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Season's first tropical depression forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2009

Nature is jumping the gun a bit this year, with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season. The area of disturbed weather (91L) that we've been watching, about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity and spin to be classified as a tropical depression. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph. Satellite estimates (using a cloud pattern recognition method called the "Dvorak" technique) were saying this was a tropical depression this morning, though, so the NHC elected to upgrade the system.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 5 - 10 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Friday, when the system will likely move over waters too cold to support intensification. TD One is not a threat to any land areas. I give the storm a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ana.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD One.

Is the formation of TD One a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably not. Early season storms occurring near the U.S. coast have not been shown to be correlated with an active main portion of hurricane season during August - October. However, the situation is different if we start getting June and July storms in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This was the case last year, when the formation of Hurricane Bertha in the deep tropics in July presaged an active 2008 hurricane season. According to the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during June and July have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a June/July storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Images credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
My hottest forecast day is Sunday....inland Florida panhandle...

Sunday
Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Highs 91 to 94.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


TD 1

AOI #2
Good Morning.
Post 494, its good to see that this is making "front page" news again. What will the reactions be ???
At 11n 61w, we have had a few gentle showers this morning. Temps yesterday 34c. This is very hot, for an island that is supposed to have its temp. regulated by the balmy sea breezes. Oh well.....
Quoting potteryX:
Good Morning.
Post 494, its good to see that this is making "front page" news again. What will the reactions be ???
At 11n 61w, we have had a few gentle showers this morning. Temps yesterday 34c. This is very hot, for an island that is supposed to have its temp. regulated by the balmy sea breezes. Oh well.....


We have been hitting 30 pretty consistently up here also... its nice :)
Quoting CaneWarning:
This is interesting, there is a new report out that says climate change is killing 300,000 a year.

Link


What a bunch of HogWash.....Look who printed it.....LOL....and they exist as long a they make something out of nothing....WOW!
For him who has no concentration, there is no tranquility.
- Bhagaved Gita
Good morning and have a great day everyone.
Quoting TampaSpin:


What a bunch of HogWash.....Look who printed it.....LOL....and they exist as long a they make something out of nothing....WOW!


This is a big issue that the world has to deal with sooner or later.
For him who has no concentration, there is no tranquility.
- Bhagaved Gita
Good morning and have a great day everyone.




Wow!
I haven't heard that mentioned in ages!
Have you ever read that?


The BHAGAVAD-GITA in English

The Bhagavad Gita (Sanskrit भगवद् गीता, Bhagavad Gītā, "Song of God") is an important Sanskrit Hindu scripture. It is revered as a sacred scripture of Hinduism,[1][2] and considered as one of the most important religious classics of the world.


Quoting CaneWarning:


This is a big issue that the world has to deal with sooner or later.


(Removed, not relevant to the blog)
510. IKE
"""Did someone say Global Warming?"""

Go get em Orca!
Quoting leftovers:
hey there armchair weather pros? if you say no development and there is development dont be surprised a small electric shock comes from your keyboard. punishment for your failure.


???
Quoting vortfix:
Go get em Orca!


I am reformed :)
Not playing that game anymore.. like talking to a brick wall.
514. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


???


2nd ???
Brick wall is right.

ARGH....



Photobucket

516. IKE
Well....X-rated TD1. Looks like it got hot and stripped....

Hi Vortfix,
Concentration is the best way to accomplish anything. Now that we're in a slow storm period, we can take advantage of the peace and THINK. Even if it's only about what you have to do today. If you concentrate on the tasks before you, then chances are, you'll have a better day. See ya!

Quoting Orcasystems:


I am reformed :)
Not playing that game anymore.. like talking to a brick wall.


Information is like a chisel on brick. As an example, the earlier article makes no reference to the impact on the starving population of the world by the recent focus on turning grain into gas instead of food for the hungry. They used to eat what now takes more energy, in total, to produce than it provides.
519. IKE
RIP TD1.....

We are gathered here today to pay our final respects to TD1...aka Ha-Anna. She blossomed while grazing the outer banks of NC and points beyond. Only to be stripped of her title and reduced to a North Atlantic swirl.

May you rest in peace as you eventually get sucked into a North Atlantic non-tropical low.
I was really pulling for Ana. My wife and I place a bet every year on which month will see the first named storm. She has June. May would have been a no decision. Come on July!
Hmmmmmmm

Quoting Ossqss:


Information is like a chisel on brick. As an example, the earlier article makes no reference to the impact on the starving population of the world by the recent focus on turning grain into gas instead of food for the hungry. They used to eat what now takes more energy, in total, to produce than it provides.


Ethanol should be done away with in my opinion. We should focus of more fuel efficient cars like the Prius or other hybrids. Taking food and turning it into fuel makes no sense to me when so many are starving.
Quoting IKE:
RIP TD1.....

We are gathered here today to pay our final respects to TD1...aka Ha-Anna. She blossomed while grazing the outer banks of NC and points beyond. Only to be stripped of her title and reduced to a North Atlantic swirl.

May you rest in peace as you eventually get sucked into a North Atlantic non-tropical low.


Thanks goodness, I didn't pick any dates in May for the first storm to form.
Quoting Nolehead:
morning everyone, i'm suprised that the NHC didn't upgrade her to TS...but if i heard right...last night TWC said that if it did get named that it would have been the 1st north storm to ever develope this soon...now of course it's TWC saying this but if it did get named talk about everyone freakin over GW..but hey, who knows maybe this is something we really need to pay attention too for the next few years...since the last 3 have already started earlier each year...something to ponder...


I believe that either way,this was the furthest north a TC has formed in the atlantic,I think,I saw the same thing last night on TWC..
Quoting CaneWarning:


Thanks goodness, I didn't pick any dates in May for the first storm to form.


I had the 21st..and it looked pretty good for awhile
ORCA SYSTEMS-Do you think we might have something brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in the future?It does look interesting.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I had the 21st..and it looked pretty got for awhile


I picked 6/6/09. I guess there is still time.
If Glenn beck doesn't believe in GW,Then it can't be true,lol.....somepeople can get slapped in the face and still say "I didn't get slapped"..amazing,ignorance is bliss,so they say!!!,IMO
The area ENE of the bahamas might be our next invest,IMO..it should move NW than WNW.....
Quoting hydrus:
ORCA SYSTEMS-Do you think we might have something brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in the near future?It does look interesting.


I don't see anything brewing... the models show something small starting and stopping over and over again in the BOC... but nothing close to firm.

I think we may have one brewing in the pacific to watch :)

That being said... I don't even pretend to know what I am talking about...I can understand models and graphics.. but thats about it. I leave the heavy predictions up to people like StormW and Weather 456, who actually appear to now what they are talking about (unlike a few others on here).
Local MET in WPB Steve Weagle seems to think the front/surface trough in the GOMEX is going to be a Saturday spoiler for us.
Let's see how this compares to the up and coming run.

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Local MET in WPB Steve Weagle seems to think the front/surface trough in the GOMEX is going to be a Saturday spoiler for us.


Tampa only has a 20% chance of rain on Saturday. Way below normal. It looks like WPB shows a 70% chance of rain though.
Oss, that run shows something in the gulf for sure going in around New Orleans of course.
Looks like the 2nd gulf blog got sucked into the wave that just entered the EPAC. May see an invest there soon.
ORCA SYSTEMS-For now the wind shear out there should put any tropical development on hold.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Oss, that run shows something in the gulf for sure going in around New Orleans of course.


Also shows the Sat/Sun spoiler
Quoting theFatherofNature:
Thank you all for the lists of colleges. I'm trying to go somewhere in south florida


Should that not work out I have to interject here.

U South Alabama - Mobile has a nice program and a couple of really good tropical researchers on staff.

Cannot forget U Alabama - Huntsville, Texas A&M (how did you other guys forget this one? Really.), U Washington, UCLA, Texas Tech, Illinois, SUNY - sometown, Valpo, Missouri - Springfield, Mississippi State, U Maryland, more-i-am-forgetiing.
20% chance for Tpa at the end of may,is about normal..usually our rainy season starts in ernest about mid-late june....
Quoting Ossqss:
Let's see how this compares to the up and coming run.



Hmm why doesn't yours match this one?
gfs 2009052906 Forecast slp Java Animation
542. JRRP
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like the 2nd gulf blog got sucked into the wave that just entered the EPAC. May see an invest there soon.

CMC develops that area.... i think
Quoting StormW:


I get good mileage!


What do you drive?
Quoting JRRP:

CMC develops that area.... i think


cmc 2009052900 Forecast slp Java Animation
Develops the one in the pacific.. but not the GOM
wow that sad.. up to 275 deaths from Cyclonic Storm Aila. =(
548. JRRP
Quoting Orcasystems:


cmc 2009052900 Forecast slp Java Animation
Develops the one in the pacific.. but not the GOM

yh
Quoting StormW:


2008 Mustang V6 Coupe. Even with the performance stuff I've put on it, I'm gettin' 21-22mpg City, and 30+ on the highway.


That isn't bad. Not too much different than my car. One day, I may even buy a hybrid.
550. IKE
TD1......

Quoting StormW:


I get good mileage!


(unfair comment, not sure if StormW knew we were talking about ethanol fuel, and changing food into fuel)
Quoting CaneWarning:


This is a big issue that the world has to deal with sooner or later.


That's right, "deal with it" is a great way to cover it, but auto accidents and malnutrition are killing more. Problems we can actually do something about. We cannot undo the most recent glacial period.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Good mileage always trumps people eating and the price of food :(


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.
Quoting atmoaggie:


That's right, "deal with it" is a great way to cover it, but auto accidents and malnutrition are killing more. Problems we can actually do something about. We cannot undo the most recent glacial period.


The article does mention malnutrition. I think we can all do little things that are better for the environment whether we believe in global warming or not. For example, I recycle and now only use canvass bags at Publix. I want to use less natural resources. I don't see anything wrong with that. I encourage others to do the same.
Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.


Thats about the only thing saving me.. is the OD settings.. I drive a Magnum.. and I don't think it even knows how to drive past a gas station.

Going to buy a Volt, in the second year of production when they have the new Batteries. They have the new technology lithiums that can be fully charged in about 5 minutes (another Canadian invention)
Quoting StormW:


No...I didn't...it was a basic response to the statement...We should focus of more fuel efficient cars


Thats why I removed it :)
Mind you, as per normal.. Ossgss is quicker then I am and quoted me. He sure has gotten a lot quicker on here since his team took up Golfing.
Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.


They don't really care about us,its all about the oil companies and profit,Gas prices have been going up because 2 months ago opec cut the amount there refinery's would produce,that and the speculation that the worst of the global reccession maybe over w/push gas above the $3 mark before the end of summer...and until we the consumer "push back"..It'll stay all about the oil execs and there profit,ie:$$$$$$$$$$

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 8.3N 100.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.05.2009 8.3N 100.4W WEAK
12UTC 30.05.2009 7.9N 99.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.05.2009 9.0N 99.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2009 10.9N 99.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2009 11.6N 100.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2009 12.0N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2009 12.9N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2009 12.1N 105.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.06.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


---
Reply to Skye on E. Pacific invest.
Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.
Quoting Ossqss:


That is exactly how my 4-cyl Mazda 6 effectively goes in the low gears and gets good mileage at highways speeds.
Quoting StormW:


How have you been BTW?


Alive and kicking... and way to darn busy :(
Good to see you back by the way... it means the season is starting, and Hockey is almost over.
Quoting CaneWarning:


The article does mention malnutrition. I think we can all do little things that are better for the environment whether we believe in global warming or not. For example, I recycle and now only use canvass bags at Publix. I want to use less natural resources. I don't see anything wrong with that. I encourage others to do the same.


Certainly use as little as possible in resources. Not a thing wrong with that. There are very few instances where an Excursion or Suburban is warranted. Absurd. Currently, though, the posed 'solutions' to AGW are not about using less resources.
Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.


Hmm flat terrain.. I wish.
I walked to work two days ago.. it took me 47 minutes at a pretty good clip... and it was ALL basically down hill.

Barbi picked me up for the ride home... 47 minutes of basically uphill would have killed me.
The problem with corn-based ethanol is that it does not produce as much energy as an equivalent amount of gasoline. Switchgrass-based ethanol (aka. cellulosic ethanol) is closer to gasoline in energy potential. While ethanol overall *is* renewable, there is still the issue of pollution and the automotive culture to be addressed. Its a good temporary fix, but it is not the end-all fix. Something sustainable needs to be developed that does not add as much CO2. One other issue is the fact that the internal combustion engine is not very efficient. It wastes something like 70% of the energy generated in the form of heat. Something to capture that heat is needed.

On a tropical note... TD1 was hardly a TS. It never looked impressive, or even like a TS, and the NHC made the right decision not naming it. It didn't have the winds for a TS when it also had the structure of an almost-TS.
Quoting jeffs713:


On a tropical note... TD1 was hardly a TS. It never looked impressive, or even like a TS, and the NHC made the right decision not naming it. It didn't have the winds for a TS when it also had the structure of an almost-TS.


Man.. I obviously need more coffee.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats why I removed it :)
Mind you, as per normal.. Ossgss is quicker then I am and quoted me. He sure has gotten a lot quicker on here since his team took up Golfing.


You must be confusing the Pen's with the Canucks :)

Golf is big with all the Canadian hockey teams this time of year -- LOL J/K -- well, this year anyhow.
A coupla questions

1)How do diesel engines compare with gasoline engines?

2)What map graphic is best for seeing fronts in the Caribbean and West Atlantic. (Wiht forecast front changes)

Thanking you in advance
Quoting atmoaggie:


Certainly use as little as possible in resources. Not a thing wrong with that. There are very few instances where an Excursion or Suburban is warranted. Absurd. Currently, though, the posed 'solutions' to AGW are not about using less resources.


I guess I should state that my reaction to possible global warming is to use less resources and avoid doing things that you know are harmful to the environment. I do those things daily and expect others to do the same.
Quoting StormW:


Yeah, and it's funny, how when prices on oil rise, the powers that be come up with every excuse in the book...supply and demand...Oh, this country is unstable, or...we're afraid of tensions in such and such a country...anything but the real issue...GREED!


They haven't made any money lately. And most of that, above, is about speculative investors. The oil companies buy the oil at those prices and have a % profit goal after refining/distribution. For us to get less dependent on foreign sources, our domestic companies would have to make more than they are right now, and for the foreseeable future, to take the risks involved in exploration. If you want all energy to cost more, and everything that depends on it, be happy with our current political leanings.

If nothing else, we might also wonder when there have been enough mergers and there are too few competitors.
you said that right storm!!!GREED,we need to step up and change our ways,IMO.....example:if you can walk or bike somewhere instead of driving why don't we???Because as a society aswell as being greedy, there is a equal amount of lazy people,if not more.....Ride a bike,take a walk america!!!!collectively we can put some of these companies in there places,but it'll take a movment,until then expect gas to hit $3 a gallon by mid-late august...
I think we need to try to avoid using oil at all possible. Why not create another type of engine that runs on something else?
Quoting jeffs713:
The problem with corn-based ethanol is that it does not produce as much energy as an equivalent amount of gasoline. Switchgrass-based ethanol (aka. cellulosic ethanol) is closer to gasoline in energy potential. While ethanol overall *is* renewable, there is still the issue of pollution and the automotive culture to be addressed. Its a good temporary fix, but it is not the end-all fix. Something sustainable needs to be developed that does not add as much CO2. One other issue is the fact that the internal combustion engine is not very efficient. It wastes something like 70% of the energy generated in the form of heat. Something to capture that heat is needed.

On a tropical note... TD1 was hardly a TS. It never looked impressive, or even like a TS, and the NHC made the right decision not naming it. It didn't have the winds for a TS when it also had the structure of an almost-TS.


it was a TS at one point,the winds in this depression were 35mph,39 is a TS,it had the stucture, a warm core and at one point I'll bet had 39mph sustained winds,IMO...its all but gone now(naked swirl),lol..
I am off to the Tropical Rainforest... then out the door to work :)


TD 1

AOI #2
Quoting stillwaiting:


it was a TS at one point,the winds in this depression were 35mph,39 is a TS,it had the stucture, a warm core and at one point I'll bet had 39mph sustained winds,IMO...its all but gone now(naked swirl),lol..


I don't think this ever deserved to be called a TS.
hi all


today i was Featur on Erik Klemetti blog on back on eruption.com



Eruptions reader David pointed out that Anak Krakatau is experiencing heightened activity to the point that officials have closed off a 3-km area around the volcano to fishermen and tourists. The volcano has had increased seismic activity along with a number of vulcanian explosions over the last few weeks.


Link


my name is David
who cares if gas hits $3? I have the choice to either pay for it and drive or not and run out of gas and find other means of transportation.

No one is forcing you to buy $3 gas, $2 gas, or $10 gas.
Charlston:Tropical wx maps from the NHC:Link
Quoting atmoaggie:


Certainly use as little as possible in resources. Not a thing wrong with that. There are very few instances where an Excursion or Suburban is warranted. Absurd. Currently, though, the posed 'solutions' to AGW are not about using less resources.

Interesting topic of discussion this morning. I would be all for a more energy efficient vehicle. Unfortunately I am one of those who drive a suburban as it is one of the few vehicles that can fit my family and give me a little room left over to haul all their crap too. I cringe everytime I have to pay $75+ to fill up my tank.
Quoting StormW:


Shell reports decline in profits...Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Profit fell to $3.3 billion

Gee...wish I could make a quarterly profit like that. My heart bleeds for 'em


And 3 bad wells erase half of that. Not enough to explore at home with any earnest.

How many jobs have we created in the Middle East, I wonder. Spent hundreds of billions of future taxpayer money there, too. Killed a bunch of people, locals and Americans. For what? To pay $0.5 less at the pump?
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Interesting topic of discussion this morning. I would be all for a more energy efficient vehicle. Unfortunately I am one of those who drive a suburban as it is one of the few vehicles that can fit my family and give me a little room left over to haul all their crap too. I cringe everytime I have to pay $75+ to fill up my tank.


Maybe one day there will be hybrid Suburbans!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmm why doesn't yours match this one?
gfs 2009052906 Forecast slp Java Animation


It does, the mslp version you linked does not show the moisture. That tells you it's a mid/upper level feature unsuccessfully trying to establish a surface reflection.
As long as they don't drill off the Florida coast I am fine. If they decide to drill then I'm going to move.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Interesting topic of discussion this morning. I would be all for a more energy efficient vehicle. Unfortunately I am one of those who drive a suburban as it is one of the few vehicles that can fit my family and give me a little room left over to haul all their crap too. I cringe everytime I have to pay $75+ to fill up my tank.


A Mazda 5, and many others, seat 7 (or maybe 8?) and get almost 30 mph. Some storage room, but not as much as a Suburban.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
A coupla questions

1)How do diesel engines compare with gasoline engines?

2)What map graphic is best for seeing fronts in the Caribbean and West Atlantic. (Wiht forecast front changes)

Thanking you in advance



The diesel and gasoline engines are very similar. The main difference is the diesel engine doesn't use a spark plug to make the combustion it uses the heat from the compression chamber.

Also you can get excellent gas mileage in BIG diesel trucks for instance 26-29 mpg if you have it chipped.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It does, the mslp version you linked does not show the moisture. That tells you it's a mid/upper level feature unsuccessfully trying to establish a surface reflection.



Easier to see on the 850vort.
I wonder when Dr. Master's will give us another update...
maggie:exxon/mobile recorded record profits last yr!!!Link
Morning All, I see the comments about oil. I read this morning that the oil producing companys are putting the oil in tankers and storing it till needed. They were saying that back in 1998 they did this and it failed and oil went down to 10 or 15 a barrel. Looks like they are trying this again and hoping the economy will bounce back this year in this country since we use 40% of the worlds oil.
Quoting CaneWarning:
As long as they don't drill off the Florida coast I am fine. If they decide to drill then I'm going to move.


Why? Would be a lot better to have a rig 30 miles out than your landscape covered in turbines.

Did you know that oil naturally seeps out of the ocean floor in some places?
KEH, I don't know how diesel engines in small cars do, but our Ford F350 gets the crappiest gas mileage of any vehicle I've ever owned. On highway I'm lucky to get about 16 mpg and here in Utah it is more expensive for diesel than it is for unleaded. If a manufacturer could make a hybrid or more fuel efficient truck without the loss of towing capacity (for work not toys) then I'd be all over that.

CaneW, kudos to you for using canvas bags while shopping. I have so many to buy for, I'd have to push a cart around just to hold my empty canvas bags! :o) How are ya this morning?
Quoting MarcoIsland:
who cares if gas hits $3? I have the choice to either pay for it and drive or not and run out of gas and find other means of transportation.

No one is forcing you to buy $3 gas, $2 gas, or $10 gas.
LOL-This is true Marco,but I beleive that the price of gas when it was over 4 bucks a gallon ,took its toll on small and large businesses and contributed to the down turn of the economic situation.Do you agree?
Quoting atmoaggie:


Why? Would be a lot better to have a rig 30 miles out than your landscape covered in turbines.

Did you know that oil naturally seeps out of the ocean floor in some places?


I would rather not have anything off the coast of Florida. Sure, oil may seep out in some places, but does it seep out off the coast of Florida? I don't know. I don't like any drilling in the gulf to be honest.
Oh by the way this story was on yahoo this morning Hey StormW long time, How ya doing?
Quoting atmoaggie:


A Mazda 5, and many others, seat 7 (or maybe 8?) and get almost 30 mph. Some storage room, but not as much as a Suburban.

Atmo, there are 9 of us :o). I have to get the base model suburban with the fold up front seat to fit us all.

CaneW, Any hybrid they make had better come with some dang good 4WD. I use 4WD more than half the year!
Oil demand is down and supply is way up, so why the high prices? A few puzzel pieces for you.

Link


Link
If we could come up w/a proccess that produces energy from salt water,thats an idea...now solar/battery cell cars seems like the way to go...
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
KEH, I don't know how diesel engines in small cars do, but our Ford F350 gets the crappiest gas mileage of any vehicle I've ever owned. On highway I'm lucky to get about 16 mpg and here in Utah it is more expensive for diesel than it is for unleaded. If a manufacturer could make a hybrid or more fuel efficient truck without the loss of towing capacity (for work not toys) then I'd be all over that.

CaneW, kudos to you for using canvas bags while shopping. I have so many to buy for, I'd have to push a cart around just to hold my empty canvas bags! :o) How are ya this morning?


I'm excellent. We got rain again this morning!
586. atmoaggie

Not trying to poke the hornet's nest here but if we're talking about needing Suburbans to haul all of our kids maybe we need to start thinking about not having as many kids. World population stabilization would go a long way to fixing a lot of our problems both energy-wise and food-wise. While other industrialized countries have seen declines in birth rates the US birth rate is climbing and was at a 45 year high in 2008.
They are stockpiling it and then they will sell it at current prices. Just to rip people off.
National Hurricane Preparedness Week

History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2009 will be held May 24th through May 30th.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.

Friday May 29th "Be Prepared"

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all."

Disaster Prevention should include:

* Developing a Family Plan
* Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
* Having a Place to Go
* Securing your Home
* Having a Pet Plan

One of the most important decisions you will have to make is "Should I Evacuate?"

If you are asked to evacuate, you should do so without delay. But unless you live in a coastal or low-lying area, an area that floods frequently, or in manufactured housing, it is unlikely that emergency managers will ask you to evacuate. That means that it is important for you and your family to HAVE A PLAN that makes you as safe as possible in your home.

The best energy if we could tap it, would be LIGHTNING.

IF we could build some kind of contraption in an area that gets frequent strong lightning storms we could run entire cities. The average lightning volt runs between 10 million and 120 million volts!
Quoting MarcoIsland:
who cares if gas hits $3? I have the choice to either pay for it and drive or not and run out of gas and find other means of transportation.

No one is forcing you to buy $3 gas, $2 gas, or $10 gas.

Of course nobody is forcing me to buy that gas. The fact that I need to get to work every day is forcing me. I moved close to my office so I can pay less for gas (I moved when gas was under $2/gal, 3 years ago. It REALLY paid off this last summer). Not everyone has that option, especially in larger cities. I could realistically bike to work when its not raining or a bajillion degrees outside (figure 40% of all work days). But there is no public transportation that goes between my house and my office. Also, keep in mind that for most urbanized areas, there is nowhere near enough mass transportation for the number of people who would use it. Simply not buying gas is not an option.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Why? Would be a lot better to have a rig 30 miles out than your landscape covered in turbines.

Did you know that oil naturally seeps out of the ocean floor in some places?


hows about neither????,we live in Fl,flat fields of solar panels would produce copius amounts of energy w/all the sunshine and the sun angle down here,they block minimal view because they stand less than 10 ft...if we all put them on our roofs,imagine collectively how much less oil we'd be using..heck most of the time our powerbills would be non-existant...so basically we should use oil for infastructure and watch this country really start to grow again,when we become dependent on ourselves!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
maggie:exxon/mobile recorded record profits last yr!!!Link


And they started getting into more exploration and then saw the price fall. Too volatile to make the investments needed on domestic sources. They have had many bad years, too. Exxon/Mobil is, essentially, a new company. Records are not special when you only have ~15 years of history. Try to remember how big that one is. Maybe too big.

Right now the refiners are making very little money, if any, but looks a little better on the horizon. Some, like Sinclair, are not in the crude business, just the refining business (like the refinery here, ...visiting in Tulsa). Their profit is entirely dictated by the cost of crude and market price of gas. They have been cutting everything extra. No company picnics this summer.

I do not work for any oil companies. I just hear enough about what it takes for them to explore domestic sources, meet environmental laws, appease the locals with any project, etc. I also see how much we "care" about the Middle East and the costs, monetary, political, and human, incurred there. The solution is a less volatile oil price and a stable and substantial profit.

What if we paid $1 more at the pump, had fewer dead soldiers, had thousands more high-paying domestic jobs, and stability in our personal energy costs? Regardless of whom is profiting, that sounds fine to me.
Tax break on hurricane supplies this weekend
Jay Vise Reporting

For the second year in a row, Louisiana is participating in a "hurricane preparedness sales tax holiday."

On Saturday and Sunday, all state sales taxes will be suspended for many items deemed vital to preparation for the hurricane season.

Byron Henderson with the Louisiana Department of Revenue tells WWL First News that the tax exemption requires no paperwork, and is applied immediately at the point of purchase.

"The sales tax exemption applies to the first $1,500 dollars of the sales price of each item," Henderson said.

Henderson said that the tax exemption applies to items such as batteries, flashlights, generators, tarps, and portable radios.

However, he says the legislature did not authorize the exemption to apply to gasoline or diesel.

Henderson notes that the tax exemption is not intended to apply to $1,500 total in purchases, but the first $1,500 of each purchase.

"If you purchased a $1,500 portable generator, and $1,500 worth of tarps, and $1,500 worth of storm shutter devices, your entire $4,500 transaction would be eligible for the sales tax exemption," Henderson said.

For more information on the sales tax holiday, and for a complete list of items exempt from tax this weekend, please click the following link:
http://revenue.louisiana.gov/forms/publications/STHPushCard(4.25x11).pdf
Quoting StormW:


Shell reports decline in profits...Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Profit fell to $3.3 billion

Gee...wish I could make a quarterly profit like that. My heart bleeds for 'em


Bleeds for the 70% of regular Americans that own the company? Shareholders are the owners.

Full 50% of oil companies are owned by pensions and IRAs.

Just info as it seems many folks don't realize who really owns the company. Regular folks own most of them.

Not to mention all those employed in the industry.

And, finally, not to mention that, compared to other industries, their margins are actually pretty low. It's not about whole numbers it's about %. When you have a lot of volume, the number gets higher, but the company that makes $1mil with a 50% margin is "greedier" than the company that makes $1bil with a 15% margin.

anyone notice when we started getting our stimulus checks last year how much more oil was vs. the yr previous&this yrs prices=all that stimulus money went to the oil companies,IMO
I wonder when Dr. Master's will give us another update...

I predict Dr. M's update:

TD 1 almost became a storm last night but since has lost most of its convection. TD1 is now feeling the effects of wind shear, the influence of the cold waters of the North Atlantic and has been reduced to a naked swirl. One interesting note, TD1 was the furthest north that a storm has formed so early in the season.

Currently no models are predicting storm formation over the next week. I'll have a June 1-15 forecast on Sunday.
Its not capturing it that is the problem. Its storing and distributing it.

Batteries take time to charge, and work best with a slow discharge. A lightning strike is a very quick, intense burst of energy. Trying to store a lightning strike would be like dumping a 5-gallon bucket of water into a garden hose. Yes, some will go through the hose, but most will be wasted.

A possible solution if we can sort out the mechanics of it would be to harness some of the energy in a tropical system. We know tidal motion generates energy, as does normal wave action. Why not harness some of that?
Quoting captainhunter:
586. atmoaggie

Not trying to poke the hornet's nest here but if we're talking about needing Suburbans to haul all of our kids maybe we need to start thinking about not having as many kids.

There's many different ways population could be controlled so perhaps you could be more specific with your blanket statement. If someone is able and can afford to properly care for and adequately raise several children then I don't see a problem with that. My children are well behaved, intelligent and talented - certainly not a detriment to society. If you'd like to discuss this topic more then shoot me an email.
When did this become the Oil and Energy Entry?

Platts on Oil has a good website.
seastep:why have so many people's 401K's been tanking then???
Social Networking Sites Provide MEMA's Hurricane Prep Info

YouTube, Twitter, Facebook In MEMA’s Tool Chest

PEARL, Miss. -- This year the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency is using social networking and micro-blogging tools to reach people with important hurricane preparedness information as part of Hurricane Preparedness Week.

The agency first launched a YouTube page, a Twitter account and Facebook pages several months ago to better serve a growing generation of people who may not get information and news through traditional means.

MEMA Director Mike Womack said it is important for his agency to communicate through a variety of media to encourage people to take precautions before the start of hurricane season.
Quoting Patrap:
When did this become the Oil and Energy Entry?

Platts on Oil has a good website.


I'm trying to talk both about energy conservation AND the tropics here. hehe. (nobody is listening, though)

Also... how long has Louisiana had the hurricane preparedness sales tax holiday? It would be an excellent thing here in TX. (but horribly unlikely to happen, since the Leg. only meets every other year)
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone notice when we started getting our stimulus checks last year how much more oil was vs. the yr previous&this yrs prices=all that stimulus money went to the oil companies,IMO


What stimulus check?
back to Wx...anything in the GOM yet???,lol...
Quoting jeffs713:
Its not capturing it that is the problem. Its storing and distributing it.

Batteries take time to charge, and work best with a slow discharge. A lightning strike is a very quick, intense burst of energy. Trying to store a lightning strike would be like dumping a 5-gallon bucket of water into a garden hose. Yes, some will go through the hose, but most will be wasted.

A possible solution if we can sort out the mechanics of it would be to harness some of the energy in a tropical system. We know tidal motion generates energy, as does normal wave action. Why not harness some of that?


That is very true Jeff, hence I said "If we could build some kind of contraption" meaning the technology isn't there yet but def something they should look into.

I also agree with use of tidal flows to produce energy. I live near a nearly cutoff Saltwater lake. when the tides change everything has to come through a pass that is no more than 100 yards wide. This produces STRONG currents which would be ideal for tidal energy.
stillwaiting - as StormW showed, profits are down. Exxon stock, for example, is down 30% from a year ago.


Quoting Ossqss:
Oil demand is down and supply is way up, so why the high prices? A few puzzel pieces for you.

Link


Link


Gas prices are one of the topics on the table of this new fuel efficiency goals set fourth by President Obama. Saying that gas prices may be leveraged to urge consumers to come off the super sized suv's and trucks. Of course that drew criticism, what do big families do that have no choice but to have these vehicles? What did big families do before the SUV boom is the question I would ask them. All you have to do is make the more fuel efficient mini-vans a COOL, TRENDY thing to drive and your problem is solved.
I'm doing great. Getting ready to leave for the outer banks today. Should be great. And thanks for all the info you gave me last year on thunderstorms i understand much better now.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Gas prices are one of the topics on the table of this new fuel efficiency goals set fourth by President Obama. Saying that gas prices may be leveraged to urge consumers to come off the super sized suv's and trucks. Of course that drew criticism, what do big families do that have no choice but to have these vehicles? What did big families do before the SUV boom is the question I would ask them. All you have to do is make the more fuel efficient mini-vans a COOL, TRENDY thing to drive and your problem is solved.


Cool and trendy mini vans? LOL I can imagine it now, going by a high school with tons of mini vans in the parking lot all pimped out. LOL
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Gas prices are one of the topics on the table of this new fuel efficiency goals set fourth by President Obama. Saying that gas prices may be leveraged to urge consumers to come off the super sized suv's and trucks. Of course that drew criticism, what do big families do that have no choice but to have these vehicles? What did big families do before the SUV boom is the question I would ask them. All you have to do is make the more fuel efficient mini-vans a COOL, TRENDY thing to drive and your problem is solved.


Ford is doing that with the FLEX...

I don't think it is a Presidents job to try to control or manipulate getting Trucks and SUVs off of the market.

Poking hornets nest here... nor is it the job of government to buyout and run an automobile company..hehehehe!
TCW, before the SUV boom, seatbelts weren't a law so big families just crammed them into whatever car they had. ;)
Oops, I think I accidentally stumbled in to the OPEC blog. Let me get out of here and try to find the WU blog.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

There's many different ways population could be controlled so perhaps you could be more specific with your blanket statement. If someone is able and can afford to properly care for and adequately raise several children then I don't see a problem with that. My children are well behaved, intelligent and talented - certainly not a detriment to society. If you'd like to discuss this topic more then shoot me an email.


Agreed. People like octomom may be another matter though!
Just thought I'd stop in and deliver some great news in weather for once. The drought that had been plaguing Florida for nearly 8 months seems to be coming to an end. Been amazing to see Mother Nature turn the page so quickly on what had been a historic drought. By this time next week, with the active pattern still over Southern Florida, I expect the drought to be gone completely.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/pics/fl_dm.png
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Ford is doing that with the FLEX...

I don't think it is a Presidents job to try to control or manipulate getting Trucks and SUVs off of the market.

Poking hornets nest here... nor is it the job of government to buyout and run an automobile company..hehehehe!


Or banks.
LOL 629
Quoting CaneWarning:


Or banks.


right on!
Quoting jeffs713:


I'm trying to talk both about energy conservation AND the tropics here. hehe. (nobody is listening, though)

Also... how long has Louisiana had the hurricane preparedness sales tax holiday? It would be an excellent thing here in TX. (but horribly unlikely to happen, since the Leg. only meets every other year)


Florida got rid of the holiday,now is when people need something like that most,IMO...w/the recession people just don't have the extra money for TC supplies...


also a very interesting read:Link
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just thought I'd stop in and deliver some great news in weather for once. The drought that had been plaguing Florida for nearly 8 months seems to be coming to an end. Been amazing to see Mother Nature turn the page so quickly on what had been a historic drought. By this time next week, with the active pattern still over Southern Florida, I expect the drought to be gone completely.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/pics/fl_dm.png


Yep. Loving the green lawns. Didn't take long for them to spring back around here.
Families of the future

1. Electric Mini-van
2. 1 or 2 Smart Cars for the short trips around town.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


right on!


And I say that as someone who voted for him.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just thought I'd stop in and deliver some great news in weather for once. The drought that had been plaguing Florida for nearly 8 months seems to be coming to an end. Been amazing to see Mother Nature turn the page so quickly on what had been a historic drought. By this time next week, with the active pattern still over Southern Florida, I expect the drought to be gone completely.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/pics/fl_dm.png


Now we just have to hope we don't have another Fay this year. If we do, the flooding will be even worse.
Sooo.... Can anyone speculate or venture a guess as to when the GFS will forecast something developing? Most of us participated in Ossqss contest. Anyone want to wager on when the next potential development will be?
594. hydrus 11:03 AM EDT on May 29, 2009


Yes, I agree it took a toll but adjusted for inflation our gas costs should actually be higher per gallon than they are now.

You can't blame the oil companies because you live too far from where you work.
Media flock to island as hurricane season starts

By Leigh Jones
The Daily News

Published May 29, 2009


GALVESTON — National news crews are headed back to the island this week to mark the beginning of hurricane season on Monday.

“Good Morning America’s” Robin Roberts will do live reports from Galveston during the show’s Monday broadcast.

Jim Cantore,
from the Weather Channel, also will be in town on Monday, broadcasting live in front of Murdoch’s Pier on the seawall.



City officials, including Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas, have given interviews to CNN and Fox News Channel.

The national attention is good for the island, city spokeswoman Alicia Cahill said.

“So many of us feel as though our story got lost in the shuffle of the story of the banks and the presidential election,” she said. “Unlike New Orleans, we don’t see the outpouring of news media wanting to keep up with our progress and telling the story of the island. Having those folks check in with us now reminds people in the rest of the country that Galveston was the last place to have a major storm.”
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Sooo.... Can anyone speculate or venture a guess as to when the GFS will forecast something developing? Most of us participated in Ossqss contest. Anyone want to wager on when the next potential development will be?


Pretty safe bet it will forecast something in August.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

There's many different ways population could be controlled so perhaps you could be more specific with your blanket statement. If someone is able and can afford to properly care for and adequately raise several children then I don't see a problem with that. My children are well behaved, intelligent and talented - certainly not a detriment to society. If you'd like to discuss this topic more then shoot me an email.


Bzzz. Bzzz. Hornet's nest stirred.
634 & 632 you are exactly right. Get the government OUT of the private sector!
Psssss.

New Entry is up..this ones stale..
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just thought I'd stop in and deliver some great news in weather for once. The drought that had been plaguing Florida for nearly 8 months seems to be coming to an end. Been amazing to see Mother Nature turn the page so quickly on what had been a historic drought. By this time next week, with the active pattern still over Southern Florida, I expect the drought to be gone completely.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/pics/fl_dm.png




Hello??
How long have you lived in Florida?
Obviously not long enough to understand the huge rainfall deficit we are still involved with:


Rain makes dent in South Florida drought; more storms expected


The last two weeks of rain matched the previous six months' worth, but it wasn't enough to wash away lingering impacts of drought in South Florida.

Link
Marco Island...
having the oil companies dictate the economy is a different story though...

I live in an area where over 60% of the people work for the oil companies I can think of 8 of the major oil companies and many more smaller ones in my area. The night sky looks like a major city because of all the refineries and this area's very existence relies on these companies so I say what I say with complete knowledge of the business.

Back to the weather... I didn't take part in the OSSGSS contest though I wish I would have now...
CatDL

I meant no offense with my comment to you personally or people who drive suburbans and have lots of kids. Sorry if it was taken the wrong way.
Hades~ it was such a quick glance I failed to relize the EPAC blob is less than 10N. Showing tenacity early on there. The last 24 hr loop of it sucking in the gulf blob energy is impressive. Land & time of day may have helped. GFS totally missed that.

Er,,the Good Dr. Masters has a NEW ENTRY UP.

Ya'll posting in Space..LOL
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
TCW, before the SUV boom, seatbelts weren't a law so big families just crammed them into whatever car they had. ;)


I personally rode cross country 30+ years ago in my play pen in the back of a van. Different times, truly.