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Serious flooding in Puerto Rico from 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2008

Tropical disturbance 93L continues to dump torrential rains of up to four inches per hour on Puerto Rico. Storm total rainfall amounts have exceeded 20 to 30 inches in parts of southeast Puerto Rico where rivers are up to 14 feet above flood stage. Flash floods and mudslides have been reported across the east, southeast, and southeastern interior Puerto Rico. An additional 10-20 inches of rain is expected over western and southwestern Puerto Rico today, due to the very slow motion of 93L. The rains from 93L are the most that have fallen on the island since Hurricane Georges ten years ago (see below).

Infrared satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity remains intense, and upper-level outflow is now established on the north and east sides of 93L. Puerto Rico radar was down this morning, but Dominican Republic radar shows evidence of spiral bands beginning to form around the center, which appears to have pushed over the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, near Punta Cana. Winds have now shifted to westerly there, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large area of westerly winds to the south of Hispaniola, so 93L may have developed enough of a surface circulation to be classified as a tropical depression today. Wind shear is moderate, about 10-20 knots.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 93L.

Expect heavy rains of up to 10-20 inches to affect Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic today through Tuesday from this slow moving storm. Heavy rains will also spread over eastern portions of the Dominican Republic Monday, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in mountainous regions. Since most of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity is on its east side, it currently appears that Haiti and the Bahamas will escape dangerous heavy rains from this storm.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and most of the reliable forecast models predict that 93L will develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday. The GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will strengthen into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Thursday. However, there will be high wind shear very close to 93L for the next five days, and the storm may struggle at times with this high shear. Water temperatures are a warm 29°C and ocean heat content will be moderate over the next five days. The NHC is giving 93L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 93L Monday afternoon.

The track forecast
The models agree on a slow west-northwesterly motion for 93L today, and passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola may significantly disrupt the storm. By Tuesday, 93L is expected to turn north-northwest and head towards North Carolina. A major complicating factor in the long-range track forecast is the expected development of an extratropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. This low could bring hostile wind shear over 93L, weakening it, and potentially converting it into a subtropical storm. The two storms may rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending the extratropical low west-southwestward into the Southeast U.S., and 93L northwestwards towards North Carolina. This is the solution of the 06Z (2 am EDT) GFDL and HWRF model runs, which both take 93L into New Jersey on Friday night as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict that 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the extratropical low. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. I don't have a good feel for what will happen in this complicated situation, but it currently appears that coastal North Carolina may get tropical storm force winds from the extratropical storm beginning as early as Wednesday night. Residents along the entire U.S. East Coast from Georgia to Maine should anticipate the possibility of a strong tropical tropical storm affecting them late this week.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Portugul's storm
An extratropical low pressure system off the coast of Portugal has gradually warmed its core over the past 2-3 days, as it has wandered over waters of 22-23°C. This storm had developed some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, but this has since gone away, justifying NHC's decision not to classify it as a subtropical depression. This morning's QuikSCAT pass saw top winds of 30 mph. The system should make landfall in southern Portugal this afternoon, bringing heavy sustained winds of 30-35 mph to the coast, but little heavy rain.

Tenth anniversary of Hurricane Georges
Residents of Puerto Rico and surrounding islands will remember that today is the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Georges. Georges' eye tracked along the entire length of the island as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane, carving an unprecedented trail of destruction. The hurricane's 110-115 mph winds, 10-foot storm surge, and rains of up to 30 inches caused over $2 billion in damage, making it the costliest disaster in Puerto Rico history. Power was lost to 96% of the island, and 28,000 homes destroyed. Remarkably, no one was killed on the island, thanks to early warnings and prompt evacuation efforts.


Figure 2. A bad day in the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Georges over the capital of Santo Domingo as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds on September 22, 1998. Georges killed 589 people in the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to flash flooding and mudslides.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
A group of wunderground bloggers have done some amazing work to gather, purchase, and deliver relief supplies to victims of Hurricane Ike. So far, the group (spearheaded by Presslord, StormJunkie, and Patrap) have raised over $12,000 and sent three truckloads of supplies, with another truck on the way, plus several air freight shipments. For photos of the effort, plus links to donate to the cause, visit stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters
More damage photos from Ike
More damage photos from Ike
Houston Yacht Club is a major sailing and powerboating club in the Houston area,,,there are at least 30-40 large boats on the lawn and in parking lots,,,most of the damage caused by failures to secure boats properly.....
Ike at Lake Conroe
Ike at Lake Conroe
This marina at Lake Conroe north of Houston was totally destroyed, includind some boats that were left there.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Been through Cut Off. Brother married a Cajun from Morgan City. Now lives in Lafayette. I lived in Houma for a year. Drove down La1 to Grand Isle several times. When I was there..75... That part of the state was supposed to have disappeared 10 years ago.

I find it interesting that it's now a medium chance. I'm sure PR wishes that meant something to them.
wasn't sure of the exact gestation age...was guesstimating from when I thought the baby was due...not too bad...said at least 30 wks and he was 31wks and a few days....every week makes a difference...so he will be 5 wks old tomorrow, that would put him at about 36 wks gestation... figuring they average a weight gain of about an ounce per day, that would put him coming home at about 38 wks gestation...bout average...glad to hear all is good though....=)
GFDL and HWRF (at the very long range) look to be wanting to create another worst case scenario with 93L..

Quoting SWFLgazer:
Been through Cut Off. Brother married a Cajun from Morgan City. Now lives in Lafayette. I lived in Houma for a year. Drove down La1 to Grand Isle several times. When I was there..75... That part of the state was supposed to have disappeared 10 years ago.



yeah, they tell us that on a daily basis!! We have a GREAT levee system that the Corps does not want to certify! Its getting hard to stay here, but if we do not stay here who will work the port in Fourchon to get the oil to the refineries?? We aren't going anywhere, this is a great community who helps themselves at all costs! We love it here, been here all my life. Back in 75 I was no where being thought of, I didn't come around until 77!! But here I am, and here I will stay!!!
Quoting angiest:
GFDL and HWRF (at the very long range) look to be wanting to create another worst case scenario with 93L..

How many hours out?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks.......So based on that (and the traditional Fall formation areas) I hope that shear will continue to rule in spite of favorable SST's.........


It certainly looks like Gray's prediction for September (I think 5 storms, 4 hurricanes and a couple majors) is going to fail miserably - can you believe that only one hurricane and a tropical storm have formed this month? Even last month was only "near average" according to the NHC (not that it means anything to those who got hit by storms, just as last year was "only" near average but had two Cat 5s make landfall).

Oddly though, shear hasn't actually been that high recently (last year was similar; perhaps these charts are wrong and it is actually higher):



Hurricajun...people do what they choose to do. Good luck.
hardest thing about 93L is that it IS still a LOW...untill the upper levels of it develop... stearing is fairly weak...hard to be pulled north due to a noreaster if the levels aren't there to stear it...IF it develops...then the stearing currents are stronger and the models would make sense...untill then...it is like watching grass grow or waiting for water to boil in this case...ok...no pun intended..=P
I believe it is time to go home and eat some boiled crabs, I just saw Michael's graphs and read it to say.... CRAB vertical shear instead of Carb!!! lol Maybe its just been a LONG few weeks!!!
Quoting Engine2:
How many hours out?


Looks to be the end of the 5 day plot. Obviously, they still don't have a lot to work with on this system but they are in quite good agreement on it.

Certainly way to out to make a meaningful call.
Angiest - thats what I figured (~120 hrs) - they are pretty much identical on track and intensity
There is a tendency here to wanna upgrade every blob in the basin that looks like a cyclone lol.Ive mentioned in previous post that without a circulation at the surface there is no TC.Even though the overall surface circulation looks a tad better today iam still not to impressed with this feature.

Looking at the 3-4 GFS 500mb wind forcast i see some signficant shear in the vicinity that could very well keep 93 in check and may even keep it from developing at all.Iam leaning towards something non-tropical of the coast.
Quoting hurricane23:
There is a tendency here to wanna upgrade every blob in the basin that looks like a cyclone lol.Ive mentioned in previous post that without a circulation at the surface there is no TC.Even though the overall surface circulation looks a tad better today iam still not to impressed with this feature.

Looking at the 3-4 GFS 500mb wind forcast i see some signficant shear in the vicinity that could very well keep 93 in check and may even keep it from developing at all.Iam leaning towards something non-tropical of the coast.


Why are you always so urgent to either call a Disturbance poof or fish? Not insulting you at all, just wondering.
Hey folks:
we need to hold Presslord's feet to the fire on his matching offer. Here's how to make sure he pays up.

...either send a check to : Portlight Strategies, Inc. 2043 Maybank Hwy. Charleston, SC 29412 put: "Ike matching" in the memo...or PayPal...and send me your real name so I can cross reference it to the account

presslord: WUmail

If we all cough up a little we can get him to pay up a lot. LOL $25 from you = $100 to the cause.

Quoting violet312s:
Here is the text of the matching charity offer. If someone could post this every 100 posts for the next day that would be hugely appreciated.

Now for me to go to bed. Thanks all! May Kyle swoop off into the maritimes and never impact land.

Suzanne

Announcing the "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE"

I will match Portlight contributions dollar for dollar* so we can fund another truck. Press will also match two dollars for every dollar donated*. Let's make another truck happen!!! We know there is a great need.

Portlight.org

*Yeah both Press and I have a matching limit that we'll keep to ourselves, but we're matching a good chunk of change and we can fill that truck if you match us!


Patrap and StormJunkie each have a quick link to Paypal on their site.
93L suffering from dmin later tonight dmax will be better unless interaction with hati/D.R. disrupts it organization which is more than likly and will have to reorganize after passage over the area
Quoting MichaelSTL:


It certainly looks like Gray's prediction for September (I think 5 storms, 4 hurricanes and a couple majors) is going to fail miserably - can you believe that only one hurricane and a tropical storm have formed this month? Even last month was only "near average" according to the NHC (not that it means anything to those who got hit by storms, just as last year was "only" near average but had two Cat 5s make landfall).

Oddly though, shear hasn't actually been that high recently (last year was similar; perhaps these charts are wrong and it is actually higher):





I know they can forecast the MJO oscillation. Wasn't it a little off from its forecast? It really helped with activity supression in September.
Quoting Engine2:
Angiest - thats what I figured (~120 hrs) - they are pretty much identical on track and intensity


How long does it take to evac Long Island? ;O
Engine2...my youngest one loves your avatar... he wants to be a fireman when he grows up... his G-pa is a retired FF...or as peewee says... he's a tired FF...LOL
37.9 knots (~ 43.6 mph)
Tropical Storm



All they gotta do is find a circulation, which appears to be happening,
Did you perhaps go to the blessing of the fleet in Morgan City over Labor Day weekend?

Models hint at one more Cape Verde type system soon. Otherwise, with lower pressures over the Caribbean i expect we could see 1-2 tropical cyclones developing in the region with some central Atlantic subtropical spinups.

3-4 named seems pretty fair.
Dang...just hit me...yesterday was 19th anniversary of Hugo...
524. Relix
Quoting CybrTeddy:
37.9 knots (~ 43.6 mph)
Tropical Storm



All they gotta do is find a circulation, which appears to be happening,


But which center are they focusing on? The naked DR one? South of PR? NE of PR? So confusing XD
Quoting hurricane23:
There is a tendency here to wanna upgrade every blob in the basin that looks like a cyclone lol.Ive mentioned in previous post that without a circulation at the surface there is no TC.Even though the overall surface circulation looks a tad better today iam still not to impressed with this feature.

Looking at the 3-4 GFS 500mb wind forcast i see some signficant shear in the vicinity that could very well keep 93 in check and may even keep it from developing at all.Iam leaning towards something non-tropical of the coast.
"Storm's" blog is quite impressive and dependable. We can rely on what he has to say about 93.
Now that most of the afternoon regulars are one - I have a new blog! I super excited about it so check it out! Share any ideas you might have. I'd love your input!
Prior to a strong COC:Can the Fugiwhara effect ever be considered within a single developing system when more than one circulation develops and break the storm apart?
Quoting angiest:


How long does it take to evac Long Island? ;O


Probably a month....worse case scenario would be the gdfl or the hwmf track....how long does it tak eto evacuate manhattan?
Angiest - The scary part is Long Island cannot be evacuated efficiently. Local government uses the Arc of decision system which by the time you know a storm is coming up to Long Island is to late to get it evacuated (The nature of storms accelerating up the coast). What the townships in Suffolk County have in place are mandatory evacuations away from the coastal areas. They use slosh models to predict how far inland could be affected and draw out evacuation zones from there. The worst of it all, is that most people on Long Island are very complacent when it comes to storms like this. Our last big hit was Gloria in 1985 which did a great deal of damage. However now coastal areas have become even more developed and untested which makes many pretty nervous. The barrier island that protects much of the Suffolk County bay front on the South Shore called Fire Island is getting destroyed each year with every Nor'Easter we encounter. When we are put in the cross hairs of a storm even for a couple of model runs, it makes local officials a bit nervous.
If you read this analysis,it sounds like they think the extratopical low will absorb the tropical system and head up to the northeast,but that said they don't sound to confident.



EAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE TROPICAL LOW NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
THE COASTAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE/NOREASTER REMAINS A BIG QUESTION
MARK. NEW POINTS COORDINATED WITH NHC AT NOON SPED UP THE
TROPICAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSION SLIGHTLY...BUT RECURVATURE REMAINS
SLOWER THAN SEEN ON THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AT THE TIME OF
THIS DISCUSSIONS ISSUANCE. THE SPREAD SEEN IN THE VARIOUS 00Z
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SURFACE LOWS SHOW TWO CAMPS...WITH ONE FAVORING
THE BAROCLINIC CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST...AND THE OTHER
FAVORING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE STRUGGLE FOR
DOMINANCE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD SEEN AMONGST THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE CONCERNING BOTH CYCLONES
AS WELL AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BROADENED/DEEPENED THE PRESSURE
PATTERN OF THE COMBINED LOW PRESSURE AREA A BIT MORE THAN SEEN ON
THE EARLIER PROGS FOR SUNDAY...WHICH LOWERS PRESSURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN/NAM ARE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP/TOO
FAR INLAND WITH THE COASTAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...THE RESULTANT CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY SUNDAY
MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT LYING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC
CYCLONE...WHICH DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD COVERS COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AND POTENTIALLY THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:


I know they can forecast the MJO oscillation. Wasn't it a little off from its forecast? It really helped with activity supression in September.


I haven't seen forecasts for the MJO that go more than a couple weeks out however, so it isn't like they can predict it months in advance; it also doesn't have a regular period (anywhere from 30-60 days).
93L is headed for Florida and will hit as a cat2.No doubt about that.
Quoting violet312s:
Here is the text of the matching charity offer. If someone could post this every 100 posts for the next day that would be hugely appreciated.

Now for me to go to bed. Thanks all! May Kyle swoop off into the maritimes and never impact land.

Suzanne

Announcing the "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE"

I will match Portlight contributions dollar for dollar* so we can fund another truck. Press will also match two dollars for every dollar donated*. Let's make another truck happen!!! We know there is a great need.

Portlight.org

*Yeah both Press and I have a matching limit that we'll keep to ourselves, but we're matching a good chunk of change and we can fill that truck if you match us
!
Quoting Relix:


But which center are they focusing on? The naked DR one? South of PR? NE of PR? So confusing XD
really dont matter till entire disturbance is n of islands H./D.R just east of the spin of the bahamiam islands
Currently, they are calling for an enhanced potential for development over the Caribbean in the next two weeks.
Quoting SWFLgazer:
Did you perhaps go to the blessing of the fleet in Morgan City over Labor Day weekend?


No, we did not make it. We are still working on the damages to our houses. Hopefully we can finish the damages soon, and get back to normal that way we can start going to the events we are used to going through.
Quoting Alexking:
93L is headed for Florida and will hit as a cat2.No doubt about that.
i don't think so
ShenValley....Thanks for posting the matching challenge. Appreciated.

First time I've been online today. Any word from Press on how much has been donated thus far?
Lowest pressure so far off the S coast near 18N
Quoting theshepherd:
Can the Fugiwhara effect ever be considered within a single system when more than one circulation develops and break the storm apart?


Not an expert, but for the Fujiwhara effect to happen I believe each system has to have a well defined COC. Unless I've missed sonething, none of the potential vorticies of 93L are well defined.
Thanks for the comments and info with regard to the rest of the season; we know that anything can happen in October & November but September is coming to a close soon and I'm just beginning to wonder if we will actually make the average prediction of 14-18 storms this season.....It could "shut down" so to speak even through July into September were really busy and leave us in the low end of an above average season when all is said and done come the next two months.......Only time will tell but I don't think that 93L will be the next one from the looks of it right now...
Quoting plylox:
"Storm's" blog is quite impressive and dependable. We can rely on what he has to say about 93.

Ummm so is the information at the National Hurricane center.
Sorry -- I'm not believing 93L going north until I see it. I believe Ike was supposed to do the same thing.. and look what happened.

CDL
Disregarding 93L. Just as a hypothesis in general.
CybrTeddy my Post was in regards to the GFS 500mb forcast which is not looking to favorable for significant development.

532. Alexking 07:30 PM GMT op 22 September, 2008
93L is headed for Florida and will hit as a cat2.No doubt about that.

What??

There is nothing in any level to steer 93L towards florida.

This blog is amazing.



Quoting kmanislander:
Lowest pressure so far off the S coast near 18N


And the strongest winds thus far.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I haven't seen forecasts for the MJO that go more than a couple weeks out however, so it isn't like they can predict it months in advance; it also doesn't have a regular period (anywhere from 30-60 days).


Thanks Michael. I wasn't aware of how far out they could forecast it. The MJO definitely took the wind of the tropics sails for September, though. Thank goodness!
Personally, I believe the latter half of this season that Home grown threat's will be of concern. I'd watch this disturbance in the GOMEX, looks like to have cut off from the trof.
Quoting hurricane23:
CybrTeddy my Post was in regards to the GFS 500mb forcast which is not looking to favorable for significant development.

532. Alexking 07:30 PM GMT op 22 September, 2008
93L is headed for Florida and will hit as a cat2.No doubt about that.

What??

There is nothing in any level to steer 93L towards florida.

This blog is amazing.





Agreed, just ignore Alex, he's being a troll.
So the COC could relocated to the south of DR?
552. Vero1
.
553. Vero1
You Mean something like this?

Friday Sept 26, 2008




Saturday Sept 27, 2008

Quoting usa777:

Ummm so is the informations at the National Hurricane center.


StormW makes it very easy to understand for us newbies though and is available for questions. :)
cata...read your blog...pretty good...I didn't see babywipes on your list...might have missed em but if I didn't...they are great for bathing EVERYONE...some of em even smell pretty good and they don't expire. You could also add that if using the 5 gal buckets that your local doughnut shop (dunkin or krispy kreme) will either give them to you or sell them for like a buck or two...just wash em out and they have lids that seal...cheaper than home depot!
Quoting fmbill:


And the strongest winds thus far.


Lots of West winds now off the S coast. Looks like 93L is heading W just on the S coast of the DR near 18N 69W
Quoting Relix:


But which center are they focusing on? The naked DR one? South of PR? NE of PR? So confusing XD


It would appear then that 93L is Schizophrenic, and kinda sick when looking at Satellite.

As such it needs to go to a Psychiatrist or Psychologist.:P

In all seriousness though, I think I have heard of storms that are classified as having more than one center (1998 Earl I think?) Why not classify this one?

Also, how is the disturbance by Europe doing, and what about the little..thing in the gulf.
554.

AND StormW gives you the scenerios not discussed by the NHC...due to model guidance...
ok...bouncin out for a bit...should be cleaning my house...LOL
Quoting HrDelta:


It would appear then that 93L is Schizophrenic, and kinda sick when looking at Satellite.

As such it needs to go to a Psychiatrist or Psychologist.:P

In all seriousness though, I think I have heard of storms that are classified as having more than one center (1998 Earl I think?) Why not classify this one?

Also, how is the disturbance by Europe doing, and what about the little..thing in the gulf.


Funny how yesterday 93L looked so well organized on sat but had a poor struture, were as today almost the opposite is true, Convection structure isn't as good, but the Structure of the system has drastically approved.
Quoting Nocturnal37:


StormW makes it very easy to understand for us newbies though and is available for questions. :)


Very True. Though you can almost always understand what the NHC is saying, you really can't ask them question or e-mail them and expect an answer immediately, in any time in the 1-2 range.
562. JRRP
the center is clear 69w 19n
Link
Quoting violet312s:
ShenValley....Thanks for posting the matching challenge. Appreciated.

First time I've been online today. Any word from Press on how much has been donated thus far?


Haven't seen any numbers from press today. Hope we're keeping him too busy keeping up with his match to do anything else.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
cata...read your blog...pretty good...I didn't see babywipes on your list...might have missed em but if I didn't...they are great for bathing EVERYONE...some of em even smell pretty good and they don't expire. You could also add that if using the 5 gal buckets that your local doughnut shop (dunkin or krispy kreme) will either give them to you or sell them for like a buck or two...just wash em out and they have lids that seal...cheaper than home depot!


Tigger, great idea on the buckets. Wet wipes are on month four. With seven kids you know I can't forget those :o)
532. Alexking
Click
Quoting Nocturnal37:


StormW makes it very easy to understand for us newbies though and is available for questions. :)


There's no dought StormW does an excellent job.
I always look forward to reading his updates.
Quoting 19N81W:


Have a look at the se area of convection on the latest 93l visible...look at the low level clouds being drawn in...


Yes and itl looks likd the center is boiling with very high cloud tops.

Out for the rest of the day and will see what changes by the AM.
Center off the SW Coast of DR? Humm
Quoting kmanislander:


Lots of West winds now off the S coast. Looks like 93L is heading W just on the S coast of the DR near 18N 69W


That ought to put the forecasters in a head-lock :-)
hey all...literally been on the phone since 7A with this....on the positive side, we've had a nice response to our Truck Challenge"....will look at things in a bit and let y'all know exactly....we had a Company (Hill-Rom) donate 100 mattresses for the folks in Bridge City TX....many of whom are in sleeping bags in tents....WalMart is gonna ship 'em for us....wife and SJ are doing needs assessment in Galveston and Bolivar Penninsula today....will get detailed updates from them likely this evening....not gonna bug 'em right now....
Vis loop still suggests a mean center near 18.5N 69W but I do not know if the aircraft can investigate those coordinates as they are inland due N from the area of lowest pressure so far ( 1008.2 mb )
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


There's no dought StormW does an excellent job.
I always look forward to reading his updates.


how do I get to his blog?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Center off the SW Coast of DR? Humm


Area of lowest pressure found so far is just S of the SE coast of the DR by about 20 miles or so near 18N 69W.
SW is a good friend of mine but with all due respect he is not the only knowledgeable person in this blog.
The center of 93L appears to be between El Seibo and Samana. ie...Moving into the Bay of Samana.Link
I think the COC is probably reforming just South of 18N
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Funny how yesterday 93L looked so well organized on sat but had a poor struture, were as today almost the opposite is true, Convection structure isn't as good, but the Structure of the system has drastically approved.


If it wasn't for P.R. and D.R. we would well formed tropical system by now.
Once 93L gets back over open water it sho
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Center off the SW Coast of DR? Humm


Looks to be right over D.R. to me.
There finding lots of west winds
Click on "gusts"...it shows a 35kt wind gust on the coast.

Link
Quoting RayRayfromLa:


how do I get to his blog?


top of the page click on wunderblogs and then he is one of the featured bloggers
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks for the comments and info with regard to the rest of the season; we know that anything can happen in October & November but September is coming to a close soon and I'm just beginning to wonder if we will actually make the average prediction of 14-18 storms this season.....It could "shut down" so to speak even through July into September were really busy and leave us in the low end of an above average season when all is said and done come the next two months.......Only time will tell but I don't think that 93L will be the next one from the looks of it right now...
yeah we could also have 5 storms pop up in the next 7 days too
18.000N 69.650W

looks like the center
New 18 Z Spag Plot

Link
Thanks to Penske Trucks for the Generous Local Offer for the Relief Effort.

If in NOLA or Points in the metro area,contact me via wu-mail for Pick up or Dropping off here.
Or contact me at pjp1201@yahoo.com

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portlight.org Link
Uh oh...LV winds at 18.0 69.6
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Center off the SW Coast of DR? Humm


LMAO!!! That will be real something if its there... that the first place were we have finally seen N winds.
Quoting Nocturnal37:


StormW makes it very easy to understand for us newbies though and is available for questions. :)
Yeah he does a great job on his blog.
Quoting WxLogic:


LMAO!!! That will be real something if its there... that the first place were we have finally seen N winds.


So much for N to NNW !

93L is pulling a " Fay " move
looks like a center south or DR.
590. 7544
Quoting kmanislander:


So much for N to NNW !

93L is pulling a " Fay " move


bingo
Doupt that will happen Kman.
Quoting kmanislander:


So much for N to NNW !

93L is pulling a " Fay " move
No, we finally dried out. We want a POOF!
He want get as far west as Fay
TCFA doesn't include the recent possible center location.

Link
Ok seriously....whats up with the storms this year.
Looking at Hi-res visible imagery the low level circulation appears to be exposed.Could be classfied this afternoon.
Quoting hurricane23:
Doupt that will happen Kman.
always expect the unexpected
598. 7544
i know its not a model but it looks like 93l might take the xtrap track just like fay did imo
Another way to get to people's blogs is click on their handle. If you clicked on Skyepony up there in blue it will wisk you off to a page full of satalite views, models & charts that self update..lotta east central FL specific info as well as a world view there. Hurricane23 has a good point (& a good blog:) lotta peeps on here with good info.
Quoting hcatsailer2008:


This is what most do not understand about FEMA's role in disaster recovery. They provide ASISTANCE to the State and Local recovery efforts. If an area has not been assisted, it is NOT the fault of the Federal government, it is the fault of the State and Local government for not addressing that recovery need. It's probably more at the State level and small town mayors are begging for help.

FEMA is not a genie, it can't wish another 100 bull dozers to magically appear. The resources FEMA has prepositioned must be managed by the State, not all allocated to one area.



I am not arguing the points you raised; however, I think there are still some open issues such as to whether the State did not make the necessary arrangements with FEMA so FEMA was not there to supply the assistance OR whether the State did make the arrangements with FEMA and FEMA did not meet their obligations.

Some of the things I read about the situation in Houston indicate that pre-planning was not done at the State and/or local level for the Points of Delivery. In the end, I believe Houston wound up working directly with FEMA.

However, with both Katrina and Ike, we have seen State officials asking [to the effect of] "where's FEMA?'

Given this it would appear that either there are major problems with the States understanding what they must do in order to have FEMA there [to provide assistance] or FEMA is not meeting its obligation.

Once the Governor of the State asks for FEMA assistance, there should be flow-chart discussions in which it is clarified which organization is responsible for what aspects of the effort. I am wondering if this happening to the degree it should. Since individual States are not likely to be repeatedly involved in National Disaster Area issues (in a short period of time so that the same employees are involved), it would be in the best interest of everyone if FEMA make sure the State people know who is responsible for what.--if for no other reason than to protect itself from allegations that it did not accomplish its mission.

Also, a few days back, it was posted that FEMA was not responsible for providing meals, etc, for first responders for the first 72 hours after deployment. If anyone has the regulatory and/or statutory basis for this, will you please provide a citation so I can read it. Thanks!
Quoting hurricane23:
Looking at Hi-res visible imagery the low level circulation appears to be exposed.Could be classfied this afternoon.


You say Low Level circulation, I guess it has one now as clearly seen on Visible's.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
always expect the unexpected
I think that is the offical Motto of this season!
Quoting alaina1085:
Ok seriously....whats up with the storms this year.
2008 rules may not apply
Classification seems reasonable this afteroon based on the latest recon reports.
Quoting hurricane23:
Doupt that will happen Kman.


Really ?. Look at what the HH is finding. The only way to get the winds and pressure readings they have found is for 93L to have tracked due W along the S half of the DR. Not saying it will follow the path Fay took exactly but that is where it is now, give or take .2 or.3 of degree.

With W winds at 18N the " center " would be a little N of that, possibly around 18.3 to 18.5N
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You say Low Level circulation, I guess it has one now as clearly seen on Visible's.
Link please - TIA
my bad half is in samana bay and he says it is fairly calm but raining cats and dogs (DR)
Guys the storm has to hit the DR every other storm has hit this area recently
I just dont see Kman with the present flow.Based on my view theres very little chance this get close to florida.
Quoting Engine2:
Link please - TIA

Link
Quoting kmanislander:


Really ?. Look at what the HH is finding. The only way to get the winds and pressure readings they have found is for 93L to have tracked due W along the S half of the DR. Not saying it will follow the path Fay took exactly but that is where it is now, give or take .2 or.3 of degree.

With W winds at 18N the " center " would be a little N of that, possibly around 18.3 to 18.5N
18.4n/69.1w
kman that may be why the NHC downgraded it from red to orange---they may think there is a stronger possibility that the mountains of Hispaniola may kill it.
has HH sent a vortex yet?
The 18Z NAM is shifting to the west.

Link
Nice view HERE at the circulation.
Quoting hurricane23:
I just dont see Kman with the present flow.Based on my view theres very little chance this get close to florida.


I was not looking that far down the line but to Haiti and the NW Caribbean would be on the cards if the center is where I think it is.
I hope... they check the TS cluster further south... hoping they're also having a nagging feeling of what could be down there.
They mountains would likely stop it from developing in the next 48 hours although I doubt that will happen. At times I doubted if it would develop but it did.
Quoting kmanislander:


So much for N to NNW !

93L is pulling a " Fay " move


Been reminding me of Fay all morning.
Wierd storm. Still looks like multiple vortices.
nam has somthing also heading towards Fla from the west.
Watching nowcoast as well as recon. Nowcoast is like watching buoys & ships all plotted out with the satalite view.
select Atlantic tropical region for location & GOES IR under information. click go. Zoom in on the storm (bottm left) & select wind on the right. West winds are clear at the west edge of DR & PR. With the fresh blow up there on the west side of DR & the general flow of the lower clouds I can see why the hunters are over there. Another nice feature of nowcoast is you can leave it open in a window & it will refresh by itself whenever conditions change.
So, now is the consensus that 93L is beginning to show real organization.
624. Prgal
Its official, we have received up until now 30 inches of rain.
Today @11;44 EDT the autumn equinox began / the start of Celestial Fall. Day and night are at roughly equal length and slowly it will get dark earlier and stay dark longer. Why did summer go by so fast?

Already noticed that the horses have begun to shed their summer coats. Contrary to what most people think, the horses coat is regulated by light --not temp., Also our chickens have begun molting and egg production is down slightly till they adjust.
Quoting Prgal:
Its official, we have received up until now 30 inches of rain.
That's horrible. Hopefully it is slowing.
Steering

Link
The NAM is garbage.
Quoting Prgal:
Its official, we have received up until now 30 inches of rain.


Wow... is that officially from NHC... or from a Rain Gauge you have? Not saying your rain gauge is wrong but just wondering.
Quoting CoopNTexas:
The NAM is garbage.


Hey hey... take it easy!!! Not always. :)
Adrian do you still believe the GFDL has the best handle on 93L?
if the NAM is garbage you might as well throw in the GFDL, HWRF too since this system has not been moving due North.
631. sporteguy03

none are good until they inatiliaze the correct center
Quoting kmanislander:
Steering

Link


The high providing that Westerly movement became a bit more stronger so I still expect this system to keep moving W and if its to reform that it will do it S where there's less shear... imo
brb updating my blog
Blog Updated :)
Quoting kmanislander:
Steering

Link


I wonder how long the steering currents will stay that way. If the center stays south of DR, it may not get picked up by the effects of the low off the Carolinas.
Quoting Prgal:
Its official, we have received up until now 30 inches of rain.
Water wings on the way.... Be safe ya'll!
Quoting will40:
631. sporteguy03

none are good until they inatiliaze the correct center


I agree, but it is not moving North as the models indicate.
641. unf97
93L continues to have a difficult time consolidating into one central center of circulation. This was a process in which I thought was happening yesterday, but it didn't happen.This is how these systems have behaved for the most part all season long it seems. We simply just have to see if 93L will stay intact after lashing the islands and also see if the system finally makes a move north. Who knows what this invest does at this point? This movement to the north just has not materialized to this point. Meanwhile, keep a watch on the activity which has flared up considerably today in the Bay of Campeche. That area may have some potential to develop later this week IMO.
I am at work, hungry to see the Recon Data for 93L, Orca.
640. sporteguy03

thats the reason that they are no good right now
Quoting unf97:
93L continues to have a difficult time consolidating into one central center of circulation. This was a process in which I thought was happening yesterday, but it didn't happen.This is how these systems have behaved for the most part all season long it seems. We simply just have to see if 93L will stay intact after lashing the islands and also see if the system finally makes a move north. Who knows what this invest does at this point? This movement to the north just has not materialized to this point. Meanwhile, keep a watch on the activity which has flared up considerably today in the Bay of Campeche. That area may have some potential to develop later this week IMO.
Live near a bayou that empties into Galveston Bay. Notice the tide is running abnormally high as of this morning. Could this be from what you are referring to in the BOC or is something else going on in the GOM? No weather wizard here so be patient with me.
Quoting will40:
640. sporteguy03

thats the reason that they are no good right now


The steering charts also do not match up well either that Kman posted.
Quoting fmbill:
Wierd storm. Still looks like multiple vortices.


I'm with you. I feel like just tossing everything I thought I "knew" about tropical systems out the window. It's almost like one midlevel "center" is giving birth to another further S and E. Yes, I can see circulation, but my thought is nothing has been established on the surface with the exception of the bigger, broader area with fairly consistent pressures
Very broad area of 1008 & 1009mb.
I'm not so sure of a classification coming out of this flight without quick organization. West wind yes, but broad low, multible vorticies, pressure 1008.2mb...
They're in the center now, 1009 MB pressure's.
Winds have just shifted from the SSW to the SE.
I think Kyle has been born seeing that they were finding 50 MPH winds in the convection.
Almost seems a little tilted as well
I know a lot of people are thinking this or asking it, but is there any chance of a second LLC forming under that very serious blob of convection well south of DR/PR? On water vapor it looks like that's where 93L is, not on the east point of Hispanolia.

I guess my question is, could this split into two different TD's? Have any of our more experienced and learned members seen a set-up like this, this far west, split into two storms?

Jo
For now, I'm throwing out all the computer models as there is no defined center AND the current steering currents don't match with the models.

What does SE winds indicate?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Very broad area of 1008 & 1009mb.


1009s on the N coast side of the DR and 1008.2 on the S side. Center somewhere in between ?
Quoting Vortex95:
What does SE winds indicate?


A Surface circulation.
What is with the SE winds east of the presumed center located south of DR?

As the plane travel from east to west, it found SE winds, then L/V winds with the lowest pressure reading, then a few barbs of NW winds, then some more L/V winds, but then SE winds again???
So no Kyle, at 5 PM.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
For now, I'm throwing out all the computer models as there is no defined center AND the current steering currents don't match with the models.



Definitely...
a TD? maybe at 5 if not 8 or 11. who knows.
Yep, defiantly a Surface Circulation, winds have just shifted South and South West on the Southern side of the COC.
Quoting Vortex95:
a TD? maybe at 5 if not 8 or 11. who knows.


Nope, 50 MPH SFMR readings, TS maybe at 5.
If COC is where is its and sterring currents hold ture wouldn't Florida be in its horizon?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
For now, I'm throwing out all the computer models as there is no defined center AND the current steering currents don't match with the models.



Indeed CCHS, this is a complex scenario which leaves me baffled.

I do not think this system will develop into a vigorous tropical cyclone since it is heading over land. Furthermore, thunderstorm activity seems to be increasing at the side. If the dominant circulation weakens adequately, a low may form beneath the convection mass to the south and become the dominant cyclone.


If this happens........Big shift in the track.

It will likely bypass the carolina low
Quoting cchsweatherman:
For now, I'm throwing out all the computer models as there is no defined center AND the current steering currents don't match with the models.



I'm tired of seeing people say there is no difined center just because it's not in the caribbean where they want it to be (been gone not saying you're one of those people but everyone earlier was.). There is a difined center over the eastern tip of hispanola. It's been there all day slowly drifting wnw. This afternoon convection has even started developing around it. (The north blob not the blob everyone seems so dang determied to wishcast into development.)

Rant over.
Was Fay in Orange or Red? when it Formed?

Also if it does form over DR would it be the first time since naming began 2 systems were named over land?
#625 surfmom
Hey, do you do anything to control the ponies's winter coats
Quoting Vortex95:
Was Fay in Orange or Red? when it Formed?

Also if it does form over DR would it be the first time since naming began 2 systems were named over land?


Please do not mention FAY

That tropical cyclone defied all my forecasts.
Still lurking seems to be some action at 47w 24n. looks like depression to me but most likely a fish. Also notice all the activity at 8n and 45w this maybe last big threat from Africa this year.
Quoting kmanislander:


1009s on the N coast side of the DR and 1008.2 on the S side. Center somewhere in between ?


If I had to guess 18.4N 68.9W Inland, heading a tad N of due west.
670. 7544
hmm maybe td at 5 track is up here

Link dosent work its on the navy site lol
OK. I'm just not seeing the center south of DR.
I'm seeing the southern edge of the center right about El Seibo, the actual 'center' of circulation on the coast due north of El Seibo, west edge open to the west.
If it keeps on current track the center should follow the N. DR coast into the Bay of Samana.

Zoom in D.R. RADAR. Click on orange arrow for motion. Link

D.R. Map including El Seibo and Samana. Link
With a new appreciation for all Orca does..

Don't let classification fool you into thinking 93L has its act together when it doesn't. It's as ogranized as a Tupperware party. Lots of cool stuff, but ad hoc actually.

Link
lol 7544 maybe a link where link is will helo :P.
Everyone wave back to the GOM. It's "waving" at us.

Link
The Navy site is still calling it 93L. Usually they change the name just before an upgrade by the NHC.
Quoting Vortex95:
If COC is where is its and sterring currents hold ture wouldn't Florida be in its horizon?


You know what dont wory its not going to hit us...


back to my 7 hour high school homework pile...

Remember what I said a wk ago 93l might end up being a Haiti problem. Trends in the tropics is everything. Notice the big typhoon is moving west in the west pac.
679. Relix
I really hope the HH check the T-storms south of PR, that's where I put the center at. Unless it has two... which definitely throws any forecast out of the window and my knowledge on storms.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I'm tired of seeing people say there is no difined center just because it's not in the caribbean where they want it to be (been gone not saying you're one of those people but everyone earlier was.). There is a difined center over the eastern tip of hispanola. It's been there all day slowly drifting wnw. This afternoon convection has even started developing around it. (The north blob not the blob everyone seems so dang determied to wishcast into development.)

Rant over.


Could you then explain something to me? If there was a defined circulation center, as you claim there exists, why hasn't there been a Vortex data message?
Quoting fmbill:
The Navy site is still calling it 93L. Usually they change the name just before an upgrade by the NHC.


Sometimes...Not always.
682. 7544
Quoting Vortex95:
lol 7544 maybe a link where link is will helo :P.


Link

copy and past wu links not working

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=09&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=93L.INVEST&PROD =track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlan tic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi

youll see the track here
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME


Quoting gordydunnot:
Still lurking seems to be some action at 47w 24n. looks like depression to me but most likely a fish. Also notice all the activity at 8n and 45w this maybe last big threat from Africa this year.


47W 24N is an ULL.
Quoting Tejano72:
Everyone wave back to the GOM. It's "waving" at us.

Link
What does that mean? I asked a question earlier that went unnoticed. The tide is abnormally high in the bayou near my house that empties into Galveston Bay. I asked if anything was going on in the BOC or GOM. Thanks for any info>
Quoting 7544:


Link


ROFL
Quoting Elena85Vet:
OK. I'm just not seeing the center south of DR.
I'm seeing the southern edge of the center right about El Seibo, the actual 'center' of circulation on the coast due north of El Seibo, west edge open to the west.
If it keeps on current track the center should follow the N. DR coast into the Bay of Samana.

Zoom in D.R. RADAR. Click on orange arrow for motion. Link

D.R. Map including El Seibo and Samana. Link


Well like I mentioned before and another person too yesterday... with these type of systems you don't want to rely on Radar fixes as we're not dealing with a defined systems yet and you could be looking a vortices. Not saying that Radar is not good, but like everything it has it place on the appropriate time.

HH and SFC data fixes are best to get a clue on where a system could be.
Quoting Relix:
I really hope the HH check the T-storms south of PR, that's where I put the center at. Unless it has two... which definitely throws any forecast out of the window and my knowledge on storms.


That is somewhat possible relix.

However, the cyclone located at the eastern tip of Hispaniola is currently the dominant one. Nevertheless, its development will likely be stifled due to interaction with land. If it weakens sufficiently, the convection mass south of Puerto Rico will likely develop into the new dominant cyclone.
back also i just updated my blog so take a look what i said about 93L :)
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I'm tired of seeing people say there is no difined center just because it's not in the caribbean where they want it to be (been gone not saying you're one of those people but everyone earlier was.). There is a difined center over the eastern tip of hispanola. It's been there all day slowly drifting wnw. This afternoon convection has even started developing around it. (The north blob not the blob everyone seems so dang determied to wishcast into development.)

Rant over.



we've been watching it all afternoon,and there's still a debate???? there is a large area of low pressure over the eastern tip of D.R.,debate over!!!!!
please lets not mention Haiti. They have suffered enough. I hate to think that WHILE the US is sending aid there, that another storm wanders in.
Well, finialy a Surface low, just some more convection is all it needs.
WOW, the convection mass seems to be detaching itself from the dominant cyclone at the eastern tip of Hispaniola.

THIS IS WAR!
Look at the visible loop from nhc its obvious that any low to mid-level circulations are all being strongly push to the west while mid to upper circulation is being pushed ne, hard for this puppy to get vertically stacted. Not to mention hispanola in the way.
My guess the vortex just north of DR is taking over. Looks like it is getting stronger. Good luck everyone affected.
td 11 at 11pm tonite
To All Bloggers: Remember this. This season has been an abnormal one. Storms have done what they were not supposed to do, and have lasted abnormal amounts of time. Lets not wishcast or farcast where this is going to go. This storm could prove extremely deadly yet again for the caribbean. They said at the beginning of the season, that there was an above average chance for landfall in the Carib.
I've asked before, but question got overlooked. Except in embedded T-storms, why is there seldom lighting and thunder during a hurricane? It's hard to explain to relatives inland that a hurricane isn't like one big t-storm.

Hope one of you experts will be able to answer my question this time. Thanks-
692. CybrTeddy not closed yet
Quoting Skyepony:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME


Sounds likely we'll see it named in the near future.
Not wishcasting at all, Hurricane King. But as futuremet said, the current COC that you're mentioning will soon be trying to strengthen over the mountains, and that southern blob is very vigorous and long-lasting, and is maybe looking for it's own LLC.

Can you categorically state that it won't get it? If not, then don't call it wish-casting... it's wondering about a potential situation. Labelling is easy, but that doesn't necessarily make it right.

And is there any real chance of all that, um... agitation off the coast near Brownsville, TX developing into something? It's very persistent, too.

Finally, my prayers to those of you in PR, and my hopes that the rain there ends soonest. :-(

Jo
Quoting will40:
692. CybrTeddy not closed yet


Its closed now via Data from the HH's.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
please lets not mention Haiti. They have suffered enough. I hate to think that WHILE the US is sending aid there, that another storm wanders in.


That is a possibly however.

I personally do not think the damage will be as substantial as the previous tropical cyclones.


....I am Haitian

Moved here in 2001
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


Yea, what I said. Just North of El Seibo.
Quoting will40:
692. CybrTeddy not closed yet

please read post # 683
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Could you then explain something to me? If there was a defined circulation center, as you claim there exists, why hasn't there been a Vortex data message?



sorry to but in,the LLC has been over land all afternoon and the HH's don't fly over D.R.,atleast they haven't yet!!!,hope that helps...
nope they didnt send a vortex message
709. Relix
Quoting futuremet:


That is somewhat possible relix.

However, the cyclone located at the eastern tip of Hispaniola is currently the dominant one. Nevertheless, its development will likely be stifled due to interaction with land. If it weakens sufficiently, the convection mass south of Puerto Rico will likely develop into the new dominant cyclone.


Thanks for the awesome explanation =). I didn't think it was possible to have a dominant center and one that seems stronger convection-wise. Just gonna hold out, but I think that PR is yet to receive worse rains since that blob of convection to the south still hasn't gotten here. Darn =/. They are calling this "Historic Flooding" on some parts.
Good Afternoon, all.

I have finally uploaded a couple pictures from the neighborhoods.

Still dealing with sleepless nights.. but it's getting better. Hoping nothing else develops.. or goes far far away.
706. btwntx08

says Broad not closed
Pretty good consensus on a general movement of to the North.18z early sophisticated models.

Quoting will40:
nope they didnt send a vortex message


Center is inland
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well, finialy a Surface low, just some more convection is all it needs.
later tonight at dmax but then it will be over land may have to wait till this time tommorow
Quoting will40:
nope they didnt send a vortex message

ugh read the statement from the hh
716. Relix
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Center is inland


I think that center may die due to the land =/
715. btwntx08

im not gonna argue with ya . No vortex massage no closed low
Hey, what direction is 93L moving right now?

W, WNW, N, NW, NNW?

I need to know.

Knowing this is a momentous necessity for efficient forecasting
Quoting Relix:


I think that center may die due to the land =/
it won't die but it could get messed up
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Could you then explain something to me? If there was a defined circulation center, as you claim there exists, why hasn't there been a Vortex data message?


Sigh because they're not sure if it's not going to poof out over Hispanola. They only issue them when they can pass through it and the Hhuters think it should be named. They cant get to it on land so it's up to the NHC who dont want to name it yet.
again read this will40
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED
Once the trough digs across the east coast of the US, 93 will be shunted out to sea. Its just a matter of time now.
They have had that same concensus for a while now and have been expected a northward movement since it was over PR dunno if it will happen but if it doesn't happen soon the mid Atlantic states could be at risk if it goes later.
Quoting theshepherd:
Prior to a strong COC:Can the Fugiwhara effect ever be considered within a single developing system when more than one circulation develops and break the storm apart?
In closing I bet 8n 47w will be bigger problem. That being said everyone on the se to ne coast of usa look out for 93l.
Quoting Relix:


I think that center may die due to the land =/


Considering it's been over land all day and is getting better defined.........




NO.
Seeing it getting stronger no doubt with those models we are talking headline news
Quoting hurricane23:
Pretty good consensus on a general movement of to the North.18z early sophisticated models.



It will quite plausible scenerio... if the steering currents were there to support such a sharp northward movement. If it would have been stronger I would have tend to agree.

Guess we'll see later tonight when the new steering flow maps come in to see if the high to its N will start weakening.
i argee with teddy about the center being closed
Quoting will40:
715. btwntx08

im not gonna argue with ya . No vortex massage no closed low


All due respect but, It may or may not be closed. They can't sample an LLC that is inland. Not sure if they have any land based obs available to them.
Quoting will40:
706. btwntx08

says Broad not closed


Yes. Open to the west.
A very serious situation in Yauco at SW there is no road way to reach in the flood area, have already 2 death and 216 people in shelter in the SE Yabucoa and Patillas. 24 hrs rain record was broke by 93L here in PR with an amaizing 25 inches of rain in the SE part of the island. Record previously held by the "Mamelles Rains that cause more than 200 death in Ponce twenty years ago. PR Goverment evaluating to declare a state of emergency.
its going to be interesting to say the least,what happens with the low that is suppose to form of the coast,that may or may not being a player with what happens with 93L
732. Elena85Vet

ty
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Yes. Open to the west.

nope its closed but inland
738. unf97
644. allboardedup. That area has had convection flare up off and on the past couple of days. Right now, it is an area I am saying to just watch and take note for the next few days. Convection has again flared again in the BOC, and if convection can persist for a sustained period in that region, it may have a chance to possibly spin up a low pressure area. We are getting into the late Sept, October period of hurricane season where areas like the Bay of Campeche and the Caribbean are notably the prime areas for development.
on the other note the hh found alots of west winds that tells u its closed
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Good Afternoon, all.

I have finally uploaded a couple pictures from the neighborhoods.

Still dealing with sleepless nights.. but it's getting better. Hoping nothing else develops.. or goes far far away.


tx, thank you so much for sharing those pictures. I hope you can start sleeping soon!
Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

Have to wait for the next recon to get there tomorrow.
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Good Afternoon, all.

I have finally uploaded a couple pictures from the neighborhoods.

Still dealing with sleepless nights.. but it's getting better. Hoping nothing else develops.. or goes far far away.
TX you all take care...amazing photos.
Quoting futuremet:
Hey, what direction is 93L moving right now?

W, WNW, N, NW, NNW?

I need to know.

Knowing this is a momentous necessity for efficient forecasting


Your guess is as good as any as you should know by now... we have no idea, it all depends on which center prevails
Well... look here... seems they're going to investigate the TS cluster down south. Great!!! Let's hope that is what they're planning on doing hehe...
VERY EVIDENT PICTURE


NOW EVERYONE LOOK AT THIS


TWO SUBSTANTIAL VORTICES WITHIN 93L
LOL!!! Never mind... they just concluded!!!
Quoting futuremet:
18Z NAM


Normally I wouldn't use the NAM to track a tropical system but I think since it's doing better with the nor easter than the GFS (GFS leaves it and open trough) then its got the righ idea. Maybe a little to strong with the nor easter.
two but the other one is nowhere near the convection.
Quoting btwntx08:
on the other note the hh found alots of west winds that tells u its closed
upper level west winds
Quoting futuremet:
VERY EVIDENT PICTURE


NOW EVERYONE LOOK AT THIS


TWO SUBSTANTIAL VORTICES WITHIN 93L


This is voritcy. Link

That is convergence which along with upper level divergence can keep convection going. There is only one major area of vorticy.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Normally I wouldn't use the NAM to track a tropical system but I think since it's doing better with the nor easter than the GFS (GFS leaves it and open trough) then its got the righ idea. Maybe a little to strong with the nor easter.


I've been using the NAM throughout this season....and it beats some of the global models such as UKMET and NOGAPS numerous times. I also like it because it doesn't forecast too far out developing phantom cyclones.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
upper level west winds


Correct. There were true W winds around 19N @ 16000ft. Only SW winds were found around the believed center @ 500ft or so. That tells you the center is north and inland from the 18N they were sampling.
NHC said the circulation is better defined...i.e. it has a sfc circulation just not well organized convection.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


This is voritcy. Link

That is convergence which along with upper level divergence can keep convection going. There is only one major area of vorticy.


I am well aware of that.

I have been saying this all evening, "The cyclone at the eastern tip of Hispaniola is the dominant one". Nevertheless, other miniature vortices are still present. The two areas of convergence means that air is converging at two places....indicating that a miniature cyclone is present.
This could be a New England Hurricane
Quoting extreme236:
NHC said the circulation is better defined...i.e. it has a sfc circulation just not well organized convection.


They probably will classify it as soon as it gets back over water if it makes it.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This could be a New England Hurricane


of 1938.....not out of the question.

It is best to remain conservative for the time being.
A little hard for me to reconcile the 2:00 PM downgrade to "medium" and a tropical disturbance statement at 5:00 on a very poorly organized area of "convection", but, I guess the proximity to land (DR and PR)warrants a close eye just in case the current shear on the disturbance "suddenly" weakens before it moves to the north......I still think that this system might become toast between the shear and proximity to land, however, this does not in any way diminish the rain and mudslide threat to DR/Haiti/PR that this disturbance poses to those islands....It really needs to move away from there...How quick do the models/conditions take it off to the N/NW?....."Slowly" per NHC won't cut it for the folks down there in terms of potential rain................
Quoting hurricane23:
Pretty good consensus on a general movement of to the North.18z early sophisticated models.



I am SO not liking this picture! I don't wish this thing on anyone, but I don't want it either...
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This could be a New England Hurricane


Models certainly want to send it up here,but gotta see more developement and what the east coast storm does.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This could be a New England Hurricane


Well we already had the 2008 Galveston Hurricane this year and Hurricane Katrina's little Brother.
Quoting NEwxguy:


Models certainly want to send it up here,but gotta see more developement and what the east coast storm does.
wait watch see
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well we already had the 2008 Galveston Hurricane this year and Hurricane Katrina's little Brother.
all where missing is the express
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all where missing is the express
Not even funny
Look at the Vis sat loop (floater) of 93L there is a circulation about 150miles almost due South of the "official" COC, it looks more impressive also. Weird system , then again that sames a pattern this season. I just don't see a northward movement to 93L at all, if anything it has been moving due west or a little N of due west all day.
Quoting violet312s:
I'm an idiot. Here is the text of the matching charity offer. If someone could post this every 100 posts for the next day that would be hugely appreciated.

Now for me to go to bed. Thanks all! May Kyle swoop off into the maritimes and never impact land.

Suzanne

Announcing the "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE"

I will match Portlight contributions dollar for dollar* so we can fund another truck. Press will also match two dollars for every dollar donated*. Let's make another truck happen!!! We know there is a great need.

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*Yeah both Press and I have a matching limit that we'll keep to ourselves, but we're matching a good chunk of change and we can fill that truck if you match us!


Sorry.. Think I've been slacking! I just can't keep up with this blog during the day.. it goes ZOOM
Quoting Engine2:
Not even funny
wasn't mean to be funny in actually it may be quite scary
Quoting stormpetrol:
Look at the Vis sat loop (floater) of 93L there is a circulation about 150miles almost due South of the "official" COC, it looks more impressive also. Weird system , then again that sames a pattern this season. I just don't see a northward movement to 93L at all, if anything it has been moving due west or a little N of due west all day.



Don't even think about mentioning another FAY

I have done well forecasting tropical cyclones all my life. However, Fay defied all of my forecast.
StormW you think the models will shift a lil west on next runs?
well wait thats if there is something to shift
Good afternoon/evening, StormW... if you get a chance, could you possibly answer my previous, unanswered question?

Is it possible, this far west, for 93L to split into two separate storms, with that vigorous blob to the south of PR/DR getting it's own LLC? On infrared, they're barely even connected anymore. Have you ever seen that happen in/near the Carribean? Thanks...

Jo
SHIPS wants to bring "Kyle" into New York City as a 80 MPH Hurricane. Even a Category 1 is destructive to a city like New York.
This system is producing record breaking situations here in PR. 2 Tornadoes were reported in the southern part of San Juan City.



Quoting RMM34667:

Thanks! Dr. Masters will be putting information on the matching challenge in his next blog update! Woohoo
775. rhomanov

Hope you guys stay safe
Thanx Stormw thats what i am thinking also
While Models are good guidance and can be fairly accurate at times, its seems to me that man , even the experts have become too dependent on sophisticated technology instead of using observance, logic and common sense, now that is not to say this system won't move NNW to N but based on what we're seeing right now so far its not panning out that way for the moment.
782. 786
Does anyone else see a narrow ridge elongating NE to SW to the NW of 93L??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Could this be why 93L has not moved N?

None of the models forecasted such a ridge.

It really looks like a high possibility of center relocation around 16N and 67W moving WSW or W once the N center gets destroyed over Hispanola.

If it doesn't relocate I think it will be done and destroyed.
Quoting extreme236:
NHC said the circulation is better defined...i.e. it has a sfc circulation just not well organized convection.


People just need a more few hours to bacame Kyle in 12 hr. Calm donw this are going to be a fish storm.
Quoting 786:
Does anyone else see a narrow ridge elongating NE to SW to the NW of 93L??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Could this be why 93L has not moved N?

None of the models forecasted such a ridge.

It really looks like a high possibility of center relocation around 16N and 67W moving WSW or W once the N center gets destroyed over Hispanola.

If it doesn't relocate I think it will be done and destroyed.


Name even an invest this year that has been destroyed by Hispaniola. I highly doubt that this will dissipate. I'd say Kyle 11 PM with 45 MPH winds.
Thank you, StormW, and sorry to bother you so quickly after you got on, but I have to go offline, and sheesh, it really is looking like its own storm, even if it never gets an LLC, and it's seemed to be its own entity for so very long now... days, in fact. Thanks...

Jo
786. 786
..another possibility is the Southern TS detaches itself and develops a center of circulation or just drifes W and dies off
The west winds the hunters found were at 500', hardly upper level. There was no significant drop in pressure or sudden change of winds like passing through a center. Winds did drop as the west winds began but failed to pick up considerably till well after E winds reappeared. Looking at surface observations other surface lows seem to come & go in the area as well. Just not organized enough with one nicely closed low.
Quoting antonio28:


People just need a more few hours to bacame Kyle in 12 hr. Calm donw this are going to be a fish storm.


Not by the model's, slamming right into New Jersey and New York City.
789. 786
..it looks like it is starting to detach...
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "NINA" has slightly weakened as it accelerated towards the South China Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14 (2100z 22Sept)
===========================================
At 5:00 AM PhT, Typhoon Nina (Hagupit) located near 20.1ºN 118.7ºE or 270 kms northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 160 km/h (85 kts) with gusts up to 195 km/h (105 kts).

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Apayao
3.Northwestern Cagayan
4.Babuyan Island

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes
2.Calayan Group of Islands
3.Rest of Cagayan
4.Kalinga
5.Abra
6.Mt. Province
7.Benguet
8.Ilocos Sur
9.La Union
10.Pangasinan
The true storm killer mountains are on the Jut of Hati they can serverly disrupt systems Fay may have not come to be the soaker that it was if it had hit that jut. If 93l does stay on the Northern half of the Island than it can survive.
93L has a closed low it would seem, it's convective activity just isn't well organized, although the most recent frame I saw showed a little more organized storm, just all of the activity on one side.
Models centered around New York, but luckily only likely around a strong TS. IMO the only thing in terms of hurricanes that New York can't handle is a large cat. 2 or above moving quickly (40 mph+) between WNW-to-N and making a direct landfall on or immediately near that Island south of Bayonne, New Jersey, at high tide. Luckily, it doesn't look like that will happen this time.
Quoting antonio28:
People just need a more few hours to bacame Kyle in 12 hr. Calm donw this are going to be a fish storm.


So even though it dumps all time records of rain on puerto rico, which will also eventually effect hispaniola, its a fish?

And on top of that, nearly all models forsee land fall..


I may not know much about storms, but it would be foolish to bet on where 93L will be 24 or even 48 hours from now.
93L looks similar to Hanna before it became a TS.
It would be quite a sight to see in 24 hrs is the convection to the south is detached and becoming its over storm while 93l contiunes to develop they are too weak to casue Fugiwara so no chance of that.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not by the model's, slamming right into New Jersey and New York City.


boy, if you thought the t.v. coverage of previous storms was something, just imagine what it would be like with the above scenario.
Id 93L truly does not have a llc or just a MLC it can survive DR just look at Fay and that system pretty much hit the highest mountains of DR.
Quoting Vortex95:
It would be quite a sight to see in 24 hrs is the convection to the south is detached and becoming its over storm while 93l contiunes to develop they are too weak to casue Fugiwara so no chance of that.


Its all one storm.
is this nor'easter supposed to form off the trof that is off the coast now? or another one coming down the pike?
Well I guess its convection is severed momentarily and will be brought back in or will it just leave 93l the large area of convection?
someone had told me that we had another system other than 93L. System off of Africa.
Quoting Vortex95:
Well I guess its convection is severed momentarily and will be brought back in or will it just leave 93l the large area of convection?


Its not severed. Its with the system just on the east and SE side due to some westerly shear that is decreasing according to the GOES shear map, and should become more favorable as the NHC said. Center appears to be slightly exposed right now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
is this nor'easter supposed to form off the trof that is off the coast now? or another one coming down the pike?


Local NC weatherman says it will develop from the one off the coast now.
The Atlantic wave is looking okay it should enter the carribean by weeks end.
is it becoming unexposed or it just got expsoed?
Quoting StormW:
771. will40 5:29 PM EDT on September 22, 2008
StormW you think the models will shift a lil west on next runs?


Slightly.
My daily thanks for your updates. Will you post tonight or am?
810. h6
Quoting stormpetrol:
While Models are good guidance and can be fairly accurate at times, its seems to me that man , even the experts have become too dependent on sophisticated technology instead of using observance, logic and common sense, now that is not to say this system won't move NNW to N but based on what we're seeing right now so far its not panning out that way for the moment.


Very well said.
That is a general problem nowadays. It is a phenomenon of todays society. It is typical for a society that is more and more dependent on information flows and technology.

If just look at the effects of a a few hours of power outage after a storm it is hard to imagine, that just 100 years ago nobody needed electric power for living.
how long can a front hang off the coast before it starts to degrade and become a nonplayer?
Will be really interesting to see what happens with this disturbance overnight as the persistent convection (check) is not going away right now....BBT and Have a Nice evening Bloggers, and a safe evening, for our friends in PR and DR...........WW
Are they sending out another recon tonight?
I can live off caned goods and non perishables I think Im halfway there :P.
new blog!!
816. Mikla
new Dr. M blog
I hope for puerto rico's sake this thing starts moving.
I love the old blogs,lol
Area of interest, near 29-30W, 13-15N. Associated with a tropical wave and has some weak vorticity. In a pocket of low shear.
Quoting futuremet:
Hey, what direction is 93L moving right now?

W, WNW, N, NW, NNW?

I need to know.

Knowing this is a momentous necessity for efficient forecasting


If you're forecasting then you need the ability to tell US the movement direction! *shrug*
Hey everybody. I've been off the blog for a while, so I'm mainly on a "ketchup" run for now. LOL

Maybe tomorrow I will post some stuff. So far it's been interesting reading about 93L, but I admit to reading American politics this weekend!!! [ducking and running for cover]
Quoting Vortex95:
Was Fay in Orange or Red? when it Formed?

Also if it does form over DR would it be the first time since naming began 2 systems were named over land?
It was blue. /-D
Couldn't resist, sorry, soooo sorry, also I vote for 2008 to be the year of expect the unexpected, or rules, what rules? storms have no rules and don't play by the ones they have had.
Good evening folks
Bin away for a couple of Hrs. Things still look pretty much the same with our storm. How high are the rainfall totals in PR by now?

looks like this offer hasn't been posted for a bit and didn't find a cancelation notice so here it is again.

))))))))))))))))))))))))((((((((((((((((((((((
Hey folks:
we need to hold Presslord's feet to the fire on his matching offer. Here's how to make sure he pays up.

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presslord: WUmail

If we all cough up a little we can get him to pay up a lot. LOL



Announcing the "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE"

I will match Portlight contributions dollar for dollar* so we can fund another truck. Press will also match two dollars for every dollar donated*. Let's make another truck happen!!! We know there is a great need.


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*Yeah both Press and I have a matching limit that we'll keep to ourselves, but we're matching a good chunk of change and we can fill that truck if you match us!


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