WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Sean, rare Mediterranean hybrid, and AK superstorm forms; quakes and tornadoes in OK

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:52 PM GMT on November 08, 2011

Subtropical Storm Sean formed this morning between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Sean's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to eighteen, tying 2011 with 1969 as the 6th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, and 2010 have had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. We've had an average number of hurricanes--six--meaning that only 33% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There have been three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--has been about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for the unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE.


Figure 1. The subtropical disturbance that became Subtropical Storm Sean, as seen at 1 pm EST November 7, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Infrared satellite loops reveal that Sean has developed a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center that is increasing in intensity and areal coverage. While the low-level circulation center is exposed to view, a band of thunderstorms is trying to wrap around and close of the center. If this occurs, more substantial strengthening can occur, since the center will be walled off from the dry air that is currently interfering with development. Bermuda radar shows weak rain bands from Sean rippling across the island, with the strongest rain showers well to the island's southwest. Sustained winds at the Bermuda airport have been under 30 mph this morning. Sustained winds near tropical storm force were occurring this morning at buoy 41048, about 300 miles west of Bermuda. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph at 6:50 am EST. Strong upper-level winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over Sean, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Sean is a relatively shallow storm, and the tops of its thunderstorms extend up only to about the 300 mb level. Normally, a tropical storm extends up to about 200 mb. The shallow nature of Sean's thunderstorms mean that the storm is less vulnerable to wind shear than normal, since the storm is not feeling the strongest winds aloft. Ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C (80°F), which is right at the boundary of being warm enough to support tropical storm formation.

Forecast for Sean
Sean will drift slowly west or northwest today and Wednesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will remain about where it is now through Thursday morning, which should allow Sean to slowly intensify to a 50 mph storm. If Sean can make the transition to a fully tropical storm, more significant intensification can occur. The computer models show little or no development of Sean, with none of our reliable models predicting it will become a hurricane. Bermuda is the only land area that need concern itself with Sean, as a trough of low pressure is expected to absorb the storm on Thursday and lift it quickly to the north or northeast. The center of Sean could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring the island heavy rain squalls and sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph on Thursday and Friday. NHC is giving a 28% chance that Bermuda will receive tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph. High wind shear should destroy Sean on Friday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of the hybrid low named "Rolf" in the Mediterranean Sea at 10:30 UTC November 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France
An unusual hybrid low pressure system has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, about 100 miles south of the coast of France. The low began as an extratropical storm named "Rolf", but has stalled out over the relatively warm waters of the Mediterranean over the past two days, and has acquired tropical characteristics. Heavy thunderstorms have built over the northeast portion of the low, and the storm has a symmetric spiral shape with a cloud-free center, like a tropical storm. The Navy is calling this system Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the Mediterranean Sea, so they are not issuing any products for 99L. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) is giving 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. French radar shows heavy rains from 99L are beginning to affect Southeast France and the island of Corsica. The Lion Buoy, located about 100 miles to the west of the center of 99L, recorded sustained winds of tropical storm force, 40 mph, at 00 UTC yesterday. Water temperatures at the buoy were 17°C (63°F), far below the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 22°C during Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. I doubt that NHC would name this system if they did have responsibility for the Mediterranean, due to the cold water temperatures.

"Rolf" is expected to move slowly northwards into the coast of South France by Wednesday night. Meteo France is predicting heavy rains of 30 - 40 mm/hr (1.2 - 1.6"/hr) will affect the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph.


Figure 3. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over water of 21.5°C. "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to "extremely strong westerly wind." The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algeirs, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

According to research published by Gaertner et al. (2007), an increase in ocean temperatures of 3°C in the Mediterranean by the end of the century could lead to hurricanes forming there. Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, ran 9 different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could reach 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Meteo France has an interesting animation of the predicted winds and temperatures over the next few days.

Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations,, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image from the Tipton, OK tornado of November 7, 2011, showing a classic hook echo.


Video 1. Reed Timmer video of the November 7, 2011 tornado in Tipton, OK. Here's another excellent video of the Tipton tornado and a tornado near Manitou, OK from Texas Storm Chasers. Storm chasing IS dangerous: one storm chaser had his vehicle overturned, but got into another vehicle and continued the chase.

Shaken and stirred: an earthquake and tornado for Oklahoma
It was a rare multi-natural hazard day for Oklahoma yesterday, as the state experienced both a tornado and an earthquake, six hours apart. The damaging magnitude 5.6 earthquake that shook the state Saturday night spawned a magnitude 4.7 aftershock at 8:46 pm CST yesterday, 44 miles east of Oklahoma City. And at 2:47 pm CST, a tornado touched down in Southwest Oklahoma near Tipton. The tornado destroyed an Oklahoma State University agricultural office, and damaged a hay barn at a dairy farm. No injuries were reported. The UK MailOnline has an interesting article showing the radar image from Saturday's quake, which captured a massive groups of birds and insects that took flight after the ground shook.

This afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas, Southeast Missouri, and most of Arkansas in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, thanks to a strong low pressure system moving across the Plains. During the late afternoon, severe thunderstorms with high winds and large hail and expected over the region, and we cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

Bering Sea superstorm targets Alaska
A massive blizzard the National Weather Service is calling one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record is gathering strength today to the west of Alaska. The storm is expected to "bomb" to a central pressure of 945 - 950 mb Tuesday night, and to 940 mb on Wednesday. These pressures, characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, will be strong enough to generate sustained winds of Category 1 hurricane force over the waters to the west of Alaska, with winds of 50 - 70 mph expected along portions of the coast. Nome, Alaska is expecting a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet. Waves of 15 - 25 feet with ice on top will batter the shores, causing severe damage to the coast.

Jeff Masters
Chaser Cap
Chaser Cap
This is a screen capture taken during a chase near Lawton, OK.

Earthquake Severe Weather Winter Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hello dr jeffmasters how cold does the gfs show for jacksonville
Thanks for the update. Lots going on for the second week of November...
this Alaskan storm has my interest! crazy part of me thinks there is a teleconnection of intensifying cyclonic activity in the northern hemisphere about... season shifts are exciting times for us weather folks :)
I told you all we'd get one more storm.
Thanks Dr.
Thanks Dr. Masters. A big swirly in the Mediterranean, earthquakes AND tornadoes in Oklahoma. What a weird week!
AL-19 "Sean" WV Image/Loop

..click image for Loop

Sean (AL19)
Dang... active week!
I have friends in Cold Bay AK...wunder how they'll fare in the coming storm...
Thanks Jeff...
a weird week indeed, not too mention a comet, astroid, and now the emergency whatever thing for tomorrow...and alos the tsunami warning stuff?? something is going on...oh and almost forgot about the sunspots that are gong to be facing us...should be a intersting rest of the week....
Quoting presslord:
I have friends in Cold Bay AK...wunder how they'll fare in the coming storm...
I can see some of it here..Good morning..This NASDA link how strong it is..Link Then again maybe not..
Dr. Masters,

Can't remember where I found it off the top of my head, but while trying to put this Mediterranean storm in context I did some reading and some link chasing on various blogs. From that I recall some sources suggesting that warm-core, semi-tropical systems in the Mediterranean happen maybe as often as every 1-2 years, and even the strongest of them occur over much cooler sea surface temperatures than one would expect. I do not recall a mechanism suggested for why this would happen, but I'm wondering if our current "threshold" for water temps based on Atlantic experience may be a little fuzzy in the Mediterranean due to factors we do not fully understand?
Quoting Minnemike:
this Alaskan storm has my interest! crazy part of me thinks there is a teleconnection of intensifying cyclonic activity in the northern hemisphere about... season shifts are exciting times for us weather folks :)

We have seen this occur for a while back in the mid 1980's where anti-cyclonic highs and also deep lows treked up near and north of the 60 degree line to the pole. It also occurred in the 1940's, so not unprecedented and not a permanent trend by any means.

Still interesting nonetheless!
From previous blog:

Quoting ScottLincoln:

Which is not particularly relevant when it comes to climate and climate change. But even if it were, the last decade was the warmest on record, beating the 1990s - thus saying that there has been "no warming in 13yrs" is not a correct statement. It has been found through scientific study that you need 15-20yrs of data to be able to establish the long term trend from data that includes natural variability. The BEST data is also land only; oceans cover the majority of the planet's surface and store massively larger amounts of heat energy.




You start by saying it isn't validated, then you say you need more information. Let's stick with the later. You cannot validate a climate forecast over a period of 10 years. Predictions were not meant to be down-scaled to a yearly timestep, doing so suggests a lack of knowledge in what climate change means, or an attempt to distort. And no, not all climate projections are from the year 2000 - predictions of warming due to the physical properties of greenhouse gases have been made for many decades.



That would be a more realistic way to test the theory than trying to look at a trend over a 10 year period (since 2000). If the average temperature of the 2030-2039 decade ends up being not warmer than the present decade (with no major volcanic/solar wildcards), then many climate scientists would be scratching their heads.

In a nutshell, then, you just validating a great point. That 130 or so years of official record keeping (that's only the CONUS) greatly leaves many uncertainties as to whether or not any human activity has contributed to global warming within a 25 year warming trend. A trend, by the way, which appears leveling off now.

We'll know much more in 30-40 years... However, the vast majority of climatologists are far from a conclusion that human effects are having an influence on the globe's climate.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

We have seen this occur for a while back in the mid 1980's where anti-cyclonic highs and also deep lows treked up near and north of the 60 degree line to the pole. It also occurred in the 1940's, so not unprecedented and not a permanent trend by any means.

Still interesting nonetheless!
did not mean to infer any trends or precedence... just that everything seems to 'churn up' at the same time, and my inference being seasonal shifts.. my intrigue being the active bombing out of the Aleutian low ;)
Sean and that upper-level low are responsible for some very strange conditions in Bermuda. Well, according to people I know from there, they've been having huge storms and incredibly large swells for days now, and the forecast suggests that this will continue for days more. They've had most of the coastal areas breached already, I wonder how they'll fare when Sean makes his closest pass. He seems to be organizing quickly. Do you think there's a chance he can be stronger than forecast?

And that Alaskan weatherbomb system looks like it'll be ferocious. And the cyclone in the Mediterranean? Tornadoes, earthquakes? I'm not religious, but this seems very Ten Commandments-y to me, haha.
So what is more fun than an earthquake?

An earthquake while sitting in the dark during a raging thunderstorm.

An interesting observation in the OKC paper this morning:

"For the record, we believe Oklahomans have little to fear from tsunamis or alpine avalanches."

Not so sure lately. Everything is fine - though quite interesting past few days.


Looks like Sean has more storms wrapping around the center. Look at the hook!
Quoting WarEagle8:

Looks like Sean has more storms wrapping around the center. Look at the hook!


EF-5 Waterspout!
Will all of you bloggers stop posting X's. I want to see some action.
Quoting Grothar:
Will all of you bloggers stop posting X's. I want to see some action.
How bout a link..Maybe....Mornin Gro...Link
Guess Dr. M didn't see that this is actually a tropical cyclone and not "like a tropical cyclone"

TXMM21 KNES 071819
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 41.1N

D. 5.3E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS…DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

…SCHWARTZ

And the Atlantic keeps disliking ending a season at 17 storms.

Hurricanes in the Med would be something, though won't be around to see it. 3c increase in around 100 years is quite sharp and sounds a bit too aggressive, though the Med is particularly situated.

I wonder if hurricanes have ever formed in the Mediterranean (at least in the Holocene). Be too far back for paleotempestology in likelihood.

Quoting hydrus:
How bout a link..Maybe....Mornin Gro...Link


Hi, hy! That's better.
Quoting Cotillion:
And the Atlantic keeps disliking ending a season at 17 storms.

Hurricanes in the Med would be something, though won't be around to see it. 3c increase in around 100 years is quite sharp and sounds a bit too aggressive, though the Med is particularly situated.

I wonder if hurricanes have ever formed in the Mediterranean (at least in the Holocene). Be too far back for paleotempestology in likelihood.

My vote is yes...Good afternoon cott..
Quoting hydrus:
My vote is yes...Good afternoon cott..


Evening. It's possible in one of the brief climatic upswings during the epoch.
Quoting hydrus:
How bout a link..Maybe....Mornin Gro...Link


That is an impressive looking storm. So what impact might that have for the lower 48. I assume a storm like that will funnel extremely cold air into the lower 48 as it passes.
Alaska
Quoting VAstorms:


That is an impressive looking storm. So what impact might that have for the lower 48. I assume a storm like that will funnel extremely cold air into the lower 48 as it passes.
a Pacific front possibly. I'm still looking at it. Hello VA.
Quoting Grothar:
Will all of you bloggers stop posting X's. I want to see some action.


Good to see ya Gro
I am a little suspect of the statement "6th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851."

There had to be many seasons with unknown storms that lived and died in the open water that were unknown to weather observers.

Without the benefit of satellite observations, it's almost like saying "This year is the 6th busiest for racoon sightings in my town since 1851" when in fact it's only been since the 1960's that observers were out looking at night with flashlights.
Quoting Mach80:
I am a little suspect of the statement "6th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851."

There had to be many seasons with unknown storms that lived and died in the open water that were unknown to weather observers.

Without the benefit of satellite observations, it's almost like saying "This year is the 6th busiest for racoon sightings in my town since 1851" when in fact it's only been since the 1960's that observers were out looking at night with flashlights.
That issue comes up quite regularly..I think they are doing there best with what they have in that department..
So Sean is now fully tropical and looking nice, although its convection is a little on the light side.

Quoting Mach80:
I am a little suspect of the statement "6th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851."

There had to be many seasons with unknown storms that lived and died in the open water that were unknown to weather observers.

Without the benefit of satellite observations, it's almost like saying "This year is the 6th busiest for racoon sightings in my town since 1851" when in fact it's only been since the 1960's that observers were out looking at night with flashlights.


And so you should be.

It's based off what we know, but we can be reasonably sure that most, if not all, seasons had higher numbers than documented. We just don't know how many, particularly in relation to today. The further you go back, the more you miss.

Still doesn't take away the fact that this season is special. Even with estimated numbers, as opposed to the official statistics, 18 storm seasons do not occur often. Guess it's been discussed a fair bit lately on here.
Agree with the posters.

I still feel the statement borders on hype and it's something that we understand here, but when regurgitated ad naseum on the W-channel and the evening news, it also somehow finds it's way into my insurance bill.

"We understand customers are upset about the latest premium increase, but 2011 was the 6th busiest season since records were kept in the last 160 years"

Thanks
This is going to be a fall season to remember,just about everything except the kitchen sink,better keep your eyes to the sky.
Received .03 here today in South Central Texas not much but at least the roads got wet, at least it was measurable, better than my usual trace, LOL
Quoting hydrus:
a Pacific front possibly. I'm still looking at it. Hello VA.


Wondering if the folks in Seattle will get a taste of this as well.
Quoting Mach80:
Agree with the posters.

I still feel the statement borders on hype and it's something that we understand here, but when regurgitated ad naseum on the W-channel and the evening news, it also somehow finds it's way into my insurance bill.

"We understand customers are upset about the latest premium increase, but 2011 was the 6th busiest season since records were kept in the last 160 years"

Thanks


Perhaps we should all write to the NHC and have them add 12 storms a year since 1851 which would make this the 119th most active year since records were kept. Then our insurance premiums would go down since we could tell them that things were getting better. My question is, if a hurricane formed in the Atlantic in 1869 and there wasn't anybody to see it, was it really there??? Most of the posts on here are intelligent but sometimes they are so philosophically like a Zen koan. Ridiculous.

Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good to see ya Gro


Nice to see me, too!
Fully tropical now, says ATCF. Winds are up to 45 knots:

AL, 19, 2011110818, , BEST, 0, 278N, 695W, 45, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 200, 120, 150, 200, 1009, 300, 65, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEAN, D,
Hey, did any of you know there is a big storm near Alaska? :)


Rolf is about to make landfall in france. It has the classic subtropical look. If it was 2 miles west of Portugal, it would be TAMMY (senior moment, sorry. Because it is called Rolf I wrote Rina). But it's not under NHC responsibility.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Received .03 here today in South Central Texas not much but at least the roads got wet, at least it was measurable, better than my usual trace, LOL


Not seeing a line materialize at all like I thought would come about, horrible looking, not got get anything good
Hello Dr. M,
at 2:47 pm CST, a tornado touched down in Southwest Oklahoma near Tillman.
Um... Tillman's the county. Tipton's the town.
:)

Some good news for Oklahoma also. Relatively little damage and widespread rain.

Three day totals.

image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet
used with permission
Rolf is more like a polar low than a genuine tropical storm; he is being driven by the temperature difference between sea surface and feed air more than by latent heat. That is why he can survive over such cold water.
Quoting winter123:
Rolf is about to make landfall in france. It has the classic subtropical look. If it was 2 miles west of Portugal, it would be Rina. But it's not under NHC responsibility.


Why would it be Rina? I would think it would have been the T storm if that were the case. Didn't we already have Rina here, or am I having another senior moment?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Received .03 here today in South Central Texas not much but at least the roads got wet, at least it was measurable, better than my usual trace, LOL


Hang in there. Rain'll happen.
Quoting Hangten:


Most of the posts on here are intelligent but sometimes they are so philosophically like a Zen koan. Ridiculous.



Charming.

My observation was a low level nitpick regarding one comment on a blog that I admire and greatly respect. It wasn't intended to degenerate into a Yahoo chatboard.

I fully understand the activity this year and am sure that it ranks as very active even since satellite observations began. As I mentioned, I had a concern about comments that may be taken out of context.

Thanks
First honest to goodness thunderstorm crossing across IAH right now here in Houston. Haven't seen rain like this in months. Cell shows nicely on radar, tracking SW to NE across NW part of Houston.
Quoting HouGalv08:
First honest to goodness thunderstorm crossing across IAH right now here in Houston. Haven't seen rain like this in months. Cell shows nicely on radar, tracking SW to NE across NW part of Houston.


Looking at Transtar cams, shows good pics
000
WTNT34 KNHC 081735
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
200 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
Quoting Grothar:


Why would it be Rina? I would think it would have been the T storm if that were the case. Didn't we already have Rina here, or am I having another senior moment?
Remnant Rina ? jk.....:)


Synoptic map of Europe as of 08.11 00z,Rolf is southeast of France
lots of happy surfers in italy
Quoting VAstorms:


Wondering if the folks in Seattle will get a taste of this as well.
It looks like most of the storm will go way north of the lower 48..The troughs are starting to line up tho...bbl
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, did any of you know there is a big storm near Alaska? :)


was on twc how they were thinking of evacuating some villiage
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Hang in there. Rain'll happen.
Been saying that for 14 months, will believe it when I see it, maybe next tropical season will get Texas wet but that is 8 or 9 months away? That will be my next good chance at put some water in the dry Lakes rain.
Link

Sean will have an eye?
Quoting RitaEvac:


Not seeing a line materialize at all like I thought would come about, horrible looking, not got get anything good
Good rains developed East of IH 35 when front came thru, East of Dallas into East Texas and around Houston there are good storms but only drizzle happened around here.
Tornado warnings in East Texas and north and east of Houston.


838
WFUS54 KHGX 081922
TORHGX
TXC201-291-339-082000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0018.111108T1922Z-111108T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
122 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 118 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HUMBLE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PORTER...NEW CANEY...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...WOODBRANCH...
SPLENDORA...ROMAN FOREST...PLUM GROVE...PATTON VILLAGE AND
KINGWOOD.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3029 9519 3017 9494 2992 9527 2999 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 214DEG 23KT 3000 9526

NE Houston



Who else thinks sean could become a hurricane very quickly? It has 2/3 of an eyewall. Not a very strong eyewall, but it's there.
646
WFUS54 KSHV 081943
TORSHV
TXC347-401-082030-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0082.111108T1943Z-111108T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 141 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SACUL...OR 16 MILES EAST OF RUSK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TRAWICK...GARRISON AND MINDEN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Getting dark out there



Quoting winter123:
Who else thinks sean could become a hurricane very quickly? It has 2/3 of an eyewall. Not a very strong eyewall, but it's there.


I think so.French model(post #63) clearly shows it,water is warm enough,and shear is low enough.
Downtown Houston




Astrodome and Reliant Stadium in background

Getting hook echo crossing into Liberty county line, tornado warning in effect



944
WFUS54 KHGX 082001
TORHGX
TXC201-291-082045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0019.111108T2001Z-111108T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
201 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 157 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF PLUM GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...MOSS HILL...LIBERTY...KENEFICK...HARDIN...
DAYTON LAKES...DAYTON AND DAISETTA.

A TORNADO WAS SIGHTED EARLIER NEAR ATASCOCITA WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3003 9507 3009 9517 3013 9515 3017 9509
3021 9511 3032 9507 3049 9473 3047 9471
3045 9472 3005 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 235DEG 19KT 3012 9508



CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Desert Storm: Oman to be hit with second cyclone system within a week

November 8, 2011 – OMAN – Last week, Oman was hit by Cyclone Keila which left 14 people dead and Oman under nearly 2 meters of water in some places. Now, the country is about to be hit again with Cyclone 4- the fourth such cyclone to form in the Arabian Sea this year.

'Life-threatening' storm bears down on Alaska's west coast - Gusts up to 80 mph as well as storm surge will test towns

Link

A rapidly intensifying storm was approaching the west coast of Alaska on Tuesday and could become "one of the worst on record" for the region, the National Weather Service said in an alert.
The alert, issued by the NWS in Fairbanks, said the "extremely dangerous" storm would lash coastal areas from Tuesday night into Wednesday. It was expected to be just west of the Bering Strait by Tuesday night and then move into the southern Chukchi Sea on Wednesday.
The storm will likely be "life-threatening ... one of the worst on record," the service said.



332
WFUS54 KSHV 082014
TORSHV
TXC423-459-499-082045-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0084.111108T2014Z-111108T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
214 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LINDALE...
OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF TYLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAWKINS AND BIG SANDY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Quoting Mach80:


Charming.

My observation was a low level nitpick regarding one comment on a blog that I admire and greatly respect. It wasn't intended to degenerate into a Yahoo chatboard.

I fully understand the activity this year and am sure that it ranks as very active even since satellite observations began. As I mentioned, I had a concern about comments that may be taken out of context.

Thanks


Jumping in here. One thing to bear in mind is that during the 19th and early 20th centuries there were literally hundreds of ships at sea in the Atlantic at any given time. All of them were equipped with barometers, thermometers, etc., and all of them had crews with a life-and-death interest in the weather and years of experience as observers.

Satellite observations have made the job of predicting storms much more effective, and the info from them is available in real time. However, there was a very great deal of observational info available after the fact in previous eras, and that's what the records are based on.
True BN-Dave,

Not sure about the Cape Verde storms that curved into the central Atlantic, but anything reaching the North Atlantic as well as the Caribbean/Gulf M would definately leave a path in ships records with the amount of traffic over the last 200+ years.

cheers
Where is Levi?
Bone dry air behind this front and by the time moisture comes back here another front comes thru limiting my rain chances, better moisture east into east texas and Louisiana every time. Seeing humidity west of me near 10 percent. Weather sure is getting extreme and severe though from severe drought to tornadoes to the giant storm in Alaska. Everything seems record breaking from flooding to snow, etc. I wonder if this is our new future in weather? Extreme and Severe?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Where is Levi?


battening down the hatches for the historic storm
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bone dry air behind this front and by the time moisture comes back here another front comes thru limiting my rain chances, better moisture east into east texas and Louisiana every time. Seeing humidity west of me near 10 percent. Weather sure is getting extreme and severe though from severe drought to tornadoes to the giant storm in Alaska. Everything seems record breaking from flooding to snow, etc. I wonder if this is our new future in weather? Extreme and Severe?


And then when the economy crashes in 2012, we'll think it's the end of times...
357
WFUS54 KSHV 082027
TORSHV
TXC365-401-419-082115-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0085.111108T2027Z-111108T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
227 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
EAST CENTRAL RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MINDEN...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PINEHILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.



LAT...LON 3232 9437 3209 9409 3190 9458 3201 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 225DEG 35KT 3196 9458



23

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab TX Page

The Nexlab AR Page

The Nexlab OK Page
A Quick check of the wunderblogs Directory can find most everyone that has a entry currently.
501
WFUS54 KSHV 082031
TORSHV
OKC089-082115-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0086.111108T2031Z-111108T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 227 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF
HOCHATOWN...OR 30 MILES WEST OF DE QUEEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED EARLIER WITH THIS STORM NEAR VALLIANT.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
HERMAN...SHERWOOD...SMITHVILLE...WATSON...BEACHTON AND
PLUNKETVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3450 9446 3426 9446 3405 9484 3419 9497
3452 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 234DEG 29K
DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.
TORNADO WARNING
TXC365-401-419-082115-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0085.111108T2027Z-111108T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
227 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
EAST CENTRAL RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MINDEN...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PINEHILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 9437 3209 9409 3190 9458 3201 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 225DEG 35KT 3196 9458

$$

23
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
210 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-
165>167-082200-
ANGELINA-BOWIE-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-FRANKLIN-GREGG- HARRISON-HOWARD-
LITTLE RIVER-MARION-MCCURTAIN-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-PANOLA-R ED RIVER TX-
RUSK-SABINE TX-SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UPSHUR-WOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHDOWN...ATLANTA...CARTHAGE...CENTER...
CLARKSVILLE...DAINGERFIELD...DE QUEEN...GILMER...HEMPHILL...
HENDERSON...IDABEL...JEFFERSON...LONGVIEW...LUFKI N...MARSHALL...
MT PLEASANT...MT VERNON...NACOGDOCHES...NASHVILLE...NEW BOSTON...
PITTSBURG...QUITMAN...RUSK...SAN AUGUSTINE...TYLER
210 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

.NOW...
...TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 6 PM CST...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... HAVE INTENSIFIED AND APPEAR TO HAVE
SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL. WILL INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY STRONG
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...
AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. A LARGE PORTION OF THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 259 CORRIDOR...BY 3 PM...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. ANOTHER VERY
INTENSE STORM WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE CARTHAGE AND TENAHA AREA...BY 3
PM.

$$
Good afternoon all, I see we have Tropical Storm Sean now.

I'll be the first to say it...Sean is going to strengthen more than currently forecast, with an outside chance of reaching hurricane intensity.



168
WFUS54 KSHV 082036
TORSHV
TXC423-082100-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0087.111108T2036Z-111108T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
236 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 231 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SMITH
COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF TYLER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



LAT...LON 3247 9523 3252 9502 3252 9499 3241 9498
3240 9499 3239 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 257DEG 29KT 3245 9517
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

TORNADO WATCH 875 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-037-063-067-073-119-159-161-183-203-21 3-223-225-277-
289-293-313-315-343-347-349-365-379-387-395-401-4 03-405-419-423-
449-455-459-467-499-090000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0875.111108T1650Z-111109T0000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA BOWIE
CAMP CASS CHEROKEE
DELTA FRANKLIN FREESTONE
GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON
HOPKINS HOUSTON LAMAR
LEON LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
NAVARRO PANOLA RAINS
RED RIVER ROBERTSON RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
SMITH TITUS TRINITY
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...HGX...TSA...
000
WTNT34 KNHC 082034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
500 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
168
WFUS54 KSHV 082036
TORSHV
TXC423-082100-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0087.111108T2036Z-111108T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
236 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 231 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SMITH
COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF TYLER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



LAT...LON 3247 9523 3252 9502 3252 9499 3241 9498
3240 9499 3239 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 257DEG 29KT 3245 9517
DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.
332
WFUS54 KSHV 082014
TORSHV
TXC423-459-499-082045-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0084.111108T2014Z-111108T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
214 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LINDALE...
OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF TYLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAWKINS AND BIG SANDY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Transition fully made. We have Sean a full TS:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081735
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
200 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
Seems like NWS is taking this one seriously. That's probably a good thing:
------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...


A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST
...WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.


ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

AGAIN...THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...

A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST...WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.

ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

AGAIN...THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.


072
WFUS54 KLCH 082044
TORLCH
TXC199-082130-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0023.111108T2044Z-111108T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
244 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SARATOGA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 240 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF
BATSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BATSON BY 315 PM CST...
VOTAW BY 320 PM CST...
THICKET BY 325 PM CST...
SARATOGA BY 330 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.


072
WFUS54 KLCH 082044
TORLCH
TXC199-082130-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0023.111108T2044Z-111108T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
244 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SARATOGA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 240 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF
BATSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BATSON BY 315 PM CST...
VOTAW BY 320 PM CST...
THICKET BY 325 PM CST...
SARATOGA BY 330 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
TORNADO WARNING
TXC423-082100-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0087.111108T2036Z-111108T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
236 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 231 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SMITH
COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF TYLER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3247 9523 3252 9502 3252 9499 3241 9498
3240 9499 3239 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 257DEG 29KT 3245 9517

$$

23
Quoting sunlinepr:
Alaska

Hope people stay safe, I wish somebody could document this, like a hurricane chase video, because this would be interesting to see.
Quoting Articuno:

Hope people stay safe, I wish somebody could document this, like a hurricane chase video, because this would be interesting to see.

What's up bud?
Sean looking good.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

What's up bud?

Not much.
Just a regular day.
:>
This is absolutely no joke for our west coast residents. This is as dangerous as the weather can ever get in this part of the world.

Buoy south of the Alaska storm center in the Bering Sea is already gusting to hurricane force and pressure into the 960s.

I guess Fla. is safe then ?
TS SEAN in RGB image this aft.



Quoting Levi32:
This is absolutely no joke for our west coast residents. This is as dangerous as the weather can ever get in this part of the world.


Just hope it doesn't get to bad where you live, stay safe, for us. I just hope that everyone is batting down the hatches, because this is a serious thing, nothing to joke about, it's a life or death
situation.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
Today is turning out to be a bigger tornado day then yesterday surprisingly.
Good bet for now, may go up further if Sean continues to strengthen.

36H 10/0600Z 29.0N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
That chaser video in Masters' entry was insane.

Levi~ When I saw how that storm was coming together up your way last night, I hoped I'd get to catch your take on it. That thing looks like it's gonna bomb..
36H 10/0600Z 29.0N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH


That's a 36 hr forecast position and Strength Guess'timate
Quoting Levi32:
This is absolutely no joke for our west coast residents. This is as dangerous as the weather can ever get in this part of the world.




It makes hurricanes look like an ant...
Quoting Zapdos:



It makes hurricanes look like an ant...

Not really..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not really..


It is bigger than alaska...
Hey, Levi, see if you can post this link on the blog as an animated image. Nice image of the Bering Straits storm.




Link
Quoting Skyepony:
That chaser video in Masters' entry was insane.

Levi~ When I saw how that storm was coming together up your way last night, I hoped I'd get to catch your take on it. That thing looks like it's gonna bomb..


18z analysis just came out, and it's down to 948mb.

Quoting Grothar:
Hey, Levi, see if you can post this link on the blog as an animated image. Nice image of the Bering Straits storm.




Link


WOW, that sure looks like a powerful storm. I haven't been following it too closely. Does anyone know if it will stay north of the 48, especially north of Washington State, Oregon and California?
Quoting FtMyersgal:


WOW, that sure looks like a powerful storm. I haven't been following it too closely. Does anyone know if it will stay north of the 48, especially north of Washington State, Oregon and California?


It is! I don't ever remember seeing anything that powerful. The last report said it will move NORTHWEST. It could be a misprint or it might move back NORTHWEST. I guess we have to ask Levi.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...

A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

Quoting Levi32:


18z analysis just came out, and it's down to 948mb.



948?? That's the equal to a Category 4 hurricane in pressure.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


WOW, that sure looks like a powerful storm. I haven't been following it too closely. Does anyone know if it will stay north of the 48, especially north of Washington State, Oregon and California?


It's going to dissipate within the polar vortex just north of Siberia, and won't be coming anywhere close to the lower 48. This storm is literally being generated by the northern hemisphere anchoring polar vortex diving into Siberia.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 42.8N 6.5E, or 112 km southeast of Marseille (France), 205 km west northwest of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 45 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Both shear and dry air seem to have taken their toll on 01M/99L. Latest HVIS data indicated a tilted vortex with the low level circulation center is somewhat displaced to the southwest (probably forced by modest northwest/westerly shear at higher levels). Current thinking is that if any warm-core structure is present, it will be a tilted one. Nevertheless, latest SAB update indicated another increase in strength and latest ASCAT data reveals 40-45 kt in the northern quadrant (some arrows not contaminated by ongoing DMC). The question arises, if this is not more typical for a subtropical feature due to ongoing modest shear. The system also has looped during the past few hours with only marginal movement to the north. A band of intense convection affects parts of SE-France right now and heavy to isolated excessive rainfall will be an imminent risk, next to an isolated tornado event with augmented LL shear! Further bands with heavy rainfall may affect southeastern France/west Ligurian coast during the night as the cyclone remains just offshore. Future intensity signals are mixed for 01M, as shear abates somewhat but it remains atop marginal cooler sea surface temperatures and it has drier air to the west to work with. Soundings upstream also confirm a slow warming trend at mid-levels. We would not be surprised to see a more pulsating activity of DMC next to the center/along the bands during the next 12-24h, but overall signs are more against another intense flare-up of persistent DMC. Models still show a stalling or westward moving system while weakening ahead of another upper trough over the far west Atlantic.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


948?? That's the equal to a Category 4 hurricane in pressure.


Believe it or not we've seen worse. We had a 931mb low out there in the 1990s. It delivered a 147mph wind gust to Dutch Harbor.
Nice video, Dr. M! Argh. Watching the chasers just kills me though. That's where I've wanted to be for so stinkin long, but here I am in a cubicle waiting for the clock to hit five, sneaking looks at radar loops whenever I can. Oh well! Gotta make a dollar somehow. :)
Thanks for posting, Dr. Masters! Your blog gives me the mental escape I need, and brightens up my day.
Thanks for that info Levi! Keep us posted. I wonder what the surge map looks like?
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thanks for that info Levi! Keep us posted. I wonder what the surge map looks like?


Quoting Levi32:




Thank doesn't look good for Nome if I'm reading that right..
Quoting Levi32:


Believe it or not we've seen worse. We had a 931mb low out there in the 1990s. It delivered a 147mph wind gust to Dutch Harbor.


Truly insane though. And its massive too.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Seems like NWS is taking this one seriously. That's probably a good thing:
------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...


A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST
...WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.


ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

AGAIN...THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.


YIKES!
I hope the Northwestern and TimeBandit are not braving this system as I'm sure those waves are in the 30' to 50' range.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


YIKES!

Why were you trolling the other day?
I hope the crab fleet out at Dutch is taking precautions. Looks sorta nasty. Cold and nasty.
948mb is not a category 4 hurricane up in Alaska, CybrTeddy. It is much too cold for those types storms.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:
948mb is not a category 4 hurricane up in Alaska, CybrTeddy. It is much too cold for those types storms.
:/. Should I even say anything about this statment?
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:
948mb is not a category 4 hurricane up in Alaska, CybrTeddy. It is much too cold for those types storms.

He's saying that 948 mbar. is equivalent to Category 4 hurricane pressure, which it is.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's saying that 948 mbar. is equivalent to Category 4 hurricane pressure, which it is.

Not, it's not a category 4 storm. It can't be a hurricane up there. It's a different type of storm.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Not, it's not a category 4 storm. It can't be a hurricane up there. It's a different type of storm.

No, you're not understanding.

What CybrTed is saying is that the storm up there has a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane down here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, you're not understanding.

What CybrTed is saying is that the storm up there has a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane down here.

Oh ok. But didn't Alex have a 948mb pressure. And he was only a category 2...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, you're not understanding.

What CybrTed is saying is that the storm up there has a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane down here.


Bingo.

Said equal to pressure of a Category 4, obviously it is purely cold core extra-tropical.

I know a thing or two about hurricanes to know that they don't form by Alaska in November ;)
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Oh ok. But didn't Alex have a 948mb pressure. And he was only a category 2...

Well, a "typical" pressure for a Category 4 storm is what he is talking about. Alex is an exception.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, a "typical" pressure for a Category 4 storm is what he is talking about. Alex is an exception.

Ok. Ok. Thanks.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Oh ok. But didn't Alex have a 948mb pressure. And he was only a category 2...


Pressure depends on the size of the storm and how tight the core is. 940mb pressure usually means category 4, but Irene was 948mb as a category 1 hurricane at one point I believe.

Edit: She was 950mb and 80mph.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Oh ok. But didn't Alex have a 948mb pressure. And he was only a category 2...


Alex and Ike both had this issue. That is because both of these systems underwent rapid intensification in the GOMEX, but instead of strengthening winds, they became absolutely massive but the winds never caught up because of it. Basically, the wind field increased instead of the winds themselves actually increasing.
Size is a huge reason that Hurricane Irene struck much weaker than first anticipated, which of course is, to say the least, a good thing. Its huge sign gave it a large wind field, and it took longer for faster winds to cover a larger area. Yes, it had the pressure of a Category 3/4, but the winds were never able to catch up because of its size. Additionally, Irene began to encounter unfavorable conditions shortly after departing from the Bahamas, limited any potential intensification.

I would watch 12N/78W for some potential over the next few days!
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?
Quoting Cotillion:
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?

I imagine they could, since lows with minimum barometric pressure in the 930s have been recorded before.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's saying that 948 mbar. is equivalent to Category 4 hurricane pressure, which it is.


Actually, 948mb would be typically equivalent to a Category Three.

It may be a lower end Category Four at best.
Quoting Cotillion:


Actually, 948mb would be typically equivalent to a Category Three.

It may be a lower end Category Four at best.

You're right after looking at the SSHS, but its close enough :P

Category 3: 945-964 mbar.
Category 4: 920-944 mbar.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I would watch 12N/78W for some potential over the next few days!
Yes....I imagine you would....jmo
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I imagine they could, since lows with minimum barometric pressure in the 930s have been recorded before.


Yeah, I would too. Pacific pressures are generally lower anyway.

Usually, you hear most of the stronger storms in terms of pressure in the NATL, but that may just be bigger coverage (i.e. NATL storms will hit Europe, NPAC storms would hit eastern Russia or Alaska with less people).

Just seen Alaska's lowest pressure ever recorded as 927mb, so guess that answers it.
170. MTWX
Talk about a crazy week in weather.

- One of the largest Alaskan Systems in history

- A tropical storm in the Mediterranean with a tornado risk for France

- A spring type severe weather outbreak for the southern plains

definitely been interesting!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Alex and Ike both had this issue. That is because both of these systems underwent rapid intensification in the GOMEX, but instead of strengthening winds, they became absolutely massive but the winds never caught up because of it. Basically, the wind field increased instead of the winds themselves actually increasing.
scary what we could be dealing with the next few yrs
Quoting VirgilSolozzo:
Yes....I imagine you would....jmo
me too one more ever since the landfaller in burma weathers been odd
Quoting Cotillion:
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?


Do we have the same definition of polar low? What I think when I hear the word polar low. I don't think that they could possibly get to 920mb...
Quoting yqt1001:


Do we have the same definition of polar low? What I think when I hear the word polar low. I don't think hat they could possibly get to 920mb...


Yes, you'Re right, polar low got stuck in my head for some reason - think someone mentioned it in reference to the Med storm earlier.

Just a general extratropical cyclone.
Quoting Cotillion:
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?



yeah... poor penguins :(
Quoting VirgilSolozzo:
Yes....I imagine you would....jmo


I think there is still potential for the SW caribbean to produce one more tropical storm before the season ends, just saying....jmo also!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yeah... poor penguins :(


If you mean hockey, then sure (though I wouldn't express any sympathy).

If you mean the animal, wrong hemisphere.
Hello Everyone. Here I share this video again for those who have not seen it yet. This is a little documental I made about Hurricane Earl that brushed Puerto Rico in 2010. I hope you like it.


178. MTWX
Western and Central Arkansas you're up!! As night falls continue to monitor this potentially dangerous situation!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OK...WRN/CENTRAL AR...NERN TX AND NWRN LA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...

VALID 082148Z - 082315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 875 CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD FROM
WRN AR SSWWD INTO FAR SERN AR AND NERN TX. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR TUL/MLC SWD TO CLL.
THOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HAVE RESTRICTED SOME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL AR... STRONG FORCING COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR/WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ROTATING
STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SWRN AR SWWD INTO NERN TX. IN
THIS REGION...MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR NR 50
KT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH LOW LEVEL SRH AROUND 250
M2/S2...TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO
LINES/CLUSTERS...WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED HAIL.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yeah... poor penguins :(

There aren't any penguins in Alaska...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yeah... poor penguins :(

lol, penguins don't live in Alaska, they live in Antartica. ;)
Levi....I realize that few in Alaska really live in igloos.......but for those who do, are they automatically considered to be "hunkered down" at all times, or is there more that they do over normal to "hunker down" when these storms approach?
where'd everybody go
Quoting Articuno:
where'd everybody go

I don't know.

KoritheMan had a good idea the other day, making his own Tropical Cyclone Reports for the storms that developed during this season. I think I'll follow suit and do my own.
Quoting Articuno:
where'd everybody go



I don't know where but I read here that there is a new blog or website I don't know where it is and there is where a lot of people has migrated.
I've been trying to follow along with the Mediterranean system since yesterday, but can someone just clarify it a little bit for me?

As I understand the satellite based... interpretations.. have suggested that the system is "tropical," but have any of the official weather agencies (Berlin, NHC, or other) actually described it as a tropical storm? (I know it's out of NHC jurisdiction, so they probably don't have much to say)

Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I don't know where but I read here that there is a new blog or website I don't know where it is and there is where a lot of people has migrated.
Check your wumail
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Check your wumail



ok
Really nice hook forming on Twarned Cell in NW LA. Just south of Shreveport.
7 pm out, no change in strength with Sean.
echo echo echo !!!
Evening everybody. I'm still at work, but noticing the interesting weather out there in the ATL today.... we've had "hasty" winds all day, and the waves were crashing ashore as I drove in about 12 hours ago. I watching now to see how much Sean deepens.

And a Mediterranean storm! This has been one weird season....
I don't know much about this Winter Storms but this Huge Storm near Alaska could be a very nasty one.
195. eths
My french is not very good, but if I understand correctly: http://www.infoclimat.fr/ is reporting sustained winds for 01M (Rolf) of 100km/h with gusts of up to 154 kmh.
Quoting eths:
My french is not very good, but if I understand correctly: http://www.infoclimat.fr/ is reporting sustained winds for 01M (Rolf) of 100km/h with gusts of up to 154 kmh.
I see that. 2 Gust of above 130km.
"Le TMS (Tropical-like Mediterranean Storm) "01M" qui se situe au large de la Cote d'Azur occasionne des vents trs violents et une importante houle sur l'Est du Var. " Hmm..an official storm category called "Tropical-like Mediterranean Storm" sounds like a good one for 01M. Anyways looking through that website it looks like the highest 1-min sustained (I think) wind found was 104km/h..so that's 60mph winds?
Very well-defined tropical cyclone, although it still has some characteristics of a Subtropical storm, markedly the fact that the strongest winds are still located away from the center.

(Second image is more recent, but doesn't catch as much of the system.)



199. eths
Various clips from 01M in southern France can be found here.
Quoting Bahahurrican:
Evening everybody. I'm still at work, but noticing the interesting weather out there in the ATL today.... we've had "hasty" winds all day, and the waves were crashing ashore as I drove in about 12 hours ago. I watching now to see how much Sean deepens.

And a Mediterranean storm! This has been one weird season....


There has actually been 14 occasions that there has been a sub-tropical/tropical system(4 hurricane type storms)in the mediterranean.
203. eths
Quoting yqt1001:
"Le TMS (Tropical-like Mediterranean Storm) "01M" qui se situe au large de la Cote d'Azur occasionne des vents tr�s violents et une importante houle sur l'Est du Var. " Hmm..an official storm category called "Tropical-like Mediterranean Storm" sounds like a good one for 01M. Anyways looking through that website it looks like the highest 1-min sustained (I think) wind found was 104km/h..so that's 60mph winds?


100 kmh is about 60 mph and 150 kmh is roughly 90 mph.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Quoting Bahahurrican:
Evening everybody. I'm still at work, but noticing the interesting weather out there in the ATL today.... we've had "hasty" winds all day, and the waves were crashing ashore as I drove in about 12 hours ago. I watching now to see how much Sean deepens.

And a Mediterranean storm! This has been one weird season....


There has actually been 14 occasions that there has been a sub-tropical/tropical system(4 hurricane type storms)in the mediterranean.


Mediterranean Cyclones via wikipedia Link

I was actually surprised by the number of similar occurrences, and think that these storms alone could be an interesting research topic.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I don't know where but I read here that there is a new blog or website I don't know where it is and there is where a lot of people has migrated.

New blog?
New site?
imustknow
Quoting Articuno:

New blog?
New site?
imustknow



I would tell you but I don't know where is it. You see. I'm still here.


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 530
PM UNTIL 100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF PINE
BLUFF ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 875...WW 876...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL N-S CONFLUENCE
LINE IN E TX AND WRN/SRN LA. OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT IN SW AR. WITH TIME THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
GENERALLY NEWD. WHILE DIMINISHING LOW LVL CAPE ULTIMATELY WILL
WEAKEN UPDRAFT STRENGTH...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE
INFLOW/SELY SFC WINDS LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN SOME RISK FOR
TORNADOES/LOCALLY DMGG WIND IN E TX/LA.
FARTHER N...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES/MORE LIMITED
MOISTURE MAY BE OFFSET BY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED NE MOVEMENT OF OK UPR TROUGH TO
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/DMGG WIND IN SRN/ERN AR. THIS
THREAT ULTIMATELY MAY EXTEND STILL FARTHER N/NE INTO CNTRL/NERN
AR...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SVR THREAT IN THOSE AREAS ATTM SEEMS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT A WW.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...CORFIDI
I still prefer this site, but I have tried the other. I will e-mail if you ask.

Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I still prefer this site, but I have tried the other. I will e-mail if you ask.



If it's the one I'm thinking of, I was invited by PrivateIdaho about a month ago, but I never did anything with it.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I've been trying to follow along with the Mediterranean system since yesterday, but can someone just clarify it a little bit for me?

As I understand the satellite based... interpretations.. have suggested that the system is "tropical," but have any of the official weather agencies (Berlin, NHC, or other) actually described it as a tropical storm? (I know it's out of NHC jurisdiction, so they probably don't have much to say)



You can see here on NOAA's tropical position page that they had it subtropical when it was an invest & when it tightened into a depression it became tropical. I agree with the change, the convection went to a tight warm core ball then they changed it.

Mediterranean Sea:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/1800 UTC 42.8N 6.5E T3.0/3.0 01M
08/1200 UTC 42.1N 6.2E T2.5/3.0 01M
08/0600 UTC 41.5N 5.8E T3.0/3.0 01M
08/0000 UTC 41.4N 5.4E T3.0/3.0 01M
07/1800 UTC 41.1N 5.3E T2.5/2.5 01M
07/1200 UTC 40.6N 5.9E ST1.5 INVEST

I wonder if this Alaskan superstorm will corespondent to deep troughing in the East. With a tanking AO/NAO, I wouldn't doubt it.
I would stay here no matter what...
Quoting KoritheMan:


If it's the one I'm thinking of, I was invited by PrivateIdaho about a month ago, but I never did anything with it.
Hi Kori, you seeing anything in the near future in the Caribbean in your crystal ball ?
Quoting Articuno:
I would stay here no matter what...


I will never say never !!! LOL

check your mail by the way.
Quoting Articuno:
I would stay here no matter what...


Indeed. Like hell I'm gonna let trolls rain on my parade.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi Kori, you seeing anything in the near future in the Caribbean in your crystal ball ?


Possibly, but the models differ somewhat in regards to timing. Anything brewing should originate in the southwest Caribbean.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Possibly, but the models differ pretty somewhat in regards to timing. Anything brewing should originate in the southwest Caribbean.
I have noticed throughout the day that moisture has been increasing down there. BTW, today is the 3rd anniversary Of Paloma for the Cayman Islands.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Indeed. Like hell I'm gonna let trolls rain on my parade.
Speaking of which, there hasn't been a lot of them for a while.



458
WFUS54 KSHV 090042
TORSHV
LAC013-027-061-119-090130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0094.111109T0042Z-111109T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MINDEN...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 637 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
GIBSLAND...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ARCADIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.



LAT...LON 3284 9282 3262 9254 3244 9316 3263 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 243DEG 29KT 3257 9313

Quoting interstatelover7165:
Speaking of which, there hasn't been a lot of them for a while.


Maybe because people actually wised up and starting ignoring them, like you're supposed to?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have noticed throughout the day that moisture has been increasing down there. BTW, today is the 3rd anniversary Of Paloma for the Cayman Islands.


Ah, so it is.
Radio and television broadcasts will be interrupted at 1 p.m. Wednesday for a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System.

The alert will last about 30 seconds. Though the alert system is decades old and is often tested and used at the local level, it has never been tested on a nationwide scale before now, according to the Federal Communications Commission.
As part of the test, St. Bernard Parish will sound its outdoor emergency siren system at the same time.
The test, being conducted by the FCC, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service, will occur simultaneously in all 50 states and in U.S. territories.
The drill is designed to test a system that would allow the president or other federal officials to commandeer the airwaves in an emergency to warn of immediate danger such as a tsunami or earthquake to a regional or national audience, according to FEMA.
Quoting weatherbro:
I wonder if this Alaskan superstorm will corespondent to deep troughing in the East. With a tanking AO/NAO, I wouldn't doubt it.


Not in the near future, because having the anchoring polar low over Siberia favors troughing in Greenland, not the eastern United States. The ensembles have a quick trough coming through there in a couple days but it's not in a pattern where it will really want to dig in. It's also not yet clear whether the NAO will actually tank. The GFS tends to overdo blocking over Greenland sometimes in these patterns.
Quoting Levi32:


Not in the near future, because having the anchoring polar low over Siberia favors troughing in Greenland, not the eastern United States. The ensembles have a quick trough coming through there in a couple days but it's not in a pattern where it will really want to dig in. It's also not yet clear whether the NAO will actually tank. The GFS tends to overdo blocking over Greenland sometimes in these patterns.

(This post has nothing to do with what has been posted above.)

Levi, every time you say the season is over, we get another storm. Just say that we'll see another Atlantic storm after Sean. :P
Models are beginning to latch on to the idea of low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean as we head into next week...Maybe we'll have yet another tropical cyclone?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Models are beginning to latch on to the idea of low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean as we head into next week...Maybe we'll have yet another tropical cyclone?


Seems like only Rina didn't want to form..took her 3 tries. All the other storms this year though..20% at 2pm usually means a named storm at 5pm!

Although, I would absolutely love to tie 2005 for amount of storms to form in November, however unlikely that is, it would be an awesome way to end an unusual season.
Plotting the coordinates provided in TropicalStormSean's_9Nov_12amGMT_ATCF,
starting 7Nov_12amGMT and ending 9Nov_12amGMT

TS.Sean has traveled 110miles in 48hours at an average speed of ~2.3mph(3.7k/h)
for a total position change of 73miles(~117kilometres)westward

Copy&paste 27.8n68.7w-27.7n68.8w, 27.7n68.8w-27.6n69.0w, 27.6n69.0w-27.5n69.3w, 27.5n69.3w-27.4n69.5w, 27.4n69.5w-27.5n69.4w, 27.5n69.4w-27.6n69.4w, 27.6n69.4w-27.8n69.6w, 27.8n69.6w-27.8n69.9w, 27.8n68.7w-27.8n69.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have noticed throughout the day that moisture has been increasing down there. BTW, today is the 3rd anniversary Of Paloma for the Cayman Islands.
Thanks for the reminder! makes you stop and recall what you were doing. How about the weather this week? We have had the ac shut down, all the windows open at night, just magic now compared to the summer we have had. Kind of odd how quick the winter switch got turned on tho'?
P
Sean TRMM pass. Click for Quicktime. Not as shallow as many Tropical Storms seen this season, especially for the spotty convection.
Quoting superpete:
Thanks for the reminder! makes you stop and recall what you were doing. How about the weather this week? We have had the ac shut down, all the windows open at night, just magic now compared to the summer we have had. Kind of odd how quick the winter switch got turned on tho'?
P
It really has been a relief with the weather cooling down. We have been having a few early morning showers the past few days too.
Today 3 years ago:

Au revoir Rolf. You've been a very incredible storm.
01M is beginning to look like it's had too much land interaction. Interesting is the sister storm over land just east of 01M, how like waves they are supporting each other..

Cayman Brac








Buoy in the Arabian Sea
Quoting Skyepony:
Buoy in the Arabian Sea


glitch or ships nearby... or pirates relaxing on the buoy. most likely
computer models are trying to bring the MJO back

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
108 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

AKZ207>214-090915-
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-LOWER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA-
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG...
NOATAK...KIANA...RED DOG MINE...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK...
BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK.. .
PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR...NOME...
WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...
ELIM...KOYUK...SHAKTOOLIK...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA... BREVIG MISSION...
TELLER...WALES...DIOMEDE...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...
ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...
MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...PITKAS POINT
108 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...

A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST...WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.

ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

AGAIN...THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.
Hey taz
how's it up there in ca
Quoting Articuno:
Hey taz
how's it up there in ca



doing ok
Just been lurking here the last 2 months. Wunderground is still the best one stop for real-time weather and tropical information, but socializing on the blogs over here has become, well, to much work. The other site has a main blog, and is much less hostile and laid bake than doc's blog, and several featured social blogs.

With that said, I respect and enjoy learning from all the bloggers that frequent this blog. My choice is to visit and learn on both blog's. Why choose one or the other?

scooster67

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1007 hPa) located at 42.6N 6.4E, or 112 km southeast of Marseille (France), 205 km west northwest of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 45 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Surface data indicates that the persistent outer band in the NE quadrant of "01M/99L" may have been able to mix down stronger winds than previously anticipated with Porquerolles reporting steady winds of 50 knots and gusts of 80 knots. With more coastal stations showing steady winds only marginally weaker, "01M/99L" may have peaked in intensity this afternoon/evening as a strong tropical-like cyclone (we're not sure if indeed true tropical warm-core characteristica were present during that time with a vertically tilted/sheared core, a more asymmetric wind field and absence of DMC next to the center for a couple of hours). Since then, the convection weakened significantly but a 23:00 UTC ASCAT still indicates winds around 40 kt. Hence, the current intensity rating still exceeds the latest Dvorak classification. Banding structure remains good and pulsating convective re-development next to the center is still possible during the rest of the outlook. Excessive rainfall and severe wind gusts continue to affect the coast of S-France during the following hours although some weakening may occur as a consequence of weakening DMC.

There is no major change regarding path and intensity forecast compared to the 18 UTC update and hence this will be the last regular update. More informations will become available in the next Severe Weather Outlook Day 1.

If any unexpected intensification occurs, another update will be issued. Otherwise, we will now return to the regular outlook style.
Sean will intensify, but it all depends on if he can organize good enough in the next 48 hours before the trough begins to influence him, and upper level winds become less favorable for strengthening.
Quoting Articuno:

New blog?
New site?
imustknow


Are you worthy?
Quoting Unfriendly:


glitch or ships nearby... or pirates relaxing on the buoy. most likely


I was thinking the same thing, though hadn't looked to see what's been shaking.

It was really a distraction on the way to watch The Great Bering Sea Storm bomb..
Quoting Vincent4989:

You're the reason why when i was logged out, TomTaylor's posts were always hidden.
TomTaylor's just kidding to entertain the blog, not troll.
No, I wasn't joking at all. The Mediterranean system was not purely tropical. Satellite derived upper level winds and model analysis of the upper atmosphere both clearly showed that an upper level low was present aloft over the system. An ASCAT pass also revealed the strongest winds were a good distance removed from the center. Water temperatures were a good 10 to 15 (17 according to the buoy Dr. Masters mentioned in the blog) degrees Fahrenheit below the well established standard of 80 degrees. Finally, there was no AMSU pass to confirm whether or not the was warm core aloft, the only thing we have are satellite and model analysis of winds which show an ULL atop of the system. ULLs are just about always associated with anomalously cold air, which would favor the idea of this being cold core aloft.



CIMSS upper level winds showing an ULL over the storm




Yesterday's ASCAT pass showing the radius of maximum winds well removed from the center






While it was listed as tropical on the NESDIS/SSD site, people are forgetting that was by the Dvorak classification...meaning the Dvorak computer algorithm looked at the cloud pattern to determine it's classification. In other words, there wasn't any meteorological forecaster there to look at other factors such as upper level characteristics, SSTs, or wind field characteristics.


There is no doubt the Mediterranean system had many tropical characteristics, but it also had a few key subtropical characteristics according to the NHC's definition so it can not be said that this was a purely tropical storm. While classification of these types of storms can be pretty subjective, and you could really argue it either way, had it been under the NHC's jurisdiction I believe it would have most likely been listed as a subtropical storm due to the factors I mentioned above. Dr. Masters also seems to agree by referring to the storm as a hybrid in the title and mentioning that the NHC probably wouldn't have named it had it been under their jurisdiction.
Am I the only one that cringes a bit when I see tornado chaser videos with the people involved cheering and high-fiving each other while they are looking at a storm causing damage and possibly injuries and death? I know that they are doing this for a living (in many cases), and hauling around adrenaline junkies for a fee, which makes me cringe even more. As a SkyWarn Storm Spotter and ham radio operator, I do the same thing they are doing (chasing a storm) but I'm constantly on the phone and radio, updating the NWS and local EMS about what I'm seeing, the direction of travel, and apparent width. I get paid nothing, nor do I want to get paid, since I consider it a public service. Not saying there shouldn't be "professional" storm chasers, but I do wish they'd hold down the whole college frat atmosphere when they are on video. I'd also hope they have some kind of contact with the NWS to relay to them what they're seeing rather than just trying to get the best video.
Watching this front advance from Louisiana to Alabama is getting me a little nervous. The low was supposed to pull north and take most of the rain and instability with it. However, it's still 64 degrees now (after a high of 81, and the dewpoint is creeping up into the low 50's. We are getting steady WSW winds of 10 mph with gusts to 21, and the air has that tropical smell, if those of you that live in the South understand what I mean. I'm hoping the storms weaken before they get to west-central Alabama, but I'm beginning to have my doubts.
Quoting sar2401:
Watching this front advance from Louisiana to Alabama is getting me a little nervous. The low was supposed to pull north and take most of the rain and instability with it. However, it's still 64 degrees now (after a high of 81, and the dewpoint is creeping up into the low 50's. We are getting steady WSW winds of 10 mph with gusts to 21, and the air has that tropical smell, if those of you that live in the South understand what I mean. I'm hoping the storms weaken before they get to west-central Alabama, but I'm beginning to have my doubts.


lol, I actually want a bit of severe weather. Not tornadoes though.
TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 PM EST TUE NOV 08 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A PRIMARY BAND OF RAGGED CONVECTION
THAT WRAPS MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WHILE THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ARE SEEN IN A SEPARATE BAND
DISPLACED ABOUT 175 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. WHILE SEAN IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MARGINAL
SSTS...THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL...
WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENOUGH CONVECTION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING
AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SEAN PEAKING
IN AROUND 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AND
CLOSE TO THE SPC3 SHIPS ENSEMBLE. AFTER 48 HOURS SEAN WILL MOVE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. SEAN SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A SURFACE
FRONT SHORTLY AFTER TRANSITION...AND IN FACT SOME GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SHOW THAT OCCURRING EARLIER THAN INDICATED HERE.

SEAN HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/03. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS. SEAN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY
48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT THE NHC FORECAST HAS ONLY
BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND
STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON SEVERAL PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATIONS ABOVE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT NOAA BUOY 41048.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.9N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 28.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 28.6N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 29.5N 70.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 36.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Really nothing explosive or durastic occurig with Sean, no real reason to stick around.
Night everyone...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Maybe because people actually wised up and starting ignoring them, like you're supposed to?


Dang, accidentally minus-ed you. I hope you're right. +1
260. MTWX
Quoting sar2401:
Am I the only one that cringes a bit when I see tornado chaser videos with the people involved cheering and high-fiving each other while they are looking at a storm causing damage and possibly injuries and death? I know that they are doing this for a living (in many cases), and hauling around adrenaline junkies for a fee, which makes me cringe even more. As a SkyWarn Storm Spotter and ham radio operator, I do the same thing they are doing (chasing a storm) but I'm constantly on the phone and radio, updating the NWS and local EMS about what I'm seeing, the direction of travel, and apparent width. I get paid nothing, nor do I want to get paid, since I consider it a public service. Not saying there shouldn't be "professional" storm chasers, but I do wish they'd hold down the whole college frat atmosphere when they are on video. I'd also hope they have some kind of contact with the NWS to relay to them what they're seeing rather than just trying to get the best video.

Your not the only one. I'm in the same boat as you.

Quoting sar2401:
Watching this front advance from Louisiana to Alabama is getting me a little nervous. The low was supposed to pull north and take most of the rain and instability with it. However, it's still 64 degrees now (after a high of 81, and the dewpoint is creeping up into the low 50's. We are getting steady WSW winds of 10 mph with gusts to 21, and the air has that tropical smell, if those of you that live in the South understand what I mean. I'm hoping the storms weaken before they get to west-central Alabama, but I'm beginning to have my doubts.

I am too. As the system approches the MS River it appears to actually be strengthening. Unless this is the last hurrah... SPC is still standing by their prediction that this thing will collapse upon itself over the next couple of hours, but I'm not too sure! Dew Point here is currently 55 degrees...
The low in the Mediterranean looks like an occluded low to me.
262. MTWX
SPC possibly extending Tornado watch into Mississippi???

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH NERN LA AND SERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 877...

VALID 090321Z - 090445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 877 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LA PORTION OF WW 877. STORMS IN NERN LA INCLUDING
OUACHITA PARISH WILL APPROACH THE EDGE OF THE WW BY 04Z...AND NE LA
PORTION OF THE WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER EAST AS NECESSARY.


BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN LA INTO SRN AR IS MOVING EAST AT
25-35 KT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LA
WHERE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SRN
AR WHERE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS FARTHER SOUTH DESPITE
LARGER HODOGRAPHS ALONG NWD MIGRATING LLJ. STORMS IN NERN LA ARE
MOVING EAST AT 35 KT AND WILL APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 877 BY 04Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY
CONTINUE EAST OF PRIMARY MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT
STORMS COULD POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES EAST OF CURRENT WW
.
263. MTWX
Some current dewpoints on MS side:
Greenville- 64
Hattiesburg- 61
Biloxi- 66
Jackson- 65
McComb- 65
Natchez- 67

Definitely still plenty of energy out there!
Since the previous mapping for 8Nov_6amGMT :
27.0n69.6w, 27.6n69.4w, 27.8n69.5w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Sean's_12amGMT_ATCF
27.5n69.4w, 27.6n69.4w, 27.8n69.6w,27.8n69.9w are now the most recent positions
Starting 8Nov_12amGMT and ending 9Nov_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormSean's path,
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Sean's travel-speed was 3mph(4.8k/h) on a heading of 270.1degrees(W)
TS.Sean was headed toward passage over HutchinsonIsland,Florida ~8days16hours from now

Copy&paste kxfl, ggt, 27.4n69.5w-27.5n69.4w, 27.5n69.4w-27.6n69.4w, 27.6n69.4w-27.8n69.6w, 27.8n69.6w-27.8n69.9w, 27.8n69.6w-27.4n80.264w, fpr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

And for a closer look at Sean's path over the past 48hours
265. j2008
Quoting Skyepony:
01M is beginning to look like it's had too much land interaction. Interesting is the sister storm over land just east of 01M, how like waves they are supporting each other..

Anyone have info on if 1M made landfall, sure looks like it has.
Sean is looking pretty good.

Another thing looking good is Jupiter and the moon close together tonight. The moon is closing in on Jupiter about 1/2 degree per hour.
267. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Sean is looking pretty good.

Another thing looking good is Jupiter and the moon close together tonight. The moon is closing in on Jupiter about 1/2 degree per hour.

Too cloudy here. :(
Quoting MTWX:

Too cloudy here. :(


That's too bad! Looks really cool now and aligning better.
Quoting MTWX:
Some current dewpoints on MS side:
Greenville- 64
Hattiesburg- 61
Biloxi- 66
Jackson- 65
McComb- 65
Natchez- 67

Definitely still plenty of energy out there!


Yeah, not quite as high here outside Montgomery but still too high for a line of storms that's supposed to be falling apart as it approaches. It seems like squall lines fading out as soon as they hit the Alabama state line happens quite a bit, so I'm hoping it will this time as well. Still if you draw a line straight from the center of those storms to Montgomery, it's a straight shot. I guess we'll see early tomorrow what happens.
Quoting j2008:

Anyone have info on if 1M made landfall, sure looks like it has.
yeah it did, but it pretty much fell apart

Aspectre, your maps are always kind of interesting, but the one on Sean is a real laugher. Hitting the coast of Florida in eight days? :) Still, I guess it shows how straight line projections can produce some pretty weird results.
272. j2008
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah it did, but it pretty much fell apart


Most storms do when they make landfall, at least it wasnt as pathetic as Don. At least 1M had a good exciteing life that most STS turned TS dont get.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That's too bad! Looks really cool now and aligning better.


Have a good view of it here in Alabama too. The sky seems unusually clear tonight and both the Moon and Jupiter look brighter than normal.
Quoting sar2401:


Have a good view of it here in Alabama too. The sky seems unusually clear tonight and both the Moon and Jupiter look brighter than normal.


Jupiter is brighter than normal being near perihelion. Last fall Jupiter was the brightest since 1963 and Jupiter's brightness peaked at 0.4% less bright than last year on October 28th. Jupiter is still brighter now than it will be until 2021.
sar2401, aspectre's straight line extrapolations are useful as they show where the right side of the storm's current heading is. To the right of the extrapolated line (to the north in this case) Sean's windfield is directing its swells. That area is currently under a high surf advisory because of how Sean's swells are being directed by its current motion. Not the motion that Sean will make as he turns.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Jupiter is brighter than normal being near perihelion. Last fall Jupiter was the brightest since 1963 and Jupiter's brightness peaked at 0.4% less bright than last year on October 28th. Jupiter is still brighter now than it will be until 2021.


I almost snapped my neck looking at it. It is straight up. Thanks, Brian.
277. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Jupiter is brighter than normal being near perihelion. Last fall Jupiter was the brightest since 1963 and Jupiter's brightness peaked at 0.4% less bright than last year on October 28th. Jupiter is still brighter now than it will be until 2021.

Don't have my good camera with me, but managed to snap this one with my phone as the clouds parted..
Welcome Grothar. Glad you liked! And thanks for dropping by my blog. You're always welcome. Hope you are feeling better.
MTWX glad you got a good look! Nice picture!
280. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
MTWX glad you got a good look! Nice picture!

Thank You! Wish I would have known they would be that close tonight, I would have brought my camera to work with me!
Quoting Grothar:


I almost snapped my neck looking at it. It is straight up. Thanks, Brian.

Strange, it's overhead here too!

:):))
MTWX Sky and Telescope updates their "This week's Sky at a Glance" page every Friday. Check it out! It covers all the basics for skywatchers.


The planet roundup is at the bottom of the page.
Quoting pottery:

Strange, it's overhead here too!

:):))


I didn't know you could bend you neck that far back at your age, pott.
Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know you could bend you neck that far back at your age, pott.

I only noticed it because I fell over....
Maybe pottery's laying back on a lawn chair Grothar. Or better yet a hammock :)
Quoting pottery:

I only noticed it because I fell over....


See how you are!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Maybe he's laying back on a lawn chair Grothar. Or better yet a hammock :)

Yeah! That's it.
Thanks!

Actually, it's a real pretty night.
Very bright outside.
From the BBC...

Relief efforts in Pakistan to assist 5 million people affected by recent flooding are being hampered by lack of funds.

I think we will hear this more and more, as Countries have to deal with billion-dollar weather events fast and furious.
289. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
MTWX Sky and Telescope updates their "This week's Sky at a Glance" page every Friday. Check it out! It covers all the basics for skywatchers.


The planet roundup is at the bottom of the page.

Thanks for the link!
Quoting MTWX:

Thanks for the link!


Welcome. Hope you enjoy it!

Over and out for the night.
291. MTWX
Signing off here too. Looks like the storms along the front are finally starting to weaken. Hopefully nothing but rain tonight. Good Night all!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011


AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH NERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 877...

VALID 090518Z - 090615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 877 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO WILL PERSIST NEXT
HOUR OR TWO FROM SRN THROUGH NERN LA AND EXTREME SWRN MS. OVERALL
THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.

LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM S-CNTRL THROUGH NERN
LA. A FEW OF THE STORMS STILL HAVE UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AND DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LLJ ARE LIFTING NORTH
OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THESE LIMITING FACTORS SUGGEST
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND 07Z...AND ANOTHER
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2011


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32979146 32809111 31699124 29839209 29659267 30049305
31719221 32979146
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
MTWX Sky and Telescope updates their "This week's Sky at a Glance" page every Friday. Check it out! It covers all the basics for skywatchers.


The planet roundup is at the bottom of the page.
Might want to check out the "austronomy" feature under the "Travel and Acitivities" file tab above right.
Quoting j2008:

Anyone have info on if 1M made landfall, sure looks like it has.

In case anyone was still doubting it was subtropical, the fact that it weakened rapidly over land proves it. I have a feeling if that storm to its east was over water, it would also transition! Maybe Mediterranean storms are only so rare because there's so little water to work with?

There was a similar system over lake huron once. "hurricane huron". If i recall it just happened to stall over the small lake, then weakened rapidly upon landfall.
Sean deepened 2 mb in the past 3 hours. And Sean is heading DUE WEST!

Sorry. Had to do it.
Due west?

Giggle. snort.
Anyone interested in the Bering Sea Alaska Blizzacane(TM - my word) is welcome to visit my wunderblog, Alaska Super Storm aka To Nome: Love, bf to learn about the remote areas being hit or to post about the storm.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
8:30 AM IST November 9 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB03-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved north-northwestwards and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 15.0N 58.5E, or about 1800 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 550 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 500 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then westwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 48 hrs and weaken gradually due to colder sea and interaction with land surface.

Satellite imagery indicates vortex over west central Arabian Sea near 15.0N 58.7E. Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over west Arabian sea between 12.0N to 21.5N and 56.0E to 61.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -78C. The convection has shown signs of disorganization during past 12 hours. The convection is sheared to north northeastward under the influence of the trough in westerlies at 200 HPA level.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over Phase 6 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 7. the phase 6 and 7 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 26-28C. The ocean heat content is less (<40kj/cm2) and not favorable for intensification. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have not changed significantly in past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is moderate to high. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. Tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N. The convection due to the system shows sheared to the north northeast under the influence of the upper tropospheric westerly trough which roughly runs from 55.0N 70.0E to 17.0N 40.0E at 200 HPA. The convection also shows signs of disorganization during past 12 hours. Most of the models show intensification during next 12 hours then gradual weakening of the system thereafter.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

9 HRS: 16.0N 58.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 16.5N 57.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
45 HRS: 16.5N 55.5E - Low Pressure Area


Buoy 46070 in the Bering Sea.
While the power's on, here's the downtown Nome webcam (it's on Front Street; the view is to the west-northwest up the coast). Yesterday it was overcast and relatively calm. Now this (may be intermittently interrupted):

Nome
Future for Rolf after landfall in France? Just wondering if we feel its effects in Berlin.
Quoting Neapolitan:
While the power's on, here's the downtown Nome webcam (it's on Front Street; the view is to the west-northwest up the coast). Yesterday it was overcast and relatively calm. Now this (may be intermittently interrupted):

Nome

I thought it'd go out, but so far, it's been on all night.

Front Street in Nome pretty much runs east and west. You're looking west. The Bering Sea/Norton Sound lies behind the buildings to your left.
Quoting largeeyes:
Future for Rolf after landfall in France? Just wondering if we feel its effects in Berlin.


You know, I knew a guy named Rolf once. He wasn't French. He was German. Based on that, I'd say you will.
:)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


You know, I knew a guy named Rolf once. He wasn't French. He was German. Based on that, I'd say you will.
:)


Well, I know a guy named Rolf too. Berlin can only take one.
LOL. I have no idea where Rolf is this morning. Been watching Blizzacane (TM - mine).

Quoting largeeyes:
Future for Rolf after landfall in France? Just wondering if we feel its effects in Berlin.


Probably not.
superstorm is on the wrong side of the aluethians islands to send oahu any substantial surf there are supposingly some great surf spots in italy it does not happen very often
Quoting islander101010:
superstorm is on the wrong side of the aluethians islands to send oahu any substantial surf


Kids in Nome had some surfing fun yesterday before the storm came in.
:)


image credit: Anchorage Daily News

Photo slideshow from Nome
Nice week coming up for West Palm Beach area...

Looking very warm next week in FL! The exact opposite of last year which we were already in the 30's at night around mid November. Low to mid 80's all week long for C & S FL.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looking very warm next week in FL! The exact opposite of last year which we were already in the 30's at night around mid November. Low to mid 80's all week long for C & S FL.

Why were you trolling on Monday?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nice week coming up for West Palm Beach area...



This is why all the snow birds come down to Fl. for the winter.
Weather's been beautiful lately.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Why were you trolling on Monday?


?? What are you talking about? I only posted info of tornado warnings and radar pics. I think you might have me confused with someone else on here. I've never trolled since I created my account. I think you maybe the troll and this is my last response to this on here as you will go on ignore.
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Ok fine. I agree. On this blog - Doc Masters - you have been fine and posted stuff only relevant to weather. But why the continuous badgering in aqua's blog? Why man?


I've never been on aqua's blog!
This is interesting as some of the models do predict developement in the Caribbean later next week.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is interesting as some of the models do predict developement in the Caribbean later next week.


We been seeing models predicting cyclogenesis all year round and nothing has come to fruition. IOW, this hardly means anything. The GFS and GFDL has been the main culprits.
Quoting StormTracker2K:

Too little too late. If I would have seen this pattern with the MJO in July, I'd have every reason to be concerned. The beginning of November, hardly. TCHP is rapidly waning and shear and upper-level conditions will make it virtually impossible to anything to develop remotely in the Tropical Atlantic Basin.
Nome,AK WebCam

This is one very deep low!

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
313 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-100315-
313 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A VERY STRONG STORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THIS EVENING. THIS LOW HAS CURRENTLY BECOME A
945 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...THEN MOVE NORTH
OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA BY WED MORNING AS A 952 MB LOW.

$$

PKZ200-100315-
NORTON SOUND-
313 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...


.TODAY...S WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.THU...SW WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.

.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

Dutch Harbor

is this big Alaska storm going to pump a lot of warm air into the arctic?
Quoting Minnemike:
is this big Alaska storm going to pump a lot of warm air into the arctic?




NO