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Rita making landfall as a weak Category 3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:51 AM GMT on September 24, 2005

Rita is making landfall near Port Arthur, TX, as a weak Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. There is nothing weak at all about any major hurricane, and it definitely a bad night to be holed up in your house or shelter listening to the awesome destruction unleased by this powerful hurricane. Radar shows some very intense echoes in the northern eyewall smashing into the coast, and infrared satellite imagery confirms the presence of extremely cold cloud tops in the northern eyewall. It appears that the interaction of the eyewall with land is producing extra surface convergence of winds that is forcing up some strong updrafts, creating very high thunderstorm tops.

Where will Rita go?
Most of the latest model runs show Rita making a anti-cyclonic loop over northeastern Texas and central Louisiana, then perhaps heading back south to punish the landfall area five days from now. She may even move back over the waters of the Gulf. She would no longer be a tropical cyclone at that point, and redevelopment is not expected.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Philippe has being absorbed into a large non-tropical low pressure system near Bermuda. This system is expected to move little the next three days, and may develop into a tropical depression. A well-organized tropical disturbance near 11N 33W, off the coast of Africa, has a surface circulation and some deep convection. This system has the potential for development the next few days as it moves westward over the mid-Atlantic. Long range models indicate that this disturbance will likely recurve to the northeast when it reaches the mid-Atlantic Ocean.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey, guys. Guess most of you have hit the pillow.
But anyway - is anybody else seeing what I see in the last satellite loops?
She is definitely stalling, and seemingly also initiating a loop west-southwest. If this motion continues, Houston will be hit from the north - northeast - not a good thing at all. She is still running strong, more so than I would have anticipated after landfall, with CAT1 to CAT2 winds to the northwest and west. Hopefully she will change this tendency, but if not so, it may be very bad. She might even pass back to the gulf and restrenghten, if this motion represents a true loop initiated.
Don't see a stall or a loop starting yet. Looks to still be moving mostly N right now. IMO.
Check out the motion tendency in this radar link:
I had to drive from Springlfied to Decatur yesterday at mid day. It poured the whole way. VIsibility was down to a little over about 4 feet. Lightening was striking all around. For an hour and a half (normally a 45 minute trip, but because of the weather I had to drive slow) we were deluged. When we got home, we looked at the doppler and the storm also seemes to be traveling the same strecth of road...it was nowhere else in the area...but all along the interstate it was wall to wall and treetop tall with driving rain and lightening. Weird.
We are going to have a tropical storm next week in the Gulf... I have said it for two days. It is strange that the GFS doesn't see it any more? I wonder if it is going to be the wave in the carribean?
joe b's take



Rita has pushed inland and my worry about the jog west did not occur, so the landfall was 45 miles up the coast. The I-45 corridor is spared, but this storms challenges are be no means over. Extreme heavy rains in the Texas Louisiana border areas and the increasing threat of a loop that would mean a) enhanced rain back toward New Orleans and b) the chance it comes back out over the gulf are challenges that are added to the obvious... heavy rains and high winds in east Texas toward Louisiana. And looking at the pattern, the tropics will indeed not back down from their rabid attack mode. By that I mean I gully expect 2 new storms on the charts next week at this time, both raising questions as to how they will affect the states.

The cold shot coming, the ridge over the east to follow are no slouches either. Stay tuned.

New Rita positions later this morning.
hooked-where are you seeing the storm? Where is it now?
mobile both are being spawned by the PHILLIPE extra tropical low one at the south end and one on the west of the low
east of bahamas, east of lesser antillies
Let me rephrase this, one at the end of a trof pushing phillipe
hooked-I will be watching those areas, thanks.
does not appear Rita had alot of bite, the highest land gust I have heard was 105, did you hear anything different?
anyone? zzzz everyone sleeping?
Jim Cantore is yapping away on the WeatherChannel about Houston where he is sitting this out, "dodging a bullet", the bullet being Rita. I honestly think he should start worrying about the real possibility of being hit by the ricochet.
The tendency of stalling and bending towards the northwest (and possibly later southwest and south)seems more and more obvious in the radar feeds from Houston/Galveston and Lake Charles.
Any comments on this?
I find it hard to understand why this real possibility does not seem to worry people at all.
All the buoys East of landfall have data stopping at 1am.
i'm awake... just don't have anything to add

i'm just glad Rita didn't ramp back to level 4 before landfall

she's a 2 now.... but i read she may be stalling there for a while? does not sound good.

in fact the stall looks really bad.

heavy, heavy precip over the Sabine River (marking LA, TX border) and Rita not losing strength very quickly.

For the sake of those under her, have to hope she budges and goes somewhere, anywhere even up here to Canada where we could use the rain :)
yep i'm here
Any reports of power outages in NW Houston? We are holed up in Austin and wondering how the area did.
Where's my Baton Rouge people? I never lost power (amazing), just woke. Some tree damage and winds still about 25-30 with gusts of 40+.
I now see that 3 out of the 5 computer models take the remnants of Rita into the Gulf of Mexico. The Bamm model looks bad as it places Rita's remains over the warm water eddy south of Louisianna. It looks like to me that if this system gets pushed into the central Gulf, it would have the potential to redevelope into a tropical storm. With that being said, a 2nd pass would drop additional rain during next landfall.

If Rita dumps 15-20 inches of rain over TX & LA then wouldn't this water end up flowing into the Mississippi River? Here is FL when it rains upstream, the local weather channel posts the crest levels of the river. Have there been any reports about when & how much the Mississipi River will crest at?
Houston should have done ok. Rita came in near TX/LA border.

Still a mean storm. Check out these images - still very heavy convection around the storm center.


Landfall predictions show lefty and many others on here were way off.. I am truly disappointed.. Forecast predictions last night on here were frantic and WAY off, read through the blog about 3 hours prior to landfall, what a joke.. I am included
good point about the crest levels gator, though the rivers I'd be watching are the Sabine and the Red (a Mississippi tributary) which are looking to have Rita parked over their watersheds for days

hooked, almost all predictions were off (I was figuring just east of Galveston) including the NHC
Good AM Hooked, I look a the predictions (NHC included) (my own included)like models.
When you look at the aggregate, you have a guideline.
i hav updated my blog
Hooked, predictions are just tricky business. I seem to remember predictions for near the LA / TX border. That being said, alot of the predictions called for Houston and Houston is feeling the storm.

The question is, how far down do you want to go for accuracy? State level, county level, within 10 miles? Hurricanes are the very soul of chaos theory. You can understand 'em (to a pretty large extent) but you can never predict them with 100% accuracy due to the complexities involved.
528. h0db
The GFS simulated Rita almost perfectly from five days ago, when the other models and the NHC kept centering their tracks well south/west of actual landfall. I'm sure there have been other occassions when the GFS was not this accurate, but it has been frighteningly good this past summer.

Hooked, I don't understand your post, unless it was meant to be funny. Few of those posting here are professional meteorologists, so predictions are just opinions, guesses, etc. The NHC had a devil of a time calling Rita either in terms of intensity, track or landfall. That's why authorities ended up evacuating the entire Texas coast-- remember four days ago when Rita became a Cat 5, they were forecasting landfall near the TX-Mexican border, and then kept moving the track north and east until it made landfall almost inside LA. This is not a criticism of the NHC, just reality of where the prediction state-of-the art is.
i saw those predictions and a few got it very close not to bad i think
hookedontropics - I don't disassociate myself with the others in thinking Rita was going to come onshore strogner than she did. THere was a lot of talk about her ~930 mb pressure, so the thinking was that the winds *had* to be higher. In retrospect, I think it was overlooked that it is the pressure gradient that creates higher windspeeds, not the absolute pressure, but rather the relative pressure difference rate of change over distance. I haven't done "the math" on this (e.g. charted the pressure fields), but I am guessing that the gradient for Rita was not as strong as one would expect. This could be due to her relatively large size (say, compared to Charlie with its 941 mb), and also due to the surrounding environment, like the lack of any very strong nearby high pressure.

For example, on the East Coast, it is not that unusual to get a "nor'easter" with high winds due to very strong high pressure, even with the lack of a significant low pressure center. You can get gale force winds with a clear sky, or at worst dragging onshore low-topped convergence showers in bands, without having a real storm nearby.

Easy to talk about with "hindsight" I know, but something to remember for future storms. Also another knock against Saffir-Simpson and other simplistic measures of storm strength.
A question though, this is the second major storm that was probably 30% weaker / smaller / whatever... at landfall than it was 24 hours before landfall. Kat suffered from dry air incursions right before landfall as did Rita. Does this happen most of the time? Do the majority of these storms weaken right before landfall?
8-10 foot surge reported in the Lake Charles area. Cameron, LA seemed to get the strongest wind last night with 120mph reported by the Houston news.

Overall, the news is reporting less than expected damage. It's still to early to tell, but it appears the storm pulled a "Dennis." Still, no hurricane is good, but the news is still running clips putting this storm on par with Andrew, Camille, and Katrina when it doesn't even appear to be an Ivan.
hooked if you look at gfdl and bam they have rita looping right over biloxi into gulf and and coming back on gfs long term also have system hitting mouth of river oct 6. my plastic roof is history lol. by the way why is everybody so suprised by lefty and nhc they are both as useful as boobs on a boaR hog. simply put hooked joe knows.
120 mph
10AM Saturday
Louisianna/Texas Border

Just in case you all forgot..LOL..Ok i got the timing wrong but 5 days out thats the best i could do..LOL..I am not one to gloat or pound my chest thats not my style..LOL..But what the heck I deserve oneday of fun..LOL..Catch you all later, it was along night have to spend some time with the family today..
chicago you know blizzards so i want correct you on that here in biloxi area i can assure katrina was much stornger than you are hearing come take alook this storm destroyed areas 120miles north of coast the winds gusted to 125mph in hattiesburg laurel area 90 miles north of gulfport ask mobbeel he was 100 miles west of center and mobile had 12ft of water into the city katrina underated rita overrated.
Saint, I'd beg to differ with you. I don't think anybody's predictions +72 hours out are any good on a consistent basis. Since it's a crap shoot at that point, everybody's on a somewhat even footing. Lefty explains alot of the technical data that is produced by the nhc and others for those of us who don't understand it. Begging your pardon, but that's a heckuvalot more useful that boobs on a boar...
537. tedly
Thank you all. What a fine discussion is going on. No personal attacks, no politics, even good spelling. Right now, the Blog is what it should be.

Hope Rita does not loop and go back to the Gulf.
Saint, then the question is, was Kat as powerful at landfall as she looked 12 hours or so before? I'm not going to get into a discussion about relative devastation, we can all see the results, that's kinda not my question.
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 2:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2005.
120 mph
10AM Saturday
Louisianna/Texas Border

Just in case you all forgot..LOL..Ok i got the timing wrong but 5 days out thats the best i could do..LOL..I am not one to gloat or pound my chest thats not my style..LOL..But what the heck I deserve oneday of fun..LOL..Catch you all later, it was along night have to spend some time with the family today..
Anyone have info on Morgan City? Thanks

That WAS a pretty darn good prediction.
Well chicago, I as a meteorologist look at more then just the models when making my predictions...I think some people get caught up in the models right away when making a 5 day prediction...You need to look at climatology as well...most people do not..How many systems in Late Sept. moved west when entering the Gulf and landfalled in Texas, not many...So you take the model data and climatology and the overall synoptic pattern and make your forecast..
Again I am not perfect..LOL..As a forecaster you will only be correct about 70% of the time..And the NHC did an ok job..i think it took them alittle longer to come around and shift the track north, but the hurricane hit within the cone and thats all we can ask for...
ok, I'm obviously in way over my head here, but what the heck...

Aren't the models supposed (emphasis on supposed) to take some of that into consideration? I thought I remembered reading that (GDFL?) takes the global forcast as input?

And, what does that really mean? LOL
GainesvilleGator - I've been a lurker here for most of the hurricane season, but thought I would give a bit of input on your observation about the river stages. Having lived in Baton Rouge for 30 years, it is the smaller rivers such as the Amite, Comite, Tickfall, Tangipahoa, which drain into Lake Maurepas and on to Pontchartain that are the major concern for inland flooding. There are no rivers south of the Red which drain into the Mississippi. This is the link for river stages http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/html/rvs.shtml
right now in san Augustine Texas there are serious gusts and downpours. The trees are groaning ready to snap. Maybe evacuating up to the woods wasnt such a good idea.
so folks, what about the issue now at hand, which is how much rain is going to get dumped where by Rita?

NHC 5-day track shows Rita crawling north and only reaching Texarcana by THURSDAY! Those of you with met. degrees, how much rain are we looking at (widespread and peaks), and what sort of crests can be expected on Sabine and Mississippi?
Oh they do chicago to an extent...But they are definately not perfect...And they did eventually shift to the north as we got closer to lanfall...i am not a model basher by any means, I use them, but sometimes as a forecaster you have to look outside the box alittle bit..Anyway this will be a debate for another day..Catch you all later, you all gave great info here during the storm which i enjoyed watching..
Enjoy the family time WG. I've got to go coach soccer in an hour or so myself =)
weatherguy you hit the nail on the head climatology john hope used this constantly and so does bastardi and the models lefty looks at and he reads the info right off nhc page i know my 11 year old can do that but to compare climatology and understanding of historical is a gift weatherguy has it think maybe he is kinned to old joe lol, but you folks keep feeding left because thats what he is looking for but if you want good info try accu pro and thier new hiree weather guy the man. lol
chicago yes katrina was that strong camiile was 190 sustained and this did more damage yes it was bigger than camille but it was much stronger and your idol lefty said that the west side was weak well se la might disagree with that not picking on you but take left for what he is a young kid who should sometimes should listen more and learn you do have great meterologist tropical that is from midwest uni wisc osu and all the accu pros come from psu listen to them.

Please respond at link above.
New Blog:

In the wake of this year's hurricanes, there has been a fair amount of criticism of the Safir- Simpson scale. In particular, the critics say the scope of the scale is too narrow.
Should there be a new scale that would address the different aspects of a hurricane. I know from a "consumer" standpoint there are three things that interest me when looking at hurricane strength:

1) Wind
2) Storm Surge
3) Rainfall/Flooding

Should we change the system, modify it, add to it, or leave it alone.
If you offer an idea for change, will it help educate and thus better prepare the consumer.
Have fun!

So Saint, the "weakening" that happened to Kat right before landfall (the dry air incursions that messed up it's radar profile, etc) more weakened it's appearance than it's "strength"?

Please respond at link above.
New Blog:

In the wake of this year's hurricanes, there has been a fair amount of criticism of the Safir- Simpson scale. In particular, the critics say the scope of the scale is too narrow.
Should there be a new scale that would address the different aspects of a hurricane. I know from a "consumer" standpoint there are three things that interest me when looking at hurricane strength:

1) Wind
2) Storm Surge
3) Rainfall/Flooding

Should we change the system, modify it, add to it, or leave it alone.
If you offer an idea for change, will it help educate and thus better prepare the consumer.
Have fun!

hey all i miss a lot last night when i had to go to bed at 11:30pm my time was any one lookeing at the news at the time like cnn or twc to see what was going on overe there or did it get to lol for them to do any more liveupdat for them so where did this made land fall last nigh and did the winds got back up to 130mph any one yet me no ok all
8888888888, Found this for you

Rita Hits Gulf Coast, Causing Flooding
Sep 24 8:47 AM US/Eastern

Associated Press Writer


Hurricane Rita plowed into the Gulf Coast early Saturday, lashing Texas and Louisiana with driving rain, flooding low-lying regions, knocking power out to more than 675,000 people and sparking fires across the region.

Rita made landfall at 3:30 a.m. EDT as a Category 3 storm just east of Sabine Pass, on the Texas-Louisiana line, bringing a 20-foot storm surge and up to 25 inches of rain, the National Hurricane Center said. Within four hours it had weakened to a Category 2 storm, with top winds of 100 mph, as it moved further inland between Beaumont and Jasper, Texas.
88888888, I trying to catch up myself. There is talk about the storm possibly stalling over Arklatex then returning to the gulf causing massive flooding to south LA including NOLA.
558. wxfan
Ok folks, I'm here in a suburb of Little Rock, Arkansas. Should we worry about flooding here?

My house is up high but I'm worried about downtown Little Rock, which is at the lowest point in the city (Arkansas River). I'm hearing we could get a foot of rain if it parks in the wrong place.
Any news on South Lake Charles esp. concerning the storm surge.
thank you all was any one lookeing at the news last night like cnn or twc or a live up date or did it get to lol for them to be out there any more when the storm was makeing land fall the last i her that they where going to call it it nigh in tell tday
just finished cutting grass..

HERE IS JOE B.'s take


psns Rita 12z Sun 33.3,95.0 40 kts Monday 33.8,94.0 30 kts Tuesday 31.5,91.0 25 kts Wednesday 28.5,91.0 35 kts Thur 26.5,95.0 45 kts.

Yes, I am "loopy"

ciao for now ****

As for last night... I will find my post talking about the strength.. 2hrs from landfall, people were going nuts on here and then when I saw a radar loop explode, even I expected it to be higher.. I am happy my flip flop was wrong
weatherguy3 one hell of a call from the 19th.. TPC should be calling you any time... to get a clue
wxfan, depends on how this plays out as to whether you've got trouble in Little Rock.

Places I'd worry about most for flooding based on current models are Texarcana, Shreveport, Alexandria and all along the sabine.

Problem is, models are all over the place with further track so no one really has a clue
Any info on storm surge in Cameron,LA?
models are extremely suspect when a storm is nearly stalled... IT IS amazing to see.. When a cyclone is moving faster, it usually has at the very least a 3 day cluster.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 241504
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005








Can you say hello Stan and Tammy?
If you want news from the area try the local station on this link since the Lake Charles TV station is down.

3 News Stations
PC Beach, thanks for the river flood stages link. Am I reading this correctly, the Red River has a flood stage of 48 ft and it will be at 16.6 ft Wednesday? If that is the case than that drought out there in Texas has been real bad this year.
so whe could we have S and T out there?
Yeah we all kinda got a little out of control here last night - but the sat pic did look impressive. Guess that's why we're not 'experts' - but then Bastardi was off quite a bit too. I am glad it wasn't as bad as we all thought.
Baton Rouge checking in.....just one little step above a pretty good thunderstorm. Electricity didn't even blink here - all services intact. Not even much vegetation debris around - guess the loose stuff was gone due to Katrina. All in all, a relative non-event. So far.
Well I hope that the people of Cameron LA have a place to come back to.......I just got my first glimpse of the satellite......the whole gulf of mexico is so cool looking right now......if you look at the IR or the water vapor....i cant remember it looking this way......it looks like it has been painted with small brush.....fanned spray....very unique....also kind of eerie......the official landfall was in Louisiana and Cameron probably had it as bad as anyone......thats amazing that it hit Louisiana and not Texas....it must be an optical illusion....I just know that Perfect Predicters on here cannot be wrong.....lol......its just more proof that really no one knows.....
the last 30 min in Baton Rouge have been the worst so far...If we can make it through the next 45 or so we should be okay. lots of power outages but not as widespread as during katrina. we lost ours last night and got it back already this morning. i wouldn't be surprised if we lost it again very soon
i shall toot my horn quietly. my prediction on the 20th was pretty much right- although i thought it would hit a bit more to the southern end of my range- and maybe a hair stronger. but not bad for a first try.
I agree we've been having some rough weather in the last few minutes in BR. It seems that overnight, the wind blew the water through cracks in my window, (some water has pooled on the windowsill). I wonder how high our gusts were during the night
did evere one on this weather blog mthat is from TX or LA that made it ok and is evere one safe and what is it like now and how is your home dong in this storm
good morning guys. hope everyone is safe
Good Morning Lefty, Ok the question of the day. To loop or not to loop? hehehe
hey leftyy420 i hop evere one is safe to so what up so when could we see S and T comeing are way
Has anyone noticed that once again rita is not following the script that NHC forecasters have drawn up for her and is on the move? (no sign of a stall at all yet)
Gotta go for a while. I'll look back later to see what you say, Lefty.
hey 89gg, ur a fake so when u can stop copying people than maybe i can answer ur questions. in fact ur probly the same guy who copies me and ur porbly muffinman. u have issues i clicked on the real 889gg name so it hsows up in a different color. not that i like or can stand 889g, just i can't stand a fake
lol say
i am not the muffinman and i am not a fake leftyy420 so lol
Just an Update:

Outer rain bands moving into Northeast Texas.

I'm 80 miles east of Dallas, It has just begun raining with wind gusts probably in the 30 to 40 mph range. So far nothing bad.
Well, Well... Rita makes landfall with minimal fanfare and lots of hype. The computer models failed us yet again in SE Texas. Mandatory evacuations of over 2 million people that proved to be unnessary; wise but unnessary. The media and forecasters were and still are eager for this thing to be a catastrophe that simply isn't going to be. As I said last night, Rita will continue to move northward and begin shifting northeast and get drawn up along the front currently moving across the plains. The widespread 24 inches of rain is only a dream in the media. Widespread 2 inch amounts with pockets of 4-8 inches possible. Minimal damage along the coast in the wake of Rita compared to the storms that hit MS, FL, LA, and AL.

One thing on the evacuations that took place -- When Kat hit LA everyone was bitching that the gov't didn't do enough to warn them. When Rita was threatening TX, it seemed wise not to let events that took place in LA re-occur. Now that the storm has passed with little damaging wind, everyone is bitching that the gov't did too much. I guess the moral of the story is -- damned if you do, damned if you don't....
bravo i couldnt say it better myself
wonder how many will evacuate if we get another one in the gulf??
WX, Well Dam. Gov. Riley ordered a mandatory evac of Mobile county for Dennis. People who complained at the time now admit they were wrong. But, the next time, the same ones will complain again.
wx. the storm is not even over and ur on here claiming it was hyped. there are small towns all accross the gulf that no one ha sheard from or seen. people are trapped in a aprtment buidling collapse in beaumont. not to mention other horrors we have yet to see. there was a woman in that fire in galveston. she has 3rd degree burns over 20 percent of her body. go tell her it was hyped. people lost live, homes and property and even befor the storm has ended you come in here opening ur mouth. u should be ashamed. u should also hope the storm does not stall asd many more will lose life or property from this storm. 15+ inches have already fallen and more will fall. incase u didn't know most deaths in a hurricane happen after the storm do to inland fresh water flooding. but i guess u sitting in the comfort of ur little chair can judge the devesattion this storm has casued caue u haven't seen the damage on tv. its people like you who make me sick
Would appreciate info from those of you in the Baton Rouge area how things are going there. Especially the southeast areas of White Oak Landing, Shenandoah, and over by Cortana Mall. Lots of relatives and friends in those areas. Thanks!

Gainesville - yes,it looks as though the rivers are definitely low enough to handle quite a bit of water. Guess it depends on how long (and IF) Rita lingers over the area.
maybe u expected a katrina, this was rita and when her story is done unfolding there will be plenty of people who will have suffered enough. also u seem like u wanted to see total destruction. thats even sicker.
Amen, Lefty.

Not to take away from the happenings of Rita, but Lefty
take a look at this.


This is what was occuring on TOP of the world, while Rita was wreaking havac down there. What in the world is going on with our weather these days?
i think wx comments as towards about the people complaining after the storm there will always be people who do not agree with there decisions
looks whats starting to go on on the highway comming into galv.people are not listining and causing back log
for emer.vehicles
yeah destiny, thta sounds bad

it just makes me sick. like the same people who came in here on manday after katrina and said we dodged a bullet only to see the devestation of the gulf coast days latyer and the horrible outcome in no. i have said it befor and i will say it again if one home is detroyed, one life taken no one dodged a bullet.
Lefty, that kind of damage can happen with a TROPICAL STORM. This was a supposed 'cat 3' hurricane -- IT WAS SUPPOSED TO LEVEL AND FLOOD GALVESTON AND HOUSTON. That didn't happen. I was in Winnie and Anahuac yesterday and again over night. Is there damage -- yes. Were there lives lost -- yes. Could that fire have happend without a hurricane -- yes. Now, was the damage minimal -- yes. Was there massive loss of life as seen with Kat -- absolutely not. I am saying this is not anywhere near the catastrophe that the media and forecasters predicted; AND THAT IS A GOOD THING. People apparently like yourself and the media who actually want to see widespread major damage are who make me sick, sir.

Nobody jumps through their ass when a house burns up and burns a woman when a storm doesn't hit -- why are we so hyped up because 3 buildings caught fire?? That happens EVERYDAY in America. I know it's tragic, but geeze, get over it. The effects were minimal.
well said, Lefty. There are many areas gotten hammered not heard from yet, many more getting looooooooooong torrential downpours (I've noticed esp. betw. Shreveport and Lufkin from radar, probably others).

Let's be glad if Rita has caused less harm than predicted, but let's not count our chickens...
There is a press conference for the city of Houston on Fox now. I guess they are showing it because its a large market and many people are out of town.
LA is nailed and the news stays on Houston with minimal damage.
Its all about market size and ratings I guess.
salter, the storm is still htting parts of lousian and the surge is still riing alon the coast as well as in lake charles. if the storm had not gone more north houston would have been flloded and galveston would have been detsroyed. the point is u don't make the comments wx made nor do you make them less than 12 hrs after landfall. after andrew we did not about homested for 36 hrs. you do not know what has really happened for days tocome and for the sake of those hurt orkiled, or whose property has been destroyed, u do not make comments like that. i thought after katrina we all understood the power of these things and if its just one town, one home , one life, its one to many
599. IKE
Joe Bastardi...this is Texas's storm....WRONG....it made landfall in LA.

Bastardi.....this will be the worst storm to ever hit Texas...WRONG again.

Bastardi....Katrina will hit between Pensacola and Cape San Blas, Fl.....WRONG again.

How much money does this guy get paid?
Destiny, Very Interesting
than wx what ur point. u just said people probly dies, property was damaged. do u not have a soul. ur seem angry, why.today should be a day to be thankfull it was not as bad as feared and a day of finding out if family and friends are ok. also a day to realise the damage. landfall was 9 hrs ago and ur in here running ur mouth. once again whats ur point
i'm not arguing with you but some of wx comments do hold water. mainly about the people that are complaining about having to evacuate ok
lol so people ahd to evacuate, and it was not perfect. i would have had millions inconvienced to save lives than to see another nola, wouldn't you? and ur comments about it makes u seem ignorant to the fact that had she hit galveston head on houston would ahve been flooded with surge. so i commend them for the evacs. for you guys to complain about the evacs is the same type of thinking that casue the wholenola situation to begin with
Everyone is making assumptions based on what they see on TV. If there's anything we've learned this season, when the people on TV say that it wasn't as bad as expected, it's been worse. We have not seen anything out of Port Arthur and Lake Charles yet. I heard earlier today on CNN that levees were burst and Lake Charles was flooding. To say that this storm was overhyped and was minimal in damage is not just wrong, it's grossly irresponsible.

Just now hearing reporter Sanjay Gupta on CNN say that the mayor of Lake Charles has requested the help of General Honore and that the flood waters are rising and the situation is getting worse in Lake Charles. The book has not been written on Rita and we will probably see some grotesque sites from the point of landfall.
salyer like i said, today should be a day of thanfullness and remorse for thos affected. thanfull that it did not hit a worse area like gaveston and houstone, remorse for thos it did hit and for their loss. u and wx have shown neither. thats the sickening part
ok lefty forget it your point is all that matters i thought this was a blog for those people s opinions
i guess i was wrong.

well put, well put. i am not watching tv to see the damage i and looking to see hope, that it was not that bad. but i am not ignorant enough to know it was bad and poor people lost their lives or property
salter i neevr said ur point didn't matter. i just said that ur point is ignorant view when it is 9 hours after landfall and people are still suffering. and ur complaint is that houston had to evac for probly no reason. so would u have liked to seen houston flattened?
MSNBC just spoke of a woman that stayed in Lake Charles and she said her whole neighborhood is gone.
besides lefty i'm not one to wish DEATH AND DESTRUTION on anyone i was in punta gorda for weeks helping with the clean up and seeing what a storm can do i dont wish that on anyone
Ike, The NHC was saying the same thing. Bastardi was just louder about it.

On a similar note...
I think the people who report the weather to the public don't want to take responsibilty for making a wrong call if it is too different from NHC.
It would be refreshing to have someone just say "subject to change, please stay tuned"
I also think the NHC is a little nervous about making a wrong call that is catastrophic to a highly populated area.
It seems the early predictions skew to the most highly populated area (maybe thats the right thing to do considering their responsibility). I hate to say, "do the least harm". But, you get the point.
than don't complain when out of this their is hope. and be thankfull houston fared well but ur posts make it seem like peopel jumped the gun by evacing a vulnerable city
613. IKE
Katrina made Rita's fears what they were. Plus the fact that Rita, at one time, had 175 mph winds. The problem was, Rita still had 2-3 days before landfall when it attained those winds...plenty of time to weaken which it did. No one knew it would, the NHC thought it might..which proved correct. It could have been much worse..thank God it wasn't. If I lived in Houston and elsewhere in the path/cone of Rita...I would have evacuated.

Katrina made a lot of folks realize...you NEVER take these storms for granted. They'll be others this year. The weather pattern is still there for the taking.....like Stan and Tammy and the next 1 or 2 or 3 names. Beware the eastern gulf and the east coast. You could be next to decide if you should evacuate. I did...for Opal...Ivan...Dennis and I will for the next BIG one that threatens the Florida panahandle.
Hearing now that some of the refineries may be on fire.
see your missing the fact we are talking about it isnt me or wx that were complaining about the evac. its the people that had to go and it didnt hit THANK GOD that are complaining
A few years back, an F5 tornado flattened our town in Illinois with no warning. Of course, inquiry and blame followed. Since then, the sirens go off when it get cloudy. So what happens now? People start ignoring the sirens.

I guess it's just human nature. Our house was destroyed, when we hear the sirens we quickly go to the basement. If I lived in Houston, I'd be typing from Phoenix right now: not upset because I had to evacuate, but thankful that my town was still there to go home to.
Ok, what gives the media the right to cry wolf BEFORE a storm strikes. Yet I get on here AFTER the fact and say, there IS NO WIDESPREAD MAJOR DAMAGE.

Am I angry, not really. Agitated, you damn strait. The past 3 days have gotten me this way. People where I live (which is 150 miles inland) have filled the stores bracing for a hurricane because the NWS on Tuesday said we would lose power, mobile homes would be destroyed, damage to roofs would be widespread, and flooding would be tremendous. NONE OF THIS CAME ANYWHERE NEAR THAT. In fact, we haven't seen one drop of rain where I am at. You know, when the forecasters say something is going to happen, I expect them to be close. This isn't anywhere NEAR close and I believe a 2 year old could have done better. You can say on Tuesday we thought it would do all that but on Thursday it appeared less likely. WHY DON'T THEY COME OUT AND SAY, WE MADE A MISTAKE -- IT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN???????????????? Our forecast still has a 90% chance of rain, winds of 35-45 mph gusts to 60 mph for today. Eh hum, let's look outside -- sunny skies, gentle breeze and the storm is to our northeast. Our area didn't see a drop with 80%, 90%, and 100% chance of rain... Would you not be agitated (this is much needed rain by the way).

Following kat, ivan, and the other storms last year, in the first hour or two (almost immediately) following the storm, there were pictures of entire subdivisions wiped out, no resemblance of some towns, roofs blown off almost every house, etc. Today the media is standing by a 200 y/o rotton oak tree claiming how bad it was. Twigs laying in the street. Come on, a strong norther could have done some of this damage. YES THERE ARE SOME HOMES DESTROYED, YES THE ROOF OF A DAIRY QUEEN SUSTAINED DAMAGE, AND YES AN ICE MACHINE DID BLOW OVER. But I am only repeating what mayors and emergency people in these little towns are saying and that is -- "we dodged a bullet".
Steve Gregory says the damage is likely very near the extent of Ivan's last year.
salter u should go back and read wx comments that u agree with. now if ur point is different stae it as such, but wx comments was this was nothing and wa shyped. i am sorry but until it is over and not 1 home not 1 life was detroyed than it wasn't hyped.

also whne u are in the possible path of a storm u have to follow rule number 1

Plan for the wrose hope for the best

so u evac cause the worse would detroy the city and u hope it doesn come. looks like prayers were answered bu thety were ready for it. that is what u should be spweing not over hype
620. IKE
That's the problem with Bastardi...he's too loud and doesn't admit that..."I was wrong". He's not perfect, but tries to act like he is.

The NHC isn't perfect either, but at least they admit it. To me the NHC does a pretty good job.
You're from Plainfield chicagowatcher. God bless ya.
I have to agree with Lefty in that we should wait until we hear from the areas hardest hit. As I recall from Katrina, initial reports said that things were not as bad as expected. We all know that this was NOT the case. We ought to get a good idea by Wednesday how much damage was done. From Dr. Masters & Steve Gregory posts, Rita will still be lingering around then. The LSU vs Tennessee football game may be played during a monsoon on Monday night. The final chapters of Rita have not yet been written.
see wx ur agiteated cause u didn;t see any weather. lol but a different trakc u might not even be on the computer right now. while ur agitated rthats ur problem. people still in the storm don;t have time to be agitated. that eprson who died can't be agitated.
I have a feeling we are all going to be stunned for the 4th time this year when we see video from the coast.
*grins at tornatoty*
Ever know someone who went to the doctor and they tried this, tried that, tried something else, until they fixed it (or didn't). We're all kinda spoiled by the near six sigma perfection that we can impose on pieces of our own technology. But when it comes to natural systems, sometimes you just can never tell...
i am not even trying to imagine the damge we will see. all i know is i am not ignorant enough to coime in here and call it over hyped. for all weknow some one in this blogs family might bein a devestated area. its called being a human. and wx is more mad casue he planned for something that didn;t happen. oh boo hoo wx. u should be thankfull. go see ur family, tell ur mom u lover her. but don't make ignorant staements becasue u was inconvienced
just downgraded to a tropical storm.
Chicagowatcher, were you home when it hit? If so, did you see a funnel or anything that led you to believe it was a funnel? Sorry if I bring back bad memories, just curious, obsessed with that monster.
By the way, I'm not complaining about the evacuations... I went to Houston twice, once yesterday and once last night and didn't have any problem getting there or back. I did fill up before I left, sooo.... well, I didn't have to set up camp on the side of an intersate.

The point I am getting at is this was hyped up in TEXAS. I don't know what the case is in LA, but from the reporters on TV, the mayors, etc. they are all saying there is some damage, but they feel they "dodged a bullet".

I think there is a manic obsession by the media to see damage, and that JACKASS WOLF BLITZED WANTS TO SEE THE BODIES. Sorry, I have rant on Blitzed, if anyone hopes there are lives lost it's him: "can you give us a feel for how many bodies there are," first thing "how many bodies are lying around," "are the bodies decomposing," etc. Why doesn't Wolfy come out and say it "show us the f.cking bodies!." Ok, enough of the rant. But I am saying the damage isn't as bad as expected, that's a good thing...EVERYONE GO HOME, PICK UP THE FEW SHINGLES AND REPLACE THE SIGNS, AND GET ON WITH IT...
nope, but my wife was tornadoty. She heard the wind and looked out the window. She was wondering why all the grass was lying down, mashed flat against the ground when all the windows exploded.
I'd like to see wxwatcher's reactions when we see the worst of the damage...
Ike, True enough.
BTW I'm not against the NHC. I think they do a good job. My problem is more with the private sector not being willing to go out on a limb. TWC is 24/7. Say, "the storm is taking a more northerly track" when it happens. I think sometimes they wanted to, hinted. Just get some brass ones and state the obvious. Don't wait for the NHC to say it first. Also, if they say something different than NHC, just say it.... a disclaimer.
Uh Oh I'm ranting.
Thanks chicagowatcher.
leftyy.....you're the voice of reason on here today.

I'm sure all those people that evacuated prefer to come back to a home instead of a pile of rubble. Better safe than sorry. Hopefully the evacuation orders will always be heeded as well as they were in this case.
wx the damage may not be bad where ur at or areas the media are at but there are hundred of small towns and communites like homestead in florida that we won;t know about for days. remebr the media trys to be where itds bad but not to bad. they weren't on the coast or in those small towns. those are the people i am worried about. and u should be 2
yeah cosmic, all the who is right who is worng goes out the window the couple of days after a major cane hits land. we need to give hope and prayers to those affected. those towns no one has heard from and surge is still rising. we won;t know until the surge recedes how the coast fared.
LOL, I'm not AGITATED we didn't see any weather from this storm.. I am PISSED. When you are in a drought that we are in and you have a 90% and 100% chance of rain and you don't see a drop... You would be PISSED as well. And when you don't see a drop with those kind of rain chances -- THAT IS HYPE!

Us here in central, east central, and south central TX were welcoming Rita with open arms. I actually saw a piece of plywood by a field that had "Rita this way" with arrows spray painted pointing to his field. We here in TX who didn't see rain are pissed.
Heard there was at least one book written about that storm tornado, but I've never seen it. For years the word on that storm was that it wasn't a tornado at all, just some kind of microburst. Thinking on that has changed, but I'm not sure why.
639. IKE
I like Dr. Lyons on TWC. He does a good job and does state what he thinks will happen. Most of the others on there are stating what we can find out, in advance, on wunderground.com. from the NWS and the NHC.

Speaking of TWC...I sure miss John Hope. He was a professional.
I feel for ya for the drought though wx. We're down about 10" here in Illinois. Have friends who are farmers who are getting reaquainted with their insurance agents...
wx that doesn't give u the right to undereastimate the devestation some people have been thru. ur comments in here are ignorant and hurtfull. but thats why i am going to go next to my wife and be thankfull that i woke up today. unlike some people who wake up to nothing left. or worse don;t wake up at all
Lefty, The media goes where they can get the most viewers. Houston = big market NOLA = big public sympathy (deserved)
Later the media will show some of the real story. But even that will be distorted to gain an audience or in some cases, promote their own agenda.
Lefty, the wife wouldn't let you chase down to Houston??

644. IKE
Jacky Jeras(sp???) on CNN must be in need of sleep. She just said...Stay inside, because of the weather coming, in Shreveport..."enjoy some coffee, THIS MORNING?!?!?!? Uh...it's 1 pm in LA. Earlier she was showing the NHC 5-day forecast map and stated today is SUNDAY!?!?!?!?
wx...i think your p-o'd feeling about the storm are not felt by the vast majority of texans. Most aremost likely very thankful that the storm went forther to the NE. There is a big difference between a rainstorm and a cat 3 or 4 storm. More than inch or two of rain does nothing for a drought as it just runs off.
Dr. Masters has a new blog post.
647. IKE
wxwatcher...welcome Rita with open arms??? You can't be serious??? Come on. I understand your need for rain, but open arms???
sngalla, we NEED a hard 5 inch rain here..!!!!!! The tanks are dry and we are pumping water for cattle. We would have welcomed her with open arms.
What you need is several days of gentle rains so that ground has time to absorb it. A five inch rain would be a waste.
Yes, Everytime I watch TWC, I think of him.

I remember last night some reporter saying something about a last minute turn to the North. He didn't know what we had been seeing since the day before.

I think there is a story behind why Jim Cantore was in Houston instead of the state line. When he said he had never covered a hurricane from a city, it spoke volumes to me.
In a drought, our main concern is water for cattle. Tanks (the ones in the ground) are dry, in some cases bone dry. Hard rains are needed so runoff fills them. Gentle rain does nothing for tanks except make them a mud trap for cattle as we've seen cattle stuck before.

Our next concern is getting those gentle rains, but our priority is resuppling tanks.
I would like to thank SPOON for his T.V. link/webpage using the three local stations. That was one of the coolest uses of the internet I have ever seen in time of emergency. I was able to give local news to people from the effected area that they could not get where they were. Very cool, many thanks!
Trey P. (wunderground blog lurker)