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Sea Ice Extent in Antarctica Bottoming Out at Lowest on Record

By: Bob Henson 5:50 PM GMT on March 03, 2017

As summer draws to a close across the Southern Hemisphere, the extent of sea ice ringing Antarctica has fallen to the lowest values ever observed in satellite records dating back to 1979. On Wednesday, March 1, the daily extent data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) showed 2,109,000 square kilometers of Antarctic sea ice, its lowest value on record. That value nudged up slightly on Thursday, but a more useful measure, the five-day rolling average, hit its lowest value yet on Thursday (see Figure 1 below). Update: The five-day average fell even lower on Friday, March 3, dropping from 2,113,000 to 2,106,000 sq. km.

We can expect the regular autumn rebound in southern ice to kick in very soon now. However, this has been a notably persistent melt season--one that wouldn’t take too much longer to break a record for tardiness. If Thursday’s five-day average turns out to be the lowest for the summer, it will be tied with March 2, 1991 for third-latest minimum behind March 6, 1986 and March 3, 2003.

“It could start trending upward any day,” sea ice expert Walt Meier (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) told me on Thursday. “Of course, this year has been rather unusual, so it would not surprise me to see it going into unprecedented territory.”


Figure 1. Sea ice extent for the five-day period ending March 2 (right-hand end of pale blue line) is lower than at any point since satellite measurements began in 1979. Averaged over the preceding five days, the extent on Thursday, March 2, was 2.113 million square kilometers. The next-lowest value for this date, in 1997, had about 236,000 more sq km than 2017. Image credit: NSIDC.

A head-turning switch
For now, at least, Antarctic sea ice has relinquished its role as a poster child for counterintuitive events on a warming planet. Unlike the Arctic, where sea ice extent, area and thickness have all undergone dramatic dips consistent with human-produced climate change, the Antarctic has not only held its own but expanded to record-high extents at times. The southern summers of 2013, 2014, and 2015 each retained enough sea ice to rank among the five highest minimums in yearly extent since 1979.

If you find it odd that Antarctic ice has proven so resilient, you’re not alone. A majority of simulations carried out in support of the most recent IPCC report predicted that Antarctic sea ice coverage should have declined between 1979 and 2013. In a 2015 review paper published in Nature Climate Change, a group of Antarctic experts identified some factors that may be enhancing regional sea ice production in spite of global warming. These include:

--stronger westerly winds ringing the continent
--increased meltwater flowing into the Southern Ocean
--a stronger prevailing low in the Amundsen Sea. This tends to favor cold offshore flow and enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea, with mild onshore flow and reduced sea ice in the Amundsen-Bellinghausen region.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on Thursday, March 2, 2017 (white area) compared to the average extent for this date in the period 1981-2010. Most of the deficit this year is in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross Seas, which are typically the areas hardest hit during summers with low sea ice extent. Image credit: NSIDC.

What will autumn bring?
While this year’s minimum is a clear record-setter, it shouldn’t pack the same regional punch as we’ve seen from similar events in the Arctic. There’s an increasing body of work showing connections between newly opened water in the Arctic, especially in autumn, and the weather and climate of the subsequent winter over both poles and midlatitudes. But several factors work to blunt the impact of low sea ice extent in the Antarctic, according to Meier. For one, “the ocean is much more dynamic than in the Arctic, so any extra heat that gets absorbed gets mixed fairly quickly,” he said. “Plus, there is a very white, very cold continent right next to the ice, so that helps cool things down quickly.” Big swings from maximum to minimum extent are also the norm in Antarctica, where such swings are about 60% bigger on average than in the Arctic.

La Niña events tend to strengthen the Amundsen Sea Low mentioned above, and the frequent La Niña conditions from about 1999 to 2014 may have helped bolster Antarctic sea ice. Since then, El Niño conditions have predominated, and there’s another El Niño event potentially taking shape for 2017-18. If so, then we might see another big bite out of Antarctica’s late-summer sea ice next year. But the region’s climate is so complex and variable in both time and space that it’s risky to offer predictions.

“It’s possible that we’ll look back in a decade and see this year as a turning point when the Antarctic sea ice finally started to feel the long-term global warming influence above the natural variability,” Meier told me. “But we may also look back and see this year as an unusual blip in the time series--an anomalous spike that is quickly gone.”


Figure 3. The rift in the Larsen C ice shelf photographed from NASA’s DC-8 research aircraft on November 10, 2016. The rift is about 0.2 miles wide and 0.3 miles deep. Image credit: John Sonntag, NASA.

The big fracture in the Larsen C shelf: It’s still there
A chunk of ice as large as Delaware continues to cling to the Antarctic Peninsula, but an ever-lengthening crack is likely to sever it in the not-too-distant future. Now extending more than 100 miles, the crack in the Larsen C shelf is roughly 1000 feet wide and about 1500 feet deep. More than half of the crack’s length has developed since 2010. If it proceeds for another 20 miles, which may happen in the next few months, then it will release an enormous iceberg (or collection of smaller icebergs), perhaps one of the largest on record. The New York Times has an excellent multimedia feature on the physics and geography of the crack.

The largest iceberg measured by satellite in Earth’s history, Iceberg B-15, broke off of Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf in March 2000. Iceberg B-15 was about 1.7 times larger in area compared to the chunk about to break off from the Larsen C ice shelf. According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the largest tabular iceberg ever observed was approximately three times the size of B-15, at over 12,000 square miles. It was 208 miles long by 60 miles wide, and was sighted 150 miles west of Scott Island in the Southern Ocean by the USS Glacier on November 12, 1956 (thanks go to WU member lifeblack for this info.)

The apparently doomed slice of Larsen C wouldn’t affect sea level rise directly, since it is already floating. The real concern is that its loss might destabilize the balance of forces that keeps a much larger area of glacial ice behind Larsen C from flowing off the Antarctic Peninsula and into the sea. According to a Washington Post article filed by Chris Mooney, researchers believe enough ice could flow seaward in the wake of a Larsen C collapse to raise sea level by as much as 10 cm (3.9 in).

The Larsen shelves lining the east coast of the peninsula are disintegrating in alphabetic order, it seems. The relatively small, furthest-north Larsen A collapsed in 1995, and the gradual disintegration of Larsen B should be complete this decade after a large chunk—about half the breadth and depth of the vulnerable Larsen C chunk—detached into the sea in early 2002.

“Iceberg calving is a normal part of the glacier life cycle, and there is every chance that Larsen C will remain stable and this ice will regrow,” said Paul Holland (British Antarctic Survey) in a BAS news feature on February 21. “However, it is also possible that this iceberg calving will leave Larsen C in an unstable configuration. If that happens, further iceberg calving could cause a retreat of Larsen C. We won’t be able to tell whether Larsen C is unstable until the iceberg has calved and we are able to understand the behaviour of the remaining ice.”

A 2016 study led by scientists from Swansea University and BAS concluded that the main cause of glacial retreat along the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula since the 1990s has been ocean warming. There is no direct evidence on whether the Larsen C rift is a product of climate change, but the peninsula as a whole has been warming rapidly since the 1950s.


Figure 4. Established in 1953 and now one of 76 Antarctic research stations maintained by 30 countries, the Argentine-managed Esperanza Base sits near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. This photo was taken on January 15, 2016. Image credit: Godot13, Wikimedia Commons.

And speaking of warming on the Antarctic Peninsula…
The official record high for the continent of Antarctica is now 17.5°C (63.5°F), according to the World Meteorological Organization. In a news release issued Wednesday, the WMO announced that a committee of experts (including WU weather historian Christopher Burt) had investigated and confirmed the new record. It was set on March 24, 2015, near the tip of the Antarctica Peninsula at the the Argentine research station Esperanza Base.

A post written by Chris Burt on March 26, 2015, explains in detail the complexity of determining exactly what qualifies as Antarctica when it comes to weather records. For the “Antarctica Region,” defined by the WMO and UN as all land and ice south of 60°S, the all-time high remains 19.8°C (67.6°F), recorded at Signy Research Station, Signy Island, on January 30, 1982.

An important caveat from the WMO: “It is possible, indeed likely, that greater extremes can and have occurred in the Antarctic Region. However, the extremes presented here are the highest observed temperatures placed before the WMO for adjudication. When higher extreme events are effectively recorded and brought to the attention of the WMO, subsequent evaluations of those extremes can occur.”

Next week: Potential threat for Madagascar next week from Tropical Cyclone Enawo
A tropical cyclone long predicted by models to develop in the southwest Indian Ocean is finally taking shape. As of Friday morning, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center was projecting that Tropical Cyclone Enawo would vault to Category 4 strength, with top winds of 125 knots (145 mph), as it nears the east coast of Madagascar by next Wednesday. Earlier this week, Jeff Masters and I covered the Southern Hemisphere’s oddly quiet tropical cyclone season to date. We're keeping an eye on Enawo.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


Figure 5. This visible image of newly developed tropical cyclone Enawo was taken from the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite on March 3 at 0954 UTC (4:45 a.m. EST). The tropical storm formed northeast of the African island country of Madagascar. Image credit: NOAA/NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.

Antarctic Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

There have been a lot of questions about what the new comment section to the blog will look like, come April. Below is an example of what it will look like, from a version we are currently testing:




Jeff Masters
And so ACC continues. Going to be a bit like kayaking the Niagra river, just above the falls I expect.
Here, this is from the comment section from the last blog:

Quoting 450. FLwolverine:

Rookie, I haven't caught up on the comments yet, so I may be repeating someone else: corporations do what they do because the people owning and running them want "that" done. Mostly, these days, "that" is creating more compensation for the top bosses and more profit for the owners - and usually in that priority. Corporations are the way they are because of the people running them. Unfortunately many - most? - of the people running big corporations today are short sighted and greedy, interested in keeping their jobs and obscene compensation, but not concerned about the welfare of the public or the country. (obviously it's not necessary to be receiving obscene compensation in order to have this attitude - just look around)

Which is maybe a long way of saying, decisions about the future of WU are not made by IBM - they are made by people in management who want to make more money for themselves and their bosses and owners and advertisers. I think WU will be gone in a few years because the WU-ers will leave, meaning fewer clicks, meaning less advertising revenue, meaning fewer advertisers, meaning less money for IBM, meaning - "this product is being eliminated because its unprofitable". Sad.

To echo something you said in another comment, I have been wondering for 25 years now just exactly where corporations (and their investors!) expected to find their consumers after they had downsized and automated everyone out of a job. A company announces it's cutting its workforce by 15% and its stock goes up? Insanity.


For-profit Corporations are structurally antisocial: If a CEO chooses a path for moral reasons that also has a negative effect on profit, s/he will get sued by shareholders. So no one who would chose morality over profit would even consider holding a CEO position, or any position of leadership in a corporation. "Money first, the hell with with anything else"

If an individual behaved that way, everyone would understand that it was sociopathic behavior.

Said it before, here it is again: For-profit corporations are a social disease.

It's a real disease, and, left untreated, will result in demise, total and final.

Not all their disinformational strategies, nor all their 'pull' and connections, not all their guns and weapons of war will controvert this truth. The Maw of Reality is infinitely capacious.
Thanks for the update on the ice issues and as to Enawo.
Enawo has to be watched very closely in Madagascar.  There is little confidence in the exact current forecast track (posted below) due to steering current issues and the storm is expected to slow down.  Given the fact that the "dirty side" of clock-wise storms in the Southern Hemisphere is in the W-NW quad, Enawo could end up giving a real beating in terms of wind, storm surge, and flooding rains to the coast regions adjacent to this storm depending on how close it gets.
A very dangerous situation for them if the storm slows and meanders close to the Coast for an extended period:

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH
TEMPS OBSERVED NEAR 30C. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NETR TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO UNDERGO STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA WITH REDUCED VWS AND
EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FOREWORD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A COMPETING UPPER-LEVEL STEERING
PATTERN, BETWEEN THE NETR TO THE EAST AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER TAU 36, THE NETR WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS THE STR
RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL
POOR AGREEMENT ON THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN, WITH A
635 NM SPREAD IN THE TRACKERS AT TAU 120. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY OF
THESE TRACKERS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS POOR AT THIS TIME
. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 8 FEET
Quoting 1. JeffMasters:

There have been a lot of questions about what the new comment section to the blog will look like, come April. Below is an example of what it will look like, from a version we are currently testing:



Jeff Masters

Excellent! Exactly what I had envisioned--and exactly what I would have created were I the developer. Thanks!
Quoting 1. JeffMasters:

There have been a lot of questions about what the new comment section to the blog will look like, come April. Below is an example of what it will look like, from a version we are currently testing:



Jeff Masters


Using Disqus? That will be interesting. I'm on several blogs that use Disqus commenting. Outside of wearing out your fingers to load new comments as the popup (really only an issue when it's very very busy) I like the system.
Quoting 1. JeffMasters:

There have been a lot of questions about what the new comment section to the blog will look like, come April. Below is an example of what it will look like, from a version we are currently testing:



Jeff Masters


Is that also the quality of comments you expect? ;p
Jeff will there be a main posting by you and Bob every day or couple days, and will we being able to comment on that semi-daily posting in the format below? Thank you. And if the answer is yes and yes then I suppose I need to refill my anti freakout pill prescription. And I'm sorry if that is indeed the case.

Adios drought.
Quoting 6. EmsiNasklug:


Is that also the quality of comments you expect? ;p



If he's proven the existence of snow rabbits then what greater quality could you ask for? And the Republicans now have the ammunition they need to discredit the whole climate scientific community. I don't think Jeff realizes what he's done. And they're huge. Likely a side affect of global cooling.
And now HWRF shows landfall ten miles or so north of Vatomandry...



while GFS still keeps Enawo almost 50 miles offshore, UKMET keeps Enawo closer to Reunion, and Euro continues to show landfall near Antalaha in the northeast.
Wish there was someway to transport the member blogs and allow them to link them. But I'm sure that is not easy as it sounds. Just was an awesome feature and some of the member blogs were a big part of the fun had here. Allow them to copy them and keep them alive. So much work went into so many of them. But I know that is fantasy thinking.
Quoting 7. DeepSeaRising:

Jeff will there be a main posting by you and Bob every day or couple days, and will we being able to comment on that semi-daily posting in the format below? Thank you. And if the answer is yes and yes then I suppose I need to refill my anti freakout pill prescription. And I'm sorry if that is indeed the case.



Yes and yes!
A potential Cat 4 storm making landfall somewhere along the Coast of Madagascar would be a worst case scenario for them; hoping that up-welling issues, if the storm is moving really slowly towards the coast, and/or land interaction would keep it as weak as possible if it does come ashore.

However, it is a very wet storm so flooding is going to be a huge issue regardless of wind speeds. The relative amount of available moisture and rain with this storm, and how Madagascar is on the dirty side, is pretty evident in the bigger picture:








Thank you Bob. Change is scary and in the climate we live in, trust is earned. Jeff has given us that over the years and the selling of WU is not something most of us would have ever said no to. I think after all the great times and personal sharing Jeff has done with us through the years; we can look at this and be happy for him and his team. I have been one of the biggest critics of this move, but it was largely emotionally based. Glad your on board Mr. Henson and I look forward to what's to come next at WU.
I think B-15 is only the largest iceberg that we measured by satellite. There have been larger icebergs sighted. (see note 1 in wikipedia's B-15 page)

From the guinness book of world records: The largest tabular iceberg ever was over 12,000 square miles. It was 208 miles long and 60 miles wide and was sighted 150 miles west of Scott Island in the Southern Ocean by the USS Glacier on November 12, 1956 (so approximately 3x the size of B-15)
I think this Guardian article is relevant to the blog post, although it is about computer modeling of Arctic ice and the northern Atlantic:

Drastic cooling in North Atlantic beyond worst fears, scientists warn Link

For thousands of years, parts of northwest Europe have enjoyed a climate about 5C warmer than many other regions on the same latitude. But new scientific analysis suggests that that could change much sooner and much faster than thought possible.

Climatologists who have looked again at the possibility of major climate change in and around the Atlantic Ocean, a persistent puzzle to researchers, now say there is an almost 50% chance that a key area of the North Atlantic could cool suddenly and rapidly, within the space of a decade, before the end of this century.

That is a much starker prospect than even the worst-case scientific scenario proposed so far, which does not see the Atlantic ocean current shutdown happening for several hundred years at least.

(more at link)


Here is the scientific paper, which looks to be accessible: Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models Link

I'll go read it before commenting further. The summation in The Guardian raised a lot of questions...
Edit: OK, I'm going to need more caffeine in order to keep track of the isopycnals, MLD and SPG... I haven't even gotten to the statistics.
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2017 AT 1800 UTC.


Excerpt:

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 56.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
Lots mountain ranges along the Eastern side of Madagascar facing the storm; can't imagine what the coastal flooding would be like if the storm squeezes out tons of rain over those mountains flushing water and mud back in towards the coastal towns and valleys:

 Image result for mountain ranges of madagascar
Quoting 12. BobHenson:



Yes and yes!


Do you know if HTML tags will be allowed in the comments, as they are now?
Quoting 15. lifeblack:

I think B-15 is only the largest iceberg that we measured by satellite. There have been larger icebergs sighted. (see note 1 in wikipedia's B-15 page)

From the guinness book of world records: The largest tabular iceberg ever was over 12,000 square miles. It was 208 miles long and 60 miles wide and was sighted 150 miles west of Scott Island in the Southern Ocean by the USS Glacier on November 12, 1956 (so approximately 3x the size of B-15)


Thanks! I changed the post thus:

The largest iceberg measured by satellite in Earth’s history, Iceberg B-15, broke off of Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf in March 2000. Iceberg B-15 was about 1.7 times larger in area compared to the chunk about to break off from the Larsen C ice shelf. According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the largest tabular iceberg ever observed was approximately three times the size of B-15, at over 12,000 square miles. It was 208 miles long by 60 miles wide, and was sighted 150 miles west of Scott Island in the Southern Ocean by the USS Glacier on November 12, 1956 (thanks go to WU member lifeblack for this info.)

Jeff Masters
From National Geographic:

Siberia's Growing 'Doorway to Hell' Offers Clues on Climate Change

A new study suggests that the expanding hole might provide fresh insight into a warming world.



Some call it a doorway to hell. Or a portal to the underworld. Scientists call it a crater. But everyone agrees that it's getting bigger.

The Batagiaka crater in eastern Siberia, already the largest of its kind, has been growing wider. The most recent measurements, published in February of this year, estimate the crater to be 0.6 miles long and 282 feet deep. These numbers are expected to continue gradually increasing.

[...]

Siberia's crater is caused by melting permafrost, perennially frozen soil that remains in that state for at least two consecutive years. The resulting irregular terrain of mounds and hollows is called thermokarst.

A new study published in the journal Quaternary Research indicates that the crater may allow scientists to view more than 200,000 years of climate change in Siberia. Scientists plan to collect sediment to analyze how the landscape changed as climate warmed and cooled during the last Ice Age. This could provide insights for today's climate change issues. Satellite imagery indicates that the crater expands, on average, by 33 feet per year.

[...]

Increasing thermokarst is not only one result of a warming climate, but it may also be a cause of warming temperatures in the future. Scientist estimate that as much as 50 percent of the Earth's methane gas may be stored in Arctic and Northern Hemisphere permafrost (methane is a greenhouse gas more powerful than carbon dioxide).

A 2016 study in the journal Nature Communications looked at greenhouse gases released from Siberian permafrost in the last ice age and found that the climate experienced a significant spike in temperatures from this alone. A spike, they believe, that could happen again.

"The Arctic carbon reservoir locked in the Siberian permafrost has the potential to lead to massive emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere,” the study's co-author Francesco Muschitiello told Columbia University's science blog after the study's release.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 19. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you know if HTML tags will be allowed in the comments, as they are now?


Yes, though there is no warning message that you are about to go off-site, like there is now.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 19. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you know if HTML tags will be allowed in the comments, as they are now?

From my experience, Disqus will handle most HTML tags
Quoting 22. JeffMasters:



Yes, though there is no warning message that you are about to go off-site, like there is now.

Jeff Masters

Also if you click a link it won't open it in a new tab, make sure to right/command/CTRL click on links!
Zack Labe:
@ZLabe

Jeez... February 2017 #Arctic sea ice volume was nearly 2000 km^3 below the previous (PIOMAS) record (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumet hickness/)


Latest PIOMAS (model, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated through February 2017).
Quoting 23. 1Zach1:


From my experience, Disqus will handle most HTML tags


I have been to websites that use Disqus and have found that some of the websites allow the use of HTML tags while others would not. The tags would simply appear as text in the comment.
Per the most recent upper air charts, shear is still affecting the Northern Quad of the storm, but the SW drift-movement has allowed the core to slip under a better upper air outflow divergence slot; it is going to be a slow crawl towards the Island come Monday and Tuesday under better sheer conditions:

Quoting 26. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I have been to websites that use Disqus and have found that some of the websites allow the use of HTML tags while others would not. The tags would simply appear as text in the comment.


I just tested the new commenting software we are testing, and the HTML tags do not show up as text, but as a link you can click on.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 16. annabatic:

I think this Guardian article is relevant to the blog post, although it is about computer modeling of Arctic ice and the northern Atlantic:

Drastic cooling in North Atlantic beyond worst fears, scientists warn Link

For thousands of years, parts of northwest Europe have enjoyed a climate about 5C warmer than many other regions on the same latitude. But new scientific analysis suggests that that could change much sooner and much faster than thought possible.

Climatologists who have looked again at the possibility of major climate change in and around the Atlantic Ocean, a persistent puzzle to researchers, now say there is an almost 50% chance that a key area of the North Atlantic could cool suddenly and rapidly, within the space of a decade, before the end of this century.

That is a much starker prospect than even the worst-case scientific scenario proposed so far, which does not see the Atlantic ocean current shutdown happening for several hundred years at least.

(more at link)


Here is the scientific paper, which looks to be accessible: Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models Link

I'll go read it before commenting further. The summation in The Guardian raised a lot of questions...
Edit: lol, I'm going to need more caffeine in order o keep track of the isopycnals, MLD and SPG... I haven't even gotten to the statistics.


Ocean cooling in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, yes.. maybe even worse than hypothesized. But I'm skeptical that the atmosphere will cool as much and it won't be in lockstep with ocean cooling. The problem of how the atmosphere responds to a much colder North Atlantic (other than decoupling) needs to be examined.
Quoting 28. JeffMasters:



I just tested the new commenting software we are testing, and the HTML tags do not show up as text, but as a link you can click on.

Jeff Masters


Excellent, Jeff. Thank you!

Quoting 2. MontanaZephyr:

And so ACC continues. Going to be a bit like kayaking the Niagra river, just above the falls I expect.
Here, this is from the comment section from the last blog:



For-profit Corporations are structurally antisocial: If a CEO chooses a path for moral reasons that also has a negative effect on profit, s/he will get sued by shareholders. So no one who would chose morality over profit would even consider holding a CEO position, or any position of leadership in a corporation. "Money first, the hell with with anything else"

If an individual behaved that way, everyone would understand that it was sociopathic behavior.

Said it before, here it is again: For-profit corporations are a social disease.

It's a real disease, and, left untreated, will result in demise, total and final.

Not all their disinformational strategies, nor all their 'pull' and connections, not all their guns and weapons of war will controvert this truth. The Maw of Reality is infinitely capacious.


You have no idea what a corporation is do you, and if you do I am wondering where you shop for the things you need. Is it your local mom and pop shop? What if you were to learn that they are some form of a for profit corporation.

Hint: they are

After a low of about -10f this morning it has warmed up nicely to near 20f and partly sunny. Well the Pileated Woodpecker we have had a problem with making holes in the house has been back to his/her detruction and its days are numbered to the next time I see him/her. A funeral will follow shortly after with burial in the nearest garbage can
The WMO team of ignorants as always said a FALSE thing: the highest temperature " the mainland of Antarctica and its adjoining islands" was 17.8C in James Ross Island the same day.
Experts ??? Those clowns ? Give me a break, those are a bunch of inepts who have been stealing their salaries for years.
Complexity ? For upmost ignorants who know nothing about geography, climatology and geology maybe.
My 7 years old niece could have done a better job in a couple of hours.
Congratulations,! TERRIBLE JOB as always.-...
Will finally note as to Madagascar (per the Wiki entry below), that the great majority of the population of Madagascar lives in the Eastern Highlands (Mountains) and Eastern Coastal Plain............They are going to have to figure out what to do in terms of potential evacuations to safe zones if the storm actually moves in towards the Coast. Lets hope that this does not turn out to be a major disaster for them.


In 2016, the population of Madagascar was estimated at 24 million. The annual population growth rate in Madagascar was approximately 2.9 percent in 2009. The population grew from 2.2 million in 1900 to an estimated 24 million in 2016.

Approximately 42.5 percent of the population is younger than 15 years of age, while 54.5 percent are between the ages of 15 and 64. Those aged 65 and older form three percent of the total population. Only two general censuses, in 1975 and 1993, have been carried out after independence. The most densely populated regions of the island are the eastern highlands and the eastern coast, contrasting most dramatically with the sparsely populated western plains.

Quoting 31. nymore:



You have no idea what a corporation is do you, and if you do I am wondering where you shop for the things you need. Is it your local mom and pop shop? What if you were to learn that they are some form of a for profit corporation.

Hint: they are

After a low of about -10f this morning it has warmed up nicely to near 20f and partly sunny. Well the Pileated Woodpecker we have had a problem with making holes in the house has been back to his/her detruction and its days are numbered to the next time I see him/her. A funeral will follow shortly after with burial in the nearest garbage can


While what you say is true, in the broad sense of what a corporation can be, it is not the mom and pop shops that are being brought to mind in the discussion of corporations here. I believe that you fully realize that the corporations being discussed here are the multi-conglomerate and international corporations that have become large enough as to have the ability to sway political elections in order to garner the public policies that would favor them over all other concerns. It would be rare for a small corporation, like a mom and pop shop, to garner enough political influence to have a say in public policy considerations beyond the local or, perhaps, the state level. Certainly they would not have such an influence on the national or international level.
Quoting 32. maxcrc:

The WMO team of ignorants as always said a FALSE thing: the highest temperature " the mainland of Antarctica and its adjoining islands" was 17.8C in James Ross Island the same day.
Experts ??? Those clowns ? Give me a break, those are a bunch of inepts who have been stealing their salaries for years.
Complexity ? For upmost ignorants who know nothing about geography, climatology and geology maybe.
My 7 years old niece could have done a better job in a couple of hours.
Congratulations,! TERRIBLE JOB as always.-...


What readings did you obtain and what methodology did you use? Have your readings and methodology been reviewed by others? What makes you so certain that the WMO is inept on this and that you and your 7 year old niece are a more reliable source on this?
Hmm? I wonder why the example of how a post will look with the new software is completely blank for me. Also, anyone who quoted that post is also blank.

If I 'right click' on the image then view it, I can see something. Do some of us need to change a setting? I'm using FF (latest version).

deleted, double post.
#35 Ergo, ego?
Quoting 36. RickWPB:

Hmm? I wonder why the example of how a post will look with the new software is completely blank for me. Also, anyone who quoted that post is also blank.

If I 'right click' on the image then view it, I can see something. Do some of us need to change a setting? I'm using FF (latest version).




I had the same issue. I had to move the mouse cursor over the image placeholder and then right click>show image. The image then loaded for me.
Quoting 34. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



While what you say is true, in the broad sense of what a corporation can be, it is not the mom and pop shops that are being brought to mind in the discussion of corporations here. I believe that you fully realize that the corporations being discussed here are the multi-conglomerate and international corporations that have become large enough as to have the ability to sway political elections in order to garner the public policies that would favor them over all other concerns. It would be rare for a small corporation, like a mom and pop shop, to garner enough political influence to have a say in public policy considerations beyond the local or, perhaps, the state level. Certainly they would not have such an influence on the national or international level.


The game is exactly the same, the only difference is the venue in which the game is played.
Quoting 39. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I had the same issue. I had to move the mouse cursor over the image placeholder and then right click>show image. The image then loaded for me.

Yes, I know. I mentioned that in my post.

I searched for browser issues with 'Disqus' and found the following:
https://help.disqus.com/customer/portal/articles/ 1403794-browser-plugin-extension-conflicts
It's not my problem. There is something you need to do if you're using Avast anti-virus. But, I'm using Kaspersky. I just tried disabling 'private browsing' and it's still blank.
The new blog comment system looks pretty good!
Quoting 40. nymore:



The game is exactly the same, the only difference is the venue in which the game is played.


You know better than that. One simply does not sit down at a high stakes game when all you have is a two dollar bill to throw down on the table.
Quoting 32. maxcrc:

The WMO team of ignorants as always said a FALSE thing: the highest temperature " the mainland of Antarctica and its adjoining islands" was 17.8C in James Ross Island the same day.
Experts ??? Those clowns ? Give me a break, those are a bunch of inepts who have been stealing their salaries for years.
Complexity ? For upmost ignorants who know nothing about geography, climatology and geology maybe.
My 7 years old niece could have done a better job in a couple of hours.
Congratulations,! TERRIBLE JOB as always.-...


Here is an article about the record, measured by czech scientists.

Interesting, it is not a WMO station. Coincidence?
Quoting 41. RickWPB:


Yes, I know. I mentioned that in my post.

I searched for browser issues with 'Disqus' and found the following:
https://help.disqus.com/customer/portal/articles/ 1403794-browser-plugin-extension-conflicts
It's not my problem. There is something you need to do if you're using Avast anti-virus. But, I'm using Kaspersky. I just tried disabling 'private browsing' and it's still blank.


I should have read your entire comment. I saw your problem and then did not read that you had discovered the "fix". Mea culpa.
Some1Has2BtheRookie, you have WUmail...
Michael Gerrard‏:
@MichaelGerrard

EPA cancels request for info about methane leaks from oil & gas operators; wants to "reduce burdens on businesses." bit.ly/2dRsxDM

Quoting 43. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You know better than that. One simply does not sit down at a high stakes game when all you have is a two dollar bill to throw down on the table.


It is true. No big corporation just started out that way.

Think of it using your example. I sit down at a small stakes table with my two dollars and do very well, in order to do this I had to beat my other competitors, now I move to a bigger limit table and try to do it again and so on. This is how it works for the most part.

Another way to do it is to have money backers. I have bet on peoples talents or ideas plenty of times. Do not think every person at the high roller table is playing with their own money, they may very well be playing with mine.
Quoting 18. weathermanwannabe:

Lots mountain ranges along the Eastern side of Madagascar facing the storm; can't imagine what the coastal flooding would be like if the storm squeezes out tons of rain over those mountains flushing water and mud back in towards the coastal towns and valleys:


The habit of burning down the grassland doesn't make it any better.


Quoting 47. Xandra:

Michael Gerrard‏:
@MichaelGerrard

EPA cancels request for info about methane leaks from oil & gas operators; wants to "reduce burdens on businesses." bit.ly/2dRsxDM




Will customers that complain be next "burden" removed for businesses?
Does disqus allow links links?

I am used to posting a lot of links on twitter, but it's been my experience that

disqus does not allow links. The policy may have changed.

What happens to user names of those who already have usernames on the
disqus platform?
Quoting 48. nymore:



It is true. No big corporation just started out that way.

Think of it using your example. I sit down at a small stakes table with my two dollars and do very well, in order to do this I had to beat my other competitors, now I move to a bigger limit table and try to do it again and so on. This is how it works for the most part.

Another way to do it is to have money backers. I have bet on peoples talents or ideas plenty of times. Do not think every person at the high roller table is playing with their own money, they may very well be playing with mine.


I understand how Capitalism works. Your low stakes game may bring you some pleasure and some winnings, but the real action is happening at the high stakes table. The high stakes players are not waiting around to see if you can gain enough money for a seat. They will continue their games without you and without any concerns for you.
Changing the blog format? No one likes change ;)

Funny that a change in the WU site seems to stir up more anxiety than changes on-going that really will impact our lives.
Quoting 50. Patrap:


Levon 4eva.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW XX
4:44 AM CST March 4 2017
================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low located at 8.7S 132.7E or 375 km northeast of Milikapiti and 460 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

A tropical low is developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the weekend and may form into a tropical cyclone near the Tiwi Islands on Sunday. The tropical cyclone may cross the north Kimberley coast later on Monday or early Tuesday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop over coastal and island communities between Croker Island, near the Cobourg Peninsula, and Cape Fourcroy on the Tiwi Islands during Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy of Northern Territory
Quoting 47. Xandra:

Michael Gerrard%u200F:
@MichaelGerrard

EPA cancels request for info about methane leaks from oil & gas operators; wants to "reduce burdens on businesses." bit.ly/2dRsxDM



Do they realize the burden on the PEOPLE for not checking for leaks? I'll give you a hint
Questions of Stability: An Interview with Stefan Rahmstorf – Earth101

Published on Mars 03, 2017

Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf talks about his research on global sea level rise, the role of plantary waves in the atmosphere in relation to extreme weather events and the weakening of the Gulf Stream System in the North Atlantic. He also discusses the scientific consensus and the role of the denial industry in establishing doubt. Finally Rahmstorf talks about the role of the Paris Agreement in 2015, why we need to aim higher if we want to keep global temperature increase well below 2°C, and the catastrophic problems we will be faced with if we fail to do so.

Stefan Rahmstorf obtained his PhD in oceanography at Victoria University of Wellington in 1990. He has worked as a scientist at the New Zealand Oceanographic Institute, at the Institute of Marine Science in Kiel and since 1996 at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. His work focuses on the role of the oceans in climate change.

In 1999 Rahmstorf was awarded the $ 1 million Centennial Fellowship Award of the US-based James S. McDonnell foundation. Since 2000 he teaches Physics of the Oceans as a professor at Potsdam University. Rahmstorf served from 2004–2013 in the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) and was one of the lead authors of the 4th IPCC Assessment Report.

Dr. Rahmstorf has published over 100 scientific papers (30 in leading journals such as Nature, Science and PNAS) and co-authored four books. Available in English are Our Threatened Oceans (2009, with Katherine Richardson) and The Climate Crisis (2010, with David Archer).

Everyone have a safe weather weekend; really nice weather this weekend across the Southern tier and see Yall next week.
Gonna keep an eye on Enawo over the weekend..............Ouch: really starting to get it's act together this afternoon.

It would be interesting to read Dr. Masters' or Mr. Henson's take on the paper I mentioned in #14 below, about the modeling of future convection and SSTs in the North Atlantic.

What I got, from a probably too fast reading of it, is that there could be abrupt local cooling in areas like the Labrador or Nordic Seas, which would halt for some time the global warming trend in nearby land masses. The chance of that seems moderate this century. The chances of a convective collapse in the whole North Atlantic, with dramatic consequences (loss of AMOC, etc), seem much more remote. The authors think that the reliability of current models should be estimated by their agreement with observational data on ocean stratification, which plays an important parameter in the models. The models that better reflect observed stratification tend to show possible sudden cooling of the local convection regions. Also, generally accepted models are not incorporating freshwater melt from Greenland as much as they should.

If anyone wants to correct this, or add to it, please do! Thx.
I haven't seen much in this blog about this but the current HRWF run is showing invest 96-s making landfall as a 930mb storm. GFS is a little weaker at around 946mb landfall. Any thoughts on this? EDIT: #56 has more info on this
Climate Change Is Turning Minor Floods Into A Major Problem
The result of increasingly frequent “nuisance” flooding could be even more destructive than disasters like Katrina and Sandy.

By Joseph Erbentraut


It goes without saying that major natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy, deservedly, tend to capture far more media attention than less extreme, more localized flooding.

But ignoring those minor storms could prove costly, according to a new study authored by University of California-Irvine researchers and published last month in the Earth’s Future journal.

That’s because the impact of those minor storms could prove even more destructive in the near future. As is the case with extreme rainfall events, these storms are becoming increasingly common due to our warming planet.

Just because these storms tend to fly under the radar both in media and research circles doesn’t mean they should be taken any less seriously, according to study co-author Amir AghaKouchak, a civil and environmental engineering professor at University of California-Irvine.

“Non-extreme weather events don’t get a lot of attention, but we spend a lot of money on them,” AghaKouchak told The Huffington Post. “The cumulative costs are significant and we need to start monitoring them and collecting data to understand them better.”

AghaKouchak was inspired to look into the collective impacts of these smaller flooding events after he learned of the so-called long tail theory, which suggests the cumulative impact of a frequent, minor event could match or exceed that of a rare, major event.

He wondered if the impacts of more common, less extreme flooding events that might strike a coastal U.S. city, for example, a few times per month or a few times a year might similarly match — or even exceed — the impacts associated with major disasters on the magnitude of a Katrina or Sandy.

The results, based on a cumulative hazard index developed by the researchers, indicate that less extreme “nuisance” flooding could prove just as destructive to many cities, over time, as those extreme events.

The researchers’ analysis considered the future risk of flooding events ranging from minor “nuisance” flooding and extreme disasters and compared estimates of these storms’ impacts in 11 U.S. coastal cities.

Their analysis found that five of the cities — San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, New York and Washington, D.C. — had estimated impacts associated with minor flooding that was just as, or more, serious than the impacts associated with extreme events.



STEPHEN LAM/REUTERS
Many U.S. cities are increasingly facing the challenge of minor, “nuisance” flooding. The impact over time could prove significant, University of California-Irvine researchers say.

Of course, the study notes, direct comparisons between the varying impacts of different types of storms are difficult to make, particularly when it comes to intangible costs like human fatalities that can be caused by extreme storms.

But still, the costs associated with minor storms can prove tremendous ― and life-threatening in their own right.

“If we act too late, we will have significant negative impacts,” AghaKouchak said.

Such flooding can significantly degrade infrastructure like roads and building foundations. It can also impact sewer infrastructure, potentially resulting in serious public health risks. These minor flooding events are also a drain on municipal budgets — due to the resources required to pump water out of streets — and also can force the closure of schools and businesses.

Rising sea levels spurred on by climate change are contributing to increased frequency, and an increased cumulative effect, of these storms.

In D.C., the study noted, the number of hours of nuisance flooding per year has increased almost 500 percent over the last 50 years, from about 19 hours between the years 1930 and 1970 to about 94 over the past two decades. Projections indicate that number will continue to grow at an increasing rate — to as much as 700 hours per year — by 2050.

To address the problem, AghaKouchak said coastal cities will need to get proactive with flood control measures, though he added that there is no one-size-fits-all solution.

New York City is already working to do just that, launching an ambitious flood resiliency plan that includes the large “Big U” project aims to flood-proof lower Manhattan.

The $505 million project, however, is not yet funded fully. And, of course, what works in New York may not work in Miami — or anywhere else for that matter.

“These issues are very local and there is no single recipe for all cities around the country,” AghaKouchak said. “Each city has to come up with their own plan, and each plan won’t necessarily work in other places.”

The issue is growing more serious with time. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest sea-level rise estimate anticipates scenarios ranging from 1 foot to an “extreme” 8.2 feet rise by 2100.

Beyond the inconvenience of shutting down roads or schools, the trend could force millions of people from their homes. A recent study estimated that as many as 13.1 million Americans could be displaced if the sea level rises 6 inches by century’s end. An estimated 4.2 million people would be forced out of their homes by a 3-inch rise, according to the study.

Because the stakes are so high, AghaKouchak believes action should be taken— and funded — as quickly as possible.

“This may not get a lot of attention, but beyond a certain point, we will see the impacts everywhere,” AghaKouchak said. “The sooner we take action and plan, the better.”

―-

Joseph Erbentraut covers promising innovations and challenges in the areas of food, water, agriculture and our climate. Follow Erbentraut on Twitter at @robojojo. Tips? Email joseph.erbentraut@huffingtonpost.com.

At 1800 UTC, 03 March 2017, ENAWO (SH09) was located in the South-West Indian basin at 13.1S and 56.3E. The current intensity was 45 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 235 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb.





Meteosat Floater Imagery is unavailble currently
61. MrTornadochase:





Bureau of Meteorology not predicting anything above 65 knots, but the CAT2 (50-65) is before the Western Australia landfall.
Evidence disproving tropical 'thermostat' theory: global warming can breach limits for life

If the tropics are not able to control its temperature and do not possess an internal thermostat, that should reshape future thinking about climate change, Huber said.
"If you say there's no tropical thermostat, then half of the world's biodiversity—over half of the world's population, the tropical rainforests, the reefs, India, Brazil—these populous and very important countries have nothing to prevent them from warming up substantially above conditions that humans have been used to," he said.



Read more at: Link
WMO is GARBAGE. Pure inepts.
That means nothing. What it really means is quality of data. Thousands of WMO stations are amongst the worst they exist ,of much lower quality than many other nets stations. The bunch of inepts of WMO FORCED to close hundreds of good stations in several countries (last years in all western Paraguay for example) while other TERRIBLE STATIONS with COMPLETELY FALSE data were installed (see Samoa). Dozens of thousands of WMO stations are in terrible shape and have been giving COMPLETELY WRONG data for years, decades, even 60-70 years. People should learn a thing of two about it. When they will have checked over 1 trillion and 700 billion data of meteorological data of stations of all the planet, ring me up .... we can speak at the same table.
For now, their horrible data, their lies and manipulation worth ZERO. People laugh at them , at their ignorance and vomit for their lack of honesty and professionalism.
Quoting 44. ChateauChalon:



Here is an article about the record, measured by czech scientists.

Interesting, it is not a WMO station. Coincidence?




That means nothing. What it really means is quality of data. Thousands of WMO stations are amongst the worst they exist ,of much lower quality than many other nets stations. The bunch of inepts of WMO FORCED to close hundreds of good stations in several countries (last years in all western Paraguay for example) while other TERRIBLE STATIONS with COMPLETELY FALSE data were installed (see Samoa). Dozens of thousands of WMO stations are in terrible shape and have been giving COMPLETELY WRONG data for years, decades, even 60-70 years. People should learn a thing of two about it. When they will have checked over 1 trillion and 700 billion data of meteorological data of stations of all the planet, ring me up .... we can speak at the same table.
They are so stupid that they even wrote "Some stations in Spain might have recorded 48 degrees in summer 2003" BULLSHIT ! No place, no date, MIGHT.... what is that sh... ???
Those temperatures were recorded in 1994 and 1995 not 2003 (except one horrible station near Badajoz , which is known by anybody in the world except WMO that is pure trash).
Their horrible data, their lies and manipulation worth ZERO. People laugh at them , at their ignorance and vomit for their lack of honesty and professionalism.
They are just scums and parasites without dignity.


It's Friday, Im in Love




Try some Love too.

Namaste
Well the Pileated Woodpecker we have had a problem with making holes in the house has been back to his/her detruction and its days are numbered to the next time I see him/her. A funeral will follow shortly after with burial in the nearest garbage can


The woodpecker is probably either finding insects and food in your wood siding (which means you probably need to protect your wood) or it is using it to make a really big noise to mark its territory.

Some solutions: If it's searching for food, put out an easier food source, such as a suet feeder. I have wood siding and 5 different species of woodpeckers in my yard, and they don't bother my house because they have a better food source.

If they are using it to make noise, that gets trickier, but birds don't like things flopping around. You can hang streamers or windsocks from the eaves near where the woodpecker is pecking and that may keep it away. Repair any damage promptly.

The Cornell Lab for Ornithology has an article that may be of use: http://www.birds.cornell.edu/wp_about/control.htm l

I love my Pileateds; they're the coolest looking birds ever. It's illegal to shoot them, btw, not that I would ever want to.



Quoting 25. Xandra:

Zack Labe:
@ZLabe

Jeez... February 2017 #Arctic sea ice volume was nearly 2000 km^3 below the previous (PIOMAS) record (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumet hickness/)


Latest PIOMAS (model, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated through February 2017).


It's looking increasingly likely that, barring some extremely cool cloudy weather this melt season, that arctic sea ice might just reach "ice free" levels this summer.
The count from this week's tornado outbreak is up to 52 as damage surveying continues. A total of 8 EF0s, 33 EF1s, 7 EF2s, and 4 EF3s have been confirmed so far. The long-lived Perryville, Missouri – Christopher, Illinois tornado is still under review for a potential upgrade to EF4. As usual, you can keep up to date with the latest information by visiting our Wikipedia article:

Link
Some European tech news, concerning weather and environment:

Speedy scanner: Earth observation satellite Sentinel-2B ready for 'breakthrough' launch
At the rate the Americans send satellites into space, you'd be right to ask, is it special anymore? Not very. But the Sentinel-2B satellite launch next week is. It's a "breakthrough" in European technology.
DW, 02.03.2017

Weather supercomputing ‘heads to Italy’
By Jonathan Amos BBC Science Correspondent, 3 March 2017
The next-generation supercomputer that will drive Europe’s medium-range weather forecasts looks set to be housed in Bologna, Italy, from 2020.
It would succeed the current system based in Reading, UK.
Member states of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) made the indicative decision to relocate the facility on Wednesday. ...


From a link in the article above:
Aeolus wind mission heads for test and launch
By Jonathan Amos BBC Science Correspondent, 18 January 2017
British engineers have finished assembling a satellite that experts believe could have a transformative impact on our weather forecasts.
The Aeolus spacecraft will fire a laser into the atmosphere to make the first three dimensional maps of wind behaviour across the entire planet.
The data will be incorporated into the models that project weather patterns a few days ahead.
It is information that should give more warning of approaching storms.
It ought also to remove some of the surprises associated with weather systems that end up behaving in a very different way to how they were forecast. ...
Quoting 53. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I understand how Capitalism works. Your low stakes game may bring you some pleasure and some winnings, but the real action is happening at the high stakes table. The high stakes players are not waiting around to see if you can gain enough money for a seat. They will continue their games without you and without any concerns for you.


Capitalism is what natural selection looks like after you throw humans into the mix.
Is this warming keeps up, I'll be planting palm, orange, banana, avocado, and mango trees at my house in Alaska...
Friday, March 3, 2017 Climate Change Open Discussion: Permafrost Decay, Ocean Acidification, Renewable Energy Advances, Trump Turning EPA into Fossil Fuel Vending Machine

Over the past week, it became clear that considerable changes were underway in the global climate system, in the realm of government policy, and in the world’s energy markets. This blog post will touch on as many of these issues as possible. More importantly, it will serve as an open forum for discussing these recent trends over the coming weekend.

Link
What climate change has to do with the price of your lettuce

Unusual weather in the Southwest could cause a nationwide salad shortage later this month. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg (lettuce): Scientists say the weird weather is probably caused by climate change — which means these sorts of problems are likely to happen again.

The shortage, first reported by NPR, is the result of two separate phenomena in Arizona’s Yuma County and California’s Salinas Valley, the two places where the United States grows most of its leafy greens. In Yuma, the lettuce harvest, which usually runs from November to April, wound up early because of unusually warm weather. And in central California, which typically picks up the harvest once Yuma is done, heavy precipitation delayed some plantings.


Link
“Every grower is noting warming,” Overpeck said. “And while we can’t say what percentage is due to humans, we can say humans are putting their foot on the accelerator.”
Here is a copy of the hidden picture.
Chris: [referring to Calvera] I promise you we'll all teach him something about the price of corn!



The Washington Post has a new , small addition to it's masthead

The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
Storm Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ENAWO (06-20162017)
4:00 AM RET March 4 2017
===============================
Northeast of Tromelin Island
East of northern Madagascar

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Enawo (997 hPa) located at 13.3S 56.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 13.8S 56.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 14.2S 55.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 14.7S 53.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 15.1S 50.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
==================
Over the last 6 hours, the cloud pattern remained similar, with very cold cloud tops on infrared imagery (near -90C) and a curved band in the north. Still, last AMRS2 microwave data (2136z) show an improvement in the inner core circulation even the center remains located on the southeastern edge of the most active convective mass. This is due to an easterly upper constraint, confirmed by the CIMSS (25 knots at 1800z). Nevertheless, upper divergence looks excellent in a vast western semi-circle. According to these latest data, received after the first bulletins, maximal winds may be close to 40 knots locally. Finally, the complete 1737z ASCAT data helped in relocating the center westwards at 1800z.

Enawo started to drift southward with the weakening of the tropical ridge that drove the track. The movement is expected to remain similar during the following hours. On Sunday, the track should resume westwards as a mid-level subtropical ridge located over South Africa is expected to gradually extend south of Madagascar. At long range, thus steering flow may decay, inducing a more parabolic track towards south. Within the latest available numerical guidance, the westward shift trend continues (GFS). Thus a landfall over the eastern coast of Madagascar appears to be likely. However there is still uncertainty on the location and the timing of the landing, with very different track speed. The current forecast is a compromise between these two scenarios.

Over the next hours, on this track, vertical wind shear is forecast to remain significant, preventing Enawo from a fast deepening. By the end of the week end, the upper constraint may decrease, as the upper divergence on the polar side. However, with still a strong potential, the system is likely to intensify quicker. It is expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity before Monday and come closer to the next level before landfalling.
Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:

White House proposes steep budget cut to leading climate science agency


NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research would lose $126 million, or 26 percent, of the funds it has under the current budget. Its satellite data division would lose $513 million, or 22 percent, of its current funding under the proposal.

We won't stick a red hot poker in NOAA'a eyes , we'll just blind it so it can only see's fuzzy shapes, and washed out colors.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW XX
11:02 AM CST March 4 2017
================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low located at 9.5S 132.6E or 300 km northeast of Milikapiti and 375 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

A tropical low is developing in the Arafura Sea and may form into a tropical cyclone near the Tiwi Islands early on Sunday. The system is expected to track in a southwesterly direction and move closer to Darwin during Sunday. The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday as it move towards the south or southwest across the Timor Sea. The tropical cyclone may cross the north Kimberley coast later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy early on Sunday.

GALES may extend south between Point Stuart and the Northern Territory/Western Australia border, including Darwin and Wadeye later on Sunday and Monday.

A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone center crosses the coast on Sunday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart and the Northern Territory/Western Australia border on Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to develop over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula later today, extending to the northwest Top End during Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy of Northern Territory

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Point Stuart to Western Australia/Northern Territory border
A timely book from 8 years ago -

The Wrecking Crew: How Conservatives Ruined Government, Enriched Themselves, and Beggared the Nation Paperback – August 18, 2009
by Thomas Frank


From the author of the landmark bestseller What's the Matter with Kansas?, a jaw-dropping investigation of the decades of deliberate―and lucrative―conservative misrule

In his previous book, Thomas Frank explained why working America votes for politicians who reserve their favors for the rich. Now, in The Wrecking Crew, Frank examines the blundering and corrupt Washington those politicians have given us.

Casting his eyes from the Bush administration's final months of plunder to the earliest days of the Republican revolution, Frank describes the rise of a ruling coalition dedicated to dismantling government. But rather than cutting down the big government they claim to hate, conservatives have simply sold it off, deregulating some industries, defunding others, but always turning public policy into a private-sector bidding war. Washington itself has been remade into a golden landscape of super-wealthy suburbs and gleaming lobbyist headquarters―the wages of government-by-entrepreneurship practiced so outrageously by figures such as Jack Abramoff.

It is no coincidence, Frank argues, that the same politicians who guffaw at the idea of effective government have installed a regime in which incompetence is the rule. Nor will the country easily shake off the consequences of deliberate misgovernment through the usual election remedies. Obsessed with achieving a lasting victory, conservatives have taken pains to enshrine the free market as the permanent creed of state.

Stamped with Thomas Frank's audacity, analytic brilliance, and wit, The Wrecking Crew is his most revelatory work yet―and his most important.


Link
Quoting 74. Xyrus2000:



It's looking increasingly likely that, barring some extremely cool cloudy weather this melt season, that arctic sea ice might just reach "ice free" levels this summer.


Thanks for posting a graph where the Y axis shows a zero! :-)

Graphs that have as a base anything other than zero are easily misinterpreted by anyone who is not trained to read them properly.
Bill Gates On Clean Energy, Donald Trump, And Stocks (Full Interview) | Squawk Box | CNBC

Published on Dec 13, 2016
Quoting 73. gunhilda:

Well the Pileated Woodpecker we have had a problem with making holes in the house has been back to his/her detruction and its days are numbered to the next time I see him/her. A funeral will follow shortly after with burial in the nearest garbage can


The woodpecker is probably either finding insects and food in your wood siding (which means you probably need to protect your wood) or it is using it to make a really big noise to mark its territory.

Some solutions: If it's searching for food, put out an easier food source, such as a suet feeder. I have wood siding and 5 different species of woodpeckers in my yard, and they don't bother my house because they have a better food source.

If they are using it to make noise, that gets trickier, but birds don't like things flopping around. You can hang streamers or windsocks from the eaves near where the woodpecker is pecking and that may keep it away. Repair any damage promptly.

The Cornell Lab for Ornithology has an article that may be of use: http://www.birds.cornell.edu/wp_about/control.htm l

I love my Pileateds; they're the coolest looking birds ever. It's illegal to shoot them, btw, not that I would ever want to.






It has been an on and off issue. I am not sure what it is doing, I have tried several times to stop the issue and frankly I like them too. I live in nature where seeing wildlife large and small is just another day but when it becomes this much of an issue something has to give.

I never knew it was illegal to shoot them but if the mn dnr conservation officer wants to come see me I am more than happy to welcome him. He will see what I see and give me the old wink.
Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:

White House proposes steep budget cut to leading climate science agency
Of course they are.
Trump Got Nearly $1 Million in Energy-Efficiency Subsidies in 2012

The Trump White House has wasted no time in targeting pro-climate policies, freezing energy-efficiency standards finalized during the last days of the Obama administration. Its “America First Energy Plan” makes no mention of renewable energy or energy efficiency, and it is focused on fossil fuels.

But in 2012, Donald J. Trump, the businessman, played a different tune.

That year, Mr. Trump finished securing almost $1 million in energy-efficiency incentives and low-interest loans from New York State to fit a Trump-branded residential tower in Westchester County with eco-friendly fixtures, state records show.


Link
'With hail-showers fierce March journeys across earth': A calendar page for March 1128 AD

92. nymore
1:59 AM GMT on March 04, 2017
0 +
Quoting 73. gunhilda:


nymore take gunhilda's advice , put out a feeder . Birds are not stupid . And by the way , your back and forth about woodpeckers , is more proof way this site is not going to hell in a bucket.
I vote for Lewis's woodpecker.
95. BaltimoreBrian
2:13 AM GMT on March 04, 2017
1 +
'With hail-showers fierce March journeys across earth': A calendar page for March 1128 AD


At the same time Chaco Canyon , and it's great culture was going to hell in a hand basket. God. How wish those people had written language.
Im gonna light a candle and go to bed.

Sheeesh'
Quoting 100. Patrap:

Im gonna light a candle and go to bed.

Sheeesh'


Sleep tight "Jar Head" .

Insert smiley face here.
"An important caveat from the WMO: “It is possible, indeed likely, that greater extremes can and have occurred in the Antarctic Region. However, the extremes presented here are the highest observed temperatures placed before the WMO for adjudication. When higher extreme events are effectively recorded and brought to the attention of the WMO, subsequent evaluations of those extremes can occur.”

Remember that part. Just like the 1,100 year temperature record reference on the Russian heat wave a few years ago.

Also, remember the good times before politics were infused into this place.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Ossqss/comment. html?entrynum=2

It will be sad to see all the individuals be disappeared from this site. Including myself.

That is the path picked long ago, and was inevitable. Most of you just didn't know what was coming.

It is not about technology, it is about someone's preference that your blogs disappear.

Notice the timing?

Good day>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGytDsqkQY8




The other night , the "crumbs of climate change" was brought up. It set me to thinking .
How, some see it as no big deal, and the party will never stop. And others are nashing their teeth , depressed , and despond it. And why do we spent any time on this topic?

Well , I for one see it as this, we are riding over a waterfall of not just human history . but geologic history.
It's the real theme park ride . And many of us won't be getting out of our car when the ride is complete.

It is the great uncontrolled experiment , namely we treat our thin shell of gases as waste dump.
Account of an Extraordinary Fireball Bursting at Sea (November 4, 1749)

Just 2 pages long. Use arrow to get to next page in link.
It is the great uncontrolled experiment , namely we treat our thin shell of gases as waste dump.



Cold dead space ls just above your head. Your only 10 miles from it . And there is nothing that we have found comes close to it. To treat our atmosphere as a portapotty is greatest sin man has done.
For years I have looked for an image that shows my thin shell idea. Tonight I found one .......

Notice the white band, that's water vapor.

Remembering a City Where the Smog Could Kill

New York City, looking south from the Empire State Building, morning of November 24, 1966. More than 200 New Yorkers died from air pollution during Thanksgiving weekend, 1966.

As a student of the Earth , I learned one thing ........... Change comes to everything . You don't like the changes here .......................



Eagles Get Over It
Quoting 104. BaltimoreBrian:

Account of an Extraordinary Fireball Bursting at Sea (November 4, 1749)

Just 2 pages long. Use arrow to get to next page in link.

Sounds like Ball Lightning.
Make America Great Again

More than 200 New Yorkers died from air pollution during Thanksgiving weekend, 1966.

No EPA, no Clean Air act.
I am an old hippy, I do not fault Dr. Masters for his choices. And I certainly don't think his followers made him . His site was rich because he made it , not some clever comment from Botox, Tenn.

As the Stones said, "It's the singer, not the song."
Quoting 110. oldnewmex:


Sounds like Ball Lightning.


I had friends at the very top of the Rocky Mountain National Park during the Big Thompson Flood. In 1976.
They told of Ball Lighting rolling along the ground.
Never commit suicide with Milwaukee's Best , the bullets are beer, and the gun is aluminium cans. It leaves a horrible flopping body on the floor.
Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:

White House proposes steep budget cut to leading climate science agency



And this surprises....no one.

Does anyone happen to know why it's getting warmer and why we're all in this hand basket?


Arctic Ice, February 2017 Plot of PIOMAS' Monthly Volume vs NSIDC's Monthly Area. Also known as "the January of recent years past".
Exactly on par for what the cumulative FDD would predict (as shown about where the average value lies).

Given this rate, monthly average volume (as determined by PIOMAS) will top out at or below 20.5 (x10^3) km^3 and monthly average area (as determined by NSIDC) at or around 12.5 (x10^6) km^2. Area might not be a record low, but volume definitely will be.

Ice free summer this year - unlikely. Good odds that the final melt will end somewhere close to the area and volume observed in 2012. If El Nino does make a return this year, the next couple of seasons following this one could be pretty dramatic in terms of overall ice loss.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 20U
2:12 PM CST March 4 2017
================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Low located at 9.7S 131.9E or 235 km northeast of Milikapiti and 325 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

A tropical low is developing in the Arafura Sea and may form into a tropical cyclone near the Tiwi Islands early on Sunday. The system is expected to track in a southwesterly direction and move closer to Darwin during Sunday. The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday as it move towards the south or southwest across the Timor Sea. The tropical cyclone may cross the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy early on Sunday.

GALES may extend south between Point Stuart and the NT/WA border, including Darwin and Wadeye later on Sunday and Monday. GALES may extend west between NT/WA border to Mitchell Plataeu during Monday.

A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Sunday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the NT and Mitchell Plataeu in the WA on Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to develop over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula later today, extending to the western Top End during Sunday and to the Kimberley region later on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy of Northern Territory

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Point Stuart in NT, including Darwin and Wadeye, to Mitchell Plataeu in WA, including Kununurra and Kalumburu
Quoting 112. RobertWC:

I am an old hippy, I do not fault Dr. Masters for his choices. And I certainly don't think his followers made him . His site was rich because he made it , not some clever comment from Botox, Tenn.

As the Stones said, "It's the singer, not the song."


And the singer made millions of dollars on your behalf, not you! The song was his path to riches. Just sayin......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYUg0VN2gVo


Quoting 115. Xyrus2000:



And this surprises....no one.

Does anyone happen to know why it's getting warmer and why we're all in this hand basket?



I watched Moby Bick the other day , Ahab nailed a Spanish coin to the mast. At the end Starbuck was yelling , Kill Moby Dick !
Men are herd animals.
118. Ossqss

I didn't write the song nor did you. Go get a PHD have an Idea and invent this format. Do great insight and writing for over a decade, then get back to me.
Quoting 115. Xyrus2000:



And this surprises....no one.

Does anyone happen to know why it's getting warmer and why we're all in this hand basket?



Pretty much due to most past funding going into research not associated with natural climate variability. It has been warming for a very long time, but we only focus research dollars on politically/policy viewed important sources.



https://www.glerl.noaa.gov//education/pr_images/g lacier.jpg

Intereresting how my link was corrupted when orignally posted here and requires corrective action to view...... So after several attempts to correct, the image link I posted from NOAA is apparently not acceptable here, why?

LOL, you all know why.


3-3-2017; 16% RH in Los Angeles Now As Upper Low Sits Offshore; Heavy Spraying Stops Lift

3-3-2017; 16% RH in Los Angeles Now As Upper Low Sits Offshore; Heavy Spraying Stops Lift
Quoting 120. RobertWC:

118. Ossqss

I didn't write the song nor did you. Go get a PHD have an Idea and invent this format. Do great insight and writing for over a decade, then get back to me.



Thank you Robert.

You provide what is needed with your comment.

Sea Ice is a compelling picture, rapid rise in Pacific Ocean temp early Feb, unusually warm Atlantic, lows passing above New England 500 miles north of the usual position, 3 years of subtle but increasing global temps, no snow and no frost in the ground in Central MA, not even in the woods at 1000 ft. = tipping point

The weather patterns crossing the continent are nothing like I've seen in 60 years of amateur observation. Wild, difficult to predict. This is the third year of reduced precipitation, 20% below normal. More water bans coming. At least the precipitation, while considerably less, has been evenly dispersed, other than the lack of significant contributing snow melt for the reservoirs. Not complaining. Its been much worse in many other regions. It is worrisome however.
I am really sick of the idea that my comments , or anyone else made this site .

Make no mistake It was Dr. Masters. Period. It's his toy, he earned it. We serve at his pleasure . If he was dull flop , none of you would be whining. Cause you would not be here.

He pounded out post after post for years that were important. That's why you are here. Not because you are clever. and he is a greedy fool.

I think he's damn smart, and I for one welcome our new IBM over lords. (Insert joke face here)

Did you really read comment 92?
You are giving the wrong person advice????????????
What's that saying Ron White use's?




Quoting 96. RobertWC:

92. nymore
1:59 AM GMT on March 04, 2017
0 +
Quoting 73. gunhilda:


nymore take gunhilda's advice , put out a feeder . Birds are not stupid . And by the way , your back and forth about woodpeckers , is more proof way this site is not going to hell in a bucket.
I vote for Lewis's woodpecker.
Just curious, are you related to Sar2401?
Thanks!


Quoting 125. RobertWC:

I am really sick of the idea that my comments , or anyone else made this site .

Make no mistake It was Dr. Masters. Period. It's his toy, he earned it. We serve at his pleasure . If he was dull flop , none of you would be whining. Cause you would not be here.

He pounded out post after post for years that were important. That's why you are here. Not because you are clever. and he is a greedy fool.

I think he's damn smart, and I for one welcome our new IBM over lords. (Insert joke face here)


hello all
hello Doc if ur still up
Just curious, are you related to Sar2401?
Thanks!

I am related a related to a 9 year old girl who crossed the Red River into Texas. When I met her, she was 90 . and was 9.
It's been a wet wet winter for most areas in Soo Cal!



It has been a very wet rainy season in Southern California so far, with many stations receiving more than 150% of their normal precipitation (Oct-Feb period) through the end of February. The rains have brought much needed drought relief to the state. Hopefully we can finish the season out on a good note with a normal to above normal March through April.

126. swflurker
6:07 AM GMT on March 04, 2017
0 +
Did you really read comment 92?
You are giving the wrong person advice????????????
What's that saying Ron White use's?


So sue me , I have around 67 cents on the floor of my car. This greatest concentration of my wealth.
Quoting 113. RobertWC:



I had friends at the very top of the Rocky Mountain National Park during the Big Thompson Flood. In 1976.
They told of Ball Lighting rolling along the ground.


My father told me about the time he saw ball lightning in northern England when he was young, 1930s or so. There was a thunderstorm overhead and a house in the street got hit. A ball about six inches across formed above the pavement and then drifted up the outside of a metal drainpipe and disappeared into the roof of the house.
Quoting 133. Vordis:



My father told me about the time he saw ball lightning in northern England when he was young, 1930s or so. There was a thunderstorm overhead and a house in the street got hit. A ball about six inches across formed above the pavement and then drifted up the outside of a metal drainpipe and disappeared into the roof of the house.

The boulders were glowing , my friends were in terror.
More information about the Permafrost melt... The comments are interesting also...

Gaius Publius: Massive Permafrost Thaw Documented in Canada, Huge Carbon Release May Be Coming
136. elioe
Good, sunny afternoon!

Latest forecast track of Enawo (06Z 4 Mar 17, as I write):



CMC is funny, as always, moving Enawo to the south. But all other models agree on a landfall on Madagascar.

Meteo-France forecast, GFS, Euro, HWRF all have a landfall near Antalaha.
JTWC has a landfall near Soanierana-Ivongo.
And UKMET rakes the entire SE coast.
137. elioe
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/03/2017 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/03/2017 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 05/03/2017 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 06/03/2017 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
60H: 06/03/2017 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
72H: 07/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE


RSMC La Reunion should stop drinking and go to sleep.
Somehow I view “Weather” and the differentials that drive changes in our atmosphere as the most emanate process supporting life...Taken as a prime function of our existence, any matter that has relevant impact on the thin layer of gases surrounding earth must be examined and given appropriate value to serve continuation of life... When we no longer wish to pursue this effort, The dialectic will not be joined and deterioration will begin in earnest...This blog is the essence of the examination required for wisdom...
6 degrees F this morning walking the dogs. The birds do not seem too happy outside. Record highs to below average lows, what a swing it was almost 70F just last week.
140. SLU
Someone dropped and iceberg in the eastern Atlantic. This is very unusual to say the least.

Quoting 125. RobertWC:

I am really sick of the idea that my comments , or anyone else made this site .

Make no mistake It was Dr. Masters. Period. It's his toy, he earned it. We serve at his pleasure . If he was dull flop , none of you would be whining. Cause you would not be here.

He pounded out post after post for years that were important. That's why you are here. Not because you are clever. and he is a greedy fool.

I think he's damn smart, and I for one welcome our new IBM over lords. (Insert joke face here)


Good points.
Quoting 141. Kenfa03:

Good points.


Damn right, it's not our site it's his .

Get over it.

138. 1982ExxonPrimate

The Arctic sea ice, and the permafrost are dancing maidens . Moving to the same hot tune.
The Washington Post has a new , small addition to it’s masthead
The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness

What a real problem ?

9,000 murdered in 7 months. Ex-Officer in Philippines Says He Led Death Squad at Duterte's Behest

Quoting 136. elioe:

Good, sunny afternoon!

Latest forecast track of Enawo (06Z 4 Mar 17, as I write):



CMC is funny, as always, moving Enawo to the south. But all other models agree on a landfall on Madagascar.

Meteo-France forecast, GFS, Euro, HWRF all have a landfall near Antalaha.
JTWC has a landfall near Soanierana-Ivongo.
And UKMET rakes the entire SE coast.


When the world falls apart, it'll be the gardeners and healers who keep us alive- NOT the politicians.

Lima beans that were shared with me, by a kind trusting soul here on WU- they are seven days old today, and will be transplanted outside within the hour.

147. beell
Quoting 146. aquak9:

When the world falls apart, it'll be the gardeners and healers who keep us alive- NOT the politicians.

Lima beans that were shared with me, by a kind trusting soul here on WU- they are seven days old today, and will be transplanted outside within the hour.




Be sure to bury the lima beans deep enough. I would suggest 24" at minimum.
The SE blob being stretched and pulled apart.


Good Morning Folks. Keeping an eye on Enawo over the weekend.............That is one slow and erratic crawl towards Madagscar over the next few days..................I would be on pins and needles at the moment if I lived there.




And trust me, the Animals on the Island are keeping an eye on the storm as well:

Image result for picture madagascar movie animals
Yes, beell - I'm sure the old decomposing WU servers that I buried out back will be great fertilizer for the beans. I buried them about 3' deep.
INVEST 90W is up in WPAC but conditions are not too favorable for this area to develop however it may try to at least be a TD.

90W INVEST 170304 0600 8.4N 136.2E WPAC 15

Quoting 140. SLU:

Someone dropped and iceberg in the eastern Atlantic. This is very unusual to say the least.


Quoting 125. RobertWC:

I am really sick of the idea that my comments , or anyone else made this site .

Make no mistake It was Dr. Masters. Period. It's his toy, he earned it. We serve at his pleasure . If he was dull flop , none of you would be whining. Cause you would not be here.

He pounded out post after post for years that were important. That's why you are here. Not because you are clever. and he is a greedy fool.

I think he's damn smart, and I for one welcome our new IBM over lords. (Insert joke face here)


I have to disagree on one point -- although Jeff made this the excellent site it is and has been for a long time, the comments are also an important part of why it is a great site -- not the self-serving off-or-near-off-topic remarks, but the real-time sharing of weather data and observations -- Jeff and Bob can't be on here 24/7 but the commenters make a very useful addition to an extremely important weather-and-climate site (they go hand in hand in spite of what some think). I hope the new format will still make these real-time weather information contributions easily possible.
Quoting 68. Patrap:








Its a manufactured consent. Given the choice, people choose knowledge. Beating on something else for being better than us is as old as evolution, and individually most of us are wise to its primitiveness. That will not apply to our politics, that will beat on someone else for us because they have implicit authority and by extension correctness. Under a flag of defending us, they will criticize truths without you and me withdrawing our support because the relationship is mutually beneficial. They get power, our ego is stroked. Its parasitism but what is cocaine for anyways?
Link

Chicago lack of snow sets 146 year record, and the trace of snow last night will be gone by noon today.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 MAR 2017 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 13:51:35 S Lon : 56:20:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 989.7mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -83.3C Cloud Region Temp : -78.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.6 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 104. BaltimoreBrian:

Account of an Extraordinary Fireball Bursting at Sea (November 4, 1749)

Just 2 pages long. Use arrow to get to next page in link.




Stories of "Saint Elmo's Fire" chasing people around the house and yard, whether fact or fiction, are quite common in the lore of the Swiss Alps.
Herge wrote in "Tintin in Tibet" about St. Elmo's Fire


Link

edit: I guess some balls of fire are not St Elmo's Fire.
JTWC updated their sat shot for today; looking much more concentrated at the core than it did yesterday but having some issues again at the moment with sheer and dry air over the N-NE-E Quad:  the most favorable sheer window still lies much closer to the Coast at the moment;




The maximum upper air divergence is finally centered somewhat near the core of the storm but getting hammered again by sheer over the NE Quad and elongated to the SE (hence the nice looking outflow band in that quadrant to the South and SE); if the sheer does not relax over the next 12 hours, we could see the core exposed again like this time yesterday:


Quoting 121. Ossqss:



Pretty much due to most past funding going into research not associated with natural climate variability. It has been warming for a very long time, but we only focus research dollars on politically/policy viewed important sources.



https://www.glerl.noaa.gov//education/pr_images/g lacier.jpg

Intereresting how my link was corrupted when orignally posted here and requires corrective action to view...... So after several attempts to correct, the image link I posted from NOAA is apparently not acceptable here, why?

LOL, you all know why.





Don't be cynical. Try posting the link like this: Link
Quoting 159. ChiThom:

Herge wrote in "Tintin in Tibet" about St. Elmo's Fire


Link

edit: I guess some balls of fire are not St Elmo's Fire.


Goodness Gracious, "Great Ball's o Fire", I concur'



Quoting 162. ChiThom:



Don't be cynical. Try posting the link like this: Link


Werks fine in Chrome, IE is His likely culprit. Or he was using the link prompt for a image. But the most likey thing, He didnt remove the s from the https://www.glerl.noaa.gov//education/pr_images/gl acier.jpg

But yeah, itsa conspiracy, LoL

Ball lightning defined:

Link
yes this is dr masters creation but to state that the comments are not an important part of this site is crazy. I have learned so much about the weather from here. If I had to say if I learned more from Dr Masters or the people that post comments it would be hands down the people who comment.
Just updated paragraph 1 of this post:

"The five-day average fell even lower on Friday, March 3, dropping from 2,113,000 to 2,106,000 sq. km."
..Little by Little, everything changes'..


Lil by lil, the air clear's
I can breathe again now


Quoting 75. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The count from this week's tornado outbreak is up to 52 as damage surveying continues. A total of 8 EF0s, 33 EF1s, 7 EF2s, and 4 EF3s have been confirmed so far. The long-lived Perryville, Missouri – Christopher, Illinois tornado is still under review for a potential upgrade to EF4. As usual, you can keep up to date with the latest information by visiting our Wikipedia article:

Link



172. beell
Quoting 151. aquak9:

Yes, beell - I'm sure the old decomposing WU servers that I buried out back will be great fertilizer for the beans. I buried them about 3' deep.

Awww, who knows, doggie. Maybe the new format will have a gardening thread. It will never be as warm and cozy as your blog (and others), but at least we can keep in touch.

Just don't mix an Information Technology item in with a comment about gardening. It may be deemed as "off-topic" and deleted.
beell- do I still have your outtie email addy? I think Rainman might try a reddit thread for us earthies... one of my goals is, if I ever get to Houston, is to MEET YOU-
anyway, I am my screen name at comcast dot net...
sorry for the removal of comments containing the banned image that poster has been banned

kotg
gonna be some weather coming tuseday and again next Monday
first landfall is soon.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
Storm Warning
TROPICAL LOW 20U
4:48 AM CST March 5 2017
================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 10.4S 131.4E or 60 km northeast of Milikapiti and 160 km north of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

A tropical low just north of the Tiwi islands is slowly intensifying and may reach tropical cyclone intensity in the next 6 to 12 hours. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and may pass close to Darwin later today. The cyclone may intensify further tonight or Monday before crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/hr may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy this morning. GALES may develop between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin from early this afternoon, and extend south to Wadeye (Port Keats) later Sunday or early Monday.

GALES may develop between Wadeye (Port Keats) and Kuri Bay during Monday.

A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone center crosses the coast this morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the Northern Territory and Kuri Bay in Western Australia today and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula, extending to the western Top End during today and to the Kimberley region tonight or Monday.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the northwest Top End during the next day or two even if the low does not reach cyclone intensity.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 12.0S 129.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 12.5S 128.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 14.5S 127.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Overland Western Australia southeast of Kalumburu
72 HRS 16.1S 124.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia south of Kuri Bay

Additional Information
=================
The system center is currently difficult to locate. Position based largely on surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, satellite imagery and persistence in past motion.

Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown renewed bursts of convection close to the low level circulation center, as well as some very strong convection that originated over the Northern Territory during yesterday afternoon and moved across the Timor Sea, however this failed to wrap into the system.

Dvorak intensity at 12Z is based on MET=2.5 using a D trend [no adjustment to MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.35 wrap yielded DT 2.0. System intensity is set at 30 knots. ADT CI=2.8.

Recent motion has been to the south southwest at 6-8 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to continue to the southwest during the next few days under the steering influence of a mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. Numerical weather prediction is in fair agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley coast Monday evening.

The low is located south of the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow from the northwestern to southwestern to southern quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the influence of moderate to high 15-25 knots easterly wind shear. However during the last 24 hours the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting any negative effects from the shear. The low is forecast to reach tropical cyclone intensity in the next 6-12 hours, assuming the disruptive influence of passing across the Tiwi Islands does not limit development.

As the low moves southwest and fully under the upper ridge, the system is forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at landfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy and Point Stuart to Wadeye, including Darwin and Wadeye of Northern Territory

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Kuri Bay to Wadeye of Western Australia and Northern Territory
the RSMC intensity forecast is just under CAT 4. Around 105-115 knots (1min avg)

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
Hurricane Warning
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENAWO (06-20162017)
22:00 PM RET March 4 2017
===============================
Northeast of Tromelin Island
East of northern Madagascar

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Enawo (978 hPa) located at 13.8S 56.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary.

Storm Force Winds
===========
extending up to 50 NM in the northern semi-circle and the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
85 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the western semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 14.1S 55.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 14.4S 54.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 14.9S 51.2E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 16.1S 48.6E - 40 knots (Depression sur Terre) Overland Madagascar

Additional Information
==================
Enawo show a pretty impressive embedded center pattern associated with extremely cold cloud tops. The lack of good microwave fix this evening has not allow to depict the improvement of the structure within the inner core. The current intensity is still on the low side of Dvorak estimates (4.0 and 4.5 resp. From PGTW and SAB or 57-68 knots 10 min winds) but match the 55 knots (10 min winds) estimate from SATCON at 1502z.

The lack of good fix enhance uncertainty on the real position of Enawo (relocated slightly southeastwards compared to the real time estimate at 1200z), but satellite imagery suggest not much change. Later tonight or tomorrow morning, the track should resume in a general westwards to west southwestwards motion as a mid-level subtropical ridge located over South Africa is expected to gradually extend south of Madagascar. At long range, thus steering flow may decay, inducing a more parabolic track towards south. A landfall over the eastern coast of Madagascar appears to be increasing likely, with a potential landfall time Monday night.

Upper level divergence should remain quite efficient specially over the equatorwards side during the next few days, allowing gradual intensification until landfall with an expected decreasing easterly constraint.

system builds in south low this am was 7f gom rtn flow inbound
In reply to comment #2 MontanaZephyr : listed below is an article on the genesis of corporations... on the last page is a sentence stating: “...it has been used to bring about a state of affairs in the commercial world which rest on neither a just nor sound basis...”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/1323013

If you think there is a morality problem with corporations now, look what the future bodes: Cory Goode came forward about the largest faction of the secret space program... In an interview with Dr. Michael Salla he states:

 Q10. You say that one of the space programs is a corporate conglomerate that runs like a fascist dictatorship that deceives personnel into signing on with false promises of a utopian like off-world working conditions. What else can you share about the corporate conglomerate in its off-world operations?

 ...This ICC-SSP has also in addition to the above information been steadily recruiting “Talent” from here on Earth. They have often shown hopeful recruits pamphlets and videos of high tech cities (usually elite subterranean cities that are located here on Earth) and told that they are going to live like “The Jetsons” and will be contributing to man kind developing technology to be released in the near future or in some cases told that the Earth is going to be hit with a “Solar Cataclysm” or “Pole Shift” that will wipe out all life. That “They are Special” (so many people are made to feel “Special” in these programs!) and so is their family. That they are being given an opportunity to save the human race (And their families) by moving to a Colony on Mars or else where to use their skills (usually their spouse has a needed skill as well) and their children will be raised and educated to become the builders of a new civilization and rebuild Earth. Those who believe what they are told and take their families to these colonies find quite a different environment when they arrive. They are met on the tarmac by Security Forces who escort their family to a 8×10 room (for their entire family, wife and kids) and the reality of their decision sets in. They are then given their “Assigned Work Duties”, as is their “Spouse”. They are informed that their children will be raised in a system (much like MILAB’s described above) where they will be educated and then provided a position in the community that best suits them and that when their children “Come of Age” they will be setup in “Arranged Marriages”. At this point they are stuck, they are slave labor and prisoners.


Quoting 139. wartsttocs:

6 degrees F this morning walking the dogs. The birds do not seem too happy outside. Record highs to below average lows, what a swing it was almost 70F just last week.


It is March in New England, for sure!
????


temps falling again now
sun is lowering down for the set
18f high today 21f
forecast low 5 but I don't think that low
tomorrow the rebound
be near 32f by late afternoon Sunday
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
Storm Warning
TROPICAL LOW 20U
7:51 AM CST March 5 2017
================================

At 6:30 AM CST, Tropical Low located at 11.7S 130.6E or 30 km south southwest of Milikapiti and 85 km north northwest of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

The tropical low is currently passing over the Tiwi Islands at below tropical cyclone intensity. The tropical low is continuing to intensify and may reach tropical cyclone intensity later this morning or afternoon, offshore from the northwest Top End coast. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop about the Tiwi Islands later this morning. GALES may develop between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin from early this afternoon, and extend south to Wadeye (Port Keats) later Sunday or early Monday.

GALES may develop between Wadeye (Port Keats) and Kuri Bay during Monday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the Northern Territory and Kuri Bay in Western Australia today and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Tiwi Islands and northwestern Top End, extending to the southwestern Top End later today and to the Kimberley region tonight or Monday.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the northwest Top End during the next day or two even if the low does not reach cyclone intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Point Stuart to Wadeye, including Darwin, Tiwi Islands and Wadeye of Northern Territory

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Kuri Bay to Wadeye of Western Australia and Northern Territory
Quoting 151. aquak9:

Yes, beell - I'm sure the old decomposing WU servers that I buried out back will be great fertilizer for the beans. I buried them about 3' deep.


3' deep? Servers as fertilizer? Are you growing deep rooting binary beans? ;) I hope that you dumped all of the troll comments from the servers before burying them. The beans taste bad if you don't do this.
Quoting 102. Ossqss:



It will be sad to see all the individuals be disappeared from this site. Including myself.


Well gosh, Ossqss. I thought that you went away long before now. I never figured you for just being a lurker now. Certainly not when I consider all of the (insert your favorite adjective here) comments that you have made here in the past. ;)
I'm going with Rogue1 for my new Drupal Discus Handle April 3rd.






Quoting 193. Patrap:

I'm going with Rogue1 for my new Drupal Discus Handle April 3rd.








Has it been clarified? Will we have to join again with new screen names?
Quoting 195. SunnyDaysFla:


Has it been clarified? Will we have to join again with new screen names?
we don't know that yet maybe just for the cat 6 section not known really at this time
1940 Los Angeles snow & ice storm in higher elevations as people in cars "thumped themselves to keep warm".

Central Park photographed before dawn on February 9, 1934, -15°F

Chicago winter traffic, Lake Shore Drive, 1926

Nervous new Cat6 Blog members awaiting shots and extreme vetting. April 3rd 2017


White House after rare November snowstorm, 1938

For VermontStorms: Woodstock, Vermont, at night under snow, 1940. Click photograph to expand.

More than 100 hundred people die from hunger in Somalia in 48 hours
ABC News, Posted about 3 hours ago
Somalia's Prime Minister said 110 people had died from hunger in the past 48 hours in a single region — the first death toll announced in a severe drought threatening millions of people across the country.
The Government declared the drought a national disaster on Tuesday.
The United Nations (UN) estimates 5 million people in this Horn of Africa nation need aid, amid warnings of a full-blown famine.
Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire on Saturday spoke during a meeting with the Somali National Drought Committee. The death toll he announced was from the Bay region in the south-west part of the country alone. ...


After drought, Zimbabwe seeks foreign help for flood victims
by Reuters, Friday, 3 March 2017 06:44 GMT
HARARE, March 3 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe has appealed for international help for victims of floods that have left 246 people dead and displaced hundreds since December when torrential rains started pounding a country emerging from severe drought.
An El Nino-induced drought last year scorched crops in the southern African country, leaving more than 4 million in need of food aid, but Zimbabweans are now having to contend with floods after receiving above-normal rains.
Minister for local government Saviour Kasukuwere said floods had swept through villages in the southern and southwestern parts of Zimbabwe, destroying roads, crops and livestock and forcing people into temporary government shelter.
Kasukuwere said nearly 2,000 people were homeless, 74 schools were damaged and 70 dams had burst. ...
Sparsely populated area
New York City at night under snow, photographed by Andreas Feininger, evening of December 27, 1947, after NYC's then heaviest snowfall on record.

Quoting 195. SunnyDaysFla:


Has it been clarified? Will we have to join again with new screen names?

Quoting 194. CaneFreeCR:

Looks like once they've been blessed by The Donald they are immune from telling Congress the truth.


I'm coming back as "The NotoriousDJ" if that is the case.

Edit: Meant to quote Sunny DaysFla's comment as well.
Would wxgeek723 have photographed Central Park from a warm building or out in the park itself on February 9, 1934? :) Does it matter that it was an advective freeze? Quite windy in fact.
NOAA Cuts Could Stymie Research, Put Lives at Risk
Climate Central, Published: March 4th, 2017, By Andrea Thompson and Brian Khan
On Friday, the meteorology community was riding a major high as stunningly high-definition images came in from the nation’s newest and much-anticipated earth observation satellite. The high came crashing down that evening, though, as the first hints of significant cuts to the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began to emerge.
NOAA oversees weather forecasting and is a major funder of weather and climate research. If these cuts — which an Office of Management and Budget document obtained by the Washington Post pegged at 17 percent agency-wide — materialize, they could significantly hamper improvements in weather forecasting and climate modeling and put the public at risk, experts warned. ...

More see link above. To watch the mentioned GOES-16 video (from a day ago) go there as well or use the link below.

RELAMPAGO GOES-16 rapid-scan animation showing thunderstorm complex near Buenos Aires, Argentina
Quoting 202. BaltimoreBrian:

For VermontStorms: Woodstock, Vermont, at night under snow, 1940. Click photograph to expand.




Looked about the same a few weeks ago, except for the cars!

Now the snow has mostly melted! Thanks for the photo!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCHE, CATEGORY ONE (20U)
10:55 AM CST March 5 2017
================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Blanche, Category 1 (993 hPa) located at 11.9S 130.3E or 85 km northwest of Darwin and 275 km north northeast of Wadeye has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Blanche has formed just south of the Tiwi Islands. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop about the Tiwi Islands briefly this morning as Tropical Cyclone Blanche continues to develop and move southwest. GALES may develop between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin from early this afternoon, and extend along the west coast of the Territory, including Wadeye (Port Keats), and west to Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia early on Monday.

GALES may develop between Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island in Western Australia later on Monday or Tuesday morning.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the Northern Territory and Kuri Bay in Western Australia today and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Tiwi Islands and western Top End and to the Kimberley region tonight or Monday.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the western Top End during the next day or two.

Dvorak Intensity:T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 12.7S 129.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 13.4S 128.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 15.8S 126.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia southwest of Kalumburu
72 HRS 16.8S 123.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia south of Cockatoo Island

Additional Information
=================
The system center is currently difficult to locate. Position based largely on surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, satellite imagery, radar and persistence in past motion.

Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown continued bursts of convection close to but just west of the low level circulation center.

Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based on MET=3.0 using a D trend [no adjustment to MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.6 wrap yielded DT 3.0. System intensity is set at 35 knots.

Recent motion has been to the southwest at 6 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to continue to the southwest during the next few days under the steering influence of a mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. numerical weather prediction is in fair agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley coast Monday evening.

The low is located under the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow from the northwestern to southwestern to southern quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the influence of moderate 15-20 knots E wind shear. However during the last 24 hours the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting any negative effects from the shear.

As the low moves southwest it remains under the upper ridge and so the system is forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at landfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Mitchell Plateau to Point Stuart, including Darwin and Wadeye, and Cape Don to Cape Fourcroy of Northern Territory and Western Australia

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Cockatoo Island to Mitchell Plateau of Western Australia
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
Hurricane Warning
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENAWO (06-20162017)
4:00 AM RET March 5 2017
===============================
Northeast of Tromelin Island
East of northern Madagascar

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Enawo (978 hPa) located at 13.8S 56.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary.

Storm Force Winds
===========
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle and the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the western semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
125 NM radius from the center, extending up to 135 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 14.1S 55.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 14.3S 54.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 15.2S 51.5E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 16.8S 49.0E - 45 knots (Depression sur Terre) Overland Madagascar

Additional Information
==================
During the night, the center of Enawo has remained embedded within cold cloud top as the cloud pattern gradually shift towards a large curved band. The current intensity is unchanged from 1800z with most of subjective and objective guidance (advance Dvorak Technique) remains at the same level.

Rare good quality available fix tonight suggest that the storm has drift northwards yesterday evening followed by a southwards drift. Overall the motion is still assessed as quasi-stationary. Enawo is delaying its westwards motion that is however still expected to take place later today. This general westwards to west southwestwards motion is due to a mid-level subtropical ridge located over South Africa that is expected to gradually extend south of Madagascar thus becoming the dominant steering flow.

Around the middle of next week, this steering flow is expected to decay, inducing a gradually southwards track. With the ongoing delayed of the westwards motion, the timing of landfall or final approach of Madagascar has been also delayed in best agreement with the very latest cycle from GFS and ifs (1800z cycle).

If the system does not suffer from a lack of ocean heat contain due to its current very slow motion, environmental conditions should remain conducive for gradual intensification until the final approach of Madagascar.
Iditarod dog race start line moved again in Alaska due to lack of snow
Race will start in Fairbanks, Alaska instead of Anchorage for a second time in three years – and for the first time, mushers may carry satellites or cellphones
Associated Press in Anchorage, Alaska, Saturday 4 March 2017 18.44 GMT
Quoting 213. barbamz:

Iditarod dog race start line moved again in Alaska due to lack of snow
Race will start in Fairbanks, Alaska instead of Anchorage for a second time in three years – and for the first time, mushers may carry satellites or cellphones
Associated Press in Anchorage, Alaska, Saturday 4 March 2017 18.44 GMT


If you are at home you are posting either very late at night or very early in the morning!
Quoting 200. Patrap:

Nervous new Cat6 Blog members awaiting shots and extreme vetting. April 3rd 2017





Im not even sure about what will happen with us the older guys with the new changes



also anyone have any current sat loops from GOES 16/R
.
Quoting 211. HadesGodWyvern:

Tropical Cyclone Blanche has formed just south of the Tiwi Islands.


DID NOT.
Winter Storm Warning
Issued: 9:58 PM PST Mar. 4, 2017 – National Weather Service

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 4 PM PST Sunday...

* timing: snow will continue overnight with a period of heavy snow
likely through Sunday morning. Snow showers to continue into
Sunday afternoon.

* Snow accumulations: 15 to 30 inches above 7000 feet with locally
up to 3 feet along the Sierra crest. 10 to 18 inches above 5500
feet, including Truckee and the communities around Lake Tahoe
and west of Highway 395 in Lassen County. 2 to 6 inches
elsewhere including Susanville.

* Winds: southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Ridge
wind gusts between 100 to 120 mph.

* Lake Tahoe wave heights: 3 to 5 feet with the highest waves
from mid-lake to northeastern shores.

* Impacts: snow and gusty winds are likely to produce significant
reductions to visibility and difficult travel, especially across
Sierra passes. Hazardous boating conditions on Lake Tahoe.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #12
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL ENAWO (06-20162017)
10:00 AM RET March 5 2017
===============================
Northeast of Tromelin Island
East of northern Madagascar

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Enawo (974 hPa) located at 13.6S 56.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
13 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
===========
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 45 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 125 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 13.9S 55.2E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 14.3S 54.1E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 15.4S 51.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 17.4S 48.5E - 55 knots (Depression sur Terre) Overland Madagascar

Additional Information
==================
During the last 6 hours, the cloud pattern continues to improve. The 0235z WINDSAT data allows to provide a quality location and confirms the westward movement. At 0600z, the Enawo center is located at south edge of the coldest cloud. Enawo is now tropical cyclone, current intensity estimation in accordance with objective analysis of SATCON.

Today, the mid-troposphere ridge south of Madagascar orients the track in a general direction towards west southwest. A landfall is estimated at the evening on Tuesday in Madagascar. After landing, moving should follow a parabolic track southwards, because of the weakening of the middle tropo ridge on Madagascar.

The resumption of system displacement and the good environmental conditions (weak wind shear, high ocean heat content ...) during the next days should allow the system to continue intensification until the final approach of Madagascar.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCHE, CATEGORY ONE (20U)
4:42 PM CST March 5 2017
================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Blanche, Category 1 (994 hPa) located at 12.2S 129.7E or 130 km west of Darwin and 230 km north of Wadeye has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
20 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Blanch is west of Darwin and is expected to continue tracking to the southwest, and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h may develop between Dundee Beach and Wadeye from Sunday evening, and extend along the west coast of the Northern Territory overnight Sunday and west to Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia early on Monday morning.

GALES may develop between Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island in Western Australia late on Monday or Tuesday morning.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Dundee Beach in the Northern Territory and Kuri Bay in Western Australia today and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Tiwi Islands and western Top End and extending to the Kimberley region tonight or Monday.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the western Top End during the next day or two.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 12.9S 128.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.9S 127.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 16.1S 125.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia southeast of Kuri Bay
72 HRS 16.9S 123.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia

Additional Information
=================
The system center is currently difficult to locate though bands curving into the center have become more apparent on radar in the last three hours. Position based largely on surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, radar and persistence in past motion.

Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown continued bursts of convection close to but just west of the low level circulation center.

Dvorak intensity at 0600Z is based on MET=3.0 using a D trend [no adjustment to MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.6 wrap yielded DT 3.0. System intensity is set at 40 knots.

Recent motion has been to the west southwest at 6 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to continue to the southwest during the next couple of days under the steering influence of a mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. Numerical weather prediction is in fair agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley coast Monday evening.

The low is located under the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow from the northwest to southwest to south quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the influence of moderate 15-20 knots easterly wind shear. However during the last 24 hours the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting any negative effects from the shear.

As the low moves southwest it remains under the upper ridge and so the system is forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at landfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Mitchell Plateau to Dundee Beach, including Wadeye of Northern Territory and Western Australia

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Cockatoo Island to Mitchell Plateau of Western Australia
The Antarctic is, as the post above shows, in a record-low state. The Arctic? Not doing so well itself:

Click for larger image:


Things are definitely out of whack at both the top and the bottom of the world. If only we had any idea at all why that is...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre


Excerpt:

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Blanche was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal five south (12.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty nine decimal three east (129.3E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)


Excerpt:

2.A POSITION 2017/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 55.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
Early spring about to wrap up here, as the trees (Bradford Pears - sigh) and shrubs that are the early bloomers have just about finished blooming and are starting to leaf out.

Little one made an astute observation the other day,

"We''ll have to change the saying to: "January showers bring February flowers"."

Enawo's development today. Click the pic to get the visible loop.

For those who enjoy blogging- you may wish to go ahead and create a user name at DISQUS. It's free.

Now if you already have Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or any other of the popular social media formats, you might be able to sign in here (when the new format starts) using those social media accounts. But if you - like me - doNOT have social media, then I suggest you go to DISQUS and create your free account so you can access DrMaster's blog in the future.

There's some folks already wandering thru DISQUS - like me...
Bill McKibben: "EPA to cut environmental education for kids by 94%. Cuz you definitely don't want kids finding out what you're up to"

From OregonLive:

Here are 42 of President Donald Trump's planned EPA budget cuts

[...]

The Trump budget, the basic outlines of which were revealed Wednesday, is not yet final, and the EPA's new administrator, Scott Pruitt, has cautioned that he will make changes. But it offers the first glimpse into Trump's vision for an agency he has attacked as a job-killer. The EPA did not respond to a call for comment.

Some highlights:

Puget Sound. Funding for restoration work in the country's second-largest estuary would be cut from $28 million to $2 million.
The Great Lakes. Funding to combat algae blooms, invasive species and other water pollution problems in the world's largest group of freshwater lakes would be cut from $300 million to $10 million.
The Chesapeake Bay. Funding for restoration in the country's largest estuary would be cut from $73 million to $5 million.
Research on endocrine disruptors. The EPA's work studying chemicals that can interfere with the body's reproductive and developmental systems would nearly be eliminated, dropping from $7.5 million to $445,000.
Diesel emissions. Since 2008, the EPA has issued grants to accelerate the country's transition from old, dirty diesel engines to cleaner burning trucks and equipment. They've been responsible for most of Oregon's progress in addressing cancer-causing diesel soot, a major air pollution source.
Beach water quality testing. The EPA spends about $9.5 million to fund state testing of bacteria levels at beaches around the country. In Oregon, it funds state testing during the summer. That would be eliminated.
The U.S.-Mexico border. Sewage and garbage from Mexico frequently sweeps into San Diego during winter rainstorms. The EPA has funded work there to slow the flood of garbage into the Pacific Ocean. Its program to address problems like that would be cut from $3 million to $275,000.
Environmental education. The EPA spends $8.7 million annually on programs to educate children. Spending on them would be cut to $555,000.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 227. Xandra:

Bill McKibben: "EPA to cut environmental education for kids by 94%. Cuz you definitely don't want kids finding out what you're up to"

From OregonLive:

Here are 42 of President Donald Trump's planned EPA budget cuts

[...]

The Trump budget, the basic outlines of which were revealed Wednesday, is not yet final, and the EPA's new administrator, Scott Pruitt, has cautioned that he will make changes. But it offers the first glimpse into Trump's vision for an agency he has attacked as a job-killer. The EPA did not respond to a call for comment.

Some highlights:

Puget Sound. Funding for restoration work in the country's second-largest estuary would be cut from $28 million to $2 million.
The Great Lakes. Funding to combat algae blooms, invasive species and other water pollution problems in the world's largest group of freshwater lakes would be cut from $300 million to $10 million.
The Chesapeake Bay. Funding for restoration in the country's largest estuary would be cut from $73 million to $5 million.
Research on endocrine disruptors. The EPA's work studying chemicals that can interfere with the body's reproductive and developmental systems would nearly be eliminated, dropping from $7.5 million to $445,000.
Diesel emissions. Since 2008, the EPA has issued grants to accelerate the country's transition from old, dirty diesel engines to cleaner burning trucks and equipment. They've been responsible for most of Oregon's progress in addressing cancer-causing diesel soot, a major air pollution source.
Beach water quality testing. The EPA spends about $9.5 million to fund state testing of bacteria levels at beaches around the country. In Oregon, it funds state testing during the summer. That would be eliminated.
The U.S.-Mexico border. Sewage and garbage from Mexico frequently sweeps into San Diego during winter rainstorms. The EPA has funded work there to slow the flood of garbage into the Pacific Ocean. Its program to address problems like that would be cut from $3 million to $275,000.
Environmental education. The EPA spends $8.7 million annually on programs to educate children. Spending on them would be cut to $555,000.

[...]

Click here to read full article.


I thought that Clean Air and Clean Water were a priority for Trump? At least that is what I remember him saying? So, he lied to us? ;)
Quoting 221. Neapolitan:

The Antarctic is, as the post above shows, in a record-low state. The Arctic? Not doing so well itself:

Click for larger image:


Things are definitely out of whack at both the top and the bottom of the world. If only we had any idea at all why that is...


According to the Supreme Orange Idiot, apparently it's because we spend too much money on the EPA. If only those damn researchers would stop telling us about all these problems they would just go away.

Can't wait to see what sort of lovely toxins and pollution start pouring into the Chesapeake. Will it become lead acetate yellow? Ferrocyanide orange? Raw sewage brown? The mystery will keep you on the edge of your seat, and definitely out of the water if you value your life.
My question is: if global warming and the nina/nino affects are changing temperatures so rapidly, can the next decade require a new type of living environment to protect life from the excessive heat that will evolve more than the water level problems?
CO2 is causing the Global Warming,,from burning fossil Fuels.

The oceans do not create the Warmth.
Quoting 229. Xyrus2000:

snip: The mystery will keep you on the edge of your seat, and definitely out of the water if you value your life.


That's what I was just thinking, even when I was a child in the fifties, they tested water for pollution, and there were days when the bacteria counts were so high that the signs were posted, to wit: "do not swim in, fish in, or touch the water" paraphrasing because I don't remember the exact wording.
That was for Lake Michigan beaches as well as some creaks that used to be good swimming spots.
Quoting 233. ChiThom:



That's what I was just thinking, even when I was a child in the fifties, they tested water for pollution, and there were days when the bacteria counts were so high that the signs were posted, to wit: "do not swim in, fish in, or touch the water" paraphrasing because I don't remember the exact wording.


How about "Keep it away from open flames"
Quoting 230. mtbudmore77:

My question is: if global warming and the nina/nino affects are changing temperatures so rapidly, can the next decade require a new type of living environment to protect life from the excessive heat that will evolve more than the water level problems?

Indeed, as severe as the threat, of rising sea levels, is - that pales in comparison to the catastrophic effects from global warming on the base life forms in the oceans and collapse of life-sustaining species on land.
On a less important note - WU's commenting system is much better than Disqus. I like that I can go from newest to oldest without the divergence of threads mudding the order.
Good Morning; as noted below by Barbanz, and as predicted by the models, Enawo has turned into as monster storm as it moves closer to Madagascar with the more favorable shear conditions; hoping that the Government there is taking action to alert most of the population which lives on that Eastern side of the Island facing the storm and basically living in the coastal plain to the coast with mountains behind them:




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 MAR 2017 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 13:37:53 S Lon : 55:24:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 985.9mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -38.3C Cloud Region Temp : -63.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 188km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.7 degrees

************************************************* ***



And there is going to be huge storm surge issue along the Bay and NE coastal region as well as flooding and mudslides from the back as the rain washes back down from the mountain areas towards the Coast again:




Enawo - Mimic-TC microwave imagery (latest 24 hours):
Thanks for posting that Patrick; unfortunately, "no limit" sounds about right as to what this storm might be able to pull off on approach to the coast in a few days.
Scene type: (pinhole) eye scene, I'd say.

Screenshot - 1600z, March 5 (Enawo, from IMD/INSAT full disk IR imagery)
Weather supercomputing ‘heads to Italy’

Excerpt:

The next-generation supercomputer that will drive Europe’s medium-range weather forecasts looks set to be housed in Bologna, Italy, from 2020.

ECMWF staff do not need to be in the same location as the supercomputing facilities and there is no plan to move them as well.
Hey Folks- looks like we're having a few transplants to the soon-to-be new format, DISQUS. Follow Pat's link at post 236 - or click on my name to come to my blog, for more complete instructions.

It's not a lifeboat- it's a LIFE.

A New Home For Us
hey pat...just making sure you got my email

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 MAR 2017 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 13:48:31 S Lon : 55:10:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 985.8mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 4.1 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -13.9C Cloud Region Temp : -61.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 188km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.6 degrees



Will look now, thanx..
Quoting 250. Patrap:

Basic Rules for Disqus.

I don't see nuthin' about LOLCATS, hahaha
Is getting vary dark to our west currently.


Spring has Sprung here. Ah-choo'
284  
WFUS54 KHGX 051748  
TORHGX  
TXC039-051815-  
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0023.170305T1748Z-170305T1815Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
1148 AM CST SUN MAR 5 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 PM CST.  
 
* AT 1148 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JONES CREEK, OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE  
JACKSON, MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SOUTHERN LAKE JACKSON, BRAZORIA AND JONES CREEK.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A  
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2891 9554 2893 9559 2908 9557 2904 9543  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 198DEG 12KT 2895 9555  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
39  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab TX Page

Main Text Page

So much for my hopes of an early Spring. A low of 4F this morning and after a brief warmup I see stuff like this from the GFS:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CST.  
 
* AT 1214 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE  
JACKSON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
LAKE JACKSON, ANGLETON, RICHWOOD, BRAZORIA, JONES CREEK AND  
BAILEY'S PRAIRIE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY  
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE  
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.  
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER, IF YOU CAN  
HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2897 9548 2900 9557 2921 9550 2915 9533  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 204DEG 11KT 2903 9551  
 
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
39  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab TX Page

Main Text Page

I'm over this winter.It was very useless and now it refuses to go away and is holding us hostage with a gun to our head.It's fighting a losing battle and at this point but wants to stick around.


Featuring: Enawo; a system west of Morocco; and the one southwest of Liberia (close to zero latitude).
Quoting 228. daddyjames:



I thought that Clean Air and Clean Water were a priority for Trump? At least that is what I remember him saying? So, he lied to us? ;)



Apparently, he actually hates clean air and water if it interferes with business.
Quoting 252. Patrap:

Is getting vary dark to our west currently.


Spring has Sprung here. Ah-choo'


Maple allergies have been bad for my wife since the last week of February here in Maryland. Another 2-3 weeks to go, then reduced allergies for other tree pollens until May.

19F this morning. A reminder it's still EARLY March.


warmup and rain 40 to 60 degree temp swing
lowest was 5 f yesterday my local morning now 24 rising be near 50 this time tomorrow
I hope commenting will be as easy as it is now. I rather enjoy reading the blog posts of the community here.

One thing I hope is added though is a notification when one quotes (or likes) a post you make in Dr. Master's blog; the way it is now can be quite problematic in trying to keep a conversation or in seeing the answers to questions you've asked previously.
Blanche has some deep convection.
Quoting 260. VAstorms:



Apparently, he actually hates clean air and water if it interferes with business.


I guess one should have asked what was meant by "it being a priority".
Quoting 264. AldreteMichael:

I hope commenting will be as easy as it is now. I rather enjoy reading the blog posts of the community here.

One thing I hope is added though is a notification when one quotes (or likes) a post you make in Dr. Master's blog; the way it is now can be quite problematic in trying to keep a conversation or in seeing the answers to questions you've asked previously.

There are notifications on the new system... maybe too many
Reminds me of the Caribbean storm from last year that had the "blob" off to the side



Quoting 244. aquak9:

Hey Folks- looks like we're having a few transplants to the soon-to-be new format, DISQUS. Follow Pat's link at post 236 - or click on my name to come to my blog, for more complete instructions.

It's not a lifeboat- it's a LIFE.

A New Home For Us
Quoting 268. nrtiwlnvragn:

Reminds me of the Caribbean storm from last year that had the "blob" off to the side






Matthew.
Quoting 269. aquak9:




aqua - is that going to be the WU site? If so, how do i select it as a "channel"? Have not quite figured that out as of yet
Quoting 271. daddyjames:



aqua - is that going to be the WU site? If so, how do i select it as a "channel"? Have not quite figured that out as of yet



try this --- https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherunderground /https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherundergroun d/
Quoting 271. daddyjames:



aqua - is that going to be the WU site? If so, how do i select it as a "channel"? Have not quite figured that out as of yet



Upper right hand side "Follow", at least that is how I have marked it.
Quoting 272. PedleyCA:



try this --- https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherunderground /Link


Thanks Ped - was not sure if that was where the Cat6 blog is going to be. Sigh, no one like change. I rather enjoyed scrolling down and seeing the variety of comments being made as it allowed me to experience things outside of my "bubble". Even those things that would send me walking away from the computer (for the sake of saving my screen from being bashed) ;)
Quoting 274. nrtiwlnvragn:



Upper right hand side "Follow", at least that is how I have marked it.


Thanks nrt!
However, still does not anser m question - I think. Will the Cat6 blog be posted at that location? Or is that where the community members have their own blogs?
daddyjames- it's a complicated answer for a question that is much more complicated than it may seem. The new platform will be DISQUS. I'm glad you found it. You can get used to it now, for when the Cat6 blog here switches over.
Quoting 277. daddyjames:

However, still does not anser m question - I think. Will the Cat6 blog be posted at that location? Or is that where the community members have their own blogs?
The Cat6 and other featured blogs will remain here. However they will be using the same platform that you find over at Disqus now.
DaddyJames- I'll answer you over there.
Quoting 279. aquak9:

The Cat6 and other featured blogs will remain here. However they will be using the same platform that you find over at Disqus now.



Ok, I think I follow you (and am following you on the other DISQUS site as well). DISQUS - reminds me of Bisquick. Now I want pancakes.
aquak9, it's good you're reconstructing the wunderground community on DISQUS. I wish all of you well--I used to be somewhat active on DISQUS. My concern is that DISQUS has been in decline for 2 years now. CNN, CBS News and Politico have all dropped DISQUS. Not that DISQUS is about to be shut down, but it is definitely shrinking. I'd feel better if wunderground had adopted a comment system that was rising in popularity, not declining.
Quoting 281. daddyjames:

Ok, I think I follow you (and am following you on the other DISQUS site as well. DISQUS - reminds me of Bisquick. Now I want pancakes.
One medieval pancake recipe is made with flour, egg whites, butter, wine and 'oranges'. Recipe and illustration from Additional MS 32085, c. 1250, British Library

B'Brian- we decided to try it, so folks could become used to using it. Maybe it really is just a lifeboat for now, I don't know. But we're trying.
I think it's good that you are trying it---you have a lot of people posting there! And DISQUS will definitely be around longer than the wunderblogs. So keep at it and have fun!
Quoting 282. BaltimoreBrian:

aquak9, it's good you're reconstructing the wunderground community on DISQUS. I wish all of you well--I used to be somewhat active on DISQUS. My concern is that DISQUS has been in decline for 2 years now. CNN, CBS News and Politico have all dropped DISQUS. Not that DISQUS is about to be shut down, but it is definitely shrinking. I'd feel better if wunderground had adopted a comment system that was rising in popularity, not declining.

Disqus, where toxic Breitbart comments live, could be next on the boycott list
02.23.17 | 1:37 pm

Our Commitment to Fighting Hate Speech
Disqus, Posted by Mario Paganini on February 08, 2017
I like pancakes....
Quoting 272. PedleyCA:



try this --- https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherunderground /https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherundergroun d/
You guys should have done that a long time ago and saved the rest of us from getting pissed off.
I hope you guys use it, and stay over there A LOT.
To continue with the off-topic discussion on pancake recipes, no one knows for sure what an 'orange' in 13th century England really was. Shipping from the Mediterranean took more than a month--without refrigeration oranges would not remain edible. Even marmalade did not exist.
Quoting 288. bwtranch:

You guys should have done that a long time ago and saved the rest of us from getting pissed off.
I hope you guys use it, and stay over there A LOT.


Oh, we'll pop on here as well . . . . wouldn't want you to miss us too much.
Quoting 289. BaltimoreBrian:

To continue with the off-topic discussion on pancake recipes, no one knows for sure what an 'orange' in 13th century England really was. Shipping from the Mediterranean took more than a month--without refrigeration oranges would not remain edible. Even marmalade did not exist.


how is that conneced to pancakes? You like marmalade on yours? didn't have maple syrup back then either.
Quoting 290. daddyjames:



Oh, we'll pop on here as well . . . . wouldn't want you to miss us too much.
Well that's fine as long as you contribute to the community and don't tie up the bandwidth with stupid junk and self serving carp.
Quoting 282. BaltimoreBrian:

aquak9, it's good you're reconstructing the wunderground community on DISQUS. I wish all of you well--I used to be somewhat active on DISQUS. My concern is that DISQUS has been in decline for 2 years now. CNN, CBS News and Politico have all dropped DISQUS. Not that DISQUS is about to be shut down, but it is definitely shrinking. I'd feel better if wunderground had adopted a comment system that was rising in popularity, not declining.


Too much vile hatred on disqus... Most places that used to use Disqus stopped... Civil Comments isn't much better.

Not to poop on water puppie's parade... Maybe managed better it would be perfect.
u seem just a little testy bw relax enjoy life
Quoting 293. Dakster:

Too much vile hatred on disqus... Most places that used to use Disqus stopped... Civil Comments isn't much better.

Not to poop on water puppie's parade... Maybe managed better it would be perfect.
Very true Dakster---that was part of why I don't use DISQUS much anymore. I'm concerned that when fanatical denier trolls become aware of wunderground's move to DISQUS and the members' DISQUS communities they will make mass troll attacks. I've seen such mass attacks before, as I'm sure you have. Wunderground might be able to handle it when someone on Breitbart or Drudge spreads the word. It would be just like them to troll a place like aquak9's though, her waking up to 10,000 hate comments from one night and a thousand more troll comments an hour from hundreds of different handles popping up faster than she can ban them. Hope that never happens.

Breitbart uses DISQUS, as barbamz noted. If you post on a wunderground member's community, don't EVER post there and let them track you back to the other places you post. Or at the least set your profile to private, as I did. I don't know much about DISQUS capabilities. If it is possible to make a DISQUS group invitation-only, then do it.
297. beell
Quoting 288. bwtranch:

You guys should have done that a long time ago and saved the rest of us from getting pissed off.
I hope you guys use it, and stay over there A LOT.


The folks that will use that particular channel at DISQUS want to retain a sense of community that developed here. Those who have kept personal blogs here at WU were never part of the whatever it is/was that pissed you off. The vast majority of those most active in the community blogs rarely, if ever, post here.

Find another source for your misplaced angst.

:)
Quoting 293. Dakster:



Too much vile hatred on disqus... Most places that used to use Disqus stopped... Civil Comments isn't much better.

Not to poop on water puppie's parade... Maybe managed better it would be perfect.
Dak- we are trying. We have mods, and will only hope that our little community's members will be kind to each other. As for what happens on other channels, well that's their problem, not ours. Please feel free to come and visit. You have a great style and sense of humor. Just think about it.
I DON'T LIKE CARP!!!

plussity-plus-plus to beell
Excellent advice from BaltimoreBrian:

Breitbart uses DISQUS, as barbamz noted. If you post on a wunderground member's community, don't EVER post there and let them track you back to the other places you post. Or at the least set your profile to private, as I did. I don't know much about DISQUS capabilities. If it is possible to make a DISQUS group invitation-only, then do it.
Very dangerous brush fire in progress just east of Fort Myers, Florida in Lehigh.

Lehigh brush fire prompts evacuations, shuts down SR-82
LEHIGH ACRES, FL -
Multiple homes are being evacuated in the area of Ruth Avenue and 42nd Street SW in Lehigh Acres due to a brush fire.

One woman tells us her home on 40th Street South is on fire.

Lee County Sheriff's officials say SR-82 will be shut down. Motorists are advised to avoid the area.

Follow
Lee County Sheriff
Link
Quoting 257. washingtonian115:

I'm over this winter.It was very useless and now it refuses to go away and is holding us hostage with a gun to our head.It's fighting a losing battle and at this point but wants to stick around.

Sorry about your winter. Come visit us out west; you could help us clear the driveway and attack the berm that the plow driver leaves behind; this last one was 3 feet high and 4 feet deep, heavy, dense stuff. this was right after I cleared 15 inches of fresh snow off the driveway. Out in the open behind my house, the snow is 4 feet deep.
Quoting 302. oldnewmex:


Sorry about your winter. Come visit us out west; you could help us clear the driveway and attack the berm that the plow driver leaves behind; this last one was 3 feet high and 4 feet deep, heavy, dense stuff. this was right after I cleared 15 inches of fresh snow off the driveway. Out in the open behind my house, the snow is 4 feet deep.
It has been very warm here in north Texas and no snow, it's all been rain and has been rather welcome. Temps are running far above normal almost every day. The peppermint has come out and the tress are budding big time. This is about 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule and I hope they don't get burned by an Arctic blast. That can happen in March here and is actually rather common. But it was the warmest Feb. I can ever remember and I guess the books back me up on that too. We had a 94 degree reading a week ago, it broke the prior record by 12 degrees! Now if that doesn't make you take notice...ya know.

Who's ready for more severe weather. Enhanced chance tomorrow.
Link
Here is my severe weather update for the next few days of severe weather.
I took a picture of the smoke from the brush fire just to my east. There's actually 3 separate brush fires in S.W. Florida at the moment.
Smoke is actually going right over my house.
Sfloridacat5, that's awful. Don't want to be breathing that!
In this Irish 1416 Labour of the Month calendar, he needed an extra hat when pruning trees in his orchard in blustery March weather. Each month has its own illustration for 'Labour of the Month'.

Spring Social Media
What is the purpose of Weather-Ready Nation?
The purpose of the Weather-Ready Nation initiative is first and foremost to save more lives and livelihoods. By increasing the nation’s weather-readiness, the country will be prepared to protect, mitigate, respond to and recover from weather-related disasters.

Who is involved in Weather-Ready Nation?
Society’s ability to prepare for natural disasters requires a societal response equal to the risk. Government cannot do this alone, which is why the NWS is leveraging its vast nationwide network of partners, and incorporating new partners who are beginning to share the vision of building a Weather-Ready Nation. Partners include other government agencies and emergency managers, researchers, the media, insurance industry, non-profits, the private sector and more.

Why is America becoming increasingly vulnerable to weather events?
The continued increase in the severity of impacts is attributable to societal changes represented in demographic trends, growing infrastructure threats, and an increased reliance on technology. U.S. population has almost doubled since 1954, which corresponds with higher property and infrastructure values. Trends such as urban sprawl and conversion of rural land to suburban landscapes increase the likelihood a tornado will impact densely populated areas.

The increased dependence on technology by both forecasters and the general public requires investments for regular updates, replacements and repairs.

More overlap in the U.S. economy means that a single weather event can have a significant effect on several industries. In fact, according to a study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, weather can vary the economic output in the U.S. by $485 billion of the country’s GDP annually. The study goes on to say that weather events affect “economic activity in every state and every sector.”
To everyone on the new place:

go to settings- looks like a little blue flower in the upper R'hand corner
go to Edit Profile

Select the checkbox next to Privacy: Keep your profile activity private!

Enawo forecast. Click to enlarge.
313. beell
Quoting 287. aquak9:

I like pancakes....


Me too.

In another 'Labour of the Month' calendar from England in 1251 when the weather was maybe milder in the Middle Ages Warm Period, it has digging/sowing and planting as March's labour of the month. Mind your toes!

What will happen if you don't keep your activity private?
Quoting 315. DeepSeaRising:

What will happen if you don't keep your activity private?


for logged out users,
Data Sharing Settings

Targeting Opt-Out

You are currently opted out of targeting and personalization. We strive to make the Disqus experience as personalized and relevant as possible for all users. In doing so, we collect non-personally identifiable interest information to deliver targeted content and advertising on websites that use Disqus as well as other websites you may visit.

Opt In

For logged-in users, when you opt in, we will remove your opt-out account preference. Log in here.

For logged-out users, when you opt in, we will remove our opt-out cookie from your computer.
Quoting 297. beell:



The folks that will use that particular channel at DISQUS want to retain a sense of community that developed here. Those who have kept personal blogs here at WU were never part of the whatever it is/was that pissed you off. The vast majority of those most active in the community blogs rarely, if ever, post here.

Find another source for your misplaced angst.

:)
I was just saying you should find a place for your misplaced content. You guys have had a free-for-all on this site for a very long time and for some reason you think that has promoted the Weather Underground. I don't think that is true at all, in fact, I think it has inhibited WU from growing further into a more professionally based system.
Quoting 313. beell:



Me too.




What WU would look like if Breitbart owned them. At Breitbart WU we kindly ask you ignore the climate scientists, all observed obvious trends of global warming, facts, all those 1/1000 year weather events every year, SST's, global sea ice levels, the mass extinction period we are in, and instead focus on ending the problem at the core of everything wrong; the EPA.
Quoting 315. DeepSeaRising:

What will happen if you don't keep your activity private?

Quoting 296. BaltimoreBrian:

Very true Dakster---that was part of why I don't use DISQUS much anymore. I'm concerned that when fanatical denier trolls become aware of wunderground's move to DISQUS and the members' DISQUS communities they will make mass troll attacks. I've seen such mass attacks before, as I'm sure you have. Wunderground might be able to handle it when someone on Breitbart or Drudge spreads the word. It would be just like them to troll a place like aquak9's though, her waking up to 10,000 hate comments from one night and a thousand more troll comments an hour from hundreds of different handles popping up faster than she can ban them. Hope that never happens.

Breitbart uses DISQUS, as barbamz noted. If you post on a wunderground member's community, don't EVER post there and let them track you back to the other places you post. Or at the least set your profile to private, as I did. I don't know much about DISQUS capabilities. If it is possible to make a DISQUS group invitation-only, then do it.

Quoting 315. DeepSeaRising:

What will happen if you don't keep your activity private?
Then anyone on DISQUS can see any place or article you posted a comment on before, so if you post on Aquak9's site they'll find it.
Medieval Science! An illustration of lunar and solar eclipses from Miscellanea Mathematica, Ireland, 14th century.

Quoting 296. BaltimoreBrian:

Very true Dakster---that was part of why I don't use DISQUS much anymore. I'm concerned that when fanatical denier trolls become aware of wunderground's move to DISQUS and the members' DISQUS communities they will make mass troll attacks. I've seen such mass attacks before, as I'm sure you have. Wunderground might be able to handle it when someone on Breitbart or Drudge spreads the word. It would be just like them to troll a place like aquak9's though, her waking up to 10,000 hate comments from one night and a thousand more troll comments an hour from hundreds of different handles popping up faster than she can ban them. Hope that never happens.

Breitbart uses DISQUS, as barbamz noted. If you post on a wunderground member's community, don't EVER post there and let them track you back to the other places you post. Or at the least set your profile to private, as I did. I don't know much about DISQUS capabilities. If it is possible to make a DISQUS group invitation-only, then do it.


There's a reason why sites like CNBC and CNN stopped using comments or Bloomberg severely limits their comments to a few editorials. Basically the collective IQ drops just like youtube comments. I could make the case why Disqus and another comment system, Newsvine, are such bad ideas and how much "fun" mods will have with a "full time job" but it'll fall on deaf ears. I'll just let experience tell all since I've seen this show before. Live and let learn. I practically stopped caring at this point anyways with anything policy related.
Update on Antarctic sea ice---the five-day trailing average of ice extent finally rose from 2.106 million km. sq. on March 3 to 2.112 million km. sq. on March 4 About time.
This may seem off topic, but an area of disturbed weather in the political atmosphere is starting to show signs of rotation: The head of the FBI tells the Justice Department to ignore the President!
Quoting 321. BaltimoreBrian:

Medieval Science! An illustration of lunar and solar eclipses from Miscellanea Mathematica, Ireland, 14th century.




Really interesting to contemplate such a thing. The author probably made his own paper, inks and pens (quills) and had to do a lot more thinking about how to diagram things (these days everyone has seen so many that the how-to comes instantly to mind, in any number of ways. back then, there probably weren't a lot of examples). Too, if the composer lived almost anywhere in Europe, in the fourteen hundreds, suggesting that things were not biblical was a dangerous undertaking.
Quoting 324. MontanaZephyr:



A Great Storm is coming
Actually 1300s. It was accepted that the moon revolved around the earth, which was true---it was also believed that the sun and all the planets revolved around the earth, which of course was wrong. The contortions people made to explain the movement of the sun and planets were amazing. The author would have had paper, quills and inks/paints provided--there were people who made such items. But it was still very labor intensive to write and illustrate a book by hand. In England an un-illustrated Bible cost the equivalent of 2 1/2 years of a free ploughman's wages in the 1300s. And when I say author, while someone may have had in his mind what the book would say, it would almost certainly have been a team of monks who actually wrote and illustrated it.
Quoting 324. MontanaZephyr:

This may seem off topic, but an area of disturbed weather in the political atmosphere is starting to show signs of rotation: The head of the FBI tells the Justice Department to ignore the President!


still forecast near CAT 4 range landfall. (around 115 kts/1min avg). About 30 hours until landfall, maybe.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #15
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL ENAWO (06-20162017)
4:00 AM RET March 6 2017
===============================
North of Tromelin Island
East of northern Madagascar

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Enawo (961 hPa) located at 14.1S 54.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
===========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.6S 53.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 15.1S 51.5E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 16.0S 49.0E - 60 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS 19.0S 46.8E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
==================
During last hours, deep convection has organized temporally in banding eye (confirmed by microwave data AMSR2 of 2124z), the eye seems to rebuild on the very last satellite imagery.

The cyclone continues its intensification and its eye seems better defined and warmer by last imagery. The west southwestern movement is now well defined.

The mid-troposphere ridge over south of Madagascar continues to orient the track in a general direction towards west southwest. This track will maintain with a relatively constant speed before the landfall, which is estimated on Tuesday on Madagascar. After, moving should follow a parabolic track southwards, because of the weakening of the mid-troposphere ridge on Madagascar. Residual vortex should transit on land towards south and dissipate.

The good environmental conditions (weak wind shear, high ocean heat content ...) during the next days should allow the system to continue intensification until the final approach of Madagascar in stage of intense tropical cyclone.

NWP appear fairly constant over several runs to suggest a landfall over the Masaola peninsula between Sambava and Sainte Marie island on Tuesday, timing remain yet quite uncertain due to the variability in the displacement speed.
332. beell
Quoting 317. bwtranch:

I was just saying you should find a place for your misplaced content. You guys have had a free-for-all on this site for a very long time and for some reason you think that has promoted the Weather Underground. I don't think that is true at all, in fact, I think it has inhibited WU from growing further into a more professionally based system.


The inability of some members to refrain from making broad, sweeping characterizations and form unsubstantiated opinions from a flawed premise is also an issue here.

You are barking up the wrong tree....woof!
334. beell
Quoting 318. DeepSeaRising:



What WU would look like if Breitbart owned them. At Breitbart WU we kindly ask you ignore the climate scientists, all observed obvious trends of global warming, facts, all those 1/1000 year weather events every year, SST's, global sea ice levels, the mass extinction period we are in, and instead focus on ending the problem at the core of everything wrong; the EPA.


Geez, I take it back.
I don't like pancakes...
Quoting 332. beell:



The inability of some members to refrain from making broad, sweeping characterizations and form unsubstantiated opinions from a flawed premise is also an issue here.

You are barking up the wrong tree....woof!
That wasn't a weather or climate post, and dogs are another site. There are also sites that specialize in false logic also.
But it really doesn't matter because the dinosaurs will be leaving soon. It was too bad, but they had to make way for more intelligent species.
Well, that's enough unless you want to hear about my new Chinese fondou recipe. See you in 7, 14, or 28 days, whichever came first or shoe last.
(...more intelligence in his little toe - )
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCHE, CATEGORY TWO (20U)
10:46 AM CST March 6 2017
================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Blanche, Category 2 (988 hPa) located at 14.0S 128.2E or 145 km west of Wadeye and 165 km north of Wyndham has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
15 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
15 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
15 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
15 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
35 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
75 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Blanche is expected to continue tracking to the southwest over the Timor Sea and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast this afternoon as a Category 2 system.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are developing on the coast between the Northern Territory/Western Australia border and Kalumburu in Western Australia. GALES may develop between Wadeye and the Northern Territory/Western Australia border this afternoon if Tropical Cyclone takes a more westerly track.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h will develop on the coast between between Kalumburu and Wyndham in Western Australia later this morning.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory and Kuri Bay in Western Australia during today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the southwest coast of the Top End and Kimberley region.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.0S 127.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Overland Western Australia southeast of Kalumburu/northwest of Wyndham
24 HRS 16.0S 126.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia about south of Mitchell Plateau
48 HRS 16.7S 123.8E - 20 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia southeast of Cockatoo Island

Additional Information
=================
Low level circulation center has now moved into range of the Wyndham radar which is allowing a good fix on the location of Tropical Cyclone Blanche.

The system showed improved organization overnight on satellite imagery as shear decreased. Dvorak intensity at 0000Z is based on MET of 3.5 with a D- trend as DT not clear.

Recent motion has been to the southwest at 9 knots. Forecast motion is for the system to continue tracking to the southwest under the steering influence of a mid level ridge to the northeast. Numerical weather prediction is in good agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley coast early Monday afternoon, Western Australia time, as a Category 2 system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Mitchell Plateau to Wadeye, excluding Wadeye
Looks like Southern CA..There is all sorts of cursing in this.
A tiny bit off-topic, but interesting, from Spaceweather.comLink

Regular monitoring of the stratosphere over California shows that cosmic rays have intensified more than 10% since 2015. Because of a recent decline in the solar cycle, more and more cosmic rays are reaching the inner solar system and penetrating the atmosphere of our planet. Earth's magnetic field should protect us against these rays, but geomagnetism is weakening. Globally, Earth's magnetic field has declined in strength by 10% since the 19th century with changes accelerating in recent years, according to measurements by Europe's SWARM satellites. To understand Earth's global response to these changes, we must launch balloons and sample radiation from widely-spaced locations. The upcoming network launch will span three continents, more than 14,000 km of linear distance, and 90 degrees of latitude.

-the paragraph refers to the launch of the Intercontinental Space Weather Balloon Network, starting March 9th.
have anyone seen barbamz or she/he already gone?
Quoting 336. aquak9:

(...more intelligence in his little toe - )
I think it's funny that I have been ridiculed for just advocated the rules that everyone sees. Which part of this do you feel like you can continually ignore? I'm sorry, but I come here for weather and climate discussion. I could give a rat's what your team is. My team is IBM, and they are going to clean this place up.
It's not doing anything for the business and as I alluded to earlier, it seems to be having a negative effect. Negative backlash is happening across all social media right now and will probably continue. The need for people to be connected is becoming less...could be from bad experiences and stress of always arguing over something. But it is going down, and, in a way, I think that's good also.
Maybe try and talk to your neighbor sometime? Maybe even about the weather.
I am in total support of the WU moving forward with new plans and changes in the format, they were long overdue. We really won't know what the new one looks like until they roll it out. Small programming differences can make a big difference. I run, and used to run a lot more, sites like this, but not this complex. This is seriously complex...you have all these feeds coming in from different sources and constant updates....man, it really is a nightmare. Neopolitan summed it up one day and I can't quote it but goes along with my feeling that they just got mired. Totally swamped by additions, patches and some duct tape, maybe too much duck tape.
But anyway, my ham license runs short and you know I don't like spam.
Quoting 339. Skyepony:

Looks like Southern CA..There is all sorts of cursing in this>
Whoa Whoa Whoa ye the inhabitants of this earth
They have this date wrong because I was here before the Moon landing, I remember that.
Sorry, the Devil made me do it. Light winds from the SE here outside of Graham, TX and the chance of rain is very low. Overall the temps should be above normal and relatively dry.
Quoting 344. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Whoa Whoa Whoa ye the inhabitants of this earth


Sorry Keep the response from the USA Right wing controlled everything is.......Burn Burn Burn Lie Lie Lie and they're laughing all the way to the bank as our government is handed over to billionaires with bad intent. People protest but if no one in government is listening then it is to no affect. We have been divided perfectly and are left powerless as a people. Just as it was drawn up. The inhabitants of this earth are in trouble. See France is about to follow suit in their election. The disease spreads faster and faster now.
Quoting 346. bwtranch:

They have this date wrong because I was here before the Moon landing, I remember that.


Grothar was here before the moon.
Quoting 348. DeepSeaRising:



QSL
so question

is member WUBlogs going to a new site or something

and is the commenting features on Cat6 blog gonna change
QSL as in someone else is listening?
Quoting 351. wunderkidcayman:

so question

is member WUBlogs going to a new site or something

and is the commenting features on Cat6 blog gonna change


Member blogs are getting archived. But not the comments, from my understanding, they just disappear. The featured blogs get wrapped into the Cat6 and comments will be allowed on the Cat 6 blog. Dr. Masters had an example of the comments on the first page of comments, WKC.
Quoting 352. DeepSeaRising:

QSL as in someone else is listening?

acknowledgement of receipt of radio message
351. wunderkidcayman
5:04 AM GMT on March 06, 2017
so question

is member WUBlogs going to a new site or something

and is the commenting features on Cat6 blog gonna change


Q: What will happen on April 3?
A: On April 3, 2017, we will remove the ability for members to create new WunderBlogs. As part of this transition, Category 6 featured blogs will change to a new format which includes a more polished look and robust commenting system. Check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved version of Category 6.

Q: Will I be able to create my own blog entries after April 3?
A: As of April 3, 2017, the ability to create a new WunderBlog will be removed; however, you will still be able to search (via username) for all previously uploaded blogs.

Q: What will happen to my previous blog posts?
A; We will archive all WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3.

Q: Can I still view previous blog posts and comments?
A: Yes! All WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3 will be viewable; however, blog comments will not be displayed.

Q: Will I be able to comment on new blogs?
A: Absolutely, you can engage in scientific discussion on the new and improved Category 6 articles.
Quoting 354. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

acknowledgement of receipt of radio message


Right lol, didn't know if there was some sinister deeper meaning to it. J.O.N., thank guy allows me to sleep soundly at night with no fear. Crazy world Keep, getting crazier by the day. Our Democracy has been completely hijacked and they are flying it to Fascist Island. And the hijackers are billionaires with golden parachutes who are untouchables. At least in this life time. The hour grows late and American's ability to critically think through facts and truth grows dim. Faster and faster now and I don't see any mechanism in place to slow it all down. People say just wait till the next election..........We'll see if we're even recognizable as the America we all once new and loved when and if we get to that day.
Several things going on here I see

I may start my new Facebook group site to take my hurricane prediction list to. I don't want to keep placing links and stuff here given people visit my blog (less than 30 days left).
Any ideas? Word began spreading around to get each others contacts as I have gotten some from WU bloggers here.

Ah, moderators keep their job? Or they are joining the exodus.



Quoting 341. 3SeaHorses:

have anyone seen barbamz or she/he already gone?
Barb is still around
Quoting 357. MaxWeather:

Several things going on here I see

I may start my new Facebook group site to take my hurricane prediction list to. I don't want to keep placing links and stuff here given people visit my blog (less than 30 days left).
Any ideas? Word began spreading around to get each others contacts as I have gotten some from WU bloggers here.

Ah, moderators keep their job? Or they are joining the exodus.




Barb is still around

Did you check out AquaK9's new site? See her WU blog for info.
Quoting 358. SunnyDaysFla:


Did you check out AquaK9's new site? See her WU blog for info.
Omg that's fantastic!!!
Didn't know that, thanks :)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #22
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCHE, CATEGORY ONE (20U)
3:18 PM WST March 6 2017
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Blanche, Category 1 (995 hPa) located at 14.9S 127.4E or 100 km northwest of Wyndham and 105 km southeast of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Blanche is now overland and is expected to weaken further during this afternoon and evening as the system moves further inland.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are being experienced between Wyndham and Kalumburu and adjacent inland areas, but are expected to ease during this evening to below GALE force.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Kimberley region.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.8S 126.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 16.8S 125.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 17.3S 122.7E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Low level circulation center evident on radar, continuing to track inland after crossing the coast at 0300Z today.

Dvorak analysis unavailable due to system being located over land.

Recent motion has been to the southwest at 10 knots. Numerical Weather Prediction guidance shows system becoming increasingly sheared from this evening as the middle-level circulation moves southwest more rapidly than the low level circulation center. Although the low level circulation center is expected to track west towards the coast again mid-week, the shear and the influence of dry air are expected to prevent re-development.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Kalumburu to Wyndham and adjacent inland areas
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #16
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL ENAWO (06-20162017)
10:00 AM RET March 6 2017
===============================
Northwest of Tromelin Island
East of northern Madagascar

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Enawo (969 hPa) located at 13.9S 53.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the southern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
===========
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===========
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.5S 52.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 15.1S 50.8E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 17.0S 48.2E - 50 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS 19.8S 46.8E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
==================
Over the past hours, the eye pattern maintained even if it is still ill-defined and shredded. Last microwave data (AMSR2 2124z and GPM 0306z) show that an eyewall replacement cycle may have occurred overnight. Thus intensification is expected to resume in the following hours. Enawo intensity was revised downwards thanks to the complete last night ASCAT swath.

The mid-troposphere ridge over south of Madagascar continues to orient the track in a general direction towards west southwest. This track will maintain with a relatively constant speed before the landfall, which is estimated on Tuesday on Madagascar. Then, Enawo should follow a parabolic track southwards, because of the weakening of the mid-troposphere ridge on Madagascar. Residual vortex should transit on land towards south and dissipate.

The good environmental conditions (weak wind shear, high ocean heat content ...) up to tomorrow should allow the system to continue its intensification until the final approach of Madagascar in stage of intense tropical cyclone.

Numerical weather prediction appear fairly constant over several runs to suggest a landfall over the Masaola peninsula south of Antalaha tomorrow. The landfall timing becomes more precise with a good agreement around midday. Antongil bay is more likely to undergo significant storm surge. It is expected to reach 3-4 meters near Maroantsetra but only 1 meter south of Antalaha.
Quoting 353. Astrometeor:



Member blogs are getting archived. But not the comments, from my understanding, they just disappear. The featured blogs get wrapped into the Cat6 and comments will be allowed on the Cat 6 blog. Dr. Masters had an example of the comments on the first page of comments, WKC.


thanks

Quoting 355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

351. wunderkidcayman
5:04 AM GMT on March 06, 2017
so question

is member WUBlogs going to a new site or something

and is the commenting features on Cat6 blog gonna change


Q: What will happen on April 3?
A: On April 3, 2017, we will remove the ability for members to create new WunderBlogs. As part of this transition, Category 6 featured blogs will change to a new format which includes a more polished look and robust commenting system. Check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved version of Category 6.

Q: Will I be able to create my own blog entries after April 3?
A: As of April 3, 2017, the ability to create a new WunderBlog will be removed; however, you will still be able to search (via username) for all previously uploaded blogs.

Q: What will happen to my previous blog posts?
A; We will archive all WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3.

Q: Can I still view previous blog posts and comments?
A: Yes! All WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3 will be viewable; however, blog comments will not be displayed.

Q: Will I be able to comment on new blogs?
A: Absolutely, you can engage in scientific discussion on the new and improved Category 6 articles.


ok umm thanks Keeps
Quoting 357. MaxWeather:
Barb is still around

Yeah, thanks, I am indeed, pretty much ;-)
And after deleting all my old personal blogs (*cry*) I was busy figuring out how Flickr is working for photos (thanks to WU member sandiquiz' new site) and Disqus for more chats (thanks to aquak9's new expat foundation).

Heavy windstorm with hurricane force is right now impacting Brittany. And it will travel on over France to the western Mediterranean:


Click to enlarge. Gusts today at 1pm UTC according to French model Arpege.

France set to be pummeled by fierce storm winds
Weather warnings are in place for large swathes of France as winds of up to 150km/hr are set to hit on Monday ...
The Local (France), March 6, 2017

Strongest gust this morning at the coast of Brittany:
193 kmh = 120 mph!

Source.

Current gusts, updating.

Cyclone Blanche brings record rains

A record 384mm of rain fell overnight at Bathurst Island's Point Fawcett.
"This smashes Point Fawcett's previous 24 hour rainfall record of 265.2mm recorded during Cyclone Carlos in 2011," a weather bureau spokesman said.


Faster and Faster
Q: What will happen on April 3?
I no longer post on WUblogs and become a reader only. Meh, most of what I say can be better said by others, anyway.
Windstorm at Brest, Brittany: click the pic.twitter.com link to watch the video:



Reports about damage, power outages etc. coming in. BTW, in France they use the name "Zeus" for the storm, in Germany it's "Yannik". Both names came from the Institute in Berlin, lol. This line of very quickly developing secondary lows is obviously a bit confusing.


Surface map from midnight (source). I'm inclined to say the bad boy is neither Zeus nor Yannik but an yet unnamed "A"-storm which developed behind both of them (see the surface analysis below from 7am). But I'm sure no expert to say, lol. (Edit: Looks like some are of the same opinion, lol).


Source.
hi barbamz...I was trying to find new rss news feeds and you always have great info. was wondering if you'd share where you get your info from. thanks
Quoting 368. 3SeaHorses:

hi barbamz...I was trying to find new rss news feeds and you always have great info. was wondering if you'd share where you get your info from. thanks

Hi, Seahorses, thanks. I get them from many, many different sites which I've collected and bookmarked during the last 10 years, or by using Google News or Twitter. In most cases I provide a "source" in my comments, so everyone is able to bookmark interesting sites by themselves.



Zeus/Yannik/A's path so far. Source: Twitter

Edit: 999 anywhere?

Edit: Fresh article:
Powerful windstorm batters France, killing at least 2
Posted by TW on March 06, 2017
Severe weather, including snowfalls and hurricane-force winds, has been affecting the central-southern and south-eastern areas of the France over the past 48 hours, causing at least two fatalities. Severe weather is forecast to continue affecting the country over the next 24 hours. The storm, named Zeus, will then exit into the Mediterranean Sea and rapidly deepen as it moves toward Italy. Severe to extremely severe wind gusts are expected this evening and tonight.
This powerful windstorm was produced by rapidly deepening cyclone coming from the British Isles toward Northern France this morning. An intense sting jet has developed within the cyclone, Severe Weather Europe reports, traveling right across Brittany, NW France. ...
370. elioe
947.6mb/107.2kt

So, if I have this straight, WU will no longer be allowing individual user blogs and comments; but it WILL allow THIS blog, and THIS blog alone, to comment? How tolerant of them.

Hells bells...while they are at it, they really should just turn off ALL commenting. It's all pretty much devolved into hysterical political lunacy, anyhow, so it may as well be a "read and move along" approach.
Good Morning; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look. Very active weather period across the US this week due to that powerful low crossing to the East and that strong dip in the Conus jet:



BS
And Enawo is going to give Madagascar a strong blow; hoping for the best for them because all of those mountain ranges are going to squeeze out a lot of flooding rains and mudslides:


Image result for map of madagascar mountain ranges
Here are a few pics of the Coast of Madagascar; looks to me like a potential disaster from this storm when it hits: what a beautiful place.............




Image result for pictures of east coast of madagascar
Quoting 1. JeffMasters:

There have been a lot of questions about what the new comment section to the blog will look like, come April. Below is an example of what it will look like, from a version we are currently testing:




Jeff Masters


LOL, got the "this is broken" icon on my screen. Also, I will not be renewing the $10.00 membership for some corporation that boots me out as a member.
Enawo tracking north of forecast track. Also growing convection around the core seems to be as healthy as it has been since its development. 120 knot?



Quoting 376. Pipejazz:


LOL, got the "this is broken" icon on my screen. Also, I will not be renewing the $10.00 membership for some corporation that boots me out as a member.


This is what it looks like.

And here is the updated JTWC sat shot for today and current shear; yup, probably 120 knots but hopefully the sheer will keep it from intensifying much more.  The lower SE Quad is being affected by incoming sheer and dryer air and that may make the difference between a Cat 2 to a Cat 3 equivalent: 




Live blog about Enawo in French, but with pics and videos (from La Reunion, actually):
[LIVE] Enawo devient cyclone tropical intense et fonce vers Madagascar

Cool sat pics of Enawo at the links below with the option of animations in the lower left bar:

Link

WV
Link
Quoting 379. 1Zach1:



This is what it looks like.


They're using Disqus then.
Kind of late and off topic, however I just had to mention something about the storms that hit Cincinnati on March 1st, have been kinda busy until now so bear with me. :P

We were under Enhanced Risk and just on the boundary of Moderate. We had storms the entire day February 28th with the storms essentially training over our area. There was some light hail but nothing too bad. The line of storms that hit that night were pretty bad, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, that rain and wind were powerful, I could barely see out my window, EMS Flash Flood Warning kept me up lol.

However on March 1st, a particularly bad storm came through, I was heading to a retreat at the time and we had just left our school when the heavens opened up, with hail! And that wind! The hail was at the very least golf ball size hail, maybe even Pool Ball size hail, I have never seen hail that big in my life and I was worried sick one of the windows was going to break.....

I think at least three tornadoes touched down in our area.

Overall February 28th-March 1st has to be the worst series of storms I have seen in my area of Cincinnati.... 2012 was bad but the tornadoes didn't really hit our area. I was in the womb when the f-4 Tornado hit Montgomery in April 1999. Cincinnati usually gets severe thunderstorms and a usual daytime summer thunderstorm but usually what is the case is that Indiana gets hit and the storms usually weaken right before hitting Cincinnati, what I like to call the "I-275 Defense Shield" due to storms seemingly magically weakening right when getting into Ohio, but it seemed that shield definitely didnt work. :]
Quoting 382. SouthTampa:

They're using Disqus then.


Correct. Will make for interesting times.
Actually, JTWC is forecasting a max of 110 knots: but note the 30 foot wave heights and potential dissipation over the Island due to the interaction with the mountains...............That is where the mudslide and flooding threat is going to be a problem.

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY-SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING TIGHTLY INTO
A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 060306Z 36GHZ GPM PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T5.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD MADAGASCAR
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. TC ENAWO IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE RAPID
DECAY. BY TAU 72, REDUCED TO A 45-KNOT SYSTEM OVER LAND, TC 09S WILL
ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
MOMENTARY PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AS IT EXITS BACK INTO THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. HOWEVER, COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM BY THE END OF
FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 09S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 30 FEET.
And the bigger picture as of 8:00 am EST: that is a pretty large eye at the moment. Cannot tell whether it is expanding due to shear and/or dry air entrainment but the core remains well insulated at the moment:





And the latest RAMMB shots. Impressive storm; looks like it has some of that "stadium effect" going on around the eye wall.




We're expecting another bad fire day here in S.W. Florida.
Currently there's a 1000 acre fire that's only 15% contained.

Yesterday we had a brush fire just a few miles from my house.
This fire damaged 7 homes in Lehigh (located just east of Fort Myers, Fl.).

Here's an image of the wild fire working its way through a neighborhood in western Lehigh yesterday.


A photo from my house in southeast Fort Myers of the same fire just to my east.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 371. nash36:

So, if I have this straight, WU will no longer be allowing individual user blogs and comments; but it WILL allow THIS blog, and THIS blog alone, to comment? How tolerant of them.

Hells bells...while they are at it, they really should just turn off ALL commenting. It's all pretty much devolved into hysterical political lunacy, anyhow, so it may as well be a "read and move along" approach.
If you poke around the internet, I think you'll find that *most* websites don't allow users to create their own blogs. In fact, I'd like to see examples of some that do. Aside from the maintenance overhead and headaches, there's one very simple reason for that: nobody comes here to read user blogs. Not mine, not yours, not anyone's. However, if you do have things to share, you can create a blog on one of the many blog hosts, then link to it in your Disqus (or whatever) profile.