WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Researching the Wet, Wild World of Atmospheric Rivers

By: Bob Henson 2:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2016

When a molecule of water vapor heads toward the poles, it may well be hitching a ride on an atmospheric river (AR). A growing amount of research is zeroing in on these narrow but powerful channels of airborne moisture, which are far more widespread and influential than scientists once thought. Garden-variety ARs tend to have a beneficial influence overall, but the biggest and baddest ARs can produce colossal rainfall and snowfall and major destruction. And Godzilla notwithstanding, major AR events are actually no more likely to strike California during El Niño than during La Niña.

I’m getting up to speed on ARs this week at the 2016 International Atmospheric Rivers Conference. Close to 100 forecasters and researchers are gathered here at a global epicenter of AR science: the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. The conference kicked off with an opening talk by Martin (Marty) Ralph, a long-time NOAA scientist who joined Scripps in 2013. Ralph is one of the leaders of the burgeoning science of ARs and the founder of the Scripps-based Center for Weather Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E). A growing amount of research at CW3E and elsewhere is aimed at producing useful AR guidance for weather forecasters and water resource managers. Many of the scientists at this meeting are also working on a book on ARs to be published in 2017.


Figure 1. This graphic shows an atmospheric river interacting with U.S. West Coast mountains and a midlatitude cyclone over the northeast Pacific on 5 February 2015. Labeled are the approximate locations of tropical moisture entering the atmospheric river and a warm conveyor belt (WCB) transporting warm, moist air just ahead of a cold front. Image credit: Adapted from NOAA/ESRL/PSD; Source: EOS Meeting Report.


What exactly is an AR?
The very definition of an atmospheric river is something of a work in progress. Although heavy rain and snow is the main concern with ARs, the events are best classified by the amount of water vapor being carrried through the air. In general, an AR is a narrow corridor transporting large amounts of water vapor. ARs typically have a fairly strong meridional component (movement along a north-south axis), although they can be oriented zonally (east-west) as well. They are closely associated with the preexisting concept of low-level jet streams, and of course they’re not literally channeled in banks like an earthbound river.

The AR label was coined by Yong Zhu and Reginald Newell in a 1998 paper published in Monthly Weather Review. Zhu and Newell estimated that about 95% of the water vapor moving across midlatitudes toward the poles was being carried in plumes that spanned just 10% of Earth’s circumference at those latitudes. (At least some of this moisture may be generated directly at midlatitudes rather than being transported there, an idea put forth by Helen Dacre [University of Reading] in a 2015 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.)

ARs are traditionally defined as being at least 2000 kilometers long and no wider than 1000 km, although a growing practice is simply to required that the length be at least twice the width. In midlatitudes, ARs typically have a peak value of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of at least 250 kilograms per meter per second. IVT denotes the amount of water vapor being carried across a line drawn at Earth’s surface, going up through the full depth of the atmosphere.

As with tropical cyclones, satellites are critical for detecting ARs over the ocean. At first, satellites could only provide limited detail on how much atmospheric moisture was present at each level of the atmosphere. The advent of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) in 1987 allowed for the detection of integrated water vapor--the total amount above a point at Earth’s surface. This was a huge advance, opening the door to eventual real-time mapping of water vapor across the oceans as well as tracking of atmospheric rivers as they headed toward shore. Other tools such as GPS water vapor sensors are employed over land, where the SSM/I product doesn’t work as well. We now have automated routines that can infer the presence of ARs over land and sea in both historical and current datasets, and project their development days into the future. One product at CW3E projects AR development based on GFS model forecasts going out up to 180 hours.



Figure 2. Forecast of integrated water vapor transport (IVT, in kilograms per meter per second) derived from the GFS model run at 06Z (2:00 am EDT) Tuesday, August 9, 2016, and valid at 06Z (2:00 am EDT) Thursday, August 11. High values of IVT correspond to large amounts of water vapor being transported. Flash flooding is possible across parts of Minnesota late Wednesday (see below) as an AR-type moisture channel interacts with a strong upper-level trough and an associated cold front. Image credit: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD.


Figure 3. Two runners watch as waves crash against the rocks near San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge on December 28, 2005. A series of wet winter storms associated with an atmospheric river event struck California in late December 2005 and early January 2006, bringing more than 20” of precipitation to the Sierra Nevada and widespread 24-hour rainfall totals of more than 5” on New Year’s Eve. Image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.

More than California
The iconic Pineapple Express--the southwesterly current that gained fame in the 1990s as a prolific rain and snow producer for the U.S. West Coast--is just one type of atmospheric river. As much as half of precipitation along the U.S. West Coast has been found to be AR-related. However, ARs can be found across the globe, especially if you broaden the definition so that the required IVT amounts are a certain percentage above the local norm rather than a fixed threshold worldwide. Based on this type of location-adjusted classification, ARs extend from the tropics all the way to Greenland and Antarctica, where they can account for a surprising percentage of precipitation. In a 2014 paper for Geophysical Research Letters, Irina Gorodestskaya (University of Aveiro, Portugal) reported that major spikes in snowfall across parts of East Antarctica in 2009 and 2011 were related to clusters of several AR events in each year.


Figure 4. The percentage of total annual precipitation that falls during atmospheric river events, based on an algorithm that detects AR events in climatological analyses. Across much of California as well as Tennessee and Kentucky, the percentage tops 30%. Image credit: Courtesy Bin Guan, UCLA and NASA/JPL.


Figure 5. California’s Lake Mendocino in December 2006. Image credit: Kglavin/Wikimedia Commons.

How AR forecasts might help save water ahead of drought
One of the perversities of California’s water storage system is the requirement that some large reservoirs release water in midwinter to help protect against the potential for late-season flooding. The system works beautifully as a flood prevention tool, but it’s based mainly on decades-old, by-the-book rules that take into account only the water that’s fallen, the amount being stored, and the time of year, not the long-range weather forecast or the seasonal climate outlook. California’s Lake Mendocino, built in 1958 on the Russian River north of San Francisco, has never gone over its spillway, thanks to careful management by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). As an AR-type series of storms dumped more than 20 inches of rain on the region in December 2013, some 25,000 acre-feet of water--more than half a typical winter’s storage--was released from the lake, even though it was far from full at that point. The rest of the winter produced less than 10 inches of rain, and the region’s drought intensified over the next year. A more flexible storage system based on weather and climate guidance might have allowed more of that much-needed water to be kept in the lake.

Lake Mendocino is now the focus of a proof-of-concept study called FIRO (Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations) that could provide a major boost to California’s drought readiness. The goal is to apply weather and climate guidance and determine if the USACE could safely make adjustments to its mandated water-release levels, thus allowing it to keep more of the water from big AR events. “Lake Mendocino is our guinea pig,” said USACE engineer Cary Talbot. He pointed out that Congress mandates the Corps to reduce flood risk but not to protect water supply. This means that any water-saving measures must be rigorously evaluated and shown not to affect flood risk. FIRO’s goal is a big one, with a hefty forecasting challenge that’s brought in a raft of collaborating institutions. Nobody here in drought-tormented California needs to be told that the stakes are high. As Jeanine Jones (California Department of Water Resources) put it, “These days we expect our water to work a lot harder….What was good enough in the past [isn’t] good enough now.”

I’ll have more news from the AR conference in an upcoming post. For more background on ARs, see:

--this handy 2015 overview in Forbes by Marshall Shepherd (University of Georgia)
--a more detailed FAQ from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
--an even more comprehensive mini-review by Luis Gimeno (University of Vigo, Spain) and colleagues, published in 2014 in the open-access journal Frontiers in Earth Science


Figure 6. Total rainfall projected by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center for the 7-day period from 8:00 am EDT Tuesday, August 9, 2016, to 8:00 am EDT Tuesday, August 16. Some localized amounts could exceed these projections by a considerable margin. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

Big rains still on tap for Southwest, Gulf Coast
As we reported on Monday, this week holds the potential for major deluges along the central Gulf Coast and the southern Arizona desert. The NWS cautioned on Monday afternoon that significant river flooding would be possible later this week along parts of the Gulf Coast. Parts of the region have already notched 6” to 10” over the last several days, and additional rainfall amounts in some spots could exceed 10” by the weekend, especially near the coastline from New Orleans, LA, to Apalachicola, FL. A flood watch was in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of Florida.

Flash flood watches are in place over most of Arizona and parts of western New Mexico, with heavy rains already occurring south of Tucson on Tuesday morning. An unusually strong upper-level trough for early August will be interacting with a slug of moisture circulating into the area along the east side of Tropical Depression Javier, which is weakening as it grinds northwestward along the west coast of Baja California. Showers and thunderstorms should dump at least an inch of rain over widespread areas, with much higher amounts possible locally as a result of small-scale features impossible to predict in advance. Nighttime storms are possible with this unusually potent set-up, which would exacerbate the risk for any motorists attempting to drive through high water.

In addition, as shown in Figure 2 above, large amounts of atmospheric moisture will be converging on the Upper Midwest by late Wednesday ahead of the strong-for-August upper-level trough. The NWS has tagged parts of north central Minnesota with a moderate risk of flash flooding by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Apart from Javier, there are no tropical cyclones or areas of immediate interest in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific. In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Conson is gradually strengthening over open waters, while Tropical Storm Omais continues on the decline east of Japan.

We’ll have our next post by Thursday at the latest.

Bob Henson


Atmospheric Phenomena Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr. Henson!
Thanks Mr. Henson.
Thanks Mr Henson. Really enjoyed this blog entry
Thank you. Great read Mr. Henson
Good read, thanks!
Hey, cool subject, those ARs. Thank you! Looking forward to come home from office later on and read it ...
Looking rather blobish and more put together today!
Expecting heavy rain again today in South Alabama. Was able to go outside this morning and feel comfortable for the first time in a while with the fog and mist. I ended up with 9 tenths of rainfall yesterday while Opp, Alabama got upwards of 4 inches and some flooding in low lying areas. Temperatures are only up to 82°F which may not allow storms to fire quiet as quick as they did yesterday. Have a good day and stay safe!
NWS radar showing a elongated spin in the storms south of Pensacola.
Quoting 11. Tcwx2:

Expecting heavy rain again today in South Alabama. Was able to go outside this morning and feel comfortable for the first time in a while with the fog and mist. I ended up with 9 tenths of rainfall yesterday while Opp, Alabama got upwards of 4 inches and some flooding in low lying areas. Temperatures are only up to 82°F which may not allow storms to fire quiet as quick as they did yesterday. Have a good day and stay safe!

My mom lives in Alabama, Valley Grande to be exact. Can't say if that's east, west, north, south or in between. I have no idea. Nice place though
Quoting 10. Climate175:

Oh God.When will we see something different?
This system is now bring ing much needed rain to the East coast of South Florida. I guess that's good news ,right?
Double barrel low pressure system evident on satellite, radar, and CIMSS 850mb vort product with one center inland over the panhandle of Florida and one south of it in the Gulf of Mexico.

Quoting 17. birdsrock2016:

This system is now bring ing much needed rain to the East coast of South Florida. I guess that's good news ,right?

Yes! We really needed this. It has also been nice since it's the last week of summer vacation for the kids here. I can finally stay home and get something done! Thanks rain =)
Hello all-

I hope to see some Atlantic action starting mid-month. Watch at least one of these African waves become a sleeper wave that wakes up in our neck of the woods.
14z HRRR seems to like the idea of spinning up the convection in the gulf south of pensacola.

cant get the loop to post here but its at the below link

14zHRRR
Great post Bob - more the reason why California needs to look at AR's seriously. Thanks
I wonder how much of this research is being incorporated in climate modeling. I've often wondered how accurate the models are regarding the movement of increased water vapor in the air, and this research certainly seems to apply.

Yea I live near Andalusia, Alabama. Valley Grande is about 100 miles northwest of me. I've never been there though.
Quoting 14. wadadlian:


My mom lives in Alabama, Valley Grande to be exact. Can't say if that's east, west, north, south or in between. I have no idea. Nice place though

Buoys North of the GOM Blob have winds out of the NE and buoys South of the Blob have winds out of the SW, definitely some rotation but likely too close to land to amount to anything.
Thanks for the fascinating Post Mr. Henson...
Hello All..

93 degrees here but the hot air is intolerable as Trump is in town in Wilmington today

12z GFS

Quoting 29. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the fascinating Post Mr. Henson...

Hey Ped, how's it going? It's been a while since I last saw you on the blog.How is the drought/weather on your side? Hopefully, TS Javier can bring some much-needed moisture to you guys. Anyways, here's my 7- day forecast:



GFS spitting out systems..

Quoting 30. ncstorm:

Hello All..

93 degrees here but the hot air is intolerable as Trump is in town in Wilmington today

12z GFS



Shhh. Maybe if we ignore it, it'll go away.
interesting read, thanks for the post!!! I so dig the weather!
back in the early part of the 1900 i remember reading about a mini atmospheric river a low level trough out of latin america over cuba out to the atlantic. i remember reading a spot on cuba sw shores received over 100 inches for that event. a trough can dump a heck of a lot rain.
Great post reading. We saw a lot of those last year.

Quoting 37. islander101010:

back in the early part of the 1900 i remember reading about a mini atmospheric river a low level trough out of latin america over cuba out to the atlantic. i remember reading a spot on cuba sw shores received over 100 inches for that event. a trough can dump a heck of a lot rain.



which is what I kind of think Florida is having right now.
soon near peak....
CMC, ECMWF, and GFS all put a low off the East Coast around 220 hours. It's a low that comes off the East Coast and spins up in the Atlantic.
I just thought it was interesting that all three models were in agreement with a low forming that far out in time. Something to watch out for now that the Atlantic has cooled off (not much going on)
Just heard on NPR that they have recovered the data recorder from the El Faro.



After closing observing this satellite and radar loops, it is possible that something is coming together south of Pensacola, near 29N. It would not surprise me if we did have TC development as this system slowly tracks toward the west. I have seen similar patterns before that have led to development near the coast of the north central GOM. Such systems will develop with the heaviest concentration of the convection (and winds) on the south and east side of the system.
44. DVG
Some spin on this radar in the GOM south of Pensacola

http://www.sfwmd.gov
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091710
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure near the
Florida panhandle. This system is forecast to move over land and
development is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Roth/Burke/Pasch
Disorganized area of showers ENE of the Bahamas continues to remain stationary and wax and wane. Now in a favorable shear environment.

Low level spin just east of PR continues westward.

Link



Quoting 38. Grothar:

Great post reading. We saw a lot of those last year.


Quoting 42. HaoleboySurfEC:

Just heard on NPR that they have recovered the data recorder from the El Faro.


Data Recorder Recovered Will be interesting to find out what went on before the ship went down.
Quoting 37. islander101010:

back in the early part of the 1900 i remember reading about a mini atmospheric river a low level trough out of latin america over cuba out to the atlantic. i remember reading a spot on cuba sw shores received over 100 inches for that event. a trough can dump a heck of a lot rain.


Taz will be begging for the rain to stop if California gets a repeat of this wet season, which probably contained multiple AR events within it.

Megaflood: 43 days of rain, California under water
Thanks for link. At work. Will check out later. Tragic tale.

Quoting 48. Astrometeor:



Data Recorder Recovered Will be interesting to find out what went on before the ship went down.
FIM, GFS, GFS Ensembles saying a Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf system to watch in 7 to 9 days. Would like to see either GEM or EURO see it too before jumping onboard myself. On phone so no graphics currently, sorry.
Can anyone tell me if TS Javier made landfall on the Baja peninsula last night or this morning?
Possible GOM screaming meemie....forming.





boc 200 hrs? most likely pouch 16
Very interesting convective lines forming this afternoon too.

Quoting 53. CaboKid:

Can anyone tell me if TS Javier made landfall on the Baja peninsula last night or this morning?


Hard to tell, but looks like he just missed the coast.

Would be neat to see the NHC launch a NOAA Coyote drone into the gom.

Typically when an area this size in the GOM is covered with convection something is trying to brew. Glad a lot of the rain is staying off shore but know doubt as the low drifts West my are of NW Florida will get its share.



64. IDTH
Quoting 52. TXCWC:

FIM, GFS, GFS Ensembles saying a Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf system to watch in 7 to 9 days. Would like to see either GEM or EURO see it too before jumping onboard myself. On phone so no graphics currently, sorry.

At least it's something to maybe watch.
Seems wpc surface low agrees on the surface low I've been tracking.



Get the recon pod updated and wheels up asap.

Someone politely awaken grothar

Get some java brewing too.


Quoting 66. RitaEvac:

A 19,000-ton oil rig has blown ashore in Scotland






Big un too.

They best get some tugs and lines or the rig is doomed.
Quoting 65. Patrap:

Seems wpc surface low agrees on the surface low I've been tracking.



Get the recon pod updated and wheels up asap.

Somneone politely awaken grothar


Get some java brewing too.





Wake up Gro! Time to get to work, protecting 'Murica and stuff.

GFS Ensembles.
65. Patrap

I wonder if it will be worthy of Gro's Blobalert ?
Mobile radar,Echo Tops

GOES-14 is operating in SRSO-R Mode
CIMSS Satellite Blog, August 9th, 2016
GOES-14 is in SRSO-R mode from today through 25 August, providing 1-minute imagery over western portions of the United States. The geographic footprint for 9 August 2016 is shown above (realtime images), and the 15-minute animation contains 13 images, versus the normal 2 that GOES-East or GOES-West would provide during routine scanning. This one-minute imagery is being provided to help prepare for GOES-R; GOES-R is scheduled to launch on 4 November, and when operational it will routinely provide 1-minute imagery in mesoscale sectors.
Shown below is a comparison of GOES-15 (GOES-West), GOES-14 and GOES-13 (GOES-East) Visible images covering the longer 1-hour period of 1230-1330 UTC, focusing on a area of thunderstorms over North Texas. During this time, there are 53 images from GOES-14, compared to 7 images from GOES-15 and 5 images from GOES-13 — note how the evolution of overshooting tops is very easy to follow using the 1-minute GOES-14 imagery. ...

Follow link above to get the images.

CIMSS GOES-14:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor2016/GOES-14 _SRSOR.html

#66 RitaEvac : these are data from 2 stations in Scotland, located in the mountains so they're not representative of the strength of the winds elsewhere, but still, that was quite a powerful storm. I'm not particularly impressed at wind gust speed (during winter storms, gusts can top 200 km/h at Cairngorm), but mean wind speed is fairly respectable. Now I'm waiting for fresh weather news from Norway, the last 48 hours precip totals look impressive up there. Data for August 7 : 1. Cairngorm - alt. 1245m. 2. Bealach Na Ba - alt. 763m.

Lower line = mean wind speed. Upper line = wind gust speed. Km/h. Source : Meteo-ciel.fr.
(i) MetOffice - Where are the windiest parts of the UK
Good info there barbamz, thanx for it.
Thanks for this post, Bob. It jogged my memory about the historic great flood of 1862 in Oregon, California and Nevada that was probably a multiple AR event, one that seems to be extremely rare. I suspect that there have been other such events on a grand scale on Earth in the more modern era but reporting, much less scientific details, were lacking for precise definition.

With the climate changing and individual events become more extreme, I would think this phenomenon is a well worth the research because it can deliver a devastating impact greater than large hurricanes. The 1862 flood may have been an anomaly but we're living in times when extremely rare events could be intruding at a higher rate.
77. wpb
Quoting 61. Patrap:

Would be neat to see the NHC launch a NOAA Coyote drone into the gom.


they drooped on into javier yesterday
Saw where AF 301 made that recon yesterday.
I was wondering why when looking towards the Gulf the clouds are going east to west vs the north to south motion the local Met was saying.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 51m51 minutes ago
Atmospheric moisture levels in Mid-Atlantic (PWATS >2.0") near record levels late this week
Thursday through Monday, precipitable water levels are forecast to be at least two inches and even 2.5-2.75 inches, which is in historic territory. The highest precipitable water level ever measured in Washington was 2.56 inches on Aug 13, 1955. If the precipitable water reaches 2.33 inches, it would rank among the top 10 highest levels on record.

Surface dew points, direct measures of the humidity, are forecast to climb above 70 degrees Wednesday and range from 75-to-80 degrees at times Friday through the weekend.
Quoting 79. hurcoloid:

I was wondering why when looking towards the Gulf the clouds are going east to west vs the north to south motion the local Met was saying.


The surface winds in Pensacola, for example, are from the SE while the flow aloft that steers the storms is from a northerly direction. Perhaps the clouds you are observing are in the lower levels and driven by surface wind direction.
Anybody concerned with the old area of convection refiring above the Bahamas?? Seemed like it was sheared apart a few days ago and left for dead but now it looks like it breathing/pulsing up again with a little spin thrown in to boot. Looks like the shear has dropped off too.
Guess folks of La Palma wish for an atmospheric river to bear down on them:
Canary Islands fire ravages 7% of La Palma
Fire allegedly started by a man who set light to toilet paper has scorched 12,000 acres since it started last Wednesday
The Guardian: Tuesday 9 August 2016 12.18 BST
Can anyone on the blog do some graphic design work? Have an idea for a blog t-shirt design. Very simple design in mind, but unique to us blogheads. Maybe a couple of designs and run it by a vote. Please WU Mail me.

Nws radar is down for Nola, this is the mobile look as we has storms on the n shore aiming for the s shore.

Tucson checking in. It is unusual to have morning rains during the monsoon season, but every now and again a tropical system helps out.

I would attach a photo, but for the life of me, I can't figure out how...
NHC giving it no love. Both myself and islander have been noting it. Shear environment went from unfavorable to favorable in last 24 hours. Pulses during day, only to wane overnight. It is basically stationary. The vorticity maps do show a little more spin today but very little or none at lower levels so far.

Quoting 82. dartboardmodel:

Anybody concerned with the old area of convection refiring above the Bahamas?? Seemed like it was sheared apart a few days ago and left for dead but now it looks like it breathing/pulsing up again with a little spin thrown in to boot. Looks like the shear has dropped off too.
My wife is going to Dauphin Island, AL with some friends Friday-Sunday this weekend. Will this system still be around to ruin their plans? Thanks.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 33m
From 2003-2007, the Atlantic had 8 Cat. 5 hurricanes. 0 Cat. 5s have occurred in the Atlantic since 2007.
The NAM keeps the low hanging out around the Gulf Coast for at least two more days.
Nothing happening under the storms in the NE gulf formation wise.




Afternoon folks.
Would love to read a discussion on the shear map.
LinkShear Map 850mb vorticity
NWS Mobile,Alabama discussion
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Latest satellite loops
continue to show a broad upper low over n fl...southeast ga and the
adjacent gulf waters along the fl big bend. At the surface a weak
trof of low pressure stretched from the fl big bend to the central
gulf south of Pensacola which has been the main area for increased
moisture convergence for the last 24 hours helping to maintain heavy
showers and thunderstorms well offshore. Further to the west and
north a weak sfc boundary is also noted stretching from near
Andalusia al to south of Dauphin Island which should help in the
initial development of showers and thunderstorms later in the day.
Latest model soundings continue to show a very moist pattern with
pwats up to 2.4 inches for most areas. With this combined with
increased mid level forcing from the approaching upper low to the
east expect another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to occur over the marine area and along the the coast
early this morning shifting inland later in the day mostly from
daytime heating and weak seabreeze circulations. The main concern
with the heavier convection will be the potential of flash flooding
by this afternoon or early evening mostly local in coverage. Due to
the high moisture content in the boundary layer better cloud to
ground lightning will also be likely with the stronger thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms should continue to move in a north to south fashion
through tonight. Due to better clouds and rain afternoon temps will
continue to be in the lower 90s inland and the upper 80s along the
immediate coast today followed by lows in the mid 70s inland and the
upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...By Wednesday morning
the upper low pressure area will be centered over the north central
Gulf of Mexico. This upper low is still forecast to continue on its
west-northwestward track through the short term and settle over the
lower Mississippi River region by late Thursday night. Meanwhile a
small surface low pressure area forming near the coast will also move
west-northwestward and open back up to a surface trough or boundary.

Precipitable water values will also remain very high, ranging from
2.3 to 2.7 inches on Wednesday and Thursday. Slightly drier air will
move into the region from the east Thursday night as the low pressure
system moves west of the area. This will allow precipitable water
values to lower, ranging from near 2.1 inches across our eastern
zones to 2.4 inches across our western zones.

As upper level disturbances rotate around the upper level low along
with decreasing stability during the daytime hours, maintained
definite rain shower and thunderstorm activity across the southern
half of the forecast area throughout the day Wednesday with likely
coverage across the northern half. Likely to definite rain shower and
thunderstorm activity will also occur on Thursday, with the best
occurring across our southwest and western zones closest to the
exiting upper low. Additional rainfall totals through the short term
should range from 3 to 6 inches southwest of a line from Waynesboro
MS to Crestview FL, and from 1.3 to 3 inches northeast of this line.
Localized higher rainfall amounts are certainly likley near areas of
training showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will range from 85 to
90 degrees. Low temperatures each night will be in the mid 70s
inland areas with upper 70s along the immediate coastal sections.
/22

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A weak surface trough across the
forecast area Friday morning will continue to lift northwest away
from the region. This will allow a surface ridge across the central
Gulf of Mexico to move northward over the northern Gulf of Mexico by
Friday evening, and lift even further to the north across the
southeast states by the end of the weekend. Likely rain shower and
thunderstorm activity will persist through Friday, followed by a
continuing downward trend in rain chances throughout the long term as
drier air moves into the region. Expect a return to a more diurnal
convective pattern with scattered to likely coverage during the
daytime hours and isolated to scattered coverage overnight.
Additional rainfall totals from Friday through the weekend should
range from 1 to 2 inches. Little change in the overall temperature
pattern is expected. /22

Now, now, calm down! It's just your ordinary, common blob and splat which happen this time of year. If anything develops from these two features, it will be slow. I have never let you boys and girls down yet. Just don't expect every blob to become a giant. It's like with our kids. We all expect them them to be Einsteins when we first see them, but the truth of the matter is most turn out to be nothing by lovable blobs.

good update nice info thanks for the read

been busy yesterday and today trying to get as much done before the main heat moves in later tonight and the rest of the week after that
Quoting 94. Grothar:

Now, now, calm down! It's just your ordinary, common blob and splat which happen this time of year. If anything develops from these two features, it will be slow. I have never let you boys and girls yet. Just don't expect every blob to become a giant. It's like with our kids. We all expect them them to be Einsteins when we first see them, but the truth of the matter is most turn out to be nothing by lovable blobs.




You can see on the visible satellite that the "blob" is part of the huge ULL that is circulation over the northern GOM and the Gulf Coast States. The ULL looks to be centered near the Georgia and Alabama boarder.
The circulation looks pretty amazing (huge) on this visibile sat loop . Link
tomorrows forecast calls for humidex reading of 107 or just above by afternoon
and again Thursday Friday Saturday till evening then cool down sunday too 75 one day
then rebound upward again earlier next week
Quoting 52. TXCWC:

FIM, GFS, GFS Ensembles saying a Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf system to watch in 7 to 9 days. Would like to see either GEM or EURO see it too before jumping onboard myself. On phone so no graphics currently, sorry.


In regards to your Profile Pic...
Quoting 89. washingtonian115:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 33m
From 2003-2007, the Atlantic had 8 Cat. 5 hurricanes. 0 Cat. 5s have occurred in the Atlantic since 2007.


1939 - 1952 had 0 Cat. 5s. However, the 40s was a high impact decade in terms of landfalls. Most notable was 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane, 1944 Great Atlantic, 1945 Homestead, 1945 Texas, 1945 OBX, and 1944 Cuba-Florida Hurricane. Yep, that pretty much covers it. It just makes you realize you don't need a Cat. 5 to mess things up and it makes you wunder when we will get the next BIG ONE?
All the rain in gulf should cool the water temperatures a lot over next 3 days.
Quoting 95. Patrap:




%uD83D%uDE02
Quoting 102. bigwes6844:




Based on that image, pressures are lowest on the South Texas and Northern Mexico coast where it's sunny and dry as a bone.
Quoting 31. birdsrock2016:


Hey Ped, how's it going? It's been a while since I last saw you on the blog.How is the drought/weather on your side? Hopefully, TS Javier can bring some much-needed moisture to you guys. Anyways, here's my 7- day forecast:





No change in the Drought, here is my 7day
Quoting 104. southernstorm:

I don't know why I keep laughing every time you put Quint on your posts, but I'll just enjoy and not analyze.



Euro showing a decent CV low on the 19th.
I'd keep an eye on the Caribbean by the end of this week and into next week - a CCKW and favourable upward motion in association with the MJO will be moving over. Could see a spin up similar to Earl or something in the BOC like the GFS is hinting at.
Quoting 110. Envoirment:

I'd keep an eye on the Caribbean by the end of this week and into next week - a CCKW and favourable upward motion in association with the MJO will be moving over. Could see a spin up similar to Earl or something in the BOC like the GFS is hinting at.


Still nothing for me...
wow.

Quoting 106. bayoubug:



Fujiwara over Florida
Quoting 80. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 51m51 minutes ago
Atmospheric moisture levels in Mid-Atlantic (PWATS >2.0") near record levels late this week
Thursday through Monday, precipitable water levels are forecast to be at least two inches and even 2.5-2.75 inches, which is in historic territory. The highest precipitable water level ever measured in Washington was 2.56 inches on Aug 13, 1955. If the precipitable water reaches 2.33 inches, it would rank among the top 10 highest levels on record.

Surface dew points, direct measures of the humidity, are forecast to climb above 70 degrees Wednesday and range from 75-to-80 degrees at times Friday through the weekend.



Looks like typical August heat but yeah the humidity is forecast to be uncommonly bad. The morning dewpoints in the mid 70s are common during heat waves here but drier air from aloft mixes down during most of these heat wave afternoons. But we look sufficiently capped to confine mixing to only 5000 feet or so and what will be remarkable is persistance of those 75F dewpoints into the midafternoon. Very high HIX will verify if that happens.

When I was a kid we got cold fronts with teeth once or twice a month even in midsummer.
This westerly flow is proving to be very helpful for the East Coast. Major line of storms moving towards the coast.
Quoting 106. bayoubug:




Boy, it sure looks like it wants to do something.....
Now I wasn't expecting such spectacular news (in connection with #74), but :
Mountain sets off a new "red alert" / NewsinEnglish.no - August 9.
The Norwegian mountain known as "Mannen" was once again threatening to crash down into the valley below it on Tuesday, prompting state officials to issue a new "red alert" and evacuate those living there. (...) Lars Harald Blikra, chief geologist at Norway's state agency in charge of waterways that also monitors landmass movement, said (...) "the danger has increased in connection with the enormous quantities of rain we've had lately," he told NRK. He said that nearly 20 millimeters of rain fell in a six-hour period at the top of Mannen, destabilizing the mountainside.
1. Mount Mannen - Google maps /// 2. NCEP - precip accumulation 10-day outlook
If this isn't enough to trigger a massive landslide, I don't know what will.
119. Tcwx2
Got a nice heavy shower with some gusty winds about 30 minutes ago, now getting the remnants of a hefty storm which is only a light shower now. The first storm that I got is very strong now and a whole lot bigger! Looks to be off and on for the rest of the day unless storms decide to cluster. Low still looks broad but spinning motion is a little more noticeable today to me. Also, I am beginning to notice favorable conditions aloft and you can now see outflow from the thunderstorms in the gulf streaming southward. Have a wonderful day!
Local met just said that the ULL across the Panhandle area will move to the north on Friday allowing for our normal Summer pattern to return down here in S.W. Florida.
Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




What a tease for FL, with big, nasty looking blobs off each coast. Surely must be putting a lot of people on edge, even if forecast to not being something tropical forming! This time of year, not what you want to see offshore really. And of course the southern coast in general and Bahamas, but FL looks sandwiched.
Quoting 121. mitthbevnuruodo:



What a tease for FL, with big, nasty looking blobs off each coast. Surely must be putting a lot of people on edge, even if forecast to not being something tropical forming! This time of year, not what you want to see offshore really. And of course the southern coast in general and Bahamas, but FL looks sandwiched.

it will bring rains has been and continues to be so locked in pattern really
need something strong too sweep it all out including the heat and humidity
that may not happen till latter half of august towards the end of the month
How hurricane season living in Eastern New England feels like is this, especially when you have been free since 1991 (before I was born). -yes I have odd ways to paint pictures- If the entire coast line is the same as people sitting along a wall and someone is hitting balls with a bat at them. There is a common area they generally go. Every now and then one catches your eye while it clocks another on the head close by. Taking a breath you wait, knowing that one day you will catch that glint of it racing across the field. Only this time the arch lowering towards your eyes faster than you can blink.

So whether you want one or not every place one day will get hit, regardless of where that is on our coast. Even Long Beach CA got struck in 1939 by a Tropical Storm. So one could even say LA will one day get hit by a 50-60mph event. ;)

Orleans Parish


Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsAreal Flood WatchIssued: 1:39 PM CDT Aug. 9, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday
morning...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi... including the following areas... in southeast
Louisiana... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower
Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne...
Orleans... St. Charles... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper
Terrebonne. In Mississippi... Hancock... Harrison and Jackson.

* From Wednesday evening through Friday morning

* abundant tropical moisture pooled along a stationary boundary
aligned with the Gulf Coast will become increasingly favorable
for heavy rains and the potential of flooding in the central
Gulf Coast region. Storm total rainfall accumulations onsetting
Wednesday through Friday morning could range between 5 and 8
inches with some locally higher amounts close to 10
inches... particularly near the Mississippi coast and into the
Metro New Orleans area.

* Impacts include ponding of waters in low lying and poorly
drained areas... elevated levels on area rivers and streams. If
heavy rains persist over locations for any significant
duration... then flash flooding may result.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. The Flood Watch may be expanded in areal extent
and time as this event unfolds through the weekend.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.



24/rr

Forecasters Roth/Burke/Pasch all signed the 2PM TWO giving the Gulf low near 0% of developing. That's reassuring, except that when three guys go out on a limb together, the limb is more likely to snap!
Quoting 125. Grothar:




That line of storms is almost covering the entire East Coast of Florida from near Jacksonville all the way to the Keys.
Quoting 124. Patrap:


I feel like I should rope off the neutral ground and prepare to start charging for parking spots. :)

I see in the 5 day outlook the largest amounts of rain will be in the metro area now. Stay dry!

Quoting 126. PensacolaBuoy:

Forecasters Roth/Burke/Pasch all signed the 2PM TWO giving the Gulf low near 0% of developing. That's reassuring, except that when three guys go out on a limb together, the limb is more likely to snap!


The low should lift north into the Mississippi River Valley later this week. But a lot of rain could fall between now and then over already saturated ground.
Quoting 128. nolajet:



I feel like I should rope off the neutral ground and prepare to start charging for parking spots. :)

I see in the 5 day outlook the largest amounts of rain will be in the metro area now. Stay dry!




Getting heavy rains right now in Melbourne with flashes of lightning.
Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:



That line of storms is almost covering the entire East Coast of Florida from near Jacksonville all the way to the Keys.
we have had 26 days of 30c temps or greater not counting today tomorrow thur/fri into it by sat it will be 30 days and we have had the driest last 100 days ever on record
Quoting 100. GTstormChaserCaleb:



1939 - 1952 had 0 Cat. 5s. However, the 40s was a high impact decade in terms of landfalls. Most notable was 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane, 1944 Great Atlantic, 1945 Homestead, 1945 Texas, 1945 OBX, and 1944 Cuba-Florida Hurricane. Yep, that pretty much covers it. It just makes you realize you don't need a Cat. 5 to mess things up and it makes you wunder when we will get the next BIG ONE?
Do you mean no cat-5's for the Atlantic Basin,?..1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane hit cat-5 strength...Link
Quoting 133. hydrus:

Do you mean no cat-5's for the Atlantic Basin,?..1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane hit cat-5 strength...Link
ya all don't want a cat 5 anywhere anyway trust me on that but if one persists eventually one will come
Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Looks like a chopped off Hurricane.
Quoting 133. hydrus:

Do you mean no cat-5's for the Atlantic Basin,?..1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane hit cat-5 strength...Link


Reanalysis has this as a CAT 4 at its strongest
Quoting 123. George1938:

How hurricane season living in Eastern New England feels like is this, especially when you have been free since 1991 (before I was born). -yes I have odd ways to paint pictures- If the entire coast line is the same as people sitting along a wall and someone is hitting balls with a bat at them. There is a common area they generally go. Every now and then one catches your eye while it clocks another on the head close by. Taking a breath you wait, knowing that one day you will catch that glint of it racing across the field. Only this time the arch lowering towards your eyes faster than you can blink.

So whether you want one or not every place one day will get hit, regardless of where that is on our coast. Even Long Beach CA got struck in 1939 by a Tropical Storm. So one could even say LA will one day get hit by a 50-60mph event. ;)


I feel this way about tornadoes in Maryland
Quoting 136. Hurricanes101:



Reanalysis has this as a CAT 4 at its strongest


This. The 1947 Ft. Lauderdale hurricane is now assessed at 145 mph, a solid Cat 4. Link
Quoting 118. 999Ai2016:

Now I wasn't expecting such spectacular news (in connection with #74), but :
Norway. Mountain sets off a new "red alert" / NewsinEnglish.no - August 9.
The Norwegian mountain known as "Mannen" was once again threatening to crash down into the valley below it on Tuesday, prompting state officials to issue a new "red alert" and evacuate those living there. (...) Lars Harald Blikra, chief geologist at Norway's state agency in charge of waterways that also monitors landmass movement, said (...) "the danger has increased in connection with the enormous quantities of rain we've had lately," he told NRK. He said that nearly 20 millimeters of rain fell in a six-hour period at the top of Mannen, destabilizing the mountainside.
1. Mount Mannen - Google maps /// 2. NCEP - precip accumulation 10-day outlook
If this isn't enough to trigger a massive landslide, I don't know what will.

Ah, Mannen, our old acquaintance! Thanks for that. Sometimes I was wondering what the hunk was doing after having watched it by webcams for several days to drop (umm, last year, or the year before?), and it just didn't. ;-)
Quoting 132. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we have had 26 days of 30c temps or greater not counting today tomorrow thur/fri into it by sat it will be 30 days and we have had the driest last 100 days ever on record


DC had 67 days of 90F (32.222C) or higher in 1980 and 2010. Wish we could store some of that heat for next February! Not close to a record total this year because June was moderate. Rainfall has been timely and generally adequate.. not dry at all though we're drying out fast this past week.
Quoting 139. barbamz:

Ah, Mannen, our old acquaintance! Thanks for that. Sometimes I was wondering what the hunk was doing after having watched it by webcams for several days to drop (umm, last year, or the year before?), and it just didn't. ;-)

You're welcome, and I guess you can resume your watch, now is the time, more than ever ;-)
We can add Norway to the list of countries that have suffered from bad floods this week.
Norway - Flood damage rises, more rain falling - August 8.
It would be awesome to track something like this.

Quoting 140. georgevandenberghe:



DC had 67 days of 90F (32.222C) or higher in 1980 and 2010. Wish we could store some of that heat for next February! Not close to a record total this year because June was moderate.
ya the onshore flow was happening then I remember u guys were chilling while we were and still are slowly roasting
144. flsky
Love this pic!

Quoting 130. Patrap:




Quoting 134. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya all don't want a cat 5 anywhere anyway trust me on that but if one persists eventually one will come
Greetings Keep..Believe me, I would never want a cat-5, but it will happen.
Quoting 142. washingtonian115:

It would be awesome to track something like this.




Is that Edouard?
Someone has probably said this already, but if this thing drifts a little to the south we may very well have a TD or TC.


Quoting 146. Hurricanes101:



Is that Edouard?
Yes it is Edouard of 1996 which was a classic long track cape verde hurricane and is something of the likes of which I don't think we'll see this year.It stayed a cat 4 for a long time weakened some and then regained cat 4 status again.
150. MahFL
Doom ! MJO over the Gulf :

Someone has probably said this already, but if this thing drifts a little to the south we may very well have a TD or TS.


152. flsky
Getting some great rain in Ponce Inlet! Very little thunder, but cooling breezes.
Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:



That line of storms is almost covering the entire East Coast of Florida from near Jacksonville all the way to the Keys.
153. MahFL
Quoting 148. washingaway:

Someone has probably said this already, but if this thing drifts a little to the south we may very well have a TD or TC.





It's forecast to go north though.
Sorry for the double post, I'm posting from my iPad and I have biggly hands.
Quoting 153. MahFL:



It's forecast to go north though.

Forecast to go west
Why are posting pictures so damn difficult on this site now?

Pretty impressive satellite picture from this AOI that is situated inland over the Southeastern United States. Had this developed over water away from Florida (south of Louisiana, for example) we no doubt would have been dealing with a formidable system.

Quoting 156. washingtonian115:

Why are posting pictures so damn difficult on this site now?


Quoting 157. Grothar:




hi grothar!

newbie here, can you give me some info on this chart? ive seen you post it many a time, and was wondering who produced it, and what is with the 13 % scale?? thanks for all the info :)
Quoting 156. washingtonian115:

Why are posting pictures so damn difficult on this site now?




What do you mean by difficult? What is difficult about it?
Quoting 161. HurriHistory:



What do you mean by difficult?
I had to go through five pictures before one finally posted.
Quoting 130. Patrap:




good thing you still have those pumps we bought you.


It's easy!
Quoting 158. CybrTeddy:

Pretty impressive satellite picture from this AOI that is situated inland over the Southeastern United States. Had this developed over water away from Florida (south of Louisiana, for example) we no doubt would have been dealing with a formidable system.




Can we call this Quasi Tropical Storm Quasi? lol
Location: 28.500N 84.517W..112 NM west of Tampa,FL..
Date: Tue, 9 Aug 2016 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: SW (220°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SW (219°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.8 F
Dew Point: 76.6 F
Water Temperature: 84.0 F


Cleo was a strong cat.-2 storm that struck the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area on August 27, 1964. Sustained winds of 110- MPH in Miami with gusts to 135-MPH.
Quoting 117. SELAliveforthetropic:



Boy, it sure looks like it wants to do something.....

It's a blessing the center isn't over water right now or we could see it explode because that structure is great
img src="http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/maps/pages/12300/ f12362/f12362

Irene produced wind gusts to 85-MPH in the Miami area.


Yes, the east coast of Florida can and has been hit by Hurricanes in the month of August several times.
Quoting 133. hydrus:

Do you mean no cat-5's for the Atlantic Basin,?..1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane hit cat-5 strength...Link
Yeah, they did a reanalysis and dropped it to a Cat. 4, same with 1950 Dog and 1960 Donna. I was really surprised with Donna after looking at the pictures of the destruction. Thought it was a solid Cat. 5.
Rochester, NY hit 90F for the 18th day this year. There was a total of 16 for the last 3 years combined.
There should be 20 days by the end of the week.
Quoting 165. Methurricanes:

good thing you still have those pumps we bought you.
Pretty sure Patrap doesn't wear high heels.
;)
Quoting 177. Barefootontherocks:

Pretty sure Patrap doesn't wear high heels.
;)
he doesn't need them, because of those pumps.
Quoting 173. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yeah, they did a reanalysis and dropped it to a Cat. 4, same with 1950 Dog and 1960 Donna. I was really surprised with Donna after looking at the pictures of the destruction. Thought it was a solid Cat. 5.
Dang..I didnt know about any of those being downgraded...They had Dog at 185 mph...Thats what i call a serious downgrade.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 092324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure centered
near the coast of the western Florida panhandle. This system is
forecast to remain over land and development is not currently
expected. However, locally heavy rains are possible along portions
of the northern and northeastern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

I feel somewhere between August 17th-24th will be our next chance at a named tropical system. Didn't Dr. Gray used to always say the real hurricane season starts on August 20th? Look around that time just before or just after I bet things get going.
182. Ed22
Quoting 148. washingaway:

Someone has probably said this already, but if this thing drifts a little to the south we may very well have a TD or TC.



This trough of low pressure is very persistent over a week now, furthermore I don't the NHC will give us an update on it.
Quoting 179. hydrus:

Dang..I didnt know about any of those being downgraded...They had Dog at 185 mph...Thats what i call a serious downgrade.


I also noticed that Hurricane Carol from 1953 looks like it was upgraded to a Category 5. I do not remember it being one before reanalysis
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
354 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 9 2016

Short term...
the primary weather feature is the large swirl over the southeast U.S.
And attendant tropical moisture that is pooled across the north
Gulf of Mexico. Surface low appears to be in the Florida Panhandle
south of Dothan, Alabama and drifting westward. Precipitable water
levels are in the 2.5-2.7 inch range just off the coast and
banding precipitation was moving inland into the Apalachee Bay
area of Florida. This unsettled region will be drifting west to
become an increasing issue in the central Gulf states. Model
guidance is pretty consistent in showing rainfall enhancing along
the immediate coast likely in response to onshore flow speed
convergence to force lift and enhance sea breeze process. Due to
slow movement of system, efficient warm rain process and
likelihood of train echo banding, an areal Flood Watch has been
issued for the MS coastal counties and southeast la to include the New
Orleans Metro area. The onset time was determined to account for
some stream capacity as all streams are at low flows and could
handle the initial 1-2 inches. This situation will continued to be
monitored and adjustments will be made to the watch area and time
as warranted over the next several forecast packages.

Long term...
not much change to overall pattern as the evolution of the low
pressure system will be slow to fill and lift out through the
weekend, with perhaps some lesser influences early next week.
Despite this, an onshore flow should persist to bring pattern to a
more steady state sea breeze regime heading into Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

Aviation...
generally VFR conditions outside convective areas. Tropical
rainfall may produce visibilities in LIFR levels at times. Gust
potential from wet microbursts in the 20-25 kt range.

&&

Marine...
winds are expected to increase to moderate levels east of the
Mississippi River in response to low pressure influences Thursday
through Friday. This may result also in increased tide levels of
about 1 foot or so along the MS coast during that timeframe. Winds
and seas should ease over the weekend as influences from low
pressure system lessens.

&&

Decision support...
dss code: blue.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: Flood Watch.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 74 89 73 84 / 20 70 60 80
btr 75 89 75 84 / 20 70 60 80
asd 74 88 74 84 / 40 80 80 80
msy 76 86 76 83 / 50 80 80 80
gpt 75 87 75 84 / 60 80 80 80
pql 74 88 74 86 / 70 90 60 90

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
laz040-059>070.

GM...none.
MS...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
msz080>082.

GM...none.
&&

$$

24/rr

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Stage right about to be trapped under high pressure, low shear, Is there potential life in both post highlighted areas?

Quoting 182. Ed22:

This trough of low pressure is very persistent over a week now, furthermore I don't the NHC will give us an update on it.


The persistent convection over the N.E. GOM is supposed to clear out by later this week as the low drifts to the north and weakens.
The main focus of the remaining precipitation should be from Louisiana northward up to the Mississippi Valley.

Saturday's forecast map shows a pretty well established high pressure in the Atlantic with a more normal easterly flow across most of Florida.
Not really tied to any front.

NOAA's July AMO value came in at the 4th highest on record, behind 1998, 2010, and 2005.

Today wasn't the heaviest rain but it was over all the most ominous scene yet from the Southern Land Blob in Melbourne, FL.



Wow Skye, that looks menacing!
Quoting 189. Skyepony:

Today wasn't the heaviest rain but it was over all the most ominous scene yet from the Southern Land Blob in Melbourne, FL.




Seems we've been under a tropical air mass for 10 days now,...

With more to come.

Brian Brettschneider ‏@Climatologist49 Aug 8
Daily PDO value crashes into negative territory.

Upper Jefferson Parish


Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsAreal Flood WatchIssued: 1:39 PM CDT Aug. 9, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday
morning...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi... including the following areas... in southeast
Louisiana... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower
Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne...
Orleans... St. Charles... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper
Terrebonne. In Mississippi... Hancock... Harrison and Jackson.

* From Wednesday evening through Friday morning

* abundant tropical moisture pooled along a stationary boundary
aligned with the Gulf Coast will become increasingly favorable
for heavy rains and the potential of flooding in the central
Gulf Coast region. Storm total rainfall accumulations onsetting
Wednesday through Friday morning could range between 5 and 8
inches with some locally higher amounts close to 10
inches... particularly near the Mississippi coast and into the
Metro New Orleans area.

* Impacts include ponding of waters in low lying and poorly
drained areas... elevated levels on area rivers and streams. If
heavy rains persist over locations for any significant
duration... then flash flooding may result.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. The Flood Watch may be expanded in areal extent
and time as this event unfolds through the weekend.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.



24/rr




"Conson", dancing in the NW Pacific. Source : rapid scan floater / Himawari-8 - RAMMB/CIRA (Link).
The loop ends at about 0005 UTC, Aug. 10. I like the twin bursts of convection, occurring simultaneously at the beginning of the loop.
Good presentation @1000... looks to be riding the coast between PC and FWB...
Nobody knows more about tropical weather than I do, believe me. I know more about tropical cyclones than the NHC, believe me, believe me. I have a great brain, I consult with myself.
Quoting 175. Patrap:



LC 244 miles SW of Sopchoppy? I would not count anything out right now. Diurnal has not moved the mass of cooled air. Affecting Cuba with it's largess. Maybe it will shuffle N or W as they say. Tomorrow we'll know for sure. They told me.
I think it's closer to 1%

The mosquitoes really gonna be doing the feast.
204. SLU
Quoting 89. washingtonian115:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 33m
From 2003-2007, the Atlantic had 8 Cat. 5 hurricanes. 0 Cat. 5s have occurred in the Atlantic since 2007.


Hmm... Didn't the anthropogenic climate change proponents say that hurricanes would be getting stronger? Globally, ACE has been dying a slow death too in that period.
GFS shows a quiet August overall.
Bob Breck's Blog
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
NHC Still 0% Chance
Looking at the radar loop tonight and it sure looks like the center of rotation is reforming back over the Gulf waters south of Destin. NHC just put out their 7 pm statement saying they expect the center of the low to remain inland with 0% chance for development. Never ignore the obvious was coach Tim Floyd’s motto. We will need to closely monitor the NE Gulf overnight and into Wednesday since we have an upper high (open chimney flue) centered over South Alabama and that would aid in rapid development IF the center of the low is drifting/reforming back over the very warm northern Gulf. Buoy pressure are beginning to slowly fall and that could be the first signs that something is going on. I just get nervous about history repeating. Remember, a weak low formed off the mouth of the river back in the 80s and surprisingly strengthened into a Tropical Storm the night of a Saints preseason game. We have the 1st preseason game this Thursday night on FOX 8. Could history repeat? Stay tuned!



NWS
207. SLU
Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

GFS shows a quiet August overall.


Sounds like 2013 all over again. One storm in August would be a real surprise given the TCHP all over and the lack of an El Nino.
Quoting 89. washingtonian115:

Philip Klotzbach %u200F@philklotzbach 33m
From 2003-2007, the Atlantic had 8 Cat. 5 hurricanes. 0 Cat. 5s have occurred in the Atlantic since 2007.
If Joaquin and Gonzalo had just become a bit more stronger, we would of already ended that streak.
Quoting 207. SLU:



Sounds like 2013 all over again. One storm in August would be a real surprise given the TCHP all over and the lack of an El Nino.

Vertical instablity de ja vu... Last "real" hurricane season in the Atlantic was 2010. 2011 was the beginning after watching irene choke to death by dry air.
210. Siker
Quoting 206. lurkersince2008:

Bob Breck's Blog
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
NHC Still 0% Chance
Looking at the radar loop tonight and it sure looks like the center of rotation is reforming back over the Gulf waters south of Destin. NHC just put out their 7 pm statement saying they expect the center of the low to remain inland with 0% chance for development. Never ignore the obvious was coach Tim Floyd’s motto. We will need to closely monitor the NE Gulf overnight and into Wednesday since we have an upper high (open chimney flue) centered over South Alabama and that would aid in rapid development IF the center of the low is drifting/reforming back over the very warm northern Gulf. Buoy pressure are beginning to slowly fall and that could be the first signs that something is going on. I just get nervous about history repeating. Remember, a weak low formed off the mouth of the river back in the 80s and surprisingly strengthened into a Tropical Storm the night of a Saints preseason game. We have the 1st preseason game this Thursday night on FOX 8. Could history repeat? Stay tuned!



NWS


I interned for Bob last summer; good to see he's still maintaining his blog despite his retirement.
Quoting 204. SLU:



Hmm... Didn't the anthropogenic climate change proponents say that hurricanes would be getting stronger? Globally, ACE has been dying a slow death too in that period.
The only 'proponents' of climate change are Big Energy CEO's and the ignrant and greedy politicians in their pockets. But to your point, many scientists have speculated that storms of all types would become stronger--which is, by the way, happening--but that they'd also become less frequent.

Hope that helps.
Quoting 208. Climate175:

If Joaquin and Gonzalo had just become a bit more stronger, we would of already ended that streak.


That is true with Joaquin especially, Joaquin got up to 155, only 2 mph from a 5 and one can argue that at some point it did briefly reach that point but Recon couldn't catch it.
Quoting 206. lurkersince2008:

Bob Breck's Blog
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
NHC Still 0% Chance
Looking at the radar loop tonight and it sure looks like the center of rotation is reforming back over the Gulf waters south of Destin. NHC just put out their 7 pm statement saying they expect the center of the low to remain inland with 0% chance for development. Never ignore the obvious was coach Tim Floyd’s motto. We will need to closely monitor the NE Gulf overnight and into Wednesday since we have an upper high (open chimney flue) centered over South Alabama and that would aid in rapid development IF the center of the low is drifting/reforming back over the very warm northern Gulf. Buoy pressure are beginning to slowly fall and that could be the first signs that something is going on. I just get nervous about history repeating. Remember, a weak low formed off the mouth of the river back in the 80s and surprisingly strengthened into a Tropical Storm the night of a Saints preseason game. We have the 1st preseason game this Thursday night on FOX 8. Could history repeat? Stay tuned!



NWS

I agree. I'm not as confident as the NHC seems to be about this system being so benign! What about the concern for close in rapid development? (emergency management's worst nightmare) I'm not saying it will develop, but the "0%" chance seems ludicrous to me.
Quoting 208. Climate175:

If Joaquin and Gonzalo had just become a bit more stronger, we would of already ended that streak.


you can add Igor to that list too
216. beell
Heights beginning to rise over Tallahassee based on evening/morning soundings since Sunday night.

Time, Date, pressure level (mb), height (m) for 850 & 700 mb.

00Z 08/08 850.0 1518
12Z 08/08 850.0 1515
00Z 08/09 850.0 1511
12Z 08/09 850.0 1521
00z 08/10 850.0 1532

00Z 08/08 700.0 3160
12Z 08/08 700.0 3157
00Z 08/09 700.0 3154
12Z 08/09 700.0 3162
00Z 08/10 700.0 3179

Appears the Atlantic ridge is beginning to nose back west (as modeled) into the southeast and GOM. This thing may begin a more noticeable move to the west

These are relatively modest height falls/rises. An indication of the overall weak nature of this system.
What I've been noticing is what seems to be an extreme amount of ULL's? Seems every AOI in the Atlantic has one in tow or one or two nearby.

I've got 4 here.

Does seem to be steadily sliding into the gulf.

Quoting 217. ProgressivePulse:

What I've been noticing is what seems to be an extreme amount of ULL's? Seems every AOI in the Atlantic has one in tow or one or two nearby.

I've got 4 here.


Wow, been noticing that too, as we get further into the season, gonna need to watch if any of them try to spin their way down, just like Joaquin last year.
Quoting 211. Neapolitan:

The only 'proponents' of climate change are Big Energy CEO's and the ignrant and greedy politicians in their pockets. But to your point, many scientists have speculated that storms of all types would become stronger--which is, by the way, happening--but that they'd also become less frequent.

Hope that helps.
Well, just to be fair, other 'proponents' might include shippers wanting to shortcut through the Arctic and land speculators looking at waterfront property on Hudson Bay, otherwise right on.
Quoting 180. Climate175:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure centered
near the coast of the western Florida panhandle. This system is
forecast to remain over land and development is not currently
expected. However, locally heavy rains are possible along portions
of the northern and northeastern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
br " development is not currently expected", sounds like to me... it is expected in the future? Maybe just my perception?
222. Ed22
Quoting 218. washingaway:

Does seem to be steadily sliding into the gulf.


To me too, its sliding southward.
wave approaching the Caribbean is gaining latitude, directly behind a ULL go figure.

225. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 8h8 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
On average, 70% of Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy occurs between August 20 and October 10.
Quoting 210. Siker:



I interned for Bob last summer; good to see he's still maintaining his blog despite his retirement.
yes I'm glad he's still blogging too,especially during hurricane season.
Quoting 193. Gearsts:




Looks like a very interesting peak season is coming :)
Quoting 221. scott39:


I was gonna mention this earlier, they changed the wording from "No Development Expected" to "No Development Currently Expected". I don't think it really means anything in significance, but who knows.
Quoting 188. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NOAA's July AMO value came in at the 4th highest on record, behind 1998, 2010, and 2005.




So why do some people keep saying that the active era is over ?
231. SLU
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 10h10 hours ago
Ryan Maue Retweeted Chip Knappenberger
"no evidence found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in avail observed record."
IMPORTANT: Why does the HPC continued to up the QPF for the Houston region? Last I'd heard, the bigger flood concerns were expected in SE Louisiana.
Quoting 230. CaribBoy:



So why do some people keep saying that the active era is over ?
Apparently the so-called AMO has no predictive value.
OTOH, a good measure of the AMOC would be useful.
Quoting 231. SLU:

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 10h10 hours ago
Ryan Maue Retweeted Chip Knappenberger
"no evidence found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in avail observed record."
Right...
- Heavy Downpours Increasing - nca2014.globalchange.gov
- Record-breaking heavy rainfall events increased under global warming - pik-potsdam.de
- Are Extreme Events, Like Heat Waves, Droughts or Floods, Expected to Change as the Earth's Climate Changes? IPCC
Yes; the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth's climate changes, and these changes could occur even with relatively small mean climate changes. Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed, for example, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (see FAQ 3.3)
- Observed record-breaking daily rainfall events around the world. From Lehmann et al., Climatic Change 2015 :

So maybe this guy has another definition of climate change under which his proposition is a valid one, but let me doubt it. www.skepticalscience.com
Red Bay radar, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile

Quoting 230. CaribBoy:



So why do some people keep saying that the active era is over ?

Values dipped some in previous years as a result of the multi-year stretch without an El Nino. It seems like we needed a warm ENSO to shake things up.

That said, the Atlantic SST configuration still isn't as good as we want it to be. Ideally for storms, we want cool subtropics and a warm North Atlantic; we have the opposite this year.
Quoting 231. SLU:

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 10h10 hours ago
Ryan Maue Retweeted Chip Knappenberger
"no evidence found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in avail observed record."


Sigh, really?

"Yet again, absence of 95% attribution is not 95% attribution of absence. Tired of this trick." - Michael Tobis (actual climate scientist)

You're out of your element.
Quoting 223. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh this meme is just too much LOL :)
Quoting 231. SLU:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 10h10 hours ago
Ryan Maue Retweeted Chip Knappenberger
"no evidence found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in avail observed record."
Paul C. "Chip" Knappenberger | Cato Institute
www.cato.org/people/chip-knappenberger
Chip Knappenberger is the assistant director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute and coordinates the scientific and outreach activities for ... etc. Wow, he twitted on twitter!
Got a link to his research?
Quoting 236. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Values dipped some in previous years as a result of the multi-year stretch without an El Nino. It seems like we needed a warm ENSO to shake things up.

That said, the Atlantic SST configuration still isn't as good as we want it to be. Ideally for storms, we want cool subtropics and a warm North Atlantic; we have the opposite this year.

But the subtropics aren't that warm this year.. I think the signal is neutral. Given that, we don't need to have a super active season, but it shouldn't be like the previous four seasons due to lack of el nino
Quoting 209. wunderweatherman123:


Vertical instablity de ja vu... Last "real" hurricane season in the Atlantic was 2010. 2011 was the beginning after watching irene choke to death by dry air.

Almost any storm moving north parallel to the East Coast is going to choke on continental dry air while off the coast. The northward trajectory also means an upper-level trough is nearby, and so shear comes into play eventually. There's a reason storms have to be moving extremely quickly to be significant in the Northeast US.
Quoting 239. guygee:

Paul C. "Chip" Knappenberger | Cato Institute
www.cato.org/people/chip-knappenberger
Chip Knappenberger is the assistant director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute and coordinates the scientific and outreach activities for ... etc. Wow, he twitted on twitter!
Got a link to his research?


Paper itself, here, is actually about model resolution needed to look at regional precipitations changes. Horrible misrepresentation by Knappenberger and Maue.

" It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities and seasonal timing. In response to 2×CO2 concentrations, all models show a mean intensification of precipitation rates during extreme events of approximately 3-4% K−1. However, projected regional patterns of changes in extremes are dependent on model resolution. For example, the highest-resolution models show increased precipitation rates during extreme events in the hurricane season in the CONUS southeast, this increase is not found in the low-resolution model. These results emphasize that, for the study of extreme precipitation there is a minimum model resolution that is needed to capture the weather phenomena generating the extremes. Finally, the observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record."

Bolded part was left out of original statement. Kinda changes the entire context.
Quoting 236. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Values dipped some in previous years as a result of the multi-year stretch without an El Nino. It seems like we needed a warm ENSO to shake things up.

That said, the Atlantic SST configuration still isn't as good as we want it to be. Ideally for storms, we want cool subtropics and a warm North Atlantic; we have the opposite this year.


in other word good luck in getting too 10 named storms


can we move on too winter storm tacking please thats more fun
Quoting 244. thetwilightzone:



in other word good luck in getting too 10 named storms


can we move on too winter storm tacking please thats more fun


We will pass 10 easily. If you really believe we will only get 5 named storms for the rest of the season, then maybe you should create a winter blog on your own and we can drop in every once in awhile to say hi.
Quoting 244. thetwilightzone:



in other word good luck in getting too 10 named storms


can we move on too winter storm tacking please thats more fun

If you don't think we're getting 5 more named storms with three weeks of August, all of September, all of October, and all of November to go, I don't know what to tell you.

Quoting 214. washingaway:

Folks, we have to build a wall through the Gulf of Mexico, we have to. There are Mexician sharks infiltrating our waters, it's terrible! There were so many Mexican sharks in water, its true, believe me, that a tornado pick them up out of the water, I saw the video, right. There were so many Mexican sharks, the people were calling it a sharknadto, I saw the video, people were having to to fight the sharks, I saw one guy fighting a Mexican shark with a chainsaw, it's true, I saw the video. We have to build a wall, we have to.
that sooo made my day. Thanks Washingaway
Dry air is the life blood of the ULL, no surprise. I had some hopes earlier on, still holding but fading fast...

Quoting 246. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If you don't think we're getting 5 more named storms with three weeks of August, all of September, all of October, and all of November to go, I don't know what to tell you.


Tell him California isn't getting any rain or snow this winter, guess we'll just have to move on to the spring tornado season.
Quoting 250. Astrometeor:



Tell him California isn't getting any rain or snow this winter, guess we'll just have to move on to the spring tornado season.


That won't work either. Scientists have created a teleportation ray that will move all tornadoes from Earth to Jupiter (and I do not mean the one in Florida.)
Quoting 245. Hurricanes101:



We will pass 10 easily. If you really believe we will only get 5 named storms for the rest of the season, then maybe you should create a winter blog on your own and we can drop in every once in awhile to say hi.


hi
253. Tcwx2
Hey Pat. Do you think that line of storms to the northeast of Panama City will make it inland, say South Alabama?
Quoting 228. Patrap:





Quoting 243. Naga5000:



Paper itself, here, is actually about model resolution needed to look at regional precipitations changes. Horrible misrepresentation by Knappenberger and Maue.

" It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities and seasonal timing. In response to 2 x CO2 concentrations, all models show a mean intensification of precipitation rates during extreme events of approximately 3-4% K^ -1. However, projected regional patterns of changes in extremes are dependent on model resolution. For example, the highest-resolution models show increased precipitation rates during extreme events in the hurricane season in the CONUS southeast, this increase is not found in the low-resolution model. These results emphasize that, for the study of extreme precipitation there is a minimum model resolution that is needed to capture the weather phenomena generating the extremes. Finally, the observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record."

Bolded part was left out of original statement. Kinda changes the entire context.
Thank you. I can only access the abstract, but that is enough...
" The atmospheric resolution was increased from 2 degree x 2 degree grid cells (typical resolution in the CMIP5 archive) to 0.25 degree x 0..25 degree (tropical cyclone-permitting). Analysis has been confined to the contiguous United States (CONUS). It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities and seasonal timing."
LOL....Better spatial resolution leads to better models? Who knew?
Cherry-picking: "...tropical cyclone permitting......confined to the CONUS...".
Preferable to read the entire paper, but definitely not a promising start...
Quoting 253. Tcwx2:

Hey Pat. Do you think that line of storms to the northeast of Panama City will make it inland, say South Alabama?


Hard to say but keep a close eye on the storms rotating inland.

ITCZ flat lined and well below 10N Mid-August...


Quoting 207. SLU:



Sounds like 2013 all over again. One storm in August would be a real surprise given the TCHP all over and the lack of an El Nino.

we are 5-2-0 for the season still ahead of climatology so don't call off this season just yet and we have already equaled the number of hurricanes from 2013.
259. Tcwx2
Cool, it'd be a treat to get night-time storms for once. Maybe if it's heavy enough it will wake me up. Also, I just checked, remarkably, there is no lightning with those storms!
Quoting 255. Patrap:



Hard to say but keep a close eye on the storms rotating inland.


Quoting 258. Patrap:






mere miles separate this one, it really wants to, looks like it. Center reform is the only hope.
Summer Olympics or winter Olympics?
Latest T Waves aren't even joined with the ITCZ
Quoting 243. Naga5000:



Paper itself, here, is actually about model resolution needed to look at regional precipitations changes. Horrible misrepresentation by Knappenberger and Maue.

" It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities and seasonal timing. In response to 2×CO2 concentrations, all models show a mean intensification of precipitation rates during extreme events of approximately 3-4% K−1. However, projected regional patterns of changes in extremes are dependent on model resolution. For example, the highest-resolution models show increased precipitation rates during extreme events in the hurricane season in the CONUS southeast, this increase is not found in the low-resolution model. These results emphasize that, for the study of extreme precipitation there is a minimum model resolution that is needed to capture the weather phenomena generating the extremes. Finally, the observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record."

Bolded part was left out of original statement. Kinda changes the entire context.
I also see your direct point, typical abuse of hypothesis testing:
manipulation of confidence interval to attempt to push significant results back into the "noise".
I think a good portion the blog just vanished.
Quoting 281. Climate175:

I think a good portion the blog just vanished.
There was a little squabble. It got a little touchy!
Every year is different people need to chill!! No big deal if we don't get any more storms in August ! September could be on fire or not it's not up to us! The climate may be changing who knows we will have to wait and see but that takes patience and there is very little of that on this blog!
Quoting 254. guygee:

Thank you. I can only access the abstract, but that is enough...
" The atmospheric resolution was increased from 2 degree x 2 degree grid cells (typical resolution in the CMIP5 archive) to 0.25 degree x 0..25 degree (tropical cyclone-permitting). Analysis has been confined to the contiguous United States (CONUS). It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities and seasonal timing."
LOL....Better spatial resolution leads to better models? Who knew?
Cherry-picking: "...tropical cyclone permitting......confined to the CONUS...".
Preferable to read the entire paper, but definitely not a promising start...
This comment makes no sense to me. The tweet is pointing out some newly published research. From what I saw at the abstract, Neither Dr Maue nor the tweet-er, Mr? Ms?Dr? Knappenberger whose tweet Dr Maue retweeted were among the eight to a dozen (I lost count) authors of that research paper.

And Naga, only a certain number of characters are allowed on a Twitter tweet, as you probably know. The Knappenberger person even shortened the word available to "avail" in order to comply.

Neither one of you is making sense right now. You're criticizing two people who had nothing to do with the research. Is it actually the research outcome you don't like because it does not fit your mindset? Not to mention, best read the paper. Dang.

Quote containing link to abstract added
Quoting 243. Naga5000:



Paper itself, here, is actually about model resolution needed to look at regional precipitations changes. Horrible misrepresentation by Knappenberger and Maue.

" It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities and seasonal timing. In response to 2%uFFFDCO2 concentrations, all models show a mean intensification of precipitation rates during extreme events of approximately 3-4% K%u22121. However, projected regional patterns of changes in extremes are dependent on model resolution. For example, the highest-resolution models show increased precipitation rates during extreme events in the hurricane season in the CONUS southeast, this increase is not found in the low-resolution model. These results emphasize that, for the study of extreme precipitation there is a minimum model resolution that is needed to capture the weather phenomena generating the extremes. Finally, the observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record."

Bolded part was left out of original statement. Kinda changes the entire context.

Added also: Natural variability is intrinsic to any look at extreme weather. Extreme anything, as far as that goes.
285. IDTH
Quoting 208. Climate175:

If Joaquin and Gonzalo had just become a bit more stronger, we would of already ended that streak.

Joaquin had a CAT 5 winds reported with it, I was curious why it never got upgraded.
Quoting 285. IDTH:


Joaquin had a CAT 5 winds reported with it, I was curious why it never got upgraded.

Recon reported flight-level winds of 144kt and surface winds of 138kt. The latter supports a Category 5 hurricane, but the former only supported ~130kt winds at the surface. The NHC blended to give Joaquin a peak of 135kt, which I think is the best call.
Is the NHC really looking for an uptick in TC activity after August 25th?
If the NHC is going back to look at past storms they need to look at Ivan I still think it was a cat 4 at landfall!! Just because all wind measuring had been blown away does not mean it was not a cat 4 . Sail boat in Wolf Bay reported 144mph winds and that is a cat 4!!
Quoting 234. 999Ai2016:

Right...
- Heavy Downpours Increasing - nca2014.globalchange.gov
- Record-breaking heavy rainfall events increased under global warming - pik-potsdam.de
- Are Extreme Events, Like Heat Waves, Droughts or Floods, Expected to Change as the Earth's Climate Changes? IPCC
Yes; the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth's climate changes, and these changes could occur even with relatively small mean climate changes. Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed, for example, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (see FAQ 3.3)
- Observed record-breaking daily rainfall events around the world. From Lehmann et al., Climatic Change 2015 :

So maybe this guy has another definition of climate change under which his proposition is a valid one, but let me doubt it. www.skepticalscience.com
Ditto my comment to guygee and Naga.
Natural variability "in part"? Causation of extreme weather events is not concrete. Not yet. I, for one, am keeping an open mind.
Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective (Nov 2015)
Web address for full report provided at end of this linked summary
Why is the NHC going back and changing all these storms now it's not like they can go back in time. Just like everything every one wants to rewrite history.
Quoting 290. gulfbreeze:

Why is the NHC going back and changing all these storms now it's not like they can go back in time. Just like everything every one wants to rewrite history.


They're going back and correcting mistakes using new data, new methodology, and new understanding of hurricanes. A lot of the hurricanes who have seen upgrades/downgrades are at a time period in which we were just beginning to get a grasp on the storms. It's better to set the record straight than to leave it unfixed and inaccurate.
Quoting 290. gulfbreeze:

Why is the NHC going back and changing all these storms now it's not like they can go back in time. Just like everything every one wants to rewrite history.

I know, how dare the NHC strive to have the most accurate database.
Hmm. 17 mia. Missed something?

Quoting 281. Climate175:

I think a good portion the blog just vanished.
LOL,
Now lets go and rewrite our history books to correct them also. What children are being taught in schools is mostly fantasy.
Crap, it's raining again. The ditches were starting to dry out. Oh well, nothing I can do?

Quoting 291. Astrometeor:



They're going back and correcting mistakes using new data, new methodology, and new understanding of hurricanes. A lot of the hurricanes who have seen upgrades/downgrades are at a time period in which we were just beginning to get a grasp on the storms. It's better to set the record straight than to leave it unfixed and inaccurate.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
DEPRESSION
5:30 AM IST August 10 2016
============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, the depression over coastal areas of West Bengal & neighborhood has moved nearly northwards and now lays centered over southern Bangladesh & adjoining West Bengal with its center close to 22.8N 88.8E, about 60 km east of Kolkata and 50 km southwest of Jessore (Bangladesh).

The system is likely to move nearly northwards during next 24 hours.

Ocean heat content is high in the carribean.

Not only is the water hot but it is deep.
Quoting 292. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know, how dare the NHC strive to have the most accurate database.

The NHC also didn't find this tropical cyclone (maybe a front connected but seriously this looks so much like one)



This deserves to be named Earl (it had 39-40 mph winds for a bit). Also conditions were borderline (26C SST's, shear low)
(SORRY, NOW IT'S WORKING, PLEASE REMOVE THIS COMMENT.)
Quoting 292. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know, how dare the NHC strive to have the most accurate database.

I don't see my post uploaded for some reason so i'm gonna make it again (in a different form but still means the same), sorry if it processes later and i made 2 posts.
The NHC also missed this:

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
DEEP DEPRESSION
8:30 AM IST August 10 2016
==========================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over southern Bangladesh & adjoining West Bengal moved northeastwards and intensified into a deep depression and now lays centered over southern Bangladesh & neighborhood with its center close to 23.0N 89.4E, about 100 km east­ northeast of Kolkata, 30 km southeast of Jessore (Bangladesh) and 130 Km southwest of Dhaka (Bangladesh).

The system is likely to move slowly north­ northeastwards during next 24 hours. Subsequently, it is likely to weaken gradually and move northwestwards.
Good morning abroad with the cold-cored Canadian "hudsoncane" :-)




Click for the loop.

Windmap.



Source.
Stumbled by chance over this news from a tornado in Canada. Not sure whether this has been reported in here.

Cleanup Continues In Waywayseecappo
Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada / 680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader
Christian Aumell, Posted: August 09, 2016 04:48 pm, | Last Updated: August 09, 2016 07:04 pm
WAYWAYSEECAPPO - Crews are working to survey the damage after Monday's tornadoes in Western Manitoba. The worst of it was on Waywayseecappo First Nation, where a home was levelled and others damaged. ...

Three confirmed tornadoes in Westman on Monday


Tornado Overturns Bus in Waywayseecappo Manitoba
09.08.2016: August 8th 2016 this footage shows a bus being overturned no one was hurt and the dog was put inside but it ran out on its own, and the dog is ok.


08.08.2016: Tornado in Waywayseecappo Manitoba
Tornado that lasted 15 minutes, came down and went back up 4 times. Damaged houses but no one was hurt.
there you go, folks. you can have this rain. we're pretty much done with it here in the Lower Suwannee area. 20" was about all that we needed. have fun!
Looks like the Gulf low has kicked into gear nicely this morning.

Quoting 303. barbamz:

Stumbled by chance over this news from a tornado in Canada. Not sure whether this has been reported in here.

Cleanup Continues In Waywayseecappo
Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada / 680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader
Christian Aumell, Posted: August 09, 2016 04:48 pm, | Last Updated: August 09, 2016 07:04 pm
WAYWAYSEECAPPO - Crews are working to survey the damage after Monday's tornadoes in Western Manitoba. The worst of it was on Waywayseecappo First Nation, where a home was levelled and others damaged. ...

Three confirmed tornadoes in Westman on Monday


Tornado Overturns Bus in Waywayseecappo Manitoba
09.08.2016: August 8th 2016 this footage shows a bus being overturned no one was hurt and the dog was put inside but it ran out on its own, and the dog is ok.


08.08.2016: Tornado in Waywayseecappo Manitoba
Tornado that lasted 15 minutes, came down and went back up 4 times. Damaged houses but no one was hurt.



Look at how the tornado didn't even move a 100 lb flat trailer, and just moved several boxes around in a circle. One then I noticed is the seat on the John Deere flip up as the storm moved passed the barn.
First La Palma, now Madeira: no luck for the islands in the Atlantic this year:

Three dead as wildfires sweep across Madeira
More than 300 treated for smoke inhalation and minor burns after high winds fuel blazes on Portuguese island
Wednesday 10 August 2016 10.26 BST
At least three people have been killed and about 1,000 evacuated as wildfires sweep the Portuguese island of Madeira and threaten the capital, Funchal.
The head of Madeira’s regional government, Miguel Albuquerque, said the three elderly victims had died in two houses in the early hours of Wednesday. Another person was reported missing. Albuquerque said more than 300 people had to be treated for smoke inhalation and minor burns.
The blaze, fuelled by hot weather and strong winds, led to the evacuation of about 1,000 local people and tourists in the archipelago off north-western Africa. About 30 houses and a five-star hotel have been devoured by the fire. ...


good morning. i dont like re-writing hurricane history books. at least it will give college students something interesting to do. what about tropical depressions? is that a thing from the past? seems as if we a skipping that classification alot .
Quoting 284. Barefootontherocks:

This comment makes no sense to me. The tweet is pointing out some newly published research. From what I saw at the abstract, Neither Dr Maue nor the tweet-er, Mr? Ms?Dr? Knappenberger whose tweet Dr Maue retweeted were among the eight to a dozen (I lost count) authors of that research paper.

And Naga, only a certain number of characters are allowed on a Twitter tweet, as you probably know. The Knappenberger person even shortened the word available to "avail" in order to comply.

Neither one of you is making sense right now. You're criticizing two people who had nothing to do with the research. Is it actually the research outcome you don't like because it does not fit your mindset? Not to mention, best read the paper. Dang.

Quote containing link to abstract added

Added also: Natural variability is intrinsic to any look at extreme weather. Extreme anything, as far as that goes.


Focusing on the absence of statistical significance in narrow, messy data is an abuse of attribution. That's not how attribution works, and is a purposeful misrepresentation of attribution. Lack of significance in the regional record (remember the U.S. itself is only about 2% of the planet), is both understood and expected. Significance comes from the large aggregate first before the small regional. Regardless, lack of significance is not an inability to attribute. I suggest a primer on the subject before you dive in, Barefoot. You're over your head here.
Quoting 305. hurcoloid:

Looks like the Gulf low has kicked into gear nicely this morning.




I noticed that when I looked at the radar a bit ago. Blobish. I've got an outside video shoot in Pensacola at 9AM; hoping for a 30 minute window of no rain.


so pretty!
Quoting 299. NunoLava1998:


The NHC also didn't find this tropical cyclone (maybe a front connected but seriously this looks so much like one)



This deserves to be named Earl (it had 39-40 mph winds for a bit). Also conditions were borderline (26C SST's, shear low)
(SORRY, NOW IT'S WORKING, PLEASE REMOVE THIS COMMENT.)

we all ready had Earl
Morning everyone, this is sure a pesky low....thankfully the main rain is off the coast but we know we are going to get something here in Orange Bch. Any idea when the low is supposed to go north? or is just going to head west till a front comes?? keep up the great work everyone.


hoping this happens at least once over the next 3 days, as toronto settles in to its latest and hottest heat wave! taken from my back porch last heat wave.
Quoting 307. barbamz:

First La Palma, now Madeira: no luck for the islands in the Atlantic this year:

Three dead as wildfires sweep across Madeira
More than 300 treated for smoke inhalation and minor burns after high winds fuel blazes on Portuguese island
Wednesday 10 August 2016 10.26 BST
At least three people have been killed and about 1,000 evacuated as wildfires sweep the Portuguese island of Madeira and threaten the capital, Funchal.
The head of Madeira%u2019s regional government, Miguel Albuquerque, said the three elderly victims had died in two houses in the early hours of Wednesday. Another person was reported missing. Albuquerque said more than 300 people had to be treated for smoke inhalation and minor burns.
The blaze, fuelled by hot weather and strong winds, led to the evacuation of about 1,000 local people and tourists in the archipelago off north-western Africa. About 30 houses and a five-star hotel have been devoured by the fire. ...




Added to the fires in Maderia there are also over 300 wildfires burning in Mainland Portugal right now with many of them out of control, Several wildfires are buring in Northern Spain and on the boarder with Portugal.
Quoting 313. Nolehead:

Morning everyone, this is sure a pesky low....thankfully the main rain is off the coast but we know we are going to get something here in Orange Bch. Any idea when the low is supposed to go north? or is just going to head west till a front comes?? keep up the great work everyone.


The low is expected to start moving north today. I will post the surface maps.
12Z Friday the low has moved quite a bit to the north. Unfortunately there will be a lot of lingering rain across the middle Gulf Coast. The weather should improve for most of Florida.
Sun is out this morning across S.W. Florida. It's been a while since we've seen the sun here.
This is an unusual thing, a high preasure thats seems to be acting like a low preasure over the Bay of Biscay etc. UK in the fireing line as usual.

Link

4 Fatalities now in the Madeira Fires.
06Z...From this...



to this...

Saturday the low is gone and by Sunday's surface map the trough is gone. Maybe, just maybe it will stop raining across the Gulf Coast by this weekend.
Ooph



Quoting 288. gulfbreeze:

If the NHC is going back to look at past storms they need to look at Ivan I still think it was a cat 4 at landfall!! Just because all wind measuring had been blown away does not mean it was not a cat 4 . Sail boat in Wolf Bay reported 144mph winds and that is a cat 4!!
Ivan was really bad! That wind measurement on a sailboat was not an official weather reporting station, and was a CAT4 gust, and not sustained for over 1 minute. However, it is interesting to note that some of Ivan's strongest winds were missed by the wind gauges. Ivan's strongest sustained winds came ashore near the AL-FL state line.
Yesterday afternoon after 4PM had a shower over my area with temps at 100 degrees earlier. Only received 0.06" just enough to wet everything down, sun came out dewpoint spiked to 82F! making the heat index of 118F! Temp was down to 94F...a 24 degree difference between actual air temp and heat index.

Which is why my area is under an "extreme" heat advisory which is unusual by the NWS. Yesterday local news and NWS was reporting 115-116 heat indexes at several stations closer to the coast.
Quoting 285. IDTH:


Joaquin had a CAT 5 winds reported with it, I was curious why it never got upgraded.


Really now? Where did you find that out?
Quoting 313. Nolehead:


Thanks,
Sfloridacat5

00z Euro with a strong African Wave exiting the coast in 10 days, this the second run showing this, and we need more consistency.
Quoting 324. Stormwatch247:

Ivan was really bad! That wind measurement on a sailboat was not an official weather reporting station, and was a CAT4 gust, and not sustained for over 1 minute. However, it is interesting to note that some of Ivan's strongest winds were missed by the wind gauges. Ivan's strongest sustained winds came ashore near the AL-FL state line.


Ivan's storm surge hit Perdido Key barrier island like it was nothing, crossed the ICW and blew my cousins house away along with many others in Grande Lagoon. I've lived here all my life and have never been through nor seen such destruction. By what I heard, landfall was just west of me, Sawgrass Point (?). Sure felt like a CAT 4 to me...
This was a huge cloud that sat over the lake on last night in New Orleans near my house. I took this pic in the Walmart parking lot. Talking about scary this was really terrifying.
Quoting 330. bigwes6844:

This was a huge cloud that sat over the lake on last night in New Orleans near my house. I took this pic in the Walmart parking lot. Talking about scary this was really terrifying.

Dang!
Quoting 331. Climate175:

Dang!

Dude I was thinking this was a tornado at first. But it was some low level hanging clouds.
Forecast for Houston area has rain chances going up pretty high starting this Saturday and going through following weekend WC and WU both show pretty much 60% or higher rain chances for all next week. Hope it pans out and can get some decent rains.....gotten dry.
Quoting 303. barbamz:

Stumbled by chance over this news from a tornado in Canada. Not sure whether this has been reported in here.

Cleanup Continues In Waywayseecappo
Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada / 680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader
Christian Aumell, Posted: August 09, 2016 04:48 pm, | Last Updated: August 09, 2016 07:04 pm
WAYWAYSEECAPPO - Crews are working to survey the damage after Monday's tornadoes in Western Manitoba. The worst of it was on Waywayseecappo First Nation, where a home was levelled and others damaged. ...

Three confirmed tornadoes in Westman on Monday


Tornado Overturns Bus in Waywayseecappo Manitoba
09.08.2016: August 8th 2016 this footage shows a bus being overturned no one was hurt and the dog was put inside but it ran out on its own, and the dog is ok.


08.08.2016: Tornado in Waywayseecappo Manitoba
Tornado that lasted 15 minutes, came down and went back up 4 times. Damaged houses but no one was hurt.



The dog in the first video, I got so upset for a split second.
Quoting 330. bigwes6844:

This was a huge cloud that sat over the lake on last night in New Orleans near my house. I took this pic in the Walmart parking lot. Talking about scary this was really terrifying.


Very cool picture! I will see Climate175's "Dang" and raise it. This picture gets a "Double Dang" from me.
I see that 94 E has appeared on the scene.
Over in Spain we just had about 4 inches of rain in the Valencia area in a few hours.
No good for the fires over on the west coast of Iberia as the rain is moving east.
Madness in Portugal with fires all over the place.

Last week 8% of the land area of the Spanish Canary Islands of La Palma burnt down in wildfires. The place looks devastated!
Quoting 319. Sfloridacat5:

Sun is out this morning across S.W. Florida. It's been a while since we've seen the sun here.


Indeed. We picked up around 4.5" here in Englewood, with the majority falling Monday morning. Now, I suppose, it'll be quite hot and humid. Low chance of precip today, but 50-60% most of the next ten days, albeit in the afternoon. I will say this is the first summer in a few years we've had a typical summer pattern in place and not endless troughiness bringing rain any time of the day. Rather nice.
gulfbeachgal
1:47 PM GMT on August 10, 2016
1 +
Quoting 324. Stormwatch247:

Ivan was really bad! That wind measurement on a sailboat was not an official weather reporting station, and was a CAT4 gust, and not sustained for over 1 minute. However, it is interesting to note that some of Ivan's strongest winds were missed by the wind gauges. Ivan's strongest sustained winds came ashore near the AL-FL state line.


Ivan's storm surge hit Perdido Key barrier island like it was nothing, crossed the ICW and blew my cousins house away along with many others in Grande Lagoon. I've lived here all my life and have never been through nor seen such destruction. By what I heard, landfall was just west of me, Sawgrass Point (?). Sure felt like a CAT 4 to me...

yes gulfbeachgal, over here in Elberta which is just north of Orange Bch just across the intercoastal IVAN was a beast!! Worked in P'cola and couldn't get to work for a few days because lillian bridge was out and hwy 90 was underwater.....the eye went through marimar beach between orange and gulf shores.....still today you can see the Ivan lean on trees. yes Grande got blown away. my uncle was a deputy back then and he told me stories of people that passed away in trees foundations completely gone...worked for Lamar Advertising at teh time and blew away every sign in town especially the 2 monsters that were on each side of the innerarity point bridge.....was not fun between 2-4 am!!!


Link
The data recorder from El Faro has been retrieved.
Little MJO coming across the gulf
Quoting 323. RitaEvac:

Ooph











Let me see if I have this straight this morning. Radar indicates a possible LLC has formed near 29.4N, south of Mobile Bay. Satellite loops indicate the system has become better organized over night, and it has developed a CDO, and banding features to the south east and west of the circulation center. Where are the TC advisories, LOL???

All kidding aside, we have seen similar set up like this before, in the same area. The geography also may assist in development. These types of developing areas will be heavily weighted to the south, east and west, due to the close proximity to the coast.

Do not be surprised if something just pops into a TC.
Only a matter of time before the flick.
Looks like the low level circulation is approaching the Crow's Foot heading west. We need the clouds and rain in Houston so come on this way.
Quoting 329. gulfbeachgal:


Ivan's storm surge hit Perdido Key barrier island like it was nothing, crossed the ICW and blew my cousins house away along with many others in Grande Lagoon. I've lived here all my life and have never been through nor seen such destruction. By what I heard, landfall was just west of me, Sawgrass Point (?). Sure felt like a CAT 4 to me...


Ivan blew over the barrier Island as far East as Navarre, FL where it sent 41" of muddy water through a friends house that was at least a 1/4 mile from the Sound.
GFS has the tropical wave that is forecast to come off sometime between Aug 18th and 20th too, has it weak until it reaches the Lesser Antilles.



Buoy south of Mobile Bay, located underneath the concentration of convection... Barometer is still on the high side.
Don't give up your day job .
The disturbance offshore along the northern GOM being watched.
I like how the recent showers popping up on Galveston radar are going EAST!
Come on now ...share some of that rain!
Watching the northern GOM for the past few days, remembering Aug. 1988, Tropical Storm "Beryl" formed along the S.E. Louisiana coast from a meandering low pressure system.
its coming, the front is pushing it. its gonna rain all next week allegedly.
Quoting 354. justmehouston:

I like how the recent showers popping up on Galveston radar are going EAST!
Come on now ...share some of that rain!
Atlantic has had only one name storm form since 6/20 fewest since 2009 Phil Klotzbach.
To my fellow Houston weather people's keep them fingers crossed looks like this dry pattern is coming to an end soon....rain chances looking good from late weekend all through next week...will be happy to bust this 100 degree weather. Hit 101 Yesterday!! 😎
Quoting 360. birdsrock2016:



Troll.
I checked Phil's twitter and he did say that.
Quoting 354. justmehouston:

I like how the recent showers popping up on Galveston radar are going EAST!
Come on now ...share some of that rain!
But the clouds are moving west, that should help.
The skies just opened up over Fort Walton Beach.
Quoting 361. kallenjrtx:

To my fellow Houston weather people's keep them fingers crossed looks like this dry pattern is coming to an end soon....rain chances looking good from late weekend all through next week...will be happy to bust this 100 degree weather. Hit 101 Yesterday!! 😎


104 in Willbrow area !!!
We Floridians are probably going to escape another season this year.
Image of quiescence!!! As I wrote last week, don't expect much for the next few weeks. But when activity does increase, I think we will not be disappointed. As I remember, I never even looked at the tropics much until late August. So relax and exchange recipes and insults for the next two weeks.




Quoting 362. washingtonian115:

I checked Phil's twitter and he did say that.


Sure, but help4u's postings the last, oh, month has been "this season is a dud, it's always a dud, and will always be a dud". Trying to get a rise out of bloggers is trolling.
Quoting 368. Grothar:

Image of quiescence!!! As I wrote last week, don't expect much for the next few weeks. But when activity does increase, I think we will not be disappointed. As I remember, I never even looked at the tropics much until late August. So relax and exchange recipes and insults for the next two weeks.







So instead of identifying 'splats' on the map- we 'splat' each other instead. OK.
Quoting 367. weatherman994:

We Floridians are probably going to escape another season this year.

Wow already that confident? Most FL strikes happen in Aug-Oct just saying lol
Quoting 364. hurcoloid:

The skies just opened up over Fort Walton Beach.

Same here in Niceville
Hostile conditions in the Atlantic!
Quoting 368. Grothar:

Image of quiescence!!! As I wrote last week, don't expect much for the next few weeks. But when activity does increase, I think we will not be disappointed. As I remember, I never even looked at the tropics much until late August. So relax and exchange recipes and insults for the next two weeks.






Yea Gro Im thinking towards the end of August and all of September mite be big time active!
The grey one eyed ghost of surge,wind and rain. It only brings destruction,death,misery and woe.

I would trade the remaining years of this life for a single day and night to unsee the things a Major Hurricane showed me in 2005.


Never root for calamity, it by itself knows no borders, only men's minds and maps do.


Quoting 359. help4u:

Atlantic has had only one name storm form since 6/20 fewest since 2009 Phil Klotzbach.
Interesting statistic, despite July being one of the quieter months in terms of climatology, the signs did point to it being more active and we only managed to get Earl towards the end of the month. The SAL and wind shear has not been as bad as the past few seasons. However, the 700 mb. layer in the MDR has been dry, which would delimit the vertical growth of thunderstorms, this is probably why you are seeing vigorous waves come off the coast of Africa and their thunderstorm activity disintigrate. Years like 2009 and 1992 saw stronger ridging over the Atlantic, with above average pressures. Yet, those two seasons saw contrasting results. The dangerous part is if the current orientation of the ridge persists through September, it could steer storms on a further westward track.
The forecast for epic rain in Mobile has turned into an epic fail so far.
The NWS in New Orleans has extended the flash food watch until noon Saturday.
#Eric Blake -Looks like a late start to the busy part of #hurricane season- super inactive Atlantic pattern for next 1-2 weeks

Upper Jefferson Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsAreal Flood WatchIssued: 10:40 AM CDT Aug. 10, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flood Watch now in effect from 7 PM CDT this evening through
Saturday morning...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi... including
the following areas... in southeast Louisiana... lower
Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St.
Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans... St. Charles... St.
Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper
Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne. In
Mississippi... Hancock... Harrison and Jackson.

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning

* abundant tropical moisture pooled around a weak surface low
pressure system over the near coastal waters will become
increasingly favorable for heavy rains and the potential of
flooding in the central Gulf Coast region. Storm total rainfall
accumulations onsetting this afternoon and continuing
periodically through Saturday morning could range between 5 and
8 inches with some locally higher amounts close to 10
inches... particularly near the Mississippi coast and into the
Metro New Orleans area.

* Impacts include ponding of waters in low lying and poorly
drained areas... elevated levels on area rivers and streams. If
heavy rains persist over locations for any significant
duration... then flash flooding may result.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. The Flood Watch may be expanded in areal
extent and time as this event unfolds through the weekend.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.



24/rr


Quoting 375. Patrap:

The grey one eyed ghost of surge,wind and rain. It only brings destruction,death,misery and woe.

I would trade the remaining years of this life for a single day and night to unsee the things a Major Hurricane showed me in 2005.


Never root for calamity, it by itself knows no borders, only men's minds and maps do.





Totally agree - be careful what you wish for. Having the hurricane experience and dealing with its aftermath is not something I would wish on ANYone.
If the blog existed in the 80s.
More Wet Weather coming in the the middle of next week.
Quoting 377. scott39:

The forecast for epic rain in Mobile has turned into an epic fail so far.


I live on Perdido Bay. We've had .33" of rain since 0700 this morning. Far cry from the 6 - 8" that was being forecasted...but there's tomorrow to get thru - I heard that's when the majority of rain is supposed to be in my area...
Is that a dewpoint of 81-83 degrees F with a temp of 88F?!
Is that a dewpoint of 81-83 degrees F with a temp of 88F at Galveston TX?!
Nola radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile.


Quoting 326. 62901IL:



Really now? Where did you find that out?
Speculation at best.... Joaquin was strong cat 4, but no cat 5 winds were measured. Or, if you want to be pedantic, none were reported.
Quoting 375. Patrap:

The grey one eyed ghost of surge,wind and rain. It only brings destruction,death,misery and woe.

I would trade the remaining years of this life for a single day and night to unsee the things a Major Hurricane showed me in 2005.


Never root for calamity, it by itself knows no borders, only men's minds and maps do.



May never see that again tornados and tropical weather is becoming thing of the past.Lowest levels in years.
Quoting 388. weatherbro:

Is that a dewpoint of 81-83 degrees F with a temp of 88F at Galveston TX?!

Yep. It's oppressive in SETX right now.
Any questions on where the Dry Tortugas are??

Quoting 359. help4u:

Atlantic has had only one name storm form since 6/20 fewest since 2009 Phil Klotzbach.
He had to stop at 2009 because in 2008 there were no storms.... lol ... Isn't that the year we saw 7 or 8 NS in September alone?

:-)
Quoting 386. gulfbeachgal:


I live on Perdido Bay. We've had .33" of rain since 0700 this morning. Far cry from the 6 - 8" that was being forecasted...but there's tomorrow to get thru - I heard that's when the majority of rain is supposed to be in my area...


Yeah the rain amounts in the FL Panhandle haven't been near as much as they had forecasted. Through this morning before the rains from today I had a whole .5" of rain since Sunday afternoon. Maybe today and tomorrow will be a different story, we'll see.
Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1032 am CDT Wednesday Aug 10 2016

Update...
about to release a new updated package to cover a few updated
items.

1) updated the Flood Watch to now include Tangipahoa Parish and
Pearl River co. MS and to extend in time out to 12z Sat.

2) lowered Max temps for today in deference to cloud cover and
eventual convection, and adjusted hourly temps accordingly.

3) dropped short-term pops to 10% over land areas and categorical
where rain is falling over coastal waters.

4) expanded Small Craft Advisory to include near coastal waters east of the MS
river and outer coastal waters in the zone just west of the MS
river.

5) updated graphics and products to be consistent in type of watch
(flood vs flash flood).

Surface analysis shows 1013 mb low just south of MS coast
below Pascagoula Bay with only a 2 mb gradient in a broad area.
The rainfall feeder band orientation is responding to an occluded
upper low slowly filling over southeast Alabama. If this feature does
collapse, then rainfall pattern will likely focus closer to the
surface reflection feature farther west. Most noticable this
morning is northerly flow over land areas indicative of better
circulation than models letting on, thereby delaying rainfall
onset, as anticipated at initial watch issuance yesterday. The
Flood Watch update at this time is based on coordination with
lmrfc river contingencies with anticipated rainfall amounts over
the area river basins. There is some flood potential on the
Tangipahoa river at Robert and the hobolochitto river system in
Pearl River co if the rainfall materializes at predicted. As a
result, these two areas will be included in this update. Also,
opted to add another 24 hours to the watch to take into Saturday
morning. We will continue to evaluate for expansion farther west,
but would like to see a more established rainfall pattern
onsetting farther east before including areas west. 24/rr

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 824 am CDT Wednesday Aug 10 2016/

.Sounding discussion...

Record high atmospheric moisture persists with the precipitable
water at 2.49 inches and has remained above 2.4 inches the last
24 hours. With all the moisture and a low level inversion, some
areas of fog were able to form this morning. Winds throughout the
lower half of the atmosphere remain light and this environment
overall would support waterspouts. The convective temperature
remains in the upper 80s and with instability around 2000 j/kg,
thunderstorms will initiate around midday today over land areas and
coverage should be widespread across the area, especially near
coastal locations.

12z balloon info: a routine flight ascending 113 minutes and
bursting near the western shore of Lake Maurepas 46 miles
downrange from the office.

Ansorge

Previous discussion... /issued 411 am CDT Wednesday Aug 10 2016/

Discussion...
surface and mid level troughs located along the northeast Gulf
Coast region are embedded within broad upper level high pressure.
This will be the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the local forecast area. Radar currently shows quiet
conditions over sela and south MS while it is much more active
south of la and Alabama/Florida panhandles in the open Gulf waters. This
trend will likely persist through the early morning hours although
scattered storms will still be possible inland. Model consensus
for afternoon convection development today continues to be fairly
good as well as agreement with medium range models. There will
likely still be a coastal bias to spatial coverage and thus pops
have been adjusted accordingly.

Local upper air sounding precip water values continue to be at or
above record for this time of year. Model soundings suggest that
these current numbers will even go up Wed and Thu. As seen with a
few storms yesterday, one of the results of having deep tropical
moisture in place is that any storms of moderate intensity will
very efficient rain producers and could result in localized
flooding.

Moving into Thursday and Friday, models remain consistent in
indicating that the mid level low will move overhead. This will
continue to enhance convective development and likely keep the
nighttime more active than typical for this time of year. In
addition, the concern for more widespread heavy rainfall shifting
inland increases. Could be looking at 2-4" late Wednesday night
through Thursday and then similar amounts for the Thursday night
through Friday time frame. For now keeping the Flood Watch along
coastal parishes/counties but if models continue to indicate
further inland shift of precip, will likely need to include more
of the County Warning Area in the watch.

An upper trough moving eastward across the midsection of the country
from Saturday through Monday will aide in keeping rain chances on
the higher side for the area. However, at this time it appears qpf
amounts will be on the downward trend.

Meffer
I've just completed a new blog entry examining the current active and chaotic period in the Tropical Western Pacific. Feel free to check it out!

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 10, 2016

Quoting 371. sporteguy03:


Wow already that confident? Most FL strikes happen in Aug-Oct just saying lol
Wishful thinking ...
Quoting 392. help4u:

May never see that again tornados and tropical weather is becoming thing of the past.Lowest levels in years.


My stars! The things people tell themselves...
Hi, blog :-). There are ongoing wildfires in my country also (France) close to the Med. sea. Drought and strong winds are complicating the situation, mandatory evacuations are underway in campings and several cities' neighborhoods located near Marseille, the second most populated French city.
Wildfires rage near Marseille, forcing evacuations & flight diversions (PHOTOS) (link fixed now).
Marseille, today.
Test post.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS are predicting a strong tropical wave to come off the African coast on the 19 th of August and travel west towards the lesser antilles about the 24th. This could the precursor of what to expect from the 20th of this montn through september and middle of october.
Quoting 375. Patrap:

The grey one eyed ghost of surge,wind and rain. It only brings destruction,death,misery and woe.

I would trade the remaining years of this life for a single day and night to unsee the things a Major Hurricane showed me in 2005.


Never root for calamity, it by itself knows no borders, only men's minds and maps do.





Only someone who has experienced the terror of the passage and the suffering in the aftermath of a Major Hurricane can understand your thoughts.

I'm sure most of us on here are happy your wish can't be granted as we would sorely miss your posts.
been watching pouch 16 ever since climate posted it was a pouch. this afternoon 55w mdr. it maybe a low amplitude but there was not even a mention on the 2pm nhc. i do see an inverted V dont we?
Like scoring 1 run in the bottom of the first and calling it game over.

Quoting 371. sporteguy03:


Wow already that confident? Most FL strikes happen in Aug-Oct just saying lol
been watching pouch 16 ever since climate posted it was a pouch. this afternoon 55w mdr could there be hope? . it maybe a low amplitude but there was not even a mention on the 2pm nhc.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS are predicting a strong tropical wave to come off the African coast on the 19 th of August and travel west towards the lesser antilles about the 24th. This could the precursor of what to expect from the 20th of this montn through september and middle of october.
Quoting 372. opal92nwf:

Same here in Niceville


Been raining on and off for most of the day here at Hurlburt.
Quoting 395. BahaHurican:

He had to stop at 2009 because in 2008 there were no storms.... lol ... Isn't that the year we saw 7 or 8 NS in September alone?

:-)


also what about 2015?
This is one crazy wind map for the Western Mediterranean into the Atlantic for the 11th of August.

Link
Quoting 393. 1900hurricane:


Yep. It's oppressive in SETX right now.


Over 95F right now, with HI of 111F
Thank goodness wind gusts are at a breezy 1 MPH!
One of the most humid days I can remember!

Cincinnati OH, 85 degrees with a 80 degree dew point.... ugh feels HORRIBLE out there!
Quoting 367. weatherman994:

We Floridians are probably going to escape another season this year.


no
no your not
there is a killer storm or 3 possible never rule anything out
Quoting 402. 999Ai2016:

Hi, blog :-). There are ongoing wildfires in my country (France) close to the Med. sea. Drought and strong winds are complicating the situation, mandatory evacuations are underway in campings and several cities' neighborhoods located close to Marseille, the second most populated French city.
Wildfires rage near Marseille, forcing evacuations & flight diversions (PHOTOS)


Thanks for that info.
See this link for winds right now blowing from the north over France into the Med. Incredible and if there is a small fire it will be a big one very quickly with these winds.
Howling gales right now at my place north of Gibraltar.

Link
Quoting 415. Cyclone2016:

One of the most humid days I can remember!

Cincinnati OH, 85 degrees with a 80 degree dew point.... ugh feels HORRIBLE out there!
we hit 104 here with heat index so far say 107 maybe by 4 pm
12z Euro sticks to it.
Quoting 400. Misanthroptimist:


My stars! The things people tell themselves...


It's cloudy today, might not ever see the Sun ever again.
Quoting 414. Patrap:




Down here below Houma was not fun just now. You would think I would know better and make sure my iPad was charged before we lost electricity. Oh well it was only out for an hour
Quoting 421. hydrus:




Mom is really upset, the NWS has t-storms plastered in as far as the eye can see in the forecast. The Perseid meteor shower is ongoing, and we won't be able to see it. Two nights ago it was clear for a spell and we spent 30 minutes outside. Saw a single meteor go by, but it wasn't a Perseid. Disappointing this year.
Quoting 422. Astrometeor:



It's cloudy today, might not ever see the Sun ever again.

Doesn't really matter. At the rate it's been cooling since the clouds rolled in, it will be absolute zero by early next week.

It's science, people!
426. Tcwx2
Make use of your ignore list!
Quoting 400. Misanthroptimist:


My stars! The things people tell themselves...
Quoting 418. PlazaRed:

Thanks for that info.
See this link for winds right now blowing from the north over France into the Med. Incredible and if there is a small fire it will be a big one very quickly with these winds.
Howling gales right now at my place north of Gibraltar.
Link
You're welcome. I followed your link, impressive wind pattern there. "Mistral" wind on steroids, and gales all around the Iberian Peninsula, wow. A worrying situation indeed. It seems like the wildfire season in southern Europe has just begun to ramp up, and what a bad start already (see Madeira I., Canary I. Spain, Portugal, Greece...). * I've fixed the link to RT's article in my previous comment : Wildfires rage near Marseille, forcing evacuations & flight diversions (PHOTOS) Edit : you can quite easily see the smoke from Portugal's wildfires on satellite loops from this afternoon/early evening.
Quoting 413. justmehouston:



Over 95F right now, with HI of 111F
Thank goodness wind gusts are at a breezy 1 MPH!

Things aren't any better down the coast.


Quoting 424. Astrometeor:



Mom is really upset, the NWS has t-storms plastered in as far as the eye can see in the forecast. The Perseid meteor shower is ongoing, and we won't be able to see it. Two nights ago it was clear for a spell and we spent 30 minutes outside. Saw a single meteor go by, but it wasn't a Perseid. Disappointing this year.
There is still a chance, so do not give up..We are concerned what the weather will be like when the solar eclipse occurres next year. We will chase it if we have too...:)
Quoting 421. hydrus:




GA has been enjoying days of clouds/light showers, but it's amazing how quickly we went from 7 day rain totals pushing 6"+ to the paltry amounts most areas have received. I'm currently at .15" from this system, and am not sure if last week's more significant insolation-driven rainfall or this week's decreased evaporation has had a bigger impact on the drought.

I'm quite certain that as soon as I leave the state for fall semester, tropical deluges will arise...
As a result of the wildfires over Madeira in the Azores, the government has asked the European Union for assistance to control them.
3 fire fighting planes sent from Spain and Italy so far.
Scenes of massive destruction on the Spanish evening news here.

Link
Euro on board. Season not a bust.
Strong Wave over West Africa by this time next week.
Quoting 432. PlazaRed:

As a result of the wildfires over Madeira in the Azores, the government has asked the European Union for assistance to control them.
Scenes of massive destruction on the Spanish evening news here.

Link


destruction is to become great
faster and faster
man made as always
Quoting 428. 1900hurricane:


Things aren't any better down the coast.



scorched with heat and fire been that way awhile now
Quoting 432. PlazaRed:

As a result of the wildfires over Madeira in the Azores, the government has asked the European Union for assistance to control them.
Scenes of massive destruction on the Spanish evening news here.

Link

Madeira is not a part of the Azores. It is a separate group of islands located several hundred miles southeast of the Azores, and to the southwest of mainland Portugal. The website rtp.pt has much information on the fires in Madeira as well as the rest of Portugal.
Wind shear has most of the GOM and Caribbean shut down for now.
Quoting 414. Patrap:




Closing in on us...
RIP Gil Clark :-(

Link
Mobile, radar
Echo Tops

The area near 8N 34 W looks very interesting. there i s cyclonic turning and is in an area of weak shear and will be in this low shear environment for the next few days. it is only an area of interest for the moment as it is near the equator.
Euro a few runs in a row now showing a strong wave quickly organizing into a tropical system off the coast of Africa in about 9-10 days, Euro has done a great job in identifying tropical formation potential this far out most of the year, Colin was one. I mentioned yesterday that our next named storm may come between the 17th-24th of August and will continue to watch the trends over the next week..



I'm not buying this forecast.
449. Ed22
Quoting 401. Patrap:


Maybe it develop, maybe it won't. Its a 50%/50% chance.
The EURO CV wave/storm is too far north. I want it further south!
Quoting 438. ACSeattle:


Madeira is not a part of the Azores. It is a separate group of islands located several hundred miles southeast of the Azores, and to the southwest of mainland Portugal. The website rtp.pt has much information on the fires in Madeira as well as the rest of Portugal.

Thank you for correcting me, I had become confused with the reports on the Spanish news. Fire fighting planes are being sent from the Azores to assist.

Here is another link to the fires.

Link
Quoting 420. Climate175:

12z Euro sticks to it.
Looks like 18-20 degrees north latitude ,going to need to dip south if it affects the US
Quoting 450. CaribBoy:

The EURO CV wave/storm is too far north. I want it further south!


If it comes off there, that is most likely an OTS storm.
Quoting 432. PlazaRed:

As a result of the wildfires over Madeira in the Azores, the government has asked the European Union for assistance to control them.
3 fire fighting planes sent from Spain and Italy so far.
Scenes of massive destruction on the Spanish evening news here.

Link
o sad to see all the destruction


Looks like 1 of the lows is in Mobile bay...raining like cats and dogs on the eastern shore right now....but there will be surf to have tomorrow!!
Earl was still classified as a wave when it looked like this.
Here on the s shore of lake Pontchartrain..its a very busy sky currently.

causeway bridge webcam
OK WU, what's up? The Tucson page tells me it is 87 out. Up where my favorites are, it says Tucson is 91. Then your app tells me it is 95!
WOW!!!!!!

Same (trough/disturbance/convection) on Sunday.
It was spinning like crazy 4 days ago. It's just moved to the west and is now off the coast of Mobile.
Quoting 453. Bucsboltsfan:



If it comes off there, that is most likely an OTS storm.


OTS/fish trash
463. Kyon5
Quoting 462. CaribBoy:



OTS/fish trash
It will most likely move farther south. It seems unrealistic that it will come off as a tropical storm at that latitude. Let's see if it corrects itself in future runs.
Quoting 450. CaribBoy:

The EURO CV wave/storm is too far north. I want it further south!



i think i made my point the other day you want every little wave too hit you no matter how strong or if its a cat 5
Our disturbance looks like half a system just like its half on and off shore.
Santa Rosa Beach is Wet and Gray... ugh.. I still think I'm in California at times and think it may be cool outside, HA! It's like a wet sauna out there today and I'm tempted to just wear a towel when I have to go outside. Right now it is 80f with 90% humidity. And so far we have received 2.77" today and will probably hit 6" for the week. Looking forward to some of that Sunshine State sunshine.

Here's a shot off the balcony looking WSW (toward Patrap's)
Quoting 463. Kyon5:

It will most likely move farther south. It seems unrealistic that it will come off as a tropical storm at that latitude. Let's see if it corrects itself in future runs.
It has been wavering with the northern exit vs the southern exit, but I agree that the southern exit seems more reasonable, but we have seen storms exit at that latitude, but I think it will leave the coast a bit more south.
Quoting 464. thetwilightzone:




i think i made my point the other day you want every little wave too hit you no matter how strong or if its a cat 5


Lol
Quoting 462. CaribBoy:



OTS/fish trash
You're not holding back anymore are you xD.
Quoting 367. weatherman994:

We Floridians are probably going to escape another season this year.

It's way to early to say anything like that. In 1965 Hurricane Betsy the B storm did not hit Florida until September 8th. In 1960 Donna did not hit untill September the 10th. So there's plenty of time for a Florida strike. As a matter of fact, in 1926, the sixth storm of the season (The Great Miami Hurricane) did not hit Miami until September the 18th.
472. Kyon5
Quoting 470. HurriHistory:


It's the same impatience we see every year. If there aren't 10 named storms by August 10th, the season's a bust.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hey there, neighbor! Not far from you, over in Laguna Beach/Sunnyside area just east of PCB. Santa Rosa Beach was looking a little waterlogged as I drove through today, hoping you guys can avoid much more, if only for the coastal dune lakes sake.

On that note, we've had close to 10' up to this point, mostly in quick spells of heavy rainfall. Stay dry, and please, for the sake of all of us on 30A, try to avoid the towel in public ;)

Quoting 466. JNFlori30A:

Santa Rosa Beach is Wet and Gray... ugh.. I still think I'm in California at times and think it may be cool outside, HA! It's like a wet sauna out there today and I'm tempted to just wear a towel when I have to go outside. Right now it is 80f with 90% humidity. And so far we have received 2.77" today and will probably hit 6" for the week. Looking forward to some of that Sunshine State sunshine.

Here's a shot off the balcony looking WSW (toward Patrap's)

Quoting 452. victoria780:

Looks like 18-20 degrees north latitude ,going to need to dip south if it affects the US

Ireland via Nova Scotia