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Reviewing Last Week's Remarkable Cold Wave

By: Bob Henson 4:53 PM GMT on February 23, 2015

Unusually cold air will prevail across most of the Eastern U.S. for yet another week, making some inroads into the central states. Snow and ice continue to plague parts of the South and Atlantic: significant sleet and freezing rain are possible today from northeast Texas into Mississippi. Another round of wintry precipitation is likely midweek across parts of the mid-South, with the focus beginning to shift westward in a long-awaited pattern change by next weekend.

Apart from these events--and the record snow burying most of New England--it’s the cold that’s made its mark on the eastern United States this winter. A growing number of locations are within reach of their coldest February on record, and the last several days have been one of the most intense periods of cold on record for so late in the winter season in the Ohio Valley, Michigan, and the Southeast. A preliminary total of 398 daily record lows were set and 60 tied on Friday, February 20, according to NOAA’s Daily Weather Records site. That’s one of the largest single-day swarms of record lows in recent memory. (January 6, 2014, saw a similar number in its final tally, but that was after data had been received by 4007 sites, about twice as many as in Friday's preliminary total.) Saturday racked up another 209 daily record lows broken and 23 tied.


Figure 1. Sunshine illuminates icicles in the winter-swathed landscape of Plainville, Massachusetts, on Friday, February 20. Image credit: wunderphotographer PvilleGuy.

Did we just witness the most intense U.S. cold wave so late in the winter? At some locations, that may be true, according to Weather Underground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. He points out that if you examine the month of February as a whole, there are some strong challengers that occurred only a few days earlier in the month than the cold wave just experienced. “Concord, New Hampshire set its all-time record low of –37°F on Feb. 16, 1943, as did Portland, Maine with -39°F on the same date,” Burt said. Then there was February 1936, when all-time state record lows were set at Parshall, North Dakota (–60°F on the 15th) and McIntosh, South Dakota (–58° on the 17th). More recently, Alpena, Michigan set its all-time record of –37° on Feb. 17, 1979, as did Escanaba (–32°F), and Marquette (–34°F). The next day, Old Forge, New York, set the all-time state record with –52°F, and Syracuse set an all-time low with –26°F. Burt’s take on the “coldest so late” debate: no matter whether it's early or late in February, you're still in meteorological winter. “I really don’t think one should talk about record-breaking late season cold for any event that takes place in February. I would posit that not until March should such discussions become relevant.” Burt adds that a close look at region-wide anomalies, rather than individual stations, is the way to find the rightful place for last week’s event next to other frigid February periods.

One challenge with assessing local records is that many of the nation’s oldest reporting stations have moved one or more times in their history. NOAA has made an effort to “thread” these datasets into continuous long-term records, but not all databases are complete and some aspects of station history can be difficult to unearth. Last Friday, we reported that Flint, MI, had tied its all-time record on Friday of -25°F, originally recorded on Jan. 18, 1976. Weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera wrote me to note that the records at the Flint airport go back to 1948, not 1921 as is commonly stated. Measurements were taken at a different location 7 miles from town from 1921 to 1948, and it turns out that Flint dipped to –28°F on Feb. 14, 1916, at another, still-earlier reporting site. Also, Jamestown, NY, tied rather than broke its all-time high, since the town reached –31°F on Jan. 5, 1904. More details pertaining to these and other records can be found at Herrera's comment (#1041) on Friday's blog post. Herrera maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Visit this week’s Portlight Strategies workshop via livestream
Portlight Strategies, Inc. and the Hampton Roads Regional Catastrophic Planning Team will present the Getting It Right Workshop this Tuesday and Wednesday, Feb. 22 - 23. The workshop will provide tools to facilitate full integration and inclusion in all aspects of emergency preparedness and response. Speakers include representatives from FEMA, the American Red Cross, and disability stakeholder organizations. The proceedings will be livestreamed starting at 9:00 AM EST on Tuesday. Founded and staffed by members of the Weather Underground community, Portlight Strategies is a 501(c)(3) organization that facilitates a variety of projects involving people with disabilities, including post-disaster relief work. Portlight's longest-running disaster recovery effort unfolded over 18 months following the devastation of Superstorm Sandy in the shore communities of New Jersey and parts of New York City.


Figure 2. The iconic Flatirons of Boulder, Colorado, on Monday morning, February 23. Although much of the western U.S. is dealing with drought, Boulder is having a record-snowy February, with 38.4" recorded through Monday morning at the local COOP observing station on the NIST/NOAA campus. Boulder snow records go back to 1899, with reliable COOP station data beginning in 1990. Image credit: Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Mr. Henson.
Hi all, Lets hope this is not an indication of the winters to come. Hopefully next year the cold will be spread out over a larger area of the country and not as cold, as I hate the cold weather even here in South Florida.
UKMET 12z has over 7 inches of snow in Raleigh, NC through 72 hours. Definitely an interesting run for the South and Mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 3. Drakoen:

UKMET 12z has over 7 inches of snow in Raleigh, NC through 72 hours. Definitely an interesting run for the South and Mid-Atlantic.

What's it showing for the ILM area? I'm almost scared to know with a sub-1000mb low tracking just offshore. :\
Quoting 3. Drakoen:

UKMET 12z has over 7 inches of snow in Raleigh, NC through 72 hours. Definitely an interesting run for the South and Mid-Atlantic.
We get nothing.Just some flurries.
See.... what I love about WU is that it's not "my way or the highway" when it comes to wx data and its dissemination .... kudos to Max on the records information....
Meanwhile, this:



Ahhhhhhhhhhhh...............
Quoting 4. TropicalAnalystwx13:


What's it showing for the ILM area? I'm almost scared to know with a sub-1000mb low tracking just offshore. :\


I can't really tell from the maps. Since Raleighs 850s are running around -2 I would imagine that your 850s would be above freezing so a cold rain to back end snows possibly.

Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

We get nothing.Just some flurries.


Probably be more than flurries as the low pulls to the northeast I could see a light 1-3 in event. There's room for this to trend more north and west as we are still 72 hours away.

EDIT: Probably more than a light event as the UKMET shows favorable upper level winds off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Thanks for the New Post Bob,
Quoting 2. NativeSun:

Hi all, Lets hope this is not an indication of the winters to come. Hopefully next year the cold will be spread out over a larger area of the country and not as cold, as I hate the cold weather even here in South Florida.
This is one of the trends in climate that scientists are attributing, at least potentially, to AGW - these "stuck" wx patterns that bring a particular type of wx to a segment of the globe for long periods of time. The high pressures over the US west coast and over Brazil have been stuck there for a while.... which means that this pattern of cold lows is also stuck. Remember the "death ridge" highs over TX and Russia, with resultant downstream flooding over the Mississippi and Indus river valleys?

It would be interesting to see whether this pattern can be associated with other periods of extensive cold or heat in certain parts of the world, e.g. Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, etc.
Heat index of 91 degrees in Immokalee. I've got 82 degrees with 67% humidity at the house.

tonight its going down to -10F in east haven last time its went to -10F was back in 1924
good blog!!
thanx for another great blog bob.....maybe i missed it...but do you have your bio posted somewhere?
Quoting 12. hurricanes2018:

tonight its going down to -10F in east haven last time its went to -10F was back in 1924
yes I hope everyone prepares for this freeze..if you own your own home..think exposed water pipes etc...many years ago up there It sure taught ME a lesson geez did it ever.
If Jennifer Francis' research is right, these North American winters are something we should start to get used to.
Quoting 16. CuriousAboutClimate:

If Jennifer Francis' research is right, these North American winters are something we should start to get used to.

Climate Change Driving Brutal Winter?


Prolonged cold snaps on the East Coast, California drought and frozen
mornings in the South all have something in common %u2013 the atmospheric
jet stream which transports weather systems that%u2019s  taken to meandering
all over North America.

Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis and colleagues
link that wavy jet stream to a warming Arctic, where climate changes
near the top of the world are happening faster than in Earth%u2019s middle
latitudes.



A new study from Francis and University of Wisconsin-Madison scientist Stephen Vavrus, published in IOPscience,
backs up that theory, with evidence linking regional and seasonal
conditions in the Arctic to deeper north-south jet stream waves which
will lead to more extreme weather across the country.




Quoting 10. BahaHurican:

This is one of the trends in climate that scientists are attributing, at least potentially, to AGW - these "stuck" wx patterns that bring a particular type of wx to a segment of the globe for long periods of time. The high pressures over the US west coast and over Brazil have been stuck there for a while.... which means that this pattern of cold lows is also stuck. Remember the "death ridge" highs over TX and Russia, with resultant downstream flooding over the Mississippi and Indus river valleys?

It would be interesting to see whether this pattern can be associated with other periods of extensive cold or heat in certain parts of the world, e.g. Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, etc.
Hi Baha, yes a lot more research needs to be done on this subject, as we really can't tell what is causing this, or if it is effecting the Atlantic Hurricane season. I would love to be young again and working on a thesis involving these type of climate studies as this is a very exciting field to be involved in as when I was in college and working on my degree, the topic was global cooling and I was studying marine bio. and environmental impacts of building a nuclear power plant in S. Fl.
Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future. After all, reliable records covered barely a century and showed large fluctuations (especially the 1940-1970 dip). Couldn't the current trend be just another temporary wobble? Stephen Schneider, one of the scientists least shy about warning of climate dangers, acknowledged that "a greenhouse signal cannot yet be said to be unambiguously detected in the record." Like Hansen and some other scientists, he expected that the signal would emerge clearly around the end of the century, but not earlier
Quoting 8. Drakoen:



I can't really tell from the maps. Since Raleighs 850s are running around -2 I would imagine that your 850s would be above freezing so a cold rain to back end snows possibly.



Probably be more than flurries as the low pulls to the northeast I could see a light 1-3 in event. There's room for this to trend more north and west as we are still 72 hours away.

EDIT: Probably more than a light event as the UKMET shows favorable upper level winds off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
There's a chance the cold suppresses it from coming up north.
Thanx for the excellent blurb for the Portlight Workshop Livestream.



It will give Portlight a wider audience and folks can really see the workshop in action.

Always a good thing to see people helping people, it is our cornerstone.


Quoting 19. LargoFl:

Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future. After all, reliable records covered barely a century and showed large fluctuations (especially the 1940-1970 dip). Couldn't the current trend be just another temporary wobble? Stephen Schneider, one of the scientists least shy about warning of climate dangers, acknowledged that "a greenhouse signal cannot yet be said to be unambiguously detected in the record." Like Hansen and some other scientists, he expected that the signal would emerge clearly around the end of the century, but not earlier


Quite some Gibberish there as we have temperature and CO2 reconstruction data from Ice Cores going back 800,000 years.

But hey, Science is like dat.


Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.




Introduction


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Quoting 17. ILwthrfan:



Climate Change Driving Brutal Winter?


Prolonged cold snaps on the East Coast, California drought and frozen
mornings in the South all have something in common %u2013 the atmospheric
jet stream which transports weather systems that%u2019s%uFFFF taken to meandering
all over North America.
Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis and colleagues
link that wavy jet stream to a warming Arctic, where climate changes
near the top of the world are happening faster than in Earth%u2019s middle
latitudes.



















A new study from Francis and University of Wisconsin-Madison scientist Stephen Vavrus, published in IOPscience,
backs up that theory, with evidence linking regional and seasonal
conditions in the Arctic to deeper north-south jet stream waves which
will lead to more extreme weather across the country.





Hi Ilwthrfan, the trouble with his report is it only goes back a couple years and as you know it takes a lot more time than a few years to see if this is a short term trend or a sign of climate change. Interesting paper though.
Of note,


projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.
25. bwi
Quoting 17. ILwthrfan:Climate Change Driving Brutal Winter?


Not sure climate change will automatically make east coast weather brutal in winter. Remember just a couple years ago we had summer in March. But the buildup of anomalously warm water off the U.S. Pacific coast is a bit worrisome if that becomes more of a permanent feature. I wonder if that's linked to the ridiculously resilient ridge in the west and the downstream east coast winter troughs.
Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future


when....where...because even when the media was making a big deal about the ice age coming..... back in the 70's...more scientists were actually talking about global warming
Quoting 24. Patrap:

Of note,


projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.




The last time Earth temp rose 5-7C it took 12,000-12,500 years.

We're on a path to do it in 300.

Think about that for a moment,,and realize that many species of life cannot adapt to that quick a rise in local or Global temps for that matter.

The 6th Great Dying is well underway as we have created our own Geologic epoch.

Welcome to the Antrhopocene.
Quoting 22. Patrap:



Quite some Gibberish there as we have temperature and CO2 reconstruction data from Ice Cores going back 800,000 years.

But hey, Science is like dat.


Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.




Introduction


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Greetings Pat..I typed a comment last week on how the Sun radiates heat and warms the earth. The reply was that it was a mere coincidence , and that its ice cold out in space....I,m never right about anything
Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

There's a chance the cold suppresses it from coming up north.


Did that stop the Saturday system from cutting west? The 500mb heights for this storm look favorable. Some semblance of a 50/50 low and ridging over Greenland allowing confluence to set up off shore.
Your a excellent blogger with a lot of good stuff hydrus, but I understand dat completely.

Cheer's..
Quoting 23. NativeSun:

Hi Ilwthrfan, the trouble with his report is it only goes back a couple years and as you know it takes a lot more time than a few years to see if this is a short term trend or a sign of climate change. Interesting paper though.
The key is where that blocking high sets up, isn't it? If the polar spill is happening over Europe or Siberia, is it the same trend?
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Pat..I typed a comment last week on how the Sun radiates heat and warms the earth. The reply was that it was a mere coincidence , and that its ice cold out in space....I,m never right about anything


They need to go back and retake their 6-8th grade science classes.
Quoting 25. bwi:



Not sure climate change will automatically make east coast weather brutal in winter. Remember just a couple years ago we had summer in March. But the buildup of anomalously warm water off the U.S. Pacific coast is a bit worrisome if that becomes more of a permanent feature. I wonder if that's linked to the ridiculously resilient ridge in the west and the downstream east coast winter troughs.
PDO oscillation. I think once the ridge shifts we'll see a shift in the location of the cold winter wx. IIRC [barba will have some data on this, I'm sure] European winters have been excessively mild this last two to three years, which has contributed to some record flood events. Siberia's also been warmer than average for a while.
Would be a tough day to ditch in the Hudson


Quoting 34. Patrap:

Would be a tough day to ditch in the Hudson



No...It would be a good day..The white material your seeing in that image is a soft cottony substance called " ice " it occurs during the winter months due to , well , i better not say...:)
Quoting 35. hydrus:

No...It would be a good day..The white material your seeing in that image is a soft cottony substance called " ice " it occurs during the winter months due to , well , i better not say...:)
Hypothermia?
Quoting 36. BahaHurican:

Hypothermia?
No....hypothermia is a condition that occurs when a person, or persons become excited when purchasing items that measure changes in temperature.


Raw: Fuel Tanker Explodes on Busy New Jersey Highway
Gasoline tanker overturns on Route 90 in Pennsauken

Published Monday, February 23, 2015

PENNSAUKEN, N.J. (NBC Philadelphia) - A tanker truck carrying nearly 10,000 gallons of fuel overturned and ignited on a busy Camden County, New Jersey, roadway Monday morning.

The truck was carrying 8,900 gallons of gasoline when it exploded on the Route 90 eastbound on-ramp to US 130 in Pennsauken, according to Pennsauken Police Lt. Michael Probasco.

The tanker's driver was rescued from the burning vehicle, said Lt. Probasco. He was not injured in the fiery crash.

Nearby homes are being evacuated as smoke billows from the tanker.

Quoting 30. Patrap:

Your a excellent blogger with a lot of good stuff hydrus, but I understand dat completely.

Cheer's..
Thank you Pat.
Quoting LargoFl:
Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future. After all, reliable records covered barely a century and showed large fluctuations (especially the 1940-1970 dip). Couldn't the current trend be just another temporary wobble? Stephen Schneider, one of the scientists least shy about warning of climate dangers, acknowledged that "a greenhouse signal cannot yet be said to be unambiguously detected in the record." Like Hansen and some other scientists, he expected that the signal would emerge clearly around the end of the century, but not earlier
You understand that Dr. Schneider--who is no longer with us--said that in the 1980s. That's 30 years ago for those of you playing at home. Climate science is fast-changing, and 30 years is an eternity.
UKMET 12z has over 7 inches of snow in Raleigh, NC through 72 hours. i do not think so!!
Published on Feb 21, 2015
RAW: Drone footage of frozen over Niagara Falls






Well the UKMET is in a world by itself in regards to Thursday storm as the other 12z models have a more suppressed solution. We've been in this situation before, multiple times, so we'll see how this plays out.
Someone in NC is going to cash in on a jackpot beside the single mom who won the powerball...The 12z Euro shows a swath for parts of eastern NC with up to 10 inches of frozen precip..


Quoting 44. Drakoen:

Well the UKMET is in a world by itself in regards to Thursday storm as the other 12z models have a more suppressed solution. We've been in this situation before, multiple times, so we'll see how this plays out.


suppressed depressed-caster'
August 13, 2004, Friday the 13th a day Floridians will never forget. RIP to all who perish during that terrible storm.









Quoting 14. ricderr:

thanx for another great blog bob.....maybe i missed it...but do you have your bio posted somewhere?


There was this one, ric.

Bob Henson Joins Weather Underground as a Full-Time Blogger
Shreveport,La. Caddo Parish

Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio

Winter Storm Warning

Statement as of 12:03 PM CST on February 23, 2015

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CST this
evening...

* event... a mixture of freezing rain and sleet... with some snow
possible... to continue through early evening. Additional
freezing rain and sleet accumulations to near one quarter of an
inch possible.

* Timing... a wintry mix of precipitation to continue moving east
across East Texas and northwest Louisiana through the afternoon
and early evening hours.

* Impact... freezing rain... sleet and snow accumulations may cause
travel difficulties on mainly elevated bridges and overpasses.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of sleet... and
ice are expected... making travel hazardous. Bridges... overpasses
and some secondary roadways in the warning area will become icy.
Use caution while driving.




Quoting 47. GTstormChaserCaleb:

August 13, 2004, Friday the 13th a day Floridians will never forget. RIP to all who perish during that terrible storm.


My grandparents house in Punta Gorda, which I spent a month at every summer growing up, ended up being demolished due to the severe damage. Still an empty lot sitting there on an inlet a block or so from Charlotte Harbor. I haven't been back since the storm but hear the area has had a really hard time recovering
There was this one, ric.


thanx...i just ordered the book......
Quoting 48. beell:



There was this one, ric.

Bob Henson Joins Weather Underground as a Full-Time Blogger
Thanks, beell.... so far Bob has been a great fit.... excellent blogs, and wacky hair, too.
Quoting 50. CarolinaHurricanes87:



My grandparents' house in Punta Gorda, which I spent a month at every summer growing up, ended up being demolished due to the severe damage. Still an empty lot sitting there on an inlet a block or so from Charlotte Harbor. I haven't been back since the storm but hear the area has had a really hard time recovering
Sorry to hear about your Grandparents place Carolina, hopefully you will visit back sometime, they seem to have a nice restaurant in town. Hurricane Charley's Raw Bar and Grill...looks like a nice place to dine and oversee the beautiful sunsets and relax to the tropical breezes and kick back to some live music, margaritas, and seafood. Now that is my kind of style. I will definitely have to check it out sometime I am down that way.

Link
ric & Baha...a plus to you both!
What a difference a day makes! Yesterday at noon it was 75, today it was 41. Overcast, wind chill 36. Blech.
Quoting 15. LargoFl:

yes I hope everyone prepares for this freeze..if you own your own home..think exposed water pipes etc...many years ago up there It sure taught ME a lesson geez did it ever.


The lesson I take from this is that building codes exist for a reason.
Quoting 28. hydrus:

Greetings Pat..I typed a comment last week on how the Sun radiates heat and warms the earth. The reply was that it was a mere coincidence , and that its ice cold out in space....I,m never right about anything

Must have missed that exchange. 'I'm never right about anything'? Sorry, but what a bunch of stuff and nonsense. Your posts are always appreciated, hydrus! Please keep them coming :)
Quoting 19. LargoFl:

Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future. After all, reliable records covered barely a century and showed large fluctuations (especially the 1940-1970 dip). Couldn't the current trend be just another temporary wobble? Stephen Schneider, one of the scientists least shy about warning of climate dangers, acknowledged that "a greenhouse signal cannot yet be said to be unambiguously detected in the record." Like Hansen and some other scientists, he expected that the signal would emerge clearly around the end of the century, but not earlier

A piece in today's online Washington Post observes that today the debate over global warming is not about the science, which was settled long ago. Those who today argue against global warming do so because they feel that it is an ideological threat. Some who argue against AGW are upfront about this. Sen. Inhofe and our own help4u come to mind. Although I believe their views are unhelpful (I'm seriously restraining myself here), I give them credit for acknowledging that AGW offends their religious views. Some on this site, however, are not so forthcoming as to their motivations for attempting to deny AGW, and the most we ever see is "I feel...", or "I don't think....", or something along the lines of "it's cold in X today, therefore...", or, in the worst cases, "it's a hoax, a fraud, a scam...", which slanders many dedicated professionals. I think it would be helpful if those who make anti-AGW posts on this site, including those who try to be coy about it, would be forthcoming about your ideological perspective. This site is at its best when climatology and meteorology are being discussed, and AGW is settled science in these disciplines. Ideology is not settled science, and its discussion is best done elsewhere, but if you must put forth opinions grounded in ideology on this site, please do the courtesy of being explicit about your ideological perspective.

Quoting 55. LAbonbon:

What a difference a day makes! Yesterday at noon it was 75, today it was 41. Overcast, wind chill 36. Blech.


34F cooler today here as well currentlly
A nice rainstorm yesterday and overnight in Soo Cal........been a while since the last good rain. Here's some storm rainfall tptals from various locations in Soooo Cal...... due to orographic lifting the mountains got very nice totals of 2-3 inches. A possible storm for this weekend is in the works.



PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
1030 AM PST MONDAY FEB 23 2015


RAWS MESONET ASOS AND ALERT 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF

_________________________1030 AM MONDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) MILES/DIRECTION FROM

1. LAKE CUYAMACA 2.64 1NE CUYAMACA MT
2. BIRCH HILL 2.57 2SSW PALOMAR MT
3. PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 2.47 0 PALOMAR MT
4. LAKE CUYAMACA 2.39
5. PALOMAR CRS 2.36 2SW PALOMAR MT
6. OAK GLEN WATERSHED 2.36 8NNE BEAUMONT
7. PINE HILLS FS 2.31 3SW JULIAN
8. JULIAN 2.14 1E JULIAN
9. PINE HILLS RAWS 2.12 5SW JULIAN
10.CEDAR GLEN 2.09 4ESE LAKE ARROWHEAD

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

END OF MT BALDY ROAD......8 INCHES
MOUNTAIN HIGH RESORT......7-10
GREEN VALLEY LAKE.........6
BIG BEAR LAKE.............5
WRIGHTWOOD................4
BIG BEAR..................4
FORREST FALLS.............3
RUNNING SPRINGS...........3
ARROWBEAR.................3
BIG BEAR CITY.............3
BARTON FLATS..............3
CRESTLINE.................2
IDYLLWILD.................2
WRIGHTWOOD................2
ANGELES OAKS..............2
BLUE JAY..................1
LAKE ARROWHEAD............1
WEST CAJON VALLEY.........0.75


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
SAN MARCOS LANDFILL 0.58 766 3SW SAN MARCOS
EL CAMINO DEL NORTE 0.47 50 6SSW SAN MARCOS
CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 0.42 539 8NNW SAN DIEGO
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.38 100 9NW OCEANSIDE
BROWN FIELD 0.32 524 5SE CHULA VISTA
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.29 357 3SE CARLSBAD
CARLSBAD 0.28 305
SOLANA BEACH 0.22 75 0 SOLOANA BEACH
SAN ONOFRE 0.20 162 7NNW OCEANSIDE
OCEANSIDE 0.20 30 1N OCEANSIDE
ENCINITAS 0.19 242 0 ENCINITAS
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.18 42 1NW SAN DIEGO
SAN YSIDRO 0.16 30 4SE IMPERIAL BEACH
FASHION VALLEY 0.14 20 3N SAN DIEGO
POINT LOMA 0.12 364 4WSW SAN DIEGO
TIJUANA ESTUARY 0.12 20
SMUGGLERS GULCH 0.12 74


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
ALPINE RAWS 0.98 2041 2ESE ALPINE
RINCON SPRINGS 0.97 970 5NE VALLEY CENTER
LAKE WOHLFORD 0.90 1490 1SE VALLEY CENTER
VALLEY CENTER 0.87 1295 0 VALLEY CENTER
VALLEY CENTER RAWS 0.86 1370 1ENE VALLEY CENTER
ESCONDIDO 0.79 640 0 ESCONDIDO
RAINBOW CAMP 0.78 1553 2S TEMECULA
MT. WOODSON 0.77 1720 4NW POWAY
COLE GRADE RD 0.76 750 5N JULIAN
GOOSE VALLEY RAWS 0.72 1530 2NNW RAMONA
RAMONA AIRPORT 0.70 1400 2W RAMONA
SD COUNTRY ESTATES 0.67 1660 5SE RAMONA
HARBISON CANYON 0.67 1240 1SE LAKESIDE
BARONA 0.63 1280 3SSE RAMONA
FLINN SPRINGS 0.61 880 2E LAKESIDE
FALLBROOK 0.60 675 1S FALLBROOK
BONSALL CRS 0.60 185 3SSW FALLBROOK
SANDIA CK RD 0.55 342 1NE FALLBROOK
COUSER CANYON 0.55 285 1WSW VALLEY CENTER
POWAY 0.53 440 1SW POWAY
DULZURA SUMMIT 0.51 1512 8SE JAMUL
RANCHO BERNARDO 0.50 690 0 SGX OFFICE
GRANITE HILLS 0.50 533 2E EL CAJON
RAMONA 0.49 1420 0 RAMONA
DEER SPRINGS 0.44 1000 1SE ESCONDIDO
LOS COCHES CREEK 0.43 560 4NNE EL CAJON
MIRAMAR LAKE 0.33 130 3ESE MIRA MESA
LAKE MURRAY 0.32 530 1NW LA MESA
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS 0.32 917 7W FALLBROOK
LA MESA 0.31 530 0 LA MESA
SANTEE 0.28 300 2W SANTEE
PARADISE CREEK 0.24 950 3ENE VALLEY CENTER
SAN MIGUEL RAWS 0.14 425 7SSE LA MESA


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
LAKE CUYAMACA 2.64 4560 1NE CUYAMACA MT
BIRCH HILL 2.57 5645 2SSW PALOMAR MT
PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 2.47 5560 0 PALOMAR MT
PALOMAR CRS 2.36 2SW PALOMAR MT
PINE HILLS FS 2.31 3645 3SW JULIAN
JULIAN 2.14 4230 1E JULIAN
PINE HILLS RAWS 2.12 3600 5SW JULIAN
JULIAN RAWS 2.07 4240 0 JULIAN
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN RAWS 1.99 5530 0 PALOMAR MT
LA JOLLA ERN TANKS 1.89 3000 3SSW PALOMAR MT
HENSHAW DAM 1.73 2750 0 LAKE HENSHAW
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 1.68 5410
MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS 1.53 5760 2N PINE VALLEY
LA JOLLA AMAGO 1.42 2400 9ENE VALLEY CENTER
CAMERON RAWS 1.36 3443 4N CAMPO
DESCANSO RAWS 1.25 3480 7NW PINE VALLEY
OTAY MOUNTAIN RAWS 1.18 3283 7SSE JAMUL
WARNER SPRINGS 1.00 3040
SANTA YSABEL 1.00 2990 3NW JULIAN
TIERRA DEL SOL 0.92 4000 1W BOULEVARD
OAK GROVE RAWS 0.85 2770 2NE PALOMAR MT
MT LAGUNA 0.83 6000 0 MT LAGUNA
ECHO DELL 0.81 3060 8NW PINE VALLEY
CAMPO 1N 0.80 2610 1N CAMPO
RANCHITA 0.69 4008 6WSW BORREGO SPR
RANCHITA RAWS 0.69 4180 5WSW BORREGO SPR
DESCANSO RS 0.32 3650 4WNW PINE VALLEY


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS

SAN FELIPE 0.20 2280 5ESE JULIAN
COYOTE CK 0.07 1189
BORREGO PALM CANYON 0.05 790 1NW BORREGO SPR
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.01 500 2ESE BORREGO SPR

.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
LAGUNA AUDUBON 1.11 314 3W MISSION VIEJO
BELL CANYON 0.98 700 7ENE SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO
YORBA RESERVOIR 0.91 300 1S YORBA LINDA
UPPER OSO CREEK 0.90 420 1E LAKE FOREST
UPPER ALISO CREEK 0.75 560 1ESE LAKE FOREST
MILLER BASIN 0.64 220 1SW YORBA LINDA
COTO DE CAZA 0.63 730 1ESE RANCHO SANTA MARG
YORBA PARK 0.63 305 2SE YORBA LINDA
LAGUNA BCH @ WOODLAND 0.63 47 1NE LAGUNA BEACH
BEE CANYON 0.59 755 4NE IRVINE
WESTMINSTER CHANNEL 0.59 40 2SW GARDEN GROVE
LAGUNA NIGUEL PARK 0.59 200 3E LAGUNA BEACH
VILLA PARK DAM 0.57 560 3SE YORBA LINDA
SAN JUAN GUARD 0.55 660 8E MISSION VIEJO
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 0.55 75 2NE DANA POINT
E GARDEN GVE/WNTRSBRG 0.51 120 2NW SANTA ANA
MOULTON PEAK REPEATER 0.51 888 3NE LAGUNA BEACH
BREA 2W 0.47 340 4NE FULLERTON
GILBERT RETARDING BSN 0.47 100 2WSW ANAHEIM
CORONA DEL MAR 0.47 300 2E NEWPORT BEACH
OCEANVIEW 0.47 43 3S GARDEN GROVE
BREA OLINDA 0.43 750 3NW YORBA LINDA
EL MODENA-IRVINE 0.43 70 2N IRVINE
LAGUNA CYN REPEATER 0.40 530 2NW LAGUNA BEACH
ALAMEDA STORM CHANNEL 0.39 339 4S YORBA LINDA
HUNTINGTON BEACH 0.39 20 3N HUNTINGTON BEACH
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 0.35 50 4W IRVINE
COSTA MESA 0.35 47 3NNE NEWPORT BEACH
SANTA ANA ENGINEERING 0.35 170 0 SANTA ANA
FULLERTON CREEK 0.32 95 0 FULLERTON
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.32 120 1NNW SANTA ANA
SAN DIEGO CK @ CULVER 0.31 70 1SSE IRVINE
SAN DIEGO CK @ CAMPUS 0.27 20 0 IRVINE
PICO RETARDING BASIN 0.24 760 2NW SAN CLEMENTE
FULLERTON AIRPORT 0.21 96 1W FULLERTON
GARDEN GROVE 0.20 80 2NW GARDEN GROVE
SANTA ANA DELHI CHNL 0.19 24 3NE NEWPORT BEACH
ANAHEIM BARBER CITY 0.12 5 1NE SEAL BEACH

.SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
UPPER SILVERADO CYN 1.81 2880 2N SANTIAGO PK
UPPER HARDING CYN 1.78 4254
SANTIAGO PEAK 1.46 5660 0 SANTIAGO PK
SILVERADO MOTORWAY 1.45 3969
KSOX RADAR SITE 1.38 3092 7NW SANITAGO PK
MODJESKA CANYON 1.10 1260 5NE LAKE FOREST
SANTA ROSA PLATEAU 0.92 1980 2SSW MURRIETA
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.75 1210 5NE LAKE FOREST
EL CARISO RAWS 0.74 2660 1SW LAKE ELSINORE
EL CARISO 0.71 2600 2SW LAKE ELSINORE
FREMONT CANYON RAWS 0.49 1781 6SE YORBA LINDA
SYLVAN MEADOWS 0.44 1892 3WSW MURRIETA


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
BEAUMONT RAWS 1.04 2680 1E BEAUMONT
PORTRERO CANYON 0.98 2220 1W FULLERTON
BEAUMONT 0.94 2624 0 BEAUMONT
TEMECULA 0.75 1180 0 TEMECULA
PIGEON PASS DAM 0.71 1700 2NW MORENO VALLEY
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 0.68 847 1W RIVERSIDE
RIVERSIDE SOUTH 0.67 875 0 RIVERSIDE
WOODCREST DAM 0.63 861 2S RIVERSIDE
CRANSTON RAWS 0.63 1950 6E HEMET
GILMAN HOT SPRINGS 0.55 1511 4NE PERRIS
NORCO 0.51 650 2N CORONA
SKINNER LAKE 0.47 1700 4NE TEMECULA
MORENO-CLARK 0.47 1810 1E MORENO VALLEY
CLARK RAWS 0.44 1718 6SW MORENO VALLEY
HEMET/RYAN FIELD 0.43 1510 1WSW HEMET
LAKE MATTHEWS RAWS 0.41 1522 7SW CORONA
VAIL LAKE 0.40 1470 9E TEMECULA
FRENCH VALLEY AIRPORT 0.39 909 5NNE TEMECULA
MURRIETA CK AT TENAJA 0.35 1100 0 MURRIETA
PERRIS CDF 0.27 924 0 PERRIS
RAILROAD CANYON DAM 0.20 1420 2E LAKE ELSINORE


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
VISTA GRANDE RAWS 1.84 4700 6WNW SAN JACINTO PK
VISTA GRANDE 1.77 4939 6SE BANNING
ALLANDALE 1.69 5800 3NE IDYLLWILD
POPPET FLAT RAWS 1.40 3830 4S BANNING
TICK RIDGE 1.30 4236 4NNW CABAZON
KEENWILD RAWS 1.24 4920 6SW IDYLLWILD
BANNING BENCH 1.11 3619 5NE BEAUMONT
LIVE OAK CANYON 0.94 6000 10SW IDYLLWILD
SAGE RAWS 0.81 2560 9SSE HEMET
PINYON PINES RAWS 0.67 4060 1S PINYON PINES

.COACHELLA VALLEY

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
WHITEWATER TROUT FARM 0.98 2200 6WNW DRT HOT SPRINGS
MORONGO VALLEY 4SSW 0.51 2400 4SSW MORONGO VALLEY
PALM SPRINGS AIRPORT 0.17 425 IE PALMS SPRINGS
LOWER TAHQUITZ CREEK 0.16 560 1SW PALM SPRINGS
PALM CANYON CREEK 0.16 700 6S PALM SPRINGS
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 0.12 1228 1N DESERT HOT SPRINGS
WIDE CANYON DAM 0.08 1530 7ESE DESERT HOT SPRINGS
GOLF CLUB DR. PS 0.08 330 2SE PALM SPRINGS
DEAD INDIAN BASIN 0.08 1050 20E INDO
CATHEDRAL CANYON 0.08 605 1W CATHEDRAL CITY
THERMAL AIRPORT 0.04 -118 1W THERMAL
CATHEDRAL CITY 0.04 249 3SE CATHEDRAL CITY


.SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
HEMLOCK BURN 1.65 2280
PLUNGE CREEK CANYON 1.30 1590 3E HIGHLAND
SAN SEVAINE CHANNEL 1.18 1144 3WNW FONTANA
ELDER CREEK 1.14 1649 2E HIGHLAND
ELDER GULCH 
Quoting 28. hydrus:

Greetings Pat..I typed a comment last week on how the Sun radiates heat and warms the earth. The reply was that it was a mere coincidence , and that its ice cold out in space....I,m never right about anything

I am misunderstanding this exchange. The sun doesn't radiate heat, it radiates energy in wave form. When the the radiation from the sun strikes an object it excites the atoms in that object which then becomes heat. Link
Modified to remove lame attempt at a joke.
I agree with you, ACS, except on the following: "Ideology is not settled science". Ideology is not science. When one's wallet, prejudices, metaphysical predilections and esoteric philosophies interfere with their ability to rationally comprehend and discuss the world around them, they are in no way being scientific no matter how hard they attempt to look as such.
The difference in forecast from the GFS verses the Euro is one you rarely see as the GFS has FL bone dry from late Thursday on while the Euro shows 2" to 3" of rain from Thursday thru Saturday across C FL. It should also be noted the Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, & JMA models all show the same scenario while the GFS is in its own world. Good sign to me that the upgrade has not helped the GFS at all because if its this off what can we expect this summer from this model.
From cold to hot in just 3 days. That 81 is coming with a 68 degree dewpoint. Very humid.

Up to blazing 8 currently in S C IL, lows this a.m. -2 to -4, dew pts in minus, press up to 30.7", 4-10 N winds w/ 15 gust for occasional minus wc's. Had about 4-5" of mostly dry snow late Sat.(edit: oops Fri.) evening. Little warm up tomorrow after another near 0 low, then back in the deep freeze. Long range shows us being near the freeze line again next weekend. We'll see how that evolves as week progresses, but sure hope ice stays away from those already affected and tomorrow's warm up allows most to melt.
Quoting 63. SouthTampa:

I agree with you, ACS, except on the following: "Ideology is not settled science". Ideology is not science. When one's wallet, prejudices, metaphysical predilections and esoteric philosophies interfere with their ability to rationally comprehend and discuss the world around them, they are in no way being scientific no matter how hard they attempt to look as such.


The sociologist disagrees, ideology is science and is a rather strong predictor of many behaviors. :) But, I get what you were saying, just having a bit of fun.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-06 6>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-C ARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-C OBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOU GLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORD ON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY -HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMP KIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGA N-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY- SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR- TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WA LTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX -WILKES-
WILKINSON-
945 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. THE GREATER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER
LINE...AND MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM A DUSTING UP TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY /ATLWSWFFC/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY /ATLWSWFFC/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS CHANCE FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

$$
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. THE CHANCES FOR THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY NORTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO WEDOWEE LINE. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LINGERING CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS THROUGH MID MORNING
TUESDAY GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A MILLPORT TO JASPER LINE AND
NORTH OF A SELMA TO ROANOKE LINE. SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME NECESSARY AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

08
Quoting 69. Naga5000:



The sociologist disagrees, ideology is science and is a rather strong predictor of many behaviors. :) But, I get what you were saying, just having a bit of fun.



I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the ideology thing, I don't see any primary definition that fits ideology with science from I can find. Yes scientists can and do have ideology, because they are human, but their work cannot have ideology, or it's not scientific work.

As far as I know, ideology for instance, might be that capitalism or communism will cure all poverty, or that peaceful intelligent alien civilizations definitely exist.


Interesting. The sun has barely made a dent in the thick sea fog at St. Pete Beach.
From the looks of the current conus loops, that wintry mix is moving along at a pretty rapid clip, with help from the mid-level jet, entering central MS at the moment and headed towards North Alabama and GA later this evening. Accumilation is not the issue for these parts but sleet and freezing rain will make the roads dangerous again.

Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:

The difference in forecast from the GFS verses the Euro is one you rarely see as the GFS has FL bone dry from late Thursday on while the Euro shows 2" to 3" of rain from Thursday thru Saturday across C FL. It should also be noted the Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, & JMA models all show the same scenario while the GFS is in its own world. Good sign to me that the upgrade has not helped the GFS at all because if its this off what can we expect this summer from this model.


Yeah the NWS talks about this difference, and the main the difference is that the GFS is aggressive with deep layered dry, cool, stable air quickly advecting across Florida Thursday night into the weekend, and thus forcing the front well south. So while the GFS also moves the series of shortwaves across the area during that timeframe like the ecmwf, it only develops some high clouds due to no available moisture.

The ecmwf however and the rest of the models stall the front just south of Central Florida and due a pretty significant overrunning moisture event instead.

We'll see what happena, but the GFS is the outlier right now, hopefully the wetter models are right, more rain and less dry cool air is good in my book, it's almost March, I'm done with cold desert dry air.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1048 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...

.COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF BATON ROUGE LATE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...EXPECTED LIGHT
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

LAZ034>036-MSZ068>070-240100-
/O.NEW.KLIX.ZR.Y.0001.150224T0300Z-150224T1500Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...CENTREVILLE...W OODVILLE...
GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB
1048 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE RISK OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-
MORNING TUESDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE PRONE TO ICING
WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Interesting. The sun has barely made a dent in the thick sea fog at St. Pete Beach.


I talked about this the other day. It's quite common when it gets really warm during the Winter or early Spring when the water is still chilly in the GOM.
We had some sea fog this morning but its backed offshore and it's now sunny at the beach.
Quoting 72. Jedkins01:




I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the ideology thing, I don't see any primary definition that fits ideology with science from I can find. Yes scientists can and do have ideology, because they are human, but their work cannot have ideology, or it's not scientific work.

As far as I know, ideology for instance, might be that capitalism or communism will cure all poverty, or that peaceful intelligent alien civilizations definitely exist.


I was talking in the broader sense that ideology is a concrete thing, and it is influential in how we "do" science, how we judge what constitutes science, and how we interpret science. To give you a definition that may be more helpful (since you mentioned you couldn't find a primary definition you liked), this is generally how it is defined in my field:

"An ideology is a set of cultural beliefs, values, and attitudes that underlie and justify either the status quo or movements to change it. The culture of every social system has an ideology that serves to explain and justify its own existence as a way of life. Ideology can also underlie movements for social change, which rely on sets of ideas that explain and justify their purpose and methods."

These include beliefs, values, and attitudes towards science, scientists, and the scientific process in this context. Now ideologies can and do interact with each other to form more complex personal stances, but ideologies are not weighted equally in our sense of self, in other words, some ideological processes count for more than others, one large example is the link between fundamental Christianity and the rejection of science. These people are more ideologically than Christian or conservative, but these ideologies play an integral role in how they view science, scientists, and how they do scientific processes.

80. vis0

Quoting 29. Drakoen:



Did that stop the Saturday system from cutting west? The 500mb heights for this storm look favorable. Some semblance of a 50/50 low and ridging over Greenland allowing confluence to set up off shore.

I have to disagree. Without ideology, there is no philosphy, without philosophy there is no religion, without science, there is nothing. It depends on which school of philosophy one wishes to embrace. Humans do it all the time with realizing, or even having read a particular philosophy. One could claim that people who do not embrace a particular concept or science would be considered following the Pyrrhonist school of philosophy.

Any type of drastic change or danger which may be announced makes people uncomfortable. It is in all our nature. To be presented with an ideology or science over which we have no control, is out of our comfort zone. It is our ideology and summation of all our experiences which determine which school of thought we embrace.

(I have a used soapbox if anyone wants one)


just updated
Quoting 81. Grothar:

I have to disagree. Without ideology, there is no philosphy, without philosophy there is no religion, without science, there is nothing. It depends on which school of philosophy one wishes to embrace. Humans do it all the time with realizing, or even having read a particular philosophy. One could claim that people who do not embrace a particular concept or science would be considered following the Pyrrhonist school of philosophy.

Any type of drastic change or danger which may be announced makes people uncomfortable. It is in all our nature. To be presented with an ideology or science over which we have no control, is out of our comfort zone. It is our ideology and summation of all our experiences which determine which school of thought we embrace.

(I have a used soapbox if anyone wants one)


PS: not meant in reply to 79
#61 HurricaneHunterJoe

Hey, Joe. Do you have the FULL version of this??? :) How you doing stranger?
Quoting 83. Grothar:



PS: not meant in reply to 79


I'm ideologically opposed to post scripts.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CAMDEN...THOMASVILLE...TO WAYNESBORO LINE. WHILE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS...MAINLY
OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE WEATHER WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER AS SOME OF THE OUTLYING MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
Quoting 82. tampabaymatt:



just updated
Hopefully we get some of that rain here by us matt.
Quoting 85. Naga5000:



I'm ideologically opposed to post scripts.


Why you peripatetic pyrrhonist! :)
Quoting LargoFl:
Hopefully we get some of that rain here by us matt.


You guys have had a wet February up there. March is usually one of the wetter months during the dry season. So it will be interesting to see how March works out.
Down here and up there, March will probably be similar to Dec - Feb (dry S.W. and wet Central).

Normal precipitation for March
Fort Myers- 2.88
Tampa - 3.03"
Orlando - 3.77"

Quoting 73. tampabaymatt:



Interesting. The sun has barely made a dent in the thick sea fog at St. Pete Beach.



Gotta love the effects of warmer more humid air moving over the colder waters, water temps are in the upper 50's to low 60's while an airmass is moving over the area that's in the 70's with high dewpoints, perfect for sea fog.

We had sea fog up here as well this morning, even 30 miles inland.
91. vis0

Quoting 34. Patrap:

Would be a tough day to ditch in the Hudson


how does patrap know so much 'bout vis0? He knows everything
: - P
Quoting 79. Naga5000:



I was talking in the broader sense that ideology is a concrete thing, and it is influential in how we "do" science, how we judge what constitutes science, and how we interpret science. To give you a definition that may be more helpful (since you mentioned you couldn't find a primary definition you liked), this is generally how it is defined in my field:

"An ideology is a set of cultural beliefs, values, and attitudes that underlie and justify either the status quo or movements to change it. The culture of every social system has an ideology that serves to explain and justify its own existence as a way of life. Ideology can also underlie movements for social change, which rely on sets of ideas that explain and justify their purpose and methods."

These include beliefs, values, and attitudes towards science, scientists, and the scientific process in this context. Now ideologies can and do interact with each other to form more complex personal stances, but ideologies are not weighted equally in our sense of self, in other words, some ideological processes count for more than others, one large example is the link between fundamental Christianity and the rejection of science. These people are more ideologically than Christian or conservative, but these ideologies play an integral role in how they view science, scientists, and how they do scientific processes.




Oh ok, makes sense, I think we are on the same page then!
Quoting 87. LargoFl:

Hopefully we get some of that rain here by us matt.


I hope to get some most every day... Keeps things fresh and vibrant!!!
Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:



You guys have had a wet February up there. March is usually one of the wetter months during the dry season. So it will be interesting to see how March works out.
Down here and up there, March will probably be similar to Dec - Feb (dry S.W. and wet Central).

Normal precipitation for March
Fort Myers- 2.88
Tampa - 3.03"
Orlando - 3.77"




Yeah, we really don't need any more rain right now. It would be nice to have just average precip months for March and April. I always appreciate a wet May as that is usually the worst month on lawns. The days are long, the temps are searing, but usually the summer thunderstorms haven't kicked in yet.
Go ahead, ask us Floridians why we choose to live in this state despite its many obvious flaws.



But a glimmer of hope for many the following week:

Quoting 69. Naga5000:



The sociologist disagrees, ideology is science and is a rather strong predictor of many behaviors. :) But, I get what you were saying, just having a bit of fun.


Nice discussion here. I think the difference in the way I used the term ideology and they way you are using it is where our dichotomy comes from. What I am saying is that human presuppositions, also known as, ideology, rooted in metaphysical "beliefs" (superstitions, religion, what's best for their bank account, etc) is not science. One cannot apply those beliefs in a scientific endeavor lest they bias the study. For most this is a huge challenge, even subconsciously.

Sociology, which uses concepts such as ideology to predict outcomes is most definitely a science.

From another post (#81), I don't agree that Philosophy -> Ideology -> Religion is a linear construct that is non-scientific. Philosophy encompasses many disciplines. Science is closely related to logical positivism, in which a statement requires logically (mathematics, logic) or empirically (scientific) verifiable proof to have cognitive meaning.

Also, the PhD stands for Doctor of Philosophy. One who has done what it takes to earn such a degree in their field has mastered the philosophy of that field.
Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:



You guys have had a wet February up there. March is usually one of the wetter months during the dry season. So it will be interesting to see how March works out.
Down here and up there, March will probably be similar to Dec - Feb (dry S.W. and wet Central).

Normal precipitation for March
Fort Myers- 2.88
Tampa - 3.03"
Orlando - 3.77"




Yep March often is, usually because frontal systems on average are still fairly far south enough to impact the area while available moisture and heat energy on average is a lot more by March. However by April and May it drops a bit again due to placement of low pressure tracks lifting further and further north despite moisture and heat increasing.

Some others in the area:

Sarasota/Bradenton: 3.99

St. Petersburg: 3.56

Plant City: 3.57

Rainfall average up here is still higher though, because we are close to the gulf moisture source still but on average low pressure tracks are closer here:

Tallahassee: 5.94

What's interesting about the northern gulf coast, is that average rainfall during the winter and spring from synoptic scale systems is a lot higher than places further north as well. I think it is indeed because the northern gulf coast gets the same high moisture source from the gulf and tropics as Central and South Florida but often its close enough on average to the energy source of synoptic scale systems for rainfall to be more consistent on average.

The reason why El Nino years for example can be so wet in Central Florida is that it's common for strong dynamic gulf lows to pass by, and in such cases, you get the combination of Nor' Easter like lows with strong dynamics and energy tapping into deeper tropical moisture.
Quoting 95. Neapolitan:

Go ahead, ask us Floridians why we choose to live in this state despite its many obvious flaws.



But a glimmer of hope for many the following week:




I'm glad to see this, my Floridian nature is sick of winter, although I have laugh because winter in North Florida is still very mild compared to up north. Yes Florida has it's flaws but the good most certainly outweighs the bad and I'm happy to call it home.
The only thing we are missing in Florida is mountains, otherwise I'd say it's completely ideals.


Tampa Bay area
Go ahead, ask us Floridians why we choose to live in this state despite its many obvious flaws.


come july.....when my highs are in the low to mid 90's.....my "feels like" temp is in the 80's........my humidity is less than 30 percent...and my nights hover at 70......no mosquitoes to speak of...no gnats or noseeums....i'll smile remembering one of the reasons i enjoy no longer living in florida
Quoting 97. Jedkins01:



Yep March often is, usually because frontal systems on average are still fairly far south enough to impact the area while available moisture and heat energy on average is a lot more by March. However by April and May it drops a bit again due to placement of low pressure tracks lifting further and further north despite moisture and heat increasing.

Some others in the area:

Sarasota/Bradenton: 3.99

St. Petersburg: 3.56

Plant City: 3.57

Rainfall average up here is still higher though, because we are close to the gulf moisture source still but on average low pressure tracks are closer here:

Tallahassee: 5.94

What's interesting about the northern gulf coast, is that average rainfall during the winter and spring from synoptic scale systems is a lot higher than places further north as well. I think it is indeed because the northern gulf coast gets the same high moisture source from the gulf and tropics as Central and South Florida but often its close enough on average to the energy source of synoptic scale systems for rainfall to be more consistent on average.

The reason why El Nino years for example can be so wet in Central Florida is that it's common for strong dynamic gulf lows to pass by, and in such cases, you get the combination of Nor' Easter like lows with strong dynamics and energy tapping into deeper tropical moisture.


The precip distribution seems to have been consistent with a weak El-Nino so far this Winter and if we can get a more robust El-Nino next Winter then expect to see even wetter conditions across FL next Winter. CFSv2 is really beginning to show what could be a atleast a moderate El-Nino by this Fall. Something to watch as this enso if it were to occur would also effect precip patterns across FL this Summer as well with focusing rains across eastern FL due to a persistent westerly flow like last Summer.
Question: I've noticed that this winter the Bermuda/Azores high had been weak which caused the lows to dip lower than normal into Bahamas giving us a lot of west and NW winds with some mild N winds. For about a week now it seems that high is strong again. Is the weaking of it over for the winter or do you think we will get some more northwest winds?
Quoting 91. vis0:


: - P



If you recall the movie, The Men who stared at Goats,

I was the USMC Enlisted soul in the real thing, many moons ago.

Before I knew Grothar too.

It began with a auto accident in 79 that I survived, note a 77 Ranchero GT door post can bend just enough from the R shoulder impact due to a Ford 9000 tractor truck Hit and run, and did keep my noggin from going thru the windshield and popping off.


Anything else?


Try the phish,
Quoting 77. LAbonbon:



WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


Hey, be careful if you are traveling, I know you guys don't get this that often
I've just added a postscript to today's blog, noting the record snow total for February achieved over the weekend in Boulder, CO.

--Bob H.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Go ahead, ask us Floridians why we choose to live in this state despite its many obvious flaws.



But a glimmer of hope for many the following week:



Weren't you criticizing STS for showing a model run with potential heavy rain for FL saying it should be "taken with a grain of salt?" I guess we can say the same for you with these model forecast. Know what I mean?
Quoting 98. Jedkins01:

The only thing we are missing in Florida is mountains, otherwise I'd say it's completely ideals.

Trout and trout streams, snow, seasons, lots of lakes, - I like Michigan
florida flaws = very intense hurricanes more common in s. florida
Quoting 100. ricderr:

Go ahead, ask us Floridians why we choose to live in this state despite its many obvious flaws.


come july.....when my highs are in the low to mid 90's.....my "feels like" temp is in the 80's........my humidity is less than 30 percent...and my nights hover at 70......no mosquitoes to speak of...no gnats or noseeums....i'll smile remembering one of the reasons i enjoy no longer living in florida
<---- Sportsmans Paradise Guy.
Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:



The precip distribution seems to have been consistent with a weak El-Nino so far this Winter and if we can get a more robust El-Nino next Winter then expect to see even wetter conditions across FL next Winter. CFSv2 is really beginning to show what could be a atleast a moderate El-Nino by this Fall. Something to watch as this enso if it were to occur would also effect precip patterns across FL this Summer as well with focusing rains across eastern FL due to a persistent westerly flow like last Summer.
It could also be a monster La Nino, if your going to make a prediction at this time. To far into the future to trust any model including climate models.
The precip distribution seems to have been consistent with a weak El-Nino so far this Winter


there is no discernible pattern in regards to a weak el nino and florida precip distribution......

It could also be a monster La Nino, if your going to make a prediction at this time. To far into the future to trust any model including climate models.

i think i have to disagree....the problem is not with the prediction....i think we all should be allowed to make them....we expect the reader to decipher good and bad predictions.....the problem is that the fact stated is just not true
Comment that I will add to the philosophy/science issue is that one hopes that scientists will be free from the influence of personal beliefs, or ideology if you will, if their research/experiments uncover a scientific "proof" that might otherwise contradict their personal beliefs and that they will present the objective science and not skew their results or cherry-pick data................That is one of the reasons why peer review is so important in the field of science.
Quoting 104. TroutMadness:


Hey, be careful if you are traveling, I know you guys don't get this that often

Thanks, but no travel for me. I'm originally from New England, and have had many treacherous drives. When staying put is an option, then that's what I do. I'm a bit concerned for SW LA & I-10. They're under a freezing rain advisory, starting this evening through tomorrow morning. It's heavily traveled, with lots of big rigs.
The guard’s 224th Aviation Regiment used a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter Thursday to deliver milk, eggs, bread and prescription medicines to the 1.2-square-mile island of 460 people.

While the island has a grocery, many islanders hop on a ferry to Crisfield, Md. – 14 miles away – for larger purchases. Ice has made that route impassable. The only way off the island now is by air; the island has a small airport.

Link
118. vis0

Quoting 61. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A nice rainstorm yesterday and overnight in Soo Cal........been a while since the last good rain. Here's some storm rainfall tptals from various locations in Soooo Cal...... due to orographic lifting the mountains got very nice totals of 2-3 inches. A possible storm for this weekend is in the works.



PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
1030 AM PST MONDAY FEB 23 2015
(img here by vis0, see pg#2 of this blog for TEXT version)


Click for actual size (READABLE) or go to pg2 commnent61 of this blogbyte
Below VID was created for another purpose, its SAT views of the weird LOW that added the precip mentioned in cmmnt #61 of THIS BLOBYTE (captured in img above). Can't read totals?, either stretch it in Firefox using app called "image resizer/scaler",  click for real size in another window,  pay to have it displayed on the Times Square MEGATRON TV or go to pg. 2 cmmnt#51 for the original "paper" version. You have a choice, USE IT.
No Taz, these are not the credits to a movie. i poke (fun) cause i luv. (reads like a Patrap T-shirt)
http://youtu.be/EOnDQj2_648 (704x792H)
on the other coast, "mira mas frio, perro la tormeta segue para el Norte/NorteEaste, que estraño!?"
Quoting 107. TroutMadness:


Trout and trout streams, snow, seasons, lots of lakes, - I like Michigan

New England - fall foliage, apple trees, blackberries, blueberries, skiing/snowboarding, spring flowers, tapping sugar maples...

I think a lot of places have quite a lot to offer :)
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:



I like this graphic. I wonder how thick the ice is in the most heavily iced areas.
Quoting 120. LAbonbon:


I like this graphic. I wonder how thick the ice is in the most heavily iced areas.
I still wouldn't trust to walk on the ice even in the mot heavily iced areas.The currents can be strong up under the water even on days where the top looks peaceful.
If the area can grab some moisture tomorrow morning we may see some accumulating snow/sleet before it all turns to rain by ~10 AM.





&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...Freezing Rain Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 am Tuesday for the
following zones: East Feliciana...Pointe Coupee...and West
Feliciana.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight Tuesday for the following
zones: Breton Sound...Chandeleur Sound...coastal waters
from Boothville la to the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Pascagoula MS to
Stake Island la from 20 to 60 nm...coastal waters from
Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la out 20 nm...coastal waters
from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Stake Island la to
the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon out 20 nm...Lake
Borgne...and Mississippi Sound.

MS...Freezing Rain Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 am Tuesday for the
following zones: Amite...Pike...and Wilkinson.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight Tuesday for the following
zones: Breton Sound...Chandeleur Sound...coastal waters
from Boothville la to the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Pascagoula MS to
Stake Island la from 20 to 60 nm...coastal waters from
Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la out 20 nm...coastal waters
from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Stake Island la to
the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon out 20 nm...Lake
Borgne...and Mississippi Sound.

&&

$$
Quoting 41. BahaHurican:

Link



I'm willing to barter that Fran was worse in the Triad than Hugo, maybe not in the Lexington or Asheboro areas but for Greensboro and Burlington it had to be. Some of the areas with older dates; pretty amazing nothing has come near a Hazel or Labor Day or Tampa Bay's last major hurricane
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:




Was just about to post this, I have never seen ice like that on the ocean side of the Eastern Shore. Insane.
Schools have been cancelled here tomorrow in Wilmington..our first snow day..woohoo!

The NAM!!

18Z



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
250 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-2421 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
250 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT
WILL ONLY BE A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF CHOCTAW COUNTY MAY
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...A PERIOD
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES BECOMING SLICK. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL MAKE
HYDROPLANING MORE LIKELY. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING CLEARER AND THE
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME NECESSARY AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Just noting before I head home for the day that parts of the wintry precip mix now heading into AL (then GA) has converted to rain, for the moment, but that folks cannot let their guard down for tomorrow morning in these parts. With temps starting to drop again this evening, the forecast is still for freezing rain overnight in Atlanta (below) and any moisture on the roads will freeze as well..............Gonna be a tricky proposition for commuters tomorrow morning for many parts in the South from Northern LA across to GA and parts of South Carolina. Be safe out there:


Tonight A chance of rain before 3am, then rain or freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

TuesdayRain, snow, and freezing rain likely before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain between 2pm and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Quoting 107. TroutMadness:


Trout and trout streams, snow, seasons, lots of lakes, - I like Michigan


I guess it's all a matter of opinion, and we have trout here, except they are ocean trout. Not to mention the massive amounts of other fish you can catch here on the coast. Also, we have fresh water everywhere here, in fact it's required to build man made lakes for every region of developed land due to frequent heavy precip rates in the summer. Because of this, even in the city, there are a lot of fresh water sources for bass fishing.
We do have seasons as well, Summer is hot, humid and often rainy, while the Fall turns noticeably drier with occasional cool spells behind cold fronts, while trees begin to lose leaves and tropical foliage starts to die off and turn brown like vines and such. By winter, cold fronts are more frequent, warmer days are mild and pleasant and often breezy, and occasionally there are chilly days and colder nights. By Spring, green growth and flowers rapidly begin to fill in as days grow warmer and more humid, yet are still very pleasant and comfortable into May. Spring is my favorite season here.
So yes, we do have seasons.
Like I said, obviously it's a matter of opinion, because snow is one of the things I'm glad we don't have. It would be fun to have on rare occasions, or if we had mountains, it would be fun for skiing/snowboarding.

Other than for winter sports, snow is not something I want, but if you like it, sure!
Quoting 125. VAbeachhurricanes:



Was just about to post this, I have never seen ice like that on the ocean side of the Eastern Shore. Insane.
Especially for late February.Imagine if this pattern came in January.We would have been in some real trouble.Islands can't properly get supplies because of the ice.
Quoting 100. ricderr:

Go ahead, ask us Floridians why we choose to live in this state despite its many obvious flaws.


come july.....when my highs are in the low to mid 90's.....my "feels like" temp is in the 80's........my humidity is less than 30 percent...and my nights hover at 70......no mosquitoes to speak of...no gnats or noseeums....i'll smile remembering one of the reasons i enjoy no longer living in florida


Sure the bugs and humidity can get annoying but I prefer a lush green landscape any day over a dry and dusty one. I was born in Arizona and while the scenery is beautiful, there just isn't enough green and water for my liking. Florida isn't the only place out east that has a lot of bugs and humidity in the summer, really anywhere from the Mississippi river east is a wet climate that means lots of summer bugs and humidity including a lot of mosquitoes. In fact mosquitoes are often even worse up north during the summer than in Florida because they have a shorter breeding season so they go crazy during the summer. In Florida mosquitoes are numerous but are a bit more relaxed because they are alive mostly year round here. I have ran into mosquitoes alive even in January and February even up here in Tallahassee. They are that much more alive in Central and South Florida in winter. Most bugs don't really die in Florida in the winter, they just slow down and stop breeding or hibernate for periods of time.
Just a note for Floridians..the heavy sea fog is again rolling in from the gulf..just 6pm and already its heavy here on the gulf coast...be careful driving
mad beach jedkins right now...........................................
Quoting 126. ncstorm:

Schools have been cancelled here tomorrow in Wilmington..our first snow day..woohoo!

Well, snap! My mind just went on you! Hopefully you actually get snow and not just some horrible ice-drizzly mess.
Late night hello from Germany which had been crossed by the cold front of "Uli" today, leaving some snow - for some hours even down in my Rhine valley. ... Tonight just some very mixed weather news:

Two dead, widespread damage as downpours flood north region
Dominican Today - 23 February 2015, 8:05 AM
Santo Domingo.- Two people dead, more than 20,000 displaced, and tens of thousands of homes flooded in Cibao (north) region towns was the result of the downpours over the weekend. ...
Youtube-Report.

Alpine avalanche risks rise with warmer temperatures
Death toll in France and Switzerland stands at 56 for the season as weather conditions for snow slides worsen.
Rob McElwee | 23 Feb 2015 10:54 GMT

Snow drives Bostonians to Twitter
BBC weather video, 23 February 2015 Last updated at 16:17

And a little contribution to the debate about ideology earlier, worth to read although already some months old:

Climate Science as Culture War
The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology.
By Andrew J. Hoffman, Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2012.
And a last decadent post with news from Norway:

Glacier ice: The world's new luxury ice cube?
The Local, Norway, Published: 21 Feb 2015 00:16 GMT 01:00
Imagine you're lounging in a Dubai sky bar and you get served a vodka martini filtered through thousand-year-old ice mined from a glacier in the far north of Norway. This is the idea behind Norwegian start-up Svaice.
"Our product is 100 per cent natural, more than a thousand years old, and very luxurious," the company boasts on its website. "We guarantee goosebumps and a memorable moment for those who can find it."
It's not a long-term business plan, however, as within less than a hundred years the glacier is projected to have melted away. ...

Whole article see link above.

Imagine some viking teenies like our now ancient Grothar once p***ing into the Norwegian snow which was later compressed into this glacier ice, lol .... Good night everybody!


more cold weather coming next week
Is cold
Nearby Weather Stations at 6:54pm on feb 23 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
13.2 °F
DopplerDon.com
13.1 °F
Rock Hill
12.9 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
16.9 °F
Foxon
11.8 °F
East Haven Town Beach
14.4 °F
east haven morgan point
14.9 °F
Action: Quote | Remove Comment | Modify Comment
# 139

skål -
Quoting BahaHurican:
Link


Oh, a lot of folks up here still remember '38, and even if they don't they know what fields were "all sugarbush before '38" and have all their parents' stories to tell. But Irene sure did a number on us as well, and there are plenty of people still trying to recover.
The CoCoRaHS site that is about a 1/2 mile from
my house just reported .70" for the 2/23 cutoff 7 AM.
That sounds about right, the Airport said .68"...
Quoting 95. Neapolitan:

Go ahead, ask us Floridians why we choose to live in this state despite its many obvious flaws.



But a glimmer of hope for many the following week:





Of course St. Louis is still below average. :/
Quoting 137. BahaHurican:

Well, snap! My mind just went on you! Hopefully you actually get snow and not just some horrible ice-drizzly mess.


Wunderground says 1-3 inches of accumulation, I think it'll be on the low end of that but the humidity has gone up as the temps have dropped since midday so we'll see.
GFS for Next Monday........more snow for new England etc................................
I guess it really is cold in some places...

Quoting 138. barbamz:

Late night hello from Germany which had been crossed by the cold front of "Uli" today, leaving some snow - for some hours even down in my Rhine valley. ... Tonight just some very mixed weather news:

Two dead, widespread damage as downpours flood north region
Dominican Today - 23 February 2015, 8:05 AM
Santo Domingo.- Two people dead, more than 20,000 displaced, and tens of thousands of homes flooded in Cibao (north) region towns was the result of the downpours over the weekend. ...
Youtube-Report.

Alpine avalanche risks rise with warmer temperatures
Death toll in France and Switzerland stands at 56 for the season as weather conditions for snow slides worsen.
Rob McElwee | 23 Feb 2015 10:54 GMT

Snow drives Bostonians to Twitter
BBC weather video, 23 February 2015 Last updated at 16:17

And a little contribution to the debate about ideology earlier, worth to read although already some months old:

Climate Science as Culture War
The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology.
By Andrew J. Hoffman, Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2012.
Hello barba .... that last article is an excellent one, well worth the read. I also strongly recommend the comments section underneath .... lol
151. MahFL
Quoting 2. NativeSun:

Hi all, Lets hope this is not an indication of the winters to come. Hopefully next year the cold will be spread out over a larger area of the country and not as cold, as I hate the cold weather even here in South Florida.


How can it be an indication, when records show the cold is exceptional for this time of year ?
Quoting 147. win1gamegiantsplease:



Wunderground says 1-3 inches of accumulation, I think it'll be on the low end of that but the humidity has gone up as the temps have dropped since midday so we'll see.
I guess Greensboro is more likely to get three inches than Wilmington, looking at the forecasts.... but we shall see. I'm always impressed to see actual snow on the ground at the Carolina coast .....

Quoting 148. LargoFl:

GFS for Next Monday........more snow for new England etc................................



I'm near the rain-snow line again. :/
Quoting 151. MahFL:



How can it be an indication, when records show the cold is exceptional for this time of year ?
I think he means the first sign of a trend. Typical winter patterns, where systems traverse west to east have been scarce the last couple of seasons. He's hoping we go back to a more typical pattern next year.
Quoting 152. BahaHurican:

I guess Greensboro is more likely to get three inches than Wilmington, looking at the forecasts.... but we shall see. I'm always impressed to see actual snow on the ground at the Carolina coast .....




Usually the ocean keeps the moisture from staying frozen through it's entire descent; I think it's supposed to be a snow/sleet mix like last year's January event albeit less and changing over to rain by 10-11 AM. Haven't seen how much the inland state is expected to get, I'll head over to nws Raleigh's discussion in a bit.
Quoting 154. BahaHurican:

I think he means the first sign of a trend. Typical winter patterns, where systems traverse west to east have been scarce the last couple of seasons. He's hoping we go back to a more typical pattern next year.



In other words, it's been a mostly meridianal flow rather than a zonal flow these past couple of winters.
Quoting 149. GeoffreyWPB:

I guess it really is cold in some places...




Whether your out in the snowy cold or in the rain at a park home to live dinosaurs, when you gotta go, ya gotta go.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Sure the bugs and humidity can get annoying but I prefer a lush green landscape any day over a dry and dusty one. I was born in Arizona and while the scenery is beautiful, there just isn't enough green and water for my liking. Florida isn't the only place out east that has a lot of bugs and humidity in the summer, really anywhere from the Mississippi river east is a wet climate that means lots of summer bugs and humidity including a lot of mosquitoes. In fact mosquitoes are often even worse up north during the summer than in Florida because they have a shorter breeding season so they go crazy during the summer. In Florida mosquitoes are numerous but are a bit more relaxed because they are alive mostly year round here. I have ran into mosquitoes alive even in January and February even up here in Tallahassee. They are that much more alive in Central and South Florida in winter. Most bugs don't really die in Florida in the winter, they just slow down and stop breeding or hibernate for periods of time.
It's a little strange how people look at Florida. I think the average non-Floridian would classify Miami as a rainy city. It is, at about 61 inches a year, but I don't think anywhere in Florida beats the Panhandle and south Alabama for rainfall. Tampa averages about 48 inches a year. In a normal year (which hasn't happened lately), I get about 58 inches a year. Pensacola averages 64 inches a year. Probably even more surprising is that Mobile gets a little over 66 inches a year. I wonder how many people think Mobile or Pensacola are rainy cities? I also don't think anywhere in else in Florida gets the intense rainfall and flooding that we've seen in the Panhandle and south Alabama. The Panhandle, even though we joke about it being Lower Alabama, really has a climate that's completely different than the rest of Florida.

I sure hope the cold this year was enough to kill off the pest bugs we have. My water gardens had ice several inches thick that lasted a week during the last cold spell. Anything breeding in standing water should have been pretty well frozen. Both the absolute cold and the extended time it remained cold are highly unusual events, so I hope the bugs haven't figured out a way to make little tiny parkas. :-)
Could warming be caused this? Siberian holes. (Just don't google Siberian Holes - I can't be responsible for the web sites that come up)

Quoting 149. GeoffreyWPB:

I guess it really is cold in some places...




Dats where one goes when perma banned, in the wu cooler.

(surprisingly comfy in a NOLA Late August)
Wednesday into Thursday is looking pretty good so far for snow in Atlanta. The 12z suite for pretty much all the models suggested a decent snow event. 18z was a little disappointing with the GFS showing snow fall a little too far south, but NAM showing a decent hit on the order of 2-4. Will be fun/heartbreaking to see how this event pans out. Sleeting in Atlanta right now, so that is a good sign.


Well thats gonna require a tad mo tabasco seems....,sadly.




MON FEB 23, 2015 AT 10:34 AM PST
After pipeline spill, petroleum confirmed in the fish of the Yellowstone River


In January, 50,000 barrels of oil spilled into the Yellowstone River from a pipeline near Glendive, Montana. At the time, officials said they were "unaware of threats to public safety or health."
Now, more than a month later, officials are offering a sad warning:

Detectable levels of petroleum were found in tests of fish pulled from the Yellowstone River downstream from a broken petroleum pipeline near Glendive last month.
This week, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks advised fishermen to use caution when deciding whether to eat fish caught in the area affected by the oil spill.

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks biologist Trevor Selch said testing was hampered by ice and would continue.
Until all of the tests are complete and the data is analyzed, Selch advised anglers to continue to use caution when deciding whether to eat fish.
This seems like a pretty good indication you should avoid eating any fish caught downstream from the pipeline spill for the foreseeable future.
Quoting 159. Dakster:

Could warming be caused this? Siberian holes. (Just don't google Siberian Holes - I can't be responsible for the web sites that come up)




Sorry, Google couldn't find anything on "Siberian Holes." Did you mean "Siberian ---------?"

@Baha, doesn't appear the Triad or Triangle has any higher chance of seeing precip than the coast. Wednesday night however is a completely different story.
win1gamesgiantsplease - I guess your filter is working well. Anyways - it is on huffington post.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/23/holes-si beria-investigation-safety_n_6736744.html

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
I guess Greensboro is more likely to get three inches than Wilmington, looking at the forecasts.... but we shall see. I'm always impressed to see actual snow on the ground at the Carolina coast .....

Hi Baha. Birmingham is really on board with the Wednesday system. They've already issued winter storm watches for just north of Montgomery and further north. The watch is saying 2-4" of snow in the Birmingham area, and it looks like all snow right now. This is like deja vu all over again. The snow line was north of Birmingham yesterday and now it's crept down to one county north of Montgomery, just like last January. I hope it says up north this time. I don't need another three days cut off from the world thing again.
Light snow, mist and 37F reported at Sugar Land airport next to SW Houston.
Quoting Dakster:
win1gamesgiantsplease - I guess your filter is working well. Anyways - it is on huffington post.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/23/holes-si beria-investigation-safety_n_6736744.html

Link
Hey Dak. Is it still warm up there? We beat you on Sunday with a high of 78. It's 49 here while Birmingham north is in the low 30's and high 20's. If the cold front shown on the map really made it through here, it didn't change much of anything.

Tnose are some strange holes in Siberia. From the little bit I know about explosions from being forced to take an EOD class, the looks of the debris field around the crater itself sure seems like an explosion. That area of Siberia is underlain with huge gas deposits. I suspect these explosions have been happening for some unknown period of time. There are very few people who live in the area, and a helicopter is about the only way you'd see these holes. I guess they can see some of them on satellite so it would be interesting to have a good interpreter go over past satellite pictures and see if any others showed up before these current holes were discovered. By the amount of snow covering the crater rims, it looks like some of the the explosions happened months or maybe years ago. There's kind of an analogue for these holes in the deep waters of the Gulf. The pressure from the gas deposits there have caused some pretty impressive blowout holes, so maybe the mechanism is the same.
Sierra Nevada snowpack is looking pretty grim...
California Snow Water Content

Maybe a little boost this weekend, but I have learned not to expect much from even these meager predictions:
Truckee, CA Forecast
Global warming huh?
I'll care about it when it doesn't go below freezing in NYC for many consecutive years. Warm weather causes far fewer problems than cold, so I'll take all the heat I can get.
Quoting 159. Dakster:

Could warming be caused this? Siberian holes. (Just don't google Siberian Holes - I can't be responsible for the web sites that come up)


Imagine falling in that thing.
@ sar in #167 ... holes do look like blowout explosion pits ... could be connected to melting permafrost , methane release? Siberia has been warmer than normal for quite a few years ... lots of time for them to form.
Quoting 169. coldisbad:

Global warming huh?
I'll care about it when it doesn't go below freezing in NYC for many consecutive years. Warm weather causes far fewer problems than cold, so I'll take all the heat I can get.


LOL! i'm not going to care about global warming until all of my friends and family keel over from heatstroke. and not one minute before.
Quoting 170. washingtonian115:

Imagine falling in that thing.

Actually, I am imagining how much fun it would be to rappel into that thing on a rope.
Quoting 169. coldisbad:

Global warming huh?
I'll care about it when it doesn't go below freezing in NYC for many consecutive years. Warm weather causes far fewer problems than cold, so I'll take all the heat I can get.
Easy to say when it's not your land becoming desertified. IOW you might be singing a different song if you lived in Brazil, or even central California ....
Quoting 131. Jedkins01:



I guess it's all a matter of opinion, and we have trout here, except they are ocean trout. Not to mention the massive amounts of other fish you can catch here on the coast. Also, we have fresh water everywhere here, in fact it's required to build man made lakes for every region of developed land due to frequent heavy precip rates in the summer. Because of this, even in the city, there are a lot of fresh water sources for bass fishing.
We do have seasons as well, Summer is hot, humid and often rainy, while the Fall turns noticeably drier with occasional cool spells behind cold fronts, while trees begin to lose leaves and tropical foliage starts to die off and turn brown like vines and such. By winter, cold fronts are more frequent, warmer days are mild and pleasant and often breezy, and occasionally there are chilly days and colder nights. By Spring, green growth and flowers rapidly begin to fill in as days grow warmer and more humid, yet are still very pleasant and comfortable into May. Spring is my favorite season here.
So yes, we do have seasons.
Like I said, obviously it's a matter of opinion, because snow is one of the things I'm glad we don't have. It would be fun to have on rare occasions, or if we had mountains, it would be fun for skiing/snowboarding.

Other than for winter sports, snow is not something I want, but if you like it, sure!

Good summary of N. Florida/Panhandle weather. It truly is an interesting area in the sense of being able to grow both semi-tropical like things like palm trees or citrus as well as northern trees like silver maple, white ash, and some deciduous northern oaks.
Quoting 169. coldisbad:

Global warming huh?
I'll care about it when it doesn't go below freezing in NYC for many consecutive years. Warm weather causes far fewer problems than cold, so I'll take all the heat I can get.


One potential problem with that is that the consequences of added greenhouse gases are partially delayed by some 30 years. If greenhouse gas emissions were to stop now, Earth would continue to warm for about 30 more years. So if a given person is going to start caring about the consequences that are current at some point, then the time to have acted on that was probably at least 30 years earlier.
Quoting Patrap:


Well thats gonna require a tad mo tabasco seems....,sadly.




MON FEB 23, 2015 AT 10:34 AM PST
After pipeline spill, petroleum confirmed in the fish of the Yellowstone River


In January, 50,000 barrels of oil spilled into the Yellowstone River from a pipeline near Glendive, Montana. At the time, officials said they were "unaware of threats to public safety or health."
Now, more than a month later, officials are offering a sad warning:

Detectable levels of petroleum were found in tests of fish pulled from the Yellowstone River downstream from a broken petroleum pipeline near Glendive last month.
This week, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks advised fishermen to use caution when deciding whether to eat fish caught in the area affected by the oil spill.

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks biologist Trevor Selch said testing was hampered by ice and would continue.
Until all of the tests are complete and the data is analyzed, Selch advised anglers to continue to use caution when deciding whether to eat fish.
This seems like a pretty good indication you should avoid eating any fish caught downstream from the pipeline spill for the foreseeable future.
Really nice almost two hour story about a trip down the Yellowstone river and how pristine the river is on Netflix. This is so sad.
Quoting 170. washingtonian115:

Imagine falling in that thing.


I know. It sounds fun. :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ sar in #167 ... holes do look like blowout explosion pits ... could be connected to melting permafrost , methane release? Siberia has been warmer than normal for quite a few years ... lots of time for them to form.
Dunno, but any place that's basically topsoil over natural gas basins, which includes lots of methane, is subject to these pressure relief blowouts. I think the key is to use past satellite photos to see if these blowouts are historic or recent, and how many might have been seen in the past that maybe only the satellite sees. If there's a number of historic blowouts, I'd be inclined to believe this is just part of the natural cycle with gas under pressure. If they are all recent, global warming and permafrost changes are probably playing a larger role than just the natural cycle.
Quoting coldisbad:
Global warming huh?
I'll care about it when it doesn't go below freezing in NYC for many consecutive years. Warm weather causes far fewer problems than cold, so I'll take all the heat I can get.
It looks like you signed up just to post your view about global warming. I'm sure you understand the science behind the issue. You just have decided not to believe it. There's really nothing I can say that will change your mind. We will certainly find out over the next 50 or so years what's going to happen with the climate. For all of our sake, and our decedent's sake, I hope you're right.
Quoting 169. coldisbad:

Global warming huh?
I'll care about it when it doesn't go below freezing in NYC for many consecutive years. Warm weather causes far fewer problems than cold, so I'll take all the heat I can get.


Maybe a read on the Chicago Heatwave of 1995 where approximately 750 people died in the span of 5 days, mainly poor, elderly, and minorities, is in order. Statements like yours are very ignorant of reality.
Quoting oldnewmex:

Actually, I am imagining how much fun it would be to rappel into that thing on a rope.
LOL. I was thinking the same thing. I was only fair at rappelling but a nice vertical wall like that is a piece of cake. No trees or rocks to catch you on the way down, so it's kowabunga all the way to the bottom. :-)
Quoting 144. VermontStorms:



Oh, a lot of folks up here still remember '38, and even if they don't they know what fields were "all sugarbush before '38" and have all their parents' stories to tell. But Irene sure did a number on us as well, and there are plenty of people still trying to recover.

I don't know...from August through Sept. 2004 is one long hurricane drenched blur in East Central Florida.
No freezing rain here tonight. Radar is surprisingly quiet, not to mention there's some pretty warm air below 650 mb all the way to the surface.

I only care if it snows anyway.
185. skook
I visited denver during this past weekends snowstorm, and thought I'd share some picpictures.

Some neat cloud formation while driving up highway 70 through the mountains.


Light snow cover before tHe storm at Red Rocks.


Snow falling Saturday afternoon from cheesman park.

More snow falling Sunday evening, about 8 inches total.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 184. KoritheMan:

No freezing rain here tonight. Radar is surprisingly quiet, not to mention there's some pretty warm air below 650 mb all the way to the surface.

I only care if it snows anyway.

Our forecast of freezing rain all day and through the night busted pretty bad. We barely got a trace today while the freezing line remained just to the south of me. :( No precip.
I seriously thought it wouldn't bust this time.
Tomorrow's event is looking quite sneaky here in eastern North Carolina. The NWS offices in Raleigh, Morehead City, and Wilmington aren't expecting much accumulation -- generally near or less than an inch of snow -- but model guidance has become increasingly bullish this afternoon. The latest 0z NAM outputs 3-5" of snow here. I certainly won't be complaining if that comes to fruition.

Quoting 131. Jedkins01:



I guess it's all a matter of opinion, and we have trout here, except they are ocean trout. Not to mention the massive amounts of other fish you can catch here on the coast. Also, we have fresh water everywhere here, in fact it's required to build man made lakes for every region of developed land due to frequent heavy precip rates in the summer. Because of this, even in the city, there are a lot of fresh water sources for bass fishing.
We do have seasons as well, Summer is hot, humid and often rainy, while the Fall turns noticeably drier with occasional cool spells behind cold fronts, while trees begin to lose leaves and tropical foliage starts to die off and turn brown like vines and such. By winter, cold fronts are more frequent, warmer days are mild and pleasant and often breezy, and occasionally there are chilly days and colder nights. By Spring, green growth and flowers rapidly begin to fill in as days grow warmer and more humid, yet are still very pleasant and comfortable into May. Spring is my favorite season here.
So yes, we do have seasons.
Like I said, obviously it's a matter of opinion, because snow is one of the things I'm glad we don't have. It would be fun to have on rare occasions, or if we had mountains, it would be fun for skiing/snowboarding.

Other than for winter sports, snow is not something I want, but if you like it, sure!


No you don't - you have speckled 'trout' - which are not trout/salmonids at all (they're a type of drum). Trout die in water temperatures over about 65 degrees - not enough dissolved oxygen beyond that. There are sea-run trout, but not at that latitude.
Sorry, I'm a pedantic wretch :)
Though after waking up to -30 windchills in Minneapolis this morning, and having spent my early years in Okaloosa County, I can't disagree with your sentiment. There are more seasons down there than up here - we just get winter and road construction. The daily freeze/thaw cycle in the spring just wrecks the roads, and we spend all summer trying to repair last year's damage before the cycle begins anew.
Crazy, but probably the best raw footage video of Hurricane Charley as it passed through SW FL.

Hurricane Charley Raw

{warning explicit language, viewer discretion is advised}
Quoting 190. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Crazy, but probably the best raw footage video of Hurricane Charley as it passed through SW FL.

Hurricane Charley Raw

{warning explicit language, viewer discretion is advised}

I think this is my favorite.

View on YouTube
Quoting 187. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tomorrow's event is looking quite sneaky here in eastern North Carolina. The NWS offices in Raleigh, Morehead City, and Wilmington aren't expecting much accumulation -- generally near or less than an inch of snow -- but model guidance has become increasingly bullish this afternoon. The latest 0z NAM outputs 3-5" of snow here. I certainly won't be complaining if that comes to fruition.


Now if that second system currently in the four corners region could move just a bit slower and allow the alberta clipper coming in from the north west to transfer it's energy into it then by the end of the week my area......................
I think the chances of me getting snow tomorrow and Wednesday are quite good. Most models saying at least an inch in the greater Greenville/upstate SC area through Thursday.

Eric
Quoting 190. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Crazy, but probably the best raw footage video of Hurricane Charley as it passed through SW FL.

Hurricane Charley Raw

{warning explicit language, viewer discretion is advised}


Theiss' shot at the gas station pretty impressive. It's too bad little to no video exists of Andrew coming into South Dade, if any light was possible to manage it probably would be incredible.
Radar shows mixed precip over the area, but besides maybe flurries I don't hear anything and with contacts out and about to hit the hay I'll wait till the morning to see what's up. G'night all.
Freezing rain advisory for Charleston, SC. Interested to see if the "event" dumps more than the "trace" that is being called for. Looks like some of the models are putting more frozen precip down here than what has been forecast.



It's a miracle, gfs showing snow that isn't 200 hours away? I have to be hallucinating. :)
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Crazy, but probably the best raw footage video of Hurricane Charley as it passed through SW FL.

Hurricane Charley Raw

{warning explicit language, viewer discretion is advised}
Here we have two guys who know nothing about hurricanes, in a rental car with half a tank of gas, who don't know where they are, totally blasted, and driving around in a hurricane.

You have entered....The Twilight Zone! (Cue music)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Quoting nash36:
Freezing rain advisory for Charleston, SC. Interested to see if the "event" dumps more than the "trace" that is being called for. Looks like some of the models are putting more frozen precip down here than what has been forecast.
No wintry precipitation of any kind being reported in Alabama as of 10:00 CST. Only far northern Alabama is at or below freezing, Most of the freezing rain from Mississippi is turning to all rain just before it crosses the state line. At least for the Birmingham forecast are, I don't think the winter weather advisory is going to verify. Nice little rain blob just to the west of me but, on the present track, it's going to slide to the south of me. Figures.
Quoting opal92nwf:

I think this is my favorite.

View on YouTube
Just the fact there's no constant yelling and cursing makes that a better video. The editing helped also. I wonder if the dunderheads from the other video ever saw this? It does show that cars and trucks really do tip over in hurricanes. Probably would have scared them...
Quoting 197. nash36:

Freezing rain advisory for Charleston, SC. Interested to see if the "event" dumps more than the "trace" that is being called for. Looks like some of the models are putting more frozen precip down here than what has been forecast.


I'm interested to see what happens as well. I am from near Charleston, SC and they are saying about 1/10 of an inch so far.
Quoting 202. sar2401:

No wintry precipitation of any kind being reported in Alabama as of 10:00 CST. Only far northern Alabama is at or below freezing, Most of the freezing rain from Mississippi is turning to all rain just before it crosses the state line. At least for the Birmingham forecast are, I don't think the winter weather advisory is going to verify. Nice little rain blob just to the west of me but, on the present track, it's going to slide to the south of me. Figures.


Hey Sar. Looks like the frozen precip is now a bust here, too. Warm nose is sticking around, and our low temp looks to stay a couple of degrees above freezing. I'm with you....Figures. They closed schools for nothing. I'm actually surprised the advisory is still in effect.
To add: If it's gonna be THIS cold and raw, I would prefer ice and snow. Nothing worse than a nasty cold rain.

At least we can all stay home and take pictures, since this doesn't happen here too often. Oh well.
Quoting 121. washingtonian115:

I still wouldn't trust to walk on the ice even in the mot heavily iced areas.The currents can be strong up under the water even on days where the top looks peaceful.


you can walk on it in the creeks.
One can make out the cloud seeding chemtrails easily in this water vapor image :p Dense fog advisory for us, tonight and morning. Started to roll in off the GOM around 3 this afternoon. I love sea fog, especially during the daytime. Have a great night everyone.

Sleet has been off and on in Atlanta. Mixing with rain sometimes.
The low is forecast to go below zero again tonight. This is crazy. Subzero temperatures are something you see in the Mid Atlantic every few years or so but this will be the 4th or 5th time this winter. Our average low for this time of year is around 25-30.
Quoting nash36:


Hey Sar. Looks like the frozen precip is now a bust here, too. Warm nose is sticking around, and our low temp looks to stay a couple of degrees above freezing. I'm with you....Figures. They closed schools for nothing. I'm actually surprised the advisory is still in effect.
I am too. The latest AFD acknowledged the fact that anything frozen has been slow to set up and that the dewpoints didn't look good for wet bulbing...but there might be some ice on a roadway somewhere, so they continued the advisory. They made it even more confusing by including the Wednesday advisory in the current advisory. They also just gone done posting storm reports that were five hours old. BMX seems a little confused lately. I have some low topped thunderstorms to the west of me with lightning showing up on the detector. As they get closer to me, it's like they hit a giant dry slot and dissolve. Figures. :-)
While the mid-atlantic freezes, Alaska is baking, breaking heat records. This is causing all sorts of races to get canceled due to lack of snow.

It is still above freezing at my house at 9:10pm...

This winter is upside down this year.

Be safe driving out there. I bet there are not that many sand or salt trucks so the roads are sure to be treacherous.
Quoting GatorWX:
One can make out the cloud seeding chemtrails easily in this water vapor image :p Dense fog advisory for us, tonight and morning. Started to roll in off the GOM around 3 this afternoon. I love sea fog, especially during the daytime. Have a great night everyone.

Hey, Gator, haven't seen you for a while. That streak across the Gulf should be coming from a low in Mexico that's supposed to be in the eastern Gulf by Wednesday. If that moisture plume reflects the track of the low we can kiss any snow in Southeast goodbye.
Quoting Dakster:
While the mid-atlantic freezes, Alaska is baking, breaking heat records. This is causing all sorts of races to get canceled due to lack of snow.

It is still above freezing at my house at 9:10pm...

This winter is upside down this year.

Be safe driving out there. I bet there are not that many sand or salt trucks so the roads are sure to be treacherous.
Hi, Dak. Pretty consistent warm weather up there, but I think a big patterns shift starts next week, where you and West Coast gets stormy and cooler and we finally return from the deep freeze. I sure hope that's what's going to happen anyway. Here I was feeling sorry for you having to go through the rough winter in Alaska and you've been warmer than a lot of eastern US. :-)
Quoting 214. sar2401:

Hi, Dak. Pretty consistent warm weather up there, but I think a big patterns shift starts next week, where you and West Coast gets stormy and cooler and we finally return from the deep freeze. I sure hope that's what's going to happen anyway. Here I was feeling sorry for you having to go through the rough winter in Alaska and you've been warmer than a lot of eastern US. :-)


Warm is bad here... I don't need or care for the way below zero stuff, but below FREEZING consistently would be nice until summer and then ABOVE freezing consistently... The teeter-totter with rain involved makes it fun when it goes below freezing. It is the ONLY thing that will cancel school. Snow and low temps won't. -40F and the kiddos go to school, 10 foot of snow, the kiddos go to school... Ice on the roadways which could cause buses slide off and flip over - no school. (And that has happened)
216. vis0
Animation::(pmsl 1hr/fronts 3hrs)



http://youtu.be/pY0EjOC_p18 (800x600)




Vis0 - That is hypnotic with the change from monochrome to color...
Preliminary summary of Cyclone Lam. Data analysis for final assessment is underway. By Northern Territory BOM Regional Office.



On Sunday 15 February 2015, a tropical low over the northwest Coral Sea crossed Cape York Peninsula and entered the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria. It developed quickly during Monday 16 February and Tuesday 17 February as it moved slowly and steadily towards the west. The tropical low was named Tropical Cyclone Lam at 3:30 am CST on Tuesday 17 February while located over central parts of the northern Gulf of Carpentaria, about 340 km east northeast of Nhulunbuy. TC Lam strengthened to a category 2 tropical cyclone by 9:30 am CST on Tuesday 17 February.

For the following 24 hours, TC Lam continued moving west northwest at between 10 to 15 km/h towards the northern Wessel Islands and developed at a slower rate. Gale force winds at Cape Wessel Automatic Weather Station began early on Wednesday 18 February and increased steadily throughout the morning as the eyewall of TC Lam approached. A maximum wind gust of 170 km/h was observed at Cape Wessel at 11:35 am CST on Wednesday 18 February and a minimum pressure of 969.9 hPa was observed at 5:02 pm CST on Wednesday 18 February.

TC Lam was upgraded to category 3 intensity (Severe Tropical Cyclone) at 11:30 am CST on Wednesday 18 February when located 125 km north of Nhulunbuy. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam remained slow moving near the northern Wessel Islands during Wednesday until about midnight when it took a turn towards the south. The very destructive core tracked parallel and just offshore to the west of the Wessel Islands throughout Thursday 19 February, while intensifying further and affected Arnhem communities on Elcho Island as well as Milingimbi and Ramingining. Impacts included structural damage to housing and infrastructure as well as power and communications outages.

At 7:30 pm CST on Thursday 19 February Severe TC Lam was upgraded to category 4 intensity, when approximately 20 km north northwest of Galiwinku on Elcho Island. The centre of Severe TC Lam crossed the mainland coast at 2 am CST on Friday 20 February about 15 km southeast of Milingimbi and 15 km north northeast of Ramingining as a category 4 tropical cyclone with peak wind gust estimated at 260 km/h.

Severe TC Lam weakened quickly while moving steadily south southwest over central Arnhem Land and was downgraded to below tropical cyclone strength at 4:30 pm CST on Friday 20 February, approximately 75 km southwest of Bulman. The tropical system produced heavy rain over parts of Arnhem, Carpentaria, Daly and Gregory forecast districts, including 258.5 mm at Diljin Hill in the Waterhouse River catchment in the 24 hours to 9 am on Saturday 21 February, which contributed to moderate flooding in the Waterhouse River at Beswick Bridge.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam was the first tropical cyclone to affect the Northern Territory for the 2014-2015 season and was the first severe tropical cyclone to affect the Northern Territory since Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica in April 2006.

All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.


Coastal Crossing Details
Crossing time: 2am CST Friday 20 February 2015
Crossing location: 15km southeast of Milingimbi
Category when crossing the coast: 4



Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 4
Maximum sustained wind speed: 185 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 260 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 943 hPa


Taken from Link
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20142015
10:00 AM RET February 24 2015
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R (996 hPa) located at 16.1S 71.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
Extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity 2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.0S 70.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 18.0S 69.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 20.7S 67.9E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 23.6S 67.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
==================
During the last 6 hours, the convection has strengthened near the center and convective bands have begun wrapping around the center in the eastern semi-circle in relationship with the decreasing vertical wind shear. The minimal pressure is estimated thanks to the buoy number 53523.

Mid-level ridge is shifting eastwards. System is therefore tracking globally southwestwards. It is expected to keep this bearing until Thursday. Thereafter, it is expected to turn south southeastwards under the double influences of the mid-level ridge that is expected to be located at this range to the northeast and a weakness to the south.

On this forecast track, the vertical wind shear should become weak and the system should take benefit of a good divergence. Therefore, system is expected to intensify more clearly.

On Wednesday, upper level divergence is expected to decrease in the western semi-circle in relationship with the arrival of upper level trough. This effect being offset by a boosted poleward outflow.

On Saturday, shifting over marginal heat oceanic contents and experiencing a strengthening westerly vertical wind shear, system is expected to begin to weaken and to loose progressively its pure tropical characteristics.
Quoting 158. sar2401:

It's a little strange how people look at Florida. I think the average non-Floridian would classify Miami as a rainy city. It is, at about 61 inches a year, but I don't think anywhere in Florida beats the Panhandle and south Alabama for rainfall. Tampa averages about 48 inches a year. In a normal year (which hasn't happened lately), I get about 58 inches a year. Pensacola averages 64 inches a year. Probably even more surprising is that Mobile gets a little over 66 inches a year. I wonder how many people think Mobile or Pensacola are rainy cities? I also don't think anywhere in else in Florida gets the intense rainfall and flooding that we've seen in the Panhandle and south Alabama. The Panhandle, even though we joke about it being Lower Alabama, really has a climate that's completely different than the rest of Florida.

I sure hope the cold this year was enough to kill off the pest bugs we have. My water gardens had ice several inches thick that lasted a week during the last cold spell. Anything breeding in standing water should have been pretty well frozen. Both the absolute cold and the extended time it remained cold are highly unusual events, so I hope the bugs haven't figured out a way to make little tiny parkas. :-)

Looking at lower Alabama, we have a rainfall average in the low 60's around Mobile and extreme south south Alabama, but rain gauge sites for the rest of South Alabama through North Alabama are =generally in the 52-58 inch range with some variance beyond that, basically the same amount of rain as Central Florida, but less dramatic seasonal differences in precip, more spread out throughout the area.
Keep in mind that Tampa is anomalous as far as rainfall goes, it's the driest rainfall site in Florida outside of the keys. The other sites around the Tampa Bay area and Central FL are generally from 52 to 58 inches including St. Petersburg: 54 and Bradenton: 56 . Tampa International airport is the only site in Central Florida that doesn't average above 50 inches in Central Florida and often gets strangely less rain than the rest of Tampa and the Tampa area.

South Florida however is more like the Panhandle and Mobile area:

West Palm Beach: 62 inches
Fort Lauderdale: 66 inches
Haileah(Miami-Dade County): 70 inches
and of course Miami as you mentioned: 61 inches

Source:Link

Keep in mind these are the more recent 1981 to 2010 climate data updates, which are a bit wetter in Central and South Florida than the old climate averages.
Also the difference is that while South Florida has even drier Springs and Winters than Central Florida, it has even longer and rainier summers, with the rainy season from May to October, and average rainfall near 10 inches in rainy season months.
Overall though, Alabama and Florida are rainy states, with both states being able to be divided into multiple sub climates. I think South Alabama could also be looked at more like Florida compared to the northern half of Alabama in the same way that northern Florida is more like Alabama than the southern half of Florida, lol.

Also regarding the cold up there, I'm not so sure if it will hold back the bugs lol, look at how bad the bugs can be up north in moist areas like the northeast and great lakes, they are terrible up there, believe me I've been up there in the summer, mosquitoes can be horrific around lakes and ponds up there, lol. Like I mentioned it's because the bugs have a shorter window to live, so their populations explode with excitement during the shorter summers there.

Also not sure if you've seen this yet, but in Tallahassee, despite the brutal late season cold we've had, a touch more mild than yours, all of the sudden grass and grass flowers have started to sprout up in place of the cold killed dead grass lol. And wildlife is suddenly happy and noisy during the day and night here.
It's almost like everything knows that winter is coming to an end. It could also be that really Spring starts to always show signs here in the end of February.
Quoting 190. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Crazy, but probably the best raw footage video of Hurricane Charley as it passed through SW FL.

Hurricane Charley Raw

{warning explicit language, viewer discretion is advised}


Wow I've never seen that footage before, absolutely amazing footage of the hurricane unfolding, and that damage in Port Charlotte looked like a tornado strike.

With that said, I can't believe they did that, they are lucky to get out that without significant damage to the vehicle or injury. They themselves admitted that they could have been hit by flying debris. One thing that they were wrong about too is that they were confident that the vehicle couldn't be overturned. But there were a lot of overturned vehicles in Charley, and those winds can easily blow out car windows as well, as shown in their own footage of other vehicles with blown out windows.

You'll notice they were the only vehicle driving around in that hurricane during that intensity. All other storm chasing video from Charley feature vehicles parked by buildings or an overpass hill and using it to shield the vehicle from the full force of the wind and debris.

In fact part of the reason deaths and injuries were relatively low is that so many people strongly listened to the warning and either evacuated or moved to an interior safe room. Add the good human response and relatively strong building construction in the Punta Gorda area left them faring pretty well as far as human safety despite the immense destruction.

If it weren't for that it could have even been worse, as Charley was brutal wind wise thanks to it's rapid intensification prior to landfall. Video seems to support that the hurricane did not seem to have nearly as much land friction wind reduction from the NHC official windspeed designation that normally happens when a hurricane transitions from the less friction ocean to more friction land.



Nine below zero F at the current 3am hour in the new siberia of South-Central New Hampshire.
223. vis0
SHOULD BE UP by ~0410 AM EST. ...Feb 24th i hope. (its being processed)
4km IR4.
http://youtu.be/mzHe32YORm4 (660x612)




I thought this was interesting, much of the south has indeed been a bit drier than average over the past 90 days except for eastern NC, Tallahassee area through south and southeast GA, and Central Florida.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
416 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-06 6>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-C ARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-C OBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOU GLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORD ON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY -HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMP KIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGA N-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY- SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR- TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WA LTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX -WILKES-
WILKINSON-
416 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TODAY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 85 THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY SOME SLEET
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE GREATER CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARROLLTON TO
ATLANTA TO HOMER LINE...AND MAINLY THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM A DUSTING UP TO 2.0
INCHES... WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS MORNING. THIS WINTRY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 2 PM TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS /ATLWSWFFC/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA COULD SPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA FROM MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY MID THIS
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.



$$
Quoting wartsttocs:
Nine below zero F at the current 3am hour in the new siberia of South-Central New Hampshire.


Lebanon airport is showing -24 currently.
Morning Largo et al.

Currently 70 and foggy here in Nassau. Not looking forward to the early morning drive, since it is unlikely to clear before I have to go.... :o/
Dusting of snow here in Charlotte with the heavier stuff just beginning. People went to bed expecting flurries… going to be a nasty morning rush hour!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Could someone explain what this means?
Certainly: Willie Soon has for years been taking money to produce "deliverables" (his words) for fossil fuel interests. That industry, in turn, rewards him annually with a six figure pile of cash. Soon repeatedly failed to disclose this sweet little arrangement in numerous published papers as required. That's a major violation of scientific ethics. He's been caught, and now the shrinking denialist side, seeing one of their "heroes" being publicly called out for being the untrustworthy stack o'lies he is, is making weak and feeble attempts to save his severely tarnished (to the point of disrepute) reputation.
#229 It's ideological nonsense that you seem to have copy/pasted from Breitbart where a simple link can do. If you want to know what it means, it means you get your information on climate science from poor sources.

Soon failed to disclose his funding in at least 8 papers where the journals required him to do so. That is a violation of ethics. Taking funding doesn't mean your work is compromised, that is why you disclose it for potential conflicts of interest, however, taking funding and failing to report it not only raises many questions as to the validity of the work, but is a breach of standard scientific ethics. Soon's work was fringe at best, being published mainly in low ranking journals and not being part of the actual scientific discourse on climate change.

Beyond that, the paper the article refers to has been shredded by the scientific community and is now under an investigation by the Chinese Academy of Sciences for failing to disclose funding and has received many responses to the journal as the "model" they claimed to have created isn't a new model at all, but a very well known basic climate model, a Zero-dimensional energy balance model, that has been used for decades for conceptual studies of the climate system. The original idea is generally attributed to the work by M. I. Budyko (1969). The paper fails to acknowledge this and may make it technically plagiarized.
After denier-gate Willie Soon is still sourced? I guess that is not as crazy as throwing Monckton in there. After all, the guy with the cure to the common cold and AIDS has to count for something doesn't he?

11 below zero F at 6 am
If a member puts down words not their own, credit and/or a source should be given. It leaves others to wonder whose words, thoughts and opinions have been 'borrowed'.
Quoting 234. wartsttocs:

After denier-gate Willie Soon is still sourced? I guess that is not as crazy as throwing Monckton in there. After all, the guy with the cure to the common cold and AIDS has to count for something doesn't he?

11 below zero F at 6 am

Was just looking at the WunderMap and national temps. New England, upstate New York, over to Ohio & SE Canada are much colder than anywhere else. Was surprised to see that.
waiting to see if the price of fuel has any major affect on state revenues. if a bad one makes landfall like a 1928 it could bust the states bank.
Quoting 233. Naga5000:

#229 It's ideological nonsense that you seem to have copy/pasted from Breitbart where a simple link can do. If you want to know what it means, it means you get your information on climate science from poor sources.

....

Beyond that, the paper the article refers to has been shredded by the scientific community and is now under an investigation by the Chinese Academy of Sciences for failing to disclose funding...


Or as Gavin Schmidt put it

“the Monckton et. al [sic] paper is complete trash”

the Stoat added

I was conversing with a friend who would probably rather be nameless, and I said

I confess, I didn’t even bother reading it, or even the few blog posts that have mentioned it, because it seemed so obviously drivel. We expect no less from M’Lord. I’d also assumed that it was *uninteresting* drivel – do let me know if I’m wrong about that.


To which I got the reply “I’m not sure it’s coherent enough to count as drivel.


"Not coherent enough to count as drivel", an apt description of anything that has ever come from Soon, Monckton, Watts or any of the other "denier's darlings" .
Quoting 235. LAbonbon:

If a member puts down words not their own, credit and/or a source should be given. It leaves others to wonder whose words, thoughts and opinions have been 'borrowed'.


I'd call it a text book example of plagiarism.
Quoting 181. Naga5000:



Maybe a read on the Chicago Heatwave of 1995 where approximately 750 people died in the span of 5 days, mainly poor, elderly, and minorities, is in order. Statements like yours are very ignorant of reality.

I'm sure far more people have died of cold related weather than heat waves. There is a reason first humans evolved in Africa and not Alaska.
Quoting 240. coldisbad:


I'm sure far more people have died of cold related weather than heat waves. There is a reason first humans evolved in Africa and not Alaska.



Because there aren't any apes to evolve from in Alaska?


Thick, soupy fog has infiltrated the Tampa Bay area again today. This fog at the beach might persist for the entire day. Very humid air mass in place.



The upper low spinning near Arizona will be the next source of rain for FL, according to the NWS.
Quoting 243. tampabaymatt:



The upper low spinning near Arizona will be the next source of rain for FL, according to the NWS.


GFS has finally trended toward the wetter Euro, CMC, and NAVGEM for the days Thursday, Friday, & Saturday. We could see some solid totals those 3 days combined across C FL with up to 2" in some areas maybe more if we see thunderstorms involved. Speaking of thunderstorms we have some heading for the west coast of FL this morning from the Gulf.
Quoting 243. tampabaymatt:



The upper low spinning near Arizona will be the next source of rain for FL, according to the NWS.

Morning, Matt. You can see it cross the country here, on the looped surface map forecasts
Continental United States Extremes
Mon's High Temperature: 85 at West Kendall
Mon's Low Temperature: 36 BELOW ZERO at 6 Miles East Of Champion Mi

Sub surface warm pool continues to expand with now 4C anomalies beginning to show up. Pretty much all models except for 1 or 2 surface this warm pool across Nino 1&2 come June just a few months away so well see what happens.

Quoting 241. yonzabam:



Because there aren't any apes to evolve from in Alaska?
we must also remember the continents were not where they are today..think pangea{sp?}
Quoting 227. BahaHurican:

Morning Largo et al.

Currently 70 and foggy here in Nassau. Not looking forward to the early morning drive, since it is unlikely to clear before I have to go.... :o/

good morning, yes very foggy here also.
Quoting 250. LargoFl:

good morning, yes very foggy here also.


Good morning Largo!
Good Morning,

currently snowing in Wilmington..



Quoting 252. StormTrackerScott:



Good morning Largo!
good morning scott
Quoting 235. LAbonbon:

If a member puts down words not their own, credit and/or a source should be given. It leaves others to wonder whose words, thoughts and opinions have been 'borrowed'.

Absolutely, to copy and paste without a source is not ethical. I have said that before and had comments like "it's only a blog," and so on really discouraged me.
The Portlight "Getting it Right" Workshop will begin at the top of the Hour 9am EST,click here for LIVESTREAM feed


T

The workshop will provide tools to facilitate full integration and inclusion in all aspects of emergency preparedness and response. Speakers include representatives from FEMA, the American Red Cross, and disability stakeholder organizations.
All schools including UNCW closed though public schools were closed by last night. Not much at all on the ground by me but some more should be falling soon (currently dry here) before it changes to mix and rain.
Morning all! Showing 31.5 at our nearest weather station with a light steady rain, waiting to see if and when we'll transition over to freezing rain in our area. Either way, it's a work from home day, so I'm not complaining! =)
Lots of lightning this morning being detected across the Eastern Gulf and these storms are racing toward the Tampa Bay area. Hundreds of strikes just in the last hour. Quite the lightning show this morning in the Gulf.

Nice link below showing strikes every minute right now.

Link

Here is a zoomed in version below. Yikes!
Link
Quoting LargoFl:
we must also remember the continents were not where they are today..think pangea{sp?}
Pangea it was. The leftovers are places like the Red Sea, where the continental breakup continues on a small scale. It appears from geology that most of the continents as we know them were pretty much done moving around about 100 million years ago. Man has been around for a radar blip of time by comparison, maybe 2.5 million years at the outside. The basic layout of climate, like cold in the north and hot at the equator was well in place long before we showed up.
From the freezer here in New York
Just 0F this morning, hard time trying to get the car warm inside




NWS credit/FB
Tampa get ready as it is going to get loud in a couple of hours as these storms roll in.

Quoting 258. Patrap:

Icy roads in Shreveport

Looks like lots of road closures, including I-49, I-20, etc.
Quoting 262. MaxWeather:

From the freezer here in New York
Just 0F this morning, hard time trying to get the car warm inside




NWS credit/FB


69 and very humid in Orlando
Got down to 5 degrees at my house and its a icy mess in places out there.I'm sure many people in the DMV are learning how glaciers are formed now XD.
Quoting 261. sar2401:

Pangea it was. The leftovers are places like the Red Sea, where the continental breakup continues on a small scale. It appears from geology that most of the continents as we know them were pretty much done moving around about 100 million years ago. Man has been around for a radar blip of time by comparison, maybe 2.5 billion years at the outside. The basic layout of climate, like cold in the north and hot at the equator was well in place long before we showed up.

billion?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
517 am EST Tuesday Feb 24 2015

Short term (today through wednesday)...a weak cold front located
just north of the County Warning Area will slide into the region today but will
have little impact on low level moisture as a deep westerly flow
continues to Pump Gulf moisture across the region. This means sea
fog will be in no hurry to dissipate today and in fact is expected
to remain offshore through the day. The sea fog may finally drift
south and be confined in southern marine zones by 00z Wednesday due to
some minimal influence of the front. Extremely high moisture in
low to middle levels may produce a few showers...light rain or even
drizzle due to moisture convergence in already saturated airmass
as well as some weak cold air advection off the surface into the region. Jet streak
just north may also help trigger some elevate precipitation as
well...mainly in northern areas. That said...high GFS probability of precipitation in Tampa
area are an outlier and prefer most other guidance which keeps
only minimal probability of precipitation across cen zones.

A warm front will lift north on Wednesday as low pressure system
develops to the west in response to approaching shortwave. Clouds and
probability of precipitation remain in forecast...especially Tampa northward due to continued
saturated airmass and some overrunning north of the boundary as it
lifts north. Highest probability of precipitation will be in far north which will remain
north of warm front the longest and also will be in most favorable
position of aforementioned jet streak. Any stronger convection
associated west/ the low pressure system is expected in overnight period -
see below. Low level wind fields will really begin responding to
the surface low to the west late in the day. Sea fog may move back to
the north impacting Tampa Bay area once again per dewpoint/SST
forecasts and sref visibility probs.

Middle/long term (wednesday night - monday)...the upper-level low that
is currently over Arizona will have opened up into a trough and be
moving through the northeast Gulf Wednesday night and into the
Atlantic on Thursday. The upper-level pattern will continue to
feature a broad upper-level trough over most of the nation through
Friday. Another vigorous short-wave will drop into the southwestern
U.S. Over the weekend helping to build a ridge over the eastern half
of the country.

As for details...the energy moving across the northeast Gulf
Wednesday night will support a large area of showers and even some
thunderstorms along a surface cold frontal boundary. We may see some
organization to the storms as the upper-level dynamics coincide with
a 50 knot low-level jet over the Nature Coast Wednesday evening...
but the dynamics lift rapidly out to the northeast after that with a
much lower potential for organized storms farther south. Still too
early to say whether or not we will see severe storms north of the
Tampa Bay area...but there may be enough shear to overcome the
limited instability before energy transfers to the Atlantic. The
primary threat would be damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.
The cold shelf waters may provide too much low-level stability to
support any significant tornado threat. The front will slow its
southward progression with showers and storms lingering through
Thursday.
This morning commute in the Peach State

Atlanta, GA


I-575 Canton, GA
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:
All schools including UNCW closed though public schools were closed by last night. Not much at all on the ground by me but some more should be falling soon (currently dry here) before it changes to mix and rain.
Pretty quiet on the ice storm front in Alabama today. The northern areas that were cold enough for snow or ice mostly didn't get any precipitation and places that did get precipitation, like me, weren't anywhere near cold enough for problems. I got 0.44 overnight and now there's widespread dense fog over much of south central and south Alabama. No advisories about that though as Birmingham busily works on refining the HWO wording about "residual icing" for areas where there weren't any icing problems reported to begin with. It's almost like they've forgotten there are other weather hazards than ice. :-)
Quoting LAbonbon:

billion?
Rats! Million, of course. I got on a roll with the billions. :-)
This model shows 7 inches of snow for D.C.I'm taking this with a grain of salt.
Link
Tomorrow looking to be a real borderline event for Atlanta. SREF plumes are half and half. Some show no snow, others show 4-6 inches.
Quoting 271. sar2401:

Rats! Million, of course. I got on a roll with the billions. :-)

No worries. I did the exact same thing on Rood's blog a little while ago :)
Quoting 263. StormTrackerScott:

Tampa get ready as it is going to get loud in a couple of hours as these storms roll in.


its very very foggy over here even a few miles inland.. how will that affect the storms coming in
Good Morning. Just spoke to the Daughter in ATL; light but steady snow at the moment in the NE part of town. Here is the NWS highlight for the day:

Wintry precipitation for southern U.S. through midweek

A series of weather disturbances will bring rounds of wintry weather to parts of the southern and southeastern U.S. through Wednesday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain will be possible from the Gulf Coast to Carolinas through Tuesday, and then another round of wintry precipitation will overspread the same area on Wednesday.
Quoting 275. intampa:

its very very foggy over here even a few miles inland.. how will that affect the storms coming in


Those storms in the Gulf are moving rapidly toward the Tampa are not severe but these storms do have lots of lightning with them and the lightning count is going insane as we speak about 150 miles due west of Tampa.

No model latched onto this disturbance that is heading for the West coast of FL today so ran chances at 20% should actually be much higher based on what is heading this way. Very bubbly in the eastern Gulf this morning.

Quoting LAbonbon:

Looks like lots of road closures, including I-49, I-20, etc.
Morning, Bonnie. Somehow, except for a couple of counties in far NW AL, we escaped almost all the freezing rain. It was weird last night watching the freezing rain from Mississippi cross the state line and turn to just rain. Most of the rain was shunted down my way, so Birmingham picked up just 0.01" overnight and I got 0.44". The temperature spread is still pretty impressive this morning as well, with 41 for me and 30 for Birmingham. I'm now up to 1.05" since Sunday, so I'm closing on on the 2.55" the WPC forecast by midnight tomorrow. Sure. :-)
Quoting 240. coldisbad:


I'm sure far more people have died of cold related weather than heat waves. There is a reason first humans evolved in Africa and not Alaska.



The difference is heat related deaths tend to happen quickly as they are directly caused by increases in temperature (heat stroke e.g.), whereas cold deaths are more likely to occur over time (flu and other disease related death). Shelter is readily available to stave off exposure to extreme cold even in the most dire of socioeconomic circumstances in most of the modernized world. Overall cold kills more over a longer period of time, however, the rate of death is much higher during heat waves increasing with duration of the event.

So please, rely on facts and not feels, it's a bit more complicated than your initial statement, and deserves a bit more respect in talking about it.

The forecast of zonal wind anomalies has shown a strengthening of the currently occurring WWB over the last few days.

Presslord,AKA Paul Timmons, President Portlight....is beginning the Workshop opening.
Nice to see areas in the south are getting in on some snow

It is a full House at the Getting it Right Conference this opening morning.



Coastal fog keeps Port of Tampa closed, may not burn off for hours



An onshore wind pushed a sea fog over Old Clearwater Bay on Monday afternoon. The coastal fog is expected to linger until Tuesday afternoon. (Photo: Mike Staige)

ST. PETERSBURG --
Although a dense fog advisory for the Tampa Bay area expires at 10 a.m., sea fog may linger along the coast and near Tampa Bay waters until early afternoon.

The advisory covers the coastal areas from Hernando County south through Manatee County, as well as Hillsborough County along Tampa Bay and Polk County. Originally set to expire at 8 a.m., it was extended two hours this morning.

"The fog is still thick, and it's going to be that way through the first half of today," Bay News 9 meteorologist Juli Marquez said. "Yesterday, we had fog early, then a break, and then we had an onshore wind that pushed it back to the beaches and over Tampa Bay. This morning, visibility is a quarter-mile or less near the coast."

The port of Tampa will remain closed to all ships - including cruise and cargo - for at least the next several hours, authorities said. Among the ships kept out at sea: the Royal Caribbean Brilliance of the Seas, which is carrying coach Urban Meyers and several players from Ohio State's national champion football team. The ship has been held west of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge since Monday.

Eight cargo ships are on hold near Egmont Key as well, officials said.

A front is pushing south, and that will change the weather later today. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler (around 70) than they were the last few days, and some showers will push in from the Gulf of Mexico, raising the chance of rain to 30 percent north of Tampa Bay, Marquez said.
"Eventually, the front will sink to the south, and it separates the warmer, more humid conditions from some cooler air to the north," Marquez said. "But there are still going to be some clouds in our area."

Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a chance of of isolated showers and a low of about 58. The high will again be around 70-degrees.

"And then our temperatures will start to go up Wednesday and Thursday as we watch a band of rain move in," Marquez said. "There could be some thunderstorms Wednesday night through early Thursday."

The rain chance Thursday is 70 percent, according to Bay News 9's 7-day forecast.
Quoting 206. nash36:

To add: If it's gonna be THIS cold and raw, I would prefer ice and snow. Nothing worse than a nasty cold rain.

At least we can all stay home and take pictures, since this doesn't happen here too often. Oh well.



Look who they let in here....howdy
Snow has turned into sleet here now..

New Hanover County has the worst drivers in NC..but when you add in snow/slick roads then its chaos..



9 a.m. update: Power companies monitoring weather

New Hanover County dispatchers say traffic accidents due to slick roads are still being reported, most involving injuries. A vehicle turnover wreck happened at 6 a.m. at the Thomas Rhodes Bridge on U.S. 421.

Meanwhile, Duke Energy Progress and Brunswick Electric Membership Corp. are reporting no power outages in the area, but both companies were closely watching the weather Tuesday morning.

Brunswick Electric spokeswoman Heather Holbrook said crews were looking out for the possibility of ice on tree limbs and power lines.

“Accumulated ice and the refreezing is the biggest hazard,” she said. “We've had folks monitoring this the last 24 hours.”
Quoting Naga5000:


The difference is heat related deaths tend to happen quickly as they are directly caused by increases in temperature (heat stroke e.g.), whereas cold deaths are more likely to occur over time (flu and other disease related death). Shelter is readily available to stave off exposure to extreme cold even in the most dire of socioeconomic circumstances in most of the modernized world. Overall cold kills more over a longer period of time, however, the rate of death is much higher during heat waves increasing with duration of the event.

So please, rely on facts and not feels, it's a bit more complicated than your initial statement, and deserves a bit more respect in talking about it.

Morning, Naga. There are are really only three potentially fatal health problems related to cold. We've all heard about people keeling over from a heart attack when shoveling snow but any overexertion in cold and snow, even trying to walk to the mailbox, can induce cardiovascular problems in people who have preexisting conditions.

The two we don't often hear about are acute asthma attacks caused by the very dry air and hypothermia. It appears from the usual battling studies that acute asthma attacks probably kill more people in cold weather than all other causes combined. When acute asthma doesn't kill directly, it can lead to bronchitis and then pneumonia, which can kill you. Hypothermia, which is just prolonged exposure to cold, does more than affect people who have inadequate shelter. People with weakened immune systems can get a whole range of health problems from from hypothermia, some of which can be fatal. We don't have a good handle on how many people die from hypothermia induced illness however.

One thing we do know for sure is that the flu death is totally unrelated to cold weather. Deaths from flu occur pretty evenly throughout the year, and the slight spike we see in winter is due to people being in closer contact due to the cold and coughing and sneezing all over each other. Same with the common cold, although it's possible that weakened immune systems might set the stage for other diseases to attack.

Hyperthermia and deaths related to heat are probably vastly under-reported so it's hard to tell how many people really die from hot weather except for those found suffering from obvious hyperthermia. Suffice to say that both extremes of temperature and weather can be killers, but I'd be hard pressed to come up figures saying one is worse than the other.
Quoting 240. coldisbad:


I'm sure far more people have died of cold related weather than heat waves. There is a reason first humans evolved in Africa and not Alaska.

Maybe...Heat waves kill humans off quite well. Deaths from heat during the past 50 years is in the tens of thousands.
Quoting 287. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Coastal fog keeps Port of Tampa closed, may not burn off for hours



An onshore wind pushed a sea fog over Old Clearwater Bay on Monday afternoon. The coastal fog is expected to linger until Tuesday afternoon. (Photo: Mike Staige)

ST. PETERSBURG --
Although a dense fog advisory for the Tampa Bay area expires at 10 a.m., sea fog may linger along the coast and near Tampa Bay waters until early afternoon.

The advisory covers the coastal areas from Hernando County south through Manatee County, as well as Hillsborough County along Tampa Bay and Polk County. Originally set to expire at 8 a.m., it was extended two hours this morning.

"The fog is still thick, and it's going to be that way through the first half of today," Bay News 9 meteorologist Juli Marquez said. "Yesterday, we had fog early, then a break, and then we had an onshore wind that pushed it back to the beaches and over Tampa Bay. This morning, visibility is a quarter-mile or less near the coast."

The port of Tampa will remain closed to all ships - including cruise and cargo - for at least the next several hours, authorities said. Among the ships kept out at sea: the Royal Caribbean Brilliance of the Seas, which is carrying coach Urban Meyers and several players from Ohio State's national champion football team. The ship has been held west of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge since Monday.

Eight cargo ships are on hold near Egmont Key as well, officials said.

A front is pushing south, and that will change the weather later today. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler (around 70) than they were the last few days, and some showers will push in from the Gulf of Mexico, raising the chance of rain to 30 percent north of Tampa Bay, Marquez said.
"Eventually, the front will sink to the south, and it separates the warmer, more humid conditions from some cooler air to the north," Marquez said. "But there are still going to be some clouds in our area."

Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a chance of of isolated showers and a low of about 58. The high will again be around 70-degrees.

"And then our temperatures will start to go up Wednesday and Thursday as we watch a band of rain move in," Marquez said. "There could be some thunderstorms Wednesday night through early Thursday."

The rain chance Thursday is 70 percent, according to Bay News 9's 7-day forecast.



It's going to be messy week as a whole between the fog, cloudy skies and at least some rain chances through the whole week until maybe Sunday and definitely a clear out Sunday night into Monday.

And while rain in Florida certainly isn't rare, most days that are very rainy days feature at least some sun in Central Florida. In fact the reason why Tampa Bay is ranked near the top as far as number of days with sun is because technically as long as at least some sun occurs it counts, even if most of the day was cloudy with rain. There are very few days a year where it's overcast the entire day without any sun.

Of course, all day overcast days are more common in spring and winter than in the summer in Central Florida, but still, the fact that will likely be mostly overcast through most of this week is going to be strange.
I live in West Monroe, La where we have had about an inch or so of sleet. We also had "Thunder Sleet" as the local weatherman stated on the news last night. Just sounded like regular old thunder to me; it just happened during an intense deluge of sleet. So far we are expecting another 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow which is not much for those in the north but is a lot for us in the south.
Quoting 275. intampa:

its very very foggy over here even a few miles inland.. how will that affect the storms coming in


If it's surface based activity, then updrafts will suck it in and the storms will collapse or at least weaken because fog means stable air for the most part, i.e. warm moist air moving over cooler air produces the fog bank. The fog is thick right now because a very warm and humid spring air mass has replaced the recently unusually cold air mass across Central Florida which made the water in the gulf colder than usual for late February, those ingredients have led to fog.

If updrafts pull in the stable air associated with the fog, they will certainly weaken. However, if the convection is elevated, than it will be fine because elevated storms mean no real connection to the surface, which how thunderstorms can occur in very cold air ahead of a warm front due to elevated storms riding over the warm front slope above cooler air.
Next week is the annual Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference:

2015 Tropical Cyclone Research Forum
69th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research: Setting our Future Course


Abstracts Booklet

One change I noted from the WG/HWSOR ACTION ITEM SUMMARY -DRAFT

Informational Item: Change Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) Categories

RECOMMENDATIONS: Redefine the TWO genesis bins as follows:
Low 0-30% (Yellow)
Medium 40-60% (Orange)
High 70-100% (Red)

"Over the past few seasons, NHC’s genesis forecast skill has improved and
become more uniform across the probability space, and there is no longer a
need to so sharply constrain the “low” category. In addition, feedback from
the EM community suggests that moving a system into the medium category
(currently 30%) creates a level of anxiety that is perhaps not warranted for
a system that still has a less than one-inthree chance of developing. Media
reaction to the relatively low thresholds for the medium and high categories
also tends to overly hype systems. NHC therefore feels it is time to redefine
the bins with a more even distribution that will not overly heighten concerns
of users. "


A few of the presentations have begun to show up here.
more snow for the northeast tonight!!


i see a few inches of snow here
Quoting 240. coldisbad:


I'm sure far more people have died of cold related weather than heat waves. There is a reason first humans evolved in Africa and not Alaska.



Far more people drown than spontaneously combust; therefore water is bad.

Far more people die in car accidents than in zombie attacks; therefore cars are bad.
Quoting 290. sar2401:

Morning, Naga. There are are really only three potentially fatal health problems related to cold. We've all heard about people keeling over from a heart attack when shoveling snow but any overexertion in cold and snow, even trying to walk to the mailbox, can induce cardiovascular problems in people who have preexisting conditions.

The two we don't often hear about are acute asthma attacks caused by the very dry air and hypothermia. It appears from the usual battling studies that acute asthma attacks probably kill more people in cold weather than all other causes combined. When acute asthma doesn't kill directly, it can lead to bronchitis and then pneumonia, which can kill you. Hypothermia, which is just prolonged exposure to cold, does more than affect people who have inadequate shelter. People with weakened immune systems can get a whole range of health problems from from hypothermia, some of which can be fatal. We don't have a good handle on how many people die from hypothermia induced illness however.

One thing we do know for sure is that the flu death is totally unrelated to cold weather. Deaths from flu occur pretty evenly throughout the year, and the slight spike we see in winter is due to people being in closer contact due to the cold and coughing and sneezing all over each other. Same with the common cold, although it's possible that weakened immune systems might set the stage for other diseases to attack.

Hyperthermia and deaths related to heat are probably vastly under-reported so it's hard to tell how many people really die from hot weather except for those found suffering from obvious hyperthermia. Suffice to say that both extremes of temperature and weather can be killers, but I'd be hard pressed to come up figures saying one is worse than the other.


Good morning, Sar. In med soc., we relate the flu as well, partially for the close contact social factors you mentioned, but also because new research is showing that some strains of the flu develop a special exterior coating that aids in cold weather transmissions, beyond that hypothermia, asthma, and cardiopulmonary failure are also included in cold weather deaths. Interestingly, some of the deaths have been shown to take place during the passage of a frontal system suggesting that pressure change plays a large factor and not just cold.

You're right, all of this is hard to quantify accurately, however, we know hot weather deaths tend to happen quickly and increase with duration of heat wave events. That makes response and prevention extremely difficult compared to cold events.

I agree that it would be difficult to say which one was worse, it's like asking is death by shooting or stabbing worse. I would say they are "different" and present unique challenges to health care workers depending. By counting time as a major metric, heat wave events seem to require more immediate reaction than cold.
-18 degrees fahrenheit this morning in Oakville Connecticut. This is not wind chill. This temperature shatters a record of -2 degrees Fahrenheit. This cold this late in the Winter is RIDICULOUS!!! Maybe a storms sneaks up the coast late this week or weekend. At this rate I will be shoveling until MAY!!!!
Quoting 257. win1gamegiantsplease:

All schools including UNCW closed though public schools were closed by last night. Not much at all on the ground by me but some more should be falling soon (currently dry here) before it changes to mix and rain.


I remember in 2009 (or 2010?) during my second year at UNCW we had about 1/4th of an inch fall sometime in January (I was living in Wrightsville and saw even less) and classes were canceled for two days. By mid-afternoon, all the snow had melted, it was 50 degrees, and I was walking around in shorts and a t-shirt. The next day was roughly 60 degrees and I had no class.

It's so funny to see the difference between how the south and north deal with snow.

I will be back down there in a few days so I hope the weather cooperates as I can no longer deal with another 4 weeks of below freezing temperatures.
Why Heat Waves Can Mean High Death Tolls


This image released on July 3, 2012, shows the average maximum temperature forecast from July 3-7. Black signifies a temperature of 90 degrees Fahrenheit, bright orange signifies 109 F.

Credit: NOAA National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
The next speaker at the Portlight sponsored Getting it Right Workshop in Va will begin in a few minutes.

LIVESTREAM


10:45am 12:00pm Sid Wolinsky, Director of Litigation Disability Rights Advocates

The Disability Rights Advocates (DRA) represented CIDNY in the lawsuit filed against the City of New York. Sid will give a background on the DRA and how the DRA has helped people with disabilities. Sid will discuss the lawsuit filed against the City of New York and other lawsuits that have been filled as a result of the success in New York.
Preliminary information on Tropical Cyclone Marcia By BOM Queensland Regional Office.



The tropical low that eventually became severe tropical cyclone Marcia was first identified and tracked on Sunday, February 15th. During the next several days it drifted eastward with little change in intensity.

On Wednesday, February 18th, the system turned southwest and began intensifying. It was officially designated as category 1 tropical cyclone Marcia on Wednesday evening and maintained its southwesterly track overnight into Thursday morning.

Between 8am and 6pm on Thursday, Marcia underwent a period of extremely rapid intensification, increasing by three categories to a category 4 cyclone in approximately 10 hours. On Thursday night it turned almost due south and intensified even further, reaching category 5 at 4am on Friday 20th February. Wind gusts at Middle Percy Island reached 208 km/h as the cyclone passed to the east.

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia made landfall as a category 5 cyclone at 8am at Shoalwater Bay, north of Yeppoon. The cyclone then weakened steadily as it moved southward over land during the day. The town of Yeppoon received significant damage, and wind gusts up to 156 km/h were recorded there as the cyclone passed to the west. A storm surge of 2 metres was recorded at Port Alma, but luckily this occurred near low tide.

The weakening cyclone passed over Rockhampton during the early afternoon of Friday 20th February, where wind gusts to 113 km/h were recorded and again significant damage occurred. Marcia then turned to the south-southeast and impacted the town of Biloela early that evening, where wind gusts to 85 km/h were recorded. Marcia was finally downgraded to a tropical low at 2am on Saturday, February 21st. Impacts were still felt further south with heavy rain and flooding occurring in the Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast districts, particularly around the Sunshine Coast and the Mary and Burnett Rivers. Dangerous surf and abnormally high tides were also experienced around exposed beaches in southeast Queensland.

The remains of Marcia eventually moved off the Sunshine Coast during the afternoon of Saturday February 21st.

All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.


Coastal Crossing Details
Crossing time: 8am AEST Friday 20th February, 2015
Crossing location: Shoalwater Bay
90km NNW of Yeppoon
Category when crossing the coast: 5



Extreme values during cyclone event (estimated)
*Note that these values may be changed on the receipt of later information
Maximum Category: 5
Maximum sustained wind speed: 205 km/h
Maximum wind gust: 295 km/h
Lowest central pressure: 930 hPa


From : Link
Quoting 291. hydrus:

Maybe...Heat waves kill humans off quite well. Deaths from heat during the past 50 years is in the tens of thousands.


Russia 2010 -
(Reuters) - A heat wave that fanned wildfires and blanketed Moscow with acrid smoke pushed up the number of deaths in Russia by nearly a fifth in July and August this year, according to a government report issued Monday.

Nearly 56,000 more people died nationwide this summer than in the same period last year, said a monthly Economic Development Ministry report on Russia's economy.


Link

Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003

Link

There's 126,000 in 12 years.
Picked up about an inch of snow here early this morning before it temporarily changed to sleet. Now we're dealing with moderate freezing rain. Despite constant activity and a weekend in the 60s, the roads have started to get slushy and I imagine they'll freeze later tonight as we continue in the mid- to upper-20s.

A nice look at the coastal fog affecting the west coast of Florida. It's moved offshore across locations of southern S.W. Florida.
Quoting 270. sar2401:

Pretty quiet on the ice storm front in Alabama today. The northern areas that were cold enough for snow or ice mostly didn't get any precipitation and places that did get precipitation, like me, weren't anywhere near cold enough for problems. I got 0.44 overnight and now there's widespread dense fog over much of south central and south Alabama. No advisories about that though as Birmingham busily works on refining the HWO wording about "residual icing" for areas where there weren't any icing problems reported to begin with. It's almost like they've forgotten there are other weather hazards than ice. :-)


Right now there's some drizzle that seems to be getting rid of the white stuff on the ground but as it is only 29-30 out currently it's freezing to surfaces. Roads are pretty decent at least. Most of the coast will be done with the winter weather this afternoon, I feel for the folks west of 95 who will have to go through more snow again. The Triad didn't get as much as anticipated from the last storm (maybe two to three inches) and knowing they got some today they'll probably match it at least through Wednesday-Thursday.
309. bwi
Quoting 298. MaineGuy:



Far more people die in car accidents than in zombie attacks; therefore cars are bad.


I'm actually OK with the logic on this one...
sar2401 @ 261

Agreed that the breakup of Pangaea was mostly done millions of years ago. However, as far as climate is concerned, it appears that the closure of the Isthmus of Panama around 3 million BP resulted in a considerable change in climate. After that time, the link between the Atlantic and the Pacific was severed and which led to an increase in salinity in the sub-tropical gyre of the North Atlantic. That enabled the Thermohaline Circulation, which has been implicated in the beginning of the present period of Ice Ages. Some researchers claim that the warm period preceding the closure is an analog for future climate as the Green House warming strengthens, however I think this is not likely to prove true. The last interglacial, the Eemian, appears to have ended with a warming spike, as the climate moved into another buildup of glacial ice. Most climate models show a decrease or a cessation in the THC, resulting in a cooling of Northern Europe. The climate is changing and the results may not be what most people expect...
Sunny with clear skies at my location about 10 miles inland.
The view from Fort Myers Beach looks like zero visibility.
Quoting 301. tc1120:



I remember in 2009 (or 2010?) during my second year at UNCW we had about 1/4th of an inch fall sometime in January (I was living in Wrightsville and saw even less) and classes were canceled for two days. By mid-afternoon, all the snow had melted, it was 50 degrees, and I was walking around in shorts and a t-shirt. The next day was roughly 60 degrees and I had no class.

It's so funny to see the difference between how the south and north deal with snow.

I will be back down there in a few days so I hope the weather cooperates as I can no longer deal with another 4 weeks of below freezing temperatures.


That was the best part about growing up down here, no school for days if there was anything significant. Now I rarely welcome it. It is humorous to a point how other places deal with things differently. Friday morning I was in Miami and it was in the mid-upper 50's and everyone on the streets were wearing jackets or hoodies while I had khaki shorts and a button up short sleeve tee on.
Quoting 307. Sfloridacat5:

A nice look at the coastal fog affecting the west coast of Florida. It's moved offshore across locations of southern S.W. Florida.



Big thunderstorms rolling in now. Lots of lightning coming just north of Tampa right now.

A good .30 to .50" of rain appears to be on the way for my area.


Quoting 302. Xandra:

Why Heat Waves Can Mean High Death Tolls


This image released on July 3, 2012, shows the average maximum temperature forecast from July 3-7. Black signifies a temperature of 90 degrees Fahrenheit, bright orange signifies 109 F.

Credit: NOAA National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
I am not sure about the rest of the world but in the United States cold kills twice as many as heat according to the CDC. This report was released last July

Winter cold kills more than twice as many Americans as does summer heat, according to a report released today by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), a division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Based on death certificate data from 2006-10, the report's authors found that "about 2,000 U.S. residents died each year from weather-related causes of death." The CDC report found that 63% of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold, hypothermia or both, while about 31% of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat, heat stroke, sun stroke or all.

Only about 6% were attributed to floods, severe storms, tornadoes, hurricanes or lightning.


A great look at the sea fog hanging just offshore Marco Island down in extreme S.W. Florida.
Very unexpected to see this much convection streaming in off the Gulf today as models showed virtually no rain today across C FL.

Scientific Forecaster Discussion



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
940 am EST Tuesday Feb 24 2015


For the morning update...
areas of dense fog persist across west central and southwest
Florida early this morning...however recent trends show visibility slowly
improving as the fog gradually lifts. Will allow the dense fog
advisory to expire at 10 am. A few pockets of dense fog may
persist until 11 am especially along the coast...but will not be
widespread enough to warrant extending the advisory.


A weak frontal boundary will gradually push south across the
northern and central forecast area today with a chance of
showers north of Tampa Bay. Boundary layer winds will shift to
the west and northwest behind the front late today and tonight.
This should push the area of sea fog over the coastal waters to
the south...with the sea fog possibly persisting off the southwest
Florida coast through tonight. The shift in winds to the west
could push the sea fog locally onshore across southwest Florida
tonight.


Will update zones later this morning to remove the dense fog
advisory.

Quoting 314. nymore:


I am not sure about the rest of the world but in the United States cold kills twice as many as heat according to the CDC. This report was released last July

Winter cold kills more than twice as many Americans as does summer heat, according to a report released today by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), a division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Based on death certificate data from 2006-10, the report's authors found that "about 2,000 U.S. residents died each year from weather-related causes of death." The CDC report found that 63% of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold, hypothermia or both, while about 31% of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat, heat stroke, sun stroke or all.

Only about 6% were attributed to floods, severe storms, tornadoes, hurricanes or lightning.





Yes, absolutely true for general winter and summer, which I mentioned previously. Extreme cases is another story. heat waves kill at much higher rates than cold extremes, and that rate increases with duration. Deaths from cold are generally not quick, instead they come from disease, asthma, cardiopulmonary failure, etc.

Another way to look at this is simply this big cold snap we just had which was record breaking in some parts of the U.S. estimates show about 20 people died. In the summer 2012 midwestern heatwave, 82 died. We can't directly compare these numbers though, socioeconomic status plays heavily, as well as geography. But when we try, the only thing we can say with any degree of certainty, heat waves kill faster and at a higher rate, but overall cold kills more.

Does that make sense?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very unexpected to see this much convection streaming in off the Gulf today as models showed virtually no rain today across C FL.



Looks like the front is sagging a little further south. It's only 50 degrees up in Tallahassee. It's 81 at my home station down here.

Cool (50) overcast and drizzly in Tallahassee at the moment; piece of cake compared to what folks North of Florida are going through at the moment.
Low pressure is expected to track from near the Gulf Coast to off the Southeast coast in response to an energetic upper-level system kicking out of the Southwest. With sufficiently cold air in place, the low will help pull moisture northward across the South, resulting in snow for some locations, and a cold rain for others.

Below is an overview of the forecast for this storm which starts Tuesday night and goes through Wednesday night. However, keep in mind that this forecast will likely change leading up to the event, so check back for updates.
Quoting Naga5000:


Good morning, Sar. In med soc., we relate the flu as well, partially for the close contact social factors you mentioned, but also because new research is showing that some strains of the flu develop a special exterior coating that aids in cold weather transmissions, beyond that hypothermia, asthma, and cardiopulmonary failure are also included in cold weather deaths. Interestingly, some of the deaths have been shown to take place during the passage of a frontal system suggesting that pressure change plays a large factor and not just cold.

You're right, all of this is hard to quantify accurately, however, we know hot weather deaths tend to happen quickly and increase with duration of heat wave events. That makes response and prevention extremely difficult compared to cold events.

I agree that it would be difficult to say which one was worse, it's like asking is death by shooting or stabbing worse. I would say they are "different" and present unique challenges to health care workers depending. By counting time as a major metric, heat wave events seem to require more immediate reaction than cold.
I absolutely believe pressure changes play a bigger role in making disease worse than the medical community knows about. I have both arthritis and Meniere's Disease, which affects my inner ear. I can tell when the pressure is falling quite accurately without a barometer. My neck feels like it will fly off my body and the pressure of fluid trapped in my inner ear makes me progressively more deaf in my good ear. Both of these improve once the front passes. My doctors pooh-pooh this but, being a former paramedic, I have enough medical background to be a pretty good reporter and being a weather geek, I know when a front goes through. :-)

The being shot or stabbed is a good analogy. Heat and cold both have deadly aspects. I suspect that the absolute numbers of deaths from cold are higher just because more parts of the developed world are affected by cold waves than heat waves. I've often wondered what the real death rate from heat is in places like tropical Africa, where the reporting is so bad we really don't know. The one aspect of heat waves that makes them deadly is when we get high humidity and very little nighttime cooling. Cold is just...well, cold, and most people adapt to it by previous exposure or shelter. It's pretty much steady state until it warms up or, for this year, until it's spring. Humans are actually very tolerant of hot daytime temperatures as long as there's enough nighttime cooling to allow the hypothalamus to reset the body's thermostat. High nighttime temperatures are the real killer in heat waves.

The only time I've seen people close to death was three horrible days at Phantom Ranch, in the bottom of the Grand Canyon. For reasons that now escape me, me and six members of the extended family decided to hike rim to rim in July. Since it was another of my famous disaster vacations, we were there for the highest temperatures ever reported, with an all time high of 118 and nighttime temperatures that never fell below 90. We were staying at the campground and were already totally exhausted by the hike. There were about 100 people in the campground and many of them were already sick. A 50 mph wind came up at about 3 in the morning, blowing over most of the tents and scattering supplies everywhere, including Bright Angel Creek. Now it was starting to get desperate. Many people had no shelter and not much food. There was no way to make the nine mile hike out in that heat, and they stopped the mule trains for two days because even the mules couldn't take it. There was one nurse at Phantom and she was overwhelmed. My late wife was an RN and I was a paramedic so we pitched in to help. Luckily, the dispensary had some IV fluids, so we were able to get those in the people most dehydrated. The dining hall had swamp coolers so we started piling up the sick people there. I had one guy who had other health problems that we couldn't get his temp below 102. We finally had to get a helicopter to get him out. I've already spent too long on this, but we got thunderstorms on the third day and then the temperature dropped to "only" 100. The sick people who still couldn't walk took the mules out and we managed to hike out on the fourth day. Just another fun vacation with the SAR travel bureau.
The Portlight Hampton Roads Getting It Right Workshop will continue at 1PM EDT after the Lunch Break.

LIVESTREAM

1:00pm 2:15pm Janet Schumacher, City of Charleston ADA Coordinator

Janet is an expert on the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). Janet will identify issues people with disabilities face during times of disaster. Janet will give tools and to insure full ADA compliance which will decrease the risk of litigation.


Snowfall Forecast
Our forecast map above shows a stripe of accumulating snow from northeast Texas and southern Arkansas to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, North Carolina and southern Virginia. As you can see, a large swath has the potential to see 1 to 3 inches of snow. Embedded in this swath we could see higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches, particularly from northeast Georgia to North Carolina.
The Atlanta metro area (particularly northern suburbs) will see accumulating snow, with the greatest amounts on the north side of the city. Travel should be avoided beginning Wednesday afternoon.
Accumulating snow possible is also likely in Greenville, South Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina, Raleigh, North Carolina and Asheville North Carolina. Travel is not recommended late Wednesday into early Thursday.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
And Grothar should be on shortly with a Blob alert for Florida:

Its 41 F in Pensacola and 55F in Jax so I think they will manage OK.

: )
Pick your poison.

Would you rather try to survive in negative 128 degrees in Antarctica or positive 134 degrees in Death Valley?

It would depend on what I was wearing. With shorts and flip flops you wouldn't last too long at negative 128 degrees.

I have a similar story to Sar. I hiked the Grand Canyon region during a heat advisory with daytime temperatures between 114-116 degrees. I ran out of water and luckily for me another hiker gave me a half a bottle of water, which was just enough to get me back.

With enough water, I could handle 114 degrees all day. But without water, you might only last a few hours.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Looks like the front is sagging a little further south. It's only 50 degrees up in Tallahassee. It's 81 at my home station down here.

We had some convection as the line passed through south Alabama last night so I thought there might be more convection around Tampa today. I don't think it's the front causing this but waves of low pressure moving along the stationary front. The front was far south of me when the convection started. The lightning detector isn't showing many recent strokes just offshore but there's more in the blob out in the Gulf. It will be interesting to see if they make it onshore.
you folks up ihn the snow hit area's..make sure your hosing down the underside of your cars...that rock salt the states are putting down on roadways really does a number on cars underbellies etc.
333. jpsb
Quoting 267. LAbonbon:


billion?


From Wiki

Pangaea or Pangea (/pænˈdʒiːə/[1]) was a supercontinent that existed during the late Paleozoic and early Mesozoic eras.[2] It formed approximately 300 million years ago and then began to break apart after about 100 million years.[3] Unlike the present Earth, much of the land mass was in the southern hemisphere. Pangaea was the first reconstructed supercontinent and it was surrounded by a super ocean, known as Panthalassa.


Also it is thought that a super continent forms and then breaks up about every 600 million years or so. Supercontinent cycle
334. jpsb
Quoting 267. LAbonbon:


billion?


Also from wiki

Anatomically modern humans evolved from archaic Homo sapiens in the Middle Paleolithic, about 200,000 years ago

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatomically_modern_ humans
Quoting 330. Sfloridacat5:

Pick your poison.

Would you rather try to survive in negative 128 degrees in Antarctica or positive 134 degrees in Death Valley?

It would depend on what I was wearing. With shorts and flip flops you wouldn't last too long at negative 128 degrees.

I have a similar story to Sar. I hiked the Grand Canyon region during a heat advisory with daytime temperatures between 114-116 degrees. I ran out of water and luckily for me another hiker gave me a half a bottle of water, which was just enough to get me back.

With enough water, I could handle 114 degrees all day. But without water, you might only last a few hours.




I couldn't handle 114F.... But we do have this thing called A/C... Same thing with -128F, we have heat.
336. vis0

Quoting 298. MaineGuy:



Far more people drown than spontaneously combust; therefore water is bad.

Far more people die in car accidents than in zombie attacks; therefore cars are bad.
ohgawd................. i'm gonna die of laffing?
Quoting 298. MaineGuy:



Far more people drown than spontaneously combust; therefore water is bad.

Far more people die in car accidents than in zombie attacks; therefore cars are bad.

So you have no argument and have to resort to false equivalency jokes? It's the truth, humans are FAR MORE adapted to surviving in hot climates than cold climates. It's always been this way. Compare the population of Africa with that of Siberia, Canada, or Alaska.

Heat is not a problem as long as you're near a body of water. Water can cool down nuclear reactors so sure as hell it can cool people.

I hope we have a zero snow, zero ice winter in NYC next year.
coldisbad - While I hope you are right about next year, I wouldn't make any bets or plans based on no snow next year.