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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Shear rules!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on July 15, 2006

It's another quiet weekend for the tropical Atlantic. A storm brewing off the coast of North Carolina is extratropical, and will move northeastward out to sea. An area of showers pushing ashore into Nicaragua and Honduras is associated with a tropical wave. Wind shear is high, and no development is expected. Wind shear is a very high 20 - 40 knots across the entire Caribbean, and most of the Gulf of Mexico. Shear is expected to stay high in these regions for at least the next five days, according to the GFS model. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during the next six days. Shear rules!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you, #1.
I'll be up at sunset to see my beloved Atlantic tomorrow and I'll wave to the wave.
Ooops--meant to say sunrise.
503. code1
Nite Rays and huri. I will do the same with my beloved gulf huri!
Speaking of sunrise, hello Sunrise!
If the shear was lower, it may have a chance. Its in a good spot, except for the shear. Sometimes alot of these form in this same spot and slide S or SW. Would be alittle concerned about that, but right now, none of the models are showing that.
506. code1
Welcome Sunrise, I wish you no storms this year.
yep, I noted them all taking it NE eventually. I have not seen the 18z gfs, does it still form it?

On hazard insurance. Mine is right about 2200 bucks, plus standard flood (289 I believe). I think homeowners have a choice between 2%, 5% and 10% deductibles (based on value insuranced). It has been speculated that this is so the homeowner basically pays for the most common windstorm damage claimed (roof replacement) out of pocket.

Minimum deductible is 2%, which left my own at around $4500 of the $15000 in damage.

Incidentally, I haven't seen the roofers in a month. Contract signed in Janury, work started in late April. Right now most companies are scrambling to tarp/waterproof all the houses they haven't started work on yet, leaving the rest of us waiting for completion. Fine by me. Every rainstorm seems to bring another roof collapse or building condemnation.
Some models, like the GFS, have it becoming warm-core for a short time, but there may not be enough time for it to develop.
jphurricane2006: Yeah I remember seeing a lot of that. I live in the Casselberry area. I remember being at the Florida Mall and they had announced that the mall would be closing. At that time I heard of the hurricane, but a lot of us blew it off since there wasn't one that hit us directly in so long. I was still confused, but now those test warnings they would have on the radio were not tests. I ended up in traffic on Orange Blossom Trail. It was near gridlock. 30 minute ride took maybe a little over an hour. When I got home the outer bands had rolled through with occasional gusts, but it was still sunny. I had my camera out. I was in some forum laughing about the whole thing and saying how weak Charley was... well I haven't laughed at a Hurricane since. When the center of the storm went over this area. I was terrified because the house was shaking. I was waiting for the roof to come off because it was making noises like a creaking door and the gusts were brutal. Then the power went out after I heard an explosion outside. We have all kinds of trees outside, including an old oak tree. So I was worried about a lot of things. We didn't get electricity for a week after that. When I was sitting on the bathroom floor with my radio. I was listening to how the center was over seminole county and it was now over Sanford. It just freaked me out and I wanted it to be over. If you weren't religious. You'd probably were at that moment. The news was too close to home.

I am no newbie to tropical weather. I lived on Okinawa, Japan for 4 years when my dad was in the military. I had my share of Super Typhoons and I actually looked forward to them because it meant no school. Of course we lived in concrete buildings. Okinawa is always prepared. I always question why we live in these shacks called houses compared to some people overseas. If it weren't for the house I currently live in. I wouldn't have worried much.
Hi Steeda. Good to have you here.
Yes it does SJ. But, the interesting thing is, is that it slowly pushes it E or alittle SE at first, almost leaving it behind. Then it gets picked up by the trough. We will have to see what the next few models runs bring in.
By the way, my own opinion is that this blog should be treated as part entertainment, part science discussion, part resource. It is only one of many sources (official ones being the ones we should get the most weight to).

It is a bit disheartening to see dozens of posts that have to do with each other and attitudes instead of tropical discussion :)

Chill, peoples.

Good night Rays,
Good night Code,
Thanks Good Michael for the link.
The 18z GFS shows it (the phase diagrams are from the 18z run); of more significance is that is shows three systems in the East Pacific.
Welcome Sunrise. Great to have you aboard.
Like I said, if it wasnt for the shear I would be very interested. But, Shear Rules!!..LOL
Shear does rule,
speaking of which maybe I'm due for a hair cut.
Talk to ya'll later.
Thanks for the tropical updates.
St3alth: I can relate to how scary it is in the middle of a cane. I was certain I was about to die for every minute from 11 pm - 3 am with Ivan. The sounds a roof can make! Not to mention oak trees hitting a house!
523. code1
Turtle!!!! Come on, that was pure spam! Get a grip friend.
springmaid pier (myrtle beach,sc)
7:00 pm 29.93 -0.03 water temp 28.7 F
6:00 pm 29.92 -0.05
5:00 pm 29.93 -0.07
4:00 pm 29.95 -0.06
3:00 pm 29.98 -0.05
2:00 pm 30.00 -0.04
1:00 pm 30.01 -0.02

this is the diamond shoals buoy (just off hatteras)41025
8:50 PM 29.91 0.00
7:50 pm 29.92 +0.01
6:50 pm 29.91 -0.03
5:50 pm 29.91 -0.04
4:50 pm 29.91 -0.05
3:50 pm 29.94 -0.05
2:50 pm 29.95 -0.05
1:50 pm 29.96 -0.04
12:50 pm 29.99 -0.02


Station 41001 - 150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS
8:50 PM 29.93 0.00
7:50 pm 29.91 -0.05
6:50 pm 29.93 -0.06
5:50 pm 29.93 -0.07
4:50 PM 29.96 -0.04
3:50 pm 29.99 -0.03
2:50 pm 30.00 -0.04
1:50 pm 30.01 -0.05
sustained winds at 23.3knts w/ gusts to 29.1knts
525. code1
Please spam it everyone so it will go away!

Thanks for the welcome, hurigo, louastu, StormJunkie! You guys are posting so close to realtime that this feels more like a teleconference than a blog ;)

hurigo, interestingly enough Sunrise was originally named Sunset when it was founded. They changed it due to the negative connotation of the word "sunset" as retirees began to flock to the area. LOL.
That is funny turtle, but keep it off this blog.
I can't say I have been hit as bad as you guys even though i live in S. Florida...Thank god i have never experienced an Ivan or much wors e a Charley.... I did get hit by the the southern and Western wall of wilma and by the eastern wall of Katrina(cat 1. The funny thing is I have never been in the eye..... but during Katrina my shed flew onto my roof then my cars.....after that everything for glass frames to tools were hitting my french doors..luckily none of the windows broke...During wilma so much stuff hit my house and I even saw trees sliding across my street and theres more but i don't feel like writing anymore lol...hopefully no Charley's or Andrew's for South Broward this year

jp, I am sure others from the area will agree when I say that even those in their own world without hearing news can tell when something tropical approaches in these parts. The stronger systems appear to suck all the moisture out ahead of it, making for spectacular weather ahead of time (remember the couple of days before Andrew?) Bright blue cloudless skies and low humidity in the summer is downright suspicious in these parts.

Then, of course, the outflow at high levels appears, next is seeing lower clouds streaking from odd directions (instead of east/west summer pattern) and the skies grow a suspiciously deep purpleblue to the east :)

HurricaneRoman, it sounds like you live in the same area as I. You wouldn't be an ex-fellow Worldcom employee would ya (Lauderhill)?
tAdding to my post: Hopefully no Charley's or Andrew's for anyone......
No sunrise lol
Please spam the annoying bunny away.
way too much ego and personal agenda here, chill for christsake! NOBODY knows for sure what's going to happen ref mother nature, EVER! Get a frickin grip!
Does the Bunny scare you sj?
Sorry, please spam that ppic of mine also. My bad. cantore, easy with the language and please spam the earlier post that is causing this mess.

SJ
what the.. wow.
lmao turtle.... It scares me though ;)
Very scar. Gotta say.
About ten years ago we had a group of young students called the "Toy Scouts" that made a virtual reality game where the object was to kill the energizer bunny. I demo'ed it at the job fair, and students stood in a long line to get to play it. Now that was funny...

The guy from the Disney booth came over to film it, but they never funded any of our work. That wasn't very funny.
I found an interesting link for all water vapor image watchers. It can help you understand what the heck you are looking at. It is from a manual of satellite meteorology.

To wit:

There is a clear relation between PV and water vapour imagery. A low tropopause can be identified in the WV imagery as a dark zone. As a first approximation, the tropopause can be regarded as a layer with high relative humidity, whereas the stratosphere is very dry, with low values of relative humidity. The measured radiation temperature will increase if the tropopause lowers. This is because of the fact that the radiation, which is measured by the satellite, comes as a first approximation from the top of the moist troposphere. High radiation temperatures will result in dark areas in the WV imagery.

The discussion on this page is really interesting to me because I think it explains why the eastern side of an upper low promotes convection. It all has to do with potential vorticity. Yippee!
Interesting that it identifies situations other than the eye of a hurricane where the tropopause is deformed.
All requests for spam notifications have been honored...

I'll be checking in later, good naught!
Please spam the easter bunny.
Hey everyone,

I will now add my own personal two cents on this constant conflict ridden website as well. In my humble opinion, this is what is wrong with this community. There are too many on here who are too eager to belittle others OPINIONS/educated guesses whatever you want to call them and make them into personal attacks rather than simply offering ones own personal best educated GUESS for that is all anyone on here including myself is doing relative to any forecast of their own.

To be more specific, there seems to be too many egos on here who pretend that they are somehow "experts" of all things in this field when that in itself most certainly is a most relative term. In reality, the very nature of this field is characterized as a very inexact science and this will ALWAYS be the case regardless of how many advances will follow in the future.

Naturally, I would personally strongly encourage that others look FIRST to the NHC forecasts before comparing them with any others. That being said, I see nothing wrong with anyone also utilizing additional resources to compliment the NHC forecasts for there are many others that also provide excellent analysis as well. In short, the central premise of this post is that I personally find it most absurd for any one of us to consider ourselves "experts" in this field when arguably the very best in the business (NHC) has a forecast error of roughly 40 miles on average only 12 hours prior to a landfall of the eye. Moreover, their forecast error for 24 hours in advance is roughly 70 miles. Consequently, I would argue that it definitely matters where the precise center of the eye DOES cross the coastline because it is undeniable that the most dangerous and life threatening effects (i.e. strongest winds and highest surge) will generally be felt within 25-50 miles (dependant on the size of the storm, i.e. Charley versus Katrina) of where the eye makes landfall.

As a result, one must understand that even that 40 miles of difference for where the eye is forecast to come ashore a short 12 hours preceding landfall have very significant consequences for those unfortunate enough to be in its path. Case in point, if Katrina's eye had come ashore another 40 miles to the EAST of where it did cross the coastline, New Orleans would NOT have been flooded as it was and more than 1500 lives would not have been lost.

On the other hand, this is why the NHC is so rightfully conservative with their forecasts and has such a large cone of forecast error where the emphasize that anyone and everyone located therein is at an extreme risk of losing their lives and/or property. To reiterate, there is no such thing as a true hurricane "expert" due to the immense complexities involved in such forecasts.
551. code1
Interesting that we have forgotten the Dr.'s request about pics (I would assume that includes video as well), for those on dial up.
No one here can accurately deny the fact that I have never once refereed to any of my own personal forecasts as anything more than my very own best educated GUESS. Consequently, I see nothing wrong with being "confident" in ones abilities as I will state I feel there is not one individual on here that I feel inferior to in that respect whatsoever. On the other hand, it is most important to me that everyone also understand I personally don't consider my knowledge, education, experience, or anything else for that matter to be of any more importance either than any others regardless if one were a "newbie" with the most basic knowledge of these storms. For me personally, I only joined these blogs for the personal interactions with those who shared my love of weather. More importantly, I personally value people first with my love of the weather being a very distant second in that regard. Likewise, it is this heartfelt desire encouraged me begin writing my own blogs in hopes that something/anything I had learned through my very own unique(this is the specific reason that I feel NO ONE here is more valuable than another) circumstances, experiences, knowledge, and education could possibly help even one other person in some minute way.

Therefore, I will conclude by simply reposting another bloggers comments earlier today for I personally believe it couldn't be better said in my humble opinion.

Posted By: OSHNBLU at 12:47 AM GMT on July 16, 2006.

"to all
I believe in the power of the blog. This is a place where many, many intelligent people gather with a commen interest. More gathered in one place than usual.
Everyone's opinion is of value. Each of us has enough smarts to form our own opinion. I, for one, like as much input from what I believe to be knowldegable sources before I make decisions and form an opinion.
Let it be about that, not personal attacks.
Everyone has something to contribute here
."


Great post OSHNBLU and hopefully ALL of us will apply such wise words in my humble opinion.

Most sincerely,
Tony
Well, while things are thankfully quiet in the tropics.....might I suggest that those interested take a look in the archives of Dr. Masters blogs fom Aug. 27-28 of last year. It's very interesting and if you take the time to read them answers a lot of questions that were raised tonite. They make for interesting reading even if you have no interest in the discussions tonite.


hey we been upgraded from purple to blue! LOL

i see no movement for the "disturbance" other than due south..... how long can this motion continue? if it persists, the high pressure ridge could build in to the nw and n, and push this blob back to the coast????

anybody?
code, was my pic too big? That is the blob coming of the SC coast.
holy moses SJ.... a 2mb pic! LOL

10X MORE THAN ALLOWED! :D
Mine were 2mb? I geuss resizing them does not actually change file size huh?

oops...sorry ya'll pelase spam, them.

SJ
When a post gets flagged, does the post go away or are we left with an annoying empty space with a red 'x'?
SJ, keep the same link, just dcrease the resolution, so you get it under 200kb.......

After 5 people flag a post, it goes away. The red X you are seeing, is a failed attempt at posting a picture.
goes away after five bloggers hit it bappit.

don't understand thel.

I will post links in my blog tomorrow. Got to head to bed.

StormJunkie.com

From what I have been told, changing the image dimensions, does not reduce the size of the file.
564. WSI
Changing dimensions with HTML commands does not change the size of the file. You need a photo program to reduce the resolution.

Infranview
is a great program for reducing entire batches of pictures down. Free too.
your right bappit. soryy, did not know that.

Again, feel free to spam my pics of the edge off the SC blob. I already did so it only takes 4 more.

Night all

SJ
Elmores, if you are still here, check out the latest NAM....Link...It hints at a leaving a piece of that system behind. Will be interested to see what the GFS has, but I am going to bed, will check it out in the morning. See ya all later.
I did know it, just forgot.

Night
Shear is strong tonite, but the shear forecast does not look that bad for that area the next few days..Hmmm..Will have to see if that shear does come down tomorrow. This one interests me a bit. Will check it out in the morning.


the blob that came of the SCcoast seems to be holding together pretty well....

could there be a low forming here as well?

my biggest question now is what is going to happen when all the moisture off the SC coast comes together??
SJ - very cool picture of the SC blob! Glad I got to see it before it got too many spam hits. But ...do I even want to know what prompted the Evil Easter Bunny video? LOL ...must be a boring evening in the tropics.
-stormy
if i am reading the NAM correctly, this piece off the SC coast will continue southward, then southeastward towards n. florida???

anybody?
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 83w south of
22n moving west near 15 kt. This wave is better organized than
the ones further east. A line of scattered moderate convection



whats your commets on this wave ??????????



all i will say is, this definately isn't your average night along the carolina coast! LOL
turtlehurricane, do not waste bandwidth with that crap again. Thank you.
"whats your commets on this wave ??????????"



Taz.... you talkin about this??? or what exactly?
ok..... does this look like an ordinary storm? LOL




sure does look like part of a doughnutt there.... with the west size exposed.....

guess what, we have moisture headin from the west towards the storm..... i am going to have to wait up another hour or two if i can..... want to see how this happens!

notice the extremely cold cloud tops to the ene of the ellipse......
its extratropical.
turtle, have extratropical storms ever evolved into a tropical storm?

add to that, this thing continues south, it will get shot back into the fla/ga coast......

: thelmores i am not sure if that the one


oh it this siad was . This wave is better organized


that all i can say but where and what one is it
jphurricane2006 oh thanks will as it are mb falling and could we have a TD soon
St3althW4rrior,

The comments you made about the quality of the house construction really hit home for me. We have been fortunate here in the Bahamas over the years in that whenever possible people have built from stone. Concrete block - the thick ones, not the narrow ones that guys break as part of martial arts displays - reinforced with steel is the order of the day in more than 90% of the modern buildings. The trend here in previous years has been to build low-profile roofs rather than the high-peaked ones seen in the northeast. Also, if what I have seen on various sites is true, even the way the roofs are fastened down here is a more secure method, with more fastenings per square foot than in FL. There is a much greater consciousness that if a hurricane hits, Bahamians literally cannot evacuate; there is no "up-state" to go to . . . . therefore a larger percentage of the population is more careful about how their homes are built.

Unfortunately in recent years some people who felt that hurricanes would not come again began following the American trend of sheet rock interior walls and high-peaked houses. Also there is (as I suppose is true wherever you go)always the danger posed by scam-artist contractors who take shortcuts and try to circumvent building codes as a way to maximize their profit. Nevertheless, despite some pretty hard blows in recent years, the bulk of Bahamian communities hit by hurricanes in the last 14 years have made speedy comebacks.

Mind you, we have been extremely lucky in that we have not had a direct hit from a major hurricane on New Providence since the late 1920s (1926, if my memory serves me correctly). Given the huge surge in population here, a storm like Charley would probably have horrible effects here . . .
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 83w south of 22n



so the image i posted earlier shoul be what is left of that wave???
586. Inyo
Hey, has anyone else noticed that Bud has maintained (lopsided) convection over waters of 70-75 degrees? Is this a similar phenomenom to what happened in the atlantic late last season? The waters off of southern California are almost this warm and with this massive heat wave they will only get warmer... what are the chances that in late September of this year a trough grabs one of these storms and lobs it into CA as a tropical storm? It HAS happened in the past.
doh!!!!!

sorry! not sure what happ there....LOL
JP,

Sure did! Check out the photos here:

http://home.att.net/~kaysee66/wsb/html/view.cgi-photos.html-.html
Link

We were without power in parts of Nassau for up to two weeks with Frances. The Family Islands (like Eleuthera, Abaco, and particularly Grand Bahama) were hit much worse than we were.
night all, apologies to anybody i peeved today! LOL
JP,

I was on an east-bound train when Charley hit W. FL. They stopped the train at New Orleans, then SENT PEOPLE TO ORLANDO ON A BUS!!!! I had to make a 4-hour taxi trip from there to Ft. Lauderdale the night after the storm passed. Orlando, despite being almost over on the other coast, was ravaged. And it was too dark to see all the damage . . .
About the system off of North Carolina:

This just seems to be in association with the troph moving off the coast. Dr. Masters stated earlier that it is extratropical. Someone asked above if extratropical systems can establish tropical characteristics. The answer to that is yes, but it takes a few days and is hard to achieve. The system will have to survive wind shear first, which doesn't seem likely. It's pretty to look at now, but I imagine it will be gone in the morning. If it hangs around a day or two longer, then you might have an interesting feature to contend with, but until then, I wouldn't bother worrying with that system.
I just spent an hour catching up on todays blog...my eyes hurt. Painful.....

Thelm has put up some nice pics..anyone in carolina going through any of these storms right now in here?
Funny thing others thinking Masters used their Shear Rules line to title the blog...

Check out this August 2005 blog title of his.
Obviously that's where everybody else got it from . . . . /bg/





had to get one more look before morning....

this storm seems to be getting "more" organized???

guess we'll see.... nite all...
wheres it headed?
any chance of this turning into a depression and hitting south fla?
606. IKE
This blog needs a bump-me-up.

The only game in town looks like the system off of the Carolinas. Looks like there's a piece heading on to the NE and a seperate piece dropping WSW. If that 2nd piece could get far enough south...maybe building high pressure would force it back toward the USA.

That's not forecast to happen, but the SE could use the rain.
Can't figure out the weather off SC. Another flare up just off the coast.
Who's the nutso trying to jam the site?
whatever the SC stuff is - keep it over there and away from here ...I'm marveling at another perfect boating day in the bay!
temp 80, sse winds at 3, clear skies, bay waters less than 2 feet

-stormy
Morning all. I see the SC blob is still there,and the models still recognize it also.

Been a good year thus far in the Keys. Let's keep it that way. Way to go wind sheer!!
Link
Stormy, Great day to be on the water. If St. Pete is like here in Ft. Myers. the water should be slick calm.(terminology my best buddy chastises me for).
morning everybody...... looks like we have "twins" off the carolina coast.......




i took the liberty to name them...... one is frick..... the other is frack! LOL

any idea which is going to be the dominan twin? LOL
613. IKE
Looks like that most recent blowup east of South Carolina is moving south/southeast. Pressures are around 1013mb off the coast of Carolina. The only hope is for it to keep moving south.
614. IKE
Frick if it can keep going toward the south.
Morning all.

Most of the models seem to still take the SC/NC complex NE at some point.

As for what would be dominant. There is or was a low trying to form on the NNW of frack or the OBX blob, but it could reform under frick or the MYB blob if the convection continues today.

SJ
616. IKE
Looking at a WV loop...appears the entire trough axis is moving south/southeast. If the Bermuda high could restrengthen it could force whatever develops back west. Obviously that isn't what is forecast, but things change.
lets just hope we dont get triplets.... things already confusing enough! LOL
Healthiest damn blob I've seen in a week!
Good morning! Since we have a lot of Florida folks in here may I say I started a blog for hurricane preparedness tips? While I agree there's not much to be gained from comparing everything tropical weather-wise this season to 2005, experience sure is a good teacher. All are welcome who wish to share helpful advice or ask questions. As a Florida native remembering back to Dora...I know many of us have been through a lot that could help others. Thanks. Have a beautiful Sunday. It is absolutely gorgeous here today...west of Ft Myers and indeed a slick calm surrounds (not ribbing,cheffjeff, I like that term, fits well!)
620. IKE
With the hurricane season of 2006..it probably winds up in the Bahamas.
"Looking at a WV loop...appears the entire trough axis is moving south/southeast. If the Bermuda high could restrengthen it could force whatever develops back west. Obviously that isn't what is forecast, but things change."

Ike, agree 100%!

i think in this particular "strange" set of circumstances, i wonder about the models this morning..... guess we'll see...... but my gut tells me a different scenerio may play out..... much like what you may have suggested......

guess we'll see ! :)

if we could take one of the twins, and put it over n.florida, that could make the rain needy happy! :)
622. code1
FLAnative, be sure to check out collinsfarm's blog too. Also, Raysfan has one in archives on the same topic. Can never be too prepared!
I could be wrong,but didn't ts Gaston start out as a "blob", that no one predicted to become anything?
624. IKE
That buoy 250 miles east of Charleston,SC has a pressure of 29.92 and steady the last 3 hours...usually it's rising now...
Yes 459, I just thought about Gaston earlier. Except I do not think this will get pushed back in to the coast at this point. It seem a move to the NE is most likly per most models. That could change if something tropical did happen to develop as it would depend alot on where it develops.

StormJunkie.com-imagery, marine data, forecast models, wind data, and much more. Even some nice WU blogger video.

SJ
chef,
LOL ..yes, "slick calm" it is! Just got the gear in the boat, cooler packed, and checked out the water ...smooooooooth! This is a day built for speed, a day to get those carbs cleaned out good!

You all have a good one - get out and check out some 3D cloud images from ground level!
whats going on with FRick and Frat this morning? have they dissipated yet or are they still going strong?
90W and 91E as pop up on the navy site


90W 91E
I did see some of those 3D clouds last night Stormy. Posted some pictures in the blog last night, but they were 2mb. my mistake. They may still be on page 2 if they have not been spamed away. It was off the MYB blob, or frick moving off the coast.
Have a great day on the boat Stormy
SJ - I did get to see your pictures before everyone hit the spam button - awesome! Maybe one day I'll remember to take pictures, while out on the water, of the afternoon convection that builds and moves off the coast. Normally, I'm in too much of a hurry to pack it up and get the heck off the water. The race to beat the storm to the coastline is an adrenaline rush - especially since you are having to deny your instinct and race toward it to beat it!

So I sat here long enough waiting for everyone else to get ready that now they are waiting on me...

out of here

-stormy
can any one get a fixs on 91E where about on 91E on the navy site
I don't know you guys I don't hear anyone on any of the weather sites talking about frick and frat and they sure don't mention even one of them on the NWS site. This might be a bad sign are they still there or showing up on the computer models?



anybody wanna comment on frack? i'm tired of being the one that always "sticks my neck out".... anybody wanna speculate? LOL
635. WSI
"I did see some of those 3D clouds last night Stormy. "

Google "shelf cloud images".

I believe that is what you saw.
Amazin, from what I heard the models still develop it and the thunderstorm complex seems to be still getting organized and I believe that the center is relocating.
amz, they are still there, frick appears to be growing, but the area thel has pointed to appears to be where the closest thing to a circulation is.

thel as far as speculation, the shear is really the only downfall right now and it appears to still be high on all of the analysis maps. As of the last model runs, the majors all still want to form something.
638. code1
Extratropical? Please thelmores, go slowly on the pics, dial up users remember? 10 pics out of 50 comments is way too many.
morning all,
would anyone know a link to previous year's wind shear maps? Just to compare it to whats happening now.


(are there still dial up users out there ;)
good thing I have a 6.0 Mbps hook up ;))
Ahhh...peace and quiet in the tropics...
Thanks WSI.

I think you are right, the ones I saw were a little further out in front of the big thunderstorms then the picture on wikipedia, but looked very similar.

642. WSI
It's hard to distinguish storm features here in the Carolinas, mainly because there are buildings and trees in the way. Out in the middle of the country, its a whole lot easier to see those storm features from what I understand.
Good morning folks, bunny's still here, huh? Too bad, I'd much rather here the news commentary on St3alth's video.

Keep ya'll fingers crossed for some rain here in Norhteast Florida today, we need it.
Yes it is
Morning all. Nice to see all is quiet. Aquak9, I'm crowwing my fingers and toes for you. Know you really need the rain.
OOPS-meant *crossing
Link
This link is a visible satellite image of our disturbance off the Carolinas. This shows more indepth of our center of circulation that Thelmores showed us on Frack. The center seems to be north of him and starting to receive convection on all sides, but we will just see what happens with him.
Seems very still here this morning, sticky humid with white skies, not hazy, but not really blue, either. And overnite discussion called for a (hopeful) PWAT sounding of 2.3 inches. Morning discussion mentioned capes at 3000-4000. I don't know too much, but I know I like those numbers.
NWAC, I noticed a trend in the models to try and split the Carolina system in to several parts. I am wondering if that is what we are seening. There is no question that there is circulation with the OBX blob, but the MYB blob seems to be taking a life of its own on also.

The shear is aour friend here, but I do not understand why we are getting so much deep convection if there is so much shear, and even more why it would be so persistent.
you know, i see something on frack, dont think i have seen yet....

outflow starting to develop on the north side.... could this mean that the shear is weakening some, and may allow for some intensification?

i hnow the nhc and many others just want these blobs to go away..... but i find what is going on very interesting, if for no other reason, the close proximity of these storms, and he fact that frick formed over my head! LOL

these storms that form off the coast of the carolina's in july which are extra/ tropoical can be some of the weirdest storms, and sometomes meander for days.... (certainly remember gaston and ophelia, and others)....

not that i dont believe the models, i just havent seen one model that makes sense atm..... but since they ALL point towards the ne, kinda hard to argue the point!

ok code, tried more charcters and less images! LOL

you know, i see something on frack, dont think i have seen yet....

outflow starting to develop on the north side.... could this mean that the shear is weakening some, and may allow for some intensification?

i hnow the nhc and many others just want these blobs to go away..... but i find what is going on very interesting, if for no other reason, the close proximity of these storms, and he fact that frick formed over my head! LOL

these storms that form off the coast of the carolina's in july which are extra/ tropoical can be some of the weirdest storms, and sometomes meander for days.... (certainly remember gaston and ophelia, and others)....

not that i dont believe the models, i just havent seen one model that makes sense atm..... but since they ALL point towards the ne, kinda hard to argue the point!

ok code, tried more charcters and less images! LOL

you know, i see something on frack, dont think i have seen yet....

outflow starting to develop on the north side.... could this mean that the shear is weakening some, and may allow for some intensification?

i hnow the nhc and many others just want these blobs to go away..... but i find what is going on very interesting, if for no other reason, the close proximity of these storms, and he fact that frick formed over my head! LOL

these storms that form off the coast of the carolina's in july which are extra/ tropoical can be some of the weirdest storms, and sometomes meander for days.... (certainly remember gaston and ophelia, and others)....

not that i dont believe the models, i just havent seen one model that makes sense atm..... but since they ALL point towards the ne, kinda hard to argue the point!

ok code, tried more charcters and less images! LOL

ROFL!!!!

I swear i only hit submit once!!!! it kicked me outta the blog, i do a refresh, come back, and now i have tripletsZ! LOL

sorry code, now you'll be mad at me for too much text! :D
aquak9 - You earned the naming rights on this one in my book: the bunny blob! ;)

Looks to me that the earlier GFS run yesterday had the right idea, as I see a low moving NE roughly east of Long Island, out to sea, while the bunny blob got left behind and is drifting SE. 1200z NWS Surface Analysis shows a 1012 mb extratropical closed low for that low moving NE out to sea. The "bunny blob" is not being initialized very well in the models; it seems the models are choosing the low more NE or something in-between for the most part. The 2006071600 MM5-FSU is the exception: it has three lows in that general area (I do not see the 3rd one myself). The "bunny blob" is looking more like a hybrid system to me, with the circulation that persisted from last night on the north side the convection with some of the convection trying to wrap around, but very sheared as would be expected under the heavy northerly shear over the region...we'll have to see if this is the "energizer bunny" if the cirucaltion persists or just the "killer bunny" out for a brief reconnaissance mission ;)

655. code1
LOL thelmores. That many??? Big blog blurp.
It is not for me, I have high speed cable, just know what it is like for others who don't. Thank you!
ROFL????????????
nice post guygee, it would seem "hybrid" system at this point would make the most sense......

this throws in a "curve ball" to the models.... and makes forecasting motion and intensity at this point difficult.....
thel - Well, I was going to name it "thel's obsession", myself :).
Taz..... sorry..... ROFL= ROLL ON the FLOOR LAUGHING.....

i have a bad habit of using LOL etc, its just that if you know me, i try to find humor in everything..... including weather.....

life is too short to walk around with a "tight collar" all the time! ;)

and most of the time, i am laughing and smiling when i post..... MOST OF THE TIME! LOL
660. code1
thel, I go by the mantra, as long as we can laugh at ourselves as well as at, and with others, we are good! I laugh at my own antics and self often. :-)
thel, I am by no means saying that the models are solid.

Of note in the models is that the CMC splits this thing in to three pieces with the S most being E of Sav Ga and not doing much. I also think that the cmc has both northern blobs initiated too far N.

As for the GFS, it seems to be much closer on location with initiation and it shows most areas moving N or NE. It does show a little vorticity pushing S and SE, but then all of that is very disorganized and dissipates.

The Ukmet does not seem too interested in any of it in the next 72hrs.
I agree thel, it is a very strange situation out there...I can understand the NHC not wanting to raise any "false alarms" over this thing, as they are largely responsible for warning the public and must really walk a tightwire to maintain public trust. It is safer to wait and see, from that view.

I think that this point needs to be emphasized: the NHC is not all about "pure science", they are all about the safety of the public, and rightly so... I think that is why they never called it on "Almost Beryl".
"thel's obsession"

well, thankfully th SC coast is not a frequent storm genesis location, so maybe that helps explain it a little?

i really do enjoy this blog though, hope i dont wear my welcome out too soon! :)
thelmores ah i see now


where any of you farcasing some in to pop up off of mX and move in to the gulf? well if so 91E as this pop up
thelmores is extratropical, do you understand?
bump the 666
anybody else notice the outflow north of "frack"?
669. code1
Turtle, please 'splain to me again. I think I know, just wanna make sure I am reading this correctly.
but how do you no that it may have be come tropical by now
"thelmores is extratropical, do you understand?"

turtle, thought you "graduated"?

i understand completely friend.... thanks for asking though! :)
672. code1
Explain extratropical that is.
thel - All in good fun...I appreciate the images and the your comments on this system, I would have noticed it much later if you hadn't brought it up first. Also appreciated StormJunkie's photo of the storm, we should all carry cameras or video cams around with us to share the unusual weather phenomena we experience.
674. code1
Thunder in P'Cola!!! Will 2 days of showers bring us out of the burgandy color into the red? Anyone know how that works? Would be happy to go red at this point. Even with a sprinkler system, my yard is a dust bowl when lawn service comes here. sheesh
hey..... if I am "extratropical".... is that an insult?
I explained my reasoning why I thought it was "hybrid", maybe turtle would like to explain his reasoning for why he is calling it pure "extratropical", instead of just employing "argument by assertion".
Tropical Cyclone Information

If you want to read up on tropical cyclones I have made a tutorial about it. The first paragraph deals with extratropical cyclones and such.
679. code1
Thanks, must read more than blog. Another laugh at myself!
Taz - No fair, that is just a model intialization, other model initializations show it as a hybrid on that same site, and turtle said he doesn't believe in the models, anyways...
681. IKE
Buoy 260 miles east of Charleston...west wind at 31...must be a good thunderstorm. Pressure off North Carolina down to 29.91.
Ike, where are you getting the pressure for that buoy. I can not get it on the NBDC site

Have a good day code

SJ
683. IKE
684. IKE
Link for 31 knot wind...Link
turtle's link has some very good information, but it does not address the not-so subtle differences between "hybrid systems" and the distinction between these and either "pure tropical" systems or "extratropical" systems". There is a wealth of scientific literature on the topic, and the distinction is universally recognized by real meteorologists.
686. IKE
That trough off the Carolinas extends westward thru southern GA. and AL...rain is developing..even down here in the Florida panhandle.
I would like to share Hurricane Emily:

I was in Freeport, BA June 05 and it looked like Frances had just come through. There were still debris piles and workers removing them. Many MANY damaged buildings including a ruined hotel. Port Lucaya Resort & Casino where we stayed was pretty much the only place that appeared to be completely repaired.

Than again, maybe that is not so suprising, as it is almost 9 months after Wilma in my own area and it's still very obvious we were struck. 18 roofs in my development alone are partially completed or still blue-tarped. The trees above 2 stories tall are suspiciously missing and I saw a skyscraper in downtown Ft Lauderdale that's still mangled and filled with plywood patches. If I knew how to post an image, I would show you all.

During Charley 2004, we were at Disney for a softball tournament that was to start Friday -- only we were trapped in the hotel (curfew) with no power until Sunday.

During Jeanne the same year we were stuck in Savannah an extra day and had to play the last round of Worlds in 40mph winds and tropical downpours.

A lot of people not around hurricane-prone area think that "getting back to normal" is accomplished in just a couple of months, especially for Cat 1 or Cat 2 storms. This is definately not the case!