WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Shary forms; potentially dangerous 91L approaching Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on October 29, 2010

Tropical Storm Shary is here, the eighteenth named storm of this remarkably active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Shary's formation makes 2010 tied for 5th place with 1969 for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms), 1933 (21 named storms), 1995 (19 named storms), and 1887 (19 named storms) had more named storms than 2010 has had. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. Shary is going to be a weak and very short-lived storm, and Bermuda is the only land area that needs be concerned with the storm. A Tropical Storm Warning is posted for the island, and rain bands from the storm can be seen on Bermuda radar.

Potentially dangerous 91L approaching South America and Lesser Antilles
A very impressive tropical wave (Invest 91L), about 350 miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest towards the islands at 15 - 20 mph. In discussions I had with hurricane experts at NHC and NOAA's Hurricane Research Division yesterday, it was widely agreed that this system was unusually large and well-organized for this time of year--something one would expect to see in early September, but not late October. The historical Atlantic hurricane data base shows no cases where a tropical depression has formed so far south and east so late in the year. "Ominous" and "unprecedented" were a few of the adjectives I heard used to describe 91L, and this system has the potential to be a dangerous storm for the islands of the eastern and central Caribbean.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 91L.

91L is centered very far to the south, near 10°N latitude, and this close proximity to the Equator has slowed development. Also slowing development has been the system's very large size--it takes time to spin up such a large circulation. Aiding development has been low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, warm ocean temperatures of 29°C, and a very moist atmosphere. A pass by the ASCAT satellite last night revealed a nearly closed circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Visible satellite loops do not show a clear surface circulation yet, though the storm has plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in organization, with several impressive low-level curved rain bands.

Forecast for 91L
91L will continue moving west-northwest at a decreasing forward speed through Monday, bringing very heavy rain tonight and Saturday to the northern coast of South America and most of the Lesser Antilles. The center of the storm will track very close the coast of South America this weekend, and it is likely that this will slow or halt development over the weekend. By Monday, the center of 91L may pull far enough away from South America that more substantial development can occur. However, steering currents are expected to substantially weaken in the eastern Caribbean beginning on Monday, as a strong trough of low pressure develops over the Eastern U.S., weakening the ridge of high pressure steering 91L. The trough may be strong enough to pull 91L to the north, resulting in a potential threat to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday of next week. We do have several models--the HWRF and GFS--that develop 91L into a hurricane by Wednesday. Shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for most of the next five days, and water temperatures are at near record highs, 29 - 29.5°C. There is the potential for 91L to reach hurricane status if passage over South America this weekend does not disrupt the storm sufficiently. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L at 2pm this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Hurricane Specialist Dan Brown coordinates with the Bermuda Weather Service, alerting them to the possibility that 92L might be upgraded to Tropical Storm Shary, necessitating issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the island that evening.

A Thursday evening shift at NHC
I spent another shift yesterday evening at the National Hurricane Center, where I've spent the week as a participant in their visiting scientist program. Each week during hurricane season, NHC invites a hurricane researcher or forecaster in academia, government, or private industry to spend a week shadowing the NHC forecasters as they prepare their forecast products. The evening shift is chosen, since it is less of a zoo, and the presence of the visiting scientist will present less of a distraction to the forecasters.

Once again, I spent the first portion of the shift working with Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch (TAFB) forecaster Wally Barnes, who made the intensity and position estimates of 90L, 91L, and 92L based on infrared satellite imagery. This task was accomplished using the Dvorak technique, a system of classifying cloud patterns of tropical cyclones based on how cold the cloud tops are, how much spiral banding is present, and other factors. We classified 92L (later to be Shary) as an ST2.5--a subtropical storm with 40 mph winds. The more dangerous tropical wave Invest 91L approaching the coast of South America got a far weaker classification, since the tops of its thunderstorms were not very cold, and the bands of clouds were fairly fragmented.

We presented our data to Senior Hurricane Specialist Dan Brown, who would be responsible for the decision whether or not to upgrade 92L to Shary. He was impressed with the ST2.5 classification we'd come up with for 92L, but wanted more evidence that the storm was as strong as this satellite estimate indicated. At 9:10pm, we had our evidence. The latest wind observations from NOAA buoy 41049 showed 33.4 knots (38 mph) as 92L passed by. This wind speed is just at the boundary of tropical storm force winds--39 mph. However, since the buoy's anemometer is at an elevation of 5 meters, an adjustment upwards to the wind speed is necessary to correct the winds to the standard measurement height of ten meters, due to frictional slowing of the wind near the surface. Thus, the buoy winds were more like 40 mph, above tropical storm force, and this was Tropical Storm Shary--if a closed circulation existed. Dan told us he was going to start writing an advisory package, in case additional data came in indicating 92L had a closed surface circulation. He called the Bermuda Weather Service to alert them that he was considering naming this system Shary, and that a tropical storm watch or warning might be required for the island that evening. Dan also called the head of the hurricane forecasting branch of NHC, James Franklin, to alert him of the impending new storm.


Figure 3. "This is the part where the world finds out about Shary," Hurricane Specialist Dan Brown told me as he filled out this form on his computer. About an hour before the first package of official advisories on a new tropical depression or tropical storm are sent out, NHC renumbers an Invest with the "AL" prefix and a number indicating how many tropical storms or depressions have occurred so far this year. In this case, 92L got renumbered AL20, since there have been 18 named storms and 2 tropical depressions that did not reach tropical storm strength. The newly numbered storm appears on the Navy Research Lab web site about an hour before the first advisory is sent out to the world. It is rare for NHC to change their mind and not issue advisories after renumbering occurs.

At 9:20pm, we had our proof of a closed circulation. A ship heading towards the center of Shary from the south measured west winds of 15 knots just south of the center, strongly suggesting that Shary had a closed circulation and was a legitimate tropical storm. Dan accelerated his work on the 11pm advisory package--there was a lot of work to do between now (9:30) and 10:30, when he wanted to get the advisories out. The other hurricane specialist on duty, Robbie Berg, helped out, and the two of them worked hard over the next hour to plot positions, scan the latest observations and model data, and type up advisories. Sandwiched between these efforts were several phone calls--a coordination call with other branches of NOAA and the Navy, another call to the Bermuda Weather Service, plus a conversation with Trinidad's weather service, which was concerned about the tropical wave (Invest 91L) approaching their island. Finally, at 10:30pm, the advisory package was complete, and Dan hit the "Send out to the Whole World?" button on his screen, making Tropical Storm Shary the eighteenth named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 4. Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg updates NHC's big hurricane tracking board with its newest addition, Tropical Storm Shary.

It's worth noting that we would not have known Shary was a tropical storm without data from the buoy the storm passed over. This buoy was one of the new buoys financed by a special supplemental funding bill approved by Congress several years ago, in an effort to improve hurricane forecasts. Money well spent in this case!

Next update
I'll have an update later today or Saturday morning on the latest from the tropics.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting hydrus:
I know.. Trinigirl said something about a tropical storm Faye striking Trinidad 17 years ago. It was a true or false question of hers. All i found was Bret in 1993.


I think she means this:

impressive image

http://www.brohavwx.com/EastCaribbeanTropicalAtlanticColourIR.jpg
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm extremely fluent with regards to Atlantic hurricane history, and I must say, the only tropical cyclone I can think of that originated from such a vigorous, convectively active tropical wave this late in the season is Gamma in 2005. Formed right around this area too.
Accuweather said that Tomas was suppose to lose his tropical storm status while passing to the north of south america.Looks like they may have to change their forecast....
1004. bwi
Forecast points unchanged -- no track update it appears.
Tropical Storm Shary
Wind: 70 MPH — Location: 31.2N 64.4W — Movement: NE maybe a hurricane soon...wow!!
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Not looking good for Barbados. I think that's where Rhianna's from. Anyway, hope the center passes well to the south. Although this system is so large that they will most likely feel TS force winds at the least for a period of time.


at barbados 7pm
2010.10.29 2300 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 35 MPH (30 KT) gusting to 55 MPH (48 KT)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Accuweather said that Tomas was suppose to lose his tropical storm status while passing to the north of south america.Looks like they may have to change their forecast....


Just a tad.
1009. Titoxd
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300003
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61
KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS AROUND 50 KT. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND A SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA.

BUOY 41101 IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER...REQUIRING AN EXPANSION OF THE 12-FT SEAS RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0000Z 11.6N 57.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
Quoting bwi:
Forecast points unchanged -- no track update it appears.


there are no track changes in intermediate advisories
1011. hydrus
The bull is about to enter the china shop.
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:


at barbados 7pm
2010.10.29 2300 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 35 MPH (30 KT) gusting to 55 MPH (48 KT)

Quite some gusts so far. Wow.
1013. xcool
buzz
Quoting xcool:
buzz


Good evening, xcool! Interesting, but also destructive days ahead.
Quoting hydrus:
I know.. Trinigirl said something about a tropical storm Faye striking Trinidad 17 years ago. It was a true or false question of hers. All i found was Bret in 1993.
Trinidad is the only island in the Lesser Antilles that can be said to be out of the hurricane zone. The truth is that a hurricane can hit just about anywhere; however the further south and west you are in the Caribbean the less likely that you will be at risk. The last hurricane to hit Trinidad was in 1873. The last Tropical Storm (winds up to 63 knots), Alma, hit Trinidad in 1974. Since that time no hurricane or tropical storm has hit the island.


This is what I found. Weird.
Quoting hydrus:
The bull is about to enter the china shop.
And he's surly not a welcomed customer.
1017. xcool
heyy very long time
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there are no track changes in intermediate advisories

It is a full special advisory. Advisory #2.
1019. bwi
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there are no track changes in intermediate advisories


Given what they said in the 7:45 update, I was hoping they'd make an exception. I hope people in the islands are watching closely. That was a pretty big jump north.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It is a full special advisory. Advisory #2.


ok but they did not change the track
1021. xcool
okay brb later
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Trinidad is the only island in the Lesser Antilles that can be said to be out of the hurricane zone. The truth is that a hurricane can hit just about anywhere; however the further south and west you are in the Caribbean the less likely that you will be at risk. The last hurricane to hit Trinidad was in 1873. The last Tropical Storm (winds up to 63 knots), Alma, hit Trinidad in 1974. Since that time no hurricane or tropical storm has hit the island.


This is what I found. Weird.


Thats why so many yachts go to T&T in hurricane season due to clauses in their insurance policies.
Quoting hydrus:
The bull is about to enter the china shop.


GAME SET MATCH
1024. Titoxd
nothing interesting elsewhere...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292359
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM TOMAS...LOCATED
ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TOMAS ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TOMAS ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

Just got on and saw our new tropical storm Tomas....Same name as mine..... Hope it is as a calm personality as me
Accuweather also states that Tomas could be the last hurricane of the 2010 atlantic hurricane season.But I'm not to sure about that.Maybe november might produce one.
Is Tomas a CV storm?
1028. bwi
Tropical Storm TOMAS Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive UPDATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT41 KNHC 300003
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61
KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS AROUND 50 KT. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND A SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA.

BUOY 41101 IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER...REQUIRING AN EXPANSION OF THE 12-FT SEAS RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0000Z 11.6N 57.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN



NHC going with the BAMM 2pm track.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Is Tomas a CV storm?


No, CV storms are classified as systems who form between Africa and 35 degrees West
So is Dr M still at the NHC today ?
1032. bwi
They didn't update the forecast positions, but did raise the intensity in earlier periods.
1033. hydrus
Quoting washingtonian115:
Accuweather also states that Tomas could be the last hurricane of the 2010 atlantic hurricane season.But I'm not to sure about that.Maybe november might produce one.
I beieve that November will definitely have a hurricane. And I will say a tropical storm also. Two tropical cyclones for November..
woooooooooooooow

Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok but they did not change the track
Everything has been updated now.
1036. NCSaint
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Is Tomas a CV storm?


Tomas is a creature all unto himself. The word "unprecedented" gets thrown around alot in here sometimes, but the fact that he developed as much rotation as he did so close to the equator, as far west this time of year as he has, truly makes him the exception. All we can do at this point is take notes for future reference and hold out hope for the islands
Please enlighten those who came on late. What is the BAM model(s)?
Quoting JUSTCOASTING:
So is Dr M still at the NHC today ?


Was wundering the same thing.
T.C.F.W.
R.I./21L/H/T/C1
MARK
11.55n/57.56w
Quoting bwi:
They didn't update the forecast positions, but did raise the intensity in earlier periods.

Yep
Tropical Storm TOMAS: Probability of tropical storm winds to 66 hours lead.

1044. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


GAME SET MATCH
For what its worth..Prayers to all in the path of Tomas.. The people down in that part of the world well informed when it comes to hurricanes. The informed and prepared folks I believe will make it through the storm....:)
anyone here from barbados try give us some reports on surface conditions for as long as possible thanks in advance
Quoting NCSaint:


Tomas is a creature all unto himself. The word "unprecedented" gets thrown around alot in here sometimes, but the fact that he developed as much rotation as he did so close to the equator, as far west this time of year as he has, truly makes him the exception. All we can do at this point is take notes for future reference and hold out hope for the islands
I agree. Good post. Considering he came from 5 degrees North, it's all quite....well, unprecedented. I'm going to be watching the next 2-3 discussions closely.
The deep convection is now closing in on the center.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anyone here from barbados try give us some reports on surface conditions for as long as possible thanks in advance
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
Conditions at

2010.10.30 0000 UTC
Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.80 in. Hg (1009 hP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anyone here from barbados try give us some reports on surface conditions for as long as possible thanks in advance

HuracandelCaribe (Post 1006) has been doing a nice job so far.
Quoting Chicklit:


Was wundering the same thing.


I was presenting/attending a conference yesterday at Florida International University in Miami, and one of the topics was Hurricane Mitigation. We had representatives from IBM, University of North Florida and University of Miami... too bad we couldn't have had a visit from Dr. Masters as well. He was just around the corner.
1052. hydrus
That does look like a pouch disturbance to the E-SE of Tomas...That could be interesting feature in a few days..
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned northward to (11.2degrees west of) dueNorth
from its previous heading of (1degree north of) WestNorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~11.7mph(~18.8km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~17.3mph(~27.9km/h)
Invest91L
29Oct 12amGMT - - 8.5n52.0w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
29Oct 06amGMT - - 9.3n53.7w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
TropicalDepression21
29Oct 12pmGMT - 10.0n55.3w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
TS.Thomas
29Oct 06pmGMT - 10.8n56.8w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - - 998mb - ATCF
29Oct 09pmGMT - 11.1n57.5w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - . - 998mb - NHC.Adv.#1
30Oct 12amGMT - 11.6n57.6w - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 999mb - NHC.Adv.#2

Copy&paste 8.5n52.0w, 9.3n53.7w-10.0n55.3w, 10.0n55.3w-10.8n56.8w, 10.8n56.8w-11.1n57.5w, 11.1n57.5w-11.6n57.6w, pmv, uvf into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 18^hours.

^ Each of the 2 westernmost line-segments spans 3hours between positions.
Each of the 2 easternmost line-segments spans 6hours between positions.
Quoting kmanislander:
The deep convection is now closing in on the center.



time to explode
Link
StormCarib Barbados.
Quoting NCSaint:


Tomas is a creature all unto himself. The word "unprecedented" gets thrown around alot in here sometimes, but the fact that he developed as much rotation as he did so close to the equator, as far west this time of year as he has, truly makes him the exception. All we can do at this point is take notes for future reference and hold out hope for the islands
a once in a life time
Quoting tomas5tex:
Just got on and saw our new tropical storm Tomas....Same name as mine..... Hope it is as a calm personality as me

Sure hope so too!
Flash flooding is a potentially serious problem for Barbados. They could also see gusts to hurricane force overnight and into tomorrow if not sustained given the pace at which Tomas is organizing. Many dwellings there are not built to withstand a lot of wind
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link
StormCarib Barbados.

Good Link. Thank you.
and really the strong winds were on the NNW side of the storm (or N) in the recon. approx 12.2N 57.1W following the plane's path
1062. hydrus
I think there will be rapid intensification after passing the Windward Islands.
1063. alfabob
Deep convection is the center.



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Well its heading more northward, away from SA coast, and is becoming more of a threat to Guadalupe, Martinique and the Greater antilles...
Loooong time lurker, 1st time poster.

Beginning to think I'm bad luck. Last year, sailed the BVIs - this year they got multiple sideswipes. Just got back (10 days ago) from sailing St. Lucia, St. Vincent, the Grenadines (Bequoia, Mustique, Canouan, Tobago Cays) with a couple of days in Barbados on the way back. Now they're all in the crosshairs ...
Quoting hydrus:
I think there will be rapid intensification after passing the Windward Islands.

I'm thinking it might actually be before that.
1067. DDR
those feeder bands will whiplash Trinidad & Tobago later tonight according to the met office.
Quoting alfabob:
Deep convection is the center.




Microwave is much improved.
Quoting nopepper:
Loooong time lurker, 1st time poster.

Beginning to think I'm bad luck. Last year, sailed the BVIs - this year they got multiple sideswipes. Just got back (10 days ago) from sailing St. Lucia, St. Vincent, the Grenadines (Bequoia, Mustique, Canouan, Tobago Cays) with a couple of days in Barbados on the way back. Now they're all in the crosshairs ...


Did Jim Cantore have an offspring? ;)
Quoting goldmind:
woooooooooooooow



Ohhh boy, we gotta buckle down here, this has caught so many by surprise. I filled gas earlier and the stations and markets were full.
1072. NCSaint
Quoting KoritheMan:


Did Jim Cantore have an offspring? ;)


I don't think even the "Human Curtain" Cantore could re-direct this one. Is it just me, or does Tomas seem to be creating his own environment, pushing TROFs around at his will and moving as he wishes? It's truly fascinating to watch, just sucks knowing the islands are going to get impacted.
1073. JRRP
1075. ryang
Conditions getting worst here in Barbados!!!
Quoting ryang:
Conditions getting worst here in Barbados!!!

Buckle down. Keep us updated but more importantly stay safe.
Quoting ryang:
Conditions getting worst here in Barbados!!!


Worse to come I am sorry to say.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


No, CV storms are classified as systems who form between Africa and 35 degrees West
What I meant was- has a weak wave been drifting across the Atlantic waiting to get its act together now. If I'm not mistaken even Camille was called a CV "child" even though nothing happened to that wave until it was near the western tip of Cuba.
Quoting kmanislander:
Flash flooding is a potentially serious problem for Barbados. They could also see gusts to hurricane force overnight and into tomorrow if not sustained given the pace at which Tomas is organizing. Many dwellings there are not built to withstand a lot of wind
hope for the best expect the worst
Here in Jamaica Tomas is predicted to have 115 mph sustained winds, but my anemometer's limit is 115 or just under. Do you think it would be wise to remove it closer to the time or just let it stay?
T.C.F.W.
R.I./21L/H/T/C1
MARK
11.98n/58.00w


Looks like models are not so down with a recurve now.
Quoting nopepper:
Loooong time lurker, 1st time poster.

Beginning to think I'm bad luck. Last year, sailed the BVIs - this year they got multiple sideswipes. Just got back (10 days ago) from sailing St. Lucia, St. Vincent, the Grenadines (Bequoia, Mustique, Canouan, Tobago Cays) with a couple of days in Barbados on the way back. Now they're all in the crosshairs ...


Just don't go to any of the other islands.

Where are you currently stationed at? O_O
1085. xcool


Poll time!

Q: In the next 120 hours, how strong will Tomas get?

A. Tropical Storm

B. Category 1 hurricane

C. Category 2 hurricane

D. Category 3/3+ hurricane

I'm going with D)
1087. Grothar
1088. xcool
brb
Quoting KoritheMan:


Did Jim Cantore have an offspring? ;)


Only if I can have his paycheck.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Here in Jamaica Tomas is predicted to have 115 mph sustained winds, but my anemometer's limit is 115 or just under. Do you think it would be wise to remove it closer to the time or just let it stay?


Remove it when it reaches MH status
Edit.
1092. KBH
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
R.I./21L/H/T/C1
MARK
11.55n/57.56w

Keeper
where can I get this link, Met guys saying system passing south, not sure they are looking at this system developing.. seems to be going bullseye
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: In the next 120 hours, how strong will Tomas get?

A. Tropical Storm

B. Category 1 hurricane

C. Category 2 hurricane

D. Category 3/3+ hurricane

I'm going with D)

D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Remove it when it reaches MH status

Ok, thanks. I'll check the specs and if it can handle it I will just reinforce it.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
A good deal of the models have trended to a more westerly track.

00z


Now that's a more likely solution.
1096. NCSaint
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: In the next 120 hours, how strong will Tomas get?

A. Tropical Storm

B. Category 1 hurricane

C. Category 2 hurricane

D. Category 3/3+ hurricane

I'm going with D)


Me too.....this thing is just a freak of nature
1097. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I'm thinking it might actually be before that.
Believe it or not, those islands down there do have an impact on the tropical cyclones as they move over them. I have actually seen a few of them weaken. It was a long time ago when I saw this..Tomas showing the mean green cloud tops..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
A good deal of the models have trended to a more westerly track.

00z
I tried to post that but I don't know what went wrong.
SHIPS 18Z:

700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 67 69 74 73 71 71 72 71 71 74

He already has the rich moisture around him only to increase with time on his way toward Jamaica. No dry air expected and his continued northward trek could lay the groundwork for not only an intense hurricane but a rather large one. His overall outflow is already pretty vast.
Quoting NCSaint:


Me too.....this thing is just a freak of nature


Yup...Random question: Do you live in NC?
18z NAM



18z GFS took Tomas to major hurricane strength:

1103. SLU
Quoting ryang:
Conditions getting worst here in Barbados!!!


Looks like a rough night ahead. I believe the general consensus is that the Islands are not prepared for Tomas given the very quick issuance of warnings and the rapid development so close to land.

I'm in Trinidad nowadays, and based on the feedback that i'm getting from back home, Trinidad seems to be more ready for the system than St. Lucia which is in line for a "good" blow.
Quoting KBH:

Keeper
where can I get this link, Met guys saying system passing south, not sure they are looking at this system developing.. seems to be going bullseye
Link my blog
Quoting kmanislander:
Flash flooding is a potentially serious problem for Barbados. They could also see gusts to hurricane force overnight and into tomorrow if not sustained given the pace at which Tomas is organizing. Many dwellings there are not built to withstand a lot of wind


Hi kayman, yes flooding is a real issue here, the Defence Force will be busy saving a few lives. With winds 60 already and this passing sometime in the wee hours to dawn for center, then morning, I fully expect we have a CAT 1 on our hands. Allen and David passed just South, but their tracks were from East going west with a dip, this fellow is moving from southeast to the west-north west. We got trouble.....

Few here are prepared for this.
1106. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Now that's a more likely solution.
I do not like the most likely solution...Please change it ASAP...:)
1107. juniort
Here in Barbados just waiting, it's a little windy where I am but worse in other places now and a little rain
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I tried to post that but I don't know what went wrong.


You have to remove the "S" in "https" for it to work.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You have to remove the "S" in "https" for it to work.
Thanks. :P
Quoting hydrus:
Believe it or not, those islands down there do have an impact on the tropical cyclones as they move over them. I have actually seen a few of them weaken. It was a long time ago when I saw this..Tomas showing the mean green cloud tops..

Sure it's possible, but not very likely to impact a storm this size. This is even if it moves directly over any of them.

Green tops are not a good sign.
Quoting NCSaint:


Me too.....this thing is just a freak of nature


E:Category 4+ hurricane
1112. bwi
Ship out a bit WNW of Tomas reporting 31kt winds and 13 foot seas:

SHIP S 0000 12.70 -60.20 166 294 60 31.1 - 13.1
GFDL now heading towards central America?


1114. NCSaint
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yup...Random question: Do you live in NC?


Yep...Jacksonville
Quoting lordhuracan01:


E:Category 4+ hurricane


D says, "Category 3/Category 3+
Quoting lordhuracan01:


E:Category 4+ hurricane

Wouldn't shock me.
18z GFS

Quoting NCSaint:


Yep...Jacksonville


Awesome!!!

I used to live in Jacksonville, NC!
1119. hydrus
Quoting uncljbnd:
GFDL now heading towards central America?


lol
Quoting uncljbnd:
GFDL now heading towards central America?




GFDL has been terrible for the past few days.
Quoting lordhuracan01:


E:Category 4+ hurricane

how about

F.CAT 5
1122. owntime
Looks like an A+ now, D later. Very impresive system.
Tomas is one dangerous dude , fingers crossed, but I guess that's wishful thinking!
Very impressive

Gonna have to say that this should be a hurricane in 12-18 hours.

The Models have shifted north from 2 p.m.
No longer interrupted journey in SA.
Tomas looks pretty much headed for Barbados.
This is happening fast and unexpected.

TomasLoop
1128. Grothar
Statistical models



And the Dyyyyyyyyynamitc models

It's going major. I may be called to duty on one of the islands. Where do the models like this heading after the traverse through Car.W.Carib?


STILL IMAGE
1131. hydrus
Quoting stormpetrol:
Tomas is one dangerous dude , fingers crossed, but I guess that's wishful thinking!
After that rather large jog to the north, Tomas should level off and move due west for a while.
Working on that core
Quoting Grothar:
Statistical models



And the Dyyyyyyyyynamitc models



12z?
1134. amd
Quoting Chicklit:
The Models have shifted north from 2 p.m.
No longer interrupted journey in SA.
Tomas looks pretty much headed for Barbados.
This is happening fast and unexpected.




yeah. hopefully those in Barbados are ready for Tomas and stay safe.
1137. pottery
Well!!
If THIS keeps up, I am going to have to water my plants before I leave here in the morning to go down the islands.

Current conditions-Trinidad,
Hazy, very still, a trace of rainfall at about 2:30pm, and Tomas passing north...

Tropical weather is a Complete Freak Show.
how many hours out do those dynamics models show?

Richard producing TS Winds
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Working on that core
Yep. As soon as the inner core establishes itself and a well-developed eyewall comes into shape, rapid intensification becomes of high likelihood.
Quoting pottery:
Well!!
If THIS keeps up, I am going to have to water my plants before I leave here in the morning to go down the islands.

Current conditions-Trinidad,
Hazy, very still, a trace of rainfall at about 2:30pm, and Tomas passing north...

Tropical weather is a Complete Freak Show.
ISN'T
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Working on that core

It's that tight, circular, deep inner-core he needs before he hits the accelerator. It's getting there.
turn my back for a few days, and look what happens.

Is there any type of consensus on where Tomas is headed?
daym. right now looks like tomas is headed across the lower antilles just north of windwards to the central caribbean where nothing much has happened all year.
they've either strengthened further west and hit the yucatan or else further east and veered north and away.
1146. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Statistical models



And the Dyyyyyyyyynamitc models

The statistical models are a little south of the dynamic ones. The further south Tomas goes, the more time over the warm waters there. jmo
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Richard producing TS Winds
Tomas .LOL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Tomas .LOL


No...Richard

Quoting zoomiami:
turn my back for a few days, and look what happens.

Is there any type of consensus on where Tomas is headed?

Beyond 96 hours it really becomes up for grabs. Timing with the robust trough digging in the SE will play a major role 4-6 days out.
Quoting zoomiami:
turn my back for a few days, and look what happens.

Is there any type of consensus on where Tomas is headed?
17N/71W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No...Richard

Ok. I see now.
Quoting Grothar:


One word...EEEKKKK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
17N/71W
I am not questioning your validity but where do you get that from ? NHC says 16.0N 76.0W.
Quoting bajelayman2:


One word...EEEKKKK

that's a good one.
on that note goodnight.
Realfeel® 41
1157. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ISN'T

LOL.
This morning / this afternoon, we were in line for some serious rain and gusting winds. (although I have said for a few days that it would likely pass north).
Now, it looks like we will get a couple of showers....
Freaky!
But very relieved.

Barbados in the crosshairs, and the Islands beyond.

1158. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
The statistical models are a little south of the dynamic ones. The further south Tomas goes, the more time over the warm waters there. jmo


I guess I have to explain everything to you. Here is an excerpt from HurricanAlley:

The statistical models start with the information as to where the storm is located and the time of year of the observation. The program will then search the available database for other storms in the same location at the same time of year. The forecast is then based upon the history of those storms, what they did at the same time of year from the same location. The program is not provided with any information concerning current weather factors that may influence the system being forecasted. This means that there could be potentially major influences upon the particular storm in question that would override the "historical" perspective.
1159. bwi
Based on the satellite appearance, I don't think it would be unreasonable to go ahead and fly some hurricane warning flags tonight.
1160. kwads
It is unfortunate we in St Lucia may not be 100% prepared for a Storm. As you indicated, the information from the NHC was late. The other reason was that we are preparing for our annual Creole Day weekend, which started today. Looking at the system, I am worried that it may be a hurricane before it reaches St. Lucia, which would make things worse. I hope we get some time tomorrow to do some preparation.
1161. Grothar
Quoting bajelayman2:


One word...EEEKKKK


Funny, my mother-in-law said the same thing when she first met me.
Quoting bwi:
Based on the satellite appearance, I don't think it would be unreasonable to go ahead and fly some hurricane warning flags tonight.
i agree, i do believe at 11 they will be up
1164. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

LOL.
This morning / this afternoon, we were in line for some serious rain and gusting winds. (although I have said for a few days that it would likely pass north).
Now, it looks like we will get a couple of showers....
Freaky!
But very relieved.

Barbados in the crosshairs, and the Islands beyond.

thats why i said to catch earlier what ever you can it will be a while before ya see it again the rain that is your dry season starts soon
10-20 knots of shear should do too much to restrict his development. That's pretty favorable.

00z

1167. NCSaint
Quoting Grothar:


I guess I have to explain everything to you. Here is an excerpt from HurricanAlley:

The statistical models start with the information as to where the storm is located and the time of year of the observation. The program will then search the available database for other storms in the same location at the same time of year. The forecast is then based upon the history of those storms, what they did at the same time of year from the same location. The program is not provided with any information concerning current weather factors that may influence the system being forecasted. This means that there could be potentially major influences upon the particular storm in question that would override the "historical" perspective.


And Dynamic models compile multiple model data and apply an average track, speed and intensification to assume a proposed course if conditions remain the same during the period of the dynamic track
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I still see a NW movement? do you?
1169. A4Guy
better view of the models...shows the southern outliers and the northern outliers...but the image is a little small.




ugh!  still can't figure out how to post images!!
1170. XL
not liking the track of Tomas. Where's Kman? I need him to throw some objectivity at me! lol
Quoting bwi:
Based on the satellite appearance, I don't think it would be unreasonable to go ahead and fly some hurricane warning flags tonight.
1173. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


I guess I have to explain everything to you. Here is an excerpt from HurricanAlley:

The statistical models start with the information as to where the storm is located and the time of year of the observation. The program will then search the available database for other storms in the same location at the same time of year. The forecast is then based upon the history of those storms, what they did at the same time of year from the same location. The program is not provided with any information concerning current weather factors that may influence the system being forecasted. This means that there could be potentially major influences upon the particular storm in question that would override the "historical" perspective.
My bad.....forgot my Geritol:)
1174. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats why i said to catch earlier what ever you can it will be a while before ya see it again the rain that is your dry season starts soon

That's the Worst news I have had all week. LOL
I am not looking forward to another dryseason already.
1175. bwi
Quoting PRweathercenter:
i agree, i do believe at 11 they will be up


Sooner than 11pm might help people prepare. Tropical storm warning often means secure the boat and stock up for power outage. Hurricane warning means board up the windows or go to safe shelter!
1176. kwads
It's 9pm in ST.Lucia
Two more storms and we hit the Greek alphabet, no?

Those forecast guys are pretty good sometimes. Hyperactive indeed
Quoting Grothar:


Funny, my mother-in-law said the same thing when she first met me.


LOL
I still see a NW movement!!!!
1180. ackee
LOOK at shear in easten carrbean will that weaken Tomas
Quoting XL:
not liking the track of Tomas. Where's Kman? I need him to throw some objectivity at me! lol
He was on earlier.
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

I still see a NW movement? do you?

Not really anymore. The little northwestward bounce has ceased. I am seeing a much more west-northwesterly track now. The speed however, remains the same.

I think it's a bit deceiving looking at the Infrared loops which would make it look that way, since a lot of the heavy convection is moving to the north. But the surface center is heading WNW right now. And as the system becomes more organized, the deep thunderstorm activity should begin to wrap around the center more to form a tighter, more defined core.
1183. Grothar
1184. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


"I guess I have to explain everything to you".

You have taught him everything you know.
And still, he knows nothing.
How odd.
wow this thing is huge and very well developed,don't mess with mother nature.I'am sure everyone wrote this hurricane season off for true monster storm.well here it is in what will be november
1186. A4Guy

Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
I still see a NW movement!!!!
It helps to look at the IR Shortwave loops.  The center is much easier to spot...and it's moving WNW....don't be fooled by the blowup of convection that makes the motion look more northerly.
Quoting XL:
not liking the track of Tomas. Where's Kman? I need him to throw some objectivity at me! lol


You rang ??
1189. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
My bad.....forgot my Geritol:)


I was told they have a new and improved one, that helps with memory. At least I think that is what they said. Some little storm brewing, eh? I hope it doesn't get too strong.
1191. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


You rang ??

hehehehhh
Nice one.
1192. alfabob
1193. Grothar
Quoting pottery:


Was that a shot? LOL
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


From Site:
The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
1195. SLU
Quoting kwads:
It is unfortunate we in St Lucia may not be 100% prepared for a Storm. As you indicated, the information from the NHC was late. The other reason was that we are preparing for our annual Creole Day weekend, which started today. Looking at the system, I am worried that it may be a hurricane before it reaches St. Lucia, which would make things worse. I hope we get some time tomorrow to do some preparation.


Hey kwads. Welcome to the blog. I heard the local news tonight but Tomas didnt even make headlines. Just a comment about the possibility of rains and flooding tonight. Safe to say that the country isn't ready. I hope the doesn't end up being another Tropical Storm Debby scenario.

1196. Mixed
No Rain Here Yet Just A Wind Gust Here And There Every So Often, Here In St Lucia Just Waiting Patiently, This Thing Has Really Intensified Much Today.
1197. ackee
looking at Tomas current track does seem like barbados is going to get a pounding. Here in jamaica we will continue keep really good EYE on Tomas
1198. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Was that a shot? LOL

From me??
Nahhhh.
1199. DDR
Hey pottery
I just had a light shower pass over me,expecting torrential rains after midnight.
Quoting pottery:

hehehehhh
Nice one.


Looks like you guys are off the hook on this one, as usual LOL.

Jamaica, and Haiti , are the ones in the cross hairs of a major for now it would seem. Barbados is also in for a very nasty event. Flash flooding tonight coupled with winds to hurricane force in squalls a distinct possibility between midnight and noon tomorrow IMO
1201. XL
Quoting kmanislander:


You rang ??


lol. Hi how are you doing. This thing is not looking good? Timing wise could this be a repeat of Paloma?
SHIPS 00Z Shear Forecast:


TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 9 12 18 16 17 15 17 15 15 10
1203. pottery
Quoting Mixed:
No Rain Here Yet Just A Wind Gust Here And There Every So Often, Here In St Lucia Just Waiting Patiently, This Thing Has Really Intensified Much Today.

Stay prepared there.
Tomas is full of surprises so far, and more to come for sure...
Quoting Grothar:


Funny, my mother-in-law said the same thing when she first met me.


ROFL...that is lots better than what my MIL did at the time..she walked around her house crying and carrying a kleenex!..of course that was 35 years ago..she loves me now - lol
1205. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Stay prepared there.
Tomas is full of surprises so far, and more to come for sure...
Quoting DDR:
Hey pottery
I just had a light shower pass over me,expecting torrential rains after midnight.


Looks like we've got more proof that God is a Trinidadian. lol
Just saw a star in the sky and that is my cue to go get some shuteye...Those in Barbados, Grenada and St. Lucia...make sure and lock up tight.Good night all :)
1207. amd
I just checked the pace of activity from August 21st of this year to now and compared that to the same period in 2005:

2005:
Tropical Storms = 15
Hurricanes = 10
Major Hurricanes = 5

2010:
Tropical Storms = 16
Hurricanes = 9 (10 very likely tomorrow)
Major Hurricanes = 5 (6 very likely in the next few days)

This year's activity between August 21st and today has been unprecedented. IMHO.
RAW T# for Tomas have shot up to 4.0
Quoting TriniGirl26:
Just saw a star in the sky and that is my cue to go get some shuteye...Those in Barbados, Grenada and St. Lucia...make sure and lock up tight.Good night all :)

G'nite. Stay safe.
1210. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Looks like you guys are off the hook on this one, as usual LOL.

Jamaica, and Haiti , are the ones in the cross hairs of a major for now it would seem. Barbados is also in for a very nasty event. Flash flooding tonight coupled with winds to hurricane force in squalls a distinct possibility between midnight and noon tomorrow IMO

Certainly looks good for us now.
And bad for B'Dos and beyond.
Only a trace of rain today here, but would not be surprised to get some showers tonight.
We need some rain, actually.
Quoting XL:


lol. Hi how are you doing. This thing is not looking good? Timing wise could this be a repeat of Paloma?


Just finished a good curry chicken so doing very well indeed LOL

The models have Tomas making a hard right over or near to Jamaica and for now that forecast looks good to me. Still too early for us to worry about.
1212. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Hey pottery
I just had a light shower pass over me,expecting torrential rains after midnight.

Not sure we will get that.
1213. DDR
Quoting SLU:


Looks like we've got more proof that God is a Trinidadian. lol

Hi SLU
are you still in Trinidad?

1214. geepy86
new blog
1215. pottery
Quoting SLU:


Looks like we've got more proof that God is a Trinidadian. lol

Well, I did not want to be the one to say it. Yet!
1217. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Not sure we will get that.

12n heading wnw,expanding feeder bands,i'd say 50% we get some heavy tonight.
1218. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


I was told they have a new and improved one, that helps with memory. At least I think that is what they said. Some little storm brewing, eh? I hope it doesn't get too strong.
Well...I think it is a safe bet that Tomas will indeed become our 6th major storm of the season. Chances of this thing remaining below major hurricane status are much slimmer than they are of Tomas attaining cat-3 strength...
1219. 7544
nhc going tracks south no ne turn hmmmm
could the turn happen further west off western cuba maybe
1220. SLU
Quoting DDR:

Hi SLU
are you still in Trinidad?



Yes I am. I was very worried for TnT earlier today but it seems we will be ok.
Quoting hydrus:
Well...I think it is a safe bet that Tomas will indeed become our 6th major storm of the season. Chances of this thing remaining below major hurricane status are much slimmer than they are of Tomas attaining cat-3 strength...

Nice pic
SLU - nice Pitons pic.

Wishing the best for my newfound friends in the Windwards - including Debra, our rainforest guide on St. Lucia, who is the long-lost twin (looks just like her) of my step daughter's best friend.
1223. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Well, I did not want to be the one to say it. Yet!


lol
1224. XL
Quoting kmanislander:


Just finished a good curry chicken so doing very well indeed LOL

The models have Tomas making a hard right over or near to Jamaica and for now that forecast looks good to me. Still too early for us to worry about.


Well hopefully it is not over Jamaica. Wouldn't wish it on anyone. Glad to hear I am worrying too soon
lol
1225. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
The red areas are great big bowls of hurricane Wheaties for Tomas,s already well stocked craw...
1226. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Nice pic
You dig the NESDIS water vapor pic.?...Here is the link--Link
1227. SLU
Quoting nopepper:
SLU - nice Pitons pic.

Wishing the best for my newfound friends in the Windwards - including Debra, our rainforest guide on St. Lucia, who is the long-lost twin (looks just like her) of my step daughter's best friend.


lol thanks. I hope the guys back home are well prepared for this too. It looks really nasty.

Let's move to the new blog now....
Quoting hydrus:
The red areas are great big bowls of hurricane Wheaties for Tomas,s already well stocked craw...

LOL. He's got the fuel there. He's just got to use it.
Quoting hydrus:
You dig the NESDIS water vapor pic.?...Here is the link--Link

Yeah...love that image. Thanks.
1230. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:

LOL. He's got the fuel there. He's just got to use it.
If you can, try the link I posted . I switched it out to a better one..
Quoting hydrus:
If you can, try the link I posted . I switched it out to a better one..

Works great! Master's has got a new blog. I'm moving over.
New Blog
What's the scenario for PR?
Quoting DDR:

12n heading wnw,expanding feeder bands,i'd say 50% we get some heavy tonight.

What you mean with 12N?
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
What's the scenario for PR?


What I've seen so far, is a system that is moving more N than the supposed WNW... Even the forecasted points are SW of where the COC is....
Even local news, like Wapa and Univision are presenting old model diagnostics....
Here it comes.... For me Thomas is going to come closer than diagnosed....

Hurricane in less than 24 hrs....

1238. Bubu77
Hello je suis en Martinique et assez inquiet par rapport à ce phénomène car les journalistes et Météo France n'on quasiment pas prévenue la population !!

Et pourtant ca se rapporoche inexorablement et elle se renforce bien !!!

Very Very Bad !!!
Looking over the 1st 24hr of error on Tomas models was a bit shocking. Even on the 1st run models don't usually over all do that poorly. Worse was OFCL came in 2nd to last overall the models.. & FOr reasons I discussed the other morning.. no suprise.. CMC on top..

Average Position Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
CMC CONSTANT 36.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF INCREASING 79.8 215.6 102.2 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 107.6 178.3 204.1 -1 -1
BAMD INCREASING 144.1 250.4 315.2 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 167.2 144.3 114.4 -1 -1
GFDL CONSTANT 281.1 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E CONSTANT 285.8 -1 -1 -1 -1
KHRM CONSTANT 321.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
OFCL CONSTANT 329.9 -1 -1 -1 -1

I still think it has a good chance to eventually be swept NNE, if that's over Hispaniola, Jamaica & Cuba or farther west, we'll have to see.
Wind really picking up here in Barbados now, and he aint even here yet!

Good gusts and squalls, I am in South-Centre of Island, closer to South.

Street light in front of me gone, hard a loud thump and not giving light, think it may be down (aluminum pole).

Remember, may stop posting at a certain time, as the Light & Power may actually switch off to prevent worse damage, if things get harsh.
Actually street light is working, dont know what went thump....good thing this is not nightmare on elm street..or a 'b' movie...

things just kinda dark outside...
looks on the satellite loop to be going to our east/north side, not south per the forecast
This may track quite above original forecast , towards Cuba etc....
posted into the wrong blog.