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Severe Cyclone Gonu Prepares to Strike the Gulf of Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:34 AM GMT on June 05, 2007

An unusual event is happening over the next 48 hours, as the first tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds, and major hurricane-force winds at that, is approaching the Gulf of Oman, to strike the eastern coast of Oman, curve northward, and make landfall on the coast of Iran. In the tropical cyclone best tracks and the modern era of weather satellites, there is no record of such an occurrence.

Today, Steve Gregory and I will be guest-hosting the blog, while Jeff is on vacation, to provide current information on Severe Cyclone Gonu. I'll provide some background on the areas that are currently forecast to be in the path of this dangerous cyclone, followed by Steve's Monday evening surge forecast and assessment based on the most recent JTWC track and intensity forecast, which currently calls for sustained winds of 115 kt when first passing near the coastline of Oman.

Updates during the day will be posted on my blog, The View From the Surface.

As I write this it is late in the evening in the central US, but the day has already begun in the Middle East. Distant cirrus from Gonu have already started to cloud the Gulf of Oman, and over the course of the day there, conditions will deteriorate along the eastern coast of Oman as the tropical cyclone approaches. Overnight, the core of Gonu will approach the tip of Oman, with the eye passing offshore just before dawn, and the bulk of the surge occuring along the eastern coast some time shortly before that. By midday the next day the worst of the storm will have passed the southernmost portion of the coast, and the core of the storm will be directly east of Muscat, the capital of Oman, home to over half a million people. Right now the forecast has the storm passing just offshore, but if the track shifts further east, the most damaging winds of the cyclone will remain over water. This will lessen the damage to Oman, but will likely result in a higher intensity when making landfall in Iran.

--Margie Kieper

* * * * * * *

Those who live along the Gulf of Mexico are well aware of what it means for a major hurricane to make landfall. Even if they've never experienced it themselves, they have relatives or members of their community who have experienced it. And in many places they can see the damage that remains.

Imagine that you live directly on the Gulf, but in a place where it hardly ever rains, and where a hurricane has never hit, for at least a generation -- for more than sixty years. Your community and many like yours are situated not only directly on the water, but near or in large dry riverbeds on the coastal plain, which is a narrow strip of sandy shoreline that is the dropoff for the three-thousand-foot mountain range behind it. Even many of the roads up into the mountains are in these dry riverbeds, which course through deep canyons as they rise into the heights. You don't have any idea what it might mean to experience winds of over 100 miles per hour, whipping up sand, and torrential rain against these mountains that can turn the riverbeds into conduits for dangerous flash floods. And you don't have any idea what storm surge is, and can't conceive of wind-driven high waves that could break against the shoreline and leave nothing behind.

This is the eastern coast of Oman, where communities line the shoreline which is shortly going to be experiencing a major hurricane. We can only hope that the danger is understood and that all of these communities have evacuated to higher ground and a safer location.

Below are two images of the city of Sur, showing how the community is built right along the water's edge:

Sur


closeup of Sur


The first image below shows one of the large winding dry riverbeds, and the second close-up shows a village built right where this riverbed empties into the gulf.

dry riverbed


community built in riverbed


These images show an industrial facility on the shoreline right at the tip of southeastern Oman, with an airstrip and a small community -- all of which could be gone in twenty-four hours, from surge, if the storm passes close to this area as currently forecast.

southeastern tip of Oman


closeup of southeastern tip of Oman


* * * * * * *

Steve Gregory's Monday Evening Forecast for Gonu

Severe Cyclone GONU in the Arabian Sea is currently heading NW at 14KTS (Faster than the JTWC Forecast) and is located 135NM SE of the eastern most 'tip' of Oman, and 180NM SE of Muscat. The storm is now a very strong CAT 4 - with an estimated pressure of 904mb, and wind gusts to 155Kts.

Based on imagery over the last 6 hours - the storm is under-going an Eyewall Replacement cycle, and so the first early morning VIS image (right) shows the eye is now covered with cirrus. As a new eyewall is developing (based on Micro-wave imagery) and will complete this cycle right about the time it gets to the Oman Gulf.

The track the storm takes as it nears the Oman coast is extremely critical in terms of intensity as it is entering the Gulf - and how severe the damage will be. There ocean heat content of the water on the SE FACING side of Oman is lower - and if the storm travels close to that location (as shown on the NAVY chart) the storm will likely weaken further during the day to a low end CAT 3, and then hit the Iran coast as a strong CAT 1 on Wednesday.

If the storm tracks 50-100NM NORTH of the coast as it enters the Gulf of Oman - though the water is shallower there, the SST's are very high (32degC) and with the storm further away from land, and over very warm water - it is likely to hold onto CAT 3 intensity for an additional 4-6 hours as it moves NW.

There is a large oil facility and large airport located right at the eastern 'tip' of Oman - and I counted at least 6 major 'ports' on Satellite imagery along the Oman coast up to 100 miles WNW of Muscat.

On the opposite side of the Gulf is the Iranian coast - with numerous 'cove inlets' each with loading docks and port facilities. At least 9 facilities I could count from the Iran/Pakistan border west to the area I show landfall (Magenta Arrow on the diagram below). Offshore platforms were also seen in a few locations.

Steve Gregory Gonu surge forecast


The Storm surge shown (10-15 ft) will almost certainly hit the Iran coast - even if the storm weakens to a strong CAT 2 late Tuesday (NY time). The Eastern tip of Oman will likely also experience 10-15 foot surge due to the close proximity of the storm track. Further up the Gulf, before reaching the Straits of Hormuz - storm surge heights of 1-4 feet are expected on the Oman side, and 4-possibly 6 feet on the Iranian side near the entrance to the Straits. Significant wave heights will be 20-30 feet, dropping to 15 feet near the Straits.

This is an unprecedented event. NO CYCLONE has ever entered the Gulf of Oman. And there are no custom 'storm surge' models available for that area. This forecast is based on my experience and subjective analysis of the seabed slope and storm surge interaction with the sea floor. Considering the region has never experienced a hurricane, let alone a strong one it is highly unlikely the loading facilities or platforms were constructed to withstand the forces - both wave action and wind force - that they will experience. Significant, damage will occur. How much long term damage, and the volumes associated with it - can not be determined at this time.

--Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. RL3AO
I hope the death toll isnt too bad in Oman and Muscat. But I fear it will get to 1000...at least.
Posted By: Fl30258713 at 9:17 PM GMT on June 05, 2007.
wave hieght 32 ft, sound like a good place not to be. Hope our Navy folks are out of the way.


...I second that "wavemotion!"
June 5: Stronger than normal waves come ashore at Muscat, Oman, as Cyclone Gonu approached the Arab nation.

7..pic from Fox news yesterday evening Oman.
504. RL3AO
Look at those buildings right on the coast...oh man.
I almost hate to throw this 2 cents in but feel I have to. A couple of hours ago Joe Bastardi from Accuweather said that Gonu could take a left turn and head straight for Bandar Abbas in Iran and everyone poo pood him. Looks like he hit it on the head with this last forecast track.
Muscat,Oman wunderground page..Link
Doda!

:)
508. RL3AO
Where those people are will be a 10 foot swimming pool here in a few hours.
509. FLBoy
Yep Dodabear.....that was not what anyone wanted to see. that's all bad!
RL3AO,

Yeah, we would never build that close to the shore. Nope, we build 'em right on the beach even where we know we regularly get hurricanes.
511. RL3AO
I know we build on the shore, but we also have easier times evacuating.
wunderground Muscat,Oman Pics..Link
Muscat is evacuated.Its a modern city folks.We had a blogger expatmummy on earlier.Hoping to here from them again soon.
Convection to the south of gonu and land interaction pulled the storm on a southern wobble. I'd say winds of 50-60kts are basing the shore and 3-10 inches of rain. if there was a 10 ft surge then those guys in patrap's picture are doing the back stroke right about now.
I doubt the surge is doing that there.They still transmitting live feeds and printing the paper Im hearing.The worst surge propogated NE..Not NW..
Hopefully..they will make out better than we think.A disaster may be averted..50 knts in 24 hours is a big dropoff in momentumn.But that Cat 5 surge has to go somewhere..
When Katrina "calmed" to a cat 3 did't she still have the surge of a cat 5. Could the same happen with gonu?
Seems like surge is a difficult thing to predict. I have seldom seen them get it right. They were (yesterday) calling for a 10 meter (30 ft) surge from this storm. I am certainly glad they backed down from that.
Link

The loop is pretty neat. Watch the Bright Clouds shoot west over central america. Its wierd the way the clouds moved.

And whats this area in the central atlantic? Anything to be watched?
Gonu 12 hours

NA
Gonu is smaller than that storm in 05..in size..And no where near as powerful as Katrina when it made landfall.Gonu has undergone..and continues on a rapid weakening trend..not to recover .
Ya Oman isn't made up of a bunch of wandering nomads, they are well developed, they probably have a much better evacuation system then New Orleans ever had, probably have a much lower poverty rate there as well from all the oil.
Muscat, ...Hyatt Hotel. Oman Link
of course part of Katrina'a amazing surge was the ol' right hook move she took. Could the straits of Hormos prove as fatal when the surge interacts with land. I suppose gonu will be to weak by then.
Ya but didn't rain from Barry help out old Okee? Or did it miss the brunt of the rain? I mean of couse they would still need a lot more, but the situation must be getting better, the drought index looks great for soth Florida.

Ya there is a drought, but I think the real issue is that there are just too many residents in Florida, Lake Okee is the drinking water source, and it never got to such low levels during past droughts of similar intensities, so it must be that. Also a lot of Floridas wetlands have been removed which help more intense drying when rainfall is lacking. But ya know, its is sad, but you can't tell people they can't move to Florida, so I guess thats how it goes.
Lake O water level. Link
It was at 9.01 inches after Barry but its going back down.
ya see its sad how quick it goes back down, there are factors these days more then the drought, its like they need a lot more rain to maintain it then in past history.
Link



WOW LOOK AT THAT THUNDER_STOrM
I have never seen that one color.
That storm is over north western V.A right now.
532. RL3AO
Yeah. 75 dbz.
Cakalaky- It's not that Severe. It's got no TVS. 2 Days ago you should have been on here when we were showing storms in Texas with 80dbz and 5 inch hail, plus TV Signatures all over the place. It was crazy.
A white dot.
Well yea Texas, not V.A.
Cakalaky- There was white portions on the Radar in texas on Monday. Crazy. I'm telling you.
Well V.A had a white portion. REmeMber V.A is not Texas.
Ya I prety much wish I was over there experiencing those thunderstorms when they occurred lol
I could see texas get white portions every other day, not V.A.
North- Lol. Chill man, not a competition. I shouldn't have downplayed those storms to begin with. That was my mistake, but let's not argue over that. Your storms are severe too. I'm still reeling over the Grapefruit-sized hail I saw on monday, that's all. Lol.

On another note, who's up for a Tropical Trivia Question? I've got a picture of the atlantic from some point in time and I want you to tell me the names of the two Systems you see. Here's the picture:
..
Name the two Systems you see in that picture. Trivia Time.
I covered up the date on the bottom to make it even more difficult.
You can attempt to answer the Trivia Question any time now.. Lol.
What are the names of the two systems in the picture?
Ooooooh.! Thats a tough one Alex..Hmmm? 1
Got to go. ill be back if something tropical starts to awake.GOD BLESS FLORIDA. Cat 5 COUGHF...
Gordon and Helene???
Oh yah JP!!
Hi Guys

i am currently in Dubai,UAE wht can we expect here weather wise within the next 48 hours.

Cheers
551. MZT
Looks like recent imagery, so I'd suppose it's within the last 5 years.
that tropical wave approching the islands,does that have a chance to deveople?some dry air but low shear 10-15 kts
JP- Yep, Sorry many i was busy, i couldn't respond. You got it. Gordon and Helene. September 17, 2006 is when that image was made. Great Job man. Lol, Wish i had a prize to give..
554. FLBoy
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 963.6mb/ 79.6kt
Hi all. is the community chat down? i cant get it to load. and does anyone have a link to TSR.. everytime i go there i cant get page to load, even though I have adobe?
If i'm bothering anyone with my link to my website please just let me know(In a nice way, if possible, lol.), I don't mean to offend anyone.
Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS) Link
Meteosat 7 Water Vapor (Meteosat 7; CIMSS) Link
It still appears to be weakening some. Where its eye is right now, the SST's are about 65F.. There's a cold spot close to the coast. After it passes that, the SST's warm up quickly though. It still looks like an impressive Tropical Cyclone though.

Nice Links, Patrap!!
Heres a good look at Gonu in WV Link
Rainy Season esta aqui !!! Link
Posted By: mda91 at 6:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2007. (hide)
i competely agree with michael....i wish that storm kept its strenth and destoyed everything over there.....Those damn people are a bunch of pieces of shit...they dont care aBOUT us so why should i even think about caring about them.... i hope there is mass destruction over there


This is SORT of weather related. As one who has had the privilege of working cleaning up after Wilma and Katrina most people here are very appreciative. About 10% are just plain rude and demanding and about 3% you would just like to wring their necks. I actually thought about sending one lady a photo of my house back home and telling her look snooty one, my house is nicer than yours, now who is poor trash?? But then I remembered poor thing had been through a hurricane and it evidently took a huge mental toll on her. That's what I told myself.
So you see Americans can be rude and uncaring also. If you spread the idea that one group of people or geographic group is all bad then that is the same idea the terrorist have, kill them all, destroy their country. Do you consider yourself a terrorist??
57 dbz ! Link
BoyntonBeach- Cool, man. We all need the rain!
Wow Steve Gregory is back! He was the best and most awesome blogger on wunderground in 2005, and sorely missed!
has enything ever made it to tropical storm stattus around the pasific south american coast?
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 5:56 PM EDT on June 05, 2007.

Gonu 12 hours


Wpb do u have the link a close friend of mine lives in dubai?

Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 8:24 PM EDT on June 05, 2007.

Wow Steve Gregory is back! He was the best and most awesome blogger on wunderground in 2005, and sorely missed!

Unfortunately he's not coming back he was only doing a one time blog with margie.Those wilma blogs were great indeed.
Yeah I was afraid of that, but still good to hear from him.
name another 2 systems in the atlantic together
573. Inyo
It looks like Gonu is holding his own right now, really.
HurricaneFCast - Looks like the last band of showers is passing through right now.. Where are you at ?
dont we have military personel in the area of gonu
Hmmm...tough one.
When did Barry start forming?? I could back and check out the blogs but thought someones memory might be better than mine, was it like the beginning of last week or the week before?
Hi, all... once in a while poster back again, from NY.

Wow... looking at Patrap's Infrared link... did you see the way the eye of Gonu bounced north as it hit Oman at Sur? That should save Muscat from quite a lot of what wind is left. :-)

JUSTCOASTING... I'm trying to remember the time about 10 years ago or so when there were four hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time. Aw heck, I'll look them up. Found it... four hurricanes occurred at the same time on September 25, 1998... Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl.

Jo
Who said MJO suddenly changing to green, I found it on NOAA for June 20 which isn't too far away a light green in the GOM if I read it correctly?
Link
And am I doing something wrong or does NOAA's 40 day previous link to MJO go back to 2005?? Link
Wpb do u have the link a close friend of mine lives in dubai?

Link
Good catch groundman!
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 1:28 AM GMT on June 06, 2007.
Good catch groundman!


Thanks, I did something right finally, found a mistake, LOL.
The US Military has lotsa assests in Oman.All out of Harms way.They a BIG ally.



Masirah Island includes one of four air bases which the Omani government allows the U.S. military to use for refueling, logistics and storage, though little has been revealed publicly about U.S.-Oman military ties.

The Masirah base hosted U.S. B-1B bombers, C-130 transports and U.S. Special Forces AC-130 gunships during the war in Afghanistan and the United States has continued to have basing rights on the island.

U.S. forces are preparing for Gonu "just like anyone would prepare for such a cyclone," said Lt. Denise Garcia, a spokeswoman for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, which is based in Bahrain. She declined to provide more details.

She said U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the region were also taking precautions to avoid Gonu, but there was no major overhaul of operations.

The U.S. military has offered its assistance to Oman, but so far, Omani authorities have not requested help, she said.
I don't suppose there is a Doppler out of Masqat that we can view?
Hello all
Please tell me what MJO is.Thank you.
test
589. FLBoy
Gonu is weakening more:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 968.0mb/ 74.6kt
Juderson- It is a Cat 1.

FLBoy- Can you give me a link to those updated numbers? Thanks in advance! :)
592. FLBoy
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 75 TO 90 KNOTS WITH A 55-KNOT DECREASE
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 052149Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT A CONTINUED EROSION OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE 36V
GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THIS IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL STORM POSITION AND MOTION. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORE-
CAST. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID WEAKENING TREND
DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LAND INTERACTION, AND A SHARP
DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE
ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AFTER TAU 24 SINCE STEERING WILL SHIFT
TO A LOWER LEVEL AS THE TC WEAKENS UNDER 60 KNOTS AND THIS
LOW-LEVEL STEERING COULD PRODUCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
ASH SHARIQAH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TC 02A WILL BECOME
A VERY WEAK TC WITH 30-40 KNOT INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
EXTREMELY DRY AIR. THEREFORE, REGARDLESS OF THE 48-72 HOUR
TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT TC. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS HAVE STABILIZED AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
Posted By: i12BNEi at 2:05 AM GMT on June 06, 2007.
Hello all
Please tell me what MJO is.Thank you.


OK, in totally laymans terms, totally, it's Madden Julian Oscillations, includes several atmospheric and oceanic variables which combined with a formula evidently gives certain areas of the earth at different times an enhanced capability for storm development above and beyond and seemingly superceding our normal atmospheric conditions such as fronts and lows and highs and African Waves. This link goes to the pdf summary from NOAALink
And this one goes to the NOAA page which has the forecasts and the previous MJO readings for certain time periods.Link

Probably not entirely correct but you get the gist. It's a combination or different set if you will, of weather and temperature variables which plugged into a formula gives probablilities of storm or other weather development in certain areas.

OK, hit me with your best shot, where did I screw up in the explanation?? LOL

Dr Steve Lyons is using CIMMS on TWC...I guess they have about as much as we do in regards to Gonu
Thank You, I've been wanting to ask that question all day.
very good Groundman very good
also Exellent Dr.Master very very excellent!!!!
599. FLBoy
Looks like a dissipating storm:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 972.0mb/ 69.8kt



Thanks Dewfree, I got pointed in the right direction by seminolesfan, Levi32, and WPBHurricane05, who REALLY know what they are talking about.

Also I have relatives named Madden and Juius so..............I can remember it with oscillating fan?? nevermind. LOL

gnite all, today has been an interesting day on here.
I think wednesday, here in clearwater we should get some rain but lake okee should get more. Any thoughts on all the tropical moisture in the gulf?
maybe more in central flor. on thurs. We really need it!!!
It's 8:15 here in Muscat. Plenty of rain, a good stiff breeze, but I don't see any structural damage. I'm in a reasonably sheltered part of town.

Last forecast I saw was that the storm is tracking further south now, passing close to Muscat, but considerably weakened.

Any one else in Muscat out there?

What do the experts say?
ic4, How are you??? Glad to see you weathering your 1st hurricane safely. Like I told you when they are weak or you just get brushed they are actually pretty cool!!!!
Hi again, update from Muscat.We were woke this morning at about 3am as the rain started (it is rare enough here to wake you when it does). It has rained continuously since. The wadis are a full with run off from the mountains, the waves are quite high, can see them from my roof about 200 metres away. However we haven't been evacuated, and there is no mention of it on the english speaking radio station. We have been told to sit tight and not drive around. The wind is quite strong, but not blowing things over yet. Sorry I am not more acurate, don't have anything to measure with.
Bappit: I am speaking today with Dr. Niehls Freunk, specialist in hurricane psychology at the Baylor College of Medicine. Dr. Freunk, what do you make of the contrasting attitudes taken towards Barry and Gonu in recent blogs.

Freunk: Hmmmmmmm... The difference is striking. First, Gonu:

An unusual event is happening over the next 48 hours, as the first tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds, and major hurricane-force winds at that, is approaching the Gulf of Oman, to strike the eastern coast of Oman, curve northward, and make landfall on the coast of Iran.

At the risk of being nit picky, maybe Gonu is not all that unusual. Perhaps other cyclones with major hurricane force winds have approached this area before--and also weakened. True enough, it is now close to the Gulf of Oman with hurricane force winds, but it has weakened significantly while getting there. The satellite image is not impressive, and the forecast is for continued weakening, a minimal hurricane in 12 hours or less.

Bappit: Had Gonu not been a cat 4 or 5 earlier would we be taking as much notice of it as we now are?

Freunk: Category 4 or 5 hurricanes create what I like to call a halo effect on how we regard storms. Yes, definitely. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Margie Kieper takes the NHC to task for calling Barry a tropical system.

Bappit: The nerve of those guys!

Freunk: Indeed. She says:

Putting aside the unwelcome hype and "cry wolf" potential, maybe it's best to just remember the ROFL moments associated with this chapter...

I don't remember the NHC calling Barry a dangerous storm, and maybe it actually was a tropical system if only briefly. There is no question that the system was associated with sustained winds of tropical storm speeds. Ironically, one might argue that if anyone has cried wolf, it is Margie Kieper with Gonu in the Sea of Oman. Hear the female instinct for care taking in this quote.

This is sad -- the very area that I documented last night, at the extreme southeastern tip of Oman, is going to be the hardest hit area from Gonu.

Bappit: Of course Gonu still poses a threat.

Freunk: But the fact is that Gonu is no longer the beast that captured our imagination. It is in fact forecast to begin dissipating while still over water.

Bappit: Can we learn anything from these recent events?

Freunk: Since drawing a conclusion from these anecdotes is hardly scientific, here is my unscientific conclusion. We tend to exaggerate the significance of storms that have captured our imagination and underestimate the significance of storms that have not captured our imagination.

Bappit: Capturing our imagination? Is there a more scientific way of putting that?

Freunk: Of course: We need to be aware of when the adrenaline has kicked in and the adrenaline is blogging versus when we are disappointed that the adrenaline has NOT kicked in and it is our disappointment that is blogging. Of course, being rational is no fun.

Bappit: Thank you, Dr. Freunk, for your interesting insights. Blogging in the blog from the Weather Underground, this has been an interview with Dr. Niehls Freunk, specialist in hurricane psychology.
Wind has just picked up, car port is wobbling, and the rain is horizontal.
Similar to expatmummy, we had plenty of wind, rain and lightning about 4am but since then its more like what'd be called 'miserable' in the UK. I'm not complaining although I do feel a bit guilty for not going into the office.

Morning from qurum, muscat - not the heaviest rain i've seen in 15 years i've lived here but certainly more than sufficient to get the wadis overflowing. haven't ventured out yet so no sense of general damage and no idea of conditions further afield. wouldn't expect any structural damage from wind although flooding from the wadis will no doubt cause a few problems. the sea state is in range 2mts~3mts (can see from house which is 200mts back from sea and some 15mts above sea level). no sign of traffic on roads - beachfront road is deserted. back to mopping up :-(

Just back from Qurum beach to my home in Azaiba. I am an Indian and compared to what I have seen in South India during cyclone season, this is so far a drizzle accompanied by a light breeze. The rains that we had a few months back was much stronger.
Hi Makato and ic4ibod, we are in Azaiba. Have you been listening to the Radio, Fiek has just had a guy from the local met office on who has said the Gonu is currently a catorgary 4 storm! I thought we were down to cat 1 levels.
for iran, lots of rain
expat- The guy is misinformed.. Gonu is a cat 1, if that now, he's continuously weakening.
iran will get soaked
Expatmummy - surely you know its a matter of saving face! By saying its a category 4 it's serious enough to warrant everything closing down, but, as with everything else, it still leaves scope for the UAE to go one better! Apparently Dubai is the only place in the world with cat 6 storms!

I haven't left the house yet; do you know if Starbucks is open in MQ?

Ramsabi - know where you're coming from; I've been in Kerala for mango showers and monsoon. But don;t forget, we just can;t handle this amount of water in Muscat. Has anyone seen the Sulta Centre floating by?
Does anyone know if parts of Muscat have lost power? No problems in MQ or Ras Al Hamra.
Does anyone know if parts of Muscat have lost power? No problems in MQ or Ras Al Hamra.
Yellow= Cat 1 Winds 74-95mph
Green = Tropical Storm Winds 39-73mph
Light Blue = Tropical Depression Winds <39mph
a



You all should be OK in Muscat, You are only forecast to receive Tropical Storm force winds. You should not see Hurricane Force winds at all.
huricanefcast show a link tothat please

071 wtio31 pgtw 060300 msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc// subj/tropical cyclone warning// rmks/ 1. Tropical cyclone 02a (gonu) warning nr 016 01 active tropical cyclone in northio Max sustained winds based on one-minute average --- warning position: 060000z --- near 22.6n 60.0e movement past six hours - 315 degrees at 08 kts position accurate to within 040 nm position based on center located by satellite present wind distribution: Max sustained winds - 080 kt, gusts 100 kt radius of 064 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant 050 nm southeast quadrant 035 nm southwest quadrant over water 040 nm northwest quadrant over water radius of 050 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant 075 nm southeast quadrant 060 nm southwest quadrant over water 065 nm northwest quadrant over water radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant 100 nm southeast quadrant 085 nm southwest quadrant over water 095 nm northwest quadrant over water repeat posit: 22.6n 60.0e --- forecasts: 12 hrs, valid at: 061200z --- 23.4n 59.0e Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt radius of 050 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant 075 nm southeast quadrant 060 nm southwest quadrant over water 065 nm northwest quadrant over water radius of 034 kt winds - 125 nm northeast quadrant 095 nm southeast quadrant 080 nm southwest quadrant over water 090 nm northwest quadrant over water vector to 24 hr posit: 315 deg/ 06 kts --- 24 hrs, valid at: 070000z --- 24.2n 58.1e Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt radius of 050 kt winds - 090 nm northeast quadrant 065 nm southeast quadrant 070 nm southwest quadrant over water 065 nm northwest quadrant radius of 034 kt winds - 115 nm northeast quadrant 095 nm southeast quadrant 080 nm southwest quadrant over water 090 nm northwest quadrant vector to 36 hr posit: 325 deg/ 06 kts --- 36 hrs, valid at: 071200z --- 25.2n 57.3e Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt radius of 034 kt winds - 105 nm northeast quadrant over water 090 nm southeast quadrant over water 075 nm southwest quadrant over water 085 nm northwest quadrant over water vector to 48 hr posit: 330 deg/ 06 kts --- extended outlook: 48 hrs, valid at: 080000z --- 26.2n 56.7e Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water radius of 034 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant over water 080 nm southeast quadrant over water 065 nm southwest quadrant over water 075 nm northwest quadrant over water vector to 72 hr posit: 350 deg/ 04 kts --- 72 hrs, valid at: 090000z --- 27.7n 56.4e Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land --- remarks: 060300z position near 22.8n 59.7e. Tropical cyclone (tc) 02a (gonu) located approximately 100 nm southeast of muscat, Oman, has tracked northwestward at 08 knots over the past 06 hours. Current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 75 to 90 knots with a 55-knot decrease in intensity over the past 24 hours. Animated satellite imagery and a 052149z AMSR-E image show a slight improvement in overall organization over the past 06 hours but a continued erosion of deep convection over the eastern semi-Circle. However, the 36v ghz image indicates that the system still has a well-developed low-level structure with a weak microwave eye. This image supports the initial storm position and motion. There is very little change in the track philosophy from the previous fore- cast. Tc 02a is forecast to continue its rapid weakening trend due to dry air entrainment, land interaction, and a sharp decrease in ocean heat content. Tc 02a continues to track along the southwest periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge and is forecast to track northwestward through tau 36. After tau 36, the track is forecast to become more north-northwestward as the system moves into a weakness in the steering ridge enhanced by an approaching shortwave trough. There is increased uncertainty in track after tau 24 since steering will shift to a lower level as the tc weakens under 60 knots and this low-level steering could produce a more westward track toward ash shariqah. It is important to note that tc 02a will become a very weak tc with 30-40 knot intensity after tau 48 due to extremely dry air. Therefore, regardless of the 48-72 hour track, the system will not be a significant tc. The available dynamic aids have stabilized and are in good agreement with the northwestward track and rapid weakening trend. This forecast is based on a consensus of the aids through the period. Maximum significant wave height at 060000z is 30 feet. Next warnings at 060900z, 061500z and 062100z.//
@ic4ibod
yes I agree, we are certainly not equipped to handle even a cat 1. I guess. And I am not referring to the mango showers or monsoons of Kerala. I am talking about the cyclones that hit the East Coast of India - Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa - with frightening regularity and horrendous loss of life and property.
No problems with power in Azaiba (around Safeer Hypermarket) so far. Actually I saw Safeer staff going to work. Starbucks by the beach at Qurum was closed !!
If anyone can tell me how to post images, I have a good shot of the beach and date trees at Qurum beach.
ramsabi- You have to have the image in a URL, if you don't, try opening an account at www.photobucket.com and then uploading your pictures that way. They will host them for you and you can copy and paste the url. When you have a URL, one way or another, you can click image right above where you type your comment you are posting. Then you paste the URL, enter the size of the image(Typical is Width 800, Height 600) and then just type "...." for alternate text, so you can preview the image, and then just hit ok on the last part, don't type anything. If you don't enter something for alternate text, you can't see the code(At least for me) so just enter anything for the alternate text. Then hit preview comment before you post, hopefully your picture is there, and if you need to resize the image, this way, you can. Just simply change the number values in the code. Hit post when you're done. That's it.

If this is at all confusing, please just tell me what confuses you and I will try to Clarify it. Hope it works! Works for me..
HurricaneFCast
Thank you very much . Dew
Dew- No problem man, anytime!
Ramsabi- Is the picture you wish to post the one of the Date Trees in your wunder photos section?
Power is out in Bausher, a friend lives near Lulu's. We are fine here a far end of Azaiba all along Nov 18 looks good to. House is doing well, other friends have been up mopping since 4am due to new indoor waterfall feature down their stair case. That seems o be the big problem, lack of drains and buildings not designed to withstand any amount of rain.
wind certainly strengthening and sea state picking up (i'm near crowne plaza and have full view of sea). trees beginning to take a fair bashing and visibility reducing in rain. pity starbucks closed on beach - ruins my day off work :-(

i'd agree with face saving view but to give the authorities their due they've never had to deal with this before. just been told that ROP have said all to stay indoors from 11.00 onwards
@HurricaneFCast
Yes HF that is the one.

Definitley wind picking up. And sharp gusts.
It's getting a bit more intense in MQ, and I'm keeping an eye on the small wadi behind my house. Visibility donw to about a kilometre. Not necessarily much more than a force 5 or 6 though; still sailable if my wife would let me go to the beach!
Winds ar really starting to blow, but that hasn't stopped the builders on the house accross the road from us!!
638. sesh
I am staying in alkuwair 33 , muscat and though the whole climate looks typical of depression syptoms...the cyclonic climate is not yet seen....probably of weakening to cat 1/2 ...little drizzle around here with wind speed not exceeding 10 kph ....
Can any one tell me when exactly the eye of cyclone passing muscat
full-scale mopping up in qurum. correction to my earlier post - this is the heaviest rain (intensity and duration) i've seen here in 15 years. we're even on the bbc right now.

this will take on epic proportions around expat dinner party tables in years to come. won't be cat 6; it'll be cat 8 in dubai and they won't even get a drop of rain!!!
lol I hear ya Matako I hear ya ;lol.well it is if nothing else different weather for you .
Date trees in Gonu wind at qurum beach, muscat, oman at 0730 local time.
Just lost power in MQ. But its not too bad becasue my wife can stillgo into the garden for a cigarette.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.5 RPT T4.5. SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW CDO PATTERN. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 80 KTS GUSTING 90 KTS.

That was 0300 UTC, or 10pm EST, I'm not sure the time zone of Oman...
@HurricaneFCast
Muscat, Oman time zone is GMT +4
@HurricaneFCast

Muscat is +4GMT. just coming up to 11.00am
Saving power and signing off from Muscat. Cheerio!
Thinking of you all in muscat,lived there for 7 years but now in Saudi, my Son and daughter in law are still there so obviously worried.my daughter is in muscat my son is in Ibri on rig surrounded by wadis so hoping all the reports stating Cat 1 are correct.
RSMC New Delphi
Issued 0600am UTC


Based on 0300am UTC weather charts
===========================
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GONU MOVED SLIGHTLY INLAND AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 06TH JUNE, 2007 NEAR LAT. 23.0N AND LONG 59.0E .

MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 80 KTS GUSTING 90 KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND EMERGE INTO GULF OMAN. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T3.5 RPT T3.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.

649. sesh
can anybody get a view of MAF far sea......?
still have power in qurum. wind speed continues to pick up - say F5. hear that road through wadi adai (major road out of muscat to quriyat - 90kms SE muscat) has been washed away in 2 locations. that road was only re-constructed 4 years ago and as afar as i can recall culverts and bridges were designed on basis of 50-year storm return period. but remains to be seen whether reports are true
The storm is said to be 150 kms away from Muscat still and the situation is already scary in Muscat. I live in Al Khuwair just near Safeer Super Market on the Al Khuwair Street. The service road is water clogged. There is heavy wind. Some parts of Al Khuwair the electricity is already off. I wonder what it will be like around 4 or 5 pm when it is expected that the storm will be passing thru Muscat onshore.

I have heard of cyclones and storms living in Chennai but have never experienced one passing thru the place of my living. This will be an experience of a life time.

Regards
R. Sathyamurthy
http://murtheories.blogspot.com
@sesh

I'm 150mts from crowne plaza and have a view looking due west straight up coast towards and beyond intercon. on clear days i can see airport and beyond (30+kms). right now i can just see the crowne plaza cos of limited viz. don't expect anyone in RAH or MAF will be able to see much in northerly direction towards jazirat fahal. sea state i guess must be well past 3mt height by now
Visit http://picasaweb.google.com/samaruna for some photos taken by me in the last few hours at Al Khuwair, Muscat.

Regards
R. Sathyamurthy
http://murtheories.blogspot.com
Samaruna & Matako - remember the old adage - "Hide from wind & run from water". Be safe & good luck to you. Let us know how you fare.
655. sesh
Oman time 11.45am ...(gmt 7.45am..)
The wind speeds have increased at alkhuwair 33 , muscat may be 20 kmh and rain pouring non stop....wooden fence walls constructed around (under construction) apartment are torn apart to 30%....

Any info on the view of MAF..PDO where oil loading on to the ships takes place...?
@sesh

i'd say wind speed much higher than 20kmph - reckon we're in the region of 40knots+

understand PDO moved all tankers off the SBMs yesterday afternoon.

just lost power so time to log off.

be back in touch.

I live in Bowsher - there lot of talk on the Arabic language radio - but svery little in English.
A colleague told me that power and land phone conection is OUT in Qurum Heights
I am told ADSL lines are still working - these can be used for voice calls
Thank god for the MOBILE
My condo is not affected yet MUSCAT OASIS RESIDENCES
658. sesh
why is this cyclone named as GONU....who names them...?
Does somebody has time to explain...
12:30 Oman time
Message from friend down in Bander Rawder mariner, (eastward facing part of coastline in Muscat).
'Waves breaking over breakwater, (which is 8m high). Raining Cats and Dogs and Dogs blowing off leads'.
Not holding out any hope for mine or any other yachts in there, even tho it is well designed.
As well as storm surge tide is still on the push for the next hour topping out at 2.5m.....Worried for people being flooded out in low coastal areas...
Good luck to anyone there...
660. sesh
thanks matako....you are really informative..are u working with PDO?
I heard that in Al Khuwair most of the restaurants are open - kudos to these souls.

In Wattayah the power supply is unaffected

This is a far serious situation than what we imagined on Tuesday afternoon. Hats off to the foresight of the authorities. Otherwise traffic snarls would have affected all emergerncy and rescue work. Also phone lines would have been choked
According to late evening reports, high tides swept through Kalba coasts, flooding the great garden at Al Faisail, the Heritage Museum at the old house of Shaikh Saeed Al Qasimi, as well as some residential districts. Bad weather conditions affected the normal activities along the East Coast. Construction activities at Al Qariya were temporarily halted as water submerged the construction equipment, while desalination facilities at Qadfa were flooded with rain waters. Strong waves smashed the breakwaters at Sharm and Bedia, resulting in flooding. Traffic from Khor Fakkan to Dibba came to a standstill.
FM radio report 1258 hrs
Present wind speed is 70 to 80 knots at the coast. in Bowsher the wind speed is much lower around 15 knots
the cyclone is Moving north-NW at 18 kms per hour. likely to hit Muscat in 3 hours
664. sesh
Oman time : 1300 hrs

The visibility has improved and rain decreased...as seen from alkhuwair 33...are these any signs of Gonu retreating....
Power is back in MQ. Lots of water, but no damage to report. I guess we're just about getting to the worst of it. There's a good link on the 2nd or 3rd page of this blog to a US Navy web-site that has satellite images no more than an hour old. Good for tracking the progress.

The water is the porblem; it's windier than this every day on the coast and aMasirah through the summer.

How's the water in Al Khuwier - that's a nast bottle neck by the round-a-bout.

Is there any news from Sur or Masirah?
Morning y'all. Great to see everyone. I hope all are staying safe.

Got to get my self to work here on the E coast of the US. Again, hope everyone in Oman is staying safe and I hope everyone was clear of the surge. Weakening storm or not, it will/did still carry a cat 3 to 4 surge with it I would think.

StormJunkie.com
Hey, I am trying to contact my father who stays in Sur.. Could anyone staying in Muscta please let me know what the situation in Sur is..
Any word if the surge will affect the freshwater supply?
Seems like the mojo is building in the Western Atlantic again. Have a nice day
Morning, all.
Took a look at the ATL this morning. Seems we have 4 tropical waves draped from 20W to 90W. However, the ITCZ is still draped way down over South America, so that the waves are not riding up above 10N before they enter the Pacific. I note that the wave currently entering the Pacific is forecast to turn into a low by Thursday.

Meanwhile it's mostly overcast skies for us here - Nassau - and hopefully the humidity will not kick up too high like it did on Monday!

Hopefully everyone survived Gonu safely. It sounds like the situation was fairly serious in Oman, though not as serious as it could have been . . .

Have a good day all.
More tropical moisture headed for South Florida. The local weather man said it should be here by Noon. Link
Is there any news from people in SUR as I am unable to contact my father who stays in SUR.. Anyone who has got any communication from the place, could you please post a message here...
WORRIEDDAUGHTER
I live in Muscat Sur was hit by the cyclone early this morning. I got news from one of my colleagues in SUR that there is no majory devastation in Sur. However some damage in invitable
Land line phones are not working in SUR area but mobiles are working
Hi eSKimoman,
thanks a lot for the update.. I am unable to reach my father both on the landline and even the mobile.. Could you please ask your friend if the rains have subsided in SUR.. that would be very helpful and if I could get a latest update on the situation there.. thanks once again
675. FLBoy
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
75 KNOTS. TC 02A HAS EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE
ARABIAN PENINSULA. A 060353Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED, BUT HAS LOST DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OVER IRAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST ASIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU
48 AND 72 IN SOUTHERN IRAN. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 28 FEET.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 982.4mb/ 57.0kt


Gonu has weakened considerably. I know for those going through this it doesn't seem that way. Just know that this is not the horrible monster it was 36 hours ago.
Hope you all are well and safe.
677. FLBoy

679. FLBoy
Starting to get some Youtube's of Gonu.
680. FLBoy





Muscat: Cyclone Gonu hit the capital of Oman on Wednesday lunchtime, bringing high winds and heavy rain.

The storm had moved up the coast after making landfall in the eastern region in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

It is now thought to be moving north towards Iran, with heavy weather also expected to hit the UAE on Wednesday evening and during Thursday.

The force of cyclone Gonu knocked out power lines and cut off the eastern region of the country after it hit the coast at around 3am.

However the storm has weakened and has been downgraded to a Category One cyclone according to the US military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center said.

Electricity and telephones lines were cut off as a result of the storm, but power has been restored in some areas.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


There is thought to have been extensive damage to property but so far no fatalities have been reported.

Oil and gas terminals in the country will remain closed for a second day because of the poor weather, according to media reports.

In Iran, authorities evacuated hundreds of people living in the port city of Chabahr on the coast of the Sea of Oman, believed to be next in the cyclone's path.

Azhar Al Kindi, a member of Oman's National Committee for Civil Defence, said the government was working to restore power to the region.

He added: There is extensive damage to properties in most towns in the eastern region including Sur and Ras Al Hadd.

There is a great impact but the magnitude of the damage is not known yet. All our police stations are on high alert but so far there has not been any reported injuries, missing persons or fatalities since last night.

Al Kindi added that the early warning and transparency about the storm had allowed residents to arm themselves about the full magnitude of the approaching storm and take appropriate steps.


CNN article.
Good morning everyone.
i want to assure all the people on the gulf coast we are in good shape for the next 2 weeks as for as tropical storms are concerned..we continue to have the strong west winds and the wind shear will not let anything form for at least another 2 weeks or longer...this pattern looks like its going to stay for a while...GOOD NEWS!!!!!!!guys ill be in from time to time..StormKat
Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
Link
I'll sleep better ..Kat..LoL
mornin all! :)

good to see Gonu weakened, I wouldn't wish a cat-5 on anybody, even my worst enemy!

course if we could get a "small" cat-5 to hit Hugo Chavez's house, that'd be ok! LOL

In reality, the "people" of Iran, Oman, Arab Emirates are for the most part, pro American. It is the governments, of Iran in particular, that hate America.

but I think most would agree, it is inappropriate to wish death and destruction on anybody! It is the "people" who suffer, the Government will be protected.
FLA gonna get some rain today? Whats that blob about?
GOM in IR Link
688. FLBoy

Fujairah: Huge tides and increasingly high waves are battering the east coast of UAE even as panic and curiosity spread among the residents.

Authorities have ordered the evacuation of residents in some areas of Fujairah and Kalba, laying on buses to move people into temporary refuge centres at a number of local schools.

The main route in and out of the east coast town of Kalba has been shut down and residents, in areas close to the advancing sea water, have been ordered to evacuate their homes.

The continuous surge of seawater is threatening to overwhelm homes and government buildings, especially in the area of Al Nighelat, despite the barriers of sand erected to halt the storm tide.

Farms and buildings in other parts of the east coast, including Al Sharm, Merbeh and Qidfeh, are reported to have been flooded as authorities struggle to cope with fast developing conditions.

A number of key roads have been closed down by police all along the east coast and hastily created diversions have created traffic congestion and confusion among motorists.

In addition, police and civil defense patrols are working to stop curious crowds from gathering at beaches and corniche areas.

Dozens of water tanks and trucks carrying sand are continuously working to mop up the vast amounts of sea water.

Authorities have urged residents not to panic and have called upon them to cooperate fully with directions issued, including a plea not to make unnecessary journeys into coastal areas.

Gonu means a bag made of palm leaves in the language of the Maldives.
689. FLBoy
Published: 06/06/2007 12:00 AM (UAE)

Iran readies for Gonu landfall
Agencies



Tehran: Authorities evacuated hundreds of residents of the Iranian port of Chabahr on the coast of Oman Sea on Wednesday out of fear of an approaching cyclone, a local official said.

Southern Iran and the oil-rich Arabian Gulf were next in its path of cyclone Gonu, which was lashing Oman's eastern coast since late Tuesday, with thousands of people evacuated from Oman's low-lying areas in what was the strongest recorded storm to hit the Arabian peninsula.

Iranian state television said that floods, caused by the heavy rainfall, have already cut some major roads in southeastern Iran. Winds gusting up to 110 kilometres per hour have reached costal areas near the Jask town, 1,800 kilometres southeast of Tehran, the TV said.

"University and school students were moved to higher ground in the area to avoid the cyclone effects,'' Hojjat Ali Shayanfar, head of emergency services in Iran's Sistan Baluchistan province told AP.

Shayanfar gave no figures but said residents from low-laying parts of the town of Chabahr were evacuated. "We also turned off a local electric power plant as a preventive measure.''

Initial winds reaching the coastal town measured 50-60 kilometres per hour.

Iran's meteorological department in a statement carried by state television warned people in other coastal areas and islands in the Oman Sea and Strait of Hormuz to keep their distance from the waters and avoid any sea transport. It also said that height of the waves would reach to 18 feet, a rare record in the area.

"The storm began early morning Wednesday and will weaken gradually in the Lut desert in central Iran in the coming days,'' the state TV's weather forecast said.

Meanwhile the IRNA official news agency reported that four boats capsized during the storm but no casualties were reported.

When asked if he expected the cyclone to disrupt energy exports from the second biggest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, senior Iranian oil official Hojjatollah Ghanimifard said: "My expectation is none."
Thanks for the updates, FLBoy. We were wondering. Good coverage.
Anyone know if that blob of rain in the SE GOM will make it to centeral south FL?
Morning All. The Atlantic SST's are going to heat-up quick with THESE conditions. Very little wave activity. Great week for boating in the South East.
guys ill be in from time to time..StormKat

Don't threaten me... ;)
Morning guys...

Nogaps this morning developing something in the SW caribbean and taken north towards florida.Lets if more models jump on board later.

Nogaps Page

The continuous surge of seawater is threatening to overwhelm homes and government buildings, especially in the area of Al Nighelat, despite the barriers of sand erected to halt the storm tide.

Unfortunately, a bare sand barrier would get breached VERY quickly by even moderate wave action. I hope they used sandbags and not just a sand barrier. As we've mentioned over the last few days, this really is an unprecedented event over there, so the knowledge of the small details of storm prep is prob. very limited.
Is it me or does it seem like the disturbance migrating over the SE GOM have a circulation to it? Also, note the blob that has remained strong over the Yucatan Peninsula. It too seems to have some circulation. I know this may be caused by the strong upper level winds, but very interesting to note. Storms coming to South Florida seem to be building back on themselves....we may see some training going on with some street flooding here. Link to the IR is below. Loop the image and zoom in on the SE GOM.
Link
Good Morning All.....But for the shear in the GOM, I would agree that the disturbance off the SW coast FL (which does appear to have some circulation)could easily "spin up" into another TS......But, in any event, we need all the rain we can get............
RSMC New Delphi
1200pm UTC bulletin


============
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GONU LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF 06TH JUNE 2007 NEAR LAT. 23.5N AND LONG. 59.5E .

CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.5 RPT T4.5 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW CDO PATTERN. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 970HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED 90 KTS GUSTING 100 KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T4.0 RPT T4.0 SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.

--------------
They raised the sustained winds overnight slightly.. they are estimating winds of 105 knots (1 min)

Hi eSKimoman,
My mother is ver worried and she wants to speak to your friend from SUR to know the status in SUR, so if you could please provide his telephone number.. I am unable to reach my father neither on the GSM or on the landline..

Hi eSKimoman,
My mother is very worried and she wants to speak to your friend from SUR to know the status in SUR, so could you please provide his telephone number.. I am unable to reach my father neither on the GSM or on the landline..

Does anyone think the convection emerging off Belize or also the convection north of the Panama/Costa Rica border has a chance to develop into anything?
Do you think anything that spins up near FLA could come through eastern NC like Barry did?

We can use the rain...
worried daughter,i read a report i think it was the cnn link not sure been looking on so many sites try not to worry as the report stated no loss of lives for the sur region a lot were evacuated to goverment buildings but all phones lines where down maybe all the moblie masts have been affected to.
Huge flare up of thunderstorms across the gulf right now and its movement is towards florida so look for increaseing thunderstorm activity soon.Adrian
H23:

Looks like that convection may be over the eddies in the GOM. Booming nicely. Hopefully it will bring some more rain to N. FL.


B
The C-Man bouy NE of the disturbance off Florida has been showing an average increase in steady winds to around 18 knots over the past few hours.....While I would not expect TS development, if the thunderstorm activity persists over the next several hours, we may see a special tropical disturbance statement from NWS this afternoon........BTW..You are correct; that is the same loop current eddy which apparently gave Barry a shot in the arm last week
You wouldn't think anything can form in the GOM with shear so high, but who knows.
Weathermanwannabe- There is 45kt shear across the entire eastern GOM. There's no tropical disturbance there, there's going to be no special statement. It's typical Florida thunderstorms... Moisture in the gulf rises in the atmosphere, condenses, and is blown immediately inland. It's that time of year, it happens. Trust me, it's not even something to watch.
Cajun- It won't. Lol. Stop hoping. It's just some thunderstorms. You can view satellite imagery from various sources and easily see that these are just thunderstorms. There's no ULL or LLC and there's no signs of organization. Watch how the shear rips up storms on the northern side and carries them inland. There's better things to watch than this. Don't take this personally though, ok man? I'm just telling it like it is.
No problem F-Cast; Florida is starting to finally fall into the typical summer rain pattern and we have not been used to seeing so much convection around the State this season....But, for the shear however, I think we could have otherwise had a viable invest....
Weathermanwannabe- Definitely... That's my main argument and why I see those comments as inane. I completely agree with you there. But, With this shear, let's just use some common sense- 50kt shear + close proximity to land = No Chance at tropical development. We both know that. It's simple logic.
0 chance of any kind of tropical development across the gulf with shear values running from 40-60kts across the area.Just look for increasing thunderstorm activty across south florida with a good chance of strong storms.Adrian
Besides the MOJO aint right.

MOJO's risin..... LOL
cane23...whats is the chance of any of those storms in S. Fl making it a little further north?. Is there something that is keeping them south?
Hurricane23- Thank You for the supporting input. Lol, I was wondering why so many people were starting to believe development was possible.. I'm glad someone else agrees with me. Anyways, look everyone, here's the reason you will not see any development.. Just take a look. a
NOAA site for MJO that I saw had 2005 info on it for 2007 is backup server. This is the correct link for current MJO information on the CPC website is now Link

They are making it right like anyone cares but nitpicky me!! LOL
Stampapaul- To answer your question.. There is a good chance that storms will form later today, further north in the GOM. Areas that are barely north of the current activity have an even better chance at seeing that rain.
Hurricane23,
So the Nogaps is picking up on something in the SW Carib? I saw the model run, there is defintely low shear down there and favorabler conditions, but the Gulf would need to settle
Posted By: stampapaul at 11:08 AM EDT on June 06, 2007. (hide)
cane23...whats is the chance of any of those storms in S. Fl making it a little further north?. Is there something that is keeping them south?

We are under a very unstable airmass today and it all amounts to a very good chance of some wide spread rain across SE florida.It looks like the heaviest concentration will be from the lake southward.Overall everyone has a good chance of getting some much needed rain.

Adrian's Weather
721. IKE
The GOM is suppose to become less hostile over the next 3 days according to the shear maps on WU....

THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...

OOPS! There's Barry!
No I'm not liking the blowup of convection in the gulf, we have very high moisture here in central Florida today with a PWAT of 2.20 inches and unstable conditions, problem is those thunderstorms are moving way to slow to affect us, all they are doing is throwing a blanket of high clouds over is which is doing nothing but bad, because all though there is tons of rich tropical moisture and decent intsability out there, I don't see any big lifting mechinism.

So really our chance of seeing widespread storms is less likely now due to these thunderstorms in the gulf.

Untill we get some other vertical lifting mechinism in here these overcast conditions from convection in the gulf is going to spoil our chance of heavy storms in central Florida today.
fcast and adrian...thanks for the responses....it appears that everything approach ing central Fl is drying up before it reaches land
Posted By: IKE at 3:18 PM GMT on June 06, 2007.

The GOM is suppose to become less hostile over the next 3 days according to the shear maps on WU....

THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...

OOPS! There's Barry!



That convection is going to die this will become nothing I can tell you right now nothing is coming out of this, its only doing bad for us Floridans today.
725. IKE
I never said anything would form.
HF,
Dude, I wasn't hoping for anything. I'm not a wish-caster. I said you wouldn't think anything can form with shear so high. I just will not say I can't happen b/c that was all thrown out the window in 05. In light of all that...I agree, there is nothing but some good rain out there for FL.
Posted By: IKE at 3:18 PM GMT on June 06, 2007.
The GOM is suppose to become less hostile over the next 3 days according to the shear maps on WU....

THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...THE SHEARS TOO HIGH...

OOPS! There's Barry!


....lol, I hear you, Ike! You could be right!!!

...Adrian, thanks for the update!
actually as I just stated those storms look good for Florida but they are really doing nothing but bad, we would get a lot more rain over central Florida today if that junk would only just fall apart and stop spreading its thick upper cloud deck over central Florida.
I just looked at the latest runs and they seem to be hinting at much relaxed shear entering the Gulf by about 5-6 days from now. Anyone else see that?
This rain is very much welcomed across all parts across florida especially across the lake were much rain is still needed before that situation even begins to get better.
Oh it looks like IKE is already on top of it. lol
Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS) Gonu Link
Posted By: quakeman55 at 11:26 AM EDT on June 06, 2007. (hide)
I just looked at the latest runs and they seem to be hinting at much relaxed shear entering the Gulf by about 5-6 days from now. Anyone else see that?

That would be correct as the Nogaps and the GFS are showing windshear dropping in the week or so.We'll see.

Here is the nogaps

fff
Is there any update from people in Muscat or SUR... Please post messages if any latest news has been received from SUR..
MJO is still lingering.

mjo
Hurricane, I see what you are saying but it appears to be a flip flop with the NW Caribbean in which wind shear looks to be on the increase.

Also, I seem to remember the models about two weeks ago saying that wind shear was expected to be relaxed by now.

We shall see. It's still very early in the season.
Looks like Gonu is building the tops before landfall.
Jed are you from the Beverly Hillbillies. You been saying some wierd stuff the past couple days.
739. FLBoy
...SERN U.S...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MFL AND TBW INDICATE TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHEARING APART OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MLCAPES ARE
ALREADY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PEN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER
SRN FL...BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS AT JAX/TLH INDICATE STRONGER SHEAR INTO
NRN FL. THUS A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...MAY SUPPORT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND SLGT RISK
OVER THIS REGION.

5 Day QPF.
Has there been any tropical entities in the Gulf of Oman before?
Nice rain at my house. I don't see a depression out of this one. There isn't a LLC.
743. Inyo
Looks like Gonu is having a burst of convection over that 90 degree water. It probably won't be enough to increase wind speed but I'll bet it means more flooding rains for Iran.

10 inches of rain in Florida sits on the ground and slowly soaks in. 10 inches of rain in the desert means intense flash flooding.
Posted in Margies blog a few minutes ago...



Posted By: PRW at 10:47 AM CDT on June 06, 2007.
A view from Muscat:
As of 1500Z 6 May, it appears that the winds seem to have a touch of Southwesterly. It has been raining consistently since last night. Winds observed along the northern beaches in the vicinity of Muscat were around 40kts just before mid-day, but seemed to build mid afternoon to something like minimal Cat 1 or less.

I have no access to equipment to confirm any of this, merely seaman's eye.

Reports are that Ras al Had was hit pretty hard. Storm surge noes not appear to be a major factor as of yet in this area (Qurum to Shatti). The real impact to the greater Muscat area is the inability of the terrain to handle even small amounts of rain. The ground is hard and rocky. Muscat lies between the mountains and the sea, only a few apart and the runoff fills the many wadis on its way to the Gulf. Some of the surface roads are merely paved across the wadis, while most of the main motorway is elevated above them. There are numerous places where roads are impassable - to the point where water levels crested jersey barrier median dividers. It will take several days, after the rain stops, for the run-off to subside and damage to the road infrastructure can be determined. Seeb Airport is also susceptible to flooding, so there is no guess when it may be back in operation.

Wunderground continues to be the most reliable source for information on this somewhat rare storm.

From Muscat,

pw
745. FLBoy
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...

MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE IS DEEPENING WITH PWATS ABOVE
2 INCHES IN S FL AND AROUND 1.8 IN ACROSS C FL. SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR STILL PRESENT AND MID LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY COOL WITH -11C AT
H5. THICK CLOUD DECK HAS DELAYED HEATING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME NVA OVER THE C PENINSULA AT PRESENT. WITH
SHORTWAVE/PVA UPSTREAM AND FAVORABLE JET LIFT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAX...ANTICIPATE ONCE THE STORMS GET
GOING THEY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED TORNADO/SPOUT WITH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATING N-S POP TREND WITH HIGEST VALUES IN THE SOUTH...THIS
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
The efforts here do not go out in vain. Thanks for the update PRW. Best of Luck from us here.
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:45 PM GMT on June 06, 2007.

Has there been any tropical entities in the Gulf of Oman before?


I believe the consensus on that one is no.
748. FLBoy
Here's what I could find:

Gulf News readers share Gonu experiences
Staff Report



Dubai: A few Dubai residents who were in Oman to attend a business meeting say they are now stranded as the main Muscat-Dubai highway is flooded.

Ali Zaheer spoke to Gulf News about his situation: Were now stranded. We stuck to the television in the hotel and didn't attempt to drive or walk as six inches of moving water can sweep you off your feet!

Mr. Zaheer has also sent Gulf News some video clips of the flooded roads that he has captured on his mobile phone.

A Dubai church minister has also been left stranded in Muscat after Cyclone Gonu hit the Omani capital.

The Reverend Stephen Miller from the Mission to Seafarers told Gulf News that lampposts were being knocked over by trees uprooted in the mountains.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


With the water waist deep in the flat he is staying in, Rev Miller said he was likely to be stuck in Muscat until Saturday.

"It's just torrential. The rain started this morning and the water has been building up. Everywhere we are just surrounded by a huge torrent of sandy and muddy water," he said.

Another reader, Mr Ramachandran Nair also spoke to Gulf News from Oman about the fierce winds and downpour that has affected Muscat since last night.

Nobody is stepping out because you cannot move because of the force of the winds. I live on the first floor and cannot step out to check on my car parked below, Mr. Nair said.

Mr. Nair said as he and his family was well prepared for the cyclone as the authorities had been sending out mobile alerts since Tuesday.

They were lucky to be able to stock up on essential food items at the supermarket as by afternoon things like meat were sold out, he said.


749. Inyo
Posted By: quakeman55 at 3:54 PM GMT on June 06, 2007.
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:45 PM GMT on June 06, 2007.

Has there been any tropical entities in the Gulf of Oman before?


I believe the consensus on that one is no.


In the last 100 years, no. That gulf has been there for tens of millions of years so I think it is safe to say that it has happened before, maybe it is just very rare, maybe it is a factor of changing climate regimes, who can say
Short Video of Gonu ..Muscat Link
751. FLBoy
Here's a CNN International article. Just not a lot of information yet. I'm sure we'll be getting more as things begin to clear up.
Last night on Deadliest Catch they said that winds in the Bering Sea get up to 200kts often.

Is that true? anyone...
753. FLBoy
The last time Oman was hit by a Cat.1 or better was in 1890. 700 were killed then. There were several other tropical storms in the 70's and I believe in the 90's.
754. FLBoy
Nobody I know has been able to find any record of any storm striking Iran in recorded history, myself included.
Maybe someone else might know.
756. FLBoy
TROPICAL STORM GONU ADVISORY NO. THIRTY-FOUR AT 1500 UTC OF 6TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 6TH JUNE 2007. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GONU MOVED NORTWESTWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 06TH JUNE 2007 NEAR LAT. 24.00N AND LONG. 59.00 E.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.5 RPT T4.5 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 970HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED 90 KTS GUSTING 100 KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T4.0 RPT T4.0 SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.
757. MTJax
...SRN STREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NAM IS TOO DRY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND STRETCHING
SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM
INITIALIZED PWATS ARE UP TO 0.4 INCHES TOO LOW ACRS SRN LA. RAOB
DATA AND GOES-SOUNDER PW DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM IS UP TO 0.25 OF AN
INCH TOO LOW ACRS COASTAL AREAS OF SRN TX AND INTO THE ADJACENT
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TOO WEAK AT H5 IN
DEPICTING A VORT MAXIMA OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED IN
WV IMAGERY NR 25.5N AND 92.5W. THIS ENERGY IS INFLUENCING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...GOES
HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUGGEST A MORE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
AROUND H3 THAN WHAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED.
THE CONVECTIVE V-SIGNATURE IN IR SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
CONCLUSION.

THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THRU 36 HRS AND THEN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE H5 CLSD LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE BAHAMAS
THEREAFTER VS A BROADER AND FLATTER
UPR TROF LIKE THE 00Z RUN HAD.

ORRISON


MODIS Terra Enlargement GONU :recent Link
MODIS Terra visible true color. GONU Link
Another view Terra Visible ,eastern side of Gonu Link
761. FLBoy
...SRN STREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THRU 36 HRS AND THEN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE H5 CLSD LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE BAHAMAS THEREAFTER VS A BROADER AND FLATTER
UPR TROF LIKE THE 00Z RUN HAD.
762. FLBoy
Sorry MT....I just ran across that.
NEW BLOG
GOM 4-panel WV ..Loop Link
Looking alittle more favorable around the yucatan. The flow from the west seems less down there.
767. FLBoy
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM SAINT LUCIE INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM.

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 1235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF
HOBE SOUND TO NEAR THE COAST AROUND TEQUESTA...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

*THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MARTIN COUNTY COASTAL WATERS.

AS THESE STORMS CROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND BARRIER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES...THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC...THEY WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLY A WATERSPOUT. TRY TO AVOID THESE STORMS IF POSSIBLE. IF YOU
GET CAUGHT OFFSHORE...MAKE SURE ALL SAFETY GEAR IS AVAILABLE AND
LIFE JACKETS ARE BEING WORN BY YOU AND YOUR CREW.

Gonu looks to be exploding convection-wise per sat image as it approaches Iran. Jihad! Yidiyidiyidiyidi!
769. FLBoy


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061644Z - 061845Z

A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN FL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG
WITH 7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WEAK E-W ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL...AND A FEW
SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING EVIDENT FARTHER N NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE. THE 12Z RAOB DATA FROM TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSON FL
SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND 35 TO 40 KT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. UPPER FLOW HAS SINCE BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD WITH HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE
OVER NRN FL. WV IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DRYING
OVER THE SERN STATES...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...SPREADING SEWD TOWARD NRN FL. THE WEAKENING MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY
SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN
PLACE...STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Guys, any news about people in Muscat and SUR... seems like communication with Muscat has also been cut off.. any latest information??
That "area of thunderstorms" is not going to develop in the GOM, Not with 50kt Wind Shear it's not. That's why the NAM is forecasting development in the Bahamas in 36hrs, not now. You can easily see the effects of the shear on the thunderstorms. Moisture is rising and condensing in the GOM, once it condenses and heat is released, the air gets lighter and the shear carries it inland. Please, This isn't tropical in the GOM.
Ok. So when is Chantal expected to come ashore in SW Florida?
Hi everybody
The worrieddaughter is no longer worried ;)
My father has called AT LAST :) He is absolutely fine, just that the communications have been cut, and power shutdown in SUR.. There is a litthle damage to the property, few uprooted trees.. The rainfall has subsided completely, so no worries :) I hope everyone in Muscat and SUR are fine.. Take care everybody.. Thanks a lot to everyone who has responded and have been providing latest details.