycling now, but that was some of the quickest motion I've seen on a tornado live.


Thankfully as it is passing over Joy right now. Damage to homes and businesses. Some homes completely leveled unfortunately in the Elmore City area.
Looks like there should be another tornado in the Davis area based on the recent radar presentation.
Ok, nothing close to me (yet) but have to go get the little one, and pick up some supplies - just in case. Catch you all later. Hopefully everyone will be ok south of me.
nvm fail post.
Absolutely enormous tornado on the ground now.
all hell is breaking loss we have a 2 miles wide wedge tornado on the ground
Yeah, huge wedge. Hope it doesn't hit anything.
Quoting 113. Sfloridacat5:

Yeah, huge wedge. Hope it doesn't hit anything.



your too late it has all ready hit
large wedge now with the wynnewood storm.
I've got immediate family in Roff; they've already sheltered...

117. IDTH
Good lord! Watching TWC right now, the tornado is huge and well defined on radar.
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE HICKORY AND ROFF AREAS...
What a beast; hoping for the best for all affected.
TWC Tornado Emergency in Sulpher Oklahoma. Its a Very Large Wedge you must be underground for this one. This is seriously a monster prayers for everyone in the path.
Wow that wedge is just wow
This TWC stream is unlike anything I've ever seen. Absolutely gigantic tornado with crazy motion moving slowly.

This is a VIOLENT tornado. Everybody needs to be underground.
That donut hole - bad news
Quoting 123. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This TWC stream is unlike anything I've ever seen. Absolutely gigantic tornado with crazy motion moving slowly.

This is a VIOLENT tornado. Everybody needs to be underground.


what are the winds on the rader i bet its off the charts
126. IDTH
I haven't seen a Tornado like that since I witnessed the Joplin Tornado live on TWC. I'm so grateful that I've never seen a Tornado in real life, it's my greatest fear and I've always been super paranoid when I see Tornado warnings near my county.
Quoting 116. Neapolitan:

I've got immediate family in Roff; they've already sheltered...


Umm, best wishes to your folks, Nea!
Confirmed tornado headed in the direction of Shawnee. Also an organizing supercell headed toward Durant.
The worse thing is happening with this Large Tornado in Oklahoma its rain wrapped so its just about impossible to see it coming
Quoting 128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Confirmed tornado headed in the direction of Shawnee. Also an organizing supercell headed toward Durant.
Stream?
Quoting 128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Confirmed tornado headed in the direction of Shawnee. Also an organizing supercell headed toward Durant.



looks like we have a tornado out break on going right now with vary strong tornado so i wounder what kind of set up we have today that we did not have on sunday?
Terrible, but beautiful:

A lot of supercells blowing up across I-35. Unexpected tornado outbreak?
Quoting 133. Neapolitan:

Terrible, but beautiful:




Would you mind posting a link to that stream? Thank you Nea.
Quoting 135. CybrTeddy:



Would you mind posting a link to that stream? Thank you Nea.
Weather Channel has a live one, as well...

Here you go
Well, this sucks . . . under tornado warning (north side of Payne County, OK). Tornado on the ground. Not going to provide any pictures as i live in a "valley". Only 5 mins away - heading the bathroom (aka the shelter).
Tracker said tornado was on the ground in Stillwater.
Now north of Stillwater on the ground
Large Cone just north of Stillwater on the ground.
Quoting 138. daddyjames:

Well, this sucks . . . under tornado warning (north side of Payne County, OK). Tornado on the ground. Not going to provide any pictures as i live in a "valley". Only 5 mins away - heading the bathroom (aka the shelter).


Good luck! Check in as soon as you can!
There appear to be a couple more potentially strong tornadoes on the ground with two cells in southeast Oklahoma.
"Very large Cone tornado on the ground" heading towards Morison, Oklahoma.
roped out for the moment
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


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SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 620 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 619 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 616 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 614 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 614 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 614 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 612 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 612 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 610 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 610 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 610 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 610 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 609 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
Quoting 134. CybrTeddy:

A lot of supercells blowing up across I-35. Unexpected tornado outbreak?

Not unexpected, just have a day this year where the potential was actually realized instead of busting.
Here's the link to a couple of streams.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psLvh1EoCf8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGc2ZGO1FJo
Quoting 149. Geoboy645:

Here's the link to a couple of streams.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psLvh1EoCf8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGc2ZGO1FJo







Passed just north of me. Not a drop of rain or hail here. The area it passed through is not highly populated, but there are reports of damage. Impressive to see.
NWS TulsaVerified account ‏@NWStulsa 2m2 minutes ago
Tornado reported on the ground near Boswell. Elevated rotation is very strong. Take cover! #okwx
Fire rescue cutting people out of a vehicle hit by the tornado that was near lehigh (north of Stillwater area). Car is upside down. Hopefully everyone in the vehicle makes it.
Quoting 153. Sfloridacat5:

Fire rescue cutting people out of a vehicle hit by the tornado that was near lehigh (north of Stillwater area). Car is upside down. Hopefully everyone in the vehicle makes it.


Lehigh is to the southeast of OKC. I know, the coverage was a bit confusing.
Near Winnewood, one fatality confirmed at the moment.

P.S. - i was expecting this sort of thing yesterday. Not today!
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SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 643 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 641 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 636 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 632 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 628 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 628 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
Quoting 133. Neapolitan:

Terrible, but beautiful:




Yup, it looked exactly like that!
Quoting 154. daddyjames:



That was from News9 live news as I was watching it earlier. They may have got the names crossed.
Quoting 157. Sfloridacat5:



That was from Bay9 live news as I was watching it earlier. They may have got the names crossed.


Even the coverage here on NEWS9 (OKC) was confusing - I had to wait to determine where they were talking about.
New tornado heading towards Deer Creek in north central Oklahoma.
Garvin and Johnston counties (2 fatalites so far) - News9 live
Brittany Harlow %u200F@BrittanyHNews 2m2 minutes ago
Johnston County Sheriff confirms at least 1 dead, massive damage in Connerville/Bromide area

KOKH FOX 25Verified account %u200F@OKCFOX 1m1 minute ago
Officials reporting a second fatality from severe storms in Johnston County
I know that bringing this up now may not be the most appropriate, seeing as how tornadoes have been flaring up today....but I'm at the point where I need to start figuring out what to do with my life career wise, and meteorology is definitely the direction that I want to go...However I have it in my mind that I also want to remain close to home and help shape the community that my family started 5 generations ago....

I'm not that into working in the media and I like to write....Now I'm aware that I'll have to make sacrifices sometimes, but meteorology is definitely the route I want to pursue. I just have some worries that I'm sure everyone has when they make a career choice..

I guess Im asking that if anyone has any ideas how I could prepare myself for pursuing a career and education in meteorology, please let me know...Id sincerely appreciate it...

Any bits of advice or knowledge from experience would be helpful.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 701 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 659 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 659 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 659 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 659 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 656 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 653 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
Still a few bugs in my Rolling Severe auto load coding app. It's coming along, but today it has been all manual inputs, copy to paste, etc.
NWS TulsaVerified account ‏@NWStulsa 44s44 seconds ago
Tornado reported on the ground moving into Hugo. Take cover now!!
Quoting 164. JrWeathermanFL:

I know that bringing this up now may not be the most appropriate, seeing as how tornadoes have been flaring up today....but I'm at the point where I need to start figuring out what to do with my life career wise, and meteorology is definitely the direction that I want to go...However I have it in my mind that I also want to remain close to home and help shape the community that my family started 5 generations ago....

I'm not that into working in the media and I like to write....Now I'm aware that I'll have to make sacrifices sometimes, but meteorology is definitely the route I want to pursue. I just have some worries that I'm sure everyone has when they make a career choice..

I guess Im asking that if anyone has any ideas how I could prepare myself for pursuing a career and education in meteorology, please let me know...Id sincerely appreciate it...

Any bits of advice or knowledge from experience would be helpful.


Well, do well in math, physics, and the sciences. Understand computers/programming and probabilities/statistics. Be prepared to work hard during your studies (math and science are challenging and a huge demand on time). And be prepared for every one to be mad at you whenever it rains. ;)
Wow that tornado in/around Shawnee was pretty scary looking. Happy that did not happen up here in Payne County. I can only hope that it did not hit too many homes.
ugh, where I work (Tonkawa, OK) may be under the gun as well. Nothing on the ground but a huge storm up there just west of Blackwell.

Update: actually that will pass north of where I work (whew).
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SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 709 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 708 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 706 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 706 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 703 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
  • College of DuPage Meteorology
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    SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 712 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

    SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 711 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 722 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 719 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 718 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016
<>img src="https://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagene w/g/gunhilda/20.jpg;" max-width: 501px;
width: 500px;>

View from my office this evening, of the storm that went north of Stillwater.

Or not, since I can't figure out how to post it... Nor how to delete this post...
Quoting 175. gunhilda:





View from my office this evening, of the storm that went north of Stillwater.

Or not, since I can't figure out how to post it... Nor how to delete this post...


there we go - there was a space in the address for some reason.
PS - really nice photo
eastern caribbean
by the time they pass south of Jamaica anything is dead
Quoting 95. Envoirment:

This season seems interesting for the Caribbean. It's been a lot less dry this year, with vertical instability being close to average and even above average at times. Another thing is that the ongoing drought in South America should subside a bit, at least in the northern parts (such as Venezuela) as heavy rains have been falling and a shift to a La Nina pattern typically increases rainfall in that part of the world. So there shouldn't be too much dry air coming off the South American continent as compared to recent years. In addition, a La Nina pattern should greatly reduce the screaming/roaring wind shear that has been in place over large parts of the Caribbean for the last couple years. Finally, all the analog years that have been picked out have tended to have increased TC activity in the Caribbean. I have a bad feeling about this year.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 6h6 hours ago
Warm SSTs off East Coast historically associated w/ LESS landfalling hurricanes than cool
Quoting 181. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 6h6 hours ago
Warm SSTs off East Coast historically associated w/ LESS landfalling hurricanes than cool

This might be false security. I'd argue that cooler waters are historically associated with more landfalling hurricanes because the ocean temperature anomaly pattern is more favorable when the MDR is warm, subtropics are cool, and North Atlantic is warm, meaning that more tropical cyclones form in the basin. More cyclones = a higher chance for landfalls. While the current configuration, with a warm MDR, even warmer subtropics, and cold North Atlantic is a generally unfavorable configuration, it means that cyclones pose an even greater risk for impact.
2400 structures were burned by the Fort McMurray fire according to the latest assessment.
Fort McMurray just had its record driest October to April, and its 2nd warmest such period on record. It also just had its record hottest temperature during the period before May 6 in any calendar year, with a temperature of 32.6 C / 90.7 F on May 3, 2016, beating the previous record of 30.6 C / 87.1 F, which was set on May 2, 1980. There was no snow there after February this year. Fort McMurray has been trending warmer (red curve) and drier (blue curve) during October to April over the last few decades, as shown by these graphs.

are we done for the night for tornados ?
Quoting 175. gunhilda:

img src="https://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagene w/g/gunhilda/20.jpg;" max-width: 501px;
width: 500px;>

View from my office this evening, of the storm that went north of Stillwater.

Or not, since I can't figure out how to post it... Nor how to delete this post...
Take out the s from "https" and the image will load. https is a new bug security feature.
Amazing to see that the Wynnewood, OK tornado today was essentially a clone of the Moore 1999 tornado. The evolution and structure of the tornado were very similar.
Quoting 179. daddyjames:



there we go - there was a space in the address for some reason.
PS - really nice photo
Agreed .... went back and plussed the post .... :o)

Quoting 186. BaltimoreBrian:

Take out the s from "https" and the image will load. https is a new bug security feature.
The space in new is also a factor.

Easiest way to post a pic is to grab the URL, open the image icon below the comment box and put the URL into the dialogue box. It works [surprisingly] well.
Quoting 187. CybrTeddy:

Amazing to see that the Wynnewood, OK tornado today was essentially a clone of the Moore 1999 tornado. The evolution and structure of the tornado were very similar.
Perhaps pointing to a more specific classification and perhaps better forecast modelling?
Seems like it was an unexpectedly active afternoon on the Plains .... sure hope the casualties stay low. Looking at some of the images, it seems amazing only a couple people have died and a few additional others have been injured ....


Going to be toasty again and no Rain in sight...
Top 5 tornado video of all time for sure:

Quoting 190. BahaHurican:

Seems like it was an unexpectedly active afternoon on the Plains .... sure hope the casualties stay low. Looking at some of the images, it seems amazing only a couple people have died and a few additional others have been injured ....


That's a nice wish, Baha. Dryline setup, in OK anyway, performed as and where progged. Traveling east from SW OK today, I had a great view of the storms from about 3-6 pm as I drove toward them. Just to give you an idea, this photo was a few minutes before the first tornado warning on the cell that headed at Wynnewood and points east.

This is just the more southern part of the view.


Amazing to watch the storms change from a distance.
Link
According to GWO, El nino is done, won't be long that NOAA will follow suit.
Quoting 191. PedleyCA:


Going to be toasty again and no Rain in sight...



SoCal is going to rival death valley if this keeps up...

I wish I could send some of our rain in Anchorage. It isn't like we are flooding and don't need it, but I sure think that you need it more than we do.

The last two weeks of May might see a HUGE uptick in severe weather over the central portion of the United States, including a greater threat for tornadoes. I believe a significant pattern change is coming between the 17th and the 20th, with high pressure developing over the East and low pressure developing over the Rockies/plains. This is counter to the pattern we've experienced since April, with frequent troughs (low pressure) over the East; eastern troughs produce offshore winds which stifles instability, and thus thunderstorm development.

This same pattern could also give rise to our second tropical storm of the season in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico during the first few weeks of June. I know that's a tall order, but I can support it with actual data. I'm far more credible than that.
Quoting 78. islander101010:

lots of good news out there. honey bees are swarming a great sign for us humans http://thelazybfarm.com/why-do-honeybees-swarm


Swarming of bees is good for the bees, bad for the beekeeper, have of the hive leaves, the bees gorge themselves with honey leaving very little behind to harvest. I caught 2 of my own swarm hives this year and have 2 more hives to take care of, I usually give my extra Nuc hives to struggling beekeepers. This year is an exceptional year for the bees, their producing lots of honey and reproducing at a alarming rate at my house, I've had several other beekeepers come over to my apiary, (beehives) and say I'm the exception with bees, great location, and darn lucky with nature!
Quoting 197. trunkmonkey:



Swarming of bees is good for the bees, bad for the beekeeper, half of the hive leaves, the bees gorge themselves with honey leaving very little behind to harvest. I caught 2 of my own swarm hives this year and have 2 more hives to take care of, I usually give my extra Nuc hives to struggling beekeepers. This year is an exceptional year for the bees, their producing lots of honey and reproducing at a alarming rate at my house, I've had several other beekeepers come over to my apiary, (beehives) and say I'm the exception with bees, great location, and darn lucky with nature!
Can anyone tell my why this site crashes my computer every time I come to this site?

A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, open the script in the debugger, or let the script continue.

Script: https://ajax.googleapis.com/aj…ibs/jquery/1.7.2/ jquery.min.js:3
i get warnings on occasion acc/ with a few adds. plenty of moisture in the eastern carib. black and white wvapor
Quoting 199. trunkmonkey:

Can anyone tell my why this site crashes my computer every time I come to this site?

A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, open the script in the debugger, or let the script continue.

Script: https://ajax.googleapis.com/aj…ibs/jquery/1.7.2/ jquery.min.js:3
U gotta nuke that script... will say more later, but gotta run right now!
Quoting 192. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Top 5 tornado video of all time for sure:


That's a good one, to be sure. My brother is on the Wynnewood PD; he was a little busy yesterday afternoon...
Good Morning. The snapshot forecast for today and current look:



And the storm reports from yesterday including the Wynnewood tornado; makes we want to go out and buy a dash cam from Best Buy:

yesterday Reports Graphic



And the Aussie Mets are also declaring the end of El Nino; however, there is a time lag and a waning El Nino produces the most tornadoes for the US season. Have to agree with the comment below that we will probably see an uptick in tornado activity in the coming weeks:

El Niño drawing closer to an end

The tropical Pacific Ocean has weakened to borderline El Niño-neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean cooled further in the past fortnight, driven by cooler than average waters below the surface. Atmospheric indicators are also trending towards normal. Trade winds have been consistently near normal for some weeks. Typical El Niño cloud patterns are dissipating and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), while still negative, is steadily rising.

All international models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with seven of eight models exceeding La Niña thresholds by September 2016. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

Based on recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This means the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%.

Typically during La Niña, winter-spring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.

Very warm sea surface temperatures continue across large parts of the Indian Ocean. Likewise, ocean temperatures around Australia remain well above average. Warmth in these two regions may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the coming months.

Quoting 183. DCSwithunderscores:

2400 structures were burned by the Fort McMurray fire according to the latest assessment.


Despite 'ocean of fire' that raged around Fort McMurray, about 90 per cent of structures saved

While an “ocean of fire” raged around Fort McMurray last week, somehow, only about 10 per cent of the city was destroyed, leaving much of its critical infrastructure intact.

About 2,400 structures were turned to ash and debris as the wildfire ripped through the northern Alberta oil capital last week, while 25,000 others were spared — including every functioning school, the hospital and many municipal buildings, Premier Rachel Notley said Monday after touring the city.

. . . .

“This city will emerge from this emergency with real structural resiliency and most of its critical infrastructure saved,” she said.
This tornado video is absolutely incredible from yesterday. By far one of the best tornado videos I've ever seen due to the close up view of the horizontal debris movement .

Link



Test
Test
Unfortunately the "billion dollar weather events list" is meaningless without the list including prior historic weather events with the dollar value present-worthed to today.
What will be, the last Fort McMurray update. Fire perimeter and hot spots from the last 24 hours.




The image speaks for itself. Fire no longer an immediate threat to the city or the oilfields. Burning mainly in wild land east of the city. Overall 90% of the city's buildings remain. Excellent work of the firefighters!

Story: Doorbell-cam captures gripping footage of Fort McMurray firefighters at work
You Tube Video HERE

Aa well as others: Heroic measures praised during the Fort McMurray hospital evacuation

The Good, the not-so-good, and the interesting:
The Good: Despite 'ocean of fire' that raged around Fort McMurray, about 90 per cent of structures saved

Not-so-good News: Viral stomach bug breaks out among Fort McMurray wildfire evacuees at Northlands reception centre

The Interesting (good) news: Good news: wildfires deemed to no threat to Fort McMurray radioactive waste site (Wonder if many of those that live there/recently moved there were aware of this?).
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bjb7QtMEBUg
Absolutely incredible footage from the Wray, CO Tornado from last weekend. I guess personal safety was thrown out the window on this chase because they ran out of gas, but the video really is incredible.



Quoting 210. Sandy82579:



If you happen to expend a minimal amount of effort, and go to the NOAA site linked above, you could actually do that yourself!
In fact they even provide ways to display charts both unadjusted and adjusted for inflation. Wow!

214. bwi
Lots of smoke from the wildfires in Canada and Siberia, and forecast much higher than normal temps in the Arctic this week. Hopefully the smoke will stay put rather than darkening the ice. This year's weather has been very conducive to ice melt so far, and the ice and snow collects even more heat when it's dirty from smoke particles.


And of course, there are the intellectually challenged: Paula Simons: Dear Edmonton, what part of 'fire ban' do you not understand?

Edmonton has been operating under a complete fire ban since Thursday, May 5.
Since then, Edmonton Fire and Rescue has responded to 110 separate complaints about people burning in backyard fire pits.
That’s 110 people either too dim and oblivious to realize the entire city and province are under a total fire ban – or too selfish and smug to obey the ban. With scenes of the Fort McMurray devastation on every TV and screen, with the city full of evacuees, it’s hard to imagine just how disconnected or delusional you’d have to be, to think that this was a weekend for a bonfire or wiener roast.
. . . . . . . .
As of May 8, city fire crews had already responded to 217 outdoor grass and brush fires, including 68 in the last four days alone . . . . . It’s believed all the most recent fires were caused by people, whether accidentally or on purpose.
216. bwi
Dang
What is the secret to embedding a video into the blog? The normal method of embedding doesn't work.
Quoting 217. Sfloridacat5:

What is the secret to embedding a video into the blog? The normal method of embedding doesn't work.


I have no idea that is why I always link to them. And, half the time, I cannot "see" embedded videos due to settings on my browser
One has to convert the i-frame u tube code to the old embed code.. using this converter.

Quoting 212. 757surfer:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bjb7QtMEBUg
Absolutely incredible footage from the Wray, CO Tornado from last weekend. I guess personal safety was thrown out the window on this chase because they ran out of gas, but the video really is incredible.






That tornado maxed out as an EF2. The Dominator 2 or 3 (Reed Timmer's vehicle) could have handled that intercept. You would never want to try that in a normal vehicle.



Quoting 219. Patrap:

One has to convert the i-frame u tube code to the old embed code.. using this converter.




Thanks I'll look at that.
See if this will work. Remarkable destruction at the 1:00 mark. It worked! Thanks Patrap.




Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
I don't see anything in either one of them. I receive a "movie not loaded" but has to do with setting I have on my browser/computer disabling any flash content from playing. However, even when i disable the extension - I still can't play it. I am sure it is me and my settings, not you.
Population density is the key factor when evaluating severe weather loss. The strength of the storm is secondary.

Ps. The number of storms, secondary also to population density.
Quoting 218. daddyjames:



I have no idea that is why I always link to them. And, half the time, I cannot "see" embedded videos due to settings on my browser


See WU mail
This is a good link to embed videos.

https://www.tools4noobs.com/online_tools/youtube_ xhtml/

Nea created one and Robdahood has a good one.
Anyone know where to watch storm chasing live streams now that TVN is not broadcasting anymore? tia.
Quoting 228. Chapelhill:

Anyone know where to watch storm chasing live streams now that TVN is not broadcasting anymore? tia.


This is one site. Also local online news sources have some excellent chasers.

Link
Quoting 227. Grothar:

This is a good link to embed videos.

https://www.tools4noobs.com/online_tools/youtube_ xhtml/

Nea created one and Robdahood has a good one.


Thanks Gro. Really wish thy would have a little indicator to show that you have a message.
Hope all is well with you and yours!
And I still insist that that was a hummingbird ;)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Linking youtube vids might work best these days. If you do not use flash and/or have wiped it off your computer, you don't need flash to view vids at the youtube site.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 5m5 minutes ago
Two weeks of rain: Streak of consecutive days with rain hits 14 in DC

This reminds me of 2008 all over again with the first half of May basically be down right dreary and a washout.Then the second half came and it was a scorcher with 90 degree weather and some agencies are calling for a abrupt end to our current pattern.I guess we'll see...
Quoting 216. bwi:

Dang



If the GFS is an indicator of anything on the horizon then next 400 hours or so could really help accelerate that plunge if this forecast verifies.

The GFS shows little in the way of changes in positive heat anomalies that currently range from 5 to 15 degrees Celsius above the normal. These anomalies are forecast to persist and if anythign expand and intensify as the month progresses.

72 hours


138 hours


186 hours Borrow is warm


228 hours Arctic Ocean still receiving open onslaught of above freezing temperatures. Several degrees at that


336 hours Greenland finally sees some relief with cool anomalies on the north end of the island.


384 hours Much of the Arctic Ocean will see positive temperature anomalies of 3 to 8 degrees Celsius above the norm for the next 16 days. And that is a very conservative number. Probably higher than that.



Quoting 221. Sfloridacat5:



That tornado maxed out as an EF2. The Dominator 2 or 3 (Reed Timmer's vehicle) could have handled that intercept. You would never want to try that in a normal vehicle.




  That's pretty awesome that they have vehicles that can anchor out in those hairy conditions. I would still be nervous as hell sitting in there. also, thanks for the info on embedding. I was trying to figure that out myself

Quoting 233. Barefootontherocks:

Linking youtube vids might work best these days. If you do not use flash and/or have wiped it off your computer, you don't need flash to view vids at the youtube site.
Flash is dying, and, in many cases, dead. YouTube embedding works perfectly well; using one of the tools listed makes it a breeze to convert the new YouTube embed code for use here. For instance, my own:

1) Under the video you want on YouTube, click 'Share' then 'Embed'. Copy the embed code listed;

2) Go to http://iwantsomeproof.com/youtubeoldembedcoderize r.asp;

3) Paste that code into the top box;

4) Click the red 'Coderize!' button;

5) Highlight and copy the code that appears in the bottom box;

6) Paste that code as-is into the WU comment box.

And that's it...
238. JRRP7
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2 hHace 2 horas Lafayette, CA Ver traducción
SSTs in the far North and trop Atlantic have anomalously warmed over past month, while SSTs off E Coast have cooled.
239. vis0

Quoting 217. Sfloridacat5:

What is the secret to embedding a video into the blog? The normal method of embedding doesn't work.
Tried to post on my zilly blog a "HOW TO" which includes an embed code i made(7+yrs ago never failed) but as usual (on WxU)  all it (posting comment) did was raise my blood pressure and have me curse.

Received 3 errors, then WxU finally choked on my comment and kept it THOUGH its not showing up but tonite if all is well - no watches / warnings - visit this link (pg 9 of my zilly blog) and see if the last comment THERE is addresses to sfloridacat5.   Was posted or at least WxU did not send me an error message as (Reference #95.f9b31bb8.14629 yadda yadda yadda) 20 minutes ago, nothing showing up.