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Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting sar2401:


Also the only secular hit song based on verses from the Bible - Ecclesiastes, chapter 3.


That would make a good music category question on Jeopardy........... :)
does anyone remember back in 2004 if we had this many early troughs?
Should be a vary good day for ex TD 7
Well there's a rain cooled cool down I'll take it. :)

Quoting kshipre1:
does anyone remember back in 2004 if we had this many early troughs?


There was a big one that turned Charley. That I think maybe the scenario this year.
Quoting sar2401:


Also the only secular hit song based on verses from the Bible - Ecclesiastes, chapter 3.


"The song is notable for being one of a few instances in popular music in which a large portion of scripture is set to music, other examples being The Melodians' "Rivers of Babylon", Sister Janet Mead's "The Lord's Prayer", and U2's "40"."

wikipedia
1007. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well up to now anyway the Bermuda High has been pretty strong too. I'm with you timing is the key. And it's not over yet. Would be nice but not yet.


yeah, too many parameters to dismiss the season..timing of troughs..placement of highs and depends on how strong the CV storms are..
1008. VR46L
Hmmm Rather interesting blob in the Bay of Campeche
Looks impressive in rainbow


Not to bad in funktop


and Vapour

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That would make a good music category question on Jeopardy........... :)
So for this I definitely have to go back and read the previous page... lol

Morning everybody... beautiful day here in Nassau, though I dare say the heat will be massive later on...

Enjoy your Monday!
Quoting Tazmanian:
Should be a vary good day for ex TD 7

Hey Taz. What do you think about all the dry air ahead of former TD7?
I agree with you and logically looking at the upper air pattern and continuous troughs moving down, it seems unlikely that a Frances or Jeanne path is not probable but I would not count that out because all it takes a strong High in the atlantic and a weak trough to steer a tropical storm or hurricane westward. really all about timing of troughs.
This is how WWIII can accidently break out right here, over stupid stuff

U.S. destroyer, oil tanker collide

(CNN) -- A U.S. guided missile destroyer was involved in a collision with an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy announced.

yeah that seems likely. I was wondering because in 2004, south florida got hit by back to back hurricanes move westward moving systems not affected by troughs and that was a weak to moderate el nino. rest of season will be interesting.
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is how WWIII can accidently break out right here, over stupid stuff

U.S. destroyer, oil tanker collide

(CNN) -- A U.S. guided missile destroyer was involved in a collision with an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy announced.

u know any heads still attached to bodies have already rolled...
Quoting mikatnight:


"The song is notable for being one of a few instances in popular music in which a large portion of scripture is set to music, other examples being The Melodians' "Rivers of Babylon", Sister Janet Mead's "The Lord's Prayer", and U2's "40"."

wikipedia
Can you count Sister Janet Mead's song as "pop" music???

Now if the Jeopardy question asked for a pop song based on scripture and appropriate for describing the behaviour of at least one weather phenomenon....
1016. sabres
If I don't get any rain along the coast here in Brevard county (FL) with a strong trough like that, I think I'll just give up on getting any significant rainfall this summer altogether! So far this month I'm sitting at 0.06."
Running a few models on TW7 again. They look familiar. Link
Quoting kshipre1:
yeah that seems likely. I was wondering because in 2004, south florida got hit by back to back hurricanes move westward moving systems not affected by troughs and that was a weak to moderate el nino. rest of season will be interesting.
Jeanne got pulled north by a trough, I think, but the high built back in before it could go all the way out to sea...

@home, when do you have to go back to work? or have you all already started back?
1020. LargoFl
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Can you count Sister Janet Mead's song as "pop" music???

Now if the Jeopardy question asked for a pop song based on scripture and appropriate for describing the behaviour of at least one weathe phenomenon....


And the winning weather/trof/music song is?............. :)

Good Morning........Beautiful indeed this am for Florida and the Bahamas.
el.nino.petering.out?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can believe that.There are photos that I saw of the hoods of cars being pilled back.Really stunning images to see.It's amazing the death toll was low in Charlie.


I think the death toll was low in large part because Charley was a relatively small, compact storm that moved very quickly. Never the less, that storm impacted many lives for years to come
Quoting sabres:
If I don't get any rain along the coast here in Brevard county (FL) with a strong trough like that, I think I'll just give up on getting any significant rainfall this summer altogether! So far this month I'm sitting at 0.06."


Very true. While most of Florida is in great shape, East Central FL is hurting. In south Osceola county we only had 4.48" for July and only 0.78" to date for August. We had a great June though with over 12".
AAAK, its the ol' 5 minute break.....so before i return to my misery, i leave you with this:

In making long-range outlooks forecasters look at persistence charts, we tell us the degree to which a particular month or seasons weather is likely to continue into the next month or season or likely to reverse. Research tells us that on a national basis the greatest persistence of temperature patterns is June to August and again for December to January. So we know the summer is not a good predictor of fall or winter weather. In other words, from an historic climatological view point the coming two seasons can go either way following a hot summer…because they have in the past.
The lowest correlation of persistence is between October and November, or put another way. October temperature patterns yield almost zero clue as to what November will bring.

full article: Early peak at autumn and winter weather

I'll be bach in many hours.. :(
New blog, ya'll.
1029. sabres
I had nearly 7" in June, but only 3" in July so it has been a downward trend for us this summer. A few wet days can change that though ...
1030. hydrus
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can believe that.There are photos that I saw of the hoods of cars being pilled back.Really stunning images to see.It's amazing the death toll was low in Charlie.
Remarkably low..A testament to the building codes established after Andrew.
1031. MahFL
Quoting BahaHurican:
u know any heads still attached to bodies have already rolled...


Captain was Tweeting, lol.