WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Severe Thunderstorms Rip From Chicago to Baltimore

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2013

It was a wild weather night over much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, as tornadoes and an organized complex of severe thunderstorms known as a bow echo brought damaging winds to a large swath of the country. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged twelve preliminary reports of tornadoes in Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio, but no injuries or major damage were reported with the twisters. A large area of severe thunderstorms organized into a curved band known as a "bow echo" over Indiana during the evening. The bow echo raced east-southeastwards at 50 mph overnight, spawning severe thunderstorm warnings along its entire track, and arrived in Washington D.C. and Baltimore, Maryland near 9 am EDT Thursday morning. SPC logged 159 reports of high thunderstorm wind gusts of 58 mph or greater in the 26 hours ending at 10 am EDT Thursday morning, and three of these gusts were 74 mph or greater. SPC did not classify this event as a "derecho", since the winds were not strong enough to qualify. Last year's June 29, 2012 derecho had 675 reports of wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, with 35 of these gusts 74 mph or greater. Thirteen people died in the winds, mostly from falling trees; 34 more people died from heat-related causes in the areas where 4 million people lost power in the wake of the great storm.

Another round of severe weather is expected over the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday afternoon and evening, and SPC has placed portions of this region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather.


Figure 1. Lightning strikes the Willis Tower (formerly Sears Tower) in downtown on June 12, 2013 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)


Figure 2. An organized line of severe thunderstorms took the shape of a "bow echo" over Indiana last night, triggering severe thunderstorm warnings along the entire front of the bow.


Figure 3. Severe weather reports for the 24 hours ending at 8 am EDT June 13, 2013, from SPC.

Big wind in the Windy City
I watched with some trepidation Wednesday evening as a large tornado vortex signature on radar developed west of Chicago, heading right for one of the most densely populated areas in the country. Fortunately, the storm pulled its punch, and Chicago was spared a direct hit by a violent tornado. But what would happen if a violent, long-track EF4 or EF5 tornado ripped through a densely populated urban area like Chicago? That was the question posed by tornado researcher Josh Wurman of the Center for Severe Weather Research in Boulder and three co-authors in a paper published in the January 2007 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Their astonishing answer: damage of $40 billion and 13,000-45,000 people killed--the deadliest natural disaster in American history, eclipsing the Galveston Hurricane (8,000 fatalities.)


Figure 4. Tornadoes to affect the Chicago area, 1950-2005. Background image credit: Google Earth. Tornado paths: Dr. Perry Samson.

Huge tornado death tolls are very rare
A tornado death toll in the ten of thousands seems outlandish when one considers past history. After all, the deadliest tornado in U.S. history--the great Tri-state Tornado of March 18, 1925--killed 695 people in its deadly rampage across rural Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. That was before the advent of Doppler radar and the National Weather Service's excellent tornado warning system. In fact, there has only been one tornado death toll over 100 (the 158 killed in the Joplin, Missouri tornado in 2011) since 1953, the year the NWS began issuing tornado warnings. Chicago has been hit by one violent tornado. On April 21, 1967 a 200-yard wide F4 tornado formed in Palos Hills in Cook County, and tore a 16-miles long trail of destruction through Oak Lawn and the south side of Chicago. Thirty-three people died, 500 more were injured, and damage was estimated at $50 million.


Figure 5. Wind speed swaths for the 1999 F5 Mulhall, Oklahoma tornado if it were to traverse a densely populated area of Chicago. Units are in meters/sec (120 m/s = 269 mph, 102 m/s = 228 mph, and 76 m/s = 170 mph). Winds above 170 mph usually completely destroy an average house, with a crudely estimated fatality rate of 10%, according to Wurman et al.. Insets x, y, and z refer to satellite photo insets in Figure 2. Image credit: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.


Figure 6. Aerial photographs from Google Earth of densely populated area of Chicago (insets x, y, and z from Figure 5) These areas contain mainly single-family homes, with housing units densely packed on small lots. A mixture of three-story apartments and single-family homes is typical across the Chicago metropolitan area and many older cities such as New York City and Detroit. At lower right is a photo of Moore, OK, showing lower density housing like the 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore tornado passed through.

The paper by Wurman et al., "Low-level winds in tornadoes and the potential catastrophic tornado impacts in urban areas" opens with an analysis of the wind structure of two F5 tornadoes captured on mobile "Doppler on Wheels" radar systems--the May 3, 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore tornado, which hit the southern suburbs of Oklahoma City, and the Mulhall, Oklahoma tornado of the same day, which moved over sparsely populated rural regions. The Bridgecreek-Moore tornado had the highest winds ever measured in a tornado, 302 mph. Winds of EF4 to EF5 strength (greater than 170 mph) are capable of completely destroying a typical home, and occurred over a 350 meter (1150 foot) wide swath along this tornado's path. The Mulhall tornado had weaker winds topping out at 245-255 mph, but had EF4 to EF5 winds over a much wider swath--1600 meters (one mile).

The F4 to F5 winds of the Bridgecreek-Moore tornado killed 36 people. Given the population of the area hit, between 1% and 3% of the people exposed to these winds died. The authors thought that this number was unusually low, given the excellent warnings and high degree of tornado awareness in Oklahoma's population. They cited the death rate in the 1998 Spencer, South Dakota F4 tornado that destroyed 30 structures and caused six deaths, resulting in a death rate of 6% (assuming 3.3 people lived in each structure). There are no studies that relate the probability of death to the amount of damage a structure receives, and the authors estimated crudely that the death rate per totally destroyed structure is 10%. This number will go down sharply if there is a long warning time, as there was in the Oklahoma tornadoes. If one takes the Mulhall tornado's track and superimposes it on a densely populated region of Chicago (Figure 5), one sees that a much higher number of buildings are impacted due to the density of houses. Many of these are high-rise apartment buildings that would not be totally destroyed, and the authors assume a 1% death rate in these structures. Assuming a 1% death rate in the partially destroyed high-rise apartment buildings and a 10% death rate in the homes totally destroyed along the simulated tornado's path, one arrives at a figure of 13,000-45,000 killed in Chicago by a violent, long-track tornado. The math can applied to other cities, as well, resulting in deaths tolls as high as 14,000 in St. Louis, 22,000 in Dallas, 17,000 in Houston, 15,000 in Atlanta, and 8,000 in Oklahoma City. Indeed, the May 31, 2013 EF5 tornado that swept through El Reno, Oklahoma, killing four storm chasers, could have easily killed 1,000 people had it held together and plowed into Oklahoma City, hitting freeways jammed with people who unwisely decided to flee the storm in their cars. The authors emphasize that even if their death rate estimates are off by a factor ten, a violent tornado in Chicago could still kill 1,300-4,500 people. The authors don't give an expected frequency for such an event, but I speculate that a violent tornado capable of killing thousands will probably occur in a major U.S. city once every few hundred years.

Jeff Masters

Severe Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
EASTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 722 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HOLLY
SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN PARK...MILTON...ALPHARETTA...ROSWELL...SANDY SPRINGS AND
JOHNS CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO A
BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
GEORGIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8425 3411 8426 3410 8422 3404 8412
3403 8417 3400 8421 3400 8425 3396 8430
3397 8434 3394 8435 3386 8451 3419 8459
3429 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 319DEG 25KT 3416 8442

$$
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Storm has moved its rotation to a more favorable position outside of the rain. Lighting outside of my window is spectacular.





Link to the image URL, not to the web page
Quoting beell:


Is that as in 25,000 square miles (25K)? Out of about 104,000 sq miles for the whole state?

No, the correct figure is closer to 25 square miles.
Oh lovely. TVS and tornado warning. GAstorms is more under the gun then me now. Will update radar frame in a second.
Hope GAstorms is safe. Close to both of us.
507. beell
Thanks, Pat.
This is getting a little to close for comfort.

Yowza, Progress now reports 182k without power (and that's going to go up). Duke is dropping and now at 157k. Duke is west NC, Progress is east NC.
Rotation has weakened a good bit. Probably will stay that way. Good light show outside.
Can't say definitively there isn't anything on the ground.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can't say definitively there isn't anything on the ground.



Can't.....isn't

Double negative.

Not often do I get tripped up with those, but that one sure got me confused.
Quoting violet312s:
Yowza, Progress now reports 182k without power (and that's going to go up). Duke is dropping and now at 157k. Duke is west NC, Progress is east NC.

So Progress is not making progress. :-) I looked it up and the most customers without power at one time from the storms last night was a little more 400,000. Having over 300,000 without power in a much more lightly populated area like NC would seem to indicate both utilities need to do a lot more tree trimming.
Note: The watch box covering TN has for the most part been cut down to size, Intellicast doesn't reflect those changes until the watch is discontinued.



Can we get to 700 reports by the end of the night?
This is heading for downtown Atlanta.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHWESTERN GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 745 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEVASTATING WINDS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 80 MPH
. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SANDY
SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SMYRNA...DUNWOODY...DULUTH...BERKELEY LAKE...NORCROSS...
DORAVILLE...CHAMBLEE...BUCKHEAD...LILBURN...TUCKER ...MIDTOWN...
DRUID HILLS...ATLANTA...CLARKSTON...DECATUR...GRANT PARK-ZOO
ATLANTA...AVONDALE ESTATES...STONE MOUNTAIN...PINE LAKE...
SNELLVILLE AND EAST POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
GEORGIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 8459 3387 8453 3395 8454 3406 8415
3380 8396 3377 8401 3363 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 334DEG 33KT 3395 8440

$$
Latest evac map I could find for the Black Forest Fire. Blue areas are mandatory and yellow are voluntary and/or pre-evacuation areas. For folks unfamiliar with the area, this is a massive evacuation affecting roughly 41,000 people. To give you an idea, it would take about an hour to drive from one corner of the evac area to the other...

We lost power here..my Lord...never ever been through this..
Its hailing like hell here.

Sorry for that word.

Tornado sirens still going
Alright guys I'm going offline in about an hour so just letting you guys know it stormy here in Cayman
That was the strongest storm I have ever been in. I would say 60-70 mph gust. Wind shift a few moments later as well. Power is out so I am on my phone.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
We lost power here..my Lord...never ever been through this..
Its hailing like hell here.

Sorry for that word.

Tornado sirens still going


Welcome to a typical southern thunderstorm. These things are what got me first interested in weather. Having squalls come through at 3 am, lights go out, and all you can hear is the hail and winds screaming and thunder crashing.

Good memories.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
We lost power here..my Lord...never ever been through this..
Its hailing like hell here.

Sorry for that word.

Tornado sirens still going

It's OK. Yeah, we get some mean summer thunderstorms down here. Moved here in 2006 and had to get a new roof 10 days after I bought my house due to hail. Softball size, in my case. Makes many holes in things. At least I don't see any rotation on the storm now, so it's just getting though the hail. The hail is a good reason to make sure your homeowners and vehicle insurance is paid on time. :-)

812
WFUS55 KBOU 140004
TORBOU
COC121-140045-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0018.130614T0004Z-130614T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
604 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 604 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF PREWITT RESERVOIR...OR 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF AKRON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AKRON...OTIS...PLATNER...BURDETT...LONE STAR...ELBA AND MIDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3977 10346 4042 10346 4043 10280 3998 10281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 248DEG 27KT 4036 10336

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN



BAKER
This is the current HWO from BMX:

"HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-142310-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMB ERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH- FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION- MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
610 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THIS SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THIS EVENING."

This is our current radar
here

I'm north of Dothan. What do you think? Should I head for the storm cellar now? :-)
Quoting sar2401:

So Progress is not making progress. :-) I looked it up and the most customers without power at one time from the storms last night was a little more 400,000. Having over 300,000 without power in a much more lightly populated area like NC would seem to indicate both utilities need to do a lot more tree trimming.


Perhaps you need to update your thoughts on "lightly populated". We have 10M peeps here. Yes concentrated in three areas: Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Greensboro/Winston Salem.

Georgia also has 10M. :)
Quoting sar2401:

It's OK. Yeah, we get some mean summer thunderstorms down here. Moved here in 2006 and had to get a new roof 10 days after I bought my house due to hail. Softball size, in my case. Makes many holes in things. At least I don't see any rotation on the storm now, so it's just getting though the hail. The hail is a good reason to make sure your homeowners and vehicle insurance is paid on time. :-)


We had a storm come through last year with a tornado warning on it. Instead of seeking shelter in my school, my mother got on the roads and outpaced the storm.

Good thing too, that storm became one on Nashville's largest hailstorms ever. No tornado, but I got some good pics of the mammatus clouds and other parts of that storm.
Quoting violet312s:


Perhaps you need to update your thoughts on "lightly populated". We have 10M peeps here. Yes concentrated in three areas: Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Greensboro/Winston Salem.

Georgia also has 10M. :)

Well, yeah...but I mean as compared to the "derecho" path from Illinois to somewhere off the Atlantic coast. I'm in Alabama, which only has 4.8 million. Still, the outages seem unusually large compared to the area I was refering to.
Hearing reports from my friend that lives in Roswell, GA that there are roofs off houses in that area!
Quoting Astrometeor:


We had a storm come through last year with a tornado warning on it. Instead of seeking shelter in my school, my mother got on the roads and outpaced the storm.

Good thing too, that storm became one on Nashville's largest hailstorms ever. No tornado, but I got some good pics of the mammatus clouds and other parts of that storm.

Your mother outran a giant hailstorm? She doesn't drive for NASCAR, does she? :-)
Looks like the only thing I'm going to get from this squall line in southern Pender County is the outflow boundary. Should produce winds of 35-45 mph.

Not surprising.

There's a shield across my region.

Bubble:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBEMARLE 35.36N 80.19W
06/13/2013 STANLY NC EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 3 INJ *** COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS NUMEROUS
TREES DOWN COUNTY-WIDE. ALBEMARLE HARDEST HIT. NUMEROUS
TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HOMES...SEVERAL OF WHICH WENT
THROUGH HOMES AND MOBILE HOMES. MULTIPLE INJURIES AND
MANY RESIDENTS DISPLACED FROM THEIR HOMES. SHELTERS OPEN
FOR DISPLACED RESIDENTS.
Quoting sar2401:

Your mother outran a giant hailstorm? She doesn't drive for NASCAR, does she? :-)


Maybe outran was the wrong word. The storm was sliding about 40 mph to the east-south-east. We went and got on the interstate and drove far enough north to get out of the storm's path. From there we were in the clear.

lol NASCAR. Nah, wouldn't happen, family doesn't like racing too much. Not interesting to us.
Over 500 wind reports now.
Quoting mikatnight:
How many hours out is this?
Quoting Thrawst:
Hearing reports from my friend that lives in Roswell, GA that there are roofs off houses in that area!
Would not surprise me. I am 2 miles south of downtown Roswell and I would not be surprised if those reports are true. I got around 60-70 mph. I can see the sun coming out now though. Was very intense. Would like it if the power would come back on ASAP.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like the only thing I'm going to get from this squall line in southern Pender County is the outflow boundary. Should produce winds of 35-45 mph.

Not surprising.

There's a shield across my region.

Bubble:


I would put in a sucks to be you statement, but I have a shield over my area... Storms almost always seem to break up or weaken when the come near me.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I would put in a sucks to be you statement, but I have a shield over my area... Storms almost always seem to break up or weaken when the come near me.


I have similar issues. Just with snowstorms. Those rascals evaporate to my west and then reform on my eastern side-meaning everyone gets out of school but me. >:(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like the only thing I'm going to get from this squall line in southern Pender County is the outflow boundary. Should produce winds of 35-45 mph.

Not surprising.

There's a shield across my region.

Bubble:


That map doesn't appear to be for today.
Quoting sar2401:

That map doesn't appear to be for today.


No it isn't. Read the date at the top. 4/16/11.
:-)
I have a friend visiting in Atlanta and they were told to seek safety in the basement stairwell at a Holiday Inn Downtown near the Children's Hospital. She said that the noise was terrying!
They are safe and were cleared to return to their rooms but WOW!
Still waiting to see if the line holds up all the way down to Charleston tonight.
Quoting sar2401:

That map doesn't appear to be for today.

Well no, it says 04/16/11 at the top. Was using it as an example.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I would put in a sucks to be you statement, but I have a shield over my area... Storms almost always seem to break up or weaken when the come near me.
We here in D.C have a tornado shield.It has worked very well!

Whooohoo!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well no, it says 04/16/11 at the top. Was using it as an example.

OK, got it now. I thought there was another date system I wasn't familiar with. :-)

174
WFUS55 KBOU 140034
TORBOU
COC075-121-140115-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0019.130614T0034Z-130614T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
634 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 715 PM MDT

* AT 633 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
BURDETT...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF AKRON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURDETT AND ST PETERSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN SIGHTED ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER
NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 4069 10303 4046 10267 4044 10272 4044 10278
4041 10278 4027 10307 4039 10330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 218DEG 14KT 4040 10309

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN


BAKER
Now the SPC put in the tornado reports.
Quoting AllyBama:
I have a friend visiting in Atlanta and they were told to seek safety in the basement stairwell at a Holiday Inn Downtown near the Children's Hospital. She said that the noise was terrying!
They are safe and were cleared to return to their rooms but WOW!

I'm glad your friend is OK. I can't find anything confirming a tornado but there are lots of reports on local TV of straight line wind damage. For whatever reason, the severe storms end literally at the GA/AL state line. Our shields are still up, but it would be nice if at least some rain dribbled across at us.
"Reports', have to be "confirmed", b-4 being added to the Report Map.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
We lost power here..my Lord...never ever been through this..
Its hailing like hell here.

Sorry for that word.

Tornado sirens still going
You would not live in my city it looks.As light goes Mondays Wenesday and Saturdays from 1 to 4 and 7 to 10.
Today has been the most active severe weather day of 2013, with 551 reports of damaging winds.

bad set up look at the big high on the east coast!
Quoting sar2401:

I'm glad your friend is OK. I can't find anything confirming a tornado but there are lots of reports on local TV of straight line wind damage. For whatever reason, the severe storms end literally at the GA/AL state line. Our shields are still up, but it would be nice if at least some rain dribbled across at us.


thanks! she is just happy it is overwith! I hope that no one was injured. I guess the reports of damage will be pouring in for awhile.
Quoting Patrap:

174
WFUS55 KBOU 140034
TORBOU
COC075-121-140115-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0019.130614T0034Z-130614T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
634 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 715 PM MDT

* AT 633 PM MDT...

I'm amazed there are no tornado warnings out for Weld County. There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but no warnings. During the spring and summer, it seems like there's a tornado warning out nearly every day for somewhere in Weld County. I'm amazed there are any buildings left standing in Weld County.
Part of the problem in NC wasn't just that we had wind, but that there's been so much rain the last couple weeks, the ground is super-soft. Some of the larger trees I saw down on the news looked like they tipped over in mud.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Exactly, trees come down a lot easier up there then they do down here. I've experienced a number of 60 to 70 mph thunderstorm wind events that don't do any damage at all here in Central FL except a few small tree limbs down. I live right by an airport with official obs to confirm such events. However, I've experienced 40 to 50 mph wind gusts from thunderstorms bring down large tree branches and even entire trees in North Carolina and Michigan along with even power outages. I'm talking healthy trees too.
.
Part of the reason we don't see the limb loss tree-wise is because we get more regular "high-wind" events to keep the foliage from getting too brittle. Some of the difference is also in the foliage itself. I think we can agree that our palms and pines are generally better adapted to deal with moderate gale force winds.
Quoting Patrap:
Shhh.Pat it's suppose to be a surprise.But in all seriousness and regardless of development someone in the tropics is going to get flooding rain.In some parts of the caribbean this latest MJO is not welcomed.

On another note I hope that these early Nor-easters are a sign of a interesting winter and not another let down like the past three.
Quoting allancalderini:
You would not live in my city it looks.As light goes Mondays Wenesday and Saturdays from 1 to 4 and 7 to 10.

Allan, what part of Honduras do you live in? I've been to Catacamas several times, and power cuts are just a way of life there.
562. txjac
Quoting washingtonian115:
Shhh.Pat it's suppose to be a surprise.But in all seriousness and regardless of development someone in the tropics is going to get flooding rain.In some parts of the caribbean this latest MJO is not welcomed.

On another note I hope that these early Nor-easters are a sign of a interesting winter and not another let down like the past three.


This sounds terrible but I would love a lot of rain ...it floods here easily so flloding rains wouldnt take all that much
lots of forcasted wind shear in the atlantic and gulf the next 2 to 3 months
Quoting washingtonian115:
Shhh.Pat it's suppose to be a surprise.But in all seriousness and regardless of development someone in the tropics is going to get flooding rain.In some parts of the caribbean this latest MJO is not welcomed.

On another note I hope that these early Nor-easters are a sign of a interesting winter and not another let down like the past three.

Wash, did you notice the squall lines from both early this morning and this afternoon both appeared to intensify when they hit the Atlantic? I admit I don't often watch what storms up there do when they move offshore. Is this typical behavior.
Quoting sar2401:

Allan, what part of Honduras do you live in? I've been to Catacamas several times, and power cuts are just a way of life there.
In La Ceiba.I imagine you have visit my city.There have been occuring a lot of power cuts as the Country is rationalizing energy,but I need to say they need to paid me the tv that I lost from all the power outrage that occur.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That was the strongest storm I have ever been in. I would say 60-70 mph gust. Wind shift a few moments later as well. Power is out so I am on my phone.

Glad to hear that you're okay.
Quoting sar2401:

Wash, did you notice the squall lines from both early this morning and this afternoon both appeared to intensify when they hit the Atlantic? I admit I don't often watch what storms up there do when they move offshore. Is this typical behavior.
I'll try to answer the best way.Well with last years Derecho it completely died off when it hit the water.These storms however are apart of a front/low that is transpiring into a coastal storm.Not to mention the water anomalies are pretty above average.This is also a very powerful low for this time of year and is more in line of a nor'easter while last years Derecho was not.Some storms die off due to the different environments.

Like for a example a nice looking wave over africa dies off once it hits the water while the other survives.It's all about sustaining convection and if a storm can't do that and get use to it's new environment it's done for.Sometimes it has to do with land friction as well.

944
WFUS55 KBOU 140114
TORBOU
COC075-095-115-140200-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0020.130614T0114Z-130614T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
714 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
EASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 800 PM MDT

* AT 712 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF FLEMING...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
STERLING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SPORADIC DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN STERLING...HAXTUN...FLEMING...ILIFF...SEDGWICK...
CROOK...TWIN BUTTES...PROCTOR AND ST PETERSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS STORM MAY ALSO BE
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.



LAT...LON 4045 10268 4046 10325 4099 10293 4099 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 227DEG 26KT 4065 10295
You know Pat the way the tracks are it reminds me of early 2005.Andrea hitting the big bend/Northen Gulf coast..the second named storm going into Mexico in the BOC..and the third running into the central gulf coast..like Arlene,Bret,and Cindy...
Quoting allancalderini:
In La Ceiba.I imagine you have visit my city.There have been occuring a lot of power cuts as the Country is rationalizing energy,but I need to say they need to paid me the tv that I lost from all the power outrage that occur.

I have indeed been there, both to visit and to catch the ferry to the Bay Islands. I was last there in 2005 and don't remember the power cuts there being as bad as in Catacamas. Have things gotten worse? Does that 3 km train still run, the one with one engine and one sort of passenger car? I thought that was pretty neat. Very pretty city, although the beach needed a lot of work when I was there.
Quoting txjac:


This sounds terrible but I would love a lot of rain ...it floods here easily so flloding rains wouldnt take all that much


San Antonio and deep south Texas are getting quite a bit of rain today.

sitting here waiting..

NWS, Wilmington, NC
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH EVEN AT THIS HOUR. CONVECTION WAS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WILL TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE ABOUT AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO MOST OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.

PARAMETERS IN PLACE SUGGEST A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES
WILL BE THE STORM MODE AS LARGE CAPE...DCAPE...AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORT THIS EVENT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE N PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL
BE CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER LOW-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS.

RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AFTER 04-06Z FROM W TO E. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK CAA
OCCURRING NEAR DAYBREAK. THAT BEING THE CASE...MIN TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S AT THE COAST.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


San Antonio and deep south Texas are getting quite a bit of rain today.
Wait do you live in another part of the country and not Baltimore Maryland?
Quoting sar2401:

I have indeed been there, both to visit and to catch the ferry to the Bay Islands. I was last there in 2005 and don't remember the power cuts there being as bad as in Catacamas. Have things gotten worse? Does that 3 km train still run, the one with one engine and one sort of passenger car? I thought that was pretty neat. Very pretty city, although the beach needed a lot of work when I was there.
Every part in the country is having trouble with powercuts specially the poor one sometimes they even don`t have lights for days,The beach has been renew its a lot prettier now than before.If you are saying about the train that start in pizza hut and ride you all over the city?
Quoting nash36:
Still waiting to see if the line holds up all the way down to Charleston tonight.


The line in the midlands of SC is broken.

Quoting Birthmark:

Glad to hear that you're okay.


Now picture the 165mph Sustained Winds for a duration of time in South Miami/Homestead in 1992........ In Andrew

A tornado will last only a few seconds, a Category 5 Hurricane will last much longer.

Unconfirmed wind readings of 175 mph Sustained Winds at cutler, Fl in Andrew
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wait do you live in another part of the country and not Baltimore Maryland?


No. I am aware of weather in other regions of the country. It's quite easy to be so when you are attuned with this site.
Does anyone know howany people are without power in the Atlanta metro? Power has been out for 1 1/2 hours now.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Now picture the 165mph Sustained Winds for a duration of time in South Miami/Homestead in 1992........ In Andrew

A tornado will last only a few seconds, a Category 5 Hurricane will last much longer.

Unconfirmed wind readings of 175 mph Sustained Winds at cutler, Fl in Andrew

Hey, the 90-100 mph I got when the eye of Charley ran me over was quite sufficient to convince me of the power of wind. It convinced a large tree (that I was quite fond of) to fall over and block the only road off my little island in the lake.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Does anyone know howany people are without power in the Atlanta metro? Power has been out for 1 1/2 hours now.
Feels like your in the stone ages..My nephew doesn't have power.And it really depends on if you live close to the city.The closer you live to the city the faster your power comes back on..if you live in a rural area your gonna have to wait awhile.
Quoting washingtonian115:
You know Pat the way the tracks are it reminds me of early 2005.Andrea hitting the big bend/Northen Gulf coast..the second named storm going into Mexico in the BOC..and the third running into the central gulf coast..like Arlene,Bret,and Cindy...
I agree.
These storms will either a.) weaken, b.) remain the same intensity but split in half, one part going north of and one part going south of my county, or c.) dissipate altogether.

From Eric Thomas at WBTV in Charlotte, NC. Roll cloud moving into Riverpointe in Davidson, NC. 160,000+ without power.

Pushing 700,000 without power from today's storms. 1,139 wind reports in the last two days. As far as I know, that's the record. As far as I've seen at least.
Damage






Close to 600 wind reports.Could someone tell me the record for wind reports.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Damage






I feel bad about all of the damage and all of if injuries and deaths.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
I feel bad about all of the damage and all of if injuries and deaths.
No reports about deaths.

In the D.C area
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Close to 600 wind reports.Could someone tell me the record for wind reports.

This, I believe.

Power is back on here in Mountain View, North Carolina. Death toll at 2 here from the straight line winds.
Took this shot after the storm.

Quoting washingtonian115:
No reports about deaths.



3 killed sofar in NC
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Close to 600 wind reports.Could someone tell me the record for wind reports.


I'm still looking through the records, but last year's June 29 derecho had 788 wind reports.
More pics




Quoting Astrometeor:


I'm still looking through the records, but last year's June 29 derecho had 788 wind reports.


Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Close to 600 wind reports.Could someone tell me the record for wind reports.


Quoting Tribucanes:
Pushing 700,000 without power from today's storms. 1,139 wind reports in the last two days. As far as I know, that's the record. As far as I've seen at least.


Here's a good place to do some research on past events: SPC archive
Quoting Astrometeor:


I'm still looking through the records, but last year's June 29 derecho had 788 wind reports.

788?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This, I believe.



Huh. I don't remember that day. Must've missed out on the action.

How did your shield work out for you on that one TA?
Geogia Power

Outage & Storm Center

Ensuring your safety before, during and after a storm or outage.
When an outage occurs, you can count on Georgia Power to provide you with the highest level of service as we work hard to restore your power. To help you make decisions for your family%u2019s well-being during an outage, visit our Outage Map for an estimated time of when your power will be restored. The map also features other tools to keep you safe and informed.


http://www.georgiapower.com/in-your-community/sto rm-center/
Quoting allancalderini:
Every part in the country is having trouble with powercuts specially the poor one sometimes they even don`t have lights for days,The beach has been renew its a lot prettier now than before.If you are saying about the train that start in pizza hut and ride you all over the city?

It was a train that ran from the plaza about 3 km west to the suburbs. I think it was the last remaining segment of the old Standard Fruit Company narrow gauge lines that ran to the pineapple plantations.

I know ENEE was trying to build several hydro plants when I was there. Did that ever get done? So much of the country is dependent on diesel fueled generators for power, so I imagine the rising price of oil has really hurt Honduras. There was a lot of theft from the power grid by illegal connections when I was there, and the general state of public distribution wiring was very poor. There were several areas that I made sure I was on the side of the street away from power poles because all the wires looked like they were ready to come down at any minute.

I'm glad to hear the beach has been cleaned up. The Gulf waters were really pretty but the beach, with all the garbage and sand flies, made it hard to enjoy.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

788?



lol. Guess you found a mistake on their page. I just copied straight from their page. "MDT-T2-W788-H55 " Is what I read, maybe I should've clicked on the link first.
If the line holds maybe SE LA could get some rain.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309...

VALID 140206Z - 140300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG-SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN MT. WW 309 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 0300Z...BUT MAY NEED
TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED...OR POSSIBLY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
MT WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A PAC NW UPPER TROUGH.
DESPITE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS...RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
PERSISTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES...WITH OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN CONCERT WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT COULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION BEYOND THE WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME. ADDITIONALLY...13/12Z NSSL-WRF AND 14/00Z SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
MT AND MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THUS...THE NEED FOR A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME OF WW
309...OR POSSIBLY ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF 0300Z.

..ROGERS/HART.. 06/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 48990490 48670387 46100383 45260486 45050629 45050736
45180931 45370962 46800956 47540940 48300916 48830860
48920785 48950598 48990490
This is when I start second guessing that maybe it won't dissipate, weaken, or go around me.

We'll see.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
These storms will either a.) weaken, b.) remain the same intensity but split in half, one part going north of and one part going south of my county, or c.) dissipate altogether.



they dont look to be dissipating..
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Does anyone know howany people are without power in the Atlanta metro? Power has been out for 1 1/2 hours now.

162,216 as of 9:39 pm EDT, according to the Georgia Power website here
Thanks TA13 for the correct most wind reported days. April of 2011 that day with 1300 plus wind reports and almost 70 tornadoes is just incredible. Nowhere was safe in the area of the reports. Do you know if SPC gave it a High probability of severe weather? Pretty sick. Good day to be in a bunker.
I was curious what everyone thought about the increased convection compared to other seasons. It does seem to me like it is going to be a bad year. I think pressure anomies must be on the low side at least. This is all going off satellite pictures and no maps otherwise. I study the satellites almost daily at least for the Atlantic and conus. Pressures in the mdr and Carib seem low though and the trofs aren't digging particularly deep into the gulf and corresponding latiitude in the atlantic. I know it's early, but it's not that early. Things seem to be shaping up for a rough season and the mjo forecast makes me think things will begin to get interesting by the end of the month. Aside from straight facts, I am surprised at the somewhat alarmed tone the NHC has placed on this season. They certainly put out a very unconservative forecast.
We've reached over 600 wind reports now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is when I start second guessing that maybe it won't dissipate, weaken, or go around me.

We'll see.


You want to see a dissipating line, look at Alabama. Your line of storms looks healthy by comparison.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks TA13 for the correct most wind reported days. April of 2011 that day with 1300 plus wind reports and almost 70 tornadoes is just incredible. Nowhere was safe in the area of the reports. Do you know if SPC gave it a High probability of severe weather? Pretty sick. Good day to be in a bunker.

It was a Moderate risk day. Featured a derecho.

This was the 12z outlook.

This was the 13z outlook.

This was the 1630z outlook.

And this was the 20z outlook.

Quoting sar2401:

It was a train that ran from the plaza about 3 km west to the suburbs. I think it was the last remaining segment of the old Standard Fruit Company narrow gauge lines that ran to the pineapple plantations.

I know ENEE was trying to build several hydro plants when I was there. Did that ever get done? So much of the country is dependent on diesel fueled generators for power, so I imagine the rising price of oil has really hurt Honduras. There was a lot of theft from the power grid by illegal connections when I was there, and the general state of public distribution wiring was very poor. There were several areas that I made sure I was on the side of the street away from power poles because all the wires looked like they were ready to come down at any minute.

I'm glad to hear the beach has been cleaned up. The Gulf waters were really pretty but the beach, with all the garbage and sand flies, made it hard to enjoy.
Oh that one no its still there but its not use anymore is more like a souvenir that make people to remind about the past.ENEE the electricity company that lies to us all Hondurans people are getting tired of it.At least three of there superiors have been killed by citizens they always lie and steal to us.They are useless that is why a lot of people now steal electricity.Btw from where are you?Belize
Well, that was fun. Didn't do anything too horrific here west of Atlanta, but the sky was an ominous shade of...not sure how to describe the color. Spicy mustard? Baby poop yellow?
Fared better than I expected seeing that sky. Plenty of lightning, sounded like a little bit of pea-sized hail, too.
Quoting GatorWX:
I was curious what everyone thought about the increased convection compared to other seasons. It does seem to me like it is going to be a bad year. I think pressure anomies must be on the low side at least. This is all going off satellite pictures and no maps otherwise. I study the satellites almost daily at least for the Atlantic and conus. Pressures in the mdr and Carib seem low though and the trofs aren't digging particularly deep into the gulf and corresponding latiitude in the atlantic. I know it's early, but it's not that early. Things seem to be shaping up for a rough season and the mjo forecast makes me think things will begin to get interesting by the end of the month. Aside from straight facts, I am surprised at the somewhat alarmed tone the NHC has placed on this season. They certainly put out a very unconservative forecast.

I don't have a clue what you're talking about.
In regards to 616, you highlighted exactly what he was talking about. :)
Quoting GatorWX:
I was curious what everyone thought about the increased convection compared to other seasons. It does seem to me like it is going to be a bad year. I think pressure anomies must be on the low side at least. This is all going off satellite pictures and no maps otherwise. I study the satellites almost daily at least for the Atlantic and conus. Pressures in the mdr and Carib seem low though and the trofs aren't digging particularly deep into the gulf and corresponding latiitude in the atlantic. I know it's early, but it's not that early. Things seem to be shaping up for a rough season and the mjo forecast makes me think things will begin to get interesting by the end of the month. Aside from straight facts, I am surprised at the somewhat alarmed tone the NHC has placed on this season. They certainly put out a very unconservative forecast.


I am confused on how you think this is going to be a bad year, then call the NHC "unconservative" and "somewhat alarmed" especially combined with your reaction. Wouldn't you be more likely to side with the NHC's forecast, not the other way around? I don't see your reasoning behind this. The NHC stated that this year will be another active season, not sure how much "alarming" a statement made about an entire season before the season even starts can be in that regard.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I am confused on how you think this is going to be a bad year, then call the NHC "unconservative" and "somewhat alarmed" especially combined with your reaction. Wouldn't you be more likely to side with the NHC's forecast, not the other way around? I don't see your reasoning behind this. The NHC stated that this year will be another active season, not sure how much "alarming" a statement made about an entire season before the season even starts can be in that regard.


What has been their preseason forecast the past three seasons?
Quoting allancalderini:
Oh that one no its still there but its not use anymore is more like a souvenir that make people to remind about the past.ENEE the electricity company that lies to us all Hondurans people are getting tired of it.At least three of there superiors have been killed by citizens they always lie and steal to us.They are useless that is why a lot of people now steal electricity.Btw from where are you?Belize

Allan, originally from Ohio, then California for forty years, and Alabama for the past seven years. Funny you should think Belize though, as I've spent many vacations diving there and then visiting the jungle and Mayan sites in the Mopan River (Playa del Carmen) area and across the border in Guatemala. I've been on several mission trips to Catacamas as out church has a school and computer center there.

I know what you mean about losing your TV to the power outages. We have a generator there with an automatic transfer switch and a line conditioner because of low voltage, and we still lose one or two computers a year to power spikes or severe undervoltage. ENEE is certainly not well loved by the Honduran people, but the private power companies don't seem to have done much better.

I found a picture of the train. It's not the steam engine that's on display, this one was in working order in 2005. Have you seen this one. As you can probably tell, I like trains. :-)
Today was a fun fun day.
Quoting allancalderini:
Oh that one no its still there but its not use anymore is more like a souvenir that make people to remind about the past.ENEE the electricity company that lies to us all Hondurans people are getting tired of it.At least three of there superiors have been killed by citizens they always lie and steal to us.They are useless that is why a lot of people now steal electricity.Btw from where are you?Belize
No offense to your counrty and you Allancalderini..But..

I'M PROUD TO BE A AMERICAN!!!
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks TA13 for the correct most wind reported days. April of 2011 that day with 1300 plus wind reports and almost 70 tornadoes is just incredible. Nowhere was safe in the area of the reports. Do you know if SPC gave it a High probability of severe weather? Pretty sick. Good day to be in a bunker.

Oh, yes, the SPC had that outbreak nailed. Skywarn was placed on alert three days before the outbreak, and that's when they started the public warnings. They had been discussing the possibility of a really bad outbreak in NWS chat for at least five days in advance. As much as I think they overplayed the derecho this time, they were dead on accurate in 2011. The only area they were a little off was not catching some of the late evening tornaodes that occured in south central AL. We had 324 people die from tornadoes and related injuries that day. I can't even imagine how many would have died without all the advance warning.
Quoting GatorWX:


What has been their preseason forecast the past three seasons?


2013: 13-20,7-11,3-6

2012: 9-15,4-8,1-3
2011: 12-18,6-10,3-6
2010: 14-23,8-14,3-7

What's your point?
TA13, 1300 wind reports and almost 70 tornadoes and SPC gave it a moderate day?? SPC is the best in the world, let me state that, but they are far from perfect. Just goes to show how far we have to go in projecting; even a day in advance. Last three or four moderate warnings for severe weather here in Wisconsin were complete busts. That has a very bad effect on the populists view of their forecasts. They get it right in OK,Kansas,MO, and Nebraska often; but they miss the mark in the Upper Great Lakes more times than not. I wonder why? It's a computer generation projection issue. I know that much.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I am confused on how you think this is going to be a bad year, then call the NHC "unconservative" and "somewhat alarmed" especially combined with your reaction. Wouldn't you be more likely to side with the NHC's forecast, not the other way around? I don't see your reasoning behind this. The NHC stated that this year will be another active season, not sure how much "alarming" a statement made about an entire season before the season even starts can be in that regard.
I got the impression he quoted the NHC forecast as yet another factor implying that the season seems likely to be busy.
I've always been proud to be an American. But less and less as our freedoms have been eroded. May we not forget what Benjamin Franklin said; "Those who would sacrifice civil liberties for security deserve neither." We are no longer a Democracy. We as a populace are too ignorant, and a more secretive government we've never had. I know it's harsh, but it's true.
GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan (1-minute interval) images
June 12th, 2013

GOES-14 0.63 visible channel images (click image to play animation)

The GOES-14 satellite was placed into Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSOR) mode to monitor the development of severe weather over a rare SPC High Risk region on 12 June 2013. In SRSOR mode, images were available at 1-minute intervals (compared to the routine 15-minute image interval). The development of numerous large thunderstorms can be seen on GOES-14 SRSOR 0.63 %uFFFDm visible channel images (above; click image to play animation; also available as a QuickTime movie).

These storms produced tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds across parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois (SPC storm reports). One item of interest revealed on the 1-minute imagery was the appearance of "feeder band" clouds that were flowing into the western edge of the large thunderstorm located over northeastern Iowa during the 20:15 - 20:58 time period; without the 1-minute temporal resolution, such subtle mesoscale features would be difficult if not impossible to identify on conventional 15-minute imagery. Numerous overshooting tops could also be seen on some of the larger storms.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/132 56
Hmm, I wonder how TA's "shield" is doing for him. Not sure if these are "dissipating" or "going around" this time.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1032 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1030 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HICKORY
GROVE TO COUNCIL AND NORTH OF WHITEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
ROWAN...
POINT CASWELL...
MALPASS CORNER...
LONG CREEK...
ASHTON...
ATKINSON...
LELAND...
WILMINGTON...
HAMPSTEAD...
BURGAW...
WATHA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3426 7774 3408 7787 3431 7878 3477 7842
3467 7832 3461 7831 3457 7825 3473 7811
3473 7768 3448 7757 3444 7751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 282DEG 48KT 3475 7810 3452 7834
3437 7867
Quoting BahaHurican:
I got the impression he quoted the NHC forecast as yet another factor implying that the season seems likely to be busy.


The NHC forecast definitely implies a busy season, but why be "surprised" about it after agreeing with several other factors that hint at a busy season?
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

ZOOM into the Fla Straits and speed up the Loop.


Quoting GatorWX:


What has been their preseason forecast the past three seasons?

First the NHC doesn't do forecasts. It's done by the CPC. Here's what they predicted for the four years -

2010:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

2011:
12-18 Named Storms,
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.

2012:
9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.

2013:
13-20 Named Storms
7-11 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-205%

I would argue that the 2010 forecast was the most "alarming" and "unconservative" of the past four years.
EDIT:Sorry, Astro, posted this before I saw yours.
Quoting washingtonian115:
No offense to your counrty and you Allancalderini..But..

I'M PROUD TO BE A AMERICAN!!!
How can being proud to be an American be offensive to somebody's who's not American?
[just saying...]

The problems always start when you expect me to be proud to be an American too... only I'm Bajan or Trini or Colombian or something else.... lol...

On a serious note... each of our countries has its unique problems to contend with, yet I am always impressed here how we can find common ground. Being able to be proud of one's country while seeing its faults is key to understanding the commonalities.
Quoting Astrometeor:


The NHC forecast definitely implies a busy season, but why be "surprised" about it after agreeing with several other factors that hint at a busy season?
He said he was surprised at the TONE of the forecast, which to him seemed rather less pragmatic than usual, I suppose.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I got the impression he quoted the NHC forecast as yet another factor implying that the season seems likely to be busy.


Ding ding
Sorry to say two people have been found dead in the Black Forest Fire. It's a somber night on the Front Range of Colorado.

------------------------------------------------- ----

"The remains of two people have been found in the burn zone of the Black Forest Fire.

'We have witnesses that spoke to these two people, one at around 4:20 (p.m. Tuesday) and they said they could see a glow to the west. They were packing their personal belongings, trying to get out. At 5 o'clock, there's another phone conversation, the person that they were speaking with said he could hear popping and cracking in the background and they advised they were leaving right now,' Sheriff Terry Maketa said during a Thursday evening news conference.

The victims bodies were found in their garage.

'The car doors were open as though they were loading or grabbing things. All evidence indicates they were planning to leave very quickly 'then the fast-moving fire overcame them,' Maketa said.

Because of the two deaths, a criminal investigation has been launched.

Authorities don't know and haven't had the resources to investigate what caused the fire, but Maketa suspects it may be human-caused."

Source


360 homes are gone, two people are dead, and the fire still burns out of control...
Quoting BahaHurican:
He said he was surprised at the TONE of the forecast, which to him seemed rather less pragmatic than usual, I suppose.



Oh, I see now. Thanks Baha!
Quoting sar2401:

First the NHC doesn't do forecasts. It's done by the CPC. Here's what they predicted for the four years -

2010:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

2011:
12-18 Named Storms,
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.

2012:
9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.

2013:
13-20 Named Storms
7-11 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-205%

I would argue that the 2010 forecast was the most "alarming" and "unconservative" of the past four years.
EDIT:Sorry, Astro, posted this before I saw yours.


My concern is the amount of moisture over the western Atlantic and carribean. Also, the high pressure that brought very sever drought to tx through a better part of those seasons, especially 2011? is absent. I'm basing my opinion mainly on the patterns I've noticed on satellites.

Yes I edited. Apparently I spend too much time on pandora and am in the top five percent of data users. Using an iPhone is now like using aol in 1994, pretty annoying. Anyway, I apologize.
MrMixon, it's going to be bad if they do in the end trace the start of this fire back to human causes. How terrible to start a fire, even inadvertently, that causes this kind of destruction!
Quoting BahaHurican:
MrMixon, it's going to be bad if they do in the end trace the start of this fire back to human causes. How terrible to start a fire, even inadvertently, that causes this kind of destruction!


My thoughts exactly. Whether this was a grill that sparked some dry grass, a cigarette butt, or an arsonist... somebody may responsible for an incredible amount of destruction.


Of course, even if an individual is found to have sparked it, this fire could just as easily have started from lightning. I hope we'll eventually learn to build safer neighborhoods in fire-prone areas like Colorado...
Quoting BahaHurican:
How can being proud to be an American be offensive to somebody's who's not American?
[just saying...]

The problems always start when you expect me to be proud to be an American too... only I'm Bajan or Trini or Colombian or something else.... lol...

On a serious note... each of our countries has its unique problems to contend with, yet I am always impressed here how we can find common ground. Being able to be proud of one's country while seeing its faults is key to understanding the commonalities.


Very well said by the way!
Quoting Tribucanes:
TA13, 1300 wind reports and almost 70 tornadoes and SPC gave it a moderate day?? SPC is the best in the world, let me state that, but they are far from perfect. Just goes to show how far we have to go in projecting; even a day in advance. Last three or four moderate warnings for severe weather here in Wisconsin were complete busts. That has a very bad effect on the populists view of their forecasts. They get it right in OK,Kansas,MO, and Nebraska often; but they miss the mark in the Upper Great Lakes more times than not. I wonder why? It's a computer generation projection issue. I know that much.

Oops. I had that one confused with the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak. The SPS did, in fact, have that one right on the money.



Although that day wasn't a record for wind damage reported, it must be at least a modern record for tne number of confirmed tornadoes reported.


sar2401, that is terrifying. I remember it well. Easily, one of the most terrifying days of weather ever.
Quoting GatorWX:


Pragmatic how?


Not sure how to answer your question, I was thanking Baha for pointing out that you referred to the tone of the NHC's forecast rather than the forecast itself.

If that makes any sense.

Quoting Astrometeor:
Hmm, I wonder how TA's "shield" is doing for him. Not sure if these are "dissipating" or "going around" this time.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1032 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1030 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HICKORY
GROVE TO COUNCIL AND NORTH OF WHITEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
ROWAN...
POINT CASWELL...
MALPASS CORNER...
LONG CREEK...
ASHTON...
ATKINSON...
LELAND...
WILMINGTON...
HAMPSTEAD...
BURGAW...
WATHA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3426 7774 3408 7787 3431 7878 3477 7842
3467 7832 3461 7831 3457 7825 3473 7811
3473 7768 3448 7757 3444 7751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 282DEG 48KT 3475 7810 3452 7834
3437 7867

No, but they weakened. Not quite sure why this is warned anymore. There have been no reports of damaging winds and hail, and radar isn't indicating such.

Just heavy rain.
Good evening everyone! It has been an active two days of severe weather, hasn't it? Even if it is not the doom and gloom everyone was "hoping" for.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, but they weakened. Not quite sure why this is warned anymore. There have been no reports of damaging winds and hail, and radar isn't indicating such.

Just heavy rain.

Ah boo hoo, let me play you a sad song on the world's smallest violin:


Just messing with ya c, I wanted to do that. Yeah, the storms don't look impressive on radar, maybe next time.
Heat 102-87 Spurs, 3:55 remaining, 4th quarter

Cory Joseph is in for Tony Parker, I don't expect to see Parker again this game unless there's a miracle. Bosh pickpockets poor Joseph and the Heat take a 20 second timeout.

And... Yep, Popovich is emptying the bench.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Ah boo hoo, let me play you a sad song on the world's smallest violin:


Just messing with ya c, I wanted to do that. Yeah, the storms don't look impressive on radar, maybe next time.

You're just mad you missed the PDS watch yesterday.
Good evening friends!

Weather station in Kingston

Elevation: 223 m
Temperature: 26.1 °C
Dew Point: 21.7 °C
Humidity: 77%

Wind:

NNE at 4.8 km/h /
Wind Gust: 9.7 km/h /

Updated: 10:07 PM EST on June 13, 2013
Quoting GatorWX:


Pragmatic how?

Very well said by the way!
Not in the "factual" sense of pragmatic but rather the idea of "unemotional". I don't remember the exact wording of this year's announcement of the forecast, but I can see where it might come across as more strongly worded than usual.

Thanks for the compliment.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're just mad you missed the PDS watch yesterday.

Sorta...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Heat 102-87 Spurs, 3:55 remaining, 4th quarter

Cory Joseph is in for Tony Parker, I don't expect to see Parker again this game unless there's a miracle. Bosh pickpockets poor Joseph and the Heat take a 20 second timeout.

And... Yep, Popovich is emptying the bench.


This has been a great series so far.
Quoting nigel20:

This has been a great series so far.


Meh. I hate both teams, so I'm bored. However, Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 last night...
I'm going to call it a night. I have an early appointment in the a.m. and some stuff to get done before that. So I may be on briefly around three a.m. local time.

Stay safe and sleep tight...
Quoting wxchaser97:

Sorta...


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're just mad you missed the PDS watch yesterday.


LOL, where's the ROFL emoticon when I need it?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not in the "factual" sense of pragmatic but rather the idea of "unemotional". I don't remember the exact wording of this year's announcement of the forecast, but I can see where it might come across as more strongly worded than usual.

Thanks for the compliment.




Hey Baha!
How's the weather in Nassau at this time?
Quoting GatorWX:


My concern is the amount of moisture over the western Atlantic and carribean. Also, the high pressure that brought very sever drought to tx through a better part of those seasons, especially 2011? is absent. I'm basing my opinion mainly on the patterns I've noticed on satellites.

Yes I edited. Apparently I spend too much time on pandora and am in the top five percent of data users. Using an iPhone is now like using aol in 1994, pretty annoying. Anyway, I apologize.

Seriously, I still have no idea what you're talking about.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm going to call it a night. I have an early appointment in the a.m. and some stuff to get done before that. So I may be on briefly around three a.m. local time.

Stay safe and sleep tight...

GN, Baha, hope you have a nice rest.
Quoting Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

ZOOM into the Fla Straits and speed up the Loop.





Still monitoring that area in the Florida Straights..
Also, I should say to maybe justify my own "tone", I have been watching twc (when that was how the public did it) since Andrew I suppose and gradually matured to the weather sites on the internet. Charley hit about 15 miles south of me and I began to really study the weather. It's always been one of my strong subjects aside from my job. I have learned a lot from this blog and have discovered much valuable recourses for studying weather and I'm very appreciative of this. At the moment, I don't have internet aside from my phone, so I haven't been following much besides satellite loops and this blog. My instinct from everything I've learned and everything I've seen and read tells me this is probably going to be a bad year and not so much in the shear number of storms, but their distinctive potential and closeness to the US. I don't know if we will ever see a repeat of 2005, but one never knows obviously. There certainly seems to be an awful lot of once a century storms repeating themselves quite often. I'm not an alarmist, nor am I a young uneducated kid. I'm twenty eight and I have probably spent 90% of all days during hurricane season for the last 20 years watching twc or more recently using the Internet to study and observe the weather. I just I should throw that in to give anything I say pertaining to weather a bit more creedence.

Anyway, I really just wanted to see what everyone else's opinion was on the matter. Thanks everyone who contributes!
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening friends!

Weather station in Kingston

Elevation: 223 m
Temperature: 26.1 °C
Dew Point: 21.7 °C
Humidity: 77%

Wind:

NNE at 4.8 km/h /
Wind Gust: 9.7 km/h /

Updated: 10:07 PM EST on June 13, 2013

Good evening, Nigel. Just waiting for the last of the "derecho" to hit me. :-) I'm actually surprised the storms held together long enough to reach SE Alabama. I'm hoping for maybe a quarter incho of rain for the lawn. Anything else will be a bonus.
Quoting sar2401:

Seriously, I still have no idea what you're talking about.


Ok, I get it.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Meh. I hate both teams, so I'm bored. However, Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 last night...

I'm hoping that the Heat will win this series, but it will be highly dependent on Lebron's performance.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not in the "factual" sense of pragmatic but rather the idea of "unemotional". I don't remember the exact wording of this year's announcement of the forecast, but I can see where it might come across as more strongly worded than usual.

Thanks for the compliment.





Gotcha
Celtics in seven.....:) Bird, Parish, and McHale will come through for me.
664. I just minused you for the first time ever Nigel. :)
Quoting GatorWX:
Also, I should say to maybe justify my own "tone", I have been watching twc (when that was how the public did it) since Andrew I suppose and gradually matured to the weather sites on the internet. Charley hit about 15 miles south of me and I began to really study the weather. It's always been one of my strong subjects aside from my job. I have learned a lot from this blog and have discovered much valuable recourses for studying weather and I'm very appreciative of this. At the moment, I don't have internet aside from my phone, so I haven't been following much besides satellite loops and this blog. My instinct from everything I've learned and everything I've seen and read tells me this is probably going to be a bad year and not so much in the shear number of storms, but their distinctive potential and closeness to the US. I don't know if we will ever see a repeat of 2005, but one never knows obviously. There certainly seems to be an awful lot of once a century storms repeating themselves quite often. I'm not an alarmist, nor am I a young uneducated kid. I'm twenty eight and I have probably spent 90% of all days during hurricane season for the last 20 years watching twc or more recently using the Internet to study and observe the weather. I just I should throw that in to give anything I say pertaining to weather a bit more creedence.

Anyway, I really just wanted to see what everyone else's opinion was on the matter. Thanks everyone who contributes!



On the phone as well, will keep it short, but Hurricane Irene in 1999 was the first real Tropical Cyclone I was in the middle off, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma and Fay and numerous brushes or near misses continued to peak my curiosity. Eventually I bought a weathers station from Costco and I have been intrigued and fatuated ever since.
The song is wrong! Breaking up. It's not hard to do.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting sar2401:

Good evening, Nigel. Just waiting for the last of the "derecho" to hit me. :-) I'm actually surprised the storms held together long enough to reach SE Alabama. I'm hoping for maybe a quarter incho of rain for the lawn. Anything else will be a bonus.

Hopefully you'll get your wish! I love when the vegetation is lush and green...I get almost depressed when it's not like that.
Quoting Tribucanes:
I've always been proud to be an American. But less and less as our freedoms have been eroded. May we not forget what Benjamin Franklin said; "Those who would sacrifice civil liberties for security deserve neither." We are no longer a Democracy. We as a populace are too ignorant, and a more secretive government we've never had. I know it's harsh, but it's true.


Love the Franklin quote and agree with him 100%, but I'm curious...

Do you think people are more ignorant now than they used to be? Do you think the system is more corrupt now than it used to be?

I'm not so sure. I mean, the first known use of the word "propaganda" is 1718, so it's not like lying to win votes is a new practice... indeed the practice is older than the United States itself. And certainly treachery is as old as man. A brief study of human history will reveal breath-taking examples of mass deception, exploitation, repression, and flat out violence. That's not to excuse such acts in our modern times, but my point is that I'm not so sure our modern times are any worse than the "good ol' days"...
Quoting GatorWX:


Ok, I get it.


Just curious, do you have a prediction for how many storms/hurricanes/majors we are going to have this year? And if so, what is it?
Quoting GatorWX:
Also, I should say to maybe justify my own "tone", I have been watching twc (when that was how the public did it) since Andrew I suppose and gradually matured to the weather sites on the internet. Charley hit about 15 miles south of me and I began to really study the weather. It's always been one of my strong subjects aside from my job. I have learned a lot from this blog and have discovered much valuable recourses for studying weather and I'm very appreciative of this. At the moment, I don't have internet aside from my phone, so I haven't been following much besides satellite loops and this blog. My instinct from everything I've learned and everything I've seen and read tells me this is probably going to be a bad year and not so much in the shear number of storms, but their distinctive potential and closeness to the US. I don't know if we will ever see a repeat of 2005, but one never knows obviously. There certainly seems to be an awful lot of once a century storms repeating themselves quite often. I'm not an alarmist, nor am I a young uneducated kid. I'm twenty eight and I have probably spent 90% of all days during hurricane season for the last 20 years watching twc or more recently using the Internet to study and observe the weather. I just I should throw that in to give anything I say pertaining to weather a bit more creedence.

Anyway, I really just wanted to see what everyone else's opinion was on the matter. Thanks everyone who contributes!


Also been coming here since mid season '05 and I miss stormw. I know he has his own site, but I usually just come here for personal opinions. There are hardly any of the old regulars left with the exception of a few and users who may have different names.
Mr. Nixon your question deserves a complete response. My linage is as far back as Jefferson. I am a direct relative of. Thomas gave great verbiage on what a free society looks like. I'll get back to you.
Deck at sports bar collapses; Heat fans spilled into water
 
Palm Beach Post Staff Report

A deck behind a popular sports bar in Miami-Dade County collapsed Thursday night, spilling scores of customers watching the Heat-Spurs game into the bay waters.
The Miami Herald reported that the mishap occurred around 9:45 p.m. at Shuckers in North Bay Village, just off the northern portion of Miami Beach.

WSVN-Fox 7 reported that one person was hospitalized in critical condition and that four were listed in serious condition.

Chris Volz, 39, said he was sitting 10 feet from where the deck gave way. “It sounded like a freight train, then everyone was gone," he said.

Volz said bartenders dived into the water to help rescue patrons. Fire trucks pulled to the water’s edge and extended their ladders over the water to help customers climb to safety.
Traffic on the 79th Street Causeway was rerouted in both directions.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Just curious, do you have a prediction for how many storms/hurricanes/majors we are going to have this year? And if so, what is it?


No, I have no idea. Nobody knows that. I would guess 12+ though. My concern is for the potential for stronger storms closer to home, maybe not the total number as I find that to be somewhat erroneous or irrelevant to how severe a season to actually be. Maybe from a scientific standpoint, this would be relevant, but from a human standpoint, severity should be dependent on the destruction caused.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Just curious, do you have a prediction for how many storms/hurricanes/majors we are going to have this year? And if so, what is it?


And I'm guessing ace will stand out much more than the past few seasons in relation to the number of storms.
Quoting GatorWX:
Also, I should say to maybe justify my own "tone", I have been watching twc (when that was how the public did it) since Andrew I suppose and gradually matured to the weather sites on the internet. Charley hit about 15 miles south of me and I began to really study the weather. It's always been one of my strong subjects aside from my job. I have learned a lot from this blog and have discovered much valuable recourses for studying weather and I'm very appreciative of this. At the moment, I don't have internet aside from my phone, so I haven't been following much besides satellite loops and this blog. My instinct from everything I've learned and everything I've seen and read tells me this is probably going to be a bad year and not so much in the shear number of storms, but their distinctive potential and closeness to the US. I don't know if we will ever see a repeat of 2005, but one never knows obviously. There certainly seems to be an awful lot of once a century storms repeating themselves quite often. I'm not an alarmist, nor am I a young uneducated kid. I'm twenty eight and I have probably spent 90% of all days during hurricane season for the last 20 years watching twc or more recently using the Internet to study and observe the weather. I just I should throw that in to give anything I say pertaining to weather a bit more creedence.

Anyway, I really just wanted to see what everyone else's opinion was on the matter. Thanks everyone who contributes!

OK, let me ask you this. What exactly does your instinct tell you that this year is similar to 2005? Remember, after 2005, the "new normal" was going to be bad storms years every year. Instead, we are approaching a record for the longest time for a major hurricane not to hit the CONUS. Every year, some have predicted that this was going to be a bad year. I guess there are two way to go based on nothing but a hunch. One is that the longer we go between major events, the more likely one is to happen. Statistically, that really doesn't pan out, but it's common for people to feel that way. The other side is persistence. It's more likely that this year will be like last year, all other things being about equal. That's actually a more likely outcome statistically than this year will happen to be a repeat of 2005. Neither one is a very good predictor. Instinct, or "hunches", are about equal to a flip of the coin. I don't know what this season will turn out like, but I'm certain my instinct is not a good indicator.
Storms hit my area pretty hard, especially Walmart I work at. I got ton of pictures so I'll have to create a blog for y'all including my adventure around Walmart during the storm. The winds was little impressive, but the storm overall was pretty weak IMO. The damage at Walmart area had already been reported to SPC by someone. I heard trees were down, but didn't see them.
Quoting sar2401:

OK, let me ask you this. What exactly does your instinct tell you that this year is similar to 2005? Remember, after 2005, the "new normal" was going to be bad storms years every year. Instead, we are approaching a record for the longest time for a major hurricane not to hit the CONUS. Every year, some have predicted that this was going to be a bad year. I guess there are two way to go based on nothing but a hunch. One is that the longer we go between major events, the more likely one is to happen. Statistically, that really doesn't pan out, but it's common for people to feel that way. The other side is persistence. It's more likely that this year will be like last year, all other things being about equal. That's actually a more likely outcome statistically than this year will happen to be a repeat of 2005. Neither one is a very good predictor. Instinct, or "hunches", are about equal to a flip of the coin. I don't know what this season will turn out like, but I'm certain my instinct is not a good indicator.


I'm not going to debate you or get into it with you. I'm not sure of your intent, but it seems a bit threatening and I really don't know if I should waste my time. I will say I'm basing my opinion on a bit more than a hunch, but I'm probably not going to be able to make agree with anything I say.
Quoting sar2401:

Allan, originally from Ohio, then California for forty years, and Alabama for the past seven years. Funny you should think Belize though, as I've spent many vacations diving there and then visiting the jungle and Mayan sites in the Mopan River (Playa del Carmen) area and across the border in Guatemala. I've been on several mission trips to Catacamas as out church has a school and computer center there.

I know what you mean about losing your TV to the power outages. We have a generator there with an automatic transfer switch and a line conditioner because of low voltage, and we still lose one or two computers a year to power spikes or severe undervoltage. ENEE is certainly not well loved by the Honduran people, but the private power companies don't seem to have done much better.

I found a picture of the train. It's not the steam engine that's on display, this one was in working order in 2005. Have you seen this one. As you can probably tell, I like trains. :-)
Yes I have seen it.I don`t go to much now there as they steal and assault a lot so I am not sure if its there.I really thought you were from Belize I had a gut feeling but oh well.
Sar2401, sorry I kind of jumped to a conclusion before after reading only the first half of your comment. As I said, I'm not sure we'll see a repeat of 2005 ever again in our lifetimes, but the increasing repetition of castrophic weather events around the world and what we've experienced here with coastal and inland flooding, drought, heat waves strange, persistent patterns in the jetstream, severe weather outbreaks and tropical cyclones, etc leads me to believe that any statements that implies every season after 2005 will be catastrophic and hyperactive is certainly going out on a limb, however as I stated about the ongoing and recent weather events and climatological patterns leads me to believe any season has the potential to be a very bad one and not only with total number of storms but destructive storms. I do think that in the future we will see many more sandy type storms as well. The deeper parts of the Atlantic may hold on to to typical tropical cyclones, but the mid lats I think will likely see a far greater number of very powerful nor'easter type storms. It seems to me the jet stream is situating itself further south and helping to inject much more baroclonic energy into storms transitioning extra tropical and to winter storms than in the past. Ultimately I base my judgement on this season being a bad one on a number of things, so if I maybe came across as naive at all, I can assure you I know a little. This year we've already seen a couple epac storms, the jetstream pattern I mentioned as well as the blocking patterns that have been persistent, tchp and surface temps, my assumption that pressures have run low, the amplitude of waves we've seen already, a strongly evident and convective itcz absent a strong mjo, lighter than average trade winds, the location of the Bermuda high and the amount of ridging, the lack of a tx high, also, I'm assuming African dust has been a bit held back. The waves and the itcz has been carrying over quite a bit of moisture, leading me to believe the sal is far enough north to allow it. Again, only have I phone right now for Internet, so my time viewing weather currently is pretty limited. I think the things that worry me most are the seemingly high level of instability both in the atl and us, the jet stream patterns and the amount of ridging, but not the strength. Anyway, that's about as long winded as I feel like being on my phone.
Good grief.
Quoting muddertracker:
Good grief.

We're next door!!

:)
Here's footage from the northern Illinois tornado outbreak