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Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

BEC scrambles to restore power

Royston Jones Jr.
Guardian Staff Reporter
royston@nasguard.com

Published: Oct 27, 2012


The majority of New Providence customers without power will have their electricity supplies restored by today, General Manager of the Bahamas Electricity Company (BEC) Kevin Basden said yesterday.

Basden said 50 percent of BEC's customers in New Providence had no electricity yesterday afternoon.

At a press conference at the National Emergency Management Agency's (NEMA) emergency center, Basden told reporters that power outages were a result of lines clashing in high winds and downed poles.

Crews began to replace poles and overhead lines, in an effort to restore power in most of the affected areas, he said.

"We restored the bigger set of areas first to [return power] to as many customers, and our transmission systems are in fact intact; we have that back in, and a number of our primary sub-stations have already been restored," he said.
"The work continues. We anticipate getting most customers back up by this evening (Friday), but it would be premature to give a completion time as further assessments followed by repairs are still necessary."
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 03:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 22

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 1:26Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.7N 86.0W
Location: 104 miles (167 km) between the S and SSW (191°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,930 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 30° at 22 knots (From the NNE at ~ 25.3 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -30°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
D-value: 48 geopotential meters

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

Signing off with my last recco - God Bless all past Hurricane Hunters and Gods Speed to all those who carry on.
It has been a wonderful ride Christa Clynch Hornbaker -
1003. K8eCane
Quoting Maryland1:


That says storm name ISAAC
1004. breald
I know protecting human life is very important during a major weather event, but don't forget about your pets.
Link
979 ncstorm: LOL..the Dare County Emergency official is just busting TWC bubble... he was saying this storm is not on the level of Irene... the more the reporter tried to doom the situation, the more he kept saying the outerbanks will be okay.

He should quit worrying about hurting the tourism business, and worry about the people living there.
A center passage ~40miles offshore of a storm with a 450mile-max.radius TropicalStorm-force windfield ain't gonna be an experience that's gonna make folks wanna recommend OBX to their friends.

All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 27Oct.12pm
Since the previous mapping, 27Oct.6am's StormStatus has been re-evaluated&altered from TropicalStorm to Hurricane
28.1n76.9 has been re-evaluated&altered
28.1n77.0w-28.8n76.8w are now the most recent positions

MYR-MyrtleBeach :: GGE-Georgetown :: MHH-GreatAbaco

The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Sandy's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline
26Oct.06pm: H.Sandy had been headed for passage midway between CapeRomainHarbor and YawkeySouthIslandReserve (bottom,GGEdumbbell)
27Oct.12am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage over MyrtleBeach (right,MYRblob)
27Oct.06am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 40.1miles(64.5kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras (right,straightline-top blob)
27Oct.12pm: H.Sandy had been heading for passage 38.4miles(61.9kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
My husband was just activated by the Red Cross to help setting up evacuation shelters.

I am sure most people here realize this but I just wanted to say to everyone in the path of the storm, know where your local shelters are going to be and if you have pets what their policy is going to be, even if you are not in an evacuation zone. You may have to leave your home unexpectedly and don't want to be wandering around in the storm trying to figure out where to go.
1007. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:


That says storm name ISAAC



We are up to the S named storm
1008. ncstorm
from the HPC short range discussion

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Why is that "safe to surmise that operatives in both parties are already asking themselves how the event of the storm can be used"? That seems a tad cynical... I mean, both sides are likely asking how the storm will impact their campaign schedules, and/or how it might influence the election itself. But that's quite a bit different than actively plotting to "use" the storm to gain a political advantage.

My guess: the side currently in power will do its best not to make any missteps lest those mistakes be pounced upon as the current President's "Katrina" (already a meme in some circles), while the other side will be hoping and praying there are missteps by the current administration that can be leveraged to discredit the President. Neither of those seems particularly underhanded; it's just the way the American political system works.


cynical or not...having once been one of those operatives...I can assure you they are all noodling through how to twist this to their respective advantage...

This non-partisan message is brought to you by The Laws of Nature
NWS Mount Holly ‏@NWS_MountHolly
Here is today's briefing package with the latest information about Hurricane Sandy. #njwx #pawx #mdwx #dewx http://ow.ly/eOALz
1011. guygee
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, the list wasn't intended to be comprehensive; I said I was only listing a few. But which 1978 winter storm do you mean? There were a large number that pollution-cooled year...
Right, I was thinking of the January 26, 1978 blizzard. I was living in NE Ohio, and at the height of the storm I went for a drive with four other friends out on some country roads. We were well-dressed, and every time we got stuck we had enough manpower to push ourselves out. We also found a couple in their car trapped and pushed them out too. Irresponsible? Probably. Such is youth and it was fun.
Quoting Matt1989:

Bro it's a borderline TS/Hurricane choking on dry air... It's not a category 5 we are talking about here.


There will be extended power outages, maybe not in N Carolina, but certainly further north.
Quoting hurricane23:


NRT good morning..

By any chance do you have the link to that free weather station online that was created by a met? Had it bookmarked but somehow erased.

thanks


Mornin 23,

You would have to be more specific on what that station would have as far as content, right now I would have no idea what station and whether or not I have a link.
Sandy is still a hurricane according to the first fix.

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)

The second fix only had 70 mph though...
Quoting SSideBrac:


First I do not know where you live so cannot comment on whether your time would be better spent preparing than complaining.
Your posts sound all too much like those of a "serial complainer" - and probably one who would be front and centre and loudest in the line if you did not receive adequate warning of a possible crisis.
You epitomise the term "complacency" - so if nothing positive to add, then perhaps do not post!
This system has already killed people and caused significant damage - if some hype prevents one further single death - then let them hype away as far as I am concerned.


Actually, THEYGOOFEDAGAIN is closer to the truth that it might first appear.

I believe that THEYGOOFEDAGAIN is trying to caution everybody to keep the hysteria to a minimum and report the news in more restrained tones.

Calling the storm by such hysterical names like Frankenstorm will only fuel the fires of resentment when folks discover that they spent money they didn't have on things they later find that they really didn't need.

The next time they might hear the warnings and say to themselves...Yeah right, just like last time. Forget about it, I aint gonna buy nothin this time....and then experience a direct hit.

Rabid news reporting is not as entertaining as the reporters might think, especially when peoples lives are in the mix, now and in the future. Deny it all they might, they have an obligation to report such news responsibly and in somewhat subdued terms as well.



Highest flight winds I can find...

Time: 11:19:30Z
Coordinates: 27.6167N 77.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.4 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,337 meters (~ 4,386 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 985.7 mb (~ 29.11 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 316° at 90 knots (From the NW at ~ 103.5 mph)
Air Temp: 13.0°C* (~ 55.4°F*)
Dew Pt: 13.0°C* (~ 55.4°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 91 knots (~ 104.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/h
1017. Wiebel
To those who are posting and looking at SLOSH forecasts:

These model runs lack accuracy because there is not that many data to calibrate them on, on this stretch of coast. They do give an estimate though. This accounts for any surge model!

Judging the size of this system, combined with its forward speed and the large continental shelve I wouldnt be surprised if we get a cat 3 similar surge (although you shouldnt use cats in surge).

I would not be surprised if the highest water marks exceed 10ft, if the system unfolds the way predicted.

The GDACS models highest surge elevation is 2.9m (10ft). Average in the "hitzone" is 6ft.
1018. barbamz
Quoting K8eCane:


That says storm name ISAAC


Mission No 16 into Isaac is always showing up on my Google Earth, too. I've deleted it several times, but in vain. Must be some revenant from upcoming Halloween ;-)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Mornin 23,

You would have to be more specific on what that station would have as far as content, right now I would have no idea what station and whether or not I have a link.


Um it was a live AWIPS workstation (Sumu) something it was put together for free to public.
Sandy is bringing rain to coastal North Carolina



Stunning image of Sandy overnight from the "visible" Day-Night Band on the NPP satellite.
1022. Dakster
Quoting barbamz:


Mission No 16 into Isaac is always showing up on my Google Earth, too. I've deleted it several times, but in vain. Must be some revenant from upcoming Halloween ;-)


It is the haunting of Ms. Hornbaker...
Found thanks anyway NRT for responding to message.

www.simuawips.com
1024. NCWatch
Quoting ncstorm:
for anyone interested in monitoring the wind speeds of the Buoys on the East Coast

from Henry Margusity
Those winds shown on the Buoys way away from the center are an indication of the wind field spreading out and the danger that is coming.



Thanks for the site...very interesting
URNT12 KWBC 271437
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 27/14:09:35Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
076 deg 03 min W
C. NA
D. 63 kt
E. 298 deg 17 nm
F. 019 deg 47 kt
G. 299 deg 100 nm
H. 965
I. 8 C / 3678 m
J. 10 C / 3674
K. 8 / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / NA
O. 1 / 2
P. NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 36
MAX FL WIND 68 KT SW QUAD 12:49:37Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C 285 / 32 NM FROM FL CNTR
SONDE SPLASH WINDS 080/17 KTS
SFMR WIND MAX INBOUND IN HEAVY PRECIP
GOES 14 Super Rapid Scan Visible 1 minute images, takes a while to load, at least on my slow *** system.
Posting again..

Iam trying to use the animated feature from CIMSS with sandy but for some odd reason my labtop keeps saving it as a bitman (BMP) image which is not animated. Also trying to save images from the ssd noaa site and it does the same.

Any help is much appreciated.

1028. LargoFl
What People Forget about Land falling Hurricanes......
1029. Dakster
Quoting LargoFl:
What People Forget about Land falling Hurricanes......


What is that? To bring a change of clean underwear?
URNT15 KNHC 271444
AF302 1518A SANDY HDOB 34 20121027
143430 2742N 07439W 8429 01345 9848 +157 +148 238073 074 051 002 00
143500 2741N 07437W 8441 01338 9856 +154 +149 238075 076 048 002 00
143530 2739N 07436W 8432 01349 9861 +151 +147 237076 077 048 002 00
143600 2738N 07434W 8427 01356 9863 +149 +145 240082 084 048 001 00
143630 2736N 07433W 8432 01353 9868 +140 +140 241078 083 045 005 05
143700 2736N 07431W 8428 01362 9872 +147 +143 240075 076 /// /// 03
143730 2737N 07428W 8429 01358 9868 +152 +139 234076 077 048 001 03
143800 2739N 07427W 8414 01372 9867 +148 +140 230077 077 048 002 00
143830 2741N 07426W 8428 01352 9859 +154 +141 225074 077 048 002 00
143900 2744N 07425W 8429 01349 9859 +140 +140 225075 076 047 000 01
143930 2747N 07424W 8430 01347 9856 +149 +145 228074 076 048 002 00
144000 2750N 07424W 8426 01348 9855 +140 +140 226071 073 048 001 01
144030 2752N 07423W 8430 01342 9851 +140 +140 225071 072 052 001 01
144100 2755N 07422W 8430 01337 9848 +150 +150 225071 073 050 003 01
144130 2758N 07422W 8430 01337 9838 +162 +155 224069 070 055 001 00
144200 2800N 07421W 8431 01336 9832 +170 +152 224069 070 051 001 03
144230 2803N 07420W 8429 01333 9827 +174 +153 225067 068 051 002 03
144300 2806N 07419W 8433 01327 9826 +173 +155 225066 067 051 001 03
144330 2808N 07419W 8430 01328 9827 +168 +157 225066 066 050 002 00
144400 2811N 07418W 8429 01331 9824 +171 +156 223063 066 049 002 00

Flight level wind: 84 kt (SE quadrant)
1032. hydrus
78 hours..
Hurricane Sandy's wind field is about 450 miles from the center... that's a large wind field, folks.



Sandy rapid scan.... awesome.......

Link
Quoting Dakster:


What is that? To bring a change of clean underwear?


LOL.
1036. LargoFl
How many pics are we going to see come next week like this
1037. K8eCane
no advisory yet?
Mandatory evacuation ordered for Fire Island (NY) by 2 pm Sunday.
1039. guygee
Quoting clamshell:
...Rabid news reporting is not as entertaining as the reporters might think, especially when peoples lives are in the mix, now and in the future. Deny it all they might, they have an obligation to report such news responsibly and in somewhat subdued terms as well.
The large number of apostles and disciples of the late Milton Friedman would argue that their only moral responsibility is to make as large a profit as possible. That concept has been incorporated into the national religion.

I dissent from them and I agree with you.
she is staring to look like a hurricane again,not good.
I just looked up the "northeast blizzard of 78" which bombed out off the coast of nj. Turns out that the central pressure was only around 988mb. A midwestern blizzard that took a more northerly track across the midwest, about 10 days before, is also known as the "blizzard of 78". The latter storm had the pressure of 953mb. Of course, when growing up, the northeast blizzard was the biggest snowstorm on record, and the part of MA I am in didn't even get snow from the midwest storm.



Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm no expert on European meteorology, so must admit that I don't know whether 955 mb is usual on that side of the pond. But here in the States, such low pressures in non-tropical storms don't occur "frequently". Here's a list of a few memorable nor'easters and their lowest measured pressures:

2011 Halloween nor'easter: 971 mb
December 2010 North American blizzard: 961 mb
1991 Perfect Storm: 972 mb
Groundhog Day gale of 1976: 957 mb
Great Blizzard of 1888: 982 mb

FWIW, the lowest barometric pressure officially recognized in the Lower 48 outside a hurricane or tornado was 955 mb at Canton, NY, in 1913 and Nantucket in 1932. So if Sandy makes landfall as a non-tropical entity (which it should) with a pressure lower than 955 mb (which some models are calling for) it will definitely fit the description of "incredible"--at least the way some define the word. ;-)

(Of course, even if the storm is at 960, its massive size and wide distribution of winds is going to make it one of the most memorable Northeast U.S. storms ever. I think that's the important part to remember.)
Quoting Carnoustie:
she is staring to look like a hurricane again,not good.


A large one...


anybody underestimating this storm could be making a big mistake. Its not about categories, its about total rainfall and size of this storm. Everyone in its path should stay on the safe side.
1045. LargoFl
someone asked about storm surge and Long island.................Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.
The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane.
A category 4 hurricane inundates the entire towns of: Amityville, Lindenhurst, Babylon, West Islip, East Islip, Bayshore, Gilgo Beach, Cedar Beach, Great South Beach, Fair Harbor, Cherry Grove, Cupsogue, Westhampton Beach, Watermill Beach, Wainscott Beach, Plum Island, Gardiner's Island, Orient, Shelter Island (except for a few high points), Greenport, North Haven, Amagansett Beach, Napeague Beach, Montauk, Woodmere, Valley Stream, Linbrook, Long Beach, Atlantic Beach, Freeport, Merrick, Wantagh, Lido Beach, Jones Beach, and Tobay Beach.
Sandy remains at 75mph in the new advisory, pressure 958mb.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 271459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS SANDY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
HOWEVER...A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting hurricane23:
Posting again..

Iam trying to use the animated feature from CIMSS with sandy but for some odd reason my labtop keeps saving it as a bitman (BMP) image which is not animated. Also trying to save images from the ssd noaa site and it does the same.

Any help is much appreciated.



What I know about it:


All animations from CIMSS are saved in this file:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie. gif


You could try loading it to an image site such as photobucket, etc and go from there.

Need to be quick though, if anyone else captures an animation on CIMSS it will overwrite what you animated with their selections.
1049. LargoFl
Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.
The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane.
A category 4 hurricane inundates the entire towns of: Amityville, Lindenhurst, Babylon, West Islip, East Islip, Bayshore, Gilgo Beach, Cedar Beach, Great South Beach, Fair Harbor, Cherry Grove, Cupsogue, Westhampton Beach, Watermill Beach, Wainscott Beach, Plum Island, Gardiner's Island, Orient, Shelter Island (except for a few high points), Greenport, North Haven, Amagansett Beach, Napeague Beach, Montauk, Woodmere, Valley Stream, Linbrook, Long Beach, Atlantic Beach, Freeport, Merrick, Wantagh, Lido Beach, Jones Beach, and Tobay Beach.
1050. wxmod
China pollution out of control. MODIS satellite photo today

Yes just look at the Satellite Sandy appears to be organizing again rather quickly this morning. Wouldn't rule out it being tropical as the Gulf-stream is going to be feeding this system almost to the end. I would say not good news for those up north IMO. not a meteorologist.
1052. hydrus
1053. LargoFl
One positive note
Sandy is bringing beautiful weather to Southwest Florida. It's a perfect day (sunny, humidity is down, and temps in the 70s - 80s and a nice northerly breeze)
1055. hydrus
Quoting wxmod:
China pollution out of control. MODIS satellite photo today


Yes, we know China has a pollution problem. They have done so for to many years to count. Even at the 2008 Bei-jing Olympics the removal of 1mil cars didn't help much.
Looks like Alien. Where's Ripley when you need her?


1058. wxmod
"Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010)."

This quote from the blog above is based on modeling that doesn't take pollution or geoengineering into account. Therefore the model is flat out wrong.
1059. guygee
Quoting leftlink:
I just looked up the "northeast blizzard of 78" which bombed out off the coast of nj. Turns out that the central pressure was only around 988mb. A midwestern blizzard that took a more northerly track across the midwest, about 10 days before, is also known as the "blizzard of 78". The latter storm had the pressure of 953mb. Of course, when growing up, the northeast blizzard was the biggest snowstorm on record, and the part of MA I am in didn't even get snow from the midwest storm.
Correct, see my post 1011.

Not in reference to your post, but in general I really hate the ignore list feature on this site, it gives me the feeling that we are all talking past each other and no one is really listening. This is the only virtual society to my knowledge that has such a "feature". Active moderation would be much better, and people would probably volunteer for free. Then all we would need is some meta-moderation.
Ok, with regards to the satellite photo, we see the Hurricane, the large polar/arctic cold front (which I believe is part of the reason this is forecast-ed to form a powerful hybrid/extra-tropical storm), and I presume the clear slot north of Sandy over Nova Scotia/NB is the Canadian High Pressure system blocking Sandy from going out to sea.

Is there any other component on this map that is helping to make Sandy a potentially historic storm?
Quoting LargoFl:
this is the first day Sandy's cloud shield has coved the Tampa Bay Area. I'm thankful for that too... It's only 72 with a brisk northerly breeze and DP of 63. Perfect!
1062. LargoFl
Quoting stribe37:
Ok, with regards to the satellite photo, we see the Hurricane, the large polar/arctic cold front (which I believe is part of the reason this is forecast-ed to form a powerful hybrid/extra-tropical storm, and I presume the clear slot north of Sandy over Nova Scotia/NB is the Canadian High Pressure system blocking Sandy from going out to sea.

Is there any other component on this map that is helping to make Sandy a potentially historic storm?
dont forget for most of her trip north she is riding along the gulf stream with its heat content
1063. LargoFl
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
this is the first day Sandy's cloud shield has coved the Tampa Bay Area. I'm thankful for that too... It's only 72 with a brisk northerly breeze and DP of 63. Perfect!
yeah its really nice out with the temp and breezes
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


What I know about it:


All animations from CIMSS are saved in this file:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie. gif


You could try loading it to an image site such as photobucket, etc and go from there.

Need to be quick though, if anyone else captures an animation on CIMSS it will overwrite what you animated with their selections.


My pc is saving as a BMP automatically thats the issue :0(
holy we cows


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.
Quoting stribe37:
Ok, with regards to the satellite photo, we see the Hurricane, the large polar/arctic cold front (which I believe is part of the reason this is forecast-ed to form a powerful hybrid/extra-tropical storm), and I presume the clear slot north of Sandy over Nova Scotia/NB is the Canadian High Pressure system blocking Sandy from going out to sea.

Is there any other component on this map that is helping to make Sandy a potentially historic storm?


The jet stream will be overhead.
1067. Grothar
1068. guygee
Quoting wxmod:
China pollution out of control. MODIS satellite photo today
Good post. With the recent (temporary) exponential growth in China's economy I would expect that their air and water pollution problems are growing exponentially as well. With their size, their problems are everyone's problems, same as with us:U.S.-us.
1069. LargoFl
GFS at 63 hours, remember tropical storm force winds go out 450 miles from this
From NOAA P-3 #NOAA42 : Banding as seen from the on-board radar display in Hurricane #Sandy: 25 Oct 2012 pic.twitter.com/6tkfxClY

Looks like it will be more of a New jersey hit.Maybe some wind for me but not a lot.Heard it could be similar to Irene for my area and Irene wasn't that bad so I heard.
Breaking News Storm ‏@breakingstorm
Connecticut governor signs Declaration of Emergency ahead of Hurricane Sandy - @NBCConnecticut http://bit.ly/SKgR4J
1073. Grothar
Got to work on photobucket account i used url option directly from website.
NHC storm surge estimates of 4-8 ft. above ground level if peak surge occurs at high tide from Ocean City, Md. to the CT/RI border

This 4-8 ft. storm surge estimate include Long Island Sound, Raritan Bay and Delaware Bay.
1076. divdog
Quoting Bluestorm5:


A large one...

very nice image. Whats next from sandy. Do u know are there 3 big players or just 2 with this storm. I understand the hurricane and a cold front which is involved and is there something else that could make this a storm to remember..don't know much just asking.
Thanks
The folks on this board who continually compare this to a category 1 hurricane need to be advised that this storm may eventually have a barometric reading 30 millibars lower than the Perfect Storm of '92. The wave action produced will cause severe coastal flooding and power outages may last for weeks. Wave heights in the Atlantic may approach 50-60 feet. This will be a catastrophic STORM! Don't focus on labels, but on the coming unprecedented danger facing our fellow Americans in the Northeast.
Quoting divdog:
very nice image. Whats next from sandy. Do u know are there 3 big players or just 2 with this storm. I understand the hurricane and a cold front which is involved and is there something else that could make this a storm to remember..don't know much just asking.
Thanks

There is a blocking high in the NATL.
Quoting wxmod:
"Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010)."

This quote from the blog above is based on modeling that doesn't take pollution or geoengineering into account. Therefore the model is flat out wrong.


Leaving aside the 'geoengineering' bit, which I assume is more of this secret government weather manipulation idiocy, how will pollution affect warming?
1080. LargoFl
Quoting Wunderwood:
The folks on this board who continually compare this to a category 1 hurricane need to be advised that this storm may eventually have a barometric reading 30 millibars lower than the Perfect Storm of '92. The wave action produced will cause severe coastal flooding and power outages may last for weeks. Wave heights in the Atlantic may approach 50-60 feet. This will be a catastrophic STORM! Don't focus on labels, but on the coming unprecedented danger facing our fellow Americans in the Northeast.
yes i wish they would dump that Cat-1 designation..its going to lull people into thinking its not that bad
1081. Wiebel
Quoting Wunderwood:
Wave heights in the Atlantic may approach 50-60 feet. This will be a catastrophic STORM! Don't focus on labels, but on the coming unprecedented danger facing our fellow Americans in the Northeast.


Wave height near the coast is limited by local depth. Wave height does not exceed 0.6 to 0.7 times local depth.

Atlantic wave height doesnt tell us much about near shore waves.
1082. LargoFl
The message up and down the Eastern seaboard couldn't be clearer: Be prepared for days without electricity, as a storm that could be one for the history books.
Quoting Tazmanian:
holy we cows


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.


Yikes!!!!!!!!80 mph winds
State of Emergency has been declared for New Jersey.
My husband works for entergy and is a lineman for the co. They will be leaving soon to help put the lights back on as soon as the storm passes.. I wish all the men and women who leave their families to go help others a safe trip. And please be careful !!!! To all of you in the path of the storm please leave if you can. If you cannot leave have your supplies ready, it will take time to get to you .
Quoting Grothar:

Wow, I am in the alert section.
1088. LargoFl
“This storm will affect millions and cost billions,” AccuWeather forecaster Marshall Moss told the Daily News.

“This is really going to be a huge storm and something unprecedented in meteorological terms,” he predicted.

Emergency preparations were already under way in the city, with the MTA considering a total shut down of buses and subways if worst predictions hold when the storm blows into the region late Sunday. City officials were mulling the evacuation of as many as 375,000 New Yorkers.

Experts say the storm shows no sign of slowing its current northward track up the Atlantic, and its impact will rattle states along the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to Maine.

The brunt of the bad weather is expected to hit the city late Monday and early Tuesday.

“The storm is so large the impact is going to be felt over hundreds of miles and many states at the same time,” Dennis Feltgen, an expert with the National Hurricane Center, told the Daily News.

“At this point, whether it’s a hurricane or a tropical storm when it makes landfall really doesn’t matter,” he said.


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/sandy-tro pical-storm-threatens-east-coast-article-1.1193631 #ixzz2AVshIghQ
1089. guygee
Quoting yonzabam:


Leaving aside the 'geoengineering' bit, which I assume is more of this secret government weather manipulation idiocy, how will pollution affect warming?
Depends on what kind of pollution. Carbon soot particulates contribute to warming. Sulfer emissions contribute to cooling. I think the scientific consensus is that before the majority of industrialized societies passed clean air laws the net effect of pollution was cooling (not counting CO2 as a pollutant..consistent with most laws but not reality).
I think it might be possible for Sandy to make a run for cat 2 again..
Quoting Wiebel:


Wave height near the coast is limited by local depth. Wave height does not exceed 0.6 to 0.7 times local depth.

Atlantic wave height doesnt tell us much about near shore waves.


You are correct, however, the wave heights in the ocean mean that water will remain contained in flooded areas for a longer period of time. Wave heights are the catalyst for the destructive flooding that may occur.
For comparison, Folks, Irene's maximum wind field radius at the time before her second landfall was 320 miles from the center, and this thing is 450 miles!!...and expected to get larger. WHAT???!!!
North Jersey here and not happy about it. Up a hill and inland, and far enough away from any major bodies of water that I'm hoping I won't have any direct impacts from waterways, but with all the uncertainties and the trees still covered in leaves (and with my power company, JCP&L, which is famed for its relentless incompetence,) I can't say I'm feeling very good.

We have plenty of bottled water and canned/shelf stable food, loads of batteries, flashlights, first aid supplies, an extra battery pack for my cell phone, a little transistor radio--it's really the best that I can do. I hope everyone else in my area is similarly prepared. I'm frankly dreading this. Stay safe out there, everyone!
How much would 6ft of surge do to NY?

That is less than irene brought right?
Seawalls can handle that I suppose.

What is the deal with new Jersey coastal cities, are those well protected?

Also Sandy may hook a hard left from going north to west just before landfall, so if the surge is moving north, the winds might not be driving it in as strongly as they would, it might just be rolling in on its own.
Quoting Wunderwood:


You are correct, however, the wave heights in the ocean mean that water will remain contained in flooded areas for a longer period of time. Wave heights are the catalyst for the destructive flooding that may occur.




Here's some trivia...
If this turn out to be, and I hope we are all wishing and praying for it not to be, a catastrophic event that unfolds next week with longterm effects in New England.

What are the odds the government will call a state of emergency and postpone federal elections?

Has this ever happened?

It is not out of the picture to assume that a catastrophe less than a week before elections could leave dozens of communities inaccessible and uncommunicated. What would be done to guarantee these people have a chance to use their right to vote?
1098. K8eCane
Sounds like its starting to pick up a bit outside here in Wilmywood ( Wilmington) NC

Building a new center.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Wow, I am in the alert section.

Wow, I'm in the action section
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like it will be more of a New jersey hit.Maybe some wind for me but not a lot.Heard it could be similar to Irene for my area and Irene wasn't that bad so I heard.

Irene was fairly bad for me... id like to avoid a repeat... and i really dont want to loose power
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
How much would 6ft of surge do to NY?

That is less than irene brought right?
Seawalls can handle that I suppose.

What is the deal with new Jersey coastal cities, are those well protected?

Also Sandy may hook a hard left from going north to west just before landfall, so if the surge is moving north, the winds might not be driving it in as strongly as they would, it might just be rolling in on its own.

It's all about the trajectory (angle) of the storm as Sandy will be moving in. Irene paralled the coast moving northward, putting NYC on the so-called cleaner side of the system. This thing is coming in from the SE (135 degrees), and projected to make landfall on the NJ shoreline or in Deleware. Oh boy.
Quoting benirica:
Here's some trivia...
If this turn out to be, and I hope we are all wishing and praying for it not to be, a catastrophic event that unfolds next week with longterm effects in New England.

What are the odds the government will call a state of emergency and postpone federal elections?

Has this ever happened?

It is not out of the picture to assume that a catastrophe less than a week before elections could leave dozens of communities inaccessible and uncommunicated. What would be done to guarantee these people have a chance to use their right to vote?
we were discussing this some last night. Each precinct has the right to delay voting for up to 14 days, but if any precinct delays it's voting, the results from those areas may be deemed questionable and could be thrown out. This is going to cause a political mess.
Quoting Tazmanian:
holy we cows


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.
Is this for real??
Quoting Doppler22:

Wow, I'm in the action section

Hey, you are much closer to Sandy than I will be so for me to be under a category shows how big Sandy will be. Here is the CPC 3-7day hazards outlook.
1106. BDAwx
Remember that although tropical storm force winds extend up to 450miles away from the center, not everywhere between the storm and 450miles will have tropical storm force winds. These winds will probably be in bands far removed from the center.
NOAA ‏@NOAA
Are you a new #NOAA Weather Radio owner? Find the SAME codes you need to program your radio here
Link
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is this for real??




are you guys nuts are some in or did not of coffe yet this AM



yes that real why would i be posting some in if it wass not real
1109. Wiebel
Quoting Wunderwood:


You are correct, however, the wave heights in the ocean mean that water will remain contained in flooded areas for a longer period of time. Wave heights are the catalyst for the destructive flooding that may occur.


Waves need surge to "ride on". And a surge increases the water depth allowing larger waves. Short period wind waves (including swell) are not really related to surge, although the wind that generates both surge and waves is!

Did you know that there are no waves in the center of a CAT 5 hurricane?
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey, you are much closer to Sandy than I will be so for me to be under a category shows how big Sandy will be. Here is the CPC 3-7day hazards outlook.

I didnt think u'd be heavily affected tho... Im suprised that ur in the alert section
1111. LargoFl
folks Think of it like this..just HOW big will this storm be?..tropical storm force winds will be 450 miles from its center...ok..thats not too much huh......look at it THIS way...how many miles is THIS?..I-95...........Virginia- 178 miles
Maryland- 110 miles
Delaware- 26 miles
Pennsylvania- 58 miles
New Jersey- 44 miles (see note)
New York- 29 miles
Connecticut- 118 miles
Rhode Island- 47 miles
Massachusetts- 97 miles
New Hampshire- 17 miles
From virginia to new Hamphshire..all at once
The piece that Neapolitan posted earlier this morning was very good, and basically had a good explanation of why a direct hit on NYC would favor the city MUCH BETTER. If this storm truly is what the NHC projects it to be and comes ashore anywhere from 50-200 south of NYC, I can not even image the devastation in dollars of inland coastal flooding and storm surge this will create. And not only for NYC and Long Island, but also the NJ shore.

Thanks FLWeatherFreak.
Going to be interesting to watch.
Let's hope they do the right thing with that.
in Baltimore here.
People are finally taking this seriously now.
Trying to put away anything that can be thrown in the air.
Sandbags have been given out for the last 18 hours or so for Fels Point and Annapolis residents.
Fingers crossed.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Each run puts the center closer to my house. Hmm. About time to finish the remainder of the outside preps and then the last, but best of all, the beer and wine run.
Quoting BaltOCane:
in Baltimore here.
People are finally taking this seriously now.
Trying to put away anything that can be thrown in the air.
Sandbags have been given out for the last 18 hours or so for Fels Point and Annapolis residents.
Fingers crossed.

Wishing the best for you. Glad to hear Folks are taking action.
Quoting BDAwx:
Remember that although tropical storm force winds extend up to 450miles away from the center, not everywhere between the storm and 450miles will have tropical storm force winds. These winds will probably be in bands far removed from the center.

No. Buoys are showing they literally extend over 400 miles out from the center of Sandy.
A truly mammoth hurricane.
On a related topic, northern Vietnam is about to get pounded and drenched by Son-tinh, as well as the Chinese provinces of Hainan and Guanxi.
1120. LargoFl
Quoting BaltOCane:
in Baltimore here.
People are finally taking this seriously now.
Trying to put away anything that can be thrown in the air.
Sandbags have been given out for the last 18 hours or so for Fels Point and Annapolis residents.
Fingers crossed.
Im seeing reports of the stores running out of batteries and bottled water already
NJ Gov. Chris Christie also reportedly calling 4 MANDATORY evacs of barrier islands from Sandy Hook-Cape May. Includes Atlantic City casinos
1122. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Buoys are showing they literally extend over 400 miles out from the center of Sandy.
not yet anyway..it still has to grow
1123. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:
NJ Gov. Chris Christie also reportedly calling 4 MANDATORY evacs of barrier islands from Sandy Hook-Cape May. Includes Atlantic City casinos
thanks aussie..a good move on his part..waiting to see what NY does now
The more of a perpendicular of an angle massive amounts of sea water is pushed from a storm moving toward the coast, the greater likelyhood of the most destruction surge. Couple that with the unusual high tides this month and the exceptionally shallow continental shelf especially along the Chesapeake Bay area and I'm telling you I have a very bad feeling about this.

I never envisoned a storm this size to move toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast in this manner...and can't recall a time where it ever has. Not coming in from the SE or even ESE (like the GFS still suggests).
Going through town and im seeing people taking their flags/flag poles down and putting their halloween decorations down.... Good idea people
1126. pcola57
Don't know if this has been posted yet this AM..
Sorry about the double post if it has.. :)

Quoting LargoFl:
Im seeing reports of the stores running out of batteries and bottled water already


It wouldn't surprise me.
Quoting Grothar:


The predicted "left hook" after 48h is interesting. This doesn't happen too often and when it does, its always a consequence of rapid deepening. When baroclinic storms rapidly deepen, they alter track to head for the lowest heights, which of course are to the left in the longwave upper trough (in the northern hemisphere). Rapid deepening is usually forced not only by jet-level divergence, but also by strong convection. All the forcing elements for rapid deepening are there; the jet, the SST's along Sandy's track, and the increasing baroclinicty of the environment after 48h.

When I was working the marine forecast desk in Environment Canada's office in Nova Scotia, I watched with fascination one night (this was in the early 90's) as an upper trof embedded in the long wave trof to the west, came off the US coast near Norfolk, Va. There was only high-level cloud with this particular shortwave. Within 6 hours, convection blossomed in the divergent area to the NW of the upper trof, (right over the gulf stream), pressures fell rapidly in the area, and a few hours after that the surface cyclone that had rapidly developed did a 180 , bringing 50 kt winds to Norfolk, with basically zero warning. There's the left hook at work. Now, it could be that all the models are suffering from runaway convective feedback, and the deepening and abrupt track change are overdone. But all the elements are there...its going to be a show.
Quoting Doppler22:

Irene was fairly bad for me... id like to avoid a repeat... and i really dont want to loose power
Irene was kind enough to leave my power and only a few twigs and branches were snapped leaves were everywhere.Some places were without power but only 3 to the maximum in my neighborhood and since the temps were nice their weren't any complaints.

People here know its coming they just feel as though they are wasting money again.

The Mayors of Harrisburg and Philadelphia have both ordered resident sof low lying areas along the rivers to evacuate their houses and stay with relatives due to the fact of heavy flooding possible.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
The more of a perpendicular of an angle massive amounts of sea water is pushed from a storm moving toward the coast, the greater likelyhood of the most destruction surge. Couple that with the unusual high tides this month and the exceptionally shallow continental shelf especially along the Chesapeake Bay area and I'm telling you I have a very bad feeling about this.


Tomball:

If this follows the models, this is going to put so much water into Annapolis, Baltimore, and our other water communities it will cut off and probably kill some people in those areas. I have no problem with any of the hype on this storm. Just growing dread, as I watch the hours tick.
A Washington Post article on Sandy's potential effect on the election...
Tides in Northeast Florida beginning to approach 3 feet above normal:


Quoting CybrTeddy:
A truly mammoth hurricane.

Could give Igor a run for his money. Sandy is ridiculously big.
Quoting BaltOCane:


It wouldn't surprise me.

I went to the store yesterday and i culdnt find batteries or water... I even went into Northern Maryland looking for things and i culdnt find them
Quoting Tazmanian:




are you guys nuts are some in or did not of coffe yet this AM



yes that real why would i be posting some in if it wass not real
I am not nuts and I do not drink coffe. It's just the thought of how big this Sandy will become. People do not think of this as just a cat 1 hurricane winds may be cat 1 but affect will be felt by millons of people. Just pray everyone is safe.Be ready to be with out power for days!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Irene was kind enough to leave my power and only a few twigs and branches were snapped leaves were everywhere.Some places were without power but only 3 to the maximum in my neighborhood and since the temps were nice their weren't any complaints.

People here know its coming they just feel as though they are wasting money again.


I lost power for 2 days and a tree almost fell on my house
1138. LargoFl
Quoting Doppler22:
Going through town and im seeing people taking their flags/flag poles down and putting their halloween decorations down.... Good idea people
yeah dont forget mail boxes..in a tropical storm here it blew down many, watched them travel down the street lol..funny but not funny
Quoting Maryland1:


Tomball:

If this follows the models, this is going to put so much water into Annapolis, Baltimore, and our other water communities it will cut off and probably kill some people in those areas. I have no problem with any of the hype on this storm. Just growing dread, as I watch the hours tick.

And having SST's approximately 9 degrees above climatological average doesn't make us sleep any easier either. :/

Stay safe!
The center almost looks like it's moving ENE.
Bryan Norcross' blog on this site (under Blogs) has a good explanation for newbies on why this storm is unusual and hard to predict. Dr. Masters is not the only expert who posts here. ;-)
1143. guygee
Quoting BDAwx:
Remember that although tropical storm force winds extend up to 450miles away from the center, not everywhere between the storm and 450miles will have tropical storm force winds. These winds will probably be in bands far removed from the center.
You are correct, those winds are not spatially continuous but rather occurring intermittently in squalls at a distance from the storm. It is a smaller area that is getting temporal continuous high winds. For one, I know this is true because I am well inside of that circle right now.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
I am not nuts and I do not drink coffe. It's just the thought of how big this Sandy will become. People do not think of this as just a cat 1 hurricane winds may be cat 1 but affect will be felt by millons of people. Just pray everyone is safe.Be ready to be with out power for days!!

I read a tweet last night, about 66million people will be effected by Sandy. DAAAMN!!!!!
Jeff Masters, meteorology director at Weather Underground, estimated there could be more than $1bn (621m) in damages from Hurricane Sandy.


This is from an article on BBC's website ^^^
1146. LargoFl
Quoting Doppler22:

I went to the store yesterday and i culdnt find batteries or water... I even went into Northern Maryland looking for things and i culdnt find them
yep remember thurs folks here were saying prepare early..now imagine the people who are waiting to see where the storm goes before preparing..and my guess is theres millions of them right now, going on as if nothings wrong
12Z GFS running...looks identical to the last previous runs (00Z & 06Z) so far up to 48 hours out.

Not sure why it initiated the storm at 972 MB so I'm wondering how this will ultimately affect the intensity forecast down the road.

1148. wxmod
Quoting yonzabam:


Leaving aside the 'geoengineering' bit, which I assume is more of this secret government weather manipulation idiocy, how will pollution affect warming?


There are published studies that indicate geoengineering will reduce global precipitation because it will make the stratosphere more opaque, thereby reducing the difference between temperatures on the ground and upper level temperatures thereby reducing lifting air and cumulus cloud formation. You need to add "geoengineering" to your google news search. Weather modification is no conspiracy. It's standard practice.

As for pollution affecting the validity of models, black carbon soot is the main cause of ice melt in the arctic. If a model doesn't take huge and increasing global pollution into account, it is not really a useful model, is it. If you don't believe anything I say here, you need to look at MODIS satellite photos every day.

You can search the AP news for tons of info on geoengineering, weather modification, global pollution and their effects on climate. You have a computer. Just use it.

1149. K8eCane
Quoting CapeFearCane96:
The center almost looks like it's moving ENE.


it is according to nhc
Quoting LargoFl:
yep remember thurs folks here were saying prepare early..now imagine the people who are waiting to see where the storm goes before preparing..and my guess is theres millions of them right now, going on as if nothings wrong

Im all nice and prepared i just wanted to see if there were any left
Quoting Doppler22:

I lost power for 2 days and a tree almost fell on my house
Did your family invest in getting rid of the tree?.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A truly mammoth hurricane.


Looks like it organized overnight.. Shear decreased to 20-30 knots, which will not destroy Sandy.
1153. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:
folks Think of it like this..just HOW big will this storm be?..tropical storm force winds will be 450 miles from its center...ok..thats not too much huh......look at it THIS way...how many miles is THIS?..I-95...........Virginia- 178 miles
Maryland- 110 miles
Delaware- 26 miles
Pennsylvania- 58 miles
New Jersey- 44 miles (see note)
New York- 29 miles
Connecticut- 118 miles
Rhode Island- 47 miles
Massachusetts- 97 miles
New Hampshire- 17 miles
From virginia to new Hamphshire..all at once


okay..so you saying if I mapquest my location to ocean pines, delaware and lets say it makes landfall around that area hypothetically..I would still be receiving tropical force winds if the bottom half of Sandy fills in??..417 miles is the distance...
Quoting LargoFl:
yep remember thurs folks here were saying prepare early..now imagine the people who are waiting to see where the storm goes before preparing..and my guess is theres millions of them right now, going on as if nothings wrong


There are. They live across the street. I waved at them earlier this morning as I was fixing the gutter on the side of the house.
they were just doing yard work.
1155. BDAwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Buoys are showing they literally extend over 400 miles out from the center of Sandy.

Buoys can't show continuity over the 450mile because they are so far apart. And I'm not saying that there aren't regions where this is true - if you look to the north of the center, there are nearly continuous tropical storm force winds to the North Carolina coast - 400-450miles away. However, to the northeast (where the NHC says the wind radius is 450miles), this OSCAT image although it may be easier to see here) shows that there is a slot where winds decrease below tropical storm force and increase again back up to tropical storm force in a band well removed from the center.

Bob Ryan ‏@BobRyanABC7
DC 50% chance having winds to 40 mph from #Sandy late Monday-Tuesday Likely N-NW winds Check trees branches north side house @abc7news
1157. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:


it is according to nhc



that would be really really really good for us in cape fear region
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did your family invest in getting rid of the tree?.

Yup.... its not here anymore... and the other HUGE tree we cut down to size
Quoting TomballTXPride:

And having SST's approximately 9 degrees of climatological average doesn't make us sleep any easier either. :/

Stay safe!


Yep, been posting that Cape May temp for two days. It fascinates me that it is so much higher for this time of the year. Both from a water vapor and as a nice adjunct to the barocline energy.

Grothar said it best. "All the forcing elements are there..."
1160. tramp96
Quoting cardinalcyn:
My husband works for entergy and is a lineman for the co. They will be leaving soon to help put the lights back on as soon as the storm passes.. I wish all the men and women who leave their families to go help others a safe trip. And please be careful !!!! To all of you in the path of the storm please leave if you can. If you cannot leave have your supplies ready, it will take time to get to you .Thanks for the kind word for the lineman. There are a ton
of us heading that way.
Quoting reedzone:


Looks like it organized overnight.. Shear decreased to 20-30 knots, which will not destroy Sandy.


12Z SHIPS calling for shear to slowly come down throughout the forecast period.


TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72

SHEAR (KT) 36 42 39 32 31 27 16 26 32

Link

Dry air though will continue to be a major player.

700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 53 53 48 45 53 67

1162. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Irene was kind enough to leave my power and only a few twigs and branches were snapped leaves were everywhere.Some places were without power but only 3 to the maximum in my neighborhood and since the temps were nice their weren't any complaints.

People here know its coming they just feel as though they are wasting money again.



Hey Wash..looks like the party is still on as planned?
1163. LargoFl
Quoting BaltOCane:


There are. They live across the street. I waved at them earlier this morning as I was fixing the gutter on the side of the house.
they were just doing yard work.
yep those are the folks who will be crying afterwards..why didnt they warn us it was going to be this bad...
No big changes on the 12z GFS, maybe a tad south of the last couple runs but hard to know for sure because you can't really see anything under the storm:

1165. atris
"Hurricane " Sandy with the front about to make contact with her outer bands....
But has the potential to be an extreme weather event
Navy 2km image

I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:

Quoting LargoFl:
yep those are the folks who will be crying afterwards..why didnt they warn us it was going to be this bad...


They get the same newspaper as I do, so I don't know.

1169. 7544
yeap shes huge and still effecting se fl with strong winds they keep extending the wind adv up to 40 mph for the last 24 hours not any rain tho but will not be the same as she heads up to the north stay safe everyone !
Quoting BaltOCane:


They get the same newspaper as I do, so I don't know.



whats a newspaper?.... ;-)
1171. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:


okay..so you saying if I mapquest my location to ocean pines, delaware and lets say it makes landfall around that area hypothetically..I would still be receiving tropical force winds if the bottom half of Sandy fills in??..417 miles is the distance...
if the storm developes as they think it is going to..thats a possibility, NHC is now saying at landfall..just the hurricane force winds will be 100 miles out from the center..after THAT..you have the tropical storm force winds...either way..this storm is so unusual in its make-up at the end..no one has ever seen a storm like this and at this point..even the NHC is guessing to a point..we all will know..afterwards..maybe for the next one in years to come
Holy...
Quoting 954FtLCane:


whats a newspaper?.... ;-)


touche
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:


I would have to agree with you. But overall not too significant since either way she'll still likely get an extra punch of muscle once she interacts with the Baroclinic energy down the road.
Quoting BaltOCane:


It wouldn't surprise me.

Local stores here are already out of stock on a lot of stock, luckily we got supplies early.
The early bird gets the worm.
We hope every year for a big storm in the caribbean...and we don't have it!
You are so lucky in the US...Have some fun for us !
1178. LargoFl
aww its not going to be too bad..................
I think the big problem with this one, asides from millions without power obviously, will be water moving in. Such a large slow moving storm, even though a cat 1, can wreak all sorts of havoc as witnessed with Isaac.
Hopefully everyone will heed the warnings and do what they have to do so no loss of life happens!
1180. redux
i was confident i wasn't going to lose power. now im not so sure.

i don't think my relatives will keep power.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:


honestly it has gotten better.
Quoting Doppler22:
Jeff Masters, meteorology director at Weather Underground, estimated there could be more than $1bn (�621m) in damages from Hurricane Sandy.


This is from an article on BBC's website ^^^


Well, since Irene caused $15 billion worth of damage in the US, I think he's probably erring on the cautious side.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:



I disagree.. She looked worse yesterday in my opinion.. Shear has also dropped to 20-30 knots... Dry air seems to be the only thing currently weakening her. The baroclinic process of strengthening to begin in 24 hours. I believe Sandy will remain a Hurricane by 2 p.m.

Quoting Articuno:

Local stores here are already out of stock on a lot of stock, luckily we got supplies early.
The early bird gets the worm.


Based on my almost 30 years of living in this region and all the storms I've gone through, it's pretty typical for the people here (including myself) to jump on a storm early and buy supplies a bit farther in advance.
it happens every snow storm, and I mean EVERY snow storm (from 2" to 2') and it's been happening with this and Irene last year.
I don't know if it's resorcefulness or panic.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:



I disagree, if anything the convective structure has taken on a more tropical look than this morning.
Quoting Progster:


The predicted "left hook" after 48h is interesting. This doesn't happen too often and when it does, its always a consequence of rapid deepening. When baroclinic storms rapidly deepen, they alter track to head for the lowest heights, which of course are to the left in the longwave upper trough (in the northern hemisphere). Rapid deepening is usually forced not only by jet-level divergence, but also by strong convection. All the forcing elements for rapid deepening are there; the jet, the SST's along Sandy's track, and the increasing baroclinicty of the environment after 48h.

When I was working the marine forecast desk in Environment Canada's office in Nova Scotia, I watched with fascination one night (this was in the early 90's) as an upper trof embedded in the long wave trof to the west, came off the US coast near Norfolk, Va. There was only high-level cloud with this particular shortwave. Within 6 hours, convection blossomed in the divergent area to the NW of the upper trof, (right over the gulf stream), pressures fell rapidly in the area, and a few hours after that the surface cyclone that had rapidly developed did a 180 , bringing 50 kt winds to Norfolk, with basically zero warning. There's the left hook at work. Now, it could be that all the models are suffering from runaway convective feedback, and the deepening and abrupt track change are overdone. But all the elements are there...its going to be a show.

11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 27

Location: 29.0°N 76.0°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Quoting BaltOCane:


Based on my almost 30 years of living in this region and all the storms I've gone through, it's pretty typical for the people here (including myself) to jump on a storm early and buy supplies a bit farther in advance.
it happens every snow storm, and I mean EVERY snow storm (from 2" to 2') and it's been happening with this and Irene last year.
I don't know if it's resorcefulness or panic.

It's both. You in the baltimore area? I am in pasadena.
Quoting Articuno:

It's both. You in the baltimore area? I am in pasadena.


Yep, Northeast Baltimore City here.
I honestly don't think the NHC will downgrade her back to a TS again, even if conditions aren't technically fully supporting a hurricane. My reasoning is TS Sandy sounds less formidable to the public and also she's expected to strengthen again due to an extra shot of baroclinic energy within the next 24 hours. Just a thought though.
Thanks post 1150 it is important that everone  needs to get prepare for the storm.im from pensacola and ivan was not no joke. Im live in alabama now thank god. But anyone that r n d storms path please take it seriously, allthough i would love be in the moutains by now.
That front is pushing Sandy ENE already
WOCN11 CWTO 271531
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada
At 11:31 AM EDT Saturday 27 October 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Wet, windy and wild weather likely beginning late Monday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==

The remnants of hurricane Sandy will probably arrive late Monday as a
large and powerful post tropical fall storm over Southern Ontario.
It will likely track from the Atlantic ocean across the mid Atlantic
states then take an unusual path towards the Lower Great Lakes.

If the storm curves towards the Eastern Seaboard, which a consensus
of numerous computer weather models suggests, there is little doubt
the Northeastern United States will take the brunt of the storm.
But there is also the potential for significant impacts in Southern
and Eastern Ontario too. Significant rainfall appears likely late
Monday into Tuesday. Strong and gusty winds will also accompany this
storm if it takes this path. The storm will likely weaken later
Tuesday and on Halloween, but it will remain cool, damp and may
Still be somewhat windy for the trick or treaters.

A narrow band of wet snow is possible over the Haliburton Highlands
and the higher ground southwest of Georgian Bay. It may be the first
measurable snowfall of the season if temperatures flirt with the
freezing mark, but it doesn'T appear to be significant at this time.

A complicating factor is the presence of a stalled front now over
Southern Ontario. Post-tropical storms interacting with fronts can
produce significant rainfall. Persistent rain is forecast near this
front for the two or three days leading up to the arrival of Sandy.
It may amount to 20 to 30 mm or more over this period, especially
across Niagara, southcentral Ontario and north to Georgian Bay.
An additional 30 to 50 mm is possible with Sandy with excessive
amounts of 50 to 100 mm not out of the question. The forecast track
would also produce widespread 50 to 70 km/h strong winds likely
across Southern Ontario beginning later Monday. Occasional severe
gusts to 100 km/h are also likely, as well as storm force winds on
the Great Lakes. The combination of sodden ground, strong winds and
some residual leaves on trees will likely lead to areas of power
outages due to fallen limbs and some downed trees on snapped wires.

It is important to put this storm in perspective. The main reason it
is getting considerable press is the forecast intensity by various
weather models, as well as the heavily-populated Northeastern United
States that would feel its greatest impact. Most weather models are
forecasting the storm achieving an unprecedented low central pressure
as it comes ashore late Monday. Generally speaking, the lower the
pressure: the more intense the winds and rain around the storm.
It's possible the models are overdoing the storm strength. But even
if that is true, it may still be a significant and memorable
Fall storm to reckon with.

More information can be found in the WOCN31 CWHX tropical cyclone
information statement updated by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of
Environment Canada.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

END/ASHTON/KUHN/OSPC

Quoting reedzone:


I disagree.. She looked worse yesterday in my opinion.. Shear has also dropped to 20-30 knots... Dry air seems to be the only thing currently weakening her. The baroclinic process of strengthening to begin in 24 hours. I believe Sandy will remain a Hurricane by 2 p.m.


She looked horrible yesterday. Definitely has become better organized since then.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I honestly don't think the NHC will downgrade her back to a TS again, even if conditions aren't technically fully supporting a hurricane. My reasoning is TS Sandy sounds less formidable to the public and also she's expected to strengthen again due to an extra shot of baroclinic energy within the next 24 hours. Just a thought though.


I agree with you. Even if she isn't technically a hurricane, it makes little sense to downgrade her, if the energy is going to make a bigger monster in 20 hours. If she holds close enough, from a public safety standpoint, I am just fine with that.
Tropical Cyclone Information Statements
WOCN31 CWHX 271334 CCA
Tropical cyclone information statement corrected by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 10:34 AM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Based on recent reconnaissance information Sandy has regained
Hurricane strength. Sandy will be reaching the East Coast of
The United States on Monday. A wide range of impacts are
Likely across parts of Eastern Canada.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: 28.8north 76.8west about 350 kilometres northeast of
Freeport Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h.

Present movement: north 17 km/h

Minimum central pressure: 960 MB

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Sandy is currently north of the Bahamas and is moving
north-northeastward. The winds associated with Sandy have
Diminished somewhat since yesterday but remain well in excess of 100
km/h. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to continue to track
north or northeastward while remaining at hurricane strength. Sandy
will gradually lose some of its tropical characteristics during the
next few days. On Monday Sandy is expected to take a turn to the
northwest and begin interacting with an approaching trough from the
west. Current indications are that Sandy will strengthen and move
inland on the United States East Coast late Monday as a very large
and powerful storm. There are various factors influencing the
evolution of the storm. As a result there is still a relatively
High degree of uncertainty in the impacts of the storm.

Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario
and Western Quebec are likely to see the most rainfall from this
system with total amounts by Tuesday evening possibly reaching the
50 to 100 millimetre range which would be typical for post-tropical
weather systems. Heavy rain could also affect parts of the
Maritimes. The precipitation could mix with or turn into snow over
parts of South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as
temperatures near the freezing mark north and west of the storm.
Most areas will likely also be subject to strong winds with gusts
around 100 km/h possible. Very strong winds will also affect
Central and Western Quebec. Gusty winds can also be expected in the
Maritimes. People living in these areas are urged to pay close
attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre and local
weather forecasts and possible future warnings throughout
The weekend.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force winds are expected to spread to Canadian waters well in
advance of Sandy reaching the United States coastline later on
Monday. Gales are expected on Monday over the Great Lakes, the St
Lawrence seaway and western Maritimes marine waters.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/HATT/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER

BDAwx: Remember that although tropical storm force winds extend up to 450miles away from the center, not everywhere between the storm and 450miles will have tropical storm force winds. These winds will probably be in bands far removed from the center.
1117 TropicalAnalystwx13: No. Buoys are showing they literally extend over 400 miles out from the center of Sandy.

I think what BDAwx is referring to is that, simplisticly, the windfield is egg-shaped with the center skewed toward the left* of the "big end" at the bottom*... and not a circle equidistant around the center. Then there is the rest of the surrounding weather (atmospheric conditions) that distorts the basic egg-shape.
Hence the "TropicalStorm-force winds extend up to 450miles from the center."

* left and bottom in relation to the storm's travel-direction with the top being the direction of travel
1198. redux
i live downtown bmore : /

fortunately, im kinda up on a hill...maybe 50 feet above sea level? 4th floor in a hundred year old masonry and steel hotel?
FXCN31 CWHX 271200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.53 AM ADT
SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT, TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 N
AND LONGITUDE 76.4 W, ABOUT 191 NAUTICAL MILES OR 354 KM NORTHEAST OF
FREEPORT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS (111 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 969 MB. SANDY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 9
KNOTS (17 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 27 9.00 AM 29.0N 76.4W 969 60 111
OCT 27 9.00 PM 30.6N 75.0W 969 60 111
OCT 28 9.00 AM 32.3N 73.3W 969 60 111
OCT 28 9.00 PM 34.5N 72.0W 964 65 120
OCT 29 9.00 AM 36.8N 72.6W 960 65 120
OCT 29 9.00 PM 38.9N 74.5W 965 60 111
OCT 30 9.00 AM 40.4N 76.0W 970 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 30 9.00 PM 41.1N 77.0W 975 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 9.00 AM 42.0N 77.5W 980 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 9.00 PM 43.0N 77.5W 985 35 65 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

TROPICAL STORM SANDY HAS INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. BUOY B41010 ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
THE CENTRE HAS BEEN REPORTING NORTHERLY GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
FOR THE PAST 5 HOURS NEAR THIS DEEP CONVECTION. SFMR AND DROPSONDE
DATA INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 55 KNOT WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION TO THE
WEST AS WELL. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WELL WITHIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SANDY'S
CENTRE.
SANDY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SPEED ESTIMATED AT 9
KNOTS. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT
SANDY HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. HOWEVER, THE WIND
FIELD IS GETTING LARGER AS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT DATA.



B. PROGNOSTIC

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SANDY TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND CAUSE SANDY TO TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE US EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME SANDY IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. PHASE
SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH SANDY WILL BE RECEIVING
BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST, THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
CORE UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND. LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GO INLAND AS A LARGE POWERFUL CYCLONE WHILE
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL.

ON TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL
BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND IN THE
UNITED STATES. POST-TROPICAL SANDY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL BE GREATLY WEAKENED AND WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW.

VERY STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS POST-TROPICAL
SANDY APPROACHES. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY'S CENTRE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
27/12Z 390 215 180 275 40 50 80 135 0 0 0 0
28/00Z 375 255 235 270 65 105 125 160 0 0 0 0
28/12Z 360 285 285 270 80 110 150 160 0 0 0 0
29/00Z 360 315 300 285 105 110 150 160 50 50 20 30
29/12Z 360 325 255 235 130 130 115 130 50 50 20 30
30/00Z 360 310 165 100 145 145 40 45 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 360 300 200 100 150 150 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/00Z 360 300 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/12Z 300 300 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END/COUTURIER/HATT

Sandy has the appearance of a subtropical storm, but the winds of a warm-core hurricane. Compare her current appearance to Subtropical Storm Beryl earlier this season:

Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Wash..looks like the party is still on as planned?
Correct.Still having a good time.

Speaking of parties there was plenty of hurricane parties in the bars yestrday night in downtown D.C.I went to one.Hey I was getting free shots so no complaints here.
Quoting indianrivguy:
That front is pushing Sandy ENE already

I agree, the NHC mentioned in their last discussion that an eastward/ENE jog was occurring, but I'd call it more than a jog at this point:

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I disagree, if anything the convective structure has taken on a more tropical look than this morning.


I don't think the strength of the storm has changed any, but the structure is continuing to evolve. It's pretty much becoming more hybrid with every passing NOAA update. Though convection is on a downward trend as MAweatherboy1 pointed out, but what REED and CyberTeddy have pointed out is that shear has dropped significantly and you can see this by satellite presentation as Sandy's western flank as improved its outflow and expanded both west and southwest a bit. Also what convection is taking place, be it on a slight downward trend, is now much closely located to the center now versus the last 2 days.

I think we will see Sandy organize more tonight into tomorrow morning as it rides the Gulf Stream waiting for her steroids shot.




Myrtle beach cam Link

Jacksonville Beach Pier cam Link
Looking choppy.

Per the 11am NHC advisory, 12-foot seas from Sandy now cover a diameter of over 1,000 miles. A huge storm.

Goodnight all, Stay safe and prepare for Sandy
1205. atris
Quoting Maryland1:


I agree with you. Even if she isn't technically a hurricane, it makes little sense to downgrade her, if the energy is going to make a bigger monster in 20 hours. If she holds close enough, from a public safety standpoint, I am just fine with that.


Completely Agree with you
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I honestly don't think the NHC will downgrade her back to a TS again, even if conditions aren't technically fully supporting a hurricane. My reasoning is TS Sandy sounds less formidable to the public and also she's expected to strengthen again due to an extra shot of baroclinic energy within the next 24 hours. Just a thought though.
You may be right. Within minutes of this morning's announcement that Sandy was no longer a hurricane, a number of headlines appeared along the lines of, "Sandy Now Just a Tropical Storm", or "Sandy May Be Less Of A Threat", or "Weaker Sandy May be Good News For The Northeast". IOW, the typical it's-all-about-the-headlines-not-the-veracity-of-t he-content stuff that passes for "journalism" these days.
It will be a terrible, but amazing thing to watch the pressures drop on this storm. While I still have power.
If Sandy is getting pushed more ENE now does that mean when she hooks back landfall could be a little further south?
1209. LargoFl
My friend up in NJ just called and gave me a good analogy...he was there for Irene..he remembers all the flooding and destruction..and at the time..he was saying to himself, I hope this does not come IN.....well folks..think of it like this up..THIS time IRENE IS..coming in...he made a great point there..and he's prepared and ready..are YOU?
1210. LargoFl
Quoting CapeFearCane96:
If Sandy is getting pushed more ENE now does that mean when she hooks back landfall could be a little further south?
we just have to wait and see
night aussie. thanks for all your posts.
1212. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Correct.Still having a good time.

Speaking of parties there was plenty of hurricane parties in the bars yestrday night in downtown D.C.I went to one.Hey I was getting free shots so no complaints here.


LOL..I hear ya!
Quoting Neapolitan:
You may be right. Within minutes of this morning's announcement that Sandy was no longer a hurricane, a number of headlines appeared along the lines of, "Sandy Now Just a Tropical Storm", or "Sandy May Be Less Of A Threat", or "Weaker Sandy May be Good News For The Northeast". IOW, the typical it's-all-about-the-headlines-not-the-veracity-of-t he-content stuff that passes for "journalism" these days.


And now, the headlines are 'Sandy Intensifies back to a Hurricane, Northeast on Alert'

Honestly, was there really a difference between a 70mph TS and a 75mph Hurricane? The amount of disinformation that the news dishes out to the public is amazing, no wonder people are complacent.
1214. LargoFl
Quoting Maryland1:
It will be a terrible, but amazing thing to watch the pressures drop on this storm. While I still have power.
I sure hope your ok all thru this storm..stay safe up there ok
1215. yqt1001
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And now, the headlines are 'Sandy Intensifies back to a Hurricane, Northeast on Alert'

Honestly, was there really a difference between a 70mph TS and a 75mph Hurricane? The amount of disinformation that the news dishes out to the public is amazing, no wonder people are complacent.


Really it's more of a fault on the SSHWS scale than the media. I'm sure the people who write those titles know nothing about how the scale works.
1216. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:
night aussie. thanks for all your posts.
ditto..nite aussie
1217. K8eCane
I hope and pray EVERYONE, but especially those on the blog here, stay safe thru this
Quoting yqt1001:


Really it's more of a fault on the SSHWS scale than the media. I'm sure the people who write those titles know nothing about how the scale works.


Their job is to research before posting, if they can't research what the heck a Category 1 hurricane is and what a tropical storm is, I have serious doubts about their capacity as a news organization. The media does this kind of stuff to attract interest, and views.
1219. LargoFl
NAEFS model at 48 hours from now..........
1220. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:
I hope and pray EVERYONE, but especially those on the blog here, stay safe thru this


I cant help but think of Stormtop, who as far as I know, we never heard from after Katrina
Afternoon everybody!

If anyone cares, Typhoon Son-tinh is a powerful category 3 typhoon.

1222. zawxdsk
I think based on what we will see from Sandy and what we saw with Isaac, this will be the last year of using Saffir-Simpson alone to rate hurricanes. This will be a good thing overall.

It's just not fair to compare these storms based on wind alone - especially because flooding exponentiates the destruction in modern storms.

Its hard to speculate what the new ratings system will/or should be. I'm sure they will have something to do with NHC's different impact ratings types, but its long overdue.
It just occurred to me that the center of Sandy is not exposed...
Quoting LargoFl:
I sure hope your ok all thru this storm..stay safe up there ok


Very prepared and in a safe place, few trees and on a hill. But there are many millions of people who aren't in such safe places, my thoughts are with them. I've gone through some hurricanes, but many of us up here have no clue what is going to happen, Largo, just no clue. All we can really hope for is that the storm decides to maintain pressure. Because real weakening isn't in the cards anymore.
sandy is coming
and she is going to be
one kick in the ass storm
get ready this is not a game
well maybe for sandy
1226. LargoFl
NAEFS MODEL AT 54 HOURS..............
1227. LargoFl
Quoting Maryland1:


Very prepared and in a safe place, few trees and on a hill. But there are many millions of people who aren't in such safe places, my thoughts are with them. I've gone through some hurricanes, but many of us up here have no clue what is going to happen, Largo, just no clue. All we can really hope for is that the storm decides to maintain pressure. Because real weakening isn't in the cards anymore.
yes I really think she is going to come in full force, there isnt really anything thats going to weaken her, not once she's up there, she's riding the warm waters of the gulf stream..well we'll see,this time monday its going to be bad..thats one thing we can count on..and those that did NOT prepare..will learn a valuable lesson for next time
1228. hydrus
1229. LargoFl
winds really gusting now around me
1230. Thrawst
Lots of damage here in Nassau... just got power back and internet. Will post pictures later... worst storm since i moved here.
You thinks she's massive now, but she's only going to get bigger.
1233. beell
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Heights
That Have a 1 in 10 Chance of Being Exceeded (NGVD-1929)
Hurricane Sandy (2012) Advisory 21
For the 77 hours from 11 AM EDT Sat Oct 27 to 04 PM EDT Tue Oct 30




Storm Surge Exceedence
Quoting washingtonian115:
Correct.Still having a good time.

Speaking of parties there was plenty of hurricane parties in the bars yestrday night in downtown D.C.I went to one.Hey I was getting free shots so no complaints here.
Talking about parties this coming Thursday is my birthday:)
So the recon plane that was headed for the center of Sandy that is supposed to update on Google Earth, the recon site, etc. every 10 minutes has not updated in an hour. Doesn't sound too good.
Quoting allancalderini:
Talking about parties this coming Thursday is my birthday:)
Happy related birthday.
1237. LargoFl
Hatteras Cam...........
Quoting LargoFl:
yes I really think she is going to come in full force, there isnt really anything thats going to weaken her, not once she's up there, she's riding the warm waters of the gulf stream..well we'll see,this time monday its going to be bad..thats one thing we can count on..and those that did NOT prepare..will learn a valuable lesson for next time



Will we have sustained hurricane force winds in Maryland. i am up in in the north east part of the state (Bel Air). I really can't imagine what to expect. Will it be like being in a severe thunderstorm for a long time? I just can't wrap my mind around what it will actually be like outside. I am a little worried it will be noisy and scare my children.
this thing is pretty weak here in MB
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So the recon plane that was headed for the center of Sandy that is supposed to update on Google Earth, the recon site, etc. every 10 minutes has not updated in an hour. Doesn't sound too good.

There is a few options here.
1) recon crashed
2) being secretive
3) a bunch of failures

I hope nothing bad happened.
1015 clamshell: Rabid news reporting is not as entertaining as the reporters might think, especially when peoples lives are in the mix, now and in the future. Deny it all they might, they have an obligation to report such news responsibly and in somewhat subdued terms as well.

Kinda like the CubanMissileCrisis... and everybody being ticked off about all the fuss that had been kicked up by the media cuz there warn't no nuclear war.
1243. K8eCane
Quoting FyrtleMyrtle:
this thing is pretty weak here in MB


Starting to pick up here in Wilmington
1244. Gearsts
1245. LargoFl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hr69
look how tightly knit those pressure lines are
Quoting wxchaser97:

There is a few options here.
1) recon crashed
2) being secretive
3) a bunch of failures

I hope nothing bad happened.

I pick number 2. They have began a mission seeding the clouds with silver iodine to reduction the amount of available water vapor and thus weaken the system.

Watch for contrails on the next high resolution visible image from Goes 14 ;-]
Can anyone explain why Philadelphia is only projecting peak sustained 40 mph winds? Most of the models have this thing pass over or within 200 miles north/south of Philly, and being only 60 miles from the ocean would think winds would be higher .
Quoting Thrawst:
Lots of damage here in Nassau... just got power back and internet. Will post pictures later... worst storm since i moved here.

I was watching your local tv stream a couple three days ago and the weather guy said that Nassau was only going to get 50mph winds, boy was he wrong.

Glad you made it
Quoting Thrawst:
Lots of damage here in Nassau... just got power back and internet. Will post pictures later... worst storm since i moved here.

Worse then Irene? :O
1250. LargoFl
Quoting mdweathergirl:



Will we have sustained hurricane force winds in Maryland. i am up in in the north east part of the state (Bel Air). I really can't imagine what to expect. Will it be like being in a severe thunderstorm for a long time? I just can't wrap my mind around what it will actually be like outside. I am a little worried it will be noisy and scare my children.
they are saying now, hurricane force winds will extend out 100 miles from the center so its way too early to say who might be getting those winds..not until they know 100% for sure exactly where..its going to come into..
Quoting yqt1001:


Really it's more of a fault on the SSHWS scale than the media. I'm sure the people who write those titles know nothing about how the scale works.
but all the journalists took "how to sensationalize a headline 101" in journalism school
1252. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
Happy related birthday.
Thanks can`t wait I know my friends are making a surprise party at school and they think I don`t know.lol



More bad news from Sandy....The deaths in haiti increased to 34, are saying haitian authorities
Quoting stormchaser19:



More bad news from Sandy....The deaths in haiti increased to 34, are saying haitian authorities

:(
1256. ncstorm
From the Starnews in Wilmington, NC

12 p.m. update

As tropical storm winds from Hurricane Sandy near North Carolina's coast, meteorologists say heavy, consistent gusts will likely arrive in the Cape Fear region Saturday evening.
Photo Galleries

Local Surf from Hurricane Sandy

The Frying Pan Shoals buoy, about 35 miles southeast of Wilmington, recorded gusts up to 57 miles per hour around 10 a.m. Saturday. The minimum speed for winds in a tropical storm is 39 miles per hour.

A buoy by Jacksonville, meanwhile recorded sustained tropical storm gusts.

While rain is supposed to fall in the Cape Fear region throughout Saturday, winds probably won't pick up until nightfall said Josh Weiss, a National Weather Service meteorologist.

Weiss added that while there may be some tropical storm-like gusts before nightfall, sustained heavy winds wouldn't arrive until then.

Rainfall is already causing some problems in Wilmington, though.
The Cape Fear Fair and Expo has been cancelled for Saturday.

Skip Watkins, the event's organizer, said a later start would be considered for Sunday, depending on weather and the fairgrounds' conditions.

Standing water was also reported at Carolina Beach Avenue North and Canal Drive in Carolina Beach.

Flooding shouldn't be much of a problem for the Cape Fear region, Weiss said, adding that very little rainfall in the past couple weeks has decreased the risk.

“We're projecting one to three inches of rain in the Cape Fear region, and that shouldn't really produce any inland flooding concerns,” Weiss said. “The only concerns we have are coastal flooding tonight, and that's associated more with high tides.”
Quoting stormchaser19:



More bad news from Sandy....The deaths in haiti increased to 34, are saying haitian authorities

Do you have a link?
i think sandy has a vary good ch of being retired
1260. LargoFl

GFS at 72 Hrs. (3 days)
GFDL is in about the same area.
HWRF takes Sandy further north, looking like New London, CT landfall.
1262. LargoFl
new jersey.................“We should not underestimate the impact of this storm, and we should not assume our predictions will be wrong,” Christie said.

Evacuation centers will be open for all those in need, he said. Also, everyone around the state should prepare for power outages of up to 10 days, he said.

Those on the shoreline who are not on the Barrier Islands should consider voluntary evacuation, Christie said.

New Jersey state police Col. Rick Fuentes said tropical storm-force winds of 40 to 70 mph will blow statewide, and hurricane-force winds will be blowing along the shoreline.

Fuentes reminded anyone subject to an evacuation order to obey. First responders will also be seeking shelter once tropical storm-force winds begin blowing, and may not be available for rescues.
1263. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
v

yeap pretty strong winds aall over fl still from sandy look how far away she is this should give folks upnorth a hint of what they going to get be interesting to see if they will will extend the wind adv for all of fl again suppose to expire at 8pm tonight lets see but the winds are very strong
they announced the new death tolls with pictures twc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do you have a link?


I don't have the link, but is true...A respectable Journalist of my country post on twitter that the deaths are risen up from 26 to 34
1266. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:
v

yeap pretty strong winds aall over fl still from sandy look how far away she is this should give folks upnorth a hint of what they going to get be interesting to see if they will will extend the wind adv for all of fl again suppose to expire at 8pm tonight lets see but the winds are very strong
they sure are strong and we are far away from this storm
1267. ncstorm
12z GFS 10m Winds at 84 hours

Any streaming news coverage of this storm yet?
impressive cold front in the gulf moving south
Quoting stormchaser19:


I don't have the link, but is true...A respectable Journalist of my country post on twitter that the deaths are risen up from 26 to 34


That makes the total death toll up to 51.
Quoting chicagowatcher:
Any streaming news coverage of this storm yet?
TWC, and most local stations on the east coast.
1272. LargoFl
Quoting islander101010:
impressive cold front in the gulf moving south
supposed to give me here..mornings low 50's this coming week after sandy finishes with us with the winds etc
1273. pottery
In the meantime, in Trinidad....

Temp 93
Humid. 58%
Heat Index 107........

Y'all can send Sandy down here when you're done with her. Snow and all.
Quoting LargoFl:
supposed to give me here..mornings low 50's this coming week after sandy finishes with us with the winds etc
mid 40s in my locale. :) you get the wind, I get the cold nights
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That makes the total death toll up to 51.


There was a very persistent secondary blob of moisture - almost analagous to an earthquake aftershock - that continued to affect eastern Haiti and the D.R. after Sandy proper had moved away.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 15:37:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°18'N 75°44'W (29.3N 75.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 309 miles (497 km) to the NNE (19°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,071m (3,514ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the ENE (64°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 154° at 52kts (From the SSE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:11:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:11:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND TSTMS NW SIDE OF CENTER
SONDE DATA UNAVAILABLE
1277. guygee
As the forecast unfolds we will definitely want to watch the polar analysis such as this one to verify if the predicted massive blocking high is building over the far North Atlantic through NE Canada.
1278. wxmod
Global air pollution over Greenland. MODIS satellite photo today.

1279. ge2655
Winds have really picked up here (midway between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, a mile west of the ocean) since earlier this morning. There have also been more frequent and intense wind gusts blasting the trees. Beautiful clear sky but the occasional puffy clouds are zooming by from NW to SE.

Regards,
-Gary
Hollywood Florida
1280. hydrus
1283. LargoFl
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
mid 40s in my locale. :) you get the wind, I get the cold nights
yeah to my north its gonna get cold alright, but Im going to love thoselow 70's high temps daytime
If you click on "fronts" you can see a melding of the systems is starting to take place.
1285. LargoFl
Quoting ge2655:
Winds have really picked up here (midway between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, a mile west of the ocean) since earlier this morning. There have also been more frequent and intense wind gusts blasting the trees. Beautiful clear sky but the occasional puffy clouds are zooming by from NW to SE.

Regards,
-Gary
Hollywood Florida


we are under the outflow clouds, no sunshine for us.
1288. Thrawst
Quoting Articuno:

Worse then Irene? :O


Yes it was worse than Irene! Will post pictures of the local beach later... dramatically different look now.
1289. LargoFl
1291. 7544
looks like the above pic the clouds are expanding back building to the south all the way down to the lake again is she still expanding in size at this our thats why the winds are still very strong ove to the se fl area again tia
1292. LargoFl
get ready for several days of this
Quoting Ameister12:
You thinks she's massive now, but she's only going to get bigger.


It really is a hurricane within a noreaster, just like the forecast said.
1294. K8eCane
Quoting LargoFl:
get ready for several days of this


my news in wilmington said improvement by monday
Gusts are beginning to reach 30 mph here. Should increase to 50-60 mph overnight and early tomorrow morning.
1297. LargoFl
Quoting K8eCane:


my news in wilmington said improvement by monday
yep saturday sunday and parts of monday, depending
1298. Thrawst
Anyone heard from BahaHurican? Any info that was said?
1299. barbamz
Quoting Chicklit:
If you click on "fronts" you can see a melding of the systems is starting to take place.


Sure ... but the COC of Sandy seems to head way east in a hurry now. Maybe she doesn't want to mate with the ferocious trough, lol? Anyway she's right on the projected path.
1300. pottery
Quoting Thrawst:
Anyone heard from BahaHurican? Any info that was said?

He has not been around here for 2 days....
Cold air advection in progress over SE TX, chill in the air, heading for low 40s tomm morning. This shows how dynamic the situation is for the big event that is playing out with Sandy, gonna be one to watch
1302. LargoFl
Quoting chicagowatcher:
Any streaming news coverage of this storm yet?

Sorry (don't have access to TWC) :) Any east coast stations that anyone likes that's doing live stream coverage?

Thanks!!
Quoting Chicklit:

GFS at 70 Hrs. (3 days)
GFDL is in about the same area.
HWRF takes Sandy further north, looking like New London, CT landfall.


the Electric Boat shipyard there must be a bustle of prep. My sub was in a floating drydock there during tropical storm Carrie 1972. A LARGE pain in the fanny.
Quoting Ameister12:
Afternoon everybody!

If anyone cares, Typhoon Son-tinh is a powerful category 3 typhoon.

I'd still take Sandy + the 5 1/2 ponts.
Quoting barbamz:


Sure ... but the COC of Sandy seems to head way East in a hurry now. Maybe she doesn't want to mate with the ferocious trough, lol? Anyway she's right on the projected path.

oh wow, talk about ending the hurricane season with a bang and then unfortunately a whimper.
looks grave.
1307. guygee
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:55Z
...
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)

...
The fact that Sandy still has such a deep warm core really stands out. She is still very tropical.
1308. LargoFl
so when sandy comes ashore..she is going to push the ocean in front of her..up these inlets here?
1309. ncstorm
Quoting K8eCane:


my news in wilmington said improvement by monday


improvement of rain but not wind..
You know what surprises me about all of the models and maps? The amount of rain totals predicted for Long Island. It seems much lower than I thought it would be considering how close she will most likely make landfall and how long she will be around.

Granted, the rainfall totals are still high, of course, but I'm still surprised by predicted totals.
1311. Thrawst
10-15 footers crashing beach front properties

Quoting pottery:

He has not been around here for 2 days....


"He" is a "she"
Sandy is looking much better now that convection is over the center, if that persists I think she could strengthen some
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:
You know what surprises me about all of the models and maps? The amount of rain totals predicted for Long Island. It seems much lower than I thought it would be considering how close she will most likely make landfall and how long she will be around.

Granted, the rainfall totals are still high, of course, but I'm still surprised by predicted totals.


Me too!
1315. pottery
Quoting LargoFl:
so when sandy comes ashore..she is going to push the ocean in front of her..up these inlets here?

Nowhere else for the water to go, really.
Could get real nasty in there.
Quoting indianrivguy:


the Electric Boat shipyard there must be a bustle of prep. My sub was in a floating drydock there during tropical storm Carrie 1972. A LARGE pain in the fanny.


my daughter's boyfriend is a submarine officer...apparently they're all workin' double time right now...
Oughtta get ready
Or better, get out!
Keep your nerve steady
While the media shout,
"Sandy's claws are coming to town"
Quoting guygee:
The fact that Sandy still has such a deep warm core really stands out. She is still very tropical.
yep and at the 72 hr mark warm core is still there as landfall occurs just sw of NYC

1319. K8eCane
Quoting ncstorm:


improvement of rain but not wind..


Still drivable tho, right? new hanover county schools? what do you guess?
Quoting winter123:


It really is a hurricane within a noreaster, just like the forecast said.


I just hope there aren't any George Clooney character types out fishing swordfish.
Quoting guygee:
As the forecast unfolds we will definitely want to watch the polar analysis such as this one to verify if the predicted massive blocking high is building over the far North Atlantic through NE Canada.


For blocking you really want to look at 500 HPa (mb). Its the Rossby wave that really illustrates the zonal index (degree of blocking). Surface pressure is really a symptom of what is happening in the upper air, usually.


Sandy is looking more and more like the Perfect Storm...



Wow that is a substantial pressure drop already since yesterday already.
1324. LargoFl
Quoting pottery:

Nowhere else for the water to go, really.
Could get real nasty in there.
and if i read right the tides will be above normal anyway with full moon etc..whew going to be alot of flooding from surge, then throw in all the rainfall etc..yes not going to be good there
Quoting guygee:
The fact that Sandy still has such a deep warm core really stands out. She is still very tropical.


Ya, AMSU shows it also, ~6:30 AM EDT this morning:


1326. guygee
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:
You know what surprises me about all of the models and maps? The amount of rain totals predicted for Long Island. It seems much lower than I thought it would be considering how close she will most likely make landfall and how long she will be around.

Granted, the rainfall totals are still high, of course, but I'm still surprised by predicted totals.
I am surprised too. I am thinking that there will be at least local pockets with much higher amounts, especially in areas favored by orographic lifting.
1327. LargoFl
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Sandy is looking more and more like the Perfect Storm...



sure is, geez those poor people up there
1328. pottery
Quoting presslord:


"He" is a "she"

OH !
How embarrassing.
For me, that is.

1329. 900MB
NYC checking in. I've been out of the loop for the last 3 hours. Is see NHC has shifted to S Jerz/Del landfall and it looks from appearances much better organized that I would have guessed.

What else did I miss?
Max winds fr HH?
Min pressure fr HH?
synopsis?
1330. LargoFl
Quoting guygee:
I am surprised too. I am thinking that there will be at least local pockets with much higher amounts, especially in areas favored by orographic lifting.
just remember..they are predictions..and how many times have predictions been wrong in the past?
Quoting yonzabam:


I just hope there aren't any George Clooney character types out fishing swordfish.


I'm hunkered down in my pilothouse on my recliner...with a bottle of something pottery would find appealing...
1332. LargoFl
Quoting aspectre:
Oughtta get ready
Or better, get out!
Keep your nerves steady
While the media shout,
"Sandy's claws are coming to town"
LOL good one
1333. 7544
for se fl

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...TODAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE ITEMS CAN GET BLOWN AROUND ALONG WITH A FEW
TREES GETTING UPROOTED. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME POWER
OUTAGES. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES CAN ALSO GET BLOWN AROUND
ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH OR
FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. MAKE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AS
THEY CAN BE BLOWN AROUND BY WINDS THIS STRONG.
Quoting presslord:


I'm hunkered down in my pilothouse on my recliner...with a bottle of something pottery would find appealing...


Geritol?
wow the quality of this website has declined dramatically in the past year.owning a boat rental company in key west i had come to rely on wunderground but i see i need to seek info elsewhere
1336. pottery
Quoting presslord:


I'm hunkered down in my pilothouse on my recliner...with a bottle of something pottery would find appealing...

I dont drink Milk, thanks.
1337. LargoFl

...THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY INTO A POWERFUL STORM
CROSSING THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY EVENING WILL MEAN AT LEAST
TWO TIDE CYCLES OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING...

.A COASTAL FLOOD OF RECORD IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WATERS IF THE TIMING OF SANDY COINCIDES WITH THE MONDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND THE CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS THE NEW JERSEY COAST
BETWEEN ATLANTIC CITY AND BELMAR.
Quoting pottery:

He has not been around here for 2 days....


Baha is a girl, by the way. Still very windy here in Port St Lucy. Thought it wouldbe calmer today.
1339. hydrus
Quoting presslord:


I'm hunkered down in my pilothouse on my recliner...with a bottle of something pottery would find appealing...
I have never felt jealous before. Then I read your post...sniffle....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep and at the 72 hr mark warm core is still there as landfall occurs just sw of NYC



12Z GFS keeps it warm core untill it reaches your neck of the woods.....



worried about nigel and baha
Quoting indianrivguy:


Geritol?


Oh, man! You get a Gold Star!
1343. hydrus
Quoting zoomiami:


Baha is a girl, by the way. Still very windy here in Port St Lucy. Thought it wouldbe calmer today.
Baha is a woman...cool..:)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting zoomiami:


Baha is a girl, by the way. Still very windy here in Port St Lucy. Thought it wouldbe calmer today.


What are you going all the way up here Zoo?
All,

My "energetic particle" model for Hurricane Sandy shows her destination is near Albion, NY, the site of a massive sinkhole that shutdown the Erie Canal in August of this year. They also had an Earthquake near there yesterday, which supports my model. Until she reaches that area, there is a massive particle orbiting up from the earth/ocean through her eye, through the atmosphere and orbiting back into the ground near wear the sinkhole was formed in Albion, NY. This particle is bad for aircraft and will create a low pressure trough around itself. It is all on my blog @ darkmattersalot.com
Link

Current blocking. Strong Rex block along 50W from Greenland to the S.
1348. guygee
Quoting Progster:
For blocking you really want to look at 500 HPa (mb). Its the Rossby wave that really illustrates the zonal index (degree of blocking). Surface pressure is really a symptom of what is happening in the upper air, usually.
Good point, here is a better one to watch then:

1349. LargoFl
The weather guru's are going to have some work to do when this is over...a new designation for an atlantic storm,cold on the outside with a hot belly huh......along with new surge and wind estimates etc..a whole NEW animal in the atlantic..never seen before in weather history..and we HERE..are witness to it..amazing huh
1350. ncstorm
Quoting K8eCane:


Still drivable tho, right? new hanover county schools? what do you guess?



..depends on where she makes landfall and if the bottom half of convection fills in for Sandy..if around NYC, then I see school on but somewhere around VA, then I dont think so..
getting windy with more frequent squalls/steady drizzle here in Kure Beach, NC. Some nice rollers with rooster tails showing up. Rollers can be seen on the ocean from acrss the street at our place so they are certainly building in the past 3 hours.

http://surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php

Canal Drive in Carolina Beach has some minor flooding (which happens even with thunderstorms up there)

High tide @18:37 4.32 coinciding with increasing wind to 38 and waves cresting estimated at 12 feet - will try for pics before dark if possible.

Love this weather! Brunswick stew & fresh buttermilk dinner rolls for supper after foray to beach followed by hot outdoor showers for all who venture out. Sweet potato hand pies in front of the tube for scary movies - generator with take us through when power goes out - Love this weather!

Of course we are prepared, above the flood zone, the outside cats are tucked up in one of the secured kayaks after a coveted wet catfood breakfast, blowables are secured, dogs are exercised & fed.
I'm looking to find live news feeds from Philadelphia. Jersey or surrounding areas would be good too. I'd like to keep up with what's going on up there. Any suggestions would be helpful. Thanks!


Sandy's IKE (surge): 5.4 / 6. Hurricane Ike actually reached a peak of 5.4:

1354. Dsntslp
Quoting boatrentals:
wow the quality of this website has declined dramatically in the past year.owning a boat rental company in key west i had come to rely on wunderground but i see i need to seek info elsewhere
Self edit :) ;)
If Baltimore, or NY had made it to the World Series they would be scheduled to play tonight, Sunday night and Monday night on the east coast.

With this storm the World Series could still have been in progress in mid november with all the weather delays!