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Rita: another Katrina?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2005

It's been a long time since Texas had a severe hurricane. Hurricane Bret hit the state in 1999 as a Category 4 hurricane, but was small and hit the relatively unpopulated Padre Island National Seashore. Bret gave Texas the unique distinction of being the only state to get hit by a Category 4 hurricane that didn't get its name retired. In 1988, Hurricane Gilbert, the strongest hurricane of all time, just missed Texas, hitting south of the border. The last hurricane to do serious damage to Texas was Hurricane Alica of 1983, which hit Galveston as a weak Category 3 storm, pushing a 10 - 12 foot storm surge into Galveston Bay. Alica killed 21 people, and its $2 billion price tag was the highest in Texas hurricane history.

Texas's luck is about to change. Rita, looking more and more like a nightmare copy of Katrina somehow displaced in time, will make sure of that. The forecast models we so heavily rely on did not anticipate another Katrina-like storm when Rita first formed and plowed through the Florida Straits. But now, the forecasts mirror the reality unfolding today in the Gulf of Mexico. Rita will be another huge destructive hurricane for the Gulf Coast. This time, it is Texas's turn. Every other state on the Gulf Coast has borne the burden of the immense destruction created by our unprecedented onslaught of intense hurricanes the past two hurricane seasons. No state will be left out.

Rita's impact on the Florida Keys
The residents of the Keys returning to their homes today are the lucky ones, for the Keys escaped serious damage. A 4 - 6 foot storm surge did hit the Lower Keys and flood the Coastal Highway, but this quickly subsided and the highway is now open to traffic again. Some minor to moderate wind damage occurred, but winds in Marathon only reached 38 mph, gusting to 53 mph, while the winds at Key West Airport reached 56 mph, gusting to 73 mph. There was an unofficial report of sustained winds of 75 mph gusting to 102 mph in Key West. Rainfall amounts of up to 12 inches occurred in the Keys, causing minor flooding problems.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from Hurricane Rita.


Figure 2. Wind and pressure plot from a coastal weather station in the Lower Keys. Note how the pressure after Rita's passage remains lower than that before her passage--Rita has depressed pressure values over an area hundreds of miles wide.

Rita now
Rita's presentation on satellite imagery is classic; she has a well-formed eye, large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of cirrus clouds surrounding the eye, and well developed outflow on all sides, particularly to the north. This is the look of a solid, intensifying Category 4 hurricane. Intensification will continue until the eye shrinks to 10 miles or so in diameter and grows unstable, when the eyewall will collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle will begin. This may take another 24 hours or so, at which point Rita could be a Category 5 hurricane. Rita is currently smaller than Katrina, though. Katrina at her peak had hurricane force winds that extended outward 120 miles from the center; Rita's hurricane force winds only extend out 45 miles from the center. This will change as Rita continues to intensify and expand in size over the next day or two. There is little shear over Rita at present, nor is there expected to be the next three days. Water temperatures are 1 - 2C cooler over the central Gulf than they were for Katrina, which may keep Rita from attaining quite the intensity Katrina did. However, once Rita crosses the Gulf and arrives in the western Gulf on Friday, water temperatures warm back up to 30 - 31C, about the same temperatures as the waters Katrina had to work with. I doubt Rita will match Katrina's size or ferocity, but she might come to within 90% of the storm that Katrina was.

Rita at landfall
Rita's future intensity will largely be controlled by impossible-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles. Rita is growing large enough that she is creating her own upper level environment that will be relatively impervious to any external shearing winds that try to weaken her. I expect Rita to be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall.

The landfall location forecast has increased in confidence since yesterday, as the computer models have started to converge on a landfall location on the middle Texas coast. Western Louisiana still needs to be concerned, as does Corpus Christi, but New Orleans should escape Rita with nothing more than some fairly ordinary thunderstorms in some of the outermost spiral bands. A significant storm surge capable of flooding New Orleans is very unlikely.

A very significant storm surge is expected along and to the right of where Rita makes landfall on the Texas coast. Surge heights may reach 18 feet or higher, breaking the record 18.5 foot storm surge seen in 1961 during the Category 4 Hurricane Carla.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Storm Philippe continues northward away from land, and is not not expected to be a threat. Strong shearing winds will likely tear Philippe apart by Saturday. The remainder of the tropics are quiet and expected to remain so through Friday. By Saturday, the chances of tropical storm development off the coast of Africa begin to increase.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Carla was the last "real" hurricane we had here in Brazoria County. Alicia was a baby compared to her. We lived in Freeport during Alicia. We left, but on returning all we had to deal with were tree limbs. Our power didn't even go out.

Carla was a whole other story.
Everything I've read over the past couple of days indicated that the SSTs in the Gulf were too low to sustain a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane (with the exception being in the vicinity of the Loop Current). What happened to that analysis?
We stayed through Alica - I was only 4 years old, but the power did go out at our house on the east side of Houston. The eye passed right over the house too.

We are in galveston county for this one and have a mandatory evacuation starting tonight.
Link

Wave forecast, on top of Surge noted above...
gwhizkids, I was wondering the same thing! Thought guidance said the Katrina-churned waters were too cool to feed Rita much in the way of warmth.
It's just coming out of the Gulf Stream now, where it had so much to work with. I'm thinking it will level off for the next little while, then explode in the Loop Current to a 185 mph Category 5 storm with a central pressure as low as 896 mb!

Current - 24.4/85.3 - 948mb - 135mph
6 hrs - 24.5/86.5 - 936mb - 145mph
12 hrs - 24.8/87.7 - 931mb - 145mph
24 hrs - 25.2/89.5 - 925mb - 155mph
36 hrs - 25.6/91.8 - 896mb - 185mph
48 hrs - 26.3/93.3 - 909mb - 175mph
60 hrs - 27.4/93.2 - 915mb - 165mph
72 hrs - 28.9/95.9 - 924mb - 150mph Landfall
96 hrs - 31.8/96.4 - 985mb - 70mph Inland
120 hrs - 36.0/96.0 - 1001mb - 30mph Inland Extratropical
Here's the link to the main page of the UCF damage prediction estimates, it also has estimates for the oil industy in the area. Make sure you've scolled to the right storm (it covers them all) & the oil estimates have a different link in the page than the land estimates. It's quite interactive(you can get it down to the major roads) once you get to the storm, was pretty right on with Katrina, they've posted their before & afters on that one.
Link
Does anyone know where we are going to see recon in there next? It should be interesting.
don't forget to put your predictions on my blog.. we are tracking results and hopefully this will help us get better at this..
Hooked - thanks for the link! I'm going back "home" and will wait until they say St. Bernard is open again until I return.
Current recon "plan of the day" shows a flight leaving at 16:15Z, which is 12:15 pm EDT I believe
Such great loop, Link
i bet winds will be up to 155mph in the next update what do you all think about it?
New update is out - winds at 140; pressure at 944.
944...ack


Hurricane Rita : Tracking map | 5-day forecast map | Historical map | Computer model map | Public advisory | Marine advisory | Discussion | Satellite map | Strike probability map | Wind map | Coordinates

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 16

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 21, 2005
...Rita remains an extremely dangerous hurricane...winds now estimated 140 mph winds...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast later today or this evening.

Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Rita.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 24.3 north...longitude 85.9 west or about 260 miles... west of Key West Florida and about 755 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Rita is a extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and could reach category five intensity in the central Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The wind field associated with Rita is forecast to expand during the next day or two.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb...27.88 inches.

Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.3 N... 85.9 W. Movement toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 944 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Avila
Hmmm - and a definite due west, if not slightly south of due west track...
Coastal Water Temperatures
Place Temperature
Port Isabel, TX 86 F / 30.0 C
Corpus Christi, TX 87 F / 30.6 C
Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX 84 F / 29.4 C
Galveston Pier 21, TX 86 F / 30.0 C
Sabine Pass North, TX 86 F / 30.0 C
Rockport, TX 87 F / 31.1 C
Grand Isle, LA 86 F / 30.0 C
Eagle Point, TX 87 F / 30.6 C
Interesting - if I'm reading the discussion correctly, T-numbers indicate Rita may be a solid Cat 5, but with no recon - they have no way to confirm. Am I getting that right?
EYE is SHRINKING. She will go through 1 concentric cycle then DOUGHNUT mmmmmmmmmmm!! Doughnut.
readings from the bouys in the west central and north west gulf are showing temps at 85-86 degrees
MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA. (42001) Bouy:

Dominant Wave Height (DWH) 9.51 ft / 2.90 m
Wind Wave Height (WWH) 9.84 ft / 3.00 m
Raindancer, pop. between Corpus and Houston is pretty dense (Texas dense, not Eastern-seabord dense). Also have to consider lots of bays leading inland a-ways and the fact it's all a big, flat coastal plain. Nothing to stop the wind for a number of miles.

My greatest concern is that all the news and talk on national stations is of Houston and Galveston. But it still seems possible to see a Corpus or south landfall. Is the confidence of landfall north of there that high?
i want to assure all the people in the new orleans area and the miss gulf coasts they have nothing to worry about from RITA...this is the texas coast problem and all we can do is pray for them and hope the listen to there officials to evacuate because this storm is taking no prisoners..IT IS A KILLER!!!!!!!!!!
AustinGal - Thanks for the insight. Yeah - it seems there's a lot of talk about Galveston, but the track has been shifting closer to Corpus - and I've heard almost nothing about them. I think if I was in Corpus, I'd be planning a weekend trip to San Anton or elsewhere.
Tracking info for Hurricane Rita
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 09/18/05 22.0N 69.7W 30 1009 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/18/05 21.7N 71.2W 30 1008 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/18/05 22.0N 72.2W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/18/05 22.2N 72.7W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/19/05 22.9N 73.3W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/19/05 22.7N 74.3W 60 998 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/19/05 23.0N 75.2W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/19/05 23.3N 76.5W 70 995 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/20/05 23.3N 77.8W 70 990 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/20/05 23.7N 79.5W 70 988 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/20/05 23.8N 81.0W 85 982 Category 1 Hurricane
18 GMT 09/20/05 23.9N 81.7W 100 978 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/20/05 24.0N 82.2W 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/21/05 24.1N 83.2W 110 965 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/21/05 24.3N 84.6W 120 956 Category 3 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/21/05 24.3N 85.9W 140 944 Category 4 Hurricane

CrazyC83. Hate to back your forecast, but what you predict seems to be well within the realm of possibilities. A storm of such strength would mean utter devastation 100 miles inland. Why is everyone trying to compare Rita to Katrina. Katrina actually stumbled and was falling before it arrived, and was not even a category four for most of the landfall area, and certainly not inthe New Orleans area. It was the duration of the winds and moisture which brought most of the destruction with that storm. Unless this monster tears itself apart the potential devastation could be much worse than Katrina.
No Austin a Corpus Christi landfall is also possible, the cone encompasses the entire coast of Texas..No one on the Texas coast is out of the woods..
Stormtop....looking at the water temps I'm thinking she will make landfall as a strong 4 or weak 5...although there really is nothing weak about a 5
raindancer the storm will hit between corpus and galvseton...im leaning more towards the north the galveston area...corpus will get something rita continues to expand out and get a larger wind field....
not much left to do in the next couple days but to watch, think and pray, huh?
32. Solo
Now that Rita is fully in the Gulf, this link should be of interest to all in the affected area - as well as to those who wish to keep watch.

http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm

BV
Raindancer,

Corpus was just on the news (I'm in Galveston). They are starting voluntry evacs and are trying to decide on mantory ones.
Current forecast track...Link
Good Morning, Senorita Rita's path also includes Mexico.
how is that area for evac routes? will the process be fairly smooth, or is it going to be a cluster nightmare?
weatherdude im looking at her landfall as a strong cat 4 145mph winds with gusts to 175 as she nears galveston...i dont think she will hit land as a cat 5...water temps in the nw gulf are a little cooler then where she is now...i expect her to wind down to a cat 4 status as she hits near galveston on friday...
think he's immune cause he's pres?

lol
thanks stormtop....right now SST is the only thing that keeps her from being a 5 at landfall. What do think the possibility is of the surge going over the Galveston sea wall?
LOL now now stormtop. Your suppose to whisper those kind of things where only you can hear. Karma is a nasty b!tch sometimes. Not that any of the rest of us didn't think something like that or anything. ( wink wink, nudge nudge)
i just want get real to know he can come back to la today he has no fear from RITA in the new orleans are surrounding areas.....this is a texas storm and has always been one since i seen the huge strong high guiding it..i would not be surprised if rita picked up in forward speed to 18mph later in the next advisory...texas the hurricane watch will be issued sometime today for your area so i would not hesitata and evacuate..remeber to clean out your ice box before you leave so you wont have to deal with cleaning it out when you get your power back..it stinks worse then a dead body and the smell is atrocious...so take everything out and you will be ok when you get back home..
Nice blog has now taken a turn to the sewer. After what we've seen out of Katrina, folks want to wish damage and destruction on anyone??? Perhaps they'd like only Republicans to feel the brunt of Rita? or only Democrats? In case no one's noticed, Mother Nature doesn't play political favotites.
Folks are looking a little too much at SST to determine storm intensity levels.. Individual storm intensification which must contribute to the intensification of the storm as a whole, is being fed by atmospheric heat. Here in Alabama, no less than 90 degrees each day in September thus far, and perhaps a local record of 97 antiquated Fahrenheit degrees predicted for today!! How about where you live??..
My grandfather still wants to ride it out; he said that he made it through Carla fine. Any idea how far inland the wind/rain damage from Rita might be?
Hey... I went through hurricane Claudette when it hit Victoria, which is a baby storm compared to this, but for Victoria it took months to get back to normal...Do you think Victoria, will get hit head on by this one?
83 yesterday was a record and were on our way to 87 today in wisconsin
wow weatherdude i would say at least 20 to 25 foot tidal surge as rita crosses the coast...i hope she doesnt hit at high tides..rita has the potential to top the levees though...
Stormtop, don't you think Rita could cause a major rain event for NOLA. And with an alraedy weakened levee system maybe now is not the time to say "no fear from Rita"
I'm thinking that the damage will be more widespread than Katrina. Houston is going to take a beating from her. I really feel for all of the evacuees from NOLA who are now in Houston.
rose take some rope tie him up and drag him out of the area..you are dealing with a real killer here and if anyone thinks they can survive this if they stay they are only fooling themselves..i been through it i know what to do how to protect myself...i would suggest everyone evacuate if you are told to do so...ROSE GET HIM OUT OF THERE..
Just read this on a local news station

One of the world's most well-known hurricane forecasters warned that Hurricane Rita is going to be a "mother of a storm" and could be one of the worst he has ever seen when it makes landfall.

"There is going to be hell to pay," said Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University. "This is trouble with a capital T. The only thing I've ever seen that really looks worst than this was Katrina."

Hurricane Rita strengthened into a Category 3 storm packing 120 mph winds early Wednesday after lashing the Florida Keys and sparking anxiety as it headed into the Gulf of Mexico.

Gray, who has studied tropical weather for more than 40 years, said the hurricane is following the same path as 18 or 20 of the most intense storms of the past century, according to a report.

He predicted months ago that this hurricane season would be active, and he predicts that we'll likely see one or two more major storms before this season ends.

Dr. Gray disagrees with other experts who said the power of these storms is related to global warming. He said there is simply no proof of that.


Dr. William Gray says if Hurricane Rita stays on its current path, it could do $100 billion in damage.

He said 1933 was a very active season, similar to this year's season. There were 21 named storms in 1933.

Gray said if the storm stays on its current path, it could do $100 billion in damage.

The latest projected path of Hurricane Rita shows the storm moving west toward Texas as a Category 4 storm.

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Six hurricanes have hit Florida in the last 13 months.


TOP

your pics in Katrina available somehow ... ?

Yeah, seriously...anyone along the Texas coast needs to GTFO NOW!
Franck,

They are saying 81 for the first day of fall in Upstate NY (yes its not all frozen wasteland up here, aleast not until aleast November). According to the local newpaper its been 6 degrees above noraml on average for Sept. And we had 18 90+ days over the summer (we usually have 4).
WEATHERDUDE I TOTALLY AGREE...i think the damage will go well over 100 miles inland...i agree this will be worse then katrina so everyone you dont want to be a statistic so evacuate PLEASE!!!!!!!!!
Why would anyone think getting knocked down by waves in a hurricane is fun. Watching the extreme sports from Key West yesterday.
NO SAYMO I DONT RITA WILL NOT CAUSE ANYTHING IN NEW ORLEANS...IM VERY CONFIDENT OF THAT...
I was pretty conservative before on mb and speeds (thinking it would be a 3) but now I am actually tending the other way due to the lack of shear and the length of passage Rita has through the gulf. Whether the amount of time spent over the gulf means either higher intensity or bigger size I am not sure, I do not have enough knowledge of historical data.

It's such a classic looking cyclone though, the goes images will be worth a desktop I think.

I actually thought she had hit the loop but it seems not yet. The next 24 hour period might be more interesting dynamically than the actual landfall.

Stormtop, OK, I know you are there yourself. Will ya'll do Mardi Gras 06?



STORMTOP ARE YOUR PHOTOS OF KATRINA AVAILABLE TO BE SEEN HERE
OR ON ANOTHER SITE
????
VOODOO I HAVE THEM ON A VIDEO...LEFTY WILL SEND THEM TO YOU AS SOON AS I GET THEM TO HIM..
It looks to me like the models are shifting back west again. If it follows that, Houston might be spared.

Link

GREAT

THANKS !!

I CAN'T WAIT.. MUST'VE BEEN AMAZING.. AND YOU DID IT.

COURAGE IS THE GREATEST GIFT.
QUESTION FOR THE EXPERTS:

Can heavy convection in the outer feeder bands detract from the power and speed of the center of the storm?

1. Cools the water.
2. Possible interference with the primary outflow pattern.

KS hurricane get the hell out of there while you can its stupid to think houston will be spared...you are playing russian roulette staying there i know i went what you guys are fixing to go through,...GET OUT!!!!!!!!!!
oriondarkwood- yes, atmospheric heating is approaching critical mass, and it is nothing but the exhaust being created by economic globalization, and unfortunately its engine sits in a city of your home state. Sorry, but true.
This is my projection of the storm. To me things look better this morning NHC has it projected now
to go into Palcious Saturday morning, However if it continues at 14 miles an hour it could be
in Portmansfield by 10 am on friday.If you wait till Thursday to leave you may change your mind.
and stay. NHC has it passing south of lake houston 140 miles thats on the fringe of 35 MPH
That puts us in tornado ally.


My projections

15 GMT 09/20/05 23.8N 81.0W 85 982 Category 1 Hurricane
18 GMT 09/20/05 23.9N 81.7W 100 978 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/20/05 24.0N 82.2W 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/21/05 24.1N 83.2W 110 965 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/21/05 24.3N 84.6W 120 956 Category 3 Hurricane Wednesday 4 AM
12 GMT 09/21/05 24.4N 85.3W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/21/05 24.3N 85.9w 140 944 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/21/05 24.7N 87.2W
03 GMT 09/22/05 24.9N 88.5W
09 GMT 09/22/05 25.1N 89.8W Thursday 4 AM
15 GMT 09/22/05 25.3N 91.1W
21 GMT 09/22/05 25.5N 92.4W
03 GMT 09/23/05 25.7N 93.7W
06 GMT 09/23/05 25.9N 94.3W
09 GMT 09/23/05 26.1N 94.9.0W Friday 4 AM Due south of Galveston
15 GMT 09/23/05 26.3N 96.2W
21 GMT 09/23/05 26.5N 97.5W inland 4 PM CDT Friday Port Mansfield TX
That is just north of Brownsville
I'm just saying that the models seem to be pointing more toward Corpus Christi now, than Houston. Do you think they'll shift back northeast?

ok....the national media needs to get off their new orelans horse for just a couple days and focus on this storm......everything in the world includign every storm, does not have to do with new orelans.....I don't mean to sound mean, but we have a dangerous storm out there and all most of them talk about are the chances of it hitting NO, and they almost make it seem that if it hits anywhere else, it is good...it is making me sick already
It seemed that Katrina could never get her eye down to a size where she could really wrap up. I guess that sounds stupid when you're talking about a 902mb storm. But Rita seems to have it all together. There's no talk of shear before landfall.
KS HURRICANE LISTEN TO ME............if the storm happens to hit corpus like you say houston and galveston are still going to on the worse side of the storm...DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY TO YOU...GET OUT!!!!!!!!!
what happened to the recon overnight....I went to bed since it never showed up...and I still see no ob's since yesterday evening..what is the deal??
electrical prob on the plane
university of wiscnsin estimates ut at 920mb abd 140kts and the nhc thinks that could be right. rita could already be a cat5. recon will arive in a little bit
wp they had electrical issues. thats why we have no clue how strong she really is
Hello all...

Could someone post a water vapor loop link please?

Thanks,

Katie =)
wow another plane problem....deja vu?? katrina had a issue with a recon plane as well.......920 mb would be huge already at this point
California- no real expert but it wouldn't seem that outer bands would contribute greatly to cooling SST. The upwelling and churning needed to draw cooler waters to the surface probably only exist where lowest pressures are, and the storm is most violent. As for number 2, can't contribute a hypothesis.
Hi Lefty!!

This one went through an even bigger overnight transformation than Kat did...
how much bigger (size wise) will rita get
yeah chicago.
man, had some wicked storms here today, and Rita is so far away now..but we needed the rain...my grass is happy. Looks like the tropics don't want any other storm than Rita right now...I just cannot believe we have 2 powerful hurricanes hit/hitting the gulf states this year. Maybe mother nature will be done for the rest of the seaseon.
water vapor

Link
Hello, Dr. Jeff Masters'

I just wanted to take the time to tell you I and as many of us are happy to have someone with the answers to so many questions. And taking the time to listen.

Thanks, again
upinsmoke
LEFTY thats the pressure i said yesteday 920mb RITA would hit the texas coast with friday...there will be heavy destruction well over 100 miles inland....people you have to get out before you are added to the statistic list...
Have we passed the storm total for 95 yet?

Also I will be suprised if this is Not a Category 5 hurricane when Recon get in there.
Electrical problems....... Insert conspiracy theory here ;)
Stormtop.......predictions for the effects in Lake Charles if Rita stays on her current track?
every city in the gulf, and the eastern US for that matter, needs a grotto!!!!!!!!!!!!! AND NOW!
Considering recon planes, look at what is happening. Number of storms, wear and tear on equipment, destruction of base areas, and the sheer danger of descending into these monsters presently forming in the tropics. Recon system may be breaking down a bit.
Thanks WPB
FRANCK:

The cooling isn't caused just by upwelling - it's also the evaporative cooling of the surface as the convection sucks up the heat. And I'm referring to a fat band with a lot of convection.

Oh - I guess you are the only expert here, eh? heheheheh

Very much so Stormy
For California, not sure in the outer bands but in the centre latent heat of condensation is one of the main driving forces of course.

The actual cooler rainfall into the sea will not impinge the progress of the centre though, whether the latent heat let off in the outskirts of the cyclone effects the cores abilty to be driven by latent heat of condensation that is a question for someone who knows more tham me on this blog.
Tilda, Look at the damage map on this link. Your grandfather is pretty much right in the middle of the "widespread" or "severe" damage window. In addition, that area DOES flood easily. He needs to listen to you and get out of there. I live 40 miles north of him, and I will probably leave tonight or tomorrow morning.
Link
iamroot if RITA hits the galveston area lake charles it will be bad they being on the east side of the storm..they will have to evacuate...i see winds over 100 mph and 10 inches of rain if it hits galveston not to mention tonadoes...
Recon is in
496
URNT12 KNHC 211600Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1517Z
B. 24 DEG 11 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2522 M
D. 65 KT
E. 070 DEG 27 NM
F. 180 DEG 137 KT
G. 075 DEG 09 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX18A RITA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT E QUAD 1516Z



i was just over on hooked's place for our predictions- suprised to see that most picks are outside of the models. not suprised mine was, it was pretty far north but i count 5 of 6 north and east of mine. frankly i hope i'm way off and would be delighted in a land fall in the mex. desert somewhere.
ZAKELWE:

Yeah, I guess the question there is, can the convection of a huge outer band change the SST at all? That's what I don't know.

Also, can the upper outflow from an intense outer band interfere with the outflow from the storm center?

BENBURCH WELL SAID!!!!!!!!!!
Deja Vu, everyone agree? Damage along the entire gulf coast this hurricane season...need to put those oil rigs somewhere else...poss off the KSC coast with our bubble to protect them? lol....no really, a grotto...I wanna grotto for my city.
Stormtop...Do you see the ridge moving east yet?
its not the goverments job to evacaute you anyways
"i was just over on hooked's place for our predictions- suprised to see that most picks are outside of the models. not suprised mine was, it was pretty far north but i count 5 of 6 north and east of mine. frankly i hope i'm way off and would be delighted in a land fall in the mex. desert somewhere."

Mine was far too south so if you use both (like the NHC ) do, we probably will hit it right on the nose :D

I'm rewriting history already, so I can say " I told you so" when everybody has forgotten.

Lefty was right when he said the tracts were converging, it is a very nice tightly spread group now.

any thoughts on whether we should evac in Katy if anyone knows where this is.. 25 miles west of houston?
wow cane. she is stronger than they estimated
NO I DONT IAMROOT IT IS STILL IN PLACE..IT SHOULDNT MOVE UNTIL SHE PASSES 92.0 WEST...
what was lefty and tops landfall predictions?
I would say about 12 hours ago Rita just about touched Katrinas wake and now is passing about 50-60 miles south of it, and Katrina started her sharp turn about here so Rita will be leaving that influence.
Anybody that depends on any government to rescue you is an idiot. Doesn't matter who is President.

Why do people expect to be coddled and taken care of?

Don't they possess the power of thinking and making their own decisions?

No one has responsibility for their own actions.
Don't blame the government if you can't think for yourself.
franck,

I know look at the Marine buoys for the gulf and see how many are out of order or not reporting. Luckily we have sats but they is just too much data that buoys, ships and planes provide.

my prediction was corpus to galveston...im leaning more towards galveston now...this will be devastating for the galveston area..
116. Solo
Oh My God - are you "benburch" or 'John Birch'? If you seriously believe the "Bush Government" had any control over the initial evacuation process in the city of NO and the MS/AL coast, then you've been seriously misled. Those decisions were (AND ARE...AND CONTINUE TO BE) made at the local/state level. Please get your facts straight.

Oddly - I do agree that if anyone lives anywhere within the 'cone' of probability for a strike, then they need to take all necessary steps to preserve life and property...to include evacuation if warranted.
Whoa - 934mb?! Impressive!
lefty was at galveston, i don't see stormtops
Quick note about fish storms,

remenber just because they don't hit land doesn't mean shipping routes, cruise lines, air routes don't get affected.
Did I just hear the folks at TWC right???? A 10 mb drop (944 to 934) in the last hour???

I don't have clairvoyance, but it sure is starting to look like whoever is unfortunate enough to be in ol' Rita's path is going to get devastated.
thanks top...
FL - The 944 was an estimate - as they had no recon at the time. The 934 is a confirmed recon number.
heres my continuation of tracking recon for you guys


9-20-05
4:30pm-973mb 23.85n 81.95w
5:56pm-970mb 23.92n 82.18w
6:24pm-969mb 23.93n 82.35w
8:09pm-967mb 24.00n 82.68w
10:04pm-965mb 24.03n 83.07w

9-21-05
11:17am-934mb 24.18n 85.70w


31mb drop in 12 hrs 40mb drop in 16hrs

Flight level winds at just under 160 mph...
California

"Yeah, I guess the question there is, can the convection of a huge outer band change the SST at all? That's what I don't know. Also, can the upper outflow from an intense outer band interfere with the outflow from the storm center?"

The second question is too tough for me to answer I'm afraid, you'd think logically yes, but how much I have no idea. Very very slightly ? There's probably some guy who looks like Professor Honeydew or Beaker who has spent his life answering this question ..where he is now ?

In regards to your first question I'd say no because even if it changed the SST in the upper 10cm of the ocean the hurricane energy source I think is to well over 100m down and the change in SST would only be from the very top. This top layer is very subjective to winds as well, rather than currents, and so this cold top layer would be driven which way in regards to the centre, inwards or outwards ? So I think no.

That's my best guestemate anyhow.
Flex due to there being no recons this morning, they were just guessing the pressure, so they were off.
127. BigM
wombats, this is big m from richmond...my family and i area heading out tonight up to ft. worth area...from the looks of things w. fort bend county (including katy) is no mans land: a hit in matagorda will still catch us w/high winds, and a hit on galveston is the same thing. ive stayed through my share of storms, but im not rolling the dice on this one (not w/wife and kids). take care of yourself
scroll up fred you will see it...........i havent changed since monday........
stormtop, you still think its gonna get far enough north to reach galveston? also, what do you think the weather will be like on saturday in baton rouge?
Yep! Not their job, especially when they are total failures like this bunch of fascists. Though, if people do self-evacuate, the fascists will claim credit for the "success".

Now, on weather topics, I am wondering if the general warming trend will change the mixing between the tropical and subtropical zones and thus require that a lot of presently-accurate models get modified?
that was the first penetration. the winds are usually higher in the next penetration. usually. we will see
I've been gone over a hour, a few houses, down the road, look like they'll be dealin with flooding in a few hours if this keeps up. It's training on east central fl ( melbourne). Lightnings picked up, I'm shuttin down for a while:(
Franck,

I know I work (aleast until Halloween) for one of the companies in question (big hint google which company has its HQ in the burb I live in)
heres my continuation of tracking recon for you guys


9-20-05
4:30pm-973mb 23.85n 81.95w
5:56pm-970mb 23.92n 82.18w
6:24pm-969mb 23.93n 82.35w
8:09pm-967mb 24.00n 82.68w
10:04pm-965mb 24.03n 83.07w

9-21-05
11:17am-934mb 24.18n 85.70w


31mb drop in 12 hrs 40mb drop in 16hrs


Anyone got any clue if upstate NY will get anything from Rita?
136. wpb05
well, that quad would translate to about 140 mph winds...although i too think we will see higher in the next pass
could be rainy in batron rouge on saturday with gusty winds...im hoping it stays on the west rack but as soon as it clears 92 west im expecting that turn to take place...i wish i had better news for you guys...thats why i say LEAVE NOW THIS IS A KILLER STORM..IT IS WORSE THEN KATRINA ITS GROWING AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING...
what site you lookin at lefty to get those updates as the plane is flying
September 21, 2005 Today's Outlook: The Moon is quite powerful in Taurus, where she benefits from the common sense and stability offered by the Bull. But today isn't so quiet, for as the Taurus Moon conjuncts aggressive Mars, we could get hot under the collar as feelings are energized. Both the nurturing Moon and warrior Mars together form an irritating aspect with Jupiter, the planet of big ideas. This complicates emotions, making it difficult to know what is enough or too much. Also, stern Saturn quincunxes eccentric Uranus, adding another layer of uncertainty to the decisions we must make. for those who need to evacuate and can't decide why, its cause of the planets out there...listen to the bloggers, not the planets...EVACUATE!!!

stevego

Link
Hey Ben, why don't you take your 10 IQ and go back into your hole... and take the rest of the ultra left wing trash with you.
Cat 5 are usually about 925mb or lower right?
stev i use the nhc site and this site. i plot all reon and decided that with htis storm i would post every plot i have for a period of time. no recon last night so this is my first plot for today. do not want to plot the estimations as u see why. they were off by 10 mbs
ZAKELWE:

That makes sense. In other words, with a large hurricane the actual SST's are not as important as the heat content 50 to 100 feet below the surface - so hot SST's may get a TD or TS spinning, but lower depth heat content is the key to how powerful a big storm gets, and not SST's?

SaCa - Typically less than 920 - tho the determining factor is of course the wind speed.
this sucks to leave or not to leave.. that is the question???
not so. its just how well a storm can pick its winds up and mic them down. now the lwoer the pressure the eassier but this storm is intense and the pressure drops show it. the pressure will continue todrop in my opinion for anither 12-18 hrs in a 2 mb an hour or so pace like we have seen. no evedinve of a eye wall cycle yet so it could be as much as 24 hrs away
GOV. perry is calling for voluntary evac of the bmt pa area
abc live news
This could be bad.

Link
SaCaCh, 934 mb would support CAT 5 winds, but Blobby is getting bigger first. Cat 5 will come later today or tomorrow.
Hey lefty/stormtop do you remember the "landing strip lights" (feeder band) from Katrina that pointed directly to Louisiana while she was in the gulf. I am seeing the same thing with Rita. I realize that it is just a feeder band but it is eerily close to the NHC track.Vapor I would give you a better link but I have figured out that whenever I put a link on here the site seems to overload. So I save my best sites for me.
153. wpb05
ok...there are different flight numbers going on here...the vortex is different than the first ob that was JJUST posted.....
wow recon thanks


hey did the wu go down for u guys too. they need betetr servers lol
BTW did anyone see the estimated DVORK pressure.

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 SEP 2005 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 24:16:07 N Lon : 85:55:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 920.1mb/140.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22.2km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8

Eye Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.0C

Scene Type : CLEAR EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC

accuweather is posting 175mph flight level winds
wp i think they have a couple planes out there
Hi all. hopes this posts instead of knocking me off again!
The latest dropsonde appears to give a pressure of 928 mb with some wind, so the lowest pressure is lower.
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
161. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
163. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
165. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
167. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
170. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
173. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
176. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
179. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
182. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
185. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
189. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
194. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
200. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
206. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
deja vu....deja vu....
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
214. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
deja vu....deja vu....
man the site is messing up big time
our local weather folks saying there is a pool of cooler waters off the TX coast that would inhibit or drop off the upper scale factor of Cat5 to 4 or 3. Anyone else hear about this?
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
224. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
deja vu....deja vu....
man the site is messing up big time
our local weather folks saying there is a pool of cooler waters off the TX coast that would inhibit or drop off the upper scale factor of Cat5 to 4 or 3. Anyone else hear about this?
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
234. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
deja vu....deja vu....
man the site is messing up big time
our local weather folks saying there is a pool of cooler waters off the TX coast that would inhibit or drop off the upper scale factor of Cat5 to 4 or 3. Anyone else hear about this?
So far since 7:00am we have had over 4 inches of rain complements of Rita. I live near Cocoa Beach
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
245. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
deja vu....deja vu....
man the site is messing up big time
our local weather folks saying there is a pool of cooler waters off the TX coast that would inhibit or drop off the upper scale factor of Cat5 to 4 or 3. Anyone else hear about this?
So far since 7:00am we have had over 4 inches of rain complements of Rita. I live near Cocoa Beach
hats goin on it the site
256. wpb05
echo........echo.......echo......
**hiccough**
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
259. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
deja vu....deja vu....
man the site is messing up big time
our local weather folks saying there is a pool of cooler waters off the TX coast that would inhibit or drop off the upper scale factor of Cat5 to 4 or 3. Anyone else hear about this?
So far since 7:00am we have had over 4 inches of rain complements of Rita. I live near Cocoa Beach
hats goin on it the site
270. wpb05
echo........echo.......echo......
**hiccough**
You guys are right. It's not the government's role to protect us. The government's role is exactly the opposite: to take troops and money away from where they could help and protect us, and put them to blowing up shyte halfway around the world. So now that's settled.

Enough about politics -- is it just me or is she looking like a cat 5 by tonight?
Anybody got a side by side satellite comparison for the 4 Gulf storms this year? Dennis, Emily, Katrina, & Rita?

It would be nice to include top winds & minimum pressure.
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
275. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
deja vu....deja vu....
man the site is messing up big time
our local weather folks saying there is a pool of cooler waters off the TX coast that would inhibit or drop off the upper scale factor of Cat5 to 4 or 3. Anyone else hear about this?
So far since 7:00am we have had over 4 inches of rain complements of Rita. I live near Cocoa Beach
hats goin on it the site
286. wpb05
echo........echo.......echo......
**hiccough**
You guys are right. It's not the government's role to protect us. The government's role is exactly the opposite: to take troops and money away from where they could help and protect us, and put them to blowing up shyte halfway around the world. So now that's settled.

Enough about politics -- is it just me or is she looking like a cat 5 by tonight?
Anybody got a side by side satellite comparison for the 4 Gulf storms this year? Dennis, Emily, Katrina, & Rita?

It would be nice to include top winds & minimum pressure.
lefty, too much traffic. people discovered WU!
what the hurricanes do out over water isn't as important as what the impact will be at landfall. Opal became a monster in the Gulf, I called friends all over the Panhandle to tell them it was cat4, they'd gone to bed at cat2, and then it dropped back to cat 2.
Plan for the worst and hope for the best. It's all we can do when facing down Mother Nature.
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but here are the top storms in the Atlantic basin...

Gilbert (1988) - 888
Great Labor Day Storm (1935) - 892
Allen (1980) - 899
Katrina (3 weeks ago) - 902
Camille (1969) - 905
Mitch (1998) - 905
Ivan (2004) - 910

Correct?
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
293. wpb05
ok lefty...that makes sense........so we are probably talking 18-20 hrs before the turn begins I am guessing??
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
You guys are right. It's not the government's role to protect us. The government's role is exactly the opposite: to take troops and money away from where they could help and protect us, and put them to blowing up shyte halfway around the world. So now that's settled.

Enough about politics -- is it just me or is she looking like a cat 5 by tonight?
Anybody got a side by side satellite comparison for the 4 Gulf storms this year? Dennis, Emily, Katrina, & Rita?

It would be nice to include top winds & minimum pressure.
lefty, too much traffic. people discovered WU!
what the hurricanes do out over water isn't as important as what the impact will be at landfall. Opal became a monster in the Gulf, I called friends all over the Panhandle to tell them it was cat4, they'd gone to bed at cat2, and then it dropped back to cat 2.
Plan for the worst and hope for the best. It's all we can do when facing down Mother Nature.
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but here are the top storms in the Atlantic basin...

Gilbert (1988) - 888
Great Labor Day Storm (1935) - 892
Allen (1980) - 899
Katrina (3 weeks ago) - 902
Camille (1969) - 905
Mitch (1998) - 905
Ivan (2004) - 910

Correct?
Okaay.... looks like the site is a little haywire. Probably more traffic than expected.

Is it just me, or does Rita look like she's quickly becoming a doughnut on the most recent VIS shots?

Link

Godpeed to those in this monster's path...
mandatory evacuation Aransas county and Port ARansas effect. today at 12noon
Okaay.... looks like the site is a little haywire. Probably more traffic than expected.

Is it just me, or does Rita look like she's quickly becoming a doughnut on the most recent VIS shots?

Link

Godspeed to those in this monster's path...
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
928 just about gets her in the top 5 most intense.

There have been tons of storms with a pressure below 930 mb over the open water of the gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic.
we got lucky this time, lost power only 1.5 hrs.
Keys still messy... That Grotto still working.
Heard a story that some years back a devout Catholic lady flew over downtown Miami throwing handfuls of blessed Holy medals over the city so that there would be divine intercession on the city's behalf with hurricanes. Wish I could remember the details...
Spent y'day with major migraine. Am beginning to think there is a correlation between very low barometric pressure and some serious health issues. Had a friend once tell me a couple of centuries past I'd have been burned at the stake as a weather witch... go figure...
wombats, take a vacation, heck if she doesn't hit your area, at least u were safe instead of sorry...don't let those planets guide your decision to leave, just look at the aftermath of Katrina and know that this baby could be worse....
Unbelievable, she wasn't supposed to be a cat 4 by this time today! WOW!

It has been pouring rin here in Jacksonville all morning. Ths is just an amazing storm. I can't believe this season.

I suggest that you gas up your cars/suv's/lawnmowers etc. for we may have another nationwide gas price spike.
our local weather folks saying there is a pool of cooler waters off the TX coast that would inhibit or drop off the upper scale factor of Cat5 to 4 or 3. Anyone else hear about this?
So far since 7:00am we have had over 4 inches of rain complements of Rita. I live near Cocoa Beach
You guys are right. It's not the government's role to protect us. The government's role is exactly the opposite: to take troops and money away from where they could help and protect us, and put them to blowing up shyte halfway around the world. So now that's settled.

Enough about politics -- is it just me or is she looking like a cat 5 by tonight?
SaCaCh, if I am not mistaken, 934 mb would make Rita the number 10 all time most intense hurricane. She might already be cat 5
wunder she is all messed up
ah, stuck in repeat...deja vu.
strongest I have found. Katrina would now be on this list. Some of these things just scare me to think if they hit land. Tip was also HUUUUUUUGE about the size of half the US. it show wind then pressure.

Strong Hurricanes/Typhoons
Name Basin Year Wind MPH Pressure MB
Typhoon Tip* Pacific 1979 190 870
Typhoon Zeb Pacific 1998 ??? <872
Typhoon Gay Pacific 1992 185 872
Typhoon Keith Pacific 1997 190 872
Typhoon Joan Pacific 1997 ??? 872
Typhoon Ivan Pacific 1997 ??? 872
Typhoon Yuri Pacific 1991 175 885
Hurricane Gilbert Atlantic 1988 185 888
Typhoon Nancy3 Pacific 1961 213 888
Unnamed1 Atlantic 1935 160 8922
Hurricane Allen Atlantic 1980 190 899
Hurricane Linda Pacific 1997 185 900
Hurricane Camille Atlantic 1969 190 905
Hurricane Mitch Atlantic 1998 180 906
good research saca, looks like the site has fixed itself now...no longer in hell, but still having deja vu! :-)
Some sources are saying that Rita's satellite presentation is that of a category 5. NOAA jet is apparently on its way to check her out as we speak.

If this thing went from a category 3 to 5 this fast, then all intensity forecasts have gone out the window.
are we there yet(NO) are we there yet(NO)are we there yet(NO)
this is like bad simpson's episode
348. wpb05
Will:

the recon planes have been out there for a little while now...hence the vortex last hour
her eye as stadiumed out. look at it on this good visib sat imagery. just clikc on the storm and enjoy


Link
Guys meaninggless posts will further lag her down, so for now let's keep our posts on track.

I wsa looking at the latest GFS for Philippe...does it appear possible that he may do a loop in the future? Who knows what may happen.
SaCaCh,

Very silm chance of anything close to the size of Tip around here too much land mass in the warm parts of the ocean and not enough warm in the Atlantic to support a storm that size (but then again remenber I am a novice)
Latest dropsonde shows a pressure of at 922 mb.

XXAA 7117/ 99242 70859 08145 99922 26614 21022 00/// ///// 92///
///// 85721 25044 88999 77999
31313 09608 81702
61616 AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 03
62626 EYE SPL 2420N08592W 1705 MBL WND 21520 AEV 20507 DLM WND 21
518 922787 WL150 21022 080 =
willjax-we got an ugly afternoon coming up from the south
URNT12 KNHC 211728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:02:40Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 142 kt
G. 036 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 12 C/ 2447 m
J. 26 C/ 2436 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. STADIUM
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NE QUAD 16:58:40 Z
357. BigM
hey, anyone want to buy a lovely 2 year-old, two-story house in richmond, tx?
WillJax

Phillipe is not doing a loop. It looks like GFS is seeing a decent wave coming off the African coast and being something to keep an eye on early next week.
here eye has stadiumed out and is visbile on satelite imagery and is really impressive. we have just seen a 9 mb drop in 2 hrs. thats crazy heres the latest plots


9-20-05
4:30pm-973mb 23.85n 81.95w
5:56pm-970mb 23.92n 82.18w
6:24pm-969mb 23.93n 82.35w
8:09pm-967mb 24.00n 82.68w
10:04pm-965mb 24.03n 83.07w

9-21-05
11:17am-934mb 24.18n 85.70w
1:02pm-923mb 24.20n 85.93w


40mb drop in 12 hrs almost 50 mb in 16 hrs. this is crazy
Yeah but lefty the eye is not big enough to support these winds is it. Won't they cut through soon. Then a new BIG clear eye will form.
aquak9, willjax we'ew getting the rain here in Lake Butler right now too. Overall, I say I can't complain
Yah aqua it's defintely a stormy day, and looking at the satellite it looks like there's plenty more to go. It's so dark at my house right now that it seems like nightfall. Just passed through an intense downpour, went very calm for a minute, and now it's gettin very windy and picking up in intensity once more.

Where in Jax are you again?
363. wpb05
wow..stadiumed out....this thing is just amazing
Isn't that scary Lefty? That's kinda what I was asking earlier. This thing was a disorganized TD with no eye to speak of just over 24 hours ago. Now, we have this??
no recon. i have no clue where u heard that. her eye is tight and healthy hence the stadium and no signs of a eye wall cycle any time soon, at least not for 12 hrs and she will continue to explode for 12-18 hrs. she could get down close to 900 mbs in the next 12 hrs
here guys. click the link, clikc the storm and look at that eye


Link
367. Peff
Rita may have already claimed her first life. A navy jet went down in Jacksonville today during one of the many storms we've been having. Don't know yet if it's weather related, but it wouldn't surprise me.
chicago yes its really freaking scary yet awsome at the same time. but more scary
Info on Tip, look at the size comparison...lol


Link
370. Remek
I was going to ask you Lefty if you think she'll drop below 900 before she gets past the loop.
Katrina death toll tops 1000

The death toll so far:

AL 2
FL 14
GA 2
KY 1
LA 799
MS 219
OH 2
TN 1

Total 1,040

YIKES!
As far as Philippe's loop goes, I was just speculating off of what I saw on Wunderground's model page. Looks like erratic movement is posible in near future. It IS the GFS predicting that, not the LBAR or something.

Man it is crazily dark right now. I may lose power soon if a good gust comes through. I live in an area with a lot of trees and above ground power lines running through them.
373. Solo
Was just looking at the track predictor sites, and of the 11 (I believe) total, 5 of them are calling for landfall between Corpus and Galveston. Those were CONU, GFDI, OFCI, LBAR, and BAMD. In addition, the NGPI was slightly south of Corpus and the CLP5 was just north of Galveston.

Realizing that landfall is still days away and that predictions can change, STILL this looks like a pretty big hit on another refinery area we can ill afford. What we ought to be predicting is how badly we'll be gouged at the pump in the coming weeks...
103rd/blanding area, will...heading out to paxon area now to get kid from school..yes VERY low ugly heavy gray scuddy-looking clouds....
her windsare only asbout 147,ph at the surfacebut in the nxt hour or by tim the recon passes again we willhave a cat 5. the nds ned to catch up to the pressure
Ok, you might just be right Lfty. vapor I hate to give up my good links though.
peff I posted on alec's blog a link to the downed jet-only a mile? maybe from me, i heard it go down during a bad squall here, thought it was a transformer blowing...dang....
remif this ratof intensification cntinues, ad i mean 2 mbs an hour, like we saw all yestrday nd today yes he will bottm out near 890-900 range. but i amnot sure if herpressure will get down there but i kno er ns whn they ctahc up will be in the 160-180 ran
And is it me, 53rd, or does she appear to be gettin bigger...
MAX FL WIND 142 KT = 163.3 MPH when multiplied by 0.90 should be 146.9 MPH ground level winds.

Please confirm if I did this right.
Lefty, I am trying to find a season that had two cat 5 storms and not finding one, do you know of a season that had 2 cat 5 storms?
382. wpb05
lefty...a question.........with how deep this storm is becoming, isn't it possibly getting to the point where it will control its own steering from now on.....instead of the steering currentsnecessarily controlling it?? I could be worng
recon i have most if ur links anyway :-)


my last post was messed up

what i was saying is she could bottom out around 890-900mb but regradless in the next 6-12 hrs as her winds ctahc up they will be 160-180 in no time.
LEFTY, I'd Love To Hear You Thoughts on This Post!! I Don't Usually Shout out To You but We'd Need you to Address HIM! This guy was around in July (during emily) The Ultimate Gloom & Doomer, & NOT With The NHC!

{{{Posted By: NHC2005 at 1:35 PM EDT on September 21, 2005
Of another important note is that Rita is now larger than Katrina, I would say significantly larger in terms of hurricane force winds. The upper air conditions are favorable in such that Rita should continue to strengthen and expand.

Woh Boy! I cannot confirm yet since the aircraft have not been in today, but my thinking is this is already stronger than Katrina (+175 mph), although NHC will probably upgrade to 165 at 5pm.}}}
Peff, Alec I didn't know y'all live in JAX. We are practically neighbors!
wp not so. her steering situation is to go to any weakness and thats what she will do. remebr that ridge is massive and the minute it errodes and builds east she will snap northw into it, just like katrina did. now if the ridge was weaker than yes she would plow right thru it but this is the strongest ridge we have seen this year so that will not happen


yes the winds are 147 at the surface by my calculations
can a strong low pressure move a high pressure ?
fl, i belive the winds should be that fast as how low the pressure is but as of yet recon has yet to find those winds. but they will, and soon. she just droped 9-10 mbs in 2 hrs. thats nuts and the winds only went up 7mph so you do the math. she will jump another 20 mph on her current pressure drop alone
389. Peff
Man...she's purty...in a frightening way....

High Res Image of Rita

Not sure how old this is....

Yes, StSimon....neighbor!
Thanks lefty. Ya, I should have rounded up.
Lefty, you are the star of the show, lol... Must be hard to keep up!

You have such great thoughts though =)
Yeah but now everyone on here has it.
bouy no.
ok guys i need a shower. just woke up couple hours ago and feeling icky lol. be back in 15 mins or so
Yes, here is the story about the plane crash, an S3 Viking.

Those guys are professionals too, love seeing them fly over my house every day. They went down in Westside regional park, which is literally across the street from the runway. Definitely weather related if you ask me.
They may have been caught in a downburst while on approach. When you're that low there's not much you can do.

Man... I wish they hadn't been flying in this stuff.
New updates from Masters and I think Gregory, too...
Geez. Look at all the activity in 1887

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1887.asp


and then compare to 1890...

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1890.asp

What a difference 3 years makes...
I live in Austin, Tx and I have regularly followed all of the storms of this season, to see one headed straight for me though is exciting and scary, I feel that the very rapid rate of intensification shown over the past 24 hrs (going from TS to Cat 4 in less than 24 hrs is very impressive) I do not feel now that 1 degree or so of heat in the Gulf of Mexico is going to hinder this storm that much, I fully expect it sustain Cat 5 status (albeit a low cat 5) but as was mentioned before that doesnt matter much, watching the Weather Channel last night Jim Cantore said his worst case scenario is a Cat 4 storm with storm surge 26ft high wiping out 600,000 homes in Houston

2.15 Update on NHC Minimum Pressure 920 -> 150mph winds

..................HELLO ALL...........
I'm trying to get a location where all of our blogers live want to then make a directory that I will post on my blog
just looking for city (and maybe location in that city if it is large) and state..no other info needed or wanted..Thanks to all who will participate in this endevor..
tks...please make post on the first thread of my blog.
would like to include all that live outside of the states
also..will be interesting to see how wide spread our blogers are in the world..

please, if you can give the gift of life (blood),please contact your local Red Cross and make an appointment..the pint of blood you give my save 3 lives..and blood is really needed in the gulf coast..they lost their supply
of blood because of Katrina..and donors due to displacement..
With Rita now in the gulf heading west, blood will be needed even more...PLEASE DONATE ! !
to Thermo....
please, if you have some scientific basis
for your conclusions about Houston,
air them.
otherwise, please refrain from the worst
sort of conjecture.
ie
I was in an office yesterday afternoon, a couple
had just heard mentioned on tv that ONE of the models
projected a track into NO. Never mind that they just
caught the end of the conversation. Point is,
information that is pulled out of the sky is about as bad as
information that is half baked.
UNLESS YOU CAN SUBSTANTIATE YOUR STATEMENT-
PLEASE DONT PLAY THE SENSATION NEWS CARD.
TOO MANY DO THAT ALREADY.
and THE STAKES ARE WAY TOO HIGH.
BY THE WAY, I AM not EITHER A PROFESSIONAL OR AMATEUR
WEATHERCASTER, JUST ONE WHO PUTS A LOT OF STOCK IN
BOTH WU AND NHC AND WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY,.
THANK YOU FOR NOT CRAPPING UP THEIR SITE.

hoochbear
The main question at the moment, for anyone near the path, is not the thermally driven intensity but the directional forces governed by that big ridge to the north which either will move or will not move soon and so govern the path.The general consensus is that it will move north but when ?

On the other hand, for interested parties not in line with the storm, the question is intensity forcasts.Historically the HRC has been spot on with its intensity forecasts in the short term , but have understated the intensity in the long term.

Given this I would say the locatation of landfall is pretty accurate but the intensity is really still up in the air.

Pardon the pun.

oops sorry coorections

for the general consensus is that it will move north

read

for the general consensus is that it will move east

and

Historically the HRC has been spot on with its intensity forecasts in the short term , but have understated the intensity in the long term.


read

Historically FOR RITA the HRC has been spot on with its intensity forecasts in the short term , but have understated the intensity in the long term

that will teach me to try and put a 3 year old to bed whilst doing an additi0on and looking at sat photos !