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Sea life's importance to the climate

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on May 29, 2007

Does the marine biosphere mix the ocean? A group of oceanographers led by W.K. Dewar of Florida State University argue that the swimming action of fish and other marine organisms may play a critical role in driving ocean currents. If true, large-scale over-fishing or the collapse of the marine food chain due to pollution or ocean acidification may cause significant changes in ocean currents--and Earth's climate.


Figure 1. Rainbow made From a sperm whale using his blowhole. Image taken June 17, 2006 in Kaikora, New Zealand by wunderphotographer jhfelder.

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) or Thermohaline Circulation is a well-known feature of the ocean circulation. In the Atlantic, the Gulf Stream current forms a portion of the MOC. Gulf Stream waters flow to the region near Greenland, where an input of fresh, denser water from melting ice and river run-off creates a downward flow of water that then moves southward along the ocean bottom towards the Equator. This deep water eventually returns to the surface in the mid-Atlantic to complete a cell of the MOC. Scientists have long thought that the energy needed to drive the MOC came from winds and tides--about two terrawatts of energy (Munk and Wunsch, 1998). However, Dewar et al. show that the mechanical energy added to the ocean by the swimming action of whales is about 1% of this total, and the swimming action of other marine organisms (primarily zooplankton) adds up to 50% of this total--one terrawatt of energy. While the authors admit that their calculations may have large errors, this research shows that marine life may have a heretofore unappreciated large impact on Earth's climate. Our climate is intimately connected to the sun, life on land, life in the ocean, and human activities in an incredibly complex web of interconnections. It is our challenge to understand this system, even as we change it and it changes of its own accord.

My next blog will be Thursday afternoon, when the new Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach Atlantic hurricane season forecast will be released.

Jeff Masters

Dewar, W.K., R.J. Bingham, R.L. Iverson, D.P. Nowacek, L.C. St. Laurent, and P.H. Wiebe, 2006, "Does the marine biosphere mix the ocean?", Journal of Marine Research, 64, 541-561.

Munk, W., and C. Wunsch, 1998, "Abyssal recipes II: Energetics of tidal and wind mixing", Deep-Sea Res., 45, 1976-2009.

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Posted by Taz:
Ground Deformation Summary: Through April 2007, continuous GPS data show that most of the Yellowstone caldera continued moving upward at similar to slightly lower rates as the past year. The maximum measured ground uplift over the past 32 months is ~15 cm at the White Lake GPS station. An example can be found at: http://www.mines.utah.edu/~ggcmpsem/UUSATRG/GPS/Site_Info/pboscat_lkwy.gif


The general uplift of the Yellowstone caldera is scientifically interesting and will continue to be monitored closely by YVO staff.



That is very interesting. This could mean that the Yellowstone Super-Volcano is getting ready to erupt again. Id bet all the money I have that this is what killed off the dinosaurs and left the oceanic creatures.
MichaelSTL did and my post was in reply to his
But hey guys lets not make a meal out of this.
I hope the model is right. I just don't see any indication of it right now LOL
Sorry Kman! I was confused, I though you were responding to my post since you reposted it!
TCW

No problem. I referred to your post because you picked up on mine ! lol

The unsettled weather in the NW Caribbean could certainly produce a low but so far I have not seen anything to tell me that has happened
Key West, Fl --->>> Radar --->>> Link
1007. RL3AO
Um...radar down for maintence. Why did you post the link?
From the 8:05 discussion

The surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will
also continue to produce convection.


Maybe if it slides out over the water something will spin up
Pretty close on the CMC STL! If I were to pick a center, it would be just south and west, still over land!
Its still possible we can get some type of low pressure system moving out of the nw caribbean in the next 2 days.It wil be interesting to see what takes place during the next 24-48hrs.

Low over Mexico traversing into the area and the area in the Caribb seem to be Limiting Barbera in the Pacific!
In Michael's 1:45 post the system seems to originate east of Nicaragua. Am I reading the graphic right ?
'cause it worked when I posted it ! The rain is moving this way my friend !
"A" was yesterday Kman and "C" is Current!
TCW
Oh ok thanks.
Yes Kman Your correct!
ok - sculpting class in my garage in 10 minutes. Or...hey - sailing class *unauthorized" at the lake in the morn..you pick. Or perhaps an argument over GLOBAL WARMING (or god, she didn't say it...)
Here is a closeup of the storm track, as analysed and forecast by the CMC:

You don't suppose the remnants of the 1008 mb low that was hanging around the SW Caribbean came ashore in Nicaragua and is now poised to move back over water LOL
The High Pressure still off the east coast still plays a big role in this game! It seems that the CMC is keeping the High Pressure rather stronger than most!
Most of the reporting stations in Honduras have pressures of 1008/9 mb except those nearer the Pacific coast. Maybe something is lurking onshore !
Well I'm out of here for tonight. Lets see what tomorrow brings. Hope you all get some rain up there soon
1024. IKE
Latest NAM 00Z model run has a 1004mb low making landfall in my area Sunday...Ft. Walton Beach/Destin...Crestview/Defuniak Springs areas....Florida panhandle....Link
Thunderstorm activity has been rather persistent in the NW caribbean and actually has increased tonight,lets see what takes place over night.
Quikscat shows no closed low.
Just stopped by for a minute & Whoa! 1025 posts!
So I don't have to read them all, can someone sum it up for me in 25 words or less? LOL
Do swimming fish help cause the ocean to circulate?
(Swim together, Nemo). Maybe some very small but still measurable amount. Where a delacate balance exists, those small effects can add up.
Quikscat shows no closed low.

That's pretty good, but how did you know what I was going to ask?
Watch..everyone is gonna freak out tomorrow about the convection in the Bay of Campeche...not saying anthing will happen, but just watch. This trough has been moving west all day, shear has been 40knts+ lets wait and see what happens tomorrow. The GFS is flawed right now and I don't think the other models can grab things this early, too many variables.
Seems to be pegging Barbara's Track!
Cane,
the only way you can view it, is when they plug it in on an invest...unless you know of another link.

Still, if you look at what else is going on in the back ground when you run it...it seems to be hitting the nail onthe head
1033. MZT
That CMC forecast sure looks like Alberto's. Can they pull it off again?
That is why I posted it Cajunkid! Sometimes if you look at cyclogenisis models focused on other areas you can see the general Idea of a big mess!
One of the benifits of a storm in the Epac forming so close to the Mexican Coast! Bonus Model!
word!
nm
Different models are good for different things! You have to realize which models are performing the best in different situations. One may do well for dynamics this week but, next week does poorly! Models are not a crutch, they are a very small piece of a very large puzzle!
Michael- Do you have a link to that particular model run? Thanks.





Forum Giant-Register Free
1040. Alec
In other words, it's written in sand....NOT stone!LOL
Does anyone know how Close (In Miles) Panama City is to Mobile?
1042. Jedkins
wow the GFS is really going off the deep end this evining, showing a track much different then other models and has had little consistency.

Good thing its not very trusting because the GDS latest run would be terrible bring rain to only south Florida.
1043. Jedkins
thankfully though we can probably throw the GFS in trash for now lol
GFDL is backing the GFS right now! If you look at the run for Barbara!
1045. RL3AO
Reading these comments still gives me chills. Scroll down to around 10 pm ET and keep reading.

Why did I post this? I was bored.

Dr. Masters blog, 10/18/05
Sorry, its kinda about the weather..I can't resist
BEST solution in my book!. Satalite presentation, eyy, the trough in the CATL, still there! Nothing more but soaking rain for most of Florida! GFS needs a boost! Been doing poor with cyclogenisis but, rather well with the dynamics! IMO Dynamics is all we will see out of this storm!
Hello everyone, Hope your having a nice night!

I have been gone for 18 hours today. I am very tired, but would like to know what rain chances we have in FL. for the next few days. Can someone please tell me? THANKS!!
Anyone know what the dealio is with storm2k website??? It has been down for 3 days now.
Terrible and rain..in the same sentence? Nope sorry, it is welcomed.
yeap lots of rain for south fla should the little blob hold together the jet stream will push towards the pinisular we can use it .
ULL Diving down in the GOMEX should keep the significant moisture to the Central and South East! All should see some moisture this weekend though!
1053. cjnew
HurricaneFCast

my best guess for PC to Mobile is a little under 200miles

Hey IKE! that CMC doesn't seem all that bad to me. bring on the rain lol :D
looks like the little blob below 20 n.is trying to fire up again do i see puples now at this hour .
Hello all. It looks like a good amount of rain for So. Flo. Let's hope points north of the lake get a good amount as well. I don't see it doing anything more than a good soaking. The winds we've had the last week are probably more than what we will get out of this system. I'm thinking this is going to be like 1947 with the Miami area getting two storms. A '1' early in the season and a '3' in October. Wild ass guess though (wag)
what kind of threat do you all think louisiana is in this hurricane season
It all depends on how strong the high pressure ridge is and where the ITCZ is latter in the season. Right now, I would be looking at dying fronts getting into the gulf and spinning off a low. If, in late August, Sept, Oct the bermuda high is unbroken and very strong you will see most of the storms going under hispaniola and cuba and either into the yucatan of up into the gulf where it becomes land locked and has to hit somewhere. If the high is unbroken but of moderate intensity you may see more storms heading above Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and perhaps becoming a threat to the Bahamas, South Florida and if it crosses like Andrew, the gulf again. I don't think this is the year for the Carolinas. They've had theirs in recent history and I think Florida and the Gulf will be under threat again.
ok thanks
I just re-watched 'As It Happened:Hurricane Andrew' to sort of prepare myself for the season. I returned home from Korea 1 month after the storm hit for all the fun clean up. My parents house was virtually destroyed and it took us about three years to get whole again. Every time I see the video, I think of the experience of cleaning up and shyster contractors which was almost the worst part of the storm. My friends have all kinds of tales they went through in Country Walk and East Perrine. I can only imagine the sights and sounds while I got drunk off of a bottle of whisky in my barracks at Camp Humphreys. Amazingly, I was able to get through by phone two days latter to a friend in Homestead who had underground phone lines. In a most surreal way, while I was reading the Money section of USA Today, I came across an article about non-monetary losses like pictures, medals etc and lo and behold who is in the story but my friends dad talking of his model ships that he took months to build. I was going through a bit of shock watching the footage on tv and knowing I was going home to that a month later, so this was really a boost to my morale. Sorry for the long winded post.
wow that sounds like a scary situation
My friend told me that water was actually seeping through the window because the pressure was so low. I don't know if this is even possible, but it sounds wild. My other friend said his ears were popping all night and that the high pitched whirrrr was something else. I had friends at a place called country walk. They had to evacuate inland from Homestead and went to a house that was worse off because it was made of fiber board and they didn't know it. The second floor was ripped off the building. At my parents house, all my guitar and stereo equipment as well as hundreds of LP's were ruined. All my porno's were scattered in front of my neighbors door;) You'd be amazed at tyhe odd things one sees after a storm. I mean a whole room can be wrecked and a half empty coke can still be standing on the counter. I saw pine trees blown down one way and then wrapped around another tree when the wind shifted. My sisters window frame ceiling fan and mattresses were sucked out of her room and thrown ove the house but I only lost one small triangle window on my Datsun B210 that I left at home. I saw areas where clearly microbursts of over 200 mph just flattened whole buildings in Naranja and Cutler Ridge. The graffiti wall on the water front near the Old Burger King building had the highest storm surge at 16.9 feet. The wall was 7 feet under water. It's only a matter of time that a major storm runs a good length of the East Coast of Florida and takes out the cities of Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.
Storms have gone the opposite direction into the Pacific from the Atlantic, so I don't see why not.
when is the down time for the satellites?
It seems like it could happen - I just cant remember it doing so for the life of me.

sat down time is usually around now. Its different though.

Some storm is showing up on Cancun radar nothing on Cuba yet

OH YES! Action at the Buoy I call it Diurnal cycle interrupted.



Station 42056 - Yucatan Basin

Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )

Not much but it should be going UP now.

OH WOW IT JUST REALLY DROPPED!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I wish I could post during the day time, but my work computer is monitored. It's lonely in here this early in the morning.
It's about three hour down time right. So that would make it around 6am for the next image.
Look at that convection on the IR!!!

Its better now - at night to watch these things. The sat is still refreshing.

This thing is going to be instant tropical depression. I thing the main center of rotation is actually under the main area of convection just to the south of the coldest top. On the WV there is a lot of spinning under this.

Wow I didnt realize the Cayman islands were so close to Cuba.
1070. 0741
i hope our friend down in cayman islands ok those storm near him
Wow, people!!! Hey Ya'll. I think I'm gonna hop on my new klr650 and head down to the Keys for sunrise. I'll probably have to dodge a shower or two but the ride should be cool (First time down there on the bike many times by car).
1072. 0741
why you going to keys bluehaze27?
Just for the hell of it. I live In Homestead and I figure there isn't much traffic on the road right now, so maybe I can get down to Key West by 6:30am just in time for sunrise.
Just checked the radar and it looks like Key West might get some rain early this morning so maybe I'll just head down to Marathon.
here comes some Florida rain for sure. Maybe even a storm if it stays out of the Gulf and off of land long enough, more than likely won't be though
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 100 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.1 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.9 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 85.5 F
WOW - Look at that GREEN! We should get a buoy update soon too.
when is the next update?
it just came out of nowhere. MSTL posted a cyclone projection and it popped up right at the initial position.

Yea scroll down its predicted to go into the big bend area.
thing just blew up in the past 2.5-3 hours, storm watchin at night is way better
you think it will stay south long enough to develop into a storm? it appears to be heading toward Cuba right now, maybe even going south of Florida.
as long as it stays in the Caribbean it has a shot
hey guys...just woke up to take a night time peak and WOW. The sheer seems pretty high still to the north, but this is looking impressive tonight. I wonder what the latest model runs look like.....
the Caribbean invest is putting Barbara to shame as far as convection intensity

quite possibly already at TD strength
if there is more green when this thing updates in 2 minutes id be willing to bet its a TD
The sat is in its downtime I think. I meant the buoy. Usually its like an hour right? I should look it up. There is a good surface low there for sure something lacking in our previous blobs.
yeah it didnt update to 7:45 UTC so somethings up. there is a lot of circulation.
Buoy as of 750 GMT

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 91 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.6 F
I still think the sheer will be too high if this blob tries to go to far north......the cmc still thinks that is what the path will be.
pressure is dropping pretty significantly, but yeah if it goes north its done
2kt increase from the last buoy update in wind speed & gust, a .02 decrease in pressure
yeah the pressure is falling.....it is starting to strengthen.....wonder if there is any closed circulation?
I can not believe I am still up.....this is what 4:30am feels like...lol
yeah I think there is some CC, it looks like from the long loop that it just got over the water and started spinning
Look at the graph and the gust speed.
lol welcome to the life of insomniacs
lol talk about rapid intensification, thats a pretty cool graph
which direction do you think it is moving? looks ene but that might be deceptive
I think it has a chance to get to TS status before it hits land
yeah I think ENE is right from what I can tell, this might only hit Cuba and the islands. Its hard to tell though, this pretty much popped out of nowhere.

I dont think its found its center yet. Zoom into the water vapors last five images and rock it at mid speed. .but that main blob has almost a spiral shape embedded in it.
still looks like it will be a rainmaker for at least south Florida. it could make ts status...but should remain pretty weak.
from that vater vapor it looks like it might just be just west of the major convection, but yeah it looks like it still is trying to find the center. I think it is very close to doing so though.
yeah, if this thing was a couple hundred miles south we could be seeing a big one.
good call jflorida. The rock feature on the water vapor is cool....
It will drive you crazy but for some reason its easier to see rotation and where its centered.
Wow its even bigger. Its getting blown but it does look almost spiral under the main convective area.

No thats shear look at the clouds around it.

Look at the big WV its really not moving at all.


The low center looks to be just SW and possibly outside the main convection just to the left of the smaller one. which makes sense.
be back later
Looking more impressive by the hour, lots of rain and a bit windy here in Grand Cayman, pressure is down to 1007 mb in some areas.
good morning

kind of early but the rain woke me up
Very impressive blow up to our wsw
Pressure on my weather station is 1009.7 and steady.Winds calm now out of the ene@4
Could get real interesting today.
Motion looks to be to the E or ESE
gotta grab some more shut eye
only 4:20 here
will post update on local conditions in 3 hrs or so
kind of worrysome to see the Atlantic get so active this early
kind of worrysome to see the Atlantic get so active this early
Pressure continues to fall at Buoy 42056 and winds are increasing out of the SE. Is this the beginning of something or just a temporary blow up. This blob has to hang around throughout the day to really get my attention. Can't wait for the visable loop so we can see what is really going on.
the south Caribbean doesn't look like its done yet either

pressure is still dropping but winds have decreased at the 42056 buoy in the last few hours
until it goes north of Cuba its going to be in favorable shear, ssts and moist air so we'll see how long it stays south
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 93 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.8 F
05 30 1650 ENE 17.5 19.4 3.3 5 4.7 ENE 29.90 +0.01 79.9 84.0 77.0 - - -
05 30 1550 NE 13.6 15.5 3.0 6 4.8 E 29.90 +0.02 80.2 83.8 75.9 - - -
05 30 1450 ENE 11.7 13.6 3.0 7 4.7 E 29.90 +0.04 80.4 83.8 76.8 - - -
05 30 1350 NE 1.9 3.9 3.3 5 4.8 E 29.88 +0.04 79.0 83.7 75.6 - - -
05 30 1250 SSE 9.7 19.4 3.3 5 4.7 ENE 29.88 +0.04 76.6 83.8 73.6 - - -
05 30 1150 ESE 7.8 9.7 3.6 7 4.9 E 29.85 +0.02 82.4 83.8 76.5 - - -
05 30 1050 ESE 11.7 13.6 3.9 7 5.0 E 29.84 +0.00 82.2 83.8 76.6 - - -
05 30 0950 ESE 11.7 13.6 4.3 7 5.0 E 29.84 +0.00 81.9 83.8 75.9 - - -
05 30 0850 ESE 9.7 13.6 4.6 7 5.0 ENE 29.83 -0.04 81.0 84.0 77.2
Morning all

I see that there is a nice blob of convection where this low should be developing. Wonder if we will get the L on the surface map today? You can find a large detailed surface map from here.

The CMC has been locked on to the same track for quite a while now and it looks like the GFS has shifted a little N with this feature.

Got to get to work. Y'all have a great day.
1125. IKE
Pressures are falling off at buoy 42056 at the Yucatan basin...down to 29.76 and falling. Winds SE...gusting to 25.3 knots. Low pressure around?
why is NOAA calling it an invest? for kicks?
it has dropped .13 inches in 16 hours, thats pretty decent
1128. IKE
06 UTC NAM has a 1004 mb low making landfall in the Florida panhandle by Sunday...rains throughout Florida! Link>>>Link
1129. IKE
06 UTC GFS has the low crossing SE Florida...big difference..Link
1130. IKE
Latest CMC has it crossing north Florida. UKMET...southern Florida.
I'm gonna take the average of the models and say Central Florida.
1132. IKE
Agree that it's a crap shoot. Big differences. Watch us up here in the panhandle get nothing from it. Time will tell.
The vis is up & it has an L. Please, no one say "pinhole eye". Yet.
GOM VIS
N Fl, S FL, Straits, They're all right, when its sheared apart, little pieces will be scattered all over the ocean at different altitudes.
The 00z GFS was forecasting tropical storm force wind gusts in South Florida with the system.Good morning guys,BB in a few hours.
1138. IKE
The low itself must be predicted to form around the Yucatan peninsula..maybe off of the north coast?
Good morning StormW, weatherboykris.
1140. IKE
As soon as the sun comes up it might be easier to tell. Do see a spin north of the Yucatan...just off of the coastline.
1142. Patrap
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean Link
1143. Patrap
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico Link
1145. IKE
Thanks for the info StormW...I see what you're saying....should be easier to see soon on a visible.

1146. IKE
Here's a portion of the 8:05 am EDT tropical weather discussion concerning the new Caribbean low....


"The Caribbean Sea...
all the numerous strong showers and thunderstorms in the eastern
Pacific Ocean...from 10n to 15n between Central America and
94w...are not related to Tropical Storm Barbara. This rain in
the eastern Pacific Ocean is related to a middle to upper level
cyclonic circulation center over interior sections of Central
America. A 1006 mb surface low pressure center developed at
31/0900 UTC near 19n87w near the Banco chinchorro...just east
of the Yucatan Peninsula. A trough GOES from the low center
to El Salvador near 13n88w. Numerous strong showers and
thunderstorms are from 16n to 21n between 80w and 86w."
1147. Patrap
One inhibiting factor is the ULL now near the La. coastal area.
1148. IKE
I see that ULL...wonder where it's suppose to go?
1150. Patrap
Not far...its the ULL that will keep the low in check as it slides nne in time.
1151. Patrap
The 60 hour GOM wind model..wave,SSts,current too....Link
Good morning everybody...would a recon fly in or would it be unnessercy
1153. IKE
That 60 hour wind model keeps the strongest winds heading toward north Florida...interesting. I assume the ULL is leading to the shear in the gulf.
1154. Patrap
Atlantic Basin WV loop...Link
1155. Patrap
Its the sw flow around that ULL that will guide the LOW/storm to Fla for some much needed rain.
good morning again

Continuous rain here now but not very heavy. pressure is 1010.9 and steady with winds out of the SSE @10

1158. Patrap
NOLA NWS this am....Link
1160. Patrap
Morn Kman..tropical air mass in place
Big high building overhead the system now but currently centered just S of it. Really pouring here now and very dark out.Completely socked in

Link
Hi Pat

Well, just yesterday we were all saying watch the NW Caribbean for any possible action and here we go
1163. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 6:51 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
Its the sw flow around that ULL that will guide the LOW/storm to Fla for some much needed rain.


Good!
Good morning,

We now have real evidence of a surface low developing which is at 1006mb in the NW caribbean and overall look for invest by NRL within the next couple of hours of it persits.Conditions aloft aren't to favorable but iam still still thinking it may allow for the formation of a TD or at most a TS.

Persistence is key.
1165. Patrap
Its actually a big ol trough..not really a ULL...I kinda seem to want tha Carb Low bugger to get going.Dont want it to linger and miss the push Ne.
thanks StormW..
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Hi H23

Conditions aloft are much better than yesterday and improving quickly. Take a look at the shear map with my 11:57 post
I am wondering whether the upper air feature on the Gulf Coast will pick up this system. So far it does not appear to be reacting to it
1169. Patrap
42056 Buoy has the numbers..Link
The local weather people in Tallahassee have mentioned that the High Pressure forecasted by the GFS model is too strong. Thus, that is pushing the system into South Florida.

The High Pressure over Florida has actually weakened and pushed its way eastward into the Atlantic. This should allow a more northern motion until the TROF over the central plains moves in and sweeps it out to sea.

But anywhere from North Florida to South Florida is still fair game for rain... hopefully North Florida though! Would help not only our area but South Georgia and their fires as well.

I have a hard time believing this will develop into a tropical system though as once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, shear will be too strong to develop into a pure tropical system. I expect to see a hybrid develop in the gulf instead.
1171. Patrap
That big sw flow under that trough is the mechanism to drive the Low/storm to the Nne Kman...
1172. IKE
SE winds gusting to 29 knots at buoy 42056.
1173. Patrap
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean Link
1175. IKE
Posted By: Joshfsu123 at 7:04 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
The local weather people in Tallahassee have mentioned that the High Pressure forecasted by the GFS model is too strong. Thus, that is pushing the system into South Florida.

The High Pressure over Florida has actually weakened and pushed its way eastward into the Atlantic. This should allow a more northern motion until the TROF over the central plains moves in and sweeps it out to sea.


I read their morning discussion and was disappointed...not much rain according to them. Hopefully their wrong.
Yeah Pat thats what I thought and you can see SSW winds on the W side of the Yucatan from it on the WV loop. All depends on whether those winds stay down there as the gomex feature moves to the E. The NW Caribbean down in the Bay of Campeche is famous for weak steering any time of year. Remember Mitch got stuck on top of Roatan for 5 days !
1177. Patrap
Mitch is a nightmare memory. I was rebuilding homes on the water in Bay Minette east of Mobile Bay after Georges in 98. Imagine Mitch sized storm in GOM. Thats a creepy spookie thought.With weak steering to boot.
Morning IKE n everyone.. any chance we'll get some rain up here in panhandle from that system near the yucatan?
Yeah, I'm in the middle of doing my analysis, and the only models that are closest right now at intializing this are the NAM, and UKMET. CMC has it too far south, although this area was just recently analyzed as a surface low...so it's possible the models may catch on.

SW, remember that the last CMC run is now over 12hrs old also. I am not discounting the CMC yet. It has been very consistent with the forecast for some time now. Not to mention, the CMC would likely be best for all in Fla and Ga...

The next run should be out around 2. Find most of the models and model pages from here.

Back to work. Catch y'all later.
1180. IKE
Good morning everyone....

I don't care if this system is ever a TD or TS...just a couple of inches of rain please...although I think it will make it to at least a TD.
1181. IKE
The NAM and CMC are the northern/western models. GFS..UKMET are to south Florida.
BBL
1184. Patrap
Buoy 42056 5-day plot shows the fall well. Link
1185. Patrap
The buoy graphs show it best kris.That buoy is in a sweet spot.
1186. augur
Latest water vapor and visible satellite show the clover leaf pattern that I often see portends a quickly developing TS when wind shear permits, with center at about 83.7 w, 18.3 n
1187. ricderr
well...we got models....we got lows....we got rain in south florida that has now traveled north to ft lauderdale...hopefully it can make it another 100 miles to my parched lawn...this should be a good day
Yeah,Patrpa.You don't often get them that luckily placed.
1189. Patrap
Film from yesterdays tropical rains..and a dove ric. Link
1190. pcshell
why is no one talking about barbara she looks to be trying to make a cross
1191. nash28
Good morning my freinds. Got a meeting this morning, but will be back in a bit. Our chances for at least a TD are looking better this morning.
1192. Patrap
Only 1 vis frame on Barbara.You can see it on the IR though here.Link
pcshell...seriously doubt that.A system going from one basin to another is rare enough...but when it does happen,it's usually from the Atlantic to EPAC,not the other way around.
Once in a Blue Moon. . .
1196. crownwx
New Colorado State U hurricane forecast should be released by 10:30 am EDT.

Link
It's interesting to note that CONU,the consensus system which usually has average forecast errors better than the NHC...has it heading towards the GOM.Still doubt it,though.
Can't wait for that CSU forecast,especially their landfall probabilities.
1199. Patrap
The 60 hour GOM wind model..wave,SSts,current too....Link
1200. ricderr
PAT...very nice...when we lived in Ca.....we had a pair that would nest on our balcony.....loved to hear them 'talk" to each other.....
I expect very little change on there update.
1202. Patrap
They there every day...morning,evening
1203. HCW
I expect us to see and Invest out of this very soon

Link

It's a shame that hybrids in that area don't produce that much rain.

Hardcoreweather.com

Link
1204. ricderr
ok h23......why do you expect little change?
LOL...we'll bite.
1207. augur
Barbara may be keeping incipient Barry from moving north in time to soak Florida.
Overall nothing has changed as far as the season goes we still are looking at nina in the next few months and conditions also things look to be favorable acorss the MDR region.As far as landfall predictions there's really no reason to speculate on what areas will see activity later this summer as only mother nature knows whats going yo take place.All you can do is just be ready and prepare for the worst and hope for the best.Adrian
augur...how do you figure that?
Thanks Adrian.
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 8:52 AM EDT on May 31, 2007. (hide)
H23... seems to be ... well.... rather dramatic change from yesterday..... what was your forecst yesterday?

No body is being dramatic about anything here just stateing facts about the convection to my south.

1214. K8eCane
H23
he didnt say anybody was being dramatic
he said rather dramatic change from yesterday
Hey storm!
1216. K8eCane
anyway
this blob gives something for everyone to watch and speculate on
i enjoy that myself
1217. K8eCane
i know absolutely LITTLE about forecasting
but you can learn a lot here and also a lot by watching storms year after year
and watching the types of things that move and mold them
other than that i know NOTHING
There's 2 directions this area could go,a path to the north towards the panhandle on futher south into south florida and the keys.Overall the impacts look the same as of right now with lots of tropical moisture.
1219. K8eCane
but you guys continue on and i'll continue lurking and attempting to learn
1221. K8eCane
hello Storm !
good to see ya!
I personally think the storm will take the more northerly path.The trough that is pulling the system north and west is going to move slower than expected due to the cut-off low in the Plains;the models often overestimate the speed of those systems.Unfortunately,that means less rain in South Florida,the place that needs it most.
Good morning Fellows: Just took a look at Nexrad and saw something strange on the Indianapolis Radar...Could you please check and tell me what you see...Has there been an explosion or something there?
Morning all! That Low in the carribean has really gained some convection since last night.

any comments?

1225. augur
kris, the water vapor imagery shows the 2 in a yanyang organizing the weather over the entire basin imho, enough to move incipient barry more ene
1226. Patrap
This effect..Link
1227. K8eCane
alley oop
can you give a link to that?
1228. IKE
Posted By: weatherboykris at 8:06 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
I personally think the storm will take the more northerly path.The trough that is pulling the system north and west is going to move slower than expected due to the cut-off low in the Plains;the models often overestimate the speed of those systems.Unfortunately,that means less rain in South Florida,the place that needs it most.

We've had about one-tenth of an inch of rain up here in the panhandle this month. Can't be much drier down there...I remember Miami got flooded one day or parts of it did with heavy rain.
1229. Patrap
radar fuzz..thats all.The operator changing modes most likely.
1230. Patrap
Indianapolis radar.. Link
1231. K8eCane
thanks pat
did something explode there or is that a normal radar?
1232. IKE
Posted By: augur at 8:07 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
kris, the water vapor imagery shows the 2 in a yanyang organizing the weather over the entire basin imho, enough to move incipient barry more ene


Barry?
1233. Patrap
Indy still there ..Link
1234. crownwx
Does anyone have an idea of what's up with PodWeather.com? It's been down for the last couple of days. Have used it extensively for weather radio shows. Link
Miami has been getting a lot of rain but Broward north (including Lake O) haven't had any significant rain in a long time.
Iam leaning towards a more southern track at this time.Overall all this wet weather will be pulled north into the florida peninsula.
Posted By: Alleyoops at 1:06 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

Good morning Fellows: Just took a look at Nexrad and saw something strange on the Indianapolis Radar...Could you please check and tell me what you see...Has there been an explosion or something there?


That happened a few months ago on the Tampa radar.It is a problem with the radar's software.It's not even really false echoes,just ignore it.Besides,an explosion that big would have to be a nuke,and that would knock out the radar station anyway.
1238. Patrap
42056 Buoy has the numbers..Link
In fact, I think it was only downtown Miami/Miami Beach that got all the rain.

Lake O needs needs the rain so for those of us here that use it as a water source.
Posted By: IKE at 1:08 PM GMT on May 31, 2007.

Posted By: weatherboykris at 8:06 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
I personally think the storm will take the more northerly path.The trough that is pulling the system north and west is going to move slower than expected due to the cut-off low in the Plains;the models often overestimate the speed of those systems.Unfortunately,that means less rain in South Florida,the place that needs it most.

We've had about one-tenth of an inch of rain up here in the panhandle this month. Can't be much drier down there...I remember Miami got flooded one day or parts of it did with heavy rain.


That was an isolated incident of street flooding which was the result of one,stationary thunderstorm.Other than that,the area's a desert.
Thanks Kris...looks like its cleared itself up. Will keep an eye out to see if it shows up again.
Posted By: IKE at 9:08 AM EDT on May 31, 2007.

Posted By: weatherboykris at 8:06 AM CDT on May 31, 2007.
I personally think the storm will take the more northerly path.The trough that is pulling the system north and west is going to move slower than expected due to the cut-off low in the Plains;the models often overestimate the speed of those systems.Unfortunately,that means less rain in South Florida,the place that needs it most.

We've had about one-tenth of an inch of rain up here in the panhandle this month. Can't be much drier down there...I remember Miami got flooded one day or parts of it did with heavy rain.


Im in Sarasota FL and we have had no rain here. so be thankful for your 1/10 lol
1243. IKE
I agree the entire state of Florida needs rain and the way this system is getting it's act together it seems more likely.
HPC 5 day rain totals is heaviest right over me.

rain
1245. Patrap
Poof!..its still here..LOLLink
Probably,IKE.I don't think anyone will really miss it.But the track the low itself will take is still up in the air.
That'd be some really good rain Adrian,LOL.Where it needs to fall most is just north of the lake though.That way the runoff heads into the lake and through the Everglades.
1248. IKE
I'm hoping it takes the northern track.
Yea kris but it will take 2 dozen events like this before conditions really only begin to improve around the lake.
INVEST 92L IS BORN!!!!
Is it just me or is there banding taking place around a COC just east of Belize? Look at the latest IR.
1252. emagirl
anyone seen the imax film "Hurricane at the Bayou" yet it starts in mobile, AL tomorrow
From looking at the visible loop and the GHCC zoom it would appear that the center of the low is near 19N 85W under the W side of the deep convection. If so this would indicate either motion to the East or a relocation of the "center" although early stage systems tend not to have a precise center but more of a broad based area of low pressure. All that heavy convection on the East side of the system could however result in a true low center reforming further to the East in time
1254. Patrap
Excellent IMAX film.Saw it here at Aquarium of the AMericas,..NOLA.
Now confirmed invest 92L...Wow the 3rd one in the month of may.
1256. ricderr
h23...that's that precip forecast....is that the latest forecast?
1257. Patrap
"Hurricane On the Bayou "..website. Link
1258. emagirl
i was thinking of going to see it sunday just wanted to know if it was good or not
thanks
No particulars posted on the Navy site as yet though
Now lets see if 92L can stay over open waters long enough to get really going. Also will be interesting to see with the shear and all.
1261. Patrap
Heres a slideshow from the movie too..Link
They should be in shortly...Winds at 25kts.

gg
thanks for the heads up 23....you are right on this stuff! I just went to the navy site and verified! Invest 92L
1264. Patrap
IR loop of GOM...Link
Yep...we have an invest.Here's some AMSU data:



Still no well-defined warm or cold core.
1266. Patrap
Keys Radar long range...Link
Now if I do recall correctly... GFS had a system spinning up roughly around the 31st. ;)
Can someone explain what "invest means" Is that to mean that the information verifies? Thanks
new blog
1270. emagirl
is the forecast out from CSU yet
T-MINUS 98 MINS TO HURRICANE SEASON