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Richard hits Belize, weakens to a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:38 PM GMT on October 25, 2010

Hurricane Richard hit central Belize last night at approximately 8:45pm EDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The hurricane made landfall about 20 miles south of Belize's largest city, Belize City (population approximately 100,000--1/3 of Belize's population.) Richard's northern eyewall passed just south of the airport, which measured top winds of 37 mph, gusting to 62mph, at 8pm CST. The airport picked up 3.66" of rain. Richard was a small hurricane, and hurricane-force winds affected a region of coast of no more than 20 - 30 miles wide, just to the south of Belize City. As Richard made landfall, the eye grew tighter and more defined, subjecting a smaller portion of the country to the extreme winds of the eyewall. This contraction of the eye was probably caused by frictional convergence--as the winds spiraling into the center of Richard passed from ocean to land, the increased friction caused the winds to slow down as they reached the eyewall. This made the inflowing air pile up near the eyewall, and this piled-up air was forced upwards into more violent updrafts, intensifying the thunderstorms in the eyewall and causing eye to contract. This intensification lasted only an hour or two, before the inland motion of the center removed Richard from its main energy source, the warm waters of the Western Caribbean.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Richard taken at 12:45pm EDT 10/24/10 by NASA's Aqua satellite. A the time, Richard was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The top winds measured at any station in Belize occurred at a personal weather station on the offshore island of Caya Caulker, which had sustained winds of 54 mph yesterday afternoon at 3:55pm CST local time. Despite the relatively small portion of Belize that was subjected to strong winds from Richard, the storm was able to knock out power to the entire nation for a period of many hours. There are no reports of deaths or injuries, but preliminary media reports indicate major wind and flooding damage in regions near where the center came ashore.

Richard was a hurricane for 18 hours, and was the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year's ten hurricanes ties it for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. Our seventeen named storms this year also ranks as the 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851.


Figure 2. Zoom radar image of Hurricane Richard at landfall, 8:53pm EDT 10/24/10. Belize City was just north of the northern eyewall, and did not receive tropical storm force winds, according to the hourly observations taken at the airport. However, Belmopan, the capital of Belize, experienced the northern eyewall of Richard. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
Richard has weakened to a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, as it moves west-northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula. Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph will lead to continued weakening today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, moderate wind shear and dry air over the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) centered near 23N 42W in the middle Atlantic Ocean, has developed a broad circulation. A band of heavy thunderstorms has developed in an arc to the north and east of the storm, well removed from the center, suggesting that 90L is a hybrid subtropical system. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, but is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, this afternoon through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, though water temperatures are marginal for development, just 26.5 - 27°C (26.5°C is usually the limiting SST that a tropical storm can develop at.) The NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a depression by Friday, when the storm will be near Bermuda. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Tuesday. I'm not sure when that update will be, as I am catching a flight to Miami in the morning. I've been invited to spend the week at the National Hurricane Center as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll be writing a post later this week about what a shift is like at the Hurricane Center. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Obvioulsy I need to do the same - some have not contributed one sourced document while arguing the entire time.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


The advancing ones are tricky because it is not actually indicative of "growth" in every instance.

Higher elevation ones do sometimes really advance with more precipitation.


Of course, they do. There has been a joke for many year in the Scandinavian countries, that we shall have to change our games in the Winter Olympics from Skiing and ice-skating to swimming and diving if we want to stay competitive. LOL The glacial areas have declined remarkably since I was a young boy in Norway. Even the growth line has advanced higher in the fjord regions as well. I guess it will be nice to grow oranges in Norway.
I would hope some of you have some expertise in something related to weather and climate and would like to see it now.
I'm talking about ALL of you. Those closed minds of yours aren't open to discussion - just argument.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Worked for me :)


Man, my opinion of the blog just increased exponentially, and I don't know why!!

Also, we (the blog) need a distraction. So, see how many of last decade's hurricanes we remember: Link

I got them all :P
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think he is here to try and rip the Blog apart... I must admit.. he is doing a pretty good job so far.

There are 3 or 4 people here intentionally trying to start a war...

So far I have a few of them on ignore.. but obviously I am going to have to add one or two more.
I've mostly not been reading them, I admit freely. I just really noted the shift in tone - wasn't Kerry the one who posted a lot of good stuff about the oil spill and other interesting things earlier this year? Seems sad to see a good blogger go down.... :o(

Anyway it looks like not much is being said about the potential for further development this week, nor about effects of the two big cat 4s we had last week.... so I might just -s- out for a few hours..... maybe catch the night shift rather than the evening bickerers... "Evening Bickerers".... sounds like some kind of esoteric think tank...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Tropical Update From Texas! Richard Slams Belize; Shary And Tomas Possible; With Video!
Check out my new update for October 25, 2010...


Do you think future Tomas is a threat to the States? And what happen to the audio?
Nice breeze. Tropical showers passing through. Lifes good!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
I've mostly not been reading them, I admit freely. I just really noted the shift in tone - wasn't Kerry the one who posted a lot of good stuff about the oil spill and other interesting things earlier this year? Seems sad to see a good blogger go down.... :o(

Anyway it looks like not much is being said about the potential for further development this week, nor about effects of the two big cat 4s we had last week.... so I might just -s- out for a few hours..... maybe catch the night shift rather than the evening bickerers... "Evening Bickerers".... sounds like some kind of esoteric think tank...
I am not trying to split the blog apart. I am not paranoid. I did unfortunately use the "W" word over 2 months ago after a lot of hurtful anti American sentiment had been spewed. I have apologized about a half a dozen times since and not one of these so called righteous persons has accepted it and we will see again if they can "forgive" me. They are really upset I refer to my country (The United States of America) as America. Trying to tear the blog apart. No way.
Keeper come on - cant you be better than that. You use imaginary from several institutions seriously studying climate change. Also considering my professional training if you really want to get into an imagery war id bet you'd lose.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...BUT
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.
yipes the front passed without a drop of rain.

Fla is in for some serious fire problems if this continues till after the first freeze.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
yipes the front passed without a drop of rain.

Fla is in for some serious fire problems if this continues till after the first freeze.


What front?

Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:
Does Maddow's adam's apple grow when you water her chia pet?


LMAO
Quoting JFLORIDA:


You are lucky to be there. I always to visit. My grandmothers family on my fathers side was from Sweden


No, I live in Florida now. I figured if Global warming were to be true, I might as well get a head start and see what it will be like. (chuckle) I lived back and forth between Europe, Florida and Long Island most of my life.
A lot of energy associated with the jet stream coming in off the Pacific. This set up should produce a massive storm for the Great Lakes, and a powerful squall line..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i bet i won't





LOLRA. Gosh that's funny!
G'nite all, going to watch Dallas likely lose to the giants.
Tropical Update From Texas! Richard Slams Belize; Shary And Tomas Possible; With Video!
Check out my new update for October 25, 2010...


I'm wondering if richard will make it to the western gulf. Looks like whatever is left of him is fixing to get sucked up to the northeast!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


LMAO.
Quoting unruly:
its refreshing to see your back, spewing the same old stuff and goading people into fights...the blogs were nice and quiet for a while...

its a nice comfy 50F and looking at a high of 68 tomorrow.


Should I put him on the ignore list?
It's ancient history, he apologized. Let it go, StKappaSigGuy.
Quoting pilotguy1:


Should I put him on the ignore list?

The Ignore List Crowd
KOG, are you really going to let him goad you into a 24 hour penalty?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


all the documents ya need



Nice, KOTG. Appropos.
Ok, but he apologized, accept his apology like you would want someone to accept yours and move on.
Quoting pilotguy1:


You are a rude person who should be kicked off this blog for being a dishonest jerk.


PG, does this person remind you of someone who was, "gone", recently?
Quoting AEKDB1990:
From what I've been able to figure out you didn't even join this board until SSI was banned.


And by the looks of it, neither did you....

Member Since: October 16, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I am not trying to split the blog apart. I am not paranoid. I did unfortunately use the "W" word over 2 months ago after a lot of hurtful anti American sentiment had been spewed. I have apologized about a half a dozen times since and not one of these so called righteous persons has accepted it and we will see again if they can "forgive" me. They are really upset I refer to my country (The United States of America) as America. Trying to tear the blog apart. No way.
Forgiven! Please post something weather related. People that know, seem to like you better when you are "ON Topic". I would like to hear your thoughts on 209.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i bet i won't





Bet I wouldn't be so interested in wasting my time and disrespecting Dr Masters blog by responding. Knock yourself out. I go for slightly more advanced stuff anyway.
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
I've been invited to spend the week at the National Hurricane Center as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll be writing a post later this week about what a shift is like at the Hurricane Center. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.

During his visit, do you think Dr. Masters will be invited to any of those closed-door meetings there where all the members of the Guild Of Evil Meteorologists gather in the NHC's dark, candle-lit sub-basement in their hooded robes to recite ancient incantations, sacrifice goats, make blood offerings, and plan the best course of action to defraud the public? From what I've been able to gather from the comments of some posters here, they apparently hold three types of such sessions: the first to decide which non-TCs will get names (so they can artificially inflate the numbers to meet their hyped-up pre-season forecasts); the second to decide which obvious TCs not to name (so they don't start a panic or make the unprepared government look bad); and a third to direct the CIA covert ops guys running HAARP to aim that climate-altering weapon at some particular storm or other (to deflect it either away from or toward the United States, depending on both the President's poll numbers and the media's agenda at that moment).

Don't know about you, but I'd like to sit in... ;-)
Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:
Ok, but he apologized, accept his apology like you would want someone to accept yours and move on.


He lied in his apology, making it sound like he was defending America. When he was just pissed at people posting in Spanish and wanted to post something hateful. So the answer is no, lionrock.
Quoting Neapolitan:

During his visit, do you think Dr. Masters will be invited to any of those closed-door meetings there where all the members of the Guild Of Evil Meteorologists gather in the NHC's dark, candle-lit sub-basement in their hooded robes to recite ancient incantations, sacrifice goats, make blood offerings, and plan the best course of action to defraud the public? From what I've been able to gather from the comments of some posters here, they apparently hold three types of such sessions: the first to decide which non-TCs will get names (so they can artificially inflate the numbers to meet their hyped-up pre-season forecasts); the second to decide which obvious TCs not to name (so they don't start a panic or make the unprepared government look bad); and a third to direct the CIA covert ops guys running HAARP to aim that climate-altering weapon at some particular storm or other (to deflect it either away from or toward the United States, depending on both the President's poll numbers and the media's agenda at that moment).

Don't know about you, but I'd like to sit in... ;-)


OK, I had to read it twice.. thats actually pretty funny :)
Good night all. Beam me up Scotty. No intelligent life down here.
At what point did I infer a political "solution:" for warming here. I only really discus the science side of it.

Anyway you shouldn't avoid difficult or technical topics just because they make you uncomfortable.


Argument is meant to reveal the truth, not to create it. - Edward de Bono
WOW!

Orca, what did you do! lol
Quoting AEKDB1990:


Why? You're the one posting lies here. You lied about a climatologist comparing global temperatures top a phone book--no climatologist said that.

And you posted a phony list of growing glaciers. Norway, the first country listed on your link has surveyed glaciers shrinking by an 11 to 1 margin according to the link. I don't see any apologies from you for posting falsehoods and lies on the blog.

Which you repeatedly do.
you sound very much like "the one" hhmmmm curiouser and curiouser.
interesting member date...and everyone is a liar? goading for an argument much like your friend JF... even curiouser...

boy its gonna be nice to see temps in the high 60s and 70s this week here.
Quoting pilotguy1:


Not when you are involved. The trouble with a one track mind is it's narrow track and lack of switching facilities.


What ? Do I know you?
Quoting Neapolitan:

During his visit, do you think Dr. Masters will be invited to any of those closed-door meetings there where all the members of the Guild Of Evil Meteorologists gather in the NHC's dark, candle-lit sub-basement in their hooded robes to recite ancient incantations, sacrifice goats, make blood offerings, and plan the best course of action to defraud the public? From what I've been able to gather from the comments of some posters here, they apparently hold three types of such sessions: the first to decide which non-TCs will get names (so they can artificially inflate the numbers to meet their hyped-up pre-season forecasts); the second to decide which obvious TCs not to name (so they don't start a panic or make the unprepared government look bad); and a third to direct the CIA covert ops guys running HAARP to aim that climate-altering weapon at some particular storm or other (to deflect it either away from or toward the United States, depending on both the President's poll numbers and the media's agenda at that moment).

Don't know about you, but I'd like to sit in... ;-)


I always wondered what happened behind closed doors!! lol
I love how everyone argues global warming on the last 100 years of data. There is no data from 1000 years ago or 2000 years ago so all you all know is that this could easily be a natural cycle. Earth has been around far longer than the 100 years we have collected weather data.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


What front?



Hmm indeed. odd.
Link

Here is a little visual for ya Nea!
Quoting scooster67:
Forgiven! Please post something weather related. People that know, seem to like you better when you are "ON Topic". I would like to hear your thoughts on 209.

That would be 509.
Quoting doorman79:
WOW!

Orca, what did you do! lol


I have no idea?
I am only seeing about 1 in 3 posts right now.
Did I say something to set the loonies off?
Quoting unruly:
you sound very much like "the one" hhmmmm curiouser and curiouser.
interesting member date...and everyone is a liar? goading for an argument much like your friend JF... even curiouser...

boy its gonna be nice to see temps in the high 60s and 70s this week here.


Truly spoken, oh Unruly one. The behavior doesn't seem to change, regardless of the handle.

Temps here in the mid to upper 80's.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I love how everyone argues global warming on the last 100 years of data. There is no data from 1000 years ago or 2000 years ago so all you all know is that this could easily be a natural cycle. Earth has been around far longer than the 100 years we have collected weather data.
Quoting doorman79:
Link

Here is a little visual for ya Nea!

Yep, that's the soundtrack I was hearing in my mind...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have no idea?
I am only seeing about 1 in 3 posts right now.
Did I say something to set the loonies off?


Na, but had to mess with ya!
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I love how everyone argues global warming on the last 100 years of data. There is no data from 1000 years ago or 2000 years ago so all you all know is that this could easily be a natural cycle. Earth has been around far longer than the 100 years we have collected weather data.


Not so. We have tree ring data. We have accounts of the first bloomings of fruit trees and the dates of first frosts. We have O16/O18 ratios in the remains of living things that we can date and determine temperatures for. We can also date sea level rises and falls. So we have solid data going back much much further than 100 years.

The 100 years of temperature data is a common misconception among those who don't know much about climate studies.
Quoting AEKDB1990:



You're lying Kerry. The blog is up for all to see, entry 1579. Comment 2293. No one was saying anything anti-American. Anyone can check what was being said before you said racist language. There were some people posting in Spanish. You took offense and posted a racist comment just people some people were posting in Spanish. Not because you were defending against anyone posting anti-American statements. That was not happening Kerry.

Some people were posting in Spanish, and you got angry and let your true colors show. All there is to it.
As I remember it there had been anti American comments on prior days and some jerk comes on and starts talking Spanish despite repeated requests to speak English or at least translate to English because, DA, if you didn' notice this is an English speaking blog. I know I will be called something for that statement but it is very rude also to speak another language on an English speaking blog. Do you agree?
At any rate you no doubt have read my apology as have others and NOT ONE has the guts to say "accepted" or some similar phrase. Whose true colors are really being revealed now?
Imagery sways lesser minds by creating a kind of metaphoric mnemonic or truism that facilitates stereotypes and a generalized classification. Thats why political cartoons are so prevalent and useful, even when incorrect. Visually they create a "truth" associated with more powerful visual styles.

Of course they change with the weather and reveal, when used incorrectly, a overt incompetence in presenting factual arguments.

I still love this quote:

"Argument is meant to reveal the truth, not to create it." - Edward de Bono

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Truly spoken, oh Unruly one. The behavior doesn't seem to change, regardless of the handle.



Can't change one's behavior, but we can change how we react to it. Is anybody listening?



Its a shame this blog was allowed to be taken over by trolls and anti science posters.

Its time we corrected that.

No wonder no one really stays that posts in here. Its cliques and simpletons and little real, sourced argument.

This is a technical science based site, and the community needs to be maintained as such. The rest can head off to facebook. Better posters will come.
Knowing of Dr masters positions I come here to offer input and learn - not disrespect him nor be parasite on the aura of the science and truth of this field.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Bet I wouldn't be so interested in wasting my time and disrespecting Dr Masters blog by responding. Knock yourself out. I go for slightly more advanced stuff anyway.
thats because you are so far ABOVE the rest of us...
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Can't change one's behavior, but we can change how we react to it. Is anybody listening?





I hear you. Well said. Brief and right to the point. Reminds me of someone I conversed with "before".

However, some stuff can't be left unchallenged.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Its a shame this blog was allowed to be taken over by trolls and anti science posters.


In my view, the real problem is that there are far more enablers here than trolls. They are the ones who perpetuate the problem. If it were not for them, the trolls would starve.

As for the anti science posters - if there are any - well, we all have our own levels of interpretation and understanding. They are all welcome.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
crickets...can you answer those questions? Yea sorry to destroy your research by asking simple questions. Ask.com wont have the answer for you.


I can answer this! Whether you believe in global warming or not, the earth cannot sustain the habbits of man. There is only so much oil, copper, iron ore, etc. Now with multiple countries and billions of people going through industrial revolutions, we will run out! Saying that, better hope tech can keep up. Now the way I see it is the businesses will ride the wave to the end. We do need another manhattan project, or a practical race for the moon. Look, all politicians are crocks and will try to scare you for a vote. I know that will offend pretty much everyone here(left and right). What we seem to forget for all the bickering is that we are being robbed right in front of us! And if someone says no, not my side, then you are blinded!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


However, some stuff can't be left unchallenged.



Understood, for sure.
Quoting unruly:
thats because you are so far ABOVE the rest of us...


He is a legend in his own mind. Probably a college professor. They are usually only the only ones so arrogant in their knowledge.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
At what point did I infer a political "solution:" for warming here. I only really discus the science side of it.

Anyway you shouldn't avoid difficult or technical topics just because they make you uncomfortable.


Argument is meant to reveal the truth, not to create it. - Edward de Bono


Thats a flag again JF. Its actually a double flag this time because you bolded the size 36 font.
Quoting doorman79:


I can answer this! Whether you believe in global warming or not, the earth cannot sustain the habbits of man. There is only so much oil, copper, iron ore, etc. Now with multiple countries and billions of people going through industrial revolutions, we will run out! Saying that, better hope tech can keep up. Now the way I see it is the businesses will ride the wave to the end. We do need another manhattan project, or a practical race for the moon. Look, all politicians are crocks and will try to scare you for a vote. I know that will offend pretty much everyone here(left and right). What we seem to forget for all the bickering is that we are being robbed right in front of us! And if someone says no, not my side, then you are blinded!

Dont disagree with man using up supplies but that has nothing to do with global warming. we have evolved over time and will continue. 10 years from now we will probably not need nearly the amount of oil we do now. we will find other fuels and other ways to do business.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Its a shame this blog was allowed to be taken over by trolls and anti science posters.

Its time we corrected that.

No wonder no one really stays that posts in here. Its cliques and simpletons and little real, sourced argument.

This is a technical science based site, and the community needs to be maintained as such. The rest can head off to facebook. Better posters will come.
I fully agree with you.
But also the hateful belittling of someone for not being "as educated" as we are and constantly calling everyone trolls, morons, racists, etc must stop.

One final point on the language thing. If you can speak English and other languages, speak English on this blog PLEASE. Dr M probably should set the rule on this but I suspect he doesn't want to wade into such a hot button issue. All us unfortunate to not speak anything but English would appreciate it.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Thats a flag again JF. Its actually a double flag this time because you bolded the size 36 font.


Wow, you really knew the font size?

Guess im behind the times!
Looks like the season and board are both winding down
..Not much going on..
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Dont disagree with man using up supplies but that has nothing to do with global warming. we have evolved over time and will continue. 10 years from now we will probably not need nearly the amount of oil we do now. we will find other fuels and other ways to do business.


Then, where will it come from? Private/public sectors, or another country? While we bicker over bullshi+
Quoting Orcasystems:
KOG, are you really going to let him goad you into a 24 hour penalty?
no not really
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Imagery sways lesser minds by creating a kind of metaphoric mnemonic or truism that facilitates stereotypes and a generalized classification. Thats why political cartoons are so prevalent and useful, even when incorrect. Visually they create a "truth" associated with more powerful visual styles.

Of course they change with the weather and reveal, when used incorrectly, a overt incompetence in presenting factual arguments.

I still love this quote:

"Argument is meant to reveal the truth, not to create it." - Edward de Bono

is your vocabulary meant to impress those you wish to inform? i doubt that being verbose and loquacious in this forum, will benefit you or those you seek to influence. your impression of your ideas upon those which you wish to influence, will not be taken as you see fitting.
Ok lets get back on topic.

I actually thought we were behind on tornadoes this year considering the US slow tropical situation - but I guess that isnt true:

Quoting doorman79:


Then, where will it come from? Private/public sectors, or another country? While we bicker over bullshi+

If I could predict the future out past 72 hours I would make a whole lot of money. People will invent things just like they always do. 20 years ago people were arguing about how some problem would be solved and then 15 years later someone smarter than us figured it out. It will happen.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Dont disagree with man using up supplies but that has nothing to do with global warming. we have evolved over time and will continue. 10 years from now we will probably not need nearly the amount of oil we do now. we will find other fuels and other ways to do business.



Exactly. Boobs always bring a touch of reality.
Quoting Ameister12:
Yikes! Ohio is under a moderate chance of Severe storms tomorrow. Hopefully we don't get anything terrible.


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND MUCH OF
INDIANA...KENTUCKY AND OHIO...WHERE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES...
I guess I was right on Friday when I said that we might have to be concerned more about severe weather from a cold front rather than a us strike from Richard.
Quoting Ameister12:
Yikes! Ohio is under a moderate chance of Severe storms tomorrow. Hopefully we don't get anything terrible.


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND MUCH OF
INDIANA...KENTUCKY AND OHIO...WHERE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES...
Quoting Skyepony:
Hawaii Rejects Proposed Ban on Solar Energy


Thats Great!

Only one prob still with solar, I and most here can't afford it! But, It could be in the future.
Quoting Skyepony:
Hawaii Rejects Proposed Ban on Solar Energy

"The decision came despite requests from Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) to postpone the program over concerns that added distributed generation resources could destabilize the islands' power grids."

Wow. I've heard some lame arguments before, but that's one of the most specious. Kinda like, "The decision to allow people to cook at home came despite requests from the Hawaiian Food Service Association(HFSA) to postpone the program over concerns that added distributed feeding resources could destabilize the islands' restaurant industry." Incredible...but good for the people of Hawaii. It's always good to see common sense triumph over corporate interests.
Quoting doorman79:


Thats Great!

Only one prob still with solar, I and most here can't afford it! But, It could be in the future.

See maybe if our ozone goes away it will be easier to get solar energy and in 20 years we will have 100 mph solar powered cars not requiring oil and someone will cure skin cancer so we dont have to worry about UV rays anymore. You never know.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

If I could predict the future out past 72 hours I would make a whole lot of money. People will invent things just like they always do. 20 years ago people were arguing about how some problem would be solved and then 15 years later someone smarter than us figured it out. It will happen.


But you left out one part of the answer to the ? Will it be us or someone else? As long as we are so divided, we cannot be the one to find it!
A question or two for all believers and non-believers in GW.
Exactly how much (%) does human-kind play in the GW issue?
If a couple of large volcanic eruptions were to occur,how would that effect the pattern we are now in(apparent temperature rise)? Are humans as significant in the natural cycles of the earth or are we just passengers? I don't have a particular point of view on the matter , just trying to have all the info I can.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Hey Orca, I always wanted to ask you something. If you're from Canada, how come your English is so good?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


In my view, the real problem is that there are far more enablers here than trolls. They are the ones who perpetuate the problem. If it were not for them, the trolls would starve.

As for the anti science posters - if there are any - well, we all have our own levels of interpretation and understanding. They are all welcome.
Yes the creationists and company who say things like "God sent Katrina to New Orleans" are welcome. Yes it's a little hurtful, but I don't run around like I'm having a baby or something because it was said.
Quoting doorman79:


But you left out one part of the answer to the ? Will it be us or someone else? As long as we are so divided, we cannot be the one to find it!

It wont be me I promise that haha.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Yea the trolls are attacking in force. I should have never left the main blog. None of these people were here doing this type of thing. Defending and perpetuating racist commentary, off topic, forming thuggish cliques. Thats not why WU is here.

Do me a favor - log out then read your posts. Or select best on the filter.

See that. Its a shame its abused so often for petty purposes but it does work occasionally.
well now, you have finally put your foot in your mouth. i have never been innapropriate. the only people who banned me for nothing was you and the "one" and yet if you sign out, you cant see me...because you and SSI spent all your free time flagging me ...hey JF "new" does not = "troll" i see you probly have me on ignore cuz ive been calling you out for the last half hour with no response....hmmm curiouser and curiouser....

maybe someone would be willing to help you see my posts...


i cant wait for wednesday ITS GONNA HIT 70...prob for the last time till april...
Quoting Skyepony:
Hawaii Rejects Proposed Ban on Solar Energy


Im glad it was rejected even if they need to update their infrastructure. By around 2014 the cost of photovoltaics is projected to slip blow fossil fuels ( its surprisingly close now) after that point the use of fossil fuels will decline by market forces in America.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Dont disagree with man using up supplies but that has nothing to do with global warming. we have evolved over time and will continue. 10 years from now we will probably not need nearly the amount of oil we do now. we will find other fuels and other ways to do business.


The problem is that people have been using the "in 10 years time we will probably not need..." line for years. When I was in school, back in the early 90s, people were talking in the UK about oil running out, and the standard response was "but we can keep using it as we are now, because in the future we won't need as much". Well, the future's here, and we use more now than we used to...

Unless people get serious about acting on depleting resources, then the only time we'll seriously lower our usage will be when things run out.

As for the climate change arguments -- I personally think that the overwhelming weight of evidence supports the idea that human activity is causing the planet to warm. I'm an astronomer, rather than climate scientist, so I'm not qualified to comment on the minutae of weather systems etc. (why I tend to lurk on here, rather than post) - but I do know a bit about the astronomical influences on the Earth's climate. There is strong evidence that the planet is warming. Many people argue that the Sun is the cause of this -- that's pretty much been debunked recently, though. Solar output has actually fallen in recent years, but the climate has held steady and warmed a bit. People argue that the Milankovic cycles could be the cause of the current warming -- but having worked studying them from a dynamical viewpoint, I can assure you they act on signifiacntly longer timescales than a century...

Regardless of whether you believe climate change is man-made, is part of a natural cycle, or that it's all poppycock, I tend to think the rational thing to do is work as though the worst-case scenario will happen. Everyone, on all sides of the debate, agrees that nothing is certain (though the weight of evidence looks to overwhelmingly lean one way, in my opinion). With that in mind, there are two routes we can follow (simplistically):

1) Do nothing - carry on as we are
2) Pump lots of money in to developing technologies that don't produce greenhouse gasses, renewable energy etc.

Now, if AGW turns out to have been wrong, and we follow route 1, we'll still eventually run into resources being depleted, and have to develop the new technologies at a higher cost, in a rush. If we follow route 2, we take a short term hit (investment costs money) - which might mean more expensive fuel prices, things like that, but we create new jobs, and promote R&D (which research has shown raises the GDP and standard of living of countries, in the long run) - which means we get the new technologies and renewable energy sources sooner, meaning that the resources that remain can be put to better use than simply being burnt to create energy.

So, in that scenario (as someone who would love to see science and R&D giving a funding boost!), I'd go with option 2.

Now, in the scenario where AGW turns out to be an accurate portrayal of reality, then option 1 leads us into a climate hellhole of DOOM, while option 2 spares us the worst ravages of what it could lead to.

So, again, to my mind, option two is the better route to follow.

Now, I admit I'm likely biased in my viewpoint (being someone who is convinced by the evidence for AGW), but I kind of think we'd be foolish to carry on as we are, regardless of whether AGW turns out to be the truth.

---------------------------

As a brief comment on weather -- I was up at the Anglo-Australian Telescope last week, and had the most amazing sunset I've ever seen... I took plenty of piccies -- here are a couple for you to enjoy :)





Quoting Grothar:


Hey Orca, I always wanted to ask you something. If you're from Canada, how come your English is so good?


eh?
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
A question or two for all believers and non-believers in GW.
Exactly how much (%) does human-kind play in the GW issue?
If a couple of large volcanic eruptions were to occur,how would that effect the pattern we are now in(apparent temperature rise)? Are humans as significant in the natural cycles of the earth or are we just passengers? I don't have a particular point of view on the matter , just trying to have all the info I can.


I looked that up a bit ago - ill try to find it again. Its actually rather interesting.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

See maybe if our ozone goes away it will be easier to get solar energy and in 20 years we will have 100 mph solar powered cars not requiring oil and someone will cure skin cancer so we dont have to worry about UV rays anymore. You never know.

Or we could keep the status quo of the last thirty years and be lazy pigs while the world passes us bye!
Quoting Quadrantid:
As a brief comment on weather -- I was up at the Anglo-Australian Telescope last week, and had the most amazing sunset I've ever seen... I took plenty of piccies -- here are a couple for you to enjoy.



I never use the word, but those pictures are "awesome".
Dr. Jeff mentions the season ranking in terms of number of named storms and hurricanes. I thought that the recognized measure of a storm or season was it's ACE calculation. This year 14th, I believe, in that ranking. He also mentions that the records go back to 1851. Is he suggesting that records of number of storms or hurricanes is in anyway a meaningful comparison before the RADAR and satelite era? I notice 2009 has one of the lowest ACE rankings on record. It's really disappointing to see that someone who is so well respected in storm prediction has accepted global warming as a religion.

Quoting Grothar:


I never use the word, but those pictures are "awesome".


Glad they brought a smile. I've never seen a sunset like it (probably because I've never been somewhere like Australia before... settling in to life in Sydney at the moment, and loveing it!). The colours actually were like that -- was just breathtaking... a storm rolling in as the sun set.

It's fair to say I'm desperate to go back there :D
Quoting unruly:
well now, you have finally put your foot in your mouth. i have never been innapropriate. the only people who banned me for nothing was you and the "one" and yet if you sign out, you cant see me...because you and SSI spent all your free time flagging me ...hey JF "new" does not = "troll" i see you probly have me on ignore cuz ive been calling you out for the last half hour with no response....hmmm curiouser and curiouser....

maybe someone would be willing to help you see my posts...


i cant wait for wednesday ITS GONNA HIT 70...prob for the last time till april...


What?
Quoting JFLORIDA:


the Matanuska Glacier for one at one time - its isn't Growing its advancing because as it melts it thins and creates a sheet of water to flow on.

But lets be specific and honest:

No glacier growth on the planet I am aware of indicates/or is explained by anything but GW.

From increased snowfall in colder regions to lubricating and thinning factors.

You are welcome if you find one and we will analyze it.


Would you agree, that in the earth's recent past, ice sheets covered quite an extensive area of the earth's surface?

"...An ice sheet is a mass of glacier ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 20,000 mile², thus also known as continental glacier. The only current ice sheets are in Antarctica and Greenland; during the last glacial period at Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) the Laurentide ice sheet covered much of Canada and North America, the Weichselian ice sheet covered northern Europe and the Patagonian Ice Sheet covered southern South America..."

If that is agreeable, then would you agree that these ice sheets have been retreating since then?

And that man had no input to either the glaciation or retreat?
Quoting Quadrantid:


The problem is that people have been using the "in 10 years time we will probably not need..." line for years. When I was in school, back in the early 90s, people were talking in the UK about oil running out, and the standard response was "but we can keep using it as we are now, because in the future we won't need as much". Well, the future's here, and we use more now than we used to...

Unless people get serious about acting on depleting resources, then the only time we'll seriously lower our usage will be when things run out.

As for the climate change arguments -- I personally think that the overwhelming weight of evidence supports the idea that human activity is causing the planet to warm. I'm an astronomer, rather than climate scientist, so I'm not qualified to comment on the minutae of weather systems etc. (why I tend to lurk on here, rather than post) - but I do know a bit about the astronomical influences on the Earth's climate. There is strong evidence that the planet is warming. Many people argue that the Sun is the cause of this -- that's pretty much been debunked recently, though. Solar output has actually fallen in recent years, but the climate has held steady and warmed a bit. People argue that the Milankovic cycles could be the cause of the current warming -- but having worked studying them from a dynamical viewpoint, I can assure you they act on signifiacntly longer timescales than a century...

Regardless of whether you believe climate change is man-made, is part of a natural cycle, or that it's all poppycock, I tend to think the rational thing to do is work as though the worst-case scenario will happen. Everyone, on all sides of the debate, agrees that nothing is certain (though the weight of evidence looks to overwhelmingly lean one way, in my opinion). With that in mind, there are two routes we can follow (simplistically):

1) Do nothing - carry on as we are
2) Pump lots of money in to developing technologies that don't produce greenhouse gasses, renewable energy etc.

Now, if AGW turns out to have been wrong, and we follow route 1, we'll still eventually run into resources being depleted, and have to develop the new technologies at a higher cost, in a rush. If we follow route 2, we take a short term hit (investment costs money) - which might mean more expensive fuel prices, things like that, but we create new jobs, and promote R&D (which research has shown raises the GDP and standard of living of countries, in the long run) - which means we get the new technologies and renewable energy sources sooner, meaning that the resources that remain can be put to better use than simply being burnt to create energy.

So, in that scenario (as someone who would love to see science and R&D giving a funding boost!), I'd go with option 2.

Now, in the scenario where AGW turns out to be an accurate portrayal of reality, then option 1 leads us into a climate hellhole of DOOM, while option 2 spares us the worst ravages of what it could lead to.

So, again, to my mind, option two is the better route to follow.

Now, I admit I'm likely biased in my viewpoint (being someone who is convinced by the evidence for AGW), but I kind of think we'd be foolish to carry on as we are, regardless of whether AGW turns out to be the truth.

---------------------------

As a brief comment on weather -- I was up at the Anglo-Australian Telescope last week, and had the most amazing sunset I've ever seen... I took plenty of piccies -- here are a couple for you to enjoy :)






Cool pics...Things have changed...we have wind power now, testing more solar power, and ethanol.

My issue is that if we start messing with the climate and playing games to protect against what some feel is the worst case situation and in reality it turns out to be a natural cycle, we then have had a larger impact on the natural cycle instead of just letting nature take its course.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes the creationists and company who say things like "God sent Katrina to New Orleans" are welcome. Yes it's a little hurtful, but I don't run around like I'm having a baby or something because it was said.


You having a baby! Wasnt there a movie about a guy having a kid?
Did anyone else see the magnificent thunderstorm off the coast of Brunswick, GA? I was watching the constant lightning from Jacksonville. Radar showed very distinct rotation indicating a waterspout. Radar was also indicating hail upwards of 2".
Quoting Orcasystems:


eh?


I give up, I try to offer a middle of the road explanation, and WTF!
Quoting Quadrantid:


Glad they brought a smile. I've never seen a sunset like it (probably because I've never been somewhere like Australia before... settling in to life in Sydney at the moment, and loveing it!). The colours actually were like that -- was just breathtaking... a storm rolling in as the sun set.

It's fair to say I'm desperate to go back there :D


Great to see nature at its finest. I notice you use British spelling. May I ask where you are from?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Did anyone else see the magnificent thunderstorm off the coast of Brunswick, GA? I was watching the constant lightning from Jacksonville. Radar showed very distinct rotation indicating a waterspout. Radar was also indicating hail upwards of 2".


If someone on here happens to be from St. Simons they might have seen it today.
So what's this "Great Lakes Cyclone" all about?
Quoting Orcasystems:


eh?


Ah, still got an accent, I see! LOL How you doing tonight Orca? Too bad you are a few times zones away from me. You can have a few more hours on the blog than I.
Whoa!! Tropical blog is definitely done with this season.. until June 1st 2011, peace out everyone, happy holidays and a great new year.
Quoting Quadrantid:


The problem is that people have been using the "in 10 years time we will probably not need..." line for years. When I was in school, back in the early 90s, people were talking in the UK about oil running out, and the standard response was "but we can keep using it as we are now, because in the future we won't need as much". Well, the future's here, and we use more now than we used to...

Unless people get serious about acting on depleting resources, then the only time we'll seriously lower our usage will be when things run out.

As for the climate change arguments -- I personally think that the overwhelming weight of evidence supports the idea that human activity is causing the planet to warm. I'm an astronomer, rather than climate scientist, so I'm not qualified to comment on the minutae of weather systems etc. (why I tend to lurk on here, rather than post) - but I do know a bit about the astronomical influences on the Earth's climate. There is strong evidence that the planet is warming. Many people argue that the Sun is the cause of this -- that's pretty much been debunked recently, though. Solar output has actually fallen in recent years, but the climate has held steady and warmed a bit. People argue that the Milankovic cycles could be the cause of the current warming -- but having worked studying them from a dynamical viewpoint, I can assure you they act on signifiacntly longer timescales than a century...

Regardless of whether you believe climate change is man-made, is part of a natural cycle, or that it's all poppycock, I tend to think the rational thing to do is work as though the worst-case scenario will happen. Everyone, on all sides of the debate, agrees that nothing is certain (though the weight of evidence looks to overwhelmingly lean one way, in my opinion). With that in mind, there are two routes we can follow (simplistically):

1) Do nothing - carry on as we are
2) Pump lots of money in to developing technologies that don't produce greenhouse gasses, renewable energy etc.

Now, if AGW turns out to have been wrong, and we follow route 1, we'll still eventually run into resources being depleted, and have to develop the new technologies at a higher cost, in a rush. If we follow route 2, we take a short term hit (investment costs money) - which might mean more expensive fuel prices, things like that, but we create new jobs, and promote R&D (which research has shown raises the GDP and standard of living of countries, in the long run) - which means we get the new technologies and renewable energy sources sooner, meaning that the resources that remain can be put to better use than simply being burnt to create energy.

So, in that scenario (as someone who would love to see science and R&D giving a funding boost!), I'd go with option 2.

Now, in the scenario where AGW turns out to be an accurate portrayal of reality, then option 1 leads us into a climate hellhole of DOOM, while option 2 spares us the worst ravages of what it could lead to.

So, again, to my mind, option two is the better route to follow.

Now, I admit I'm likely biased in my viewpoint (being someone who is convinced by the evidence for AGW), but I kind of think we'd be foolish to carry on as we are, regardless of whether AGW turns out to be the truth.

---------------------------

As a brief comment on weather -- I was up at the Anglo-Australian Telescope last week, and had the most amazing sunset I've ever seen... I took plenty of piccies -- here are a couple for you to enjoy :)





From what I understand if we can get through the next few hundred years of manmade GW, artificial warming may slow down our slide into the next natural iceage.
BTW, how does one measure the energy output of the sun?
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Cool pics...Things have changed...we have wind power now, testing more solar power, and ethanol.

My issue is that if we start messing with the climate and playing games to protect against what some feel is the worst case situation and in reality it turns out to be a natural cycle, we then have had a larger impact on the natural cycle instead of just letting nature take its course.


Sure -- but lets say that we did the extreme thing of cutting all emissions of any gas that could cause warming (including water vapour, methane, carbon dioxide etc.) out - then if it is a natural cycle, it'd carry on as it was (in a cyclical fashion) -- so we'd actually simply remove our effect on that cycle.

If it is a natural cycle whose amplitude is increased by our emissions, then it would revert to the normal amplitude and frequency (once things all sorted themselves out)

If it is purely a man-made effect, then things would slowly reset back to their natural levels.

Would be a good test of the theory, if nothing else :D

------------

One thing that just occured to me, and I'm sure people take into account, is to wonder what effect our other activities have on the changing climate. Ignoring the effect of man-made emissions - how does our modification of the surface of the planet change things on a global scale. For example, the removal of the rainforest in South America? Well, it changes rainfall patterns, afaik -- does that mean it changes the degree to which that part of the planet is covered by cloud, and hence the albedo of the planet? If we're making the planet less reflective (reducing the albedo) by the things we do - surely that will add to short term warming as less radiation is reflected, and more absorbed.

No idea what research, if any, is done to determine the contribution/effect of such behaviour on the overall climate -- I guess once the emission side is removed (which will one day happen, either by countries putting limits on things, or further in the future by fossil fuels running out), then that's another factor that might have to be considered...

Certainly, if temperatures rise as a result of man's actions, then the total area of the planet that is snow/ice covered would fall, would in turn will lower the albedo and add an extra warming effect. That in turn might push us towards a new stable equilibreum where global temperatures are stable, but at a higher level than currently.

Sorry for the random train of consciousness!
Quoting iceman100:
So what's this "Great Lakes Cyclone" all about?



Pressure already down to 980

Sisseton Municipal Airport
Lat: 45.67 Lon: -97 Elev: 1161
Last Update on Oct 25, 7:56 pm CDT

NA

55 °F
(13 °C)
Humidity: 100 %
Wind Speed: S 12 MPH
Barometer: 28.96" (980.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 55 °F (13 °C)
Wind Chill: 52 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: NA
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Quoting iceman100:
So what's this "Great Lakes Cyclone" all about?


Link
Quoting Grothar:


Great to see nature at its finest. I notice you use British spelling. May I ask where you are from?


From the UK, originally :) Grew up in Yorkshire, then studied in Durham and Oxford... spent three years in Switzerland (so hab ich ein bischen komisch English-Schweize-Deutsch ;)), then back to the UK :) Finally bounced over here to Aus with the girlfriend about a month ago :)

Hope my British spellings don't upset people -- don't want more blog drama than the fun AGW debate is providing ;)
Nasty looking system in the Midwest.

Quoting JohnEGalt:
Dr. Jeff mentions the season ranking in terms of number of named storms and hurricanes. I thought that the recognized measure of a storm or season was it's ACE calculation. This year 14th, I believe, in that ranking. He also mentions that the records go back to 1851. Is he suggesting that records of number of storms or hurricanes is in anyway a meaningful comparison before the RADAR and satelite era? I notice 2009 has one of the lowest ACE rankings on record. It's really disappointing to see that someone who is so well respected in storm prediction has accepted global warming as a religion.



If the season is ranked strictly in terms of ACE, 2010 is at the moment #20 out of the past 160. So far as using storm counts versus ACE, both have advantages and disadvantages, so both are perhaps equally valid as year-to-year metrics. At any rate, even if ACE were the only metric used, it wouldn't be any better than storm counts for the pre-satellite era, as it obviously wouldn't be calculated for storms that weren't detected with the technology at the time. (For the record: 2010 is nine storms ahead of where 2009 was on this date, so in terms of ACE or storm counts, 2009 was far below average.)

About your last sentence: have you considered the possibility that the global respect Dr. Masters has earned among the meteorology community extends well into his acceptance of the overwhelming science behind AGW?
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, still got an accent, I see! LOL How you doing tonight Orca? Too bad you are a few times zones away from me. You can have a few more hours on the blog than I.


Actually... from what has been going on today... that might not be a good thing :(
Quoting JFLORIDA:

I like this site as it is sourced with current research.
Although our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons moving through the carbon cycle each year, it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed. The rest remains in the atmosphere, and as a consequence, atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). (A natural change of 100ppm normally takes 5,000 to 20,000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has taken just 120 years).

(1 gigatonne is one billion tons. )
By contrast:

Volcanoes release more than 130 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year.
- practically nothing in comparison.


hcubed - its the rate of change that causes problems.



Also, I think the worst effects of change really are not going to be felt in ways expect. Species loss, acidification, species in the wrong places - increases in disease, famine etc are going to involve other factors not related to climate but to the complexities of a very populated world. I would actually be really surprised if it involved any of the imagery and situations Hollywood and the popular press has given us.

Its a difficult call.
Quoting Grothar:
Nasty looking system in the Midwest.



Man, I sure hope we get some rain off the tail end of that thing.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
My issue is that if we start messing with the climate and playing games to protect against what some feel is the worst case situation and in reality it turns out to be a natural cycle, we then have had a larger impact on the natural cycle instead of just letting nature take its course.

Too late for that; we've been both "messing with the climate" and not "letting nature take its course" for many decades now, and things aren't working out too well.
Why is it always global warming or global cooling.. why the heck can't we ever have global non-scary temperature change?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
From what I understand if we can get through the next few hundred years of manmade GW, artificial warming may slow down our slide into the next natural iceage.
BTW, how does one measure the energy output of the sun?


That's a good question :) It's far, far harder than it should be :S

A really fun experiment we used to get undergrads at the Open University to do allows you to roughly measure the flux from the Sun in your backyard. Basically, get a bit of paper, and put a small oil drop on it (making the paper translucent.

Then get a clear lightbulb of known wattage (say 100W), and a stand for the paper. Get the paper held up so that one side faces the Sun, then shine your lightbulb on the other side, looking from that side at the oil spot. Move the bulb back and forth until the spot blends in with the paper. At that point, the flux from the lightbulb on the paper balances that from the Sun on the other side -- measure the distance (bulb to paper), and you can work out the flux from the bulb on the paper (inverse square law). Since that balances the flux from the Sun on the other side -- voila! You've worked out the flux from the Sun :)

The problem is that the atmosphere absorbs loads of the Sun's radiation, which means that the value you get from that experiment is something like (if I remember right) about 1/3rd the true value, and really full of error.

The way to measure the Sun's output properly is to get up above the atmosphere (which, frankly, is just a nuiscence :P), and measure it from space. I believe satellites that image the Sun's surface regularly measure the flux from the Sun. The variations in that flux are actually pretty small (at most of order ~1% from strongest maximum to weakest minimum).
Anyway does anyone else think it was odd that last storm system to cross the country didn't have a prevalent front associated with it? Esp this time of year??
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Why is it always global warming or global cooling.. why the heck can't we ever have global non-disasterous temperature change?
I told ya Cane season must be over :)
Quoting Quadrantid:


From the UK, originally :) Grew up in Yorkshire, then studied in Durham and Oxford... spent three years in Switzerland (so hab ich ein bischen komisch English-Schweize-Deutsch ;)), then back to the UK :) Finally bounced over here to Aus with the girlfriend about a month ago :)

Hope my British spellings don't upset people -- don't want more blog drama than the fun AGW debate is providing ;)


I studied at the Universtiy of Zurich and at the University of Heidelberg. Also went to Cambridge as a visiting student at Downing Site (Anthropology) Never could get Züridütsch. LOL
Guys I just escaped from Ames, Iowa.... wicked winds this afternoon there. I literally flew down I-80 to escape when I found out the second strongest cyclone ever to hit the great lakes was coming. I mean 959mb thats freaking INSANE!

Look at this!


Quoting JFLORIDA:
Anyway does anyone else think it was odd that last storm system to cross the country didn't have a prevalent front associated with it? Esp this time of year??


afaik, it was an upper level disturbance, negatively tilted, interacting with gulf moisture.
Quoting MrstormX:
Guys I just escaped from Ames, Iowa.... wicked winds this afternoon there. I literally flew down I-80 to escape when I found out the second strongest cyclone ever to hit the great lakes was coming. I mean 959mb thats freaking INSANE!

Look at this!




You are right there. very odd.
Quoting doorman79:


Man, I sure hope we get some rain off the tail end of that thing.


Where are you doorman? Depends on how far that tail can wag.

Quoting JFLORIDA:


You are right there. very odd.
Was in Ames earlier before it got really bad, back home in Illinois now! Have pics to prove it....if im not believable.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


afaik, it was an upper level disturbance, negatively tilted, interacting with gulf moisture.
weird. I wouldn't expect it to take that kind of configuration.

959 millibars over the Great Lakes!!!!! Wow!!!!
Quoting MrstormX:
Guys I just escaped from Ames, Iowa.... wicked winds this afternoon there. I literally flew down I-80 to escape when I found out the second strongest cyclone ever to hit the great lakes was coming. I mean 959mb thats freaking INSANE!

Look at this!

aye the gales of november come early
You don't see this very OFTEN
Now that is scary!

LANDCANE!! - sorry j/k

Thats going to be a good watch though.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I like this site as it is sourced with current research.

Although our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons moving through the carbon cycle each year, it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed. The rest remains in the atmosphere, and as a consequence, atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). (A natural change of 100ppm normally takes 5,000 to 20,000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has taken just 120 years).





(1 gigatonne is one billion tons. )

By contrast:

Volcanoes release more than 130 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year.
- practically nothing in comparison.

hcubed - its the rate of change that causes problems.


So if plant life is found under a retreating glacier, does that mean the current retreat is "unprecedented"?

I know how much you like proof, so:

http://arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/viewFile/2162/2139

"Entombed Plant Communities Released by a Retreating Glacier at Central Ellesmere Island, Canada"
I had the Live Stream from Breckenridge Colorado on today. It snowed like crazy all day in the Rockies! Makes me want to hit the slopes! Check it out!Link
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
Depression Tropicale 01 2010-2011
4:00 AM Réunion October 26 2010
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01R (1000 hPa) located at 10.2S 86.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
20 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 10.9S 85.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.5S 84.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.9S 81.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 14.2S 77.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
========================

Vertical wind shear decreases slightly and deep convective activity has improved in the western semi circle over the recent past hours. Last satellite imagery shows a slow intensification, system has therefore probably reached tropical depression stage. Environmental conditions are expected to keep on improving within the next 48 hours as vertical wind shear decreases and poleward low level inflow increases. On and after 3 days, system would track over marginal cool water and is therefore expected to stop its intensification. The system is expected to track southwestward and then west southwestward.

Next Tropical Cyclone Advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 06:30 AM UTC..
Quoting Grothar:
You don't see this very OFTEN
iam afraid we will see more of these as we get in to late fall and winter this year may prove to be wicked on both ends killer snows to the north killer tornadoes to the south
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
aye the gales of november come early


What is "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
aye the gales of november come early


The wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, Gordon Lightfoot. Hey Keep.
I just can't believe this gale storm is this strong... entire North Central US under a High Wind Watch.
Quoting Orcasystems:


What is "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"
Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


What is "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"


Dang it Orca, ya beat me to it. Eh!
Or try this post:

http://www.livescience.com/environment/071030-tree-stumps.html

"...Melting glaciers in Western Canada are revealing tree stumps up to 7,000 years old where the region's rivers of ice have retreated to a historic minimum, a geologist said today..."
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TYPHOON CHABA (T1014)
9:00 AM JST October 26 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chaba (970 hPa) located at 19.5N 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 89knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.4N 128.3E - 75 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 23.8N 128.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 25.9N 129.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)

Quoting Orcasystems:


What is "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"
Some cruise ship that sank on Lake Michigan I think, '75 I believe I read. Some celebrity dies on it along with like 30 other ppl.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Dang it Orca, ya beat me to it. Eh!


its a good song... I wonder if KOG even knows it?
Quoting MrstormX:

Some cruise ship that sank on Lake Michigan I think, '75 I believe I read. Some celebrity dies on it along with like 30 other ppl.


Umm not really
Quoting MrstormX:
I just can't believe this gale storm is this strong... entire North Central US under a High Wind Watch.


Wasn't Gale Storm an old TV actress? My Little Margie or something?
Quoting Grothar:


I studied at the Universtiy of Zurich and at the University of Heidelberg. Also went to Cambridge as a visiting student at Downing Site (Anthropology) Never could get Züridütsch. LOL


I was in Bern, at the Uni there... had three solitary years being confused, then met a Swiss girl a week before moving back to the UK. Timing was never my strong point ;)
Quoting Grothar:


Wasn't Gale Storm an old TV actress? My Little Margie or something?


OMG, you are old

Josephine Owaissa Cottle (April 5, 1922 - June 27, 2009),[1] better known as Gale Storm, was an American actress and singer, who starred in two popular television programs of the 1950s, My Little Margie and The Gale Storm Show.
Or this post:

http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/blm/ak/aktest/frontiers.Par.83299.File.dat/blmfi77.pdf

"...Covering more than 2,250 square miles, the Bering Glacier is the largest glacier on the North American continent. As part of an interagency effort to identify key ecological sites for long-term environmental monitoring, scientists tagged huge stumps recently found at the glacier, evidence of an ancient forest floor under the glacier..."

Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm not really

lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


OMG, you are old

Josephine Owaissa Cottle (April 5, 1922 - June 27, 2009),[1] better known as Gale Storm, was an American actress and singer, who starred in two popular television programs of the 1950s, My Little Margie and The Gale Storm Show.


Don't forget "Oh Suzanna" with Zazu Pitts.
Quoting Orcasystems:


its a good song... I wonder if KOG even knows it?
ya sail lake shgoony ore carrier one of the largest by 710 pm main hatchway gave in and started to take water

below is by: Bob Campbell

At the time it was launched in 1958, the 729-foot long, 75-foot wide freighter S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald was the largest ship to ply the Great Lakes. On November 10, 1975 the Fitzgerald left Superior, Wisconsin carrying 26,000 tons of iron ore pellets, bound for Detroit. Though the day was bright, in her path lay a terrible storm with 60 MPH winds and waves in excess of 15 feet. As the storm built, her experienced Captain Ernest McSorley bore north across Lake Superior, seeking the relative shelter of the Canadian shore and Whitefish Bay.

Luck was not with the ship or the crew. The radar system and its backup failed. The storm took out the power to Whitefish Point's light and radio beacon. Though the light was brought back on line, the radio beacon was not. The Arthur M. Anderson, another ship within 10 miles of the Fitzgerald, received reports that the ship was listing to the starboard and of other structural damages to the vessel. At 7:10 PM, Captain McSorley delivered what was to be his final message:
"We're holding our own."
The Arthur M. Anderson lost the Fitzgerald's image on its radar screensat 7:25 PM. The ship and crew of 29 men, sank to the bottom of Lake Superior
Quoting Orcasystems:


its a good song... I wonder if KOG even knows it?


K continually impresses with his depth. I'll say, Aye.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


K continually impresses with his depth. I'll say, Aye.


Oh yeah.. KOG is really deep...
Since my last report, he has reached rock bottom and has started to dig
Quoting Orcasystems:


OMG, you are old

Josephine Owaissa Cottle (April 5, 1922 - June 27, 2009),[1] better known as Gale Storm, was an American actress and singer, who starred in two popular television programs of the 1950s, My Little Margie and The Gale Storm Show.
Orca, did you check out the link I posted? It has authentic footage and Harry Reasoner announcing the lost ship.
Quoting JupiterFL:


What?
if you would like me to clarify please WU mail me
Quoting Grothar:


Don't forget "Oh Suzanna" with Zazu Pitts.


I am no where near that old... I had to look her up on Google.
Quoting Quadrantid:


I was in Bern, at the Uni there... had three solitary years being confused, then met a Swiss girl a week before moving back to the UK. Timing was never my strong point ;)


Tja, I hear ya! No offense, but when I first visited Bern, I thought they were speaking Chinese.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


K continually impresses with his depth. I'll say, Aye.


I think I should leave the floor to the aforementioned. LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am no where near that old... I had to look her up on Google.


Sure!! HA
686. xcool


oh woww
Good evening Grothar. You're not giving the attendants a rough time, are you?
I am getting really tired of this spiny thing over us.

Quoting Grothar:


Sure!! HA


When I think of all the people I respect the most, you're right there, serving them drinks
Quoting hydrus:
Orca, did you check out the link I posted? It has authentic footage and Harry Reasoner announcing the lost ship.


Hey hydrus! Amazing clip. The don't make newsmen like that anymore. Where did you find that?
Quoting Orcasystems:


When I think of all the people I respect the most, you're right there, serving them drinks


Quoting Scott Adams now, are we? Don't mess with old Grothar, he knows all.
Quoting Grothar:


Quoting Scott Adams now, are we? Don't mess with old Grothar, he knows all.


I found a whole page of them... some really good.. some not so much :)
Quoting Grothar:


Hey hydrus! Amazing clip. The don't make newsmen like that anymore. Where did you find that?
Yahoo Search Engine...I passed over that wreck in 1985....It was sad. .And a bit eerie.
50-65 mph winds expected Chicago Area....

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Good evening Grothar. You're not giving the attendants a rought ime, are you?


Naw, I think they are on a break of folding diapers. Can't be sure of anything at this hour. How you doing PS. It was a nice day in Ft. Lauderdale today. How was PSL?
Good Evening, all.

A discussion on Man Made Global Warming?
On THIS Blog?
Is this because Richard kicked the bucket, or what?

I have been away for 2 whole days, so I am woefully inadequate...

here are lyrics to the song fish

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
of the big lake they called "Gitche Gumee."
The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
when the skies of November turn gloomy.
With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more
than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty,
that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
when the "Gales of November" came early.

The ship was the pride of the American side
coming back from some mill in Wisconsin.
As the big freighters go, it was bigger than most
with a crew and good captain well seasoned,
concluding some terms with a couple of steel firms
when they left fully loaded for Cleveland.
And later that night when the ship's bell rang,
could it be the north wind they'd been feelin'?

The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
and a wave broke over the railing.
And ev'ry man knew, as the captain did too
'twas the witch of November come stealin'.
The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait
when the Gales of November came slashin'.
When afternoon came it was freezin' rain
in the face of a hurricane west wind.

When suppertime came the old cook came on deck sayin'.
"Fellas, it's too rough t'feed ya."
At seven P.M. a main hatchway caved in; he said,

"Fellas, it's bin good t'know ya!"
The captain wired in he had water comin' in
and the good ship and crew was in peril.
And later that night when 'is lights went outta sight
came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.

Does any one know where the love of God goes
when the waves turn the minutes to hours?
The searchers all say they'd have made Whitefish Bay
if they'd put fifteen more miles behind 'er.
They might have split up or they might have capsized;
they may have broke deep and took water.
And all that remains is the faces and the names
of the wives and the sons and the daughters.

Lake Huron rolls, Superior sings
in the rooms of her ice-water mansion.
Old Michigan steams like a young man's dreams;
the islands and bays are for sportsmen.
And farther below Lake Ontario
takes in what Lake Erie can send her,
And the iron boats go as the mariners all know
with the Gales of November remembered.

In a musty old hall in Detroit they prayed,
in the "Maritime Sailors' Cathedral."
The church bell chimed 'til it rang twenty-nine times
for each man on the Edmund Fitzgerald.
The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
of the big lake they call "Gitche Gumee."
"Superior," they said, "never gives up her dead
when the gales of November come early!"
I'll have an update on Tuesday. I'm not sure when that update will be, as I am catching a flight to Miami in the morning. I've been invited to spend the week at the National Hurricane Center as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll be writing a post later this week about what a shift is like at the Hurricane Center. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research DivisiWon, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.

WOW great stuff coming up in Doc's Blog.
N thanks for posting that song Keeper.
I can hear it sung while reading the words.
Was that Gordon Lightfoot who sang it?
697. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:24 AM GMT on October 26, 2010

Believe it or not, I know all of the words...

Couple cases of beer, Drunk sailors... couple of them with guitars... its a sorry sight.. but a real hoot to be at.

We used to do it quite often
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening, all.

A discussion on Man Made Global Warming?
On THIS Blog?
Is this because Richard kicked the bucket, or what?

I have been away for 2 whole days, so I am woefully inadequate...

The GW thing started earlier today... If you get the chance, check out Levi,s Tropical Tidbit. There may be a tropical system near you next week.
Quoting Grothar:


Tja, I hear ya! No offense, but when I first visited Bern, I thought they were speaking Chinese.


Aye -- was very confusing for a fair while :) My best friend in the UK is a linguist -- one of these amazing people who are fluent in multiple languages (a bit like yourself, from what you've said earlier :P). Anyways, we occasionally natter in german, to keep my ear in, and she finds my mix of Bern-Deutsch, Hauch-Deutsch and English secondary school German highly amusing :) It gets the message across, but it's far from being grammatically correct :D
Chaba in W Pac



Quoting pottery:
Good Evening, all.

A discussion on Man Made Global Warming?
On THIS Blog?
Is this because Richard kicked the bucket, or what?

I have been away for 2 whole days, so I am woefully inadequate...



Aw, don't be modest pot, you don't have to be away 2 whole days to be woefully inadequate. LOL
Quoting hydrus:
The GW thing started earlier today... If you get the chance, check out Levi,s Tropical Tidbit. There may be a tropical system near you next week.

Thanks, I'll check now...
Quoting hydrus:
Yahoo Search Engine...I passed over that wreck in 1985....It was sad. .And a bit eerie.


I was on the HMCS Yukon, when we did a bottom tracer run over the HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales, that was eerie.

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
311 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

VALID 00Z TUE OCT 26 2010 - 00Z THU OCT 28 2010

A BEASTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT OVER THE
UPPER-MIDWEST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRENCHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET IS RACING ACROSS THE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...QUICKLY
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BY VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONTINUING AT THIS SCREAMING
PACE IT WILL REACH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
INCREDIBLY STRONG WINDS THAT ARE LIKELY. SOME AREAS OF THE
UPPER-MIDWEST MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TOPPING 40 MPH...WHILE
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP THE 25 MPH MARK.

SNOW IS ON TAP FOR THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BARING DOWN ON THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. A SECOND SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA IS GOING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WRAPPED AROUND THE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE COLD CANADIAN AIR SURGING
SOUTHWARD...BRINGING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME AREAS OF
NORTH DAKOTA WILL RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH
GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT OF TIME BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS TO STICK.


OUT WEST...A DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALONG
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...ARE STIRRING UP RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WHILE SNOW
IS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WHEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE RAIN IS PUSHED
EASTWARD BY THE APPROACHING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM.

COLLINS


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Quoting Grothar:


Naw, I think they are on a break of folding diapers. Can't be sure of anything at this hour. How you doing PS. It was a nice day in Ft. Lauderdale today. How was PSL?


Good, my friend. Warmer and quite a bit more humid. First reminder of where we live, since Nicole. I guess we have to look at that as an early Christmas present. Not our usual stuff.
Quoting hydrus:
WOW!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was on the HMCS Yukon, when we did a bottom tracer run over the HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales, that was eerie.
I would think so....We passed over the Andrea Doria that same year...once again..Very eerie.
Quoting Grothar:


Aw, don't be modest pot, you don't have to be away 2 whole days to be woefully inadequate. LOL

AAAKKK!
In this room filled with Linguists, maybe I used the wrong word.
I meant woefully ineffectual. I think.

How are you Older Gentlemen, this evening?
Talking of Bern -- one of the best things about living there, in the hot weather, was being able to do this :D



Got to love the accent :)
Quoting Quadrantid:


Aye -- was very confusing for a fair while :) My best friend in the UK is a linguist -- one of these amazing people who are fluent in multiple languages (a bit like yourself, from what you've said earlier :P). Anyways, we occasionally natter in german, to keep my ear in, and she finds my mix of Bern-Deutsch, Hauch-Deutsch and English secondary school German highly amusing :) It gets the message across, but it's far from being grammatically correct :D


Born in Long Island,NY. But lived in Norway, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Greenland. Studied in England for a while then pretty much back in Florida. It is good you maintain your languages. It can serve you well.
Good evening to all my non-husbands.....

:)
...MO...NRN AR...IA...CNTRL AND WRN IL...SRN WI...
RAPID CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AS A POWERFUL UPPER
TROUGH AND JET DEVELOP EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER
MO/MID MS VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE PRIMARY UPPER VORTICITY CENTER OVER WRN
NEB/KS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM SERN NEB INTO NWRN OK. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
ACROSS AR AND ERN OK. SIMILAR BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH SRN IA/CNTRL IL OWING TO INTENSIFYING 50-70 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. COOLING ALOFT AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL WORK TO PRODUCE
MARGINAL...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING
THE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-06Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN IA
INTO WRN/W-CNTRL MO...THEN MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER
AND IL OVERNIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL MATERIALIZE AS THE
SYSTEM MATURES WHICH WILL LEND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT TO WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...WIND PROFILES WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS/QLCS STRUCTURES WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 10/26/2010

Quoting pottery:

AAAKKK!
In this room filled with Linguists, maybe I used the wrong word.
I meant woefully ineffectual. I think.

How are you Older Gentlemen, this evening?


Pottery's got a full 6-pack, but lacks the plastic thingy to hold it all together
Quoting Grothar:


Born in Long Island,NY. But lived in Norway, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Greenland. Studied in England for a while then pretty much back in Florida. It is good you maintain your languages. It can serve you well.


That's the plan. Once we're fully settled here, I'm probably going to pick up a German class, try to keep my hand in. My girlfriend is desperate to learn a language, and torn between Italian and German... I'm trying to persuade her that German is the way to go so I have someone to practice with ;) Although given we're over here in the pacific, maybe a south-east asian language might be more use...
Quoting NRAamy:
Good evening to all my non-husbands.....

:)

And here I was, thinking I was the Only One.
sigh....

(but it's a relief, knowing that someone else shares The Pressure)
heheheheh

How are you, Amy?
Quoting Quadrantid:


That's the plan. Once we're fully settled here, I'm probably going to pick up a German class, try to keep my hand in. My girlfriend is desperate to learn a language, and torn between Italian and German... I'm trying to persuade her that German is the way to go so I have someone to practice with ;) Although given we're over here in the pacific, maybe a south-east asian language might be more use...


Might I recommend Mandarin, thats where the money is going to be.

Quoting Quadrantid:
Talking of Bern -- one of the best things about living there, in the hot weather, was being able to do this :D



Got to love the accent :)


Nicht ein Wort! Thanks, brought back some memories. Hadn't heard that in a very long time. I see they are using more English words in their vocabulary now, as well. I have got to save this.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery's got a full 6-pack, but lacks the plastic thingy to hold it all together

Re ported.
(to my Wife. Start running...)
Quoting pottery:

AAAKKK!
In this room filled with Linguists, maybe I used the wrong word.
I meant woefully ineffectual. I think.

How are you Older Gentlemen, this evening?


Good evening Pottery. Mayhap, I'll soon be included in the group. Glad, for the company.
German sounds very natural to the English ear.
Spotty rain clouds in ECFL today.
First I've seen in a long time.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Good god.. don't count me in the group.. been married 31 years... and one of you is enough.


My sides, my sides! I told you I am too old to roll on the floor. Please don't throw out those lines when I am on here.
727. P451
Quoting NRAamy:
Good evening to all my non-husbands.....

:)



LOL

Hi, Amy.


Awaiting a line of strong storms in eastern PA to push through me here in NJ.

Wednesday has 80 in the forecast. Water still in the 60s.

Thinking BEACH.

Still got snow in the forecast for Halloween. :)

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Its time we corrected that. This is a technical science based site, and the community needs to be maintained as such.

Send the suggestion off to management.
Perhaps next year we can eliminate even the words that clutter things up. Let's just have posts filled with raw data.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good evening Pottery. Mayhap, I'll soon be included in the group. Glad, for the company.

You WANT to hang out with Grothar and Orca and them???
What ever for?
They are Furreners, for one thing...
Quoting Chicklit:
German sounds very natural to the English ear.


Sorry, Chicklit, but that wasn't German, it was Bernese, a dialect of Switzerland. Only they understand it. A German would just stare and shake their heads. LOL I think I got about 10 words, and I lived there.
Quoting pottery:

Re ported.
(to my Wife. Start running...)


Won't have to run fast... my guess is she is rolling on the floor laughing ;)
Quoting pottery:

You WANT to hang out with Grothar and Orca and them???
What ever for?
They are Furreners, for one thing...


After a couple of hundred years, how choosy can one be?
Quoting Chicklit:
German sounds very natural to the English ear.

Really?
Not to mine.
And we were English here, once.
Still speak it too.
Quoting pottery:

You WANT to hang out with Grothar and Orca and them???
What ever for?
They are Furreners, for one thing...


YO! I was born on Long Island, NY. See, you're not that ineffectual. (Where were you for two days anyway? Believe it not you were missed)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Won't have to run fast... my guess is she is rolling on the floor laughing ;)

Are you Psychic?
done.
Quoting pottery:

AAAKKK!
In this room filled with Linguists, maybe I used the wrong word.
I meant woefully ineffectual. I think.

How are you Older Gentlemen, this evening?


Greetings and salutations Lord Pottery!
Must you always refer to me as an Older Gentleman? I must admit that I do appreciate the term Gentleman, I hear it so seldom these days. By the way, I don't think of you as woeful. Ineffectual? I think there is medicine for that now. :)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


After a couple of hundred years, how choosy can one be?

heheheheh
Quoting Orcasystems:


Might I recommend Mandarin, thats where the money is going to be.



Could well be worth a look... I suspect learning a language based on a totally different system like that will be obscenely hard work -- but that's part of the fun, no? :D That said, we're both scientists, and English seems fairly firmly entrenched (at the moment) as the lingua franca -- so it's more for pleasure and social reasons than work reasons...

Glad you enjoyed the Youtube clip :) Amazing part is that, being a TV presenter, that guy is actually easier to understand/clearer than most of the friends I have out there :) That said, I don't really get much more than the gist of what he's saying -- sadly the swiss are so keen to practice their English that I spent most of my time being shamefully British, and sticking to my mother tongue... won't make that mistake again, if I live in a non-English speaking country :D
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, Chicklit, but that wasn't German, it was Bernese, a dialect of Switzerland. Only they understand it. A German would just stare and shake their heads. LOL I think I got about 10 words, and I lived there.


You have just proven your intelligence... when I tell people that the Swiss actually have a dialect... I get told I am nuts.

I am Swiss, and my Grandma used to speak it, along with German/Italian/French. I on the other hand can only speak English.
quite the severe weather setup forming right now over Missouri and Illinois, Tornado watches will soon be out.

Quoting pottery:

Are you Psychic?


Speaking of psychic, has anyone seen PsychicMaria. I have a funny feeling she may be coming on soon. LOL Got these strange vibes. OK bloggers, I gave you a line. Go with it.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Might I recommend Mandarin, thats where the money is going to be.


Been studying Mandarin (the lazy though quite acceptable pinyin way) for the last two months for future job purposes. Far easier to learn than I thought it might be...though I feel badly that I'll miss out on the, er, fun of reading/writing hanzi, so I might dig into that for fun at some point. Sometime....
Would someone please email me why DestinJeff is in jail for 30 days?
Quoting Grothar:


YO! I was born on Long Island, NY. See, you're not that ineffectual. (Where were you for two days anyway? Believe it not you were missed)

Ah, That's so sweet.
Was in the Forest, in a little house up a mountain with a river running through the yard.
Noboddy around, for miles.
I have to admit, in the interest of pure truth, that I did not really think about you guys at all.
A shame, but there it is...

(but HAD I thought about you, it would have been Pleasant Thoughts!)
746. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...ERN IA...SWRN WI...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 260236Z - 260300Z

RAPID RECOVERING WARM SECTOR WILL SOON DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC
DATA SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY
STEEPENING ACROSS ERN KS WHERE SFC-3KM VALUES ARE NOW ON THE ORDER
OF 7 C/KM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...IS AIDING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH A POCKET OF CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
SPREADING/DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR INTO SERN KS/SWRN
MO. IT APPEARS THE RECOVERY PROCESS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SEVERE FRONTAL CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS THE MN BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS FOCUSES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...EXTREME WIND SHEAR AND 12HR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
APPROACHING 210M WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR A NARROW BAND
OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.

..DARROW.. 10/26/2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


You have just proven your intelligence... when I tell people that the Swiss actually have a dialect... I get told I am nuts.

I am Swiss, and my Grandma used to speak it, along with German/Italian/French. I on the other hand can only speak English.


They have many, many dialects in Switzerland. Each Canton has their own dialect, they have perhaps 10 or more German dialects and many French and Italian dialects. Also a mixed languange called Romansch, which is a combination of all of them. Very confusing.
Quoting Grothar:


They have many, many dialects in Switzerland. Each Canton has their own dialect, they have perhaps 10 or more German dialects and many French and Italian dialects. Also a mixed languange called Romansch, which is a combination of all of them. Very confusing.


Dude.........the picture? What's up with that?
Grothar was born on Long Island.... That explains so much.....
Quoting Chicklit:
Would someone please email me why DestinJeff is in jail for 30 days?


It's as much a mystery to me, as it is to you. I wish I could give you a good answer.

Quoting beell:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...ERN IA...SWRN WI...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 260236Z - 260300Z

RAPID RECOVERING WARM SECTOR WILL SOON DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC
DATA SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY
STEEPENING ACROSS ERN KS WHERE SFC-3KM VALUES ARE NOW ON THE ORDER
OF 7 C/KM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...IS AIDING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH A POCKET OF CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
SPREADING/DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR INTO SERN KS/SWRN
MO. IT APPEARS THE RECOVERY PROCESS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SEVERE FRONTAL CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS THE MN BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS FOCUSES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...EXTREME WIND SHEAR AND 12HR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
APPROACHING 210M WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR A NARROW BAND
OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.

..DARROW.. 10/26/2010
Yikes
Quoting RTLSNK:


Greetings and salutations Lord Pottery!
Must you always refer to me as an Older Gentleman? I must admit that I do appreciate the term Gentleman, I hear it so seldom these days. By the way, I don't think of you as woeful. Ineffectual? I think there is medicine for that now. :)


YO Snake! Where you been hiding? Bad thing about that medicine is that one must take it every four hours.
Quoting caneswatch:


Dude.........the picture? What's up with that?


What picture?
Quoting RTLSNK:


Greetings and salutations Lord Pottery!
Must you always refer to me as an Older Gentleman? I must admit that I do appreciate the term Gentleman, I hear it so seldom these days. By the way, I don't think of you as woeful. Ineffectual? I think there is medicine for that now. :)

Why, Hello, Snakeymon.
Thank you for your continued interest in my Effectiveness.
You are a true Gentleman, indeed.
The "older" part, is open for debate, since you have somehow managed to create some kind of Denialism Shroud to wrap yourself in.
You gonna have to face it, you know.
Orca did.
Quoting Grothar:


What picture?


Your picture! lol
Quoting caneswatch:


Your picture! lol


Are you referring to my new avatar, which no one else noticed?
Dr. M: "I'll have an update on Tuesday. I'm not sure when that update will be, as I am catching a flight to Miami in the morning. I've been invited to spend the week at the National Hurricane Center as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll be writing a post later this week about what a shift is like at the Hurricane Center. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season."
Kewl.

And those pending post sound a lot more interesting than, umm, ahh, none at all. (What did you think i was going to say?)
Quoting Grothar:


YO Snake! Where you been hiding? Bad thing about that medicine is that one must take it every four hours.

How do you know that, you Wascally Wabbit...?
Quoting pottery:

Why, Hello, Snakeymon.
Thank you for your continued interest in my Effectiveness.
You are a true Gentleman, indeed.
The "older" part, is open for debate, since you have somehow managed to create some kind of Denialism Shroud to wrap yourself in.
You gonna have to face it, you know.
Orca did.


Yes, I did... I didn't want to.... I wanted to imagine that I could hold my own with the guys my own age... then I found out the only ones I could outwit were you older guys.

Conditions are deteriorating rapidly across the plains, its scary to think I was in the Tornado warning area but a few hours ago! Glad im out of Iowa and central Illinois.
Well, looks like the end of Richard....


TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

RICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY. A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

Just think; if a system like this had crossed into this area of the BoC 4 or 6 weeks ago, we would likely have seen a major storm heading for W Texas.....

And what's THIS???

Tornado Watch
Statement as of 10:04 PM CDT on October 25, 2010



The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 719 in
effect until 6 am CDT Tuesday for the following areas

In Illinois this watch includes 11 counties

In southwest Illinois

Calhoun IL Greene IL Jersey IL
Macoupin IL Madison IL Monroe IL
Randolph IL St. Clair IL

In west central Illinois

Adams IL Brown IL Pike IL

In Missouri this watch includes 28 counties

In central Missouri

Audrain MO Boone MO Callaway MO
Cole MO Moniteau MO Osage MO

In east central Missouri

Crawford MO Franklin MO Gasconade MO
Jefferson MO Lincoln MO Montgomery MO
St. Charles MO St. Louis MO Warren MO
Washington MO

In northeast Missouri

Knox MO Lewis MO Marion MO
Monroe MO Pike MO Ralls MO
Shelby MO

In southeast Missouri

Iron MO Madison MO Reynolds MO
St. Francois MO Ste. Genevieve MO

In Missouri this watch includes 1 independent city

In east central Missouri

St. Louis city MO

This includes the cities of... Belleville... Bowling Green...
Chester... Columbia... Edwardsville... Farmington... Hannibal...
Jefferson City... Mexico... Quincy... St Charles...
St Louis and Union.





Quoting pottery:

How do you know that, you Wascally Wabbit...?


Ever hear of the open prescription plan?
Hmmm.... seems to show up fairly nicely on OPCs surface map....

Quoting Grothar:


Are you referring to my new avatar, which no one else noticed?


Yes, I already miss your orange and yellow avatar, now i'll never know you're on. lol
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dr. M: "I'll have an update on Tuesday. I'm not sure when that update will be, as I am catching a flight to Miami in the morning. I've been invited to spend the week at the National Hurricane Center as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll be writing a post later this week about what a shift is like at the Hurricane Center. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season."
Kewl.

And those pending post sound a lot more interesting than, umm, ahh, none at all. (What did you think i was going to say?)

LOL
000
WTNT44 KNHC 260242
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

RICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY. A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 18.4N 91.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 92.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.3N 93.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 94.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Quoting NRAamy:
Grothar was born on Long Island.... That explains so much.....


Why Miss Amy, I do declare! Explains What?????
It's not our AOI, but a different low. Hmmm....

Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, I did... I didn't want to.... I wanted to imagine that I could hold my own with the guys my own age... then I found out the only ones I could outwit were you older guys.


FOUL!!!!!
Quoting Chicklit:
Would someone please email me why DestinJeff is in jail for 30 days?


WHAT? - guess they don't speak English in What ...
Why I like you so much.....

:)
Possible Next System, Shary



90L.....not to bad imo, decent shot at developing again

All hell breaking loose across the plains though.....

Quoting Grothar:


YO Snake! Where you been hiding? Bad thing about that medicine is that one must take it every four hours.


Oh, that medicine, I see my comment was slightly misinterpreted. I assumed at Pottery's advanced age he was referring to his intestinal system. :)

Took a week off to ride the Harley over the "Tail of the Dragon", Deals Gap, Tenn. Great motorcycle mountain, 318 switch-backs in 11 miles. Not for the faint of heart. Not exactly like riding in the Northern Alps, but not bad for an American mountain ride!!!
Quoting NRAamy:
Why I like you so much.....

:)


Are you a transplant as well? I would have thought more New Jersey than NY.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Possible Shary....


I wish you would not do that.
Now I have to go and check that out....
LOL
Snake!!!!!

:)
Quoting Grothar:


Are you a transplant as well? I would have thought more New Jersey than NY.


Dude, you have WU-mail.
Quoting MrstormX:
90L.....not to bad imo, decent shot at developing again

All hell breaking loose across the plains though.....


Quoting RTLSNK:


Oh, that medicine, I see my comment was slightly misinterpreted. I assumed at Pottery's advanced age he was referring to his intestinal system. :)

Took a week off to ride the Harley over the "Tail of the Dragon", Deals Gap, Tenn. Great motorcycle mountain, 318 switch-backs in 11 miles. Not for the faint of heart. Not exactly like riding in the Northern Alps, but not bad for an American mountain ride!!!


More power to you, guy. I drive to Walgreens on the corner and I have to take a nap. Don't know how you do it.
Groth.... In a previous life I was definitely a Jersey Girl.... I got the big hair for it for sure...and the attitude to match....

;)

But I LOVE Long Island....just beautiful out there....

Quoting RTLSNK:


Oh, that medicine, I see my comment was slightly misinterpreted. I assumed at Pottery's advanced age he was referring to his intestinal system. :)

Took a week off to ride the Harley over the "Tail of the Dragon", Deals Gap, Tenn. Great motorcycle mountain, 318 switch-backs in 11 miles. Not for the faint of heart. Not exactly like riding in the Northern Alps, but not bad for an American mountain ride!!!

Yeah Yeah..
We hear you.

Sounds like a Fantastic trip.
Bring the Harley, and do the Arima to Blanchisseuse road, over the Cerro del Aripo mountain here.
Noboddy has ever been able to count the switchbacks.
They keep falling off the mountain, looking at the views....
They are in for a rough ride up there tonight and tomorrow.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, I did... I didn't want to.... I wanted to imagine that I could hold my own with the guys my own age... then I found out the only ones I could outwit were you older guys.



Well, you've outlasted me. Darn it. G'night.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Too late for that; we've been both "messing with the climate" and not "letting nature take its course" for many decades now, and things aren't working out too well.
Why so conservative? Don't you mean centuries, nay millenia?

I think there is a lot of sense the Quad-poster's comments about man's influence at least potentially extending beyond use of fossil fuels and injection of specific gasses into the air. He mentioned SA forests; what about the MASSIVE clearing of European, North American, and East Asian forests? What about diversions and damming of rivers? Might not these apparently non-wx related human activities inadvertently be impacting the climate? It seems logical to me that it might.
Quoting NRAamy:
Snake!!!!!

:)


(((((((AMY)))))))
After Richard's death, just to begin again the curiosity in some system out there.... Richard's funeral has made the blog quite shaky.... Due to that maybe the blog admin. had to resign this afternoon....
Quoting pottery:

I wish you would not do that.
Now I have to go and check that out....
LOL
Quoting NRAamy:
Groth.... In a previous life I was definitely a Jersey Girl.... I got the big hair for it for sure...and the attitude to match....

;)

But I LOVE Long Island....just beautiful out there....



I was from Lloyd Harbor in Huntington. Where were you on Long Island. Most people are unaware of how great it really is. They imagine big building and rude people. Actually there are no big buildings. LOL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why so conservative? Don't you mean centuries, nay millenia?

I think there is a lot of sense the Quad-poster's comments about man's influence at least potentially extending beyond use of fossil fuels and injection of specific gasses into the air. He mentioned SA forests; what about the MASSIVE clearing of European, North American, and East Asian forests? What about diversions and damming of rivers? Might not these apparently non-wx related human activities inadvertently be impacting the climate? It seems logical to me that it might.

Absolutely!
No invest assigned yet to this.... What number would it be??? 90L is north of this wave....

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
Depression Tropicale 01 2010-2011
4:00 AM Réunion October 26 2010
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01R (1000 hPa) located at 10.2S 86.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
20 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 10.9S 85.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.5S 84.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.9S 81.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 14.2S 77.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
========================

Vertical wind shear decreases slightly and deep convective activity has improved in the western semi circle over the recent past hours. Last satellite imagery shows a slow intensification, system has therefore probably reached tropical depression stage. Environmental conditions are expected to keep on improving within the next 48 hours as vertical wind shear decreases and poleward low level inflow increases. On and after 3 days, system would track over marginal cool water and is therefore expected to stop its intensification. The system is expected to track southwestward and then west southwestward.

Next Tropical Cyclone Advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 06:30 AM UTC..
Is that Mauritius???? Isn't is... rather early for them to be posting a TD? Hmmm.... wonder if our hectic season in the ATL is going to translate to a hectic SIndian season 2010-2011??
Quoting sunlinepr:
After Richard's death, just to begin again the curiosity in some system out there.... Richard's funeral has made the blog quite shaky.... I heard that the blog admin. resigned this afternoon....

REALLY????
Good for them!
Probably could'nt face the prospects of several months of GW Quarrels.
heheheheh
See you all tomorrow if I am still alive!

p.s. not trying to scare people, as Grothar probably thinks lol
Quoting Grothar:


More power to you, guy. I drive to Walgreens on the corner and I have to take a nap. Don't know how you do it.


Simple formula, four hours of heavy yard work or weight lifting or exercise or treadmill everyday combined with an interesting diet invented by a heart doctor years ago called "if it tastes good, spit it out". LOL
evening everyone,my best friend lost his younger brother to a accidental drug overdose this morning,21yrs old,if ya'll can keep him in your prayers,its appreciated. and very much needed.....
Quoting RTLSNK:


Simple formula, four hours of heavy yard work or weight lifting or exercise or treadmill everyday combined with an interesting diet invented by a heart doctor years ago called "if it tastes good, spit it out". LOL


So what you're saying is the Pizzas and Klondike bars are bad for me?
Jefferson Port Station? Does that sound right?

Quoting stillwaiting:
evening everyone,my best friend lost his younger brother to a accidental drug overdose this morning,21yrs old,if ya'll can keep him in your prayers,its appreciated. and very much needed.....
Of course
Quoting Grothar:


I was from Lloyd Harbor in Huntington. Where were you on Long Island. Most people are unaware of how great it really is. They imagine big building and rude people. Actually there are no big buildings. LOL

Great avatar, Gro.
Saw the Long Ship in the museum in Oslo as a youngster, and recently toured the salvaged warship in Stokholm (cant remember the name of the Ship).
Wonderful thing, that the King ordered another deck of guns on, so it rolled over on its way to terrorise the Danes. The Architects were subsequently punished...
I've noticed something strange about how people describe hurricanes. In today's entry Dr M describes Richard as a small hurricane. It seems to me that hurricanes are either large or small but rarely called average in size. Shouldn't there be more average sized storms? Were any hurricanes average in size this year?
TropicalDepressionRichard's heading turned northward to (1.4degrees north of) NorthWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~9.7mph(~15.6km/h)
H.Richard
25Oct 03amGMT - 17.3n88.6w - 90mph (~144.8km/h) - - 981mb - NHC.Adv.#17
25Oct 06amGMT - 17.5n89.3w - 65knots(~120.4km/h) -- 987mb - ATCF
TS.Richard
25Oct 09amGMT - 17.6n89.6w - 65mph (~104.6km/h) - - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#18
25Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n90.0w - 40knots(~74.1km/h) -- 1005mb - ATCF
TD.Richard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 17.8n90.2w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19
25Oct 06pmGMT - 18.0n90.8w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) -- 1005mb - ATCF
25Oct 09pmGMT - 18.1n91.2w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) - - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#20
26Oct 12amGMT - 18.1n91.3w - 25knots . (46.4km/h) -- 1003mb - ATCF
26Oct 03amGMT - 18.4n91.6w - 30mph (~48.3km/h) - - 1004mb - NHC.Adv.#21

Copy&paste 17.3n88.6w, 17.5n89.3w, 17.6n89.6w, 17.7n90.0w, 17.8n90.2w-18.0n90.8w, 18.0n90.8w-18.1n91.2w, 18.1n91.2w-18.1n91.3w, 18.1n91.3w-18.4n91.6w, tam, rtb, 18.4n91.6w-18.65n91.85w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings&distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
TD.Richard will be launching at ~5:30amGMT from Puerto Pescaro of Ciudad del Carmen,Mexico
into the Bay of Campeche after cruising across Laguna de Terminos.

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
Quoting stillwaiting:
evening everyone,my best friend lost his younger brother to a accidental drug overdose this morning,21yrs old,if ya'll can keep him in your prayers,its appreciated. and very much needed.....

Will do that.
Very sorry.
Quoting RTLSNK:


Simple formula, four hours of heavy yard work or weight lifting or exercise or treadmill everyday combined with an interesting diet invented by a heart doctor years ago called "if it tastes good, spit it out". LOL

Lordy, Snake.
You going to outlive Grothar....
Quoting pottery:

Yeah Yeah..
We hear you.

Sounds like a Fantastic trip.
Bring the Harley, and do the Arima to Blanchisseuse road, over the Cerro del Aripo mountain here.
Noboddy has ever been able to count the switchbacks.
They keep falling off the mountain, looking at the views....


That is always a problem for bikers, your bike goes where you look. Coming down a mountain in the Northern Italian Alps I glanced for just a second at the valley below and almost met a tour bus head on coming up the road. A lesson I always remember. :(
Quoting pottery:

Great avatar, Gro.
Saw the Long Ship in the museum in Oslo as a youngster, and recently toured the salvaged warship in Stokholm (cant remember the name of the Ship).
Wonderful thing, that the King ordered another deck of guns on, so it rolled over on its way to terrorise the Danes. The Architects were subsequently punished...


The Vasa ship? Amazing isn't it?
UPPER MID WEST GRT LAKES SECTOR
Quoting Grothar:


The Vasa ship? Amazing isn't it?

VASA!!
Yeah. Wonderful.
Was there in 08.
Quoting stillwaiting:
evening everyone,my best friend lost his younger brother to a accidental drug overdose this morning,21yrs old,if ya'll can keep him in your prayers,its appreciated. and very much needed.....

Give him all the support you can.. sometimes it's just a matter of hearing and letting him open his heart to you as a friend....
Quoting pottery:

Great avatar, Gro.
Saw the Long Ship in the museum in Oslo as a youngster, and recently toured the salvaged warship in Stokholm (cant remember the name of the Ship).
Wonderful thing, that the King ordered another deck of guns on, so it rolled over on its way to terrorise the Danes. The Architects were subsequently punished...


Well, the Danes terrorized us for 500 years, guess it was payback time. LOL It sank on its maiden voyage.
Im surprised Grothar hasn't noticed my doomcasting yet :)
Quoting RTLSNK:


That is always a problem for bikers, your bike goes where you look. Coming down a mountain in the Northern Italian Alps I glanced for just a second at the valley below and almost met a tour bus head on coming up the road. A lesson I always remember. :(

When I had some Influence with my Daughters, there was One Rule.
NO! You cannot go out with a guy on a motor bike.
A bit harsh maybe. But here, Bikers dont last long....
Quoting pottery:

Lordy, Snake.
You going to outlive Grothar....


You call that living?
Quoting MrstormX:
Im surprised Grothar hasn't noticed my doomcasting yet :)


I've seen it. Just not much scares me these days. After all, my mother-in-law just left after a two month visit. Stay safe up there!
Quoting Chicklit:
Would someone please email me why DestinJeff is in jail for 30 days?
30 days!??!?!?! What'd he do? I've been in and out of the blog so hadn't realized he isn't here at all....

BTW, Chick, did u ever get any rain up your way? I know some pple were complaining that it was only coming to S FL....


Quoting Grothar:


I've seen it. Just not much scares me these days. After all, my mother-in-law just left after a two month visit. Stay safe up there!

Lmao, peace out people!
Quoting sunlinepr:

Give him all the support you can.. sometimes it's just a matter of hearing and letting him open his heart to you as a friend....
,thanks for the advice,i do everything i can,my friend became a quadraplagic after a accident 1 1/12 ago and is stuck living in. nursing home here in fl,he's only 26yrs old and all this bs has haappend to him....
Quoting Orcasystems:


You call that living?


YO!
Quoting Grothar:


Well, the Danes terrorized us for 500 years, guess it was payback time. LOL It sank on its maiden voyage.

The Galley is great. The Firesides...
All that stonework, in the bowels of a wooden ship....
And the fearsome faces on the gunports.
Amazing.
Loved it.

But the Nordic longboats. There has never been a more elegant craft.
Quoting pottery:

VASA!!
Yeah. Wonderful.
Was there in 08.


Stockholm is a nice city, isn't it? Didn't know you went to Scandinavia. Don't recall you ever mentioning it. Where else did your travels take you?
Quoting Orcasystems:


You call that living?

You have a point....
Quoting pottery:

The Galley is great. The Firesides...
All that stonework, in the bowels of a wooden ship....
And the fearsome faces on the gunports.
Amazing.
Loved it.

But the Nordic longboats. There has never been a more elegant craft.


Noticed my new avatar? We made it all the way to Minnesota over a thousand years ago in one of those. LOL Greenland was getting too warm.
Quoting pottery:

You have a point....


I'll give you a point! Got me back, I see.
Quoting Grothar:


Stockholm is a nice city, isn't it? Didn't know you went to Scandinavia. Don't recall you ever mentioning it. Where else did your travels take you?

Mother came from Patagonia, of Welsh and English stock.
Her siblings went to Europe during The War.

One sister married a Norwegian who had left Norway when the Germans approached. Into Sweden and then Russia on skis. They shipped him to India and he was sent to California where they taught him to fly.
He spent a couple years flying bombers from Labrador, through Ireland to the UK.
Then they would send him back on a ship, through the Subs, to pick up another one.
He then flew fighters toward the end of the war, and then flew for SAS for many years. Reida(sp?) Fromme was his name, and he had stories to tell that kept us mesmerized.

Another sister married the Baron Sedestrom, in Sweden.

Mother stayed 'on the Estancia' and met my Daddy when he worked for Shell and was looking for oil down there.

Visited them recently, and have been to Denmark, France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, UK.

Going to Patagonia on the 3rd of next month for 3 weeks.
Quoting pottery:

When I had some Influence with my Daughters, there was One Rule.
NO! You cannot go out with a guy on a motor bike.
A bit harsh maybe. But here, Bikers dont last long....


I understand the concept. My father told me an old biker saying. There are bold bikers, and there are old bikers, but there are no old bold bikers. :)
Yo T-dude! When do you think you'll be seeing the storms? In the morning perhaps?
Looking pretty divergent out there:

Quoting RTLSNK:


I understand the concept. My father told me an old biker saying. There are bold bikers, and there are old bikers, but there are no old bold bikers. :)

And now, you are an Old Biker.
See?? You have Admitted it.
(you fell right into that one, Snake. Yer slippin')
Quoting pottery:

And now, you are an Old Biker.
See?? You have Admitted it.
(you fell right into that one, Snake. Yer slippin')


Sort of takes the fun out of it when you trick old people like that.
Quoting pottery:

Mother came from Patagonia, of Welsh and English stock.
Her siblings went to Europe during The War.

One sister married a Norwegian who had left Norway when the Germans approached. Into Sweden and then Russia on skis. They shipped him to India and he was sent to California where they taught him to fly.
He spent a couple years flying bombers from Labrador, through Ireland to the UK.
Then they would send him back on a ship, through the Subs, to pick up another one.
He then flew fighters toward the end of the war, and then flew for SAS for many years. Reida(sp?) Fromme was his name, and he had stories to tell that kept us mesmerized.

Another sister married the Baron Sedestrom, in Sweden.

Mother stayed 'on the Estancia' and met my Daddy when he worked for Shell and was looking for oil down there.

Visited them recently, and have been to Denmark, France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, UK.

Going to Patagonia on the 3rd of next month for 3 weeks.


Just finished reading a article in National Geographic which was all about Patagonia. Very windy place I heard. Some majestic scenery. They showed how all the wool planatations had just been abandoned and the severe economic crisis the region had suffered. But right now, many wealthy Americans are buying estancias down there and the locals are not too happy. Have never been to that part, but would really like to go. Were they from the Argentine side or the Chilean part? I would assume the Argentine? My grandmother was friends with an Argentinian performer from way back. Her name was La Argentina. She was quite famous in her day. Ever heard of her?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sort of takes the fun out of it when you trick old people like that.

Yeh!
He's losing it, you know.
Poor guy. It's so sad...
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Yo T-dude! When do you think you'll be seeing the storms? In the morning perhaps?


hey man!

probably around 5 or 6 am, but i wish they would die out or move through earlier so that the severe threat for tomorrow is more promising
Almost R.I.P time
...RICHARD NEARING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...CLOSE TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...
10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 25
Location: 18.4°N 91.6°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Quoting pottery:

Yeh!
He's losing it, you know.
Poor guy. It's so sad...


Umm your aware he will get ever with both if us right?

He may be old.. but he is tricky.
That wave 5N,30W coming quite low and spinnin, that's the one to watch.....
Quoting Grothar:


Just finished reading a article in National Geographic which was all about Patagonia. Very windy place I heard. Some majestic scenery. They showed how all the wool planatations had just been abandoned and the severe economic crisis the region had suffered. But right now, many wealthy Americans are buying estancias down there and the locals are not too happy. Have never been to that part, but would really like to go. Were they from the Argentine side or the Chilean part? I would assume the Argentine? My grandmother was friends with an Argentinian performer from way back. Her name was La Argentina. She was quite famous in her day. Ever heard of her?

Never heard of the Senora.
The Family was from the Chubut Valley (the Welsh settled there)
My Grandfather, Digby Hamilton Brand was sent to seek his fortunes in Argentina, and was employed to go and create an Estancia (Las Cisnes) near Bariloche,in the foothills, near the Chilean border.
He fell in love with a Lady from Puerto Madryn before he left the east coast, and returned to her arms after several years of Adventure and Hardship, and took her back to the Estancia with him.

It was a Severe life. Like all Pioneers experience.

I have never been, but Cousin Diego from there passed through here earlier this year, and the thing has come together.
He lives in a Nature Reserve, of Roystonia Pine trees, is a fishing guide and outdoors man, and will meet us in Trelew on the east coast, and DRIVE us to Bariloche....

I have no idea what to expect, but am looking forward to the adventure.
Will let you know the outcome....
841. JLPR2
What the models call our future Caribbean ''S'' storm.



It should pay a visit to Pottery as a tropical low.

Now back to studying. :S
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm your aware he will get ever with both if us right?

He may be old.. but he is tricky.

'Slithery', comes to mind....
Quoting tornadodude:


hey man!

probably around 5 or 6 am, but i wish they would die out or move through earlier so that the severe threat for tomorrow is more promising

Yeah, that seems to happen alot here in SETX and we seem to have very few severe weather days because of it. I feel your pain. Maybe if they move through early enough without fropa, the atmosphere will be able to recover and destabilize by the afternoon again. That's a big question mark though. You planning on chasing?
Quoting Grothar:


Just finished reading a article in National Geographic which was all about Patagonia.



Very instructive issue....

Link
If it's true a dedication for dustinjeff sorryLink
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Yeah, that seems to happen alot here in SETX and we seem to have very few severe weather days because of it. I feel your pain. Maybe if they move through early enough without fropa, the atmosphere will be able to recover and destabilize by the afternoon again. That's a big question mark though. You planning on chasing?


yeah I feel ya there,

and maybe a possible chase, but odds are that these storms will be moving around 55 mph or so, very difficult and dangerous to chase. also likely to be high precip. storms as well. not looking like a good chase day, but who knows what will happen
Quoting JLPR2:
What the models call our future Caribbean ''S'' storm.



It should pay a visit to Pottery as a tropical low.

Now back to studying. :S

That's very kind of you.
But I think I will pass, if you dont mind....
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON KATRING (CHABA)
11:00 AM PhST October 26 2010
=====================================

"KATRING"" has intensified into a typhoon as it continues to move a north northwestward direction.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Katring (Chaba) located at 19.7°N 129.2°E or 700 km east southeast of extreme northern Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 5 knots

Additional Information
=======================
This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 p.m. today.

Updates on TY "KATRING" will be included in the 5 p.m. Weather Forecast today.
It has become late....

see you all later.
Stay safe, all.
850. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

That's very kind of you.
But I think I will pass, if you dont mind....


No problem at all LOL!
And good night to you and anyone that went to bed already!

After studying for several hours all I can say for tomorrow's exam is: ''May God have mercy on my soul and brain...'' :S
Sleepy Time.... Students pass exams,,,

Have a good nite all
Guess i mize well pick on Grothar too!
853. JLPR2
90L:


Not bad at all...

Well...
Night all!
854. JRRP


855. JRRP

90L
out
856. flsky
Quoting tornadodude:

That's a nasty line of storms
Quoting flsky:

That's a nasty line of storms


check out tomorrow's outlook,

I live in South Central Indiana....




SPC AC 260606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF INDIANA AND WRN
OH...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN IL...WRN AND NRN
KY...INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI AND CNTRL OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS/TN/OH
VALLEYS...GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS AN INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND 110 KT
MIDLEVEL JET MAX EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MN/WI BORDER SWD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL AND INTO NRN AR AT 12Z...MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE WRN PA BORDER BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BROAD SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD WITH A 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

--- AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY ---

...MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES...TN
VALLEY...

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
SRN WI INTO CNTRL IL AND SERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG
WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE...FAVORING EITHER A
SQUALL LINE OR QLCS STORM MODE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH MID TO UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT/SQUALL LINE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES
INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PRECEDING
THE FRONT FROM WRN KY...SRN AND CNTRL INDIANA INTO WRN OH. EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 AND BUNKERS MOTIONS OVER 60
KTS SUGGEST A FEW LONG LIVED AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR. THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
NWD...ALTHOUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A WIND THREAT AS FAR N AS NY.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...STRONG SHEAR AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...EPISODES OF SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM MS/AL INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

..JEWELL/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/26/2010
compare tomorrow's outlook with this one: link
TropicalDepressionRichard's heading held*steady at (1.5degrees north of) NorthWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~19mph(~30.7km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~9.7mph(~15.6km/h)
* The 0.1degree difference fits well within rounding error.
H.Richard
25Oct 06amGMT - 17.5n89.3w - 65knots(~120.4km/h) -- 987mb - ATCF
TS.Richard
25Oct 09amGMT - 17.6n89.6w - 65mph (~104.6km/h) - - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#18
25Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n90.0w - 40knots(~74.1km/h) -- 1005mb - ATCF
TD.Richard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 17.8n90.2w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19
25Oct 06pmGMT - 18.0n90.8w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) -- 1005mb - ATCF
25Oct 09pmGMT - 18.1n91.2w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) - - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#20
26Oct 12amGMT - 18.1n91.3w - 25knots . (46.4km/h) -- 1003mb - ATCF
26Oct 03amGMT - 18.4n91.6w - 30mph (~48.3km/h) - - 1004mb - NHC.Adv.#21
26Oct 06amGMT - 19.0n92.2w - 25knots . (46.4km/h) -- 1005mb - ATCF

Copy&paste 17.5n89.3w, 17.6n89.6w, 17.7n90.0w, 17.8n90.2w, 18.0n90.8w-18.1n91.2w, 18.1n91.2w-18.1n91.3w, 18.1n91.3w-18.4n91.6w, 18.4n91.6w-19.0n92.2w, tam, rtb into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings&distances travelled over the last 12hours.

As of this report, TD.Richard is ~22miles(~35.4kilometres) offshore in the Bay of Campeche.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
Depression Tropicale 01 2010-2011
10:00 AM Réunion October 26 2010
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01R (997 hPa) located at 10.3S 86.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
20 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.0S 86.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 11.8S 85.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 12.8S 81.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.0S 77.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
========================

Last available satellite imagery depicts a totally exposed low level circulation center east of the convection. System is temporarily under the influence of increasing vertical wind shear. Environmental conditions are expected to keep on improving within the next 48 hours as vertical wind shear decreases and poleward low level inflow increase. On and after 3 days, system would track over marginal cool waters and is therefore expected to stop its intensification. The system is expected to track southwestward and then west southwestward.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TYPHOON CHABA (T1014)
15:00 PM JST October 26 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chaba (965 hPa) located at 19.9N 128.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.9N 127.4E - 75 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 24.1N 128.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 26.0N 129.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
LOOK at these pressure readings!!!

www.srh.noaa.gov
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage The latest weather observations around NWS logo
2 Miles E Rutland ND

Enter Your "City, ST"
Location Time
(cdt) Sky/Weather Temp.
(ºF) Dewpt.
(ºF) Humidity
(%) Wind
(mph) Pressure
(in)
Fargo, Hector International Airport 01:53 Light Rain 50 47 89 NW 16 28.84
Moorhead Municipal Airport 02:15 Light Rain 50 50 100 NW 20 G 25 28.82
Fergus Falls Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting 02:13 Rain 52 52 100 NW 18 28.80
Detroit Lakes Automatic Weather Observing / Report 02:14 Light Rain 54 48 82 SE 8 28.81
Wadena Municipal Airport 02:17 Rain 52 50 94 E 8 28.77
Park Rapids Municipal Airport 01:53 Light Rain Fog/Mist 53 52 96 E 6 28.83
Grand Forks International Airport 01:53 Light Rain 50 49 96 NW 10 28.83
Crookston Municipal Field 02:15 Light Rain 54 54 100 SE 7 28.82
Fosston Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting Sys 02:13 Rain 52 52 100 E 13 G 18 28.82
Bemidji 02:14 Light Rain 55 54 94 E 10 28.86
Devils Lake Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting 02:15 Overcast and Breezy 45 41 87 NW 24 G 30 28.91
Jamestown Municipal Airport 01:56 Light Rain and Windy 42 39 89 NW 26 G 36 28.94
Waskish Municipal Airport 02:13 Rain 54 52 94 E 12 28.91
Hallock Municipal Airport 02:15 Light Rain 55 55 100 SE 16 G 20 28.82
Thief River Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting 02:15 Overcast 54 52 94 E 17 28.85
Click on location name for the weather during the past two days at that site.
^^^ Those are crazy!
Staples Municipal Airport
Lat: 46.38 Lon: -94.81 Elev: 1286
Last Update on Oct 26, 2:14 am CDT

Rain

55 %uFFFDF
(13 %uFFFDC)
Humidity: 100 %
Wind Speed: E 9 MPH
Barometer: 28.77" (974 MB)
Dewpoint: 55 %uFFFDF (13 %uFFFDC)
Wind Chill: 52 %uFFFDF (11 %uFFFDC)
Visibility: 7.00 mi.
Quoting Dunkman:
^^^ Those are crazy!


agreed!
Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Oct 26, 1:53 am CDT

Fair and Breezy

71 °F
(22 °C)
Humidity: 73 %
Wind Speed: S 25 G 31 MPH
Barometer: 29.38" (994.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 62 °F (17 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

definitely been falling here
Quoting tornadodude:


agreed!

MARK my words, we will see at least 1 PDS Tornado Watch tomorrow in IN!!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

MARK my words, we will see at least 1 PDS Tornado Watch tomorrow in IN!!!!


also agreed, looks to be really dangerous,

check out my link to the other outbreak i mentioned a few post ago
Current Weather Conditions:
Wadena, Wadena Municipal Airport, MN, United States

(KADC) 46-27-01N 095-12-39W
Conditions at

2010.10.26 0737 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Rain
Precipitation last hour 0.07 inches
Temperature 51 F (11 C)
Dew Point 50 F (10 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 28.75 in. Hg (973 hPa)
Norwalk, IA
52.3 °F
50 °F
92%
27.96 in (947 hPa)

wonder how accurate this reading is..
Quoting tornadodude:


also agreed, looks to be really dangerous,

check out my link to the other outbreak i mentioned a few post ago

I saw that!! I was SHOCKED!! Remember the Yazoo City, MS set up from 4-2010? That similar scenario is playing out again!!!!
Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

...THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...

.A VERY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH
COULD COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO PRODUCE LOW VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027>031-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.101027T0600Z-101028T0000Z/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-
WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...WARREN...NEWFOLDEN...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...MAHNOMEN...
DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...FERGUS FALLS...
NEW YORK MILLS...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...
MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...
FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...ADAMS
926 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ACCUMULATIONS
MAY VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES DUE TO THE BANDED NATURE
OF HEAVIER SNOW.

* WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...AND VISIBILITIES MAY FALL
BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES IN OPEN AREAS.

* ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK FOR THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Norwalk, IA
52.3 F
50 F
92%
27.96 in (947 hPa)

wonder how accurate this reading is..

Probably 28.96 "!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

I saw that!! I was SHOCKED!! Remember the Yazoo City, MS set up from 4-2010? That similar scenario is playing out again!!!!


yeah definitely is similar, scary setup for me.

the 2005 outbreak had an f3 come within 2 miles of me
Quoting Bordonaro:

Probably 28.96 "!!!


Yeah it is, I just looked at it was 28.98. Also,


Current Weather Conditions:
ST. CLOUD REGIONAL AIRPORT, MN, United States

(KSTC) 45-33N 094-03W
Conditions at

2010.10.26 0734 UTC
Wind from the S (170 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.31 inches
Temperature 59 F (15 C)
Dew Point 57 F (14 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 28.72 in. Hg (972 hPa)
Mankato Automatic Weather Observing / Reporting
Lat: 44.23 Lon: -93.92 Elev: 1020
Last Update on Oct 26, 2:35 am CDT

Overcast

61 °F
(16 °C)
Humidity: 88 %
Wind Speed: S 7 G 16 MPH
Barometer: 28.74"
Dewpoint: 57 °F (14 °C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah definitely is similar, scary setup for me.

the 2005 outbreak had an f3 come within 2 miles of me

Dallas-Ft Worth, TX had a pressure of 29.35 "/993 MB at 7 PM CDT of 10-25-10.

The poop is going to hit the fan REAL hard later today!!!!
gonna be a rough one,

have a good one all,

going to catch a couple hours of sleep
Quoting tornadodude:
gonna be a rough one,

have a good one all,

going to catch a couple hours of sleep

La Nina!! It was 88 F in DFW, TX on 10-25 & there will be Blizzard conditions in ND/MN, and tornadoes in IL!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

La Nina!! It was 88 F in DFW, TX on 10-25 & there will be Blizzard conditions in ND/MN, and tornadoes in IL!!!


Been hot here too of course. I think you were right about the drought looking to be an extended problem as well. Hope the weather doesn't get too severe tomorrow. Just watched a show about the Yazoo City tornado the other day. :( Take care everyone.

Orange, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 7 min 0 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
79 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 18 mph
Pressure: 29.65 in (Steady)
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 7.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 4400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 13 ft
Anyone watching the pressure drop in Chicago? Down to 988.
Quoting violet312s:
Anyone watching the pressure drop in Chicago? Down to 988.


Pressure in Little Falls, MN @ 3:34 PM CDT:

28.68" and FALLING/ 971.2 MB
Chicago down to 985. Dang!
I know I read it earlier today but can no longer find it. What is the lowest pressure in the lower 48 ever recorded? (sans hurricane)
Bombgenesis is commencing:



My parents live in a complete wind tunnel in SW Racine County in Wisconsin. Totally exposed to S/SW winds. Gonna be very ugly.
1900 Hurricane..GFS forecasted a 968 MB bomb..My estimate is this massive Low will bottom out at 955-960MB..
Quoting violet312s:
I know I read it earlier today but can no longer find it. What is the lowest pressure in the lower 48 ever recorded? (sans hurricane)

Not sure, please see attached article on the 1913 Great Lakes Storm, which has a pressure of 28.60":
Link

How the upcoming cyclone ranks among other notable cyclones over the Great Lakes

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1030 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

RANK EVENT DATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

1. Great Ohio Blizzard Jan 26, 1978 950 HPA / 28.05 inches

2. Upcoming October event Oct 26-27, 2010 959 HPA / 28.35 inches **


3. Armistice Day Storm
Anniversary Storm Nov 11, 1940
Nov 10, 1998 967 HPA / 28.55 inches
967 HPA / 28.55 inches

4. Cyclone of 1913
(aka White Hurricane) Nov 7-9, 1913 968 HPA / 28.60 inches

5. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Nov 10, 1975 980 HPA / 28.95 inches

* AVERAGE AMONG SEVERAL CURRENT FORECAST MODELS

$$
MERZLOCK
I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 960 mb or so. It'll be interesting to watch this thing bottom out. And on that note, I'm going back to sleep. I'm not even quite sure what made me get up this ridiculously in the first place! XP
The NHC has raised 90L to 30% (orange), and ATCF says winds are now up to 35 knots, while pressure remains at 1008. If the thing can consolidate and become a bit more tropical in nature in the next 24 hours or so, it might just make it to TD. Remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the slow crawler in the central ATL still has a bit of spin. This is the one the models pick up in a day or two.

NOAA has re-increased the chances of something forming in the southern Caribbean after almost dropping it yesterday.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


With the monster low swirling across the country and the normal summer-to-winter transition underway, this is proving to be an interesting week in the weather, no?
view Yesterday's Weather
Sauk Centre Municipal Airport
Lat: 45.71 Lon: -94.93 Elev: 1244
Last Update on Oct 26, 4:35 am CDT

Overcast

57 °F
(14 °C)
Humidity: 97 %
Wind Speed: E 5 MPH
Barometer: 28.65" (970 MB)
Dewpoint: 56 °F (14 °C)
Visibility: 7.00 mi.
Morning, everyone. TWC is talking about a Bombogenesis for the midwest, kind of like a hurricane over land with low pressure dropping into the mid 900'S? We're under high winds advisory all the way down to Louisiana. Now if only we could get the rain... We're down around 16 inches of rain for the year so far.
A little damp this mornin'.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITY OF KEY WEST...

* UNTIL 715 AM EDT

* AT 510 AM EDT LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A PERSISTENT LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO THE LOWER KEYS...ACROSS KEY
WEST...INTO THE GULF WATERS.

RADAR ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL SHOW AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN A NARROW STRETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS...ACROSS KEY WEST...AND
FURTHER INTO THE GULF WATERS. THE SENSOR AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAS IN EXCESS OF 2.4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE...ACCUMULATION IS IN EXCESS
OF 2.1.
You guys are just rubbing it in where there is rain everywhere else! *G* But the Wranglers Fire here in the National Forest is about 90% contained now. Anyone want to share their rain? Send it this way? We're 80 degrees already and supposed to be close to 90 today with high winds. Glad the fire is so contained.
How can one be in a 3 out of 10 tornado possibility area if one is in a 0% chance of rain area???
aislinapps- welcome to the weather! even tho hurrican season may be close to over, weather still has a way of keeping us interested.

I find winter/spring weather to be much more nail-biting than summer weather.

You'll learn all about the SPC...some of the folks here do a GREAT job for watching weather all across the country.

Hi Bord!! just a zoom thru for me but I saw ya and wanted to say g'morning!! :)
Hey aquak. Looks like Ike nailed Richard.Shame he commented on reality of the situation and was unneseccarily bashed for it.Today was the day Richard was supposed to obliterate Florida.Remember Jeff 9641 lol.Well I guess thats why most of us original members quit blogging on here, too much drama and a mostly a 20 and under crowd.Well Ike if your out there, you nailed the progression of this hurricane season.But wait that mojo and pattern still could change lol.God Bless Aquak and have a blessed day.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Hey aquak. Looks like Ike nailed Richard.Shame he commented on reality of the situation and was unneseccarily bashed for it.Today was the day Richard was supposed to obliterate Florida.Remember Jeff 9641 lol.Well I guess thats why most of us original members quit blogging on here, too much drama and a mostly a 20 and under crowd.Well Ike if your out there, you nailed the progression of this hurricane season.But wait that mojo and pattern still could change lol.God Bless Aquak and have a blessed day.
a blog is no fun unless there are speculators. gfdl been off this yr
I was hoping Richard would bring a little rain to the S. TX Gulf Coast--but I'm not seeing rain in the extended forecast. It's either feast or famine!
Off to teach school, Red Ribbon Week here, so I've got my Saints shirt on. Those in the midwest take care with the weather up there!
UPPER MID WEST GRT LAKES SECTOR

quiet in here this morning
Good morning...

Well... pretty safe to say now that we're in for some additional slow down of the tropical season as we head into the last month of this season, and hostile environment(s) keep expanding.

It does appear neutral to weak La Nina is to be expected next HURR season so we shall see how things will transpire next year.

For one, I sure hope this Winter is not too dry for N and C FL... almost a month with no rain.
Just drove through one heck of a squall line in Decatur, Illinois. Wow! I was only getting 24 mpg going 55mph, usually get 33 mpg. That averaged out over a 40 mile trip. I got a small taste of what it was like to be hurricane for a brief moment....lol winds were easily 60+ gusting higher. Rain was torential.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...

Well... pretty safe to say now that we're in for some additional slow down of the tropical season as we head into the last month of this season, and hostile environment(s) keep expanding.

It does appear neutral to weak La Nina is to be expected next HURR season so we shall see how things will transpire next year.

For one, I sure hope this Winter is not too dry for N and C FL... almost a month with no rain.


Had some thunderstorms a few miles from me last night up toward Mount Dora. First lightning I've seen in over a month. I do expect that C and N FL could see some thunderstorms today and tomorrow and better chances Thursday. Then we wait and see how the models handle next Tuesday and Wednesday disturbance diving toward the gulf coast as this could be not only a big rain maker for FL but possibly a severe wx maker as well as winds will be veering from SSE at the surface to a strong southern jet aloft.
A similar storm to the one today in the Plains could be forming along the C Gulf coast and riding up the East coast of the US as a monster Nor Easter.
Sure is going to be a interesting day in my neck of the woods!


Been a while since we've had a system like this!
90L appears to have a closed surface circulation (or very nearly so) at 25.8N/40.4W, along with convection right at the center. 850mb vorticity is great, winds are at 35 knots, and pressure is steadily (though slowly) falling. If it can keep it up for several more hours, it just might squeeze into classification before the neighborhood turns on it tomorrow...

8:30 EDT ADDENDUM: ATCF now says pressure has dropped yet another millibar to 1007. Winds are still at 35 knots, and the system has moved a bit farther to the south; it's now centered at 25.5N/40.4W.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Just drove through one heck of a squall line in Decatur, Illinois. Wow! I was only getting 24 mpg going 55mph, usually get 33 mpg. That averaged out over a 40 mile trip. I got a small taste of what it was like to be hurricane for a brief moment....lol winds were easily 60+ gusting higher. Rain was torential.

Did you see a shelf cloud?
A high risk day... shut the front door!
Quoting nocaneindy:
Sure is going to be a interesting day in my neck of the woods!


Been a while since we've had a system like this!


Family is in the HIGH circle in South Bend, IN. Didn't know about this one.
Quoting Vincent4989:

Did you see a shelf cloud?

No, wasn't much lightning with the storm, it was too dark to see anything too great, lots of low clouds though, but the winds were near or over 40 the entire trip over.
Not much CAPE yet, but it should build rapidly through this afternoon...

Now THAT's a squall line...



Dominating Dominating Dominating Dominating...
Quoting FLdewey:
Now THAT's a squall line...



Dominating Dominating Dominating Dominating...


Not impressed Dewey. Maybe some daytime heating will boost this line some but right now very thin and mainly just wind with maybe a 10 minute rain.
I expect Shary when I get home today, just my opinion...

This is actually the first time I've said something like that for an Invest that is still at 30%.

However, it has a decent ciruclation, convection, low pressure, and TS force winds.


*Correction** I expected Subtropical Shary when I get home from school today.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Family is in the HIGH circle in South Bend, IN. Didn't know about this one.


Yeah I'm in the same high circle here in Muncie.

That is one big area being mentioned in the Mesoscale Discussion, cant recall a bigger one.

LMAO!!

If you think THAT's a Squall line, come down here in Tx during the Spring...

You'll see one alright.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Family is in the HIGH circle in South Bend, IN. Didn't know about this one.


Next Tuesday we could see another high risk in LA and Miss. Then maybe a moderate risk from Tampa to Cape Canaveral north to SE GA and into the eastern Carolina's as another powerful system builds this time near the Gulf Coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_204.shtml
90L becoming better organized.....
AL, 90, 2010102612, , BEST, 0, 255N, 404W, 35, 1007, LO

Error on Richard's ATCF
AL, 19, 2010102506, , BEST, 0, 175N, 893W, 65, 987, TS

As of 2010102612:
200N, 929W, 25, 1004, TD (close to becoming a remnant low)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Not impressed Dewey. Maybe some daytime heating will boost this line some but right now very thin and mainly just wind with maybe a 10 minute rain.

Ye of little faith... give it some time.

God just removed the microwave's surge inhibitor, put in a bunch of cleaning supplies and silverware, sealed the door tight, and hit popcorn.

You smell that?

I smell an F3 brewing.
LOL... Texas?

Pffft.

Only two things come from Texas, and I don't think "squall line" was on the list. :-p
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LMAO!!

If you think THAT's a Squall line, come down here in Tx during the Spring...

You'll see one alright.


I agree very thin and weak right now. The only reason they have a high risk out is because of the winds and some of the strongest winds are not from the squal line. I expect a more pronounced severe wx event possibly early to mid next next as a system approaches the SE.
Dallas 1 and 5! OUCH! This pretty much sealed Wade Phillips fate now. Even the STL Rams are better than the Cowboys this year.
There's already been a couple tornado warnings, here's a good link for keeping track of them.

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Quoting FLdewey:
Now THAT's a squall line...



Dominating Dominating Dominating Dominating...
ah bubbling up it will go as the heat from the day puts on a nice show thats just the way it will go



Here's JB.

TUESDAY 7 AM EASTERN WARMTH... A GIFT OF THE MEGI?

Ken Reeves and I were on PT-CTRPOINT yesterday and I brought this up, and then my good friend and the ski-ing weatherman, Herb Stevens. independent of seeing that also brought that this warm spell occuring 6-10 days after MEGI moved west through the Philippines can be likened to a "gift of the MEGI". Actually its not the typhoon but what the typhoon is indicating about the overall pattern that is the big deal here. We have a recurving tropical cyclone in the wpac now and that means late next week a trough over the east and of course modeling is seeing that in no uncertain terms now.

What it is not seeing is enough northward move of the ITCZ disturbance that is out near 40 west to crank it up for a phasing as in the idea listed below. Lets see where this is Saturday as the assumption by modeling is that it is over S America and cant develop quick enough.

Richard is remarkable for its Peggy Lee "is that all there is" look. not even the slightest sign ( as of this writing) of convection trying to reform near the center, which is over the water now... as the air over the western gulf is so dry its yelling "die die die, how dare you even think of getting into the gulf" at it.


Notes and asides:

Read this: "...if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, itUs going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere."


Wouldnt you say that those are the words of an extremist? Alarming to say the least. Now how would you like someone like that being chosen by the president to be the chief science officer of the United States?

This is a direct quote from John Holdren just last year. Apparently he just assumes if we get rid of arctic sea ice in the summer ( target one from 2007 was 2010, we are now working on John Kerry's 2013) then winter is right around the corner.

Sort of puts some things about extremist in perspective for me. I issued an impact forecast for the US strictly taking the means of a 16-18 TOTAL storm season with 11 TOTAL hurricanes and 5 TOTAL major overall from back in Feb, and simply using that to come up with 5 US hurricane impacts, 1 or 2 major, was was labeled extreme. Just by taking a mid ground on what such seasons produce. But you have to hit the first part first, which from Feb and then even May, if there is one more, was darn good.. Now we are at storm 17 with 10 hurricanes and 5, perhaps 6 majors for the total.


I guess if I forecasted the arctic ice cap to disappear, and had the power to affect national policy, thats no big deal.

Scientifically, when it comes to such things as AGW, its the age of witches

ciao for now **
are models developing wave moving towards southern antilles...
wow look at the storm in the midwest.
Quoting markot:
are models developing wave moving towards southern antilles...


To some degree yes.
No faith... you guys sound like Joel. :-p

We'll talk tomorrow morning when we read the SPC report.

Fire up the Thunderbolt 1000's.
I was just re-reading the blog entry, and noticed Dr. Masters said "Our seventeen named storms this year also ranks as the 6th most in history." Isn't Richard number eighteen?
Quoting BenInHouTX:
I was just re-reading the blog entry, and noticed Dr. Masters said "Our seventeen named storms this year also ranks as the 6th most in history." Isn't Richard number eighteen?


Never mind. I forgot we skip Q
I guess Jeff Masters is in Miami, wondering about the weather approaching his home in Ann Arbor.

Winds could reach 60 mph in Metro Detroit today
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
wow look at the storm in the midwest.
here is a better image



This has BIG TIME TROUBLE stamped all over it. Bad Tornado outbreak coming today. GEESH
crazy low pressure readings in IL

28.15 pressure in Waukegan, IL

Link

sorted by pressure:
Waukegan Tornado Watch High Wind Advisory Public Information Statement 63.3 °F 87% 28.15 in Light Rain Calm 8:19 AM CDT
Chicago Tornado Watch High Wind Advisory Public Information Statement 66.4 °F 93% 28.42 in Light Thunderstorm Rain Mist SE at 8.0 mph 8:19 AM CDT
Taylorville High Wind Advisory Record Report 59.5 °F 74% 28.58 in Clear WSW at 16.0 mph 8:14 AM CDT
Danville High Wind Advisory Record Report Local Storm Report 62.5 °F 83% 28.61 in
Good Morning WU -
S. Wisconsin this morning - Pressure is at 28.79, 30MPH SW winds with higher gusts. We are over 300 miles from the center of the low!
Is anyone on from Minnesota this morning?



If you look at the CAPE graphic above you can see the collision of winds in different directions, starting in Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and into Mississippi! This will move to the East today. A day of Tornado's for those guys coming today. The heating of the day will really be bad late this evening and tonite. NOtice how OHio is the strongest possiblity....that is because of the heating of the day with clear skies before the front. Big time trouble coming there as i agree with the NWS.
MN even lower:

Link

Albert Lea High Wind Advisory Record Report 46.2 °F 96% 27.28 in!! crazy


What a Low Pressure system this is...WOW
Quoting TampaSpin:



If you look at the CAPE graphic above you can see the collision of winds in different directions, starting in Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and into Mississippi! This will move to the East today. A day of Tornado's for those guys coming today. The heating of the day will really be bad late this evening and tonite. NOtice how OHio is the strongest possiblity....that is because of the heating of the day with clear skies before the front. Big time trouble coming there as i agree with the NWS.


Thats how I see it too. You can already see the line getting stronger. Indianapolis is currently under a tornado warning, and it will be in my area shortly. East of me.. Watch out later!
Plenty of places in MN below 28

KMGK (Magic 107.1) FM, Glenwood, Minnesota (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
42.4 °F
Light Rain
Windchill: 39 °F
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 41 °F
Wind: 9.0 mphfrom the WSW

Wind Gust: 21.0 mph
Pressure: 27.56 in (Steady)


I don't recall seeing MN pressure readings so low... As low as a CAT 4 cane
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Read this: "...if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it's going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere." Wouldnt you say that those are the words of an extremist? Alarming to say the least. Now how would you like someone like that being chosen by the president to be the chief science officer of the United States? This is a direct quote from John Holdren just last year. Apparently he just assumes if we get rid of arctic sea ice in the summer ( target one from 2007 was 2010, we are now working on John Kerry's 2013) then winter is right around the corner.

Sort of puts some things about extremist in perspective for me...Scientifically, when it comes to such things as AGW, its the age of witches

Oh, JB. What are we going to do with this guy? He accuses a well-respected, highly-ranked scientist of alarmism--that is, a form of hyperbole--by engaging in some actual hyperbole of his own. Holdren was only presenting a few "ifs" and "coulds". It's no different than a doctor telling you, "If you don't stop smoking, and if you don't stop drinking so much, and if you don't stop overeating, and if you don't get off the couch and start exercising, you could die." I wouldn't call that alarmism (though the guys who sell you cigarettes and booze and fast food probably would).

Having said that: what's so wrong with a little alarmism? When your home is burning, you sound the fire alarm; when the planet is in peril, what else should you do? The alarm's being sounded...though entrenched corporate interests with very deep pockets have managed to mostly drown it out.
This is one wound up low - Have seen several reports of trees & power lines down, I'm afraid this is just the beginning. The warning here goes through tomorrow.
Is that pressure 959 or 989? I don't know, the last 70 or so, my eyes have been failing me.

No, its reads 959.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Dallas 1 and 5! OUCH! This pretty much sealed Wade Phillips fate now. Even the STL Rams are better than the Cowboys this year.
problem is the owner and his daughter i thought the system to watch was them clouds near 35 w 10n
JB says what he says because he recognizes the politcal intent of such silly statements. If the issue wasn't so politisized. It would be about the science. ANd on a weather note...What a system going thru the lakes! I wonder if it's a harbinger of things to come this winter?
Quoting Grothar:
Is that pressure 959 or 989? I don't know, the last 70 or so, my eyes have been failing me.



You need better glasses lol
I know most skyscrapers are rated for around 100 MPH winds - but im not sure what peak gusts could be in this system.

955 - the projected pressure was 959 by the NWS yesterday.

Strange (or not so) there seems to be tornadoes also embedded in this one.

A gust of 70 mph is the highest one confirmed so far that I see.
Morning. Been really having fun watching everthing fly by in Upper Michigan this morning. Dark like 530pm during hunting season. The latest from where I'm at, personal weather station-wise:

All Weather Stations Personal Weather Stations MADIS Weather Stations Weather Stations WunderMap

Station Location Temp. Dew Point Humidity Wind Pressure Precipitation Elevation Updated Type
Negaunee, Mi, Negaunee, MI
Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 58.6 °F 57 °F 94% North at 0.0 mph
28.87 in 0.00 in / hr 1415 ft 25 sec ago Normal
APRSWXNET Negaunee MI , Negaunee, MI
Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System, Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 59.0 °F 58 °F 98% SE at 11.0 mph
28.86 in 0.00 in / hr 1411 ft 4 min 41 sec ago MADIS Website
National Mine, Ishpeming, MI
Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 57.7 °F 56 °F 93% South at 5.3 mph
29.00 in 0.27 in / hr 1430 ft 4 min 58 sec ago Normal
West Ishpeming, Ishpeming, MI
Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 58.5 °F 57 °F 94% SE at 9.4 mph
- 0.24 in / hr 1500 ft 1 sec ago Rapid Fire
Trowbridge Park, Marquette, MI
Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 59.2 °F 58 °F 97% SE at 0.0 mph
28.86 in - / hr 735 ft 22 sec ago Normal
Marquette, MI
Woz Family Weather, Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 58.5 °F 58 °F 99% ENE at 0.0 mph
28.90 in - / hr 895 ft 7 min 8 sec ago Normal Website
South Marquette, Marquette, MI
Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 59.2 °F 58 °F 94% ESE at 0.0 mph
28.83 in 0.04 in / hr 636 ft 4 min 58 sec ago Normal
Green Creek, Ishpeming, MI
Set as Default Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts 58.1 °F 58 °F 100% SSW at 12.7 mph
28.89 in 0.43 in / hr 1450 ft


Kite surfing later on.

High Wind Warning
Statement as of 3:26 AM CDT on October 26, 2010


... High Wind Warning remains in effect from 8 am EDT /7 am CDT/
this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday...

A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 8 am EDT /7 am CDT/
this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday.

* Expect strong and possibly damaging southwest winds to develop this
afternoon. While winds will diminish a little tonight... winds will
increase again Wednesday morning.

* Southwest wind gusts may reach 50 to 60 mph at times this afternoon
into Wednesday. Sustained winds of 30 mph to 40 mph are likely.

* These strong winds have the potential to down tree limbs...
trees and power lines. Numerous power outages may occur.
Travel may also be difficult in open areas... especially for
high profile vehicles.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

We're already 4 tornadoes in... countless sheriffnados too I'm sure.


Tornado Warning

Statement as of 10:23 AM EDT on October 26, 2010

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1045 am EDT for northern
St. Joseph County in North Central Indiana... and western Cass and
Berrien counties in southwest Michigan...

At 1020 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a line of severe thunderstorms with strong rotation. These
severe storms were located along a line extending from Bridgman to 8
miles southwest of Buchanan to 8 miles southwest of South Bend... and
moving northeast at 50 mph.

Locations in the path of severe thunderstorms include...
St. Joseph... Buchanan and South Bend...
Fair Plain... Benton Heights and Benton Harbor...
Lake Michigan Beach... Lake Michigan beac and Granger...
Watervliet... Coloma and Paw Paw Lake...

Other locations impacted by this line of severe thunderstorms include
Shoreham... Sodus... Bertrand... Eau Claire... Indian Village...
Millburg... Sumnerville... Pokagon... Indian Lake and Barron Lak
28.48" PRESSURE OR 964.4 MB

Aitkin NDB Automatic Weather Observing / Reporting 09:13 Heavy Rain 57 55 94 Calm 28.48


A massive system; a little basic geometry says that the clouds connected with the entire system--that is, that stretch from the Grand Banks of of Newfoundland westward to the Dakotas, then southward to Texas--encompass an area of roughly 2.5 million square miles. By way of comparison, Typhoon Tip, the largest tropical cyclone on record, covered a bit under 1.5 million square miles--while an average-sized TC covers about 75,000 square miles.

Incredible...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
LOOK AT THIS. Sorry for shouting. Today is 10-26-10 @ 9:40 AM :O)

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 723
A PDS TORNADO WATCH has just been issued
965. IKE
RIP Rick....

...RICHARD BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 26
Location: 20.4N 93.1W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb

............................................

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

RICHARD LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROHIBIT REGENERATION.

THE LOW IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THIS
MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.4N 93.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 21.6N 93.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.2N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
From Racine Co Wisconsin

UPDATED Tuesday, October 26, 2010 --- 9:25 a.m.

SUBJECT: Situation Report #1 on Severe Weather
From the WI Dept of Military Affairs

Racine County Emergency Management has reported a tornado or downburst has hit the Sturtevant area. The Case Corporation lost part of their roof, several homes are reporting damage and numerous power lines are down. Part of Highway 11 is closed due to debris.

WEM Regional Director has been in contact with Racine County. In addition, WEM Emergency Fire Services Coordinator has been notified due to a request for fire mutual aid.

There has been no other request for state assistance.

High wind warnings remain in effect for most of the state.


For all to my east, stay safe!
PDS wow, things are going to be interesting all day, only 11edt
85 here north of Orlando with heat index of 91 at 5 minutes to 11am. WOW!
Quoting MrstormX:

Of course
I'm so sorry to hear that! Its verry sad when someone dies of a drug overdose.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
PDS wow, things are going to be interesting all day, only 11edt


Looking at the models the next 3 weeks could very interesting. Another monster is due to arrive next Tuesday but this time it's the south that could be in a high risk area then transitioning to a hell of a Nor Easter.
20 tornado warnings... wow
It is looking like this winter of 2010/2011 could be similar to that of 2007/2008 with lots of severe wx outbreaks for the south and mid south as warm/moist air will be much further north than last year.
Another Tornado Watch soon, incredible
At the rate that this line is moving I am surprised that western NY/PA is not in a mdt risk for severe storms
NHC reclassifies TropicalDepressionRichard as a a remnant low
TD.Richard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 17.8n90.2w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19
25Oct 06pmGMT - 18.0n90.8w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) -- 1005mb - ATCF
25Oct 09pmGMT - 18.1n91.2w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) - - 1005mb - NHC.Adv..#20
26Oct 12amGMT - 18.1n91.3w - 25knots . (46.4km/h) -- 1003mb - ATCF
26Oct 03amGMT - 18.4n91.6w - 30mph (~48.3km/h) - - 1004mb - NHC.Adv.#21
26Oct 06amGMT - 19.0n92.2w - 25knots . (46.4km/h) -- 1005mb - ATCF
26Oct 09amGMT - 19.4n92.5w - 30mph (~48.3km/h) - - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#22
26Oct 12pmGMT - 20.0n92.9w - 25knots . (46.4km/h) -- 1004mb - ATCF
(ex)Richard
26Oct 03pmGMT - 20.4n93.1w - 30mph (~48.3km/h) - - 1004mb - NHC.Adv.#23

Copy&paste 17.8n90.2w, 18.0n90.8w, 18.1n91.2w, 18.1n91.3w, 18.4n91.6w-19.0n92.2w, 19.0n92.2w-19.4n92.5w, 19.4n92.5w-20.0n92.9w, 20.0n92.9w-20.4n93.1w tam, rtb into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings&distances traveled over the last 12hours.
Tornado Watch #724:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
At the rate that this line is moving I am surprised that western NY/PA is not in a mdt risk for severe storms


I suspect a moderate risk will build in later. This line is hauling right now.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
At the rate that this line is moving I am surprised that western NY/PA is not in a mdt risk for severe storms

Aitkin NDB Automatic Weather Observing / Reporting 09:55 Light Rain 57 54 88 Calm 28.45

28.45" is 963.4 MB
Jeff,

what do you think about the tropics? seems like after the next couple of weeks, the tropics could basically start quieting down.

Another Tornado watch soon: whats the record for most watches at once?
Quoting kshipre1:
Jeff,

what do you think about the tropics? seems like after the next couple of weeks, the tropics could basically start quieting down.



I think we will get another Caribbean development next week but will get involved in this next powerful area of low pressure that is expected to develope across the deep south. The Jet associated with this system next week could be 100 mph plus plowing up the eastern seaboard.
The list of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings is getting ridiculously long; there are currently warnings in effect for Memphis, Nashville, Louisville, Paducah, Wilmington (OH), Grand Rapids, Indianapolis, and many places in between. Again: incredible...
Cooling trends vs. Warming trends

It seems you are on one side or the other. Well, aren’t you? Too hot, too cold, Man made or not, it’s just a phase or cycle, big industry, political affiliation. The problem is most people have some opinion but they are on the fence because the problem is now convoluted by cynical interest groups or either they’re too far detached from good sense and science. Maybe, you just don’t give a care because you’re caught in the rat race. Individuals, corporations and governments are all part of the problem and responsible for contributing factors to AGW such as polluting, littering and be wasteful, not sowing what they reap. Instead of pointing fingers, rally together and double efforts to engaged the public and fund scientists who, will focus and fix the main elements which sustain our planet and the humans who inhabit it, grade them like schools and yank the funding if they don’t make sizable contributions. Ensure awareness, publish and educate people of their environmental footprint, you should know it like calorie counting! Fund things good for the environment, science should not be spending whole lives in the pursuit of causation and continuing to protect a empty, tired rice bowl, quit taking a new approach and mobilize, start by looking at the obvious, taking responsibility for failed campaigns, police those who need help and look for answers which are all around us and we can solve this at all levels. The “science”, unfocused efforts and disinformation of all this has everyone standing like a deer caught in headlights. It has sane people unable to act on natural tendencies, wrongly mixing, grouping and separating things that naturally occur and those that are done of free will and negligence. Stop mapping trends on a chart and forming committees, the earth is a “complex” environment, with big and small problems. I’m talking about all the elements that make up a periodic table on and how polluted things are becoming on molecular levels. It’s our symbiotic relationship between all things that inhabit earth. It's not something only Superman can fix like polarity, our axis, solar flares or asteroids. Global warming, give us a break. Yeah, we’re warming and cooling, its cyclic. We can map and make logical ties of cause and effect to the air, water, climatology and atmosphere. Basic problem solving needs to get to work, positive and negative, yen and yang, every action has a reaction. This heavy stuff is causing great divides. I know we all tend to focus on our own survival needs but a lot is at stake in this argument. We can’t continue to put it all on the drawing board and discuss it, taking steps backward. Learn from what’s now happening. From a much simpler perspective, I just want to fix what I can fix and do my part, good citizenship. Sure, I wonder about things like if I washed my car, spend too much time in the shower could I add to water shortages, well yeah. Water shortage is the major problem it deserves proper attention and focus and it is getting worse day by day. It is and will continue to be what plagues us and if we don’t focus on the water problems, nothing else will matter. Water is life sustaining not the stuff you cook with, flush, shower, shave, water your landscape, wash your vehicle with. It turns out the “upswing in activity”, global warming (ice caps melting), food shortages and most “Key Environmental Causes” all are linked, tied, connected and caused by water, its shortages and issues. They say we are all crisis driven these days, well here’s your sign. Fix the water problem and quit blaming factors. The world is 2/3’s water; most of it is not potable with salinity and pollution problems. Folks, the ice cap are melting while everyone is out to lunch, so you can get my bottle of water at the 7-11, selfish. Quit wasting potable water, or replace it. Fix the oceans and waters, harvest the oceans water and replenish the grounds, Mother Nature can’t continue do the rest. The supporting Science has already been hashed and re-hashed. And the point is Quit arguing do something.


After the bizarro October heat we've been having in Missouri (we broke records for highest minimum temps in St. Louis in the last couple days), and the howling winds we had yesterday, I wasn't surprised by the squall line that passed through my neck of the woods at 4AM. I WAS surprised, however, by the tornado warnings it prompted just north of me. Very odd weather for this time of the year.
Then I come online to check on Richard's demise and see what 90L is up to, and see y'all are taking about "my" landcane. :)
Here's hoping it just blows itself out without doing any great injury.
SQUAWK!!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:
LOOK at these pressure readings!!!

www.srh.noaa.gov
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage The latest weather observations around NWS logo
2 Miles E Rutland ND

Enter Your "City, ST"
Location Time
(cdt) Sky/Weather Temp.
(ºF) Dewpt.
(ºF) Humidity
(%) Wind
(mph) Pressure
(in)
Fargo, Hector International Airport 01:53 Light Rain 50 47 89 NW 16 28.84
Moorhead Municipal Airport 02:15 Light Rain 50 50 100 NW 20 G 25 28.82
Fergus Falls Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting 02:13 Rain 52 52 100 NW 18 28.80
Detroit Lakes Automatic Weather Observing / Report 02:14 Light Rain 54 48 82 SE 8 28.81
Wadena Municipal Airport 02:17 Rain 52 50 94 E 8 28.77
Park Rapids Municipal Airport 01:53 Light Rain Fog/Mist 53 52 96 E 6 28.83
Grand Forks International Airport 01:53 Light Rain 50 49 96 NW 10 28.83
Crookston Municipal Field 02:15 Light Rain 54 54 100 SE 7 28.82
Fosston Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting Sys 02:13 Rain 52 52 100 E 13 G 18 28.82
Bemidji 02:14 Light Rain 55 54 94 E 10 28.86
Devils Lake Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting 02:15 Overcast and Breezy 45 41 87 NW 24 G 30 28.91
Jamestown Municipal Airport 01:56 Light Rain and Windy 42 39 89 NW 26 G 36 28.94
Waskish Municipal Airport 02:13 Rain 54 52 94 E 12 28.91
Hallock Municipal Airport 02:15 Light Rain 55 55 100 SE 16 G 20 28.82
Thief River Automatic Weather Observing/Reporting 02:15 Overcast 54 52 94 E 17 28.85
Click on location name for the weather during the past two days at that site.
My goodness! those pressures are low! This storm really means business!
Wow! Key West has had quite a bit of rain! They should share some of it with us here in Sarasota!
Quoting IKE:
RIP Rick....

...RICHARD BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 26
Location: 20.4�N 93.1�W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb

............................................

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

RICHARD LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROHIBIT REGENERATION.

THE LOW IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THIS
MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.4N 93.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 21.6N 93.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.2N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
I love the humor some of these forecasters use in the discussion! Forecaster Franklin has a great sense of humor and I loved hearing his discussions on storms!
A pds tornado watch? Wow! you don't see those very often!
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
At the rate that this line is moving I am surprised that western NY/PA is not in a mdt risk for severe storms


The low pressure center is moving north, thus the front will actually be slowing down in terms of eastward movement.