The remains of TD 10 continue to spin and track west-northwestward at 10-15 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has continued to decrease, and is now near 10 knots. The reduced wind shear has allowed convection near the center of the storm to persist, and the satellite presentation has improved markedly today. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite
show peak velocities below tropical depression strength--20 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that shear may continue to decrease, allowing TD to reform today or Friday. A Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled for 2pm EDT today to investigate.
If TD 10 does reform, it will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. Several of the global models forecast strong shearing winds to affect the system Sunday and Monday, and both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Monday. If the storm survives this shear, a strong trough forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday or Tuesday may induce a more northerly motion five days from now.
Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Irene is racing towards Iceland and will no longer be a tropical storm by this evening. The rest of the tropics are quiet.
Dr. Jeff Masters