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Remarkable Super Typhoon Nuri Maintains 180 mph Winds for 24 Hours

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:12 PM GMT on November 03, 2014

In the Western Pacific, Super Typhoon Nuri exploded into a mighty Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds on Sunday, and has maintained that strength for a remarkable 24 hours. Nuri intensified from a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds to a very high-end Category 5 with 180 mph winds on Sunday. The central pressure dropped 65 mb in 24 hours, down to 910 mb, as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Nuri is tied with Super Typhoon Vongfong for strongest tropical cyclone sustained wind speed of 2014; both had sustained winds estimated at 180 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Vonfong hit Japan's Okinawa Island on October 11 as a Category 1 storm, and killed 9 people and caused $68 million in damage. However, Vongfong was slightly more intense as rated by minimum pressure--the Japan Meteorological Agency put Vongfong's central pressure at 900 mb at peak intensity, 10 mb lower than Nuri's. Nuri may pass close enough to Japan on Thursday to bring them heavy rain, but a direct hit is unlikely. The GFS and European models are both predicting the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Nuri will become a sub-925 mb low in the western Aleutian Islands on Friday night and Saturday morning, with the 12Z Monday run of the European model predicting ex-Nuri will bottom out at 916 mb at 06Z Saturday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the all-time Alaska low pressure record is 926 mb at Dutch Harbor on October 25, 1977, so ex-Nuri has a chance to beat that record.


Figure 1. Infrared VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Nuri as seen at 04:44 UTC November 2, 2014. At the time, Nuri was an intensifying Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA.


Figure 2. Visible VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Nuri as seen at 04:25 UTC November 3, 2014. At the time, Nuri was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Nuri in the Pacific at 04:20 UTC November 3, 2014. At the time, Nuri had top sustained winds of 180 mph, tying it for strongest tropical cyclone of 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Nuri is Earth's fifth Category 5 storm of 2014
Nuri is Earth's fifth Category 5 storm of the year, and the third in the Western Pacific. In addition to Super Typhoon Vongfong, the other Western Pacific Cat 5 in 2014 was Super Typhoon Halong, which topped out at 160 mph winds on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm. Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China's Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season reanalysis. The Eastern Pacific has had two Cat 5s in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds) and Genevieve (160 mph winds.) The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.


Video 1. The cameras on the International Space Station captured this video of Super Typhoon Nuri on November 2, 2014. At the time, Nuri was an intensifying Category 4 typhoon.

Hurricane Vance a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
Hurricane Vance in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico has likely peaked in intensity and should steadily weaken as high wind shear of 20 knots tears into the storm. Satellite images show that Vance has an impressive area of spiral bands and heavy thunderstorms, except on its southwest side, where strong upper-level winds are disrupting the storm. Vance was getting pulled to the north by a trough of low pressure on Monday, will turn to the northeast on Tuesday, but might not make it all the way to Mexico. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would rise to 40 knots by Tuesday morning, which will likely be able to tear Vance apart before landfall. Flooding rains will be the primary threat from Vance; heavy rains of 4 - 8" will affect the Mexican coast northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday, and heavy rains of 3 - 6" may affect portions of Texas by Wednesday. In their 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave a 4 - 12% chance that Vance would bring tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph to Puerto Vallarta and the tip of the Baja Peninsula.


Figure 4. Hurricane Vance off the coast of Mexico as seen by GOES West at 9:45 EST (1445 UTC) on November 3, 2014. At the time, Vance was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters, glad to see you.
Fri Nov 7
weather.com
Mostly Sunny
71°

45°

Mostly Sunny

Chance of rain:10% Wind:NW at 12 mph
the cold air looks like a repeat of 2010 again
I'm surprised that the historic winter storm -- that delivered the first measurable Halloween snow in Chicago, the earliest snowfall on record in Columbia, SC, record-breaking snow of a foot to two feet in Maine (plus non-record-breaking snowfall totals near two feet in the NC/TN mountains), and record low temperatures as far south as Florida -- has not been mentioned.
Alaska is going to have a rough weekend.
Thanks, Dr. Masters. especially for the updates from around the worid.
Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm surprised that the historic winter storm -- that delivered the first measurable Halloween snow in Chicago, the earliest snowfall on record in Columbia, SC, record-breaking snow of a foot to two feet in Maine (plus non-record-breaking snowfall totals near two feet in the NC/TN mountains), and record low temperatures as far south as Florida -- has not been mentioned.
I named that winter storm Andrew and because of historic snow and power outages it has been replaced with Ash.
From the last blog:

Quoting 429. washingtonian115:

If el nino is declared in December I highly doubt it'll last through the summer of 2015.I think if it dissipates by early spring could have something like 1998


I'd personally lean more towards a multi-yr warm ENSO event, but if we don't meet El Nino criteria (as defined by CPC- 5 successive tri-monthlies in NINO 3.4 >/=.5C), we'd be treading uncharted territory as far as I'm concerned, w/ the closest analogs in the comparatively less reliable pre-1950 ONI record. I agree with earlier statements made by Cody Fields, I'm also struggling to see how we'll be able to pull of a full-blown modoki El Nino, especially given the oncoming favorable downwelling Equatorial Kelvin Wave.


On the other I think it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility to think a "hybrid" El Nino event could be in order by virtue of previous events experiencing significant upwelling in this region during & just after the solstice. Hybrid El Nino events are simply an intermediary between the Classic, east-Based El Ninos that feature the strongest +anoms. hugging the west coast of South America & Modoki El Ninos w/ a definitive (from west-east in the Pacific) Cold-Warm-Cold tripole in equatorially SST anomalies... In fact, I have noticed that w/ varying degrees of intensity, many of the Hybrid El Nino events such as 2009-10, 1976-77, 1972-73, 1965-66 1957-58, & 1951-52 actually started off with the canonical east-based El Nino signature...


However, as the fall & winter progressed, the El Ninos went astray from the other classical events like 1997-98, 1982-83, & 2006-07, and the strongest +SST anomalies sloshed westward into the NINO 3-4 regions, while leaving NINO 1-2 still warmer than normal, thus not fully satisfying the definition of a modoki El Nino....



The other events (1986-87, 1991-92, 1994-94, 2002-03) actually inverted, starting in the central Pacific & migrating eastward with increasing time. This led me to think that although I argue that the PDO is just a reddened response to ENSO & has a seemingly negligible influence on individual ENSO events, it's obvious from looking at Hybrid El Ninos the multidecadal PDO phase had an effect on the behavior of the evolution of Hybrid El Ninos, with +PDO Hybrid Events beginning in the central Pacific and migrating eastward, while -PDO Hybrid El Ninos started in NINO 1-2 and started to fade late in their lifetimes into the central Pacific...

I've already posted this here before, but you can see not only in terms of SSTs, but also US temps, winter 500mb pattern, etc. Hybrid El Ninos serve as a nice blend of Modoki & Traditional El Nino types despite the fact that large amounts of variance are noted outside the SST composites in all categories...



Also, it's worth mentioning that when viewing Levi Cowan's NINO region temperature plots, you must consider that NOAA uses OISSTv2 (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Version 2) while he uses CDAS. Caution must be particularly exercised when interpreting NINO 1-2 SSTs & trends as this NINO is notoriously volatile, and I deem it likely that turbulent eddy mixing due a brief trade wind surge following the formation of Vince in the E Pac contributed to the cooling SSTs noted in Levi's NINO 1-2 SST analysis. I also suspect there may be some phase locking with the positioning of upper level velocity potential associated w/ the passage of the MJO & CCKWs and NINO 1-2 temps.


SST spike ~Oct 18, I noted at the time using Mike Ventrice's Equatorial Wave VP 200 diagrams, the CCKW & MJO are both generally overhead or juxtaposed slightly west of the NINO 1-2 region, which implies increased potential for a westerly wind bursts considering this somewhat conceptual model derived of course from Matsuno's (1966) postulations of Quasi-Geostrophic Motions & Equatorially trapped waves on a shallow-water equatorial beta-plane...


The very robust -VP anomalies towards the left side of the diagram in early-mid Sept in accordance w/ dynamical coupling of the MJO & CCKW over the Maritime Continent & Western Pacific, east of the NINO 1-2 regions shows up nicely in the NINO 1-2 CDAS SSTs. Hard to miss the drastic dip in anomalies around mid Sept...



You can also pick up the sudden trade wind burst in the 850mb wind anomalies (blue= anomalous easterlies, yellow/orange=anomalous westerlies)
Quoting 10. TampaWeatherBuff:


I love Wunderground of all the weather sites out there. Cleanest, most usable interface, most accurate weather information in real-time. Awesome community. I happily pay my $5/yr cover charge. But the good Dr. has gone all-in on the global warming bandwagon and won't let too many counter-factual stories like that interfere with a perfectly predictable agenda to confirm global warming every chance he can reasonably do so editorially -- which includes the power to ignore certain stories, and give extra attention to others. Toward that end a normal super-typhoon is more useful than an extraordinary winter storm.


I would suspect the if you were to talk to climate scientists, they would be inclined to tell you that the winter storm just past is more likely in a warming world (at least to the point where the overall temperature negates snowfall). So in this context, either the winter storm just past or the super typhoon in the Pacific would fit the bill.

Notice I said "more likely", not "directly caused by". Climate change is the changing of the averages, not the specific events themselves.
I love Wunderground of all the weather sites out there. Cleanest, most usable interface, most accurate weather information in real-time. Awesome community. I happily pay my $5/yr cover charge. But the good Dr. has gone all-in on the global warming bandwagon and won't let too many counter-factual stories like that interfere with a perfectly predictable agenda to confirm global warming every chance he can reasonably do so editorially -- which includes the power to ignore certain stories, and give extra attention to others. Toward that end a normal super-typhoon is more useful than an extraordinary winter storm.



i'm really curious here....how can one section of the globe......as in our small area of cold weather.....negate the warm weather that was elsewhere?....does the good doc take every oppurtunity to keep people informed about AGW....he does and has stated that he would...but to say that he does it at the expense of science......BS
The ULL looks to be finally starting to develop, over Hispaniola, looks like PR is in for some heavy rains, the radar looks impressive with a MCS to the NW of the islands approaching, NWS expects 1 or 2 more developing and moving in bringing very heavy rains, we also have really big swells, in the north coast, starting to approach, and already impacting the island. I do think the NWS might issue a FLASH FLOOD WATCH if the situation continues to evolve the way it is.

By the way, if the Antarctica goes from really, really cold to only really cold, is that global warming? The point being, global warming is warming relative to average.
Thanks Doc...Those images are fantastic.
im ready for the cold weather bring a repeat of 2010
Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm surprised that the historic winter storm -- that delivered the first measurable Halloween snow in Chicago, the earliest snowfall on record in Columbia, SC, record-breaking snow of a foot to two feet in Maine (plus non-record-breaking snowfall totals near two feet in the NC/TN mountains), and record low temperatures as far south as Florida -- has not been mentioned.


Here, in the UK, we had the warmest Halloween on record, at 23.6C. That's a ridiculous 3.6 degrees warmer than the previous record of 20.0C.

Link
The latest Euro has Nuri extra-tropical, and a pressure of 920 MB in 120 hours..

yay #21 lol
hydrus can I see a temps on the gfs and the euro can I have a link plz
nuri is going to be a gender bender in the nw pacific
Quoting 22. eddye:

hydrus can I see a temps on the gfs and the euro can I have a link plz
Link to Euro....Link

Link to Temps...Link
Storms that stop intensifying at 95kt are the worst.

EP, 21, 2014110318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU,

Blackjack!

Quoting 21. blueyedbiker:

yay #21 lol
Quoting 19. yonzabam:



Here, in the UK, we had the warmest Halloween on record, at 23.6C. That's a ridiculous 3.6 degrees warmer than the previous record of 20.0C.

Link

Yeah, I was looking at that on Friday. Hopefully you guys have a cooler, snowier winter than last season. :)
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters.....
The GFS has Nuri down to 915 MB,s.......Never have I seen such a low pressure from an extra-tropical cyclone...

Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm surprised that the historic winter storm -- that delivered the first measurable Halloween snow in Chicago, the earliest snowfall on record in Columbia, SC, record-breaking snow of a foot to two feet in Maine (plus non-record-breaking snowfall totals near two feet in the NC/TN mountains), and record low temperatures as far south as Florida -- has not been mentioned.


Yea I was at least expecting Dr. Masters to discuss the snow in SC, just west of Columbia saw over 4 inches. Thought some photos of it would be here along with it.
R.I.P. Jim Leonard.


If you haven't heard of Jim, he was a true storm chasing pioneer, who has been chasing and photographing tornadoes and hurricanes since the 1970's.
Jim's Youtube channel
Quoting 28. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I was looking at that on Friday. Hopefully you guys have a cooler, snowier winter than last season. :)


All depends on what direction these new, giant, slow moving jet stream 'loops' are coming from. Could be the same as last winter's record 'severe gale' days and flooding, or a repeat of the coldest, snowiest winter since the 60s that we had in 2009/10. Or it could be just 'average'. If it's very cold in the north east US, it'll probably be stormy and wet here.
Quoting 10. TampaWeatherBuff:



I love Wunderground of all the weather sites out there. Cleanest, most usable interface, most accurate weather information in real-time. Awesome community. I happily pay my $5/yr cover charge. But the good Dr. has gone all-in on the global warming bandwagon and won't let too many counter-factual stories like that interfere with a perfectly predictable agenda to confirm global warming every chance he can reasonably do so editorially -- which includes the power to ignore certain stories, and give extra attention to others. Toward that end a normal super-typhoon is more useful than an extraordinary winter storm.


Actually, I've been working so much overtime of late that I am cutting back my hours in November, and won't be discussing every worthy weather event that happens--particulary if it falls on a weekend, like this winter storm did. We are hiring a new blogger to help me out in January.

Dr. M.
Thanks doc (haunted by too much severe weather lately). Amazing news from Nuri!

-------------------------

Already for several days forecasts are warning that torrential rains should hit southern France (area around Nizza) and northern Italy at the southern side of the Alpes, starting Tuesday November 4th. As a cold trough from low "Pia" is digging deep into Southwestern Europe (Spain), very warm and and moist air will be advected at its forefront and pushed into the above mentioned mountainous regions. All this is enhanced by the jet stream (I hope, Estofex is going to publish a new outlook soon, so that my poor explanations will be replaced by some more professional in language and insight, lol).



Source. Click to enlarge. More maps on my blog. BBL.
the gfs showing some nice cold air for Orlando for the 7th through the 9th
nakedly political objectives




s.........that's a broad statement seeing that there are scientists from every country and political persepctive of those countries that belive in AGW
Quoting 10. TampaWeatherBuff:

<...[T]he good Dr. has gone all-in on the global warming bandwagon and won't let too many counter-factual stories like that interfere with a perfectly predictable agenda to confirm global warming every chance he can reasonably do so editorially

Seeing as how the term "counterfactual" means "that which did not happen and is not happening", I for one am glad that Dr. Masters doesn't allow "too many" counter-factual stories where climate change is concerned.

CC/GW is happening. Now, people are certainly free to debate its effects, or how it might best be mitigated. But there's simply no scientific basis--absolutely none whatsoever--to keep talking about whether it's happening.

It is.

Period.
Quoting vongfong2014:
I named that winter storm Andrew and because of historic snow and power outages it has been replaced with Ash.
I was kind of hoping you'd get off this naming of winter storms thing but I guess not. On the list you go.
Quoting 30. TampaWeatherBuff:

I just don't believe CO2 is the best explanation, or even the most likely suspect.

That's the great thing about America: just like everyone else is, you're free to "believe" whatever you wish, and more power to you. But I--and many millions of others--tend to give vastly more credence to empirical science than we ever will to fickle and biased personal beliefs based on emotion and ideology, That is, we support the science.
An incredible situation might be shaping up here with the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, the result of a rare recurving 180 mph Super Typhoon in November. 12z ECMWF shows the extra-tropical remnants of Nuri all the way down to 920 mbar in the Bering Sea. What's more, look how incredibly large of a system the ECMWF is indicating it might become.

Quoting 882MB:
The ULL looks to be finally starting to develop, over Hispaniola, looks like PR is in for some heavy rains, the radar looks impressive with a MCS to the NW of the islands approaching, NWS expects 1 or 2 more developing and moving in bringing very heavy rains, we also have really big swells, in the north coast, starting to approach, and already impacting the island. I do think the NWS might issue a FLASH FLOOD WATCH if the situation continues to evolve the way it is.

Wo
Wondering how the low pressure evolved, and if it Would moved south eastward, then, turning northward, will see, interresting, after all, it's November. ..
One of the biggest Oahu North Shore swells since 1969 possibly? Energy is there, depends on track. Early in season. Wow.

Quoting 44. CybrTeddy:

An incredible situation might be shaping up here with the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, the result of a rare recurving 180 mph Super Typhoon in November. 12z ECMWF shows the extra-tropical remnants of Nuri all the way down to 920 mbar in the Bering Sea. What's more, look how incredibly large of a system the ECMWF is indicating it might become.


Quoting 44. CybrTeddy:

An incredible situation might be shaping up here with the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, the result of a rare recurving 180 mph Super Typhoon in November. 12z ECMWF shows the extra-tropical remnants of Nuri all the way down to 920 mbar in the Bering Sea. What's more, look how incredibly large of a system the ECMWF is indicating it might become.



Okay, so this would allow some serious cold air to spill across the continental US correct?? Or am I twisted?
Quoting 37. barbamz:

Thanks doc (haunted by too much severe weather lately). Amazing news from Nuri!

-------------------------

Already for several days forecasts are warning that torrential rains should hit southern France (area around Nizza) and northern Italy at the southern side of the Alpes, starting Tuesday November 4th. As a cold trough from low "Pia" is digging deep into Southwestern Europe (Spain), very warm and and moist air will be advected at its forefront and pushed into the above mentioned mountainous regions. All this is enhanced by the jet stream (I hope, Estofex is going to publish a new outlook soon, so that my poor explanations will be replaced by some more professional in language and insight, lol).



Source. Click to enlarge. More maps on my blog. BBL.


Yep. And it's all driven by the jet stream. As the winter progresses, I'd expect it to plunge much further south than its current location, bringing moisture laden air to western Europe, particularly the UK. It could get a bit wet.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
An incredible situation might be shaping up here with the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, the result of a rare recurving 180 mph Super Typhoon in November. 12z ECMWF shows the extra-tropical remnants of Nuri all the way down to 920 mbar in the Bering Sea. What's more, look how incredibly large of a system the ECMWF is indicating it might become.

It seems almost unbelievable that Nuri is not going to fill in some, at least to where it will be more like a 935 mb low. Still intense, but that's what Bering Sea storms are noted for - being intense. I had an uncle that was part of the invasion force sent to retake Attu Island from the Japanese. He said that, for four straight days, the fog, wind, and rain was so bad they rarely saw the enemy. They just set up crossing fields of fire with machine guns and mortars and kept firing into the fog. After the four days, the weather cleared a bit. There 2,000 dead Japanese killed by all this unaimed fire while the US lost 1,200 troops to weather, including frostbite, hypothermia, and pilots flying into the mountains they couldn't see and ditching at sea because they couldn't find their carriers. They lost less than 300 to direct Japaneses fire, and that was mostly in one Kamikaze charge. This battle was in May. I can't even imagine what it would be like in November.
Well by your science, Millions of people that live along a coastline should be in knee deep water by now.



really now....can you cite the source please
can we talk about the weather temps
Quoting 50. blueyedbiker:


Well by your science, Millions of people that live along a coastline should be in knee deep water by now.


Really? Sea level rise is a few millimetres a year, so why should a coast be 'knee deep in water'?
water is rising maybe an inch last 30 yrs
Thu-sun...trough aloft digs south across the eastern U.S. With axis
shifting offshore into late week. This drives a cold front through
the region Thursday night...eventually clearing south of the area Friday
morning. Moisture varies between the GFS/European model (ecmwf) with this boundary so
for now will keep a slight chance of rain as the front moves
through. Drier air building in behind will end rain chances by later
in the day Friday and into Friday night. Highs in the 80s Thursday will cool
into the 70s Friday behind the front with temperatures currently forecast to
drop down into the upper 40s and the 50s Friday night.
they are talking 10ft plus north shore of oahu next wk it could be larger but the aleutians islands are forecasted to be i the ways of some of the fetch.
Quoting 44. CybrTeddy:

An incredible situation might be shaping up here with the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, the result of a rare recurving 180 mph Super Typhoon in November. 12z ECMWF shows the extra-tropical remnants of Nuri all the way down to 920 mbar in the Bering Sea. What's more, look how incredibly large of a system the ECMWF is indicating it might become.




Let's see, we have the Canadian Clipper, the BC Blaster, the Manitoba Mauler...how does the Alaskan Asskicker sound?
Quoting hydrus:
The GFS has Nuri down to 915 MB,s.......Never have I seen such a low pressure from an extra-tropical cyclone...



I'm not sure if you saw this image I posted earlier today.
Lots of snow forecasted over the next week for Alaska and Canada.
That along with High Wind Watch for Southern Panhandle region.
Some coastal locations have 80mph gusts for Wednesday in their forecasts.

Here's the snow forecast. Over 50" in some locations by next Tuesday.
Quoting 50. blueyedbiker:


Well by your science, Millions of people that live along a coastline should be in knee deep water by now.


[citation needed]
Quoting 33. Ameister12:

R.I.P. Jim Leonard.


If you haven't heard of Jim, he was a true storm chasing pioneer, who has been chasing and photographing tornadoes and hurricanes since the 1970's.
Jim's Youtube channel



I heard he had terminal cancer at the beginning of the hurricane season. The guy made quality videos for decades, rest in peace indeed.
Chris Burt has a summary of the Southeast U.S. snowstorm now:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian /comment.html?entrynum=313

Dr. M.
Link

more bad news =(
Tom Magliozzi, Popular Co-Host Of NPR's 'Car Talk,' Dies At 77
Quoting Ameister12:
R.I.P. Jim Leonard.


If you haven't heard of Jim, he was a true storm chasing pioneer, who has been chasing and photographing tornadoes and hurricanes since the 1970's.
Jim's Youtube channel
I think he was one of the first chasers to put his videos on YouTube. I had a chance to see his work going all the way back to the early 90's. He was always professional about his work, never took crazy chances, and didn't scream like a little girl while he was taping. He was one of the few chasers about my age and I enjoyed his work a lot. I'll miss him.
32 Miles WSW Craig AK (Out on Baker Island)

Detailed Forecast:

Wednesday Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 47. East wind 30 to 40 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Gotcha, a little too far north. But hey 10'+ Hawaiian scale is nothing to sneeze at. Some pros won't even paddle out in that size. The locals will be killing it for sure.

Quoting 56. islander101010:

they are talking 10ft plus north shore of oahu next wk it could be larger but the aleutians islands are forecasted to be i the ways of some of the fetch.
In some good news for today, 1 World Trade Center officially opened to the first tenant, Conde Nast Publishing, 13 years after the attacks of 9/11. The new building is called the most secure office building in the country as well as being the most able to resist the type of attack that took down the Twin Towers. Hopefully, we'll never have to find out the truth of those claims. Link
Quoting 43. Neapolitan:


That's the great thing about America: just like everyone else is, you're free to "believe" whatever you wish, and more power to you. But I--and many millions of others--tend to give vastly more credence to empirical science than we ever will to fickle and biased personal beliefs based on emotion and ideology, That is, we support the science.


This seems particularly appropriate:

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”


― Isaac Asimov

Isn't Nuri Earth's sixth rather than fifth Category 5? 3 Western Pacific + 2 Eastern Pacific + 1 South Indian = 6.
Alaska -coastal rains, heavy mountain snows
Sad news. Irreplaceable.

Quoting 64. MAstu:

Link

more bad news =(
Tom Magliozzi, Popular Co-Host Of NPR's 'Car Talk,' Dies At 77
Quoting 44. CybrTeddy:

An incredible situation might be shaping up here with the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, the result of a rare recurving 180 mph Super Typhoon in November. 12z ECMWF shows the extra-tropical remnants of Nuri all the way down to 920 mbar in the Bering Sea. What's more, look how incredibly large of a system the ECMWF is indicating it might become.




Reminds me somewhat of earlier this year, when the UK got battered by around 8+ sub 950 mb extratropical storms (one of them going down to 929 mb). This doesn't look to great for the UK having the pattern like this. Could mean another warm/wet winter.
110 mph in Vance? Really? -.-"
I wouldn't get too worked up over Climate Change. I just started reading 'Our Last Invention' about Artificial Super Intelligence.

Machines are gonna 'repurpose' our atoms long before Climate Change destroys us. Goodbye, cruel world.
Quoting ricderr:
Well by your science, Millions of people that live along a coastline should be in knee deep water by now.



really now....can you cite the source please
AlGore told him so. Clearly,the science has failed...(>ლ)
Quoting 25. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Storms that stop intensifying at 95kt are the worst.

EP, 21, 2014110318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU,




Looks like 115 mph since this late morning.
Wow its supposed to peak tomorrow, and these swells are already bigger then when Hurricane Gonzalo, was passing by, plus it looks ominous outside, and real windy, looks more like a Tropical storm passing by, then just a front, combined with the ULL, looks like a stormy night and through Wednesday probably Thursday, can't wait to see 10 to 15 foot breakers here in the north coast tomorrow, probably the biggest waves Ive seen my entire life, really excited! :)



Hurricane VANCE winds 110 mph at 4:58 PM EST on November 03, 2014
Why 110 mph NHC? Why?? #Vance

2014NOV03 213000 5.5 957.8 102.0 5.5 5.0 4.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -67.16 -76.57 UNIFRM N/A 46.8 16.63 110.64 SPRL GOES15 34.0


20141103 | 1800 | E-PAC | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 16.0 | 110.8 | 960 | 102 | 21E | VANCE | 1 | TS

Link

Link

Maybe 115 mph in post analysis.
ok little guy you have spun enough time to spin down

Quoting 81. pablosyn:

Why 110 mph NHC? Why?? #Vance

2014NOV03 213000 5.5 957.8 102.0 5.5 5.0 4.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -67.16 -76.57 UNIFRM N/A 46.8 16.63 110.64 SPRL GOES15 34.0


20141103 | 1800 | E-PAC | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 16.0 | 110.8 | 960 | 102 | 21E | VANCE | 1 | TS

Link

Link

Maybe 115 mph in post analysis.

95kt seems like a good call to me. I'd like to eye to warm some before going 100kt. Unfortunately, shear is increasing, so Vance is unlikely to become the 10th major hurricane in the Northeast Pacific. So close though.
Front's coming through Florida on Friday. That's 7 days after the last front. Maybe we can keep this Friday front pattern going? That sets us up for a nice sunny and cool weekend.

This past Saturday and Sunday was the best weather we've had since last March.

hey guys just popping in and going back out again

but before I do so

we may see a tropical system in the W Caribbean sometime within the next 1 1/2 to 2 weeks or so

GFS Parallel GFS CMC/GEM Euro plus their ensembles are hinting development there within that timeframe some are hinting more than some obviously because some don't go out as far as some but all do have an area of low pressure in the W Carib at the same time

we should still keep an eye out because W Carib late season storms are known to be problematic
eg Sandy, Ida, Paloma, Gamma, Michelle
just to name a few

anyway awaiting 18Z to see what it shows
sfloridacat 5 for next Friday front does it look like upper 60 for Orlando and upper 40
Quoting 35. JeffMasters:



Actually, I've been working so much overtime of late that I am cutting back my hours in November, and won't be discussing every worthy weather event that happens--particulary if it falls on a weekend, like this winter storm did. We are hiring a new blogger to help me out in January.

Dr. M.
yeah we are almost finish building the robot in the back room just teaching it how to type now should be ready in January like you say

just joking
Forecast for Friday for Shemya Island, Alaska. Remnants on Nuri.The estimated low barometric pressure is 28.02 in. WOW... I've been through several strong storms there, so 50-70mph is not unusual, but 28.02! I would guess 50-70 mph is a conservative forecast with that low a barometer.

Friday 11/07 100%
Windy with periods of rain. High 43F. Winds SSW at 50 to 70 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a half an inch.


Friday Night 11/07 80%
Windy with occasional light rain. Low 39F. Winds W at 50 to 70 mph. Chance of rain 80%.


For those who don't know, Shemya is one island east of Attu, the last (western most) island in Alaska in the Aleutian chain. The Air Force had a base there until 1995 and it's been in care-taker status as an emergency runway (among other things) since.

Quoting 87. eddye:

sfloridacat 5 for next Friday front does it look like upper 60 for Orlando and upper 40

fri night sat morning lows

looks like 50 and 60s for most of fla with 40 confined in the north area of the state


Crazy looking pattern..

Quoting eddye:
sfloridacat 5 for next Friday front does it look like upper 60 for Orlando and upper 40


That's looks pretty close. Probably upper 60s - low 70s.
But this is subject to change.

Local met thinks the front could stall out over S.Florida and possibly bring some rain for the weekend (southern half of the state). But he's still forecasting for the front to clear the state and dry us out.
18Z GFS
Saturday morning (Nov.8th), not as cold as the last front.
southflorida cat 5 look at the euro
Quoting turnto:
Forecast for Friday for Shemya Island, Alaska. Remnants on Nuri.The estimated low barometric pressure is 28.02 in. WOW... I've been through several strong storms there, so 50-70mph is not unusual, but 28.02! I would guess 50-70 mph is a conservative forecast with that low a barometer.

Friday 11/07 100%
Windy with periods of rain. High 43F. Winds SSW at 50 to 70 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a half an inch.


Friday Night 11/07 80%
Windy with occasional light rain. Low 39F. Winds W at 50 to 70 mph. Chance of rain 80%.


For those who don't know, Shemya is one island east of Attu, the last (western most) island in Alaska in the Aleutian chain. The Air Force had a base there until 1995 and it's been in care-taker status as an emergency runway (among other things) since.



See my post #66?
80 mph gusts are forecast for Baker Island. I'm not sure how many people live out there, but they are in for a real blow.
Friday
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Saturday
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Quoting eddye:
southflorida cat 5 look at the euro


Euro shows a low forming on the front that crosses South Florida this weekend.
That might be what our local met was hinting about.
euro also colder
3 month forecast..



Latest GFS at 924 mb..

Quoting 85. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys just popping in and going back out again

but before I do so

we may see a tropical system in the W Caribbean sometime within the next 1 1/2 to 2 weeks or so

GFS Parallel GFS CMC/GEM Euro plus their ensembles are hinting development there within that timeframe some are hinting more than some obviously because some don't go out as far as some but all do have an area of low pressure in the W Carib at the same time

we should still keep an eye out because W Carib late season storms are known to be problematic
eg Sandy, Ida, Paloma, Gamma, Michelle
just to name a few

anyway awaiting 18Z to see what it shows


Please Keep Us UPDATED ... thx...let us know when 18Z comes out


NOOOOOOOO!!!
It might not be a dry weekend across S. Florida.
18z GFS is picking up on the same thing the Euro is showing for this weekend.
It looks like the front is going to drag/slow across S. Florida and possibly a low forming along the front and moving over S. Florida.

Here's the 18Z GFS snow forecast through Sunday. Looks like a major snowstorm up in Canada.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Euro shows a low forming on the front that crosses South Florida this weekend.
That might be what our local met was hinting about.
What happens with the Saturday front is going to be greatly influenced by an ULL from the Four Corners that will be ejecting into the broader westerlies. The further east and south it gets by Saturday will determine if the front clears Florida, similar to the one we just had, or if the front slows down or even stalls. If the front does stall, it looks like the ULL will try to ride the front toward Florida instead of another round of winter weather for the East Coast and mountains. If the front keeps moving, the ULL is more likely to keep moving east and cause trouble for the East Coast again. The GFS has been all over the place, speeding everything up for one run and slowing it all down on the second. The CMC is even more confused, showing the front pushing offshore with a 1003 low off the Carolinas and the front washing out before it ever gets to sought Florida. Let's just say the models really don't have a handle on this one yet except for agreeing this bout of cold air will not be as cold or get as afar south as this weekend's front.
Very sad to hear about Jim Leonard's death. He was a great storm chaser, I admired his work very much. R.I.P.
I didn't want to leave out the Northern Plains and Great Lakes.
This will be the first snow of the season for some areas.
No seeing that Jim Leonard has passed away. My condolences to his family. He was one of the best and I enjoyed his work. His videos were always of a high quality and exciting, yet not foolish and overly risky. May he R.I.P.
Quoting Articuno:
Very sad to hear about Jim Leonard's death. He was a great storm chaser, I admired his work very much. R.I.P.
Quoting LemieT:
No seeing that Jim Leonard has passed away. My condolences to his family. He was one of the best and I enjoyed his work. His videos were always of a high quality and exciting, yet not foolish and overly risky. May he R.I.P.
RIP Jim Leonard, you shall be missed. :(
snow Northern Plains maybe next week
Quoting 42. sar2401:

I was kind of hoping you'd get off this naming of winter storms thing but I guess not. On the list you go.
I just wanted to name my own winter storms just for fun and to not anybody that does would agree.
Quoting nygiants:

Please Keep Us UPDATED ... thx...let us know when 18Z comes out

Here's an update. The 18z isn't quite finished yet but let's try a learning experience. Here's the 12z at 300 hours -



Now here's the 18z at 300 hours -



On the 12z, there's a 1005 mb low over west Tennessee. On the 18z there's...nothing. On the 12z, it shows what in the Caribbean? Right, nothing. On the 18z, it shows a 1009 mb low off Nicaragua that has magically appeared out of nowhere. The 1021 high over Texas on the 12z has now turned into a 1027 mb ridge that covers most of the southeast.

My point is that it does no good to look at a single model run. At a minimum, look at the previous model run and compare it to the current run. If they match up with some logical progression of the weather, it may be on to something. At 12 days out, it's still pretty doubtful that it will happen like its shown. With the comparison of these two models runs, it's clear the GFS at 300 hours is doing the model equivalent of making things up. Lows don't suddenly appear and disappear by magic. Highs don't turn into a broad ridge in six hours.

I don't know if you are actually trying to learn anything about the weather and models or not. I'm sure WKC will come up with some interpretation that shows a low really is forming the Caribbean two weeks from now that may or may not ever become a tropical anything. Up to you what you want to believe but you've seen how reliable the GFS is with just this one comparison.
the V storm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 16:41:30 N Lon : 110:43:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 961.6mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Quoting nygiants:

Please Keep Us UPDATED ... thx...let us know when 18Z comes out

Yes, WKC, please keep us UPDATED!
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:

It might not be a dry weekend across S. Florida.
18z GFS is picking up on the same thing the Euro is showing for this weekend.
It looks like the front is going to drag/slow across S. Florida and possibly a low forming along the front and moving over S. Florida.




From the Miami NWS...

VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR FRIDAY A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE ARE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF ON REGARD TO HOW LONG THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE PRESENT TIME, THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE GETTING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE GFS
IS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND YESTERDAY`S GFS SOLUTION,
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS ALL WEEKEND IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS IS DUE TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS
OVER THE EASTERN US.
@vongfong2014 Don't let them get you down. Scratch that itch.
Nuri: quite a demonstration of resilience and stability:



We now have 91B:



Models have backed off a lot on intensity, but in terms of tracks they're all over the place at the moment. UKMET has it hitting Myanmar, CMC into Sri Lanka & Southern India, GFS into a similar place to Phailain and the ECMWF seems to be more central india. Whilst it doesn't look like it'll amount to much wind=wise, it could potentially cause a lot of flooding whereever it goes. Hopefully the models will get a better hold on this in the next day or two.
wow i leave and come back and see some people being really immature god!! guy grow up and stop acting like idiots

anyway 18Z GFS shows future AOI much weaker.
brings it up to a low then weakens back to trof end of run in the GOM as a sfc trof
and it has moved up the time line

anyway we do have a long time to watch the models and because its more than 5-7 days away we need to keep an eye on the models for a trend to develop down to the 7 day mark and continuing through the time frame then we will be able to look at the real possibility of actual development
Quoting 113. sar2401:


Here's an update. The 18z isn't quite finished yet but let's try a learning experience. Here's the 12z at 300 hours -



Now here's the 18z at 300 hours -



On the 12z, there's a 1005 mb low over west Tennessee. On the 18z there's...nothing. On the 12z, it shows what in the Caribbean? Right, nothing. On the 18z, it shows a 1009 mb low off Nicaragua that has magically appeared out of nowhere. The 1021 high over Texas on the 12z has now turned into a 1027 mb ridge that covers most of the southeast.

My point is that it does no good to look at a single model run. At a minimum, look at the previous model run and compare it to the current run. If they match up with some logical progression of the weather, it may be on to something. At 12 days out, it's still pretty doubtful that it will happen like its shown. With the comparison of these two models runs, it's clear the GFS at 300 hours is doing the model equivalent of making things up. Lows don't suddenly appear and disappear by magic. Highs don't turn into a broad ridge in six hours.

I don't know if you are actually trying to learn anything about the weather and models or not. I'm sure WKC will come up with some interpretation that shows a low really is forming the Caribbean two weeks from now that may or may not ever become a tropical anything. Up to you what you want to believe but you've seen how reliable the GFS is with just this one comparison.

I wanted to know what the 18Z said out of curiosity and bordem...i already know about the models not being right alot, i ve been in 2 Hurricanes in the past 3 years and many snow storms(they're different) so I already know the flip flopping of the models..
I wonder if Levi wants to go to Adak and experience the record low Alaska pressure, if it materializes. Also wonder if the extremely strong storm will trigger a big trough and storm in the east like the cold wave of November 1950.
34/64 today. It warmed before dawn so I did not see any frost, though there may have been frost in the middle of the night. Crisp cool and 'severe clear' today.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow i leave and come back and see some people being really immature god!! guy grow up and stop acting like idiots

Do you object to someone else posting models? Do you object to someone with a few decades of experience using the model comparison as a way to teach another member about how to look at models? Would you normally flag someone who called you an idiot? I'm not that immature, but I do object to being called an idiot.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow i leave and come back and see some people being really immature god!! guy grow up and stop acting like idiots

anyway 18Z GFS shows future AOI much weaker.
brings it up to a low then weakens back to trof end of run in the GOM as a sfc trof
and it has moved up the time line

anyway we do have a long time to watch the models and because its more than 5-7 days away we need to keep an eye on the models for a trend to develop down to the 7 day mark and continuing through the time frame then we will be able to look at the real possibility of actual development

OB-JECTION!!!!!!!!!
Quoting nygiants:

I wanted to know what the 18Z said out of curiosity and bordem...i already know about the models not being right alot, i ve been in 2 Hurricanes in the past 3 years and many snow storms(they're different) so I already know the flip flopping of the models..
That's fine. I hope I helped satisfy your curiosity and boredom. Sometimes, models really are right. Hopefully, if you get used to doing model run comparisons, you might be able to tell when a model really is sniffing something out. If you already do such things then I just satisfied my boredom by doing some pictures. :-)
Quoting 46. HaoleboySurfEC:
One of the biggest Oahu North Shore swells since 1969 possibly? Energy is there, depends on track. Early in season. Wow.
With the current level of skills in big wave surfing, and the videography experience and equipment to record it, I will be watching with great interest. Things have changed a lot in the sport since 1969.

Any danger to coastside development and housing?
Snow surprises Southeastern USA
BBC weather video, 3 November 2014 Last updated at 17:08 Help
A powerful storm brought unprecedented early-season snow to parts of South Carolina over the weekend. Darren Bett has more.


--------------------------

And a view to Europe:

"Qendresa", huh? (Name comes from Albania and means "the resilient (female)".








Rainfall should strengthen the more the system goes east.

Hope the best (for northern Italy the next days) and good night!!
Quoting 62901IL:

OB-JECTION!!!!!!!!!
Don't forget to Vote tomorrow! WU is lenient on election result nights. Looks to be an interesting evening!

Storm Chaser Legend Jim Leonard died early this morning around 7:30 am in West Palm Beach. Jim had been fighting cancer since the early part of the year. He was 64. I've known Jim for the past 29-years and chased several Hurricanes with him including Hugo in SC in 1989, Opal in Fort Walton Bch. Fl. in 1995 and Frances in Palm Beach in 2004. I also chased with him throughout Tornado Alley from Texas to North Dakota several times from 1987 through 2006. David Hoadley was the first guy to chase Tornado's as far back as the 1960's and then Jim came along and started chasing Hurricanes and Tornado's around 1971. He filmed one of his first Tornado's on the outer fringes of Hurricane Agnas in SW Florida in June of 1972. Jim Leonard has been in more Hurricanes and Tropical storms on the ground then any other person in History. He also helped to popularize the art and hobby of storm chasing more then anybody else during the 1980's and 90's. Living in Miami just minutes from Jim I have spent many fun hours with him watching storm chase videos over the years since i first met him back in 1985. Jim Leonard will be missed by the hundreds of chasers that knew him in this country and throughout the world. Jim Leonard 1950 to 2014 R.I.P.
This shows an area of sub 920 mb pressure in the forecast low.

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:

Funny. :D
Quoting HurriHistory:

Storm Chaser Legend Jim Leonard died early this morning around 7:30 am in West Palm Beach. Jim had been fighting cancer since the early part of the year. He was 64. I've known Jim for the past 29-years and chased several Hurricanes with him including Hugo in SC in 1989, Opal in Fort Walton Bch. Fl. in 1995 and Frances in Palm Beach in 2004. I also chased with him throughout Tornado Alley from Texas to North Dakota several times from 1987 through 2006. David Hoadley was the first guy to chase Tornado's as far back as the 1960's and then Jim came along and started chasing Hurricanes and Tornado's around 1971. He filmed one of his first Tornado's on the outer fringes of Hurricane Agnas in SW Florida in June of 1972. Jim Leonard has been in more Hurricanes and Tropical storms on the ground then any other person in History. He also helped to popularize the art and hobby of storm chasing more then anybody else during the 1980's and 90's. Living in Miami just minutes from Jim I have spent many fun hours with him watching storm chase videos over the years since i first met him back in 1985. Jim Leonard will be missed by the hundreds of chasers that knew him in this country and throughout the world. Jim Leonard 1950 to 2014 R.I.P.

RIP Jim Leonard. In Pace Resquiat.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't forget to Vote tomorrow! WU is lenient on election result nights. Looks to be an interesting evening!

Bill Killyquist will win. Goodnight everyone. -__-
Looks like not the best track for Hawaii swell. There will be a swell and it will be a solid November swell, but most likely nothing uncommon.

1969 Noll charged Makaha and many have called it the biggest wave ever ridden. There are no pictures, just a few eyewitnesses. Today there would be 50 cell phone videos on youtube within an hour.

Quoting 130. Xulonn:

With the current level of skills in big wave surfing, and the videography experience and equipment to record it, I will be watching with great interest. Things have changed a lot in the sport since 1969.

Any danger to coastside development and housing?
Good Evening. Not much to add to the mixed bag conversations today except for two comments. Expecting a pretty cold winter for the SE based on what I have seen in these parts the last few days; a friend in North Carolina had some outdoor rowing events for her kids cancelled on Saturday because of the weather and high winds and the am temps here in Tallahassee were at 30; haven't seen it that low in Tally in early November in a few years years.........So are we headed for an El Nino Winter for the SE?

On the global warming front, my oldest Daughter bought her first car over the weekend in Atlanta; a 2012 Prius. A good choice for a conscientious 23 year old. Proud of her for that one as I was honestly expecting a Dodge Charger or something like that...............All those fishing trips with her over the years and getting her close to nature and the environment is paying off.........................................
A 19th century shipwreck was unearthed this weekend at the Jersey Shore by crews building a steel wall (don't ask) in two towns hard hit by Sandy.
Quoting 85. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys just popping in and going back out again

but before I do so

we may see a tropical system in the W Caribbean sometime within the next 1 1/2 to 2 weeks or so

GFS Parallel GFS CMC/GEM Euro plus their ensembles are hinting development there within that timeframe some are hinting more than some obviously because some don't go out as far as some but all do have an area of low pressure in the W Carib at the same time

we should still keep an eye out because W Carib late season storms are known to be problematic
eg Sandy, Ida, Paloma, Gamma, Michelle
just to name a few

anyway awaiting 18Z to see what it shows

Have a drink my friend, remember today is my 50 birthday, have cold one , sit back and relax, I think the SW Caribbean might pull off a late surprise on the other hand, the 2014 HS might be over, overall this year we had quality over quantity compared to last year!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Quoting 85. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys just popping in and going back out again

but before I do so

we may see a tropical system in the W Caribbean sometime within the next 1 1/2 to 2 weeks or so

GFS Parallel GFS CMC/GEM Euro plus their ensembles are hinting development there within that timeframe some are hinting more than some obviously because some don't go out as far as some but all do have an area of low pressure in the W Carib at the same time

we should still keep an eye out because W Carib late season storms are known to be problematic
eg Sandy, Ida, Paloma, Gamma, Michelle
just to name a few

anyway awaiting 18Z to see what it shows

Have a drink my friend, remember today is my 50 birthday, have cold one , sit back and relax, I think the SW Caribbean might pull off a late surprise on the other hand, the 2014 HS might be over, overall this year we had quality over quantity compared to last year!


oh darn I forgot mate let me run down to Pop'A'Top and grab a case or two which one you said you wanted?
BTW Happy 50th
hey Stormpetrol them robbery kicking up again 5 today
Quoting 144. wunderkidcayman:



oh darn I forgot mate let me run down to Pop'A'Top and grab a case or two which one you said you wanted?
BTW Happy 50th


Tks, just another day to me, but I know a few of my school mates have been gone a long time, so I consider it a milestone despite taking it like another day! you know what they say about B/days , get enough of them they'll kill ya! Makes one realize life is sweet and unpredictable!
Happy half-a-century birthday Hank! :)
Quoting 146. wunderkidcayman:

hey Stormpetrol them robbery kicking up again 5 today

What again! Every police here couldn" t make one, They need call in about 20 guys from the US Task force and they could clear this you know what up in 6 weeks!
Quoting 148. GeoffreyWPB:

Happy half-a-century birthday Hank! :)

Thanks friend! :)
Quoting stormpetrol:

What again! Every police here couldn" t make one, They need call in about 20 guys from the US Task force and they could clear this you know what up in 6 weeks!


yep

or if I was back in I could have solved some of this

Cayman needs TFs like the US and UK and people and business need to be armed IMHO
Quoting 151. wunderkidcayman:



yep

or if I was back in I could have solved some of this

Cayman needs TFs like the US and UK and people and business need to be armed IMHO


Agreed 100%!
Wishing you a happy 50th BD stormpetrol.....
Quoting 150. stormpetrol:


Thanks friend! :)


Happy Birthday, Storm. If it makes you feel better, I was in my 2nd year of college when you were born. Don't forget to blow out all the candles.
So, anyone seen this?
Not very often the source of rain in Puerto Rico comes from a mid-latitude systems.
Quoting 142. stormpetrol:

Quoting 85. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys just popping in and going back out again

but before I do so

we may see a tropical system in the W Caribbean sometime within the next 1 1/2 to 2 weeks or so

GFS Parallel GFS CMC/GEM Euro plus their ensembles are hinting development there within that timeframe some are hinting more than some obviously because some don't go out as far as some but all do have an area of low pressure in the W Carib at the same time

we should still keep an eye out because W Carib late season storms are known to be problematic
eg Sandy, Ida, Paloma, Gamma, Michelle
just to name a few

anyway awaiting 18Z to see what it shows

Have a drink my friend, remember today is my 50 birthday, have cold one , sit back and relax, I think the SW Caribbean might pull off a late surprise on the other hand, the 2014 HS might be over, overall this year we had quality over quantity compared to last year!
Happy 50th! Stormpetrol. You have reached a milestone. Best wishes to you friend. Enjoy the birthday. Cheers! ~~~^_^~~~ xD
Quoting 158. Jedkins01:

Not very often the source of rain in Puerto Rico comes from a mid-latitude systems.
Hey did Tallahassee break a record low for Sunday morning? KDAB hit a low of 41 degrees which broke the old record by 4 degrees.
Quoting 134. HurriHistory:


Storm Chaser Legend Jim Leonard died early this morning around 7:30 am in West Palm Beach. Jim had been fighting cancer since the early part of the year. He was 64. I've known Jim for the past 29-years and chased several Hurricanes with him including Hugo in SC in 1989, Opal in Fort Walton Bch. Fl. in 1995 and Frances in Palm Beach in 2004. I also chased with him throughout Tornado Alley from Texas to North Dakota several times from 1987 through 2006. David Hoadley was the first guy to chase Tornado's as far back as the 1960's and then Jim came along and started chasing Hurricanes and Tornado's around 1971. He filmed one of his first Tornado's on the outer fringes of Hurricane Agnas in SW Florida in June of 1972. Jim Leonard has been in more Hurricanes and Tropical storms on the ground then any other person in History. He also helped to popularize the art and hobby of storm chasing more then anybody else during the 1980's and 90's. Living in Miami just minutes from Jim I have spent many fun hours with him watching storm chase videos over the years since i first met him back in 1985. Jim Leonard will be missed by the hundreds of chasers that knew him in this country and throughout the world. Jim Leonard 1950 to 2014 R.I.P.

Thank-you for that obit. I looked for one online and couldn't find anything.
You may want to add to his Wikipedia page.
Link Wiki Jim Leonard
Thanks for the B/Day wishes ! Everyone have a goodnight ! Got to check out , will check in tomorrow to see what's happening , Cheers!
Quoting 157. opal92nwf:

So, anyone seen this?



Why would anyone listen to John Coleman over actual active researching scientists? We have the ability to look up and see what has been researched thanks to the internet and/or libraries, have organizations like the IPCC synthesizing the entirety of relevant published science, and yet society and the media loves to fall back and get their information from non scientists, non experts, and give people like Coleman air time to talk as if he is some sort of expert or authority. It's really insane.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Thanks for the B/Day wishes ! Everyone have a goodnight ! Got to check out , will check in tomorrow to see what's happening , Cheers!
Happy Birthday, SP, if I'm not too late. I remember turning 50 but it's all pretty hazy now. :-)
Quoting 152. stormpetrol:



Agreed 100%!

Hey, Happy 50th !
well done.
In 16 years you'll be as old as me....... the best is yet to come !!

:):))
168. txjac
Quoting 167. pottery:


Hey, Happy 50th !
well done.
In 16 years you'll be as old as me.......

:):))


@ stormpetrol ..happy, happy birthday ...decided I should say it to you instead of just plussing everyone else that has said it to you. Best wishes my blog friend
Quoting 157. opal92nwf:

So, anyone seen this?



Sorry, if I want to watch idiots ramble on about things they know nothing about I turn to Fox News.

When I want to go to sleep, I watch CNN.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
there is a huge difference from being an idiot and acting like one

I did not say any such thing as "You are an idiot"

I stated that "YOU ARE ACTING LIKE IDIOTS"

anyway not surprising people who ACT in that way will obviously misread or misunderstood what is being stated

anyway enough of this foolishness no need to drag it out
Oh, I didn't misread or misunderstand anything. At least I now know that, if you describe what you think a model shows, I can say you're acting like an idiot and I won't get flagged...right?
Just checking in. Happy BD Storm.

Back in the land of the midnight sun - drove up with all my worldly possession in a uhaul this time around. Experienced a lot of cold weather issues that just don't apply in Miami. The padlock freezing shut, ice buildup on the headlights that basically dimmed them to being worthless at night. The -20F windshield fluid FROZE to the windshield and the windows. Water bottles that I put in the back of the uhaul froze solid. Overall though it was a great drive, made good time, and arrived safe and sound.
Quoting 164. Barefootontherocks:


LOL.
I posted that a few days ago barefoot but it's still funny!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


"All I can say is that when I was a kid rainbows didn't cut people in half!"

lolz
Quoting 164. Barefootontherocks:


we might have to consult Kori on this matter.
What about this scenario setting up in Texas..?? we hear about Florida all the time..them weather Guys are talking the Perfect setup?? mid and south Texas Getting up to 9 inches?? Any of you guys have any predictions for us "Common Folks". Do I need to rent a Boat??
Quoting 157. opal92nwf:

So, anyone seen this?



He has a degree in Journalism... clearly a climate expert I'd trust.
Quoting 170. sar2401:

Oh, I didn't misread or misunderstand anything. At least I now know that, if you describe what you think a model shows, I can say you're acting like an idiot and I won't get flagged...right?


xD
Got the Moisture Coming in from the Gulf At low Levels, got the Left overs from the Mexican Hurricane coming in from the west at mid=level Cold front coming from the north
Quoting Naga5000:


Why would anyone listen to John Coleman over actual active researching scientists? We have the ability to look up and see what has been researched thanks to the internet and/or libraries, have organizations like the IPCC synthesizing the entirety of relevant published science, and yet society and the media loves to fall back and get their information from non scientists, non experts, and give people like Coleman air time to talk as if he is some sort of expert or authority. It's really insane.

Coleman is really a sad case. He was one of the early TV weathermen who did try to bring weather down to the layman's level. Some people thought he was too clownish in his presentation even back in the early days, but he was successful. His idea for a 24 hour a day weather channel was brilliant, but very few media types gave it any chance for success. As much as I dislike a lot of what it has become, TWC still stands as show unique in having a science as its main theme. Coleman was never a meteorologist, but he did have a talent for weather. His talent is not dissimilar to some of bloggers here who, even though they don't have a degree, have the same level of weather forecasting knowledge as some degreed mets. The key, however, is weather forecasting, not climate science. That's a field as different from basic meteorology as a board certificated neurosurgeon is compared to a family practice doctor. In addition, Coleman is 80 years old and, frankly, it shows. I'm certainly not going to give out a 10 cent diagnosis, but he appears to be quite confused in every video he's been in that I've seen. He has the perfect sounding background to be used in his declining years by those who are doing so. It's sad and it's reprehensible.
Quoting 176. Fmatticola:

What about this scenario setting up in Texas..?? we hear about Florida all the time..them weather Guys are talking the Perfect setup?? mid and south Texas Getting up to 9 inches?? Any of you guys have any predictions for us "Common Folks". Do I need to rent a Boat??


Quoting 134. HurriHistory:


Storm Chaser Legend Jim Leonard died early this morning around 7:30 am in West Palm Beach. Jim had been fighting cancer since the early part of the year. He was 64. I've known Jim for the past 29-years and chased several Hurricanes with him including Hugo in SC in 1989, Opal in Fort Walton Bch. Fl. in 1995 and Frances in Palm Beach in 2004. I also chased with him throughout Tornado Alley from Texas to North Dakota several times from 1987 through 2006. David Hoadley was the first guy to chase Tornado's as far back as the 1960's and then Jim came along and started chasing Hurricanes and Tornado's around 1971. He filmed one of his first Tornado's on the outer fringes of Hurricane Agnas in SW Florida in June of 1972. Jim Leonard has been in more Hurricanes and Tropical storms on the ground then any other person in History. He also helped to popularize the art and hobby of storm chasing more then anybody else during the 1980's and 90's. Living in Miami just minutes from Jim I have spent many fun hours with him watching storm chase videos over the years since i first met him back in 1985. Jim Leonard will be missed by the hundreds of chasers that knew him in this country and throughout the world. Jim Leonard 1950 to 2014 R.I.P.


I knew he was battling cancer, but I guess I expected him to live a little bit longer. :\

Well... that makes THREE people on my Facebook that are now deceased.
Quoting Dakster:
Just checking in. Happy BD Storm.

Back in the land of the midnight sun - drove up with all my worldly possession in a uhaul this time around. Experienced a lot of cold weather issues that just don't apply in Miami. The padlock freezing shut, ice buildup on the headlights that basically dimmed them to being worthless at night. The -20F windshield fluid FROZE to the windshield and the windows. Water bottles that I put in the back of the uhaul froze solid. Overall though it was a great drive, made good time, and arrived safe and sound.
Dang, Dak, sounds like a not very fun drive. You're aware of the upcoming storm there, right? Sounds ike you need to have anything loose tied down. Glad to hear you made it OK and I hope the upcoming storm doesn't give you too many problems.
This is 95E



Vance

Quoting Fmatticola:
What about this scenario setting up in Texas..?? we hear about Florida all the time..them weather Guys are talking the Perfect setup?? mid and south Texas Getting up to 9 inches?? Any of you guys have any predictions for us "Common Folks". Do I need to rent a Boat??
It could turn out to be the perfect storm for Texas, especially if it all gets mixed up with the developing low further west. I don't think you'll need a boat but now would be a good time to clean out the gutters. :-)
Quoting 171. Dakster:

Just checking in. Happy BD Storm.

Back in the land of the midnight sun - drove up with all my worldly possession in a uhaul this time around. Experienced a lot of cold weather issues that just don't apply in Miami. The padlock freezing shut, ice buildup on the headlights that basically dimmed them to being worthless at night. The -20F windshield fluid FROZE to the windshield and the windows. Water bottles that I put in the back of the uhaul froze solid. Overall though it was a great drive, made good time, and arrived safe and sound.

Was wondering where you were. Good to hear the journey is complete. Batten down your hatches..
Quoting 184. Grothar:

This is 95E



Vance




LBAR takes it into Louisiana.
Quoting Grothar:
This is 95E



Vance

Cool! The LBAR takes it right over my house in 72 hours. Let's see, what do the locals say?

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Rats!
Quoting 161. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey did Tallahassee break a record low for Sunday morning? KDAB hit a low of 41 degrees which broke the old record by 4 degrees.


The official low here today was 30, and it sure was cold, believe it or not though, its not a record. The record is 29, close but just shy of the record.

There sure were other record lows in Florida broken. It feels odd to have it get as cold as it did this weekend so early. It felt nice and refreshing though
Quoting 190. Jedkins01:



The official low here today was 30, and it sure was cold, believe it or not though, its not a record. The record is 29, close but just shy of the record.

There sure were other record lows in Florida broken. It feels odd to have it get as cold as it did this weekend so early. It felt nice and refreshing though


Technicality is a b****, lol.
Quoting 173. DonnieBwkGA:

I posted that a few days ago barefoot but it's still funny!
Oh. I don't read here every day - the comments anyway. Guy at the SPC twitted it tonight. Hilarious. Maybe I should read the Onion more often.
Quoting 171. Dakster:

Just checking in. Happy BD Storm.

Back in the land of the midnight sun - drove up with all my worldly possession in a uhaul this time around. Experienced a lot of cold weather issues that just don't apply in Miami. The padlock freezing shut, ice buildup on the headlights that basically dimmed them to being worthless at night. The -20F windshield fluid FROZE to the windshield and the windows. Water bottles that I put in the back of the uhaul froze solid. Overall though it was a great drive, made good time, and arrived safe and sound.
One time I drove up in mid-November and it was 30 below in Beaver Creek. Glad you got home okay.
boy the deadliest catch fleet is going too have one heck of a storm on there hands on the fishing grounds this may be the strongest storm the fleet has ever had i no the fleet has had some strong storms be for but if model runs are right this could be the strongest storm ever for the fleet with Nuri
Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:



we might have to consult Kori on this matter.

He'll just wishcast it to Louisiana.
Quoting 186. sar2401:

It could turn out to be the perfect storm for Texas, especially if it all gets mixed up with the developing low further west. I don't think you'll need a boat but now would be a good time to clean out the gutters. :-)


Thanks guys....Don't trust theses local guys..Seen this setup before 12 inches + guess i drive the old f-250 tomorrow.. south Texas needs this But Not at one time
Quoting Jedkins01:
Not very often the source of rain in Puerto Rico comes from a mid-latitude systems.
It goes baca to January,6,1992, 3 king Day, our main Christmas season celebration, we had a similar system, but of coursé this one, might acquired some tropical characteristics, if it stay stalled over very hot waters
W/ the last month having 2nd largest October Eurasian Snowpack on record, I hope you liked your Arctic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode served negative & filled to the brim with plentiful high latitude blocking...
199. 882MB
Quoting 154. Grothar:




Rains and wind have been relentlessly over here, I can say I have seen gust to probably 40 to 45mph, not even when Hurricane Gonzalo passed by, I saw this much bad weather, and the surf makes it look even more like a tropical system, only just one shower passed by, and literally I counted like 10 transformers blowing up, seeing that blue light, flicker on and off, rivers are rising as I see the gauges, wow! And we still have two or three more days of this bad weather.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
431 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY POWERFUL STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
STARTING LATE THIS FRIDAY. SUPER TYPHOON NURI (CURRENTLY LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO) IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ON THURSDAY AND SWITCH FROM TROPICAL TO
EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA EARLY ON FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND INTO THE BERING SEA...SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM A 500 MB JET STREAK (130 KT) AND A 200 MB JET STREAK (200 KT)
WILL PROMOTE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS FROM
THURSDAY 21Z TO FRIDAY 21Z...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FROM
AROUND 973 MB TO SOMEWHERE IN THE 925 TO 935 MB RANGE. THIS WOULD
BRING A LARGE SWATCH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS THE ECMWF
HAS A 918 MB SOLUTION AND ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO GET
TIGHTER IN LOW PLACEMENT AND DEPICT DEEPER SOLUTIONS. WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA...THE REMNANTS OF NURI WILL
BE TRAPPED IN THE BERING SEA THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO MUCH OF
THE BERING SEA AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. COASTAL
EROSION AND POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
THE DAYS TO COME. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE RISE THAT A VERY SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT BERING SEA BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK


ouch 918mb? boy the fleet is going too have one hack of a storm
Quoting 195. TropicalAnalystwx13:


He'll just wishcast it to Louisiana.


I already did.
Fair

39°F

4°C

Humidity76%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.37 in (1028.4 mb)
Dewpoint32°F (0°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 3 Nov 10:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

Surprisingly cold again tonight, big warmup tomorrow though, then more cold air Friday into this weekend behind the next front arriving Thursday. It shouldn't be as intense this time though, but still highs in the upper 60's and lows upper 30's to low 40's is nice and cool though.
Quoting 176. Fmatticola:

What about this scenario setting up in Texas..?? we hear about Florida all the time..them weather Guys are talking the Perfect setup?? mid and south Texas Getting up to 9 inches?? Any of you guys have any predictions for us "Common Folks". Do I need to rent a Boat??


It's very similar to the 1998 flood except the dew points aren't as high. They say the precipitable water is in the 99th percentile so that says a lot. Honestly events like this can end up as bust or become big floods. Take for instance last year Oct. 30, put under flash flood watch for widespread 1-3 inch rain with isolated 5 inches. I get near a foot of rain over night and under a flash flood emergency. Too bad it will take a widespread area of a foot of rain to fill up all these lakes and aquifer that hasn't recovered at all.
Quoting 180. sar2401:

Coleman is really a sad case. He was one of the early TV weathermen who did try to bring weather down to the layman's level. Some people thought he was too clownish in his presentation even back in the early days, but he was successful. His idea for a 24 hour a day weather channel was brilliant, but very few media types gave it any chance for success. As much as I dislike a lot of what it has become, TWC still stands as show unique in having a science as its main theme. Coleman was never a meteorologist, but he did have a talent for weather. His talent is not dissimilar to some of bloggers here who, even though they don't have a degree, have the same level of weather forecasting knowledge as some degreed mets. The key, however, is weather forecasting, not climate science. That's a field as different from basic meteorology as a board certificated neurosurgeon is compared to a family practice doctor. In addition, Coleman is 80 years old and, frankly, it shows. I'm certainly not going to give out a 10 cent diagnosis, but he appears to be quite confused in every video he's been in that I've seen. He has the perfect sounding background to be used in his declining years by those who are doing so. It's sad and it's reprehensible.

I think he knew exactly what to say, cut straight to the point with no-nonsense.
Am I the only one getting the impression Vance could make it to the coast as a weak tropical cyclone? Satellite and water vapor imagery suggests the shear has not increased as quickly as anticipated, and that the SHIPS diagnosis of 30 kt as of 0z is likely overzealous.

It'll probably be another 12 hours or so before the hurricane really begins to feel it.
Quoting 204. opal92nwf:


I think he knew exactly what to say, cut straight to the point with no-nonsense.


A response from Dana Nuccitelli, an actively publishing climate scientist. Link
Quoting 204. opal92nwf:


I think he knew exactly what to say, cut straight to the point with no-nonsense.


Who has the no-nonsense, numerous PHD climatologists with years of proven, trustworthy experience in research, or a man with a journalism degree that is good at starting and running a media company?

Seriously...
Quoting 206. Naga5000:


What's your theory 4000-2000 BC and the Roman empire when it was warmer and the sea levels higher than current.....
Quoting 187. PedleyCA:


Was wondering where you were. Good to hear the journey is complete. Batten down your hatches..


Yeah... I am just reading about that... Predicted effects for mainland Alaska?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I already did.
Since there's a chance it could get to Alabama if it gets to Louisiana first, i'll wishcast it with you. That LBAR is known for these kinds of accurate, long range forecasts.

Wait, slight fly in the ointment. Vance is almost exactly 1800 miles from my house. According the LBAR, it will be in my front yard in 72 hours. That means it has to average about 25 mph for the whole distance, and it's moving at 13 mph now. Do these storms usually speed up or slow down once they make landfall? Is there a way we could attach a couple of jet engines to Vance's butt to speed him up? :-)
Quoting Dakster:


Yeah... I am just reading about that... Predicted effects for mainland Alaska?


Outside of the Aleutians, not much. Filling in the Bering Sea. Another storm closer to you but nothing exceptional.

3 days after peak.

What's up with IFuSAYso faking quotes from other people?
Quoting 211. sar2401:

Since there's a chance it could get to Alabama if it gets to Louisiana first, i'll wishcast it with you. That LBAR is known for these kinds of accurate, long range forecasts.

Wait, slight fly in the ointment. Vance is almost exactly 1800 miles from my house. According the LBAR, it will be in my front yard in 72 hours. That means it has to average about 25 mph for the whole distance, and it's moving at 13 mph now. Do these storms usually speed up or slow down once they make landfall? Is there a way we could attach a couple of jet engines to Vance's butt to speed him up? :-)


LBAR is depicting the mid-level vortex, which WILL accelerate after landfall as it becomes embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies.
Quoting Dakster:


Yeah... I am just reading about that... Predicted effects for mainland Alaska?
So far, it looks like inland areas in central Alaska are going to escape the worst of this. The Aleutians and Homer north on the mainland will get the brunt. It's still a pretty dynamic situation though, with this deep low fighting a powerful Pacific ridge, and exact placement of the low, how much it deepens, and timing are still to be worked out. I'd plan for 60-70 mph winds and hope you only 30-40. There could also be a nasty mix of rain and snow by Saturday then turning to all snow by Sunday. This low could get trapped in the Bering Sea and just spin out there for two or three days. It might get weaker or it might deepen a little further. Figures you move up there just as Alaska gets their version of a cat 5 hurricane.

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
What's up with IFuSAYso faking quotes from other people?
I believe it's this screwed up site. He's not watching where he posts his reply. If you don't get it below the block quote, it shows up as if it came from the person he's quoting. He's probably just as baffled by this as you are. Just really poor programming.
Quoting 212. DonnieBwkGA:



Outside of the Aleutians, not much. Filling in the Bering Sea. Another storm closer to you but nothing exceptional.

3 days after peak.




Thanks!
I don't appreciate having my post's misquoted, but, since the Roman Warm period myth was brought up and attributed to me and not Steven Goddard, I'll just leave these here.

"Here, we present results for sea-level change in the central Mediterranean basin for the Roman Period using new archaeological evidence. These data provide a precise measure of local sea level of -1.35 -0.07 m at 2000 years ago. Part of this change is the result of ongoing glacio-hydro isostatic adjustment of the crust subsequent to the last deglaciation. When corrected for this, using geologically constrained model predictions, the change in eustatic sea level since the Roman Period is -0.13 -0.09 m. A comparison with tide-gauge records from nearby locations and with geologically constrained model predictions of the glacio-isostatic contributions establishes that the onset of modern sea-level rise occurred in recent time at 100 -53 years before present." Link

In other words, sea level wasn't really higher when all factors are accounted for. And the current rise in sea level is independent from the rise seen post deglaciation.

And

Marcott's 2013 reconstruction of temperature Link, much like other reconstructions, really puts into perspective the rapid onset of the current temperature increase and shows the "Roman Warm Period" really wasn't that warm globally.



Forcings drive climate, previous history has shown that solar variation, variation in orbit, greenhouse gases, aerosols, all contribute. The difference now? We have added more CO2, a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
Quoting KoritheMan:


LBAR is depicting the mid-level vortex, which WILL accelerate after landfall as it becomes embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies.
Alrighty then. You plan on tracking it from the Texas line over to my house. Drop your car here and then we'll chase Vance, who I'm pretty sure will still be a cat 1 all the way, across Georgia until it gets in the Atlantic somewhere near Donnie's house. We'll show up on his doorstep, mooch some free meals and a place to sleep from him, then head back west again. Should be fabulous. Practice your falsetto screaming voice for the video so we can goose things up a little. :-)
Quoting 216. sar2401:

So far, it looks like inland areas in central Alaska are going to escape the worst of this. The Aleutians and Homer north on the mainland will get the brunt. It's still a pretty dynamic situation though, with this deep low fighting an powerful Pacific ridge, and exact placement of the low, how much it deepens, and timing are still to be worked out. I'd plan for 60-70 mph winds and hope you only 30-40. There could also be a nasty mix of rain and snow by Saturday then turning to all snow by Sunday. This low could get rapped in the Bering Sea and just spin out there for two or three days. It might get weaker or it might deepen a little further. Figures you move up there just as Alaska gets their version of a cat 5 hurricane.




Yeah... really...
How's it like driving that far? Fla to Alaska. Ouch.
Quoting opal92nwf:

I think he knew exactly what to say, cut straight to the point with no-nonsense.
I wish I could agree but he sounded like an angry old man trying to remember a rehearsed speech. When he got interrupted, he had a hard time getting back to the script and sounded even more weird than usual. He's done this on several recent interviews I've seen. Look at some videos from 2009 and you'll see the difference.
Quoting 222. bappit:

How's it like driving that far? Fla to Alaska. Ouch.


I like driving, so it isn't that bad... It is a LONG drive though. And you go through so many different landscapes it is quite interesting.

Ohh and expensive... 600 gals. of fuel in the UHaul.
Looking pretty soggy for a lot of folks..
922 mb on the latest GFS..

Quoting 163. stormpetrol:

Thanks for the B/Day wishes ! Everyone have a goodnight ! Got to check out , will check in tomorrow to see what's happening , Cheers!
Happy B-Day S.P...I have one and a half years left before me 50th..I hope it does not go by too fast..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Looking pretty soggy for a lot of folks..


I don't understand what that satellite image is supposed to be showing. It can't be rain, since there's none within 500 miles of Alabama according to radar.

Quoting 220. sar2401:

Alrighty then. You plan on tracking it from the Texas line over to my house. Drop your car here and then we'll chase Vance, who I'm pretty sure will still be a cat 1 all the way, across Georgia until it gets in the Atlantic somewhere near Donnie's house. We'll show up on his doorstep, mooch some free meals and a place to sleep from him, then head back west again. Should be fabulous. Practice your falsetto screaming voice for the video so we can goose things up a little. :-)


Somehow I doubt you'd want to see my falsetto. :)
Quoting 227. hydrus:

Happy B-Day S.P...I have one and a half years left before me 50th..I hope it does not go by too fast..:)


Time flies once you're older than like 16.
Quoting 230. KoritheMan:



Time flies once you're older than like 16.


Also, no one make a comment about my avatar's here typically consisting of anime/manga or video games and my age. Cuz guess what? Not only do I not care, I also submit that you're never too old for anything. So there!

:D
Quoting 228. sar2401:



I don't understand what that satellite image is supposed to be showing. It can't be rain, since there's none within 500 miles of Alabama according to radar.


Cold cirrus way up high , and some of it is from Vance...Front is a slow moving system. I wonder how much we will get here in TN.

Quoting 230. KoritheMan:



Time flies once you're older than like 16.
I was 16 in 82...My 40,s have by far been the fastest....It absolutely goes by faster the older you get. Make the most of your years Kori. You are likely in your early 20,s , spit and you will be 30...:)
Even though the global models remain unenthusiastic, I would not rule out the possibility of tropical cyclone development with Invest 95E before the system encounters a much drier airmass on the subsident portion of the subtropical ridge in about 48 hours. The SHIPS model run of the shear is lower than yesterday, and the upper flow over the system is currently fairly divergent. I'd give the system a 50/50 chance of becoming a cyclone during the next two days given the much better-defined (now closed, albeit broad) circulation noted in a recent ASCAT pass. Notice also the large convective band to the west. Also, while central convection has recently weakened, we still have dmax coming up, and there is some suggestion that the central shower activity is trying to become more banded. The global models do not typically handle systems like this very well, the ones that are riding the tails of more powerful and fully developed systems (Vance), and also when the window of opportunity for significant intensification is short, so I would not weigh as much credibility on them as I would under ordinary circumstances.

235. vis0
Interesting extremes, ePac trying to form 2 or 3 TS (too close to create more than 2."5"...??) & ITCZ splitting part going near Brazil


for some of MY weird explanations read this () image.(bad enough i post vertical VIDs so placing text in linked pngs.

NHC TWO still at 20/20 for 95E. I wonder if it was released before the aforementioned ASCAT pass came out?
Quoting 233. hydrus:

I was 16 in 82...My 40,s have by far been the fastest....It absolutely goes by faster the older you get. Make the most of your years Kori. You are likely in your early 20,s , spit and you will be 30...:)


I'm 23.



This near-infrared, color view from Cassini shows the sun glinting off of Titan's north polar seas. The seas are made of hydrocarbon.. Very interesting stuff.. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. Arizona/Univ. Idaho



The view was acquired during Cassini's August 21, 2014, flyby of Titan, also referred to as "T104" by the Cassini team.
Quoting 237. KoritheMan:



I'm 23.
I partied quite a bit at that time of my life...Good memories..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Cold cirrus way up high , and some of it is from Vance...Front is a slow moving system. I wonder how much we will get here in TN.

Ah, I get it now. Still clear down here. I think Vance does get here in time to add a little extra moisture to the front that will be moving in Wednesday into Thursday. After that, any remnants of Vance should get shunted north of us, so just cool and dry here. Maybe you'll get a little more rain up you way. I want to see just how much Nuri is going to affect us. I guess it should be moving south into the US in about 10 days or so, assuming Nuri keeps moving. It might not and get hung up in the Bering Sea. No matter how the timing plays out, I don't see how we escape some pretty intense effects from Nuri, especially with the Nor'easter that should result. For not having an El Nino, we've sure had a lot of El Nino type typhoons. Almost all the digging troughs we've had in the last three months are from typhoon remnants. I don't remember the sensible weather down here being affected so many times by typhoon remnants in my years of watching these things.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Also, no one make a comment about my avatar's here typically consisting of anime/manga or video games and my age. Cuz guess what? Not only do I not care, I also submit that you're never too old for anything. So there!

:D
Actually, I was going to comment and then I forgot. At first, I thought someone else was trying to fake your name. What is that thing? It looks like a bird that came from a 3-D printer. :-)
Quoting 240. sar2401:

Ah, I get it now. Still clear down here. I think Vance does get here in time to add a little extra moisture to the front that will be moving in Wednesday into Thursday. After that, any remnants of Vance should get shunted north of us, so just cool and dry here. Maybe you'll get a little more rain up you way. I want to see just how much Nuri is going to affect us. I guess it should be moving south into the US in about 10 days or so, assuming Nuri keeps moving. It might not and get hung up in the Bering Sea. No matter how the timing plays out, I don't see how we escape some pretty intense effects from Nuri, especially with the Nor'easter that should result. For not having an El Nino, we've sure had a lot of El Nino type typhoons. Almost all the digging troughs we've had in the last three months are from typhoon remnants. I don't remember the sensible weather down here being affected so many times by typhoon remnants in my years of watching these things.
October has been very wet here, but we get it in 2 to 4 inch bursts, making things very sloppy. We just had snow here too, which is rare in October. My bet is snow and ice for the Mid South Sar..I truly hope its nothing like 1994.
Be back later.
Quoting hydrus:
I was 16 in 82...My 40,s have by far been the fastest....It absolutely goes by faster the older you get. Make the most of your years Kori. You are likely in your early 20,s , spit and you will be 30...:)

Wait until that Medicare card shows up in the mail. Time really starts to fly by then. Someone was asking me a question about California law the other day. We all carried this blue book called the Penal Code Of The State Of California, Peace Officers Abridged Edition. There's a new one every year so that date is part of the title. Mine is from 2004, the last year I was with the department. If I had to guess without thinking about it, I would have said something like five years. It seems like I just put all the Christmas stuff away and now it's a month later and I'm hauling it out again. I really hate how fast time seems to be moving since the end is also coming up sooner. :-(
Quoting hydrus:
October has been very wet here, but we get it in 2 to 4 inch bursts, making things very sloppy. We just had snow here too, which is rare in October. My bet is snow and ice for the Mid South Sar..I truly hope its nothing like 1994.
Yeah, and it's been dry as abone down here. If you think 1994 was bad, check out the winter of 1886-1887. We have never had as much snow as we had that winter. Montgomery had 11 inches of the 13 inch total from one storm on December 5, 1886. It's the only we had a low of zero in December and January and lows below 10 degrees during the other winter months. There was one stretch of nine days where the temperature never got above 32 and numerous 3-5 day occurrences of the same thing. Most people ran out of an entire normal winter supplies of firewood by the end December, and the railroads ran special 25 car trains that carried nothing but firewood, going at the then unheard of price of $10 a cord. That was the winter that led to a mass switch from wood for heat to coal, since supplies were reliable and didn't need any special handling before tossing it into a stove or furnace. 1994 was bad but I'll take it compared to 1887-87.
Quoting 239. hydrus:

I partied quite a bit at that time of my life...Good memories..:)


I'd be the first to crash a party. I have a VERY obscene and vulgar personality. :P
Quoting 241. sar2401:

Actually, I was going to comment and then I forgot. At first, I thought someone else was trying to fake your name. What is that thing? It looks like a bird that came from a 3-D printer. :-)


It's a Pokemon. Name's Porygon. At the time (there were other iterations of Porygon released in subsequent generations), it was the only digital Pokemon in the franchise. So the printer analogy wasn't far off; it's completely virtual. It was part of the batch of Generation 1 Pokemon. They started off with 151, now they're up to like... Generation 6 and #800? I dunno, something like that.

Funny story: each Pokemon appears at least once in the Pokemon TV series. Except Porygon. Actually he DID appear, but the one episode where he did so was only aired in Japan; it never came to America because a **** ton of epileptic kids had seizures from the episode he was featured in, which had a LOT of psychadelic effects. I've watched the scene on YouTube and I was fine. My brother avoids it because he has a history of seizures.
Quoting 198. Webberweather53:
W/ the last month having 2nd largest October Eurasian Snowpack on record, I hope you liked your Arctic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode served negative & filled to the brim with plentiful high latitude blocking...


Euro brings a 1038 Arctic High south and freezes most of the US at day 10. Only warm area left is FL. Euro also has a El-Nino type signature as well with a wet looking sub tropical jet coming across the GULF. I suspect lots of fun is on the way across the south with this set up.

Any forecaster that says November will be warm across the US is likely going to be in for a nice size helping of crow.
Very sad that the Wunderground is owned by the Weather Channel which is used by CNN and Fox News to spread misinformation about the dangers of climate change. The USA has wasted 30 years of avoiding any action to change its energy policies and is completely unprepared for the changes that are coming. This is going to be a very expensive mistake. http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/climate-threats. html

Quoting Dakster:


I like driving, so it isn't that bad... It is a LONG drive though. And you go through so many different landscapes it is quite interesting.

Ohh and expensive... 600 gals. of fuel in the UHaul.
Dakster,

Where have you ended up? I lived for about four years in Juneau. Had the time of my life. It was tons of fun. Though, I dare say I live in a desert now and have to admit to burning out on rain after those four years. :)
Good morning. The NE Caribbean islands are getting plenty of rain and more will come in the next couple of days.

A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect from 2 PM AST for all of PR.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES AND ALL OF THE OF U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL DEEPEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF
FORCING TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. IN ADDITION...RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS...AND
RUNOFF FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLOODING AS
RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.


Quoting thesailer99:
Very sad that the Wunderground is owned by the Weather Channel which is used by CNN and Fox News to spread misinformation about the dangers of climate change. The USA has wasted 30 years of avoiding any action to change its energy policies and is completely unprepared for the changes that are coming. This is going to be a very expensive mistake. http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/climate-threats. html
Hi thesailer99,

Welcome to the blog. Is Climate Outcome your effort? If so, then bravo, well done, sir! :)

I like what Bob Bingham has to say about life.
I was born 5 miles north of there. Had never heard of this wreck. Know the area well.

Steel wall? Can't wait to see it (won't ask). Area notoriously known for narrow beaches. Lordy.

Quoting 141. wxgeek723:

A 19th century shipwreck was unearthed this weekend at the Jersey Shore by crews building a steel wall (don't ask) in two towns hard hit by Sandy.
Such a strange year. Look at the latitudes where all of our hurricanes cranked up. Watching this one as well as what comes down associated with the remnants of Nuri.


Quoting 158. Jedkins01:

Not very often the source of rain in Puerto Rico comes from a mid-latitude systems.
good morning remember the blogs about poor texas and how dry it was and this could stretch way out in the future. look at the water vapor. good way to help end a long term drought.
not really jenkins nov and dec can be really wet in puerto rico especially the eastern side of the island. of recent yrs the island did not get those heavy nov dec rains. even though there will be some flooding this is a good thing to fill up their resevoirs.
06Z GFS
The GFS is continuing to show a low forming over S. Florida this weekend.
The dry/cool weekend it not looking good for S. Florida.

Hopefully some of this rain get up into S.W. and Central Fl.
Quoting 258. Sfloridacat5:

06Z GFS
The GFS is continuing to show a low forming over S. Florida this weekend.
The dry/cool weekend it not looking good for S. Florida.

Hopefully some of this rain get up into S.W. and Central Fl.



Yep looks like decent rains for the south half of FL.

Quoting thesailer99:
Very sad that the Wunderground is owned by the Weather Channel which is used by CNN and Fox News to spread misinformation about the dangers of climate change. The USA has wasted 30 years of avoiding any action to change its energy policies and is completely unprepared for the changes that are coming. This is going to be a very expensive mistake. http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/climate-threats. html


TWC is owned by NBC...which is the leading news outlet in support of AGW. Consequently, TWC is a strong proponent of the AGW concept.
From Miami NWS...

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS KEEPS LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOVES THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES, THERE COULD BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT ANY RATE, BOTH MODELS SHOW A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AS A ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:



Euro brings a 1038 Arctic High south and freezes most of the US at day 10. Only warm area left is FL. Euro also has a El-Nino type signature as well with a wet looking sub tropical jet coming across the GULF. I suspect lots of fun is on the way across the south with this set up.




It's too early for that, we need to build a hefty snowpack in the northern tier and have a favorable pattern come along first before we can start worrying about more significant wintry wx in the southern US. Using the massive winter storm in February 1973 just as an example, I'll be looking for systems within the subtropical jet undercutting a thumb-projection block in the PNA region, and running into the remnant cold air mass left behind by a southerly displaced PV anomaly in eastern N America (i.e. "overrunning")....


Typhoon Nuri

Typhoon Nuri
Last Updated Nov 4, 2014 06 GMT
Location 22.1N 135.5E Movement NNE
Wind 145 MPH
Quoting 141. wxgeek723:

A 19th century shipwreck was unearthed this weekend at the Jersey Shore by crews building a steel wall (don't ask) in two towns hard hit by Sandy.


Interesting about the ship. More interesting is the steel wall as a cost of mitigating AGW. "Adapt or move" could be a theme to the next centuries experiment with Darwinism.
Despite some losses earlier in the week, the latest Week 44 Eurasian Snow Extent is still quite impressive (although it's getting far too late to matter in terms of Cohen's Siberian SAI), 7th largest on record, trailing 1976, 1972, 1969, 2012, 1973, & 2009. Not too shabby...
267. MAstu
I don't understand this. Are they saying that more sea ice means more warming?

Link

Scientists have identified a mechanism that could turn out to be a big contributor to warming in the Arctic region and melting sea ice.
The research was led by scientists from the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). They studied a long-wavelength region of the electromagnetic spectrum called far infrared. It's invisible to our eyes but accounts for about half the energy emitted by the Earth's surface. This process balances out incoming solar energy.
Despite its importance in the planet's energy budget, it's difficult to measure a surface's effectiveness in emitting far-infrared energy. In addition, its influence on the planet's climate is not well represented in climate models. The models assume that all surfaces are 100 percent efficient in emitting far-infrared energy.
Quoting 261. GeoffreyWPB:

From Miami NWS...

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS KEEPS LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOVES THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES, THERE COULD BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT ANY RATE, BOTH MODELS SHOW A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AS A ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK

Friday Nov. 7 through Tuesday Nov. 11

Quoting 267. MAstu:

I don't understand this. Are they saying that more sea ice means more warming?

Link

Scientists have identified a mechanism that could turn out to be a big contributor to warming in the Arctic region and melting sea ice.
The research was led by scientists from the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). They studied a long-wavelength region of the electromagnetic spectrum called far infrared. It's invisible to our eyes but accounts for about half the energy emitted by the Earth's surface. This process balances out incoming solar energy.
Despite its importance in the planet's energy budget, it's difficult to measure a surface's effectiveness in emitting far-infrared energy. In addition, its influence on the planet's climate is not well represented in climate models. The models assume that all surfaces are 100 percent efficient in emitting far-infrared energy.



They are suggesting that sea ice acts as an emitter of far infrared radiation as a mechanism to explain above average surface temperature during the arctic winter when there is no direct sunlight. It's an interesting idea, but This concept is a hypothesized mechanism, and not necessarily the case, as more direct measurements are needed.

Still, if this is an accurate depiction it may explain some issues such as Arctic Ice melting faster than model projections and does not bode well for the increase in sea ice growth in the Antarctic, which despite winter time increases, is still warming.

Thanks for sharing! :)
Quoting 267. MAstu:

I don't understand this. Are they saying that more sea ice means more warming?

Link

Scientists have identified a mechanism that could turn out to be a big contributor to warming in the Arctic region and melting sea ice.
The research was led by scientists from the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). They studied a long-wavelength region of the electromagnetic spectrum called far infrared. It's invisible to our eyes but accounts for about half the energy emitted by the Earth's surface. This process balances out incoming solar energy.
Despite its importance in the planet's energy budget, it's difficult to measure a surface's effectiveness in emitting far-infrared energy. In addition, its influence on the planet's climate is not well represented in climate models. The models assume that all surfaces are 100 percent efficient in emitting far-infrared energy.



Not at all. The research discussed in the linked article suggests that far infared energy (FIR), which is emitted by most objects, is emitted much less efficiently by open oceans than by those that are iced over. So it's yet another positive feedback loop: as the Arctic warms and the sea ice melts, more energy is retained, and that phenomenon has contributed to the rapid warming in the Arctic (2 C in just 25 years).
271. MAstu
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:



Not at all. The research discussed in the linked article suggests that far infared energy (FIR), which is emitted by most objects, is emitted much less efficiently by open oceans than by those that are iced over. So it's yet another positive feedback loop: as the Arctic warms and the sea ice melts, more energy is retained, and that phenomenon has contributed to the rapid warming in the Arctic (2 C in just 25 years).

But that's good news for Antarctica since sea ice is expanding there, right?
Vance has begun to weaken over the eastern Pacific Ocean but still remains a as of Tuesday morning.

It became a Sunday evening with winds of 105 mph. Its top winds ticked up to 110 mph Monday afternoon and remained there Monday evening.

The government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch for portions of its Pacific coastline on Monday night as Hurricane Vance continues to gradually draw nearer, bringing the potential for high surf and heavy rainfall for parts of the country over the next few days.
Wind shear is already increasing over Vance, and, given Vance's tiny size (hurricane-force winds only up to 15 miles from center), rapid weakening is likely beginning Tuesday. Vance may spin down so quickly that it may never make landfall as a tropical cyclone, rather as a remnant low, late Wednesday or early Thursday generally north of Puerto Vallarta.

Impacts Expected

A tropical storm watch is in effect along the coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan north to Tobolobampo. This watch is entirely within the state of Sinaloa and has been issued as a precaution in case Vance doesn't weaken as quickly as expected.



Given Vance's initially powerful winds, swells from Vance will churn up high surf and rip currents at Mexico's Pacific beaches, even as the storm itself loses steam before reaching land. Social media photos from those beaches Monday showed tranquil conditions, but by Tuesday beachgoers can expect higher surf and dangerous rip currents to arrive.

As Vance or its remnants approach Mexico and move onshore and tangle, very heavy rainfall may result, mainly Thursday and Friday. This could lead to flash flooding in the states of Nayarit, Sinaloa and Durango in northwestern Mexico, especially in areas of rugged terrain. Below is the latest rainfall forecast from the European (ECMWF) computer model. Most of the heavy rain shown over western Mexico will fall between now and Thursday.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants is expected to spread northeastward into south-central portions of the U.S. over the next several days bringing the risk for heavy rain and flash flooding.


Running Out of Names?

Vance is the 20th named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The last time 20 or more named storms formed in that basin was 1992, when the entire list of 24 names was used, ending with Tropical Storm Zeke.

Zeke is also the "Z" storm on this year's list. Eastern Pacific names rotate every six years unless retired, except for names starting with X, Y, and Z. Those are rarely used, and thus just two names are on the list for each of those letters, one male and one female, alternating every other year.

Vance became a Category 1 hurricane Sunday morning, making it the 14th hurricane of 2014 within the Eastern Pacific basin. (Genevieve, which started in the Eastern Pacific, became a hurricane in the Central Pacific basin -- if one counts Genevieve, there have been 15 hurricanes with Eastern Pacific origins this year.)
Quoting 271. MAstu:


But that's good news for Antarctica since sea ice is expanding there, right?


Not really since Antarctic Sea Ice nearly melts completely out in the summer. One of the major differences between the Arctic and Antarctic.
Quoting 269. Naga5000:



They are suggesting that sea ice acts as an emitter of far infrared radiation as a mechanism to explain above average surface temperature during the arctic winter when there is no direct sunlight. It's an interesting idea, but This concept is a hypothesized mechanism, and not necessarily the case, as more direct measurements are needed.

Still, if this is an accurate depiction it may explain some issues such as Arctic Ice melting faster than model projections and does not bode well for the increase in sea ice growth in the Antarctic, which despite winter time increases, is still warming.

Thanks for sharing! :)


Most of the warming in the Antarctic is occurring in the winter when it's already downright frigid, not so much in the summer when the ice actually has a chance to melt...
281. redux
Quoting 271. MAstu:


But that's good news for Antarctica since sea ice is expanding there, right?


consider this. Antarctica is a continent, whilst the Artic is sea ice on top of an ocean. When the fresh water melts from Antarctica and flows to the ocean, does the fresh water mix with the salt water?
Quoting 280. Webberweather53:



Most of the warming in the Antarctic is occurring in the winter when it's already downright frigid, not so much in the summer when the ice actually has a chance to melt...




I think that's the point, this mechanism would explain that anomaly.

"This could help explain why polar warming is most pronounced during the three-month winter when there is no sun. It also complements a process in which darker oceans absorb more solar energy than sea ice"

Of course their research was only for the Arctic, but the same logic should apply.
It's ELECTION DAY in America!

I'm hopeful that AGW gets taken off the front burner of political issues and gets put in the deep freeze where it belongs after today.

There are so many more important things to be focused on than AGW nonsense.
Quoting 269. Naga5000:



They are suggesting that sea ice acts as an emitter of far infrared radiation as a mechanism to explain above average surface temperature during the arctic winter when there is no direct sunlight. It's an interesting idea, but This concept is a hypothesized mechanism, and not necessarily the case, as more direct measurements are needed.

Still, if this is an accurate depiction it may explain some issues such as Arctic Ice melting faster than model projections and does not bode well for the increase in sea ice growth in the Antarctic, which despite winter time increases, is still warming.

Thanks for sharing! :)


Seems like PIOMAS finally gave in a little, and adjusted their modeled arctic sea ice volume upwards for recent years. They claim it's a "conservative" estimate of the actual trend, but I find that statement quite ironic..


Whenever new research into a facet of energy exchange comes out, I always like to sit and wait to see confirming studies using different methodology. If there is one area of research that often gets overlooked, its that there are a lot of "one off" papers that lead nowhere due to inability to replicate or verify.

That being said, this is a very interesting paper and certainly fills a gap in our understanding of polar energy exchange.
Quoting redux:


consider this. Antarctica is a continent, whilst the Artic is sea ice on top of an ocean. When the fresh water melts from Antarctica and flows to the ocean, does the fresh water mix with the salt water?


Clue: Sea Ice is Frozen Salt Water

What is sea ice?

Sea ice is simply frozen ocean water. It forms, grows, and melts in the ocean. In contrast, icebergs, glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves all originate on land. Sea ice occurs in both the Arctic and Antarctic. In the Northern Hemisphere, it can currently exist as far south as Bohai Bay, China (approximately 38 degrees north latitude), which is actually about 700 kilometers (435 miles) closer to the Equator than it is to the North Pole. In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice only develops around Antarctica, occurring as far north as 55 degress south latitude.

Sea ice grows during the winter months and melts during the summer months, but some sea ice remains all year in certain regions. About 15 percent of the world's oceans are covered by sea ice during part of the year.
Quoting 284. Webberweather53:



Seems like PIOMAS finally gave in a little, and adjusted their modeled arctic sea ice volume upwards for recent years. They claim it's a "conservative" estimate of the actual trend, but I find that statement quite ironic..





Right, I was referring to the old IPCC 2007 report which had this:

Quoting 271. MAstu:


But that's good news for Antarctica since sea ice is expanding there, right?


There's growing evidence that ice is fresh water flowing from the bottoms of land based ice melting ever faster.

An Ill Wind Blows in Antarctica, Threatens Global Flooding
Fiercer winds from the Southern Ocean means a faster meltdown of ice

The scientists were blown away by the vicious climate change feedback that they unearthed.

The researchers reported that the shifting winds “produce an intense warming” just below the surface of the ocean. The wind changes were found to be heaving warm currents from deeper waters up into a zone where the Antarctic ice sheet is vulnerable to melt and crumble from beneath — the area where towers of ice sit atop submerged ground.

“It’s a very simple mechanism that we’re identifying,” said Stephen Griffies, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist who contributed to the modeling research, which was published in Geophysical Research Letters. “You raise the warm water to the depth of the ice shelves through the wind changes.”


Link
Quoting 282. Naga5000:




I think that's the point, this mechanism would explain that anomaly.

"This could help explain why polar warming is most pronounced during the three-month winter when there is no sun. It also complements a process in which darker oceans absorb more solar energy than sea ice"

Of course their research was only for the Arctic, but the same logic should apply.


Yes, it is indeed similar to the arctic in terms of what time of the year most of the warming is taking place. There's also likely links to the recent increase in Eurasian snowpack, serving partially as an indicator for strong Rossby Wave Breaking events & more turbulent mixing of the wintertime BDC. In all likelihood given the descending westerly QBO anomalies overlying decaying easterlies, (thermal wind relationship thus suggests top down warming & potential for coupling w/ mid winter warming from underneath in association strong mountain torque event over the Himalayan-Tibet Complex) along w/ of course the aforementioned large Eurasia snowpack & rate of increase, the arctic should be nice & toasty this winter...

There are so many more important things to be focused on than AGW nonsense.

Tell that to the fishermen in Maine :

Scientists: Cancel Maine Shrimp Season Again Because Of Rising Ocean Temperatures


After an alarming report of a collapsed fishery cancelled the shrimp season in the Gulf of Maine last year due to higher water temperatures, it seemed unthinkable to locals that it would happen again.

“There are definitely still people that were holding out hope that we might be able to get in a bit of a season this year,” said Ben Martens, who runs the Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association.

But that’s exactly what a team of scientific experts told the federal regulators who will make the call next week in a draft report, according to the AP. The scientists on the Northern Shrimp Technical Committee told the regulatory body known as the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission that “the depleted condition of the resource” — meaning the shrimp population — can be blamed on “long term trends in environmental conditions.” And the culprit, according to the AP’s take on the draft report, is “rising ocean temperatures.”


Link
Quoting 289. Webberweather53:



Yes, it is indeed similar to the arctic in terms of what time of the year most of the warming is taking place. There's also likely links to the recent increase in Eurasian snowpack, serving partially as an indicator for strong Rossby Wave Breaking events & more turbulent mixing of the wintertime BDC. In all likelihood given the descending westerly QBO anomalies overlying decaying easterlies, (thermal wind relationship thus suggests top down warming & potential for coupling w/ mid winter warming from underneath in association strong mountain torque event over the Himalayan-Tibet Complex) along w/ of course the aforementioned large Eurasia snowpack & rate of increase, the arctic should be nice & toasty this winter...


This is the reason I like your posts on weather, Webber. I freely admit I have little knowledge of the way the regional mechanisms work to affect larger scale patterns like described above. I'm a stats guy and by nature was attracted to climate change as an issue because we can look at numbers and see trends, correlations, and make causal statements if the requirements are met. I once took an intro to meteorology course, and while I did well, we didn't get into anything too complex as is expected in an intro course.

Thanks for the informative post. :)
Quoting 287. Naga5000:



Right, I was referring to the old IPCC 2007 report which had this:




Yep, I completely agree (surprisingly)... For me, the true test & measure of anthroprogenic vs natural factors controlling sea ice in the arctic will be when the AMO flips into its cold mode within the next several years (or sooner) and the response we observe in sea ice & temperatures. Regardless, the faltering AMO since the mid-late 2000s has started to throw on the breaks in terms of the overall/annual downward trend in sea ice extent that was most evident in the upward (rising) phase of the AMO from ~1995-mid/late 2000s...
Quoting 292. Webberweather53:



Yep, I completely agree (surprisingly)... For me, the true test & measure of anthroprogenic vs natural factors controlling sea ice in the arctic will be when the AMO flips into its cold mode within the next several years (or sooner) and the response we observe in sea ice & temperatures. Regardless, the faltering AMO since the mid-late 2000s has started to throw on the breaks in terms of the overall/annual downward trend in sea ice extent that was most evident in the upward (rising) phase of the AMO from ~1995-mid/late 2000s...



One of the things that stands out to me about the recent anomaly trend is the huge increase in variance over the recent years 2007-2013. It's a short time scale, but something we haven't seen in the time series to date. That is something new.
Quoting 291. Naga5000:



This is the reason I like your posts on weather, Webber. I freely admit I have little knowledge of the way the regional mechanisms work to affect larger scale patterns like described above. I'm a stats guy and by nature was attracted to climate change as an issue because we can look at numbers and see trends, correlations, and make causal statements if the requirements are met.

Thanks for the informative post. :)


Thanks... I am also a stats guy and you've probably seen many times already by the amount of graphs I love to throw around ( examples including but not limited to SCE, SAI, Atlantic Hurricane ACE, MJO, etc). (Calculus just doesn't jive w/ me, nearly as much as Statistics), however I try to stay within the realm of shorter term inter annual, intraseaonal, etc. variations in weather & climate as I find it much easier to handle & recognize trends, but that's my opinion. This is certainly one of the few times I can actually admit I've had an intelligent interaction on climate change (or whatever term you'd prefer to use) with anyone, and I appreciate that...
Quoting 293. Naga5000:



One of the things that stands out to me about the recent anomaly trend is the huge increase in variance over the recent years 2007-2013. It's a short time scale, but something we haven't seen in the time series to date. That is something new.


Yeah, I noticed that a few years ago, and am glad you finally mentioned it. I'm honestly not so sure what the reasoning would be for such large variations (though I'm sure thinner sea ice of recent is at least partially to blame). However it has tried to stabilize things a little for a change within the last year or so, and possibly the AMO cooling some of recent had an effect on slowing the amount of warming from underneath the ice, but I'd like to see more data before immediately throwing out theories left & right...
 Yes indeedy! Elections are the best way to settle issues related to science! While we're at it, why not declare that pi=22/7 and be done with all that irrational number foolishness!
Quoting 283. CycloneOz:

It's ELECTION DAY in America!

I'm hopeful that AGW gets taken off the front burner of political issues and gets put in the deep freeze where it belongs after today.

There are so many more important things to be focused on than AGW nonsense.

Quoting 295. Webberweather53:



Yeah, I noticed that a few years ago, and am glad you finally mentioned it. I'm honestly not so sure what the reasoning would be for such large variations (though I'm sure thinner sea ice of recent is at least partially to blame). However it has tried to stabilize things a little for a change within the last year or so, and possibly the AMO cooling some of recent had an effect on slowing the amount of warming from underneath the ice, but I'd like to see more data before immediately throwing out theories left & right...


Agreed.

And like I've said many times here in regards to AGW, I really hope we find something that points to something other than an anthropogenic influence being the main driver. Most of us on the pro-AGW side of the argument are not doomsday wishcasters in terms of climate change. I think for many of us on here, the angry reactions are more towards the mistrust of the scientific process and conspiracy driven thought. And like any debate, the emotion sometimes gets the best of discussion.

Thanks for the conversation. :)
Quoting Naga5000:


Right, I was referring to the old IPCC 2007 report which had this:



Articles like this back in 2007.
Link

Quoting 283. CycloneOz:

It's ELECTION DAY in America!

I'm hopeful that AGW gets taken off the front burner of political issues and gets put in the deep freeze where it belongs after today.

There are so many more important things to be focused on than AGW nonsense.


AGW is only a political issue because the fossil fuel industry--the most profitable one the planet has ever known--has been forced to buy the legions of politicians required to deny the growing mountains of scientific evidence supporting AGW theory, thereby delaying any action on mitigation, which in turn has allowed the Big Oil Profit Monster to continue its unabated mission to devour everything in its path.

No, climate scientists practice climate science. Hence the term...
Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report

That’s about two decades sooner than various models for climatic warming have indicated the Arctic might fully open.

“No models here,” Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik, Iceland, on Sunday. “This is data.”

Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.



By
Alaska Dispatch
November 04, 2014
Quoting 295. Webberweather53:



Yeah, I noticed that a few years ago, and am glad you finally mentioned it. I'm honestly not so sure what the reasoning would be for such large variations (though I'm sure thinner sea ice of recent is at least partially to blame). However it has tried to stabilize things a little for a change within the last year or so, and possibly the AMO cooling some of recent had an effect on slowing the amount of warming from underneath the ice, but I'd like to see more data before immediately throwing out theories left & right...
It's a truism in the statements of people studying the global climate system and its components, that when a system approaches a "tipping point" the state of the system frequently begins oscillating wildly and erratically just before a flip in state. This is also a feature of chaos, and is one reason for concern with the climate system, as more erratic and oscillatory behavior is appearing more frequently.
Quoting 294. Webberweather53:



Thanks... I am also a stats guy and you've probably seen many times already by the amount of graphs I love to throw around ( examples including but not limited to SCE, SAI, Atlantic Hurricane ACE, MJO, etc). (Calculus just doesn't jive w/ me, nearly as much as Statistics), however I try to stay within the realm of shorter term inter annual, intraseaonal, etc. variations in weather & climate as I find it much easier to handle & recognize trends, but that's my opinion. This is certainly one of the few times I can actually admit I've had an intelligent interaction on climate change (or whatever term you'd prefer to use) with anyone, and I appreciate that...
I agree with Naga..Your posts provide info thats not often posted.
Quoting 298. Sfloridacat5:



Articles like this back in 2007.
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I have to be honest, most media sources, including relatively trusted ones like the BBC are sensationalist and are very poor communicators of science. That article, if I remember correctly, was based off a Maslowski paper, which besides bucking the consensus of when the Ice would drop below 1,000,000 sq km, actually gave the range as 2016 plus minus 3 years. So really what he published predicted between 2013 - 2019. His prediction is probably too soon, and more importantly, is a one off publication which didn't really fit into what other models predicted.

The media saw this and jumped. And it is poor reporting.
10 takeaways from the 2014 Arctic Circle Assembly

REYKJAVIK, Iceland -- The second annual Arctic Circle Assembly wrapped up Sunday in this beautiful city on the western shore of a 40,000-square-mile, volcanic rock in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean, and most of the 1,300 people who came from around the globe to discuss the future of the Arctic began boarding the jet airplanes that would take them home.

The dream of Iceland President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the small country's No. 1 promoter, and Alice Rogoff, publisher of Alaska Dispatch News, the assembly is part economic summit, part environmental conference, and part social gathering that does nothing so much as encourage discussion of Arctic issues.

Here are 10 main takeaways from the discussions at the 2014 assembly:

1. The Big Thaw Has Only Just Begun. Everywhere scientists gathered here there was talk of feedback loops of one sort or another. Melting permafrost is releasing methane gas, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, to fuel more Arctic warming. Melting sea ice is exposing more ocean to the sun to capture more solar radiation to fuel more Arctic warming. Warming Arctic water is evaporating to form more water vapor, yet another greenhouse gas, to fuel Arctic warming. All of this is now underway, and as British physicist Peter Wadhams observed, there seems no natural mechanism for turning these processes off. There seemed a broad consensus that even if the developed world acts soon to reduce carbon dioxide emissions -- an iffy proposition -- the Arctic is going to continue warming for decades. Wadhams is predicting the end of the polar ice cap by the summer of 2020.


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Quoting 297. Naga5000:



Agreed.

And like I've said many times here in regards to AGW, I really hope we find something that points to something other than an anthropogenic influence being the main driver. Most of us on the pro-AGW side of the argument are not doomsday wishcasters in terms of climate change. I think for many of us on here, the angry reactions are more towards the mistrust of the scientific process and conspiracy driven thought. And like any debate, the emotion sometimes gets the best of discussion.

Thanks for the conversation. :)


Everything is a conspiracy nowadays. I couldn't agree more with your statement. Been on YT lately? It's quite comical.
307. NNYer
Quoting 290. ColoradoBob1:


There are so many more important things to be focused on than AGW nonsense.

Tell that to the fishermen in Maine :

Scientists: Cancel Maine Shrimp Season Again Because Of Rising Ocean Temperatures


After an alarming report of a collapsed fishery cancelled the shrimp season in the Gulf of Maine last year due to higher water temperatures, it seemed unthinkable to locals that it would happen again.

“There are definitely still people that were holding out hope that we might be able to get in a bit of a season this year,” said Ben Martens, who runs the Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association.

But that’s exactly what a team of scientific experts told the federal regulators who will make the call next week in a draft report, according to the AP. The scientists on the Northern Shrimp Technical Committee told the regulatory body known as the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission that “the depleted condition of the resource” — meaning the shrimp population — can be blamed on “long term trends in environmental conditions.” And the culprit, according to the AP’s take on the draft report, is “rising ocean temperatures.”


Link


Bob, thanks for the link to the article. I was wondering why I didn't see Maine shrimp in stores last year. They are (were) my favorite kind. Highly recommend that folks read this, it also points out how much of a knucklehead Maine's governor Lepage is. He states that global warming would be good for his state and the economy. Amazing!
Quoting 306. GatorWX:



Everything is a conspiracy nowadays. I couldn't agree with your statement more. Been on YT lately? It's quite comical.


I try to stay away. My doctor has told me I need to take in less crazy. :)

I've been trying to figure out if conspiracy ideation has increased or if the rapid increase in mass communication is just allowing more conspiracy theories to be presented to a large audience. It certainly plays well to the public though, it feeds on fear and mistrust and uncertainty.
Another beautiful morning in Cape Fear area. It's weather like today that makes you forget there's likely zero chance of a playoff berth. The game in Jacksonville on the 30th will just be for folly fun.
Quoting 307. NNYer:



Bob, thanks for the link to the article. I was wondering why I didn't see Maine shrimp in stores last year. They are (were) my favorite kind. Highly recommend that folks read this, it also points out how much of a knucklehead Maine's governor Lepage is. He states that global warming would be good for his state and the economy. Amazing!



Maybe the shrimp will come precooked in a salt water brine in the future?
Quoting 311. Naga5000:




Maybe the shrimp will come precooked in a salt water brine in the future?


If the pH keeps dropping we'll be getting soft-shelled shrimp and lobsters pretty soon.
Quoting 307. NNYer:


Bob, thanks for the link to the article. I was wondering why I didn't see Maine shrimp in stores last year. They are (were) my favorite kind. Highly recommend that folks read this, it also points out how much of a knucklehead Maine's governor Lepage is. He states that global warming would be good for his state and the economy. Amazing!


I live in Maine and unfourtunately about one-third of the state are exactly like him. Bombastic and pig-headed. Since the last election was a three way race, he got just enough to get elected.

On to the weather, just had our growing season end this morning in Portland. In NOVEMBER. First time that the first frost has had to wait that long. Previous record was October 25th, last year.
Quoting 312. JohnLonergan:



If the pH keeps dropping we'll be getting soft-shelled shrimp and lobsters pretty soon.


That's a time saver. :) And they said there would be no benefits.
Quoting 309. Naga5000:



I try to stay away. My doctor has told me I need to take in less crazy. :)

I've been trying to figure out if conspiracy ideation has increased or if the rapid increase in mass communication is just allowing more conspiracy theories to be presented to a large audience. It certainly plays well to the public though, it feeds on fear and mistrust and uncertainty.


Absolutely it's increased, at least in the amount of believers. People aren't tuning in to mass media to nearly the degree they once did. Newspaper subscriptions have dropped to nil and I haven't even checked the facts, but it certainly seems logical to believe cable and satellite subscriptions have stagnated or dropped. I also feel more and more people have a general mistrust of what they're told by officials and more of a trust to alternatives. Although not all conspiracies are without premise, such as those surrounding our food industry, etc, but many are simply so outlandish, how they gain as large of a following as they do is beyond my comprehension. There certainly is a general distrust and that's obviously feeding it. Combine that with the immense outlets of media available and the fact anyone, no matter how qualified to speak, has a voice and you have what we have.
Quoting 283. CycloneOz:

It's ELECTION DAY in America!

I'm hopeful that AGW gets taken off the front burner of political issues and gets put in the deep freeze where it belongs after today.

There are so many more important things to be focused on than AGW nonsense.
Absolutely. Congress has so much more to not get done than to not act on AGW. Things such as “Gospel Music Heritage Month”, repealing the Clean Water Act, finding Obama's birth certificate and apologizing to BP for suing them over the Deep Water Horizon spill are much more important to debate and not act upon.
Quoting Naga5000:


I have to be honest, most media sources, including relatively trusted ones like the BBC are sensationalist and are very poor communicators of science. That article, if I remember correctly, was based off a Maslowski paper, which besides bucking the consensus of when the Ice would drop below 1,000,000 sq km, actually gave the range as 2016 plus minus 3 years. So really what he published predicted between 2013 - 2019. His prediction is probably too soon, and more importantly, is a one off publication which didn't really fit into what other models predicted.

The media saw this and jumped. And it is poor reporting.


Comment #300

"Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report"

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Nagaa, not until you thaw them out from the Saltwater Glaciers.
Quoting 315. GatorWX:



Absolutely it's increased, at least in the amount of believers. People aren't tuning in to mass media to nearly the degree they once did. Newspaper subscriptions have dropped to nil and I haven't even checked the facts, but it certainly seems logical to believe cable and satellite subscriptions have stagnated or dropped. I also feel more and more people have a general mistrust of what they're told by officials and more of a trust to alternatives. Although not all conspiracies are without premise, such as those surrounding our food industry, etc, but many are simply so outlandish, how they gain as large of a following as they do is beyond my comprehension. There certainly is a general distrust and that's obviously feeding it. Combine that with the immense outlets of media available and the fact anyone, no matter how qualified to speak, has a voice and you have what we have.


I should say and I suppose it's somewhat of an argument to my point, social media has certainly allowed proponents of issues a loud voice. Using my food industry example again. Look at the amount of GMO free, organic, rBGH free dairy, locally sourced, etc that is now on store shelves. These changes weren't because of govt intervention, but people speaking out and consumers changing their spending habits in the grocery stores. I suppose certain aspects originated from "officials" in the health industry, but early on, many overlooked it and thought it to be expensive and an unworthy alternative. More and more people joined in on the argument against corporate foods and we now have a whole new industry booming. I'm a huge proponent of the farm to table process. The saying, you are what you eat, is about as legit as it gets. So with that said, although their is more lunacy out there on YT, fb, etc, there's also a lot of logic put forth by perhaps more educated and qualified folks.
Naga, got mail
The fourth time in the last 60 days :

South-eastern France hit by violent storms


Winds reached up to 160km/h in parts of the Rhône Valley overnight on Monday.

The country’s meteorological service Météo France said heavy rains will continue in the region until Wednesday morning. As much as 450mm of rain could fall before the storms pass.


Link
Quoting 317. Sfloridacat5:



Comment #300

"Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report"




Right, a scientists using a statistical model is claiming "ice free" by 2020, which is in direct competition to the actual IPCC report. I don't get what your point is.
Quoting 320. GatorWX:



I should say and I suppose it's somewhat of an argument to my point, social media has certainly allowed proponents of issues a loud voice. Using my food industry example again. Look at the amount of GMO free, organic, rBGH free dairy, locally sourced, etc that is now on store shelves. These changes weren't because of govt intervention, but people speaking out and consumers changing their spending habits in the grocery stores. I suppose certain aspects originated from "officials" in the health industry, but early on, many overlooked it and thought it to be expensive and an unworthy alternative. More and more people joined in on the argument against corporate foods and we now have a whole new industry booming. I'm a huge proponent of the farm to table process. The saying, you are what you eat, is about as legit as it gets. So with that said, although their is more lunacy out there on YT, fb, etc, there's also a lot of logic put forth by perhaps more educated and qualified folks.
Post #315 and this are great posts. Thank you for them..many +,s
325. 64jcl
Quoting 304. Naga5000:



I have to be honest, most media sources, including relatively trusted ones like the BBC are sensationalist and are very poor communicators of science. That article, if I remember correctly, was based off a Maslowski paper, which besides bucking the consensus of when the Ice would drop below 1,000,000 sq km, actually gave the range as 2016 plus minus 3 years. So really what he published predicted between 2013 - 2019. His prediction is probably too soon, and more importantly, is a one off publication which didn't really fit into what other models predicted.

The media saw this and jumped. And it is poor reporting.


Indeed, like all estimates they have a range - media always choose the end with the most sensationalist view.

If you look at some pure statistical models 2019 is still theoretically possible:

Piomas trend

Personally I believe the Arctic will be practically ice free in 2020.