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Should-have-been-Tammy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:02 PM GMT on April 14, 2006

Well, we need to re-write the record books--again--for the amazing Hurricane Season of 2005. The season added another named storm to its near-unassailable record for number of named storms, which now stands at 28. NHC announced this week that previously unrecognized subtropical storm formed over the Atlantic near the Azores Islands on October 4, 2005. In the National Hurricane Center's report on the unnamed storm, the authors comment that on rare occasions, routine post-season review reveals the existence of tropical or subtropical storms that should have been given a name. The last time this happened was for 1997's first storm. In the case of the unnamed 2005 storm (which I'll call Should-have-been-Tammy, since that was the next name on the list when it formed), the storm started off as a non-tropical low pressure system. However, on October 4, microwave satellite data from the AMSU instrument on NOAA's polar-orbiting satellite revealed the presence of a warm core in the storm . Additionally, when Should-have-been-Tammy passed through the Azores Islands on Ocotber 5, no change of temperature was noted, as would have been the case if this storm was extratropical in nature. Extratropical storms derive their energy from temperature differences within them, and one should always see some sort of frontal passage and temperature change when these non-tropical storm pass by. Should-have-been-Tammy was not fully tropical, though, since its warm core did not extend all the way to the top of the lower atmosphere, and there was no upper-level anticyclone on top of the system. Thus, Should-have-been-Tammy will forever be called "Unnamed subtropical storm 4-5 October 2005."


Figure 1. METEOSAT-8 visible image of Should-have-been-Tammy taken at 15 UTC October 4, 2005. Surface observations are overlaid on the satellite image, and a cold front is analyzed to the west.

The existence of Should-have-been-Tammy raises an interesting point--if the storm had been correctly identified at the time and given a name, Hurricane Wilma would have been given the name Hurricane Alpha. This would have raised the question of what to do about replacing the name Alpha in the list of Greek names, since Alpha would have had to be retired. I've heard rumor that the list of Greek names is going to be ditched in favor of an alternate naming system, but I haven't heard anything official on this yet.

Severe weather outbreak today and Saturday
After a one-week break, severe weather returned to the central U.S. again last night, when tornadoes struck Iowa, killing one, and causing extensive damage to the University of Iowa campus. The Storm Prediction Center has put Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Iowa in its "Moderate Risk" bullseye for today, and western Iowa and eastern Nebraska on Saturday.

Next week: I'll comment on the Wall Street Journal opinion piece by noted MIT atmospheric scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen accusing climate scientists of alarmism intended to generate research funding.

Jeff Masters
A Hail of a Night
A Hail of a Night
This came crashing through the skylight in our kitchen. It broke when it hit the floor. It was bigger than a golf ball.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think the Greek system is overdue for ditching. It has all the hallmarks of a contingency plan nobody seriously thought they were going to use. Why not start over with A, and why not use Q, U, X, Y, AND Z? It isn't as impossible as they make it out to be.
Good morning Dr. Masters.

Interesting blog topic!
Are we to understand that all warm-core systems are eligible for inclusion in the naming system? Do warm-core nor'easter blizzards get names now?
how come they could not call it the E storm # 3 that was the next name
It would have been out of sequence I guess.
A 1008 mb sfc low has been meandering
N of Hispaniola over the past couple of days but now as begun to
move neward located near 21n68w. This low sits on a cold front
which extends from a 1006 mb low near 37n52w and enters the area

any news on are 1006mb and on are 1008mb lows out there could they pop up to some in any one?
I guess we could have a Q storm, but if we retired Quinn/Quinton we would be outta luck...same with X and Xavier.
the news is: there is no tropical development likely for the next several weeks, but active weather continues in the continental US
Why not name storms only if they make landfall. Records mean nothing with today's technology. After all, we are now looking for storms many months later that no one ever knew about when it existed. Sounds like these "records" need an asterisk placed after them. Weather reporting has become more like the show "Fear Factor". After all, who is going to ever say, "This should be a good year with few hurricanes?"
Looking at tomorrow, seems the SPC has the bulls eye a bit north of us in KC, and based on everything else this year, I would guess it will go north of us. But...looking at the GFS 12Z 500 vort I see what looks like some energy quite negatively tilted near KC...also, looking at the dewpoint projections..they seem to be rather high. I don't see this as a rainmaker, but more as another meso type situation with a bow later in the night maybe east and north of us. Also looking at the soundings for Topeka, seems the cap is well established..wonder if we can break it...this season has shown that cap to be rather stubborn...

We shall see...
Alpha2006 then this Alpha for this year
I am not liking the hail forecast for today.


The hatched area is where there is a 10%, or greater possibility of hail 2 inches in diameter, or more. As it turns out, I happen to live within the hatched area.
I had a 60% chance of hail on April 2; this was the first time that I ever saw a 60% risk area for any kind of severe weather in my area or anywhere else.
On April 7, I believe that they had a 60% chance for tornadoes for South Central portions of Tennessee, North Eastern portions of Mississippi, and North Western portions of Alabama.
is it just me, or has there been a bit of late season activity in the southern indian ocean?
Yes, it is a good thing that there actually wern't that many tornadoes; if there had been, there would have been like 100 tornadoes or more in the 60% area.
sayhuh-i'm hoping KC gets some decent rain from warm frontal passage on saturday morning. i think saturday evening will be a lot of wind and no rain.
If that had been the case (Wilma was Alpha) and Alpha had to have been retired, the 22nd named storm for this season (if, God forbid, we get that far again) would be Beta, not Alpha. The Greek letter retired would be permanently skipped over. http://www.sun-herald.com/NewsArchive2/041306/tp4ch9.htm?date=041306&story=tp4ch9.htm
19. TBA
I think we have enought Z names to add Z to the list of named storms.

One of my favorite is Zeus.

However naming a Huricane after the God of Lightning and Thunder might be a dangerous idea :)
And what would happen if we ran out of Greek lettere due to retirement?
rwdobson, I can see potential for some rain in the morning in the 12Z NAM, but not sure how that will materialize with our luck this year with it just missing.
so did they retire Alpha??? so if they did what dos this mean for the Wilma???
No, they did not retire Alpha. Because Storm #19 was not acknowledged at the time of it's existence, it was not named. Therefore, it is Wilma that is regarded as having become the most intense Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, and causing 16-20 billion dollars in damage. Had Storm #19 been named, then it would have been Alpha which would have had that distinction. This would have forced them to retire the name Alpha.
i feel better about the morning rain as it is associated with a northward moving warm front...the dryline/cold front storms have all petered out so I'm holding on to hope with the warm front.
Another very interesting topic. Thanks!

We could surely start using Q , U, X, Y , Z,

There are several names for each of these letters that could be used.

Just think about it;
especially Y & Z -lots of names using those letters.
I agree that some of the letters they leave out could be used. The biggest problem is that you have to be able to have both male and female names, plus you have to have backup names for those letters in case one of those names is retired.
28. MZT
Q and Z are uncommon beginning letters in the English language, but not so uncommon in others. We'd end up geting a lot of Indian named storms using Q's.

I think within a decade we probably will see the Atlantic naming system become continuous like in the Pacific.
This is really splitting hairs. Why is it necessary to spend the time and money classifying something that had no important effect on anything?
My temperature just tied the record high for today (87); it may still rise:

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Apr 14, 1:51 pm CDT

Mostly Cloudy

Temperature: 87F (31C)
Humidity: 40 %
Wind Speed: SW 20 G 23 MPH
Barometer: 29.69" (1004.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 60F (16C)
Heat Index: 87F (31C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
WOW MichaelSTL! That's unbelievable!
It is already 90 degrees at the airport in dowtown St. Louis.
That is really hot. It is 72 degrees here with a forecast high of 81. I am not going to count on it making it to 81 due to having overcast skies, and also the rain will be moving in pretty soon.
It is not even going to make it into the 80's here in SE Florida.

Observed At: Hill Observatory, Lauderhill, Florida
Elevation: 10 ft / 3 m

77.4 F / 25.2 C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 53%
Dew Point: 59 F / 15 C
Wind: 6 mph / 9 km/h from the East

Wind Gust: 11.0 mph / 17.7 km/h
Pressure: 29.99 in / 1015.5 hPa
Heat Index: 79 F / 26 C

Link

Another straw in the wind......
Temperatures are approaching the monthly record (93 degrees):

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Apr 14, 3:51 pm CDT

Partly Cloudy and Breezy

Temperature: 92F
(33C) Humidity: 31 %
Wind Speed: W 22 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.62" (1001.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 57F (14C)
Heat Index: 91F (33C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
I am surprised that the April record for St. Louis is only 93, since Central Park has been 96 in April, Providence RI 99, and Boston 94. But it is true.
Indianapolis might be getting golfball size hail or larger right now.
Indianapolis got quite a hailstorm.

2302 200 INDIANAPOLIS MARION IN 3978 8615 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT 71ST AND GEORGETOWN (IND)
The storms to the East of Indianapolis are getting really bad.
talking about t-storm are t-storm are geting bad as well this look at this


Link


are highs in the 70s and dew point in the high 50
The Philippines solution for storm names here.

Notice that they did leave out X, and notice the auxilliary name list below.

Personally, if have have some exotic sounding Q, U, Y, and Z names, then so be it. It's (hopefully) not like we'll have the kind of activity we had in 2005 every year.

I think it would be ideal to loose the Greek Alphabet, and just choose alternate names.

My 2 cents.
Right now there are 3 tornado signatures for storms in Indiana, and hail possibly up to 3 inches in diameter.
Maximum hail size for 1 storm now up to 4 inches in diameter.
Within an hour and a half I may have to take shelter. There is a storm with a possible tornado, and very large hail that appears to be coming straight at me.
Oops. I clicked "Copyright" instead of "Top of Page" on Dr. Masters' post. ^_^; I hope that it doesn't screw anything up for the admins. Sorry about that. -_-;

Now to the relevant information part of my post:

KCRG News has information and pictures on the damage in Iowa from last night's storms.

louastu where are you at
Plainfield Indiana
It appears that the storm that looked to be heading straight for me is going to pass to my North. This could be bad news for areas such as Brownsburg, and if it stays on it's current path Downtown Indianapolis could take a direct hit.

Earlier spotter reports said that a tornado was on the ground, though the most recent report indicates that it has lifted, though it still has a very good possibility of putting down another tornado.
Softball size hail has been reported in Indiana (425 = 4.25"):

0101 425 ROCHESTER FULTON IN 4106 8620 (IWX)
Indianapolis is going to get hit by a potentially tornadic storm soon:



They are under a tornado warning until 10:30 PM EDT.
Fortunately for me, it appears that I will not get hit by the worst part of this storm.

The latest spotter report indicates that the tornado IS back on the ground.
Looking like a new storm may be coming at me.
Indianapolis International Airport could be in for a direct hit.
Looks like it is starting to transition to more of a wind event than a tornado event. I would not be surprised to see wind gusts in excess of 100 mph (local news station is saying that 80-90 mph wind gusts are possible). In addition to the strong winds, there is still the possibility of very large hail.
0202 86 INDIANAPOLIS MARION IN 3978 8615 ASOS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 86MPH (IND)
louastu you be sfay and i this her of a 86 mph winds look out and is it rianing hard where you are at and how is the lighting show
Fortunately, it seems it is over for us. I got off with just some heavy rain for about 5 minutes, and sattelite disruptions.

The lightning show was incredible for over an hour as the storms were aproaching, but that has died down a bit now that I am on the back side of the storms.
That 86 mph wind gust was in Indianapolis, which is about 20 miles to my East. We didn't get anything more than 30 mph gusts in Plainfield.
The warnings are talking about hurricane force winds now.
It appears the entire town of Shelbyville in Shelby County could be hit with hail as large as 1.75 inches in diameter
Well, I had to close my windows due to the storms moving in. I have no AC in my room, and I would say it is around 80 degrees in my room now. I'd say that it is time to open the windows again.
Wow! It's called Weather, Mother Nature, God. We have no control. We CANNOT predict it nor can the good "doctor". We cannot change it. Live with it!
IvanVeteran's post is in bold print. I am assuming this comment was directed at me, as I see no other possible reason for this rediculous outburst.

Wow! It's called Weather, Mother Nature, God.

I am sorry you don't share my excitement when it comes to weather, but that is no reason to go off like that.

We have no control.

I agree that we are not in control, and I am puzzled as to what was said to give you the idea that anyone thought they had control.

We CANNOT predict it

I am assuming that when you say "we" you are referring to humans in general. Based on that assumption I would say that to some extent you are correct, though I do believe that "we" are capable of predicting what the weather will be like in general for a specific area up to a few days in advance.

nor can the good "doctor".

I am once again going to make an assumption. I am going to assume that when you say "good doctor" that you are referring to Dr. Masters, and if this is the case, I have never seen him make any predictions of his own (it should be noted that I have not been coming to this site for very long).

We cannot change it.

I never suggested trying to modify the weather. So, I really don't know where that came from.

Live with it!

I have no problems with living with the weather. In fact, I enjoy living with the weather, and I am completely clueless as to why you would think otherwise.


Check it out - 1997's storm report refers to it as 'Unnumbered' not 'Unnamed'.
By the way, a record high was not the only record set yesterday - a record high low was also set:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
0230 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ST. LOUIS...
...RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ST. LOUIS...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBIA...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT QUINCY...


A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT ST. LOUIS
YESTERDAY...APRIL 14. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 2003.

A RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 71 WAS SET AT ST. LOUIS
YESTERDAY...APRIL 14. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1883.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT COLUMBIA
YESTERDAY...APRIL 14. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 1936.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86 DEGREES WAS SET AT QUINCY
YESTERDAY...APRIL 14. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1936.
A 'record high low'...heh.
One way to realize the significane of yesterday's temperatures is the fact that the average high/low temperature during the hottest days in July for St. Louis is 90/71, meaning that it was hotter yesterday than it normally is during the hottest days of the year.
Does anybody think that we will see a new tornado record set this year (the record is 1,819 set in 2004)?


(click to see full size image)
I would say it is highly likely.
72. MZT
By that graph, it's the first week of May when things should really start popping. April was just a sucker punch!
It wasn't just April - there were 226 tornadoes in March (more than this month so far).
Hey Louastu! Great retort dude, but totally unnecessary. There are some good minds contributing here. Those are the only ones you should be concerned with in viewing commentary.
Let all the other stuff just drift into cyberspace!
I think that we will see a new tornado record this year. This weather pattern is supposed to last all summer so there is a good chance.
I wonder how this current weather pattern will affect hurricanes.
Anybody see Cantori on Storm Stories (Okay, I admit I watch the Weather Channel) the other night about the 'Atlantic Conveyor' and how it is affected by global warming? Very interesting and educating for a weather novice such as myself.
PLEASE READ!

Hey everyone,

God has laid it upon my heart to start a fund to help Atmos (Rich ) and his family help with all the expenses they will incurr as a result of Atmos' brothers illness (Diabetes).

I humbly ask with a sincere heart that anyone and everyone who can, to please consider making a pledge of any amount, even if it's simply one dollar, for it can quickly add up.

I also ask that people, please put aside their dislike for me and remember it is about and for Atmos and his family.

Thanks,
Tony
You watch the weather channel?

KILL THE HERETIC! (evil grin)
Scroll down to 'Carbon Dioxide Emission Control Authority':

Link
hey Michael..where do you get that graphic?
I got the tornado statistics graph from the Storm Prediction Center; you can find it under the news headlines where it says "Monitor the number of tornadoes during the year compare to normal and other years at"; there is also a table that shows monthly stats for tornadoes, tornado deaths and killer tornadoes (which has details on each one, such as deaths, strength, and location). Here is the page
I guess I'll take the drought here in Tallahassee over the tornadoes up north. Hopefully we'll avoid any hurricanes again this year also.
Is the wrap around or cyclonic nature of these continental storm systems a new phenomenon or have they always developed this way from time to time?
need up in my blog so if any one like to pop on in and say hi or see if any one of you can hlep me out a little bit i would like that you will find more in my blog
that sloud be help not up
need help in my blog so if any one like to pop on in and say hi or see if any one of you can hlep me out a little bit i would like that you will find more in my blog
Franck,

I'm not a Met or anything, but I would think any strong storm will wrap around the center like you're seeing.
Franck, these storms are lows just like any other, they just get their energy differently. So, yes, the curvature is normal.
The westerlies are breaking, the hurricanes shall cometh soon: Sear Analysis
I see areas in the Gulf and southwestern Caribbean with 5 kts or less of shear...
Yes, but there is very little moisture.
The jet is forecast to strengthen again for 2 weeks and high shear will move in again. But within a month I think we will see our first TD!
Happy Easter Everyone GOD Bless You all
Forecaster Colby might like this story ;-)

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/04/15/reporters.arrested.ap/index.html?section=cnn_topstories

Or the text here

McMINNVILLE, Tennessee (AP) -- Three members of a video team for The Weather Channel have been charged with trespassing for allegedly refusing to leave the property of a Warren County, Tennessee, woman who was killed by a tornado.

Edward John Lazano Jr., Bradley Reynolds and Jorma Brandon Duran were freed on $500 bail each after their arrests Wednesday, The Southern Standard reported. Calls seeking comment Saturday from the Warren County sheriff's office were not immediately returned.

They allegedly were videotaping on the property of Sherry Bruce, who was killed when storms struck the area on April 7.

"There are eight no trespassing signs posted on the property," Bruce's brother-in-law, Lynn Boren, wrote in warrants filed against the video team. "They were asked at least six times over 30 minutes to leave."

Sheriff Jackie Matheny denied reports that he gave them permission to be on the property.

"If they say they were given permission by me, they are telling a big one. Plus I'd have no authority to tell them that since it's private property," Matheny said.

There was no response to calls seeking comment Friday from Weather Channel spokeswoman Kathleen Lane.

"While we cannot comment on legal proceedings, we are upset and saddened this family suffered the loss of one of its members," she told the Southern Standard on Thursday.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
oh thats a good joke
It's not a joke, David. That's some priceless stuff right there, though.
Michalp, there's nothing wrong with NoName, though he could be a bit less antagonistic *pokes*
Three members of a video team for The Weather Channel have been charged with trespassing for allegedly refusing to leave the property of a Warren County, Tennessee,

you mean to tell me they did that?


i hop it not jim cantore
They give the names of the arrested people in the article.
Chaser??? I think you mean cyclonebuster.
Anyone have any input on the intesity of the storms approaching Norther Indiana? I have a friend in KC that watched a tornado rumble by his house last night.
seem to have a problem with my N's today lol
Aren't those Weather Channel guys relatively new? Bad way to start a broadcast career on national cable. If a Tennesse Bruce tells you to leave them alone, better do it. I'm surprised they weren't laced with buckshot.
To those posting entries containing obscenities: Please don't. You can make your point perfectly well without doing this. :-)
lol I know I am surprised they didnt get gunned eather,that is redneck material,lol I have been called a redneck before but I am just an outdoorsman not a redneck lol.I know Jorma Duran is new,but that doesn't have to do with it really they were just paranoid rednecks.
I tell you what though it is a vicious year for sever weather in the plains wonder if it will be down here in florida when our season hits.
I think because the weather channel is makin big bucks these days they may have not really noticed much about the private property signs,I am sure it aint the first time they have reported in these areas,so I sure it was kind of a surprise to them.
yes I mean cyclonebuster, not chaser, Where is cyclonebuster anyway.

We all know if his tunnels got built hail would never be that big . . . ducks.
I put a tornado poll on my blog - guess how many tornadoes there will be this year (uses the SPC's graph to compare this year to previous years; also, the record is 1,819 in 2004).
Jed I will tell you one thing, HUMMMMMM seems alot like the spring of 04 doesn't it. Minus the drought inflicted by the lack of rain this winter. I have this strange sense when things are TOO nice for to long something is wrong.
Since they lacked buckshot, maybe they had permission from Sherry Bruce. TWC isn't solisitors or poachers so i'd of made an exception.

South of New Orleans, a Fight for Land

Federal officials announced Wednesday that they intend to protect all of hurricane-swamped southeastern Louisiana except, perhaps, a strip of land south of New Orleans known as lower Plaquemines Parish

Hurricane victims still vulnerable

5 hurricane drills planned for coast
In a clear reference to the massive Houston-area traffic jam that developed during the Hurricane Rita evacuation last year, Chertoff drew applause when he said his department also will insist that oil companies and gasoline retailers equip stations with generators that will allow them to pump gasoline during evacuations and after storms. From my experience the #1 problem of getting gas is lack of it. As far as the drills, the anouncement (a few weeks ago) of there will be no superdome type place to go (in NO), is bothersome. Seems to be the source of the sudden plans to evacuate everyone far away. Road would be clogged with FEMA trailers. Fl is getting down... go 10's of miles, not 100's, away from the surge & hide from the wind. I couldn't imagine if the local shelters here were closed.

Racing to get ready for storm season

Last year's record 27 named storms exhausted the alphabetical list, forcing forecasters, for the first time, to use the Greek alphabet. Ya'll feel free to E-mail the auther about the typo:O



polls are up in my blog for 2006
I have added another poll on my blog - how many F5 tornadoes will there be this year (none since 1999)?
I've watched this facinating site on Extremely High Horizon Refraction for a few years now. He has been nailing his seasonal forecasts. Well, his spring forcast is out once again~

Globally the summer of 2006 will be more than slightly warmer than the summer of 2005, however North America should be much warmer than the Northern Hemisphere average temperature. At this time there are 158 differential refraction 2006 shots of the greater Resolute Bay atmosphere bearing 110 to 280 degrees Azimuth, all together not representing April and May as with preceding years data. Despite this, 44% of 80 decimal levels were on average or greater than individual years from 2002-2006 inclusive, a very strong warming signal. The easy comparison to do is with 2005, the warmest year in history for the Northern Hemisphere. Comparing 2006 with 2005 makes sense. 2006 beats 2005 by a score of 44% to 26%, considering differential refraction numbers as being meaningless, or just random results, would mean that all winter/springs from 2002-2006 would have values hovering around 20%. This was not so, 70% of the biggest sun disks averages were measured between 2005-06, leaving 2002-04 with a showing of 30%, this in itself is a powerful sign of a hot summer to come. WD april 7, 2006

Globally the summer of 2006 will be more than slightly warmer than the summer of 2005, however North America should be much warmer than the Northern Hemisphere average temperature.

Uh-oh... if that is true, I can expect many more 100+ days (3 last year) as well as a few 110 degree days (there have already been record highs in January, March and April). 110 degrees with a 70 degree dew point means a heat index of 120 degrees and 80 degree dew point means 134 degrees. YUCK!
Tropical Cyclone Monica wehave a new Tropical Cyclone
"110 degrees with a 70 degree dew point means a heat index of 120 degrees and 80 degree dew point means 134 degrees. YUCK!"

lucikly, it generally doesn't get to 110 with a 70 dewpoint, and certainly not with an 80 dewpoint. dewpoints in the 70s usually keep the temps at or below 100.
It seems there's hardly an iota of concern being expressed here for sticking to the post topic.