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Remains of TD 10 still spinning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:33 PM GMT on August 16, 2005

As of 4pm EDT, the remains of TD 10 are still spinning, but the system is definitely suffering from strong west to southwesterly winds aloft that are shearing it. There is a low level circulation at about 17N 53W, and the shearing winds have ripped away a mid-level circulation that is about 100 miles to the east of the surface circulation. Some very isolated convection on the northeast and northwest sides of the surface circulation indicate that this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression. However, it is traversing the base of a large trough with some dry air and 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, so development today is unlikely. By Wednesday, the remains of TD 10 will have a better chance, as shear values will probably drop to the 10-20 knot range as it moves to the WNW between 10 and 15 mph and escapes the trough. I'd put the odds of it redeveloping into a tropical depression again at 50/50. The shear today may very well completly disrupt the circulation, making it an open wave that won't develop again.


Figure 1. Wind shear values over the remains of TD 10 were 20 - 25 knots at 8am EDT today (12 GMT), but are lower to the WNW.

Irene
Irene is looking the best it has ever looked, and latest satellite intensity estimates put it as a strong Category One hurricane with 90 mph sustained winds. Irene doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, though, as shearing winds and cold water will convert it to a regular extratropical storm by Thursday.

The Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean
The latest big cloud of African dust is now halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Thunderstorm activity in the ITCZ area just south of this dust cloud is unimpressive today. Stong upper-level winds associated with a large upper-level low pressure system cover most of the Caribbean, and tropical development here is unlikely today.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nice update :)
Extratropical storm sounds omnious for western Europe. Well we have to wait and see what she brings when she hits us
A lot of websites have TD10 already called TD10. Looks like people are expecting this thing to get its classification back soon.
The corps (not quite) of TD 10 is of some concern to this Virgin Islander. The waxing and waning is eerily reminiscent of Irene's birth, only less latitude. We like to see storms over 20 degrees in those waters, but are comforted by the reportedly hostile environment.
its way to early to tell something about this storm
147257, welcome back.
thnx punkasshans :-) where is alec btw?
Link here it definetley a eye
Thats something out in the pacific. . i think greg or something like that. Nice circulation, dead and not much to look at.

Irene definately has an eye right now, and looking nice. The GFDL has it strengthening to a category 4 storm (however, it will probably be extratropical before that time). TD10 might not be anything at all. Convection has died down, but if it can reburst later today or tomorrow, we will have it as a TD again. The hurricane center just wants some definate signs of life. However, for some reason, they didnt downgrade TD9 when it lost its convection. . .
they had more trust in it why downgrade and upgrade it 3 hours later again
147257 - that dont look like no eye at all. its no where near.
Thats kinda my point 147257. The NHC really must not have trust in this system (or at least didnt in the past) to downgrade it. So maybe we really wont see the growth I expect. However, i will stick with my prediction untill its gone. convection is completely gone now.
not an eye, but its definetly spinning nicely still.

The trend with this system has been for a few blobs of convection to fire up overnight and die out during the day, just what you would expect for a weak tropical system.
heres an amateur question...
why does it fire up at night and die in the day. doesnt the sun amplify the storms, like it does over land? I would think they would die during the night time, ??
12Z GFDL basically dissipates system now. This afternoon storm still seems to look anemic. I still think this will develop in about 24 to 48 hours, but we will see.
Where would this storm go if it redevelops?
EvanKisseloff,

Here is a page with models for TD10:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

These are the most recent models, only out a few hrs ago. . if not more recent.
The 18z BAM models are now taking the TD10 remnant wnw and then bending a little westward toward/across the central Bahamas in five days in the general direction of Florida. These models are better for shallow, weak systems like this thing is now, but if it strengthens in a couple days I would think the new BAMs may be a little far south.
INTERESTING!:

Nogaps after 120 hrs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005081612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Storm near Texas, if you follow it back, it starts near Panama from the cluster of storms that is there currently.
The low level swirl of the former TD 10 looks better than I expected it to--but looking over the islands there seems to be westerly shear over them as well. So I am not sure why the shear over the system is expected to weaken.
They finally moved the Floater over TD10. Looks like the center of circulation is actually drifting wsw at the moment. Definately has a nice circulation. Will have to see what happens over the next 5-6 hours with the convection.
And on other news. . Irene now a Cateogroy 2 hurricane. Just needed to get going east and this thing blossomed. 100 mph at the moment. However, it is expected to start the weakening process soon. . and it appears in the satellite images to be reaching the shear at this moment.
StSimons, the shear over the islands is due to the strong upper low(central Caribbean) on the sw end of the upper trough. The GFS predicts this upper low will keep moving southwestward and weaken while the entire upper trough tends to fill in somewhat over the next few days, so when the TD10 remnant gets to the area north of Puerto Rico the upper level wind should be much less.
No there is a large ridge building in this is not like harvey or I rene at the moment and the bamm models are not too far south I would want to watch this one in florida if it develops into anything that is...Also it is too early to worry or to know where exactly to go but I believe this will not be like an Irene or a franklin.
i like what im strting to see at 23.0n and 93.0 w...there is no shear and this system right now is moving towards the la coast slowly...this really bears watching..i see a weak ciculation starting to develop....
i have started td 10 updates on my blog
you are wasting time turtle nothing will come of this...there is to much dry air for this thing to be named...
stormtop, i am not telling you that you are wasting your time looking at the gulf when i think it doesnt have a chance of development. this is a place to learn, lets leave it that way.

Where is this spin you are seeing in the gulf stormtop?
TD10 now has new convection firing around the center. I still think this will be designated a depression either tonight or sometime tomorrow. It is too close to the islands to risk not declaring it now.
you can see it clearly in the ir loop
Here we go again, guys... Stormtop talking up some non-existent feature in the Gulf while telling us we are wasting our time talking about an actual surface circulation in the tropical Atlantic.
stormtrop, stop being foolish, i am really tired of u making fun of other forecasts when u r always wrong
I THINK I may be seeing this "spin", but STORMTOP is wrong in saying that there is no shear. There appears to be tons of shear over this system, based on the visible satellite loop.
punk im not saying it wont be a depression but it wont get any futher then that with all the dry air around it...it will drain the system dry...
look at the ir no shear shows up around this system...
stormtop,

i am seeing a clockwise spin if anything, i am just not seeing this low pressure spin you are talking about.

i will see tomorrow when i can get back to a computer

when does the next tropical weather outlook come out? does anyone know? thanks
Also, there appears to be less dry air surrounding this system than surrounded Irene, which became a tropical storm and eventually strengthened to a cat. 2 hurricane. So, unfortunately, we cannot, in ANY way, right off this system in the middle of the Atlantic or its POSSIBLE threat to land.
punk, I also noticed the pretty good blowup of convection on the north and west side of the center of the TD10 remant.
Hey StormFlop - we should all appreciate the efforts of others and not belittle them.
The next outlook comes at 5:30 EDT (in about 2 minutes).
Hawk, what is the spin up just to the right of the center of circulation (well, probably hundreds of miles away). I thought it was interesting but I dont understand it. You can see it on a visible image.
wellif i was so wrong we would be sitting here talking about a parade of storms coming off the african coast..we are not talking about anything because i said long ago not even the computers are nhc knew the dust was going to be extreme off the african coast...so stop trying to say im belittling everyone...if it wasnt for me you would have never known about the dust...why you thing i revised my prediction from 22 stormrs down to 16...i dont think that would be to hard to figure out now would it...he can look at the thing all he wants i just say it wont amount to anything because of the dryness in the air....
Hey guys......remnants of TD10 is trying to hold on....definitely worth keeping an eye on.....theres definitely a spin at the surface unlike in some areas.....ON the other hand, in the gulf, i dont see anything but an upperlevel low near alabama coast.....theres to much shear over the southwest gulf and at the surface theres strong easterlies......
weatherboy who is talking about alabama...im talking at 23.0n and 93.0 w...we are definitely not on the same page...
By the way stormtop....there is no revising your prediction.....what do you think, your WILLIAM GRAY.... I have logged everyones prediction.....no revising.....and your prediction was 20 on July 25, I have it written down and if I had too, I could go back to the archives on here and get it.
I know your talking about 23.0 and 93.0, too much shear(SW winds), no surface circulation, all easterly winds, thats very simple to see......granted theres lots of small convection, but thats it.......
Stormtop- I think DauphinIslandDunes is a female so shes very sensitive for people. haha

Anyway, that convection you guys are talking about looks to be going N maybe NW
cool fight fight fight fight
LOL

Im just making observations.. afterall isnt that what we all are doing... lol
ya i know that thanks whirlwind
You guys REALLY need to go to your own blogs to settle this argument. Also, everyone needs to stop badmouthing everyone else NOW!!!!!!!! A good deal of us are amateurs who know little or nothing and are trying to learn something. The petty arguing NEEDS TO STOP!!!!!!!!!~:(
Here are the Predictions as of July 25, 2005, for the total storms to form in the atlantic.....

Moocrew--20
Alec--16
WSI--17
Deb1--24
Turtlehurricane--19
Canenut--16
K8ei--11
Toyotaman--18
Kjcanon--13
Cjnew--18
Isobar5--22
Hurricaneking--21
Corpuswatch--17
Emmyrose--12
Orionbarkwood--18
Stsimonsisland--16
Hootiethebooty--22
outrocket--14
Txweather--18
Raysfan--16
Orlandocanewatcher--19
Cherikem--20
And finally Mr. Stormtop--20
Yours truly--14
weatherboy i said this 3 week s ago when i saw all the dust coming off the coast...i knew we wouldnt have a cape verds season...if you want me to stick to 29 then i will but if im not mistaken alec changed his also...i had 16...i have to stick to 20?
Hey, could I add my prediction? I just joined this blog last week. If so, my prediction is 24, the 7 before August, and 16 after August 1 (that means 14 more). Please answer me in my blog so that we don't clog Dr. Master's.
Yes thats what makes this fun....You make a prediction and go with it.....and by the way, the average of all those predictions came out to be 17.54 storms and we have 9 so far......
TD 10 is having a nice spurt of convection
Yeah I will add you tornadoty with an asterisk*.....LOL
dauphine are you a female? im sorry for the way i spoke to you and i want to make a public apology in front of the whole blog...im a good ;looking guy and im sorry if i rubbed you the wrong way i should know better then that...guy and gals from here on out you are going to see a new stormtop starting today..im sorry once again dauphine if i hurt your feelings please come back and answer my post for we can be friends again...im sorry...
I just went over my math. My guess of 24 (which will not change) would mean 15 more storms, not 14. Oops!:)
And 17 after Aug. 1. :)
stormtrop, first ur being mean and now ur hitting on blog members-lol
hey guys could you give me a list of the females on this blog...i need to know who im talking to...
Babuyaaaaaaaa.....your right about that convection Turtle.......its covering almost all of the low level circulation....pretty high cloud tops.....very interesting, it that persist for a while....that will raise some eyebrows......
ya, in my blog i say Td 10 will be re declared tomorrow. it shows even with just a little less shear this storm can really get organized.
omg turtle are you a female to?
I am a female, Stormtop FYI.

And my very uneducated guess is that we will have unlucky 13 more named storms this year. And three of them will be Cat 2's or more. Of course I am just talking out of my...

mouth.
LOL@Stormtop.. buddy..quote"im a good ;looking guy "

what does that have to do with being not nice..? LOL

what if your ugly like weatherboyfsu, then your nice??
(j/k fsu)
no hurrycane if thats what you honestly think i respect your opinion hun..thank you for letting me know you are female..i want to know how long have you been interested in hurricanes and where are you from?
WHIRLWIND....WHIRLWIND....you must be an gator or a Miami Hurricane to pull that..........
I also sense maybe Stormtop is single....so where are YOU from? LMAO.... (sorry)
weatherboyfsu-- you like that huh? lol

Im a fan of *any* hurricane...
Orlando, and you
I don't know how to predict how many storms will be around in the future, because I have absolutely no training in meteorology! My credentials are: The Weather Channel, NOAA, and Wunderground (which is by far the best for me). So like the idea of 13 for no good reason.
I live on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi and have been tracking storms since I was little on a sheet that comes in our newspaper every hurricane season. My Mom always had us fill them out. I have had my share of hurricanes to go through. So as not to bore people, I will suggest you look in my blog for more info. Thank you for asking.
signed,
"Hun"
LOL
Im in Palm Beach..just graduated FAU...
we need to get back on track here..this isnt a singles chat...but more women would be nice :D

so stormtop.. anything new in the tropics?
Whirlwind are you female or male?
Hey, why don't we go to another blog to chat like this so Jeff's won't be cluttered by this?
maybe it might be a good idea on the next software update to put a M or F next to your user name to avoid conflicts like this...but it is funny
Have a good day guys.....will see how Remnants of TD10 develops....later
td 10 has expanding convention
My apologies to all ... but a last word is in order.
Calling other peoples efforts "wasting time" is not respectful. I do believe in being respectful even though I realize we all have our moments.
StormTop, you say that I should "do your [my] part" - OK I will - no more negative messages from me - Ill consider them a waste of time. Now how about you StormTop - can you rise to your own challenge and "do your part" - how about no belittling of people or their efforts for the rest of this month.
punk, the spin to the east of the TD10 surface circulation is just the leftover mid-level spin from last night's convection. It will continue to fade off to the east and diminish. The surface circulation, however, should get a nice boost from the strong convection firing over the center now.
stormtrop, go somewhere else with ur lame internet dating. i actually want to talk about cyclones.
SWF 35..petite. Interested in Internet, creole food, tropical cyclones.
Seeking
SWM 35-45...Don't care if you still live with Mom or have a job. Prefer Internet obsessed and bad teeth. Looking to share po' boys and po' forecasting.
wat did that mean?
GOOD GRIEF
BRAVO cosmic.
o i get it
GET A ROOM... other than this. Stormtop....do you realize VIPIR is RADAR, NOT A MODEL???
Do y'all think of the remnant of TD 10 is getting stronger? In the satellite loops I think I see some increase in circulation but also continued shearing. Later.
Dauphin, for the US coast to have any chance to get hit by TD10/Jose the current scenario of intermittent brief blobs of convection with ongoing shear will have to continue for a couple more days. The brief convection that fires up keeps the system spinning while the bad shear ensures the system stays very weak which allows it to move more westerly and stay south of the weaknesses we keep getting across the western Atlantic.
oh dauphine i said this before you came on i was going to be a new storm top and im sorry for what i said to you i was way out of line hun...
she vipor is a new model only used in the gulf of mexico storms...
lol@cosmic events you a female to?
ok guys anything new on the disturbance?
MWF 35
thought we were talking about tropics Guys and girls
swm 42
we are ray its just been slow this week ...it will pick up next week..we will have our hands full...
stormtop I know that I am new to this but the reason that I am on here is to try and learn something from people here and all that I have read for 20 minutes in nonsense. I don't know alot about storms and would like to know more about the tropics, SO CAN WE PLEASE
TO THE TOPIC ???????????????????????
I am glad that things might get back to the way they were here a few weeks ago.

Please
yes mam im sorry i just thought it was a good time to get to know the guys and gals we argue with all the time and get to know more about them...
Thank You thought I was on a singles hook up blog.
So what about TD #10 I give it a good shot just like Irene did.
new models are pointing at florida
no ray you are on a hurricane blog and we will teach you all you need to know...
thank you very much.
checked out the models let's hope that it is wrong.
turtle can tell you more about that rae..im waiting until they name it if that happens..
looks like the convection is staying strong. That can/can't be a good thing. Right. Good for the storm, possibly bad for Florida or someone else. RIGHT?
well rae i think the dry air will squeeze all the moisture out of this and cause it to weaken...the dust is still aroungd rae and that will eventually kill this so called depression..the convection always looks better at night....
i was agreeing with ray
you know i only like one model and thats the viper which is used for the gulf only...the other models in my opinion are always out to lunch..
i know strom you have said that it will not die down until next week 21 or 22. (AFRICAN DUST)
so i have learned something in all this mess.
thanks guys for teaching me something in all this mess that has gone on
Irene made it storm, maybe this one to i think we have fighters this year.
yes ray then all will break loose...
Raysfan, it would be probably be good for Florida if TD10 started strengthening now because a stronger/taller system would have a better chance of turning northward into the open ocean. The worst case for Florida would be if TD10 stayed very weak and kept moving more westerly for a couple days, moving just north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, and then began strengthening. At that point it could be too far south to get picked up by a big trough swinging off the US east coast this coming weekend.
i think its a TD right now, look at the structure of it. Waht a difference 6 hours makes!
ray the only thing you have to worry about this week is a storm forming in the gulf or nw caribbean...i think in my opinion there is to much shear there now so you are home free this week...
what about the high
you know nothing surprises me about this season seems like things this year are weird. The trough's , the dust and storms that shouldn't have survived survived.
the high is east of bermuda right now but its expected to build west after the trough moves on out...
is that what the high did last year that sent all the storms to Fla.?
I have no formal meteorological schooling. Jeff says it's 50-50 about TD10? surviving. I'll have to go with that for now. But to this novice it looks awfully symetric, with decent outflow in at least 2 quadrants. Those early models do look ominous.
Shear is not forecasted to get better for TD 10 until at least Thursday, so the chances of this thing developing until then are slim. The High pressure system currently over Florida is forecasted to build west/southwestward during the week into the Gulf. Then by early next week it is forecasted to move back over Florida and move to the north of Florida. This will be very critical if something was to form. If this High was to retreat to the north and east of Florida this could bring the possible storm more west. If it was to stay in its position over Florida we would almost have the same senerio as Irene. Again 5 to 7 days out, without a storm even developed yet is very hard to forecast.
i cant believe its where it is now. a few days ago it was barely able to hold a cloud!
And I'd feel a lot better if a certain forecaster wannabe told we to worry. When he says I'm "home free" I start to worry.
wg03 if the high builds w/sw would that keep the storm away from fla?
so if it comes back over florida (in the positon that it is now) that means more of a threat for south florida then central florida?
no ray it came back more east right along the fla coast and let the storms turn into fla..they came from the caribbean last year except 2 i believe...
Whats Up All?
StormTop-What are your credintials regarding your knowledge of the tropics?

Does anyone know where I can get links to the various forcast models?

What's everyones thoughts on a cold and frozen south this winter?
ray it means more of a threat for all of florida...if it stays that way but you have to have a storm out there to worry ray...
storm junkie i have credentials 30 years of experience...and you?
so is it really to early for all the models to really get ahold of this thing,
Again...I'm an amateur....but from what I've read the high is projected to be not in the same position as last year. Either further west allowing for a curvature...or a bridging high at a lower latitude. Direction depends on storm intensity. Too far away...and way too early to predict. TD10 could be dissipated tomorrow morning.
No offense, I was just wondering. Amt that has lived on the southeast coast my whole life. Sat through the eye of Hugo. I think that someone said that storm was a Cat one when it made landfall, but when the power went out at my house it was still a Cat 3-4.
yes ray definitely
I think it was THE LEDGER from south florida that I read which said the high was going to be almost in the same place as it was last year. That is why I am asking.
I think the worst, is the waiting, and waiting, apprehension and hope at the same time...last year jeanne and frances came here after dark, exhilarating and frightening all the same.
Hey Ray. What the setup will be as we go into this week. We have one High pressure system currently building into Florida from the east. We will have another High (larger) near bermuda. The high that is over florida currently will be moving wsw as a weak trough approaches the eastern US. If the storm would be moving towards Florida and this was the senerio it would turn the storm more to the NW. If the High was over Florida, less of a threat, like Irene. If the high moves north and east and kind of merges with bermuda high then the storm could move west, more of a threat. I hope that explained it for ya.
i agree aquak the waiting is the worse
Hi guy's. How is the weather in the Bahamas in August? We will be there next week for a week. Just wondering what to expect. Any help is appreciated.

Thanks,Gary from New Mexico
good explanation weatherboy....
thank you all, I have to go time for bed. Thank you again for answering my questions, sorry if they are stupid but am learning.
We have meteorologist here that we call Tim "head-for-the-hills-we're-all-gonna-die" Deegan....the media goes into a frenzy and sometimes it seems they just do this to spread fear into the hearts of the general public, everything I read on here for just the past 3 days is better than a tv forecast anytime, regardless of the varied opinions
hummmmmmm kind of skating on thin ice jollyroger...you could have a storm by that time in the bahamas next week...
sweet dreams ray
Thank you Storm, no problem Ray, no questions are stupid. Oh and Stormtop its guy not boy..lol..ok Lenny..j/k...its been fun time for me to call it a night. See ya all later.
i hear the grand canyon is nice this time of year :)
Hey i know Tim Deegan you must live in Jax aquak9.
hummmmmmmmmmmm ok
Crap,I don't want to spend a week indoors. I WANT TO GO TO THE BEACH. I live in the desert!!!!!
I was just kidding Storm..Actually calling me boy makes me feel young again..lol.
yes, jax, sorry but my hero since childhood has been George Winterling....
i bet it does lol
jollyroger, the weather in the Bahamas should be warm and humid. The system formerly known as tropical depression 10 approaching the Leeward Islands now should be gone by next week, likely leaving the Bahamas with good weather.
172. WSI
Hey StormJunkie. I believe I said Hugo was a CAT1 when it rolled through Charlotte, NC. It was a CAT4 at landfall I believe. You must live pretty near to the coast of SC. Hugo lost a lot of intensity before I-95 in SC. In fact, I think it was only a CAT2 at that point.
Based on the satelite pics, it looks like TD 10 is reforming. Now if it continues to move wnw and passes 75w then it would make landfall. I think it has three options.

1) It gets stronger and turns west toward Florida.
2) It gets stronger and turns out to sea like irene.
3) It stays weak, it skims the bahamas and moves nnw towards the carolina coast because there would be nowhere else to go (high pressures)

Current odds. . .

30/40/30

Everyone from SC to FL should watch this closely. it may be beginning to transform into a tropical storm again as we speak.
Link

looking better and better
Thank you Hawkeyewx, that's what I want to hear!!
This is not the same scenario as irene. This storm is already forecast to be strong by the ships and gfdl and those models do not take it north. Irene was forecast to go north by most models but it was weak so it stayed west like the bamm model said. This one is said by all models to go west
WSI-That makes since. I was and am in Charleston. One hell of a ride.

StormTop-Do you still think that X-TD10 will amount to nothing?
current models
Link
N. Florida to S. SC has not seen a storm in a long time. Overdue like The Big Easy if you ask me.
180. WSI
Yeah, I was just outside Charlotte at the time StormJunkie. The amount of damage to the area was unreal, and like I said, Hugo was only a CAT1 then. I can't imagine the level of destruction when that beast hit land. It was an incredible storm. We had over 8 inches of rain and were without power for ~15 days. I won't ever forget that storm.

welcome stormjunkie...

nice looking models...it looks promising for florida. theres gotta be one out there with our name on it!
thanks for the link mh12...I guess I oughtta go nail down the roof this weekend.... :(
WSI-I sat in a halway about 25 miles inland in a brick home and listend to what sounde like the world coming dow around us. I know this goes back to the earlier topic of morality anmd adrenaline, but after Hugo, I am still waiting to see one in the day light.
184. WSI
Hopefully none of them have Florida's name on them, or any state for that matter.
Thanks whirl.

No one got back to me on a frozen south this winter.

Last time we had real snow in these parts was the winter after Hugo. 8" inches in Charleston.
Just to clarify something. The last few runs by the GFDL do not take it to hurricane strength. It was forecasting that yesterday, but today it has changed to a more weaker senerio. Here it is....Link
Ooops wrong link..Here you go...Link
here we go again WSI....(j/k)

have u guys checked out the animated models of jeanne? very cool. anyone knkow where i can find more of those animated loops..but longer ones?
I JUST DONT KNOW THERE IS LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUNGD IT...it could look good right now and die in the morning..i will wait until it becomes a hurricane before i report my findings..its to risky to even think that right now a storm that comes back from the dead...
I know this goes back to a previous topic, but I just want to put myself out there so you understand where I am coming from while I am a newbie. To some extinct I do wish for natural disasters to occur while I am alive and even where I am. This is due to the adrenaline that the power of nature brings to us all wether it be in fear or intrest, not because I wish ill to any one. The sad fact is though that I think the human race has become very self centered and deviant. Myself included. These disasters bring out the better side in most of us and it is an amazing thing to see an area country or race come together and work as one. Remeber Mt. Saint Helens, Andrew, Pear Harbour, The world series qauke in Cali, and 9-11. We are better people in the face of a challenge.
The remnants of TD 10 do indeed have dry air surrounding it, specifically to the East. This will result in TD 10's remnants evolving into a smaller scale tropical cyclone, if it survives. With a small circulation and core (if it survives) it would be subject to quick changes in intensity, for the stronger or weaker.
If 'TD 10' stays weeks and to the south, the BAMMs might be right--go through the Florida straits and into the Gulf.
George Winterling is great, as is Patrick Prokop from WTOC in Savannah. I remember when Tim Deegan had his first broadcast, he was *so* nervous. Ray Boyland before Tim Deegan was a lot better.

Synopically speaking of course.
I am just worried that if 'TD 10' or anything else approaches Florida--with all that 90 degree water around, a hurricane could EXPLODE if it had favorable upper air conditions.
stormtop- all the activity in the carribean really died. nothing is going to happen, no?
sorta like charley, yeh that scares me to. except it could be worse because of the gulf stream
No one should take the models seriously right now. The models said that Irene would make landfall around SC then NC and they were wrong. They got it wrong until it was dangerously close to land. We should all take the models for what they are. unreliable. That's why the Weather underground puts in big letters " Subject ot large errors, do not use for planning purposes".

I think anywhere from Myrtle beach, SC to Key west,FL should monitor this closely, if anything develops.

I'll be writing in my blog tomorrow(If I don't have to work much). anyone intrested should visit it tomorrow.
no whirlwind not this week ..all hell will break lose next week though...
Correction to large errors.

Good night.
i agree weathewatcher about the computerts i dont trust them at all....
This is the beauty of Mother Nature, no matter how hard we wish we can not make it and like stated earlier we are lucky if we can predict it 50%of the time. My moto since Hugo has been never trust predictions. This is why I did not sit in traffic in Floyd ofr 20 hrs trying to evac Chs.

For what it is worth and from what I hear I think the intensity of Jose will model Irene, but not the track.
Or was it because I wanted to see the storm? I am not sure. The bottom line is that we only have ideas about where storms may go most of the time.
fighting and singles chat over stormtop or lenny
junkie.. where r u?
Charleston SC
jeff- stormtop and his..uhh..girl..were chatting privately b4.

any swf around 25 here? hehehhe

back to topic->
well just wanter to make shure
Low level center of TD 10 remnants still exposed from new convection that developed a few hours ago due to shear. Low level center is now moving nearly due West, approx. 260 degrees. We will need to wait through tomorrow to see if the remnants survive.
yes..a bit off topic tonite, but a fun bolg to read. all watchers and poster love the weather...keep on keeping us all informed...
No one should take the models seriously right now. The models said that Irene would make landfall around SC then NC and they were wrong. They got it wrong until it was dangerously close to land. We should all take the models for what they are. unreliable. That's why the Weather underground puts in big letters " Subject ot large errors, do not use for planning purposes".

I think models are another tool to help someone decide
what to do. There is no reason to trust them implicitly, but
they convey additional information to help reach a
decision. Without a model, everyone in hurricane country
would board up at every tropical storm or hurricane.

I'm not saying to let your guard down, but I am advocating
putting models in their proper place in the scheme of things.

While it would be monsterously arrogant to aver that mankind
has nature all figured out, our understanding has improved
since the Galveston hurricane by leaps and bounds.

We may dodge the bullet with TD10, but I still think it has at least a 70% chance to survive. Every system thus far in that general area that has weakened, has eventually regained strength so far in 2005, I don't think this one will break the status quo.

But everyone needs to realize, its only the middle of August, and sooner or later something is going to explode off of the southeast coast of the US. It's only a matter of time, especially seeing that most of the elements are in play already to sustain a cat 4-5.

And just as a sidenote of interest, the remenants of TD10 is projected to follow an Andrew like track.

If this year somewhat dwarfs last years number of named storms, whats going to happen in 2006?
can anyone tell me why storms in the tropic's see increased convection and night verses increased convection during the day over land//
whitewabbit, the temperature of the air does not change as much as the land, but it does change a few degrees between day and night. If the ocean is warm, thunderstorms can build up late at night from the temperature contrast between the warm ocean (which does not change much in temp between night and day) and the cooler night air. It is usually not as pronounced as thunderstorm development over land during the afternoon, but if you look at radars late at night around Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, you can frequently see thunderstorms building out in the ocean.
tks gaguy thats what i thought but wasn't sure
new to this weather blog no forcasting experience but quite abit first hand knowledge
just FYI whitewabit, there can be outbreaks of drama in this blog, best to lay low and not get involved when that happens.
Hey CFLWeather,

I was just noticing about the Andrew track myself. . . and that has me worried. ANYTHING, whether a tropical storm or even depression that can get into the waters near the Bahamas or even the Florida straits is going to explode!

Quick history on Andrew:
Andrew was a strong Tropical Storm (60mph) at 0:00 GMT on August 22, 1992

By 18:00 GMT on August 23, Andrew was a category 5 hurricane!

Thats a drop in pressure of 72mb, and a sustained wind increase of 105mph, in less than 2 days!
Andrew

Now, im not saying that this blob of clouds in the Atlantic is going to be the next Hurricane Andrew . . . or even that is it going to form into anything of consequence. Just that someone along the Gulf Coast (or FL-Atlantic) is going to get whacked with an intense strom. Remember, we only has 2 Hurricanes this year (before Irene), and both were Major Hurricanes at a time of year that doesn't normally support such strong storms. I can only imagine if another storm made its way into the Gulf right now . . .

JV
As to the discussion on models and how they can fortell the future some wise persons have said the following:
"Oh! that a man might know The end of this days business ere it comes" (Shakespeare (Julius Caesar))
"You cannot plan the future by the past" (Edmund Burke)
"It is always wise to look ahead, but difficult to look farther than you can see" (Winston Churchill)
"Dont mistake a spreadsheet projection for a crystal ball" (anon)
But on the other hand...
"A good battle plan that you can act on today can be better than a perfect one tomorrow" (General George Patton)
damn here is wrote much when i leaved yesterday it was only 14 comments i come back and its 205
Posted By: STORMTOP at 09:36 PM GMT op 16 Augustus, 2005.
wellif i was so wrong we would be sitting here talking about a parade of storms coming off the african coast..we are not talking about anything because i said long ago not even the computers are nhc knew the dust was going to be extreme off the african coast...so stop trying to say im belittling everyone...if it wasnt for me you would have never known about the dust...why you thing i revised my prediction from 22 stormrs down to 16...i dont think that would be to hard to figure out now would it...he can look at the thing all he wants i just say it wont amount to anything because of the dryness in the air....

we are already by 9 and the worse months still have to come

i think there will be 18
btw stormtop you were wrong about Irene it was almost a CAT 2 hurricane and you thought it would stay a TS
Good morning all!! Alittle update on our friend former TD10. Storm is still being sheared apart this morning. It will try to make it into lower shear values by tomorrow, but persistent trough to the west of it does not want to let go. Still my thinking is tomorrow we may have a dpression on our hands again. Looking the long range models on this one. The GDFL has once again strenghtened this system, although not as much as earlier runs, and brings it towards Florida. Although if one looks carefully at the end of the run a trough will be heading for the E.coast at the same time, so it may bend towards the NW or N later. Again too early. Most models at this time do have this trough over the E.US, so this would tend to move storm more NW or N. We shall see this far out in time. Wave that came off Africa yesterday still looking healthy, but again to its north we have the infamous dry air, we will have to monitor this one and see what happens.
Here are the Predictions as of July 25, 2005, for the total storms to form in the atlantic.....

Moocrew--20
Alec--16
WSI--17
Deb1--24
Turtlehurricane--19
Canenut--16
K8ei--11
Toyotaman--18
Kjcanon--13
Cjnew--18
Isobar5--22
Hurricaneking--21
Corpuswatch--17
Emmyrose--12
Orionbarkwood--18
Stsimonsisland--16
Hootiethebooty--22
outrocket--14
Txweather--18
Raysfan--16
Orlandocanewatcher--19
Cherikem--20
And finally Mr. Stormtop--20
weatherboy 14
Nicolai 18

you forget me weatherboy :)
i'm currently monitoring the carribean sea and the gulf of mexico
I am not weatherboy. I think you have me confused with someone else. I wasnt even on weatherunderground then.
Anyway intensity forecasting is really difficult. I also thought Irene was barely going to make it to a hurricane, but the storm stayed just to the south of the westerlies for a few days which gave it enough time to strenghten. About a hundred miles north of where it was it would have never made it. This is why the intensity is always the hardest to predict.
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN... IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WHILE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
SINCE YESTERDAY... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO
PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.
weatherguy i was talking about a post posted a day ago not about you ;)
Good Morning.
Anyone from Central Florida check out my own blog.

Fredwx Link
Oh sorry..lmao..Stormtop calls me weatherboy, thats why..lol..
I'm going to work, but before I go I have to say this.

TD 10 is becoming better organized and will be a TD by the end of the day. after that it will have three paths in which it could take

1) Florida
2) out to sea
3) GA/SC coast

The odds as I see them are. . .

50/10/30

I will give an explanation later on in my blog giving the possibilities. Around 5:00.

Later
The models all forecast a big trough to be swinging off the east coast by the time TD10 may be approaching Bahamas/Florida, but while the models say a cold front will push into the southeast US(and stall there), the main energy with the trough should stay farther north and not dive southeastward. It will again be interesting to see how the whole thing plays out.
track of td 10

TD10 Track
morning peeps-

just checked out td10 and this thing keeps dying and firing back up.
i must say, it has a good chance of heading towards fl.

Stormtop- you up yet? that convection near the gulf that looked nice yesterday, i think is dead now?
that track is odd... just ran the gfs and nogaps and both have td10 taken out to sea, not hitting land
Hey Hawk. I posted this earlier on another blog....Also for implications down the road, if TD 10 develops. Trough that was forecasted to stall north of Florida is now forecasted to move further East and South over the state towards the beginning of next week. Models may start moving this possible storm more to the NW or N later in the period...The models are starting to dig this trough alittle farther south. I agree will be interesting.
Most of the main models have trouble even recognizing TD10. Even after Irene became a strong tropical storm the GFS continually tried to dissipate it.

The new set of BAM models, however, has shifted north after several runs of shifting south.
hey hey hey
Hawkeyewx, can you give me a link to the BAMM models? I've been able to track down the other models, but not that one.

Been reading the blog this morning, and it looks like I've got some neighbors from Jax on here...loved the comments about Tim "head-for-the-hills-we're-all-gonna-die" Deegan.
this storm will not hit land only the lesser antilles maybe but i think it will track north and follow the same path as irene and the storms before
I think we should worry about the storms that are coming over 2 weeks
spagetio, the link was already posted by pirateotobx a few comments above
really its going to hit flordia or nc 147257
Humm, my prediction of 17 storms obviously didnt make the list.

Hello everyone, will be back in a few mins to write down my first observations of the morning.
ya know what. Ive noticed alot of models are predicting a huge wave to come off the african coast and make it a big ass wave. about 120 hrs from now.

look at this also:

Link

near the end. I know it doesnt mean much, but most of them agree on this one.

if anyone is interested here is a page of different models
Link
Ok, there is no doubt it my mind that TD10 is TD10 again. Now just a matter of time till the Hurricane center says so too.

Irene. . not much to say about Irene.

And TD11. . i see it already out at 30w. . or at least i wish.
punk 11am and no depression what do you have to say about that
I said there is no doubt in MY mind. Give them till a later time this afternoon. The NHC is very conservative, and I think this time they are being TOO conservative.
maybe they want it a bit more organised and not that they have to say over 3 hours its no TD anymore
What part of Florida (if it even hits us) do you think will take the brunt of this storm?
I think it is just an open tropical wave now. I can't pick out any circulation.
look if the storm will develop it will go NW or even north the chance it hits land of the US is only 15 percent and only if it develops but if it develops over 72 hours then the chance is bigger
I can see the center of td10 here.



Link
Storm very unorganized right now. This will not be a depression until maybe tomorrow, shear values need to get to about 10. Right now they are still 20-30. Evan unfortunately I couldnt even guess on the Florida thing right now.
You do see the center. I'm not the only one right?
Yes Evan excellent analysis. Looking at this today it looks less organized then yesterday and could almost be an open wave today. Hard to find center at this point.
where you see that how fast the shear is?
THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.
They have the floater on it. So thats how I see a small weake center.
It is difficult to see the circulation because it is currently located underneith the convection. May not be impressive convection, but its still convection over the center of a circulation in a tropical environment. To me, that sounds better than a circulation with no convection like yesterday.
The low level center seems to be covered by the convection
Current shear values Evan...Link
I agree punk.
Shear looks between 5 and 10 to me.
Well IMHO it looks less organized then yesterday. But as I stated yesterday, shear values will not weaken until Thursday, so development will not be possible until then.
The exact center may be difficult to pick out on the satellite loop, but the circulation is very easy to see. A couple guys have suggested it may be an open wave or close to it, but I have no idea what you are looking at.
Yes Evan you are correct..lol..They must of just updated it. I didnt get a chance to look at new one yet. Well thats a good sign for developement then.
Shear looks between 5 and 10 to me.
Hey Hawk..I said ALMOST an open wave...lol..
Well, Now that I look closer, I see a circulation, not very well defined I guess, but i do see it. You just can't really see the center because it is under the convection.
Just to get back to the shear map. Trough still needs to lift out or weaken. Because eventhough shear will lesson from the SW for a few days, it could encounter NE shear on the other side of trough.
Its open to interpretation Evan. To me the circulation was stronger yesterday. I feel the storm is weaker today.
And the trough is forecasted to weaken. So this system now has a very good chance of survival and being named. It it can continue its convection through tonight, I am 100% sure it will be a named storm, and be Jose.
and they dont sent a investigate aircraft until its closer to land
Time will only tell
Ok punkass I am holding to that..100% for punkass, mark it down people.
weatherguy,

I agree, the circulation does look weaker. However, it is still there and convection over the center can help strengthen the circulation once again.


So what do you all think about the system around 30W? Any hope for development here?
if you say it punkasshans then i believe you :-) before 5 PM its a named storm
Hmm most of the BAMMs have moved it mor to the north 120hrs out
Link
that storm at 30 is a bit low
Maybe reclassified as TD 10, I wouldn't go that far just yet. Maybe tomorrow.
I really like that 30W wave. Again the only thing I dont like is that dang dry air. The models for the first time in awhile are very aggressive in developing a wave off Africa. It needs to gain alittle lattitude, but not too much or it will get into dry air.
haha, i didnt say it would be a named storm today! I said it if keeps its convection through tonight. . then it will be a named storm eventually. I didnt mean that they will come out and name it immediately. I mean that it will then have the chance to develop and reach tropical storm status because it will be in a good environment.
I still think the pressure has to drop a bit before it is reclassified. Currently, it is 1011 mb. I would say it need to be atleast 1009 mb, With a well defined circulation and convection first.
punk i agree with you i dont think they want to make the same mistake they did when they upgraded irene to a tropical storm and then had to redown grade her again..i think they are being to cautious i think there is a depression out there....
But it is also important to know that that pressure is estimated. It really could be 1009 right now and we wouldnt even know it.
Is it me, or is the reminants of TD-10 to the east of where everybody's looking? The recon schedule for today has the planes going to 28.8N 67.6W. If you look at the sat pics, there is a great deal of convection (another wave?) located at 18N 57W. You can see a swirl at the recon location, but the other area to the SE looks a lot more impressive. Recon Plan for the day:Link
Latest Sat Pics: Link
Yes Hillsborough the Bamm is started to feel the effects of trough that is scheduled to move down towards Florida by the weekend. Just a good suggestion for people, especially the ones living in Florida. Read your local weather discussion on NWS website. They usually have a good one every afternoon. This gives you great insight on what the synoptic pattern will be in Florida and the SE. From that you can draw your own conclusions on what would happen to the various tropical storms heading our way.
stomrtop what are you thinking about that one 30W
weatherguy the tradewinds will start to let up and the dust will be gone by tuesday...increase tropical activity..they will have them lined up like a parade...i wouldnt be surprise if 3 developed at one time next week...
well it has a circulation which is good but the bad thing is the dust that is around it...i dont know if this will develop at all 147...
Oh the NHC made a mistake? Here comes Stormtop trying to make the NHC look bad again.
I do see some low level banding in the system, so there is some rotation in it. I guess. COLASC, that Lat/Lon is way too high, this system is not even north of Puerto Rico.
evan were are you not signed on
weatherguy in the latest data i have read i don t think the trough will come all the way down to florida..its expected to make it off the carolina coast and stall....
Ok Stormtop we will write that one down to. Stormtop says "dust gone by Tuesday." "Will have three lined up by next week." I got it. Thanks.
colasc, the new recon plan update now has the coordinates of where they think the spin east of the islands will be 24 hours from now... at around 19N 61W
Sorry, the Recon is for 19.2N 61.2W. However that area to the SE looks a lot more impressive. It seems like it might take the energy out of former TD-10
no weatherguy i just think they have cold feet right now...to be truthful i think there is #11 down there and for the life of me i dont know why they didnt upgrade it...it...unless they are waiting for the recon plane to get down there...i think they blew it..i agree with punk on this..
Oh ok. The thinking from our local forecast office changed this morning. They were first thinking trough would stall, but now they are thinking trough could come down as far as central Florida by Tuesday. Looking at latest model runs it does seem like trough is digging in more then yesterdays runs.
why they would it still isnt that close to land
I know Storm, I am just playing with ya. Who knows what there thinking is sometimes. But I do think they do a hell of a job down there.
lets wait till 5 pm
hawk thats not far from where irene was .......she was at 19.5n and 61.3w........
yes lol with there yellow cones lol...
NOUS42 KNHC 171500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
1. FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 18/1800Z A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0110A INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 18/1200Z C. 19/0000Z
D. 19.2N 61.2W D. 20.4N 63.4W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2130Z E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 12 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REDEVLOPS AND IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Posted on another site, but a good question. Anyone have an answer?

why does the Navy have 10L also listed as 90L ?(with a tropical cyclone information alert?)Link
I see that area that is ESE of TD 10, very impressive!
evan hello want to talk
can't now, jeff, it slows down my comp and I can't afford to do that right now.
http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/
They have both 10L and 90L likely because it is not an invest location, but also the remnants of an old TD. My guess is they just made a mistake and put it on twice.
evan 2 major things wrong with that......

1 to much shear in the area

2 to close to land to develop
STORMTOP: NOT TOO CLOSE TO LAND
about which one are you talking stormtop
It is in the Central Atlantic
there is a stationary low north of td 10 and if it keeps moving that way it will be shredded apart...it shows up good on ir and wv..
Stormtop, Irene was considerably farther north than 19N 61W. She passed near 23N 58W at one point.

With regard to the activity at 30W, I don't see much there at this point. It looks pretty much like a million other clusters of storms that routinely form along the ITCZ.
I got lost..at work..lol..Which one are we talking about Evan?
stormtop must have thought you meant the one in the carribbean
Central Atlantic, very impressive, weatherguy.
I like the one in the central atlantic too. . however as Hawk says, it looks much like any normal blob in the ITCZ. When the next frame of the 6 hr satellite look comes out, we will get a better look at the system.
No the remains of td 10 does have the possiblity to develop and is slowly getting better organized and the NHC is going to fly a recon into it tomorrow.The NHC said it is going to be moving into increasingly favorable conditions stormtop.The storm is also moving on a more westerly track then expected and the ridge to the north of it has become stronger then anticipated over last day or so.This is the only system to watch right now and has the best potential,everything else out there is unlikely to develop at all.
For one thing stormtop it isn't to close to land and it is getting better organized dispite the shear and is going to be moving into increasingly favorable conditions,ENOUGH SAID....
hmmz the islands there should prepare and at least get a TS warning
It isn't like it absolutely will develop but it has a pretty good chance though, and is already developing convetion around the center even with the current shear.
jed what are you talking about..
you are right hawk dont know what i was thinking..
Satellite I think that the low in the Central Atlantic Is more organized that TD 10's remnants.
jed are you talking about the blob s of haiti that will develop?
i think he is talking about the remains out TD 10
you know guys looking at the satellite loops off of africa the dust is beginning to clear....
Kiss Irene Goodbye.........
jed i agree with you and punk about td 10......
here comes the tropical development then.
we have a low ssw of the la coast that should bring us some prety good thunderstorms this afternoon....
even come on and talk its not going to hit ormound beach come off it
whats going to hit what?
Stromtop-I think you are right about the dust starting to clear, but will this be short lived or do you think it will clear for a decent period of time?

When do ya'll think TD 10 will be TD 10 again and when do you think it will be Jose?
Oh that one Evan. Yes that is the one I was talkind about earlier. I know Stormtop doesnt want to hear this..lol..but most of the models develop this one. It does need to gain more lattitude though if this was to happen.
yes evan i agree at 30 degrees if the dust slacks up we could have #12 easily by this afternoon....
nevermind, I am in Ormond Beach, Florida and was wondering what the probabilities of it hitting my area are. Ormond Beach is north of Daytona Beach by about 12 miles, give or take a few.
storm once its cleared then we are done with it ...we will have the big boomers coming off the coast now...it will get very busy for the nhc...
That would be interesting, if this develops, where does everyone think this could go?
Stormtop, i believe TD10 will be reinstated at TD10. . not TD11. So thus, we will only have TD11 from the system in the central atlantic. . should it develop.

I expect to be at TD12 by Wed of next week.
storm seeing this i think td 10 if it can get by the low to the north of it has a good shot of becoming jose and the one at 30 degrees has a great shot of becoming katrina...
The NHC just updated the 123 rule. . new storm expected to develop in the pacific just off the mexican southern coast.
Stormtop,

Weird. . we were thinking the exact opposite with Irene, now we are on the exact same page.
punk i already have it as td 10...the one i say that could become 11 is at 30 degrees now...
if TD 12 develops next week and were still not in the busiest month we will pass the 16
I knew a sexy broad named Katrina. Man was she hot. Sorry, that was off topic.
well when i think you are right punk im going to give you all the credit in the world...
Hello people......What do you guys think about the area in the southern central caribbean.....77.0 and 12.0,,,,,,looks interesting to me.....seems like something is trying to get its act together.....I know the shear is not the best.....but still looks interesting.....
yes weatherboy i commented on that earlier...if the shear slacks up you never know what can happen...
weatherboy. . i dont see it doing anything. the shear wont allow it. lots of convection, but its being ripped apart
wouldnt that suck for some people...having 2,3, maybe 4 cyclones coming after one another.

IF that happens would they have to follow each other, or can they go their own paths??
HELLO, WWHIRLWIND! REMEMBER FLORIDA?
evan come on stop it
whirlwind i will use the example of florida last year were hit 4 times...they usually follow the same paths ..we were hit by 2 a few years back....this atlantic right now looks like it wants to explode any day...
whirlwind,

They can go their own paths.. and actually to keep strong they would have to go their own paths. Hurricanes churn up the water, so cooler water would be brought to the surface. So for a bunch of strong storms to all be present at one time they would be almost required to go different paths.

HOWEVER: going difference paths is difficult. All of the storms would be governed by the same winds, and thus most likely follow the same path. However, fronts and troughs and other wind patterns can change quickly. So one storm might get picked up by a trough while the other might just miss it and go under. Basically, anything could happen.
evan come and talk with me and king please
The shear seems to be lessening....I got some visible loops off the colorado site....it just looks like some rotation at the surface....maybe not a complete closed circulation but trying too........the convection is dying down at the moment, so we will have to see.....you got to help me here, its august the 17, 2.5 weeks from the peek of hurricane season and I have nothing to peek my interest.....IM HAVING HURRICANE WITHDRAWALS......HELP ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Weatherboy-Where can I find a grapical FSU superensemble forcast?

Anyone else with good model links I would appreciate it.
yes I remember Fl. I live here.
I was just curious that the WAKE it leaves behind might make another storm veer off course.

Im waiting for next week, when Stormtop said "all HELL will break loose" aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!
Me too, what is hurricane season without Hurricanes?
You go to the Fsu site and pay some money....unless you have some connections......lol
Carribean storms are due to upper level low. No development there. Actually the carribean becomes less and less favorable for developement as we transition into Sept.
You don't count as a connection? You can not get it on the FSU FTP site?
where do you guys talk?
FSU forecasts here you go...Link
yes thats putting it mildly whirlwind...
since we are talking about plausable situations..

if 2 cyclcones were about to collide what would happen? would the shear they create kill each other or would they turn away?

thats a good one...?
weatherguy what are you talking about look at last year IVAN en 2 other storms came by in SEPTEMBER
here

Link
Hey weatherguy...I respectfully have to disagree......there isnt a upperlevel low in the caribbean.....granted there is flow headed in two opposite directions....there is NO COMPLETE circulation there....just west flow north of the area that im talking about and east flow over the area im talking about.....in the gulf of mexico, now thats an upperlevel low
whirwind i saw it happen on a another planet saw a few nice pictures and two hurricanes came together and were getting bigger and moved further
would someone like to try to answer my hypothetical question located at 1:03 PM EDT on August 17, 2005.
thanks---><---
Sorry weatherboy let me rephrase that upper level trough. Sorry not upper level low.
147257 -- i think the atmospheres would react differently. U talking about jupiter? or uranus....haha
147257..I was talking about tropical formation in the carribean. Ivan did not form in the carribean. Historically come Sept. and Oct. formation in the carribean is much less then in June thru Aug.
Well I'm back from an 8 day vacation and I come back to find a decaying storm heading out to sea and a weak low/depression ne of the islands. Just like when I left, amazing. Unfortunately unlike irene that never had a chance to hit land the remains of TD10 could have a chance to hit the US.
not to worry txweather .. as stormtop says..next week make sure your generator is filled up...muhahahahahahaah
Ok...I understand what your saying and I agree that should hender any development....but in the southern half which has westerly flow...the shear seems to be low enough and the satellite speaks for itself..granted that here recently the convection has died down....but if you get to a site that has a visible loop close up of that area, it looks interesting......
Ok cool weatherboy. I am at work and sometimes I lose myself in the flow here..lol.
Actually weatherguy from mid sept.on the W carribean is the favored area. I suspect that the relative lessening of storm development in the carribean during the peak times is more related to the fact that systems that earlier developed in the carribean develop earlier in the atlantic. So its not so much that the area is unfavorable, but that the rest of the atlantic upstream is more favorable than earlier.
Anyone have a good visible picture to look at that wave in the Central Atlantic?
Ok I now see what you are talking about weatherboy. Yeah this area is interesting in that the FSU model was trying to develop someting down here a few days ago.
Thanks for the great links to web resources over last several days.
td 10 is elongated but the convection is becoming much more pronounced...this one looks like the real mccoy...we will have to deal with jose soon...if they dont declare this a td by 5 pm something is definitely wrong with the nhc..
Ok mark it down..."if they dont declare it by 5PM something wrong with NHC."....author Stormtop..lol.
TD10, to me, looks to have lost all of its convection. its going to need a new burst if they are going to declare it a depression at 5pm
I am now watching that wave in the Central Atlantic For development.
If td 10 does hit the U.S. I will mostlikely be florida as you can see it kees going on farther west track hen expected and that is do to the high which also seems to be stronger than expected this is even further south than frances and has a potent high north of it and I think increasingly favorable conditions will allow it to be renamed td 10 or maybe even jose tomorrow.
They won't untill they fly a recon into it tomorrow besides,convetion if you have noticed,convective flare - ups are more intermittent with weaker systems.
The reson why stormtop I believe is that they won't bother if they are sending in a recon tommorow and I beleve they won't upgrade till they fly the recon into it.
i think katrina will be a cat 5.....one of 2 this season that i predicted...i think it will affect the gulfcoast sorry to say but thats my feeling now the way things are shaping up...
yes jed i believe that too...they need proof lol..
Jedkins look at the new model forecasts that are coming out. Trough that will be coming towards the E.US looks to be stronger and stronger with each run. Seems to dig aliitle farther south then yesterday. IMHO it looks like some of the models today are trending more north then west. Just wonder your opinion on this.
i am seeing in the satellite and water vapor lops the dust is finally leaving the african coast...you can see the clear areas that are starting to fill in that leads me to believe the trade winds have lessened and it may be this week the action starts ..i see a few waves ready to come off the coast...are you ready for some hurricanes!!!!!!!!!!
Look at Jeffs new post..Strong trough expected to move off east coast..I am not crazy after all..lmao..
weatherguy this trough you are talking about is not going to make it to fla..its supposed to stay over n and s car stationary..this is the latest data i have on the trough and that was 11am this morning....
Ok if you say so..We will see what happens...I am sticking with my forecast..lol..
the high is supposed to build westward thus fri and sat...temps are going to soar in the upper 90s...that is what you call a gloomy forecast...special weather statments will be issued for the blistering heat...
According to Dr. Jeff... remnants of TD10 has a good chance becoming Jose, but will have a hard time making it anywhere once it obtains Tropical storm strength...and if does that.....then theres a good chance it will go out to sea......later
i say its to early to tell yet what td 10 will do...
Well on Sunday I thought by Wednesday we would have a good idea about what 'TD 10' would do--but I still see a good low level swirl but plenty of shear to its west over the northern Leeward islands. The swirl's lasting three days is impressive, but I am always dubious about a storm's intensification being dependant on the shear that it is moving towards either weakening or moving away. So maybe by Friday we will have a better idea. I actually like the look of the feature in the central Atlantic--and that activity in the SW Caribbean is interesting too.

Also, in Oct the NW Caribbean is THE place for storms to form--more form there than anyplace else.
whirwind i forget which planet but it was nice to see the pictures :-) the wind speed where around 1000 miles hour

@weatherguy youre right about it dont forms in those months but i thought you ment every hurricane would leave the carribean
5 pm no depresion back :(

and finnaly a thunderstorm tonight at least if the pictures are right :)
i agree with stormtop that it way to early to tell what TD 10 is going to do