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Remarkably dry and warm winter due to record extreme jet stream configuration

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on January 06, 2012

Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover. High temperatures in Nebraska yesterday were in the 60s, more than 30° above average. Storm activity has been almost nil over the past week over the entire U.S., with the jet stream bottled up far to the north in Canada. It has been remarkable to look at the radar display day after day and see virtually no echoes, and it is very likely that this has been the driest first week of January in U.S. recorded history. Portions of northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and the mountains of the Western U.S. that are normally under a foot of more of snow by now have no snow, or just a dusting of less than an inch. Approximately half of the U.S. had temperatures at least 5°F above average during the month of December, with portions of North Dakota and Minnesota seeing temperatures 9°F above average. The strangely warm and dry start to winter is not limited to the U.S--all of continental Europe experienced well above-average temperatures during December.


Figure 1. Flowers sprouting on January 1, 2012 in Keene, New Hampshire, thanks to unusually warm December temperatures and lack of snow. Image credit: Wunderphotographer lovne32.


Figure 2. Departure of snow depth from average on January 6, 2011. More than 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover (yellow and orange colors.) Image credit: NOAA/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

December 2011 jet stream pattern the most extreme on record
The cause of this warm first half of winter is the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (which can be thought of as the North Atlantic's portion of the larger-scale AO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The AO and NAO have significant impacts on winter weather in North America and Europe--the AO and NAO affect the path, intensity, and shape of the jet stream, influencing where storms track and how strong these storms become. During December 2011, the NAO index was +2.52, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The AO during December 2011 had its second most extreme December value on record, behind the equally unusual December of 2006. These positive AO/NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S. and Europe.




Figure 3. December 2011 temperatures in Europe and the U.S. were well above average, thanks to a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Compare the U.S. plot with the plot of typical departures of temperature from average due to the positive phase of the AO (Figure 4.) The two patterns are nearly identical. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 4. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

Wild swings in the December Arctic Oscillation
This winter's remarkable AO/NAO pattern stands in stark contrast to what occurred the previous two winters, when we had the most extreme December jet stream patterns on record in the opposite direction (a strongly negative AO/NAO). The negative AO conditions suppressed westerly winds over the North Atlantic, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Western Europe, bringing unusually cold and snowy conditions. The December Arctic Oscillation index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years, with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record. Unfortunately, we don't understand why the AO varies so much from winter to winter, nor why the AO has taken on such extreme configurations during four of the past six winters. Climate models are generally too crude to make skillful predictions on how human-caused climate change may be affecting the AO, or what might happen to the AO in the future. There is research linking an increase in solar activity and sunspots with the positive phase of the AO. Solar activity has increased sharply this winter compared to the past two winters, so perhaps we have seen a strong solar influence on the winter AO the past three winters. Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to the negative (cold) phase of the AO, like we observed the previous two winters. Those winters both had near-record low amounts of sunspot activity, so sea ice loss and low sunspot activity may have combined to bring a negative AO.


Figure 5. The December Arctic Oscillation (AO) index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years, with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

The forecast for the remainder of January
We will (finally!) get the first major storm of 2012 in the U.S. early next week, when a low pressure system will develop over Texas and spread heavy rains of 1 - 3" along a swath from Eastern Texas to New England during the week. This storm will pull in a shot of cold air behind it late in the week, giving near-normal January temperatures to much of the country, and some snow to northern New England. Beyond that, it is difficult to tell what the rest of winter may hold, since the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance. The latest predictions from the GFS model show the current strongly positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next two weeks, resulting in very little snow and warmer-than-average temperatures. If we don't get significant snows during the latter part of winter, the odds of a damaging drought during the summer in the Midwest will rise. The soils will dry out much earlier than usual without a deep snow pack to protect them, resulting in a much earlier onset of summer-like soil dryness. Water availability may also be a problem in some regions of the west due to the lack of snow melt. Fortunately, most Western U.S. reservoirs are above average in water supply, due to the record-breaking snows of the previous winter.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
9:00 AM FST January 9 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 03F (1001 hPa) located at 22.5S 175.8W remains slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection has been irregular near the low level circulation center for the last 12 hours.

Global models expect 03F to weaken as it moves south.

Tropical Disturbance will not develop into a tropical cyclone.

System #2
---------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1000 hPa) located at 18.1S 153.6W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on GOES visible imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. The exposed low level circulation center lies just to the west of the area of enhanced convection. Organization has increased in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. 04F lies just to the east of an eastward moving 250 HPA trough in a strong sheared environment.

Global models have picked up td04f and move it southeast with no intensification.

The potential for td04f to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.

System #3
--------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1002 hPa) located at 17.5S 169.7W is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours with the low level circulation center difficult to locate. Organization has slightly increased in the last 12 hours. 05F lies under the 250 HPA ridge axis with a good upper divergence and along a surface trough. Cyclonic circulation extends Up to 750 HPA. 05F lies under a weak sheared environment.

Global models have picked up td05f and slowly move it in the east-southeastward with some intensification.

The potential for td05f to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to MODERATE
Man, does this blog need a good blizzard....
I just read that the AO index had a RECORD HIGH value in December of +2.5, explaining the extreme wetnss and warmth in Northern Europe (and no snow in the Alps).
Quoting CrozetDutch:
I just read that the AO index had a RECORD HIGH value in December of 2.5, explaining the extreme wetnss and warmth in Northern Europe (and no snow in the Alps).




Courtesy of the BBC Austria hit by heavy snow, major railway line shut

Sorry. Alps are getting heavy snow.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Man, does this blog need a good blizzard....
Last
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Man, does this blog need a good blizzard....
Last year got a lotta people hooked on blizz trackin. To me it is neat to watch them develop.
Quoting petewxwatcher:




Courtesy of the BBC Austria hit by heavy snow, major railway line shut

Sorry. Alps are getting heavy snow.


Courtesy of BBC:

Swiss ski resorts hit by drought

They had no snow in December.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is the last radar image for Rita before the radar station was knocked out.



Rita wuz a monstah.....
Quoting Xandra:

THE WINNER OF THE 2011 CLIMATE B.S.* OF THE YEAR AWARDS IS:

Second Place: Disinformation from Fox News and Murdoch’s News Corporation


This guy better watch out, he included himself in his own list:

Peter Gleick "...has published many scientific articles. He serves as a major source of information on water and climate issues for the media, and has been featured on CNBC, CNN, Fox Business, Fresh Air with Terry Gross, NPR, in articles in The New Yorker, and many other outlets..."
This is what a lack of deep south cold fronts do to GOM SSTs. This was then (2011):
Uh-oh

...and this is now (2012):
Uh-oh

If things don't start cooling off soon--and they very well may--2012 could end up with a bit of a head start.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




...Anymore from anybody?
How about a radar shot of 1985,s Gloria.?
Rita in the formative stage..
Quoting hydrus:
How about a radar shot of 1985,s Gloria.?


Don't have a radar shot, but I found this...

Yes, lots of heat in the deep tropics still.

Caribbean Jan 7, 2011.


Caribbean Jan 7, 2012.


Nearly 3C higher than last year in some shallow areas, while nearly 2C higher than last year in the northwest Carb.

The TCHP difference is quite impressive though.

Caribbean Jan 7, 2011.


Caribbean Jan 7, 2012.


If you look basin wide, this time in 2011 most of the heat was in the Eastern Atlantic, while this year it's mainly in the west. I'm only guessing, but it might be a more destructive year per storm than 2011 (not that it will be more destructive, as I doubt we will have the activity)

EDIT: Looking back in the archive another year, 2010 and 2012 seem to be very close at this time.
Wiki states that Rita was the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico. Rita had 180 mph winds, but Camille had 190 mph winds. The pressure was lower in Rita than Camille. Rita was 26.43 and Camille at 26.61. It would be at least somewhat logical to say that Camille was actually more intense since it is the wind and the storm surge that do most of the damage, not the central pressure. The size and strength of the storm has more to do with storm tide then the low barometric reading...it is interesting.


TEBOW!!!!! OMG AAAAAAAAGH!!!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't have a radar shot, but I found this...

omg........REPORTED...:)
Quoting Articuno:
Did everyone ditch me or something??
Nobody ditched ya Ryan..ITS dinner time bro...:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


TEBOW!!!!! OMG AAAAAAAAGH!!!!!

Steel Curtain? Yeah right...
Rita makin landfall....
Rita and huge Atlantic low..
Two satellite images showing the extent of flooding caused by Rita in Louisiana and Texas.
Quoting Neapolitan:
This is what a lack of deep south cold fronts do to GOM SSTs. This was then (2011):
Uh-oh

...and this is now (2012):
Uh-oh

If things don't start cooling off soon--and they very well may--2012 could end up with a bit of a head start.


NE GOM especially - combine that with the heat pile-up in the Western Atlantic basin and climatologically higher numbers of Florida Panhandle NNE tracking storms in June.
ok so both games went my way, lol. Denver won and New Orleans won!

i feel bad for Tim Tebow going to meet the Patriots, that will be a TOUGH game
Closing price on if 2012 will be the warmest year on record has dropped to $37, down from $55 last June..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER CHANDA (05-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 9 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Chanda (996 hPa) located at 21.2S 44.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 22.1S 44.4E - Depression sur terre
24 HRS: 22.6S 44.9E - Depression sur terre

Additional Information
======================

System made landfall in the area of Belo (at 2100 PM UTC approximately). Near gale force winds are possible over sea and over the coastal area up to 90 nm from the center in the northwestern sector.

Important convective activity and rains associated with the inland depression are observed in the area of Belo/Andranopasy (region of the Menabe) and up to 120 km inland. Thundery rains are important in a convergence line of the monsoon flow associated with the system in its north, on the axis 13S 40E to 17S 46E.

Accumulation of precipitations should be important in the northwest of Madagascar (coastal region of Mahajanga and within a radius of about 200 km inland). Important thundery rains should continue in the region of the Menabe and in the northwest of Madagascar during the next 24 hours. System is forecast to dissipate inland by 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC CHANDA will be issued at around 6:30 AM UTC..
Quoting WxGeekVA:


TEBOW!!!!! OMG AAAAAAAAGH!!!!!
can't stand tee-blow

Maybe its because I'm from San Diego
91P Click pic for loop

i really got a question here that i cant figure out...why does the dateline move 10 DEGREES to the east once it reaches 5S? and then curve back to the original line of 180W/180E at 45S?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


what program are you using thar, TAWX?
Quoting Skyepony:
Betting is heavy against snow in NYC this year..


That is the coolest site!!! Thanks...I think...
Quoting SPLbeater:
i really got a question here that i cant figure out...why does the dateline move 10 DEGREES to the east once it reaches 5S? and then curve back to the original line of 180W/180E at 45S?
The 2011 Japan earthquake was so strong that it shifted the plate east, causing the dateline to be pushed east as well.
Quoting TomTaylor:
what program are you using thar, TAWX?

GR2Analyst.
Quoting TomTaylor:
The 2011 Japan earthquake was so strong that it shifted the plate east, causing the dateline to be pushed east as well.


Really? I was under the impression that Chuck Norris roundhouse kicked it to the East because he was bored.
Storms just loved the gulf of mexico back in 05.Lolol.
Due to Humans really dissing Mother Earth..and her Eco System,

Winter has been cancelled in the Northern Hemisphere.

No Sneaux fer you.


Also,

There are now 347 Days until the Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Evening.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Really? I was under the impression that Chuck Norris roundhouse kicked it to the East because he was bored.
well Chuck Norris caused the Earthquake so i guess we are both trying to say the same thing
Quoting Patrap:
Due to Humans really dissing Mother Earth..and her Eco System,

Winter has been cancelled in the Northern Hemisphere.

No Sneaux fer you.


Well I'm insulting mother nature because of the crap weather I've been getting.Where's my winter???
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
MSZ066-090335-
JONES MS-
908 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

...CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO LAUREL...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAUREL AT 906 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS
ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN JONES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3160 8895 3155 8917 3170 8930 3181 8922
3182 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 233DEG 19KT 3168 8915

$$

40




533 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

DAY ONE...TONIGHT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG STORM SYSTEM.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
well, if i dont get snow with these next 2 lows comin thru(which i probably wont) then we need to have spring come when they have left so i can go fishing!
Quoting presslord:


That is the coolest site!!! Thanks...I think...


Yeah..a place to buy contracts on the weather.. I'm a little torn about finding this too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

GR2Analyst.
oh nice. I see it has a nice radar archive, what other nice features does it have? Is it worth the money? And does it have a lot of model output?
Drought Year?

Drought shrinks China's largest freshwater lake
Link

In Texas' worst drought on record, trees dying by the millions
Link


Argentine Drought May Be Worst for Crops in Over 70 Years
Link


Latin America Battling Wildfires, Floods, Droughts
Link


Israel is being hit with another official drought for the eighth year in a row, according to the country's Water Authority.
Link

Italian bank issues warnings to investors over euro currency Posted on January 8, 2012

January 8, 2012 – ROME -The Italian bank UniCredit warned its investors of the potential risk of a break-up of the euro as the single currency was battered on anxiety about the health of euro zone governments and their banks. Trading in the bank’s shares was halted five times on Thursday due to huge falls as shareholders digested the terms on which it was trying to raise €7.5 billion ($9.5 billion) to plug a hole in its regulatory capital.

Link
Moon was huge & orange when it came up.. Saw a ring at some point. Ups my chance of rain on the next front Thurs.. Some Jan/moon lore for the full moon..there is more in my blog comments.


* Whatever the weather is like the first twelve days of January indicates what the weather will be like for the next 12 solar months. Each day equals on month in succession.
* To wish on the Moon in order to see a specific person soon, say while looking at the Moon: " I see the Moon, The Moon sees me. The Moon sees (name of the person) who I want to see."
Quoting SPLbeater:
well, if i dont get snow with these next 2 lows comin thru(which i probably wont) then we need to have spring come when they have left so i can go fishing!
I'll be suprised if we get any big snow storm this year.This winter will be remember as Wussy winter.Lol.
Some Fukushima news....

Vegetable mutation? Harvested north of Tokyo in June (PHOTO)



TODAY'S MOST VIEWED at
http://enenews.com/report-horrible-vegetable-muta tion-harvested-north-tokyo-june-photo

Report: Worst vegetable mutation Harvested north of Tokyo in June (PHOTO) (3266)

Report: Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 boiled after powerful New Years quake, says plant worker (3021)

Japan Journalist: Many police in Fukushima died from radiation -Policeman (2521)

Will the media report this? Evacuees will never be able to return Radiation can be cleaned up Gov going to have to build giant diaper under Fukushima plant (1421)

ACRO Survey: Homes are significantly contaminated in Tokyo suburb First time child from capital had radiation detected in urine (1384)

==========================================
Breaking News: After the quake of 1/1, Fukushima had fallout more than 30 days of Nov
Posted by Mochizuki on January 5th, 2012 4 Comment

After the earthquake, it turned out that the fallout amount in Fukushima from 1/2/2012~1/3/2012 spiked up to be 558.1 Bq/m2 (Cs-134 and 137)
I don't know if anyone has seen the red tide alert for NOLA that has gone into effect, but it is supposed to be the most dangerous one in decades. Let's hope all the rare Louisiana tigers and honey badgers make it out alive tomorrow night!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'll be suprised if we get any big snow storm this year.This winter will be remember as Wussy winter.Lol.


lol, this winter sur isnt one of the cold type...maybe the pattern will shift towards febuary, because i have gotten snow before near the middle of march. so i aint sunk yet xD
Quoting Skyepony:
Moon was huge & orange when it came up.. Saw a ring at some point. Ups my chance of rain on the next front Thurs.. Some Jan/moon lore for the full moon..there is more in my blog comments.


* Whatever the weather is like the first twelve days of January indicates what the weather will be like for the next 12 solar months. Each day equals on month in succession.
* To wish on the Moon in order to see a specific person soon, say while looking at the Moon: " I see the Moon, The Moon sees me. The Moon sees (name of the person) who I want to see."


It really is mind-boggling that the same Moon we look at tonight…is the same Moon that the first human saw.
Quoting pipelines:
I don't know if anyone has seen the red tide alert for NOLA that has gone into effect, but it is supposed to be the most dangerous one in decades. Let's hope all the rare Louisiana tigers and honey badgers make it out alive tomorrow night!!
RTR!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It really is mind-boggling that the same Moon we look at tonight…is the same Moon that the first human saw.


Yes, except it looks smaller now as compared to then. At least, according to Grothar.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, except it looks smaller now as compared to then. At least, according to Grothar.


what is it with dogs and the moon? why do they got to howl, i mean what do they think it is? a big eyeball lookin at them? LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

But then people wouldn't take the storm seriously...Tropical Storms can be destructive too.


Hey buddy, before you criticize my posts, you might want to at least read them first :)




"How about that pitiful tropical storm that literally evaporated when it hit the Texas Coast earlier this year, does anyone remember that thing?

Seriously, I don't think tropical storms should be named. Yes there have been some destructive tropical storms but there have been a lot of lame pitiful ones too. I just think because of that they should be named but only by in number like tropical depressions. I think tropical cyclones shouldn't get names till hurricane strength."
Quoting SPLbeater:
well, if i dont get snow with these next 2 lows comin thru(which i probably wont) then we need to have spring come when they have left so i can go fishing!



I soooo want to go fishing too. Maybe we'll be able to access the lake this year. Of course I'd be happy to be sitting out on the pier staring at the moon tonight. It's warm enough and with the fog warning wind wouldn't be a problem. Just bad timing. Sigh. ;-)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



I soooo want to go fishing too. Maybe we'll be able to access the lake this year. Of course I'd be happy to be sitting out on the pier staring at the moon tonight. It's warm enough and with the fog warning wind wouldn't be a problem. Just bad timing. Sigh. ;-)


yes, and where your at in TX you need something to fish IN lol, so i be praying that the drought will be extinguished down there :D
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey buddy, before you criticize my posts, you might want to at least read them first :)




"How about that pitiful tropical storm that literally evaporated when it hit the Texas Coast earlier this year, does anyone remember that thing?

Seriously, I don't think tropical storms should be named. Yes there have been some destructive tropical storms but there have been a lot of lame pitiful ones too. I just think because of that they should be named but only by in number like tropical depressions. I think tropical cyclones shouldn't get names till hurricane strength."


BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. we need them named so people know when scary things like Jose form, they will have time to leave the area
night all
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER CHANDA (05-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 9 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Chanda (998 hPa) located at 21.6S 43.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Additional Information
======================

Microwave pictures at 2213 PM UTC (TRMM) and 0208 AM UTC (F17), and classical imagery satellite show that system has not made its landfall. Now, it is located 20 km north of Morombe. 0551z ASCAT swath indicates that winds do not reach near gale force around the low. former Chanda's track has been relocated more west relative to 0000 AM UTC fix.

Convective activity has clearly weakened close to the center of the system that undergoes a strengthening west-northwesterly vertical wind shear. Important convective activity and heavy rains persist over south of Madagascar within the south-eastern part of the low and within a convergence line of the monsoon flow associated with the system in its north, on an axis 11S 40E to 17S 47E. Within the next 24 hours, it is expected that depression dissipates by coming inland. During the next 36 hours, heavy rains should continue in the south of Madagascar region, as they might progressively decrease within convergence line located in the north of system.

Last warning for this system except re-intensification.
Keep an eye on this thing over the next few days, as it may become a polar low. It's stacked under a strong cut-off upper low and will be remaining nearly stationary in the Sea of Okhotsk over open water, not sea ice. All models project that it will become warm-core and deepen below 995mb despite being vertically stacked with an upper low, a sign of barotropic processes strengthening it.



Seriously cool watching it form. Thanks for keeping an eye out, and for the photo. Probably woulda missed it entirely without ya.
56.7*F in Macon, Georgia this morning, 100% humidity.
It would appear that our 50% chance of rain will be here soon. :)

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern Houston County in southeast Texas...
eastern Madison County in southeast Texas...
northwestern San Jacinto County in southeast Texas...
southwestern Trinity County in southeast Texas...
northern Walker County in southeast Texas...

* until 545 am CST

* at 454 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This tornado
was located 6 miles southeast of Madisonville... moving east at 35
mph. This storm down trees in northwest Brazos County.

* Locations in the Tornado Warning include but are not limited to
Sebastopol... Trinity... midway and Lovelady.
Statement as of 5:17 AM CST on January 09, 2012

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northern Beauregard Parish in southwest Louisiana...
this includes... Singer... Merryville... De Ridder...

* until 545 am CST

* at 515 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Singer...
moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Junction and Tulla
Tornado Warning
2012-01-09 07:02:00 EST until
2012-01-09 08:00:00 EST

602 am CST Mon Jan 9 2012

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Montgomery County in southeast Texas...

* until 700 am CST

* at 600 am CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This tornado
was located near Magnolia... moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Locations in the Tornado Warning include but are not limited to
Magnolia...Lake Conroe dam...Willis...Pinehurst...Panorama Village
and Conroe.
northpac is not producing any extra large swells this yr too early to say no way but i doubt if the eddie goes this yr
Any of you guys familiar with this site? www.simuawips.com? You're gonna like it.
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
north central Beauregard Parish in southwest Louisiana...
south central Vernon Parish in west central Louisiana...
this includes Fort Polk...

* until 700 am CST

* at 615 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 15 miles
southwest of Cravens... moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Fullerton

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

National Weather Service radar indicates a tornado may form at any
time. Take cover now! Abandon Mobile homes and vehicles. Move to an
interior room or hallway on the lowest floor away from windows.

Tornadoes at night are extremely dangerous. Do not wait until you see
or hear the tornado... it may be too late. Take cover now!


Please report severe weather to the National Weather Service at
337-477-5285 extension 1.

Lat... Lon 3110 9322 3095 9293 3077 9319 3083 9329
time... Mot... loc 1218z 214deg 18kt 3083 9321
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 700 am CST for
Montgomery County...

At 630 am CST... the iah terminal Doppler radar continued to indicate
strong rotation within a storm between Magnolia and the Lake Conroe
dam... or 9 miles west of Conroe... moving northeast at 25 mph. This
storm could produce a tornado... damaging winds and hail.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Lake
Conroe dam... Panorama Village and Willis

Please report severe weather to the County sheriff... local police...
or department of public safety and ask them to relay your report to
the National Weather Service.

Lat... Lon 3020 9570 3025 9575 3050 9557 3039 9534
time... Mot... loc 1232z 224deg 22kt 3033 9561

Quoting Levi32:
Keep an eye on this thing over the next few days, as it may become a polar low. It's stacked under a strong cut-off upper low and will be remaining nearly stationary in the Sea of Okhotsk over open water, not sea ice. All models project that it will become warm-core and deepen below 995mb despite being vertically stacked with an upper low, a sign of barotropic processes strengthening it.





This may be a dumb question, but if that becomes warm-cored and develops convection and an LLC, would the JTWC call it a subtropical storm? Even with that northern location? Thanks.
Lots of rain in the forecast from Texas to FL. Expect another round of heavy rain and severe wx Sunday across a good bit of FL. Sunday looks active folks.



Sunday Evening!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


you couldnt post all that in 1 post, why? lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


you couldnt post all that in 1 post, why? lol


Does it matter if it's one post or not.
Good Morning. Time to keep a close eye on the Gulf Low as it sweeps accross the South and Gulf States over the next few days.........Looks like everyone is on board already this morning. Not moving that fast at the moment so it will probably bring plenty of rain along with any severe weather that it may produce along the way.
Houston area is in for it today. Not out of the question for many ares to receive 3" to 5" of rain today.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey buddy, before you criticize my posts, you might want to at least read them first :)




"How about that pitiful tropical storm that literally evaporated when it hit the Texas Coast earlier this year, does anyone remember that thing?

Seriously, I don't think tropical storms should be named. Yes there have been some destructive tropical storms but there have been a lot of lame pitiful ones too. I just think because of that they should be named but only by in number like tropical depressions. I think tropical cyclones shouldn't get names till hurricane strength."
Bonnie was a pathetic t.s. too.
Here in South Central Texas only received about 2 tenths, we were suppose to get inches but it missed us, our Lakes are 70 percent dry so I am still hoping for a flood or 2 to put some water in them.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Here in South Central Texas only received about 2 tenths, we were suppose to get inches but it missed us, our Lakes are 70 percent dry so I am still hoping for a flood or 2 to put some water in them.


Yeah most of the rain looks like it's going to focus in the Houston area today.
589. Inyo
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey buddy, before you criticize my posts, you might want to at least read them first :)




"How about that pitiful tropical storm that literally evaporated when it hit the Texas Coast earlier this year, does anyone remember that thing?

Seriously, I don't think tropical storms should be named. Yes there have been some destructive tropical storms but there have been a lot of lame pitiful ones too. I just think because of that they should be named but only by in number like tropical depressions. I think tropical cyclones shouldn't get names till hurricane strength."


yeah, but you will never know if it will be 'pitiful' or not until after the fact, and 'un-naming' storms is silly. Tropical storms aren't a big deal windwise but they can cause disastrous flooding, as we learned in Vermont this summer.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Storms just loved the gulf of mexico back in 05.Lolol.
You can see the bitter cold air that should enter the U.S. on the EURO..
West of Houston

Tornado Warning
2012-01-09 09:11:00 EST until
2012-01-09 10:00:00 EST

811 am CST Mon Jan 9 2012

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Fort Bend County in southeast Texas...

* until 900 am CST

* at 806 am CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This tornado
was located near Orchard... moving east at 25 mph.

* Locations in the Tornado Warning include but are not limited to
town west...Richmond...Pecan Grove and Fulshear.
Dr. Masters,

Thanks for the very informative blog discussing the warm winter of 2012 and possible sunspot activity correlations.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah most of the rain looks like it's going to focus in the Houston area today.
It got the roads wet around here that is about it, slight improvement in our drought situation but we need what Southeast Texas and Louisiana are getting today, heavy rains.
Quoting hydrus:
You can see the bitter cold air that should enter the U.S. on the EURO..


It's safe to say that will not be the case atleast for the South. As the GFS is back on the Gulf Low for Sunday. Just talked to the NWS of Melbourne earlier and they said they are monitoring the GFS for the potential for heavy rain & severe wx for Sunday afternoon. The models were just showing this a couple of days ago and now it's back again but instead of Friday & Saturday it's now a Sunday & Monday event.
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Fort Bend County in southeast Texas...
Harris County in southeast Texas...

* until 945 am CST

* at 853 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This tornado
was located near mission Bend... moving east at 30 mph.

Law enforcement reported a funnel cloud near Highway 99 and Mason
Road at 850 am.

* Locations in the Tornado Warning include but are not limited to the
medical center... reliant park... minute maid park... Memorial... hobby
Airport... Herman Park... the galleria... Addicks... West University
Place... town west... Sugar Land... Stafford... Spring Valley...
Southside Place... South Houston... Piney Point Village... Pecan
Grove... Meadows... Hunters Creek Village... Houston... Hilshire
Village... Hedwig Village... First Colony... Bunker Hill Village and
Bellaire.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's safe to say that will not be the case atleast for the South. As the GFS is back on the Gulf Low for Sunday. Just talked to the NWS of Melbourne earlier and they said they are monitoring the GFS for the potential for heavy rain & severe wx for Sunday afternoon. The models were just showing this a couple of days ago and now it's back again but instead of Friday & Saturday it's now a Sunday & Monday event.
Strange weather out there.
Neat image of the space station crossing the moon..
Possible snowfall model..
Galveston county been in the clear for a long time...
all im gittin is that boring slow rain
<
Woke last night (ok this morning) to the sound of thunder. How far off I sat and wondered. Not a drop here. But my lake area is getting a ton! :)

4 to 5 inches of rain over parts of Houston so far. Very impressive!

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Woke last night (ok this morning) to the sound of thunder. How far off I sat and wondered. Not a drop here. But my lake area is getting a ton! :)


Oh, yeah? Which 1962 song did you find yourself humming?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Woke last night (ok this morning) to the sound of thunder. How far off I sat and wondered. Not a drop here. But my lake area is getting a ton! :)



Ain't it funny how the night moves?
Yea, isn't it funny how the night moves?... night moves...

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Woke last night (ok this morning) to the sound of thunder. How far off I sat and wondered. Not a drop here. But my lake area is getting a ton! :)

We are getting quite a bit of street flooding around parts of Houston.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's safe to say that will not be the case atleast for the South. As the GFS is back on the Gulf Low for Sunday. Just talked to the NWS of Melbourne earlier and they said they are monitoring the GFS for the potential for heavy rain & severe wx for Sunday afternoon. The models were just showing this a couple of days ago and now it's back again but instead of Friday & Saturday it's now a Sunday & Monday event.


But if the GFS is correct then the bitter cold would actually be more likely(although delayed to next week) since a dominent southern stream phase would actually pull impressive cad numbers all the way to Florida(like this past cold spell) on the back side of the phased low(Larry Cosgrove mentioned this senario the other day on his blog).
...with Autumn closin' in....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


This may be a dumb question, but if that becomes warm-cored and develops convection and an LLC, would the JTWC call it a subtropical storm? Even with that northern location? Thanks.


No. Polar lows are in their own class and although they are very similar to tropical cyclones, they are not of concern to the tropical forecast agencies.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, yeah? Which 1962 song did you find yourself humming?



Lol. No 1962 songs just a strong hankerin' for some Seger. :) Finally started raining here. We're supposed to get some of the heavier rains later.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE NEAR VICTORIA AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WITH SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING TORNADOES IN
SOUTH TEXAS AS FAR EAST AS THE HOUSTON AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STATIONARY WITH WAVES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE JUST
SOUTH OF JASPER AND ALEXANDRIA.

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS LOWER ON TEMPS TODAY DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN
COOLED AIR AND BACKED OFF ON THE 100 POP BUT STILL CATEGORICAL FOR
ALL EXCEPT S CEN LA WHERE I MADE IT A 70 OR LIKELY POP. LOOKS LIKE
THE HEAVIER RAINS CURRENTLY ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX AND INTO CENTRAL
LA WEST OF ALEXANDRIA WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE REMAINDER OF CEN
LA NEXT FEW HOURS...LOWER SE TX MID-AFTERNOON, SW LA THIS EVENING
AND S CEN LA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
Quoting Levi32:


No. Polar lows are in their own class and although they are very similar to tropical cyclones, they are not of concern to the tropical forecast agencies.



Ok thanks for clarifying.


Light snow at my house just west of DC, earlier than I expected. Maybe some accumulation?
..."Once I thought I saw you, in a crowded Hazy Bar, Dancing on the Light, from Star to Star"...
Quoting Patrap:
..."Once I thought I saw you, in a crowded Hazy Bar, Dancing on the Light, from Star to Star"...



Wow! That's flattering. I mean...I didn't realize you viewed me that way....but...it's OK....
Somewhere in Houston area



Storms produce flooding in parts of Southeast Texas
January 09, 2012 10:23 AM
Scott Lawrence

HOUSTON – A cluster of severe storms moved through the Houston area Monday morning, creating dangerous conditions on the roads and dumping several inches of rain.

Hundreds of drivers have been stranded by high water throughout the Greater Houston Area and in surrounding counties.

Major closures include: Highway 288 at the South Loop; Westpark Tollway at the South Post Oak ramp; Allen Parkway west of downtown; and Highway 90 between Richmond and Rosenberg in Fort Bend County.

Click here for the lastest high water reports from Transtar.

About 50 homes near Third Street in Richmond are being evacuated because of high water, according to Alan Spears with the Fort Bend Office of Emergency Management.

Fort Bend County is under a tornado warning until noon.

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 12:30 p.m. for Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris counties.

A flash flood warning is in effect until 1 p.m. for Fort Bend, Harris and Wharton counties.

A flash flood warning is in effect until 2 p.m. for Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris counties. 

“If you don’t have to go out, don’t do it, because this is going to be an absolute mess,” said KHOU 11 News Meteorologist David Paul. “It is dangerous out there.”

Paul said there was a chance for tornadoes. There have been unconfirmed reports of wind damage -- possibly caused by tornadoes -- in Harris and Fort Bend Counties.

Read more: http://www.kfdm.com/articles/southeast-46545-storm s-flooding.html#ixzz1izEWQrbi
I'm sure there is some flooding around RitaEvac now as well. Very intense rainfall rates Galveston County.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Storms produce flooding in parts of Southeast Texas
January 09, 2012 10:23 AM
Scott Lawrence

HOUSTON – A cluster of severe storms moved through the Houston area Monday morning, creating dangerous conditions on the roads and dumping several inches of rain.

Hundreds of drivers have been stranded by high water throughout the Greater Houston Area and in surrounding counties.

Major closures include: Highway 288 at the South Loop; Westpark Tollway at the South Post Oak ramp; Allen Parkway west of downtown; and Highway 90 between Richmond and Rosenberg in Fort Bend County.

Click here for the lastest high water reports from Transtar.

About 50 homes near Third Street in Richmond are being evacuated because of high water, according to Alan Spears with the Fort Bend Office of Emergency Management.

Fort Bend County is under a tornado warning until noon.

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 12:30 p.m. for Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris counties.

A flash flood warning is in effect until 1 p.m. for Fort Bend, Harris and Wharton counties.

A flash flood warning is in effect until 2 p.m. for Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris counties. 

“If you don’t have to go out, don’t do it, because this is going to be an absolute mess,” said KHOU 11 News Meteorologist David Paul. “It is dangerous out there.”

Paul said there was a chance for tornadoes. There have been unconfirmed reports of wind damage -- possibly caused by tornadoes -- in Harris and Fort Bend Counties.

Read more: http://www.kfdm.com/articles/southeast-46545-storm s-flooding.html#ixzz1izEWQrbi


I told you this was coming! Biggest rain in over a year in Houston.

Look near 119E 12.5S I will be watching

Look to the left
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Somewhere in Houston area



Wow...They wanted some rain. ,,Just not that fast..
Quoting hydrus:
Wow...They wanted some rain. ,,Just not that fast..


Looks as if the battle between spring and winter is on. Another event is coming this weekend and will work along the Gulf Coast.
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click image for Loop

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Somewhere in Houston area





Yeah...but Houston floods when a flock of seagulls fly over downtown...
Local Flooding Houston 01-09-12

Uploaded by jtbug on Jan 9, 2012
Gnarly thunderstorm the likes I haven't seen in Houston for some time now hit this morning. Street flooding as usual in my neighborhood. Was under a tornado warning for about 45 minutes before I ventured out to take this video. Lightning was constant, like a strobe light. Fun and scary!


632. DDR
We've almost got our Jan. month rainfall in 2 days in parts of Trinidad which is around 3 inches.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I'm sure there is some flooding around RitaEvac now as well. Very intense rainfall rates Galveston County.



Damn, I've been on front porch, street flooding going on, water blowing in under back door but it's on tile so no biggie, plants blown over in back yard.
There was some spin up somewhere, winds were blowing from the east into the storm and the tornado signature was to my south.... gusting, trees blowing, white out like tropical system a while ago.
Quoting Patrap:
Local Flooding Houston 01-09-12

Uploaded by jtbug on Jan 9, 2012
Gnarly thunderstorm the likes I haven't seen in Houston for some time now hit this morning. Street flooding as usual in my neighborhood. Was under a tornado warning for about 45 minutes before I ventured out to take this video. Lightning was constant, like a strobe light. Fun and scary!




Get ready Pat as this is heading your way.
Quoting RitaEvac:
There was some spin up somewhere, winds were blowing from the east into the storm and the tornado signature was to my south.... gusting, trees blowing, white out like tropical system a while ago.


Looks like a meso. You can see some rotation moving into Galveston Bay now.

Haven't seen rain like that since over a year, we needed every drop of this, regardless of the flooding. no idea how much rain I have yet, backyard is nice and mushy and water laying.
WOOHOO!! rain quit where i am, finally. i wush that the clouds wuld go away
Funny places in Houston are getting more rain today than they got the first 10 months of last year.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like a meso. You can see some rotation moving into Galveston Bay now.



Yea, I was on northering flank
Definately some huge rotation, if you can see underneath all the warnings Link
NOAA radio been blowing non stop since 9:30am
On vacation, and have New Jersey cousins at my parents staying there 5 miles to my south, welcome to Texas folks! supposed to go out and eat dinner but has been on hold for a while...go figure
Galveston



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1253 PM EST MON JAN 09 2012

...VALID 18Z MON JAN 09 2012 - 00Z WED JAN 11 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
PSX 10 W SGR 10 N IAH 40 S LFK 20 N JAS 20 W AEX 15 WSW AEX
15 NNW ACP 25 NW CWF 10 ESE BPT 10 S GLS 15 NE KBQX 15 SE PSX
PSX.


UPR TX COASTAL REGION INTO SRN LA...


SOME SHORT TERM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL REMAIN ACRS PARTS
OF THE UPR TX COAST AND SRN LA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SATL
IMAGERY AT 1730Z SHOWED COLD TOP CONVECTION OVER THE UPR TX COAST
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND EVEN A BIT
SOUTHEAST WITH TRAINING OF SOME OF THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS SLOW
EWD PUSH SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPR LOW OVER SW TX
BEGINS TO TURN A BIT MORE EWD. IN THE SHORT TERM..THESE HEAVY
RAINS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS..ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE HAD HEAVIER RAINS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MRNG.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD WITH POTNL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINS OVER
SRN LA OVERNIGHT..BUT STGEST CONVECTION COULD END UP OVER THE NRN
GULF WHERE BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY MAY SET
UP..WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY RUNOFF ISSUES INLAND WHERE FF GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Get ready Pat as this is heading your way.


Were monitoring closely as the BCS Game is here tonight.





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1142 am CST Monday Jan 9 2012


Discussion...


surface low will likely redevelop over northwest Gulf this morning with the stalled frontal boundary remaining north of the forecast area today through Tuesday morning.

Upper level trough will deepen into a low over central Texas through Tuesday. The associated cold
core will remain slanted back to the northwest. Over the warm sector and over the forecast area...lapse rates will decrease slightly to create marginal instability.

Therefore...will maintain more showers and less convection today and tonight. Precipitable
water values will remain around 140 to 180 percent or 0.9 to 1.2 inches from central Texas east along the central Gulf Coast.

Moderate lift will start precipitation to develop across west area this morning and area wide this afternoon. Rain chances will remain high for tonight with marginal instability...rainfall amounts up
to 2 to 3 inches through late Tuesday.

Forecasted isotach analysis at 250mb showed the nose the jets approaching southwest Louisiana
to 18z today shifting north as the trough axis becoming more neutral tilted and negatively tilted tonight into Tuesday.

However...instability remains marginal and forcing will come along the cold front Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon...will keep questionable severe in graphicast and severe weather potential statement for Tuesday.

Precipitation will likely end with dry air entrainment Tuesday night. With the southern track...wraparound moisture and southern track of the cold core low may create a chance of storms just north of the mcb Tuesday night.

Clearing will occur Wednesday with slight cold air advection just Wednesday morning.
A strong surge with strong cold air advection Thursday morning through Friday afternoon with dry conditions continuing through the weekend.
WOW! Look at those rain totals to my north! Good to see and much needed. Here enjoying the rain we're getting. :)

Good news for all, Farmers and those alike,as the Cotton, Corn and Rice took a Beating last year.

As well as the Ranchers and nature as a whole.

Just what the doctor ordered for much of texas, glad you guys are finally getting a break!
Quoting Patrap:
Good news for all, Farmers and those alike,as the Cotton, Corn and Rice took a Beating last year.

As well as the Ranchers and nature as a whole.




Most definitely. The trees are loving it too. The Forestry Service said the drought killed half a billion trees in the E TX piney woods alone. Not including those lost to fire. This has been just crazy. Just yesterday they were telling people here not to pull off the pavement if you had car trouble so your catalytic converter wouldn't start yet another fire. Big sighs of relief going round all over. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:


You think more rain will develop west this afternoon and move over the Houston area? It doesn't seem likely in my opinion but I am not 100% sure
Wow. .2 inches of snow in 1 hour... YAY!!!
Afternoon all.

Amazing to see rain over the TX portion of the radar map....

Sure hope u guys r getting a soaking there...
We are On track for a record breaking snow this year in Valdez, AK. We have had an additional foot or more since this was posted.
From KVAK website:
SUNDAY 1/1/12 THROUGH THURSDAY 1/5/12

Snowfall for the Past Week
  44.7 inches

Snowfall for the Month So Far
44.7 inches
152.2 inches fell in December breaking the previous record of 137.1 set in 1991

Snowfall for the SeSUNDAY 1/1/12 THROUGH THURSDAY 1/5/12

Snowfall for the Past Week
  44.7 inches

Snowfall for the Month So Far
44.7 inches
152.2 inches fell in December breaking the previous record of 137.1 set in 1991

Snowfall for the Season
268.3 inches
52.8 inches more than we had all Last Season (215.5 inches)
We are almost 45 inches ahead of this time in '89/'90
The total Snowfall for the '89/'90 Season was 560.7 inches

Snowload in Pounds per Square Foot
  85 lbs

Snow Records Broken over the course of the Past Week
On Thursday 1/5 19.2 inches fell breaking the previous record of 16.9

FYI
The last day that no snow was recorded was 12/10/11
Thompson Pass has 450 inches
47.5 inches of snow fell in one day on 1/16/90ason
268.3 inches
52.8 inches more than we had all Last Season (215.5 inches)
We are almost 45 inches ahead of this time in '89/'90
The total Snowfall for the '89/'90 Season was 560.7 inches

Snowload in Pounds per Square Foot
  85 lbs

Snow Records Broken over the course of the Past Week
On Thursday 1/5 19.2 inches fell breaking the previous record of 16.9

Big weather heading Our way too.

Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wow. .2 inches of snow in 1 hour... YAY!!!


where are you? I'm just curious, because I work about 80 miles west of DC and wondered if I had some snow on the way. I thought it was supposed to stay to the south, but who knows? I think I am finally reconciled to Winter, and January, and could use a little snow for once. Little, mind you, don't send the whole lot :)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wow. .2 inches of snow in 1 hour... YAY!!!


lucky with a capital L, lol. dern snow, went 1 state too far north xD. enjoy your snow, all i got is mushy ground a dirty/wet puppy and on and off sprinkles!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WOW! Look at those rain totals to my north! Good to see and much needed. Here enjoying the rain we're getting. :)

Not much rain South of Austin but glad to see Southeast Texas getting it, that kind of rain is what we need to put a little water into ponds and lakes, most are pretty dry south and west of Austin.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


You think more rain will develop west this afternoon and move over the Houston area? It doesn't seem likely in my opinion but I am not 100% sure


It's done
looks to be cold next monday accoridng to GFS, eastern seaboard might dip down to soome wintery temps
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not much rain South of Austin but glad to see Southeast Texas getting it, that kind of rain is what we need to put a little water into ponds and lakes, most are pretty dry south and west of Austin.


It has to start near the coast first because of the GOM influence, central TX is due to get its own, so at least it's a right step in direction
Looks like Dallas Fort Worth area still hasn't gotten as much as it would like...

Texas City had possible tornado

Roof collapses at Mall of the Mainland
From staff reports
The Daily News
Published January 9, 2012

TEXAS CITY — Part of a roof has collapsed at Mall of the Mainland, police said. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service says a tornado touched down not far from the mall, according to TV station KHOU Channel 11.

The Daily News has not determined whether anyone was injured in the collapse, which happened about 1 p.m., according to police. The mall was being evacuated, police said.

The Daily News has reporters en route to mall, 10000 Emmett Lowery Expressway.

Check back later for more.
Detention basins in the neighborhood are filled to the brink, took a drive, had to drive thru a lil water on the feeder road on I-45, not doing that again,
Quoting RitaEvac:
Detention basins in the neighborhood are filled to the brink, took a drive, had to drive thru a lil water on the feeder road on I-45, not doing that again,


Yea our servers went down at work so they let us all go home around 11:45. Kind of stupid but I drive a truck so I went for it. I was going west on the south loop and every single feeder road was covered in water. I took Fannin exit and went down Holly Hall over 288 and it was completely under water. At least 30-40 cars with water of the hoods and close to a hundred had tried to drive up the median onto the side of the road and got stuck in mud!

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yea our servers went down at work so they let us all go home around 11:45. Kind of stupid but I drive a truck so I went for it. I was going west on the south loop and every single feeder road was covered in water. I took Fannin exit and went down Holly Hall over 288 and it was completely under water. At least 30-40 cars with water of the hoods and close to a hundred had tried to drive up the median onto the side of the road and got stuck in mud!



Must be a lot of debris in the sewers, with the drought and all and this 3-6 inches of rain just piling up. kinda like a mini Allison event
Quoting RitaEvac:


Must be a lot of debris in the sewers, with the drought and all and this 3-6 inches of rain just piling up. kinda like a mini Allison event


Yes that is exactly what it is. All the debris is clogging up the drains and Houston doesn't have a great drainage system to begin with. They have spent millions trying to fix it and it has improved but with 4-6 inches of rain in 2-3 hours, I don't really think anything can fix that considering Houston is literally a giant slab of cement.
This is the 336-hr frame from the 12Z GFS. It shows an EPIC snowstorm for the Eastern Seaboard, with extremely cold air following behind. And while I know that this is a while out, the model has shown consistency, and the storm it depicts gets more impressive each run.



P.S. When I say epic, I mean my area would get ~12 inches, and the NE would get up to 2 feet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is the 336-hr frame from the 12Z GFS. It shows an EPIC snowstorm for the Eastern Seaboard, with extremely cold air following behind. And while I know that this is a while out, the model has shown consistency, and the storm it depicts gets more impressive each run.



P.S. When I say epic, I mean my area would get ~12 inches, and the NE would get up to 2 feet.


But 336 hours leaves a lot of time for it to change....
*12 inches, and the NE would get up to 2 feet*

OK, I didn't wish for this much :) Hope it doesn't work out this way!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


But 336 hours leaves a lot of time for it to change....

Yes, it does, but as I said, the model has shown consistency.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is the 336-hr frame from the 12Z GFS. It shows an EPIC snowstorm for the Eastern Seaboard, with extremely cold air following behind. And while I know that this is a while out, the model has shown consistency, and the storm it depicts gets more impressive each run.



P.S. When I say epic, I mean my area would get ~12 inches, and the NE would get up to 2 feet.


0.o o.0 O.O

Man.. 14 days, this is around the time that the NAO is forecast to slowly go negative(i think) but who cares about that if this comes i would like that! 9+ 14 = 23, so this would be January 23rd. and if you got 12 inches I would get 8-12, so i could have WHITE BIRTHDAY!!!! +50 for posting that forecast!
bY tHe WaY...HeRe Is ThE Link tO mY nEw BlOg
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is the 336-hr frame from the 12Z GFS. It shows an EPIC snowstorm for the Eastern Seaboard, with extremely cold air following behind. And while I know that this is a while out, the model has shown consistency, and the storm it depicts gets more impressive each run.



P.S. When I say epic, I mean my area would get ~12 inches, and the NE would get up to 2 feet.


No offense, but I still don't understand why people place so much emphasis on long-term prognostications like this.

Then again, it's a hell of a lot better than relying on long-term tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from computer models. Synoptic scale meteorology seems to be a bit easier to predict than a hurricane, since those storms are still not well understood, and initializaton is an issue.

Nonetheless, the GFS is very good at predicting the long-term synoptic pattern. However, the precise details depicted within the model should always be ignored two weeks out. For instance, why bother glancing at that impressive snowstorm, when in reality it likely won't even go down in that way?
Quoting KoritheMan:


No offense, but I still don't understand why people place so much emphasis on long-term prognostications like this.

Then again, it's a hell of a lot better than relying on long-term tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from computer models. Synoptic scale meteorology seems to be a bit easier to predict than a hurricane, since those storms are still not well understood, and initializaton is an issue.

Nonetheless, the GFS is very good at predicting the long-term synoptic pattern. However, the precise details depicted within the model should always be ignored two weeks out. For instance, why bother glancing at that impressive snowstorm, when in reality it likely won't even go down in that way?

Why do we track tropical disturbances, when in reality it likely won't even develop into anything?
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yes that is exactly what it is. All the debris is clogging up the drains and Houston doesn't have a great drainage system to begin with. They have spent millions trying to fix it and it has improved but with 4-6 inches of rain in 2-3 hours, I don't really think anything can fix that considering Houston is literally a giant slab of cement.
Not to mention basiclly built in the swamp....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do we track tropical disturbances, when in reality it likely won't even develop into anything?
'Cause we're paranoid???
6.06 inches of rain at my place near the NWS.

HOLY................ S.....
Quoting RitaEvac:
6.06 inches of rain at my place near the NWS.

HOLY................ S.....


half a foot
grey overcast day, all day here in Mid TN.. no wind, no sun, no nothing.. I would not survive in Seattle! Hope we get some of the moisture over here soon.. forecast calling for 20%-40% precip. over the next couple of days and then the coooooollllldddddd hits..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do we track tropical disturbances, when in reality it likely won't even develop into anything?
Quoting KoritheMan:


No offense, but I still don't understand why people place so much emphasis on long-term prognostications like this.
because that's what weather enthusiasts do
next one ya gets a foot or more
KOTG, that's more rain in a few hrs than this past summer in 6 months time
water giver of life


guess there is a late shift at the pump houses tonight in orleans
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do we track tropical disturbances, when in reality it likely won't even develop into anything?


maybe cuz we dont really know which disturbance will dvlop until we see the way it interacts with the environment around it, the good parts and the bad? heck idk, lol. I do it for something to do :D

(And if my predictions verify before JTWC or NHC does, i am one happy camper!)
Well, GFS says my cold day gon be this saturday, with a high of 42. nice drop from 60 :D
Quoting RitaEvac:
6.06 inches of rain at my place near the NWS.

HOLY................ S.....
funny how things change
Quoting RitaEvac:
KOTG, that's more rain in a few hrs than this past summer in 6 months time
so we just need 32 more inches to catch up now??
Quoting JNCali:
so we just need 32 more inches to catch up now??


18-20 in a small local area
Radar grossly underestimated rainfall totals, but probably because it's near the cone of silence, not sure why
GEAUX TIGERS
Just updated for West Palm Beach...



Storm on the GFS for next Monday. Third consecutive run it has shown up and not in an unreasonable time range too.
Quoting weatherh98:
GEAUX TIGERS


There's a Honey Badger Sniffing around the Superdome,,

...early reports say its not likely to be stopped.

The NAO is actually trending toward the negative..Some models take it down to -3 or -4..The NAO did reach those values last January.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Storm on the GFS for next Monday. Third consecutive run it has shown up and not in an unreasonable time range too.
Not surprising at all Geek...its that time of year anyway. This time last year y,all were gettin spanked..:)
50 degrees is the forecast low tomorrow night here in Mid TN.. almost 20 degrees warmer than average. Saving on utilities this winter for sure!!
0.2 inches at Reagan National airport in DC is biggest of this winter. 0.2 inches also fell in 10 minutes during Snowmageddon.....
Quoting hydrus:
Not surprising at all Geek...its that time of year anyway. This time last year y,all were gettin spanked..:)
Quoting presslord:


you wish
Quoting WxGeekVA:
0.2 inches at Reagan National airport in DC is biggest of this winter. 0.2 inches also fell in 10 minutes during Snowmageddon.....

In other news, Midland, Texas--of all places--has broken its winter snowfall record. This is Midland, mind you, which in 2011 saw one of its driest years ever recorded.
ISSUED 304 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SUN HAS MADE IT OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ACROSS THE MID STATE ARE IN THE 50S AT MID-AFTERNOON. SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST WITH SLOW EROSION CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. MODELS HOLD BULK OF MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALABAMA
BORDER OVERNIGHT BUT BRING IT BACK NORTHWARD BEGINNING JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH IN MIDDLE TN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS TUESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM WORKS UP
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH UPPER LOW DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHOWERS LINGER IN BEHIND SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS
COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLD FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT QUICKLY
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GFS MODEL WITH NO CONTINUITY TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE
12Z EURO HAS MORE OF A LA NINA TYPE PATTERN WITH REASONABLY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. SO WENT WITH THE EURO IN THE FORECAST.

AS WE GET OUT INTO THE LAST HALF OF JANUARY ARCTIC AIR BUILDS OVER
ALASKA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND INTO WESTERN PROVINCES
OF CANADA. A SOUTHWARD PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UNITED STATES COULD
BE IN THE MAKING AS WE GO INTO THE LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS OF JANUARY
AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO GO STRONGLY NEGATIVE. BACK
IN JANUARY 1985 WE HAD A VERY MILD FIRST 2 TO 3 WEEKS OF JANUARY
THEN NASHVILLE FELL TO -17 BELOW ZERO (ALL-TIME RECORD LOW) ON
JANUARY 21ST 1985 WITH 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. CERTAINLY
NOT FORECASTING ANYTHING LIKE BUT WE MUST REMEMBER...WINTER STILL
HAS A WAYS TO GO.
OK....that was weird....
Quoting Neapolitan:

In other news, Midland, Texas--of all places--has broken its winter snowfall record. This is Midland, mind you, which in 2011 saw one of its driest years ever recorded.


Not. Fair.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
0.2 inches at Reagan National airport in DC is biggest of this winter. 0.2 inches also fell in 10 minutes during Snowmageddon.....
But I'm happy either way to see something on the ground.I thought we were just gonna get a few flurries and that's it.But looks like we got a little something so I'm proud of that :).
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Not. Fair.
You are asking for it...I think your goin to get the blizz soon.
Quoting presslord:
OK....that was weird....
A cold " drink " will rinse out your head gear with fervor....Do not fear it, imbibe it....cherish it
Haven't seen Grothar on lately. Is he off on another trip?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



Most definitely. The trees are loving it too. The Forestry Service said the drought killed half a billion trees in the E TX piney woods alone. Not including those lost to fire. This has been just crazy. Just yesterday they were telling people here not to pull off the pavement if you had car trouble so your catalytic converter wouldn't start yet another fire. Big sighs of relief going round all over. :)
This is also a sign that La nina is falling apart.
Quoting RitaEvac:


18-20 in a small local area
No one in Texas will catch up from last years drought without some tropical floods, it is better around here but still no runoff going in area Lakes past 15 months. Here in South Central Texas we are down 20 inches, received .30 today, it is going to take a tropical system to fill up the Lakes around here. Southeast Texas is a different story they get these heavy rains like La. does. We have had quite a bit of rain past 3 months but No water is going into the Lakes because the rains have not been heavy enough.
Downtown Houston Flooding With Hilarious Dancing Manhole Cover and Metro Rail Suspension



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
555 PM CST Monday Jan 9 2012


Previous discussion... /issued 405 PM CST Monday Jan 9 2012/


Severe weather and heavy rain a concern for tomorrow...


Synopsis...surface low developing along the central Texas coast. The old stalled boundary is draped across central/northestern MS through central/southwestern la and into the surface low. Broad high pressure is pretty much noted across much of the middle portion of the entire country from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Our 500 mb low is located over the Texas Big Bend
with deep southwesterly flow over eastern Texas and the western Gulf. Large ridge over the Pacific SW with the ridge axis extending to the NE throughNevada...Utah and twrds the Idaho/Wyoming border.

Quite a bit of convection still occurring over southeastern Texas...into the Gulf and even into southwestern la.






Short term...mostly quiet cloudy day over the bi-state region. Even with the mostly cloudy skies we were still able to warm up nicely with highs in the 70s over the entire County Warning Area which is about 10-15 degree above normal. Overall we have remained mostly rain free today but there is a shield of rain with embedded thunderstorms and rain trying to quickly
move in across the Atchafalaya and into our County Warning Area.



Tonight through tomorrow night...this is the focus of the forecast with both severe and heavy rainfall possible. As for our system...the middle level
low currently over the Texas Big Bend region will continue to slowly work east over night and should be moving twrds eastern Texas tomorrow morning. The system will continue to work east-northeast and should be in MS or moving into Alabama by sunrise Wednesday.

A sub-tropical jet with a jet core of 120 kts is currently running at the base of the low and will round the low tonight working across the lower MS valley Tuesday. This is what will help the low pull east tonight and then out of the area by early Wednesday.

At the surface...a low pressure system...which is already developing will move over the Texas/la border this evn. Latest indications now show the surface low continuing on a more north-northeast track and into southwestern Arkansas and deepening. The surface low will continue to deepen and move off to the NE and should be entering Tennessee before sunrise Wednesday.

This will drive a cold front through the area tomorrow. Before that happens though the stalled boundary which is currently just north of the County Warning Area will remain in place through the evn before pulling off to the north during the early morning hours. This boundary could be the focus for rain showers and embedded thunderstorms and rain development tonight across southwestern MS and adjacent la parishes.

A broken line of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain are expected with the cold front tomorrow and there is even the possibility of a few storms to develop ahead of the cold front as accent increases(lowering 500 mb hghts) over the County Warning Area.
Some pretty nice official 24-hour rainfall totals for a few Texas stations: 4.95" in Conroe, 4.05" at Houston Hobby, > 2" in Terrell, Beaumont, Hunstville, & Pearland, etc. Nice...
Good evening.

Blog updated
This is what the backyard looked like a few hours ago.


Picture Credit: Me..
(i took)
rain rain rain...go away!
gee im bored. i guess i could upload the weather pics i took last week...lol.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
No one in Texas will catch up from last years drought without some tropical floods, it is better around here but still no runoff going in area Lakes past 15 months. Here in South Central Texas we are down 20 inches, received .30 today, it is going to take a tropical system to fill up the Lakes around here. Southeast Texas is a different story they get these heavy rains like La. does. We have had quite a bit of rain past 3 months but No water is going into the Lakes because the rains have not been heavy enough.


Today was first torrential rains to runoff into basins, and reservoirs in over a year. Was like a tropical storm rain event, 6 inches
What's amazing is around the houses, there is no more standing water, the ground and foundations have apparently sucked it all up. open fields have standing water, big huge detention basins are filled up to the top, haven't seen it like this since hurricane Ike. And honestly we need another rain event just like this again say in 2 weeks time, still some 20 inches behind
725. BtnTx
Go LSU !
Would I be correct in assuming that Alaska is North of this AO bubble that has been keeping all of the cold air up north?

Via NPR: In Cordova, about 150 miles southeast of Anchorage, "dozens of National Guard troops have arrived to help ... dig out from massive snows that have collapsed roofs, trapped some people in homes, and triggered avalanches," The Associated Press reports.

Guard officials tell the AP there's been about 18 feet of snow in Cordova so far this season. The National Weather Service warns that another storm is headed Cordova's way on Tuesday.

Cordova Mayor Jim Kallander just told NPR's Melissa Block that what's happening in his city is "precedent-setting" and that "nobody's seen snow like this in recent history ... even the old-timers say we're breaking new ground."
Link
Our local meteorologist are calling this a "surprise" snow event.
Hello people, I am from Michigan where there is no snow on the ground.
Quoting charlesimages:
Hello people, I am from Michigan where there is no snow on the ground.


Michigan sounds a lot like New York :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local meteorologist are calling this a "surprise" snow event.


I'm not surprised that there was snow, nor accumulating snow. I just thought it would be less than there was.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local meteorologist are calling this a "surprise" snow event.

Well, the NWS definitely got it wrong...They had sunshine for D.C. two days ago XD
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local meteorologist are calling this a "surprise" snow event.


Did it snow in DC today?

Edit: Just found the earlier related posts.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm not surprised that there was snow, nor accumulating snow. I just thought it would be less than there was.


Me on Friday:

548. WxGeekVA 2:03 PM GMT on January 06, 2012 0
Link

Interesting trend has developed on the 06Z GFS with wave of low pressure that tracks across the southeast which has an area of snow on the northern flank. Takes the area of snow over DC from hour 78-96. We'll see if this is just one fleeting glimpse on the 12Z run. It shows up somewhat on the NAM but slower and warmer.

The link is hour 84.
Mystery disease kills 100 in Uganda
Last Updated: Sunday, January 08, 2012,20:54

Kampala: A mystery disease has killed over 100 people and infected more than 2,000 in northern Uganda.

The disease, first reported in September 2009, has since been dubbed "nodding disease" as it leaves its victims nodding, Xinhua reported.

Spread over the region`s five districts, the disease is characterised by head nodding, mental retardation and stunted growth and affects children and young adults. It causes young children and adolescents to nod violently while eating.

Scientists are to launch a series of investigations as the previous efforts couldn`t identify the disease`s cause.

The two previous samples and tests carried out by Centres for Disease Control (CDC) scientists in Atlanta in the US failed to identify the cause of the disease, said Richard Nduhura, minister of state for health in charge of general duties.

A team of scientists from the ministry of health, World Health Organisation (WHO) and CDC is going to carry out new tests, said Nduhura, who is leading a fact finding mission in the affected areas.

Link
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Did it snow in DC today?


Yes:

"Sneaky" Snow Event
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Michigan sounds a lot like New York :)
Yes, and it has been just wonderful! But there was that one day...
blogging in haiku
makes one think before one writes
a wise endeavor?
Texas thunder booms.
The skies open, the rain falls!
Wet happy people.
Hi Brian...Hope things are well with you! Good to see you posting again.
Things are well Geoffrey
a haiku meme is spreading
throughout the base now
ROLL TIDE ROLL!!
snow flies through the night
tree branches fluffy and white
soft and hidden world
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Michigan sounds a lot like New York :)


nothing here in Fargo either. In fact, I worked in short sleeves today
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
snow flies through the night
tree branches fluffy and white
soft and hidden world


starting some poetry there? :D
Quoting displacedFloridian:


nothing here in Fargo either. In fact, I worked in short sleeves today


Short sleeves... that's actually impressive for North Dakota in January.
yes beater I am
haiku meme has my brain trapped
there is no escape!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
snow flies through the night
tree branches fluffy and white
soft and hidden world

That's haiku, isn't it?
five, seven, and five
syllables for each line of
a three line poem.
weathernerd I am
writing haiku for all of
my comments tonight.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
weathernerd I am
writing haiku for all of
my comments tonight.

baltimorebrian
why are you writing haiku
I am very tired.
Dry January
turns wet this week for many
forsooth the drought's end?
oh my he wont stop the poetry until the morning..which, starts in 19 minutes LOL
The Storm that roared and took so much

Took the Tide to their knee's, why Lord so much?

Tonight we saw how Courage can be,

The Tide has turned, the Crimson are we.




Congratulations to Alabama on Winning the BCS National Championship.

A Fitting testament to a Team that carried the Hopes of a Region Devastated last April.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

baltimorebrian
why are you writing haiku
I am very tired.


It is morning and
I am awake and bright-eyed
for now it is fun.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
blogging in haiku
makes one think before one writes
a wise endeavor?


Haha that's funny
in my English class we are
working on haikus
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
snow flies through the night
tree branches fluffy and white
soft and hidden world

Very nice haiku
I wish I had your talent
cuz I am no good
Excellent Taylor!
Is San Diego weather
always the same thing? ;)
reading an army
memorandum makes my eyes
tired and blurry.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


It is morning and
I am awake and bright-eyed
for now it is fun.

It is night and I
am red-eyed much like autumn's
crimson setting sun
If you like Taylor
you may copy that haiku
for your English class
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Excellent Taylor!
Is San Diego weather fun
or the same always? ;)

The same as always -
today the sun shown bright few
light clouds drifted by
Quoting TomTaylor:


Haha that's funny
in my English class we are
working on haikus

Actually, Tom, you
should know haiku is written
the same in plural.
Quoting TomTaylor:

It is night and I
am red-eyed much like autumn's
crimson setting sun



Oooh that is very
good and awesome for late on
a boring school night!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
If you like Taylor
you may copy that haiku
for your English class

I was just thinking
the same since tonight I must
compose three haikus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Actually, Tom, you
should know haiku is written
the same in plural.


Now, now weathernerd
don't be too pendantic now
let Taylor have fun!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Actually, Tom, you
should know haiku is written
the same in plural.
My bad weathernerd
perhaps you should become an
English professor
San Diego surf
rising and falling echoes
waves reaching their end.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Now, now weathernerd
don't be too pendantic now
let Taylor have fun!
BaltimoreBrian,
thanks, but why on this fine night
do you write haiku?
774. BtnTx
Quoting Patrap:
The Storm that roared and took so much

Took the Tide to their knee's, why Lord so much?

Tonight we saw how Courage can be,

The Tide has turned, the Crimson are we.




Congratulations to Alabama on Winning the BCS National Championship.

A Fitting testament to a Team that carried the Hopes of a Region Devastated last April.
Well said Pat
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
San Diego surf
rising and falling echoes
waves reaching their end.

Another haiku,
you are two for three my dear
BaltimoreBrian
El Puerto Rico
verde sagrada isla
hermoso lugar
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Now, now weathernerd
don't be too pendantic now
let Taylor have fun!

hey, I am a nerd
oh seriously, what could you
possibly expect?
Quoting TomTaylor:

Another haiku,
you are two for three my dear
BaltimoreBrian



Clouds roll like cotton
across the cerulean sky
what shapes do you see?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

hey, I am a nerd
oh seriously, what could you
possibly expect?


I expect seven
syllables in the middle
line of the haiku :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Clouds roll like cotton
across the cerulean sky
what shapes do you see?
That is an A-plus
my man, thank you oh so much,
Brian of ball-more
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I expect seven
syllables in the middle
line of the haiku :)
Perhaps WeatherNerd
Is not fit for professor
of English studies =p
sorry, i must go
this will be my last haiku
for tonight, bloggers
Time for me to go
be kind to those around you
my work will not wait
Tres Palmas watching
wave lines in the horizon
waiting my sunset

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Clouds roll like cotton
across the cerulean sky
what shapes do you see?



Taylor please do not
use that haiku, deformed by
eight syllables Ackkk!!


Clouds roll like cotton
across the indigo sky
what shapes do you see?
Clouds roll like cotton
on a cerulean sky
what shapes do you see?
I'm gonna feel awful if Taylor uses that haiku and doesn't see the corrected versions.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm gonna feel awful if Taylor uses that haiku and doesn't see the corrected versions.
all is well my friend
for I have seen the mistake
and shall use the other


I probably won't
use them all, but thanks Brian
I must go now though
Oh my Baltimore
I think I must rest from this
poetry you write!
goodnight all bloggers
The poems have me sleepy
I really must sleep!
I'm glad you came back Taylor, I was afraid you'd get a bad homework grade cause of me!

I forgot cerulean has 4 syllables. Glad you came back.

Now I have to get back to work.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm glad you came back Taylor, I was afraid you'd get a bad homework grade cause of me!

I forgot cerulean has 4 syllables. Glad you came back.

Now I have to get back to work.
yeah me too, I got a calculus final to study for.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 07U
3:00 PM WST January 10 2012
=========================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Low 07U (1002 hPa) located at 15.4S 119.3E or 550 km north of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 9 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.4S 118.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 19.2S 118.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.3S 115.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.6S 113.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

A tropical low north of Western Australia has showed persistent convection near the center during the day. The low level center is obscured by cloud and difficult to determine. FT has been set at 2.0 based on MET and curved band.

The system is currently in an area of low to moderate shear and warm sea surface temperature suggesting that further development is likely in the next 24 hours. Despite this, all model guidance forecast a system with gales confined southeast of the center in the squeeze between the low and a ridge to the south and hence not strictly a tropical cyclone. While this remains the most probable scenario, the likely impact to the Pilbara coast of gales and heavy rain will be consistent with that of a category 1 tropical cyclone.

The low is expected to move southwards over the next 12 to 24 hours before taking a more southwestwards turn as it get closer to the coast. During this period shear increases and the low level circulation is likely to weaken and move more westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
18:00 PM FST January 10 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1003 hPa) located at 20.0S 169.0W is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Convection remains persistent with the low level circulation center difficult to locate. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. 05F lies under the 250 HPA ridge axis and along a surface trough. 05F lies under a low to moderate sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly moving it southwest with little intensification.

The potential for 05F to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to MODERATE.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do we track tropical disturbances, when in reality it likely won't even develop into anything?


Because tropical disturbances are very real, tangible, and not within the ungodly realm of long-range weather forecasting?
Track the storms we do
Beyond the horizon come
To your house maybe
New shower curtain
Bust the trough and pump the ridge
must be JFV
good morning all,, the moon is showing through at least 2 layers of cirrus and cumulus at this early hour..
the old sprouting flowers argument.
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...A SECOND
ENERGY IMPULSE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SE TO
NRN GULF BY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A LARGE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
HELP TO PUSH A DRIER, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRNT DOWN THE
PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRI EVENING. ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

For West Palm Beach...

Apropos of the blog entry, it's now been one month since there were more record low temperatures than record high temperatures in the U.S.; December 10 was the last such day. Since then, record high and high minimum temps have outnumbered record low and low maximums by a whopping 4,098 to 296, a ratio of 13.8 to 1.

If you look closely at the following same-date maps, you may be able to detect a slight difference between 2011 and 2012:

uh-oh

uh-oh

To be sure, other years even in the past decade have seen much lower snow water equivalences than 2010--but even when the nation as a whole has been "drier", the Sierras and other western mountains have been alright. IOW, if things don't change, California especially is going to be in trouble.
Cause we see TC Heidi out of this tropical low, Only time will tell.







Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 9:01 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
415 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
515 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low has
strengthened over the past 6 hours, and is now producing gales over offshore
waters to the south of the centre. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone
on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per
hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning,
extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.
Looking at National Temps just about everyone is above freezing or way above freezing, hard to have snow when it so warm. :) What a mild to warm Winter everyone is having. Here in Texas I hope this Summer isn't as Pathetic as last Summer but the forecast is for another Baking for most of Texas.
I see I'm not the only one with one eye to the moon when making the coming rain forecast.. From MLB NWS..

THE LAST TWO NIGHTS HAVE SEEN A PROMINENT HALO DVLP AROUND THE FULL
MOON...A CLASSIC SIGN OF PREFRONTAL MOISTENING THAT OFTEN PRECEDES
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WILL GO WITH 80 POPS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA... DECREASING TO 60/70 POPS OVER THE SE HALF AS THE STRONG AND
DEEP SWRLY FLOW PUSHES THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ACRS THE N HALF OF
THE STATE. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL BUT SVR WX UNLIKELY AS A TEMP BULGE
IN THE H70-H60 LYR WILL PREVENT DEEP LYR LAPSE RATES FROM BECOMING
TOO STEEP...THUS KEEPING TOTAL INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST.

BRAGAW
NWS calling for a temperature drop of a solid 10 degrees here in the Hudson Valley as we head into the weekend and early next week. it's been in the 40-47 degree range since..forever, but temperatures only looking to top out around 33-36 starting Friday.

Of course, it is supposed to remain dry during that time, but we'll work on that later. First step temps, second step precip. -We'll have a real winter yet ...i hope.
Quoting Skyepony:
I see I'm not the only one with one eye to the moon when making the coming rain forecast.. From MLB NWS..

THE LAST TWO NIGHTS HAVE SEEN A PROMINENT HALO DVLP AROUND THE FULL
MOON...A CLASSIC SIGN OF PREFRONTAL MOISTENING THAT OFTEN PRECEDES
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WILL GO WITH 80 POPS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA... DECREASING TO 60/70 POPS OVER THE SE HALF AS THE STRONG AND
DEEP SWRLY FLOW PUSHES THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ACRS THE N HALF OF
THE STATE. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL BUT SVR WX UNLIKELY AS A TEMP BULGE
IN THE H70-H60 LYR WILL PREVENT DEEP LYR LAPSE RATES FROM BECOMING
TOO STEEP...THUS KEEPING TOTAL INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST.

BRAGAW
We get those halo,s before hurricanes thanks to the cirrus overcast too. I would say that they are a pretty good indicator of precip.