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Six Key Questions for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:18 PM GMT on May 30, 2014

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway on Sunday, June 1. What will this year's hurricane season bring? My top six questions for the coming season:

1) When will the first "Invest", tropical depression, and named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season form? We have a chance of all three of these events occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of hurricane season, though the models are currently hazy about this. An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific located a few hundred miles south of Southeast Mexico is forecast to move slowly northwards towards the Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Wednesday. The 06Z Friday run of the GFS model predicts that this disturbance will make landfall in Southeast Mexico on Tuesday, then spread moisture northwards over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The model predicts that wind shear will be light to moderate over the Gulf late in the week, potentially allowing the disturbance to spin up into a tropical depression. The 00Z Friday run of the European model has a different solution, predicting that the Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance will remain south of Mexico through Friday. However, the model suggests that moisture streaming into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week will be capable of spawning an area of low pressure with the potential to develop in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. In any case, residents of Southeast Mexico and Western Guatemala appear at risk to undergo a multi-day period of very heavy rainfall capable of causing flash flooding and dangerous mudslides beginning as early as Monday. This disturbance may cross over Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico and create the Atlantic's first "Invest" with the potential to develop late in the week, sometime June 5 - 7.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7:45 am EDT Friday May 30, 2014, showing an area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south of Southeast Mexico. Will this disturbance cross over into the Gulf of Mexico and create the Atlantic's first "Invest" of 2014 late in the week? Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

2) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a below-average to near-average season, with 9 - 12 named storms, 3 - 6 hurricanes, and 1 - 2 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013 averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Will an El Niño event indeed arrive, bringing reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, allowing the pre-season predictions to redeem themselves after a huge forecast bust in 2013?

3) How will the steering current pattern evolve? El Niño years tend to feature more storms that recurve out to sea and miss land; will this be the case in 2014?

4) Will the U.S. break its 2006 - 2013 eight-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

5) Will the 170,000 people still homeless and living in makeshift shelters in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the fifth consecutive hurricane season?

6) Will the new experimental National Hurricane Center products be useful and popular? I am most looking forward to the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, interactive zoomable maps that will show where the storm surge has a 10% chance of inundating the coast at 3, 6, and 9 feet above ground level. The new NHC blog (first post: May 29, 2014) and 5-day graphical weather outlook (begins July 1) should also be of interest.


Figure 2. Sample experimental NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for the Texas coast for a fictional hurricane (not Hurricane Ike), generated using using NOAA's Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge 2.0) model. P-Surge 2.0 uses multiple runs of the NWS Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model to create an ensemble of possible inundations, by varying the hurricane's landfall location, intensity, size, forward speed, and angle of approach to the coast. The image shows where the storm surge has a 10% chance of inundating the coast at 3, 6, and 9 feet above ground level. The model does not take into account wave action, freshwater flooding from rainfall, and breaching or overtopping of levees.

Cosmos takes on Climate Change
The groundbreaking Fox and National Geographic Channel series Cosmos, hosted by Neil DeGrasse Tyson, has been attracting more than 3 million viewers every Sunday night--an impressive tally for a science-based show. Cosmos has been unafraid to confront controversy, taking on creationism and industry-funded science denial, for example. This Sunday, June 1, at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT, Cosmos takes on climate science deniers with a full 1-hour episode devoted to climate change. According to Chris Mooney of motherjones.com, who had a chance to preview the episode, "it contains some powerful refutations of a number of global warming denier talking points, as well as some ingenious sequences that explain the planetary-scale significance of climate change. It also contains some in-situ reporting on the impacts of climate change, straight from the imperiled Arctic." I'm looking forward to seeing the legacy of Carl Sagan continue this Sunday night. For those who miss it on Sunday, Cosmos also airs Monday, June 2nd at 9 pm EDT on National Geographic Channel, with additional footage.


Video 1. Neil DeGrasse Tyson uses the analogy of walking a dog on the beach to explain the difference between climate and weather, showing that no matter how cold your winter may have been, that's no argument against global warming. Tyson travels to the Arctic to explain global warming and its effect on thawing permafrost in this Sunday's Cosmos episode (9pm EDT/8 CDT.)

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post--earlier if the disturbance in the EPac looks like a significant threat.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Down to 10% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A stationary trough of low pressure interacting with a large
upper-level low is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized
showers over much of eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico and across
the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for the development of this system as it moves
little this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
2002. LargoFl
well its been 8 1/2 years since a hurricane has hit florida..yeah we've had some tropical storms but no hurricanes...overdue perhaps?
2003. StormWx
Gulf SST's getting warmer, still cool off LA coast. Barely warm enough to support a TC even if one fights the odds of cool water and high shear.



I dont think the models are going to verify on this low they've been having for the past week. Just my opinion at this point but we'll see who is right. I dont think FL is going to get 'slammed' or 'hammered' with flooding rains anytime soon.
Good Morning.  Regardless of the long-term fate of 93E, one thing is pretty certain.  Looks likes life-threatening mudslides and flooding are on tap for Central America and Yucatan over the next several days as there is a very large abundance of moisture down there traversing the region.  The rain threat will far outweigh potential wind damage issues.
Quoting 2004. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning.  Regardless of the long-term fate of 93L, one thing is pretty certain.  Looks likes life-threatening mudslides and flooding are on tap for Central America and Yucatan over the next several days as there is a very large abundance of moisture down there traversing the region.  The rain threat will far outweigh potential wind damage issues.




there is no 93L its called 93E has it is in the E PAC
pop in, nothing seems to have changed, off to work, finally got a new job! Be back around 6 EDT. Should be a new blog by then.

Play nice,
TD later today or on Tuesday.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 275 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, have
become a little better organized overnight and early this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and a tropical cyclone could form later today or Tuesday while the
low moves slowly northwestward to northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this week. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

Quoting 2005. Tazmanian:




there is no 93L its called 93E has it is in the E PAC
Thanks Taz; corrected..(as I take another sip of coffee to kick start the brain)...................
2009. LargoFl
8 days too far out there to believe........................................... .............
Oh this has to be disappointing to many
Not surprised I am BOC ain't the best of places at this time
NHC much less enthusiastic

" Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for the development of this system..."
0%/10%

Unlike before when NHC stated that
"conditions might become better..."
0%/20%
Agree with the comment below that 93E may become a depression later today; the latest loop updates are showing that proto-banding is already starting to develop around the center of the low.  Would also note that the topography "curve" down there, just to the NE of the system on the coast of Mexico, might help the storm spin up a little quicker.  Not as pronounced as the BOC "effect" but I recall seeing a few E-Pac storms spin up rather quickly in this general location in recent E-Pac seasons.
93E...

2013. LargoFl
well its only the 2nd day of the storm season,conditions still arent right yet.
2015. Patrap
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS VENEZUELA ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 5N70W IN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN COLOMBIA ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 82W
IN PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 8N22W AND 4N27W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND
15W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND
47W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N15W 11N22W
7N35W 7N50W 6N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA...
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND ACAPULCO MEXICO. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERNMOST PART. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA BEYOND CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM
27N TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF 95W INCLUDING IN PARTS OF FLORIDA. NUMEROUS
STRONG HAS REACHED THE COASTAL PLAINS OF WESTERN EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA...RELATED TO THE 12N94W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS...KHQI...KVBS...KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGR Y...
KIPN...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS AT...FALFURRIAS AND ALICE... AT
BEAUMONT...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA NORTHWARD...IN LOUISIANA IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS AND AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN MISSISSIPPI LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS...IN ALABAMA LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...IN FLORIDA FROM PERRY
WESTWARD...IN BROOKSVILLE...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO COASTAL
VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 82W IN PANAMA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND 80W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.01 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 1.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH
RUNS FROM EASTERN PANAMA...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...
THROUGH 12N94W...TO 14N98W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N94W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
69W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 63W THROUGH 32N TO 20N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N60W TO 25N70W
TO 29N81W IN FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N54W 25N62W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.29 IN BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N26W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N32W...TO 18N35W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N51W 19N60W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...AND AWAY
FROM THE 32N58W 29N81W STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N57.5W TO 25N70W TO
27N81W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 80.5W.
A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N37W
TO 25N42W TO 18N35W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
Quoting 2011. weathermanwannabe:

Agree with the comment below that 93E may become a depression later today; the latest loop updates are showing that proto-banding is already starting to develop around the center of the low.  Would also note that the topography "curve" down there, just to the NE of the system on the coast of Mexico, might help the storm spin up a little quicker.  Not as pronounced as the BOC "effect" but I recall seeing a few E-Pac storms spin up rather quickly in this general location in recent E-Pac seasons.


Yes indeed
93-E in EPAC is looking more organized this morning! There is an Impulse/blob riding northward over the Yucatan, on east side of ULL, in GOM. Interesting.

Have you ever heard .... when the Pacific "rises," or increases in tropical activity .... the Atlantic sometimes "falls," or goes down, in activity. Nature's balancing act!

Will 93-E win out, or will it influence what happens in the Gulf of Mexico?

With today's technology and all the global and hurricane models out there, it is really interesting, and always improving - and forecasts are getting better.. But, predicting a T.S. landfall more than a week or 10 days into the future, before an actual LLC develops ... like someone else said here, is like taking it with a BAG of salt! (LoL).

Things change, and so will the weather, and the outcome. Still would not be surprised if we get something happening in the GOM with this sloppy mess.
Quoting 2013. LargoFl:

well its only the 2nd day of the storm season,conditions still arent right yet.



its early june things are still way two early for any thing two fourm and with the fourming of EL nino we may not see any thing in tell AUGS i think that is when most of are storms will happen this year if any all so we may see a few storms off a tail end of a cold front other then that dont look for any thing in tell AUG if you want two track storms the E and W PAC will be the hot spot
Wow. Look at the energy building in the GOM. Maybe it won't get its act together, but still some exciting weather ahead for us in FL. The froggies are happy and riotously celebrating....
2020. Patrap
93-E RGB Loop




I say 93E is near 13.0N 93.5W moving slowly or drifting generally Northbound
Hmm, this mess in the Gulf has the potential to mess up Billy Bowlegs weekend in Fort Walton Beach! We've had a ton of rain in NW Florida this Spring and any tropical system even if it's just a wave is not good for our area, we've already had a lot of flooding this Spring. Good to see everyone again, looks like the Blog has changed a bit since I was last on!
2023. hydrus
Quoting 2003. StormWx:

Gulf SST's getting warmer, still cool off LA coast. Barely warm enough to support a TC even if one fights the odds of cool water and high shear.



I dont think the models are going to verify on this low they've been having for the past week. Just my opinion at this point but we'll see who is right. I dont think FL is going to get 'slammed' or 'hammered' with flooding rains anytime soon.
I have not seen the gulf this cool in ages during the month of June...That should change quick tho.
2025. Patrap



Quoting 2023. hydrus:

I have not seen the gulf this cool in ages during the month of June...That should change quick tho.


I know what you mean, I was in the water yesterday and couldn't believe it was June and the water still had a chill to it.
Yesterday afternoon the GFS completely dropped the low from forming. It just kept a large influx of moisture moving into Fl.

Last night the GFS brought back the Low, but it's still very weak for several reasons. One reason is the Low really can't get going if it tries to form over the Yucatan peninsula.

There's already a large broad area of distrurbed weather over the Eastern GOM and Western Caribbean.

Lots of moisture just waiting for something to organize it.

Quoting 2027. 69Viking:



I know what you mean, I was in the water yesterday and couldn't believe it was June and the water still had a chill to it.

Jared Allan on Minnesota no more. Time to change to avatar!!!
Quoting 2003. StormWx:

Gulf SST's getting warmer, still cool off LA coast. Barely warm enough to support a TC even if one fights the odds of cool water and high shear.



I dont think the models are going to verify on this low they've been having for the past week. Just my opinion at this point but we'll see who is right. I dont think FL is going to get 'slammed' or 'hammered' with flooding rains anytime soon.

Well being that we're into the first week of June SST tend to warm up. That usually always happens this time of year....
There's already a broad rotation over the Yucatan region.
This week's ENSO anomalies index shows a rise in 3.4 to +0.6C. 1+2 to +1.6C, 3 remains at +0.7C, and 4 at +0.9C.
If you watch the GFS run, the broad rotation that's already sitting down in the Yucatan pulls in the moisture from the low in the Pacific and it slowly develops (over days) into the low that moves into Fl.
2034. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This week's ENSO anomalies index shows a rise in 3.4 to +0.6C. 1+2 to +1.6C, 3 remains at +0.7C, and 4 at +0.9C.


Wow cool!
2035. hydrus
Quoting 2005. Tazmanian:




there is no 93L its called 93E has it is in the E PAC
Thanks Tazaroo !!
Quoting 2033. Sfloridacat5:

If you watch the GFS run, the broad rotation that's already sitting down in the Yucatan pulls in the moisture from the low in the Pacific and it slowly develops (over days) into the low that moves into Fl.


GFS keeps pushing it back though. I think the stronger Boris gets the better chance we get something in the Southern Gulf or even NW Caribbean once it comes ashore in Mexico. The reason for this thinking is the stronger Boris is the better chance we will have of its vort getting into the Gulf intact causing Arthur to eventually form. Gonna be a interesting week waiting to see how this evolves.



Quoting 2032. StormTrackerScott:

This week's ENSO anomalies index shows a rise in 3.4 to +0.6C. 1+2 to +1.6C, 3 remains at +0.7C, and 4 at +0.9C.
Could spell trouble ??
2039. SLU
Some people said El Nino would officially begin in May but that seems to be delayed by a couple months given the levelling off of the SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region. I hope it never comes :).



EP, 93, 2014060200, 123N, 938W, 25, 1005, LO
EP, 93, 2014060206, 124N, 935W, 25, 1004, LO
EP, 93, 2014060212, 126N, 936W, 25, 1003, LO
2041. Torito
2042. Torito
GEM 84 hours out. Rain for me in MD and a TD in our backyard.

2043. Torito
GFDL 126 hours out!

2044. SLU
The current SST profile of the Atlantic is very bad for an active Cape Verde season in 2014. Not only will the warm SSTs north of 25N draw away upward motion from the deep tropics, but the cool SSTs north of the Cape Verde islands will continually result in cold, dry air being pumped into the deep tropics by the north-easterly wind flow at the base of the AB High. This could result in one of those years when the tropical waves wait until 50W to start cranking up .... if any of them do that is.

2045. Torito
"At 0000 UTC, 02 June 2014, LOW INVEST (EP93) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 11.9N and 94.2W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 0 kt at a bearing of 0 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb."






Quoting 2039. SLU:

Some people said El Nino would officially begin in May but that seems to be delayed by a couple months given the levelling off of the SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region. I hope it never comes :).







plzs for get the map its not a vary trusted map ENSO anomalies index has nino 3.4 at 0.6 and i hop the mod two strong EL nino dos come two help CA out this winter
2047. MAstu
There are two frequency distributions used to model the annual frequency of landfall events. The first is the Poisson distribution which is "memoryless" meaning that in any given year the probability of a landfalling hurricane is the same regardless of how many there were in the previous year or years. The second distribution is the negative binomial distribution which is a poisson distribution where the parameter is defined by a gamma distribution. In the case of a negative binomial, bayesian theory says that the number of expected landfalling storms is lower following a year with fewer landfalling storms than expected (and vice versa). Therefore, from a modeling perspective, Florida is either no more likely to have a landfalling storm this year or less likely depending on the model.

That said, the parameter(s) may change depending on conditions considered to be conducive to landfalling storms. However, the concept of "due for a storm" is wrong for the reasons above.
SW Caribbean is blowing up convection as a Tropical Wave meets with the monsoon trof plus with an established upper level anticyclone overhead to vent
2049. Torito
Quoting 2043. Torito:

GFDL 126 hours out!



As expected GFDL and HWRF always explode systems
And do weird things
Got a wary eye on 93E down here in Puerto Escondido. Its looking more organized this am and looks like it might head our way. Hoping for a weak system but know that the water is a steamy 88-89 deg right now. Best case scenario for me would be a Salina Cruz land fall keeping our winds generally offshore and not mucking up the 8 foot Southern Hemisphere swell that is predicted for the next few days.
2052. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


GFS keeps pushing it back though. I think the stronger Boris gets the better chance we get something in the Southern Gulf or even NW Caribbean once it comes ashore in Mexico. The reason for this thinking is the stronger Boris is the better chance we will have of its vort getting into the Gulf intact causing Arthur to eventually form. Gonna be a interesting week waiting to see how this evolves.





Looks like the those long range models that hammer FL you post wont verify, hmmmmm :o) Just shows how inaccurate they can be.
2053. MahFL
Quoting 2050. wunderkidcayman:


As expected GFDL and HWRF always explode systems
And do weird things


How is 994 an explosion ?
From the Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

LARGE DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE EXTENDED-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WET PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS. LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS INDICATES A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHICH
REMAINS AS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
MODEL CYCLES UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

Good morning everyone! I just wanted to give everyone an update on the weather in MS...surprise...it is raining! Have a great day everyone. :-)
2056. Torito
Today in weather history... (Thank you, Farmer's almanac.)

1961: Indianapolis experienced its latest freeze on record, with the temperature falling to 31 degrees F!!
Quoting 2053. MahFL:



How is 994 an explosion ?

Ain't nothing gonna happen there and if it was it would be weak nothing lower than 1005/1004mbs
1005-994 big drop

Appears the GFS is having convective feedback issues on days 6-7 thus forming a Low and moving it NE with the midlevel moisture. As of right now, it appears unlikely as the outliner and feedback issues that something will form in the GOM over the next 4-5 days if at all.
2059. hydrus
Quoting 2052. StormWx:



Looks like the those long range models that hammer FL you post wont verify, hmmmmm :o) Just shows how inaccurate they can be.
Abundant moisture associated with 93E. If this moves into the gulf and wraps into whatever develops, someone,s gonna get wet.
Quoting 1975. sar2401:


No one knows. The low that's supposed to form hasn't formed yet, at least in the BOC. What does form is almost totally dependent on what 93E becomes and where it goes. The very same models that totally blew it on Debby, both for track and intensity, are the ones forecasting the storm that may or may not move anywhere near Tampa. Once a low really does form, I expect that the models will change radically. Stay tuned.


Well, the GFS never blew it on Debby, only the infallible Euro and the other ones did, the GFS had it impacting Florida as a week system from many days out. The Euro has a tendency to not pick up on weak tropical systems either.

That doesn't mean we put all the money on the GFS or anything, but just saying. This is one of those deals where people should simply keep on eye on the situation, but not be sure of anything. There is certainly a possibility something will develop, but I don't think its that high right now given the obvious low confidence forecast.

I mean, the current GFS doesn't seem very reasonable either right now. Having it take a sharp turn across South Florida seems doubtful, I would think North or Central Florida seems more likely given the setup.

Also, the GFS shows too much organized precip near the center and too strong of a system given such strong wind shear forecast. Its original runs which had a much weaker low going further north with rain well displaced northeast seems more reasonable to me if anything were to develop in the first place.
2061. hydrus
2062. ricderr
Some people said El Nino would officially begin in May but that seems to be delayed by a couple months given the levelling off of the SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region. I hope it never comes :).


well..i for one hope it does come....but yes...we've heard a plethora of arrival dates for baby nino..........april....winter...may....spring..... two weeks...any day now...and june 5th.....so far.....two are still on the table...and the rest are bust......i really thought july...but just like you show on your region 3.4 graph...it looks much more like august
2063. ricderr
good morning from scorching el paso.......yesterdays high was 102....same as saturdays...and now all local news stations are forecasting 100 degree temps through saturday....sunday a cold front drops in and lowers temps to 99....whoohhoo...........tomorrow's high is forecast above our record high so there's a good chance we'll see that broken.....now humidity is low....so yes....shade and a breeze and while it's not enjoyable it is bearable./...however...you really need to remember to crack your windows just a bit.....got into the car yesterday after going into a store and the inside temp was 128
2064. Patrap
With the first few vis images on RGB it appears that 93E LLCOC is actually a bit NW of BEST track position location near 12.9N/13.0N 94.2W movement NE-NNE
As the convection builds it's becoming increasing difficult to see the low levels if we get more images it might become easier to tell
2066. UGLYWX


Not much for system to feed off of even if something does spin up in the Gulf
2067. ricderr
Not much for system to feed off of even if something does spin up in the Gulf


i know a lot of my fellow bloggers are excited...but i just don't see any chances of more than a heavy rain event...
Quoting 2066. UGLYWX:



Not much for system to feed off of even if something does spin up in the Gulf

Just sayin if it does spin up in the NW Caribbean it's got a lot to feed off from
That's if it does
Quoting 2066. UGLYWX:



Not much for system to feed off of even if something does spin up in the Gulf

We don't need anymore rain in NW Florida so I hope anything that tries to develop fizzles and the moisture goes somewhere they actually need it!
Quoting 2044. SLU:

The current SST profile of the Atlantic is very bad for an active Cape Verde season in 2014. Not only will the warm SSTs north of 25N draw away upward motion from the deep tropics, but the cool SSTs north of the Cape Verde islands will continually result in cold, dry air being pumped into the deep tropics by the north-easterly wind flow at the base of the AB High. This could result in one of those years when the tropical waves wait until 50W to start cranking up .... if any of them do that is.




I guess "cool SSTs north of the Cape Verde islands" depends on where one gets data from.......


2071. hydrus
Well the 0.6C reading at nino 3.4 is official.

ENSO: CPC 6/2/14: Nino 3.4 up to +0.6C
Happy hurricane season to all! It is going to be a busy season with plenty close to land. Ok, maybe a slow season with none close to land. Or? Back into the shadows until something pops up...
Wow! Almost tropical storm conditions this morning- station on st Pete beach has sustained winds east at 29 gusting to 37 mph! Station is a wunderground station called Lido on st Pete beach.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=KFLSAINT26
2076. ricderr
finally got the cpc weekly enso update to load.........as some have already stated .6 is the 3.4 regiion average for the week.....took it long enough...but you can read the whole report here
Quoting 2072. StormTrackerScott:

Well the 0.6C reading at nino 3.4 is official.

ENSO: CPC 6/2/14: Nino 3.4 up to +0.6C

Nope it's gotta keep that up for 3 or 5 months it's only been like a month and a half now before official El Niño
2078. xcool
the GFS is bit to robust
2079. ricderr
CSU goes up slightly in the number of named storms and hurricanes on their June update. (10/4/1)

thanx for the link tropic...i found this interesting....

This forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction
scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data.


yes folks......29 years of terrible guestimates have made us experts at getting it wrong
Quoting 2075. StPetersburgFL:

Wow! Almost tropical storm conditions this morning- station on st Pete beach has sustained winds east at 29 gusting to 37 mph! Station is a wunderground station called Lido on st Pete beach.


3.27" of rain yesterday here in Longwood. Spring Hill got 6" Saturday as Blogger Hernando stated on my blog.
Quoting 2080. StormTrackerScott:



3.27" of rain yesterday here in Longwood. Spring Hill got 6" Saturday as Blogger Hernando stated on blog.
.

I finally had some rain yesterday too! Also multiple bouys nearby have winds gusting over 30 mph. Highest gust I've seen is 37 on st Pete beach.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=KFLSAINT26
Gusting to 37 mph!
Quoting 2074. Tropicsweatherpr:

CSU goes up slightly in the number of named storms and hurricanes on their June update. (10/4/1)

Lol why am I not one bit surprised huh
Quoting 2077. wunderkidcayman:


Nope it's gotta keep that up for 3 or 5 months it's only been like a month and a half now before official El Nio



It's a 3 month average. That doesn't necessarily mean the daily/weekly anomaly needs to be above .5 for 3 months.
Quoting 2080. StormTrackerScott:



3.27" of rain yesterday here in Longwood. Spring Hill got 6" Saturday as Blogger Hernando stated on blog.


We've had a little over 5" since the end of last week here in the Fort Walton Beach area. Looking at the Satellite it looks like more moisture is heading North towards us out of the GOM. We had a wet summer last year that dirtied our emerald green waters, sure hope the same doesn't happen this summer.
2085. JNTenne
Quoting 2002. LargoFl:

well its been 8 1/2 years since a hurricane has hit florida..yeah we've had some tropical storms but no hurricanes...overdue perhaps?
We are seriously thinking of moving to the FL Panhandle now... hopefully the trend will continue.. gone from JNCali to JNTenn and possibly soon to be JNFla or JNNoFla gotta come up with something..
Happy Monday!
2086. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


3.27" of rain yesterday here in Longwood. Spring Hill got 6" Saturday as Blogger Hernando stated on blog.


Wow thats great Scott! Congrats on the rain and keep us updated daily!



invest 93E LOOKING BETTER THIS MORNING!!
Quoting 2084. 69Viking:



We've had a little over 5" since the end of last week here in the Fort Walton Beach area. Looking at the Satellite it looks like more moisture is heading North towards us out of the GOM. We had a wet summer last year that dirtied our emerald green waters, sure hope the same doesn't happen this summer.



Yeah, had some cells train over my area all afternoon yesterday after being missed everyday since Memorial Day weekend.
2089. StormWx
0.00" at my location so far today. Hopefully i wont get hammered like Scott!
Quoting 2086. StormWx:



Wow thats great Scott! Congrats on the rain and keep us updated daily!


At least his posts are much more informative than your constant obsession with him.
2091. StormWx
Rut Roh, not much Rain for FL the next 7 days, except for perhaps SW FL could see an inch or two. So much for those long range models 'pummeling' us with flooding rains and a wide swatch of 5-10" from here to Nova Scotia :o)

Quoting 2089. StormWx:

0.00" at my location so far today. Hopefully i wont get hammered like Scott!


You are obsessed with Scott lol I'm surprised he doesn't have a restraining order against u lol
2093. StormWx
Quoting Naga5000:


At least his posts are much more informative than your constant obsession with him.


I live in the same area, CFL, as Scott. Not obsessed, just stating my observations. Next time, try a weather related post.
Quoting 2093. StormWx:



I live in the same area, CFL, as Scott. Not obsessed, just stating my observations. Next time, try a weather related post.


Your obsession is quite obvious to everyone. I live in Orlando too, but I'm not an ass about it.
2095. StormWx
About average this upcoming week for my area. No flooding rains and low chances for a shower. Hope everyone has a great week.

2096. StormWx
Pretty cool, Noctilucent clouds.

NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS: The Arctic Circle is beginning to glow--not with auroras, but with noctilucent clouds (NLCs). Seeded by meteor smoke, electric-blue NLCs appear every year in late spring, and grow in intensity as summer unfolds. On May 30th they descended to central Europe. Chris Kranich sends this picture from Kiel, Germany:

"Our first noctilucent clouds of 2014 were clearly visible to the naked eye," says Kranich. "They were visible all night long, though occasionally hiding behind low dark tropospheric clouds."

NASA's AIM spacecraft is orbiting Earth on a mission to study noctilucent clouds. When the spacecraft launched in 2007, the origin of the clouds was a mystery. Since then AIM has revealed not only the role of meteoroids in seeding NLCs but also how methane, a potent greenhouse gas, can boost the production of the clouds. This makes NLCs a potentially sensitive probe of climate change as well as long-distance teleconnections in Earth's atmosphere.

High above the Arctic Circle, AIM saw the first NLCs of the 2014 northern summer season on May 24th, 6 days before they appeared over Germany. More ground-level sightings may be expected in the nights ahead as the intensity of the clouds increases.

Link
Quoting StormWx:


I live in the same area, CFL, as Scott. Not obsessed, just stating my observations. Next time, try a weather related post.


No, I'm pretty sure you're obsessed.
Look what the TWC has it doing! :P
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 2094. Naga5000:



Your obsession is quite obvious to everyone. I live in Orlando too, but I'm not an ass about it.



One thing I have noticed in my years perusing this weather site and do not have an answer for;
You can make all kinds of ridiculous claims. You can be untruthful about events, yet, still be loved and adored. The person who refutes these claims, who brings a more factual perspective, is for the most part, condemned.
Quoting 2083. Naga5000:



It's a 3 month average. That doesn't necessarily mean the daily/weekly anomaly needs to be above .5 for 3 months.

Yeah thanks 3 months
And yeah it say it have to be running at or above 0.5C for 3 consecutive months
According to CPC it's only been 0.5 or higher since the middle of May
According to Levi's maps it only been at 0.5 or higher since late April/Early May so got a bit to go
Quoting SLU:
The current SST profile of the Atlantic is very bad for an active Cape Verde season in 2014. Not only will the warm SSTs north of 25N draw away upward motion from the deep tropics, but the cool SSTs north of the Cape Verde islands will continually result in cold, dry air being pumped into the deep tropics by the north-easterly wind flow at the base of the AB High. This could result in one of those years when the tropical waves wait until 50W to start cranking up .... if any of them do that is.



I really don't think you can get a setup less conductive to hurricane activity. That's completely opposite to what one would want to see for an active hurricane season.
Quoting MocDasters:



One thing I have noticed in my years perusing this weather site and do not have an answer for;
You can make all kinds of ridiculous claims. You can be untruthful about events, yet, still be loved and adored. The person who refutes these claims, who brings a more factual perspective, is for the most part, condemned.


Except for the fact when no facts are presented from the more "factual perspective." Just contradictory bashing.
2104. Dakster
In today's Weather News and Irony Department.

A Nissan Leaf is crushed by an Oak tree. Driver somehow survived, which is a miracle, and I happy to report - although is in critical in the hospital.



http://www.11alive.com/media/cinematic/video/9788 113/nissan-leaf-crushed-by-oak-tree/

Link
2105. SLU
Quoting 2070. nrtiwlnvragn:



I guess "cool SSTs north of the Cape Verde islands" depends on where one gets data from.......





The Reynolds SSTs are averaged over one week right? If so that would certainly increase the variability of the data.
2106. vis0

Quoting 2079. ricderr:

CSU goes up slightly in the number of named storms and hurricanes on their June update. (10/4/1)

thanx for the link tropic...i found this interesting....

This forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction
scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data.


yes folks......29 years of terrible guestimates have made us experts at getting it wrong
reply to above w/ an Eduguestimate.(if its not, make the word official Mirriam, its the more experienced Guestimate)

http://i58.tinypic.com/2nh3r6q.jpg (not linked as its above but capD it for memories sake)

CREDIT: Climate Prediction Center (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) Its hard work (as ricderr, most members here know) but "we poke cause we luv" (1960s/80s comedic line; we kid cause we love)


too small2read enter http://v8.tinypic.com/player.swf?file=4r5p4y& s=8 in new Tab...don't re fresca da pg.
SIC(K) has just been distinguished by making 261 on my Ignore list, for what it's worth.