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Sandy intensifying, headed towards Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2012

Tropical Storm Sandy is on the move northwards towards Jamaica, and is slowly intensifying. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds near 50 mph in the storm's northeast quadrant at 9 am EDT. The latest center fix, taken at 10:20 am EDT, found that Sandy's pressure had fallen 2 mb since early this morning, to 995 mb. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.82" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. and Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in an unusually moist environment with relative humidities above 80%, and is experiencing light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms have increased in areal extent, intensity, and organization this morning, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Sandy a potential threat to New England
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Thursday morning. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicted a 62% chance that Sandy's winds would increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. However, the Hurricane Hunters found this morning that the center at 5,000 feet was displaced 7 miles from the surface center, and there was no indication that Sandy was building an eyewall, so I expect that the earliest Sandy could become a hurricane is Wednesday morning. The 5 am EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 49% chance that Sandy would be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday and the storm will have to cross the rugged terrain of Cuba, which should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph. By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by 10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear. At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast. The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models. However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would arrive, with the 06Z NOGAPS model predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. The Tuesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with the majority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, but a substantial number predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Nineteen.

Tropical Depression Nineteen in the middle Atlantic
There has been little change to Tropical Depression Nineteen since it formed Monday in the middle Atlantic. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system on its west side is slowing development. TD 19 is moving north-northeast at 15 mph, and has moved over waters that are 27°C, a full degree cooler what the storm had to work with on Monday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, but is forecast to increase to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, on Wednesday. Ocean temperatures will drop below 26°C on Wednesday, so TD 19 has until Wednesday morning to get its act together and develop into Tropical Storm Tony. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Friday.


Video 1. Impressive weather video of the week: Baseball-sized hail splashing into a swimming pool during a hailstorm in South Africa on Saturday, October 20, 2012. The action gets interesting at about 1 minute into the video.

Tonight (October 23), PBS Frontline airs "Climate of Doubt", which examines the politics of climate change, and how a once generally accepted fact--that humans have contributed to, if not caused, global warming--has been dismissed by many politicians. It's on at 10 pm here in Michigan, but times may vary, depending upon the station.

Jeff Masters
dark clouds
dark clouds

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. 7544
morning all well sandy looks great looks like she took some jogs west overnight or even nnw looks like its going to be busy blog today get your coffee ready
Quoting beell:
Should be interesting to watch Sandy encounter her first test of adverse conditions today as dry air trying to wrap in and southwesterly shear go to work. So far, so good.

Approach of the upper trough, less than ideal conditions, and a date with land interaction may make it hard to lose her lop-sided-ness today.

She's trying dead hard, though. IMO one thing to consider is the increased forward speed... if we still had a crawling Sandy we'd be in some serious problems ...
1503. MahFL
Jamica is going to get nailed.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tony is far stronger than the NHC thinks, probably 65mph.
For a second I thought that was Sandy.... then I realized the orientation was off... lol
The fact of the matter is, both the ECMWF and NOGAPS show a Northeast hit. Last night, over half of the GFS ensemble members joined this camp in showing a NE hit. This morning, the operational GFS run still showed an out to sea solution. However, it has continually shifted west since yesterday.

We can see the trend and its not in the favor of NE residents, unfortunately. However, there is still plenty of time for things to change.
1506. nigel20
Good morning all! Sandy looks extremely impressive...it's going to be a very bad day for Jamaica.
Going to perk some good Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee. Hoping for some good news when I get back. Like shear and more shear. Can someone work on that for me please?!
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like Sandy is pulling NNW and "could possibly" pass just to west of Jamaica. Have to wait for the first fix from Recon
Rut Row. Folks in the Caymans should be watching this carefully...then, we in all of FL should keep an eye open. It is always a good thing to prep for the worst and hope for the best!
last system i remember the eye actually moving over jamaica was gilbert. it would seem the south coast is very vulnerable to this north moving system
Not a great day for Jamaica
1512. ncstorm
GMA said that Haiti should receive over 20 inches of rain from Sandy..just devastating..
1513. nigel20
It has been raining all Night in Kingston, but the very heavy stuff is still offshore.
1514. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The fact of the matter is, both the ECMWF and NOGAPS show a Northeast hit. Last night, over half of the GFS ensemble members joined this camp in showing a NE hit. This morning, the operational GFS run still showed an out to sea solution. However, it has continually shifted west since yesterday.

We can see the trend and its not in the favor of NE residents, unfortunately. However, there is still plenty of time for things to change.


NE?..things aint looking good for the entire east coast..
1515. barbamz
From HH

at: 16.1N 76.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.1 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,046 meters (~ 9,993 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.1 mb (~ 29.36 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 231° at 65 knots (From the SW at ~ 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 8.9°C (~ 48.0°F)
Dew Pt: 7.7°C (~ 45.9°F)
Peak (10s)
Flt. Lvl. Wind: 69 knots (~ 79.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
1516. air360
Quoting ncstorm:
GMA said that Haiti should receive over 20 inches of rain from Sandy..just devastating..


That may or may not be true (I dont know) but I can't help but chuckle at the fact that you (who I know to be very knowledgeable) are taking weather forecasts from GMA. lol

(Not being mean - just a nice little NC morning jab lol)
1517. barbamz
Sandy in full sun now:
1518. ncstorm
Quoting air360:


That may or may not be true (I dont know) but I can't help but chuckle at the fact that you (who I know to be very knowledgeable) are taking weather forecasts from GMA. lol


hey I like my Good Morning America..LOL..Sam Champion is no dummy..
1519. 7544
new watches are up
Quoting islander101010:
tail of sandy could cause the most life loss
I was looking at that earlier this morning.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like Sandy is pulling NNW and "could possibly" pass just to west of Jamaica. Have to wait for the first fix from Recon
I don't think so... Where do u estimate the coc is right now, petrol?
Post #1509.

Those models don't indicate a threat to the mid Atlantic and ne coast.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Post #1509.

Those models don't indicate a threat to the mid Atlantic and ne coast.

Correct. The Euro is the only outlier. And folks want the action, the story, the drama, so that's the one that get's the most attention and love right now. Okay maybe the NOGAPS too, but it's the er, uh, the NOGAPS.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like Sandy is pulling NNW and "could possibly" pass just to west of Jamaica. Have to wait for the first fix from Recon


Good morning

After the jog to the NNW last night Sandy has been running almost due N. If the current heading does not change it looks like it will come ashore very near or over Kingston. With the pressure down to 981 there is still time for the winds to come up.

At least the forward speed has picked up overnight which is a good thing. I hope everyone is battened down over there.
Recon splashed a 981 mb pressure.
Quoting barbamz:
Sandy in full sun now:
This is looking very impressive...
Quoting BahaHurican:
I was looking at that earlier this morning.

I don't think so... Where do u estimate the coc is right now, petrol?
It does like like she is moving a bit west of north. Looks like Kingston will miss a direct hit but will be on the dirty side. My son-in-law is in Mandeville now and I am praying they make it through alright. Some parts of Jamaica are very poor and I can imagine will receive extensive damage. Praying for no loss of life.
1527. nigel20
It's amazing that Jamaica has not seen seen any wind as yet, but that should change in a couple of hours.
Wow is Sandy looking great this morning. Does anyone have the latest microwave satellite picture?
1529. 7544
hurricane sandy by 11 am ?imo shes one at this hour
Quoting islander101010:
last system i remember the eye actually moving over jamaica was gilbert. it would seem the south coast is very vulnerable to this north moving system


Actually, the centre of Gustav moved directly over us in 2008.
mispost
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 12:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:48:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°34'N 76°56'W (16.5667N 76.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 99 miles (159 km) to the S (185°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,940m (9,646ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 60° at 54kts (From the ENE at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, open wnw
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:59:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL

Very large eye

000
URNT12 KNHC 241220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 24/11:48:00Z
B. 16 deg 34 min N
076 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2940 m
D. 60 kt
E. 322 deg 17 nm
F. 060 deg 54 kt
G. 322 deg 22 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 9 C / 3042 m
J. 14 C / 3049 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. open wnw
M. C48
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT SE QUAD 11:59:30Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
;
Sandy
1535. JRRP
Sandy esta tomando la ruta que exactamente dije.... la parte derecha de los modelos... ustedes ven ... pero es que no se llevan
y todo el mundo diciendo ..oeste de jamaica oeste de jamaica
What happen to the storm the Gfs was developing in the Eastern Pacific?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Correct. The Euro is the only outlier. And folks want the action, the story, the drama, so that's the one that get's the most attention and love right now. Okay maybe the NOGAPS too, but it's the er, uh, the NOGAPS.

Why do you just keep conveniently ignore the fact that the GFS has shifted west since yesterday and a majority of its ensembles take it into the NE?
I did a blog update on Sandy, check it out.

I'm going to school, be everyone.
1539. nigel20
Quoting HurricaneJamaica:


Actually, the centre of Gustav moved directly over us in 2008.

Hey HJ! It's looking vert bad for Jamaica at this time.
1541. AztecCe
Looks as if the East Coast could miss a hit. Still might get some strong wind and rain. According to my areas 10 day forcast, we are still forcasted for heavy rain and wind on Sunday and Monday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do you just keep conveniently ignore the fact that the GFS has shifted west since yesterday and a majority of its ensembles take it into the NE?


The GFS and the CMC are now onto the "spinup a noreaster behind sandy" bandwagon, and the gfs low is quite well placed with regards to the Canadian cold air, leading to snow in michigan and the ohio valleys, as far south as NC mountains. the 540 line comes into north GA and AL, but i would disregard the streak of snow the GFS shows for Missouri, Tennessee, and Alabama:



1543. SLU
Sandy looks like a hurricane now ...

24/1145 UTC 16.6N 77.1W T4.0/4.0 SANDY -- Atlantic

... and SAB agrees.

1544. lippy
BTV local area forecast discussion calls it a potential "very high end event" for the Northeast if it pans out like the Euro says. They have begun to increase forecast pops for Sunday and beyond.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey HJ! It's looking vert bad for Jamaica at this time.


Yes it is. Right now though we are just getting a light drizzle and barely no wind. All that should change very shortly.
We got some light showers last night over New Providence, but the first downpour of the day just started a minute ago... it's raining pretty heavily.
Quoting SLU:
Sandy looks like a hurricane now ...

24/1145 UTC 16.6N 77.1W T4.0/4.0 SANDY -- Atlantic

... and SAB agrees.



But recon does not.
1548. pottery
Good Morning ?

Not for Jamaica !

Stay safe you all.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


But recon does not.

Close, but not quite there yet. 70 knot flight level and 60 knot surface.
1550. nigel20
Quoting HurricaneJamaica:


Yes it is. Right now though we are just getting a light drizzle and barely no wind. All that should change very shortly.

Yes indeed.
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormSandy @ 24Oct.12pm

KIN-Kingston :: NBW-Guantanamo :: CAY-LesCayes :: UMA-Maisi

The bottom right unlabeled dot is where TD.18 became TropicalStormSandy
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Sandy's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within ~23miles or 37kilometres) to an inhabited coastline.
23Oct.12pm: TS.Sandy had been headed toward passage over BonPas,Haiti (left,CYAdumbbell)
23Oct.06pm: TS.Sandy had been heading toward passage 23miles(37.8kilometres)WNWest of CapDame-Marie (left,JEEdumbbell)
24Oct.12am: TS.Sandy had been headed toward passage between Imias and Cajobabo after passing ~28miles(45kilometres)SSEast of Jamaica
24Oct.06am: TS.Sandy was heading toward a 8:30pm passage over Albion
24Oct.12pm: TS.Sandy was heading toward a 8:30pm passage over Albion in ~8hours from now

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
Ok. So recon ain't supporting an upgrade. Sandy traverses over the rugged terrain of Jamaica, then gets thrashed by Cuba. What is she going to look like when she emerges on the Bahama side. Could we be looking at a minimal tropical storm? A naked swirl?

Stay tuned. *Cues weather channel on the 8's music...*
The Euro shows a better pull on the arctic air this run, leading to some snow in PA and NY, and reaching down to MD and even glancing DC. Still isn't nearly as heavy as some previous runs were.
Washingtonian still won't like these.

150hrs:


162 hrs:
I'd like to see a few more passes from the recon before saying it is/isn't a hurricane.
1555. LargoFl
NAEFS model at 72 hours, going to be a wet and windy weekend along florida and georgia's coastlines............
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The Euro shows a better pull on the arctic air this run, leading to some snow in PA and NY, and reaching down to MD and even glancing DC. Still isn't nearly as heavy as some previous runs were.
Washingtonian still won't like these.

150hrs:


162 hrs:


Yeah well I live inside that dark green in western NY... what is the key for this map?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



You're hurting my ears Taz.

Taz is becoming the old man of the blog, always complaining about little things.


ropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2012 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 16:47:30 N Lon : 76:55:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 979.3mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.0

Center Temp : -81.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb
The EMWCF is still showing the same apocalyptic superstorm scenario. And the GFS shifted NW a tad.

Get ready for Snowicane Sandy guys!
1559. LargoFl
Melbourne FL Hazardous outlook..............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT THE STORM CENTER WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE
OCCURRING ABOUT 250 MILES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS...
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MARINE AND COASTAL EFFECTS AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PASSES BY LATE THIS WEEK. LOCAL IMPACTS
SHOULD PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL INCLUDE...STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST...LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 8 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE...AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING 20 TO 25
FEET OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION...SUCH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE OPTIMAL
FOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH SURF MAY PRODUCE RUNUP TO THE DUNE
LINE AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALSO...RAIN SQUALLS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE AND COASTAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

KELLY
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The EMWCF is still showing the same apocalyptic superstorm scenario. And the GFS shifted NW a tad.

Get ready for Snowicane Sandy guys!

If that happens, is that because of AGW?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

If that happens, is that because of AGW?


LOL!
systems can strengthen quickly in the bahamas
Quoting islander101010:
systems can strengthen quickly in the bahamas

Not if they are a horrific mess.
1564. LargoFl
NAEFS model at 138 hours,going to be a stormy week up there..
1565. AztecCe
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The EMWCF is still showing the same apocalyptic superstorm scenario. And the GFS shifted NW a tad.

Get ready for Snowicane Sandy guys!
hope so
well how about that! all Atlantic depressions continue to intensify into storms..... perfect 100% record. Good year IMO since it was forecast to be a average/slightly below average season.
I will say this at least. Satellite presentation has been absolutely impressive now!

1568. JRRP
1569. 7544
nhc cone shifted east some
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The EMWCF is still showing the same apocalyptic superstorm scenario. And the GFS shifted NW a tad.

Get ready for Snowicane Sandy guys!

Will the Weather Channel rename Sandy, Athena or keep using Sandy, if Sandy brings a dump of snow?
1571. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...HIGH WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST. THE STORM MAY VERY WELL JUST MOVE OUT TO SEA...AND HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.

AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT...SINCE
SANDY IS STILL IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ARE STILL AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON SANDY...AND MONITOR
THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$
1572. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The GFS and the CMC are now onto the "spinup a noreaster behind sandy" bandwagon, and the gfs low is quite well placed with regards to the Canadian cold air, leading to snow in michigan and the ohio valleys, as far south as NC mountains. the 540 line comes into north GA and AL, but i would disregard the streak of snow the GFS shows for Missouri, Tennessee, and Alabama:





Don't know... Don't see much of an accumulation risk, but with the nighttime lows hovering around the freezing mark once the front passes, a flake or two is not out of the question...
Quoting AussieStorm:

Will the Weather Channel rename Sandy, Athena or keep using Sandy, if Sandy brings a dump of snow?


Sandthena?
1574. AztecCe
Poor Jamacia
Quoting BahaHurican:
I was looking at that earlier this morning.

I don't think so... Where do u estimate the coc is right now, petrol?


Looking at Vis sat loops I would say around 16.8N/77.5W, will have to for the Recon fix to be sure!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

If that happens, is that because of AGW?
No. Because even though the oceans are currently experiencing extra warming equivalent to about 400,000 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs every day, all that extra energy magically and against the laws of physics vanishes into thin air and can therefore have absolutely no effect whatsoever on the climate.
1577. LargoFl
GFS at 72 hours,after this its up in the air where she goes
1578. ncstorm


Tony Montana..Tony Montana..

Quoting HurricaneJamaica:


Yes it is. Right now though we are just getting a light drizzle and barely no wind. All that should change very shortly.
It's very calm here in Acadia (near Barbican)...the calm before the storm.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looking at Vis sat loops I would say around 16.8N/77.5W, will have to for the Recon fix to be sure!
B. 16 deg 34 min N
076 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2940 m
D. 60 kt
/blockquote>
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. Because even though the oceans are currently experiencing extra warming equivalent to about 400,000 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs every day, all that extra energy magically and against the laws of physics vanishes into thin air and can therefore have absolutely no effect whatsoever on the climate.


*cough* underwater volcanoes *cough*
Quoting ncstorm:


Tony Montana..Tony Montana..


Yay, Tony!
1583. LargoFl
October 24, 2012 at 5 a.m.

BULLETIN No: 13 STRONGER TROPICAL STORM SANDY HEADING TOWARDS JAMAICA …HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT

STRONGER TROPICAL STORM SANDY HEADING TOWARDS JAMAICA …HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT



METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, JAMAICA
Division of the Ministry of Water, Land, Environment and Climate Change
Telephone: 876-924-8055/924-8404

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 – 5:00 a.m.

BULLETIN No: 13


STRONGER TROPICAL STORM SANDY HEADING TOWARDS JAMAICA
…HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT


The Meteorological Service has continued the HURRICANE WARNING for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Sandy increases in strength and moves faster towards the island.

The following dangerous effects of a hurricane are, therefore, expected to affect Jamaica in under 24 hours:

• Dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force;
• Average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) or higher;
.
At 4:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Sandy was located near Latitude 16.3 degrees North, Longitude 77.0 degrees West, or about 190 kilometres (120 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica or 60 kilometres (35 miles) east-southeast of the Pedro Cays.

Sandy is moving towards the north near 22 km/h (14 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue today and tomorrow with a gradual increase in forward speed. The centre of Sandy is now forecast to reach Jamaica’s southern coast this afternoon, then make its way across the island from south to north.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 km/h (70 mph), with higher gusts, and additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sandy is expected to become a hurricane before reaching Jamaica. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 220 kilometres (140 miles), primarily east of the centre.

Residents should now expect 150-300 mm (6-12 in) of rainfall across the island with highest amounts over eastern parishes and higher elevations. This will produce extensive flooding and trigger dangerous landslides.

On the current forecast track…Winds will increase to tropical storm force this morning, initially coming out of the east. As Sandy makes landfall near Kingston during the mid-afternoon, eastern parishes will experience hurricane-force winds out of the south while central and western parishes will feel northerly winds of slightly lower intensity. Districts in the path of the hurricane’s centre will experience a change in wind direction from easterly to westerly as Sandy makes its way to the north coast over eastern St. Mary this evening.

Storm surges of 1-2 metres (3-7 feet) should be expected over coastal areas between Kingston and Morant Point as Sandy approaches; however, above-normal seas could also be experienced along the north coast from Port Maria westward as the system departs this evening.

All small craft operators are advised to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Sandy will be issued at 8:00 a.m. today.
egt
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. Because even though the oceans are currently experiencing extra warming equivalent to about 400,000 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs every day, all that extra energy magically and against the laws of physics vanishes into thin air and can therefore have absolutely no effect whatsoever on the climate.


You can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW. That's weather. Not climate. With climate, you must look at a period of at least 30 years or more to draw a conclusion that the frequency of powerful storms are occurring. And so far within the last 30 years, nothing has suggested that.

Now if snowmaggen does pan out with this storm, sure, folks will be pointing the dirty end of the stick at AGW...but that's rather unscientific, wouldn't ya think? ;-]
1585. ncstorm
the 6z GFS Ensembles spread..look for shift west with the ensembles..this is beginning to look like an east coast rider










Quoting TomballTXPride:


You can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW. That's weather. Not climate. With climate, you must look at a period of at least 30 years or more to draw a conclusion that the frequency of powerful storms are occurring. And so far within the last 30 years, nothing has suggested that.

Now if snowmaggen does pan out with this storm, sure, folks will be pointing the dirty end of the stick at AGW...but that's rather unscientific, wouldn't ya think? ;-]


Stop Global Warming because it wont stop snowing outside!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Stop Global Warming because it wont stop snowing outside!

You're right!!!
Some disturbing news for the Northeastern folks.. The EURO is no longer the outlier.

Quoting reedzone:
Some disturbing news for the Northeastern folks.. The EURO is no longer the outlier.


Are you gonna fire up the REED model?
Sandy is poised to take off in intensity before land interaction slows her down.

Here is a recent SSMIS pass:

37 GHz Color:



And here is 91 GHz Color:



37 GHz shows more of the lower level structure while 91 GHz shows more of the mid-level structure, to put it roughly.
Tony is neglected out in the Atlantic...Sandy f__ outta here...
Sandy has definitely got 'that look', and I see the NHC track has shifted more east overnight...thursday/friday here is going to suck.
1596. hydrus
Man am I glad that Sandy did not head for the gulf. Bad would not suffice to describe it.
Here is a 4 panel to compare conventional IR imagery with microwave imagery:

1598. LargoFl
Quoting reedzone:
Some disturbing news for the Northeastern folks.. The EURO is no longer the outlier.

yes I am afraid things are changing, still time to see what happens but it is not looking good for the northeast, we'll see come saturday what the models say,but the northeast is used to bad storms this time of year, but they usually come from the west or canada..coming from the coastline is a bit unusual i guess.
Tony is being under appreciated at the NHC.


Quoting TomballTXPride:

Are you gonna fire up the REED model?


Naa, I left this one alone.. I think I'm agreeing more with Levis idea though, unfortunately. The negative NAO and pattern supports no recurve.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tony is being under appreciated at the NHC.



Always has... they were 24hrs late in upgrading him to a TS.
1602. LargoFl
Quoting hydrus:
Man am I glad that Sandy did not head for the gulf. Bad would not suffice to describe it.
ditto on that
Quoting TomballTXPride:


You can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW. That's weather. Not climate. With climate, you must look at a period of at least 30 years or more to draw a conclusion that the frequency of powerful storms are occurring. And so far within the last 30 years, nothing has suggested that.
Perhaps nothing suggests that in certain ideological circles, but in the real world--that scary place where there are consequences to our fossil fuel addiction--there is plenty to suggest that. For instance, this just-released report from Munich Re, one of the world's largest re-insurers:

"Climate­-driven changes are already evident over the last few decades for severe thunderstorms, for heavy precipitation and flash flood­ing, for hurricane activity, and for heatwave, drought and wild­-fire dynamics in parts of North America."

worse
You are correct in stating that one "...can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW." One can, however, look at the long-term trend of extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity and make that case, as it's the only possibility that exists.
Central Dense Overcast (CDO) building and expanding over the center now, with hints of an eye on visible:

1605. LargoFl
Quoting ExumaMET:
Sandy has definitely got 'that look', and I see the NHC track has shifted more east overnight...thursday/friday here is going to suck.
where sandy is going, will the islands that need rain, get some from her?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tony is being under appreciated at the NHC.



Conservative 45 knots from the NHC.

AL, 19, 2012102412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 467W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 40, 0, 1010, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TONY, M,
Quoting AussieStorm:

Always has... they were 24hrs late in upgrading him to a TS.
Tony looks good and I wouldn't be surprised if he to makes a run of hurricane status.He is in the area where storms for some odd reason have found better conditions than the actual tropical atlantic.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes I am afraid things are changing, still time to see what happens but it is not looking good for the northeast, we'll see come saturday what the models say,but the northeast is used to bad storms this time of year, but they usually come from the west or canada..coming from the coastline is a bit unusual i guess.


Again as I stated last night. Nothing to panic about yet, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to start looking over Hurricane plans if you live in the Northeast. Buy some batteries, lights, bread, water, ect.. Before the stores may be completely packed. If it ends up doing what some of the models show, this isn't your typical Noreaster... It is "The Perfect Storm II"
Quoting washingtonian115:
Tony looks good and I wouldn't be surprised if he to makes a run of hurricane status.He is in the area where storms for some odd reason have found better conditions than the actual tropical atlantic.

The SHIPS says it has about 24 hours left to strengthen, despite the fact that wind shear has increased to 25 knots.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Perhaps nothing suggests that in certain ideological circles, but in the real world--that scary place where there are consequences to our fossil fuel addiction--there is plenty to suggest that. For instance, this just-released report from Munich Re, one of the world's largest re-insurers:

"Climate­-driven changes are already evident over the last few decades for severe thunderstorms, for heavy precipitation and flash flood­ing, for hurricane activity, and for heatwave, drought and wild­-fire dynamics in parts of North America."

worse
You are correct in stating that one "...can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW." One can, however, look at the long-term trend of extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity and make that case, as it's the only possibility that exists.

Sounds like a company trying to make money. That's what insurance does.
1612. sar2401
Quoting 7544:
hurricane sandy by 11 am ?imo shes one at this hour

Sure. As I recall, last evening you said huricane by Dmax this morning, which is well past. If you keep saying the same thing for each update, you will eventually be right.
1613. Thrawst
I believe they should issue a Hurricane Watch for the NW and central Bahamas. This thing could go off between Jamaica and Cuba.
Quoting LargoFl:
where sandy is going, will the islands that need rain, get some from her?


It looks like Sandy is going to be moving awfully far to the east of Florida for even the East Coast to see tropical storm conditions, especially considering the shift eastward overnight.
Who turned this blog into Climategate? Enough please, We have Dangerous "Sexy" Sandy to worry about. You can talk about Sandy and if she is part of AGW after the danger from her is over. Unfortunately People will die from Sandy.
Henry Margusity doesn't believe the storm will be historic.. wow.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tony is being under appreciated at the NHC.


Really? Are you appreciated hurricanes? What a crazy world.
1618. LargoFl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what is amazing is that once she exits cuba, she will grow in size, More than she is now local mets are saying, spreading the winds outward as she becomes extratropical in nature
eye has a chance to miss jamaica to its east. might wobble around the island
Quoting sar2401:

Sure. As I recall, last evening you said huricane by Dmax this morning, which is well past. If you keep saying the same thing for each update, you will eventually be right.


Looking at the micro passes and satellite, Sandy is probably a 75 mph. storm.
1621. LargoFl
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


It looks like Sandy is going to be moving awfully far to the east of Florida for even the East Coast to see tropical storm conditions, especially considering the shift eastward overnight.
for us here that is some good news alright..thanks
Quoting LargoFl:
where sandy is going, will the islands that need rain, get some from her?


None of the central bahamas really needs any rain...It'll be welcomed sure, the last month has been pretty dry, and we don't face any flooding issues unless this woman decides to turn into Noel 2.0...I measured 28" of rain from that over 3 days.
1623. barbamz
still not ...

Time: 13:17:00Z
Coordinates: 17.3667N 76.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.5 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,057 meters (~ 10,030 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 995.1 mb (~ 29.39 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 138 at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 8.6C (~ 47.5F)
Dew Pt: 5.1C (~ 41.2F)

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)


SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)

(highest winds so far in the actual pass from HH into Sandy)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Conservative 45 knots from the NHC.

AL, 19, 2012102412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 467W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 40, 0, 1010, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TONY, M,

Conservative cause they only have Satellite obs to look at. If they sent a HH'er into Tony they might find higher winds.
1626. LargoFl
Quoting reedzone:


Again as I stated last night. Nothing to panic about yet, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to start looking over Hurricane plans if you live in the Northeast. Buy some batteries, lights, bread, water, ect.. Before the stores may be completely packed. If it ends up doing what some of the models show, this isn't your typical Noreaster... It is "The Perfect Storm II"
I remember a very bad storm like this back in NYC around the end of the 60's, maybe 68 or 69..I still remember those winds to this day whew
I think it's still impressive to say the least that we have had once again 19 named storms.Just amazing.Has this ever happened in any other time period in the Atlantic basin?.Just imagine this season was suppose to be average to below average.
1629. LargoFl
Quoting ExumaMET:


None of the central bahamas really needs any rain...It'll be welcomed sure, the last month has been pretty dry, and we don't face any flooding issues unless this woman decides to turn into Noel 2.0...I measured 28" of rain from that over 3 days.
ok ty stay safe out there ok
1630. sar2401
Quoting Neapolitan:
Perhaps nothing suggests that in certain ideological circles, but in the real world--that scary place where there are consequences to our fossil fuel addiction--there is plenty to suggest that. For instance, this just-released report from Munich Re, one of the world's largest re-insurers:

"Climate­-driven changes are already evident over the last few decades for severe thunderstorms, for heavy precipitation and flash flood­ing, for hurricane activity, and for heatwave, drought and wild­-fire dynamics in parts of North America."

worse
You are correct in stating that one "...can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW." One can, however, look at the long-term trend of extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity and make that case, as it's the only possibility that exists.

Wrong time for this discussion but really, Nea, you wouldn't accept a thing that came from Munich Re if it didn't support your position. Look at the source for their graph. Talk about self serving.
1631. LargoFl
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
could be my eyes but in that pic of sandy she seems to be taking a westward jog, aiming right for Jamaica
Quoting Neapolitan:
Perhaps nothing suggests that in certain ideological circles, but in the real world--that scary place where there are consequences to our fossil fuel addiction--there is plenty to suggest that. For instance, this just-released report from Munich Re, one of the world's largest re-insurers:

"Climate­-driven changes are already evident over the last few decades for severe thunderstorms, for heavy precipitation and flash flood­ing, for hurricane activity, and for heatwave, drought and wild­-fire dynamics in parts of North America."

worse
You are correct in stating that one "...can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW." One can, however, look at the long-term trend of extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity and make that case, as it's the only possibility that exists.


We'll its not "the only" possibility, but its the best one we have for now, and although tornadic events have not increased, and we havent had enough time to say hurricanes have increased, there have been a few more floods and heatwaves.
1633. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think it's still impressive to say the least that we have had once again 19 named storms.Just amazing.Has this ever happened in any other time period in the Atlantic basin?.Just imagine this season was suppose to be average to below average.


making a forecast about the number of hurricanes to form in April when hurricane season doesn't even start until June is just like working for a carnival and reading people's fortune..

El Nino who?
Quoting sar2401:

Wrong time for this discussion but really, Nea, you wouldn't accept a thing that came from Munich Re if it didn't support your position. Look at the source for their graph. Talk about self serving.

It is time to get back to Sandy. I just get a kick out of the ones that try to get the ball rolling theorizing that potential Sandy is another reason we must move away from fossil fuels because of AGW. LOL. I fell for it and took the bait, I'll admit.

But back to our storm.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think it's still impressive to say the least that we have had once again 19 named storms.Just amazing.Has this ever happened in any other time period in the Atlantic basin?.Just imagine this season was suppose to be average to below average.


I bet the forecasters that forecasted that are glad they are not in Italy.
Quoting ncstorm:


making a forecast about the number of hurricanes to form in April when hurricane season doesn't even start until June is just like working for a carnival and reading people's fortune..

El Nino who?
At first it did look like El nino was coming on strong but the PDO has put it in it's place.I kinda did want it to form so I can have a cold snowy winter..
Quoting LargoFl:
could be my eyes but in that pic of sandy she seems to be taking a westward jog, aiming right for Jamaica


My eyes see due north. I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder.
1638. Zedjam
In Kingston, now...light rain, no wind yet. I will be tuned to my Davis weather station to monitor the wind & rainfall. Lets hope its not too bad.
1639. MTWX
Quoting Neapolitan:
Perhaps nothing suggests that in certain ideological circles, but in the real world--that scary place where there are consequences to our fossil fuel addiction--there is plenty to suggest that. For instance, this just-released report from Munich Re, one of the world's largest re-insurers:

"Climate­-driven changes are already evident over the last few decades for severe thunderstorms, for heavy precipitation and flash flood­ing, for hurricane activity, and for heatwave, drought and wild­-fire dynamics in parts of North America."

worse
You are correct in stating that one "...can't look at a single weather event to make a case for AGW." One can, however, look at the long-term trend of extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity and make that case, as it's the only possibility that exists.


Just to play Devils Advocate...

There are a few things that could poke holes in that statement...

Let's see... What else has happened over the last "few decades"?

- larger population spread across a larger area= higher chance people are affected by weather events

- more accurate weather instruments

-satellites

- better communications= easier for people to report their weather

;)
1640. LargoFl
if..I remember right..1 inch of rain equals 1 foot of snow, now IF she "does" go to new england im hoping its not cold enough there for snow......................
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Sounds like a company trying to make money. That's what insurance does.
Munich Re insures hundreds of billions of dollars worth of infrastructure. Its goal is to be aware of risk. Climate change is increasing that risk. Period.

(Of course, if you don't wish to believe Munich Re--as is your right--you can always choose to look at NOAA's Climate Extremes Index; it'll show you pretty much the same thing.)
1642. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
At first it did look like El nino was coming on strong but the PDO has put it in it's place.I kinda did want it to form so I can have a cold snowy inter..


Yeah..thats the only thing that was disappointing..I was looking forward to the snow as well
1643. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
for us here that is some good news alright..thanks

Quite possible, and I suspect the HH's will find a hurricane during the next pass. However, saying that a storm will become a hurricane with each update over the last 24 hours...well, even a blind squirrel finds a nut. :)

Edit: Have no idea how this ended up as a response to you, Largo. It was supposed to be in response to a comment from Reed.
Tony getting his looks in check so he can attract Sandy.That's probably why the GFS keeps forecasting her to go out to sea so they can both be together.lol.
Unbelievable.... this is going to be crazy , hope don't happen...
977.3 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg)

SFMR:

65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)
Enough of the Global Warming/Climate Change.. We are dealing with something really serious and possibly deadly right now, and possibly next week. Save the global warming talk till after Sandy is gone.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
977.3 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg)

SFMR:

65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)


We have hurricane Sandy
1649. LargoFl
Quoting Zedjam:
In Kingston, now...light rain, no wind yet. I will be tuned to my Davis weather station to monitor the wind & rainfall. Lets hope its not too bad.
stay safe down there
Quoting AussieStorm:


I bet the forecasters that forecasted that are glad they are not in Italy.


Wow, no kidding.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
977.3 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg)

SFMR:

65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)


There's your sign...
They were found in an area of high rain rates, though one would expect high rain rates in the eyewall of a hurricane.
Do we officially have Sandy.
4mb drop between fixes. RI may be starting.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It is time to get back to Sandy. I just get a kick out of the ones that try to get the ball rolling theorizing that potential Sandy is another reason we must move away from fossil fuels because of AGW. LOL. I fell for it and took the bait, I'll admit.

But back to our storm.
Back to the storm...but it was actually you who started the AGW comments and you baited him.
1657. K8eCane
WELL DARN...The only thing i feel really SAFE thinking right now is that Sandy aint going nowhere near TEXAS LOL
A few Weather stations to keep watch on on Jamaica.

Negril Aerodrome

ORANGE RIVER - Ministry of Agriculture

Tinson Pen Aerodrome
1659. LargoFl
Quoting sar2401:

Quite possible, and I suspect the HH's will find a hurricane during the next pass. However, saying that a storm will become a hurricane with each update over the last 24 hours...well, even a blind squirrel finds a nut. :)

Edit: Have no idea how this ended up as a response to you, Largo. It was supposed to be in response to a comment from Reed.


I didn't mention Sandy becoming a Hurricane on every update.. You're just putting words in my mouth.
1661. JLPR2
2hrs ago.
Hmm...


Is it a hurricane yet? XD
1662. LargoFl
Quoting K8eCane:
WELL DARN...The only thing i feel really SAFE thinking right now is that Sandy aint going nowhere near TEXAS LOL
LOL good one
Quoting MTWX:


Just to play Devils Advocate...

There are a few things that could poke holes in that statement...

Let's see... What else has happened over the last "few decades"?

- larger population spread across a larger area= higher chance people are affected by weather events

- more accurate weather instruments

-satellites

- better communications= easier for people to report their weather

;)
The Munich Re study isn't talking about impacts on civilization; it's a simple scientific study of the number of events affecting the nation over the past 32 years. It's extremely unlikely that the observed increase in floods, droughts, heat waves, blizzards, large wildfires, and so on over that period is due in any way to improved communications. After all, there's been weather radar that whole time, and weather satellites, and CB radios, and ham radios, and telephones--and even w-a-a-a-y back in the 1980s, there were no unexplored/unsettled parts of the contiguous U.S.

In short: the observed increase in severe weather events is real and measurable.
1664. air360
Interesting discussion from our local NWS in Newport NC
=======================
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...concern is growing for significant storm system
to affect coastal eastern NC this weekend.


Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to become a hurricane today...and
move northward across Cuba tonight. Most models are positioning
the storm near or just north of the northern Bahamas Friday
afternoon and evening. After this point there is still some
uncertainty on how the storm will evolve and whether it will start
becoming extra tropical...as tropical systems tend to do north of
this latitude this time of year. Medium range model suite in
general agreement on deepening middle Continental U.S. Long wave trough this
weekend which will act to draw the system northeastward and off
the NC coast late this weekend.


There is still model uncertainty however regarding how close
Sandy gets to the NC coastline. The operational GFS has been
consistently taking the storm in a northeastward direction and
having its closest approach to the coast roughly at 300 miles. The
European model (ecmwf) on the other hand has also been consistent run-to-run for
the last several days and has been taking the storm more north
north eastward and bringing it to within about 200 miles of the
coast. One important thing to note is the amplitude of the
forecasted long wave trough expected to dig across the
central/eastern Continental U.S.. the European model (ecmwf) ensemble mean...along with the
NCEP and CMC ensemble means are more in line with a more amplified
trough as indicated by the operational European model (ecmwf)...which is plausible
given the current blocking pattern in Greenland. This in turn
would favor a more north northeastward track and therefore a
slightly closer approach to the NC coast as the European model (ecmwf) has been
alluding to.


Several important points to note this weekend. This event looks to
be a long duration storm affecting much of the coastal waters
with at least gale force winds...large battering waves... and
heavy rains. Even though the storm is forecasted to remain east of
the waters...the large wind field associated with the storm as it
becomes extratropical will act to have a prolonged strong
northerly fetch as it creeps up the coastline. This will allow for
large breaking waves to produce beach erosion across the northern
Outer Banks...and significant coastal flooding problems across
southern and eastern Pamlico Sound. Should the closer-to-the coast
solution verify...copious rainfall on the order of 8 inches or
more would be likely.


Residents of eastern NC are urged to pay close attention to this
developing potential high impact situation as future forecasts
are fine tuned and prepare to take necessary precautions.
===========================
1665. LargoFl
The only thing I've been mentioning was the possibility of a superstorm for the Northeast. I never predicted a time, or every update that Sandy would become a Hurricane. I actually just only mentioned this morning that she is probably a Hurricane now based on microwave passes and satellite.
Quoting WatcherCI:
Back to the storm...but it was actually you who started the AGW comments and you baited him.

Wrong. I didn't bait anyone.
I think this Weather Station is broken.

Ken Jones Aerodrome
Says it's -7C and wind is E @ 46mph highest gust was 62mph.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do we officially have Sandy.


hurricane sandy you mean?
not officially...

but your party is in worse and worse jeopardy....ECMWF wants you to get 1-2inches of snow

GFS has you on the edge with the low that spins up behind Sandy:
So looking at my local forecast this morning, they are predicting wind gusts here (in Palm Beach County) of around 50 mph. That should be interesting with all of the shoddily designed campaign signs littering the medians of every intersection.
I Think sar2401 is confusing me with what I did during Isaac, calling that a Hurricane every update.. I admit to that and I was wrong.
I would love if people save the GW debates for when we don't have a life threatning situation for millions of people for not only in the caribbean but along the southeast/mid-atlantic/notheast coast..thanks.
1673. K8eCane
Quoting reedzone:
I Think sar2401 is confusing me with what I did during Isaac, calling that a Hurricane every update.. I admit to that and I was wrong.



Reed I for one appreciate your input. Forecast as you feel you should.
1674. ncstorm
Quoting air360:
Interesting discussion from our local NWS in Newport NC
=======================
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...concern is growing for significant storm system
to affect coastal eastern NC this weekend.


Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to become a hurricane today...and
move northward across Cuba tonight. Most models are positioning
the storm near or just north of the northern Bahamas Friday
afternoon and evening. After this point there is still some
uncertainty on how the storm will evolve and whether it will start
becoming extra tropical...as tropical systems tend to do north of
this latitude this time of year. Medium range model suite in
general agreement on deepening middle Continental U.S. Long wave trough this
weekend which will act to draw the system northeastward and off
the NC coast late this weekend.


There is still model uncertainty however regarding how close
Sandy gets to the NC coastline. The operational GFS has been
consistently taking the storm in a northeastward direction and
having its closest approach to the coast roughly at 300 miles. The
European model (ecmwf) on the other hand has also been consistent run-to-run for
the last several days and has been taking the storm more north
north eastward and bringing it to within about 200 miles of the
coast. One important thing to note is the amplitude of the
forecasted long wave trough expected to dig across the
central/eastern Continental U.S.. the European model (ecmwf) ensemble mean...along with the
NCEP and CMC ensemble means are more in line with a more amplified
trough as indicated by the operational European model (ecmwf)...which is plausible
given the current blocking pattern in Greenland. This in turn
would favor a more north northeastward track and therefore a
slightly closer approach to the NC coast as the European model (ecmwf) has been
alluding to.


Several important points to note this weekend. This event looks to
be a long duration storm affecting much of the coastal waters
with at least gale force winds...large battering waves... and
heavy rains. Even though the storm is forecasted to remain east of
the waters...the large wind field associated with the storm as it
becomes extratropical will act to have a prolonged strong
northerly fetch as it creeps up the coastline. This will allow for
large breaking waves to produce beach erosion across the northern
Outer Banks...and significant coastal flooding problems across
southern and eastern Pamlico Sound. Should the closer-to-the coast
solution verify...copious rainfall on the order of 8 inches or
more would be likely.


Residents of eastern NC are urged to pay close attention to this
developing potential high impact situation as future forecasts
are fine tuned and prepare to take necessary precautions.
===========================


I read on another website, coastal NC could see hurricane force winds given the current model runs and pressure gradient..
1675. LargoFl
Quoting DookiePBC:
So looking at my local forecast this morning, they are predicting wind gusts here (in Palm Beach County) of around 50 mph. That should be interesting with all of the shoddily designed campaign signs littering the medians of every intersection.
i think gusts below you are already in the 30's, going to be a windy few days for all of us even here on the gulf side
1676. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE
PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH...NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL OVER THE
WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS
TRACK MAY RESULT IN STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING..AND DANGEROUS
SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR DETAILS REGARDING SANDY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

BROWN
1677. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would love if people save the GW debates for when we don't have a life threatning situation for millions of people for not only in the caribbean but along the southeast/mid-atlantic/notheast coast..thanks.


you just talking to a brick wall..
1678. nigel20
The rain has gotten a bit heavier here in Kingston, Jamaica.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


hurricane sandy you mean?
not officially...

but your party is in worse and worse jeopardy....ECMWF wants you to get 1-2inches of snow

GFS has you on the edge with the low that spins up behind Sandy:
i'm still ver very skeptical about seeing snow here anytime soon.I want Sandy dead!.BTW how strong would winds be here in D.C if the Euro's forecast happened?.
1680. ncstorm
Quoting reedzone:
I Think sar2401 is confusing me with what I did during Isaac, calling that a Hurricane every update.. I admit to that and I was wrong.


You dont have to apologize..keep doing you!
1681. nigel20
Palisadoes, Kingston, Jamaica (source: Jamaica Gleaner)
1682. LargoFl
remember not to just look at that middle line............
Quoting washingtonian115:
i'm still ver very skeptical about seeing snow here anytime soon.I want Sandy dead!.BTW how strong would winds be here in D.C if the Euro's forecast happened?.


not too bad because you are well south of the storm, the EURO clips you mostly with the edge of the precip, so I suspect just mainly breezy.
We still have a week, the GFS threatens snow on halloween but mainly snows the day after, but i suspect it would be rain anyway, and not much at that.

7 days out, cant say anything beyond "its possible" at this point. The actualy track and development of Sandy will play a huge role in all of this.
It's times like this we'd love to have Doppler Radar from Jamaica.




I'm off to bed. My back nerve is playing up big time. Meds are kicking in also,

Goodnight all. People in Jamaica please stay safe.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Sounds like a company trying to make money. That's what insurance does.


Of course it does, why else would an insurance company be in business? But you miss the point. Insurance deals with risk- as in the more likely something is to happen, the less likely you will be able to get insure for that particular happening, at least for a reasonable amount of money. It pays well for insurance companies to know what climate risks are before they insure your home, for one example. If you can get cheap homeowner's insurance, chances are you don't lve where there are high risks of property damage. (The Floridians here know all about that).

So- since they make money knowing what hazards to expect, you can bet that an insurance company wants to know those hazards, and acurately, too. If they want to make money, they had better pay attention to charts like Nea posted.

In other news, I am considering, but only just, going to get in some supplies against the storm. TWC says hopefully the models will begin to agree on Saturday, so I figure tomorrow or Friday will be soon enough.
The rain is getting stronger in Spanish Town, Jamaica. There was no breeze before but there is more than an hint of some now, nothing serious though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
i'm still ver very skeptical about seeing snow here anytime soon.I want Sandy dead!.BTW how strong would winds be here in D.C if the Euro's forecast happened?.

This is 850 mb winds, so there will be boundary layer mixing that applies, but this should give you an idea if you trust the 00Z ECMWF.

Are the models still showing Sandy as a west loaded storm? I know they were for a while, but it sure looks like she is loaded up on the east side to me. Not good for Haiti or the Bahamas.
Can i see that at 66HR?
Quoting 1900hurricane:

This is 850 mb winds, so there will be boundary layer mixing that applies, but this should give you an idea if you trust the 00Z ECMWF.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

This is 850 mb winds, so there will be boundary layer mixing that applies, but this should give you an idea if you trust the ECMWF.

Mmm so is that hurricane force winds for the coast and about 30mph winds for me inland?.

Anybody seen these bloggers as of late?
VR46L and Stormtracker2K?
1692. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:
It's times like this we'd love to have Doppler Radar from Jamaica.




I'm off to bed. My back nerve is playing up big time. Meds are kicking in also,

Goodnight all. People in Jamaica please stay safe.
nite aussie
Wind and rain slowly picking up in the Kingston area now. My patio door is open and is starting to swing to and fro. Just had a nice bowl of Chicken soup that I prepared when I woke up.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Wrong. I didn't bait anyone.


yes you do it all the time
but you are a good blogger
and i like the comments
that you make more so
in other blogs

just got to get over the bait tactic
i see good in you
1696. ncstorm
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not too bad because you are well south of the storm, the EURO clips you mostly with the edge of the precip, so I suspect just mainly breezy.
We still have a week, the GFS threatens snow on halloween but mainly snows the day after, but i suspect it would be rain anyway, and not much at that.

7 days out, cant say anything beyond "its possible" at this point. The actualy track and development of Sandy will play a huge role in all of this.


breezy? got this off Midatlantic Weather Storms from Tri-state weather off of Facebook

given the current Euro run..these are the conditions that could be expected

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Can i see that at 66HR?

The ECMWF doesn't have a 66 hr time frame, plus I don't have access to the entire run with those models. I'm just vulturing those off of Dr. Ryan Maue's twitter account. :P
Is it wobbling to the west
Quoting DookiePBC:
Are the models still showing Sandy as a west loaded storm? I know they were for a while, but it sure looks like she is loaded up on the east side to me. Not good for Haiti or the Bahamas.


yes they are, it should get west loaded as it approaches florida, that much should not change.
By the time it approaches the NE per the Euro, it is taking on this shape, but close to shore, with snow on the western side large band:

Quoting Rainwalker:
The rain is getting stronger in Spanish Town, Jamaica. There was no breeze before but there is more than an hint of some now, nothing serious though.


Take care. It's going to be a rough day...

THX!:)
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The ECMWF doesn't have a 66 hr time frame, plus I don't have access to the entire run with those models. I'm just vulturing those off of Dr. Ryan Maue's twitter account. :P
1702. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not too bad because you are well south of the storm, the EURO clips you mostly with the edge of the precip, so I suspect just mainly breezy.
We still have a week, the GFS threatens snow on halloween but mainly snows the day after, but i suspect it would be rain anyway, and not much at that.

7 days out, cant say anything beyond "its possible" at this point. The actualy track and development of Sandy will play a huge role in all of this.
nyc forecast is 70-50 thru the weekend, does not look cold enough for snow and D.C is further south so probably a bit warmer, my guess is, the biggest problem for my daughter in DC is water being pushed into the inlets and causing inland flooding, besides the winds etc..might be some inland flooding if the euro proves true
1703. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmm so is that hurricane force winds for the coast and about 30mph winds for me inland?.

Anybody seen these bloggers as of late?
VR46L and Stormtracker2K?


S2K was banned
What happened to recon? Haven't had a report in 30 minutes.
1705. Daws
Good morning, here in Montego Bay the rain and wind is light witth a calm feeling.
Looks like Sandy is moving slightly west of north. Maybe it's just an optical illusion?
Quoting ncstorm:


breezy? got this off Midatlantic Weather Storms from Tri-state weather off of Facebook

given the current Euro run..these are the conditions that could be expected

What does that translate to ncstorm?.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


yes they are, it should get west loaded as it approaches florida, that much should not change.
By the time it approaches the NE per the Euro, it is taking on this shape, but close to shore, with snow on the western side large band:



Thanks Georgia! My son's football practice should be interesting the next few days. Working on the passing and kicking game especially!!! LOL!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmm so is that hurricane force winds for the coast and about 30mph winds for me inland?.

Anybody seen these bloggers as of late?
VR46L and Stormtracker2K?

I'm not extremely familiar with the topography of the area, but that seems like it would be reasonable to me. Maybe much higher gusts if the 80 kt winds at 850 mix down better than usual.
1710. LargoFl
.........................new Nam model at 21 hours
Is it wobbling to the west???
Today is the 7th Anniversary of Hurricane Wilma. What an incredible storm...

REMEMBERING WILMA

Stories about Wilma
1713. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is it wobbling to the west???
thats what I am seeing also
1714. bwi
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:27:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°51'N 76°44'W (16.85N 76.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (127 km) to the S (177°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,930m (9,613ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 63kts (From the ESE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,012m (9,882ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west-northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:36:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged eyewall
I was in the EYE of that storm!!
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Today is the 7th Anniversary of Hurricane Wilma. What an incredible storm...

REMEMBERING WILMA

Stories about Wilma
1716. LargoFl
1717. WxLogic
Current steering as of 12Z:

Houston has a problem, especially when the next big major comes in...

"In less than 30 years, our region is expected to add 3.5 million people. The Houston-Galveston Area Council and our partners are working on a Regional Plan for Sustainable Development to help local governments prepare for this growth."

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is it wobbling to the west???


Seemed like a general NNW movement to me but sometimes the eyes play tricks when analyzing satellite imagery.
1720. nigel20
Caribbean Estate, Kingston, Jamaica (Jamaica Gleaner)
L. Eye Character: Open in the west-northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I was in the EYE of that storm!!


We were about 20 miles from the eye as it passed to our Southeast and it was still VERY potent. That was a beast of a storm.
Quoting ncstorm:


breezy? got this off Midatlantic Weather Storms from Tri-state weather off of Facebook

given the current Euro run..these are the conditions that could be expected



breezy to gusty, nothing too serious in DC, most winds stay more offshore or close to shore
once it hits NJ, they get it worst.Of coure it prob wont hit NJ anyway, because it is still 7 days out:
Light wind and steady light rain continuing here on Provo.
Quoting bwi:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:27:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°51'N 76°44'W (16.85N 76.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (127 km) to the S (177°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,930m (9,613ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 63kts (From the ESE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,012m (9,882ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west-northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:36:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged eyewall
Should be enough for Hurricane status, combined with 4.3T. Although the NHC has been very conservative this year.
oduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:27:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°51'N 76°44'W (16.85N 76.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (127 km) to the S (177°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,930m (9,613ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 63kts (From the ESE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,012m (9,882ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west-northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:36:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged eyewall
1727. hydrus
1728. BDAwx
Looks like Sandy is crossing the threshold into hurricane status with an eye forming and some very low pressures <980mb. I'm interested to read the 11am discussion :).
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Jamaica and Haiti about to get clobbered
1730. hydrus
/
Sandy already has washingtonians talking around here.Suppose to be some events taking place down town over the weekend and a lot of people are suspected to be out.
1732. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
What does that translate to ncstorm?.


If the current Euro run pans out..look for 80mph winds
1733. Daws
Good morning, here in Montego Bay the rain and wind is still light and a feeling of calm
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1736. JRRP
.
1737. cwf1069
Good Morning. The satellite image can be deceived, the center continue on a NNE track, while the wind field can be expanding to the NW. Sandy could miss Jammaica completly. The worst part would be for Haiti and Eastern Cuba.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I was in the EYE of that storm!!

Same here
1739. UWI
You can see tha bands on Sandy on the Cuban

RadarLink