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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Obviously I was joking about having you on ignore IKE.

TIA!!!!...;^)
Quoting hurricane23:


On wifes laptop but i can tell you The NAO has only a small correlation with overall U.S. hurricane landfall probabilities, but it appears to influence strongly which regions in the United States are most likely to experience a hurricane landfall. Strongly positive NAO values are associated with high intense hurricane landfall probabilities along the East Coast.

Adrian, I would think that strongly positive (like 2007) would mean more Central America and Mexican low rider hits.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Directly east of me. Hopefully she can lay down an inflow line before departing.
Pulse, u in the Palm Beaches, right?

I have to tell u, folks, I don't understand why we're having the so-called discussion with this Robert character. The minute he wished for a cat 5 to hit Miami, I knew he had to go. It almost impossible to get a cat five to the FL coast at that latitude without hit having gone through the Bahamas somehow. That's not even taking into consideration any other Caribbean islands the storm may have hit.

And while I respect ur right to have an opinion, I'll be [expletive deleted] if I'm going to waste time even observing the existence of someone who doesn't care about what happens to others. If this guy is a troll, we have a process for that; [!] [-] [Ignore]. If he's just a fool, [expletive deleted] if I'm going to sit here and even acknowledge that this level of stupidity exists.
4005. IKE
Emily is Touch and Go tonight.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V7lTFzdSn0
i was 4 when hurricane betsy hit we lost everything. The next major storm was Katrina my mom and dad lost everything again but that one was the worst i lost my dad..But i still love the weather and thats that..I don't wish any hurricane on anybody PEACE....
Floridians: The back of the line is -----> that way

I'm afraid Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona, Louisiana, and Georgia were here first for some rain XD
Quoting tropicfreak:


He will jfv.


=)
Quoting FLdewey:


Is this the start of a haiku?


Puke on floor- yellow.
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
Horrid pics, ma'am.
Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't understand why we're having the so-called discussion with this Robert character.


Troll feeders need the trolls, as much as the trolls need them.
Quoting SouthDadeNative:
Folks like you are why Fire Rescue personnel train


So, let me understand: Is that a good thing, or a bad thing?
4013. FLdewey
Might have to bring out the tux...
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Well, they all should have evacuated prior to the storm moving in, as simple as that. Mayor Nagen begged and downright pleaded to all of them to leave prior to Katrina moving in, heck, some were even saying those things with tears on the television. Therefore, despite all of that, there were still those that decided not to leave, that was their irresponsibility and not that of NOLA's officials, just saying.


Oh, this will not end well. This is known as kicking a hornet's nest, Robert. LOL.
4016. angiest
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I once saw a cat eat a whole stick of butter.


When we go to Texas Roadhouse, my 5 year old will put a whole scoop of butter on one roll. And when she eats pancakes and bacon, she will often dip the bacon in butter and syrup.

And this is healthy and to be encouraged in her.
Quoting caneswatch:


How ironic.


I pity the people that he counsels. They have no hope at all.
Not a drop of rain from Ems for us in Palm Beaches :(
Quoting hurricane23:


On wifes laptop but i can tell you The NAO has only a small correlation with overall U.S. hurricane landfall probabilities, but it appears to influence strongly which regions in the United States are most likely to experience a hurricane landfall. Strongly positive NAO values are associated with high intense hurricane landfall probabilities along the East Coast.


interesting stuff, thanks Adrian. Do you expect it to continue into September?
Quoting rv1pop:
OK. Look at Slidel, LA. Families still can not find each other - probably never will. Areas that never will again have power. Two houses I know of where there were (are) bodies inside that it is still too dangerous to go in and take care of them. A huricane party in section 8 housing that LA. said was illegal so the dead were not counted.


I do find the above very hard to believe.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link



Oh God, you have me all teary-eyed watching that now, =(. strong content.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I once saw a cat eat a whole stick of butter.


No I switched it when you weren't looking to "I can't believe it's not butter" So it was margarine. I didn't know cats liked it, unless it fooled the cat.
Emily weakened with the heat of the day..which like most days helped her slip a little farther west. She looks like she wants to get a blob on tonight. Under 10kts of shear, but check that..out of nowhere an anticyclone has set up nearby. If these couple & she should fire up.
We had a nasty squall or something around 4pm in west broward, had to pull off the road, very heavy rains and bad visibility. Was that from Emily or just regular afternoon storms?
Negative or neutral NAO predicted by the ECMWF for the next 10 days.

Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Well, they all should have evacuated prior to the storm moving in, as simple as that. Mayor Nagen begged and downright pleaded to all of them to leave prior to Katrina moving in, heck, some were even saying those things with tears on the television. Therefore, despite all of that, there were still those that decided not to leave, that was their irresponsibility and not that of NOLA's officials, just saying.


Slidell is not part of NOLA. Just saying.

If you're ordered to evacuate for a Cat. 5, would you? I personally doubt you would.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I pity the people that he counsels. They have no hope at all.


I second this.
Quoting tkeith:
3986. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

LMFAO!!!


OMG I am still Laughin

LMAO :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting flasooner:


I do find the above very hard to believe.



It has to be true, it was written right here on the blog.
Quoting CatfishJones:


Are you now? Fruedian or Jungian lean? Oedipus or Anti-Oedipus? Honestly, as I tagged your behavior as masochistic (i.e. intention of bring pain and suffering on oneself for the thrill), I do agree that you would not be "normal." Furthermore, Psychology is a broad field. You would likely specify Psychoanalysis, Neurology, Pathology, etc. So I call your bluff. Either you study neither the broad field of psychology or the equally broad field of sociology, or you are not going to get your degree. I'll talk your ears off about psychology and/ or sociology, both of which interest me greatly. Your childish spites and emphasis on names of the individual you pick out along with your lack of vocabulary reeking of the erudition required for either of those fields is an obvious tell. One need not be Caesar to understand Caesar, but it is generally required you at least get the lines right if you are trying to imitate him. Now please take your time in Wiki-searching those names I just threw out there for you so you can at least pretend to know what you're talking about.


I do not have to justify my academic credentials to you. however, as a kicker, I'll gladly send you a photocopy of my B.A in Psychology in December, if you'd like?
Quoting CatfishJones:


He apparently missed me explaining why his Psyche argument was a faulty syllogism for not being crazy.


As it did with me. He made absolutely no sense with that post.
4035. IKE

Quoting NavarreMark:


Lets not forget the deviled eggs and raisons now.

Quoting caneswatch:


Slidell is not part of NOLA. Just saying.

If you're ordered to evacuate for a Cat. 5, would you? I personally doubt you would.

I could see him making a raft out of his shower curtain and sailing into the ocean and asking the hurricane to marry him before it kills him.
18z GFS says Negative NAO for the next 2 weeks:

Quoting MississippiWx:
Negative or neutral NAO predicted by the ECMWF for the next 10 days.



Excellent trend, Mike, let's hope it continues.
4039. DFWjc
and now back to weather and not one ups-manships...
Quoting caneswatch:


Slidell is not part of NOLA. Just saying.

If you're ordered to evacuate for a Cat. 5, would you? I personally doubt you would.

Yea, I said that too, but facts that don't fit the argument are just ignored as if they don't exist.
Quoting DFWjc:
and now back to weather and not one ups-manships...


two ups-manship :)
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Excellent trend, Mike, let's hope it continues.


Mike? My name isn't Mike.
Quoting deaddude21:
Margarine is MUCH worse for the circulatory system than butter.


What he says, is true.

BTW, why do any of you believe anything RFB says? Are you that gullible?
Quoting deaddude21:

Adrian, I would think that strongly positive (like 2007) would mean more Central America and Mexican low rider hits.


Not not nessary it all depends were the trof set up is and many other things that come into play. People sometimes dont understand how difficult it can be for a cv storm to make that trek. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".

4047. IKE
Time for some popcorn and a cold Fresca.
4048. DFWjc
Quoting PcolaDan:


two ups-manship :)


Once again PcolaDan you are right!!
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


I do not have to justify my academic credentials to you. however, as a kicker, I'll gladly send you a photocopy of my B.A in Psychology in December, if you'd like?


He never asked you to.

Just for the record, you're gonna need more than a B.A. to get a job as a psychologist, much more.
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Excellent trend, Mike, let's hope it continues.


And a -NAO means less chances for a Florida hit, if you read Adrian's post correctly. Doesn't that mean BAD for you?
Quoting caneswatch:


How ironic.


Nothing ironic about that, it's what I love to study, it's my passion in life.
Quoting MississippiWx:
18z GFS says Negative NAO for the next 2 weeks:



What does NAO mean?
huh? west broward is in nebraska?

this blog gets stranger and stranger every year.
Quoting IKE:




i love deviled eggs....
What's with the Fresca addiction in this place? I don't get it. ;)
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


I do not have to justify my academic credentials to you. however, as a kicker, I'll gladly send you a photocopy of my B.A in Psychology in December, if you'd like?
Are you friends with that crazy guy from Connecticut?
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


of course I would, smart-a.


I call the bluff.
Quoting hurricane23:


Not not nessary it all depends were the trof set up is and many other things that come into play. People sometimes dont understand how difficult it can be for a cv storm to make that trek. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".


Great explanation my friend! Also, don't forget Ivan.
Quoting BahaHurican:


Looks like Broward / Palm Beach counties might get a few showers from our re-Emily after all...




Would love it, but don't think so....

4061. FLdewey
The center of circ is teasing Florida... staying JUST far enough away.

What a tease.

Quoting violet312s:


What does NAO mean?


North Atlantic Oscillation.
4065. IKE

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


i love deviled eggs....
I do too....but.....take frequent walks outside after divulging.

................................................. .................................................. .....


Okay, I had enough with that kid.

Na na na na, na na na na......
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Excellent trend, Mike, let's hope it continues.

FISHCASTER!!!!!!!!!!! lol
4068. DSIjeff
DOOM:CON Imagery:

Quoting IKE:

I do too....but.....take frequent walks outside after divulging.

................................................. .................................................. .....




LOL!!! Yep!
Quoting DFWjc:


Once again PcolaDan you are right!!


4071. nigel20
Whats up everyone?
I finally put our resident (soon to be) Psychologist on ignore.

Geeze – what are they teaching in college now days?
Quoting DSIjeff:
DOOM:CON Imagery:

It is kind of funny that different images make the systems look a lot worse than they actually are. Anyway, Grand Cayman received a nice shower from the trough Emily left behind a short while ago.
Quoting jonelu:
Looks like the rain is staying off shore...we still have yet to see a drop in WPB.


As I said, I was hopeful . . . really disappointing.
4076. angiest
Quoting nigel20:
Whats up everyone?


The sky.
Quoting hurricane23:


Took the full 150+ brunt in florida city. Thankfully storms like this dont come to our shores that often.
Word.

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
They changed our forecast today from 20% chance of rain to 40%....we didn't receive anything....blue skies for the most past all day
I'd say best chances for rainfall with this thing are between midnight and 5 a.m....

Quoting NOLALawyer:


I think the sympathy meter would peg higher if you showed what a storm can do to those living in poverty, in comparison to showing huge estates that are probably second or even third homes of the rich down in the Caymans.

I lived on South Beach when Andrew struck. I went down to Cutler Ridge and Homestead, and even could have worked down there had I chosen. It was unreal. Of course, that was one year in the last 23 that I have not resided in New Orleans.

I really don't think she's trying for the sympathy metre, NOLA.... she's trying to make the point that these are people's homes - prolly some of the best built in the basin - brought to nothing by a cat 5. And there are lots of permanent Caymanians....

In the Bahamas, we've got every kind of resident you can think of on the financial scale. Some of the richest people in the world maintain homes at Lyford Cay or on one of the other islands surrounding New Providence. At the other end of the scale we have people who still live in 4 room "clapboard" houses - picturesque, but not designed to withstand Cat 5 winds. When a storm hits, it doesn't just pick the rich or poor people's houses to destroy. EVERYBODY is impacted. So my Caymanian sister is just trying to emphasise there's no fun to this.

Quoting angiest:


Surely you superimposed a picture of Marco over Florida there.
Nope. Got it from Nasa Interactive Site...

Quoting FrankZapper:
Are you friends with that crazy guy from Connecticut?


heaven forbid.
Emily regenerated? I'm lost XD
Wow...82 pages and we don't even have a system to track; not even a yellow crayon. But we have Janiel, so I guess...
4081. IKE

Quoting angiest:


The sky.
lol. Gas prices. Especially after deviled eggs...raisins and pork and beans.
4082. 7544
emily jogging sw now /?
Quoting hurricane23:


Not not nessary it all depends were the trof set up is and many other things that come into play. People sometimes dont understand how difficult it can be for a cv storm to make that trek. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".



excellent reminder, bud, thanks.
4084. Patrap


4085. angiest


If the one line Emily is sitting in were to snap, she would immediately be slung up to Canada.
Quoting IKE:

I do too....but.....take frequent walks outside after divulging.

................................................. .................................................. .....
Quoting leelee75k:
huh? west broward is in nebraska?

this blog gets stranger and stranger every year.
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


LOL!!! Yep!


I know we all appreciate it..LOL I have to plead guilty of having to do the same. Love the deviled eggs; but they don't love me back.
Quoting caneswatch:


Slidell is not part of NOLA. Just saying.

If you're ordered to evacuate for a Cat. 5, would you? I personally doubt you would.
But then that would save us having to read his posts and quotes of his posts...

Just sayin'....
Quoting deaddude21:

Great explanation my friend! Also, don't forget Ivan.


And unusually strong high-pressure ridges steered Andrew into Homestead in '92 and Frances and Jeanne into Palm Beach/Martin counties in '04.
4091. DSIjeff
4093. nigel20
4094. DSIjeff
Emily moving?
4095. IKE

Quoting deaddude21:

Definitely not our credit rating...lol. A permanant stain on Obama's resume, agreed?
probably......
4096. angiest
Quoting IceCoast:




A chance of our first CV storm soon?
4097. ackee
I would love to know which area OF the US AND CARRB seem most at risk when we have a Negative NAO
Quoting BahaHurican:



Thank you Baha and that is exactly what I was trying to say.
4100. IKE

Quoting DSIjeff:
Emily moving?
Wiggling in the ATL. Day 7 for her soon.......
4101. nigel20
What are the models predicting over the next two weeks?
Noticed Vertical Instability has been pretty low compared to average.
Quoting angiest:


A chance of our first CV storm soon?


It's looking like it. GFS has been pretty consistent on trying to spin something up. Would like to see the Euro jump on board.
Regardless, the next two waves look good and i'd be surprised if one of them doesn't give us Franklin.
4109. nigel20
Quoting IceCoast:
Noticed Vertical Instability has been pretty low compared to average.

Whats the cause of this?
Quoting nigel20:
What are the models predicting over the next two weeks?


NHC/TAFB has a "nice"-looking storm east of the Bahamas and north of the Caribbean going into next week.
4112. DSIjeff
Where is the trough to kick her out?



Quoting emcf30:

No
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Thanks Keith =)


Good to have you here Angel.thanks for your input.
politics and religion
2 ban-able offenses in here
seen it many times before
4115. nymore
Quoting IKE:

Wiggling in the ATL. Day 7 for her soon.......
Emily is in Atlanta
4117. Thrawst
Quoting nigel20:
What are the models predicting over the next two weeks?


A lot. Particularly concerned with the GFS model though, what it shows.
Quoting FrankZapper:
We lower than Liechtenstein now.

Of course...countries like that aren't going to have any problems because they're so small and have so few people.
Quoting CatfishJones:


Inaudito: outrageous, unheard of. Grammar is usually a prerequisite. Also using Latin in a defacto manner, rather than a bricoluer style.(in the Levi-Strauss meaning, specifically making use of what one has; jury-rigging) But I digress. I'm done wasting space on you.



Spare me the lessons cause I already took my GRE and passed it with a fairly good score too, k?

I acquiesce, you filth. have a great night, =).
4120. angiest
Quoting nigel20:

Whats the cause of this?


If that chart includes the Gulf, then the ridge of death may be contributing.
Quoting CatfishJones:


Inaudito: outrageous, unheard of. Grammar is usually a prerequisite. Also using Latin in a defacto manner, rather than a bricoluer style.(in the Levi-Strauss meaning, specifically making use of what one has; jury-rigging) But I digress. I'm done wasting space on you.
Catfish, when did you get the PHD? :)
It looks like Emily took another cigarette break since the 5:00 PM update. I have seen a couple of systems stall: Elena in 1985 & Frances in 2004 but Emily has done this about three times now. How many COC relocations?
Quoting hurricane23:


Not not nessary it all depends were the trof set up is and many other things that come into play. People sometimes dont understand how difficult it can be for a cv storm to make that trek. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".

Well said, Adrian, and worth repeating.

The pattern that I'm watching is not just the high setup, but the troughiness as well. When / Where a trough comes through can make a huge difference.
Quoting nigel20:

Whats the cause of this?


From Dr. Masters Blog last season

"Vertical instability, which was unusually low since late July, has now returned to near normal levels over the tropical Atlantic (Figure 1), though it remains quite low over the rest of the North Atlantic. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promotes hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic were at record highs and upper tropospheric temperatures were several degrees cooler than average in July, enhancing instability, something else must have been going on to reduce instability. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere, due to large-scale sinking over the Atlantic, was responsible for the lack of instability."
4126. angiest
There are places to discuss politics, and I respectfully submit this ain't one of 'em. #justsayin
4128. DSIjeff
1014 surface pressure off NC...?

Quoting BahaHurican:
But then that would save us having to read his posts and quotes of his posts...

Just sayin'....


So true.
Quoting PcolaDan:
politics and religion
2 ban-able offenses in here
seen it many times before


but not often enought....or soon enough in this case.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well said, Adrian, and worth repeating.

The pattern that I'm watching is not just the high setup, but the troughiness as well. When / Where a trough comes through can make a huge difference.


There are (so many variables) involved in determining where a hurricane eventually makes landfall. A small pocket of shear that develops in the mid Atlantic east of the Caribbean may delay development of a disturbance for a day. That delay in development might mean the difference in a Florida or East U.S. Coast hit or a Bermuda hit. Timing is everything.
4133. pottery
It's a Madhouse in here tonight.
With a Resident Psycho too....

political blogs on WU

Link
Link
4135. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


4136. nigel20
Quoting IceCoast:


From Dr. Masters Blog last season

"Vertical instability, which was unusually low since late July, has now returned to near normal levels over the tropical Atlantic (Figure 1), though it remains quite low over the rest of the North Atlantic. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promotes hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic were at record highs and upper tropospheric temperatures were several degrees cooler than average in July, enhancing instability, something else must have been going on to reduce instability. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere, due to large-scale sinking over the Atlantic, was responsible for the lack of instability."

Thank you that was very informative.
Quoting angiest:


If that chart includes the Gulf, then the ridge of death may be contributing.

This one is for the Gulf. Other one was Tropical Atlantic.
4139. nigel20
Quoting caneswatch:


NHC/TAFB has a "nice"-looking storm east of the Bahamas and north of the Caribbean going into next week.

Thanks for thee update.
Quoting MississippiWx:
18z GFS says Negative NAO for the next 2 weeks:



Negative NAO,MJO over in Indian Ocean, spells BUSY BUSY BUSY??
Quoting InTheCone:



Would love it, but don't think so....

Well, I was thinking more likely later tonight.... lol.... looks like Emily is determined to prove me wrong...

Quoting IKE:

probably......
Unfairly...
4142. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
.


Nothing to say PP?
BTW What does "just sayin" really mean :|
4145. Bielle
Quoting deaddude21:

You look at when the economy started to tumble however...didn't commence until the Democrats took control of congress back in 2006. Then came the Fannie-Mae and Freddie-Mac housing crisis which John McCain warned about before.


Enough with the politics, please. Just stop, whatever side you take just stop.
4146. Patrap

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Houston...we have a problem. Over
4148. JLPR2
Interesting...
Seems the spin off Africa is at the mid-levels.
The small LLC that accompanied it was disrupted by a larger circulation that came off Africa during the day.


4149. nigel20
Quoting angiest:


If that chart includes the Gulf, then the ridge of death may be contributing.

Thanks
4150. angiest
Quoting PcolaDan:
BTW What does "just sayin" really mean :|


You can say anything you want without offending anybody if you finish it off with Just saying.
Quoting PcolaDan:


At least they can light the way.



ouch!
Quoting pottery:
It's a Madhouse in here tonight.
With a Resident Psycho too....



yep..i agree
Quoting Grothar:


Nothing to say PP?


I did, just not going to travel down that road. Good thing too cause said poster has been removed.
4154. Patrap
The rare double Blog Post with pic in "Dvorak".

Datz gotta be a bad sign fer someone.

Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for thee update.


No problem!
4156. angiest
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Houston...we have a problem. Over

Yes, the problem is Houston is getting no rain from that.
4157. DFWjc
Quoting NavarreMark:


Farts are okay though, as long as they're on topic.


I'm sorry I should have never mention farts in the first place...my bad
I still don't see a N heading... if any heading at all...JSL
4159. 7544
did she just wobble sw doesnt seem to moving much tonight
Quoting angiest:


You can say anything you want without offending anybody if you finish it off with Just saying.


Does that really work? I mean, the point has already been made. (geez, I must be getting old)
Quoting Thrawst:


A lot. Particularly concerned with the GFS model though, what it shows.
Thrawst. R U East or West? was wondering after u didn't reply last night...

And how was Emily for you? LOL
4162. DSIjeff
Quoting angiest:


You can say anything you want without offending anybody if you finish it off with Just saying.


It's a sign of weakness...just sayin'!

It is interchangeable with "LOL" at the end of an otherwise scathing comment..LOL!
Quoting Patrap:
The rare double Blog Post with pic in "Dvorak".

Datz gotta be a bad sign fer someone.



Any way to kick up the shear another 5kts. I'm just asking for the ball to move about 20 miles or so?

Emily, such a tease, been since day 1, lol.
4164. pottery
Quoting pottery:
It's a Madhouse in here tonight.
With a Resident Psycho too....



just sayin'.....
4165. Patrap
I always fig'yad dat meant I dont know WTH Im yakking on a bout atall.
4166. DFWjc
Quoting PcolaDan:


Does that really work? I mean, the point has already been made. (geez, I must be getting old)


but the real question is will anyone care?
4167. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I did, just not going to travel down that road. Good thing too cause said poster has been removed.


Smart move. The best statement I ever made, were the words I never spoke.
Quoting Patrap:

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



Wow!
4170. angiest
Quoting IceCoast:

This one is for the Gulf. Other one was Tropical Atlantic.


I didn't know if tropical Atlantic included all parts or just the Atlantic proper.
4171. Patrap
Me tinks Emily is trying to parellel park near Grothar and PP.
Emily looking like her sickly self. If you arew just going to sit there Emily,come west a bit and give Florida some rain.
4174. DSIjeff
hi srada.
Isnt she stalled over the Gulf Stream, and with less than 10kt of shear, ist it prime for intesification.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=S PGF1

SSW 15 knts. now on west end.

Was north last few hours.

Center must lie between there and palm beach now.
Quoting CatfishJones:


I'm more Liszt No.8 Wilde Jagd or Berlioz Symphonie Fantastique- Un Bal tonight...
I figure this for the epitome of a landfalling hurricane soundtrack:

Link
4178. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Me tinks Emily is trying to parellel park near Grothar and PP.


Wouldn't mind. We need the rain.
Quoting Patrap:
The rare double Blog Post with pic in "Dvorak".

Datz gotta be a bad sign fer someone.

lol....I'm pretty sure that's the first time in the blog's history we've had a dvorak double.
Quoting PcolaDan:
political blogs on WU

Link
Link
thanks for this, Dan.... nice to have a couple places to rant and rave w/out getting banned in the main blog.... lol


Quoting DSIjeff:


It's a sign of weakness...just sayin'!

It is interchangeable with "LOL" at the end of an otherwise scathing comment..LOL!


LOL, just sayin, LOL

wait was that redundant?
or is that like a double negative and I just insulted you (nicely) then retracted it with the last LOL
I'M SO CONFUUUUUSED
4182. DSIjeff
I would not be shocked at all to see Emily head across FL at this point.... not from a wx perspective, just sayin'!
4183. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
I always fig'yad dat meant I dont now WTH Im yakking on a bout atall.


heheheheh..
sort of like saying "well, I have not thought about this at all and dont know what it means, but want to throw it out there to see if anyone notices"
4184. srada
Quoting DSIjeff:
hi srada.


Hey Jeff!
4185. DSIjeff
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL, just sayin, LOL

wait was that redundant?
or is that like a double negative and I just insulted you (nicely) then retracted it with the last LOL
I'M SO CONFUUUUUSED


drives me nuts. been able to keep silent on it til now.

thanks a lot.

and I will NOT now use it, just to mock it. i did it once, and i am not proud.
I need help. We all know that Emily is a very confusing storm. Does anyone think that Florida will get some rain out of this? If so, when? Thank you. We really need the rain to help our drought.
Maybe why Emily is not going anywhere?

4188. Patrap
Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol....I'm pretty sure that's the first time in the blog's history we've had a dvorak double.



The Double Dip Dvorak...?


I like it.






4189. DSIjeff
Quoting srada:


Hey Jeff!



shhhh!

you'll blow my cover
4191. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL, just sayin, LOL

wait was that redundant?
or is that like a double negative and I just insulted you (nicely) then retracted it with the last LOL
I'M SO CONFUUUUUSED


That being said, I am, too. ....Just saying.
4192. DSIjeff
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Maybe why Emily is not going anywhere?



that anticyclone is helping her out i think.

interesting to see next set in about 40 minutes. she is looking pretty good, with little apparent motion (except ind of west)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol....I'm pretty sure that's the first time in the blog's history we've had a dvorak double.


Can that be ordered at the nearest bar? "I'll have a dvorak double please, on the rocks."
4196. srada
Quoting DSIjeff:



shhhh!

you'll blow my cover


(whispering) ok..sorry..
based on the imagery you would think some part of florida would be under watch or warning... just sayin, lol, haha and goodnight.

btw is every Saturday night like this?
4198. Patrap
..I see plans, within plans..

Quoting Grothar:


That being said, I am, too. ....Just saying.


What did you just say? :-|
Quoting floridastorm:
I need help. We all know that Emily is a very confusing storm. Does anyone think that Florida will get some rain out of this? If so, when? Thank you. We really need the rain to help our drought.


Didn't SE FL get some rains today?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Maybe why Emily is not going anywhere?



figgering her,she might just turn around and go back to africa
4202. DSIjeff
Quoting PcolaDan:


What did you just say? :-|


I see what you're just sayin'!
movie time....night all =) see you in the AM
4204. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


That being said, I am, too. ....Just saying.

You cant go around just saying just saying just like that. Saying just saying is like just saying nothing.

(feel free to add your own punctuation, if you like....)
4205. Patrap
btw is every Saturday night like this

O I hope not..we got 7-9 weeks of tuff Invest to cover
Quoting PcolaDan:
BTW What does "just sayin" really mean :|

Kinda like IMO... just sayin', thats IMO
Quoting DSIjeff:


I see what you're just sayin'!


And I raise you a LOL.
4208. DSIjeff
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


figgering her,she might just turn around and go back to africa


did not read that as "figgering her" initially.
..EMILY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 6
Location: 27.4N 78.2W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb

moving slowly north i assume
Quoting Patrap:
..I see plans, within plans..



What have you done with those plans?
4212. Grothar
Quoting leelee75k:
based on the imagery you would think some part of florida would be under watch or warning... just sayin, lol, haha and goodnight.

btw is every Saturday night like this?


No, usually it's boring.
Quoting Patrap:



The Double Dip Dvorak...?


I like it.






With sprinkles...of course.
So it is written, so it shall be done.
via Twitter
typhoonfury
It was indeed a wet one, still drying my kit out! RT @wunderground: RT @japantimes: Okinawa gets record typhoon rain http://ow.ly/5WQu6
22 minutes ago
Quoting DSIjeff:


that anticyclone is helping her out i think.

interesting to see next set in about 40 minutes. she is looking pretty good, with little apparent motion (except ind of west)


I see the low, still there, meandering. Steering at the surface is weak.... Just Sayin'



She won't be going North with her pal on the coast that is for sure.
4216. DSIjeff
isn't IMO kind of implied by default?
4217. srada
at least the masses saw it for the few seconds it was up and with that MISSION ACCOMPLISH!!

Emily is going to out sea by the way!
4218. Patrap
Im a Huge sprinkle Phan fo sho..


(..just saying)
25.6n78.0w, 26.0n78.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12amGMT ATCF
25.6n78.1w, 26.4n78.2w, 27.1n78.2w are now the most recent positions

TropicalDepressionEmily's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(N)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 22.8n77.0w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.1w, 25.6n78.1w-26.4n78.2w, 26.4n78.2w-27.1n78.2w, pbi, fpo, ilm, 26.4n78.2w-33.913n78.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TD.Emily was headed toward passage over OakIsland,SouthCarolina ~2days8hours from now

The previous mapping (for 6pmGMT)
jeff
watch this

_________________________________

careful
Quoting DSIjeff:
isn't IMO kind of implied by default?
yes, imo
4223. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

You cant go around just saying just saying just like that. Saying just saying is like just saying nothing.

(feel free to add your own punctuation, if you like....)


Sorry, you are correct, pott. It is just like a strong emotion, you know. It's a feeling you feel, when you feel a feeling your never felt before.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I figure this for the epitome of a landfalling hurricane soundtrack:

Link


The mood is right, but for a the duration of a Hurricane you really need a Russian like Shostakovich's 10th. Especially the second movement. This has Major Hurricane written all over.
Quoting DSIjeff:


did not read that as "figgering her" initially.
lolol
4229. pottery
Quoting NavarreMark:


Now that ya mention it, I've got my eye on.....Oh never mind.

You can tell me.
I wont tell her.....
4230. DSIjeff
I think Ems (credit: Reed) will surprise us all.
IS emily lost, i thought only men dont ask for directions?
I see the red smoke, and the flash of green.

I thought Glinda was supposed to arrive by now.

Are the munchkins screaming yet?
I actually stopped in to ask a couple of questions from the experts and seem to have been distracted by other posts on here. Just saying, must be old age setting in.

It looks like Tropical Mess Emily has been upgraded to TD Emily and she appears to have stalled over the Gulf Stream which is nice and warm and conducive for tropical weather development.

With that being said the trade winds seem to be coming from the west which should help drive Emily to the East; but there is a high on the West Coast of Florida which is keeping Emily off the coast of Florida and not allowing Palm Beach to get any rain.

If this was an actual Tropical Storm, I might be able to ascertain some direction that this system would like to trek towards; but as it stands I have no idea where this system is headed or whether it is just going to collapse. Anyone have an educated guess on what is going to happen next with this storm:
Quoting aspectre:
25.6n78.0w, 26.0n78.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12amGMT ATCF
25.6n78.1w, 26.4n78.2w, 27.1n78.2w are now the most recent positions

exEmily's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(North)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 22.8n77.0w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.1w, 25.6n78.1w-26.4n78.2w, 26.4n78.2w-27.1n78.2w, pbi, fpo, ilm, 26.4n78.2w-33.913n78.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
exEmily was headed toward passage over OakIsland,southCarolina ~2days8hours from now

The previous mapping (for 6pmGMT)
last point should be west of west end. about 50-60 miles east of Jupiter.

SSW wind at west end
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =SPGF1
4236. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, you are correct, pott. It is just like a strong emotion, you know. It's a feeling you feel, when you feel a feeling your never felt before.

I never felt a feeling I couldnt feel that I felt before.

(?)
..EMILY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

...just sayin
4238. angiest
Quoting DSIjeff:
I think Ems (credit: Reed) will surprise us all.


Not sure where it comes from, but Ems seems to be a nickname for Emily. I've heard people call my daughter that.
4239. Patrap
Im gonna go with Pink Floyd, Welcome to the Machine for my Eyewall Listening Pleasure..



you bought a guitar to punish ya Ma,,

You dint like schul,,ya know ya nobody's phoool..


4240. srada
Quoting Methurricanes:
IS emily lost, i thought only men dont ask for directions?


LOL, She is waiting on Franklin..apparently he cant make up his mind where he wants to go..
I think I bettah get outtah heah before I bust another gut and find myself having to sue dewey for his devilishly dastard and humourous comments... lol

Night, ya'll... I'll likely check in latah to see how Em is farin'...
Fresh ASCAT a little over an hour ago..
I laughed at this part of the discussion:

"EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION."

That's like saying "I have a monstrous and ferocious kitty cat".
4244. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go with Pink FLoyd, Welcome to the Machine foer my Eyewall Listening Pleasure..



you bought a guitar to punish ya Ma,,

You dint like schul,,ya know ya nobody's phoool..




Wouldn't you like to be Comfortably Numb during the storm?
4245. DSIjeff
02z Sea Lvl pressure:



here is 01Z, one hour earlier:


notice how the pressure increased? i think the "kicking trough" is not going to do the job

Link
Quoting NavarreMark:


I've properly destroyed them and I'll never talk.


ROFL
4247. ackee
ANYONE notice the NAM has a LOW in the westrn carrb at 84 hours
it doesnt seem that emily is moving since this morning(calif time here). whats up with that? models saying the tail of that colf front gonna pull emily north,but isnt there a high north of emily by ga/sc to keep her where shes at or go west??????????

please esplain to the dummy who hasnt even taken met90
4249. Patrap
Emily Morphs out another cell Cluster in Warm SSt's

4250. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I laughed at this part of the discussion:

"EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION."

That's like saying "I have a monstrous and ferocious kitty cat".
Hey some cats are scary enough to chase my dog away, lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
But hey, we got on this blog pple who think that having a cat 5 cane or an EF-5 tornado come to visit ur community "just so they can see what it's like" is just a way cool idea.... never mind that it destroys everything in its path.... pple who misrepresent their credentials and haven't a clue about correct facts regarding the geography and history of their own country, much less the world's.... and they talk louder and more than everybody else.... might make world creditors a little gunshy, IMO, when these are the people electing Senators and representatives...

have to agree Baja
So i see Emily has officially killed 5 people now... unfortnately that could climb closer to 10 before its all said and done, with the heavy rain she has produced....
Emily is the last coat of Primer for the Season, Now the first coat of the paint will be put on,
Franklin is up to bat, and he appears likely to be our first cape verde storm of the season...
5-0-0, should be IMO 9-3-2 by the end of the month... Maybe
Quoting CatfishJones:


The mood is right, but for a the duration of a Hurricane you really need a Russian like Shostakovich's 10th. Especially the second movement. This has Major Hurricane written all over.
Ya, good program-sounding music for that.
Quoting Patrap:
Emily Morphs out another cell Cluster in Warm SSt's


Isn't she pretty close to the Gulf Stream?
rebroadcast of la lapalooza tonight google it
Emily has been in that warm pool all day..
Looks like I got my answer on where it's going from here:
Link
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Didn't SE FL get some rains today?

Yeah but not the coast as much. Broward and Dade had some downpours but not Coastal Palm Beach where its needed.
I guess everyone has looked at the vorticity of this thing, and knows she's stacked perfectly?

I think this should be reposted as a reminder of why Glinda never arrived, and the Munchkins are still screaming.



4264. Grothar
Quoting floridastorm:

Yeah but not the coast as much. Broward and Dade had some downpours but not Coastal Palm Beach where its needed.


We didn't have any downpours.
4265. nigel20
4266. Grothar
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1006.7mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.2 2.5
Emily Satellite estimate; apparantly not very accurate...
Quoting angiest:


Wouldn't you like to be Comfortably Numb during the storm?
To feel the warm thrill of confusion, that space cadet glow
4270. angiest
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1006.7mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.2 2.5
Emily Satellite estimate; apparantly not very accurate...


Wasn't she rated as a hurricane at one point? Which, obviously, was incorrect.
4271. Levi32
Emily's naked surface center is taking off to the NNE, now north of the Bahamas, while the shearing from the upper high to the north is pushing the convection and mid-level center towards a more NNW course, a little closer to the Florida coastline.

Vis/IR2 Loop
Angiest, that is correct, she peaked in estimates around 64 knots, and T# of 4
4273. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
To feel the warm thrill of confusion, that space cadet glow


Or avoid it entirely and Run Like He'll.
22-25 knts out of the SW. West end Grand Bahama.

Storm center just NW of there.

4275. DSIjeff
In a weakness, but steering is so minimal... and that trough isn't exactly deep.

Quoting angiest:


Wouldn't you like to be Comfortably Numb during the storm?
well, here's one for the eye Wall
My Tom-cat literally chased off a full grown husky just the other day...
It was probably about 8 times his body weight.

Hilarious to watch.
4278. nigel20
Kinda weird the wind direction on this buoy is fairly strong out of the SW... makes me think the low level circulation is slightly more west than the latest advisory is indicating. The winds definately picked up in the last hour there though.

Data Buoy
4280. angiest
Quoting DSIjeff:
In a weakness, but steering is so minimal... and that trough isn't exactly deep.



Steering in the Gulf kinda reminds me of when we had Don. Indeed, right now something could possibly move right up towards Matagorda.
Quoting Abacosurf:
22-25 knts out of the SW. West end Grand Bahama.

Storm center just NW of there.




oops, beat me to it :)~
Quoting angiest:


Or avoid it entirely and Run Like He'll.
Cause if they catch you in the back seat trying to pick her locks..
Quoting Levi32:
Emily's naked surface center is taking off to the NNE, now north of the Bahamas, while the shearing from the upper high to the north is pushing the convection and mid-level center NNW, a little closer to the Florida coastline.

Vis/IR2 Loop


Looks like still a low to the north and west of Freeport GBI right now.

SW 16knts.

Is this a trailing trough line???

Quoting lovemamatus:
Emily is very much on course to strike between Myrtle and Wilmington. Intensification phase ramps up, Cat 1 by tomorrow evening. Weak Cat 3 at at landfall. Please rush final preparations in these areas. McTavish numbers have actually increased to the 6.7 range, but may be overstated due to the warm SSTs. Dr. Bongevine will be making a statement at 2:47 AM EST.


link of proof?
My birthday is in 32 minutes... Woot-Woot.
4288. angiest
Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?


Those models are all figments.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?
here is the link of proof
Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?
Seriously?

Until the existence of McTavish numbers are backed up with some documentation, I recommend ignoring.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
My birthday is in 32 minutes... Woot-Woot.


mine is in 1,471 minutes....
4292. Levi32
Quoting Abacosurf:


Looks like still a low to the north and west of Freeport GBI right now.

SW 16knts.

Is this a trailing trough line???



Recon had the pressure minimums north of all of the islands all afternoon. It makes sense that it has continued north, and has now left the convective mass. Reformation may be possible, but Emily is again a sheared system, just like she always has been, but this time in a different direction, similar to how Don was sheared in the Gulf of Mexico with all the convection SW of the center.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?

Do Not Feed the Troll
Quoting Levi32:


Recon had the pressure minimums north of all of the islands all afternoon. It makes sense that it has continued north, and has now left the convective mass. Reformation may be possible, but Emily is again a sheared system, just like she always has been, but this time in a different direction, similar to how Don was sheared in the Gulf of Mexico.


SW now 22-25 knts.

Pressure rising however.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


mine is in 1,471 minutes....

Woot woot? lol
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do Not Feed the Troll
why can't we feed the leprechaun ?
Tropicalweather2011,
Yep with that map giving it a 3 out 12, the NHC will likely mention it tomorrow if trends with the tropical wave continue...(10 to 20% chance given probably)
4298. scott39
Quoting tiggeriffic:


mine is in 1,471 minutes....
Mine is in 28800 minutes.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously?

Until the existence of McTavish numbers are backed up with some documentation, I recommend ignoring.


yeah...kind of figured...esp when the link was to wik for troll def
Quoting hunkerdown:
why can't we feed the leprechaun ?

According to Wikipedia, that's a troll, not a leprechaun LOL
4301. rv1pop
Quoting flasooner:


I do find the above very hard to believe.

Are you, or were you there? Did you respond? Did you feed people from the back of your Suburban? Were you at the hospital where the doctors need to do amputations and the ONLY medicine they had was aspirin? I did not think so. Be a first responder and see it close up. -- Well I was not either, but I was a supplier, got day 3 pictures and then saw the aftermath. Oh, yeah, there was almost no TV or newspaper coverage of Slidel.
Quoting scott39:
Mine is in 28800 minutes.
I've got you beat, 420,504 minutes here...
4303. Patrap
Im 620 mths young
New Center 27N 79W.

maybe 10 miles SE of that way point.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

According to Wikipedia, that's a troll, not a leprechaun LOL
see post 4289
Quoting hunkerdown:
I've got you beat, 420,504 minutes here...

AHH!! You win.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this 20 miles offshore of Fort pierce or Vero Bch in the AM.

Just not lifting out on all levels yet.
maybe invest 92L soon
00z GFS running, 12Hrs
gnomes are safe though
4311. angiest
Quoting rv1pop:
Are you, or were you there? Did you respond? Did you feed people from the back of your Suburban? Were you at the hospital where the doctors need to do amputations and the ONLY medicine they had was aspirin? I did not think so. Be a first responder and see it close up. -- Well I was not either, but I was a supplier, got day 3 pictures and then saw the aftermath. Oh, yeah, there was almost no TV or newspaper coverage of Slidel.


I was thinking there was an article somewhere here on WU that had a flyover of Katrina's landfall area, and showed the impact in the forgotten areas. I wasn't able to locate it though.
4312. Patrap
The Low Level Faux Emily has slipped Ne and left behind a Doppleganger..

Quoting NavarreMark:


What are ya talkin bout? Raquel?

Rule #1 - Here they are never really truly sincerely dead. OR

#2 - They're never really most sincerely dead.

As coroner, I must concur, that she's ... to be, if she ...

Red smoke, flash of green ...

"screaming munchkins"

4314. Patrap
Google Slidell,La,,Katrina or in YouTube and theres lotsa footage from 05
no good when you see yellow on this map
4317. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


if its "no good", then why are you showing it to us ?
4319. JLPR2
Getting interesting.
Quoting JLPR2:
Getting interesting.

Looks a little ominous.
4323. ackee
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
maybe invest 92L soon
nice get early moedel runs on this the GFS also devlop another wave as well intresting times ahead
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Looks a little ominous.
something to watch down the road
30Hrs 00zGFS
Interesting West Palm may get some rain out of this after all:
Weather Station
President Country Club, West Palm Beach

Nowcast as of 10:31 PM EDT on August 6, 2011
Through late this evening...isolated showers will continue to move slowly south through the northern areas of South Florida mainly north of Alligator alley. Wind gusts up to 20 mph and rainfall amounts up to tenth of an inch will occur with the heaviest showers. Mariners can also expect higher waves in and near the showers.

Quoting lovemamatus:
If Big Lou McTavish heard that remark, he would be insulted and hurt. Fortunately, he passed some time ago.

Proof? The 35 models you rely on are generally so far off its a joke. One or 2 are going to be close, and they are seized upon like a ballplayer having a good season. Are there any forecasters out there on this site? Do you remember and refer back to what happenned when the maps looked a certain way....or do you wait for the UKMET, BAM, SHI(t)PS or some other to cover your lousy "read". Pathetic.

No trough, no hook, only Wilmington. I want you to put your careers on ignore when Wilmington gets hit by Emily.


Bold 1. Ah, the old "everything else sucked which proves mine is right" proof.

Bold 2. Huh?
4328. angiest
Googling for "lou mctavish" hurricane returns links to the comments section of Dr. Masters' blogs, and nothing else. (other than a link that is obviously unrelated)
4329. rv1pop
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously?

Until the existence of McTavish numbers are backed up with some documentation, I recommend ignoring.
McTavish was a bar in Seattle.
4330. ackee
I think the NHC may be force to take out their yellow crayon at 2am for the wave in the Eastern Atlantic
4331. Patrap
pssssstt,, lovemamatus



M-a-m-m-a-t-u-s
Good night all. Have a great evening. Don't eat the trolls, they will leave a terrible taste in your mouth, go back to eating the butter.
Quoting Patrap:
The Low Level Faux Emily has slipped Ne and left behind a Doppleganger..



The word of the day - doppleganger. Doppelgngers often are perceived as a sinister form of bilocation and generally regarded as harbingers of bad luck. (Wiki reference)
Quoting StAugustineFL:


The word of the day - doppleganger. Doppelgängers often are perceived as a sinister form of bilocation and generally regarded as harbingers of bad luck.
lol
4335. angiest
Quoting rv1pop:
McTavish was a bar in Seattle.


When this started showing up it was MacTavish. He likes to change the spelling.
Quoting rv1pop:
McTavish was a bar in Seattle.
Craig MacTavish is an former NHLer and current AHL coach...maybe he is the one with the models.
48Hrs GFS
4338. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
Craig MacTavish is an former NHLer and current AHL coach...maybe he is the one with the models.


Do models like former hockey players?
4339. scott39
The wave at 5W 10N is going to be the one to watch.
Good Night.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
My birthday is in 32 minutes... Woot-Woot.


Happy Birthday!
Quoting angiest:


When this started showing up it was MacTavish. He likes to change the spelling.
you know how it goes, tell enough lies and you can't keep 'em straight
4343. Patrap
Must be a Canadian Model obviously


4344. Patrap
Happy B-day wnPR
4345. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
you know how it goes, tell enough lies and you can't keep 'em straight


Particularly when you are using multiple accounts to do it.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Night.


Happy birthday! :D
Quoting Patrap:
Must be a Canadian Model obviously


touche...how true :) ...give that man a frosty cold Fresca
4348. DFWjc
Quoting PcolaDan:
gnomes are safe though


Do they save you on your hotel rooms?
From June 2009 Huffington Post...  models DID like hockey players at one point...

"Model Rachel Hunter has been left devastated after her fiance Jarret
Stoll cancelled their wedding just seven weeks before they were due to
tie the knot.

Canadian hockey player Jarret, 27, suddenly called off their
engagement by emailing guests informing them the August 14 nuptials were
off."

4350. Patrap
..a touche'

,,cool


Tyvm fo da Fresca too,,dey my Fav
4351. angiest
Quoting DFWjc:


Do they save you on your hotel rooms?


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.
4352. DFWjc
Quoting angiest:


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.


LMAO! Angie you always make me laugh everytime your on
4353. scott39
Quoting scott39:
The wave at 5W 10N is going to be the one to watch.
GFS developes this one. A long way off, but still something to watch.
4354. SLU
Just had a minor earthquake in St. Lucia at 12:02am. I'll wait for updates from the USGS.
Good Evening from South Fla.. By chance anyone have the link / URL to the buoy locations?

Thanks
Steve..
Quoting angiest:


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.
is your roommate a caveman ?


This is my 1st attempt at uploading a photo.

Near Tegucigalpa Honduras after Hurricane Mitch. There was a lot of damage from landslides and flooding well inland.
Quoting RescueAFR:
Good Evening from South Fla.. By chance anyone have the link / URL to the buoy locations?

Thanks
Steve..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Quoting lovemamatus:
Emily is very much on course to strike between Myrtle and Wilmington. Intensification phase ramps up, Cat 1 by tomorrow evening. Weak Cat 3 at at landfall. Please rush final preparations in these areas. McTavish numbers have actually increased to the 6.7 range, but may be overstated due to the warm SSTs. Dr. Bongevine will be making a statement at 2:47 AM EST.
poof!
Quoting angiest:


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.
lol! Good one!
78Hrs GFS
Quoting Abacosurf:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Thank you..
Quoting IceCoast:
78Hrs GFS
whoever recolored these GFS images must have been on a really bad trip, or a really good one...
4366. angiest
Quoting DFWjc:


LMAO! Angie you always make me laugh everytime your on


Didn't know I was that funny.

The name is angiest (the ST are part of it), but it is pronounced vote-on. Now, let's see anyone untangle that.
4367. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just wrote a blog on Emily and the eastern Atlantic. Check it out if you want.
Do you look for more troughs to turn TCs before landfall in the USA?
Quoting angiest:


Didn't know I was that funny.

The name is angiest (the ST are part of it), but it is pronounced vote-on. Now, let's see anyone untangle that.
?????
i am watching 20west and 5 west!!
OOHHHH!!!  I thought your name was "Angriest" but that you were a crappy speller (a common condition in WUWorld).

Glad to know you don't have anger management issues :)

As for the pronunciation...  :P
Quoting angiest:


Didn't know I was that funny.

The name is angiest (the ST are part of it), but it is pronounced vote-on. Now, let's see anyone untangle that.

Quoting hunkerdown:
?????
LMAO, my name is Robert but it is pronounced as JAY-sin.
This is just wrong...Bette Midler said it best..

4374. Levi32
Quoting hunkerdown:
whoever recolored these GFS images must have been on a really bad trip, or a really good one...


It's making me stop using that site until it goes back to the way it was (if it ever does). I like seeing my 588-592dm ridges the same color every frame. Otherwise I can't tell if heights have risen or fallen.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just wrote a blog on Emily and the eastern Atlantic. Check it out if you want.
Nice summary of ex-Em.
What you are saying about the big picture is that we appear to be entering a quiet phase through Aug 15. This has been my feeling for some time and I concur.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO, my name is Robert but it is pronounced as JAY-sin.
Well I could see that since you walk around in that ridiculous looking bird suit :P
Quoting scott39:
Do you look for more troughs to turn TCs before landfall in the USA?


That's impossible to say at this point. However, I do foresee the eastern Atlantic wave getting quite far west before potentially being picked up by any trough.
If anyone thinks Wilmington is in the crosshairs for a major (or otherwise), they've been hitting the bong or partaking of the vine.
4380. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO, my name is Robert but it is pronounced as JAY-sin.


Wait a second, you are just another incarnation of Jason?
Quoting FrankZapper:
Nice summary of ex-Em.
What you are saying about the big picture is that we appear to be entering a quiet phase through Aug 15. This has been my feeling for some time and I concur.


Most likely, yes. Development could be quite limited with the 20W wave until it reaches the Lesser Antilles in about seven days.
Quoting lovemamatus:
Bongevine's statement will be out in 131 minutes. I may not be able to stay awake for it. Pay careful attention to the McTavish numbers. If >7.1 we got BIG problems. Wilmington not taking this seriously.



I strangely want a glass of milk now...
Was WAITING for that, lmbo!!!
Quoting angiest:


Wait a second, you are just another incarnation of Jason?

4384. DFWjc
hopefully this is weather related, but i started my first day at Cowboys Stadium(a footy match), and i got a hella sunburn. However that's not the part I'm worried about, I have a temp of 102.2(digital therm) and not feeling sick, any helpful tips?
Quoting hunkerdown:
Well I could see that since you walk around in that ridiculous looking bird suit :P
Lemme not get into the pronunciation of your mascot. :)

Quoting angiest:


Wait a second, you are just another incarnation of Jason?
I'm sure we all have a little bit of Jason in us.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
This is just wrong...Bette Midler said it best..

with that radar, this is more fitting
4387. DFWjc
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lemme not get into the pronunciation of your mascot. :)
I'm sure we all have a little bit of Jason in us.


Ewww. NO!
Quoting floodzonenc:
OOHHHH!!!  I thought your name was "Angriest" but that you were a crappy speller (a common condition in WUWorld).

Glad to know you don't have anger management issues :)

As for the pronunciation...  :P



I thought there were a lot of Angies but she is the Angiest of them all.
GFS showing a little trough taht may cause some local mischief 4 days out off of N florida.
4390. angiest
Quoting floodzonenc:
OOHHHH!!!  I thought your name was "Angriest" but that you were a crappy speller (a common condition in WUWorld).

Glad to know you don't have anger management issues :)

As for the pronunciation...  :P

Quoting hunkerdown:
?????


Click on my avatar.
4391. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's impossible to say at this point. However, I do foresee the eastern Atlantic wave getting quite far west before potentially being picked up by any trough.
The wave still over Africa at about 5W looks strong.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I thought there were a lot of Angies but she is the Angiest of them all.
now that should earn you a ban :)
Greetings again.. I know this site isnt the appropriate place to post this.. but please keep in your thoughts the 31+ GIs (and their families) killed yesterday in Afghanistan..the worst helo crash in the war..
Thanks,
Steve
4394. phlash
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?
4395. SLU
Magnitude 5.1 - SAINT LUCIA REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
2011 August 07 04:01:11 UTC


Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time Sunday, August 07, 2011 at 04:01:11 UTC
Sunday, August 07, 2011 at 12:01:11 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 13.826°N, 60.346°W
Depth 42 km (26.1 miles)
Region SAINT LUCIA REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
Distances 72 km (44 miles) ESE of CASTRIES, St. Lucia
113 km (70 miles) NW of BRIDGETOWN, Barbados
116 km (72 miles) SE of FORT-DE-FRANCE, Martinique
805 km (500 miles) SE of SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico

4396. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lemme not get into the pronunciation of your mascot. :)

I'm sure we all have a little bit of Jason in us.



WOW!

Yeah... I guess so XD
4397. DFWjc
Quoting phlash:
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?


one word - Dementia
Quoting phlash:
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?
gone in a phlash...
Quoting JLPR2:



WOW!

Yeah... I guess so XD
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...
4401. DFWjc
Quoting hunkerdown:
gone in a phlash...


gone like emily? wait no, she keeps coming back, damn, thought i had a funny there...
4402. scott39
Quoting floodzonenc:
Harmon



Dickinson (for the elder statesmen like Pat)




NONE of them are the Angiest of all!!!
I dont care what thier NAME is!!!
Quoting phlash:
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?
What ever happened to a 5 cent loaf of bread?
Quoting hunkerdown:
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...
This is true. It also needs 2 exclamation points.
4405. JLPR2
Quoting hunkerdown:
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...


Yeah, only a little bit of Jason, not him. :\
You're welcome... :)
4407. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...


Also missing the requisite number of bangs.
Quoting floodzonenc:
Harmon



Dickinson (for the elder statesmen like Pat)




NONE of them are the Angiest of all!!!



Love the big, round ear rings..
Quoting FrankZapper:
What ever happened to a 5 cent loaf of bread?
and what the heck happened to the price of gas...
4410. nigel20
Quoting angiest:


Also missing the requisite number of bangs.


and background shower curtains...
Quoting DFWjc:
hopefully this is weather related, but i started my first day at Cowboys Stadium(a footy match), and i got a hella sunburn. However that's not the part I'm worried about, I have a temp of 102.2(digital therm) and not feeling sick, any helpful tips?


Get into a cool place with AC and rest. Sip some cold water. Maybe have a cool shower (water temp cool but not cold).
NEW BLOG
Quoting floodzonenc:


and background shower curtains...
let me tell you about the goldfish...
4415. scott39
The wave that is over Africa right now, is going to me the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season! You heard it here first. This info and a $1 at Mcdonalds will get you a McDouble.
4416. DFWjc
Quoting Progster:


Get into a cool place with AC and rest. Sip some cold water. Maybe have a cool shower (water temp cool but not cold).


Cool, I been soaking every 30 mins, and been sipping gatorade and water(alternating) I have it about 72F in my pad. Should I sleep, heard conflicting stories your body temp gets warmer sleeping...
Quoting DFWjc:


Cool, I been soaking every 30 mins, and been sipping gatorade and water(alternating) I have it about 72F in my pad. Should I sleep, heard conflicting stories your body temp gets warmer sleeping...


You should be OK. You've nipped heat stroke in the bud but the next time you work in extremely warm conditions you've got to take it easy.

Link
Forgive me if this idea has been discussed before, but...

I wonder if a particular forecast could be assigned a quantified level of confidence.  For instance, a TS has 50 mph winds and NHC has their "cone".  It would be cool to me if they had a "1 to 10" scale for intensity and another for track.  So the intensity forecast could be a "9" on the confidence scale given atmospheric conditions and model agreement, or it could be a "4" if less confidence exists. 

I only thought of this last week when people were discussing the "cone" which as I understand has been narrowed this season.  To my knowledge, the cone doesn't take "level of confidence" into account.  (In my mind, low confidence could be shown with a "wide" cone and vice-versa.)

Please let me know if I misunderstand the current system and your thoughts about this idea.  I am not a met, but I DID stay at a Holiday Inn Express last month.
I believe a surface circulation is developing and intensifying over the waters southeast of the CV islands associated with the tropical wave that emerged off of Africa two days ago. Organization continues of the low's circulation and thunderstorm activity. As for TD Emily, she is probably intensifying now with the best she has looked in her lifetime.