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Richard not strengthening yet; Category 4 Giri hits Myanmar; Megi approaching China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:04 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

Tropical Storm Richard remains a minimal strength tropical storm this morning, but is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. Richard is the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, putting 2010 into 6th place for the greatest number of named storms in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005 (28 named storms), 1933 (21 named storms), 1995 (19 named storms), 1887 (19 named storms), and 1969 (18 named storms) had more.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is currently in Richard, but has not seen much change in the storm's winds. As of 9:45am EDT this morning, top winds at flight level of 1200 feet were 46 mph, and the top surface winds seen so far by their SFMR instrument were 49 mph. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is on Richard's weak side about 80 miles northwest of the center. Winds at the buoy were 34 mph, gusting to 43 mph, at 8:44am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has become more organized since last night, with a large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds forming over the center. A CDO is created when strong thunderstorms near the center of a developing tropical storm create updrafts that shoot moisture high into the atmosphere. When the moisture hits the bottom of the stratosphere, the moisture condenses into cirrus clouds that flatten out and spread horizontally into the CDO, which is kind of like a giant version of the flat anvil top one sees at the top of mature thunderstorms. The low-level center of Richard is no longer nearly exposed to view, and heavy thunderstorms are now firing off near the center, a sign that wind shear has relaxed and serious intensification can progress. Richard has several curved spiral bands forming on the south and east sides, and upper level outflow is improving on all sides except the west. Satellite intensity estimates put Richard's strength at about 50 - 55 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Total accumulated rainfall for Richard predicted by the 2am EDT (6Z) October 22, 2010 run of the GFDL model. The model expects top rains from Richard in the 4 - 8 inch rain (dark green colors) with a few isolated areas of 8+ inches. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, today through Tuesday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5am NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 4% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 2am EDT (6Z) model runs are in much better agreement on the path of Richard compared to yesterday. Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and Richard will move little today. By Saturday, Richard will begin moving due west in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba any longer, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 54%. Belize City is next highest, at 42%, and the odds have dropped to 28% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS, GFS, and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, steady weakening is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 100 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri is making landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri is one of the strongest cyclones ever to hit Myanmar, and has winds 10 mph stronger than Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri is hitting a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not low-lying, and the major threat from Giri will be wind damage and flooding from heavy rains. Giri put on an impressive rapid intensification burst over the past 18 hours, strengthening from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 145 mph Category 4 storm by 2am this morning.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 3 people dead and more than 20 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday morning on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi remains a large and powerful Category 2 typhoon with 110 mph winds today, but rising wind shear is beginning to erode the northern portion of the storm's eyewall. It likely that Megi's eyewall will collapse before landfall, resulting in substantial weakening to a Category 1 storm. Megi will still be a very large and powerful storm capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan all day today, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 8:20am EDT (20:20 Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

TY Jeff
Yes
Thanks for the update, Doc.
Dr. Masters thank you.
Centre was well south of where they thought it was.




I would want to double check that 1010 vortex, that's substantial weakening if true.

What you all wanna bet the models will shift back to the right as they have over shifted.......that happens more often than not. Just sayn
Quoting TampaSpin:
What you all wanna bet the models will shift back to the right as they have over shifted.......that happens more often than not. Just sayn



My benchmark is for tomorrow morning 12Z runs. However, they are remaining rather consistent on the current track.
Complete Update

I don't think they have a firm grasp on Richard yet... I think he is still playing Survivor.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
At 22/1500, JTWC is posting Tropical cyclone Giri in the Bay of Bengal as equivalent to a category V hurricane immediately prior to landfall; winds of 135 knots (that's a trifling 155 mph), gusting to 165 knots (185 mph) - intensification of 85 knots within 24 hours, which nobody has forecast. Breathtaking in all respects.
The question being whether the government better prepared the Burmese people for this hurricane.

TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned westward to (8.1degrees west of) WestSouthWest
from its previous heading of (3.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~9mph(~14.5km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)

NHC is treating the latest position change as a center relocation ("Moving: stationary") rather than as the actual movement of the storm's center.

TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 12pmGMT - 16.6n80.6w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*30knots*16.5n80.7w*
21Oct 03pmGMT - 16.2n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#3
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.1n80.4w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*
21Oct 09pmGMT - 16.0n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Oct 03amGMT - 15.9n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5
22Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
22Oct 09amGMT - 16.0n80.3w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#6
22Oct 12pmGMT - 15.9n80.7w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#6A

* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers.

Copy&paste 16.6n80.6w, 16.2n80.4w, 16.1n80.4w, 16.0n80.4w, 16.0n80.5w-15.9n80.5w, 15.9n80.5w-15.8n80.4w, 15.8n80.4w-16.0n80.3w, 16.0n80.3w-15.9n80.7w, peu into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Quoting adb42:
At 22/1500, JTWC is posting Tropical cyclone Giri in the Bay of Bengal as equivalent to a category V hurricane immediately prior to landfall; winds of 135 knots (that's a trifling 155 mph), gusting to 165 knots (185 mph) - intensification of 85 knots within 24 hours, which nobody has forecast. Breathtaking in all respects.


That's insane. SURPRISE!!

That's a nasty surprise.
Quoting NotJFV:

rita are you saddened that Florida will not be leveled with a cat 3 storm now? I know you must be in a somber state.


Delighted that the wishcasters aren't gonna get their storm! lol
Quoting TampaSpin:
What you all wanna bet the models will shift back to the right as they have over shifted.......that happens more often than not. Just sayn
Especially this time of year..:)
TS Richard IR Loop

REPOST...

Oh dear...I KNEW I should have been tracking this one!



Category four Cyclone Giri rapidly intensified last night (EDT time) from a weak tropical storm to a potentially catastrophic category major cyclone. This looks like another major disaster for Myanmar (Burma), which was hit by Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which similarly strengthened to a category four prior to landfall. Giri has made a direct landfall in Kyaukpyu, Myanmar, a town of approximately 25,000 people.



This is Giri at peak strength. Death toll and damages are unknown.



The above track is for NARGIS in 2008. That storm hit the Irrawady Delta, and the Yangon/Rangoon area, a very highly populated and low-lying region. Nargis killed about 140,000 people and caused $10 billion USD in damage.



Animation of Giri making landfall today. Here is the approximate storm surge threat in the area affected by Giri.

Giri strengthened very rapidly in the Bay of Bengal. It was situated over 29C SSTs when it made the jump from a tropical storm to a category four in less than 24 hours. Here is a news link to the storm's landfall.



Giri's lowest pressure was 950 mb, whereas Nargis' was 962 mb.
This Recon flight is especially confusing...
West Pacific Floaters


16W





17W




Megi

06 Late Cycle Dynamic Runs

its because the center is more north they thought it would be must of saw a false one
Thanks Dr. Masters.
As always,Your expert analysis and guidance backed up with factual data is greatly appreciated.
Off to the State Fair here on a beautiful day!
Thanks again,
v/r
Moe
Good morning everyone. Richard is yet another 2010 head scratcher. A wait and see, which seems to be the theme for this season!

Ahead of the 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Wilma, here is a video you may not have seen before:

Wilma: The Untold Story

We'll be adding content for the next week as we remember Hurricane Wilma and the effects she had on South Florida. Feel free to submit stories, images or video. Thanks!
Quoting bjdsrq:


Especially because you ARE "TampaSpin" lol


No because this is what happens with models this time of year usually.
Something to watch at buoy 42057. Winds have significantly increased to the west side of the center, while pressure has increased a bit also. Need to watch for more samples, but this implies a strengthening storm that is still moving ESE away from the buoy.
Link


Typhoon Megi forecast. An unusual storm in that it turned north into a subtropical ridge and rapidly increased its eye diameter in the face of dry air.



What an active day in the global tropics today. A convective area west of 90L could bear watching. 29C SSTs still stretch from the Yucatan back to the Main Development and Cape Verde regions.

Thanks Dr. M: A CDO is created when strong thunderstorms near the center of a developing tropical storm create updrafts that shoot moisture high into the atmosphere. When the moisture hits the bottom of the stratosphere, the moisture condenses into cirrus clouds that flatten out and spread horizontally into the CDO, which is kind of like a giant version of the flat anvil top one sees at the top of mature thunderstorms.

Nice concise and informative explanation of the mechanics of the CDO...........Thank You.
Very tight inner core with Giri prior to landfall, according to 89 GHz microwave.



Finer microwave (37 GHz) indicates that an ERC may have initiated shortly before landfall:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 14:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 14:07:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1531'N 8104'W (15.5167N 81.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 263 miles (423 km) to the S (175) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 12kts (~ 13.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the SSE (158) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 254 at 10kts (From the WSW at ~ 11.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the S (177) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25C (77F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25C (77F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22C (72F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:06:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the north quadrant at 14:22:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Models may very well shift further to the north again, but I'm liking this Honduras or Belize track more and more for Richard's future. That ridge is a bit stronger than I once thought. Folks down there really don't need another heavy rain event down there though.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Good morning everyone. Richard is yet another 2010 head scratcher. A wait and see, which seems to be the theme for this season!

Ahead of the 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Wilma, here is a video you may not have seen before:

Wilma: The Untold Story

We'll be adding content for the next week as we remember Hurricane Wilma and the effects she had on South Florida. Feel free to submit stories, images or video. Thanks!

Thanks for the video post. I'll have to check it out.
I am now, without a doubt, COMPLETELY confused with this Recon flight.

That's not even a TD.
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25�C (77�F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25�C (77�F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Models may very well shift further to the north again, but I'm liking this Honduras or Belize track more and more for Richard's future. That ridge is a bit stronger than I once thought. Folks down there really don't need another heavy rain event down there though.

am a bit north towards belize/yucatan line is
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Very tight inner core with Giri prior to landfall, according to 89 GHz microwave.



Finer microwave (37 GHz) indicates that an ERC may have initiated shortly before landfall:


A very healthy storm prior to landfall. Also, a storm on the upswing of a significant intensification phase prior to landfall. Charlie comes to mind right away.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Models may very well shift further to the north again, but I'm liking this Honduras or Belize track more and more for Richard's future. That ridge is a bit stronger than I once thought. Folks down there really don't need another heavy rain event down there though.


I agree. I am one that follows Models 90% and personal thoughts 10%. I have changed my input on my thoughts over the past years by following these thoughts.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Thanks for the video post. I'll have to check it out.
A lot of storms have taken a west, then W-SW path this late in October. Hattie in1961 comes to mind. That was a cat-5.
2 things could be wrong here either recons data is not working correctly or recon found the wrong center which it could be
FRIDAY 9:30 A.M.
INTERESTING RECON.

There has been no deepening, but....

... winds at the data buoy 100 miles north-northwest of the center are now gusting over gale force and the pressure there is lower than what the recon said it was when it passed over that site! And it's within a millibar of the center pressure (1007 via recon). In addition, unlike yesterday, there are many reports of winds over 35 knots with this.


I suspect the center is disjointed, with the mid-level center northeast of the low-level center. That means that this is still in an organizing state and until these are lined up there can be no rapid development feedback. But it there was ever a case for one, and I think have demonstrated skill in this with the ones that have done it (Alex, Hermine, Paula) that we could watch, this is one. However, this must line up first.

Overall, the structure has improved and with that kind of upward motion going off northeast of the center, this should line up.

Latest recon is confirming the idea that the low-level center may be a false idol as it has filled 3 mb to 1010, which is above the reported data buoy pressure and the center of the systems warm core is 40 miles northeast of the reported surface center.

Gotta admit, it is interesting.

Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree. I am one that follows Models 90% and personal thoughts 10%. I have changed my input on my thoughts over the past years by following these thoughts.


Tim... I have only had two cups of coffee so far... thats either really deep thinking... or you lost me completely.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree. I am one that follows Models 90% and personal thoughts 10%. I have changed my input on my thoughts over the past years by following these thoughts.

Taking account NHC analysis along with upper-level steering flows also is beneficial to a forecast among many other factors...but I think you and me most likely understand this...
Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree. I am one that follows Models 90% and personal thoughts 10%. I have changed my input on my thoughts over the past years by following these thoughts.
I never really thought about my thoughts until I thought it was time to consider thoughts.
I think JB is right on this one
Morning Pat & Nice to See You Back.........I took a long vacation from the Blog but starting to get to that time of the year (frontal passages with tornado threats as we head towards Winter) when severe weather will be an issue over the next few months......Have a Great One.
50. IKE
Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, steady weakening is to be expected......

from the doctor.

Have a nice Friday!
Quoting hydrus:
A lot of storms have taken a west, then W-SW path this late in October. Hattie in1961 comes to mind. That was a cat-5.

Hattie was a great example.
53. IKE
...RICHARD EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.9°N 80.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1006 mb

................................................

...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS....
11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 81.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
I give up... Tim is confusing me.. the HH is confusing me... I am going to work.. maybe that will make sense?





I will update the HH when I get there.
Richard's probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

56. IKE
57. IKE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 221441
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

DESPITE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUGGESTS THAT RICHARD IS BETTER
ORGANIZED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVELS WINDS WERE ABOUT 40 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 35
KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006-1007 MB. IN ADDITION...THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PERHAPS THE CENTER IS TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER
SOUTH. THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRENGTHENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER LIGHT AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND IS FARTHER FROM THE
CENTER THAN YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING RICHARD INTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER AN AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...
THOUGH THE CATEGORY TWO SOLUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF IS NOT
UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
BELOW...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE 48-HR AND
72-HR FORECASTS UP TO LANDFALL. AFTER THAT...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING RESTRENGTHENING
UNLIKELY.

A WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
STEER THE STORM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.8N 81.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 81.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 82.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 83.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.6N 85.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 88.4W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hattie was a great example.
Formed October 27, 1961
Dissipated November 1, 1961
Highest
winds
160 mph (260 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure ≤ 920 mbar (hPa; 27.17 inHg)
Fatalities 319 total
Damage $60.3 million (1961 USD)
$438 million (2010 USD)
Areas
affected Belize, Guatemala, Honduras
Part of the
1961 Atlantic hurricane season
These late season storms have been giving the models fits so far. I am not trusting models at all this early in the life cycle of the storm. Things likely will change again before all is said and done. Maybe another Matthew? Maybe not...
this richard is giving me agita (heartburn)..lol

also has bi-polar characteristics.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
These late season storms have been giving the models fits so far. I am not trusting models at all this early in the life cycle of the storm. Things likely will change again before all is said and done. Maybe another Matthew? Maybe not...

Matthew it could be. Maybe in a little stronger fashion, but you never know.



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Quoting hurricanejunky:
These late season storms have been giving the models fits so far. I am not trusting models at all this early in the life cycle of the storm. Things likely will change again before all is said and done. Maybe another Matthew? Maybe not...
The NAM still takes it W-NW toward the Northern Yucatan.Link
Quoting TampaSpin:
What you all wanna bet the models will shift back to the right as they have over shifted.......that happens more often than not. Just sayn


They may well shift some to the right but not by 90 degrees or something like that.

The models have a much better handle on the overall setup in the atmosphere over the next few days than they have previously. That is why they are coming together more.
I know the satelite presentation can be deceiving, but looks like a little motion to WNW to me!
Really, I give, lol.

Quoting FLWaterFront:


They may well shift some to the right but not by 90 degrees or something like that.

The models have a much better handle on the overall setup in the atmosphere over the next few days than they have previously. That is why they are coming together more.

Exactly.
Hopefully Oz hasn't left yet.
And now you see why I don't like to make predictions, especially for something like Richard...give it 24 hours and the models may be right back to where they were yesterday...then again, maybe not

LOL
It was born down there, it will die down there. May never survive over Yucatan
Quoting FLdewey:
Hopefully Oz hasn't left yet.


Nope...
TropicalStormRichard's heading had held steady at (8.1degrees west of) WestSouthWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 positions had remained ~9mph(~14.5km/h)

TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 03pmGMT - 16.2n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#3
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.1n80.4w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*
21Oct 09pmGMT - 16.0n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Oct 03amGMT - 15.9n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5
22Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
22Oct 09amGMT - 16.0n80.3w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#6
22Oct 12pmGMT - 15.9n80.7w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#6A
22Oct 03pmGMT - 15.8n81.1w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7

* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers.

Copy&paste 16.2n80.4w, 16.1n80.4w, 16.0n80.4w, 16.0n80.5w, 15.9n80.5w-15.8n80.4w, 15.8n80.4w-16.0n80.3w, 16.0n80.3w-15.9n80.7w, 15.9n80.7w-15.8n81.1w, peu into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Link
any body remember this bad lady
Maybe it will make it into the EPAC after all?
Honestly, I don't care how we get it, but we need rain. Richard can sit out there and just pump moisture up our way and I'd be happy. OC, I'm glad it held off for today and the weekend, as I'm canning the next couple of days. Being able to toss open the windows is fabulous. Pumpkin butter anyone?

Quoting RitaEvac:


Delighted that the wishcasters aren't gonna get their storm! lol


This is another strange phenomenon here. Are you delighted that the storm may not come to a US landmass, or are you delighted that people won't get their wish?

From now on I am just going to call it as I see it. What do you people care more about, rubbing other people's noses in sh*t, or not getting a storm? Because, it is often quite difficult to ascertain what you really care about.
Quoting Patrap:



Portlight Disaster Relief

CHRISTMAS IN HAITI


We began this year making a difference in Haiti in the months following the January 12 earthquake. Your contributions provided food, shelter, and water, as well as medical care, equipment and supplies for thousands of Haitians. We cut through bureaucratic red tape and made a significant direct impact.

But it's important to remember: there is still much suffering in Haiti. Over one million people, including tens of thousands of children, are still living in makeshift tent camps. Hope is scarce.

So...let's bring some Holiday Joy to Haiti's children. Let's end this year as we began it: making a difference in Haiti.

What: Christmas in Haiti It is a simple concept. We want to provide Christmas presents for Haitian children living in camps.

When: Over the next two months.

Where: Refugee camps in Haiti

Who: As many children in as many camps as we are able to serve.

How: Well...that's up to you. A contribution of $20 will provide a present for one child. The extent of our reach will depend upon the budget we raise. Our dream is to serve thousands. We'd love to arrange for Santa to visit some of the camps.

Please remember the children of Haiti this Christmas. Please support Christmas in Haiti with your thoughts, prayers...and, of course, your financial contribution.

You can use the PayPal button at www.portlight.org

Or you can make your check payable to: Portlight Strategies, Inc.

and send it to us at: 2043 Maybank Charleston SC 29412

Also....PLEASE share this message...forward it to your e-mail lists, post it to your Facebook page, Tweet it...whatever it takes to spread the story of our work.

Thank you for your faith in these efforts!!!!
Thanks Patrap. I will be sure to spread the word. I heard last night on the news that Haiti is now having outbreaks of Cholera. That can spread like wildfire with the lack of sanitation they have down there.
Quoting hydrus:
The NAM still takes it W-NW toward the Northern Yucatan.Link


I don't know that it would get stuck in Central America like Matthew did but I thought it may be possible. Obviously there is still the chance it comes out in the BOC/Northern Yucatan Peninsula and gets swept toward Florida West Coast but it's all way up in the air right now which leads me back to not believing the current models...
Quoting stormpetrol:
I know the satelite presentation can be deceiving, but looks like a little motion to WNW to me!


A WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
Quoting WeatherMum:
Honestly, I don't care how we get it, but we need rain. Richard can sit out there and just pump moisture up our way and I'd be happy. OC, I'm glad it held off for today and the weekend, as I'm canning the next couple of days. Being able to toss open the windows is fabulous. Pumpkin butter anyone?




Yummy!

I'm starting to sense extra crispy lawns and heavy water restrictions in the FL futures market.
Quoting kwgirl:
Thanks Patrap. I will be sure to spread the word. I heard last night on the news that Haiti is now having outbreaks of Cholera. That can spread like wildfire with the lack of sanitation they have down there.


Chemical toilets are scare and with the recent Rains and runoff from the Tent camps,,Cholera is becoming a ever increasing problem as of the latest ReliefWEB sources,

Thanks for relaying the message too.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I don't know that it would get stuck in Central America like Matthew did but I thought it may be possible. Obviously there is still the chance it comes back out in the BOC/Northern Yucatan Peninsula and gets swept toward Florida West Coast but it's all way up in the air right now which leads me back to not believing the models right now...


Either way FL will get rain from Richard sometime next week.
i will be back later, i see the track i predicted is happening.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
Link
any body remember this bad lady


Beautiful shot! A friend of mine in Saba got a taste of Paloma...rocked their world a bit...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Either way FL will get rain from Richard sometime next week.


We can only hope! This fire season is going to be brutal unless we can get some rain events soon!!
Quoting NOLALawyer:


This is another strange phenomenon here. Are you delighted that the storm may not come to a US landmass, or are you delighted that people won't get their wish?

From now on I am just going to call it as I see it. What do you people care more about, rubbing other people's noses in sh*t, or not getting a storm? Because, it is often quite difficult to ascertain what you really care about.


Both
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Nope...

It might come to him... save some gas $$$ ;-)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


We can only hope! This fire season is going to be brutal unless we can get some rain events soon!!
be careful with jeff's rain predictions. florida would be underwater with all the rain he has predicted this year. still waiting
Quoting FLdewey:

It might come to him... save some gas $$$ ;-)


True...but then I'd have to chase far and away...can't have everything I suppose!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Yummy!

I'm starting to sense extra crispy lawns and heavy water restrictions in the FL futures market.
The centipede grass is already on it's way to dormant. We are only 10 feet above sea level and use wells for all the irrigation. We are down hill from all the aquifers, so it's not as bad for us as it is to our north 20 miles. It's BONE dry in the peanut and cotton fields, but since it's harvest time...oh. add fresh ground peanut butter to the list of newly canned items. :P
Quoting hydrus:
I never really thought about my thoughts until I thought it was time to consider thoughts.


ROFL Hydrus ! That was funny!! Hi everyone, thanks Dr. Masters for the update...How is everyone? I am sitting here in SWLA wondering if Richard is gonna come this way..but I don't think so..our local mets are saying it's a possibility..so they are keeping a close eye on Richard....any thoughts???
96. JRRP
Quoting Joanie38:


ROFL Hydrus ! That was funny!! Hi everyone, thanks Dr. Masters for the update...How is everyone? I am sitting here in SWLA wondering if Richard is gonna come this way..but I don't think so..our local mets are saying it's a possibility..so they are keeping a close eye on Richard....any thoughts???
if it makes it that far north it will be a remnant low or just a rainmaker.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Either way FL will get rain from Richard sometime next week.


From your lips to God's ears, my friend.
Do not WORSHIP the Models every time a new run comes out.
Quoting WeatherMum:
The centipede grass is already on it's way to dormant. We are only 10 feet above sea level and use wells for all the irrigation. We are down hill from all the aquifers, so it's not as bad for us as it is to our north 20 miles. It's BONE dry in the peanut and cotton fields, but since it's harvest time...oh. add fresh ground peanut butter to the list of newly canned items. :P


You had to go and make that fresh peanut butter comment didn't you? MMMM, drizzle some honey. Time for lunch, lol, adios.
Im debating on whether worshiping this Kit-Kat or adding it to my Brunch.

TS Richard
RGB Image

The SPC has the North Texas under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms today, The SPC map shows a 5% chance of tornadoes over North TX today.


Here is an article Link I put together on the North Texas Weather Threat.
Hey guys I think the COC will reform further north near 16.5N 81.0W
Quoting Patrap:
Im debating on whether worshiping this Kit-Kat or adding it to my Brunch.

TS Richard
RGB Image

If it were a reeses, I would say worship every bite. Kit Kat--eh--maybe
Quoting Joanie38:


ROFL Hydrus ! That was funny!! Hi everyone, thanks Dr. Masters for the update...How is everyone? I am sitting here in SWLA wondering if Richard is gonna come this way..but I don't think so..our local mets are saying it's a possibility..so they are keeping a close eye on Richard....any thoughts???


If a storm enters the Gulf . . . Watch it.
104. scott39

They Dunk well in Hot coffee, better than a reese's,,but I'll consider yer pernt fo sho.
I see Patrap is back!!

Tricky Dick up to no good...
My comment box changed formats and I'm unable to switch it back. I've lost my link, bold, image buttons, etc.

Can someone WM me if they know how to restore this to the original configuration?

Thank you in advance!
Quoting scott39:
Do not WORSHIP the Models every time a new run comes out.
Now I lay me down to sleep.. I pray to model my soul to keep..And if I die before I wake..I pray to model my soul to keep..Model bless Mommy..Model bless Daddy..Model bless all the.....j.k....really....j.jk
Quoting pioggiasuper:


Not just underwater, but we all wouldnt have roofs either. With the number of major hurricanes he's said are coming here there wouldnt be any houses left. Thankfully he's just a wishcaster and not a forecaster.


And I would be rich from all of the overtime. Still broke too...
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


If a storm enters the Gulf . . . Watch it.
If it get anywhere near the northern gulf coast it will get sheared to death.
Quoting BLee2333:
My comment box changed formats and I'm unable to switch it back. I've lost my link, bold, image buttons, etc.

Can someone WM me if they know how to restore this to the original configuration?

Thank you in advance!


Try a re-start of your system first.

Dats what I usually do.
throw the models in the trash until we have a well difined llc,if richie can stregthen enough imo the chances of a path further north is begining to set up watch that trough dig in further south than forecast,by tomorrow shiuld have a bettr idea,but the models are slop at the moment and things should start trending northerly over the next 24hrs+......
66. stormpetrol 2:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2010
I know the satelite presentation can be deceiving, but looks like a little motion to WNW to me!


I AGREE....
I see the cooridinates by the NHC at 11AM are 15.8N/81.1W, but the Satelite loops and Images sure look different. I want to say the COC is more to the North a bit, above 16.0N, maybe 16.1N. I keep looking at Richard from the Visible, IR, and Water Vapor and it sure looks like that to me,....But the NHC has the technology and data that are more sophisticated than my naked eye....Amazing why I do not see the COC where they have it...Oh well, that is why it is storm tracking is such an enigma..
PATRAP:

Can't even quote! :(

Tried that. Even signed out, cleared caches, history, cookies, etc...

BTW, some folks were pretty worried about you. Were your ears burning yesterday?
Quoting divdog:
If it get anywhere near the northern gulf coast it will get sheared to death.

Yep. It would be toast.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


This is another strange phenomenon here. Are you delighted that the storm may not come to a US landmass, or are you delighted that people won't get their wish?

From now on I am just going to call it as I see it. What do you people care more about, rubbing other people's noses in sh*t, or not getting a storm? Because, it is often quite difficult to ascertain what you really care about.


+1000
Quoting Bordonaro:
The SPC has the North Texas under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms today, The SPC map shows a 5% chance of tornadoes over NW TX today.


Here is an article Link I put together on the North Texas Weather Threat.


That looks a little phallic, no? As far as rain is concerned, I would love to send all of the rain we will get in the next 6 months down to FL. I am sick of the upstate NY weather!
Plenty of moisture in the Eastern Atlantic..If some of it makes it to the Caribbean Sea, we may have some more activity brewing in November. Especially with the MJO approaching...
Quoting pioggiasuper:


Not just underwater, but we all wouldnt have roofs either. With the number of major hurricanes he's said are coming here there wouldnt be any houses left. Thankfully he's just a wishcaster and not a forecaster.


LOLOL
SQUAWK!!!
Quoting BLee2333:
PATRAP:

Can't even quote! :(

Tried that. Even signed out, cleared caches, history, cookies, etc...

BTW, some folks were pretty worried about you. Were your ears burning yesterday?


Well some body parts were tingling ..LOL

Was a nice break from here and I got a lot done on other things.

Never thought removing a Trojan Horse Virus would take 11 days though.
Good morning once again...

Pat, I was asking everyone about you yesterday; had noticed I had not seen you post in a while.. glad to see you back again.



Well, looks like Richard is not doing very good at all and unless a lot of changes happened, that "Tampa hit" does not appear to be a viable event in the near future... I know many here are upset....
but not me, I am "done" now with the season and ready to move forward... the storms had 5 months to come get me and they passed us by 2 years in a row...

I'm with IKE now! I am a downcaster!

5 years ago Wilma came on us on Oct 24th and it messed up the kids Halloween, and our yards and gardens were still a disaster area for Thanksgiving and Christmas..nothing was "normal or traditional" that holiday season....

There should be a "no storms after Sept" rule around here...

just saying....


Quoting RadarRich:
66. stormpetrol 2:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2010
I know the satelite presentation can be deceiving, but looks like a little motion to WNW to me!


I AGREE....
I see the cooridinates by the NHC at 11AM are 15.8N/81.1W, but the Satelite loops and Images sure look different. I want to say the COC is more to the North a bit, above 16.0N, maybe 16.1N. I keep looking at Richard from the Visible, IR, and Water Vapor and it sure looks like that to me,....But the NHC has the technology and data that are more sophisticated than my naked eye....Amazing why I do not see the COC where they have it...Oh well, that is why it is storm tracking is such an enigma..
Or they were drinking a bottle of Yeager on the last HH run! LOL J/k folks. They know what thier doing.
127. Jax82
5 day precipitation forecast.

if i had to pick a landfall it would be briefly over ne honduras and then a cat 2/3 near cozumel,mx...
Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 22 Oct 2010 14:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (60°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 22 Oct 2010 14:50:00 UTC

Winds: NNE (30°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (49°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 73.2 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

Station LCIY2
Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)
Location: 19.699N 80.061W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 22 Oct 2010 14:00:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (70°) at 8.9 kt gusting to 14.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.0 F
Dew Point: 72.7 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F


Interesting pressures throughout the Caribbean
Quoting hydrus:
I never really thought about my thoughts until I thought it was time to consider thoughts.


What a thoughtful thing to say...
Quoting Patrap:


Well some body parts were tingling ..LOL

Was a nice break from here and I got a lot done on other things.

Never thought removing a Trojan Horse Virus would take 11 days though.


Pat, so that is what happened. a few months ago I lost my home computer for exactly 11 days to a virus.. it had to go into the shop and get a complete overhall...and it cost also... I about went crazy without my computer!
But I had my daughter leave a message on WU and FB so everyone would know things were ok, just computer problems...

next time let someone know will ya?

121. hydrus 3:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2010
Plenty of moisture in the Eastern Atlantic..If some of it makes it to the Caribbean Sea we may have something some more activity brewing in November.
Especially with the MJO approaching

GOOD POINT
I do recall in some of Levi's Tidbits, he was mentioning the same idea. November may have some action in store as the season winds down.

OFF Topic: Every time I see MJO, I think of my Fantsay Football Runningback MJD (Maurice-Jones-Drew) and I hope he does something for my team in November, off to a slow start himself this season, as was our Hurricane season started slow also, but really ramped it up as of late..
Quoting stillwaiting:
if i had to pick a landfall it would be briefly over ne honduras and then a cat 2/3 near cozumel,mx...
The NCEP model dissipates Richard over the Yucatan. Which means no rain for Florida from this system if it were to pan out.Link
Quoting Patrap:


Try a re-start of your system first.

Dats what I usually do.

Great idea, always works for me. Patrap you were the one that helped me find the compatibility button on my laptop so the page wouldn't stretch! So glad you are posting again as I rely on your maps and other postings to help me understand the "tropics":)
Mesoscale Discussion 1963


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221503Z - 221700Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY. THE NEED
FOR A WW IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LONGEVITY OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... THROUGH
AT LEAST THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY COINCIDE WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
HEATING AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID SURFACE DEW
POINTS...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE. NEAR AND BENEATH 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..KERR.. 10/22/2010
Quoting Huskymaniac:


That looks a little phallic, no? As far as rain is concerned, I would love to send all of the rain we will get in the next 6 months down to FL. I am sick of the upstate NY weather!

The Dallas-Ft. Worth International AP has only has 0.02" of rain do far this month. We REALLY need the rain, however, we may get some severe weather to boot! Looks like a warm, dry late-fall and winter for the Southern US. Springtime will get ugly, with a higher than normal occurrence of severe weather. Thanks La Nina!
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Great idea, always works for me. Patrap you were the one that helped me find the compatibility button on my laptop so the page wouldn't stretch! So glad you are posting again as I rely on your maps and other postings to help me understand the "tropics":)


Why thanks,..thats the best part of the wunderground most would say,,

..the sharing.
Quoting pioggiasuper:


Not just underwater, but we all wouldnt have roofs either. With the number of major hurricanes he's said are coming here there wouldnt be any houses left. Thankfully he's just a wishcaster and not a forecaster.


Atleast he puts facts to support his opinion right or wrong. What do you do here? Cause trouble!
TDWR High Definition Radar
Oklahoma City, Base Reflectivity 0.60 Degree Elevation Range 225 NMI

Quoting FLstormwarning:


Atleast he puts facts to support his opinion right or wrong. What do you do here? Cause trouble!

+1000
Quoting FLstormwarning:


All you do is cause problems on here with your pigish comments about everybody on here. I must say you must hate your life. All Jeff said is finally rain will be back in the forecast next week in response to Richard's moisture.
She's back to see what kind of trouble she can stirr up. Just ignore her not worth the effort.
Quoting Patrap:
Mesoscale Discussion 1963


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221503Z - 221700Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY. THE NEED
FOR A WW IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LONGEVITY OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... THROUGH
AT LEAST THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY COINCIDE WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
HEATING AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID SURFACE DEW
POINTS...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE. NEAR AND BENEATH 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..KERR.. 10/22/2010

The sun is beginning to break through the low clouds in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. We are at 72F now, with a dew point of 67 F.

Today WILL be interesting over N TX and S OK!!!!
A NOAA Alert Radio day seems
Hola, todos....

It's good to be able to get into the blog at last.... between killer work schedule and erratic internet service, I've been out of touch.....

I see Richard is here! I'm wondering if we will see that - S - storm after all, and would not even be surprised at this point to get a - T - system before mid-November.... amazing season.

Also I'm noticing that now that the ATL has died down a bit, the other basins are picking up.... I keep thinking there has to be some kind of correlation between the lack of Twaves making it into the PAC and the lack of activity there over the Aug-Sept period.... I don't just mean EPac, either, though that relationship is fairly well established; I think a case could be made that AEW perturbations spark TC formation for 2/3 of the globe....

Quoting FLstormwarning:


All you do is cause problems on here with your pigish comments about everybody on here. I must say you must hate your life. All Jeff said is finally rain will be back in the forecast next week in response to Richard's moisture.


I don't see any reason why we cannot just let people express their opinions about the weather without fear of being attacked for it.

So what if this one is a wishcaster and that one is a downcaster? The way I try to look at it is that it does not matter at all. Nature will do what nature will do and after it is all said and done, some will have been right.. ahead of time.. some will have been wrong, so be it.

There is no reason to get upset at someone if they predict that a storm is going to form into a super-hurricane and threaten a specific point on the map. The reason for this is that A. The person is expressing their opinion only and B. What they say is not going to have any impact whatsoever on what eventually will happen.

Here is one other interesting observation and then I will be done with this comment..

I appreciate people like Jeff and others like him who make bold predictions about extreme outcomes during developing weather situations. The reason for this is that it indicates that person is interested in the weather. And that is how someone becomes a meteorologist.

Think about this for a minute... No one goes on to study meteorology because of sunny skies and calm conditions, I can assure you. It is the turbulent, stormy and potentially disruptive atmospheric conditions that attracts people to that career field. And without meteorologists, we'd all be in serious trouble.
Still soliciting advise for 109-116.

WM me if you can.

Thanks in advance! I'll be back later to check my mail. If not, I'll have to contact the support folks here...
Quoting BLee2333:
Still soliciting advise for 109-116.

WM me if you can.

Thanks in advance! I'll be back later to check my mail. If not, I'll have to contact the support folks here...


At the top of the page under "Settings" set to default.




HH is going home.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I don't see any reason why we cannot just let people express their opinions about the weather without fear of being attacked for it.

So what if this one is a wishcaster and that one is a downcaster? The way I try to look at it is that it does not matter at all. Nature will do what nature will do and after it is all said and done, some will have been right.. ahead of time.. some will have been wrong, so be it.

There is no reason to get upset at someone if they predict that a storm is going to form into a super-hurricane and threaten a specific point on the map. The reason for this is that A. The person is expressing their opinion only and B. What they say is not going to have any impact whatsoever on what eventually will happen.

Here is one other interesting observation and then I will be done with this comment..

I appreciate people like Jeff and others like him who make bold predictions about extreme outcomes during developing weather situations. The reason for this is that it indicates that person is interested in the weather. And that is how someone becomes a meteorologist.

Think about this for a minute... No one goes on to study meteorology because of sunny skies and calm conditions, I can assure you. It is the turbulent, stormy and potentially disruptive atmospheric conditions that attracts people to that career field. And without meteorologists, we'd all be in serious trouble.


That's Right! I just of people on this blog and there aren't many who cause trouble like this and think that it's fine. Have a great day friend!
I see SPECULATION THURSDAY has turned into FUNKY FRIDAY as the certainty of a Florida hit has faded. Post count is falling faster than the Titanic.
.
.
Don't give up hope though, and also don't think the US is 100% safe. These late season storms have been known to take crazy tracks, defy models, etc. We should still see a cyclone strengthening pretty quick in a bad spot. Still something to watch.
Quoting Orcasystems:




HH is going home.


Not a good time for them to go home, the visible is starting to look a bit more impressive with the bands and convection.
"funky Friday"....

I'm groovin' in my chair...

Based on this it looks like Richard has turn WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Quoting reedzone:


Not a good time for them to go home, the visible is starting to look a bit more impressive with the bands and convection.


Seems to be moving WNW as well.
The circulation center is further north which would cause models to shift north

JB

FRIDAY 11 A.M.
RECON FUN AND GAMES.

An examination of the recon obs shows they are having pressure problems. There is a report of a pressure of 1006.2 mb at 16.5 and 81.3 with a northeast wind of 34 knots. That would fit nicely with the cloud shot and the data buoy obs I have been talking about. Then we get a vortex message of 1010 mb some 60 miles south at 15.5 north and 81.0 west.

Obviously, this is not well organized, but either they are having some recon pressure reporting problems are the center to track is farther north, which is what cloud shots and the data buoy suggest.

Ciao for now.

Quoting portcharlotte:
The circulation center is further north which would cause models to shift north

JB

FRIDAY 11 A.M.
RECON FUN AND GAMES.

An examination of the recon obs shows they are having pressure problems. There is a report of a pressure of 1006.2 mb at 16.5 and 81.3 with a northeast wind of 34 knots. That would fit nicely with the cloud shot and the data buoy obs I have been talking about. Then we get a vortex message of 1010 mb some 60 miles south at 15.5 north and 81.0 west.

Obviously, this is not well organized, but either they are having some recon pressure reporting problems are the center to track is farther north, which is what cloud shots and the data buoy suggest.

Ciao for now.



Visible sat. is confirming this as well.
Quoting NRAamy:
"funky Friday"....

I'm groovin' in my chair...



Hi Amy, ME TOO! LOL

you back at work this week right?

A bad call for recon to head back, the storm looks to be getting itself together, the once elongated ball of convection is now round.

yes, gamma!

:)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I see SPECULATION THURSDAY has turned into FUNKY FRIDAY as the certainty of a Florida has faded. Post count is falling faster than the Titanic.
.
.
Don't give up hope though, and also don't think the US s 100% safe. These late season storms have been known to take crazy tracks, defy models, etc. We should still see a cyclone strengthening pretty quick in a bad spot. Still something to watch.


rofl, so that is the reason the blog has gotten slower... now there is not any of the models pointing toward Tampa! LOL

I am happy about this...let's let Richy just go into CA and join the rest of his siblings from this year... and leave us the heck a lone..

I am glad for a 2 year rest from these storms!
Post 147 (FLWaterFront)

Terrific point.
Here's a good reason why Richard is finally starting to organize..

Disconnection from the trough..
Quoting reedzone:
Here's a good reason why Richard is finally starting to organize..

Disconnection from the trough..

Here is where the intensification will begin!!
i need some clarity about something...i am confused....
if i am directly south of the eye, does that mean the winds will be coming from the west?
I have to go to work in a few, I'm a cashier today :)

I expect Richard to be more organized when I get back home this evening.
Quoting reedzone:
Here's a good reason why Richard is finally starting to organize..

Disconnection from the trough..

Yep. He's becoming less and less affected by it and it's dry air association.
"Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days"

Look how much the track forecast changed in less than 24 hours. Richard drifted much further south than predicted. If they were that far off, it could just as easily go back the other direction.
Quoting reedzone:
A bad call for recon to head back, the storm looks to be getting itself together, the once elongated ball of convection is now round.



Low on fuel?
Right, Recon found highest temps 50 miles northeast of the area that had a 3 mb rise. The NHC discussion indicating a reformation south is a total error unless they meant north. Also, if you look at the patterns a Yucatan landfall could occur but the exit point will be more in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, One last point, a north relocation obvious implies a north adjustment to the models by 60 to 80 miles.


Quoting FLstormwarning:


Visible sat. is confirming this as well.
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Visible sat. is confirming this as well.
Quoting oracle28:


Low on fuel?


Could be possible :P
Have a good day.
175. eddye
if he relocates north that will be bad for fl less time over the yucatan and can strengthen
I would say the center is at 16.8N 81.0 West at this time IMO....could be heading 280 or 290
Quoting reedzone:


Could be possible :P
Have a good day.


I look forwrad to reading your updates this evening. I wonder if a stronger Richard will move poleward even with the strength of the ridge.
Quoting reedzone:


Not a good time for them to go home, the visible is starting to look a bit more impressive with the bands and convection.


I would say they are going home because there is really nothing to find right now.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


At the top of the page under "Settings" set to default.


Worked like a champ! Thank you VERY much!
The banding features to the wnw of the storm and their movement foretell a wnw movement in the short term. Also notice how the convection is being drawn in from the south and the overall appearance is is expanding more to the north at this time.
Center still on the south side of the deep convection:
Latest visible satellite picture of the dry line in West Texas:
183. eddye
bad news for florida
I know Richards going to wobble, but it sure looks like a wobble to the NNW the last few frames.
Link
The 12Z GFS takes him near the northern coast of Belize , then dissipates him at 96 hours (image below).

Could be low on fuel...hopefully satellite imagery will give them enough support to determine if there is a center relocation in the making.


Quoting oracle28:


Low on fuel?
Please check out Christmas in Haiti!!!!
Link
With the obvious big trough that center is not disappearing...GFS is out to lunch temporarily


Quoting cat5hurricane:
The 12Z GFS takes him near the northern coast of Belize , then dissipates him at 96 hours (image below).

Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest visible satellite picture of the dry line in West Texas:

And that will be setting up that severe weather event.

Have you updated your blog yet today regarding the severe weather threat, Bordonoro?
Once again data does not support that location IMO


Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Center still on the south side of the deep convection:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

And that will be setting up that severe weather event.

Have you updated your blog yet today regarding the severe weather threat, Bordonoro?

Yes and please check out my recent other article published on it:Link
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes and please check out my recent other article published on it:Link

You got it buddy. Thank you.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Once again data does not support that location IMO


What data do you see that doesn't support that location? Recon was just out there and found a center farther to the south.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You got it buddy. Thank you.

You are welcome. We have TS Richard, which will now start to slowly intensify and the daytime heating may create a Southern Plains severe weather outbreak!
If you zoom in on a visible satellite image in motion, you can clearly see the bump in the middle of the mass rotating counter-clockwise. The only other possibility is that this is a mi lvel circulation and eventually the LLC will join it to be vertically stacked.
Recon temperture data shows the highest temperatures and lowest pressures 60 NM to the northeast. Buoy data to the northeast also conflict with Recon center. The only other reason could be a defect in their equipment giving erroneous pressure data. However, the buoy's instruments are most likely okay


Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What data do you see that doesn't support that location? Recon was just out there and found a center farther to the south.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Recon temperture data shows the highest temperatures and lowest pressures 60 NM to the northeast. Buoy data to the northeast also conflict with Recon center. The only other reason could be a defect in their equipment giving erroneous pressure data. However, the buoy's instruments are most likely okay


However, the buoy is reporting a high and rising pressure.
Richard does looks to be organizing on satellite imagery, I would just like to see surface obs to back that up. Story of his life.
Quoting reedzone:
Here's a good reason why Richard is finally starting to organize..

Disconnection from the trough..
Hey, reed. That trough caused plenty of freaky weather here on Wed night, including a very rare tornado threat and some downburst type damage in central and eastern New Providence.
200. IKE
12Z NOGAPS through 96 hours...Link
how do i find post that was posted earlier?
Giri's intensification was pretty amazing. I wasn't following - anyone know whether the RI was predicted?
Quoting minorLeague:
Giri's intensification was pretty amazing. I wasn't following - anyone know whether the RI was predicted?

Not at the degree it intensified. It really made a run for it right before landfall and caught most off guard with it's category 4 classification.
What are the odds that Richard gets too close to Honduras to become a hurricane at all?
Hey Levi! great post and thanks for the video and for the information.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Not at the degree it intensified. It really made a run for it right before landfall and caught most off guard with it's category 4 classification.

Thanks. Scary thought for all of us living near the coast.
Quoting minorLeague:

Thanks. Scary thought for all of us living near the coast.
Luckily the landfall wasn't over the much more vulnerable delta, as in Nargis.
Quoting minorLeague:
Giri's intensification was pretty amazing. I wasn't following - anyone know whether the RI was predicted?


RI was not predicted. Giri was originally predicted to hit at Cat 1. People here started noticing the well defined eye popping out last night.
Levi,

couple of questions for you. First, after reading your synopsis, are you basically saying that according to your logic and how you see the pattern that you think Richard will move more WNW then NW eventhough the models are latching onto and are in better agreement of a stronger high above Richard? Why is that? Do you think the models are not taking into effect the smaller then the larger trough afterwards you mentioned in your write up? It seems Florida does not have much to worry about.

I ask because most of the conditions warrant a further westward motion going over land and probably not amounting to anything.

Second, is the reason if Richard appears in the EGOM to weaken because of wind shear? thanks Levi.
212. JRRP

see you later
I tell ya what though. If the center is further south, it better start gaining some latitude soon or it will run into Honduras.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I tell ya what though. If the center is further south, it better start gaining some latitude soon or it will run into Honduras.


It's not! JB also believes it's in the convective ball and this is evident on the visible images.
.Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~15hours from now to CrutaWalpatara,Honduras

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Copy&paste 16.2n80.4w, 16.1n80.4w, 16.0n80.4w, 16.0n80.5w, 15.9n80.5w-15.8n80.4w, 15.8n80.4w-16.0n80.3w, 16.0n80.3w-15.9n80.7w, 15.9n80.7w-15.8n81.1w, mhdu, puz, 15.8n81.1w-15.22n83.38w into the GreatCircleMapper for a closer look headings and distances traveled over the last 12^hours reported.
Great post Levi, always informative. I tend to agree with a west coast Fla hit. Still thinking strong cat 1 or weak cat 2. Not a wishcaster or Fla caster, just looking at the facts.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Center still on the south side of the deep convection:


There is no center there i think the NHC made a boo boo.
This statement will always be true: "Giri is one of the strongest cyclones ever to hit Myanmar", simply because it is a Category 4 cyclone, and by definition at the higher end of the scale.

Similarly, Katrina and Rita are the strongest cyclones ever to hit the United States.

However, the word "ever" is scientifically unsound and misleading -- and should be replaced with "the historical record which is very short in this region of the world."

Also, the use of frequency or counts when discussing historical Atlantic hurricane records should also be used with a grain of salt. The recent increase in short-lived storms, as has been described at GFDL in a new paper, called "shorties" appears to be a artificial and an aspect of observational improvement. Thus, papers that suggest increases in Atlantic frequency over the past 100-yrs are likely incorrect in their conclusions and attribution to climate change. Similarly, the 17 storms in the Atlantic this year cannot be historically compared to 1887 or 1933 with much confidence.
Here's the real center below moving WNW or NW at the moment. There is center at the NHC location.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

couple of questions for you. First, after reading your synopsis, are you basically saying that according to your logic and how you see the pattern that you think Richard will move more WNW then NW eventhough the models are latching onto and are in better agreement of a stronger high above Richard? Why is that? Do you think the models are not taking into effect the smaller then the larger trough afterwards you mentioned in your write up? It seems Florida does not have much to worry about.

I ask because most of the conditions warrant a further westward motion going over land and probably not amounting to anything.

Second, is the reason if Richard appears in the EGOM to weaken because of wind shear? thanks Levi.


The models are seeing the first shortwave weaken quickly and the ridge will build north of Richard, but what they disagree on is the 2nd trough. They think that won't arrive in time or dig deep enough to draw Richard up. I think this will be stronger as it is coming out of the Gulf of Alaska, and the main ridge will be centered off the SE US coast which would tend to argue for a southerly flow being drawn out of the Caribbean and the Yucatan.

Richard would weaken in the gulf due to cold SSTs and dry air. Wind shear would be an issue as well but not the biggest issue as ridging over the top would keep that low. Basically right now I believe that impact on the U.S. is likely to be low overall, as my track is the same as it has always been, taking the storm over the Yucatan first. Richard wouldn't be able to recover from that very well in the GOM. Also any track, even if it's all over water, all the way to the north gulf coast would weaken the storm over 26C or colder water.
I think that is what I am trying to understand. just trying to learn something. eventhough models are models and they tend to flip flop a lot and sometimes are unreliable, it seems to me (please correct if me I am wrong) that the upper atmosphere conditions with the High building in north of Richard will steer this thing straight west and at a faster speed as Dr. Masters said earlier.

If this is the case, there is too much land interaction. Richard would have to go quite a bit north and then northwest and even if he does enter the EGOM, wind shear would be too strong. is there something I am not seeing? almost majority of the models take this thing straight westward. maybe there might be some flucuations with the models again but seems like a pretty good agreement between all the models.
223. Jax82
Friday!

Looks to be moving WNW to NW to me..and further north than the TFP's...
ok Levi. I understand, thanks. I am surprised that the Gulf waters have cooled down so fast. Air temps around here are still in the low to mid 80's. Last year I think the Gulf was warmer.

Given this is a La Nina year, I thought if anything SST's would be about the same if not warmer.
Quoting FLstormwarning:


It's not! JB also believes it's in the convective ball and this is evident on the visible images.


Nor do I but, I'm trying to stick with the posted recon. However, It's becoming tough to do so.
The center is far north of forecast points right now. Very interesting. Someone from HH must have put in the wrong coordinates as the center appears to be at 16.5N.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Nor do I but, I'm trying to stick with the posted recon. However, It's becoming tough to do so.


Why are we getting bad info? Now this throws off the 2pm computer model runs. It is obvious the center fix was a mistake.
Richard is not very organized. Recon should of left. There is nothing there to look at for the time being and the mission showed nothing impressive. This evening there should be something more interesting to check out. I believe Richard is going to die out over Belize or the Yucatan and the US escapes another threat.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, October 22nd, with Video


Thank you sir!!

Common sense. Love that.
Levi,

do you think the models will continue to flip back and forth between eastward and westward shifts?
Quoting robert88:
Richard is not very organized. Recon should of left. There is nothing there to look at for the time being and the mission showed nothing impressive. This evening there should be something more interesting to check out. I believe Richard is going to die out over Belize or the Yucatan and the US escapes another threat.


Not wishcasting but the movement and center location is getting more interesting. Notice the solid WNW movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Poor Richard surrounded by warm water and still can't get a drink.
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Not wishcasting but the movement and center location is getting more interesting. Notice the solid WNW movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


I posted that earlier. My thoughts exactly
hey guys is it just me or is Richard's center at 16.5N 81.2W moving NW

" Houston We may have a Problem!"
If the center is indeed further north than the forecast points told earlier, then wouldn't that warrant for more strengthening like Levi was indicating? I think maybe that is why he said in his post earlier and thinks that the center is north and northeast of where the HH said.

that would be interesting especially if the stronger trough he is talking about picks it up early enough. not sure what the models will say about this
Satelite Images definitely look like the center is North of the NHC's Forcast Track Points. I said it myself earlier, BUT, I think what we are seeing is the mid-level circulation, and not the LLC, which was found by the HH earlier. The vertically stacked concept is what is coming into play right now. He is tilted Northward from the LLC to the Mid Level circulation. That being said, the stronger of these two circulations looks to be the mid-level one, and will probably work its way down to the surface and take over the original LLC in the next 12 hours or so. I believe Levi referred to mthat also in his update....JMO as always....Rich
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Why are we getting bad info? Now this throws off the 2pm computer model runs. It is obvious the center fix was a mistake.



Not necessarily. A. I wasn't in the plane, they could see something that we don't and B. It may not be that well organized yet.

Recon is Recon and personally, I follow it as long as I can. However, the support in the other direction is there too.
Quoting RyanFSU:
This statement will always be true: "Giri is one of the strongest cyclones ever to hit Myanmar", simply because it is a Category 4 cyclone, and by definition at the higher end of the scale.

Similarly, Katrina and Rita are the strongest cyclones ever to hit the United States.

However, the word "ever" is scientifically unsound and misleading -- and should be replaced with "the historical record which is very short in this region of the world."

Also, the use of frequency or counts when discussing historical Atlantic hurricane records should also be used with a grain of salt. The recent increase in short-lived storms, as has been described at GFDL in a new paper, called "shorties" appears to be a artificial and an aspect of observational improvement. Thus, papers that suggest increases in Atlantic frequency over the past 100-yrs are likely incorrect in their conclusions and attribution to climate change. Similarly, the 17 storms in the Atlantic this year cannot be historically compared to 1887 or 1933 with much confidence.
We had quite a lot of discussion about this back in 2006. There is a lot of historical record out there that we don't know simply because many of the pre-European cultures had oral historical traditions that were disrupted by the advent of European hegemony in the area. Societies with written records, like the Aztecs and Mayas, had their histories destroyed by zealous Hispanics. So even the landfall records that might have been kept are long gone. I think the least understood basin is prolly the SIndian, because so little "modern" record-keeping or even serious perusal of what historical record does exist has taken place.
Looks like Richard is heading to the Yucatan Channel.....
wunderkidcayman

hey guys is it just me or is Richard's center at 16.5N 81.2W moving NW

" Houston We may have a Problem!"


Yes, thats what my eyes see anyway
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys is it just me or is Richard's center at 16.5N 81.2W moving NW

" Houston We may have a Problem!"
hey wunderkid remember my post didnt i said it was gonna do this?
So you say this because the Historical storms were actually experienced or recorded as opposed to finding more storms today because of technological advances. Thus it appears their are more storms because we can see more of them.

On that bases, their could have been even more storms in the past (in those historical years) but we would never know because no one seen or experienced them.

That makes a HECK of alot of sense.

Quoting RyanFSU:
This statement will always be true: "Giri is one of the strongest cyclones ever to hit Myanmar", simply because it is a Category 4 cyclone, and by definition at the higher end of the scale.

Similarly, Katrina and Rita are the strongest cyclones ever to hit the United States.

However, the word "ever" is scientifically unsound and misleading -- and should be replaced with "the historical record which is very short in this region of the world."

Also, the use of frequency or counts when discussing historical Atlantic hurricane records should also be used with a grain of salt. The recent increase in short-lived storms, as has been described at GFDL in a new paper, called "shorties" appears to be a artificial and an aspect of observational improvement. Thus, papers that suggest increases in Atlantic frequency over the past 100-yrs are likely incorrect in their conclusions and attribution to climate change. Similarly, the 17 storms in the Atlantic this year cannot be historically compared to 1887 or 1933 with much confidence.
Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

do you think the models will continue to flip back and forth between eastward and westward shifts?


Possibly...they will have to flip at some point if my track is right lol.
Checking in and checking back...

Reed, you are right, why did they call Recon back? Unfortunate really, not intentional.


Quoting reedzone:
A bad call for recon to head back, the storm looks to be getting itself together, the once elongated ball of convection is now round.

Quoting kshipre1:
ok Levi. I understand, thanks. I am surprised that the Gulf waters have cooled down so fast. Air temps around here are still in the low to mid 80's. Last year I think the Gulf was warmer.

Given this is a La Nina year, I thought if anything SST's would be about the same if not warmer.


During the heart of the hurricane season that is usually true, but it is also true that the SE US tends to experience cold at the tail-end of active seasons, even during La Nina years. The troughing over the east of late has helped cool those SSTs.
If ever a Storm had the potential for a relocation of the surface COC, I believe Richard is right up there in that potential. However, we will not get that actual data until another recon sends back some data. So, it is a guessing game until that time, and we all will have to go by what we are seeing on the Satelite Images. IMO, we will have an adjustment later today to the North by .5 to 1 degree or so, but, I could be wrong, shall see what they find later today
Keys99: you are right in your conclusion that there were likely many storms in the past that were not detected because they were short-lived and out in the middle of central Atlantic. There is new peer-reviewed literature which compares the storm counts of the past focusing on short-lived storms of 1-day or less. Scientists at GFDL have found that it is not a real climate signal but a result of detection.

Consider this year how many of the 17 may not have been detected 10, 20, 50, or 100 years.

The phrase I used was "the recent increase in short-lived storms". Thus, it does make sense to me and to researchers in the tropical cyclone field. But it is a relatively new finding (last 2-4 years) and that education/knowledge may not be well-known, even by the purveyor of this blog posting.


Quoting Keys99:
So you say this because the Historical storms were actually experienced or recorded as opposed to finding more storms today because of technological advances. Thus it appears their are more storms because we can see more of them.

On that bases, their could have been even more storms in the past (in those historical years) but we would never know because no one seen or experienced them.

That makes a HECK of alot of sense.

Current WNW to NW motion, coupled with position already north of forecast points will again mess with timing and model forecasts. Speed is also a little faster than I would have thought.
Granted this is about 3 hrs old but, it seems winds would be more northerly here if the center was west of it.

Lat/Lon: 15.2 N 83.8 W

Puerto Lempira, Honduras (Airport)
Updated: 2 hr 43 min 11 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
83 F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: 75 F
Wind: 14 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.88 in (Rising)
Visibility: 12.0 miles
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2756 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 43 ft
Alejandro!!!!!!!!!!!
yes you did kmanhurricaneman I say Richard is dertermined to get us well atleast trying
hello!! my name is richard and i coming to blow your house down, oh Grand Cayman i 'l be seeing you later,toodle do!!!
LOL
000
WTNT34 KNHC 221746
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 81.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Quoting gordydunnot:
Poor Richard surrounded by warm water and still can't get a drink.

???
Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri is making landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar... that look like a mean storm wow!!
258. IKE
...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....
2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 81.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
LOL (smacks head) Mr. Simmons is going to find his way into the conversation often with this storm....

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hello!! my name is richard and i coming to blow your house down, oh Grand Cayman i 'l be seeing you later,toodle do!!!
LOL
HWRF has shifted a little east of previous run. Trend?
Unfortunately, we'll have to wait 12 hours to see. The 18Z models will not be of much help, they'll be beginning their runs in about 3 hours...

Quoting FLstormwarning:
HWRF has shifted a little east of previous run. Trend?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Granted this is about 3 hrs old but, it seems winds would be more northerly here if the center was west of it.

Lat/Lon: 15.2� N 83.8� W

Puerto Lempira, Honduras (Airport)
Updated: 2 hr 43 min 11 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
83 �F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: 75 �F
Wind: 14 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.88 in (Rising)
Visibility: 12.0 miles
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2756 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 43 ft


You mean east. The center would have to NE of them right now.
Quoting FLstormwarning:
HWRF has shifted a little east of previous run. Trend?

can u show us a link??
Looks like some colder weather will be ensuing mid next week in the central and eastern CONUS as the GFS advertises a powerful phased longwave trough.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 22 Oct 2010 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in
Air Temperature: 77.0 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
Quoting FLstormwarning:


You mean east. The center would have to NE of them right now.



lol, yes, East, thanks :-b
a powerful phased longwave trough.


Man I lub me sum sexy Fall weather talk here ..!
cat5hurricane that is bull crap the reason they kept it there is because they did not send out the Recon now and I bet they would change it by this eveing or tommrow morning maybe at 17.0N 81.8W but right now the real one is it at 16.6N 81.4W the fake one is at 15.8N 81.3W any way I have to run
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

can u show us a link??


It has and it also bends NE like the previous GFDL run did. FL not out of the woods. I think FL gets Richard but in what state is the key.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/richard19l.2010102212_wind.png
Quoting IKE:
...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....
2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 81.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


No doubt the presentation is improving.
Fake..?

Snicker,,ack,,coff



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But it's important to remember: there is still much suffering in Haiti. Over one million people, including tens of thousands of children, are still living in makeshift tent camps. Hope is scarce.

So...let's bring some Holiday Joy to Haiti's children. Let's end this year as we began it: making a difference in Haiti.

What: Christmas in Haiti It is a simple concept. We want to provide Christmas presents for Haitian children living in camps.

When: Over the next two months.

Where: Refugee camps in Haiti

Who: As many children in as many camps as we are able to serve.

How: Well...that's up to you. A contribution of $20 will provide a present for one child. The extent of our reach will depend upon the budget we raise. Our dream is to serve thousands. We'd love to arrange for Santa to visit some of the camps.

Please remember the children of Haiti this Christmas. Please support Christmas in Haiti with your thoughts, prayers...and, of course, your financial contribution.

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Thank you for your faith in these efforts!!!!
Pat! Good to "see" you in here..

Quoting Patrap:
a powerful phased longwave trough.


Man I lub me sum sexy Fall weather talk here ..!
Good to be back..

Dem puter viruses are bad things.


I learned a lot about malware and such too..and I went with anti-malware thru c-net. A free version is also available.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
cat5hurricane that is bull crap the reason they kept it there is because they did not send out the Recon now and I bet they would change it by this eveing or tommrow morning maybe at 17.0N 81.8W but right now the real one is it at 16.6N 81.4W the fake one is at 15.8N 81.3W any way I have to run
BINGO!!! GO TO THE HEAD OF THE CLASS, buoy 42057
Quoting IKE:
...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....
2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 81.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


Wow, Richard sure is creeping along so slowly.
Man, oh Man, though, it is just so hard to believe he is only at 15.8N, it looks so much more like 16.5N, , hmmmmm
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RICHARD...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 960 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

sorry posted too quick Buoy 42057 reporting winds from the east at 90 degrees mmmmmm doesnt that ring bells.
Yeah, Had one attack a hard drive of mine and erase everything on it....

Good advertisement for having 1) an online backup, 2) any downloads you make off the Internet is downloaded to your second drive, not your main HD....I was fortunate....

Anyhow, this is still a marginal storm you all. Just as good a chance that it dies in CA as it making it to FL or North GC.

Quoting Patrap:
Good to be back..

Dem puter viruses are bad things.
they bump up 90L to 40% interesting
watch the models go nuts later today.
I dont see a NE bend in either the HWRF or GFDL

I see a slightly east of northward movement on the GFDL

the HWRF has no eastward component to it whatsoever
TS Richard




Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available.
Now this....this I agree with.....models are going to go crazy at 00Z tonight...don't worry, I have eaten lots of crow this year.

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
watch the models go nuts later today.
There IS NO WAY that the center is at 15.8..I kn ew this would happen with the recon leaving. Looks like wnw movement from 16.7 or 16.8



Quoting RadarRich:


Wow, Richard sure is creeping along so slowly.
Man, oh Man, though, it is just so hard to believe he is only at 15.8N, it looks so much more like 16.5N, , hmmmmm
Quoting RadarRich:


Wow, Richard sure is creeping along so slowly.
Man, oh Man, though, it is just so hard to believe he is only at 15.8N, it looks so much more like 16.5N, , hmmmmm
Kinda looks like a Louisiana Crawdad in that picture..LOL

Quoting Patrap:
TS Richard




Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available.
Richard will not be a Big Thang save for the Yucatan,..if he survives the Crossing.

The Shear in the GOM Mid next week will cut him down like a LSU linebacker.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I dont see a NE bend in either the HWRF or GFDL

I see a slightly east of northward movement on the GFDL

the HWRF has no eastward component to it whatsoever

was gonna say that the hwrf didnt have no east component
Quoting RadarRich:


Wow, Richard sure is creeping along so slowly.
Man, oh Man, though, it is just so hard to believe he is only at 15.8N, it looks so much more like 16.5N, , hmmmmm


Very tough to follow at that location.
Quoting RadarRich:


Wow, Richard sure is creeping along so slowly.
Man, oh Man, though, it is just so hard to believe he is only at 15.8N, it looks so much more like 16.5N, , hmmmmm

Looks like that to me also. The spiral banding i am seeing on the visible does not seem to match with the center at 15.8N
shear briefly becomes favorable in the gom as levi mentioned right before the trough
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I dont see a NE bend in either the HWRF or GFDL

I see a slightly east of northward movement on the GFDL

the HWRF has no eastward component to it whatsoever


What? Moving ne at 126 hours. Loop the run.
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

was gonna say that the hwrf didnt have no east component


Tells me some are trying really hard to wishcast this to Florida
Casualty of the Recon leaving....no way that center is at 15.8...

Quoting KeystoneGroves:
Quoting FLstormwarning:


What? Moving ne at 126 hours. Loop the run.


that is not NE, that is slightly east of due north
Quoting IKE:
...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....


Been hearing that a lot today, eh, Ike?

Still waiting...
Because of the bad info the models will have to adjust east later this evening.
dont worry i can take the criticism (hope i spelled it right)LOL but please give me credit ehen i am right....
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Because of the bad info the models will have to adjust east later this evening.


says the guy who lives in Florida

Truth be told, right now, there is not much that supports a Florida impact. That could change, but as of now I do not think it is likely
wow gfdl makes a cane briefly in the sw gom at 120 hr heading north
The latest microwave on Richard shows... blobiness?

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Been hearing that a lot today, eh, Ike?

Still waiting...


That is why I am still following the recon center.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Tells me some are trying really hard to wishcast this to Florida


East of North is NE!LOL! The schooling in this state! Not wishcasting by saying NE even if Richard went NE from that point shear would really do a number on him but we would get some nice rainfall.
oohhh yeah hear comes new words ..blobiness...:p
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


That is why I am still following the recon center.


However, lol, I am still looking for it. Seems if it were indeed further north it would be strengthening much faster.
lol hwrf only shows a weakening td in the gom anyways only shows a 70 mph ts into belize
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned westward to dueWest
from its previous heading of (8.1degrees west of) WestSouthWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~4.3mph(~7km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~9mph(~14.5km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.1n80.4w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*
21Oct 09pmGMT - 16.0n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4
22Oct 12amGMT - 16.0n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Oct 03amGMT - 15.9n80.5w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5
22Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#5A
22Oct 09amGMT - 16.0n80.3w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#6
22Oct 12pmGMT - 15.9n80.7w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#6A
22Oct 03pmGMT - 15.8n81.1w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7
22Oct 06pmGMT - 15.8n81.3w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7A

* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers.

Copy&paste 16.1n80.4w, 16.0n80.4w, 16.0n80.5w, 15.9n80.5w, 15.8n80.4w-16.0n80.3w, 16.0n80.3w-15.9n80.7w, 15.9n80.7w-15.8n81.1w, 15.8n81.1w-15.8n81.3w, peu, puz, 15.8n81.3w-15.78n84.28w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~45hours from now to BarraPatuca,Honduras

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
Quoting FLstormwarning:


East of North is NE!LOL! The schooling in this state! Not wishcasting by saying NE even if Richard went NE from that point shear would really do a number on him but we would get some nice rainfall.


yea the schooling in this state is right

Just East of DUE NORTH!!! is not NE, learn how to tell what direction is what
talk about insult to injury

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Giri

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN / SNOW WOULD OCCUR OVER JAMMU & KASHMIR AND HIMACHAL PRADESH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ? ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTH KONKAN & GOA, COASTAL KARNATAKA AND KERALA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.? SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 40-50 KMPH WOULD OCCUR OVER MIZORAM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
it is nne
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea the schooling in this state is right

Just East of DUE NORTH!!! is not NE, learn how to tell what direction is what

Wouldn't that be NNE??
REPOST:
Satelite Images definitely look like the center is North of the NHC's Forcast Track Points. I POSTED it myself earlier, BUT, I think what we are seeing is the mid-level circulation, and not the LLC, which was found by the HH earlier. The vertically stacked concept is what is coming into play right now. It is not vertically stacked. The recon may have found the LLC at 15.8, however, Richard is tilted Northward from the LLC to the Mid Level circulation. That being said, the stronger of these two circulations looks to be the mid-level one, and will probably work its way down to the surface and take over the original LLC in the next 12 hours or so. I believe Levi referred to mthat also in his update....JMO as always....Rich

I think the relocation is happening as we speak, and not in the next 12 hours or so as I mentioned above.
Lack of recon is why they are sticking with 15.8N. It would really amaze me if relocation is not occurring now, and most likely will be noted in the next update


Quoting GTcooliebai:

Wouldn't that be NNE??


I would say the movement is between N and NNE, clearly not NE

Quoting GTcooliebai:

Wouldn't that be NNE??
Yes it would !! Not NE.
Thank you....that would be accurate, and certainly a compromising statement rather than just "wrong"....be nice all



Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
it is nne
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Wouldn't that be NNE??
correct!!! go to the head of the class.
Quoting Orcasystems:
talk about insult to injury

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Giri

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN / SNOW WOULD OCCUR OVER JAMMU & KASHMIR AND HIMACHAL PRADESH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ? ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTH KONKAN & GOA, COASTAL KARNATAKA AND KERALA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.? SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 40-50 KMPH WOULD OCCUR OVER MIZORAM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
I'm guessing Himalayan foothills?
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
correct!!! go to the head of the class.

Aww shucks it was nuthin teach
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm guessing Himalayan foothills?

Kashmir? Sounds like India
thanks Levi for your explanations.

your comment on the tracks was funny lol. I hope your forecast is right. Personally, I think you are a great meteorologist who should be director at the NHC
anyway guys gotta run be back later
Quoting Hurricanes101:


says the guy who lives in Florida

Truth be told, right now, there is not much that supports a Florida impact. That could change, but as of now I do not think it is likely


So you are saying Levi32 and JB are all wrong by saying that some impacts will be felt in FL not necassarily a hurricane by a TS to remanet low is not out of the question. Either it means rainfall.
Quoting FLstormwarning:


What? Moving ne at 126 hours. Loop the run.
Thanks Levi I NEVER THOUGHT THE BEST TROPICAL UPDATE WOULD COME FROM YOUTUBE!!!!! your the man
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

So If I'm getting this right anywhere from 271-314 degrees constitutes a NNE heading
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I would say the movement is between N and NNE, clearly not NE

Quoting stormwatcherCI:


A bend NNE or NE. Who the flip cares. Tropics must be quite if people are fight over NE. Hurricanes101 needs to change his panties.
BTW, Orca, I'm trying to figure how a storm making landfall over Myanmar is going to bring snow to Jammu on the other side of the Indian subcontinent....
Quoting portcharlotte:
There IS NO WAY that the center is at 15.8..I kn ew this would happen with the recon leaving. Looks like wnw movement from 16.7 or 16.8



Hi. A certain former blogger's update said he believes the coc is further North and east than what is on the 2 pm advisory.
Quoting AEKDB1990:


Excellent Post! +10,000
Quoting GTcooliebai:

So If I'm getting this right anywhere from 271-314 degrees constitutes a NNE heading
:) IDK, I just Google but I do know that the distance between N, NNE and NE would mean a difference in where Richard makes landfall.
Jammu and Kashmir are over 1,000 miles away from Burma. That region borders Pakistan.
N? NNE? NE? you guys are silly. Richard isnt doing good now so directions in the future are the current argument? LOL :)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
:) IDK, I just Google but I do know that the distance between N, NNE and NE would mean a difference in where Richard makes landfall.

Absolutely! it makes a tons of a difference.
I beg to disagree...JB has his moments but is not an idiot...maybe they are to you because you need to look at the situation objectively and not be biased on how you want it to work out. Levi32 does a great job and no one is flawless..no need to call people ifiots unless you are one



Quoting capeflorida:


JB is an idiot and both him and Levi could and have been wrong many times before.
Ok so IF the center is further N and E than is currently thought, how does that change the steering overall or does it just add more mushiness to the stew? tia!
Quoting GTcooliebai:

So If I'm getting this right anywhere from 271-314 degrees constitutes a NNE heading
Looking back at your post but isn't 270 degrees west so no 271-314 would be wnw-nw.
So what if people are wrong. It's weather. Everyone is wrong about weather sometimes. I bet anyone who has posted regularly here for 4 or 5 years has been wrong dozens of times.
As the smoke clears around 15.8, you can make out the center, elongated NW to SE.

Just so I can say I told you so in a couple days. Richard's track has been trending south. It will be close enough to have the southern part of the circulation make friction with the land. Since the southern part is moving slower it will be drawn that way. I predict landfall on the eastern part of Honduras, on the north coast followed by dissipation.
Quoting flsurfer305:
Thanks Levi I NEVER THOUGHT THE BEST TROPICAL UPDATE WOULD COME FROM YOUTUBE!!!!! your the man


TWC should look at his forecast.
Quoting winter123:
Just so I can say I told you so in a couple days. Richard's track has been trending south. It will be close enough to have the southern part of the circulation make friction with the land. Since the southern part is moving slower it will be drawn that way. I predict landfall on the eastern part of Honduras, on the north coast followed by dissipation.


Another matthew like storm, like nearly every other storm. NEXT!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looking back at your post but isn't 270 degrees west so no 271-314 would be wnw-nw.

Yea my bad it would be 46-89 degrees.
DOES ANYONE KNOW IF RICHARD IS STILL EXPECTED TO HIT FLORIDA AND IF SO, WILL IT BE A MAJOR CANE? IS TAMPA STILL IN ITS CROSSHAIRS? I SEE ALL THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST FOR NOW. ITS BEEN A REAL LET DOWN THUSFAR. HAPPY CAPS LOCK DAY THOUGH! ANNOYING HUH? LOL.
Quoting Waltanater:
DOES ANYONE KNOW IF RICHARD IS STILL EXPECTED TO HIT FLORIDA AND IF SO, WILL IT BE A MAJOR CANE? IS TAMPA STILL IN ITS CROSSHAIRS? I SEE ALL THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST FOR NOW. ITS BEEN A REAL LET DOWN THUSFAR. HAPPY CAPS LOCK DAY THOUGH! ANNOYING HUH? LOL.


Please don't remind me of STORMKAT/WILMAKAT/KATRINAKAT
ATCF just out says 16.1N/81.6W, which puts the center only about 25 miles north of the TFPs...

AL, 19, 2010102218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 816W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 60, 1010, 200, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RICHARD, S,
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (BOB04-2010)
17:30 PM IST October 22 2010
=============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Giri over northeast Bay of Bengal moved north northeastward and lays centered over northeast Bay of Bengal near 19.8N 93.5E, close to Myanmar coast or about 100 kms east southeast of Sittwe, Myanmar, 50 kms northwest of Kyaukpyu, Myanmar.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 90 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The central pressure of the system is 950 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates eye pattern. The eye diameter was about 8 kms. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T5.5

Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection is seen over east central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal between 16.0N to 21.0N and east of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move northeast, crossing Myanmar coast between Sittwe and Kyaukpyu within a few hours. Sustained winds of 105 knots gusting to 110 knots would occur along and off coast at time of landfall.

Storm surge of about 3-4 meters above the astronomical tide is expected at the time of landfall.

--
hmm...
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF just out says 16.1N/81.6W

AL, 19, 2010102218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 816W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 60, 1010, 200, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RICHARD, S,


So I am guessing that Richard has strengthened a little, up to 45 kts.
Quoting tropicfreak:


So I am guessing that Richard has strengthened a little, up to 45 kts.


nope, here is how you read that tropicfreak

161N, 816W, 35, 1006, TS,

161N, 816W (center), 35 (knots), 1006 (pressure), TS (storm status),

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


nope, here is how you read that tropicfreak

161N, 816W, 35, 1006, TS,

161N, 816W (center), 35 (knots), 1006 (pressure), TS (storm status),



Oh ok. Thanks!
Quoting GTcooliebai:

So If I'm getting this right anywhere from 271-314 degrees constitutes a NNE heading
I was almost buying off on the reformation of the center to the north, but time after time, the NHC people have it right. It's rare that they really blow it - especially on the three day track.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Oh ok. Thanks!


you're welcome
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #77
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
3:00 AM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (970 hPa) located at 22.7N 118.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.9N 117.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 27.0N 118.0E - Tropical Depression
Due north is 0 degrees, due east is 90 degrees, north east is 45 degrees and NNE is 22.5 degrees.
ENE is 67.5 degrees.

This is easy to figure out in that a full circle is 360 degrees.

A bit east of north is just that....not even close to NNE.

Just a question, If Richard would come to Florida about what day, I have a wedding photo shoot next Sat...It's an outdoor wedding. Poor bride if this comes toward Tampa ugh
Quoting dearmas:
Just a question, If Richard would come to Florida about what day, I have a wedding photo shoot next Sat...It's an outdoor wedding. Poor bride if this comes toward Tampa ugh


End of next week and into next weekend. Sorry brother. Looks like rain is coming back next week. It won't be raining all day tho.
370. IKE
Quoting dearmas:
Just a question, If Richard would come to Florida about what day, I have a wedding photo shoot next Sat...It's an outdoor wedding. Poor bride if this comes toward Tampa ugh


I would guess around 30th October or a little earlier.. the GFDL model only shows data up to 28th of October.
Quoting IKE:
i dont see any improvement this afternoon
i do sorry
Latest visible shows the center is still having a hard time organizing.

""

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


I would guess around 30th October or a little earlier.. the GFDL model only shows data up to 28th of October.


Great her wedding is on Oct 30th at 6pm outside...should make for great photos LOL
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
3:00 AM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 136.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.6N 133.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
380. IKE
HPC...day 6...




Day 7...

Quoting Grothar:


This sure seems to wanna go wnw or nw.
Quoting IKE:
HPC...day 6...




Day 7...



That looks totally reasonable, but someone posted the same thing yesterday and it had the low up near the big bend area.
Quoting Grothar:


Why do most of your pictures never show lol
385. IKE
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:


That looks totally reasonable, but someone posted the same thing yesterday and it had the low up near the big bend area.


Models have shifted south and west from yesterday.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
========================
The Tropical Depression in sea east of the Philippines near 17.0N 136.5E is expected to enter the Philippines area of responsibility and be named "Katring" within 24 hours.
Quoting IKE:
HPC...day 6...




Day 7...

Ike ..Its almost like magic. One day you see it the next day you dont.
Latest dynamic models:

Quoting Canesinlowplaces:


That looks totally reasonable, but someone posted the same thing yesterday and it had the low up near the big bend area.


That changes daily almost not worth posting that as the 6 to 7 forecast change so much. Richard is really tricky to forecast right now as forecast call west and it appears to organizing more north.
390. 7544
maybe the new model run will all shift east now with the center further north and take this thru the yucatan channel then up in the air after that . but as of this hour richard looks like he wants to go nnw imo
Quoting caneswatch:


Why do most of your pictures never show lol


If you didn't have such a cheap PC, you could see everything. LOL Anything new Canes? It is Friday October 22.
grothar,

that line that is drawn straight NW just touching a hair of the northeast Yucatan, is that a second potential path other than a straight west path that the models show right now? thanks
Quoting kshipre1:
grothar,

that line that is drawn straight NW just touching a hair of the northeast Yucatan, is that a second potential path other than a straight west path that the models show right now? thanks


No, just the Northern part of the "Cone of Uncertainty" They always allow for a wide margin of error. It is not a model forecast.
Quoting IKE:


Models have shifted south and west from yesterday.


I think they put a lot of emphasis on the European model - since it was showing northern GOM yesterday and now disipates it after crossing the Yucatan.
Quoting Grothar:


If you didn't have such a cheap PC, you could see everything. LOL Anything new Canes? It is Friday October 22.


Yep, it's the one year mark of someone nearly ruining me. For that person, I give her this song.
Can I get a few folks to post the link(s) to where they get shear forecast maps\info? I looked at the raw numbers from the link Dr. M posted above and it doesn't have shear much above 10 knts until 120 hrs out, and even there it's at 19 knts...
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (BOB04-2010)
20:30 PM IST October 22 2010
=============================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Giri over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and crossed Myanmar coast about 70 km to the east-southeast of Sittwe (Myanmar) around 1400 PM UTC and now lays centered over coastal areas of Myanmar near 20.0N 93.5E, about 70 km east-southeast of Sittwe(Myanmar) and 80 km northwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar).

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 80 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The central pressure of the system is 960 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates broken to solid intense to very intense convection over area between 18.5N to 21.5N and along 91.0E to 95.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -75C.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move northeastwards and weaken rapidly during next 24 hrs.
Quoting minorLeague:
Giri's intensification was pretty amazing. I wasn't following - anyone know whether the RI was predicted?
That's the trouble with these systems! intensification is so hard to predict! I just pray that there were no lives lost or very few lives lost!
ok, thanks
Wind picking up on the 057 buoy 40.8 knts

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F
402. eddye
why did everyone stop posting
Richard is definitely taking the way of the minority should it stay S and W. Ease up on the FL bashing, odds we're high and it's isn't over yet.



Red/Green/Blue composite... This is a composite of the GOES channel 1 visible and channel 4 infrared, into a false color image. Low clouds during the day will appear yellowish.
Looking at the discussions over the southeast, a lot say a strong ridge building in after a shortwave passes through on Monday. So a westerly track has some support from that.
406. 7544
looks like richie has moved nw the last few hours

now the blob to the south of r is moving west imo

Quoting Abacosurf:
Wind picking up on the 057 buoy 40.8 knts

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F

Appears that Richard is intensifying a bit!
May I say something that is not weather related ?
409. 7544
Quoting stormpetrol:


Appears that Richard is intensifying a bit!


yeap
Are the HH's in Richard now? What have they found?
Is it possible there is a decoupling occuring now with TS Richard?
Apparently, Grothar, WU's blog program doesn't like the percent % sign or the wavy ~ sign in addresses.
I just looked on radar and Richard looks worse, not better. Could be my eyesight, but.... Anyone else?
Richard has changed little in organization, but strengthening is likely tomorrow.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Is it possible there is a decoupling occuring now with TS Richard?


The mid level circulation has been moving NW or WNW while the surface low moved south earlier. Still not well organized but convection keeps firing over the mid level circulation if this becomes the dominate feature then the models will have to shift right as the mid level circulation is north of forecast points.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Richard has changed little in organization, but strengthening is likely tomorrow.


Is this the mid level circulation that has been moving wnw and if so then where is the surface low?
the low in the central atlantic is a sleeper so beware !!!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
May I say something that is not weather related ?


This blog is reserved for weather and Wade Phillips bashing, go somewhere else :)
Quoting eddye:
why did everyone stop posting


it's nap-time.
A full latitude trough will replace the temporary strong ridge which is a progressive ridge. It will not be parked over the southeast like previous scenarios. The trough will eject Richard into the east Gulf with low shear in the southern Gulf. Only in the N.Gulf will water temps be a problem and shear.
Quoting aspectre:
Apparently, Grothar, WU's Image program doesn't like the percent sign in front of the 7Evigh in that image address.
Let's see if it can handle the wavy ~ sign better than the " percent7 "
img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~Evigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs1.png"
alt="" width="500" height="320">


Thanks a, I decided to post the link. Sometimes the image takes and sometimes it doesn't. It always appears on my screen. I posted the link see if it works.

Link
Richard is not moving at all now. It is having a very hard time going west right now.
WV Loop TS Richard


Some High Towers in Warm SST's near the center.



Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
kwgirl....I agree...My ex was named Richard and he "Never" looked to good" later in life..Love KW girl...I stay at the Almond Tree Inn
Are you coming for Fantasy Fest? If the weather holds it will be great for the festival. And it looks better today now that I think Richard is not well organized. (had to stay on topic):)
Now this is interesting on the Euro and I'm surprised no one has mentioned it and that low developing east of the Bahamas moving due west toward FL's east coast. WEIRD!

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
Quoting Patrap:
Some High Towers in Warm SST's near the center.





I think they can see them better in this image!
(crack, bust, squash)

Grothar, is that two eyes on Richard?
If anybody gets a chance check the 12Z Euro out very weird pattern setting up with a develping system east of the Bahamas moving west.
Maybe we will see a Fay someday.



Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes.

Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data.

The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.
Quoting Grothar:


I think they can see them better in this image!
(crack, bust, squash)

looks to be crying in that image.... poor lil richard
Quoting kwgirl:
Grothar, is that two eyes on Richard?


Yes, and with a long droopy nose.

No, actually those are cold cloud tops to which Patrap referred in an earlier post. It means very strong towers building inside.
Quoting weaverwxman:
looks to be crying in that image.... poor lil richard


Hey, there used to be a local weatherman in Miami for about 90 years who was called "Weaver the Weather Man" any relation?? Great guy, by the way!
Recon will shed some light here shortly. I think the LLC is to the S of the convection and crawling very slowly due W.
Quoting Patrap:
Some High Towers in Warm SST's near the center.



Yup.

NOAA in the air

10/22 Richard1 NOAA N49RF UZNT13

Recon in the air

20:15:30Z 26.800N 88.500W 392.6 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,662 meters
(~ 25,138 feet)
Better domain for it:

Recon on the way again!
Quoting robert88:
Recon will shed some light here shortly. I think the LLC is to the S of the convection and crawling very slowly due W.


It's in the convection or that maybe the mid level one. Center either has reformed at now 16.4N or is about to form.
Got me, Grothar :-D "Don't know why... there's no sun up in the sky.." is remarkably appropriate for around here. Tryin for "forty days and forty nights"...
...of drizzle, so there ain't even the consolation of knowing The End Is Near!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, there used to be a local weatherman in Miami for about 90 years who was called "Weaver the Weather Man" any relation?? Great guy, by the way!
Not related but I never missed his weather forecast he was a fixture in S.Fla whom I think everyone respected
NOAA is down in Richard right now.

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 20:25Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Richard1
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 12

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 200mb
Coordinates: 15.1N 82.3W (View map)
Location: 297 miles (478 km) to the SSW (192°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 045 (About)


1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 335° (from the NNW) 18 knots (21 mph)
1000mb 59m (194 ft) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 330° (from the NNW) 18 knots (21 mph)
925mb 745m (2,444 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 20.0°C (68.0°F) 330° (from the NNW) 21 knots (24 mph)
850mb 1,479m (4,852 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 17.0°C (62.6°F) 325° (from the NW) 17 knots (20 mph)
700mb 3,126m (10,256 ft) 10.6°C (51.1°F) 7.8°C (46.0°F) 320° (from the NW) 7 knots (8 mph)
500mb 5,850m (19,193 ft) -6.3°C (20.7°F) Approximately -14°C (7°F) 360° (from the N) 21 knots (24 mph)
400mb 7,560m (24,803 ft) -15.9°C (3.4°F) Approximately -25°C (-13°F) 325° (from the NW) 12 knots (14 mph)
300mb 9,670m (31,726 ft) -30.3°C (-22.5°F) Approximately -45°C (-49°F) 285° (from the WNW) 10 knots (12 mph)
250mb 10,940m (35,892 ft) -39.9°C (-39.8°F) Approximately -47°C (-53°F) 200° (from the SSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
200mb 12,420m (40,748 ft) -53.1°C (-63.6°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 80° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
Quoting aspectre:
Got me, Grothar :-D "Don't know why... there's no sun up in the sky.." is remarkably appropriate for around here. Tryin for "forty days and forty nights"...
...of drizzle, so there ain't even the consolation of knowing The End Is Near!


Thought you'd get a kick out of that! If you can't laugh at least once a day, no sense getting up.
Quoting Patrap:
Some High Towers in Warm SST's near the center.





Agreed, so folks on here who are saying that Richard looks bad, are judging a book by its cover.
<
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, and with a long droopy nose.

No, actually those are cold cloud tops to which Patrap referred in an earlier post. It means very strong towers building inside.
Thanks. I realized after I posted and read Patrap's post that was probably what it was referring to. Well, I will be a wishcaster here and wish it anywhere but the Florida Keys. I was going to say Florida, but there are some areas that need the rain. I love looking at some of these charts and maps, but sometimes they make no sense to me. Sometimes they are so busy, I can't even make out the lines of the land behind them. Getting old is for the birds!
Quoting weaverwxman:
Not related but I never missed his weather forecast he was a fixture in S.Fla whom I think everyone respected


I can remember him when I was a kid, and trust me, that was a looooong time ago. He did a good job tracking the hurricanes back then. Of course he used chalk and did his own models.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
3:00 AM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Minami Torisima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 22.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
207 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY/...A WINDY AND WARM PERIOD
WILL BE THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX THRU THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A HEALTHY LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS OUR FA WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MORE SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS AND KEEP OUR
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THRU THE DAYTIME HRS ON SAT.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS FROM THIS AFTN WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EVE
HRS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WIND ADV IN
PLACE UNTIL 6 PM CDT AND THINK STRONGEST ADV CRIT WINDS WILL BE DONE
WITH BY THEN. PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TODAY EXPECTED ON SAT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY MID/LATE MRNG. WIND SPEEDS
MAY HOLD JUST UNDER ADV CRIT...BUT LIKE TDA...COULD BE CLOSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&

.LONG TERM /7 AM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
MONDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST TX WEDNESDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF A
STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. THURSDAY AS THE 12Z GFS ADVERTISES. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THIS BOUNDARY KEEPS THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR DEFLECTS WHAT IS LEFT OF
RICHARD NORTHEAST ONCE IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY PER THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. WITH THAT SAID...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD AT LEAST INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND ARTHUR CONVERGES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TX LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A RESULT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&

arthur?? lol
Quoting weaverwxman:
Not related but I never missed his weather forecast he was a fixture in S.Fla whom I think everyone respected


Loved Bob Weaver, grew up watching him and later met him at a golf driving range. A really good guy!!!
Looking at the UAD from NOAA, it appears the 400mb level is rather dry with air temp -15c and dewpoint -62c
Somebody stretched the blog!!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Looking at the UAD from NOAA, it appears the 400mb level is rather dry with air temp -15c and dewpoint -62c


Consistent with the last dropsonde up at 15.1N
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 81.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.




Quoting capeflorida:


Loved Bob Weaver, grew up watching him and later met him at a golf driving range. A really good guy!!!


Miami was just a small town back then, and everybody knew each other. Never met him, but we all felt like we knew him. Those were nice days down here.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Looking at the UAD from NOAA, it appears the 400mb level is rather dry with air temp -15c and dewpoint -62c


That is the reason why Richard has been unable to wrap up into something formidable. The air has been so stable to the W. Richard has been pulling that in to his circulation for days now.
I have a feeling that Richard is going to intensify rather quickly at or before dmax.

Quoting weaverwxman:
Not related but I never missed his weather forecast he was a fixture in S.Fla whom I think everyone respected
I moved away from Miami in 1973 and even I remember him.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Maybe we will see a Fay someday.



Someday but not anytime soon, I think.

That was an August storm, which is why it flirted with strengthening for a brief time after landfall. It also went right over Lake Okeechobee, which was at 90F at the time.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, there used to be a local weatherman in Miami for about 90 years who was called "Weaver the Weather Man" any relation?? Great guy, by the way!

Ah, Bob Weaver! Good man. He lived in Hollywood for a while near where I did, and I'd run into him at the Publix--in the bakery, always in the bakery--at least once a month for years. I remember when it was Don Noe, Bryan Norcross, and him on the Big Three networks. Good times...
ahh i almost in the path lol
Quoting Grothar:


Miami was just a small town back then, and everybody knew each other. Never met him, but we all felt like we knew him. Those were nice days down here.


You were living in Miami in 1900??

Just kidding.. just kidding! No offense, please.

But really, it has been a looooong time since Miami was a small town where everybody knew each other.
Conditions are only going to get worse with dry air and shear in the GOM here on out. It won't matter if a major hurricane develops in the Caribbean headed into the GOM as far as the CONUS goes. It will dry out in a blink of an eye. JMO
levi mention shear will briefly die down in the gom right before the front comes down so lets see
Quoting Neapolitan:

Ah, Bob Weaver! Good man. He lived in Hollywood for a while near where I did, and I'd run into him at the Publix--in the bakery, always in the bakery--at least once a month for years. I remember when it was Don Noe, Bryan Norcross, and him on the Big Three networks. Good times...

I was so glad Brian Norcross is on the Weather Channel.He walked us throug Andrew in 1992.I lived in the Redlands then...Now Palm Beach county
Afternoon everyone, sorry haven't been able to get on lately, been very busy. anyway, so i see we have 45 MPH tropical Storm Richard, cape verde system 90L, and two new depressions in the western pacific. so lets just say i've missed alot
Behind the scenes with Bob Weaver:

Quoting FLWaterFront:


You were living in Miami in 1900??

Just kidding.. just kidding! No offense, please.

But really, it has been a looooong time since Miami was a small town where everybody knew each other.
Miami was a small town in 1933 when my mom moved here from Akron. Bob Weaver was the only real weatheman in Miami for about 20 years. Brian Norcrossdresser was never a real weatherman IMO but did a great job the night Andrew lashed S. Miami that is his claim to fame
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

I was so glad Brian Norcross is on the Weather Channel.He walked us throug Andrew in 1992.I lived in the Redlands then...Now Palm Beach county


Yeah, he's improved with experience. He used to be the tropics' largest upcaster, and his fame from Andrew only worsened that for a few years until he found his footing. He used to make me crazy; every little swirl in the east Atlantic could become a tropical storm and could grow to be an Andrew-like monster and could be on a beeline to South Florida. Ah, well, we all live and learn.

At least, most of us do... ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:


Yeah, he's improved with experience. He used to be the tropics' largest upcaster, and his fame from Andrew only worsened that for a few years until he found his footing. He used to make me crazy; every little swirl in the east Atlantic could become a tropical storm and could grow to be an Andrew-like monster and could be on a beeline to South Florida. Ah, well, we all live and learn.

At least, most of us do... ;-)

And we all grow older and smarter Neo.Maybe..Bryan looks a liitle worse for wear, as we all do.. I have now been through Andrew,
Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, and grew up in Xenia Ohio, and experienced a big tornado April 3,1974, 3:40 pm...I always tell my friends......Don't follow me
PBWeather guess you missed out on Cleo Donna David those were fun times because i was very young and did not know any better
Quoting Patrap:

Nice,,,,,Just downloaded that video for my collection... thanks
from Mobile NWS

TUE AND WED...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEXT FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH DURING THE DAY THU WHICH FAVORS AN UPWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...RICHARD IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON/TUE
EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...OFF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE
PENINSULA ON WED. THU AND FRI...HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR RICHARD TO SURVIVE IF IT GAINS
ANY LATITUDE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 22.12Z RUN OF THE GFS/ECMWF
LOSE RICHARD`S CIRCULATION ALL TOGETHER BUT DO DIFFER ON HOW THE
WESTERLIES STRETCH OUT RICHARD`S TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF.

480. IKE
NEW BLOG!
New blog.