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Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The GFS and Ukmet are major models, and as for the CMC, it does not have the best track record with formation. Gonna have to see some more models jump on board before I buy it.
1503. Drakoen
yea Nash, the CMC was right on target with Barry. I need about 3 days of consistency with more models jumping aboard to believe this. The models will have a better read on this Tuesdays. Usually i trust model runs 2-3 days out.
Makes sense, Nash.
Maybe JNH, but not real likely. The CMC does not show much development before the 78-102hr time frame.
1507. Drakoen
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 12:08 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

well drak, it should be labeled an invest by this weekend right?


I doubt that unless it takes advantage of its diurnal max phases.If it were to develop i would expect an invest by Wednesday or Thursday. The CMC does really do much with the wave untill that point. Maybe dveloping a closed low level circulation at best. Right now i will stick to the more reliable models and call for moisture in Florida next week, untill i see more model agreement.
lol jp

good to see ya
Lurk away, JP......
1510. Drakoen
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:10 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

what up people


well i got nothing better to say right now so I will lurk lol


LOL.nothing much going on just discussing the CMC run.
Let's be totally honest regarding the GFS and the UK. My personal experience tells me they are both great models for land-based forecasting. ie....CONUS. As is the Euro. Not to say they don't get the tropics correct occasionally.....as might the NAM.
I'll side with the Canadian as an early indicator of tropical happenings always until shown differently.
850mb vorticity on the CMC seems to say so jp, but I could be wrong, I really am not watching the wave itself.
1515. Drakoen
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:13 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

but looking at the loop how do we know that system by the bahamas in 5 days comes from this area in the central atlantic


Look at the 850mb vorticy. It shows that same area traveling across the CATL.
It's all good Anti, I have seen where that road leads :~)

The CMC is often over zealous.
Whats the conditions at Okinawa now ??
lol Drak, we are on it tonight ~)
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 11:56 PM GMT on July 12, 2007.
Groundman I went to your link you put up and kept hitting next and next and it shows it coming into the GOM close to Ala with 1001 reading. But i may be wrong.I am fairly new at looking at this stuff. I just usually read a lot.
Sheri


That's the graphical CMC which is the GEM. It does show a low coming close to AL but it's the same thing as the first link, it just takes it further in time but shows it in less detail.

I just learned there WAS a GEM this morning so don't feel bad. We are ALL learning, I think?
1520. Drakoen
Posted By: StormJunkie at 12:17 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

lol Drak, we are on it tonight ~)


Apparently so....lol
I'll look out my front door Monday afternoon and let you guys know if the CMC model was right...
CRS
Thanks CRS ☺
1523. Drakoen
Looking at the CMC loop it should start doing something at 100 hours or so North of the D.R. moving WNW.
Hey Drake we might have a situation in about 5 days. Doubt the west coast feels it but hey maybe we can get some rain at least.
LOL CRS. Have an umbrella around, just in case.............
Impressive wave coming off Africa above 10N for a change.

Atlantic
1527. Drakoen
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 12:22 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Hey Drake we might have a situation in about 5 days. Doubt the west coast feels it but hey maybe we can get some rain at least.


Maybe. way too far out to tell.
LOL your right it seems almost every Thursday nite we are having this same Conversation and then on Monday Poof its gone lol
Watch the SAL tear that wave apart.
1530. Drakoen
Ustropics unless it moves South it won't be of much interest. Due to the SAL.
Good evening...

No big deal but the ramsdis floater is now on the wave approaching the islands...

floater
Ustropics unless it moves South it won't be of much interest. Due to the SAL.

Oh I know. But the ITCZ establishing itself north of 10N can't be good with the MJO pulse expected in the next 2 weeks and neutral ENSO. It should sweep some of that SAL out and add moisture to the Atlantic.
1533. Drakoen
Something to watch over the next few days. Should move to the WNW within time.
I use this shot from CIMMS for the SAL and dry air. It shows the definite serious problem areas.

Scroll down to the mid-level WV shot.
Yeah, but every wave that comes off above 10 n , must also help to reduce the SAL. ??
Good points Us
1537. Drakoen

Current Observation from Naha, Okinawa

9am JST
Temp 26.9C
Precip: 29.5mm
Wind Direction SE
Wind speed: 25m/s
Humidity 91 percent
Barametric Pressure 941.5 hPa
Drak, can you explain that 200hpa map and what it should mean?
1540. Drakoen
Posted By: pottery2 at 12:30 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Yeah, but every wave that comes off above 10 n , must also help to reduce the SAL. ??


Yes somewhat.

Posted By: Anticyclone1 at 12:29 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

I use this shot from CIMMS for the SAL and dry air. It shows the definite serious problem areas.

Scroll down to the mid-level WV shot.



Good point. The wave track movie of the SAL shows the SAL lifting somewhat and weakening as it doesn so. Possibly related to the MJO.


Thanks for the rambis floater CV Looks to be slowly organizing possibly into a big system.
1542. Drakoen
the map basically shows where the MJO is. the MJO help to increase moisture and lower pressures. You notice that it is green over the CATL which means that the MJO is in that area which help to weaken SAL or clear out SAL.
1543. IKE
Posted By: leftovers at 7:36 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
Thanks for the rambis floater CV Looks to be slowly organizing possibly into a big system.


Can you or someone please link that for me? Thanx.
1544. Drakoen
Hurricane23 can you give me link for RAMSDIS site/images please?
1546. Drakoen
1547. Drakoen
Why does it require username and password to access?
Wave.....floating along in between.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 17N MOVING W
15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SHAPE PATTERN IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN
37W-42W. A NEW SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS TO
10W. AN OLDER SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO BEYOND THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 22N.
1549. Drakoen
anyone notice some kind of twist around 42W 10N?
1550. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:47 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
anyone notice some kind of twist around 42W 10N?


I did earlier with a visible loop.
hurricane you got mail
1552. Drakoen
May just be the clouds...
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:44 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Why does it require username and password to access?

The public has limited access to some of the floaters. MTSAT,METEOSAT-8 and METEOSAT-5 are not available to the public but the others ones are great.Did you check the imagery from ramsdis of the islands?
When is Dr. Masters going to update ?

Dr. Masters: July 11,8:22 EDT - There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week..
Drak:

Thank you for the answer re: the system off al/fl coast. Lost my internet connection right after asking the question...certainly was not being rude! Again, thanks.
1556. Drakoen
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:50 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 8:44 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Why does it require username and password to access?

The public has limited access to some of the floaters. MTSAT,METEOSAT-8 and METEOSAT-5 are not available to the public but the others ones are great.Did you check the imagery from ramsdis of the islands?


No which one is that? There are alot of links lol.
1557. Drakoen
Posted By: lowerbamagirl at 12:53 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Drak:

Thank you for the answer re: the system off al/fl coast. Lost my internet connection right after asking the question...certainly was not being rude! Again, thanks.


No problem.
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:53 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:50 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 8:44 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Why does it require username and password to access?

The public has limited access to some of the floaters. MTSAT,METEOSAT-8 and METEOSAT-5 are not available to the public but the others ones are great.Did you check the imagery from ramsdis of the islands?

No which one is that? There are alot of links lol.

Ramsdis images from the caribbean and the islands
Cat.Adj.

I am in Elberta...pretty much podunk, but about 4 miles from the gulf as the crow flies. Sorry so long to answer...internet problems. My hubby is a cat adj. What company are you with?

The area currently over Central America could get interesting if it moves over water in the NW Caribbean. There is a noticeable cyclonic motion in that area of convection if you look at the visible.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
213 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

DISCUSSION FROM JUL 12/0000 UTC. LATEST IR/200 HPA POTENTIAL
VELOCITY ANOMALIES ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DOMAIN. THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 72 HRS AND
BEYOND.
1564. Drakoen
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 1:01 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

SO WHO THINKS THAT THE CMC COMPUTER MODEL IS RIGHT AND THINMKS THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE NEXT WEEK?!!!


Don't use caps. I need more model agreement before i buy into that. Especially that far out.
I'll have a rum, on that.
Maybe it's moving West??
Maybe it's moving West??

If it were to move west, there may not be anything left of a wave this weak because of the mountainous terrain it would have to go over. Thus, I think their synopsis of favorable conditions in the East Pacific is either incorrect, or they meant Atlantic.

And Josh, Drak is right; don't go buy into a hurricane by Florida just yet. We need model cosensus, and we need to see what this wave will do by tommorow and days out before we make assumptions.
When is Dr. Masters going to update ?

Dr. Masters: July 11,8:22 EDT - There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week..
what is SAL
1570. Drakoen
Posted By: tampahurricane at 1:16 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

what is SAL


Saharan Air Layer Dust. It supresses convection.
Just wanted to share this fantastic echo. Notice the rotation, the gust front and the beginning of tornadaic development in near Wakefield.

Radar
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"

Jeff Masters
so when the map has red on it it is bad for development.
1574. Drakoen
Thanks Jeff. Oh and did you see the CMC forecast?
Dr, Masters has updated his blog
1576. Drakoen
Posted By: tampahurricane at 1:19 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

so when the map has red on it it is bad for development.


Yes
thanks jeff
do you expect it to go down
1579. Drakoen
The SAL is already starting to go down you can look at the SAL loops as well as the water vapor loops.
can you post thankyou.
which way is the area of disturbed weather over central america moving, does anyone know?
1582. Drakoen
Posted By: hurricane91 at 1:27 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

which way is the area of disturbed weather over central america moving, does anyone know?


to the west.
1583. Drakoen
SAL/Dry air Loops

Link
1584. amd
that's a great radar view of okinawa. It looks like the eye of Man-Yi may be in the process of the ERC, as the eye size has grown slightly. Also, on the last couple of frames, it looks like a wobble of the eye to the N or just east of north.

Okinawa has to be getting nailed with cat 4 winds at least.

Also, it looks like the eye went directly over a very small island south of Okinawa. I wonder if there was a pressure reading possible from that small island.
thank you.
That is an amazing Okinawa Radar Dr. Masters has got.
Floyd did something like that. Staying of shore. I don't think it did much wind of Flooding damage.

(wikipedia)



I know this was put up a long time ago, but I couldn't ignore it since I was under Floyd while he was still well over 100 mph crossing over Newport News, VA. He did a lot of flood damage. South East VA received upwards of 16 inches in 24 hours from him. I helped dig out Franklin (about 1/2 hours drive to the west of where I lived)- the flood waters damaged second stories right by the river. Even in Newport News, there were quite a few apartments where folks were evacuated by boat, and my normal parking spot in front of the house I was renting was under 4 feet of water. Thankfully the house had been built up with a crawl space beneath it, so while the water lapped at the top step it didn't come in.
Shot...

radar
ok thats what I thought
Hi everybody,
I've been lurking for a few months and decided to go ahead and join the blog. Thank you all for the in depth information about tropical cyclones, I've been tracking them since I was 10 but have learned so much in the last couple months just reading the blog.
Lots of energy in that wave, Story. You think it can survive the SAL ??
Hello, Ori. Good to see new names all the time. Makes me wonder how many people are lurking out there at a given time.
Hello, all you lurkers !
Hi Dr. Masters ! Thanks for the update ! I hope our troops are prepared & safe over there !
What are the thoughts of the wave in the central atlantic
Dont be sorry, people on here make predictions all the time dont they ??

And mostly, ther'e incorrect.........
There is something I couldn't figure out though about Man-Yi. I noticed that southern Okinawa(including Naha) has been experiencing the eyewall of this catagory 5 typhoon, yet the highest sustained winds in Naha have been 66 mph. I've noticed this in other storms as well. Why aren't the winds ALOT higher than they are? It's like they have the anemometer behind a wall or something.
Miamiweather, there are some models showing that wave at 38 W ending up as a TS or more, in 5 days, in Florida or the Bahamas.

Not enough consensus yet though.
Weather anomalies:

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY WAS 91
DEGREES. THIS WAS THE TENTH STRAIGHT DAY ON WHICH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES IN KEY WEST...THE FIRST
TIME SUCH A STRETCH HAS BEEN RECORDED SINCE JULY 2-11 1998. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING WAS 80 DEGREES...ENDING A STREAK OF FIVE
STRAIGHT DAYS ON WHICH THE TEMPERATURE FAILED TO FALL BELOW 84
DEGREES. THIS WAS THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE JULY 18-23 1967.
10:50am JST
10 am advisory

near Naha City (26.2N 127.5E)
95 kts (sustained winds 10 min average)
135 kts (gusts)
930 hPa

11am presumption location
30 km northwest of Naha
1602. Blink
Well, from the cam feeds, seems to me that they are getting hammered presently.
i hope not
the wave at 38W seems to have a long way to go for this time of year. The shear out in front of the wave will make development difficult...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-1.html


135 KNOTS !!!!
Probably the shear, SAL and dry conditions are moving along at the basic same forward speed as the wave in the CATL. Doesn't look like a hinderance if that is the case.
And this wave is picking up forward speed....around 20 knots forward motion. Should be impacting the islands with moisture this weekend.
Yes that shear is too much for that wave to deal with.. It may run out of steam by Saturday.
Miami NWS:

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIB...BUT
AXIS COULD EXTEND NORTH NEAR THE AREA...AND MOISTURE COULD
INCREASE BEHIND THIS WAVE BY MID WEEK.
Could the winds in Naha be much higher than what's being officially reported?
Well thanks, Anti. I was hoping for some sunshine actually. Has been raining here all week already.........
The Live Feed from Okinawa, Japan is in the upper left hand corner. They are getting hammered ! Link
Hammered with a Capital H!!!
good evening all

Ramsdis is now taking an interest in the ATL wave

Posted By: randommichael at 2:31 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

How so?


What do you mean ?
Evening, Kman.
Hi Pottery

Looks like rain coming your way from the East
1622. Patrap
Typhoon a cranking . Those are some sweet views
1623. msphar
Without rotation its just another high amplitude summer wave.
Posted By: msphar at 2:37 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Without rotation its just another high amplitude summer wave.


Agreed. Maybe there is nothing else out there for them to use their close up floater on !
Indeed, Kman. Its been raining here all week too. My cistern are all overflowing noisily !
Looks like they are getting the easten edge of the eye, probably the worst.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=217
Send some here Pottery. Its been bone dry for 3 weeks now. This is supposed to be our rainy season but until the waves start coming through here on a regular basis we are back to drought conditions. We have had the odd shower but not the typical summer downpours one would expect
1628. msphar
More rain coming your way, Pottery in a couple of days.

With the "high amplitude" I hope my boat gets washed.
Yeah kman, and the good news is, that all that hotsun has heated up the water around you too. heheh
Good news for swimming, bad news if anything "spinning" comes this way lol
Is your boat in T&T ?
1632. A4Guy
The tropical Atl is eerily quiet. hardly any t-storms even.
1633. msphar
East end of Puerto Rico near
Fajardo, Roosvelt Roads actually.
The tropical Atl is eerily quiet. hardly any t-storms even.


Typical for July but all this can change in a hurry in 3 weeks or so
calm before the storm? yet to be seen. in the meantime, the water feels great!
OK msphar.
I asked, because we get a big population of boats here in the season, hiding out !
AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N56W.

This ULL is floating along towards the West along with most everything else out there including our wave. This TUTT is supposed to break down and open. Before it does as can be seen on this WV shot it is extending the wave axis North.
That's where we are right now.
Link
yea Pottery. I have friends who take their boat down your way this time of year otherwise their insurance cover is voided
1639. msphar
Yes, many friends went down there last year! I ran out of time and didn't want to rush the trip. We'll be down that way in a year or so. For now PR is just fine. getting familiar with the Virgins while up there. Too many islands to visit.
1640. msphar
Insurance, inside the box - big problem.
Kman, tell them to give me a call.

Msphar . Those Virgins, what can I say ??
When Ivan hit us in 2004 I had just sold my boat and was about to buy another. I went to look for the dock I had leased at the yacht club and it was a half mile inland !.
In life, timing is everything
1643. msphar
I hear the Grenadines are beautiful too.
Pottery

They had the boat in Antigua recently and are back in the UK for now but will keep you in mind when I touch base with them
the gauge is broken, it says the pressure is a 1048 mb
Exellent timing !
1647. msphar
Kman, timing is everything. I recall Ivan, I was panicking in Coconut Grove wondering if it was coming my way.
Issued 11:50am JST
Japan Meteorological Agency

1100am advisory
near Naha city (26.4N 127.6E)
95 knots (sustained winds using 10 min average)
135 knots (gusts)
930 hPa

12pm presumption location
40 km west of Nago
Not sure if this link for Okinawa webcams been posted again here recently:
Link
CRS
Looks like the big ATL high wants to stay in place. Not a good sign as it has been this way for quite some time now

1651. TayTay
That wave never stood a chance. I'm still shocked that Man-Yi didn't hit Cat. 5.
msphar

Everyone gets their turn to panic. The important thing is to learn something from it
11am JST
Nago in Okiwana

Temperature 27.0C
Precipitation 15.0mm
wind direction SE
wind speed 27 m/s (55 knots)
Humidity 89 percent
Pressure 953.2 hPa
The Grenadines are indeed fabulous. Spent 2 weeks drifting through there in the 80's. My daughter dropped a note in a bottle over the side near Mayreau ( she was 10 then ). 3 months later came this package from the Cayman Isles, with brochures, tee shirt etc. Turns out this lady was on the beach with her young daughter,who says " Look, I found a note in a bottle " Amazing.

My daughter could not have had a better day...........
TayTay

Man-Yi always seemed to have a somewhat ragged look. It never managed to develop the symmetry of the truly classical hurricnaes
11am JST
Naha in Okiwana

Temperature 27.0C
Precipitation 3.5mm
wind direction SSW
wind speed 31 m/s (60 knots)
Humidity 90 percent
Pressure 947 hPa
Pottery

I guess the trade winds brought that bottle all the way across the Caribbean
Well thats it for tonight. I am saving my strength for the long evenings when the season kicks into gear ( LOL ).

Good night all

Will chat tomorrow
1659. amd
the main reason, IMHO, that Man-Yi didn't quite reach cat 5 was because of some dry air near the nw edge of the circulation.

Only for a short while did Man-Yi get close to that classical circular hurricane look.

If the dry air on the nw side was a bit less, Man-Yi could have come close to Typhoon Tip strength.
Nago is northeast of Naha still in the Okinawa Prefecture
Yeah, and it would have had barnacles on it by then too, I guess. I must ask daughter if she remembers the name.......
Later, Kman.
amd

Man-Yi always had a N to S "stretched" look, as if it was being sheared from the W. I guess that was the dry air influence. Still, a pretty dangerous system, regardless of how it looks

C U all tomorrow
oops wrong blog
The Live Feed from Okinawa,Japan is in the upper left hand corner Link
Only for a short while did Man-Yi get close to that classical circular hurricane look.


Here is a good example of that:




However, CIMSS did have Man-Yi get down to 899 mb with 140 kt winds:

1667. TayTay
I know, I think it was due to its massive size. Man-Yi was too big and didn't really organise as fast.
Evenin' all -

I understand that we have a couple of models actually agreeing on development of a closed circulation in the Carribean or GOM?
computer model ts or maybe cat 1 hurricane in the eastern bahamas and bring it into to south FL
big wave coming off above 10 is dry air going to kill it too
it might not, dry air is suppose to lift up to the north and bring in moisture
right now its the atl the models are saying a ts or ca1 hur. in the bahmmas and so fla . thats the one to keep a eye on stay tuned . right here to get all the info as this comes into play
if you want too see here is the link for the model that says this Link
Wow - that's awfully far out in the future for any degree of confidence - any of the other models in agreement with CMC??
not as of right now, its just a wait ans see game
See what shows....or doesn't on the 00Z and 12Z runs.
in still confuse is it the wave in the atl. thats suppose to become the ts or is a new wave that develops in the bahammas this week
thanks anti but it really dosent look that healthy now i guess we have to wait .
Is it me or is the dry air that choked 96L, about gone.
CMC Model
besides, time is about to run out on this thins to do anything... isnt the shear climbing?
thats what i was saying josh it looks like its going to form by the bahamas like katrina did the make its way to so fla . i think it hasnt formed yet thanks for pointing that out but everyone thinks it the wave in atl. now thats why i was confused
It might hit somewhere else in FL too
The Canadian is only one model working on developing a piece of this wave. Take a frame by frame of the model on 850 Vort....you'll see where it originates.
how do you like the cimss new look?? e mail me or drop a commet by my blog be come i am saying good night now and wont see your commet

Link
thanks anti did it frame by frame it not the one the atl its stats forming east south of the bahammas right

by the way with the pressure reading tonight from taz the exsisting atl wave could be invest 97l in 24 to 48 hours another one to watch .
stormybil: Are you sure the mid-Atlantic tropical wave east of the islands is worth watching? Looks quite pitiful to me. I'm not going to wishcast though.

Well thats it for tonight. I am saving my strength for the long evenings when the season kicks into gear ( LOL ).

I hope that LOL wasn't you trying to say how slow this season has "supposedly" been. -_-
Here is a model run of the cmc that shows were it first appears. Just found the link so I hope you find it worthy
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07071212/123.html

Oh and if someone looks at this link, please let me know what the two graphs are in the beginning. Still hoping to learn
thanks jean guess i did get it right it forms south of the bahamas and track to fla thanks again what does the big z mean
Here is a model run of the cmc that shows were it first appears. Just found the link so I hope you find it worthy
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07071212/123.html

Oh and if someone looks at this link, please let me know what the two graphs are in the beginning. Still hoping to learn


The two graphs in the beginning predict what type of core the system would be. In this case, we are looking for a symmetric warm core system. The second model predicts the intensity basically, with a deep warm core system being the healthiest.

Try the first link
us troics on what date is it suppose to form im lost there thanks is it 108 hours
1698. 0741
stormybil we wont see 97l for some time do donot come saying their going to be 97l in next 24to 48 hour because one their too much shear two if you look at atlantic wv loop you see their upper low coming down alot dryair and dust please donot come here getting people worry go enjoy weekend no wishcasting please :)
ustropics on what date is it suppose to form im lost there thanks

The CMC begins to recognize it as it reaches the islands (around 78 hours). However this is the ONLY model thus far that projects this. More model consistency needs to be seen before this becomes a real area of interest. Also we need to see a consistent pattern of this system in future CMC runs as well. If you compare the 850 Vort 12Z run to the most recent one you'll notice a significant decrease in projected strength.
thanks us tropics

the word was could not would 0741
heres the lates pressure on the atl wave as per taz blog

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 92.7 F
good morning story whats your view hehe
Where's this wave?
donot come here getting people worry go enjoy weekend no wishcasting please :)

I agree about the wishcasting part.

What's going to be everyone's excuse when August and September comes around, though? Shear will probably be 5-10 knots then, and the dry air will be gone by then, since dry air is CLEARLY going away right now as we speak. Oh wait, I forgot if shear isn't below 5 knots nothing will develop, and if there is one small patch of dry air, it won't develop either. I'd call that wishcasting.

I'm not directing this towards you who I copy/pasted, but to everyone in general. That always happens, and I'm betting my money on it it will during the peak months. That's pure wishcasting.

I apologize sincerely if this upsets anyone. But it gets annoying that people sometimes do this, when conditions are clearly there. I'm not trying to upset anyone, though. Sorry if I have.
So what's going on with this wave this early morning? is it looking worse, better, or the same? And is the CMC still forecasting something tropical coming through southern Fl?
Oklahoma getting pounded again
Good morning folks. CV wave seems to be pulsing alittle. The next one seems even stronger.
1708. bobw999
And is the CMC still forecasting something tropical coming through southern Fl?

Nope.
Looks like serious business is going to start next week or two weeks from now.
Pattern looks ugly for Florida and GOM.
Gone be busy times end of july,august.
A question: If Man-Yi is now at 150 mph, which is 5 mph above the 145 mph it weakened to earlier, then why does it not really have a visible eye? I can see by the pic the Doc posted that the eye is easily less discernable, yet the tropical page of wunderground says 150 mph? Is this because of cooler water is running into, and thus it is becoming extratropical, or at least losing its tropical structure?
apocalyps, everytime I say that (not trying to offend anyone here, so please, PLEASE don't get upset I'm just trying to comment that's all) to anyone, they find some way to deny development. Granted, conditions aren't typically favorable in June and July, they are becoming much more favorable, and quite rapidly. I've noticed this. It's only going to get worse.
And no, I definitely don't want a major hurricane. But I would like for there to be (again, no offense, just my two cents, I seriously mean nothing by this) no wishcasting for a tropical cyclone not form, or for a tropical cyclone TO form. We can wishcast with weather, but it doesn't really work...
1713. Alexpvf
Useful links for tracking Man-Yi approaching:
Kagoshima, southern Japan
Link
Miyazaki, southern Japan
Link
Tanegashima, southern Japan
Link
Thanks Alex for the links. But can you or anyone else please try and answer my question about Man-Yi?
Even if we dont want a major hurricane it will not help.
Everything is setting up for hurricane landfalls.
It would surprise me if we not gone have 3 hurricane landfalls at least.
Conditions coming more favorable two weeks from now.
Ones there comes bigger waves from Africa on a more northern track,beware.
And is the CMC still forecasting something tropical coming through southern Fl?


as of today yes and somthing new is brewing at 13- 14 w is this the wave the cmc was thinking our local news is also metioning it this am . nothing serouis yet. but they are calling it a stong tropical wave at this time

Link

you can check it out here
what location is the wave at? I want to mark it on my tracking map also how is the wave looking this morning? has it loss or gained convection and has it gotten any better organized?
Can I also get a link to the CMC so I can take a look for myself please? anyone who can give me a link I appreciate it and thanks.
here you go amazing let us know what you think

Link
1721. bobw999
stormybil- That is not the current run. This is Link
1722. bobw999
It is no longer forecasting the system.
my bad thanks sorry
Morning all ☺

Yep, bob, looks like it may be forecasting a weak TD at best now.

awx, you can most of the model pages from here.
Thanks alot StormyBil it looks like it still has a T.C. headed toward FL to me so I guess that makes a consistency so should we be on the alert now?
1726. bobw999
so should we be on the alert now?

Even if it is forecasting the system, there is nothing official yet. And remember, always listen to your local authorities.
Nobody told me yet what's the coordinates of the wave in the Atl and how is it looking this morning?
BRAND NEW AND CURRENT TO JULY 12, 2007

THE GOES EAST INFRARED HURRICANE SECTOR IMAGERY ANIMATION



I truly hope you enjoy this splendid animation.
awx, it is forecasting a weak, weak system at the 144hr time frame, and it is the only model doing so right now. No need to worry, or be on alert just yet. If something changes in the model guidance or the appearance of the wave over the next couple of days then it could be a little more concerning, but for now it is really a bunch of nothing.

As for the location of the wave, I have not been watching it, but read the Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC, and browse through those imagery links on that link I posted a minute ago. That will help you determine the location.
I must caution though those of you who say well its only one model or its just the CMC that doesn't mean its right or wrong , but who is to say it can't go either way? It might see something other models don't. Models change from run to run guys the next run the CMC could show nothing or a Cat 3 hurricane. The fact that one model sugguests something is enough at least for me to keep any eye on the area since its close to home.
1731. IKE
I see a spin...on that wave near 10.2N, near 45W...moving W-NW.

Hm. Man-yi looks less manly today, and much weaker in its northwest quarter. But Okinawa has already had a hugely rainy season. Katrina was downgraded to a 3 and still did a lot of damage. And check this out from Reuters:
Some 240 flights to and from Okinawa were cancelled, NHK public television said.

The storm, classified as a category 4 typhoon by British-based Web site Tropical Storm Risk (www.tropicalstormrisk.com), was expected to increase the activity of the annual rainy season front and pound much of Japan with heavy rain over an extended holiday weekend.

Kyushu, where one man died earlier this week when he was swept away by a flooded river, braced for more rain and flooding, and nearly 2,000 people were advised to evacuate.

"We had really heavy rain and thunderstorms at dawn," one woman told NHK at an evacuation centre in the Kyushu city of Saito, a rural area where swollen rivers flowed close to the top of their banks.

"I want to go home. I'm really worried about our greenhouses."
1733. IKE
but for now it is really a bunch of nothing.

LOL! I agree!!! But I did say it would be an invest at some point. The wave isn't helping my cred.

Day 43 of the 183 day hurricane season in the Atlantic.
good morning

well there is nothing to shout about this morning in the Gmex, CARIB or the ALT. the only interest are the wave in CALT which looks lethargic and the CMC's threat of a hurricane hitting south Florida. apart from this it is tranquillity in the tropics.
1735. Patrap
Man-yi impacts Okinawa

1736. nash28
Guys, the 00z run from the CMC dropped the hurricane it had in 12z.
whats the latest out of Okinawa on Man-Yi. and what the wind speed up to on the storm?
amazin, like it was said earlier. The time for south florida should be august/september. Do not really look for anything until the shear drops out and the water temps reach max in the carib/Atl.
1739. Drakoen
it didn't exactly drop the system. One thing i have noticed is that it spins something up on the 12z runs. Yesterdays 0z run did that same thing as the current 0z run.
Right now a strong wave is shown on the CMC possibly a TD.
1740. Drakoen
1741. Drakoen
1742. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:31 AM CDT on July 13, 2007.
it didn't exactly drop the system. One thing i have noticed is that it spins something up on the 12z runs. Yesterdays 0z run did that same thing as the current 0z run.
Right now a strong wave is shown on the CMC possibly a TD.


I've seen models do that. They have a storm...drop it...add it back...drop it again....

Makes it hard to believe the model.
1743. Drakoen
might be developing a llc south of the heavy convection.
>
1744. IKE
The convection in that wave has split in two. The bottom...more westerly portion, appears headed for South America. The top and further east portion has a spin and is heading west..to west-NW.
1745. Drakoen
Posted By: IKE at 12:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

The convection in that wave has split in two. The bottom...more westerly portion, appears headed for South America. The top and further east portion has a spin and is heading west..to west-NW.


some of the moisture between 55w-50W is associated with the ITCZ. the convection to the north is not.
1746. Drakoen
you can see what i am talking about if you look at the RGB loop and the Quicksat.

1747. Drakoen

1748. Drakoen
blog is empty today..
1749. Patrap
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week.
1750. Patrap
Have a good weekend folks.
Zooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom
BRAND NEW & CURRENT TO JULY 12, 2007

THE GOES EAST INFRARED HURRICANE SECTOR IMAGERY TIME LAPSE ANIMATION!


Hey Cyclone... do you have an animation like that for the whole '05 season???
Im still looking for that, just so far have found individual anims.
thanks....
Sorry, WhirlWind...

My service for humanity creating these animations began on 6/1/2007.

So the next time there's a big outbreak like '05...I'll have 'em...but then...so will you too. I'm going to do this work every year from now on. It's hard...but it's fun.
1754. Drakoen
If Dr. Masters can get me the entire bank of images from the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector FROM JUNE 1, 2005 - NOVEMBER 1, 2005 , I'll be more than happy to make some very very cool animations for everyone!!!!

ARE YOU THERE, DOCTOR?

ozman_rebel@yahoo.com
1756. Patrap
Heres the 2005 H season .Just go to YouTube and use the searcxh engine.There a dime a dozen



1757. Patrap
Anyone can get them.Its public domain material
1758. Patrap
1759. Patrap
CLoser view of 05 from the previous

Link
The quality of that video is not very good.

I know that the images are public domain...but 2005 images are no longer available. At least...I can't get to them.

If I could get them, I'd create some animations that would be of a quality higher in price than a dime a dozen...
1761. Patrap
Try NOAA contact page for the info,They usually respond
nice...thx

cyclone.. here is a directory of inimations of canes from 95 to present. maybe you can play with these?

Link
Good morning Patrap, how did our boys make it through last night and has the brunt of the storm passes Oki? Can you update me on anything worth watching this morning? Semper Fi
Good Morning All (or should I day the few?)...I'll be lurking today due to busy work issues but all is clear in the Atlantic (although the Northern component of the wave is starting to pulse and looks interesting if it can hold over the next 3-4 days). Seems to me, as historically proven, that August & September will be the months to watch in the Atlantic, so, I plan to "chill" a little bit with the family over the next few weeks.....Enjoy some quiet Summer time folks!
The Katrina / Rita animation was better, but still not up to my standards.

You'll notice that images spaced 1 hour apart were used.

I like using 2 images per hour.

Unfortunately, I'll have to go to 1 image per hour when I create my full season animation in November of this year because of the space limitations on YouTube.

However, I will create full image count June - August and September - November animations as well as any special ones.
1766. Patrap
Im trying to get some NIPPON news this am ..But the Island has power Im seeing on the southern Webcams..
1767. Patrap
One early report from a News Source

Link
we now have a low with are wave i can see the spin vary well on this loop

Link
1769. Drakoen
1770. Jedkins
Okinowa has had over 25 inches of rain from Man-yi since yesterday, thats pretty impressive.
1771. Drakoen
Yea Taz. I saw that too. i had to look at the loops alot to confirm it though. Looks to be at the wave axis, makes sense.
Hey WhirlWind!

I think I just got the images. Had to place an ftp order with a university. The images I requested are the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector for June 1, 2005 - November 1, 2005...

They estimate the size of the order is 907MB...which is about right!

Oooo Oooo! :)
1773. Drakoen
heres the Quicksat from this morning. Look around 10N 45W.
1774. Jedkins
10.57 inches of rain fell in an hour reported at Okinowa!


Link
1775. Drakoen
the max wind gust was 105 mph easily knock out power, trees, etc.
1776. CJ5
The wave at 45/13 may be one to watch. It is moving WNW and this track would seem to jive with the CMC model. Current shear in the path increases to 20,30 and 40 and there is still plenty of dry air ahead of it. I do not see any spin with it but my eyes are slow to pick up on that lol
1777. Jedkins
oh ya 105 mph can do some significant at damage persistent levels, esspecially when added to hours and hours of hurricane force winds like theyve had.
1778. Drakoen
Posted By: CJ5 at 2:05 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

The wave at 45/13 may be one to watch. It is moving WNW and this track would seem to jive with the CMC model. Current shear in the path increases to 20,30 and 40 and there is still plenty of dry air ahead of it. I do not see any spin with it but my eyes are slow to pick up on that lol


If you look at the computer model forecast all the model have that high shear area moving to the north and disspating somewhat as it does so.
If you look at the SAL movie you can see the SAL weakening.
It is looking very interesting now in the tropics as an arriving MJO and a developing La Nina are arriving at the perfect time to potentially have a breakout of tropical activity right in the heart of hurricane season. The CMC model from yesterday caught my eye yet alone my attention as it appears as if a tropical system was forecasted to target So. Fla. in 144 hours and that these tropical waves are continually coming off Africa at a higher frequency and appear to be stronger every time. I have a "gut feeling" as Michael Chertoff would say, that we are now in the calm before the storm as the ingredients are now just setting into place. Buckle your seatbelts boys. We are in for a bumpy ride.
1780. Drakoen
Guess we will have to wait for the 12z runs.
cycloneOz - I know that there are many image loops to choose from (a dime a dozen?), but I do want to commend you on the quality of your work. They were smooth and well done and very interesting to watch. A bit of an art form in itself.

Keep it up!
1782. CJ5
If you look at the computer model forecast all the model have that high shear area moving to the north and disspating somewhat as it does so.
If you look at the SAL movie you can see the SAL weakening.


Thanks, Drak. I have noticed the SAL weaking. It certainly has decreased alot since 96L. I have a hard time reading the shear maps but you seem to have a very good handle on that aspect.

If the CMC models stays, does the math/distance work out to identify this as the wave they may be projecting?
1783. IKE
If the CMC models stays, does the math/distance work out to identify this as the wave they may be projecting?

Yes.
1784. Drakoen
new blog guys..
1785. CJ5
I did not see any of the other models developing this wave but, do you guys see anything significant about the "blob" developing at 80/10 around 80hrs from the mm5FSU model?
1786. Drakoen
CJ5 theres a new blog and the MM5FSU model run if you are using it from the link i posted dates back to last year. old run.
1788. CJ5
Thanks again, Drak. I didn't even check the date. I assumed it was current and you know what happens when you assume.....