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Significant Tornadoes Possible on Wed; Widespread Severe Weather Expected on Thursday

By: Bob Henson 5:45 PM GMT on April 08, 2015

A batch of scattered but potent supercell thunderstorms should erupt late Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. At 11:30 am CDT, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placed a swath from roughly Wichita, KS, to Columbia, MO, under a moderate risk of severe weather for Wednesday, with lesser risk categories extending from northern Oklahoma to West Virginia. Significant tornadoes (EF2 - EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Damage Scale) and very large hail (greater than 2” in diameter) are a possibility (see Figure 1).


Figure 1. As of 11:30 am CDT Wednesday, a large part of the central U.S. was under various risk categories for severe weather in the afternoon and evening (top). The crosshatched areas indicate the risk of significant tornadoes (center) and very large hail (bottom). The percentages in these two maps give the odds of a tornado (center) or hail of at least 1” diameter (bottom) occurring within 25 miles of a given point. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.


This potential outbreak has been well predicted by forecast models for several days. Ample moisture and favorable jet-stream flow from the southwest have been in place since Monday, leading to a few pockets of severe weather already. SPC logged more than 50 preliminary reports of 1” to 2” diameter hail as far north as southern Minnesota, where moist air from the Gulf of Mexico flowed atop much chillier surface air. One complex of severe storms moved from eastern Missouri to Kentucky on Tuesday afternoon, dropping baseball-sized hail in the central Kentucky town of Garrard and dousing Louisville, KY, with another 1.21” of rain on top of the 14.62” it had already received since March 1. Damage surveys on Wednesday confirmed two tornadoes from this complex southeast of Lexington, KY, and two others were reported on Wednesday night in far southeast Kansas. Thunderstorms continued on Wednesday morning along and near a broad east-west frontal zone extending from central Missouri into southern Ohio, with two severe thunderstorm watches in effect by late morning.

A major upper low that gave much-appreciated snow and rain to California is now making its move into the central states, which will help trigger Wednesday’s main round of severe weather. A piece of energy from the low will sweep across a constellation of boundaries in the OK/KS/MO region. These included a dry line in northwest Oklahoma and the east-west frontal zone, which was pushed into northeast Oklahoma by late-evening storms on Tuesday, then began lifting back north into Kansas and Missouri as a warm front on Wednesday morning.

Scattered thunderstorms should form along or near these boundaries by Wednesday evening, with several rapidly becoming supercells that could spawn tornadoes. The sheer number of storms may be limited at first by a capping layer of warm, dry air several miles high. Weaker storms have formed above the cap in western Oklahoma, which may diminish the risk somewhat along the dry line. However, the amount of instability and wind shear on hand by evening, especially toward southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, favors the emergence of supercells (long-lived, discrete thunderstorms that produce the lion’s share of stronger tornadoes). The cool low-level air pushed out from any storms that develop could provide boundaries for additional storm formation.

NOAA/SPC has issued a public severe weather outlook for Wednesday’s storms.


Figure 2. Wednesday’s severe weather will be followed by another round on Thursday, April 9. As shown above, the Wednesday 1200 GMT run of the high-resolution (4-kilometer) NAM model predicted that a line of potentially severe thunderstorms would bisect Illinois along a strong cold front at 7:00 pm CDT Thursday, with scattered intense storms from southern Michigan to western New York near a warm front. If overnight storms inhibit daytime heating on Thursday, the storms may be less widespread or severe. Once the Illinois storms form a solid line, the risk of significant tornadoes should lessen there, but a threat for high wind, heavy rain, and large hail would persist with the subsequent squall line into Indiana, Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Image credit: College of DuPage NeXt Generation Weather Lab.


Severe threat shifts to Midwest on Thursday
Tornadoes are also possible on Thursday as the upper low and associated frontal system accelerate northeast toward the Great Lakes. By afternoon, a strong cold front should be plowing east across Illinois, with the east-west frontal zone now sweeping north into Wisconsin and Michigan as a warm front. These boundaries will help focus intense thunderstorms across a broad area, probably more numerous than on Wednesday, with long-lived supercells possible. Wind shear will be stronger than on Wednesday, but it remains to be seen how well the atmosphere manages to recover from the cooling effect of Wednesday night’s storms upstream. If the air does warm up enough to become at least moderately unstable, models suggest that the powerful upper system could trigger a north-south line of fast-moving supercells across Illinois (see Figure 2), eventually becoming a solid line with heavy rain, hail, and high winds. Other dangerous storms may form along the warm front. The overall system’s increasing speed will put much of the Midwest and the Mississippi Valley in line for one or more quick shots of potentially severe weather. As of 12:30 p.m. CDT Wednesday, SPC’s enhanced-risk area for Thursday includes an unusually large swath from northeast Texas to eastern Ohio.


Figure 3. A partial double rainbow took shape near Taylorsville, KY, in the wake of the severe storms that produced at least two tornadoes and baseball-sized hail over central Kentucky. Image credit: wunderphotographer mlongteach.

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dok!


Enhanced risk is now HUGE!!!!!

Storms moving into Central Illinois out of Missouri this afternoon .. Storms this morning between 3 and 5 AM dropped between .5 and .75 inches of rain on the area ..
Thanks Bob, hopefully there will be no loss of life from the potential storms this week.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


But surprisingly, the major cities on the map are outside of it...even Joplin.
Thanks for the update - stay safe if you're in the zone....
Was able to catch StL futurecast at lunch & not thrilled. Had a bowing line coming from NW into my area around 3-4 a.m. Other storms around midnight from SW, and that line Thurs afternoon, though it wasn't real robust in my area. Regardless will be an interesting 36hrs.

N station, 72 w/ 64 dew pt, SW station 74 w/ 69 dew pt. N slightly above 29.9", SW slightly below, both have light S winds getting a little more SW component lately.
Thanks. I hope everyone prepared for the worst and hoped for the best.
Quoting 62901IL:


Enhanced risk is now HUGE!!!!!

Wow.
Thanks for the update, Mr. Henson!
Link
Here's my video if didn't catch it,
Quoting 11. Andrebrooks:

Wow.



Strangely enough, there's also a 45% probability area.

I'm also under a severe thunderstorm watch with hail being the main threat. Due to parallel 35-40 kt flow, there's currently a chance of a tornado or two.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Strangely enough, there's also a 45% probability area.

I'm also under a severe thunderstorm watch with hail being the main threat. Due to parallel 35-40 kt flow, there's currently a chance of a tornado or two.
Yall better be careful.
Thanks for the update Bob,

Link
Here's my video if didn't catch it,


andre...good job...but i expect a suit and tie next update :-)
Quoting 16. Andrebrooks:

Yall better be careful.


If the winds back to the south, then the tornado threat increases.
Quoting ricderr:

Link
Here's my video if didn't catch it,


andre...good job...but i expect a suit and tie next update :-)
Yessir thanks.
My blog is always open.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


If the winds back to the south, then the tornado threat increases.
I wonder if high risk is out the question.
Listening to the chasers the biggest tornado threat should come from the cells that form along the dry line still out in western Oklahoma.

Storms will then move from north central Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

The current storms across central Oklahoma moving northeast are elevated and not likely to produce tornadoes.

But looks like the cell about to cross into southern Kansas could go severe soon.
Thanks Bob, and thank you NOAA for getting me off the edge...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

FRONT NOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND IS LOCATED FROM KK68-KWDG.
INSPECTION OGT HE WSR-88D DATA SHOWS THE FRONT FROM ROSALIA-
MULVANE-BLUFF CITY. INFLECTION POINT SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
MULVANE.

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SHOW THIS WELL
AND BRING CONVECTION NORTHEAST FROM THAT LOCATION. THE MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE LARGE HAIL
PARAMETER DOES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT HAIL POTENTIAL.

THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A RETROGRADING BOUNDARY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A SCENARIO VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.


WHAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE CONTINUED FOCUS ON AN AREA
THAT INCLUDES COWLEY...SUMNER...AND SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES WHERE
THESE SIGNIFICANT INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER.
THIS IS ONLY NWP
GUIDANCE...BUT THE CONSISTENCY HAS REMAINED AND IS WORTH
MENTIONING.

MOREOVER...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
TORNADOES CONTINUING AFTER DARK. PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.


In other words, Wichita is under the gun.


some dev occurring with additional popcorn clouds forming over texas panhandle moving neward towards oak/kan
Quoting 23. Andrebrooks:

I wonder if high risk is out the question.



They're only talking the watch i'm in. Wichita's under the gun today and tonight.
I would expect to see a Tornado Watch for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas probably extending into Missouri pretty soon.
Link


New blog is up about today's severe weather threat.
32. vis0
my unofficial filters I USE IN HYBRID Nws/noaa RADARS/SCANS, show in 22 mins start popping unofficial AGAIN LISTEN TO noaa radio CHECK THAT IT IS on (A
UTO OR YOU TURN on.
Thank You Mr. Henson. Just noting that so many of these type of tornado events in tornado alley are usually at their worst in the late afternoon and evening hours. A combination of the heat accumilation in the the Gulf flow during the day-time heating period from the sun at the lower levels, and the upper level cooler air mass as the sun starts to dip from above. As the t-storm cells start to mature in the afternoon, then we start to see those anvils start to form.

There have been exceptions to this (day time events) but it just seem that the worst occur later in the day-evenings. Bad all the way around when visibility starts to go down as the sun sets so folks can't always get a good visual on an approaching tornado.
What is a dry line?
Thank you for the update,Mr. Henson.
Quoting 34. Gearsts:

What is a dry line?
boundary separating moist and dry air masses
Quoting 34. Gearsts:

What is a dry line?



The boundary between warm, moist Gulf air and dry, hot continental air. These are usually found in the great plains and they usually act like cold fronts since it's a clash of airmasses.
Current weather watches for midwest

Peach - Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Green - Flash flood watch

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015
Quoting 34. Gearsts:

What is a dry line?
red line is the dry line

a strong and large major hurricane hitting florida? the fear factor will be high even before the storm. some people just act crazy evacuating. the roads will be jam packed. last decent evac we had was floyd. you should of seen the roads they were not moving. okay that was 10yrs ago. twice as many people live here maybe more? the storm is half my worries. if we get a bad one there will be alot of people saying "wish i was in kansas"
Quoting 34. Gearsts:

What is a dry line?
If you look on that graphic at 35, you can see it on visible. No clouds W of dryline.

Add: Another way to see it is to look at dewpoint temperatures.

image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.
Latest HRRR run looks considerably more dangerous, with sustained strong supercells in OK/KS for at least six hours (17:00 to 23:00 ET); previous runs were showing more QLCS segments
Just like the last two forecasts for some good rains across my area, it once again looks as if the Central IL shield is still up and formidable as ever....:/

We need rain and we haven't been getting it. Locations between I-72 and I-70 have had a dry spring. Storms air balled us this morning and appear to doing the same routine once again to our south.





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM
UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER NE OK/S CNTRL KS FORMED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE...NE-MOVING UPR IMPULSE. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS
THE UPR FEATURE CONTINUES NEWD AND STORM COLD POOLS ENLARGE/MERGE.
19Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE WELL-SAMPLED THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
LOW-LVL BUOYANCY. 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS. VEERED LOW-LVL WINDS AND EXPECTED FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL STORM OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT BROKEN LINES/CLUSTERS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE...WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVE GIVEN
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF LLJ /REF SWODY1/. THIS MAY REQUIRE THAT
PARTS OF THE WW BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO BEFORE THAT TIME.


Notice anything?
Quoting 46. ILwthrfan:

Just like the last two forecasts for some good rains across my area, it once again looks as if the Central IL shield is still up and formidable as ever....:/

We need rain and we haven't been getting it. Locations between I-72 and I-70 have had a dry spring. Storms air balled us this morning and appear to doing the same routine once again to our south.




I take it you're not trusting those 5.8 & 4.0 Xs they've had near you lately? Looking at radar, I should be getting wet, but looks pretty dry outside. Wouldn't take much to squeeze it out of atmosphere though. Hope you guys get some tonight/tomorrow!

Edit: Just heard on radio, StL NWS says baseball size hail in Sullivan, MO
These storms are very dangerous, I tell ya.
At 22:00 PM RET, Tropical Cyclone Joalane (972 hPa) located at 15.9S 65.0E has 10 minute sustained wind of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants, and up to 55 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 17.5S 65.4E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 18.8S 65.8E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 21.3S 68.2E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 24.9S 69.2E- 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
Since 1500z, the satellite pictures depict the eye shrinking then disappearing.

Joalane seems to initiate a south southeastward motion towards a barometric col. A new subtropical ridge is rebuilding in its southwest on Saturday and should steered Joalane southwards then south southwestwards.

Back in motion, Joalane is expected to re-intensify. But, according to the fluctuating intensity observed by now, the intensity forecast has been lowered.

Atmospherics environmental conditions should keep favorable until Friday under the upper level ridge axis with weak vertical wind shear and an upper level outflow channel poleward.

From Friday late or Saturday early, system is expected to weaken as it experiences the double constraints of strengthening northwesterly upper level winds and marginal heat oceanic content south of 21.0S.

Last deterministic's numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) are in good agreement about this scenario.

Joalane keeps however on representing a threat for Rodrigues island.
Quoting 30. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






I think "Immortal Avenger" or "The Last stand" might be more fitting here. JMHO
Looks like we finally got a cell forming out on the dry line in western Oklahoma.
A WARNING CLASS I CYCLONE IS IN EFFECT A RODRIGUES

The public is advised to take precautions preliminary.

External bands associated with tropical cyclone JOALANE influencing Rodrigues will cause intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms. The showers could become moderate to heavy at times. Fog pockets will be presented in some places, reducing and the visibility. Road users are advised to be cautious.

The wind will blow from the east southeast at a speed of 40 to 50 km/h with gusts to around 80 to 90 km/h in places tomorrow.

The sea will become very strong swells with the order of 4 to 5 meters.


TORNADO WARNING
MOC099-187-221-082045-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0004.150408T2020Z-150408T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 319 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF POTOSI...AND MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
POTOSI AROUND 330 PM CDT.
OLD MINES AND MINERAL POINT AROUND 335 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CADET AND BLACKWELL.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES WASHINGTON STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 9062 3796 9056 3789 9096 3806 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 254DEG 28KT 3799 9090

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

TRUETT
TWC just said a funnel cloud has been sighted with the cell to the south of St.Louis.
Quoting 43. islander101010:

a strong and large major hurricane hitting florida? the fear factor will be high even before the storm. some people just act crazy evacuating. the roads will be jam packed. last decent evac we had was floyd. you should of seen the roads they were not moving. okay that was 10yrs ago. twice as many people live here maybe more? the storm is half my worries. if we get a bad one there will be alot of people saying "wish i was in kansas"


Floyd was a major problem as it skirted the Florida coast and they had to evacuate all of the coastal areas along the way as a precaution. BTW, Floyd was in 1999; I had to travel I-95 from Miami to Jacksonville while it was off the coast of Titusville and there was not a lot of traffic that morning but the cars were blowing around a little bit when gusts came through. I had to stop for about 30 minutes at a rest-stop until the winds died down. Felt like Jim Cantore talking to my Wife on the phone with the wind blowing behind me telling her I had pulled off the road and was ok (standing in the hall outside the bathrooms at the stop with 40 mph gusts blowing through).................... :)
Impressive storm south of St. Louis

"

"">
Quoting 50. dabirds:

I take it you're not trusting those 5.8 & 4.0 Xs they've had near you lately? Looking at radar, I should be getting wet, but looks pretty dry outside. Wouldn't take much to squeeze it out of atmosphere though. Hope you guys get some tonight/tomorrow!

Edit: Just heard on radio, StL NWS says baseball size hail in Sullivan, MO


Those storms in Missouri just WSW of St. Louis are anchoring down that boundary that is orientating from Springfield MISSOURI to Cincinnati Ohio. It is effectively shutting off the potential to the northwest of that axis.

The storm complex that is SW of Joplin at the moment and Moving to the Northwest, will quickly turn East and ride that boundary ESE into Kentucky tonight, especially with that aforementioned complex near STL continuing to reinforce the cold pool left from in the wake of this mornings storms.

I-64 and I-44 will be under the gun big time tonight and already are in some places.
Don't have access to TWC at the moment but that cell we are talking about south of St. Louis is pretty intense at the moment; the hook echo is very prominent on the loops.
No confirmed tornado on the ground south of St. Louis, persistent funnel.
popcorn everywhere now shall pop soon

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
popcorn everywhere now shall pop soon



Yea, starting to see some clutter west of the dry line. We should see initiation soon.
The supercell in Missouri looks nice on reflectivity, but rotation is having a hard time staying together. 0-1km shear is only about 15kt across the region. That being said, it does look like there was a brief tornado, with reports of power lines down and roof damage.

CO2 for March 2015

401.56 ppm

co2now.org
Impressive tornado watch. Tornado threat should increase later this evening/tonight.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE ACROSS WW AREA
THROUGH LATE EVE AS CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FOCUS INVOF DEVELOPING
SRN KS SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT. MORE ISOLD STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM SSWWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE. TORNADO THREAT MAY
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH
DIURNAL CYCLE AND CONTINUE ENE MOVEMENT OF SWRN U.S. UPR LVL SPEED
MAX.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...CORFIDI
Has anyone else been having trouble with the Wunderground NEXRAD radars? Whenever I try to select another option besides the standard Base Reflectivity, it won't load, and if I click a loop, it says "Radar Down for Maintenance." It seems to be doing this for all stations.

And if Wunderground radar is malfunctioning, is there another good site to use?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 349 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 349 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 447 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 445 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 342 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 341 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

TORNADO WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 340 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Quoting 70. FlyingScotsman:

Has anyone else been having trouble with the Wunderground NEXRAD radars? Whenever I try to select another option besides the standard Base Reflectivity, it won't load, and if I click a loop, it says "Radar Down for Maintenance." It seems to be doing this for all stations.

And if Wunderground radar is malfunctioning, is there another good site to use?


classicwunderground.com
Dominator 2 just popped up in Enid, Oklahoma. They have a way of finding the tornadoes.
711  
WFUS53 KIND 082051  
TORIND  
INC027-101-082115-  
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0004.150408T2051Z-150408T2115Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
451 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
SOUTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 515 PM EDT  
 
* AT 449 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON...AND MOVING  
EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN  
DAVIESS AND SOUTHERN MARTIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING  
LOCATIONS...ALFORDSVILLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
917  
WUUS53 KLMK 082054  
SVRLMK  
KYC005-211-215-082125-  
/O.NEW.KLMK.SV.W.0042.150408T2054Z-150408T2125Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
454 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
SPENCER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
 
* UNTIL 525 PM EDT  
 
* AT 451 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
YODER...WAKEFIELD...NORMANDY...RIVALS...LITTLE MOUNT...OLIVE  
BRANCH...VAN BUREN...SOUTHVILLE...MOUNT EDEN...WAYSIDE...JUNTE...  
GEE...HARRISONVILLE...GLENSBORO...BIRDIE...ANDERSO N CITY...WADDY...  
AVENSTOKE...HEMP RIDGE AND DRYDOCK.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3816 8501 3813 8502 3812 8498 3798 8493  
3794 8516 3797 8517 3794 8536 3794 8540  
3797 8545 3807 8548 3820 8501  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 254DEG 23KT 3800 8534  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Dominator 2 just popped up in Enid, Oklahoma. They have a way of finding the tornadoes.


And driving into them.
Quoting 80. CybrTeddy:



And driving into them.
one of these days luck will run out but till then it will continue
This supercell near Bonne Terre looks like it's on a residual outflow boundary. Strange how it abruptly turned right. Sullivan got softball sized hail.
Rotating wall clouds near park hills.
Storms really firing near the Oklahoma/Texas boarder moving into the Tornado Watch area of western Oklahoma.
431  
WFUS53 KLSX 082059  
TORLSX  
MOC186-187-082130-  
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0006.150408T2059Z-150408T2130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
359 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...  
ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...  
 
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
 
* AT 357 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PARK HILLS...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
FARMINGTON AROUND 410 PM CDT.  
COFFMAN AROUND 430 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DOE RUN...LEADINGTON AND  
LIBERTYVILLE.  
 
This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0037
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.

WOUS64 KWNS 082103
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

TORNADO WATCH 37 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-133-145-151-157 -165-181-185-
189-191-193-199-090300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0037.150408T2105Z-150409T0300Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MONROE
PERRY POPE RANDOLPH
SALINE UNION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON


INC019-025-027-037-043-051-061-071-077-079-083-093 -101-117-123-
125-129-143-147-163-173-175-090300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0037.150408T2105Z-150409T0300Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS
DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON
HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON
JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE
MARTIN ORANGE PERRY
PIKE POSEY SCOTT
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
WASHINGTON


MOC017-031-093-099-123-157-186-187-221-090300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0037.150408T2105Z-150409T0300Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOLLINGER CAPE GIRARDEAU IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON PERRY
ST. FRANCOIS STE. GENEVIEVE WASHINGTON


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LMK...IND...



This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0037
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.
Quoting 44. Barefootontherocks:

If you look on that graphic at 35, you can see it on visible. No clouds W of dryline.

Add: Another way to see it is to look at dewpoint temperatures.

In my attempt to simplify, I may have misled. See the brown ruffled line in the surface analysis coming SW off the frontal boundary? That is the dryline, and maybe depicted best on the mesonet dewpoint pic as the yellow color running along the TX-OK border.

2:30 pm cdt surface analysis
Add: Note, I have made the dewpoint temp map static in this quote. the original map at comment 44 will change as conditions change.
Quoting 88. Patrap:






That storm looks like it's heading towards 62901IL. I'm hearing some thunder despite the storm being well off to my south.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Scattered severe thunderstorms in WV, central and south OH, central and south IN, central and south IL, north KY, MO, east and south-central KS, OK, except for panhandle, northwest TX near Childress, Abilene, and Wichita Falls, northwest AR.

TOR:CON
6 - central and south MO
5 - southeast and south-central KS
5 - north-central OK
4 - southwest, south-central and northeast OK
3 to 4 - central and south IL
3 - northeast KS
3 - north MO
3 - central and south IN
3 - central and south OH
3 - WV
3 - north KY

Wednesday Night, April 8, 2015
Severe thunderstorms in central and south IN, central and south IL, west KY, north and west AR, MO, south IA, east and south-central KS, OK except for panhandle, central TX.

TOR:CON
6 - southeast KS
6 - central and southwest MO
5 - southwest KS
5 - OK excluding panhandle
4 - north-central TX
3 to 4 - north AR
3 to 4 - north MO
3 to 4 - southeast MO
3 to 4 - central and south IL
3 - south-central TX
3 - northeast KS
3 - central and south IN
3 - west KY
3 - south IA
Cell crossing the boarder is taking on the classic butterfly shape.
Nice small line of potent little storm cells just came through my area. Not severe warned but a good start to the season :)
75) at least your lightning indicators working, mine haven't last 2 days. (least I have sar's site now). Seem to be celebrating that Zep victory, lots of hammer of the gods going on.

Temps coming back to dew pts (71/70) press down to 29.8" Pretty bright again too, can even see little spots of blue to NW.
Dominator 2 in chasing the severe warned cells in NW Oklahoma (near Alva) near the Kansas boarder.
Their feed sucks for some reason.
"Tornado Trackers" just to his north has a much better feed.
Large swath...
Holy chaser convergence...

100. 882MB
it begins

No severe weather here, but light snow for the past two hours. Not rare for central New Hampshire in early April yet after a winter like this one it seems a little unnecessary.
Quoting wartsttocs:
No severe weather here, but light snow for the past two hours. Not rare for central New Hampshire in early April yet after a winter like this one it seems a little unnecessary.


We were just discussing the fact that April snow is just not quite as exciting as November snow.... Although a good coating to cover up the brown of mud season is a nice visual break.

But I also just loaded the COD site, and am glad we are not having severe weather!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
one of these days luck will run out but till then it will continue


Yup Keep. One thing to do it for the science, another thing to do it "for the shot."
The last two severe weather outbreaks have been frustrating here in the St. Louis region. I routinely track storms with Nexrad radar, and toggle severe overlays and storm tracks on and off. But they haven't been working properly for several days here. (The Wundermap is nice, but very slow to load, so I usually use Nexrad.)

I have found other sources for information, and luckily (for me anyway, Sullivan & Potosi got hit pretty badly so far) the worst of today's weather is passing to my south, but c'mon! Now is a really bad time for radar malfunctions! I really hope whatever is broken gets fixed soonish.

I hope everyone is in a safe place and keeping an eye on the sky today.
Can anyone share a link to some local news coverage? Live stream?
Quoting 105. SherwoodSpirit:

The last two severe weather outbreaks have been frustrating here in the St. Louis region. I routinely track storms with Nexrad radar, and toggle severe overlays and storm tracks on and off. But they haven't been working properly for several days here. (The Wundermap is nice, but very slow to load, so I usually use Nexrad.)

I have found other sources for information, and luckily (for me anyway, Sullivan & Potosi got hit pretty badly so far) the worst of today's weather is passing to my south, but c'mon! Now is a really bad time for radar malfunctions! I really hope whatever is broken gets fixed soonish.

I hope everyone is in a safe place and keeping an eye on the sky today.



I'll say. Almost every storm last year fizzled out as it entered the metro. I'm a little bit east of you so they were even weaker.
108. wxmod
World Carbon Monoxide from NASA.

Quoting 106. skycycle:

Can anyone share a link to some local news coverage? Live stream?


Link
Blue alluded to it, but it's amazing how many chasers are out there. The number seems to grow exponentially every year. There's certainly positives and negatives to it. As a weather enthusiast I think it'd be pretty cool to be among them, and I love watching the feeds. But the danger sure is amped up. You can find chaser streams here:

Link


Now THERE'S a nice cloud! At least from this perspective, the cloud looks a bit rounded-off, as though it is rotating. RadarScope has a bit of rotation maybe trying to tighten up.



Speaking of Tornados I was finally able to watch Into the Storm on HBO..

unfortunately thats time I will never get back..Dr. Masters was spot on with his movie review..
Not surprisingly, there's a tornado warning in Kansas as supercell is approaching mature stage with better shear environment ahead.

114. 882MB
We have our first tornado warnings in OK and Kansas:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
612 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

OKC043-045-129-153-082345-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150408T2345Z/
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-WOODWARD OK-ELLIS OK-
612 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS...NORTHWESTERN DEWEY...SOUTHEASTERN WOODWARD
AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTIES...

AT 611 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMARGO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALOGA...VICI...CAMARGO AND CESTOS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 9946 3607 9949 3626 9904 3595 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 256DEG 25KT 3602 9935

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
KSC007-033-082345-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0003.150408T2315Z-150408T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
615 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 615 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUTTERMILK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN BARBER AND EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9919 3708 9929 3735 9907 3708 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 229DEG 31KT 3708 9920

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

UMSCHEID



Ben McMillan is streaming the tornadic supercell in Kansas:

Link


Best looking storm atm.
118. 882MB
Quoting 115. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ben McMillan is streaming the tornadic supercell in Kansas:

Link


I'm watching it, huge storm cloud with nice wall cloud.
Now this is an interesting cyclone. I'd say it's unhealthy, as it looks like a large piece of it is getting cut away from it. What do you guys think?

Quoting 119. AldreteMichael:

Now this is an interesting cyclone. I'd say it's unhealthy, as it looks like a large piece of it is getting cut away from it. What do you guys think?


Looks like 2 separate storms.
">

Rotation has improved a great deal with the KS storm. Bob Pack appeared to have had a large funnel with a rainbow which was pretty neat just a few minutes ago.

Edit: Spotters report a large tornado.

>CHASERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF AETNA.

Edit: Sounds like some spotters got a little excited. Atm no tornado on the ground.
122. 882MB
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

KSC007-090015-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150409T0015Z/
BARBER KS-
702 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
BARBER COUNTY...

AT 701 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...LARGE DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS AND STORM CHASERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE CITY AROUND 715 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 9898 3724 9900 3742 9887 3712 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 237DEG 29KT 3723 9886

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...2.75IN

$$

UMSCHEID

Link
My severe weather blog is always open. Scroll down to see it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ben McMillan is streaming the tornadic supercell in Kansas:

Link
Did you see a tornado on that feed?
Pulling off in a graveyard and waiting for a tornado to drop...
Quoting 124. Barefootontherocks:

Did you see a tornado on that feed?

Yes, there was a rope/cone on the ground for several minutes.
LLJ's going to increase in NW OK and S KS as night falls.
Wow, another round of storms hauling it towards me!
Line of storms fired on the dryline in west texas!
Quoting 126. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, there was a rope/cone on the ground for several minutes.
I didn't see it. About what I saw was a closer up version of this.


Missed it.
Nice pic of KS Tornado on Instagram, tweeted to me by a wublogger.
131. 882MB
The blog is not busy, I bet because we all watching live streams.
late evening overdrive

Quoting 131. 882MB:

The blog is not busy, I bet because we all watching live streams.
I had something to eat took a nap
not going to see much in the dark other than a brief look in between lightening flashes
Quoting 130. Barefootontherocks:

Nice pic of KS Tornado on Instagram, tweeted to me by a wublogger.
Intense storm..Hope all were warned.
Guess the 50+ kt. LLJ won't really make up for loss of daytime heating.




I'm seeing some lightning with this line of storms off to my south, one storm near Lonedell which is severe.


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 813 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 MOC071-099-090145- /O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-150409T0145Z/ FRANKLIN MO-JEFFERSON MO- 813 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT... AT 810 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONEDELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN LONEDELL. IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CEDAR HILL...DITTMER...OERMANN...ROBERTSVILLE...CATAWISS A AND SCOTSDALE. THIS WARNING INCLUDES ROBERTSVILLE STATE PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. && LAT...LON 3823 9080 3830 9092 3849 9083 3841 9055 TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 225DEG 28KT 3833 9079 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...<50MPH
Quoting 136. hydrus:

Intense storm..Hope all were warned.
and to think tomorrow it will all get going again

we are going to reach 65 I think tomorrow evening
jnto Friday then cool down back to the high 40's for a couple
then looks like warming will be well under way with temps becoming more seasonal
as spring moves along been cooler than normal spring so far
lets see what april does I guess
Warnings

8:58 PM EDT Wednesday 08 April 2015
Rainfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Periods of rain, at times heavy, are expected on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is also likely to be associated. Rainfall amounts will be variable, with average amounts in the 20 to 30 mm range. However 40 to 50 mm may be possible in some locales due to very heavy rainfall in thunderstorms.

Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Don't approach washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall Warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
The CVS has freezing temps for the Eastern U.S...I doubt it , but its possible....Link
141. 882MB
TORNADO WARNING
KSC173-090200-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0009.150409T0132Z-150409T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
832 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 832 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GARDEN
PLAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLWICH...GARDEN PLAIN...MOUNT HOPE AND ANDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9776 3774 9770 3782 9770 3790 9765
3783 9747 3763 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 213DEG 10KT 3771 9769

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

BILLINGS WRIGHT

the power of the Ham Radio..reporting tornado on the ground in Andale, KS
Quoting 142. ncstorm:

the power of the Ham Radio..
QSL
Image from GRLevel 3 on that tornado warned storm; Duel frame, velocities on the left with a not overly strong but well defined couplet, and a hook echo with possible (not confirmed) debris ball on the right. No apparent towns in the area but maybe some tree debris, and there has been a reported touchdown. Andale would be in the path.

Nice little couplet on this storm.

Quoting 145. WIBadgerWeather:

Nice little couplet on this storm.





Possible tornado southeast of sumner but the couplet looks weaker.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 843 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 KSC173-090200- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150409T0200Z/ SEDGWICK KS- 843 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY... AT 843 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ANDALE...OR NEAR COLWICH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COLWICH...MOUNT HOPE AND ANDALE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3773 9771 3774 9770 3782 9770 3790 9765 3783 9747 3767 9764 TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 218DEG 12KT 3775 9763 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...1.75IN
Quoting 144. MAweatherboy1:

Image from GRLevel 3 on that tornado warned storm; Duel frame, velocities on the left with a not overly strong but well defined couplet, and a hook echo with possible (not confirmed) debris ball on the right. No apparent towns in the area but maybe some tree debris, and there has been a reported touchdown. Andale would be in the path.




Me thinks dual-pol is picking up a small, but strong debris ball. Note the little pink dot I have circled.

Thankfully the warned area is just a tad northwest of the Wichita suburbs.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 850 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 KSC173-090200- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150409T0200Z/ SEDGWICK KS- 850 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY... AT 850 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER COLWICH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COLWICH...MOUNT HOPE AND ANDALE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 3782 9770 3790 9765 3783 9747 3771 9760 TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 219DEG 13KT 3778 9757 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...1.75IN
latest NA strikes

Quoting 149. wxgeek723:

Thankfully the warned area is just a tad northwest of the Wichita suburbs.


I am more worried about Colwich (according to Google, pop. of 1,327) taking a hit on the south side of town.
For MAweatherboy1 and wxgeek723:

Just got back from spending all day in Montgomery with my future mother in law, who's in the hospital. IEMBot is not working for me. I can see the warnings on the main page for each station but trying to bring up details gets me all kinds of time out errors. Maybe the server is being hammered. It appears from looking at the radars that the Wichita area is the main focus of tornadoes this evening. The SPC storm report page has only seven tornadoes, five of which are clearly the same tornadoes, so really three tornadoes. That's many fewer than I expected to see and good news so far. Looks like the storms in MO and IL never really developed after this morning but the storms in Ohio are still going strong although most below severe levels. Louisville KY has had over 15" of rain in the last couple of days. It's 62 in Cincinnati and 37 in Cleveland so that's quite a temperature gradient.

All we had today was a few scattered cumulus clouds but it was as hot and humid as anmy July day. The high was 94 and it's 76 now. It's really amazing that, with all this heat and humidity, we can scour up enough instability for just a normal summer thunderstorm.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
QSL
10-4, good buddy. :-) A belated happy birthday BTW. I actually remembered on Saturday but I guess you were out doing {gasp!} fun things away from the computer.
as of 6 mins ago cells in kanas

157. 882MB
New tornado warning in OK.

TORNADO WARNING
OKC039-043-090245-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0004.150409T0158Z-150409T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
858 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

*AT 858 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HAMMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTLER AND PUTNAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 9898 3581 9889 3568 9887 3559 9935
3569 9938 3570 9938
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 245DEG 29KT 3566 9931

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.75IN

$$

KURTZ

Quoting 155. sar2401:

10-4, good buddy. :-) A belated happy birthday BTW. I actually remembered on Saturday but I guess you were out doing {gasp!} fun things away from the computer.
my birthday is in sept just after the end of summer on the 28th maybe some QRM there

but thanks anyway
here is that cell nw oak



5 mins ago
Never mind the Washington Post energy and environment page is back.
Quoting 144. MAweatherboy1:

...a hook echo with possible (not confirmed) debris ball on the right....
Quoting 148. WIBadgerWeather:



Me thinks dual-pol is picking up a small, but strong debris ball.

That's not what that is.

And FYI... you can't really say what dual pol is or is not picking up by looking at base reflectivity. Base reflectivity is not a dual pol base product.* Differential reflectivity is better but RHO/CC is much more telling. Unfortunately the areas of increased ZDR and decreased RHO/CC are in a low reflectivity area, which can much more easily be contaminated with things other than debris. In the context of the other data (velocity, spectrum width), it does not appear very likely that debris is what is being detected.

*To clarify, this wasn't specifically directed at you, but rather in general, as I've seen people look at higher reflectivity on regular base reflectivity and say "Dual pol says..."
Quoting 161. ScottLincoln:


That's not what that is.

And FYI... you can't really say what dual pol is or is not picking up by looking at base reflectivity. Base reflectivity is not a dual pol base product. Differential reflectivity is better but RHO/CC is much more telling. Unfortunately the areas of increased ZDR and decreased RHO/CC are in a low reflectivity area, which can much more easily be contaminated with things other than debris. In the context of the other data (velocity, spectrum width), it does not appear very likely that debris is what is being detected.
well that got complicated fast but you would know
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



The METCRAX II field experiment: A study of downslope windstorm-type flows in Arizona's Meteor Crater

!!! Difficult decisions: Migration from Small Island Developing States under climate change


*** For Some Wisconsin State Workers, 'Climate Change' Isn't Something You Can Talk About

Unhappy 21st birthday for UK's nuclear white elephants


*** Violent formation of the moon: New view



*** Complex organic molecules discovered in infant star system: Hints that building blocks of chemistry of life are universal

* Ice on Mars: Mars has belts of glaciers consisting of frozen water




*** Scientists predict gradual, prolonged permafrost greenhouse gas emissions, allowing us more time to adapt


!!! Fountain of youth uncovered in mammary glands of mice, by breast cancer researchers

*** Recipe for saving coral reefs: Add more fish



* Bacteria inhibit bat-killing fungus, could combat white-nose syndrome




Don't make me into a farmer: Northern Europeans to Neolithic interlopers

Strategies identified that allow marine sponge to survive in Antarctic, tropical latitudes


Black flamingo, possibly unique, spotted in Cyprus



* The Arctic has lost so much ice that now people want to race yachts through it

!!! If We Dig Out All Our Fossil Fuels, Here's How Hot We Can Expect It to Get


Shorter Stature May Pose Higher Risk of Heart Disease Bah!

Rama people worry Nicaraguan canal will 'destroy' them (video)

As sea lions migrate to Oregon, salmon population is at risk (video)




Significant Tornado Parameter (fixed layer)

A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind difference (6BWD), 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH1), surface parcel CAPE (sbCAPE), and surface parcel LCL height (sbLCL). This version of STP mimics the original formulation presented by Thompson et al. (2003) by using fixed-layer calculations of vertical shear, and substitutes the surface lifted parcels as an alternative to the ML parcels in the "effective layer" version of STP.

The index is formulated as follows:

STP = (sbCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-sbLCL)/1000 m) * (SRH1/150 m2 s-2) * (6BWD/20 m s-1)

The sbLCL term is set to 1.0 when sbLCL 2000 m; the 6BWD term is capped at a value of 1.5 for 6BWD > 30 m s-1, and set to 0.0 when 6BWD < 12.5 m s-1.

A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings

Nice bit of mathematics used here to get this index.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my birthday is in sept just after the end of summer on the 28th

but thanks anyway
Seriously? I would have sworn you said it was Saturday last week...and you're the only Keeper I know. I'll put it in my calendar for September though> :-)
Quoting 154. sar2401:

Just got back from spending all day in Montgomery with my future mother in law, who's in the hospital. IEMBot is not working for me. I can see the warnings on the main page for each station but trying to bring up details gets me all kinds of time out errors. Maybe the server is being hammered. It appears from looking at the radars that the Wichita area is the main focus of tornadoes this evening. The SPC storm report page has only seven tornadoes, five of which are clearly the same tornadoes, so really three tornadoes. That's many fewer than I expected to see and good news so far. Looks like the storms in MO and IL never really developed after this morning but the storms in Ohio are still going strong although most below severe levels. Louisville KY has had over 15" of rain in the last couple of days. It's 62 in Cincinnati and 37 in Cleveland so that's quite a temperature gradient.

All we had today was a few scattered cumulus clouds but it was as hot and humid as anmy July day. The high was 94 and it's 76 now. It's really amazing that, with all this heat and humidity, we can scour up enough instability for just a normal summer thunderstorm.

It got up to 94? geez we had 81 in Baldwin Co.
Quoting 119. AldreteMichael:

Now this is an interesting cyclone. I'd say it's unhealthy, as it looks like a large piece of it is getting cut away from it. What do you guys think?



Here is the same storm when it was 93S, before it became a well defined single eyed entity. Pretty neat the two parts showed themselves again..
Quoting 151. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

latest NA strikes


Greetings Keeps..The image looks more like August....Until the front sweeps through..By the way, did you see the latest CVS model.?.. wants to bring more freezing temperatures to Eastern Canada and U.S....long way out, but it is possible....Link

Quoting 168. Skyepony:


Here is the same storm when it was 93S, before it became a well defined single eyed entity. Pretty neat the two parts showed themselves again..

The left one looks like a face..:)
Quoting 166. BaltimoreBrian:

Worcester, lugubrious Worcester
The City of Ice and Fog
Where the only way to keep warm
Is to drink up all your grog

lugubrious-
adjective- lu·gu·bri·ous \lu̇-ˈgü-brē-əs -

Full of sadness or sorrow : very sad especially in an exaggerated or insincere way

I thought I had a few strange words....:)
The second half of April should be much cooler over the eastern two/thirds(including Florida) then the first half(judging by the troughs dipping down around Japan/Korea).
Quoting 170. hydrus:

The left one looks like a face..:)

That's why I saved the pic. Think we are looking at the back of the head of the other..
Quoting 165. sar2401:

Seriously? I would have sworn you said it was Saturday last week...and you're the only Keeper I know. I'll put it in my calendar for September though> :-)
maybe a little QRM there along the way

lol
Quoting 169. hydrus:

Greetings Keeps..The image looks more like August....Until the front sweeps through..By the way, did you see the latest CVS model.?.. wants to bring more freezing temperatures to Eastern Canada and U.S....long way out, but it is possible
I don't care spring cleaning outside is april 15
next wed
I redo my blog as well to tropical layout
weather warm or not its being done
Just had the first real Tstorm of the season in S C IL, still rumbling. Had some isolated last week, but this really lit up the sky and boomed. No real winds, came down hard w/ it, still hear some falling. Liked that 6 pm Super Predictor did not have what is supposed to come thru at 3-4 am look nearly as bad as it did at noon, will see how looks at 10. Speaking of which, better go or I'll miss it. Stay safe!
Quoting 173. Skyepony:


That's why I saved the pic. Think we are looking at the back of the head of the other..
I saw a dragon once..about four years ago out in the Atlantic with the water vapor imaging...Of course i didnt book mark it
Quoting 175. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I don't care spring cleaning outside is april 15
next wed
I redo my blog as well to tropical layout
weather warm or not its being done


LOL... File taxes and clean out... Well, I guess you don't do that on April 15th in Canada....

Quoting 172. weatherbro:

The second half of April should be much cooler over the eastern two/thirds(including Florida) then the first half(judging by the troughs dipping down around Japan/Korea).
I could do a whole summer of 60's and 70's no problem be better than oppressive heat and parched ground
Quoting 175. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I don't care spring cleaning outside is april 15
next wed
I redo my blog as well to tropical layout
weather warm or not its being done
I too did spring cleaning today, and snapped more pics of my poor trees that suffered yet another whacking. One day I will post them....There is more coming according to the local Mets
Quoting 178. Dakster:



LOL... File taxes and clean out... Well, I guess you don't do that on April 15th in Canada....


yes we do taxes by april 15 already done on march 17th e-filed
Quoting 179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I could do a whole summer of 60's and 70's no problem be better than oppressive heat and parched ground


I'd be happy if it stayed 30s - 50s like it is now up here. (F not C) Where I am soon it will feel like 30C - 50C.
Quoting WeatherBAC:

It got up to 94? geez we had 81 in Baldwin Co.
Yeah, it was blazing hot here. 92 at the airport and 94 on my weather station. It certainly felt like it. I suspect it was cooler there because you had more sea breeze influence. I'm too far from the coast to benefit from that. It has been in the high 80's for the past 5 days and it's still 73 now. Way too hot for April.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes we do taxes by april 15 already done on march 17th e-filed
I really hate people that are so on top of things...
Quoting 181. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes we do taxes by april 15 already done on march 17th e-filed


I didn't know we actually matched on Tax Day date... Cool...
Nice and Toasty up there Dakster!!!!
Quoting 183. sar2401:

Yeah, it was blazing hot here. 92 at the airport and 94 on my weather station. It certainly felt like it. I suspect it was cooler there because you had more sea breeze influence. I'm too far from the coast to benefit from that. It has been in the high 80's for the past 5 days and it's still 73 now. Way too hot for April.


Can't hardly wait until August can you?

I haven't filed my 2012 taxes yet....
Quoting 186. PedleyCA:

Nice and Toasty up there Dakster!!!!


Sorta and weird weather (for me). It snowed like no tomorrow all day. But didn't stick. I believe the 3" of snow weather report - might have been more. My PWS says 39F out at the moment.

I gotta do a stint in Florida for awhile so I will miss it...

Get any.... Rain?
Quoting 180. hydrus:

I too did spring cleaning today, and snapped more pics of my poor trees that suffered yet another whacking. One day I will post them....There is more coming according to the local Mets

got a mess too clean up here
rough winter to cold too pick frozen garage
so it has sat till now
that's first
then blow the property with the blowers
replace plants in planters
air raid the lawn fertilize
for re-grow place dirt along the walks and curbs with grass seed from salt burn
redo round about evergreens
which have all turned orange from frostburn and saltburn
then do the first lawn cut first week of may
flowers planted affer may 6 last on the list
Quoting 188. Dakster:



Sorta and weird weather (for me). It snowed like no tomorrow all day. But didn't stick. I believe the 3" of snow weather report - might have been more. My PWS says 39F out at the moment.

I gotta do a stint in Florida for awhile so I will miss it...

Get any.... Rain?


Yes, a freaking deluge, .04
Quoting 183. sar2401:

Yeah, it was blazing hot here. 92 at the airport and 94 on my weather station. It certainly felt like it. I suspect it was cooler there because you had more sea breeze influence. I'm too far from the coast to benefit from that. It has been in the high 80's for the past 5 days and it's still 73 now. Way too hot for April.

Im usually pretty aware of the weather throughout the state, but have recently had other things to focus on (Midwest Severe Weather) anyway how long has it been like that, down here it has been anywhere from 75-84 for probably about a month and a half.
Quoting 158. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my birthday is in sept just after the end of summer on the 28th maybe some QRM there

but thanks anyway


most people would have said "my birthday is sept 28th" but i like ur version :)
Quoting 190. PedleyCA:



Yes, a freaking deluge, .04


I hope your house didn't flood.
Quoting 189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


got a mess too clean up here
rough winter to cold too pick frozen garage
so it has sat till now
that's first
then blow the property with the blowers
replace plants in planters
air raid the lawn fertilize
for re-grow place dirt along the walks and curbs with grass seed from salt burn
redo round about evergreens
which have all turned orange from frostburn and saltburn
then do the first lawn cut first week of may
flowers planted affer may 6 last on the list

Yep..Picked up countless smaller branch to mow. Picked up around two tonnes of big ones. Stlll not as bad as the storm three years ago. Oak and Black Walnuts dropped branches the size of full grown trees. A huge mess and did do significant damage to fence and gate. Our house has been great other than a broken window...no biggie..:)
Another view of the tornado near Medicine Lodge, Kansas earlier, via Twitter:

Quoting 195. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Another view of the tornado near Medicine Lodge, Kansas earlier, via Twitter:


I pray to God I never see one of those coming towards us. We had a couple close calls here.
everything coming into play now going to be an interesting 24 to 36 hrs coming up

Quoting 196. hydrus:

I pray to God I never see one of those coming towards us. We had a couple close calls here.
if ya do run fast very very fast more so if it looks as if its standing still but getting larger that means its coming straight for ya where you are standing
Quoting WeatherBAC:

Im usually pretty aware of the weather throughout the state, but have recently had other things to focus on (Midwest Severe Weather) anyway how long has it been like that, down here it has been anywhere from 75-84 for probably about a month and a half.
It's been warmer than normal since our last cold snap but it's been really hot for a week. Not the usual hot either, but with high humidity instead of of the usual dry air. Even with the humidity I'm still not getting hardly any clouds and nothing that turns into a thunderstorm. This will now be the second episode of severe weather that will not affect us in south Alabama. I don't expect that luck to last forever but it has been one of the quietest springs I remember.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Another view of the tornado near Medicine Lodge, Kansas earlier, via Twitter:

Really strange how fast all the weather in the Witchita area has just dried up. I expected to see storms thought the night but I guess a dry slot moved in and sucked it all up. Wichita doesn't mention the reasons in the 10:52 update, only says that convection has greatly diminished and they've canceled the tornado watch.
Quoting Dakster:


Can't hardly wait until August can you?

I haven't filed my 2012 taxes yet....
I think August as already arrived. It was a short spring. I'll pay my money and file my usual extension. You have no idea how much I wish we just had a national sales tax on April 15.
202. vis0
Quoting 163. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



The METCRAX II field experiment: A study of downslope windstorm-type flows in Arizona's Meteor Crater

!!! Difficult decisions: Migration from Small Island Developing States under climate change


*** For Some Wisconsin State Workers, 'Climate Change' Isn't Something You Can Talk About

Unhappy 21st birthday for UK's nuclear white elephants


*** Violent formation of the moon: New view



*** Complex organic molecules discovered in infant star system: Hints that building blocks of chemistry of life are universal

* Ice on Mars: Mars has belts of glaciers consisting of frozen water




*** Scientists predict gradual, prolonged permafrost greenhouse gas emissions, allowing us more time to adapt


!!! Fountain of youth uncovered in mammary glands of mice, by breast cancer researchers

*** Recipe for saving coral reefs: Add more fish



* Bacteria inhibit bat-killing fungus, could combat white-nose syndrome




Don't make me into a farmer: Northern Europeans to Neolithic interlopers

Strategies identified that allow marine sponge to survive in Antarctic, tropical latitudes


= = = >>> Black flamingo, possibly unique, spotted in Cyprus



* The Arctic has lost so much ice that now people want to race yachts through it

!!! If We Dig Out All Our Fossil Fuels, Here's How Hot We Can Expect It to Get


Shorter Stature May Pose Higher Risk of Heart Disease Bah!

Rama people worry Nicaraguan canal will 'destroy' them (video)

As sea lions migrate to Oregon, salmon population is at risk (video)
OR stay tuned to NOAA , WxU for the latest watches & warnings. 

WxU should have a bottom of screen text scroll linked to tweets or hashtags with "severe wx" or "wx(YrYrMnMnDtDt") that shot update scrolls as they are posted.  In NYc that was done in the 1980s (from a privately owned cable studio i'd type in weather alerts, before WxChs NWS red screens...heck it was 1984...no WxCh,  didn't work to well i can only type 25 "wuerds" per minute, lasted for 3 tries/storms. Later 1990s by NYUniversity techs, a show called "Yorb" where one was floating around over an imaginary "world/globe" on the internet & on TV and was interactive as posting tweets BEFORE twitter, using the dialtone to move the globe to made up communities. By sheer luck i was one of their first victims i mean callers as i stumbled upon their first show and went by my long time aka  "mrX".

i can hear sar2401 saying..."WxU add more MB eating graphics, at that rate it'll rain in S. Alabama before the WxU pg loads..."

Maybe as a separate page which one can open and dock it as a floating following mini-window to the WxU blog IF THEIR COMPU'R/CONNECTION is "fast enough"

stay tuned to NOAA , WxU for the latest watches & warnings. 

Quoting 201. sar2401:

I think August as already arrived. It was a short spring. I'll pay my money and file my usual extension. You have no idea how much I wish we just had a national sales tax on April 15.


I wish that too... National sales tax would just make things so much easier.
Regarding the article about Mars BB posted.

Too bad that one of the rovers didn't land on a glacier... Wouldn't it have been nice to actually verify that there is frozen water on Mars. If we *think* that at one point in time we are going to colonize Mars - wouldn't a verifiable source of water be like TOP priority. Who wants to land in an area with no water nearby, you know, like present day California?
Quoting 200. sar2401:

Really strange how fast all the weather in the Witchita area has just dried up. I expected to see storms thought the night but I guess a dry slot moved in and sucked it all up. Wichita doesn't mention the reasons in the 10:52 update, only says that convection has greatly diminished and they've canceled the tornado watch.

Cap.

Quoting 205. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Cap.




I think you missed a 'r' there...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cap.

I don't remember seeing a cap develop this late at night after such an active day of convection. What caused it?
Quoting Dakster:


I wish that too... National sales tax would just make things so much easier.
It would also assure that those operating in the black economy paid their fair share of taxes as well. Except for the 20o,000 people employed by the IRS, the hundreds of thousands of CPA's and tax preparers, and the shark lawyers that make their money from tax cases, it would be easy to pass too. Unfortunately, us average folks don't have very good lobbyists.
Quoting vis0:
OR stay tuned to NOAA , WxU for the latest watches & warnings.

WxU should have a bottom of screen text scroll linked to tweets or hashtags with "severe wx" or "wx(YrYrMnMnDtDt") that shot update scrolls as they are posted. In NYc that was done in the 1980s (from a privately owned cable studio i'd type in weather alerts, before WxChs NWS red screens...heck it was 1984...no WxCh, didn't work to well i can only type 25 "wuerds" per minute, lasted for 3 tries/storms. Later 1990s by NYUniversity techs, a show called "Yorb" where one was floating around over an imaginary "world/globe" on the internet & on TV and was interactive as posting tweets BEFORE twitter, using the dialtone to move the globe to made up communities. By sheer luck i was one of their first victims i mean callers as i stumbled upon their first show and went by my long time aka "mrX".

i can hear sar2401 saying..."WxU add more MB eating graphics, at that rate it'll rain in S. Alabama before the WxU pg loads..."

Maybe as a separate page which one can open and dock it as a floating following mini-window to the WxU blog IF THEIR COMPU'R/CONNECTION is "fast enough"

stay tuned to NOAA , WxU for the latest watches & warnings.

It's actually a good idea as long as it's a feature that can be turned on and off to stop this site from sucking more free RAM than it already does. Little problem filtering all the obscenity that's associated with some of these hashtags however. I'm always surprised by people who seem otherwise intelligent who can't seem to stop themselves from adding an F bomb in every 5 words or so. Maybe I'm just old fashioned but I can still remember getting my mouth washed out with soap for that kind of thing. Luckily, I did not end up with soap poisoning. :-)

EDIT: That black flamingo's OK now. He got a big settlement from BP. Got all his feathers repainted, and he's now living on an island with a couple of servant flamingoes that bring him fish.
Funny Sar... Very Funny with the Flamingo...

Yes, people make money off our complicated as all heck IRS rules.
211. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu though colours are not the original Colorado product.
SUBJECT:: Sat Recap of USofA weather includes severe weather of the MidWest, Central USofA.
D&T::201504-08;0315UTC_201504-09;0545 UTC (-4hrs for EDT)
http://youtu.be/ge32-qpfhAY(908x476)
212. vis0
Quoting 208. sar2401:

It would also assure that those operating in the black economy paid their fair share of taxes as well. Except for the 20o,000 people employed by the IRS, the hundreds of thousands of CPA's and tax preparers, and the shark lawyers that make their money from tax cases, it would be easy to pass too. Unfortunately, us average folks don't have very good lobbyists.
...ourselves..to blame...as WE THE PEOPLE have become THE wee (as in "too unimportant to be thought of") PEOPLE.
213. vis0
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
Forgot to post this last week (maybe that was a good thing) when some here where mentioning how much it would cost to move water to California and for now desalinization is the best choice.

As a weird thought this entered my mind.

For short distances how 'bout copying the body's mechanism to transfer fluids. Build a long rubber like tube within a protective solid outer tube . The inside rubber like tube is fitted with heat sensitive materials that contract / expand to low currents. Circuitry controls the rubber like tubes as if they where intestinal muscles and forces water in either direction, the first few contractions are large so the momentum of water keeps it going "forward" (no need to build 2 pipelines one heading west other east...if both areas have a drought we flip a coin to decide in which direction the water flows and let Phil "fans f-bombD" Luckett decide if its heads, tail or other...credit to Phil he hung in there).
Think of it, one end acts like the esophagus other end ...e-ewww.
No brain cells were harmed during this comment...they were already damaged

A little levity before we have more serious weather

Quoting 213. vis0:


A little levity before we have more serious weather
Heh. This blog is a little TOO dismal during extreme weather. Maybe understandably, but imo a little flippancy goes a long way to amelioration/adaptation to disaster.


Tampa Bay area, might approach record highs today.
Yesterday's storm reports

the blog dwells on the negatives alot of the time. hardly ever hear about the positives. so how much rain did north calif. get? Is there anymore rain forecasted?
TSR April forecast numbers are (11/5/2). They cite uncertainties about ENSO that loom large going torwards the August forecast.

TSR Document pdf
Quoting 218. islander101010:

the blog dwells on the negatives alot of the time. hardly ever hear about the positives. so how much rain did north calif. get? Is there anymore rain forecasted?

Just tell us, you're very welcome to do so :-)
Good Morning..

Stormy morning over here..

Quoting islander101010:
the blog dwells on the negatives alot of the time. hardly ever hear about the positives. so how much rain did north calif. get? Is there anymore rain forecasted?


Past 7 Days
Really just a drop in the bucket for what they need. Southern Ca. didn't get much at all.
But a little rain is better than no rain.




Very favorable jet stream set up for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes later today across the Plains.
Quoting islander101010:
the blog dwells on the negatives alot of the time. hardly ever hear about the positives. so how much rain did north calif. get? Is there anymore rain forecasted?
It's tought--and ultimately pointless--to put lipstick on this particular pig:
California Rain, Snow: Welcome Sight but 'Too Little, Too Late'

"Rain and mountain snow returning to California early this week is a welcome sight but will do little to ease the historic drought gripping the state.

"A storm will push across California through Tuesday night, spreading rain across the state as well as delivering much-needed snow to the Sierra Nevada.

"This comes just days after California Gov. Jerry Brown announced the first-ever statewide mandatory water restrictions in an effort to reduce water usage due to the drought.

"Unfortunately, an end to those water restrictions will not come with this storm. As AccuWeather.com Western Weather Expert Ken Clark stated, "the rain and snow early this week is too little, too late for any drought relief."

"With such a severe deficit of rain and snow over the past four years, the amount of rain and snow from this one storm will have virtually no effect on the seriousness of the current drought."
If anyone is interested,TSR has just released its forecast for the2015 Atlantic hurricane season,as of April 9,2015. They are,in they're definition calling for a season with about 45 percent activity below the long term average of 11,6,3. ACE:56. You can find this at tropicalstormrisk.com.Also, this bears watching, because the ACE index for lanffalling cyclones is at 25 for being defined as above normal, and 25 percent for being defined as near normal, and a 50 percent chance as being defined as below normal. So there is a 50/50 chance of one or more landfalling cyclones affecting the US this year, but however, forecast uncertainties remain large at this time.P.S: I don't even think they even mentioned enso in the download as if it was a non factor this hurricane season.
Quoting 225. tiggerhurricanes2001:

If anyone is interested,TSR has just released its forecast for the2015 Atlantic hurricane season,as of April 9,2015. They are,in they're definition calling for a season with about 45 percent activity below the long term average of 11,6,3. ACE:56. You can find this at tropicalstormrisk.com.Also, this bears watching, because the ACE index for lanffalling cyclones is at 25 for being defined as above normal, and 25 percent for being defined as near normal, and a 50 percent chance as being defined as below normal. So there is a 50/50 chance of one or more landfalling cyclones affecting the US this year, but however, forecast uncertainties remain large at this time.P.S: I don't even think they even mentioned enso in the download as if it was a non factor this hurricane season.


See post #219 for link.
Quoting 222. Sfloridacat5:



Past 7 Days
Really just a drop in the bucket for what they need. Southern Ca. didn't get much at all.

Quoting 217. Sfloridacat5:

Yesterday's storm reports




Yesterdays event was a major BUST. All the hype and not much was delivered. I was shocked at how so many chasers were chasing just average thunderstorms especially TWC. I was very annoyed watching TWC last night. Its like the severe weather season has been so slow that now we have resulted to chasing average storms. Even a reported from OKC said it has been very unusual this year as most of the storms have missed the city either NW or SE.

Quoting 216. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area, might approach record highs today.


Klystron might want to consider raising rain chances next week as both the GFS and Euro look wet every afternoon. We may see a period of 40% to 60% rain chances everyday starting Saturday thru the end of next week into next weekend.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yesterdays event was a major BUST. All the hype and not much was delivered. I was shocked at how so many chasers were chasing just average thunderstorms especially TWC. I was very annoyed watching TWC last night. Its like the severe weather season has been so slow that now we have resulted to chasing average storms. Even a reported from OKC said it has been very unusual this year as most of the storms have missed the city either NW or SE.



Not too exciting, but had the dry line setup over Oklahoma City or Tulsa and dropped a tornado in the middle of the city it would be a different story today.
The tornado that formed near Medicine Lodge was quite impressive for a short period of time. I could only imagine that tornado in the middle of a city.
Today was supposed to be the day with the higher chances of tornadoes. It will be interesting to see how today goes.
Tweets from Dr. Phil Klotzbach about this years hurricane season look grim. Official forecast is being released in a hour.

Eric Blake retweeted
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach · 9h 9 hours ago
Seasonal hurricane forecast released live from the National Tropical Weather Conference tomorrow, April 9 at 10am EDT. @HurricaneCon
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yesterdays event was a major BUST. All the hype and not much was delivered.
n/t
Chile getting flooded out again this time in Northern Chile. Sure sign we are about to have a major El-Nino coming as the atmosphere is locked in for a big event. Sorry folks!

Anthony Sagliani @anthonywx · 16h 16 hours ago
Devastating Floods Hit Northern Chile http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/04/devastati ng-floods-hit-northern-chile/390024/?utm_source=SF Twitter … via @TheAtlantic


http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/04/devastat ing-floods-hit-northern-chile/390024/?utm_source=S FTwitter
Quoting 230. Sfloridacat5:



Not too exciting, but had the dry line setup over Oklahoma City or Tulsa and dropped a tornado in the middle of the city it would be a different story today.
The tornado that formed near Medicine Lodge was quite impressive for a short period of time. I could only imagine that tornado in the middle of a city.
Today was supposed to be the day with the higher chances of tornadoes. It will be interesting to see how today goes.


Some of the storms had little in the way of lightning as well which means there must have been a cap in place. I've noticed that here as well lately storms look heavy on radar but little in the way of lightning. I think all this heat so early has caused a large thermal cap across the Gulf Coast of the US but it appears that Cap may finally break this weekend.
235. yoboi
Quoting 224. Neapolitan:

It's tought--and ultimately pointless--to put lipstick on this particular pig:
California Rain, Snow: Welcome Sight but 'Too Little, Too Late'

"Rain and mountain snow returning to California early this week is a welcome sight but will do little to ease the historic drought gripping the state.

"A storm will push across California through Tuesday night, spreading rain across the state as well as delivering much-needed snow to the Sierra Nevada.

"This comes just days after California Gov. Jerry Brown announced the first-ever statewide mandatory water restrictions in an effort to reduce water usage due to the drought.

"Unfortunately, an end to those water restrictions will not come with this storm. As AccuWeather.com Western Weather Expert Ken Clark stated, "the rain and snow early this week is too little, too late for any drought relief."

"With such a severe deficit of rain and snow over the past four years, the amount of rain and snow from this one storm will have virtually no effect on the seriousness of the current drought."



With the El Nino the pattern for California is changing...by this time next year should see a change with the drought...weather goes thru cycles...They have been in a drought before and bounced back....It's part of the climate there you know...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Some of the storms had little in the way of lightning as well which means there must have been a cap in place. I've noticed that here as well lately storms look heavy on radar but little in the way of lightning. I think all this heat so early has caused a large thermal cap across the Gulf Coast of the US but it appears that Cap may finally break this weekend.


A lot of dry air also got into the mix yesterday. It helped increase the shear, but it also dried out the atmosphere in the area where the tornadoes were forming.
Dr. Forbes was talking about it last night. If the dry line had punched further east into higher dewpoints (central or eastern Oklahoma), we would have seen a lot more development.

Here's a nice video of the tornado near Medicine Lodge. Quite impressive tornado at about the 2 minute mark.
That could have been a disaster had it hit a large city.

Video of one of yesterday's tornadoes.
Link
The numbers for this hurricane season hinges on the forecast of an El Nino episode. April forecast are usually not dependable.
Quoting 235. yoboi:



With the El Nino the pattern for California is changing...by this time next year should see a change with the drought...weather goes thru cycles...They have been in a drought before and bounced back....It's part of the climate there you know...


California is in for a very and I mean very wet 6 months starting this October. It could see a case where California erases 3 years of drought in 6 months. Just look at what is going on in Chile getting very serious down there as the Death Toll continues to climb from raging floods in areas that just don't get much rain at all.
Quoting 235. yoboi:



With the El Nino the pattern for California is changing...by this time next year should see a change with the drought...weather goes thru cycles...They have been in a drought before and bounced back....It's part of the climate there you know...


Looks like just another cycle to me...wait, no, things are exacerbated by a warming world. If you can't understand that simple concept, then there is really no hope, Yoboi. Just keep telling yourself, everything is completely normal.



Quoting 233. StormTrackerScott:

Chile getting flooded out again this time in Northern Chile. Sure sign we are about to have a major El-Nino coming as the atmosphere is locked in for a big event. [snip]
http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/04/devastat ing-floods-hit-northern-chile/390024/?utm_source=S FTwitter

Fortunately linked article is still about the same devastating flood some days ago, not a new one, Scott.
Link
Good Morning. All of the May forecasts for the Atlantic will be tweaked in August based on the real time set-up for the Cape Verde season (about 85% of all Atlantic season tropical storms occur in the peak period) so I take these early ones with a big grain of salt. As we have noted over the past 3-4 seasons, while the major prediction outlets have been close to the numbers "guesses" based on the science/factors, the biggest surprise is that they have all pretty much over-calculated the number of majors (we have seen a much higher percentage of tropical storms vs. hurricanes (including majors) the past few years. All other things being equal, what has been missing the last several seasons has been a real healthy and moist ITCZ (all of the dry-stable air issues in the Central Atlantic) and the struggling tropical storms have not been able to generate enough moisture to fight off the dry air in the Central Atlantic and Caribbean the last few years.

My point it that we may have an average or below average year this season depending on how Enso/Shear plays out during the peak, but "majors" will need more support from a robust ITCZ to get there. We will need to keep a close eye on the dry-stable air issue, and rainfall in the Sahel region, come August; if the ITCZ is another weak one, we may end up with a bunch of tropical storms again. Just my personal opinion; I have no clue what the actual numbers will look like.


Add: Greg Carbin is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at SPC
Here is the short-term WPC forecast for Conus today:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Thu Apr 09 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2015 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2015

...Chance for severe thunderstorms in the southern Plains and middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday...

...Flash flooding a concern on Thursday for portions of the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley...

...Severe thunderstorms shift to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by
Friday...


A strong front with the surface low in the Mississippi Valley will
continue to progress south and eastward over the next few days. This
front will help be the driving force for the very active weather pattern
through the end of the work week. On Thursday, the cold front will push
through from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains. Ahead of this front,
warm, moist air from the East Pacific will create an unstable environment
for the southern Plains and middle Mississippi Valley. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of this cold front. For specific
information on severe weather, consult the Storm Prediction Center. To
the north, area of moderate rainfall will move ahead of the surface low
through the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Given the recent rainfalls
in this area, flash flooding could be a concern. Precipitation from the
Great Lakes and the Plains will begin to taper off by early hours of
Friday morning.

As the front continues to approach the East Coast and Southeast, showers
and thunderstorms will also shift eastward. By Friday morning, strong to
severe thunderstorms will move into the Deep South and Tennessee Valley.
There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in Texas on Friday
as the front sags southward toward Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will continue to have the chilly, damp pattern
throughout Thursday and Friday. However, once the front pushes through by
Friday evening, conditions will quickly dry out.

By Friday morning, showers will begin to move across the Pacific Northwest
as a front approaches the coastline. Expect the precipitation to increase
in coverage as the day goes on, and by Saturday the front will stretch
across the northern Rockies along with precipitation.


BTW, concerning positive weather news, here is one: splendid spring weather in Germany and adjacent countries thanks to high "Ostra"! Some disturbances in the Eastern Med/Turkey and in Spain. More see Estofex.


And here is the look for Conus and GFS jet stream forecast;

National Weather Outlook

Quoting 238. StormTrackerScott:



California is in for a very and I mean very wet 6 months starting this October. It could see a case where California erases 3 years of drought in 6 months. Just look at what is going on in Chile getting very serious down there as the Death Toll continues to climb from raging floods in areas that just don't get much rain at all.


In the short-term, California will probably turn wet over the next several months, however this may not last long given the underlying multidecadal cold PDO...

Here's an up-to-date plot I made of the Monthly NCDC PDO data (via ERSSTv3) going back to January 1854. This past March's PDO value was quite high, ranking in the 92nd percentile all-time & was the 11th highest value for the month of March, behind 1940, 1905, 1900, 1940, 1983, 1986, 1984, 1885, 1987, & 1926 respectively...


Looking at the NCDC data, the current 12 month precipitation anomaly is a far cry from the drought observed in the mid 1970s near the last multidecadal PDO regime shift... Land use changes, increasing demand from agriculture, and major population centers, among other things, has exacerbated the current drought despite the fact actual precipitation is quite a bit higher this time around, hence the PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) is virtually off the charts negative...
Good look at the front sweeping through Oklahoma. Also some big storms firing in Missouri.
249. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1 minHace 1 minuto
CSU seasonal forecast posted. Below-average season predicted (7 NS, 3 H, 1 MH and ACE of 40):
CO2 for March 2015

401.52 ppm

"Congratulations Earth Dweller's !"

co2now.org
Line of storms firing out a head of the front. Also, pretty interesting spin moving across southern Missouri. Storms are moving so fast today it will make for very difficult chasing.
Everyone is coming in with a low tally for potential majors; that is consistent with recent climatology and the current set-up. Then potentially watch Mother Nature throw a curve ball and pitch 3 majors............................ :)
Preparation is the ONLY hedge bet for those of us who live in Hurricane Landfall regions.

Every year brings the chance for a devastating impact, regardless of "Data".






This is from CSU for Atlantic Hurricane Season as released 10 AM EST:

Median (in parentheses)
Issue Date
9 April 2015
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)
7
Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1)
30
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)
3
Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3)
10
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)
1
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9)
0.5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92)
40
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%)
45
The cherry blossoms have popped out.They'll really enjoy tomorrow when its in the low 80's and sunshine (before the storms roll in) so I expect it to be really crowded tomorrow near the tidal basin.I'll be down on the wharf getting me some fresh seafood for the weekend while taking pictures of the trees.
257. JRRP
Best analog years for 2015




and 2014
Might need to really watch N.E. Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi this afternoon.
Most of the focus (chaser chatter) seems to be on Illinois today, but the southern end of the front might get active.
Quoting 252. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone is coming in with a low tally for potential majors; that is consistent with recent climatology and the current set-up. Then potentially watch Mother Nature throw a curve ball and pitch 3 majors............................ :)

or maybe 4
Hurricane Audrey is in one of the analogs....2015 wouldn't be so much of a forgettable season if one like that were to happen this year.
Quoting JRRP:

It appears quite likely that an El Nio of at
least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall


And for the lazy people

Summary
An analysis of a variety of different atmosphere and ocean measurements
(through March) which are known to have long-period statistical relationships with the
upcoming season's Atlantic tropical cyclone activity indicate that 2015 should be a very
quiet hurricane season. The big question marks with this season's predictions are how
strong El Nio is going to be, as well as if tropical and North Atlantic Ocean SSTAs
remain as cool as they are now.
Quoting 251. Sfloridacat5:

Line of storms firing out a head of the front. Also, pretty interesting spin moving across southern Missouri. Storms are moving so fast today it will make for very difficult chasing.



That spin is a residual Mesoscale-Convective-Vortex (MCV) left over from the convection in northern texas, SW Oklahoma yesterday evening.
263. jpsb
Quoting 239. Naga5000:



Looks like just another cycle to me...wait, no, things are exacerbated by a warming world. If you can't understand that simple concept, then there is really no hope, Yoboi. Just keep telling yourself, everything is completely normal.






Warming World?



Ice conditions tie up shipping traffic on eastern Lake Superior



firing fast today not long to wait
Quoting 236. Sfloridacat5:



A lot of dry air also got into the mix yesterday. It helped increase the shear, but it also dried out the atmosphere in the area where the tornadoes were forming.
Dr. Forbes was talking about it last night. If the dry line had punched further east into higher dewpoints (central or eastern Oklahoma), we would have seen a lot more development.

Here's a nice video of the tornado near Medicine Lodge. Quite impressive tornado at about the 2 minute mark.
That could have been a disaster had it hit a large city.

Video of one of yesterday's tornadoes.
Link



That increased dry air was why the storms fizzled out so quickly north of Wichita.
Quoting 251. Sfloridacat5:

Line of storms firing out a head of the front. Also, pretty interesting spin moving across southern Missouri. Storms are moving so fast today it will make for very difficult chasing.



That figures. :/
NWSVerified account
‏@NWS
Weak #ElNino continues. @NWSCPC forecasters favor El Niño through autumn http://1.usa.gov/1ggMcrL

Quoting 263. jpsb:



Warming World?



Ice conditions tie up shipping traffic on eastern Lake Superior


Even you can do better than this.
Here it folks. As i said earlier don't expect much this Hurricane Season. This is about as worse as it gets for this years season.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
CSU seasonal forecast posted. Below-average season predicted (7 NS, 3 H, 1 MH and ACE of 40):
Quoting 228. StormTrackerScott:



Yesterdays event was a major BUST. All the hype and not much was delivered. I was shocked at how so many chasers were chasing just average thunderstorms especially TWC. I was very annoyed watching TWC last night. Its like the severe weather season has been so slow that now we have resulted to chasing average storms. Even a reported from OKC said it has been very unusual this year as most of the storms have missed the city either NW or SE.





Yes! I knew i wasn't the only thinking this. TWC sends reporters out to every little storm now when before it was only for actual severe weather outbreaks. This year's severe weather season is even more pathetic than last year!
IRI ENSO Forecast

2015 April Quick Look
Published: April 9, 2015

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections

During March through early-April 2015 the SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions. Some of the atmospheric variables began indicating an El Niño pattern more than they had been earlier, including trade wind weakening and excess rainfall migrating farther to the east. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the March-May 2015 season in progress, continuing and strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.

IRI ENSO Forecast

CPC/IRI ENSO Update
Published: April 9, 2015

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Special Notice: Starting in May 2015, the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion will be released on the second Thursday of each month.

Synopsis: There is an approximately 70% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 and a greater than 60% chance it will last through autumn.

By the end of March 2015, weak El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1) and by the expected tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.1°C in the Niño-4 region, +0.7°C in the Niño-3.4 region, and +0.6°C and +1.4°C in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies increased substantially during the month (Fig. 3) in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across most of the Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with ocean-atmosphere coupling, enhanced convection shifted eastward to the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), while low-level westerly wind anomalies continued over the western equatorial Pacific and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued in the central Pacific. Also, both the traditional and the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to last month, more models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5°C) to continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 6).These forecasts are supported by the increase in subsurface temperatures, enhanced convection over the Date Line, and the increased persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which limits the forecast probabilities of El Niño through the year. At this time, there is also considerable uncertainty as to how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 70% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 60% chance that it will last through autumn (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 May 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
coverage



depth

274. jpsb
Quoting 268. KoritheMan:


Even you can do better than this.



National Geographic Dec 2007

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

Quoting 270. TimTheWxMan:




Yes! I knew i wasn't the only thinking this. TWC sends reporters out to every little storm now when before it was only for actual severe weather outbreaks. This year's severe weather season is even more pathetic than last year!


TWC looked like fools yesterday chasing showers. I mean it was really ridiculous. Wall to wall coverage of people chasing showers. I think this season being record slow is causing some to hype every severe weather potential now if I did that then I would be whisped off the blog. It was really TWC that did all the hyping yesterday.
Quoting 258. Sfloridacat5:

Might need to really watch N.E. Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi this afternoon.
Most of the focus (chaser chatter) seems to be on Illinois today, but the southern end of the front might get active.



Question again becomes will all this surface instability break the existing Cap
278. jpsb
Your might find this of interest KEEP



Wingham And Lion’s Head Men Walk Across Georgian Bay
Calif. Continues to Shatter Temperature Records
Climate Central, Published: April 8th, 2015
The dubious records keep piling up for California, a state wracked by four years of drought brought on by a pernicious weather pattern that has kept rains at bay and exacerbated by human-induced warming. Just one week after the state measured its lowest-ever snowpack, U.S. scientists have announced that the year so far has been the warmest on record, setting expectations for a long, hot, dry year ahead.
"2015 to date has been truly astonishingly warm in California, and we're breaking almost all the temperature records there are to break," Daniel Swain, an atmospheric science PhD student at Stanford University, said in an email. ...

More see link above.



-----------------------------------





Source.
Quoting 278. jpsb:

Your might find this of interest KEEP



Wingham And Lion’s Head Men Walk Across Georgian Bay
and by the end of april it will all be gone
Quoting 253. JRRP:


It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at
least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall



The guys at Colorado State as I have been saying are really gun hoe on a moderate to strong El-Nino by August or September with likely chances of a strong El-Nino by early Fall. You know its bad if even JB is onboard.
This year's severe weather season is even more pathetic than last year!



U sound disappointed a tad, bro.

LOL
JB is on board?

Who'd a thunk Jim Beam did weather also?
Quoting 199. sar2401:

It's been warmer than normal since our last cold snap but it's been really hot for a week. Not the usual hot either, but with high humidity instead of of the usual dry air. Even with the humidity I'm still not getting hardly any clouds and nothing that turns into a thunderstorm. This will now be the second episode of severe weather that will not affect us in south Alabama. I don't expect that luck to last forever but it has been one of the quietest springs I remember.


42 under a wedge this morning. Very warm above 900mb but I don't live there. If the wedge breaks tomorrow
as forecast we'll go from cold to warm and humid with thunderstorms. No one's mentioning it but if the wedge
breaks during the day there may be a lot of helicity from directional shear in the 900mb layer and convection
could tap it.
nice image shows system well

Quoting 263. jpsb:



Warming World?



Ice conditions tie up shipping traffic on eastern Lake Superior




Colder locally in Eastern North America, warmer globally. The snow chart from 2012 is a cherrypick. Early Spring 2012 utterly and dramatically smashed warmth records over the Northern U.S. and southern third of Canada melting the snow there several to many weeks early. This 2012 phenomenon was confined to North America.
2 things ongoing across the Midwest which is limiting severe weather prospects and that is lack of high PWAT air as PWAT's are struggling to even get to 1.2 to 1.4" and a mid level cap due to lots of heat being thrust northwards from the surface up to 5,000 feet which limiting the growth of updrafts needed for large tornadoes.
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:

Here it folks. As i said earlier don't expect much this Hurricane Season. This is about as worse as it gets for this years season.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
CSU seasonal forecast posted. Below-average season predicted (7 NS, 3 H, 1 MH and ACE of 40):



Wow, only 7 named storms? That might be the lowest projection I have seen from CSU.
Quoting 283. Patrap:

JB is on board?

Who'd a thunk Jim Beam did weather also?
If he can forecast as well as he distills he is an asset...:)
Wheres a Skew T chart when ya need one?
It seems to me that El-Nino is having a upper hand here with keeping the deepest moisture south near the Gulf Coast. After today the Midwest will turn quite for awhile.

Prime example below. Deepest moisture is in East Texas while the best dynamics are further north meaning we are not seeing these 2 factors come together. I saw this over the weekend and really toned down my severe weather prospects for this week.

Quoting 189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


got a mess too clean up here
rough winter to cold too pick frozen garage
so it has sat till now
that's first
then blow the property with the blowers
replace plants in planters
air raid the lawn fertilize
for re-grow place dirt along the walks and curbs with grass seed from salt burn
redo round about evergreens
which have all turned orange from frostburn and saltburn
then do the first lawn cut first week of may
flowers planted affer may 6 last on the list



First grass cut in DC metro is traditionally about April 1. Late this year but this weekend 4/11-4/12 my son will
start to get calls to cut people's grass.
Quoting 288. georgevandenberghe:



Colder locally in Eastern North America, warmer globally. The snow chart from 2012 is a cherrypick. Early Spring 2012 utterly and dramatically smashed warmth records over the Northern U.S. and southern third of Canada melting the snow there several to many weeks early. This 2012 phenomenon was confined to North America.


Thanks for the rebuttal, I've moved on to threats with cardboard tubes for the most egregious of offenders. :)
Quoting 291. hydrus:

If he can forecast as well as he distills he is an asset...:)


At PSU he was one of the best forecasters. Three classes before mine so I didn't know him well.
Quoting 290. tampabaymatt:



Wow, only 7 named storms? That might be the lowest projection I have seen from CSU.


Well what do you expect when you have this type of consensus. I keep pointing this out and people that want a active hurricane season are going crazy as there is no hope for even a average season. Could we still see a major hit the US most certainly so one should never let their guard down.

You don't see this type of consensus with these models. Very very rare to see models grouped that tightly together.



Like I mentioned on Monday East Texas may have on heck of a severe weather outbreak early next week as finally both dynamics and sufficient deep moisture will be available for conditions needed for many tornadoes. We really need to watch Texas next week. #El-Nino# Southern Branch.





We?

LOL
Quoting 257. JRRP:

Best analog years for 2015




and 2014
Almost zero MDR storms, most develop north in the subtropics.
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



Well what do you expect when you have this type of consensus. I keep pointing this out and people that want a active hurricane season are going crazy as there is no hope for even a average season. Could we still see a major hit the US most certainly so one should never let their guard down.

You don't see this type of consensus with these models. Very very rare to see models grouped that tightly together.







any news for the E PAC hurricane for cast?
Michael Ventrice retweeted
Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather · 5m 5 minutes ago
Klotzbach: 40% fewer major hurricane landfalls in the last 50 years in US compared to the previous 50 years: http://wapo.st/1HVePZ7
The ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 has shown skill at being able to predict SST
anomalies associated with ENSO several months into the future (Stockdale et al. 2011).
ECMWF has recently upgraded their seasonal forecast system to system 4. ENSO has
been documented in many studies to be one of the primary factors associated with
interannual fluctuations in Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity (Gray
1984, Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996, Bove et al. 1998, Klotzbach 2011), primarily
through alterations in vertical wind shear patterns. The ensemble-averaged ENSO
forecast for September values of the Nino 3 region from a 1 March forecast date
correlates with observations at 0.63, which is impressive considering that this forecast
goes through the springtime predictability barrier, where fluctuations in ENSO lead to
greatly reduced forecast skill. When the ECMWF model predicts cool SST anomalies for
September, it strongly correlates with observed cool anomalies throughout the tropical
Pacific associated with La Niña conditions, as well as reduced vertical wind shear,
especially across the Caribbean
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



Well what do you expect when you have this type of consensus. I keep pointing this out and people that want a active hurricane season are going crazy as there is no hope for even a average season. Could we still see a major hit the US most certainly so one should never let their guard down.

You don't see this type of consensus with these models. Very very rare to see models grouped that tightly together.




maybe we get only 4 or 5 named storms all land falling majors 4 or 5 would be enough to do it in would not need any more

NOAA Climate.govVerified account
@NOAAClimate
#El-Nino conditions strengthened in March. Where do forecasters think we're going from here?


From the CPC folks.


** Based on analysis done by Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, focused on the region 5S-5N, 155E-180. The westerly wind burst exceeded 5 m/s from the daily average from March 4-12 (nine days), peaking at 7.4 m/s on March 8 in this region. This is the longest period that a westerly wind burst has existed since 1997 in that region, as well as the strongest magnitude for any given day since 1997.
Quoting Patrap:
JB is on board?

Who'd a thunk Jim Beam did weather also?


LOL
Quoting 301. Tazmanian:




any news for the E PAC hurricane for cast?


Yeah buckle up for a long ride and that ride maybe starting in a few weeks. What we've been seeing in the W-Pac with all these cat 5's expect that in the E-Pac maybe starting next month.
It's snowing as I type this here along the coast of Maine. (No, really, it is, for crying out loud.) It therefore logically follows that global warming is a myth. Does anyone have any other major problems they need me to solve?
Quoting 274. jpsb:



National Geographic Dec 2007

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?



From your article: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions." -bold added because that's the important bit.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah buckle up for a long ride and that ride maybe starting in a few weeks. What we've been seeing in the W-Pac with all these cat 5's expect that in the E-Pac maybe starting next month.


You sure have a nice collection of idioms.
Quoting 308. MaineGuy:

It's snowing as I type this here along the coast of Maine. (No, really, it is, for crying out loud.) It therefore logically follows that global warming is a myth. Does anyone have any other major problems they need me to solve?
It will be nice by may for u guys
The SPC outlook for yesterday verified pretty poorly. Several tornadoes touched down in the Slight risk area, only a few touched down in the Enhanced risk area, and none touched down in the Moderate risk area. 'Twas a tough forecast.

Quoting 311. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

It will be nice by may for u guys

expect a cooler than normal summer as well
and likely wet to go along with it
thinking from grt lakes eastward will be the case for summer
I don't mind
global warming can cook and dry out someone else
Quoting 309. Misanthroptimist:


From your article: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions." -bold added because that's the important bit.




Oh man, qualifying statements that clarify the language used? You're skating on thin ice, buddy, that doesn't jive with the narrative. :)
Quoting 309. Misanthroptimist:


From your article: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions." -bold added because that's the important bit.




Hence the need to take "rate" with a grain of salt. If I go for a ten mile run and sweat off five pounds in one day "At that rate" I'll lose those 25 other pounds I'm trying to lose in less than a week (or not). Sounds like the author of the National Geographic article was going for a little misinterpretation of reality in order to get people to read the article.
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:

Here it folks. As i said earlier don't expect much this Hurricane Season. This is about as worse as it gets for this years season.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
CSU seasonal forecast posted. Below-average season predicted (7 NS, 3 H, 1 MH and ACE of 40):



Worse than what? A lower than typical probability for financial and physical devastation is worse than widespread death and destruction?
Quoting 312. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The SPC outlook for yesterday verified pretty poorly. Several tornadoes touched down in the Slight risk area, only a few touched down in the Enhanced risk area, and none touched down in the Moderate risk area. 'Twas a tough forecast.


it was there just failed to pop as expected
Study Finds Link Between Tornado Frequency in US and El Nino

Link
...keep, take a few days off, yer quoting yerself and acting like a weather expert too.

: )
Quoting 312. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The SPC outlook for yesterday verified pretty poorly. Several tornadoes touched down in the Slight risk area, only a few touched down in the Enhanced risk area, and none touched down in the Moderate risk area. 'Twas a tough forecast.




Poor moisture levels & Cap. Models did show this well in advance and why a moderate risk was issued is besides me. I was going to mention that on here yesterday but was afraid of the backlash so I figured I would let it ride and see how it pans out. PWAT's where likely the lowest I've seen during a moderate risked event. Some cases they didn't even reach an 1". However surface instability was about as intense as it gets but the Cap was just that much stronger. Higher PWAT would have definitely helped yesterday if it was available.
Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN · 2h 2 hours ago
Initial target area this afternoon Springfield to Peoria, IL.. Also will be arc of supercells rolling out of eastern IA mid afternoon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
410 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NO END IN SIGHT TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WARM/DRY TODAY AS FURTHER MID LEVEL/MEAN DRYING IS
PROGGED OVER THE NEXT H24. E-SE WINDS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 10KFT...
COUPLED WITH E-NE/INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW IN LOWER PWAT AIR...AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE CIRA
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT (PROVIDED BY SPORT/UAH). VALUES DROP TO AROUND
26MM/1.0" BY THIS AFTERNOON....WHICH WILL LIMIT BOTH VERTICAL AND
AREAL EXTENT OF DIURNAL CU FIELD...THEREBY REDUCING PRECIP CHCS TO
VIRTUALLY NIL. E-SE BREEZES WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE L-M80S
WITH U80S OVER THE INTERIOR. MINS ONCE AGAIN IN THE M-U60S.

FRI-SUN...RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS INTO LATE WEEK AS WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF CENTRAL FL INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN LOW
LEVEL S/SE FLOW MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR TOWARD SUNSET FRI. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. BETTER RAIN CHANCES STILL INDICATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. PW VALUES
BTW 1.5-1.7" WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFT. A WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW STORMS THAT FORM INLAND TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE
EACH DAY INTO EARLY EVE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIMITED CONVECTION FRI WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
WEEKEND MAY KEEP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER...BUT WILL STILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

MON-WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY FADES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. 00Z GFS HAS ELIMINATED ANY DRYING ACROSS
THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK AS WAS INDICATED IN ITS RUN 24 HRS PRIOR.
THIS PUTS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING LINGERING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 30-40%) LOOK TO PERSIST OVER INLAND AREAS
AS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL FAVOR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
Quoting 274. jpsb:



National Geographic Dec 2007

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?



I'm interested in knowing how exactly it is that the article, from a reputable source, which treats AGW as a fact and a foregone conclusion, supports anything you have to say. ONE scientist is quoted as speculating that we might see an ice free Arctic by 2012. This speculation was fueled by the surprising degree of melt that year. I personally find it impressive that 2012 did in fact turn out to be another record low year, by a wide margin.
However, the article presents what is essentially a range of views among scientists as it pertains to the timeline of an ice free arctic. There's no scientific consensus on a particular year, but most put it within a few decades.
That's what I learned by reading the entire article. What did you glean from it that I did not? What made you think that citing that article would prove any point you might be trying to make?

Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:



TWC looked like fools yesterday chasing showers. I mean it was really ridiculous. Wall to wall coverage of people chasing showers. I think this season being record slow is causing some to hype every severe weather potential now if I did that then I would be whisped off the blog. It was really TWC that did all the hyping yesterday.



Where do i sign up for the Great Rainshaft Hunt? Seriously though, there were torcons at high as 6.
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:



Poor moisture levels & Cap. Models did show this well in advance and why a moderate risk was issued is besides me. I was going to mention that on here yesterday but was afraid of the backlash so I figured I would let it ride and see how it pans out. PWAT's where likely the lowest I've seen during a moderate risked event. Some cases they didn't even reach an 1".
Could you please explain what makes PWAT such a significant parameter for severe risk?
Quoting 324. TimTheWxMan:




Where do i sign up for the Great Rainshaft Hunt? Seriously though, there were torcons at high as 6.


Really I don't get where they were seeing this? last week at this time the models showed 1.7" to 2" PWATS streaming well north but then backed off to 1.2" to 1.4" over the weekend so that should have been a red flag.
Quoting 325. Barefootontherocks:

Could you please explain what makes PWAT such a significant parameter for severe risk?


Helps with creating a very buoyant atmosphere and one that would have been able to sufficiently bust the Cap that was in place. Same here in FL if we don't get high PWAT's in place then well it just doesn't rain or if it does its on the light side. Cape was off the charts but moisture profiles likely helped keep the Cap in place.
Quoting 274. jpsb:



National Geographic Dec 2007

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?




Now, I do not want to get involved in another argument in which you accuse me of name-calling, however, when you present yourself as an expert (and you have indeed done so, as you yourself claim that you have proven climate change is false) then you must be prepared for those who question those claims and request evidence, or for those who believe that your evidence is misapplied or even false. So...

First of all, please note that the article that you posted ends in a question mark. Therefore, the publication is not making a statement of fact, but rather posing a scientific query. In attempting to present it as a factual article, rather than a summary of on-going studies. you undermine the point you are attempting to make.

Secondly, using the ice cover from the Great Lakes as evidence that global warming is a fallacious theory demonstrates a lack of understanding of the word global. Yes, the Midwest and Northeast United States had cold winters. However, those areas represent a very, very small percentage of the globe. In discounting the record heat that has occurred in other areas, say Asia, you once again undermine the very point you are trying to prove.

Again, not trying to resort to name-calling; rather, I am trying to see if you can ever provide logical, supported evidence from individuals or organizations that engage in neutral scientific research rather than politically-motivated think tanks, whether liberal or conservative, that could actually sway my opinion.
Quoting 319. Patrap:

...keep, take a few days off, yer quoting yerself and acting like a weather expert too.

: )
not a expert just a guesser like everyone else :)
so that is an increase of how many parts of a million co2 since 2000?
For those who are interested, Yale U just released a study on climate change/GW. Not on the actual stats but on many people in the US are concerned or not concerned. A great read; a few highlights and the link below:

Map

A team of Yale researchers has developed a new statistical model that accurately estimates public climate change opinion and public policy support in all 50 states, 435 United State Congressional districts, more than 3,000 counties, and cities across the nation. The model allows users to explore public opinion in unprecedented geographic detail.

The model, which is described in the journal Nature Climate Change, was developed in partnership with Utah State University.

http://news.yale.edu/2015/04/06/yale-study-maps-u s-climate-opinion-unprecedented-geographic-detail? utm_source=YNemail&utm_medium=email&utm_ca mpaign=ynalumni-04-07-15

332. jpsb
Quoting 288. georgevandenberghe:



Colder locally in Eastern North America, warmer globally. The snow chart from 2012 is a cherrypick. Early Spring 2012 utterly and dramatically smashed warmth records over the Northern U.S. and southern third of Canada melting the snow there several to many weeks early. This 2012 phenomenon was confined to North America.


But I read all the time that this year/last year was the warmest year ever. Thus all years since 2012 should be warmer then 2012 and since the arctic is warming faster then any other place on Earth there should be less ice and snow there then in 2012. 2013 should be less (ice/snow) then 2012, 2014 should be less then 2013 and 2015 should be less then 2014.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Where do i sign up for the Great Rainshaft Hunt? Seriously though, there were torcons at high as 6.


Remember Vortex2 project where there was a convoy (50 vehicles) of storm chasers running all over the Plains for a month without seeing one tornado. That was like a dog chasing his tail.

Finally they caught a tornado on the last day.

But it shows that sometimes the environment just doesn't want to produce tornadoes.


Had a little over over 1.3" in gauge this morning in S C IL and was still raining when left for work, ditches pretty full, another pretty heavy round a little after 10, then lightened up and temps started coming up. 69 to my SW w/ 29.73", 65 to my N w/ 29.75", both have S-SSW light winds, but gusts near 20.

Sat-radar showing snow in central NE, must be why they lowered Sat mornings forecast lows to upper 30s after being 40-42 all week. See clouds missing S of StL, may make things interesting this afternoon. If Reed is right, wabit may have to head down his hole! Did you get any wet stuff ILwthr?
Quoting 323. SeriouslySushi:


I'm interested in knowing how exactly it is that the article, from a reputable source, which treats AGW as a fact and a foregone conclusion, supports anything you have to say. ONE scientist is quoted as speculating that we might see an ice free Arctic by 2012. This speculation was fueled by the surprising degree of melt that year. I personally find it impressive that 2012 did in fact turn out to be another record low year, by a wide margin.
However, the article presents what is essentially a range of views among scientists as it pertains to the timeline of an ice free arctic. There's no scientific consensus on a particular year, but most put it within a few decades.
That's what I learned by reading the entire article. What did you glean from it that I did not? What made you think that citing that article would prove any point you might be trying to make?



2007 was a phenomenal year for Arctic sea ice melt. It can be seen why there was alarm when compared to 2006.

September 2006 top image - September 2007 bottom image


It's little wonder that the media were interested in Arctic sea ice and what the big melt of 2007 might mean.
Quoting 301. Tazmanian:




any news for the E PAC hurricane for cast?
It's not only the El Nina that is causing the slow season, it's a combination of may different factors. In fact the Nino may play a very minor role this year.
338. jpsb
Oh, I get it the heat is in Asia. OK, let have a look at Asia


Ooops
Quoting 333. Sfloridacat5:



Remember Vortex2 project where there was a convoy (50 vehicles) of storm chasers running all over the Plains for a month without seeing one tornado. That was like a dog chasing his tail.

Finally they caught a tornado on the last day.

But it shows that sometimes the environment just doesn't want to produce tornadoes.





Oh yeah. They only saw one tornado in Goshen County Wyoming. They would've had way better luck had they chased the year before or after.
Quoting 332. jpsb:



But I read all the time that this year/last year was the warmest year ever. Thus all years since 2012 should be warmer then 2012 and since the arctic is warming faster then any other place on Earth there should be less ice and snow there then in 2012. 2013 should be less (ice/snow) then 2012, 2014 should be less then 2013 and 2015 should be less then 2014.

1. A record warm year in 2014 says nothing about 2013.
2. Air temperature is only one player in how much sea ice gets melted -wind, ocean currents, and especially clouds all play important roles in the yearly melt of Arctic ice.

Your logic and your assumptions are faulty concerning Arctic sea ice. This might be a good place to get yourself up to speed.
Quoting 326. StormTrackerScott:



Really I don't get where they were seeing this? last week at this time the models showed 1.7" to 2" PWATS streaming well north but then backed off to 1.2" to 1.4" over the weekend so that should have been a red flag.



I think it was because of the amount of instability and that the dryline was originally supposed to set up along I-35 from north of okc to newton.
Quoting 336. nrtiwlnvragn:

From Monthly Ocean Briefing



How can this be true, all I read on here is just the opposite.
Quoting 338. jpsb:


Why, yes. Yes it was warm in Asia.

Well, on the side that was warm this winter, the Pacific, there is less ice, hmm?

Heading up quick as cloud cover lessens and S winds pick up. 71 to my SW, now 68 to N, press down a little more.
What I find most interesting about the Yale study and map, is the poll results showing that a lot of Latin Americans are concerned about GW and the map shows that much of Southern Bible belt has a lower percentage. Seems to me it is the two sides of the same coin. Many Latin Americans are Catholic, and feel that GW is a sign of "times changing" on Earth related to Bible prophesy and many Conservative Christians in the South believe that GW is a liberal/government hoax. Interesting paradox...................................
Quoting 332. jpsb:



But I read all the time that this year/last year was the warmest year ever. Thus all years since 2012 should be warmer then 2012 and since the arctic is warming faster then any other place on Earth there should be less ice and snow there then in 2012. 2013 should be less (ice/snow) then 2012, 2014 should be less then 2013 and 2015 should be less then 2014.


Oh boy.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Yes! I knew i wasn't the only thinking this. TWC sends reporters out to every little storm now when before it was only for actual severe weather outbreaks. This year's severe weather season is even more pathetic than last year!
I think part of the problem is this enormous increase in storm chasers/spotters. It really doesn't take much to join the crowd. Buy or borrow some equipment, rent a car, and you're good to go. After watching a repeat of some of these spotter's feeds yesterday, it was apparent that a lot of them really didn't have any experience or much knowledge. They were calling shelf clouds wall clouds and dense rain and hail shafts funnel clouds. If one of the well known spotters thought he saw a funnel cloud, ten people in the area also thought they saw a funnel cloud. They all monitor each other's Twitter feeds so we get this incestous repeating of what one other person might have seen. TWC also monitors all these Twitter feeds and repeats some of this misinformation, which makes it seem like things are worse than they are. It's bad enough that they are are risking their lives without this poor reporting. At this point, unless a report comes from a known entity, I don't believe any of it without a picture.
2013 according to all the forecasting agencies was to be an explosive season, yet turned out to be a bust season.
CSU is now predicting a low season, guess I have to wait around the 15th may to ascertain what may or may not prevail this season. a lot can change between now and the end of may.
Quoting stoormfury:
2013 according to all the forecasting agencies was to be an explosive season, yet turned out to be a bust season.
CSU is now predicting a low season, guess I have to wait around the 15th may to ascertain what may or may not prevail this season. a lot can change between now and the end of may.


2014 was predicted to be inactive by all forecasting agencies, too.
Quoting Naga5000:


Oh boy.
I did really well in the stock market in 2012. It only stands to reason I should have done even better in 2013, and topped 2013 in 2014, and 2015 has to be a bang-up year...what?...hey, whatcha you mean, I don't sound like an idiot...
Quoting 332. jpsb:



But I read all the time that this year/last year was the warmest year ever. Thus all years since 2012 should be warmer then 2012 and since the arctic is warming faster then any other place on Earth there should be less ice and snow there then in 2012. 2013 should be less (ice/snow) then 2012, 2014 should be less then 2013 and 2015 should be less then 2014.

Quoting 332. jpsb:



But I read all the time that this year/last year was the warmest year ever. Thus all years since 2012 should be warmer then 2012 and since the arctic is warming faster then any other place on Earth there should be less ice and snow there then in 2012. 2013 should be less (ice/snow) then 2012, 2014 should be less then 2013 and 2015 should be less then 2014.

Except that A) No, you actually don't hear that every year is the warmest year ever, and B) your layperson's understanding of how Arctic melt "should" proceed, even if that were the case, is not credible, and not valid.
Virtually all scientists who speak to Arctic melt say the expect it to be up and down from year to year, all the while on a steady downward trajectory long term. Just like we're seeing.
Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:



Helps with creating a very buoyant atmosphere and one that would have been able to sufficiently bust the Cap that was in place. Same here in FL if we don't get high PWAT's in place then well it just doesn't rain or if it does its on the light side. Cape was off the charts but moisture profiles likely helped keep the Cap in place.
Oh. I meant severe weather, not rain. I guess I've never associated PWAT with convective inhibition (Cap). I guess I always thought capping was related to warm air above a rising parcel - a temperature inversion of sorts - that inhibits parcel bouyancy and keeps clouds from forming an effective storm.

Convective inhibition was recognized and mentioned in the SPC outlooks days ahead of time, and the Plains pretty much stayed capped where they said it would. Surface level dewpoint temps did not fail to reach expected levels.

Wondering if you, and others calling "bust" are aware yesterday was the most active severe day so far in 2015 and it brought some 300 severe reports yesterday from across the risk areas - for (many of them huge) hail and severe level winds? There was no great destruction of life and property reported last night. Is that what makes this yesterday a "bust"?

Yes, the tornado (by and large small and ropey) reports were sparse and most occurred in a slight risk area, not the moderate. I'll give you that. But who predicted a "tornado outbreak"? Not SPC. On the tornado watches, they mentioned high chance of EF 0 and EF 1 tornadoes. A moderate chance of EF2 and above. That is not a tornado guarantee; however, it did bear out just alongside the moderate risk area. You'll notice on yesterday's 1130 cdt convective outlook tornado prob graphic (below) a 15% chance of tornadoes below EF2 and a 10% chance of EF@ 2 and above within the "moderate" risk area. This graphic is a link to the full 1130 a.m. outlook.


I wonder how many who comment on a "bust" have read and understood all SPC's outlooks and MCDs and watches, and how many who have read them also understand what these SPC products represent.
Quoting dabirds:
Had a little over over 1.3" in gauge this morning in S C IL and was still raining when left for work, ditches pretty full, another pretty heavy round a little after 10, then lightened up and temps started coming up. 69 to my SW w/ 29.73", 65 to my N w/ 29.75", both have S-SSW light winds, but gusts near 20.

Sat-radar showing snow in central NE, must be why they lowered Sat mornings forecast lows to upper 30s after being 40-42 all week. See clouds missing S of StL, may make things interesting this afternoon. If Reed is right, wabit may have to head down his hole! Did you get any wet stuff ILwthr?
There is very little lightning in any part of the enhanced risk area right now. The most lightning is over Lake Erie, west of Cleveland, where temperatures have warmed from the mid-30's last night to 68 now. Cincinnati is only one degree warmer. The surge of warmer air is much further north and east than what was predicted. I'm starting to wonder just how strong and persistent this cap is going to be.
Quoting 341. TimTheWxMan:




I think it was because of the amount of instability and that the dryline was originally supposed to set up along I-35 from north of okc to newton.
Who progged that?
Quoting 344. dabirds:

Well, on the side that was warm this winter, the Pacific, there is less ice, hmm?

Heading up quick as cloud cover lessens and S winds pick up. 71 to my SW, now 68 to N, press down a little more.



I'm getting some SW gusts as well and skies are beginning to get clear here.
Quoting 332. jpsb:



But I read all the time that this year/last year was the warmest year ever. Thus all years since 2012 should be warmer then 2012 and since the arctic is warming faster then any other place on Earth there should be less ice and snow there then in 2012. 2013 should be less (ice/snow) then 2012, 2014 should be less then 2013 and 2015 should be less then 2014.


If the temp is the warmest ever, yet still below freezing, there can still be lots and lots and lots of snow. Some places will see none, but some places that were really cold and dry, will see much more snow as the warming temps play havoc with the local climate.

Stuck in the mid to high 70's, works for me. No Rain in Forecast.....
Quoting 354. Barefootontherocks:

Who progged that?



Oh, that was a few days back.
Quoting 354. Barefootontherocks:

Who progged that?








Quoting 332. jpsb:



But I read all the time that this year/last year was the warmest year ever. Thus all years since 2012 should be warmer then 2012 and since the arctic is warming faster then any other place on Earth there should be less ice and snow there then in 2012. 2013 should be less (ice/snow) then 2012, 2014 should be less then 2013 and 2015 should be less then 2014.


There is indeed less NH ice in early spring 2015 than there was in early spring 2012. Areal extent is down about 5% from this time in 2012.

There is not a 1:1 correlation between ice cover and temperature though. Other factors weigh in. 2012 turned out to be a record low summer ice year after starting out higher than some other years in early Spring

The dark side of our current calm and sunny weather in Central/Western Europe:

Paris issues air pollution warning - again
Euronews, 09/04 03:51 CET
Paris is fast becoming a pollution capital after the air quality watchdog 'Airparif' once again registered high risk levels for residents.
So far this years there have been 12 days where the pollution index has hit above 75 out of a possible 100 for the city and its environs...


Warning of high air pollution levels in UK
BBC, 5 hours ago

Quoting 338. jpsb:

Oh, I get it the heat is in Asia. OK, let have a look at Asia


Ooops


Umm...that's what you call scientific evidence? Why are you using a picture of ice when we are talking about average temps? Worse, it's a picture with no identifying heading or a source. Also, you do realize that if an area, say Siberia, has had an average temperature of, let's say, 20 degrees F and that in a warming world, if the avergae temperature raises, say, 3 degrees, that your average is now 23 degrees. Last time I checked, that was still cold enough for ice to form in the WINTER! The presence of ice or a snow pack in Siberia at the beginning of April is not exactly scientific evidence. Again, you need to critically analyze information, not just say, "Oh, I like this so I'll use it!"

Finally, please refer to comment
Quoting 346. Naga5000:



Oh boy.

Right?
Quoting 343. Misanthroptimist:


Why, yes. Yes it was warm in Asia.



Russia had it's warmest winter on record.


Calif. Continues to Shatter Temperature Records


The dubious records keep piling up for California, a state wracked by four years of drought brought on by a pernicious weather pattern that has kept rains at bay and exacerbated by human-induced warming. Just one week after the state measured its lowest-ever snowpack, U.S. scientists have announced that the year so far has been the warmest on record, setting expectations for a long, hot, dry year ahead.

“2015 to date has been truly astonishingly warm in California, and we're breaking almost all the temperature records there are to break,” Daniel Swain, an atmospheric science PhD student at Stanford University, said in an email.


Link
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



I think it was because of the amount of instability and that the dryline was originally supposed to set up along I-35 from north of okc to newton.


Yeah, most the seasoned storm chasers and mets thought the storms would get going around Enid, Oklahoma and then move N.E. into S.E. Kansas.
That would have provided the storms a lot more moisture to work with.

But instead the dry line pretty much sat out in far western Oklahoma and didn't move much. The storm that did fire along the dry line didn't have a lot of moisture to work with.
Giant blob of methane over the SW US reinvestigated.



Link
test
Quoting 358. TimTheWxMan:




Oh, that was a few days back.








That's a model run 4 days out. (Add: In other words, a guess by the model.) I meant who progged the dryline would set up along I35 north of OKC yesterday - as in...a person, NWS, TWC? I know SPC did not.
ok...much better....i couldn't post for some reason...how to refresh my broswer clear the history cookies and such........
Quoting 359. georgevandenberghe:



There is indeed less NH ice in early spring 2015 than there was in early spring 2012. Areal extent is down about 5% from this time in 2012.

There is not a 1:1 correlation between ice cover and temperature though. Other factors weigh in. 2012 turned out to be a record low summer ice year after starting out higher than some other years in early Spring



what needs to be watch for in the ice
is max and min of the total volume of ice
cover means nothing
and in fact may extend in a warming world
as water vapor increases
and that in turn falls
as more snow
during the winter seasons


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
What I find most interesting about the Yale study and map, is the poll results showing that a lot of Latin Americans are concerned about GW and the map shows that much of Southern Bible belt has a lower percentage. Seems to me it is the two sides of the same coin. Many Latin Americans are Catholic, and feel that GW is a sign of "times changing" on Earth related to Bible prophesy and many Conservative Christians in the South believe that GW is a liberal/government hoax. Interesting paradox...................................
Well, no. Ohio and Indiana don't look much different than Alabama. I don't think religion alone is the major factor. I think it's more related to average educational level. If you look at Alabama, the places where concern about global warming is highest are all college towns and major metropolitan areas. The other factor is if people are actually experiencing what appears to be the results of global warming, hence the big numbers on the West Coast and the Southwest. The only area I can see that's likely related to religion are the states of Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, where there are large Mormon populations but, even there, college towns and metropolitan areas stand out with the higher numbers. Of course, I'm only making these guesses looking at a map of a study that claims to be ground breaking, so I'd like to see some confirmation of the results of this study before I got too sure of what it shows.
Quoting Grothar:
Giant blob of methane over the SW US reinvestigated.



Link


I see that the NW New Mexico baked-bean eating contest went well.
“BRASILIA – In another meeting of the government to assess the water crisis affecting parts of the country, the diagnosis is that in the Northeast, there are now 56 cities in state of collapse, that is, without water for more than four days. ”

Link

Sorry, it’s in Portuguese but can be run through google translator.
Quoting 363. ColoradoBob1:


I cringe every time I see that graph. The upcoming summer fills me with dread, as much as I hate hot weather.
374. jpsb
Quoting 350. sar2401:

I did really well in the stock market in 2012. It only stands to reason I should have done even better in 2013, and topped 2013 in 2014, and 2015 has to be a bang-up year...what?...hey, whatcha you mean, I don't sound like an idiot...


Yes if your stocks continue to gain in value then you should do well. This is not a difficult concept.

NOAA: 2012 Hottest & 2nd-Most Extreme Year On Record
The year 2013 ties with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880.
The year 2014 now ranks as the warmest on record since 1880, says NASA scientists.
This Winter (2015) Was Warmest on Record says NOAA

I believe I posted truthfully 2013 was warmer then 2012, dido 2014 and 2015(winter) so there should be less Arctic ice now then in 2012.

When I look at the image below I do not fly into a fit of panic
Gatwick oil find 'could produce 100bn barrels'
UK Oil and Gas Investments locates ‘world-class potential resource’ in Sussex, but experts believe fracking is needed to extract commercial quantities of oil
The Guardian, Thursday 9 April 2015 09.02 BST
An oil company claimed on Thursday that it had found 100bn barrels of oil close to Gatwick airport, sending the firm’s share price racing in the City and prompting immediate controversy with environmentalists.
The find would have “national significance” and be the largest of its kind in 30 years, according to the small independent explorer, UK Oil and Gas Investments (UKOG), which is working alongside a larger US firm on the project.
Shares in UKOG jumped more than 200% in frantic trading although veteran analysts dismissed talk of a Sussex oil boom as excessive hype.
UKOG admitted that while up to 100bn barrels may be in place 3,000ft (900 metres) below the Sussex countryside only 3-15% of the total would be recovered, based on similar finds in the US.
“We think we’ve found a very significant discovery here, probably the largest [onshore in the UK] in the last 30 years, and we think it has national significance,” Stephen Sanderson, UKOG’s chief executive, told the BBC. ...
I hope you all have a wonderful afternoon and eve. Stay safe in the storm risk areas.
And let us always remember, the ORIGINAL VORTEX experiments served as the inspiration for the film, Twister.
Quoting 373. TimSoCal:



I cringe every time I see that graph. The upcoming summer fills me with dread, as much as I hate hot weather.




Tackling Taiwan’s water shortages

About three million people will be without water in Taiwan as the government takes drastic action to ration supplies in response to the country’s lowest rainfall for 67 years, reports the BBC’s Cindy Sui.

Many reservoirs are less than half full, and April’s forecast does not look like changing the situation, weather experts say.

The country’s traditional rainy season in May and June may not deliver enough water to solve Taiwan’s water shortage problem
.

Link
From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for April 7, 2015:

Arctic Moisture on the Move



Today's story is part of our recent series Landsat Goes Over the Top: A Long View of the Arctic.

Arctic sea ice—frozen seawater floating on top of the Arctic Ocean and its neighboring seas—grows in the fall and winter and melts in the spring and summer. Since 1978, satellites monitoring this annual growth and retreat have detected an overall decline in Arctic sea ice.

Scientists such as NASA’s Linette Boisvert want to know how this decline is contributing to a warmer and wetter Arctic. One way to find out is by looking at the energy balance at the surface. Areas of ice-free ocean absorb more heat from the Sun and become warmer, increasing humidity near the surface. When the humidity at the surface is higher than that of the overlying air, the moisture is released into the atmosphere. In its vapor form, this water is a greenhouse gas that can lead to further warming and ice loss.

The map above, produced with data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite, represents the vertical transport of moisture over the Arctic on June 21, 2014. Orange and red areas show where moisture is leaving the surface and entering the atmosphere (evaporation); blue areas are where moisture is moving from the atmosphere to the surface. The rate at which this occurs is called the moisture flux.

Data for this map were acquired on the summer solstice, after the sea ice had started its annual retreat toward its minimum extent (usually reached in September). The transition between sea ice and ocean water is visible where the moisture flux switches from negative (blue) over the solid sea ice pack to positive (red) over ice-free waters.
Read more
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 31m 31 minutes ago

NMME from April 2015 considerably warmer for El Nino than April 2014 (and also a little higher than March 2015 fcst)


370. sar2401
12:59 PM EDT on April 09, 2015


You make good points and I also noticed the higher percentages in college towns surrounded by less populous areas. A good study nonetheless on the over opinions whether based upon education/science/religion or not. I have just always had an interest in the intersections between science, faith, and politics...........This chart is a very good social tool.
Quoting 375. barbamz:

100 billion barrels of oil at 10 dollars a barrel .... that's a lot of dough joe
382. jpsb
Quoting 359. georgevandenberghe:



There is indeed less NH ice in early spring 2015 than there was in early spring 2012. Areal extent is down about 5% from this time in 2012.

There is not a 1:1 correlation between ice cover and temperature though. Other factors weigh in. 2012 turned out to be a record low summer ice year after starting out higher than some other years in early Spring



I do not like extent, I consider extent an almost meaningless metric when discussing sea ice. I much prefer area since area gives you a good idea how much sea ice there really is. Volume would be even better but I don't think we can accurately measure thickness from space yet.
Extent is largely wind/current driven which can change greatly of time. Area is temperature driven so in the context of AGW area is what I look at.
The black dots indicate a rank of 1, corresponding to the lowest snow water equivalents in the SNOTEL record. (Source: Andrew Slater, NSIDC)

The map shows the rank of snow water equivalent measured on April 1 at sites across the western United States. All those black dots are indicative of record low snowpack. April 1 is typically about the time that snowpack in the mountains of the West peaks.


Link
Quoting 374. jpsb:

When I look at the image below I do not fly into a fit of panic

Panic? lol

You are showing an image that is only a few weeks removed from the average of maximum Arctic sea ice. It tells us very little. Although there is noticeably less ice in 2015 than there was on the same date in 1980. In fact, Arctic sea ice has spent a good deal of this year thus far at or very near the lowest sea ice extent. That tells us nothing about what the minimum will be in September, but it will be substantially less than the 1980 minimum.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22h22 hours ago
@TropicalTidbits @webberweather it could be. the literature on this topic is slim to none.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 22h22 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @webberweather Been a long time since we lived in a -AMO, +PDO world. If AMO has truly flipped for good.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22h22 hours ago
@TropicalTidbits @webberweather don't depress me!
Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 22h22 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @TropicalTidbits BTW, our last 2 AMO flips to cold occurred w/ & following the 1899-1901 & 1968-1970 multi yr ENs. Coincidence?
Quoting 374. jpsb:



Yes if your stocks continue to gain in value then you should do well. This is not a difficult concept.

NOAA: 2012 Hottest & 2nd-Most Extreme Year On Record
The year 2013 ties with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880.
The year 2014 now ranks as the warmest on record since 1880, says NASA scientists.
This Winter (2015) Was Warmest on Record says NOAA

I believe I posted truthfully 2013 was warmer then 2012, dido 2014 and 2015(winter) so there should be less Arctic ice now then in 2012.

When I look at the image below I do not fly into a fit of panic


Well hey, guess what? There is less Arctic ice now than at the same point in 2012.
Link
But that does not mean this will be another record year for the minimum. Indeed, as many have patiently pointed out to you, there are many factors involved.
And again, you, as a layperson, would be wise to listen to scientists when it comes to what to expect in the arctic, and nobody, literally nobody, is saying that every year will bring record low minimums.

When a layperson like yourself, like myself, thinks they've grasped some very basic , obvious, fact that scientists have somehow overlooked or misconstrued, it is most likely that the layperson is mistaken, and not that the scientists are wrong.
Quoting 382. jpsb:


Area is temperature driven so in the context of AGW area is what I look at.

Wrong. Temperature is but one driver, particularly if you mean air temperature.
Quoting 385. Gearsts:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22h22 hours ago
@TropicalTidbits @webberweather it could be. the literature on this topic is slim to none.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 22h22 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @webberweather Been a long time since we lived in a -AMO, +PDO world. If AMO has truly flipped for good.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22h22 hours ago
@TropicalTidbits @webberweather don't depress me!
Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 22h22 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @TropicalTidbits BTW, our last 2 AMO flips to cold occurred w/ & following the 1899-1901 & 1968-1970 multi yr ENs. Coincidence?


PDO may get released tomorrow and it appears we may see another reading over 2.
Link
My blog is always open.
we need to watch out for severe weather today
With California's drought likely to force new water restrictions, many residential and commercial property owners could put a familiar tool to a new use -- financing improvements to conserve water.

The tool is called the Property Assessed Clean Energy program. Known as PACE, the financing mechanism has been a popular program for adding solar power. But it also can be used to finance many water conservation upgrades.

On the water efficiency side, the program can be used to install drip irrigation, some kinds of drought-tolerant landscaping, high-efficiency faucets and shower heads and high-efficiency toilets, said Severn Williams, spokesman for RenovateAmerica. The San Diego-based organization operates its Home Energy Renovation Opportunity — or HERO — program in several local jurisdictions.


Link
392. jpsb
Quoting 378. LAbonbon:


Areas of ice-free ocean absorb more heat from the Sun and become warmer, increasing humidity near the surface.



That is not entirely true.

In September of 2014, the Royal Society of London held a workshop focused on the reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. One outcome of this meeting was a greater understanding of the overall trajectory of September ice extent. In a nutshell, it appears that very large departures from the overall downward trend in September extent are unlikely to persist into the following September. If a given September has very low ice extent, strong winter heat loss results in strong ice growth, so that the %u201Cmemory%u201D of the low ice September ice extent is lost. If a given September has a high ice extent, winter heat loss is more limited, meaning less ice growth. Consequently, while there can be large departures from year to year from the downward linear trend in ice extent (e.g., September 2012 compared to 2014), the natural tendency is for the large departure to dampen out, so that, overall, ice extent stays on the long-term downward trajectory that will eventually lead to seasonally ice free conditions as the Arctic continues to warm in response to rising atmospheric concentrations of Greenhouse gases.

Oh the whole open Arctic waters lose heat, ice cover waters retain heat. Only for a couple months in the summer do open Arctic waters gain heat. And they don't "gain" very much heat.
Quoting barbamz:
Gatwick oil find 'could produce 100bn barrels'
UK Oil and Gas Investments locates ‘world-class potential resource’ in Sussex, but experts believe fracking is needed to extract commercial quantities of oil
The Guardian, Thursday 9 April 2015 09.02 BST
An oil company claimed on Thursday that it had found 100bn barrels of oil close to Gatwick airport, sending the firm’s share price racing in the City and prompting immediate controversy with environmentalists.
The find would have “national significance” and be the largest of its kind in 30 years, according to the small independent explorer, UK Oil and Gas Investments (UKOG), which is working alongside a larger US firm on the project.
Shares in UKOG jumped more than 200% in frantic trading although veteran analysts dismissed talk of a Sussex oil boom as excessive hype.
UKOG admitted that while up to 100bn barrels may be in place 3,000ft (900 metres) below the Sussex countryside only 3-15% of the total would be recovered, based on similar finds in the US.
“We think we’ve found a very significant discovery here, probably the largest [onshore in the UK] in the last 30 years, and we think it has national significance,” Stephen Sanderson, UKOG’s chief executive, told the BBC. ...
UKOG is a ridiculously small penny stock traded on the London exchange with a market cap of a mere $50 million. Their shares have been trading in the $1.50 range, and they regularly issue press releases about alleged oil finds. They have never found any oil, and the goal is to move their stock, as we've seen today. I'm quite certain it's as likely you could find a good gold mine next to Gatwick as you could find recoverable oil.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
we need to watch out for severe weather today
We sure do, today will be the worse day.
Talk Radio physics :

Up is down
Black is white
Bad is good
2 is greater than 4
Left is right
Dark is light

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 31m 31 minutes ago

NMME from April 2015 considerably warmer for El Nino than April 2014 (and also a little higher than March 2015 fcst)



ok....sorry but i've been responding to yours and others post this morning and just before i stepped out of the office for a bit i noticed that they weren't showing up....so let me respond in one post to a few of your posts this morning.....

you mentioned the floooding in the chilean desert and stated that it showed we were in for a strong el nino....while you mentioned it was happening again....that's incorrect as it happned almost 2 weeks ago on march 26th...there's been no flooding since......and yes...the flood is indeed tied into el nino.....as well as most times they experience floods is during times of el nino....however.....the strength of past flooding has been during weak....moderate...and even strong events....so to arbitrary decide this years el nino event will be strong due to this flooding is erroneous


later you posted some dynamical enso models for april and mentioned how closely they tracked.....you stated this was extremely uncommon.....by this you infer we should trust these models......well...i agree with you that the models...except for one outlier model...are in relative agreement....about a .75c spread....however...when we also saw that last year...april of 2014 and you also expressed the same sentiment that this was proof we would see a strong el nino and very well could see a super el nino...it didn't pan out...and regardless of model agreement or not....we're in the spring barrier period...a time when models are highly flawed

Severe Thunderstorms, Tornadoes Expected in Midwest, South Thursday
The pattern this week has some similarities to a classic Heartland spring severe weather outbreak.

First, a bullish southward plunge of the jet stream, or trough, will swing through the Plains and Upper Midwest.

In the atmosphere's lowest levels, progressively warmer and more humid air is arriving from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.

With that vigorous jet stream overlapping warm, humid air and surface features – such as a drylines that divide High Plains dry air from more humid air to the east – and a warm front helping to lift the unstable air, the stage is set for a potential outbreak of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

A few severe storms fired up Tuesday in advance of the main upper-level jet stream dip. Baseball-sized hail was reported in Kentucky and a pair of brief tornadoes were reported in Kansas.
Severe weather occurred again on Wednesday, including a tornado that touched down near the Kansas/Oklahoma state line, as well as large hail and flash flooding in Missouri.

Thursday: There's a widespread threat of severe thunderstorms from central Texas to the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Some supercells with tornadoes possible in the afternoon and early evening hours. There is some uncertainty regarding how unstable the atmosphere will become in the afternoon after morning thunderstorms rumble through the region. This will dictate exactly how much and where we see the most significant severe storms in the afternoon.
Thursday threat cities: St. Louis | Chicago | Little Rock, Arkansas
Thursday night: A broken line of severe t-storms will continue to push east ahead of the advancing cold front in the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley with a threat of hail and damaging straight-line winds.
Thursday night threat cities: Indianapolis | Louisville | Huntsville, Alabama


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SRN/ERN IA...NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091729Z - 091900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 19Z FROM NORTHERN
MO INTO NWRN IL.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE/FOCUS ASCENT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS FROM NWRN MO...INTO SERN IA BY 21Z. LATEST VIS IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENING THERMALS ALONG N-S WIND SHIFT OVER IA/MO AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM NORTH OF MCI TO NEAR
LWD. AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
STRONG SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO UTILIZE SHEAR ALONG E-W BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/NRN
IL AND TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH THE MOST INTENSE STRUCTURES.

TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
Two words...cardboard tube.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
370. sar2401
12:59 PM EDT on April 09, 2015


You make good points and I also noticed the higher percentages in college towns surrounded by less populous areas. A good study nonetheless on the over opinions whether based upon education/science/religion or not. I have just always had an interest in the intersections between science, faith, and politics...........This chart is a very good social tool.
Yes, well, public opinion polls which claim to be a scientific breakthrough need more proof than just releasing the study. It may very well be right but I don't know that yet. I always keep in the back of my mind the 1936 Literary Digest debacle. The magazine polled a huge number of people (around 10 million if I remember right) and they predicted Alf Landon would be the landslide winner over FDR. He wasn't, of course, even though previous polls had correctly predicted the results of the four previous elections. The grossly wrong poll was the end of the magazine. We now know that that their polling techniques included a lot of bias, but every type of poll includes some built in bias. Whether or not that bias is fatal to the results can only be known by digging into all the details of how the poll was constructed and run, something I can't do with this poll yet.
402. jpsb
Quoting 387. Misanthroptimist:


Wrong. Temperature is but one driver, particularly if you mean air temperature.


You need to contact the National Snow and Ice center ASAP so they can update thier web site

Thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (°C)0.58

The ice thickness increases at a rate roughly proportional to the square root of the cumulative FDD (Freezing Degree Days) . Formulas such as this are empirical, meaning they are calculated only with observed data, so they really are simplifications of the ice growth processes. The formulas assume that the ice growth occurs in calm water and is reasonably consistent, and they do not take into account sea ice motion, snow cover, and other surface conditions.
Quoting 392. jpsb:



Areas of ice-free ocean absorb more heat from the Sun and become warmer, increasing humidity near the surface.



That is not entirely true.

In September of 2014, the Royal Society of London held a workshop focused on the reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. One outcome of this meeting was a greater understanding of the overall trajectory of September ice extent. In a nutshell, it appears that very large departures from the overall downward trend in September extent are unlikely to persist into the following September. If a given September has very low ice extent, strong winter heat loss results in strong ice growth, so that the “memory” of the low ice September ice extent is lost. If a given September has a high ice extent, winter heat loss is more limited, meaning less ice growth. Consequently, while there can be large departures from year to year from the downward linear trend in ice extent (e.g., September 2012 compared to 2014), the natural tendency is for the large departure to dampen out, so that, overall, ice extent stays on the long-term downward trajectory that will eventually lead to seasonally ice free conditions as the Arctic continues to warm in response to rising atmospheric concentrations of Greenhouse gases.

Oh the whole open Arctic waters lose heat, ice cover waters retain heat. Only for a couple months in the summer to open Arctic waters gain heat. And they don't "gain" very much heat.

So, according to your source, The Royal Society, Arctic ice extent may fluctuate from year to year as it continues in a long term downward trajectory as a result of global warming as a result of increased atmospheric CO2.
Or do you somehow not see that's what they're saying?
Quoting 392. jpsb:



Areas of ice-free ocean absorb more heat from the Sun and become warmer, increasing humidity near the surface.



That is not entirely true.

In September of 2014, the Royal Society of London held a workshop focused on the reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. One outcome of this meeting was a greater understanding of the overall trajectory of September ice extent. In a nutshell, it appears that very large departures from the overall downward trend in September extent are unlikely to persist into the following September. If a given September has very low ice extent, strong winter heat loss results in strong ice growth, so that the %u201Cmemory%u201D of the low ice September ice extent is lost. If a given September has a high ice extent, winter heat loss is more limited, meaning less ice growth. Consequently, while there can be large departures from year to year from the downward linear trend in ice extent (e.g., September 2012 compared to 2014), the natural tendency is for the large departure to dampen out, so that, overall, ice extent stays on the long-term downward trajectory that will eventually lead to seasonally ice free conditions as the Arctic continues to warm in response to rising atmospheric concentrations of Greenhouse gases.

Oh the whole open Arctic waters lose heat, ice cover waters retain heat. Only for a couple months in the summer do open Arctic waters gain heat. And they don't "gain" very much heat.

Your post has very little to do with the NASA piece I posted. BTW, since a link was not included for the extensive quote, I found it here, on NSIDC's site. That piece included this interesting graphic:


Figure 4. This graph shows future projections of September sea ice extent under various future greenhouse gas emission levels. Limiting the warming in 2100 to about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit) under the RCP2.6 emission scenario would help to stabilize ice conditions at levels seen today. The RCP8.5 emission scenario (warming by about 4 degrees Celsius or 7 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century) would result in a seasonally ice-free Arctic by the end of this century.

Credit: Julienne Stroeve
Here they come. Storms firing along the front coming up from Missouri into Iowa.

Quoting 396. ricderr:


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 31m 31 minutes ago

NMME from April 2015 considerably warmer for El Nino than April 2014 (and also a little higher than March 2015 fcst)



ok....sorry but i've been responding to yours and others post this morning and just before i stepped out of the office for a bit i noticed that they weren't showing up....so let me respond in one post to a few of your posts this morning.....

you mentioned the floooding in the chilean desert and stated that it showed we were in for a strong el nino....while you mentioned it was happening again....that's incorrect as it happned almost 2 weeks ago on march 26th...there's been no flooding since......and yes...the flood is indeed tied into el nino.....as well as most times they experience floods is during times of el nino....however.....the strength of past flooding has been during weak....moderate...and even strong events....so to arbitrary decide this years el nino event will be strong due to this flooding is erroneous


later you posted some dynamical enso models for april and mentioned how closely they tracked.....you stated this was extremely uncommon.....by this you infer we should trust these models......well...i agree with you that the models...except for one outlier model...are in relative agreement....about a .75c spread....however...when we also saw that last year...april of 2014 and you also expressed the same sentiment that this was proof we would see a strong el nino and very well could see a super el nino...it didn't pan out...and regardless of model agreement or not....we're in the spring barrier period...a time when models are highly flawed


Yep..and enough spread to fit 10 Nino's..As of lately tho, they are in relative agreement that some warm water is indeed making its way to where Nino is suppose to be...The coast of N.W. South America...Those warm episodes in the Mid Pacific should be called MPO's or Mid Pacific Oscillations.. Not El Nino...Just my sarcastic two cents while fighting a migraine.
Quoting 403. hydrus:




Each run gets wetter for FL. Great news as a break in this heat would be nice. It seems much more relentless this years compared to years passed.
Mmmm. Gearing up for spring now that pollen season is starting. Last year was pretty quite for severe weather (on average) in the ATL area. Wonder what this year will bring. Either way, make sure your batteries are fresh, your gear is checked, and your weather radios are working guys and gals (from all over.)
411. jpsb
Quoting 404. SeriouslySushi:


So, according to your source, The Royal Society, Arctic ice extent may fluctuate from year to year as it continues in a long term downward trajectory as a result of global warming as a result of increased atmospheric CO2.
Or do you somehow not see that's what they're saying?



But of course they are going to say that! So what? I was merely point out that it is incorrect to claim open Arctic waters are a net heat gainer for planet Earth. They are not, it fact open Arctic water lose heat.
Quoting 385. Gearsts:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22h22 hours ago
@TropicalTidbits @webberweather it could be. the literature on this topic is slim to none.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 22h22 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @webberweather Been a long time since we lived in a -AMO, +PDO world. If AMO has truly flipped for good.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 22h22 hours ago
@TropicalTidbits @webberweather don't depress me!
Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 22h22 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @TropicalTidbits BTW, our last 2 AMO flips to cold occurred w/ & following the 1899-1901 & 1968-1970 multi yr ENs. Coincidence? How about a cold AMO and PDO, and what effects will this have on worldwide temps? The oceans drive the atmosphere not the other way around. With a Nino on the horizon, I would expect a warm year temp wise coming up. Lets wait for the PDO and AMO to turn cold to see what happens to the worldwide temps and ice cover, shouldn't take more than a decade or two to find out. Any one want to bet the temps will fall back to the reading we had in the 70s and at the beginning of satellite's recording temps.
Link

Interesting that a local met states that El Nino is expected to form. Isn't it already declared?
Quoting 334. dabirds:

Did you get any wet stuff ILwthr?

0.90" as of 9:30am this morning. I was about to give up hope after I watched last nights storms evaporate before I headed to bed. Woke up to thunder this morning. It was much needed. It was a rather moderate spread out rainfall. Bubble rain as I like to call it.



#*(&@* can't post a radar image because O)(*@*(@ is a piece of (#&*#(!
Quoting 411. jpsb:



But of course they are going to say that! So what? I was merely point out that it is incorrect to claim open Arctic waters are a net heat gainer for planet Earth. They are not, it fact open Arctic water lose heat.

Better notify NASA that they have their basic science wrong so they can correct that posting (and all their other projects...).
416. jpsb
Quoting 405. LAbonbon:


Your post has very little to do with the NASA piece I posted. BTW, since a link was not included for the extensive quote, I found it here, on NSIDC's site. That piece included this interesting graphic:


Figure 4. This graph shows future projections of September sea ice extent under various future greenhouse gas emission levels. Limiting the warming in 2100 to about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit) under the RCP2.6 emission scenario would help to stabilize ice conditions at levels seen today. The RCP8.5 emission scenario (warming by about 4 degrees Celsius or 7 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century) would result in a seasonally ice-free Arctic by the end of this century.

Credit: Julienne Stroeve



I just get tried of hearing over and over again the incorrect claim that open Arctic waters gain heat for the planet. Open Arctic waters cool the planet.
Quoting 413. tampabaymatt:

Link

Interesting that a local met states that El Nino is expected to form. Isn't it already declared?


Yes El-Nino is already here you can tell from what is going on weather wise all over the World. Floods in Chile, Droughts raging in SE Asia, Severe Weather Season down in the dumps across the US, Strong Southern jet now ongoing which is what is about to turn FL wet finally starting Saturday, and continued westerly winds across the Equator.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR
RAPIDS IOWA TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE CELLS FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Empirical models, by definition, "are simply a representation of data but may contain parameters that have physical significance. These models are not based on scientific laws and therefore aid little in understanding physical processes."

Snow and Glacier Hydrology, Volume 792367677, By P. Singh, Vijay P. Singh
Quoting 390. hurricanes2018:

we need to watch out for severe weather today
The open spot in the clouds that was S of StL earlier made it to my area when headed back from lunch, temp shot to 76, acc'ding to my WU page, forgot to look at my truck's. To my N showing 70 w/ 61 dew pt, to my SW 73 w/ 67 dew pt. Both are a tick above 29.7", so still dropping, but not much. S-SSW winds still 10-20, but seeing more upper range and gusts are now near or at 30.
Quoting 408. hydrus:

Yep..and enough spread to fit 10 Nino's..As of lately tho, they are in relative agreement that some warm water is indeed making its way to where Nino is suppose to be...The coast of N.W. South America...Those warm episodes in the Mid Pacific should be called MPO's or Mid Pacific Oscillations.. Not El Nino...Just my sarcastic two cents while fighting a migraine.

Sorry you're not feeling well, hydrus :( Hope it goes away soon.

I get them too and it sucks. FWIW, the blog has never helped them go away...
This is for all my Floridians out there. America is with you.
Quoting 411. jpsb:



But of course they are going to say that! So what? I was merely point out that it is incorrect to claim open Arctic waters are a net heat gainer for planet Earth. They are not, it fact open Arctic water lose heat.

I'm sorry but you can't say a source is valid and credible for some things, but not others. I mean, you can, I guess, but it doesn't make a great deal of sense, logically speaking, and it makes it look like you're a very selectively motivated thinker who accepts only the information he finds palatable.
You are right, though. Of course they're going to say that, along with every major scientific body and institution in the entire world, who say the same thing.
Because it's true, and sorry, but no amount of "look here's a cold thing happening" type arguments are going to convince anyone here that you're on to something that an entire body of science has overlooked, misunderstood, or lied about.
Just issued ..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR
RAPIDS IOWA TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE CELLS FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...GRAMS/CORFIDI
Quoting 402. jpsb:



You need to contact the National Snow and Ice center ASAP so they can update thier web site

Thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (°C)0.58

The ice thickness increases at a rate roughly proportional to the square root of the cumulative FDD (Freezing Degree Days) . Formulas such as this are empirical, meaning they are calculated only with observed data, so they really are simplifications of the ice growth processes. The formulas assume that the ice growth occurs in calm water and is reasonably consistent, and they do not take into account sea ice motion, snow cover, and other surface conditions.

Make up your mind. Are you talking about freezing or melting?

Oh, and to help you out on the whole summer insolation thing in the arctic.


Turns out that there is a whole lot of sunlight in the Arctic for open water to absorb in the summer.
Northern end of the line that's moved into Iowa.
Lead storm is severe T storm warned.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
137 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 132 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DUNLAP...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CHILLICOTHE AROUND 145 PM CDT.
LACON AND SPARLAND AROUND 200 PM CDT.
WASHBURN AROUND 205 PM CDT.
VARNA AROUND 215 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HOPEWELL...MARSHALL COUNTY
AIRPORT...LAKE WILDWOOD AND LA ROSE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 41.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
I'd love to know how many tornado watches actually become tornado warnings, but I don't suppose thee's a figure for that.
Tornado warning for several counties in Central Illinois along with a Severe TS Warning ..

sky is very dark in that direction ..
Quoting LAbonbon:

Sorry you're not feeling well, hydrus :( Hope it goes away soon.

I get them too and it sucks. FWIW, the blog has never helped them go away...
What, our little "discussion" don't help your migraine? Well, I never....

It's hotter than blue blazes here. 92 degrees with a dewpoint of 67, sunny, hazy. Looks just like summer with the exception of those thunderstorm things we used to get. My only hope is the cold front tomorrow, and that's a pretty faint hope, but at least it will kill off this insufferable heat. I still say it's weird to be looking at a tornado watches in Wisconsin on April 9 while nothing at all is happening here.
Quoting 420. dabirds:

The open spot in the clouds that was S of StL earlier made it to my area when headed back from lunch, temp shot to 76, acc'ding to my WU page, forgot to look at my truck's. To my N showing 70 w/ 61 dew pt, to my SW 73 w/ 67 dew pt. Both are a tick above 29.7", so still dropping, but not much. S-SSW winds still 10-20, but seeing more upper range and gusts are now near or at 30.



It's almost 80 here with 15-20 mph SSW winds.
Quoting 431. Sfloridacat5:




Hail being reported locally from that storm just to the north of my location ..

Tornado Watch

Statement as of 1:50 PM CDT on April 09, 2015


The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 41 in
effect until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following areas

In Illinois this watch includes 22 counties

In central Illinois

Christian De Witt Logan
Macon Marshall Mason
McLean Menard Peoria
Piatt Sangamon Tazewell
Woodford

In east central Illinois

Champaign Vermilion

In north central Illinois

Stark

In west central Illinois

Cass Fulton Knox
Morgan Schuyler Scott

This includes the cities of... Bloomington... Champaign...
Danville... Decatur... Galesburg... Havana... Jacksonville...
Lincoln... normal... Peoria... Springfield... Taylorville and Urbana.



Goetsch


436. bwi
Quoting 419. LAbonbon:

Empirical models, by definition, "are simply a representation of data but may contain parameters that have physical significance. These models are not based on scientific laws and therefore aid little in understanding physical processes."

Snow and Glacier Hydrology, Volume 792367677, By P. Singh, Vijay P. Singh


Vijay Singh is a Fijian golfer too!
Very wild and wet weather pattern setting up from East Texas to FL from Saturday thru all next week. Looks like any (severe) weather should be focused across the South going forward. Finally and I mean finally the dry weather pattern across FL is going to break. It has been a very dry stretch since March 1st across FL
Quoting 436. bwi:



Vijay Singh is a Fijian golfer too!
Both names are common in that part of the world....The English John Smith being the equivalent.
Quoting 403. hydrus:




Euro just finished and its almost identical to the GFS.
confirmed tornado west of Rome, Illinois ..
Split flow pattern is here and continues thru day 10 on the Euro. Great news for Floridians which have experienced high heat and dry weather the last 39 days or so.

Quoting 409. StormTrackerScott:



Each run gets wetter for FL. Great news as a break in this heat would be nice. It seems much more relentless this years compared to years passed.
Absolutely too wet here. It appears that it will be the backward pattern for Florida. West coast residents will see some rain, but not like central and east.
Quoting 436. bwi:



Vijay Singh is a Fijian golfer too!


He shot 3 over par in the opening round of the Masters, today.
Yes El-Nino is already here you can tell from what is going on weather wise all over the World. Floods in Chile, Droughts raging in SE Asia, Severe Weather Season down in the dumps across the US, Strong Southern jet now ongoing which is what is about to turn FL wet finally starting Saturday, and continued westerly winds across the Equator.

I've decided to become a member of mythbusters


let's look at the facts...or lack of facts...of this post

floods in chile......typically linked to el nino...but not always......we count that one as FACTUAL

droughts in se asia.....have been ongoing since the early part of 2014....we count that one as BUSTED

severe weather season down in the dumps.....lowest year for tornado activity was in a non el nino year
and although tornado activity is just under half of much of normal......0ver 85 percent of our tornado activity occurs from now through the end of the year....we have to count that claim as PLAUSIBLE

strong southern jet....not in place yet.....another one on the BUSTED list

continued westerly winds across the equator......wind anomalies have been at average for the past two weeks....BUSTED

A bit off topic, sorry (though important in case of flooding too) - but my jaw was dropping when I just read those numbers below (confirmed elsewhere a bit clearer):

Swimming lessons in Bangladesh made law to stop drownings
BBC, 43 minutes ago
The government of Bangladesh has made swimming lessons compulsory in schools, to reduce the number of children who drown in the country's many waterways.
According to UN figures, about 18,000 children between five and 17 die each year [in Bangladesh] because they cannot swim.
The education ministry says rural ponds and lakes will be made suitable for lessons and university pools opened up.
But some say the directive will be hard to implement because of a lack of pools in urban areas.
Drowning has been described as a hidden epidemic in Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world and situated in the low-lying Ganges River delta.
The victims are mostly children from poor sections of society who live close to major rivers, ponds and lakes.
Ponds are the main bathing place for more than two-thirds of the country's 160 million people.
Education Secretary Nazrul Islam Khan told AFP news agency that an average of 48 people drown every day in Bangladesh.
"It's a huge figure, which is 20 times higher than Australia," he said. ...
The storms in southern Ohio heading into West Virginia are producing many severe thunderstorm warnings although no confirmed tornadoes. This area may intensify this afternoon.
Quoting 443. hydrus:

Absolutely too wet here. It appears that it will be the backward pattern for Florida. West coast residents will see some rain, but not like central and east.


That's typical of this time of year due to the SSW flow aloft. Need to watch later next week for excessive rains though training in off the Gulf across C FL as the models are looking very interesting considering Gulf SST's are near 80 already. My point this trough next week is going to have a rich moisture source to tap into.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40...

DISCUSSION...TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED WITH
INITIAL STORMS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS DEVELOPING E/NE AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH AREAS WILL HAVE STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTING RISKS FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...GRAMS/CORFIDI
Hey wabit, did you see post earlier that Timmer was headed to your neck of the woods? And just like that warned cell pops up in neighborhood, sorry I jinxed ya!

Up to 78 to my SW, dew pt still mid 60s, up to 75 to my N, press continues to drop, now below 29.7" & gusts are ticking up as well as avg, mostly SW now too.
Quoting 445. ricderr:

Yes El-Nino is already here you can tell from what is going on weather wise all over the World. Floods in Chile, Droughts raging in SE Asia, Severe Weather Season down in the dumps across the US, Strong Southern jet now ongoing which is what is about to turn FL wet finally starting Saturday, and continued westerly winds across the Equator.

I've decided to become a member of mythbusters


let's look at the facts...or lack of facts...of this post

floods in chile......typically linked to el nino...but not always......we count that one as FACTUAL

droughts in se asia.....have been ongoing since the early part of 2014....we count that one as BUSTED

severe weather season down in the dumps.....lowest year for tornado activity was in a non el nino year
and although tornado activity is just under half of much of normal......0ver 85 percent of our tornado activity occurs from now through the end of the year....we have to count that claim as PLAUSIBLE

strong southern jet....not in place yet.....another one on the BUSTED list

continued westerly winds across the equator......wind anomalies have been at average for the past two weeks....BUSTED




Yeah whatever. I mean really . You mean to tell me there is no southern jet? Look at every single model which now dumps lots of rain across the south the next 10 days. SE Asia droughts not linked to El-Nino since when? My point Ric your fishing except your fishing in an empty pond.

Southern jet is becoming increasingly dominate

60hrs


Hence precip heaviest across the South Euro is the same as is the CMC.
Quoting dabirds:
Hey wabit, did you see post earlier that Timmer was headed to your neck of the woods? And just like that warned cell pops up in neighborhood, sorry I jinxed ya!

Up to 78 to my SW, dew pt still mid 60s, up to 75 to my N, press continues to drop, now below 29.7" & gusts are ticking up as well as avg, mostly SW now too.


Comment # 321 I posted earlier today

Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN 2h 2 hours ago
Initial target area this afternoon Springfield to Peoria, IL.. Also will be arc of supercells rolling out of eastern IA mid afternoon

Pretty accurate. I just wish Reed would turn on his feed and let people watch.

When he does have his feed on he will turn it off as soon as things get exciting.
Quoting 435. whitewabit:


Tornado Watch

Statement as of 1:50 PM CDT on April 09, 2015


The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 41 in
effect until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following areas

In Illinois this watch includes 22 counties

In central Illinois

Christian De Witt Logan
Macon Marshall Mason
McLean Menard Peoria
Piatt Sangamon Tazewell
Woodford

In east central Illinois

Champaign Vermilion

In north central Illinois

Stark

In west central Illinois

Cass Fulton Knox
Morgan Schuyler Scott

This includes the cities of... Bloomington... Champaign...
Danville... Decatur... Galesburg... Havana... Jacksonville...
Lincoln... normal... Peoria... Springfield... Taylorville and Urbana.



Goetsch



We're a mile S of Christian cty line, Taylorville airport is the N station I refer to. Looks to be a long afternoon in C IL.
Quoting 451. dabirds:

Hey wabit, did you see post earlier that Timmer was headed to your neck of the woods? And just like that warned cell pops up in neighborhood, sorry I jinxed ya!

Up to 78 to my SW, dew pt still mid 60s, up to 75 to my N, press continues to drop, now below 29.7" & gusts are ticking up as well as avg, mostly SW now too.


Yep saw that .. was just one small cell that developed very quickly .. moving very fast .. and has continued to develop on its way northeast .. no word on any damage .. tornado was reported on the ground .. but haven't heard how long .. storm showed a hook for about 10 minutes though ..

we were having gusts up to 25 mph at the time it was developing just 15 miles to my north ..
Yeah whatever. I mean really . You mean to tell me there is no southern jet? Look at every single model which now dumps lots of rain across the south the next 10 days. SE Asia droughts not linked to El-Nino since when? My point Ric your fishing except your fishing in an empty pond.

Southern jet is becoming increasingly dominate



i thought that you would bring that up...that's why before i listed it i went and looked at present...archived and forcasted charts.........you can find it here

Link
Quoting 457. ricderr:

Yeah whatever. I mean really . You mean to tell me there is no southern jet? Look at every single model which now dumps lots of rain across the south the next 10 days. SE Asia droughts not linked to El-Nino since when? My point Ric your fishing except your fishing in an empty pond.

Southern jet is becoming increasingly dominate



i thought that you would bring that up...that's why before i listed it i went and looked at present...archived and forcasted charts.........you can find it here

Link


Split flow pattern with disturbances riding the southern Jet. Classic case of this setting up. Ever go to Dr. Steve Gregory's blog or even Doc's blog last week had a post about this set up. Remember?

Post by Doc back on March 31st.

One hallmark of El Nino across the U.S. is split flow, with the polar jet stream retreating to the north and the subtropical jet stream intensifying across the southern tier of states. This pattern tends to keep unstable air shunted toward the Gulf Coast, hiking the chance of severe weather there (especially in Florida) but reducing the odds over the nation's heartland.

Long-range models for mid-April are suggesting an El Nino-flavored pattern may emerge, with prominent split flow (see Figure 2, below). This is partly related to an intense Madden-Julian Oscillation event, the strongest on record (see our March 18 post), whose impacts are now reaching the eastern tropical Pacific and reinforcing the trend toward El Nino conditions. On its heels, a strong downwelling (or warming-phase) oceanic Kelvin wave will be pushing slowly eastward within the eastern equatorial Pacific over the next month, according to WSI's Michael Ventrice. This should favor increased organized thunderstorm activity over the eastern tropical Pacific basin, which will act to accelerate the subtropical jet stream over the U.S. through the end of spring, says Ventrice. This spells heavy precipitation threats (including some severe weather) across the southeastern tier of the nation over the upcoming months under the developing split-flow type pattern.

Unfortunately, next week's strong western trough may bypass California, further reducing hope of an Awesome April that might take a dent out of the severe drought and heat now plaguing the state. If a strong El Nino were to develop and persist, it could increase the likelihood of substantial rain in California during the 2015-16 wet season.
Quoting dabirds:
We're a mile S of Christian cty line, Taylorville airport is the N station I refer to. Looks to be a long afternoon in C IL.
This is kind of what I thought would happen since the beginning of the week. A second round is now developing from southern Iowa stretching across Missouri. These storms contain a number of discrete cells, and they are starting to form a line. It looks like some pretty big hail and high winds if nothing else.
Pretty cool stuff. I'm also waiting to see how severe the storms get down across Arkansas and N.E. Texas where the CAPE is really high.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 459. sar2401:

This is kind of what I thought would happen since the beginning of the week. A second round is now developing from southern Iowa stretching across Missouri. These storms contain a number of discrete cells, and they are starting to form a line. It looks like some pretty big hail and high winds if nothing else.



It looks somewhat similar to February 20th, 2014 as there was a line of storms quickly coming out of central missouri but unexpectedly produced a number of weak tornadoes near where dabirds is at.
Squall line is forming..

Quoting 445. ricderr:

Yes El-Nino is already here you can tell from what is going on weather wise all over the World. Floods in Chile, Droughts raging in SE Asia, Severe Weather Season down in the dumps across the US, Strong Southern jet now ongoing which is what is about to turn FL wet finally starting Saturday, and continued westerly winds across the Equator.

I've decided to become a member of mythbusters


let's look at the facts...or lack of facts...of this post

floods in chile......typically linked to el nino...but not always......we count that one as FACTUAL

droughts in se asia.....have been ongoing since the early part of 2014....we count that one as BUSTED

severe weather season down in the dumps.....lowest year for tornado activity was in a non el nino year
and although tornado activity is just under half of much of normal......0ver 85 percent of our tornado activity occurs from now through the end of the year....we have to count that claim as PLAUSIBLE

strong southern jet....not in place yet.....another one on the BUSTED list

continued westerly winds across the equator......wind anomalies have been at average for the past two weeks....BUSTED