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Second Warmest U.S. February on Record: Chalk It Up to Greenhouse Gases

By: Bob Henson 6:35 PM GMT on March 08, 2017

As suggested by plants budding and blooming several weeks ahead of schedule, last month placed second among all U.S. Februaries in records going back 123 years, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. In its quarterly climate summary, NCEI announced that the 48 contiguous United States saw its second warmest February and sixth warmest winter (December - February) on record.

The month’s warmth was remarkably widespread. Every contiguous state but Washington came in above average, and 16 states from Texas to New York had their warmest February on record (see Figure 2). The warmth and a fast-drying landscape helped pave the way for enormous wildfires that raged across the Southern Plains on Monday, killing at least seven people.

The most spectacular index of February’s warmth is the 28-to-1 ratio of daily record highs (11,743) to daily record lows (418) noted in Wednesday’s report. When it comes to all-time monthly records, the ratio was even more wildly skewed: 1151 to 2.


Figure 1. Tulip magnolia trees bloom in Washington, on Feb. 28, 2017. Crocuses, cherry trees, and magnolia trees were blooming several weeks early because of an unusually warm February. The National Park Service predicted on March 8 that the peak bloom of the famed cherry trees at D.C.’s Tidal Basin would occur on March 14-17. This would put it on par with the earliest bloom on record: March 15, 1990. Image credit: AP Photo/Cliff Owen.


Figure 2. Statewide rankings for average temperature during February 2017 as compared to each February since 1895. Darker shades of orange indicate higher rankings for warmth, with 1 denoting the coldest month on record and 123 the warmest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 3. Average temperatures for the contiguous U.S. for each February from 1895 to 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


A new norm evolving for late-winter temperature
As shown in Figure 3, NOAA data show that only February 1954 (average temperature of 41.41°F) topped February 2017 (average 41.16°F). The only other February to rack up an average above 40°F was in 1930. It’s noteworthy that February 2017 was much less of a leap from the “new normal” than its rivals. Against the long-term linear trend of the last century (the blue line in Figure 3), last month came in about 5°F above the trend line, whereas February 1954 was nearly 7.5°F above the trend line.

The message here is that it’s not as difficult to get this kind of February warmth as it used to be. Increased greenhouse gases are the main reason, according to a study released Wednesday by the World Weather Attribution project. The WWA, led by Climate Central with several partners worldwide, uses observations and in-depth climate modeling to provide prompt assessments of how recent weather and climate events fit into the context of a changing planet.

The new WWA report, led by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (KNMI, the Netherlands center for climate research), analyzed NOAA data from 1900 to show that a month as warm as February 2017 could now be expected about every 8 years on average, whereas the odds of getting such a month in 1900 were about 160 to 1.

The second part of the study pinned this trend on greenhouse gases by examining output generated for the most recent IPCC report from 42 comprehensive climate models, as well as two higher-resolution weather-only models. A series of historical model runs spanning 1960 - 2015 found that solar variations and volcanic eruptions had no effect on the warming trend. Because natural climate variations cancel each other out across this 55-year ensemble of 15 model runs, human-produced greenhouse emissions are the only solid explanation for the long-term warming. Another striking finding: “Around 2050 temperatures like this are projected to be completely normal, occurring approximately every three years on average.”

Warm-weather lovers may rejoice at this news (while cross-country skiers may cringe), but a shift toward Februaries on par with 2017 would have major consequences for U.S. forests and agriculture, especially with the possibility of damaging late-winter freezes still in the mix.


Figure 4. Statewide rankings for average temperature during winter 2016-17 (December through February), as compared to each Dec-to-Feb since 1895. Darker shades of orange indicate higher rankings for warmth, with 1 denoting the coldest month on record and 122 the warmest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Sixth warmest U.S. winter on record
The average contiguous U.S. temperature for December through February of 35.90°F tied with 1997-98 for sixth place among the 122 years of recordkeeping, according to Wednesday’s NOAA report. All but one of the seven warmest U.S. winters on record have occurred since 1997, with three of those recorded in the 2010s. The only cooler-than-average pocket this past winter (see Figure 4 above) was the northwestern corner of the country, including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. Mildness was overwhelming from the southern Rockies northward and eastward, with both Texas and Louisiana notching their warmest winters on record and every state east of the Mississippi having a top-ten warmest winter.


Figure 5. Relentless storms this winter have left a trail of damage on California roadways, including this section of westbound Highway 50 near Pollock Pines photographed on Feb. 21. By late February, the bill to repair California's roadways hammered by floods and rockslides in an onslaught of storms this winter is already at least $550 million, more than double what the state budgeted for such emergencies. Image credit: AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli.

An unexpected deluge in California
The biggest precipitation news of the winter was the return of ample moisture to California after five years of withering drought. The state scored its second-wettest winter on record in 2016-17 after a near-average winter in 2015-16 (focused mainly on the state’s northern half) and four below-average years before that. The statewide average precipitation of 21.67” in 2016-17 compares to a total of just 4.81” in 2011-12! Sierra snowpack in Phillips Station south of Lake Tahoe was at 185% of the average for the date on March 1, putting it among the four biggest accumulations on record at this point in the year.

Figure 6 below makes it clear that wild swings in precipitation are the norm for California. What’s new in recent years is that dry periods are now much more likely to be paired with extreme warmth, as was the case in the early to mid-2010s. Higher temperatures tend to exacerbate the impact of drought by pulling moisture from already-parched soils and reservoirs.


Figure 6. Winter precipitation for California showed a phenomenal jump in 2016-17 compared to the previous few years, while the average precipitation has shown little trend over the last century. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

El Niño, La Niña, and West Coast precipitation
This was the second winter in a row to vex seasonal forecasters who leaned on signals from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to predict precipitation across the West Coast. The very strong El Niño of 2015-16 failed to produce the expected downpours across southern California (which trends wet during El Niño) while giving Seattle (which tends dry during El Niño) its wettest winter on record. This year’s weak La Niña also ran against the grain of expectations, leaving the state of Washington slightly below average in precipitation while giving California a bumper crop of moisture all the way to San Diego.

Although strong El Niño events are very likely to produce wet winters in California, the relationship is not an ironclad guarantee. “The bottom line is that California can get wet during El Niño, but not always,” noted Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services). Likewise, a weak or borderline La Niña event tends slightly toward dryness across Southern California, but annual precipitation during these events has varied widely, from as little as 54% to as much as 127% of average, not counting this year’s deluge. There is sure to be fascinating research ahead on the winters of 2015-16 and 2016-17 and their wildly divergent West Coast precipitation outcomes.

This winter’s ample moisture extended from California across the Rockies and into the Midwest (see Figure 7 below). Both Nevada and Wyoming had their wettest winters on record, while the only significant pockets of seasonal dryness were across the mid-Mississippi Valley and the mid-Atlantic. Dry conditions intensified and expanded across both of these areas last month: Missouri, Illinois, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware all saw a top-ten driest February.

We’ll be back with a new post on Friday at the latest.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. Statewide rankings for average precipitation during winter 2016-17 (December through February), as compared to each Dec-to-Feb period since 1895. Darker shades of green indicate higher rankings for moisture, with 1 denoting the driest month on record and 122 the wettest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 204. BayFog:


Privacy.

Could you elaborate? What privacy concerns are there that don't also exist here?
Quoting 1. 1Zach1:


Could you elaborate? What privacy concerns are there that don't also exist here?


None.

Patrap DISQUS TEST run 101
108 Comments Edit

The "hoax" rolls on.
"Warm-weather lovers may rejoice at this news (while cross-country skiers may cringe), but a shift toward Februaries on par with 2017 would have major consequences for U.S. forests and agriculture, especially with the possibility of damaging late-winter freezes still in the mix. "

It doesn't look good those blooms/swelling buds considering the cold on Sunday to come, here a little farther north most of my stone fruit crop's bud's are just starting to swell, so they should be good to about 10F.

For many orchardists, this will hurt. Lots of model volatility right now though so let's hope for a less extreme outcome.



Edit: 10F appears to be wishful thinking, 15F is when the hurt begins at first swell stage.









Can't wait for hurricane season.

Don't know why the Dr doesn't do a blog about this. ;)
Quoting 5. gr8lakebreeze:

"Warm-weather lovers may rejoice at this news (while cross-country skiers may cringe), but a shift toward Februaries on par with 2017 would have major consequences for U.S. forests and agriculture, especially with the possibility of damaging late-winter freezes still in the mix. "

It doesn't look good those blooms/swelling buds considering the cold on Sunday to come, here a little farther north most of my stone fruit crop's bud's are just starting to swell, so they should be good to about 10F.

For many orchardists, this will hurt. Lots of model volatility right now though so let's hope for a less extreme outcome.








Here in DC Bradford pear blossoms were lightly browned by 19F on Sunday 3/4. The blossoms survived but are less attractive. Magnolias froze and turned to ugly brown mush but that happens most years here at some point in their bloom cycle, normally late March. Most other species were fine.

But This Saturday 3/11 looks colder with wind. Upper teens Saturday morning in arctic air and more blossoms are further along. I have NEVER seen the cherry blossoms freeze in 50 years here but they will be fully out sometime next week and some are out now. Upper teens with wind makes for very tough conditions for them. They have survived low to mid 20s untouched other years though.

My peach tree will be in full bloom this weekend. Blossoms had 99% survival through mid 20s April 6 last year (just past bloom and tiny fruits had set). But again, upper teens is worse!
I'm struck by the difference in the statewide (CA) rain totals and what we get up here in my little corner of the state on the north coast. For example, our largest flood on record, and it was a HUGE flood, was in 1964, which appears to be one of the driest on record for the state as a whole.

California is a big state, I guess.
Thanks Mr. Henson; no surprise as to this February warmth and where the trend is going; Winter is never going away because of the physical property of the Earth's tilt from the Sun creating the seasons in each hemisphere but it does not take a rocket scientist to see that many, if not most of our recent Winters in the United States, are getting shorter with the strong winter blasts taking longer to arrive in many locations, and particularly in the lower tier of the 48, in the Fall to December period, and then for things to heat up quicker again come February and March.

Notes on data released March 2, 2017:
The 2015-16 El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event has faded into history, but the globe still saw its fourth warmest February in the satellite global temperature record, including the warmest February in that time for the contiguous 48 U.S. states, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. The average temperature over the U.S. was 2.1 Celsius (about 3.78 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms in February 2017.

Ready for Spring here in D.C.This sucky winter wants to drag on unfortunately! It hasn't done nothing and now wants to hold us hostage!
Powerful Photos Reveal a Nation in Crisis as Drought Hits

Right now, the UN estimates nearly 3 million people in Somalia are in need of emergency assistance. A drought turns into a famine when there is no safety net, and Somalia, battered by decades of war and drought, has none. They worry that if rain doesn’t come this month, mass starvation will follow.

There are two rainy seasons in Somalia: spring, known as Gu, and fall, called Deyr. In 2016, spring rainfall was weak and fall was disastrously dry. Now, the country waits to see if the Gu season beginning in March will bring rain.

Last month, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, a consortium of climate scientists and humanitarian groups, warned that if rain doesn’t come famine is expected.


Link
And back to the devastation in Madagascar:




We are warming the Globe at a pace 170 times greater than what the natural forces would do.

That is the rub.
Quoting 8. RedwoodCoast:

I'm struck by the difference in the statewide (CA) rain totals and what we get up here in my little corner of the state on the north coast. For example, our largest flood on record, and it was a HUGE flood, was in 1964, which appears to be one of the driest on record for the state as a whole.

California is a big state, I guess.

Indeed, this is a state of geographic, biological, and cultural extremes.
Quoting 13. Gearsts:


Yearning for hurricane season eh?
Yes.

And near you, was it 2011 I parked four nights at Squaw Valley and had four feet of snow on my car when I went to leave? Looks like it was a pretty average year statewide. That was the year I skied on my birthday (May 21st) and they opened again on 4th of July.
And now we have to see what the US tornado count will look like this year;
these stats are only through February 17th not counting the recent tornado
count through yesterday:

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI FEB 17 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 142 - 17 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB 111 - 102 3 42 39 4 7 0 0 2 3 4 0 0 1
MAR 49 - 86 11 20 38 - 0 1 0 0 - 0 1 0 0
APR - - 141 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 90 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 38 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 20 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 302 - 971 1177 886 1041 20 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8


#7 My peach tree will be in full bloom this weekend. Blossoms had 99% survival through mid 20s April 6 last year (just past bloom and tiny fruits had set). But again, upper teens is worse!


Yeah the teens would be game over, hopefully the mid 20s is the bottom for you.



Quoting 21. dutchessweather:

Hey, at least you didn't say it was due to "man-made global warming"! Yes, there are greenhouse gases, and they do keep the planet warm. What has been pretty thoroughly discredited, by data, is the "man-made global warming" theory. The best data comes from global sea level rise. If there was a significant rise in the rate of global warming (that has been happening for thousands of years), there would be a significant increase in the rate of global sea level rise during the past 50 years; there hasn't. This inconvenient truth seems to always be avoided by the warmist fraud promoters (or they will use the ridiculous measurements from satellites, with accuracy to ~5cm, to report changes in mm/yr, with measurements only recently being available, rather than using the 100+ global network of tide gages that were originally used to project catastrophic sea level rises back in the early 80's when the whole theory was proposed)(Yes, I used to believe the theory when it was first proposed in the early 80's, but have been following the data for the past 30 years and now realize the theory could not be proven or supported by tide data and global temperature data (if the temperature data are properly analyzed to removed various biases).


Dude, where's your facts? You know. the kind peer reviewed tens of thousands of times by those climate scientists guys in published papers studying measurements and historical data. It's only been discredited through transparent lies by those who have no shame and are shills for Big Oil, Republicans, and Billionaires.
You would have to do some actual research, or read some of the peer reviewed research out there, before making a generalization that sea levels are not rising. It's not a uniform rate of rise across the globe and some studies have suggested that sea levels might appear to get lower (in parts of the Northern Hemisphere in the Northern Latitudes) because as glacial ice sheets melt, there is some weight relief on the crust that allows it to rise. Some of the same research suggests that some of the water being discharge because of glacial melt travels deep in the bottom layers (due to the cold nature) and the some of the biggest water expansion will be closer to the mid-latitudes and closer to the equator. Lots of documented sea level rise in many coastal regions (look up some data on Miami Beach and their new pumping stations to keep up with high tide water slosh in many locations), and particularly at high tide, and some Islands in the tropics around the world are losing ground.......................Think of it like an X-Files challenge..............The truth is out there if you chose to actually look.
Quoting 21. dutchessweather:

Hey, at least you didn't say it was due to "man-made global warming"! Yes, there are greenhouse gases, and they do keep the planet warm. What has been pretty thoroughly discredited, by data, is the "man-made global warming" theory. The best data comes from global sea level rise. If there was a significant rise in the rate of global warming (that has been happening for thousands of years), there would be a significant increase in the rate of global sea level rise during the past 50 years; there hasn't. This inconvenient truth seems to always be avoided by the warmist fraud promoters (or they will use the ridiculous measurements from satellites, with accuracy to ~5cm, to report changes in mm/yr, with measurements only recently being available, rather than using the 100+ global network of tide gages that were originally used to project catastrophic sea level rises back in the early 80's when the whole theory was proposed)(Yes, I used to believe the theory when it was first proposed in the early 80's, but have been following the data for the past 30 years and now realize the theory could not be proven or supported by tide data and global temperature data (if the temperature data are properly analyzed to removed various biases).


Whew. Residents of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are sure going to be glad to hear that the coastal erosion and nuisance flooding they've been increasingly forced to deal with are just some sort of liberal agenda foisted on them by the global science conspiracy. They don't have to leave their homes! They don't have to pay to replace or armor their infrastructure! It's all a hoax!
Quoting 24. schistkicker:



Whew. Residents of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are sure going to be glad to hear that the coastal erosion and nuisance flooding they've been increasingly forced to deal with are just some sort of liberal agenda foisted on them by the global science conspiracy. They don't have to leave their homes! They don't have to pay to replace or armor their infrastructure! It's all a hoax!


Here in the U.S. basements and low lying areas will transition from Dry to Alt-Dry
Re. 22 21

Is sea level rising? - National Ocean Service - NOAA
Global sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades. In 2014, global sea level was 2.6 inches above the 1993 average - the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Sea level continues to rise at a rate of about one-eighth of an inch per year.

....
Read more.
I just popped some popcorn so I can sit back and watch the show (# comment 21).

As far as local news in my area, the fire is now up to 7500 acres in Collier Co. Florida. It's a warm day but the winds have died down quite a bit so that should help fire fighters.
Not liking we're close to '54, hottest day ever in IL that year and one of the worst droughts. 6th warmest & 14th driest this winter doesn't help alleviate the foreboding.

Over original forecast high by 1, 62 w/ 22 dew pt, pressure has been dropping, below 30.2" now, still 10-15 WSW w/ 30 gust.

ChiTom, if ya have plans for those collectors, I'd be interested in seeing them. WUmail while still available?
Not just temperatures. Precipitable water is increasing over the past decades with a surprising number of recent records. DC set a record for any month in August 2015 and a record for December that year also. Central Minesota had its first February sounding ever with over an inch of PWAT this year. This is consistent with a warmer atmosphere and a northward shift in the polar jet so warm moist air penetrates further north, the latter more important in the northern U.S. and Canada. Warmer tropics seems to have been the culprit for the DC records, this far south warm moist glop invasions aren't unknown even in winter but it was a little warmer and more moist to set these records (Feb 2016 also approached a record PWAT here in DC)
21. dutchessweather said:

"Hey, at least you didn't say it was due to "man-made global warming"! Yes, there are greenhouse gases, and they do keep the planet warm. What has been pretty thoroughly discredited, by data, is the "man-made global warming" theory..."

SL rise may not be a great indicator of AGW, since the increased warmth at the surface is only slowly moved to greater depths. The upper warm layer is only a few hundred meters deep, while further down, the temperature is slightly above freezing. That's the result of the Thermohaline Circulation, which constantly replenishes the deepest waters from sinking at high latitudes, where the surface cools to freeze during winter.

A better gauge to me is the now obvious changes in the Arctic sea-ice cycle, which shows an clear declining trend in the annual minimum extent. This year, as the sea-ice grows toward the yearly maximum, the extent is running below the 2 sigma range over the entire satellite record. In a few weeks, the melt season will begin and we will see whether this process results in another extreme in extent. Stay tuned...

Quoting 29. dabirds:

Not liking we're close to '54, hottest day ever in IL that year and one of the worst droughts. 6th warmest & 14th driest this winter doesn't help alleviate the foreboding.

Over original forecast high by 1, 62 w/ 22 dew pt, pressure has been dropping, below 30.2" now, still 10-15 WSW w/ 30 gust.

ChiTom, if ya have plans for those collectors, I'd be interested in seeing them. WUmail while still available?


And we're REALLY dry in the Mid Atlantic. (This also happened in 1976, our previous warmest february and it rectified that year)




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News & Blogs

Tropical Cyclone Enawo Kills 3 in Madagascar; Hundreds Left Homeless

Chris Dolce
Published: March 8, 2017


Tropical Cyclone Enawo has killed three people and left several hundred others homeless in Madagascar after making landfall there on Tuesday.

Buildings and schools were reportedly damaged by Enawo, according to the Associated Press. Nearly 500 people have been left homeless so far because of the destruction.

Among the three people that were killed was a 5-year-old child, L'Express de Madagascar reports. It also said that five people were injured by a landslide.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)


The above video was taken in Sambava, Madagascar around landfall on March 7.
Social media images from Antalaha, near where the center of Enawo made landfall, showed some of the damage the coastal town has suffered.

Flooding has also swamped some areas, including the town of Maroantsetra. More than a foot of rain fell in Sambava, on the far northern coast of Madagascar.

Heavy rains from Enawo could cause more flooding and mudslides into Thursday as the system moves southward across the country.

The severity of impacts could worsen in Madagascar as more details are received from remote areas and more flooding occurs.

According to NOAA's best track database, Enawo appeared to have been the strongest landfall in Madagascar, by peak estimated winds, since Gafilo made landfall as a Category 4-equivalent storm in roughly the same area of northeast Madagascar in March 2004, claiming 363 lives, according to the EM-DAT International Disaster Database. More than 20,000 homes were destroyed, according to MeteoFrance.

MORE: Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes







11S (South Indian Ocean):

Source

Edit: JTWC just posted "Tropical Cyclone 11S (Eleven) Warning #01 - Issued at 08/2100Z".
It's windy alright.

Quoting 35. 999Ai2016:

11S (South Indian Ocean):

Source

Edit: JTWC just posted "Tropical Cyclone 11S (Eleven) Warning #01 - Issued at 08/2100Z".


it's trying to become a moderate tropical storm..it's been like that for a few days now though.



Quoting 36. gr8lakebreeze:

It's windy alright.


howling here highest gust for the day as per pws 73kmh
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

Ready for Spring here in D.C.This sucky winter wants to drag on unfortunately! It hasn't done nothing and now wants to hold us hostage!
I hope ya haven't put the snow shovel away yet
Feb was march
march will be Feb
Quoting 40. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I hope ya haven't put the snow shovel away yet


I haven't turned on the water to outside spigots yet.
Or put out anything except broccoli seedlings which can take this cold.
Officially expecting low 20s Saturday morning but I'm leaning towards upper teens and this with wind here in the DC metro area.

Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Feb was march
march will be Feb


Spring in winter is followed by winter in spring. Old cynical George saying.
these 1 min satellite imagers are mind boggling.

incredible, stunning, and just wow. we are so lucky to live in an era where we have access to this truly unique perspective on clouds. you learn so much from seeing them work all together, like the intricate, intimate web that they are.

So, what green house gases caused it to be this warm 123 years ago? only the 6th warmest on record? LOL . If you look at the weather patterns based on your records by droughts and heat you can see a pattern. Plot the hottest years from dates where reading temps was taken seriously and then plot the wet years. I used the lake levels from the Army Corpes of engineers. Then plot the coldest years then plot the wettest years. You will be surprised what you see.
pws just recorded a 78kmh wind gust like a min ago

#46

Please, submit your er, "science" and see what peer review does with it.





Nmme? predicted flow is the same as last yr for cv season.
There should be a * on those NOAA graphs stating 'after adjustments'
The PBS News Hour has report up on the Larson "C" crack / iceberg. Should be good , Miles O'Brian reporting.
Best thing that ever happened to him , was when CNN fired him. Not up on the net yet.
46. Proveit

Do what ?
54. Leia
I am a bit surprised that they are saying bloom here was earlier this year. I live in NW Arizona and I track my "first bloom" date annually and this was my LATEST date for this. Not my earliest. Also, this was our COLDEST February in several years. I am guessing my area must be an exception to the rule.

FEBRUARY - MY AVERAGE TEMPS
2015: 55
2016: 54
2017: 51.4
Quoting 51. BuckStrider:

There should be a * on those NOAA graphs stating 'after adjustments'


Tell that to the polar sea ice .
Quoting 54. Leia:

I am a bit surprised that they are saying bloom here was earlier this year. I live in NW Arizona and I track my "first bloom" date annually and this was my LATEST date for this. Not my earliest. Also, this was our COLDEST February in several years. I am guessing my area must be an exception to the rule.

FEBRUARY - MY AVERAGE TEMPS
2015: 55�
2016: 54�
2017: 51.4�


Sit tight , it's coming your way ....

Some crazy winds and heavy damage on the west side of Rochester, NY. State of emergency in Greece, NY

https://www.wunderground.com/US/NY/014.html#PUB

Roc airport recorded a 81mph gust.
I drove through it, and it was enough to make me and others switch lanes involuntarily in a Subaru on the highway. Plenty of chaos with trees, limbs, and lines in the road. Large white-capped waves in small 1 acre ponds. Traffic lights unscrewing and falling, lots of power outages (100K customers last count). Whatever the case, the highest clear sky winds I have ever experienced.

I got home 20 miles away, and while plenty of winds, not nearly as severe. The low jet streak and mixing to ground level was fairly localized.
Hey everyone, if you don't feed the trolls they will eventually go away.
A Scribbler , Hilary in New Zealand , sends us this , 23 hours ahead od the West Coast -

Hilary / March 8, 2017
Ok, I hope like all other Scribblers we need to find something to cheer us up now and again. CB provides us music but you might care to watch this live feed for a while, scientifically proven to make you feel a bit better!


See the albatross chick here:
Quoting 59. hotroddan:


The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated. Especially with all the past scandals involving data being manipulated and changed so people are having a hard time believing the scientists. Also Climate Science is a fairly new science so researchers and scientists might be getting things wrong. This is why we need to take all this with a grain of salt.


No paid lairs funded by the richest corporations the world has ever seen , began an all out assault on a dagger pointed at their bottom line. And people with the critical thinking skills of a bag of hammers swallowed the whole thing hook line and sinker.
Quoting 59. hotroddan:


The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated. Especially with all the past scandals involving data being manipulated and changed so people are having a hard time believing the scientists. Also Climate Science is a fairly new science so researchers and scientists might be getting things wrong. This is why we need to take all this with a grain of salt.


Please read dat deep dish derp back to yourself, maybe slowly.

It is epic.

And thats like 11.5 years of observed comments.

Gratuitous ad.
added'





Quoting 59. hotroddan:


The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated. Especially with all the past scandals involving data being manipulated and changed so people are having a hard time believing the scientists. Also Climate Science is a fairly new science so researchers and scientists might be getting things wrong. This is why we need to take all this with a grain of salt.

Pro tip: You forgot to say 'Al Gore'.
Quoting 59. hotroddan:
Also Climate Science is a fairly new science

Please try to keep up -

Tyndall explained the heat in the Earth's atmosphere in terms of the capacities of the various gases in the air to absorb radiant heat, also known as infrared radiation. ... Prior to Tyndall it was widely surmised that the Earth's atmosphere has a Greenhouse Effect, but he was the first to prove it.

John Tyndall FRS (2 August 1820 – 4 December 1893) was a prominent Irish 19th-century physicist. His initial scientific fame arose in the 1850s from his study of diamagnetism. Later he made discoveries in the realms of infrared radiation and the physical properties of air. Tyndall also published more than a dozen science books which brought state-of-the-art 19th century experimental physics to a wide audience. From 1853 to 1887 he was professor of physics at the Royal Institution of Great Britain in London.



John Tyndall

He did all this before our Civil War, and no one has ever proved him wrong . If that is "new" to you, I've a Condo in Aleppo , I'd like to sell you.
Quoting 6. Gearsts:

Can't wait for hurricane season.

Don't know why the Dr doesn't do a blog about this. ;)
Quoting 45. earthisanocean:

these 1 min satellite imagers are mind boggling.

incredible, stunning, and just wow. we are so lucky to live in an era where we have access to this truly unique perspective on clouds. you learn so much from seeing them work all together, like the intricate, intimate web that they are.




hey can you guys link me the main page for the Sat
Quoting 63. no1der:



Pro tip: You forgot to say 'Al Gore'.

LOL .....
And "hoax" over and over , Benghazi three times , Whitewater once, Obama's birth, and "Jack D. Ripper's" speech from Dr Strange Love.

SSTs beginning to warm up in the far Eastern Atlantic... :)
Quoting 59. hotroddan:


The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated. Especially with all the past scandals involving data being manipulated and changed so people are having a hard time believing the scientists. Also Climate Science is a fairly new science so researchers and scientists might be getting things wrong. This is why we need to take all this with a grain of salt.


you expect us to just believe you? who do you think you are, god? you make claims, provide no proof. climate scientists make claims, provide endless proof. think i'll side with the climate scientists.

yes it is a new(ish) science, with lots still to be discovered *specifically about the atmosphere and the way it works, clouds for one are very complex and yet to be fully understood phenomena*, but the PHYSICS of green house gases, and heat energy as a driver for WEATHER, is settled and not up for debate.
Quoting 65. wunderkidcayman:



hey can you guys link me the main page for the Sat


theyre just doing daily loops atm, i think the full data starts coming out on march 16 BUT OMG ISNT IT SO EXCITING!!! even the simplest cloud formations, look insane from that high up at 1 min intervals

Link
Quoting 8. RedwoodCoast:
I'm struck by the difference in the statewide (CA) rain totals and what we get up here in my little corner of the state on the north coast. For example, our largest flood on record, and it was a HUGE flood, was in 1964, which appears to be one of the driest on record for the state as a whole.

California is a big state, I guess.
Precip is not as evenly distributed as people imagine.
Quoting 46. Proveit:



Correlation is NOT causation.
68. earthisanocean

Trust me, hotrodden drives a Chrysler Valiant here .

any upstate NY residents? seeing reports of winds peaking at 80 mph at the rochester airport. i have family up there and there are trees down and reports of 131,000 without power.

stay safe up there. don't go out if you don't need too.
Quoting 68. earthisanocean:



you expect us to just believe you? who do you think you are, god? you make claims, provide no proof. climate scientists make claims, provide endless proof. think i'll side with the climate scientists.

yes it is a new(ish) science, with lots still to be discovered *specifically about the atmosphere and the way it works, clouds for one are very complex and yet to be fully understood phenomena*, but the PHYSICS of green house gases, and heat energy as a driver for WEATHER, is settled and not up for debate.

What makes you believe that I think that I am God? I honestly have no idea of how you came up with that? Just because one experiment or study indicates something that doesn't mean that it can't "proven" otherwise. All I am saying is that it is possible for experiments/studies to be wrong so we should take them with a grain of salt.
spirals in the clouds, spirals in the ice. same substance, same movement, different places.

Quoting 61. RobertWC:



No paid lairs funded by the richest corporations the world has ever seen , began an all out assault on a dagger pointed at their bottom line. And people with the critical thinking skills of a bag of hammers swallowed the whole thing hook line and sinker.

Just to clear things up, my comment didn't indicate anything about corporations attacking science.
Quoting 73. RobertWC:

68. earthisanocean

Trust me, hotrodden drives a Chrysler Valiant here .



Lol nice try, but not even close to what I drive.
Quoting 75. hotroddan:


What makes you believe that I think that I am God? I honestly have no idea of how you came up with that? Just because one experiment or study indicates something that doesn't mean that it can't "proven" otherwise. All I am saying is that it is possible for experiments/studies to be wrong so we should take them with a grain of salt.


mostly, you're claims without evidence! god expects you to believe he exists without providing evidence. you are doing the same. this was your first line : 'The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated.'

YOU said that, with alot of authority, and no evidence. that's what made me think of god. again, the physics and basic science of climate change, and specifically GLOBAL WARMING are not up for debate. theres a slight more debate about the causes of it but not really. ive always though of it like this..put your hand on a tailpipe while an engine is running. that is HEAT, and HEAT ENERGY being pumped out constantly and in huge amounts, since the mid 1800's. if you don't understand how that could heat our atmosphere (which is a closed system) ask some questions! because it's fact. like another poster stated, the idea of human burning of fossil fuels affecting the environment has been known for a LONG time.

we all know the 97% vs 3% comparability among climate scientists, and while the 3% shouldnt be ignored, the idea that climate science as it is could still be disproven is kind of like saying gravity could be disproven. which it can't, and neither can the facts of climate science and human's impact on said climate. the science and research that has gone into global warming is past the point where we should take it with a grain of salt, in my opinion anyway.
See no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil, and believe anything. Only willingly does one go to the well of ignorance when the well to springs of truth are on a road well lit, verifiable, and easily seen in the world around us in undeniable ways. Seek the truth not hit pieces by debunked shill heads paid for by the very ones who seek to destroy the world's environment for the God awful love of money.
Quoting 78. hotroddan:


Lol nice try, but not even close to what I drive.



...yeah'
Quoting 77. hotroddan:


Just to clear things up, my comment didn't indicate anything about corporations attacking science.


Tell that to the tobacco companies , because the fossil fuel gang is using their same old template. And folks like yourself are being taken in , it's very old game . And you are their target. Those who never learn the past are doomed to repeat it.
Quoting 79. earthisanocean:



mostly, you're claims without evidence! god expects you to believe he exists without providing evidence. you are doing the same. this was your first line The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated.

YOU said that, with alot of authority, and no evidence. that's what made me think of god. again, the physics and basic science of climate change, and specifically GLOBAL WARMING are not up for debate. theres a slight more debate about the causes of it but not really. ive always though of it like this..put your hand on a tailpipe while an engine is running. that is HEAT, and HEAT ENERGY being pumped out constantly and in huge amounts, since the mid 1800's. if you don't understand how that could heat our atmosphere (which is a closed system) ask some questions! because it's fact. we all know the 97% vs 3% comparability among climate scientists, and while the 3% shouldnt be ignored, the idea that climate science as it is could still be disproven is kind of like saying gravity could be disproven. which it can't, and neither can the facts of climate science and human's impact on said climate. the science and research that has gone into global warming is past the point where we should take it with a grain of salt, in my opinion anyway.

I believe in God because I have Faith in the Lord. Oh BTW, there actually is lots of proof that God exists. I was not trying to talk with a lot of "authority". There also have been proven instances where scientists have manipulated data to show what they want. I was also using logical reasoning to state that even though a study or experiment says that something is true that it sometimes isn't always true. For example: long ago people thought that the Sun revolved around the Earth which, in reality the Earth and planets revolve around the Sun.
Quoting 59. hotroddan:


The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated. Especially with all the past scandals involving data being manipulated and changed so people are having a hard time believing the scientists. Also Climate Science is a fairly new science so researchers and scientists might be getting things wrong. This is why we need to take all this with a grain of salt.

I ask you these questions; Why do you question climate science, but not something like genetic modification, the scientific studies that say tobacco is bad for you, or the fact that CFCs destroy the Ozone layer? Those are all relatively new sciences, yet you eat food with GMOs every day, have seen the ozone hole grow and now begin to heal with the banning of CFCs, and most likely would agree tobacco is bad for you. What is it about climate change that makes you skeptical about it over these scientific studies and facts?
Quoting 67. HurricaneFan:


SSTs beginning to warm up in the far Eastern Atlantic... :)


edited
and cooling in the Nino regions especially 1 2

Quoting 69. earthisanocean:



theyre just doing daily loops atm, i think the full data starts coming out on march 16 BUT OMG ISNT IT SO EXCITING!!! even the simplest cloud formations, look insane from that high up at 1 min intervals

Link


cool thanks
March 16 really I thought it wasn't to be till May 15th

Quoting 78. hotroddan:


Lol nice try, but not even close to what I drive.


hehe still not my Aston Martin
Quoting 58. MahFL:

Hey everyone, if you don't feed the trolls they will eventually go away.

Just because they deny climate change doesn't automatically make them a troll. Sometimes people are just misinformed in the field of climate science (or any other science for that matter)
Quoting 83. hotroddan:


I believe in God because I have Faith in the Lord. Oh BTW, there actually is lots of proof that God exists. I was not trying to talk with a lot of "authority". There also have been proven instances where scientists have manipulated data to show what they want. I was also using logical reasoning to state that even though a study or experiment says that something is true that it sometimes isn't always true. For example: long ago people thought that the Sun revolved around the Earth which, in reality the Earth and planets revolve around the Sun.


Quoting 59. hotroddan:


The problem with Climate Science is that a considerable amount of the facts are skewed and the data is manipulated. Especially with all the past scandals involving data being manipulated and changed so people are having a hard time believing the scientists. Also Climate Science is a fairly new science so researchers and scientists might be getting things wrong. This is why we need to take all this with a grain of salt.

No, you're just mistaken. The facts are not skewed, nor are (is) the data manipulated...at least by scientists. If you have solid evidence otherwise, now would be a good time to post it.
I was also using logical reasoning to state that even though a study or experiment says that something is true that it sometimes isn't always true.

Please, tell us about your yute'

Quoting 58. MahFL:

Hey everyone, if you don't feed the trolls they will eventually go away.

I have been online close to two decades. I have yet to see that occur without a ban hammer. It's a nice thought, though.
hotroddan, I too am a man of faith. I have informed myself on truth across a broad spectrum. The essence of God is truth. Truth is an absolute. Why I have carefully studied AGW, done my research, read all I can get my hands on. For if we love Him, then we must also care for his creation. We must not be swayed by lies and extreme manipulation from those who's love of money drives everything they do to deny the truth.
93. bwi
All the flowering trees blooming like crazy in my part of DC area. Smells like spring.

Then this

Quoting 92. DeepSeaRising:

hotroddan, I too am a man of faith. I have informed myself on truth across a broad spectrum. The essence of God is truth. Truth is an absolute. Why I have carefully studied AGW, done my research, read all I can get my hands on. For if we love Him, then we must also care for his creation. We must not be swayed by lies and extreme manipulation from those who's love of money drives everything they do to deny the truth.


i am not a man of faith, but have great respect for this statement, and your thinking. much love!
Only one climate article in Science Daily today. Never seen that happen on a regular work day. Very thin selection.

US desert songbirds at risk in a warming climate

Spring Came Early. Scientists Say Climate Change Is a Culprit.



Photon Jump (NASA video)
Quoting 93. bwi:

All the flowering trees blooming like crazy in my part of DC area. Smells like spring.

Then this






Thats gonna be a drag on the Faux Spring set in. The Jet Stream is going to just get loopier as we warm Globally as the pressure changes between the mid and higher latitude cells gets more skewed.



The forcing's known are outweighed now by the unknown ones popping up like mushrooms in a cow field.



The warming continues..unabated.

Quoting 89. Misanthroptimist:


No, you're just mistaken. The facts are not skewed, nor are (is) the data manipulated...at least by scientists. If you have solid evidence otherwise, now would be a good time to post it.

Yes actually there have been instances where "scientists" have manipulated data. East Anglola climate scandal for example.
Quoting 85. MrTornadochase:


I ask you these questions; Why do you question climate science, but not something like genetic modification, the scientific studies that say tobacco is bad for you, or the fact that CFCs destroy the Ozone layer? Those are all relatively new sciences, yet you eat food with GMOs every day, have seen the ozone hole grow and now begin to heal with the banning of CFCs, and most likely would agree tobacco is bad for you. What is it about climate change that makes you skeptical about it over these scientific studies and facts?

The fact that some "scientists" have been proven to have manipulated data is why I am skeptical. I believe that Tobacco is bad for you because I have seen lots of concrete proof. And yes CFCs have impacted ozone levels although the severity of the impact is marginal. I am going to leave for the evening so I will not be commenting tonight after this.

One final thought: My main point is that we should take ALL science with a grain of salt. Even the commonly accepted facts because they still could be wrong. Because if people long ago didn't challenge the status quo of what was generally accepted then we might still believe things such as the Sun revolves around the Earth instead of vice versa and that maggots can spontaneously appear on objects old meat. Anyways I wish I could continue the debate but I am too tired to do so. Good Night Ya'll.

Edit: Of course I think we should do our best (within reason) to take care of the planet, don't get me wrong I am not opposed to that.
Diagram of the four seasons and four cardinal directions, from a copy of Isidore's De natura rerum: copied by 8 female scribes at Munsterblisen, c. 1130–1174, earliest European medieval book known to be crafted by women.

Quoting 91. Misanthroptimist:


I have been online close to two decades. I have yet to see that occur without a ban hammer. It's a nice thought, though.


I gave my Apple 2C to my mother she went online with dial up, genealogists were some of the first adopters with email.

At Christmas I would give her stamps. She had a huge stamp habit . She wrote a book with that stamp habit. Email changed her world forever.
I emailed her from the cab of my tractor trailer one night I was at the marker of the "Battle of Blue Licks" the last fight of the Revolution. That was over 18 years ago.
She always talked about this guy in our family , and the "Battle of Blue Licks", I always thought he was there. That night over email , she told me our guy married the widow of the man who died at the "Battle of Blue Licks", she had 7 children . She always loved him for marrying a widow with 7 kids.

My mother was a great American , she showed me where old black men were worth a penny on the slaves rolls.
100. bwi
Dan, the East Anglia so-called scandal was investigated over and over -- there was no scandal and no data were manipulated.

Please don't base your opinions on the manipulations of Russian intelligence services.

We have enough Russian trolls doing drive-bys on the blog already, we don't need regulars taking that nonsense and propaganda at face value.
Quoting 97. hotroddan:



Absolutely nothing you claim is supported by any evidence. Indeed what evidence that exists runs completely counter to your assertions. In any dispute between faith and evidence, evidence will always win in the long run.
In this splendid 12th century diagram, the winds speak: "I hurl thunderbolts!" "I adorn the Earth with flowers!" "From me comes hail!"

12th century copy of De natura rerum, originally from 703 AD, England.

I am a man of faith.


I am a man of reason.

Reason , not faith gave you the ability to tell us you believe in faith.
sounds reasonable to me.
102. BaltimoreBrian

I for one, welcome our 12th century overlords.

Only because it shows what a very long slow crawl it has been to the Goes satellite.
All this B/S greenhouse gases!
When Luther and Gutenberg came on the seance , neither had any idea the other was at work. Was that reason , or faith ?
Anna Atkins' stunning algae picture from 1843, very first photo to be published in a book.

Quoting 106. gulfbreeze:

All this B/S greenhouse gases!


Thanks for your detailed "thinking".
110. MahFL
Quoting 83. hotroddan:


For example: long ago people thought that the Sun revolved around the Earth which, in reality the Earth and planets revolve around the Sun.


Comparing peoples understanding of the Solar System in the 1500's and the knowledge of global warming in 2017 are not exactly the same...
Luther and Gutenberg

Made the modern world. They overthrew the old world , neither of them ever met. They never plotted. One was at his task, the other was at his passion. Together they changed the our world.

If this was faith at work, it was reason that won. If they both had faith, otherwise we would have 100 million monks writing all our books , and pigeons would be flying our comments.
What is the deal with everyone being a member since 12/31/1969?
Quoting 109. RobertWC:



Thanks for your detailed "thinking".
It came from NOAA LOL.
Quoting 112. gulfbreeze:

What is the deal with everyone being a member since 12/31/1969?
That's a common default date, particularly in UNIX.
Quoting 93. bwi:

All the flowering trees blooming like crazy in my part of DC area. Smells like spring.

Then this


spring death everything gone or close to it
Quoting 112. gulfbreeze:

What is the deal with everyone being a member since 12/31/1969?
hal is having issue and is forgetting everyone
All joking aside I am ready for Hurricane season!
I am really sick of the cowardice of the word "faith" . It's a code word for I am lazy, and not really bright.
How did the Penguins get to da Ark?

: P
Quoting 116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hal is having issue and is forgetting everyone


Do not bring me into your IBM woes, as no HAL9000 has ever made a mistake.

My biggest problem is I like warm weather.
Quoting 122. gulfbreeze:

My biggest problem is I like warm weather.


Get ready, it's about to get a lot warmer.
Quoting 118. RobertWC:

I am really sick of the cowardice of the word "faith" . It's a code word for I am lazy, and not really bright.

You just don't understand what faith is all about it's believing in something you can't see.
My faith in God guides me, it is by nature the intrinsic belief in the unseen. My logic leads me to believe that history, love, humanity, and the natural elements strongly argue for there to be God. The case for Christ is one of the strongest for my faith in a loving God in a fallen world. I believe strongly that science and God are not at odds at all.
What elements make up the human body? The same found in dirt. Same exact ones.
Quoting 125. DeepSeaRising:

My faith in God guides me, it is by nature the intrinsic belief in the unseen. My logic leads me to believe that history, love, humanity, and the natural elements strongly argue for there to be God. The case for Christ is one of the strongest for my faith in a loving God in a fallen world. I believe strongly that science and God are not at odds at all.

Well said.
All you Gulf Coast fans , understand this , Hell is coming to breakfast. And it's going to hit you first.

Your orange trees are dying. But a huge army of other tiny creatures are coming. I for one can't wait for when one shows up, and eats all your grass.
Faith in God, no faith in God, we can still come together for general truth that betters our neighbors and stops the run away train that AGW is. Stop the banksters and political machine that has bankrupted the world and stop Big Oil from further crippling the effort to fight what is to come via climate change. We are over 100 trillion in debt in the world as a whole. Now ask yourself in debt to whom? Top 1% have raked in over 50 trillion in profit over the last two decades. Time we all come together over truth and end this false divide of two party nonsense that has made us powerless as a people.
Quoting 97. hotroddan:


Yes actually there have been instances where "scientists" have manipulated data. East Anglola climate scandal for example.


No it wasn't. Furthermore, in order to substantiate such an idiotic claim then you'd also need to have a global conspiracy as ALL data sets would have to have been manipulated, going back to the 1800's. Not only is that impossible, but it is also impossibly stupid.

And it wouldn't just be the temperature records that would have needed forging. Tide gauge data would need to be forged. Satellite data would need to be forged. Extreme weather data would need to be forged. Even fundamental physics and chemistry THAT WE USE EVERY FREAKIN' DAY would have to have been forged.

You really have no idea the breadth or depth that such a conspiracy would need to entail, and quite frankly it just makes you look like an idiot whenever you try to bring up such nonsense. Global warming isn't happening because a temperature record says the globe is warming. Global warming is happening because of physics and chemistry. Temperature is a symptom/side effect of the physics and chemistry.

Global warming was predicted 120 years ago. It's older than relativity.

Quoting 97. hotroddan:
The fact that some "scientists" have been proven to have manipulated data is why I am skeptical.


No you're not. You aren't skeptical. You don't even know what a scientific skeptic is. Your willing to throw out over a century's worth of research across multiple branches of science over some idiotic made up BS right wing nut jobs have been pushing to fatten the wallets of fossil fuel companies. Exxon itself had research concluding that global warming would become an existential threat and that was back in the 80's.

You're not being skeptical. You're being willfully ignorant if not outright stupid. Your argument is akin to saying smoking is good for you because you know some people who smoke and never got cancer.

Quoting 97. hotroddan:
I believe that Tobacco is bad for you because I have seen lots of concrete proof.


Oh you have, have you? Have you personally biopsied a pulmonary carcinoma tumor? Have you personally done a radiological analysis and tocxiclogical study of lung tissue of people who have died from smoking? Have you personally run a VOx analysis of smokers to verify reduced O2 utilization?

Oh so you haven't. How do you know scientists aren't faking that data? How do you know their data isn't manipulated? How do you know that there isn't some global conspiracy that has it out for the global tobacco industry? I mean, those malignant growths induced from mutagens could have easily come from something else besides the polonium and other heavy metals that permeate cigarette smoke.

And I have proof to. Those scientists hired by big tobacco back in the 50's and 60's ran studies and showed that not only was smoking not bad for you, it was good for you. So obviously it's a big liberal conspiracy against the tobacco companies.

That sounds pretty stupid, doesn't it.

Quoting 97. hotroddan:
And yes CFCs have impacted ozone levels although the severity of the impact is marginal.


Right, since you've demonstrated your remarkable breadth of knowledge in regards to chemistry so well.

The severity of the impact is not "marginal". CFCs initiate a chlorine catalyzed chain reaction that eats through ozone like a glutton eats through an all-u-can-eat buffet. For ^&%@'s sake, you can set this up in any college chemistry lab. Put ozone in a cyclinder. Add a miniscule amount of CFC's. Expose it to UV. Now analyze the resulting compounds. Well golly gosh darn gee whizz willickers, where the hell did all the ozone go?

Basic. Undergraduate. Chemistry.

Quoting 97. hotroddan:
I am going to leave for the evening so I will not be commenting tonight after this.

One final thought: My main point is that we should take ALL science with a grain of salt.


Science is an evidence based discipline which makes it damn sight more reliable than a random internet troll who clearly has no idea what he/she is talking about. As with all things science related, you either put up or shut up. If you have have a detailed analysis on how science got it wrong with supporting evidence, by all means provide. Your ignorance does not have the same weight as their facts.

Quoting 97. hotroddan:
Even the commonly accepted facts because they still could be wrong. Because if people long ago didn't challenge the status quo of what was generally accepted then we might still believe things such as the Sun revolves around the Earth instead of vice versa and that maggots can spontaneously appear on objects old meat.


They challenged the status quo using the PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, in which you provide OBSERVATIONS AND EVIDENCE to support a HYPOTHESIS. All of which you have not done. All you've done is thrown about half-baked idiotic conspiracies and thinly veiled character attacks based out of willful ignorance. In short, you're acting very presidential.

Quoting 97. hotroddan:

Anyways I wish I could continue the debate but I am too tired to do so. Good Night Ya'll.

Edit: Of course I think we should do our best (within reason) to take care of the planet, don't get me wrong I am not opposed to that.


I'm not opposed to treating my cancer, I'm just going to drink ginger tea for it because I refuse to actually educate myself about the problem and deal with it in any logical way.
126. gulfbreeze

You are not part of this glee to see most powerful things nature can make. It is the cheering of cyclones to which I hate. It brings death , and they think it a game.

This cheering of cyclones that really stinks .

I for one am sick of it.

Every storm destroys peoples lives to death . Big or Little.

To treat these storms as a some sort of game for us, really turns my gut.
deep we know but this is not the place
Quoting 124. gulfbreeze:


You just don't understand what faith is all about it's believing in something you can't see.


That is not what faith is. However, this is not a blog about philosophy or ancient myths.
Xyrus2000......you forgot one thing. Let me get this for you...... [Mic Drop] There ya go. Anyone know how to do surgery on a troll? He just got the hammer of truth dropped on him and it's not looking good.
forecasted Sunday daytime highs

145. rbenn

Quoting 97. hotroddan:


Yes actually there have been instances where "scientists" have manipulated data. East Anglola climate scandal for example.
The fact that some "scientists" have been proven to have manipulated data is why I am skeptical. I believe that Tobacco is bad for you because I have seen lots of concrete proof. And yes CFCs have impacted ozone levels although the severity of the impact is marginal. I am going to leave for the evening so I will not be commenting tonight after this.

One final thought: My main point is that we should take ALL science with a grain of salt. Even the commonly accepted facts because they still could be wrong. Because if people long ago didn't challenge the status quo of what was generally accepted then we might still believe things such as the Sun revolves around the Earth instead of vice versa and that maggots can spontaneously appear on objects old meat. Anyways I wish I could continue the debate but I am too tired to do so. Good Night Ya'll.

Edit: Of course I think we should do our best (within reason) to take care of the planet, don't get me wrong I am not opposed to that.
Thanks for your edit clarifying your commitment to taking care of the earth.  Keeping it comfortably habitable seems reasonable and if there is _any_ chance that the earth might become difficult for humans to live on, we need to take a few precautions.  If we decide everything is fine, do nothing, and then it turns out the earth is warming, it will be very hard on a lot of folks.  If we decide to clean up, and it turns out the earth is not warming, we have a cleaner environment and healthier people!   Anyway, here are some thoughts and a couple of resources.

_re:  East Anglola "climategate"

If you would be open to exploring the demise of the controversy, Wikipedia has links to investigation reports:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_U nit_email_controversy

_re: grains of salt

It is important, as you said, to be wary of mistakes.  It is vital to replicate results and verify outcomes.  This has been done to the point where most earth scientists are convinced.  A survey published in 2009 found that 90% of earth scientists agreed that the earth had warmed.  If you looked at the climatologists who were actively researching the topic, the number agreeing was roughly 97%.  (The report is freely available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009EO0 30002/pdf).  Past a certain point, it becomes hard to argue with the accumulated evidence.  If that survey was repeated today, the number agreeing might be larger. 

_re: looking at it with nothing but common sense

Try a thought experiment. 

It has been known for a long time that CO2 captures and holds heat that would otherwise be going back out into space.  There are other sources of additional heat (fossil fuel burning, nuclear power), but just think about the CO2 heat for starters.  If that heat does not go back into space, where is it going? 

If you put a blanket over yourself, the heat from your body cannot escape and you get warmer.  The earth has a blanket of CO2 and if that heat cannot be dumped somewhere, the earth will warm. 

Now, try to think of how we might get rid of the additional heat we absorb from the sun.  Can you think of one?  Without some mechanism to get of the extra heat, warming is inevitable.

Quoting 138. Xyrus2000:



That is not what faith is. However, this is not a blog about philosophy or ancient myths.

It depends on how you look at it to each his own. Faith is not a myth.
From the hills of South Salem, Oregon. It felt like February was wet and it was. Both Portland and Salem broke records for February precipitation. At Portland International Airport they recorded 13.36 inches which broke the old record of 13.03 in 1996. Record keeping began in 1940.

In Salem the new February record is 13.41 inches breaking the old record of 13.01 inches set in 1996. Salem records go back to 1895.

And the wetness had continued into March. I don't think there has been a day in March without some precipitation and the next week has a chance of precipitation forecast for every day. On Sunday night and Monday morning we got about 2 inches of slushy snow up here in the hills but only about an inch down on the valley floor. It caused very little problem with travel and was pretty much gone by Monday night.
Quoting 8. RedwoodCoast:

I'm struck by the difference in the statewide (CA) rain totals and what we get up here in my little corner of the state on the north coast. For example, our largest flood on record, and it was a HUGE flood, was in 1964, which appears to be one of the driest on record for the state as a whole.

California is a big state, I guess.

Yes, the 1964 flood was huge in Oregon and Northern California. The Eel River hit 752,000 cubic feet per second, more than the average yearly discharge of the entire Mississippi basin.
Link

Chicago had winds up to 60 mph. Streets closed. Skydeck closed.
Quoting 138. Xyrus2000:



That is not what faith is. However, this is not a blog about philosophy or ancient myths.


Faith is simply putting your trust in something, with no particular context. I could have faith in my professor, my parents, my friends, climate forecasts, whatever it might be.
152. MahFL
Quoting 125. DeepSeaRising:

I believe strongly that science and God are not at odds at all.


Hmm, I disagree, if your wearing a robe and sandals you can't physically walk on water...
Quoting 144. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Yeah, living up north sucks. I'm so glad I live down here.
Quoting 83. hotroddan:


I believe in God because I have Faith in the Lord. Oh BTW, there actually is lots of proof that God exists. I was not trying to talk with a lot of "authority". There also have been proven instances where scientists have manipulated data to show what they want. I was also using logical reasoning to state that even though a study or experiment says that something is true that it sometimes isn't always true. For example: long ago people thought that the Sun revolved around the Earth which, in reality the Earth and planets revolve around the Sun.


If you believe that the Earth and the other planets revolve around the Sun, why do you deny the critical facts of human caused climate change? You must understand there is nothing heroic about denying science in the name of God, it only makes a bad example of what you believe. If for example, all climate scientists tried to cover up that the Earth was warming due to oil money, despite that the science of the Earth warming is truth, would not their witness be ruined by spreading falsehoods in the name of science?


I'm Christian myself. Lookup Katharine Hayhoe, she is a Christian and a climate scientist. She does a good job at explaining how there's no good excuse to not believe in global warming if you're a Christian. She also explains how that it's the oil industry's corruption of the Republican party, which is heavily tied to a lot of Church attenders in America, that has led to climate skepticism among Christians, not theology by any means.
Quoting 45. earthisanocean:

these 1 min satellite imagers are mind boggling.

incredible, stunning, and just wow. we are so lucky to live in an era where we have access to this truly unique perspective on clouds. you learn so much from seeing them work all together, like the intricate, intimate web that they are.



I can't wait until we get a shot like this of a tropical cyclone in the gulf with sunset approaching.
Quoting 154. Jedkins01:



If you believe that the Earth and the other planets revolve around the Sun, why do you deny the critical facts of human caused climate change? You must understand there is nothing heroic about denying science in the name of God, it only makes a bad example of what you believe. If for example, all climate scientists tried to cover up that the Earth was warming due to oil money, despite that the science of the Earth warming is truth, would not their witness be ruined by spreading falsehoods in the name of science?


I'm Christian myself. Lookup Katharine Hayhoe, she is a Christian and a climate scientist. She does a good job at explaining how there's no good excuse to not believe in global warming if you're a Christian. She also explains how that it's the oil industry's corruption of the Republican party, which is heavily tied to a lot of Church attenders in America, that has led to climate skepticism among Christians, not theology by any means.

There's much more to Climate Change with regards to human activities than just burning fossil fuels, as much as our mainstream information wants us to believe. There's another half of the story that our mainstream media and climate activists don't talk about or know about that involves the fact that animal agriculture and cattle actually produce more greenhouse gases through methane from their waste and excrement than all the carbon dioxide from our transportation combined. But telling people they have to change their diets and eat less or outright stop stop eating meat and dairy products to fight against climate change and environmental pollution doesn't sell very well for businesses like greenpeace, the climate reality project, TPP, the rainforest action network, ect. Here's a documentary to further elaborate on this hidden secret:
Link
157. elioe
JTWC shows 40 kt for TC 11S.



Meteo-France hasn't upgraded the system yet... perhaps we'll have Fernando at 12Z ?
first contact. chris bertish sup'er seems to have it in the bag. a paddle from Morocco to Antiqua across the atlantic atm is reaching a climax. bet he pops a few cold ones tonight.


Well with the cold shot coming in for the next week or so, we *might* see a very late maximum ice extent for the Great Lakes. Unofficially it was about 15% back in February.

Also for the curious, check out this MODIS imagery, can't get it to display correctly, but here's the link...you can see how stirred up Lake Erie and Lake St Clair are from all the winds yesterday. Only time I've seen them that brown before is after a major rainstorm.

Link
Quoting 141. DeepSeaRising:

Xyrus2000......you forgot one thing. Let me get this for you...... [Mic Drop] There ya go. Anyone know how to do surgery on a troll? He just got the hammer of truth dropped on him and it's not looking good.


Trollhammer
mic drop
@hotroddan


Image source

---------------

Quoting Katherine Hayhoe, a climate scientist and evangelical Christian:

[...] Where are we Christians getting the idea that the science is fake? Those ideas don’t originate with our pastors or our Christian leaders (although many of them propagate the ideas). It’s the conservative media, whose values and ideology many of us evangelicals agree with and trust, who are telling us it’s not real. There’s nothing in the Bible that says it isn’t.

In Genesis, the Bible says that we humans were given responsibility over “every living thing” on this planet. It talks about how choices have consequences, and how we are called to love others as Christ loved us. All of this is compatible with caring for the creation with which God has entrusted us and, even more, caring for others who are being harmed by our actions or our neglect. But what’s happened? We’ve confused our politics with our faith. We have integrated what we’re being told by secular sources into our faith communities to such an extent that I get letters from pastors saying, “You’re not a Christian. You should repent from your evil sins, because you’re worshiping the earth.”

There is nothing in the Bible that says that you can’t be a Christian if you care about creation and what climate change is doing to it. The problem is really not with our faith. The problem is that for many of us, we’ve forgotten what our faith is.

[...]

Treating climate change as a “belief” puts it in direct opposition to the Christian faith when, in reality, nothing could be further from the truth. One of my favourite verses is Hebrews 11:1, which defines faith for us as the “evidence of things not seen”. If I could have jogged the author’s elbow way back then, I would have said, “Hey! You’re forgetting the other half–science, which is the evidence of what we do see all around us.”

God’s creation is telling us that it’s running a fever. No belief is required: it’s just what the thermometers say. Not only that, but birds, trees, bugs, beetles, ice sheets, and more than 26,500 other “natural thermometers” are telling us the planet is warming. The real question is not, “Are you willing to join the church of Al Gore?” but “Do you agree with what God’s creation is telling us is happening, and the responsibility God has given us to care for it?”

[...]

In terms of faith, we’ve already talked about the Biblical mandate for creation care, stewardship, and loving others. Rejection of the human role in, and responsibility for, climate change is a rejection of the responsibilities God has given us. Even worse, though, it alters our faith. It robs us of much of what God has given us — the love, joy, peace, love, forbearance, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness and self-control that are the fruit of the Spirit. Instead, it makes our faith a source of rancour, strife, judgmentalism and even greed, hoarding our rights to a comfortable life without regard for its impacts on our brothers and sisters who have less than we do now, and in the future. This isn’t our real faith. Our real faith is safe and secure, unthreatened by what God’s own creation is telling us through science.
Some philosophical issues this morning; I will keep it simple in the frequent words of my very wise Mother in Law; you take care of and maintain your car and it will take care of you; you take care of and maintain your house and it will take care of you; you eat healthy and exercise and your body will take care of you.

When it comes to the Earth we only have one; we should maintain and take care of it also.

Quoting 156. Ryan1000:


There's much more to Climate Change with regards to human activities than just burning fossil fuels, as much as our mainstream information wants us to believe. There's another half of the story that our mainstream media and climate activists don't talk about or know about that involves the fact that animal agriculture and cattle actually produce more greenhouse gases through methane from their waste and excrement than all the carbon dioxide from our transportation combined. But telling people they have to change their diets and eat less or outright stop stop eating meat and dairy products to fight against climate change and environmental pollution doesn't sell very well for businesses like greenpeace, the climate reality project, TPP, the rainforest action network, ect. Here's a documentary to further elaborate on this hidden secret:
Link

There's no hidden secret about the contribution from animal agriculture and cattle.

Read more at Skeptical Science and Greenpeace.



High-Res Download (PDF)
Here is the Conus forecast for today and current look:



And tropical cyclone 11S in the Indian Ocean behind Enawo: pretty sheared at the moment (the JTWC shot is from yesterday and the image below is from this morning):





And the convective outlook for Conus today and Drought Monitor issued this morning: California is on the mend but the North Georgia region needs some rain again. It looks like the rain set-up today might bring some relief in that direction:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor

From The Hill:

Overnight Energy: Trump’s climate order pushed back

CLIMATE ORDER NOT COMING THIS WEEK: President Trump's executive order to start rolling back the Clean Power Plan is "unlikely" to be signed this week, according to a White House official.

The official told Greenwire Wednesday that the order "may be pushed to next week." The official did not provide further details or timing information, according to the report.

White House officials had previously said that the executive order would be signed this week.

The order is expected to instruct the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to start the process of repealing former President Barack Obama's landmark climate rule for power plants, fulfilling a key campaign promise Trump made.

It will be the second presidential action aimed at undoing a major Obama EPA rule, following on last week's order to unravel the Waters of the United States rule.

Click here to read more.



Great article this morning in Science Mag on how Met weather balloons burst when they reach altitude; the amazing video is in the article link below: so far up you can clearly see the curvature of the Earth as well as outer space; amazing vid:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/watch-expl osive-demise-weather-balloon


Meteorologists worldwide send hundreds of weather balloons skyward every day, but it's not often that people get to see them burst, something that usually happens dozens of kilometers overhead. Problem solved, thanks to the images captured by a GoPro camera dangling a few meters beneath one such balloon recently lofted near Boulder, Colorado. Typically about 1.5 meters in diameter when they are released and about 10 meters across when they burst 90 minutes or so later, the instrument-laden balloons fail at a weak spot and then shred to pieces as fissures race to a point opposite the blowout. The burst unfolds in less than one-tenth of a second, the researchers report this week in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The cloud left in the wake of the burst is a powder that prevents the inside surface of the balloon from sticking together before it's inflated. More than 90% of weather balloons burst between the altitudes of 29 and 32 kilometers (and between temperatures of - 40 C to -75 C, respectively), the researchers note. In dry regions prone to static electricity, the scientists fill their balloons with non burning helium. But in humid areas where sparks are much less common, they inflate the balloons with flammable hydrogen, which is about half as weighty and allows for faster ascents.
Quoting 154. Jedkins01:



If you believe that the Earth and the other planets revolve around the Sun, why do you deny the critical facts of human caused climate change? You must understand there is nothing heroic about denying science in the name of God, it only makes a bad example of what you believe. If for example, all climate scientists tried to cover up that the Earth was warming due to oil money, despite that the science of the Earth warming is truth, would not their witness be ruined by spreading falsehoods in the name of science?


I'm Christian myself. Lookup Katharine Hayhoe, she is a Christian and a climate scientist. She does a good job at explaining how there's no good excuse to not believe in global warming if you're a Christian. She also explains how that it's the oil industry's corruption of the Republican party, which is heavily tied to a lot of Church attenders in America, that has led to climate skepticism among Christians, not theology by any means.


It's hard to take anyone seriously that blames the "oil industry's corruption of the Republican Party" without also pointing a finger at the oil industry's corruption of the Democratic Party! Soros, the driving force/major contributor of the Dems, makes a great deal off of oil. Worse yet, he does it in regions of the world that pale in comparison to the US in "clean" regulations. I do not believe the proper traction will be gained with climate change until it stops being used as a party platform. Both political parties in the US are corrupted by the exact same folks...follow the campaign contributions and you'll see for yourself!
In talking about religion posts on here about you can't be a xtian, blah blah blah. Most evangelical xtians believe that Jeebus is going to come back soon, so why bother. Plain and simple. If this hurts any egos, tough.
The breadbasket of the west, right after the bison were killed off it..the soil contained ~20% carbon. After a few generations of chemical farming the carbon content has been reduced to 5%(much of the difference went to the atmosphere). Waste grassland environments take up and sequester much more carbon when they have animals grazing on them then when they do not. Rotational grazing and good pasture practices increase your greenhouse gas sequestering. Cloven hoofs trod manure into the earth as well as aerates soil and the act of grazing tears roots below the surface trapping carbon underground. Each acre of well maintained, pasture fed animals takes the equivalent of ~5.5 tons of CO2 from the air and puts it underground each year. Proper kept pastured animals improve the soil, reduce greenhouse gases and are much healthier for humans to eat than feedlot animals. Grassfed is more expensive since feedlot takes all the short cuts by feeding antibiotics, hormones and grain, while releasing much of it's waste to the atmosphere, gassy septic systems and waterways. The newer studies that take into account that grassfed digestion don't produce as much greenhouse gases to begin with and how much grazing animals are actually sequestering greenhouse gases show that eating grassfed local meats and dairy can actually reduce greenhouse gases.
good morning
all systems are a go for cold and rounds of snow

CPC March ENSO Update has Neutral thru most of the Summer and El Nino by late Summer or Fall.

EL NIO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
09 March 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Nio development into the fall.

La Nia conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Nio index values were -0.3C in the westernmost Nio-4 and Nio-3.4 regions, and 1.5C in the easternmost Nio-1 2 region [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during January and was slightly positive when averaged across the eastern Pacific [Fig. 3], a reflection of above-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds were near average. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.

Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral (3-month average Nio-3.4 index between -0.5C and 0.5C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Nio as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017). Because of typically high uncertainty in forecasts made at this time of the year for the upcoming spring and summer, and the lingering La Nia-like tropical convection patterns, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during the spring with a ~60% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Nio toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance in September-November). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

CPC March Update

I think I may have to give up following this site due to ongoing alerts from my AV product, Kaspersky. Everytime I come here I get a pop-up saying, "This site can not be trusted". I have to click 'continue', then another screen asks me to confirm again. I wonder what has changed?

Update on National Hurricane Center Products and Services for 2017

1) Storm Surge Watch/Warning becomes operational

2) Issuance of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclones

3) Experimental Time of Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Graphic

4) Update to tropical cyclone advisory graphical products

5) Annual update to the track forecast error cone

5)(6) Changes to the National TCV

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
When I logged on here yesterday morning, I suddenly got what sounded like some Russian Cossak music playing through the speakers until I logged out and then re-opened the site.............................................. .. 

Northern California: Before and after 2017 storms January 18, 2014: January 2014

Quoting 171. Skyepony:

The breadbasket of the west, right after the bison were killed off it..the soil contained ~20% carbon. After a few generations of chemical farming the carbon content has been reduced to 5%(much of the difference went to the atmosphere). Waste grassland environments take up and sequester much more carbon when they have animals grazing on them then when they do not. Rotational grazing and good pasture practices increase your greenhouse gas sequestering. Cloven hoofs trod manure into the earth as well as aerates soil and the act of grazing tears roots below the surface trapping carbon underground. Each acre of well maintained, pasture fed animals takes the equivalent of ~5.5 tons of CO2 from the air and puts it underground each year. Proper kept pastured animals improve the soil, reduce greenhouse gases and are much healthier for humans to eat than feedlot animals. They are more expensive since feedlot takes all the short cuts by feeding antibiotics, hormones and grain, while releasing much of it's waste to the atmosphere, gassy septic systems and waterways. The newer studies that take into account that grassfed digestion don't produce as much greenhouse gases to begin with and how much grazing animals are actually sequestering greenhouse gases show that eating the right kinds of local meat can actually reduce greenhouse gases.


The problem with properly kept pasture grass-fed cattle is not only that it uses up much more space than concealed grain-fed factory farmed livestock, but it also takes about 8 months longer for a grass-fed cow to grow to the size where it is taken to the beef industry and slaughtered for meat than that same cow on a grain-fed factory farm, so that means 8 months of more water and food to sustain it. While it would be much healthier for the world to eat meat from naturally raised grass-fed cattle and not cattle that are raised on genetically modified corn and soybeans from factory farms, it's even less sustainable to raise cows naturally on pastures than it is to raise them on factory farms, we just don't have the space nor the resources to sustain naturally raised grass-fed cattle, given America's and the world's high demand for meat and dairy products, and ever growing population. If we tried to raise cattle now the way we used to by raising them on open grass-fed fields, the cost of meat and dairy products would be much higher than they are now, and the number one focus of sustainability for the meat industry is profitability.