WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Severe weather outbreak expected today across the Southeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:28 PM GMT on March 04, 2008

Two tornadoes touched down in Mississippi yesterday, and the record early season onslaught of tornadoes in the U.S. is expected to continue today. An unconfirmed tornado hit Camp Shelby, a Joint Forces Training Center 75 miles northwest of Mobil, Alabama at 11:25 pm CST Monday, injuring 14 National Guardsmen. A second tornado briefly touched down near Cary, Mississippi, and golf ball sized hail and damaging thunderstorm winds were plentiful across Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas yesterday.

Another volley of tornadoes is possible over the eastern portion of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this region under its "Moderate Risk" target today--one level below the maximum "High Risk" threat level. A powerful low pressure system will pass north of these states, dragging a strong cold front through. Strong EF2 and EF3 tornadoes are possible along this front, and the action may move into Maryland and Delaware late tonight. Tornado watches have already been posted for portions of Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee this morning. The tornado page is a good place to track the tornadoes as they occur today, along with our severe weather page.

2008 sets early tornado season records
The year 2008 smashed the record for most January and February tornadoes, with 368. The previous record was set in 1999, with 235 January/February tornadoes. Reliable records extend back to 1950. The 232 tornadoes reported in February of 2008 was a record for the month of February. Second place goes to 1971, with a relatively paltry 83 tornadoes. Each of the past three years has seen an unusually early start to tornado season (Figure 1). One would expect to see a shift in tornado activity earlier in the year in a warming climate, along with an earlier than usual drop off in activity in late spring. We can see that in both 2005 and 2006 that tornado activity dropped off much earlier than usual, and it will be interesting to see if 2008 follows a similar pattern. Note that there is a very high natural variability in tornado numbers, and the record for fewest ever January and February tornadoes was set just five years ago in 2002, when only four twisters occurred. It will be at least ten more years before we can say with any confidence that a warming climate is leading to an earlier peak in tornado season.

La Niña to blame?
There does seem to be a tendency for more early season tornadoes during La Niña years--four of the five years that had January/February tornado counts above 75 were all La Niña years (1971, 1975, 1999, and 2008). The only exception was 1998, which was an El Niño year, and had 118 January/February tornadoes. However, connection between La Niña and enhanced tornado activity is a controversial area of active research, and we don't know enough about the matter to blame this season's early tornado activity on La Niña.


Figure 1. Tornado reports so far this year have totaled 368 for the months of January and February, by far the greatest number of tornadoes observed so early in the year. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters
Four X
Four X
A strong cold front is approaching middle Tennessee this evening. No tornadic storms reported but plenty of rain and interesting lightning. It was spring like in the 70's today. The wild swings continue this winter with snow showers forecast tomorrow afternoon.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey there StormW!!!! Looks like we have the lower level convergence down here to support severe wx. Question is whether all of the other ingredients will cooperate.
Been busy. Getting ready to finally go off to Navy late next month. Had to get a medical procedure out of the way before I could go.
" The previous record was set in 1999, with 243 January/February tornadoes. Reliable records extend back to 1950."

Jeff, I really do not agree with this.
100's of new doppler radars came online in the mid-1990's. Which totally changed the ability to identify tornadoes, and separate individual tornadoes from a bunch of tornadoes.
You would not be comparing the same from
1950 to 1995 - 45 years
1995 to 2007 - only 12 years

Using much better and much more radar to identify more tornadoes in that last 12 year period
would of course not be the same data as the first 45 years.

"It will be at least ten more years before we can say with any confidence that a warming climate is leading to an earlier peak in tornado season."

When people argue global warming, they are told that 10 year periods are not enough to show a trend. Either temp increase, or to show temp decrease.
Applying that evenly to both sides.
I would think someone would need a much longer period of time than just another 10 years.

Comparing the same data would just be
12 years plus 10 years
only 22 years of like for like

So, what is your current thinking for Central and Southern Florida Storm and Nash? I know that I can trust your analysis. Better than the news stations down here who continue to say scattered showers. No mention of possible strong to severe storms by any station.
4. nash28 9:46 AM EST on March 04, 2008
Been busy. Getting ready to finally go off to Navy late next month. Had to get a medical procedure out of the way before I could go.


I wish you nothing but the best of luck Nash. I'm proud that you made the decision to join the Navy.

Cchs- It really depends on the low level convergence, timing of the line and lift.
Great blog, I enjoyed it. Nice to see these severe weather blogs coming from you Jeff.

I can't wait for Spring to arrive, and then we can start having the severe weather up here in our Michigan area.

Take care.
Looks like Tampa's in for some heavy rains...
Based upon the latest satellite imagery, if I'm going to get my lawn cut, I better do it soon. I want to hold it off until later. All I know is that it's going to take some huge brakes to stop this train that I'm seeing on satellite loops. Storms may hit the Tampa area by mid-afternoon at its current speed. By the way Storm, I live in Broward County. Anything that you could provide for my area?
NEXRAD Radar
Tampa Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Link
Hope the Tampa area is ready to get blasted with strong winds and heavy rains. Coming fast.
I'll be out for the next hour. Gotta take care of my lawn.
Tampa Bay Webcam Link

Clearwater beachcam Link
There was also a possible tornado north of Tylertown, MS lastnight around 00z. Swept within a mile of some family. Their nieghbors lost alotta trees, a trampoline got rapped around a tree. Some people farther down lost their house. They were huddled in it but luckly uninjured.

cchsweatherman~ Those local news guys are owned by the tourist indusry...beautiful day always:)

The helicity could be higher but still~ slight risk for the north 1/2 of FL for tornados. A little sun has snuck through, hotter it gets better chance. Wind gradient is looking impressive though, that factored in, may see straight line winds as a larger factor. Moving faster then expected, should lower the risk for west side of FL as this shouldn't get kickin too bad til later today.
looks to be an interesting afternoon... Looking forward to recording something in my new rain guage... Have you put yours up yet, Storm?
rains are finally light after a good splash n' dash in Atlanta...
Very windy here in the Big Bend (now that the front has "passed") and as the convection West of Florida seems to be thinning, expect lots of wind gusts later today in the wake of the front.......Not a good idea for a swim on the west coast anytime soon.........
The wind is BLOWING here in Savannah...woooooo hoooooo!!! Anyone for sailing!?

Everyone stay safe today....

AWeatherLover~ what kind did you get? Already need to replace my anemometer on the La Crosse that showed up Christmas before last. Anyone one know if those are compatable to any better upgrades?
Continuing with the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone information, here are some infomation on places to look for development. I hope that most ppl saw the forecasting tools to help forecast for the season. If not here's a list. You can go back to 8:23 am AST (7:23 am EST) Sunday on the previous blog for expanations.

a. Surface Pressure and SST Anomalies

b. Upper Wind Anomalies (Westerly, Increasing)

c. Location and intensity of the monsoon trough, ITCZ, subtropical high-pressure ridges, African Easterly Jet.

d. Southern Oscillation

e. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

f. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)

g. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

h. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

i. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough/Lows (TUTT)

j. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

k. Climatology

Formation Sources


a. Persistent area of thunderstorms or convection (synoptic in size)
b. The monsoon trough, NECZ, or ITCZ
c. A tropical wave
d. A dissipating frontal boundary or frontal low
e. An extratropical cyclone/a subtropical cyclone
f. An upper level low
g. A surface trough of low pressure (other than NETs)
h. The interaction between remnant disturbances, tropical waves, upper%u2013mid tropospheric troughs

Sometimes, large areas of thunderstorms develop over land and move into an oceanic enviroment and develop a surface low beneath them. Intially, they are weak but then can maintain a positive feedback loop and develop into a tropical cyclone. They are commonly found over Northern South America and the Gulf of Mexico Coast. There were a few of them during the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season in the GOM and the SW caribbean Sea. Never made it to TD status. The thunderstorms must be synotpic in size (several hundred miles or more). So mesoscale thunderstorms dont count. Dont go forecasting every thunderstorm to develop this season. LOL

The Monsoon trough or ITCZ. The diffrence between the two is the low level winds and the orientation of the convection. The Monsoon trough has cross-equatorial flow on the Southern end (in the Northern Hemisphere), that is, the southeast trades cross the equator and become southwesterlies. This creates ample positve vorticity resulting the formation of several tropical cyclones. In addition to vorticity, the monsoon trough is equipped with low pressure and upper anticyclonic divergence. Boy this is the true breeding ground of tropical cyclones. The monsoon trough lies over Western Africa and projects out into the Atlnatic from July to Setepmber. The ITCZ is the axis between the northeasterlies and southeasterlies. Not the most favorable enviroment since the flow is conlfuent (not cyclonic) in nature. Anyhow, tropical waves moving along an active ITCZ can enchance cyclogensis.

Of course from July to September, tropical waves are key sources of tropical cyclone formation. Tropical waves are cold core in nature (they weaken downward). Tropical waves can be easterly waves or low level reflections of upper cold core lows. There are actually three types of easterly waves:

The African Wave - Ethiopia to the Cape Verdes Islands
The Inverted V Wave - Cape Verdes to the Lesser Antilles
And the Rheils Easterly Wave - Lesser Antilles to the Eastern Pacific.

African waves have a circulation at 700 mb until they near the coast, then they aquire a surface low. These are related to the AEJ but i will not go into detail to confuse anyone. Some of these waves fall apart over the cooler ocean off west africa but then the others develop rather quickly like Dean, Ivan, helene, etc.

Inverted V waves ride the dry enviroment across the Tropical Atlantic until they reach the Eastern caribbean where they suddently blow up due to either warmer SSTs, more moisture or interactiion with the TUTT. Examples are Felix and Ernesto. Also Charley in 2004 and Claudette in 2003.

Tropical Waves will be discuss in much more detail later as the season nears. These are just short points.

Dissipating fronts...These occur mainly in July, where fronts move off the east coast of the US or even the Gulf, form a frontal low. The front dissipiates and the low slowly builds convection and aquire tropical characteriscts. Examples include Berly 2006, Gaston 2004.

As we saw with Ana 2003, extratropical storms can become subtropical storms which can then become tropical in nature.

An upper low can extend its circulation to the surface to become subtropical (mid-way) or fully tropical. The process invloves changing the upper cold core to a warm-core by heat of condensation from thunderstorm activity. Thus changing the rain and wind pattern also.

and finally, the interaction of systems. Sometimes upper lows, interact with surface troughs to form a subtropical cyclone. Or a tropical wave interact with an upper low. Or a tropical wave interact with a remnant tropical wave wave. Or a front interact with a surface trough or tropical wave. Examples include Cindy 2007 and Katrina 2005. Most of these interactions happen in the early part of the season especially in June in the Western Caribbean.
Back now all. Looks like South Florida may now get the worst weather as it seems the main convection has started going southeastward. Looking at the Regional Radar, this front may bring much more rain to South Florida than originally anticipated. Thank goodness I did my lawn now. Thoughts?
Thank you for your constant input on the tropics so that we all may learn, 456. Keep it up. I've been learning more from your posts than from my ENC1102 teacher. I find it quite useful to further enhance my forecasting when it comes time for hurricane season. By the way, did you see that we have yet another tropical system near Madagascar? Invest 97S. Will nature ever leave them alone?
Not sure what brand it is except its the kind they use at the NWS. Dan Noah gave them out at the last AMS meeting. Its a funnel rain guage so its more accurate in heavy rain than a tipping bucket. That's all I know about it, hope that answers your question.
Hey Storm,
Have you been keeping an eye on both satellite imagery and radar imagery? It looks like South Florida may get the worst weather from this front by late today into tomorrow. Based on satellite imagery, the main convective burst has now taken a SE course towards Ft. Myers. If this front stalls, South Florida will see some flooding. Do you agree with me? Thanks as usual for your advice and expertise.
The main squall will follow the first rains and should be around the Tampa area late afternoon into early evening. That's the best chance for strong/severe storms.
Every state the line is pushing through now is under a tornado watch in the area.
Hey House! If anything, it would be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. If there were more energy down here, then the tornado watch would be more likely. It's still a slim possibility though, considering the amount of shear. We'll see.
Storm,
If you left a comment after my quote, it did not appear.

HouseofGryffindor,
I think that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued for all Central and Southern Florida later today as these storms show no signs of immediate weakening. The ingredients are not around to have tornadoes, although there could be an isolated one IMO.
I gotta guess tornado watch. More unstable then the one that passed through last week & most of the north 1/2 of FL had a tornado watch at some point for that.
Storm~ the anemometer, can I get a better one that would be compatable with the rest of the La Crosse system? Everything is phone lines, I don't know if the info is coded different.
For W. Central FL if there is any tornadic activity, it would most likely be an F0 waterspout maybe continuing onshore for a brief period.
...STORM SURVEY TEAMS WILL BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADOES
MONDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. TWO NWS STORM SURVEY TEAMS WILL BE IN THE FIELD
TODAY WORKING WITH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS TO EXAMINE THIS
DAMAGE AND DETERMINE IF TORNADOES OCCURRED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE CAMP SHELBY AREA OF FORREST
COUNTY...AND NEAR LAKE IN SCOTT COUNTY. ANOTHER AREA OF DAMAGE IN
SOUTHWEST CLARKE COUNTY WILL ALSO BE SURVEYED TODAY.

OTHER LESS INTENSE AREAS OF DAMAGE...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADOES...HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN OTHER AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THESE AREAS OF DAMAGE WILL
BE SURVEYED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

AEG
CONUS IR Image of the Storm Link
Question for everyone.

In the past, I've given phone calls to friends throughout Florida and other states when severe weather will affect them. My friends usually don't pay attention to the news and only a select few have weather radios. Just had to pull an all-nighter a few weeks back and had to make only one phone call for a friend in Coral Springs. Should I start calling people now in Central and Southern Florida about possible severe weather later today and tomorrow? Thanks.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Link
If the shear is uni-directional(winds generally from one direction as we increase height in atmosphere), then tornado watches probably wont be posted. Energy itself doesn't necessarily translate to a tornado threat, but changing wind direction/speed with height does increase a tornado threat.

Energy provides the fuel for starting/sustaining strong thunderstorms, and in many cases, increases the damaging straight line wind threat....
Don't think we'll see much down here in SEFL CCH. Line is weakening rather quickly right now.
I'm a little nervous about the High sitting out near bermuda all winter,it usually doesn't stay there all winter,with the tropical season not too far away,thats not a good place for it to sit.
CCHS, Naw I wouldnt call anyone really. The former line looks to be a big blob of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.

If a watch goes up then you might want to think about calling some ppl.

You coulda called my grandma last night! I came in and she's just sitting there and I said "the weather is about to get bad" and she was like "Oh! I thought it had already passed!" I told her the main line was about to roll through and 30 minutes later...it did.

Luckily it wasnt TO bad. She's usually on top of the weather though, scared about living in a trailer and the possibility of tornado's.
On radar, I'm not seeing the line weakening CaneWhisperer.
Behind the leading edge, there is a line of storms that is indeed strengthening because it is over a large warm water eddy. These will probably begin to lose punch as they move EWD approaching the Tampa coastline because the water is cooler as you get closer.
I see a line of strong showers and t storms developing ON the coast of Tampa
Where did everyone go? Fell silent on the boards.
good soaker in Ocala-wish it would last longer.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
===============================
At 18:00 UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12R [1003 hPa] located near 11.7S 54.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. The disturbance is reported moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast Position and Intensity
=================================
12 HRS: 12.2S 52.1E - 30 knots [Depression Tropicale]
24 HRS: 12.8S 49.7E - [Depression sur Terra]
48 HRS: 14.2S 45.9E - 25 knots [Perturbation Tropicale]
72 HRS: 16.0S 42.6E - 25 knots [Perturbation Tropicale]

Additional Information
========================
Low level circulation center is better defined on the last microwave imagery and partially exposed east of the deep convection which has rebuilt over the last 6 hours. Environment is fairly easterly sheared as the system evolves north of the upper level ridge axis. Equatorward low level inflow is weak. Potential of intensification for this system is limited. This system should keep on tracking west-southwest beyond 48 hours along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Greetings.
Sounds like some are having nasty weather there.
Never seen a tornado, and dont want to.
You all stay safe and keep an eye out for those in need too.
Here in Trinidad&Tobago we are still getting showers and cool days in the mid 80's ( cool is a relative thing ). Not usual, because by now the dryseason should have set in with a vengeance already.
Looking forward to whatever surprises the H Season will bring to the Islands north of here. Hoping it's a non-event season..........
The blob off the coast of FL near Tampa did wind up falling apart for the most part.

I think Tampa will get moderate to heavy rain at best. There is a thin line developing to the northeast of Tampa that should be making it's way towards Orlando within the next hour.

Doesnt look to severe for FL for the most part.



Good afternoon,

Here west of Orlando, getting hammered with heavy rain, lightning and windy conditions....

Orlando area will be next.......Line has shaped up well in the last hour.....Good rainfall amounts.......
Looming on our horizon in E Ctl. FL
69. P451
My god the eastern 1/3rd of the US is lit up like a christmas tree.

US Advisories

There's a big error regarding Kentucky in there but there's still bad weather in that area as well.

Overall a very busy afternoon and evening ahead.

Its over here for now......Appears that there is some redevelopment out over the gulf....wait and see on that

Orlando north should see some beneficial rains with high winds here shortly.......Would not surprise me to see T-storm warning go up here shortly.....Apopka, Winter Garden and Ocoee areas should be getting it right now.....
Back from the barns, 3:00 polo game cancelled due to rain (makes the grass slippery & horses can slip and slide - not good) overall I am at this time 4:19 disappointed with the amount of rain...we are just getting drizzle, happy to get out of work, but we need RAIN...what happen to all that color I saw in the gulf.

Surfers the south swell has arrive, but it's choppy and nasty out there. Wonder what tomorrow morning will be like - got to work, but I may be able to catch something in the late afternoon. Looking to catch some leftovers Thursday AM.
The east coast is getting hammered,from Florida to us up here in New England and we get to do this again on Friday and Saturday,stormy pattern keeps going into next week.
Looks like we got skunked regarding getting some rain. The sky is beautiful right now, very strong breeze and yes the sun is shining
Saturday's nor'easter-type storm looks to be a mainly rain event for the midatlantic now...

The forecast for my town just changed from 40% chance snow to 60% chance rain.

From the New York City discussion (just updated)
Link to new discussion

MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST...PASSING OVER...OR MOVING INTO
THE VICINITY OF THE TRI STATE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. EVEN THE
COLDEST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT
...WITH PERHAPS SOME
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INLAND DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ON SATURDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
STORM...WITH DRYING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
Barely ridable surf on my home beach SRQ/Gomex, looks like building conditions
76. P451
72. NEwxguy
The east coast is getting hammered,from Florida to us up here in New England and we get to do this again on Friday and Saturday,stormy pattern keeps going into next week.


Yeah I saw another round of similar weather. The water is welcome at the very least. Should make for a very nice spring!




75. surfmom
Barely ridable surf on my home beach SRQ/Gomex, looks like building conditions


Not sure if you are aware of this website but it's a very good one for waves!

SwellInfo

Very nice site!
The first line passed up & I'm not impressed either. They must have the gain turned up on the radar. LOL
A pre, pre frontal trough?
Possibal tornado in the piedmont of N.C. A roof was blew away and tornado like destruction path of trees,.

So far, I counted around 4tornado warnings.Next line of storms are coming.Here there is realy heavy rain with gusty winds.600people in my county are with out power.(Not tornado related)

Some areas of N.C have got around and over 5inches of rain! Flash flood warnings/watches for the mountain areas.
P451, Thanks fun site!
Getting winds over 50mph, with extreme amounts of rain.My power has blinked alot.White out conditions outside at times.I heard a roar and heard multiple trees snap.ill have to look tomarow for damage/tree fells.

I knew it was coming from a line in the mountains.The weather service gave a severe thunderstorm warning in no advance.It hit and then it got issued.
Looks like I'm proven wrong yet again. Still worried about Saturday for possible severe weather as the stronger front comes in. It will be interesting to see what happens when this front stalls over us. Maybe some good rains.
GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV)
Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.)

Link
Weatherman, I was looking forward to the Storms this weekend, but I just checked the 18z GFS and it completely weakens the front before arrival in to central-south fl. Maybe by the morning it will be predicting story conditions once again.
If this Tornado Season is any indicator. Hang on for you hats in Hurricane Season.
Actually CybrTeddy, there is a faint inverse relationship between active tornado season and hurricane season.Unless the tornado season ends early,which this one may.
89. P451
83. JFV
We odviously aren't perfect weatherman; therefore, do not feel so overwhelmingly at fault over it, alright?


There is no such thing as a perfect weatherman. We're talking about nature here...something that always throws a curveball. We're also just at the dawn of the data collection age. Sure, we've kept records for a long time but only the past decade has that collection been consistent, reliable, and plentiful.

It is going to take quite some time before our current data collection abilities allow us to paint reliable trends in weather.

It's a golden age to have all these tools at our disposal but we're all virgins as a result of the fact that we have just since entered this new age.

No reason to become discouraged.

And, as far as this season has gone, beyond the early seasons West Coast snow storms - and - the more recent Texas-to-Florida Panhandle severe weather out breaks the rest of the nation has witnessed terrible forecasting.

All this means is we don't yet understand all the data and have not been yet able to witness enough La Nina events in this modern age of data collection to be able to forecast mother nature.

I view this past winter season as a time of learning. In the future, as we continue to refine our data collection and processing there of given the leaps and bounds in computers compiling our data, we will look back on this year as...as I said... a learning year.

Nothing wrong with that, nothing wrong with poor forecasting, the idea is to learn and press forward and you must not look at this season as a failure but rather a valued learning experience.


90. P451
79. surfmom
P451, Thanks fun site!


Happy to help out. It takes some time to learn that site's interface (some things appear hidden and there's a lot of great maps out there! Plus the admin of the site is very amicable) yet once you do figure it out - it's a great site!
Looks like low pressure is developing in the SW GOM near Texas.
92. P451
Feels like I'm in for some interesting weather over night.

It's 65 and extremely humid here in East-Central-Jersey.

Yet, what piques my interest is the fact that I have observed dead calm wind - then sudden gusts to as much as 30mph then dead calm. Even odder is how they are not from the same direction. They are distinctive - South, East, West, South West. Rather odd ground turbulence .

There's a lot of energy out there I would not be surprised to be awakened by a 2 or 3am heavy thunderstorm.
Here in Hopewell,VA...we just had a line come through....absolutely no lightning or thunder....but extremely heavy rain...and winds at a constant 35-40 with a few gusts in the 50's....the worst only lasted for about 5-8 minutes....now we are getting a nice soaking rain with the occasional gust in the 20-30 range...wanted to stay up and see what mothernature had for us tonight....nothing too terrible...some wind damage and power outages....but a good amount of much needed rain for central virginia...

one thing i was watching were the clouds...for what I could see...very low and moving alot...was watching the radars and all for spinning...there was a good deal of rotation all over...but nothing too defined...with that im on to bed...later.
94. P451
93. watchingnva 5:14 AM GMT on March 05, 2008 Hide this comment.
Here in Hopewell,VA...we just had a line come through....absolutely no lightning or thunder....but extremely heavy rain...and winds at a constant 35-40 with a few gusts in the 50's....the worst only lasted for about 5-8 minutes....now we are getting a nice soaking rain with the occasional gust in the 20-30 range...wanted to stay up and see what mothernature had for us tonight....nothing too terrible...some wind damage and power outages....but a good amount of much needed rain for central virginia...

one thing i was watching were the clouds...for what I could see...very low and moving alot...was watching the radars and all for spinning...there was a good deal of rotation all over...but nothing too defined...with that im on to bed...later.


Well, that's good to hear because that same line looks just as nasty as it moves NE towards me in Jersey.

Wind is going off now gusting over 40 at times and we still are a ways off from the line. Hope it's just some nominal damage... blowing garbage cans around, snapping some small limbs.
95. P451
Guess I shouldn't go to sleep or sleep too heavily at this point...

MD issuance


____________________

* AT 251 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMDEN...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75MPH.


______
Yah, just what I want. As it is I'm now getting pre-frontal wind gusts hitting 45-50 blowing everything around and the squall line is still 30 miles to the south east.

Well, I wanted a storm...guess I'm going to get a storm.
Nice curve banding displayed by 12R

Good morning all! Can't wait for my 5K race coming this Sunday morning. At least it will be cool out for the race, the way I like it.
Very impressive cyclone. It has a very nice, well-defined outflow pattern and an obvious CDO. Could very well become the next cyclone if it avoids land interaction. Been watching this the past couple days and it certainly has not disappointed me.

Can't wait to forecast and analyze storms with you 456 this hurricane season. Still trying to learn the Dvorak technique, but I will be prepared for hurricane season.
More Tropical Info.....Center Fix......

The center of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic maybe located using:

1. Synoptic Reports

The focal point of the winds wind reported by synoptic observations. That is, buoy, ship and land reports.

The point where the lowest pressure is being reported by synoptic reports.

The point where negative pressure tendency is most.

Those three above is very useful for disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and SW North Atlantic. You will hardly use surface observations in the Tropical Atlantic. There are few buoys stationed there and the chances of a ship intersepting a tropical system is low...but not impossible.

2. QuikSCAT/ASCAT/WindSAT

All these intruments/satellites detect surface winds using remote sensing. They are very useful in the tropical Atlantic and cover a great spatial dept and resolution. The drawbacks are, QuikSCAT passes are 2-3 hrs outdtated and they donot overlap between 40N and 40S....so there are large swaths in between with the greatest width at the equator. Sometimes these swaths cover the area of interest.


3. Satellite Imagery/Dvorak Tecnique - a simple tool that locates the center as the focal point of all curve cloud bands or the cloud system center. Satellite images for the Atlantic are readily available and rarely out datated - except for satellite eclipses. The drawback is....satellite images sometimes misinterpret the center of the storm. You can have two centers within a large blow-up of the cold cloud cover - the visible and infrared centers, which maybe totally off by several miles from the geographic center.

4. Microwave imagery - the use of advance intruments upon polar orbiting satellites. There techniques peered through the cloud cover to reveal the internal structure of the system. They are readily available and almost a 100 % accurate. But each satellite only produces two useable passes a day however the fact that there are several satellites providing the information, there is usually 4 several usuable passes but there can be non at all for more than 12 hrs. Because weather in the tropics develop more slowly than their mid-latitude counterparts, this is not generally seen as a major problem. Another problem is known as polarization, where the angle of satellite passing over the storm causes the center to be distorted wrongly. Usually happens within cyclones that have large tall eye walls but can easily be corrected by other forms intruments like conventional satellite imagery. Some sensors include the TMI, SSMI and ASMU-E/R

5. Aircraft Reconnaissance - a very useful tool for weak system. It is sometimes more direct that other forms of tools. Still, this is more of Gulf of Mexico, Cairbbean Sea and SW Atlnatic tool. Flights into the Tropical Atlantic are not impossible but infrequent. The use of dropsonde, one of the tools used by aircrafts, has really revolutionize center positioning.

6. Radar Imagery - Very useful for landfalling tropical cyclones. Readily available and updates quickly..almost every 5-15 minutes. Limtited to the Bahamas, the US, aparts of Mexico, Aruba, Puerto Rico, the Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, and Bermuda. Again, the there are no landmasses in the Tropical Atlantic. I think the cape Verdes has one, not sure.

7. Numerical Models....a tool mainly use as a guide...especially in the tropical atlantic. But not all storms are detected by computers. And thier true intensity and center fix is sometimes grossly over and under estimated and several miles off. A great tool for weaker system....but as the system becomes more developed and define its safe to use other tools. This pertains to center fix only...we all know the value of numerical models when it comes to forecasting future moevement which is the next topic. Numerical models measure such things as vorticity, SLP, winds, etc.

8. Radiosonde Data/Upper Air Observations - I know we are talking about surface center fix. But these can come in handy for tracking systems that do not extend to the surface as yet. Like upper lows and tropical waves. They are very limited but useful. They can be constructed into a form that gives the vertical profile of the storm. Upper air stations include Dakar, Senegal, The Cape Verde Islands, Guadeloupe, Saint Maarten and Jamaica, just to name a few.
Can't wait to forecast and analyze storms with you 456 this hurricane season. Still trying to learn the Dvorak technique, but I will be prepared for hurricane season.

I cannot wait either. It feels like June is an eternity away.
CCHS-Do you see a significant rain event for south florida this friday?
101. hydrus 9:38 AM EST on March 05, 2008
CCHS-Do you see a significant rain event for south florida this friday?


Based upon my analysis, the heaviest rainfall will come this afternoon and late Friday night into Saturday morning for South Florida. This could change, but that is the way I'm seeing things.

CCHS-Thank you,I live near Port Charlotte.We still are way behind in the rain department.
Turning very dark outside my house right now. Hearing a few rolls of thunder, but have not seen any lightning yet. Pretty nasty looking squall is about ready to move over. FINALLY!!!
Good morning folks!
Good morning Flood! What have you been up to?
Taking a look at the radar loop, it appears that a few storms may be colliding over my area within the next 10 to 20 minutes. Bring it on.
GM Storm,models have been hinting at that storm all week,how strong do you think?
where cchs?
108. StormW 10:31 AM EST on March 05, 2008
Looks like a major storm for the Mid Atlantic and New England this weekend.


How will this storm affect South Florida? Hoping for some good rains across the state from this system.

112. MisterPerfect 10:36 AM EST on March 05, 2008
where cchs?


I live in Cooper City, FL. It's in Broward County.
Getting my company ready for the upcoming hurricane season...by the way, while I make no claims to be any sort of a met, I too am looking forward to the upcoming season, listening to you more learned folks, and continuing my educattion (does WU offer degrees?)
Storm, always a pleasure...did you get the tranny issues resolved?
I'm on the third floor down in Kendall Miami and I can see the storms coming in from the glades...gonna be wet in an hour or so down here...
Yeah...at the tune of about $2000.00

Yikes! Well, trannies don't come cheap...the bad thing is that even at that price you're not looking at a brand new out-of-the-box unit...it's a re-build
Thanks storm,this is going to be an interesting one,our river banks are pretty full after todays storm,so this weekends storm could be serious
Rain has begun to fall and the winds have increased a bit. Nice little storm. Hoping for more later today.
Good morning folks, gents, ladies, childrens, and want-to-be moderators,


Looks like the tornado outbreak for the southeast fell short of materializing; which means no fatalities......All in all it is a great thing.....Now we need to figure out where we missed the boat and why it did not occur. The more we learn the better......

The other issue with trannies is trying to get anyone to do routine service on one in a car with more than 100K miles...and that will be the end of "Flood's Auto Repair Corner" for today LOL
Hello Floodman and StormW........
Can anyone tell me how far behind South Florida is on rain? I know that the recent outbreaks have helped a little in the South East, but not nearly enough; speaking of which, did I not hear that Georgia is pushing to get the borders redrawn so that they get a piece of the Tennessee river?
Weatherboy, how are you sir?
128. Floodman 11:16 AM EST on March 05, 2008
Can anyone tell me how far behind South Florida is on rain? I know that the recent outbreaks have helped a little in the South East, but not nearly enough; speaking of which, did I not hear that Georgia is pushing to get the borders redrawn so that they get a piece of the Tennessee river?


That is true Flood. They're looking to extend the state border 1 mile to the north. Smaller odds of that happening than winning the lottery.
Actually, I saw that story and its legimate....No one ever disputed the stone placement that displayed the state boundaries. It was just picked back in the day when no one really cared. They do now! And if you read the bylaws drawn up by the states it clearly defines the longitude and latitudes which intervene in the river. I dont see why anyone would care other than hoping to financially gain by Georgia's need for water. The river is immense and should be able to help out tremendously. Obviously, from the commotion, someone, somehow stands to loose something....Question is, what?
weather can be such a localized thing,I'm about 10 miles west of boston and I'm at 44 with a light north wind,and a city 12 miles south of me is at 59 and south wind at 15 to 25
Good to see that the predicted dread weather fell short of what could have been. More to come they say ??
Its real nice here man ! heheheh
That is true Flood. They're looking to extend the state border 1 mile to the north. Smaller odds of that happening than winning the lottery.



Apparently they feel they have a legitimate beef; the borders were drawn incorrectly they say, and that the sate line was to include that stretch of the river as a natural boundary...interesting, as they have tried this in the past, obviously without success
Trinidad weather now-
81 f, cloudy
74% humid.
wind NE @ 13 mph
1015 steady press.
Showers all last night and more to come.
137. pottery 4:50 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
Trinidad weather now-
81 f, cloudy
74% humid.
wind NE @ 13 mph
1015 steady press.
Showers all last night and more to come.

What I wouldn't give for an 80 degree day.
I was just reading Hurricane Dean's report and somthing caught my attention. I remembered that upper low vividly, when some people was sayin that Dean would turn north into the Gulf. lol lol...looking forward to scenarioes like this in 08.

During this period of rapid deepening Dean’s forward motion slowed to about 15 kt; its heading, however, remained remarkably constant throughout the Caribbean as high pressure was maintained to the north of the hurricane, while a mid- to upper-level low over south Florida on 18 August retreated westward in tandem with the tropical cyclone. The center of Dean passed about 180 n mi south of Puerto Rico early on 18 August, and continued west-northwestward in the direction of Jamaica.
Floodman-I live in south west Florida and parts of our area are over 20 inches behind.
Now that this storm systems out of the way, any interesting reports on the one that will develop in the SW gulf?
Hurricane Forecaster Predicts Above Average Season

Hurricane forecasters have improved their ability to track storms but need better estimates on their severity, so people will be better prepared to evacuate, officials said.
"With track forecasting, we are making big gains,'' said Bill Read, the new director of the National Hurricane Center.
"We've done nothing with the intensity,'' he said, adding "It's the rapid changes that are the big challenge.''
Read, named permanent director last month of the Hurricane Center, is here for an annual, weeklong conference attended by roughly 200 people from 15 federal agencies that deal with hurricanes.
He noted rapid growth along the coast is complicating the evacuation process. Decisions that previously were made a day in advance might now require two days' notice to get everyone out, he said.
On average, forecasts of a hurricane's path 48 hours out have improved about 3.5 percent yearly since 1985. But predictions on their strength have improved only about 0.8 percent each year, said Mary Glackin, the Commerce Department's deputy undersecretary for oceans and atmosphere.
Better predicting intensity will provide more accurate forecasts of deadly storm surge when a hurricane blows ashore, giving emergency officials a much better idea of which areas need to be evacuated, she said.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. Colorado State University researcher William Gray is predicting an above-average season with seven hurricanes, three of them major.
The Hurricane Center won't issue its forecast until May. Director Read said it's too early to predict what the season will bring.
"The longer you try to forecast in advance, the more error you introduce,'' Read told The Associated Press before the conference. "There's normally a lot of error in those forecasts, so in our opinion, it's best to wait.''
Officials also want to better understand a hurricane's structure, to help better predict possible tornadoes when a hurricane hits, said Samuel Williamson, the head of the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research.


114. Floodman 7:39 AM PST on March 05, 2008

Getting my company ready for the upcoming hurricane season...by the way, while I make no claims to be any sort of a met, I too am looking forward to the upcoming season, listening to you more learned folks, and continuing my educattion (does WU offer degrees?)


I think you can get a Masters in Copying and Pasting.
It's hard for a boy from the mid west to fathom a 20 inch deficiency in rain for Florida...most folks think of Florida as a warm wet state
Peach, I'm very proficient at copying and pasting (what a time saver it is); as a younger man I was rather good at paste eating, but I'll not go into my habits as a kindergartner


as a younger man I was rather good at paste eating,

You mean like this Jerry?
I was a little less intense, but yes, Peach, very much like that LOL
Floodman-I have lived here over 40 years this is the 3rd worsy i,ve seen in this area.
Floodman-I have lived here over 40 years this is the 3rd worst i,ve seen in this area.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

High pressure is situated 1019 mb over Northeast Alabama. This high is producing exceptionally fair weather over the Deep South and Southeast United States. Fair weather is also over Mainland Mexico due to an upper level confluent environment and high ridging extending along the Sierra Madre Mountains. The high is also producing a weak surface pressure pattern over the Gulf resulting in light to moderate variable winds and 6-8 ft seas. Meanwhile, a zone of low cloudiness and scattered showers covers most of the Gulf of Mexico from Yucatan to Florida. This activity mainly associated with remnant moisture behind a frontal boundary extending from Guatemala at 18N/89W across the Southeast Gulf and Southern Florida.

The frontal boundary continues from Southern Florida along 30N/79W 34N/75W to a 995 mb low at 40N/77W. Deep cloudiness and shower activity is positioned along the front and 60 nmi ahead. A very deep surface ridge is centered 1032 mb near 35N/53W producing pronounce anticyclonic flow across the Atlantic between 70W and 45W from the Northeast Caribbean to 35N. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds and possible showers are seen rotating in and around the flow around the high. Fair weather seen elsewhere. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet has its axis at 250 mb from just east of the Florida Peninsula to 30W roughly between 15N and 24N with a jet max of 90 knots. No associated accompany moisture.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A steady and typical easterly flow is blowing through the Caribbean south of the large high north of the region. This is allowing 15-20 knot trades and 6-8 ft seas. These conditions should be amplified along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean Sea where the 1010 mb Colombian Low has established itself. Meanwhile, trades are advecting scattered low clouds with possible shower activity across the Eastern and Northern Caribbean. A sharp upper ridge has its axis extending from Guyana near 5N/58W to a crest at the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N/90W. The associated flow around the ridge is advecting high level moisture in the form of cirriform clouds from thunderstorm activity over Northern South America across the Caribbean south of 15N from 85W to the Tropical Atlantic.

by W456

It's a puzzlement, hydrus...the patterns are definitely changing, but the question is going to have to be is it permanent, or a blip in the numbers