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Rita pushing inland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:51 PM GMT on September 24, 2005

Rita continues to push inland, and is now a tropical storm. Many of the reporting stations failed during the height of the storm, so, as usual for a landfalling hurricane, we have little wind data. At the height of the storm, Port Arthur reported winds of 91 mph, gusting to 116. Beaumont had winds of 64 mph, gusting to 104. Houston had winds of 40 mph, gusting to 56, and New Orleans reported wind gusts as high as 40 mph.

Radar estimates of rain indicate that over a foot of rain has fallen in some areas. Expect an additional 6 - 8 inches of rain per day to fall during the next three days along Rita's path, with up to 25 inches falling in isolated areas. Fortunately, the regions most likely to be affected are under moderate to extreme drought conditions. Major flooding is already occurring on some rivers, but it will take a long time for many other rivers to come up to flood stage. The Mississippi is over 30 feet below flood stage in some places. Flash flooding along creeks and street flooding from excessive rains will be a problem everywhere, however. In addition, storm surge flooding was severe in Southwest Louisiana, and the surge penetrated over 40 miles inland in some areas. Exact storm surge height information is still unavailable. The surge will be slow to retreat, due to the strong onshore winds still affecting the coast.

Figure 1.Drought conditions exist over most of the areas affected by Hurricane Rita.

Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Rita.

Where will Rita go?
Most of the latest model runs show Rita making a anti-cyclonic loop over northeastern Texas and central Louisiana, then perhaps heading back south to punish the landfall area five days from now. She may even move back over the waters of the Gulf. She would no longer be a tropical cyclone at that point, and redevelopment is not expected.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large non-tropical low pressure system near Bermuda has changed little the past day, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Monday or Tuesday. This system is expected to move little. A well-organized tropical disturbance near 11N 33W, off the coast of Africa, has a surface circulation and some deep convection. This system has the potential for development the next few days as it moves westward over the mid-Atlantic. High wind shear of 20 knots will keep the system from developing today. Long range models indicate that this disturbance will likely recurve to the northeast when it reaches the mid-Atlantic Ocean.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Considering how much dry air entered the storm during the last day, I think it showed a lot of resiliance to land as a category 3.
Posted By: SaymoBEEL at 1:14 PM CDT on September 24, 2005.
Yes, Everytime I watch TWC, I think of him.

I remember last night some reporter saying something about a last minute turn to the North. He didn't know what we had been seeing since the day before.

I think there is a story behind why Jim Cantore was in Houston instead of the state line. When he said he had never covered a hurricane from a city, it spoke volumes to me.
mzt, it was cuase for puposes a cat 4. she had a pressure of 930mbs. thats cat 4 pressure and had she not had the dry air and a full eye wall i am sure we would have seen winds in the 130-145 range.
It was always a tornado. Dr. Fujita and his colleagues from the University of Chicago performed a survey on it the day after, and determined it was a 16 mile long F5, with a peak width of between a quarter and half a mile. However, the F5 rating is not based on the damage in Plainfield. In fact, no building sustained damage higher then high-end F4. I talked with Brian Smith, the warning coordinating meteorologist at the NWS office in Omaha, NE, and a member of the Plainfield survey team, at Tom Skilling's Fermilab Tornado and Severe Storm Seminar. He said that the F5 rating was based on the corn fields NW of town, along and just off of Rt. 30, most of which the plants were mature and either ripped out of the ground or reduced to 1 inch or less of stubble. Also, did you know that Dr. Fujita found a car that had essentially floated about one foot off the ground for 1/2 mile inside the tornado. Theoretically, if you were in the car, you could have buckled up and taken a safe ride inside the tornado.
They were talking about the unusual pressure/wind numbers on TWC this morning. Seemed to dismiss it without much explanation.
Well it didnt take the conspiracy theorists long to come up with alternant explanations For Katrina. Why is so difficult to accept the power of nature?
rita made landfall with a pressure of 930-934 range. that makes her the 8th most intense storm to hit the us.

this is based on pressure alone check out the list

The pressure was 937 MB. She's lucky 13.
Sorry, she's 14th.
torn once the ey started making landfall they only extarpulated or etimated the pressure as they could not fly directly toi the cenetr. it is lower than 937 but if u want 937 make it 937. still strongets cat3 on the list
No argument there, Lefty. Still think she may have been 135 based on those really nasty winds outside the eyewall.
there is a live feed from KHOU of damage from the air.
wow i was doing some reading and a ts hit southern california in 1939
There was a cat. 1 hurricane durings the 1800s (I think it was the 1850s) that struck So. Cal.
LOL tornado, i'd never heard that one. I did have a car parked outside (new, wouldn't you know it) that had a piece of foam insulation pushed through the windshield into the back seat. Now, there's no way you or I could do that, the foam would crumble first. Scary...
None of the 2005 Hurricanes are on the list. Dennis (942 MB), Katrina (918 MB), and Rita (937 MB) will all rank in the top 20.
hey sn, not to bad but this is the texas coast, the clean side of the storm. i am worried what we will see whn we get to the dirty part of the storm.
Im betting there will be some revisions on the pressure.
I also heard (I believe it was from Tom Skilling) that a slab of concrete was transported half a mile.
I wish the media would get off of who "dodged the bullet" and report on where the real news is...LOUSIANA.
yea, I agree. I think we are going to see alot of damage in LA.
I have been lurking for the last few days and find everyone's opinion's interesting. Take a look at this link and look on the right at the Daily Weather Pic.

Can you believe it?

sn, its only galveston , man i though this was furtehr up the coast. i think it will be devstating when we see the la coast
snicker...what is cardboard over a window supposed to do???
he put cardboard over his windows? whats that gonna do lol
Adds a new meaning to "board" up your windows.
Reminds me of the guy that used fed ex boxes to furnish his apt. BTW, FE is now trying to sue him for misuse of FE boxes.lol
Hard to believe that Fujita didn't see F5 structure damage. I know there was nothing left of some homes but the concrete pads they used to stand on. But, then again, maybe an F4 would do that too. Kinda like the difference between a cat4 and cat5 hurricane. Don't really want to be in the path of either one...
just look at the media coverage, all over galveston and they bearley had any damage. we have yet to see the damage in la.
When it comes to F4 and F5 tornadoes, you have a choice: Would you rather be crushed to death under the debris of your home (F4); or, would you rather be blown out of your home and thrown to your death (F5)?

The construction on the homes that were swept away may not have been well-attached to their foundations, only warranting an F4 rating, but the corn made it F5.
Lake Charles looks bad.
hey sunshine, love the link - funniest story/pic yet out of this one

btw, no sign yet of stall or loop, Rita is coming north
What do you think the damage will be in Abbeyville, LA. That's where CatChaser claimed to be.
oh yeah, once u cross over to the dirty side it will be like night and day. remebr all the devestation from katrina other than nola happned on the dirty side. we have not seen anyhting other than some clips from lake charles of the dirty side.
Although I agree, the high school may have been F4 or F5 (Fujita rated it F3), and the apartments in Crest Hill may have been F4 (Fujita rated it F3). But, I'm not really going to argue with the guy that created the scale over the use of it, and, no matter which way you slice it, it was still an F5, still killed 29 people, still injured 350, and still caused $165,000,000 in damage.
LOL Tornadoty. Your classic Lose/Lose scenario. All I can tell you is that it left an impact one me. When the sirens go off, I get the family into the basement pronto. (Sadly, I usually then go stupidly back outside to look for a funnel...)
I hate to admit it but I think the media is covering other places except LA because they have received so much nagging from their audience over coverage of Katrina and New Orleans flooding, that they are covering TX. But then if I think about it the media doesn't really care what people think about them. So who knows!
If you're familiar with the area, you also know that they rebuilt all those homes, the area is currenlty in a housing boom area.

But they rebuilt a bunch of 'em without basements...
Here in Schererville (down Rt. 30 just over the IL/IN border), we had a really severe supercell two summers ago (the one that hit Lansing). My estimate is we had 100 MPH (in twisting microbursts) with tennis ball-sized hail falling in those winds. Our neighborhood had some of the worst damage of the entire area. Not quite an F5 tornado, but still enough to get me nervous during storms (especially since my mom and I were sitting in our minivan locked out of the garage because the power was out during the height of the storm).
yeah i am watchng the helicopter ideo and they were like tx/la border and i was like man not to bad. we might have dodged a bullet afterall than i realise its fraking galveston. we all knew last night galveston would not be that abd. i am just nagry cause as they watch the video they are like damage is not as bad a sfeared and i am like yea in galveston. show us the durty side and say that
I was out there last February for a storm-spotting lecture at Plainfield Central.

I've also been to Utica, went last spring break, saw the memorial, most of buildings still standing fixed, from pictures right after storm, looks like a lot of rebuilding to do.
Utica's not the richest community in the world either.
Isn't there a blog somewhere for tornados? Or a tornado chat room?
Your area's growth is like our area's: ON MAJOR STEROIDS. Luckily, most people out here are building with basements.
LOL Cosmic. Many apologies.
Actually, is there?
They are going to need help down the road in Utica. Also, did you know that there was an even bigger tornado that formed from the same supercell a half-mile NE of Utica. It was a half-mile wide for most of its life, and, though rated F2 because it did not strike any homes, may, according to the NWS officials, have had the potential to produce F4-F5 damage. Imagine that going through Utica or Plainfield or Schererville...
There are tornado chat rooms. Just googled "tornado chat" and came up with quite a few. Don't know if there's anybody in them though.
If you want to chicagowatcher, we can move tornado talk to my blog.
Next investigative area AAL982005 Link
Any thoughts on the low near Bermuda or waves off Africa?

- C
sorry to bother you guys, but i was wondering if anyone knows the exact location of landfall and wind speed/cat? Thanks to all
The Pug believes whats left of Rita will head north then east accross Arkansas and thru Tennnessee. This would work out well for those of us in West Tennessee because the only rains we have had this summer have been provided by hurricanes. If this prediction is true it will be bad for our cotton farmers who are entering harvest. I hope they get the cotton in fast. It has been so dry and hot here this summer. More convective weather on the horizon? Pug says 3 More hurricanes to strike US this season. Good chance we run out of names this year.
LOL I'll leave y'all alone then, since our tornado chat isn't wanted.
Will go haloween costume shopping instead.
Afternoon all. It looks like we may get a break here with any thing that does develop over the next week or so as it looks like the high that blocks Nward movement will have a big hole in it per most models.

I geuss the winds are still too high to get any reall Lake Charles/Port Arthur/Beumont footage.
Things are slow right now CW, You don't need to run off with your nado talk.:)
Does anyone have that great NASA link that had the very detailed satellite images after Katrina. Maybe it has the same now for Rita.
just an FYI..it looks like by the end of next week a front is going to get hung up over the Gulf and through Florida..The GFS is starting to develop some waves along this front..As we move into October this area becomes prime for tropical development as old fronts stall..

Also some video of Lake Charles coming in..Very bad there, that part of the coast of LA was ground zero and we are gonna see some bad destruction in those parts from surge and wind...
WG03 do you have a link you are watching for that footage? or are you wathching the news channels?
Wow that was frustrating!

Only lost my cable connections and internet in Baton Rouge. We watched the transformer flashes going off all night last night.

Hope everyone on the boards came through just fine.
The cardboard is to shield your eyes from witnessing the flying Geraldos.
Oh SJ on CNN they had a video that someone shot from Lake Charles showing the surge..And this women on the phone talking about how bad it was..I been surfing around as I have just got home looking for some stuff..It will slowly come in today as some areas over there along the LA coast are alittle isolated.
Weatherguy.....I always thought that the prime area for development in October is the SW Caribbean? Also, would you think that anything that started in the Gulf for the rest of this year would have a problem getting Major...with the cooler waters after Katrina and Rita. Your thoughts.
Report from Terrebonne Parish or should I say the "lost Parish"

The damage for Rita was much more extensive here than for Katrina. It was ripping last night. We have coastal flooding and waters still rising in the lower lying areas of Terrebonne Parish. Roads turning into bayous for people to launch their boats on. Thousands have water in there homes. We will survive it just like we always have without state and federal help.

We took in many many NOLA evacuees, and as a community banded together to feed and cloth well over 2000 people. FEMA nor the Red Cross never showed up at one of the shelters we set up for the NOLA Katrina victims. That's ok we provided what was need because of our community spirit.

Ohh and FYI the report from Shepard Smith on FOX that Rita was hitting sparsely populated areas of LA such as Terrebonne Parish is WRONG. In Houma alone we are well over 100K in population then add in all the people that have whole families living with them from NOLA and all our rural communities.

I'm lucky, I have more damage but will not flood. Will winter ever get here?

Yes the Carribean also, because of the same reasoning, once you get these old troughs to come down and stall that is when we get development..In a normal season I would say yes Cosmic..LOL..but the waters are still relatively warm especially if we get something coming out of the W.Carr. and into the Gulf where we havent had much activity..True I doubt we will see anymore CAT4 or 5's in the Gulf this year...I hope..:)
Does anyone have computer models or anything for the two other waves Dr. Masters mentioned?
hmfynn - none of the major models are doing much with either of those systems at this point. Here is a link to a collection of models so you can keep an eye on the situation (models can and do change): Link
"just look at the media coverage, all over galveston and they bearley had any damage. we have yet to see the damage in la."

Lefty, you were bitching and moaning earlier when I said there was minimal damage about how bad Galveston was hit with wind/fire. Even one home destroyed in Galveston and one person burned is significant.................right?????????

Let's not set double standards.. I think they should cover the "catastrophic" damage in Galveston and especially the window damage in Houston..
The only way I see another cat. 4 or 5 in the Gulf is if
A) It goes through the Bay of Campeche like Beulah or
B) It takes a path similar to Charley.
I don't think I'd discount a chance of redevelopment. Anyone recall Ivan's werid journey after landfall last year?

I think the media is focusing on galveston and Houston because it's all they have right now. Once they can get better pictures of the hardest hit area I think you'll see it. At least I hope so... how many times can they show that fire from last night and NOLA flooding AGAIN?
** SIGNIFICANT UPDATE ** I just has an approximately 18 inch branch at the top of one of my trees and it just blew off. I'm in east central tx near B/CS. I have to call the news so they can see the significant damage.

No rain yet by the way...

I heard earlier that Abbeville was the staging area for the rescue operations so it must be relatively ok.
That's 18in long and approximately 1/4 inch in diameter.

And it was either dormint or rotten..

That's cruel and insensitive, wxwatcher. News is that Cameron Parish is leveled.
SHe has turned NE. Wonder how much longer til we see that ENE/E movement? I am also suprised that she is not pulling more bands in off the Gulf to her SW
With the media, there's something else there other than they don't have anything else to cover. Anyone notice that the Mississippi gulf coast rarely gets mention anymore? It's all about the empty city flooding again. Woopee. Same damage different day. Zero risk to humanity. In the meantime, the people in South Mississippi are living in freaking tents on the slabs of their homes. The hospital is a series of tents. Walmart even set up a tent store but only this week. If they want to see real suffering, the human spirit emerging from the wreckage, mother nature run amok, all they have to do is pan over to the Ms. coast. But they don't. They all stop in New Orleans where they beat the story to death. They all seem to be more interested in social class and neighborhood distinctions instead of storm-related happenings. I don't get it.

To the post from Terrebonne Parish, glad y'all made it through with communications! My family has had the same experience with Red Cross and FEMA issues - they really don't help much in the smaller communities. Good of the many, I guess. But, it's interesting to me that the smaller communities had clear roads, fresh water from wells with generators, shared food/clothing, etc., all without outside help. They band together and make it happen instead of moaning that it doesn't. Beautiful to watch. By the way, my sister is a city official in a small Ms. town and when she called the Red Cross 3 days after the storm, they refused to come because "your economic council has refused to support us in the past." So this COUNTY of 15,000 was supposed to send regular graft to the Red Cross to get life-saving help later. Unbelievable.

Thanks for the vent. Glad you're ok.
And one other point. What lefty and some of the rest of you on here said about the media and seeing the damage... Why the hell is it that people are obsessed with the bad??? Why the hell not report from Houston and say "look around, there is no significant damage, people are returning to the city and getting on with their lives..back to you?" Just proves my theory that the media is obsessed with death/destruction. People living and good situtations are bad for the media. Wolf Blitzed is by far the worst when it comes to "dammit, I have to see the bodies."
More and more Beumont to Lake Charles footage coming in and they got hammered.
Redstick the people in MS have long been forgotten but you can bet your arse that as soon as the first shovel of dirt has been turned to rebuild the Casinos the media will be all over it. Like the smaller towns in LA, MS will rise again because we love our community and it's worth fighting for.

Red Cross refuses to open shelters here so we do it ourselves. When one shelter housing 450 evacuees(NOLA evacuees) called FEMA and Red Cross they got a "We'll call you back" We're still waiting on that call.

Flood waters are rising in places that have never flooded. The Parish jail was just evacuated.
My mom called the Red Cross Hotline to make our donation. After waiting for half an hour, they said that our call could not be taken and they hung up on us. Our money went to Catholic Charities.
LA, are you in a safe place? Is this a levee breach or something? Why is it still rising? I'm worried about you.
LaDobeLady......glad to hear that you and family are safe. I was thinking of you last night. Hope you stay dry. No flooding allowed. Damn ants.
Terrebonne Parish has FIVE waterways running through it. We only had "drainage" protection not storm protection. 3 of the 5 bayou areas suffered topping or breaching of the levees. The South winds are pushing and pushing the water in and there simply isn't anywhere for it to go. I "hope" we're safe. It has never flooded here in the 50 years this neighborhood has been here. The storm surge was much higher than predicted they got about 8ft in surge.
85. IKE
The GFS tries to develop something in the gulf around the end of the first week of October. Maybe off that cold front that stalls out.
WX we want the media to cover the bad because of things like RedSticks post. People choose to ignore the bad unless it is stuffed in their face. The past two years are the begining of at least a five year trend, if not more, of increased activity. Don't ignore the people that were really hurt by this storm. Beumont to Lake Charles and the surrounding areas. Showing the harshest side will also help some realize how serious these things can be as not everyone is aware of this.

And I agree Red, I want more MS coverage. I know that area got hammered and that is an are worth saving. NO is a lost cause with the increased tropical activity we will see over the next 5 to 10. We should cut our loses now, not to be harsh (only realistic), and concentrate on the area that we can help. We also need to really start looking at building codes that will help prevent this much damage. This needs to be done in an affordable fashion also. We are capable of these things if we put our effort to it. Kinda like we could get away from being oil dependant in 10 years if we put our effort to it. Hell, we went to the moon in 10.
LA, have you reported your location in case it gets worse? Or do you have a boat?
Thank you Cosmic. Andrew was much worse to go through as far as winds but we got more than was expected here. I'm so sick of hearing about NOLA even the "emergency" radio channel is only reporting NOLA crap. Who the hell is there to listen to it? I want to hear state wide coverage not just NOLA.
Redstick I live in the city of Houma. In a large subdivision. If we flood all of Houma will be gone. I'm lucky I live in the Northern part of the parish. We are monitoring it via our local TV station and will leave long before the waters get to us if necessary.
The govt know that we are already aware of the disaster in NOLA and they don't want to have to answer anymore questions about failure of infrastructure at all levels and that is why you are only getting NOLA coverage. One of our local stations here in Charleston did a report that the strippers were back in NO. For god's sake there has to be important news out there than that. Not dissing the strippers.lol. Just the coverage.
Stay safe LA. Glad to here from you. Sorry that was delayed due to my rants.
Good to hear, La. Sorry, I'm a worrywart - it's irritating even to me!
What kind of IQ must a person have to know there is a cat 5 storm in the gulf and not leave. Why do we need the government to tell people to leave? It boils down to common sense. If it were me, I'd just say there's a storm in the gulf, we don't know where it's going. That should be code for 'get the fu.k out of the gulf area.' PERIOD. If you stick around, you deserve what you get. I don't think we need 24 hour coverage on snapped trees. This is not out of the normal for Gulf states. Everyone knows the risks. I would cover more odd instances of weather, like a blizzard in Miami, or a hurricane in Washington state, or a major flood in Arizona.

Ask yourself deep down, what exactly is unexpected about a hurricane in the Gulf? The news is supposed to be something that will educate us as a whole. I think common sense educates us that hurricanes in the gulf will do damage somewhere. We don't need forecasters and media hyping and panicking a population without 100% certainty -- that's exactly what happened here except with about 25% certainty and frankly, they were wrong. Now we need to figure out why and move on. And you especially don't need to call for an evacuation unless you are certain with fuel prices now days. Ah , fu-k it, it aint gonna do any good arguing.
Our infrastructure is doing quite well because we rely on ourselves. Our sheriff's department purchased Duce and a halfs years ago for evacuations. We also have water patrols, our own sandbagging systems. When they need help they put it out on HTV and the community rises and goes to sandbagging. They also use inmates to fill the sandbags. I don't know if that's happening today since the jail flooded and they evaced them all.
What's up stormj. This a truly amazing, isn't it?
It's an interesting case study. Two posts one after the other on this blog. One showing the high end of the species. The other the low end. Darwin was right.
LA, it occurs to me that what you are experiencing right now is a story with everything: damage, destruction, successful government (local) involvement, control in the face of uncertainty, evacuation drama. And you are, what, an hour south of N.O.? Why aren't they turning their cameras to you? Sounds like a possible success story for Houma due to smart preparation and community spirit. Show 'em how it can be done!!!! Louisiana needs some favorable press these days. I'm proud of y'all! And will be praying.
Have not even finished reading your post WX, but they need to tell people to leave becuase we pay f'ing taxes. Only ask for a few things and one of those is safety.

Go ahead and wait for certainty with a cane WX. That is just shear ignorance. Evac Houston/Galveston in 24 to 48hrs.lmfao. Get a grip! And it is much much harder for the very poor in this country to evac, but your right who gives a $h!t about them right WX? And there are many many more poor people then you would every care to open your eyes to. Our pay rates are ridiculus. All so the fat pigs can get fatter.
what way will TD19 go if we do get TD19 in a few days?
I agree LA, that's how gov't is supposed to work. But Red, we've established that success sucks in the media. "We've got to see the bodies." - Blitzed
I am sure you do LA, I was not dissing your local infrastructure, only the commitment of the state, fed, and, Fema types commitment to the outlying areas. Same thing happened here during Hugo. N of Charleston got hit much harder then Charleston, even though it was bad in Charleston, so the surrounding areas started sending help to the areas to the N even though we still had our own problems.

What did you mean by that Cosmic?
Bush has already flown over to see the damage. Could someone pull Kathy away from the cartoons and let her know her state's under water?
TD 19 would probably out to sea
StormJunkie....it was not a reference to your posts. It was a reference to the high end(LaDobeLady) and another.
i would like to no would we get to W any time soon
We are 60 miles SW of NOLA.

I-10 from Lake Charles to Houston was at a standsill.

NOLA Interstate was closed

We were told to avoid Baton Rouge.

We didn't have options.
hey sj, i alreadt busted wx for the same bs. just so you know it takes 72 hours ormore to evac a city like houston. and it was a porr evac with problems but they still pretty much pulled it off. 48 hours won't give u enough time. by time u start the evac the storm would be hitting
Sorry, I'll bug out. Hang in there, La! And any others who are still in the danger zone...
Back to the topic of Ritas pressure making it among the strongest storms to make landfall in the US -

This business of comparing modern day storms where considerable data has been gathered, with storms of 50 or 100 years ago where data is very limited, reminds me of comparing the complete stats of one baseball player with one where little in known beyond a couple of games.

Take these two storms for example

Unnamed (N TX) 1932 cat 4 winds 145 941 mb

Audrey (SW LA, N TX) 1957 cat 4 winds 145 945 mb

If these two were measured with modern day technology, recon every few hours, how different the data might appear.
the point of the news is to inform. now it is ofcourse going to be dramatic as so are ratings. the point i made was they were watching video of galveston and saying it was not that bad after all when they had not been to the dirty side of the coast. wasn't i wanted to see it. just that untill u survey they areas affected u can't call it a dodged bullet
and wx is only angry cause the storm didn't hit him. talk about messed up
What's up Lefty! There will always be problems when you evac that many people, but all in all it went much better than the no evac in NO.

Just wondering cosmic, I did not really understand where you were headed with that. Thanks.
One more thing then I'll go....don't defend your decision, La. They aren't in it; you are. You know your area better than a blog, I promise! Can't be described from the inside. They can speculate but they'll never actually know. You sound like you have it under control and that's all that matters. Take good care.
I live in TN now but was born and raised in Westlake, LA. I have watched the national news three networks off and on all day. From what i can tell Houston is OK and did a good job evacuating and New Orleans is still flooded. Guess everything is just dandy in Westlake and "Port St. Charles". Was watching Fox and was wondering when the casinos were moved from Westlake and Lake Charles to Beaumont, TX. Also wonder if we will be tapping into those strategic oil reserves in Cameron that have never been mentioned. Wonder if the storm surge had any affect on the salt domes????
Red Stick...it was not a reference to you either. Stick around. We need more people like you on this blog.
LaDobeLady....since we're not getting much information from the national media. What would you say is the situation in your parish....and parishes to your west? Home damage? Loss of life? Flooding?
sarah, those storms were sp devestating caause there were no evacs and data to let people know they were comming. even the stats u showed could be wrong as tools for measuring things like wind speed in pressure were not always accurate.

the galveston storm if hit today would have been a dennis or a charley. so many people died casue they didn't know a cat 4 was headed at them. that key u forgot more than anything

now with that said u can't take away the fact that rita was a sub 940 storm. u don't see many storms hit the us sub 940. last storm to hit us sub 940 befor katrina was andrew
Oooo BRDennis, good question about the salt domes. They just said the Vermilion flowed backwards all the way up in Lafayette due to the surge so the chance of impact is great.

Ok, really leaving now....

And what is the importance.

Ya can always count on the locals for the real news.
chalrey was 941, stillnot sub 940
and ivan was 946. not sub 940.

now some one who foes thru nor easters every year i will tell you. a lower pressure storm is worse than a higher pressure storm. we lust these storms by wind speed and do not considfer pressure. now all the storms you mentioned and i mentioned were devestating in their own right. just remebr u don;t get many storms hit the us sub 940 and thowse 120mph winds might be a little decieving. we have not seen her devestation but when we do she will have left her own mark.
and andrew was later updated to be a cat 5 when it hit south florida.
hey sj u watching that vt game. we gonna win the national title this year. we have not been scored on yet boy

sorry off topic
I know how long it takes to evac, but why pull the trigger so early with MANDATORY evacuations when you're not 100% certain??? HELLO? It should have been voluntary with constant informing of what was out there -- that's it leave it at that. Wednesday this thing was already making the turn, yet mandatory evacuations continued. Why are so many so-called leaders afraid of jumping on TV and saying 'hey, we were wrong, come back.'

And yes lefty, the general sentiment here in drought stricken parts of TX is bitterness, and a sense that the NWS and NHC have their heads up their asses. Farmers who plowed fields anticipating rainfall are only going to lose more moisture. When you have a 100% chance of rain and don't get a drop and you're in a drought, then come tell me you won't be pissed. We are pissed and I'll say it again, WE WOULD HAVE WELCOMED RITA'S RAINS WITH OPEN ARMS.! (even if that meant dealing with some winds which were not, by the way, 140 mph as many of you were guessing last night).
wx we have been in a drought where i live to. we was suppose to get moisture from ophelia out here. but we didn't. u didn't seeme in here whinning about it.also with weather u are nevr 100 percent certain where the storm will go so u have to evac and eavc early so if there is a problem u can try tofix it. u don;t wait till the last minute

Wx...it may have started the turn but storms wobble and jog. Look at Hurricane Andrew. Evacuation has to start early. I live in S Fl and there is only one way out. North. I seriously dread the day we have a cat 4 or 5 barrelling this way. It would take a week to get out of Florida.
wx and thats why ur not in control of these desicions. let it go. ur worse than my 4 year old. in fact hse saw lil damage and galveston and her words was "daddy that storm was bad"

so true how the youth can see the big picture. ur living in a bubble worried bout ur little problems. some drought and some inconvience of an evac. when people are trapped in there homes waiting to be rescued in la. so sad wx. so sad
126. avlos
torndoty.... you are right the southwest gulf is HOT as is the caribbean.... fortunately the two areas are as optimal when it comes to outflow as say the central gulf... also of note the water temps are still really up there in the bahamas, i think we are very lucky this storm didnt begin its rapid intensification till after it passed the florida keys, Rita really timed its strength perfectly for us all, im not saying its not a bad storm, because it is, but it could have been much, much worse.
WX all of the model were clustered between Gal/Houston and Just E of the LA boarder most of the time. A 50 mile wobble W would have made all the difference in the world who got the worst of it. That is the nature of these storms for most areas. The angle of attack on this storm also made it hard to pinpoint a landfall. We have this same problem on the E coast as a small jog prior to a turn in the right storm can make a difference between a Miami land fall and a Cape Hatteras landfall. Houston did the right thing and next time they will do it better. Gas trucks stationed for the evac. Better evac routes and what not.

Salt dome info. They're used to store petroleum products. Very big. Very cool. They have had accidental punctures that drain huge lakes in an extremely short period of time.
lol wx so u have seen the damage from the la coast cuase i haven't seen any picture fromthere yet. thats the dirty side of the storm where the real damaged occure. now with that said i saw houses worth atleast a half million detroved on galveston island. i guess that is the high end govt housing.
WHY DOES THE WEATHER SERVICE INSIST ON ISSUING ALL OF ITS UPDATES IN ALL-CAPS as if they are still working with some 1950s Teletype machines.

I would be embarrassed if I worked at a place that continued typographic traditions like that. Makes me wonder what other ruts they are stuck in.
wanabe cause u have people like wx who comes in here making statements about hyp when poeple are trapped in flooded homes in la and whinning casue the nhc and nws couldn't forcast the exact track. last night and today was a abd day for alot of people and they ahve worse problems wx's gripes
WX make sure you watch when the footage come in from Winnie to Lake Charles and then imagine that is Galv/Houston. So many are ao good at showing their ignorance on these blogs.

Even myself once and a while.

Get a grip WX. Please learn from your ignorance.
sorry...but I don't think that we were the ones crying and moaning.
We did have a good time once I sent you to your room wannabe!

The ignorance abounds.

Off to cut the grass and go out for the night. Check in later.
peace sj. hit meup laterfor some halo or something
Oh settle down Bob, we got much more important things to worry about. Not to mention typing skills and etique are no sign of inteligence.
Any info on a dam that's causing concern?
Possible emergency release of water causing further evacuations.I picked up the end of the story on the B.B.C. in the U.K.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:40 PM GMT on September 24, 2005.

And what is the importance.

Ya can always count on the locals for the real news.

One of the largest strategic oil reserves are in salt domes between Hackberry, LA and Port Author, TX
SJ you are just as invincibly ignorant as ever
ok all be cool now what is all the lol about?
Another goofy question. Why does news media keep comparing damage in Beaumont with the Gulf Coast on MS? Don't they get the point that the wetlands absorbed the storm surge. If they want to a comparison to Waveland they need to fly over Johnson Bayou, Holly Beach and Cameron on the gulf coast in LA.
br so true. all they been doing is showing the coast of the clean side of the storm. i think they haven't been able to get the the dirty side becasue of the damage. in the comming days we will see that parts of the coast of la was devestated. the media can only go woth what they have
sorry off topic....

lefty....vt has to beat miami...do not see it happening...but I do think it will be a good game.

now on topic...what would you say is the best model for predicting new potential storms in the Atlantic? I was watching the accuweather guy on tv and he said there were 3 areas in the gulf that need to be watched. thanks!
Cool looking feeder bands coming up off the Gulf.

Its really pouring down here in P'cola

Here is the link I was talking about from accuweather.com Looks like we are in for a real busy next two weeks
I don't use accuweather because they want to pass this bill...Link
A bad feeder band is going through the Mississippi Delta with lots of mesocyclones. My mother-in-law just saw one go over. Her family is OK; it skipped over their house.

The same tornado just wiped out my wife's hometown. Several major buildings are gone just blocks away. One fatality, probably just a block or two away.
i would like to no how mean usa hurrican made landfall last year and i would to no how mean usa hurrican that made landfall this year any one no if do let me no ok
David, If by "mean" you mean strong, last year the strongest was Charlie. This year (so far) has been Katrina.
Lefty, do you think the NHC will keep Rita a 3 at landfall, or do you think the damage not reported yet from Cameron to Vermillion Bay will give them the excuse they need to promote Rita to a 4? A 937 mb pressure for a Cat 3 is just bogus.
Last year the strongest were Charlie 941 mb, Cat 4; Ivan 946 mb, cat 3; Jeanne 950 mb Cat 3; and Frances 960 mb Cat 2.
lefty, so true - we're only seeing footage from texas. Even I'm hearing pretty bad stories coming out of south of Abbeville, Dulac, Houma. Nothing at all from Cameron. And I'm on the other side of the world! You certainly get a different view with the net than the TV.
And one thing from these canes - my geography's getting damn impressive!
Thanks BrD. Whoa.

That bill is stupid as hell, why are we paying those idiot to go over stuff like this.
I think it is odd that we have not seen many 15mph + storms this year. Eveerything seems to be moving in slomo.
SJ...amazing,isn't it?
Hey, did ya'll know you can get the Wunderground Nexrad to zoom OUT further than 1x? I am out to .979, it makes it more like the NWS longrange. Pretty cool. Just keep dragging zoom boxes the entire size of the radar screen. Is there an eiasier way to do this? anyone?
Yes it is sngalla!
Local coverage link

StormJunkie that is YOUR Swift Boat Veteran For Truth contribution hard at wotk.
well it looks like to me so far we got 4 hurrican that made landfall this year and a lot more to go i think the way it is going this may go in to DEC and JAN too wow
Sorry SJ I cant spend all saturday here arguing with your invincible ignorance - if you tried really hard you might find that there are other things in life if you ever want to give up being a blog clown.
Wannabe it is both sides, that is my problem with your ignorance, you just don't get that. The more we argue over blaming the left or right only the less likely we are to fix anything. Get it?
Sorry David, I think I misunderstood you. you were asking how MANY hurricanes made landfall, not how strong. Is that correct? And if so, stsimon, would you be so kind. My dinner is ready.
I am here for the tropical systems wannabe. I enjoy studying them. Call it a hobby.

When we have the type of ignorant statements like you make I have to set you straight. Say my peace, because deep down you know you are a little ignorant to the world around you.
no i did not ask how storng this how mean mean that made landfall
and a lot more to go i think the way it is going this may go in to DEC and JAN too wow any one no on that one yet me no if you do

Has anyone heard from SWLAStormFanatic? The last time we communicated he was still in LC on Friday morning and refering to it as ground zero.
I wish they would get up some Lake Charles to Port Arthur live feeds.
i do not want to be lol but this is a cool year we had never had two cat 5 hurrican in one hurrican year could we see more cat 5 befor the hurrican year and i do not mean to be lol this asking a ? ok all that all i need to no
They're struggling to get into Lake Charles/Port Arthur.
Water is rising.
Does anyone have a good site that shows where high and low pressure sytems are across the US and Atlantic/Carribean? I have seen links here to them during discussions. I need to bookmark a good site. thanks
The KATC feed is back up.
KHOU just flew over downtown Beaumont. The damage is relatively minor.
does anyone know how Broussard La faired???
I am still willing to believe she really was a CAT3, and the anomaly with respect to sustained winds vs. central pressure was due to her being in a general low-pressure surrounding environment, plus the late breakdown of the inner eyewall (further spreading out of the pressure gradient). To bad we can not get pressure reading from the recons all along their path, in small increments, instead of just the lowest pressure found, then probably we would have seen this.

For example NDBC Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL currently reading 29.85 in, very far of from the storm center.

Considering the extremely tight pressure gradient found in hurricanes, there is no way we can get a precise picture of the true gradient field from ground-based stations and buoys, especially since they often get knocked off line when the storm approaches. Only the airborne recons can do that for us, along their lines of flight.

Does anyone know how often the recon flights record flight-level pressure, and how much of the data they report back to NHC?
I have a question that might seem a little ignorant...but hey, hence the name :-).

I'm a Houston native and as such have lots of friends and family down there. Houston has seen its fair share of horrible storm systems (non-tropical). Quite a large number of my friends tell me that they were terrified last night, because even though the wind was no higher than we get with some thunderstorms, there was a "compressing effect" that made it seem like the wind was hitting with a thunderous impact and seemingly making their homes compress.

I'm just wondering if that might be related to the pressure being so low, and if pressure has an impact on the destructive capability of the wind. Or if it could be attributed to something psychological...knowing there is this huge storm just east of you. A lot of them went through Alicia, and said this was more 'terrifying'.

Thanks a lot for any answers.
i say the 930mb was not right with winds at 125mph and i say the hurrican was a cat 4 or may be this mayb a low cat 5 and i say the wind in the hurrican was may 140mph a cat 4 to 160mph a cat 5 a 930mb can not have winds of 125mph the nhc is a lot of lol with this hurrican this time around any one right with me let me no if they are right with me

This is not the first year with 2 cat 5 storms.

1960 and 1961 come to mind, while we were last in a strong storm cycle.
I would like to thank SPOON for his T.V. link/webpage using the three local stations. That was one of the coolest uses of the internet I have ever seen in time of emergency. I was able to give local news to people from the effected area that they could not get where they were, using cell phones and IRLP. All of this from Virginia. Very cool, many thanks!
This blog and its regulars (less the TROLLS) are a great resource. Jeff should be proud of the discourse that occurs on his blog.

Trey P. (wunderground blog lurker and weather geek)
Without a time machine I dont see how we can accurately compare this strength of the strongest storms on record.
there is no way that Hurricane Ethel can have winds of 160mph with a 981 mb yes a 981mb hurrican with 160mph what is all the lol on that any one

I think the barametric pressue had a LOT to do with it.

I'm no expert, by any means..

When I was here with Ivan, We noticed that the water in the toilet bowl had been pushed down out of the toilet. We observed water coming in through the cracks of a weather proof door that wasn't in a storm wind.

I also felt AWEFUL..

I think it was a pressure thing.

TxWxAmateur - I'm betting more on the psychological, but lower pressure does affect the speed of sound in the atmosphere and so maybe also how we perceive sound: but this is pure speculation on my part, and I am no psyco-acoustics expert either.

My only experience in hurricanes is in small suburbs close to the beach, not big cities, so for me it was the deep roar of the ocean, soon overcome by the howling and whistling of the wind through trees and wires, the constant banging of any parts of buildings that are coming loose, and the really terrifying deep roar of the big gusts when your house starts to shake.
a 930mb hurrican or lower sould have a cat 5 winds like 175 am i right on that?

I think the in the dark landfall is MUCH worse. you hear these AWEFUL sounds and can't SEE where they are coming from or what it was.

Hi all

See, tornados ARE relevant, they're spawning from the cane!
Real simple. They just didnt have that much data.

My point about comparing modern storms to those more than 40 years ago
i think it has been a long time that there has been a cat 5 makeing landfall in the usa think that there only been may be 3 or 4 cat 5 making landfall in the usa or may be more any one no on that

1961, I am not seeing it, Hurricane Hattie, yes but where is the other? Carla had a min pressure of 936 mb when the 175 mph winds were estimated--the same essentially as Rita did making landfall with winds of 120 mph. A lot of wind speeds were exaggerated a generation ago., or in a more netural term, reported too high.

1960--the cat 5 winds were a reconnaisance estimate with Donna when she had a central pressure of 940 mb. When she came to the Keys with a pressure of 930 mb her top winds were estimated at 140 mph, when they had better observations.

And Ethel, the second claimed cat 5 storm is so questionable as to be absurd. A reconnaisce mission was sent after reports of squally weather in the central Gulf and strong west gales in a small area. What it found was a hurricane with a central pressure of 28.70 (972 mb) inches and the recon reported winds of 160. Perhaps they got at the edge of some mesocyclone or eddy, but there is just no way a central pressure of 972 mb can support cat 5 winds. Impossible. Impossible. The storm weakened to 981 mb a few hours later and was soon a tropical storm. No high swells consistent with a Cat 5 hurricane were ever observed in the Gulf. And 1960 may not have had satellites, but it was not the dark ages either--there is just no way a storm could intensify to Cat 5 status without being observed--it would take a minimum from depression to cat 5 status of 3 days.

Katrina (904 mb 175 mph) and Rita (897 mb 175 mph) were REAL cat 5s. A year with two storms like that is unprecedented in our records.
to be fair it is likely, and almost certain, that cat 5s happened during 1850-1960 that we didn't know about. Few ships would survive an encounter with the eyewall of a Cat 5. But the pressure readings we have for the claimed Cat 5 storms of 1960-1961 are accurate, and of the four cat 5 hurricanes claimed, only hurricane Hattie is supported by the pressure.
8888888889gg - I am not saying you are wrong, I guess we will probably never know, but I am trying to come up with an alternate explanation that makes sense out of this...

I guess I can't figure out a reason why NHC would deliberately lie on the low side, unless this is some way to keep their butts covered with all the people of Houston. I hope they are a lot more professional than that, though.
mjinpcola - Don't they ALWAYS come in the dark?;-(
Have been through dire straits yet again.
Desperate circumstances require desperate measures.
What do you think of my new plan:
All these diuretics I'd been fed. I was in such a spin I felt all at sea, but might have been over terra firma for all I knew. Yet it was certain that under such terrible tension I must "relieve myself" regardless. Imagine the indignity!
So, I thought...if the response to my outpourings is yet another massive imput of, for instance, polycyclic-diethylamine (resulting from the efforts to "get things straight"), then I would permit myself, next time, to be relieved all over the suppliers themselves.
And that if this happened frequently enough, they, (if only out of self-interest, let alone out of love), might finally stop feeding me these ghastly pathogens, and release me from the terrible cycle in which I am trapped.

Please...It's not personal...I'm only trying to survive.

Youre truly,
Your GlobalWeatherSystem

Dennis came in the daytime. So did Katrina.
If this link is anywhere close to accurate, it helps to explain
Hurricane Ethel

The pressure reading was taken when the storm was at 110.

199. code1
I'm with you there mjinpcola....between 2:30 and 3:30 that morning, I was wondering if we had made the right decision to stay!!
StSimonsIslandGAGuy - Just joking of course, but all of the ones I went through came at night, and it is worse at night than in the day, when you can't see what is going on and the power is out.

I guess Frances was an exception because it hung around so long, but if I recall correctly it too finally came ashore at night.
In my book "Atlantic Hurricanes" from 1964, it says about Ethel "Reports from the central Gulf of Mexico indicated an area of disturbed weather developing, and a ship reported west winds of 40 knots. Upon hearing that report, a reconaissance mission was prepared and dispatched, and reported a small tight circulation with a central pressure of 28.70 inches and a flight level wind of 160 mph. The storm was immediately named hurricane Ethel on this basis. The circulation lost force rapidly, weakening to a central pressure of 28.97 inches on their last pass through the eye. The ciculation continued to weaken, and made landfall the next day as a tropical storm...."
Cat 5 is 920 mb and under
Yes there is NO FRIKKIN WAY cammile had winds sustained at 190,not only that the pressure was 924 mb which is also a over exageration,I think any storm before the 80's could easily be both understated and overstated......
Hey, Chicagowatcher. If you didn't catch one of the earlier posts, if we have to, we'll talk tornadoes on my blog.
Jedkins, Camille's lowest pressure was 905 MB, and her landfall pressure was 909 MB.
Well Camille did have a landfalling pressure of 909 mb after all.....
Actually technically it is 918 mb but whaatever close enough,I don't remember the exact pressure cammile wasw but it didn't have winds sustained at 190 as far as I am concerned,also I believe the NHC was conservative with rita,they said in one of their discussions I believe,that the recon found winds another 5 to 10 knots higher,also they had a peak surface wind gust to 238 which is truly out of this world lol,that obviously states that before about 1980 measurements could have been off or exagerated.
Ok I was off but the 190 thing is a bit much I think ritas winds were stronger for sure though over the gulf.
was watching the news and they said what i stated earlier. we only have little reports of the coastal areas where she made landfall. thats where all the detruction is. in the comming days we will see her full wrath. the stories will be like those of ivan. i feel for those poor people who stayed on the coast forthis monster

besides katrina , rita was the most intense, by pressure, to hit the us since andrew. dennise had a pressure of 943 at landfall. rita was 937 and that was extrapulated byt recon a few miles from the center so it is probly a couple mbs lower. don;t think she was a cake walk. when we see what the coast looks like as they can not get there till maybe morning we will see this
I don't remember the exact pressure cammile wasw but it didn't have winds sustained at 190 as far as I am concerned,

I'll say it once again, peak pressure 905, landfall pressure 909, winds at leat 190 as evidenced by banding on the surface of the water.
I think all this talk about the winds being higher because of the pressure is bogus. There has not been significant cat 4 or 5 wind damage shown as it's all mostly flood damage. Plus, I have not seen one ground station that reported winds even close to cat 4 or 5 range. Did it ever occur to anyone that the absence of a strong high might have kept the pressure gradient lower than a typical 930mb storm?

Again, comparing hurricanes based on one dimension is asinine.
too many natural disasters, anyone care to line them up over the past couple of years worldwide? each decade sees differing amazing things, science is amazing.
If wind speeds were regularly exaggerated and pressure readings were practically nonexistent, we might as well toss out ALL hurricane data that is more than 40 years old.

So how does it make sense to compare data from modern storms with suspect data from historical storms?

As I said before, its like trying to figure out who was the better baseball player by comparing one with complete career stats with one where there is only a bit of data from a couple of games and a few anecdotal stories.
All over the reporting stations in the right-front quad were knocked off before the worst of the storm got to them.
i also looked back over some data on dennise. he was at 939 and winds of 135 a couple hours befor landfall but at landfall he had weakend to 943 and 120 mph

rita was 928-931 hours befor landfall with winds of 120mph. she came on shore with a pressure of 937 less than dennises pressure at landfall and when he had winds of 135. so i find it subjective to meassure a storm by winds. we should look at pressure for intesnity as its less subjective as winds. know one knows what ritas winds at the surface really were. only what we measured when we were in there. same thing when she was 897 over the ocean. and i am sure evry storm over the last 40 years with a sub 940 pressure were understated in wind speeds. remebr wind clasification is done by measured winds. i still can't find any storm sup 940 with winds below 130mph. just a thought
hurricane, no one has seen what the coastal cities that took the eye wall look like. have u seen those coastal cities. the problem is she was dissorginised so the detrsuction would be over a smaller area and we have not seen that area, but u could tell her power by the wind field. they had gusts to 90 100miles from the cenetr well befor landfall. thats huge. now when we see the coast we will see cat 4 and 5 damage.
Yes for all we know the florida keys hurricane could have had sustaind winds of 140 or 220 mph lol,we really don't know I think that data beyond 25 to 30 years ago could have been quite off.
all major news agencies stated they could not get to the coast due to so much damage and that they could not fly a helicopter to take areail footage due to the fact that there was a south wind of 40+ mph sustained over the east side of the circulation all day. thats a by product of her low pressure and tha fact that her pressure is still low, was 980 last i checked. so they assume tomm morning we will be able to get some footage of the la coast.
so at this point not one of us can measure this storms impact as of yet, and the flooding well inland we see should give u an idea of how bad the coast took it on the chin
Well dennis was weird,I believe because it went over cuba it no longer could mix down pwerfull winds efficiently,mobile alabama had gusts to only 55 mph and like 4 inches,we had peak gusts here near clearwater from outer bands at times 60 mph and 5 inches,dennis had a huge area of tropical storm force winds but ver little area of hurricane force winds in fact one side of the eyewall reported winds about what they were siad to be but the other was like category 1,and the eyewall was WAY too small for the rest of the storms size,
we only knew of the detrcution of katrina cause it was so large and affected major cities the news agencies were already in. most news agencies were in galveston or well inland in northern texas and la. now look at lake charles. its 3 hours from landfall and it took a pounding. imagine what the coast took
But the storm was worse near tampa then mobile,weird huh?
I'm sorta ignorant of the area where the dirty side of the storm hit. Compared to the MS areas where the dirty side of Kat hit, how many people/towns are in that area?
we did not get ariel shots of the gulf coats for 2 days. and we were all shocked at we we saw so in the comming days we will see destruction in a msaller sense but by no means did those poor coatsal communites not get hammered. we just don't know how bad. even at 120 stated by the nhc she is a cat 3 .
HurricaneSurvivor - I agree with you on your comment. Say we box in the eye of a hurricane about 50 miles square, where all the real action is. Then we would probably need pressure readings on a 1 mile grid to *really* get a good approximation of how tight those isobars are packed.

Zooming further out, there really wasn't any strong high pressure near this storm, the pressures were pretty low all around her, especially to the east.

With a really small storm it is a different story, you get a tight pressure gradient and a narrow swath of destruction, say like Charlie. But I was 60 miles from Charlie and I would describe our weather here as "breezy" when it was at it's closest.

We had far worse weather when tropical storm Gordon was parked for 2-3 days a couple of hundred miles away north of Key West, and their was a very strong high pressure north of us.
Well aI am a bit suprised how beaumont had gust to 105 and the damage was fairly minimal compared the kind of wind they had there.
so am i done with the hurrican for now and when could i see my next TD TS or hurrican i do not mean to be lol this a ? ok all if any one no this one let me no ok all
yeah jed.

chicago, she made landfall right at the birder of texas and la. on the la side. we have no footage from points east of port arthur east. thats the dirty side and prt arthur took a pounding and had major flooding and they we on the clean side. lake charles was on the dirty side but well inland and they took a pounding as well. huge surge on the lake
Leftyy.....the thing is, in that area there's not much there to destruct. So while I agree we'll see destruction...it won't be like looking at Biloxi or Gulfport. The biggest concern to me is that in this area there are some big refineries and petrochemical plants. Lots of toxic chemicals. This could possibly be a looming disaster, like the levees in NOLA. Conceivably worse.
beaumont has some sign damage. i been watching all day and they got pounded.
Hope the evac % was better than what was reported by the gov of MS after Kat hit. What with the media so geared on Houston, I hope western LA evac'd...
she did have a high to her north. thats what keppt her going west for days remebr. that ridge moved east allowing her to turn north. there was another high, weaker, to her east over se us for days. i am in va and we have had temps in the mid 90.s all week casue of it
So, like Cameron LA? Any word from there?
cosmic i neevr compared her to katrina or to the huge cities that got hit. and there are some decent size communities down there. the point is peoplebeen all here all day saying"i saw no major detsruction on tv", when we have yet to see the hardest hit areas. thats my point. till we see every area she touched we will not know how bad she was. but ur right , the populations dencity of thos areas katrina affected weremuch higher and that was the best part if u can say that of where she made landfall. had she hit galveston the surge would have wnet up the bay and just destroyed houston. so we were lucky on that one
yeah chicago. thats exactly where landfall was. and no word. news was saying today they couldn't get there. also could not fly helicopters as it was not safe. they hope to have ariel shots in the morning
Watching the video on CNN from Lake Charles shows trees down and some flooding in low lying areas that you would expect. The lake looked well within it's banks. Granted, there are trees down, but thats expected with a hurricane. One resident even said the winds were sporatic. That reminds me of Dennis. Like I said, the eye of Dennis went over my house and despite the higher winds it was sporatic. Ivan was far worse despite the eye making landfall a good 25 miles from my location. Ivan was 6 hours of steady intense punishment. Ivan took down over 20 trees in my yard, destroyed my house with wind and surge, and made me wish I would have left. Dennis was like a bad thunderstorm that got scary a time or two, but no real damage. I don't like scales or cones or destruction or any of that like, because every storm is different as there are too many variables. I'm glad Rita hasn't been as destructive as feared, but try telling that to the person who just happened to be the only one on their block who lost their house. :/

Fortunally, the area impacted has a large amount of marshland to absorb the impact of the storm surge. I feel when this is more researched and brought to light nature may have saved many of the residents from nature. :)
lefty - She did have a high steering her no doubt. You have been great at keeping us all informed, tracking the storm, decoding recons for folks...

So what were the surface pressure fields like around Rita near landfall? I've occasionally read NHC discussions for various storms that talked about the "pressure environment" around a storm, and how this affects storm formation and winds (sorry I did't take notes on which storms or when, just from memory).
survivor u need to flip thru the channels. parts of downtown lake charles were under 8 feet of water. next the airport the was completly detsroyed and parts of i-10 might have been detsroyed as well. u learn more in the next few day and when u get ariel shots. no ariel shots form anywhere excpet galveston today. so now when we see all of those areas affected we can say oh its like denis. right now its as assinin as using one measure to meausre the storm. don't u think
guy all i know si the reason they ahd sustained 40 mph winds all they ay to lake charles is cuase of the high over mexico and the one over ne, which happens to be a strong high. regardelss she was at 930 and sub 940. so we will see how those coastal areas fared come tomm and the days after
all survivor, fox had a live feed form a camreaman in lake charles last night. those woinds were not sporadic. when they lost the feed they were sustained arounf 100. and the lake did not stay in its banks. it flooded down town. we also lost alke charles radra and i don;t think we have that back yet. so winds must have been half decent lol
nope still no lake charles radar. so most likley the radra got damaged and that only happens when the winds get above 100. no reports of winds from lake charles cause all reporting stations either broke or were knocked off line.

now maybe i have seen more detsrcution than you casue i have 4 live feeds on my comp and cnn and fox news in the picture in picture and i flip to msnbc everyu now and than. so i am watching 7 different news agencies. not just 1. i have sen things on one i have yet to see on say fox or msnbc and likewise
We're starting to get a hint of it right now on the national news channels. The thing that I'm concerned about is destruction or damage done to refineries or what could be much worse...to the petrochemical plants filled with toxic chemicals. There were some of these on the dirty side of the storm that we haven't heard much from as yet.
now don't get me wrong. iam not saying we will see katrina destruction. just saying we need to wait till we see the whole picture befor we pass judgenet on the damagefrom this storm..
I remember the first day after Andrew, everyone was relieved that major damage had not taken place--Miami was still standing, and all the reporters left to go to Louisiana to see if New Orleans would be sunk. It was only later after Andrew finished with Louisiana and Katherine Hale gave her news conference that the media became aware of the disaster in south Dade county.

After Katrina, that Monday anyway, people had thought New Orleans had escaped--not even getting the western eye wall. Katrina had weakened to 'only' 918 mb and crashed into Mississippi--only after the levee breaks that night on 17th street and the slow uncovering of the disaster in Mississippi did it become known that the bullet was not dodged at all. So when a strong hurricane makes landfall, I tend not to take the first day's reporting too seriously, especially when the landfall itself and the strongest right eyewall and surge takes place away from major metro areas. Houston and Galveston dodged a disaster. Yay. But what happened in the bayou contry east of Cameron is as yet unknown.
yeah cosmic. i was thinkin that as well.i don;t want to pay 4.00 for gass again and we al;ready have a enviormental issue from katrina
so true st
and that andrew situation is the thing that keeps me sayign we neds to see how the little copmmunites and those on teh dirty side faired. we all saw images of homestead
Just on CNN. Natural gas pipeline rupture. Possible breach of storage tanks. In Henry Hub, LA. This one location supplies 1/3 of the natural gas to the United States. Not to mention how you deal with a big natural gas spill.
wow cosmic. if my gas bill gets any higher. thank good i only use my nat gas for heating my water
leftyy420 & StSimonsIslandGAGuy - You guys have some good points. Both government and the lapdog media have good reason to "accuentuate the positive" and spin away the negative. No getting out of reporting on N.O., but I still haven't seen any really good information on what really happened south of there in LA, just some scattered reports. We all heard that "the map would be redrawn", but I haven't yet seen the new map.
any news on the oil refineries? or the platforms off the coast? Looks like the tropics is going to be heating up with a few waves in the Atlantic and not much to get in their way from developing......
Governor I've drawn a Blanco sounded worried. She said it was a tenuous situation. They might have to flare it to deal with it. Not exactly sure what this means but it doesn't sound good.
axnt20 knhc 250005
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2005
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northeastern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from
the Equator to 32n. The following information is based on
satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.
...Special features...

Tropical Storm Rita is now centered near 32.1n 94.0w or about 25
miles south-southwest of Shreveport Louisiana at 2100 UTC.
It is moving north at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 980 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat3/wtnt23 knhc and the public advisory
under headers miatcpat3/wtnt33 knhc for more details. Rita has
continued to weaken as it moves inland. Rita should produce
torrential rain along its path. Scattered moderate convection
is from 31n-35n between 89w-94w.
An Atlantic Ocean 1005 mb low pressure center is near 31n62w
moving E at 10 kt. This low center is the remnant of T.D.
Philippe. Convection has dissipated near the center.
...Tropical waves...
A 1008 mb eastern Atlantic low is centered near 14n32w moving
west 10 kt. Further W...a tropical wave is along 37w south of
18n. Patches of widely scattered moderate convection are from
13n-19n between 27w-34w.
Tropical wave is along 61w south of 21n moving west 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Windward
Islands from 10n-13n between 59w-62w.
Caribbean tropical wave is along 73w south of 20n moving west 10
to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over
Hispaniola from 17n-21n between 69w-75w.
ITCZ is centered along 7n12w 13n25w 9n40w 8n50w 10n60w. In
addition to convection mentioned in the tropical wave section...
scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa
from 6n-14n between 12w-16w.
The Gulf of Mexico...
Rita is moving inland away from the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are
still greater than 20 kt over the NW Gulf...N of 26n and W of
87w. The entire Gulf has southerly winds. In the upper
levels... anticyclonic circulation is over the E Gulf near
26n89w. Anticyclonic flow covers the entire Gulf with
subsidence W of 93w. Expect the highest potential of convection
is the next 24 hour to be over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay
of Campeche...and over the the NE Gulf N of 27n.
The Caribbean Sea...
two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. A 1004 mb low is
over N Colombia near 7n73w. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is N of Lake Maracaibo from 10n-13n between
70w-73w. Patches of scattered moderate convection are inland
over Central America from W Panama to S Mexico. In the upper
levels...northerly anticyclonic flow is over the W Caribbean W
of 80w. A cyclonic circulation is further N over the Bahamas
near 25n73w. A trough extends S to Jamaica. An anticyclonic
circulation is NE of the Leeward Islands near 20n60w. A trough
extends S to Venezuela near 10n66w. Expect continued convection
with the tropical waves...and over Central America for the next
24 hours.
The Atlantic Ocean...
surface ridging is over the W Atlantic W of 70w. The remnants
of Philippe is over the central Atlantic near 31n62w. A 1028 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 35n34w. Surface easterly flow
is from 20n-30n E of 50w. In the upper levels... a cyclonic
circulation is over the central Atlantic near 14n46w. A large
anticyclonic circulation is off the coast of W Africa near
After Katrina, we starting hearing from FPL (Florida Power and Light) to cut back on electrical power consumption, since most of the power plants use natural gas and a shortage was feared. A couple of days after Katrina, there was an hours-long blackout in Cocoa, closing the UCF Cocoa campus. FPL announced it suddenly, as a "planned outage".

cosmic, they want tolight it on fire. omg
leftyy....she said that flaring it was one possible way to deal with it.
wow cosmic. thats wild
Watch CNN right now.
good pics chaser
her is some news on cnn i think you sould take a look at

'Significant damage' to Port Arthur oil refinery
Point being, Florida depends heavily on natural gas for electic power generation, so if there is a disruption, there could be problems.

When I used to live in NE Ohio, during the late seventies one winter we had two consecutive blizzards, and there was a national natural gas shortage. Businesses were ordered shut down, and schools were closed for a week. (If I recall correctly this was 1977). Big downer for the local economy.
looked up a quick article on sour natural gas. Evidently it's fairly common and flaring it is a common way to dispose of it as it's extremely poisonous. hmmm...
The great blizzard of Jan 26 1978 brought Cleveland's lowest pressure 28.26"
267. wxfan
BAROMETER here is down to 998.8. We've had 2 inches of rain in 4 hours. Up to 8 predicted. Winds 31 mph gusting to 46. I've lived in Arkansas all my life. NEVER have I seen pressure this low, this far in advance. The storm is still like 150 miles from me!
StSimonsIslandGAGuy - Good call, yeah, so it was 1978 then. I remember they recorded something like 115 mile winds at the airport in metro Cleveland on the south shore of Lake Erie.

Businesses and schools were ordered closed to conserve natural gas for residential heating all across NE Ohio.

My friends and I got bundled up, drove around in the storm, helped some people out of snow banks, and in general had a great time.
I'm waiting for someone to see that 980 mb pressure on Rita at 8 p.m. and declare it an upper Cat 1. Whoever has been saying that Rita was a 4/5 at landfall -- you do realize that would require stronger winds at the surface than were measured at flight level, right? And they have no reason to undercut the max winds in a storm, unless they have some sort of conspiracy going against coastal residents (maybe the NHC is secretly funded by the Nebraska tourism board!)

But then this is a blog in which one of the comments predicted max winds of 210 (how I don't know).

The Gulf storms have been pretty low in pressure related to their max wind speeds. Wonder why?

Also, if the non-tropical low that sucked in Phillipe earlier develops into a tropical or subtropical storm, does it retain Phillipe's name or does it get Stan?
I remember the storm vividly, at the time I was living in VA suburbs of DC and had gotten my first barometer less than 2 weeks earlier for my 9th birthday. It went down to 28.88 It was in the 60s at 3 am when this happened (the winds woke us all up) and that night by dinner time it was in the low teens. Only seen lower pressures since then twice, 28.66 on western part of eye of hurricane David in Sept 1979 and in the superstorm of 1993 28.86
You're a lucky guy CatChaser. Power and Internet connection in Abbeyville. Wow. You should go to the CNN correspondent that's in Abbeyville right now....and reporting no power at all in Abbeyville.
Storm pressures rise more slowly than the winds fall--friction causes the winds in the lower levels to drop quickly while the storm fills. Isabelle became a tropical storm with a 968 mb pressure and Katrina with a 965 mb pressure, Opal with a 972 mb pressure. So this is not unusual. Part of the reason landfalling tropical systems are such big tornado producers is that the winds in the mid levels drop much more slowly and the contrast between the strong winds at 5 or 10 K feet and the slower winds on the surface sets up shear and vortices.
980 is estimated and the system is no longer over water so the mechanisms are different. now if it was 980 over the waters be different story. thats what ur forgetting. a 980mb tropical system over land is different than a 980 tropical system over water
Lefty are there any reports on the oil refineries that got hit or anything? I know we had those links before the hurricane showing where they were..but dont know if they updated them or not.
Geraldo looks and sounds like he's been celebrating his survival(hic). Live on FOX.
I was speaking to the paranoia I've seen in the few weeks I've lurked on this blog. I'm sure at this point (10:32 EDT) Rita is, at most, a tropical depression and the HPC will probably take over advisories after the 11 p.m. package.
I am sory but that 115 mph crap you heard in cleaveland is way out of porportion,the two strongest non - tropical systems were the superstorm of 93 had gusts toped at 80 mph and the great new england blizzard that had supposed gusts to 85 or 90 mph,but data I believe is hard to trust before about 1980 as I said before but 115 mph in cleaveland,where did that come from the MSOT(Meteorological Society of Todlers?)lol siriously that is the sillyest thing I have ever heard unless it was a tornado.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy This site has a really good article on the Great Blizzard of 1978, with a lot of meteorological explanation:

I swear I recall reports of 100+ winds being recorded, but the article says 82 mph gusts in Cleveland.

I guess I getting old, google is my memory now...

u find any storm over open water with a sub 935 pressure and winds less than 130 i be happy to see it lol
I also remember 115 mph gusts being reported in the Ohio 1978 blizzard.
Jedkins we had gusts on st simons island of 95 mph and we had a lowest pressure of 28.86 and the center was around 28.70 just to the NW. The storm deepend further to 28.35 across the NE US.
yeah cat i looked at all of them. good stuff
Very cool link guygee!
Well the sperstorm was a super non tropical low,I believe the 95 mph winds because the data was from 93' but I do not believe the 82 mph winds at cleveland.
That is immpossible unless this world goes into a huge climactic change you will not see winds that high off of a mid - lattidue sytem it is completely silly.That is proof right there and that 980 mb storm being a category 5 that reports before the 80's can and sometimes are completely wrong.
If Rita just sits over the same general area for three or four days, and she weakens to a tropical depression and eventually starts to dissipate, when might she lose her eastern feeder bands?
Okay Lefty, how do you justify surface winds stronger than flight-level winds, because that's what you'd need to accept to say Rita was a 4/5 at landfall.
Well it couldn't have deepend further the strongest winds were in florida and the carolinas and florida had sirious tornado activity with it.
Well believe it or not but there was a sper non - tropical low that dumped snow and south texas last winter and gave wind gusts as high as 60 mph here in clearwater,very strange,it was a small system passed through quickly,and it was bitterely cold by florida standerds the next day.
Jedkins, the superstorm did deepen further, as it tracked to the NE. That the lowest pressures were recorded across NY and New England is undisputed.
I remeber reading about the great TX chrismas snow--amazing!
But the winds were not as strong there,maybe it's wind core was off shore or somethin.
mystery, maybe u didn't know but they for 3 days only subtracted 10 percent of lfight level wionds to determine surface winds. mainly becaue of her loe pressure. as soon as she strted to weken , or rise in pressure, they started using 20 percent. her flight level winds were the same or slightly less. using 10 percent she would have been 130. next they only sample the eye wall every 3 hours. so u r not getting a proper reading of the flight level winds. her t-number was 5.7-6.0. that equates to 130-145 winds at the surface. so she rose 3 mbs and they started using 20 percent instead of 10. i know casue i plotted every recon for 4 days. i have most recons saved to a file and be glad to post them if u like. u can see hr flight level winds were neevr over 129-135 kts even though they had her at 140 mph. her flight level winds were 129 kts and they bumped her down to 120mph. that is my point. she was still sub 935 and with fluight level winds of 129kts taking 10 percent off would sugest 130 mph at the surface. i don't make these things up. if u had been tracking the cane for 4 days u would have been just as suprised as i was when they dropped her to 120
Jedkins - I can't find much in the way of the records for the claimed 100+ winds for the blizzard of 1978, but here is a link with recorded windspeeds for the Great Storm of 1993:


Here are some recorded winds for that storm:

Recorded Wind Gusts
Mount Washington, NH 144
Franklin County, FL 110
Dry Tortugas, FL 109
Flattop Mountain, NC 101 mph

Even if you disregard the mountain-top readings, still very impressive 100+ winds in mountain-free Florida.

lol here a good one. pressure of 913mbs, flight level winds of 121kts yet she is a 145mp cat 4

A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z
here u go. pressure 914 still a 145 cat 4 maybe even a cat 5, gotta check the dates, but flight level winds still less than what they were yesterday when they claimed she was 120

A. 22/1745Z
B. 25 DEG 34 MIN N
89 DEG 01 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2333 M
F. 300 DEG 120 KT
G. 200 DEG 08 NM
H. 914 MB
I. 12 C/ 3050 M
J. 21 C/ 3056 M
K. 16 C/ NA
M. C015-50
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 29
Hello all. Yeah, typical 1 hr. or so away from landfall... lost power last nite @ 1 am - exact same time it went out for Katrina - 1am...thinking conspiracy by Entergy!

Had a wild ride last nite...got under long feeder band arced from Houma to well past Baton Rouge w/ several embedded T-storms - lightning, loud thunder, transformers blowing, torrential rain, winds sustained at 40-45 mph w/ gusts mostly 55-60 to as high as 65-70 and training effect - another 4.5" from 8:30 to midnite (ST-5.9"). And hell yeah I was out in it in my rainsuit getting the full experience of it all - got my eyes stung good and soaked right thru. Nothing new - did same in Katrina, Andrew, Camille, Betsy and every "lesser" storm - a long list - the tropics have sent this way in my 52 yrs. living in SE LA. Well ok, truth is my parents DID let me go outside when Betsy's eye came over us - a sight to behold - then back inside as those 130mph winds roared back in from the SW.

You bet we haven't seen the worst damage yet...I shudder to think what we'll see from Intracoastal City westward tomorrow w/ aerial surveys.
(copters had difficulty flying near Houma today - still had winds ripping 30-40 w/ gusts near 50 and Rita was by then almost 300 mi. away)
No, won't see MS coast type annihilation, cause immediate coast is marshlands - but populated areas are a few miles above and they must have been blasted. Not to mention the loss of marshland that afforded some protection from storm surge - won't be there for the next one.

LADobeLady - hello neighbor...have to disagree somewhat...structural damage from wind was far worse from Katrina (spent 8 days chainsawing trees) - yet we had no storm surge being on the "clean side" as Lefty refers to it. So yeah, lot worse for southern half Terrebonne w/ Rita. From what I've seen so far surge flooding has been comparable to Lili, maybe as much as Andrew - not sure. Effects are definitely nite/day on which side of storm you get. And of course, distance from eyewall.

Yes, cast my vote as "no confidence" along w/ everyone else regarding the pathetic media and what they choose to cover...and worse, how they portray it...ignorant self serving babbleheads. The real storyline of the Katrina disaster has yet to be accurately told. I'm sure Rita won't be enough to satisfy their bloodlust.

Yes Probably from those intense squalls with it,but that was an exceptional sytem,there was a reason why it was called a superstorm,because those sytems just can't generate those kind of winds normally,must have been a bit like a hurricane florida.
i don't make these things up. the way they ctaogorise them by wind speed is ubjective and thats the problem.

infact i just looked and she was a 160 cat 5 with both those recons. lol and u wonder why i was a little flustered wiht the 120 mph they claimed lol
Rain wouldn't be quite as intense but still similar to what a hurricane bring when you get an exceptional storm of that nature.
thanks doc. what a story man. glad ur alright
comeon maysterymeat. tell me where those flight level winds support 145-160 the nhc claimed. the flight leve winds were the same spedd and higher whn they claimed she was 120mph and 930mb pressure
ok mysterymeat don;t comment. but i got my facts straight. i don;t just watch the storms, i plot them out using every recon. i got most of them and alot oftime they pick and choose how much of the winds mix down based on t-numbers and other factors. she was atleast 130mph based onmy observations and the t-numbers. not making anything up
This is the first time in ages that a tropical storm is not somewhere in the Atlantic basin. The last time there was not a named system of tropical storm stength was before Jose formed on Aug 22nd.
and i am not calling a conspiracy, i am stating that the way we ctagorise them by wind speed and how they pick and choose the wind speed pretty much is subjective. now u see the evedicne i see. also the nhc is stubborn just like i am. i love them but they are stubborn. so if u would like more recons i can provide them for you. be more than happy.
i have just enough of an argument that she was 130-140 at landfall as i do to say she was weaker alot sooner. but i go by pressure for intensity and at 913 yes she is a cat 4 and porbly still a cat 5. but 930 is not a weak cat 3. thats a weak cat 4 and t-numbers of 5.7-6.0 support that
yeah st, but i fear this is juts a 3-5 day lull. thos temps in the tropics and the carribean are hott. we have awhile to go till its over
i guess i shot down mysterymeat. thanks for playing lol. no i am not a meterologist but i did stay at a holliday in last night lol
And the discussion from that vortex message said the 125 knot advisory intensity may be generous. It was probably the unusual pressure that kept it at 145 and not lower, since flight level winds were 121 knots, which should support an intensity in the 125 mph range. They estimated winds at 145 because they couldn't reconcile the 913 mb pressure, but they admit that might be a generous estimate.
Yeah you shot me down. I was fixing dinner. You win on account of I don't spend every waking moment of my life on this blog. Take a bow, lefty.
Here's a link where the oil industry gives some current info on the oil situation:



(please excuse the code if this doesn't work right - I'm experimenting)

Someone was asking about this a while back - don't know if you still need it.
mystery i am cooking dinner to. i don't stay here the whole time. i spend more time plotting storms and making local weather obs, and being a stay at home dad. just sayign that i have evidenc and not just some uneducated gues. just so you can see my point. that wind speed is subjective and a bad way to categorise these storms. its also not a true estimator of the actual wind speeds as it takes 4 obs over 6 hrs and than says what the wind speed are. now if we sample evry part of the eye wall every 30 minutes we would have a beetr grasp on these things. thats why we use t-numbers and quicksat sat to help us. now when she was 913 she had a t-number of 6-7 thats why she was 145. when she was 930 she had a t-number of 5.6-6.0, and mostly it was 5.8 thats 130 atleast. and when u look back at all storms u can not find 1, not 1 storm, with a pressure below 940 that has winds of 120. they even mentioned raising the windspeed in one disscussion but never did it. just a point
also msystery they choose what percent to take off. there should be a scale. anything less than 940 use 10 percent. something like that. the pressure went up 1mb and they started using 20 instead of 10 even though the recon ahd 4kts higher in winds. just anothe rhtough of mine
new post out by Dr. Masters
From what I can see, it looks like the industry is expecting to lose about 2/3 of their production of oil and natural gas over the first 10 days, with improvement out to 60 days at which time they are showing recovery.

This is just an estimate at this time.
Lefty...I for one am glad you have been challenging the NHC's, shall we say, discrepancy problem with the data - something just doesn't equate. But you know what? I'm guessing their own mets are struggling with it as well.

I draw 2 solutions...Either the data is flawed and/or the "sampling" method is....OR, we may be on the threshhold of learning some amazing characteristics of these Cat 5 SuperCanes.

Look at the life history of Rita...man, she truly spun up (almost) out-of-nowhere, steady building with excellent environment right from a td to the 3rd strongest hurricane in Atlantic Basin history (damn, now I'm questioning that!). Naw I'm kidding - Rita really powered up to her maximum potential.

But I think we need to examine what happened after peaking in the EWRC. I'm wondering if these SuperCanes expand their windfield in such a broad manner that, in its future existence, it cannot gather the higher speeds in a usual tight swath back around the eye. So you have a hurricane with a more gradual taper in it's wind profile and much wider ground area with say, what we saw reported 120-130 mph. Possibly the storm needs that low of a pressure to reign it all in.

Dunno...just food for thought.
doc the problem with me si that with the pressure what it was 930 u have to assume there are cat4 winds somewhere in the circulation. thye started using 20 percent in styead of the 10 they used since she was a cat 2. if they had used 10 she would have been 130-140 mph
Jedkins - I think that wind measurement is a fairly mature technology, so I am not sure why you mark pre-1980 measurements as being non-believable. Can you point out some post-1980 technological advance that led to significantly more accurate measurements? Also, 100+ mile winds areas not associated with tropical systems can and do take place over large land.

Anyways, here is a link to info on another storm that I vividly recall. It took place over Ohio in 1969 and had 100+ straight line winds in a squall covering a large area. We called it simply the "4th of July Storm", it was memorable in that it uprooted so many trees in the area, like around 20% of the total:


Wind damage was similar to that of a CAT 1 hurricane.
Oops, make that "Also, 100+ mile winds not associated with tropical systems can and do take place over large land areas.
guygee new dr.masters post.
thanks lefty!
Lefty...good point. 20 percent seems indicative of lack of confidence in the samples...or the methodology. I think we will see physical proof of actual wind speeds on the ground tomorrow. My neighbor works for Chevron, early flight over W Gulf facilities/Cameron tomorrow. Let you know what I hear.
RITA info. and questions:

Can anyone help me with figuring out where Rita went in relation to my dad's house? My dad and brother rode out the storm in Lumberton, TX and my brother reports being able to see some stars at times but they never actually experienced calm winds that would indicate they were in the eye - they had mostly winds out of the north the whole time.

My brother told me about how everything would just go black when the "big" winds would come. There was a little moonlight he could see during the sustained winds, but things would die down a bit then just go completely black before the howling gusts would come - were these the max winds on the inner western wall blowing so much rain that it blackened the sky? I told him since he could see stars and some clearing to the east at times, they may have been just inside the inner western wall. Are these the fastest winds in the hurricane? Are wind speeds higher on the west side or east side, or are they about the same? From the coordinates I have, they were about 7-9 miles to the west of the center of the eye. They were at 30.18N; 94.19W - is there anyway to determine exactly how far that is from where the center of the eye passed?

No damage to my dad's house - he just lost a lot of trees and two just barely missed his boat and truck. My mom's house in Kountze, TX was also affected....she HAD about 90 mature pine trees in the front yard, 3 are still standing. Fortunately, none landed on the house.