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Rita may stall over Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:54 AM GMT on September 22, 2005

The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.

The 7:09 pm eye report from the hurricane hunters found a 897 mb pressure and flight level winds of 161 knots (186 mph). This pressure makes Rita the 3rd strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Tonight, Rita will be passing over the Loop Current, a warm eddy of water in the Gulf that aided Katrina's growth to a Category 5 hurricane. Fueled by this pool of deep warm water and an almost ideal upper level wind environment, Rita should continue to intensify until Thursday morning, when she will pass beyond the Loop Current. The eye has shrunk to 20 nm diameter from 25 nm earlier this afternoon. By the time the eye shrinks down to 10 nm, the eyewall will collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle begin, putting an end to this intensification cycle. With potentially another 12 hours to go before this happens, Rita could challenge Gilbert's 888 mb pressure record.

The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Rita (897 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Katrina (902 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

How low can Rita go?

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Jaaaman
Interesting that you should say that you feel Rita will stall out and move southwestward in Texas... Most of the models show Rita moving north and then northeast.
Do you think Baton Rouge is better? I have family there. Why are they not telling us to leave? Did she make a northern turn? This is a little surprising as they are not making any advisories here yet.
Thx for the update on the eye and eye wall. I think my brain has turned into swiss cheese from blogging too much. All night long I dreamt of a giant, perfect storm named Rita-Katrina that wiped out the entire Gulf coast. Man, that is a bad dream.


989
URNT12 KNHC 220942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/09:12:20Z
B. 24 deg 55 min N
087 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2245 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 303 deg 134 kt
G. 228 deg 010 nm
H. 902 mb
I. 14 C/ 3068 m
J. 29 C/ 3057 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 1618A RITA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 165 KT NE QUAD 05:34:00 Z
STADIUM EFFECT LIT BY MOONLIGHT AND BY LIGHTNING WITHIN EYEWALL



end of sub-900, I think that is the end of her forays into sub-900 territory too
southernskiesrnice at 9:43 AM GMT on September 22, 2005.
Do you think Baton Rouge is better? I have family there. Why are they not telling us to leave? Did she make a northern turn? This is a little surprising as they are not making any advisories here yet.


In your shoes, I'd get out. Period...no stopping at Baton Rouge, do not pass go, do not collect $200. Just go...I'd head to Nashville or Atanta. Somewhere well inland that is not swamped with evacuaees from Katrina. also somewhere that is not going to have this thing stall out on top of you and drop up to 30" of rain on you. Think north and east.
eye wall has actaully gotten bigger. i do not belive we will see a trrue eye wall cycle, as the eye will no collapse but a reforming fo the eye wallin 6-12hrs. in resoonse to this her pressure continues to creep up. now its 902mb. still incredibly low. she took a ahrd turn for the north but overall her motion is 285 degress or wnw

9-20-05
4:30pm-973mb 23.85n 81.95w
5:56pm-970mb 23.92n 82.18w
6:24pm-969mb 23.93n 82.35w
8:09pm-967mb 24.00n 82.68w
10:04pm-965mb 24.03n 83.07w

9-21-05
11:17am-934mb 24.18n 85.70w
1:02pm-923mb 24.20n 85.93w
1:53pm-920mb 24.28n 86.17w
3:36pm-914mb 24.35n 86.35w
5:16pm-904mb 24.40n 86.53w
7:09pm-898mb 24.52n 86.77w

9-22-05
1:38am-898mb 24.77n 87.57
3:14am-899mb 24.80n 87.77w
5:12am-902mb 24.92n 87.92w
902MB TWC just reported
weatherspotter u all late man lol
Posted By: leftyy420 at 9:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2005.
eye wall has actaully gotten bigger. i do not belive we will see a trrue eye wall cycle, as the eye will no collapse but a reforming fo the eye wallin 6-12hrs. in resoonse to this her pressure continues to creep up. now its 902mb. still incredibly low. she took a ahrd turn for the north but overall her motion is 285 degress or wnw


That is what I thought I ws seeing...but I thought maybe I was seeing things. Or not since I can't find my eyeball cheaters. Katrina did the same thing befoer landfall. Instead of the eyewall collapsing, it got larger, then shrank again. Although it might slow it down a bit, this type of replacement cycle,a sopposed to one that collapses and is replace, seems to tkae less energy out of the storm. At least it did with Katrina.
Whoever is in SW LA and was asking about whether to leave or not, look at the accumulated rainfall models at the following link (change the pulldown to rainfall instead of pressure), check for example the gfs model. Soakville.

Link
1012. ixalon
About global warming. I think that despite it being unproven whether this increased activity is caused by a natural cycle, is due to increased average water temperatures due to man-made causes or partly both, it is important to remember that spewing out great amounts of CO2 and pollutants into our atmosphere is just generally a bad thing - especially with the level of deforestation going on.

I fear that some may confuse the message that this season's ferocity (and global warming in general) has not been affected by our actions, as an excuse to not cut down on emissions.
You got my ass Lefty lol
yeah, and since this is happening now instead of later tomm she could be at her next peak what ever that is, it could just be a strong cat4, as she makes landfall. the key is that a stregthening storm is more destructive than a weaking storm as it mixes the winds down better. must note the real question now is the shear. if it is 12 kts she will be a minimal cat 4 at best. it appears it will not be that much so i see a strong cat 4 is a possibilty
Posted By: WeatherSpotter at 9:56 AM GMT on September 22, 2005.
You got my ass Lefty lol


WeatherSpotter, are you trying to come out of the closet in blogland? And are you trying to out Lefty as well? LOL! OK just an attempt at a little levity. Sorry guys..
sir that was funny lol
Na just trying to be a part of the blog... Was just kidding with Lefty. Lefty is knowledgable about Hurricanes and I've learned that.
well boys my wife is jealous so imust go. i will be back in a few hours. i can not sleep good when they are out in the gulf lol see ya around noon
Glad you guys enjoyed my levity. I think Lefty is pretty sharp as well. I've learned a lot from him and respect him a lot more than some of the other guys on here who think they are experts.

Gotta run as well. The newest cancer survivor in the house is awake and I've got to go tend to his morning nutrion needs. Be back later...if I don't tkae a really LONG nap. LOL!
Hey guys, I saw a little earlier someone make a comparison of Katrina to Camile. I don't know what the instruments said but there is NO comparison in the structural damage inland and obviously no comparison to the storm surge or scope of total destruction. The eyewall of Camile hit Pass Christian and Long Beach. The eyewall of Katrina reportedly came over the waveland area (10-12 miles west). Based on the damage in Long Beach and Pass Christian ALONE, there is ABSOLUTELY no comparison.

I guess time will tell how the hurricane community will record the strength of Katrina but ask anyone who as been here and can compare the damage from other storms. The strength and scope of this was storm unbelievable.
1021. Mark1
well I-10 is mess. I am in San Antonio now. Took 12 hours from League City / Clear Lake. My advice. We used a laptop and Microsoft's Streets and Trips. Kind of like a rally team. Took some off roads. Freaking Whataburger in Sealy was sold out. People are sleeping all along 10
Without any more turn to the north, Rita looks like she is moving to extreme western Texas. Not predicting here, just stating what I see. If it turns north any more,...well... I'll say I'm glad I called my friends in Lafayette last night and (Just in case) told them not to worry but get ready to come here.

I still hope Stormtop is right when he told us yesterday that NOLA would get NOTHING.
Mark, glad you got out and glad you still seem to have yor spirits after that drive.
Great suggestion. The old US highway system is still there and in an evacuation can be the answer.
Steve Gregory said that this could be a cat. 5 at landfall, but the most likely thing to keep it from being a cat. 5 would be an eyewall replacement cycle, and that a strong cat. 4 is more likely. Remember, when storms get this strong, they create their own ideal enviornments, just as Emily did this year, so shear may not be as big of a problem as we think right now. As long as Rita stays over the warmer water that she is predicted to, there's no telling what could happen...
Prayers ... and action ... and response ... are/will all be needed
ok ARE YOU KIDDING...they just moved ALL the New Orleans evacuees in Houston to Fort Smith..and now the track for Rita stalls it out over...FORT SMITH...with 15 to 30 inches of rain?! WHAT THE HECK
So, I've awoken now. The storm has weakened noticeably on the satellite compared to when I went to bed--it has finally begun to entrain too much of the extrememly dry air in the Gulf, and so has begun to get eaten up. Nonetheless, the signature is still better than Katrina's ever was, so it makes one wonder whether the aircraft have been getting samples of the truly strongest winds in the eyewall--especially since the storm's signature 6 hours ago made Katrina's peak look weak in comparison. I know that earlier last night they found 176 knot flight-level winds, which are indicative of a storm with surface winds of around 190 mph (not to mention the incredibly low pressure). So why was NHC so reluctant to upgrade this one? Now, in the future, they'll be comparing monster storms to this one and downgrading them simply because the "official" wind numbers with this one were low. Make no mistake--this storm probably still has surface winds of 175-180 mph, but it has weakened significantly due to dry air entrainment. It might soon be weak enough to start an eyewall replacement cycle; this storm seems to have gone by the practice of storms with winds of 175 mph or more not having EWRC's--anyone know such storms don't have them?

Now as I've written this, the satellite appearance is weaker, and it's probably about the same now as Katrina at its peak, maybe a little weaker. This storm might not be cat 5 anymore by the 11AM update, since the dry air entrainment will probably not only continue but will get stronger. I wonder about the effect of upwelling now as well, since the size of the whole storm has decreased noticeably over the past few hours.
the dry air is DEFINATELY good news. I'm hoping my gut instinct is right...steady weakening through landfall. but I do think the winds were probably about 190 mph at one point. just compare the storm to the other three storms that had pressures below 900..
Yeah, my opinion is it's pretty much a given the winds were at least 185 mph--simply because you can compare the eyewall when it peaked with those of Gilbert at peak (Rita's was a little bit stronger), as well as some supertyphoons in the Pacific like Joan and Paka that also had winds of 185 mph--and I'd say Rita's was better-looking than those. As for keeping it at 175 mph, there is absolutely no question Rita was stronger than that--there is a definite morphological difference between a 175 mph storm and a 180 mph storm--and Rita went a bit beyond that. On the current image, though, Rita is looking more like a 175 mph storm, possibly a hair weaker.
I'd say 160-165 mph for the next advisory. For some reason now I'm think CAT 2 landfalling near the Texas/Louisiana border...I feel like I'm jumping the gun saying that though. We'll see
I wouldnt get your hopes up too high, look at this...

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/
1033. Mark1
LOL I have spirits. having a vodka and v8 now hehehe
hehehe Mark
LOL!! I'm having gingerale lmao..(i'm sick)
The new path takes Rita over that extremely warm eddy and the warmer waters leading up to Galveston Bay.
Link
I'd be feeling really nervous if I were in LA.
i am feeling sick also
BTW I'm drinking CDM coffee. Pretty potent stuff
1040. IKE
Appears to be heading for the Texas/LA border area. May actually make landfall in SW LA, which would possibly spare Galveston/Houston.
New Vortex - 907 MB
1042. IKE
Rita has peaked out and is weakening slightly. Up almost 10 mb's.
I still believe a Strong Cat 4 at Landfall at the TX/LA State Line.
Yeah, Ike.
TWC just reported 902mb
1046. hmfynn
On that Satelitte loop Rita seems to have lost alot of her red clouds, what gives?

Also seems straight line WNW, very little wobbling after last night.
Negative

TWC Reporting new Vortex Message - 907 MB
My biggest worry is NOLA underwater again with more breeches in the levee system.
Its ran into some dry air pockets - I wouldn't be surprised if next advisory takes it to 165 or 160 then go to a Cat 4 then stay steady til landfall
how march loger will this bea cat5 and could it come back to 175?
1051. hmfynn
nevermind, the 7am update just out still says WNW but shows her moving almost due NW if not WNW. Pray to God for Central LA that's a wobble
Can someone give me a link to the predicted surge map? Thanks!
I believe the hurricane has reached its peak intensity of 175. It would be an act by god if it strengthened like that again after weakening within hte last 2 hours.
1054. IKE
She's moving slightly east and north of the projected NHC path. She's zeroing in on extreme eastern Texas and SW LA. I still think this is gonna make landfall in LA.
Ike,

I agree.

I would say its going to be right on the state line
1056. hmfynn
HOw likely do you think this could get as far as central LA, around Thibodaux/Houma? We've been on guard here but this jog was really unexpected.
we got all day to keep a i on her this may be this be territory too but when the the sun come up then she may come back a little
this to tell you all winds are down to 170mph
If this is the start of a NW movement, I think it will hit central Louisiana. Compare the Katrina chart and the Rita chart that Dr. Masters has posted in this blog. Katrina started her NW movement just east of where Rita is now. I just hope that all are prepared wherever she hits. "Where does a 500 pound gorilla sleep? Wherever he wants." Where does a Cat 5 make landfall? Wherever she wants. I hope the systems in place hold up, so that the people that need to evacuate are all safely tucked in by now.
I really think that this was another slight turn towards the N. It seems like thats the way its wanting to go and it will still be in the warm waters so it could still intensify. I really think that if your anywhere from NO to BR westward then your in danger
Most recent buoy report, just north of Rita, indicates near 30 foot waves.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
I'll be suprised if Rita goes west of 91 deg. Looks like the High is eroding near the LA/TX Coast.
the eye wall is closed right that may be why it is not geting storger but when dos the eye wall open back up?
Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 170 mph with higher
gusts. This makes Rita a potentially catastrophic category
five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A slow weakening trend
is forecast but Rita is expected to reach the coast late Friday or
early Saturday as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure recently measured by a hurricane
hunter aircraft was 907 mb...26.78 inches.

What a sight to wake up to. I go to bed thinking that we might just get some outter peripheral affects to OMG, it' coming this way! I'm about to go get some plywood. Please, start praying for us here in SWLA...I'll keep ya'll posted as long as I can.
1066. swmpman
Morning folks. Models moving east or still bouncing?
Good morning all..

A couple of observations, she is much smaller today, as to this time yesterday? any info on this?

Also, This is going to hit the border as I have been saying for 3 days now.. Any thoughts on this.... This is about as bad as it gets for human disaster, but it is going to be better on oil prices.. Get out of LA coast now...
hmfynn, I am not a "pro" like some of these guys. I have just been watching storms for many years. I would plan for a storm and loss of power,etc. Most hurricane preparations are getting things you'll use anyhow. GAS
The worst that will happen is you'll have cheaper gas than if you waited after the storm. Also, having a reservation somewhere would not hurt. They can always be cancelled.
Did you flood during Katrina?
I'm not liking the way she keeps nudging north of the projected track.

Link
Wheres Stormtop with his your safe in NO/LA no problems prediction?
1071. swmpman
SaymoBEEL - I just got Gas this morn (praise the Lord) had to wait and there is not much left (used hi-test)
Hooked, I believe that she is crossing over the cooler water left by Katrina.
OK here is the dealio... Tropical forecast yesterday were Rita was not to clear 25N until it was past 90west, it has cleared 25N significantly earlier than 90W this is not a Galveston hit.....
Good morning Maybe going in LA more central, Hooked.
I have been tracking with you for days. I still would not come back to TX yet. Its not 100% decided by far.
Also, new NHC track is east of Galveston already...
Hooked,
you have me convinced!
yesterday projection was 24.5n 88.5w, already 24.9n 88w, I would say she is north of the projected path all in SWLA should start to evac.
1079. swmpman
Hooked- U saying the High is not as strong ergo storm moves more North?
888, if you do not post in caps, people will read what you have to say
swmpman,

Look at the map of pressure on WU main hurricane page. It looks to me like the west edge of the high had eroded near the TX/LA border.
ok then do you all tink will the sun come up the hurrican may get storger
I guess I am just pointing out the obvious... The high showed weakness yesterday.. I am about to leave for work.. I will post more when I get there... This storm is not behaving well.. I am waiting for Joe Bastardi update... Yesterday he hinted that she was going north of previously predicted...

It still will be bad in Galveston, but like NO many times this doesn't look like a direct hit.... someone there has a grotto?

I am not an expert I am just pointing out the obvious based on facts as simple as position and where the NHC and models are heading for the border..
gns, I don't know why anyone would make that kind of prediction asserting certainty. Always be ready when you live on the gulf coast and theres a hurricane out there. And Never say Never.
hooked, check out these latest model runs....this is a very large jump to the east, after what the models looked like earlier this morning.

Link
8888 I think it is just not in an ideal environment any more... Sun will help thunderstorms around the storm most likely east of hurricane..
do you all think that when the sun com up will the hurrican get storger?
1089. LALady
88888888...I have no idea...no clue but I am getting nervous
see ya later Hooked
888888888, the sun coming up will not affect her...right now she is over some cooler water and I have been looking at WV at it seems that there is some SW shear
I think all coastal positions should at least go 20ft above sea level and 2 miles in.. this storm will be a shadow of it 898 mb.. but it will carry that surge..
Son of a #@$%^, Why did yall let her turn north?
could this be a cat 5 at landfll or a storg cat 4 or a low cat 5 at landfall
SaymoBEEL, you have mail
8888888888, i don't see it being a cat 5 more than likely a cat 4
Joe's take
TUESDAY... 3:30 AM, THOUGH GOT ON LATE. THE SUM OF ALL FEARS..THE BEAST AIMS FURTHER EAST.

1)Rita path to be adjusted east. Slow post landfall movement in east Texas implies ultimate Texas catastrophic weather event between worst possible landfall site of strongest storm ever to hit the state, and then the rainout of the slow mover. Storm to outdo all others combined in post landfall rain amounts as front stalls near the storm and supplies extra reason for increasing rain amounts 2) Heavy rains could impact New Orleans, if not by direct amounts, then by amounts further northwest coming down the river. 3) Severe weather to plague Rita areas for several days. 4) Much more transient pattern in westerlies next 7-10 days allows for cooler air to spread south. Japanese ridge alive and kicking means ridge lurks off south Atlantic coast. 5) Development of cross polar flow and chillier than normal in canada ups temp sweepstakes for any fronts. 6) Analogs to mid and late Sept 1985 being glanced at, but until I have some time, I cant hone in yet. Point is new in close tropical activity likely to develop next week be it wave coming across or just pattern allowing for southwest atlantic development. 7) strong pulse of convection continues working into atlantic basin. 8) For Texas, the lack of hurricanes the past 20 years means the rent has come due. 9) New positions, later this morning 10. Obviously, the jaw dropping intensification, though starting a little late, did occur. ciao for now ****
hi Mobile, I guess we weren't so stupid for thinking its possible for an early turn.
is the water that much cooler to make a significant difference?
i hop this is not going to la
heading to work all....check in later
Post your predictions on my blog and update them if need be.. I am off to work...
icebear.. when it was as strong as it was any little thing affects it.. you will see pressure rise for a good part of today and most likely an ewrc if it has not already started..
Chit chit chit...

Who told Rita that she could turn this soon??

I go to sleep feeling confident and now this?
1105. swmpman
gnshpdude yea I see, but sure would like to see what the G-IV mission saw.
ladobelady, your husband will have a job... his rig might be just fine.
Wait...isn't it bad for Rita to hit LA on the West side? I don't think we want that for NOLA...
Can anyone post the tidal surge prediction map? I can't seem to find it anymore.
Good morning everyone... a couple of observations:

1) Rita's starting her steady weakening trend. Her stadium eye is still holding on very well and probably means that she won't see an ewrc at least for the next 6-12 hours at least... but here Dvorak T-numbers are definitely going DOWN. Probably due to lower SSTs as lefty pointed out earlier.

2) She's left the eddy and, due to her more northerly track, is actually going over cooler waters because of the wake of Katrina. However, SSTs increase again just to the west of her position as a hooklike extension of the eddy sits about 100nm south of and along the sw LA coast. I expect Rita to kinda stabilize at 910-920mb and 160mph winds until shortly before landfall, when she will weaken to a high CAT-4 due to friction with the land.

3) The forecast landfall has become very tricky again. The high pressure ridge to the north hf Rita (possibly due to Rita herself) has weakened slightly and allowed Rita to take that 285-290dg course over the last several hours. She has indeed cleared 25N well east of 90W and now, unless the ridge rebuilds and/or Rita speeds up, Galveston may no longer be the bulls-eye. Port Arthur, TX/Lake Charles, LA are now becoming a stronger target... but the weakness of the ridge, combined with that (weak?) shortwave trough coming in from the nw, could cause Rita to turn north quicker than expected, or even cause her to stall in the NW gulf and churn for a while (which might be the best possible scenario, since she'd upwell cold water on that shallow shelf and basically starve herself).

I'm adjusting my projected landfall track to somewhere between Galveston Bay and Port Arthur, but it could very easily shift eastward another 50-100nm before all is said and done. People in SW LA need to seriously consider evacuations at this time, possibly all the way east to Morgan City.
We want for people to have time to prepare. BSTS
My Prediction for landfall:
Landall between Jamaica Beach, Texas, and Point Au Fer, Louisiana.
Winds: 125-145mph
Surge: 12 to 18'
Waves: 18-25'
Rainfall: 5 to 15 inches (more if storm stalls)
AKA, uh oh... we evacuated the wrong city...

RITA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RITA TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
NOW CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN THE SABINE RIVER AND
MATAGORDA TEXAS IN 48-60 HR...WITH A NET EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO THE EFFECT OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE FIRST
24 HR OR SO. SECOND...THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 12 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST OF RITA...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLE MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT
SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...
ESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR.
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Hooked even if his rig was torn apart he'd have a job. There is high demand for people with his experience and he's been with the same company 28 years.

Of course we can find out nothing about the local effects of Rita on us to base a decision about leaving.
1114. hmfynn
looking at the sat loop RIGHT NOW I think I MAY see the beginnings of an eye jog to the west. God I hope this pans out, we'll see in 30 minutes.

Does anyone else see this?
I know it won't change course but every jog helps right now
post your predictions on my blog... that way we can show how none of have a clue... although, my initial forecast looks pretty darn good
1116. hmfynn
guess I should Link so you don't have to search for it
Looks like she is starting to shear.Link anyone else see this
yeah I see the jog too
Why the heck don't they have the contra lanes open in Houston? They said they were open for some of yesterday. It's looked like a parking lot all night long.
hmfynn I'm in Houma as well
MD they just said they have started to open contra lanes on I-45 and other roads
hooked, almost the entire populated Texas coast is evaced. They got everyone out.
MD they just said they have started to open contra lanes on I-45 and other roads <--THANK GOD
when will Dr. Jeff Masters' have a new weather blog?
question-about how often to vortex messages come in...once every hour and a half?
1126. GetReal
Just to let everyone that I'm still around, and holdint to my previous posted prediction two days ago. Rita will make landfall on the central or western LA coast between Morgan City and Lake Charles. The only change I have to make is intensity, Cat 4 instead of the previously posted Cat 3. I noted 36 hours ago that the pressure heights were falling more rapidly over the north central gulf coast, and were nearly stable then off the Texas coast, for which some ridiculed me. I also stated yesterday that Rita had become so intense that she herself was eroding the ridge to the north, again ridiculed by others. We're now beginning to see how Rita will play out unfortunately for LA.
1127. hmfynn
LADobeLady,
as for the state in Houma, I'm hoping we're far east enough to avoid any severe damage. If this thing hits the La/Tx border, even perhaps as far east as Lake Charles, I would think we're still pretty much in the clear.

If it hits Lafayette, it's possible we'll still clear the brunt. Depends on what her size is.

I'm quite on edge; hoping that really was a west jog I saw.
Still, I wouldn't hit the panic button in Terrebonne just yet, (nowhere to evacuate anyway) though I would make whatever preparations I could. From what I see, maybe others can back me up, there's not a huge chance the eye would come this far east, (though it's still there obviously) and hopefully we'll be far enough east to avoid the damage we saw after Katrina.
looks like its following the train tracks left by katrina
3 things.

1. Check the latest computer runs, they are shift northeast again.

2. The new tracking map shows pressue is up and wind speed is down, probably ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) IMHO still has a shot at taking the number 2 maybe the number 1 slot..

3. Check out my blog I am trying to start a place for Hurricane related links (ie formation links, webcam links, etc.. etc..) Link
1130. swmpman
But getreal, she is weaker now.
anything new on forward speed and how far out the winds are spread and eyewall size?
noaa weather bouy located at 25.84N 89.66W report of 6:50am
EDT says wind gusts to 50.5 knots and wave height of 29.2 feet. this buoy is located 180 nautical miles south of Southwest Pass LA.
Link

This will show the movement east and the catastrophic problems at hand... NO will flood again.

Joe Bastardi just said 50 billion storm and lake charles to galveston is new "ground zero".. He shifted his forcast @ 8am this morning east 60 miles... 150mph winds on landfall is his prediction..

The link above does a good job on showing areas that will be affected greatly
They better evac the LA coat further east than Cameron Parish. I don't like where she's at right now.
Thank Goodness they're opening them back up. I wonder how many people will run out of gas while stuck in traffic.

So if the storm is 400 miles wide, how long before they expect tropical force winds? Also, with such wide storms, won't the leading edge making landfall so much earlier than the eye make the speed drop before the eye's landfall?
1136. GetReal
You call that current pressure weak, getreal!!
cajun, your gov is horrible.. look how Texas handled this..good luck.. this is probably the worst possible scenario for NO west to galveston... everyone should head east from LA, and west from galveston..
by the way IRS changed vehicle reimbursment rates for tax deductions to 48.5 cents per mile.. wonder if they know what is coming..
1139. GetReal
Where's leftyy and StormTop??? They must be off licking their models somewhere together!!
000
URNT11 KNHC 221152
97779 11464 50270 88210 30600 09049 10098 /3091
41060
RMK AF307 1618A RITA OB 26
LAST REPORT

last report...??
Thankfully we are prepared and I have reservations in Jacksonville on hold if I need them. All we have to do is cover the windows, that will only take about a half hour everything is precut and numbered. It was one of our first purchases right after buying our house.
it look like the T-storm are starting to come back around the eye wall the red is starting to come back around a little so itt mat start to get storger
Leftyy said he's be back around noon i think


Stormtop might be preparing some stuff since the storm is heading closer to LA than expected
yeah it looks like she's strengthening again....
They are still talking here in Lafayette that we are out of the woods, we might get some "tropical storm force winds" which will cause light power outages. They haven't even canceled school yet for tomorrow. Talk about living on the edge. The newscaster kept talking about the big storm surge in Galveston, and that Acadiana parishes might see some 3-5 foot seas. Do you think this is way off? Am I jumping the gun wanting to take my kids to my parents house? Thanks
1146. hmfynn
looking at the sat loop now that is indeed a west wobble. hope it lasts more than a half-hour.

I'm sure Lefty would be furious about all this wobble-talk but when you're 48 hours away from a possible hit like I am you have to take what you can get.
8888 its gonna weaken, the pressure is rising, ands the water is much cooler near the coast. It will make landfall as an extremely powerful Cat 4.
hookedontropics, where did you hear that about the IRS upping the mileage?
1149. GetReal
Southernski I would play it safe, LEAVE NOW. Avoid the panic and rush while you still can...
Hooked, man I tell you, They think that 5 day cone gets them in the clear. NHC has been to good in the past with predicting or my Gov. really is that bad. This could bite us in the butt again.
IMO The closer it gets to landfall the importance of those wobbles mean to meany people increase.
noaa bouy located 65 nautical miles south of dauphin island
(mobile) 6:50 am CDT reporting 27.2 knot gusts with 16.1 foot wave heights
1153. GetReal
Cajunkid that bite is surely coming!
I still can't find anything from Terrebonne Parish officials.
what time is it overe there and when dos the 8am come ou i would like to see is the let down more or they let up more
1156. hmfynn
southernskies, I wouldn't say hit the panic button yet, but, yes, do take your kids elsewhere if you can. If you've got a safer place to be, by all means, go there. Lots of us even as far east as Lafourche would be leaving if we actually had places to go. Just to be safe. But thanks to Katrina, hotels are booked solid.

I'd wait for another advisory though. After all, what if something crazy happens and she ends up heading to Central LA? Lafayette would actually be alot safer in that case. Though that scenario looks unlikely.
Getreal, I know , What the hell are they doing over here. The same thing happened with Katrina, we heard Pensacola all week then 30 to 24 hrs out (oh shit)!
Blanco doesn't even care, she only mentioned briefly about people leaving coastal cameron parish and voluntarily leaving Calc. Parish. I mean at least cancel school so in case we need to leave we can take our kids and go. I should just move to Texas so at least my governor has some brains. I dont mean to sound so harsh, but she has failed once and I don't know if she is capable of pulling it off.
1159. MandyTX
Gatorbait05 -- 8888 its gonna weaken, the pressure is rising, ands the water is much cooler near the coast. It will make landfall as an extremely powerful Cat 4.

I thought the waters near the coast in Texas were much warmer?
Which governor has already called the White House for request of State of Emergency status? Wasn't that Louisiana?
Thanks for the advice guys, I work in the hotel business, so I know how that goes. We arent even allowed to take reservations til the end of October. If it gets bad I will either head to my dads in BR or my boyfriends in Austin. Either way I think I will be relatively safe.
They always say if you are in the cone get ready.
southern skies, i wouldn't wait for the government to tell you what to do, do what you think is best for your kids and deal with the schools later
its amazing how those cold cloud tops around the eye almost completely faded just by pressure increasing 10mb. unbelievable difference

like someone else stated, theres a difference between a storm at 175mph and 180. look at the infrared and see the massive difference between 175 and 170.
1165. geaux1
Gov Blanco is a a babling idiot. I am surprised she didn't copy the Tx. gov's speech on evacuating the coastal areas.
i say the water overe there is at 85 or 87 i think it will make land fall as a cat 5
Southern I agree. They don't think we exist if we live below I-10. No contra flow to the west for any storm I've evaced for on 90. It took me 3 hours to go 24 miles for Katrin yet the W bound lanes had very little traffic.
Herewegoagain

Surge Graphics (Video):

http://www.click2houston.com/video/4998700/detail.html

Flood Plain Map:

http://maps.tsarp.org/viewer.htm
All of them called for it, LA, Texas and Florida. La was still a disaster area, so most of the resources are tied up in the New Orleans area. I am only mad because I don't want her to miss the boat one more time. I think she would benefit from showing a little more firmness. I won't go into it here, this is a weather board.
Looks like the cone is widening. This thing could hit anywhere from Galveston to Lake Charles, or she could just choose to park her big a$$ in the nw gulf and pound the coast for a couple days.

And, yes, Kathleen BLANKo is a babbling idiot.
I woke up to find we are back inside the cone again, even if just on the edge. I guess it's time to get moving this morning to get the shutters secured and the porch cleaned.
Hi, Lafayette and Abbeville, I'm here in Baldwin.
Southernskies, I totally understand your frustration. It must be infuriating to see things that your elected officials don't seem to see.
but look at the red some of the red is now trying to come back around the eye wall it may get storger and it may not
Oops I meant Morgan City, not Lake Charles. I've been up most of the night... lol...

My money's on a Port Arthur landfall now, though...
1175. chlehew
If you need a place to go. Arkansas has plenty of shelters and churches ready for evacuees. A hotel may be more private but most of these places are free and are offering free meals and activities for kids to keep them distracted. Of course, we'll probably get some wind and lots of rain...
Grid lock trying to leave Houston. Many people spending 6-10 hours only to move a few miles. Everyone is running out of gas. If things don't change, there will be an incredible danger to all these stranded people.
We tried to leave and turned back.
I'm no thief but we just went through the neighborhood Const. homes and took enough hardy plank to try and make a stand.
Houston use your common sense, its everyman for himself, may God help us all
1177. hmfynn
loop updated again, that's definitely a west wobble. hope it lasts. yes, i'm checking every half hour.
It ain't easy to get out south of Lafayette, I'll bet Blanco is crying again
*Glad I am not the only one who thinks she is a blubbering fool.

When is the next update and has anyone reported what the water is doing in the St. Bernard/NO areas? I heard 7 foot seas last night.. but nothing since then. Soledad O'Brien seems to not be too worried.

IRS upped the mileage a number of weeks ago, They raised to 48.5 cents as of September 1.
1181. swmpman
Agree hmfynn. Not that I want it, but LA needs to be left alone.
mocity,
use a lot of screws and cover every opening. if you have
garage doors, brace them well. good luck!
What's up with Phil. Still a land-free storm for sure or are there chances it could bite the SE Coast.

- C
1184. 2ifbyC
Does anyone have the high pressure system map link that coded the hi press in yellow/gold? I lost that sucker somehow!

TIA!
when is the new update comeing out on the hurrican?
MoCity- It just infuriates me to see one side of a highway blocked and teh opposite side empty. This isn't rocket science. There are other routes for people that need to get into the city. You know a lot of people were preparing and planned on leaving this morning. If those lanes were opened up all night, they may not have been backed up so much now. Good luck!
1187. swmpman
Current Model output converging on Galv. Link
southernskies,
katrina did a number on most of the bouys. many not reporting. one at Isle Dernieres, LA reported at 7:00am
wave height of 6.9 feet, wnd gusts to 22.9 knots, water temp at 87.3.
Good morning all! The latest sat. images has Rita looking ragged. Thoughts?? What's going on with her??
Deja Vu...remember how Jeanne followed Francis' path? Seems like Rita wants to follow Katrina's path...
a lot of red is now starting to come back on the eye wall
1192. Wiggy
The traffic in the Baytown are is rediculous. My Sister In Law was at her mother's house in Seabrook and was going to hit I-45. Which she said usually takes 15 minutes. Well it took her 5 hours and 20 minutes to get to the interstate. She said that they blocked 4 or 5 main roads out of Houston and then decided that wasn't the greatest idea. That is rediculous what they have done. They will be lucky to get out in time.
Actually, current model consensus converging just north of Galveston - which is a huge blessing. Rita is lookin' like crap this AM after yesterday's impressive show. NHC moved their forecast landfall considerably northward overnight - but not far enough northward. Rita's already further north again than the forecast points. SW Louisiana - look out! I'm thinking Cat 3 just west of the TX / LA border at landfall.
88888 -- Maybe I'm not looking at the same sat. images as you. Doesn't seem like the red is intensifying and the left side is lookin pretty bad. Can you give me a link for better sat. sites? I've looked at the GOES and USA Intellicast.
Phil looks eerie out there...like a big hurricane wrapping up...of course, thats not the case, just lots of windshear...but could you imagine if Phil scooted over to that upper low, squeezed tightly and became one big mofo...?
NOAA just made a page just for RITA...Link..Another link to have for the storm...
no it will not get down that low may be a storg cat 4 or a low cat 5 at land fall
1198. Remek
Good morning all! The latest sat. images has Rita looking ragged. Thoughts?? What's going on with her??

No signs of shear or dry air, so she probably hit a small patch of cooler water. Seems to be gathering herself back up again, though.
It looks like the high is getting sandwiched, you would think thit Rita either has to go north or wsw, any thoughts on thisLink
1200. Remek
Posted By: fortlauderdalegirl at 1:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2005.

Use this page:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Significant wind shear coming in 24 hours - she weakens from here on on out...
With the cloud tops as warm as they are I wouldn't be surprised to see the winds down to the 145-150 mph range. I'm sure we saw her peak yesterday.
fortlauderdalegirl i am new to this so i do not how to to a link but i am looking at satellit services divison goes infranred ch 4 foater loop at this time
tropical outlook also warned us to watch the caribbean too...something may develop there....gonna try some model runs...maybe Jeff will update by the time I look around....
I'm afraid of a more northerly turn. Not predicting, just expressing the possibility.
1206. SaCaCh
Latest from Millenium Weather

Hurricane Rita is extremely intense this morning. Unfortunately, I suspect we'll never know just how strong she god overnight. While recon early this morning found a central pressure nearly identical to what they found last night, I don't believe Rita held steady during the six hour interim between recon fixes. After the last recon fix Wed night, at 23:09Z, Rita's convection deepened and was extremely symmetric, becoming perhaps the most impressive hurricane I've seen on satellite imagery, rivaled only by Gilbert in 1988. Now, this morning, coming out of the GOES-East eclipse (satellite imagery is missed for a few hours), which corresponds reasonably well with the latest recon fixes, Rita is far less impressive. She still looks VERY powerful, but by comparison... the convection has weakened some and shrunk. So, I would suspect that the central pressure dropped and then has risen back up in between recon fixes. Thankfully, for the sake of science and records, I'm doubtful that we're talking about more than a few milibars. So, Rita likely did not surpass either of the only two Atlantic hurricanes ahead of her in the record books. Unfortunately, though, simply due to a lack of recon data, it is conceivable that one could debate this point.


At any rate, Rita has wobbled a fair bit for the past 12 hours or so, but is, in her large scale motion, very much on track. Since about 18Z yesterday a few of the models have nudged to the right and, because we're talking about almost indecipherable subtleties in the ridge forecast, I've been inclined to continue to follow the models consensus as, the hope and expectation is that the guidance, with its new data each run, is homing in on the right solution. Even still, the track forecast last night (in a special update) remained very nearly the same... still in the Freeport to Port O'Connor range... just leaning towards the very north side of the range, towards Freeport. And the story remains much the same this morning, with almost every model maintaining that Freeport-Port O'Connor range and with the same two exceptions we had at 18Z Wed, the GFS and GFDL (now their 00Z runs) northeast up the coast a bit. But with one more model now joining that northern group (the UKMET), landfall slightly north of the Freeport-Port O'Connor range... up near Galveston... seems a greater possibility. But, clearly, Rita is large and Galveston isn't very far up the coast from Freeport, so that's not much of an increase in the range of possibilities, so... the entire central and northern Texas coast needs to be prepared for Rita.


Current Conditions: As noted in the introduction, Rita has degraded a bit this morning, but that is a very reliative term, as she is still quite impressinve. In fact, as I write this (around 4AM EDT), a dropsonde a couple of hours ago reported something I've rarely seen... over 200kt winds at one level; they recorded 205kt winds at 925mb. Whether that's believable remains to be seen (one extreme dropsonde measurement yesterday appeared to be out of whack compared to the SMFR measurements), but with the pressure still at 898mb, it's hard to say that such a wind is impossible. That same dropsonde got 187kt winds at 849mb and 185kts at 858mb. Doing the standard reduction to sea level yields surface winds of about 160kts. The maximum flight level winds reported at roughly the same time (during the same recon pass) were 165kts; with the 700mb flight level, this converts to about 150kts at the surface. This means that TPC/NHC's official setting (as of 2AM EDT... the 5AM EDT update is not out as I write this) of 150kts, while absolutely valid, is, if anything, a low estimate, as Rita is between 150 and 160kts. Not much solace in this, but if there is one good thing, the flight level winds exceeding 160kts have been few and far between. So, if there are any surface winds exceeding 150kts sustained, they cover a very tiny area in the NE eyewall. On the flip side, recon has had no trouble repeatedly finding winds over 130 to 140kts in various quadrants of the eyewall. Even a very low estimate for that (using the 90% rule for 130kts and rounding down) would yield a borderline Cat 3/4 at 115kts. At any rate, if Rita HAS weakened a tad since her peak late Wed PM the weakening, according to recon appears to have ceased or slowed. A pair of recon fixes this morning yield a 898 and 899mb pressure sequentially. And the second in that sequence, the 899mb, appeared to miss the center slightly, as surface winds were over 30kts from that dropsonde. So, Rita appears to be steady in the upper 890s. As for her motion, using about a six hour spread of recon fixes... Rita has come north 17nm and west 55nm over what is actually almost exactly 8hrs. That works out to a motion of 287-degrees at 7kts. So, she's clear slowed and bent a bit to the right over the past 6-12hrs.


Model Discussion: Once again, extremely little to discuss within this section. The models are in unanimous agreement in their overall scenario with just some subtle differences in the precise ridge breakdown leading to slightly varying turns to the north, giving a range of landfall solutions Saturday morning along the mid and upper Texas coast. As stated in the intro, this range and consensus continues to make an ever-so-subtle nudge northward with each new model run. Here's a quick rundown of the current landfall solutions as of the latest model runs at 4AM EDT Thursday... The 06Z NAM attempts to maintain an outlier southern solution towards Brownsville, but even it now (and since 18Z Wed) turns Rita at the last minute, yielding a landfall near Port O'Connor Sat night (this timing is an outlier). The 00Z GFS remains on the north side, shifting even a bit more north, with landfall near Port Arthur, TX Sat AM. The NOGAPS, near Galvestong Sat AM in its 00Z run, has similarly shifted a bit north at 06Z, with a landfall near Port Arthur Sat AM. The 00Z GGEM holds to the south a bit, down towards Port O'Connor, perhaps even just a hint south of there, Sat AM. The 00Z UKMET has shifted NE a bit, towards the TX/LA border, near Port Arthur, but possibly even on the LA side of the border, Sat AM. The 00Z ECMWF has landfall between Freeport and Galveston Sat AM. Finally, the 00Z GFDL has landfall also between Freeport and Galveston on Sat AM.


My thinking: I despise just following the models... not only is it somewhat meteorologically lacking, but it also always keeps the forecast one step behind as it's always in reactionary mode... the models change, then the forecast changes... and by the time the forecast is changed and issued, new model runs are coming out. However, given the continued rather subtle differences in the models' ridge depictions, I feel almost forced to shoot down the middle. Trying to parse out the minutia seems rather fruitless. We can, however, at least try to narrow things down a bit with some reasonable deductions. For example, Rita is already moving westnorthwest and, as of 4AM EDT, is passing 25N latitude. Barring an immediate leftward bend, it seems highly unlikely that she'll make an approach to the Texas coast similar to that of the NAM, one of the furthest south models. Meanwhile, a simply straight line extrapolation would allow Rita approximately one degree latitude per three (or a bit more) of longitude. Starting from near 25N/88W, a rough estimate of her current position, would get Rita to the coast near Port Aransas, TX. Given that SOME further turning before landfall seems almost an absolute certainty, landfall down towards Port O'Connor, though absolutely still plausible, seems a southern extreme. The most likely "range" seems like it needs to be nudged north a bit... perhaps best defined as running from Matagorda to Port Arthur. Personally, I'm hesitant to stretch it all the way to Port Arthur, but with the motion already at 285-degrees, three models indicating landfall there, and the model trends in that direction... frankly, Port Arthur may not be an eastward ENOUGH extent of the range! In fact, even my south end may be too far south as only the NAM and GGEM are now south of Freeport... so, perhaps Freeport to Port Arthus is a better focus. But, here again, we're getting into parsing out almost unforecastable details in a two-plus day forecast. Basically, just consider the range as beginning to focus more towards the upper Texas coast than the central Texas coast. And, as for my actual forecast... as you can imagine, I will adjust north a bit. I'm going for landfall now near Galveston, TX. Given the trends, I would not be at all surprised if I need to adjust north a bit more as time progresses... but I'm not going to make any wild jumps at this point.


As for intensity at landfall... even though Rita has reached rather collosal heights, this will only marginally impact my landfall expectation. Though conditions surrounding Rita, both surface and aloft, will degrade some before she makes landfall, we may also be relying on some simple spindown... slightly cooler SSTs may yield a slowly rising pressure and there may not be an immediate response from the winds. Because of that, I will increase her expected landfall intensity a bit, but only marginally. I was in the 120-125kt range in the previous forecast; I'll stick her in the 125-130kt range now. And I would say that, if anything, I suspect my landfall intensity may be a bit too high. So, that's some potential hope for coastal resident. Still, I'm doubtful if Rita can drop below Category 3 before landfall. As such, I still expect her to landfall as a major hurricane.


An "administrative" reminder in closing. Due to scheduling issues there may well be no "special" update today for higher tier subscribers (I say "may", as I do hope to possibly get something very brief issued late tonight - likely around 10PM EDT). Also, due to continued scheduling issues throughout the weekend, nominal updates will continue to be issued in the mornings and "special" updates will erratic, but will be issued (those special updates are primarily for Friday... with landfall due Sat AM there may well only be the nominal update in the morning - one final update prior to landfall - and I've already addressed today [Thu]... so, any special update[s] on Friday will not come out at the normal evening time, but will come out earlier and/or later than usual). Timing is poor. I make very few plans in the heart of the hurricane season for just such reasons. An emergency arose just as Katrina was nearing landfall; now this.


And a final note as I finish up... the TPC/NHC forecsast just in is nearly identical to my own and, in fact, they even make a similar observation that their (our) track(s) are on the western side of the guidance. So, again, be forewarned that some further adjustment right (east) may be necessary. I, for one, am just trying not to jump the gun on such a track based on one model run. But, given the trends, such an adjustment being necessary in the next update would not be at all surprising.






-Gary

This is the latest bouy reading of wave ht 180 nm south of Southwest Pass LA

Current Wave Detail Observations
Updated:8:00 AM CDT on September 22, 2005
Water Depth 10741 ft / 3274 m
Wave Height 30.68 ft / 9.35 m
Spectral Peak Period 12.1 sec
Average Wave Period 9.7 sec
Sampling Interval 0.6 sec
Wave Record 2400 sec
there is no wind shear out there if there was wind shear this would not be a cat 5 right and there will not be a lot of red around the eye wall so at this time there is a lot of red comeing back around the eye wall so it is going to get stornger
Saymo - Yeah, I suspect the folks at NHC are scratching their heads a bit this morning, too. Due to continuity, they refuse to change their forecast track very much at any given time - but Rita is obviously way further north than they expected and still heading northward. The destruction of Galveston may have to wait until the next storm...
Raindancer, I agree. Possible weakening but, still dangerous.
888 - Check my posting. No wind shear now. Wind shear is coming in 24 hours. Rita has had a massive loss of cold convection overnight. The wind shear will continue the weakening process tomorrow.
1212. Wiggy
sayMobeel I am with you, but I didn't want to say anything
and get chewed out.
lol but the red is comeing back so if i am right the winds in the next updat will be higher then what they are now lol
1214. hmfynn
aaaand, it's jogging north again.
well, at least we got a good hour of westward movement. hope it helped in the long run.
1215. GetReal
There's a wobble due north for you now.
its like this guys no one expected to be dealing with the first cat 6 of the year...this thing has grown in size and its wind field and is eroding the high very quickly..the weakness is going to be now on the south central and sw la coasts...in the next advisory i expect them to shift it eastward 50 miles putting new orleans in possible hurricane force winds which will be our worse night mare...i dont want to even think about it ...another critical thing RITA is going through and eye replacement and she is headed where the waters are cooler...i think in the 10 am adv she drops once again to 155mph...i have never seen nothing like it since i been forecasting hurricanes..it just took the high and chewed it up..i think rita will hit on the la coast as a strong cat 3 on thursday night and affect the upper texas coast to the miss area....the question is what will happen to the greater new orleans now...
I see Millenium Weather (in the post below) is also predicting a Cat 3 at landfall - and also suggesting the track may be further right at landfall. I suspect at 11 AM EDT, NHC will move the course again to the right and will drop the wind speed. Rita "might" still be Cat 5 at 11, but I suspect that will be the last Cat 5 posting we see.
Wiggly, yeah, I hardly have anything left to sit on. Serious butt chewing the other night. The funny thing is, I don't try to force my opinion on anybody. Some people feel a little defensive I guess. If I'm wrong...I'm Wrong. I just like to point out what I see.
1219. Wiggy
I hope this doen't offend anyone, but I have come to a conclusion. I believe there a 4 types of people on this blog.

1. Hurricane Fanatics
2. Hurricane Freaks
3. People scared as hell in the way of a hurricane
4. Metereologists

correct me if I am wrong?
STORMTOP - I completely concur with your prediction - though weren't you pretty adamant yesterday about Rita missing LA altogether?
1221. Wiggy
I am in the NO. 3 category
Well they finally issued some voluntary evacuations for Acadiana and surrounding areas. Lets hope the boss says I can leave, my girls are really scared of storms. Thanks again for all the great advice and keeping me on top of things!
Wiggy - I'm not sure about #4... Unless you count Jeff and Steve.

=:)
it will not be a cat3 at landfall it will a storg cat 4 or a low cat5
stormtop....this is my prediction I posted earlier on hookedontropics blog


Ok, here we go..

29.5 92.3 late Saturday night, early Sunday morning Cat 4

1226. Wiggy
Well thats why I included the Hurricane Freaks. Because if you aren't a metereologist and you know that damn much about a hurricane then you are definately a hurricane freak. Especially if you don't even live in a hurricane prone area.
1227. GetReal
Hey StormTop jumping on the LA bandwagon now...
i am right thank you for that a storng cat 4 or a low cat 5
Wiggy - Valid point. LOL!

888 - OK, I give up on strength. There is nothing to support a Cat 5 beyond the next few hours, but I'll drop that one. What's your prediction for landfall site? Did I miss that one?
8888 It will not be a Cat 5. The strongest a high Cat 4, lowest High Cat 3. But the conditions are already displaying a weakening of the storm.
Overall weather fanatic here....I LOVE the weather!!!!!
For of all, what happen to all those people yesterday that said this is a texas storm, man there predictions change like the wind......Im just an long time amateur, but getting my first look at rita this morning, two things really bother me.....1)Rita has definitely changed her mind on her track and 2) she has weaken considerably hence the change in direction.......from my experience, when a storm is forced to change direction by whatever means, shear or whatever....most of the time it weakens, but once it starts moving again it can re-strengthen....... People in Louisiana and for most of the gulf need to watch this storm, because no one can guarantee you where its going.....especially the ones on here.....
y'know i've been snooping around trying to see if blanco and co. have any reaction to the northern turn- i.e. evacs, school closings, etc., and found nada. i wasn't aware that the path of least resistance storms follow had a political element to it as well, but live and learn.
D) all of the above except 4

I think all here have a unique appreciation for science and nature.
I'm a three!
there is a lot of red back around the eye wall at this time now the sun is up
boyfsu - If anything, I would have thought a weakening storm might have stayed left - but certainly not the case. There's definitely no wobble going on. Rita has distinctly turned northward. NHC has gotta say something at 11 AM. Now - where is lefty - and what was his predicted landfall?
1238. hmfynn
Stormtop, about how far East in LA?
to storm top who dors not awnser old ms boy we are used to it media only knows no theyforget us to by the way get real and weather guy 03 wererigt on with this storm we all sid slower speed bad news for la faster speed to the alamo i wonder if the great lefty and the nhc he worships will people on here stop awnsering so he will go away forgotten ms coastian.by the way i think 79 is alsoa lefty alter ego hmm. god bless and where is nash when you need him
AMEN WeatherboyFSU sending nole chops your way
yes raindancer but i didnt forecast a cat 6 hurricane...you have to understand this storm is huge the wind field is expanding and it just went into this high and chewed it up...now the new orleans area will not get a direct hit but will be on the worse side of the storm...all we can hope is the levees hold...we should get hurr force winds and heavy rainfall...i dont like this at all...
1242. Manny
I don't think she's done. If you look at this link to the TCHP of the Gulf, her northerly jogs are taking her to the portion with the highest level of heat in the entire gulf.

I've been a bear with her the majority of the time, but I think I'm going bullish with this prediction. Her last few sat frames look better as well.
1243. Wiggy
Please don't say that raindancer, because that is definately not good for the folks that got hit by Katrina and it could possibly come this way to Mobile.
1244. GetReal
Yeah where is leftyy, and StormTop after jumping all over me yesterday with leftyy, a simple "I was wrong", would do just fine..
I don't believ it will hit LA directly, the momentum and speed of this storm will not allow it at this point. Thats not saying they won't get something.
New Blog up
Oh, STORMTOP - give the Cat 6 thing a rest... First - it doesn't exist. Second - Rita only made it to Number 18 on the list of all time storms. She's impressive - but not earth shattering. If you want "Cat 6" - check out Typhoon Tip in '79 - at 2 to 3 times her size!
stormtop...what do you think of this prediction?

29.5 92.3 late Saturday night, early Sunday morning Cat 4
You know, I don't think it was wrong to predict Texas. It is the arrogance that the prediction was infallible that bothers me.
thank you at last some one at there no that i am right
well i see old get real was right after god lefty inslted him
1252. GetReal
That's right StormTop made a GOD-like decree that this was a TEXAS hurricane, and would not directly effect LA. Still waiting StormTop, or do I have to go back and pull up that post for everyone to see...
1254. GetReal
WHERE OH WHERE DID STORMTOP GO!!!
Hey Saint thanks for the nice words...Working alot today so more lurking then writing...But I will post some here and there..
the nhc is ajoke they waited to late to issue watch for katrina and if this hits central la as slow as they are changing track more dead bodies ought to be put on the front steps of nhc ask stormtopwho dont reply ms folks no needed 72 hours to evacuate they wait on nhc to issue watches and warnings before issuing evacs im sorry
GET REAL i did not predict a 175mph cat 6 hurricane and the width of this storm..this makes katrina look like a little sister to RITA...GET REAL new orleans will not get a direct hit but will get hurr force winds and heavy rains which we dont need right now...our levees are topped at 8 feet and no doubt the city wil flood and if it comes to west of us we will be on the worse side...this time its the west banks turn to flood...ok get real i gave you the reason...the strength just chewed this huge hig up...the weakness will be on the sw la coast now ..you know it really doesnt matter because rita is so large....this is unbelievable..i know no one on here predicted this strength after katrina only a few weeks ago....im not jumping on the band wagon get real im giving you the facts thats whats going to happen...in the next adv they will shift the bullseye 50 miles more back to the east....i do think it has weakened to 155 though if you want to call that weakening...
1258. GetReal
I'll be back at 1000 hours for next advisory.
get real maybe a group of us should talk to each oter ignore 79 and lefty and maybe he will eventually go away by the way i dont think storm top awnsers us because he only talks to lefty hmmm lol.
Hurricane path prediction is about as vauge as predicting who will win the Super Bowl. At the beginning of the season you'll have most people picking a handful of teams to win it. Then as the season goes on and records get established those predictions are changed based on a current teams' performances. Then towards the end of the season we can narrow it down to the teams that made the playoffs. Then one by one teams get eliminated and finally you have a winner. Anyone that predicted the Patriots would win the 2001 Superbowl at the beginning of the season would just be lucky. Who knew that Tom Brady would be the superstar that he is when Bledsoe was carried the team into the playoffs until he went down?

Anyway, my point is no one really knows what is going to happen, so its really no use about arguing who is right and who is wrong you can only just prepare for whatever Rita or any other hurricane decides to do.

By the way the Atlanta Falcons will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Superbowl this year 24-17. Bold prediction huh?
MAX FL WIND 159 KT NE QUAD 09:16:30 Z
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STADIUM EFFECT -- TOP OF WESTERN EYEWALL BRIGHTENING AS SUN RISES
EYE IS CLOUD FILLED BELOW FLIGHT LEVEL
My sister just told me the schools here in st mary parish are closing today at noon.
1263. GetReal
The NHC won't acknowledge it, But Rita now appears to be moving due NW, at about 305 degrees towards central or west LA coast.