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Sandy moving ashore, bringing record storm surge flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:40 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

Hurricane Sandy is making its final approach, and will be ashore near the Delaware/new Jersey border early this evening. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm", and no storm since at least 1988 has struck the U.S. with a wider area of tropical storm-force winds. High wind warnings are posted from Northern Michigan to Lake Okeechobee, Florida, and from Chicago to Maine. All-time low pressure records have been set at Atlantic City, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, and Wilmington Delaware. The rain is coming down in sheets along the east coast, where heavy rain stretches from Virginia to Pennsylvania and New York. Virginia Beach, VA has seen 9.26", Dover, DE has seen 6.36" and Ocean City, MD has seen 6.31". Some of the heaviest rain, apart from close to the center, is actually on the far western side, where a strong band of precipitation has set up running north to south from Erie, PA south to Pittsburgh, PA. This strong band of rain is moving west into Ohio. Wind gusts have been peaking above 80 mph in New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts this afternoon. The strongest gusts we've seen today include 86 mph at Westerly, RI, 84 mph on Plum Island, NY, and 83 mph on Cuttyhunk Island, MA. Sustained winds speeds of 40+ mph stretch from Delaware to Rhode island, with the strongest sustained wind closest to the center of circulation in Lewes, DE. All of this strong, onshore wind has been pushing huge amounts of water toward the shore, where it has nothing to do but pile up over land. As of 5pm EDT, here are the highest storm surges seen:

Kings Point, NY: 7.85 ft
Sandy Hook, NJ: 7.55 ft
Bridgeport, CT: 7.3 ft
New Haven, CT: 6.82 ft
The Battery, NY: 6.7 ft
New London, CT: 5.76 ft
Atlantic City, NJ: 5.69 ft
Lewes, DE: 4.46 ft

We just added live tide gauge heights on our wundermap, so you can follow the changes in surge as Sandy roars ashore.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Sandy taken at 2:20 pm EDT Monday, October 29, 2012. At the time, Sandy was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy bringing high winds all the way to Chicago
The scope of this storm is truly astonishing. As Sandy combines with the fall low pressure system over the Northeast U.S., its circulation will intensify, and winds over the Great Lakes will increase. Storm warnings are posted for Tuesday on Lake Michigan near Chicago, where sustained 55 - 60 mph winds and waves of 20 - 25 feet are expected. Storm warnings are posted on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and high winds from Sandy blowing off of Lake Erie caused damage to signs in Port Clinton, Ohio this afternoon. Check out this webcam view of a very angry Lake Erie. High wind warnings extend from northern Michigan to Central Florida.

Sandy's storm tide peaking early this evening
Storm surge should peak between 7 - 8 pm, and high tide will peak a little later, 8 - 9 pm, depending upon location. The storm tide--how high the water gets above some reference point, commonly chosen to be the average of the daily lowest low tide of the month (Mean Lower Low Water, MLLW) is what we use to discuss how bad storm surge flooding is. The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the tide. At Sandy Hook, NJ, the storm tide has reached 10.11', and is still rising. This breaks the old record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960, and the Nor'easter of Dec 11th, 1992. As of 6 pm EDT, the storm tide at The Battery in New York City was 10.1'. The record is 10.5', set during Hurricane Donna of 1960. That also happens to be the level the Lower Manhattan subway system will flood, unless the defenses have been improved since last year's Hurricane Irene. High tide is at 8:53 pm. The rise in surge has slowed down, but the surge may not be slowing down fast enough to avoid record flooding in New York City.

Links for Sandy
An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

I have to cut this post a bit short due to the many media interviews I'm involved with, but will be back in the morning with much more.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It is amazing how weather people have such a violent reaction to discussing political issues, when they are so absolutely imperative to weather issues, particularly with the actuality of global warming creating such catastrophic changes in weather patterns and the scope and effect of storms. When Romney said that he wanted to defund FEMA and leave the rescue and recovery to states, that was the statement of someone with no understanding of the gravity of hurricanes and the cost a of recovery both in human and financial terms. The other issue is the Republican Parties refusal to accept global warming as proven weather science, their constant determination to de-fund NHC and weather science research, and their drive to deregulate the environmental restrictions which prevent major corporations from polluting the atmosphere and creating more emissions that contribute to global warming. People like us with a serious weather involvement and interest must support weather science and weather and climate change researchers, by voting for the candidates who support our interests and the best interests of a world now seriously impacted by global climate change. If you are a weather person who is voting Republican, you have your head in a place that sees no sunshine.
Quoting Jarhead6012:


So far your the only one that has brought race into the equation. Maybe it is YOU that places too much emphasis into race or skin color.
So someone talking about white governors and black mayors isn't bringing race? Who cares what color anybody is when lives are at stake?

EDIT: I wonder if you realized I was responding to a QUOTE of an earlier blogger...
1465 Dakster: At one point, a person (not a government) has to take responsibility for their own actions.

On the other hand, high government officials should not be giving out BAD advice to the public. Even smokers would be a might peeved ifn the SurgeonGeneral recommended that folks start smoking (to promote the welfare of tobacco farmers, and to increase tax revenue).
AtlanticCity's mayor knowingly gave out BAD advice to keep the tourists and gamblers in town. He gambled citizens' lives against The Storm in order to please the business interests... in hope of keeping the flow of taxes and, more importantly to him, campaign contributions pouring in.
Quoting Jarhead6012:


So far your the only one that has brought race into the equation. Maybe it is YOU that places too much emphasis into race or skin color.


I think you have Baha confused with the original poster MahFL Devil Dog.
Quoting BahaHurican:
So someone talking about white governors and black mayors isn't bringing race? Who cares what color anybody is when lives are at stake?

EDIT: I wonder if you realized I was responding to a QUOTE of an earlier blogger...


My apologies....mea culpa...:)
Quoting Ossqss:


There is not a single instance where your implied link between extreme weather and climate change has been substantiated by NOAA or NASA. Not one. In fact they have documented them specifically as weather events with no link to climate change what so ever.

That is the cold hard fact, not spin.
Not sure why you speak only of NOAA/NASA; there are indeed published, peer-reviewed papers from creible non-NOAA scientists that show a clear and demonstrable link between CO2-induced warming and some of our increasingly extreme weather.

It boggles the mind that there are still those who believe the 3.4 million metric tons of fossil-fuel CO2 we humans pump into the atmosphere every hour of every day simply vanishes without a trace and has no effect whatsoever on the weather. If any good comes out of Sandy--and I use that term in a very relative way--it'll be in forcing a few die-hard ideologues to finally face reality.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I think you have Baha confused with the original poster MahFL Devil Dog.


I have apologized for that mistake...:)
Image of the evacuation at NYU.
Good Morning. Let's not make the aftermath of this tragedy for the Mid-Atlantic and NE worse than it already is............It's all about getting these areas back online now and prayers for the lives lost and monetary donations to relief agencies if you can is the pertinent issue.
Quoting Ossqss:


Good golly, we have a major disaster on our hands, people dead, and you want to spin your extreme ideology in a weather forum. How sad!

You should be ashamed of yourself.


I respectfully disagree.

While I wait to hear from my youngest son who is somewhere in the Brooklyn mess this morning, I'm more ashamed that I have not used this comment section to more vigorously agree the posters who are trying to make the connection between human modification of the climate and the increasing numbers of weather disasters.

Until we get off the fossil fuel habit, we can expect to see ourselves and our friends lying in the gutter of destruction more and more often. That doesn't have to be. We all have the key or switch in our hands. We just have to have the honesty to recognize we don't have to use it and the courage to do something different.

My condolences to all who have suffered in this storm. May your lives return to normal soon.
Quoting Ossqss:


There is not a single instance where your implied link between extreme weather and climate change has been substantiated by NOAA or NASA. Not one. In fact they have documented them specifically as weather events with no link to climate change what so ever.

That is the cold hard fact, not spin.


Anyone with a basic grasp of the science and half a dozen interconnected neurons understands that global warming results in more extreme weather.

Quoting Kristina40:
I think I'll go to a political blog and see if I can get some weather news. :/
Why don't you?
1515. BosGuy
Posted: Sat, Oct. 27, 2012, 3:27 PM
Sandy to close casinos, evacuate Atlantic City

WAYNE PARRY

The Associated Press

...That is precisely the kind of thinking that worries Atlantic City officials. At a news conference at City Hall, Mayor Lorenzo Langford urged people to take the warnings seriously and get out while there was still time.

Tom Foley, Atlantic City's emergency management director, recalled the March 1962 storm when the ocean and the bay met in the center of the city.

"This is predicted to get that bad," he said.

Yet, based on past experience, Atlantic City officials realize not everyone will heed the call to leave. So despite the mandatory evacuation order, the city is offering to bus residents to mainland shelters of the island. It also is opening its public schools as shelters, capable of housing a total of 3,000 people.

Link
Quoting percylives:


I respectfully disagree.

While I wait to hear from my youngest son who is somewhere in the Brooklyn mess this morning, I'm more ashamed that I have not used this comment section to more vigorously agree the posters who are trying to make the connection between human modification of the climate and the increasing numbers of weather disasters.

Until we get off the fossil fuel habit, we can expect to see ourselves and our friends lying in the gutter of destruction more and more often. That doesn't have to be. We all have the key or switch in our hands. We just have to have the honesty to recognize we don't have to use it and the courage to do something different.

My condolences to all who have suffered in this storm. May your lives return to normal soon.


yet you are posting on the internet with a computer that was made out of oil. yes plastic comes from oil, using electricity that is provided by either coal, natural gas, or nuclear plants. Probably driving a car that uses gas. Your home is heated by either electric or natural gas, your home uses electricty.

This is what gets me about people that preach about using too much oil or coal, you use it EVERY DAY.
Quoting Jarhead6012:


So what caused OTHER climate change's then? What caused the start and end of the last ice age?

What caused the glacisers that created the great lakes to melt?

You want to know what causes global warming?
Hint....its that bright thing in the sky called the SUN.


So your argument appears to be, because there has been natural climate change in the past,it is impossible that humans could cause climate change.

Why do you assume that the two are mutually exclusive? Do you seriously think its impossible to have both natural factors and human-induced factors? I've never understood this argument. No one is saying that human ghg emissions are the only factor affecting our climate. But it's incredibly naive to think we are having no effect on the climate.
Quoting congaline:
Why don't you?


Perhaps because the rules of this blog are pretty clear about off topic discussion ESPECIALLY when there is an active storm being discussed that is causing deaths and massive destruction. Is that good enough for you or do we need a moderator to explain it?
Quoting Jarhead6012:


So what caused OTHER climate change's then? What caused the start and end of the last ice age?

What caused the glacisers that created the great lakes to melt?

You want to know what causes global warming?
Hint....its that bright thing in the sky called the SUN.



So, because previous changes to global climate were natural, the current warming must also be natural?

Even a child could see the logical fallacy of that.
I see the blog is in utter chaos...sigh
Quoting yonzabam:


Anyone with a basic grasp of the science and half a dozen interconnected neurons understands that global warming results in more extreme weather.



except for blizzards and cold related phenoms...

lets all set this aspect aside today and focus on recovery of destruction and deaths...many of us have family in those areas...me for one...today...i am more concerned about getting everyone out and getting life back to normal..not arguing semantics about why a hurricane could sustain the cold like it did and not diminish...oh wait...it encountered COLD air and did not diminish...stop the pointless bickering...Sandy is still there causing more damage and SNOW to many areaa as well as rain, wind, etc... (stepping of my soap box...this blog isnt what it use to be...)
1522. knative
So that poor mayor is some kind of pariah now, because of what the governor Christie stated.
everyones knows what ron paul said wondering what he:s mumbling this morning.
1524. icmoore
Quoting congaline:


I am reminded of Charlie Brown's teacher here "blah, blah, blah, blah....."

Edit: Thanks for the heads up about quoting you!! My mistake, I sure wouldn't want to do that. Your quote has been removed.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I see the blog is in utter chaos...sigh


Unfortunately.

Looking for aerial pictures of NJ or Long Island now that the sun is up, has anyone seen any?
Tanker washed ashore in Staten Island:

Sandy

(Source: @GMA)
Lots of tweets from staten island. One girl found dead, they think they have been forgotten out there, says it's really bad. National Guard heading out there now.

live stream Fox NY Link
So I see that we are blaming ourselves for Sandy being a very large storm. I'm just trying to figure out I was able to create a negatively tilted trough and a blocking high that foreced Sandy to the coast.
Everybody break out your tinfoil hats and flak jackets, the AGW and political loonies are out in force this morning. Seems like disasters bring them out like porch lights attract moths. Could we please just report/discuss the actual conditions and meteorology? The American people are generally quite resilient and people will be rescued and fed and we'll rebuild regardless of what political party is in power or what theories you have about climate. Thanks in advance.
Quoting JVGazeley:


Unfortunately.

Looking for aerial pictures of NJ or Long Island now that the sun is up, has anyone seen any?


sand everywhere on point pleasant...several feet of it have imbedded into the 1st stories of most of the homes on the beach
Finally back online... Man this bad attitude woman did some damage to the jersey shore.
morning CRS...long time no see...that pic is eerily reminiscent of hugo and the boats
New York City



Lindenhurst, NY



New York City

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


170 ft. water tanker blown ashore on Staten Island





I wonder if whats left of the Bounty will wash ashore somewhere?
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Epic win.


roflmbo...oh snap...

ok...back to the weather
Okay, I can't stand this argument/debate/discussion/fight/whatever you call this!

Is there a reason for doing this? Is it necessary for this to continue? I thought the blog was about weather, or things that are related to the blog entry. The blog entry is about Sandy and its effect on the Northeast. We should talk about these stuff, not some annoying argument.

Back to the tropics,
TD Seventeen-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, but it's not expected to do much.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





I wonder if whats left of the Bounty will wash ashore somewhere?


that would come in near NC...at least my best guess would be there
New York City

Quoting Neapolitan:
Tanker washed ashore in Staten Island:

Sandy

(Source: @GMA)


sorry


plus and minus are too close to each other, accidentally minused instead of plus :(
1545. MahFL
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Okay, I can't stand this argument/debate/discussion/fight/whatever you call this!

Is there a reason for doing this? Is it necessary for this to continue? I thought the blog was about weather, or things that are related to the blog entry. The blog entry is about Sandy and its effect on the Northeast. We should talk about these stuff, not some annoying argument.

Back to the tropics,
TD Seventeen-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, but it's not expected to do much.


No one cares about an EP fish storm.
These are all from the New York Area, here is the site with many more pictures. Incredible...

LINK













Quoting FunnelVortex:


Global warming results in less of a temperature contrast resulting in less extreme weather.



True, but only for temperate latitude gales.

There will be more extreme droughts, floods and heatwaves.

There will probably be more hurricanes, and it's also likely that a greater percentage of them will be majors.

With regard to tornadoes, there's more uncertainty, but my guess is that there will be more of them.

All of zone A and most of zones B and C were inundated with surge.

Quoting congaline:
We use it because we have not been offered a choice. The technology to reduce our dependence on oil is there. Do you know the amount of money spent by oil lobbyists to defeat any funding of research and development of renewable energies? Billions baby! To hear weather bloggers promoting the status quo, tells me one thing, you know NOTHING about real weather science.



Clueless.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
These are all from the New York Area, here is the site with many more pictures. Incredible...

LINK















Is that Ground Zero?
Quoting Bobbyweather:
I thought the blog was about weather, or things that are related to the blog entry.



Heck no, why would you think that? This is a blog for discussion of which president caused Global Climate Change & which political party is most responsible for making Sandy a Cat-1 SuperCane.

P.S. Not that it matters, but the 6th picture in that series above looks VERY familar ..... from about a year ago. I remember the tree right by the sidewalk & the yard pushed up like that.

But I'm equally sure there are LOTS of trees beside sidewalks with roots under a front yard. So no big deal really.
Quoting MahFL:


No one cares about an EP fish storm.

Well, I do, you can't stop me from caring about an EPac fish storm.

TD 17E (expected to be Rosa)
I can see the blog is in chaos, but that doesn't surprise me, we haven't had a hurricane of this magnitude hit the United States since at least Hurricane Ike.

Here's the thing, everyone is trying to rationalize what happened with politics, religion, global warming. There is no rationality to this besides what we saw - Sandy intensified in the Caribbean due to warm TCHP, hit Cuba as a probable Major hurricane, weakened, and then fed off baroclinic forces that caused it to do what it did. It was blocked off by a high, and forced into the northeast, while loosing tropical characteristics as it made landfall in New Jersey. We knew this would happen, and it just sucks that it did. There is absolutely no other reason behind it.

All the parameters just came into place at the right time, and the right place. The same reason we all praise it when storms miss the United States by going south of us, or out to sea - timing. Timing was simply not on our side. We knew there would be eventually a storm like this, because that's just how timing works, it's chance. The question is going to be how are we going to recover. The National Hurricane Center did an excellent job at forecasting this hurricane.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





I wonder if whats left of the Bounty will wash ashore somewhere?


I never did understand why boats made out of wood sink.
Is the blog eating posts?
Man, Joe B. has been relentless of his criticism of the NHC for not issuing hurricane warnings and saying that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall. He needs to take a valium or something or else his veins are going to explode.
Quoting icmoore:


I am reminded of Charlie Brown's teacher here "blah, blah, blah, blah.....
Thank you for quoting me! People who hear only "blah blah blah" when there is talk of global climate change are amateurs when it comes to weather. The reality, while you have your hands over your ears, yelling, "blah blah blah" is that the devastating effects of global change are being experienced everyday, and if storms like Sandy and other unprecedented record-breaking climatic statistics don't convince you, then you don't want to know the truth, and your commitment to weather science is just an ego game and not a serious interest. While the world sinks under melting polar ice, your hands will still be over your ears saying, "blah blah blah".
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I knew this thing was going to hit the coast from the start, and you tell me I know nothing of weather science?

You are just a gullible fool who got sucked aboard Al Gore's AGW bandwagon.


Listen guys, and this goes to everyone... We need to drop the political and Global Warming debate crap ASAP. Too many other important situations are occurring right now and people are using this site for information. I mean no disrespect to anyone, but nothing constructive is being done debating these things right now.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
All of zone A and most of zones B and C were inundated with surge.


Great post. Very sad. But thank you for posting this map.
Quoting yonzabam:


I never did understand why boats made out of wood sink.


WHAT!?!
1562. ARiot
Quoting Jarhead6012:


So what caused OTHER climate change's then? What caused the start and end of the last ice age?

What caused the glacisers that created the great lakes to melt?

You want to know what causes global warming?
Hint....its that bright thing in the sky called the SUN.


"It's the sun" is the most widely discredited ruse of the AGW denier camp.

This is energy from human activity -- Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Read the science or look silly. It's up to you.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Is that Ground Zero?


Here is link to the SITE

They pretty much cover all major locations between Atlantic City and Bridgeport, CT. Probably a least 50 pictures already in. There is also a list of videos being uploaded at the bottom of the page.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I can see the blog is in chaos, but that doesn't surprise me, we haven't had a hurricane of this magnitude hit the United States since at least Hurricane Ike.

Here's the thing, everyone is trying to rationalize what happened with politics, religion, global warming. There is no rationality to this besides what we saw - Sandy intensified in the Caribbean due to warm TCHP, hit Cuba as a probable Major hurricane, weakened, and then was fed off baroclinic forces that caused it to do what it did. It was blocked off by a high, and forced into the northeast, while loosing tropical characteristics as it made landfall in New Jersey. We knew this would happen, and it just sucks that it did. There is absolutely no other reason behind it.

All the parameters just came into place at the right time, and the right place. The same reason we all praise it when storms miss the United States by going south of us, or out to sea - timing. Timing was simply not on our side. We knew there would be eventually a storm like this, because that's just how timing works, it's chance. The question is going to be how are we going to recover. The National Hurricane Center did an excellent job at forecasting this hurricane.


Thank you. While I think climate change is worthy of debate, I don't think this is the time nor the place for it. Why some have such a hard time understanding that, I don't know. I think Dr. Masters does post on it now and then and those blogs would be the place for that discussion. Not now while rescues are still ongoing.
Quoting MercForHire:


Heck no, why would you think that? This is a blog for discussion of which president caused Global Climate Change & which political party is most responsible for making Sandy a Cat-1 SuperCane.

The blog has changed too much. When I first came to this blog six years ago, most of us were talking about the tropics, not arguing about climate change.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Man, Joe B. has been relentless of his criticism of the NHC for not issuing hurricane warnings and saying that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall. He needs to take a valium or something or else his veins are going to explode.


A hurricane made landfall in the most heavily populated area of the country with no "Hurricane Warnings". I think he has a valid point.
This is NOT the time for recriminations, blame casting, name calling, airing views that will cause angst or political hostility.
There are millions of peoples' lives which have been dramatically and perhaps irreversibly affected by Sandy and more who will continue to be dramatically affected as the days pass. There are deaths and casualties (and sadly, there will be more), there are still people in danger, there are exhausted people putting themselves in harm's way to aid others as I write this - there are tired, anxious, ordinary folk just trying to come to terms with what has happened to their slice of the "American Dream" and how they will get "back on their feet" - there is a massive recovery effort that is only just commencing in many
regions.
It is neither, the time nor, the place to disarm or divert attention from the huge efforts now necessary for Assessment and Recovery. The world looked on in horror and amazement after Katrina and not just because of the devastation - but also because of the self-destructive and very public recriminations.
To add to it all - Hurricane Season is not even over!
My heart goes out to the kith and kin of those killed and injured by this storm and I wish strength, safety and success to those who now face a hard Recovery.
Quoting yonzabam:


I never did understand why boats made out of wood sink.


Might have something to do with metal fasteners and equipment..ie engines, ballast, and cargo. The Bounty did not sink out of sight, it is capsized and awash.
Please can we stop with the politics and AGW/CC talk.

Sandy and her effects are a culmination of 4 atmospheric occurrences.

1. A Monsoon low that developed into Hurricane Sandy
2. Blocking High in Northern Atlantic which stopped Sandy from going out to sea
3. The Cold Front.
4. High tide caused by Full moon.

If all these 4 things didn't come together the way they have, Sandy wouldn't of happened. There would of been no flooding in NYC, NJ, DE, MA. No nothing. So please stop the bickering and do what this blog does best, relay information and important information to some.

Also maybe people need to not come on here if they are in a bad mood or had a bad nights sleep or if your mommy took away your favorite play toy, or you have not had your 1st cuppa coffee. Please be civil at times like this.

Thanks
Rant over



Peak winds. NYC NWS

CONNECTICUT

...ANZ330...
2 S GROTON 76 300 PM 10/29 MESONET

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 76 549 PM 10/29 ASOS
GREENWICH 70 520 PM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORWALK 69 830 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
TRUMBULL 68 540 PM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
DANBURY AIRPORT 68 711 PM 10/29 ASOS

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
3 SW MIDDLETOWN 58 643 PM 10/29 MESONET

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
MADISON 85 520 PM 10/29 PUBLIC

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
GROTON AIRPORT 75 335 PM 10/29 ASOS
STONINGTON 70 300 PM 10/29 EMERGENCY MNGR

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
1 SSE TEANECK 76 731 PM 10/29 MESONET
TETERBORO 72 747 PM 10/29 ASOS
NORTH ARLINGTON 63 348 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
1 N MONTCLAIR 88 1020 PM 10/29 MESONET
NEWARK AIRPORT 78 751 PM 10/29 ASOS
FAIRFIELD 72 741 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 ESE FAIRFIELD 72 741 PM 10/29 MESONET
CALDWELL AIRPORT 70 614 PM 10/29 ASOS

...HUDSON COUNTY...
1 ENE BAYONNE 77 805 PM 10/29 MESONET

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
CLIFTON 80 930 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...ANZ338...
2 N TOMPKINSVILLE 90 824 PM 10/29 MESONET

...ANZ355...
BUOY 44065 69 514 PM 10/29 NY HARBOR APPROACH BUOY

...ANZ370...
30 S ROBERT MOSES ST 74 250 PM 10/29 MESONET
BUOY 44025 74 250 PM 10/29 BUOY

...KINGS COUNTY...
CONEY ISLAND 69 642 PM 10/29 MESONET
FLATBUSH 58 905 PM 10/29 MESONET

...NASSAU COUNTY...
SYOSSET 82 703 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
1 E POINT LOOKOUT 80 750 PM 10/29 JONES BEACH COAST GUARD
3 E LIDO BEACH 79 615 PM 10/29 MESONET
BAYVILLE 77 521 PM 10/29 MESONET
2 NNE GLEN COVE 77 521 PM 10/29 MESONET
OYSTER BAY 67 338 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 62 313 PM 10/29 ASOS

...ORANGE COUNTY...
ORANGE LAKE 61 745 PM 10/29 MESONET
MONTGOMERY 58 740 PM 10/29 ASOS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
2 SSE JACKSON HEIGHT 79 802 PM 10/29 MESONET
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 79 751 PM 10/29 ASOS
BREEZY POINT 78 830 PM 10/29 MESONET
NYC/LA GUARDIA 74 655 PM 10/29 ASOS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
EATONS NECK 96 655 PM 10/29 MESONET-ELEVATED 71FT
ISLIP AIRPORT 90 626 PM 10/29 78KT
4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 85 435 PM 10/29 MESONET
EAST MORICHES 81 600 PM 10/29 MESONET
EAST FARMINGDALE 79 723 PM 10/29 ASOS
UPTON 79 150 PM 10/29 MESONET
PATCHOGUE 77 701 PM 10/29 SPOTTER
FIRE ISLAND 75 435 PM 10/29 MESONET
POINT O`WOODS 73 350 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 ENE MONTAUK HIGHWA 73 220 PM 10/29 MESONET
2 WSW FISHERS ISLAND 71 300 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 S BLUE POINT 70 608 PM 10/29 MESONET
OCEAN BEACH 68 715 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 NW EAST HAMPTON 66 355 PM 10/29 MESONET

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
WHITE PLAINS 72 705 PM 10/29 ASOS


***********************SUSTAINED WIND***********************

LOCATION WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SPEED OF
MPH MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 59 504 PM 10/29 ASOS
DANBURY AIRPORT 40 856 PM 10/29 ASOS

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
GROTON AIRPORT 51 335 PM 10/29 ASOS

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
TETERBORO 45 759 PM 10/29 ASOS

NEW YORK

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 38 338 PM 10/29 ASOS

...ORANGE COUNTY...
MONTGOMERY 41 529 PM 10/29 ASOS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
NYC/LA GUARDIA 64 655 PM 10/29 ASOS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ISLIP AIRPORT 56 626 PM 10/29 ASOS
EAST FARMINGDALE 52 617 PM 10/29 ASOS

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
WHITE PLAINS 47 600 PM 10/29 ASOS
Quoting congaline:
Thank you for quoting me! People who hear only "blah blah blah" when there is talk of global climate change are amateurs when it comes to weather. The reality, while you have your hands over your ears, yelling, "blah blah blah" is that the devastating effects of global change are being experienced everyday, and if storms like Sandy and other unprecedented record-breaking climatic statistics don't convince you, then you don't want to know the truth, and your commitment to weather science is just an ego game and not a serious interest. While the world sinks under melting polar ice, your hands will still be over your ears saying, "blah blah blah".


I do have a question - the weather pattern that set up, meaning the steering flow that turned Sandy to the coast, was that a result of global warming. Not being sarcastic, just curious.
Quoting Kristina40:


Thank you. While I think climate change is worthy of debate, I don't think this is the time nor the place for it. Why some have such a hard time understanding that, I don't know. I think Dr. Masters does post on it now and then and those blogs would be the place for that discussion. Not now while rescues are still ongoing.

There is room on this blog for all the posts of Sandy related material, and more and more photos, experiences and information will be shared, and also for the discussion of the underlying science that makes monster storms like Sandy more frequent and more devastating.
Quoting Kristina40:


Thank you. While I think climate change is worthy of debate, I don't think this is the time nor the place for it. Why some have such a hard time understanding that, I don't know. I think Dr. Masters does post on it now and then and those blogs would be the place for that discussion. Not now while rescues are still ongoing.


He does when it's quiet. There's a time and a place, this maybe the place but it certainly ISN'T the time. At the moment, a flame war over global warming is just going to prevent this thread from being used as a source of news as we try to piece together the damage Sandy has done...
Horrible news, the Space shuttle got damaged pretty bad.
Link

Half the tail is missing! This hurts deeply to see being a Floridian and attended shuttle launches all my life.
.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


A hurricane made landfall in the most heavily populated area of the country with no "Hurricane Warnings".

Yep.
Here's what gets me: I just heard an official say people up there were in "utter disbelief"...yet they were told about this for days...very perplexing...and I have no clue what the answer is...
Northern New Jersey towns submerged after Sandy surge breaks levee
By NBC News staff and wire reports


A levee broke in northern New Jersey on Tuesday, flooding at least four towns with up to 6 feet of water in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, the National Weather Service said.
In a statement, the NWS said "portions" of Moonachie, Little Ferry, South Hackensack and Hackensack were submerged, with worse to come during Tuesday morning%u2019s high tide, expected at about 10 am.

"We are in rescue mode," said Jeanne Baratta, chief of the Bergen County Executive. There were no reports of fatalities as of yet, she told Reuters.
morning all

Here's a timelapse video of that intersection where the CNN reporter was in Atlantic City, NJ last night. It's before nightfall, so before high tide, but there were plenty of people still on the streets long after the only way off the island was blocked.

Link
A TS already:

EP, 17, 2012103012, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ROSA, M,
try post again...

Northern New Jersey towns submerged after Sandy surge breaks levee

By NBC News staff and wire reports

A levee broke in northern New Jersey on Tuesday, flooding at least four towns with up to 6 feet of water in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, the National Weather Service said.
In a statement, the NWS said "portions" of Moonachie, Little Ferry, South Hackensack and Hackensack were submerged, with worse to come during Tuesday morning’s high tide, expected at about 10am ET.

"We are in rescue mode," said Jeanne Baratta, chief of the Bergen County Executive. There were no reports of fatalities as of yet, she told Reuters.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I do have a question - the weather pattern that set up, meaning the steering flow that turned Sandy to the coast, was that a result of global warming. Not being sarcastic, just curious.
That huge blocking high over the Atlantic that kept Sandy from a full recurve and instead forced her over the Northeast is likely a partial byproduct of the extra energy absorbed by the Arctic sea this past summer, which was more exposed than it has been for many thousands of years due to the rapid disappearance of sea ice due to warming.
Quoting EastTexJake:
I didn't see what the Mayor said, but I did see what Gov. Cristie said. My take was that the Gov in an earlier address had told people basically to "Get out" if they lived near the coast. It wasn't an "official' evacuation order because I guess that was rightly the Mayors duty. But then after that the Mayor had encouraged people to "shelter in place" and not evacuate, which is a little more complicit than just not giving an evacuation order, as he'd given the people a false sense of security after the Gov had already told them to leave. That was what Christie was chastizing the Mayor over, from what I understood of the situation anyway, though I admit I didn't hear the Mayor's words.
I recall the "shelter in place" order being given in response to the roads used for evac. were no longer open,blocking any chance of escape?? Anyone else remember this post?
Quoting NoloContendere:
Everybody break out your tinfoil hats and flak jackets, the AGW and political loonies are out in force this morning. Seems like disasters bring them out like porch lights attract moths. Could we please just report/discuss the actual conditions and meteorology? The American people are generally quite resilient and people will be rescued and fed and we'll rebuild regardless of what political party is in power or what theories you have about climate. Thanks in advance.


I am AGW'ing my coffee as we speak!
1586. redux
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I can see the blog is in chaos, but that doesn't surprise me, we haven't had a hurricane of this magnitude hit the United States since at least Hurricane Ike.

Here's the thing, everyone is trying to rationalize what happened with politics, religion, global warming. There is no rationality to this besides what we saw - Sandy intensified in the Caribbean due to warm TCHP, hit Cuba as a probable Major hurricane, weakened, and then fed off baroclinic forces that caused it to do what it did. It was blocked off by a high, and forced into the northeast, while loosing tropical characteristics as it made landfall in New Jersey. We knew this would happen, and it just sucks that it did. There is absolutely no other reason behind it.

All the parameters just came into place at the right time, and the right place. The same reason we all praise it when storms miss the United States by going south of us, or out to sea - timing. Timing was simply not on our side. We knew there would be eventually a storm like this, because that's just how timing works, it's chance. The question is going to be how are we going to recover. The National Hurricane Center did an excellent job at forecasting this hurricane.


i think it is dishonest to suggest that the blocking high set up where it did by a fluke.

i think it is very plausible that low sea ice in kara/barentz sea and also beaufort set up lows that were stable in place, and the result was high pressure building where it did.

it also is dumping lots of snow and cold over siberia, with the source of the low coming from the heat anomaly in kara/barents.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


A hurricane made landfall in the most heavily populated area of the country with no "Hurricane Warnings".


it was a post tropical cyclone

which now has become an early season snowstorm for some
Quoting yonzabam:


I never did understand why boats made out of wood sink.
Ballast placed in the bottom of the boat to stabilize it.
FemaRegion2 ‏@femaregion2
THANK YOU to the 1st responders -police/fire/EMS/hospital staff- working tirelessly to meet urgent needs of #Sandy survivors!
Anyone have the links for the surge graphs at the Battery and others? The highest tide of the month is coming in now and NYC is still having a strong SSW fetch of the Atlantic. Water should rise again, though not as high, it will still hamper and delay rescue efforts even more.
Wow. A major cane hits th US and all the blag can talk about is politics and GW. Sad and pathetic. Good thing worried individuals aren't coming here for information.

Mods DO YOUR JOBS and keep the blog on topic.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



What a load of crock.


I am very happy congaline stepped up and summarized what needs to be said about global climate change. Those who are deniers will be denying any link to human activities right up to the point their little toes are dancing in sea water 10 miles away from the present high water line. I have given up trying to convince them since nature will do that for me in time, however those of us with genuine concerns should refuse to be shouted down by their aggressive, bellicose responses. I seem to remember something about free speech.
Quoting rwdobson:


So your argument appears to be, because there has been natural climate change in the past,it is impossible that humans could cause climate change.

Why do you assume that the two are mutually exclusive? Do you seriously think its impossible to have both natural factors and human-induced factors? I've never understood this argument. No one is saying that human ghg emissions are the only factor affecting our climate. But it's incredibly naive to think we are having no effect on the climate.


To think we CAUSED it is giving us too much credit. Are we possibly CONTRIBUTING to it, yes. There are those that say we are CAUSING it and that is what I have issue with.
We have Rosa in the EPAC now.
Quoting presslord:
Here's what gets me: I just heard an official say people up there were in "utter disbelief"...yet they were told about this for days...very perplexing...and I have no clue what the answer is...


its call denial not accepting that which has been foretold to them
Quoting Jarhead6012:


So what caused OTHER climate change's then? What caused the start and end of the last ice age?

What caused the glacisers that created the great lakes to melt?

You want to know what causes global warming?
Hint....its that bright thing in the sky called the SUN.


I don't want to clutter up the blog topic - but you may want to google "Milankovitch cycle".
Quoting Neapolitan:
That huge blocking high over the Atlantic that kept Sandy from a full recurve and instead forced her over the Northeast is likely a partial byproduct of the extra energy absorbed by the Arctic sea this past summer, which was more exposed than it has been for many thousands of years due to the rapid disappearance of sea ice due to warming.

And we've been observing these pattern for thousands of years with the forecasting ability why have today....
Quoting yonzabam:



So, because previous changes to global climate were natural, the current warming must also be natural?

Even a child could see the logical fallacy of that.


I just LOVE people that throw out the phrase "logical fallacy".

To me that means they have nothing to really say, so they throw that out in the attempt to stop debate.

Please show me the data that shows we are CAUSING the latest round of a NATURAL cycle. Not that we are possibly contributing to it but CAUSING it.

There is no data out there that proves that we are CAUSING it. There is data out there that suggests that we are CONTRIBUTING to it tho.
Quoting presslord:
Here's what gets me: I just heard an official say people up there were in "utter disbelief"...yet they were told about this for days...very perplexing...and I have no clue what the answer is...


To be told something terrible is going to happen to you...and to experience it...are two different animals.

There are many of us on this blog, including myself, who can relate to this.
1600. LargoFl
Quoting presslord:
Here's what gets me: I just heard an official say people up there were in "utter disbelief"...yet they were told about this for days...very perplexing...and I have no clue what the answer is...
well i kinda think, those folks up there have had these bad storms come up the coast over the years, yes they got some rain, some bad winds..but, they always kept going north, THIS time, they got caught with a land falling Monster sized Cat-1 Hurricane who was close to being a Cat-2 at times..they have never experienced that..and I think, totally unprepared..the average citizen i mean..this as bad as it is..a learning lesson..even for us down here..when they say a HURRICANE is coming..prepare for the worst..and your ready...i think they now have learned that lesson over Many Many states up there..
1508 Jarhead6012: So what caused OTHER climate changes then?

Orbital forcing and incomprehensibly HUGE volcanic eruptions that spewed out incomprehensibly HUGE amounts of dust, sulphur, and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. And possibly-to-probably, an asteroid/comet strike or few.
Yep, humans are now causing climate change in a couple or so centuries on the scale that once took either geological ages (orbital forcing) or ExtinctionEvent cataclysms to achieve.
1586. That's complete honest. We've all seen the high has been blocking storms recurving all year, take TS Beryl for example. That got pushed into Florida because of high pressure. Then take Hurricane Isaac as another one, high pressure and timing sent Isaac into an unusual path in the Gulf, straight NW. It has been dominate all year, it's called the synoptic pattern.
[Update 6:22 a.m. ET] The New York power situation from the governor's office:

Andrew Cuomo

@NYGovCuomo
#NYS POWER #OUTAGE report 6am: 1,943,572 NYers wout power from #Sandy
30 Oct 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite
[Update 6:16 a.m. ET] Ralph Verdi, chief of police in Little Ferry, New Jersey, says four to six feet of water is covering 75% of the town.

“It’s been an extremely difficult night … We’re doing the best we can.

“Our town’s in real trouble right now,” he told CNN's "Starting Point" with Soledad O'Brien.
Is there no moderator with the nuts to block the users who continue to abuse the blog with repeated off-topic posts that abuse the blog and frustrate the readers who're trying to get info on the subject matter? BTW, in case we've forgotten the subject is Sandy!
Quoting luvtogolf:
So I see that we are blaming ourselves for Sandy being a very large storm. I'm just trying to figure out I was able to create a negatively tilted trough and a blocking high that foreced Sandy to the coast.


I caught a few minutes of Coast to Coast this morning and this guy was on there saying it was because of HAARP. I had to turn it off, was laughing too hard and was driving in snow so I had to pay attention.
1606. Kumo
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I see the blog is in utter chaos...sigh


Aye. Political discussion is never a good idea especially around election time when both sides are ready to rip each others throats out. Let's keep the discussion to the tropics and climate please.
Perhaps we would be better served if the blog focuses on the damage to people's lives, finds reports/pictures of the effected area to post, and lays off the political/gw conversations.

I'm sure there are many people who are following the blog on their phones who would like to see some real information.

this group of people have always been good about pulling together, today would be a good day to show that.
1609. ncstorm
American Red Cross ‏@RedCross

We're able to respond w/your help. Txt REDCROSS to 90999 ( $10 donation) or visit http://redcross.org http://via.me/-6grc65q


Enterprise spends not even a year in NYC and it first gets its wing smashed in, then its tail ripped off.
Now that Sandy is done and over, what is the next big disaster?! Any more storms scheduled to brew? :)
More from nj.com, raw video of a night-time rescue of residents in Manasquan, NJ, a coastal town (but not an evacuated barrier island) Link

Lots of focus on NYC on CNN this morning, but New Jersey took the brunt of this storm!
Quoting Waltanater:
Now that Sandy is done and over, what is the next big disaster?! Any more storms scheduled to brew? :)


Hurricane season is over.

Its proboly going to be blizzards from here on out.
Quoting Waltanater:
Now that Sandy is done and over, what is the next big disaster?! Any more storms scheduled to brew? :)
Sandy- or whatever is left of her -- is not done yet
Quoting mehmattski:
Mor from nj.com, raw video of a night-time rescue of residents in Manasquan, NJ, a coastal town (but not an evacuated barrier island) Link

Lots of focus on NYC on CNN this morning, but New Jersey took the brunt of this storm!


The today show has had many reports from the Jersey Coast this morning.
Quoting zoomiami:
Perhaps we would be better served if the blog focuses on the damage to people's lives, finds reports/pictures of the effected area to post, and lays off the political/gw conversations.

I'm sure there are many people who are following the blog on their phones who would like to see some real information.

this group of people have always been good about pulling together, today would be a good day to show that.


Give that woman a round of applause!!! Can I buy you a drink?
To all my friends in the NE, I sincerely apologize for in any way that I help contribute to the steering pattern that caused the trough to become negatively tilted and the high to set up to your NE that steered Sandy into your coast.
Quoting mehmattski:
More from nj.com, raw video of a night-time rescue of residents in Manasquan, NJ, a coastal town (but not an evacuated barrier island) Link

Lots of focus on NYC on CNN this morning, but New Jersey took the brunt of this storm!


Thats also why its important that the people on the blog bring out the reports of the smaller areas, who suffered a lot of damage.

Unfortunately the media is going to cover the larger stories.
Quoting congaline:
We use it because we have not been offered a choice. The technology to reduce our dependence on oil is there. Do you know the amount of money spent by oil lobbyists to defeat any funding of research and development of renewable energies? Billions baby! To hear weather bloggers promoting the status quo, tells me one thing, you know NOTHING about real weather science.


you have a choice, you can install your own solar or wind and go off of the grid.
Wow billions huh, you DO know that oil alone is used for more than just fuel. It is used in plastics production, you know those things they use in Hospitals to the computer your posting on, to the tires on your vehicle or bike. Oil us used for a LOT more than just gas/energy production.

Do you want a windfarm near your community? What about the birds that are killed by the windmills? What will you do when the wind is not strong enough to generate power?
Quoting presslord:


Give that woman a round of applause!!! Can I buy you a drink?


Certainly!

How is Portlight doing today? Have you identified where you are going?
@ 0:28 mark is when things really get going, about 4 different trees fall within 20 seconds.

1622. redux
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1586. That's complete honest. We've all seen the high has been blocking storms recurving all year, take TS Beryl for example. That got pushed into Florida because of high pressure. Then take Hurricane Isaac as another one, high pressure and timing sent Isaac into an unusual path in the Gulf, straight NW. It has been dominate all year, it's called the synoptic pattern.


i dont buy it. the fact is, the pseudo stationary low pressure area over barents/kara makes sense and did offer predictive ability--

high pressure over greenland( strong negative NAO, AO), and record early snow in siberia.

compare 2002 to 2012 even with the arctic sea ice area. the difference in the kara/barentz region is STUNNING.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Hurricane season is over.

Its proboly going to be blizzards from here on out.
Cool! No pun intended.
Quoting Jarhead6012:


yet you are posting on the internet with a computer that was made out of oil.


Plastic in my laptop: about 100g. Enough oil to drive your average passenger vehicle about 1km.

using electricity that is provided by either coal, natural gas, or nuclear plants.

Most refineries are roughly break-even in terms of electricity production/consumption (products that they don't want to or can't use are burned, usually for power unless they have more than their generators can take, wherein they flare them)

Probably driving a car that uses gas.

Plug-in hybrid. Next one will be all electric. Oh, and my electricity is geothermal.

Your home is heated by either electric or natural gas

Nope, geothermal hot water left over from said geothermal electricity production. And yes, while geothermal is easier and cheaper here than in most places, it can be done anywhere; that's what EGS is for - hot dry rock which exists under everyone's feet. All that changes is the per-kWh rate.

your home uses electricty.

The aforementioned geothermal.

This is what gets me about people that preach about using too much oil or coal, you use it EVERY DAY.

This is what gets me about people who support the use of oil and coal, you act like it's impossible to live without, when the reality is that we humans have been burning them through a very insignificant portion of our history, and if our history shows anything it's that what resources we tend to consume changes over time. Ultimately, a technological society is about "energy". It is indifferent to what kind. It needs not be from coal or oil any more than lighting needs to be from kerosene, paraffin, whale oil, tallow, or campfires.

The point of your post was to argue that people who seek to hasten the shift to the next sources of energy are absurd because they're currently using coal and oil. Even a child can see the gaping hole in that logic. "My dear Henry! I have seen your thesis beseeching that it has come time to switch to other sources of lighting, yet you wrote it in your darkened study by the light of a whale-oil lantern. You sir are but a hypocrite!"
Quoting southfla:
Sandy- or whatever is left of her -- is not done yet
Cool.
1626. guygee
Quoting ExumaMET:
Is there no moderator with the nuts to block the users who continue to abuse the blog with repeated off-topic posts that abuse the blog and frustrate the readers who're trying to get info on the subject matter? BTW, in case we've forgotten the subject is Sandy!
The discussion part of this blog is a society of people, some new, some have been here for years. They may not always think or act as you wish they would. Without the people there is no discussion. Take what you can get, and try to post more and direct the discussion towards the topics you want to talk about.
Just a hopefully helpful suggestion...
i notice the internet is faster today new yorkers arent on it?
Quoting zoomiami:


Certainly!

How is Portlight doing today? Have you identified where you are going?


it'll be NJ...and thee focus will be on seniors and people with disabilities...working with some folks now to nail down the need...thanks for asking...
season not over the the carib
On a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 being the worst and 10 being the best, how would you rate Sandy overall? Use whatever reasoning you would like (destructiveness, hype, track, awesomeness, etc.)

I give it an 8 or 9.
please stop

there will be lots of blogs
to fight over who's wrong and right
later in the winter
I'm really sure Valerie is in it's begining stage. The Caribean will reload very soon ! No time to recover ->


For those that accuse me of just "Preaching".

I didn't want to clog up the blog with personal comments this horrible morning but after repeated attacks, this is my last word on the subject.

My computer is partially made from plastic, oil that didn't go into the atmosphere. Most of the electricity used at this residence is slightly more expensive "green electricity" from renewable sources purchased through an agreement with the utility. The rest of the electricity used here comes from a solar panel I assembled. My car is a Geo Metro that gets over 42 mpg and I use it sparingly. My home is heated with wood and has been for almost 30 years. I sometimes even cook on the wood heater. Wood is biological carbon, oil, gas, and coal are fossilized carbon.

I still have a long way to go but be careful of your generalizations.

Have a good day and keep your eye on the future. Most of you will be in it a lot longer than this old guy.
Quoting jcpoulard:
I'm really sure Valerie is in it's begining stage. The Caribean will reload very soon ! No time to recover ->




Are you sure?
1636. guygee
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Enterprise spends not even a year in NYC and it first gets its wing smashed in, then its tail ripped off.
I can remember three of the very early Mercury-era rockets standing as monuments in front of Patrick AFB on A1A. It is typical in the military to rotate commanders every couple of years, and when one of those monuments got knocked over in a storm the commander at the base had all three removed. He had no connection to the local area and no idea the pride that people took in that part of the local heritage, but too bad they are gone forever now.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Where is this video from? Scary
Quoting Neapolitan:
That huge blocking high over the Atlantic that kept Sandy from a full recurve and instead forced her over the Northeast is likely a partial byproduct of the extra energy absorbed by the Arctic sea this past summer, which was more exposed than it has been for many thousands of years due to the rapid disappearance of sea ice due to warming.


I hear what you are saying. But what about all of the storms that curved and went out to sea? Where was the blocking hight then? Is it about climate change or timing. Again, not being sarcastic (there is a lot of it here) but wanting to know.
Quoting islander101010:
season not over the the carib

Season not over anywhere in the W Atlantic and Caribbean!
Quoting presslord:


it'll be NJ...and thee focus will be on seniors and people with disabilities...working with some folks now to nail down the need...thanks for asking...
Press, link to Portlight for donations, please
Quoting southfla:
Press, link to Portlight for donations, please
Link

Thanks!
At the moment, there seem to be more comments complaining that weather isn't being discussed than there are comments actually discussing the weather. ;-)

Allow me to repeat something I wrote this morning:

GW is indeed part of the current blog topic, and political comments are allowed so long as they're civil, fact-based, and are made in reference to "science, science policy, or the blog topic".

Now that the worst of Sandy has passed, we're left with two questions: 1) How well will the response to Sandy go? And 2) how do we prevent a repeat of such an event? The answer to the first question is obviously political, and the answer to the second can't be honestly discussed without mentioning both politics and climate science. And with a major election just one week away--an election that's certain to be impacted in numerous ways by Sandy, and whose outcome is certain to impact future Sandy-like events--it's probably not possible to honestly discuss the storm without overlapping into politics, policy and science.

(It's understandable that some may not wish to see such comments; if so, they should just politely ignore them and move on rather than endlessly chastise others for posting them. As congaline noted, this forum is big enough for all types of Sandy-related comments.)
1643. LargoFl
Quoting Waltanater:
On a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 being the worst and 10 being the best, how would you rate Sandy overall? Use whatever reasoning you would like (destructiveness, hype, track, awesomeness, etc.)

I give it an 8 or 9.
yes an 8 is just about right, the sheer size of it maybe other hurricanes pale in comparison..never saw a storm that HUGE, charley also was a huge one but sandy beat him
1644. icmoore
.<>a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">


Surprise Jose after Irene impact...that comes to mind.

Hi guys...Im here posting from upstate MA...I was ordered to evacuate...the police literally came knocking on my door. So I called my uncle who lives in upstate Massachusetts to go and spend the time there. Nothing happened here but back at my house I was told that "many trees fell on the roads" and power was completely out in my area. A nearby town is in a complete blackout. Coastal areas of Norwalk and Westport...specially the Vets Park and the Saugatuck area are very flooded well inland. Does anyone live around these areas to correct this...it might have changed since earlier this morning.
I'll be living here (It's a nice place by the way...no leafs anywhere) I;ll be here for a month or two...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Surprise Jose after Irene impact...that comes to mind.

Hi guys...Im here posting from upstate MA...I was ordered to evacuate...the police literally came knocking on my door. So I called my uncle who lives in upstate Massachusetts to go and spend the time there. Nothing happened here but back at my house I was told that "many trees fell on the roads" and power was completely out in my area. A nearby town is in a complete blackout. Coastal areas of Norwalk and Westport...specially the Vets Park and the Saugatuck area are very flooded well inland. Does anyone live around these areas to correct this...it might have changed since earlier this morning.
I'll be living here (It's a nice place by the way...no leafs anywhere) I;ll be here for a month or two...


Thanks for the reports, sorry about your area. glad they asked you to evacuate.
1648. LargoFl
my post here is for the northeast posters and states..I read an article some time ago, that with the subtle changes in climate the earth is going thru, starting at about 2020 or so, the warm gulfstream which now ends about NC, is going to be moving more northward in years to come..folks in the northeast need to start learning the lesson gave by sandy this week, and start taking these storms as we do here along the gulf coast..very seriously..when they say Hurricane...you now know whats coming, and hopefully in the years to come..you'll be better prepared to handle it..prayers for all who are suffering now up there..
Quoting zoomiami:


Thanks for the reports, sorry about your area. glad they asked you to evacuate.


right...If the police never had come..I don't even want to think how I'll be
From QZ.com, a few numbers to know:

50 million — Number of people in the region affected by the storm.

13,500 — Number of flights around the US and the world that were cancelled for Monday and Tuesday.

25 — The percentage of US flights that travel to or from New York airports each day. Airports in the New York metro area were open Tuesday, but carriers are not operating and officials are telling would-be travelers not to attempt to go to the airport.

13 — The size of the surge of seawater into New York City, in feet. (Nearly four meters.) That topped the previous record, flooding subways and tunnels.

6.2 million — Estimated number of households without power across the east coast.

670,000 — Number without power in and around New York City.

17 — The number of US deaths blamed on the storm early Tuesday.

69 — Number of Sandy-related deaths in the Caribbean so far.

74 — Number of flights of stairs inspectors need to climb to check out the crane dangling from a luxury residential construction project in midtown Manhattan.

2 — The number of days in a row the New York Stock Exchange has been closed for weather, the most since the blizzard of 1888.
Nick Hurst ‏@ALStormChaser
Interesting Note: Sandy is currently covering approximately 1.8 million square miles! The entire US is 3.79 million square miles!
For me and for many this was nearly or total DOOM
I never though the impacts were going to de so devastating to the point of extreme destruction.


Quoting clwstmchasr:


I hear what you are saying. But what about all of the storms that curved and went out to sea? Where was the blocking hight then? Is it about climate change or timing. Again, not being sarcastic (there is a lot of it here) but wanting to know.

Climate is a culmination of weather events over 30 years or more. It's silly to proclaim we "caused" Sandy. We more likely could have contributed it her.

With this particular storm, Sandy, this was much more about timing.

--Perfect Storm Track to funnel water up the Long Island Sound and Lower Bay bring record surges at the Battery, Sandy Hook (no pun intended), and other locations.

--Perfect timing in regards to monthly moon cycles.

--Perfect timing in regards to daily high tide

--Perfect landfall location funneling massive amounts of water into NYC

--Perfect east fetch of high wind followed by an ensuing southeast fetch that followed close after

--Perfect atmospheric setup with a blocking high at the right place coupled with a negatively tilted trough to reel Sandy in.

--Perfect time that Sandy transitioned to extratropical after strengenthing and deepening to 90MPH right before. The transition right up at landfall allowed for the convection to collapse, the wind field to expand, and for the strong gusts at the upper levels to be mixed down to the surface to produce the strong gusts that aided the already existing massive surge.

--Perfect storm size for this kind of surge. Sandy is the second largest Atlantic Cyclone and will go down in history with flooding from the storm surge. Any coincidence? I don't think so.

--Perfect timing that it occurred not only on a weekday in the busiest financial city in the World, but also because occurring on Monday it will likely shut the city down for the remainder of the week.

--The other thing that could have been worse is maybe she occurred next week and had a bigger impact on the elections.

Other than this, I have a hard time connecting the dots to climate (which is a culmination of weather events of 30 years or more), but finding a much easier time saying this truly was the perfect storm....and timely was a HUGE REASON why.
Quoting zoomiami:


Where is this video from? Scary


I think New Jersey area somewhere not for sure. Its sourced from CNN


Sandy slung Arctic down here in FL.. it's so cold.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Enterprise spends not even a year in NYC and it first gets its wing smashed in, then its tail ripped off.


That's sad..

This Friday Atlantis is being moved over to the Visitor Complex at KSC..a little to our horror it's being referred to as "The Atlantis Rollover".. anyway won passes for this one too. I should bring back pics.
1658. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:
Nick Hurst ‏@ALStormChaser
Interesting Note: Sandy is currently covering approximately 1.8 million square miles! The entire US is 3.79 million square miles!


you do the math... 1.8/3.79=

Sandy covers 45.49% of the lower 48..!!!
nearly HALF of the whole CONUS!
1660. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
531 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016> 018-501-502-
VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053 -055-501>506-
301600-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORA NGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE ...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...
WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS. ..
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY. ..MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
531 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT...

...SANDY CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION BUT HEAVIEST RAINS AND
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PAST...

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREAS, INCLUDING THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER, MARYLAND FROM THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO GARRETT COUNTY, NORTHERN VIRGINIA,
AND EXTREME EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS STATEMENT IS
TO PROVIDE A SINGLE PRODUCT THAT INTEGRATES THE WARNING PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

SANDY LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE RELEASED EVERY 6 HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE FOLLOWING RELEASE TIMES: 11 PM...5 AM...
11 AM...AND 5 PM. IF CONDITIONS WARRANT...SPECIAL STATEMENTS WILL
BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY.

MOST CRITICAL INFORMATION
-------------------------
* THE MOST SEVERE PORTION OF SANDY HAS PAST.
* WINDS AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
* PEOPLE ALONG THE BAY SHORE ANNAPOLIS AND NORTH SHOULD MONITOR TIDAL
LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE RISING TODAY WITH STORM SURGE.
* RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER FROM HARPERS
FERRY DOWNSTREAM TO AND INCLUDING WASHINGTON DC SHOULD PREPARE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AS THE CREST SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY
DOWNSTREAM TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUMMARY OF THREATS
------------------
* FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES IN MANY AREAS.
* THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED...AND THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL WIND
IMPACTS HAVE PAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.
* MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON SMALLER WATERSHEDS...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE MAIN-STEM POTOMAC AND
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SHENANDOAH AT MILLVILLE.
* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE 18 TO 24 INCHES STORM TOTAL IS
EXPECTED.

WIND OBSERVATIONS WITH STORM
----------------------------
* 71 MPH WIND GUST AT BISHOPS HEAD MARYLAND AT 543 PM.
* 74 MPH WIND GUST AT POINT LOOKOUT MARYLAND AT 620 PM.
* 76 MPH WIND GUST AT LAYTONSVILLE MARYLAND AT 9:13 PM.
* 60 MPH WIND GUST AT ORIOLE PARK IN BALTIMORE MARYLAND AT 500 PM.
* 58 MPH WIND GUST AT PATUXENT RIVER NAVAL AIR STATION AT 638 PM.
* 79 MPH WIND GUST AT THOMAS POINT LIGHT ON THE BAY AT 9:00 PM.
* 60 MPH WIND GUST AT REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT AT 951 PM.
* 60 MPH WIND GUST AT MARSHALL BWI AIRPORT AT 1023 PM.
* 63 MPH WIND GUST AT FORT BELVOIR VIRGINIA AT 9:29 PM.
* 60 MPH WIND GUST AT MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA AT 8:33 PM.

HIGH WINDS
----------
* WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY...GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 50 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL AND FLOODING
---------------------
* STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH SMALL AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING PARTS OF THE REGION AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
* STEADY RAIN WILL BREAK UP INTO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING
------------------------
* THE POTOMAC RIVER BELOW HARPERS FERRY WILL LIKELY START FLOODING
LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* MANY RIVERS FEEDING THE MAIN-STEM POTOMAC RIVER ARE ALREADY ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE FLOODING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
* FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE POTOMAC BETWEEN HARPERS FERRY AND
WASHINGTON DC. THE CURRENT FORECAST HEIGHT FOR THE CREST IS NOT AS
HIGH AS THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODERATE TO NEAR MAJOR
FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS.
* CONSULT OUR RIVER WEBPAGE AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV FOR SPECIFIC POINT
FORECASTS ALONG THE RIVER.

COASTAL FLOODING
----------------
* WITH THE FULL MOON...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ALREADY HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
* NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY CAUSED LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY.
* TODAY...AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY...A SURGE IS MOVING INTO THE BAY AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. STORM SURGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IS FORECAST...WITH THE
HIGHER LEVELS AROUND 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE AT AND NORTH OF ANNAPOLIS
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
* THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY WILL BE THE HIGHEST TIDAL LEVELS OF THE STORM.
* THESE LEVELS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR CHANGES AND UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

SNOWFALL
--------
* IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ABOVE 2000 FEET HEAVY WET SNOW IS OCCURRING.
* THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND CAUSE ACCIDENTS BLOCKING MOUNTAIN ROADS.
* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW.
* THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 18 TO
24 INCHES BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* BE WARY IF YOU NEED TO TRAVEL THIS MORNING AS DOWNED TREES AND
FLOODED ROADS WILL BE AMONG YOUR THREATS.
* INSPECT TREES AROUND YOUR PROPERTY FOR DANGLING LARGE LIMBS THAT
MAY HAVE BEEN DAMAGED DURING THE STORM.
* IF POWER LINES ARE DOWN...STAY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL ELECTRICAL UTILITY COMPANY.
* IF YOU COME UPON FLOODED ROADWAYS DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SUBMERGED
ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.
* IF YOU USE A PORTABLE POWER GENERATOR...PLEASE FOLLOW
MANUFACTURERS INSTRUCTIONS AND ENSURE THAT IT IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED.
* DO NOT USE CHARCOAL GRILLS IN ENCLOSED AREAS.
* MARINERS SHOULD BE READY FOR RISING TIDES ON TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 AM EDT
TODAY.

$$

STRONG
1662. redux
Quoting LargoFl:
my post here is for the northeast posters and states..I read an article some time ago, that with the subtle changes in climate the earth is going thru, starting at about 2020 or so, the warm gulfstream which now ends about NC, is going to be moving more northward in years to come..folks in the northeast need to start learning the lesson gave by sandy this week, and start taking these storms as we do here along the gulf coast..very seriously..when they say Hurricane...you now know whats coming, and hopefully in the years to come..you'll be better prepared to handle it..prayers for all who are suffering now up there..


i agree with your sentiments. i was personally disgusted by how many didn't evacuate, and then had a cavalier attitude about being rescued like they weren't totally humiliated.

but then again, there were a lot of people who stayed around in Katrina and Ike.

this is the first storm i know of that tracked the way it went, so there isn't a lot of precedent to compare it to. perhaps its explainable in a boy who cried wolf analogy?
1663. hydrus
LGA

Port Authority officials told the FAA on Sunday that a 4 foot storm surge would be enough to put LaGuardia’s runways underwater. The current forecast calls for a 6 to 11 ft storm surge, and water has already begun rising onto airport grounds.



As expected, the waters of Jamaica Bay have begun washing up onto JFK’s shores, with water encroaching on runways and taxiways.
Quoting Neapolitan:
From QZ.com, a few numbers to know:
13 — The size of the surge of seawater into New York City, in feet. (Nearly four meters.) That topped the previous record, flooding subways and tunnels.


Storm surge was actually around 9.0-9.5ft at Battery Park gauge and 11.5-12.5ft at Kings Point gauge. Kings Point max surge actually occurred prior to the maximum total water level due to the phasing of the surge and with lower astronimical tide levels.
--Between 80 and 100 houses destroyed by fire in a flooded neighborhood in the New York City borough of Queens. (Source)

--Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's Hurricane Irene. (Source)
Hurricane / Hybrid storm Sandy came ashore Monday evening and brought lots of wind, rain, and storm surge along with it. The featured map is a simple analysis of peak wind speeds reported on Monday. The big caveat with maps like this during big storms is that stations are often knocked offline during the highest impact weather and will miss reporting the highest wind speeds. The highest reported wind speeds were in the 60 to 100 mph range for most of the eastern coast from Virginia to Maine.

Wow;

Nick Hurst ‏@ALStormChaser
Interesting Note: Sandy is currently covering approximately 1.8 million square miles! The entire US is 3.79 million square miles!

That's half the dang country..49.9 % (conus)

Thanks Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Wow;

Nick Hurst ‏@ALStormChaser
Interesting Note: Sandy is currently covering approximately 1.8 million square miles! The entire US is 3.79 million square miles!

That's half the dang country..49.9 % (conus)

Thanks Aussie!


it's actually 47.49..nearly 50%..I was wrong when i posted it here too
Update from Mayor Boomberg in 8 minutes. Per CNN.
Nick Hurst ‏@ALStormChaser
Hurricane Sandy losses are estimated at $45 billion. Story: http://abcn.ws/SZbYVA via @ABC

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad
Morning snowfall so far at Mt Leconte 17" & Newfound Gap 18" in the Smoky Mountains from the Park Service. #tnwx #wncwx
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you do the math... 1.8/3.79=

Sandy covers 45.49% of the lower 48..!!!
nearly HALF of the whole CONUS!


By what definition is Sandy covering 1.8 million sq miles?
Something about the math is setting off skepticism alarms in my head.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif
1674. ncstorm
Quoting redux:


i agree with your sentiments. i was personally disgusted by how many didn't evacuate, and then had a cavalier attitude about being rescued like they weren't totally humiliated.

but then again, there were a lot of people who stayed around in Katrina and Ike.

this is the first storm i know of that tracked the way it went, so there isn't a lot of precedent to compare it to. perhaps its explainable in a boy who cried wolf analogy?


People dont evacuate in the south either and we are more vulnerable to hurricanes more than them..again, we dont know people's situation in why they choose to stay which is all irrevelant right now due to people hurting and needing help..
Quoting Neapolitan:
--Between 80 and 100 houses destroyed by fire in a flooded neighborhood in the New York City borough of Queens. (Source)

--Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's Hurricane Irene. (Source)


Doing some simple math here based on that report, they're thinking the early maximum damage to the NE is 30 billion, and the minimum is 15 billion. May be higher than that even.
1676. ncstorm
HurricaneTrack.com
I am in New Brunswick, NJ this morning but will be heading back down to the coast in a little while to recover (hopefully) the equipment that I placed out yesterday to monitor Sandy. I will stream all day, as long as the network is capable of anyway, on our Ustream channel. I'll post a link to it once I go live. This will give you a look at conditions across the northern part of NJ from Hwy 18, to the GSP and finally in the Long Branch and possibly Belmar areas, depending on where I can get to.
1677. redux
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Climate is a culmination of weather events over 30 years or more. It's silly to proclaim we "caused" Sandy. We more likely could have contributed it her.

With this particular storm, Sandy, this was much more about timing.

--Perfect Storm Track to funnel water up the Long Island Sound and Lower Bay bring record surges at the Battery, Sandy Hook (no pun intended), and other locations.

--Perfect timing in regards to monthly moon cycles.

--Perfect timing in regards to daily high tide

--Perfect landfall location funneling massive amounts of water into NYC

--Perfect east fetch of high wind followed by an ensuing southeast fetch that followed close after

--Perfect atmospheric setup with a blocking high at the right place coupled with a negatively tilted trough to reel Sandy in.

--Perfect time that Sandy transitioned to extratropical after strengenthing and deepening to 90MPH right before. The transition right up at landfall allowed for the convection to collapse, the wind field to expand, and for the strong gusts at the upper levels to be mixed down to the surface to produce the strong gusts that aided the already existing massive surge.

--Perfect storm size for this kind of surge. Sandy is the second largest Atlantic Cyclone and will go down in history with flooding from the storm surge. Any coincidence? I don't think so.

--Perfect timing that it occurred not only on a weekday in the busiest financial city in the World, but also because occurring on Monday it will likely shut the city down for the remainder of the week.

--The other thing that could have been worse is maybe she occurred next week and had a bigger impact on the elections.

Other than this, I have a hard time connecting the dots to climate (which is a culmination of weather events of 30 years or more), but finding a much easier time saying this truly was the perfect storm....and timely was a HUGE REASON why.


i do agree that there were many ingredients that it took to make this storm what it was.

but i would caution that many of the things could it be related. would it be outrageous to suggest that a negatively tilted trough, a blocking high, and a strong negative NAO could be related?

now i do agree that its just one storm, and you can't draw meaningful conclusions from it. but the changes in the arctic are so rapid that you have to invent your own parachute on the way down from the plane.

the fact is, that until the idea that arctic sea ice loss and quasi stationary arctic lows can be shown to be insignificant, it is definitely a hypothesis that is worth testing because it does offer predictive value.

Sandy's damage total should exceed $ 50 billion. Typically that would be well more than more enough for retirement of the name. However, the problem I see with that is the fact that the storm made landfall as a post tropical cyclone.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doing some simple math here based on that report, they're thinking the early maximum damage to the NE is 30 billion, and the minimum is 15 billion. May be higher than that even.

Didn't Dr. Masters have a blog that quoted someone who said the damage could be 55 billion to the subway system alone. Salt water got in there and likely corroded the electric system but will it be up and running again later this week? Or longer?
Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad
Snow totals so far...Beech Mtn 8", Boone 5.5", Flat Springs 7", Banner Elk 4", Mt Mitchell 6", Sugar Mtn 7", Lansing 6" Creston 4". #ncwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy's damage total should exceed $ 50 billion. Typically that would be well more than more enough for retirement of the name. However, the problem I see with that is the fact that the storm made landfall as a post tropical cyclone.


That would be beyond stupid if they did that in my opinion, a lot of the damage it did happened before it went post-tropical as well throughout the day yesterday. Most the damage to Atlantic City and in New Jersey happened when Sandy was still tropical as well, and plus there was some amount of damage in NC, and significant damage in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Climate is a culmination of weather events over 30 years or more. It's silly to proclaim we "caused" Sandy. We more likely could have contributed it her.

With this particular storm, Sandy, this was much more about timing.

--Perfect Storm Track to funnel water up the Long Island Sound and Lower Bay bring record surges at the Battery, Sandy Hook (no pun intended), and other locations.

--Perfect timing in regards to monthly moon cycles.

--Perfect timing in regards to daily high tide

--Perfect landfall location funneling massive amounts of water into NYC

--Perfect east fetch of high wind followed by an ensuing southeast fetch that followed close after

--Perfect atmospheric setup with a blocking high at the right place coupled with a negatively tilted trough to reel Sandy in.

--Perfect time that Sandy transitioned to extratropical after strengenthing and deepening to 90MPH right before. The transition right up at landfall allowed for the convection to collapse, the wind field to expand, and for the strong gusts at the upper levels to be mixed down to the surface to produce the strong gusts that aided the already existing massive surge.

--Perfect storm size for this kind of surge. Sandy is the second largest Atlantic Cyclone and will go down in history with flooding from the storm surge. Any coincidence? I don't think so.

--Perfect timing that it occurred not only on a weekday in the busiest financial city in the World, but also because occurring on Monday it will likely shut the city down for the remainder of the week.

--The other thing that could have been worse is maybe she occurred next week and had a bigger impact on the elections.

Other than this, I have a hard time connecting the dots to climate (which is a culmination of weather events of 30 years or more), but finding a much easier time saying this truly was the perfect storm....and timely was a HUGE REASON why.


All your points are valid, but there's one key element that matters. You can't bake a cake without turning on the oven. By heating our planet, we are turning on the oven. That's why we had the incredible & unprecedented heat wave this last spring, as well as other record heat waves here in the US and around the world over the last 10 years. It's why the Atlantic ocean was at record levels in 2005 and we had that super-charged hurricane season. It's why the waters off the Atlantic coast were unusually warm. It's why the recent development over the last few years of these anomalous blocking highs are showing up around the Arctic region. (Hint, the rising temps in the Arctic are creating a new dynamic for climatic patterns up there). It's why heat records, which are normally broken incrementally, are getting smashed. It's why forest fires are ravaging regions and breaking records.

Short of a cataclysmic event, I don't think there is anything that can happen that will convince people like yourself that climate change is now and events like Sandy are a result of it. We better get prepared for more Sandy's and more heat waves like we had in the Mid-West/Canada this spring.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy's damage total should exceed $ 50 billion. Typically that would be well more than more enough for retirement of the name. However, the problem I see with that is the fact that the storm made landfall as a post tropical cyclone.

It won't matter. Simply because the damage from the surge was the water that was generated and subsequently pushed when Sandy was fully tropical. Where do you draw the line. And 61 deaths in the Caribbean?

Sandy will be retired as a tropical entity. I think it's a non-brainer.
So this answers the question: why build an 8' wall around NYC vs a 13' wall around Mexico?
Quoting ScottLincoln:


By what definition is Sandy covering 1.8 million sq miles?
Something about the math is setting off skepticism alarms in my head.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif


wait a minute...the USA is 3.8 million square miles INCLUDING Alaska... AND ll the other territories ...not just the lower 48 states
Quoting guygee:
I think former President Bush the Younger was happy with the "cleansing" of New Orleans, as he saw it. It is an ugly fact and not really a secret that a strong belief in eugenics runs deep in that family. Both the maternal and paternal lines in that family were big fans of the fascist regimes in Europe during the 1930's. They were not the only ones, the admirers of fascism used the isolationist movement to their own ends during that time. It could be the Franklin Roosevelt's greatest political skill has nothing to do with the New Deal and was really all about overcoming those isolationists and getting the U.S. involved in WWII. Never forget that American heroes like Charles Lindbergh and Henry Ford were proud to have Adolph Hitler award them an iron cross medal in full public view. It is an ugly part of history that has been swept under the rug but may rear its head again someday.


What does any of this have to do with what is happening today? Show respect with the issue of the day or go to another blog.
Quoting FatPenguin:


All your points are valid, but there's one key element that matters. You can't bake a cake without turning on the oven. By heating our planet, we are turning on the oven. That's why we had the incredible & unprecedented heat wave this last spring, as well as other record heat waves here in the US and around the world over the last 10 years. It's why the Atlantic ocean was at record levels in 2005 and we had that super-charged hurricane season. It's why the waters off the Atlantic coast were unusually warm. It's why the recent development over the last few years of these anomalous blocking highs are showing up around the Arctic region. (Hint, the rising temps in the Arctic are creating a new dynamic for climatic patterns up there). It's why heat records, which are normally broken incrementally, are getting smashed. It's why forest fires are ravaging regions and breaking records.

Short of a cataclysmic event, I don't think there is anything that can happen that will convince people like yourself that climate change is now and events like Sandy are a result of it. We better get prepared for more Sandy's and more heat waves like we had in the Mid-West/Canada this spring.


Please read my post again. I said "contributed", not "caused".

The amount of contribution and whether or not it was even "caused" by AGW will likely be debated by scientists for decades to come.
1689. robj144
Quoting ScottLincoln:


By what definition is Sandy covering 1.8 million sq miles?
Something about the math is setting off skepticism alarms in my head.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif


I agree. If a radius of of 500 miles is used, it's .78 million square miles.
Did anyone find good aerial imagery available to the public? I hope they have some impressive gas powered pumps to deploy to the tunnels and subway system. Salt water on metal infrastructure is an expensive and long clean up.

Oh, I get it now.
I agree with other climate conservatives. There isn't any change in future weather. We need to rebuild the 5' seawall that has worked for the longest time, since the calmer weather patterns in the future won't bother N.Y.C. subway again. The record-breaking storm surge levels are a natural part of the climate we have just never seen before. All the huge damages are because people buy more expensive stuff and like to live near the ocean and other places.
The reason we haven't had a below average month in the last hundred or two or three, is obviously because the average is wrong.
There is no need to do anything differently like spending money to prepare for new or larger storms, again.
What business do weather people who have watched it for decades have discussing climate, they aren%u2019t the same. And Climate people have no perspective to offer on weather, since it is at a completely different time scale. It is so annoying. The flood and droughts balance each other out. The same is true for blizzards and hurricanes. Climate Change is all a hoax to make people spend money on infrastructure and solar power when we could be spending on... wars and deeper oil wells?
but i would caution that many of the things could it be related. would it be outrageous to suggest that a negatively tilted trough, a blocking high, and a strong negative NAO could be related?


Not to mention the more obvious hypothesis:


--Perfect storm size for this kind of surge. Sandy is the second largest Atlantic Cyclone and will go down in history with flooding from the storm surge. Any coincidence? I don't think so.


Aka, whether increased concentrations of GHGs tend to promote such large storms. Which the current evidence suggests, due to the increase in difference between SSTs and upper level temperatures (aka, the net harnessable atmospheric energy).

I find her resistance to shear troubling. She hit some nasty shear and held up. The two main camps on AGW's impact on hurricanes is that it'll increase due to the increased atmospheric energy (GHG-induced warming warms the surface much faster than the upper atmosphere), while the other is that it also increases shear, and the shear could counter or even overwhelm the increased energy. To see big storms shrug off such massive shear... not pretty.

There's no question that a storm like Sandy need a huge amount of coincidences to happen. But the question isn't whether AGW *causes* storms like Sandy. It's whether it increases their likelihood.
1690:

Spending too much time at Anthony Watt's website will cause your head to spin. I get that.
Quoting robj144:


I agree. If a radius of of 500 miles is used, it's .78 million square miles.


According to The Weather Channel, the storm is now 1700 miles at its shortest point, over 1800 miles at its widest
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That would be beyond stupid if they did that in my opinion, a lot of the damage it did happened before it went post-tropical as well throughout the day yesterday. Most the damage to Atlantic City and in New Jersey happened when Sandy was still tropical as well, and plus there was some amount of damage in NC, and significant damage in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.


It's stupid enough that Hurricane Warnings were not issued... So it's possible they wont retire Sandy.
Quoting robj144:


I agree. If a radius of of 500 miles is used, it's .78 million square miles.


that can't be right...78 million sq mi. is BIGGER THAN THE ENTIRE USA ALTOGETHER
Con-Ed indicates significant damage has occurred to the NYC underground power system due to flooding.

In the 108 yrs of the NYC Massive Transit System "it has never faced a disaster as devastating as last night"

7 subway tunnels under the East River were flooded. 6 bus garages were flooded. Hugh Carey Tunnel is flooded end to end and the Queens Midtown Tunnel is flooded.

A massive fire has burned over 50 homes in Queens due to arcing power lines and strong winds

60mph winds and 24ft waves are expected near Chicago today
1697. guygee
Quoting ExumaMET:
Is there no moderator with the nuts to block the users who continue to abuse the blog with repeated off-topic posts that abuse the blog and frustrate the readers who're trying to get info on the subject matter? BTW, in case we've forgotten the subject is Sandy!
See!
Post1661. guygee
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.


The moderators are on their job!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Con-Ed indicates significant damage has occurred to the NYC underground power system due to flooding.

In the 108 yrs of the NYC Massive Transit System "it has never faced a disaster as devastating as last night"

7 subway tunnels under the East River were flooded. 6 bus garages were flooded. Hugh Carey Tunnel is flooded end to end and the Queens Midtown Tunnel is flooded.

A massive fire has burned over 50 homes in Queens due to arcing power lines and strong winds

60mph winds and 24ft waves are epected near Chicago today

We really won't even have a grasp of the amount of damage in U.S. dollar at least for a couple months....

This has only begun.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that can't be right...78 million sq mi. is BIGGER THAN THE ENTIRE USA ALTOGETHER


That was 0.78 * 10^6 miles.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Con-Ed indicates significant damage has occurred to the NYC underground power system due to flooding.

In the 108 yrs of the NYC Massive Transit System "it has never faced a disaster as devastating as last night"


Which would mean that this is worse than the damage caused to the transit system by the WTC collapse. Geez...
Quoting reedzone:


It's stupid enough that Hurricane Warnings were not issued... So it's possible they wont retire Sandy.


The NHC expected it to go post-tropical early yesterday. But when it didn't, the NHC probably decided that it was way too late, and that there was little they could do by adding the warnings. Significant flooding occurred throughout the day as it was tropical, directly from the hurricane, especially to Atlantic City. Wind damage occurred from the hurricane also, not the nor'easter that came in behind it, making the storm the 'superstorm'. There's no way Sandy won't be retired, especially as the extend of the damage continues to be revealed throughout the day.
Quoting southfla:


I am very happy congaline stepped up and summarized what needs to be said about global climate change. Those who are deniers will be denying any link to human activities right up to the point their little toes are dancing in sea water 10 miles away from the present high water line. I have given up trying to convince them since nature will do that for me in time, however those of us with genuine concerns should refuse to be shouted down by their aggressive, bellicose responses. I seem to remember something about free speech.


GW probably contributed about 1-3 mb in pressure in this storm (1-2F warming). AMO cycle has been extremely positive since 1995-1996. So blaming this storm on GW is non-sense. I guess people forgot the 1938 hurricane? 1950 nor'easter. 1960 Donna. Large storms like this happen from time to time.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Please read my post again. I said "contributed", not "caused". No one is saying it was "caused" by AGW.

The amount of contribution will likely be debated by scientists for decades to come.


You're arguing semantics then. Nobody with a basic understanding of weather says AGW caused a hurricane.

My point is that the time to argue whether or not AGW had any contribution to many of the extreme events over the last decade is past. I've read the word "unprecedented" so many times in the last few years that the word is losing it's punch.

Heat = energy. More heat = more energy. This is basic HS science. We are pumping more energy into the climatic system.

The fact that our leaders don't convey that message is really frustrating.
Quoting reedzone:


It's stupid enough that Hurricane Warnings were not issued... So it's possible they wont retire Sandy.


They weren't issued because the system was post-tropical at landfall. As it wasn't a Tropical Cyclone, hurricane warnings technically weren't appropriate.

I'd still have issued them personally though. To the general public, it looked like a hurricane, hit like a hurricane...
The whole 50 sates and the DC area add up to 3,130,816 EXCLUDING Alaska

If Sandy is in the east side of the CONUS..about 1/3 based on radar and satellite... then we can say she is 1,04,605 miles... or about 1 million miles
1706. redux
Quoting reedzone:


It's stupid enough that Hurricane Warnings were not issued... So it's possible they wont retire Sandy.


if they can retire Alison, they can retire Sandy.
1707. sfranz
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


A hurricane made landfall in the most heavily populated area of the country with no "Hurricane Warnings". I think he has a valid point.


Reading the papers this morning I have seen only one that correctly explained the transition of the cyclone. All the rest are saying Sandy was "downgraded from a hurricane.". Most people are making decisions based on the media reports.

The New England local mets did get a local hurricane statement up but the mid-Atlantic folks largely never did.

Once everyone has had some sleep there needs to be a tune up on communications for non- canonical storms. We still aren't there yet on getting info out about storm surges and hybrid beasties.

2c.

Quoting KarenRei:


Which would mean that this is worse than the damage caused to the transit system by the WTC collapse. Geez...


If the waters destroyed all electrical wiring and what not down there, these things aint opening for a LONG time
LOOOOOOOOOOOOLMAO

I wonder if anyone has posted this yet..I found this to late.

Link
I personally, am not fond of the widespread and constant use of the term "superstorm." In my mind it makes it seem more like an anomaly. Now don't get me wrong, Sandy is a storm like no other, but in my mind, the only really thing that stands out in my mind is just the sheer size of the storm. The only thing that made her a "superstorm" was the fact that she brought those conditions to so many people. But, if anyone of those areas were to be affected by a typical sized cyclone, the local affects could be just as bad if not worse. In some ways I do agree with TomballTxPride. the main legacy with her will be her flooding, but it is something that had the potential to happen with other storms. Take the Battery for example: 14 foot water level, but 5 feet were from tide= 9 foot storm surge... not inconceivable with another well timed/positioned storm.

I'm not trying to take away from the magnitude/significance of this storm, but I think that psychologically, when you consistently use terms like "superstorm" and "once in a life time event," you are setting common people up for apathy down the road. IMO, the message should be, "This is a hurricane, this is the kind of damage these storms are capable of, this is why we need to take these events seriously."



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy's damage total should exceed $ 50 billion. Typically that would be well more than more enough for retirement of the name. However, the problem I see with that is the fact that the storm made landfall as a post tropical cyclone.


Yea, I think the NHC missed on that one. I wonder if the Mayor of Atlantic City would have evacuated if a hurricane warning was issued. That that it should matter but I think it does.
Quoting reedzone:


It's stupid enough that Hurricane Warnings were not issued... So it's possible they wont retire Sandy.


remember they said Sandy was gonna go extratropical before sandy made landfall.
NOT JUST AN HOUR BEFORE DOING SO!!! Hurricane warnings should have been up..
Quoting txag91met:


GW probably contributed about 1-3 mb in pressure in this storm (1-2F warming). AMO cycle has been extremely positive since 1995-1996. So blaming this storm on GW is non-sense. I guess people forgot the 1938 hurricane? 1950 nor'easter. 1960 Donna. Large storms like this happen from time to time.


I guess you're ignoring the statements by gov officials and weather experts that they've never seen anything like this, and it's unprecedented? And there are facts to back that up?
Sandy- 16 Katrina- 1833

Overhyped? You decide.
Quoting FatPenguin:


You're arguing semantics then. Nobody with a basic understanding of weather says AGW caused a hurricane.

My point is that the time to argue whether or not AGW had any contribution to many of the extreme events over the last decade is past. I've read the word "unprecedented" so many times in the last few years that the word is losing it's punch.

Heat = energy. More heat = more energy. This is basic HS science. We are pumping more energy into the climatic system.

The fact that our leaders don't convey that message is really frustrating.


It can be, but the message you are trying to convey must be understand and bought by the citizens of this country, since they are the ones who elect and put the leaders of this fine country in office in the first place.
Quoting whipster:
Sandy- 16 Katrina- 1833

Overhyped? You decide.


You forgot the people in the Caribbean who died.
Quoting FatPenguin:


I guess you're ignoring the statements by gov officials and weather experts that they've never seen anything like this, and it's unprecedented? And there are facts to back that up?

Perfect storms are almost always unprecedented. I don't think anyone is arguing with you there.
Quoting whipster:
Sandy- 16 Katrina- 1833

Overhyped? You decide.
Damage is very extreme though... something Northeast USA won't forget.
1720. keisa90
Quoting FatPenguin:


I guess you're ignoring the statements by gov officials and weather experts that they've never seen anything like this, and it's unprecedented? And there are facts to back that up?


But don't you think that after the 1938 storm they were saying "We've never seen anything like this before".
Quoting whipster:
Sandy- 16 Katrina- 1833

Overhyped? You decide.


That's called saving lives by spreading awareness, and remember we're just getting the totals in. The death toll could be higher.
It's warmer this morning in Toronto, Ontario than Atlanta, Georgia. Even the outer Washington DC area is getting a rain-snow mix, while New York basks in 50F+ weather.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
So global warming caused this storm to be deadly? THAT IS SO STUPID. Whenever you like it or not, a storm this size was going to eventually hit Mid-Atlantic or New England. Global warming is NOT the biggest reason why Sandy is so bad.


Not sure why you're telling poster they're "so stupid" for saying AGW is why Sandy was so deadly.

You seem to qualify your statement by saying "not the biggest reason."

First, anyone that blames Sandy 100% on AGW is missing the point. AGW opens the door for storms like Sandy to reach greater strength. Without AGW, Sandy may happen, but not at the level she reached.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's called saving lives by spreading awareness, and remember we're just getting the totals in. The death toll could be higher.

And the only reason why Katrina's death toll was so high it was because the levees. If the levees didn't breach it would have been a whole different story.
It was 46 this morning! in WPB at my home!!
Quoting txag91met:


GW probably contributed about 1-3 mb in pressure in this storm (1-2F warming). AMO cycle has been extremely positive since 1995-1996. So blaming this storm on GW is non-sense. I guess people forgot the 1938 hurricane? 1950 nor'easter. 1960 Donna. Large storms like this happen from time to time.
No one is "blaming" Sandy on global warming; that's a lame straw-man argument. The truth is, however, that a storm with such widespread intensity as Sandy has never before been witnessed in the United States. At least three basic ways climate change likely impacted the damage Sandy caused:

1) Sea levels are 7" higher than they were 100 years ago (and rising);

2) Waters are warmer in the tropical Atlantic; that extra warmth means more energy;

3) The record low levels of Arctic sea ice last month probably contributed to the blocking high that set up over Greenland and the North Atlantic, helping to guide Sandy into the U.S.

About the only thing more ignorant than claiming that warming "caused" Sandy is claiming that warming had absolutely nothing to do with it.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's actually 47.49..nearly 50%..I was wrong when i posted it here too
Quoting indianrivguy:
Wow;

Nick Hurst ‏@ALStormChaser
Interesting Note: Sandy is currently covering approximately 1.8 million square miles! The entire US is 3.79 million square miles!

That's half the dang country..49.9 % (conus)

Thanks Aussie!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you do the math... 1.8/3.79=

Sandy covers 45.49% of the lower 48..!!!
nearly HALF of the whole CONUS!

The last closed isobar of Sandy as analyzed by NOAA/NWS/HPC averages about 600-700mi from the center of the low pressure area. Assuming 700 miles for the radius, that is an area of 1.54 million square miles.

Sandy is not, however, in the middle of the country, and thus much of it is affecting ocean, not the CONUS. A rough estimate would be about 1/4 - 1/3 that is offshore. This leaves maybe 1.0 million square miles of the CONUS actually affected by Sandy at this time, even estimated conservatively.
1728. NJ2S
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The NHC expected it to go post-tropical early yesterday. But when it didn't, the NHC probably decided that it was way too late, and that there was little they could do by adding the warnings. Significant flooding occurred throughout the day as it was tropical, directly from the hurricane, especially to Atlantic City. Wind damage occurred from the hurricane also, not the nor'easter that came in behind it, making the storm the 'superstorm'. There's no way Sandy won't be retired, especially as the extend of the damage continues to be revealed throughout the day.


Yes as the storm approached the coast and the storm ramped up here in Hoboken it got very warm and humid
1729. redux
Quoting keisa90:


But don't you think that after the 1938 storm they were saying "We've never seen anything like this before".


but that didn't make a left hook. and it didnt happen in very late october.
Quoting FatPenguin:


Not sure why you're telling poster they're "so stupid" for saying AGW is why Sandy was so deadly.

You seem to qualify your statement by saying "not the biggest reason."

First, anyone that blames Sandy 100% on AGW is missing the point. AGW opens the door for storms like Sandy to reach greater strength. Without AGW, Sandy may happen, but not at the level she reached.

But then, are the perfect elements (tide, timing) there to make Sandy the monster she was? Every single event sets in motion a chain of events that follow. Tide and Time are not going to change by humans. Ever. Those are constants.
I was but a child but remember the "March Storm of 1962" living in the very small coastal barrier island of Lavallette.
Sandy reminds me of the March Storm with its devastation and consecutive high tides and it affecting many states.
In Lavallette the town was not densely populated then but I remember going to the beach afterward and seeing the remaining homes that looked like doll houses.
The decision to go with HPC & local WFO disseminating info after transition to post-tropical transition & landfall made sense for those those that got snowed on. Hurricane warnings did't cover all the dangers that were involved by that point.
1733. Wiebel
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Perfect storms are almost always unprecedented. I don't think anyone is arguing with you there.


Within modern history and our records of storms. And old records arent as good, and we didnt have as much cities in the floodplain.

Given we have only ~150 to 200 years of records, any large storm is unprecedented and "perfect".

Sandy might have been the 1:500 o 1:5000 year storm, to early to tell.

As in the Climate Change chat: you can't relate a single event to Climate Change, no one can, not even the best scientist. To many unknown factors.
I can't believe that some people still claim that Sandy was "Overhyped" Sandy will certainly be one of the 5 most costly storms in US history. I believe #2 when all is counted. Yes it was a CAT 1 on the SS scale but it had the highest surge potential of any storm in history. It will cost more than monsters like Camille. It affected more people than just about any storm in history.

For most people affected this will be the worst weather event they face in thier lifetimes... Overhyped???? Ha..
Quoting Neapolitan:
No one is "blaming" Sandy on global warming; that's a lame straw-man argument. The truth is, however, that a storm with such widespread intensity as Sandy has never before been witnessed in the United States. At least three basic ways climate change likely impacted the damage Sandy caused:

1) Sea levels are 7" higher than they were 100 years ago (and rising);

2) Waters are warmer in the tropical Atlantic; that extra warmth means more energy;

3) The record low levels of Arctic sea ice last month probably contributed to the blocking high that set up over Greenland and the North Atlantic, helping to guide Sandy into the U.S.

About the only thing more ignorant than claiming that warming "caused" Sandy is claiming that warming had absolutely nothing to do with it.


I think that the higher temperatures in the Gulf stream contributed highly to how bad this storm got, they were thinking 75mph-80mph when it hit, instead it was a 90mph-100mph hurricane by the time it was approaching the coast, going extra-tropical. Regarding the blocking high, the hurricanes in the 1930s had a similar blocking pattern that we do now, a lot of storms took unusual routes, so I wouldn't be too quick to jump on to say it's Global Warming, though it's certainly possible.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Did anyone find good aerial imagery available to the public? I hope they have some impressive gas powered pumps to deploy to the tunnels and subway system. Salt water on metal infrastructure is an expensive and long clean up.

Oh, I get it now.
I agree with other climate conservatives. There isn't any change in future weather. We need to rebuild the 5' seawall that has worked for the longest time, since the calmer weather patterns in the future won't bother N.Y.C. subway again. The record-breaking storm surge levels are a natural part of the climate we have just never seen before. All the huge damages are because people buy more expensive stuff and like to live near the ocean and other places.
The reason we haven't had a below average month in the last hundred or two or three, is obviously because the average is wrong.
There is no need to do anything differently like spending money to prepare for new or larger storms, again.
What business do weather people who have watched it for decades have discussing climate, they aren%u2019t the same. And Climate people have no perspective to offer on weather, since it is at a completely different time scale. It is so annoying. The flood and droughts balance each other out. The same is true for blizzards and hurricanes. Climate Change is all a hoax to make people spend money on infrastructure and solar power when we could be spending on... wars and deeper oil wells?
A huge and recordbreaking storm that killed dozens, and affected tens of millions across the Northeast while likely causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. The lowest volume of Arctic sea ice in at least 8,000 years. The warmest summer ever in the United States. Historically large wildfires in many states and countries. Profound, multi-billion dollar droughts. Rapidly rising sea levels. Disappearing glaciers. One record heat wave after another. Devastating floods all around the globe. And so on, and so forth. Oh, and 3.4 million metric tons of heat-trapping fossil-fuel CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere each and every hour.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm sure there's absolutely no connection whatsoever between any of those things.
Gov. Christie of NJ said it's gonna take months to recover
Quoting Skyepony:
The decision to go with HPC & local WFO disseminating info after transition to post-tropical transition & landfall made sense for those those that got snowed on. Hurricane warnings did't cover all the dangers that were involved by that point.

Hurricane warning could have been issued for the coastal regions and should have. Then the HPC, NWS, and other offices could have worked together to write and disseminate blizzard and other non-tropical storm warnings.
1739. Dsntslp
Quoting RitaEvac:


If the waters destroyed all electrical wiring and what not down there, these things aint opening for a LONG time
I know we heard them say, before the storm hit, that if the NY subways flooded it would be at least a month before they could get them up and running again. I don't remember who said it, sorry. I do know I heard it on the news from a link posted here and I mostly stayed with CBS or TWC. They also said 8 1/2 million people per day utilize the NY subway.

I wonder, if now they are not saying that in order to prevent a massive migration of people out of the city as soon as they can leave.

I picture a father or mother at the table with their children and family, possibly even a grandparent or two, wondering how he/she is going to support and feed them now that he has no job as his place of employment is destroyed. Wondering how he will even go look for a job because the subways are not running. They can only put just so many buses on the road there, right?

I am thinking, that if I were that parent, I would be begging anybody and everybody on the face of this planet to let me and my family come live with them at least for a while. Being that parent, once I established residency someplace else and the kids were in new schools, I had a job etc... I don't think I would uproot them again until summer at least.

If you lived in NYC right now and had a family there, what would you do? Providing that you could leave and no longer had a job (at least for some months to come)?

Logic tells me I would get my family out asap.
Anyone remember the "March Storm of '62"? I lived in Lavallette, NJ; a small barrier island only blocks wide from ocean to bay.
There were consecutive high tides and devastation. Homes that remained twisted or ripped in half. Not as densely populated then.
Quoting Wiebel:


Within modern history and our records of storms. And old records arent as good, and we didnt have as much cities in the floodplain.

Given we have only ~150 to 200 years of records, any large storm is unprecedented and "perfect".

Sandy might have been the 1:500 o 1:5000 year storm, to early to tell.

As in the Climate Change chat: you can't relate a single event to Climate Change, no one can, not even the best scientist. To many unknown factors.

Exactly. When official records (the same way we keep them today) by NWS offices in regards to barometric pressure, temperature, etc. only go back 150 years at best, you are bound to break new records.
Quoting whipster:
Sandy- 16 Katrina- 1833

Overhyped? You decide.

Sandy- $50 billion+
Katrina - $108 billion (most costly)
Ike - $37.6 billion (2nd most costly)

Overhyped? You decide.
1743. beell
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I personally, am not fond of the widespread and constant use of the term "superstorm." In my mind it makes it seem more like an anomaly. Now don't get me wrong, Sandy is a storm like no other, but in my mind, the only really thing that stands out in my mind is just the sheer size of the storm. The only thing that made her a "superstorm" was the fact that she brought those conditions to so many people. But, if anyone of those areas were to be affected by a typical sized cyclone, the local affects could be just as bad if not worse. In some ways I do agree with TomballTxPride. the main legacy with her will be her flooding, but it is something that had the potential to happen with other storms. Take the Battery for example: 14 foot water level, but 5 feet were from tide= 9 foot storm surge... not inconceivable with another well timed/positioned storm.

I'm not trying to take away from the magnitude/significance of this storm, but I think that psychologically, when you consistently use terms like "superstorm" and "once in a life time event," you are setting common people up for apathy down the road. IMO, the message should be, "This is a hurricane, this is the kind of damage these storms are capable of, this is why we need to take these events seriously."





Not to mention, that Sandy's large size had roots in the monsoon trough that covered most of the Caribbean. And she retained this very large circulation throughout her life. Hardly a season goes by that we don't see one or two disturbances spring from this type of set-up.

Gulf coastal lows that get captured by a negative tilt trough that rake the eastern seaboard are also quite common. Nothing odd in that respect.

The anomaly was the the strength of the ridge that insured Sandy would not escape to the north or northeast.

The debate should center on the question; Just how anomalous was the ridge?

So sick of global warming arguments...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sandy- $50 billion+
Katrina - $108 billion (most costly)
Ike - $37.6 billion (2nd most costly)

Overhyped? You decide.
Hilarious they are still claiming that Sandy was overhyped...
New Jersey jetskier driving through flooded streets

Link
Has anyone checked out the March Storm of 1962?

I grew up in Lavallette, NJ a small barrier island of only blocks wide.

Similarities. Consecutive high tides. Devastation. Affected many states. Snow in some.

The aftermath when I went to the ocean side showed the remaining homes twisted or with their facades off.
This year has been pretty similar to 1936 IMO, a lot of blocking forcing storms to take unusual paths, and limited major hurricanes, but destructive.



With the perfect ingredients that came together and synchronized almost flawlessly, this was likely a once in a 250 year storm or more.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think that the higher temperatures in the Gulf stream contributed highly to how bad this storm got, they were thinking 75mph-80mph when it hit, instead it was a 90mph-100mph hurricane by the time it was approaching the coast, going extra-tropical. Regarding the blocking high, the hurricanes in the 1930s had a similar blocking pattern that we do now, a lot of storms took unusual routes, so I wouldn't be too quick to jump on to say it's Global Warming, though it's certainly possible.
Please read carefully; I didn't say it was just the blocking high. In fact, I clearly listed three separate ways working together climate change could have impacted Sandy.

An excellent article on Quartz.com ends this way: "So, is climate change causing a storm that could do record amounts of damage to the US eastern seaboard and disrupt trade all over the globe? Perhaps the more salient question is: Will climate change lead to more frequent extreme weather events everywhere, including rare occurrences such as Sandy? And the answer to that one is a resounding yes."
can we plzs take the global warming arguments else where like your own blogs and whats talk anout sandy?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sandy- $50 billion+
Katrina - $108 billion (most costly)
Ike - $37.6 billion (2nd most costly)

Overhyped? You decide.


With the damage all the way into the Great Lakes region, I'm willing to bet its costs pass $50B. The subway system damage is easily millions
1753. Wiebel
Quoting Neapolitan:
g pumped into the atmosphere each and every hour.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm sure there's absolutely no connection whatsoever between any of those things.


Well, there is no conclusive evidence of a relation between coastal storm surge induced flooding and CC. There is no conclusive word on the effect of CC on canes.

I do know building on the beach and floodplain is a risky business. It has been rather popular the last decades.

Damage is not just caused by a storm. Its poor planning a storm.
1754. sfranz
No one really wants to believe that it's your own 40 year old furnace, F350, and poorly insulated attic that changes the weather.

I suppose the good news is oil prices will force fixing those issues no matter what you believe sooner or later. And our kids may see the results.

You just have to look at generator sales over the past few years to see that storms are bigger, hitting areas where the haven't before, and causing more damage.

There has never been this much snow in the TN/WV mountains this early.

This must be caused by man-made global cooling.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please read carefully; I didn't say it was just the blocking high. In fact, I clearly listed three separate ways working together climate change could have impacted Sandy.

An excellent article on Quartz.com ends this way: "So, is climate change causing a storm that could do record amounts of damage to the US eastern seaboard and disrupt trade all over the globe? Perhaps the more salient question is: Will climate change lead to more frequent extreme weather events everywhere, including rare occurrences such as Sandy? And the answer to that one is a resounding yes."


Fair enough, I'll tell you flat out I'm not educated enough to make a real stand on GW, for or against it. Kinda why I don't talk about it.
Quoting whipster:
Sandy- 16 Katrina- 1833

Overhyped? You decide.


Really, I had no idea that by midnight on the 23rd of august (landfall day, Katrina struck at 5:30 AM) they had confirmed 1833 dead. Because that's where we currently are in the Sandy timeline.

Or were you trying to make a non-comparable comparison by comparing the Katrina death toll on 4 october?

I'm not saying that the death toll from Sandy will be comparable. But it's safe to say that it's way too early to be making definitive statements about Sandy's death toll.
5 substations have been compromised according to NJ governor.
Quoting Tazmanian:
can we plzs take the global warming arguments else where like your own blogs and whats talk anout sandy?
They'll just claim global warming is part of weather and this is a weather blog... it's no use. My argument is that this is an active time.
Sandy still has winds of 65 mph, is still moving, is still causing damage, blizzards, and power outages.

Would be good to remember that. Its not over.
1761. K8eCane
Quoting Articuno:

And the only reason why Katrina's death toll was so high it was because the levees. If the levees didn't breach it would have been a whole different story.



Amen to that. Katrina was bad but nothing they hadnt seen before. They had a LEVEE problem
OK, does the March Storm of 1962 look remotely like this one?
Consecutive high tides. Affected many states and some with snow. Devastation.
I lived in Lavallette, NJ a tiny barrier island then as a child. Not many folk lived there back then.
Quoting oracle28:
There has never been this much snow in the TN/WV mountains this early.

This must be caused by man-made global cooling.


Do you know at what temperature snow is most likely to fall?

Just slightly *above* freezing. The colder the air, the less moisture it holds.

The main issue however is that the warmer the average planet's temperature, the more water vapor the atmosphere as a whole contains (at a rate that rises surprisingly fast with temperature). And as that moisture circulates and cools, it precipitates. If it precipitates in a cold air mass, it's snow.

If you were talking about "cold", not "snow", and had statistical evidence, and your evidence was global and not localized, you might have a point.

The reality is you're actually countering the point you're trying to make.
3 entire towns flooded in NJ from levee failure.

Estimated 1000 people trapped in their attics and on rooftops
Lake Erie
Link
Quoting RitaEvac:
5 substations have been compromised according to NJ governor.


compromised?
1767. ncstorm
Quoting zoomiami:
Sandy still has winds of 65 mph, is still moving, is still causing damage, blizzards, and power outages.

Would be good to remember that. Its not over.


they are too busy punching their chests to notice..
Quoting Bluestorm5:
They'll just claim global warming is part of weather and this is a weather blog... it's no use. My argument is that this is an active time.

The reason they are allowed to post GW stuff is because of this, on the "Links for Sandy" section of the blog entry:
Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?
1769. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:



Amen to that. Katrina was bad but nothing they hadnt seen before. They had a LEVEE problem


Not to mention the fact that the city is in a BOWL right beside a huge body of water. Common sense??
Quoting Bluestorm5:
They'll just claim global warming is part of weather and this is a weather blog... it's no use. My argument is that this is an active time.


You are right, this is a weather blog, not a climate blog..
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Hurricane warning could have been issued for the coastal regions and should have. Then the HPC, NWS, and other offices could have worked together to write and disseminate blizzard and other non-tropical storm warnings.


Blizzard warnings at times come with warnings of hurricane force winds..People were told to prepare for hurricane force winds. We don't issue hurricane warnings for a blizzard, derecho, tornado or straight line winds or post-tropical storms.. People in the NE along the coast were told to expect hurricane force winds as people in WV & WNC were told to expect snow..as they should have.
1772. 7544
something trying to form in the cariabiean maybe a yellow circle soon there ?
Governor Jerry Brown has ordered resources to the East Coast to help with the cleanup of Hurricane Sandy.

The Governor's Office reports that the California National Guard has sent military transport aircraft carrying two helicopters and two highly trained Pararescue teams to Charlotte, North Carolina. Aircraft are also being deployed, including a Boeing C17, two C130 aircraft and two HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopters.

In addition, 83 state emergency responders are being positioned close to the affected areas for quick deployment. These teams are trained in medical aid, search and rescue and other emergency response activities.

PG&E has sent 150 workers to New York to help restore power. The Associated Press reports that the storm, that made landfall in New Jersey on Monday, resulted in fatalities in seven states and cut power to more than 7.4 million homes and businesses.
reedzone: It's stupid enough that Hurricane Warnings were not issued...
1704 JVGazeley: They weren't issued because the system was post-tropical at landfall. As it wasn't a Tropical Cyclone, hurricane warnings technically weren't appropriate.
I'd still have issued them personally though. To the general public, it looked like a hurricane, hit like a hurricane...


Yep. Ridiculous enough to handover AtlanticCyclones to the Europeans once they go PostTropical or ExtraTropical. But at least there is some "sovereignty treaty obligation" and "national leaders have the vested interest to do what's right for their citizens" excuse.
Similar handovers to prevent bureaucratic bickering within the CommerceDepartment is an absurd travesty of the "government doing right by its people".
The NHC has the expertise on LARGE cyclonic weather systems over the ocean.
If it starts in the ocean, let the NHC keep the responsibility of reporting on PostTropical and ExtraTropical systems until at least landfall. Who cares ifn some unqualified NWS muckity-mucks wanna glory hog on oceanic systems.
...TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...
8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 30
Location: 14.5°N 116.5°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph  
I find it strange that people find it strange that other people can say untruthful things and not spontaneously self destruct or something.
I'm running this on computer

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/livenow?id=8857235
Quoting Skyepony:


Blizzard warnings at times come with warnings of hurricane force winds..People were told to prepare for hurricane force winds. We don't issue hurricane warnings for a blizzard, derecho, tornado or straight line winds.. People in the NE along the coast were told to expect hurricane force winds as people in WV & WNC were told to expect snow..as they should have.

They should have. Absolutely. I agree with you on that more.
Seems to me the standard for warnings should be, if it was a hurricane when people would need to *start* evacuating, then hurricane warnings should be issued.

It doesn't make a whit of a difference to a person on the ground whether the core is warm or cold when the storm strikes.
Quoting zoomiami:
Sandy still has winds of 65 mph, is still moving, is still causing damage, blizzards, and power outages.

Would be good to remember that. Its not over.


Hey Zoo, hope all if fine with you. I wonder if anyone has heard from Washingtonian115, I hope she's k, right know we need to be worried about our friends on the NE Coast and inland and not the arguments on AGW. You all can talk about that another day but today get real. There's a lot of folks in danger and needing help and we need to have the blog where we can post things that are important right know. Have a heart and think about what's going on with our neighbors right know. Sending prayers to ev1.

Sheri
Quoting LargoFl:
yes an 8 is just about right, the sheer size of it maybe other hurricanes pale in comparison..never saw a storm that HUGE, charley also was a huge one but sandy beat him
Agree!
Quoting Tazmanian:


compromised?


Flooded, destroyed, damaged
Remember that it was the Greenland Block that enabled this storm to make a westward turn, not unlike the Newfoundland block in 1938 that triggered the northwest turn of the Long Island Express. Remember also that it was this same Greenland Block anomaly that triggered a heat wave in west Greeland and East Nunavut simultaneously as a bout of cold weather and snowstorms in the Northeast in 2010-2011. Looks like we'll have another crazy winter in North America.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Hey Zoo, hope all if fine with you. I wonder if anyone has heard from Washingtonian115, I hope she's k, right know we need to be worried about our friends on the NE Coast and inland and not the arguments on AGW. You all can talk about that another day but today get real. There's a lot of folks in danger and needing help and we need to have the blog where we can post things that are important right know. Have a heart and think about what's going on with our neighbors right know. Sending prayers to ev1.

Sheri


Hi Sheri: couldn't agree more. Everything is good here, sad to see the damages, many of my favorite places.

The last we heard from W115 she was losing power, about 8 last night I think.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


By what definition is Sandy covering 1.8 million sq miles?
Something about the math is setting off skepticism alarms in my head.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif


Someone's definition of cover appears to be way off. A quick calculation using Google Earth suggests that they are only about 1 million square miles off.
Has anyone checked out the "March Storm of 1962"?

I lived in Lavallette, NJ; a small barrier island.

The March Storm of '62 affected many states with devastation. Even snowed in some states. Consecutive high tides contributed to the devastation and surge.

Quoting KarenRei:


Do you know at what temperature snow is most likely to fall?

Just slightly *above* freezing. The colder the air, the less moisture it holds.

The main issue however is that the warmer the average planet's temperature, the more water vapor the atmosphere as a whole contains (at a rate that rises surprisingly fast with temperature). And as that moisture circulates and cools, it precipitates. If it precipitates in a cold air mass, it's snow.

If you were talking about "cold", not "snow", and had statistical evidence, and your evidence was global and not localized, you might have a point.

The reality is you're actually countering the point you're trying to make.


Blizzard caused by global warming. Got it, thanks for the correction.

Unemployment caused by global warming.

Giants win world series due to global warming.
1789. ncstorm
Henry Margusity Fan Club
NJ Gov just said "The damage at the Jersey Shore is Unthinkable"
The lowest volume of Arctic sea ice in at least 8,000 years.

Where is this documented? Link?
Quoting zoomiami:


Hi Sheri: couldn't agree more. Everything is good here, sad to see the damages, many of my favorite places.

The last we heard from W115 she was losing power, about 8 last night I think.


gosh I really hope she's ok and her family and ev1 else up there. Hopefully we will here from some of our WU bloggers up there.

sheri
Quoting oracle28:


Blizzard caused by global warming. Got it, thanks for the correction.

Unemployment caused by global warming.

Giants win world series due to global warming.

LMAO
Quoting KarenRei:


Really, I had no idea that by midnight on the 23rd of august (landfall day, Katrina struck at 5:30 AM) they had confirmed 1833 dead. Because that's where we currently are in the Sandy timeline.

Or were you trying to make a non-comparable comparison by comparing the Katrina death toll on 4 october?

I'm not saying that the death toll from Sandy will be comparable. But it's safe to say that it's way too early to be making definitive statements about Sandy's death toll.


I agree - there is still flooding with people still being rescued. Odds are there will be further activity and sadly, more lives will be lost.
Quoting Neapolitan:
--Between 80 and 100 houses destroyed by fire in a flooded neighborhood in the New York City borough of Queens. (Source)

--Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's Hurricane Irene. (Source)
Not surprising since they were not built to code for these types of storms. Now maybe they will in the future.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Lake Erie
Link


Certainly proves the point -- looks the Atlantic did yesterday, winds are blowing.
Quoting oracle28:


Blizzard caused by global warming. Got it, thanks for the correction.


Hey, if you'd rather attack a straw man and pretend that something AGW predicts is something that it doesn't and vice versa, power to you. Teach that straw man a lesson!
A quick update: the "I demand everyone stop talking about global warming and start talking about Sandy" comments are now outnumbering GW-related comments by 2-to-1, and Sandy-related comments by nearly 3-to-1. ;-)

Seriously, guys, if you care to talk about Sandy, please do so. No one is preventing you from doing just that. And if others discussing GW in the context of Sandy bothers you, please put them on ignore. That would be much better and far more effective than posting endless off-topic comments complaining about them and demanding they stop.

Thanks!
A little view of Sandy's effect on Lake Erie here in Cleveland... Please note, this is after the break-line Link
The March Storm of '62

Different season but similarities.
Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity Fan Club
NJ Gov just said "The damage at the Jersey Shore is Unthinkable"


Has anyone checked out "The March Storm of '62"?

Similarities.
Quoting oracle28:


Blizzard caused by global warming. Got it, thanks for the correction.

Unemployment caused by global warming.

Giants win world series due to global warming.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

LMAO


I was wondering how the Dolphins managed to win 3 in a row!
Can anyone find a water level gauge on Lake Erie?
1803. Dsntslp
Mayor Bloomberg presser here live:

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/livenow?id=8857235
Link

Also on TWC now.
Quoting mikatnight:
Quoting oracle28:


Blizzard caused by global warming. Got it, thanks for the correction.

Unemployment caused by global warming.

Giants win world series due to global warming.



I was wondering how the Dolphins managed to win 3 in a row!

OMG. Keeps getting better. And so true!
1805. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please read carefully; I didn't say it was just the blocking high. In fact, I clearly listed three separate ways working together climate change could have impacted Sandy.

An excellent article on Quartz.com ends this way: "So, is climate change causing a storm that could do record amounts of damage to the US eastern seaboard and disrupt trade all over the globe? Perhaps the more salient question is: Will climate change lead to more frequent extreme weather events everywhere, including rare occurrences such as Sandy? And the answer to that one is a resounding yes."


you said the same thing after 2005 season with majors hitting every yr that did not pan out....
HOWARD COUNTY, Md. - Superstorm Sandy left parts of Maryland under water. Check out the flooding in Howard County - about 22 miles west of Baltimore.

You see the murky waters have engulfed streets and have partially submerged some buildings, and flooding isn't the only problem officials here are dealing with.

An emergency management spokeswoman says raw sewage is leaking rapidly from a plant in the area.

She says about two millions of gallon of sewage per hour are pouring out of the Little Patuxent Water Reclamation Plant because of a power outage.

Link with video. Don't watch if you're eating lunch....
The three storms that had the biggest impact on CONUS this season were:

Debby - TS - 990 min pressure - main event =rain - TStorm warnings - 380MM$ - 7 deaths

Isaac - Cat 1 - 968 min pres - main event = surge/rain - Hurricane warnings - 2B$ - 41 deaths

Sandy - Cat 1 - 940(938) min pres - main event = surge/wind/rain - 50B$ est. - 86(17US) deaths thus far

I don't know why hurricane warning were not posted. I don't know why some of you (including Bastardi) are throwing a fit over it. Is it insurance related? Is it pride? Is it that significant loss of life could have been prevented if it were a Hurricane Warning? Is it a matter of NHC policy being broken?

I don't think a hurricane warning was necessary. The media/nhc/local gov't did a good job notifying the public that this storm was a killer, with a potentially record surge/ hurricane force winds/ severe flooding DAYS ahead of time. If east coast(center of the media world) resident needed a hurricane warning to leave harms way, after all the 'hype'...we as a country are screwed.
The March Storm of 1962 has similarities to this one.

Consecutive high tides. Snow hitting some states. Wide spread devastation.

What do you experts say?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

They should have. Absolutely. I agree with you on that more.


& they were. Anyone that looked at their NWS was told what to expect. If you went to NHC (even now) expecting a really cold hurricane you will still be directed to the proper info..turn on a tv & the message was there. I don't see where the message was lost & people failed to evacuate because no hurricane warning was ordered.

HPC is a little late on the 11am update..

Still spinning..
I have a question...with the onset of lower than normal temperatures here in south Florida for 3 days(lows in the 40's and 50's) wouldn't that help to cool the Atlantic and speed up a possible end of this years hurricane season? It seems to me it would, but I've been wrong a couple of other times in the past.
Say indefinitely that global warming caused Sandy is as baseless as saying GW didn't have ANY effect or contribution to Sandy at all.
Quoting 7544:
something trying to form in the cariabiean maybe a yellow circle soon there ?


Since 5h AM this morning it's continue to growth in size ... may be Valerie is in under construction.

->
1813. pcola57
Quoting whipster:
Sandy- 16 Katrina- 1833

Overhyped? You decide.


Quoting Articuno:


You forgot the people in the Caribbean who died.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sandy- $50 billion+
Katrina - $108 billion (most costly)
Ike - $37.6 billion (2nd most costly)

Overhyped? You decide.


Articuno thank you for posting that as a reminder that we in the "conus" aren't the only ones in the world as some smugly shout..
And TropicalAnalystwx13 just a reminder for you..
I realize your mature for your age but really,how much is a life worth?
I'm not trying to be-little you..just trying to help with some perspective..
Money is just money my friend..no more no less..an intangible..
Ok..thats my rant..
thanks..carry on..
1814. LargoFl
Quoting Waltanater:
Not surprising since they were not built to code for these types of storms. Now maybe they will in the future.
from what i understand, it was a power transformer that blew up and the sparks etc..in that wind blew onto several house roofs and started the fires, dont think any building code could have prevented that IF..thats what did start those fires..in that wind, flames jumping from house to house..gee, im sure fire inspectors etc will be working for months, trying to find out the cause or causes..real bad time for those families that have to come back to find their house in ruins
1815. LargoFl
Quoting jcpoulard:


Since 5h AM this morning it's continue to growth in size ... may be Valerie is in under construction.

->
oh oh..this time of year i hope it doesnt head to the gulf..they always come to florida then
1816. Bielle
Where can I find a good (or two or three good) overall reports of damage in the various centres (like Long Island, Manhattan, Jersey Shore, barrier islands)? Thanks.


Strong Arabian Sea cyclone in the next 72 hours?
Quoting Skyepony:


& they were. Anyone that looked at their NWS was told what to expect. If you went to NHC (even now) expecting a really cold hurricane you will still be directed to the proper info..turn on a tv & the message was there. I don't see where the message was lost & people failed to evacuate because no hurricane warning was ordered.

HPC is a little late on the 11am update..

Still spinning..


I understand. But folks cannot and should not rely solely on the government to make every single decision for them. That's not the role of the government nor should be how it dictates it's power. This applies to all levels of government, not just federal.

But as always: "You can lead a horse to water"...
Quoting Neapolitan:
A huge and recordbreaking storm that killed dozens, and affected tens of millions across the Northeast while likely causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. The lowest volume of Arctic sea ice in at least 8,000 years. The warmest summer ever in the United States. Historically large wildfires in many states and countries. Profound, multi-billion dollar droughts. Rapidly rising sea levels. Disappearing glaciers. One record heat wave after another. Devastating floods all around the globe. And so on, and so forth. Oh, and 3.4 million metric tons of heat-trapping fossil-fuel CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere each and every hour.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm sure there's absolutely no connection whatsoever between any of those things.




Where is this proven? Link?
How long can this possibly maintain circulation over land?

http://hint.fm/wind/

That is simply unreal, more than 12 hours after landfall. Is this normal? I always thought they lost circulation fairly quickly after landfall
Has anyone looked back in history to "The March Storm of '62"?

Similarities.
Quoting mehmattski:
HOWARD COUNTY, Md. - Superstorm Sandy left parts of Maryland under water. Check out the flooding in Howard County - about 22 miles west of Baltimore.

You see the murky waters have engulfed streets and have partially submerged some buildings, and flooding isn't the only problem officials here are dealing with.

An emergency management spokeswoman says raw sewage is leaking rapidly from a plant in the area.

She says about two millions of gallon of sewage per hour are pouring out of the Little Patuxent Water Reclamation Plant because of a power outage.

Link with video. Don't watch if you're eating lunch....


Really like all the links you have put up today. Where are you located?
1823. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
oh oh..this time of year i hope it doesnt head to the gulf..they always come to florida then
seasons not over yet this one looks like its trying to form imo anyone heard whats going to happen with election day is it a go so far
Quoting Methurricanes:
Can anyone find a water level gauge on Lake Erie?


WUndermap is a great place to find that. Here is the only one in red.

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 78.4W
ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...ESE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA.
ABOUT 145 MILES...235KM...W OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.0 INCHES
It will be interesting to see possible revisions to how hurricanes are categorized in the future.

I don't look down upon the NHC - they did an absolutely terrific job of forecasting an utterly bizarre storm from the very beginning, and worked to prepare everyone for what they expected.

However, we've seen a trend with borderline hurricanes (in terms of wind speed) become huge storms. While they are not prototypical powerhouse hurricanes in terms of wind speed and vertical stacking, they have caused major damage and ultimately loss of life due to people judging them based on the "Category 1" moniker.

Again, I still feel like the NHC did a great job of telling people what to expect from the storm, so a lot of that responsiblity lies with the people and elected officials, but it will be interesting to see if this changes in the future to take more things into account.

Would be interested to see a Dr. Masters post on this for sure, or anyone else's opinions.
Quoting zoomiami:


Really like all the links you have put up today. Where are you located?


I'm in Durham, NC. Originally from Sussex County, NJ, so I'm familiar with all the local stations in the NYC area. I recommend NJ.com for info on what's going on in New Jersey, it's an aggregator of newspaper sites from around the state. Happy to contribute to documenting the effects of Sandy!
Quoting yoboi:


you said the same thing after 2005 season with majors hitting every yr that did not pan out....

What I don't understand is why some experts always change their mind with each ebb and flow in the wake of these disasters. I am certainly not refuting the theory that CC could have played some role or contributed in ways to these monster storms, but to change you predictions with the tides is unscientific. I don't understand why at first it was "there will be many more hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin" followed by "there will be fewer storms but with much greater intensity" followed again by "there will be storms that will impact regions not normally accustomed to seeing storms" Make up you mind and don't just make the rules as you go along. The theory supposedly has been around now for 100 years. Well then, plenty of time to make predictions and stick to them, don't you think?
The March Storm of 1962
my ignore list is HUGE after the last 4 days.
Cleveland has 30moh winds 40mpoh gusts right off the lake.
1834. ncstorm
Quoting Neapolitan:
A quick update: the "I demand everyone stop talking about global warming and start talking about Sandy" comments are now outnumbering GW-related comments by 2-to-1, and Sandy-related comments by nearly 3-to-1. ;-)

Seriously, guys, if you care to talk about Sandy, please do so. No one is preventing you from doing just that. And if others discussing GW in the context of Sandy bothers you, please put them on ignore. That would be much better and far more effective than posting endless off-topic comments complaining about them and demanding they stop.

Thanks!


Dear Nea,

Dont you think right now the most important issue is Sandy and recovery efforts? You have posted off topic comments as well telling people to stop complaining..lets just all get along until Sandy has passed..Im sure you dont want people to put you on ignore because no one will be able to see your graphs, links, etc..if you want people to become aware of climate change or GW, pick your battles and dont alienate them..its a trying time right now with so much sadness for our friends in the Northeast.

Sincerely,
NCSTORM
1835. LargoFl
Quoting Tazmanian:
Governor Jerry Brown has ordered resources to the East Coast to help with the cleanup of Hurricane Sandy.

The Governor's Office reports that the California National Guard has sent military transport aircraft carrying two helicopters and two highly trained Pararescue teams to Charlotte, North Carolina. Aircraft are also being deployed, including a Boeing C17, two C130 aircraft and two HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopters.

In addition, 83 state emergency responders are being positioned close to the affected areas for quick deployment. These teams are trained in medical aid, search and rescue and other emergency response activities.

PG&E has sent 150 workers to New York to help restore power. The Associated Press reports that the storm, that made landfall in New Jersey on Monday, resulted in fatalities in seven states and cut power to more than 7.4 million homes and businesses.
Florida is also sending teams in to help with power restoration and aid etc..kudo's to all the states that ARE sending crews and aid to the northeastand also the southern atlantic states, remembering NC and virginia got hit pretty ahrd as well
Quoting KarenRei:


Still waiting for an *actual* rebuttal to anything I wrote.

* AGW models generally predict increased snowfall at mid and high latitudes
* Warmer air holds more moisture than colder air
* A warmer modeled planet holds significantly more atmospheric moisture
* Air in the atmosphere circulates between warm areas and cold areas
* Water vapor tends to precipitate out when it cools.
* The highest odds of snowfall are just *above* freezing

Got anything? Anything? Bueller?


When literally every weather event is linked to global warming, how could anyone argue against it?

Global warming is the new religion.
Well, I'm kinda glad I forgot about this storm and quit following it. I knew it was coming in as a big one, but I had other things on my mind.


All I have to say about NHC if they didn't issue a hurricane warning, is that there needs to be an alternative definition of a "hurricane" if the classical definition doesn't fit, but everyone knows the storm is functionally equivalent to a hurricane.

Not issuing an official hurricane warning or equivalent for a storm like this just seems unprofessional, and there will probably be a congressional hearing about it, because some Governor, Mayor, or Senator is going to have a fit, and rightfully so.


This will be the second time this year (Isaac) where the NHC botched the degree of necessary warning in the PUBLIC MIND due to following too-narrow technicalities of man-made classification systems.

This was not a scientific or forecasting problem, it was a technicality. "Well, technically it's not a hurricane, so let's not give a warning..."


Wow. Their job is to save life and property, which I'm not blaming any deaths on them yet, but the average person who doesn't follow weather all the time NEEDS a specific degree of warning that is appropriate, regardless of the "technicalities" of storm type definitions.

Named system
Cat 1 winds, nearly cat 2 winds.
Cat 3 pressure
Cat 3 surge

Not a hurricane...Just wow...
I believe, based on what I’ve been learning from http://neven1.typepad.com/ that Sandy’s path was a direct traceable result of global warming. So much ice melted in the arctic that the ‘cold pole’ the center of coldness in the arctic shifted at least temporarily, from the remaining ice cap to Greenland. Greenland is or at least was the coldest spot left. This shifted the arctic high from the North Pole to Greenland and extended out into the North Atlantic. This created the blocking high people talk about.

At the same time, as the arctic melts the temperature gradient between the mid-latitudes and the arctic is reduced, or gets flatter. [That’s my own un-scientific term ] The reason I say flatter is because it helps explain the next illustration.

When a river is flowing down a steep or moderate gradient, it flows faster and tries to flow straighter. But when the land flattens out the river tends to wander. It starts creating these large loops back and forth.

So switching back to the atmosphere. As the temperature gradient gets flatter between the arctic and mid-latitudes, the jet stream starts to wander. It creates these big loops where it can scoop way down south and back up north, almost doubling back on itself.

And part of what made Sandy such a perfect storm is that the jet stream formed one of these loops just in the right spot so that it could grab Sandy and pull it back into shore. I believe the jet stream was actually curing back to the north-east at this point, almost doubling back on the point where it turned south.

So from that prospective both the blocking high and the kink in the jet stream where a result of a warming arctic which is the place that is showing global warming the most.

Hence I do believe global warming is driving the climate changes we continue to see. Humans are such creatures of habit, that they often respond with such anger, hatred, resistance, denial to changes forced upon them. I wish we could grow past such reactions and into more positive responses.


Quoting KarenRei:


Still waiting for an *actual* rebuttal to anything I wrote.

* AGW models generally predict increased snowfall at mid and high latitudes
* Warmer air holds more moisture than colder air
* A warmer modeled planet holds significantly more atmospheric moisture
* Air in the atmosphere circulates between warm areas and cold areas
* Water vapor tends to precipitate out when it cools.
* The highest odds of snowfall are just *above* freezing

Got anything? Anything? Bueller?

We're beating a dead horse I think. Bueller is out terrorizing the streets of Chicago with Mia Sara. You could be right. You may very well be right. But honestly I am going to begin focusing my energy now to rescue and recover and updates with the storm at present right now. Knowing the Doc, he will most certainly provide us with many opportunities for us to discuss climate implications down the road.

As I said before, proclaiming indefinitely that global warming caused Sandy is as baseless as saying GW didn't have ANY effect or contribution to Sandy at all.
1840. Grothar
Quoting jcpoulard:


Since 5h AM this morning it's continue to growth in size ... may be Valerie is in under construction.

->


I've been posting that for two days, but with all the excitement, no one noticed. Yo pa kwe sa-a.
Quoting TheThinker:
The March Storm of 1962

We get it, you're obsessed with linking these storms. Please stop posting the same thing over and over and over.
1843. LargoFl
...futurecast for friday...gee still around
1844. tramp96
Look at the 168hr Euro and GFS. Is that a Nor-Eastern?
1845. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
...futurecast for friday...gee still around
..hmm went poof lol
A flooded underground parking lot in NYC, a few blocks south of Wall Street.
Quoting tramp96:
Look at the 168hr Euro and GFS. Is that a Nor-Eastern?

Sure looks like it...

Quoting oracle28:


When literally every weather event is linked to global warming, how could anyone argue against it?

Global warming is the new religion.


Religion is based on faith, Global warming is based on physics, chemistry, and statistics...
Quoting Methurricanes:
Cleveland has 30moh winds 40mpoh gusts right off the lake.

What part of Cleveland are you looking at, winds seem to be picking up on the West side
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 78.4W
ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...ESE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA.
ABOUT 145 MILES...235KM...W OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.0 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COAST...FROM VIRGINIA TO MASSACHUSETTS. STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H. SANDY HAS
SLOWED IN FORWARD MOTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
TAKE A TURN TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL
MOVE INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.0 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
WIND...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN
SUBSIDING...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE COULD
STILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS APPROACHING HIGH TIDE. THE
WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...

PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELAWARE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JERSEY SHORE...1 TO 3 FT
NEW YORK NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS...1 TO 2 FT

DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS POSSIBLE.

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST EXPOSED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ACROSS DELAWARE...MARYLAND...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT OF 2 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MAINE.

SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR WESTERN MARYLAND. SNOWFALL
STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY...IN THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I don't understand why at first it was "there will be many more hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin" followed by "there will be fewer storms but with much greater intensity" followed again by "there will be storms that will impact regions not normally accustomed to seeing storms" Make up you mind.


Because science is just one person who keeps changing his mind and uses one single approach?

Modeling hurricane genesis rates in the Atlantic Basin is one of the most difficult things you can do. As you may have noticed, the number of hurricanes annually in the Atlantic ranges from zero to 15 and fluctuates wildly from year to year. As you may also have noticed, hurricane formation and development is a very nuanced, sensitive issue and the models for doing so are still evolving. Different people use different approaches at different point in time and try to reach conclusions.

The key thing is, that not only is there is a good deal of uncertainty, but it is *known* that there is said uncertainty in the results. Here's what Dr. Masters summed up once upon a time:

What does the IPCC say about stronger hurricanes?

The IPCC did a good job with their treatment of how global warming is affecting hurricanes. Here's their carefully worded statement on the observed changes:

There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones.

Later in the report, there is a table that shows that there has likely (>66% chance) been an increase in strong hurricanes since 1970 in some regions. It isn't mentioned, but the Atlantic is the region where this increase has been most notable. Also in that table is the assertion that it is more likely than not (>50% chance) that there has been a human contribution to this trend. This statement was leaked to the press yesterday, and resulted in speculation that the IPCC concluded that stronger hurricanes like Katrina were due to human-caused global warming. However, there is a footnote on the table, which wasn't part of yesterday's leaked press reports: "Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather than formal attribution studies."

In other words, the link between stronger hurricanes and global warming is a theory (expert judgment) and is not a conclusion of the IPCC. It is reasonable to theorize that some human contribution is responsible for the increase in strong hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1970, since this increase does correlate so well with the observed increase in sea surface temperatures. However, as mentioned in the earlier paragraph, it is difficult to make a strong statement saying that global warming is responsible for stronger hurricanes, due to the high natural variability of these storms and the poor observational record: "multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity." The IPCC table is confusing, and I believe it was a mistake to assign a probability of how likely a human contribution to hurricane intensity has been. There is not enough good science to make a sound judgment, and this section of the table should have been left blank.

Finally, the IPCC projection for how climate change will affect hurricanes in the future is pretty non-controversial, since they don't attach any numbers saying how large these effects will be


This is a *very* different statement from the IPCC's statements about other aspects of the climate system - ocean acidification, historic surface temperatures, future surface temperature trends, causes, etc. The various lines of data and approaches for modeling are in general much better understood and in accordance than tropical cyclone genesis, and yield a much higher confidence interval.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This is from a friend of mine...and is just one example of why your support of Portlight matters so much to so many. We're getting someone over there.

Can any New Yorkers help out Nick _______ & Alejandra ________??? Nick is on a vent, and they have no power in lower manhattan -

"Hello. Thanks everyone, for thinking of us. We, like many, finally lost power. Ventilator battery charging via FDNY generator going as planned but needs someone to take batteries up/down 12 flights. If anyone has any leads on portable power/charging/generator options, pl
ease advise. We have phones and feeding pump, suction machine, oxygen concentrator & wheelchair that could use power. We'll probably need some food soon. This could go on a while, so ANY help appreciated.

(Evacuating to hospital is very risky for us & esp. Nick, won't be considered unless all else fails, so please don't suggest it.) --"
Quoting yoboi:


you said the same thing after 2005 season with majors hitting every yr that did not pan out....
I didn't start here until November of 2009, so you're obviously confused.

Climate scientists are uncertain of the precise link between GW and tropical cyclones. In some ways, those cyclones should be made stronger; in others, less so. But just because they're uncertain about the exact connection between the two doesn't in any way mean they're uncertain that there is a connection; after all, medical scientists are still unsure of the exact mechanism by which aspirin works, but they're absolutely certain that it does work.

Try not to confuse the two...
I don't get the bashing of the NHC. First of all, they had Sandy dead-to-rights for days. And everyone I know was well aware of what was predicted. Maybe they shouldn't have worried about semantics at the last minute. But if you honestly didn't know about the danger than you are stupid, stubborn or both.
It's tragically unfortunate that climate change has been politicized in the first place. All we should be considering is the data and what it tells us... the science.

That science is pointing to more of what we've been experiencing recently. No matter what party/religion/sports team/beer you prefer... climate change is happening and we can't at this point stop what we've started, but we can still help mitigate its effects on our society.

This is entirely appropriate for a weather site. Sandy is the topic here, but what helps generate events like Sandy is pertinent as well. We can walk and chew gum at the same time, we can help those in need right now, and discuss what happened and why as well.

*Back to lurking
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for PostTropicalStormSandy @ 30Oct.12pm
38.3n73.1w 39.5n74.5w 40.3n76.3w has been re-evaluated&altered
38.3n73.0w 39.5n74.5w 39.9n76.4w 40.0n77.9w are now the most recent positions
PIT-Pittsburgh :: 8PN0-Chambersberg :: 9W8-Brogue :: AIY-AtlanticCity

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
Quoting oracle28:


Drought-caused by global warming
Storms-caused by global warming
Ice melt-caused by global warming
Floods-caused by global warming
Blizzards-caused by global warming
Not "caused"; that's a weak, lame, and highly overused straw man argument. But by its very definition, GW certainly plays a part in all of those.

(Although I should note: elementary school physics teaches us that warmer temperatures do, indeed, melt ice.)
1859. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
I didn't start here until November of 2009, so you're obviously confused.

Climate scientists are uncertain of the precise link between GW and tropical cyclones. In some ways, those cyclones should be made stronger; in others, less so. But just because they're uncertain about the exact connection between the two doesn't in any way mean they're uncertain that there is a connection; after all, medical scientists are still unsure of the exact mechanism by which aspirin works, but they're absolutely certain that it does work.

Try not to confuse the two...


wow comparing tropical cyclones with asprins to gw; you sure cleared the confusion....
Quoting Skyepony:


& they were. Anyone that looked at their NWS was told what to expect. If you went to NHC (even now) expecting a really cold hurricane you will still be directed to the proper info..turn on a tv & the message was there. I don't see where the message was lost & people failed to evacuate because no hurricane warning was ordered.

HPC is a little late on the 11am update..

Still spinning..


I'm confused about all the folks who are crying about hurricane warnings not being posted. Doesn't a hurricane warning indicate that hurricane conditions (sustained wind speed > 74 mph) are expected? Since that is a pretty rigid criteria and those conditions didn't happen, why were they wrong? Perhaps they should have issued a "really scary storm" warning.
We would be ridiculing the NHC for issuing a Hurricane Warning when post-tropical Sandy dropped this much snow. Hurricanes don't cause snow. People were warned hurricane winds were coming & thankfully others were told to prepare for snow..cause it fell plentifully..one place more than 2ft!
SNOWFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 11 AM EDT

..KENTUCKY...
LYNCH 3S 12.0
ELKO 1NW 9.0
BENHAM 3S 6.0

...MARYLAND...
REDHOUSE 26.0
GARRETT 26.0
DEEP CREEK LAKE 20.0
OAKLAND 12.0

...NORTH CAROLINA...
BAKERSVILLE 6N 8.0
FAUST 4NW 6.0
LANSING 6NW 5.0
CRESTON 4.0

...PENNSYLVANIA...
CHAMPION 4SE 13.0
MOUNT DAVIS 9.0
LAUREL SUMMIT 6.0

...VIRGINIA...
TAZEWELL 1E 5.0
CLINTWOOD 2WSW 4.0
BURKES GARDEN 3.0

...WEST VIRGINIA...
DAVIS 23.0
BAYARD 19.0
TERRA ALTA 1N 18.0
WEBSTER SPINGS 17.0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E 15.0
SHADY SPRING 14.0
MORGANTOWN 3SE 12.0
SNOWSHOE 1S 11.0
Quoting Grothar:


I've been posting that for two days, but with all the excitement, no one noticed. Yo pa kwe sa-a.


Hey, I noticed!

*now really back to lurking
1863. Dsntslp
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I have a question...with the onset of lower than normal temperatures here in south Florida for 3 days(lows in the 40's and 50's) wouldn't that help to cool the Atlantic and speed up a possible end of this years hurricane season? It seems to me it would, but I've been wrong a couple of other times in the past.
Bump.

Good question.
I have no answer but I am curious to hear the input of others so I am bumping it up for you. :)
Quoting Wiiilbur:


I'm confused about all the folks who are crying about hurricane warnings not being posted. Doesn't a hurricane warning indicate that hurricane conditions (sustained wind speed > 74 mph) are expected? Since that is a pretty rigid criteria and those conditions didn't happen, why were they wrong? Perhaps they should have issued a "really scary storm" warning.


Really scarey storm warnings were issued. Hurricane winds were expected & did happen. Note it was a smaller area than the area affected by snow.

WIND GUSTS
---------------

ISLIP NY 90 MPH
2 N TOMPKINSVILLE NJ 90 MPH
SURF CITY NJ 89 MPH
TUCKERTON NJ 88 MPH
1 N MONTCLAIR NJ 88 MPH
MADISON CT 85 MPH
PLUM ISLAND NY 84 MPH
CUTTYHUNK MA 83 MPH
DENNISVILLE 81 MPH
SANDY HOOK NJ 81 MPH
WELLFLEET MA 81 MPH
JFK NY 79 MPH
NEWARK NJ 78 MPH
ATLANTIC CITY NJ 77 MPH
GROTON CT 76 MPH
HARVEY CEDARS NJ 75 MPH
Quoting LargoFl:
from what i understand, it was a power transformer that blew up and the sparks etc..in that wind blew onto several house roofs and started the fires, dont think any building code could have prevented that IF..thats what did start those fires..in that wind, flames jumping from house to house..gee, im sure fire inspectors etc will be working for months, trying to find out the cause or causes..real bad time for those families that have to come back to find their house in ruins
Yeah, you (& Neo) are absolutely right. I read "fire" right after I posted...so my bad. Disregard. When I read it, I was thinking regular storm damage from wind, etc. for some reason.
Quoting Skyepony:


Really scarey storm warnings were issued. Hurricane winds were expected & did happen. Note it was a smaller area than the area affected by snow.

WIND GUSTS
---------------

ISLIP NY 90 MPH
2 N TOMPKINSVILLE NJ 90 MPH
SURF CITY NJ 89 MPH
TUCKERTON NJ 88 MPH
1 N MONTCLAIR NJ 88 MPH
MADISON CT 85 MPH
PLUM ISLAND NY 84 MPH
CUTTYHUNK MA 83 MPH
DENNISVILLE 81 MPH
SANDY HOOK NJ 81 MPH
WELLFLEET MA 81 MPH
JFK NY 79 MPH
NEWARK NJ 78 MPH
ATLANTIC CITY NJ 77 MPH
GROTON CT 76 MPH
HARVEY CEDARS NJ 75 MPH


I believe that the definition of a hurricane requires sustained winds of >74 miles per hour, not gusts. Find me the sustained winds that met the criteria.
Quoting yoboi:


wow comparing tropical cyclones with asprins to gw; you sure cleared the confusion....
Thanks! That's what I do best.
Yay, I'm back! It was a wild night, I spent a lot of time listening to the roof creak and struggle with the wind, but we came through with roof intact. Power went off about 9 pm but was back on at 10:45 this morning. Right now, we are 80 miles due south of Sandy and still getting wind and what I like to call "the spit of demons", rain, snow and sleet flying along at 30 MPH. It's 35 degrees, roads are treacherous due to downed trees and small stream flooding and the worst flooding is yet to come as all the water finally runs into the Potomac. Locally there are a few flood warnings on Patterson's Creek, and the Potomac is expected to flood from Harper's Ferry to DC. All in all, things have been worse, and I hope they get better and the flooding is minor.
wow...global warming still? How about millions without power...and will be for days on end...how bout global warming will cease for the next few days or possibly weeks since no one has any power...how about cow farts emit co2 as well and methane causes global warming...as long as population rises there will be emissions to the ozone regardless of what we do...more people, more methane gases from people and the animals we consume, the more electricity we use, regardless of whether it is renewable or fossil...no offense but I do NOT want a nuke plant anywhere near me, and since i am in a city we dont have the space for wind...that knocks us down to just a few options...i want safe power...i conserve where i can, hang out laundry,car pool,etc, however, arguing the semantics of what caused this storm is futile...it went against every law of physics there is as far as a hurricane goes and I lived through Hugo, i lived through the not having power for days/weeks/and longer in some of our areas...half of the reason that we know how strong storms are now...WE HAVE A SCALE!!! Before satelites, computers, etc...there was no way to gauge a storm except by guessing by the amount of damage...100 years ago, people on one coast would not have know about the other coast and what happened for days if not weeks and there would have been no pictures to look at..in fact...small islands getting hit would have gone unnoticed unless a ship was in the area...now...it is instant gratification so there is a place to put the blame...lets be realistic...it isnt just the emissions that is doing all of this...it is a way of life and technology that permits us to see it all now at an instant...not just global warming
Quoting Grothar:


I've been posting that for two days, but with all the excitement, no one noticed. Yo pa kwe sa-a.


snort... "I" watch, you were first ... again...
1871. BmtJedi
Quoting RTSplayer:
Well, I'm kinda glad I forgot about this storm and quit following it. I knew it was coming in as a big one, but I had other things on my mind.


All I have to say about NHC if they didn't issue a hurricane warning, is that there needs to be an alternative definition of a "hurricane" if the classical definition doesn't fit, but everyone knows the storm is functionally equivalent to a hurricane.

Not issuing an official hurricane warning or equivalent for a storm like this just seems unprofessional, and there will probably be a congressional hearing about it, because some Governor, Mayor, or Senator is going to have a fit, and rightfully so.




I agree with you, but here are some thoughts. There will be vocal comments no matter what decision the NWS makes. Any direction they go, they'll be criticized. In cases like this, especially for a governmental body, they are going to follow their documented protocol. They made the decision to follow their guidelines and allow local weather services to manage the alerts. It wasn't a bad idea. Most people pay more attention to local services than the NWS. I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing with them, but what can you do when you know any decision is going to be looked at negatively.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

What I don't understand is why some experts always change their mind with each ebb and flow in the wake of these disasters. I am certainly not refuting the theory that CC could have played some role or contributed in ways to these monster storms, but to change you predictions with the tides is unscientific. I don't understand why at first it was "there will be many more hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin" followed by "there will be fewer storms but with much greater intensity" followed again by "there will be storms that will impact regions not normally accustomed to seeing storms" Make up you mind and don't just make the rules as you go along. The theory supposedly has been around now for 100 years. Well then, plenty of time to make predictions and stick to them, don't you think?


the theory has been around, but understanding every detail or consequence of the "basic concept" of a theory is not very easy.

Take the theory of Relativity, for example, the concept that light's speed never changes isn't so hard, the math to describe the effects of it, and then TEST the theory, now that's complicated.

Take a look at SST anomalies from yesterday when the storm was offshore and near peak intensity.



Widespread pocket of 1C above average, with a sliver of 2C to 3C above average temperatures.

What's the rule on convection? 4.5% convection increase per degree temperature increase?


Forecasting the number and intensity of storms is pretty weird.

I forecasted 15 to 16 named storms and I forget how many majors, and I assumed it would be a "front heavy" season. This is 18.

My number came from simply taking 1/2 and 2/3rds of the average neutral year and adding 1/2 and 1/3rd of the average el nino year to each number respectively, but even that is just a statistical/climatological approach. i.e. forecasting what climatology does in a year where el nino should start at half or 2/3rds of the season.

It ended up being a bit low for named systems, and a total bust on SS wind scale majors, but not so big a bust on "storm surge major equivalents".


So over all, "scientific," but very little skill, yet I beat the guys with super computers using only a few minutes worth of thought, yet even my number was too low by 20% (so far).

Other times I've been totally and ridiculously wrong, even when I could likewise make a rational argument why it should have worked.

so I hope that demonstrates how different and difficult this field of meteorology and climatology really is when the real number of storms ended up being nearly twice the best scientific forecast, and 20% above my "pieced climatology" forecast.
moved.
The NHC needs to rethink how they name the warnings. TBH, the distinction between warm and cold core storms is meaningless to the lay person.

Once we replace Saffir-Simpson, it should be a no brainer to use the same scale for any ocean to land event, Nor'easter or Hurricane.

So instead of saying Hurricane Watch or Warning, or Gale/Wind etc. The main category classification should be based on surge anyways, but that's a different discussion.
Can anyone tell me how bad Long Island is and when do you think they will have power again? Thanks all!