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Rina continues to weaken; nearing landfall in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

Hurricane Rina continues to decay, thanks to strong upper-level southerly winds that have created 20 knots of wind shear and torn into the south side of the storm. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is in Rina, and found top winds of 71 mph at the surface with their SFMR surface wind measurement instrument, and 62 mph at their flight level of 10,000 feet, during their first penetration through the center at 9:27 am EDT. These data suggests that Rina is on the verge of becoming a tropical storm. Visible satellite loops show that Rina is just a shell of its former self, with just a small mis-shapen lump of heavy thunderstorms near the center, no eye, and little in the way of spiral bands. Cancun radar shows disorganized heavy rain squalls are affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, and it is difficult to tell from the echoes that there is a tropical storm or hurricane out there. When Rina peaked in strength yesterday with 110 mph winds, it was the 13th strongest Atlantic hurricane so late in the season. But, because it was such a small storm, Rina was very vulnerable to the persistent wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that affected it, especially once it moved away from a "hot spot" in the ocean waters southeast of the Yucatan last night. Rina should continue to decay today, and will probably make landfall as a tropical storm with 60 - 70 mph winds late this afternoon or early this evening. So far this morning, winds at Cozumel have been under 15 mph, and the island had picked up 0.35" of rainfall as of 10 am EDT. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business this weekend.

After Rina makes its closest pass by Cozumel, the storm will be too weak and shallow to "feel" the steering influence of a trough of low pressure passing to its north, and Rina will be trapped in the Western Caribbean near the coast of the Yucatan. Wind shear may be strong enough to destroy the storm by Monday. Moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is likely to bring 1 - 3 inches of rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida over the weekend.


Figure 1. Dark clouds over paradise: a wunderground webcam from Playa Del Carmen, across the channel from Cozumel Island, shows the storm clouds from Rina approaching the island at 10:06 am EDT this morning.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Rina from the Cancun, Mexico radar at 9:30 am EDT October 27, 2011. Image credit: Sevicio Meteorologico Nacional, Mexico.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Rina taken at 3:10 pm EDT October 26, 2011. At the time, Rina was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean south of Jamaica (Invest 97L), is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is no longer interested enough in 97L to generate computer model forecasts of its track. Heavy rains from 97L will spread over Honduras and Nicaragua tonight and Friday. None of the reliable computer models are developing 97L, and I don't expect development.

The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting that a strong tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression could form off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua 7 - 8 days from now.

There will be a new post on Rina late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting BullShoalsAR:
What a weak, pathetic system Rina is. Very disappointing. I was hoping for a monster. She'll continue to weaken and disappoint as has been the case all season long.

Yep. She's a torn and frayed system now. Good news for the Mexicans though.
Complete Update

HH isn't finding much on anything now.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Thanks Dr. Masters!

Quoting BullShoalsAR:
What a weak, pathetic system Rina is. Very disappointing. I was hoping for a monster. She'll continue to weaken and disappoint as has been the case all season long.

Of course, because a monster hurricane making landfall on the Yucatan peninsula would be a good thing. *Rolleyes*
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
What a weak, pathetic system Rina is. Very disappointing. I was hoping for a monster. She'll continue to weaken and disappoint as has been the case all season long.

I'm never disappointed by storms; that's just nature. The only thing that disappoints me about the tropics is the inevitable trollish behavior of some who visit here just to provoke angry reactions in others.

Stormy skies or not, the image from Cozumel nonetheless looks inviting. ;-)

Than you, Dr. Masters.
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
What a weak, pathetic system Rina is. Very disappointing. I was hoping for a monster. She'll continue to weaken and disappoint as has been the case all season long.

Um..... Why, Would you prefer a cat 5 monster tearing into the Yucatan causing death and destruction? Me, I'm very glad Rina is a decaying storm, mean's less chance of death and destruction. I like Cyclones when they are over water and no threat to anyone. But hay, that's me. * shrugs shoulders*
We should just ignore him - He's been causing trouble on the blog ever since Rina formed, especially the other night.

Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm never disappointed by storms; that's just nature. The only thing that disappoints me about the tropics is the inevitable trollish behavior of some who visit here just to provoke angry reactions in others.

Stormy skies or not, the image from Cozumel nonetheless looks inviting. ;-)

Than you, Dr. Masters.

Inviting waters intimidating skies
MOrning all...LOOKS like Rina still has a little heart beat left, but not much...And NO! Ya many WishCasters.....Sorry NO Florida Storm....J/K of course.
just repeating from last blog

looking at HH data belize radar and sat loops seems that Rean's COC is now moving ENE-NE
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
What a weak, pathetic system Rina is. Very disappointing. I was hoping for a monster. She'll continue to weaken and disappoint as has been the case all season long.


What an ignorant statement. I live on Cozumel and right now a monster storm is the last thing this area needs!
Until Dr. Masters makes this a PAY ONLY Comment Site.....the KIDDIE invasion will continue....Com'on DR. just do it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course it is.

you don't believe me do you
well look at the data and let it slap you in da face :) just joking but yeah go look at the data it will show it to you very clearly
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

you don't believe me do you
well look at the data and let it slap you in da face :) just joking but yeah go look at the data it will show it to you very clearly

lol, I was just messing with you, I deleted my comment right after I posted it. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

lol, I was just messing with you, I deleted my comment right after I posted it. :P

yeah I was thinkin u where
anyway yeah do u agree its moving ENE-NE now
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah I was thinkin u where
anyway yeah do u agree its moving ENE-NE now

Well...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
MJO on the return. Hurricane season may not be over!

Quoting TampaSpin:
Until Dr. Masters makes this a PAY ONLY Comment Site.....the KIDDIE invasion will continue....Com'on DR. just do it.

Unfortunately, unless it is really cheap, a paying site will probably not be in my budget. The joy of this site is that it is free and there are so many more intelligent, helpful folks who share info and opinions and care about victims of the storms, that it far outweighs the children and trolls. Yes, they are annoying. But we can ignore them and we can stop quoting them so that even if they are ignored their silly comments don't show up. There will always be agressive idiots who want to stir up trouble...paying site or not. JMO
I have been on this site for years and depend on you all to keep me better informed than our South Florida mets who don't want to "scare" the tourists. Thank you all so very much for your contributions to this blog.
EX 97L maybe something to watch.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Hello,what this map represents?,all this bad weather in South Florida for this weekend?? or another time in the future,thank you!!!.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Unfortunately, unless it is really cheap, a paying site will probably not be in my budget. The joy of this site is that it is free and there are so many more intelligent, helpful folks who share info and opinions and care about victims of the storms, that it far outweighs the children and trolls. Yes, they are annoying. But we can ignore them and we can stop quoting them so that even if they are ignored their silly comments don't show up. There will always be agressive idiots who want to stir up trouble...paying site or not. JMO
I have been on this site for years and depend on you all to keep me better informed than our South Florida mets who don't want to "scare" the tourists. Thank you all so very much for your contributions to this blog.


That is all true....Even if you just gotta put a Credit card in too converse would get rid of a lot of rifRaf is my point.....but, yes you are correct.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Unfortunately, unless it is really cheap, a paying site will probably not be in my budget. The joy of this site is that it is free and there are so many more intelligent, helpful folks who share info and opinions and care about victims of the storms, that it far outweighs the children and trolls. Yes, they are annoying. But we can ignore them and we can stop quoting them so that even if they are ignored their silly comments don't show up. There will always be agressive idiots who want to stir up trouble...paying site or not. JMO
I have been on this site for years and depend on you all to keep me better informed than our South Florida mets who don't want to "scare" the tourists. Thank you all so very much for your contributions to this blog.

Very well said. But at the same time nothing wrong with those who are fascinated with fierce storms and love the wrath and fury they cause. There is a enormous difference between one who wishes death and destruction upon others and one who is intrigued by the raw power mother nature produces.

Take a deep breath, relax, and try not to be so sensitive. Respect others' opinions whether they coincide with yours or not.
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
What a weak, pathetic system Rina is. Very disappointing. I was hoping for a monster. She'll continue to weaken and disappoint as has been the case all season long.
ANYONE who hopes for a monster TC to strike land, needs to go see a therapist. If you dont have insurance there are local mental health clinics, that will base it on your income. Please make an appointment soon. I also wanted to add, that there is nothing wrong with someone getting help.
Kelvin Wave Info

Atlantic:



Today -10/28: There is a slight chance for new genesis during this period (20%). This slight chance is due to the passage of an eastward progressing.

Negative 200 hPa velocity potential anomaly signature. The superposition between the current invest and the negative velocity potential anomaly

Signature is projected to occur on 10/27.



Hurricane Rina is currently located over the western Caribbean. Intensification into a major hurricane does not appear likely anymore due to the unfavorable conditions currently imposed over the tropical cyclone. These unfavorable conditions might have been due to the recent passage of a very strong suppressed KW (see eastward progression of positive VP anomalies below). There will be a very brief period where the storm may re-intensify in association with slightly more favorable atmospheric conditions due to the passage of a weak convectively active phase of a CCKW if the storm manages to stay over water on Oct 28-29.
However, this seems unlikely since the projected forecast is landfall over the Yucatan later tonight-tomorrow.



10/29-11/4: Conditions are projected to become suppressed over the Atlantic due to a low-frequency positive 200 hPa velocity potential anomaly signature.

Confidence of suppressed conditions is 70%. This forecast does not mean there will not be any tropical cyclones currently occurring over the Basin. It meansthat new genesis is less likely during this time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


what in the world

what doesn't make any sense is why is it moving NNW when last advisory had it at 18.9N 87.0W now it at 19.2N 87.0W

the HH data has that vortex message at 19.4N 86.5W
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello,what this map represents?,all this bad weather in South Florida for this weekend?? or another time in the future,thank you!!!.


Yeah rainy wx is coming for several days for C & S FL.
i have been on this blog for the last 5 yrs and i must say that the standards have deteriorated to such a low standard . that most of the persons who used to make worth while contributions have left. The blog has turned to one in which everything is a quote and reply situation. The blog has been infiltrated with paediatric comments which over the past yera has defeated its purpose. I only hope that admin has taken cognisance of this malais and to try to rectify this situation or Dr Masters' blog will continue to be a 'Tug of War'
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Very well said. But at the same time nothing wrong with those who are fascinated with fierce storms and love the wrath and fury they cause. There is a enormous difference between one who wishes death and destruction upon others and one who is intrigued by the raw power mother nature produces.

Take a deep breath, relax, and try not to be so sensitive. Respect others' opinions whether they coincide with yours or not.

But wishing a Monster storm on anyone is down right sadistic.
This is the NAM precip out put.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
EX 97L maybe something to watch.




There is currently NO Vorticity with ex 97L at all....i don't see anything evolving from it at all ...Its getting too close to Rina to get started also.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah rainy wx is coming for several days for C & S FL.
Thank you for your reply,can you put a link to that rain model?,thanks!.
Everyone have a good day....NO FIGHTING KIDS....:)
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Aussie. Down right assuming and pretentious you must be to take that out of my comment. I understand the cultural difference down under but to extract a goofy assumption such as that is hilarious. I mean, really?

FYI...Earl and Julia last year were two of my favorite storms. And guess what? Julia didn't even impact land.

What does that say about your reading and comprehension skills. Too sensitive are you as well. Learn blog ettiqutte. Will take you to places you would rather be.

My comments where on someone wishing death and destruction. i.e BullShoalsAR comment. I agree with you, I like watching storms out at sea. I cringe when they look to hit land. Hell, my niece experienced Igor last year. Sent me some great pics too.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you for your reply,can you put a link to that rain model?,thanks!.


That's a five day Precip. Accum. map from the HPC.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


what in the world

what doesn't make any sense is why is it moving NNW when last advisory had it at 18.9N 87.0W now it at 19.2N 87.0W

the HH data has that vortex message at 19.4N 86.5W


They go by 12hr motion.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Kelvin Wave Info

Atlantic:



Today -10/28: There is a slight chance for new genesis during this period (20%). This slight chance is due to the passage of an eastward progressing.

Negative 200 hPa velocity potential anomaly signature. The superposition between the current invest and the negative velocity potential anomaly

Signature is projected to occur on 10/27.



Hurricane Rina is currently located over the western Caribbean. Intensification into a major hurricane does not appear likely anymore due to the unfavorable conditions currently imposed over the tropical cyclone. These unfavorable conditions might have been due to the recent passage of a very strong suppressed KW (see eastward progression of positive VP anomalies below). There will be a very brief period where the storm may re-intensify in association with slightly more favorable atmospheric conditions due to the passage of a weak convectively active phase of a CCKW if the storm manages to stay over water on Oct 28-29.
However, this seems unlikely since the projected forecast is landfall over the Yucatan later tonight-tomorrow.



10/29-11/4: Conditions are projected to become suppressed over the Atlantic due to a low-frequency positive 200 hPa velocity potential anomaly signature.

Confidence of suppressed conditions is 70%. This forecast does not mean there will not be any tropical cyclones currently occurring over the Basin. It meansthat new genesis is less likely during this time.


this is interesting, now i have something else to try and learn and remember, thanks
Tropical moisture moving back north. Sticky here in Orlando today.



Quoting Seastep:


They go by 12hr motion.

ok but still doesn't explain what not use the HH vortex fix
by the way the HH found the COC on it next pass and found it just N of the other one
haha thought Rina was suppose to be a major hurricane now and until it got in the gulf.....what a blown forcast that was...
Quoting ITCZmike:
Ahhhh.

Just when I thought I heard it all today—the fighting, bickering, storm wish-caster mongrels...now we have the infamous TampaSpin's condenscending patronizing comments talking down upon all of us like we are beneath him or that he possess higher powers, thus somehow finding himself exclusive from the blogosphere we have in here.

LMAO Tampa. Go hit the highway on your bike and get a nice, fresh deep breath of some air. Sounds like you need it as bad as your head needs inflating, big guy.

Great point, well stated, but perhaps not exactly the most appropriate time right now. The focus at the current time should be Rina. Ummm...the soon to be TS Rina that may not even impact any land whatsoever.

Just to clarify.
Snow in N TX?

BYE RITA!!!!! WWOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Snow in N TX?


Nope.

Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Unfortunately, unless it is really cheap, a paying site will probably not be in my budget. The joy of this site is that it is free and there are so many more intelligent, helpful folks who share info and opinions and care about victims of the storms, that it far outweighs the children and trolls. Yes, they are annoying. But we can ignore them and we can stop quoting them so that even if they are ignored their silly comments don't show up. There will always be agressive idiots who want to stir up trouble...paying site or not. JMO
I have been on this site for years and depend on you all to keep me better informed than our South Florida mets who don't want to "scare" the tourists. Thank you all so very much for your contributions to this blog.


In my opinion, making this a paid membership only site would be a mistake.

Honestly, the trolling and other foolishness here is extremely tame when taken in comparison with what one finds elsewhere, all over the Internet. After all, here there are strict rules for posting messages which includes restrictions against using offensive language and even engaging in offensive or aggressive behavior toward other posters. Surely everyone here must be aware that such restrictions do not exist at all in many other places.

On the other hand, being argumentative is one of the features of the online world which seems to be permanently entrenched to some degree. Not everyone is that way by any means but the anonymity that is provided by electronic communication allows some people to act out and act up in ways that they would not dare to do in direct contact with others. So naturally, no matter where one goes there is going to be some friction.

But let's face it. Weather in general and the evolution of specific storm systems in particular are not subjects which attract a broad cross section of interest in the general community. This alone provides quite a bit of filtration for this site and this blog, to say nothing of some other specifics.

As a result of all of this, what passes for trolling here is fairly tolerable and on top of that, there is the ignore button and other tools which can be used to limit even further the amount of annoyance that any one person must experience here. I very much like this blog the way it is and the positives far outweigh the negatives, in my most humble opinion.
Chamber of Commerce weather expected for Central Florida after Saturday Afternoon!!!
Quoting JasonCoooolMan2011:
BYE RITA!!!!! WWOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting JasonCoooolMan2011:
BYE RITA!!!!! WWOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rita? Oh no my God another Rita? Gulf Coast evacuate now.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


what in the world

what doesn't make any sense is why is it moving NNW when last advisory had it at 18.9N 87.0W now it at 19.2N
87.0W

the HH data has that vortex message at 19.4N 86.5W

Dude, how many times do we have to remind you not to go by spot to spot. If you smooth it out over time the movement is NNW. Why won't you understand that? Heck, earlier this morning you said Rina was moving ENE.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope.



Wrong!!


... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow remains in effect until 1 PM CDT
this afternoon across the western and central Texas Panhandle.

* Event: total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches can be expected
through this morning across the western and central Texas Panhandle.
Isolated higher amounts around 3 inches may be possible across the
south central Texas Panhandle.

* Timing: rain and snow will continue to develop and spread across
the western and central Texas Panhandle this morning. The snow
will end between 7 am and 1 PM CDT today from northwest to
southeast across the area.

* Impacts: snow accumulations and temperatures near or just below
freezing may cause slick roads this morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
RIP Rina. You were interesting to watch while you lasted. This has been the theme for the majority of this boring season.
The Euro is showing a strong short wave cutting across the south next week.

I think Rina might be trying to pull one trick out her hat!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope.




That is incorrect. Amarillo, TX woke up to 2.5" to 3" of snow on the ground this morning.
Quoting weatherbro:
Chamber of Commerce weather expected for Central Florida after Saturday Afternoon!!!


LOL! I don't know about that. Gonna be a close one for sure. N FL should see clearing skies but C & S FL could remain cloudy with ocassional showers.
I love Hurricanes! Rina was a beautiful young lady yesterday, today she is an ugly mess WTG Rina. Glad for Cozumel and Belize and the Yucatan they don't need a Hurricane and 15 inches of rain. My kids are happy we won't have a hurricane this weekend but maybe rainy weekend instead. I guess we can live with a rainy weekend versus a TC weekend. I'll take it.
Quoting Seastep:


They go by 12hr motion.


6hr
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Wrong!!


... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow remains in effect until 1 PM CDT
this afternoon across the western and central Texas Panhandle.

* Event: total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches can be expected
through this morning across the western and central Texas Panhandle.
Isolated higher amounts around 3 inches may be possible across the
south central Texas Panhandle.

* Timing: rain and snow will continue to develop and spread across
the western and central Texas Panhandle this morning. The snow
will end between 7 am and 1 PM CDT today from northwest to
southeast across the area.

* Impacts: snow accumulations and temperatures near or just below
freezing may cause slick roads this morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.

so you mean, the Weather Underground was wrong, Wow, wouldn't of guessed that. lol

Thanks for the clarification.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Rina might be trying to pull one trick out her hat!


I think you are right rena has pull a fe tricks of of her hat before she may pull 1 or 2 more before she dies
The reason why I posted the Euro is because if the Euro pans out we could be heading for some severe could snaps in a few weeks across the SE US as the Euro is continously dropping short waves from Alaska to the Gulf Coast. Pattern seems to be shaping up to the one we had the last 2 years in FL despite La Nina.
My buttons are all gone this morning. I can see that the "Plus" feature is on as I see some pluses have been made. Any tips on how to get my buttons back?
Amarillo live

Quoting TropicTraveler:
My buttons are all gone this morning. I can see that the "Plus" feature is on as I see some pluses have been made. Any tips on how to get my buttons back?

Chuck ya pc out the window and buy another, lol
Just empty all the junk out of ya cookies and history and cache.
Quoting CapeCoralx3:


What an ignorant statement. I live on Cozumel and right now a monster storm is the last thing this area needs!


Wondered if we had anyone on here from the Island.
we will see you folks in 16 days.
Quoting scottsvb:


6hr


Then it isn't 330.

09 GMT 10/27/11 18.8N 86.9W
15 GMT 10/27/11 19.2N 87.0W

That's 346.

From the 03Z position it is 325.

They used the 12hr.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Amarillo live


wow, winter has started early there.
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Very well said. But at the same time nothing wrong with those who are fascinated with fierce storms and love the wrath and fury they cause. There is a enormous difference between one who wishes death and destruction upon others and one who is intrigued by the raw power mother nature produces.

Take a deep breath, relax, and try not to be so sensitive. Respect others' opinions whether they coincide with yours or not.


You should volunteer for a clean up after one of these storms.
Then let me know how you feel about it.
Just a hypothetical question. If Rina were to move east or ene south of Cuba would there be a chance for her to gain hurricane status again ?

Quoting StormTracker2K:
The reason why I posted the Euro is because if the Euro pans out we could be heading for some severe could snaps in a few weeks across the SE US as the Euro is continously dropping short waves from Alaska to the Gulf Coast. Pattern seems to be shaping up to the one we had the last 2 years in FL despite La Nina.
The problem is, though, that the Euro appears to be the outlier here. Most of the other reliable models (read, the GFS operational and GFS ensemble, the NAM, and the Canadian/CMC); don't predict such a sharp shortwave that far south.

On the other hand, if that does pan out for the future, things could get a bit interesting down the road with frozen precip even down as far south here in SoLA. We've had measurable snowfall for two straight years...could we make it three?? Even in a La Nina year??


Anthony
And as for Rina...well, that's what happens when things don't quite pan out right.

Between the aftereffects of the Great Texas Death Ridge, air drier than desert overcompassing the western and central GoM, and not quite perfect upper level conditions, there really wasn't quite that much chance that Rina would explode into Daughter of Wilma. 2005 was an ananomalous year, with perfect conditions for explosive development everywhere.  2011 wasn't even close.

I'm thinking one more storm in the central/eastern Carribean threatening Cuba and the adjacent countries for November, and then we can basically call the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season a wrap. Not downcasting or even forecasting....just giving my opinion.


Anthony
I believe we will see one or two more storms before the season closes. It's every bit possible the GFS and NOGAPS pans out, and maybe a subtropical system next month of maybe even out of season. The possibility is there.
79. DDR
Good afternoon
The itcz is overhead again,a few T-storms arounds,conditions deteriorating in T&T,1 inch precip. so far.
80. DDR
18 inches for October at my location in Trinidad
Night all, I might be on the Barometer Bob show in the morning, depending how i feel. Take care all.
Rina near Belize?

Quoting StormTracker2K:


OH Boy! Golly Gee! More rain for us in the Keys. just what we need.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Rina might be trying to pull one trick out her hat!


85. 7544
look to the north of rina even tho shes due to go back south whatever is forming to the north of her could do a split and head nne over fla as they are now saying up to 3 inches of rain over the pinisular so looks like from namples east will get the moisture part of her correct ?
Please don't make this a pay site, Dr. Masters. I check in daily, hardly ever post b/c I am not an expert and respect the posters who are. I did coin "terracane" last winter, but see that as more of a clever layman's contribution than a troll post. I am pretty sure there are many like me who visit this site daily and appreciate the information we can get beyond TWC. I cannot afford to pay to belong either.

If there can be more diligence just to flag the trolls daily and resist responding maybe they will get bored and go elsewhere, then maybe they won't continue to infect the blog?

Maybe a 3 strikes and out plan? If only YOU or another designated mediator gave 2 warning responses only, but that's it, and NO ONE else gives response except to flag, then they would be blocked on their 3rd try. Possibly that's what you are already doing...?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! I don't know about that. Gonna be a close one for sure. N FL should see clearing skies but C & S FL could remain cloudy with ocassional showers.


I wouldn't doubt deep south Florida will get some rain from a stalled-out Florida-Straights front. but from Lake Okeechobee northwards the weather should be picture perfect for Halloween Weekend.

The cold front will act to shield the area from rain or clouds-keeping the humidity low.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Amarillo live

when it melts it turns into water good for texas
White showing up for the first time.

I notice the projected landfall of Rina is at Tulum. Don't know if others are familiar with that site but it's an acheological site sitting on a bluff immediately above the sea - absolutely beautiful setting. Don't know if there is development immediately around it as it's been a while since I visited it. I'm glad they aren't getting a more powerful storm. Hate to think those ruins would be damaged after all these years. There's one doorway there (just a doorway and a bit of wall) with handprints around it that look as if they were put there yesterday. Palmprints, fingerprints from the past. Not replacible. It goes without saying that a less powerful storm also minimizes chances of lives lost and having people's homes destroyed. So thanks Rina for some great storm watching but it's good you died down.
Make it a free blog to read, but require a small, paid membership to comment.
Quoting 7544:
look to the north of rina even tho shes due to go back south whatever is forming to the north of her could do a split and head nne over fla as they are now saying up to 3 inches of rain over the pinisular so looks like from namples east will get the moisture part of her correct?


Highly unlikely since the Monsoonal Trough is way down in Panama right now. Whatever is left of Rina will get shunted far south into the Caribbean until another trough comes late next week. But from Saturday afternoon-Tuesday, most of Peninsula Florida can expect sumptuous weather!
I'm glad Rina has weakened. No one needs a big storm at their door step.

Found this picture of Rina from the Space Station taken just yesterday (Oct. 26) at 5 AM. You can see the outflow and the COC.

What did I miss about turning this into a "pay" site? Some of us already make a small (very small) payment to WU to be paid members. Has Dr. Masters or admin made a new proposal that has raised this topic or is it the idea of a blogger?
Quoting reedzone:
I believe we will see one or two more storms before the season closes. It's every bit possible the GFS and NOGAPS pans out, and maybe a subtropical system next month of maybe even out of season. The possibility is there.


Haha, didn't quit pan out on Rina did it. Or Lee, Nate, Irene and etc. Curious guy though. I hate being right on storms and I unfortunately nailed this season months ago and my predicated tracks have played out for each and every system since Irene. Systems basically had two options after Lee and the early deep trough.

Typing on iPhone so apologize upfront about crazy typos.

This site is bizarre from a psychological stand point. It is like this inner struggle, denial and condemnation cycle.

People shouldn't bash other for being either a wishcaster or a down caster. In fact, the casters come out with more force when people such as dyingpyrate start taking offense to it. Like children pushing buttons and enjoying the reactions or attention.

I would venture to say that most on here, whether they care to admit or not, want a hurricane and want to see them strike land. It's entertaining. Its not like we cause it to happen so there is nothing wrong with watchingbut happen and marveling at the power if mother nature.

It's like tornado chasers. No one bashes them for enjoying the hunt and chase, yet people on her got all uppity when someone acts like a wishcaster or is excited about the prospect of a hurricane moving toward land. Let them be excited. It's not like they are causing it or the way they feel will have any bearing on the storm. No reason to label wishcaster as a negative connotation.

Most of us come here because we are fascinated with storms and want to witness them and follow them. I want to surf them. What other reason to come here to a tropical storm weather site. Those that come on here just to socialize or to simply cause problems by criticizing those who actually appreciate mother nature and want to follow her creations are . . . well may haveother issues.

Then some may say the casters of either variety put out incorrect information which is dangerous. Haha, give me a break. No one in the right mind would base their safety decisions solely upon what some unanimous poster says on a weather blog. At the end if the day, people listen to their local weather, NHC and TWC. As noted above, even those who are not labeled as casters are usually further off base than those that are and my forecast for the entire season had been on, yet everything I have read on here has been changing on a day to day bases and is all over the place.

Accordingly, this is a great place to monitor activity and have fun trying to read maps and learn how to forecast. Nothing more and nothing less. It's just completely incongruous for people to be here in the first place and then be critical of others who enjoy watching systems by labeling them a wishcaster.

One last thing, why would any normal person who feels good about themselves feel the need to tell someone they have been poofed. Haha, I guess it's like a kid trying to hurt another kid on the playground by making them feel excluded. A normal person who is irritated will either simply not read the post that causes them so much grief or do ignore or whatever they need to do if it is so upsetting to even see that person's name.

Haha, I love it. Taz is the best at this, bless his heart. I guess I am wierd that i can just skim past something I dont want to read and in that sometimes I rather enjoy reading crazy stuff. The crazy stuff breaks up the monotony and weather can get pretty boring to read about. Just never felt the need to poof anyone, much less tell them they have been poofed. Even the crazies have sane ideas every once in a while . . .
94. TropicTraveler.. just a blogger
97. 7544
looks like ex97l is going to plow into rina and become one
Quoting 996tt:


Haha, didn't quit pan out on Rina did it. Or Lee, Nate, Irene and etc. Curious guy though. I hate being right on storms and I unfortunately nailed this season months ago and my predicated tracks have played out for each and every system since Irene. Systems basically had two options after Lee and the early deep trough.

Typing on iPhone so apologize upfront about crazy typos.

This site is bizarre from a psychological stand point. It is like this inner struggle, denial and condemnation cycle.

People shouldn't bash other for being either a wishcaster or a down caster. In fact, the casters come out with more force when people such as dyingpyrate start taking offense to it. Like children pushing buttons and enjoying the reactions or attention.

I would venture to say that most on here, whether they care to admit or not, want a hurricane and want to see them strike land. It's entertaining. Its not like we cause it to happen so there is nothing wrong with watchingbut happen and marveling at the power if mother nature.

It's like tornado chasers. No one bashes them for enjoying the hunt and chase, yet people on her got all uppity when someone acts like a wishcaster or is excited about the prospect of a hurricane moving toward land. Let them be excited. It's not like they are causing it or the way they feel will have any bearing on the storm. No reason to label wishcaster as a negative connotation.

Most of us come here because we are fascinated with storms and want to witness them and follow them. I want to surf them. What other reason to come here to a tropical storm weather site. Those that come on here just to socialize or to simply cause problems by criticizing those who actually appreciate mother nature and want to follow her creations are . . . well may haveother issues.

Then some may say the casters of either variety put out incorrect information which is dangerous. Haha, give me a break. No one in the right mind would base their safety decisions solely upon what some unanimous poster says on a weather blog. At the end if the day, people listen to their local weather, NHC and TWC. As noted above, even those who are not labeled as casters are usually further off base than those that are and my forecast for the entire season had been on, yet everything I have read on here has been changing on a day to day bases and is all over the place.

Accordingly, this is a great place to monitor activity and have fun trying to read maps and learn how to forecast. Nothing more and nothing less. It's just completely incongruous for people to be here in the first place and then be critical of others who enjoy watching systems by labeling them a wishcaster.

One last thing, why would any normal person who feels good about themselves feel the need to tell someone they gave been poofed. Haha, I guess it's like a kid trying to hurt another kid on the playground by making them feel excluded. A normal person who is irritated by the antics it post if another will either simply nit read them or do ignore or whatever they need to do if it is so upsetting to evensee that person's name . . . Haha, I guess I am wierd in that sometimes I rather enjoy reading crazy stuff. Breaks up the monotony and never had any problems not reading something I didn't want to read.


Umm why did you attack me on this post? I never did say Rina was going to become anything but a Category 2 storm at the most. I didn't say Rina was poised to Florida, and I certainly nailed Irene. I'm not giving myself credit, forecasts are forecast and half the time they can be wrong. I'm not upset that Rina didn't become a major, the Yucatan doesn't need it. That was really rude of you to get at me.. You need to stop listening to liars like scottsvb and just read my posts. I never said Rina was going to be a huge storm.
Yes!



Just Kidding :-P
Some on here seem to be patting themselves on the back too much and it really is getting quite annoying, you know who you are, so I ask please stop.
101. MahFL
Quoting reedzone:


Umm why did you attack me on this post? ....forecasts are forecast and half the time they can be wrong.......


What's your defination of "wrong" ?

The NHC said it was going to be a Cat 3 and its a TS, so they were very wrong.
I know there are a lot of surfers on the gulf coast who would have liked Rina to clear the channel....skunked again, so make that drive to the east coast after the front clears, I know I will.
Quoting MahFL:


What's your defination of "wrong" ?

The NHC said it was going to be a Cat 3 and its a TS, so they were very wrong.
Wow! 1 mph off big deal, they were not very wrong, and do a better job than most on here going conservative with intensity, unlike some of the models i.e. the HWRF that seems to blow every system up, so I don't know what you are talking about and I'm sure it got past 110 mph at some point!
mosquitos are ferocious this yr e cen fl.
Any blog discussions on the flooding in Thailand? Thanks.
Not gonna argue with another darn troll that's trying to make lies.. I'm out for a while guys, take it easy.
Quoting RickWPB:
I'm glad Rina has weakened. No one needs a big storm at their door step.

Found this picture of Rina from the Space Station taken just yesterday (Oct. 26) at 5 AM. You can see the outflow and the COC.



Thats an amazing shot.
Quoting jonelu:


Thats an amazing shot.

What a difference a day makes!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Wow! 1 mph off big deal, they were not very wrong, and do a better job than most on here going conservative with intensity, unlike some of the models i.e. the HWRF that seems to blow every system up, so I don't know what you are talking about and I'm sure it got past 110 mph at some point!
How are a tropical storm and a category 3 hurricane only 1 mph apart?????


Rina looking good and expanding in size again, ex97L doesn't look too bad right now either!
Looks like Rina wants to be around for awhile. (unless this is another low)



Don't get the 0% deal by the NHC.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Rina looking good and expanding in size again, ex97L doesn't look too bad right now either!


I've been posting them for the past few hours. I thought it was just me. Didn't want an attack. LOL
Quoting stormpetrol:


Rina looking good and expanding in size again, ex97L doesn't look too bad right now either!


You can really see that southerly shear that Dr. Masters mentioned in his post in that image.
Looking Wet for C FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
136 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011


.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...BIG CHANGES WILL BE TAKING
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS UNDER AN INCH...IS BEING REPLACED BY A MUCH
MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL STORM
RINA IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MOISTURE...BUT THE CENTER
OF RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
THE MOISTURE RETURN WAS IMPRESSIVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS JUMPED FROM 1.2 TO OVER 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS.
MODELS BRING THIS DEEPER MOISTURE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA
THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE NATURE COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

ON FRIDAY...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST OR
NORTHEAST WHILE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COMES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A FAIRLY ROBUST OVER-RUNNING PATTERN
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND THEREFORE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER SHOWING JUST
A SHALLOW POOL OF COOL AIR...MOSTLY BELOW 850 MB...WITH CONTINUED
WARM AIR OVER-RUNNING THE FRONT. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH AS 60
TO 70 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BUT SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES
TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING OVER THE NATURE COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE IT TAKES UNTIL MID DAY TO CLEAR THE TAMPA AREA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ALL DAY
SATURDAY AROUND THE FORT MYERS AREA.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT DOWN A BIT BY THE EXTRA
CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST PLACES WILL STILL SEE 80 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY...THEN MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY.
EX 97L may give Rina a little boost.

It would not surprise me if the HHs found Rina a hurricane again.
Quoting Patrap:
Cozumel International WunderMap


Thanks Pat! Really dry air over Cozumel dewpoint of 62 as a tropical storm approaches. No wonder why Rina Choked.
Time: 17:56:00Z
Coordinates: 20.15N 86.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.4 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,549 meters (~ 5,082 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 118° at 38 knots (From the ESE at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 15.3°C* (~ 59.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

gettin close
Quoting TropicTraveler:
I notice the projected landfall of Rina is at Tulum. Don't know if others are familiar with that site but it's an acheological site sitting on a bluff immediately above the sea - absolutely beautiful setting. Don't know if there is development immediately around it as it's been a while since I visited it. I'm glad they aren't getting a more powerful storm. Hate to think those ruins would be damaged after all these years. There's one doorway there (just a doorway and a bit of wall) with handprints around it that look as if they were put there yesterday. Palmprints, fingerprints from the past. Not replacible. It goes without saying that a less powerful storm also minimizes chances of lives lost and having people's homes destroyed. So thanks Rina for some great storm watching but it's good you died down.


Was just at Tulum last year. Still fairly isolated, except for the inevitable vendors outside the park entrance. It's been there a long time and has survived a lot of really big hurricanes, so Rina, even if had held together, wouldn't have done anything but knock down a few palm trees. The Mayans certainly understood weather though. Tulum is on a bluff and built back a few hundred feet from the edge of the bluff, so no storm surge could ever get to it. A lot better location than our hotel, which is directly on the beach, and has been badly damaged by hurricanes twice in the twelve years since it was built.

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Hurricane Hunters finding TS winds on the moon!

Quoting weatherbro:


Highly unlikely since the Monsoonal Trough is way down in Panama right now. Whatever is left of Rina will get shunted far south into the Caribbean until another trough comes late next week. But from Saturday afternoon-Tuesday, most of Peninsula Florida can expect sumptuous weather!


He mentioned from Naples East. From Naples East should be a wash out all day Saturday if the forecast holds true. Here's the forecast for Naples Fl.
But yes, most of Fl. should clear up on Saturday, just not down in Naples to Miami.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Northeast wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
lil swirl right below that thick line of convection assosiated with 97L
136. 996tt
Quoting groundswell:
I know there are a lot of surfers on the gulf coast who would have liked Rina to clear the channel....skunked again, so make that drive to the east coast after the front clears, I know I will.


Yep. Putting some miles on the vehicles this season, but has been epic surf a few times and well worth the trip. Moving back to the left coast on the first. Leaving Destin this weekend. Moved down here just in time to hit Gustav and Ike and was thinking "not to shabbly." Got some great double overhead stuff at a few protected spots and nice nice head + for a few days right out my balcony when leaving at Beach Club in PNS. Then, nothing. Been very flat and if not for frequent trips to Coca and Sebastion, and PR and CR, I would be terribly out of shape. Cannot wait to get back home in Huntington Beach for many reasons, including the surf.
That dry sinking air is killing her fast. It goes to show you how fragile these systems are.
..earlier.

Quoting reedzone:
Not gonna argue with another darn troll that's trying to make lies.. I'm out for a while guys, take it easy.


I've been reading this blog for many years and I simply don't understand why some posters have issues with your contribution. I appreciate your input and I would guess that I'm in the majority on this.
000
URNT12 KNHC 271828
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 27/18:11:40Z
B. 19 deg 31 min N
087 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1367 m
D. 48 kt
E. 046 deg 15 nm
F. 128 deg 55 kt
G. 046 deg 30 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 16 C / 1515 m
J. 22 C / 1525 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 1318A RINA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NE QUAD 18:03:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 230 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
looking at radar of Belize Rena is moving N-NNE and the sat loops says she looks a little stronger

not only that look at 97L looks great compaired to last night



She should become a 1000-1004mb remnant LP within 24-48hrs imo
Impressive outflow boundary can be easily seen on the RGB loop linked here: RGB Loop

Notice the quick round flash of cloud that spreads out mid-loop.

Now if you flip to AVN, you'll notice that the overshooting tops (black) quit after the outflow boundary spreads out.

Another dose of dry air entrained, and another stab to the heart of Rina...
850 vort has also increased for 97L shear as also decreased a litte for Rina I think Rena will last longer than forecasted and I also think that 97L has another chance to become TD 19 or TS Sean
Quoting TropicTraveler:
I notice the projected landfall of Rina is at Tulum. Don't know if others are familiar with that site but it's an acheological site sitting on a bluff immediately above the sea - absolutely beautiful setting.

Hate to think those ruins would be damaged after all these years.


Have been there as well TT, and was quite concerned when 1st projected as possible major at landfall. Sure they've been through ones in the past, but as it gets older would have to believe it's more susceptible to damage. It's a wonderful, one of a kind place.

Looks like we'll have clear but quite cool weather for Game 6, and hopefully, as I have tickets for it, Game 7 of the WS.
That long hot summer in Central Texas is a thing of the past. Looks like picture perfect weather next week with highs in the 70s lows in the 50s. They need more rain, but that's some great get out and play weather.

Forecast for next week (Austin Tx).

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 71. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 76. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
I'm a lousy forecaster at anything, from weather to the stock market. I do try to do my homework on both, and sometimes it pays off. My take on Rina from the beginning is that she was a very small storm that was trapped in the Gulf of Honduras because there were basically no steering currents. Even though the waters of the GOH were very warm, any storm, sitting in almost the same place for six days, is going to cause a lot of upwelling, thus decreasing the amount of fuel needed to maintain strength, let alone intensify. The only chance Rina had was get a move on, and that never happened.

The dry air over the Gulf has been in place for the last several weeks. Even if Rina had been a larger, faster moving storm, it would have been difficult to remain a hurricane if she was able to to survive and get into the GOM. The RH at my PWS, 100 miles inland from the Gulf, is once again 29%. It's not much better at Mobile, right on the Gulf, at only 48%. Heck, it's only 65% at San Juan, which is way lower than any time I've been there.

For some reason, the hostile shear in the GOM was also overlooked or played down by the models. The shear right above the Yucatan Channel was only about 20 knots, but it was 50 to 60 knots 100 miles further north. This shear was only going to get worse as the effects of the cold front, now draped over almost the entire CONUS, reached the GOM by Saturday.

I don't want to get into who said what when, since almost all of us are a bunch of amateur weather geeks, and a post-mortem on Rina is probably still a bit early. The NHC, once again, did a reasonably good job on track, but a lousy job on intensity. Models are certainly valuable, but it's kind of like an NWS office with no windows (really, I've been to one). Sticking your head out the window, looking at the sky, and smelling the air is sometimes worth more than all the models in the world. I suspect there were meteorologists at NHC who saw exactly what I saw and came to the same conclusions, but the models overruled experience and common sense. I'm sure the models will improve over time, but I hope the experience of the meteorologists who have been tracking hurricanes for 20 or 30 years doesn't get lost in the shuffle.

As for why people on this blog are here, I think it falls into several categories:

1. Those that have a direct interest in if the hurricane is coming right at them. I'm a ham radio operator and part of the Hurricane Watch Net, but I want to know how far inland we are going to get high winds, so I can lower my antennas and prevent a lot of damage. People on the islands or on the beach want to know if they need to get out and how long they have until it hits.

2. Weather Geeks. I've been one since I was about 10 years old, and still like to track and see the effects of storms. Something about the ever changing aspect of weather has always fascinated me, and I probably would have become a met if I could have passed all the danged math. :)

3. News hounds. These are people who are interested in everything going on in the world, and that includes hurricanes, flood in Thailand, or tornadoes in Alabama. They're not so much interested in the science of what's happening, just where things are at now and where they are might be going.

4. Last, and thankfully, least are the trolls and nuts. The trolls always join up a few days before a big storm, make inane or provocative comments, and then sit back and see what kind of chaos they can cause. Too many of us, including me, rise to the bait, and make their day. If we can have the discipline to ignore them, the blog would be a lot better place. The nuts are the ones who seem to get an adrenaline rush from big storms crushing places. I'm not a psychologist, so I don't know what really drives them. Maybe they are bored, lonely, or have a sick joy in the suffering of others. Every storm is going to be the "big one", and Miami or New Orleans are going to get leveled. Some have a pretty good knowledge of hurricanes, but they will pick up every crumb of information that shows the storm has chance of wrecking someplace wile ignoring data that shows that's not going to happen. They repeat the same pattern with every storm and, like a stopped clock, they will eventually be right on a few storms.

That's my soapbox for today. I hope I didn't offend anyone but, if I did, you know who you are. It's been interesting to track Rina, but I'm glad it appears that she's going to no more than a weak tropical storm for the Yucatan, which has suffered a lot over the last 20 years from big hurricanes.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


He mentioned from Naples East. From Naples East should be a wash out all day Saturday if the forecast holds true. Here's the forecast for Naples Fl.
But yes, most of Fl. should clear up on Saturday, just not down in Naples to Miami.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Northeast wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.


Now it appears Saturday will be soggy even for Central FL. but Sunday-Tuesday should be sweet even for you guys since a Noreaster will bomb-out just off the Mid Atlantic/New England coast. That should push this boundary all the way down to Cuba/NW Caribbean by Sunday. Once that happens, the moisture from Rina won't be able to head northward until mid-late next week.

So Halloween will be sumptuous!!!
Recon has found that Rina has weakened to a 60mph tropical storm. The cyclone should also stay well away from the continental United States.

Very welcomed news by me.
Quoting SPLbeater:
lil swirl right below that thick line of convection assosiated with 97L
gee in that photo, 97L looks like its getting an eye, doesnt it?
Gert's TCR is out (in case no one has noticed yet). Nothing has really changed, other than the fact she developed before she was given a high chance of development.

TCR for Gert
Quoting yqt1001:
Gert's TCR is out (in case no one has noticed yet). Nothing has really changed, other than the fact she developed before she was given a high chance of development.

TCR for Gert

It was mentioned in the previous blog entry. The big change I saw was that her max winds were bumped from 50 knots to 55 knots...
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
How are a tropical storm and a category 3 hurricane only 1 mph apart?????
You didn't read that right...Quoting MahFL:


What's your defination of "wrong" ?

The NHC said it was going to be a Cat 3 and its a TS, so they were very wrong.

Well it got up to a Cat. 2 110 mph 1 mile shy of officially being a Cat. 3 Hurricane. And I was defending the NHC, since some bloggers like to bash them it seems.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It was mentioned in the previous blog entry. The big change I saw was that her max winds were bumped from 50 knots to 55 knots...


Oh right. I forgot that she was at 50kts...
Quoting stormpetrol:
It would not surprise me if the HHs found Rina a hurricane again.


You wouldn't like to place a bet on that would you...say $100 to our favorite charities? Rina's hurricane days are done, and no slight change in appearance or convection are going to change that.
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA

Quoting hurricanealley:
Hurricane Hunters finding TS winds on the moon!

lol
159. 996tt
Quoting sar2401:
I'm a lousy forecaster at anything, from weather to the stock market. I do try to do my homework on both, and sometimes it pays off. My take on Rina from the beginning is that she was a very small storm that was trapped in the Gulf of Honduras because there were basically no steering currents. Even though the waters of the GOH were very warm, any storm, sitting in almost the same place for six days, is going to cause a lot of upwelling, thus decreasing the amount of fuel needed to maintain strength, let alone intensify. The only chance Rina had was get a move on, and that never happened.

The dry air over the Gulf has been in place for the last several weeks. Even if Rina had been a larger, faster moving storm, it would have been difficult to remain a hurricane if she was able to to survive and get into the GOM. The RH at my PWS, 100 miles inland from the Gulf, is once again 29%. It's not much better at Mobile, right on the Gulf, at only 48%. Heck, it's only 65% at San Juan, which is way lower than any time I've been there.

For some reason, the hostile shear in the GOM was also overlooked or played down by the models. The shear right above the Yucatan Channel was only about 20 knots, but it was 50 to 60 knots 100 miles further north. This shear was only going to get worse as the effects of the cold front, now draped over almost the entire CONUS, reached the GOM by Saturday.

I don't want to get into who said what when, since almost all of us are a bunch of amateur weather geeks, and a post-mortem on Rina is probably still a bit early. The NHC, once again, did a reasonably good job on track, but a lousy job on intensity. Models are certainly valuable, but it's kind of like an NWS office with no windows (really, I've been to one). Sticking your head out the window, looking at the sky, and smelling the air is sometimes worth more than all the models in the world. I suspect there were meteorologists at NHC who saw exactly what I saw and came to the same conclusions, but the models overruled experience and common sense. I'm sure the models will improve over time, but I hope the experience of the meteorologists who have been tracking hurricanes for 20 or 30 years doesn't get lost in the shuffle.

As for why people on this blog are here, I think it falls into several categories:

1. Those that have a direct interest in if the hurricane is coming right at them. I'm a ham radio operator and part of the Hurricane Watch Net, but I want to know how far inland we are going to get high winds, so I can lower my antennas and prevent a lot of damage. People on the islands or on the beach want to know if they need to get out and how long they have until it hits.

2. Weather Geeks. I've been one since I was about 10 years old, and still like to track and see the effects of storms. Something about the ever changing aspect of weather has always fascinated me, and I probably would have become a met if I could have passed all the danged math. :)

3. News hounds. These are people who are interested in everything going on in the world, and that includes hurricanes, flood in Thailand, or tornadoes in Alabama. They're not so much interested in the science of what's happening, just where things are at now and where they are might be going.

4. Las, and thankfully, least are the trolls and nuts. The trolls always join up a few days before a big storm, make inane or provocative comments, and then sit back and see what kind of chaos they can cause. Too many of us, including me, rise to the bait, and make their day. If we can have the discipline to ignore them, the blog would be a lot better place. The nuts are the ones who seem to get an adrenaline rush from big storms crushing places. I'm not a psychologist, so I don't know what really drives them. Maybe they are bored, lonely, or have a sick joy in the suffering of others. Every storm is going to be the "big one", and Miami or New Orleans are going to get leveled. Some have a pretty good knowledge of hurricanes, but they will pick up every crumb of information that shows the storm has chance of wrecking someplace wile ignoring data that shows that's not going to happen. They repeat the same pattern with every storm and, like a stopped clock, they will eventually be right on a few storms.

That's my soapbox for today. I hope I didn't offend anyone but, if I did, you know who you are. It's been interesting to track Rina, but I'm glad it appears that she's going to no more than a weak tropical storm for the Yucatan, which has suffered a lot over the last 20 years from big hurricanes.


Haha, we are all weather geeks and a bit nutty.

RE: Reed. Like this dude. Yeah his forecast are way out there and usually against objective data, but who gives a damn. At least he has conviction and believes in what he writes and has reasons and rationals for his beliefs. Awesome.

Candidly, no one on here has done anything remotely great as far as forecasting. I even asked Levi, immediately after Lee, some very poignant and direct questions, about weather patterns and why storms would not do just as they have done since Lee. Couldn't get a straight answer and everyone here seems to simply look at models, then anaylze the maps to try and quage which models has the best chance based on the various levels of steering, ridges, troughs and etc.

That being said, Levi and others really know a whole lot about weather and why things happen.

I used to like StormW, but bless his heart he was wrong a lot and ended leaving here after getting a lot of flack about it. The flack seemed to be directed at those who were perhaps wishcasters and frusterated because we were not getting any action her in the CONUS.

I love the wishcasters. I love weather geeks. I love storm chasing, tornanda chasing and etc. I have lost two houses and had another one severaly damaged as result of Ivan and Katrina so I know all to well what it is like to lose stuff that cannot be replaced and the stinch of dead bodies is foreever embedded in my mind after entering Biloxi right after Katrina to search for belongs. I only found a foundation and half a plate!!!

I still am in awe of hurricanes and get excited when they develop. I will also drive to get as close as I can to them to either surf or hopefully one day be in the eye of a big one. What I don't understand is why downcaster or naysayers would come to a hurricane blog to try and convince everyone there will not be any fun for us . . . some kind of social disorder I guess, but its all good. Enjoy reading their stuff.
I come on here, because I have no other place to go. I guess I am a weather geek, too. There used to be really nice and fun people on here once. I don't like to argue, but I do see a lot of people do insult each other. There is still some very nice people here though.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA



Wow! I can remember going to India 35 years ago and you were lucky if there was power, or that it stayed on for more than a few hours a day. One can certainly see why India is going to be a big player in the coming generation
From Cozumel~
Not that I actually WISH for a hurricane or anything~ I have seen first hand the devastating destruction & impact they cause~ especially with Wilma.
& I hope this doesn't sound too weird.. but I guess I am a bit disappointed in Rina as not much is happening on Cozumel at the moment.. But at least we are prepared. & I must admit I find hurricanes kind of exciting... & although the devastation was so great & so tragic... Wilma was so awesome as a storm in itself at the time I was more excited than scared.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA



It takes a lot of energy to produce that amount of light. No wonder we have so much atmospheric pollution.
Quoting WoodyFL:
I come on here, because I have no other place to go. I guess I am a weather geek, too. There used to be really nice and fun people on here once. I don't like to argue, but I do see a lot of people do insult each other. There is still some very nice people here though.


Woody, you've posted a lot of really good grpahics and comments. You're one of the weather geeks I always follow, since it's obvious you do your homework. There are still a lot of good people here, you just have to sort the wheat from the chaff a little more lately.

BTW, I hope no one thinks I'm using the term "weather geek" in a derogatory manner. I also consider myself to be a radio geek. To me, a geek is someone who, although they may not have diplomas all over the wall, still knows a good bit about what they like to do.
temps in the 40s all the way down SW of Fort Worth TX.
Blue Norther has hit TX, from 100-110 heat, drought, to 30s and 40s with drought
Quoting sar2401:


Woody, you've posted a lot of really good grpahics and comments. You're one of the weather geeks I always follow, since it's obvious you do your homework. There are still a lot of good people here, you just have to sort the wheat from the chaff a little more lately.

BTW, I hope no one thinks I'm using the term "weather geek" in a derogatory manner. I also consider myself to be a radio geek. To me, a geek is someone who, although they may not have diplomas all over the wall, still knows a good bit about what they like to do.


LOL. It's OK. I am a geek. I have the diplomas but obviously not in meteorology.

It just reminds me of an incident I witnessed a few years ago in the parking lot at Home Depot. A couple got out of their car and was yelling a a young guy in car that was partially blocking them. They were cursing at him and calling him a moron because he wasn't moving fast enough. He pulled his car all the way to the end and parked. As he was getting out of his car, both his legs were in braces and he had metal arm crutches. He apologized and slowly walked into the store. I guess people on here don't always know how much they can hurt somebody with their words. You just don't know what somebody else is going through.
Quoting sar2401:


Wow! I can remember going to India 35 years ago and you were lucky if there was power, or that it stayed on for more than a few hours a day. One can certainly see why India is going to be a big player in the coming generation
yes, the Giants of the far east India and China wil be the players and the big Moguls for the future, U.S. Europe even including technologycally powerful Japan, in order to deal with new reality, will have to look for ways to survive as competives, economies under this new reality. Obviously the U.S have their two invincible strongholds: War technology,weapons and food.
Quoting EasyRiderX:


It takes a lot of energy to produce that amount of light. No wonder we have so much atmospheric pollution.
Those lights are in the form of candles that is lit twice a year mid-Oct and mid-Nov in celebration of attaining Nirvana or free from suffering. Diwali is popularly known as the "festival of lights" Link
He who stops and helps another, is favored by God and the Universe..


Quoting EasyRiderX:


It takes a lot of energy to produce that amount of light. No wonder we have so much atmospheric pollution.


India consumes about 4% of the world's power production for 17% of the world's population. Imagine what things would be like if India was consuming anywhere near the power percentage that matched her population. India does produce about 25% of her power though hydro, and has been cleaning up her extremely dirty coal plants over the last decade. Tough balancing act, though, to tell the people of India they can't have more power because of pollution when we create and use ten times more power than India.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Blue Norther has hit TX, from 100-110 heat, drought, to 30s and 40s with drought

This storm has snow though, right? A little precip into the ground maybe....
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Those lights are in the form of candles that is lit twice a year mid-Oct and mid-Nov in celebration of attaining Nirvana or free from suffering. Diwali is popularly known as the "festival of lights" Link


What percentage of those lights were just candles, I wonder? I'm sure they must have contributed some, which is pretty amazing in itself, but you can sure pick out the major cities in India by their light patterns. I'd sure like to see a similar picture from about 1960 to see the difference.
Here is a better and easier understandable definition of what Diwali is Link
Apropos of nothing: I'm out for a couple of hours, but wanted to share this recent (9/25) image from Norway of the aurora, the Milky Way, and two passing meteora. Best viewed fully sized:

CLICK FOR FULL-SIZE IMAGE:
Aurora


View the entire gallery here.
TS.Rina's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 26Oct_6pmGMT and ending 27Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 27Oct_6pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 19.41n87.515w-TUY is the endpoint of the 27Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 19.034n87.581w-SJX is the same for 27Oct_6amGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Rina's travel-speed was 7mph(11.3k/h) on a heading of 351.0degrees(N)
TS.Rina was headed toward passage over X-Puha,QuintanaRoo,Mexico ~7hours from now

Copy&paste cpe, 19.034n87.581w-sjx, 19.41n87.515w-tuy, 18.0n85.7w-18.3n86.1w, 18.3n86.1w-18.6n86.7w, 18.6n86.7w-18.9n87.0w, 18.9n87.0w-19.5n87.1w, 18.9n87.0w-20.464n87.262w, pcm into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 27Oct_12pmGMT
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Obviously the U.S have their two invincible strongholds: War technology,weapons and food.


We're losing out pretty fast on that front too. India now produces all her own weapons, including missiles and nuclear warheads, and has become a world-wide exporter of weapons. Brazil has also become a major weapons exporter, along with China. They've got us beat on price and are catching up with technology at an alarming rate. I think food and food related machinery may be the remaining export earners for the US in the coming decades.
One of the weirder Post K conditions was folks seeing the Summer Sky with the Milky Way glowing in the darkened night.

Lotsa folks were simply amazed at it..seeing it for the first time.
Quoting PressureDrop:


I've been reading this blog for many years and I simply don't understand why some posters have issues with your contribution. I appreciate your input and I would guess that I'm in the majority on this.


I agree with you, I value Reed's posts as well, it's just some are very jealous that they don't have as much expertise in weather as Reed does.
Quoting LAlurker:
Make it a free blog to read, but require a small, paid membership to comment.


No, I am 15, and I come on here to learn more about the complexities of weather. As a teen, I cannot afford to have a paid membership. I'm not just another one of those who act immature.
Quoting 996tt:


Haha, we are all weather geeks and a bit nutty.

RE: Reed. Like this dude. Yeah his forecast are way out there and usually against objective data, but who gives a damn. At least he has conviction and believes in what he writes and has reasons and rationals for his beliefs. Awesome.

Candidly, no one on here has done anything remotely great as far as forecasting. I even asked Levi, immediately after Lee, some very poignant and direct questions, about weather patterns and why storms would not do just as they have done since Lee. Couldn't get a straight answer and everyone here seems to simply look at models, then anaylze the maps to try and quage which models has the best chance based on the various levels of steering, ridges, troughs and etc.

That being said, Levi and others really know a whole lot about weather and why things happen.

I used to like StormW, but bless his heart he was wrong a lot and ended leaving here after getting a lot of flack about it. The flack seemed to be directed at those who were perhaps wishcasters and frusterated because we were not getting any action her in the CONUS.

I love the wishcasters. I love weather geeks. I love storm chasing, tornanda chasing and etc. I have lost two houses and had another one severaly damaged as result of Ivan and Katrina so I know all to well what it is like to lose stuff that cannot be replaced and the stinch of dead bodies is foreever embedded in my mind after entering Biloxi right after Katrina to search for belongs. I only found a foundation and half a plate!!!

I still am in awe of hurricanes and get excited when they develop. I will also drive to get as close as I can to them to either surf or hopefully one day be in the eye of a big one. What I don't understand is why downcaster or naysayers would come to a hurricane blog to try and convince everyone there will not be any fun for us . . . some kind of social disorder I guess, but its all good. Enjoy reading their stuff.


I must have misread your last post, thought you were attacking me.. I apologize bout that and thanks for the compliment.


I think there is circulation with ex97L around 15N/82.5W


What a weird cone!
That was some quick weakening. Rina looks like a TD now. It's amazing what dry air can do once it gets into the core.
Looks like another system may try to get going.

All of this moisture is heading north so if something does try to spin up down here then FL could be in trouble.



Probably the fastest rise and fall I have ever seen...

96 hours ago:


72 hours ago:


48 hours ago:


24 hours ago:


Now:


Impressive!


Pressures are quite low all across the Caribbean
Amazing, a potential 3-6 winter storm for NYC this weekend.. wow
Quoting stormpetrol:


Interesting indeed! One chaotic mess there.
Link

hey guys this is ex 97L now....speed up the loop anyone notice anything...also looks similar to rina 96hours ago
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

hey guys this is ex 97L now....speed up the loop anyone notice anything...also looks similar to rina 96hours ago

Interesting! looks like a little circulation right in the open in the center.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
That long hot summer in Central Texas is a thing of the past. Looks like picture perfect weather next week with highs in the 70s lows in the 50s. They need more rain, but that's some great get out and play weather.

Forecast for next week (Austin Tx).

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 71. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 76. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
We dont need clear skies, we have had a year plus of that, LOL, in 70s now, been 90 last 3 days, no rain in sight but at least it isnt hot.
Quoting sar2401:


We're losing out pretty fast on that front too. India now produces all her own weapons, including missiles and nuclear warheads, and has become a world-wide exporter of weapons. Brazil has also become a major weapons exporter, along with China. They've got us beat on price and are catching up with technology at an alarming rate. I think food and food related machinery may be the remaining export earners for the US in the coming decades.


In order to sell a leading edge, technological weapon, you need GPS.... US GPS, is is behind and we are no longer the exclusive owners of that technology....

Chinese GPS moves closer

BEIJING, June 4 -- The launch of the country's fourth Beidou orbiter late on Wednesday night signals "a step closer" toward the highly anticipated Chinese-version of the Global Positioning System (GPS), a senior official said on Thursday.

Beidou, or Compass system, is built to rival the United States-developed GPS, the European Union's Galileo and Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System, and is aimed at allowing travelers, drivers and military officials to know their locations.

China aims to have 12 Beidou navigation satellites in orbit before 2012 to cover the Asia and Pacific region, and complete the system with 35 navigation satellites to provide global services by 2020.

At 23:53 pm on Wednesday, the fourth orbiter was launched into space atop the Long March 3C carrier rocket from Xichang of Sichuan province, Xinhua News Agency reported.

It is the second Compass satellite launched in the past six months.

"The country is stepping into a busy period of launching the Compass satellites," an unnamed official in charge of the project was quoted as saying on the official www.beidou.gov.cn website.

To follow the plan, eight more Compass satellites will be launched until 2012.

"As scientists have made breakthroughs in core technologies, the following launches should be able to meet the schedule," Xiao Xiongbing, deputy director of the consultation office with China's Association of Global Navigating Satellite Systems, told China Daily.
Building an indigenous navigation satellite system is considered to be important to a country's information security.
Song Xiaojun, a Beijing-based military expert, said that 90 percent of the world's current weapons systems need a global positioning system.


Russia completes deployment of global positioning satellites
English.news.cn 2011-10-08 02:43:20 FeedbackPrintRSS

MOSCOW, Oct. 7 (Xinhua) -- Russia has completed the deployment of its global positioning satellite group "Glonass", head of the Russian Space Agency Roscosmos Vladimir Popovkin said on Friday.

Glonass, the Russian equivalent of the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS), is designed for both military and civilian use. The system requires 24 operational and 2-3 reserve satellites in orbit to ensure global coverage.

"Today Russia's Glonass group is really global and ready at any moment to show (the user's) whereabouts....We completed the formation of the orbiting cluster with the launch of a Glonass-M satellite in early October." Popovkin told a meeting in the Russian State Duma, or the lower house of parliament,

"Now we will develop the system's land-based infrastructure, which will increase the Glonass precision to one meter from current five to six meters by 2015," he added.

Currently, there are 28 Glonass satellites in orbit -- 23 of them are operating, two are being put into service, and three are out for maintenance.

According to Popovkin, in the next few years, one of the priorities of the Roscosmos is to develop weather and communication satellites as well as the Earth's remote sounding.
201. DDR
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA


Really cool pic of India,many lights were lit in Trinidad and Guyana last night also.
202. DDR
1.7 inches of rain in Trinidad today,next month promises a bumpy ride with a peak in rainfall around mid-late November.
97 looked like it tried and failed today. There was a cloudtop image a bit back in the comments where it looked like it was pulling together and then the cloudtops scattered all over the place.

It doesn't have the benefits Rina did, it's a bit north of the tub (and Rina drained the tub anyway), and it's also moving 300 miles a day or so, as opposed to Rina's pointless drift.
NEW BLOG
hey looks like 97L is getting back on it feet should track simmilar to Rena but tracking further E also 850 vort has also increased pressures are low in the area and seem that a LLC is developing somewhere near 13N 80W
Quoting yqt1001:
Probably the fastest rise and fall I have ever seen...

96 hours ago:


72 hours ago:


48 hours ago:


24 hours ago:


Now:


Impressive!


Thanks for posting that. Yup, very fast rise and fall of Rina. Yucatan peninsula probably very happy about that. Let's hope they don't get drenched.


looks like another round of rain headed our way from ex97L, gettin too much of a good thing now! Wonder if ex97L will be reactivated , looking rather impressive this evening!