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Six more weeks of winter!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:27 PM GMT on February 02, 2010

Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. From the official web site of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, groundhog.org:

Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!

On Gobbler's Knob on this fabulous Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2010
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
Awoke to the call of President Bill Cooper
And greeted his handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths

After casting a joyful eye toward thousands of his faithful followers,
And a bright sky above me
Showed my shadow beside me.

Six more weeks of winter it will be.


How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

What the models say
The latest long-range runs of the ECMWF and GFS models show the jet stream following a typical El Niño winter configuration. A northern branch dipping down over the Northeast U.S. will bring seasonably cold temperatures to the eastern half of the country, with a compensating ridge of high pressure bringing milder temperatures to the Northwest U.S. (and the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, Canada). A second branch of the jet stream will be active across Southern California, Texas, and the Southeast U.S., bringing cooler and rainier weather than average. There are no indications that the jet stream will get "stuck" in a high-amplitude pattern that will bring long-lived record cold to any portion of the country, such as occurred over Florida in early January. At this point, I don't see any reason to disagree with Punxsutawney Phil's fearless forecast of a normal six more weeks of winter.


Figure 1. Departure of winter temperature from average for February. This is a very typical pattern for an El Niño winter. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Next post
My next post will be Wednesday, when I plan to talk about the status of this year's El Niño.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr.
One thing that always gets me about Groundhog day... either way, the same amount of time is left in Winter.
Just happened to get here almost first!
There are no indications that the jet stream will get "stuck" in a high-amplitude pattern that will bring long-lived record cold to any portion of the country, such as occurred over Florida in early January.
This is the best news yet.
One of my favorite movies is Bill Murray in Groundhog Day.
Thanks Dr. Masters for your take on the prognosticating rodent's weather forecasting skills.

Mil gracias, Dr. Masters! Buen dia para usted y todos. Hasta luego, mi gente, :).
Phil needs a boat here in C FL today, thanks Dr!
arvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvy

groundhog day (post #3) Link
Ok's
It is pouring in Central Florida today. Rainfall totals approaching an inch on the north side of Orlando.
Oh the weather outside is frightful
But the fire is so delightful
And since I have no place to go
Let it snow, let it snow, .....oh the heck with it!

Winter SUCKS!
I live in new england,telling me I have six more weeks of winter,is like telling me the sun is going to set this evening.
no snow for the winter olympics but 800million for securtiy
9. Why does it have to be Mexico? Why not Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Peru, Columbia, Panama, or Puerto Rico? They all speak Spanish, too.

Tolerance is a good thing, ya know.
I need extended warm weather golf therapy.
Quoting NEwxguy:
I live in new england,telling me I have six more weeks of winter,is like telling me the sun is going to set this evening.


lol. Hello, Captain Obvious?
Quoting Floridano:
Mil gracias, Dr. Masters! Buen dia para usted y todos. Hasta luego, mi gente, :).


Good old JFV.
Quoting jeffs713:
9. Why does it have to be Mexico? Why not Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Peru, Columbia, Panama, or Puerto Rico? They all speak Spanish, too.

Tolerance is a good thing, ya know.


It is JFV, no tolerance required.
Quoting niederwaldboy:


uhhhh, go back to Mexico please.


JFV is Cuban...
Another one on the list
Thanks Dr. M; looks like Lake O in Florida will be getting plenty of rain this winter/spring season to help manage possible drought issues come the Summer.
Quoting Floodman:


JFV is Cuban...


Pardon me? Thanks, Flood.
Quoting Floridano:


Pardon me? Thanks, Flood.


It was just an assumption based on things you;ve said...
Living somewhere that has a town cryer - surely that's Hear ye, hear ye? - Or even Oyez, oyez.....
SQUAWK!!!!!!

:)
AMY!!!!! TV STAR!!!!
not yet, Squawk....maybe...

:)



Happy Phil Day!!!!!
Jerry!

:)
Ahh, so six more weeks of crazy winter weather for the US. Here in the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex the SUN is finally breaking through the clouds, oh, for the first time in over a week.

The Texas ground hogs here in North Texas are using lifeboats and taking anti-depressants to deal with all the flooding rains and cloudy skies!
hey everyone!

Check out my blog!
Pick the team that you want to win the Super Bowl, then if they dont win, pledge $10 to Portlight! simple enough! Feel free to pledge more! thanks!
The Texas ground hogs here in North Texas are using lifeboats and taking anti-depressants to deal with all the flooding rains and cloudy skies!

send them to Calif for some herbs...it should be legal any day now....
Happy Groundhog's Day!

Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry!

:)


Amy!
So Jerry/Ron/Flood


you have a birthday tomorrow :P
Quoting tornadodude:
Happy Groundhog's Day!


whoa fatty.. this one sort of epitomizes the 'hog' in groundhog :)
that's what living in a protected habitat will do to you! no one to run from :P
Quoting tornadodude:
So Jerry/Ron/Flood


you have a birthday tomorrow :P


Thanks Tdude/TornadoDude/Matt! LOL
that's not fat...he's all muscle...Phil is an Ultimate Fighting Champion....


that groundhog did what?!?
Quoting Floodman:


Thanks Tdude/TornadoDude/Matt! LOL


LOL anytime
Super Bowl weather looks gorgeous:

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Quoting NRAamy:
that's not fat...he's all muscle...Phil is an Ultimate Fighting Champion....

not sure how to post a pic, but check this one out Amy :D http://static.open.salon.com/files/ground-hog-day1233584614.jpg

can someone tell Minne how to post a pic, 'cause I can't follow the link!
Quoting Minnemike:

not sure how to post a pic, but check this one out Amy :D http://static.open.salon.com/files/ground-hog-day1233584614.jpg




click on image, than in the box that pops up, paste the url into it. then click ok. then click ok again, and one more time :P
Quoting Minnemike:

not sure how to post a pic, but check this one out Amy :D http://static.open.salon.com/files/ground-hog-day1233584614.jpg

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

:)
doesn't go there when pasting address to browser? sorry to make it so manual Amy... hope you didn't paste the smile into the address :P
and Tdude.. i am lost by the instructions.
whilst clicking on the image, no box comes up.

http://static.open.salon.com/files/ground-hog-day1233584614.jpg
try manually again? hopefully worth the rigmarole...
Quoting Minnemike:
doesn't go there when pasting address to browser? sorry to make it so manual Amy... hope you didn't paste the smile into the address :P
and Tdude.. i am lost by the instructions.
whilst clicking on the image, no box comes up.

http://static.open.salon.com/files/ground-hog-day1233584614.jpg
try manually again? hopefully worth the rigmarole...


sorry, I should have made it clearer. there is a box right above where you type on the comments on this blog that says image, click on it. when a box pops up, paste the url of the image you want to post in the box. click ok. then click ok for the next 2 boxes
oh, thanks Keeper!! only a half fail on my behalf..
Quoting tornadodude:


sorry, I should have made it clearer. there is a box right above where you type on the comments on this blog that says image, click on it. when a box pops up, paste the url of the image you want to post in the box. click ok. then click ok for the next 2 boxes

thanks again T-dude.. makes perfect sense now. hopefully you'll not regret enlightening me.
Good grief!! That is one porker of a whistle pig.

Has anyone checked out this new national RADAR from NWS? It really is kinda cool. Offers some of the same stuff as our WUnderMap.
thats ok thats a fat rat
Quoting tornadodude:
Super Bowl weather looks gorgeous:

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Wow. perfect weather.

WHO DAT!
http://www.livescience.com/environment/top10_global_warming_results.html

Recent discoveries reveal the possibility that long-dormant ground hogs could re-emerge, thawing along with the tundra.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That's not a ground hog (I like whistlepig, myself)! That's a prairie dog with a thyroid problem!
I broke the blog!
where's Billy Mays with the Magic Putty!!!!
Quoting Floodman:


That's not a ground hog (I like whistlepig, myself)! That's a prairie dog with a thyroid problem!

is it really?
out of curiosity, i had typed groundhog in a google images search, and this fella was on the first page. my goal was to gauge a common size to benefit my own knowledge, but that girth could not go without sharing.. if a p-dog, i blame google images.. though i may have shifted to a 3/4ths fail now
Quoting NRAamy:
where's Billy Mays with the Magic Putty!!!!


Amys gonna be a tv star!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GB....nah....maybe, and it's a big maybe, I'll get to participate in an experiment on TV....

:)
I can't think of anyone better to be on that show than you Amy. You're gonna showw them what little girls are made of, Gunpowder and Lead.
hahahahahahaha! well, I hope so...we shall see....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

OMG, that groundhog needs to go on a diet. He needs to stay away from the California herb gardens.
A solid 1 to 2" rain across most of East Central FL the last 36 hours. Next round comes Friday afternoon and this could be severe.
Quoting NRAamy:
The Texas ground hogs here in North Texas are using lifeboats and taking anti-depressants to deal with all the flooding rains and cloudy skies!

send them to Calif for some herbs...it should be legal any day now....


No, the ground hogs are out in their boats playing the banjo, singing happy songs that the sun is returning. And I think that they made a run on Lowe's and Home Depot, buying out all their sump pumps :0)!


Almost gone... Sun is out here in St. Petersburg, FL.
Quoting Minnemike:

is it really?
out of curiosity, i had typed groundhog in a google images search, and this fella was on the first page. my goal was to gauge a common size to benefit my own knowledge, but that girth could not go without sharing.. if a p-dog, i blame google images.. though i may have shifted to a 3/4ths fail now


I'm a country boy from central Missouri and I can tell you that groundhogs (whistlepigs...LMAO) are generally a deep brown to a chestnut color...I'm sorry, I have to whistlepig again...LOL
Quoting StormChaser81:


Almost gone... Sun is out here in St. Petersburg, FL.


This is the first time the sun has been out in Orlando since Friday. Everything is beginning to green back up after all the heavy rain as of late. 5.65" where I live since 1/1/10. Way above average for this time of year. You would think this is our rainy season.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Almost gone... Sun is out here in St. Petersburg, FL.


A nice area of thunderstorms about 70 miles to your south.
we've got more rain on the forecast for Friday and Saturday....
Hey, all! Stinkin' groundhog...if I knew how to shoot a gun, I'd hunt the little sucker down. Six more weeks of winter - BLECH!!! Hey, Amy - maybe you could help me out with that? :)

So, I finally posted a new blog...please stop by when you get a minute:

"And a little child shall lead you..."

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

:)
So AMY, What is all this about you being on TV. Where? When? What Program?
Quoting Floodman:


That's not a ground hog (I like whistlepig, myself)! That's a prairie dog with a thyroid problem!


He just has big bones...
Remember to check out my blog and pick who you think will win the Super Bowl! if your team loses, then you pledge $10 to Portlight!

(or more) :)
jim baker is now on the 2012 bandwagon they are selling 5 gallon buckets of food stuffs so we can be prepared
Well, the predicted dusting to 1 inch has suddenly become 6 inches for No Virginia. I haven't noticed my (2) cats running around like the midnight train is chasing them which is usually a sure sign that a big storm is brewing for my area. When the Holiday Blizzard was gathering, I thought they were going to chew each other to bits; they are normally quite friendly to each other.

I know this is all very unscientific, but I add my observations of the natural world to what the weatherman puts out (and draw my own conclusions). The cat "show" takes place around 24-48 hours before significant storms come along and is generally quite accurate. I suppose I could have missed this "show" while out of the house (have to work, commute, etc at some point).

Anyway, it's my two cents worth of observation.

**oh my aching snow shovel and more is coming on the weekend.....sigh**
Quoting leftovers:
jim baker is now on the 2012 bandwagon they are selling 5 gallon buckets of food stuffs so we can be prepared


I take it he doesn't believe he's going to be saved?

this is coming wow lots of rain :o
I thought Jim Baker was dead...married to Tammy Faye, right?
Quoting btwntx08:

this is coming wow lots of rain :o


Well btwntx08, you folks really need that rain, hopefully you do not have any flash flooding problems..
Quoting TampaTom:


He just has big bones...


We had a customer bring a pet ground hog to our fast food drive-thru today. Not only did he NOT see his shadow here in WV this morning, but he celebrated with a handfull of fries. Maybe that's what happened to the little guy in the picture :)
Big-boned, french-fry-eating prairie dogs masquerading as whistlepigs...it's been a very interesting day!
Perhaps I should have said "whimsical"
Quoting Floodman:
Big-boned, french-fry-eating prairie dogs masquerading as whistlepigs...it's been a very interesting day!

Hey Ron, Happy Groundhog's Day. Below is a snap-shot of what we may be looking at for next Mo and Tu 2-8 and 2-9:

WE WILL HAVE A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. THE
GFS IS MUCH MUCH COLDER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THIS SYSTEM. HAVE DONE
A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IF THE COLDER GFS VERIFIES...MOST
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOME SNOW STARTING MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hey Ron, Happy Groundhog's Day. Below is a snap-shot of what we may be looking at for next Mo and Tu 2-8 and 2-9:

WE WILL HAVE A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. THE
GFS IS MUCH MUCH COLDER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THIS SYSTEM. HAVE DONE
A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IF THE COLDER GFS VERIFIES...MOST
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOME SNOW STARTING MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.


OUTSTANDING! I ordered snow for my birthday but a little late is better than never! Bord, bearer of good tidings indeed!

89. IKE
Check out the cold-air diving into the central and eastern USA on the 12Z ECMWF.
Heres a pic of the subtropical storm from yesterday that will never be named, like the rest of them (Grace being a rare exception).
Note the clearly defined COC and outflow at the beginning, before shear takes hold.

Link
Quoting winter123:
Heres a pic of the subtropical storm from yesterday that will never be named, like the rest of them (Grace being a rare exception).
Note the clearly defined COC and outflow at the beginning, before shear takes hold.

Link

Personally, I don't think it had enough convection around the center to be an STS.
Amazing how long we can carry on a blog about groundhogs,whistlepigs,gophers,prairie dogs,whatever you want to call them,Oh the slow months of winter!!!!
Groundhog Decade: We’re stuck in a bad movie, where it’s always the hottest decade on record

Somewhere on a Hollywood movie set for Groundhog Day, Part 2: Bill Murray wakes up to find he’s just lived through the hottest decade on record, just as he did in the 1990s, just as he did in the 1980s. And he keeps waking up in the hottest decade on record, until he gains the kind of maturity and wisdom that can only come from doing the same damn thing over and over and over again with no change in the result. Ah, if only life were like a movie.

Somewhere in PA: Punxsutawney Phil saw the shadow of unrestricted fossil-fuel pollution from Homo “sapiens” sapiens today. That means global warming for another six thousand weeks — and then some (see NOAA stunner: Climate change “largely irreversible for 1000 years,” with permanent Dust Bowls in Southwest and around the globe).

If we keep listening to the siren song of delay, delay, delay from the anti-science crowd, then eventually people aren’t going to go through this elaborate charade of wondering whether some large rodent in Pennsylvania can predict the weather — the forecast will always be the same, “bloody hot”:

* M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming projection to 10°F — with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of 20°F
* Hadley Center: “Catastrophic” 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path
* Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year — and that isn’t the worst case, it’s business as usual!”

And, as noted, those scientific projections are simply business-as-usual warming.

Under the plausible worst-case scenario of high emissions, high carbon-cycle feedbacks, marmota monax and homo “sapiens” experience much worse by mid-century (see UK Met Office: Catastrophic climate change, 13-18°F over most of U.S. and 27°F in the Arctic, could happen in 50 years, but “we do have time to stop it if we cut greenhouse gas emissions soon”)

Read Full Article
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/02/groundhogs-day-movie-global-warming-where-its-always-the-hott est-decade-on-record/
Quoting btwntx08:

this is coming wow lots of rain :o

Most of the SREFs are are actually calling for an areawide average of ~4 inches with the upcoming storm, with a few calling for as much as twice as much.

Que bola, todos?
Quoting Floridano:
Que bola, todos?


que bola:

Cuban slang for what's up
Quoting tornadodude:


que bola:

Cuban slang for what's up


I'm pretty sure thats JFV.
Quoting tornadodude:


que bola:

Cuban slang for what's up


Hi,

How did you know that, Matt?
Quoting Floridano:


Hi,

How did you know that, Matt?


google lol
Quoting Floridano:
Que bola, todos?
how ya doing good old bud sir

The storm South of Ft. Myers and north of Naples is showing slight rotation on radar.
Germany run out of street salt.



Many buildings could collapse from the snow weight.


Some parts (islands) are inaccesable.
So I was right earlier on all counts...LOL

Easy to figure out who he is; the nationality was a little more difficult, though TD hit the same thing I did: his Spanish idiom is particular to Cuba...
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Most of the SREFs are are actually calling for an areawide average of ~4 inches with the upcoming storm, with a few calling for as much as twice as much.


woah i needto watch it then :o
Quoting StormChaser81:

The storm South of Ft. Myers and north of Naples is showing slight rotation on radar.


A lot of heat and humidity south of those storms. I'm becoming interested in the storm set-up come Friday afternoon in Central FL. It appears that a nasty squall line is going to plow into W C FL late in the day. Temps on Friday will get into the 80's especially if we can get some sun. Also, turning of winds from surface to aloft COULD spell trouble.
hmmm the nws is not responding says error idk why : /
Quoting Floodman:
So I was right earlier on all counts...LOL

Easy to figure out who he is; the nationality was a little more difficult, though TD hit the same thing I did: his Spanish idiom is particular to Cuba...


Hes been found, im surprised he stayed in hidden and didnt show his true color till now.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Was just coming here to post there is a few small severe cells moving across the state.
They'll maintain or intensify as they move across. First one should be moving into Western PBC suburbs in about 20 minutes.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Was just coming here to post there is a few small severe cells moving across the state.


84 in Miami with dewpoints near 70. Plenty of fuel down there. Had very heavy rain in Orlando this morning. Visibility at my work was a 1/2 mile at times.
here ya go Aim:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2010

DCZ001-MDZ009-013-VAZ030-031-040-042-050>054-501-502-WVZ053-
030445-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.100202T2100Z-100203T1200Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-WARREN-CLARKE-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...
FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...
FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...CHARLES TOWN
335 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING THROUGH 6 PM...ENDING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM 10 PM TO 4 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 30S LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING DURING DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...EAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

Quoting Jeff9641:


84 in Miami with dewpoints near 70. Plenty of fuel down there. Had very heavy rain in Orlando this morning. Visibility at my work was a 1/2 mile at times.


Been a while since I heard thunder, spring is near.
It looks like HPC is following the SREF average very closely.


Quoting tornadodude:


google lol

That's when you're supposed to say what a genius you are. :P
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Germany run out of street salt.



Many buildings could collapse from the snow weight.


Some parts (islands) are inaccesable.


Is all this north or down in Hessen too?
Quoting Floodman:
Perhaps I should have said "whimsical"


You've been watching HGTV. LOL
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Been a while since I heard thunder, spring is near.


I've been noticing more and more lightning as these systems came across over the last month. Thunderstorms will encompass most of the penisula late Friday. Heating of the day should really increase the surface instablity.
Quoting PcolaDan:


You've been watching HGTV. LOL


No, "whimsical" is actually a part of my vocabulary; not a word I use very often, but with whistlepigs and obese priarie dogs today, I would have to say this blog has become somewhat whimsical...
Quoting Floodman:


No, "whimsical" is actually a part of my vocabulary; not a word I use very often, but with whistlepigs and obese priarie dogs today, I would have to say this blog has become somewhat whimsical...

I have to agree here...
Quoting tornadodude:
here ya go Aim:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2010

DCZ001-MDZ009-013-VAZ030-031-040-042-050>054-501-502-WVZ053-
030445-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.100202T2100Z-100203T1200Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-WARREN-CLARKE-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...
FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...
FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...CHARLES TOWN
335 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING THROUGH 6 PM...ENDING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM 10 PM TO 4 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 30S LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING DURING DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...EAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

&&



Hey TD you never commented on my new blog!!!!
so I went to Urban Dictionary to see what their definition of whimsical was, and I saw this instead-

Evasive Mumbling:

Mumbling the answer to a question in hopes that the questioner won't hear or understand an answer that may get you in trouble.

When mom asks about that broken plate, you better answer with some evasive mumbling.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Amazing how long we can carry on a blog about groundhogs,whistlepigs,gophers,prairie dogs,whatever you want to call them,Oh the slow months of winter!!!!

Was entertaining, but then a sudden post on AGW. Somewhat like farting in a tent....
Quoting atmoaggie:

Was entertaining, but then a sudden post on AGW. Somewhat like farting in a tent....


Hey atmoaggie, care to comment on my blog?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Was entertaining, but then a sudden post on AGW. Somewhat like farting in a tent....


yeh,and the same result,everyone leaves the tent
Quoting Grothar:


Hey TD you never commented on my new blog!!!!


donezo
Quoting tornadodude:


donezo


Hey, I worked on that for days. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I worked on that for days. LOL



it would take me weeks to translate it lol


you didnt comment on mine either :P
Since you guys are ment to be getting 6 more weeks of winter, does that mean were going to get 6 more weeks of summer?
Quoting PcolaDan:


Is all this north or down in Hessen too?
I don't know.
Best you check weatherunderground german weather map

The article with google translation
http://translate.google.de/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Fpanorama%2F0%2C1518%2C675503%2 C00.html&sl=de&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8
Quoting AussieStorm:
Since you guys are ment to be getting 6 more weeks of winter, does that mean were going to get 6 more weeks of summer?


Of course, summer has to stay somewhere.
132. xcool
Six more weeks of winter! YEAH OK
133. xcool
NOT HERE IN NEW ORLEANS .
Quoting xcool:
Six more weeks of winter! YEAH OK

Maybe we can be lucky if it is only 6 weeks ...
6 more weeks only takes me into the middle of March,I'll take that,thats a short winter for me.
Winter? what's that?

;)
Quoting NRAamy:
Winter? what's that?

;)


Throws a snowball!!!!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I worked on that for days. LOL


Grothar!!!!!
Quoting tornadodude:



it would take me weeks to translate it lol


you didnt comment on mine either :P

Google toolbar can do the translation okay...

Gro never said anything about my blog, either, even after a number of prods to do so. And I thought he might actually enjoy it, given that most of it was written by a literary master, and all.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Google toolbar can do the translation okay...

Gro never said anything about my blog, either, even after a number of prods to do so. And I thought he might actually enjoy it, given that most of it was written by a literary master, and all.


Is that touch or touché?
Quoting caneswatch:


Grothar!!!!!



CANES!!!!!
Quoting NEwxguy:


Throws a snowball!!!!


That deserved a slush ball!
Quoting Grothar:


Is that touch or touché?

Okay, I was commenting in there, and then all of a sudden, "This entry has been removed". If you lost my post, I am gonna be mad...you are going to have to buy me a beer in Miami next week.
Spring has already started in Central and South Florida. Average high in orlando in 2 weeks goes up to 77.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I worked on that for days. LOL


When I go to your blog, all I see is a blank space with 4 photos on the right hand side. Not even any comments!

Is there a secret password?
Quoting Grothar:



CANES!!!!!


Mind going on chat? Got something for ya!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I worked on that for days.


yes, and I worked on that Big Bird story for a full 30 seconds, with no response from you...you don't hear me whining about it.....suck it up...
It's been raining since yesterday morning here. Needless to say it really soggy outside.
Quoting NRAamy:
Winter? what's that?

;)


Something you experienced last week. For the majority of us, its that real cold, nasty, snowy, sleety, rainy time of the year.

Here in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX, it means we can experience winter, late spring or mid fall weather on any given day. And every few years or so, we have summer like temps too!
Quoting NRAamy:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I worked on that for days.


yes, and I worked on that Big Bird story for a full 30 seconds, with no response from you...you don't hear me whining about it.....suck it up...

love it! i'm gonna spend 45 seconds working out my own Big Bird story tonight... i'll have a new blog up tomorrow, comments needed!
for on-topic discussion: i am also looking forward to winter wrapping up in 6 weeks, ahead of MN schedule..
Quoting 1900hurricane:
It looks like HPC is following the SREF average very closely.




Great, let me see if I can find a cheap boat or a big inflatable raft on Craig's list.

The GFS models are indicating Dallas-Ft Worth, TX may see snow next Mo or Tu, 2/8-9. The NWS DFW office mentioned that this morning in the area forecast discussion. The ECMWF shows a rain event and GFS shows a snowstorm.

The preliminary climate figures for 1-10 for the DFW, TX area showed we were 0.2F above normal, with temps ranging from a low of 13 to a high of 76. God Texas weather is NEVER boring!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Something you experienced last week. For the majority of us, its that real cold, nasty, snowy, sleety, rainy time of the year.

Here in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX, it means we can experience winter, late spring or mid fall weather on any given day. And every few years or so, we have summer like temps too!

In Houston, our motto from late november to late february is "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."
Quoting Jeff9641:
Spring has already started in Central and South Florida. Average high in orlando in 2 weeks goes up to 77.
well lets not warm up too fast
Quoting Bordonaro:


Great, let me see if I can find a cheap boat or a big inflatable raft on Craig's list.

The GFS models are indicating Dallas-Ft Worth, TX may see snow next Mo or Tu, 2/8-9. The NWS DFW office mentioned that this morning in the area forecast discussion. The ECMWF shows a rain event and GFS shows a snowstorm.

The preliminary climate figures for 1-10 for the DFW, TX area showed we were 0.2F above normal, with temps ranging from a low of 13 to a high of 76. God Texas weather is NEVER boring!

Quoting jeffs713:

In Houston, our motto from late november to late february is "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."


Yes that is a famous Texas expression and is used quite a bit in Western NY state, near Buffalo, Rochester to near Watertown, NY.

In Buffalo, NY during a lake-effect snow event, you can drive 10 miles and go from sunny and 25F, into a raging snowstorm.
I find this Ground hog day thing funny, He saw his shadow, meaning it was daytime.... don't most people see there shadow in the daytime?

How come there is no ground hog day in August, to say if there is going to be or not, 6 weeks more of summer?
155. KOG, gosh man I love you like a brother from a different mother, do you have to rub it in? Well, today, after 5 days the sun is out and we hit 54F/12C, still below normal.

That 60-76F/15-24C spell we had for about 2 weeks spoiled me rotten. We hit 79F/26C one day last month, at the Arlington, TX Municipal AP, an official reading
Quoting jeffs713:

In Houston, our motto from late november to late february is "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."

They say the same thing in Melbourne :-)
Quoting jeffs713:

In Houston, our motto from late november to late february is "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."

I usually call this time of year "Fring"...a freaky fall spring transitional hybrid season...
Quoting atmoaggie:

I usually call this time of year "Fring"...a freaky fall spring transitional hybrid season...


That is cool, I never quite heard put quite like that. I just wanna fast forward to Apr 1, so it will be near 70F during the average afternoon.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I find the Ground hog day thing funny, He saw his shadow, meaning it was daytime.... don't most people see there shadow in the daytime?

How come there is no ground hog day in August, to say if there is going to be or not, 6 weeks more of summer?
sunny morning cold sees shadow gets scared runs back into he's hole for more sleep 6 more weeks of winter
cloudy morning mild sees no shadow stays out of hole starts to look around for some food wakes up from sleep winter is over

kinda a funny folk tale but been around for generations and may possibly be just a tricky way to get people out for a mid winter gathering and money spending event during the dead of winter
Quoting Bordonaro:


That is cool, I never quite heard put quite like that. I just wanna fast forward to Apr 1, so it will be near 70F during the average afternoon.

Can i put my summer on hold, i'm loving it. Oh, wait, if i did that, it would be winter on hold there. oh well, thems the breaks. hehe
Quoting AussieStorm:

Can i put my summer on hold, i'm loving it. Oh, wait, if i did that, it would be winter on hold there. oh well, thems the breaks. hehe

If you do that, I need to take regular trips to the Rio Grande Valley here in TX, where mid winter temps range from 51/70F or 10/21C..
Sydney finally receives a good splash


After weeks of little to no rain Sydney and surrounds have finally got the splash so anticipated, with more to come, according to weathezone.com.au.

Some of heaviest falls came last night just after the average child's bed-time. The city recorded 7 millimetres in less than an hour, not enough to be classified as flash flooding, but still good enough. The total to 9am was 23 millimetres, the wettest in two months.

Lucas Heights received 29 millimetres to 9am this morning, the best since October of last year.

North Rocks picked up 25 millimetres, the wettest day since the end of December.

The dams have fared reasonably okay as well. An average of 20 millimetres fell over the Warragamba, which is sitting at 51 percent capacity. Whilst this is clearly not enough to bring us back to a "full tank" it is still very welcome.

Sydney will continue to see frequent showers today, although they'll ease a little during the afternoon. Showers should continue over the weekend as well, with some thunder thrown into the mix.

- Weatherzone
Community spirits soar in Qld's soaked outback

There is still rain falling in parts of outback Queensland this morning as the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Olga moves into South Australia and weakens.

Remote cattle stations in the state's far south-west have recorded some of their biggest rainfall in decades.

There has been steady falls overnight in the state's Channel country.

In Queensland's central-west, Blackall-Tambo Mayor Jan Ross says spirits have been boosted and community morale is as high as it has been in decades.

"The weight of drought will be lifted off their shoulders - we were feeding right up until Christmas," she said.

"The pressure of that and the cost of it is enormous.

"The cost to your health and the bank balance is relieved by this wonderful wonderful rain."

Catherine Rothwell, from Naryilco Station in south-west Queensland, says they have had 100 millimetres in the last four days.

"This sort of rain I can't really remember since I was a little girl - nice, steady, soaking rain," she said.

"It'll be really good for the country because it hasn't actually just poured down and rushed - it'll soak right right in and grow some really good feed - it'll just be a really nice change to red dirt."

In central Queensland, some roads are blocked and some residents are receiving food drops as floodwaters continue to isolate some parts of the Bundaberg region.

Police are appealing for motorists to take care as floodwaters have cut the road between Bundaberg and Agnes Water.

The Essendean Bridge at Rosedale is about a metre under water from the flooded Baffle Creek.

The State Emergency Service (SES) has delivered supplies to about 15 residents on Fingerboard Road, near Miriam Vale who are isolated by floodwaters.

Police are urging residents to stay away from swollen waterways because the conditions can change quickly.

The weather bureau says this week's rain in central Queensland should not cause major flooding in the Fitzroy River.

A flood warning is current for the Connors, Lower Isaac and Dawson Rivers and Baffle Creek.

Forecaster Mike Marrinan says there will be some rises in the Fitzroy River but it should remain below flood levels.

"We do have major flooding occurring along parts of the Fitzroy or tributaries of the Fitzroy, along the Commet River from Rolleston to the Lake and moderate to minor flooding occurring also in the Upper Dawson River, Taroom area," he said.

"We've had moderate flooding which has peaked in the Connors River and the Pink Lagoon area, moderate flooding continues in the lower Isaacs River."

Meanwhile, AgForce president John Cotter says the drenching rain will have far-reaching benefits for the state's primary producers.

The system has brought drought-breaking falls to a number of areas and filled creeks, dams and weirs.

Queensland's largest dam is overflowing.

Run-off from heavy falls across north Queensland have boosted the Burdekin Falls Dam, south of Townsville.

Sunwater estimates an extra 125,000 megalitres of water will run into the dam today.

Mr Cotter says there will be benefits right across the rural sector and the Queensland Government also has reason to celebrate.

"When you have a $13 billion contribution to the state economy - if we see a 5 or 10 per cent increase in production that is really cream on the top," he said.

"Certainly the State Government will be very pleased to see it because people will be out there looking to develop their businesses and that all flows back to the jobs the regional communities and the general economy."

"We are looking at one of the best breaks in a season we have seen in over a decade.

"Central Queensland for instance has got the potential for a good sorghum crop to be planted now.

"The beef industry will see better weights in cattle.

"The transport sector gets more work and use and some of the investment in machinery and livestock facilities will reap the benefits."
- Reporting by Chrissy Arthur, Kallee Buchanan, Maria Hatzakis, Penny Timms and Francis Tapim

- ABC
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sydney finally receives a good splash


After weeks of little to no rain Sydney and surrounds have finally got the splash so anticipated, with more to come, according to weathezone.com.au.

Some of heaviest falls came last night just after the average child's bed-time. The city recorded 7 millimetres in less than an hour, not enough to be classified as flash flooding, but still good enough. The total to 9am was 23 millimetres, the wettest in two months.

Lucas Heights received 29 millimetres to 9am this morning, the best since October of last year.

North Rocks picked up 25 millimetres, the wettest day since the end of December.

The dams have fared reasonably okay as well. An average of 20 millimetres fell over the Warragamba, which is sitting at 51 percent capacity. Whilst this is clearly not enough to bring us back to a "full tank" it is still very welcome.

Sydney will continue to see frequent showers today, although they'll ease a little during the afternoon. Showers should continue over the weekend as well, with some thunder thrown into the mix.

- Weatherzone


We had 3.40"/86.36mm of rain in 36 hours here in Arlington, TX last Th and Fr, with another 1-2"/25-51mm coming tomorrow into Th.
Quoting Bordonaro:


That is cool, I never quite heard put quite like that. I just wanna fast forward to Apr 1, so it will be near 70F during the average afternoon.

Well, when you have 10.5 months of summer every year, it is hard to squeeze Fall, Winter, and Spring into only about 45 days.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, when you have 10.5 months of summer every year, it is hard to squeeze Fall, Winter, and Spring into only about 45 days.


Well here in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX summer starts May 15 and ends around Oct 10 each year. We are fortunate, we have a cooler climate than NOLA, about 4F cooler.
170. IKE
From Mobile,AL. afternoon discussion....

"THE BIG CHALLENGE AND QUESTION REMAINS. HOW MUCH RAIN WILL LOCAL
GAUGES COLLECT? THE VARIOUS SPECTRAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH IN A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE LOW PASSAGES...DIFFER ON RAIN
AMOUNTS. THE 02.12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WRINGS OUT STORM TOTAL RAINS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 ENDING FRIDAY AT 6 PM. THE
EURO SUGGESTS 2 TO 3 INCHES TO FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WHILE THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF) AND CANADIAN
GEM GUIDANCE CALL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL EPISODE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/JET DYNAMICS...MESOSCALE CONTRIBUTIONS TO POOLING
AND LIFTING OF HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE APPROACHING LOW...AND
TRAINING OF CELLS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
AREAS OBSERVING AMOUNTS DOUBLED WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY
CALLS FOR.
WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN EVENTS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST COUPLE
MONTHS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RUNOFF AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOWER LYING AREAS...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS
AND UNDERPASSES. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING RIVER RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL
RAIN AMOUNTS AS POTENTIAL EXISTS OF ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING. STAY
TUNED."

Thanks to the RA, who finally put TDude back in his dorm room.
Quoting NRAamy:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I worked on that for days.


yes, and I worked on that Big Bird story for a full 30 seconds, with no response from you...you don't hear me whining about it.....suck it up...


Hey, I left you a message on the "other" blog, with a full apology. See how you conservatives are, all ready to pounce on an innocent person. LOL Go back and read it, it was funny.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Okay, I was commenting in there, and then all of a sudden, "This entry has been removed". If you lost my post, I am gonna be mad...you are going to have to buy me a beer in Miami next week.


But you will have to drive yourself from the airport.
Quoting Bordonaro:


We had 3.40"/86.36mm of rain in 36 hours here in Arlington, TX last Th and Fr, with another 1-2"/25-51mm coming tomorrow into Th.

We are the 2nd driest continent on earth, when we get rain, we love it.
OK, just to clarify for a few people. I had posted part of a paper on GW which was entirely in German. It was only to get a laugh from a few people, not for the entire blog. I removed it myself. I don't really put anything on my own blog, because you all know how sensitive I am. If I posted something and got a negative response, I would nevber be able to show myself on the blog again. I don't want to miss this years coming tropical season. I often write explanations to people in different languages as you know, but always in WU email. Sometimes things are said on the blog which they do not understand and I try to help them out.
“A new model for mass extinctions at the end of the Permian period 251 million years ago and the end Triassic 50 million years later explains how intense global warming could trigger deaths in the sea and on land. Trouble begins with widespread volcanic activity that releases enormous volumes of carbon dioxide and methane (1). The gases cause rapid global warming (2). A warmer ocean absorbs less oxygen from the atmosphere (3). Low oxygen (anoxia) destabilizes the chemocline, where oxygenated water meets water permeated with hydrogen sulfi de (H2S) generated by bottom-dwelling anaerobic bacteria (4). As H2S concentrations build and oxygen falls, the chemocline rises abruptly to the ocean surface (5). Green and purple photosynthesizing sulfur bacteria, which consume H2S and normally live at chemocline depth, now inhabit the H2S-rich surface waters while oxygen-breathing ocean life suffocates (6). H2S also diffuses into the air, killing animals and plants on land (7) and rising to the troposphere to attack the planet’s ozone layer (8). Without the ozone shield, the sun’s ultraviolet (UV) radiation kills remaining life (9).” Scientific American October 2006 Peter M Ward Impact from the Deep
Sometimes things are said on the blog which they do not understand

dude, that's my life story!!!

;)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST TUE 02 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
FLIGHT ONE
A. A66/ DROP 7/ 05/0000Z
B. CLOCKWISE
FLIGHT TWO
A. A65/ DROP 6/ 05/1200Z
B. CLOCKWISE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. P21/ 40.0N 135.0W / 04/1200Z
B. AFXXX 15WSC TRACK21
C. 04/0600Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 04/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. TRACK P15/ 41.0N 162.0W/ 05/1200Z
B. POSSIBLE WC-130 TRACK ONLY.
JWP
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are the 2nd driest continent on earth, when we get rain, we love it.



Quoting NRAamy:
Sometimes things are said on the blog which they do not understand

dude, that's my life story!!!

;)


We know, but love you anyway!! See my apology I left for you this morning?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Could you post the link to those maps please
Groth....yes...but....

not one person commented on my Big Bird story.....


:(
I wonder if flash floods have any positive effects.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
I wonder if flash floods have any positive effects.

I would think they would have a positive effect of flushing out a lot of built up debris.
AussieStorm -- please post some pics of the Outback in full bloom once the rain stops. Nothing prettier than a typically arid region when it gets a rare rain and everything springs to life!
Quoting Grothar:
OK, just to clarify for a few people. I had posted part of a paper on GW which was entirely in German. It was only to get a laugh from a few people, not for the entire blog. I removed it myself. I don't really put anything on my own blog, because you all know how sensitive I am. If I posted something and got a negative response, I would nevber be able to show myself on the blog again. I don't want to miss this years coming tropical season. I often write explanations to people in different languages as you know, but always in WU email. Sometimes things are said on the blog which they do not understand and I try to help them out.


But Grothar, I wrote a response, in German, wothout a net and I thought I'd done rather well...I was hoping you'd comment on that!
Quoting WunderFul:
AussieStorm -- please post some pics of the Outback in full bloom once the rain stops. Nothing prettier than a typically arid region when it gets a rare rain and everything springs to life!

Will try to get pics for everyone.

Hey Flood!

Quoting Floodman:


But Grothar, I wrote a response, in German, wothout a net and I thought I'd done rather well...I was hoping you'd comment on that!
LOl what is going on with all this german stuff here, i apparently missed it ;)
Duck walks into a pub and orders a schooner of beer and a ham sandwich.

The barman looks at him and says, "But you're a duck".

"I see your eyes are working", replies the duck.

"And you talk!" exclaims the barman.

"I see your ears are working", says the duck,

"Now can I have my beer and my sandwich please?"

"Certainly", says the barman, "sorry about that, it's just we
don't get many ducks in this pub. What are you doing round this way?".

"I'm working on the building site across the road", explains the duck.

Then the duck drinks his beer, eats his sandwich and leaves.

This continues for 2 weeks. Then one day the circus comes to
town.The Ringleader of the circus comes into the pub and the barman says to
him, "You're with the circus aren't you?, I know this duck that would be
just brilliant in your circus, he talks, drinks beer and everything!".

"Sounds marvellous", says the ringleader, "get him to give me a call".

So the next day when the duck comes into the pub the barman
says, "Hey Mr Duck, I reckon I can line you up with a top job, paying
really
good money!"

"Yeah?", says the duck, "Sounds great, where is it?"

"At the circus", says the barman.

"The circus?" the duck enquires.

"That's right", replies the barman.

"The circus?" the duck asks again.

"Yes" says the barman

"That place with the big tent?" the duck enquires.

"Yeah" the barman replies.

"With all the animals?" the duck questioned.

"Of Course" the barman replies.

"With the big canvas roof with the hole in the middle", asks the duck.

"That's right!" says the barman.

The duck looks confused.

"What would they want with a plasterer?


Quoting AussieStorm:

Will try to get pics for everyone.

Hey Flood!


Hey, Aussie! What is it, 8 AM or so on the 3rd for you?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Well here in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX summer starts May 15 and ends around Oct 10 each year. We are fortunate, we have a cooler climate than NOLA, about 4F cooler.


It's not the temp, brother, it's the humidity...95F at 30% humidity is nothing when you're used to 95F at 90% humidity
Quoting Floodman:


Hey, Aussie! What is it, 8 AM or so on the 3rd for you?

11:40am actually.
Will you be on the Barometer Bob show on Friday Afternoon(Thursday Night your time)?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

LOl what is going on with all this german stuff here, i apparently missed it ;)


I am a naturalized American citizen; I grew up speaking German and English at home. Grothar is an exceptionally intelligent indiviual who is also multi-lingual...he wrote a blog entry earlier today in German
Grothar is an exceptionally intelligent indiviual who is also multi-lingual

who also neglects to reply to Big Bird stories....
Quoting AussieStorm:

11:40am actually.
Will you be on the Barometer Bob show on Friday Afternoon(Thursday Night your time)?


Yes...it appears that I'm a regular...I'll have chat up this time as well so that I can field questions...
Quoting Floodman:


Yes...it appears that I'm a regular...I'll have chat up this time as well so that I can field questions...

Did that info I got from Rossi help in anyway?
Quoting NRAamy:
Grothar is an exceptionally intelligent indiviual who is also multi-lingual

who also neglects to reply to Big Bird stories....


I will have to admit that is an oversight on his part; unfortunately, I haven't looked at it either and will have to do so shortly before you mention that little faux pas!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did that info I got from Rossi help in anyway?


I've been covered up...I am going to make contact tomorrow; we can use the help, if only by way of information
Quoting AussieStorm:
Duck walks into a pub and orders a schooner of beer and a ham sandwich.

The barman looks at him and says, "But you're a duck".

"I see your eyes are working", replies the duck.

"And you talk!" exclaims the barman.

"I see your ears are working", says the duck,

"Now can I have my beer and my sandwich please?"

"Certainly", says the barman, "sorry about that, it's just we
don't get many ducks in this pub. What are you doing round this way?".

"I'm working on the building site across the road", explains the duck.

Then the duck drinks his beer, eats his sandwich and leaves.

This continues for 2 weeks. Then one day the circus comes to
town.The Ringleader of the circus comes into the pub and the barman says to
him, "You're with the circus aren't you?, I know this duck that would be
just brilliant in your circus, he talks, drinks beer and everything!".

"Sounds marvellous", says the ringleader, "get him to give me a call".

So the next day when the duck comes into the pub the barman
says, "Hey Mr Duck, I reckon I can line you up with a top job, paying
really
good money!"

"Yeah?", says the duck, "Sounds great, where is it?"

"At the circus", says the barman.

"The circus?" the duck enquires.

"That's right", replies the barman.

"The circus?" the duck asks again.

"Yes" says the barman

"That place with the big tent?" the duck enquires.

"Yeah" the barman replies.

"With all the animals?" the duck questioned.

"Of Course" the barman replies.

"With the big canvas roof with the hole in the middle", asks the duck.

"That's right!" says the barman.

The duck looks confused.

"What would they want with a plasterer?





BADA BING!
Quoting Floodman:


I've been covered up...I am going to make contact tomorrow; we can use the help, if only by way of information

ok cool
A man staggered into a hospital with a concussion, multiple bruises, two black eyes, and a five-iron wrapped tightly around his throat.

Naturally, the doctor asked him, "What happened to you?"

"Well, I was having a quiet round of golf with my wife, when at a difficult hole; we both sliced our balls into a cow pasture. We went to look for them and while I was looking around, I noticed one of the cows had something white at its rear end."

"I walked over, lifted its tail and, sure enough, there was a golf ball with my wife's monogram on it - stuck right in the middle of the cow's butt."

"Still holding the cow's tail up, I yelled to my wife, "Hey, this looks like yours!"

"I don't remember much after that."
A fifteen year-old boy came home with a new Chevrolet Avalanche and his parents began to yell and scream, "Where did you get that truck???!!!" He calmly told them, "I bought it today."

"With what money?" demanded his parents. They knew what a Chevrolet Avalanche cost.

"Well," said the boy, "this one cost me just fifteen dollars." So the parents began to yell even louder. "Who would sell a truck like that for fifteen dollars?" they said.

"It was the lady up the street," said the boy. I don't know her name - they just moved in. She saw me ride past on my bike and asked me if I wanted to buy a Chevrolet Avalanche for fifteen dollars."

"Oh my Goodness!," moaned the mother, "she must be a child abuser. Who knows what she will do next? John, you go right up there and see what's going on." So the boy's father walked up the street to the house where the lady lived and found her out in the yard calmly planting petunias! He introduced himself as the father of the boy to whom she had sold a new Chevrolet Avalanche for fifteen dollars and demanded to know why she did it.

"Well," she said, "this morning I got a phone call from my husband. I thought he was on a Business Trip, but learned from a friend he had ran off to Hawaii with his mistress and really doesn't intend to come back. He claimed he was stranded and needed cash, and asked me to sell his new Chevrolet Avalanche and send him the money. So I did."

Stop it, you're killing me!
Aussie, mail for you!
LOL Aussie!
HOW TO CALL THE POLICE

HOW TO CALL THE POLICE WHEN YOU'RE OLD AND DON'T MOVE FAST ANYMORE.

George Phillips of Gold Coast, Australia was going up to bed when his wife told him that he'd left the light on in the garden shed, which she could see from the bedroom window. ( Boy does this sound familiar! )

George opened the back door to go turn off the light but saw that there were people in the shed stealing things.

He phoned the police, who asked "Is someone in your house?" and he said "no". Then they said that all patrols were busy, and that he should simply lock his door and an officer would be along when available. George said, "Okay," hung up, counted to 30, and phoned the police again.

"Hello, I just called you a few seconds ago because there were people stealing things from my shed. Well, you don't have to worry about them now because I've just shot them." Then he hung up.

Within five minutes three police cars, an Armed Response Unit, and an ambulance showed up at the Phillips' residence and caught the burglars red-handed.

One of the Policemen said to George: "I thought you said that you'd shot them!"

George said, "I thought you said there was nobody available!"
208 LOL
Quoting NRAamy:
Grothar is an exceptionally intelligent indiviual who is also multi-lingual

who also neglects to reply to Big Bird stories....


YO. Amy, I left an aplogy on the Robdahood's blog this morning. How many times do you want to to apologize. LOLOL Boy, that is the last time I mention Sesame Street to you!!!!
The teacher was telling the kids about the birds and the bees and she explained that when a man and a woman meet and fall in love, nine months later the stork usually brings them a little baby.

Little Johnny at the back of the class puts his hand up and asks the teacher, are you sure about the stork miss? Cos my sister just got a little baby and she said it was from a shag at the beach.!!!
A farmer named Seamus had a car accident.

In court, the lorry company's hot-shot solicitor was
questioning Seamus.

'Didn't you say to the Police at the scene of the accident, 'I'm fine?'
asked the solicitor.

Seamus responded: 'Well, I'll tell you what happened. I had just
loaded my favourite cow, Bessie, into the...'

'I didn't ask for any details', the solicitor interrupted. 'Just

Answer the question. Did you not say, at the scene of the accident,
'I'm fine!'?'

Seamus said, 'Well, I had just got Bessie into the trailer and I was driving down the road....'

The solicitor interrupted again and said, 'Your Honour, I am trying to establish the fact that, at the scene of the accident, his man told the police on the scene that he was fine.
Now several weeks after the accident, he is trying to sue my client. I believe he is a fraud.

Please tell him to simply answer the question.'

By this time, the Judge was fairly interested in Seamus's answer and said to the solicitor: 'I'd like to hear what he has to say about his favourite cow, Bessie'.

Seamus thanked the Judge and proceeded. 'Well as I was saying, I had just loaded Bessie, my favourite cow, into the trailer and was driving her down the road when this huge lorry and trailer came through a stop sign and hit my trailer right in the side.

I was thrown into one ditch and Bessie was thrown into the other. I was hurt, very bad like, and didn't want to move.

However, I could hear old Bessie moaning and groaning. I knew she was in terrible shape just by her groans.

Shortly after the accident, a policeman on a motorbike turned up.
He could hear Bessie moaning and groaning so he went over to her.
After he looked at her, and saw her condition, he took out his gun and shot her between the eyes.

Then the policeman came across the road, gun still in hand, looked at me, and said, 'How are you feeling?'

'Now what would you say?'
I hope posting these are ok, the blog is kinda slow.
Almost Entire State a Disaster Area from Freezing Weather
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/news-article.aspx?storyid=151482&catid=3

Severe Ice Storms and Freezing Temperatures Knocked Down 3,000 Utility Poles - Tribal Residents Have Been Without Electricity, Heat and Running Water for Six Days.

Chairman of Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe has declared a State of Emergency in central South Dakota on the Indian reservation approximately the size of Connecticut with nearly 15,000 Tribal members. The Tribe is still awaiting Presidential disaster declaration.

Days of ice storms and strong winds have downed over 3,000 utility poles across the reservation. Thousands of already impoverished tribal residents have been without electricity or heat for five days, with wind chill factors well below zero. Experts estimate it may be as long as a month before all areas have electricity restored.

No running water

"Making matters worse," said Tribal Chairman Joe Brings Plenty, "the loss of electricity has also knocked out the Reservation's aging water system. We have no running water on the entire Reservation, it is also affecting of Reservation communities such as Faith, whose water is supplied from pipes running through the Reservation."
http://www.examiner.com/x-10438-Human-Rights-Examiner~y2010m2d2-Distaster-declared-on-Cheyene-R-Sio ux-Reservation-Aid-urgently-needed

Obama declares disaster in NC for December storms
http://www.reflector.com/state-news/obama-declares-disaster-nc-december-storms-21882
A Mormon was seated next to an Irishman on a flight from London. After the plane was airborne, drink orders were taken. The Irishman asked for a whiskey, which was promptly brought and placed before him.

The flight attendant then asked the Mormon if he would like a drink. He replied in disgust, 'I'd rather be savagely raped by a dozen whores than let liquor touch my lips.'

The Irishman then handed his drink back to the attendant and said, 'Me too. I didn't know we had a choice.'
Quoting AussieStorm:
Before marriage....

After marriage....
Simply read from bottom to top.

ha ha, i like that one :)
Hey, Aussie, the Tonight Show slot is already filled. They are taking Jay Leno back. LOL I don't think you have a chance, but you got great material.
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, Aussie, the Tonight Show slot is already filled. They are taking Jay Leno back. LOL I don't think you have a chance, but you got great material.


I second that Lol
Extreme cold triggers livestock disaster in Mongolia – UN
2 February 2010 – More than 20,000 families are at the risk of going hungry, as temperatures reaching as low as -50 degrees centrigrade have killed nearly two million head of livestock in Mongolia, the United Nations agriculture agency reported today.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=33645&Cr=&Cr1=
Aussie, do you have any idea what this means? link

:P
Quoting tornadodude:
Aussie, do you have any idea what this means? link

:P


I do Ill WU you.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Extreme cold triggers livestock disaster in Mongolia – UN
2 February 2010 – More than 20,000 families are at the risk of going hungry, as temperatures reaching as low as -50 degrees centrigrade have killed nearly two million head of livestock in Mongolia, the United Nations agriculture agency reported today.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=33645&Cr=&Cr1=


Wie spät ist es bei dir jetzt?
Groth...you have mail....

I mailed it from Sesame Street!!!!!!


;)
Quoting Grothar:


Wie spät ist es bei dir jetzt?

3:20 ;)
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

3:20 ;)


Wann schläfst du denn?
Quoting Grothar:


But you will have to drive yourself from the airport.

Deal (well, I am not driving anything during this visit). Friday the 12th? Dinner and that beer?

Maybe I could con you into picking me up from the hotel or meeting somewhere close to it (walking distance). I will have no vehicle. What say you?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Well here in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX summer starts May 15 and ends around Oct 10 each year. We are fortunate, we have a cooler climate than NOLA, about 4F cooler.

You might be 4 F cooler, on average over the entire year, but you are a good 5 F warmer, at least, during July, August, and part of Sept, I'd wager (no, I haven't done the research, just basing it off of having lived in TX 7 years and in SE LA for 25 ).

Flood is right, though. College Station at 105 F was far more comfortable than NOLA at 95 F.
Quoting Grothar:


Wann schläfst du denn?


Grothar, mind chatting for a bit?
Quoting Grothar:


Wann schläfst du denn?

I don't think he does...
Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope posting these are ok, the blog is kinda slow.


Love it. I have always been envious of people who can tell jokes. You are good!
This Texan walks into a pub on St. Patty's day, swaggers up to the bar and slaps a $100 bill on the top.

"Woooo, hee! I'll give this Benjamin Franklin to the cowpoke that can drink ten pints of Guiness in fifteen minutes!"

Everyone looks over at the guy with the ten gallon hat and sort of looks away. One fellow even walks out of the bar.

About twenty minutes later, the gentleman who left the bar walked back in and went up to the Texan. He asks sheepishly with his Irish brogue, "Sir, is your offer still on the table?"

"Why sure it is! You think you can win this $100?"

"I'm not sure, but I'll give it a try."

Sure enough, the gentleman pulls up a barstool, the Texan orders ten pints and the kind fellow starts to drink. Eleven and a half minutes later, the fellow takes the last pull from the tenth pint to a round of applause.

"Well, shoot! I didn't know you had it in you! If you don't mind me asking, where did you go before you took me up on the bet?"

"Well," said the man as he pocketed the $100, "I had to go to the pub next door to see if I could do it first before I took you up on your offer."
How many IBM employees does it take to screw in a light bulb?

10,000: one to hold up the light bulb, and 9,999 to turn the building around.
Many thanx to humidcity.com for linking my wunderblog in the "nola bloggers" column.


Who Dat..

Finish Strong Sunday.
heres sum models..
GFS




A woman took her dog to the vet. She said, "I think my dog is dead". The doctor laid the dog on the table and reached down and took a cat out of a box. The cat walked all over the dog and the dog didn't move. "Yes, your dog is dead," says the doctor.

"How much do I owe you?" the lady asks.

"$345," says the doctor.

"$345!!?" the lady asks.

"Yes. $45 for the office visit and $300 for the cat scan."
235: Sorry about this.

That qualifies for a "Groan"...
A man goes to the doctor and tells him that he hasn't been feeling well.

The doctor examines him, leaves the room and comes back with three different bottles of pills. The doctor says, "Take the green pill with a big glass of water when you get up. Take the blue pill with a big glass of water after lunch. Then just before going to bed, take the red pill with another big glass of water."

Startled to be put on so much medicine the man stammers, "Jeez doc, exactly what's my problem?"

The Doctor says, "You're not drinking enough water."
How many men does it take to open a beer?
None, it should be opened by the time she brings it to you! ;)
I killed the blog :p
Fami is crossing Madagascar.

Fami is overland now..


Here's a weather station Fami should go just south of.
Quoting AussieStorm:
How come there is no ground hog day in August, to say if there is going to be or not, 6 weeks more of summer?

Most animals are smart enough to stay out of the sun in mid-August.
Quoting AussieStorm:
A Mormon was seated next to an Irishman on a flight from London. After the plane was airborne, drink orders were taken. The Irishman asked for a whiskey, which was promptly brought and placed before him.

The flight attendant then asked the Mormon if he would like a drink. He replied in disgust, 'I'd rather be savagely raped by a dozen whores than let liquor touch my lips.'

The Irishman then handed his drink back to the attendant and said, 'Me too. I didn't know we had a choice.'



that is funny!
so this is how bleak my January was:

At the Indianapolis International Airport. Fog or haze was observed on 22 days, including 16 straight days from the 13th to the 28th. 6 days of dense fog were observed, including four straight days from the 16th to the 19th. The extended period of fog or haze coincided with a prolonged period of cloudy skies that began on the 15th and remained nearly continuous through the 26th.
Quoting Grothar:


Wann schläfst du denn?

Ganz unterschiedlich ;) (Just slept 1 hour)
Here's the action in the continuing Yellowstone earthquake swarm today (below) -- been going on for more than 2 weeks now. Still nothing above a 4.0, but the activity is still confined to a very specific area on the NW inside edge of the caldera. Something is going on there:

2.6 2010/02/02 20:25:17 44.561N 110.949W 5.6 17 km (10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
2.8 2010/02/02 19:44:12 44.561N 110.947W 5.4 17 km (11 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
3.1 2010/02/02 19:31:47 44.559N 110.944W 8.7 17 km (11 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
2.5 2010/02/02 19:13:18 44.561N 110.943W 0.5 17 km (11 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
2.2 2010/02/02 17:02:53 44.554N 110.943W 1.4 18 km (11 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
1.5 2010/02/02 15:46:18 44.553N 110.921W 6.8 19 km (12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
1.5 2010/02/02 15:46:00 44.554N 110.920W 6.7 19 km (12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
2.2 2010/02/02 15:44:51 44.556N 110.920W 8.9 19 km (12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
2.1 2010/02/02 15:44:14 44.553N 110.922W 6.8 19 km (12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
1.6 2010/02/02 15:43:50 44.552N 110.928W 13.2 19 km (12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
1.5 2010/02/02 15:36:30 44.548N 110.931W 6.8 19 km (12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
2.5 2010/02/02 15:36:00 44.551N 110.928W 6.0 19 km (12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
Bueller? Bueller? Anyone? Anyone?
Quoting WunderFul:
Bueller? Bueller? Anyone? Anyone?

I noticed the last 2.2 early was located more northerly.
is it weird if I miss being younger than I am now? Lol

like I have been looking back at different weather events from this decade (most of which I remember) and I just remember sitting at home tracking the 2004 tornado outbreaks, all the hurricanes this decade, I miss going to school and having the teachers ask me about the weather, I can just remember spending countless hours staying up late watching the radar as storms rolled in, and looking outside to see the lightning, then proceeding to explain to people that it isnt heat lightning haha man, I miss the simple days. :P
Quoting TampaTom:
This Texan walks into a pub on St. Patty's day, swaggers up to the bar and slaps a $100 bill on the top.

"Woooo, hee! I'll give this Benjamin Franklin to the cowpoke that can drink ten pints of Guiness in fifteen minutes!"

Everyone looks over at the guy with the ten gallon hat and sort of looks away. One fellow even walks out of the bar.

About twenty minutes later, the gentleman who left the bar walked back in and went up to the Texan. He asks sheepishly with his Irish brogue, "Sir, is your offer still on the table?"

"Why sure it is! You think you can win this $100?"

"I'm not sure, but I'll give it a try."

Sure enough, the gentleman pulls up a barstool, the Texan orders ten pints and the kind fellow starts to drink. Eleven and a half minutes later, the fellow takes the last pull from the tenth pint to a round of applause.

"Well, shoot! I didn't know you had it in you! If you don't mind me asking, where did you go before you took me up on the bet?"

"Well," said the man as he pocketed the $100, "I had to go to the pub next door to see if I could do it first before I took you up on your offer."


Now that's a good Irish joke...LOL
check this out: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/20100131_Snow_Vis.jpg


sorry, chrome wont let me post links or images
We all do.
I just updated the Portlight website and my blog...come on by and check them out
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, FLOODMAN!!!

Happy Birthday Floodman...

Welcome to the 2010 "50" Club!!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Let's see now...we've had jokes about Irish drunks, hoes, and mistresses... but I'd get banned for posting this, because there's a picture of a weapon??!!

Survivalist Groundhog




LOL that's awesome, you have mail btw :P

happy b-day Ron!!!
Que hubo, mi gente?
Quoting tornadodude:



LOL that's awesome, you have mail btw :P

happy b-day Ron!!!


Mail back at ya'!

Thanks for the important "Floodman Jerry" birthday reminders!

We have -- 4 inches of SNOW -- again, already.
And the "real" snow is supposed to come in again this weekend. I haven't seen as much snow for 6 years!

Have a good night everybody...I'm going to go do a preliminary shoveling...so the ankle-biters can get out to do their thing in the morning! Hubby will faint. :)
hought i post this comment from realclimate

Dave Cooke, on Polar amplification:

The broad picture behind high latitude amplification is pretty well established. Note that in transient simulations, by “polar amplification” we really mean “arctic amplification.” The South as a whole doesn’t change as fast as the Arctic, at least not until equilibrium. As other people have noted, the changing ratio of ice to land/ocean surface and corresponding surface albedo decline is a big factor. In fact, in model simulations that look at the variation in climate sensitivity over a broad range of forcing (out to an ice-free world for instance) the surface albedo feedback can be the main driver in reduced sensitivity as global temperature rises, while water vapor feedback tends to become stronger.

The way the ice-albedo feedback actually works is not generally well described in secondary sources, which tend to oversimplify the picture to just “less reflected radiation” but a real appreciation for the mechanisms involved comes with understanding the heat fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean on multiple timescales. For instance, Arctic amplification is especially prominent in the cold-season, when there is not much incident solar radiation to speak of. In the summer when there is relatively much more solar radiation, much of the energy goes into melting or evaporation rather than surface temperature amplification. So this shows that the picture is a bit more complicated than just “less reflected sunlight.” As Miller et al. (2007) note:

//”The amplification of high-latitude climate change results from complex positive feedbacks involving exchanges of energy and water mass between the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. The positive feedback related to changes in sea-ice albedo is one of the most frequently mentioned, however there are other positive feedbacks that are also important. Among these are feedbacks related to water vapor and clouds. Chen et al. [2003, 2006] demonstrated the importance of correctly representing in climate models the relationships among Arctic cloud and radiative properties. The present paper examines how some of these relationships and feedbacks may change in simulations of future climate.”//

Graversen et al. (discussed at RC some time ago) also brought up the issue of poleward heat transport which is relevant as well. In general though, arctic amplification is one of the most robust features of a warmer climate as we progress into the 21st century. By the way, I’m not entirely sure I agree with BPL’s statement, “There is less water vapor in colder air, so CO2 is proportionally more important the closer you get to the poles” as a reason for polar amplification.
261. xcool



Wow, it's pretty silent - just like before a major storm.
interesting take on global warming last night on "southpark" cooler today 60 with a cold wind e cent florida
The storm sytem which went through the canarien islands (german video with flash floods)
http://www.spiegel.de/video/video-1044219.html

Morning to all. H-bday Floodman. Had .78 inchs from the last rains here in cfl. Have a great day. John
G'morn all. The 06Z GFS is trying to give the N cent Gulf Coast another snow storm for next Tuesday I see.
Ah, dare to dream!
Quoting Floodman:


Now that's a good Irish joke...LOL



Happy Birthday Flood. I had my 50th in Sept.
If I drank 10 pints of Guiness I'd be "Floodman"!
38*F and clear skies in Macon Georgia this morning, looks like a good day to fire up the Harley, throw on the winter leathers, and head out to the breakfast bar at Shoney's just as the Sun is coming up over the pine trees. :)
Anyone else think there is an influx in "nuts" news?
People doing stupid things?

Btw this movie is intresting in this regards ;)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1300563/
Quoting RTLSNK:
38*F and clear skies in Macon Georgia this morning, looks like a good day to fire up the Harley, throw on the winter leathers, and head out to the breakfast bar at Shoney's just as the Sun is coming up over the pine trees. :)
Cool, have a great drive than, i saw your photo and can imagine how much fun this is (my mother use to drive also sometimes a motorbycycle - but not harley).
271. unf97
Good morning everyone!

45.4 degrees currently at my home north Jax, FL location. Looks like a nice day in store today. Temps seasonable with max expected to be around 60 degrees late today.

Next system will roll through this area late Thursday into Friday with more moderate- heavy rain. The El Nino pattern continues to be locked into place.

BTW, Pensacola Doug, let's keep on dreaming on that GFS scenario LOL... But, you never can rule anything out in reality in a pattern like this one.

Have a great day!
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Cool, have a great drive than, i saw your photo and can imagine how much fun this is (my mother use to drive also sometimes a motorbycycle - but not harley).


If it has two wheels, its all good. Have ridden many types in the last 45 years. Did a two week tour of Europe years ago with the Beach Family Motorcycle Tour Group out of Munich. Down through Austria, across the Northern Italian Alps, up into Switzerland, back into Austria, and back to Munich. An incredible motorcycle trip, motorcycle heaven. Rode a BMW 1100 GS provided by the Beach Tour. Would do it again in a heartbeat! :)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Happy Birthday Flood. I had my 50th in Sept.
If I drank 10 pints of Guiness I'd be "Floodman"!


Gee, I sort of remember my 50th birthday. It was yesterday. 13 years ago. :)

Ditto on the Happy Birthday Floodman!
16 f in Dover NH
Quoting RTLSNK:
38*F and clear skies in Macon Georgia this morning, looks like a good day to fire up the Harley, throw on the winter leathers, and head out to the breakfast bar at Shoney's just as the Sun is coming up over the pine trees. :)



I love the Shoney's breakfast bar. Unfortuneately, they closed the one in my area about 3 years ago. Surprised me cause every time I ever went there it was busy. Go figure.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Anyone else think there is an influx in "nuts" news?
People doing stupid things?

Btw this movie is intresting in this regards ;)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1300563/



Yep. Left wing loonies buying into.....

I'll stop here.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Yep. Left wing loonies buying into.....

I'll stop here.
Did you saw the movie?
278. IKE
From Mobile,AL. weather office....

"LONG TERM...BY 12Z THU SFC RIDGE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST SHIFTS EAST. TO THE WEST MAIN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SW CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING SFC FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PWS RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES...DEPICTED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER
MUCH OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 18Z. THIS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MOVES
SLOWING EASTWARD ACROSS A BROAD THETA E SURFACE THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRI MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF 125 KT
UPPER JET ELONGATED MOSTLY IN A NORTH TO SOUTH FASHION POSITIONED
MOSTLY OVER COASTAL LA STRETCHING NNE INTO SOUTHERN MS BY AROUND
12Z. FROM THIS PATTERN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST MOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD OVER THE CWFA BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z FRI...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS PATTERN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...4 TO 6
INCHES LOCALLY...WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE STORM CELLS TRAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAL OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
STILL LOOKS HARD TO PINPOINT BUT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHERE ANTECEDENT
SOIL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...MOSTLY OVER NORTHWEST FL STRETCHING NORTH
INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD GOOD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF STATE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SAT. FOR SUN THROUGH MID WEEK
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MOSTLY OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
STRETCHING SOUTH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SFC
LOW MOVING EASTWARD MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
OFFSHORE....LEADING TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MON AFT THROUGH MID MORNING TUES. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
A MIX OF THE MEX GUIDANCE AND MOS GUIDE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. 32/EE"
279. IKE
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Did you saw the movie?


No I didn't see the movie. I watched the trailers tho and it is apparent that the movie is pure left-wing propaganda using scare tactics to advance a political point of view that is based on questionable science. Just my opinion.
Had 1 to 2 inches of rain yesterday in the Orlando area with possibly another 1 to 2 come late Friday with potentialy SEVERE WX but we will have to see how warm we get on Friday. If we hit between 80 and 85 then watchout because dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s. Also turning of winds from the surface to aloft could support tornado activity.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


No I didn't see the movie. I watched the trailers tho and it is apparent that the movie is pure left-wing propaganda using scare tactics to advance a political point of view that is based on questionable science. Just my opinion.
What you suggest than? ( I did not saw the movie yet)
Orlando international picked up 1.82" the last 2 days and if this pattern continues this month then we will more than likely break our monthy record of 8". Next looks very wet for the florida penisula and quite cool 2.
A strong storm system along the Gulf Coast will produce the threat of severe thunderstorms in areas of the Deep South Thursday.


A warm, moist inflow off the Gulf of Mexico, along with a strong disturbance in the area, will create the possibility of high winds and hail with these strong thunderstorms. Flooding will be the major threat from the severe weather throughout areas from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Good Evening all, at the moment it's raining cats and dogs outside no groundhogs to be seen, I don't think it could rain any harder.


Quoting tornadodude:
Aussie, do you have any idea what this means? link

:P


Did you get the answer?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening all, at the moment it's raining cats and dogs outside, I don't think it could rain any harder.




That's good news because the Australian Drought has been making news even in the US. Hopefully you can pick up a couple of inches.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
What you suggest than? ( I did not saw the movie yet)


I suggest more research. Un-biased if that is possible. I'm not sure it is tho with the current polarized politcal climate we find ourselves in. There is too much doubt about AGW to just buy the argument that our warmer planet is all man-made.
Quoting Jeff9641:


That's good news because the Australian Drought has been making news even in the US. Hopefully you can pick up a couple of inches.

It's all thanks to the rain depression and associated troughs linked to Ex-TC Olga.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's all thanks to the rain depression and associated troughs linked to Ex-TC Olga.


How long are you supposed to get rain for?
Looks like another soaker this weekend.
Quoting Jeff9641:


How long are you supposed to get rain for?

ment to clear up by Wednesday next week.
From JB this morning.

TEXAS BEWARE!!!

The next 3 weeks will be wild in the Lone State State as an active southern stream and enough cold coming south will lead to the the coldest 15-25 day period of the winter starting about Sunday. A couple of these storms will probably stay far enough south to offer the threat of snow all the way to the I-10 corridor of Florida before the winter is over. This is not an outlandish statement, it simply fits with patterns that have done this before. But the hammering Texas should take the next 2-4 weeks should be worse overall as far as the southern areas of the US go as they are in direct line from California storms and colder air that is coming down.
Quoting Jeff9641:
A strong storm system along the Gulf Coast will produce the threat of severe thunderstorms in areas of the Deep South Thursday.


A warm, moist inflow off the Gulf of Mexico, along with a strong disturbance in the area, will create the possibility of high winds and hail with these strong thunderstorms. Flooding will be the major threat from the severe weather throughout areas from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.


Good Morning Folks........As of this morning, Tallahassee NWS is saying that the Florida Pandhandle/Big Bend should remain on the "cool" side of the front, given it's low trajectory, so they are not forecasting any severe weather/t-storms for North Florida other than the potential for flooding rains...
295. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
From JB this morning.

TEXAS BEWARE!!!

The next 3 weeks will be wild in the Lone State State as an active southern stream and enough cold coming south will lead to the the coldest 15-25 day period of the winter starting about Sunday. A couple of these storms will probably stay far enough south to offer the threat of snow all the way to the I-10 corridor of Florida before the winter is over. This is not an outlandish statement, it simply fits with patterns that have done this before. But the hammering Texas should take the next 2-4 weeks should be worse overall as far as the southern areas of the US go as they are in direct line from California storms and colder air that is coming down.


Pretty bold statements from Bastardi.

Interesting...thanks for the info!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning Folks........As of this morning, Tallahassee NWS is saying that the Florida Pandhandle/Big Bend should remain on the "cool" side of the front, given it's low trajectory, so they are not forecasting any severe weather/t-storms for North Florida other than the potential for flooding rains...


This was from Accuweather.com. Front page of website.
Happy Birthday Floodman - How does it feel to be as old as LST?
Quoting IKE:


Pretty bold statements from Bastardi.

Interesting...thanks for the info!


IkE some models are showing SNOW for the Florida Panhandle. Also next Friday A low is forecasted to develope very far south in Gulf so you better not hope this moisture moves to far north because you could get hammered. A cold heavy rain for C FL but the things may get interesting in Panhandle. Snowstorm after snowstorm is continuing to shift the back south.
Still in DC. Haven't been home to the Outer Banks since Halloween. What is the opposite of "island Fever?" Anyway... are we in DC in for another storm beginning around 1300 Friday through Saturday? If so, how much?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
From JB this morning.

TEXAS BEWARE!!!

The next 3 weeks will be wild in the Lone State State as an active southern stream and enough cold coming south will lead to the the coldest 15-25 day period of the winter starting about Sunday. A couple of these storms will probably stay far enough south to offer the threat of snow all the way to the I-10 corridor of Florida before the winter is over. This is not an outlandish statement, it simply fits with patterns that have done this before. But the hammering Texas should take the next 2-4 weeks should be worse overall as far as the southern areas of the US go as they are in direct line from California storms and colder air that is coming down.


I agree this is not an exageration if you look at the models we are entering a cold 2 weeks at least. With storms every few days affecting the south.
Quoting Jeff9641:


IkE some models are showing SNOW for the Florida Panhandle. Also next Friday A low is forecasted to develope very far south in Gulf so you better not hope this moisture moves to far north because you could get hammered. A cold heavy rain for C FL but the things may get interesting in Panhandle. Snowstorm after snowstorm is continuing to shift the back south.


Oh now there I was a little depressed this morning, only one cup of coffee so far.... and poof.. this little Gem to shine up my day :)
Quoting OuterBanker:
Still in DC. Haven't been home to the Outer Banks since Halloween. What is the opposite of "island Fever?" Anyway... are we in DC in for another storm beginning around 1300 Friday through Saturday? If so, how much?


6 to 10" with thunder and lightning. Be safe come late Friday as this will be a heavy wet snow.
Drought stricken regions soak up heavy falls

As the remnant moisture from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga makes its journey into New South Wales and South Australia, some areas are picking up their biggest rain in years.

Northwest NSW is welcoming the heavy rain that brought Tibooburra their heaviest falls in three years, picking up 70mm in recent days, already well above their monthly average of 24mm.

This comes as good news as dry conditions have plagued the area with much of the region seeing less than 20% of their average January rainfall.

Unfortunately the heaviest rain had stuck just to that northwest corner so just a little further away Wannaaring only saw five millimetres.

Northeastern South Australia also saw flooding rain with Moomba picking up 75mm in the last 48 hours, which is their biggest rain in 11 years and more than they received in all of 2009. Further south, Arkaroola saw 46mm making it their best rain in four years.

The rain will continue to fall today and will spread further south in the Flinders before this moisture is dragged east. Melrose has had 17mm. Some areas over eastern SA and western NSW could see another 40 to 50mm over the next 24 hours.

- Weatherzone
Drenching closes western roads


Rain over the past week in far west New South Wales has forced the closure of many roads in the unincorporated area.

Dirt roads have become muddy and unsafe around Tibooburra and Wanaaring.

Fenn Miller from the Cameron Corner Store says he has seen 101 millimetres of rain fall at the tri-state border in 36 hours.

Mr Miller says he has been unable to drive a kilometre to check the level of his dam.

"That supplies all our toilets and showers, so I wanted to check it out because we were getting very low but I went down the other day but I got stuck with my quad bike and couldn't get back," he said.

- ABC
Residents urged to remain cyclone vigilant


The Bureau of Meteorology is urging north-west Western Australian residents to remain prepared as the cyclone season reaches the halfway mark.

The bureau's updated seasonal outlook shows a significant risk of a tropical cyclone hitting the coast between now and April.

Two cyclones have already formed off the Kimberley coast and caused significant damage - Cyclone Laurence in December and Magda last month.

Joe Courtney from the bureau's severe weather section says another cyclone could form by the end of the month.

"Well at the moment the tropics are fairly quiet in terms of cyclone activity and that looks like being the case for the next week or so," he said.

"But as we get towards mid to late February, we'd expect the chances of a cyclone forming to increase and that time onwards we're urging people to be on the lookout for cyclones developing."

- ABC
Happy Birthday, Flood!



OK, it's the Rock Band version...
Jeff9631. Thanks for the update. We just watched three local channels and no one was willing to take a stab at how much snow we should expect. Thanks.
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