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Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Jedkins01:



I will try but it will be a tough call, I don't think my house is rated for this stuff. lol


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.
In the 40,s tonight here on the plateau..I love it....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

When I used to live in Raleigh....that's how most "severe" events seemed to end up...that is except for April 16, 2011....


Here in Durham, we had flooded streets and some big trees down.
Quoting Grothar:


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.


True dat.
Quoting Grothar:


still looking like one to curve up and go North.

Post #494, there's no line of severe storms bearing down on Tampa Bay, what radar are you looking at?
the nogaps takes 90L off the east coast and misses leslie as the other models have it merging with leslie and then brings it back towards the east coast with another system behind it..and yes I know its the nogaps..

Quoting AussieStorm:

Yep, I'm here now. Anyone care to fill me in where the hot spots are right now?


Hi, Aussie. Well, 90L has finally been declared to be a dead player. Leslie is looking healthier and Michael is also doing well. Both are headed for Greenland. 91L still looks like developing TS. Two waterspouts/tornadoes hit NYC, so that's the big news of the day. The huge cold front is still making its way eastward and, so far, it looks like it hasn't been too bad in terms of severe weather. The front made it through Central AL about 2 pm with about 15 minutes of rain. It's still 79 here, so the cooler air has yet to arrive.

That's about all I know. :)
Quoting ncstorm:
the nogaps takes 90L off the east coast and misses leslie as the other models have it merging with leslie and then brings it back towards the east coast with another system behind it..and yes I know its the nogaps..

Now I've seen it all from this model!.
Quoting Grothar:


If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.


OH MY GOD I'M GONNA DIE! OH MY GOOOOOOOD!
Quoting ncstorm:
the nogaps takes 90L off the east coast and misses leslie as the other models have it merging with leslie and then brings it back towards the east coast with another system behind it..and yes I know its the nogaps..



How would I know that the NOGAPS would try to resurrect 90L?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now I've seen it all from this model!.


yeah, its the only model that has it missing Leslie..I will say though the CMC was showing this earlier this week but had it coming back towards GA/SC
Heavy rains associated with Leslie are approaching to Bermuda.

LOL , to you storm hype . It's my opinion . And we all have them . The way this season is going anything can happen , and everybody should know that , we still have the rest of September , October, and November to go thru . Nobody knows what Mother Nature is going to throw at us , remember SHE'S in charge.
Quoting Swede38:

close TO YOU IN nchapel hills
Cheers


Well, howdy neighbor. There's a few of us here, mostly Fran survivors :)
Nature ain't no mother to me.Especially after what "It's" thrown my way this year..I should of know this years weather was going to be whacky when we had 3 thunderstorms in January with humidity..yes moderate to high humidity levels in January..we've had a thunderstorm in all months this year with the worst of them being in June...
Quoting Grothar:


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.


Yeah and one more thing if you could record it so we can hear you scream like a girl :)
so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice still plummeting


The further it goes down, the greater the "recovery" we'll see in the next year or two!
Quoting Jedkins01:
Guise its time to hunker down! A monumental line of thunderstorms is screaming into Tampa Bay, we are doom!


I couldn't see anything on Tampa Radar.
Quoting windshear1993:
so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down

LOL, I guess you think this season is a bust also. We are not even at the peak of the season yet and you think it's over. Ok bye bye, Enjoy your winter, don't freeze.
thunderboomers and downpours beginning in wilmington nc
Quoting sar2401:


Hi, Aussie. Well, 90L has finally been declared to be a dead player. Leslie is looking healthier and Michael is also doing well. Both are headed for Greenland. 91L still looks like developing TS. Two waterspouts/tornadoes hit NYC, so that's the big news of the day. The huge cold front is still making its way eastward and, so far, it looks like it hasn't been too bad in terms of severe weather. The front made it through Central AL about 2 pm with about 15 minutes of rain. It's still 79 here, so the cooler air has yet to arrive.

That's about all I know. :)

Hey, thanks for the quick update. Glad this event hasn't been as bad as it was looking when I went to be last night.
Quoting windshear1993:
so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down


Not hot enough for ya?
Quoting Grothar:
recurve not a done deal yet.
Quoting windshear1993:
so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down

Ok, bye.
In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I couldn't see anything on Tampa Radar.

I think he was kidding, can't read radar, wishcasting, or is in some other city called Tampa. :)
Quoting K8eCane:
thunderboomers and downpours beginning in wilmington nc

Hold on tight, it's going to get quiet bumpy.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Hold on tight, it's going to get quiet bumpy.




im holdin on aussie
Front came through here in Haverhill, MA. For as much action as some have gotten from it, we got a bit of rain and almost no wind, and no lightning to speak of. Rather anticlimactic given what others have experienced with this same system.
LOL. I love all of these inane "ice free inx years" posts. Guess you missed the part where there was a storm that broke up ice so it didn't show on satellite it didn't melt overnight.

Quoting percylives:


Over 20% below the old record low. Where will it stop this year? It is really looking like an ice free late summer Arctic Ocean in just 3 years.

One good thing to think of. Since the sun is so low in the sky on this date most of the radiation will bounce off the water almost as well as it would bounce off the sea ice. Very little heating going on.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

90L was on its death-bed when I wrote that discussion very early this morning (hence that discussion has some last words on it)...but yes now its gone...
It may be absorbed by a tiny, tiny remnant of Jose somewhere near Finland in 3 weeks.
Dry air and cool temps in gulf will limit any big storms forming,Isaac was a perfect example.Cat 1 or lower about all for rest of season.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey, thanks for the quick update. Glad this event hasn't been as bad as it was looking when I went to be last night.


You're welcome. Of the two "tonadoes" in NYC, one was clearly a waterspout that moved on land and the other was supposedly an F1, although the video I've seen looks like much less than an F1. To read the news, you'd think they were both F5's. I wonder if it has anything to do with mst major news networks being located in NYC? :)

The front basically washed out over us. Had some ominious looking clouds, a few 20 mph wind gusts, and some heavy rain for about 15 minutes. That was it.

Former 90L died with a whimper. I thought it might cause some problems for the folks in the Florida Panhandle but it just gave them some additional rain. I hope it's finally done for, although the NOGAPS wants to bring it to life again in the Atlantic. If that happens, I'm going to drive to Miami and strangle the first person I see at the NWS. Probably be the receptionist with my luck. :)
Quoting goalexgo:
It may be absorbed by a tiny, tiny remnant of Jose somewhere near Finland in 3 weeks.


Or maybe Helene's remnant is still wandering around somewhere.
Quoting stormpetrol:
In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.

In theory, something should happen, either in the Gulf or the SW Caribbean. After what I've seen with Ernesto and his many lives, I'm not impressed so far, but things should change.
Quoting NoloContendere:
LOL. I love all of these inane "ice free inx years" posts. Guess you missed the part where there was a storm that broke up ice so it didn't show on satellite it didn't melt overnight.



but it did melt. The first storm caused a big loss, churned up the water and brought warmer water up. This storm will do something similar.
Quoting stormpetrol:
In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.

I wouldn't count on it.

Backing away from the keyboard for the night. Everyone take care.
Quoting AegirsGal:
Front came through here in Haverhill, MA. For as much action as some have gotten from it, we got a bit of rain and almost no wind, and no lightning to speak of. Rather anticlimactic given what others have experienced with this same system.

Glad to hear it. It was pretty much the same down here too. Looks like there were some severe thunderstorms and a few weak tornadoes in VA and NYC, but most areas seem to have gotten off with very little severe weather compared to what was forecast yeaterday. The bulk shear and CAPE numbers were both diving when I looked earlier today, so I was hoping this would't turn out too bad.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N22W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 14N23W. THE WAVE/LOW ARE WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE LOW CENTER EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MID/LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW/WAVE MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KT.
me too, gnight all!
Quoting sar2401:

In theory, something should happen, either in the Gulf or the SW Caribbean. After what I've seen with Ernesto and his many lives, I'm not impressed so far, but things should change.

Isaac never got his act together until just before landfall when it was to late. He never became vertically stacked. If he had of became vertically stacked earlier than he did, He might not of made it into the GOM.
Quoting originalLT:
Post #494, there's no line of severe storms bearing down on Tampa Bay, what radar are you looking at?
I guess you guys aren't picking up on the local sarcasm lol. We were expecting a bit more weather right now than we're getting.
Quoting indianrivguy:
me too, gnight all!

yeah, over and out!
Quoting AussieStorm:


I couldn't see anything on Tampa Radar.



Well I was applying sarcasm^7 to the comment if that helps ;)
Quoting stormpetrol:
In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.
That is what has been missing this season. No powerhouses. The storms have been having trouble getting their act together...to the point of accusations of a govt. conspiracy to secretly a alter the storms.
Love the climate right now it looks like fall down here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't count on it.


Funny you should psot that graph now, TA. The general instability numbers have been low now for months in the Southeast as well. Even when we were getting pounded with heavy rain and thunderstorms from ex-Isaac/pre-90L, the vertical shear and CAPE didn't support the weather we actually experiencing. I don't know what will actually happen the rest of the season, but something strange is going on. Our only major developed north of 30 degrees, and storms that were in supposedly good environments did nothing. Very odd.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I guess you guys aren't picking up on the local sarcasm lol. We were expecting a bit more weather right now than we're getting.

I think everyone was expecting more than what they got.
555. maeko
Quoting Chicklit:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N22W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 14N23W. THE WAVE/LOW ARE WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE LOW CENTER EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MID/LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW/WAVE MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KT.


WoW talk about a Choo-Choo Train! Just LOOK at all that rolling out of Africa!
Quoting allancalderini:
Love the climate right now it looks like fall down here.

Still waiting for the cooler air down here in central AL. It's down to the low 60's in north AL but it's still 77 and humid here. The cool air seems to be taking its time getting here.
Quoting unknowncomic:
That is what has been missing this season. No powerhouses. The storms have been having trouble getting their act together...to the point of accusations of a govt. conspiracy to secretly a alter the storms.


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.
Gotcha, FlWeatherFreak91. Was read out of context.(Responding to post #548)
Quoting NoloContendere:
LOL. I love all of these inane "ice free inx years" posts. Guess you missed the part where there was a storm that broke up ice so it didn't show on satellite it didn't melt overnight.


You're right, it didn't melt overnight. It's been melting for decades now. There has not been a storm for decades. The storm earlier this summer played a role, but without the significant warming of the Arctic Ocean and melting of multiyear ice, the storm's effect would have been greatly reduced.

I have strong suspicions that those actually following the arctic sea ice didn't "[miss] the part where there was a storm that broke up the ice." They also probably didn't miss the part where we know that the storm couldn't melt the millions of cubic feet of ice that we are missing.
Quoting maeko:


WoW talk about a Choo-Choo Train! Just LOOK at all that rolling out of Africa!

All soon to be turning around and attacking Spain by the looks of things. The recurve has been working well this season.
561. maeko
Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.


What does 'simpleton' mean?
Quoting maeko:


What does 'simpleton' mean?


Someone who's ignorant. It's a nicer way of saying "you're an idiot".
Quoting sar2401:

All soon to be turning around and attacking Spain by the looks of things. The recurve has been working well this season.


It wasn't around earlier in the season. Definitely not to the extent it was in 2011 or 2010.
564. maeko
Quoting sar2401:

All soon to be turning around and attacking Spain by the looks of things. The recurve has been working well this season.


Maybe that will be good for the wildfires Spain has been having?
Quoting AussieStorm:

I think everyone was expecting more than what they got.



When is hurricane. Season for you guys?
Whoa... Showers are strengthening while moving ashore here. Kind of odd for this time of day.
Because no one else has bothered to do it:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LESLIE HAS AGAIN BECOME ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 58 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH
FASTER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS LESLIE UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH THAT IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FOLLOW IT AND MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...THE 72-120 HR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MUCH FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

LESLIE CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WARM WATER/LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND ISSUES WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN 6 HR AGO...SO THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KT IN 48 HR. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE
BY 72-96 HR...WITH LESLIE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PROCESS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 30.1N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.2N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 35.3N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 49.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 51.5N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 090236
TCDAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
BEEN DECREASING. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CI
NUMBER GIVEN BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT. MICHAEL COULD FLUCTUATE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THEIR CURRENT STATES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
MICHAEL BY 48 HOURS...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...FASTER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY DAY 4...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
IF THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS...OR THE COLD FRONT TRAILING LESLIE...AS SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF.

MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED ITS MOTION OF 335/5 KT...BUT THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW-/MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IS INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TO THE WEST THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION
IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/TVCA CLUSTERING AT THOSE
TIMES. THE MODELS COME BACK TO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS ONCE
MICHAEL IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH...EVEN THOUGH THAT IS A CASE WHERE YOU WOULD
NORMALLY EXPECT TO SEE BIGGER TIMING DIFFERENCES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 33.4N 42.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 33.8N 42.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.9N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 34.1N 45.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 35.2N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.

No, no, Kori, it was HAARP. You can look it up. It's a giant machine, funded by the Illuminati, that can do anything from alter weather to make milk go sour in your fridge. It's a well known fact, except to people like you. I can help you understand better though. Just buy one of my patented Tin Foil Hats for the low, low price of $59.99 and it will all become clear. If you act within the next two hours, I'll throw in a Ginsu knife for free. :)
570. maeko
Quoting KoritheMan:


Someone who's ignorant. It's a nicer way of saying "you're an idiot".


Oh...for some reason I thought it was something worse than 'idiot'...
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Whoa... Showers are strengthening while moving ashore here. Kind of odd for this time of day.

It's just 90L's death rattle. Enjoy the rain while you can get it.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Because no one else has bothered to do it:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LESLIE HAS AGAIN BECOME ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 58 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH
FASTER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS LESLIE UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH THAT IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FOLLOW IT AND MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...THE 72-120 HR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MUCH FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

LESLIE CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WARM WATER/LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND ISSUES WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN 6 HR AGO...SO THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KT IN 48 HR. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE
BY 72-96 HR...WITH LESLIE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PROCESS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 30.1N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.2N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 35.3N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 49.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 51.5N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




You no if they wanted too go read it they could go to the nhc site and and it will be right there waiting for the. Just saying. But I Gus's it is all so nic too post it on the blogs has well so they can see it here too
Quoting maeko:


What does 'simpleton' mean?


A person who is felt to be deficient in judgment, good sense, or intelligence; a fool
Quoting Tazmanian:




You no if they wanted too go read it they could go to the nhc site and and it will be right there waiting for the. Just saying. But I Gus's it is all so nic too post it on the blogs has well so they can see it here too


Well that's true, but I was bored. :P
Quoting sar2401:

No, no, Kori, it was HAARP. You can look it up. It's a giant machine, funded by the Illuminati, that can do anything from alter weather to make milk go sour in your fridge. It's a well known fact, except to people like you. I can help you understand better though. Just buy one of my patented Tin Foil Hats for the low, low price of $59.99 and it will all become clear. If you act within the next two hours, I'll throw in a Ginsu knife for free. :)


Sounds good to me. I want a tin foil hat!
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF LESLIE NOW MOVING OVER BERMUDA...
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8
Location: 30.1°N 62.6°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

...MICHAEL FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MONDAY...
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8
Location: 33.4°N 42.4°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
Quoting maeko:


Maybe that will be good for the wildfires Spain has been having?

I read those were caused by all the ATM's in Spain overheating at once as Spainards try to get evey Euro thay can before Spain reverts to the peseta again....but I could be wrong. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.

I blame the Aliens.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sounds good to me. I want a tin foil hat!


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.
Quoting AussieStorm:

LOL, I guess you think this season is a bust also. We are not even at the peak of the season yet and you think it's over. Ok bye bye, Enjoy your winter, don't freeze.
im just doubting we will see anything significant just small weak boring systems we barely got a major hurricane..hurricane michael got lucky lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sounds good to me. I want a tin foil hat!

OK then, good man. Use your credit card and go to www.simpletons.com. You should receive your patented Tin Foil Hat in about three weeks. We can have it to you by Monday for the nominal extra charge of $19.99, so you can better understand what's happening in a timely manner. You'll have to excuse me now, I need to run to the bank and make a deposit from all the money the suck....er, customers have been sending to get their patented Tin Foil Hat. Supplies are limited, so act fast! :)
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie for 9Sept12amGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day as a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
8Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage over Bermuda (bottom,left,BDAdumbbell)
8Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 60miles(96kilometres)ENEast of Bermuda (right,dumbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,dumbbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie was heading for a 10Sept.12:30am passage 96miles(154kilometres)East of Bermuda in ~21&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste 32.249n64.854w, 32.57n63.653w-32.572n63.393w, 32.387n62.5w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w-28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 29.0n62.5w-29.7n62.6w, 29.0n62.5w-32.557n63.023w, 32.368n64.647w-32.557n63.023w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting windshear1993:
im just doubting we will see anything significant just small weak boring systems we barely got a major hurricane..hurricane michael got lucky lol


Blame it on global warming...

I, for one, am happy I do not have to deal with a Major Hurricane...
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice still plummeting
Let them eat earthcakes ...






Quoting Dakster:


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.

No, homemade tin foil hats are not as strong as my patented Tin Foil Hat. You'd just be wasting $2.00 at the grocery store, and then there's all that complicated folding and stuff. Send me $59.99 for my patented Tin Foil Hat and be assured you're getting the real thing, not some sloppy homemade job. :)
Leslie:

Quoting windshear1993:
im just doubting we will see anything significant just small weak boring systems we barely got a major hurricane..hurricane michael got lucky lol

No problem then, check back occasionally and we'll let you know when a major is bearing down on NC. :)
Quoting Dakster:


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.


Sadly I don't. It's always been fascinating to me though.
Quoting sar2401:

No problem then, check back occasionally and we'll let you know when a major is bearing down on NC. :)
its a good thing i dont live on the coast i live in charlotte nc and we barely get bad floods from tropical systems but ill be back ocasionally to see if something ominous is outhere im not about to follow another ernesto helene and leslie yawnnnnn
Quoting Dakster:


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.


Is that served with rice?
i hope 91l becomes a beautiful major hurricane and goes out to see i refuse to follow another chris and kirk lol
Isaac Part trois!

Quoting Grothar:


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.



Thank you, I will try my best, and I figure if I close my eyes at least the wind velocity will be zero since I can't see which direction its blowing...
Quoting Grothar:
Isaac Part trois!


Gro, don't be talking like that. Planes fly to Norway every day...and I'm armed! :)
Quoting windshear1993:
i hope 91l becomes a beautiful major hurricane and goes out to see i refuse to follow another chris and kirk lol

I really don't think you have a say..
Quoting Jedkins01:



Thank you, I will try my best, and I figure if I close my eyes at least the wind velocity will be zero since I can't see which direction its blowing...


If you scream loudly enough, you won't be able to hear the wind.
Quoting sar2401:

Gro, don't be talking like that. Planes fly to Norway every day...and I'm armed! :)


lol.
Quoting Grothar:


If you scream loudly enough, you won't be able to hear the wind.


That's true! Also if I open my windows it will allow air to flow freely so the wind won't be so angry and then it won't scream so loud...
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.
Atlantic ACE continues to climb rapidly and will likely surpass 70 units tomorrow.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


A person who is felt to be deficient in judgment, good sense, or intelligence; a fool



Actually, being a fool isn't on the far end of intelligence. Foolishness is the act of making a poor decision in spite of intelligence. To be a fool would be to go along with a bad decision even though you have the intelligence and knowledge to know that decision is wrong. Foolishness and pride are often best buddies.

When an intelligent person makes a very poor decision, it is foolishness, when a well, not so smart person makes a bad decision "WHELL HEYYY GUISE WOUTCHH THIS(beer in hand)" its ignorance.
Quoting Grothar:
Isaac Part trois!


possible,,, cut off low in the GOM, has happened before.
Quoting popartpete:
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.


Sounds reasonable to me. Even in my previous reincarnations when I was Napolean, I thought the same thing.
Quoting popartpete:
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.

Send me his name and e-mail address and I'll send him a link for my patented Tin Foil Hat. If you also buy one, you'll have a better understanding of chem trails and red suns.
Quoting sar2401:

Send me his name and e-mail address and I'll send him a link for my patented Tin Foil Hat. If you also buy one, you'll have a better understanding of chem trails and red suns.

This made me lol.
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, being a fool isn't on the far end of intelligence. Foolishness is the act of making a poor decision in spite of intelligence. To be a fool would be to go along with a bad decision even though you have the intelligence and knowledge to know that decision is wrong. Foolishness and pride are often best buddies.

When an intelligent person makes a very poor decision, it is foolishness, when a well, not so smart person makes a bad decision "WHELL HEYYY GUISE WOUTCHH THIS(beer in hand)" its ignorance.


Funny, but true. In the early 90's I was speaking with a woman to held a doctorate in Psychology and Abnormal Behavior. Educated and spoke quite well. She tried to explain to us that she believed certain Asian countries were killing off their elderly population. That is where the term Euthanasia came from. Say the world slowly three times.

I know I joke a lot, but this is a true story. We were all stunned. She is still teaching at a university.
I guess some of the earlier bloggers may have been right. I don't see any evidence of the models recurving 91L.

.
Quoting popartpete:
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.


Ugh, I hate tornadic looking clouds! Well, near me anyway ;p

You know, people like that just depress me. Because I've known people who didn't go to college or uni (or couldn't really) for various reasons, but studied things on their own out of love for the subject. They were just as knowledgeable as someone who'd gone to college, and sometimes even more so. But people like that, give others a bad name, who have independently studied without degree. But if your premise is paranoia or such and not learning a subject out of love and interest...I guess it's a bit suspect...especially if calling yourself a scientist still! But it does give independent 'actual' learning a bad rap :(
Quoting Grothar:


She tried to explain to us that she believed certain Asian countries were killing off their elderly population. That is where the term Euthanasia came from. Say the world slowly three times.
*gasp*

Oh my...
Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.

Uhm...dry air and wind shear?
Oh and really Dr M..."Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days"

Geesh, Michaels been our best looking system this year (size matters not!). To give him such a bleak send off!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Uhm...dry air and wind shear?


I want to look beyond that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I want to look beyond that.

There's nothing there worth looking for. We've not gotten any notable tropical cyclones in the tropics because there has been an abundance of dry air, wind shear, and fast trade winds.
Quoting sar2401:

Send me his name and e-mail address and I'll send him a link for my patented Tin Foil Hat. If you also buy one, you'll have a better understanding of chem trails and red suns.
Trouble is he ALREADY HAS ONE!! On the hottest day of the summer, he wears a camo army hat with a metal underneath part. His friend lets him live in the back storage room in his building -no heating or air conditioning- and he spends his time hacking off my internet connection looking up doomsday sites and trying to explain to me his outlandish theories!
Quoting Skyepony:


I got some gusty winds when that front came through Skye..not sure of mph but it trashed (more like beat it up than trashed) a nice azalea I had planted last week.. :(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's nothing there worth looking for. We've not gotten any notable tropical cyclones in the tropics because there has been an abundance of dry air, wind shear, and fast trade winds.


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P
Quoting Grothar:
I guess some of the earlier bloggers may have been right. I don't see any evidence of the models recurving 91L.


No, nothing to see there....just keep moving.
Quoting pcola57:


I got some gusty winds when that front came trough Skye..not sure of mph but it trashed (more like beat it up than trashed) a nice azalea I had planted last week.. :(


Looks like steady 25mph in Ceder Key right now.

It should recover. Hope it's not so bad you're resetting the root ball & trimming broken limbs.
Quoting popartpete:
Trouble is he ALREADY HAS ONE!! On the hottest day of the summer, he wears a camo army hat with a metal underneath part. His friend lets him live in the back storage room in his building -no heating or air conditioning- and he spends his time hacking off my internet connection looking up doomsday sites and trying to explain to me his outlandish theories!

That's his problem then. With one of my patented Tin Foil Hats, he will soon be living large as a chem trail expert on the lecture circuit. Those army camo hats with the metal plates are very poor imitations of my patented Tin Foil Hat.
Quoting sar2401:

That's his problem then. With one of my patented Tin Foil Hats, he will soon be living large as a chem trail expert on the lecture circuit. Those army camo hats with the metal plates are very poor imitations of my patented Tin Foil Hat.


lmao

ahahaha
Quoting Grothar:


Funny, but true. In the early 90's I was speaking with a woman to held a doctorate in Psychology and Abnormal Behavior. Educated and spoke quite well. She tried to explain to us that she believed certain Asian countries were killing off their elderly population. That is where the term Euthanasia came from. Say the world slowly three times.

I know I joke a lot, but this is a true story. We were all stunned. She is still teaching at a university.

I think I remember having her for one of my Abnormal Psych classes because she was....so abnormal. :)
.


After the storm
Is this Leslie's eye coming into view of Bermuda radar??

A shallow earthquake hit southwestern China on Friday, killing at least 24 people, state media said. 150 people were also hurt in the quake that hit Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. An official from the Yunnan provincial government earthquake office, who like many Chinese bureaucrats would not give his name, earlier said 20 people had died. The quake destroyed or damaged 20,000 homes. Buildings in rural areas in China are often constructed poorly. In 2008, a severe earthquake in Sichuan province, just north of Yunnan, killed nearly 90,000 people, with many of the deaths blamed on poorly built buildings, including schools. The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude 5.6 quake hit at a depth of 9.8 kilometers (6.1 miles). Shallower earthquakes often cause more damage than deeper ones.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is this Leslie's eye coming into view of Bermuda radar??


Its either its eye or a close rain band.
Quoting KoritheMan:


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P

The first one obviously.
Quoting Skyepony:
A shallow earthquake hit southwestern China on Friday, killing at least 24 people, state media said. 150 people were also hurt in the quake that hit Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. An official from the Yunnan provincial government earthquake office, who like many Chinese bureaucrats would not give his name, earlier said 20 people had died. The quake destroyed or damaged 20,000 homes. Buildings in rural areas in China are often constructed poorly. In 2008, a severe earthquake in Sichuan province, just north of Yunnan, killed nearly 90,000 people, with many of the deaths blamed on poorly built buildings, including schools. The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude 5.6 quake hit at a depth of 9.8 kilometers (6.1 miles). Shallower earthquakes often cause more damage than deeper ones.


On the Summary page Skye, the update shows 80 now confirmed dead..so sad..
Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The first one obviously.


Wrong.
Quoting KoritheMan:


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P

As TA said obviously the first one, the second one does sound good.
Quoting Skyepony:
A shallow earthquake hit southwestern China on Friday, killing at least 24 people, state media said. 150 people were also hurt in the quake that hit Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. An official from the Yunnan provincial government earthquake office, who like many Chinese bureaucrats would not give his name, earlier said 20 people had died. The quake destroyed or damaged 20,000 homes. Buildings in rural areas in China are often constructed poorly. In 2008, a severe earthquake in Sichuan province, just north of Yunnan, killed nearly 90,000 people, with many of the deaths blamed on poorly built buildings, including schools. The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude 5.6 quake hit at a depth of 9.8 kilometers (6.1 miles). Shallower earthquakes often cause more damage than deeper ones.


It always makes me so sad when something like a 5.6 quake causes so much death and destruction, as that's not a very large quake, even at a shallow depth. And in China, where there has been so much growth, that so many still live in buildings unsuitable. Even though I know the mere mention of universal standards prob shouts as evil socialism to many Americans. I can understand complacency in places that get the odd mid-continental shelf earthquake..but not in places prone to them or places in the vincinity. I dunno if I'm making my point clear, as is nearly 6am and about to go to bed (I work late shifts on the weekends, ok! LOL)
Quoting wxchaser97:

As TA said obviously the first one, the second one does sound good.


I think you misunderstand. I'm not looking for an excuse to sound wordy. I'm looking for an excuse to be in-depth, since as I understand it, that's what a disseration is.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think you misunderstand. I'm not looking for an excuse to sound wordy. I'm looking for an excuse to be in-depth.

I think the second one sounds really detailed/ more official. Saying the first one was sarcasm.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think the second one sounds really detailed/ more official. Saying the first one was sarcasm.


I knew Cody was being sarcastic, but I wasn't sure about you. :P
Quoting KoritheMan:


I knew Cody was being sarcastic, but I wasn't sure about you. :P

He always is, at least in chat it seems. I knew the second one is better and wanted to see if you thought I was serious or not.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I knew Cody was being sarcastic, but I wasn't sure about you. :P

I'm also finally beginning to write my tropical blog,once again since it is too late with out my forecast graphic.
Still doesn't have a solid core and she needs more convection.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think the second one sounds really detailed/ more official. Saying the first one was sarcasm.


I'm used to Cody being sarcastic. I'm not used to you being sarcastic. Can't a fault a man for a weakness, can you? :)
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm also finally beginning to write my tropical blog,once again since it is too late with out my forecast graphic.


Cool.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm used to Cody being sarcastic. I'm not used to you being sarcastic. Can't a fault a man for a weakness, can you? :)

You're correct, Cody has been at WU for a while and I've only been posting for about 2 months.
No one can beat the sarcasm of Grothar's post in post 612, though. Definitely one for the Guiness book.
It's noted for the record that yet another low of tropical origins has found it's way to North Florida, even though Isaac had to loop 1500 miles around to have one of his parts wound up there. Somebody dropped a powerful magnet on Lake City this year.
Quoting KoritheMan:
No one can beat the sarcasm of Grothar's post in post 612, though. Definitely one for the Guiness book.

I just now saw that, that is good.
Not much change for Michael, but it is still moving north-northwestward.

Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.


It's El Nino...lol. Made a post about it yesterday. The Atlantic has characteristics of El Nino, not of neutral or La Nina conditions. The Pacific may not be fully ready to be in an absolute El Nino, but anomalies have been warm enough to alter the Atlantic season.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.


I'm thinking that it's the remnants of El Nino as it does take time for El Nino to slowly step down. Just for some evidence, Ernesto in early August was completely unable to strengthen all the way up until pretty much Mexico due to strong trade winds. While Isaac had similar problems, he still managed to get near hurricane status before landfall on Haiti, so conditions are slowly getting better.
nice surge of fall like air

latest surface skin temp °C

Here is a different view of Leslie.

If your asked To log in, the user name and password are both guest.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE WAVE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Current dewpoint is 46!

Our summer night dewpoints are usually 70-74
We are getting pounded here in Gainesville Fl right now!
Thunder is shaking the house...
waves on top of waves

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FLZ031-036-040-090715-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-MARION-
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 AM EDT...

AT 226 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND MICANOPY...GAINESVILLE...ARCHER...ROCHELLE...NEWNA NS
LAKE...GAINESVILLE AIRPORT...BROOKER...ORANGE HEIGHTS AND WALDO
THROUGH 315 AM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2946 8241 2948 8241 2948 8246 2951 8256
2953 8257 2954 8260 2995 8229 2976 8207
2943 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 238DEG 14KT 2965 8232

$$

PETERSON




Just drove through some pretty nasty weather on my way home from work in Gainesville Florida.

Quoting elvette:
waves on top of waves

Wave on top of the ITCZ.
Quoting KoritheMan:


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P



Lack of vertical instability was suggested as the reason why last season's storms were duds. The same thing has been influencing this season's storms. I saw graphs on here which clearly showed that vertical instability throughout the hurricane zone was less than the average.

Dr. Masters mentioned that this year's lack of majors was equalled only by 1934 and 1936. On another of his blogs, he showed the 5 worst drought years in the US. 1934 was the worst, 1936 was the 4th worst and 2012 the 5th worst. Obviously, the drought, or climatological factors responsible for the drought, is inhibitng intensification, if not cyclogenesis.
Quoting HurricaneDan:


After the storm


weird man.... i saw the same orange tinged rainbow here.
......................Good Morning folks!..boomers in the distance so i guess its our day for the heavy rain and lightning etc..guess i'd better walk the dogs before all that gets here....
Quoting Gearsts:
Wave on top of the ITCZ.


True but still lot of wave...
............almost here, tons of lightning in the distance,still no rain by me yet,getting breezy though, should be here soon
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR GULF...BAY...AND INLAND WATERS TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE METRO ORLANDO AND PORT CANAVERAL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRECEDE THIS ACTIVITY ANYWHERE
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICKLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
STORMS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WHEN
PASSING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
WHERE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. THESE HEAVY
AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND OTHER LOW
LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
latest surface skin temp °C




Fall is on the way, I'm saying this again, NO CANES in the CONUS this year.

What ever happend to the rocket fuel in the GOM?

IMO- Kinda like having tainted gas!

Boy I sure miss the debates, went well with my milk and cookies at night!
Quoting yonzabam:



Lack of vertical instability was suggested as the reason why last season's storms were duds. The same thing has been influencing this season's storms. I saw graphs on here which clearly showed that vertical instability throughout the hurricane zone was less than the average.

Dr. Masters mentioned that this year's lack of majors was equalled only by 1934 and 1936. On another of his blogs, he showed the 5 worst drought years in the US. 1934 was the worst, 1936 was the 4th worst and 2012 the 5th worst. Obviously, the drought, or climatological factors responsible for the drought, is inhibitng intensification, if not cyclogenesis.

We've had beaucoup storms so cyclogenesis is not a problem.
Quoting trunkmonkey:



Fall is on the way, I'm saying this again, NO CANES in the CONUS this year.

What ever happend to the rocket fuel in the GOM?

IMO- Kinda like having tainted gas!

Boy I sure miss the debates, went well with my milk and cookies at night!

I always grimaced at the rocket fuel cliche. Seems like part of a trend towards oversimplifying things.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
...GOOD Morning, got some good rain from that first line..geez all that lightning lol
morning
quite a mess of convection within the MDR this morning. It appears that 91L is being pulled towards Leslie and Michael. The area i am concerned with this morning, is the area of disturbed weather in the ITCZ near 9n 38w . it could be quite possible of some type of pertubation breaking away and form into a cyclonic entity. there is some cyclonic turning ,in this vicinity, and the area should be watched closely for signs of tropical development.
still 40%.............A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N25W TO
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 15N27W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AROUND THE OCEANIC MONSOONAL
GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
Quoting LargoFl:
...GOOD Morning, got some good rain from that first line..geez all that lightning lol


LOL I rushed to get the dogs up and outside before the first storms and then I watched them pass to my left and right at N Reddington Beach and Treasure Island. Madeira Beach is in between and only 3 miles long :)

Good morning everyone.
Quoting icmoore:


LOL I rushed to get the dogs up and outside before the first storms and then I watched them pass to my left and right at N Reddington Beach and Treasure Island. Madeira Beach is in between and only 3 miles long :)

Good morning everyone.
..LOL, i sure rushed them too..lightning flashes everywhere lol..gee
Quoting LargoFl:
...GOOD Morning, got some good rain from that first line..geez all that lightning lol


Good morning to you too, indeed rainfall is very heavy and lightning pretty intense too. These cells are heavier/stronger than they look as usual due to a very tropical environment, PW is 2.2 to 2.4 inches and warm air extends high through the column, such a setup "fools" the radar into thinking activity is weaker than it is.

The problem is the local radar already has the upgrade but we don't get to see the change ourselves to the NWS radar until all are upgraded by sometime next year I think. The upgrade though should deal with what I call the tropical rain echo fade.
Quoting LargoFl:
..LOL, i sure rushed them too..lightning flashes everywhere lol..gee


Oh yeah there is plenty of that and I am a self admitted chicken when it comes to lightening :) Tarpon Springs is having a big line come inland that might slide down.
Quoting bappit:

We've had beaucoup storms so cyclogenesis is not a problem.


That's what I said.
Quoting icmoore:


Oh yeah there is plenty of that and I am a self admitted chicken when it comes to lightening :) Tarpon Springs is having a big line come inland that might slide down.
yes going to be one active storm day for us today til that front hopefully passes us, yesterday they were saying it might stall out over us here..we'll see what happens
Looks like our friends in Canada need to be preparing for a hit from a Cat-1 hurricane..so far anyway
hopefully none of these tw dont develop and sneak under the weakness
The EPAC wakes up again.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
RATHER DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting trunkmonkey:



Fall is on the way, I'm saying this again, NO CANES in the CONUS this year.

What ever happend to the rocket fuel in the GOM?

IMO- Kinda like having tainted gas!

Boy I sure miss the debates, went well with my milk and cookies at night!


Do you mean a major hurricane? Otherwise there are a few folks in la/ms/al that might disagree with you.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
717 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FLZ043-048>052-091200-
POLK-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-
717 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL HERNANDO...EAST
CENTRAL PINELLAS...EASTERN PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHWESTERN POLK
AND SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TARRYTOWN TO
VENETIAN ISLES...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DADE CITY TO DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH...WILL
AFFECT TARRYTOWN...DADE CITY NORTH...DADE CITY...CARROLLWOOD...TOWN
N COUNTRY...BRANDON...PLANT CITY...AND NEW TAMPA...UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 240 AND 266.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

&&
That line up north of me around Tarpon Springs is still a healthy one and looks to be beefing up :)
Quoting icmoore:
That line up north of me around Tarpon Springs is still a healthy one and looks to be beefing up :)
yeah from there down to palm harbor are really getting it pretty hard
8 AM TWO stays at 40%.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
Link

Tampa radar.
81 in WPB on Wednesday!!!!:)
Quoting aspectre:
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneLeslie for 9Sept12amGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day as a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
8Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage over Bermuda (bottom,left,BDAdumbbell)
8Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 60miles(96kilometres)ENEast of Bermuda (right,dumbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,dumbbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie was heading for a 10Sept.12:30am passage 96miles(154kilometres)East of Bermuda in ~21&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste 32.249n64.854w, 32.57n63.653w-32.572n63.393w, 32.387n62.5w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w-28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 29.0n62.5w-29.7n62.6w, 29.0n62.5w-32.557n63.023w, 32.368n64.647w-32.557n63.023w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
This is so helpful. I cant begin to thank you enough.
Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.

Good morning Ted. Hope everything at your house is ok.
Good morning all. :)
Hello Leslie....




Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.

Are those storms the remnants of Isaac or the front?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.

Did it actually hit the house or a near miss? I'm hoping it was a near miss. I had one from pre-90L and it popped half the circuit breakers all the GFI outlets in the rig.
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Are those storms the remnants of Isaac or the front?

A mixture but basically the front. The front will eventually move through, but it's slowed way down over FL, so it will be another day at least before the storms end and drier air gets to central FL.
Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated

Glad to see you can now type like a regular guy again. I'm assuming you got it for your birthday, so Happy Birthday as well. :)
The 00Z is WOW!!!
Good morning, fellow bloggers.
It's 63 degrees right now in central AL. I know that may not sound like a big deal to those of you in more northern climes, but it's the lowest temperature we've had since mid-June. I finally got to turn the A/C off and open the windows. It's sunny and going to be a beautiful day. I hope it's a good day for all of you too.
Mostly
Sunny
High: 91 °F
Quoting sar2401:
Good morning, fellow bloggers.
It's 63 degrees right now in central AL. I know that may not sound like a big deal to those of you in more northern climes, but it's the lowest temperature we've had since mid-June. I finally got to turn the A/C off and open the windows. It's sunny and going to be a beautiful day. I hope it's a good day for all of you too.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The 00Z is WOW!!!

You don't actually believe those preciptation numbers do you? Just an example, there is no rain anywhere in the Southeast except for central FL.
Hello Leslie....

G'day All
Bermuda has been spared again thanks to being such a small dot in the Atlantic.
I believe that the Bermuda radar is showing the left side of the COC, but there is no eye to speak off.
As expected winds have been relatively light with stronger gusts in squalls. Should increase as the day progresses but not to any destructive level.
looks like another massive system forming
Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks
717. Remnants of Isaac.
718. Near miss now that I've gone out and looked around, scorch marks on my grass though.
Quoting zoomiami:
Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks

Try sending a WU-Mail to WunderBlogAdmin
Quoting zoomiami:
Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks

Have you actually logged in? Sorry if that seems like a dumb question, but I've forgotten several times and seen the ads.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
717. Remnants of Isaac.
718. Near miss now that I've gone out and looked around, scorch marks on my grass though.

Take a photo and post it here. I would like to see what a scorch mark looks like. I know what burnt shoes look like after I was struck 30years ago.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
717. Remnants of Isaac.
718. Near miss now that I've gone out and looked around, scorch marks on my grass though.

Scorch marks on the grass...yeah, that would be close enough for me. My near miss split a tree about 100 feet away clean down the middle. I don't know if it's just here or what but the cloud to ground lightning has seemed unusually vicious this year.
Quoting sar2401:

Have you actually logged in? Sorry if that seems like a dumb question, but I've forgotten several times and seen the ads.


Not dumb - always start with the basics! Yes -- and I logged out and back in several times.
Quoting zoomiami:


Not dumb - always start with the basics! Yes -- and I logged out and back in several times.

Did you close your browser?
Quoting islander101010:
looks like another massive system forming

Where at? I don't see anything that looks like it's going to massive, unless you're thinking 91L is going to be a big one.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Try sending a WU-Mail to WunderBlogAdmin


Thank you Aussie -- that's what I was looking for.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you close your browser?


Yes -- I actually renewed last week, just figured it took them a few days to reset.

I sent an email -- that should do it.
Quoting zoomiami:


Not dumb - always start with the basics! Yes -- and I logged out and back in several times.

Done a cold reboot? Sometimes you get a screwed up cookie. Try a disk cleanup and remove all cookies and then log in again. Been down that road before too. :)
central atlantic vis. 91 will be another big one
Quoting bdawobbles:
Hello Leslie....

G'day All
Bermuda has been spared again thanks to being such a small dot in the Atlantic.
I believe that the Bermuda radar is showing the left side of the COC, but there is no eye to speak off.
As expected winds have been relatively light with stronger gusts in squalls. Should increase as the day progresses but not to any destructive level.

That's good to hear, considering that Bermuda was supposed to be reduced to bare rock this time last week. :) I thought Leslie was going miss Bermuda by about 100 miles so I think I was close. Going to the east side is even better. I've been to Bermuda several times to dive and, except for the prices of everything, it's a beautiful place. I've always been impressed with how well Bermuda is set up to handle tropical storms compared to what most people think of when you say tropical island.
Quoting islander101010:
central atlantic vis. 91 will be another big one

Might be, although it's still a little early to tell. If it does a quick recurve, I don't think it's going to be another Leslie though.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hello Leslie....





lucky men in Bermuda... you have rain YOU!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Take a photo and post it here. I would like to see what a scorch mark looks like. I know what burnt shoes look like after I was struck 30years ago.


I will when it's not pouring rain.
Where's the center of 91L? I see the CDO but the last fix showing 14.7 26.8 seems old. Looks like it is starting to climb Latitude a lot.
Quoting islander101010:
central atlantic vis. 91 will be another big one
Good thing Leslie got hung up out there, she was on her way to becoming a behemoth. A westward track would have proven deadly I believe.
Geez, I know there was some damage from the two waterspouts/tornadoes in the NYC area, but you'd think this was a major storm with the wall-to-wall media coverage. This would never even make much local news, let alone national, if it happened in Alabama.
Killer tornados invade NYC
Good morning. Michael's still a good looking storm, very large eye in relation to his overall size.

Quoting sar2401:

That's good to hear, considering that Bermuda was supposed to be reduced to bare rock this time last week. :) I thought Leslie was going miss Bermuda by about 100 miles so I think I was close. Going to the east side is even better. I've been to Bermuda several times to dive and, except for the prices of everything, it's a beautiful place. I've always been impressed with how well Bermuda is set up to handle tropical storms compared to what most people think of when you say tropical island.


Bermuda has 400 years of hurricane experience. Buildings are virtually all of stone with stone slate roofs. We all take it seriously and everyone works hard to secure their homes, boats and other property from damage. In the old days the warning was the roar of the ocean on the south shore, the normal clear blue water made opaque by the pink sand being washed out, and the trusted shark oil barometer. Nowadays the NHC prediction is almost a little too good as the island is battened down tight, and people have been preparing for over a week. However that is so much better than taking it too casually.
SSD Dvorak numbers are up for 91L.

09/1200 UTC 15.0N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic
Quoting msphar:
Where's the center of 91L? I see the CDO but the last fix showing 14.7 26.8 seems old. Looks like it is starting to climb Latitude a lot.

It looks like about 15n, 25w to me.
Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated


congratulations.on.your.new.key.board :-)
Quoting sar2401:
Geez, I know there was some damage from the two waterspouts/tornadoes in the NYC area, but you'd think this was a major storm with the wall-to-wall media coverage. This would never even make much local news, let alone national, if it happened in Alabama.
Killer tornados invade NYC
I suppose that's because there's an average of one tornado in NYC every ten years, while there are dozens in Alabama every year. It's no different than if, say, 8" of snow fell in Mobile; that would be the biggest local story of the year. But when that happens in Denver, it barely warrants a mention on the evening traffic report.

It's all relative...
Quoting hydrus:
Good thing Leslie got hung up out there, she was on her way to becoming a behemoth. A westward track would have proven deadly I believe.

I think that monster trough coming into the Atlantic from the east coast helped push Leslie off the east as well. I suspect that eastward trend will continue, sparing Labrador a direct hit.
Thanks SAR, that is more in line what I was guessing - even a bit further North and more west than that.
Morning all. Woke up to 59 degrees, 90% humidity with a dewpoint of 56, absolutely beautiful. Hoping the humidity doesn't get me when I start raking up the pine needles under the pines in the front.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I suppose that's because there's an average of one tornado in NYC every ten years, while there are dozens in Alabama every year. It's no different than if, say, 8" of snow fell in Mobile; that would be the biggest local story of the year. But when that happens in Denver, it barely warrants a mention on the evening traffic report.

It's all relative...

According to the news story, there have been a number of tornadoes in the NYC area in the last five years, much higher than the one in ten years average. Seriously, though, you don't think the fact that the major news networks are all based in NYC has a tiny bit to do with the media coverage?
Bernews @bernewsdotcom
BELCO confirm 2 power outages thus far. One affected 125 customers & is fixed already, other affected 35: http://bernews.com/2012/09/sundays-live-blog-tropi cal-storm-leslie/

38m Bernews @bernewsdotcom
#Bermuda Airport to close until 4pm due to #TropicalStorm #Leslie http://bernews.com/2012/09/airport-to-close-until- 4pm-today-due-to-storm/



Leslie from Bermuda.... Live stream Link

What I'm wondering about this hurricane season is if we are going to see another 18hr rapid intensification from Tropical Depression to hurricane status. 2007 had Humberto and Lorenzo, 2008 had Gustav, 2009 had Ida, 2010 had Paula, 2011 had Rina all of which went from a tropical depression to a hurricane in around 16-18 hours.
Quoting sar2401:

According to the news story, there have been a number of tornadoes in the NYC area in the last five years, much higher than the one in ten years average. Seriously, though, you don't think the fact that the major news networks are all based in NYC has a tiny bit to do with the media coverage?


I agree with Nea, Sar. It's rare to have tornados in NYC. It's comparable to snow in Atlanta, it happens occasionally and when it does it's all over the news.
TS Leslie impacting Bermuda. Live stream












Free desktop streaming application by Ustream
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I agree with Nea, Sar. It's rare to have tornados in NYC. It's comparable to snow in Atlanta, it happens occasionally and when it does it's all over the news.


Along the same note, when it snows in central Louisiana we get a mention, but having things happen in a major city where there are news crews fighting each other to carry a story means there is more coverage.
Quoting sar2401:

I think that monster trough coming into the Atlantic from the east coast helped push Leslie off the east as well. I suspect that eastward trend will continue, sparing Labrador a direct hit.
I think you are right...They should still keep an eye on it, storms are fickle..:)....Mike is still spinnin strong out there..
Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?
Never expected that little, pathetic tropical depression 13 to become this beautiful storm for this long.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Never expected that little, pathetic tropical depression 13 to become this beautiful storm for this long.

No one every expected it to become anything, Michael still defying everyone.
Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated


Awesome, and now we can read your posts better...
In Breaking News: Leslie breaks wind over Bermuda.










Quoting Neapolitan:
I suppose that's because there's an average of one tornado in NYC every ten years, while there are dozens in Alabama every year. It's no different than if, say, 8" of snow fell in Mobile; that would be the biggest local story of the year. But when that happens in Denver, it barely warrants a mention on the evening traffic report.

It's all relative...


Not nearly as big as if 8" snow fell in Miami... THAT would be interesting.
Ah well, guess I'll go rake those pine needles. I'll ask my question again later. Have a great morning, all!
There is an interesting clash of the seasons going on here.
Woohoo! Tank Rain as we say here in Bermuda. The last squall probably dropped an inch of rain.
In case you didn't know Bermuda homes have been built with water tanks as part of their foundations for centuries. As Bermuda is formed of a limestone cap and there is no above ground freshwater. Rain falling on the roof is channelled into gutters and to the tank for storage. A happy Bermudian is one who hears his overflow drain gurgling away:). I'm a happy Bermudian!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?


Two possibilities, one storm will absorb the other one OR they will rotate around each other (fujiwara).

Depends on how close in strength to each other they are and what the environmental conditions are at the time.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?

Sorry, I was watching the stream from Bermuda.

If they get close enough, we could see the Fujiwara effect take place.
Quoting bdawobbles:
Woohoo! Tank Rain as we say here in Bermuda. The last squall probably dropped an inch of rain.
In case you didn't know Bermuda homes have been built with water tanks as part of their foundations for centuries. As Bermuda is formed of a limestone cap and there is no above ground freshwater. Rain falling on the roof is channelled into gutters and to the tank for storage. A happy Bermudian is one who hears his overflow drain gurgling away:). I'm a happy Bermudian!

So you know the area where the stream I posted is coming from?
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?

Well either a Fujiwara effect happens or one of the storms absorbs the other. Sorry I didn't see your question earlier.
Convection isn't as strong as before but the whole structure is very circular.
Quoting bdawobbles:
Woohoo! Tank Rain as we say here in Bermuda. The last squall probably dropped an inch of rain.
In case you didn't know Bermuda homes have been built with water tanks as part of their foundations for centuries. As Bermuda is formed of a limestone cap and there is no above ground freshwater. Rain falling on the roof is channelled into gutters and to the tank for storage. A happy Bermudian is one who hears his overflow drain gurgling away:). I'm a happy Bermudian!
Is there any ground water on Bermuda.?..Do you chlorinate the rain water you receive.?
Quoting AussieStorm:

So you know the area where the stream I posted is coming from?


Just down de road. My home is somewhat in the lee facing generally south. My wife's garden is surviving, thankfully.
Quoting AussieStorm:
In Breaking News: Leslie breaks wind over Bermuda.












LOL!
Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.
SST Anomaly map is pretty telling. Although the Nino 3.4 region which we base the ENSO signal off is near neutral, much of the east Pacific is anomalously warm. All of this heat in the ocean works on the atmosphere to create anomalous convection, or upward motion, which lowers pressures in the region. Lower pressures over the East Pacific enhances the pressure gradient between the Azores/Bermuda high and the East Pacific (giving us stronger trade winds in the Caribbean, which disrupted Isaac and Ernesto). Also, looking at the SST Anomaly map, we can see that the SST Anomalies in the deep tropics of the Atlantic are around average to even below average which will favor less upward motion and convection there. The combination between average SST anomalies in the deep tropics of the Atlantic and the warm SST anomalies in the east Pacific work together to enhance downward motion over our tropics. Downward motion, or sinking air, will dry out the atmosphere, which explains a lot of the dry air we have seen over the Atlantic.

So, the SST anomalies do, for the most part, explain the dry air and faster trade wind issues we have been seeing so far this season. This dry air and fast trade wind flow has limited activity over the deep tropics, forcing activity to fester over the subtropics. Furthermore, the enhanced activity in the subtropics can also be attributed to the very warm SST anomalies over the subtropical region itself, as seen in the image below.

Quoting wxchaser97:
Convection isn't as strong as before but the whole structure is very circular.
Michael appears t be taking on some annular characteristics.
Quoting hydrus:
Is there any ground water on Bermuda.?..Do you chlorinate the rain water you receive.?


Generally the rainwater is fine to drink, but many people, us included, filter it as there has been an increase in heavy metal content over the years. Plus bird poo can be an issue in some areas!
Wells are used to tap into the underground brackish water lens which sits on top of the salt water groundwater under the hilly areas of the island. This can be used for washing, flushing and gardening in some cases. Government and large institutions also use reverse osmosis to make it potable. This is then trucked to homes when there is drought conditions, which occurs quite regularly in the summer months.
After missing storms for a few days TRMM...click pic to watch very large quicktime movie..

Michael
Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated


I'm going to miss your distinctive posts! And the heckling that always followed ;p
Really enjoying the effects of that huge trough! It swept a lot of nasty heat and humidity out to sea, and it scares hurricanes away. It's a beautiful day here in NJ.

I am a little worried about Leslie's track towards Newfoundland, though. I have a friend who lives there and Igor is still fresh in everyone's mind from 2010.
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

LESLIE HAS A VERY BROAD EYE AS EVIDENCED BY BERMUDA RADAR
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWED 40-45 KT WINDS...AND ENHANCED IR DATA SHOWED
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS SURROUNDING THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SINCE LESLIE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...IT MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTY RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COOLER
WATERS IT UPWELLED. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
REGAINING HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. BEYOND 48
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT LESLIE TO BE QUITE DEEP BUT
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES
OVER THE ATLANTIC. BY DAY 5 THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A
LARGE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF SCANDANAVIA.

LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INTIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/9. AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4 DAYS...THE POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE HIGHER
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 32.0N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 33.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 36.3N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 40.2N 59.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 46.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 62.0N 20.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z...MERGED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS LESLIE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 32.0°N 62.4°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

I.too.miss.the.old.islander101010.style
Quoting wxchaser97:
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS LESLIE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 32.0°N 62.4°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph



Watch Leslie here
...MICHAEL TURNS TOWARD THE WEST... ...WEAKENS A LITTLE...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 33.7°N 43.2°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
Quoting wxchaser97:
...MICHAEL TURNS TOWARD THE WEST... ...WEAKENS A LITTLE...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 33.7N 43.2W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph



HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS
MORNING...THERE SEEM TO BE SOME CHANGES OCCURRING WITHIN THE INNER
CORE OF MICHAEL. THE EYE HAS INCREASED IN DIAMETER FROM 10 TO 25
N MI AT THE SAME TIME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...POSSIBLY
INDICATIVE OF A MIXING EVENT WITHIN THE EYE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE AT 4.5 AT 1200 UTC...AND AN AVERAGE OF
RECENT ADT VALUES IS 5.2. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA
AND IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER
CORE.

RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW 275/04. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE EAST OF
MICHAEL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
NO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE CYCLONE...RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTERLY TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS... MICHAEL SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE FAST-PACED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48
HOURS AND SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH THE WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF MICHAEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARM ENOUGH...THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR IS
ABOUT TO CHANGE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR
OVER MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE CYCLONE PASSES FROM
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS TO A POSITION UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE. ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
A NARROW LAYER IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...IT COULD BE OF A
MAGNITUDE THAT WOULD INDUCE A FASTER WEAKENING THAN FORECAST. A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME BEFORE MICHAEL
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET. A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND RAPIDLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD MEAN
STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES FRONTAL AROUND 72
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND
THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 33.7N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 33.8N 43.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 34.0N 45.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 35.1N 47.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 38.1N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting AussieStorm:


Watch Leslie here

Thats a cool link.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thats a cool link.

I'm watching in tandem with the Radar
Leslie go away...
Quoting zoomiami:
Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks



WunderBlogAdmin
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thats a cool link.

Here's another link, not as good as the other one though.



FXCN31 CWHX 091200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.54 AM ADT
SUNDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT, TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.4 W, ABOUT 125 NAUTICAL MILES OR 232 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55
KNOTS (102 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB. LESLIE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 8 KNOTS (15 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 09 9.00 AM 31.5N 62.4W 987 55 102
SEP 09 9.00 PM 33.6N 62.0W 984 60 111
SEP 10 9.00 AM 35.9N 61.0W 983 60 111
SEP 10 9.00 PM 39.1N 59.4W 980 65 120
SEP 11 9.00 AM 43.0N 57.1W 980 65 120
SEP 11 9.00 PM 47.1N 54.0W 980 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 9.00 AM 52.3N 49.6W 982 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 9.00 PM 57.4N 41.9W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 9.00 AM 62.0N 32.5W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM
AND IS HINTING THAT THE STORM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. OUTFLOW IS
STILL IMPRESSIVE IN ALL QUADRANTS AND LESLIE IS MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER SST'S AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT - ALL OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM TODAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM STILL LACKS
COHESIVE INNER STRUCTURE WHICH MAY LIMIT MUCH FURTHER STRENGTHENING
DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LESLIE IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 8 KNOTS BUT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS
FORWARD SPEED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE STEERING
EFFECTS OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE U.S.
SEABOARD.

B. PROGNOSTIC

WHILE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR LESLIE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO, WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ACCELERATING THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD, THE CONSENSUS OF MOST RECENT
GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS MORE ACCELERATION IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED, BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THE RECENT TREND OF FASTER MODEL GUIDANCE, AND IF THE TREND CONTINUES
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
GUIDANCE INDICATE LESLIE WILL LIKELY BE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY THE TIME IT ENTERS CANADIAN OFFSHORE WATERS ON AND
SHOULD BE POST-TROPICAL BEFORE LANDFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS TRANSITION IT COULD STILL DELIVER WINDS AT OR
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AS IT NEARS THE PROVINCE. COMPLICATING THE
SCENARIO IS HOW MUCH THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN MARITIMES
AND NEWFOUNDLAND WILL INTERACT/MERGE WITH LESLIE DURING ITS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
09/12Z 160 140 100 150 80 20 20 80 0 0 0 0
10/00Z 170 140 100 140 80 40 40 80 0 0 0 0
10/12Z 180 150 110 150 80 70 50 80 0 0 0 0
11/00Z 190 180 130 150 90 70 60 80 30 30 10 40
11/12Z 200 190 140 150 95 80 65 80 40 40 20 40
12/00Z 210 220 150 150 100 100 80 100 20 30 40 40
12/12Z 220 240 170 160 90 100 100 100 0 0 0 0
13/00Z 240 280 180 200 80 100 120 120 0 0 0 0
13/12Z 250 280 220 220 70 90 120 120 0 0 0 0


END/BORGEL/FOGARTY


Structure of Michael remains great, but the convection has weakened which is likely why the intensity was lowered.


Two of the 6z GFS ensemble members...



Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie for 9Sept12pmGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day as a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the northernmost line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The northernmost line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
(right,free-floating blob)
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 96miles(154kilometres)East of Bermuda
9Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 120miles(193kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,free-floating blob)
9Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for 4:20pm passage 130miles(210kilometres)East of Bermuda

Copy&paste 32.572n63.393w, 32.387n62.5w, 32.557n63.023w, 32.385n62.6w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w- 28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 29.0n62.5w-29.7n62.6w, 29.7n62.6w-30.5n62.6w, 29.7n62.6w-32.385n62.6w, 32.368n64.647w-32.385n62.6w, 30.5n62.6w-31.5n62.5w, 30.5n62.6w-32.224n62.427w, 32.368n64.647w-32.224n62.427w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Latest NAM shows a low off FL SE coast at 84hrs.



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Two of the 6z GFS ensemble members...




Well the first one has a strong hurricane very close to the US and a strong trough over the Great Lakes. The second one has a storm hitting the gulf coast. I don't like either of those ensembles.
Re: The Weather/News discussion
Meteorological significance and news coverage do not match. Rare that they are even similar. Just the way it is.

For news, context rules. News outlets want to sell tickets. Yes, a city makes news. Whatever else is happening affects coverage. For example, the context of Cat 5 Rita, 2005, the "forgotten hurricane," was the K storm had hit. Again, most of you, I'll bet, can recite facts about the 2011 Spring tornadoes in Alabama and Joplin, but how about the EF 5, two high-end (190 mph) EF4s and multiple EF 3s that crossed Oklahoma one day in May? Forgotten also. Two days after Joplin, relatively few fatalities and no big city hit.

This latest severe system will be remembered for two EF0s, one a water spout that came ashore in New York, NY, and maybe for some damages near WA, DC, but not hardly for Friday's pure thunderstorm winds across the plains that caused the loss of four lives.

...

Interesting Leslie is forecast to be extratropical in 48 hrs or so. Not that that will lessen any potential impacts on Newfoundland.

Also interesting Michael is moving west.
Quoting will40:



WunderBlogAdmin



i dont even think wounderBlogAdmin is real



dr m him may be a better pick
Another 6z GFS ensemble member, this one at 288 hours. This would bring some wintry weather a little sooner than usual...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Another 6z GFS ensemble member, this one at 288 hours. This would bring some wintry weather a little sooner than usual...


I would hope that verified, better than last winter.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I would hope that verified, better than last winter.

I'm already getting excited for winter... especially after the disappointment last year. It's hard to keep my mind fully on the tropics at this point, lol.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Another 6z GFS ensemble member, this one at 288 hours. This would bring some wintry weather a little sooner than usual...

Ohhh I hope that's true after the non existing winter we had this year...
because Micheal is the deeper system, wouldn't he technicly be favored to abosrb leslie, not vise-versa?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


That doesnt mean it will snow in september in Wisconsin and Michigan....there is more to it than that line....

Thats almost certainly at best a cold rain.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm already getting excited for winter... especially after the disappointment last year. It's hard to keep my mind fully on the tropics at this point, lol.
I know.I'm done with the tropics just about.I had my fun to track this year and most of the storms have been non interesting.Bring on the cold and snow!!.
Quoting Methurricanes:
because Micheal is the deeper system, wouldn't he technicly be favored to abosrb leslie, not vise-versa?

It's more of a size issue though. Logically you would think the deeper system would win out but it's almost always the bigger one.
12Z GFS is coming out now!!:)
The 12z Best Track for 91L came out very late but here it is.

AL, 91, 2012090912, , BEST, 0, 149N, 278W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


That doesnt mean it will snow in september in Wisconsin and Michigan....there is more to it than that line....

Thats almost certainly at best a cold rain.

There's more to it, but in that case at least some people would get some snow or mix, and in the one I posted in 809 there would certainly be some people getting measurable snowfall in northern MI, northern NY, and Canada.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There's more to it, but in that case at least some people would get some snow or mix, and in the one I posted in 809 there would certainly be some people getting measurable snowfall in northern MI, northern NY, and Canada.


not really:



maybe in canada...

We arent going to go so far away from climatology to september snows this year..this isnt 1942 again.... i dont think..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm already getting excited for winter... especially after the disappointment last year. It's hard to keep my mind fully on the tropics at this point, lol.

I know how you feel, the most in one event was a mere 3"(wet).
We only had 2 1/2 inches for the whole winter!!!!.It sucked!.Every time you saw snow flakes they would melt when they hit the ground...

THIS IS THE ONLY STORM THAT HAS BEEN SO GOOD LOOKING FOR SO LONG
Quoting Dakster:


Two possibilities, one storm will absorb the other one OR they will rotate around each other (fujiwara).

Depends on how close in strength to each other they are and what the environmental conditions are at the time.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry, I was watching the stream from Bermuda.

If they get close enough, we could see the Fujiwara effect take place.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well either a Fujiwara effect happens or one of the storms absorbs the other. Sorry I didn't see your question earlier.


Thanks, I wondered about the 'F' word, but didn't want to ask that directly as I know what happens when someone does. Also wondered since I know what a Fujiwara is, if instead one could absorb the other since there is a discrepancy in size.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thanks, I wondered about the 'F' word, but didn't want to ask that directly as I know what happens when someone does. Also wondered since I know what a Fujiwara is, if instead one could absorb the other since there is a discrepancy in size.


Also wondered if they would 'bounce' off each other. Appreciate the answers!
Quoting Tazmanian:



i dont even think wounderBlogAdmin is real



dr m him may be a better pick


WunderBlogAdmin
WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by our employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
We only had 2 1/2 inches for the whole winter!!!!.It sucked!.Every time you saw snow flakes they would melt when they hit the ground...



Isnt that what snowflakes are supposed to do?
Oh yeah, i live in GA...

Quoting wxchaser97:

I know how you feel, the most in one event was a mere 3"(wet).


That would make my snow year....3" is enough to cover my grass and its a big snow event if i get that much.
Long range GFS says CV season comes to an early close....shows even stronger cold fronts coming through as well. Conditions have been pretty horrible in the Atlantic this season. It will be interesting to see if we can even get any homegrown for the remaining of the season.
Quoting robert88:
Long range GFS says CV season comes to an early close....shows even stronger cold fronts coming through as well. Conditions have been pretty horrible in the Atlantic this season. It will be interesting to see if we can even get any homegrown for the remaining of the season.
Trade winds have been strong in the caribbean and instability has been below average...So I really have my doubts.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Isnt that what snowflakes are supposed to do?
Oh yeah, i live in GA...



That would make my snow year....3" is enough to cover my grass and its a big snow event if i get that much.

Snowflakes are obviously supposed to melt, well up here snow accumulates instead of melting on most surfaces. Also we get a good 40-50" a year, last winter was a big let down.
Sept 9, 2012 06z GFS
Leslie and Michael





images credit: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
We have a new invest in the EPAC!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209091549
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902012
EP, 90, 2012090912, , BEST, 0, 115N, 940W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm already getting excited for winter... especially after the disappointment last year. It's hard to keep my mind fully on the tropics at this point, lol.
Honestly, me too. I've mentioned before that I just moved to NE this summer. I haven't seen a true winter in over 30 years, since I lived in Wyoming.
Michael is an interesting looking storm, only reason for the lowering of intensity is probably the warming of cloud tops.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Trade winds have been strong in the caribbean and instability has been below average...So I really have my doubts.

Trade winds aren't so much of a problem before but instability is lacking. Anyway the storm would leave the Caribbean, I think we should see a storm.
Quoting Methurricanes:
because Micheal is the deeper system, wouldn't he technicly be favored to abosrb leslie, not vise-versa?

leslie is bigger
.......looks like the rains are going to end soon near my area,they are moving inland to the NE
Quoting washingtonian115:
Trade winds have been strong in the caribbean and instability has been below average...So I really have my doubts.

Even so, trade winds are not a problem in the West and northwest Caribbean where most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in October. True, instability is way below average, but it was just the same last year and we got Major Hurricane Rina.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1025 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER AT TRILBY AND THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...

.MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE WITHLACOOCHEE AT TRILBY AND
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS. WITH WET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROLONGED MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
I haven't seen this model and location before.You may already have it.

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/wrf_wf.htm l

For some reason I am unable to post pics or links.
The 11am EDT advisory packages bring Lesile's ACE up to 12.7 units, Michael's ACE up to 13.0 units, and the season total up to 67.9 units.
does anyone else see a WSW movement with Micheal?
Quoting LargoFl:

That is obviously a very big hurricane wind field.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Not to burst a bubble, but someone thinks this is a better MJO forecast because it is dynamic. I would like to see an expert clariffy which one is better.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not really:



maybe in canada...

We arent going to go so far away from climatology to september snows this year..this isnt 1942 again.... i dont think..

Come on, I don't think this September will feature the opposite extreme as what this past March brought to much of the Great Lakes, plains, and on eastward when we were transitioning into spring and we got June-like weather. December-like weather in September, that just is impossible and i don't buy it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Two of the 6z GFS ensemble members...



Hi...sorry just checking in. What system are these for please, 91L? TIA
MAweatherboy1, the12z GFS maps you posted on the last blog were for what storm please? Guessing 91L, is that correct? TIA
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I haven't seen this model and location before.You may already have it.

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/wrf_wf.htm l

For some reason I am unable to post pics or links.
Backtracked and got this page: San Jose State University Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, Weather Center.
From there, click model graphics and then click WRF 12 and 3 km TC genesis, west Africa.
This is the 850 mb temp, height, wind WRF 00z, 12k forecast for 0700 cdt today.


Pretty neat. Didn't even know San Jose State had a Dept of Meteorology. Thanks!

9Sept.3:05pmGMT: TS.Leslie had passed 133miles(214kilometres)East of Bermuda
The previous mapping of TS.Leslie
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Doesn't look like Leslie will come within Fujiwhara-distance (~900miles or ~1450kilometres) of Michael: Leslie's been moving too fast, and Michael's been moving too slow.
But they aren't so far apart that future interaction is impossible, yet. And because a Fujiwhara would affect both storms' paths...
Derived from the NHC's 9Sept12pmGMT ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie and for HurricaneMichael
BHB-BarHarbor :: CWRW-FourchuHead :: YYT-St.John's :: YMH-Mary'sHarbour
All times in GMT
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been 1238miles(1992kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been1222miles(1966kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been 1197miles(1926kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been 1151miles(1853kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie was 1090miles(1754kilometres)West of H.Michael

A closure rate of 148miles(238kilometres) per day isn't sufficient to close the gap before the distance between the two starts increasing again. But if Leslie slows down while Michael speeds up...

Copy&paste bda, bhb, cwrw, yyt, 51.535n55.445w, ymh, 32.8n42.1w-29.0n62.5w, 33.3n42.3w-29.7n62.6w, 33.6n42.5w-30.5n62.6w, 33.7n42.9w-31.5n62.5w, 33.7n43.5w-32.7n62.3w into the GreatCircleMapper
The previous mapping of H.Michael