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Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2009

Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.

Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yup and only 1 model hasnt flip flopped to this degree

the ECMWF

we will see if that changes with the new run coming out soon


Ever since its extraordinary performance with Bill, I've been giving a lot of credence to the ECMWF. We'll see.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ever since its extraordinary performance with Bill, I've been giving a lot of credence to the ECMWF. We'll see.


yea same here, outside of the one model run that completely dropped development, it has been consistent in developing the system and bringing it northward
AL, 93, 2009102006, , BEST, 0, 126N, 351W, 20, 1009, DB,

93L is born

whoa wait lol, they put it on the area in the CATL, unless that is a mistake
well i'll see how this looks when i wake up. Though I doubt it will become a depression before Friday.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 93, 2009102006, , BEST, 0, 126N, 351W, 20, 1009, DB,

93L is born


well it is tomorrow. as suggested :P. onward to more blob watching.

nvm lol maybe is Grace BAP????
1006. xcool
yay 93
93L isnt our SW Caribbean disturbance, it is the area in the CATL

again unless they made a mistake
1008. xcool
DAM
00Z ECMWF takes a moderate system into south florida next Tuesday

shows the system weaker, but track still somewhat similar

so that is now 5 out of 6 that take it over Florida
1010. ackee
think SW carrb system willbe an invest sometime today
Current Information as of 0900 UTC
*Tropical Storm Neki (45 mph)
*Tropical Storm Rick (65 mph)
*Typhoon Lupit (110 mph/95 mph)
-Typhoon Lupit's sustained winds both in 1 minute and 10 minute sustained.
Good Morning.





Anybody notice that area between 20N, 30N, 40W, and 50W? Obvious sign of MJO uptick....
BahaHurican I do now and good morning also
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 20.4ºN 129.4ºE or 750 kms east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (105 kts) with gustiness up to 230 km/h (125 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Batanes Gr of Islands
2.Cagayan
3.Calayan Island
4.Babuyan Islands
5.Isabela

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.Apayao
4.Abra
5.Kalinga
6.Mt. Province
7.Benguet
8.La Union
9.Ifugao
10.Nueva Vizcaya
11.Quirino
12.Aurora
13.Northern Quezon
14.Polillo Island

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
1015. aquak9
G'morning WU-bloggers
we have an invest?
it's not what we
expected
Will we ever get some rest...
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VARYING
DEGREES OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SYSTEM TRACKING OVER OR NEAR FL. REMAINING GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HINTING A LITTLE MORE AT SUCH A SYSTEM NOW BUT AT A
MUCH SLOWER SPEED THAN ECMWF RUNS. EARLY PRELIM FCST MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS TPC/HPC COORDINATION THAT KEEPS ANY ACTIVITY
OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN THRU DAY 7 TUE.


HPC Preliminary Graphics
1017. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VARYING
DEGREES OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SYSTEM TRACKING OVER OR NEAR FL. REMAINING GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HINTING A LITTLE MORE AT SUCH A SYSTEM NOW BUT AT A
MUCH SLOWER SPEED THAN ECMWF RUNS. EARLY PRELIM FCST MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS TPC/HPC COORDINATION THAT KEEPS ANY ACTIVITY
OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN THRU DAY 7 TUE.


HPC Preliminary Graphics


7 days(LOL).

Will this blog survive 7 days of a spin in the NW Caribbean?
1018. aquak9
Hi ike...as if ericka did not cause us to lose all our hair. 7 days of slow development??

no, we can't handle it.
Good evening one and all.
Whats the latest on blob watch, oh and also TY Lupit? Has Lupit found his world map yet?
who will get the i?
1021. aquak9
g'morning auusie- was tuesday a good day?

I still have to live thru it, it's only 6:30am here.
1022. aquak9
Quoting leftovers:
who will get the i?


Ida'know...no one does.
Quoting IKE:


7 days(LOL).

Will this blog survive 7 days of a spin in the NW Caribbean?


It will, but get your stash of popcorn and sodas ready. If people would just use the ignore function between their ears and agree to disagree. I have seen it happen occasionally.
Quoting IKE:


7 days(LOL).

Will this blog survive 7 days of a spin in the NW Caribbean?


Well, at least it should keep "climate change" talk to a minimum on this blog.
1025. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It will, but get your stash of popcorn and sodas ready. If people would just use the ignore function between their ears and agree to disagree. I have seen it happen occasionally.


Headin to town this mornin. Will pick up a big stash of microwave popcorn.


Quoting tornadofan:


Well, at least it should keep "climate change" talk to a minimum on this blog.


You're right. Great news!
Good Morning

Blog Update

Atlantic tropics liven up
I suggest some of you go and read the blog from last night. The blog was very peaceful with a healthy discussion between myself, Drak and others and I feel with the admins monitoring the blog, there will not be any chaos over the next 5 or 7 days.
1028. RJT185
Morning!
Well here we go ! How strong a hurricane should we expect in South Fla ? Cat 2 or more ?

And I thought we'd escape this year.

I wish I could move to AZ.
1030. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS NICARAGUA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WILL ENTER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE MORNING AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED AND THE E CARIBBEAN LATE
THU.


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER SE U.S. WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC
THROUGH FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW GULF THU
EVENING AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
FRI MORNING AND FROM NW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT.
Will it be over 100 mph winds here in Miami ? I am in panic mode now. Guys please tell me is this going to be very strong ? I am sorry if I seem freaked but I hate these storms.....I have a phobia and can't travel or move (I suffer from agoraphobia) and these storms do the worst things to my disorder. Please folks don't put me on ignore but I am very, very stressed right now.
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS NICARAGUA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WILL ENTER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE MORNING AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED AND THE E CARIBBEAN LATE
THU.



lol, if the low moves northwest from its current position, it would be located just NE of Honduras/Nicaragua tip.
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning auusie- was tuesday a good day?

I still have to live thru it, it's only 6:30am here.

Was Tuesday a good day, well, not really. Almost got stuck in my car on my way to work due to back spasms. I am currently sitting on my butt at work.

I am preying that Lupit does what Parma did just before it got to the Philippines, have it's circulation disrupted by the high mountains of Northern Luzon.
nhc going with the nw crawl system is becoming better organized
Quoting leftovers:
nhc going with the nw crawl system is becoming better organized


Not good news, well at least for me it isn't. Seriously here in Miami should we expect CAT 2 or more winds ?
Quoting StormW:


Great...just what we need, more energy for the low in the Caribbean.


Great ? Not if you live in Miami. This is awful news.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Good Morning/evening Sir
Quoting Weather456:
BBL

Blog Update

Atlantic tropics liven up


thanks for the blog update
you'll have alot to worry about in 2012 andrew survivor save your worrying
1047. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Interesting how 00Z ECMWF speed up development into a sheared type system which is typical for this time of the year too.
Good morning everyone. Finally released from prison(24 hr ban) and can finally ask some questions. Any timeline for this to affect the Cayman Islands and can someone please give me an idea at what it is expected to be. TS or hurricane ?
1049. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. Finally released from prison(24 hr ban) and can finally ask some questions. Any timeline for this to affect the Cayman Islands and can someone please give me an idea at what it is expected to be. TS or hurricane ?


IF it were to develop, I would expect it to be a TD in the Carib. with a transition to a weak TS as it enters the SE GOM... but due to land interaction... I don't expect much.

Unless it somehow manages to intensify more than expected before it enters the SE GOM.

That's my take on it.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. Finally released from prison(24 hr ban) and can finally ask some questions. Any timeline for this to affect the Cayman Islands and can someone please give me an idea at what it is expected to be. TS or hurricane ?


Its all on my blog, time frame for u guys is 5 days, they maybe a bit sooner or later depending on what it does. At most for u guys, a TS, I'm conservative though, so monitor the situation.
Quoting WxLogic:


IF it were to develop, I would expect it to be a TD in the Carib. with a transition to a weak TS as it enters the SE GOM... but due to land interaction... I don't expect much.

Unless it somehow manages to intensify more than expected before it enters the SE GOM.

That's my take on it.
Thanks. Rapid intensification in the Caribbean is known to happen. Hope not but we are sure getting a lot of rain from it and it still is far off.
Quoting Weather456:


Its all on my blog, time frame for u guys is 5 days, they maybe a bit sooner or later depending on what it does. At most for u guys, a TS, I'm conservative though, so monitor the situation.
Thanks a million. I was thinking along those lines about time frame etc but since Paloma last year I am kinda on edge with that.
Quoting StormW:


Good evening Aussie.

All the info i have been reading on here during the last few days isn't making a pretty picture. I just hope Mr. Wind Shear keeps it in check.
1054. IKE
Shear rules....



1055. XL
Welcome back StormwatcherCI
Quoting XL:
Welcome back StormwatcherCI
Thanks. I have been following the discussion but couldn't post. Last night was great. Thanks very much 456, StormW and Drakoen. Very educational.
Quoting XL:
Welcome back StormwatcherCI
Have you been getting much rain in WB ?
Quoting IKE:
Shear rules....




but for how long?????
1060. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

1061. XL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Have you been getting much rain in WB ?


Plenty. Seems to have been raining a lot during the night again and around 4.30am we got some thunder.
I should be going off island next week - we'll see!
Quoting XL:


Plenty. Seems to have been raining a lot during the night again and around 4.30am we got some thunder.
I should be going off island next week - we'll see!
We had a lot up here too. Lots of thunder and lightning. Hope your trip goes well.
Current Weather Conditions:
San Andres Isla / Sesquicentenario, Colombia

(SKSP) 12-35N 081-43W 6M
Conditions at

2009.10.20 1100 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob SKSP 201100Z 09004KT 9999 FEW011 BKN070 27/25 A2974
1064. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

but for how long?????


At least for a couple of days.

By this weekend there may be more road blocks(shear), facing it.

My unprofessional opinion...this never amounts to more than a moderate tropical storm that faces on and off shear it's entire life.

There hasn't been a hurricane past 70W all season, in 142 days of it. I'll go with what that's telling me and say this won't be a cane either.
And now for something completely different...

The End of the World

They are seated, huddled, on the top of a mountain...


Jon : How will it be, this end of which you have spoken, Brother Enim?
Omnes: Yes, how will it be?
Peter : Well, it will be, as 'twere a mighty rending in the sky, you see, and the mountains shall sink, you see, and the valleys shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Jon : Will the veil of the temple be rent in twain?
Peter : The veil of the temple will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Alan : And will there be a mighty wind, Brother Enim?
Peter : Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by...
Dudley : And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the mountains of the earth?
Peter : No - it will not be quite as mighty as that - that is why we have come up on the mountain, you stupid nit - to be safe from it. Up here on the mountain we shall be safe - safe as houses.
Alan : And what will happen to the houses?
Peter : Well, naturally, the houses will be swept away and the tents of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the heavens and on earth - and serve them right!
Alan : And shall we be consumed?
Peter : Con..sum..éd? No, we shall not be consuméd - we shall be up on the mountain here, you see, while millions burn, having a bit of a giggle.
Jon : When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Omnes : Aye, when will it be - when will it be?
Peter : In about thirty seconds time, according to the ancient pyramidic scrolls... and my Ingersoll watch.
Jon : Shall we compose ourselves, then?
Peter : Good plan, Brother Pithy. Prepare for the End of the World! Fifteen seconds...
Alan : Have we got the tinned food?
Dudley : Yes.
Peter : Ten seconds...
Jon : And the tin-opener?
Dudley : Yes.
Peter : Five - four - three - two - one - Zero!
Omnes : (Chanting) Now is the end - Perish The World!
A pause

Peter : It was GMT, wasn't it?
Jon : Yes.
Peter : Well, it's not quite the conflagration I'd been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow... we must get a winner one day...
Quoting IKE:


At least for a couple of days.

By this weekend there may be more road blocks(shear), facing it.

My unprofessional opinion...this never amounts to more than a moderate tropical storm that faces on and off shear it's entire life.

There hasn't been a hurricane past 70W all season, in 142 days of it. I'll go with what that's telling me and say this won't be a cane either.

So it could just bring a bit of wind and plenty of rain, is that good or bad for an area in drought?
Quoting StormW:







I don't like that recipe ya got there Storm W. Need some more road blocks.
1071. beell
The best track for intensification would exclude FL. If we get something near 20N 80W moving NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

50-60 knot southern jet across the GOM next weekend from the SW across FL.
I don't think we can ignore the fact the heat content in the path of our SW Carribean disturbance. We've seen what can happen with a weak tropical storm under only marginal conditions. I keep watching StormW post those TCHP maps. He is doing that for a reason obviously. People definitely need to be aware.
AL 94 2009102012 BEST 0 125N 817W 25 1007 DB
It looks as if the system in the Caribbean my be moving West into the Yucatan. This would hender development. Steering would also suggest it would move that direction.
1076. amd
looks like the area of maximum lower level vorticity with the sw blob is just north of puerto limon, costa rica. Rough guess being 11.4 N 82.5 West

850 mb chart from cimss

However, what I find interesting is that the 500 mb maximum vorticity, however weak, is quite a bit inland in central America, which doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

500 mb vorticity inland over Nicaragua



2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST

East Pacific
20E.RICK

Central Pacific
03C.NEKI

West Pacific
93W.INVEST
22W.LUPIT
AL 94

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 81.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 236DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 81.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS Text
The Year of the Shear
sung to the tune of "The Year of the Cat"

On the morning of six one oh nine
In a country where the mets are fine
They saw El Nino freakin' like Peter Lore
Contemplating a crime

They came out of the sun from off Africa running
Generating a lot of rain
Bloggers asking for explanations
Why the canes never came
In the year of the shear.

Doc Masters answered all the questions
As storm after storm appeared
And we followed each one closely, would they get through this time
But each completely disappeared

By the blue tiled walls of the NHC stalls
There's a hidden door they'll show to you
These days, they're lounging and eating donuts
Just like a cop in Timbucktoo...
The year of the shear

Well, the sheer it does its work so cooly
Doesn't matter that the sun's on the sea
The sheer's relentless like a killer bee
MJO? Is it really trying to hide?
The year of the sheer

Mornings pass and its still out there
And most of the bloggers are gone
But you've thrown away your life and lost your marriage
So you have to stay on

But the drum-beat strains of El Nino remains
In the rhythm of the new-born day
You know sometime there's bound to be one
But for now they stay away
In the year of the shear
1081. 19N81W
system looks pretty disorganized this morning?
BAM suite says we're all wasting our time and runs it into CA.
1083. beell
Still an area to watch even if the current Invest moves ashore as forecast by the BAM's.

Conditions should remain more or less the same in the southern Caribbean.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
BAM suite says were all wasting our time and runs it into CA.


LOL - I see your point. However, it is not wasteful for someone who enjoys watching the weather and trying to predict the weather.
LBAR moves northward


AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 0 125N 817W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 12 130N 821W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 24 142N 826W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 36 156N 830W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 48 171N 833W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 60 185N 830W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 72 194N 827W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 84 202N 817W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 96 202N 813W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 108 207N 808W
AL 94 2009102012 03 LBAR 120 213N 806W
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
BAM suite says we're all wasting our time and runs it into CA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting P451:
ECMWF has changed drastically since yesterday. 72 to 240 hour loop.



That does not look good. How strong will the hurricane be ? As you see from my user name this is no joke to me. Please guys don't put me on ignore. I am scared crapless about these storms.
Quoting IKE:


At least for a couple of days.

By this weekend there may be more road blocks(shear), facing it.

My unprofessional opinion...this never amounts to more than a moderate tropical storm that faces on and off shear it's entire life.

There hasn't been a hurricane past 70W all season, in 142 days of it. I'll go with what that's telling me and say this won't be a cane either.


Please be right. I just can't deal with a hurricane right now. I am dealing with a lot of other stress (waiting for a cancer test to come back) and just don't need this in my life.
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


That does not look good. How strong will the hurricane be ? As you see from my user name this is no joke to me. Please guys don't put me on ignore. I am scared crapless about these storms.


Nothing we can say will make your fear go away. If it's really that bad and you're having trouble coping...there are always the two obvious options:

1) Therapy
2) Move
Quoting beell:
The best track for intensification would exclude FL. If we get something near 20N 80W moving NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

50-60 knot southern jet across the GOM next weekend from the SW across FL.


Sorry guys but I am a total amateur about all of this. Is that 50-60 knot good or bad for us in South Fla ? Please excuse my ignorance.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



I didnt say it was was going to move into Central America. I clearly said the BAM suite moves it into CA.

I believe that it'll move slowly North over the next 4-5 days.
Insensitive horse's ass...
Mike need to wait for dynamic models i.e; GFDL/HWRF later today. Thing could drift into central america but i think thats becoming unlikely.
You can beat cancer...and you can outrun a hurricane...I've done both...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I didnt say it was was going to move into Central America. I clearly said the BAM suite moves it into CA.

I believe that it'll move slowly North over the next 4-5 days.
ok, my bad. I misunderstood you .
Quoting CycloneOz:


Nothing we can say will make your fear go away. If it's really that bad and you're having trouble coping...there are always the two obvious options:

1) Therapy
2) Move


Moving is not an option, or I would, trust me. For a number of reasons, including panic attacks when I leave my home, travel anywhere is a virtual no-no. Therapy is not as easy to come by as you might think it is, especially if you don't have medical insurance because you work for yourself, and can't afford $ 600 a month for insurance.
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


That does not look good. How strong will the hurricane be ? As you see from my user name this is no joke to me. Please guys don't put me on ignore. I am scared crapless about these storms.
I understand your fear having gone through Ivan in Grand Cayman but letting it stress you out is not a good thing. If you are really afraid when the time comes call for someone to help you move to a shelter where you won't be alone and they have professionals who can help you deal with it.
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


Moving is not an option, or I would, trust me. For a number of reasons, including panic attacks when I leave my home, travel anywhere is a virtual no-no. Therapy is not as easy to come by as you might think it is, especially if you don't have medical insurance because you work for yourself, and can't afford $ 600 a month for insurance.
If you don't feel able to leave your home then call for someone to come be with you. Don't face it alone. Nothing wrong with being afraid.
Quoting presslord:
You can beat cancer...and you can outrun a hurricane...I've done both...


Not if you have a panic disorder that is all about leaving home (agorophobia). I can't go more than a few blocks from my home without a severe panic attack.
1102. Patrap
IR Loop

And riding out a big hurricane doesn't induce panic?
1104. Patrap
There is no threat to anyone from anything at this time,nor is any forecasted.
Belay any talk of any evacuations,.

First rule always,IGNORE rumor and Disaster casters.

Always
what are the possibilities of 94L Affecting South Florida next week everyone thought the season was over
Quoting Patrap:
There is no threat to anyone from anything at this time,nor is any forecasted.
Belay any talk of any evacuations,.

First rule always,IGNORE rumor and Disaster casters.

Always



actuaslly Pat...that's not true...

...my spouse is threatening to kill me if I don't go to this silly Living Rosary thing at church tonight...

Can I come live with you?
Good morning

I just took a look at the Quikscat pass and there is not even a hint of a surface low where 94L is supposed to be.
1108. Patrap
94L Computer runs,WU

Oh, brother...
1110. Patrap
Quoting presslord:



actuaslly Pat...that's not true...

...my spouse is threatening to kill me if I don't go to this silly Living Rosary thing at church tonight...

Can I come live with you?


We have room,Dinner is always at 7 cdt,..and you have to make your bed every morning too
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I understand your fear having gone through Ivan in Grand Cayman but letting it stress you out is not a good thing. If you are really afraid when the time comes call for someone to help you move to a shelter where you won't be alone and they have professionals who can help you deal with it.


Thanks for understanding. Yes I am letting it stress me out, but its part of the affliction, the "what if" thinking....the anticipatory anxiety. I overthink myself into panic. When I read the blog this morning I went into panic mode....heart started palpatating & breathing started hyper-ventalating. Its not fun.

When I was a kid I used to beg for a hurricane, and of course that was during the great drought of storms here in So Fla (I was born in Miami in 1960). But that all ended in 1992 when I was in Cutler Ridge stuck in my townhome during Hurricane Andrew, all alone except for my 14 year old dog Junior. I survived by putting a mattress over my head (and Junior) and hugging the base of the downstairs commode for 4 hours while a CAT 5 hurricane roared around me. I had no 2nd floor when it was over, and no furniture in my house, every window blown out, doors blown out, and north wall collapsed. It was the most horrifying and freigtening experience one could imagine.

This is why I get so excited (panic type) when I see anything about a storm. And this one could hit us and be a CAT 4 or 5 like Wilma or Andrew. Sorry to be a mess on here but its scary for people like me. Folks please understand.
1112. tacoman
one reason is because there is no surface low out there right now...people you are getting excited over nothing...just take a few deep breaths and calm down...you guys havent seen rain before gee...
Quoting Patrap:


We have room,Dinner is always at 7 cdt,..and you have to make your bed every morning too


sounds fair
We do...
Storm, what do you make of the QS pass ?
1117. tacoman
very good info storm ...i hope they listen to what you say..tacoman
1118. tacoman
the shear down there is still strong i can assure you nothing will develop in the next 48 hours...lots of rain thats it...tacoman
1119. Patrap
Quoting StormW:


Agree...it's only an INVEST right now folks. Another thing to keep in mind...do you think any of us would let anyone here be in harms way? Trust me...if and when the time comes...there are plenty of us here that will steer you in the right direction for OFFICIAL word.


G morning Chief Walsh,thats a good fact to remind folks.
When the Danger develops,one will know it here.

Plenty of good minds and knowledgeable folks around here who can disseminate the forecast. and trends.

Quoting Patrap:
There is no threat to anyone from anything at this time,nor is any forecasted.
Belay any talk of any evacuations,.

First rule always,IGNORE rumor and Disaster casters.

Always


I hope you are right, but someone here said a moderate to strong system, and I am not even sure what that means,....does it mean moderate as in CAT 1 hurricane or maybe just a Tropical Storm ? Please explain if possible.
Quoting StormW:


Agree...it's only an INVEST right now folks. Another thing to keep in mind...do you think any of us would let anyone here be in harms way? Trust me...if and when the time comes...there are plenty of us here that will steer you in the right direction for OFFICIAL word.


I appreciate that StormW. I just can't help myself sometimes. I let the disorder get the best of me.
1123. beell
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


Sorry guys but I am a total amateur about all of this. Is that 50-60 knot good or bad for us in South Fla ? Please excuse my ignorance.


That would be good for FL. Upper level conditions as modeled for increasing storm organization would be to your east and southeast. Across Central Cuba and the Bahamas.

We're still a long way out and there is not much to track yet-just a guess.
1124. tacoman
if there is something down there its very very weak...the conditions down there now are just not condusive for any low pressure to develop for at least another 48-72 hours...tacoman
My local forecast for my area for anyone interested. It is from 8:00PM last night so it's like 12 hours old.



Finally back to averages after a cold outbreak last weekend.
I know that 94L(Ida) will probably be the season's last storm. I wonder what the 2010 season would be like with a neutral?
1127. ackee
94L keep us all guess what the chance it just moves into CA
Back later.
1130. ackee
94L will track similar to Michelle did 2001 but lot weaker
1131. IKE
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


Please be right. I just can't deal with a hurricane right now. I am dealing with a lot of other stress (waiting for a cancer test to come back) and just don't need this in my life.


I'm not a professional...just a blogger.

Looks rather disorganized this morning.

Good luck on your cancer test. I just went for lab work to check my kidneys...$363.50 worth of tests.
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


Thanks for understanding. Yes I am letting it stress me out, but its part of the affliction, the "what if" thinking....the anticipatory anxiety. I overthink myself into panic. When I read the blog this morning I went into panic mode....heart started palpatating & breathing started hyper-ventalating. Its not fun.

When I was a kid I used to beg for a hurricane, and of course that was during the great drought of storms here in So Fla (I was born in Miami in 1960). But that all ended in 1992 when I was in Cutler Ridge stuck in my townhome during Hurricane Andrew, all alone except for my 14 year old dog Junior. I survived by putting a mattress over my head (and Junior) and hugging the base of the downstairs commode for 4 hours while a CAT 5 hurricane roared around me. I had no 2nd floor when it was over, and no furniture in my house, every window blown out, doors blown out, and north wall collapsed. It was the most horrifying and freigtening experience one could imagine.

This is why I get so excited (panic type) when I see anything about a storm. And this one could hit us and be a CAT 4 or 5 like Wilma or Andrew. Sorry to be a mess on here but its scary for people like me. Folks please understand.
I tuly do understand. I grew up in Miami but moved away in 1973. My parents lived in the Kendall area during Andrew. Fortunately, they received minor damage but devastation was all around. My father worked with the Dade County FD and was out within hours after Andrew. I came up the following year and Miami was still a huge mess.
AndrewSurvicor-totally undertsand. Lived that horrid night in West Kendall.
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


I appreciate that StormW. I just can't help myself sometimes. I let the disorder get the best of me.
You have come to the right place for any information you might need. Do not let the threat of whatever get you into panic mode. Just relax and take it easy. The good folks on here with help you through this and like I said if you feel the need call for someone to be with you.
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


I appreciate that StormW. I just can't help myself sometimes. I let the disorder get the best of me.
You have come to the right place for any information you might need. Do not let the threat of whatever get you into panic mode. Just relax and take it easy. The good folks on here with help you through this and like I said if you feel the need call for someone to be with you.
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You have come to the right place for any information you might need. Do not let the threat of whatever get you into panic mode. Just relax and take it easy. The good folks on here with help you through this and like I said if you feel the need call for someone to be with you.
Sorry about the double post but having some problems with the internet connection this am
Re: Conditions in the Cayman Islands/Flooding brings misery to residents after heavy rain
Posted on Mon, 10/19/2009 - 21:50 in Local News

(CNS): With over seven inches of rain in the last twenty-four hours, many of Grand Cayman’s residents are now suffering from severe flooding and are trapped in their homes. Those living in the swamp area of George Town told News 27 that they feel they have been neglected by government as every time the island experiences heavy rain their lives come to a standstill. With at least another four inches predicted over the next 24 hours, flooding misery is set to continue for many living in low lying areas with poor drainage.
1144. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Now to look at the forest within which these trees are cropping up.

MJO has made a move in our direction and GFS is not being friendly with the forecast...

1146. Grothar
Quoting Grothar:


Looks as if our umlauts don't translate on the blog. If you ever have a chance to go to any Scandinavian country, you should. The fjords are an unforgettable sight in Norway. Sweden is also spectacular. People are under the impression that they are always covered in snow, which is not the case. Actually, Norway's climate on the coastal regions are quite mild because of the Gulfstream. Surprisingly so. The countries have the highest standards of living in all of Europe and they are all quite beautiful.