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Sea level rise: what has happened so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on June 10, 2009

Sea level has been rising globally since the late 1700s. This rise has accelerated in recent decades, thanks to increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets due to a warmer climate, plus the fact that warmer oceans are less dense and expand, further increasing sea level. Though sea level rise appears to have slowed over the past five years, it will significantly accelerate if the climate warms the 2 - 3°C it is expected to this century. If these forecasts of a warmer world prove accurate, higher sea levels will be a formidable challenge for millions of people world-wide during the last half of this century. Sea level rise represents one of my personal top two climate change concerns (drought is the other). I'll present a series of blog posts over the coming months focusing on at-risk areas in the U.S., Caribbean, and world-wide. Today, I focus on the observed sea level rise since the Ice Age.

What's at stake
Higher sea levels mean increased storm surge inundation, coastal erosion, loss of low-lying land areas, and salt water contamination of underground drinking water supplies. About 44% of the Earth's 6.7 billion people live within 150 km (93 miles) of the coast, and 600 million people live at an elevation less than ten meters (33 feet). Eight of the ten largest cities in the world are sited on the ocean coast. In the U.S., the coastal population has doubled over the past 50 years. Fourteen of the twenty largest urban centers are located within 100 km of the coast, and are less than ten meters above sea level (McGranahan et al., 2007). The population of many vulnerable coastal regions are expected to double by 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Sea level rise since the Ice Age
Before the most recent Ice Age, sea level was about 4 - 6 meters (13 - 20 feet) higher than at present. Then, during the Ice Age, sea level dropped 120 meters (395 ft) as water evaporated from the oceans precipitated out onto the great land-based ice sheets. The former ocean water remained frozen in those ice sheets during the Ice Age, but began being released 12,000 - 15,000 years ago as the Ice Age ended and the climate warmed. Sea level increased about 115 meters over a several thousand year period, rising 40 mm/year (1.6"/yr) during one 500-year pulse of melting 14,600 years ago. The rate of sea level rise slowed to 11 mm/year (0.43"/yr) during the period 7,000 - 14,000 years ago (Bard et al., 1996), then further slowed to 0.5 mm/yr 6,000 - 3,000 years ago. About 2,000 - 3,000 years ago, the sea level stopped rising, and remained fairly steady until the late 1700s (IPCC 2007). One exception to this occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present (Grinsted et al., 2008). This was probably the highest the sea has been since the beginning of the Ice Age, 110,000 years ago. There is a fair bit of uncertainty in all these estimates, since we don't have direct measurements of the sea level.


Figure 1. Global sea level from 200 A.D. to 2000, as reconstructed from proxy records of sea level by Moberg et al. 2005. The thick black line is reconstructed sea level using tide gauges (Jevrejeva, 2006). The lightest gray shading shows the 5 - 95% uncertainty in the estimates, and the medium gray shading denotes the one standard deviation error estimate. The highest global sea level of the past 110,000 years likely occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present. Image credit: Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

Sea level rise over the past 300 years
Direct measurements of sea level using tide gauges began in Amsterdam in 1700. Additional tide gauges began recording data in Liverpool, England in 1768 and in Stockholm, Sweden in 1774. These gauges suggest that a steady acceleration of sea rise of 0.01 mm per year squared began in the late 1700s, resulting in a rise in sea level of 2.4" (6 cm, 0.6 mm/yr) during the 19th century and 7.5" (19 cm, 1.9 mm/yr) during the 20th century (Jevrejeva et al., 2008). There is considerable uncertainty in just how much sea level rise has occurred over the past few centuries, though. Measuring global average sea level rise is a very tricky business. For starters, one must account for the tides, which depend on the positions of the Earth and Moon on a cycle that repeats itself once every 18.6 years. Tide gauges are scattered, with varying lengths of record. The data must be corrected since land is sinking in some regions, due to pumping of ground water, oil and gas extraction, and natural compaction of sediments. Also, the land is rising in other regions, such as Northern Europe, where it is rebounding from the lost weight of the melted glaciers that covered the region during the last Ice Age. Ocean currents, precipitation, and evaporation can cause a 20 inch (50 cm) difference in sea level in different portions of the ocean. As a result of all this uncertainty, the 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report gave a range of 4 - 10" (10 - 25 cm) for the observed sea level rise of the 20th century. The 2007 IPCC report narrowed this range a bit, to 5 - 9" (12 - 22 cm), or 1.2 - 2.2 mm/year. Rates of sea level rise are much higher in many regions. In the U.S., the highest rates of sea-level rise are along the Mississippi Delta region--over 10 mm/yr, or 1 inch/2.5 years (USGS, 2006). This large relative rise is due, in large part, to the fact that the land is sinking.


Figure 2. Absolute sea level rise between 1955 and 2003 as computed from tide gauges and satellite imagery data. The data has been corrected for the rising or sinking of land due to crustal motions or subsidence of the land, so the relative sea level rise along the coast will be different than this. The total rise (in inches) for the 48-year period is given in the top scale, and the rate in mm/year is given in the bottom scale. The regional sea level variations shown here resulted not only from the input of additional water from melting of glaciers and ice caps, but also from changes in ocean temperature and density, as well as changes in precipitation, ocean currents, and river discharge. Image credit: IPCC, 2007

Sea level rise over the past 15 years
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, sea level accelerated from the 1.2 - 2.2 mm/yr observed during the 20th century to 3.1 mm/year during the period 1993 - 2003. These estimates come from high resolution measurements from satellite radar altimeters, which began in 1992. Tide gauges showed a similar level of sea level rise during that ten-year period. The IPCC attributed more than half of this rise (1.6 mm/yr) to the fact that the ocean expanded in size due to increased temperatures. Another 1.2 mm/yr rise came from melting of Greenland, West Antarctica, and other land-based ice, and about 10% of the rise was unaccounted for. However, during the period 2003 - 2008, sea level rise slowed to 2.5 mm/year, according to measurements of Earth's gravity from the GRACE satellites (Cazenave et al., 2008). This reduction in sea level rise probably occurred because ocean sea surface temperatures have not warmed since 2003 (Figure 3). The authors concluded that sea level rise due to ocean warming decreased more than a factor of five from 2003 - 2008, compared to 1993 - 2003, contributing only 0.3 mm/yr vs. the 1.6 mm/yr previously.


Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

For more information
The best source of information I found while compiling my sea level pages was the Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region report by the U.S. Climate Science Program. It has a huge number of references to all the latest science being done on sea level rise.

References
Bard, E., et al., 1996, "Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge", Nature 382, pp241-244, doi:10.1038/382241a0.

Cazenave et al., 2008, "Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from satellite altimetry and Argo", Global and Planetary Change, 2008; DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.004

Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, 996 pp.

Jevrejeva, S., J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted,, and P.L. Woodworth, 2008, "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?", Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008.

McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Moberg, A., et al., 2005, "Highly variable northern hemisphere temperature reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data", Nature 433, pp613-617, doi:10.1038/nature03265.

United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2006, National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-179.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and the only region worth watching is the Western Caribbean, which could see formation of a tropical disturbance with heavy thunderstorm activity this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Ossqss
Is that a circulation over the S Bahama's?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Not saying anything against the NHC or anything, but I wonder if they're looking at the disturbance.
.
1502. They're doing fine with it right now. Nothing imminent.
1505. Ossqss
Delete all this stuff and it will shrink :)

Hey it worked - all the BR stuff FM.




1506. vortfix
SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH
OF THE AREA E OF 55W. A RIDGE LIES BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 29N72W
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 72W.
THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF AREA LATE SAT. AN E TO W RIDGE
WILL BUILD WWD ALONG 27N SAT THROUGH MON.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112338
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH...AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

I'm starting to agree with some of the bloggers on here that we may not see our first named Atlantic storm until July or perhaps August.
Se Bahamas circulation is the ull. seems to have stopped moving sw.
1510. Ossqss
Patrap, you still out there?

Just curious, when you were in the eye,assuming you lost power, what did you do for power? Battery operated stuff or inverter etc, to power radio, tv etc.


1508 6-27 :)
We are all worryin about a Carribbean blob, look at the blob approachin the lesser antillies
1512. Patrap
During the Storm I had a Car Battery and AM/FM Car Radio and a Speaker in the Attic with me..an NOVA.
In case I was flooded out,at least Id have info.
Kinda funny story with me...with Frances and Jeanne, I didn't have power for about a total of a month. With Wilma, which took my roof off, I had power the next day.
Ossgss good point I was about to say get a small battery powered TV, but I just realize ,what are we going to do now that we are going digital. Someone could make a lot of money or maybe they have I don't know.
1515. Ossqss
Quoting gordydunnot:
Ossgss good point I was about to say get a small battery powered TV, but I just realize ,what are we going to do now that we are going digital. Someone could make a lot of money or maybe they have I don't know.


Going digital tomorrow !

I used an inverter with a deepcycle and small TV. You could inline the converter in that senario.

Pat, what is NOVA?
1516. Patrap
An Radio is a much better tool than aTV post Storm...

Easily carried and used.
TV from the Local Stations most likely will be down in a Big Cane.
Quoting Ossqss:


Going digital tomorrow !

I used an inverter with a deepcycle and small TV. You could inline the converter in that senario.

Pat, what is NOVA?
Isn't that a car?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Kinda funny story with me...with Frances and Jeanne, I didn't have power for about a total of a month. With Wilma, which took my roof off, I had power the next day.


Same here basically (minus the roof). Must be a Palm Springs thing.
1519. Patrap
Nova Von Snowcloud was my German Shepherd who passed Dec 16th 08.
She never left my side for 19days Post K and was instrumental in many respects to the job we were doing post Storm.

1520. Ossqss
DTV item from tonight.

Link

Another you may want to look at that I posted earlier. We all will be impacted to some degree.

Link
We must be on the same grid O5
1522. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
Nova Von Snowcloud was my German Shepherd who passed Dec 16th 08.
She never left my side for 19days Post K and was instrumental in many respects to the job we were doing post Storm.



Beautiful dog Pat, I am sure Nova is missed very much.
Pat your right about radio but most small tv's have radio. I was pointing out that you can watch the eye come ashore on tv and while you usually loss power before the eye gets there the tv stations dont. Weather radio is best no doubt.I was watching tv when Andrew hit I breath a sight of relief before some called the jog south.Plus you can watch the bands for yourself as in the Wilma radar.
1524. Patrap
Nova was the Last of a Line I bred since 89.

And she was Awarded the Same Accolades as I for her work Post Katrina,..though not present in Baton Rouge Dec 1 06,she was mentioned as the Tribute Citation was read,..and that will always be a reminder that even during the Darkest Days,her eyes and ears especially heard many a Cry for Help..
And without her,we may have missed scores of folks.
1526. Ossqss
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pat your right about radio but most small tv's have radio. I was pointing out that you can watch the eye come ashore on tv and while you usually loss power before the eye gets there the tv stations dont. Weather radio is best no doubt.I was watching tv when Andrew hit I breath a sight of relief before some called the jog south.Plus you can watch the bands for yourself as in the Wilma radar.


I got one of these Sony items. Runs on 2-C batteries or the hand crank power that goes to two internal NiMH batteries. Works well and is inexpensive.

Link
Thanks ,Ossgss
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pat your right about radio but most small tv's have radio. I was pointing out that you can watch the eye come ashore on tv and while you usually loss power before the eye gets there the tv stations dont. Weather radio is best no doubt.I was watching tv when Andrew hit I breath a sight of relief before some called the jog south.Plus you can watch the bands for yourself as in the Wilma radar.

With the digital switch u have to have a digital portable tv...even the radios that have "sound only" TVs, that is where u can listen to the TV broadcast only will go off the air.
2009 Hurricane Early Season A Bust! I bet if we all left the blog for 2 weeks, and came back, nothing would have formed during our break.
1531. Ossqss
That is awesome Patrick. Keep doing what you do. I am glad to have met you!
Testing if my new avatar was approved...
During Frances and Jeanne, I used both radio and portable T.V. Needed that T.V.!!! Our local Channel 5 has a $10 off coupon for a digital portable T.V. on it's website.

Link
barometer Bob is on.....Link
1535. Patrap
19 days Post K isnt the measure of any one Man's Life,let alone mine.
But without a doubt,it has opened up New venues for my voice to carry in Preparation and Post Storm needs,..the thing like we do at Portlight.org is a true example of How we all can become involved in Disaster Relief.
I encourage all who can to Help in Volusia County starting tomorrow with the Gutting of the 2 Homes we adopted to rebuild.
This season already has claimed 1500 flooded Homes in Florida.
So by helping Portlight ,either with a Donation or time,is a Fine way to get this seasons effects in ones Home state,..a Head start.

Our work in Holly Hill, Fl will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering please contact John Wilbanks john@portlight.org 843-200-6022.


Portlight.org featured Blog and the Volusia Project
1536. Ossqss
Another little ditty I have found very useful is this unit. It is a DC power source, a jump starter, an inflator/deflator,compressor, and removable light (18 hrs). I have used the stuffing out of it and it keeps going. It was $50 at one of the wholesale clubs. AC-Delco brand, but there are many of them out there.

Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Same here basically (minus the roof). Must be a Palm Springs thing.


It was the same for us in Indian River county. I'm sure it has to do with where the storm entered and left the state. Jeanne and Francis left many many more people on the east coast needing repair making it harder to get to right away whereas Wilma left the east coast probably as a weaker storm/effects leaving fewer here needing repairs making what we have availible much quicker to the response
1538. Patrap
Those are Great to have as well ossgss in all emergencies.

I have to get one of those.
I'd never question Mr. Patrap, any man that puts his money and derriere were his mouth is, are far and few between.
1540. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
There are Great as well ossgss in all emergencies.

I have to get one of those.


With 2 small kids, I have to keep them entertained when the power goes out. Especially in a storm. The inverter with the battery, powered their small TV and games for many hours. Keeping their minds off of the other stuff. Mine too.

If you have an inverter, a car battery, a DTV converter and small TV, you can have some creature comforts available to you during the storm. Most never think that they are not going to run the generator outside in high winds and rain, which can last a long time, unless they have a weatherized unit with an auto-transfer switch etc.
Quoting Ossqss:


With 2 small kids, I have to keep them entertained when the power goes out. Especially in a storm. The inverter with the battery, powered their small TV and games for many hours. Keeping their minds off of the other stuff. Mine too.

If you have an inverter, a car battery, a DTV converter and small TV, you can have some creature comforts available to you during the storm. Most never think that they are not going to run the generator outside in high winds and rain, which can last a long time, unless they have a weatherized unit with an auto-transfer switch etc.
What is a DTV converter ? Tried to use a car battery and inverter after Ivan to run a fan to sleep but by the time I started to doze off the battery went dead. Never had power here for 2 1/2 months. Thank God we got a generator after about 3-4 weeks.
1542. Ossqss
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What is a DTV converter ? Tried to use a car battery and inverter after Ivan to run a fan to sleep but by the time I started to doze off the battery went dead. Never had power here for 2 1/2 months. Thank God we got a generator after about 3-4 weeks.


Digital TV converter. That happens tomorrow. No more rabbit ears and analog Tv's. Posts earlier on the subject.

Note -- lead acid batteries (car) need to be kept charged or they die. No battery of any kind should ever be let to drain completely.

I gave my inverter and battery and fan to the elderly in Punta Gorda and they used it for two days straight without recharge. It was a 120 amphour deepcycle.
These are good discussions while we are waiting for a invest.
Quoting Ossqss:
Is that a circulation over the S Bahama's?


Circulation is in the upper levels no development.
CO2 rose above 390 ppm for the first time on record last month:

Link
Quoting Patrap:
Portable Digital TV's are already available,a Lil Pricey,but lower priced brands are coming out every week now seems.




Got mine a few weeks back with a 400 Watt Inverter to charge in my car.Go here for some 7inch Widescreen Portable Handheld DIGITAL Color TV's.
1548. Ossqss
Quoting hurricane23:


Got mine a few weeks back with a 400 Watt Inverter to charge in my car.Go here for some 7inch Widescreen Portable Handheld DIGITAL Color TV's.


If you have a portable DVD player, many have inputs on them for external souce play. They work wonderfully and don't use much power. Just a couple of RCA cables from the converter and poof, your there.

Have a good night all. L8R
Could that Co2 plot have anything to do with volcanic activity. I only ask because that area seems to be the most sighted area for Co2 levels.I'm not trying to stir the pot just asking why this is the main sight. I do think there is gw although.
Quoting Ossqss:


If you have a portable DVD player, many have inputs on them for external souce play. They work wonderfully and don't use much power. Just a couple of RCA cables from the converter and poof, your there.

Have a good night all. L8R
That I do have.External source play(would that be like to hook up on a larger tv ? Not very smart when it comes to electronics. Since I have a generator now I normally recharge the DVD player battery when necessary.
1551. gator23
Quoting Ossqss:


Digital TV converter. That happens tomorrow. No more rabbit ears and analog Tv's. Posts earlier on the subject.

Note -- lead acid batteries (car) need to be kept charged or they die. No battery of any kind should ever be let to drain completely.

I gave my inverter and battery and fan to the elderly in Punta Gorda and they used it for two days straight without recharge. It was a 120 amphour deepcycle.


Not true. If you recieve your tv over the air you will still need rabbit ears
Some really good ideas here for things to keep us going during the storm.

I'm not a fan of running a generator during the storm itself. We never have turned ours on until the weather has cleared.

Currently installing a hardwired 15,000k house generator - having arguments with electrician over completely automatic vs. a manual switch. Not sure that I would like this to come on either during a storm, or if power goes out & we aren't home. Anyone have experience with either one of these scenarios?

The blob seems to be getting very close to Haiti now. One thing they don't need is any more rain.
The invest a couple weeks back gave them more than enough rain. I read that they had a few deaths I assume from drowning. That is the one place they would break anyone's heart.
1554. gator23
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Kinda funny story with me...with Frances and Jeanne, I didn't have power for about a total of a month. With Wilma, which took my roof off, I had power the next day.


If you do not have a digital tv you can use an inverter hooked to a battery in your home. Many inverters have battery leads for this reason. A 300 watt inverter should support both the tv and the and converter.
1555. Ossqss
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That I do have.External source play(would that be like to hook up on a larger tv ? Not very smart when it comes to electronics. Since I have a generator now I normally recharge the DVD player battery when necessary.


No, it would allow you to hook up the Digital TV converter to recieve digital TV signals, over the air, and play them on your portable DVD player during a storm. Basically converting your DVD player into a TV. The converters are simply digital tuners with RF-coax and RCA jack outputs. The converter will need an antenna however and rabbit ears will work but not as good as a cheap digital tv antenna. Note, most portable DVD players come with special cables to allow for that if they do not have RCA input jacks on them.

Gotta run, I am late. L8R
Quoting zoomiami:
Some really good ideas here for things to keep us going during the storm.

I'm not a fan of running a generator during the storm itself. We never have turned ours on until the weather has cleared.

Currently installing a hardwired 15,000k house generator - having arguments with electrician over completely automatic vs. a manual switch. Not sure that I would like this to come on either during a storm, or if power goes out & we aren't home. Anyone have experience with either one of these scenarios?


Hey Zoo,

We have a 15,000 hardwired Generac. It is set to automatic. When we first installed it, the first power outage tripped the switch and hubby had to go out in violent weather to manually turn it on. Not fun. Having it on when you are not home can save your freezer/refrig contents...that's a great thing.
Having A/C even after a blackout from a thunderstorm is worth every penny....not to mention days upon days, sweltering heat after a big blow.
Think I'm going to buy a couple of those digitals for me and my dad. They are pretty cheap right now and nice to have around...just in case.
Quoting Ossqss:


No, it would allow you to hook up the Digital TV converter to recieve digital TV signals, over the air, and play them on your portable DVD player during a storm. Basically converting your DVD player into a TV. The converters are simply digital tuners with RF-coax and RCA jack outputs. The converter will need an antenna however and rabbit ears will work but not as good as a cheap digital tv antenna. Note, most portable DVD players come with special cables to allow for that if they do not have RCA input jacks on them.

Gotta run, I am late. L8R
We only have one local TV station here and everything else we get by cable or satellite from the US so I don't know how much good that we do here.
1559. Makoto1
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
907 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.

* AT 904 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 SINCE 730 PM.


* UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPTEDTED. WHILE
RAINFALL WAS BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA...RUNOFF FROM THIS
EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ENGLEWOOD...
CLAYTON...HUBER HEIGHTS...NORTHRIDGE...TROTWOOD AND VANDALIA.

This is my night.
1560. Ossqss
Quoting zoomiami:
Some really good ideas here for things to keep us going during the storm.

I'm not a fan of running a generator during the storm itself. We never have turned ours on until the weather has cleared.

Currently installing a hardwired 15,000k house generator - having arguments with electrician over completely automatic vs. a manual switch. Not sure that I would like this to come on either during a storm, or if power goes out & we aren't home. Anyone have experience with either one of these scenarios?



Have him place a manual cut off or remote start in between. It is the law to have a auto switch. You could kill a worker if you pump power back out if your main is not off. There are solutions there. It just costs money :)
1561. gator23
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We only have one local TV station here and everything else we get by cable or satellite from the US so I don't know how much good that we do here.


Are you located in the US?
Quoting gator23:


Are you located in the US?
No. Cayman Islands.
Quoting zoomiami:
Some really good ideas here for things to keep us going during the storm.

I'm not a fan of running a generator during the storm itself. We never have turned ours on until the weather has cleared.

Currently installing a hardwired 15,000k house generator - having arguments with electrician over completely automatic vs. a manual switch. Not sure that I would like this to come on either during a storm, or if power goes out & we aren't home. Anyone have experience with either one of these scenarios?



well if you're not home you have freezer/refrigerator to worry about. if it's in a storm you could always throw the main breaker off if you'd rather in not come on. .. just some thoughts
1565. gator23

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No. Cayman Islands.


The DTV transition does not apply to you. Please continue using your portable tv as normal
Quoting gator23:



The DTV transition does not apply to you. Please continue using your portable tv as normal
Thanks.
1567. gator23
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks.


No problem.
Quoting beell:
An option for some folks if you have natural gas.

Houston's CenterPoint Energy offers 5% discount (up to $2,500) on installed cost of stand-by generators


We also got a discount through our gas company a few years back for our generator. But that's probably because we installed a 50,000 unit at one of the restaurants. Talk about real peace of mind when you have freezers and coolers full of food.
Anyone know of any whole-home generators in the West Palm Beach area? I have natural gas. (That doesn't sound good, does it?)
1570. TX2FL
Quoting Ossqss:


No, it would allow you to hook up the Digital TV converter to recieve digital TV signals, over the air, and play them on your portable DVD player during a storm. Basically converting your DVD player into a TV. The converters are simply digital tuners with RF-coax and RCA jack outputs. The converter will need an antenna however and rabbit ears will work but not as good as a cheap digital tv antenna. Note, most portable DVD players come with special cables to allow for that if they do not have RCA input jacks on them.

Gotta run, I am late. L8R


Would this work hooking it up to a laptop as well?
Trying to run a central A/C on a generator takes a huge amount of fuel. You better have gas piped in or a fuel delivery service under contract - even that could get tough after a storm. A big diesel generator operating on a quiet night is doubly obnoxious - the noise & the smell.
One of these will only use 620watts off of your generator. It has a 12.10 EER. You don't need to cool the whole house to hang meat. Alternate it with your refrigerator, and use the batteries/inverter at night when it needs to be quiet (for a fan, small TV/computer, & fluorescent lights).

If you have a transfer switch, or otherwise power your whole house, or even a couple of circuits, unplug all those transformers "wall warts". They waste a lot of power cumulatively. HVAC, doorbell, etc... all have transformers. More efficient just to use good heavy gauge cords for the few items you power.
Quoting sugarsand:


We also got a discount through our gas company a few years back for our generator. But that's probably because we installed a 50,000 unit at one of the restaurants. Talk about real peace of mind when you have freezers and coolers full of food.


That is a big generator, I'm tickled with the 15,000 - will at least run one of our central ac units. Although we've been told if we buy new units that have some type of regulator when it kicks in, we could actually run both. But even having one would be such a luxury!
For personal safety....First a radio...then a T.V...a laptop would be towards the end of the list.
Quoting zoomiami:


That is a big generator, I'm tickled with the 15,000 - will at least run one of our central ac units. Although we've been told if we buy new units that have some type of regulator when it kicks in, we could actually run both. But even having one would be such a luxury!


Zoo, we have a 15,000 hardwired for our house. The restaurant is the big Momma...
Quoting sugarsand:


Zoo, we have a 15,000 hardwired for our house. The restaurant is the big Momma...


Ps...automatic is the way to go.
1576. beell
Quoting sugarsand:


We also got a discount through our gas company a few years back for our generator. But that's probably because we installed a 50,000 unit at one of the restaurants. Talk about real peace of mind when you have freezers and coolers full of food.


Good gosh, yes, ss. It's bad enough taking care of one home refrigerator after a storm-I can just imagine! Yuck!

The natural gas system never lost a second in Houston after Ike. However, if you are in an area that suffers heavy damage-like Bolivar and Galveston Island the gas company may shut-in their system. Makes the clean-up a little safer. All those gas meters buried under debris with bulldozers and backhoes running all over the place.

Quoting sugarsand:


Ps...automatic is the way to go.


Thanks Sugar - I did figure the big one was for the restaurant.

Talking about the food - when everyone talks about having enough food on hand, since we have the ability to run our big freezer, I stock up on things that can be cooked on the grill and stored in the freezer. Makes stocking supplies much easier.
Beell - I think with devastating damage all bets are off. We can only protect so much, and then its up to god and mother nature.
Some persons expectations for June is too high and it's affecting their best judgement of the rest of the season with comments like "wind shear is too high, no develop until such and such date"

1580. beell
I have natural gas. (That doesn't sound good, does it?)

I passed on that, Geoffery. But only, just, barely. Good work!
Quoting sugarsand:


Zoo, we have a 15,000 hardwired for our house. The restaurant is the big Momma...
These types of generators are very pricey in Cayman and not so easy to get. I have a decent size portable but that was a luxury after Ivan. The first things I plugged in were a deep freeze for the ice, a window unit for the cold air and a couple of lights. Didn't need any more than that because due to damage to the house we were all (4) camping in one room anyway.
Quoting beell:


Good gosh, yes, ss. It's bad enough taking care of one home refrigerator after a storm-I can just imagine! Yuck!

The natural gas system never lost a second in Houston after Ike. However, if you are in an area that suffers heavy damage-like Bolivar and Galveston Island the gas company may shut-in their system. Makes the clean-up a little safer. All those gas meters buried under debris with bulldozers and backhoes running all over the place.



Before we got the generator, I think it was Hurri Ivan, we used all our food to feed the Emergency crews rather than waste the food. Law Enforcement loved the steaks and seafood. Cooked it on their grills. Was worth every bit of food, those guys were heroes; kept looters at bay and helped those in true need.
1583. Patrap
Tornado Warning
2009-06-11 21:39:27 EDT until
2009-06-11 22:00:00 EDT

837 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2009

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for central
Travis and south central Williamson counties...

At 835 PM CDT...a storm spotter reported a tornado with debris near
Jollyville. This rotation was moving southeast at 25 mph.

Some locations in the warning area include Round Rock...Wells
Branch...Windemere...Hutto and Pflugerville.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT Thursday evening
for south central Texas.

Wind shear remains in the unfavorable zone but has dropped considerable over the past 24-48 hrs

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
These types of generators are very pricey in Cayman and not so easy to get. I have a decent size portable but that was a luxury after Ivan. The first things I plugged in were a deep freeze for the ice, a window unit for the cold air and a couple of lights. Didn't need any more than that because due to damage to the house we were all (4) camping in one room anyway.


They are pricey here, too. Believe me.
1586. beell
Quoting zoomiami:
Beell - I think with devastating damage all bets are off. We can only protect so much, and then its up to god and mother nature.


Agreed, zoo. One's priorities shift some if you're standing in front of a bare concrete slab where your house once stood.
Check out the new feature on the personal blogs:



1588. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
Check out the new feature on the personal blogs:





Yeah I guess learning the font code wasn't really necessary lol.
456...If you were the GFS, would you predict a named storm this month? );
Quoting sugarsand:


Before we got the generator, I think it was Hurri Ivan, we used all our food to feed the Emergency crews rather than waste the food. Law Enforcement loved the steaks and seafood. Cooked it on their grills. Was worth every bit of food, those guys were heroes; kept looters at bay and helped those in true need.
I had bought 5 bags of ice and put in the deep freeze with my meats so managed to keep them cold long enough to use.
I live in one of the smallest districts in Cayman and it's more or less like a big family so everyone was cooking and everyone was eating. We are lucky enough to have a very wealthy woman here that helped my district tremendously with food, water and for those who didn't have their own generators. She also
helped with a lot of the rebuilding. She runs
IAMCO which helps a lot of places in the Caribbean.
The big generators are expensive. If you own your home, and need one to stay there after a storm, the insurance will usually pay for it.

While it use to be a luxury for most people, after 05-06 it became a necessity. After living in So Fla for 30 years, that was the first time we ran our office on generator.

Quoting sugarsand:


They are pricey here, too. Believe me.
I am sure they are but everything is brought in here from overseas and priced at about 100% or more profit so you can imagine. Right now we are paying about 3.40 CI for regular gas which is 4.25 US.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
456...If you were the GFS, would you predict a named storm this month? );


I'm not sure how to answer that but I would predict an increase likelihood for TC genesis from now until July.

After Andrew, my mom's house came back on line in the first few days. So everybody took all their food to her house, and everyone was invited to come and eat.

When had some great meals, and shared with everybody.

Sad to say, the first responders didn't come until after all the food would have spoiled. They really have learned a lot from what happened after Andrew. It was the beginning of a different era for recovery work.
Thankfully during Francis and Jeanne, I work at an establisment that I could at least bring home ice for my neighbors...would love a generator to take care of the basic needs of my neighbors. But the last time I priced, at least 6 grand for everything involved.
at last new toys added to the blog
Geoffrey - it is that much for the big hardwired ones, but a 5000 or 6500 are not that big investment, and the only difference is you have to run your own cords.

Should invest in one that meets your budget, anything helps.

When Andrew hit we were just married, just started our family, and had just bought a house. Needless to say money was not in great supply. Buying just the small generator took all the cash we had.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am sure they are but everything is brought in here from overseas and priced at about 100% or more profit so you can imagine. Right now we are paying about 3.40 CI for regular gas which is 4.25 US.
Quoting zoomiami:
The big generators are expensive. If you own your home, and need one to stay there after a storm, the insurance will usually pay for it.

While it use to be a luxury for most people, after 05-06 it became a necessity. After living in So Fla for 30 years, that was the first time we ran our office on generator.



After living here for 22 years, we invested in a generator and lexan(acrylic) and Bahama shutters (versus plywood). Not to say I would ride out a Cat 3, 4, 0r 5 (we are a block from the Gulf). It's not "if" but "when", right?
1599. ackee
Quoting Weather456:
Wind shear remains in the unfavorable zone but has dropped considerable over the past 24-48 hrs

does that mean the wave near the windward has a chance to develop ?
1600. gator23

I bought my propane generator from this guy. Seemed Honest.
1571. HIEXPRESS 8:28 PM CDT on June 11, 2009

that's good advice. IMHO, you can automate the alternating of devices with common household timers, which makes your life MUCH easier. have a power strip with several short extension cords and times, and you can set the schedule for them to alternate. then, all you have to do is watch the fuel level if you're using a gasoline-powered generator.
Sugar, same here. I just have to change out the top track on some of the windows for the lexan panels, they were a little wider than the steel panels.

I figure now we can put up shutters and still look outside, and not get claustrophic. As we have been replacing doors we are installing those rated for hurricanes.

lol - after all the prep we probably won't get another storm for 10 years.
I saw that you guys were talking about best performing models..

In general...for the tropics.. we prefer the GFDL..along with the GFS in the short term (out to 72hrs) after 72hrs we prefer a blend of the ECMWF and GFS or whichever has a best handle on the overall scenerio.

For North America...we prefer to use the GFS with a blend of the NAM or again..whichever has the best handel on the overall scenerio out to 72hrs. After 72 we do the ECMWF/GFS like said above.
the yellow color that was move N and out to sea is now this about gone the gap that tampspin spoted that he wass think that the sea temp may be cooling well that gap is gone



Quoting sugarsand:


After living here for 22 years, we invested in a generator and lexan(acrylic) and Bahama shutters (versus plywood). Not to say I would ride out a Cat 3, 4, 0r 5 (we are a block from the Gulf). It's not "if" but "when", right?
1606. Ossqss
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thankfully during Francis and Jeanne, I work at an establisment that I could at least bring home ice for my neighbors...would love a generator to take care of the basic needs of my neighbors. But the last time I priced, at least 6 grand for everything involved.


You can get a 10kw at BJ's wholesale for less than $2,000 with a 50 amp output plug - generac with a vanguard commercial engine. Most home AC units up to about 5 ton can run on that easily, but they use 1 gal an hour of gas.

I use that unit to power the AC to a cold level and shut it off, and I have a 4kw for the amenities and frig stuff. That unit runs for 13 hours on 4 gal. Both ratings are based upon 1/2 load. Most stuff uses the most power at startup then level off considerably. You gotta do the math and get out the meter to get the real picture of your needs.
Quoting Ossqss:


You can get a 10kw at BJ's wholesale for less than $2,000 with a 50 amp output plug - generac with a vanguard commercial engine. Most home AC units up to about 5 ton can run on that easily, but they use 1 gal an hour of gas.

I use that unit to power the AC to a cold level and shut it off, and I have a 4kw for the amenities and frig stuff. That unit runs for 13 hours on 4 gal. Both ratings are based upon 1/2 load. Most stuff uses the most power at startup then level off considerably. You gotta do the math and get out the meter to get the real picture of your needs.


I thought you had to leave?
For many people 2,000 is not a possibility. The 300-500 range will give you a lot of flexibility, and let you run small fan or small ac unit in addition to the fridge.

As I said, buy what your budget can afford, because any type of power is better than absolutely none.
Question: Remember how last year the GFS had a GREAT handle on Tropical Cyclone Genesis, why isn't it like that this year? All these ghost storms yet last year, almost all of them were predicted like 2 weeks in advance by GFS first.
1609. CybrTeddy 9:03 PM CDT on June 11, 2009

despite current dogma, climate is not static. different forces are in play from year-to-year and some models handle those forces better than others....just my speculation :)
1611. Ossqss
Quoting zoomiami:


I thought you had to leave?


Yep, did so and am at my secret undisclosed location. Ok, the garage since I was late getting what I was sent to get an over an hour ago. I think the couch has my name on it to night :(

Rule of thumb #3, never offer to pick up that which can be delivered free faster :)
1601. pearlandaggie
Timers... I like that!

I have a 6500W with an efficient OHV engine & big tank. I have run everything on a 3500W, (5 HP - very efficient) generator with only 110V outlet. I even ran the hot water heater, and clothes dryer (rewired, one at a time) off of it. 5 gal/day isn't hard to come by. Freeze up some gallons of water. Turn the temp way down on the fridge a couple of days B4 the storm, & remember to turn off the door heat strip (moisture control) to save the 500w.

BTW one of these will turn a decent computer into a DTV / PVR. 18V will run my laptop (3X6v or a 12v & a 6v deep cycle)very efficiently for a long time.
1606...Thanks Ed.
Quoting ackee:
does that mean the wave near the windward has a chance to develop ?


Uncertain right now but not out of the realm of possibility since shear is expected to be low at the same time in the Caribbean.

Becuz of the necessary but not sufficient conditions for cyclogenesis it's not 100% certain but will be monitored.
1612. HIEXPRESS

5 gal/day isn't hard to come by.

hahaha :) you weren't around here during Ike :) gasoline was gold!

see, i'm *lazy* and like to manage as little as possible! i would also suggest purchasing a small window a/c if you can afford it...it will use MUCH less fuel than central a/c
Just hopped over to the blog entries for this same time last year. Although we had Arthur, it was basically a one day event.

Otherwise, the info was the same then as it is now, "tropics are quiet, still early".

So we are basically the same as last year.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Question: Remember how last year the GFS had a GREAT handle on Tropical Cyclone Genesis, why isn't it like that this year? All these ghost storms yet last year, almost all of them were predicted like 2 weeks in advance by GFS first.


Yeah, I remember the GFS predicted the genesis of Bertha a week or two out.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the yellow color that was move N and out to sea is now this about gone the gap that tampspin spoted that he wass think that the sea temp may be cooling well that gap is gone



Quoting zoomiami:
Just hopped over to the blog entries for this same time last year. Although we had Arthur, it was basically a one day event.

Otherwise, the info was the same then as it is now, "tropics are quiet, still early".

So we are basically the same as last year.


Well to be fair, we didn't have an expected El Nino last year that could potentially develop in time to deter seasonal activity.
Quoting Ossqss:


Yep, did so and am at my secret undisclosed location. Ok, the garage since I was late getting what I was sent to get an over an hour ago. I think the couch has my name on it to night :(

Rule of thumb #3, never offer to pick up that which can be delivered free faster :)

Good rule lol
I think that the aftermath of a storm will be much different here in South Florida than it ever has been. Many new plans have been implemented, most people have shutters now (new construction had to come with shutters).

Grocery stores, drug stores, and gas stations at main population points throughout the county have generator power. I've even seen the generators set up next to the pumping station for the sewage.

Some of the newer red light installations have generators, and solar batteries to help in the case of a large power loss.

Quoting zoomiami:
Sugar, same here. I just have to change out the top track on some of the windows for the lexan panels, they were a little wider than the steel panels.

I figure now we can put up shutters and still look outside, and not get claustrophic. As we have been replacing doors we are installing those rated for hurricanes.

lol - after all the prep we probably won't get another storm for 10 years.


And that's just fine with me. We spent all this money and haven't had a storm...
Yikes! I remember the great GFS forecasting fiasco from late last April!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, I remember the GFS predicted the genesis of Bertha a week or two out.


I remember it also predicted Arthur, Edouard, Paloma, and many more.

The GFS did predict 90L and 91L this year though. I think they both should have been named but close enough.
this is kind of what i had in mind.....note the grounded receptacle......



i know these are generally used for Christmas lights, but they are inexpensive and have a full 15 amp rating (which powers most household appliance)
KoritheMan joine me in the Tropics Talk: chat room i be waiting or you there meet me there
The local Publix in front of my house does not have a generator. And as they threw their bad food out in the back during Francis and Jeanne, so came the rats.
1621. zoomiami

unfortunately, the dolts here in Texas fail to learn from battle-tested Floridians. i don't know ANY gas stations with a backup generator...."It costs too much", i suppose....
As I read the blogs about the various generators I chuckle to myself remembering after the last storm when we cranked up the genny and the neighbour complained about the noise... The complaining stopped as soon as we threw an extension cord over the fence!!! ;-)
Quoting kimoskee:
As I read the blogs about the various generators I chuckle to myself remembering after the last storm when we cranked up the genny and the neighbour complained about the noise... The complaining stopped as soon as we threw an extension cord over the fence!!! ;-)


It's music to my ears.
1631. Ossqss
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1621. zoomiami

unfortunately, the dolts here in Texas fail to learn from battle-tested Floridians. i don't know ANY gas stations with a backup generator...."It costs too much", i suppose....


They made it law in Florida for some of those items. Most sewage stations do have nice ones. Problem will be, how long those remote sites would keep one after a big storm.
1631. Ossqss

i heard that! that's when an AR-15 comes in handy :)
Nice chatting, off to bed for me.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The local Publix in front of my house does not have a generator. And as they threw their bad food out in the back during Francis and Jeanne, so came the rats.

Oh I didn't get hit by Francis by I did get by Frances.Lol:)
40 gal of gas in the boat, can plumb the boat to the generator. Chain the generator down. One dude thought he ran out of gas & when he went to check it, it was gone.
1636. Ossqss
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1631. Ossqss

i heard that! that's when an AR-15 comes in handy :)


With a lazer grip and beta clip !
If that blob ova test hit the GOM, we could have sum problems
1635. HIEXPRESS

that's a good point...i TOTALLY forgot about the ~150 gals of gas i keep in my boat! thanks!
1640. Ossqss
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
40 gal of gas in the boat, can plumb the boat to the generator. Chain the generator down. One dude thought he ran out of gas & when he went to check it, it was gone.


Interesting point to share. I appoached the car manufacturers about being able to tap the 50 gallons I have in my cars and they would not budge on letting me alter the access. They said it is Fed law.
Quoting zoomiami:
Nice chatting, off to bed for me.
Night Zoo, time for me to walk the dogs. Nite all.
Quoting zoomiami:
Just hopped over to the blog entries for this same time last year. Although we had Arthur, it was basically a one day event.

Otherwise, the info was the same then as it is now, "tropics are quiet, still early".

So we are basically the same as last year.
enjoy it july and then august yet to come
The last few storms I lost cable/broadband instantly, and the copper pair for phone & dialup about 3 days later as the phone company just let the batteries run down in the corner D/A box.
alright, i'm out, too! have a good evening :)
1645. Ossqss
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1636. Ossqss

my dear friend, there are no laser grips for the AR-15! :) the lasers and tactical flashlights are mounted on the sides of the forward rails, leaving the top for red dot sights! LOL


Not on all of them :)
1640. Ossqss
Owning a piece of hose (Georgia credit card) is against federal law?
DTV transition in less than an hour and twenty minutes.
1648. Ossqss
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
1640. Ossqss
Owning a piece of hose (Georgia credit card) is against federal law?


Can't do it. The tanks have pressure and obstructions. Anti-syphon law

If you want it you will need to get it, post pump, from the cars fuel line.

Not something most need to try.
1648. Ossqss
Well, motor fuels are hazardous. Obviously, it's not recommended to circumvent your vehicles safety systems. ;)
GN
You guys talking generators should hear our 3 MW diesel at the office. Complaints pour in from up to a mile away when that baby fires up. Cannot stand within
100 feet of it without hearing potection...not policy, just hurts
Quoting Tazmanian:
at last new toys added to the blog



and theirs some new "thingy" scrolling in the top right hand of my page:)....and good evening everyone!!!,shears dropping,there's a mjo pulse moving into the region,t-waves transitioning the ITCZ into the carib...chances of a TC before the end of the month are 70-80%,IMO....
Quoting gordydunnot:
Could that Co2 plot have anything to do with volcanic activity. I only ask because that area seems to be the most sighted area for Co2 levels.I'm not trying to stir the pot just asking why this is the main sight. I do think there is gw although.


A fair question! Actually the total emissions from volcanoes around the world is around 200 million tons of CO2 annually. In 2003 anthropogenic CO2 emissions were 26.8 billion tons q.v. Link

By 2007 total anthropogenic CO2 emissions had reached 30 billion tons annually. So man-made emissions are 150 times volcanic emissions. Mauna Loa is not downwind of Kiluea, the most active volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, and is 9,000 feet higher than Kiluea, which has lava flows but typically no explosive eruptions like in Mount St. Helens. And no volcanic activity we know of would account for steadily rising CO2 levels like this decades-long trend:



Note how even Mount Pinatubo did not make a detectable effect on the trend.
Link



can any one make this out???
Quoting Tazmanian:
Link



can any one make this out???


Server not found
Quoting Tazmanian:
Link



can any one make this out???


Once you fix the link...and then click on the English word at the top to convert it from Japanese... its the Japanese Met Agency


Use this link instead
But on a more positive note, 6% of the way through the hurricane season and all is well!
Quoting Vortex95:
DTV transition in less than an hour and twenty minutes.

Actually it happens at 1pm EST tomorrow ....Link
hows the SOI doing
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
But on a more positive note, 6% of the way through the hurricane season and all is well!


Well.. We've already had 1 TD so Idk about that.
Well no named storms yet cybrteddy, and the TD was a fish anyway ;)
Could y'all do me a favor? The blog list says there is a comment on my blog, but it wont show me what the comment says, or who posted it. Cam anyone check out the comment on my blog and say who made it and what was said?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Could y'all do me a favor? The blog list says there is a comment on my blog, but it wont show me what the comment says, or who posted it. Cam anyone check out the comment on my blog and say who made it and what was said?


I mailed it to you
Quoting Orcasystems:


1. GulfScotsman 3:42 AM GMT on June 12, 2009 Hide this comment.

Action: Quote | Ignore User


What!? GS is lurking around here?!
if you really want to survive a major hurricane catastrophe, here is my recommendation (not all-inclusive):
1. dried food like Lipton Rice dishes and dried fruit
2. 100 gals. of purified water frozen as ice
3. 50 gals. of gasoline
4. 5 kW+ gasoline generator with several extension cords and timers to manage electrical loads
5. 300 feet of 3/8" rope for roof and other temporary repairs
6. 8000 Btu/hr window a/c for family comfort at night
7. Size C and D batteries
8. 3-5 large tarps (as large as you can find) for plugging roof holes
9. $1000 in small bill cash for consumables you can purchase
10. 12-gauge shotgun w/ 100 rounds or AR-15 w/ 200 rounds (to protect your family, food, fuel, and generator)

i'm sure there are other great things folks can recommend...this is just a starting point for discussion.

if you're offended by this post, please disregard..........
Quoting pearlandaggie:
if you really want to survive a major hurricane catastrophe, here is my recommendation (not all-inclusive):
1. dried food like Lipton Rice dishes and dried fruit
2. 100 gals. of purified water frozen as ice
3. 50 gals. of gasoline
4. 5 kW+ gasoline generator with several extension cords and timers to manage electrical loads
5. 300 feet of 3/8" rope for roof and other temporary repairs
6. 8000 Btu/hr window a/c for family comfort at night
7. Size C and D batteries
8. 3-5 large tarps (as large as you can find) for plugging roof holes
9. $1000 in small bill cash for consumables you can purchase
10. 12-gauge shotgun w/ 100 rounds or AR-15 w/ 200 rounds (to protect your family, food, fuel, and generator)

i'm sure there are other great things folks can recommend...this is just a starting point for discussion.

if you're offended by this post, please disregard..........


A block of dry ice.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


A block of dry ice.


Why is it most people need a gun?
Self defence from your neighbours?
1666. SavannahStorm

ABSOLUTELY, my friend! or how about 5 blocks of dry ice, if you can get it :)
1667. Orcasystems

Sir, with the utmost respect, you should have seen the area after Rita (although we didn't receive a direct hit) and Ike...law enforcement was paralyzed. You could only rely upon yourself for security. Personally, I'm actually quite ignorant of the let-others-defend-you and non-self-reliance attitude...maybe you could help me understand why my positions are ignorant.......
Well in 1947 a hurricane churning out to sea was seeded with 80 pounds of crushed dry ice, changed direction, heading WSW and hit 15 miles south of Savannah as a surprise Cat 2 hurricane. Sustained winds in Savannah hit 85 mph. A true Savannah Storm!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Why is it most people need a gun?
Self defence from your neighbours?
well ya need it if some ones got one and planning on robbing you because they have nothing and you do have something
I have butcher knifes?
1672. Vortex95

butcher knives are better than nothing! LOL

*i used to be a butcher! LOL*
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1667. Orcasystems

Sir, with the utmost respect, you should have seen the area after Rita (although we didn't receive a direct hit) and Ike...law enforcement was paralyzed. You could only rely upon yourself for security. Personally, I'm actually quite ignorant of the let-others-defend-you and non-self-reliance attitude...maybe you could help me understand why my positions are ignorant.......


I didn't say it was ignorant?
I just don't understand it? I would bet that of the 29 houses in our Strata area.. maybe 5 of us have weapons.. and all 5 are ex/active military or RCMP.

The thought that I would have to defend myself, my family or my neighbours in the event of a natural disaster is just ludicrous up here. I am going to have to say its a completely different social mentality in Canada.

That being said.. KOG is in or close to Toronto.. again a different mentality over there also.
i got two 3 foot swords from japan i payed 800 dollars for the pair of them along with two axes
Just stepped in. Can anyone update me on the Caribbean disturbance? Any chance for development? If so, when? Thanks
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i got two 3 foot swords from japan i payed 800 dollars for the pair of them along with two axes


KOG.. do you think you would actually need a weapon to protect yourself in the event of a natural disaster.. even in Toronto?
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG.. do you think you would actually need a weapon to protect yourself in the event of a natural disaster.. even in Toronto?

All I have to say is Katrina...people definitely needed to protect themselves...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I didn't say it was ignorant?
I just don't understand it? I would bet that of the 29 houses in our Strata area.. maybe 5 of us have weapons.. and all 5 are ex/active military or RCMP.

The thought that I would have to defend myself, my family or my neighbours in the event of a natural disaster is just ludicrous up here. I am going to have to say its a completely different social mentality in Canada.


I have noted this much more turstworthy society in Canada i'm not sure why but here people are just far less trusting, i.e. media in the U.S. is negatively charged (love talking about crime and tragedy especially local news), amoungst other complex societal issues. Btw Orca just Curious do you lock your front door?
1674. Orcasystems

hey, i didn't say YOU were ignorant...i said I was ignorant. the images of armed robbers marauding through the streets of New Orleans was enough to convince me to take care of my family. Police forces for all their greatness have never *prevented* a crime, only responded to it afterward. i completely hope that i have in my possession an AR-15 with 1,000 rounds that i NEVER have to use...otherwise, it's a REALLY BAD DAY IN PEARLAND,TX!!
Unfornately people act totally differnet when disaster occurs....seen it in Homestead myself and yes even the purest of people that live in Canada, some would become animals also....Hard to believe for some im sure!
i don't know anymore orca the past couple of years been gettin rough here in the city just yesterday a group of 3 mugged an 80 year old woman behind my building they used such force they broke her hip spineless cowards there has been at least three or four gunplay incidents and sept of last year one of my tentants got shot in the back lost a kidney only 18 most of it is gang related i guess

so the anwser is at the moment it may not be a bad idea to have something just in case
Quoting Vortex95:


I have noted this much more turstworthy society in Canada i'm not sure why but here people are just far less trusting, i.e. media in the U.S. is negatively charged (love talking about crime and tragedy especially local news), amoungst other complex societal issues. Btw Orca just Curious do you lock your front door?


Standard door lock.. no extra dead locks.. no locking bars. Standard sliding door lock for the back.. nothing fancy.

Front door is locked when we are not home.. or asleep... the rest of the time it is not.
1683. Orcasystems

I truly long for the day when it is the same in Texas...however, I will NEVER trade my right to bear arms for supposed government-guaranteed security.
Wait--what about my short sleeve shirts--and hanging in trunks in our pool? No right to bare arms! No way!
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Just stepped in. Can anyone update me on the Caribbean disturbance? Any chance for development? If so, when? Thanks


IT WILL TURN INTO A CAT 6 AND SLAM INTO FL BY THE WEEKEND.
alright, i have to go to work in the morning...see you then!
as for locks on my doors i have standard lock with two slide bolts on front door back door has standard lock with dead bolt at top sliding bar in middle also have adt alarm on doors and windows as well monitored 24 7 365
Quoting Orcasystems:


I didn't say it was ignorant?
I just don't understand it? I would bet that of the 29 houses in our Strata area.. maybe 5 of us have weapons.. and all 5 are ex/active military or RCMP.

The thought that I would have to defend myself, my family or my neighbours in the event of a natural disaster is just ludicrous up here. I am going to have to say its a completely different social mentality in Canada.

That being said.. KOG is in or close to Toronto.. again a different mentality over there also.


Providence, RI had all the same riots, rapes, robberies, etc. after the 1938 hurricane. A real mini NOLA-immediately-after-Katrina in the now-liberal New England, imagine that.

Under the right circumstances the not-so-right folks among us that are coherent enough to recognize that any police force is well stretched and communication is impossible may come out to play in what ever way they see fit.

Trusting that all of my neighbors are not of this affliction, that the police could respond quickly, and that I could successfully contact them is asking a lot. Not even after little old Gustav, 60 miles NE from the landfall point, could I have called the police if I wanted to for a good 36 hours afterward.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i don't know anymore orca the past couple of years been gettin rough here in the city just yesterday a group of 3 mugged an 80 year old woman behind my building they used such force they broke her hip spineless cowards there has been at least three or four gunplay incidents and sept of last year one of my tentants got shot in the back lost a kidney only 18 most of it is gang related i guess

so the anwser is at the moment it may not be a bad idea to have something just in case


Vancouver is pretty bad now a days also.. thats the nice thing about the Island.. no real gangs. Even the Hells Angels have a vacation spot up Island, and never come close to causing problems.

I guess its because of Victoria... very laid back... and you know there is going to be at least one active or retired Military guy in every neighbourhood. Heck, we are even used as a International example and training program for Neighbourhood watch (Sydney Australia Police were here for two weeks to copy the system)
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Just stepped in. Can anyone update me on the Caribbean disturbance? Any chance for development? If so, when? Thanks


NO i don't think so.....if so your looking 5-7 days out before anything gets going.
orca you have mail and thanks for answering. In the U.S. if you were to go 1000 houses at 2 p.m. and all said houses had people in them 999 out of a 1000 would have their front door locked generally, some areas of course may be more lax.
Y'all do us all a favor and hit the "-" on youknowwhat.
Toronto seemed fantastically clean when we've visited there. But still very American. We like the 'real' Canada in Quebec province. ;)
THANKS ATMOAGGIE FOR THE COMPLIMENT
When it is all said and done... I do own weapons, and would not have a second thought about using them. I would just be absolutely shocked if it happened.
Quoting slickasatick:
I SUGGEST THE NHC ISSUE A HYPERCANE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EVACUATE EVERYONE ABOVE THE 5 DEGREE PARALLEL TO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.


you shall be evacuated into my poof list and to never leave.
THANKS VORTEX95. WELL TAKEN FRIEND
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Toronto seemed fantastically clean when we've visited there. But still very American. We like the 'real' Canada in Quebec province.


Oh that was bad.. really bad... now I know why I have a gun :)
I THINK WE WILL SEE 5 NAMED STORMS THIS SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC.
Is there a way they can see if the same person is posting under the same IP address and ban that IP?
*laughs* I'm joking around--had to do it :)
StSimonsIslandGAGuy still clean just getting over run by the out of control gun carring punks and we can not seem to stop it its just getting worse and worse everyday when i first moved to toronto it was so nice here you could sleep with your doors unlocked shootings and such were unheard of but times are changing and fast
Doesn't your IP change every time you turn on your computer?
Quoting Vortex95:
orca you have mail and thanks for answering. In the U.S. if you were to go 1000 houses at 2 p.m. and all said houses had people in them 999 out of a 1000 would have their front door locked generally, some areas of course may be more lax.


I know the big citys are probably like that... heck in our little Strata area... not only would they not be locked.. but if someone came over.. they would just give a quick knock on the door...and walk in.
You can always hack to find the i.p. but the gov'ment say that illegal. I'm sure though, there are more viable ways.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Doesn't your IP change every time you turn on your computer?

Most change once a month on average...like our cable co here in Fl, dunno about the rest...
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Doesn't your IP change every time you turn on your computer?


NOpe you can reset it everytime you log on but not automatically i don't think.....YOu can do a manual reset tho.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Doesn't your IP change every time you turn on your computer?


It can.....
The only way to semi track it is to track the MAC address... but that can be spoofed also.
KeeperoftheGate, that's too bad. Really. Toronto seemed like a great, fun city.

I seriously liked Quebec City the best--the Frontenac was one of the best places we've ever stayed, and such a pretty city on a hill.

However the winters would kill us. We have not had -10C weather for 24 years.
THREATENING TO HACK PEOPLES IP ADDRESS WILL GET YOU A BAN. BTW I HAVEN'T NAMED CALLED ANYONE AT ALL. IF YOU DONT LIKE MY POSTS ACT LIKE AN ADULT AND IGNORE ME. THANK YOU.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know the big citys are probably like that... heck in our little Strata area... not only would they not be locked.. but if someone came over.. they would just give a quick knock on the door...and walk in.


would you consider suburban areas to be part of cities?
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOpe you can reset it everytime you log on but not automatically i don't think.....YOu can do a manual reset tho.


Just do this:

ipconfig /release
ipconfig /renew

Interesting--I pick up a lot of stuff about computers working in a library, but never bothered to do IP changing. Seems like a bother.
There should be a waiting period for membership for at least 24 hours bf they send your confirm code...
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOpe you can reset it everytime you log on but not automatically i don't think.....YOu can do a manual reset tho.


THANKS FOR THE SUGGESTION BUD
Quoting Orcasystems:


Just do this:

ipconfig /release
ipconfig /renew



wasnt that what i said, you could do it manually? Does that make it auto then?
Quoting Orcasystems:
When it is all said and done... I do own weapons, and would not have a second thought about using them. I would just be absolutely shocked if it happened.
thats like myself orca my first response would be to help first clean up get everything back to normal if a diaster stuck i think most people would i hope
i have a degree in troll removal
Quoting Vortex95:


would you consider suburban areas to be part of cities?


No, and around here they are all sort of individual areas. Victoria proper is actually quite small.. the small surrounding bedroom communities (Langford,Colwood, Highlands) are individual geographical areas in their own right...
HANSEN FROM NOAA SHOULD BE FIRED AND IMPRISONED FOR DELIBERATELY MAKING UP FAKE DATA TO SUPPORT THE GLOBAL WARMING AGENDA.
I've often thought that blogging should be reserved for the paid members, would make things much more serious.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have a degree in troll removal


TELL ME WHERE THEY ARE AND ILL ZAP THEM TO BAN LAND
Quoting TampaSpin:


wasnt that what i said, you could do it manually? Does that make it auto then?


You can actually set the time in the command or put it into a .bat file. I believe the standard is three days.

We live with no cities with a population of over 20,000 within 80 miles / 130 kilometers.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I've often thought that blogging should be reserved for the paid members, would make things much more serious.


MORE LIKE AN INFRINGEMENT ON FREEDOM OF SPEECH. OH RIGHT, THE USA HAS TAKEN AWAY MUCH OF THAT ANYWAYS.
Quoting Orcasystems:


No, and around here they are all sort of individual areas. Victoria proper is actually quite small.. the small surrounding bedroom communities (Langford,Colwood, Highlands) are individual geographical areas in their own right...

I was surprised to find out palm trees grow there....
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I've often thought that blogging should be reserved for the paid members, would make things much more serious.


I think that would take the fun out of it :)
I am a member and so is SWMBO, but thats just to support the site... if I HAD to be a paid member, I probably would not.
slickasatick
your about to be replaced with empty space just like whats in your head

are you out yet must be time to go get another 20 piece on the corner
Those are a kind of palm tree that grows in mountainous regions of southeastern China. They've been planted further north than that, in the Scottish Hebridies, and the Faeroe Islands.
iam a paid member as well so it don't matter to me really
All these blog posts disappearing. Hmmmm. Ticks do suck, don't they!
Sea level has been rising globally since the late 1700s. This rise has accelerated in recent decades, thanks to increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets due to a warmer climate, plus the fact that warmer oceans are less dense and expand, further increasing sea level. Though sea level rise appears to have slowed over the past five years, it will significantly accelerate if the climate warms the 2 - 3°C it is expected to this century. If these forecasts of a warmer world prove accurate, higher sea levels will be a formidable challenge for millions of people world-wide during the last half of this century. Sea level rise represents one of my personal top two climate change concerns (drought is the other). I'll present a series of blog posts over the coming months focusing on at-risk areas in the U.S., Caribbean, and world-wide. Today, I focus on the observed sea level rise since the Ice Age.

HOW ABOUT NOT DOING ANY MORE BLOG SERIES ON GLOBAL WARMING AND STICKING TO TROPICAL WEATHER. I CANT BELIEVE YOU COULD FALL FOR SUCH A SCAM.
Anyone,do you know why Winston Churchill was frequently drunk on his trans-Atlantic crossings?
Well I was thinking that trolls would not want to pay to get their kicks causing trouble.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
slickasatick
your about to be replaced with empty space just like whats in your head

are you out yet must be time to go get another 20 piece on the corner


THANK YOU FRIEND. ITS ALWAYS NICE TO KNOW SOMEONE CARES FOR MY POSTS
Quoting Vortex95:
Anyone,do you know why Winston Churchill was frequently drunk on his trans-Atlantic crossings?


EVERYTHING YOU WERE TAUGHT IN HISTORY IS A LIE. THEY MAKE THINGS UP TO SHAPE YOUR BELIEFS ON HISTORY
1694. slickasatick

yeah, gonna have to hide this moron as i can barely take the pro-gorebull warming BS from Doc. Masters. i guess my piddly engineering degree cannot possible allow me to comprehend the supposed level of planetary destruction wrought by those evil CO2 emissions. the funny thing is that if the gracious Doc decided to fairly present both sides of the argument, I think I could more easily handle the bias...I realize this is TOO much to ask.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Those are a kind of palm tree that grows in mountainous regions of southeastern China. They've been planted further north than that, in the Scottish Hebridies, and the Faeroe Islands.
Windmills I think they are called...I have seen them up to Virginia...
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I was surprised to find out palm trees grow there....


ROFLMAO, we have one on the deck by the pond. The climate in Victoria has to be seen to be believed... its was 104 here a couple weeks ago.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1694. slickasatick

yeah, gonna have to hide this moron as i can barely take the pro-gorebull warming BS from Doc. Masters. i guess my piddly engineering degree cannot possible allow me to comprehend the supposed level of planetary destruction wrought by those evil CO2 emissions. the funny thing is that if the gracious Doc decided to fairly present both sides of the argument, I think I could more easily handle the bias...I realize this is TOO much to ask.



THE NUMBER ONE WAY YOU CAN TELL GLOBAL WARMING IS A SCAM IS THAT THEY ALWAYS ONLY PRESENT ONE SIDE OF THE ARGUMENT THEN WILLINGLY LIE AND SAY THERE IS A CONSENSUS WHEN THERE IS NOT.
Trolls are everywhere even in paid things. My cousin uses a blog that costs $50 a month for new job listings to the minute in his area and there are people that somehow still get on there and write the most ugly stuff on there. One blogger specifially made it a point to all the job seekers losers after every post, quite odd.
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, we have one on the deck by the pond. The climate in Victoria has to be seen to be believed... its was 104 here a couple weeks ago.

I really want to visit your island when I get my act together...from the photos it looks awesome...
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We live with no cities with a population of over 20,000 within 80 miles / 130 kilometers.
20,000 toronto had 5 million as of 2000 9 years ago so i figure we are now at 6 i would guess if not more
Quoting Vortex95:
Trolls are everywhere even in paid things. My cousin uses a blog that costs $50 a month for new job listings to the minute in his area and there are people that somehow still get on there and write the most ugly stuff on there. One blogger specifially made it a point to all the job seekers losers after every post, quite odd.


TROLLS ARE EVERYWHERE. UNDER OUR BEDS, IN THE CLOSET, IN THE CAR, IN AL GORES BATHROOM...ETC
1744. Thats nuts Orca it rarely gets over 95 here. Then again it rarely gets under 40 either. I love S Fla :).
Here is the palm that grows in Vancouver and Scotland and the Faeroe Islands. It also grows in Norway and the Alaska banana belt around Anette, AK:

Link
Quoting Vortex95:
1744. Thats nuts Orca it rarely gets over 95 here. Then again it rarely gets under 40 either. I love S Fla :).


This year:

Maximum Temperature
+40.2 °C at 16:31 on 03 June

Minimum Temperature
-5.1 °C at 02:47 on 10 March
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Here is the palm that grows in Vancouver and Scotland and the Faeroe Islands. It also grows in Norway and the Alaska banana belt around Anette, AK:

Link


Thats what we have.. good guess :)
Oh great troll season has started -_- or rather I should say its in about full swing -_-
Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

1. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
2. Stay on topic.
3. No monomania.
4. No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
5. Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
6. No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
8. No spamming.
9. No spamming.
10. Seriously, no spamming
. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.


I DOUBT MANY READ THE RULES PAGE. BECAUSE MANY HAVE ALREADY BROKEN SOME OF THESE. INCLUDING THE GLOBAL WARMING THREAD. GW IS SPAM IN AND OF ITSELF
K, I am out of here... I have to work Friday :(
Statistics Canada:

Link
I SHOULD LABEL HANSEN AND AL GORE AS TROLLS. THREATS TO SOCIETY.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Here is the palm that grows in Vancouver and Scotland and the Faeroe Islands. It also grows in Norway and the Alaska banana belt around Anette, AK:

Link
....I read somewhere that they are planting a hardy orange tree in SE Georgia for cultivation...
Troll season hasn't hit critical until some smart alec posts naughty stuff were it should not be.
later all see ya tommorow have a good night
TampaSpin I hadn't heard that--though it is possible. I bet in 20 years all the Florida orange groves will be made subdivisions. Lots of citrus grow quite nicely on the barrier islands from Charleston south--we have a Meyer lemon tree in our yard that handled 22 last winter very well. Inland southwest Georgia gets into the mid/upper teens 1 or 2 times in a normal winter. I'm heading out but email me the link if you have it.
Quoting Vortex95:
Troll season hasn't hit critical until some smart alec posts naughty stuff were it should not be.


TELL ME WHERE THE TROLLS ARE AND ILL SWIPE THEM TO BANDOM
your the troll wack yourself
night all including you to troll
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your the troll wack yourself


WHERE IS THE TROLL KEEPER? I THINK HE WENT LEFT
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
night all including you to troll


WHY THANK YOU KEEPER. GOOD NIGHT TO YOU TOO! ILL BAKE YOU UP SOME TROLL BAIT FOR MORNING.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats like myself orca my first response would be to help first clean up get everything back to normal if a diaster stuck i think most people would i hope


Evening all. Not all people think that way unfortunately. :( I'm going to try to keep this short. Hubby told me not to go on a rant. Lol. I guess it would depend on your neighbors. The two big ones we've had recently, I could write a story and title it " A Tale of Two Storms" or "A Tale of two neighborhoods" After Rita we had the kind of neighbors one might want to use a fire arm against. But as much as that sucked, and boy did it ever, oddly it turned out for the best. Because for the frst time ever we do live in a neighborhood where everyone would do anything for the other. We've helped each other through 2 hurricanes. Everyone doing what we can. Its great! But yes, disasters do bring out the worst in some people. Never doubt that. I guess the best you can do is concentrate on the positives. Ok, I'm done now. Lol.
Morning all ^_^ troll's gone and replaced with empty space ^_^ also now that we're in the digital age I just realized that my laptop's video card will work :) but not the old style handheld tv I have :(

Just letting everyone in the US on this site know since anyone with a handheld analog TV in their hurricane supply list might not want to be stuck without any news
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
....I read somewhere that they are planting a hardy orange tree in SE Georgia for cultivation...
Satsuma - a form of tangerine, grows in South Georgia and North Florida. It's quite tasty, but not very pretty visually. Best found at farmers markets and private fruit stands.

Haven't seen anything on big commercial plantings. But, then I don't read the newspapers much. And farmers being an independent sort of businessman wouldn't be likely to put out a press release.
1771. viman
Good Morning everyone -- Hmmm
Lets break into song -- All the blobs are gone and the skiy is grey......
When ocean temperature is mentioned as relevant to the rise in ocean level, is this because of the expansion of the warmer water? Is there a coefficient associated with this?
Thank you.
morning
the g/mex, caribean and the atlantic are very quiet this morning. in the caribbean abundant cloudiness abound ,as a result of an upper level trough. pressures are still low in the southwestern caibbean ,but vertical wind shear continues to be hostile and will preclude any tropical development for the next few days. looking at the shear tendecy maps this morning, indications are that shear is relaxing in most of the MDR and conditions for cyclogeesis will become favourable the next few days. the tropical wave east of the windward islands has lost some of it's convection and will only bring showers and occaisional thunder showers to these islands late tonight into tomorrow sat
the g/mex is devoid of any significant convection
Good Morning Folks....Nothing shaking in the tropical Atlantic due to unfavorable shear conditions this am (as would normally be expected in June) but a few areas look interesting in the E-Pac.....With the usual "inverse" relationship between E-Pac vs. Atlantic activity, things could remain quiet on the Atlantic until things quiet down a bit in the E-Pac....Gotta wait for the MJO to slide over to the Atlantic I suppose and for sheer to drop...It has been dropping a little bit in the Western Caribbean over last few days so I suppose we will be watching the long-range models for hints of possible development over the next two weeks.........Have a great weekend and Dr. M should be posting his 2nd half of June outlook later today...I would suspect that he will probably come in around a 30% chance of a storm on the Atlantic side during the end of June...
time to recycle that old battery operated tv. no atlantic invest today
shear dropping in the tropical alt g/mex and thr
e caribbean
Link
just re read dr masters post said population is expected to double by 2050 personally i doubt it. nature has a way to control over population disease.
1780. Patrap
Pat
i dont think that link is working, least not for me

ok now it is
Flare up SE of Jamaica again.
1785. Patrap

HUD grants Texas nearly $2 billion for Ike, Gustav
San Antonio Business Journal


San Antonio > News
Thursday, June 11, 2009,


The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development will release an additional $1.7 billion worth of emergency disaster aid to Texas to support ongoing assistance for Hurricane Ike and Gustav relief efforts.

The money can be used for infrastructure and housing revitalization in areas affected by these two hurricanes. Gustav and Ike made landfall in Texas last fall.

The money will support the state’s long-term disaster recovery efforts. Texas and local communities may use the funds to buy out homeowners living in high-risk areas, provide relocation assistance to encourage residents to move to safer locations, pay for home improvements such as property elevation and reinforcements, draft land-use plans that reduce development in high-risk areas, and improve and enforce building codes.

The latest funding is in addition to the $1.3 billion HUD allocated last year to Texas through its Community Development Block Grant Program.
it looks like a neutral/weak el nino in the making




Link
On site and working, watch the webcam!
Quoting stoormfury:
it looks like a neutral/weak el nino in the making




Link


I don't know man, that top image you posted looks like a re-strengthening of La-Nina conditions with cooler waters expanding to the south. My bets are on Cool Neutral.
yes CaneWhisperer i was only cautious in not coming the the conclusion you came to, concerning a la nina. will wait for anther week to come to any conclusion
Quoting stoormfury:
yes CaneWhisperer i was only cautious in not coming the the conclusion you came to, concerning a la nina. will wait for anther week to come to any conclusion


That is a rather large cool pool, I would think they would at least mention it in the Monday ENSO update.
Looking at that satellite loop, the TUTT is firmly entrenched and the environment is very hostil.
Quoting stoormfury:
it looks like a neutral/weak el nino in the making




Link




like hello we are in neutral have t you been following dr m blog?? we are now in neutral and by june- july will be in weak el nino stronger one by winter
A lot of the warmer energy above will transfer into the Caribbean over time, as it is doing now. The Nino region feeds from the south.
1794. Sh0cK
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Pat
i dont think that link is working, least not for me


The links work, you just have to wait a few for it to load.
yes taz i have always rea Dr Masters' blog but ealier sst animation showed warmer waters off the SA coast
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I don't know man, that top image you posted looks like a re-strengthening of La-Nina conditions with cooler waters expanding to the south. My bets are on Cool Neutral.


You can't say that.......LOL.....I have been saying the same thing for about 2 weeks also...i just don't think a strong El Nino is in the making now.
Get ready for your bashing! Everytime i suggested that it was like a war was breaking out.......LOL
Morning Everyone
Quoting stoormfury:
yes taz i have always rea Dr Masters' blog but ealier sst animation showed warmer waters off the SA coast



oh ok sorry
LOok how the warmer waters are retreating west....HUM
Norbrook, St. Andrew, Jamaica.

Met office has the island under flash flood warnings again. Not sure what's up - it's beautiful blue skies and sunshine at my location.

I thought the system was moving away from Jamaica?
Quoting TampaSpin:


You can't say that.......LOL.....I have been saying the same thing for about 2 weeks also...i just don't think a strong El Nino is in the making now.
Get ready for your bashing! Everytime i suggested that it was like a war was breaking out.......LOL


I stand by what I am looking at currently.
Quoting TampaSpin:


You can't say that.......LOL.....I have been saying the same thing for about 2 weeks also...i just don't think a strong El Nino is in the making now.
Get ready for your bashing! Everytime i suggested that it was like a war was breaking out.......LOL


Plus, I live with 3 women, I can stand up to a lot of Flack my friend, lol.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Plus, I live with 3 women, I can stand up to a lot of Flack my friend, lol.


Heck you got a herem.......LOL
Tampa what are you saying are you El nino it self? LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Heck you got a herem.......LOL


Wife, Mother-In Law and 2 year old daughter, love them all to death.
1807. NEwxguy
GM, all.2" of rain during the night,lot of flooded streets this morning.
I think we've just hit an ebb in the over all rise of ENSO. Check out what is under the surface..
Quoting stoormfury:
Tampa what are you saying are you El nino it self? LOL


I'm not sure we will get much past Nuetral before La Nina comes back again is what im saying...Black Crow coming im sure....I have been watching this for some time.....The Calving Wave did occur and many think the next will bring El Nino then....i think it will do just the opposite...and keep us in Nuetral because of the Cooler Central Pacific....
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2

Quoting kimoskee:
Norbrook, St. Andrew, Jamaica.

Met office has the island under flash flood warnings again. Not sure what's up - it's beautiful blue skies and sunshine at my location.

I thought the system was moving away from Jamaica?
Looks to be making up again to the SE of Jam.
1812. Ossqss
So how do you all think the dancing ENSO item is affecting the modeling?
from what i am seeing and what you are seeing Tampa it is quite possible that the 2009 numbers could be revised come august. what is amazing is that with the forecast of warmer pacific waters the cyclonic activity in the Epac has yet to kick off despite almost one month into the season
Quoting stoormfury:
from what i am seeing and what you are seeing Tampa it is quite possible that the 2009 numbers could be revised come august. what is amazing is that with the forecast of warmer pacific waters the cyclonic activity in the Epac has yet to kick off despite almost one month into the season


CMC is indicating one or two in EPAC on the present run.
Quoting Skyepony:
I think we've just hit an ebb in the over all rise of ENSO. Check out what is under the surface..


Ebb or not we'll see in time. There is a lot of cooler waters along the SA coast and expanding.
Good morning all

Shear still rules the Caribbean and the upper level trough has dug pretty deep into the basin.

The surface trough is no longer evident and certainly no surface low. Back to square one.

This morning's Quikscat pass


SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks to be making up again to the SE of Jam.


When did that happen??? Looks like Dom Rep is going to get clobbered again!
I knew it, the central Atlantic tropical wave could not maintain its convective activity without the aid of the diffluent flow caused by the deformation zone.

Poof

Ironically, its vorticity has increased.



1820. IKE
Also, wind shear is decreasing in the central Caribbean. Good LLC and ULD in that area....

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Ebb or not we'll see in time. There is a lot of cooler waters along the SA coast and expanding.


I'm not saying El Nino won't come, just maybe not in time to affect peak season as conditions lag. Lack of tropical activity, upwelling, in the EPAC & WPAC may keep that warm water right where it is for a period of time. Toss a couple canes down there to mix things up and you have a different story, IMO.
1822. DDR
Quoting futuremet:
I knew it, the central Atlantic tropical wave could not maintain its convective activity without the aid of the diffluent flow caused by the deformation zone.

Poof

Ironically, its vorticity has increased.




I guess we'll have to wait another week for rain,this is turning out to be one of the driest june for us here in Trinidad.
IKe:it'll just be a matter of days,shear has dropped 20-30kts over a large area,most values over the west carib now 20-30kts,once its down around 10-20kts,it should be showtime w/a wetter than average 2nd half of june over the basin,IMO...sound familar???(end of may was wet,begining was dry),if this trend continues to amplify over the season,we should get atleast 2 or 3 majors,IMO
1824. WxLogic
Morning...
Thank you everybody for the updates!

Hi Wx Logic!
Quoting Catherdr:
Satsuma - a form of tangerine, grows in South Georgia and North Florida. It's quite tasty, but not very pretty visually. Best found at farmers markets and private fruit stands.

Haven't seen anything on big commercial plantings. But, then I don't read the newspapers much. And farmers being an independent sort of businessman wouldn't be likely to put out a press release.
Good morning.
RE:growing oranges in GA and SC
There were indigenous orange groves along the SC coast at one time. Not sure how tasty the oranges were. Orange Street downtown Charleston was a naturally occurring orange grove and there is an Orange Grove Road in the West Ashley area (across the river from downtown Charleston).
Again, not sure how tasty or large they were.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 12, 2009 ISSUED 10:00 A.M. EDT


Nice synopsis Storm...."heat buildup" is one of the operative issues....The later the real season "starts", the more potential for a few real intense storms...
Looks like an AOI has formed just south of the Mexican border:

1831. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning.
RE:growing oranges in GA and SC
There were indigenous orange groves along the SC coast at one time. Not sure how tasty the oranges were. Orange Street downtown Charleston was a naturally occurring orange grove and there is an Orange Grove Road in the West Ashley area (across the river from downtown Charleston).
Again, not sure how tasty or large they were.


I have a satsuma tree in my front yard! They are about the size of a tangerine, but when full-ripe they still have a little bit of yellow in the rind. The fruit also takes a long time to ripen- though it may look ready around Thanksgiving, the taste is still bitter. We usually pick ours around New Year's when they are the sweetest and juiciest.

One amazing thing about the satsuma tree is how productive it is. Our small tree (no more than 15 feet tall) produced over 100 fruit one year. We had so many flowers this year we may have even more!