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September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2010

September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.

U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.

September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

720
TCNA21 RJTD 170600
CCAA 17060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17185 11262 11344 270// 92613=

06:00 AM UTC October 17 2010
Super Typhoon Megi (1013/15W/STY 17)
18.5N 126.2E
Dvorak Intensity: 7.0
Dear lord, jason... what a monster! We can only hope it tries to go through an EWRC right before it hits land, or somehow weakens, otherwise.

Gust to almost 200 mph... my god. :(
Invest 99L: the last 24hours in 6hour line-segments

Looks like NHC thinks it finally has a good center fix:
the 06amGMT was posted before the hour when it's usually posted 45minutes or more after the hour;
and a LARGE change in the position nearly perpendicular to the previous curvature.

Expect high orange from the NHC's 2amEDT TropicalWeatherOutlook, then some coordinate revisions on the 12pmGMT ATCF to smooth out the curvature.

Possibly even a TropicalDepression called on an 8amEDT NHC.Advisory. Though the probability of that remains low, I've a feeling that if&when 99L takes off, it's gonna organize&strengthen fast.
Quoting Skyepony:
The 00Z Early-cycle intensity guidance is all for 99L being named..


Not only do they support being named they also support 99L becoming Hurricane Richard at some point. There's only one model below Cat 1 status and that's only by 2-3 knots.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 17 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (910 hPa) located at 18.5N 126.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
270 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
220 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 121.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.1N 117.6E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.3N 115.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Good evening/good morning. I posted another article on the Ft Worth Weather Examiner Link. I invite everyone to take a look :O)!

Oh, I see we have 99L in the far SW Caribbean Sea. The TWO has it at 20%, the next several days will be rather interesting!
I shuddered...
99L slowly percolating in the SW Caribbean Sea

Quoting MoltenIce:
I shuddered...


My mom is on a flight to the Philippines right now as we speak, leaving from Guam to Manila. Luckily, after landing in Manila, she will head to her final destination which is closer to the southern end of the Philippines. Still, I hope to God she comes back home safe and sound.
Here is the pic on the wunderground tropical homepage for global SSTs. However, I changed it so that all temps above 26C -> 79F are red, and all above 85F are black.

It gives you a much better idea of how warm the atlantic still is, as well as the west pacific.

Also, the ridiculous effects of ocean currents! You got water barely above 60F at the equator off of South America, and water of 70F 400 miles south of South Africa (40 degrees south). Pretty insane.




google earth recon data for ST Megi http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/west/archive/storm.cgi?year=2010&storm=Megi&product=URPA12
Whoaaa!!!

""
Quoting robert88:
Whoaaa!!!

""


Perfect CDO, perfect structure. Not often you see that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Perfect CDO, perfect structure. Not often you see that.


Beautiful but going to be a very deadly storm.
Quoting robert88:


Beautiful but going to be a very deadly storm.


Aye.
517. IKE
Possible Development in Caribbean

Oct 17, 2010 5:30 AM


Most of the Atlantic basin is quiet this weekend, but AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean. Widespread thunderstorm activity is noted across this area of the Caribbean in association with a broad area of low pressure. Warm waters and light wind shear, both favorable for developing tropical systems, are present over this portion of the Caribbean. Thus, tropical development is possible in the region through early next week. The steering flow would likely take this tropical feature into Central America sometime next week. However, a piece of the system could break away come north toward Cuba, but strong westerly winds aloft across the Gulf would cause a hostile environment for development.

Elsewhere, conditions are very quiet with no significant threats for tropical development through the end of the weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

..............................................

6Z GFS@ 144 hours takes the energy from 99L into the east-Pac...


Anyone know why the 2 AM TWO wasn't released?
519. IKE
For some reason that link never updated.


Here.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
WESTERN PANAMA IS PRODUCING LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
520. IKE
Looks like 99L would get forced west by a building ridge of high pressure over the GOM by the end of next week. The high builds in after the trough moves through(about Wednesday)....

144 hour GFS...




168 hour GFS...

73 warm degrees on the east coast of C FL right now. LA NINA is in full swing considering our highs in C FL will be near 90 next week.
With no cool air in sight for FL it really begs the question that we will most likely see tropical developement deep into November.
Look how strong is the wind in Cagayan:

(during Megi's wrath)
Quoting Vincent4989:
Look how strong is the wind in Cagayan:

(during Megi's wrath)

where did you get that picture from? link please
Quoting AussieStorm:

where did you get that picture from? link please
Good morning/evening Aussie. I was thinking of you last night as I haven't seen you on here for a while. I know your wife's family is in the Philippines and pray they remain safe from Megi.
It was fairly easy to see with HP to the N there was no way 99L was going to have a chance to pull a Paula. Global models have been consistently showing strong HP building in over the GOM. I think Levi is a very smart guy and i enjoy watching his videos but i think he just over analyzed this one. It's best sometimes just to look at the simple pieces of the puzzle.
Strong convection starting to wrap around the eye of MEGI

""
Actually wrong! THe euro ensembles have this in the NW Caribbean then crossing S FL at day 10. NHC seems to agree as well with taking this NW and infact we may have a center relocation further NE later today based on this below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
Even if it relocates further E i still think it gets buried over SA.
Quoting robert88:
Even if it relocates further E i still think it gets buried over SA.


Steering is NW based on WV images. The image IKE posted was at 500 milibars.
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
WESTERN PANAMA IS PRODUCING LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
534. IKE
Miami extended...

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BREAK DOWN MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

A NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO WORK BACK
INTO THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
Good Morning...
reading the ads this morning porsche would be nice they are becoming more family orientated. i can not afford to pay the speeding tickets. the other ad lower taxes! come on political ads have been saying that for yrs has anyone with anyone seen lower taxes. hell no have fun with the weather.
Looming super typhoon Juan 1st of strong cyclones to come

State weather forecasters on Saturday said typhoon "Juan" (Megi) – predicted to become a super typhoon once it makes landfall in northern Luzon on Monday – signals the start of a series of powerful storms for the remaining three months of the year.

Four areas were placed under Signal No. 1 as Juan continued on its course toward the Cagayan Valley region as of the 11 p.m. weather bulletin issued late Saturday.

Nathaniel Servando, deputy administrator of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said that while Juan is so far the strongest weather disturbance to visit the country this year, the public can expect similar, if not more powerful, storms after it.

"He is the greatest so far, but the projection for this year is that the most powerful storms are yet to come," Sevando said.

"Normally, during the last three months of the year, we see really strong storms...and we also have La Nina," he added.

According to PAGASA, around 20 to 21 cyclones visit the country every year on the average. Juan is the 10th cyclone to enter Philippine territory this year.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning/evening Aussie. I was thinking of you last night as I haven't seen you on here for a while. I know your wife's family is in the Philippines and pray they remain safe from Megi.

I am fine, just been avoiding this blog cause of the way it treated StormW.

My wife's Family will not be effected by this Super Typhoon. I am keeping friends we have that may be effected updated cause PAGASA has only been giving warning for 24hrs now. I told them on Thursday, its now Sunday night. Megi will make landfall in about 12hrs or at about 7am Philippines time. Keep an eye on typhoonfury.com
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am fine, just been avoiding this blog cause of the way it treated StormW.

My wife's Family will not be effected by this Super Typhoon. I am keeping friends we have that may be effected updated cause PAGASA has only been giving warning for 24hrs now. I told them on Thursday, its now Sunday night. Megi will make landfall in about 12hrs or at about 7am Philippines time. Keep an eye on typhoonfury.com
And I thought our weather service was bad about keeping people updated. Glad to know your wife's family will not be affected.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
And I thought our weather service was bad about keeping people updated. Glad to know your wife's family will not be affected.

its cause there area of responsibility is so small. which is bad for the country.
I'm currently watching Hurricane Gustav making landfall. It's on a WC program called Tornado road.

Typhoon Cimarron hit the Phillipines as a Cat 5 in 2006, there were less than 20 deaths and 10-20 million in damage the Philippines are prepared and hopefully they will come out fine
Quoting aspectre:
Invest 99L: the last 24hours in 6hour line-segments

Looks like NHC thinks it finally has a good center fix:
the 06amGMT was posted before the hour when it's usually posted 45minutes or more after the hour;
and a LARGE change in the position nearly perpendicular to the previous curvature.

Expect high orange from the NHC's 2amEDT TropicalWeatherOutlook, then some coordinate revisions on the 12pmGMT ATCF to smooth out the curvature.

Possibly even a TropicalDepression called on an 8amEDT NHC.Advisory. Though the probability of that remains low, I've a feeling that if&when 99L takes off, it's gonna organize&strengthen fast.


i agree. From yes to day its been looking kind of like a cane skeleton that only needed to move a bit more into the Caribbean. Things might just begin to heat up today. Also i wonder what the models are going to do with it.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Typhoon Cimarron hit the Phillipines as a Cat 5 in 2006, there were less than 20 deaths and 10-20 million in damage the Philippines are prepared and hopefully they will come out fine

I am sorry to say but, they are not prepared. Not everyone can evac. I have been there when a thunderstorm has come through and the roads practically flood within minutes. could not imagine what conditions will be like in a Cat 5 Super-typhoon.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NOT LIKELY...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

547. IKE
Looks like the NHC has changed direction on 99L's movement....no more NW movement....

AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Quoting AussieStorm:

where did you get that picture from? link please

From Wikipedia
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NOT LIKELY...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

Quoting AussieStorm:

I am sorry to say but, they are not prepared. Not everyone can evac. I have been there when a thunderstorm has come through and the roads practically flood within minutes. could not imagine what conditions will be like in a Cat 5 Super-typhoon.

I'm just basing mine off recent History a typhoon at about the same intensity at the same location did very little, Manila and many of the small islands I know are unprepared, but Juan will miss them. But I wasn't there, I hope everyone there stays safe.
553. HCW
Tropical Storm Nana 2008 formed about where the 10% circle is in October. Although she died rather quickly afterward.
GeoffreyWPB them models are going to move further north till they get in line with what the rest of the global models was showing earler a move northbound into the NW caribbean
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm currently watching Hurricane Gustav making landfall. It's on a WC program called Tornado road.


I remember that day.. there was a lot of panic on here from Gustav.
558. HCW
Sure is quite today.
.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sure is quite today.
Yep.
Quoting HCW:


That image is busted up no way there are 40knot winds down there.
893Mb 175mph in NW quadrant and 190Kt flight level - gulp

latest vortex message:
Product: Vortex Message (URPA12 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°01'N 125°05'E (18.0167N 125.0833E)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,151m (7,057ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 266° at 152kts (From the W at ~ 174.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 893mb (26.37 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE EYEWALL
Latest Google earth tracking of the HH into Megi
Link
565. That's very impressive. 893 mb is almost as strong as the Labor Day Hurricane. Frequent lightning too in the eyewall.. sign of intensification.
as i stated last night,the area to watch is the area of surface convergence very close to 14n,79w,THAT will be the feature that might develop intoo future richie as it moves wnw thru 24hrs,bette than 50% chance of tc devlopment over next 48hrs imo
when did they start flying into pacific storms again?
Highest surface winds found in Megi..
163kts
(~187.4mph)

Megi reminds me of Cyclone Monica a few year back.
Flight level winds in Megi are ~215 mph. SFC winds are nearing 190.
573. amd
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Flight level winds in Megi are ~215 mph. SFC winds are nearing 190.


A dropsonde measured surface winds of 200 mph in the NW quandrant.


Product: Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZPA13 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 11:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 18.2N 125.3E (View map)
Marsden Square: 060 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
912mb (26.93 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 174 knots (200 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
850mb 622m (2,041 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 105° (from the ESE) 176 knots (203 mph)
700mb 2,303m (7,556 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 140° (from the SE) 136 knots (157 mph)
It has probably reached its MPI (890mb and 150kts). Unbelievable presentation Satellite, quite incredible...
573. Great scott.. 200 mph SFC winds.
Looks like the models have a good handle on where 99L is going!



I have a feeling this is gonna go down in history as one of the strongest and most devastating storms ever. I really feel bad for those people now.
pretty historical readings, I have never seen 200mph sfc winds in any report of any cyclone ever! Northern outflow looks a bit restricted so maybe reached max intensity.
580. JRRP
Quoting Skyepony:
Another energy maybe is a little star made east of San Francisco by the biggest laser ever. They tested it this week.


One day we could all be driving Ford "Fusions"?

I am for all alternative energy too. Solar, Wind, (fusion really is the holy grail), BioDiesel. Not AS crazy about ethanol as it competes with Food.

In the begining Hybrid cars until rapid charge eletrical cars are invented along with a charging station infrastructure.

We will always need coal, oil, and natural gas just not as much.

Good Article skyepony...
i wish i was there to experience that energy.
Has 99l's center been moved again. The models are now starting more NNE of the known center.
Quoting shikori:
i wish i was there to experience that energy.

no you don't you couldn't even stand up. you'll be blown around like a rag doll.
Quoting Grothar:
Good morning Grothar..That is a bad one, maybe it will go through an eye wall regeneration cycle before it hits. Wishful thinking on my part. I hope you are doing well.. I wonder if Oz is there..;0
Cagayan folk flee ahead of typhoon ‘Juan’
abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 10/17/2010 9:42 PM | Updated as of 10/17/2010 9:43 PM


TUGUEGARAO CITY, Philippines - Residents of low-lying areas in Cagayan Valley have fled for higher ground as typhoon Juan (international name Megi) approaches the province.

They voluntarily left their homes starting Saturday, a day before local government agencies were scheduled to lead evacuation efforts, according to Benito Ramos, executive officer of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Ramos, the concurrent administrator of the Office of Civil Defense, said the voluntary evacuation of the residents, particularly those along the Cagayan river, are still ongoing as of press time. He said many people went to their relatives living in higher grounds.

However, he did not give a total number of the people who evacuated. "We cannot give a count because it’s ongoing… We cannot quantify as of now because they are still evacuation is continuing," he said.

He said the residents have learned their lessons from typhoon Pepeng that caused massive flooding in the region last year.

"They are now on the higher ground and did not wait for government [to evacuate them]," he said. "This is the lesson taught to us by nature. That is why we are having no problem in evacuating now."

Ramos said the government will not be responsible to those who will refuse to heed the call of the authorities to evacuate from the risk areas.

"That will not be our responsibility…If they do not evacuate, that will not be our fault," he said, adding they will not forcibly evacuate the residents. He said Army soldiers have been going to the barangays to inform the residents of the coming typhoon.

Juan is expected to make landfall over Cagayan Valley on Monday morning.

Signal number 4 over Cagayan, Isabela

The typhoon has further intensified, with public storm warning signal number 4 raised over Cagayan and Isabela provinces, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration.

As of 6:00 p.m. Sunday, the typhoon was located 360 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, and is moving westward at 22 kilometers per hour (kph).

It has maximum sustained winds of 225 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 260 kph.

more: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/10/17/10/cagayan-folk-flee-ahead-typhoon-%E2%80%98juan%E2%80%99
James Reynolds at typhoonfury.com has actually flown down to put himself in the way of this monster. Tweeting about it @ http://twitter.com/typhoonfury
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Grothar..That is a bad one, maybe it will go through an eye wall regeneration cycle before it hits. Wishful thinking on my part. I hope you are doing well.. I wonder if Oz is there..;0


Yo!. Yeah, it is a bad one. Don't know why the images I post keep changing. They are not the images I am posting. Must be old age. How you doing, hy??
Quoting Orcasystems:


Orca, where do you find the text for the Recon data for Megi?
If that recon is correct with the 200 mph SFC winds, Megi is the equivalent of a low end 200 mile wide EF5 tornado.
Hey, barbamz. Long time no see! They would not have to ask me twice to evacuate.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If that recon is correct with the 200 mph SFC winds, Megi is the equivalent of a low end 200 mile wide EF5 tornado.
Link?
Oh God... Megi's a MONSTER.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link?



Link
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
912mb (26.93 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 174 knots (200 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
850mb 622m (2,041 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 105° (from the ESE) 176 knots (203 mph)
700mb 2,303m (7,556 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 140° (from the SE) 136 knots (157 mph)
ADT says Megi has winds of 175mph and a pressure of 884mb.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 884.7mb/152.0kt

CDO just about to hit the coast.
600. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Link
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
912mb (26.93 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 174 knots (200 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
850mb 622m (2,041 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 105° (from the ESE) 176 knots (203 mph)
700mb 2,303m (7,556 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 140° (from the SE) 136 knots (157 mph)

200mph ??
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Grothar..That is a bad one, maybe it will go through an eye wall regeneration cycle before it hits. Wishful thinking on my part. I hope you are doing well.. I wonder if Oz is there..;0

I am not there yet, I am still in Sydney but i wish i was there with James Reynolds,Geoff Mackley, Bradley Ambrose and Mark Thomas.
Quoting JRRP:

200mph ??
Yes. Very impressive.
Quick Send Jim Cantore there!
New advisory for Megi is in. Winds have increased to 180mph (1-minute sustained). Gusts are up to 220mph.

1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 125.1E

15UTC Prognostic Reasoning:

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MEGI HAS INTENSIFIED TO
THE UPPER REACHES OF SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. CURRENT DVORAK EYE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ESTIMATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ELEVATED 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 155 KNOTS. A
STRENGTHENED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS SUPPORTED THIS
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST. EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT AROUND 15 DEG CELCIUS AND THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS RANGED FROM 20 TO 25 NM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT LUZON. THE SYSTEM
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LUZON IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS AND
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY. IT WILL EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND 18/12Z, REORGANIZE, AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. AROUND THIS TIME THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN NORTH OF WEST TO THE EAST OF
HAINAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM SIX HOURS
AGO. GFS REMAINS THE LONE OUTLIER THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND
STALLS THE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST OF LUZON FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS, THEN
JERKS THE TRACK PECULIARLY NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING
RIDES THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING/RETREATING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST, TO INCLUDE NOGAPS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MEGI WILL TURN TOWARDS A BUILDING
WEAKENESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS THE SOURCE OF THIS WEAKNESS. THERE
IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE AMONG THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NONTHELESS, THE 15Z JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO.//
NNNN
What's the pressure down too?
In case you need a map to find out where Aparri is in the Philippines and where our fearless TyphoonHunter is waiting for Megi.

Google Maps of Aparri, PI
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
James Reynolds at typhoonfury.com has actually flown down to put himself in the way of this monster. Tweeting about it @ http://twitter.com/typhoonfury
Either that guy is crazy. or he is risking his life in the name of science...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What's the pressure down too?
According to the JMA (official source), it's down to 895mb.
Invest 99L
16Oct 12amGMT deleted by NHC *9.8n78.7w*20knots*1009mb
16Oct 06amGMT - - 10.8n75.1w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.3w
16Oct 12pmGMT - - 10.9n75.7w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.8w
16Oct 06pmGMT - - 11.0n76.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.7n80.3w
17Oct 12amGMT - - 11.1n76.9w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.5n80.8w
17Oct 06amGMT - - 11.3n77.6w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *10.3n81.2w
17Oct 12pmGMT - - 11.5n78.2w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
Copy&paste 10.8n75.1w, 10.9n75.7w-11.0n76.3w, 11.0n76.3w-11.1n76.9w, 11.1n76.9w-11.3n77.6w, 11.3n77.6w-11.5n78.2w, bef, trb into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours.
^ In four 6hour line-segments
Looks like Models don't know if anything will devleop or not. Gotta love ebay auctions that end on Sunday morning. I just bought 4 Lightning Tickets 4pizzas and 4 drinks for $14.99 ....NICE!!!
Man oh Man. Hold on tight those in Megi's path. That thing is a super monster...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
According to the JMA (official source), it's down to 895mb.

What are the winds? 190 mph?
Quoting Ameister12:

What are the winds? 190 mph?
180mph. Gusts are up to 220mph.
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, barbamz. Long time no see! They would not have to ask me twice to evacuate.


Hey Grothar! Yes, I've been out to Crete for holidays. Luckily no huricanes there like baaad Megi.
617. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. Very impressive.

yea
I noted the on the weather underground page winds for at200512
Super Typhoon Megi is up too 180mph ouch
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180mph. Gusts are up to 220mph.

Thanks. Megi will defiantly go down in history as one of the strongest tropical cyclones.
620. JRRP

895 mb and 180 mph are the exact stats Hurricane Rita had when she peaked in the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting Hydrus:
Either that guy is crazy. or he is risking his life in the name of science...


The lack of activity here in the Pacific got to him so he went abseiling down to a volcano's lava lake a month or so ago.

But he's not so crazy as to decamp from his current position to try and drive south across rural Philippines in the dark to try and get in to the eyewall of this thing.
Quoting Grothar:


Yo!. Yeah, it is a bad one. Don't know why the images I post keep changing. They are not the images I am posting. Must be old age. How you doing, hy??
Busy... Hope these people are ready..
Quoting hydrus:
Either that guy is crazy. or he is risking his life in the nace of science...
Not nesesairly either or proposition.
Quoting Cat5Hurricane250:
895 mb and 180 mph are the exact stats Hurricane Rita had when she peaked in the Gulf of Mexico.

If the pressure drops 13 more millibars, we will be dealing with a cyclone the intensity of Wilma.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Interesting little blob..
just as I thought they moved the low to 99L right location



She's huge!

Imagine if she was in the GOM. Yikes!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow.



Wow is right
Aqua MODIS caught a perfect shot of Megi at 5:00 UTC.

wow..something new to watch here
hydrus blob BLOB BLOB!!!!!! THAT IS PAULA YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Aqua MODIS caught a perfect shot of Megi at 4:55 UTC.


Wow! Talk about a beautiful disaster.
I beleive the GOM could support a Cat2 storm but, a Cat3 or higher might be difficult unless Shear was completely neal.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days


1) A. 10%
2) A. 20%
640. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days

I chose A and A
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days



huh what 90L oh you mean PGI-61L ok I get it but please do not call it 90L when it is not but you can call it PRE-90l but don't call it 90L but anyway

I say
1 is A-B most likely B
2 is B-C most likely C but there is a possibility that it is B
I asked my friend from the Philippines and she says they are not prepared at all. Megi is small for a 5 and hopefully he won't cause to much flooding.
Quoting Ameister12:

If the pressure drops 13 more millibars, we will be dealing with a cyclone the intensity of Wilma.


Yes and no.

The Pacific has lower pressures in general than the Atlantic, there's not a direct comparison when talking about pressure.

If Wilma was put in the Pacific, she would have been stronger than Tip.
Both the GFS 00z and 06z predict that a EPAC syetem forms from 99L and goes into the BOC and causes a trough spilt to occur and creates a tropical depression. It also shows tropical Wave PGI61L from and head for the northern islands in a bout a week.
646. JRRP

Megi SE of China
Steering Layer: 500-850 hPa for western pacific


whats even worse is that Megi is going to hit luzon in the early morning, no light but lightning.
Quoting Cat5Hurricane250:
895 mb and 180 mph are the exact stats Hurricane Rita had when she peaked in the Gulf of Mexico.


Actually, Megi's a bit weaker than Rita -- the average pressure is lower on that side of the planet, and it is easier for storms over there to reach those low pressures. So Rita's still a bit stronger.
I'm going out for a while...
Recap:
Cat. 5 MEGI 180 MPH Storm with 895 MB pressure
99L still Disorganized for the time being
PGI61L tropical wave predicted to get into conducive environment.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time:
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...

Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days



I'll take Beef with Broccoli.
Quoting hurristat:


Actually, Megi's a bit weaker than Rita -- the average pressure is lower on that side of the planet, and it is easier for storms over there to reach those low pressures. So Rita's still a bit stronger.


Um, no, cuz Rita never had 200 mph surface winds and 220 mph flight level. Not sure why the advisory intensity was kept at 180 mph.
654. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRES CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC E-NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NW THROUGH WED. AN EMBEDDED WEAK
LOW CENTER NEAR 12N79W WILL DRIFT NW WITHIN THE LARGER
CIRCULATION AND REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY LATE TUE...WHERE
IT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC WILL SINK S AND INTO FAR N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N
ATLC LATE MON AND BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WED.
..........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF SW TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE.




been a long time from the last i saw this

17/1430 UTC 17.9N 124.6E T7.5/7.5 MEGI -- West Pacific
any land based radar near megi landfall?
Quoting Grothar:


I'll take Beef with Broccoli.
Ham and Swiss on rye. Washed down with Corn or Barley.
We'll take Paul Lynde to block!

Steering Layer: 200-700 hPa

what is the coastal and inland population in the landfall area?
Holy camoly!

895 hPa from the JMA!
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
We'll take Paul Lynde to block!

Steering Layer: 200-700 hPa



Big LOL.
That 200mph wind was probably a gust. The winds higher up do not seem to verify sustained winds of that strength.

Either way though, this is one beast of a storm.

Best of luck to those in the Philippines.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blog Update!
Super Typhoon Megi 10/17/10


Nice update, Teddy. Clear, concise, short and to the point. Hate those long technical blogs with fronts, troughs, baroclinic highs, etc. More blogs should look like that.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Looks like the models are getting a better handle on 99L.
Megi's the first WPac storm to officially attain a pressure below 900 hPa since Yuri in 1991.
Here's the wind shear



Click on the image for original sized image so you can see all the lovely -10s on that map around Megi.
This is not a clear image, but this gives you an idea of what Megi looks like.
Quoting MoltenIce:
Megi's the first WPac storm to officially attain a pressure below 900 hPa since Yuri in 1991.


I think there's been a couple since: Gay in '92 and Angela in '95. Zeb in '98, perhaps. Pressure readings in the Pacific always seem to be debatable.

Not for a while, though.
Quoting caneswatch:


Looks like the models are getting a better handle on 99L.


Go look at post #576 and stop stealing my lines. It takes me hours to come up with them.:P
Quoting Grothar:


Go look at post #576 and stop stealing my lines. It takes me hours to come up with them.:P


Well, it's because your old, that's why it takes you forever.
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
Here's the wind shear



Click on the image for original sized image so you can see all the lovely -10s on that map around Megi.




thats is NOT a wind shear map that msp shows you what wind shear has been for the last 24 too 48hrs or so
Quoting Tazmanian:




thats is NOT a wind shear map that msp shows you what wind shear has been for the last 24 too 48hrs or so


So, it's not a wind shear map, but rather just a map that shows wind shear? Got it. Thanks for clearing that up! ;-)
Lightning in the eye wall indicates further strengthening.

"MAX FL WIND 170 KT NE QUAD 11:12:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 250 / 4 NM FROM FL CNTR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL"

Quoting Grothar:


Nice update, Teddy. Clear, concise, short and to the point. Hate those long technical blogs with fronts, troughs, baroclinic highs, etc. More blogs should look like that.


Thanks!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Lightning in the eye wall indicates further strengthening.

"MAX FL WIND 170 KT NE QUAD 11:12:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 250 / 4 NM FROM FL CNTR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL"

Yup. Unfortunately, Recon left so we won't be able to catch the intensification.
I really hope people in the Philippines are prepared.


680. IKE
12Z GFS @ 120 hours...

That is one nasty looking storm....
caneswatch "Looks like the models are getting a better handle on 99L."
Grothar "Go look at post #576 and stop stealing my lines. It takes me hours to come up with them. :P"
caneswatch "Well, it's because you're old..."

ahhh... to be young and naive. The proper descriptive is aged to perfection.
Quoting aspectre:
caneswatch "Looks like the models are getting a better handle on 99L."
Grothar "Go look at post #576 and stop stealing my lines. It takes me hours to come up with them. :P"
caneswatch "Well, it's because you're old..."

ahhh... to be young and naive. The proper descriptive is aged to perfection.


You have WU-Mail. Nothing bad.
Tazmanian "That is NOT a wind shear map. That map shows you what wind shear has been for the last 24 to 48hrs or so"

Neapolitan "So, it's not a wind shear map, but rather just a map that shows wind shear? Got it. Thanks for clearing that up!" ;-)

Deliberate obtuseness is best left to antiAGWers. It's not a forecast map. Which is an important point, as I've explained about the aftcasting in XTRP and in my straightline projections.
Quoting aspectre:
caneswatch "Looks like the models are getting a better handle on 99L."
Grothar "Go look at post #576 and stop stealing my lines. It takes me hours to come up with them. :P"
caneswatch "Well, it's because you're old..."

ahhh... to be young and naive. The proper descriptive is aged to perfection.


Thanks a, at least somebody respects their elders. LOL It's OK Canes a friend of mine.
Quoting caneswatch:


You have WU-Mail. Nothing bad.


Checked, nothing there. You must have sent it to somebody else, but that's what happens when kids try to mail something.
Quoting aspectre:
Tazmanian "That is NOT a wind shear map. That msp shows you what wind shear has been for the last 24 too 48hrs or so"

Neapolitan "So, it's not a wind shear map, but rather just a map that shows wind shear? Got it. Thanks for clearing that up!" ;-)

Deliberate obtuseness is best left to antiAGWers. It's not a forecast map.
Which is an important point, as I've explained about the aftcasting in XTRP and in my straightline projections.
You got to hope it's deliberate (anti-AGW). I'm worried they are really that dense.
Oh no.It looks like Luzon is about to get blasted.This is bad.Real real bad.I hope the loss of life isn't high.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blog Update!
Super Typhoon Megi 10/17/10

Thanks CybrTeddy
Facts and figures may fluctuate,but just by looking at satallite view,I'd say this is one powerful Cyclone!!
Hunker down time for our Phillippino brothers and sisters.
Does anyone here have a link for a landbased radar in the Phillippines?
Quoting Grothar:


Checked, nothing there. You must have sent it to somebody else, but that's what happens when kids try to mail something.


Haha, I sent it to aspectre. I told him the same thing you did. I'll be back at the half, time to see the Dolphins get back to business.
caneswatch, didn't take it any way other than funnin'.
Still... to tangle with a man who's rassled sabertooths, in snow, uphill, both ways...
Quoting aspectre:
caneswatch, didn't take it any other way. Still... to tangle with a man who's rassled sabertooths, in snow, uphill, both ways...


I know what he's done way back in the day lol
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS @ 120 hours...


Models trending west...

Why do we hear that incessantly when it means Earl approaching closer to the CONUS, but just crickets when it means 99L projects to cross to the Pacific instead of coming straight up to FL?
Quoting aspectre:
Deliberate obtuseness is best left to antiAGWers.

Psst! aspectre! Go back and look at my OP; I think you missed the smiley... ;-)

From PAGASA (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting aspectre:
caneswatch, didn't take it any way other than funnin'.
Still... to tangle with a man who's rassled sabertooths, in snow, uphill, both ways...


And won, don't forget I won!!! I was even there when Greenland was warm. Before I get back to the games, I'll show you a picture of what Greenland was really like. Football comes first, though.

This is what Greenland looked liked. Ice caps, humph!!!!

Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh no.It looks like Luzon is about to get blasted.This is bad.Real real bad.I hope the loss of life isn't high.

If there can be a good landfall path, at least
it is 4 degrees north of Manila. Pop. 20M where
most folks live and work. Our facility there was fine after the last typhoon but many had their homes flooded and the streets were full of debris for a month afterward. Hoping for the
best for those in the path. The government does
not have the resources to assist especially in
the North.
12z CMC is more bullish with the Eastern Atlantic system, but moves it to the North.

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

I find it decreasingly funny and increasingly irritating that some try to claim there's a supposed quid pro quo or balance involved here, when that's not so. AGW theorists can quote from volumes and volumes of academic and multi-governmental, multi-discipline scientific literature to bolster their beliefs,

Ah, the "appeal to authority". Poor debate technique.


At any rate, I presume you're aware of the many problems with the latest IPCC report. Yes, the article is from Fox News, but that doesn't change the findings of the independent panel commissioned by the UN.


The article also mentions yet another highly qualified scientist who disagrees with the AGW hypothesis, "Noted climate skeptic Don Easterbrook, an emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University".


Other than that, as far as science goes the warmists have little beyond computer models, (increasingly discredited) tree ring proxies, and the various gamed surface temperature sets.


while contrarians, lacking any such actual science to support their claims, continually dip into articles on the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored disinformation written by the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored authors publishing in the same small rotation of corporate-sponsored websites or periodicals.

You seem quite confused about the current state of affairs. First of all, "contrarians" (I prefer to think of myself as a "realist" or "objectivist") have every bit as much science to consider as do the warmists. Much of the research that was done to support the AGW hypothesis actually supports the opposite viewpoint instead. We can also analyze the many flaws in the computer models that form the centerpiece of the AGW hypothesis. There is also the paleoclimate record, which is clearly relevant and often distorted or misunderstood by the warmists. Finally, there are many direct scientific measurements which are of equal interest to both sides.

Do contrarians ever think about that? Ever?

I can't speak for others, but I certainly strive for intellectual honesty.
FWIW, I'm not trying to change anyone's mind about A/GW here, because I seriously doubt whether that can be done. But if I can do my own infinitesimal part to force both sides to use actual data and to discuss things intellgently and fairly, I'll sleep better at night. ;-)

Oh, I think (and hope) that these types of discussions change minds. I hope more and more people educate themselves regarding science, the scientific method, and the AGW hypothesis. Solar astronomy is another very interesting area... ;-)
Good morning/afternoon all.

Man, Megi looks ferocious and my prayers go out to the people of the Philippines as they will get clocked on early Monday.

I see 99L is still slowly churning in the SW Caribbean sea also.

I published a new article for the "Examiner.com" on the Ft Worth Weather Examiner page, please stop by and take a look
Link
Feb 18, 2010
$9b budget deficit: Philippines

MANILA - THE Philippines on Thursday posted a record budget deficit in 2009 as spending on infrastructure offset collection gains in December.

The 298.5 billion pesos (S$9.07 billion) shortfall was 'higher than our likely scenario of a budget gap of 290.2 billion pesos announced earlier', Finance Secretary Margarito Teves said in a statement.

'We were actually hoping to perform better than the likely scenario due to the improved tax collection performance in December,' Mr Teves said. Mr Teves however said the whole year deficit was equivalent to 3.9 per cent of the gross domestic product, adding that was 'relatively better than most of our peers in the region'.

He said he was also concerned that gains made in previous fiscal reforms were being 'quickly eroded by various tax relief measures' earlier imposed to help soften to the blow of the global financial crisis.

Manila had set a full-year deficit ceiling of 250 billion pesos, or 3.2 per cent of gross domestic product, and had counted on heavy spending in the first half to help revive the economy after a collapse in its exports sector.

However storms in late September and early October that devastated Manila and other parts of the main island of Luzon, killing more than 1,100 people, also took a heavy economic toll. -- AFP

Link
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good morning/afternoon all.

Man, Megi looks ferocious and my prayers go out to the people of the Philippines as they will get clocked on early Monday.

I see 99L is still slowly churning in the SW Caribbean sea also.

I published a new article for the "Examiner.com" on the Ft Worth Weather Examiner page, please stop by and take a look
Link

Well done atricle, I say an upgrade to weather
expert is called for in the byline. Half of the TV weather on air staff I watch on Broadcast most likely spend 1/10 th the time on research as some folks here. My wife worked at WNDS for 4 years and there man Al K.
(high pressure!)was one of the more dedicated
and entertaining.
Quoting Objectivist (#699):
Blah, blah, blah...

Ah, I can't let you cast such aspersions without answering them. ;-)

1) Yes, the logical fallacy technique known as an "appeal to authority" is a lousy debating technique...but what I stated wasn't an appeal to authority, and I think you know that. Such an appeal would be me pointing at a particular source--a person, an organization--and saying, "Well, they've been right before, so they simply have to be right this time." But that's not what I did, is it? No, I highlighted the fact that the overwhelming and growing majority of credible climate scientists, after having looked at the volumes and volumes of literature, are adhering to the theory of GW, an adherence that can be supported by pulling from any of a million different sources in dozens of disciplines--and that is absolutely not something contrarians can do--nor will they ever be able to.

2) Don Easterbrook, FWIW, doesn't deny the planet is warming, as many do; he only denies that that rising CO2 is behind that warming, and says the PDO is at fault--a fact that most of his colleagues have realized is due to a misunderstanding of PDO by Easterbrook. At any rate, folks who regularly speak in front of the Big Energy/Big Tobacco-funded "Heartland Institute" have no credibility. None.

3) Perhaps the most patently false statement you made--and one that makes me realize you're approaching this with far less than the intellectual honesty you claim: "...as far as science goes the warmists have little beyond computer models, (increasingly discredited) tree ring proxies, and the various gamed surface temperature sets." Do you believe that? Seriously? How about rising sea levels? Vanishing glaciers? Massive, unprecedented coral bleachings? Numerous and increasing record heat waves? Historic flooding? Extended, widespread droughts? Disappearing Arctic ice? Core samples? Let's say every temperature every recorded was falsified as part of a gargantuan scam; how would you guys explain the changes above, and all the others happening?

(Too--and don't think we didn't notice--you used the contrarian weasel term gamed temperature sets--a usage which, again, shows intellectual dishonesty. Tsk, tsk, tsk...)

4) Your second most ridiculous false statement: "First of all, 'contrarians'...have every bit as much science to consider as do the warmists. Much of the research that was done to support the AGW hypothesis actually supports the opposite viewpoint instead." Two words: show us. Evem if you include all the "Oil and Coal have never harmed a fly!" propaganda put out by the ExxonMobils of the world, along with all the reams of made-up "data" supporting the inane "Drill, baby, drill!" idiocy of the past few years, you'll come up ridiculously short.

5) The height of irony is this: I state that all the deniers can produce is stuff from non-scientific websites--and you respond with nothing less than a link to Fox News, the media arm of the anti-science GOP!