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Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ON TOP OF THAT MR MJO CAME BACK RIGHT ON TIME!">
Hey Wes, I hope you haven't tried texting me lately. I lost my phone at work. Gonna have to get a new one.
SANDY IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND SHES SHOWING GREENS IN THE FUNKTOP.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey Wes, I hope you haven't tried texting me lately. I lost my phone at work. Gonna have to get a new one.
HOW U DID DAT? AND I DID TEXT U LAST WEEK TOO.
TD19 still holding its own.

Quoting bigwes6844:
HOW U DID DAT? AND I DID TEXT U LAST WEEK TOO.


I left it in the restroom at work. Dad did that once too, back when he worked at Walmart. Runs in the family I guess. >.>

Unfortunately, my plan doesn't expire until March, and I don't have enough money to get on a new one, so I suppose I'll have to settle for a cheap phone in the meantime. Limited texting is better than none at all, ha.
Quoting Levi32:
Look at how the upper trough in the eastern GOM takes on a negative tilt in a few days. This may look like a very sheared situation for Sandy, but it is in fact one of the best intensification schemes you can get in October/November, with the ability for the NW quadrant of the storm to become quite ferocious under the divergence aloft. Convection will likely cover the center well in this setup, with dry air wrapping around the southern side. The orientation of the trough also opens the possibility for Sandy to track a bit farther west once north of the Bahamas than the GFS currently shows her doing.

I agree that the environment over the next few days will be quite favorable. However, you appear to be referring to the longer range (the image you posted is for Friday). By this time, I believe conditions will no longer be favorable for intensification. Sure the divergence is there, but I refuse to believe 40 knots of shear is one of the "best intensification schemes", even if this is October. Beyond Friday, though models forecast deepening of the low, they also show it acquiring subtropical characteristics...in other words the shear/divergence will ultimately kill the tropical characteristics of the storm.

Maybe the actual upper level set up will evolve differently, but from that model run, I disagree. The true "best conditions" for Sandy lie in the Caribbean over the next couple days, not over the Bahamas in 3 to 4 days.
EASTERN SIDE OF SANDY ON THE LAST COUPLE OF FRAMES IS REALLY INSTENSFYING BIG TIME. JAMAICA WATCH THIS STORM CAREFULLY
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
11:30 AM IST October 23 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC. Latest satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestward and concentrated into a depression. Depression ARB01-2012 lays near 11.0N 65.0E or about 800 km west of Amini Divi, India and 1200 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system is likely to intensify further and move west northwestward towards Somalis and Yemen coast during the next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 16.5N and 60.0E to 70.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1006 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation Index currently lies over phase 1 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to Phase 2 during next 3 days. Hence it is favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over north Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia and Yemen coasts. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind Shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. There is no change in wind shear during past 24 Hrs.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I left it in the restroom at work. Dad did that once too, back when he worked at Walmart. Runs in the family I guess. >.>

Unfortunately, my plan doesn't expire until March, and I don't have enough money to get on a new one, so I suppose I'll have to settle for a cheap phone in the meantime. Limited texting is better than none at all, ha.
WOW THATS KRAZY MY MAN. GET U A TRACFONE FROM WALMART KORI
Quoting Slamguitar:


Is that this one?



yes, that is the depression marked by Japan Meteorological Agency.
Quoting bigwes6844:
WOW THATS KRAZY MY MAN. GET U A TRACFONE FROM WALMART KORI


That's what I'm gonna do.

Night all.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I left it in the restroom at work. Dad did that once too, back when he worked at Walmart. Runs in the family I guess. >.>

Unfortunately, my plan doesn't expire until March, and I don't have enough money to get on a new one, so I suppose I'll have to settle for a cheap phone in the meantime. Limited texting is better than none at all, ha.
WOW MY MAN I FEEL DA PAIN. I LEFT MY OLD FONE ON TOP OF MY FRIENDS CAR AND FORGOT IT THERE AND NEVER FOUND IT. I MISS DAT FONE T0O. BUT GET U A TRACFONE FROM WALMART
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
11:30 AM IST October 23 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC. Latest satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestward and concentrated into a depression. Depression ARB01-2012 lays near 11.0N 65.0E or about 800 km west of Amini Divi, India and 1200 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system is likely to intensify further and move west northwestward towards Somalis and Yemen coast during the next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 16.5N and 60.0E to 70.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1006 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation Index currently lies over phase 1 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to Phase 2 during next 3 days. Hence it is favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over north Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia and Yemen coasts. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind Shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. There is no change in wind shear during past 24 Hrs.

NOT SURPRISED AT ALL BECAUSE SOME OF THE MJO IS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's what I'm gonna do.

Night all.
KOOL. NIGHT KORI
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wasn't that cyclonebuster's idea? He called them "tunnels", I believe.


Yes yes! I couldn't remember the details!
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormSandy @ 23Oct.6am

GCM-GrandCayman :: PVA-Providencia :: ADZ-SanAndres :: MBJ-MontegoBay

The easternmost unlabeled dot is where Invest99L became TropicalDepressionEighteen
The next unlabeled dot southsouthwest is where TD.18 became TropicalStormSandy
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Sandy's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline.
23Oct.6am: TS.Sandy had been heading toward passage 5.8miles(20kilometres)WNWest of GrandCayman

Click this link to the GreatCirleMapper for more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
The EURO ensemble mean is really impressive,


They are very confident this will get knocked to the NW by the low in the Atlantic.

As is the operational run


Consistent for 2-3 days on a "doomsday" like scenario.
1993 Storm of the Century's pressure bottomed out to 960 mlb. The EURO shows the strongest East Coast storm in quite sometime. Very interesting.
519. vis0
Lets see how Tropical Storm Sandy - 201210-23 .moves. My 2 cents?,: please read the blog (if read, yes i state i created a device that can influence weather:) Lets see if it becomes an Express superstorm, though i don't like the way superstorm is used anytime 2 Low formations join.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.htm l?entrynum=109
Sandy getting better organize after some dry air overnight. Its now building a CDO and by 11am we could see a 50 or 60mph cyclone and a another westward shift in the cone. As a big low over the Atlantic will block any NE turn out to sea and a narrow area of high pressure might step in and force NW towards The Northwest Bahamas and Florida as been mentioned by Dr. M for a couple of blogs now.
6Z GFS go W now S FL is going to get big rain!!
Quoting Hurricanes305:
Sandy getting better organize after some dry air overnight. Its now building a CDO and by 11am we could see a 50 or 60mph cyclone and a another westward shift in the cone. As a big low over the Atlantic will block any NE turn out to sea and a narrow area of high pressure might step in and force NW towards The Northwest Bahamas and Florida as been mentioned by Dr. M for a couple of blogs now.
Good morning. IDK if it is my eyes but it looks like a very slow movememnt to the NW now.

Link
good morning folks..7-day for the tampa bay area.......
Hi all... not sure how much time I'll have to post in the blog today, but I will certainly be monitoring the progress of Sandy.

If I have any news of interest from the local scene, I'll post that, and will try to get a blog post of my own up sometime in the next 24 hours.

I'm just thinking it's pretty amazing I haven't really needed to post much in my blog this year, despite the 18 named storms.... lol

Have a good day!
Good morning everyone, Sandy is looking better and we should have Tony today. My NWS has started mentioning the possibility of Sandy tracking into the eastern lakes.
WOW!!


Good morning. Sandy's looking rather blobbish right now:



I continue to believe the GFS track solution, and it appears the NHC is leaning that way as well. I'd say South Florida could see some decent rain and some wind with high surf and rip currents being the only threats for the rest of the East Coast.
This is from me yesterday and this is the 6Z GFS

6Z!!
Good Morning
Any status updates on the hurricane hunter aircraft going into Sandy this morning? The NHC mentioned it in the 5am EDT discussion.
84HR

Quoting Grothar:


I think the pressure gradient difference alone would cause extremely windy conditions even if Sandy were to stay well off the coast. She looks like she might be a slow mover which would cause severe beach erosion. Even if there were no I would say the possibility is high that a good portion of the coast would have TS watches at least. Looks like it will go right over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and right through the central Bahamas.


More likely High Wind advisories. This morning Sandy looks lopsided a bit with dry air to her north & west, which has inhibited development. If she stays lopsided you will see just HW advisories or South Fla.
They are going in to Sandy now!!
Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
Any status updates on the hurricane hunter aircraft going into Sandy this morning? The NHC mentioned it in the 5am EDT discussion.
Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
Any status updates on the hurricane hunter aircraft going into Sandy this morning? The NHC mentioned it in the 5am EDT discussion.
Link
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
They are going in to Sandy now!!
They are still a couple hundred miles north of Sandy now.
Quoting psuweathernewbie1:
Any status updates on the hurricane hunter aircraft going into Sandy this morning? The NHC mentioned it in the 5am EDT discussion.


They're still on their way, but they're close. They're about 270 miles away from Sandy. I would expect them to start descending in 15 to 20 min.
so my sandy forecast is over 5 days
today:expect to attain 60mph winds
tommorow:jaimaca landfall
thursday:cuba landfall
friday:attains cat1 and hits bahamas
Good Morning everyone...Sandy and an ULL to the north of her.

Quoting flcanes:
so my sandy forecast is over 5 days
today:expect to attain 60mph winds
tommorow:jaimaca landfall
thursday:cuba landfall
friday:attains cat1 and hits bahamas

SO I guess you don't agree with this...



with the help of this?
My forecasts for Sandy and TD19.
so even though the GFS goes NE rather than North it is still the farthest west than the Euro and CMC after exiting cuba and tags south florida
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning everyone...Sandy and an ULL to the north of her.


Is that ULL causing this projected shear?


I guess this AC is not helping either.
Anyone else notice 19L has the same D.I numbers as Sandy? Could we see an upgrade to Tony soon?

a lot more ensembles are now keeping the North path instead of NE
00z







My guess is we will have TS Tony by the end of the day.


Sun is about to come over TS Sandy.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
My guess is we will have TS Tony by the end of the day.


Sun is about to come over TS Sandy.

nice banding on 19L.








But dry are could become an issue soon.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone else notice 19L has the same D.I numbers as Sandy? Could we see an upgrade to Tony soon?



Good catch Aussie.
Timing Timing Timing

Sandy would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK EARLIER.

Sandy would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK LATER.

Timing Timing Timing

Some deep digging trough action going on here, as the CPC takes excerpts from all seven major models and suggests strong trough action going on here. How in the world can this system affect Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard? Answer: It can't.



This system will only be a threat to Jamaica, Cayman, Cuba, and the Bahamas where is could be destructive with winds and heavy rain, and even possibly hurricane conditions. CONUS--I think you are out of the woods with this one.

Timing Timing Timing
Recon is now about to enter into Sandy, we shall see what they find. Something tells me it won't be below 60 mph.

Sandy....


19L

Click for bigger image
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is now about to enter into Sandy, we shall see what they find. Something tells me it won't be below 60 mph.


Is recon going to fly into 19L or they not to worried about it now?

Good morning Sandy and all you others ...
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is recon going to fly into 19L or they not to worried about it now?

No recon, 19L is no concern.
We will see if my theory works in regards to rapid intensification. I've been going back through some of the tropical cyclone image archives from storms during the 2005, 2008, and 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. One thing I've noticed is that, just before rapid intensification begins, very deep convection fires in the outer bands, and then cloud tops warm and overshooting tops begin near the center.

Watch Sandy:



If we have a rapidly intensifying cyclone this afternoon we'll know my theory worked.
I wrote a blog on Sandy and TD19, check it out.
I have to go to school early again, bye everyone. It should be interesting to see what Sandy has done when I get home.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No recon, 19L is no concern.

If recon went to TD19 they would find its now a TS. Satellite presentation looks like a TS
Good morning/Evening everyone. I have a workshop today, so got to sleep in a little. My thoughts and prayers to Haiti, this could be very bad for them.
Center appears to be:

Coordinates: 13.3667N 77.8833W

with a 997MB
From Facebook-how true is this?

Henry Margusity Fan Club
Let me be clear, a Neg NAO means a storm should be along the coast despite what the GFS says.
Good Morning/Evening

Looks like Sandy is still pushing her twin off to the East. Her circulation doesn't look strong enough to reabsorb the spin off blob.
Quoting ncstorm:
From Facebook-how true is this?

Henry Margusity Fan Club
Let me be clear, a Neg NAO means a storm should be along the coast despite what the GFS says.

It's definitely difficult to get a storm to recurve in a negative NAO, but it doesn't mean that it won't.
Bye guys.



Woah hello there
Sfc. Press:996.8 mb
Circulation seems to be somewhat more defined than last night, but Sandy still needs at least 12 hours before it can start the process of developing a respectable inner-core. If that can happen, there is some moderate instability and strong OHC to work with until this hit Cuba.

I will say that this system has the most favorable conditions to work with since Ernesto, if not all season.

Should be quite the sight to watch Sandy's wind field explode once it interact with the PV anomaly shooting down from Canada.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's definitely difficult to get a storm to recurve in a negative NAO, but it doesn't mean that it won't.


Thanks TA!
573. JRRP
Interesting
125 mph cat 3...941 mb (could reach major status though)

from facebook:

Sandy and the Fork in the Road
Posted by: bnorcross, 12:12 PM GMT on October 23, 2012

The forecast dilemma for Sandy continues as we look ahead to the weekend and beyond. For the next few days, the center of the strengthening tropical storm and likely hurricane will move north out of the Caribbean with direct, life-threatening impacts on Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic tomorrow into Thursday. These islands all need to move to an alert status.

It also appears likely that much of the Bahamas will get flooding and high winds Friday into Saturday, similar to Hurricane Noel in 2007, with Florida feeling fringe effects, especially along the east coast.

Then things get murky, with the two groups of computer forecast models heading in different directions... two forks in the road. Both the American GFS and the European ECMWF show the jet stream dipping down from the north and beginning to affect the storm. The GFS affects it in the traditional sense of pushing it out to sea.

The European develops a jet-stream dip of VERY unusual shape and intensity, however, which wants to grab Sandy, inject significant energy into the system, and pull it north as a MEGA nor'easter.

This is an extremely unusual pattern which yields an extreme result, but it can't be totally discounted as a possibility. The European model has been the most accurate computer model for the last few years, though it has had some spectacular misses as well.

The upper-air disturbance that is forecast to turn into the jet-stream dip that grabs or doesn't grab Sandy is still developing off of western Canada... and there are a lot of pieces to fall into place. So for now our concern is for our friends in the northern Caribbean, but we watch for developments as the northern pattern develops over the next few days.

The fork comes around Saturday, so everybody from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and well inland will need to pay close attention to developments.
Sandy looks stronger than 40kt. Probably closer to 50kt.
Tornado Touches Down In Northern California, San Francisco Storms Tonight

A Tornado hit after 3:15pm PDT on Monday afternoon in Northern California, striking near Yuba City, or 40 miles north of Sacramento.

No injuries have been reported with the tornado. "We've had reports of power lines down and some outbuildings damaged," the weather service said. "Some kind of a small outbuilding was lifted about 200 feet from where it was located."



The storms came with a tornado warning as the tornado hit and several other funnel clouds were seen. The tornado (in the image above) was likely no stronger than an EF0-1.

"It was a weak tornado," said TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin. "HS readings were high in the area and the ingredients came together suddenly for this to happen. The dynamics really came together quickly."


Martin is saying thunderstorms will hit San Francisco tonight.

"Oh we know the big Giants game is happening, however late at night after the game we will be seeing late night thunderstorms and gusty conditions to boot across the San Francisco Bay area,"
Quoting JRRP:
Interesting

Why, cause they all pretty much have Sandy going over Jamaica?


Depression in Arabian Sea near Socotra Island (Yemen)
580. JRRP
Quoting AussieStorm:

Why, cause they all pretty much have Sandy going over Jamaica?

Sandy is moving in the east part of the models
Not stacked.

000
URNT12 KNHC 231240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 23/11:51:40Z
B. 13 deg 22 min N
077 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1391 m
D. 22 kt
E. 307 deg 29 nm
F. 044 deg 24 kt
G. 307 deg 88 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 17 C / 1519 m
J. 20 C / 1519 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0218A SANDY OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 12:18:30Z
Sfc cntr 340/12nm from flight level center. Flight level center up against convection
I see the Euro is still the stubborn outlier.
Is there anything else I've missed since yesterday?
They all going W now
from my local NWS in Wilmington, NC...will be back later

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EXCITING YET UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED RELATED TO NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM SANDY AND HOW SHE
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE WKND.

UNFORTUNATELY...OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COME
INTO LESS-AGREEMENT, AND THERE ARE TWO "CAMPS" AT THIS TIME. THE
GFS-CAMP DEVELOPS SANDY RAPIDLY NEAR CUBA AND THEN PUSHES HER WELL
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE US EAST COAST. THE MORE TROUBLING
ECMWF/CMC CAMP DEVELOPS SANDY IN ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME FRAME...AND
THEN BRINGS HER ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS A VERY
STRONG...REALLY AN HISTORIC...SYSTEM.

THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES LIE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB TROUGH
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND DIVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WKND...AND THE LEVEL OF RIDGE/BLOCKING THAT OCCURS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER TROUGH WHICH THEN CANNOT
CAPTURE SANDY TO SPIN HER BACK TO THE NORTH...AND A MORE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WHICH ENABLES SANDY TO DRIFT EAST BENEATH THE
WEAKNESS. THE ECMWF/CMC SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH IS
ABLE TO PULL SANDY BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE SHE IS
SLOWED BY MORE PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. WHILE THE ECMWF
TROUGH LOOKS ALMOST TOO STRONG...WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY THIS SEASON
TWO -3/-4 SD 500MB TROUGHS DEVELOP...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT HERE.
ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO
QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRACK AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WEST OF THE
CURRENT GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER BEING SO FAR
WEST...AND THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLES. NHC/HPC
CURRENTLY SUPPORT A TRACK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO...CLOSE TO THE
CMC.

ONE THING APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN...WARM WATER TEMPS AND GREAT 300MB
VENTILATION/COUPLED JET STRUCTURE (70 KT JETS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
STORM) AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO EXTRA-TROPICAL WILL SUPPORT A
VERY LARGE AND INTENSE CYCLONE...EVEN IF THE DIRECT EFFECTS
(WIND/RAIN) ARE MINIMAL IN THE LOCAL AREA. STILL...A CONSENSUS TRACK
WOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED NORTH WINDS AND AT LEAST SCHC OF
PRECIP...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...WHICH AGREES WITH CONTINUITY AND
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. LARGE SURF, STRONG
RIP CURRENTS, AND SOME COASTAL EROSION APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO SEVERAL
DAYS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONG PERIOD SWELL COINCIDING WITH
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES NEXT WKND.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not stacked.

000
URNT12 KNHC 231240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 23/11:51:40Z
B. 13 deg 22 min N
077 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1391 m
D. 22 kt
E. 307 deg 29 nm
F. 044 deg 24 kt
G. 307 deg 88 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 17 C / 1519 m
J. 20 C / 1519 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0218A SANDY OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 12:18:30Z
Sfc cntr 340/12nm from flight level center. Flight level center up against convection


A system that isn't vertically stacked in the Caribbean? In 2012? No way! Seems to be the story of the last few seasons, ever since Dolly.


HPC 5 day forecast

The models included on this map continue their west slide in the Bahamas. NHC again the eastern outlier.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


A system that isn't vertically stacked in the Caribbean? In 2012? No way! Seems to be the story of the last few seasons, ever since Dolly.

Easy, Teddy.
Good morning

With Sandy now a sub 1000 mb storm amd likely to strengthen some today, the present steering would seem to suggest a bit of a nudge to the NNW as it comes up below Jamaica. The ridge to the N is still in the process of propagating to the East and as it flattens over Fla. the current motion to the NNE should ease to one of due North or NNW in the short term.

This is what I will be watching for later today.

Will S FL be in the Cone at 11AM??

Everytime I tried to leave, i find something else but good gracious, the CMC ensembles have shifted west..okay Im off to do some work..have fun

Sandy now being sheared by the off center anticyclone.
All of the deep convection is being pushed off to the East of the circulation center and preventing the system from becoming vertically aligned.

Wow!!
Quoting ncstorm:
Everytime I tried to leave, i find something else but good gracious, the CMC ensembles have shifted west..okay Im off to do some work..have fun

Quoting ncstorm:
Everytime I tried to leave, i find something else but good gracious, the CMC ensembles have shifted west..okay Im off to do some work..have fun



I have favoured the CMC track from several days ago and still lean that way with Sandy passing just immediately West of Jamaica but East of the Cayman Islands. Cayman Brac and Little Cayman would get more of the system than Grand Cayman would if that happens
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
21:00 PM JST October 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 8.3N 128.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.2N 124.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
Not expecting much intensification until late this evening, the core needs to become better established, and we all know how long that takes. 50mph tops today, with intensification beginning in earnest tomorrow.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Will S FL be in the Cone at 11AM??



I don't think it will come too close to FL however a track over the NWrn Bahamas area is looking more and more likely with each passing model run. That would make for a pretty nasty day along the East Coast. One thing is for sure, the beaches will take the hardest punch here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's definitely difficult to get a storm to recurve in a negative NAO, but it doesn't mean that it won't.


I never realized the NAO had gone so negative.
If only it was january.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not expecting much intensification until late this evening, the core needs to become better established, and we all know how long that takes. 50mph tops today, with intensification beginning in earnest tomorrow.

I see you're agreeing with what StormChaser2007 said, which is most likely correct.
601. JRRP
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
They all going W now

I do not think so
Link
What im seeing is the model runs themselves are east, but quite a few ensembles stay west the whole time, and then some of them go east similiar to the operational models, and then curve back west and move westward into the northeast.
Anyone have a link to the GFS Model snow forecast? Someone posted the image yesterday (it showed snow in the mid atlantic as Sandy phases and turns into a Noreaster)

Thanks!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I don't think it will come too close to FL however a track over the NWrn Bahamas area is looking more and more likely with each passing model run. That would make for a pretty nasty day along the East Coast. One thing is for sure, the beaches will take the hardest punch here.


Why isn't anyon mentioning the high terrain over Cuba that Sandy has to cross?.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A system that isn't vertically stacked in the Caribbean? In 2012? No way! Seems to be the story of the last few seasons, ever since Dolly.

The two centers aren't horribly far apart, and Sandy should resolve the stacking issue by tomorrow.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why isn't anyon mentioning the high terrain over Cuba that Sandy has to cross?.

Because the high terrain over Cuba would seriously disrupt Sandy, and cause substantial weakening. And most folks aren't rooting for that.
Quoting ecupirate:
Anyone have a link to the GFS Model snow forecast? Someone posted the image yesterday (it showed snow in the mid atlantic as Sandy phases and turns into a Noreaster)

Thanks!


GFS doesnt have the noreaster, so no snow.
Just think what would happen if this became a reality. Evacuations from Maryland to Maine, winter storm warnings inland.. the Superstorm of 2012, Storm of the Century. This would beat the 1993 Superstorm in terms of pressure. You would see Hurricane force winds from Cape Cod to Long Island, perhaps New Jersey and PA since it all backs to the west. It would be a rare phenomenon if this panned out.


This is the EURO and it's ensemble members are in strong agreement of a north to NNW track after the Bahamas. Not to mention the NAO is very low, which usually indicates an East Coast Storm of some sort. Elements to consider.
The 006Z late cycle




The 12Z early cycle.



Quoting washingtonian115:
Why isn't anyon mentioning the high terrain over Cuba that Sandy has to cross?.


Its a very large monsoonal system that wont take too much of a beating, since it is not coming in as a very strong system, and passes over cuba fairly quickly.

Heck even Jamaica is very mountainous.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Its a very large monsoonal system that wont take too much of a beating, since it is not coming in as a very strong system, and passes over cuba fairly quickly.

Heck even Jamaica is very mountainous.

The circulation of a 70-knot hurricane will be disrupted at least slightly by Cuba. I'd agree if the storm doesn't end up becoming a hurricane.
The NHC is dreaming that it is moving to the NNE at 3 mph , to me it still stationary , they must need glasses, even I can see that ! It's still coming to Florida and the entire east coast , like I said yesterday .
Quoting reedzone:
Just think what would happen if this became a reality. Evacuations from Maryland to Maine, winter storm warnings inland.. the Superstorm of 2012, Storm of the Century. This would beat the 1993 Superstorm in terms of pressure. You would see Hurricane force winds from Cape Cod to Long Island, perhaps New Jersey and PA since it all backs to the west. It would be a rare phenomenon if this panned out.


This is the EURO and it's ensemble members are in strong agreement of a north to NNW track after the Bahamas. Not to mention the NAO is very low, which usually indicates an East Coast Storm of some sort. Elements to consider.
I am not evacuating for anything!LOL
Quoting reedzone:
Just think what would happen if this became a reality. Evacuations from Maryland to Maine, winter storm warnings inland.. the Superstorm of 2012, Storm of the Century. This would beat the 1993 Superstorm in terms of pressure. You would see Hurricane force winds from Cape Cod to Long Island, perhaps New Jersey and PA since it all backs to the west. It would be a rare phenomenon if this panned out.


This is the EURO and it's ensemble members are in strong agreement of a north to NNW track after the Bahamas. Not to mention the NAO is very low, which usually indicates an East Coast Storm of some sort. Elements to consider.


Nothing would match that earlier Euro run a few days back or this current CMC:



I think that other Euro was 920mbs or 930mbs and had an effect over practically the whole US east of the Mississippi River and brought the snow line to northern GA.
FIM9 as it crosses Jamaica.




The FIM as is moves into the Bahamas.




Again the only thing I do not understand with this system, is that each model has the worst weather and winds in the NW quadrant rather than the NE. I wonder is anyone could explain why.
Miami NWS Disco

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MELBOURNE AND KEY WEST IT WAS AGREED THAT
WE WILL NOT INCLUDE TROPICAL WORDING IN THE CWF IN THIS MORNING
PACKAGE UNTIL WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF THE EXTENT OF THE WIND FIELD.

A MORE CLEAR PICTURE OF THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL FORCE WINDS IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT ADVISORIES WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
WORDING *TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE* CAN BE ADDED TO THE
CWF IN THE NEXT PACKAGES. ALSO...NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
THE WINDS USED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER, NO GALE WATCH IS
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY WITH A VERY GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD BE EXTENDED BEYOND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT PATH OF SANDY.
Quoting Grothar:





That's pretty close lol. Just going off the effects we had when Irene 2011 passed through a similar location as a CAT 3. Windy but not too bad.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


GFS doesnt have the noreaster, so no snow.


Someone posted a graphic of the GFS snowfall forecast for the US. That is what I am looking for.
If the eroupean models are right...

...Snowicane Sandy!
6Z GFS ENSEMBLE!! all of them at 78HR!!






Wow as this system moves further inland and weakens its pull on the very cold canadian airmass greatly increases per the Euro:


Good morning all!

NEWS RELEASE
October 23 2012 at 8 a.m..

BULLETIN No:7 TROPICAL STORM WARNING and HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT …TROPICAL STORM SANDY BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST

TROPICAL STORM WARNING and HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT …TROPICAL STORM SANDY BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST


The TROPICAL STORM WARNING and HURRICANE WATCH remain in effect for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Sandy makes a turn in the direction of the island.

This means that tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained wind speeds of 34-63 knots or 63-118 km/h (40-74 mph), are expected in 36 hours or less and that hurricane conditions also pose a possible threat to the country within 48 hours.

At 7:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Sandy was located near Latitude 13.4 degrees North, Longitude 77.9 degrees West, or about 525 kilometres (325 miles) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica or 400 kilometres (250 miles) south of the Pedro Cays.

Tropical Storm Sandy has begun to move towards the north-northeast near 6 km/h (3 mph) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed today and tomorrow. On this forecast track, the centre of Sandy will begin to move across Jamaica, from south to north, on Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 km/h (45 mph), with higher gusts; however, strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Sandy is forecast to be a hurricane nearing Jamaica tomorrow. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 kilometres (90 miles), primarily east of the centre.

Over the next 24-36 hours, rainfall is expected to increase significantly over Jamaica to produce over 250 millimeters (10 inches), especially over central and eastern sections of the island. Flash flooding and landslides are likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected by early Wednesday morning and hurricane conditions later in the day. Storm surge is also possible along the southeastern coastline of the island.

All small craft operators including fishers from the cays and banks should by now have completed all the necessary safety precautions and are advised to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal

It is likely that a Hurricane Warning will be issued for Jamaica later today. The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Sandy will be issued at 11:00 a.m. today.


pef
But one should also note that unlike Irene in 2011 there may be some Barclonic Forcing going on at that time which could greatly change the impacts felt on the East Coast.
It's not looking good for us (Jamaica) ATM.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
But one should also note that unlike Irene in 2011 there may be some Barclonic Forcing going on at that time which could greatly change the impacts felt on the East Coast.


Just the change in the temp really.. Plus the wind field will widen. Other then that, the pressure should continue to drop and conditions will only get worse.
She doing good now!!!
Quoting nigel20:
It's not looking good for us (Jamaica) ATM.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
But one should also note that unlike Irene in 2011 there may be some Barclonic Forcing going on at that time which could greatly change the impacts felt on the East Coast.
Right,I think Irene weakened considerably when it pulled in the air from land.
Quoting ecupirate:


Someone posted a graphic of the GFS snowfall forecast for the US. That is what I am looking for.


I know on www.twisterdata.com if you click on GFS and then on winter, you can then look at snow depth for any hour.
Would be useful if the GFS decided to bring the Noreaster back again.

Also Wunderground Models/Maps
has a snowfall feature under GFS and ECMWF

The ECMWF snowfall forecast for 174hrs shows a major snowfall event for Pennsylvania and New York:

Quoting reedzone:


Just the change in the temp really.. Plus the wind field will widen. Other then that, the pressure should continue to drop and conditions will only get worse.


Widening wind field is the key there. Irene's TS wind field stayed just offshore on it's closest approach to FL. Move Sandy over 50 miles or so and widen the wind field and you'll have a much different experience. On top of that, some of the models are indicating a Wrn loaded storm, unlike the traditional east loaded sheared cyclone.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Widening wind field is the key there. Irene's TS wind field stayed just offshore on it's closest approach to FL. Move Sandy over 50 miles or so and widen the wind field and you'll have a much different experience. On top of that, some of the models are indicating a Wrn loaded storm, unlike the traditional east loaded sheared cyclone.


I remember that. We had Tropical Depression conditions for 5 minutes then it was gone... That was my experience with Irene here in Palm Coast.
633. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


morning could se fl get more of sandy than expected esp if she builds in on the western side today now hmm only 3 days out
06Z GFS @ 78hrs. Notice how tight the gradient is on the west side compared to the east. SEFL would be under a TS warning in this model run.

Sandy's MLC and LLC don't seem stacked, but they look very close.

Sandy go out to sea!.Those poor people in the Caribbean will have to deal with her because she is land locked.
Quoting Grothar:
FIM9 as it crosses Jamaica.




The FIM as is moves into the Bahamas.




Again the only thing I do not understand with this system, is that each model has the worst weather and winds in the NW quadrant rather than the NE. I wonder is anyone could explain why.


Pressure gradient due to the orientation of the E CONUS/ W ATL high to the N and NW of Sandy as it noses down on the W side prior to the next approaching TROF. That would be my explanation of the pooling of moisture on the N and W side of Sandy on those runs.
Halo 4 Soundtrack is out!!!:)
GFS model shifted left if trends continue the nw bahamas are going to get nailed bad . I have a gut feeling se florida will be under a tropical storm watch towards thurs or friday very bad weather will be close or over the coastal areas if the track over the nw bahamas does materialize
I took these about 20 minutes ago.



Based on the EMCWF snowfall model, it appears that after copious amounts of moisture are dumped as snow in NY, PA, and MD, the whole batch of precipitation begins to drift south towards the end of the WU snowfall model output at 180 hrs, and this is on October 30th.

This means if the snow area was to rotate south a tad more, it could snow in DC on the 31st before the low takes off north, making Washingtonian115 a very unhappy lady.

I must go now, and will be back around lunchtime.
Press going down now at 996.1
Where are you i will put it up on my Weather blog on FB
Quoting nigel20:
I took these about 20 minutes ago.



Quoting nigel20:
I took these about 20 minutes ago.





Sandy is coming..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I know on www.twisterdata.com if you click on GFS and then on winter, you can then look at snow depth for any hour.
Would be useful if the GFS decided to bring the Noreaster back again.

Also Wunderground Models/Maps
has a snowfall feature under GFS and ECMWF

The ECMWF snowfall forecast for 174hrs shows a major snowfall event for Pennsylvania and New York:



That was it, it was the ECMWF map. Thanks! I will have to bookmark that one!
Lake Worth Pier on Friday morning based on GFS, winds 44 knots gusting to 61 knots.

Link
850MB winds in the same model run. Surface reduction would still yield TS conditions.



Im hoping it leaves Eastern NC alone. Irene was a mess and the last thing I want is to have to clean up trees again.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I know on www.twisterdata.com if you click on GFS and then on winter, you can then look at snow depth for any hour.
Would be useful if the GFS decided to bring the Noreaster back again.

Also Wunderground Models/Maps
has a snowfall feature under GFS and ECMWF

The ECMWF snowfall forecast for 174hrs shows a major snowfall event for Pennsylvania and New York:



Where is the key to that image?
Quoting kmanislander:


I have favoured the CMC track from several days ago and still lean that way with Sandy passing just immediately West of Jamaica but East of the Cayman Islands. Cayman Brac and Little Cayman would get more of the system than Grand Cayman would if that happens

Which island is Pottery on?
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Lake Worth Pier on Friday morning based on GFS, winds 44 knots gusting to 61 knots.

Link


No surprise given how one sided to the west this system is going to be, if one believes the GFS.
Quoting ecupirate:
Im hoping it leaves Eastern NC alone. Irene was a mess and the last thing I want is to have to clean up trees again.


If the CMC and Euro are right, you will be cleaning up more than trees..close brush with NC according to those models..
Quoting WxLogic:


Pressure gradient due to the orientation of the E CONUS/ W ATL high to the N and NW of Sandy as it noses down on the W side prior to the next approaching TROF. That would be my explanation of the pooling of moisture on the N and W side of Sandy on those runs.


The local met here said that the pressure gradient could give us stronger winds that the wind field from Sandy. Makes sense.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Where are you i will put it up on my Weather blog on FB

I'm in Arcadia, Kingston, Jmaica.
Quoting Grothar:
FIM9 as it crosses Jamaica.




The FIM as is moves into the Bahamas.




Again the only thing I do not understand with this system, is that each model has the worst weather and winds in the NW quadrant rather than the NE. I wonder is anyone could explain why.

It's Irish. lol
If you have FB go to this Link
Quoting nigel20:

I'm in Arcadia, Kingston, Jmaica.
Quoting ncstorm:


Sandy is coming..

Yes indeed
I can't believe a storm by the name of Sandy might affect me...Hopefully TWC doesn't use those ugly names...
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can't believe a storm by the name of Sandy might affect me...Hopefully TWC doesn't use those ugly names...


Timing Timing Timing

Sandy would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK EARLIER.

Sandy would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK LATER.

Timing Timing Timing

Some deep digging trough action going on here, as the CPC takes excerpts from all seven major models and suggests strong trough action going on here. How in the world can this system affect Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard? Answer: It can't.



This system will only be a threat to Jamaica, Cayman, Cuba, and the Bahamas where is could be destructive with winds and heavy rain, and even possibly hurricane conditions. CONUS--I think you are out of the woods with this one.

Timing Timing Timing
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can't believe a storm by the name of Sandy might affect me...Hopefully TWC doesn't use those ugly names...


"You betta shape up, because you need a plan"
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If you have FB go to this Link

Thanks much!
the NHC track is east of the models but yet the HPC is west of the GFS..didnt they have a conference call..arent these agencies suppose to come to a mutual agreement when it comes to hurricanes?
If you get more good ones i will put them up!
Quoting nigel20:

Thanks much!
Quoting bigwes6844:
SANDY SHOULD BE UP TO 60 MPH AT 5 EDT. RI IS HAPPENING


no it isn't.
Quoting nigel20:

Yes indeed


You guys stay safe down there and hunker down..the islands are first up to the plate..
Quoting ncstorm:


"You betta shape up, because you need a plan"
I'm going grocery shopping today and Friday.I just spent 9,000 for this party which is why I'm angry if it were to occur.I see that the GFS is trying to sneak some snow in my area.I'm not beleiving that right now because mid week highs will be in the 80's.
So she from 997 to now 995MB!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which island is Pottery on?


Trinidad
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm going grocery shopping today and Friday.I just spent 9,000 for this party which is why I'm angry if it were to occur.I see that the GFS is trying to sneak some snow in my area.I'm not beleiving that right now because mid week highs will be in the 80's.


Wow..that is some party! Hope the GFS stays out to sea...all we can do is wait and see..
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 13:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 13:44:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13%uFFFD39'N 77%uFFFD48'W (13.65N 77.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 308 miles (495 km) to the SSW (193%uFFFD) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,408m (4,619ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the ESE (122%uFFFD) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143%uFFFD at 43kts (From the SE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (82%uFFFD) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17%uFFFDC (63%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20%uFFFDC (68%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17%uFFFDC (63%uFFFDF)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:30Z
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 6 nautical miles to the SW (220%uFFFD) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Heavy convection next to flight level center

SFC center and flight level center is 6 miles closer than they were at the last vortex. That is a sign of increased organization. Flight level winds have also increased to 61mph, which could translate to about 50mph. The pressure is also slowly starting to come down, that's a two mb drop since the last vortex message. The NHC will keep it at 45mph, but it's slowly starting to become better organized.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 13:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 13:44:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13%uFFFD39'N 77%uFFFD48'W (13.65N 77.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 308 miles (495 km) to the SSW (193%uFFFD) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,408m (4,619ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the ESE (122%uFFFD) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143%uFFFD at 43kts (From the SE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (82%uFFFD) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17%uFFFDC (63%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20%uFFFDC (68%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17%uFFFDC (63%uFFFDF)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:30Z
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 6 nautical miles to the SW (220%uFFFD) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Heavy convection next to flight level center

SFC center and flight level center is 6 miles closer than they were at the last vortex. That is a sign of increased organization. Flight level winds have also increased to 61mph, which could translate to about 50mph. The pressure is also slowly starting to come down, that's a two mb drop since the last vortex message. The NHC will keep it at 45mph, but it's slowly starting to become better organized.


Looks like Jamaica will be dealing with a strengthening hurricane
I got chills.
They're multiplyin'.
And I'm losin' control.
'Cause the power you're supplyin',
It's electrifyin'!


Quoting ncstorm:


You guys stay safe down there and hunker down..the islands are first up to the plate..

will do.
Quoting ncstorm:


Wow..that is some party! Hope the GFS stays out to sea...all we can do is wait and see..
GFs has had a good track record this year.Upgrades did wonders.
677. 7544
could the cone shift west at 5pm
This map shows how the storm is quickly becoming aligned overhead. Yesterday, the 925 mb vort was significantly to the SW of the deep convection as was the surface low. Now, the convection and 925 mb vort are colocated.

Quoting kmanislander:


Looks like Jamaica will be dealing with a strengthening hurricane


Very possible, I hope people are ready for this to gear up in a hurry. I don't think it will intensify to a major hurricane, but there is a scary amount of TCHP belew her right now. All she needs to do now is develop a core and she will take off. Hopefully it will be sheared once it gets north of Cuba. This storm is certainly your traditional October cyclone. I do not see any reason why this won't be a hurricane when it passes Jamaica and Cuba.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm going grocery shopping today and Friday.I just spent 9,000 for this party which is why I'm angry if it were to occur.I see that the GFS is trying to sneak some snow in my area.I'm not beleiving that right now because mid week highs will be in the 80's.





My invitation must of gotten lost in the mail!
Quoting washingtonian115:
GFs has had a good track record this year.Upgrades did wonders.


not on Isaac..though..its a tie right now..

Euro-Isaac
GFS-Debby
Interesting that the HH is doubling back for another center pass already.
Quoting kmanislander:


Trinidad

Will that Island be effected greatly by Sandy?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





My invitation must of gotten lost in the mail!
Ditto!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Will that Island be effected greatly by Sandy?


Absolutely not. Trinidad is about 1500 miles away from us as the crow flies. Trinidad and Tobago are just off the South America coast below Barbados and near to Venezuela at the extreme SE corner of the Caribbean.
Breezy for sure here on Grand Cayman...Periods of showers with the rain...gusty winds since this morning
Quoting kmanislander:


Absolutely not. Trinidad is about 1500 miles away from us as the crow flies. Trinidad and Tobago are just off the South America coast below Barbados and near to Venezuela at the extreme SE corner of the Caribbean.

Who was it that was on Grand Cayman and that area. I thought it was Pottery, oops, my bad.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm going grocery shopping today and Friday.I just spent 9,000 for this party which is why I'm angry if it were to occur.I see that the GFS is trying to sneak some snow in my area.I'm not beleiving that right now because mid week highs will be in the 80's.


Wow i come back in for a minute and see this....
*Gulp*... $9000?
Now I'm REALLY hoping it doesnt snow by you.
What sort of halloween party is this?

Either way, the Euro would be worse for you, and the CMC would probably want to bring you a blizzard.
Root for the GFS Operational.

Also those in the southeast didnt belive the blizzard of '93 was coming because it was in the mid 70s and humid all week, and lows were in the 50s the night before.
So maybe you should think it is coming, because you know things never happen when you are thinking they will.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who was it that was on Grand Cayman and that area. I thought it was Pottery, oops, my bad.


Not sure. Too many bloggers to keep up with :-)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





My invitation must of gotten lost in the mail!
How could it have been lost if you weren't invited?.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD IS WHETHER OR
NOT THE TROF ENTERING THE ERN CONUS WILL INTERACT WITH SANDY. THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
SOLNS IN WRAPPING AN INTENSE SYSTEM NWWD FROM THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE ERN GLKS BY DAYS 7-8. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT
NEARLY AS ENTHUSIASTIC AND ARE AN ERN EXTREME WITH SANDY. THE MORE
ROBUST EC MEAN SUGGESTS A SLOWLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE ERN
CONUS TROF INTERACTION...WITH A TRACK CLOSE TO THE COAST BEFORE
COMING ONSHORE IN NEW ENGLAND AT 192H
. AGREE WITH HPC IN USING A
CONSENSUS APPROACH AT THIS TIME RANGE...KEEPING SANDY
OFFSHORE...BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THE EVENTUAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE DRAWN NWWD
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MID-ATLC REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Goodnight all. Stay safe and get prepared NOW!!!!
Dropsonde measured a pressure of 995mb with a 22mph SFC wind, so 994-995 is about right.
Quoting kmanislander:


Not sure. Too many bloggers to keep up with :-)

Hence why I got confused where Pottery lived.
Errrrr...
The GFS maybe right , but it's going to a far more to the left of where it's at the 6z , something tells me that this will become a very strong cat 4 or 5 monster , if it ri' s between now and Cuba , please don't take me wrong , I don't want it , but it's seems like its our time , that is for all of Florida to be ready for this one ,despite what the NHC wants us to think they are guessers , not reality , reality is what Mother Nature is going to do , Mother Nature doesn't care about the NHC and their toys , ( ie their computers ) . Whose right the NHC or Mother Nature ! I will stick with Mother Nature , she's never wrong !
I took these about 9:25 AM. We are getting some steady light showers at the moment..


Vortex in again, still showing some misalignment of the SFC center and the flight level center, seems the two are dancing around each other.
NWS Miami is forecasting wind gusts to 44 MPH this week along the SE Florida Coast. 
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.7 7482401594785&lon=-80.13233756591796
NHC didn't upgrade 19L to Tony..
Quoting kmanislander:


Looks like Jamaica will be dealing with a strengthening hurricane


Starting to look that way, anywhere from 75mph - 90mph is my guess.
T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
R.I. FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.49n/77.69w
...SANDY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 23
Location: 13.8°N 77.8°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
706. 7544
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
NWS Miami is forecasting wind gusts to 44 MPH this week along the SE Florida Coast. 
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.7 7482401594785&lon=-80.13233756591796


yeap hmm could they might get a ts watch as early as tommorow ?
It may be to late for them to upgrade 19L to T.S status as conditions will be less favorable soon.
I think it is mainly due to a pressure gradient between Sandy and a High...so probably a wind advisory or maybe TS watch 
Quoting 7544:


yeap hmm could they might get a ts watch as early as tommorow ?


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC didn't upgrade 19L to Tony..

What a joke....Why not, no clear ASCAT or OSCAT pass.

This IS a TS....









How is this NOT TS Tony, can anyone explain this.... please!!!
Now up to the 10 to 20%!
Storm 200 miles off Miami, but 34 kt winds in the NW quadrant are out 300 miles

Forecast valid 26/1200z 25.6n 76.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...300ne 240se 100sw 300nw.
Quoting washingtonian115:
How could it have been lost if you weren't invited?.






I'm wounded!
Within reason, I don't care much about the blow, I care about the rain. Florida doesn't need any more rain from Orlando south. You can bet ACOI is watching closely. Be interesting to see if they react with greater discharge volume in anticipation.

Anyone read Bill McKibben's Eaarth?

I was sent a very interesting piece, at least to me, that offered some thought provoking comments that named the McKibben book. It is long, 9 pages when I saved it to word, but interesting. I was thinking there are some here that might enjoy the read. A portion of the piece;

Wake Up! Our World Is Dying and We're All in Denial by Mary Pipher

Had we been in a trance? I wanted to shout, "Wake up! Please wake up! Our old future is gone. Matters are urgent. We have to do something now." October 21, 2012

We live in a culture of denial, especially about the grim reality of climate change. Sure, we want to savor the occasional shrimp cocktail without having to brood about ruined mangroves, but we can%u2019t solve a problem we can%u2019t face.

I don't like to think about global environmental problems, and neither do you. Yet we can't deal with problems we can't face. Isak Dinesen wrote, "All sorrows can be borne if put into a story." Here's my story. In the cataclysmic summer of 2010, I experienced what environmentalists call the "'Oh shit!' moment." At that time, the earth was experiencing its warmest decade, its warmest year, and the warmest April, May, and June on record. In 2010, Pakistan hit its record high (129 degrees), as did Russia (111 degrees). For the first time in memory, lightning ignited fires in the peat bogs of Russia, and these fires spread to the wheat fields further south. As doctors from Moscow rode to the rescue of heat and smoke victims, they fainted in their non-air-conditioned ambulances. In July, the heat index in my town, Lincoln, Nebraska, reached 115 degrees for several days in a row. Our planet and all living beings seemed to be gasping for breath.

That same month, I read Bill McKibben's Eaarth, in which he argues that our familiar Earth has vanished and that we now live on a new planet, Eaarth, with a rapidly changing ecology. He writes that without immediate action, our accustomed ways of life will disappear, not in our grandchildren's adulthoods, but in the lifetimes of middle-aged people alive today. We don't have 50 years to save our environment; we have the next decade.

The rest is HERE.