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Remembering the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys

By: Bob Henson 5:50 PM GMT on September 07, 2015

As Tropical Storm Grace struggles in the Atlantic (see below), today offers a chance to commemorate the victims of a much more devastating cyclone. Eighty years ago, on this federal holiday that recognizes U.S. workers, a group of World War I veterans toiling to improve life on the Florida Keys lost their lives in one of the great workplace tragedies of U.S. history. The strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere brought Category 5 winds and a terrifying storm surge to the upper Florida Keys on the late evening of Monday, September 2, 1935. The compact Labor Day hurricane of 1935 developed very rapidly from a system that was classified as a tropical storm less than two days before landfall in the Keys. Brushing the south end of Andros Island, it headed toward the north coast of Cuba before angling unexpectedly rightward and intensifying with astonishing speed as it approached the Keys, passing over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits. As the hurricane barreled across the Keys on Monday night, local weather observer Ivar Olsen measured 26.35” (892 mb) with a barometer that was later tested and proven reliable at the Weather Bureau. This remains the lowest value ever measured by a ground-based station in a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere. (Dropsondes released by reconaissance aircraft produced sea-level pressure measurements of 882 mb on October 19, 2005, during Hurricane Wilma, and 870 mb on October 12, 1979, during Typhoon Tip). The 1935 hurricane went on to skirt the west coast of the Florida peninsula before accelerating northeastward, reentering the Atlantic off the Virginia coastline and producing rains that topped 16” in Maryland.


Figure 1. Track of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.


Figure 2. Surface weather analysis from the U.S. Weather Bureau for September 4, 1935, showing the Labor Day hurricane two days after it struck the Keys. NOAA, via Wikipedia.

The storm’s rapid development combined with several other factors to produce the human tragedy that resulted. No satellite monitoring was available in 1935, and ships avoided tropical cyclones for good reason. As a result, forecasters at a brand-new Hurricane Warning Center, established that year in Jacksonville, Florida, by the U.S. Weather Bureau, could only surmise from nearby surface stations how quickly the storm was developing and how its motion was evolving. Persistence forecasting suggested that the storm’s west-southwest motion would take it to the north coast of Cuba, but there was little sign of its approach there on Monday morning. An American “barnstormer” pilot with the Cuba Army Air Corps, Capt. Leonard Povey, volunteered to carry out what is believed to be the first-ever hurricane-hunter flight, approaching the storm on Monday afternoon in an open-cockpit Curtis Hawk II aircraft. Povey found the hurricane further north than expected, and a hurricane warning was issued for the Keys at 4:30 pm, just a few hours before the hurricane struck full force.


Figure 3. Drawings of the Curtis Hawk II aircraft that Capt. Leonard Povey used to investigate the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the world’s first known “hurricane hunter” flight. Image credit: NOAA Hurricane Research Division.


Figure 4. The rescue train derailed by the 1935 Labor Day hurricane before it had a chance to rescue the hundreds of veterans stationed on the Keys. Image credit: Wikipedia.

The most heartbreaking parts of the saga are vividly told in “Storm of the Century: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935” (National Geographic, 2002), which I reviewed for Weatherwise magazine. (This interview with author Willie Drye hits many of the main points.) Hundreds of veterans had been deployed to the Keys to build the most difficult sections of the highway that now runs the length of the island chain, from Key West to Miami. Many veterans of World War I had struggled to find work and deal with postwar life, and the Great Depression hit them particularly hard. At the Keys, they were housed in hastily built barracks and tents that stood no chance of surviving a Category 5 hurricane. Superiors recognized the potential for disaster if a hurricane were to strike, but as “Storm of the Century” recounts in agonizing detail, a series of miscues--ranging from slack holiday schedules to telephone miscommunications to obstructions along the railway track to simple inertia--meant that a rescue train ran hours later than it should have. The train ended up pushed off its tracks by the storm; miraculously, everyone on board survived, but the train had not yet reached hundreds of the most vulnerable workers. At least 257 veterans and 228 civilians died in the winds and storm surge of that horrifying evening. (See video at bottom, which includes recent interviews with two survivors.]

How much at risk are the Keys today?
An 80th-anniversary symposium held on September 2 at the Keys History & Discovery Center in Key West looked back at the awful events of 1935 from the perspective of today’s hurricane risk. The presenters included local historian Jerry Wilkinson, who has studied the hurricane for decades and worked to establish permanent individual markers for the lost veterans, and former National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield, who discussed the current landscape of NWS and NHC hurricane warnings and the continued vulnerability of the Keys. A second night of commemoration will take place Tuesday, September 8, at the Keys History & Discovery Center. Curator Brad Bertelli will join British-based novelist and Florida native Vanessa Lafaye, author of “Under a Dark Summer Sky,” a work of historical fiction set during the 1935 hurricane.

Also participating in the September 2 event was Matt Moreland, who this spring became meteorologist in charge at the Key West NWS office--which began as an observing post in 1870, the same year that the NWS was established. In a phone chat, Moreland emphasized that the placid weather of the Key West location during much of the year is counterbalanced by the location’s risk to hurricane impacts. “Something like the 1935 hurricane still represents our worst-case scenario--a hurricane going from Category 1 to Cat 5 in 36 hours,” said Moreland. “Once you get to Cat 3 or higher, there is a threat of extensive flooding for all of the islands, and portions of the Overseas Highway as well.” On any given day, about 100,000 residents and tourists are strung along the 120-mile stretch of the Keys, which have only one highway escape route. It’s estimated that a full evacuation (including residents, tourists, and those with special needs) would need to begin 84 hours in advance.


Figure 5. A couple walks hand in hand as they brave flood waters several feet deep along South Street in Key West, Florida, after Hurricane Wilma passed through in the early morning hours of October 24, 2005. Along with some wind damage, the majority of the island was indundated. Image credit: Josh Ritchie/Getty Images.

The Keys have had several close calls this century, including 2005’s Hurricane Rita, which was in the process of intensifying to a Cat 3 while crossing over the Florida Straits south of the Keys. “If the track had come 30 or 40 miles further north, the lower Keys would have seen extensive damage,” said Moreland. “That kind of track error is not uncommon at 24 hours out.” Later in 2005, Hurricane Wilma flooded more than 60% of Key West, destroyed more than 10,000 vehicles, and inflicted more than $1 billion in damage across Monroe County (which includes all of the Keys). One of Moreland’s biggest concerns is complacency, along with the high turnover of the workers that keep tourism humming along the Keys. Outreach and decision support are critical parts of the NWS/Key West mission. Moreland and colleagues work year-round to maintain close ties with a wide range of partners, including local, county, and regional emergency managers; federal entities from the Coast Guard to the Navy to the National Park Service; and the Monroe County Tourist Development Council, which provides storm updates with official NWS information to hotels and resorts. According to Moreland, these strong relationships and the office’s teamwork-oriented approach ensure that decision makers in the Keys stay vigilant against the prospect of a 1935-type storm.


Figure 6. At the September 2, 2015, commemoration of the Labor Day 1935 hurricane at the Keys History & Discovery Center: (left to right) NWS/Key West forecaster Bill Cottrill; former NHC director Max Mayfield; NWS/Key West forecaster Krizia Negron; and NWS/Key West meteorologist in charge Matt Moreland. Image credit: Courtesy Matt Moreland.


Figure 7. A visible GOES-East satellite image of highly sheared Tropical Storm Grace, collected at 1545 GMT (11:45 am EDT) on Monday, September 7, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Grace under fire; Gulf bears watching later this week
Tropical Storm Grace failed to take advantage of the usual nighttime bump in thunderstorm activity, and it appears that Grace’s window for becoming a stronger system is rapidly closing. Wind shear to Grace’s north is forcing shower and thunderstorm activity toward Grace’s south side, as was the case with Tropical Storm Erika a few days ago. As Grace continues westward through the central Atlantic, with winds of only 45 mph, it will encounter increasing westerly wind shear and relatively dry air. In its 11 am EDT update, NHC projects Grace to be a post-tropical remnant low south of Puerto Rico by Saturday. Dynamical models are in general agreement, save for the suspiciously bullish GFDL model.

A weak upper-level low and surface trough now producing scattered thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will drift slowly westward through the week, perhaps intersecting with the tail end of a cool front in the western Gulf by this weekend. The 0000 GMT Monday run of the European model suggests the possiblity of some hybrid/subtropical development this weekend in the far western Gulf, with very rich moisture surging toward the Texas/Louisiana coast, and the 1200 GMT Monday run of the GFS model shows low surface pressure taking shape in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend. We’ll have plenty of time to watch for this potential development.

In the Northeast Pacific, Hurricane Linda has surged to Category 2 intensity, with top sustained winds of 100 mph. Linda may reach Category 3 strength before a rapid decline begins, as the hurricane’s track takes it toward progressively cooler water and drier air. Dynamical models generally turn Linda westward by the weekend, although some of Linda’s moisture may stream into the southwest United States later this week. Further west, Typhoon Kilo continues its slow weakening and recurvature well east of Hawaii, while newborn Tropical Storm Etau could bring heavy rain to Japan later this week as a weak tropical storm or depression.

Have a great Labor Day, everyone!

Bob Henson


Video 1. This Miami Herald video includes compelling photos from the Labor Day hurricane of 1935, as well as new interviews with Everett Albury and Alma Pinder Dalton, who were 6 and 11 when the hurricane struck. Video credit: Jenny Staletovich/Miami Herald staff. Thanks to wunderground member barbamz for locating this video.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks bob some thing to read now


looks like some rain there for ya gro

hi res vis sat time 144 pm edt

From previous blog;

Quoting 701. aquak9:

683. WeatherLover213
5:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2015
0This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still.


not having to spend thousands of dollars to satisfy your hurricane deductible before getting any home repairs done is BORING?

oh wait, maybe you're one of those people who doesn't actively provide his/her own roof. (shrugs)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
let him mess up himself aquak ya know it will happen
Wind field maps got a nice circulation around that low in the gulf, Link

USF Buoys got a 1009.9 mb low
Link
Station Information
Station Name C13
USF Station ID C13
NDBC Station ID 42023
GOES ID 140027E0
GOES ID 140C267C
Station Type Offshore Buoy
Owned and Maintained by USF
Status Operational
Latitude 26.01 N (26° 0' 36.00" N)
Longitude 83.086 W (83° 5' 9.60" W)
Imagery ©2015 TerraMetrics
Terms of Use
Satellite
Station picture; click to enlarge.
Transmissions from this station have become intermittent. We are looking into the problem.

Description of measurements and sensor heights

Meteorological Data 09-07-2015 07:35:00 (UTC)
1 Day 5 Day
Wind Speed 5.167 (m/s) Click to view 24 hour graph Click to view 5 day graph
Wind Direction 138.548 (deg T) Click to view 24 hour graph Click to view 5 day graph
Air Temperature 28.22 (deg C) Click to view 24 hour graph Click to view 5 day graph
Relative Humidity 81.4 (%) Click to view 24 hour graph Click to view 5 day graph
Air Pressure 1009.91 (mbar) Click to view 24 hour graph Click to view 5 day graph
Water Temperature 30.5241 (deg C) Click to view 24 hour graph Click to view 5 day graph
Plots of all Meteorological Data: 1 Day or 5 Day

Another excellent book from the 1928 storm that affected the same region is called "The Black Cloud".
Quoting 2. aquak9:
<>em


What I posted was that I'll prepare if something was to but you neglected to post that too so what I have to say I pay for what I have.
Great Labor Day Hurricane History. Thanks Dr. Henson!

I will add these to it:
JOURNAL OF LIGHT STATION AT ALLIGATOR REEF
Jones A. Pervis, Keeper James O Duncan, 1st Assistant
September - 1st 1935 Quiet duty. Link
More on 1935:Link

My how the graphics have advanced:
Thanks Bob, a fitting post! Hope everyone's enjoying their Labor Day. I actually just posted a blog myself, mostly discussing our current season in relation to how its gone so far vs. expectations, and a quick look ahead. I know there's been a lot of discussion about the former topic, given how we've had several MDR storms when the MDR was supposed to be very quiet. I made a comment on the matter a few days ago but felt it was worth going into more detail on.

Link
let me pass on one more, keep- then I'll get offa the tractor.

Quoting 679. Camerooski:
I live in Fort Laud. and what scares me is that even though its an el nino and FLA won't see a hurricane. The rain and moisture is crazy. We are in a "drought" yet we have had flooding rains all week. And I have 3 leaks in my house!!!


Don't worry, it's not like you'll have to earn the money to fix them or anything.

(lmao @ getalife.com, hahaha children these days...)

thanks keep- peace
Tropical Storm Grace failed to take advantage of the usual nighttime bump in thunderstorm activity, and it appears that Grace’s window for becoming a stronger system is rapidly closing. Wind shear to Grace’s north is forcing shower and thunderstorm activity toward Grace’s south side, as was the case with Tropical Storm Erika life a few days ago. As Grace continues westward through the central Atlantic, with winds of only 45 mph, it will encounter increasing westerly wind shear and relatively dry air. In its 11 am EDT update, NHC projects Grace to be a post-tropical remnant low south of Puerto Rico by Saturday. Dynamical models are in general agreement, save for the suspiciously bullish GFDL model.

the year of 2015 tropical storms getting weak next to Puerto Rico
Quoting 5. SensesFail: about the GOM low

You're in TX, yes? the fun will be debating the 'hybrid/subtropical' nature, cross-examining the Core structure, whether it should be named, in the meantime I relish the thought of clean, ATL rain from it.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

FLZ047-053-054-059-071915-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-ST. LUCIE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
214 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ST. LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 315
PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
POINTE WEST...OR NEAR VERO BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM BAY...SEBASTIAN...VERO BEACH AND FELLSMERE.

OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
IN RURAL EASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2755 8035 2756 8034 2766 8037 2754 8035
2751 8063 2808 8122 2811 8089 2804 8058
2766 8038 2772 8039 2779 8044 2780 8044
2782 8043 2793 8051 2803 8054 2774 8038
2754 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 166DEG 6KT 2760 8048

$$

This is looking south at the bridge. The depot would have been mid-left. Long Key was more or less the center of the hurricane. No one died! -1935

Ever been to Long Key? chances are it did not look like this.
A sobering reminder to not be too disappointed when storms tank.
A reminder that recovery is also possible. ; )
Thank you. Terrible tragedy in the Keys back then..It was much worse than is explained in most of the historical archives. Very little water and food for the rescuers. Terrible heat and insects.
Thanks, Bob. Great read about a truly horrible event. Better some boring "Grace" than something like this!

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS
AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S-SW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF AND AGAIN ENHANCED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND EXPECT THE SAME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL BE DENOTED IN WEATHER
GRIDS FOR TODAY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED OVER THE NE GULF ON
SUN UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN E TO W ORIENTATED TROUGH ALONG 27N TO THE
E OF 89W TODAY. EXPECT THIS WEAK FEATURE TO DRIFT N REACHING THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND ON TUE NIGHT
AS AN
ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 27N. THE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT N ON WED AND THU WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 28N87W
ON FRI.


Link

I'm guessing it was supposed to be "Snake Creek" . 1935
Quoting 15. Starhopper:
A sobering reminder to not be too disappointed when storms tank.
A reminder that recovery is also possible. ; )


years later some maybe never
What's so interesting about these sort of storms- including the one that destroyed Galveston- is reading bout the massive changes that rippled throughout the American society afterwards. Like Veteran's Rights, after this storm. So many veterans were killed- because they were treated almost like second-class citizens back then, and no one would stand up for them. This storm, and all of the fall-out afterwards, set in motion some major changes in how we treat our veterans.

Galveston was the GOM's biggest money-maker, it's most active port- BEFORE the storm that destroyed it. (another historic storm that changed so much) It was after this storm that WOMEN started becoming more active in rebuilding communities. Why?Because it was the WOMEN who knew what each home needed- stoves, sewing machines, material, foodstuff- and they were able to get the family base to return to the area. Women were the foundation on which Galveston was able to rebuild.

So it's always interesting to read about the social changes that occur after a storm- it's not just physical landscape that changes.
What do you expect about Linda's peak intensity? comment





We're going to have to pay close attention to Africa and the GOMEX the next few weeks. The 00z ECMWF and the 12z GFS both are showing a strengthening storm in the MDR, and the 00z ECMWF showed a moderate-strong TS in the GOMEX near Texas in a similar location and direction Humberto in 2007 traveled.

Of course, I have no doubt the next run of the ECMWF will drop both here in a minute now that I've mentioned it, but still...
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



years later some maybe never

Yep. Just google-map Waveland, MS.
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



years later some maybe never
True. Life is most important. It's amazing when people rally though, the recovery possible.
Like taking a drive through Homestead/Florida City in 2000. Much different than say 93.
It may never be the same as it was fully? But is possible to have a nice one, as long as WE stay safe.
Quoting 17. barbamz:

Thanks, Bob. Great read about a truly horrible event. Better some boring "Grace" than something like this!




Great video Bar....nothing like hearing from the old Florida eyewitnesses. Very cool.
"Hurricun" : )
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



years later some maybe never


Sometimes recovery just isn't worth it. Sometimes, it is better to move.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

I'm excited, because we may actually get to the name "Joaquin" before the season is out. I was so disappointed in 2009 when we didn't make it to that name. I just want to watch some of the meteorologists botch that name on TV...
Quoting 22. pablosyn:

What do you expect about Linda's peak intensity? comment









if it can clear out the eye i see it peaking at low end cat 4 may be mid end cat 4 with 145 mph
Very fine discussion of a tragic event. Just one quibble -- in 1935 the veterans working there (paragraph 3) must have been World War One vets, who evidently had been struggling economically for 17 years by then -- that in itself is a sad commentary on our country.
Quoting 30. CaneFreeCR:

Very fine discussion of a tragic event. Just one quibble -- in 1935 the veterans working there must have been World War One vets, who evidently had been struggling economically for 17 years by then -- that in itself is a sad commentary on our country.


You're correct. The vast majority of them were WWI veterans.
There were 62 additional bodies found after Mr. Rawlins filed his report ot a total of 423; therefore, 485 was the final officially verified number - April 28, 1936. The largest change was the death of civilians was upped to 228, while the veterans were decreased to 257. More bodies and skeletons have been found in later years.
This high number of victims of a relatively sparsely populated area is of significant. It occurrence on the Labor Day week end should be considered. Many of the veterans were away and scheduling of a relief train was more difficult than normal.


RIP God bless them all. BB later.
Quoting 22. pablosyn:

What do you expect about Linda's peak intensity? comment








Its a really huge storm with very favorable conditions, everything going for RI. Though I doubt it becomes as strong as Hurricane Linda in 1997, the strongest storm in E-PAC, on record. And what a coincidence it was during the 97/98 strong El Nino year, and they both have same names. Interesting indeed.

Quoting 23. CybrTeddy:

We're going to have to pay close attention to Africa and the GOMEX the next few weeks. The 00z ECMWF and the 12z GFS both are showing a strengthening storm in the MDR, and the 00z ECMWF showed a moderate-strong TS in the GOMEX near Texas in a similar location and direction Humberto in 2007 traveled.

Of course, I have no doubt the next run of the ECMWF will drop both here in a minute now that I've mentioned it, but still...


And both are substantially weaker on this run now.

Man, the ECMWF really is terrible at being consistent with TC genesis this year.
Quoting 34. CybrTeddy:



And both are substantially weaker on this run now.

Man, the ECMWF really is terrible at being consistent with TC genesis this year.

Global models in general have been crap worldwide this year. The GFS and ECMWF have been far too bullish with several West Pacific typhoons. Meanwhile, systems that were only projected to become tropical storms in the East Pacific actually became major hurricanes. The GFS and ECMWF have been wildly inconsistent in the Atlantic. The only model I have some faith in this year is the HWRF.
Lots of thunder and lightning in Port St. Lucie, FL right now. Rain should be hitting soon. Expecting it to be heavy. Great day to be home and snuggled down watching The Librarians marathon and checking up on the tropics.
Quoting 35. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Global models in general have been crap worldwide this year. The GFS and ECMWF have been far too bullish with several West Pacific typhoons. Meanwhile, systems that were only projected to become tropical storms in the East Pacific actually became major hurricanes. The GFS and ECMWF have been wildly inconsistent in the Atlantic. The only model I have some faith in this year is the HWRF.
Hello 13..The models are least accurate with tropical cyclones and more with baroclinic systems. The models did not do badly with stronger tropical cyclones..jmo
Thanks, BOB
Quoting 34. CybrTeddy:



And, of course, both are substantially weaker on this run now.

Man, the ECMWF really is terrible at being consistent with TC genesis this year.
Till the 240...

Quoting 35. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Global models in general have been crap worldwide this year. The GFS and ECMWF have been far too bullish with several West Pacific typhoons. Meanwhile, systems that were only projected to become tropical storms in the East Pacific actually became major hurricanes. The GFS and ECMWF have been wildly inconsistent in the Atlantic. The only model I have some faith in this year is the HWRF.


Well, the takeaway point should be the models are showing some possibility of conditions coming together that might support out in the MDR and GOMEX in the next 8-10 days (ECMWF actually does still show GOMEX development, although it's a radically different looking system this run-- broad 1004mb low).
41. SLU
This throwback to the 1935 season reminded me that we didn't have satellites back then. I bet a storm like Grace would've been missed unless a ship sailing through the area found it. And even if a ship found a weak system like Grace they may still not have classified it unless they went through the center of the storm and found the small area of gales there. Were there many ships that traveled through the tropical waters between Africa and the Caribbean back then?

That's why I wouldn't trust the counts of number of storms in each season prior to the satellite era. Maybe ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) would be a better estimate of what happened before the satellite era, because its much more likely that a strong storm would've been found in the ocean before the satellite era as opposed to a weak one like Grace. But even when looking at ACE, I still wonder if some strong storms that stayed out at sea were missed before the satellite era...
Quoting 42. NCHurricane2009:

This throwback to the 1935 season reminded me that we didn't have satellites back then. I bet a storm like Grace would've been missed unless a ship sailing through the area found it. And even if a ship found a weak system like Grace they may still not have classified it unless they went through the center of the storm and found the small area of gales there. Were there many ships that traveled through the tropical waters between Africa and the Caribbean back then?

That's why I wouldn't trust the counts of number of storms in each season prior to the satellite era. Maybe ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) would be a better estimate of what happened before the satellite era, because its much more likely that a strong storm would've been found in the ocean before the satellite era as opposed to a weak one like Grace. But even when looking at ACE, I still wonder if some strong storms that stayed out at sea were missed before the satellite era...


More than certain.
Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Looks like it is starting to die
Quoting 45. FunnelVortex:



Looks like it is starting to die
not along the east side just getting going
Quoting 45. FunnelVortex:



Looks like it is starting to die
maybe invest 92L soon
it would be an amazing Grace is she can fight the odds and spring a surprise
Quoting 45. FunnelVortex:



Looks like it is starting to die


Just a convective minimum. Weak systems can only produce convection for so long continuously before the atmosphere has to "recharge". It's an important principle of thermodynamics in meteorology.
Quoting 31. CybrTeddy:



You're correct. The vast majority of them were WWI veterans.


Absolutely! The WWII reference was my typo, now fixed.

--Bob
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not along the east side just getting going


Still raining here, Keeper.
jus' sayin'..........

:):))
Quoting 52. pottery:



Still raining here, Keeper.
jus' sayin'..........

:):))
dam forgot the tap again i'll turn it off as soon as I am done here
Quoting 35. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Global models in general have been crap worldwide this year. The GFS and ECMWF have been far too bullish with several West Pacific typhoons. Meanwhile, systems that were only projected to become tropical storms in the East Pacific actually became major hurricanes. The GFS and ECMWF have been wildly inconsistent in the Atlantic. The only model I have some faith in this year is the HWRF.


The ECMWF actually handled Erika quite well. It consistently stayed south of the model consensus, showed the toll that island interaction would take, and kept Erika as a weak low moving into the eastern GOM.
Quoting 37. hydrus:

Hello 13..The models are least accurate with tropical cyclones and more with baroclinic systems. The models did not do badly with stronger tropical cyclones..jmo


Yep, it's because the boundary layer and below, i.e. the low levels are more complex and less uniform than the upper levels, which is why global models can't accurately represent convective events. Tropical cyclones start out shallow and become deeper with height as they intensify, so their steering becomes more based on higher levels, which global model programming can handle better. The other issue is R.I. phases, or just intensity in general.Since intensity impacts steering of the TC, and intensity is still very difficult to predict, forecast paths can still sometimes miss the mark by a large margin if the intensity forecast is poor enough.
Quoting 40. CybrTeddy:



Well, the takeaway point should be the models are showing some possibility of conditions coming together that might support out in the MDR and GOMEX in the next 8-10 days (ECMWF actually does still show GOMEX development, although it's a radically different looking system this run-- broad 1004mb low).


Looks like maybe the SWGOM system on EURO was battling the EPAC system some this run? Delayed it enough for upper levels to change head more east? Or I'm completely wrong. Both scenarios we've seen before. :) I've also noticed the GFS has seemed to play catch up to the EURO a lot, tropically, this season. For what that's worth. Will further GFS runs now show what EURO shows? We shall see.
Bob Henson,
Great Story. Great writing.

Some would say Our Lady of Lourdes protected Key West in 1935. Click and drag around for a 360 view of the Grotto at Key West. I learned about this grotto from Doc M in 2005 - probably in a Storm Rita blog.

(Neat site... 360cities.com... new to me. Out of Czechoslovakia, apparently)
that tiny little swirl moving into the leewards is interesting vis.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF LATEST MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR
27N88W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT
THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS AT 28N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
ZONES WITH THE ACTIVITY CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AS IT ROTATES IN A BROAD CYCLONIC
FASHION AROUND THE LOW. A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENERALLY
GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION IN CYCLONIC FORM
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...IN THE 1-2
FT RANGE. THE 1012 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT N WHILE WEAKENING
TO A TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUE MORNING. ATLC
HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 27N
BEGINNING ON TUE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO ALONG 28N ON
FRI WITH A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 28N87W. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK TO THE W ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING TUE AND THROUGH SAT WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-2 FT
RANGE.

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF
WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W DURING THE
EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING
THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 10-15
KT NOCTURNAL EVENTS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AT NIGHT BEGINNING ON WED.

Nothing to see here...move along....
Quoting 53. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

dam forgot the tap again i'll turn it off as soon as I am done here

Hmmmm... sounds a bit Vague, to me !

And it's Election Day here.
Thunder and Lightening, with heavy rains in some parts.
Signs and Portents ????
should be done soon if not already

Someone posted the 06Z NAVGEM so I felt compelled to post the 12Z cuz it's just as obscene (probly)
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 51. BobHenson:



Absolutely! The WWII reference was my typo, now fixed.

--Bob
LOL. Please ignore my just sent wu mail.
;)
Quoting 35. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Global models in general have been crap worldwide this year. The GFS and ECMWF have been far too bullish with several West Pacific typhoons. Meanwhile, systems that were only projected to become tropical storms in the East Pacific actually became major hurricanes. The GFS and ECMWF have been wildly inconsistent in the Atlantic. The only model I have some faith in this year is the HWRF.


Well, at least we know we really don't need models for the Atlantic Basin, specifically, the Caribbean. All we need are two eyes to know that it's death out there for TC survival.
Quoting 61. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

should be done soon if not already



Yes indeed.
Thanks again for your timely Intervention....

:):))

Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 071433
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015

Linda continues to gain strength. The cloud pattern consists of a
well organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops and
curved bands spiraling around it. There is no eye feature evident
in satellite images, but a recent SSMIS microwave pass did indicate
that an eye was present. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support raising the
initial intensity to 85 kt, making Linda a category 2 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The rate of intensification
of Linda has been an impressive 45 kt over the past 24 hours.

The hurricane remains in a moist and relatively low wind shear
environment and over 28-29 deg C waters. These favorable
conditions should allow Linda to strengthen some more today, and it
could reach major hurricane status by tonight. After that time, the
waters begin to cool beneath the storm and environmental relative
humidity values decrease. These more stable conditions should
induce a weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to become a
remnant low in 4-5 days when it moves over sea surface temperatures
of around 24 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above
the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the intensity
model consensus thereafter.

Linda has been on a steady northwestward track at about 12 kt for
the past 12-24 hours, steered by a mid-level high centered over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. This motion is
expected to continue for about another day as the steering pattern
is maintained. After that time, the storm is expected to
decelerate, as the high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn
gradually westward once it becomes a shallow system by the end of
the forecast period. The model guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous
track forecast.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 20.8N 114.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 22.2N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 23.6N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 25.7N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 26.1N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 6m6 minutes ago

Watching area near 30.8N 60.6W for tropical development [Invest 92L]: winds 15 mph moving ESE at 4 mph http://wxug.us/1q13a #hurricane
1 retweet 0 favorites
Quoting 65. pottery:


Yes indeed.
Thanks again for your timely Intervention....

:):))
tree get enough water now


dry air and wind shear hit this tropical storm hard
While I was checking twitter to get the latest of the torrential rains which are threatening Spain right now - in case you've missed the post at the end of the last blog: here is a good summary with the most impressive video of the wild flashflood in a southeastern town: VIDEO SPECIAL: Hell and high water as shocking floods leave deaths in Andalucia - I repeatedly got news about the threat of serious rains from hurricane Linda all along the western coast of Central America and Mexico.
Here a video with the forecast. Although it's Spanish you'll get the picture:



Edit: Now a total of two deaths is reported from Spain due to the floods (in the province of Granada). Hope our PlazaRed in southern Spain is well!


Circulation with the rains in Spain in the lower left corner (saved current loop).
Quoting 67. AtHomeInTX:

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 6m6 minutes ago

Watching area near 30.8N 60.6W for tropical development [Invest 92L]: winds 15 mph moving ESE at 4 mph http://wxug.us/1q13a #hurricane
1 retweet 0 favorites



Why does it suggest Invest 92L? There is no such designation right now
Quoting 54. SavannahStorm:



The ECMWF actually handled Erika quite well. It consistently stayed south of the model consensus, showed the toll that island interaction would take, and kept Erika as a weak low moving into the eastern GOM.

Consistently? No. It showed a Category 4 hurricane recurving east of the United States for a few runs, and a strong tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane hitting Florida for a few runs. The GFS started unenthused with Erika, then switched to showing a Category 4 hurricane either hitting or passing just offshore the United States, then switched to showing a weak low in the Gulf. Neither can claim victory.
Quoting 71. Hurricanes101:



Why does it suggest Invest 92L? There is no such designation right now


DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922015) 20150907 1800 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 31.0N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 62.5W
WNDCUR = 15KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Link
Quoting 54. SavannahStorm:



The ECMWF actually handled Erika quite well. It consistently stayed south of the model consensus, showed the toll that island interaction would take, and kept Erika as a weak low moving into the eastern GOM.


The ECMWF was flipping back and forth with nearly every model run. So the runs that showed what ended up happening with Erika were right, but there were just as many runs that blew the system up and took it north of the Islands
Quoting 71. Hurricanes101:



Why does it suggest Invest 92L? There is no such designation right now


I'm not sure. Surprised me too.
Quoting 73. nrtiwlnvragn:



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922015) 20150907 1800 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 31.0N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 62.5W
WNDCUR = 15KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Link


Interesting, that could be Henri as these kinds of systems tend to sneak up and develop quickly
swirl alert issued
done a full strip down

Quoting 71. Hurricanes101:



Why does it suggest Invest 92L? There is no such designation right now



here the two for all oh missed it

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
leftovers of erica 30n 60w?
Quoting 73. nrtiwlnvragn:



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922015) 20150907 1800 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 31.0N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 62.5W
WNDCUR = 15KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Link


Thanks nrt. :)
Quoting 78. Tazmanian:




here the two for all oh missed it

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent


Only highlights the Eastern Gulf, says nothing of what is near Bermuda. We should see that at 8pm
Quoting 78. Tazmanian:




here the two for all oh missed it

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent


But that isn't the newly designated 92L. The new one is something that just popped up. Perhaps Erika's wayward remains.
Quoting 79. islander101010:

leftovers of erica 30n 60w?


your too funny erica is long gone


i i think 92L is off the FL cost in the gulf
Quoting 82. LostTomorrows:



But that isn't the newly designated 92L. The new one is something that just popped up. Perhaps Erika's wayward remains.


Oh gosh, it better not be.


am wounder if this is a mistake i dont see 92L on the ftp site nor do i see it on the navy site
Quoting 83. Tazmanian:



your too funny erica is long gone


i i think 92L is off the FL cost in the gulf


Not unless the latitude and longitude of Florida has shifted dramatically and is now east of Bermuda.
Quoting 83. Tazmanian:



your too funny erica is long gone


i i think 92L is off the FL cost in the gulf


coordinates show it near Bermuda
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport


Temperature:

92.3°F

Dewpoint:

67.1°F

Humidity:

43%

Wind:

WSW 17 gust 23 mph

Humidex:

105
Quoting 84. CybrTeddy:



Oh gosh, it better not be.





Actually I wonder if that's what was the hurricane near the Azores you posted yesterday was actually going to be. Considering Fred is dead.
Quoting 87. Hurricanes101:



coordinates show it near Bermuda


Ok then will what do model show with it
Quoting 89. LostTomorrows:



Actually I wonder if that's what was the hurricane near the Azores you posted yesterday was actually going to be. Considering Fred is dead.


Oh no, that was 100% Fred. GFS dropped it, obviously, but Fred managed to do a huge 360 south of the Azores before redeveloping into a hurricane. You could track its surface low on that particular run and watch it do it.
yesterday the canad. took 92 wnw for a few days then out to sea
Quoting 89. LostTomorrows:



Actually I wonder if that's what was the hurricane near the Azores you posted yesterday was actually going to be. Considering Fred is dead.


I would think an Erika remnant would be more likely found at the 30/60 than near FL right now. The mets are only mentioning the GOM because the models are forcing them to.. and having to prognosticate about cut-off lows meeting up with stuff, etc.
Quoting 54. SavannahStorm:



The ECMWF actually handled Erika quite well. It consistently stayed south of the model consensus, showed the toll that island interaction would take, and kept Erika as a weak low moving into the eastern GOM.
I sometimes wonder if we just don't have too many models. Back in the antediluvian days when I first started watching hurricanes, there were a few statistical models and nothing else. I think the MFM and the BAM suite came along about the same time in the late 1970's. Along with the GFDL, they were about it when it came to any kind of dynamical models. The big limitation was the lack of computing power to run any of those models in near real time. The big advantage of the BAM suite is that it could be run and be current within three or four hours of initialization (!). The GFDL, if I remember right, took almost 24 hours. Now we have no lack of models, and computer processing time is being reduced to minutes, or even seconds in some cases. We can look at places like WU or or any of the hundreds of model sites on the web and see runs for dozens of models. We now get worked up if they are five or ten minutes late. There are now models from the US, Canada, Europe, Japan, and even China. Each year, new or revised models bubble to the surface as the next "Big Thing" in hurricane forecasting. As I've seen over and over again here, our ability to get models and post them far exceeds our ability to understand what we're posting. Many people have now started to model shop. If the Euro doesn't show what you want, use the GFS...or the NAM...or the HRRR....or HWRF. To the average person, one is pretty much the same is the next, and they just wait for a TV met to explain things to them. We are spending horrendous amounts of money worldwide to develop new and improved models, but no country or group of countries will ever have all the money they need to really refine one model to be consistently the best. I have no doubt that, next hurricane season, we'll repeat the process all over again.

I don't want to sound like an old geezer, although I'm sure I do, but we have come almost full circle in my lifetime. We started with very few or no predictive models, and now we're drowning in them. I wouldn't want to go back to the days of the MFM, listening to updates and observations through the static on my shortwave radio, and hauling out the grease pencils and plastic covered maps. I'm not sure the path we're on now is leading to better results compared to what we could have either. Maybe some day the pendulum will finally swing back toward the middle. I'll be fertilizer by then, but at least if gives you young people something to look forward to...maybe.


That cyclone-looking thingy at the Eastern edge of the map.
Quoting 70. barbamz:

While I was checking twitter to get the latest of the torrential rains which are threatening Spain right now - in case you've missed the post at the end of the last blog: here is a good summary with the most impressive video of the wild flashflood in a southeastern town: VIDEO SPECIAL: Hell and high water as shocking floods leave deaths in Andalucia - I repeatedly got news about the threat of serious rains from hurricane Linda all along the eastern coast of Central America and Mexico.
Here a video with the forecast. Although it's Spanish you'll get the picture:



Edit: Now a total of two deaths is reported from Spain due to the floods (in the province of Granada). Hope our PlazaRed in southern Spain is well!


Circulation with the rains in Spain in the lower left corner (saved current loop).

Thanks for posting that video Barb, I was wondering how to post it myself.
There is another with a massive flash flood raging into the sea where unfortunately somebody got killed.

The video is from a town called Adra along the coast from me between Motril and Almeria, about 150 miles from me, its a town with almost no vegetation and very high mountains up to 10,000 ft nearby know here as the Sierra Nevada.
The town has thousands of terraces covered with plastic under which most of Europe's soft vegetables are grown in the winter.
Its easy to see the devastation which a massive thunderstorm would cause. Strangely enough I was there a few weeks ago thinking about thunder storms!

Here in my village we had a brief thunder storm with maybe about an inch of rain but also hailstones of about an inch in diameter.
Back to sunshine tomorrow.
Grace is just agonizing right now. It seems this storm could die soon.


Convection has weaned , but overall structure of Grace looks improved from this morning
Quoting 94. sar2401:


[snip] I don't want to sound like an old geezer, although I'm sure I do, but we have come almost full circle in my lifetime. We started with very few or no predictive models, and now we're drowning in them. I wouldn't want to go back to the days of the MFM, listening to updates and observations through the static on my shortwave radio, and hauling out the grease pencils and plastic covered maps. I'm not sure the path we're on now is leading to better results compared to what we could have either. Maybe some day the pendulum will finally swing back toward the middle. I'll be fertilizer by then, but at least if gives you young people something to look forward to...maybe.

Yes, you do, Sar :-)) - My take on it: models will further improve although GW with its unmapped territory won't make it easy. But all their abilities depend on electricity. If once a breakdown happen (due to a strong eruption of the sun or something else catastrophic) we'll be much, much more helpless than our predecessors. Even "sticking a wet finger in the air to find out from where the wind blows" might be a rare skill in the future, lol.


This broad TWave is probably what the models are getting worked up about for GOM.
Quoting 75. AtHomeInTX:



I'm not sure. Surprised me too.
It's the blob in the top center of this picture. There was a low at the eastern end of the large trough that ex-Erika wandered around in, and it has now moved toward Bermuda. That low was there before Erika - it just hadn't moved much. It's not in a bad spot for some modest development over the next couple of days and, being relatively close to Bermuda, I wondered if that one was going to become an invest.


103. JLPR2
Considering its present status it's impressive that Grace's circulation is this well aligned.


How did 92L get designated without a blob alert from Grothar?
Quoting 104. Bucsboltsfan:

How did 92L get designated without a blob alert from Grothar?


Dang...I was coming on here to issue a blob alert near Bermuda too! And suddenly I see its already 92L...amazing!
Quoting 96. PlazaRed:


Thanks for posting that video Barb, I was wondering how to post it myself.
There is another with a massive flash flood raging into the sea where unfortunately somebody got killed.

The video is from a town called Adra along the coast from me between Motril and Almeria, about 150 miles from me, its a town with almost no vegetation and very high mountains up to 10,000 ft nearby know here as the Sierra Nevada.
The town has thousands of terraces covered with plastic under which most of Europe's soft vegetables are grown in the winter.
Its easy to see the devastation which a massive thunderstorm would cause. Strangely enough I was there a few weeks ago thinking about thunder storms!

Here in my village we had a brief thunder storm with maybe about an inch of rain but also hailstones of about an inch in diameter.
Back to sunshine tomorrow.

This one (first part), Plaza? I'm glad you are okay.


Edit: I'd take your inch of rain any time in our drought! But keep the hail, uuh!
Quoting 100. barbamz:


Yes, you do, Sar :-)) - My take on it: models will further improve although GW with its unmapped territory won't make it easy. But all their abilities depend on electricity. If once a breakdown happen (due to a strong eruption of the sun or something else catastrophic) we'll be much, much more helpless than our predecessors. Even "sticking a wet finger in the air to find out from where the wind blows" might be a rare skill in the future, lol.
Maybe we old geezers recognize that the whole system is a lot more fragile than what most people realize. As long as shortwave radio still works, and as long as observations from ships at sea can still come in, the grease pencil can still give us enough data to have some idea what might be headed toward us. Even the 1935 hurricane was predicted a day in advance with such technology. I don't know what happens when all the people like me who used to do such things are gone though.
With this Super El Nino event in full swing, it looks like we in Charleston, SC could be in for a very wet, cold winter. Ice storms appear more likely, with even a decent chance at measurable snowfall. We'd love to wake up to a snowstorm.
You know a storm is poorly organized when...

"In fact, if the convection does
not make a comeback soon, the system will be too weak to classify
using the Dvorak technique."
Quoting 104. Bucsboltsfan:

How did 92L get designated without a blob alert from Grothar?



please stop with that blob alert stuff
111. beell
Quoting 105. NCHurricane2009:



Dang...I was coming on here to issue a blob alert near Bermuda too! And suddenly I see its already 92L...amazing!


I was talking to my dog last night about that very same area! She was not impressed so I kept quiet.
Dang! I coulda' been a blog hero!
;-)


Tropical Storm Grace R.I.P. Let us all now bow our heads, hold hands and say grace.
Quoting 99. stormpetrol:



Convection has weaned , but overall structure of Grace looks improved from this morning


We will see how DMAX goes
lookes like grace is well under way too dissipate and it looks like it could degeneration in too a open wave or open low at any time hey is that a pine hole eye i see?

blob alert team failed. nhc beat them to the draw. its been a long nail picking season.
Thank you Bob Henson for this good history lesson. I've lived in the West Palm Beach area since 1959 and have always heard about two devastating hurricanes... the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 that you just reviewed, and the 1928 hurricane where lake Okeechobee dyke broke. It's good that we review history so we don't repeat it. Thanks.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N85W.
ALOFT...A BROAD ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
EXTENDS E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W AND EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY E OF 93W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WITH CONVECTION.

2pm TWD.
National Hurricane Center is already calling the area in the Gulf, Disturbance #1 and has no reference to 92L. I've noticed the tropical weather map has not been updated very well in the last few weeks. I've had to use the NHC. What's going on?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 111. beell:



I was talking to my dog last night about that very same area! She was not impressed so I kept quiet.
Dang! I coulda' been a blog hero!
;-)


Can the Bermuda High be all that high if it can permit/spin up a cyclone so quick? Think it was an especially pernicious Erika remnant we lost track of?
Quoting 107. sar2401:

Maybe we old geezers recognize that the whole system is a lot more fragile than what most people realize. As long as shortwave radio still works, and as long as observations from ships at sea can still come in, the grease pencil can still give us enough data to have some idea what might be headed toward us. Even the 1935 hurricane was predicted a day in advance with such technology. I don't know what happens when all the people like me who used to do such things are gone though.


I miss Nash Roberts, the old Met from WWL in New Orleans. He still used charts and grease pencil when more
advanced technology was available. People felt more confident when he gave his take on things.
121. beell
92L as defined by the 2:05PM EDT TWD.

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH BASE REACHING NEARLY 30N
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 30N46W THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT ON ACROSS THE WATERS N OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

A curvilinear stripe of weak vorticity along the stationary boundary.


Nash Roberts

I know people are excited about 92L but the GOM low is killing us in Gainesville right now. I am worried about flooding.
Quoting 110. Tazmanian:




please stop with that blob alert stuff


Having a bad Labor Day?
Wrong comment - deleted
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:



If my memory serves me, I believe Gro did mention the development in the GOM and Florida going back at least a day or two.

92L isnt in the GOM
So the NHC doesn't mention 92L



But it mentions this?

129. beell
Quoting 119. redwagon:



Can the Bermuda High be all that high if it can permit/spin up a cyclone so quick? Think it was an especially pernicious Erika remnant we lost track of?


Just a very nice shear axis along a stationary boundary.

Check out the opposing motions of the low clouds on either side of 92L.



Something like this...



A butterfly farted and a pertubation was born.

Quoting 123. gator23:

I know people are excited about 92L but the GOM low is killing us in Gainesville right now. I am worried about flooding.


Excited? half of us still think 92L is the GOM low that's killing you! Understandably, Bermuda is the last place people look to for cyclogenesis. Even got its own floater, so someone must be concerned. Hard part will be convincing Gro we never saw it until he wakes up and issues a blob alert: heads are gonna roll at NHC over this.
For a change, some (bad) Asian monsoon news with numbers we're usually not used to:

Over 1.5 million people hit by floods in Assam
By Biswajyoti Das, Mon Sep 7, 2015 9:12pm IST
GUWAHATI, India (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Authorities in Assam are struggling to respond to massive floods which have affected more than 1.5 million people and forced more than 200,000 people to seek refuge in relief camps, senior government officials said on Monday.
Heavy monsoon rains in the tea and oil-rich state have caused burgeoning rivers, including the mighty Brahmaputra, to burst their banks, killing more than 50 people this year, including 15 people in the past week.
Assam's Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said the state was unable to provide adequate assistance to flood-hit villagers as it did not have enough resources and called on the federal government in New Delhi for more support. ...


Have to go. Wish you a peaceful Labour Day evening!
Quoting 130. redwagon:



Excited? half of us still think 92L is the GOM low that's killing you! Understandably, Bermuda is the last place people look to for cyclogenesis. Even got its own floater, so someone must be concerned. Hard part will be convincing Gro we never saw it until he wakes up and issues a blob alert: heads are gonna roll at NHC over this.

fair enough. clearly there is some confusion.
Quoting 122. Patrap:

Nash Roberts




A nice Blast from our past when we still had real Weathermen on most of our local stations nationwide giving us accurate weather information instead of the Playboy Bunnies who are more concerned with showing the viewers at home what their legs look like and knowing very little if anything of what they are talking about.
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:



If my memory serves me, I believe Gro did mention the development in the GOM and Florida going back at least a day or two.


But 92L isn't in the GOM
Quoting 127. gator23:


92L isnt in the GOM


Corrected - that's what talking to your girlfriend for a few hours does to your brain.
Quoting 135. Sfloridacat5:



Corrected - that's what talking to your girlfriend for a few hours does to your brain.


Lol...
Quoting 107. sar2401:

Maybe we old geezers recognize that the whole system is a lot more fragile than what most people realize. As long as shortwave radio still works, and as long as observations from ships at sea can still come in, the grease pencil can still give us enough data to have some idea what might be headed toward us. Even the 1935 hurricane was predicted a day in advance with such technology. I don't know what happens when all the people like me who used to do such things are gone though.
But save your boat anchor radios -- if the Sun kicks out a Carrington event, the transistors may all be fried. Weather forecasting will take a BIG hit, though -- even without reliance on satellites, the reports from ships at sea and air flights will still need working radios. It's gonna be ... interesting.
NOAA charts (the ones I just looked at on their site) take the Low in the GOM and drift it northward until it dissipates into the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
But those charts change almost as much as the models.
Quoting 108. nash36:

With this Super El Nino event in full swing, it looks like we in Charleston, SC could be in for a very wet, cold winter. Ice storms appear more likely, with even a decent chance at measurable snowfall. We'd love to wake up to a snowstorm.

Nearly impossible to think about, sitting here in North Texas, with our second consecutive day of 100 degrees.
Quoting 130. redwagon:



Excited? half of us still think 92L is the GOM low that's killing you! Understandably, Bermuda is the last place people look to for cyclogenesis. Even got its own floater, so someone must be concerned. Hard part will be convincing Gro we never saw it until he wakes up and issues a blob alert: heads are gonna roll at NHC over this.


If you read back a few days, I wrote to look for development off the east coast and the Gulf of Mexico. But no one ever listens. :):)

Just for that no more blob alerts!!
TS Grace in 2009 formed in a similar way to 92L, the NHC realized there was basically a tropical storm in the Atlantic and issued a 90% chance of formation 3 hours before TS Grace formed. That storm caught my by surprise but fortunately it didn't hit anywhere
Quoting 135. Sfloridacat5:



Corrected - that's what talking to your girlfriend for a few hours does to your brain.


Just imagine what 42 years of marriage can do.
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:

Wrong comment - deleted



Put it back up, you were right :)
Quoting 97. juracanpr1:

Grace is just agonizing right now. It seems this storm could die soon.
Juracan no storm party this time. El Nino saved Puerto Rico this year. Next year I'm not so sure.
Quoting 140. DFWdad:


Nearly impossible to think about, sitting here in North Texas, with our second consecutive day of 100 degrees.


Just vaulted in from steak-flippin': 103.6 'feels like' 114. No clouds. Or breeze. Centex, Lake Travis.
We had deviled eggs steak,fried chicken,oreo pie,hot dog and hamburgers.Salad and veggies for the ones watching their weight :).Has anyone done something with their family today?
Does anyone else have a hard time believing that the 1935 Hurricane rode right up the back of the Appalachian Mountains for 2-3 days, remained a tropical storm the entire time, and strengthened almost immediately back into a hurricane as soon as it hit the water off VA?

Also, I doubt that it went from TS at 75w to Cat 5 at 80w. I dont doubt that it was a Cat 5 when it hit the Keys, but I think that the intensity track is significantly off. Unless it was CRAWLING... Like, under 3mph forward speed.
It doesnt look like the mischief in the Gulf Of Mexico is finished just yet. Just North of The Yucatan Peninsula there looks to be some funnybusines.

Link
Quoting 123. gator23:

I know people are excited about 92L but the GOM low is killing us in Gainesville right now. I am worried about flooding.
yes you have a new warning there...............Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
536 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

FLZ022-030>032-036-037-072230-
ALACHUA FL-BRADFORD FL-CLAY FL-UNION FL-COLUMBIA FL-PUTNAM FL-
536 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNION...BRADFORD...CLAY...
SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND NORTHERN ALACHUA
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 535 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GEORGE`S LAKE TO
ALACHUA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...STARKE...LAKE BUTLER...KEYSTONE
HEIGHTS...RAIFORD...MIDDLEBURG...WORTHINGTON SPRING...ALACHUA...HIGH
SPRINGS...WORTHINGTON SPRINGS...GEORGE`S LAKE...GROVES...LAKE
GENEVA...UPLAND PINES...PALESTINE COMMUNITY...LAKESIDE...
PROVIDENCE...KINGSLEY AND CAMP BLANDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

Quoting 150. washingtonian115:

We had deviled eggs steak,fried chicken,oreo pie,hot dog and hamburgers.Salad and veggies for the ones watching their weight :).Has anyone done something with their family today?
Yummm deviled eggs are soo good. I barbecued some pork chops and sweet n spicy Italian sausages. It's just me and my roommate alone. Can't wait for Thanksgiving that's when I go ham for Turkey. :P




Old Highway 1 Mile Marker 81.5 (Gulf side)Islamorada Library and ParkIslamorada, FL 330361935 Labor Day Hurricane MemorialThe library was constructed as a Hurricane Refugee School in 1937 after the hurricane. During construction, the Florida Keys Hurricane Memorial was dedicated at marker 81.1.

As expected, we can say bye bye to Grace. RIP (not dead yet but soon it will die)
boooo...

Lake Charles

WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF SOUTH OF
PENSACOLA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND LOOKS TO
OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SAME TIME LOOKING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TO DROP DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH TEXAS/ARKANSAS AREA. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO POOL OVER THE REGION WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPS. ONCE THE
RAINS BEGIN THE CHANCES FOR MORE RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COOL FRONT THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH DOWN
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WILL GET HUNG UP
TO THE NORTH.
My cruise leaves out of Port next Sunday from out of Baltimore and we should be in Miami on late Monday night or early Tuesday if everything goes as planned.Hope no storm ruins the fun but thanks to the wall of shear that has been guarding the Caribbean I'll probably have nothing to worry about.Then next is the Bahamas!
When I went to the floater of Grace and saw how terrible she looked, I almost laughed! I predicted earlier today on the previous blog that I didn't think she would last past Tuesday, probably sooner now that I think about it, and I think that's going to pan out. Who else agrees?
we have invest 92L but NOT IN THE GOM


invest 92L looking better then tropical storm right now!!

I think we will get Tropical storm Henri from 92L..Seems to be organizing and that means that dun dun duuun the "I" storm could be the gulf system that the models develop.
Why isn't 92L up on NHC?

bye grace

Have you guys seen this article?

http://news.yahoo.com/study-shifting-fewer-weaker -atlantic-hurricanes-150345963.html
Quoting 159. weatherbda:

When I went to the floater of Grace and saw how terrible she looked, I almost laughed! I predicted earlier today on the previous blog that I didn't think she would last past Tuesday, probably sooner now that I think about it, and I think that's going to pan out. Who else agrees?

Yesterday I was thinking dead by Wednesday. Now for sure the final NHC advisory will be coming by tomorrow (Tuesday). I agree. Guess it's time to move on to 92L, the GOM activity, and look for other waves to roll off of Africa in the coming days.
Quoting 157. AtHome A COOL FRONT THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THe REGION ON FRIDAY IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WILL GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH.

Hung up? In what? A last-minute tailgate party? Road closure? Jury duty? Our *sanity* has been depending on that cold front. Our local guys aren't brave enough to mention dropping it. Great 'guidance'.

Oh: This *just* added to 'scientific' discussion:

Saturday through Monday...the models have remained consistent in
their inconsistency. A middle/upper level trough/low develops over
Texas and/or northeastern Mexico depending on the model run.
Quoting 169. redwagon:

Quoting 157. AtHome A COOL FRONT THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THe REGION ON FRIDAY IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WILL GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH.

Hung up? In what? A last-minute tailgate party? Road closure? Jury duty? Our *sanity* has been depending on that cold front. Our local guys aren't brave enough to mention dropping it. Great 'guidance'.


Hang in there Red. :) It may get to you and not me down by the coast?
Quoting 122. Patrap:

Nash Roberts




HUGE A-MEN to that
Quoting 165. weatherbda:

Why isn't 92L up on NHC?



you wont see 92L on the nhc site you see it on the navy site
Let's see..2 storms have already formed in September with the models indicating that the MDR could still produce at least two storms (the waves have been very healthy so I'm going to go out on a limb and say 3) a gulf system and 92L looks to be on the verge of T.D status.If we end up having 6-7 named storms this month I will laugh as that was about 3/4 of what was predicted for the entire season.Nature really does have the last word rather than seasonal forecast.October even in El nino years needs to be watched and this is exactly why I didn't make a seasonal prediction with some predicting 4 storms for the entire 6 month period.12 storms is a good bet which isn't bad considering how hostile the environment has been with a strong El nino in place.
Quoting 167. saltydog1327:

Have you guys seen this article?

http://news.yahoo.com/study-shifting-fewer-weaker -atlantic-hurricanes-150345963.html

I just read this article. Kinda sounds like they are talking about the multi-decadal oscillation in Atlantic hurricane activity that switches roughly every 20 years (driven by fluctuations in Atlantic sea-surface temps going from warm to cooler and then back to warmer). Supposedly the current active phase started in 1995. Do the math, and we are about to switch back to the quieter side of things again.

I think our previous active periods were in the 1920s and 1930s (which produced storms like the 1935 Labor Day hurricane), 1960s and 1970s (some infamous storms included Donna in 1960 or Camille in 1969), and then perhaps 1995 to 2012-ish.

But that doesn't mean there can't be infamous storms in the quiet periods either, it only takes one bad storm to make it a memorable season (for example Andrew 1992). So hurricane prone areas should always be hurricane aware....
Quoting 173. washingtonian115:

Let's see..2 storms have already formed in September with the models indicating that the MDR could still produce at least two storms (the waves have been very healthy so I'm going to go out on a limb and say 3) a gulf system and 92L looks to be on the verge of T.D status.If we end up having 6-7 named storms this month I will laugh as that was about 3/4 of what was predicted for the entire season.Nature really does have the last word rather than seasonal forecast.October even in El nino years needs to be watched and this is exactly why I didn't make a seasonal prediction with some predicting 4 storms for the entire 6 month period.12 storms is a good bet which isn't bad considering how hostile the environment has been with a strong El nino in place.

Not a big fan of seasonal forecasts personally.... Too many factors to consider and saying below average, especially in public, can make the public think that there is no point in being prepared.
Which one is the tropical cyclone again?

Quoting 173. washingtonian115:

Let's see..2 storms have already formed in September with the models indicating that the MDR could still produce at least two storms (the waves have been very healthy so I'm going to go out on a limb and say 3) a gulf system and 92L looks to be on the verge of T.D status.If we end up having 6-7 named storms this month I will laugh as that was about 3/4 of what was predicted for the entire season.Nature really does have the last word rather than seasonal forecast.October even in El nino years needs to be watched and this is exactly why I didn't make a seasonal prediction with some predicting 4 storms for the entire 6 month period.12 storms is a good bet which isn't bad considering how hostile the environment has been with a strong El nino in place.

I'd agree with you, except that this year's storms (with the exception of maybe Danny) were really not that impressive from an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) perspective. If you look at it from that perspective, to date we are below average from a typical Atlantic season. I'm starting to think seasonal forecasts should move away from predicting numbers of storms, and instead focus on a single number, the ACE. Its one thing if you've had 7 tropical storms. Its another if you have 7 hurricanes or 7 major hurricanes.
Quoting 176. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which one is the tropical cyclone again?





i would say grace has dissipate tonight
BTW Bob Henson. GREAT BLOG POST! This is history weather and a great find on the oltimers video.
Quoting 172. Tazmanian:




you wont see 92L on the nhc site you see it on the navy site


Thanks Taz :O)
Quoting 175. dfwstormwatch:


Not a big fan of seasonal forecasts personally.... Too many factors to consider and saying below average, especially in public, can make the public think that there is no point in being prepared.
Well the forecasters have a job to do so can't blame them.I think one forecaster said that every El nino year is different so don't expect the same thing to happen like it did the last time a El nino was in place.So there was room for error,if anything this year reminds me of 2002.I can't wait to see the papers discussing on how storms were able to get there acts together despite eventually getting destroyed.I suspect that they'll note the strong African wave train and the sst reversal (that was noted in the preseason forecast as being well below normal are now 1-2 degrees above normal).Should be interesting.

I notice that Invest 92L already has models that were run with the 18Z suite, but why isn't it on the NHC outlook?
183. DFWjc
Quoting 140. DFWdad:


Nearly impossible to think about, sitting here in North Texas, with our second consecutive day of 100 degrees.


Almost that here in North Richland Hills - we are at 98, waiting for it to go down some to do some walking with my other half.
Quoting 182. dfwstormwatch:


I notice that Invest 92L already has models that were run with the 18Z suite, but why isn't it on the NHC outlook?



the out look was done at 2 PM thats why you dont see it you have too wait in tell 8pm for the new out look too see what the nhc says on 92L
Considering we are reaching the climatological peak the Cape Verde season is over. I don't expect additional cyclones affecting the eastern Caribbean this year. I would be very surprised if yet a future TD be headed to the eastern Caribbean. The drought conditions will persist. However, PR has received good amounts of rain due to the trough and TW combined. I do not consider PR be unusually dry as is alleged by many... Next year could be another story...
Quoting Bob Henson:

The strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere brought Category 5 winds and a terrifying storm surge to the upper Florida Keys on the late evening of Monday, September 2, 1935.


Well, if we use intensity as the rubric for 'strongest hurricane,' the Labor Day storm is the strongest landfalling cyclone in the world. Three millibars lower than Typhoon Haiyan which came in at 895 mb during landfall.

And I'm not sure what was used to estimate windspeeds, but a compact storm that was deeper than Haiyan, probably gives it a run for its money wind-speed wise.
Quoting 177. NCHurricane2009:


I'd agree with you, except that this year's storms (with the exception of maybe Danny) were really not that impressive from an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) perspective. If you look at it from that perspective, to date we are below average from a typical Atlantic season. I'm starting to think seasonal forecasts should move away from predicting numbers of storms, and instead focus on a single number, the ACE. Its one thing if you've had 7 tropical storms. Its another if you have 7 hurricanes or 7 major hurricanes.
I don't think this season will have quality over quantity by any means but focusing on the number aspect its interesting none the less.
Quoting 176. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which one is the tropical cyclone again?



O_o 92L....boy, that escalated quickly!
Quoting 175. dfwstormwatch:


Not a big fan of seasonal forecasts personally.... Too many factors to consider and saying below average, especially in public, can make the public think that there is no point in being prepared.
That does bring about a good point, I'm not very critical of the seasonal predictions, but I think they should phase out words like below average, average, and above average, and just go with the numbers and an explanation as to why they are going with those numbers. It does send a false sense of hope to the public who read the forecasts. 2006 was the biggest busted forecast I had ever witnessed, it originally called for an active season, until El Nino conditions settled in. Here is an excerpt from that passage:

"On December 5, 2005, Klotzbach's team issued its initial extended-range forecast for the 2006 season, predicting an above average of 17 named storms, nine of them hurricanes, and five classified as Category 3 intensity or higher.[3]

As in the 2005 season, the team predicted it was highly probable that at least one major hurricane would directly impact the United States. The forecast suggested an 81% probability that at least one major hurricane would strike the U.S. mainland, a 64% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the East Coast of the United States (including the Florida peninsula), and a 47% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast of the United States from the Florida Panhandle westward. The team also predicted that the potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was above average. A few months later, on April 4, 2006, CSU issued another forecast confirming its December predictions.[6]

On May 22, 2006, NOAA released its pre-season forecast for the 2006 season. The prediction was for 13–16 named storms, 8–10 of those becoming hurricanes, and 4–6 becoming major hurricanes.
"

Since then I think the NHC has done a fine job with their pre-season predictions at least for La-Nina seasons, the problem has been predicting the timing of an actual El-Nino episode, while last year did exhibit El-Nino like behavior the event had not been declared because of the lack of persistent westerly wind bursts and downwelling Kelvin waves to bring the ONI up to a 3-month running avg. of +0.5°C. I like the saying though, "it only takes one" to make it a bad season and Andrew is the model hurricane and should be a lesson learned to be prepared each season regardless of the predictions.
Quoting 167. saltydog1327:

Have you guys seen this article?

http://news.yahoo.com/study-shifting-fewer-weaker -atlantic-hurricanes-150345963.html
I have to say that when you have someone who disclaims acceptance of the existence of global warming/climate change saying something like that, I have to think he is grabbing at straws to make a prediction about hurricane activity based on a pool of ice meltwater in the far North Atlantic. The changes in climate will dictate different influences on storm formation and intensity than we've experienced, and MAYBE thirty years from now forecasters will be starting to understand the new parameters. Buckle your seat belt, please.
Not sure if weather was the cause, but a Beech aircraft flying from Sarasota to Greensboro crashed less than five miles from where I grew up. [Link]. Didn't an F-16 crash into another plane in SC recently?
Grace should be firing some convection near the center soon.

Quoting 192. Grothar:

Grace should be firing some convection near the center soon.





nop she dead
Splashdown for the next system ETA about 4.5 days.



Where is Grothar I need him to give a title to this one over Nigeria.

Quoting 192. Grothar:

Grace should be firing some convection near the center soon.


Quoting 193. Tazmanian:




nop she dead


We shall see who is right.
Quoting 142. Grothar:



If you read back a few days, I wrote to look for development off the east coast and the Gulf of Mexico. But no one ever listens. :):)

Just for that no more blob alerts!!


This season has scared off quite a few bold predictions
Quoting 194. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Splashdown for the next system ETA about 4.5 days.



Where is Grothar I need him to give a title to this one over Nigeria.




BlobusNexttoLastOnus...
The tropical wave ahead of Grace is flaring up a little. Maybe the environment will get marginally better for Grace.
Quoting 194. GTstormChaserCaleb:



This belt of high pressure around the globe in the Nrn Hemi.. and 92L blooming up in the middle.. I don't seem to recall this so late in the season. In my hood, today might wind up being the 4th or 5th hottest day of the year... and the WAFR blob looks half-splashed down as we speak.
Why doesn't the NHC have a statement on their page for 92L?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A weak area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico about 70 miles southwest of Cedar Key, Florida, is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are very unfavorable due to strong upper-level winds and
dry mid-level air, and significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward to north-northeastward at 10 to 15
mph over the next day or so. However, locally heavy rains are
likely over portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia
through Tuesday as the disturbance moves across those areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A concentrated area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the
central Atlantic about 250 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat favorable
for development during the next few days while the system remains
nearly stationary for the next day or so, and then moves northward
at 5 to 10 mph by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 200. washingtonian115:

Why doesn't the NHC have a statement on their page for 92L?



you guys are this lazy old farts

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A weak area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico about 70 miles southwest of Cedar Key, Florida, is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are very unfavorable due to strong upper-level winds and
dry mid-level air, and significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward to north-northeastward at 10 to 15
mph over the next day or so. However, locally heavy rains are
likely over portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia
through Tuesday as the disturbance moves across those areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A concentrated area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the
central Atlantic about 250 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat favorable
for development during the next few days while the system remains
nearly stationary for the next day or so, and then moves northward
at 5 to 10 mph by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
203. JLPR2
Quoting 195. SunnyDaysFla:



We shall see who is right.


One thing is for sure, if Grace doesn't fire up tonight with D-max its exposed LLC will start degrading into a remnant pretty fast.
i wounder if 92L will be TROPICAL or Sub Tropical if it fourms
Quoting 197. PedleyCA:



BlobusNexttoLastOnus...
Nice! I'm naming the next one.
Quoting 203. JLPR2:



One thing is for sure, if Grace doesn't fire up tonight with D-max its exposed LLC will start degrading into a remnant pretty fast.
Already is
Quoting 203. JLPR2:



One thing is for sure, if Grace doesn't fire up tonight with D-max its exposed LLC will start degrading into a remnant pretty fast.



if not all ready


One thing Grace has going for her is what "appears" to be a vigorous LLC
Quoting 207. Tazmanian:




if not all ready


Don't right off Grace just yet!
Pretty obvious Grace "Didn't" have it. Interesting though that during an El Nino, typically these waves have no chance at all. Brings me to my last thought. If one of these next few waves does happen to make it, look out.
Quoting 209. stormpetrol:



Don't right off Grace just yet!



i say some of you guys this dont no when too quite on a storm


Grace is dead it has degeneration to a remnant low or will vary soon
Quoting 206. Gearsts:

Already is




Looks like Linda is spitting out a complex of LLCs to offer a sacrifice to CONUS which has been stripping down cyclones for their moisture for weeks now. Or really the LLCs are volunteering. I guess CONUS is as good a place as any to convert ocean heat to the atmosphere for cooling?
213. JLPR2
Quoting 206. Gearsts:

Already is


Maybe, its been almost all day without significant convection, the next ASCAT pass should give us a peek at how solid is the LLC.
Grace has a vigorous LLC and if it were to survive tonight and pass 42W where the shear will be a little more conducive then we could get a repeat of Erica.
The gulf low flooded parts of Gainesville today...
Link
Link


watching invest 92L 250 miles east-southeast of Bermuda FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS!!
Quoting 204. Tazmanian:

i wounder if 92L will be TROPICAL or Sub Tropical if it fourms
Sub Tropical
Quoting 216. hurricanes2018:



watching invest 92L 250 miles east-southeast of Bermuda FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS!!
WHY?
Quoting 216. hurricanes2018:



watching invest 92L 250 miles east-southeast of Bermuda FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS!!
why? nothing will happen nor will it bother anyone
Quoting 214. stoormfury:

Grace has a vigorous LLC and if it were to survive tonight and pass 42W where the shear will be a little more conducive then we could get a repeat of Erica.
stop please... grace will be nothing to anyone season over all ready
Quoting 219. leftrighty:

stop please... grace will be nothing to anyone season over all ready

Can I borrow your crystal ball?
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can I borrow your crystal ball?
troll?
Quoting 221. Gearsts:

troll?


He's probably wrongasusual. ;)
Quoting 219. leftrighty:

stop please... grace will be nothing to anyone season over all ready


Well then if the season is over you might as well stop visiting the blog.
Quoting 219. leftrighty:

stop please... grace will be nothing to anyone season over all ready


Ok so I know you are a troll, but I will respond anyway. If the season is over and you are just a straight up person just saying it is over based on weather knowledge, then you will probably not be on here anymore this hurricane season or will be in your own blog full of posts and information that we can go and visit and chat about weather. If you are a troll, you will likely just repeat it over and over again, then come back with another name to repeat it over and over again.

So which is it? I challenge you
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can I borrow your crystal ball?


My crystal ball says that next month it will be October.

;)
I wonder what storm will be the one farmer's almanac mentions later this month... by the way does anyone here know what they base their predictions on?
I'm always on the hope side however, her circulation is completely surrounded by dry air now.

post 224 you no better not too feed the troll the more you feed them the more they will stay
Quoting 228. Tazmanian:

post 224 you no better not too feed the troll the more you feed them the more they will stay


not feeding him, just being straight forward. If he disappears or comes back as another name, he is a troll. If he takes my advice and sets up his blog and goes over there, then he is out of the blog, but at least contributing to the site

Either way
230. beell
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:



My crystal ball says that next month it will be October.

;)


Hope you didn't pay a lot of money for it. I got a calendar from some real estate dude for free!
(and it came with a magnet!!)
Quoting 230. beell:



Hope you didn't pay a lot of money for it. I got a calendar from some real estate due for free!


Nah, I snuck it out of Gro's place when he wasn't looking. :P Don't tell him I said that.
07/2345 UTC 13.9N 38.4W T1.0/2.0 GRACE -- Atlantic
In Bermuda, a storm passed through.  I was in the eye, saw a couple of water spouts dancing in the sound.  Then the wall came back, we went underground by the Navy Base.  When we came out, I thought it was cool, destruction, nothing happened to my place.  There were toys scattered across my back yard.  I went to grab them, my parents said NO.  Then I knew my best friends house had gone down.  That was his stuff all over my back yard.  I helped pick it up.
Maybe down the line we may see some amazing Grace but for now her goose is cooked.
Say good night, Gracie.
;)
236. JLPR2
Who can Photoshop Obama's hope poster with Grace's current convection cell? XD
Quoting 236. JLPR2:

Who can Photoshop Obama's hope poster with Grace's current convection cell? XD



wow, not much left.
Quoting 233. ATLsweather:

In Bermuda, a storm passed through. I was in the eye, saw a couple of water spouts dancing in the sound. Then the wall came back, we went underground by the Navy Base. When we came out, I thought it was cool, destruction, nothing happened to my place. There were toys scattered across my back yard. I went to grab them, my parents said NO. Then I knew my best friends house had gone down. That was his stuff all over my back yard. I helped pick it up.


Good job. Help . Added: Those water spouts are an amazing sight.


fall weather coming by the weekend onlyin the 70s by the weekend in new haven,ct
Quoting 218. leftrighty:

WHY? why? nothing will happen nor will it bother anyone

I thought you were evacuating? It's good when something doesn't bother anyone huh.
Win/Win.
Shame on you Atlantic Ocean, not able to give us on the caribbean a powerful Major!
Quoting 226. MiamiHeat305:

I wonder what storm will be the one farmer's almanac mentions later this month... by the way does anyone here know what they base their predictions on?
Casting chicken bones and various other incantations.
XNT27 KNES 080013
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 07/2345Z

C. 13.9N

D. 38.4W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T1.0/2.0/W2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN .1 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 0.0.
MET = 1.5 AND PT = 1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
Quoting 241. zicoille:

Shame on you Atlantic Ocean, not able to give us on the caribbean a powerful Major!


i do not think peolpe wanted powel major hurrucane anytime soon
Quoting 244. hurricanes2018:



i do not think peolpe wanted powel major hurrucane anytime soon


yes, that's what we want !
246. beell
Quoting 226. MiamiHeat305:

I wonder what storm will be the one farmer's almanac mentions later this month... by the way does anyone here know what they base their predictions on?


We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.

Notes about that formula are locked in a black box in our offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. (Yes, that's a photo of the unassuming black box below.)

The Almanac's secret black box



Over the years, we have refined and enhanced that formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations. We employ three scientific disciplines to make our long-range predictions: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.

Our forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies and updated every ten years. The most recent tabulations span the period 1981 through 2010.

We believe that nothing in the universe happens haphazardly, that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena. However, although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are almost always very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.


www.almanac.com

Pretty much the same method used by NOAA.
:)


i saw a new t.storm in the center
Quoting 247. hurricanes2018:



i saw a new t.storm in the center

Well i'll be, there is one in there :) I see it too.
Quoting 227. ProgressivePulse:

I'm always on the hope side however, her circulation is completely surrounded by dry air now.


Well, at least this Grace doesn't need to worry about getting retired. It looks like Danny may have been the high point of the 2015 CV season. If the intense low with 50 knot winds that the HRRR tried to develop in the Gulf earlier today had actually developed, it would have been more intense than Grace. Maybe Beell's dog has some projections for the rest of the season.
Link
Odd curl..
251. JLPR2
Not dead yet, but rather unhealthy.


Convection popping right over the center, looks like Grace might live to fight another day!
Good evening

Grace continues to struggle for survival in a hostile environment. The small blow up of convection seen in recent imagery is probably due to two things; the cooling effect of night time temps which typically spark thunderstorm activity and the fact that shear has fallen by 5 knots in that area recently.

Whether this resurgence continues to blossom and sustain itself is questionable. Any real hope for a strong system, for those itching to see one, probably lies in the late season once cold fronts dip down into the NW and SW Caribbean.
Welp seemed like a lot of fizzle happened today. Will check back..


Good read in link...tells what they found in 1935. Not something you want to find or hope for,
even if you think you might. Stay safe and informed.

" In the first flight over the Keys the Amphibian C.G. 133 discovered that the storm swept area, a distance of approximately 35 miles, between Tavernier and Grassy Key, was a scene of utter desolation, not more than three houses remaining upright in this area, the rest having been completely demolished. All vegetation had been completely destroyed except for a few battered Mangrove trees."


1935 HURRICANE HISTORY
U. S. Coast Guard 1935 Hurricane Report
Link

One thing this season has given us and the experts is a lot to digest regarding models, human common sense/logic and quite a few more things to think about, this is not a boring year by all means and probably will turn out to be a year/season we can all learn alot from, just a thought!
Quoting 245. zicoille:



yes, that's what we want !

You mean that's what the peanut gallery wants.
Quoting 208. stormpetrol:



One thing Grace has going for her is what "appears" to be a vigorous LLC
Gets past the shear has a chance.
Quoting 226. MiamiHeat305:

I wonder what storm will be the one farmer's almanac mentions later this month... by the way does anyone here know what they base their predictions on?
Maybe they know Kelvin.
Wheres Taz?
Maybe Beell's dog has some projections for the rest of the season.
Possible - if he gives her a Milk Bone and a scritch behind the ears...
Quoting 260. Grothar:

Wheres Taz?



I saw it 1st and. Good night guys



I love my Samsung note 5 and iPad Air 2 wish I got the air 2 today
Quoting 256. stormpetrol:

One thing this season has given us and the experts is a lot to digest regarding models, human common sense/logic and quite a few more things to think about, this is not a boring year by all means and probably will turn out to be a year/season we can all learn alot from, just a thought!
The human forecasting side of the weather is by far the most important element to a forecast, especially for broadcast meteorologists, since it is the personality that will catch the audiences attention, who the hell cares about seeing some model run, people want to know is it going to rain or is it not. If all meteorologists just strictly went off the models to predict the weather, they would likely be fired by their directors. SAR made a good point about the amount of models we have, it's just too many and most are unreliable anyways. Sure they might get a weather event right every now and then, but if you went with that model every time, you would certainly look like a damn fool and an idiot on TV. If I had to choose to have 2 models in my show, it would most likely be the GFS and WSI RPM for local forecast, especially here in Florida to see what time the sea breeze boundary would get going and any thunderstorms that pop up along it, and of course the GFS for tropical, however, oftentimes the RPM is off, so you have to end up looking out to the sky, a webcam, a beachcam, to see what the clouds are doing. This will give you an idea how the model is performing and whether you should just go with your own intuition and experience with how the weather works in the area you are forecasting for.
Grace looks bad right now.I'll give it another day in terms of survival.There is no denying that the TUTT will be waiting for her though so even if she has a successful D-max her chances of survival are slim to none.It will however be another heavy rain threat for the Antilles.
My grandfather and his friend were fishing in the Keys when they realized a storm was coming from the way their barometer dropped. They got out on the last train that made it to Miami and rode out the storm there. He would always tell us stories of the great hurricanes of the 1920s and the 1930s and show how high the water came up onto land or over an island. He also recounted how many skeletons were found picked clean years after Lake Okeechobee surged over its banks.

Long time lurker--since this website was at cirrus.umich.edu


Should still hold on to TS status!
Hey guys just popping in and poping back out
hmm Grace not looking too bad right now atleast better than I thought I wasn't expecting convection building over the centre atleast till near midnight and going into morning

If she can continue to build on the convection and spread out and cover herself and maintain that convection atleast near the centre atleast until she reaches 45-50W she will make it if she makes it I think she will survive the rest of her Atlantic track and track into the E Caribbean after that it's a bit up in the air

I think next advisory she would be located near 14.0N 38.6W or 13.9N 38.7W it could be slight further W at 14.0N or 13.9N 39.9W moving W winds would either remain 45mph or slightly decrease to 40mph

I know some of you will say no and say I'm talking a pile of crap
Well let's wait and see
Remember I said key words %u201CIF"
Anyway I think this could happen but to find out we will just have to wait and see what she looks like after she reaches 45-50W and what are the conditions around her


Ok bye guys popping back out

I may pop back in advisory time if not see y'all later
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:



My crystal ball says that next month it will be October.

;)

Good! :)
Quoting 264. washingtonian115:

Grace looks bad right now.I'll give it another day in terms of survival.There is no denying that the TUTT will be waiting for her though so even if she has a successful D-max her chances of survival are slim to none.It will however be another heavy rain threat for the Antilles.


You mean Dominica and maybe Guadeloupe, not the N Leewards...
...GRACE WEAKENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 7
Location: 14.0°N 39.2°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:



My crystal ball says that next month it will be October.

;)


Will it give you the lotto numbers for October too?
New advisory not much change if any at all anyway good night guys see you all either at midnight or very early morning just after midnight
With increasing southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and an
abundance of dry mid-level air ahead of Grace, steady weakening is
expected due to these hostile environmental conditions. The only
saving grace
is the cyclone's robust low-level circulation, which
could force periodic bursts of deep convection for the next 24 hours
or so, similar to the most recent convective development.
Touche NHC touche!
From Tampa: drove across the bridge tonight and it was kind of windy. And this band coming ashore right now looks nasty. It looks like a tropical band though. That little yellow x
as i have said before dont put one down until you can see only blue water beneath it
Quoting 253. stormpetrol:



Convection popping right over the center, looks like Grace might live to fight another day! T


She will struggles like her previews siblings, CV seeds are resilience, who knows maybe another weak Erika crossing the Caribbean,, blame it on the "el Niño'' year...
And wicked lightning. Anyone on here in Clearwater seeing this?
Quoting 269. CaribBoy:



You mean Dominica and maybe Guadeloupe, not the N Leewards...
Hopefully the northern Islands, not Dominica.. they had enough...
Quoting 256. stormpetrol:

One thing this season has given us and the experts is a lot to digest regarding models, human common sense/logic and quite a few more things to think about, this is not a boring year by all means and probably will turn out to be a year/season we can all learn alot from, just a thought!
Agree, actually a very interesting year. A year to be remembered by the strong waves coming out of Africa. Lot to learn, even for the experts. On storms development, during "super "el Niño year", trajectory, strength., forecasting, etc.
WPAC visible loop
"Wrong way" Omar 2008... crazy convection, large storm!





.... lol
Now Danny (and Erika, and Grace) looks really ridiculous.. lol



I miss big storms. We need better moisture next year!!
Just did my 81st blog update of the season....and its an action-packed episode because there are six "hot spots" going on in the Atlantic:

1. Tropical Storm Grace
2. Tropical Wave Emerging from Africa
3. Tropical Wave over central Africa
4. Invest 92-L east-southeast of Bermuda
5. Eastern GOM Low
6. Potential subtropical or tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico next week
Linda is rapidly intensifying again. The latest NAM model run is moving the storm even further to the right. This would bring heavy rain to Baja

Quoting 285. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my 81st blog update of the season....and its an action-packed episode because there are six "hot spots" going on in the Atlantic:

1. Tropical Storm Grace
2. Tropical Wave Emerging from Africa
3. Tropical Wave over central Africa
4. Invest 92-L east-southeast of Bermuda
5. Eastern GOM Low
6. Potential subtropical or tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico next week
all nothing worth watching
Grace isn't looking too good. Plenty of convection on the north side but not well organized.
no room for winers (cry babies) on this hurricane watching team
looking like this yr will be a double digit. if you picked 4 to 7 throw in the towel.
Good Morning all..

Hope everyone enjoyed their holiday..

This is all within the 72 hour frame showing on the 00z UKMET

6z Navgem shows a weak "Grace" heading into the GOM..

vis. 92 is next
Quoting 295. islander101010:

vis. 92 is next
Is a waste of time still watching blobs here and blobs there.
Yeah, Linda's not 80kts... May warrant a special advisory, although that's uncommon in the East Pac.

299. beell
A case could be made to qualify 92L as a sub-tropical disturbance that initiated along a stationary boundary. There is also an upper level shortwave to the west.





Yesterday afternoon's 2PM Tropical Weather Discussion:

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH BASE REACHING NEARLY 30N
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 30N46W THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT ON ACROSS THE WATERS N OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
Quoting 256. stormpetrol:

One thing this season has given us and the experts is a lot to digest regarding models, human common sense/logic and quite a few more things to think about, this is not a boring year by all means and probably will turn out to be a year/season we can all learn alot from, just a thought!


I think the season is turning out pretty much as expected. None of the waves pushing off the coast of Africa have stood a chance due to hostile conditions created by El Nino. If it wasn't for the fabricated hype on this blog and some other media outlets, none of the storms other than maybe Erika, would have caused much of a stir. I think the season will aid in further El Nino research though.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015


An area of cloudiness and showers located about 300 miles east-
southeast of Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development during the next couple of days while the
system remains nearly stationary for the next day or so, and then
moves northward at 5 to 10 mph by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

invest 92L
I AM STILL GOING TO WATCH INVEST 92L looking better this morning
Why would you say that?

Quoting 292. islander101010:

looking like this yr will be a double digit. if you picked 4 to 7 throw in the towel.
Agreed that's why we get excited now when we hear thunder...it's been dry for so long....the odd rain and locally heavy if u r right under it but overall no soaking rains

Quoting 284. CaribBoy:

Now Danny (and Erika, and Grace) looks really ridiculous.. lol



I miss big storms. We need better moisture next year!!

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 18h18 hours ago
State of the Climate in 2014 "17:18 warmest years occurred since 1997" We are now in a stronger than the 97' El Nino


This is on heck of an El-Nino beginning to emerge. 8C anomalies are now growing beneath Nino 3.4 & Nino 3. This all means that the El-Nino pattern across the US is about to take hold now that we are about to enter Fall in 2 weeks. Models are all over this too with a major shot of cold air coming south in the day 10 to 14 range with lows in the 30's pretty far south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

It's September....we are going to be dry dry dry this winter
+1

Quoting 263. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The human forecasting side of the weather is by far the most important element to a forecast, especially for broadcast meteorologists, since it is the personality that will catch the audiences attention, who the hell cares about seeing some model run, people want to know is it going to rain or is it not. If all meteorologists just strictly went off the models to predict the weather, they would likely be fired by their directors. SAR made a good point about the amount of models we have, it's just too many and most are unreliable anyways. Sure they might get a weather event right every now and then, but if you went with that model every time, you would certainly look like a damn fool and an idiot on TV. If I had to choose to have 2 models in my show, it would most likely be the GFS and WSI RPM for local forecast, especially here in Florida to see what time the sea breeze boundary would get going and any thunderstorms that pop up along it, and of course the GFS for tropical, however, oftentimes the RPM is off, so you have to end up looking out to the sky, a webcam, a beachcam, to see what the clouds are doing. This will give you an idea how the model is performing and whether you should just go with your own intuition and experience with how the weather works in the area you are forecasting for.
EP, 15, 2015090812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1136W, 100, 960, HU
312. FOREX
Quoting 285. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my 81st blog update of the season....and its an action-packed episode because there are six "hot spots" going on in the Atlantic:

1. Tropical Storm Grace
2. Tropical Wave Emerging from Africa
3. Tropical Wave over central Africa
4. Invest 92-L east-southeast of Bermuda
5. Eastern GOM Low
6. Potential subtropical or tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico next week
Do early model runs show whether the Western GOM disturbance will stay in the Western GOM or move in another direction?
314. FOREX
Quoting 306. StormTrackerScott:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 18h18 hours ago
State of the Climate in 2014 "17:18 warmest years occurred since 1997" We are now in a stronger than the 97' El Nino


This is on heck of an El-Nino beginning to emerge. 8C anomalies are now growing beneath Nino 3.4 & Nino 3. This all means that the El-Nino pattern across the US is about to take hold now that we are about to enter Fall in 2 weeks. Models are all over this too with a major shot of cold air coming south in the day 10 to 14 range with lows in the 30's pretty far south.


Florida could use some 30's.


Hurricane LINDA

8C anomalies are now growing beneath Nino 3.4 & Nino 3. img





NOPE!
here in the borderland......after above average temps for what seems forever......we have the opportunity to drop to the mid 80's this week.......rain chances still above average......thanks to linda's moisture heading our way this could be a wet week......local forecasters and the cpc both agree we could see as much as an inch

Good Morning Folks. Spent the holiday weekend in Atl with the family and did not realize we had Grace until this morning as well as the dissipation forecast. Will only note (without in-dept analysis) that is that the Central Atlantic really dried up since last week; I anticipated a more robust storm with plenty of moisture right now but the opposite happened. Just noting two things off the top my head at the moment; a) how dry the Atlantic is and b) all that activity in the Eastern E-Pac off the coast of Central America. When things flare up in the E-Pac, it tends to slow it down on the Atlantic side (can't have an MJO pulse in both places at the same time):



Impressive:

And nothing major (in terms of a very robust wave) that I can see on the horizon at the moment from Africa:

Quoting 312. FOREX:

Do early model runs show whether the Western GOM disturbance will stay in the Western GOM or move in another direction?

ECMWF had the disturbance moving towards Central Gulf in 240 hours.
Good Morning Folks. Spent the holiday weekend in Atl with the family and did not realize we had Grace until this morning as well as the dissipation forecast

notice you had a little system with some spin come up your way this morning......
Finally noting how hostile shear has gotten in the Central Atlantic; if this keeps up (high shear due to El Nino and the dry stable air), there is a possibility that we are currently seeing the last CV storm of this season with Grace:

Quoting 314. FOREX:

Florida could use some 30's.

I don't see how Florida will be in the 30s in September.
Quoting 322. ricderr:

Good Morning Folks. Spent the holiday weekend in Atl with the family and did not realize we had Grace until this morning as well as the dissipation forecast

notice you had a little system with some spin come up your way this morning......


Lol.............We got in late last night and I saw that on the local doppler this morning; another "ghost" tropical storm making landfall in the Big Bend this am (the remnants of Ericka did the same thing last weekend).....
Quoting 322. ricderr:

Good Morning Folks. Spent the holiday weekend in Atl with the family and did not realize we had Grace until this morning as well as the dissipation forecast

notice you had a little system with some spin come up your way this morning......


Here it is with the mini-rain bands still coming ashore...................... :)
Southeast sector loop

Quoting 324. sporteguy03:


I don't see how Florida will be in the 30s in September.
It's all about the 8C anomalies. Please see #306
Good agreement between the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS of something attempting to develop off the Mexican coastline in the GOMEX by 6-8 days. Track and intensity is obviously uncertain, but the ECMWF and CMC both show an environment conducive for further organization.
Lol.............We got in late last night and I saw that on the local doppler this morning; another "ghost" tropical storm making landfall in the Big Bend this am (the remnants of Ericka did the same thing last weekend).....

those are the perfect storms...they look good on radar and cause no damage
Quoting 298. MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, Linda's not 80kts... May warrant a special advisory, although that's uncommon in the East Pac.




95-100 kt by the looks of it.
Some dusty morning greetings (massive storm!):
Middle East dust storm puts dozens in hospital
BBC, 35 minutes ago
Quoting 324. sporteguy03:


I don't see how Florida will be in the 30s in September.
Florida is not going to be anywhere near the 30's in the coming week, any more than Florida was hit by an intense low and 50 knot winds yesterday. Sometimes hyperbole is just that.
Quoting 326. weathermanwannabe:



Here it is with the mini-rain bands still coming ashore...................... :)
Southeast sector loop


The mini-rainbands are still pretty mini up here. If this keeps up, though, it's possible I could see some moderate drizzle in the next hour or two. I'm going to find my canoe oars now, just in case.




Certainly looks like an El Nino winter is in store for Florida. In fact, below normal temperatures and above average precip is forecast all the way through April.
Quoting 324. sporteguy03:


I don't see how Florida will be in the 30s in September.


30s Celsius

Next question?
Quoting 332. sar2401:

Florida is not going to be anywhere near the 30's in the coming week, any more than Florida was hit by an intense low and 50 knot winds yesterday. Sometimes hyperbole is just that.


Sar, you're wrong about those 50 knot winds yesterday - it was Saturday:).
Quoting 334. fmbill:





Certainly looks like an El Nino winter is in store for Florida. In fact, below normal temperatures and above average precip is forecast all the way through April.


Yeah this is the classic strong El Nino signature.

It is also a forecast, not a certainty although I believe it.
Quoting 332. sar2401:

Florida is not going to be anywhere near the 30's in the coming week, any more than Florida was hit by an intense low and 50 knot winds yesterday. Sometimes hyperbole is just that.

I agree Sar. I even checked Atlanta and Nashville depending on how far "South" and see lows still in the low 60s in those areas. I have no idea where a massive cool down will occur anytime soon from what I see.
339. ariot
Seriously though, if the El Nino burst causes early frosts back East, peeps with temperature models and later on, forecasts, need to get to steppin'.

The last early frost I recall in the middle south (when living there) was mid October of 2009.

People south of the Mason-Dixon aren't ready for that at the end of September or early October, unless they are mountain people who are pretty much ready for whatever, I'm told :-P

(I'm talking about #306 and the 8C swing that could turn up the weather volume)
Quoting 335. georgevandenberghe:



30s Celsius

Next question?


He was talking low temperatures don't be silly, lol.
Quoting 339. ariot:

Seriously though, if the El Nino burst causes early frosts back East, peeps with temperature models and later on, forecasts, need to get to steppin'.

The last early frost I recall in the middle south (when living there) was mid October of 2009.

People south of the Mason-Dixon aren't ready for that at the end of September or early October, unless they are mountain people who are pretty much ready for whatever, I'm told :-P

(I'm talking about #306 and the 8C swing that could turn up the weather volume)


I'm ready for that weather anytime anywhere.
Little early for a blizzard..



Quoting 317. ricderr:

here in the borderland......after above average temps for what seems forever......we have the opportunity to drop to the mid 80's this week.......rain chances still above average......thanks to linda's moisture heading our way this could be a wet week......local forecasters and the cpc both agree we could see as much as an inch




This will probably afford another 10 days of sunsets like we had last night.. Sun showing off to the west with rainbows to the east..

Quoting 336. Bucsboltsfan:



Sar, you're wrong about those 50 knot winds yesterday - it was Saturday:).
Ah, well then, any time between Saturday and now, I guess. It looks like the intense low is about ready to come ashore near Apalachicola. Lawn furniture may be in danger over the next couple of hours. Still waiting for the moderate drizzle to reach me. The first batch went right on by without a drop. At least it's only 78, so that's one good thing the semi-sub-post tropical low has provided.
Seems like this is latest three month outlook.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Boring is growing here.No hurricanes or TS to watch,so as two weeks ago, let' s talk about ice again.
Quoting 344. sar2401:

Ah, well then, any time between Saturday and now, I guess. It looks like the intense low is about ready to come ashore near Apalachicola. Lawn furniture may be in danger over the next couple of hours. Still waiting for the moderate drizzle to reach me. The first batch went right on by without a drop. At least it's only 78, so that's one good thing the semi-sub-post tropical low has provided.


Lol, I forgot today was Tuesday so it might have been Sunday was the day we were supposed to get slammed. Stay safe up there!
This will probably afford another 10 days of sunsets like we had last night.. Sun showing off to the west with rainbows to the east..


ahhh...that is nice....here's an el paso sunset...notice we have the "beach"....just no ocean....LOL



forget it.........pic won't load
Quoting 315. hurricanes2018:



Hurricane LINDA


maybe we are going to see something like that in the tropical Atlantic next year.
Quoting 309. Patrap:

Lets take a moment to let this one sink in some.

GOP to attack climate pact at home and abroad
An aide to Mitch McConnell has been informing foreign embassies about GOP plans to oppose Obama's strategy on global warming.
By Andrew Restuccia
09/07/15, 09:30 AM EDT



It's that pesky Constitution:

The President... shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur....

ARTICLE II, SECTION 2, CLAUSE 2
105 kt Linda now
Quoting 351. hurricanes2018:


So,another L heading to P.R.Thanks God is not a cat5.
Quoting 350. canyonboy:



It's that pesky Constitution:

The President... shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur....

ARTICLE II, SECTION 2, CLAUSE 2

Can you please share with us the part in the Constitution that encourages members of the Legislative branch to directly interact with foreign dignitaries in an official capacity to undermine the Executive branch? Having trouble finding that part. Oh, also the place in any history book ever written that outlines how ignoring solid scientific facts actually changes those facts? TIA...
00Z EURO shows a TC in the Western GOM.
Quoting 339. ariot:

Seriously though, if the El Nino burst causes early frosts back East, peeps with temperature models and later on, forecasts, need to get to steppin'.

The last early frost I recall in the middle south (when living there) was mid October of 2009.

People south of the Mason-Dixon aren't ready for that at the end of September or early October, unless they are mountain people who are pretty much ready for whatever, I'm told :-P

(I'm talking about #306 and the 8C swing that could turn up the weather volume)
Define "middle South". The record early frost in Montgomery AL was October 20, 1989. It was probably seven or eight days later in Eufaula, but we don't have records going back very far. 1989 was the end of a strong La Nina year, getting ready to transition to a neutral year. El Nino is given far too much credit for individual extreme events. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that a strong el Nino usually causes slightly below average winter temperatures and about 10% above average rainfall in the deep South. Not one earliest freeze in Alabama occured in even a moderate El Nino year. If I had 10 bucks for every time the GFS predicted we were going to have unusually cool weather here this spring and summer, I could have paid off the mortgage by now.
Only 36% of the average rainfall was recorded in August...

But some islands to our south (except Dominica) were luckier with near to above normal rainfall thanks to Erika, Danny, and the few tropical waves that passed through.

358. FOREX
Quoting 355. scott39:

00Z EURO shows a TC in the Western GOM.
Big Cat breathing heavily.
92L's location, circumstances and potential track have eerie similarities to Hurricane Juan.

I have family in NS, I hope that Atlantic Canada is monitoring this potential threat.
Some of the models on this low has pulled this together shortly after landfall better than at any point over water. I wouldn't count out those 50kt winds yet;)

Quoting 355. scott39:

00Z EURO shows a TC in the Western GOM.
Yes, it has for several days now. It keeps moving the low further out in time with each run, and it becomes much less convincing if you go back in time through the model and try to figure out where this low came from. It's not out of the question, but I'll find it more believable when there's a low somewhere that might actually have a chance to get into the BOC.
Quoting 286. brandyn:

Linda is rapidly intensifying again. The latest NAM model run is moving the storm even further to the right. This would bring heavy rain to Baja



Impressive for now, but as soon as it hits that magic SST barrier just south of Point Eugenia (the cape that juts out midway up the peninsula), it will shred, top flying away and eddy drifting and fading out to sea, as per the usual.

The unusual will only occur if one of these coastal hurricanes phases with a properly-oriented early season front off the California coast. Hasn't happened in our lifetimes. May have happened back in the 19th century.
Quoting 306. StormTrackerScott:

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 18h18 hours ago
State of the Climate in 2014 "17:18 warmest years occurred since 1997" We are now in a stronger than the 97' El Nino


This is on heck of an El-Nino beginning to emerge. 8C anomalies are now growing beneath Nino 3.4 & Nino 3. This all means that the El-Nino pattern across the US is about to take hold now that we are about to enter Fall in 2 weeks. Models are all over this too with a major shot of cold air coming south in the day 10 to 14 range with lows in the 30's pretty far south>

Hi Scott. I'm in West Palm Beach. Do you see any potential for snowfall here?
Quoting 360. Skyepony:

Some of the models on this low has pulled this together shortly after landfall better than at any point over water. I wouldn't count out those 50kt winds yet;)


Generally, an actual forecast does better than a model.

Today Scattered showers before noon, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning.

San Fernando Valley is 3-4° Hotter than these temps....
San Fernando Valley is 3-4° Hotter than these temps....


saw that this morning....another hot week for you
Quoting 354. Neapolitan:

Can you please share with us the part in the Constitution that encourages members of the Legislative branch to directly interact with foreign dignitaries in an official capacity to undermine the Executive branch? Having trouble finding that part. Oh, also the place in any history book ever written that outlines how ignoring solid scientific facts actually changes those facts? TIA...
Book title is " How to manipulate the Constitution" by Greed.E.Pigg.
368. ariot
Quoting 356. sar2401:

Define "middle South". The record early frost in Montgomery AL was October 20, 1989. It was probably seven or eight days later in Eufaula, but we don't have records going back very far. 1989 was the end of a strong La Nina year, getting ready to transition to a neutral year. El Nino is given far too much credit for individual extreme events. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that a strong el Nino usually causes slightly below average winter temperatures and about 10% above average rainfall in the deep South. Not one earliest freeze in Alabama occured in even a moderate El Nino year. If I had 10 bucks for every time the GFS predicted we were going to have unusually cool weather here this spring and summer, I could have paid off the mortgage by now.


I'm not defending the prognostication because it does not yet exist, hence the call to action in my post, "get to steppin'."

Middle south, to me, is the TN Valley of N. Alabama up through southern edge of MO on the west edge and over to the mountains in KY on the east, going up about half way. Or to use an official climate term, the southern part of the "Ohio valley" plus the northern edge of the "South East" and the inclusion of the northern edge of MS, all of AR and the bottom of MO.

An early frost happened (not freeze) in N. Alabama in 2009 (or maybe 2010) with a surge back to warm shortly after.

A headache for me, but a loss for others.

So, if a model, or any reasonable forecast in a few weeks, shows widespread threat of frost for the east coast and or greater south east, it should be socialized early and often.

It would also help, if true, to explain weather deviations during strong to moderate El Nino patterns. I'm for anything that can provide conclusive links that the average Joe can understand, outside of weather and climate geek circles.

Chances are it'll still be nice and warm
Quoting 362. BayFog:


Impressive for now, but as soon as it hits that magic SST barrier just south of Point Eugenia (the cape that juts out midway up the peninsula), it will shred, top flying away and eddy drifting and fading out to sea, as per the usual.

The unusual will only occur if one of these coastal hurricanes phases with a properly-oriented early season front off the California coast. Hasn't happened in our lifetimes. May have happened back in the 19th century.


I wonder how the outcome would change if Point Conception extended 100 miles more to the west :)

LA tropics ;)
Quoting 364. sar2401:

Generally, an actual forecast does better than a model.



Did you miss the near live satellite pic there? The blow up of convection near the center of the weak low already looks better than it ever has over water. Generally actual weather observations do better than a forecast. It is really not uncommon to get a 50kt wind report or tree damage indicative of such with a little weather...especially near the ocean on a hot day. I see thunderstorms are in the forecast..Seems silly to throw out the chance of such with the way the satellite looks.
Quoting 365. PedleyCA:


San Fernando Valley is 3-4° Hotter than these temps....


FUN.

Although, this is probably the last heat wave before we start cooling down.
a tiny low amplitude tw is about to move through the ABCs. persistent and now vigorous.
Quoting 371. TimSoCal:



FUN.

Although, this is probably the last heat wave before we start cooling down.


WU only has you down for 101F, here they have 104F, doubt it will make that, but you never know.
Currently 76.7 here.
Quoting 371. TimSoCal:



FUN.

Although, this is probably the last heat wave before we start cooling down.


Our forecast has been 99s with actuals being 104/116 here in the Balcones Feudal Settlement, Centex. Inland Empire??
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Perhaps President Obama's trying to circumvent Senate advice and consent.

From the link Patrap posted at 309:

"In Paris, representatives of nearly 200 nations will try to hammer out an agreement for curbing the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for warming the planet and boosting sea levels. By design, the State Department is pushing for a broad political agreement that has buy-in from each country but won't carry the legal authority of a treaty - getting around the Constitution's requirement that treaties be ratified through a two-thirds vote in the Senate."...

"I don't see anything [Republicans in Congress] can do other than express their view," said Jeremy Rabkin, a George Mason University professor who teaches international law.

"But Rabkin, a critic of the administration's climate policies, added that Obama can't bind future presidents to the agreement if it isn't a treaty. 'You live by the rhetoric, you die by the rhetoric,' he said."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/gop-congress -climate-pact-paris-213382#ixzz3lAB9bEZP

Once again, glad to have read beyond the headline.
Quoting 374. redwagon:



Our forecast has been 99s with actuals being 104/116 here in the Balcones Feudal Settlement, Centex. Inland Empire??


Counties Riverside, San Bernardino, Los Angeles (eastern portions)
Ten largest cities by population (2010 U.S. Census) - Riverside (RV)
- San Bernardino (SB)
- Fontana (SB)
- Moreno Valley (RV)
- Rancho Cucamonga (SB)
- Ontario (SB)
- Corona (RV)
- Victorville (SB)
- Temecula (RV)
- Murrieta (RV)
Quoting 339. ariot:

Seriously though, if the El Nino burst causes early frosts back East, peeps with temperature models and later on, forecasts, need to get to steppin'.

The last early frost I recall in the middle south (when living there) was mid October of 2009.

People south of the Mason-Dixon aren't ready for that at the end of September or early October, unless they are mountain people who are pretty much ready for whatever, I'm told :-P

(I'm talking about #306 and the 8C swing that could turn up the weather volume)


There is a weak negative correlation between El NIno and fall temperatures in the Mid Atlantic. It's slightly cooler than long term mean in El Nino falls. Other terms are stronger and I'm not anticipating early frost this
{ mopping soaked brow }
year.

Most young people in large parts of the country don't realize how late the frost threat goes in spring and early in fall.. it takes a once a decade or two event to drive that point home.

For frost, the fall of 1974 stands out with killing frosts several weeks early in the upper midwest (MN) around Labor day, in most of the midwest Sept 22-23, and in the DC metro exurbs Sept 24. Another outbreak produced killing frosts in almost all of the DC metro area October 3-4 (inner urban cores only escaped) and this event caused the peanut crop to freeze as far south as Southern VA east of the Piedmont but inland from tidewater. After mid October, the pattern turned mild and winter 1974-75 was fairly gentle.

There are no outstanding frosty springs in my memory.
379. vis0
Thank you Mr Henson for a part of history that no one should forget.Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 presents the power of nature and the importance of always being prepared, how even professionals have trouble when nature creates sudden changes, so the common joe & jane should pay attention to when any TS is near by..