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Six more weeks of non-winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:35 PM GMT on February 02, 2012


Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!

On Gobbler's Knob on this magnificent Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2012
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, the Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
was summoned from his burrow in the old oak stump
by the tap of President Bill Deedly.

He greeted his handlers, John Griffiths and Ron Ploucha.

After casting an appreciative glance towards thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed
As I look at the crowd on Gobbler's Knob
Many shadows do I see
So six more weeks of winter it must be!


That's the official word posted at groundhog.org from Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. When the sun rises in San Francisco, this morning, wunderground's Alan T. Groundhog can give us an additional shadow-based forecast for the coming winter (video here.)


Figure 1. Wunderground's prognosticating groundhog, Alan T. Groundhog, prepares to go in front of the blue screen with wunderground meteorologist Jessica Parker.

How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

What winter? The non-winter of 2011 - 2012
Considering winter hasn't really arrived in the lower 48 states yet, I'm not sure how much validity we can give to fearless Phil's forecast. Here in Michigan, like in most of the U.S., we've basically had three straight months of November weather. There have been no major snowstorms, and frequent sunny days with highs in the 50s--twenty five degrees above average. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported yesterday, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model showing a huge ridge of high pressure dominating the Western U.S. and no major snowstorms over the U.S. through mid-February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 has a chance to end up as the second least snowy winter in U.S. history. Temperature statistics for January will not be available until next week, but I expect the month will end up being a top-five warmest January, with temperatures about 4 - 5°F above average. We won't be able to beat the 8.7°F above-average temperature posted during the warmest January in U.S. history, which occurred in 2006. If U.S. temperatures remain 4 - 5°F above average during February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 will be the warmest in U.S. history. The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992, with the winter of 1999 - 2000 holding the record for warmest winter. Winter average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has been increasing by about 1.6°F per century since 1895 (Figure 2.)


Figure 2. Winter temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during the period 1895 - 2011 increased at a rate of about 1.6°F per century. The warmest winter was 1999 - 2000, and the coldest was 1978 - 1979. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

What's going on?
This January's remarkable warmth and lack of snow contrasts starkly with what happened during the previous two winters. January 2011 was the 5th snowiest and 35th coldest in U.S. history, and January 2010 was the 7th snowiest and 55th coldest. Wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz had this to say in her blog post yesterday about what's been going on this winter: In December, we were reporting that the lower-48's unseasonably warm weather and lack of snow was due to a particularly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The Arctic Oscillation is a measure of the jet stream's strength. A positive AO is a stronger than average jet stream, and it tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic. During a positive AO, the Arctic is colder than average, and the mid-latitudes are warmer than average. In December and early January, the AO was positive. In mid-January, the AO went negative, which we expect to have the opposite impact. A weak jet steam means cold, Arctic air can escape to the south, and that's what we've been seeing in Europe this week. This cold air has yet to spill southwards into the Eastern U.S. like it usually does during a negative-AO period, since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--the component of the AO over the North Atlantic--has not gone negative, and is close to normal right now. However, the long-range GFS model is predicting a modest cold air outbreak will occur over the Eastern U.S. around February 15.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I doubt it! More winter that is!
Nice!LOL


Region: VANUATU
Geographic coordinates: 17.810S, 167.149E
Magnitude: 6.9 Mw
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 2 Feb 2012 13:34:38
Time near the Epicenter: 3 Feb 2012 00:34:38
Local standard time in your area: 2 Feb 2012 13:34:38

Location with respect to nearby cities:
122 km (76 miles) W (267 degrees) of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu
253 km (157 miles) S (180 degrees) of Santo (Luganville), Vanuatu
294 km (183 miles) NW (310 degrees) of Isangel, Vanuatu
1805 km (1122 miles) NE (56 degrees) of Brisbane, Australia


TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
342 AM HST THU FEB 02 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0335 AM HST 02 FEB 2012
COORDINATES - 17.9 SOUTH 167.2 EAST
LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.9 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
Could Climate Change Put the Groundhog Out of Business? With cold weather absent from much of the U.S. Northeast this year, what does a groundhog's shadow mean anymore?

"The United States' smallest meteorologist must be scratching his head about now.

Each February for the past 125 years, Punxsutawney Phil -- the Pennsylvanian groundhog long considered a living symbol of Groundhog Day -- has sauntered from his burrow to cast a shadow on the weeks and months ahead. His predictions, though not always accurate, are cheered by hundreds of fans who flock to his den at Gobbler's Knob, a wooded hillock just outside the town that bears his name.

The ground rules for Phil's tradition have always been clear: If the groundhog sees his shadow, six weeks of winter are yet to come; if no shadow appears, then spring is on its way.

But with cold weather stubbornly absent across much of the Northeast this year and spring seemingly already under way, Phil may have beaten Old Man Winter to the punch. Now it's anybody's guess what a groundhog's shadow may portend.

"NEWS FLASH: Groundhog Day cancelled! Phil says he's pretty sure spring *already* arrived in western PA, preempting tomorrow's event," joked climate scientist Michael Mann in a Twitter post yesterday."


Article...
Positively Arctic: Arctic Oscillation switches phase.
Jan.5 2012

Arctic sea ice extent remained unusually low through December, especially in the Barents and Kara seas. In sharp contrast to the past two winters, the winter of 2011 has so far seen a generally positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, a weather pattern that helps to explain low snow cover extent and warmer than average conditions over much of the United States and Eastern Europe. In Antarctica, where summer is beginning, sea ice extent is presently above average. Hmm?

Link

I guess there is a update coming soon on Europe!

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange

Climate Change Indicators in the United States

Collecting and interpreting environmental indicators play a critical role in our understanding of climate change and its causes. An indicator represents the state of certain environmental conditions over a given area and a specified period of time. Examples of climate change indicators include temperature, precipitation, sea level, and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

EPA's Climate Change Indicators in the United States (PDF) (80 pp, 13.3MB) report will help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change. The report presents 24 indicators, each describing trends related to the causes and effects of climate change. It focuses primarily on the United States, but in some cases global trends are presented to provide context or a basis for comparison. EPA will use these indicators to examine long-term data sets to:

Track the effects/impacts of climate change in the United States
Assist decision–makers on how to best use policymaking and program resources to respond to climate change
Assist EPA and its constituents in evaluating the success of their climate change efforts
Quoting Patrap:


I wish Texas could have some of the rain we have had here in Tennessee. And this could be very interesting with all that moisture building in the gulf.
Wat do u know i got here by myself lol.

Australian Goverment BOM forecasts 95P to move in general ESE to SE dorection in the next 4 days, maybe fluctuating between 996-992mb.
Here's the NOLA Long Range Disco hydrus





Long term...
..Saturday through Wednesday...
Checking the old memory and last week European model (ecmwf) runs initially held
back a trough north and west of the lower Mississippi with
southwest moist flow for the upcoming weekend. However...GFS and European model (ecmwf)
both switched places with solutions at times...but latest runs are in
some agreement with some closed low over the middle Mississippi with
associated axis extending west over the Saturday into Sunday. West
flow on the south side will entrain dry and tightened the moisture
axis from the central Texas coast across Louisiana to central
Tennessee by Saturday. This axis will sag east late Saturday. As a
result...precipitable water values will increase up to 1.7 inches
across central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi late Saturday.
Instability will be marginally and wind profiles will remain less
conducive for intense storms. However...wind flow aloft and slow
progress of the moisture field may lead to training of rain areas
Saturday into Sunday across the region. Some uncertainty exist with with
locations of the moisture axis and for now will increase
precipitation amounts up to an inch in the grids over the weekend.
Density of the associated will slowly push the frontal boundary
through the forecast area Sunday. However...moist southwest flow
will maintain a rain threat Sunday night into Monday but low end
chance will remain. Dry condition may return briefly next Tuesday and
Wednesday.
"Earth's Cloudy Past Could Reveal Exoplanet Details."

Link
I personally don't use the phrase "global warming", I prefer "climate change". All I can say is that there is cernatinly something different about the weather over the last decade. It ain't like it used to be (btw, we had 155mm of rain this past week), and we have had two days reaching 30C( 86F) so far this summer, while other places also try to understand what has happened to their weather - floods, cyclones, drought etc. Of course the sceptics will claim it's all normal. I guess if you came down in the last shower, it may well seem that way.

Btw, I used to be a skeptic, but after the non-summer we have had here and the non-winter you have had there, something is causing this, and that something is called, Climate Change.

Good night all. Stay safe, stay well.
Quoting Patrap:


Nothing moving really fast either. Cant wait to see how the next significant low affects the south. It looks like it will be very wet, fairly large and moving north into some cold air. Bottom line, we have some strange weather coming to us for early February. Latest GFS. 168 hours..
Quoting AussieStorm:
I personally don't use the phrase "global warming", I prefer "climate change". All I can say is that there is cernatinly something different about the weather over the last decade. It ain't like it used to be (btw, we had 155mm of rain this past week), and we have had two days reaching 30C( 86F) so far this summer, while other places also try to understand what has happened to their weather - floods, cyclones, drought etc. Of course the sceptics will claim it's all normal. I guess if you came down in the last shower, it may well seem that way.

Btw, I used to be a skeptic, but after the non-summer we have had here and the non-winter you have had there, something is causing this, and that something is called, Climate Change.

Good night all. Stay safe, stay well.


climate change is a bit more logical then gw...just a bit tho, lol xD
Anyone else see the groundhog waving on wundergrounds homepage? top right corner, nice touch.
Papua New Guinea Ferry Sinking: Rescuers Pluck Over 200 Survivors From Sea




PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea — Rescuers plucked more than 230 survivors from the sea off Papua New Guinea's east coast after a ferry sank Thursday with as many as 350 people on board, officials said.

An airplane from Australia, three helicopters and eight ships scoured the area after the MV Rabaul Queen went down while traveling from Kimbe on the island of New Britain to the coastal city of Lae on the main island, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said.

The ferry sank 50 miles (80 kilometers) east of Lae, the South Pacific country's second-largest city, and 10 miles (16 kilometers) from shore, it said in a statement.

Australian Broadcasting Corp. quoted police in Kimbe as saying that most of the passengers were students and trainee teachers.

An official at the scene said the ferry capsized in rough seas and sank four hours later, Papua New Guinea's Post-Courier newspaper reported.

National Weather Service chief Sam Maiha said shipping agencies had been warned to keep ships moored this week because of strong winds, the newspaper said.

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O'Neill said the cause of the accident was unknown, but acknowledged that safety in the shipping industry was lax.

"We need to bring some safety measures back into this industry," O'Neill told reporters.

He said more than 300 people were aboard the ship, although the precise number had not been confirmed.

An Australian search and rescue airplane based in the northern city of Cairns reached the scene by afternoon and two other Australian airplanes were on their way.

Australian Maritime Safety Authority spokeswoman Carly Lusk said the crew of the first plane threw several life rafts to survivors in the water. She said 238 survivors had been recovered by late in the day.

She said 350 people were believed to be on board the ferry, but Papua New Guinea's National Maritime Safety Authority said the figure was likely lower.

"I cannot confirm or deny the 350 missing number. It is hearsay," said Captain Nurur Rahman, the authority's rescue coordinator. "I have not seen the manifest as yet, but it is likely around 300."

Rahman said the search would likely be suspended until dawn Friday due to rough weather.

He said there had been no reports of bodies being found and that he remained hopeful of finding more survivors in the tropical waters.

"I'm always hopeful," he said. "People have survived up to two days in these waters."

Most of the survivors were uninjured, although one had a dislocated shoulder, he said.

Ship operator Star Ships could not immediately be contacted for comment.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I personally don't use the phrase "global warming", I prefer "climate change". All I can say is that there is cernatinly something different about the weather over the last decade. It ain't like it used to be (btw, we had 155mm of rain this past week), and we have had two days reaching 30C( 86F) so far this summer, while other places also try to understand what has happened to their weather - floods, cyclones, drought etc. Of course the sceptics will claim it's all normal. I guess if you came down in the last shower, it may well seem that way.

Btw, I used to be a skeptic, but after the non-summer we have had here and the non-winter you have had there, something is causing this, and that something is called, Climate Change.

Good night all. Stay safe, stay well.
later aussie i like to refer to it as climate shift as in the shifting of climate zones
Quoting AussieStorm:
I personally don't use the phrase "global warming", I prefer "climate change". All I can say is that there is cernatinly something different about the weather over the last decade. It ain't like it used to be (btw, we had 155mm of rain this past week), and we have had two days reaching 30C( 86F) so far this summer, while other places also try to understand what has happened to their weather - floods, cyclones, drought etc. Of course the sceptics will claim it's all normal. I guess if you came down in the last shower, it may well seem that way.

Btw, I used to be a skeptic, but after the non-summer we have had here and the non-winter you have had there, something is causing this, and that something is called, Climate Change.

Good night all. Stay safe, stay well.


I also prefer climate change as well. However, the climate is always changing and we can't take a very short sample of time and say that our climate is and will continue to move to one extreme.
you know the groundhog dont mean hardly anything really....cuz whatever does happen, winter is officially in effect for 6 more weeks anyway. More of a thing to entertain children:D
good greif....Would you beeive some dumb scientist perfers SUGAR, to be in the same rank as alcohol and tobacco? oh boy...
Quoting AussieStorm:
I personally don't use the phrase "global warming", I prefer "climate change". All I can say is that there is cernatinly something different about the weather over the last decade. It ain't like it used to be (btw, we had 155mm of rain this past week), and we have had two days reaching 30C( 86F) so far this summer, while other places also try to understand what has happened to their weather - floods, cyclones, drought etc. Of course the sceptics will claim it's all normal. I guess if you came down in the last shower, it may well seem that way.

Btw, I used to be a skeptic, but after the non-summer we have had here and the non-winter you have had there, something is causing this, and that something is called, Climate Change.

Good night all. Stay safe, stay well.
your articulation is fair, but i would modify the notion to say that climate change is occurring due to warming on a global scale. climatology is a study that operates on scales compounding those scales of meteorology, over space and time... but personal observations of climate changing(shifting), the destabilizing of norms per localities, is a result of a warming mechanism on a global scale. this mechanism is felt locally as extremes, whether hot or cold, but a global picture illustrates such local phenomena are indeed being driven by rising temperatures.

my statement above has nothing to do with the driving mechanisms of the warming, mind you. i just don't think there is any reasonable argument over observed warming, and it's impact on climate destabilization from historically the observed norms. *however, it does seem apparent that CO2 concentrations merit our immediate attention per causation, from what we know of chemistry and geological evidence.

Conclusion: global warming is causing the climate change. you may call it one or the other for whatever political reason, and while many still argue about Why there is warming, it just seems apparent that globally it Is warming.
Quoting SPLbeater:
good greif....Would you beeive some dumb scientist perfers SUGAR, to be in the same rank as alcohol and tobacco? oh boy...
yes i heard that on the news today, its poison they say, damn i should have been dead 50 years ago if what they say is true
Quoting hydrus:
I wish Texas could have some of the rain we have had here in Tennessee. And this could be very interesting with all that moisture building in the gulf.
Hey Hydrus.. most the storms missed us last night.. how was it at your place?? I don't think we got more than .1 precip..
Quoting LargoFl:
be careful up there, heed your local warnings


Im in NOLA, that FEMA release is for the Damage caused by the Alabama nadoes last week,
Quoting Patrap:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange

Climate Change Indicators in the United States

EPA's Climate Change Indicators in the United States (PDF) (80 pp, 13.3MB) report will help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change....

Why am I not excited that the EPA is gonna help us all understand climate change :/
Greetings.
Still getting showers here at 11n 61w (Trinidad). It's usually real dry by Feb.
Good strong easterlies and great visibility these days.
Much cooler too, in the low 80's max, down to about 72 at night.
"Feels" like the dry-season is about to start. The wind is drying the ground out fast.

Nice weather!
Thought I'd share these beautiful timelapse videos of a particular red and vivid Aurora Australis last month:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Thought I'd share these beautiful timelapse videos of a particular red and vivid Aurora Australis last month:


Fantastic!

Anyone seen these papers?

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011J HM1351.1

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81 /pdf

Stuart Staniford discusses the above papers here:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/01/another-ter rifying-drought-paper.html
and here:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/10/future-of-d rought-series.html

Peak oil analysts are shifting to climate analysis which is meaningful by itself.

http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i heard that on the news today, its poison they say, damn i should have been dead 50 years ago if what they say is true


i think they have too much time on their hands lol...pretty soon they gon say all food has something bad in it..
Subject: Soliciting Public Comments on Modification of Product
Dissemination Time of Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecast (HWRF) System Products through March 9, 2012

NCEP is proposing to upgrade the Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecast (HWRF) modeling system in May 2012. This upgrade would
result in HWRF products being distributed to the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) and to the public up to 20 minutes later
than the current distribution time. The NWS is seeking comments
on this proposed upgrade and resultant distribution schedule
change by March 9, 2012.

The proposed upgrades to the HWRF modeling system would be:

- Inclusion of a very high-resolution storm-following third nest
operating at 3 km horizontal resolution within a 9 km
intermediate domain and 27 km outer domain
- A centroid-based nest motion algorithm for accurate storm
tracking
- Improved vortex initialization applicable for 3 km horizontal
resolution and upgraded GSI
- Improved PBL, convection and microphysics parameterizations
- Improved synthetic satellite products for GOES and microwave
imagers
- A very high temporal resolution tracker product

The benefits to the user community would be improved hurricane
track, intensity and structure prediction.

The delayed delivery time would affect all HWRF products
distributed through NOAAPORT, the NWS ftp server and the NCEP
ftp/http server.

More details about the HWRF are available at:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/


At the close of the public comment period, NWS will evaluate the
comments to determine whether to proceed with this upgrade to the
HWRF as planned. If a decision is made to move forward, a
Technical Information Notice will be issued containing the
implementation date and more details about the upgrade and
resultant product delays.

Please send comments on this proposal to:

Vijay Tallapragada
Hurricane Team Leader
NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
301-763-8000 x7232
Vijay.Tallapragada@noaa.gov

Quoting SPLbeater:


i think they have too much time on their hands lol...pretty soon they gon say all food has something bad in it..


it already does hows that for ya if we kill the planet earth we in fact kill ourselves and thats in our nature to do so as well

water the simplest of all resources continually recycled since the dawn of time every specis thats ever lived on earth has drank from the same water

there is a whole lot more that meets thee eye
Can any one post Current SST's vs Last years Same Date?Not sure where to find them

Mahalo in advance! 
Quoting NoNamePub:
Can any one post Current SST's vs Last years Same Date?Not sure where to find them

Mahalo in advance! 


current SST's are on the main page of the tropical section of wunderground...not sure where last years at tho:D
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Subject: Soliciting Public Comments on Modification of Product
Dissemination Time of Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecast (HWRF) System Products through March 9, 2012

NCEP is proposing to upgrade the Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecast (HWRF) modeling system in May 2012. This upgrade would
result in HWRF products being distributed to the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) and to the public up to 20 minutes later
than the current distribution time. The NWS is seeking comments
on this proposed upgrade and resultant distribution schedule
change by March 9, 2012.

The proposed upgrades to the HWRF modeling system would be:

- Inclusion of a very high-resolution storm-following third nest
operating at 3 km horizontal resolution within a 9 km
intermediate domain and 27 km outer domain
- A centroid-based nest motion algorithm for accurate storm
tracking
- Improved vortex initialization applicable for 3 km horizontal
resolution and upgraded GSI
- Improved PBL, convection and microphysics parameterizations
- Improved synthetic satellite products for GOES and microwave
imagers
- A very high temporal resolution tracker product

The benefits to the user community would be improved hurricane
track, intensity and structure prediction.

The delayed delivery time would affect all HWRF products
distributed through NOAAPORT, the NWS ftp server and the NCEP
ftp/http server.

More details about the HWRF are available at:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/


At the close of the public comment period, NWS will evaluate the
comments to determine whether to proceed with this upgrade to the
HWRF as planned. If a decision is made to move forward, a
Technical Information Notice will be issued containing the
implementation date and more details about the upgrade and
resultant product delays.

Please send comments on this proposal to:

Vijay Tallapragada
Hurricane Team Leader
NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
301-763-8000 x7232
Vijay.Tallapragada@noaa.gov



Do you have the link to that text? Thanks in advance.
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it already does hows that for ya if we kill the planet earth we in fact kill ourselves and thats in our nature to do so as well

water the simplest of all resources continually recycled since the dawn of time every specis thats ever lived on earth has drank from the same water

polluted water + polluted air + polluted soil = time to find a suitable planet
Quoting Balwanz:
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.
feel free to wu mail the Dr. directly with this kinda stuff... under his picture to the right of the blog is a "Contact the Author" link..

Quoting NoNamePub:
Can any one post Current SST's vs Last years Same Date?Not sure where to find them

Mahalo in advance! 
Link NOAA has this tool.. I have never used it but it looks like it may do the trick




The makings of an Early Season and possibly a very tough season!
Just thought I'd throw this in, Dr. Masters got a quote in the AP today! :)

Where's the snow? Not in Lower 48, but elsewhere
By SETH BORENSTEIN | Associated Press – 6 hrs ago


Link

"We've just had a remarkable run of unusual winters in the past six years globally," said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Mich. "I have to say that winter hasn't really hit yet. Certainly not where I live."


Shear has been running thus far above Average according to this
Hi Everyone they should have brought the Groundhog to Belize . We have not seen the sun in days the warm ocean temps are still giving us plenty of moister .
Quoting NoNamePub:
Can any one post Current SST's vs Last years Same Date?Not sure where to find them

Mahalo in advance! 



Use this Link easily best way to do it.
Quoting Balwanz:
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.


This is a joke right????
Quoting JNCali:
Hey Hydrus.. most the storms missed us last night.. how was it at your place?? I don't think we got more than .1 precip..
We had a quarter inch and some thunder..We have another soaker coming this weekend..After that, we have the system in the gulf to watch. It may go south of us. to early to tell GFS 168 hours..
Quoting Patrap:

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential




GFS is hinting on a low forming east of Belize do you think this could produce a lot more rain for us .
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to that text? Thanks in advance.


Link


You may have to click through "Current Version/Previous Version", when they add another it gets moved down the queue.
Quoting NEwxguy:


This is a joke right????



Its like referencing New England is gonna win the Super Bowl....NOT....LOL
Plenty of moisture here... And it reaches deep into the Caribbean,,,
Quoting Balwanz:
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.
You almost had me. For a moment there, I thought you might be serious. Thanks for the laugh! ;-)
Quoting Balwanz:
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.

If you have a total of 50?
"1" is above relevant to the normally accepted orientation of the perceived globe of the world.
"48" are normally seen to be below the "1"
Just for good measure there can also be the "1" to the west.
I apologize if Ive missed any I'm from the European "27"
Quoting TampaSpin:



Its like referencing New England is gonna win the Super Bowl....NOT....LOL


Ouch!!!!
Quoting NEwxguy:


Ouch!!!!


Thought that might get a response......HEY BROTHER! You ready for the big game....You having a party?
It is currently 72 °F under abundant sunshine with gusty winds.

This is April weather.
Ravenel Bridge in Charleston shut down 'cause some idiot is threatening to blow it up
the alleged bomb is in the white SUV


Well this can't be possible can it?
my business partner is stuck on the bridge...he just called me to see what's happening..."well, James....you might want to get right with Jesus..."
Maybe it's just a "Glitter Bomb?"
Quoting presslord:
my business partner is stuck on the bridge...he just called me to see what's happening..."well, James....you might want to get right with Jesus..."


That is messed up....what the heck is wrong with trying to hurt so many. Screw yourself up ....go ahead but, leave others alone.
Portlight awarded Reeve Foundation Quality of Life Grant


Many thanks to the Christopher Reeve Foundation for their continued support of Portlight.

They do much good for many Groups who strive to improve the Human Condition, Globally.

Quoting TampaSpin:


That is messed up....what the heck is wrong with trying to hurt so many. Screw yourself up ....go ahead but, leave others alone.


yea....if he wants to end it all...he shoulda just jumped...
Quoting Patrap:
Portlight awarded Reeve Foundation Quality of Life Grant


Many thanks to the Christopher Reeve Foundation for their continued support of Portlight.

They do much good for many Groups who strive to improve the Human Condition, Globally.

That is awesome Pat..Great foundation indeed...Christopher Reeve was a real life hero to many people including myself. President Reagan talking with Christopher Reeve and Frank Gifford during a reception and picnic in honor of the 15th Anniversary of the Special Olympics program in the Diplomatic Reception room.
Date

12 June 1983
Ravenel Bridge camLink camera # 68
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thought that might get a response......HEY BROTHER! You ready for the big game....You having a party?


Yeh,got a big party set.We're the only part of the country rooting for them,and pretty much everybody is picking the Giants.Should be a great game no matter what happens.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
I bet that person is probably a disgruntled banned troll from this blog.
#75. hydrus

They certainly are fine folks for sure. This is our 3rd year now with their support.

In April 2010 we had a 1 day Conference here for their Paralysis Resource Center.

Presslord came down for that as well.


It is with support from them, supportive donor's and the wunderground, plus our Dozens of dedicated Volunteer's that has allowed Portlight to make a difference from Haiti to Samoa to Tuscaloosa.

People Helping People is a WUnderful thing.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
I bet that person is probably a disgruntled banned troll from this blog.


WOW!!!
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
355 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

VALID 00Z FRI FEB 3 2012 - 00Z SUN FEB 5 2012

...MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
U.S. INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...RAIN...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...

PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL SAW HIS SHADOW THURSDAY MORNING...MEANING SIX
MORE WEEKS OF WINTER ACCORDING TO THAT PREDICTION. REGARDING THE
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THIS PREDICTION WILL HOLD TRUE AS A MAJOR WINTER STORM
IS EXPECTED. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT
WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF WEATHER TYPES TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL INGEST MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...COLDER
AIR FROM CANADA WILL TRAVEL DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR MOST
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
SPREADS EAST TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST EIGHT INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS.

ELSEWHERE...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR THE EAST
COAST...ALBEIT COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
OUT WEST...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GOVERN THE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

D. HAMRICK
Finally a chance for snow!!


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AND
TRACK EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SIGNFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH. EITHER
TRACK WILL IMPACT WEATHER IN THE CWFA TO VARYING DEGREES.

A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GREATER IMPACTS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH EITHER A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OUT WEST POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW

ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN DURING MONDAY WITH A BRIEF
MODERATION TREND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE AND BENIGN WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TO MAKE A
COMEBACK WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
STAY
TUNED.
Quoting Patrap:
#75. hydrus

They certainly are fine folks for sure. This is our 3rd year now with their support.

In April 2010 we had a 1 day Conference here for their Paralysis Resource Center.

Presslord came down for that as well.


It is with support from them, supportive donor's and the wunderground, plus our Dozens of dedicated Volunteer's that has allowed Portlight to make a difference from Haiti to Samoa to Tuscaloosa.

People Helping People is a WUnderful thing.

I hope there are not to many disasters this year. We have been through so many Pat. I dont mind saying that a few of them tired me out..Storm is winding up.
Quoting hydrus:
I hope there are not to many disasters this year. We have been through so many Pat. I dont mind saying that a few of them tired me out..Storm is winding up.


Stress can be rough after a Disaster for many.
Quoting Balwanz:
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.
What a great way to start off the day on the blog! Never laughed so hard in my life.
A Basic Question.
With the absence of of the symptoms of winter in the {Lower 48,} the burning question and it might end up as literally that in some cases, though all hope not, is this?
What are going to be the downsides to this? Is there going to be a large amounts of projected droughts,dust storms and fires? Are there going to be water shortages on unprecedented levels. Will this lead to more financial disasters?
Although there are still quite a few weeks to run of "winter" if spring arrives without it then surly this in itself must be a good subject for a whole blog!
I can see the upside of pleasant warm days and lower heating bills etc but there must be a sinister down side to all this. A few blogs ago there was the subject of the billion dollar disasters, some of the winter sports and outdoor activities must really be in the doldrums this winter as well.
the Ravenel Bridge guy keeps ramming his SUV into the side of the bridge....
OK...this is great....a bunch of cruise ship passengers went out to visit Boone Hall....and now they can't get back to the ship....and it's gonna sail this evening....I don't understand not taking this guy out


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022144Z - 022345Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00-01Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...A WINDOW WILL EXIST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23-00Z.

WV AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER JET STREAK FROM SRN AZ
THROUGH SRN AND ERN NM WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN ROCKIES. MID-UPPER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE AND WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PROMOTING
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN INTO THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES. THIS AREA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS W-CNTRL AND WRN TX...AND AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LLJ IS STRENGTHENING OVER WRN TX WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD DESTABILIZATION. STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND WRN OK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES NWD WITH TIME. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS. A WINDOW MAY
EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AND BEFORE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2012
Quoting Balwanz:
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.
It is an old phrase dating back to when Alaska became the 49th state. The other states were South of Alaska on the map hence "the lower 48".

To categorize it as insulting is a big reach and nitpicky in the extreme. Oh wait, I'm in the comment section of a blog - carry on.


ETA - And apparently I took snark for serious. My snark sense appears to be out of practice.
95. N3EG
Quoting Balwanz:
I don't expect this to be posted, it's for the author, not the general blogosphere. When I come across reference to the lower 48 states, I am informed that the writer is ignorant and read no farther. This community of states may be referenced as the 48 or the contiguous states, but when there is a lower 48, there is of necessity an upper 48. Where is this?
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.


East and West Dakota are in the upper 48 states.
delete duplicate
80 degrees
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yeh,got a big party set.We're the only part of the country rooting for them,and pretty much everybody is picking the Giants.Should be a great game no matter what happens.


Here in Indianapolis, the weather is great 52 degrees, sunny, Sunday, rain 47 degrees, but wow can't ask for better weather, 50k people each night downtown Indy, I was down the other nite, NFL experience really neat, I bet the Superbowl will come back to Indy, we know how to throw a party! :)
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yeh,got a big party set.We're the only part of the country rooting for them,and pretty much everybody is picking the Giants.Should be a great game no matter what happens.


I'm a Jets fan, and I will never ever ever ever ever ever root for the Patsies to win a football game ever, not even for a million dollars!!!!!!

Let's Go Giants!!!!
Quoting presslord:
OK...this is great....a bunch of cruise ship passengers went out to visit Boone Hall....and now they can't get back to the ship....and it's gonna sail this evening....I don't understand not taking this guy out



Yeah...dont eff with a man's hard earned cruise ship vacation! roflmao!
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Here in Indianapolis, the weather is great 52 degrees, sunny, Sunday, rain 47 degrees, but wow can't ask for better weather, 50k people each night downtown Indy, I was down the other nite, NFL experience really neat, I bet the Superbowl will come back to Indy, we know how to throw a party! :)


reporters and visitors to your city have nothing but great things to say about your city and the people. Great job and loud applause for the city of Indianapolis.
they just took him out
Quoting presslord:
the Ravenel Bridge guy keeps ramming his SUV into the side of the bridge....
why is he doing that do ya think hes upset about something maybe a total break down a man at the end of his rope maybe
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why is he doing that do ya think hes upset about something maybe a total break down a man at the end of his rope maybe


he probably heard someone reference "the Carolinas"...and just lost it...
Quoting presslord:


he probably heard someone reference "the Carolinas"...and just lost it...
maybe,one never really knows. except the one that takes that coarse of action.
Quoting presslord:


he probably heard someone reference "the Carolinas"...and just lost it...
The jet digging in near the Carolina,s and the N.E. quadrant. Might get cold for ya Press..
Quoting hydrus:
The jet digging in near the Carolina,s and the N.E. quadrant. Might get cold for ya Press..
a little sloppy with thunder bolts and such
How do I get one of those sweet t-shirts?
Short hello from Germany. Dr. Masters asks above "What winter?" Well, winter emigrated to old Europe and is going to stay at least for another week. But no snow in my region (different thing in southern Europe). Bad thing for unprotected and poor people, especially in the East and South.

Read more:
Cold snap claims 160 lives across Europe
A cold snap in Europe has led to the deaths of 160 people as countries from Italy to Ukraine struggle to cope with plummeting temperatures.
Updated: 22:26, Thursday, 2 February 2012



Temperature right now in Germany (Celsius)
www.wetteronline.de


Larger Image

Hubble Zooms in on a Magnified Galaxy


Thanks to the presence of a natural "zoom lens" in space, NASA's Hubble Space Telescope got a uniquely close-up look at the brightest "magnified" galaxy yet discovered.

This observation provides a unique opportunity to study the physical properties of a galaxy vigorously forming stars when the universe was only one-third its present age.
A nasty GOM with that flow Gro..

Always be careful to trust in weather!

From Spiegel Online (you know in Germany the names of future highs and lows can be ordered by people):
Marketing Mishap
European Cold Front 'Cooper' Sponsored by Mini
Dozens of people have been killed so far as a high pressure system from Siberia holds much of Europe in its icy grip. The cold front has been named "Cooper" in Germany, after the Mini Cooper compact. The company's advertising agency having paid 299 euros to sponsor it.
More

And, btw, hi Grothar and Pat!
Europe really taking a Brutal Blow from Winter with "Cooper".

Hello barbamz.
Uploaded by mayanmanifestor on Jan 31, 2012

Dozens Die in European Winter

It may not have felt very cold in most of the U.S., but in Central and Eastern Europe a brutal cold snap has killed at least 48 people so far. Ukrainian authorities say 30 people have died of hypothermia in recent days alone. Temperatures in Kiev are 10 below zero Fahrenheit and are projected to be about two below in Moscow today. It's normally about 18 degrees in Moscow at this time of year. In Prague, where the cold has also damaged train tracks, authorities are setting up tents for an estimated 3,000 homeless people.



18Z GFS has a fairly intense tropical/subtropical entity in the GOM next Thursday.
Quoting Patrap:
Europe really taking a Brutal Blow from Winter with "Cooper".

Hello barbamz.


Yeah, and you're already going to reopen the hurricane season in the GOM? At least some nice rain, especially for Texas, as much as I can see.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


18Z GFS has a fairly intense tropical/subtropical entity in the GOM next Thursday.


So the models still support the system (possible Alberto)? Chances of development could rise to .01% if they still support it on Saturday...
Depth and breadth of the 26C Thermoline


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential




Quoting barbamz:
Always be careful to trust in weather!

From Spiegel Online (you know in Germany the names of future highs and lows can be ordered by people):
Marketing Mishap
European Cold Front 'Cooper' Sponsored by Mini
Dozens of people have been killed so far as a high pressure system from Siberia holds much of Europe in its icy grip. The cold front has been named "Cooper" in Germany, after the Mini Cooper compact. The company's advertising agency having paid 299 euros to sponsor it.
More

And, btw, hi Grothar and Pat!


Hey barb. Stay warm!
Nice sunset on the traffic cam. Glad the bridge didn't blow up.
This is awesome, yet the noise they make is actually slightly unnerving.


Quoting Grothar:


Hey barb. Stay warm!


I try to do so, Gro. Til now I'm fine. But the next week I'm going to the Alpes for some cross-country skiing. I hope the cold will be gone by then, otherwise I'll be glued to the ground with my ski, lol.

Last link to some more cruelties (Reuters) and good night! Barb

Villagers scramble for fuel in Europe's big chill

Quoting NoNamePub:
Can any one post Current SST's vs Last years Same Date?Not sure where to find them

Mahalo in advance! 




Obviously, winter is bound to become somewhat of a novelty as this century wears on. But I still have full faith that this winter will rebound just enough to give the northeast at least one or two more fairly decent snowfalls. I also cling to the belief that not all of the winters in the next few years will be this miserable.

thanks, for the update... counting on that GFS cold snap as we head into the latter part of February/March

clarification: miserable = little/no snow.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a little sloppy with thunder bolts and such
I,ll work on it Keep. The gulf is lookin a bit unsettled. There is a small low moving of of Mexico into the gulf. It will be neat to see how it interacts with all that moisture. Please post or link some more forecast models if possible... South Indian Ocean lookin agitated.
O I forgot, last thing I originally wanted to share. You know we've got a population of already thousands of parakeets (ring-necked parrots) in the wildlife near Rhine River? They manage to survive because of the usually mild climate (and moreover, GW) and can handle even some cold days in winter. This week a parakeet was found on the balcony in my neighborhood, obviously injured. The bird (a female, therefore without ring around the neck) stayed the night in the livingroom under the heater. She's got a very healthy appetite, so she recovered somehow. Next day we took her to the animal shelter. Probably the best for her in respect to the forthcoming even colder nights!


The wild parrot on an adjacent balcony

Ring-necked parrots take over Germany and southern England
Quoting barbamz:
O I forgot, last thing I originally wanted to share. You know we've got a population of already thousands of parakeets (ring-necked parrots) in the wildlife near Rhine River? They manage to survive because of the usually mild climate (and moreover, GW) and can handle even some cold days in winter. This week a parakeet was found on the balcony in my neighborhood, obviously injured. The bird (a female, therefore without ring around the neck) stayed the night in the livingroom under the heater. She's got a very healthy appetite, so she recovered somehow. Next day we took her to the animal shelter. Probably the best for her in respect to the forthcoming even colder nights!


The wild parrot on a adjacent balcony

Ring-necked parrots take over Germany and southern England
She looks pretty.
Tell ya what, if this comes to fruition, we will have another one for the record books...Latest GFS run 168 hours..
Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what, if this comes to fruition, we will have another one for the record books...Latest GFS run 168 hours..
Looks more like June.I would love to track a tropical cyclone in Feb.That would be sweet!.So if the rest of the season turns out to be a bust I can at least have something to be happy for.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Obviously, winter is bound to become somewhat of a novelty as this century wears on. But I still have full faith that this winter will rebound just enough to give the northeast at least one or two more fairly decent snowfalls. I also cling to the belief that not all of the winters in the next few years will be this miserable.

thanks, for the update... counting on that GFS cold snap as we head into the latter part of February/March

clarification: miserable = little/no snow.


This is the same kind of thing that was said 5 years ago. Then we had back to back winters that featured "Snowmageddon" and the "Snowpocalypse".
We have a neutral NAO...


and a positive PNA for some time now...

Yet the east has a nice warm febuary beginning. lol...
Effective Storm Relatively Helicity maxes out around 400j/kg. I've seen this used in High risk areas before, and what this means is that we'll be seeing quite a few tornadoes across the Texas panhandle and western Texas tonight. Effective Bulk Shear is between 200-400, which is also very strong.

Supercells and tornadoes are favored tonight, more so possibly than originally thought.
It's not "here ye, here ye!"- it's "hear ye, hear ye." Before people could post to Facebook and twitter and before they could even pass on news by phone there was the town crier who would draw attention to announcements with "hear ye!" in other words "listen up"- or in modern terms "you have a new message" :-)
Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what, if this comes to fruition, we will have another one for the record books...Latest GFS run 168 hours..




T.S. Lee part 2.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




T.S. Lee part 2.


i think we should name it corky...not alberto xD
back l8r
Astronomers find another Goldilocks planet:
Jackpot: astronomers tag Goldilocks planet


Also, is that a TS in the GFS?
Quoting WxGeekVA:




T.S. Lee part 2.
Oh no it's the ghost of Lee!!!!.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh no it's rhe ghost of Lee!!!!.

*the
The euro still insists that cold air is on the way...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh no it's rhe ghost of Lee!!!!.
I thought T.S.Karen was back.
145. MTWX
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Kepler seems to be very efficient at it's job, 2nd Goldilocks planet in less than 2 months:
Jackpot: astronomers tag Goldilocks planet


Also, is that a TS in the GFS?

Kepler isn't the one that found this one, it looks quite a bit further out. This was discovered by land based sites. And yes, the GFS is looking at spinning up a storm in the gulf... How's the weather been down there??
Quoting MTWX:

Kepler isn't the one that found this one, it looks quite a bit further out. This was discovered by land based sites. And yes, the GFS is looking at spinning up a storm in the gulf... How's the weather been down there??

OOPS! I'll modify my comment.
Weather's been rainy, breezy with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

*the
I don't have mah glasses on.So I may miss a few words.I'm almost bling.I'm use to the strong presription in my glasses.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't have mah glasses on.So I may miss a few words.I'm almost bling.I'm use to the strong presription in my glasses.

Good to know. I didn't know you wore glasses!
Quoting Patrap:
Depth and breadth of the 26C Thermoline


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential





Quoting biloxibob:




Your Comment:



Rich TextQ uoting Patrap:
Depth and breadth of the 26C Thermoline


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential



/ >




 



Submit Cancel




Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Good to know. I didn't know you wore glasses!
I had to let my glasses soak in some hot water real quick.They had spots on em.
Supposed to get a foot or two of snow, but nothing yet. Hopefully the roads wont be too bad tomorrow.
Quoting biloxibob:


You have a glitch in your post...
Atlantic SST's...

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Sea Surface Anomalies

Note the Cutoff Eddy Ring in the Western GOM and its size this Winter





..compared to last year at this time.


Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what, if this comes to fruition, we will have another one for the record books...Latest GFS run 168 hours..


if it does develop, you need to get credit for catching it and following it...Do you own stock in this thing?
Moss in Audubon Park Yesterday afternoon, near the Zoo.

The Grass on the Golf Course has greened there to 70 percent coverage easily the last 3 weeks.

Alexandrine Ring Neck
Quoting barbamz:
O I forgot, last thing I originally wanted to share. You know we've got a population of already thousands of parakeets (ring-necked parrots) in the wildlife near Rhine River? They manage to survive because of the usually mild climate (and moreover, GW) and can handle even some cold days in winter. This week a parakeet was found on the balcony in my neighborhood, obviously injured. The bird (a female, therefore without ring around the neck) stayed the night in the livingroom under the heater. She's got a very healthy appetite, so she recovered somehow. Next day we took her to the animal shelter. Probably the best for her in respect to the forthcoming even colder nights!


The wild parrot on an adjacent balcony

Ring-necked parrots take over Germany and southern England

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


This is the same kind of thing that was said 5 years ago. Then we had back to back winters that featured "Snowmageddon" and the "Snowpocalypse".


Exactly!

And comparing it to the tropics, it's like having 28 named storms in 2005, and then only 10 the following year. The trend may be going one way, but that doesn't mean we still wont have years that fall to the opposite extreme.

Also part of why i just try to brush it off when people complain about no snow this winter and about the point of even having groundhogs day anymore... it's all in the relm of possibility now.
Patrap
It's quiet in here tonight. I have a question for you.
How badly would I get beaten up if I made the following statement? The earth transitioned from a warming phase to a cooling phase in November 2003.
Hard to get thru the server to someone,though some have tried. : )

That's gonna go against all the Data and Physical obs noted for the period you mention.

But hey, present away.

I'm always open to new ideas, data, or theory on most
related topics, as are many others Im' sure.

Dr. Masters usually will chime in on interesting matters. So maybe he will see this and add something as well.

Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
It's quiet in here tonight. I have a question for you.
How badly would I get beaten up if I made the following statement? The earth transitioned from a warming phase to a cooling phase in November 2003.
You won't get "beaten up" at ll--though you might be asked to provide reasoning for your statement, as it goes against all observed science.
Quoting presslord:


if it does develop, you need to get credit for catching it and following it...Do you own stock in this thing?
No, not yet anyway. It should be interesting to watch tho..Models keep flip flopping with some really cold air pour down from extreme northern Canada. If this system were large enough, could cause some severe weather and flooding issues. Hope you are doing well Press..:)
Quoting hydrus:
No, not yet anyway. It should be interesting to watch tho..Models keep flip flopping with some really cold air pour down from extreme northern Canada. If this system were large enough, could cause some severe weather and flooding issues. Hope you are doing well Press..:)


you should blog on this system...would be nice for a tropical blog to read besides my own:)
Hefty cell moving toward NE just north of Barger, TX...
Mexico reeling from climate extremes- millions imperiled by drought and cold
Posted on February 2, 2012
February 2, 2012 – MEXICO CITY — A drought that a government official called the most severe Mexico had ever faced has left two million people without access to water and, coupled with a cold snap, has devastated cropland in nearly half of the country. Reports that the Tarahumara were killing themselves in despair over starvation, later proven false, spurred residents of Mexico City to collect food and clothing donations. The government in the past week has authorized $2.63 billion in aid, including potable water, food and temporary jobs for the most affected areas, rural communities in 19 of Mexico’s 31 states. But officials warned that no serious relief was expected for at least another five months, when the rainy season typically begins in earnest. While the authorities say they expect the situation to worsen, one of the five worst-affected states, Zacatecas, got a reprieve on Sunday. Heriberto Félix Guerra, head of the Ministry of Social Development, saw the rain, the first in 17 months, as a guardedly reassuring sign. Among the more seriously affected communities are tribal areas of the Tarahumara indigenous community in the Sierra Madre, in the north. Known for endurance running and self-reliance, the Tarahumara are among Mexico’s poorest citizens.
When false reports of a mass suicide brought on by hunger surfaced recently, journalists and aid organizations poured in to shed light on the situation. “I think it has really become extreme poverty,” says Isaac Oxenhaut, national aid coordinator for the Mexican Red Cross. Mr. Oxenhaut recently visited the Indian communities where, he said, the land was too dry to grow any crops the Tarahumara usually depend on for their livelihood. “They don’t have anywhere to harvest absolutely anything,” he added. Nearly 7 percent of the country’s agricultural land, mostly in the north and center, has suffered total loss, according to Victor Celaya del Toro, director of development studies at the Agriculture Ministry. The drought, which has been compounded by freezing temperatures, has already pushed up the cost of some produce, including corn and beans. The governor of the Central Bank, Agustín Carstens, speaking last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, cautioned that it might cause inflation to rise later this year. But government officials have said they do not expect the price of exports to be affected. Some of the most devastated areas are hard to reach, slowing the flow of aid to a trickle. The Red Cross is sending 70-pound sacks of rice, beans and sugar, as well as winter clothing. “A cargo bus will not fit,” Mr. Oxenhaut said. “You have to do it with four-wheel drives or donkeys, or the people who take it on their backs.” –NY Times


Isolated winter: Western Canada struggling with record snow-fall as rest of country goes dry
Posted on February 2, 2012
February 2, 2012 – CANADA – Snowfall and snow levels are reaching record levels in Alberta and British Columbia in Western Canada. While many other parts of North America are still struggling to fully open all their lifts and runs for winter2011-12 during an unusually dry winter, the West of Canada has been deluged fairly consistently since last autumn. “This month goes down as one of the snowiest January’s on record. There is unbelievable snow conditions at both Fernie and Kicking Horse with total snowfall at both over 19 feet now. Today alone, Fernie has seen over a foot overnight!!” said an excited Matt Mosteller of Resorts of the Canadian Rockies which runs the two centres. Meanwhile a little to the east and north, over the border in Alberta, with over three months left to go in the ski season, Marmot Basin near Jasper has already received over 12 feet (372 cm) of snowfall which is 93% of its annual average. If the next three months produce even typical amounts of snowfall, Marmot Basin will exceed its all time snowfall record of 529 cm set way back in 1965. Regardless of the numbers, skiers and snowboarders have been absolutely thrilled with snow conditions at Marmot Basin and, to some, it has come as a bit of a surprise, says the resort’s Brian Rode. “There is very little snow on the ground in Edmonton and when some people get to the mountain they are really surprised at how much snow we have. Marmot’s base elevation is very high so the rain that has fallen at lower elevations this winter has been all snow at Marmot,” added Rode. –Fast Track Ski


Where’s the snow? Snow has been missing in action for much of the U.S. the last couple months. But it’s not just snow. It’s practically the season that’s gone AWOL. “What winter?” asked Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. For the Lower 48, January was the third-least snowy on record, according to the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University. Records for the amount of ground covered by snow go back to 1967. Last year, more than half the nation was covered in snow as a Groundhog Day blizzard barreled across the country, killing 36 people and causing $1.8 billion in damage. This year, less than a fifth of the country outside of Alaska has snow on the ground. Bismarck, N.D., has had one-fifth its normal snow, Boston a third. Buffalo is three feet below normal for snowfall this year. Midland, Texas, has had more snow this season than Minneapolis or Chicago. Forget snow. For much of the country there’s not even a nip in the air. On Tuesday, the last day in January, all but a handful of states had temperatures in the 50s or higher. In the nation’s capital, where temperatures flirted with the 70s, some cherry trees are already budding — weeks early. For the Northeast it’s one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record, with most of the region’s temperatures the last couple months averaging 5 degrees warmer than normal, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University. –Yahoo News


Prefecture of Japan pleads for help after being hit with record snow-fall
Posted on February 2, 2012
February 2, 2012 – JAPAN – The prefecture of Niigata, Japan, has asked for a dispatch of troops to help in the wake of record-setting snowfalls, according to reports on Wednesday. 3 people have died in the northern part of Japan from avalanches in Akita. The Ground Self-Defense Force of Japan was expected to send troops to the town of Uonuma, where a snow depth of 4.09 meters, or 13.4 feet, has reportedly built up. Fearing roof collapse under the weight of the deep snow, complicated by warming and the potential for rain, the local officials called for the troops to help clear roofs. Niigata is in western Honshu, which winter climate is notorious for its waves of heavy snow off the Sea of Japan during cold outbreaks. Western Honshu is home to some of the highest snowfalls anywhere on earth, even at relatively low elevation, as bitter northwesterly winds out of Siberia and northern China flow across the much warmer Sea of Japan. Uonuma itself is located about 120 miles, or nearly 200 km, northwest of Tokyo which, incidentally, the report also made mention of for its abnormally dry, clear weather this winter. The same weather pattern that delivers heavy snow on the western side of mountainous Honshu normally yields dry, clear weather at Tokyo. -Accuweather
Patrap
I've been working on this about three years. About 3000 hours staring at this computer. Three blind mice, one with no feet left to run. Second keyboard. It was all dead end streets until about 6 months ago. I was sitting here trying to come up with the next street to drive down when the analogy dawned on me. It's simple and can be done in your kitchen. Ingredients: Pot or tea kettle, cooking thermometer, water. A gas stove would be better than an electric because of reaction time.
Simulate the 11 year solar cycle with the heat control on the stove. (I've seen that posted here several times but I don't know where to find it.) You will find that the water temperature will continue to rise well after you have passed your maximum temperature excursion. Once the radiated cooling is more than the amount of heat you are applying, the water will start to cool down.
Does this make sense?
Jesse
Quoting Neapolitan:
You won't get "beaten up" at ll--though you might be asked to provide reasoning for your statement, as it goes against all observed science.

Nea you're right. Check my last comment. No. 173
Jesse
Im more a Baker than a climatologist anyday Jesse, but that a interesting take.

One thing I can relate is like when we hit Dec 21,or the Summer Solstice, we see in Earths temps a seasonal Lag by 40-50 days or more, depending on Latitude.

Here is the NOAA page on indicators with the Solar Cycle graphing and data as well as other.

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
Is it just me, or is the Groundhog in the picture above in front of a shower curtain? Hmmmmm....
Quoting MississippiWx:
Is it just me, or is the Groundhog in the picture above in front of a shower curtain? Hmmmmm....


looks to me like a big blank sheet of blue for photos...like a green screen...but blue :D
Quoting Patrap:
Hard to get thru the server to someone,though some have tried. : )

That's gonna go against all the Data and Physical obs noted for the period you mention.

But hey, present away.

I'm always open to new ideas, data, or theory on most
related topics, as are many others Im' sure.

Dr. Masters usually will chime in on interesting matters. So maybe he will see this and add something as well.

Quoting Patrap:
Here is the NOAA page on indicators with the Solar Cycle graphing and data as well as other.

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
Remember what Theo claimed you said goes against all data and observations, well you may want to have a chat with NOAA as their (blue temperature) graph seems to back him up and not you. Hoisted with your own petard. LOL
Quoting SPLbeater:


you should blog on this system...would be nice for a tropical blog to read besides my own:)
I might one day. I post when I can. I am busy taking care of family and hounds..:)
Patrap
Keep these important facts is mind. I am an older person than you, and I am an Alabama Redneck.
You're right about the lag times, but that was one of the dead end streets I drove down.
Jesse
Quoting nymore:
Remember what Theo claimed you said goes against all data and observations, well you may want to have a chat with NOAA as their (blue temperature) graph seems to back him up and not you. Hoisted with your own petard. LOL


I believe its safe to say that the accuracy of any DATA outside the last 20 years and even the temperatures are believed flawed by many within the last 20 years by relocation's of gauges.
L.A.S.E.R.S. MANIFESTO:
To every man, woman & child we want an end to the We want an end to status symbols dictating our worth as individuals
We want a meaningful and universal education system
We want substance in the place of popularity
We will not compromise who we are to be accepted by the crowd
We want the invisible walls that separate by wealth, We want to think our own thoughts
We will be responsible for our environment
We want clarity & truth from our elected officials or they should move aside
We want love not lies
We want an end to all wars foreign & domestic violence
We want an end to the processed culture of exploitation, over-consumption & waste
We want knowledge, understanding & peace
We will not lose because we are not losers, we are lasers!
Lasers are the opposite of losers
Lasers are shining beams of light that burn through the darkness of ignorance
Lasers shed light on injustice and inequality
Losers stand by and let things happen
Lasers act and shape their own destinies
Lasers find meaning and direction in the mysteries all around them
Lasers stand for love and compassion
Lasers stand for peace
Lasers stand for progression
Lasers are Revolutionary
Lasers are the future


Love Always Shines Every time Remember 2 Smile
-Lupe Fiasco
WTPS21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 145.8E TO 19.5S 154.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA AT 021930Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED 17.1S 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.



Link
Quoting jamesrainier:


Notice the line just barely SSW of Amarillo explode in 15 minutes to a potent line of thunderstorms...
Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
Keep these important facts is mind. I am an older person than you, and I am an Alabama Redneck.
You're right about the lag times, but that was one of the dead end streets I drove down.
Jesse
If you are older than Pat, you have been here a mighty long time..:)....My parents warned me how fast time goes by. They were right.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I believe its safe to say that the accuracy of any DATA outside the last 20 years and even the temperatures are believed flawed by many within the last 20 years by relocation's of gauges.

Tampa
You're right.
I remember many comments you made. It's the sun.
Add water as the storage medium of heat and you have a go.
Jesse
Quoting SPLbeater:


Notice the line just barely SSW of Amarillo explode in 15 minutes to a potent line of thunderstorms...


Yeah, seeing it growing like that was one of the reasons I posted it.
Quoting hydrus:
If you are older than Pat, you have been here a mighty long time..:)....My parents warned me how fast time goes by. They were right.

It is probably safe to say that I am in the Grothar range. haha I am 69 years old.
Jesse
Quoting TheoJesse:

It is probably safe to say that I am in the Grothar range. haha I am 69 years old.
Jesse


Not even close. :)
Quoting TheoJesse:

It is probably safe to say that I am in the Grothar range. haha I am 69 years old.
Jesse
Your the same age as my Dad..He has some cool stories from way back..:)
Quoting Grothar:


Not even close. :)
Good evening ancient one.
Quoting Grothar:


Not even close. :)

Grothar
I had no idea you were ancient.
Jesse
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening ancient one.


Greetings. I see we may some activity in the Gulf. I posted an image earlier.
Quoting TheoJesse:

Grothar
I had no idea you were ancient.
Jesse
Are you kidding.? I was goin easy on him. He was here before everything.....and I mean everything..stars, planets, nova,s
Quoting TheoJesse:

Grothar
I had no idea you were ancient.
Jesse


Theda Bara was my first pinup picture.
Quoting hydrus:
Your the same age as my Dad..He has some cool stories from way back..:)

There are a lot of stories that can be told. The problem is that there is no one around any more to listen.
Jesse
Quoting Grothar:


Greetings. I see we may some activity in the Gulf. I posted an image earlier.
Its messy out there. This will be something to reckon with now, because whatever it does, it will do rather slowly. Plus there are two lows forecast. If I can find the model that shows this I will post it.
Quoting Grothar:


Not even close. :)


Heck NOT EVEN CLOSE......LMAO....hey Groth
Quoting Grothar:


Theda Bara was my first pinup picture.
Something like this?
Cell looks like its rotating south of Tyler

Quoting TheoJesse:

There are a lot of stories that can be told. The problem is that there is no one around any more to listen.
Jesse
Well I happen to be a listener, and a good reader. You post something and I will read it Jess. The CMC wants to pump alot of cold air into the U.S...114 hours.
205. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:
Cell looks like its rotating south of Tyler


Showing slight rotation. Link
Quoting hydrus:
Well I happen to be a listener, and a good reader. You post something and I will read it Jess. The CMC wants to pump alot of cold air into the U.S...114 hours.


GFS the past 2 weeks was showing a major arctic outbreak at this time, and nothing happened
Quoting TheoJesse:

Tampa
You're right.
I remember many comments you made. It's the sun.
Add water as the storage medium of heat and you have a go.
Jesse


Quoting RitaEvac:


GFS the past 2 weeks was showing a major arctic outbreak at this time, and nothing happened
This is true..LOL..I still think the eastern third has a shot...CMC in 90 hours..
Quoting TampaSpin:




I believe the sun controls everything on this planet, hence, weather
Quoting TampaSpin:


Heck NOT EVEN CLOSE......LMAO....hey Groth


Hey, T. Are you behaving or still stirring the old pot? How you doing? Looks like a little weather is headed your way.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



Geoff, get to bed. You have to work early tomorrow.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I believe the sun controls everything on this planet, hence, weather


My belief as well.....If one understands the concept of how heat is stored and released the conclusion it hints. Its not a one year deal but, a combination of many years of stored heat.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, T. Are you behaving or still stirring the old pot? How you doing? Looks like a little weather is headed your way.


Bro, i am getting like you too old to stir. I need an updated electric mixer to do much anymore......LOL
Quoting hydrus:
Its messy out there. This will be something to reckon with now, because whatever it does, it will do rather slowly. Plus there are two lows forecast. If I can find the model that shows this I will post it.


I saw one a few days ago. They have it then drop it then add it again. I know the GFS had one. We really do need the rain.



The GFS continues to show a storm developing in the GOM...HUM! I just don't see it happening with all the shear in place yet!
Quoting TampaSpin:



The GFS continues to show a storm developing in the GOM...HUM! I just don't see it happening with all the shear in place yet!


Actually, I don't see anything happening at all on that map!!!!!!
Quoting Grothar:


I saw one a few days ago. They have it then drop it then add it again. I know the GFS had one. We really do need the rain.


Hey Gro. How ya been. This is after the 2 lows cross the state. The first on over South Florida and the second 2 days later over North Florida.

Quoting emcf30:


Hey Gro. How ya been. This is after the 2 lows cross the state. The first on over South Florida and the second 2 days latter over North Florida.



Hey, emc. Glad to see you. I was trying to find that thing. We really need the rain. Is it still dry by you (And how is everything else????)
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, emc. Glad to see you. I was trying to find that thing. We really need the rain. Is is still dry by you (And how is everything else????)


Everything is decent. Day by day thing but it is getting better. We do need the rain. Fires are starting to creep up in the area now. Last count around me is 27, not counting the controlled burns that are going on causing havoc for everyone
Quoting RitaEvac:


I believe the sun controls everything on this planet, hence, weather

You have a + on that one.
Jesse
Quoting emcf30:


Everything is decent. Day by day thing but it is getting better. We do need the rain. Fires are starting to creep up in the area now. Last count around me is 27, not counting the controlled burns that are going on causing havoc for everyone


I've been watching them closely. I am surprised we haven't had any here yet. As they say in Australia, I have NEVUH seen it so dry down here. I honestly do not remember the last rain we had. (Glad to here everything is OK)
Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
The earth transitioned from a warming phase to a cooling phase in November 2003.


In what regard?

Quoting RitaEvac:


I believe the sun controls everything on this planet, hence, weather


It does... it's not exactly a matter of belief. Is there any earth scientist that you know of that disagrees that virtually all of the energy of the earth's climate system originates with the sun?
Quoting Grothar:


I saw one a few days ago. They have it then drop it then add it again. I know the GFS had one. We really do need the rain.
La-Nina does not allow for much rain in Florida. The exception is during the summer months when the rain machine is cranking.El Nino has the following effects on Florida climate: above average rainfall in the spring. This is followed by wildfire threat when rain dries up. Northern Florida is more susceptible to severe weather; below normal temperatures, increased number of low pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico during the winter, and "almost always" reduces the frequency of storms and hurricanes.

La Nina has the following effects: often dry conditions prevail in late fall, winter and early spring, increased risk of wildfires in spring and summer months, the temperatures average slightly above normal, and the chance of hurricane activity increases substantially.

Long term forecasts are made based on these effects. However, they are easily overridden, in winter, by the Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillations, which can only be predicted about two weeks in advance. These can drop the temperature noticeably from seasonal norms. .I love and miss Florida.. Here is where I came into this world.
Quoting hydrus:
La-Nina does not allow for much rain in Florida. The exception is during the summer months when the rain machine is cranking.El Niño has the following effects on Florida climate: above average rainfall in the spring. This is followed by wildfire threat when rain dries up. Northern Florida is more susceptible to severe weather; below normal temperatures, increased number of low pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico during the winter, and "almost always" reduces the frequency of storms and hurricanes.

La Niña has the following effects: often dry conditions prevail in late fall, winter and early spring, increased risk of wildfires in spring and summer months, the temperatures average slightly above normal, and the chance of hurricane activity increases substantially.

Long term forecasts are made based on these effects. However, they are easily overridden, in winter, by the Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillations, which can only be predicted about two weeks in advance. These can drop the temperature noticeably from seasonal norms. .I love and miss Florida.. Here is where I came into this world.


You were born in a boat?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You were born in a boat?
Mount Sinai Hospital at Miami Beach. I lived on a 1951 Chris*Craft and a 1923 Aldin Schooner for many years. Maybe not born on a boat, but definitely raised on one..:)
Quoting hydrus:
La-Nina does not allow for much rain in Florida. The exception is during the summer months when the rain machine is cranking.El Nino has the following effects on Florida climate: above average rainfall in the spring. This is followed by wildfire threat when rain dries up. Northern Florida is more susceptible to severe weather; below normal temperatures, increased number of low pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico during the winter, and "almost always" reduces the frequency of storms and hurricanes.

La Nina has the following effects: often dry conditions prevail in late fall, winter and early spring, increased risk of wildfires in spring and summer months, the temperatures average slightly above normal, and the chance of hurricane activity increases substantially.

Long term forecasts are made based on these effects. However, they are easily overridden, in winter, by the Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillations, which can only be predicted about two weeks in advance. These can drop the temperature noticeably from seasonal norms. .I love and miss Florida.. Here is where I came into this world.


Whoa! Somebody is really getting good with the weather explanations!! We may have to start calling you Levi Sr. I didn't know you were born in Miami? I knew you were from down here, but I don't remember that. But that doesn't mean much, because I still look for the Jack Benny show on TV sometimes.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You were born in a boat?


Sick minds think alike.
Quoting hydrus:
Mount Sinai Hospital at Miami Beach. I lived on a 1951 Chris*Craft and a 1923 Aldin Schooner for many years. Maybe not born on a boat, but definitely raised on one..:)



LOL.....well guess it was close to being correct....I love our boat...


Quoting Grothar:


Whoa! Somebody is really getting good with the weather explanations!! We may have to start calling you Levi Sr. I didn't know you were born in Miami? I knew you were from down here, but I don't remember that. But that doesn't mean much, because I still look for the Jack Benny show on TV sometimes.
I borrowed most of that from Wiki..:o..But that is o.k. When it comes down to the heavy stuff, this brother can type some excellent weather info for ya..:)
Quoting TampaSpin:



LOL.....well guess it was close to being correct....I love our boat...




Tampa, real men hold catches like by the other end. ... Well, they do so once. ;-)

Nice catch!
Quoting TampaSpin:



LOL.....well guess it was close to being correct....I love our boat...


Boats were the very foundation of our lives back then. We had run abouts, speed boats, sunfishs, flivers and regular fishin boats like the one you showed. We did not own them all. People at the marina had no problem lending them out if you were a live aboard or worked the forklifts or at the gas and bait dock.It was a lot of fun and I miss it.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


In what regard?



It does... it's not exactly a matter of belief. Is there any earth scientist that you know of that disagrees that virtually all of the energy of the earth's climate system originates with the sun?

Scott
I have all the math and a graph developed for this.
The problem is that I have no idea how to post this info.
Quoting Grothar:


Sick minds think alike.
Especially minds that are 100,000 years old....he he
Quoting hydrus:
Especially minds that are 100,000 years old....he he


Hey, Gro! We just got a discount! ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Tampa, real men hold catches like by the other end. ... Well, they do so once. ;-)

Nice catch!


Hehe....You got that right....some would be jumping of a boat bringing that over still kicking too....especially with no shoes on....LOL
240. MTWX
Lovely evening on the Blog! Night all! Nice shark Tampa!
Out, for the night. I enjoyed the conversations. ... Someone keep Grothar in check. I cannot do everything. ;-)




Top one is a black drum while the bottom one is a RED Bull.
I'm out.
Need some sleep.
Jesse
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hey, Gro! We just got a discount! ;-)
Oh no,...Please tell me that your not a trillion years old too..The blog is currently being invaded by beings older than some of the mountain ranges we have on this planet. Its like Rowan and Martin all over again..Jk...really jk...:) pfft..
Quoting TampaSpin:




Top one is a black drum while the bottom one is a RED Bull.
You,ve made me hungry..This blog does this to me quite often.
That line has grown considerably in the past 5 seconds..
Quoting TampaSpin:




Top one is a black drum while the bottom one is a RED Bull.
Nice catch! I love fish. Did you eat it already? :D
Can the US Army accept atheists?

If you look at the first few intro paragraphs, does it remind you of anyone? I find the similarities incredibly similar, and the future looks pretty similar.
The latest Gfs run keeps the gulf low...good night and God bless....zzz
.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 130 AM CST

* AT 1255 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIAMI...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MIAMI...LORA AND
CANADIAN.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (998 hPa) located at 18.5S 169.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization remains poor for the last 12 hours. Convection has not increased much in the past 12 hours. Disturbance lies just to the south of an upper ridge and under the influence of a moderate northwest wind flow aloft. At this stage, the system lies in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and will continue to be steered southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models are moving the system southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
the smoke is heading inland now nice breeze off the ocean. central fl. will have it today
Miami NWS Discussion

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS
WELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE MOSTLY ISOLATED BY SUNDAY BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY INTO MID WEEK AS DEEPER
LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENTER THE REGION THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. OF COURSE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW CONSISTENTLY THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN AND SEE WHAT INFLUENCE IT
HAS ON THE REGION.
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!

Lot's of convection beginning to build in the NW Caribbean close to where the models develope this surface trough.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!

It looks like Mother Nature is preparing the nuclear option on U.S.

She doesn't like to be fooled with, and she may be digging in her high heels.

What better year to show off, than 2012?

The negative AO means in the UK we've gone from the warmest winter to hard frosts in a flash. Normal wet and mild service to be resumed tomorrow after a brief snowfall they say :-( The newspapers warn of the snow but neglect to point out the rapid thaw forecast to follow. Where did Punxutawney Phil's hillock get its name?
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It looks like Mother Nature is preparing the nuclear option on U.S.

She doesn't like to be fooled with, and she may be digging in her high heels.

What better year to show off, than 2012?



Yeah, not good! Look at the 79 temp just east of Melbourne.
Sst are warm now.But it all depends on what happens in the pacific ocean.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!



NHC SST Anomalies only show significant warming off the NE US coast.


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


NHC SST Anomalies only show significant warming off the NE US coast.




I understand that but the last time we had the Gulf this warm in Feb was 2004 & 2005 and we all know what happened those years but like washingtonian115 said it all depends on if we trend toward El-Nino sooner than expected.
Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
I've been working on this about three years. About 3000 hours staring at this computer. Three blind mice, one with no feet left to run. Second keyboard. It was all dead end streets until about 6 months ago. I was sitting here trying to come up with the next street to drive down when the analogy dawned on me. It's simple and can be done in your kitchen. Ingredients: Pot or tea kettle, cooking thermometer, water. A gas stove would be better than an electric because of reaction time.
Simulate the 11 year solar cycle with the heat control on the stove. (I've seen that posted here several times but I don't know where to find it.) You will find that the water temperature will continue to rise well after you have passed your maximum temperature excursion. Once the radiated cooling is more than the amount of heat you are applying, the water will start to cool down.
Does this make sense?
Jesse


The 11 year solar cycle does not appreciably add or remove heat from the system on climate scales. The variance in solar output is quite small.

As far as your experiment goes, the water will heat as long as you apply heat. After you turn off the heat (i.e. remove the water completely from the heat source, do not leave it on the burner) then it starts to cool. The water will not heat any further without a heat source. Evaporation does assist in cooling the water, but that happens even if the water is just sitting on a counter, though ambient temperature is enough to keep everything in equilibrium.

But your not really simulating the system. If you want to do a more accurate experiment, fill one bottle 1/4 way with water and normal air. Fill another bottle same way, except use CO2. This can be done easily using baking soda and vinegar. Since CO2 is heavier than air, you can effectively "pour" it into the bottle. You can try pouring in different amounts of CO2 as well, though it can be tough to tell how much you've added. Put holes in both caps big enough to put in a thermometer, but make sure you seal around the thermometer so no gases escape. Heat both bottles gently in a pan of water (or leave them out in the sun) for the exact same amount of time, then measure their temperatures over time.

What you'll notice is the bottle with CO2 will warm faster and cool slower than the one with just air. This is due to CO2 acting as a thermal insulator which reduces the amount of thermal energy that escapes. The difference in heat retention means that, as you cycle through heating and cooling at regular intervals, the CO2 bottle will gradually get warmer and warmer until you hit a point where the CO2 bottle hits a thermal equilibrium.

If you have access to some lab equipment with purified gases, valves, and such you can do this much more accurately by filling two containers with N2, then slowly displacing N2 with CO2 to one of them while repeatedly heating and cooling the containers. The container with CO2 will show an increasing trend in temperature while the one with just N2 will not. If you're measuring CO2 concentrations at the same time, you'll also be able to note the temperature response curve to increasing amounts of CO2.

For bonus points, if you have a thermal imager in your lab, you can have two containers set up (one with CO2, one without) and position them both in front of a heat source. The container without CO2 will show up as transparent, while the one with CO2 will be opaque.
Here in Central TX we are damp and very warm. Fingers crossed for a rainy stormy day to refill the lakes. Toes crossed that there's no large hail like this area is prone to.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!



sst's are always plenty warm come june1 every season.
Interesting stuff from JPL about the recent drop in sea level being a result from the shift from El Nino to La Nina. Grace caught La Nina dumping copious ocean on Australia & the north end of South America.
Quoting Skyepony:
Interesting stuff from JPL about the recent drop in sea level being a result from the shift from El Nino to La Nina. Grace caught La Nina dumping copious ocean on Australia & the north end of South America.
cool Skye, thanks for sharing!
Quoting hurricane23:


sst's are always plenty warm come june1 every season.


No really. Reason why I posted that map is because we may have June 1st SST averages in April this year.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 823 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AT FM-787 IN THE TARKINGTON PRAIRIE AREA.
RAINFALL OF 9.3 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN ACE NEAR FM-2610.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 1030 AM CST.

* COMMUNITIES NEAR AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...SHEPHERD...SEGNO...ROMAYOR...AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.
Quoting Skyepony:
Interesting stuff from JPL about the recent drop in sea level being a result from the shift from El Nino to La Nina. Grace caught La Nina dumping copious ocean on Australia & the north end of South America.


Skye, I have lost my link to Maue's website. The coaps link no longer works. Do you happen to one. I would appreciate it.

Your friend in need,

Grothar
Quoting Grothar:


Skye, I have lost my link to Maue's website. The coaps link no longer works. Do you happen to one. I would appreciate it.

Your friend in need,

Grothar


Link
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NEWTON...BURKEVILLE...

* UNTIL 930 AM CST

* AT 856 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BURKEVILLE BY 920 AM CST...
STRINGTOWN BY 925 AM CST...
I knew I came here for great info.

Xyrus2000 (#268) +100000.

I will forward your instructions to the ecology teacher at the local high school.

Thanks.

mornin all.

be back aftr brefkast
And the heat goes on...though not quite as strong (thankfully): The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.. While most areas will continue to see nighttime temps above normal, most of the 20-degree plus anomalies fade a bit by Monday:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm
282. flsky
Just curious - why is this posted on a weather blog?

Quoting WxGeekVA:
L.A.S.E.R.S. MANIFESTO:
To every man, woman & child we want an end to the We want an end to status symbols dictating our worth as individuals
We want a meaningful and universal education system
We want substance in the place of popularity
We will not compromise who we are to be accepted by the crowd
We want the invisible walls that separate by wealth, We want to think our own thoughts
We will be responsible for our environment
We want clarity & truth from our elected officials or they should move aside
We want love not lies
We want an end to all wars foreign & domestic violence
We want an end to the processed culture of exploitation, over-consumption & waste
We want knowledge, understanding & peace
We will not lose because we are not losers, we are lasers!
Lasers are the opposite of losers
Lasers are shining beams of light that burn through the darkness of ignorance
Lasers shed light on injustice and inequality
Losers stand by and let things happen
Lasers act and shape their own destinies
Lasers find meaning and direction in the mysteries all around them
Lasers stand for love and compassion
Lasers stand for peace
Lasers stand for progression
Lasers are Revolutionary
Lasers are the future


Love Always Shines Every time Remember 2 Smile
-Lupe Fiasco
Quoting jamesrainier:
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 823 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AT FM-787 IN THE TARKINGTON PRAIRIE AREA.
RAINFALL OF 9.3 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN ACE NEAR FM-2610.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 1030 AM CST.

* COMMUNITIES NEAR AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...SHEPHERD...SEGNO...ROMAYOR...AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.
be careful over there, tornado's and flooding rains, heed the warnings folks, be safe
284. Bogon
One wonders at the taxonomically challenged European settlers who established the groundhog day tradition here in North America. Maybe they decided that any burrowing animal would do. While the groundhog is a rodent, the badger is a weasel.
Quoting Neapolitan:
And the heat goes on...though not quite as strong (thankfully): The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.. While most areas will continue to see nighttime temps above normal, most of the 20-degree plus anomalies fade a bit by Monday:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

img
src="http://contours.hamweather.net/contours/640x 480/departures/us_tempdepartures_lows_day5_i1_poin ts.png" alt="Warm" style="width: 320px; height: 240px; max-width: 501px;">


Very warm winter it has been.
282. flsky
3:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2012


+0



















Just curious - why is this posted on a weather blog?
Perhaps they are attempting to influence the Weather?
Quoting flsky:
Just curious - why is this posted on a weather blog?



Because when I saw it I thought I would share it with a group of people who would do well to live by the items outlined in that manifesto. I don't see any harm in it, and last I checked it had a +3 on it, so apparently it isn't a negative thing that people hate.
Quoting Bogon:
One wonders at the taxonomically challenged European settlers who established the groundhog day tradition here in North America. Maybe they decided that any burrowing animal would do. While the groundhog is a rodent, the badger is a weasel.

Maybe they thought they were choosing the lesser of two weasels.
The GFS still has the low in the gulf.
Well it certainly feels like winter this AM in Denver! Just measured 11 inches outside, with moderate snow still falling and 1/2mi visibilities. Locations in the foothills have already seen 15-20+ and it's not suposse to stop snowing until tomorrow morning. Bring it on!

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Maybe they thought they were choosing the lesser of two weasels.


Drum roll and crashing cymbals!!!!
292. Bogon
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Maybe they thought they were choosing the lesser of two weasels.


Yep, that explains it. :oD
Quoting IceCoast:
Well it certainly feels like winter this AM in Denver! Just measured 11 inches outside, with moderate snow still falling and 1/2mi visibilities. Locations in the foothills have already seen 15-20+ and it's not suposse to stop snowing until tomorrow morning. Bring it on!

My nephews in Littleton are avid snowboarders, so they're very excited about the snow (and playing hooky today). Unfortunately, it won't be around long, at least not in town; highs are expected to be above freezing every day for the next week-and-a-half beginning with Sunday, and by next weekend it'll be back around 50 or so. I told them to enjoy it while they can...
262 FormerAussie "Where did Punxutawney Phil's hillock get its name?"

Gobbler is an American nickname for turkey. Gobblers Knob : Turkey Hill
Near as I can tell, turkeys have been on the land as far back as people can remember.

And yeah, I do know that Brits had great fun misinterpreting "Free Willy", 'fanny pack', 'beach bum', etc
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Very warm winter it has been.
yet there was a cold break in late oct that was memorable north fl.
Quoting Neapolitan:
My nephews in Littleton are avid snowboarders, so they're very excited about the snow (and playing hooky today). Unfortunately, it won't be around long, at least not in town; highs are expected to be above freezing every day for the next week-and-a-half beginning with Sunday, and by next weekend it'll be back around 50 or so. I told them to enjoy it while they can...


Would of loved to go riding today, but had class in the morning. (Hey, at least it was a meteorology class!) Im fine with it warming up in the Denver area as long as it snows in the mountains, which hasn't been happening. Most of the major resorts got snubbed again with this storm, as the large majority of the snow is falling east of the Continental Divide with the upslope flow.

New Blog
Quoting TheoJesse:

Scott
I have all the math and a graph developed for this.
The problem is that I have no idea how to post this info.


I'm sure many of us will be interested to see once you figure it out.

Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
Simulate the 11 year solar cycle with the heat control on the stove. (I've seen that posted here several times but I don't know where to find it.) You will find that the water temperature will continue to rise well after you have passed your maximum temperature excursion. Once the radiated cooling is more than the amount of heat you are applying, the water will start to cool down.
Does this make sense?
Jesse


Many different independent groups have worked up energy balances of the earth's climate system. If your suggestion is that we are still warming up because of a previous solar cycle, then we would have discovered an energy imbalance (more incoming solar energy than outgoing energy). Also, different from your in-house experiment, the earth has had the same heating source (and its associated cycle) for some time, and thus has been at near-equilibrium. Studies have shown than the lag from the solar cycle variations is less than one solar cycle, on the order of 1-5yrs (I think ~2yrs is considered the best estimate), so energy from the cycle would not really compound directly, but instead of inertia of the climate system.

Ironically enough, scientists have discovered an energy imbalance, but it has occurred at the exact wavelengths that greenhouse gases absorb/re-emit. This has been caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere; greenhouse gases that have been traced to fossil fuels. This energy imbalance has put more energy into the climate system than has yet been observed with air/ocean/ice temperatures, so more warming is in the pipeline from climate inertia.