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September in November: Mild Autumn Continues for Much of U.S.

By: Bob Henson 4:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2016

The tenacious pattern that’s delayed the first frosts and freezes this autumn as far north as the Upper Midwest remains in place for much of the U.S. as we kick off November. Most of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has had a few quick shots of cold weather (Baltimore had its first freeze on October 26, a few days earlier than average), but many other parts of the nation have been uncommonly free of autumn’s frosty grasp. Denver has yet to see its first snowflake, making this second autumn in a row it has gotten to October 31 without any snow. This is also the first time the city has experienced three snowless Octobers in a row in records going back to 1872 (although there was a trace of snow in September 2014). There was plenty of snow in Minneapolis 25 years ago today, when the city was still in the throes of its infamous Halloween Blizzard of 1991 (here’s a nice photo gallery from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). On November 4, 1991, the airport low reached –3°F, the earliest below-zero reading in city history. The contrast with this year couldn’t be much more stark. The Twin Cities have yet to dip below 36°F anytime this fall, and readings there should stay near or above 40°F for at least the next week. The latest freeze on record for Minneapolis occurred on Nov. 7, 1900.

Monday was the warmest Halloween on record for a wide swath of U.S. cities, as noted by weather.com’s Chris Dolce, including Atlanta, GA (86°F); Huntsville, AL (88°F); Amarillo, TX (87°F); and Colorado Springs, CO (80°F). A number of locations across the South and Midwest could set all-time heat records for November on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. For example, Louisville, KY, has a shot on both days at matching or beating its all-time November high of 84°F (set Nov. 17, 1958). Records in Louisville go back to 1872.

This past month has a shot of beating 1963 for the warmest October in U.S. recordkeeping, though it’ll be a few days before we know for sure.


Figure 1. Temperature anomalies (departures from average) for October 1 - 30, 2016. Virtually the entire nation was above average for the month, except for the soggy Pacific Coast from northern California through most of Washington. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center.

Still wet to to the northwest, dry to the southeast
October delivered a bountiful crop of moisture to the United States, but that water was distributed very unevenly. From Washington to northern California, the U.S. Pacific Coast was slammed by a series of powerful Pacific storms that gave two state capitals (Olympia, WA, and Salem, OR) their wettest Octobers on record. The relentlessly strong Pacific jet pushed enough moisture to eastern Washington and western Idaho to produce even more impressive records there. Spokane saw not only its wettest October but its wettest single month on record, with 6.23” beating the 5.85” notched in November 1897. The city saw 22 days with measurable precipitation, besting the monthly record of 20 days recorded in October 1947, plus 4 more days with a trace of rainfall. At higher altitudes, the strong Pacific flow led to record-high monthly precipitation at dozens of mountain stations (see Figure 2). Further southeast, a few high-altitude spots in Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado reported their lowest October totals on record.

All-time wettest Octobers
Seattle, WA: 10.05” (old record 8.96”, 2003; records began in 1894)
Spokane, WA: 6.23” (old record 5.41”, 1947; records began in 1881)
Olympia, WA: 12.43” (old record 10.72”, 2003; records began in 1948)
Vancouver, WA: 8.22” (old record 7.37”, 1997; records began in 1892)
Priest River, ID: 9.26” (old record 8.31”, 1947; records began in 1898)
Salem, OR: 11.25” (old record 11.17”, 1947; records began in 1892)



Figure 2. Mountain precipitation for the water year to date (October 1-31, 2016) shows the wettest totals on record for stations in dark blue, with the driest totals on record for stations in dark red. Periods of record vary by location but are typically several decades long. Image credit: USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center.


Figure 3. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report that tracked conditions through October 25, 2016, showed patches of D4 drought (exceptional), the most dire category, over parts of northeast Alabama, northwest Georgia, and far southeast Tennessee. Much of the South is now experiencing both short- and long-term drought impacts (black circle). Image credit: National Drought Mitigation Center


Message from the Southeast: please send water
While heavy rains and snows plastered the Northwest, drought conditions intensified across the Southeast. Much of Alabama and Georgia was lucky to see even 0.25” of rain, and many locations got far less. According to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor issued on October 27, two of Georgia’s nine climate divisions and one of Alabama’s eight divisions saw their driest 60-day periods on record.

All-time driest Octobers, or extremely close
Tuscaloosa, AL: 0.00” (old record a trace, 1904; records began in 1900)
Rome, GA: trace (tied with 1938 and 1963; records began in 1893)
Birmingham, AL: trace (record remains 0.00”, 1924; records began in 1895)

There is a glimmer of hope in the medium-range forecast for the Southeast, as part of an upper-level trough may break off and dip into the region to bring rain next week. However, that scenario could easily change. In the longer term, NOAA’s Seasonal Drought Outlook is calling for drought to persist (and possibly worsen) through January 31, 2017, from the Arkatex region across to western North Carolina, including most of Mississippi and Alabama. With a weak La Niña expected, NOAA is projecting drier-than-average conditions over the Southeast through the upcoming winter and into spring 2017. La Niña tends to favor an active storm track across the northern U.S. with drier conditions across the Sunbelt.


Figure 4. In this Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2016 photo, an abandoned boat sits in the remains of a dried-out pond in Dawson, Alabama. Some of the South’s most beautiful mountains and valleys are filling with desperation as a worsening drought kills crops, threatens cattle, and sinks lakes to their lowest levels in years. The very worst conditions are in the mountains of northern Alabama and Georgia. Image credit: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson.

An ecological and political crisis deepens
On October 18, Alabama’s Office of Water Resources placed roughly the northeast half of the state under a drought emergency, which urges large users of water to implement conservation plans. Streamflows across northern Alabama are at or near record lows. Despite the drought’s severity, there are no state restrictions on water usage. “There’s a complete lack of a water plan in Alabama, and if you look at the history of water management in state, we always freak out in droughts,” Mitch Reid, director of the nonprofit Alabama Rivers Alliance, told the Huffington Post. One report issued in September found that Alabama was the weakest of the Southeastern states in its water management practices.

The current situation is the latest in an escalating series of drought-related crises affecting the Southeast, where rising populations have come up against an increasingly uncertain water supply. While the average amount of summer rainfall across the Southeast hasn’t changed in recent decades, the year-to-year variability has significantly increased. The comprehensive global modeling (CMIP5) associated with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment shows that this variability in Southeast summer rainfall is likely to increase even further as this century unfolds, according to a 2013 study in Geophysical Research Letters led by Laifang Li (Duke University). “Overall, the ensemble of CMIP5 models suggest that the increase in [greenhouse gas] concentrations will likely enhance SE U.S. summer precipitation variability and result in more frequent occurrence of both dry and wet extremes in the future,” wrote Li and colleagues.

Recent droughts have also intensified the stakes in courtrooms, where the seemingly endless “tri-state water dispute” has pitted Georgia, Alabama, and Florida against each other since an initial lawsuit was filed back in 1990. In a nutshell, Florida is accusing metropolitan Atlanta and the state of Georgia of taking more than its fair share of southward-flowing water from the Chattahoochee and Flint rivers. Alabama is siding with Florida in the latest salvo, a trial that began on Monday at a federal courthouse in (of all places) Portland, Maine. Observers are calling this trial a potential milestone in the ongoing battle. This article from the Gainesville (FL) Times has a handy chronology of the 26-year-old saga.

We’ll be back with a new post by Wednesday afternoon.

Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I want cooler weather to kill the mosquitoes.
Quoting 151. 999Ai2016:

Geo-engineering unlikely to work, conservation group says
Climate News Network - November 2016.


Indeed, but the ongoing terra forming of a warmer wetter Global Climate is on schedule.





From the last blog.
Click this text, or image to watch the whole movie on Youtube :

"Join Leonardo DiCaprio as he explores the topic of climate change, and discovers what must be done today to prevent catastrophic disruption of life on our planet." Youtube video added on October 30 - more than 4,000,000 views to date.

=========
I gotta get myself
Off the side of the road
I gotta get myself up off the side of the road
Things are lookin' clear as they've ever been
Don't know how it'll end but I know where to begin

Gotta get myself
Off the side of the road
I got to quit lying to myself
And let the truth be told
I got to quit lying to myself
And let the truth be told (...)


The Record Company - Off The Ground (Official Music Video - Youtube)
As a former Alabama resident, I can tell you..they pretty much don't plan for nuthin'.
The blog is so dead, such a change after Hermine, Matthew, Nicole.
Things could be worse.........we could be in China where they are experiencing their lowest October temperatures on record in many locations (see link below for details).

Link
Those draught areas line up perfectly with the western edge of the rain shields of Hermine and Matthew. For all the damage they did, these systems were an absolute godsend for the eastern edge of the drought area. Except for rain attributable to these two systems, parts of Charlotte, NC haven't seen a drop of rain since August 27th.
Quoting 1. TheBigBanana:

I want cooler weather to kill the mosquitoes.


All the cold air has been trapped over in Eastern Europe and Asia. But the GFS brings temperatures in the 30s all the way down to the Gulf Coast on November 14th. (two weeks from now so I wouldn't hold your breath).

30s down to the Gulf Coast and Northern Fl. Hopefully it materializes and does help zap some of the mosquitoes.
Double Post due to some random advertisement.
I gotta say guys ... two blog posts in two days and not one mention of our "medicane" .... im dissapointed ... feels a bit like our beloved blog is being comercially influenced more and more. Not sure how I feel about that.
Quoting 10. hurricaneryan87:

I gotta say guys ... two blog posts in two days and not one mention of our "medicane" .... im dissapointed ... feels a bit like our beloved blog is being comercially influenced more and more. Not sure how I feel about that.

Huh?
We've got about the same weather heat problem in Southern Europe right now with temps in the upper 20s/C so about 80+F not good for the natural world all this warm dry heat in November but the bars are doing a good trade with the street drinkers I noticed today.

Meanwhile. Smog update.
On the Spanish TV news this afternoon.
As of tomorrow 2nd, only cars with even number ending number plates allowed into Madrid, the day after, the 3rd only odd ending number plates allowed in. so on until the pollution clears.
This is expected to carry on until the end of the week at least, also no street parking allowed. Exemptions for electric and some other vehicles.
A normal background level of Chaos is expected of course.
This “brown sky scenario,” seems to have been becoming a more frequent recently.
it was julia and her leftovers that gave us large amounts of precip this yr. 17 inches in a week period. the other two together registered half of that. e cen fl.
Quoting 11. ACSeattle:


Huh?


This year Pepsi is sponsoring the US drought.
wonder if the forecasted cool down mid nov is partially due to a low pressure coming out of the nw carib.?
Looks like IBM is having to re-write all the code for this site. Functionally is gradually improving and I predict that it will someday behave like its supposed to.
I'm sure they had to deal with hacked/patched code from two generations of people who likely didn't know what they were doing.
I have no love lost for this blog, but it looks like the site itself may be worthy of some respect here someday pretty soon.
Thanks Mr. Henson; the heat prognosis for November.................Might go down with some heat records for November this coming month for large sections of Conus:




https://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/reco rd-warm-pattern-reversal-ahead
according to DR steve greg there should be a reversal in about a week or two .for those who like winter hang on to your hats because it could come with a fury
Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:



All the cold air has been trapped over in Eastern Europe and Asia. But the GFS brings temperatures in the 30s all the way down to the Gulf Coast on November 14th. (two weeks from now so I wouldn't hold your breath).

30s down to the Gulf Coast and Northern Fl. Hopefully it materializes and does help zap some of the mosquitoes.

yup,pattern should change soon.hopefully
I hope this is a site issue and not an indication that we only have a week left....
KRAL 10-Day.. er 7 Day Forecast..

55.6F this morning, coldest since late May...
Quoting 6. RichardBLong:

Things could be worse.........we could be in China where they are experiencing their lowest October temperatures on record in many locations (see link below for details).

Link


The article wasn't about rotten weather, its about warm weather in the United States. Is "It could be worse" dialogue required? Is someone upset about a warm November day? Oh wait, I get it. Another climate change denier inserts a conditioned response to a weather article that says its a warm day. Just say it: "Look, its actually cold somewhere else. Don't believe this article supports global warming"
On the issue of the tri-state water war, with North Florida on the downstream side of Chattahoochee to Apalachicola River to the Gulf, while we sit on top of a healthy aquafer in parts of the Big Bend, the issue is not limited only to agricultural use of river water in North Florida but potential destruction of the oyster industry in Appalachee Bay from not enough fresh water inflow from the River where it meets the Gulf to balance the typical salinity levels needed for a healthy estuary/ecosystem in the bay.
Quoting 1. TheBigBanana:

I want cooler weather to kill the mosquitoes.

And now another reason to be concerned about warming and mosquito-borne Zika:

"Zika shrinks mice testicles, damaging fertility"

Link
Quoting 20. PedleyCA:

I hope this is a site issue and not an indication that we only have a week left....
KRAL 10-Day.. er 7 Day Forecast..

55.6F this morning, coldest since late May...

Nothing, starting on Election Day. Hmmmmm.
Birmingham has set 4 record highs in a row now, 6 in the last 30 days, and today is the hottest November on record. Tomorrow and Wednesday could potentially set records as well. Today is the 45th day without measurable rain, record is 52, good chance we're going to break that record as well.

GFS 5-day shows a classic omega block over most of the US, but nice strong Pacific jet to keep filling the Sierra reservoirs.
Quoting 20. PedleyCA:

I hope this is a site issue and not an indication that we only have a week left....
KRAL 10-Day.. er 7 Day Forecast..

55.6F this morning, coldest since late May...

I was thinking the same thing when I saw that this morning. I thought at least I won't have to go to work if the end is coming!
"Recent droughts have also intensified the stakes in courtrooms, where the seemingly endless “tri-state water dispute” has pitted Georgia, Alabama, and Florida against each other since an initial lawsuit was filed back in 1990."

This is what happens because some long-ago dead person had drawn straight lines on a map, instead of predominantly using naturally occurring boundaries, such a heights of land or watersheds, for political boundaries.


"“There’s a complete lack of a water plan in Alabama, and if you look at the history of water management in state, we always freak out in droughts,” Mitch Reid, director of the nonprofit Alabama Rivers Alliance, told the Huffington Post."

Water policy should be number one on every political 'agenda'.
Without a sound water policy, you might as well go home and die, because without an ample potable or fresh water supply, and unpolluted water (both fresh water and salt water environments); there will be no food, no energy, no transportation or communications, no habitation or infrastructure, and no economy.
Our governments must have been asleep at the helm for the past two centuries.
Remarkably steadily warm in Ohio where my son is in college. DC metro has indeed had some cool shots and has not had a record warm October (something like 8'th warmest probably following 4'th warmest september, 2d' warmest august and 6'th warmest July) October 1963 was our driest month of record also with only a trace total.

Our November monthly record of 86F set Nov 1, 1974 does not appear to be in danger.

31. SuzK
Quoting 12. PlazaRed:

We've got about the same weather heat problem in Southern Europe right now with temps in the upper 20s/C so about 80 F not good for the natural world all this warm dry heat in November but the bars are doing a good trade with the street drinkers I noticed today.

Meanwhile. Smog update.
On the Spanish TV news this afternoon.
As of tomorrow 2nd, only cars with even number ending number plates allowed into Madrid, the day after, the 3rd only odd ending number plates allowed in. so on until the pollution clears.
This is expected to carry on until the end of the week at least, also no street parking allowed. Exemptions for electric and some other vehicles.
A normal background level of Chaos is expected of course.
This %u201Cbrown sky scenario,%u201D seems to have been becoming a more frequent recently.

I have been noticing brown clouds more and more often. They are slender and elongated, and can be found here and there, from end to end along 40W in the US, say traveling I-80 from Atlantic to Pacific. We live near I-80; we've traveled it from end to end the last 9 years. Every year I see more of these brown clouds, further east. I can remember the line of smog over Detroit in the 60's and 70's...same brown. The current brown clouds are higher up and moving faster. I think they foretell nothing good as they slowly accumulate. I saw them today, in the northeastern Appalachians of Pennsylvania and was struck by their presence. Semi horrified, actually.
Das boom,....!

Humans,....pfffhtttf'


Quoting 155. Pipejazz:

Link
Gas line south of Birmingham explodes.



33. bwi
Still lots and lots of open water in the Arctic. That's gonna have ramifications for somebody...
what a beautiful mid sixty degree day today feels like late sept up here in south central Ontario


attic on fire
basement is aglow

faster and faster on with the show
Observed at:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
4:00 PM EDT Tuesday 1 November 2016

Temperature:
63.0°F

normal 48.0°F
Not bad for only 10.5 hrs of sunlight, hit 80 today in S C IL. Slightly under 30" w/ Southerly winds at 10 gusting to 30. Rain probable tomorrow p.m., then back closer to avg highs thru the 10 day. Tonight's minimum will be about same as those highs. I'd call it Indian Summer normally, but haven't had anything near a killing frost or freeze yet. Have a hard maple just now turning, though other one is peak color. Can see some change in oaks finally as well. Fall mushrooms were a little later too.
Quoting 10. hurricaneryan87:

I gotta say guys ... two blog posts in two days and not one mention of our "medicane" .... im dissapointed ... feels a bit like our beloved blog is being comercially influenced more and more. Not sure how I feel about that.


No commercial influence--just competing priorities! We'll get to it in the very near future. A fascinating storm indeed.
We remain unlucky. No good rain today. The mess is huge on IR but nothing over land, everything over water.
Quoting 34. Pipejazz:



Gasoline pipeline south of Birmingham explodes. This may be the largest gasoline line in the US. Another no gasoline senerio for the east. Noticed that this line is also owned by Colonial.

\

This is about ten miles from my house, neighborhood was pretty smokey last night. Luckily the wind was calm yesterday so they were able to easily contain it and let it burn out.
We may not officially be in a drought here but after having only 1 day of precip for a total of 0.42 on October 15th since September 23, we are dusty dry.

Also, the day we did have rain, we were lucky as most areas didn't get rain, otherwise rainfall has been non-existent for most areas area wide since September 23. The grass died a while ago.

I went up to camp at Providence Canyon in Central GA and it was remarkably dry. Most grassy areas had died so long ago that most open fields where areas of dusty orange dirt with a few left over dead grass patches. I also saw ponds, lakes and drainage ditches that were near or completely dried up.


The scary thing about droughts in moist climates is that water tends to be wasted, and on top of that, since the ecology is used to large amounts of water, the areas are hit hard by long term dry weather. As was mentioned, Alabama doesn't really plan for drought, and it's the same issue in Florida too where the population is high and water conservation is poor. People forget that wet climates also use up a lot more water than dry ones, so when it stops raining as drought hits, wet areas are impacted more severely than dry climates that are used to it.

For example, some of the dry stretches here in GA, FL, AL and other areas in the southeast would be no big deal for the southwest where areas typically already go on streak where there are a few months in a row with less than an inch of rain.
Quoting 36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



attic on fire


This has to be a clear cut strong signal. Global Warming is about to rear it's ugly head in a bigger way sooner than scientists thought.

surface temperature:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent:
Quoting 46. CraigsIsland:



This has to be a clear cut strong signal. Global Warming is about to rear it's ugly head in a bigger way sooner than scientists thought.

surface temperature:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent:


We shouldn't jump to conclusions without first putting things into perspective. So far this year we have not seen any increase in the mean temperature anomaly globally. In fact, per the current run of the NCEP GFS 0.5deg analysis 2m air temperature anomaly time series (link below for convenience), the northern hemisphere has seen a small decrease (cooling trend) from the beginning of the year.

Link
Quoting 44. pipelines:

\

This is about ten miles from my house, neighborhood was pretty smokey last night. Luckily the wind was calm yesterday so they were able to easily contain it and let it burn out.


Glad you're ok and did not have to evacuate. I am concerned about the six burned workers. I check al.com every now and then. My relatives live in Leeds.
Deep Derp watch is just posted.

This may b upgraded to a warning soon.





😯💪
Quoting 40. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Observed at:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
4:00 PM EDT Tuesday 1 November 2016

Temperature:
63.0 F

normal 48.0 F



Quoting 10. hurricaneryan87:

I gotta say guys ... two blog posts in two days and not one mention of our "medicane" .... im dissapointed ... feels a bit like our beloved blog is being comercially influenced more and more. Not sure how I feel about that.

I noticed lots of lightning activity with that storm as it edged thru the eastern mediterranean last evening. It looked like the most electrically active area of the Northern Hemisphere, using that new realtime detector map I found the other day.
Quoting 49. Patrap:

Deep Derp watch is just posted.

This may b upgraded to a warning soon.




on me or other poster?
Have a great weather evening; gonna fill up the gas tank on the way home before the short-term spike starts hitting AL/North FL/GA from the gas line incident.......................................... ....
Quoting 52. RichardBLong:




This is the author.

quite the vocabulary.



✌😁🍺😨
Quoting 46. CraigsIsland:



This has to be a clear cut strong signal. Global Warming is about to rear it's ugly head in a bigger way sooner than scientists thought.


Soon the Arctic Ocean is ready to say "burp". Although I don't know, what is ugly about the shortening of international maritime trade journeys by thousands of miles.
Quoting 54. CraigsIsland:



on me or other poster?
another long one
Quoting 57. elioe:



Soon the Arctic Ocean is ready to say "burp". Although I don't know, what is ugly about the shortening of international maritime trade journeys by thousands of miles.

Yes, millions of square kilometers of the Earth's surface going from 80% reflectivity of solar radiation to 80% absorption. What could possibly go wrong with that?
Quoting 52. RichardBLong:




The way I'm interpreting this graph is that it shows a comparison of temp between two sources? Am I understanding this graph right? This doesn't deal directly with absolute "anomaly" averages of world temps.
Quoting 47. RichardBLong:



We shouldn't jump to conclusions without first putting things into perspective. So far this year we have not seen any increase in the mean temperature anomaly globally. In fact, per the current run of the NCEP GFS 0.5deg analysis 2m air temperature anomaly time series (link below for convenience), the northern hemisphere has seen a small decrease (cooling trend) from the beginning of the year.

Link

Yes, it's called going from the peak of a super El Niño to a weak La Niña.
It has been dry for so long in Atlanta, my small garden is pretty much dead. Most people who live in the city seem pretty oblivious though, it's sunny and clear everyday and you can still wear shorts! That's all anyone seems to care about... I personaly would like more seasonable temps and some RAIN.
Quoting 57. elioe:



Soon the Arctic Ocean is ready to say "burp". Although I don't know, what is ugly about the shortening of international maritime trade journeys by thousands of miles.
methane tons of methane 20 times more powerful
Quoting 59. ACSeattle:


Yes, millions of square kilometers of the Earth's surface going from 80% reflectivity of solar radiation to 80% absorption. What could possibly go wrong with that?


Oh, some 2% of Earth's surface doing that, given that the angle of radiation is pretty low? That's some 0.5 degrees Celsius of global warming. Not accounting for the cloud cover above those 2%, of course.

And actually most of that absorbed sunlight would get stored as heat in the ocean during the summer, getting released to atmosphere and as excess outbound radiation during winter. So the 0.5 degrees of average increase in average global temperature would manifest themselves primarily as wintertime warming in high latitudes.
Quoting 63. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

methane tons of methane 20 times more powerful


Well, I'm not sure how much of the methane is going to get released. Actually, water below 200 meter depth is likely to become permanently colder as Arctic loses its stratification. What is going to say "burp" are the ten million megatons of TNT equivalent of excess heat, that is currently trapped below the fresh surface layer. Enough to keep the entire Arctic icefree for many decades. Not even counting the decreasing albedo.
Quoting 20. PedleyCA:

I hope this is a site issue and not an indication that we only have a week left....
KRAL 10-Day.. er 7 Day Forecast..

55.6F this morning, coldest since late May...


They factored in the 9.0 EQ coming to California later this week...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012339
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east-northeast
of the northern Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness
and showers. Although this system is likely to become non-tropical
during the next couple of days, it could acquire subtropical
characteristics later this week or weekend while moving north-
northeastward and northward into the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Pedley - You'll have to check the maritime forecast for your weather now... Here is a link.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS56.KL OX.html

Link
Quoting 67. Dakster:



They factored in the 9.0 EQ coming to California later this week...




Well, damn.. think I'll go camp on the other side of the faultline....
Quoting 70. PedleyCA:



Well, damn.. think I'll go camp on the other side of the faultline....


Would that would be in Nevada or Arizona for you?
Quoting 71. Dakster:



Would that would be in Nevada or Arizona for you?


Only about 25 miles N of here.
Quoting 42. BobHenson:



No commercial influence--just competing priorities! We'll get to it in the very near future. A fascinating storm indeed.


Medicane by Angela Fritz

Link

I am above the R in Riverside, just on the other side of the river.
Cubs 3-0 The southern San Andreas has a smaller, neighboring fault to its west
Pedley - How is big bear lake this time of the year?
Quoting 75. Dakster:

Pedley - How is big bear lake this time of the year?


Big and wet
Quoting 61. ACSeattle:


Yes, it's called going from the peak of a super El Nio to a weak La Nia.

It's also called... no scientist with integrity would look at a sub-annual plot of global temperature and attempt to make any conclusions about climate.

Just flag and ignore the trolling post.
Quoting 46. CraigsIsland:



This has to be a clear cut strong signal. Global Warming is about to rear it's ugly head in a bigger way sooner than scientists thought.

surface temperature:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent:

Do not read too much into intra-year variability. Remember, weather is noise upon the trend. A weather event cannot itself signal a change in that trend.
Quoting 76. PedleyCA:



Big and wet


I had a snarky comment back, but I will just wumail it to you...

Good place to ride out the big one though?
Quoting 57. elioe:



Soon the Arctic Ocean is ready to say "burp". Although I don't know, what is ugly about the shortening of international maritime trade journeys by thousands of miles.

You'll find out, unfortunately.

You won't like it.
Grand Slamm Cubs up 7-0
Quoting 77. ScottLincoln:


It's also called... no scientist with integrity would look at a sub-annual plot of global temperature and attempt to make any conclusions about climate.

Just flag and ignore the trolling post.

Good advice, I'm sure. I think this type of trolling has a specific name, but damned if I can recall it. In any case, I find it particularly obnoxious, because the person doing it tries conceal his true colors by wrapping himself in the mantle of reason.
Quoting 78. ScottLincoln:


Do not read too much into intra-year variability. Remember, weather is noise upon the trend. A weather event cannot itself signal a change in that trend.

Yes, but climate begins as weather.
Cubs 7, Indians 1
Quoting 80. Misanthroptimist:


You'll find out, unfortunately.

You won't like it.


I'll find it soon, fortunately. I guess I'll like it. What do I expect here in inland Southern Finland? Sudden increase in "normal" winter temperatures by some 5 - 7 degrees Celsius, autumn and spring by 1 - 2 degrees, no change in summer temperature "norm". A decrease in temperature variability during summer. Somewhat more precipitation during all seasons. Good for my personal activities, good for local forestry and agriculture, good for transport routes, hydroelectricity production, heating costs etc. etc.

I've thought that the "burp" will happen sometime between 2030 and 2040, but given this year's Arctic anomalies, I hope it will become sooner :)
Oooops missed a day in my Oct rain total, actually had 11" here in Acme WA.



Hiking on a rainy day, might as well look for waterfalls. Boulder river, WA.
Quoting 86. elioe:



I'll find it soon, fortunately. I guess I'll like it. What do I expect here in inland Southern Finland? Sudden increase in "normal" winter temperatures by some 5 - 7 degrees Celsius, autumn and spring by 1 - 2 degrees, no change in summer temperature "norm". A decrease in temperature variability during summer. Somewhat more precipitation during all seasons. Good for my personal activities, good for local forestry and agriculture, good for transport routes, hydroelectricity production, heating costs etc. etc.

I've thought that the "burp" will happen sometime between 2030 and 2040, but given this year's Arctic anomalies, I hope it will become sooner :)

Don't forget the other wonderful effects of climate change like Major cities underwater from sea level rise, intense heatwaves, extreme drought causing famine, where there's not drought extreme rains, 1000 year floods every 100 years 100 year floods every 10 years, , not to mention the destruction of coral reefs and many other ecosystems. Sounds lovely doesn't it?
Quoting 87. plantmoretrees:

Oooops missed a day in my Oct rain total, actually had 11" here in Acme WA.



Hiking on a rainy day, might as well look for waterfalls. Boulder river, WA.

That is beautiful!
90. vis0
IMPORTANT REMEMBER  the 6th (SUNDAY NOV 2016) clock is MOVED BACK, CHECK CALENDAR TO SEE IF THIS IS CORRECT. 
Quoting 85. LouisPasteur:




Only when it fits one's self righteous rant

I'm so sorry the heat has left you out of sorts.
Quoting 88. MrTornadochase:


Don't forget the other wonderful effects of climate change like Major cities underwater from sea level rise, intense heatwaves, extreme drought causing famine, where there's not drought extreme rains, 1000 year floods every 100 years 100 year floods every 10 years, , not to mention the destruction of coral reefs and many other ecosystems. Sounds lovely doesn't it?


I don't forget them, but they are not my problem. Also, they are not directly related to the "burp". They are entirely different consequences of climate change. I was discussing the change of Arctic Ocean from current state to an ice-free, non-stratified state. Actually, it's entirely plausible, that even if humans stopped all emissions today and let carbon dioxide levels decrease to pre-industrial levels, the Arctic could change its state and stay that way. The feedbacks are so strong.

On the other hand, I don't feel any guilt about the general climate change either. I live in a country, where carbon dioxide emissions per capita are already only a half of that emitted in USA, and dropping by some 5% annually. Myself, I cause even less emissions than an average Finn, since I don't have a car. I'm just left to enjoy by privileged position as a beneficiary of climate change with a good conscience :)

And then there is the question, if curbing emissions is a feasible choice, even in global perspective. The damages from "business as usual" climate change are likely to run into tens of trillions of USD. But so do the losses from shifting away from fossil fuels, before their depleted reserves make them uneconomical anyway...

And then there's iron fertilization, which, according to field studies done so far, seems to be thousands of times more cost-efficient in reducing negative effects of climate change than the shift away from fossil fuels.
Observed at:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
11:00 PM EDT Tuesday 1 November 2016

Temperature:
62.1°F
normal Min:
32.2°F
30 degrees above normal we be fine not a thing to worry about
carry on don't forget too adjust the horse blinders
so you don't see the scary things to come
Quoting 92. elioe:



I don't forget them, but they are not my problem. Also, they are not directly related to the "burp". They are entirely different consequences of climate change. I was discussing the change of Arctic Ocean from current state to an ice-free, non-stratified state. Actually, it's entirely plausible, that even if humans stopped all emissions today and let carbon dioxide levels decrease to pre-industrial levels, the Arctic could change its state and stay that way. The feedbacks are so strong.

On the other hand, I don't feel any guilt about the general climate change either. I live in a country, where carbon dioxide emissions per capita are already only a half of that emitted in USA, and dropping by some 5% annually. Myself, I cause even less emissions than an average Finn, since I don't have a car. I'm just left to enjoy by privileged position as a beneficiary of climate change with a good conscience :)

And then there is the question, if curbing emissions is a feasible choice, even in global perspective. The damages from "business as usual" climate change are likely to run into tens of trillions of USD. But so do the losses from shifting away from fossil fuels, before their depleted reserves make them uneconomical anyway...

And then there's iron fertilization, which, according to field studies done so far, seems to be thousands of times more cost-efficient in reducing negative effects of climate change than the shift away from fossil fuels.


"And then there's iron fertilization, which, according to field studies done so far, seems to be thousands of times more cost-efficient in reducing negative effects of climate change than the shift away from fossil fuels."

Link(s) please ? A quick internet search uncovers reputable sources that don't support this claim, and which unfortunately highlight many dangers associated with this technique :

A scientific critique of oceanic iron fertilization as a climate change mitigation strategy
Michelle Allsopp, David Santillo and Paul Johnston - Greenpeace Research Laboratories - Technical Note 07/2007.

Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

IRON FERTILIZATION
web.MIT.edu - 2001.

Edit : I'm not qualified to say that it will never ever work, but it appears a lot more research is needed to make it a viable perspective, which it doesn't seem to be at the moment.
Quoting 95. 999Ai2016:



1) The data presented in those links already supports my claim;

2) The opinions against iron fertilization in those links are not founded on evidence;

3) Anything associated with Greenpeace can not be considered a reputable source;

4) Iron can be distributed eg. by getting machinery installed aboard container ships;

5) I'll check links on the iron compound production costs and the additional effect of silicic acid later. Now it's already morning and I really should sleep.
Quoting 98. elioe:



1) The data presented in those links already supports my claim;

2) The opinions against iron fertilization in those links are not founded on evidence;

3) Anything associated with Greenpeace can not be considered a reputable source;

4) Iron can be distributed eg. by getting machinery installed aboard container ships;

5) I'll check links on the iron compound production costs and the additional effect of silicic acid later. Now it's already morning and I really should sleep.


1) In what way ?

2) What about yours ?

3) Why ?

4) And...?
Quoting 94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

30 degrees above normal we be fine not a thing to worry about
carry on don't forget too adjust the horse blinders
so you don't see the scary things to come


Florida is deeply concerned, if it stays this warm in Canada, snow birds won't need to go to Florida any more.
Quoting 67. Dakster:



They factored in the 9.0 EQ coming to California later this week...



I'm inclined to take this as tongue in cheek, but if not, who might be making that "prediction"? A 9.0 is practically impossible for a sideways-moving fault like the San Andreas. The only place in CA that might conceivably experience such a magnitude would be the far northwest corner where the Cascadia Subduction Zone begins.
Quoting 101. BayFog:


I'm inclined to take this as tongue in cheek, but if not, who might be making that "prediction"? A 9.0 is practically impossible for a sideways-moving fault like the San Andreas. The only place in CA that might conceivably experience such a magnitude would be the far northwest corner where the Cascadia Subduction Zone begins.


It was, he was giving me grief earlier...
Quoting 101. BayFog:


I'm inclined to take this as tongue in cheek, but if not, who might be making that "prediction"? A 9.0 is practically impossible for a sideways-moving fault like the San Andreas. The only place in CA that might conceivably experience such a magnitude would be the far northwest corner where the Cascadia Subduction Zone begins.
ok lets make it an 8.9 instead that better I am heading outside too stomp my foot upon the ground

J/K
ya scare yet ped
Quoting 104. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya scare yet ped


Nope.... later peeps ...time for sleep....
Problem began: Tue Nov 1 22:03:02 PDT 2016.
and just as I post the earthquake map it goes offline weird
night ped see ya laters
M 4.5 - 14km ESE of Pawnee, Oklahoma

Time
2016-11-02 04:26:54 (UTC)
Location
36.308 N 96.647 W
Depth
2.6 km

Source / backup link : USGS latest earthquakes map
listen to quake here

Link
I've been following this site for the first time in years since Matthew was a vague blob wannabe way off east of the Caribbean, and introduced a friend who has a vested interest in Caribbean weather in this site plus several others I found ages ago, back when I was doing online research on tropical cyclones for a story I was writing.

Anyway, the friend with the vested interest is from Aruba, and his family has been there for generations, so that's easy to figure, and we still discuss a lot of tropical and subtropical weather, anywhere. He's the one who introduced me to Catabumbo storms, in fact, because they do get a lot of those that blow into the ABC islands this time of year. He posted me a radar screenshot from the Curacao weather site Link in a Skype chat, so not sure how to upload a pic that's been download and not a web link. Ah, well.





My wunderground forecast for the next week is highlighting Sunday November 6th as election day. It's Tuesday November 8th of course. Would be good to fix that I think.
Quoting 109. 999Ai2016:

M 4.5 - 14km ESE of Pawnee, Oklahoma

Time
2016-11-02 04:26:54 (UTC)
Location
36.308 N 96.647 W
Depth
2.6 km

Source / backup link : USGS latest earthquakes map


Yeah felt that one here in Stillwater. Not as bad as the 5 experienced a few months back, but definitely a decent roller.

Quoting 98. elioe:



1) The data presented in those links already supports my claim;

2) The opinions against iron fertilization in those links are not founded on evidence;
3) Anything associated with Greenpeace can not be considered a reputable source;

4) Iron can be distributed eg. by getting machinery installed aboard container ships;

5) I'll check links on the iron compound production costs and the additional effect of silicic acid later. Now it's already morning and I really should sleep.


Would disagree with 3. Your letting your personal bias interfere with truly assessing what was presented. The Greenpeace link does provide a number of studies conducted on iron fertilization at sea. Of course, they may be "cherry picking" studies, but that gives a start at some of the results that have been found. You don't have to rely upon Greenpeace's interpretation of the study's results.

What I am more interested in is the amount of iron that would have to be used, the additional CO2 costs associated with mining that amount of iron and transporting it via ocean vessels, and where exactly they would be traversing. What would the economic costs be?
The chemistry involved is complex and the "unintended" consequences (those "unknown unknowns") would be quite challenging to reverse/mitigate.

Better to simply reduce/eliminate as much CO2 emissions as possible, and and adapt to what we have wrought already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Wtf

And some of the models had a cat 6 here

Does anyone know what's going on
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 2 2016
==============================

The low pressure area over southern Andaman Sea became well marked low yesterday evening and now lies over southeastern Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during next 12 hours, subsequently it is very likely to intensify further while moving northwestwards.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T1.0 centered near12.3N 91.5E. The 24 hours animation of satellite imagery indicate gradual organization of convection and increase in depth of convection. The cloud top temperature is about -83C.The convection shows banding pattern.The dominant banding approaches towards the center from northeast.

The estimated central pressure is 1007 hPa and maximum sustained wind is 15-20 knots. Latest scatterometer observations indicate that winds are higher in northern sector about 20-25 knots. In southern sector, it is about 10-15kts.Winds are higher in northern sector due to prevailing northeast monsoon circulation. The upper tropospheric ridge is around 17.0N and hence the winds are southeasterly over the region of low pressure system. The vertical wind shear is 5-15 knots (low to moderate) around the system center and towards southwest and adjoining central Bay of Bengal. It increases towards north. The upper level divergence is about 30x10-5s-1 and lower level convergence is about 10x10-5s-1 around the system center.The relative vorticity at 850 HPA is around (60-80)x10-6s-1.The Madden-Julian oscillation index lies in phase 5. It will enter into phase 4 during next 3 days.This condition is favorable for intensification of system. Sea surface temperature is 29-30C. The ocean thermal energy is about 6080kj/cm2 around the system center over central Bay of Bengal.It is relatively higher over west central Bay of Bengal (60-80) off northern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha coast. It is less than 50kj/cm2 over northern Bay of Bengal. Genesis potential parameters indicate very good probability of intensification into a cyclonic storm during next 48 hours majority of the models indicate intensification of the well marked low into depression during next 24 hrs and further into a cyclonic storm while moving northwestwards to west central Bay of Bengal by November 4th. The models are unanimous about the recurvature of the system from 4th towards northeast reaching Bangladesh coast November 6th, skirting east coast of India.
Quoting 86. elioe:



I'll find it soon, fortunately. I guess I'll like it. What do I expect here in inland Southern Finland? Sudden increase in "normal" winter temperatures by some 5 - 7 degrees Celsius, autumn and spring by 1 - 2 degrees, no change in summer temperature "norm". A decrease in temperature variability during summer. Somewhat more precipitation during all seasons. Good for my personal activities, good for local forestry and agriculture, good for transport routes, hydroelectricity production, heating costs etc. etc.

I've thought that the "burp" will happen sometime between 2030 and 2040, but given this year's Arctic anomalies, I hope it will become sooner :)


That'll be great for you!...on average. It's unlikely that that new average will be beneficial since extreme events will occur more frequently. These will tend to wipe out some, perhaps all, of the benefits.

I should also point out that since your nation has to import food, you will either starve or pay much, much more to feed yourselves since many of the most vulnerable areas globally are big food-producing regions. In the end, CC will severely negatively affect you...but at least your weather will be good, eh?
ECMWF develops our Atlantic AOI into a high-latitude strong subtropical storm. Not expected to impact land but nonetheless we could be getting Otto by this weekend, which would probably be the last storm of the season if it develops.
Quoting 117. Misanthroptimist:



That'll be great for you!...on average. It's unlikely that that new average will be beneficial since extreme events will occur more frequently. These will tend to wipe out some, perhaps all, of the benefits.

I should also point out that since your nation has to import food, you will either starve or pay much, much more to feed yourselves since many of the most vulnerable areas globally are big food-producing regions. In the end, CC will severely negatively affect you...but at least your weather will be good, eh?
You write like you have crystal ball that shows the future of Finland. Your predictions are not facts.
Quoting 119. PensacolaDoug:

You write like you have crystal ball that shows the future of Finland. Your predictions are not facts.

It is a fact that taiga ground is poor ground. Disappear the taiga and the land looks good, it just doesn't give. Fact. Not prediction. And yes, this will pay out for Finland too.
NOAA Global Climate Change Indicators


Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

😯✌😁

CaribBoy getting wet? Link

Quoting 42. BobHenson:


No commercial influence--just competing priorities! We'll get to it in the very near future. A fascinating storm indeed.

Looking forward to it :-)

Medicane Delivers Swell to Israel
Unique weather event in Mediterranean Sea batters Crete, sends swell around the Med
By Charlie Hutcherson, Published:November 1, 2016
Israel will see healthy swell midweek, courtesy of an uncommon storm event that has tracked east through the Mediterranean Sea. ...

BTW, as some reports say, "Rolf" in 2011 had been the last medicane, this isn't right. Must have been Qendresa 7./8. November 2014. As far as I remember, doc has mentioned the system in his blog back then.
Here a youtube loop of Qendresa: Link
And a report from EuroNews: Link
Good Morning Folks; the West-Pac is on the move:



And the Noaa Winter outlook from Oct 20th; the drought conditions for the AL/TN/Georgia Tri-State area stand to get much worse if this forecast verifies:

U.S. Drought Monitor forSoutheast
2016 winter outlook - precipitation
2016 winter outlook - temperature

 
Did we just get a ton of doomsday posts out of the blue?

Quoting 127. kingcounty1:

Did we just get a ton of doomsday posts out of the blue?

No; just noting what has become the new norm around the world weather-wise...............................
could not of said it any better pensacola. good luck predicting the worlds future.
Quoting 119. PensacolaDoug:

You write like you have crystal ball that shows the future of Finland. Your predictions are not facts.

Please provide evidence that Finland feeds itself. TIA.

If, as I state, Finland does not feed itself, then my predictions are inevitable.
Quoting 129. islander101010:

could not of said it any better pensacola. good luck predicting the worlds future.

Sure, dream on.
You'll have to eat dreamt food too, of course (be fair).
Quoting 124. barbamz:


BTW, as some reports say, "Rolf" in 2011 had been the last medicane, this isn't right. Must have been Qendresa 7./8. November 2014. As far as I remember, doc has mentioned the system in his blog back then.
Here a youtube loop of Qendresa: Link
And a report from EuroNews: Link


I think that Rolf was the last tropical cyclone, because Qendresa was more likely subtropical. On November 7, it was still attached to the frontal system, and later weakened rapidly as became separated from it. Also the cyclone's low level PV-tower was linked to the upper level potential vorticity, but Rolf's PV-tower didn't.
I have been writing my diploma thesis from tropical-like mediterranean cyclone, and I studied both cyclone in detail (along with 2 another cyclone). I also wrote a 'tropical cyclone report' from Rolf and Qendresa, which are available here (I hope the links are OK, from Qendresa I haven't made the satellite and reanalysis animation yet).
Link
Link

I also will be writing a blog from Trixie, perhaps today or at the latest tomorrow.
Quoting 133. Zivipotty:

I have been writing my diploma thesis from tropical-like mediterranean cyclone, and I studied both cyclone in detail (along with 2 another cyclone). ...

Wow, thank you! Nice work. I sure will not argue with an expert of medicanes :-)

Edit: CIMSS satellite blog had an article about "Trixie" as well.
Some nice pictures and loops.
135. elioe
Quoting 117. Misanthroptimist:

[...] since your nation has to import food [...]


Completely false. Currently we import food, because the land is often more profitable as a forest than as a field. Forest needs less labor done on it than a field. The wages of possible agricultural workers would be high, and more to the south eg. in Germany, common cereal yields per hectare are roughly twice the amount here, since there is a much more hospitable climate. Having a common market with Central Europe, our agriculture simply can't compete. But less than 10% of land it currently used in agriculture, allowing output to increase dramatically in case of disruption in imports.

Quoting 120. cRRKampen:


It is a fact that taiga ground is poor ground. Disappear the taiga and the land looks good, it just doesn't give. Fact. Not prediction. And yes, this will pay out for Finland too.



Now I guess that Finland doesn't actually exist. I must have been dreaming all my life. And all those history books, telling that agriculture was widespread around the country already in Middle Ages... they must have been fossil fuel industry -funded propaganda. Because we have oracles here that wisely inform me, that the land doesn't give. The end.

Although e.g. the Wikipedia article about "taiga" shows Finland as a continuous taiga, it doesn't tell anything about soil quality. Currently, much of the forest is on top of land, that had been already used in farming for more than thousand years, before international competition has made it more feasible as a forest, an ongoing process since 1970's. Then there are the lands, which originally were nutrient-rich wetlands. And the lands, which were nutrient-poor wetlands. There are the moraine ridges, with a thin layer of soil above. And there are places, where the surface is simply granite, no soil or even sand covering it. You can't generalize the quality of soil. All the way to tundra climate region, there are wetlands with lots of nutrients, having a peat thickness of multiple meters, having accumulated all the time from last Ice Age.

And regarding comment 132: since it seems we already resort to name-calling, this discussion is over for me with this comment.
Quoting 123. pingon:

CaribBoy getting wet? Link




1.4" at best last 36 hours... but overall most places are under 1"... not so wet.

St Kitts, Nevis and Barbuda got much more (4-5" in Nevis...)

The most upsetting fact is while the system came from the north, islands very far south like Martinique still got much more rain than us (over 5") :/ Of course the opposite doesn't work when a boring low rider move at 13N, the rain doesn't get far to the north (matthew)
Dry year overall...
Quoting 135. elioe:



Completely false. Currently we import food, because the land is often more profitable as a forest than as a field. Forest needs less labor done on it than a field. The wages of possible agricultural workers would be high, and more to the south eg. in Germany, common cereal yields per hectare are roughly twice the amount here, since there is a much more hospitable climate. Having a common market with Central Europe, our agriculture simply can't compete. But less than 10% of land it currently used in agriculture, allowing output to increase dramatically in case of disruption in imports.



Now I guess that Finland doesn't actually exist. I must have been dreaming all my life. And all those history books, telling that agriculture was widespread around the country already in Middle Ages... they must have been fossil fuel industry -funded propaganda. Because we have oracles here that wisely inform me, that the land doesn't give. The end.

Although e.g. the Wikipedia article about "taiga" shows Finland as a continuous taiga, it doesn't tell anything about soil quality. Currently, much of the forest is on top of land, that had been already used in farming for more than thousand years, before international competition has made it more feasible as a forest, an ongoing process since 1970's. Then there are the lands, which originally were nutrient-rich wetlands. And the lands, which were nutrient-poor wetlands. There are the moraine ridges, with a thin layer of soil above. And there are places, where the surface is simply granite, no soil or even sand covering it. You can't generalize the quality of soil. All the way to tundra climate region, there are wetlands with lots of nutrients, having a peat thickness of multiple meters, having accumulated all the time from last Ice Age.

And regarding comment 132: since it seems we already resort to name-calling, this discussion is over for me with this comment.

My bad. So I just read into the matter. Soils in Finland are indeed not your typical taiga podsols. Fertile clay deposits abound.
So Finland may be one of the later countries to get the downside of climate change. Still, it is already suffering a little bit from climate change results elsewhere in the world, by way of migrants from Maghreb and Levant. All is connected.
Quoting 136. CaribBoy:



1.4" at best last 36 hours... but overall most places are under 1"... not so wet.

St Kitts, Nevis and Barbuda got much more (4-5" in Nevis...)

The most upsetting fact is while the system came from the north, islands very far south like Martinique still got much more rain than us (over 5") :/ Of course the opposite doesn't work when a boring low rider move at 13N, the rain doesn't get far to the north (matthew)

Well the Great Pumpkin didn't help; time to call on Santa. You're not on the Island of Misfit Toys, are you?
140. OKsky
Don't forget that as resources shift around due to climate change, no one is going anywhere. We are all on this rock together and will be knocking on your door for food when it runs out elsewhere. I could be wrong, but I suspect that the most lethal side-effect of rising CO2 will be the bombs dropped everywhere.
141. elioe
Quoting 138. cRRKampen:


My bad. So I just read into the matter. Soils in Finland are indeed not your typical taiga podsols. Fertile clay deposits abound.
So Finland may be one of the later countries to get the downside of climate change. Still, it is already suffering a little bit from climate change results elsewhere in the world, by way of migrants from Maghreb and Levant. All is connected.


Well, I disagree about the reasons of immigration from Maghreb and Levant. And since I disagree, my views about that are outside the scope of acceptable issues to be discussed on this blog, so I won't explain further. I do expect climate refugees to come here in the future, but I expect them to come primarily from the Netherlands. If such times indeed come, I wish you and your countrymen welcome here. By the end of century, Finland should be able to produce food for tens of millions :)
Link
Quoting 140. OKsky:

Don't forget that as resources shift around due to climate change, no one is going anywhere. We are all on this rock together and will be knocking on your door for food when it runs out elsewhere. I could be wrong, but I suspect that the most lethal side-effect of rising CO2 will be the bombs dropped everywhere.


Looking at global warming as if it is the biggest threat to humanity is like standing on the tracks at a railroad crossing looking at a car coming from a mile down the road when a giant freight train is about 10 feet away going a hundred miles an hour. Click the link above to see that train coming........

143. OKsky
Quoting 142. RichardBLong:



Looking at global warming as if it is the biggest threat to humanity is like standing on the tracks at a railroad crossing looking at a car coming from a mile down the road when a giant freight train is about 10 feet away going a hundred miles an hour. The graph below represents that train...........




I must apologize, you quoted me, but are you responding to me? What are you talking about? What does the train represent? What graph below? lol, what are you talking about?


EDIT: ooooh ok, (the link wasn't included at first.. or the site bugged out) So you are worried about population growth? I have good news for you then... populations plateau at a certain level of development then they go into decline. Of course if CC prevents development then I guess we could both be "right" in the end. :)

Here is a link showing what I am going on about.
Quoting 142. RichardBLong:

Link

Looking at global warming as if it is the biggest threat to humanity is like standing on the tracks at a railroad crossing looking at a car coming from a mile down the road when a giant freight train is about 10 feet away going a hundred miles an hour. Click the link above to see that train coming........




That would be a better description of a giant asteroid crashing into the Earth wiping out all life in a blink of an eye.
Quoting 140. OKsky:

Don't forget that as resources shift around due to climate change, no one is going anywhere. We are all on this rock together and will be knocking on your door for food when it runs out elsewhere. I could be wrong, but I suspect that the most lethal side-effect of rising CO2 will be the bombs dropped everywhere.

Exactly what played out per the Levant hyperdrought.
Mon Dieu.
Quoting 141. elioe:



Well, I disagree about the reasons of immigration from Maghreb and Levant. And since I disagree, my views about that are outside the scope of acceptable issues to be discussed on this blog, so I won't explain further. I do expect climate refugees to come here in the future, but I expect them to come primarily from the Netherlands. If such times indeed come, I wish you and your countrymen welcome here. By the end of century, Finland should be able to produce food for tens of millions :)

You may wait for the 650 million climate refugee mark (a factor 10-20 of today's). Disagreeing doesn't change the fact. Raw precipitation numbers rule.
Quoting 141. elioe:



Well, I disagree about the reasons of immigration from Maghreb and Levant. And since I disagree, my views about that are outside the scope of acceptable issues to be discussed on this blog, so I won't explain further. I do expect climate refugees to come here in the future, but I expect them to come primarily from the Netherlands. If such times indeed come, I wish you and your countrymen welcome here. By the end of century, Finland should be able to produce food for tens of millions :)

I am, in fact, aiming for Troms...
As for the Netherlands, I'm clamouring for our turn for the millenium floods here. They could save the country and help save global climate a little bit. In 20 years they'll only wipe it out, the river delta will have to recede, and ten million Dutchies will have to go, indeed. As well as some of the worlds richest soils.

(sorry, should've posted those two in one)
Big waves are forecast for the West Coast this week...

These are in meters..


All we need to do is figure out how to control the Jet streams -right?
Regardless of whether the population is 10 Bn or 15 Bn in 2050 (Richard Long/OKSky), it is unsustainable. We are in the middle of a mass extinction event, and it is caused by an excess of humans grappling for sustenance - i.e. habitat destruction.

We need to decline the population rather than allow it to keep growing. And a more humane method than constant war would be really nice.
KRAL(Riverside Airport)

Mild Santa Ana wind event over the next few days, avg. is 78/50, low was 54.5F
Quoting 152. Phatkhat:

Regardless of whether the population is 10 Bn or 15 Bn in 2050 (Richard Long/OKSky), it is unsustainable. We are in the middle of a mass extinction event, and it is caused by an excess of humans grappling for sustenance - i.e. habitat destruction.

We need to decline the population rather than allow it to keep growing. And a more humane method than constant war would be really nice.

A humane method of mass population reduction. hmmm, a that's a thought but a bit of an oxymoron, no? Mass sterilization would be the most humane I suppose. That could in badly though... (at least for humankind).
155. OKsky
Quoting 154. JNFlori30A:


A humane method of mass population reduction. hmmm, a that's a thought but a bit of an oxymoron, no? Mass sterilization would be the most humane I suppose. That could in badly though... (at least for humankind).


As I mentioned before, it is known that developed countries naturally start to decline in population. Pulling up poor countries to our level of development is a way out of the population problem, however that also implies increased consumption. Personally Im going to start sacrificing chickens to Elon Musk, learn finnish and get into black metal. =P
Interesting article in Science (I do not have access to the article yet) as to the issue of climate models and the summary is below. Can someone on here (who understands something about weather modeling and the equations) break it down in plain english? I am curious as to the issue of clouds raised in this blurb and thinking that jet stream position/variation is also one of those very fine grain issues that cannot be modeled accurately?

Science  28 Oct 2016:
Vol. 354, Issue 6311, pp. 401-402
DOI: 10.1126/science.354.6311.401
Climate models render as much as they can by applying the laws of physics to imaginary boxes tens of kilometers a side. But some processes, like cloud formation, are too fine-grained for that, and so modelers use "parameterizations": equations meant to approximate their effects. For years, climate scientists have tuned their parameterizations so that the model overall matches climate records. But fearing criticism by climate skeptics, they have largely kept quiet about how they tune their models, and by how much. That is now changing. By writing up tuning strategies and making them publicly available for the first time, groups hope to learn how to make their predictions more reliable—and more transparent.

In the forecastable future, today will be the last day for 80-temp in western Oklahoma.
Quoting 130. Misanthroptimist:


Please provide evidence that Finland feeds itself. TIA.

If, as I state, Finland does not feed itself, then my predictions are inevitable.
Only if Finland, when faced with the need, is unable to feed itself. If the Finns are capable of feeding themselves, your "cup of prediction" holds not water.
Ps. And that goes for any country, any berg (burgh) any hamlet, any individual.
When was the last time the Planet had a single Global cool biased monthly avg temp?

🙋
Quoting 159. Patrap:

When was the last time the Planet had a single Global cool biased monthly avg temp?

🙋


34 years ago.


😵😱😟😔😫😭
Quoting 156. weathermanwannabe:

Interesting article in Science (I do not have access to the article yet) as to the issue of climate models and the summary is below. Can someone on here (who understands something about weather modeling and the equations) break it down in plain english? I am curious as to the issue of clouds raised in this blurb and thinking that jet stream position/variation is also one of those very fine grain issues that cannot be modeled accurately?

Science  28 Oct 2016:
Vol. 354, Issue 6311, pp. 401-402
DOI: 10.1126/science.354.6311.401
Climate models render as much as they can by applying the laws of physics to imaginary boxes tens of kilometers a side. But some processes, like cloud formation, are too fine-grained for that, and so modelers use "parameterizations": equations meant to approximate their effects. For years, climate scientists have tuned their parameterizations so that the model overall matches climate records. But fearing criticism by climate skeptics, they have largely kept quiet about how they tune their models, and by how much. That is now changing. By writing up tuning strategies and making them publicly available for the first time, groups hope to learn how to make their predictions more reliable—and more transparent.




The jet stream has been resolvable by models since the 1970s. Ageostrophic circulations around it have been well captured by models since the early 1980s. It is a synoptic scale feature along its long axis (5000+km) and small synoptic to very large mesoscale feature across its axis (500km or so).
Political bias at NOAA
Link
I had the distinct honor to speak to Viz0 via phone this morning in New York city.

He is a cool cat and graciously offered to direct my Sons band to their gig part of town.

They have a greeter meeting them tomorrow as they are traveling to NYC via Amtrak from New Orleans.

If you want to see a great Band who plays weekly at the House of Blues on Decatur street here in the French Quarter every Tues night at their Voodoo Garden....

They will b performing 3 gigs at 3 different venues.

Michael Liuzza and Company NYC playbill


cut single,Royal Street
165. OKsky
Quoting 163. westernmob:

Political bias at NOAA
Link


The president of a GOP think tank writes an opinion piece about NOAA political bias? Im shocked!! LOL
only a 20% chance of turning into Otto but we got a yellow.


Funny haha... then we always get nothing or just a few drops ://
Quoting 142. RichardBLong:
"Looking at global warming as if it is the biggest threat to humanity is like standing on the tracks at a railroad crossing looking at a car coming from a mile down the road when a giant freight train is about 10 feet away going a hundred miles an hour. Click the link above to see that train coming........"

You're right. An orange tyrant has a slim chance of getting elected. Question: Why do serial climate deniers humiliated off the blog that need to start afresh pick names like RichardBLong?
Quoting 157. Barefootontherocks:

In the forecastable future, today will be the last day for 80-temp in western Oklahoma.Only if Finland, when faced with the need, is unable to feed itself. If the Finns are capable of feeding themselves, your "cup of prediction" holds not water.

But I am, in fact, right. Elioe concedes that, though he hides it in how much agricultural land there could be if they chopped down the forests. Even if that is correct (and I believe he is right on that) the facts remain that Finns will starve or go broke. That is because droughts rarely give enough prior warning to allow the several years or more necessary to turn all that forest land into actual farmland.

They may get to enjoy the weather, but there will be fewer of them and/or they will be poorer. Of course, even that's dependent upon how things are going in Russia. The Russians just might appropriate all that farmland for themselves if agriculture goes belly up in their neck of the woods.

The world is highly interdependent now. If certain countries go down, we all go down -partially or totally.
Quoting 163. westernmob:

Political bias at NOAA
Link

Guess which side the oil companies fund. C'mon, take a wild guess.

Oh, and those "studies" are funded entirely on the basis of getting the conclusions they want. ;-)
Japanese H-IIA rocket launches Himawari 9 satellite
November 1, 2016 by William Graham
Japan has launched the Himawari 9 weather satellite on Wednesday afternoon local time, with the aid of its H-IIA rocket. Liftoff from the Tanegashima Space Centre, in Japan’s Osumi Islands, was on schedule at 15:20 local time (06:20 UTC), which was the opening of an available window of two-hour, 58-minutes.
Himawari 9 is the second of two third-generation satellites in Japan’s Himawari weather-monitoring series. Alongside Himawari 8, which was launched in October 2014, it is expected to provide the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Ministry of Transport with observational data into the late 2020s.
Himawari – meaning sunflower – is a series of spacecraft which began in July 1977 with the launch of Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 1 (GMS-1) which took on the name Himawari after reaching orbit. ...

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 171. barbamz:

Japanese H-IIA rocket launches Himawari 9 satellite
November 1, 2016 by William Graham
Japan has launched the Himawari 9 weather satellite on Wednesday afternoon local time, with the aid of its H-IIA rocket. Liftoff from the Tanegashima Space Centre, in Japan’s Osumi Islands, was on schedule at 15:20 local time (06:20 UTC), which was the opening of an available window of two-hour, 58-minutes.
Himawari 9 is the second of two third-generation satellites in Japan’s Himawari weather-monitoring series. Alongside Himawari 8, which was launched in October 2014, it is expected to provide the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Ministry of Transport with observational data into the late 2020s.
Himawari – meaning sunflower – is a series of spacecraft which began in July 1977 with the launch of Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 1 (GMS-1) which took on the name Himawari after reaching orbit. ...

Whole article see link above.


I noticed the JMA model has been added to the Cyclone Phase Evolution webpage this year. Any idea as to how well it has performed in recent history?
Quoting 172. fmbill:

I noticed the JMA model has been added to the Cyclone Phase Evolution webpage this year. Any idea as to how well it has performed in recent history?

I don't know. But you may ask 1900hurricane who is specializing in the WPAC. Maybe he knows?
Quoting 166. islander101010:

only a 20% chance of turning into Otto but we got a yellow.


moving out to sea.... next
Quoting 101. BayFog:


I'm inclined to take this as tongue in cheek, but if not, who might be making that "prediction"? A 9.0 is practically impossible for a sideways-moving fault like the San Andreas. The only place in CA that might conceivably experience such a magnitude would be the far northwest corner where the Cascadia Subduction Zone begins.


Yeah, I was playing with Pedley because of his weather... Pedley knew I wasn't serious about it.

#156 Weathermanwannabe

There is an interesting discussion about 'tuning' models on Realclimate at the moment, worth a look:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201 6/10/tuning-in-to-climate-models/

In my own research areas, largely focused on topics in geomorphology, landscape processes and landscape evolution, and also in hydrology and flooding, we have to use models all the time. Generally I try to stick to calibrating a model rather than 'tuning' it, as the latter might suggest over-fitting or a preference for one particular calibration metric over another. There may be good reasons for that, of course, based in physics or chemistry, or just making sure a good calibration fit is not giving rise to unrealistic values in some of the state variables for some reason. Greater openness about this in climate modelling has to be a good thing, however difficult it may make things for the researchers in the short term. Vexatious criticisms are sometimes very hard to deal with but we just have to try to put our arguments across in an informative and respectful manner, and keep trying ...

Quoting 165. OKsky:



The president of a GOP think tank writes an opinion piece about NOAA political bias? Im shocked!! LOL



Another science denier and his accompanying pop-up minions to beat down with facts, is all that says to me. Not enough hours in the day!
Just had a brief storm come through with several lightning strikes that produced thunder that sounded like someone was shooting a cannon right next to my house. Weird event for my area (SE Michigan) this time of year.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I believe the Earth has a balance to it, the yin and the yang so to speak. While it is a dry and warm fall here (the yin), check out what Russia (the yang) is enduring at the same time and be thankful that its not us..........at least not yet.

Russia – Record snow covers houses up to the roofs –

https://www.sott.net/article/332807-Animals-slaug hted-due-to-record-snowfall-with-five-times-the-mo nthly-normal-precipitation-in-Yakutia-Russia
181. OKsky
Quoting 180. RichardBLong:

I believe the Earth has a balance to it, the yin and the yang so to speak. While it is a dry and warm fall here (the yin), check out what Russia (the yang) is enduring at the same time and be thankful that its not us..........at least not yet.

Russia – Record snow covers houses up to the roofs –

https://www.sott.net/article/332807-Animals-slaug hted-due-to-record-snowfall-with-five-times-the-mo nthly-normal-precipitation-in-Yakutia-Russia


sure... yet for some reason (cough cough co2ugh) when you avg out the "yin" and "yang" it gets more and more "yiny" every year. Slice and dice however you want.... The planet is getting warmer, dude.
Quoting 169. Misanthroptimist:


But I am, in fact, right. Elioe concedes that, though he hides it in how much agricultural land there could be if they chopped down the forests. Even if that is correct (and I believe he is right on that) the facts remain that Finns will starve or go broke. That is because droughts rarely give enough prior warning to allow the several years or more necessary to turn all that forest land into actual farmland.

They may get to enjoy the weather, but there will be fewer of them and/or they will be poorer. Of course, even that's dependent upon how things are going in Russia. The Russians just might appropriate all that farmland for themselves if agriculture goes belly up in their neck of the woods.

The world is highly interdependent now. If certain countries go down, we all go down -partially or totally.
What's true is this: No one on the face of Earth knows what will happen.

You may be right. So may eloie. So may another. Whatever the eventual outcomes, the object of the game is survival, not riches, or being "right"!
Quoting 101. BayFog:


I'm inclined to take this as tongue in cheek, but if not, who might be making that "prediction"? A 9.0 is practically impossible for a sideways-moving fault like the San Andreas. The only place in CA that might conceivably experience such a magnitude would be the far northwest corner where the Cascadia Subduction Zone begins.
BayFog, I did not find a map at the site linked below for the area I think you are thinking about. Mt Lassen northward. Just wanted to throw in something my aged brain remembers learning way back when. East to west faults can produce stronger earthquakes than faults that run north and south as San Andreas does. Maybe not so. I have never put the prof's words to a test.

Maybe watch out for the faults up in the San Berdnardino Mountains and westward, PedleyCA!
;)
Click image for maps page with details on individual faults


Click here for earthquake fault source page.

Image credit: cccarto.com - Excellent; many maps of many things including historic Hawai'ian pineapple fields!

(edited to add more specific San Bernardino area fault map and link)
Ps. For those who may be interested, a large part of Los Angeles area fault map from same source linked at comment 183. Clickable to source page. On source page, each fault is clickable for details.

185. vis0
Posted in Feb 2016 and ~may 2016 that Cubs would win championship where's my cookie! gonna have to change my avatar to Susan Lucci ...w/ a mustachio.

 

Oh BTW congrats to Grothar and ME!

 




Grothars OBs on the N of Hispaniola  area i thought had fully blended with an area i thought was to be the next TS    but that main area is swirling south of Puerto Rico its  other portion is still trying to blend with area i choose. area i choose  not as defined yet has been mentioned earlier by other members and NHC has a yellow "X"  on "it".

As to yesterdays pick not as good missed on the TS i thought might form off the NE  though there still is a weird LOW ~350+ miles East of Long Island, NY most eastern tip...but its at least a swirl.
 

BTW TWI (in the animation NOT real life) is alright just has some water in his ear...pod.

 
CREDIT - careful images yanked did not visit sites to cap them so sites are not officially approved:: https://www.colourbox.com/vector/sailor-rowing-boa t-sketch-icon-vector-19501331,
 

(picking nose [wikkipedia]) http://www.plognark.com/node/109

back to OBs on weather  and just 'cause its cooler or even cold make sure you check the long term trend which shows a planet becoming warmer too fast to allow normal mutations to take hold (begin) .  When an animal cannot acclimate to its surroundings via mutations in time, that animal becomes history and in Earths case it could loose the ability to sustain life therefore a human being comeback becomes less likely.
186. vis0

Quoting 179. WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has
created
.
a new entry.
oh snap an AM entry someone forgot to decaffeinate the coffee? still a good and informative "by the TVs glow" read...
If the Southeast needs water, I'm sorry, but there is no help from The Front Range of Colorado. We are reeling after several months with virtually ZERO rainfall. Our reservoirs are still in good shape thanks to a robust Spring snowfall, but we are rapidly slipping into drought with this never-ending warm and dry ridge that has been parked over the Rockies for months! We need help too!