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Rick Knabb takes over as director of NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2012

Today marks the first day of work for the National Hurricane Center's new director--Dr. Rick Knabb, who worked at NHC from 2005 - 2008 as a senior hurricane forecaster before leaving in 2008 to take a position as deputy director and director of operations of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and NWS Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii. Dr. Knabb left Hawaii to take a position as The Weather Channel's hurricane expert in 2010, where he worked until May of this year. He thus brings a unique mix of NHC experience, managerial experience, and experience communicating to the public on-camera, to the NHC director's job. He will fit in very comfortably with the NHC staff, and should make an excellent NHC director. Knabb, 43, is the second youngest director of NHC. Only Neil Frank, who served as director from 1973 - 1987, was younger at the time he took the job.

Dr. Knabb takes over the directorship of NHC from Bill Read. Read took the post of NHC director in 2008 after Bill Proenza stepped down following a stormy six-month tenure where much of staff revolted against him. In the wake of the turmoil stirred up by Proenza, Read brought stability to the Hurricane Center. Read's management ability, easy-going style, and solid communication skills made Read an excellent choice for director of NHC, and he will be missed. “I will have been in charge just shy of four and a half years on June 1,” Read wrote in a letter to hurricane center staff earlier this year. “I had no idea I would ever be considered for such an honor. It’s been quite a ride and I’m blessed to hit the exit ramp in my career after working with you all.” Read was lucky enough in his four-year tenure at NHC to never oversee a landfalling major hurricane in the U.S.

National Hurricane Center Directors:
Gordon Dunn, 1965 - 1967
Robert Simpson, 1967 - 1973
Neil Frank, 1973 - 1987
Bob Sheets, 1987 - 1995
Robert Burpee, 1995 - 1997
Jerry Jarrell, 1998 - 2000
Max Mayfield, 2000 - 2007
Bill Proenza, January - July, 2007
Ed Rappaport (interim), July 2007 - January 2008
Bill Read, 2008 - 2012
Rick Knabb, 2012 - ????

It looks like Dr. Knabb will have a quiet first week on the job--there are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

If you read legislation recently passed, you will see in print what I'm referring to. Jesse Ventura has a video on it. Government wouldn't let it be played on Conspiracy Theory, his show. Can easily google it and watch it. Or you can look up said legislation and read it yourself. Not only is the populous oblivious to it, the elected officials signing it often don't read it. In a code red FEMA is way more than the kid who can't stay upright on his bike. I would give you the bill number but this is so easy to seek and find yourselves. Seek just a little, if your right atl then I'm just a quack. If not, then maybe it's time to dig a little deeper.
This is a very large severe thunder watch box..
Quoting dogsgomoo:


It's all fun and games until someone gets eaten by a zombie.



The scary thing is when fully functional human beings mimic zombies, people freak out about the concept of zombies, but living human beings acting like them are much more terrifying.
BBL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The RAP is supposed to a crap model from what I've heard. It seems that RUC was better, which is really saying something.

The NAM doesn't have instability quite as high as the GFS, but it is still more than sufficient.

Who the hell said that? And what's the reasoning behind that assessment?
Quoting ncstorm:
Isnt that GOM blob the same blob that Wunderkid was talking about and the naysayers were shooting him down?


Lol. This is too funny.
Watch your language.


Its explicit in the TOA and The Rules of the road.

.3 Foul language is not allowed.

Community Standards
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A look at the Eastern Atlantic.





That moisture indicates less sal this year than past years at this time.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Who the hell said that? And what's the reasoning behind that assessment?


I have found the RAP to be quite useful actually. I liked the RUC as well. HRRR and NAM are what I usually use for short range severe weather forecasts.

Quoting ncstorm:


I saw the most funniest youtube video of a zombie prank in Miami..hilarious!



lol, yeah and people are freaking out about a "zombie apocalypse" to the point where people almost seems serious about it. It shows you what happens when people get too caught up into the fantasy world of movies and video games and start thinking certain things of pure fantasy are actually possible in the real world.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Who the hell said that? And what's the reasoning behind that assessment?

Lol, various storm chasers and meteorology students I know. They're saying it over-exaggerates parameters.
I've heard Neil Frank speak. I was disappointed and felt a bit sad for the guy. He was quite bitter about his role as a TV weatherman and at that time (around 1990) wished he was back at NHC. He has always been charismatic, but I was surprised at how outspoken he was about his regrets. I would have expected someone with his administrative credentials to have been more discreet. He talked some about ozone depletion when I heard him. He gave a pseudo-science reason why chlorofluorocarbons could not reach the stratosphere. "The molecules are too big."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Various storm chasers and meteorology students I know. They're saying it over-exaggerates parameters.



lol and they are right because it often does
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea but the oldtimers are uneducated and not up to speed with science.....like Neil Frank. See there's not science to back that up. Therefore it must be thrown out. Todays "experts" (lmao) they believe more in computers and modeling to back up their beliefs. And as this happens, Man is doomed. There's things in this world you know by other means, but everyone fails to pick up on it.


The science is there, it's actually really old and well established. A sub-field of Chronobiology. Now if you mean the specific field research for that species isn't there then yeah, probably. But that's usually due to a lack of funds/interest/resources for the field research rather than experts saying it's "old timers talkin' nonsense about the bugs again."

Though, too much reliance on modeling and not enough field research does have a negative impact on the sciences and understanding. That's for sure.
Aww, look at the cute little Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV)!

A chasers' best friend

SPC Mesoanalysis
Quoting washingtonian115:
Fart....

O.o
this is my first time I have ever seen a svr-tsm box for idaho and montana..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Aww, look at the cute little Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV)!


We should name it!
thanks for the help earlier dogsgomoo in getting Bob the correct speech, you rock
Quoting Articuno:

O.o
this is my first time I have ever seen a svr-tsm box for idaho and montana..


If I remember correctly, there were several last year, and even a few tornado watches.







Another example
Quoting Jedkins01:




I don't know, there have been other freak cases lately too... Granted drugs are involved but there are a lot of people doing strange drugs and most of them don't do anything like that. There is more than meets the eye I believe and some things that can't be answered by modern science and are a bit beyond human comprehension...


Amen To That!!
Quoting Jedkins01:



lol, yeah and people are freaking out about a "zombie apocalypse" to the point where people almost seems serious about it. It shows you what happens when people get too caught up into the fantasy world of movies and video games and start thinking certain things of pure fantasy are actually possible in the real world.


well when you had recent stories of florida people eating one another and the next thing you know when you are playing basketball, here comes some zombie, reasoning escapes and running ensues..that video cracked me up..it had over 1,200,000 views when I saw it..
Hey guys, if you live around the west coast of Florida, I wouldn't be surprise to see some of us getting at least 2 to 4 inches between Wednesday and Friday, and possibly even more than that. All of Central Florida looks good for heavy rainfall but these types of events often do favor particularly high totals near the coast.

The rain season is here, it just isn't the way we often think of as classic Florida wet season weather. However, its been like this for 5 to 7 years now so get used to it I guess, as long as we get plenty of heavy rain and thunderstorms I'm happy, regardless of how we get it and what it's cause is.

I'll admit the classic sea breeze stuff is very exciting but its better to get a lot of rain then none at all.


Just based on what models are showing combined with my experience with similar events in the past tell me we are going to get some serious rainfall and very well needed at that.
Quoting redwagon:

FWIW, Texas Sage has been blooming like crazy the last week or so, oldtimers say they sense big rain coming so they flower out to get pollinated before the bugs get washed away.

Then there's the competing theory that they flower two weeks after a big rain to attract what pollinating bugs that didn't get washed away :)


Better start building the Arc!
Quoting Articuno:

We should name it!


MCV Able (Name MCVs after military phonetic alphabet)
Just my thoughts -___-
Quoting ncstorm:


well when you had recent stories of florida people eating one another and the next thing you know when you are playing basketball, here comes some zombie, reasoning escapes and running ensues..that video cracked me up..it had over 1,200,000 views when I saw it..



lol no I understand how someone could be scarred by that, I'm talking about the fact that people around the country are having seemingly serious conversations of an actual zombie apocalypse occurring...
.
Wow


Quoting Tribucanes:
If you read legislation recently passed, you will see in print what I'm referring to. Jesse Ventura has a video on it. Government wouldn't let it be played on Conspiracy Theory, his show. Can easily google it and watch it. Or you can look up said legislation and read it yourself. Not only is the populous oblivious to it, the elected officials signing it often don't read it. In a code red FEMA is way more than the kid who can't stay upright on his bike. I would give you the bill number but this is so easy to seek and find yourselves. Seek just a little, if your right atl then I'm just a quack. If not, then maybe it's time to dig a little deeper.


Tribu - I just checked with my friend who works in the US-TFHD. (Yes, I know you haven't heard of them and they will keep it that way).

They've already got your on their scope, you were an easy track-back. Go ahead and post links, you can't get yourself in any deeper doodoo than you already are.

Visibility-cloaked micro drones.

Worry....
Quoting Tribucanes:
How bout the guy in Germany who posted for someone to come and let him kill and eat them. Thousands posted if I remember correctly. He went through with it and the German officials didn't have laws on the books to arrest him. His "victim" gave consent. He was later arrested and I believe still in jail. But thousands applied????? Really we are a messy bunch. Real life zombie, not cool either. What's next?



come on, brother, remember that humans are "evolving" ;)

Quoting Jedkins01:
Hey guys, if you live around the west coast of Florida, I wouldn't be surprise to see some of us getting at least 2 to 4 inches between Wednesday and Friday, and possibly even more than that. All of Central Florida looks good for heavy rainfall but these types of events often do favor particularly high totals near the coast.

The rain season is here, it just isn't the way we often think of as classic Florida wet season weather. However, its been like this for 5 to 7 years now so get used to it I guess, as long as we get plenty of heavy rain and thunderstorms I'm happy, regardless of how we get it and what it's cause is.

I'll admit the classic sea breeze stuff is very exciting but its better to get a lot of rain then none at all.


Just based on what models are showing combined with my experience with similar events in the past tell me we are going to get some serious rainfall and very well needed at that.
Its called the rainY season Jed, not the rain season...geez what is the world coming too......
Hydrus, could you link that instead of posting it as an image? It slowed my connection way down so I know it's giving those with an already slow connection a hard time accessing the blog.
Quoting Jedkins01:



lol no I understand how someone could be scarred by that, I'm talking about the fact that people around the country are having seemingly serious conversations of an actual zombie apocalypse occurring...


I saw where people were purchasing underground shelters for the December event..as I said last night, people will believe anything..when you got movies and shows showing a zombie apocalypse, unfortunately you will have weak minded people taking it all in..I know the CDC gets a zombie inquiry question at least every week now..
Ryan Maue just retweeted this. Lolz.

Nicole Mitchell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hydrus, could you link that instead of posting it as an image? It slowed my connection way down so I know it's giving those with an already slow connection a hard time accessing the blog.
i have no problems with my high speed dsl
Too much Woo

too few

WU
OMG, I forgot about her, what happened?

Quoting RitaEvac:
Wow


its getting closer Rita for sure
Well Bob I ain't hiding, just using my first amendment rights. I sincerely hope your kidding, but if not than what will be will be. If I don't comment in the coming days then you all will know too. So I've informed many loved ones of these threats Bob.
Mawar remains at 85 kts according to the JTWC, but it appears to be starting extratropical transition

(click to enlarge)
Quoting dogsgomoo:


The science is there, it's actually really old and well established. A sub-field of Chronobiology. Now if you mean the specific field research for that species isn't there then yeah, probably. But that's usually due to a lack of funds/interest/resources for the field research rather than experts saying it's "old timers talkin' nonsense about the bugs again."

Though, too much reliance on modeling and not enough field research does have a negative impact on the sciences and understanding. That's for sure.

The models get better as our observation techniques improve. GIGO. Long live the new GFS!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hydrus, could you link that instead of posting it as an image? It slowed my connection way down so I know it's giving those with an already slow connection a hard time accessing the blog.
awww mmaannnn
Quoting BobWallace:


Tribu - I just checked with my friend who works in the US-TFHD. (Yes, I know you haven't heard of them and they will keep it that way).

They've already got your on their scope, you were an easy track-back. Go ahead and post links, you can't get yourself in any deeper doodoo than you already are.

Visibility-cloaked micro drones.

Worry....

Thats a crap post, Bob.
You feeling OK ?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Hey guys, if you live around the west coast of Florida, I wouldn't be surprise to see some of us getting at least 2 to 4 inches between Wednesday and Friday, and possibly even more than that. All of Central Florida looks good for heavy rainfall but these types of events often do favor particularly high totals near the coast.

The rain season is here, it just isn't the way we often think of as classic Florida wet season weather. However, its been like this for 5 to 7 years now so get used to it I guess, as long as we get plenty of heavy rain and thunderstorms I'm happy, regardless of how we get it and what it's cause is.

I'll admit the classic sea breeze stuff is very exciting but its better to get a lot of rain then none at all.


Just based on what models are showing combined with my experience with similar events in the past tell me we are going to get some serious rainfall and very well needed at that.
How about we go for a foot of rain so I can paddle my way over to your house? :~P
Quoting LargoFl:

Post 547.
Nice little T-Wave coming in.....
....................Almost Here
Quoting pottery:

Post 547.
Nice little T-Wave coming in.....
sure is, almost here
My thoughts on Neil Frank and his views. I don't agree with them, but at least he's a scientist tangentially related to the climate. My feeling is that the actions taken are ultimately decided by a preporderance of what scientists in the field hypothesize...and they currently lean 95% one-way.
.
I do have a problem with laymen imposing their interpretation of the data, as we have paid posters on both sides.
.
Lastly, on the zombies....there has been an unusual amount of reported activity of late. I ascribe it mainly to the drugs that are apparently legal over the counter, they're potentially deadly or psychosis inducing...DO NOT TRY. That and maybe the zombies seen more frequently in current movies or video games....years ago we didn't have video games and zombies were rarely seen in movies. But when they were, now that I think about it, they preferred a hotter climate(hmmm).
RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

...LATEST BEACH REPORTS FROM THE SUNCOAST DO NOT INDICATE MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ039-042-048>050-042030-
/O.CAN.KTBW.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-120605T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-
320 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN HAS CANCELLED
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
pottery,a closer view of wave. For sure you will get the core of it.

Quoting CosmicEvents:
My thoughts on Neil Frank and his views. I don't agree with them, but at least he's a scientist tangentially related to the climate. My feeling is that the actions taken ultimately decided by a preporderance of what scientists in the field hypothesize...and they currently lean 95% one-way.
.
I do have a problem with laymen imposing their interpretation of the data. I question their sincerity, as we have paid posters on both sides.
.
Lastly, on the zombies....there has been an unusual amount of reported activity of late. I ascribe it mainly to the drugs that are apparently legal over the counter, they're potentially deadly or psychosis inducing...DO NOT TRY. That and maybe the zombies seen more frequently in current movies or video games....years ago we didn't have video games and zombies were rarely seen in movies. But when they were, now that I think about it, they preferred a hotter climate(hmmm).

Poll...
Do you think that zombies will become more prevalent as the Climate Heats up?

A- Shirley.
B- Mebbe
C- Fershur.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
pottery,a closer view of wave.


Thanks.
was looking at it earlier on the loops.
Should be here tomorrow midday.
Quoting pottery:

Post 547.
Nice little T-Wave coming in.....

Yep.

Maybe zombies AND zombie impressionists both prefer warmer climates ;)

Man Dressed as Zombie Chases Miami Residents
Quoting pottery:

Poll...
Do you think that zombies will become more prevalent as the Climate Heats up?

A- Shirley.
B- Mebbe
C- Fershur.


LOL!! if this blog has anything to do with it..A
Looks like moderate coastal flooding as well as significant beach erosion is in store for much of the Northeast coast tonight due to the high astronomical tides.
Quoting pottery:

Poll...
Do you think that zombies will become more prevalent as the Climate Heats up?

A- Shirley.
B- Mebbe
C- Fershur.
C--Abraham Lincoln is going to kill them! There is a new DVD out that has him wiping out Zombies!
In 8 years I've never given an answer to a poll. I find them juvenille and of no added value. But, in this case, I have to go with....A. Shirley!
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL!! if this blog has anything to do with it..A
They have already taken over Boston
http://bostinno.com/2011/05/30/zombie-march-in-bo ston/
Quoting pottery:

Thats a crap post, Bob.
You feeling OK ?


No. My feet are a bit cold at the moment.

Guess I should put on some socks....
Quoting LargoFl:


That trough at 144 hours out catches my attention, although I will be in Tennessee for the summer by then. Could be an active week next week for the Northern and Central Plains.
Quoting LargoFl:
....................Almost Here


GOM looks different from a week ago, moistening real good!
Quoting tornadodude:


That trough at 144 hours out catches my attention, although I will be in Tennessee for the summer by then. Could be an active week next week for the Northern and Central Plains.
yes we shall see
Quoting stormpetrol:


GOM looks different from a week ago, moistening real good!
yes alot out there for sure,this week is going to get interesting
Quoting tornadodude:


That trough at 144 hours out catches my attention, although I will be in Tennessee for the summer by then. Could be an active week next week for the Northern and Central Plains.

The SPC thinks so

Quoting stormpetrol:


GOM looks different from a week ago, moistening real good!

hey we should keep an eye on that Tropical Wave that is going to enter the E caribbean soon could bring us some good showers
..............................getting a bit windy over on the east coast of Florida
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey we should keep an eye on that Tropical Wave that is going to enter the E caribbean soon could bring us some good showers
when it gets here, water temps are in the mid 80's
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The SPC thinks so



Oh nice!

I would love to chase up in North Dakota
Quoting tornadodude:


That trough at 144 hours out catches my attention, although I will be in Tennessee for the summer by then. Could be an active week next week for the Northern and Central Plains.
What part of Tennessee T.D..I live on the plateau in Middle TN..
all the Atlantic basin is really moist ,And the MJO is not even here. Imagine if it was here maybe the wave that is entering the lesser Antilles would had a chance of development.
18z GFS shows a very weak system in the Gulf at 288 hours

Quoting ncstorm:


LOL!! if this blog has anything to do with it..A
yes,we havee already seen evidence with the miami face consumption. Also, there will be less squatch activity.
Quoting LargoFl:
when it gets here, water temps are in the mid 80's

when it get here conditions may permit some sort of development I say sometime by next week going into weekend
Quoting hydrus:
What part of Tennessee T.D..I live on the plateau in Middle TN..



hey man

I will be near Knoxville. In between there and Gatlinburg at a campground for the summer.
A brief off-topic note.

Tomorrow at this time Venus will be transiting the sun for only the seventh time since human's first documented the event in the 1600's.

For safe viewing and other information please visit this site.
Link

Here in the Florida Keys, the cloud cover outlook is not good.
Link

Guess I might have to wait until 2117 for the next one ;>)

- take care - Rod
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/data/satellit e/ 20120604_1955_sm_MGM_vis.jpg

some nice clouds out and a rotating mcv in arkansas.
Quoting pottery:

Poll...
Do you think that zombies will become more prevalent as the Climate Heats up?

A- Shirley.
B- Mebbe
C- Fershur.


The moon is full tonight!

Fershur!! LOL
Quoting hydrus:
Its called the rainY season Jed, not the rain season...geez what is the world coming too......



Hey I call it whatever I want :)
Fwiw GFS in 276 hours..
Quoting GTcooliebai:
How about we go for a foot of rain so I can paddle my way over to your house? :~P



hahaha that would be awesome, I'd love to see a foot of rain, it's been a while since I've seen that much rain in one event.
Looks like we will have something in the Gulf of Mexico by June 15th. Take a look at this tropical weather discussion. Link
Quoting tornadodude:



hey man

I will be near Knoxville. In between there and Gatlinburg at a campground for the summer.
Very nice..There is a lot to do in the summer for sure..If you have not been there already, check out Fall Creek Fall..It is awesome.
Quoting hydrus:
Very nice..There is a lot to do in the summer for sure..If you have not been there already, check out Fall Creek Fall..It is awesome.


Will do!

Storms coming off the mountains in Montana are beginning to rotate. My friend Jesse Risley is up there chasing, check out his live chase cam!

Live Chase Cam
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, various storm chasers and meteorology students I know. They're saying it over-exaggerates parameters.
Which ones specifically? Convective parameters like CAPE?

Let me know if you find any actual studies done to test the error differences between the two. From what I've read, they spent a lot of time developing the new version and found ways to integrate more data and data from other sources. Also found a report that showed wind, temperature, and humidity errors throughout the atmosphere have decreased from the RUC to the RR. Obviously it's only been operational for a little while so results right now might not show much, but I am doubtful that an upgrade would make the model worse than before.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Which ones specifically? Convective parameters like CAPE?

Let me know if you find any actual studies done to test the error differences between the two. From what I've read, they spent a lot of time developing the new version and found ways to integrate more data and data from other sources. Also found a report that showed wind, temperature, and humidity errors throughout the atmosphere have decreased from the RUC to the RR. Obviously it's only been operational for a little while so results right now might not show much, but I am doubtful that an upgrade would make the model worse than before.

CAPE was a big one, yeah.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CAPE was a big one, yeah.


If someone relies solely on one model for his forecast, then that person is an idiot Lol

The RAP is an improvement from the RUC. The RUC was notorious for over doing CAPE and EHI. The RAP is more in line. Also, the RUC was limited to only 12 hours, whereas the RAP can forecast out to 18 hours.
So when will we see the next system? It's kind of quiet.
Quoting whs2012:
So when will we see the next system? It's kind of quiet.


more than likely there wont be one for another 2 weeks
18Z NOGAPS--takes it across the panhandle and to the SE atlantic



And whatever happened to StormW? It's been a while since I've been on here.
Quoting whs2012:
And whatever happened to StormW? It's been a while since I've been on here.


he been bannd
Quoting whs2012:
So when will we see the next system? It's kind of quiet.

I think we'll get it between June 15 and June 20.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS shows a very weak system in the Gulf at 288 hours



TA13 called it.

he said the 18z would be in the atlantic basin
That's unfortunate, thanks guys!
Quoting whs2012:
That's unfortunate, thanks guys!


Yeah, he just couldnt seem to find his, err, footing.
Quoting ncstorm:




wont happen heres why



40 knot wind shear

Bob breck just said this
Quoting weatherh98:


wont happen heres why



40+ knot wind shear


you mean to tell me that 50kt shear in the Gulf isnt conducive for tropical development? Say it ain't so.
Quoting tornadodude:


you mean to tell me that 50kt shear in the Gulf isnt conducive for tropical development? Say it ain't so.


Its not conducive
239 N3EG: Yes, a reminder on how how Bill Proenza was "QuikSCATted"...

And the reason why I do not greet Knabb's arrival in office with applause.
Quoting tornadodude:


you mean to tell me that 50kt shear in the Gulf isnt conducive for tropical development? Say it ain't so.


it ain't so.
.
Quoting weatherh98:


wont happen heres why



40 knot wind shear

Bob breck just said this

Who's Bob Breck?
Quoting docrod:
A brief off-topic note.

Tomorrow at this time Venus will be transiting the sun for only the seventh time since human's first documented the event in the 1600's.

For safe viewing and other information please visit this site.
Link

Here in the Florida Keys, the cloud cover outlook is not good.
Link

Guess I might have to wait until 2117 for the next one ;>)

- take care - Rod



This low out of MX is forecast to give us rain for 4-5 days... and shirley after that something will spin up in the GOM or WCB next week and after a long drought we'll be Floodin' Down in Texas again....
Quoting tornadodude:


you mean to tell me that 50kt shear in the Gulf isnt conducive for tropical development? Say it ain't so.


it ain't so.
Quoting weatherh98:


wont happen heres why



40 knot wind shear

Bob breck just said this


how long is that wind shear forecast? the next Three days or three hours because the models dont start developing it until thursday
Wow, blog hole.
Quoting weatherh98:


Its not conducive



Clearly :p
Quoting bappit:
LinkUnmanned Drones to Fly into Hurricanes


I read about the cat thing earlier....kinda awkward....or really awkward.
Quoting bappit:
LinkUnmanned Drones to Fly into Hurricanes



lmao!!!!!!!
That is crazy and kind of ridiculous but still funny
Quoting ncstorm:


how long is that shear forecast..over the next three days or 3 hours because the models dont try to develop it until thursday


thats current shear
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who's Bob Breck?


: O

THE BOB BRECK
Incredible structure in Montana on my friend Jesse's livestream.

Check it out!
Quoting bappit:
LinkUnmanned Drones to Fly into Hurricanes



Picture of the day!
Quoting redwagon:



This low out of MX is forecast to give us rain for 4-5 days... and shirley after that something will spin up in the GOM or WCB next week and after a long drought we'll be Floodin' Down in Texas again....


I hope you are right. Things seem to be heading that way.. We haven't had a widespread flood since Allison. Seems like we are due for one
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow, blog hole.


where
Quoting weatherh98:


thats current shear


exactly..it aint happening tonight:)
Quoting ncstorm:


exactly..it aint happening tonight:)


LOL
631. etxwx
Quoting redwagon:



and after a long drought we'll be Floodin' Down in Texas again....


That was forecast by the SRV model, right?
Quoting bappit:
LinkUnmanned Drones to Fly into Hurricanes



Cat got swag
Quoting tornadodude:


If someone relies solely on one model for his forecast, then that person is an idiot Lol

The RAP is an improvement from the RUC. The RUC was notorious for over doing CAPE and EHI. The RAP is more in line. Also, the RUC was limited to only 12 hours, whereas the RAP can forecast out to 18 hours.
was gonna say the same thing.

Anyway, it's definitely an improvement
Quoting redwagon:



This low out of MX is forecast to give us rain for 4-5 days... and shirley after that something will spin up in the GOM or WCB next week and after a long drought we'll be Floodin' Down in Texas again....


Please stop calling me Shirley!! ;>)
thanks
Quoting etxwx:


That was forecast by the SRV model, right?

I think the SRV model more like nowcasted it, and a fine nowcast it was.
Im out guys..have a good night!
will something spin up in the gulf in the next 2-5 days?
Quoting weatherh98:


Cat got swag

When you get older, you'll learn what that word really means, and you will never use it again. ;)
Quoting docrod:


Please stop calling me Shirley!! ;>)
thanks


shirely you cant be serious
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

When you get older, you'll learn what that word really means, and you will never use it again. ;)


wumail me
Quoting windshear1993:
will something spin up in the gulf in the next 2-5 days?
I don`t think its impossible but in not porbable.
Quoting windshear1993:
will something spin up in the gulf in the next 2-5 days?


Not likely. There is always a slim chance... but I would say no. Now middle next week? That could be a different story, but that is a long ways away. A lot can change between now and then.
Quoting windshear1993:
will something spin up in the gulf in the next 2-5 days?


no.
Quoting allancalderini:
I don`t think its impossible but in not porbable.


what does porbable mean/
Quoting weatherh98:


what does porbable mean/

I think he meant probable lol.
646. etxwx
Quoting redwagon:

I think the SRV model more like nowcasted it, and a fine nowcast it was.


It was a sad, sad day for weather and music when SRV went down.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think he meant probable lol.


Im aware.
thanks guys it would be cool 2 have the "c" named storm b4 the 2005 "c" named storm lol
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
756 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MONROE/UPPER KEYS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITY OF KEY LARGO...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 751 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR
ROCK HARBOR...OR NEAR KEY LARGO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROCK HARBOR...
KEY LARGO...

WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE ARE DANGEROUS AND CAN BE DEADLY. IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST
AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3.

LAT...LON 2510 8040 2509 8042 2507 8044 2507 8048
2508 8047 2510 8049 2512 8049 2512 8047
2510 8046 2511 8044 2513 8047 2514 8046
2513 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 279DEG 9KT 2510 8048

$$

11
Quoting redwagon:

I think the SRV model more like nowcasted it, and a fine nowcast it was.


What was the SRV? Never heard of it before!
Quoting windshear1993:
thanks guys it would be cool 2 have the "c" named storm b4 the 2005 "c" named storm lol


it would be coolif a cold front came through. Nah its louisiana in june...
Quoting weatherh98:


it would be coolif a cold front came through. Nah its louisiana in june...
lol i bet it is
Quoting TomTaylor:
was gonna say the same thing.

Anyway, it's definitely an improvement


Yep, no doubt.

nice dryline setting up next week

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

When you get older, you'll learn what that word really means, and you will never use it again. ;)


You're only a year older than him. Quiet, kid. ;)
Quoting windshear1993:
thanks guys it would be cool 2 have the "c" named storm b4 the 2005 "c" named storm lol

We're crushing 2005 right now... It didn't even have its A storm by this time.
656. etxwx
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What was the SRV? Never heard of it before!


Link
These things happen when nostalgia and slow weather blogs meet...enjoy!
Quoting KoritheMan:


You're only a year older than him. Quiet, kid. ;)



not even a year lol
As I predicted, new blog, so I'm posting my TCR on Beryl again.

Tropical Storm Beryl

AL0212

26 May - 30 May

Beryl was the second out of season tropical storm to form in the Atlantic during 2012. Its formation marked the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms formed during the month of May. In addition, Beryl's landfall near Jacksonville as a 60 kt tropical storm makes it the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone landfall on record for the United States. The previous record was held by Subtropical Storm Alpha, which struck the Georgia coast with 50 kt winds in May of 1972.

a. Storm history

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 12 May, and is believed to have been the precursor to Beryl. The wave was accompanied by some deep convection as it emerged from the coast. Thereafter, the wave become largely indistinct as it marched across the Atlantic, and its entrance into the western Caribbean on 21 May is based largely on extrapolation and continuity. Subsequently, the wave began to interact with a preexisting area of anomalous southwesterly flow encompassing a distance from the far eastern Pacific to Bermuda. This large-scale flow pattern, which has shown to be quite favorable for the initiation of thunderstorm development, could have been triggered by the upward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was making its way across the far eastern Pacific and adjacent Caribbean Sea at that time. Strong westerly shear prevented significant development while the system was in the Caribbean.

In the wake of Alberto, a small trough became established over the eastern seaboard, which forced the disorganized disturbance toward the east-northeast. The system crossed eastern Cuba early on 24 May, and entered the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas later that day. Surface observations from Grand Bahama indicated westerly winds as early as 1200 UTC 25 May as the disturbance passed to the east, providing evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. The low moved northeastward at about 15 mph during this time, embedded in broad southwesterly flow associated with the trough. Under the influence of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the system began to acquire organized deep convection near the center. While such an evolution would typically presage tropical cyclone formation, analysis of satellite and water vapor imagery indicates that the surface low was collocated with an upper low that had apparently been spawned from the same trough that recurved Alberto. This prevented the convection from forming directly over the center. In addition, the system initially lacked upper-level outflow, another distinct characteristic of a tropical cyclone.

Late on 25 May, the trough weakened, leaving the system in a region of weak steering. Owing to the influence of the upper low, the designation of the system as a cyclone at 0000 UTC 26 May is considered to be subtropical. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given. Beryl was initially trapped in a region of weak steering, and moved only slowly southwest. A large blocking pattern began to amplify over the eastern United States at this time, which caused the cyclone to gradually accelerate. Based on microwave data and satellite imagery, Beryl is estimated to have transformed into a tropical cyclone near 1800 UTC 27 May while centered about 110 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. The cyclone's winds are estimated to have been around 55 kt at this time.

As it rounded the southern periphery of the ridge, Beryl turned westward throughout much of the 27th. Under light shear and warm waters, the cyclone strengthened, reaching a peak of 60 kt shortly before landfall along the northeastern Florida coast near Jacksonville Beach just after 0400 UTC 28 May. The cyclone appeared to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane, as doppler visuals indicated a developing eyewall. Following the typical progression, Beryl began to weaken as it moved inland. Concurrently, the cyclone slowed significantly, which was followed by a gradual turn to the north and northeast around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Indeed, the forward speed had decreased so much that the cyclone became essentially stationary near the Georgia/Florida border for about twelve hours beginning around 0000 UTC 29 May. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression near 1200 UTC 29 May while still over northern Florida about 15 miles south of the Georgia border. It should be noted that it took Beryl roughly 38 hours to weaken to a tropical depression after landfall -- a rather anomalous inland decay rate, especially for a system of Beryl's strength.

The slow weakening of the tropical cyclone while moving overland is likely attributable to Beryl's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Its slow movement enabled it to develop a well-defined and persistent inflow band to the east, which helped to continue mixing the strong winds aloft to the surface. Interestingly, water vapor imagery shortly after landfall indicated dry air and some westerly shear impinging on the cyclone's western periphery, which kept much of the associated precipitation in well-defined bands to the east of the center. By around 1200 UTC 29 May, Beryl began to accelerate. As Beryl neared the South Carolina near 0600 UTC, the cloud pattern began to become more suggestive of an extratropical cyclone as the storm began to interact with a cold front moving across the northeastern United States. Synoptic data suggest that this process was complete six hours later, when the system was very near the North Carolina coast.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO GO WITH BKN/OVC CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF LOWER CLOUD DECKS DO DEVELOP WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AROUND
DAYBREAK. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY
MID MORNING SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AREA SAW TODAY. EXPECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE LESS WIND TOO. THE AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
PERSISTING (AND INCREASING) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.
Quoting tornadodude:


Yep, no doubt.

nice dryline setting up next week

Put a powerful low into that and it would be an outbreak of severe weather.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We're crushing 2005 right now... It didn't even have its A storm by this time.
haha thanks for mentioning that..thats so true right now were shaterng 2005 but i bet it would be differnt if we were transitioning from elnino to lanina but next year on the other hand i got a bad feeling about that because when u have elnino in spring it tends to disipate which would transition to lanina in fall such as the years 2003 2005 and 2007
Quoting hydrus:
Put a powerful low into that and it would be an outbreak of severe weather.


gotta have high shear
50% chance of an EF2 or greater in this watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAVRE
MONTANA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...WW 353...WW 354...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS MENTIONED IN SVR WW 354 ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP LWR BASES AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY
MOIST LOW LVL ESELY FLOW ACROSS N CNTRL MT. GREAT FALLS MT VWP
SAMPLES THE 25 KT ELY CURRENT VERY WELL. WITH THE LOW LVL ELY FLOW
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AS THE CA/ORE UPR TROUGH ASSUMES MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT/ACCELERATES NNEWD...AND AS TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS
DECREASE LATER THIS EVE...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES. A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL
EXIST FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...CORFIDI
lol, i just read a post from 2008 where the only people who liked it were lowercal and jfv.

Who is janiel vargas really?
A weather hater of something?

I am still going with my prediction of nothing off the east coast and a TD at best in the gulf.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
lol, i just read a post from 2008 where the only people who liked it were lowercal and jfv.

Who is janiel vargas really?
A weather hater of something?

I am still going with my prediction of nothing off the east coast and a TD at best in the gulf.
ill wumail u
Quoting weatherh98:


gotta have high shear


does a 70-90kt jet sound about right?
Interesting set up if it actually happened..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
lol, i just read a post from 2008 where the only people who liked it were lowercal and jfv.

Who is janiel vargas really?
A weather hater of something?

I am still going with my prediction of nothing off the east coast and a TD at best in the gulf.


A provocative moron. There is absolutely nothing wrong with some of his desires -- namely the yearning to experience a major hurricane. The way you present yourself, however, can have a profound effect on how people view you. You don't say "I hope [hypothetical Hurricane Gordon] devastates south Florida!" when its heading toward it as a Category 5. People are about to lose their livelihoods, and you have the audacity to say such a thing? Completely insensitive. But such a thing is very much in character for Janiel. He's only the second person I've ever deleted on Facebook.

There's also the whole insulting people in Spanish thing.
Quoting windshear1993:
haha thanks for mentioning that..thats so true right now were shaterng 2005 but i bet it would be differnt if we were transitioning from elnino to lanina but next year on the other hand i got a bad feeling about that because when u have elnino in spring it tends to disipate which would transition to lanina in fall such as the years 2003 2005 and 2007

I think a La Nina is very possible next year... Looking at the ENSO model plume forecasts a lot of them have this El Nino being short lived and bringing us back to neutral and presumably La Nina by next year.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


does a 70-90kt jet sound about right?


fine by me
Quoting weatherh98:


gotta have high shear
A powerful low would provide the shear.
Quoting KoritheMan:


A provocative moron. There is absolutely nothing wrong with some of his desires -- namely the yearning to experience a major hurricane. The way you present yourself, however, can have a profound effect on how people view you. You don't say "I hope [hypothetical Hurricane Gordon] devastates south Florida!" when its heading toward it as a Category 5. But such a thing is very much in character for Janiel. He's only the second person I've ever deleted on Facebook.

There's also the whole insulting people in Spanish thing.


You havent deleted me, yet! haha
Quoting KoritheMan:


A provocative moron. There is absolutely nothing wrong with some of his desires -- namely the yearning to experience a major hurricane. The way you present yourself, however, can have a profound effect on how people view you. You don't say "I hope [hypothetical Hurricane Gordon] devastates south Florida!" when its heading toward it as a Category 5. People are about to lose their livelihoods, and you have the audacity to say such a thing? Completely insensitive. But such a thing is very much in character for Janiel. He's only the second person I've ever deleted on Facebook.

There's also the whole insulting people in Spanish thing.

Who was the first? :F
Quoting tornadodude:


You havent deleted me, yet! haha


I'm going to now! :P
WHY YOU NO FRIEND ME ON FB
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think a La Nina is very possible next year... Looking at the ENSO model plume forecasts a lot of them have this El Nino being short lived and bringing us back to neutral and presumably La Nina by next year.
yea it seems like were due for another 2004 2005 again irene was just the beginning
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who was the first? :F


A guy that kept advertising Hinduism to me. I'm interested in religion anyways, but when I tell you to stop, it means stop.
Quoting tornadodude:


You havent deleted me, yet! haha
who ever said that is missing some screws like seriously
Quoting KoritheMan:


A provocative moron. There is absolutely nothing wrong with some of his desires -- namely the yearning to experience a major hurricane. The way you present yourself, however, can have a profound effect on how people view you. You don't say "I hope [hypothetical Hurricane Gordon] devastates south Florida!" when its heading toward it as a Category 5. But such a thing is very much in character for Janiel. He's only the second person I've ever deleted on Facebook.

There's also the whole insulting people in Spanish thing.



i need to find some of yall on facebook..i need some more farmville friends. the weather is always nice there btw
Please don't reference notorious trolls, this could lead to bans.

Thank ya very much!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who was the first? :F


someone didnt accept my friend request -____-
Quoting K8eCane:



i need to find some of yall on facebook..i need some more farmville friends. the weather is always nice there btw


I'll PM you my profile if you are interested. Same to anyone else.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll PM you my profile if you are interested. Same to anyone else.



yes please do thanks!
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll PM you my profile if you are interested. Same to anyone else.


me
Quoting KoritheMan:


A guy that kept advertising Hinduism to me. I'm interested in religion anyways, but when I tell you to stop, it means stop.


you know hinduism is great???
lol

And i have never been contacted by adming in 1300 comments.



So...
That system in the gulf in 276 hours looks like the TD i am expecting
Is anybody expecting something from that TW by the lesser antilles?
I saw some of you were discussing it this afternoon
Quoting weatherh98:


someone didnt accept my friend request -____-

I'm not allowed to friend people I haven't met/know personally. Sorry. Mom rule. :P
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you know hinduism is great???
lol

And i have never been contacted by adming in 1300 comments.



So...
That system in the gulf in 276 hours looks like the TD i am expecting
Is anybody expecting something from that TW by the lesser antilles?
I saw some of you were discussing it this afternoon


i havent seen it
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you know hinduism is great???
lol

And i have never been contacted by adming in 1300 comments.



So...
That system in the gulf in 276 hours looks like the TD i am expecting
Is anybody expecting something from that TW by the lesser antilles?
I saw some of you were discussing it this afternoon


They're probably just bored. Unless it serves as the catalyst for Carlotta in the East Pacific, nothing is likely to come from it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not allowed to friend people I haven't met/know personally. Sorry. Mom rule. :P


Its a great invention called lying...

"Ya mom he went to my old school and move"
Quoting weatherh98:


Its a great invention called lying...

"Ya mom he went to my old school and move"


...Add this to my list of reasons for why I'm terrified of this generation.
Quoting weatherh98:


Its a great invention called lying...

"Ya mom he went to my old school and move"

(facepalm)
Ok so hold on a second....... So far we are crushing 2005..... and we are predicted to have an average season yet it seems like we will have an above average one... What was the forecast for the 2005 season? Were they predicting average???
Quoting Doppler22:
Ok so hold on a second....... So far we are crushing 2005..... and we are predicted to have an average season yet it seems like we will have an above average one... What was the forecast for the 2005 season? Were they predicting average???


no thhey said like 21 i think
Quoting Doppler22:
Ok so hold on a second....... So far we are crushing 2005..... and we are predicted to have an average season yet it seems like we will have an above average one... What was the forecast for the 2005 season? Were they predicting average???

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

(facepalm)


you dont like tht
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Not likely. There is always a slim chance... but I would say no. Now middle next week? That could be a different story, but that is a long ways away. A lot can change between now and then.


Crown Weather is very interested in the NW Caribbean or GOM next week. They nailed both Alberto and Beryl a week out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not allowed to friend people I haven't met/know personally.


you know i am a nice fbi agent.....or a nice pedophile :)

lol, jk

but really, i dont have a FB account anymore so i havent been able to friend the NWS which makes me sad.
Quoting Patrap:
moistah
Quoting weatherh98:


you dont like tht


And we're surprised you do. Think about what you just said. You are advocating not only disobeying your mom, but lying to her as well. And sure, you technically CAN do either of those things, but there will be consequences. If I had done such a thing to any of my family (not just my parents), I would have never heard the end of it. Until you're 18, you are still legally under their protection. Like it or not, until then, you are obligated to do what they say. And if you don't, not only do I think this makes you somewhat pathetic, it shows blatant disrespect for someone who deeply and unconditionally cares for you.

Every kid has disobeyed their parents at one stage in their life. But you aren't supposed to make a habit of it.
Quoting Doppler22:
Ok so hold on a second....... So far we are crushing 2005..... and we are predicted to have an average season yet it seems like we will have an above average one... What was the forecast for the 2005 season? Were they predicting average???


Actually yes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


And we're surprised you do. Think about what you just said. You are advocating not only disobeying your mom, but lying to her as well. And sure, you technically CAN do either of those things, but there will be consequences. If I had done such a thing to any of my family (not just my parents), I would have never heard the end of it. Until you're 18, you are still legally under their protection. Like it or not, until then, you are obligated to do what they say. And if you don't, not only do I think this makes you somewhat pathetic, it shows blatant disrespect for someone who deeply and unconditionally cares for you.

Every kid has disobeyed their parents at one stage in their life. But you aren't supposed to make a habit of it.



im smart enough i would have never heard the beginning of it.
Gosh, am I the only one who finds putting a live lobster into boiling water gross? I know it's just a simple organism but regardless it's pretty cruel to me, I find it strange it is so widely practiced. Put your hand into a pot of boiling water and see what it feels like. Water has a very high capacity of energy in Joules, that being said at 212 degrees its often more painful then fire burns at many hundreds, or at least from experience I think so.



Why not just cut the head off first?
Quoting KoritheMan:


And we're surprised you do. Think about what you just said. You are advocating not only disobeying your mom, but lying to her as well. And sure, you technically CAN do either of those things, but there will be consequences. If I had done such a thing to any of my family (not just my parents), I would have never heard the end of it. Until you're 18, you are still legally under their protection. Like it or not, until then, you are obligated to do what they say. And if you don't, not only do I think this makes you somewhat pathetic, it shows blatant disrespect for someone who deeply and unconditionally cares for you.

Every kid has disobeyed their parents at one stage in their life. But you aren't supposed to make a habit of it.


Im quite scared of my dad.... 6 3 300 i dont disobey him ahahahha
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think a La Nina is very possible next year... Looking at the ENSO model plume forecasts a lot of them have this El Nino being short lived and bringing us back to neutral and presumably La Nina by next year.


One example is the CFSv2 that after climbing to weak el nino,goes back to neutral by winter.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually yes.


What happened in 2005 for them to be so far off anyways? Did El Nino forecasts prove to be very wrong or something?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Gosh, am I the only one who finds putting a live lobster into boiling water gross? I know it's just a simple organism but regardless it's pretty cruel to me, I find it strange it is so widely practiced. Put your hand into a pot of boiling water and see what it feels like. Water has a very high capacity of energy in Joules, that being said at 212 degrees its often more painful then fire burns at many hundreds, or at least from experience I think so.



Why not just cut the head off first?


So you place intrinsic value on something that's not intelligent? I admire that, even though I disagree.

ETA: Not that I'm comfortable with animal cruelty either, no matter how inferior they are to us. I'm just saying that I don't agree with it in theory.
2005 was being predicted at the time to have 12-15 named storms when they ended up with 28.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
2005 was being predicted at the time to have 12-15 named storms when they ended up with 28.


NO REPEATS PLEASE

crazy season
Quoting Jedkins01:
Gosh, am I the only one who finds putting a live lobster into boiling water gross? I know it's just a simple organism but regardless it's pretty cruel to me, I find it strange it is so widely practiced. Put your hand into a pot of boiling water and see what it feels like. Water has a very high capacity of energy in Joules, that being said at 212 degrees its often more painful then fire burns at many hundreds, or at least from experience I think so.



Why not just cut the head off first?
Quoting KoritheMan:


So you place intrinsic value on something that's not intelligent? I admire that, even though I disagree.

ETA: Not that I'm comfortable with animal cruelty either, no matter how inferior they are to us. I'm just saying that I don't agree with it in theory.


Good evening everyone! And well put Kori!
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


One example is the CFSv2 that after climbing to weak el nino,goes back to neutral by winter.



Eh, technically it is still weak El Nino by next January according to that map.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
2005 was being predicted at the time to have 12-15 named storms when they ended up with 28.


Shhhhhh you'll jinx us!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.


How bout that SAL in the central atl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.


discussing the off topic topics we discussed is off topic

for you it is a 48 hour ban.


but it did rain in n ga today
(weather related comment added after reading the following comment by mississippiwx to keep my no contact by admin streak going.)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.


I'm still running a clean slate of no bans. Woo hoo!!

So anyway, how about that heat out there?? (weather-related statement to keep my clean slate going!!)
Quoting redwagon:



This low out of MX is forecast to give us rain for 4-5 days... and shirley after that something will spin up in the GOM or WCB next week and after a long drought we'll be Floodin' Down in Texas again....


We could certainly use the rain here. The KBDI for most of the state is a little high for my taste.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Eh, technically it is still weak El Nino by next January according to that map.


Nah thats .5, neutral
Quoting Jedkins01:
Gosh, am I the only one who finds putting a live lobster into boiling water gross? I know it's just a simple organism but regardless it's pretty cruel to me, I find it strange it is so widely practiced. Put your hand into a pot of boiling water and see what it feels like. Water has a very high capacity of energy in Joules, that being said at 212 degrees its often more painful then fire burns at many hundreds, or at least from experience I think so.



Why not just cut the head off first?


If you put them in cold water and slowly warm it, it lulls them to sleep and they do not feel pain. It also makes for a more tender lobster.
The administrative judgment here seems extremely inconsistent. I'm not particularly concerned about a temporary ban. I would definitely remain on-topic during actual hurricane duress though, purely as a matter of respect.
Quoting KoritheMan:


So you place intrinsic value on something that's not intelligent? I admire that, even though I disagree.



My point is though, just because things are simple doesn't mean we should do whatever we want to them.


I say this as someone who likes to fish and hunt, so I'm not a vegan who places simpler life forms at the human level by any means, I don't think they have some shared universal spirit. However, because we are in authority then we should be careful how treat lesser life forms. I think the violence of American culture starts with the way animal life is often treated. Torturing creatures is part of being a boy when I grew up cause every boy did it, which is why I did too. Of course my mom never knew, but some parents, well mainly men, even encourage it thinking it will make their sons "tough".


Ultimately my point is any wicked behavior, if you will, starts as a small seed, and it grows if you feed it, and violence starts with cruelty to even simple things, this has even been proven by psychologists who study rapists/murderers.
Quoting KoritheMan:
The administrative judgment seems extremely inconsistent. I'm not particularly concerned about a temporary ban.


famous last words....


did anyone find the drastic convective outlook change this afternoon strange?
Quoting KoritheMan:
The administrative judgment here seems extremely inconsistent. I'm not particularly concerned about a temporary ban. I would definitely remain on-topic during actual hurricane duress though, purely as a matter of respect.

It was nice knowing you.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


famous last words....


did anyone find the drastic convective outlook change this afternoon strange?


I didn't even notice. What was it?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

When you get older, you'll learn what that word really means, and you will never use it again. ;)


why not?

Incorrectly it means confidence,correctly it is a type of wreath.
.
Quoting Jedkins01:



My point is though, just because things are simple doesn't mean we should do whatever we want to them.


I say this as someone who likes to fish and hunt, so I'm not a vegan who places simpler life forms at the human level by any means, I don't think they have some shared universal spirit. However, because we are in authority then we should be careful how treat lesser life forms. I think the violence of American culture starts with the way animal life is often treated. Torturing creatures is part of being a boy when I grew up cause every boy did it, which is why I did too. Of course my mom never knew, but some parents, well mainly men, even encourage it thinking it will make their sons "tough".


Ultimately my point is any wicked behavior, if you will starts as a small seed, and it grows if you feed it, and violence starts with cruelty to even simple things.


I don't dispute that, but I don't think it's quite that simple either.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't even notice. What was it?
where at?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


famous last words....


did anyone find the drastic convective outlook change this afternoon strange?


no?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.


Speaking of off topic discussions... I went to the eye doctor today for the first time and found out that my long distance vision is 20/70. :o
Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually yes.

Thats a little scary if you think about it... They predicted an average but got a WAY above average season... Now we are ahead of 2005 and is predicted to have an average season :O
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't even notice. What was it?


it wasnt that bad , it had more to do with how they made the areas under the slight risk go in the explanations, you would have thought the next outlook would not have anywhere in the TN valley, but then it did have 2 areas.

partially that was just a weather related comment


nite all, my 9 pm bedtime is fast approaching, considering i have to be up at 445 everyday.

Quoting Doppler22:

Thats a little scary if you think about it...
If you realize it's a coincidence, it's not. :P
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Meh. I pour lighter fluid on large spiders then burn them. I'm from the internet, whaddya expect?


Amen to that. Where I live, there are flying cockroaches. Humane treatment won't get the job done on those puppies...
Quoting Doppler22:

Thats a little scary if you think about it... They predicted an average but got a WAY above average season... Now we are ahead of 2005 and is predicted to have an average season :O



that means almost nothing.


West Texas continues to get stuck with zero rain.
Quoting Jedkins01:



My point is though, just because things are simple doesn't mean we should do whatever we want to them.


I say this as someone who likes to fish and hunt, so I'm not a vegan who places simpler life forms at the human level by any means, I don't think they have some shared universal spirit. However, because we are in authority then we should be careful how treat lesser life forms. I think the violence of American culture starts with the way animal life is often treated. Torturing creatures is part of being a boy when I grew up cause every boy did it, which is why I did too. Of course my mom never knew, but some parents, well mainly men, even encourage it thinking it will make their sons "tough".


Ultimately my point is any wicked behavior, if you will, starts as a small seed, and it grows if you feed it, and violence starts with cruelty to even simple things, this has even been proven by psychologists who study rapists/murderers.
So taping lizards to bottle rockets applies too... :/
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it wasnt that bad , it had more to do with how they made the areas under the slight risk go in the explanations, you would have thought the next outlook would not have anywhere in the TN valley, but then it did have 2 areas.

partially that was just a weather related comment


nite all, my 9 pm bedtime is fast approaching, considering i have to be up at 445 everyday.


me too 500 comes too early. good night all
Quoting KoritheMan:

If you realize it's a coincidence, it's not. :P

I'm waiting for somebody to quote me saying ITS DOOM!!!! :D
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



that means almost nothing.

And yes i know... im just thinking
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't dispute that, but I don't think it's quite that simple either.



Oh, I agree it's not that simple either, I'm just giving a representation model, so to speak. Obviously cooking lobsters in boiling water isn't really a step to being a serial killer, lol, but you get my point I think.


Quoting Abacosurf:
So taping lizards to bottle rockets applies too... :/
Cruelty aside, that's just disgusting. That'd be like tying a frog to a bottle rocket.
Quoting Abacosurf:
So taping lizards to bottle rockets applies too... :/



Hey kids can be cruel, I did stuff like that in junior high, though obviously I wouldn't anymore. Remember that we can all have a bit of a cruel streak somewhere in us I think.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.



Chuckle chuckle..... :)
Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm still running a clean slate of no bans. Woo hoo!!

So anyway, how about that heat out there?? (weather-related statement to keep my clean slate going!!)




Ever had a post removed?
Wouldn't want something like this to happen again.

Could you image how crazy this blog would be? =P

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Ever had a post removed?
I have.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.

How about this weather!!

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Ever had a post removed?


.....%%# %^^#^$ &^%^&* &^%$ # my post would if I actually say what I wanted to say back there

Quoting Ameister12:
Wouldn't want something like this again.

Could you image how crazy this blog would be?
Can you imagine how hard it'd be to forecast?
Reading back here a way, and finding a lot of 'off-topic' stuff.
But I must say it is far more entertaining than the usual trollish foolishness and the competitive nonsense that we usually see.

Have a good evening, all.
Have no fear, storms are a'comin'......
Quoting Abacosurf:
So taping lizards to bottle rockets applies too... :/


That's my newest idea for tornado research. Launch lizards into the mesocyclone to see what happens. I can probably get some sort of government funding for this. Heck, PETA might even jump on board if I can convince them I am helping to promote animals in science.
Interesting changes coming tomorrow along Cent Gulf Coast..Troughing and ridging and outflow, Oh MY

Hope the rain pans out as forecasted....
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Amen to that. Where I live, there are flying cockroaches. Humane treatment won't get the job done on those puppies...


If they are the little ones that you find near you outside lights at night, they are "Asian" cockroaches, they look very similar to the "German" cockroaches except they fly and are attracted to light whereas the Germans don't fly and run from from light. Also the Asians are "wet" bugs meaning they require lots of moisture to survive but the Germans can thrive in a much drier enviornment. That is the reason they infest homes easily.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Can you imagine how hard it'd be to forecast?

Umm... no I couldn't.
Quoting tornadodude:


That's my newest idea for tornado research. Launch lizards into the mesocyclone to see what happens. I can probably get some sort of government funding for this. Heck, PETA might even jump on board if I can convince them I am helping to promote animals in science.

"Elevate" would be a better word there....

Quoting tornadodude:

 Heck, PETA might even jump on board if I can convince them I am helping to promote animals in science.
XD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's topic of discussions.

* Economic Depression
* Global famines
* Climate change
* Lobsters
* Lying and facebook

We're all getting 24-hour bans lol.



LOL
Quoting MississippiWx:
New SST anomaly map came out today. Two things worth noting are the increasing anomalies in the Atlantic thanks to a recent strongly negative NAO. Also, El Nino continues its slow, but steady progression.



One month ago:

Damn, that is actually really impressive. I've been watching negative NAO for a while now, but I didn't think it could heat up the east Atlantic, MDR, and central Atlantic that quickly.


SST anomaly change in 4 days (yes, only four days)

Quoting pottery:
Reading back here a way, and finding a lot of 'off-topic' stuff.
But I must say it is far more entertaining than the usual trollish foolishness and the competitive nonsense that we usually see.

Have a good evening, all.
Have no fear, storms are a'comin'......


my posts are better than your posts
Thanks to everyone who posts the models for 1 - 2 weeks out. I realize they're only models but they give us gulf coast residents an idea if development is possible.
Quoting Jedkins01:



My point is though, just because things are simple doesn't mean we should do whatever we want to them.


I say this as someone who likes to fish and hunt, so I'm not a vegan who places simpler life forms at the human level by any means, I don't think they have some shared universal spirit. However, because we are in authority then we should be careful how treat lesser life forms. I think the violence of American culture starts with the way animal life is often treated. Torturing creatures is part of being a boy when I grew up cause every boy did it, which is why I did too. Of course my mom never knew, but some parents, well mainly men, even encourage it thinking it will make their sons "tough".


Ultimately my point is any wicked behavior, if you will, starts as a small seed, and it grows if you feed it, and violence starts with cruelty to even simple things, this has even been proven by psychologists who study rapists/murderers.


I absolutely couldn't agree with you more! Thank you! BTW sometimes animals have a keener sense about danger and the world around them, than us supposedly humans of so called superior Intelligence!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn, that is actually really impressive. I've been watching negative NAO for a while now, but I didn't think it could heat up the east Atlantic that quickly.


SST anomaly change in 4 days (yes, only four days)


This is the strongest negative NAO we've been in since last August. It's going to warm the waters quickly.
Quoting pottery:

"Elevate" would be a better word there....


Touche, Touche. haha


Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn, that is actually really impressive. I've been watching negative NAO for a while now, but I didn't think it could heat up the east Atlantic, MDR, and central Atlantic that quickly.


SST anomaly change in 4 days (yes, only four days)

Meh. I'm not surprised.
Well I won't be coming on the blog for a while..the admin are pest and combine that with bloggers that wanna take you down when they get a chance..yeah.I'll be waiting till something "pops off" in the tropics to come and lurk and give my two cents.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Hey kids can be cruel, I did stuff like that in junior high, though obviously I wouldn't anymore. Remember that we can all have a bit of a cruel streak somewhere in us I think.


You guys are crazy... was it just me who strapped my sisters' barbies to bottle rockets and sent them to the moon... no animals hurt by me...
Quoting Doppler22:

I'm waiting for somebody to quote me saying ITS DOOM!!!! :D
And yes i know... im just thinking


We are all doom.
Quoting presslord:


my posts are better than your posts

HA !
You thought I had gone away didn't you..
Well, you 've been Ported, Reported, Exported, Extorted and Cohorted.

So there !
Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn, that is actually really impressive. I've been watching negative NAO for a while now, but I didn't think it could heat up the east Atlantic, MDR, and central Atlantic that quickly.


SST anomaly change in 4 days (yes, only four days)


Dang! That's a very impressive negative NAO.
Quoting mynameispaul:
Thanks to everyone who posts the models for 1 - 2 weeks out. I realize they're only models but they give us gulf coast residents an idea if development is possible.


You're welcome.
Quoting pottery:

HA !
You thought I had gone away didn't you..
Well, you 've been Ported, Reported, Exported, Extorted and Cohorted.

So there !


deported?
Quoting Dragod66:


You guys are crazy... was it just me who strapped my sisters' barbies to bottle rockets and sent them to the moon... no animals hurt by me...
Biology would dispute that. ;)
Quoting presslord:


deported?


Demoted?
Quoting presslord:


deported?

Absolutely !
And Consorted.
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm




Quoting pottery:

Absolutely !
And Consorted.


Good! That's my favorite!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn, that is actually really impressive. I've been watching negative NAO for a while now, but I didn't think it could heat up the east Atlantic, MDR, and central Atlantic that quickly.


SST anomaly change in 4 days (yes, only four days)



It could get a lot warmer by the end of the month.
Quoting presslord:


Good! That's my favorite!

Good. Thought you might like that.

See y'all tomorrow.
Stay safe!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn, that is actually really impressive. I've been watching negative NAO for a while now, but I didn't think it could heat up the east Atlantic, MDR, and central Atlantic that quickly.


SST anomaly change in 4 days (yes, only four days)

so since its heating will there be cold waters during the peak of the season
Quoting KoritheMan:
Biology would dispute that. ;)


*** correction *** no animals tortured by me
Quoting Dragod66:


You guys are crazy... was it just me who strapped my sisters' barbies to bottle rockets and sent them to the moon... no animals hurt by me...


My brother used to do that to mine :-) Or he would scalp them, or make a little noose and hang them in the shower.
Quoting tornadodude:
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm





Well that's nice.
The NAO's just about hit bottom... It will start coming back up soon

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well that's nice.


indeed. Pretty nice upslope setup. Too bad I'll be in Tennessee haha
Quoting ncstorm:


the models that I showed were for the GOM development..hence the origin of the blob and the blogger who was stating development..and just because its cold core dosent mean it cant transition to a subtropical cyclone..alberto and beryl did such..at this time of the year, when I see a 1008 mb Low, Im not just going to think its cold core throughout its whole life..In fact, if I remember correctly, I dont think most models stated Alberto and Beryl would have tropical characteristics in the cyclone phase diagrams..I remember posting about potential Beryl on the Euro model run and most of you guys said it was cold core then and we all know what happened with that one
That's because it was cold core. Later, it transitioned to warm core when it developed more significant thunderstorms over and around its center.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012

NCZ107-050400-
/O.CON.KILM.CF.Y.0011.120605T0000Z-120605T0400Z/
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
724 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND THE BATTLESHIP MEMORIAL.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAUGE
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 6.0 FEET MLLW...MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...OR
ABOUT A HALF FOOT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT JUST AFTER 1030 PM. MINOR
FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 900 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF BATTLESHIP ROAD AND U.S.S. NORTH CAROLINA
ROAD WILL BE COVERED WITH HALF A FOOT OR LESS OF WATER. WATER
WILL RISE THROUGH STORM DRAINS COVERING PORTIONS OF PRINCESS AND
WATER STREETS IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
RIVER SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE
SHALLOW FLOODING ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT TIDES WILL GENERATE SOME
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$
Quoting goosegirl1:


My brother used to do that to mine :-) Or he would scalp them, or make a little noose and hang them in the shower.


I used to snap the heads off them and since they were so expensive mom and dad would just stick the heads back on and say "all fixed" and all my sisters barbies had no necks. :D

still rainy here... gonna be for 3 more days ugh
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is the strongest negative NAO we've been in since last August. It's going to warm the waters quickly.
yep, seeing that right now

Quoting KoritheMan:

Meh. I'm not surprised.
Not surprised, you're not surprised :>
.....................................Thats it for me, Good Nite guys
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Ever had a post removed?


Nope...I have a clean slate, somehow. Haha. I'm just an angel, I guess.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is the strongest negative NAO we've been in since last August. It's going to warm the waters quickly.


The AO and NAO have both actually tanked recently, which is something we didn't see all winter. Had a lot to do with our incredibly warm winter.
im getting nervous about this hurricane season omg :(
Quoting MississippiWx:


Nope...I have a clean slate, somehow. Haha. I'm just an angel, I guess.

I bet you've had at least one comment removed before. If not, that can be arranged. ;)

I've had a few so far this season, but I try to remain on-topic most of the time. :P
Quoting windshear1993:
im getting nervous about this hurricane season omg :(


lyke omg guyz. dis season iz gunna b turrible
Those who live in Texas may want to read this as it relates about El Nino and TC's affecting that state.

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:


Nope...I have a clean slate, somehow. Haha. I'm just an angel, I guess.


Those who say that are usually dirty as hell on the inside. ;)
Quoting stormpetrol:


I absolutely couldn't agree with you more! Thank you! BTW sometimes animals have a keener sense about danger and the world around them, than us supposedly humans of so called superior Intelligence!



Animals might be simpler than us but they are a lot smarter than many people give them credit for, it's all about how they are designed, and yes they are designed differently than us. The fact the most people don't realize that is why we often dismiss them as just machines that don't feel anything.

It's ironic that many urbanites criticize me for hunting, yet as I've hunted it's given me greater respect for animal life. I'm actual much more humane with how I handle animals, and I've learned they are often much smarter than they are treated to be. I'm amazed how far we have separated from the natural world, I know many people that absolutely freak out in fear going camping, or just seeing a racoon or being in the woods at night. As humans have isolated from nature we have learned to fear it and thus we destroy it more. Most people I know immediately kill a snake or "varmint" that gets in their yard as they are stricken with fear, instead of carefully relocating it.


There are some funny ironies that have come along with human society and its advancement, we have lost much of our care and understanding for the natural world. We fear it and so we either destroy it out of fear, or purely out of ignorance.

We are dealing with the fruits of our labor so to speak, animal extinction, forest depletion, and even climate change can arguably be a result from what I have discussed above. The earth itself works like an organism, and eventually, what goes around comes around.




Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn, that is actually really impressive. I've been watching negative NAO for a while now, but I didn't think it could heat up the east Atlantic, MDR, and central Atlantic that quickly.


SST anomaly change in 4 days (yes, only four days)



Yep, it makes that big of a difference. Nothing to toss around what warms at the surface since the wind lessens.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we'll get it between June 15 and June 20.





someone follows levi on fb lol
Quoting tornadodude:


lyke omg guyz. dis season iz gunna b turrible


Ernesto is going to hit my house a major hurricane. Better board up!
Quoting tornadodude:


lyke omg guyz. dis season iz gunna b turrible
i have mixed feelings i think this season would be between 2004 or 2009 season :?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Those who say that are usually dirty as hell on the inside. ;)


Is it that obvious??
Quoting TomTaylor:





someone follows levi on fb lol

Well no, that was just a guesstimate based on the return of MJO and the timeframe the GFS is showing a tropical cyclone. :p
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ernesto is going to hit my house a major hurricane. Better board up!


Yeah, Ill be in a tent in Tennessee all summer, guess Im doomed. oh well #yolo
Significant warming north of the MDR

like i saw that animation of the NAO and thats crazy how the waters warmed up that quick
Quoting Jedkins01:



Animals might be simpler than us but they are a lot smarter than many people give them credit for, it's all about how they are designed, and yes they are designed differently than us. The fact the most people don't realize that is why we often dismiss them as just machines that don't feel anything.

It's ironic that many urbanites criticize me for hunting, yet as I've hunted it's given me greater respect for animal life. I'm actual much more humane with how I handle animals, and I've learned they are often much smarter than they are treated to be. I'm amazed how far we have separated from the natural world, I know many people that absolutely freak out in fear going camping, or just seeing a racoon or being in the woods at night. As humans have isolated from nature we have learned to fear it and thus we destroy it more. Most people I know immediately kill a snake or "varmint" that gets in their yard as they are stricken with fear, instead of carefully relocating it.


Their are some funny ironies that have come along with human society and its advancement, we have lost much of our care and understanding for the natural world. We fear it and so we either destroy it out of fear, or purely out of ignorance.

We are dealing with the fruits of our labor so to speak, animal extinction, forest depletion, and even global warming can arguably be a result from what I have discussed above. The earth itself works like an organism, and eventually, what goes around comes around.






I just want to say that, you sir, would make a masterful Pokemon trainer. Just sayin.
Quoting windshear1993:
like i saw that animation of the NAO and thats crazy how the waters warmed up that quick

Yeah...Tom posted it 15 minutes ago...
Quoting windshear1993:
like i saw that animation of the NAO and thats crazy how the waters warmed up that quick


Have to remember, the anomalies can cool just as quickly as they warmed. Since the NAO is highly unpredictable past a week and a half out, it's really hard to know what will happen with it. The forecast is an increase into positive territory, but we will see.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...Tom posted it 15 minutes ago...
i know that im just stunned 2 see how quickly they warmed up so wuts the forcast now lol
Quoting Dragod66:


You guys are crazy... was it just me who strapped my sisters' barbies to bottle rockets and sent them to the moon... no animals hurt by me...



See I never had a sister, I grew up with all boys, the only female in my immediate family is my mom, and still is. I don't have a girl friend yet either, haven't had one since 17 and it's not their fault, maybe my social skills with them suck because I didn't have a sister, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I bet you've had at least one comment removed before. If not, that can be arranged. ;)

I've had a few so far this season, but I try to remain on-topic most of the time. :P


Never!

And I guess it could be arranged, but it would be a faulty ruling. Manipulating the system is frowned upon, sir!
Quoting KoritheMan:


I just want to say that, you sir, would make a masterful Pokemon trainer. Just sayin.



Be careful, I didn't intend that post to be humorous...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Those who live in Texas may want to read this as it relates about El Nino and TC's affecting that state.

Link


Thanks!

I wonder how this might also relate to what I saw the state climatologist talking about last night, regarding the relationship between long periods of statewide drought and tropical cyclone landfalls near Galveston.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Those who live in Texas may want to read this as it relates about El Nino and TC's affecting that state.

Link

Don't get me excited haha im jk that would be nice if its true
In Missouri

Quoting tornadodude:
In Missouri


Decent couplet. I'd say there is probably a tornado on the ground.

Quoting Jedkins01:



Be careful, I didn't intend that post to be humorous...


I'll remove it if you want. I was just messing around. Wasn't trying to make light of anything.
was just thinking the same thing...but in MT



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Decent couplet. I'd say there is probably a tornado on the ground.

Quoting LargoFl:
.....................................Thats it for me, Good Nite guys
Wondering is all that nasty!!!!!!!weather is coming to Miami,that huge cell looks very bad!!! and it's seems that is coming this way??,don't heard anything from the local Mets about bad weather tonight here in Miami???.
Quoting Jedkins01:



See I never had a sister, I grew up with all boys, the only female in my immediate family is my mom, and still is. I don't have a girl friend yet either, haven't had one since 17 and it's not their fault, maybe my social skills with them suck because I didn't have a sister, lol.


lol i guess when you have multiple brothers you have multiple the trouble
Quoting Jedkins01:



See I never had a sister, I grew up with all boys, the only female in my immediate family is my mom, and still is. I don't have a girl friend yet either, haven't had one since 17 and it's not their fault, maybe my social skills with them suck because I didn't have a sister, lol.


I had four sisters. Trust me, they added nothing to my social skills.
Quoting KoritheMan:


So you place intrinsic value on something that's not intelligent? I admire that, even though I disagree.

ETA: Not that I'm comfortable with animal cruelty either, no matter how inferior they are to us. I'm just saying that I don't agree with it in theory.
?

Humans are animals too. Just because we are more developed intellectually, doesn't mean that less intelligent animals should be treated poorly. They can also feel and process pain, understand and communicate emotions, empathize and sympathize with others, and have a fundamental understanding of right from wrong.
okay this blog is off topic lol goodnight everyone
...and then the storm rapidly falls apart lol.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
was just thinking the same thing...but in MT





Sick Structure


Live stream from my friend Jesse who is on that storm


(Click Image)


Quoting TomTaylor:
?

Humans are animals too. Just because we are more developed intellectually, doesn't mean that less intelligent animals should be treated poorly. They can also feel and process pain, understand and communicate emotions, empathize and sympathize with others, and have a fundamental understanding of right from wrong.


No, that is just not true. Humans can distinguish between right and wrong while animals cannot, which is one reason I disagree with the classification of humans as animals. Animals simply perform an act; they do not sit around and think about the decision they are about to make.
Quoting TomTaylor:
?

Humans are animals too. Just because we are more developed intellectually, doesn't mean that less intelligent animals should be treated poorly. They can also feel and process pain, understand and communicate emotions, empathize and sympathize with others, and have a fundamental understanding of right from wrong.


I'm already aware that humans are animals. I pointed that out 20 minutes ago. I'm also not saying that I advocate animal cruelty, but I'm not going to lose sleep if I stick a slew of crawfish into water and boil them. I will admit that kind of mindset is most developed from societal conditioning of human superiority, and also just evolutionary biology in general.
Whats up with this whole animal cruelty and rights thing going on? I dont mind debating but i come on to see weather related information. Are the tropics that void of activity? Just wondering :P Yall may continue
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


No, that is just not true. Humans can distinguish between right and wrong while animals cannot, which is one reason I disagree with the classification of humans as animals. Animals simply perform an act; they do not sit around and think about the decision they are about to make.


Actually, there have been some studies* that have shown that certain primates display some sort of intellectuality.

*Unfortunately, I have lost the links to said studies. I don't actually expect you to take me seriously based on sketchy memory.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll remove it if you want. I was just messing around. Wasn't trying to make light of anything.



lol its ok, I thought it was funny actually :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually, there have been some studies* that have shown that certain primates display some sort of intellectuality.

*Unfortunately, I have lost the links to said studies. I don't actually expect you to take me seriously based on sketchy memory.


Certain primates probably means the Great Apes, and that would certainly make sense.
834. DFWjc
Don't know if anyone has read or seen this

Link

From the precursor to our future robot overlords to a galactic collision that just might ruin the day of our future descendants, NASA's been focused on extraterrestrial matters as of late. Still, the space agency isn't about to ignore its own backyard, announcing plans to send unmanned aircraft above hurricanes starting this summer to beef up its environmental science know-how. NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) program is commissioning two of its Global Hawks for the job -- one for sampling storm environments and another for measuring stuff such as rainband winds and precipitation. The goal is to gather data that will help researchers better understand storm intensity and how hurricanes form. While NASA's at it, perhaps it can also research why TV reporters feel the need to deliver those comical field reports while being buffeted by hurricane winds. Then again, we highly doubt there's a logical explanation for that
This has got to be one of the strongest velocity signatures I've seen in a while... from the Montana tornado warned storm:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually, there have been some studies* that have shown that certain primates display some sort of intellectuality.

*Unfortunately, I have lost the links to said studies. I don't actually expect you to take me seriously based on sketchy memory.


But the intelligence of primates pales greatly in comparison to that of humans, to the point where they shouldn't be compared.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


No, that is just not true. Humans can distinguish between right and wrong while animals cannot, which is one reason I disagree with the classification of humans as animals. Animals simply perform an act; they do not sit around and think about the decision they are about to make.
Yes it is true.

I should have clarified that not all animals can, but some certainly can, at least when it comes to matters that pertain to their own survival or social life.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


But the intelligence of primates pales greatly in comparison to that of humans, to the point where they shouldn't be compared.


But that wasn't your original claim.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm already aware that humans are animals. I pointed that out 20 minutes ago. I'm also not saying that I advocate animal cruelty, but I'm not going to lose sleep if I stick a slew of crawfish into water and boil them. I will admit that kind of mindset is most developed from societal conditioning of human superiority, and also just evolutionary biology in general.
yeah i understand that
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Whats up with this whole animal cruelty and rights thing going on? I dont mind debating but i come on to see weather related information. Are the tropics that void of activity? Just wondering :P Yall may continue


IMO, they should take this discussion to a PETA lecture at the Democratic National Convention.
Do Lobsters feel pain? Being from Nova Scotia I have asked this question many times...

The Lobster Institute has received many inquiries about whether boiling lobsters is humane. Being concerned about this important question, researchers conducted experiments and studied the lobster's nervous system. The nervous system of a lobster is very simple – not unlike that of an insect. Neither insects nor lobsters have brains. For an organism to perceive pain it must have a more complex nervous system. Neurophysiologists tell us that lobsters, like insects, do not process pain.

well i hope this will clear some of that up... as for the debate that is it still wrong to throw an animal in a boiling pot...? I say the damn things taste so good... and just to tie this back to weather for hoping not to get banned, I got a lobster boil in two weekends where we go camping and im wondering how accurate a weather model is out 2 weeks... prob not that much right?... I dont want rain!
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


IMO, they should take this discussion to a PETA lecture at the Democratic National Convention.

Thank you, I was about to state the same exact thing :D haha. Im not for cruelty or anything, i just dont think this is the place to debate it. Thats just my opinion too.
Quoting KoritheMan:


But that wasn't your original claim.


Hmm, for some reason I misread that as "your original clam." Perhaps this is starting to go on too long?
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Animals simply perform an act; they do not sit around and think about the decision they are about to make.
Animals aren't computers. There is definitely a thought process before an action. However, with most organisms, that thought process is far simpler than that of humans.
Quoting Dragod66:
Do Lobsters feel pain? Being from Nova Scotia I have asked this question many times...

The Lobster Institute has received many inquiries about whether boiling lobsters is humane. Being concerned about this important question, researchers conducted experiments and studied the lobster's nervous system. The nervous system of a lobster is very simple – not unlike that of an insect. Neither insects nor lobsters have brains.
Lobsters do have a brain, although you are right some studies have shown that their nervous system may be too simple to process pain.
Quoting angiest:


Hmm, for some reason I misread that as "your original clam." Perhaps this is starting to go on too long?


You didn't misread. That's what I said. :P
Quoting TomTaylor:
Animals aren't computers. There is definitely a thought process before an action. However, with most organisms, that thought process is far simpler than that of humans.Lobsters do have a brain, although you are right some studies have shown that their nervous system may be too simple to process pain.


well "The Lobster Institute" got that one wrong... :S
848. 7544
hmm nice blob there just to the west of fla looks like it can only go one way -------->
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Decent couplet. I'd say there is probably a tornado on the ground.



NWS LSR is reporting 1 fatality from an overturned mobile home in that area.
Once again, CMC and NGP compared with GFS are more agressive developing a Low coming out from SE Conus....

Quoting Dragod66:
Do Lobsters feel pain? Being from Nova Scotia I have asked this question many times...

The Lobster Institute has received many inquiries about whether boiling lobsters is humane. Being concerned about this important question, researchers conducted experiments and studied the lobster's nervous system. The nervous system of a lobster is very simple – not unlike that of an insect. Neither insects nor lobsters have brains. For an organism to perceive pain it must have a more complex nervous system. Neurophysiologists tell us that lobsters, like insects, do not process pain.

well i hope this will clear some of that up... as for the debate that is it still wrong to throw an animal in a boiling pot...? I say the damn things taste so good... and just to tie this back to weather for hoping not to get banned, I got a lobster boil in two weekends where we go camping and im wondering how accurate a weather model is out 2 weeks... prob not that much right?... I dont want rain!
I wouldn't underestimate the lobster.
Even the ant has some sensory perception that's fine enough to detect incoming low pressure and/or moisture. I have to give the lobster much more credit than the ant and having thrown a few in I think they sense the hot water and there's even a high pitched noise they make as they die.
.
But they really are delicious. Plain, with butter sauce, cold in a lobster roll. All good, for us.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes it is true.

I should have clarified that not all animals can, but some certainly can, at least when it comes to matters that pertain to their own survival or social life.


Like posted here, this one no longer has feelings and only wants to fly....

Link

Link



Tornado warned storm in Montana weakening...
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Tornado warned storm in Montana weakening...



Looks like it is outflow dominant now
While you guys are talking about humans being human, I decided to draw Tropical Storm Beryl as it made landfall on Florida.
What do you guys think?

Quoting Hurricane1216:
While you guys are talking about humans being human, I decided to draw Tropical Storm Beryl as it made landfall on Florida.
What do you guys think?

it looks like a category 3 or something haha
Quoting Hurricane1216:
While you guys are talking about humans being human, I decided to draw Tropical Storm Beryl as it made landfall on Florida.
What do you guys think?



It's marvelous.


Strong storm (with tornado vortex signature) outside the WW watch area in Kentucky. Also, storms really starting to heat up in Texas.
what is that shield figure on radar just west of okc?
Quoting sunlinepr:


Like posted here, this one no longer has feelings and only wants to fly....

Link

Link



Not sure how I feel about this, tbh.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Strong storm (with tornado vortex signature) outside the WW watch area in Kentucky. Also, storms really starting to heat up in Texas.


TVS appears to be a false positive.


Tornadodude, why did the spc not issue a WW for Texas?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I wouldn't underestimate the lobster.
Even the ant has some sensory perception that's fine enough to detect incoming low pressure and/or moisture. I have to give the lobster much more credit than the ant and having thrown a few in I think they sense the hot water and there's even a high pitched noise they make as they die.
.
But they really are delicious. Plain, with butter sauce, cold in a lobster roll. All good, for us.




Montana storm
Can someone give a quick synopsis of the moisture in the gulf, and what if any chances it brings rain to the SW Florida area?
Quoting Hurricane1216:
While you guys are talking about humans being human, I decided to draw Tropical Storm Beryl as it made landfall on Florida.
What do you guys think?



Nice, I like it. As a few people said, it looks a bit bigger and more intense than what it was but heck, you do better than me and I think it's great.
Quoting CypressJim08:
Can someone give a quick synopsis of the moisture in the gulf, and what if any chances it brings rain to the SW Florida area?


If it can maintain its size and the intensity of heavier rainfall, and still be spread over us, South Florida could get locally heavy rainfall of probably 2-3 inches with isolated higher amounts and risk street flooding especially in low lying areas. I'm not a complete expert yet but thats my thought, and I don't see a widespread heavy rainfall event from the moisture at this time.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not sure how I feel about this, tbh.


I was refering to the owner of the cat....

See post 620; this was posted as an animal drone....
Quoting Hurricane1216:
While you guys are talking about humans being human, I decided to draw Tropical Storm Beryl as it made landfall on Florida.
What do you guys think?



Looks super, even with inverted colors....

Ah, having respect for your copyright....

You can make T-Shirts with drawings like that

tks for #863 keep.
Very nice. And appropriate.
Still wouldn't turn down a nice grilled lobster tail right about now.....
Quoting Hurricane1216:
While you guys are talking about humans being human, I decided to draw Tropical Storm Beryl as it made landfall on Florida.
What do you guys think?



It looks excellent.
Quoting hurricaneben:


If it can maintain its size and the intensity of heavier rainfall, and still be spread over us, South Florida could get locally heavy rainfall of probably 2-3 inches with isolated higher amounts and risk street flooding especially in low lying areas. I'm not a complete expert yet but thats my thought, and I don't see a widespread heavy rainfall event from the moisture at this time.


There has been a lot of talk of the high currently in the GOM sliding east and parking itself just off the east coast of Florida, helping to usher in the easterly flow required for our "normal" afternoon thunderstorms. It is still a little early to get our hopes up for the "rainy season" to begin, but that pattern would sure help.

What Can Animals' Survival Instincts Tell Us About Understanding Human Emotion?

Link

ScienceDaily (Feb. 22, 2012) %u2014 Can animals' survival instincts shed additional light on what we know about human emotion? New York University neuroscientist Joseph LeDoux poses this question in outlining a pioneering theory, drawn from two decades of research, that could lead to a more comprehensive understanding of emotions in both humans and animals.




Q: Humans are under the impression that they are the animal with the greatest feelings and certainly have the greatest capacity to empathize with other creatures. Is this a mistaken assumption? Why?

Link

Panksepp: There is no question that all other animals have emotional feelings. The science is strong for that. And all our strongest basic emotional feelings come from brain networks all mammals share. Unfortunately, we can't scientifically compare the intensity or greatness of feelings across species.

However, because we have a greater capacity to think than most, we can do more with our emotions than other animals. We can write music, create poetry. And because of our higher mental abilities, we also have greater capacities for both empathy among strangers and cruelty. There are hints that across modern history empathy has been winning out over cruelty. But then one looks at the 20th century and wonders.

Still, the only way that empathy will continue to grow is if our higher mind gets in touch with the better angels of our lower minds -- with maternal care and social joy being among the most important.
Quoting Grothar:


I had four sisters. Trust me, they added nothing to my social skills.



hahaha

:)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
tks for #863 keep.
Very nice. And appropriate.
Still wouldn't turn down a nice grilled lobster tail right about now.....
nothing wrong with taking what you will eat whats wrong is taking and not eating it
Quoting Hurricane1216:
While you guys are talking about humans being human, I decided to draw Tropical Storm Beryl as it made landfall on Florida.
What do you guys think?

Its amazing you are really an artist btw what is the topic tonight people?
Quoting allancalderini:
Its amazing you are really an artist btw what is the topic tonight people?


The topic is anything but the tropics.
Quoting angiest:


The topic is anything but the tropics.
hahaha thanks:)
Unmanned NASA Storm Sentinels Set for Hurricane Study
ScienceDaily (June 1, 2012)





The autonomously-flown NASA Global Hawk aircraft are well-suited for hurricane investigations. They can over-fly hurricanes at altitudes greater than 18,300 meters (60,000 feet), and fly up to 28 hours at a time -- something piloted aircraft would find nearly impossible to do. Global Hawks were used in the agency's 2010 Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) hurricane mission and the Global Hawk Pacific (GloPac) environmental science mission. The Global Hawks will deploy from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia and are based at NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center on Edwards Air Force Base, Calif.

"Hurricane intensity can be very hard to predict because of an insufficient understanding of how clouds and wind patterns within a storm interact with the storm's environment," said Scott Braun, HS3 mission principal investigator and research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "HS3 seeks to improve our understanding of these processes by taking advantage of the surveillance capabilities of the Global Hawk along with measurements from a suite of advanced instruments.

"One aircraft will sample the environment of storms while the other will measure eyewall and rainband winds and precipitation," Braun continued. HS3 will examine the large-scale environment that tropical storms form in and move through and how that environment affects the inner workings of the storms.

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:
Once again, CMC and NGP compared with GFS are more agressive developing a Low coming out from SE Conus....



Wow, yet another storm born off the SE coast. Might be an active year for those folks if we keep this up.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Wow, yet another storm born off the SE coast. Might be an active year for those folks if we keep this up.


GFS and ECMWF aren't too aggressive with it.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Wow, yet another storm born off the SE coast. Might be an active year for those folks if we keep this up.


The same situation from both models was seen with Beryl.... We have to wait 4 days...
Quoting KoritheMan:


GFS and ECMWF aren't too aggressive with it.


I never expected them to be aggressive, honestly. But still kinda interesting that we have seen some homegrown (and quite unusually early I might add) development, especially off the SE coast. The homegrown development so far would surely be an indication of what's to come in the 2012 Hurricane Season.
CryoSat Goes to Sea

Link

ScienceDaily (May 28, 2012) — CryoSat was launched in 2010 to measure sea-ice thickness in the Arctic, but data from the Earth-observing satellite have also been exploited for other studies. High-resolution mapping of the topography of the ocean floor is now being added to the ice mission's repertoire.



Gravity field over the Pacific Ocean’s Emperor Seamounts based on CryoSat, ERS and Geosat satellite altimeter measurements of ocean-surface height. At this scale, the gravity field of the ocean reflects seafloor topography, called bathymetry. The improved radar measurements from CryoSat will be used to improve bathymetry. The measurements will be used in the next generation of the seafloor maps in Google Earth. (Credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography/NOAA)
Quoting CypressJim08:


There has been a lot of talk of the high currently in the GOM sliding east and parking itself just off the east coast of Florida, helping to usher in the easterly flow required for our "normal" afternoon thunderstorms. It is still a little early to get our hopes up for the "rainy season" to begin, but that pattern would sure help.



We already got an early start to the rainy season. It's a bit less so for now, but the real season may hit us pretty decently.
Quoting tropicfreak:


I never expected them to be aggressive, honestly.


Right, then it probably doesn't mean much. :P
Quoting KoritheMan:


GFS and ECMWF aren't too aggressive with it.
have you make your Alberto TCR? I think I didn`t see it.
What got y'all off on discussing animals?
Seems like you will experience Warmer nights if you live near a Large wind farm.... What other effects will be discovered?


Night-Warming Effect Found Over Large Wind Farms in Texas

ScienceDaily (Apr. 30, 2012) — Large wind farms in certain areas in the United States appear to affect local land surface temperatures, according to a paper published April 30 in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Link
whats the level of the SAL..ANYONE???
Oklahoma City Thunder won tonight, enjoying some strawberry shortcake, and preparing to go to Tennessee for the summer. Life's good.
On this day in 2001, TS Allison made landfall in Texas, eventually causing the most damage for a TS in U.S. history.



Quoting allancalderini:
have you make your Alberto TCR? I think I didn`t see it.


I've made Alberto and Beryl's. I'll post them again I suppose.

------------------------------------------------- ------------------------

Tropical Storm Alberto [AL01]

AL012012

19 May - 22 May

Alberto was an out of season tropical storm, the first of two, that developed in the month of May in the north Atlantic. Alberto did not affect land.

a. Storm history

Alberto's origins appear to have begun as early as 10 May. During this time, satellite and water vapor imagery images showed that a well-defined upper-tropospheric cold low, accompanied by a well-marked cold front, entered west Texas. The front entered the Gulf of Mexico early on 12 May. Although the front gradually decayed, it became quasi-stationary over the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly in response to being sandwiched between two high pressure areas. During this time, the front produced intermittent clusters of showers and thunderstorms. The preexisting large-scale cyclonic flow was reinforced in this area by the passage of several shortwave perturbations in the semipermanent mid-latitude low pressure belt. The associated cloudiness moved across the Florida peninsula, and entered the western Atlantic on 16 May. The activity moved steadily northeastward and soon became entangled with an approaching trough.

The southern portion of this activity became stationary over the western Atlantic waters, while the northern portion of the trough continued moving northward. Around 1200 UTC 17 May, satellite and radar animations showed that a cloud mass formed over central South Carolina, possibly associated with a weak mesoscale convective system (MCS). This system moved offshore shortly after 0000 UTC 18 May, and later ASCAT data indicated the presence of a small surface circulation. The small low continued to become better organized, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed from it around 1200 UTC 18 May, while centered about 100 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given.

The depression became a tropical storm about 6 hr later. Initially, Alberto was embedded in a region of weak steering currents, and drifted slowly southwest. Based on a nearby ship report, the cyclone reached its estimated peak intensity of 50 kt around 2100 UTC. Soon thereafter, the tropical storm began to weaken under increasing southwesterly shear. In addition, water vapor imagery during this time suggests that Alberto was ingesting a very dry airmass over the southeastern United States, which likely counteracted the otherwise favorable sea surface temperature regime of the Gulf Stream. Synoptic steering currents gradually became more defined as a weak upper-level trough moved through the Ohio Valley, and Alberto responded with a gradual turn to the south and east, on a track well offshore the southeastern United States coast.

Continuously battered by marginal atmospheric and thermodynamic parameters -- namely dry air and wind shear, Alberto weakened to a tropical depression near 0000 UTC 22 May. At that time, the center became almost completely exposed to the west of a diminishing area of showers. Convection subsequently increased, but this activity was disorganized, and is not assumed to have been sufficient to bring Alberto back to a tropical storm. Later that day, around 1200 UTC, the cyclone became a remnant low while located approximately 160 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Moving northeastward, the remnant low lost its identity within a broad and nearly-stationary trough that extended from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Bermuda. This same trough would soon assist in the formation of Tropical Storm Beryl.
Quoting CypressJim08:
Can someone give a quick synopsis of the moisture in the gulf, and what if any chances it brings rain to the SW Florida area?


Good chance you will get wet by the morning. It is holding together pretty good. These are typical features this time of year. We used to get them a few times a week, but not much the last 15 years. At one time you could almost set your clock by them. There were Junes where is rained every day of the month. It was always our rainiest month.

The Florida East Coast always got over 60 inches per year

Tropical Storm Beryl [AL02]

AL0212

26 May - 30 May

Beryl was the second out of season tropical storm to form in the Atlantic during 2012. Its formation marked the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms formed during the month of May. In addition, Beryl's landfall near Jacksonville as a 60 kt tropical storm makes it the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone landfall on record for the United States. The previous record was held by Subtropical Storm Alpha, which struck the Georgia coast with 50 kt winds in May of 1972.

a. Storm history

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 12 May, and is believed to have been the precursor to Beryl. The wave was accompanied by some deep convection as it emerged from the coast. Thereafter, the wave become largely indistinct as it marched across the Atlantic, and its entrance into the western Caribbean on 21 May is based largely on extrapolation and continuity. Subsequently, the wave began to interact with a preexisting area of anomalous southwesterly flow encompassing a distance from the far eastern Pacific to Bermuda. This large-scale flow pattern, which has shown to be quite favorable for the initiation of thunderstorm development, could have been triggered by the upward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was making its way across the far eastern Pacific and adjacent Caribbean Sea at that time. Strong westerly shear prevented significant development while the system was in the Caribbean.

In the wake of Alberto, a small trough became established over the eastern seaboard, which forced the disorganized disturbance toward the east-northeast. The system crossed eastern Cuba early on 24 May, and entered the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas later that day. Surface observations from Grand Bahama indicated westerly winds as early as 1200 UTC 25 May as the disturbance passed to the east, providing evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. The low moved northeastward at about 15 mph during this time, embedded in broad southwesterly flow associated with the trough. Under the influence of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the system began to acquire organized deep convection near the center. While such an evolution would typically presage tropical cyclone formation, analysis of satellite and water vapor imagery indicates that the surface low was collocated with an upper low that had apparently been spawned from the same trough that recurved Alberto. This prevented the convection from forming directly over the center. In addition, the system initially lacked upper-level outflow, another distinct characteristic of a tropical cyclone.

Late on 25 May, the trough weakened, leaving the system in a region of weak steering. Owing to the influence of the upper low, the designation of the system as a cyclone at 0000 UTC 26 May is considered to be subtropical. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given. Beryl was initially trapped in a region of weak steering, and moved only slowly southwest. A large blocking pattern began to amplify over the eastern United States at this time, which caused the cyclone to gradually accelerate. Based on microwave data and satellite imagery, Beryl is estimated to have transformed into a tropical cyclone near 1800 UTC 27 May while centered about 110 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. The cyclone's winds are estimated to have been around 55 kt at this time.

As it rounded the southern periphery of the ridge, Beryl turned westward throughout much of the 27th. Under light shear and warm waters, the cyclone strengthened, reaching a peak of 60 kt shortly before landfall along the northeastern Florida coast near Jacksonville Beach just after 0400 UTC 28 May. The cyclone appeared to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane, as doppler visuals indicated a developing eyewall. Following the typical progression, Beryl began to weaken as it moved inland. Concurrently, the cyclone slowed significantly, which was followed by a gradual turn to the north and northeast around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Indeed, the forward speed had decreased so much that the cyclone became essentially stationary near the Georgia/Florida border for about twelve hours beginning around 0000 UTC 29 May. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression near 1200 UTC 29 May while still over northern Florida about 15 miles south of the Georgia border. It should be noted that it took Beryl roughly 38 hours to weaken to a tropical depression after landfall -- a rather anomalous inland decay rate, especially for a system of Beryl's strength.

The slow weakening of the tropical cyclone while moving overland is likely attributable to Beryl's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Its slow movement enabled it to develop a well-defined and persistent inflow band to the east, which helped to continue mixing the strong winds aloft to the surface. Interestingly, water vapor imagery shortly after landfall indicated dry air and some westerly shear impinging on the cyclone's western periphery, which kept much of the associated precipitation in well-defined bands to the east of the center. By around 1200 UTC 29 May, Beryl began to accelerate. As Beryl neared the South Carolina near 0600 UTC, the cloud pattern began to become more suggestive of an extratropical cyclone as the storm began to interact with a cold front moving across the northeastern United States. Synoptic data suggest that this process was complete six hours later, when the system was very near the North Carolina coast.
Quoting windshear1993:
whats the level of the SAL..ANYONE???


Severe Nuclear Reactor Accidents Likely Every 10 to 20 Years, European Study Suggests ScienceDaily (May 22, 2012)



---------Based on the operating hours of all civil nuclear reactors and the number of nuclear meltdowns that have occurred, scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz have calculated that such events may occur once every 10 to 20 years (based on the current number of reactors) -- some 200 times more often than estimated in the past. The researchers also determined that, in the event of such a major accident, half of the radioactive caesium-137 would be spread over an area of more than 1,000 kilometres away from the nuclear reactor.------------

Link

So after all, Looks like we will have to move to the southern hemisphere...
Quoting bappit:
What got y'all off on discussing animals?



It all started with me talking about how I found it rather freaky that lobsters are dropped into boiling water while alive, and how I personally don't like it all.

I'm sorry if I got people upset over the whole thing, but whatever.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like you will experience Warmer nights if you live near a Large wind farm....

Nobody lives "near" those things. Texas is a big place.
No problem.
Quoting Jedkins01:



It all started with me talking about how I found it rather freaky that lobsters are dropped into boiling water while alive, and how I personally don't like it all.

I'm sorry if I got people upset over the whole thing, but whatever.

Remember, if the water is boiling, they die near instantly. (I say "near", because it might take all of a second)

Torture is dropping them into water that isn't boiling.
Quoting windshear1993:
whats the level of the SAL..ANYONE???


Here is a pretty good way to check the SAL

Check it out
Quoting Grothar:


Good chance you will get wet by the morning. It is holding together pretty good. These are typical features this time of year. We used to get them a few times a week, but not much the last 15 years. At one time you could almost set your clock by them. There were Junes where is rained every day of the month. It was always our rainiest month.

The Florida East Coast always got over 60 inches per year



I'm expecting a lot of rain up here in Central Florida later this week, potentially several inches. It's hard to say how much will occur in South Florida though for a number of reasons, one being energy associated with the stalling front, how much will exist as it heads further south.
Quoting bluheelrtx:

Nobody lives "near" those things. Texas is a big place.


If someone lives down stream where the wind is supposed to reach the area where a town or a city is located, the effects could be felt, due to the absorption of the farm of that natural energy....
Quoting sunlinepr:


If someone lives down stream where the wind is supposed to reach the area where a town or a city is located, the effects could be felt, due to the absorption of the farm of that natural energy....


It's not like it absorbs it.. the wind simply blows through them.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm expecting a lot of rain up here in Central Florida later this week, potentially several inches. It's hard to say how much will occur in South Florida though for a number of reasons, one being energy associated with the stalling front, how much will exist as it heads further south.


You won't get a drop, we're going to get it all. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:


If someone lives down stream where the wind is supposed to reach the area where a town or a city is located, the effects could be felt, due to the absorption of the farm of that natural energy....

It doesn't absorb the energy. If it did, there would be little bits of matter falling here and there. (E=mc^2)

It redirects the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical energy, which is then used to propel electrons in a magnetic circuit... what we know as electricity. It will create turbulence, but the "loss" of energy provided by the wind is infitesmial, at best
Quoting tornadodude:


It's not like it absorbs it.. the wind simply blows through them.


The people or the farms?
Quoting Grothar:


The people or the farms?


Well, the people of course silly.... :p
Quoting Grothar:


The people or the farms?


Depending on what part of Texas, it could very well go through the people.
Good evening everyone!
Quoting jeffs713:

It doesn't absorb the energy. If it did, there would be little bits of matter falling here and there. (E=mc^2)

It redirects the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical energy, which is then used to propel electrons in a magnetic circuit... what we know as electricity. It will create turbulence, but the "loss" of energy provided by the wind is infitesmial, at best


Thanks, I thought the loss was higher...

----Some of the wind’s kinetic energy is lost as friction, as it passes over and around obstructions such as trees, houses and mountains.
At a wind farm, some of the wind’s kinetic energy is harvested and changed into mechanical energy by turning a turbine, and then into electrical energy that flows into power lines.

The first step in reducing the effects of turbulence on local hydrometeorological conditions is to identify regions around the world where wind energy is high and frictional dissipation also is high, Baidya Roy said. “Building wind farms in regions where there is already a lot of kinetic energy dissipation would help to minimize the intrusion to the natural kinetic energy cycle.”------
Anyone can post a Radar animation of that supercell going into N Texas?
This is the first hurricane I actually remember. 1948. Yes, 1948, not 1648.



A few weeks later, we got another one. Had it been a little further North, it could have been worse than the first one.

Hey TD, it looks like you are in the wrong place.

Quoting charlottefl:


Well, the people of course silly.... :p


I just like clarification. :)
Quoting Grothar:


The people or the farms?


The people....

Link
Quoting tornadodude:


Depending on what part of Texas, it could very well go through the people.


It just reminded me of a funny story from the "Dust Bowl era in Texas and Oklahoma. The farmers, as you know, were practically ruined. Many had to mortgage their farms. The story goes that a farmer went into town and asked for a mortgage on his property. The banker said, "Well, I will have to go out and look at it" The farmer replied, "You don't have to, it is blowing by you right now."

Quoting Grothar:
Hey TD, it looks like you are in the wrong place.



Whoa, that's plenty of convection there, how come south FL is only at 30% chance of rain tomorrow?
Quoting Grothar:
Hey TD, it looks like you are in the wrong place.



Yeah, nice and clear here. haha Ive had plenty of storms this season tho
Quoting Grothar:


It just reminded me of a funny story from the "Dust Bowl era in Texas and Oklahoma. The farmers, as you know, were practically ruined. Many had to mortgage their farms. The story goes that a farmer went into town and asked for a mortgage on his property. The banker said, "Well, I will have to go out and look at it" The farmer replied, "You don't have to, it is blowing by you right now."

almost 1 in the morning must be runnin the laptop under the covers again
Quoting RussianWinter:


Whoa, that's plenty of convection there, how come south FL is only at 30% chance of rain tomorrow?


They don't want to scare us.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
almost 1 in the morning must be runnin the laptop under the covers again


Everyone is sleeping. I just got up and went into the den. I NEVER have a laptop under the covers.
Quoting Grothar:


It just reminded me of a funny story from the "Dust Bowl era in Texas and Oklahoma. The farmers, as you know, were practically ruined. Many had to mortgage their farms. The story goes that a farmer went into town and asked for a mortgage on his property. The banker said, "Well, I will have to go out and look at it" The farmer replied, "You don't have to, it is blowing by you right now."



LOL a classic
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


Nigel,what are you doing up this late?


i hope this is a glitch
This guy is so happy with Wind Farms that he went to inspect them flying over them.... 3/30
Link
Quoting Grothar:


Nigel,what are you doing up this late?

It's 11:49PM in Jamaica, so it's not very late and my birthday will be in a few minutes
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i hope this is a glitch


It looks like a cataract surgery, What is it?
Quoting nigel20:

It's 11:49PM in Jamaica, so it's not very late and my birthday will be in a few minutes


Oh, I keep forgetting you are an hour behind us.
Still showing this but loses it before landfall.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i hope this is a glitch


What does that Sun satellite take mean?
Quoting nigel20:

It's 11:49PM in Jamaica, so it's not very late and my birthday will be in a few minutes


Happy Birthday Nigel. :)
Quoting Grothar:


It looks like a cataract surgery, What is it?
its the sun i guess SDO site is having some issues with the scope

here is another shot

Quoting nigel20:

It's 11:49PM in Jamaica, so it's not very late and my birthday will be in a few minutes
happy b day friend
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Happy Birthday Nigel. :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
happy b day friend

Thanks guys...much appreciated!
anyway time to check out
take care all
Happy birthday, nigel! Have a fantastic time, bro!
Quoting KoritheMan:
Happy birthday, nigel! Have a fantastic time, bro!

Thank you very much!
Picture from my friend Steve of the storm in Montana today

Quoting tornadodude:
Picture from my friend Steve of the storm in Montana today



Be-YOO-tif-ul.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anyway time to check out
take care all

I'm off to bed as well...good night everyone!
Quoting nigel20:

Thank you very much!


How old will you be, if you don't mind my asking?
Quoting KoritheMan:


How old will you be, if you don't mind my asking?

I am now 23...good night everyone!
This is a long way out but will be something to watch.


















Yep Crazy weather extreams at my house this week
http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweath er/getForecast?query=36092&wuSelect=WEATHER

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

82° F | -33° F

86° F | 64° F

90° F | -35° F

90° F | 66° F

90° F | 63° F
T-storms
70% chance of precipitation
Chance of T-storms
20% chance of precipitation
Clear Partly Cloudy Clear
Hourly
Hourly
Hourly
Hourly
Hourly
'Planets aligned' for wild weather in NSW

A MAJOR storm front is closing in on Sydney, bringing gale-force winds, torrential rain and possible flash flooding.

A severe weather warning has been in place along NSW's coast since yesterday as the weather band moves north from Victoria.

The wild weather is expected to hit Sydney around peak hour, with State Emergency Services (SES) crews turning out in force.

Volunteers in Manly fear big waves could threaten waterfront properties.

"I am preparing at the moment. The unit is filling sandbags right now," SES Manly spokesman Joerg Lindner said.

"It is an unusual situation with the combination of the high tide caused by the full moon, the rain and the winds."

He said the water level was expected to peak around 9pm (AEST) today.

Senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Julie Evans, said heavy rain of up to 50mm was expected to hit Sydney but authorities were more concerned about gale-force winds of up to 120km/h.
"The main message isn't about a rain event, it's very much a wind and wave event," she said.

The mix of gusts and high tides was a potent combination for the state's waterline.

"The planets are aligned, I suppose you could say," she said. "The very high tides this evening could mean you will see an inundation of low-lying coastal areas."

The SES is door-knocking homes in Tempe, in Sydney's inner west, to warn of possible flash flooding from the Cooks River, Macquarie Radio reports.

NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) spokesman Ben Shepherd said volunteers were hard at work cleaning up after the storm along the south coast, where toppled trees had blocked roads and damaged property.

"We've got one house extensively damaged in Malua Bay. A tree's gone down," he said.

He said the rain had helped lower the risk of fire from downed power lines.

Farther inland, the BOM has had reports of snow falling in Oberon, near Orange in the state's west.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (975 hPa) located at 27.1N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
220 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 31.9N 141.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Southeast of Hachijo-jima
45 HRS: 38.4N 149.3E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
I haven't seen the GOM this moist in quite a while.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Perturbation Tropicale 14-20112012
10:00 AM RET June 5 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 14 (1003 hPa) located at 9.0S 62.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 9.3S 60.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 9.4S 58.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 9.0S 55.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 8.4S 53.1E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Additional Information
====================

Strong winds are expected to increase in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect, during the trade wind surge. Vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken during the next two days.. so system may deepen as is tracks generally westward.
Coastal Sydney has had wind gusts of 128km/h which is Cat 2 Cyclone strength.
Quoting aspectre:
Breaker, breaker...


I think I just found a new desktop background.
I love it when the GOM is this moist. Nice and juicy. Strong storms possible north of Tampa Bay today due to frontal proximity. If we can get some convergence or collision of outflow boundaries from storms to the north of Tampa and storms out in the Gulf, things could get interesting.
maybe invest soon
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
maybe invest soon


Morning
Well that has certainly been hanging around
Quoting Grothar:


It just reminded me of a funny story from the "Dust Bowl era in Texas and Oklahoma. The farmers, as you know, were practically ruined. Many had to mortgage their farms. The story goes that a farmer went into town and asked for a mortgage on his property. The banker said, "Well, I will have to go out and look at it" The farmer replied, "You don't have to, it is blowing by you right now."



was the guy a nice dude? im sure you remember: P
Good morning... You don't see this too often

Quoting AussieStorm:
Coastal Sydney has had wind gusts of 128km/h which is Cat 2 Cyclone strength.
tavaruafriday!
0z GFS continued the pattern of alternating between Atlantic and East Pac development...

6z GFS showed East Pac development again but also had this

544 am and we have cumulonimbus clouds boomin skyward.

Hot and humid.
BREAKING NEWS...... Flights CANCELLED at Sydney Airport as east coast low continues to lash Sydney. Baggage handlers have called it quits as conditions are to dangerous to work in.
Winds @ Sydney International Airport,
57km/h gusting to 76km/h. At it's peak Sydney Airport wx station reported 80km/h winds with 100km/h gusts.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFS showed East Pac development again but also had this



Which run had more information in it?!
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
maybe invest soon

30-40kts of wind shear. I don't think so.
Quoting AussieStorm:

30-40kts of wind shear. I don't think so.


Shear tendency is going lower. Still don think it will develop.
00z CMC is farther east and crosses Florida into the SE atlantic



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
427 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012

LONG TERM...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. THIS TIME LAST YEAR
HIGH PRESSURE BECAME DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FROM THE OZARKS WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE
AN OPPRESSIVE HEAT WAVE, HELPING TO KICK OFF THE SEVERE DROUGHT
OVER THE REGION. THE PICTURE IS COMPLETELY CHANGED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND EXTENDING BEYOND THE
LONG RANGE PORTION OF THIS FORECAST AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY BECOMES AN UPPER LOW NEAR TEXAS AND LOUISIANA IN A
BLOCKING PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE WELCOME RELIEF IN POWER
CONSUMPTION AND IN OUR ENERGY BILLS, NOT TO MENTION BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND LOWER IRRIGATION COSTS COMPARED WITH LAST YEAR AT
THIS TIME.
I do not expect anything tropical out of the disturbed weather in the gulf due to high wind shear, but I think that once that moisture combines with the front dropping through FL that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop somewhere North of Tampa and South of Jacksonville. The nature coast will most likely see the impacts of this line. Across Tampa Bay, breezy to windy conditions are likely with a west wind of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the beaches. Rain chances are lower over the Tampa Bay area and severe storms do not appear to be a threat for Tampa Bay at this time.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I do not expect anything tropical out of the disturbed weather in the gulf due to high wind shear, but I think that once that moisture combines with the front dropping through FL that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop somewhere North of Tampa and South of Jacksonville. The nature coast will most likely see the impacts of this line. Across Tampa Bay, breezy to windy conditions are likely with a west wind of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the beaches. Rain chances are lower over the Tampa Bay area and severe storms do not appear to be a threat for Tampa Bay at this time.


So basically the Tampa Shield is up?
Quoting LargoFl:
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I do not expect anything tropical out of the disturbed weather in the gulf due to high wind shear, but I think that once that moisture combines with the front dropping through FL that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop somewhere North of Tampa and South of Jacksonville. The nature coast will most likely see the impacts of this line. Across Tampa Bay, breezy to windy conditions are likely with a west wind of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the beaches. Rain chances are lower over the Tampa Bay area and severe storms do not appear to be a threat for Tampa Bay at this time.

What's the chance this does an Albert and develop off the East coast?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


So basically the Tampa Shield is up?


After looking at the parameters again, the best chance of severe will be north of Brooksville and south of Southern GA. So yea, Tampa Shield is here to save the day.
Quoting AussieStorm:

What's the chance this does an Albert and develop off the East coast?


Once the moisture moves off the east coast it will still be entrenched in high shear so I seriously doubt development.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
519 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-061030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
519 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAIL: NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.
958 AussieStorm: Coastal Sydney has had wind gusts of 128km/h

Meant to ask earlier, are winds high enough to produce with 80mph gusts somewhat expectable in Sydney in the way that SantaAna wind gusts are expectable in SouthernCalifornia?
ie Happens several times a year? Or is this an extraordinary event?

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
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