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Science Debate 2008

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:06 PM GMT on February 11, 2008

The issues of global warming and climate change are important to many voters, yet the media has done a poor job asking the U.S. presidential candidates about these topics. In a study quoted by The Boston Globe, in 2007 the major TV networks asked presidential candidates 2,679 questions. Of those questions, only three were about global warming--the same number of questions that were asked about UFOs. With the presidential race narrowed down to four main candidates--Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and Barack Obama--it's time that the candidates' views on climate change be given more attention. To address this need, the four major candidates have been invited to participate in Science Debate 2008, a verbal debate to be held on April 18, 2008, at Philadelphia's Franklin Institute. The debate is cosponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the Council on Competitiveness, the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Nearly 100 leading American universities and other organizations have signed on to promote the effort, along with many prominent scientists, writers, and members of Congress. The debate is designed to discover the candidates' views on many science-related topics, such as climate change, clean energy, health care, science education and technology in schools, scientific integrity, GM agriculture, transportation infrastructure, the genome, data privacy, intellectual property, pandemic diseases, the health of the oceans, water resources, stem cells, conservation and species loss, population, and the space program.

We need your help to make this debate happen! Contact the campaigns of the candidates to ask them to participate in the debate, sign a petition to approve of the debate, or write a letter to the editor of your local paper. Chris Mooney, who authored the excellent 2007 book, Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming, is one of the leaders of the initiative, and has posted links one can use to help with these tasks, in his blog, The Intersection. Thanks for helping out!

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Excellent idea.Thanks Dr M.
Yes! Excellent idea Dr. Thanks for the update
No doubt I would watch. Though I think I already know where the candidates stand on global warming.
Sounds like a good idea to me. We all know where the stand, but it would be nice to further expose those viewpoints which may not have gotten a lot of exposure already.
Yea, we know where they stand..... they are gonna lie and tell us what they think we want to hear and then do what they want to do anyway.
I think this is a great idea! We need to have scientific research in the federal government restored to the comparative freedom it had before Bush 43. This isn't just a partisan comment--Reagan, Bush I, Ford and Nixon did not exert the level of censorship and political control over science that this administration has done. And we need to get Hillary and Obama on the record supporting freedom of research and freedom from censorship as well. There has always been (relatively mild) political pressure on government research, but before Bush 43 this was at a tolerable level.
Sounds like a waste of time. There's only one candidate that is intelligent enough to speak on the subject anyway.
That would be Obama!
Yes Doda! Just more 'hot air'...doesn't that add to GW?
That Storm system in the Gulf is really cookin'! Look at it wind up...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html
Now you're mentioning names Simon. I did not do that.....but the candidate you mentioned is not intelligent enough to read this blog.
6. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 2:50 PM EST on February 11, 2008
I think this is a great idea! We need to have scientific research in the federal government restored to the comparative freedom it had before Bush 43. This isn't just a partisan comment--Reagan, Bush I, Ford and Nixon did not exert the level of censorship and political control over science that this administration has done. And we need to get Hillary and Obama on the record supporting freedom of research and freedom from censorship as well. There has always been (relatively mild) political pressure on government research, but before Bush 43 this was at a tolerable level.


Apparently you don't work in corporate America. Hell their is 10 laws to obey just to change a light bulb. A tax on everything that has now strangled Corp. America. Vote Democrate if you want more taxes on Companies. Come on people wake up.
Good afternoon all! I have informed people here in South Florida to prepare for a severe weather outbreak for Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily Tuesday night. All Floridians need to be aware of this potentially dangerous scenario and that if you do own a NOAA Weather Radio, make sure that it is functioning properly.

From satellite imagery and computer models, I am quite worried about the potential for tornadic activity throughout the state, primarily in Central and Southern Florida as this system has not gone as far north as originally indicated by the models. This is going to be such a complex weather situation, that I don't think anyone can truly predict the final outcome.

What is everyone else seeing with this system and impacts on Florida? I would like to hear your thinking.
CCHS
I agree it looks like the low is really winding up and with the combination of a warm front from the south heading north and a cold front heading south this is going to create alot of spin in the lower levels it seems to me. I would suggest everyone make sure their weather radios are up working when you go to bed tonite.
Yes, weather radios are a definite necessity over the next three days as there are two separate severe weather opportunities. I'm thinking right now that this area in the W gulf WILL NOT combine with the front as early as expected, which is the 'most severe' scenario described by the HWO. After the Guld Low passes over central-south fl then the front will be close behind bringing the chance for damaging winds and tornadoes.



Wah Wah Weeyah
I thought it was fairly obvious where the candidates stand on the environment issues?The Republicans give a collective "%^&% you!" to the environment if helping it impedes on their precious profits,and the Democrats use it as a cover to further their own other agendas.Either way,the discussions on my site have been updated for the day. Atlantic Hurricanes
Notice the "hole" over Georgia. We need rain!
Is it unusual for the A/B high to be anchored in the area its normally located during summer time? Could that possibly affect the potential tracking of tropical cyclones in the upcoming hurricane season?
Thanks for the input. If that model comes to fruition, Lake O will get some much needed rainfall.
Good afternoon,

Everyone from Jacksonville Florida and southward need to be prepared for the possibility of Tornados tomorrow evening.......

Someone could lose their life ............so be prepared.........
Good afernoon....

Just wanted to give a heads up to folks in south florida on what could be a pretty stormy period coming up.Looking at the situation this afternoon it appears that severe weather is looking less likely for extreme south florida.The impressive squall i saw in the models last night is looking much weaker and looks to keep most of the energy to the north of the area.The thinking right now is this will be more of a rain event with a good chance of scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon hours of tuesday.

Overall look for clouds and rain to be on the increase the next 2 days.

CLICK HERE to see a good view of the developing system in the GOM.

www.AdriansWeather.com
000
FXUS62 KTBW 111823
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
123 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008

...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A
VERY ACTIVE...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...WEATHER SITUATION BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW TRACKING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
INTO THE GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE THE LOW IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOSING DEFINITION AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE LOW HOLDING TOGETHER A BIT MORE THAN THE FORECAST MODELS
ARE GIVING IT CREDIT. IN EITHER CASE THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A GREAT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO FORM
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. IF THE GULF LOW HOLDS TOGETHER
BETTER THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE.
THIS SITUATION IS BEING FOLLOWED CLOSELY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW
STREAKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF MID AND LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANING
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GENERATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ALL OF THE AREA REMAINS PAINTED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN
NORMAN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HERE IS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC...THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXIST ACROSS FL...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS FROM
THE GULF NEWD INTO THE REGION. GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. WIND FIELDS MAY EVEN SUPPORT A POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT...A LINE OF STORMS MAY REACH THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WITH WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
If the low in the GOM holds together the spin in the lower levels could be very extreme as it approaches Florida. BEWARE!
Severe weather is possible in parts of florida but the energy on the lastest models look to ride to the north of extreme miami dade and broward counties.
La Nina is STILL strengthening - in February!

All I know is that all of my love ones has been informed and my camcorder is charged and ready to go...........Everyone a great evening and spread the word
weatherboykris
I don't know if you read a post by stormw earlier this morning, but that why I'm asking that particular question. He stated how he has noticed that the A/B High has been anchored over the same area that it is usually located in the summertime. I'm not wishcasting like you believe I am. From from what I have read on this blog the last couple of years is that the A/B High plays a huge factor in the potential track for tropical cyclones. I'm just curious...
My HV20 is always ready...Nothing like HD.
. Smyrick145 4:08 PM EST on February 11, 2008
weatherboykris
I don't know if you read a post by stormw earlier this morning, but that why I'm asking that particular question. He stated how he has noticed that the A/B High has been anchored over the same area that it is usually located in the summertime. I'm not wishcasting like you believe I am. From from what I have read on this blog the last couple of years is that the A/B High plays a huge factor in the potential track for tropical cyclones. I'm just curious...

Yes the AB is huge factor when it comes to tropical cyclones but one can not always go by that alone as there are many factors at play with an approaching tropical cyclone.Steering patterns are hard to predict 2 weeks out.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Michael see if you can find a graphic like that showing the temp anomolies for the south Atlantic please :)
The formation of a hurricane depends on at least three conditions: a pre-existing disturbance with thunderstorms, warm ocean temperatures up to 80F and to a depth of about 150 feet, as well as light upper level winds that do not change much in direction and speed throughout the depth of the atmosphere.

Hurricanes are low pressure weather systems that generally form in tropical latitudes and strengthen into tropical cyclones with wind speeds of 74 miles per hour and higher. Even with today%u2019s sophisticated computer-forecasting models, a hurricane's path, strength and potential for damage cannot be exactly predicted. This is why preparing your family and possessions for the worst possible situation is always a smart move.

I got that from here, which includes global views and other areas.
STL pretty warm stuff of the african coast...
One more thing.....I have been reading the NWS Discussions for a long time and I pick up on noticable changes in their wording and elevated awareness.......Things are indeed getting interesting. IN any given major weather event, you need 8 to 10 ingredients to come together to open the door for this to happen......We are getting close and timing is all that is needed.....All the ingredients are around..........The question is.....Do they all come together at the same time like they did last Tuesday evening........Lets hope not........at least not to bad........



Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-120915-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
200 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA
HAS PLACED ALL OF FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE CATEGORY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIRST
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT BEING PULLED NORTH BY THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CROSSING THE GULF. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE SECOND WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF. IF THIS LOW HOLDS TOGETHER THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE INCREASED. MORE UPDATES ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ISSUED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$
Adrian, yes, I have been watching that warm pool off the African coast. Could help to fuel some Cape Verde storms early in the season (like around the middle of July, or more likely late July) kind of like Bertha in 1996. But that's impossible to predict, and for all we know, SAL could cool off those extreme positive anomalies.
Thanks hurricane 23
I'll be on high alert tonight and will be watching this low quite carefully during the night. Since I only have one class tomorrow, I can stay up late and watch this low develop. I have to agree with many that state that the models may be underestimating this potential severe weather event.
BayNews9 seems to be underestimating this system when compared to the other stations. Their model predicts only one line coming through at about 8 tomorrow night. I say there will be at least 3 distinct lines of weather to run across our area.
JFV, to answer your question, I always say 10 since people need to be concerned and prepared for all possible outcomes. By the way, I'm still waiting a response for my question that I posed about a month ago regarding your jacket.

Hurricane23, I am not trusting the computer models at this time as the deepest convection and energy remains in the Bay of Campeche and has already begun making its approach on South Florida. Noone should underestimate this system and the potential severe weather outbreak to come. I have informed all my friends and family to prepare.
Hmmm, question about this huge severe weather event that everyone is predicting here on wunderground...What do you guys think it's going to be like for us here in south Louisiana.

I know they are predicting a 80% chance of rain tomorrow with possibly severe thunderstorms.

Much agreed that the low in the gulf is not going to move as far north as predicted. I could see that earlier this morning when it seemed to be making more of a eastern track towards FL.

I'm thinking maybe squall line tomorrow afternoon, with some isolated thunderstorms preceeding the line? What do you guys think?


It'll hit Central and South Fl the hardest. And New Orleans should have a fairly strong line come through IMHO
I very much agree with Dr. Masters regarding the global warming and climate change..But I am afraid those issues are going to take a backseat to the issues at the present......Heck.Even the Iraq war is 4th after .Economy...healthcare....and immigration..I guess the voters are ok with all of our young heroes dying for no reason.
JFV, purely based on satellite imagery, I have to disagree with the computer models. This possible scenario has me frightened. I have to forecast widespread showers and severe storms with isolated tornadoes for South Florida, especially Tuesday evening and night. The satellite imagery itself is quite unnerving to watch as storms continue to explode. One thing I have begun to notice is the development of supercell thunderstorms on the Texas Gulf Coast. The bottomline is that this storm system has great potential to produce a massive severe weather outbreak, but the question is will the timing come together.
I'm currently taking Trigonometry/Precalculus in college. Could you reply to my question regarding that jacket? Thanks.
By no means am I trying to panic you JFV, but unlike all the news stations, I always bring up all possible outcomes so that people are not caught unaware.
Trig and precalc!? Ack, wouldnt even much attempt. lol

More power to ya cchs!
Anytime JFV. I always like to help people out. That's my purpose; to help serve people who I respect.
I find the maths and sciences to be quite easy since I'm a very anlaytical person and am able to digest data with relative ease. The pne subject I find to be difficult is English, since I hate reading comprehension.
I've taken Calc I-V(Im a senior in college)......It's REALLY tough but doable......Need any help, holla at me=)
I always feel like I am in 1st grade when I am talking to some of you guys......I sometimes think I know alot, but I guess I will stick to Scrabble and Chutes & Ladders
English and reading (even though I loathe both) I can do. Those are super easy to me.

My math skills are about the equivalent to my spanish speaking skills. Poor! Math flies over my head at about the cruising altitude of a satellite orbiting earth.

Needless to say it was almost my demise in highschool, and was the last class I took in college that I failed.

While I have ur attention cchs, could you give me an idea of what to expect here in South Louisiana (Baton Rouge area) since you seem to have a pretty good handle on what this storm may do.
Sorry for not letting you know JFV. I updated my site early this afternoon regarding the severe weather potential. I will be adding a Florida radar just for this storm coming up.


Here is the first little bit of weather approaching SWFL
And... just heard about the fire in Sebring. If the fire holds on long enough some of that smoke may blow into the bay area. Just to let you know
all of us in florida are going to have an interesting few days
Interesting comparison between December 1988 (when that La Nina peaked) and now:



Considering the lag between ENSO and global temperatures, we can expect more cooling in the coming months; GISS has January 2008 at only 0.05 degrees above normal (land temperatures at +0.22, meaning that the oceans are likely colder than normal). That is based on the NCDC's 1961-1990 base period; if you use 1971-2000, it is -0.08.
71. Inyo
Yeah, looks a bit cold in the Pacific.

Fine by me as long as it keeps doing what it has been doing, or rather, keeps NOT doing what it HASNT been doing. It hasn't been causing drought in California. However, since this La Nina is atypical, I wonder how it will affect Atlantic hurricanes. (doesn't look like the E-Pac will get many!)
This is my current thinking based simply on opinion and the GFS model-

Thanks Michael for the effort--going on an Antarctic cruise out of Buenos Aires next Tuesday, and wanted a look at water temps and deviations. Your graphic doesnt go far enough south, but thanks!
RE #70
Considering the lag between ENSO and global temperatures, we can expect more cooling in the coming months; GISS has January 2008 at only 0.05 degrees above normal (land temperatures at 0.22, meaning that the oceans are likely colder than normal). That is based on the NCDC's 1961-1990 base period; if you use 1971-2000, it is -0.08.

Michael, do you know why they use to different base lines? Is there an official explaintion that you are aware of? Also do you know which one they consider to be the official one? If you know I would appreciate it, either way thanks for the good information you post.

JER
Oh wow. The ocean temp is 1-2C below normal around the Falkland islands and the Drake Passage.
I think flweatherfreakFl is right.
Thanks Hydrus. I hope I am right bc in that case I'll see the first big Storms so far this year.
Michael, do you know why they use to different base lines?

Using different base periods would only change the anomalies, typically, using more recent periods would cause anomalies to decrease because of the long-term warming trend (or longer periods); for example, the period 1900-1999 is cooler than the period 1961-1990, which in turn is cooler than 1971-2000.

Here is how January 2008 compares to the last decade (1998-2007), which was the warmest on record:



Some things to notice - it appears that La Nina is responsible for most of the cooling globally, while China's extreme cold winter is largely due to a shift in the jetstream (notice the extreme positive anomalies to the north; people in Europe likely don't think it has been cold, considering that it was warmer than even the last decade there).

Also, here is another comparison, and a graph of how temperatures have dropped, especially since October (notice where last January stands, interesting also that 2005 had a similar drop as a weak La Nina developed):

hello Storm. Grace us with your synopsis please sir
Hi everyone

Just paying a quick " off season " visit to the blog.

The NW Caribbean is quiet and will remain so until sometime around mid to late July on average.
Not much to blog about from this neck of the woods now.
Very mild conditions and cool NE winds.
Wonderful time of year here
In the past it seems that alot of this energy and sever weather goes to central and north Florida. Rarely do we see the bulk....I hope we don't here. (Cape Coral SWFL)
83. Buhdog 8:51 PM EST on February 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
In the past it seems that alot of this energy and sever weather goes to central and north Florida. Rarely do we see the bulk....I hope we don't here. (Cape Coral SWFL)

I would expect all of the peninsula to be hit the same except for the extreme south where it shouldn't be as bad
Wow, I'm almost as anxious for Storm's synopsis as I am for the NWS discussion. LOL
Environment Canada Ice Service page has some very interesting animated loops of the northern sea-ice pack that I've been watching over the previous 2 month.

First is a loop of the arctic ice pack from September 7th, 2007 - January 29th, 2008 (.WMV file)

arctic sea-ice animation

The second is an animation of an extremely large fracture that developed in the multi-year ice in the Beaufort Sea.

Beaufort sea-ice fracture
which do you predict will be worse? First or second/third line. I am correct that the first is low pressure and afternoon heating combo.....secondly a cold front squall line...right?
Just as I say ....Storm answers before I Ask!!!! hmmmmmm
Thanks a ton Storm. ANd to answer Buhdoq's question I'll say that the warm front which should be the first event has the potential to be strong-severe, but only in a few isolated cells which may form. But I expect the most widespread severe weather to be with the cold front early Wednesday morning.
Storm,

My experience is that these fronts never make it as far as predicted and Pt. Charlotte north seem to get most of the squall energy.
Where are you freak?
58. cchsweatherman 5:40 PM EST on February 11, 2008
I find the maths and sciences to be quite easy since I'm a very anlaytical person and am able to digest data with relative ease. The pne subject I find to be difficult is English, since I hate reading comprehension.


Approach reading comprehension from an analytical perspective. It's interpreting data, same as you would interpret maps or forecasts; the only real difference is WHAT the data is. It also wouldn't hurt to learn some of the "tricks of the trade" writers use. Then you can teach yourself to recognize them in other people's writing.

It's all "reading", after all.
I'm here.
70. MichaelSTL 6:41 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Interesting comparison between December 1988 (when that La Nina peaked) and now:


Didn't I read somewhere yesterday about the PDO (Pacific Decadal Occillation, right) going into a cold phase right now? Wouldn't this make any La Nina even more intense than it otherwise be?

Also, when do you think this La Nina is likely to peak?
Threat has changed some what as i reported earlier today for extreme south dade.

.WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVR SRN PLAINS WILL RAISE EWD TOWARD ERN GULF BY WED
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE TO MID-ATLANTIC AND WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A
GOOD BONA-FIDE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, NOW LOOKS
SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE. MOREOVER...LOW LVL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SW
LONG BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE GETS HERE. AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE
PAST, WHENEVER LOW LVL FLOW TURNS SW AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE IT
TENDS TO KILL IT. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW GOOD OMEGA VALUES
WITH MODERATE UPR LVL DIV JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO, WL STILL GO
WITH THE IDEA OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
MAINLY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON MIA JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
.

My feeling is most of the significant energy will ride north of miami dade and broward counties.Still scattered thunderstorms under severe limits seems like a good bet.The rain is very much welcomed for the entire state of florida.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Hurricane...is that the Miami discussion?
STL,

Regarding #79, looking at the large anomolies along the northern Eurasian coast, I'm not surprised we saw the extent of melting over the Artic Ocean that we did last summer. Obviously it's not only the actual hotter summer temps, but also the major differences in expected and actual winter temperatures.

Interesting graphics; thanks for posting!
99. FLWeatherFreak91 9:25 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Hurricane...is that the Miami discussion?

Sure is....

It was issued earlier this afternnoon as some models have changed there tune on what we might see down here.Feel free to use my florida observation page as this disturbance gets closer to florida.
Thanks hurricane...I'm sure we'll have alot to talk about after this Storm goes by
BTW, along with 4 invests in the South Indian basin (including TCs Hondo and Ivan) and one in the South Pacific basin, there is now an invest in the North Pacific, off the Philappines. This is a good reminder that the WPac TC season runs year-round, and that La Nina years tend to enhance the chances of year-round formation due to the pile-up of warmer waters there.

NRL

Notice the Pacific SSTs . . .




where in fl are you freak
LOL. I'm in North Tampa
o i'm in port st lucie
I can't wait 'til the Storm
we havent had a severe storm in a while it's going to be cool.
mail call for Adrian.
Yes. the new update came out. I like this one more...

DISCUSSION...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO SVR
WX POTENTIAL FOR LATER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS (MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS) AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID-UPR 50S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.

THINGS STILL APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
VORTICITY FEATURE OVER THE SW GULF...AND MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE
NE ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS SYSTEM THEN PROGGED TO MERGE WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING ESE ACROSS N TX. THE INITIAL
LOW AND ASSOC JET ENERGY MAY PROVIDE THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY...
THEN ANOTHER ROUND WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROGS DO SHOW RAPID INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS
THE JET ENERGY PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ASSOC WITH BOTH
FEATURES. AS SUCH...DECENT RAIN EVENT IS NEARLY A CERTAINTY...WITH
GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ONE OR MAYBE TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS. RESIDENT NEED TO STAY AWARE AND ALERT OF THIS WEATHER
SITUATION...AND MAKE SURE YOUR ALERT FEATURE ON YOUR NOAA WX RADIO
IS TURNED ON...ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A NIGHT TIME SVR WX
EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
Anyway, I'm out for the night like a light in flight.

Hmmm . . .

Anyway, u West Coasties stay safe, and hopefully FL will get lots of needed rain without the kind of dire weather we saw last week . ..
care full what you wish for
This is a good reminder that the WPac TC season runs year-round, and that La Nina years tend to enhance the chances of year-round formation due to the pile-up of warmer waters there.

La Nina supresses activity in the Northwest Pacific though, according to Tropical Storm Risk (they attributed their ACE forecast bust to La Nina getting stronger than expected).
so i take it it's suppose to get bad later tommorow through wednesday
Just updated miami NWS Discussion!

MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING AN ISOLATED CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AND ON WEDNESDAY THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WHICH COULD FAVOR A MORE DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO.
LASTLY...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO IT SEEMS HARD TO PUT MUCH
CREDENCE IN THIS. HOWEVER...IF SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS DOES
HAPPEN...THIS WILL ALSO GIVE SOME CHANCE OF A HAIL THREAT AND ALSO
INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR A DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO.


We'll see if it all comes together tommorow.The rain is very much welcomed without the severe part.
More mail for you Adrian....the NWS must have hacked my account and spied my mail,LMAO.
For comparison, El Nino enhances NW Pacific activity - yet results in cooler water (although the SSTs are much warmer than in the Atlantic, so fluctuations are not as significant). For example, 1997 was a horror with ten Category 5 storms - including three stronger than Wilma (two even existed at the same time and underwent a Fujiwhara effect, none made landfall at that intensity though), while 1998 had the latest start on record and was one of the least active (although Cat 5 hit the Philippines).
Also of interest is that the Southern Hemisphere has had about 50% more activity to date than last year (storm numbers).
Thanks for your response Michael, I had to do a proposal for work and just got back on. Appreciate the info

JER
Taz, I could not of said it any better than that so true!!!!
Hi all, looks like we here in Florida are in for some bad weather Tuesday and Wed
So the media reflected majority of US citizens were just as concerned about UFO's as they were global warming. Seems GW theory is a hard sell when big chunk of the US is seeing relentless sub-zero temps and wind chills.
we really need the rain here so thats what i'm wishing for. Dearmas where in florida you from.
Just what the hell is that spinning weather pattern south west of Houston? It seem so...odd.
sullivanweather...thanks for ice fracture loops. It would appear by the speed at which the borken off ice moves away from the larger body that there is a force pushing the ice away once it fractures off.
rain is all we want
It's low pressure system.They spin.Funny that way.
ha, in Tampa
This is what my friend Dave Anderson from NPR says:

Take a look at this MM5 model run of surface winds.

http://mesonet.tamu.edu/scoop-cgi/ogc/wrf

No doubt it’ll be bad, based on what I’m seeing so far.

I think the severe weather could very well hold off until wednesday.Gusty winds is the main threat here the way i currently see it.
Alrighty guys...I'm off to bed. Keep the blog going so I'll have a lot to read when I go to school in the morning. 'Night
@weatherboykris

Well, sure, this I realize. But it's so miniature! And it looks angry.
so how bad do these storms look that are coming tomorrow, TS winds or is that being crazy, lol
Feb 11, 2008
A 2,000-Year Global Temperature Record

World Climate Report

Over the past decade, considerable debate existed regarding the temperature history of the Earth on the time scale of millennia. If you followed our (WCR) discussion on the subject, you know that one camp would like you to believe that the highly-publicized warming of the planet over the past century is absolutely unprecedented over the past few thousand years. This group seems to fixate on the “hockey stick” representation of the temperature history of the past 1,000 years, and they hold on to the stick in spite of evidence to the contrary. Many others have argued based on proxy evidence throughout the world that the past few thousand years include a very warm period 1,000 years ago and a cold period 500 years ago; in their eyes, the warming of the past century is not at all unusual. These folks even go on to suggest that the Earth today may not be yet as warm as conditions 1,000 years ago, despite the 100 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past century.

Several articles have appeared in Energy and Environment recently with results of considerable interest to us at World Climate Report. The first piece is by Dr. Craig Loehle who received his Ph.D. in mathematical ecology in 1982 from Colorado State University. Loehle gathered as many non-tree ring reconstructions as possible for places throughout the world. There are dozens of very interesting ways to peer into the climatic past of a location, and Loehle included borehore temperature measurements, pollen remains, Mg/Ca ratios, oxygen isotope data from deep cores or from stalagmites, diatoms deposited on lake bottoms, reconstructed sea surface temperatures, and so on. Basically, he grabbed everything available, so long as it did not rely on trees (about which Loehle and World Climate Report show “are not simple thermometers”!)

Following publication of the first article, several errors came to light regarding how temperatures were reported from the various locations. In the second paper, Loehle and co-author J. Huston McCulloch decided to re-do all the calculations, including improvements in terms of confidence intervals. The improved plot below shows little change from the graph above, although for data reasons, the last point now represents the 29-year average temperature centered on 1935. The two statistical wizards note “The corrected data continue to show the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) quite clearly.” The confidence intervals “indicate that the MWP was significantly warmer than the bimillennial average during most of approximately 820-1040 AD, at the 5% level (2-tailed). Likewise, the LIA was significantly cooler than the bimillennial average during most of approximately 1440-1740 AD.”

Photobucket

We suspect you have been living your life unaware of the articles by Loehle and McCulloch. The reason is obvious - they found evidence that temperature variations over the past 2,000 years indicate that the earth’s average temperature bounces around naturally to a larger degree than other paleo-reconstructions indicate, and further, that temperatures about 1,000 years ago were not that dissimilar to today’s temperatures. This suggests that the earth�s ecosystems are more resilient (and adaptive) than some pessimists give them credit for - not a favorite topic in the mainstream press.
Why is everyone so worried about the severe weather in Florida? I can understand because you live down there, but I mean, the SPC only has Florida under a Slight Risk. In addition to that, even if tornadoes occur within the severe storms, that does not mean you'll get the tornadoes. For most people, they have never seen a tornado in their life. And damaging winds and hail (especially the former) is what Florida deals with quite often, so I don't see what the big deal is.

Correct me if I said something wrong though. I'm always willing to accept those.
February 8, 2008

An Error In The Construction Of A Single Global Average Surface Temperature
Filed under: Climate Change Metrics — Roger Pielke Sr. @ 8:00 am
In our weblog A Serious Problem With The Use Of A Global Average Surface Temperature Anomaly To Diagnose Global Warming - Part I

under the header

“Definition of a Global Average Surface Temperature”

it is written that

“The definition of the global average surface temperature used by the IPCC and others can be expressed as

dH/dt = f -T’/λ

where H is the heat content of the land-ocean-atmosphere system, f is the radiative forcing (i.e. the radiative imbalance), T’ is the change global average surface temperature in response to the change in H, and λ is called the “climate feedback” parameter which defines the rate at which the climate system returns forcing to space as infrared radiation and/or as changes in reflected solar radiation (such as from changes in clouds, sea ice, snow, vegetation, etc).”

One of our conclusions is

“In constructing a global average of T’, its spatial distribution matters since T’ in regions with a baseline colder temperature have a significantly smaller effect on the return of heat energy to space (through infrared emission) than regions with a warmer baseline temperature.”

This weblog follows up on this subject to illustrate why this matters. First, the equation given above for dH/dt is actually only accurate for a homogeneous body which has a uniform temperature. With the Earth, this is obviously not true. Indeed, it is easy to show this.

As an example, assume a region of the Earth with a base temperature of 270K and another region with a base temperature of 300K. The difference in the outgoing long wave radiation (assuming blackbody behavior where the emission is proportional to T**4) results in a 34% greater emission from the warmer location. Adding a temperature increase of 1K to each location results in a 38% greater change when this increase is applied to the warmer temperature (i.e. comparing the difference between the incremental change in outgoing long wave radiation at the cold and warm locations).

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA....

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

A SERIES OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
AND A SURFACE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INCLUDED ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ZONE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...AS WELL...OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ELEVATING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BOATERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT ON THE WATER...OR PERHAPS
POSTPONE BOATING ACTIVITIES IN THESE WATERS.
6. StSimonsIslandGAGuy said: (7:45 PM GMT on February 11, 2008)

"And we need to get Hillary and Obama on the record supporting freedom of research and freedom from censorship as well. There has always been (relatively mild) political pressure on government research, but before Bush 43 this was at a tolerable level."

We also neet to get the candidates to support public archiving of scientific data. So many of the studies being done are under the shadow of doubt, caused by refusal of scientists to let others check their data.
Good morning StormW and JFV. Tampa looks like it could have an interesting evening.
The collision between the Cold front, warm front and the Low in the GOM is going to make an interesting event.
Those are great points.
I would very much like to know what the candidates plan to do to marshal our water resourses for people and the environment.
P.S. Thanks StormW for a focus on Florida.
GM,Storm,warning people is always the way to go,so people can keep an eye to the sky.It only takes one touch down to destroy peoples lives.
Forget climate change, we need energy independence!

More use of Coal, you can make electricity and gasoline from it and we have a lot of coal. It's time to stop subsidizing plant-based fuel fantasies that will never ever come close to any meaningful supplementation of our fuel supply.

We have a solar minimum that will not quit and both hemispheres are feeling the effects and this will not be a 'one time' cold winter, many many more to come until ole Sol wakes up from his nap (some say that will not happen until the year 2040 or later).

Climate Change is real, (always has been always will be) ...try this one on for size:

from:
NASA Finds Glacial Sediments Adding to Louisiana Coast's Sinking

Living on the Gulf Coast just 50 miles east of New Orleans, this article is shocking in several ways: 1) the sinking of N.O. is not just a recent phenom, but related to the last Ice Age (!); 2) that Ice Age ended only 22,000 years ago, or only 10 times further back in time than Christ (and only 2.5 times further back than the invention of writing); and 3) the oceans were 427 feet lower then!

It is amazing how ego-centric we are! We'd come to believe our problems here were all man-made, with origins within the last century!

We humans are supposedly going to cause the oceans to rise 3 feet in 100 years because of man-made Global Warming, yet the climate change over the last 22,000 years is vastly greater! Apparently the oceans have risen over this time more than 1 foot per 100 years, and I suspect there has been ups and downs rather than a steady state rise.

Back then, we humans existed in only tiny numbers and were still hunter/gatherers! The land below my feet was hundreds of miles inland and 500 feet above sea level. I continue to marvel at the ability of science to remind us to be humble!

While the pending South Florida weather will not be anything close to the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak, the folks down there need to keep an eye out (and NOAA radios on) as it does looks like most of the tornado potential may be in the evening/overnight hours....
StormW, do you have any area of worst concern in florida at this time.
This looks like alot of energy.
Thank you StormW you are always on top of things for us...really appreciate your dedicated work.
It appears on visible sat. that the low in the GOM is tracking further South IMO.
Starting to look nasty.
Thanks for the updates Storm. Do the coastal residents need to worry about the possibility of any type of storm surge on the W central coast given the SW winds or is this supposed to meve pretty fast once it gets pulled NW by the approaching front?
Sorry, I meant NE
The shear levels look to be extreme- increasing the tornado and wind threat. What do you guys think?
StormW: One more question. What do you see for Hernando County. Worse weather south of us? Thanks in advance for all your help.
hernando, I know the question wasn't directed to me, but I expect the entire peninsula to be under the same amount of threat. No one really knows what's going to happen yet.
Thanks FLWeatherFreak91, Guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Thanks for the input guys, looks like high awareness for the evening and tomorrow here in Palm Beach Gardens.
Dr Masters~ Would like to see this debate happen...will do what I can.


Been watching occationally recon flying some of these systems that are hitting the west coast. Hadn't in a few days but todays POD was interesting.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. TODAY'S P-3 MISSION ON TRACK P60 WAS CANCELLED BY
AOC DUE TO NECESSARY REPAIRS TO THE AIRFRAME.

SMR

What's an airframe?? & how does it break?
good morning all.... I got my weather radio ready for today and tomorrow.
Yes global warming is an important issue, but unfortunately all the current presidential candidates have drank the IPCC kool-aid. The IPCC is fundamentally corrupt according to Dr. Vincent Gray who shares in the Nobel Prize awarded to the UN IPCC.

More peer reviews studies have opposed the IPCC’s position since 2006 than support it. Growing evidence supports solar cycles being the cause of the current climate change, and if that link is correct, we are entering a period of cooling such as seen during the little ice age. We need to be burning more coal in hopes the additional CO2 will mitigate global cooling.
Am I missing something? On GOM vis sat it looks like the mess will be on West FL sooner than late this evening or tomorrow in the AM. Is the mess they are talking about and severe storm threat to FL the one that is getting set to enter LA?
Good morning all! Just getting ready for what will be a very active afternoon and night. Here in Davie, I have noticed a huge moisture surge as humidity levels have jumped substantially in the last few hours. I do agree that the low in the GOM has not moved north and appears to be tracking near due east indicating the South Florida will get the worst weather. In my forecast, I have included isolated tornadoes for South Florida for this evening through tomorrow morning as the cold front will produce a strong squall line that will clear by the afternoon. Please stay on alert and be smart if you live in Florida.
so anyone what to guess what the weather here in Tampa will look like
I don't think the solar cycle stuff is convincing at all.

Dr Gray's objection sounds silly:

My main complaint with the IPCC is in the methods used to "evaluate" computer models. Proper "validation" of models should involve proved evidence that they are capable of future prediction within the range required, and to a satisfactory level of accuracy. Without this procedure, no self-respecting computer engineer would dare to make use of a model for prediction.

No computer climate model has ever been tested in this way, so none should be used for prediction.


So 10,000 years from now we can do something? We can evaluate parts of a model.

Calling people "morally corrupt" because they dismiss absurd rants is ridiculous.
the stuff in the gulf is going to be swept up by the approaching front this evening and tomorrow morning. I looks like it could get dicey.
Dr Gray's objection is sound. The IPCC’s position is base primarily on surface temperature records and on computer models. The surface temperature records have now been shown to be corrupt in a peer reviewed study, and the computer models are just guesswork done at high speed. This is not a sound bases for hobbling the U.S. economy.
Just completed my analysis of this system. Based upon satellite imagery, it appears the front has begun to have some effect on the tropical low in the GOM as a slight northward tilt has been shown on satellite imagery. Dew points have been steadily increasing over mainland South Florida within the past several hours indicating tropical moisture from the warm front has begun to infiltrate the area. Something that should be highly noted is that wind shear has become much stronger over the system and has become undirectional. this will allow for a higher wind damage and tornado threat, primarily for Southern Florida from late this evening into tomorrow early afternoon. The convection in asscoiation with this system has shown some signs of waning, but it is normal for storms over tropical waters. The front now has developed an obvious bow-echo effect as a strong squall line has been rapidly developing as indicated on radar. I have witnessed what appears to be upper-level rotation with these cells imbedded in the line mainly in northern Louisiana. Upper level convergence has increased to a level that easily supports supercell development and I have seen the wind fields expand with this front.

Based upon my analysis, I can conclude that South Florida (and the entire state for that matter) will experience a severe weather outbreak primarily lasting from around 6PM this evening to around 2PM tomorrow afternoon as two separate storms will impact the area. I have predicted the worst weather and highest tornado and wind damage threat to be located over South Florida and especially Southeast Florida where the sea breeze will add significant fuel to these storms.

I would advise all Floridians to activate their NOAA Weather Radios and leave a television on during the night so that you can receive any warnings that may come overnight. I anticipate Tornado Watches to be posted for central and southern Florida tonight.
hobbling the U.S. economy

Fuel efficiency mandates a few years back would have saved the US auto sector. As energy becomes more critical (as it will) technology involved in its most frugal use will be what is desired.

We wouldn't be in so involved in the Mideast were in not for our Oil obsession.

I don't see any sound reason for the US to Not reduce energy consumption via mandate. From economic to strategic to environmental.

As a matter of fact Id say not acting would be disastrous form an "innovation" standpoint.
The Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates study estimated Kyoto would cost $300 billion annually and would cost 2.4 million U.S. jobs and reduce GDP by 3.2 percent.

The son of Kyoto will be far more costly. The goals of energy independence and energy efficiency are good for the U.S. However, many confuse these goals with the carbon cap and trading schemes proposed under the global warming scam. Don’t be fooled into supporting that junk science based scam
U.S. Senate Report: Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007
Senate Report Debunks "Consensus"
looks like we here in Tampa are in for some nasty weather, my radio is ready
Here we go South Florida! Let the games begin.
cchs-good analysis
It looks like a 3way collision on I4 is going to happen.
Tampa lol, that was a good one
Bill Gray is way smarter than most....but it doesnt take a genius to realize man-made GW is pure propoganda!!!LOL
Tornado (waterspout) signature east of Kennedy Space Center.
DELETED
Good afternoon JFV. Hope you are ready for a very active night.
I would anticipate the worst weather in Miami-Dade and Broward counties at two separate time periods. One occurring between 6 and 11 PM tonight and another between 9AM and 2PM tomorrow, where there will likely be the worst weather occuring.
Right now, my main concern is for Louisiana as an intense squall line with an obvious bow-echo has developed during the day with nos signs of weakening at this time.
good afternoon everyone!!!
no i got no time been busy good to hear from you
report from west central Louisiana, we had some pretty good sized hail with that squall line, but unfortunately it seems to be strengthing as it moves south.
CCHS is a secondary low forming in the GOM. It appears so to me.....JMO
Nasty cells Se of me here ...Tornado Warning for Lower Jefferson Parish..Belle Chase area.
* Tornado Warning for...
central Jefferson Parish in southeast Louisiana...
northwestern Plaquemines Parish in southeast Louisiana...

* until 1245 PM CST

* at 1209 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Myrtle
Grove...or about 14 miles south of Belle Chasse...moving northeast
at 15 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
rural Plaquemines Parish at 1230 PM CST
looks like Beaumont is gonna get slammed pretty hard too
That line moving through louisiana and into alabama has quite a bow in it,must be some nasty winds when that moves through,and the storms in Florida are building too,looks to be a bad afternoon and night for a lot of people.This has been a crazy February,its more like March or April.
Pressure is falling everywhere in the GOM
Conditions at 42003 as of
(12:49 pm EST)
1749 GMT on 02/12/2008: Unit of Measure:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 144 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 77.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 63.0 °F
hey,Tampa,how's it going,you people ready for a rough night?
One year ago tonight a F2 Tornado tore trough uptown New Orleans, Lakeview and Killed one in a FEMA trailer in Ponchatrain Park.It damaged Hundreds of Homes...severe weather and Torndaoes are not uncommon in Feb in Dixie. What made last week so terrible was the number of Long track twisters. that was unusual and deadly as we all saw.
Pat,I agree tornadoes occur in any month of the year,what has struck me this year is the magnitude of the outbreaks which resemble the spring outbreaks.
NEwx,
Never ready for a rough nite sorta like your Patriots.........lol
223. TampaSpin 7:13 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
NEwx,
Never ready for a rough nite sorta like your Patriots.........lol

lol,super bowl was more like an EF5 tornado for us
lol
ALERTA
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WOW

5 active tornado warnings. and its only 2 pm - look at the storms capable too.
227. JFLORIDA 2:19 PM EST on February 12, 2008
WOW

5 active tornado warnings. and its only 2 pm


This is looking bad for Florida because the dynamics of the Low in the GOM is not a player very much in Louisana IMO
La and Miss. are cooking right now.
Pat,I agree tornadoes occur in any month of the year,what has struck me this year is the magnitude of the outbreaks which resemble the spring outbreaks.

I am of mind that more shear, aka a persistent La Nina, is responsible. More in direction than speed. (Remember you tropical nuts shear bad for TCs, but required for Nados)

Here is the running total through Saturday as compared to the 3 previous years and a running 10-year average:
222. NEwxguy 1:11 PM CST on February 12, 2008
Pat,I agree tornadoes occur in any month of the year,what has struck me this year is the magnitude of the outbreaks which resemble the spring outbreaks.


We can expect to see a lot more... even last year was the worst since 1999 (La Nina was only just developing during the tornado season), 2008 has already had more violent (F4-F5) tornadoes than 2005 and 2006 combined:


La Nina, Warmth Mix for Tornadoes
By SETH BORENSTEIN – 5 days ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — All the right ingredients combined for Tuesday's killer tornadoes, especially warm moist air and a shifting weather pattern courtesy of the La Nina phenomenon. Just one thing was off: The calendar.

The Feb. 5 killer tornadoes — at least the 15th deadliest U.S. outbreak on record — had all the earmarks of a batch of twisters usually seen in March, said several meteorologists.

It was farther north than most February tornadoes and stronger, said Joseph Schaefer, director of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

Tornadoes do happen in February, but a study by Schaefer two years ago found that winter tornadoes in parts of the South occur more frequently and are stronger when there is a La Nina, a cooling of Pacific waters that is the flip side of the better known El Nino. In 1971, a deadlier February outbreak in the Mississippi Delta killed 121 people.

But Tuesday's weather violence, which killed at least 50 people, was noteworthy. February tornadoes usually pop up near the Gulf Coast, not in Kentucky or Tennessee, said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Howard Bluestein.

Part of the explanation is record warmth. It was 84 degrees in Oklahoma before the storm front moved through on its path of destruction. On Tuesday, 97 weather stations broke or tied records in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky — the hardest-hit states.

Meteorologists are quick to say they cannot blame global warming. There is not enough good data over enough years with weather events as small as tornadoes, to draw such conclusions.

But there were plenty of the standard ingredients for tornado formation Tuesday: a strong storm system coming from the west (this one buried parts of Colorado in snow); warm air near the ground; high winds; and warm moist air coming north from the Gulf of Mexico.

While La Nina doesn't specifically cause tornadoes, it helps shift the jet stream, pushing storms from the West and moisture from the Gulf into the necessary collision course over the South, said Schaefer.

Like El Nino, it happens every few years, and it's been changing global weather patterns for a few months now, strengthening in January, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, which monitors La Nina.

Preliminary figures for January — the numbers usually drop after closer scrutiny — show 136 tornadoes, five tornado deaths and three killer tornadoes. The average from 1997-2007 is 40 tornadoes, three deaths, and three killer tornadoes. The record for most tornadoes was 212 in January 1999.

Between 1997 and 2007, the average February has 30 tornadoes, killing 9 people. Early reports tallied 68 tornadoes so far this month.

"We're off to a big start for the year," said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the storm center.

Get used to this because the patterns that lead to tornado outbreaks seem to be here for a while, meteorologists said.

"As long as the pattern remains the same it can be very active," Schaefer said. "It's not a time to let down your guard."

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-122000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0001.080212T1924Z-080212T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
224 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...MERRITT
ISLAND...PORT CANAVERAL...CAPE CANAVERAL...PLAYALINDA
BEACH...PATRICK AIRFORCE BASE...HAULOVER CANAL...COCOA BEACH...


* UNTIL 300 PM EST

* AT 218 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PATRICK
AIRFORCE BASE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAPE CANAVERAL BY 235 PM EST...
JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL BY 240 PM EST...
9 MILES EAST OF KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 300 PM EST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE
PLACE. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED EAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF
STATE ROAD 520 AND U.S. 1 OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

Aha! See Link.

"In the case of F2 and greater tornadoes, more appear to occur during La Nina months. La Nina seasons are normally associated with warmer than average temperatures in the South, producing a sharper frontal zone between warmer air and the normally cold arctic air to the north. During this time, Deep South weather is more unstable and colliding air masses set the stage for more tornadoes. A study of the top 15 tornadic outbreaks (at least 40 tornadoes) showed that only one outbreak occurred during an El Nino event. Six occurred during a La Nina event, while the remaining eight occurred during neutral ENSO years."
It looks like the Warm front from the South heading north is very strong also.....this is not good.
STL,I think thats going to apply over most of the midwest and east.We've had more thunderstorm activity here in the Northeast than we had in the summer
Also, check out how much La Nina has affected global temperatures (notice where last January stands, and the temperature drop October)



That is also using the 1951-1980 mean, compared to 1971-2000 last month was 0.08 degrees colder than average, and 0.41 degrees colder than the last decade (which was the warmest on record):

I don't want to overplay the setup that is occuring but it seems all 3 features that will be a player THE low in the GOM, the cold front, and the Warm front heading north are all very strong features, maybe stronger that SPC have estimated as of present. JMO.
Here we go NEwx, tornado's already.
Yes TampaSpin and there is low level shear and rotation. We have seen proof of that. I think we are set for another outbreak or perhaps a little more severe situation too.
140 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 136 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
INDEPENDENCE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF AMITE...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.
140 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 140 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR MACON...OR ABOUT 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRESTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
238. NEwxguy 1:35 PM CST on February 12, 2008
STL,I think thats going to apply over most of the midwest and east.We've had more thunderstorm activity here in the Northeast than we had in the summer


Missouri has already had at least 36 tornadoes this year - above average (the record is 102 in 2006), most were on January 7 (the ones in 2006 were mostly in March; 2006 also started with a weak La Nina, though it turned into El Nino, accompanied by a big drop in U.S. tornado activity after April).
FALLING RAPIDLY........wow
Conditions at 42003 as of
(1:49 pm EST)
1849 GMT on 02/12/2008: Unit of Measure: Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 132 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
See an interesting bit on Nados and La Nina here. See the part about 1/2 down.
Really seeing a lot of energy swinging in to Se La... man its muggy here.
152 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...KOKOMO...COLUMBIA...
NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 152 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR KOKOMO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

154 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 153 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DEXTER...OR
ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Here we go again!
Storms just rolled through Baton Rouge and WOW!

I work on the 3rd floor so had a very nice view. I'd guess winds were near or above 30 - 40 mph with potentially higher gusts.

We have a medium tent on our windows...when the storm started it was so dark outside I had to cuff my hands with my face to the window to look out!

Great storm! Some of the girls up here at the reception desk said they saw something fly by the window (on the 3rd floor), and heard the building release pressure when the wind hit it.

Hope everyone fairs well through the squall line!
Thanx for the Baton Rouge update honda. We seeing it heading passed you .Were awaiting that wind shift too
255. Patrap 7:59 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Thanx for the Baton Rouge update honda. We seeing it heading passed you .Were awaiting that wind shift too


Likewise from St Tammany
Honestly, Pat, it looks like most of the convection is going to stay north of mid-Lake Pont.
That is one nasty line of T-Storms and Tornado Activity sweeping across the Mid-Gulf......Ike, if you're around in DeFuniak, be careful later today and keep us posted......
258 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MERRITT ISLAND...PORT CANAVERAL...
CAPE CANAVERAL...PLAYALINDA BEACH...COCOA BEACH...

* UNTIL 330 PM EST

* AT 256 PM EST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED DAMAGE FROM A POSSIBLE TORNADO
IN COCOA BEACH. NICKLE SIZED HAIL HAD BEEN REPORTED AS WELL. THE
STORM WAS MOVING NORTH FROM PORT CANAVERAL AT 20 MPH. AN ADDITIONAL
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH MERRITT ISLAND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AS WELL.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE
I'm in Baton Rouge as well. My cat started to freak out, was howling and wanting to be let inside.

Amazing storm. I could hear things blowing around outside and hitting the side of my apartment.
Good afternoon!

I just dont see anything severe shapeing up for southeast florida with this impressive CLOUD-COVER currently over the area.As i stated yesterday it looks like on and off rain the next 2 days.

www.AdriansWeather.com
I see those big uns on the N Shore...hope the line moves thru as showing...schools about to let out here
Possible tornado near cocoa Beach in Fla,..KSC area.
read the Meso below H23 - the clouds now are sheared off from the gulf storm.

we are up to nine active warnings including one confirmed in fla

Run the new NAM too.
Regarding Dr Masters call for increased publication of climate change issues in the press, I agree 100%. I don't want this to sound political but the truth is that Conservative elements in our country have bullied the press into minimizing the problems associated with climate change. Indeed, the official line coming out of Conservative circles is that Global Warming is only an unproven theory. This, of course, is not true. If an unusually severe cold spell hits a section of the country they will say "There, you see! There's no 'global warming'" when, in fact, a local incident of unusually cold weather does not disprove that the planet is warming overall. When Conservative pundits mouth such statements on the national news, hardly anyone challenges them. So the disinformation campaign continues while the problem of Global Climate Change continues to grow worse.
Pretty amazing to see the "warm front" lifting up over Florida triggering storms and tornadoes on the East Coast and the "cold" front sweeping across Miss and LA towards the Panhandle with the same type of activity....Don't know what the final result will be as they continue to "meet" but all persons along the Gulf and extreme SE US really need to be on alert over the next 12-18 hours........Thank God that they seem to be quickly moving fronts that will not linger behind the rush of high pressure pushing the western front through........
Exactly those clouds most of the time put a lid or should i say decrease the chances of things getting to ugly down here.We'll see but right now what i see for miami dade and broward counties is on and off rain showers which is very welcomed.
Global Warming is only an unproven theory. This, of course, is not true

What? Proof? Please show me.

Yours truly,
-Not_Religious_Enough_to_Conduct_Science_Based_on_Belief_Alone
Tornado Watch for Palm Beach County
Good afternoon to all
Storms just rolled through Baton Rouge and WOW!

I work on the 3rd floor so had a very nice view. I'd guess winds were near or above 30 - 40 mph with potentially higher gusts.

We have a medium tent on our windows...when the storm started it was so dark outside I had to cuff my hands with my face to the window to look out!

Great storm! Some of the girls up here at the reception desk said they saw something fly by the window (on the 3rd floor), and heard the building release pressure when the wind hit it.

Hope everyone fairs well through the squall line!


I had something similar down here in Prairieville, but I had hail with it too. Gusts were probably around 45-50 mph, judging by what I've seen from past tropical storms and hurricanes. The sad thing is, it's not even March or April, the peak of severe weather down here, and yet we had it that bad. Imagine how bad it could get in THOSE months. Also, another sad thing is that it wasn't even a severe thunderstorm, just a strong one. It was close to being severe, but didn't quite make it. If it was severe, my power would've probably been knocked out.
Good afternoon, W456.
256. atmoaggie 2:01 PM CST on February 12, 2008
255. Patrap 7:59 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Thanx for the Baton Rouge update honda. We seeing it heading passed you .Were awaiting that wind shift too


Likewise from St Tammany


Aggie, if your not already, your about to get raked by a nasty line that just developed quickly! It looks like it's going to sweep the entire north shore.

Watch it close.
Koritheman, Yea i hear ya, I would have loved to be at home and see it. I bet it was equally bad in Gonzales.

Your right though, usually if power doesnt go out it's not very severe.

It sure did put on a show though!
Ok so a bit late with this one. LOL

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 213 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PICAYUNE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF BUSH...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF COVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BUSH BY 220 PM CST... PICAYUNE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF MCNEIL BY 235 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES... EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3068 8939 3046 8941 3052 9009 3070 9008 TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 273DEG 46KT 3060 8998

Aggie, if your not already, your about to get raked by a nasty line that just developed quickly! It looks like it's going to sweep the entire north shore.

Watch it close.


Yeah. Wife is a nado-phobe (what is the real term for that?). I am all over it. Getting absolutely nothing done at work.
Actually, it may have been a severe storm. The TV meteorologist down here just said that in Prairieville, a chimney was blown over, hail caused damage, and something about a semi (I think), but I didn't catch that part too well.

If that's true, this is the first severe storm (from a meteorological standpoint, although other storms I've been through since then have most certainly been very bad, with one even knocking out the power) I've been through since 2004.
I had something similar down here in Prairieville, but I had hail with it too. Gusts were probably around 45-50 mph, judging by what I've seen from past tropical storms and hurricanes. The sad thing is, it's not even March or April, the peak of severe weather down here, and yet we had it that bad. Imagine how bad it could get in THOSE months. Also, another sad thing is that it wasn't even a severe thunderstorm, just a strong one. It was close to being severe, but didn't quite make it. If it was severe, my power would've probably been knocked out.


Siegen Lane lost power. Substation blew.
Koritheman, Yea i hear ya, I would have loved to be at home and see it. I bet it was equally bad in Gonzales.

Your right though, usually if power doesnt go out it's not very severe.

It sure did put on a show though!


My aunt that works at Wal Mart down there said the building shook, so it may have been worse down there, believe it or not.
Siegen Lane lost power. Substation blew.

I hope the traffic lights are up. Perkins through I-10, Industriplex, Airline will be very ugly otherwise.
Siegen Lane lost power. Substation blew.

We almost lost power here in Prairieville. But as I said, according to a meteorologist down here, it was severe in Prairieville, even if the power stayed on.
Check the records of the National Weather Service concerning the overall rise in global temperature. And if you read Dr Master's blogs about this you'll see plenty of "proof". Better still, show me proof that it's NOT happening!


Global Warming is only an unproven theory. This, of course, is not true

What? Proof? Please show me.

Yours truly,
-Not_Religious_Enough_to_Conduct_Science_Based_on_Belief_Alone
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 430 PM EST

* AT 323 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON TO LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...

BOCA RATON...
LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...
DELRAY BEACH...
VILLAGE OF GOLF...
BOYNTON BEACH...
OCEAN RIDGE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES

283. atmoaggie 2:33 PM CST on February 12, 2008
Siegen Lane lost power. Substation blew.

I hope the traffic lights are up. Perkins through I-10, Industriplex, Airline will be very ugly otherwise.


Airline is almost always ugly! Hell all Baton Rouge traffic is. Now that the roads are wet, commute home will be a nightmare!

Dont believe me? Check out our traffic cams around 5 - 6pm.


Also helpful to see how the weather looks sometimes. Occasionally you'll get good shots of the sky.
A tornado watch was just issued for nearly the entire state of florida.
I have sparce and contaminated data and a resulting theory that gravity will be reduced to 1/100th of its usual strength at exactly noon on March 1 at the Arch in St Louis for about 30 minutes. Go ahead and jump.

This leap of faith is what pro-GW enthusiasts are asking. Records contaminated by asphalt, car radiators, AC exhaust are not good enough. Should we look for ways to reduce humanity's impact on the planet? Yes. Should we go for energy fascism? Heck no. The US Supreme court would ask for a "compelling reason" to limit rights. I have not seen the compelling evidence for fascism.
Man ole man are things starting to crank up..........
I can see this area of the interstate from where I sit right now.
The cold front is moving at a pretty fast clip and looks like Gulfport/Biloxi and Southern Alabama/Mobile/Western Florida Panhandle will be next.....
Records contaminated by asphalt, car radiators, AC exhaust are not good enough.

How do you explain the fact that most of the observed warming has occurred in high latitudes, and sparesly populated areas at that? Not to mention that I doubt they have asphalt, cars, etc over the oceans (70% of the planet), as well as in many poorer countries...
HOOK on V8! Possible Tornado?
Koritheman

My aunt that works at Wal Mart down there said the building shook, so it may have been worse down there, believe it or not
.

I currently live in a trailer with my grandma down there. She was at home by herself today and must have been freaking out!
Even with a massive La Nina dropping global temperatures to 0.41 degrees below average (1998-2007), quite a few areas managed to be warmer than the warmest decade on record:

i've been lucky so far no really severe weather just alot of rain and some wind. But tonight is supposed to get nasty.
How do you explain the fact that most of the observed warming has occurred in high latitudes, and sparesly populated areas at that? Not to mention that I doubt they have asphalt, cars, etc over the oceans (70% of the planet), as well as in many poorer countries...

ALL of the "records" from those locales only go back to the first satellite-based radiometers ('79?...with very few pinpoint in-situ additions), well within the decadal cycles. Another thought here is that the early radiometers had an error greater than the net warming we are attempting to prove here.

Further, of the few in-situ observations we do have in sparcely populated areas, something like 70% of them have since been shut down. They were mostly in Siberia and Ukraine, read cold, yet those records are still used in the "global mean temperature!" This is how we ended up with the hockey stick (well, that and...oops...forgot about the mideval warm period and the little ice age).

How high would you like me to jump, Mr Gore?
I currently live in a trailer with my grandma down there. She was at home by herself today and must have been freaking out!

I can imagine. XD

i've been lucky so far no really severe weather just alot of rain and some wind. But tonight is supposed to get nasty.

There are times when you won't get severe weather even if it is forecast. Me and hondaguy can testify to that. XD

But seriously, it's possible you'll get it, so do try and stay safe.
Here in Slidell: A couple of 40 mph wind gusts, rained moderately through the convective line, now stratiform.

Liberal views on Global Warming just puts a tax on Corp. America. Liberals are the fault for the condition of Corp. America failing. Keep with the liberal views and keep taxing Corp. America to just change a light bulb has 10 laws in place. Come on people......Wow.
That line was bumpy here with lotsa thunder and plenty of 35-40 gusts for 2-3 minutes at peak..now strat here too..Uptown.Near Magazine.
First Tornado warning just issued in the Florida Panhandle north of Pensacola....
Possible vortex just west of Mobile
Nola radar with TVS signatures ..eastbound Link
Dupage severe weather warnings page Link
Spookie movie here..geeesh. NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
My wife has mild Lilapsophobia: Defined as "a persistent, abnormal, and unwarranted fear of tornado or hurricanes"
which will win out the cold front or the warm front?
We are getting a downpour in Tampa now.....ya.
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 3:25 PM EST on February 12, 2008


NOAA Weather Radio station wxj-70... broadcasting on a frequency of
162.550 mhz and serving the Melbourne listening area... and station
kih-63... serving the Orlando area on a frequency of 162.475 are both
off the air due to input problems to their transmitters. A return
to service time is not known yet. We apologize for this
inconvienence.

All the information from the NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts can be
found on our web site at: www.Weather.Gov/mlb
Tornado Warning
Statement as of 4:37 PM EST on February 12, 2008


The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southwestern Lake County in east central Florida...
this includes the cities of... Tavares... Mascotte... Lisbon...
Leesburg... Lake Harris... Lake Griffin... Lady Lake... the villages...
Howey In The Hills... Groveland... Eustis... emeralda...

* until 530 PM EST

* at 436 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 6 miles
southwest of Mascotte... moving north at 25 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Groveland by 445 PM EST...
Mascotte by 450 PM EST...
Lake Harris and Leesburg by 520 PM EST...
Lake Griffin and Fruitland Park by 525 PM EST...
Lisbon by 530 PM EST...

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
sturdy shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest
ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a strong building on
the lowest floor... in an interior room such as a bathroom or closet.
Keep away from windows. Get under a workbench or other piece of
sturdy furniture. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body.

Evacuate Mobile homes or vehicles for more substantial shelter. If no
shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low
spot and cover your head with your hands. Abandon your vehicle if the
tornado is nearby.

Lat... Lon 2896 8167 2878 8166 2837 8196 2896 8195
time... Mot... loc 2137z 201deg 25kt 2852 8196


Bragaw



Tornado warnings are popping up in central florida.
Tampa they are poping out all over the place.
320. melly
atmoaggie....I do not know your wife's situation...But tornadoes and hurricanes also make my skin crawl.....When I was a very young girl I went through a very, very, bad tornado in Xenia, Ohio..April 3rd, 1974, at 3:40 PM.... Then i got older and married, and moved to Palm Beach County Florida....... I guess my word of warning is :Don't follow me"
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A vigorous prefrontal squall continues to push southeastward across Coastal Northeast Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, the combination of warm moisture advection from the Caribbean and upper divergence ahead of a shortwave trough over the Gulf of Mexico is providing for the formation of a broad zone of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf of Mexico east 85W, the Florida Peninsula, the southeast corner of Georgia and into the Western Atlantic to 75W north of the Bahamas. Fair weather dominates across the remainder of the Gulf and the Mexican mainland-isthmus-peninsula.

Visible satellite imagery showed a slow moving frontal boundary extending from the Bahaman Islands along 26N/70W 28N/60W 30N/50W. This feature is embedded within a dry environment and thus only a thin line of shallow clouds is associated. The associated 1031 mb high-pressure system is established near 32N/70W providing additional stability and fair weather and noticeable anticyclonic flow across the area.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Very persistent winter-type weather pattern in place across the basin with very dry air in the lower to upper levels hindering any shower activity and fair weather tradewind cumulus dominates the region. Trades are near or under 10 knots and seas are light to moderate. Basically, this forecast discussion calls for very beautiful weather across the region this evening.

by W456

Storm System near Atlantic Canada



The low is getting stronger.
Wow, im being slammed. Any chance this might turn into somthing Sub-Tropical?
324. 0741
hi all it stormy here in miami but no strong storm yet
Conditions at 42036 as of
(3:50 pm EST)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1013.0 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.6 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 19.4 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 19.4 °C

The pressure was 1017.8 mb at 7am..

Wow.
bad tornado in Xenia, Ohio..April 3rd, 1974

Wow. THE outbreak. The stuff of term papers.

My wife has no experiences to base it off of. She just has this excessive nervousness whenever a t-strom passes nearby. It's not all bad. She'll never be caught unawares. Plus, maybe that is why she keeps her meteorologist husband around ;)
A big vortex in NOrth East Hillsborough county east of tampa......look out.
Pasco county look out it is coming at you.
NOLA radar looked wicked there for a while. Pat, you've moved into my stompin' ground! Good to see you around. Hope you're feelin' loads better!
Local News Story in Baton Rouge...

Weather delays EBRP school buses

Advocate staff report
Published: Feb 12, 2008

Heavy thunderstorms this afternoon are delaying East Baton Rouge Parish school buses in bringing some students home, said Chris Trahan, a school system spokesman.

Schools in the northern part of the parish can expect heavy delays due to downed trees and power lines in that area, Trahan said, while schools elsewhere can expect moderate delays due to heavier than normal traffic.

He said all available buses are in use to try to shorten the delays.
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the Scientific update good to know when it comes poll time.
The JTWC just declared 19S (off Australia; notice all of the -90*C tops)...



Last year they (Southern Hemisphere) were only up to 13 storms at this time. 2008 looks like it could be a much more active year for global tropical cyclone activity.
Good pics of the storms in this article from a local news station.

Check out the article and pics HERE
Good evening!

I hope everyone in Florida stay safe tonight, keep out your Weather Radios!

evening all, my radios ready
Hondaguy, Where are you located in Florida?
337. stormdude77 4:54 PM CST on February 12, 2008
Hondaguy, Where are you located in Florida?


Baton Rouge, Louisiana here! :-) All the stuff I'm posting is here in BR, not FL.

Although back in the day, and I mean eons ago, I lived in Ft. Lauderdale.

Tampa here getting dark again
port st lucie here its cloudy and windy
The NOAA weather radios in Melbourne & Orlando, FL are still not working. The static has only gotten worse.
South florida meaning miami dade and broward counties look ok to me as far as severe weather goes with scattered thunderstorms in the forcast tonight remaining under severe limits in my opinion..Tommorow could be a different story as the squall line pushes in.

Should be in a weaking state when it makes it into the area.

here in Riverview which is 15 mins from Tampa, The clouds are getting very dark....long night
Oh, Keep us updated as the night goes on...
WEDNESDAY...S/W OVER TX WILL DIG SE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY BY 18Z. A SQUALL
LINE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT AND MOVING THROUGH S. FL
WED AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS, HOW STRONG THIS SQUALL LINE IS
GOING TO BE WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MDLS SHOW LOW LVL
WINDS VEERING TO SW AHEAD OF THE LINE DISRUPTING THE INFLOW AND
WEAKENING THE LINE.
Hey H23, Did you get my mail?
347. stormdude77 6:09 PM EST on February 12, 2008
Hey H23, Did you get my mail?

Nah buddy...Send it to me again.
349. melly
Very quiet in Palm Beach county Florida at the moment.......Just one strong line moving north around 3:45 pm....Looks ok for awhile
350. melly
I think West Palm area is ok for many hours......I heard Cocoa Beach had some damage
351. melly
If we get any heavy rain, I hope it is over Lake Okeechobee....It is still very low
Yea! Got Rain, and got off work. Looks like I may have some waves coming my way GOM/SRQ. On the look out. Back to the kitchen, will check in later
353. melly
surfmom.......I have to ask..........."What is for supper"?
Check you mail now, H23...
355. 0741
it getting dry here a bit in miami area
356. P451
Not that I am dealing with anything remotely as dangerous as parts of the south are tonight but as a weather fan I am witnessing something unique. I know it will not last but after about 1.5" of snow - we're now getting sleet pellets - but - it is absolutely POURING SLEET. I mean these things are running down the driveway and off the roof and down the gutters like a salt shaker poured wide open upside down.

I don't recall anything like this in the past.

Incidentally, this time last year + 2 days I was in the heart of that valentines day ice storm - where the temperature hovered around 22 degrees while it absolutely poured rain. I lost every tree in my yard. Every few minutes one of my own - or a neighbors - would make that explosive crackling and crashing sound on it's way down to the ground. That was something else!

Well, you fellas in the south and in Florida stay safe as you wait out this severe push!

As of now there's been 7 Tornadoes, 44 wind, and 28 hail reports.

I see one right in Brevard just north of where I once lived for a spell. Hope it was nothing serious more than a spotted funnel.
Local weather forecasters have been showing a hook echo on the local news here in the S.W. Florida area (Port Charlotte).
Tornado warnings have been issued for this storm moving N.E.
358. melly
Looking at the local radar for West Palm beach..Looks like nothing in the area for quite awhile
359. 0741
P451 were you at? you going get strong Sfloridacat5 tonight
360. P451
0741, I am located in central jersey... here's an image of what I am getting (yellow circle is where I am). It's really neat but it's starting to wane. When I mean pouring sleet I'm not kidding... the stuff is so heavy it's flowing like rain down the driveway and out the gutters but it's all ice pellets.

The 850 vort is picking up the Gulf low now.

Station 42002 - W GULF 240 nm South-Southeast of Sabine, TX

GRAPH


The really bad stuff is offshore now.
where everyone go ?
I'm still here lurking...
some nasty weather is approaching south of naples florida.
In case some of you might not know, you can follow watches, warnings etc (Associated with the severe weather), here on the WU Severe Weather page.
366. P451
Wow, that is one nasty looking cell taking aim on SW Florida!!!!



Thanks for the update, JFlorida! All Floridians, in SW Florida, prepare your self.....
369. P451
Wow, amazing rotation in that cell off of SW Florida. Hope it dissipates before it reaches the coast!!!!

369. P451 12:45 AM GMT on February 13, 2008
Wow, amazing rotation in that cell off of SW Florida. Hope it dissipates before it reaches the coast!!!!



True! zoom in on that cell and it is pretty amazing.
Two new Discussions:

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

VALID 122349Z - 130145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 52 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SERN AL THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE.

EARLY THIS EVENING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL AL
NEAR MONTGOMERY SWD TO NEAR PENSACOLA FL AND FARTHER SWD INTO THE
CNTRL GULF. THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. A FEW DISCRETE
CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE LIFTING NEWD. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONE
OF BEST INSTABILITY WITH AN AXIS OF MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO S CNTRL AL. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
RUC AND NAM SOUNDING SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRYER AND LESS
UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SRN GA. MOREOVER...PRIMARY LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT STORMS MAY BEGIN TO SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. IN THE
MEANTIME...DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND.



And

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...

VALID 130041Z - 130245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA.

WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A
ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATTENDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE ERN GULF. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS N CNTRL FL FROM
JUST SOUTH OF DAYTONA BEACH TO NORTH OF ST PETERSBURG. RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S RESIDES
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM MIAMI AND TAMPA SHOW
DEEP...MOIST PROFILES WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH A TALL...SKINNY
MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. VWP DATA SHOW DEEP SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35
TO 40 KT AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2.
SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES IS EXPECTED AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
That storm SW of Naples has 38000 feet cloud tops and 1" hail.
That storm sure has a lot of Lightening in it.

The NW fla storms almost have none
Wouldn't that warrant a svr t'storm warning? I don't see anything posted.
Yea if you look at the velocity radar, it sure is setting up to be a big wind event!
ok - so i'm not sure - put in our zip code and it always gives us a warning - we are in Savannah and the warning says keep your weather radio on. I see all that is hitting below us and to the west of us but will it hit here (I am thirty miles south of savannah).

uh oh...

Mel what county are you in?
Inland Bryan
I'm not sure mel, here is the forecast for Bryan county
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Nicholas Category One [980 hPa] located near 14.9S 119.8E or 430 kms northwest of Broome and 620 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: 3.0

The system has intensified overnight and reached cyclone intensity this morning.
Further intensification is expected and Nicholas is likely to become a severe
tropical cyclone in the coming days.

Nicholas is expected to show slow movement
over the next day or so before moving towards the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas today, however, it is possible gales could develop in coastal areas between Pardoo and Kuri Bay later on Thursday or on Friday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the Pilbara coast west of Pardoo is not under threat in the next 48 hours, it is at risk of severe cyclone impact over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
-----------------------------------
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Kuri Bay.

The Cyclone Watch from Kuri Bay to Kalumburu is now cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
----------------------
12 HRS: 15.2S 120.0E - 50 knots [CAT 2]
24 HRS: 15.6S 119.4E - 85 knots [CAT 3]

--
JTWC Tropical Cyclone 19S
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
432 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>044-047-131000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND JASPER-
432 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO MAKE SURE THEIR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO ALL HAZARDS ALERT FUNCTION IS TURNED ON TO ENSURE THAT IF
ANY WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THEN THEY WILL BE RECEIVED AND YOUR RADIO
WILL ALARM.

Statement as of 8:03 PM EST on February 12, 2008


... Very strong thunderstorm approaching western Collier County...

At 759 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
very strong thunderstorm 29 miles southwest of Cape Romano... moving
northeast at 35 to 40 mph.

This storm will affect...

Cape Romano...
Marco Island...
Marco Island Airport...
fiddlers creek...
west Toll Gate on Alligator alley...
Picayune Strand state Forest...

And surrounding communities.

Frequent to excessive lightning... gusty winds to at least 50 mph... pea-sized
hail... torrential downpours... or a combination of these are possible.
Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees
and open shelters offer no protection. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph can
down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around unsecured small
objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

Also... this storm is showing signs of rotation and the environment
is favorable for the development of tornadoes.


Residents near the path of this very strong storm should remain on the
alert for additional statements and possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EST Tuesday evening
for southern Florida.

Lat... Lon 2632 8169 2632 8166 2636 8165 2622 8141
2594 8114 2585 8140 2589 8148 2584 8150
2587 8152 2591 8161 2589 8163 2592 8165
2590 8169 2588 8166 2584 8168 2598 8174
2609 8182 2616 8182
time... Mot... loc 0103z 227deg 39kt 2570 8206
Be careful mel. Keep an open ear tonight while you sleep.
I'm just never sure whether they are right or not - so many times they say it and then we get a blurb of rain and I've moved plants and rocking chairs and cars out of the driveway...didn't know what the opinion was...anywho - guess it won't hurt to drain the batteries on the radio tonight and irritate everyone in the house when it goes off.

Have a safe night everyone...
Just posted a Tornado Warning for that rotating cell
Someone please look at the Tampa radar and tell me if that's a bow echo setting up about 50 miles offshore. Thanks
looks like just an intense cell. Probably as the front approaches one will form.


The front is hard to find
Gotten lucky thus far in Southeast Florida. Looks like this low will be coming over South Florida. The storms off the SW Coast are very ominous and will produce some tornadoes in my opinion. Southeast Florida will get severe weather later during the night and especially tomorrow. Stay safe all.
Nonetheless, that line is developing. Last tampa radar image is messed up!
If this mess holds together its going to be a loud night across extreme southeast miami dade county.

Yea 23, they're training on the SW and SE FL coast
I notice Ivan is still going strong. It's currently forecast to restrengthen to hurricane force by Thursday.

Wow, I can see a lot of features out in the Gulf that resemble fronts. Does anyone know which one is the front? There's a line over LA, one over the panhandle, and one approaching Tampa. What a mess
850 vort is increasing.

the only way I know is by the map - its a mess out there.
baha...can you resize that image?
Sorry SC, spelling error. Saw it as soon as the page refreshed.
Look at the velocities from <this storm that came in collier county. Its got to be causing wind damage.
Look at the difference in lightening between the Tampa area storms and the south fla storms. Its remarkable.

i dont know why that is happening.

JFLORIDA what an amazing difference. I can't answer that one.
tornado warning for south western palm beach county
well im off to bed - good luck all - the worst areas appear to be south Florida and just off the Louisiana coast (thats really been building on the sat image)
Yea hahaguy, that cell has been trouble back when it was still in the GOM.
the storms are going NE right to me
Where are you hahaguy?
port st lucie .well thats according to my radar
400, 401
maybe this is the difference
CIMSS mid level shear
Two interesting stories Link and this Link
Tornado Warning
Statement as of 10:59 PM EST on February 12, 2008
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1130 PM EST for
northwestern Mainland Monroe County...

At 1059 PM EST... Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. Damaging winds
in excess of 60 mph are also possible. This storm was located near
Wilderness Waterway north... moving northeast at 25 mph.

411. 0741
i wont able to sleep on after other watch or warring i live in model home
412. 0741
i was say one after watch or warring their alot torando report tonight in south fl this south fl outbreak
413. 0741
who here in miami area how you weather been tonight
414. 0741
miami weather service working over time tonight
415. 0741
786 WFUS52 KMFL 130641 TORMFL FLC011-130715- /O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0013.080213T0641Z-080213T0715Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 141 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. * UNTIL 215 AM EST * AT 139 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF A TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. LAT...LON 2633 8070 2631 8035 2604 8071 2615 8086 TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 218DEG 36KT 2618 8071
416. 0741
miami radar is out
Stay safe out there, 0741.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Nicholas Category One [980 hPa] located near 14.4S 120.8E or 425 kms north-northwest of Broome and 700 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported moving east-northeast at 4 knots

Dvorak Intensity: 2.5

Additional Information
------------------------
Nicholas has shown no signs of intensification during the day but in the longer term it is still likely to intensify. Nicholas is currently heading towards the
east northeast, however, it is forecast to take a more southerly movement.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas this afternoon or tonight, however, it is possible gales could develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Pardoo later on Thursday or on Friday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the Pilbara coast west of Pardoo is not under threat in the next 48 hours, there is still a risk in that area over the weekend

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
-----------------------------------
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Pardoo

Forecast and Intensity
----------------------
12 HRS: 14.2S 121.0E - 50 knots [CAT 2]
24 HRS: 15.1S 121.0E - 70 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS: 16.3S 121.0E - 85 knots [CAT 3]
The Weather escapes me...No matter who forecasts what, it can always turn out wrong. Every computer model, every meteorologist, and all weather junkies predicted that last night would be a severe weather outbreak in Florida- it sure wasn't here, and I don't even think s. fl's incident could be considered and outbreak. I ended up with .62 inches and that occurred at 5 pm yesterday...not 1/10 of an inch even fell last night. Who knows? Maybe the actual front will take everyone by surprise...I doubt it
By the Way, theres a Tropical Cyclone out in the Indian Ocean with a name we might all remember....
Ivan.
Looking at Satellite the worse if you call that might be coming to south florida.


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 9:50 pm WDT on Wednesday, 13 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Kuri Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Pardoo to Bidyadanga.

At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
355 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
670 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas has shown no signs of intensification during the day but in the longer
term it is still likely to intensify. Nicholas is likely to move slowly south
over the next 48 hours.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas overnight, however, it is possible gales
could develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga later on Thursday
or Friday and may extend further south and west to Pardoo during Friday. Pilbara
residents are advised that although the Pilbara coast west of Pardoo is not
under threat in the next 48 hours, there is still a risk in that area over the
weekend.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 14.9 degrees South 121.3 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 7 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga,
including Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island, Derby, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point,
Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga should commence taking
precautions.
Communities between Pardoo and Bidyadanga should listen for the next advice.
The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Thursday 14 February.
Never wish for calamity...it just may deliver itself. Here yesterday a 51 yr old woman ignored advice from Hospital workers to stay indoors as a Tornado warning was in effect.She went to go to her car..the funnel came thru..picked her up..and slammed her against a car ..She perished.
Never wish for calamity...it just may deliver itself. Here yesterday a 51 yr old woman ignored advice from Hospital workers to stay indoors as a Tornado warning was in effect.She went to go to her car..the funnel came thru..picked her up..and slammed her against a car ..She perished.
Sad story Patrap, it's amazing the amount of ignorance in some people. Just recently moved out to Wellington, FL (Central Palm Beach). We had a couple warnings last night. Yeah it was 12am, it sucked, but not as bad as getting caught off guard.
Yeah, all the Nurses warned her not to go outside ,..and it was the last thing she did.So true and sad at the sad time. Never tempt Mother Nature ..
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the update!
I recorded exactly one inch of rain yesterday here in Bradenton FL. (near the sky way bridge). It looks like we dodged a bullet with all the predictive models forecasting the potential for nasty weather.
StormW thanks for the update --did not go to work today at the Polo Club - may have been a bad call- expected rain all morning...figured it would be too wet to take the horses out for their fitness run. Now I'm trying to figure out what to do --probably will start pouring once I get there, Just really grateful for whatever rain we get. Read this morning, in a small hidden article, Lake Okeechobee is at it's lowest level EVER recorded.
La Nina is giving us here in the Northeast some rough weather,we started with 3 inches of snow last night over to freezing raing and now heavy rain all day.

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD CT...TOLLAND CT AND
WINDHAM CT. IN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA...EASTERN
ESSEX MA...EASTERN HAMPDEN MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...EASTERN
PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA...SOUTHERN
WORCESTER MA...SUFFOLK MA...WESTERN ESSEX MA...WESTERN HAMPDEN
MA...WESTERN NORFOLK MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA. IN SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH. IN RHODE ISLAND...
BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI...NEWPORT RI...NORTHWEST
PROVIDENCE RI...SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI...WASHINGTON RI AND
WESTERN KENT RI.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY FROM 7 AM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SOME SNOW MELT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. AREAS OF SLUSH COVERED STORM DRAINS AND
UNDERPASSES ARE ALSO A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.

* SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS
NOT LIMITED TO THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI...THE
NEPONSET RIVER AT NORWOOD MA...ASSEBET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA AND
THE SUDBURY RIVER IN SAXONVILLE MA.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH RIVER FLOODING IS OF SOME CONCERN...
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNFICANT
URBAN FLOODING.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
Pat,thats an awful story,you see people all the time disrepecting the power of mother nature,and it usually ends tragically.