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Revolt at NHC; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:24 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

The extraordinary political turmoil at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continued yesterday, with the release of a statement signed by nearly half of the staff calling for the immediate dismissal of director Bill Proenza. Front page stories in both the Miami Herald and Florida Sun-Sentinel detail the letter, which reads: "An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission. The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director. The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake. The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in." The letter is signed by 23 of the center's 49 employees, including almost the entire senior staff. Many NHC employees were on vacation, and did not have the opportunity to sign the letter.

The articles in the two newspapers also quote my blog from yesterday, where I present the case against Bill Proenza--his misrepresentation of the science of how much the QuikSCAT satellite influences hurricane track forecasts. I'll have more to say on the matter this afternoon, when I've had a chance to process some of the feedback on this.

Tropical update
A low pressure system (96L) with a well-defined spin is about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, moving westward towards the islands at 10-15 mph. This low continues to show sporadic heavy thunderstorm activity, but has been unable to overcome the large amount of dry air it is embedded in. It would appear that 96L's window of opportunity for developing into a tropical depression has closed, as wind shear has risen to 20 knots and is expected to remain at least 20 knots for the next two or three days. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Model tracks for 96L, the low pressure system approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

New disturbance off the east coast of Florida
An area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of Florida along an old frontal boundary. Long range radar out of Melbourne, FL shows a large disorganized area of showers off the coast. The area is under 20-25 knots of wind shear, and the shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots for at least the next two days in the region, which should prevent any development. The GFS computer model shows this disturbance moving off to the northeast over the weekend, but it could bring heavy rains to Florida and the Northwest Bahamas Friday and Saturday before it does so. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr.
Surprised you didn't draw a mustache on Proenza's pic...LOL.
dr wind shear is olny 15kt where are you get 20 to 25kt of wind shear from what maps do you ues the same has the nhc dos?
OMG! I believe this is the first time I've Caught the blog at the beginning!! Whoo Hoo! No Backtracking!
lol kris
Whats up Dr.Masters with the Proenza mug shots? By the way your link of the Melbourne Radar goes to EATL Wind Shear!
This map is showing 15 to 20knt shear Link
Not 20 to 25
Unless I am reading it wrong. Wich I may be.
I am not a met.
In the face of a mutiny, Proenza should consider firing his whole staff then replace them with offshored forecasters from India. They're highly skilled and trained, work all hours of the day, and no expensive govt pension or benefit packages to worry about. That's the way the majority of the US corporate technology industry would handle it. Sorry to say that, but it's the rule of day in current times.
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 1:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Whats up Dr.Masters with the Proenza mug shots? By the way your link of the Melbourne Radar goes to EATL Wind Shear!


thats because he was talking about 96L. you can see the windershear over 96L.
lol stormhype i don't think thats gonna solve the problem.
Overview of Florida blob:

Do not worry about it, even if it does develop. Steering currents would take it out to sea. And, wind shear and SSTs are marginal. So...
No worries here.
thanks Dr m i was on the right track.other systems have survived 20knots wind shear. Chris last year was an example.dry air might be the problem. even if the system does not develop, it will bring squally weather to the s windwards late sat
16. IKE
Thanks for the update....

Your shear map is making me bug-eyed.
Bill Proenza was heralded as an underdog whistle-blower on the State of the Disunion at the NHC--if my memory serves me, even by Dr. Masters, at least initially. The view was that he was going to be the target of higher-ups who didn't want to fix anything.

It turns out he may be chewed up and spit out by the very people he was trying to help, for shaking things up. The ostensible excuse is his use of a shaky argument about the impact of losing QuickScat.

At a time when the weather has become exceedingly political, it's amazing that the weather bureaucracy would turn on him for seeking more resources.

The so-called scientific foundations of the alarmist warnings about Global Warming (and, more to the point, the illusion that we know how to "fix" it legislatively) are at least as dubious as anything Proenza was saying, and all he was asking for is a new satellite.

Go figure.
I am wriding vrom Mumbai, India to NHC. Vie vill inderbret the invormajshun vor you much more qvigly and egonomigly.
19. IKE
Oh...good thing there isn't much going on now...with the problems at the NHC. That's almost becoming an embarassment.
I personally would like to see Bill Proenza stay at least untill the end of Hurricane Season. After Hurricane Season is over i wouldn't really care if i gets the boot.
Posted By: franck at 1:50 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

I am wriding vrom Mumbai, India to NHC. Vie vill inderbret the invormajshun vor you much more qvigly and egonomigly.


ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!!
This was bound to happen - power to the people!!
I don't think you can equate the political turmoil happening now at the NHC with their ability to do their job. regardless of who they support ot not support..when crunch time comes..i'm guessing they will show they are professionals and they'll focus on the weather at hand
I don't care about who does the NHC. Time to talk about the actual tropics.
*Rocky Theme*
26. IKE
Posted By: Altestic87 at 8:59 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
I don't care about who does the NHC. Time to talk about the actual tropics.


Okay....

Here's what's going on in the Atlantic....


....
....
27. IKE
The only storm is on land at the NHC and it's a cat 3 and strengthening!
Blob near Florida, wave out in the Atlantic. None a major threat to land. One moving out to sea.
What happens at the NHC is vital to those that live in hurricane prone areas. So it is just as important as talking about a dying invest that is 1500 miles away and a threat to nothing. Not even the fish.
I'm actually kind of embarrassed for the Hurricane Center because it is obvious from their turning on Proenza that they basically chickened out of standing up for themselves when it comes to resources. I personally was skeptical of his appointment because I had never heard of him before and in the past, the hurricane center picked new directors from those next in line like Avila. He didn't want the job. Someone higher up got to them.

In government, the higher ups tell you they want to hear your input as sort of a public relations image for public consumption. If you speak up you get your head lopped off. His underlings didn't like being in the limelight and were affraid of having their heads lopped off (Ie less funding as punishment) so they caved. It has nothing to due with public confidence as some have said. It has to due with knowing where your bread is buttered and not biting the hand that feeds you even if you are only getting scraps anyway.
Can they actually throw Bill Proenza out of office? I wouldn't resign just because my staff BELOW ME didn't support me. I'd just fire them.
After the events of this week, I found myself thinking after reading the various TWOs, whether they are putting their full energies into the outlooks or if the TWOs are being written half-arsed. I know its a very crazy thought and I know it isn't true and that the NHC will be professional no matter what....but....if I'm thinking this and questioning the TWOs, can you imagine what the "general public" must think?? I truly hope a resolution is found very, very soon!!
33. IKE
Posted By: C2News at 9:04 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Can they actually throw Bill Proenza out of office?


If almost half of the staff(23 of 49), wants him gone...I don't think him staying is a wise thing to do.

This is like Bush and Gonzalez vs. the Dems.
Like I said last night. The NHC staff is trying to save there butt and look all good in front of NOAA. In my opinion Bill Proenza is doing a great job. What ever happened to freedom of speech???
Posted By: Altestic87 at 9:59 AM EDT on July 06, 2007.

I don't care about who does the NHC. Time to talk about the actual tropics.



If you can find a Tropical System that is WORTH Tracking then you let me know!
Anyone have a tracking map on that political storm?

I'm guessing the models don't intialize it.
Good Morning, and thanks for the update. It's clear Proenza must go due to politics, but don't fall into the same trap of relying on a single report to call the science flawed. There are plenty of other studies by NASA, NOAA & etc... google it that could have been used.

The need for Seawinds sensor was clearly evident when another was launched on ADEOS II (http://winds.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/seawinds/index.cfm) 14 December 2002. It measured winds on a daily basis from 10 April to 24 October 2003, when ADEOS-II irrecoverably lost power.

It is still a very valuable and useful tool that will be sorely missed while "a better mousetrap" is being built as suggested.

Is that a low forming off of Florida?

39. IKE
After the events of this week, I found myself thinking after reading the various TWOs, whether they are putting their full energies into the outlooks or if the TWOs are being half-arsed.

I think they should go into more depth then..."environmental conditions aren't favorable"...Do you think the common person that doesn't pay much attention to the tropics understands that completely? Heck..I don't either, other than reading up on here and other places.

Why aren't they favorable...dry air...shear...explain it slightly more detail.

Politics always lead to storms!

Hi Rainman!
I don't think we will see much until mid August and then look out. (gee, coincides with the REAL hurricane season). Personally, I think hurricane season is too long. Yeah we get storms in June, but not enough to include June in the season. Personally, I would have made hurricane season from July 1st to November 1st. Yeah, we would have storms outside these dates, but then again we've had a storm every month of the year at some point in time.
"Why aren't they favorable...dry air...shear...explain it slightly more detail."

that's what the tropical weather discussions are for. they are quite detailed. the outlooks are supposed to be short and to the point so they can be easily digested.
Why stop at July? Make it Aug. 1, that's when the real season begins.
45. IKE
Posted By: rwdobson at 9:17 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
"Why aren't they favorable...dry air...shear...explain it slightly more detail."

that's what the tropical weather discussions are for. they are quite detailed. the outlooks are supposed to be short and to the point so they can be easily digested.


Most people don't read the discussions.

All they have to do is add about another paragraph to each area of disturbed weather. Probably not even that much.
Would the NHC notice if a storm was brewing?? Or are they too busy bickering? Writing petitions?
47. IKE
Posted By: rwdobson at 9:18 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Why stop at July? Make it Aug. 1, that's when the real season begins.


90% of the time you're right.
NHC <------------------needs something applied directly to their foreheads!!!

Let's get back on the weather...tons more interesting than all the politics. We can turn on the tube for that suffering.
Being on this board in June and July is like waiting for the music store to open so that you can buy Pink Floyd concert tickets (back in 1986).
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 9:20 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
NHC <------------------needs something applied directly to their foreheads!!!


Right on! Head on! LOL
Rainman, ok so maybe the only thing bill did wrong was a lack of proper judgement


actually...as a manager..lack of judgement could easilly be grounds for termination......but....JP...you pubicly bash your bosses..and how long will your vacation be?
Many NHC employees were on vacation, and did not have the opportunity to sign the letter.

If you weren't sure these folks are bureaucrats, then tell me why they take vacations during hurricane season?! For the few dozen people in that place that track hurricanes for a living, they should take all of their taxpayer-paid vacations from Dec 1 - May 31. I totally support the director and hope he is able to hang on.
Rw, you are right. Make it August 1st.
Ya know what. Bosses should be bashed publicly. If you suck, then screw this mamby pamby behind closed doors BS.

...and the bosses at the head of NOAA were being bashed. That letter by the forecasters was a preventive 'cover your ass' response.
really nash?......you work for me....you can come and bash me anyday any time..you bash me publicly..and by doing so bring a cloud upon this department..that even though you might not agree with my business practices or managerial style.....you'll see the unemployemnt line..and i'll hand you the ticket...there's proper ways to deal with problems..bill's way wasn't....
That letter by the forecasters was a preventive 'cover your ass' response.


Exactly.
Wonder how many Bosses know their employee's are Blogging instead of doing thier Job? ;P
59. IKE
Posted By: bluehaze27 at 9:21 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Being on this board in June and July is like waiting for the music store to open so that you can buy Pink Floyd concert tickets (back in 1986).


LOL
those were the good ole days.
used to get front row aerosmith tickets that way
"The articles in the two newspapers also quote my blog from yesterday, where I present the case against Bill Proenza--his misrepresentation of the science of how much the QuikSCAT satellite influences hurricane track forecasts. I'll have more to say on the matter this afternoon, when I've had a chance to process some of the feedback on this."

Very strong words Dr M !
Good morning all..........

If jedkins is around i pulled up some rainfall data for him and working on yesterdays rainfall as well.........

96L is still fighting.........

Question for all you weather enthusiasts......Does anyone remember where KATRINA came from, out of what disturbance? Does anyone remember that there was a little wantabe depression chugging along the atlantic with similar hostile environment as 96L..... Actually the depression like storm was completely dismissed by almost everyone and then it reappeared north of Puerto Rico.....Does anyone remember that?

How can we ever forget?...
the politics in the NHC is getting worse than our governments. scary part is we dont get a chance to vote these people in or out
Well, my boss is umm, well it's me and I just asked if I cared if I blogged a little and I said its okay. So I am going to give myself a little raise and do my own evaluation, tell me how good I am, and look forward to the weekend. By the way whats up with 96L, this thing pulled a disappearing act and would't you know it, he came back. I wish everyone would stop talking like a slow season so far is a bad thing, umm last time I checked death and property damage were the bad things. The season will speed up believe me, lets just not wish it along so fast.
Yes I know that was at a different time of the Hurricane season.....yeah yeah..... 96L wants to do something....until its completely gone you never know.......
Pat i was just about to say that...glad i refreshed the page ha ha
Weatherboykris posted a Tri-acter LOL


Looks like the future of 96L is very unlikely
This season is still very young.....Not even close to when some strong seasons have started...... Most of those impatience people are young.....which is ok......I get impatience some times.........lol
Proenza's done. 96L is done. 97L (or what will become 97L) will never be....

Posted By: bigtrucker at 2:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
the politics in the NHC is getting worse than our governments. scary part is we dont get a chance to vote these people in or out


Ummmmmmmm Bigtrucker, the politics at NHC are like the government because IT IS part of the government.

It works this way in just about every other governmental organization, but for whatever reason, this one is getting more press than most do, probably due to the recent spate of intense hurricanes in the past few seasons......
Dr. M has become part of the story.
.
.
Oh, and in response to the poster who said something about some people at NHC being on vacation this time of year. Keep in mind the short July 4th holiday, which some may have stretched into a long weekend. And there is nothing doing in the tropics.
Hey bigtrucker, Aerosmith was my first official rock concert. I was twelve, it was 1978, they were drunk (Frank Marino was good), my mom drove me and my friends(embarrassing), tickets were $11 general admission at what was known as the Hollywood Snortatorium in Hollywood Fl. Sorry for the hikack of the board.
the NHC mess is going to get worse...NBC Miami just had reporter state that "some" say this is another case of the Bush admin "trying to silence" its critics...Rep Ron Klein and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz(democrats) have already joined in to make this political.

I recall Max Mayfield on ABC 10 a few weeks refuting the whole Quicksat mess
Could the NHC staff walk out on the job if Proenza is not ousted?
It has the smell of a silencing.
Posted By: weatherboyfsu at 2:42 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Question for all you weather enthusiasts......Does anyone remember where KATRINA came from, out of what disturbance? Does anyone remember that there was a little wantabe depression chugging along the atlantic with similar hostile environment as 96L..... Actually the depression like storm was completely dismissed by almost everyone and then it reappeared north of Puerto Rico.....Does anyone remember that?

.
.
I remember weatherboy. But what you write is not true. That's revisionist history. This board in general roots on any patch of clouds that it can latch on to and dreams about the possibilities. Katrina was no different. I think maybe 1 or 2 wrote her off. The rest rooted her on.

The wu land has been fun..but very little substance has come out of the featured heirarchy above the group bloggers below.

How many souls can the wundergrond chew up and spit out? Im done here mostly.Its futile...Ive banged these keys for a year. With little result for the area to show for it. I might have raised a lil conscience levels..and the overall response has been welcomed. I choose to continue in another vein mostly.
It pains me to see someone "elevate" their cause..at the expense of a public trust ..or an Individual. All over some Quikscat mis quotes.

Crazy. I think politics and forecasting is like Oil and vinager. They never mix well..till shaken. There some here in High places who think its their JOB to shake. Instead of doing what the PHD they hold calls for.... Thanks

ummmm i know that mike, but We the people who fund it have zero say in the dealings
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 2:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
Could the NHC staff walk out on the job if Proenza is not ousted?


Could they? yes, but it would be terribly unprofessional and I'm unsure of their AFGE (American Federation of Government Employees - i.e. the FedGov workers union) standing or if they are even members, some won't be. If they are contractors, they can leave at any time, but that risks their employment.

I'd say that Proenza resigns here sooner or later.
Posted By: bigtrucker at 3:03 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
ummmm i know that mike, but We the people who fund it have zero say in the dealings


That's all well and good, but you don't have crap to say about the politics in the DEA or DOD or HHS or any of the others......rendering your points moot....
Proenza and Kobe Bryant should do lunch together....they are in similar turmoil
Cosmic.......As my mom use to say.....the proof is in the pudding........I believe we have access to the archives on here.....And i am willing to bet that half the people that were on here then are not now.........And half of the people that are on here now were still in high school.......theres nothing wrong with that...but when i get some time i will visit the archives and bring back some quotes....Maybe even from you cosmicevents.......lol
yea blue. that was mine first here in CT. Slept out for the show and was first in line!!!! what a way to start my concert scene.
Now its all about money
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 2:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
Could the NHC staff walk out on the job if Proenza is not ousted?


Actually, no federal employees are not allowed to strike and in fact it is against the law for federal employees to strike. This came about when postal workers went on strike in the early 1980s when Reagan was in office.
Patrap, you don't think Chris Landsea's and William Grey's politics don't affect their forecasting(ie global warming effects on hurricanes)? I think they have an agenda that is mixed with their science just as I'm sure it is in on the other side. Everything today has become polarized and science is now used to justify agendas. In fact, it is naive to think it hasn't always been this way.
anyone have any thought on the year 2012?if so read the article in my blog and post your thoughts...Thanks..
Proenza has said this morning that he is not going to resign.
Crownwx, not only that but look what Reagan did to the Air Traffic controllers. I work at Miami Wx observatory. We work under a government contractor that changes every three to four years mostly fly-by night scammers who bounce checks ( Nantom, Ed Tech). We are unionized but since we are under an FAA contract, we cannot strike. There is a no walk out clause in the government contract.
i guess your right mike, ive been mooted all the time.. LOL I guess what Im trying to say is i wish our money was better spent on saving lives than a few remarks made about an aging satellite that far exceeded its life span
Posted By: nash28 at 3:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
Proenza has said this morning that he is not going to resign.


So did Nixon :-D
They dont have the NHC seat. Those guys are not bound to the public trust. The mutiny at the NHC is over an internal struggle.It could have been handled there..not in a blog forum.Not in the public eyes.
The damage is done to the Public trust for this season.Regardless if Bill stays or goes.

The Public trust is not ..was not..and continues not to be the focus as it should. Instead. We have a glitzie Insider Edition of the NHC.

Sad.dad days...

Posted By: bigtrucker at 3:19 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
i guess your right mike, ive been mooted all the time.. LOL I guess what Im trying to say is i wish our money was better spent on saving lives than a few remarks made about an agimg satellite that far exceeded its life span


Now there I agree with you. This leads me back to what I said a couple days ago - mainly, I said Proenza wasn't the person certain elements of NHC wanted to lead them.

This happens every once in a while, but I've not really ever seen it public like this. Normally these things tend to stay internal.
another tropical low is emerging off Verde

Wow everyone is caught up in the Proenza fiasco that we forgot to post the TWO. Well here it is

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



It got way out of hand when NOAA sent him a Letter of Reprimand. Granted, he showed no real tact in dealing with the issue, but he was new to the job and NOAA could have handled it differently. By them keeping the issue in the limelight they made matters worse...and now it has the smell of politics.
And Pat is right. This never should have made the public domain. It should have been an internal affair.
more of a STINK,..than a smell in my nostrils..
way I see it pat,the weather news sadly is politics right now and the NHC is center stage of a political takeover..its all about power..Just like it was all power plays from every government level that left most of our gulf coast in turmoil after Katrina..

WU is reporting the news you may not see on the national news ,none really are journalist here so maybe thats why their is a bias??..Take the news and use your own mind and disregard their personal opinion...Then again I understand that maybe strangers don't see or read everyday as we do so I do see your point...
104. mobal
The Hurricane Center appears to be in the middle of a storm.
Shes naked like 96L Visible
Proenza's argument in favor of a Quickscat replacement probably was flawed; but I've seen flawed arguments in science before. The usual response is merely to point out the flaws in the argument and to present a counterargument, not to call for the person to resign or to be fired. What has he done to provoke everyone to turn on him like this? Obviously, there is more to this than merely a dispute over the validity of the science. Would the forecasters have been so hasty to turn on one of their own, promoted from within?
but whatever happen to freedom of speech in this case i mean is that no longer able to be used without someone screaming at you geez what will the world come to next
very correct rocket. People need to use the news as an outlet than form their own opinions. otherwise your a puppet to the media
poor Proenza
not to call for the person to resign or to be fired.

Tell that to Keith Olberman
for once i think i agree misterperfect
I don't see any reason to think Dr Masters has an axe to grind. He's playing it as fair as he can. But it's a little strange to see his quotes from this blog being used in the newspapers and maybe at some point by people who are involved or investigating. There's no way yet any of us can know which side's right.
i just think this whole thing is stupid and proenza should stay and we see how it goes
I don't really care about this BS. This shouldn't be happening during hurricane season. I want my home, family, and everyone else in harms way looked after and protected.

Could this not have waited until December????
Misterperfect, you almost got me going in defense of Olbermann but then that would start a political storm on this board which I would rather observe from afar.
exactly
I agree 27windows. Figures the debate starts heating up as the hurricane season does.
i dunno, Dr. Masters seems very fired up about this whole fiasco.And i cant figire out why.
well Im outta here, have a good day, guys
u know it seems they are doing it for the attention in some way i dont know ponder that for a minute

Could this not have waited until December????



well..if we agree..that this is political...and if we think about it under that light..then no..it couldn't...as....in december...not as many people would care about the NHC.....no tropical threat..all attentioned tuned elswhere
Posted By: StormW at 11:37 AM EDT on July 06, 2007.

Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 3:35 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

I agree 27windows. Figures the debate starts heating up as the hurricane season does.

That's OK...I'm here! (LOL)!!!!!!!! (just kidding).



LOL
Dear Max Mayfield,

Enjoying retirement? SUPERMAN, IF YOU CAN HEAR ME, WE NEED YOUR HELP!!
Posted By: ricderr at 11:37 AM EDT on July 06, 2007.


Could this not have waited until December????


well..if we agree..that this is political...and if we think about it under that light..then no..it couldn't...as....in december...not as many people would care about the NHC.....no tropical threat..all attentioned tuned elswhere


exactly because the attention it is getting
WPB: Don't you mean 97L. I am a little supprised there is not more discussion on this. Yes a lot of shear but there is good circulation and a lot of mositure.
I don't know what Dr. Masters' political leanings are but I do remember a political banner on this site a few days ago that said stop McCain Feingold I believe. I don't see any banners now and I hope he keeps it that way.
Wish I could be fly on the wall at NHC...Is this bascially a continuation of the earlier debate, in the Spring, about bringing NHC more "into the fold" of NWS, as opposed to being relatively independent? If Proenza is a "company man" aligned with NWS, this would probabably not sit well with the regular staffers and scientists who certainly don't give a hoot about politics. They are basically "on-strike" at the begining of the hurricane season; not good for all of us and I wonder if this would have blown up now if we had a more active season in progress (crisis seems to bring scientists together)...
WPB: Don't you mean 97L. I am a little supprised there is not more discussion on this. Yes a lot of shear but there is good circulation and a lot of mositure.

I meant that 96L is a naked swirl and the moisture for the Florida blob is to the south making it a naked swirl. Yes there is moisture with this one.
Mayfield retired because he said no one was listening. Gov't? Us? Both?
10 bucks for no-ads

Priceless...
Posted By: weatherboyfsu at 3:08 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Cosmic.......As my mom use to say.....the proof is in the pudding........I believe we have access to the archives on here.....And i am willing to bet that half the people that were on here then are not now.........And half of the people that are on here now were still in high school.......theres nothing wrong with that...but when i get some time i will visit the archives and bring back some quotes....Maybe even from you cosmicevents.......lol
.
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You won't find any predictions from me. I don't know enough about meteorology to make any predictions. I post about other issues. Morals, ethics, goverment, etc., as they relate to tropical weather events. The one and only prediction that I ever made was where Katrina would hit in Florida. I predicted, based on folly, that it would hit North Miami Beach, under the reasoning that there are lots of Russians living there and Katrina is a Russian name. And that prediction turned out right to within 2 miles 2 days out! Ha! But reading the archives from that time would be fun. I've done it, and I encourage all to spend some time reading them. Especially from the time Katrina was a struggling TD to the days after Katrina hit New Orleans. They make for much more interesting reading than the blogs right now, especially with the tropics thankfully so quiet.
134. jeans
Dr. Masters was also quoted in the Orlando Sentinel this morning.
so anyone think we are going to have any storms soon...i am tired of politics..just my opion....
I'm outside looking in.....

Frankly, the country can afford another satelite and getting one on the books now is the prudent thing to do.

Yes, it is a political fight to get funding for the satelites. And yes, politics isn't fair nor is it a scientific process.

The nation will fight for the huricane hunters. There will be a public outcry should that program ever be threatened. Whoever thinks to shut this program down should be throw in jail along with the person who invented the outsourcing customer service to far flung countries.

You guys can fight on two fronts and not have to choose which one to fight or which has priority. You can chew gum and walk at the same time, can't you? You guys deserve and the public will continue to benefit of having both tools.

Pencil whipping the director publicly about where the 16% came from should be left in the confines of a conference. Let the peer review do it tactfully. We could care less in the public: the 16% and arguments about is as exciting or as compelling as the new irs tax law. But, the last satelite? on its last trasmitter and nothing in the books, those are the alarm points and shame on you if you don't fight for getting another one. We can understand that.

The satelite is always up there 24/7. A hurricane hunter has to be scheduled.

The 23 who signed should have kept it in the family and not air it publicly. They sound like prima donnas and appeared to be way too comfortable with Max. Change happens and the old boss will different than the new boss. The situation reaks like a teenage MTV reality show.

The nation deserves better.






proenza has been talking about this ever since he became director, why is the debate heating up as the hurricane season heats up this is purely idiotic
Can't Bush commute Proenza somehow?

You won't find any predictions from me. I don't know enough about meteorology to make any predictions. I post about other issues. Morals, ethics, goverment, etc., as they relate to tropical weather events. The one and only prediction that I ever made was where Katrina would hit in Florida. I predicted, based on folly, that it would hit North Miami Beach, under the reasoning that there are lots of Russians living there and Katrina is a Russian name. And that prediction turned out right to within 2 miles 2 days out! Ha! But reading the archives from that time would be fun. I've done it, and I encourage all to spend some time reading them. Especially from the time Katrina was a struggling TD to the days after Katrina hit New Orleans. They make for much more interesting reading than the blogs right now, especially with the tropics thankfully so quiet.




Didnt have much time for reading here in New Orleans after August 29th.2005 Im glad you found it er,entertaining...

It only took 5 days for the Feds to find New Orleans...not so bad in todays context. I hear Paris Hilton is up for the NHC directors post. That should hold you to late August when the er,real entertainment starts. Enjoy your summer.
Blob Watching Department:
Is there a hint of a swirl at 8N102W?
Can't Bush commute Proenza somehow?


LMBO!!!!
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:49 AM EDT on July 06, 2007.

Can't Bush commute Proenza somehow?


LMBO!!!!


The day when pigs fly
Hurricane Center Chief: I Won't Leave
Published: 7/6/07, 11:26 AM EDT
By JOHN PAIN
MIAMI (AP) - The new director of the National Hurricane Center, under fire from staff members who wanted him ousted, said Friday that he won't resign and that the disagreements can be resolved.

Director Bill Proenza replaced Max Mayfield in January. On Thursday, 23 employees - about half his staff - urged the government to removed him immediately.

"We may have some disagreements in the philosophy of making changes at the hurricane center in the future as far as what we want for new capability, new science and technology," Proenza said in a phone interview. "Does that justify removing someone?"

The senior and front-line forecasters who called for Proenza's dismissal argue that he damaged public confidence in their ability to forecast storms and distracted the center from its work.

Proenza has publicly criticized the government for failing to provide enough funding, particularly to replace an aging weather satellite. But staff members say he is misrepresenting the satellite problem, and they worry the consequences of his campaign to replace it could hurt their forecasting abilities.

"The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake," the 23 staff members said in their letter. "The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return its focus to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in."

Proenza blamed many of the problems on a Commerce Department team sent this week to review the center's its management and organizational structure and ability to provide accurate and timely information. The team's report is due by July 20 to the department, which oversees NOAA, the hurricane center's parent agency.

Senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said Friday that the staff already tried resolving their differences internally and that the team's arrival was part of that process.

He said Proenza had misrepresented what would happen if a key satellite called QuikScat failed. It is now past its expected lifespan, and Proenza has argued that tracking forecasts could be up to 16 percent less accurate without it.

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded," Franklin said. "None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

Franklin worried that Proenza's statements would result in inferior technology hastily being substituted for QuikScat, possibly funded with money pulled from reconnaissance flights sent to investigate Atlantic storms.

"Nobody's happy about doing what we did," Franklin said. "We tried so hard not to go this route. There are costs involved, but the costs of not speaking up for the nation's hurricane program were higher in the long run."

A telephone message left for NOAA's Washington office was not immediately returned.
The damage is done to the Public trust for this season.Regardless if Bill stays or goes.

Why? We still have some of the best forecasters in the world who have done a remarkable job the last few years in forecasting these storms. And we will still have this when and if Proenza. He is the deal. The guys spoke too soon. Sometimes when you are the new kid on the block, yes I know he isnt "new". but new to the NHC. You have to take things slow. Maybe he should of waited until after the season. He made an error in judgement.
well this is fun *sighs*
I saw a pig fly at the Roger Waters concert recently.
Can't Bush commute Proenza somehow?

Nope... We want max back!

Bush and Proenza
So now there are two things to do. Either he resigns and we move on, or he appologizes for the QuikScat errors, say he was wrong, and we move on.
LOL Wsp,

Mayfield looks like he's ticked off for being ignored in that picture....That just might not be far from the truth...
Posted By: bluehaze27 at 11:53 AM EDT on July 06, 2007.

I saw a pig fly at the Roger waters concert recently.


really well then Bush has to do something o wait that might not go over well with him so i guess it will have to be at the end of times
*running under my desk incase something flys out of the screen*
By JOHN PAIN

gotta love dat handle for a writer ric..LOL
Speaking of politics and weather, whatever happened with India's misleading prediction of 03? Any fallout? There should be a separate service for the Indian Ocean north of the Equator, from the southern tip of India to the east coast of Africa. Have it based it in Karachi.
What the heck is going on in that picture sp? LOL!!!!
The handshake of doom.
New Rules of the Game:

Question funding, no problem.

Convince the government the billion dollar satellite sucks and needs an upgrade or a new one....enter Donald Trump..."Ya Fiehd"
hahaha
LMBU
Who would have thought that a satellite could cause all this trouble !.
Using bad science to prove a point is not good. Especially in a political arena. Having half your staff wanting you gone is not good. Not believing in or supporting your company spending millions in excess to throw a party is good. What about Dr Masters taking the directorship?? Let him get in there and clean it up.

That being said....this is a tropical weather blog, so I'm looking for some tropical weather. All of this rain over Florida and we've barely gotten a sprinkle here. There was a huge gully-washer 5 miles from my home the other day and we didn't see a drop.
Bad Karma..move west 5 miles
Proenza will fire his insubordinate staff and replace them with ambitious, cheap, and submissive Indian contractors over a wire from Bangalore.
There was 6 to 9 inches of rain in the Kendall, Coral Cables, Pinecrest, Perrine area of South Florida yesterday.
Pat...just my luck!! hahaha The stinking karma would follow me!
zzzzzz...

Stop this political nonsense.
I know that luck,Ladybug..Good to see ya
Sorry, a global warming report after each hurricane update would drive me insane...

LMAO
Definitely a political issue. Local 10 in Miami uses there political reporter to talk about the story. *rolls eyes and sighs*
MP - that's funny! Any ideas on this system off the east coast? Could NC Florida get some of it?
Why did the NOAA give him the job if they new he hasn't made a forecast since the 1960's and has been working with the NWS not the NHC???
it has gotten so out of hand u know i think they should have kept it private and when they have new guy then tell everyone
*shame shame*
Altestic87 said:
zzzzzz...
Stop this political nonsense.


Um... some people tend to forget this is a blog and the blog owner has decided to make this issue the latest topic. Finally people are staying on topic instead of taking over Master's blog and making it their own forum for cut-n-pasting NHC products.
Maybe cuz Brownie was busy and couldn't take the job?
Thanx, Pat....have the day off and can actually spend five minutes here. I truly can't express how much you and a few others have helped me understand the weather over the last few years.
Patrap....I didn't find the disaster of Katrina entertaining. Or the prelude to the storm, when disaster preparedness was an issue. I shouldn't have used the one word "fun" in my post. It was far from fun at the time or now. Why don't you spend some time reading the archives from this time and you'll see what I wrote then, and what others wrote. It's interesting, but not entertaining.
Maybe cuz Brownie was busy and couldn't take the job?

Wasn't that Max's assistant? They should have given him the job.
Brownie was out of nice looking shirts for the tv interviews couldn't take the job.
For better or worse, there is no way Proenza is staying. Politics and living off the public till will win the day. He's right, those forecasters ARE worried about looking like they don't support NOAA if they agree with him. It IS totally political and they are worried about their jobs.
I have ce
Posted By: kmanislander at 10:59 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Who would have thought that a satellite could cause all this trouble !.


LOL...so whats this gonna cause?



NASA is beginning to consider that 2012 might be a banner year for... something. According to one report, "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one." This would imply a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958 (around the time of the launching of Sputnik, when the Northern Lights wer sighted three times in Mexico). Assume that the Solar Max of 2012 will have a noticeable effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites, and other modern technolgies.
*wunderwomen ducks, runs up the front, hides behind the desk, and awaites with terror in her eyes*
StormW - as always...thank you. Excellent.

*going in to put on deer skin and grab drum to perform Indian rain dance*
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO we have enough rain here in Texas - make sure you rain dance for YOUR area ONLY.
hey I will join ya in that rain Dance...LOL
Patrap.....read my post again, and just take out the word "fun", which I said was the wrong word to use. There is nothing else in there, or in the archives, that would call for you to make your Paris Hilton reference about me, of all people on this board.
Emmy.....don't be so stingy....we'd love to have some of rain...family and friends in KS and OK have been flooded out of their homes. We've invited them here so that they can dry out.
*I think she can save them; o noooo dont do the danceeeeeeeeeeeeeeee*
*rain begins to pour*
Hey Auburn....do you think we'd be successful if we did the rain dance to some good ole 80's Earth Wind & Fire??? *lmao*
the Kudzu and pine trees are dieing here in Alabama...Texas is hogging up all the rain...they need to learn to share...LOL
Lady - I'm floatin out to ya with my ship -
tyler texas got hammered too last night
we're gettin it right now real good.
Yikes.
WW - thanx for that vote of confidence....Grandson is up and at 'em, so Gigi has to go for now. BBL
yes...EWF...that would bring on the rain for sure
ooops
Give it a break CE..
The Paris reference wasnt for you.
It was for humor.Have an ice cream.

Your handle isnt gender specific.
Ive made a note though ,thanx
ding ding ding
fights over guys geez
Afternoon All!

Here Comes The Rain!
Complaining of not enough 3 weeks ago, now ummmmm, ponds are close to spilling over in many areas of Palm Beach Gardens and Jupiter.
well goin for lunch bbl
politics.... sigh, that which many teenage boys dont care to discuss but it happens lol a hot stretch comin up here in s indiana.
I dont swing ww.
I respond and move on.
But the referee shirt looks good on ya !


LMBO MP!..IMUSED he was,Proenza
LOL!!! MP!
LOL MP!
do yall think if 96l makes it too the carribean it would have a chance too develope?

Let me get this right - we've got a guy (Proenza) who is a bureaucracy veteran and is sitting only 3 years from retirement or less.

He's said he won't resign. In a Federal job it's a bugger to fire someone - and I just can't see "using an unpublished report with weaker methodology than we really would like to have" as holding up as ground for termination in anything approaching the real world.

Taking the fight public makes NHC look bad more than it makes Proenza look bad - and if he decides to sit tight, he could win this one.

Most people would decide that the whole thing is far to much trouble, but he might be willing to hold out until that pension kicks in. Has anyone checked to see when that might be?

If he's a real problem (and, face it, anyone would look weaker compared to Max Mayfield) the smart move would be to promote him out of trouble until he retires and let the whole thing die quietly.

Federal jobs aren't like private jobs. It's actually very hard to force someone to leave if they don't want to.



Patrap....I'm not fighting with you. I just took afront that you would question my conscience(sp). That's ludicrous. The only reason that I post here is to try and raise the consciousness of the group, as you do. I just read your blog for the first time, and I commend you highly on it. I see that you've been here just a year. I would encourage you to go back again and read what I wrote at the time. In a nutshell, I was sickened with the calamity, and with this board.
208. IKE
Posted By: StormThug at 11:29 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
do yall think if 96l makes it too the carribean it would have a chance too develope?


I'm not convinced it's degenerated to a wave. I still see a circulation and it's heading for the lower islands.

Props to 96L for surviving it's trek across the Atlantic.
210. IKE
What's his image?


Nah - 96L has spun off its rotation and is chugging along straight line right into some very dry air. If it tapped the moisture the south and reestablished its circulation, it might have a descent chance.

Blob Watchers R Us.
212. IKE
And I'll keep on watchin it.
Anyone have an idea when the moist air will return to the caribbean?
Yeah, I love the good doctor, but even I don't think he would really qualify to be Director of NHC.

As far as firing his staff for insubordination, good luck. What's he gonna do? Call Kelly Temp Service for help?



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 1250 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS HERE
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
I have, many times read the archived words CE.Ive even sent thanks to many who did. I was online but not posting as a lurker till losing power that morning. Yours were of great concern. Thanks

And in my correspondence with Jeff Masters a few times..my first was to thank Him for his timely and worriesome entries that weekend that saved hundreds if not thousands of lives.

As a site we can do much for those in harms way. And we should...always have that as a motivator. When all else gets muddled.
218. IKE
There's been nothing but issues at the NHC all year. I doubt it's gonna stop anytime soon. Quikscat is nice to have...but the moneys being poured into Iraq.
219. CJ5
I still do not see anything from the staffers that want Bill gone that disporves anything he said and I see no justification from them or Dr. Masters other than this QuickSat issue. It seems Dr. Masters is close enough to the situation to be quoted in the media so he must be "in the know" and since this is his blog what information does he have the should concern us about Bill P's abilities?

I see no reason but the QuickSat issue and based on what I understand it was launched in 99 to great fanfare and everyone agreed it will successfully help forcasters. It has now past its useful life and could fail at any moment. Proenza pushes the issue of a replacement and his staff turns on him? Now they all want to say QuickSat isn't that important. Which is it?

Dr. Masters help us understand the rest of the story.
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 2:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
Could the NHC staff walk out on the job if Proenza is not ousted?


No not even if they could.They became NHC forecasters for the purpose of saving lives through forecasts,and not one of them would forego that due to an internal argument.
221. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:44 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Ike Pat always puts up a bugged eye image with the caption "oh my god it has a circulation and its heading west"


Agree...as long as I see a spin and it's heading west...I'll keep checkin up on it...I want to see where it winds up. The high is gonna build in across the SE USA and with the GFS showing a train of moisture coming up from the ITCZ...something could get going and take my mind off of the cat 4 brewing around Coral Gables!
Look, QuickScat is not that important when you are talking about a landfalling hurricane.

It is really used for surface wind reading out in the Atlantic, typically where HH's do not fly. Once you have the hunters able to task a system, QuickScat is useless. I will take dropsonde data ANY DAY over a satellite pass, which more often than not misses the damn thing anyways.
223. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 11:49 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Look, QuickScat is not that important when you are talking about a landfalling hurricane.

It is really used for surface wind reading out in the Atlantic, typically where HH's do not fly. Once you have the hunters able to task a system, QuickScat is useless.


I understand that...but it's bull hockey that OUR government can't fund a replacement for it.
Right nash...Bill knew that,and instead of stating the honest facts made it seem like it would be a major loss.
Thank you Patrap....A safe season to you, and everyone else. I'm going back into lurk mode. I'll be back as events warrant.
226. IKE
I don't think it's a major loss...but it helps to have it.
227. CJ5
Posted By: IKE at 11:45 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
There's been nothing but issues at the NHC all year. I doubt it's gonna stop anytime soon. Quikscat is nice to have...but the moneys being poured into Iraq.


There were no plans to replace QS before the war what makes you think that is what is holding it up now?
EPAC action Link
thanks for the new update. read all about it in Sun Sentienal this morning. This is a mess now at that place and most of it is political.
The EPAC action and lack of ATL action will be shifting very soon. Once the downward pulse of the MJO moves out of here and the upward pulse shifts from the EPAC over here, conditions will reverse.
Anyone have an idea when the moist air will return to the caribbean?

I've started boiling water in a kettle to try to revive 96L.
233. IKE
There were no plans to replace QS before the war what makes you think that is what is holding it up now?

They should have thought about it earlier then. Were spending billions a month in Iraq...certainly that doesn't help.

Hey all at work here on US 19. So whats up with 96l err the thuderstorms out there. Also the latest on the rain off the Florida Coast?
Well guys..believe it or not, from here on out it is about suppression of data, and availability of info to the public.
237. IKE
The committee is doubtful this administration will ever show the leadership and bold thinking required to address the true needs of our planets oceans and atmosphere, the committee report says. The report also expresses doubt about whether the administration will commit to timely bud

I have about zero faith in this administration.
Here we go again with the politics.

Please remember folks that quite frequently there are American Military personell based in many remote areas of the world that can be affected by weather systems that Quikscat would help analyze as well. It is not only the continental USA where H/H aircraft are available that needs to be considered here.Also please remember the offshore US interests.(Guam,Hawaii etc)where H/H aircraft may not be available.(Just my 2 cents.)
hello. psbl storms in the epac? also for those wondering storms rarley form in july even in active years 05 being one of the exceptions.
"Posted By: StormHype at 8:33 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.

In the face of a mutiny, Proenza should consider firing his whole staff then replace them with offshored forecasters from India. They're highly skilled and trained, work all hours of the day, and no expensive govt pension or benefit packages to worry about. That's the way the majority of the US corporate technology industry would handle it. Sorry to say that, but it's the rule of day in current times."


And, when we've farmed out the NHC to India, we can be assured that only those countries we're friendly with will get warnings - isn't that what they did to Pakistan?
Any chance the Florida/Bahamas disturbance will clear out by Monday? A completely different satellite, Dawn, is scheduled to launch on July 9 and that spacecraft could really use some good luck, after having a number of setbacks that nearly caused it to be canceled and recently forced a 3-week launch delay. If Dawn doesn't launch by Tuesday, IIRC, the launch will be delayed until September...

Dawn, for the uninitiated, is a mission to two of the largest asteroids, Ceres and Vesta.
wow...that was pointless...:)
very
real federal employees are very easy to remove. if the powers that be want them out quickly, they will be booted out quickly. it's one of the reasons why many whistleblowers don't utter a peep until they retire. even the supreme court has ruled against whistleblowers - they can be fired even if they whistleblow about criminal or illegal acts. contrary to popular belief, they are not truly protected.

if the people in the hurricane center truly did their job, they would have raised holy hell about the blowing up the levies in new orleans during hurricane katrina and if justice got served, there would likely be mass murder indictments against the perpetrators

where was proenza and his staff raising holy hell about this. did they really believe a category 3 hurricane, 30 miles from new orleans could destroy a concrete levy

the cesspool goes even deeper than that. they figured out how to dissipate hurricanes back in the 1960s but funding was cut for that. it doesn't take much to figure out that it was turned into a black project with the goal of strengthening and guiding hurricanes like weapons ... the subject of covert weather control technology is another topic





Good afternoon...

Its good bye to our popular NHC director i think its only a matter of time now.Adrian
Absofreakinlutely not!!!! I am sick and tired of farming everything out to India, or Busted Whistle New Dehli, etc.... You can't even make a reservation on U.S. AIR without needing a translator to understand the person on the other end. This is America. Keep it American.

Sorry, but no.
oh god....let's bash foreign nationalities now in the name of american patriotism
So Ric, you have no problem farming out American jobs to other countries in the name of saving a buck?

Sorry, I do.
Gahndr, Have you been following the Main blog today?.. Man..the NHC thing is berry,berry bad Id say.

6
in some situations.....dang skippy i do nash...but i don't need to base my reasoning over a degrading sterotype
Using the minus sign on the right ..

Priceless..LOL
JP- I know the NHC isn't getting farmed out. Just making a point about Proenza firing those who spoke out would be completely asinine. Who would he replace them with?

So, in a way, he is stuck between a rock and hard place.

your right .. Mayfield

but proenza had to know something about the suspicious events of katrina


Trust me there is something much more deeper to all that is going at the NHC its just not made public.
Whatever
267. drmg
I have a Ph.D. in meteorology, and hopefully can put some of the NHC situation in perspective.

1) The quantitative usefullness of QuikScat has been overstated by the director, BUT ITS STILL ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT SATELLITES. It helps identify new disturbances, finds genesis cases earlier, allows forecasters to identify the extent of gale force winds, and often is the only surface wind information when there is no reconnaissance flight. The whole satellite situation should be very embarrassing to NOAA administrators, and someone needs to be fired at that level.

2) The director was trying to make a point about the lack of funding for hurricane research, and the incredible inability of the government to replace the satellite with at least a satellite of similar quality, not a degraded ability. The harsh NOAA letters, and the surprise investigation, are both unprecedented and probably politically-motivated.

3) The hurricane staff has overreacted. Obviously, there are some personal issues here that goes beyond the controversy over QuikScat. Since I don't know the issues, I can't comment, and reporters need to ask the staff. If their main reason is only a perceived "lost of confidence by the general public," that is silly, and they should be reprimanded or fired.

4) For those who think the skill will diminish, Jeff is right --- the track forecasts will still be just as good. There is a lot of other satellite and recon data used in the models, with more advanced data assimilation skills. The forecasting ability is not in jeopardy. The common sense judgment of NOAA, and forecasters, and perhaps the director, is......
I don't think anyone said he was firing his staff. I think it was just a natural question given the fact the he now knows most of the people that report to him want him gone...

Most people would be out on their asses if their boss found that out.
Ahhh..some clarity by a Man in the buiss.Thanks for the post.very informative and to the point. drmg
271. IKE
We need a TD or a TS in the Atlantic to change the course of this blog.

A lot of us are pissed at something.....right now the government is on the list.

You can argue about it til whenever..me included.
Pardon the weather pun, but I think this will all blow over soon enough, and people will get back to business.
274. IKE
After Katrina...there should have been no doubt about replacing Quikscat. It's needed.
actually jp...didn't bill bring it up in more than one interview..and was fired off a memo stating that he needed approval to talk to the press?


>Yeah, the leeves were purposely blown up by our government,

you are correct. this is what the evidence would point to

>because as we all know, mother nature COULDN'T have POSSIBLY caused that!!

technically speaking, anything is possibility but what is the most probable






This whole mess is now in a damage control mode. I bet Max is fit to be tied about the crap that has infiltrated the center he ran with so much integrity for many years.
Boy, conspiracy theorists abound.....

The NHC will be fine with or without quikscat...There ability to put out great forcast will always be there in my opinion.

Dont get me wrong its a great tool but if it fails the NHC iam sure will take that extra step to continue doing a great job.
281. IKE
Posted By: prioris at 12:40 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.


>Yeah, the leeves were purposely blown up by our government,

you are correct. this is what the evidence would point to


That's waaay over the edge. That's like saying the planes didn't take down the towers.

Think I'll step away from my computer for a break.
Yeah Ike, I thought about saying that, but didn't want to open up another black hole of seething anger...

Break is good.
Bill Proenza, who took the helm of the National Hurricane Center this year, received a letter of reprimand over his public criticism of the federal government spending $4 million on an image-building campaign for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration while at the same time cutting funding for hurricane research.

The letter was given to the Herald-Tribune by a source who requested anonymity.


jp......actually...his bosses don't agree with you..and also note...the article doesn't state..who...or from where..their source was..just that it was anonomous

blowing up the levies would require more than a few people to be involved so yes, there would be a probably conspiracy with many people involved. believe it or not, one can find the word - conspiracy - in federal and state criminal statutes

oooopps, must've hit the wrong link button...thought this was a weather blog!!!!

uuuummmm, anyone notice the lil buzzsaw se of Barbados? Still pluggin' and chuggin'...
Prioris- My point is that I cannot believe that YOU actually believe our government was/is behind Hurricane Katrina and the levees. Hey, I'm all for fiction and fantasy, but not when it comes to the real world. No one purposely planted explosives, created and controlled Hurricane Katrina and then blew up a freakin' wall.
The first I heard of the underminding of public trust was on a cable "news" network and they have been pounding that message for days now.

we should consider firing the media and letting the NHC work out their own problems
Oh yeah. We're all covering up the mass murders that the Bush Administration commited.

Let me ask you this.... If it were a John Kerry administration, would you still say the same thing regarding Katrina?
Link

there's the story JP
The levees broke because of incredible INCOMPETENCE !!!
oooopps, must've hit the wrong link button...thought this was a weather blog!!!!

lol Thats what I thought. Whats with the Katrina conspiracy. Also wasn't weakening Hurricanes banned because it made a hurricane go on an erratic path??
296. IKE
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 12:50 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
oooopps, must've hit the wrong link button...thought this was a weather blog!!!!

uuuummmm, anyone notice the lil buzzsawd se of Barbado? Still pluggin' and chuggin'...


I'm watchin it.
The Levees were a disaster waiting to happen. It just took the wrong storm to finally hit the way it did, and bingo. Trouble.
The grass I put down a month ago has died. I blame it on Global Warming....
Whoo hoo, I have internet after 3 miserable days. Lightning came in wireless distribution antenna @ resort?? and fried router, @ least router was fried, we were without elec for over 6 hr. too. Fun fun.
300. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 12:55 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
The Levees were a disaster waiting to happen. It just took the wrong storm to finally hit the way it did, and bingo. Trouble.


Steve Lyons/John Hope on TWC had been talking about a possible Katrina scenario and it played out.
good job now we've made it a demo and repub thing.........this is better than a hurricane.....flames abound
I blame the extreme headache I now have on Global Idiocy.

I think I'll write and publish a paper in the "Journal of Headaches"
Well, Ric... You know damn well that Prioris is blaming Republicans. I didn't make it into anything. Just calling him out.
the levees broke because katrinas surge was just too much and they gave way.
Yes they did Thug. Amazing what a little common sense will do:-)

really nash?.......he didn't say anything remotely directed that way..you did..and you may be to assclownish to see it nash
Posted By: nash28 at 5:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
I blame the extreme headache I now have on Global Idiocy.


Moonlight <---------agrees with Nash!


...96L just keeps churning west. It may not beat the shear and other factors; but, I think it's got an attitude for dry air/dust and is gonna whip it!!!
dang jp..must i do it all.......top left corner...serving southwest florida...now..if you google that article...you'll find many other articles documenting the same thing..and they all look like rewrites of the AP article
>Prioris said...
Yeah, the leeves were purposely blown up by our government, you are correct. this is what the evidence would point to


I guess you bought into Spike Lee's video propaganda hoax too huh? There was no conspiracy. I know the guy who shot all the downtown video in NOLA during landfall of Katrina and he had shot the video of guy coming up to the camera saying he just jumped out the window of his second story apartment cause of the rising water cause the levy just broke. This was at 8:30am. Lee used this clip in his movie claiming it was at 3:30pm just after people claim they heard explosions. Lee created a hoax. A real conspiracy would have included a plan to blow up the superdome and then the astrodome. It didn't happen, but some wish it would have after seeing the video of guy at the Astrodome saying the govt should give him a $20K gift card to Walmart.
Really Ric... Well, considering the gov't in power when Katrina happened was Republican, AND considering he believes the levees were NOT destroyed by Katrina, how is my statement wrong?

More to the point, how is the question I asked him wrong? If you are going to make a statement like he did, then you'd better expect some heat.


blowing up the levies and manufacturing events is pretty much normal for governments to do. the government controlled media maintains the fiction.

most people get the kind of government they deserve

Posted By: prioris at 6:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.


blowing up the levies and manufacturing events is pretty much normal for governments to do. the government controlled media maintains the fiction.

most people get the kind of government they deserve



Need I say more Ric?
Saying the levees were blow up intentionally is about the stupidest f-in thing I've ever heard. Almost as stupid as saying "they" figured out how to dissipate hurricanes in the 60s but stopped funding for it. Why is anyone taking this seriously?
lemme get mo popcorn and another Dr. Pepper ,this is good.

7

we should consider firing the media ...

best Idea I have heard yet since they are now owned by the higest bidder for whats news worthy
nash...same as you comments concering jobs and inians.....he deserves the heat...he's wrong..and should be called to task for it...taking it and making it a demo or republican thing...makes you look bad..shows your biasses
Prioris...go see a therapist!!! You need help.


Can we please get back to the weather!!!

blowing up the levies and manufacturing events is pretty much normal for governments to do. the government controlled media maintains the fiction.

most people get the kind of government they deserve


What the heck??? So how come the government didn't blow up the levees around Lake O during Hurricane Wilma????
Not even a close comparison, but whatever Ric. I'm done with it.
They didn't stop seeding because of lack of funding, it was because of lack of hurricanes.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:42 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
The NHC will be fine with or without quikscat...There ability to put out great forcast will always be there in my opinion.

Dont get me wrong its a great tool but if it fails the NHC iam sure will take that extra step to continue doing a great job.

Yes Adrain well said!
The Corps insists on bisecting solid earth levees with sheet piling and then building a concrete wall on top--but They don't make the sheet piles long enough--then the levees begin to leak around the piles--it is happening now along the MRGO
It's an engineering thing, not political--

We had rain yesterday and will get some today from the west (Texas)--is this the blob that was in Campeche?
WOW...how bout that weather!
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Trust me there is something much more deeper to all that is going at the NHC its just not made public.


Exactly what I've been saying...there's more to this than just the quikscat.
the sad reality is that new orleans is still very much at risk for for another hurricane landfall and flooding any areas below sealevel. this will never change unless they raise the area above sealevel. the government is not responsible for the laws of physics.

>The Levees were a disaster waiting to happen.

after you sweep that criminal act under the rug

i wonder why they never wheeled out the technology to dissipate hurricanes in all these decades since it did work.

you think the government wants to protect the public against hurricanes - NOT

government shares only part of the blame. most of the blame is the public themselves who decide not being an informed citizen of the USA ( or is that the North American Union now ) and caring about human life is important. For most americans, living like mindless sheep is really what they desire.









Trust me there is something much more deeper to all that is going at the NHC its just not made public.

Kris--Ya think it is related to the apparent desire of NOAA to restructure and incorporate the NWS and NHC into the NOAA "home" and budget world?
baaaa baaaaaaa
Please everyone welcome Storyteller Prioris!!!!

Try the veal.
Hello everyone. I have been lurking here for a few years, and have finally decided to join. It was prioris' comments that ticked me off. But you have all said the right things.
I live and work in east central Florida. I have been keenly interested and watchful of weather since I began surfing some 37 years ago. I am no expert, not schooled in it. But I have experienced numerous hurricanes, starting with Donna when I was a child living in Tampa.
Just want to thank all of you, or at least most of you with insight and knowledge, for the amount of info you've shared these past few years.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:12 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
No they stopped seeding because it wasnt working and because it costs alot of money to do any type of approach to stop hurricanes, now it may work for a small amount of rain,

Do you realize the materials that would be needed to seed out a large hurricane and how much all that would cost?


...uuuummm, wasn't the last Katrina recovery bill $80,000,000,000 or close? Not to mention all of the private, insurance monies spent.
So, how much would this seeding cost? Might be worth a try again!!!
The controversy at the NHC seems to have gone well beyond the issue(s) that started it and I wonder why, in the first instance, the Director thought this was a fight that could be won.

If one is not at the top of the food chain then you need to be real careful how much noise you make thrashing around .
Levee with repair...Kinda

Link
It's called "myth". There is not ONE SHRED of EVIDENCE showing MAN can STOP MOTHER NATURE.

I think she's a little more crafty than we will ever be.
the sad reality is that new orleans is still very much at risk for for another hurricane landfall and flooding any areas below sealevel. this will never change unless they raise the area above sealevel. the government is not responsible for the laws of physics.


This would be less of a concern if it had not been at least 50 years of neglect of the delta and the marsh that had been a buffer against the storm surge and put New Orleans 100 miles from the coast
Try the veal.


Sorry, the veal was blown up by the government. May I suggest a nice plate of bulls***. Tangerine wine perhaps?

Fouchon,La 20ft surge area...
Link
Thanks for the laugh there MP. Much obliged:-)
There is not ONE SHRED of EVIDENCE showing MAN can STOP MOTHER NATURE.

I think she's a little more crafty than we will ever be.


Tell that to Al Gore.

i wonder why they never wheeled out the technology to dissipate hurricanes in all these decades since it did work.

you think the government wants to protect the public against hurricanes - NOT


Is this Harry Belafonte or someone else who dropped out of school at the 5th grade? Next you'll be saying we should have dropped nukes on Katrina in the Gulf to weaken it. Are you really such an ignoramus?
Only Half of the city is below sea-level 54% is above..and has never flooded. first the Facts folks. Like the Vieux Caree (French quarter,)..Uptown..Audobun Ridge..too..
Next you'll be saying we should have dropped nukes on Katrina in the Gulf to weaken it.

Well that would be hard since the weapons needed were in Iraq...somewhere
I have written our little 96L off many times. I still do but it looks as if it wants to continue to hang in there for a bit longer.

The little train that could....
Seeding hurt's the oceans over time also. But the government does not care about that do they.
Oh God no GS, not that word.

It's like Candyman. Say it three times, you know who will appear and beat us to death with his theory.
Kris--Ya think it is related to the apparent desire of NOAA to restructure and incorporate the NWS and NHC into the NOAA "home" and budget world?

All I know is that everything was ok for YEARS under Mayfield.We've had Bill for 6 months and everything's in turmoil.NOAA's the same,the forecasters are the same,but the director's different,and now everything's messed up.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:28 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
mlc the whole point is the seeding didnt work, all it did was add even more instability to system and the convection was only gone for a short amount of time, which means you need hundreds of planes to seed a hurricane constantly, that isnt realistic


Understand, Jp...but, figures closer to $100 billion??? You can fly a bunch of airplanes for that figure.

Most people have NO comprehension of how much a billion is -- If one spent a dollar every second, of every minute, of every hour, of every day...how long do you think it would take just to spend ONE billion dollars?

...answer in five posts from now...lol
It ain't hard to figure out who should go.
11,574 days moonlightcowboy.
31 years.
Kris is right, about 32 years!!!! Now imagine, 100 billion....yep, a bunch of planes could fly at that price!!!

...a bunch of things could make a difference with that kind of budget...research, experiments, etc....all at the cost of one (Katrina) storm, not to mention 4 or 5 landfalling canes.
If one spent a dollar every second, of every minute, of every hour, of every day...

31.7 Years

100 Billion = 3,170 Years

Dont worry Jesus you have only 1,163 years to go!
Hey Folks. I just got a letter from a mole who has some inside scoop about the debacle going on over at the National Hurricane Center. I've posted it to my blog. Check it out here.

Margaret Saizan
Beyond Katrina: The Voice of Hurricane & Disaster Recovery
www.hurricane-katrina.org
Now if only I could make 1 dollar each second, of every minute, of every hour, of every day... I'd be a billionaire in time to retire...
So, how much would a new and improved quikSCAT cost again?

NASA buys $19 million Russian toilet system

CAPE CANAVERAL -- (AP) -- In space, a loo costs a lot.

NASA has agreed to pay $19 million for a Russian-built toilet system for the International Space Station. The figure may sound astronomical for a toilet in space, but NASA officials said it was cheaper than building their own.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 6:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
It ain't hard to figure out who should go.


...yep, exactly -- the lot of them!!! All the way up to C. Hill. Privatize it, award a prize for development...anything beats this kind of crap we're having to listen to and bare the results of...really!!!
367. IKE
96L...the survivor...heading for Barbados...batten down the hatches.

New convection firing to its south side.
I'm sorry to see Mr. Proenza go. I thought he took a very bold step for the improvement of his organization. I think he was also implying that his "bosses" were a bit redundant and wasting money (bureaucratic waste).
Proenza definitely forgot about the 'Cut your bosses off at the knees and you'll be axed' rule.
NASA buys $19 million Russian toilet system

CAPE CANAVERAL -- (AP) -- In space, a loo costs a lot.

NASA has agreed to pay $19 million for a Russian-built toilet system for the International Space Station. The figure may sound astronomical for a toilet in space, but NASA officials said it was cheaper than building their own.



NASA can't build a toilet for less than 19 million...LOL,and we're sending these morons into space?
One last act..to resign is all that is left. The pangs have passed. Its time to move on . With the Public best served..by the resignation.A poisoned atmosphere cannot be tolerated.
Hello everyone.......

I went back to the Archives of katrina and found this....Really interesting stuff that all of you should go back and read....This is just a sample just a few days before the most deadly Hurricane to hit the US officially formed.




Posted By: caneforecaster at 6:42 PM GMT on August 22, 2005.

mybahamas- what is interesting is that several models are now developing big things out of the former TD 10...albeit after it reaches Florida. The NOGAPS and CMC explode a storm just off southwest Florida and move it WNW across the Gulf. The Euro and GFS also indicate the same feature, as does the UKMET. Given the water temps in the Gulf, should be interesting to see how this evolves...
Posted By: StormJunkie at 6:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2005.

What about the front off of the carolina coast? What are the chances of this developing and where would it go?
Posted By: CosmicEvents at 6:45 PM GMT on August 22, 2005.

Cane...do you have the links for these models? If it's so why do you suppose that Dr. Jeff hasn't brought this to our attention?
where is the blob east of fla going to go ?
Well - another turn on the QuickSCAT debate. A quote from Dr. Master's in another article.

"If we rush into this and immediately get a new QuikSCAT satellite with existing technology, were really missing out on what we hope to be able to do with the next generation."


http://www.gcn.com/online/vol1_no1/44624-1.html
Proenza is going nowhere, unless I missed some major breaking news regarding a resignation/firing in the last 10 minutes...
Can Thunder be measured in intensity ?

I took the percussion waves from a boomer as I opened my garage yesterday, I stood there motionless for about 10 seconds just in awe of the sound & the waves that shot through me...
380. IKE
Then half of the staff may be gone. He's probably gotta go.
Very interesting stuff for everyone to learn with Katrina because the initial depression had a terrible time hanging on just like another area that we have at the moment. Just a little later in the season. Things change minute to minute. Look at the people that were on there including yours truly.....Some of the battles that we had on there....Wait until hurricane season gets really going.....they all will come out of the wood work......lol
CJ5, thank you.
None of those guys are going to leave their gravy jobs.........They can talk all they want..... There is no job that compares to that one....Dont let the door hit them on the______ on the way out. I know plenty of people who jump all over an opportunity to work at NHC........... ME!!!!!!!!!!!!
apparently this thing doesn't know when to quit
appears that the NHC ran their models on it again
Drakoen... what is wrong with you???? Don't you know this is a politics blog????
Posted By: Dodabear at 7:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Drakoen... what is wrong with you???? Don't you know this is a politics blog????


to much of a politics blog. Trying to change the subject.
I wish you well.
Did somebody say Global Warming?

Researchers: Greenland really was green!

Link
392. IKE
Posted By: weatherboyfsu at 1:57 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
None of those guys are going to leave their gravy jobs.........They can talk all they want..... There is no job that compares to that one....Dont let the door hit them on the______ on the way out. I know plenty of people who jump all over an opportunity to work at NHC........... ME!!!!!!!!!!!!


Go for it. I wish you well...somebodies leaving the NHC....

Another quote:

"I'm still head of the National Hurricane Center. That's what I was told by the head of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) this morning."

-- Bill Proenza

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/state/epaper/2007/07/06/m1a_PROENZA_0706.html

Thats sounds like the QB who says "I just talked to the coach and I'm still the starter".Than he gets traded 4 hours later.
396. IKE
Posted By: sfranz at 2:07 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.

Another quote:

"I'm still head of the National Hurricane Center. That's what I was told by the head of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) this morning."

-- Bill Proenza


That should work out just fine. Half of the 49 employees want you gone. This should be a monumental season!...(sarcasm)
Posted By: hurricanehunter93 at 7:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Drakoen have you heard about 94 and 95 visit my website it will have more on both


yea but it looks like they will move away from land
398. RL3AO
1
From accuweather:

Greenland DNA offers Clue to Global Warming
The world's oldest DNA found at the bottom of a 2 kilometer thick ice sheet in Greenland might offer some clues to the causes of global warming. An international study which was published in the journal "Science" was co-written by University of Alberta Glaciologist Dr. Martin Sharp. The material, which was made up of tree, plant and insect DNA suggested that the average temperature in the boreal forests of southern Greenland between 450 and 900 thousand years ago was 10 celsius (50 F) in the summer and -17 celsius (1 F) in the winter. On the ice surface today, the average summer temperature is -8 celsius (18 F) and -30 celsius (-22 F) for the winter. In the article from CTV News, Dr. Sharp theorizes from the research that natural processes can and do produce climate change, perhaps big enough to produce effects similar to those that are widely predicted as a result of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW/ human induced global warming), though, he cannot prove it.

94EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-92N-1044W


95EINVEST.20kts-NAmb-85N-1210W


Drakoen: Is the picture u posted the one the was calling 96l? I thought it dissapeared.
402. IKE
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 2:14 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Drakoen: Is the picture u posted the one the was calling 96l? I thought it dissapeared.


It still has a circulation...near 10.8N,55.5W...or I think it has one...moving west toward the lower islands..Barbados and others.

Congress getting involved:

Today was supposed to be a day off for Bill Proenza. Instead, the beleaguered director of the National Hurricane Center met today with a congressional delegation, just feet away from center staff, many of whom have publicly called for his departure.

U.S. Reps. Ron Klein, D-Boca Raton, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Pembroke Pines, wrote NOAA's parent, the Commerce Department, on Tuesday, wondering if the surprise visits were a way of pressuring Proenza and asking why they couldn't have been done after the season.

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson "plans to address the hurricane center and its needs" as early as next week in Senate Commerce Committee hearings on QuikSCAT, spokesman Bryan Gulley said Thursday.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/state/epaper/2007/07/06/m1a_PROENZA_0706.html



Its still there moving to the WNW.
Well I'll be a hamster on a wheel with a shark biting my tail.. That 96L still has something left in it.

In the last few frames it's really made a turn north-west.

The little low that could
It looks like the pacific is firing up. Are we gonna have a season agian like 2006? Or is it to early to tell. I here some say there isn't gonna be a season and some say it's gonna be a bad one. But how is the season shaping up? I the BH setting up like last years did? I am just wondering if someone could answer this or if they have time to between all the talkk about NHC. Thank you, Sheri
Does anyone have a link where I could view radar history based on a date? (with an animated loop)

I noticed WU added a feature where you can view a 24 hour loop of past dates, but it is only showing a still frame right now.
Just be happy Here in the united states we have a free goverment if u said that same thing in cuba,Secret police will find u and kill u or put u in prison......
409. IKE
The other islands that it's approaching...Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago.
It looks like the pacific is firing up. Are we gonna have a season agian like 2006? Or is it to early to tell. I here some say there isn't gonna be a season and some say it's gonna be a bad one. But how is the season shaping up? I the BH setting up like last years did? I am just wondering if someone could answer this or if they have time to between all the talkk about NHC. Thank you, Sheri

Link The season is already above average. On average the first storm finds July 10, second storm August 6, and first hurricane August 14. In 2004 the first storm didn't form until August 1.
411. IKE
In Grenada....


"Observed at: Point Salines, GD
Elevation: 23 ft
[Partly Cloudy]
86 F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 77 F
Wind: 17 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.95 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 97 F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds: Few 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)".........

96L is about 350 miles east of Grenada.
IKE: Thank You
Sheri,13-17 storms still looks likely,and I'm personally seeing an '04 pattern setting up on the GFS.
With a high off the SE coast under a NE'rn trof.
416. IKE
Posted By: weatherboykris at 2:26 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Sheri,13-17 storms still looks likely,and I'm personally seeing an '04 pattern setting up on the GFS.


I notice a huge strong high is gonna build into the SE US...no troughs for awhile.
Gale......if you want radar views of the hurricanes you can go to the hurricane archives on here......
Does any one think that Barbados will have any effect form 96L? Should it be here tomorrow?
419. IKE
Those WU shear maps have updated to "favorable in the central/eastern Carribean thru the weekend. Before they showed UN-favorable.

Not sure I trust WU shear maps though.
I notice a huge strong high is gonna build into the SE US...no troughs for awhile.

Thats what the local met. tells me. He also said that the storms will move toward the west coast instead of the east this weekend.
This is rather interesting....Ridge?

From the NWS up in Tallahassee

LONG TERM...ONCE THE UPPER LOW OR ITS REMNANTS FINALLY EXIT THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF
OVER THE SE U.S. GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE
WHICH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
. WITH SFC RIDGING ALSO EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA BY MID WEEK. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...AM INCLINED TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAISE TEMPS TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER A WED THROUGH FRI PERIOD. FOR MON AND
TUE...WILL PLAN ON STICKING TO MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE CLIMO POPS
AND TEMPS AS WE BEGIN THE TRANSITION PERIOD.
422. IKE
The high is suppose to start breaking down next weekend or moving out in the Atlantic. Watch out in the western Caribbean then. I notice the GFS shows a lot of moisture in the western Caribbean next weekend.
Posted By: barbadosjulie at 7:30 PM GMT on July 06, 2007. (hide)
Does any one think that Barbados will have any effect form 96L? Should it be here tomorrow?


Julie, I don't think you have anything to "worry" about...but, I'd still pay attention. While everyone is writing this thing completely off, it's still has an llc, dust is either getting out of the way gradually or being overtaken, and apparently conditions ahead appear to be more favorable to development.

Nothing at all may happen, just watch! In the tropics, things can change on a dime sometimes!
424. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:37 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
This is rather interesting....Ridge?


Maybe the start of the active part of the season?
so the models are doin runs again on 96l today . and where is the blob off of fla. going
According to Navy pressure is up one to 1014mbs, but that could change this evening towards d.max.
427. IKE
The blob off of Jacksonville is moving east and hopefully out to sea.
and look at all the very low shear in two weeks:



Looks like we may loose our protection for a while Adrian. Hopefully the troughs come back soon.
430. IKE
Posted By: weatherboykris at 2:42 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
and look at all the very low shear in two weeks:


Odds are something may get going with that.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:37 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
This is rather interesting....Ridge?


Ridge...what's that mean?Oh yeah,forgot about what those were,it's been so long,LOL.
weatherboy that is because two weeks is the very early begining of the gradual increase up to the peak of the season and because of la nina. Also it is raining 2 inches per hour hear now street is flooding flash flood warnings are up.
433. IKE
On the 1915Z visual of 96L...looks like some minor convection forming close to the center of what appears a circulation.

It may just get sheared off.
434. IKE
Texas has been getting hammered with rain..will it ever stop? It's suppose to by the first of the week.
You guys sound shocked about the Ridging! Our local met has been saying that for days next week Hot and Dry!

Enjoy Adrian, WPB and FL Bloggers!
I don't know enough to say who is wrong or right here, but I do know I'm incredibly disappointed in both sides, the forecasters who have aired their internal grievances in public instead of going through a proper chain of command at the height of the hurricane season (I worked with a boss I hated for at least ten years, but I had to learn to live with it or leave), and Mr. Proenza for his inability to provide leadership (if Mr. Proenza really cares about the HCC, he really does need to resign ASAP, even if he feels he is right). Having witnessed dirty office politics firsthand in my own workplace, I know the devistating blow to morale that occurs when trust is lost and people no longer work as a team. Now that the Hurricane Center forecasters have become preoccupied with getting rid of their boss, who is left to do hurricane forecasting for the millions who depend on it for their safety and survival? Can some other service like the UK Met office fill in the gaps? I hate to even say this, but with all the recent goings on, Is it now time to think about privatizing? This gives us another reason to hope for a quiet hurricane season, that's for sure!
A storm at the NHC, huh?



Now...here's a storm for ya!
Good evening everybody!
Dear colleagues, in spite of the harsh conditions (dry air and shear)96 L still shows a circulation. This is only to remember that Nature shouldn't be underestimated.
The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director.


A Dangerous heat wave could descend on us soon. Out west is ridiculous.

I think by the banding 96l Strengthened again. Its getting close to the Caribbean and the jet fuel, should it go it would take it on a more northerly track. I think it will have another good night tonight.
What up Brian?
HERE'S SOME GOOD NEWS YOU LUCKY DEVILS!!!

I've updated the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector. It now reflects imagery from 6/1/07 - 7/5/07!!!



WATCH TEXAS GET POUNDED AS JULY STARTS! Looks like it might've developed into something had it stayed together and drifted more easterly!

Can you guess the piece of music I used for this animation?

Brian? Call me.
Dougie! What's up boy?

I'm doing good! Having fun on my day off.

Just qualified for "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" in New York last Thursday! God Doug...it was beautiful! 73 degrees with a breeze! Coney Island was a real hoot! Got to ride the Cyclone. Built in 1926...it kicked my ass!!! :) No kidding!
At this point in time, i kinda see 96L being sucked into SA. Now, if this thing can manage to avoid SA and continue the llc, then once again, we might be starting up a huge blog talking about where this monster is going to hit. But like i said i really don't think it will get another opportunity for explosion.
Cool. U always were good at trivia. U still got my number? Would like to hear from you from time to time. Tell Amy "hi" for me.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
4:00 PM Friday, June 6, 2007

Tropical disturbance in the Central Atlantic has little to no convection. Tropical development is not expected due to dry air.

Disturbance near the Florida/Georgia border is producing thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahammas. Upper level winds are not favorable for development.

Tropical development is not expected within the next 48 hours

Forecaster Bob
Hey Doug!

I don't have your number. Write me at ozman_rebel@yahoo.com
Look at the latest visiable closeup. Ninety-six seems to be wrapping deep convection into the center of the system.
Not sure if this video has been posted yet on the NHC troubles but its a must see.Trust me he's gone from the NHC before the end of the month if not sooner.

Link
There's more than meets the eye, or is being revealed, in whatever the situation with Proenza is at the NHC. Read MargieKiefer's blog, which she updated about 30 minutes ago. I think that Jeff and Margie know more than they have said already. They can only talk about what the people at NHC have gone public with. I have to side with the Dr. on this one. This is about more than the QuikSat issue. IMO
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96l might surpise us again tonight . and as someone said a more northly track might happen when is the next models runs anyone knows thanks
Adrian, in that video it could be interpreted that they sound whiney and self absorbed.

CosmicEvents completely. Its a bad scene.
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The whole NHC thing leaves a bad taste in my mouth. SO glad to know my taxpayer dollars fund PR campaigns and parties. Especially when we need more hurricane hunter planes (and it wouldn't hurt to have the satellite.)

Proenza evidently didn't play the game the way people are used to it being played. He embarrassed both his bosses and his staff, which of course, means he should be hung, you know? [/sarcasm]

Without being involved, one can't know all of the details. But this sounds more like he is being attacked not for possible bad science, but for not shutting his mouth.

Given that it's MY taxpayer dollars paying for the whole lot, I'd rather things be open and public.

But that is definitely not the government way.

The bad thing that comes out of this is that whenever he is replaced, whoever replaces him will be someone whose lips are buttoned tight. I don't really think that serves the public. For my money, I want openness and information. I don't need people to decide what I can hear or not hear.

As for those whining about the politics, too bad. This topic is relevant and to be honest, there isn't jack happening in the tropics anyhow. Which is a good thing.

Posted By: JFLORIDA at 16:31 EDT le 06 juillet 2007.

Adrian, in that video they sound whiney and self absorbed.

It does not really matter how they sound like but as avila said he has not made one hurricane forcast since the early sixtys.Almost the entire staff wants him out and iam sure there's a good reason for that.Adrian
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Whats is the latest thoughts On 96L?
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OK let me ask like this.
96L has been batteling dry air. Right?
and everyone is saying or was saying wait untill it get to the Carb.
Well when it gets to te Carb. It will still be in dry air. What was it or is it that will change once it gets to the Carb. It was or will still be in dry air. How was the Carb. Goin to change what it would or is going to do?
Evening all,

I haven't caught up on all the posts yet, but this excerpt from the Miami Herald story caught my eye:

"The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake," the 23 staff members said in their letter. "The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return its focus to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in."

This part of the staff's response sounds like the NOAA team came in and threatened them. "If you don't toe the line, your funding will be cut even further" or something to that effect.

Let me put it another way. If this so-called "mutiny" had taken place BEFORE government overseers had come into the situation, I would have placed more credibility in it. As it is, I'm not convinced this situation would ever have arisen.

It's a pity this is taking place at a time when attention should be focused on how best to meet the hurricane season that currently threatens.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:41 PM EDT on July 06, 2007.

he doesnt need approval to talk to the press, he is the director of the NHC, its his job to talk to them

go back to the stories from the Miami Herald, one of the first ones on the subject states that the paper received the letter of reprimend from one of the forecasters at the NHC



Things that make u go Hmmmm. . . . this makes me wonder just WHO leaked the story. Maybe it's someone who was quite eager to speak to the press more recently . . .
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:22 PM EDT on July 06, 2007.

Not sure if this video has been posted yet on the NHC troubles but its a must see.Trust me he's gone from the NHC before the end of the month if not sooner.


Adrian,

Can you say who is the spokesperson here? And what about the man standing in the background?
As an employee of the NWS for over a decade, I am left with a very bad impression by the recent behavior of the staff at NHC. As NWS employees they have access to an excellent system of dispute mediation. They should have resolved these issues using that system. There is NO WAY they should have gone public the way they did, with the petition and the impromptu news conference. This reflects very poorly on the agency and on themselves. Their actions lead me to wonder about their professional judgement.

Let me give you an example of what I mean...

Here's some choice quotes by James Franklin:

"We've got forecasters still back at their desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into August September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do."

"I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here. "


OK...I understand that some forecasters are frustrated with the managerial style of the boss. Well fine, but that goes with the job. Everyone has been saddled with the problem at one point or another. A true professional is able to soldier on and if need be, seek remediation.

Now say there is a hurricane that behaves like Charley and say the intensity and track forecast has significant errors. Is the bad forecast going to be blamed on "a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk"?

I am really disappointed in what I have read coming from those forecasters and I think if they take a step back and look at what they are doing, effectively eroding public confidence in NHC forecasts...they would realize they are making a huge mistake.