WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Severe thunderstorms erupt along a swath 1,500 miles long, killing 2

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on July 27, 2012

A huge outbreak of severe thunderstorms hit the nation on Thursday, causing damage in fifteen states and knocking out power to over 250,000 customers. Two people were killed, one by a falling tree in Pennsylvania, and one due to a lightning strike in New York. Two possible tornadoes touched down: one in Elmira, New York and another in Brookville, PA. The severe storms covered an unusually large area, erupting along a 1,500-mile long swath of the country from Texas to Connecticut. The intensity of the thunderstorms was increased by a very hot and moist airmass; temperatures in the mid to upper 90s were common across the region Thursday. A number of record highs for the date were set, including a 98° reading at Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport. The threat of severe weather continues for Friday afternoon over portions of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed these regions in their "Slight Risk" area for severe thunderstorms.


Figure 1. A rare sight: at 7 pm EDT on July 26, 2012, severe thunderstorm warnings were in effect for 132 counties in 15 states along a swath 1,500 miles long.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image taken at 7:02 pm EDT July 26, 2012, of the line of severe thunderstorms that extended from Texas to Connecticut. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 3. An imposing sight: A squall line of severe thunderstorms with two bowing segments takes aim at New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey on July 26, 2012. The tip of a bow echo typically has the most violent winds in a severe thunderstorm.

Was Thursday's outbreak a derecho?
Thursday's outbreak of severe thunderstorms was not nearly as violent as the June 29 - 30 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho, since the atmosphere wasn't as unstable. The June 29 storm was one of the most destructive and deadly severe thunderstorm complexes in North American history. It killed 22 people, knocked out power to at least 3.7 million customers, and did hundreds of millions in damage. There were 871 reports of damaging winds logged by the next day, and 36 of the thunderstorms had wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. In contrast, yesterday's event had only two thunderstorms with wind gusts in excess of 74 mph, and 383 reports of damaging winds. We can probably classify yesterday's severe thunderstorm event as a weak derecho, since it met the main criteria, as defined by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center: "A derecho is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."


Figure 4. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 374 reports of damaging winds from Thursday's severe thunderstorms. Two of these thunderstorms had winds in excess of hurricane force (65 knots, or 74 mph.)


Figure 5. The climatology of derecho events over the U.S. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic. A strong tropical wave is expected to bring heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Tuesday, but none of the models are developing the wave. The NOGAPS computer model is suggesting development of a second tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands August 2 - 3.

Have a great Olympic weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Intense
Intense
We had high winds and heavy rain, but fortunately not serious damage. Prayers for everyone in the path of this massive storm.
Crazy Lightning in Rhode Island
Crazy Lightning in Rhode Island
Lightning from storms that slammed the Northeast today. This is at Charlestown Beach in Charlestown, Rhode Island.
BeforeTheStorm
BeforeTheStorm
at times there were gust of wind that would stir up the dirt as you can see to the right in this photo. We finally got a real good rain that lasted a while. Was under one Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
Swirling clouds
Swirling clouds
As the strom approaches the clouds are rolling over themselves and swirling into each other. Rapidly!
Shelf Cloud over the Bronx
Shelf Cloud over the Bronx
Taken just before thunderstorm.

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3002. DDR
Hey Nigel what river is that?
3003. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:
May skip Taiwan




They should still get quite a bit of rain though.
JTWC now forecasts Saola to become a Cat 3... And the official track forecast has shifted right, so landfall on Taiwan may not happen:



This is for Damrey:

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Just checked the standings and if I'm not mistaken Spain has been eliminated.
yes my country has eliminate Spain if you came here right now everyone is on the street celebrating.;)
.
China is up to 12 medals, and the United States remains second with 11. Italy is third with 7.

China is allowed to beat us in intelligence, but not sports.
Just woke up from nap... anything new?
3009. spathy
Quoting Levi32:


It's the multidecadal cycle in Sahel rainfall. From what I can tell there is little research yet on the subject, and little is known about why this cycle exists. We are on our way out of an African drought that began in the 1970s.



Some info on the data found here


I remember the continuous advertisements for helping the drought victims in the 70 and 80.

It was and is still a major part of the reason there is so much conflict over there.
Quoting Levi32:


It's the multidecadal cycle in Sahel rainfall. From what I can tell there is little research yet on the subject, and little is known about why this cycle exists. We are on our way out of an African drought that began in the 1970s.



Some info on the data found here
Ah figured that graph was gonna pop up lol

I kinda wonder how accurate the precipitation record is over the Sahel region, especially going back in the early to mid part of the century. Or maybe not so much the accuracy but the coverage over the region and how well it reflects what is actually occurring since weather observations are pretty damn sparse over the Sahel.

Regardless, the trend is pretty clear and this year has been above aberage so we'll have to see if it continues to cycle up the next few years. But it makes me wonder what is modulating this cycle.
3011. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


It's the multidecadal cycle in Sahel rainfall. From what I can tell there is little research yet on the subject, and little is known on why this cycle exists. We are on our way out of an African drought that began in the 1970s.



Some info on the data found here


Interesting that you should mention that. As a matter of fact, some interesting research has been done on that. It has been studied a little more closely recently due to the current drought conditions in the US. They have correlated it to the warm AMO which shows a pattern of increased rainfall in the Sahel and even India. It seems from what I remember that the great droughts of the 1930's and 1950's here corresponded with a positive phase of the AMO. As a matter of fact, paleoclimatologists have been trying to find a consistent pattern going back a few thousand years on this very subject. An acquaintance of mine in Europe has done some research on this. His name is Gert Van Oldenborgh. You might find it of interest.
3012. nigel20
Quoting DDR:
Hey Nigel what river is that?

That's the Rio Cobre river. The river usually over top the road during heavy rain. A four lane bypass is being created and should be completed next year.

3013. nigel20
Quoting allancalderini:
yes my country has eliminate Spain if you came here right now everyone is on the street celebrating.;)

In football (Soccer)?
Quoting nigel20:
Jamaica has sustain in excess of US$1 billion in damages from tropical storms and hurricanes over the past decade primarily to agriculture and our road network.

IMG style="WIDTH: 500px; MAX-WIDTH: 501px"

Nigel...Ya canna cross it..Bus can swim
Quoting Grothar:


Interesting that you should mention that. As a matter of fact, some interesting research has been done on that. It has been studied a little more closely recently due to the current drought conditions in the US. They have correlated it to the warm AMO which shows a pattern of increased rainfall in the Sahel and even India. It seems from what I remember that the great droughts of the 1930's and 1950's here corresponded with a positive phase of the AMO. As a matter of fact, paleoclimatologists have been trying to find a consistent pattern going back a few thousand years on this very subject. An acquaintance of mine in Europe has done some research on this. His name is Gert Van Oldenborgh. You might find it of interest.

I don't understand that. How are they basing it on the warm AMO when that deals with Sea Surface Temperature variability and not increased rainfall patterns across specific continents/countries?

Maybe I'm just dumb. :P
3017. spathy
The importance of the AMO to drought and thus heat) was shown by McCabe (2004):



Credit link.



Link
So it looks like 2012 will join 2009, 2004, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1993, 1992, and so on as one of those years where a storm never managed to form in July. Pfffft. When I was younger I used a hold a grudge against years like this, lol.
3019. nigel20
Quoting superpete:

You saw the video...lol
"nobody cannot cross it"
Quoting aquak9:
<>em


so i guess you think its alright to come here and swear at other bloggers and make threats against them with no regards and just have a free for all with no policing what so ever nice

i did not think u were like that

guess i was wrong huh
going too take a shower
I have a question about the models. Why the operational runs of some models (GFS to name one) are different in terms of tracks and intensity from the ensemble ones in many ocasions?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
China is up to 12 medals, and the United States remains second with 11. Italy is third with 7.

China is allowed to beat us in intelligence, but not sports.
China is really taking over, I'd only expect them to become more dominant in the Olympics over the next few decades...and not just in the Olympics.
3028. spathy
You Go Girl.
Thats my water doggie!
3029. nigel20
Quoting ENSO2012:


''Nobody''

That was just a typo.
Hope that wave wont disappear before reaching us...

Quoting wxgeek723:
So it looks like 2012 will join 2009, 2004, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1993, 1992, and so on as one of those years where a storm never managed to form in July. Pfffft. When I was younger I used a hold a grudge against years like this, lol.
whats strange about this july this year is how active may and june was in both tropical storms and number of tornados. i believe this july record low number of tornados also
3032. nigel20
Quoting TomTaylor:
China is really taking over, I'd only expect them to become more dominant in the Olympics over the next few decades...and not just in the Olympics.

Agreed.
Quoting TomTaylor:
China is really taking over, I'd only expect them to become more dominant in the Olympics over the next few decades...and not just in the Olympics.


If the trend from 2008 continues....

See 2008 Olympics medal results...

Link
3034. spathy
Whats the weather like; over the pond,for the Olympics?
3035. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't understand that. How are they basing it on the warm AMO when that deals with Sea Surface Temperature variability and not increased rainfall patterns across specific continents/countries?

Maybe I'm just dumb. :P


Maybe! I don't know. I read the original article in Dutch, so maybe I misunderstood it. Actually, it is a good question. Since it is a relatively new study, they are using different methods, some removing the SST's from the equation and others taking an average over a longer period of time. As a matter of fact, one of the problems they have is understanding the Thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. It is still a work in progress, and certain members have found little correlation between increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic and a positive phase of the AMO, although it cannot be ruled out. The research on this is very interesting and little known outside of the field itself.
Quoting wxgeek723:
So it looks like 2012 will join 2009, 2004, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1993, 1992, and so on as one of those years where a storm never managed to form in July. Pfffft. When I was younger I used a hold a grudge against years like this, lol.
I asually hold a grudge where storms don`t form in the months of the hurricane season.like the years you mention.
Quoting nigel20:

In football (Soccer)?
yes soccer my friend Nigel.
We will have a major hurricane this year.

I understand that it's a bold prediction, but this is just a show of the confidence I have in my forecasting skills.
3040. VR46L
Quoting spathy:
Whats the weather like; over the pond,for the Olympics?


Spathy Its a disaster for them .. rain all week and a rather nasty storm on wednesday
3041. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:


If the trend from 2008 continues....

See 2008 Olympics medal results...

Link

That's quite remarkable...Jamaica placed 14th in the medal table considering that we have a population of 2.7 million.
It's been entertaining reading back thru the posts from earlier today. Glad to see it's all "kumbaya" for the time being. As for tropical weather, I'm rooting for all re-curves before they get to the islands and any that develope in close, remain discombobulated.
Grothar, How do you see this? Which wave you think goes ahead and develop?

Quoting HimacaneBrees:
We will have a major hurricane this year.

I understand that it's a bold prediction, but this is just a show of the confidence I have in my forecasting skills.



3rd week of August and it'll re-curve.
3045. ncstorm
Quoting VR46L:


Spathy Its a disaster for them .. rain all week and a rather nasty storm on wednesday


they should really take in account of weather climates to hold these Olympics in different countries..those poor cyclists were just running over each other this morning due to the wet roads..about every event that was outside that I watched so far was rained on..
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
We will have a major hurricane this year.

I understand that it's a bold prediction, but this is just a show of the confidence I have in my forecasting skills.
i have to agree with that. I also predict your tigers will be in the mix again this year
3047. nigel20
Quoting allancalderini:
yes soccer my friend Nigel.

That is a big surprise...maybe the biggest of the Olympics so far. That would not be Spain's strongest team though, as you can only use three players above the age of 23 years.
3049. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


they should really take in account of weather climates to hold these Olympics in different countries..those poor cyclists were just running over each other this morning due to the wet roads..about every event that was outside that I watched so far was rained on..


I get your point but as a other side of the pond dweller I like the occassional major sports events on my timezone lol
Quoting floridaT:
i have to agree with that. I also predict your tigers will be in the mix again this year



I completely and totally agree with you as well. A 14-0 record is my prediction this year for my Tigah's. I am so ready for Sept. 1. I can't wait for it to start.
Quoting ncstorm:


they should really take in account of weather climates to hold these Olympics in different countries..those poor cyclists were just running over each other this morning due to the wet roads..about every event that was outside that I watched so far was rained on..
i would have to believe the athletes would prefer wet to 103 degrees and humid
3052. ncstorm
Quoting VR46L:


I get your point but as a other side of the pond dweller I like the occassional major sports events on my timezone lol


tell em to turn on the sunshine..LOL..those injuries are racking up for some folks
3053. spathy
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's been entertaining reading back thru the posts from earlier today. Glad to see it's all "kumbaya" for the time being. As for tropical weather, I'm rooting for all re-curves before they get to the islands and any that develope in close, remain discombobulated.


PDoug.
You remember the whole conversation about re-curve?

To this day I cant read that term without a chuckle.
I have been wanting to post that for a while now.
I thought you might be one of the people that would understand and chuckle along with me.
3054. ncstorm
the fact that Jim Cantore is in London helps a little..
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



3rd week of August and it'll re-curve.


I made a bold forecast. You made an extremely bold forecast. I like it. It shows confidence.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



3rd week of August and it'll re-curve.

I disagree. To re-curve you have to curve at least once. I don't see a storm doing that.

It may curve out to sea. :)
3058. ncstorm
London, England
Weather Detailed Forecast

*
Today
29 Jul
Thunderstorms
Hi : 63°
Lo : 50°
Thunderstorms
Wind 11 mph WSW
Humidity 62%
Precip chance : 98%
*
Tomorrow
30 Jul
Showers / Clear
Hi : 65°
Lo : 51°
Showers / Clear
Wind 14 mph WSW
Humidity 46%
Precip chance : 80%
*
Tuesday
31 Jul
Showers
Hi : 71°
Lo : 57°
Showers
Wind 13 mph WSW
Humidity 58%
Precip chance : 90%
*
Wednesday
01 Aug
Showers / Clear
Hi : 72°
Lo : 58°
Showers / Clear
Wind 17 mph SSW
Humidity 58%
Precip chance : 90%
*
Thursday
02 Aug
Showers / Clear
Hi : 68°
Lo : 57°
Showers / Clear
Wind 17 mph SW
Humidity 63%
Precip chance : 85%
*
Friday
03 Aug
Showers / Clear
Hi : 69°
Lo : 55°
Showers / Clear
Wind 17 mph SW
Humidity 48%
Precip chance : 80%
*
Saturday
04 Aug
Showers / Clear
Hi : 68°
Lo : 55°
Showers / Clear
Wind 13 mph SW
Humidity 49%
Precip chance : 90%
*
Sunday
05 Aug
Showers / Clear
Hi : 68°
Lo : 54°
Showers / Clear
Wind 10 mph SW
Humidity 63%
Precip chance : 85%
*
Monday
06 Aug
Showers / Clear
Hi : 68°
Lo : 54°
Showers / Clear
Wind 11 mph WSW
Humidity 55%
Precip chance : 90%
*
Tuesday
07 Aug
Light Showers
Hi : 68°
Lo : 54°
Light Showers
Wind 11 mph WNW
Humidity 49%
Precip chance : 75%

3059. nigel20
Quoting floridaT:
i would have to believe the athletes would prefer wet to 103 degrees and humid

Sprinters prefer dry and warm weather, but not 103 degrees.
3060. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
the fact that Jim Cantore is in London helps a little..


I thought he was supposed to turn storms the other way!!!
3061. spathy
Quoting VR46L:


Spathy Its a disaster for them .. rain all week and a rather nasty storm on wednesday


Thats not good.
Are most of the track and field events outside or in?

Or for that matter what are the scheduled outside venues.

Please keep in mind the weather if someone replys.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



3rd week of August and it'll re-curve.


Lol, don't see much re-curve action happening this year ladies and gents
3063. nigel20
Eastern Tropical Atlantic
3064. ncstorm
Quoting VR46L:


I thought he was supposed to turn storms the other way!!!


exactly..it would be much worse if he wasnt there..
There's some real hot and dry weather coming to much most of the U.S. over the next two weeks. Should be fun. :-\ (Keep in mind that the temperature maps below don't show the actual temperatures expected, but the chance of those temps being above normal.)

hot and dry

hot and dry

hot and dry

hot and dry

Outlook-wise: severe drought is to be expected for all or parts of 36 states

hot and dry
Quoting allancalderini:
I know this is off topic but I had seen people in here post about the Olympic games I just want to say that we win to Spain 1-0 and now Spain is eliminate from Football.I think.
HOnduras ha eliminada a Espana???

Are u serious?

3068. nigel20
Quoting spathy:


Thats not good.
Are most of the track and field events outside or in?

Or for that matter what are the scheduled outside venues.

Please keep in mind the weather if someone replys.

All of the track and field events are kept outside, so they prefer dry and warm weather.
5.4°C (41.7°C)was the temp here in Sydney overnight. Currently 6.1°C(42.9°F) at 07:45.
Quoting floridaT:
i would have to believe the athletes would prefer wet to 103 degrees and humid


+1
Quoting ENSO2012:


Not even that; he just trolled an irrational statement, if you will. Pretty comical, eh?

Thanks for bringing humor to my Sunday evening, Dough!





I've been saying 1st 'cane 3rd week of August since Debby died back in June. 3rd week of Aug is high season for a major tho.
3073. VR46L
Quoting spathy:


Thats not good.
Are most of the track and field events outside or in?

Or for that matter what are the scheduled outside venues.

Please keep in mind the weather if someone replys.


Track and field is all outdoor ..Most of the cycling will be indoors . Thanks spathy:) ...I havent checked for next week but I know there is entire model consensus for this week and its terrible
3074. ncstorm
track and field are my favorite events..but Usain is a monster..I dont think anyone is going to be able to outrun him
Quoting spathy:


PDoug.
You remember the whole conversation about re-curve?

To this day I cant read that term without a chuckle.
I have been wanting to post that for a while now.
I thought you might be one of the people that would understand and chuckle along with me.


Yes, I remember!
3076. DDR
Quoting nigel20:

That's the Rio Cobre river. The river usually over top the road during heavy rain. A four lane bypass is being created and should be completed next year.


Thanks for the info Nigel ;)
3077. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


Interesting that you should mention that. As a matter of fact, some interesting research has been done on that. It has been studied a little more closely recently due to the current drought conditions in the US. They have correlated it to the warm AMO which shows a pattern of increased rainfall in the Sahel and even India. It seems from what I remember that the great droughts of the 1930's and 1950's here corresponded with a positive phase of the AMO. As a matter of fact, paleoclimatologists have been trying to find a consistent pattern going back a few thousand years on this very subject. An acquaintance of mine in Europe has done some research on this. His name is Gert Van Oldenborgh. You might find it of interest.


I have heard the AMO theory, and it seems at first to make sense as far as the meteorological principle that warmer oceans relative to continents draws more convection to the oceans at the expense of the continents. However, it doesn't hold up in relation to the Sahel specifically when you look at how the AMO was negative during the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, opposite of the proposed relationship. In fact the correlation is better the other way around, with a negative AMO during droughts and positive AMO during wet periods. However, the Sahel has remained drier than normal well after 1995 when the AMO last turned positive, deviating from the possible relationship. Additionally, the AMO has a period of approximately 70 years, while the apparent Sahel rainfall cycle has a period of about 100 years. They don't correlate particularly well, especially recently.



3079. spathy
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's some real hot and dry weather coming to much most of the U.S. over the next two weeks. Should be fun. :-\ (Keep in mind that the temperature maps below don't show the actual temperatures expected, but the chance of those temps being above normal.)

hot and dry

hot and dry

hot and dry

hot and dry

Outlook-wise: severe drought is to be expected for all or parts of 36 states

hot and dry


I bet the unusually cold summer in Alaska is fun too


:-/


....
3080. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


exactly..it would be much worse if he wasnt there..


LOL

Quoting ncstorm:
track and field are my favorite events..but Usain is a monster..I dont think anyone is going to be able to outrun him



I could!!!










(If the cops were chasing me)
3082. nigel20
Quoting DDR:

Thanks for the info Nigel ;)

No problem!
3083. DDR
Quoting AussieStorm:
5.4°C (41.7°C)was the temp here in Sydney overnight. Currently 6.1°C(42.9°F) at 07:45.

Is this normal temps aussie
Tropical Atlantic:

3085. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Grothar, How do you see this? Which wave you think goes ahead and develop?



Right now there is a pretty strong ULL over the Central Atlantic that is not going to help development of the first wave. Also, very dry air is still present. The 2nd wave should be able to moisten the atmosphere pretty good. With the MJO being a a little more favorable this week, there is a good chance the second wave might be able to overcome the negatives, but I don't see it yet. The wave emerging from Africa today is looking better to me. The first wave should be near the southern Bahamas in a few days, but I do not see it very strong.



Quoting nigel20:

That's quite remarkable...Jamaica placed 14th in the medal table considering that we have a population of 2.7 million.
Not bad... we placed [ok, it was only 64th] with less than 350,000 pple... no gold last time, though...
3087. ncstorm
84 hours in

3088. spathy
Quoting Levi32:


I have heard the AMO theory, and it seems at first to make sense as far as the meteorological principle that warmer oceans relative to continents draws more convection to the oceans at the expense of the continents. However, it doesn't hold up in relation to the Sahel specifically when you look at how the AMO was negative during the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, opposite of the proposed relationship. Additionally, the AMO has a period of approximately 70 years, while the apparent Sahel rainfall cycle has a period of about 100 years. They don't correlate well at all.





Those two graphs look to me like there must be some sort of third factor involved in the Sahel rainfall cycle.
But possibly involve the other two just the same.
JMO

In other words what unknown factor was in play when the two did correlate?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I disagree. To re-curve you have to curve at least once. I don't see a storm doing that.

It may curve out to sea. :)
Do we have to go through the whole technical explanation again???

LOL

They almost all recurve... it's not when, it's WHERE that matters...
3091. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not bad... we placed [ok, it was only 64th] with less than 350,000 pple... no gold last time, though...

I'm hoping that we do just as good or better in this Olympics.
Western Atlantic:

3093. Levi32
Quoting spathy:


Those two graphs look to me like there must be some sort of third factor involved in the Sahel rainfall cycle.
But possibly involve the other two just the same.
JMO

In other words what unknown factor was in play when the two did correlate?


There are likely a number of things that influence African rainfall, AMO included. The weather is rarely cut-and-dried with pattern explanations.
Quoting DDR:

Is this normal temps aussie

compared to the last few La Nina years it's colder now we are in El Nino.
3095. spathy
Quoting BahaHurican:
Do we have to go through the whole technical explanation again???

LOL

They almost all recurve... it's not when, it's WHERE that matters...


What was it.
Its been too long.

When they first curve and then continue to curve its a recurve?
As opposed to a traditional meaning of the term, ie Loop?

It was a fascinating although heated conversation.
I Probably should not bring it up.
3096. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
Do we have to go through the whole technical explanation again???

LOL

They almost all recurve... it's not when, it's WHERE that matters...

I think that he would prefer cure out to sea instead of recurve.
Quoting Grothar:


Right now there is a pretty strong ULL over the Central Atlantic that is not going to help development of the first wave. Also, very dry air is still present. The 2nd wave should be able to moisten the atmosphere pretty good. With the MJO being a a little more favorable this week, there is a good chance the second wave might be able to overcome the negatives, but I don't see it yet. The wave emerging from Africa today is looking better to me. The first wave should be near the southern Bahamas in a few days, but I do not see it very strong.





We have a 70% chance of rain for Monday thru Tuesday with the first wave. I dont rule out some squally showers as wave moves thru.I agree that the one emerging today looks good.
Heading south again:

108 hours
3100. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


I have heard the AMO theory, and it seems at first to make sense as far as the meteorological principle that warmer oceans relative to continents draws more convection to the oceans at the expense of the continents. However, it doesn't hold up in relation to the Sahel specifically when you look at how the AMO was negative during the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, opposite of the proposed relationship. In fact the correlation is better the other way around, with a negative AMO during droughts and positive AMO during wet periods. However, the Sahel has remained drier than normal well after 1995 when the AMO last turned positive, deviating from the possible relationship. Additionally, the AMO has a period of approximately 70 years, while the apparent Sahel rainfall cycle has a period of about 100 years. They don't correlate particularly well, especially recently.





Yes, but I was referring to the droughts in the US, not the Sahel. The AMO was in a warm phase during that time.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





I've been saying 1st 'cane 3rd week of August since Debby died back in June. 3rd week of Aug is high season for a major tho.


One point to keep in mind with "Cape Verde" Atlantic hurricanes, is that historically, most of these storms do re-curve without directly affecting the US.
3102. spathy
Quoting Levi32:


There are likely a number of things that influence African rainfall, AMO included. The weather is rarely cut-and-dried with pattern explanations.


That is true for sure.

But patterns can give insight to probabilities.

Or is that recurring patterns LOL.
3103. DDR
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Heading south again:


Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Heading south again:


Is that a Tropical storm or Hurricane?
126 hours
Quoting DDR:


Is that a Tropical storm or Hurricane?
Tropical storm, the pressure was 1005mb at 120 hours.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


One point to keep in mind with "Cape Verde" Atlantic hurricanes, is that historically, most of these storms do re-curve without directly affecting the US.


Look at it this way, the last true CV storm to hit the United States was 4 years ago.
Quoting ENSO2012:


Que semejante barbaridad, Baha, @_____@, WOW.
yes is true.;)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Do we have to go through the whole technical explanation again???

LOL

They almost all recurve... it's not when, it's WHERE that matters...
for a good definition of re-curve look up a pic of a re-curve bow as in archery
132hrs, maybe starting to go north a little
GFS trending noticeably stronger this run.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
6:00 AM JST July 30 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (985 hPa) located at 19.3N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 21.2N 124.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South Of Okinawa
45 HRS: 22.5N 123.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 24.2N 122.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - South of Okinawa

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
6:00 AM JST July 30 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (996 hPa) located at 25.3N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.7N 141.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
45 HRS: 28.7N 136.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 31.1N 130.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South of Kyushu
** WTPQ20 BABJ 292100 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS SAOLA 1209 (1209) INITIAL TIME 292100 UTC
00HR 19.5N 125.0E 980HPA 30M/S
30KTS 440KM
50KTS 70KM
P12HR NNW 7KM/H
P+24HR 20.9N 124.3E 965HPA 38M/S
P+48HR 22.5N 124.5E 955HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 24.8N 122.3E 940HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 26.5N 119.7E 970HPA 35M/S
P+120HR 27.9N 116.7E 1002HPA 16M/S=

CMA forecast 100 knots (2 min avg) for Saola just offshore of eastern China in 72 hours...
3114. nigel20

BBL
Strengthening at 138 hours
3117. Grothar
As you know, I don't know much about language, but recurve is a proper term in meteorology.
Quoting spathy:


Those two graphs look to me like there must be some sort of third factor involved in the Sahel rainfall cycle.
But possibly involve the other two just the same.
JMO

In other words what unknown factor was in play when the two did correlate?
PDO?

150 hours:



looks like a horrible crash only with tropical cyclones
3121. ncstorm
156 hours
156 hours
162 hours, still alive
Saola looks to be wrapping up, may be trying to form an eye:

3125. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
going too take a shower



fish shower curtains???lol had to say it taz..
3126. ncstorm
168 hours
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Saola looks to be wrapping up, may be trying to form an eye:


Trending more north i see. I can hear the jaws music already
3129. ryang
GFS takes it right over my house in about a week's time.
Anybody else notice that the Google diver is perched to land on concrete?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Saola looks to be wrapping up, may be trying to form an eye:


Its trying to form an eye

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


looks like a horrible crash only with tropical cyclones

Could pose a really heavy rain threat with lots of flooding.
3133. ncstorm
177 hours
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Is that a really large eyewall forming?
Quoting nigel20:

I'm hoping that we do just as good or better in this Olympics.
The Caribbean collectively did pretty well last time, even if it's only CARICOM we r thinking about.

I know some of our stronger athletes are at retirement age, and I don't think we have a lot of new-generation athletes in medal position this time around. Hopefully we can still do well, and hopefully the wx doesn't hold us back...
180 hours, I think the pressure is 1000mb but I can't really tell.
I know we're all busy hitting that F5 button as the new frames of the GFS run come in, but if you can make time for it I wrote a new blog :)
Quoting ncstorm:
168 hours
that far south it will not make landfall in CA or MX?
Quoting yoboi:



fish shower curtains???lol had to say it taz..



sorry i dont have any fish shower curtains this the norml kind of curtains
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Is that a really large eyewall forming?

I don't know how typhoon's wrap up, so I'll get back to you in 24 hours or so.
Quoting wxchaser97:
180 hours, I think the pressure is 1000mb but I can't really tell.

It's 1003mb.
3142. ncstorm
183 hours
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's 1003mb.
Thanks, I see it now.
3144. spathy
Quoting BahaHurican:
PDO?



?
I dunna know!

You got a Pacific Decade oscilatory thingy chart available to overlay and see?

Who knows we could solve a mystery or confuse Me even further.

Isnt that what we are here for?
And dont say yes we are here to confuse Spathy.
Thats a given!

what happen too ESNO2012 he sould be here watch the mode runs
192, pressure is 1002mb and staying alive.
Tropical Atlantic beginning to heat up...I updated my blog with another daily post.

See paragraph P8 of the post for tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles...and see paragraph P9 for tropical low in eastern Atlantic.

While both features are seeing the same favorable upper winds...the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles right now is near stronger dry air...and is moving into the less favorable inverted upper trough mentioned in paragraph P8. The east Atlantic tropical low in paragraph P9 is further away from dry air & all inverted upper troughs...and has model support.

In conclusion...I see the east Atlantic tropical low as a more dangerous feature than the tropical wave currently approaching the Lesser Antilles...but I'd watch both...
3148. ncstorm
192 hours

204 hours, not much change
Quoting spathy:


What was it.
Its been too long.

When they first curve and then continue to curve its a recurve?
As opposed to a traditional meaning of the term, ie Loop?

It was a fascinating although heated conversation.
I Probably should not bring it up.
Quoting nigel20:

I think that he would prefer cure out to sea instead of recurve.
Recurve is a "met" term used to describe the typically parabolic nature of TC tracks. Most in the N hemisphere go WEST, then recurve to the EAST. The implication is that the Wward track is along a curve, followed by an Eward track back to where the storm came from [along another curve, if u want to think of it that way].
3151. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:
192, pressure is 1002mb and staying alive.


and look towards africa
3152. java162
Quoting wxchaser97:
192, pressure is 1002mb and staying alive.


with models showing central pressure of 1000mb this far out, do u think it will materialize into something much worse?
Quoting Tazmanian:
what happen too ESNO2012 he sould be here watch the mode runs

Yeah it's a lot more boring posting the new frames if he's not here to comment on every single one.

228 hours: The Caribbean islands and Caribbean shear rip it apart:

Unless the strong high situation changes, one would expect more

southerly tracks for storms this year. Is that logical?
3155. ncstorm
its moving north
Quoting ENSO2012:


Over my dead body! NEVER EVER shall China be superior to the world's number one, absolute superpower of all time, The United States of America.

Marvel them so much? Then go move over there and grovel at their..
Your posts make me laugh, thanks for the entertaient
3157. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
what happen too ESNO2012 he sould be here watch the mode runs



i think he got a red flag warn should be back in 24..
3158. spathy
Quoting aspectre:
Anybody else notice that the Google diver is perched to land on concrete?


I would have never noticed the scale was off.
Are you an architect?
She is way forward in the scale.
Or was it just your suggestion that put that in my head? LOL.
Quoting java162:


with models showing central pressure of 1000mb this far out, do u think it will materialize into something much worse?

If it goes into the Caribbean then no, but if it goes north it could turn into a hurricane.
Quoting aspectre:
Anybody else notice that the Google diver is perched to land on concrete?


i noticed that too
3162. ncstorm
restrengthening at 252 hours
276 hours, does this look familiar from an earlier run.
Quoting ENSO2012:


SHUT UP, @_____________@.




you been reported
3165. ncstorm
312 hours
The 12Z GFS is almost identical to last night's 00Z run. I still think it has the system too far south, but at least it shows it curving up in the central Caribbean. That's a start.
312 hours
288 hours... Here's your FL monster JFV :)

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah it's a lot more boring posting the new frames if he's not here to comment on every single one.

228 hours: The Caribbean islands and Caribbean shear rip it apart:

Oh my if the track that the Gfs is showing verifies and this storm becomes Ernesto it would be like the one of 2006 almost similar tracks.
324 hours
Quoting ENSO2012:

Over my dead body!

Is that a threat, or a promise?
3172. yoboi
got to 97 here today in swla...this week should be hot.
The GFS takes the remnant low from that little FL storm all the way into the SE... This would be great for drought relief if it verified:

Quoting wxchaser97:
324 hours

Nice wave/low near Cape Verde.
3176. spathy
Quoting BahaHurican:
Recurve is a "met" term used to describe the typically parabolic nature of TC tracks. Most in the N hemisphere go WEST, then recurve to the EAST. The implication is that the Wward track is along a curve, followed by an Eward track back to where the storm came from [along another curve, if u want to think of it that way].

Isnt that what I said?

Thats a question.
Not a statement.
Lord knows what I said.

What did I say...
A curve is a curve.
In Met language a continued curve is a recurve heading back where it came from.
Outside of Met term recurve means a loop.

Dagnabit!
I knew I shouldnt have raised the issue.
I am only serving to confuse myself. Snicker snicker...
348 hours, the only difference from last nights 00z run is this continues inland instead of going into the gulf.
3180. ncstorm
not a good scenario..widespread tornados inland if that pan out..
Circulation is getting tighter and stronger.

3182. yoboi
Quoting ENSO2012:


It beats nothing, SMART-ASS! I'll take it. A toast to this trend continuing into the future.


i don't think ya suppose to cuss on here...
3183. spathy
Quoting ncstorm:


and look towards africa


Ok I am looking.
But I dont think I can see Russia from here!

I mean Africa!
Quoting ENSO2012:


It beats nothing, SMART-ASS! I'll take it. A toast to this trend continuing into the future.


What the heck is wrong with you?
Regardless of where this first system ends up, I keep seeing the high keeping it well below 20N until it gets to the islands... that means potential landfall problems at some point along the way.

On the Twave currently poised just E of the Lesser Antilles... if the GFS is sending that into that "sweet spot" between the Bahamas, Cuba and S FL, we could get a surprise storm. That area has been very productive so far this year.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Nice wave/low near Cape Verde.
It does look pretty good, have to wait to see what happens.
3187. ncstorm
Quoting spathy:


Ok I am looking.
But I dont think I can see Russia from here!

I mean Africa!


well duh..you have to be in Alaska to see Russia..
Gosh why isn't he gone now?.Anyway currently at a family reununion hope you all are enjoying your evening as well.
3189. spathy
Ok folks with that I will stop.

I have just been trying to smother the earlier nonsense and give a few smiles to those that care to smile.

Lets see what the season is gearing up to give us.

On your mark!
Poll time!

You miss yellow circles.

A) Yes

Quoting Hurricanes101:


What the heck is wrong with you?



am not sure but if he keeps this up


hes going too get bannd for sure


may be he had too marh beeer
Saola is getting close to typhoon status.

im hearing there is a possibly tornadic storm in S. Canada near Winnipeg... and all the models look interesting... does anyone have a bad feeling about Ernesto?? I remember some people did earlier this year
Sun is up on Damrey. System's a bit, err, likely convection wise.

3196. spathy
Quoting ncstorm:


well duh..you have to be in Alaska to see Russia..


Thanks NCS
But I promised I would stop.
So thanks is all I got :O)
.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sun is up on Damrey. System's a bit, err, likely convection wise.



29/2032 UTC 19.0N 126.0E T3.5/3.5 SAOLA -- West Pacific
29/2032 UTC 25.1N 145.3E T2.5/2.5 DAMREY -- West Pacific
Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC129-292315-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0047.120729T2240Z-120729T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 638 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE...OR NEAR ARRAN...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAKULLA SPRINGS AND SHADEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8426 3012 8435 3024 8444 3027 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 316DEG 6KT 3023 8439

$$

25-CAMP
Getting a good peek at the steering the next few weeks. Obviously there will be variables but, there will be targets other than the open ocean this year.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gosh why isn't he gone now?.Anyway currently at a family reununion hope you all are enjoying your evening as well.
Hope you enjoy your family reunion.:)
Good morning Saola
Damrey
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.9mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.8 3.0

Saola
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.6mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.6

Quoting Levi32:


I have heard the AMO theory, and it seems at first to make sense as far as the meteorological principle that warmer oceans relative to continents draws more convection to the oceans at the expense of the continents. However, it doesn't hold up in relation to the Sahel specifically when you look at how the AMO was negative during the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, opposite of the proposed relationship. In fact the correlation is better the other way around, with a negative AMO during droughts and positive AMO during wet periods. However, the Sahel has remained drier than normal well after 1995 when the AMO last turned positive, deviating from the possible relationship. Additionally, the AMO has a period of approximately 70 years, while the apparent Sahel rainfall cycle has a period of about 100 years. They don't correlate particularly well, especially recently.



Exactly, the correlation is pretty weak, and I would also agree the rainfall anomaly correlates better to the same phase of the AMO (pos AMO to pos rainfall anomaly), except recently. My best explanation for this is that the AMO is correlated higher to SSTs in the tropical north Atlantic than the tropical south Atlantic. Thus there is a higher chance of anomalously warm SSTs north of the equator in the Atlantic than south of it during the positive phase of the AMO. This draws the ITCZ/monsoon trough further north. Warmer waters also provide more moisture through greater evaporation. Still, the correlation doesn't isn't that great, and I also have to question just how well of a representation that Sahel rainfall chart actually is for precipitation across the entire Sahel region.


SST correlation to the AMO from 1950-2010
3207. spathy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Circulation is getting tighter and stronger.



Are you talking about the wave(circulation) about the hit the islands?
Yes it does look at least wetter and stronger.

Hopefully its just some good breezy rain.

With all the dry air there could be some strong downdrafts from collapsing storms though.
Especially near any Mountains it could be worse.
GFS says Ernesto is going to give FL another go, lol.




Hey guys, unlike the line of storms that went through NYC which was just a strong line of storms otherwise known as a squall line, this footage here is that of a TRUE derecho! Awesome footage out of Ohio from the the June 29th event, it puts into perspective how intense this event was.

BTW, not all named storms are worth hyping, and some unnamed storms are worth hyping.

A classic example of what happens when you combine a very cold pool aloft and ride atop very hot air along the boundary of a ridge given the right dynamics.

Saola:

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
GFS says Ernesto is going to give FL another go, lol.
Lol Ernesto 2006 part two??.Well got to go.See you "regulars" later.'Bout to go dancing with the young'ins.Hope I can keep up.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
GFS says Ernesto is going to give FL another go, lol.


They cancelled work for Ernesto that year. And it turned out to be a very nice day. Needless to say, my job now waits as long as possible before they cancel.
3216. yoboi
Quoting ENSO2012:


The irony, LOL. Perhaps some unfinished business from back in '06?


i am confused do ya want storms to hitt fla???
3218. ZStoner
Hi. First time poster, but long time reader.

I've been wondering if those two systems have any chance of a little Fujiwhara action as they head closer to the Chinese mainland?
Or perhaps their approach to the mainland itself likely cancels out any chance of it happening?

No matter what, it looks like China is in for a messy and wet few days by next weekend.

Thanks, Z.
Does that GFS run bring this storm across in a David-like track?
Quoting ZStoner:
Hi. First time poster, but long time reader.

I've been wondering if those two systems have any chance of a little Fujiwhara action as they head closer to the Chinese mainland?
Or perhaps their approach to the mainland itself likely cancels out any chance of it happening?

No matter what, it looks like China is in for a messy and wet few days by next weekend.

Thanks, Z.

I think so, yes. With Saola being such a large storm, they may begin to interact as soon as the next 72 hours.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Does that GFS run bring this storm across in a David-like track?


no furhter inland
Quoting ZStoner:
Hi. First time poster, but long time reader.

I've been wondering if those two systems have any chance of a little Fujiwhara action as they head closer to the Chinese mainland?
Or perhaps their approach to the mainland itself likely cancels out any chance of it happening?

No matter what, it looks like China is in for a messy and wet few days by next weekend.

Thanks, Z.
We were thinking about that earlier today. It's certainly possible, though I'm not quite sure how it would work. Or if there's enough time.
HWRF starting to get consistent in developing the Central Atlantic wave:







Also strenghtens Saola:


Quoting Hurricanes101:


no furhter inland
LOL, just realized how unclear that was... I was looking at the track over Hispaniola and the BAhamas... looking less like Ernesto '06 and more like David'79...
3225. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Exactly, the correlation is pretty weak, and I would also agree the rainfall anomaly correlates better to the same phase of the AMO (pos AMO to pos rainfall anomaly), except recently. My best explanation for this is that the AMO is correlated higher to SSTs in the tropical north Atlantic than the tropical south Atlantic. Thus there is a higher chance of anomalously warm SSTs north of the equator in the Atlantic than south of it during the positive phase of the AMO. This draws the ITCZ/monsoon trough further north. Warmer waters also provide more moisture through greater evaporation. Still, the correlation doesn't isn't that great, and I also have to question just how well of a representation that Sahel rainfall chart actually is for precipitation across the entire Sahel region.


SST correlation to the AMO from 1950-2010


That was my thought as well. Geography plays a big role in how SSTs affect surrounding continents. A positive AMO likely enhances rainfall in certain parts of Africa.

As for questioning the Sahel data, it's from the NCDC GHCN dataset, which is as good as it gets. Yes the data was likely sparse back in the day, and still isn't great, but it was pretty clear to the world that there was a bad multidecadal drought going on in Africa during the 1970s-1980s, and that it was wetter beforehand for a long period of time. That behavior implies some sort of a cycle, so I don't think the data quality is a big issue here.
2006 Ernesto Was No Joke

Hurricane Ernesto was the costliest tropical cyclone of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.

3227. yoboi
taz is the upper west coast going to be cooler than norm next week??
Quoting yoboi:
taz is the upper west coast going to be cooler than norm next week??




nop
3229. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HWRF starting to get consistent in developing the Central Atlantic wave:







Also strenghtens Saola:




Since when does the HWRF run the Pacific/Atlantic domain for no reason? There are no invests in either basin.
3231. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




nop



oh ok looked like a trough from ak wanted to get moving....
What's the time line for the second tropical wave (or what comes out of it) reaching the Lesser Antilles?

Is there a possibility that I might have to take out my hurricane shutters?
3233. ncstorm
updated HPC map
3234. Patrap
WP102012 - Tropical Storm SAOLA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
2006 Ernesto Was No Joke

Hurricane Ernesto was the costliest tropical cyclone of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.

But that was because just bout everything else went out to sea...
Quoting Levi32:


Since when does the HWRF run the Pacific/Atlantic domain for no reason? There are no invests in either basin.

Levi i know the system isnt fully developed yet but can i get your brief thoughts on it? do you support a CMC track or a GFS track and is the shear the reason why the GFS keeps killing it in the carribean every run?
3238. VR46L
Quoting islandgirls:
What's the time line for the second tropical wave (or what comes out of it) reaching the Lesser Antilles?

Is there a possibility that I might have to take out my hurricane shutters?


2 of the GFS runs have shown a storm there as has one run of the CMC .will see if the Euro shows anything in the next day or two .. If more models show it you may want to get them out
3239. yoboi
Quoting islandgirls:
What's the time line for the second tropical wave (or what comes out of it) reaching the Lesser Antilles?

Is there a possibility that I might have to take out my hurricane shutters?


where are ya located at??
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HWRF starting to get consistent in developing the Central Atlantic wave:







Also strenghtens Saola:




Wow, did not know they ran the HWRF on pouches. If you don't mind me asking, where did you get than run?
Quoting Levi32:


Since when does the HWRF run the Pacific/Atlantic domain for no reason? There are no invests in eitehr basin. Did you plot that yourself in GrADS or is that image from a website?


HWRF has run basin wide for genesis in the Atlantic for about 2-3 years now. Just recently found out they were running storm specific in the Western Pacific.

Link


The presentations in the Hurricane Research Division Blog have lots of good info, which includes links :)
3242. JLPR2
It's like someone flipped a switch, SAL is weak and less across the Atl.



Also, good evening everyone!
Quoting yoboi:


i am confused do ya want storms to hitt fla???
yes he wants a catastrophic event for miami to which it will lead to one's own dimise
Quoting Huracaneer:


Wow, did not know they ran the HWRF on pouches. If you don't mind me asking, where did you get than run?


It is not pouch specific, but basin wide for genesis.
The latest GFS scenerio would not be good for Haiti-a deluge.

But, I thought we said that until a storm is established its like " finding a needle

in  the haystack" predicting its course.
Quoting yoboi:


where are ya located at??


Antigua
Vocal climate change skeptic Richard Muller (UC Berkley) has had a change of heart ... and says in NY Times op-ed that global warming is due almost entirely to human factors.

LA Times Story

New York Times Op Ed

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."
3248. yoboi
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes he wants a catastrophic event for miami to which it will lead to one's own dimise



wow why would anyone want that too happen?? that's messed up..
3250. yoboi
Quoting islandgirls:


Antigua



i have seen pics from there, a very nice place....
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It is not pouch specific, but basin wide for genesis.


Thanks, I see Levi asked the same question and you answered in 3241. You do find some great stuff.
Quoting JLPR2:
It's like someone flipped a switch, SAL is weak and less across the Atl.



Also, good evening everyone!
things are coming together hold on we could be in for a wicked ride
3253. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HWRF has run basin wide for genesis in the Atlantic for about 2-3 years now. Just recently found out they were running storm specific in the Western Pacific.

Link


The presentations in the Hurricane Research Division Blog have lots of good info, which includes links :)


Very cool. I didn't know they gave the model a full-time job. Thanks for the link.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


They cancelled work for Ernesto that year. And it turned out to be a very nice day. Needless to say, my job now waits as long as possible before they cancel.


Yeah, they also dumped Lake O which ruined the marine ecosystem up in Indian River for some time. I remember Dr. Masters blog talking about that Ernesto could get to CAT 4 strength pretty quickly once it emerged into the Straits. Good thing Ernesto had a fancy for the Cuban Coastline and never could work out that second circulation.
Levi32, nrtiwlnvragn and Keeper are all here today, THAT is a sure indication that the basin is heating up!


TXPQ25 KNES 292117
TCSWNP

A. 10W (SAOLA)

B. 29/2032Z

C. 19.0N

D. 126.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION GOING THROUGH A TRANSITION AND DT=3.5
BASED ON 7/10 MOSTLY WHITE BANDING. MET=3.5 AND PAT=3.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1822Z 18.9N 125.6E AMSU


...SWANSON
oh well monday is other day


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS



TXPQ26 KNES 292127
TCSWNP

A. 11W (DAMREY)

B. 29/2032Z

C. 25.1N

D. 145.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH 5/10 BANDING YIELDS A
DT=2.5. MET=2.0 BUT PAT ALSO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1842Z 25.4N 145.6E SSMI


...SWANSON
3260. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
things are coming together hold on we could be in for a wicked ride


There's only one thing that can slow the Atl down...

Quoting Jedkins01:




Hey guys, unlike the line of storms that went through NYC which was just a strong line of storms otherwise known as a squall line, this footage here is that of a TRUE derecho! Awesome footage out of Ohio from the the June 29th event, it puts into perspective how intense this event was.

BTW, not all named storms are worth hyping, and some unnamed storms are worth hyping.

A classic example of what happens when you combine a very cold pool aloft and ride atop very hot air along the boundary of a ridge given the right dynamics.



just because june 29 was almost beyond derecho doesn't make the recent storms not a derecho
Quoting JLPR2:


There's only one thing that can slow the Atl down...





i think thats a little old there
Quoting Levi32:


That was my thought as well. Geography plays a big role in how SSTs affect surrounding continents. A positive AMO likely enhances rainfall in certain parts of Africa.

As for questioning the Sahel data, it's from the NCDC GHCN dataset, which is as good as it gets. Yes the data was likely sparse back in the day, and still isn't great, but it was pretty clear to the world that there was a bad multidecadal drought going on in Africa during the 1970s-1980s, and that it was wetter beforehand for a long period of time. That behavior implies some sort of a cycle, so I don't think the data quality is a big issue here.
Yeah best we got. Also, I don't feel like posting it but ESRL PSD reanalysis further shows a positive AMO correlates to enhanced precipitation and negative OLR anomalies associated with enhanced convection over the Sahel.
Recorded Presentations from this years 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology are now online, lots of good info for the slow times that have recently been occurring.
Quoting yoboi:



i have seen pics from there, a very nice place....


Can't agree with you more
3266. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




i think thats a little old there


Slightly, July 15-21, can't seem to find last week's.
Quoting islandgirls:


Antigua
Oh Dear...

Did u guys get a lot of rain from Irene last year? I know the coc/eye passed to ur north...

3270. JLPR2
Quoting ENSO2012:


Keep on holding onto your disillusions. Puerto Rico si que no se escapara de una este ano. Bring on August, September, and October.


I'm confident that wont be the case, Irene was enough to last me at least two years. xD
3271. ncstorm
the Women Americans just won silver for Sycronized Diving!!
Quoting ncstorm:
the Women Americans just won silver for Sycronized Diving!!


correction, it just got played on NBC.



and an NBC official's view of it:

1 @jonathanwald the medal for most Olympic whining goes to everyone complaining about what happens every 4 yrs, tape delay @brianstelter

%u2014 Vivian Schiller (@VivianSchiller) July 29, 2012
in EL nino years we may not marh of any thing come SEP OCT and NOV look at 2006 and 2009 and you see what i mean even no that idea was a nov storm but you wont be seeing that all the time in EL nino years
3276. TXCWC
Quoting unknowncomic:
The latest GFS scenerio would not be good for Haiti-a deluge.

But, I thought we said that until a storm is established its like " finding a needle

in  the haystack" predicting its course.


Ya that is good advice. All we know with increasing confidence right now is a system will probally develop within the next few days...I WOULD NOT EVEN BEGIN TO PREDICT A TRACK UNTIL A SYSTEM HAS ACTUALLY FORMED. One need only look at the wide difference between 12Z and 18Z runs of the GFS to see that it could be ANYWHERE once past the Antilles.


CATL Low is holding together pretty well.

Looks like NoGAps dropped it but CMC is developing toward the 'sweet spot' while GFS keeps it further south into the Caribbean.
Link CMC Loop
Link GFS Loop
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


correction, it just got played on NBC.

#NBCfail


why is it a fail?

Its not a secret due to the near 6 hour time difference between the US and London that most events are not actually live
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HWRF has run basin wide for genesis in the Atlantic for about 2-3 years now. Just recently found out they were running storm specific in the Western Pacific.

Link


The presentations in the Hurricane Research Division Blog have lots of good info, which includes links :)
Very cool, thanks for the link nrt, you always got interesting ones.
Quoting JLPR2:


There's only one thing that can slow the Atl down...

what? the el nino that for some reason cant stregthen beyond 0.5C :)
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm confident that wont be the case, Irene was enough to last me at least two years. xD
Unfortunately I am not holding out hope for our area. The way that high seems to be sitting, and sitting, and SITting, anything that misses you guys is still pretty likely to give us a hit, a brush, or at the least a scare. [And another Georges or David is not what the N Caribbean needs.] I agree with your earlier post; best situation for us is early onset of el nino conditions. However, I don't expect to see serious effects before end of Sept....

in 2006 the last name storm was in SEP and EL nino shut down the rest of the season


Quoting islandgirls:


Can't agree with you more
The one place in the E Car that reminds me of home, at least geographically...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
things are coming together hold on we could be in for a wicked ride
For some reason, I agree. Too many things seem to be coming together at the same time.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


why is it a fail?

Its not a secret due to the near 6 hour time difference between the US and London that most events are not actually live


they could play it this afternoon, not evening...
there will be a WR shown now that most people know already happened.
3286. centex
I think we are due a new tropical tidbit with area of interest developing in next 48 hours.
JLPR2, you agree that the lid is about to go away very soon? I am somewhat worried about the strong high pressure in terms of the tracks that could send to the NE Caribbean some threats.
3288. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Unfortunately I am not holding out hope for our area. The way that high seems to be sitting, and sitting, and SITting, anything that misses you guys is still pretty likely to give us a hit, a brush, or at the least a scare. [And another Georges or David is not what the N Caribbean needs.] I agree with your earlier post; best situation for us is early onset of el nino conditions. However, I don't expect to see serious effects before end of Sept....



You are right there, until El Niño matures we are sitting ducks. But I'll keep my positive attitude. :D

I do hope no Andrew like hurricane forms, Andrew demonstrated that an el Niño year can also be a devastating one.
3289. etxwx
Downpours continue to plague China
07-29-2012 21:26 BJT China has relocated some 40,000 residents in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, as the year's first flood peak hit the middle reaches of the Yellow River.

The flood crest, the highest in two decades, passed the two provinces in north and northwest China on Saturday.

Triggered by days of torrential rains, water levels rose quickly on the Yellow River's middle reaches. Flood waters have inundated low-lying lands as well as some water control and diversion projects, but caused no major economic losses or casualties. All residents threatened by flooding have been relocated and the two affected provinces have dispatched personnel to check river dykes and increase flood-control measures.

The China Central Meteorological Center will continue its rainstorm alerts for 10 provinces and regions in the next two days.


Downpours continue to plague Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces.

3290. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JLPR2, you agree that the lid is about to go away very soon? I am somewhat worried about the strong high pressure in terms of the tracks that could send to the NE Caribbean some threats.


Seems like it, as Keeper said, everything is falling into place and with the MJO moving into our area soon, something is bound to happen.
The 18z GFS was surprisingly similar in track to Hurricane Ernesto in 2006, interesting as this would also be named Ernesto.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


they could play it this afternoon...
there will be a WR shown now that most people know already happened.


Most wouldnt know if people would go onto public blogs and blurt it out

has happened to me several times

plus the reason its all tape delayed is so they can show everything

the stuff that happens in the early morning in England would be on at 1am if it were shown live in the US and most people would not watch it because they are sleeping. That is why everything is pushed back, it actually makes sense what they are doing...if they showed everything live, then we would miss out on some things
3293. ncstorm
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


correction, it just got played on NBC.



and an NBC official's view of it:

1 @jonathanwald the medal for most Olympic whining goes to everyone complaining about what happens every 4 yrs, tape delay @brianstelter

%u2014 Vivian Schiller (@VivianSchiller) July 29, 2012


Most Americans are watching it on TV..I rather see it that way whether live or not instead of searching online..if you got a better way of broadcasting it live, please let NBC know..
"surface low" the models appear to be grabbing on to isn't getting much mention at the 8 p.m. Discussion....ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU AT 12N16W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATERS THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 9N32W TO 8N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 31W-41W.

Off to check out the latest dramas of Olympic proportion.
Lots of interesting discussion/graphics today.
Thanks to you all.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012


TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N56W TO
9N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.
Quoting Tazmanian:
in EL nino years we may not marh of any thing come SEP OCT and NOV look at 2006 and 2009 and you see what i mean even no that idea was a nov storm but you wont be seeing that all the time in EL nino years



Tired of hearing your el nino theories, poof
Quoting etxwx:
Downpours continue to plague China
07-29-2012 21:26 BJT China has relocated some 40,000 residents in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, as the year's first flood peak hit the middle reaches of the Yellow River.

The flood crest, the highest in two decades, passed the two provinces in north and northwest China on Saturday.

Triggered by days of torrential rains, water levels rose quickly on the Yellow River's middle reaches. Flood waters have inundated low-lying lands as well as some water control and diversion projects, but caused no major economic losses or casualties. All residents threatened by flooding have been relocated and the two affected provinces have dispatched personnel to check river dykes and increase flood-control measures.

The China Central Meteorological Center will continue its rainstorm alerts for 10 provinces and regions in the next two days.


Downpours continue to plague Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces.

You know, I've understood for many years that flooding, especially riverine flooding, has been a feature of the Chinese disaster-related story. I'm just now making a link to TC activity and that flooding... think about the fact that Vicente carried tropical moisture well inland up the river system that enters the Pacific at the Pearl River estuary... then multiply the effect of two or three different TCs moving inland over some of the other large rivers... and didn't I read last week that the flooding in the Beijing area was due indirectly to Vicente?

Things that make u go "hmmm"....
3300. JLPR2
Quoting ENSO2012:


Keep on holding onto your disillusions. Puerto Rico si que no se escapara de una este ano. Bring on August, September, and October.


You know, reading it a second time you have a valid point there, 14years without a hurricane for an island in the middle of the tropics is awesome luck, sooner or later a hurricane will visit.
Quoting mcluvincane:



Tired of hearing your el nino theories, poof




poof right back
Quoting mcluvincane:



Tired of hearing your el nino theories, poof


because El Nino occurring and decreasing the number of storms this season makes you sad?

Its no secret that El Nino is coming, its just delayed; when it does occur is going to be a huge factor as to what kind of impact it has on the 2012 hurricane season. Tazs' theories on El Nino are not unfounded
3304. ncstorm
look at the 18z GFS ensemble spread

216 hour


240 hour


288 Hour
Why do I always get post 50, 99, etc???

LOL
Interaction between both systems....

Quoting Hurricanes101:


because El Nino occurring and decreasing the number of storms this season makes you sad?

Its no secret that El Nino is coming, its just delayed; when it does occur is going to be a huge factor as to what kind of impact it has on the 2012 hurricane season. Tazs' theories on El Nino are not unfounded


Dont think anyone was talking to you, poof
Quoting mcluvincane:


Dont think anyone was talking to you, poof


LMAO, so childish, also Taz was not talking to you when he made his original statement. I'm moving on
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oh Dear...

Did u guys get a lot of rain from Irene last year? I know the coc/eye passed to ur north...



Oh yes we did. That "Oh Dear" exclamation makes it sound as if we're in the Danger Zone. Don't mind though I enjoy this time of year. All I do is prepare for what is to be and check the information gleaned from this blog and give it to those who depend on me for updates on the weather. I am kinda like their source of information during the hurricane season. I tell them where I get my information and always have high praise for persons on this blog
3311. centex
What is more intersting is 48-72 hour forecast not the 200+ stuff.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting ENSO2012:


Did you hear him? We'll not see ''MARCH'' come September, October, and November!

The guy doesn't even know where he's standing.

Just ignore him and move-in. Logically, his El Nino theories are HUGELY unfounded and unsupported.



you neeed too look back at the 2009 and 2006 hurricane season and look where they ended


2006 ended in SEP

why 2009 hurricane season endded in NOV even no we did not see a hole lot in SEP or OCT that year still got one more name storm on nov



am thinking if things play out this right with a weak or MOD EL Nino this season may likey end in SEP this like it did in 2006 or it we may not see marh in SEP or OCT like in 2009 and we may get one more storm in NOV


so you nevere no when it comes too EL nino not evere EL Nino will be the same and not evere season will be the same
18z GFS ensemble
Quoting ENSO2012:


Did you hear him? We'll not see ''MARCH'' come September, October, and November!

The guy doesn't even know where he's standing.

Just ignore him and move-in. Logically, his El Nino theories are HUGELY unfounded and unsupported.


you are asking mc to move in with you? Thought you were engaged.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JLPR2, you agree that the lid is about to go away very soon? I am somewhat worried about the strong high pressure in terms of the tracks that could send to the NE Caribbean some threats.


The Azores Bermuda high will be in command... will dictate the path that these CV systems will take....
Quoting ncstorm:
look at the 18z GFS ensemble spread

216 hour


240 hour


288 Hour

Despite the fact that the actual GFS model takes it into the Caribbean, the ensemble mean shows it headed towards the NE Caribbean islands and eventually the SE Coast.
3318. centex
From stornw tonight - Sunday, July 29, 2012…7:45 P.M. EDT: I have to go in early to have some blood drawn…routine check up. I’ll be performing analysis upon my return. I am interested in the wave near 10.0N;30.0W. This wave, should it fight off dry air, may have the best chance thus far this season at development
On a more serious note...


WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N71W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N56W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N66W IS SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N64W TO 23N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE AXIS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 65W-68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OVER THE BASIN.

What are the chances we get another rainy weekend on the basis of interaction between that Twave coming int the Car basin and that ULL? I'm thinking similar to what we saw last weekend.

Also I am noticing this is the weakest the high / ridge has been for weeks... down to 1024 over the Azores as well... another sign of the times [they are a-changing]?
3320. hydrus
Quoting centex:
From stornw tonight - Sunday, July 29, 2012…7:45 P.M. EDT: I have to go in early to have some blood drawn…routine check up. I’ll be performing analysis upon my return. I am interested in the wave near 10.0N;30.0W. This wave, should it fight off dry air, may have the best chance thus far this season at development
Our first real Cape Verde storm is in the works.
3321. 7544
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012


TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N56W TO
9N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.


hi is this for the gfs fl storm or is the one gfs is showing for fl the 1009 low behind it tia
Quoting Levi32:


That was my thought as well. Geography plays a big role in how SSTs affect surrounding continents. A positive AMO likely enhances rainfall in certain parts of Africa.

As for questioning the Sahel data, it's from the NCDC GHCN dataset, which is as good as it gets. Yes the data was likely sparse back in the day, and still isn't great, but it was pretty clear to the world that there was a bad multidecadal drought going on in Africa during the 1970s-1980s, and that it was wetter beforehand for a long period of time. That behavior implies some sort of a cycle, so I don't think the data quality is a big issue here.


The drought in Africa was caused by aerosol pollution coming from the United states before the anti-acid rain campaigns of the mid '80s. It's come to be understood that the aerosols had a cooling effect on the ocean, thus the ITCZ was weaker in the Northern Hemisphere & didn't travel as north as it does now. It's well documented. Here's not the best of sources, gives the basics, but look around there is papers & such on this subject.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Dont think anyone was talking to you, poof
useriously want a big season with el nino occuring it tere right u know so u cant poof ppl for it lol
Good Evening Everybody from America's Left Coast.
Is there some sort of consensus among the models on the Atlantic waves?Im sorry I haven't looked at the models,been watching recorded Olympics coverage from my DVR.
Is it poofing day?.....lol
Rodney King RIP "Can't we all get along?"
3329. luigi18
Quoting JLPR2:


You know, reading it a second time you have a valid point there, 14years without a hurricane for an island in the middle of the tropics is awesome luck, sooner or later a hurricane will visit.



I dont see a cane coming for now
.
.
3332. ncstorm
Here in NH County, we had a huge migration of black birds with the approaching storm..the clouds were so low that you felt you could reach them by touching them
3333. luigi18
Quoting JLPR2:


You know, reading it a second time you have a valid point there, 14years without a hurricane for an island in the middle of the tropics is awesome luck, sooner or later a hurricane will visit.


año no Ano!