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Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela
Waves
Waves
Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks like a new band is setting up near Bradenton.
... Flash Flood Watch in effect through Tuesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions all of northwest
Florida... including the following areas... central Walton...
Gadsden... Holmes... inland Dixie... inland Taylor... inland
Walton... Jackson... Lafayette... Madison... coastal Dixie and
coastal Taylor... and south Walton counties.

* Through Tuesday morning

* rain bands from Tropical Storm Debby will produce very heavy
rainfall rates and could lead to flash flooding. Projected rain
totals through Tuesday night range from around 2 to 4 inches
near along and north of Interstate 10... to as much as 8 to 12
inches over parts of Gulf and Franklin counties.

* Flash flooding would be most likely in urban areas and cities
as well as flood prone locations and low lying areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.


2003. LargoFl
2004. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
I have to tell you,although it was just a tropical storm..outside of having no hurricane force winds..we DID..go thru a hurricane yesterday, in my entire life i have never seen so much angry rain and wind and tornado's all over the place, was an angry day here,luckily my house is on high ground but so many had flooding yesterday, hopefully it wont be like that today, this was for sure..a historic Rain event here, quite possibily breaking all time rainfall totals for one day..we will see when they tally it up


By the way, after you'd said Redington was "under water", I waited for that break around 7pm to go check out the whole Gulf blvd. area. While there were some areas of flooding in Redington, IRB, and Madiera, all the roads I was on remained reasonably driveable (I took some video I'll try to post later, or at least take stills from).

What was really alarming wasn't the flooding but the erosion which extended to maybe six feet in front of the dune line in places. Since it looks relatively dry today, I'm heading out there later to get some shots of it, but you should check it out if you get a chance. You know the bench to the right of the beach access closest to the Park blvd. bridge? It about marks the edge of where the line of erosion comes to.

I checked out St. Pete too, and though I didn't come across any major flooding (nothing like Emily last year where parts of 34st were up to a foot deep), the docks at Harborage Marina (3rd st.) were nearly level with the old Dali Museum's parking lot. I didn't get any shots of that since it got too dark.
Quoting LargoFl:
..looks like i slept thru this squall line, its going to wake up tampa tho....
,it woke me up about 4:30am,easily 70+mph gusts in that band,streets flooded(im on siesta key),canals overflowing,tree branches down everywhere,still gusting to 40mph,by far the strongest weather ive seen in years here!!
2007. LargoFl
Quoting stillwaiting:
,it woke me up about 4:30am,easily 70+mph gusts in that band,streets flooded(im on siesta key),canals overflowing,tree branches down everywhere,still gusting to 40mph,by far the strongest weather ive seen in years here!!
geez, this storm even though just a tropical storm.is amazing, and its not going anywhere soon..gee
Morning all, What a day yesterday was ended up with 7.27 inches yesterday and got .91 so far today not much wind to speak of.This is from zephyrhills Have a great day and keep the boats around u never know when u will need it.
2009. LargoFl
Quoting CatfishJones:


By the way, after you'd said Redington was "under water", I waited for that break around 7pm to go check out the whole Gulf blvd. area. While there were some areas of flooding in Redington, IRB, and Madiera, all the roads I was on remained reasonably driveable (I took some video I'll try to post later, or at least take stills from).

What was really alarming wasn't the flooding but the erosion which extended to maybe six feet in front of the dune line in places. Since it looks relatively dry today, I'm heading out there later to get some shots of it, but you should check it out if you get a chance. You know the bench to the right of the beach access closest to the Park blvd. bridge? It about marks the edge of where the line of erosion comes to.

I checked out St. Pete too, and though I didn't come across any major flooding (nothing like Emily last year where parts of 34st were up to a foot deep), the docks at Harborage Marina (3rd st.) were nearly level with the old Dali Museum's parking lot.
it was amazing alright..in clearwater beach the water came up to the hotels gee..high tide today is around 7 am or so..might get some more flooding again there..and if not today..tomorrow the winds will shift, coming IN from the gulf..that will be bad for the beach area's also
2010. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Good Morning.. No rain here but windy (Cape Coral) hope all are safe. Looks to be a long few days for us on the west coast of FL.
2012. teammc
Good morning, in Bradenton, FL. I got 5 inches of rain yesterday. Kept losing electric off and on last night. Got a gust as high as 60 mph. Looks like I might get a little break this morning fom the rain.
2013. icmoore
Good morning everyone. I just emptied the rain gauge and yesterday's total here was 8.70" with the previous day of 1.70". It is not raining now which will be a big help when I get the dogs up and out. It is very windy and my backyard area is flooded so I didn't walk around in the dark yet but I did see the side vent on the shed ripped off so I'm sure there is a lot of water in there I will check later. So did Debby come clean with all her secrets while I napped?:)
Good morning. I mostly lurk but want to thank Largo for the local commentary yesterday. We're in Sarasota but trying to navigate a route for two Eckerd College students who begin summer term today. With the Skyway Bridge still closed, not quite seeing it yet. :)
Good morning. The 0z Euro put a major hurricane off the East coast after Debby crosses Florida, but at this point I question whether it will survive long enough to reach the Atlantic...

New GFS has it sitting off of Pasco and Hernado Counties for days and making landfall just north of Tampa Bay.
2017. LargoFl
Quoting msmanatee:
Good morning. I mostly lurk but want to thank Largo for the local commentary yesterday. We're in Sarasota but trying to navigate a route for two Eckerd College students who begin summer term today. With the Skyway Bridge still closed, not quite seeing it yet. :)
ty it was surely a bad day all around for folks
2018. teammc
Better check most colleges are closed today
2019. LargoFl
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
New GFS has it sitting off of Pasco and Hernado Counties for days and making landfall just north of Tampa Bay.
yeah that is something im afraid of happening, the GFS model days ago..had it coming right INTO tampa bay..whew..we'll see what happens a few days from now
2020. LargoFl
news reports say there is alot of damage in pass-a-grille, thats in southern pinellas, tree's and powerlines down, power out, and home damage..bad times for those folks today from that tornado yesterday..im sure..lots of bad reports are going to be posted today from all over central florida, what a day it was huh
Radar is filling in around Debby and offshore of the west coast.
Yikes:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL
503 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012


...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT TAMPA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 7.11 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT TAMPA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 5.29 SET IN 1995

wet
Good Morning! Northern Holmes Co. has gusty winds and on and off medium to light rains. So far rains here are beneficial--no flooding. Thinking about all those south east of here that have been and are continuing to be hammered by extreme downpours and tornados.
2024. LargoFl
tv news said the howard franklin bridge is open, but be careful..they have 50-60 mph wind gusts from there all the way into tampa, two hands on the wheel if your going across..gee
2025. LargoFl
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yikes:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL
503 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012


...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT TAMPA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 7.11 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT TAMPA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 5.29 SET IN 1995
wow, records broken all over the place alright..one report last night had clearwater with 13 and a half inches and it was still raining
2026. GPTGUY
Quoting Mamasteph:
Mississippi..declared a state of emergency just because Debby was "looking" at them..Florida being pummeled with rain and tornado's and not even a "tropical storm" E.O.C. meeting anywhere..something wrong with this pic...forcasters saying some places due to up to 12 inches of rain in places..where are the sandbags available for people..or shelters for the some in the "flood zones"..OHHH thats right..Debby was going to Texas,,so Gov'nor went off somewhere else..lol..when T.S. Fay came thru was an entirely diff. ballgame..they let people prepare..



It wasn't Mississippi it was Louisiana that declared a state of emergency
2027. LargoFl
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...ELEVATED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND ASSOCIATED BEACH
EROSION. OVERWASH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADWAYS.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMES TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING WILL BE AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH SOME OVERWASH
FROM BREAKING WAVE ACTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING HIGH TIDE. THE HIGH SURF AND BREAKING
WAVE ACTION WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ELEVATED ALONG
AREA BEACHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING...OR
WILL OCCUR WITHIN 12 HOURS. TAKE FINAL ACTIONS NOW TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&
2028. LargoFl
Tropical Storm Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
601 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL STATIONARY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY HAS WEAKENED OVERNIGHT AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HIL LSBOROUGH...
MANATEE AND SARASOTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HIL LSBOROUGH...
MANATEE AND SARASOTA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
TAMPA BAY.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6N...LONGITUDE 85.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 170 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FL...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL. STORM MOTION WAS
STATIONARY. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT THIS TIME ARE INLAND FLOODING AND THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN
A PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 12 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
Quoting GPTGUY:



It wasn't Mississippi it was Louisiana that declared a state of emergency


It was lifted
2030. LargoFl
The cell that produced the tornado near St. Petersburg yesterday came through like a hurricane. The wind gusts were in excess of hurricane force with that cell. Also, someone was in the tornado near Clearwater and captured the tornado's winds of 100-110 mph on video according to ABC Action 5 AM News this morning.

Damage to part of my roof indicates that the winds with that cell were likely in excess of hurricane force. The damage is consistent with winds over 80 mph. Going to be costly to fix UGH.
Quoting LargoFl:
wow, records broken all over the place alright..one report last night had clearwater with 13 and a half inches and it was still raining


Up here in Palm Harbor, the weather station near US 19 and Alderman recorded 9.75 inches of rain. At one point, our pool pump couldn't keep up with the rate of rain falling forcing water right under the entrance to our home. Living in Florida my entire life, I've never seen something like this before.
2033. LargoFl
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
The cell that produced the tornado near St. Petersburg yesterday came through like a hurricane. The wind gusts were in excess of hurricane force with that cell. Also, someone was in the tornado near Clearwater and captured the tornado's winds of 100-110 mph on video according to ABC Action 5 AM News this morning.
gee amazing how bad it was yesterday,cannot believe how many tornado's there were
2034. LargoFl
2035. LargoFl
2036. LargoFl
....down in pass-a-grille
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yikes:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL
503 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012


...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT TAMPA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 7.11 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT TAMPA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 5.29 SET IN 1995

wet


So much for the Tampa shields.
Quoting teamhurtado:


Up here in Palm Harbor, the weather station near US 19 and Alderman recorded 9.75 inches of rain. At one point, our pool pump couldn't keep up with the rate of rain falling forcing water right under the entrance to our home. Living in Florida my entire life, I've never seen something like this before.


Lived in PH for 12 years and can't think of where that weather station is. Near the Publix in the Riviere Plaza...or on the other side of 19 near Walmart? There's a Circle K on the SE corner underneath that huge cell tower, and there's another strip mall on the SW corner, so not sure where that station is.
Wow!!,what a morning!!,woke up to winds easily gusting over 70mph as a nasty line came thru,south west winds have backed up the canals/storm drains,the streets a river and as long as this sw wind is kicking im flooded in.
Quoting GPTGUY:



It wasn't Mississippi it was Louisiana that declared a state of emergency

Here are some locations for sandbags in Florida. If you need another location, let me know and I will be happy to find them.
Citrus: SANDBAG LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN OPENED AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: GRAND MARCH PARK OFF GROVER CLEVELAND IN HOMOSASSA, 44 EAST ACROSS FROM DAN’S CLAM STAND IN CRYSTAL RIVER, AND THE FIREHOUSE IN THE CITY OF CRYSTAL RIVER.
Hillsborough CountyWest Service Unit - 9805 Sheldon Road- Hillsborough County Fire Rescue Station #4 - 11826 Hwy 92
- Hillsborough County Fire Rescue Station #38 - 9755 Sheldon Rd
Every property owner in the City of Tampa is allowed to collect 10 sandbags per storm event from the City at one of the following locations:
Himes Sports Complex - 4500 S. Himes
Jackson Heights Playground - 3310 E. Lake Avenue
Solid Waste - 4010 W. Spruce St.

2042. marsHen
10.3" of rain yesterday and last night in rocky hammock.. not raining now. wondering if I can get to cedar key for work today? they had flooding.
I would compare this to Fay but from my point of view, Fay never had rains this heave and continual.
2044. icmoore
Maybe you can call work or someone else and ask about the roads before you venture out.
Debby is looking a hot mess today. Too much partying for her yesterday. We had a pretty quiet night here in Panama City, just some showers and wind gusts. Some small branches down and some minor flooding so far.
2046. LargoFl
sun is trying to come out here, first time i've seen that in a few days, hope it stays out for awhile...
Live weather footage from Bayshore Ave and Davis Island








BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY STILL STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
ALABAMA-FLORDA BORDER EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
2048. ncstorm
Is that a Category 3 for the 00z Euro??

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY STILL STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

2050. dewfree
am i seeing this correct. Did the out wall just make or bump land @ saint vincent island ???
Quoting ncstorm:
Is that a Category 3 for the 00z Euro??


Looks like a 4 to me...

2052. MahFL
5.2 inches of rain so far from Debby, here in NE FL. A rotted branch fell too, about 3.5 inches in diameter.
Jim " Hulk Hogan" Cantore has his extra tight shirt on. Trying too empress Panama City mayor he actually called her darlin twice. He is still stuck all over himself after all these years.
Conditionsin key west
Pressure29.87 in Visibility10.0 miles CloudsFew 2500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3300 ft

Moisture
Humidity79%Rainfall0.00 in \
METAR
\
Heat Index85 °F Dew Point73 °F
Wind
Speed / Dir18 mph from South Wind Gust33 mph and let me tell you it is def. blowing at 33
This mornings sat pics are not what anybody was expecting to see from Fri and Sat!
I believe that intensity is way over done...
2057. MahFL
Oh oh, a purple pixel near the center of Debbie, shows the shear and or cold water upwelling has eased some.

It's been raining constant here since yesterday afternoon. Not always heavy rain, but continuous. Need to check my rain gauge.
2059. ncstorm
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks like a 4 to me...



well thats comforting..
Quoting msmanatee:
Good morning. I mostly lurk but want to thank Largo for the local commentary yesterday. We're in Sarasota but trying to navigate a route for two Eckerd College students who begin summer term today. With the Skyway Bridge still closed, not quite seeing it yet. :)


Drive around..

*yikes*
Let's see if the storm on sw side of circulation out over the gulf is the start of the refiring of storms
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This mornings sat pics are not what anybody was expecting to see from Fri and Sat!


An ugly asymetric storm stalled out near Florida? That's not far from what I was expecting. She's sure not trying to impress that's for sure.
Now imagine if that did come true..the blog would go into doom mode.Luckily it seems Debbie is making a right hand exit outta here.Bermuda may need to watch out though.
believe it or not I expect some stregthening today,my guess a landfall near crystal river,fl tomorrow morning,70mph TS,notice some moistening and convection on her...sw side forming,sheers relaxing and she's done with her ingestion of dry air forthe moment,expect stregthening and tropical'storm warnings south to venice inlet
2065. ncstorm
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


look at that blowup on the SE coast..
It's interesting that the euro also shows Debbie as a major off the U.S east coast...Is the GFS still showing something off of Africa.
Morning all... looks like Debbie crossed the FL peninsula overnight, at least based on IR....

This is SUCH a weird storm....

Quoting washingtonian115:
It's interesting that the euro also shows Debbie as a major off the U.S east coast...Is the GFS still showing something off of Africa.

Not so much the last few runs... It's been showing East Pac development instead...

Man if Tampa ever gets a well organized hurricane to our north, Bayshore will be wiped out.
Early visible of Debby


Could be another dangerous day for tornados across Florida.
Quoting LargoFl:
gee amazing how bad it was yesterday,cannot believe how many tornado's there were
does anyone know the exact location of the tornado or if it was a water spot hitting land or an actual land-born tornado?
Gonna be a fun day for me! Just heard some thunder, looks like a good thundershower coming in now, line of severe storms in western Mass/CT heading right at me, and an even stronger line expected to form this afternoon/evening!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Could be another dangerous day for tornados across Florida.

I'd say so...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT

* AT 806 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
TALBOT ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
AMELIA CITY...FERNANDINA BEACH...DUNGENESS AND KINGS BAY BASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 8148 3085 8155 3083 8142 3080 8145
3075 8145 3072 8144 3070 8142 3060 8144
3052 8142 3051 8144 3049 8141 3045 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1206Z 181DEG 22KT 3054 8143

$$

SHASHY
Quoting TampaCat5:
Man if Tampa ever gets a well organized hurricane to our north, Bayshore will be wiped out.
The flooding footage of Davis Island...is that the N area of Tampa? If it is, yes, a major storm woud cause PROBLEMS
We are just about to get slaughtered here in Naples, as this new feed of thunderstorms comes in off the gulf. Stay safe everyone!
2078. LargoFl
Quoting TampaCat5:
Man if Tampa ever gets a well organized hurricane to our north, Bayshore will be wiped out.
bayshore wont be the only area for sure..if a hurricane ever comes here..after what i saw yesterday..im on I-75 headed north..far far away believe me...the tornado's and rains we saw here yesterday is what you get FROM a hurricane..now add 125 mph winds to that..poof goes tampa bay,we are just too close to the water, built right up to the coastline,damage would be in the trillions i bet
There were a large number of confirmed tornados yesterday. Local news showed some new tornado footage I hadn't seeen this morning.

Tornado map from yesterday.
Quoting CypressJim08:
We are just about to get slaughtered here in Naples, as this new feed of thunderstorms comes in off the gulf. Stay safe everyone!
We sure are and be safe !
2082. LargoFl
Quoting CypressJim08:
We are just about to get slaughtered here in Naples, as this new feed of thunderstorms comes in off the gulf. Stay safe everyone!
yes it looks like the training effect for these squalls is south of tampa bay now, dont know if it will stay that way today all day long, we will see later on
Quoting AussieStorm:
Live weather footage from Bayshore Ave and Davis Island








BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY STILL STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
ALABAMA-FLORDA BORDER EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
great eye witness video out of Tampa. Thanks for posting!!!
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! did you see the CMC!!!!!
2086. LargoFl
Quoting KeyWestwx:
does anyone know the exact location of the tornado or if it was a water spot hitting land or an actual land-born tornado?
ther one in pass-a-grille they are officially trying to determine that
2087. VR46L
Hard to now if she will make it to the alter or if she will do a runner with the best man or if she will leave the groom waiting for days before she turns up


Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! did you see the CMC!!!!!

You obviously didn't see the Euro :)
A couple of days ago I jokingly refered to the track the GFS was showing at the time as the I-4 track. Now it's back to that same track again. This time it may be no joke.
2090. LargoFl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETG2gXY6rfU&feature= youtube_gdata_player

Just a small example of why everyone needs to keep their eyes to the sky, and weather radios on.
2092. LargoFl
Quoting wakd3Xn04:
A couple of days ago I jokingly refered to the track the GFS was showing at the time as the I-4 track. Now it's back to that same track again. This time it may be no joke.
yeah you could well be right
Quoting LargoFl:
ther one in pass-a-grille they are officially trying to determine that
pass-a-grille? That's a name of a town or a restaurant? ;) i own a vacation rental house in S. Venice near the airport so I was just wondering where that is?
Debby's hanging in there at a mere 40 knots. Will she survive?

AL, 04, 2012062512, , BEST, 0, 286N, 855W, 40, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 175, 160, 80, 90, 1010, 300, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,
not.bad.over.here.on.the.east.coast
2096. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..........at some point these winds will change direction and start coming IN from the gulf baynews9 said, when that happens hope its not at high tide in a day or so
debby gave birth overnight,check out our next invest off Jax!
2098. LargoFl
Quoting KeyWestwx:
pass-a-grille? That's a name of a town or a restaurant? ;) i own a vacation rental house in S. Venice near the airport so I was just wondering where that is?
its a section of town at the bottom of pinellas county around st.pete
I did see the Euro but the CMC Two Time hit for FL!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

You obviously didn't see the Euro :)
2100. LargoFl
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Gonna be a fun day for me! Just heard some thunder, looks like a good thundershower coming in now, line of severe storms in western Mass/CT heading right at me, and an even stronger line expected to form this afternoon/evening!


You know you're a northerner when you say thunder shower hahah
Quoting Stoopid1:


An ugly asymetric storm stalled out near Florida? That's not far from what I was expecting. She's sure not trying to impress that's for sure.


The NHC on Fri and Sat, was expecting to see a strengthening westward moving cyclone under an improving upper-level outflow pattern by Mon morn.
Ya gotta love meteorology!
Good morning everyone,

I see the CMC takes Debby across Florida. Is it the AB high that will bring Debby back to Florida?
Quoting stillwaiting:
debby gave birth overnight,check out our next invest off Jax!



Which one of you "weather weenies" knocked her up?
Just talked to my sister in Winter Haven (Polk Co) Apparently a tornado took out a couple of homes right by Lego Land and her neighborhood was without power all night. It just came back on an hour or so ago.
YES it is!!
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Good morning everyone,

I see the CMC takes Debby across Florida. Is it the AB high that will bring Debby back to Florida?
2107. LargoFl
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The NHC on Fri and Sat, was expecting to see a strengthening westward moving cyclone under an improving upper-level outflow pattern by Mon morn.
Ya gotta love meteorology!
remember folks,its sitting on mid 80's temp water and the conditions just may improve,I am not trusting This storm til its over jacksonville somewhere,its already confused the experts..how many times this week?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The NHC on Fri and Sat, was expecting to see a strengthening westward moving cyclone under an improving upper-level outflow pattern by Mon morn.
Ya gotta love meteorology!
I think more importantly you gott love tropical meteorology
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Which one of you "weather weenies" knocked her up?
Ewwww Taz said something about taking her home the other night.
2110. ncstorm
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I did see the Euro but the CMC Two Time hit for FL!!


I just saw it..gotta love the models..
2111. Patrap
2112. LargoFl
LargoFL wins the "RUSH" award.... Post 2112!
2114. Jax82
Debby gave me a treat this morning around 5am. I heard a loud crash out in my back yard, i look out there and the wind has picked up my large deck umbrella and glass table and slammed it into my pool shattering it into a million pieces. Thanks Debby! Also my fault for not closing my umbrella, but it still took a big gust to pick up a 50 pound umbrella and large table. In addition to that my pool has overflowed from all the rain. Here's the totals so far, radar amounts of 8-12" already widespread. And more on the way. Our drought is over to say the least!



Quoting LargoFl:
bayshore wont be the only area for sure..if a hurricane ever comes here..after what i saw yesterday..im on I-75 headed north..far far away believe me...the tornado's and rains we saw here yesterday is what you get FROM a hurricane..now add 125 mph winds to that..poof goes tampa bay,we are just too close to the water, built right up to the coastline,damage would be in the trillions i bet




If you want some scary reading, take a look at the SLOSH maps for Tampa Bay! If we get hit by just about anything, we are underwater and some places the water will go as far inland as I-75. Anyone who stays is out of their gourd! The wind is one thing, but the power of the water is beyond your imagination. I do disaster work and have worked all types of disasters and storm surge is nothing to mess with. After Ike, we saw huge barges sitting 2 miles inland across the highway. It takes a lot of water to rip them from their moorings and carry them 2 miles!!
I expect Debby to quickly pick up her foward speed verry shortly!
Quoting LargoFl:
remember folks,its sitting on mid 80's temp water and the conditions just may improve,I am not trusting This storm til its over jacksonville somewhere,its already confused the experts..how many times this week?


Water temp has to be lower than that. It's shallow and she's been churning the same spot for over a day.
Good Morning everyone, long time lurker, rarely post but have a question. the convection def separated from the center of the storm leaving her "open". Wouldn't that cause her to weaken and fall apart? Just wondering why the NHC says she's gonna hold together and possibly strengthen? Thanks
2119. ncstorm
I was watching GMA this morning and of course Sam was talking about Debby and he and Joe bastardi got into it a little bit on twitter over the weekend, he basically said "if anyone tells you where Debby is going, they lying! No one knows!!"..

this storm got everyone baffled..
What a big fail by the ECMWF and CMC with Debby. It's nice to see the upgrade with the GFS has seemed to pay off. The GFS has been sniffing out development better than any other models the last year or two and now it seems it might be getting better with track as well.
2122. Patrap
Quoting medic2luv:
Good Morning everyone, long time lurker, rarely post but have a question. the convection def separated from the center of the storm leaving her "open". Wouldn't that cause her to weaken and fall apart? Just wondering why the NHC says she's gonna hold together and possibly strengthen? Thanks


Due to the remaing structure,which is well organized and the Low pressure of 993mb.

dmax failed

looks like consensus is gone again.:


somewhere in that area though
Thanks Patrap!
You know, if debby starts now it can fire center convection just like beryl did.
could be beryl 2
2126. 7544
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Could be another dangerous day for tornados across Florida.


morming all will any of that rain cross over to se fl today tia
Gotta give it to the GFS!.Could the american model be the best one?.We'll see this season.
Good morning, it's a blustery day in the neighborhood over here on NSB barrier island today.
So far, we've had mostly drizzle and some light rain.

Thanks for all of the eye-witness reports from the west coast. Looks like erosion and flooding over there will be significant.

Link ShortWave Loop
Quoting Patrap:


Due to the remaing structure,which is well organized and the Low pressure of 993mb.

I'm seeing 'some' thunderstorms begining to build around the coc now. The SW quad in particular
2130. jpsb
Quoting Jax82:
I heard a loud crash out in my back yard, i look out there and the wind has picked up my large deck umbrella and glass table and slammed it into my pool




You left a large deck umbrella OPEN? lol.
Quoting jpsb:

You left a large deck umbrella OPEN? lol.
too.busy.reloading.the.page?
I expect this to be off the Carolina coast by tommorrow morning.
..IT IS LIKELY THAT A EASTERN PERIPHERAL BELT OF STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF FL...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND EXPECTED MODERATE-STRONG DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL SRH...A DAYTIME BOOST TO INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN UPDRAFT VIGOR AND HENCE LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ITS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD PIVOT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST OF FL DURING THE DAY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.


could be a busy day in fl if a band comes through
2134. Patrap
Quoting 7544:


morming all will any of that rain cross over to se fl today tia


Yes, you could see some strong storms a little later this morning.
Weather models must go with the economies...lol US economy is getting better and Europe economy is getting worse :)
Quoting robert88:
What a big fail by the ECMWF and CMC with Debby. It's nice to see the upgrade with the GFS has seemed to pay off. The GFS has been sniffing out development better than any other models the last year or two and now it seems it might be getting better with track as well.


Love to see an American Product work.
Quoting medic2luv:
Thanks Patrap!


If you look at the shortwave loop I just posted (#2128), you can see Debby is pulling up warm, moist air from the Yucatan/Carribbean area; that will help to keep her supplied with fuel to keep going.

2139. Patrap
Best to READ the last Advisory before making er,a "prediction".

That's a good place to start,always.


Tropical Storm DEBBY Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251143
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY STILL STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
ALABAMA-FLORDA BORDER EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
..IT IS LIKELY THAT A EASTERN PERIPHERAL BELT OF STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF FL...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND EXPECTED MODERATE-STRONG DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL SRH...A DAYTIME BOOST TO INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN UPDRAFT VIGOR AND HENCE LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ITS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD PIVOT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST OF FL DURING THE DAY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.


could be a busy day in fl if a band comes through
One of those bands has arrived in Lee county lots of rain and wind
Quoting jpsb:

You left a large deck umbrella OPEN? lol.


Yeah, I was thinking that myself. I don't even leave mine up as it can be enough for the wind to catch and flip the glass table. Glass and pool areas are a bad mixture. If we're expecting winds of 50 mph or so I actually take and flip my table over and pin it between my brick grill and the fence. Better safe than sorry.
2142. jpsb
Quoting spayandneuter:




If you want some scary reading, take a look at the SLOSH maps for Tampa Bay! If we get hit by just about anything, we are underwater and some places the water will go as far inland as I-75. Anyone who stays is out of their gourd! The wind is one thing, but the power of the water is beyond your imagination. I do disaster work and have worked all types of disasters and storm surge is nothing to mess with. After Ike, we saw huge barges sitting 2 miles inland across the highway. It takes a lot of water to rip them from their moorings and carry them 2 miles!!
I watched one of those barges go by my house during Ike. That was the only time I was really worried, House vrs a 200 ton barge. Not good odds. I did wind up with a bunch of small boats in the yard along with a huge mass of concrete bulkhead material. Plus about 5 feet deep of miscellaneous rift raft.
Good Morning. Drizzing rain here in Tallahassee. If Debby is able to hang on out there for the next several weeks, She can keep us occupied until the start of the Cape Verde season in August.............
2144. Patrap
Esp this part

Tropical Storm DEBBY Public Advisory


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM FROM THE CENTER.
If debby goes east the heat is coming to the SE.
GFS showing temps in the low 100s and up a week out.
ECMWF would be cooler for a bit and then heat up.
GA should escape the brunt of this, but places in al and tn already have 100 in the forecast.
2147. dewfree
19 tornado reports
2 attributed deaths
flooding all over the state
wind reports
tree's down almost every section of state
entire state of Fl
1 death in Alabama { drowning }high surf
These are unofficial reports
2 deaths total so far


this is a small summary of reports i have read or seen Via : NWSChat Local Storm Report App
hwrf now to fl again
2149. 7544
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yes, you could see some strong storms a little later this morning.


thanks
2150. Jax82
Quoting Kristina40:


Yeah, I was thinking that myself. I don't even leave mine up as it can be enough for the wind to catch and flip the glass table. Glass and pool areas are a bad mixture. If we're expecting winds of 50 mph or so I actually take and flip my table over and pin it between my brick grill and the fence. Better safe than sorry.


Yes unfortunately my head was in other places yesterday as i forgot to close the umbrella, lol. It was a steady rain all afternoon and hardly any wind, it was early this morning when it really started getting bad and it was too late by then. Mind you the glass table was a good 10 feet from the pool, i never imagined it making it in there! Live and learn, i wont be swimming for few days to say the least.
2151. ncstorm
Debby might break a record if she sticks around--below are the days of the previous record holders (first column is days)

28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam‡ October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia‡ September 1971
2152. dewfree
100 degree heat in mucle Shoals Al yesterday
Severe T Storm warning for Charlotte County.
Quoting ncstorm:
Debby might break a record if she sticks around--below are the days of the previous record holders (first column is days)

28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam‡ October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia‡ September 1971
Oh god know.Debbie just needs to die already and get the hell out of here.
the cmc isnt taking this across florida strengthening and coming bak is it?
i was a post on an earlier page that showed that but that is impossible(almost,quantum physics)

ecmwf and cmc seem to deepen this when it is barely across fl
maybe a little backlash at jax?
and cape hatteras needs to be careful.
and canada

gfs weakens before landfall
Quoting ncstorm:
Debby might break a record if she sticks around--below are the days of the previous record holders (first column is days)

28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam%u2021 October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia%u2021 September 1971

hurricane ginger....wasn't that the one that produced snow instead of rain or was it another hurricane..?
BTW good morning everyone..
2158. Asrock
So question for the experts, if you look at the south east radar loop just north of the FL/GA line of the east coast. Is that spin I see? Could another storm spin up there separate from Debbie? Or could Debbie's COC suddenly relocate to the new spin? Just asking, I am but a lurker with limited knowledge, I live in SC and another close brush with a TS will just about clear up our drought. I know Beryl did some funky and unussual things and Debbies has as well so far.
Quoting ncstorm:
Debby might break a record if she sticks around--below are the days of the previous record holders (first column is days)

28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam‡ October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia‡ September 1971


That San Ciriaco killed over 3.000 people here in Puerto Rico.
2160. dewfree
Like the photo
2161. Patrap


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.

Quoting Articuno:

hurricane ginger....wasn't that the one that produced snow instead of rain or was it another hurricane..?
NTW good morning everyone..


nah, this was ginger:


sep6-oct3 1971
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
the cmc isnt taking this across florida strengthening and coming bak is it?
i was a post on an earlier page that showed that but that is impossible(almost,quantum physics)

ecmwf and cmc seem to deepen this when it is barely across fl


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.
2164. Brock31
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nah, this was ginger:


sep6-oct3 1971


Now that's a storm track!

Must have gotten picked up by a trough, then the trough somehow out-raced it, and then the High sent it back to the west....Amazing track there.
Quoting Brock31:
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.
No that wouldn't.Just imagine all the beach erosion and rip currents.Those waves would be a killer.Debbie must DIE.
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.


ok,
what i meant to say was that it is impossible in this situation for this to come back south to fl.

It is possible, just not this time
That Bayshore Blvd footage is taken right at the foot of the bridge over to Davis Island... At the top of Hillsborough Bay. I note the hospital is right there, at the northern tip of Davis Island as they get off the bridge. If a TS could do this, I really don't want to think about impacts from even a cat 3.

2169. Patrap
Quoting Brock31:
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.


Nah, it needs to come to Northern Georgia for 2 or 3 days....we could use some rain, been dry lately. Would be a disaster of the east coast if it's there for a week...
2171. Brock31
Quoting washingtonian115:
Those waves would be a killer..


Exactly..
Any chances Louisiana will get anything from Debby?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nah, this was ginger:


sep6-oct3 1971

Just looked it up, it was Ginny.

Noel also produced snowfall in Maine.
It wont make landfall in till friday night...

Quoting Brock31:
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.


Well, the Euro has it hang out there too for about 4 days, and then start on a nor'easter track as probably a major hurricane just off the Atlantic coast, so you're looking at New England or Nova Scotia for a hurricane or well developed TS or STS...

East Coast SST anomalies...yeah...




And look at the core of the MDR from 43W onwards, where it really matters....above normal and in pockets above 1C above normal...man...

We got a cape verde wave forecast to be moving through there in a week...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
dmax failed

looks like consensus is gone again.:


somewhere in that area though


The track across fl was always the solution of the GFS model, so that track would not surprise me at all. It (GFS) performed exactly as advertised over the past 300 hours or so.
Severe T. Storm warning for Collier county for the approaching squall line.
2178. 7544
anyone think the cone will shift to the east latter on today after seeing the new model runs taking debbie to ene tia
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.


Ivan still has one of the most amusing NHC discussions I have ever seen.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

2180. rxse7en
We got about 8 inches of rain in Jax last night. This was worse than the direct hit from Beryl for us. Had a couple of leaks, pool overflowed, and a section of fence is down. I'll be busy this morning while Debby looks to be rewrapping thunderstorms.
2181. jpsb
Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, the Euro has it hang out there too for about 4 days, and then start on a nor'easter track as probably a major hurricane just off the Atlantic coast, so you're looking at New England or Nova Scotia for a hurricane or well developed TS or STS...
Debby does EVERYWHERE ( but Dallas ).
Quoting SaintPatrick:
Any chances Louisiana will get anything from Debby?

If you haven't got any thing now, you probably won't get anything else, it matters on the intensity and the track of the storm in the next few days.
2183. Brock31
Thats the problem with a storm named Debby...She's problably just going to do whatever she wants to do.

Best thing for all of us would be just to sit back and let her do her thing. Struggling will only make it worse.
Quoting rxse7en:
We got about 8 inches of rain in Jax last night. This was worse than the direct hit from Beryl for us. Had a couple of leaks, pool overflowed, and a section of fence is down. I'll be busy this morning while Debby looks to be rewrapping thunderstorms.



I really am convinced this would have been a terribly powerful storm if not for that ULL destroying it so much back before it was even classified. The fact that it started one-sided and stayed one-sided, instead of filling in the whole monsoon trough with convection, has really made the difference in preventing catastrophe.
Quoting Brock31:
Thats the problem with a storm named Debby...She's problably just going to do whatever she wants to do.

Best thing for all of us would be just to sit back and let her do her thing. Struggling will only make it worse.

Good luck.
I don't think Debby is dead yet...

Quoting RTSplayer:



I really am convinced this would have been a terribly powerful storm if not for that ULL destroying it so much back before it was even classified. The fact that it started one-sided and stayed one-sided, instead of filling in the whole monsoon trough with convection, has really made the difference in preventing catastrophe.

That ULL is a hero (not to Debby)
Quoting 7544:
anyone think the cone will shift to the east latter on today after seeing the new model runs taking debbie to ene tia



Maybe.


Quoting Patrap:


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.





wow. If that gets it's own LLC, the GFS is going to be the new king, regardless of what happens to Debbie.


It called the split the whole time, which the split itself wasn't that controversial, but the fact it took the "child" to 999mb seemed ridiculous. I guess we're about to see something really rare if it verifies.

I don't think I've ever seen a successful "split" get named, certainly not at the same time the parent was alive...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting RTSplayer:




wow. If that gets it's own LLC, the GFS is going to be the new king, regardless of what happens to Debbie.


It called the split the whole time, which the split itself wasn't that controversial, but the fact it took the "child" to 999mb seemed ridiculous. I guess we're about to see something really rare if it verifies.

I don't think I've ever seen a successful "split" get named, certainly not at the same time the parent was alive...


gfs no longer develops the split
by HH debby has moved east, up to 995mb
Any idea what caused the feeder bands to push inland to the East last night and today? It sure has given the coast here near Tampa Bay a bit of a break...
Anyone else find it very strange the similarities of Debby to Chris. When Chris was first trying to get going its structure was nearly identical to that of Debby's Currently. Chris was attached to that front for quite some time before he finally shook it off then began to intensify from just a low level swirl to gradually building convection around his center. Debby has had a monsoonal trough attached to her her entire life cycle. It will be interesting to see how Debby behaves the rest of the way.

Debby


Chris
2197. Jax82
Quoting rxse7en:
We got about 8 inches of rain in Jax last night. This was worse than the direct hit from Beryl for us. Had a couple of leaks, pool overflowed, and a section of fence is down. I'll be busy this morning while Debby looks to be rewrapping thunderstorms.


It just never stopped raining from about 2pm yesterday and until just now this morning. Definately more rain than Beryl. Looks like we'll get more today.
Man it really is starting to look like a new LLC is starting to form east of Florida. Could this become the new relocated Debbie?
2199. rxse7en
Quoting RTSplayer:



I really am convinced this would have been a terribly powerful storm if not for that ULL destroying it so much back before it was even classified. The fact that it started one-sided and stayed one-sided, instead of filling in the whole monsoon trough with convection, has really made the difference in preventing catastrophe.
It would have been a monster. I'll be surprised if it doesn't gain some of that strength back sitting in the Gulf for 5-6 days.
2200. rxse7en
Quoting Patrap:


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.

That looks like the GFS solution from last week.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
It wont make landfall in till friday night...



That just defies the laws of physics.
2202. RickWPB
Quoting Patrap:


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.

Pat's post showing the radar of N Fl with a spinning storm east of Jacksonville, reminds me of what the GFS was forecasting days ago. So much for being the 'outlier'.

sent from iPad
Debbie, thanks a bunch. I go for a nice long weekend of camping/kayaking on GA coast only to cut it short because of your wandering ways.

Late sunday we saw impressive clouds streaming in from S and then had tent deforming wind gusts over the top of a steady sea breaze and light rain. Get a bar on the phone to check weather only to find Debbie shifted tracks and she's no longer interested in visiting Louisiana. Oh and she's bulked up a bit to so what we're seeing looks suspiciously like a far rain band and not just an isolated rain shower.. Plus more behind it.

Consensus was reached in 10 minutes, time to pack up and head back to mainland. If she's so unpredictable that he pros are surprised; we don't want any of our own during the night high tide or morning paddle back. Sit on tops loaded with gear, novice and tired paddlers and potentially choppy/white cap surf plus rain would not be a good mix.

I still feel like we overreacted but i know it was a sensible choice. Rader shows we would have been soaked for most of the night. Surf reports show the paddle back would have been a decent workout.

Point being, keep an eye on the weather during storm season, no matter where you are on the coast. Frankly, it's better to be safe and feel silly ;) than ending up as one of "those" tourists that needs to be rescued because they ignored all warning signs till they had nochoice left.
Quoting morrisfl:
Any idea what caused the feeder bands to push inland to the East last night and today? It sure has given the coast here near Tampa Bay a bit of a break...


Shear. There arent any new bands because of dry air, but it looks like she's starting something on her south side. That will rotate into the panhandle eventually.