WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Remains of TD 10 reorganizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2005

The remains of TD 10 continue to spin and track west-northwestward at 10-15 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has continued to decrease, and is now near 10 knots. The reduced wind shear has allowed convection near the center of the storm to persist, and the satellite presentation has improved markedly today. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite show peak velocities below tropical depression strength--20 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that shear may continue to decrease, allowing TD to reform today or Friday. A Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled for 2pm EDT today to investigate.


If TD 10 does reform, it will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. Several of the global models forecast strong shearing winds to affect the system Sunday and Monday, and both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Monday. If the storm survives this shear, a strong trough forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday or Tuesday may induce a more northerly motion five days from now.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Irene is racing towards Iceland and will no longer be a tropical storm by this evening. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

everything has been erased ???

annyways what do you think about the wave at 75 W 12 N
It looks like "blobs" are popping up everywhere. I just noticed an interesting one just off the South Carolina coast right over the gulf stream. I know it doesn't have any organization at this time, but if this blob persists, and given how crazy this season has been already, I'd not rule anything out. If these blobs continue to pop up everywhere like popcorn, sooner or later, one's going to develop into something to keep a close eye on.
colacs i agree with that
This is a matter of patience. I have no doubt that we will have lots of tropical waves and hurricanes once the saharan dust and the wind die down.
that will be very soon
im very surprised the recon has not been cancelled..its a go i hope they find at least a tropical depression...
maybe they want to be sure when we know the results
love the trade winds have already slackened up and the dust is no longer a factor...all hell will break loose next week....
no dust anymore :S
damn the first hurricane will be a very strong one if it goes through the carribean
no dust 147 it has cleared the african coast...
im looking at 24.0n 94.0w it has a middle level circulation...temps are 90+ in that area...
that could be something too but i'm still watching 11 N 75 W
How is that upper level system to the WNW of TD10 going to effect it.
i cant really see the llc on xtd10 like i could the past few days it seems weaker or smaller or no there?
that is a upper low cause by a trough thats over land right now...that will only bring showers to your island no winds to speak of...you are in ther clear for this one..
NOT Clear....dust is still an issueLink
TD10 looks much better than it did last night. It does not look great, but it does look much better.
we will see when it investigate by the aircraft ;)
i agree that the convection looks better but i cant see as much spin anymore.
oh yeah i forgot aboout the invest....last night i thought they would cancell it but it cam back alive this morning. :!
That data is from sometime yesterday Queen
dust has cleared the trade winds have slacked up and the storms will be rolling off the african coast by next week....
What is wrong with the Meostat? I don't seem to be able to find any current images of the Africa coast?
I hope we have a storm soon. I need the work. Does that sound bad? :)
What links are you guys using to find out about the dust and other interesting storm tidbits? I am brand new to this storm watching and am enjoying the discussion. But it would be nice to see what you folks are referring to.

Thanks
this tropical depression if its one is elongated and that usually means its being sheared...
hang on storm
check this out storm african link..........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/ps/trop/data/rt/eatl-ir4-loop.html
Try these Jax, but keep looking at the other links people post here they have some good stuff.
Good for forcast models and other info Link

Sat imagery

Link
Page could not be found, did you just view that page StormT
Like Stormtop has said the water vapor loops are great for seeing the dust.
Hey JaxAdjustor - yep, it sounds bad! (another storm, you need work)

I can make a few suggestions for alternative careers . . .
:)
It is elongated StormT, but atleast the convection seems to be over the center which now looks to be around 19N. I do not know what I was seeing at 19N last night.
I'm surprised too that they didn't cancel the recon, but they didn't despite saying it was becoming disorganized.

Some clarification from yesterdays statements that I made that something that developes of the far east atlantic has little chance of coming west historically. I mean that if a system develops(becomes a depression) n of 15N in the far east Atlantic, landfall is very unlikely. Some people mentioned that don't most storms(80% is the number) come from african waves. Yes they do, but the later they develop the better chance of coming west.

Stormtop, that upper low in the gulf is nothing to be concerned about, its moving slowly west and will soon be on coast and its upper low anyway so devlopment is unlikely. There seems to be a potential for TC development in the gulf later in a few days, at least according to the models. I think they are keying in on the disturbance in the SW carribean. If such a system devlopes, tx and mexico are probably targets with LA having a slight chance.

I've seen many people mention blobs of showers they see. First off know the origin of these blobs. If they are from upperlevel lows ignore them(these lows do transition, but it takes time) and also look for persistence. Thats the key to a tropical system. Persistent convection over a area of low pressure. Thats the key to development.
yes storm i seen it
Actually visible not WV is the best for showing dust. Wv shows you the dry air, but to see the dust, look at a visible. WV is useful for showing mid to upperlevel features real good.
The visible is the best for seeing dust. WV vapor is good for showing dry air etc, and is more useful for showing mid/upperlevel features.
i know that tx i just mentioned it because i didnt see nothing interesting to watch...the td 10 they are wasting there time going down there they will not find a depression at least today....you never know what can happen in the gulf i have to much experience on the gulf and i seen to many strange things not to watch anything at this time of the year...tx i dont know how old you are but you should remember fern it started out as a blob caught everyone off guard..when recon went down to investigate they found a full fledged hurricane and they had to issue emergency hurricane warnings for the upper texas coast...thank God it was not a cat 5 it was a strong cat 1...never under estimate the gulf...
sorry double post.
On the WV does the dry air not look black and the dust look more brown?
TXweather hit it right on the head about upperlevel convection being potential development areas in the NEAR future.......I guess the models are telling the NHC that td10 has potential to perk back up......winds are relaxing and that it has potential to make landfall in the U.S. somewhere....at least more so than IRENE.....its very interesting.....and the caribbean is still firing up.....something is bound to happen there.....
Stormtop, I was a baby for fern, but heard about it. That was a real scare to TX(especially coming so soon after Celia). Alicia was a similar system and it did come from a transitioning system. Only time saved Galveston from a 4(Alicia was intensifiying and if it had another 6 hrs would have probably reached 4)
ok i was around for fern and like i say never under estimate the gulf...it can spring at anytime..
FERN????????? WHATS THAT.....LOL......I will have to go look that up......That must have been before 1975....lol
I still think that TD10 is beging to look more and more like a tropical system despite the shear. The convection is light, but it has been able to stay around the center.
lol weatherboy look it up it formed from a blob of showers to a full fledge hurricane...the satellites didnt even know what was going on until it developed into a hurricane...
storm they are wasting there gas going down there..they might want to check out the enviroment around the storm thats why they are going so they can get a feel if it develops later..
Thats why we have to always have to be alert. I remember the morning of Alicia that the outlook said development was unlikely. 6hrs later it was storm and 24hrs later a hurricane.
yes i remember that one to ..they gave up on it...then wham..
Looking at the Satellite of former TD10, I see multiple vortices in the disturbance. Not sure anyone is enough. But there seems to be a rotation at 18,59 and if the convection concentrates near that we might have a Td. I doubt it, but just grasping at straws. On the downside for the system we don't seem to have a nice well defined center like the other days.
Why do you feel they are wasting gas? The NHC doesn't just cover the CONUS..since 10 is nearing the islands & has persisted...remember Irene?...they need to get an accuurate handle on things so the respective gvt agencies can issue necessary alerts, make preps, etc...
Thanks for the links. Any help is greatly appreciated.

I hope you continue to survive FLSurvivor. Tx for the suggestion on other lines of work, but I greatly enjoy helping people get their lives back together after a storm. I just feel a little guilty rooting for another storm. :)
JAX, I am rooting for another storm too. It is what some people do, don't feel guilty. It is how you feel.
I am bored when there is nothing in the tropics.
LOL! I am poor when there is nothing in the tropics.
JAX, i am only an hour and a half south of you in Ormond Beach, Florida
there will be lots to do next week trust me the tropics will explode...i think it is close enough to land that if something was forming the radar out of san juan would be able to pick it up...this thing is not doing anything at the moment the flight could wait till tomorrow...
sorry guys there is no defined circulation in this blob right now..
tx, the rotation at 18N 59W is a decent little mid-level circulation and that is where the sparse convection is forming this afternoon, but the surface center has been shot out the west side and is very broad, very disorganized, and very weak. The surface flow under the mid-level rotation is now uniformly from the southeast, so there is no chance the surface center could reform there. Frankly, I think the remnant of TD10 may be taking its last breath.
I saw circulation. Right in the middle of the convection. You need to be close up to see it. I just watched the Tropical Update on the weather channel, when they showed The TD 10 area, I saw circulation!
That blob north of colombia seems to have some decent convection. Hey, did I sound like I knew what I was talking about? Glad to know ya Evan. I did some claims down your way last year.
My first look at former TD 10 since early this morning. Wow it looks terrible, you cant find a circulation. They definately would be crazy to send a plane in there, but like someone said earlier they may want to sample the environment to see if it does have some potential. Also they may just want to get a better feel for this and see if it does have some circulation or is now an open wave. We shall see.
Maybe multiple centers elongated NW to SE...Possibly??...LOL..Trying to make a stretch here..lol
i agree hawkeye and we have a plane going out there to give it cpr lol...
Weatherguy, like Evan, I thougth I saw a little circulation right in the middle of the storm. Certainly, the outer layers are not circular at all. Is it possible that what we are seeing in the small middle area is circulation?
Can someone explain shear to me? I have heard of two different kinds, verticle and horizontal. Which is worse for a storm? Also, what kind of shear has been happening in the atlantic?
Yeah could be Jax. It seems to be maybe two small circulations. One NW and one SE..not positive..
As I stated a few posts ago, the circulation in the southeast part of the system is not at the surface and will not work its way down to the surface. It will just fade away with time.
JAX ADJUSTER ARE YOU A CAT ADJUSTER FOR A COMPANY IN MOBILE?
Yep. How did you guess? Are you one in NC?
I'm in Fl panhandle. Been working Ivan claim since 09/17/04.
I think it has a chance, my local meteorologist says it does.
Kewl. I wish I was still working Ivan. Well, not if it was one claim. What company you with?
You go Evan! I like the way you think!!!
pilot
I have my name in with Pilot but I haven't worked for them yet. Did you get anything from Dennis the Dud?
Just more headackes. Working clean up on Ivan only. A few Dennis supplements.
At least your still making money. That is very good. I assume you are doing a daily rate. I got a few Dennis claims but it didn't do much. I still think we are going to get a major storm or two this year. Hopefully, very soon!
I am hoping for a storm to hit my area. I have always wanted to expreience the "thrill"
I have been in several storms Evan. We use to have hurricane parties in Mobile. However, anything cat 3 or bigger can be bad. I would NEVER recommend riding out a cat 4 or higher. The aftermath can be the worst part though. Going without electricity is no picnic. Cat 1 or 2 means a lot of people get time off from work (some paid) and a lot of rain.
I'm like you, feel there will be a large storm this year, maybe 2. I know that the panhandle cannot handle another major storm. Plus the claims would be too hard to work with all the priors, no money for adjusters.
Jax...maybe you should become a mortician. You could help the bereaved get over there loss. There's guaranteed business for you there. You're not at the whim of these pesky storms that could veer out to sea and leave you high and dry. If business got a little slow as a mortician you could always root for a small epidemic, flu outbreak, or a myriad of other crises.
If thhis does develop it is eather florida or the gulf coast that shoul watch the rest of The east coast of the U.S. looks unlikely at this time,IF it develops that is....It still isn't looking to great at the moment.
Evan, let me tell you from firsthand experience. Living through a hurricane is no thrill. Maybe if you have nothign of value to lose, but the reality is it's more like hell.
I am warning that this is mostllikely a Florida storm or it could enter the gulf if it actually develops into anything that is oh and jax a category 2 and even a 1 can be dangerous esspecially dont blow off category 2,the damage from frances.A category to jaxadjuster is not just a nuisance, it is a danger category 2's can cuase alot of damage so you have no Idea what you are saying by blowing off a weaker hurricane,I have been through frances and it is more than enough you could handle,even a tropical storm can cuase severe flooding a sirious situation that could result in death dont blow off even a weak system my friend,or you may find yourself getting hit by a destructive weaker system and then you may understand.....Also a category 2 is always a dangerous situation esspecialy if it is large like frances.
2 things made Frances dangerous. It was big and it moved very slow. It kept pounding and pounding and did a lot of damage.
jed quit being so serious the hting hasnt even developed yet...gee i hate to see you in a cat 5 the world would end lol....calm down take a deep breath and a chill pill...
sup Jedkins...long time no see

well I hope south FL gets some storms this year, only cat1 or 2 type. the damn gulf is busy, people in the peninsula better get ready..
I knid of went over top there a little but you bassically understand what I am saying now,I would not reccoment riding out anything stronger than 105mph even then if it dumps to much rain then you are still in trouble so I don't reccomend it at all because it is kind of at your own risk I mean if you are aware of a even a weaker storm begining to dump too much rain then leaving would be a good Idea,but it is all a your own risk over all and riding out even a weaker storm is not recommended,all storms are dsifferent.
Yes this eather a florida or a gulf storm and at the moment turning out to sea or the rest of the coast is unlikely...By the way,what do you mean by long time no see I havent been gone long anyway, my life goes well beyond this lol.
Jax, here's the definition of the 2 shears.

Horizontal wind shear means different wind direction(or speed) al you go along the same level. This is what is dangerous for planes(on a small scale). You are flying close to the ground and have a head wind keeping you aloft and suddenly it switches to a tail wind pushing you down. There are special radars at airports that warn of this.

Vertical windshear refers to difference in windspeed and/or direction in the verical. Usually 850mb or so to 250mb. This is bad for tropical systems since the tropicasl system strenghten if thunderstorms can form and stay over the center. With shear they can't.

Horizontal windshear on a large scale also causes what is known as vorticity. For example if you have strong east winds north of slower east winds, there will be a tendency of to have a spin. For a matter of fact the equation of vorticity is difference in n-s winds over an e-w distance- change of e-w winds over a n/s distance.
Stormtop I SAID IF IT DOES ANTHING THERE IS A CHANCE IT WON'T BE A BIG DEAL AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT IS,now yes this thing may not do much at all but if it does I will let you know where I believe will happen.
Thanks TX. Just so I understand...

If the horizontal wind speed up high is say 50kts. But the wind is in the same direction but slower down low say 40kts. Then this is referred to as verticle shear? Is that right? Is this what weakens the tropical waves causing the higher clouds to move out away from the lower clouds?

Hawkeye, you right I was just grasping for a reason to justify the recon. Though if thunderstorms did become concentrated around that midlevel center we could get developement. But still unlikely.

Also Hawk, I saw you said you were computer science in another thread. I thought you must be a meterologist, you have a good understanding of meteorology. You could always get a masters in Met. I knew several math/physics majors who went back to get their Masters in Met.
ok jed......i respect your opinion but just dont get to excited i dont want you to get a cardiac in here..
Yes jax you are correct, if they are from the same direction in you exampler that would give 10knts of shear. A storm could develop with that. The threshold is around 15knts.
excuse me i said that tex...
Does anyone know anything about the recon plane trip? When should we expect to find out? Is there a good website for this info?

THanks
storm they are wasting there gas going down there..they might want to check out the enviroment around the storm thats why they are going so they can get a feel if it develops later..
said what stormtop:)
Thanks TX. I've been scracthing my head wondering how verticle wind could be detrimental to hurricane development. It was verticle SHEAR. Now I get it.
the recon plane will investigate the area at 19.2n and 61.2w and around this general area about 4pm out time cdt...
scroll up one tx
about that flooding..

it really depends on where you live. im at the palm beach/broward border and even with frances+jeanne i had NO flooding around my home at all. maybe puddles but no mini pool.
...just had to get that said.
For the moment the remnants of td 10 is looking very poor right now, it was looking better organized last night.
Yes and that is why I mentioned it being at your own risk.
Whirlwind, Most of the precip was in the N and NE quadrant of those storms. The water is what did most of the damage where I'm at for Frances and jeanne.
Also if you want to see the shear maps look here
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds.html
many good maps of all kinds, low level, upperlevel, and shear
Good afternoon. First post. This TD has been consistantly inconsistant. What is the reason for this daily fluctuation?
Actually, here in Ormond Beach, we were in the NE quadrant of Frances and Jeanne, we didn't get that much rain. Some areas Flooded, but not terribly.
All together:

shear.
jed you are wrong i can definitely see a closed circulation now and convection tryint to wrap around it now...the ceter is very clost to 20.0n 60.0 w
Oh yes we did Evan. yes we did.
yea, I know about the quadrants...

Im trying to look at the sat, but Im having difficulites accessing the noaa.gov maps....?? WTF??
So, STORMTOP, could we have TD 10 once again?
evankisseloff

how far were you from the eys of those storms?
I think believe that it rained alot where you are but the drainage is very immpressive I live near Clearwater the worst we got from thost 2 storms together about 18 inches of rain,Jeanne was the worst here,80 mph winds 10 inches of rain,Frances gave us 8 inches and 65mph winds.
yes i think when they go out there they will classify once again a td10...the circulation is very easy to see...the depression itself is weak but we do have a closed circulation at the surface...
The rainfall rates were up to 7 - 8 inches per hour in the eyewall of jeanne which is very very high.
No way this is a depression!! Strong wave..period...How much you wanna wager Stormtop!!
An average hurricane rainband (convective that is) will produce rain fall rates of around 4 to 5 inches per hour but because they move incredibly fast they dont last that long but it depends on if you get a horizontal rainband that because of the movent of the Storm can sit over same area for a couple hours and can dump a foot of rain.
hey it works finally... does some idiot update those loops or does it automatically?? so many times there are double images in that loop...drives me mad

anyway...i cant see no circulation, just one elongated storm
That is when the flooding from a hurricane can get very dangerous.
Here's an update on recon. so far nothing but SE winds. A few of the winds were around 25, but the pressure is too high for anything.
STormtop-- what happened to that potential storm in the gulf? rightnow theres nothing there...looks like it was just an upper level low?
its funny how the weather channel says" the islands will get some **strong** winds from td10.. LOL WTF? 25-20mph winds are strong to you.. haha
i didnt say anything whirlwind about a storm forming in the gulf..at least not today..and yes there is a closed circulation out there..
hmmm..let me put on my bifocals and search....
I know people who had 40+in during claudette in 79. Amazing to get that much rain.
tx i dont know where you getting your info from lol the recon havent even left yet....
txweather

what site did you get the info on the recon?
there's a trough in front of the remnants of TD10 it's a sure deal TD 10 is going to die today for sure.
as of last report they were at
17.8,61.7 and were heading westbound.

here's a link. Its ftp so watch out for slow comps ahead.
ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Recon-A/
the weather channel tex and a friend of mind at the nhc..4pm is there schedule time to leave...
tex from that positoin why would they be headed west...anyway the weather channel does no nothing about what you are saying neither my buddy from the nhc...we will see later..
The regular meteorologists that do the tropics on the weather channel say silly comments like that because they don't know that much about tropical systems at least some that is,nut Only when the hurricane expert comes on you get any real Idea what is exactly going on.
lol tx those quads put them over land in the virgin islands...i would think they would want to fly into the storm and i would think they would be moving north where all the action is...just food for thought
Stormtop, that must be another mission. Perhaps they scheduled a 0z investigation incase it developed. If they did they can save their time and relax in the carribean.

Whats funny is usually they go on the recons from a carribean base, this time they left rom Biloxi.
stormtop

wasn't the recon plane leaving at 3:00edt
I meant for recons in this area they usually go from the Carribean(st croix I think). I realize the home base is biloxi usually.
no wabit 4pm cdt
The recon earlier had been further east, they were on the westbound leg.
come on tx the quars you gave out if the were travelling west they would be moving into the caribbean...how dumb do you think i am...
I know your not dumb Stormtop. I report them as I have them.
i can't find any recon for today on the sites that i use
wabit it is scheduled to leave at 4pm cdt...they fly out from keesler in biloxi and also roosevelt roads in puerto rico...
Stormtop says there is a new storm developing somewhere in the tropics everyday. That way he may get it right oneday..LMAO...
stormtop

my last post was more for txweather
lol@weatherguy
I still love ya Storm..lol
i know cause i save your butt all the time lmao
tx must of disappeared........
i dont think this is gonna be classified today
Sorry needed break. The recon is now at 17.7,63.5 and headfing home.
URNT11 KNHC 182000
97779 19524 50177 63500 30500 08014 08061 /3193
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 26
LAST REPORT.

Go to the link i provided you'll see it all.
I have a VERY interesting piece i just found regarding the current tropical suituation. It is Joe Bastardi from accuweather. click on the point counterpoint link at the bottom.Link
txweather

i did go to the link you gave but it didn't work just searched for a file it couldn't find
Sorry wabbit, don't know why. Perhaps too many people on or something. I'm under the impression its not real freindly site. It practically freezes my comp. For the latest ob you can go to the hurricane centers recon section too here it is

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT1.shtml?

hope this helps. but really there was a recon he's heading home now. no storm
lol tx you said they flew out of biloxi...so they are going back to roosevelt roads i assume...
no idea really. but I must go. later
Save my butt..on what???..lol...IF listen to you I would have to run for cover every other day..lol
stormtrop, since u r always wrong, i must ask u, where on earth did u learn to forecast?
i dont know turtle im always wrong i guess you have to tell me ...
i meant in forecasting
So...does everyone agree that this storm will not develop over the next few days? If so, I am happy...... Might be a good south beach weekend!
i think it will develop
I dont know, if Joe Bastardi is concerned over it, I would be concerned, He is usually pretty good with tropical systems.
he is basically seeing it starting to develop and will make its way to the bahamas and sit there
I dont like any systems making it to the bahamas and sitting there to gain strength, we have 90+ degree water off the coast of S FL Right now.
tell me turtle im listening..you have my undivided attention..
LSU Hurricane I went to the link and watched the video and he says that they will find a TD when the plane gets out there and the models have it blowing up to a full fledge storm in the Bahamas but following Irene's path. I jst don't agree I don't see it being classified as a TD today.
This storm may or may not develop, its pretty much a coin toss. I agree it looks less impressive, but the thing you have to remember is that when thunderstorms continue to surround the center of circulation (yes, it does have a center of circulation), development is a possibility.

It is going through small weakening and strengthening cycles as can be noticed from satellite from the past 72 hours. It is just trying to deal with the harsh enviornment it was in, and it could not strengthen past a certain point because of factors that were limiting it from doing so. But, the shear is subsiding, and it is moving closer and closer to the very warm water surrounding the Bahamas. If this storm is given the chance to sail through a very favorable enviornment for development, I think explosive growth is in the future for it.
It won't development. Here is the latest outlook:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
when will we get the update on the flight into ?td10?
There it is in black bold print so everyone say good-bye to TD 10 it's now dead.
wasn't that the update from the flight Tropical Expert just posted?
GOOD NIGHT GRACIE.
newinfl, there is no update. It's right there in the outlook. That is the update that the aircraft sent to the NHC.
Dr. Masters,

How long does it take for you to respond to emails? Just wondering.

HURCAN
wonder what is Dr. Masters thought on former TD 10?
To Stormtop: Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico closed a few months ago.
well see ya'll later I'll be back when there's something in the tropics to watch/talk about but with TD 10 dead and gone it's rest time until the next system.
loved the link. Mr Bastardi's kinda cute. I mean, since there's nothing to look at out my window...boring HOT weather...not even a thunderstorm....yawn.
yes he said it was going to develop just like i did...why dont you guys jump on him like you did me.....lol to afraid huh..i figured that....
Well It just didn't develop YET

SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN...HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


This does not mean that this wave will just die, it just means that it will be in limbo at least until it enters favorable conditions.
Well the recon plane said that TD 10 has gone ca--putt....bye bye.......im switching my full attention to the caribbean.....for august the 18th,,,this sucks.........
Yes it was...
It will not develop until it hits the more favorable conditions. Conditions get better by the second(even though it does not look like it) and by this weekend, it should develop. remember, the NHC did not say it would not develop later, the recon said that at this time it was not a tropical depression.
HEY..stormtop...I looked up your storm---FERN----it was a depression for 4 days....it seems to me thats not sneaking up on anyone....now it did strengthen pretty fast...but nothing that I havent seen....But I did learn of the storm....never heard the name...
you all need to read Dr. Masters new post
OK weatherwatcher007, but when it says "degenerated into a tropical wave" there is no longer an area of low pressure and there is no evidence of a circulation.
already did......its depressing
Dr. Masters says it's dead & will rise no more and I read on another site where it was said that it wouldn't have enough time to develope cuz by sunday it would be in a area of high shear so some of ya'll need to just exhale & let The wave that was TD 10 go and have a memorial service if thats what some of you need to do for closure.
Stormtop......I'm not really clear on your forecast for TD10? What is your present forecast for development, intensity, and direction? I like to add your opinion to all the info that I look at. I use NHC, Dr. Masters, and others on this board...in that order. I do find your opinion a very strong one on this board in the sense that it's good to go against what you think. But I am serious in asking. Please tell.
Hey you guys if you read Dr. Masters new post it explains that TD 10 is gone and will be moving into an area of high shear.....td10 is gone.....everybody lower their heads and let us pray......
Cosmic Events LOL you are wrong (but not really) for saying that to stormtop but thanks for saying out loud what i was thinking in my head you are my new hero! (and i feel the same way you do it's good to listen to StormTop and go with the opposite of what he feels).
will you lead us in the prayer weatherboyfsu?
When it hits the favorable conditions around 69w then it will develop. Right now it is difficult and nearly impossible to predict how strong it will become once it hits the 85+ degree sst's. I will start writing my in depth analysis on my blog. anyone intrested in this wave and the carribean visit my blog today.
Yes that water is going to be a big factor if it can hold together until it nears the Bahamas.

We all already knew remenants of TD10 wasn't a tropical depression, this is pretty much all NHC stated. We'll have to wait and see.